09-03-16 |
Miami (OH) +28 v. Iowa |
|
21-45 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 39 m |
Show
|
5* MIAMI OHIO+ over Iowa CFB LETDOWN THEORY OF THE WEEK BDS
|
09-01-16 |
Tulane v. Wake Forest UNDER 43.5 |
|
3-7 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 50 m |
Show
|
|
01-11-16 |
Alabama v. Clemson UNDER 50.5 |
|
45-40 |
Loss |
-103 |
128 h 3 m |
Show
|
5* Alabama Under the total Champiomship Best Bet Good Luck...BDS
|
01-02-16 |
TCU v. Oregon -103 |
Top |
47-41 |
Loss |
-103 |
59 h 11 m |
Show
|
|
01-02-16 |
Kansas State v. Arkansas -12.5 |
|
23-45 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 20 m |
Show
|
|
01-02-16 |
Penn State v. Georgia UNDER 43 |
|
17-24 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 60 m |
Show
|
010216 Tax Slayer Bowl 4* Penn State/Georgia UNDER the total @ 12:00 Eastern Here two interesting units, the Nits settling under coach Franklin carrying a 7-5 SU record losing 3 straight to end the season vs. Michigan State (16-55 A), Michigan (16-28 H) and Northwestern (21-23 A). Penn State did not beat a Class “A” or Class “B” unit this year, the loss to Temple in Philadelphia was a telling factor for experiences to follow. Georgia completed a 9-3 SU season and considering coaching issues and injuries, the ‘Dawgs showed very decently, considering they won 4 straight to end the season versus Kentucky, Auburn (A), GS and Georgia Tech (A)…the road wins gives an improved picture of their capabilities. The Tech win to end the season was a revenge situation, holding the Bees to 7 points. GA held the last 4 opponents to 10 ppg. Coaching structure now has Richt out, McClendon interim for this game, before HC Smart takes over. Georgia is 6-4 SU L10 bowl games, 6-4 ATS (5-4 ATSF). Penn State shows with the defensive player of the year in Nassib and the #14 stop unit (324). However, they falter numerically on offense rating #106 and #110 in total offense (2014 & 2015), now you understand the firing of OC Donovan…QB coach Rayne will run the offense here. The problem on offense has been in an out QB Hackenberg 53.3% completion scores (2,386/16/5). OVERALL…Can’t assume this will be a wide open game, as both will must likely look to control the tempo, and work of a positive field and turnovers. With that in mind I am more inclined to go UNDER the total of 43, despite some movement the other way this morning…Remember, both are very challenged extending drives offensively, as Georgia is ranked #118 in 3rd down conversions at .313…Penn State #125 at .281. From situational standpoint must consider the changing coaching scope at Georgia. This is usually not a good way to approach a bowl game with that uncertainty in some players’ minds…Techs have Georgia 6-0 UNDER, 8-0 UNDER vs. winning units and 5-1 UNDER against non-conference. The Lions come 4-1 UNDER L5, 21-8 UNDER vs. non-conference types.
|
01-01-16 |
Ole Miss -7 v. Oklahoma State |
Top |
48-20 |
Win
|
100 |
35 h 55 m |
Show
|
10* Ole Miss -7, not higher over Oklahoma State Don't mean to raddle anyone, but this will be a close call from the spread standpoint. The Pokes are 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in their last 5 bowl games dating back to 2010 all under the leadership of HC Mike Gundy. As a 6-1/2 underdog they defeated Washington last year SU 30-22 in the Cactus Bowl..So, this is a step-up in class via the Sugar Bowl which is all SEC country. Ole Miss recent taste of bowl action in the last three years..2-1 SU/ATS. The 42-3 loss to TCU in Peach Bowl has the Hugh Freeze group sky high! Only negative is their very best defensive player is out of the game as you know per the news releases recently. The Rebs started strong 4-0 SU beating Alabama, but then lost on the road at Florida, Memphis(?), and Arkansas...Easily, the unit has an issue with focus. But, that will NOT be the case today knowing the opposing talent, the conference and the chance to pick up a DD win (9-3) season is a glaring issue. The Rebs finished nicely beating and covering vs. LSU and Mississippi State...two hated rivals. SEC BOWL FAVS show 4-0 ATS going into Saturday. Oklahoma State (10-2) only lost two games, both at the end of the season to Baylor and Oklahoma. The Pokes lead with their passing game QB Rudolph as the unit ended #10 in the NCAA throwing the pigskin. The schools last played in 2010...Ole Miss 21-10. For the Rebs to cover they will need their rushing attack to control the tempo and field position, and of course, the legs of QB Kelly will be needed. OKS is 2-7 ATS off a SU loss, 4-10 ATS after surrendering 450+ yards and 3-7 ATS off ATS loss. The Rebs are 1-5 ATS off a SU win, but you can discount that item, considering the TCU debacle last season. Ole Miss comes in 24-8 ATS non-conference, 3-0-1 ATS (January), 6-1-1 ATS at neutral sites and 4-1 ATS in BOWL games. This should be a high scoring, as I remember the opening total was 67. In closing, history has shown that teams relate more closely to current reality and for the Pokes losing BB conference game...ouch! So, we are riding OLE MISS!
|
01-01-16 |
Notre Dame +6 v. Ohio State |
|
28-44 |
Loss |
-115 |
4 h 5 m |
Show
|
|
01-01-16 |
Tennessee v. Northwestern +9 |
|
45-6 |
Loss |
-115 |
23 h 12 m |
Show
|
5* NORTHWESTERN +9 over Tennessee The 'Cats come out of the surprising Big-10 with a 10-2 record, and the catalyst could have been the 40-10 loss to Iowa early. Coach Fitz has done a great job, and stands to be the first coach in NW history to win 11 games. The key for the Wildcats is their stingy defense, and with Vols inconsistent offense, I believe we have a great shot of not only covering but winning SU. This situation means more to NW, so they will have the EMOTIONAL EDGE. Also, UT is 1-7 ATS off a SU win of 20 plus. Finally, the 'Cats show 4-1 ATS in bowl games...NORTHWESTERN.
|
12-31-15 |
Oklahoma v. Clemson +4 |
|
17-37 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 56 m |
Show
|
|
12-31-15 |
Houston v. Florida State OVER 56 |
|
38-24 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 9 m |
Show
|
|
12-30-15 |
NC State v. Mississippi State UNDER 59.5 |
|
28-51 |
Loss |
-105 |
4 h 42 m |
Show
|
3* (251/252) NCS/Mississippi State UNDER 59-1/2-60 I just check the number has hit back to 60 numerous stores, that supports our side of the ledger. Granted when you survey the recent bowl activity, OVER seems the appropriate percentage angle. However, last year when the SEC Bulldogs played in a bowl game vs. an ACC unit, they not only lost but were torched defensively. Coach Mullen has made it a point in bowl preparation to enforce "focused" approach on the defensive side of the bowl, because of the losses and gap issues vs. SEC types. NCS has one of the best defenses in the country and just might confuse DAK today, enough to "slow" red zone penetration. With some added and the line moving up...LOW!
|
12-29-15 |
Baylor v. North Carolina OVER 68.5 |
|
49-38 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 6 m |
Show
|
|
12-29-15 |
Air Force +7 v. California |
|
36-55 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 32 m |
Show
|
122915 (241) 5* Air Force+ (8-5) over California (7-5) @ 2:00 Eastern Armed Forces Bowl…BDS Here we go, might type of football game a running unit (Air Force) vs. a passing attack (California). Air Force came into the season with some high hopes, but key injuries (Romine) took their toll. The Falcons went 3-3 SU in their early going, while the Golden Bears won their first 5 games. After Air Force went on a nice winning streak in the MWC, but dropped a heart breaker in the championship game to San Diego State. California after that perfect run fell off losing 4 straight games. So, we find both units here in the Military Bowl. Looking back, California destroyed San Diego State in September, but the Aztecs were somewhat flat after blowing out San Diego University. Cal leads the all-time series 6-2 SU with Air Force 1-3 SU in the Military Bowl. To win SU the Falcons will need to control the football throughout as the Golden Bears are 7-0 ATS when scoring 30 plus a game. Still, the Cal defense is very forgiving as they given up at least 24 points a game in the majority (all but 2) games this season. Cal comes 4-14 ATS on grass, the Falcons 6-1 ATS in non-conference games. Finally, the Golden Bears a PERFECT 0-5 ATS vs. winning football teams…TAKE THE POINTS!
|
12-26-15 |
Nebraska +6 v. UCLA |
|
37-29 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 44 m |
Show
|
|
12-26-15 |
Tulsa v. Virginia Tech OVER 61.5 |
|
52-55 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 17 m |
Show
|
|
12-26-15 |
Miami (Fla) v. Washington State OVER 62 |
|
14-20 |
Loss |
-110 |
16 h 2 m |
Show
|
|
12-26-15 |
Connecticut v. Marshall -5 |
|
10-16 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 41 m |
Show
|
|
12-24-15 |
Cincinnati v. San Diego State -2 |
|
7-42 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 40 m |
Show
|
|
12-24-15 |
Middle Tennessee State v. Western Michigan OVER 64 |
|
31-45 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 16 m |
Show
|
5* Western Michigan/Middle Tennessee State OVER 64 First off, they don't play defense in the USA, combined the offenses average 69 points per game. Thus far in 2015, defenses have been lacking in post season...so, go HIGH! Good Luck.
|
12-23-15 |
Georgia Southern +7.5 v. Bowling Green |
|
58-27 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 31 m |
Show
|
5* GEORGIA SOUTHERN +7-1/2 over Bowling Green Yesterday we split out, because of the Temple debacle. However, we are using just one side in the Wednesday game plan for the bowl card. Actually, I'm ticketing the school who I believe has the most dangerous and under valued offense on the playing field in either bowl game today. Take Georgia Southern to trade points with Bowling Green in a real nail bitter, and we thank the lines makers for the complimentary +7-1/2 to boot! Good Luck!
|
12-22-15 |
Toledo v. Temple -2.5 |
|
32-17 |
Loss |
-120 |
5 h 27 m |
Show
|
|
12-22-15 |
Akron +7.5 v. Utah State |
|
23-21 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 35 m |
Show
|
4* Akron +7-1/2 over Utah State Taking the value here with the number and the running game of the Zips. Utah State seemingly in a home game scenario finished the season in a negative set, because thought after early success they could win their conference, not so! Critical here for the traveling unit is their mindset, mindset and coach Holtz. Akron finished 4-0 SU/ATS running for 229 yards in their last game vs. Kent. Granted UTS is a more difficult class of defense and will show up today, but they much mental to overcome based on recent results. UTS is 3-7 ATS in non-conference game, while the Zips are 5-0 ATS L5 after holding an offense to under 100 yards on the ground...WIRE JOB!
|
12-19-15 |
San Jose State v. Georgia State OVER 55 |
|
27-16 |
Loss |
-108 |
10 h 8 m |
Show
|
|
12-19-15 |
San Jose State v. Georgia State +1.5 |
Top |
27-16 |
Loss |
-110 |
24 h 47 m |
Show
|
10* Georgia State+ over San Jose State @ 7:00 Eastern CURE BOWL...BDS The first ever Cure Bowl has San Jose State (5-7) traveling a great distance. SJU did defeat NMU last time out, but vs. other FBS units...a horrid 9-28 SU in the past. GSU a starter program going back to 2010 finished the season on a 4-0 SU run. And, they were very kind to their backers going 8-3-1 ATS. Fundamentally, they average 6.3 yards per play. Granted the Spartans come out of the MWC a more highly rated conference, but they did not fair well this season and seem to give up at the end of games...I doubt very much they are interested going to Florida around the holidays, despite the warm weather. The EMOTIONAL EDGE here is all GEORGIA STATE...Look for an outright upset!
|
12-19-15 |
BYU v. Utah -2.5 |
|
28-35 |
Win
|
100 |
30 h 35 m |
Show
|
121915 3* Utah (204) over BYU @ 3:30 Normally, would not go after this type situation considering the overall coaching exodus at BYU with legendary Mendenhall and the OC going to Virginia…What does this tell the recruits for the Cougars? Utah has not played well down the stretch losing some really tough games, being hurt by passing games (#96th YA) with tall and talented receivers just check out the numbers from the UCLA, USC and Arizona games. The Utes too, like the Cougars have been hurt by injuries, however, each show 9-3 SU BYU with the more productive 8-4 ATS mark coming into the “Unholy War Bowl.” The last meeting between these two was in 2013…@ Utah, Utes 20-13 winners…Utah has won 5-of-6 SU in the series. Overall the series has been closely contested with 14 of the last 17 games decided by less than a touchdown. This season when you check out PF/PA…very similar… The mental here because of the coaching changes for BYU favors the Utes…and SOS, FPI too…UTAH by 4.
|
12-19-15 |
Arizona v. New Mexico +8 |
|
45-37 |
Push |
0 |
43 h 40 m |
Show
|
5* New Mexico + (202) over Arzona @ 2:00 Eastern College Bowl Game of the Week...Saturday We clearly had a difficult choice between the Lobos and one other squad as our game of the week, however, I am sticking with the aforementioned considering they are at home will not give up even if behind in the 4th quarter. As we enter another wacky bowl season, the public should be highly aware of the tendency to leap in the early sets to find themselves only behind when the more quality games come about. Here the line came -11-/-1/2 or -11 to start, pending your outlet now down to -9 or -8 (Thursday) in most stores on the Strip. Arizona (6-6) despite their 1-4 finish are the more talented unit and will have QB Solomon ready to start. However, AU will be missing 4 starters and have injuries in depth positions coming into action. On the other hand, NMU playing out of the MWC is lacking in SOS, has not played well historically vs. the PAC-12 (0-6) and have issues with special team units. Granted this is much to swallow as a 5* selection, but NMU has the definitive EMOTIONAL EDGE considering how they played physically and mentally at the end of the season. We especially, consider their ability to run the football and control the clock here. Arizona is 1-4 ATS in post season bowls, but 3-1 ATS recently laying singles. Still, NMU will not give up and play this to the wire...TAKE THE POINTS!
|
12-12-15 |
Army v. Navy -21.5 |
|
17-21 |
Loss |
-100 |
4 h 7 m |
Show
|
5* Army+ over Navy It's not often that I go against Navy, but this is is a great situation. Just based on talent and offensive productivity it would be easy to pencil in the Middies. Granted Army is in a long series losing streak, but in 3-of-4 the have been highy competitive losing by 7, 4 and 6. Also, the current Navy players are aware of coaching changes, and have a bowl celebration locked up! THIS IS THE BOWL GAME FOR ARMY...The Cadets have cashed 3/4 in the series, and looking back face their highest priced ticket since 2007...+19-1/2...TAKE!
|
12-12-15 |
Army v. Navy UNDER 50 |
|
17-21 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 39 m |
Show
|
|
12-05-15 |
West Virginia v. Kansas State +6 |
|
23-24 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 34 m |
Show
|
|
12-05-15 |
Florida v. Alabama -17 |
Top |
15-29 |
Loss |
-106 |
149 h 23 m |
Show
|
|
12-05-15 |
Temple v. Houston -5.5 |
|
13-24 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 28 m |
Show
|
|
11-28-15 |
Connecticut +12 v. Temple |
|
3-27 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 58 m |
Show
|
|
11-28-15 |
Alabama -14 v. Auburn |
|
29-13 |
Win
|
100 |
32 h 45 m |
Show
|
|
11-28-15 |
UTEP v. North Texas -2 |
|
20-17 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 1 m |
Show
|
4* NTU -2 over ULM @ 3:30 Eastern If the Miners circumvent their (-9.4) tendency to turnover the football they can take advantage of the ULM major losses on offense (Jones and Leftwich) to secure a SU and ATS victory. Further, the Green are a solid 13-3 ATS at home versus a school with a losing road record, while the visiting Miners come in 1-10 ATS on turf. Good Luck.
|
11-28-15 |
UNLV v. Wyoming +2 |
Top |
28-35 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 40 m |
Show
|
|
11-28-15 |
Florida Atlantic v. Old Dominion +4 |
|
33-31 |
Win
|
100 |
38 h 5 m |
Show
|
|
11-27-15 |
Iowa -1.5 v. Nebraska |
|
28-20 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 17 m |
Show
|
|
11-27-15 |
Missouri v. Arkansas -14 |
|
3-28 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 39 m |
Show
|
|
11-27-15 |
Navy v. Houston +3 |
Top |
31-52 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 16 m |
Show
|
|
11-21-15 |
California +11.5 v. Stanford |
|
22-35 |
Loss |
-106 |
60 h 24 m |
Show
|
5* CAL+ (385) over Stanford @ 10:30 Eastern Saturday Interesting, the Cardinal had run an 8-0 record before falling to Oregon last week on this same field. QB Hogan fumbled twice in the 4th quarter crushing Stanford's hopes of ever sliding into the College Playoffs. Do you think the Cardinal maybe a little down in the first-half, at least? Okay, Stanford (8-2) has won 5 straight in the series, and shows 4-1 ATS L5 meetings. We add Cal coach Dykes is 0-11 SU vs. Stanford, USC, UCLA and Oregon. He can't beat the Big Boys! Stanford has the edge on defense close to 7 points per game better, while the units have similar scoring numbers. Stanford has AA RB McCaffrey the go to guy when the game is on the line. No matter what the stats say, the Bears will rely on QB Goff to throw the ball down the field. He crippled Cal last year in their 38-17 loss to Stanford with 2 INTs. But, there is a huge sticking point for the Cardinal, they have COLLEGE PLAYOFF BOUND Notre Dame next....It's a revenge game for the STANFORD! Over the last 10 years before playing ND, the Cardinal is 3-7 ATS. And, remember Cal is 7-of-10 ATS on the road.
|
11-21-15 |
Iowa State +5.5 v. Kansas State |
|
35-38 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 40 m |
Show
|
|
11-21-15 |
Michigan v. Penn State +3.5 |
|
28-16 |
Loss |
-105 |
3 h 16 m |
Show
|
|
11-21-15 |
North Carolina v. Virginia Tech +6.5 |
Top |
30-27 |
Win
|
100 |
92 h 37 m |
Show
|
Play on: 10* Virginia Tech+ over UNC ACC GAME OF THE MONTH BDS Before the public chews up Beamer Ball value early, I'll step out calling for the outright upset despite the Tar Heels being the more talented unit overall. UNC on a 9-0 perfect run 9-1 this season 6-0 in conference, while the Hokies show 5-5 overall, 3-3 in conference, winners of BB games, the last our ACC GOY on Thursday. Where the Heels made money this season is in their + turnover ratio, however, the EMOTIONAL EDGE this time is all Hokies as they play at home. In 8-of-10 games in the series the Hokies have been the chalk, now their +6-1/2 which is a clear indicator of a talent edge, but it appears the numbers is TOO HIGH! Virginia Tech has covered back-to-back games in the series, and with such a drastic line adjustment from the last two season...TAKE THE POINTS!
|
11-19-15 |
UL-Monroe v. Texas State UNDER 63.5 |
|
3-16 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 8 m |
Show
|
5* (314) ULM and Texas State UNDER the total of 63-1/2...These two will meet for the 12th time on the gridiron when the two squads square off on national television on Thursday night. The trip to San Marcos is the sixth overall for the Warhawks and second as Sun Belt Conference foes. The Warhawks currently hold a 4-1 mark in games played in San Marcos and overall ULM leads the all-time series, 8-3. However, despite the SU number we'll go strong into the total side of the ledger considering some incredible factors, one being the coach of ULM was fired this week. In addition, the DC for TS resigned in late September. There 16-17 or more players hurt or out with injuries...lack of continuity on the playing field! Further, ULM is a bad team 1-9 SU, TX 2-7 SU. ULM is 7-1 UNDER after allowing 40+ points, while TX is a perfect 4-0 UNDER off a SU loss of more than 20 points, 4-0 UNER after surrendering 450+ yards. Also, the last two meetings have produced only 35 and 40 points..UNDER!
|
11-19-15 |
East Carolina v. Central Florida +14.5 |
|
44-7 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 14 m |
Show
|
|
11-14-15 |
New Mexico +30.5 v. Boise State |
|
31-24 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 10 m |
Show
|
|
11-14-15 |
Temple v. South Florida UNDER 45 |
|
23-44 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 32 m |
Show
|
|
11-14-15 |
Oklahoma State v. Iowa State +13.5 |
|
35-31 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 5 m |
Show
|
|
11-12-15 |
Virginia Tech +3 v. Georgia Tech |
Top |
23-21 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 58 m |
Show
|
10* Virginia Tech + over Georgia Tech @ 7:30 Eastern One it comes to big games during the college football season, I use certain coaches as a starting point in the subject game analysis. Here we have suffering Georgia Tech losers of the last 6/7 on the schedule looking to take out a hated rival at home in VPI. Unfortunately, for their backers the Vegas Strip has the Engineers as a -3 or -3-1/2 point chalk. No matter, when I’ve used Beamer Ball in the past, 100% of the time it’s when they are accruing points. The key here again for Beamer is the VTech defense which is holding units under 25 ppg. If they can limit the GTech vaunted Triple Option to around 170-180 yards on the ground, they win this SU. Remember too, this is coach Beamer’s last go around vs. Georgia Tech with this retirement coming at the end of the season. Also, last season Georgia Tech won in a nail bitter 27-24, but the series has given rise to opponent wins alternating year-to-year dating back to 2006. Technicals have the series road unit 5-0 ATS, the underdog 8-1 ATS…BEAMER!
|
11-07-15 |
Michigan State v. Nebraska +4 |
Top |
38-39 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 28 m |
Show
|
|
11-07-15 |
Iowa State v. Oklahoma -24 |
|
16-52 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 6 m |
Show
|
|
11-07-15 |
North Texas +30 v. Louisiana Tech |
|
13-56 |
Loss |
-110 |
17 h 24 m |
Show
|
|
11-07-15 |
Penn State +2.5 v. Northwestern |
|
21-23 |
Win
|
100 |
74 h 38 m |
Show
|
(359) 5* PENN STATE +3 over Northwestern @ 12:00 Eastern After watching the Nits (7-2) demolished the Illini last week, I am still in shock. No, there is no over estimation inside this game analysis as we believe Penn State has taken a huge step forward in their season. Now they must travel to Evanston to face the ‘Cats (6-2) who were much heralded earlier this season. We know Northwestern is coming off a bye week (0-4 ATS) which helps their cause physically, but Penn State has solid SU history versus the Wildcats over the last ten years going 6-1 SU and 3-0 SU on the road. Last year Northwestern won 29-6 at Penn State. The key was shutting down the running game…50 yards on the day. Here the Lions will need to pressure young ‘Cats QB Thorson who has demonstrated major issues with accuracy…so, if the Nits “D” wins out on 3rd down, they cash a SU and ATS ticket. Note, buy 1/2 point to secure the deal, no matter Penn State should win SU.
|
11-05-15 |
Mississippi State v. Missouri +8 |
|
31-13 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 30 m |
Show
|
Play: 4* Missouri +8 (316) over Mississippi State @ 9:00 Eastern What has happened to Missouri who finished 11-3 in 2014? The Tigers returned 46 letters 6 starters on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball. They show 4-4 SU, 2-6 ATS with one quality win 24-10 over crumpling South Carolina with their coach retiring in mid-season. Against Florida, Georgia and Vandy their last three games, they have scored 3, 6 and 3 to be exact! No matter, this game is a nationally televised event and Missouri would not like to be hacked again by a conference opponent. For further assistance we can look to the gusty wet weather expected tonight. Plus, this is a look ahead game for the Bulldogs who have Alabama, Arkansas and Ole Miss on-deck to complete the season. Coach Mullen’s unit is just 2-2 in the West winning three straight games vs. Troy, Louisiana Tech and Kentucky. Mississippi State has never been a good road unit going 23-32 SU the last 10+ seasons, including 2-1 this year with wins over Southern Miss and Auburn. With QB Mauk out for the Tigers, the defense of coach Pinkel will need to play a great game to keep QB Prescott in check. Plus the Tigers have solid defensive ends to help pressure the QB. Technically, we have Mizzou in good shape at 8-0 ATS in November, 4-1 ATS off a bye. Plus, the Tigers have a long-term 58-28-1 ATS record after a loss. MSU is 1-4 ATS L5 and 2-8 ATS in Thursday events.
|
11-05-15 |
Baylor -17 v. Kansas State |
|
31-24 |
Loss |
-105 |
4 h 26 m |
Show
|
4* Baylor -17...not higher over Kansas State @ 7:30 Eastern CFB BLOWOUT ALERT BDS Even without QB Russell the Bears are far the superior unit. My early season voting listed Baylor as the #1 team in the country. No matter, here they should handle the Wildcats in Manhattan. This is a KSU unit that finished last year that finished 9-4 losing 38-27 at Baylor to end the season as a 7+ underdog. They returned just 6 letters both on offense and defense, but their 3-4 SU/ATS. Coach Snyder will have the troops sky high, but we doubt they will come close, especially with the young stud QB of Baylor throwing down the field on most downs which plays into the #93 ranking in passing defense efficiency of Kansas State. In addition, the Wildcats are banged up physically. Bayor is just 1-4 ATS here, but 4-1 ATS in conference. More importantly, the Wildcats are a depressed unit this season and have yet to beat a quality unit losing 23-9 last week to Texas, and the prior week 55-0 to OU.
|
10-31-15 |
Notre Dame -10.5 v. Temple |
|
24-20 |
Loss |
-106 |
13 h 10 m |
Show
|
|
10-31-15 |
Tennessee v. Kentucky OVER 56.5 |
|
52-21 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 46 m |
Show
|
|
10-31-15 |
Vanderbilt +12.5 v. Houston |
|
0-34 |
Loss |
-110 |
72 h 29 m |
Show
|
103115 Play on: 5* Vanderbilt+ (167) over Houston @ 7:00 Eastern SEC GAME OF THE WEEK…BDS Last week nationally our SEC games went 3-1 vs. the number, including our 5* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Louisiana State over the total. First off, the Cougars have a conference look ahead game next week with Cincinnati, in fact, DOUBLE REVENGE. Houston is undefeated 7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS with key wins over Louisville and Tulsa. They are now on a 21-9-1 ATS monster run on the Strip! Vanderbilt is 3-4 SU, but a real nice 5-2 ATS coming off a SU/ATS win over Missouri 10-3 in Tennessee with a QB change. Realize this is a road game, but the Commies have covered at Ole Miss and Middle Tennessee State this season. Feel we are looking at a flat spot for the Cougars who show off a massive offensive showing (600+ yards and 59 points) vs. lesser UCF. Remember Vandy is an SEC unit that plays defense for 4 quarters and will not quit, no matter the score…As a road underdog the Commies are a super 11-4 ATS, and 14-6 ATS L3 years on the road overall…TAKE THE POINTS QUICKLY!
|
10-31-15 |
Boise State -19.5 v. UNLV |
|
55-27 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 57 m |
Show
|
|
10-31-15 |
Georgia +3 v. Florida |
Top |
3-27 |
Loss |
-115 |
25 h 51 m |
Show
|
10* GEORGIA +3 over Florida SEC GAME OF THE YEAR BDS
|
10-31-15 |
UMass +103 v. Ball State |
|
10-20 |
Loss |
-100 |
3 h 42 m |
Show
|
|
10-31-15 |
Central Florida v. Cincinnati -26.5 |
|
7-52 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 29 m |
Show
|
|
10-29-15 |
West Virginia +13.5 v. TCU |
|
10-40 |
Loss |
-115 |
7 h 59 m |
Show
|
102915 Play on: 4* West Virginia (111) +14 over TCU @ 7:30 Eastern At face value the public domain will be backing the home based Horned Frogs 7-0 SU, but just 3-4 ATS over struggling West Virginia. The Mounties visit 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS playing into an exceptional SOS, losers of three straight to Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Baylor all 20-1 SU. Okay, TCU is of the elk, especially when QB Boykin is on fire, but I like the fact the Mounties have had rest (but, so has TCU). However, the visitor needed the break more…considering all the facts and circumstances. The world knows WVA is 1-10 ATS with rest, but this is a “must win” situation for the Mounties to accrue a possible bowl bid. And, when you look back at the last three games in the series, 39-38, 27-30 and 31-30 were the final scores. Understand Horned Frogs have home, talent and tech edges, but they are 2-5 ATS after a +20 point win, and they will face a unit that has taken them to the wire last three times out...CLOSE!
|
10-29-15 |
North Carolina v. Pittsburgh OVER 55.5 |
Top |
26-19 |
Loss |
-106 |
6 h 48 m |
Show
|
|
10-24-15 |
Ohio State -21 v. Rutgers |
|
49-7 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 13 m |
Show
|
|
10-24-15 |
Western Kentucky v. LSU OVER 66 |
|
20-48 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 9 m |
Show
|
|
10-24-15 |
Missouri v. Vanderbilt +2 |
|
3-10 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 32 m |
Show
|
|
10-24-15 |
Tennessee v. Alabama -15 |
|
14-19 |
Loss |
-110 |
79 h 11 m |
Show
|
Play on: (350) 4* Alabama over Tennessee @ 3:30 Eastern SEC OUTLAW MOVE Here is another beauty in the SEC as we have the thundering Crimson Tide coming in 6-1 SU and 3-4 ATS after swamping A&M on the road 41-23 via defensive touchdowns. The Vols show 3-3 both SU & ATS after winning over Georgia 38-31 down in Knoxville. But, note the Chubb injury was the center point in the cause and effect. Important, Alabama is more dominate at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball which eventually will decide the outcome here. If you look back at the Alabama and Arkansas game, the Hogs covered the +16. The current number has ‘Bama laying -15-1/2 (should come down), but I don’t see that as a risk with Alabama starting to play at a higher level and Tennessee regressing. Key: Tennessee is ranked No. 19 rushing the football, but they will have to contend with the #3 rated rush defense in Alabama holding the opposition to 70.9 yards per game. Overall, look for Alabama to stifle the Tennessee attack as this home game will be a huge party for HC Nick Saban before a week of rest and LSU. Technically, Alabama closes with a perfect 5-0 ATS mark off a double-digit ATS win, then going up against an opponent with a revenge. Plus, the Tide are 8-2 ATS in the series.
|
10-24-15 |
Middle Tennessee State v. Louisiana Tech -7 |
|
16-45 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 3 m |
Show
|
|
10-24-15 |
NC State v. Wake Forest +9.5 |
|
35-17 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 48 m |
Show
|
5* Wake Forest** +9-1/2 or +10, over NC State **Note, try to have +10, buying a 1/2-point if possible. The Demon Deacons (3-4 SU & 3-4 ATS) finally collapsed last week as they were crushed by UNC 50-14. Prior Wake had defeated Army by 3 on the road, lost by 7 at Indiana, lost by 8 at Florida State, and then won at Boston College 3-0 before their downer vs. the Tar Heels. No matter, these kids play their hearts out every week, just fell behind last week and could'nt respond. Here they show at home as a DD underdog vs. North Carolina State (4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS) who have lost BB games to Louisville and Virginia Tech...Their 4 wins were against lesser types...Here they do have the talent advantage despite the road setting, but Wake will bounce back EMOTIONALLY, and play a great game, maybe not winning...CASHING YES! Remember, the home team is 14-2 ATS in the series, while the Pack is a PERFECT 0-9 ATS at Wake....WAKE 5-1 ATS at home this season!
|
10-24-15 |
Kansas State +7 v. Texas |
|
9-23 |
Loss |
-108 |
7 h 35 m |
Show
|
|
10-24-15 |
Auburn v. Arkansas -5.5 |
|
46-54 |
Win
|
100 |
75 h 18 m |
Show
|
Play on: (392) 4* Arkansas -5-1/2 over Auburn @ 12: 00 Eastern SEC NO DOUBT ABOUT IT Auburn comes into Hogville 4-2 SU, but just 1-5 ATS after winning and covering vs. Kentucky last week as projected in these pages. Aspiring Arkansas is 2-4 SU and 3-2-1 ATS after losing to ‘Bama two weeks ago 27-14 in Tuscaloosa. Aubie’s key wins this season were vs. Louisville and Kentucky. Arkansas important win thus far was as a road dog vs. Tennessee 24-20…Then the following week played (at) Alabama quite aggressively but, falling 27-14 taking home the cash. Arkansas is off a bye and play in a great DOUBLE REVENGE situation. Auburn has defeated Arkansas by 80-38 in those two games. No doubt the emergence of QB White for Auburn has the offensive unit with an aggressive mindset entering Saturday. Still, when you review the stats from the Kentucky game, you will note the Auburn defense gave up almost 500 yards of total offense. Remember the ‘Hogs are 7-0 ATS as a chalk playing into revenge situation when laying
|
10-23-15 |
Memphis v. Tulsa +10.5 |
Top |
66-42 |
Loss |
-106 |
37 h 36 m |
Show
|
312...10* TULSA +10-1/2 over Memphis...First off, the line is a gift at the aforementioned price. As you may know, totals in the 70's allows us an insight into an offensive battle between these two AAC schools. The reason for the over inflated point spread is the Tigers SU win last week over Ole Miss. Go ahead leap! Also, Memphis for some reason has never played well vs. the number on Friday going 1-5-1 ATS. In the series they are 1-5 ATS, while the offensive Tulsa unit is a sparkling 17-5 ATS vs. a >.500 road team. When you apply the LETDOWN THEORY on a short week, our selection becomes more glaring..Good Luck, and thank you all!
|
10-22-15 |
Temple v. East Carolina OVER 47.5 |
|
24-14 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 26 m |
Show
|
|
10-17-15 |
Florida +7 v. LSU |
|
28-35 |
Push |
0 |
8 h 23 m |
Show
|
|
10-17-15 |
Air Force -3 v. Colorado State |
|
23-38 |
Loss |
-107 |
4 h 50 m |
Show
|
|
10-17-15 |
Idaho +10.5 v. Troy |
|
19-16 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 54 m |
Show
|
|
10-17-15 |
Nebraska +2.5 v. Minnesota |
Top |
48-25 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 57 m |
Show
|
Play on: 10* (163) Nebraska +3 over Minnesota @ 3:30 Eastern Without question the hard luck 'Huskers have earned their stars this season losing games in the last minute. Minnesota last week crushed Purdue as they Gophers went back to the running game, but they are reall banged up. Minnesota is 4-2 SU, Nebraska 2-4 SU. Our math line has Nebraska still rated as a -2-1/2 or -3 value over the Gophers, and that includes the site...NOW WE'RE CATCHING THREE! Also, Minnesota is a perfect 0-6 ATS after Purdue, and this comes full circle considering the game last week was a BLOWOUT...'HUSKERS WIN SU!
|
10-17-15 |
West Virginia v. Baylor -21 |
|
38-62 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 39 m |
Show
|
|
10-17-15 |
Eastern Michigan v. Toledo OVER 60.5 |
|
20-63 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 50 m |
Show
|
|
10-17-15 |
Louisiana Tech +13 v. Mississippi State |
Top |
20-45 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 5 m |
Show
|
10* LOUISIANA TECH+ over Mississippi StateT This is a play against MSU more than anything, considering their off an easy 45-17 win over non-conference Troy, and now play another n/c battle vs. La. Tech. Believe if a team is going to be flat it should be Dak and company considering they must play 5 straight SEC games after this encounter. I don't care what the techs an systems say...THIS IS A CLASSIC LETDOWN! GOOD LUCK.
|
10-15-15 |
UCLA +7 v. Stanford |
|
35-56 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 37 m |
Show
|
(109) 5* UCLA +7 over Stanford @ 10:30 Eastern CFB KNEE-JERK GAME OF THE WEEK BDS The line opened Sunday night Stanford -4-1/2 it now reached -7 at the famous Westgate Super Book in Las Vegas. I’ll start by saying I am going against one of my favorite teams this season Stanford (#15) who simply look to take advantage of the oppositions miscues. The Cardinal is 4-1 this season with a 3-0 record in conference, opposing UCLA (#18) is too 4-1, but carrying a 1-1 record in the PAC-12 losing 38-23 to Arizona State last time out! Remember, the Bruins lost Jack have injuries on their defensive front. But, with a week of rest coach Mora should have his unit ready to go to the farm and win SU. History has illustrated HC Jimmy Mora of UCLA has struggled versus Stanford, and his issue tonight stopping the run. Going back and personally recalling the crushing blow the Cardinal laid on the Bruins in the 2012 Conference Championship game, and then last years “punch in the gut win” in the last game of the season costing Mora and the school. I can see an extended effort by UCLA looking to play their best game of the season. Remember this is a HUGE REVENGE GAME for UCLA (0-7), not defeating Stanford since 2007. Key will be stopping RB McCaffrey who is more explosive than his counterparts allowing TOP domination for Stanford. The attack is balanced with short and medium range passing. The Cardinal has won 24 straight at night at home, but that does not ensure taking home the cash. Key…UCLA needs to get on the score board first, and then apply aggressive defensive tactics to mitigate the Cardinal “ball control” offense. Mora has told the press and the alumni “they (UCLA) will be prepared.” Granted Stanford is 6-1 ATS in the series, but the Bruins a PERFECT 5-0 ATS after a bye week! What could slow Stanford emotionally is their huge win last time in excess of 20. In that role they show 3-8 ATS.
|
10-15-15 |
Western Kentucky -34 v. North Texas |
|
55-28 |
Loss |
-105 |
3 h 2 m |
Show
|
|
10-15-15 |
Auburn -1.5 v. Kentucky |
|
30-27 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 32 m |
Show
|
(107) 4* Auburn -1-1/2 over Kentucky @ 7:30 Eastern Okay, let’s get the main issue out of the way, the War Eagle is on an 2-13 ATS roll. However, Auburn has dominated the series last losing to Kentucky in 2009 in game they showed real flat after losing a real downer to Arkansas. Auburn had won 5 straight before the Arkansas game. By the way, in 2010 Aubie won the national championship. Auburn has won the last two SU at Kentucky, and we note the short price. Further, the Wildcats when in similar situation earlier this season at home versus Florida, lost 14-9. Granted the talent differential favors Fla. Kentucky just missed being upset 34-27 vs. E. Kentucky who is not so talented….letdown(?) probably! But, can’t turn it off and on in the SEC, and here is another must win situation for KU. The ‘Cats did beat South Carolina 26-22 on the road this season, but SC was confused on defense. Remember, this season Auburn has played a more difficult schedule beating Louisville 31-24 and Jacksonville State 27-20 in overtime. Then the War Eagle visited Baton Rouge losing to LSU 45-21. Then Auburn lost to Mississippi State 17-9 and beat San Jose State 32-21 at Jordan-Hare. Realizing all the injuries, I have to believe the LSU game really hurt psyche of the football team. This is great chance being on the road vs. QB Towles and company to recoil the season. Kentucky has not played a strong schedule, now knowing Missouri was over rated since day #1 of the season and South Carolina a no show. We close with Kentucky entering 8-19-1 ATS in the SEC...Aubie 26-20
|
10-13-15 |
Arkansas State v. South Alabama +3.5 |
|
49-31 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 59 m |
Show
|
|
10-10-15 |
Wyoming v. Air Force -23.5 |
Top |
17-31 |
Loss |
-110 |
85 h 52 m |
Show
|
10* Air Force over Wyoming CFB PAY BACK GAME OF THE YEAR BDS...ANALYSIS TO FOLLOW!
|
10-10-15 |
California v. Utah -7.5 |
|
24-30 |
Loss |
-105 |
36 h 55 m |
Show
|
UTAH -7-1/2, suggest buy 1/2 point to lay -7 over Cal CFB GAME OF THE WEEK..BDS In this encounter we catch highly ranked Utah (I have them in my top-five) vs. ranked Cal who is #22nd naitonally...Utah is actually #7. Still, the key here the home team has covered 4/5 in the series, while UTAH is carrying a critical 35-5 ATS mark off a bye week. To play this up scale offense from Berkley you need additional rest and preparation time, so be it! Further, Utah has a much more balanced attack that's faced a plus SOS with one that can run and pass with QB Wilson who can not only pass, but can accrue yardage in key third down situations. Much like Wilson of the Seahawks! Don't laugh...Interesting based on SOS level of units value the Utah rush attack should have huge success overall controlling the tempo versus the Cal front seven, the Utah defense will need to blitz more to challenge the effective air attack of Cal who did a great job in upsetting Washington (who just beat USC last night). For sure, you will see the quicker Utah defensive front take away the Bears running attack, so look for more difficult down and distance situations for their offense!
|
10-10-15 |
Miami (Fla) +7.5 v. Florida State |
Top |
24-29 |
Win
|
100 |
27 h 38 m |
Show
|
101015 Play on: 10* Miami Florida (371) +7-1/2 over Florida State @ 8:00 Eastern CFB UPSET ALERT First off, this game has been moved to a night affair to suit the BOOB TUBE crowd! More important we love the ‘Canes in this local rivalry, especially considering the injuries surrounding FSU. Soph RB Dalvin Cook of FSU ran for over 1,000 yards last year, but is currently nursing a hamstring injury. He is the key to winning the football game for the Sems considering QB Golson is not having a Notre Dame season. If you need proof just check out their 3rd down conversion rating (#126). So, if the Miami defense can bounce back from the Bearcat disaster they have a great shot at winning the football game. Also, going back, the series historically has been defined by close football games. Last year the Sems won 30-26 in 2011, MU won 23-19 and 2009, the Canes won out 38-34 in 2008 the Sems won 41-39 in 2007…HISTORY, HISTORY! By the way, the UNDERDOG is on an 8-2 ATS run L10 years. Finally, the SEMS are 1-6 ATS off a SU win.
|
10-10-15 |
TCU v. Kansas State +10 |
|
52-45 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 53 m |
Show
|
|
10-10-15 |
Oklahoma State +5.5 v. West Virginia |
|
33-26 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 55 m |
Show
|
|
10-10-15 |
Northwestern +7.5 v. Michigan |
Top |
0-38 |
Loss |
-106 |
23 h 47 m |
Show
|
10* NORTHWESTERN +7-1/2 over Michigan CFB FALSE FAVORITE GOY BJC If this game was not played in Ann Arbor, and I mean anywhere else you would have a dead "even" game. I simply believe the lines makers are making you pay for the "Harbaugh" experience. Look how closely rated the two defenses are overall? Northwestern has the more effective QB, and will not be phased by the road set. Remember, the underdog is almost perfect in the series at 6-1 ATS and Michigan is 4-11 ATS after a win of 20+ points. Good Luck!
|
10-10-15 |
Virginia +10.5 v. Pittsburgh |
|
19-26 |
Win
|
100 |
94 h 16 m |
Show
|
101015 Play on: 4* (339) Virginia +10-1/2 over Pittsburgh 12:30 Eastern I started kicking this game around for the Wise Guys’ contest Sunday night, but I had to let go of the mindset when I realized injuries are inside the game. Further, Pittsburgh shows 3-1 SU, but 1-3 ATS, while the Cavs are 1-3 SU AND 1-2-1 ATS with a push no less vs. UCLA in game #1 of the season down in Chalottesville. Remember the Cavs brought back just 11 starters, highly talented Bruins showed with 18 RS…Pittsburgh has 16, but that came from a 6-7 season in 2014, while losing to Virginia 24-19. SOS here favors the visiting Cavs having played Boise State, Notre Dame and UCLA, and of course William & Mary their only gift. Granted coach Narduzzi has done a great job in Pittsburgh…Mike London down in Virginia gets little respect because of the scheduling, last year the Cavs dropped 5 games by
|
10-10-15 |
Indiana +7 v. Penn State |
|
7-29 |
Loss |
-115 |
2 h 5 m |
Show
|
|
10-09-15 |
Southern Miss +3.5 v. Marshall |
|
10-31 |
Loss |
-112 |
13 h 57 m |
Show
|
3* (307) Southern Miss +3-1/2 over Marshall CFB FRIDAY APPRECIATION BDS Based on our strength system and power ratings this encounter is actually a PICK situation. Instead the game was opened by the lines makers and on going the value in the set has been reduced by the sports betting community. Therefore, we are recommending a lighter play with some discipline, and so you must ensure you have at least +3 in the game. Good Luck!
|
10-03-15 |
Arizona State +14 v. UCLA |
Top |
38-23 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 49 m |
Show
|
|
10-03-15 |
Georgia Southern v. UL-Monroe +6 |
Top |
51-31 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 45 m |
Show
|
10* UL-MONROE over GS Our power ratings have this virturally a dead even game, because of SOS. The extreme has been the opponents ULM has faced but, now they come down physically to an opponent on their level, and they show in MAJOR REVENGE losing a heart breaker last season...WIRE JOB!
|
10-03-15 |
Arkansas +7 v. Tennessee |
Top |
24-20 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 24 m |
Show
|
10* Arkansas+ over Tennessee The Vols are coming off a rough last second loss to Florida once again in dramatic fashion. How can they possibly respond in a quality manner? I have respect for their coach, but "B" is behind the "8" ball in 'Hog country and actually needs this win more than the aforementioned after losing three straight games. Remember Arkansas is a PERFECT 5-0 ATS after BB SU losses vs. a unit with under a 67% winning margin...WIRE JOB!
|
10-03-15 |
Western Kentucky v. Rice OVER 71.5 |
|
49-10 |
Loss |
-110 |
56 h 21 m |
Show
|
4* Rice/Western Kentucky Over the total of 71-1/2...Do not go HIGHER My MOTO Game of the Week. Obvious defensive ineffectiveness on both sides, = HIGH SCORING GAME. The fact that Rice was crushed last week 70-17 by Bylor will have the home unit sky high. Also, believe becaususe of street talk concerning WKU, you have an overlay Vs. the side line. I will update everyone on Saturday, if I have a valid side play. Good Luck. Note, yesterday we swept in baseball, so check out our late cards today...remember weather issues on eastern seaboard.
|
10-03-15 |
Louisville +4 v. NC State |
Top |
20-13 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 14 m |
Show
|
10* LOUISVILLE +4 over NCS SOS TOP PLAY ALERT BDS Clearly our favorite SOS angle for Saturday as we have a highly comeptitive Cardinal unit lacking in the win column and getting no respect from lines makers, despite their difficult schedule. Lost some highly talented people from the '14 squad but, remain talent and aggressive. Here they catch the UNDERDOG role and we weather to support their case. Plus NCS is in the midst of a traveling issue with Tech up on the 9th...TAKE THE POINTS!
|