Chiefs/Eagles 6:30: On paper, Eagles the better complete team. On the field, with the lights at their brightest, I'll go with the league MVP (Mahomes) and experienced "big game" coaching staff. Chiefs' DC Spagnuolo draws up good defensive game plans post season. He did it with the Giants and has done it well with the Chiefs. Eagles' offense very dangerous but every offense has its weakness to exploit, and Spagnuolo should find it. Andy Reid has been highly effective with additional rest and off bye weeks. Strategizing is a big part of big games and Reid is near top of the heap in that category. Eagles' defense tremendously aggressive and the best sack team since the '84 - '85 Bears. That defensive line gets up the field fast; consequently, look for the Chiefs to work a quick pass game (Kelce/Toney) and establish run game with slasher back Pacheco and newly activated Edwards-Helaire. Coaching experience in big games and proven big game winner Mahomes checks the mark for taking the points here. Chiefs the call. 

Bengals/Chiefs 6:30: I've been on the Bengals in this series and not getting off them now. A few questions that need to be answered: Can Mahomes ankle hold up to allow him to get out of the pocket where he is most dangerous? And can the Bengals' offensive line allow Burrow to get the ball to his plethora of dangerous receivers? To address Mahomes ankle, don't know for sure, but for most athletes, a high ankle sprain takes a minimum of two weeks to start healing at a level where cutting, pivoting and heavy planting occurs. Mahomes is great but not Superman. He has the highest % completions of any QB in the NFL OUTSIDE THE POCKET. Look for brilliant Bengals' DC Anarumo to dial up different secondary looks, like he usually does, while instituting a few exotic blitzes to keep Mahomes in the pocket to force errant throws. On the other hand, Bengals' shell of an offensive line held up well last week vs Buffalo. Realize that was snow and snow can be forgiving for offensive linemen; however, backups to Jonah Williams and Cappa have gotten lots of reps this season and progressing well. Burrow has been the master of quick pass on three step drops. His superior processing skills, locating open receiver and delivering accurately should carry over vs a KC defensive secondary that is yielding. Respect KC DC Spagnuolo around this time of year, but Bengals' receivers Chase, Boyd, Higgins, TE Hurst, RB Mixon on a different level. Bengals the call.  

49ers/Eagles 3:00: 49ers a legitimate top 4 contender with strength across the board. And rookie QB Purdy is no weak link; however, Eagles are arguably the most complete team of the Final Four. Offensively, a machine. Versatile QB Hurts leads a well-balanced attack that can not only move the football up and down the field (#3 Total Yards) but deliver on the scoreboard (#3 PPG) with 28.1 PPG. A.J. Brown and DaVonta Smith are elite receivers, Goedert is a solid TE, and 1200+ rusher Miles Sanders behind the best offensive line in the league is making a nightmare for well-respected DC DeMeco Ryans who leads the top defense in the NFL. On the other hand, 49ers' HC Shanahan most likely will lean on his running game against a mediocre Philadelphia run-stop-unit. Most likely, however, they'll have to throw, and that's when the Eagles' vulturous secondary led by Gardner-Johnson (6 INT) and Slay. What makes the secondary great is the amazing ability of Philadelphia to get to the QB; as a matter of fact, the Eagles have collected the 3rd most sacks in regular season and postseason history - 75 - only behind the '84 Bears (82) and '85 Bears (80). And we know how great those Bud Ryan defenses were! When the Eagles play to their potential, they're unbeatable. We'll grab Philly here. 

Cowboys/49ers 6:30: Cowboys looked good last week. But TB is a mediocre team. Dallas' QB Prescott had no pressure put on him as finding receivers in the secondary became a virtual 7 on 7 drill. Tonight, a different story vs the #1 scoring defense in the league. Bosa (18' sacks) and company will surely bring the smoke while the opportunistic secondary (#2 forcing turnovers) will force Prescott into quick decisions, which gave him trouble this season (15 INTs). Offensively, SF is well schooled under Shanahan. Purdy makes good decisions and has a strong supporting cast on the line and in skill positions. Samuel, McCaffrey, Kittle, Aiyuk make life really good for QBs. SF had an extra prep day, and Shanahan knows how to use it. McCarthy on the other hand, 2-5 ATS off a win of 14+ and 4-9 ATS on a short week. Look for McCarthy to go 0-4 ATS vs SF. 

Bills/Bengals 3:00: Bengals' offensive line missing key bodies as this line is now to +6. Burrow dealt with it last year, sacked the most of anyone in the NFL and still led his team to a cover in the Super Bowl (+3'). Buffalo's defense hasn't been that great this year and Burrow will surely mix in quick pass to his athletic receiving corps (Chase, Higgins, TE Hurst, Boyd, RB Mixon). Bengals dangerous dog and I'm riding them here. 

Giants/Eagles 8:15: On the Giants last week but will fade them here. Daniel Jones was phenomenal vs a soft Vikings' defense but the Eagles' defense is a whole different animal. Philadelphia has a front four that has collectively 40 sacks! That means they can drop 7 into coverage and still get to the QB. And now that Gardner-Johnson is healthy, he and "Big Play" Slay can do lots of damage on the back-end vs an average Giants' receiving corps with overachieving receiver Hodgens. Offensively, when the Eagles get the run game going behind the best offensive line in the league, they're hard to stop. And throw in matchup nightmare - A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith off play action or RPOs, and that spells more trouble. Sure, Giants have Adoree Jackson healthy and he did well against Justin Jefferson last week in the second half, but tough matchup for the rest of the Giants' secondary. Eagles pretty solid in the Divisional Round at 5-0 and we'll ride them here. 

Jaguars/Chiefs 4:30: Great season for Pederson and his Jaguars.  Pulled off a miracle last week but unlikely here. KC is well rested, healthy, and Reid is a master coming off an additional week of prep at an astounding 27-4. They're 3-0 in the Divisional Round off a bye. Chiefs not good as a home favorite during regular season but 6-2 ATS at home in the playoffs. November 13th, the Chiefs lost two fumbles and still won 27-17. Chiefs' DC Spagnuolo usually makes life miserable for opposing QBs in the playoffs. Chiefs have healthy linemen Chris Jones, Frank Clark and Carols Dunlap to wreak havoc on Lawrence while his secondary disguises coverages well. On the flip end, lots of receiving firepower at Mahomes' disposal, including TE Kelce, WR Smith-Schuster, Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore and RB Pacheco. Jag's defense surrendered a generous 1,087 receiving yards to TEs this season with 13.1 yards per reception. That's 3rd worst in the NFL. Kelce should have a big game. We'll lay the wood here. 

Cowboys/Bucs 8:15: All the pressure in this game on Cowboys. And by now, everyone is aware of the futility the Cowboys bring to the post season, including last year's debacle at home against SF. Can't trust them laying points on the road in big games. Bowles did a great job stifling the Cowboys in Week 1. He has the secondary, great LB Corps and solid defensive line to give Prescott and company trouble again. TB surely underachieved this season and their offensive line is a concern vs the blitz happy Cowboys. But Brady, 7-0 vs Dallas, is battle tested and thrives in these games. He'll find a way to get the ball to Evans, Godwin and Fournette. Prescott has yet to prove he's a prime-time player in a big game. McCarthy is 0-2 SU vs Bowles. TB 8-0 as a home dog on MNF and 6-1 ATS on MNF vs a non-division opponent. We'll take the points. 

Ravens/Bengals 8:15: A little pricey at first glance for the Bengals here; after all, Baltimore is dangerous on the road in the playoffs under Harbaugh; however, at a closer look, with Lamar Jackson out, and backup Huntley laboring with a sore shoulder, Bengals' respectable secondary can squat on a lot of the short routes that are anticipated. The Bengals do have a solid run stop unit (7th in the league). And now that confident Joe Burrow is no longer leading the league in sacks, like last year, he's even more dangerous. Like Baltimore's defense, especially with the addition of MLB R. Smith, but because of the lack of offense, don't believe they can hold up for long and trade points with the Bengals for the duration. Bengals went on that magical run last year, mostly as a dog, including covering in the Super Bowl. They're 5-0-1 ATS in January and now in the favorite role and deservedly so here. We'll lay the wood. 

Giants/Vikings 4:40: In the Christmas Eve game, Giants got behind but didn't panic. They stuck to the game plan and gradually wore down the Minnesota defense that allowed them back in that game. Vikings 31st in yards allowed, 31st in pass yards allowed and 28th in points scored. Giants lost that game on a 61 yard field goal in the last seconds. They feel confident going into this one; after all, they're healthy as a team. Amazing transformation of Daniel Jones. A testament on what a coach (Daboll) can do for a young struggling QB. We see the same thing in Jacksonville with Pederson and Lawrence. Jones sports a 15/5 TD/INT ratio and will most likely be contract extended in offseason. His 2nd and 3rd receivers: Hodgins and Richie James surprisingly torched the Vikings' secondary. Even perennial All-Pro cornerback Patrick Peterson had a hard time guarding Hodgins. And Barkley should once again set the tone for Daniel Jones to operate efficiently. Giants are 7-0 ATS off a SU loss and covered 4 straight on the road. Vikings lack of defense in second half should allow the hard fighting Giants to stick around again.  

Dolphins/Bills 1:05: Without question, Hill and Waddle are perhaps the most dangerous wide receiver tandem in the league; however, not confident that 3rd string Skylar Thompson can deliver. Thompson sports a poor 27.3 QBR with 1 TD pass and 3 INTs to his credit. He'll have to operate without leading rusher Mostert (broken thumb) who ran roughshod over the Bills December 17th. And the Dolphins' offensive line is thinning out with three noteworthy linemen having multiple injuries. Bills' top tier defense should make the needed adjustments. And offensively, it's a matter of time before Josh Allen and company shred the overworked secondary. Buffalo the call. 

Chargers/Jaguars 8:15: Jaguars finished red hot down the stretch on a 5-0 run. Trevor Lawrence made significant strides under first year HC Pederson. Pederson controls a Super Bowl ring on his finger (2017 Eagles) and the Jaguars are in good hands with him. And just when the Chargers' defense was making strides (strong against Miami, Tennessee, Indianapolis and the Rams), they fell off production the final week vs Denver. Offensively, losing Mike Williams (fractured back) is a significant loss. He's a matchup nightmare when healthy. Chargers should be more competitive than they were in Week 3 when Jacksonville ran all over them for 157 yards rushing and controlled the clock for 17 1/2 minutes more! Like the Jaguars opportunistic defense (26 turnovers forced) and we'll stay on the Jaguars here. 

Chargers/Jaguars 8:15: Jaguars' offense is cooking under Lawrence and don't believe the Chargers' defense can slow them down here. At the same time, Herbert may be without matchup nightmare WR Williams (back) but he's an elite QB who makes good receivers even better. Palmer, Carter and TE Everett have elevated their game this season. And Ekeler and Keenan Allen are outstanding go-to weapons. Don't see Jaguars shutting them down like in Game 3. Staley 5-1 O/U w/ revenge. "Over" the call. 

Seahawks/49ers 4:35: 49ers coming into this game hot on an 8-2 ATS run. Defensively, they're stifling, and the offense is cooking with Deebo Samuel back in the fray today. Seahawks snuck in the playoffs with help from the Lions beating GB. Nevertheless, Seattle no easy out. They swept this series last year, and sport a 15-7-1 ATS in its last 23 vs SF. They're seeking double revenge from this season's regular season sweep. Pete Carrol a dangerous 11-3 ATS as a dog vs a greater than .500 division opponent. Seahawks figure it out and keep this one tight. 

Lions/Packers 8:20: Packers turned their season around following the November 6th loss to the Lions.  Since then, on a 5-2 SU/ATS run. The run game got cooking and Rodgers finally got in rhythm with his young receivers. Moreover, they started winning the turnover battle as the defense is playing lights out in the secondary. Detroit's Goff is a machine at home but just mediocre on the road. He'll be sorely tested vs the #2 pass defense in the NFL Sunday night. Lions' defense still can't be trusted vs this caliber of offense. They're last in the league in yards allowed and in the bottom tier scoring defense.  Green Bay is a sweet 10-0 ATS off a SU division win vs a division opponent off a SU win. And they're 10-1 ATS as a home favorite of more than 4 points vs a .500 or greater division opponent. Lions a shaky 1-10 ATS as division dogs of less than 5 points vs an opponent off back-to-back SU wins. Take the Packers.

Chargers/Broncos 4:25: Regardless of the playoff seeding scenarios for the Chargers, they've clinched a spot. A win by the Bengals in the earlier game gives speculation that Staley will sit a lot of his starters; however, he has no plans for that and wants momentum going into the playoffs. Look for the Chargers to continue their winning surge. The defense has been one of the key driving forces in their winning run down the stretch. Their previous 4 opponents were held to 11 PPG or less. Their defensive efficiency went from #26 to #5. LB Van Noy has been pivotal in their success as he's had a sack in 4 straight games. Chargers' offense now in rhythm with receivers Williams and Allen healthy for machinelike QB Herbert. Broncos gave a strong effort vs KC last week and are on a nice run covering 4 of their last 5. But Chargers are a lot better now than their October 17th OT win over Denver. And the Broncos cannot be trusted in the favorite role. Dog is 5-2 ATS in this series. Take the points with the Chargers. 

Analysis to follow...

Browns/Steelers 1:00: Steelers hanging by a thread for a playoff berth. If they win here, they need both the Patriots (at Buffalo) and Dolphins (vs Jets) to lose. Tomlin, currently at 8-8, has never had a losing season and he should have his men fired up at home today. They're also seeking to avenge the September 22nd 29-17 loss. Browns are starting to get their offense cooking behind QB Watson, who did not play (suspended) in that earlier season matchup. Nick Chubb continues to be a steady running force for Cleveland. But Pittsburgh controls the 7th stingiest run-stop-unit in the league. Offensively, Pittsburgh not explosive, but steady, and even clutch in production. QB Pickett has no interceptions in 6 of last 7 games. Browns' defensive end Clowney, dismissed from practice earlier this week, will not suit up today. Pittsburgh sports a sweet 16-3 ATS mark at home vs a less than .500 division opponent off a SU win. Cleveland is a money burning 2-18 ATS off a non-division game vs a division opponent with revenge. Take Pittsburgh. 

Titans/Jaguars 8:15: Jaguars feeling really good about themselves on a nice run. But don't count the Titans out. They're actually better on the road (5-1-1 ATS run) against the mid-tier teams. And should be very competitive vs their division, especially in a revenge mode and with a playoff berth at stake. Titans are 4-0-1 ATS off a double-digit loss at home. Vrabel is a sweet 10-2 ATS with revenge vs an opponent off back-to-back SU wins. QB Dobbs is capable of guiding the offense now that Derrick Henry is back in the fray. Dobbs has been decisive and quick in his decision making. Defensively, Titans play the run well (#2) and have gotten a bit healthier in their secondary. Titans have done well in Jacksonville at 4-1 ATS. Look for Tennessee to be competitive here. 

Vikings/Packers 4:25: Really impressed with the secondary play of Green Bay this season (#3 vs pass) especially last week vs elite receivers Waddle and Hill. They'll face some very good ones today in Jefferson, Theilen, TE Hockenson, and RB Cook. We'll look for the Packers' DC Barry to continue to make the right adjustments. Offensively, Rodgers a bit off the mark but got in a groove with his receiving corps and the Pack is rolling on a 3-0 SU/ATS run. Green Bay offense should run through the Vikings' soft defense like a hot knife through butter. Vikings in the bottom tier vs the pass, total yards and points allowed. LaFleur a sweet 11-2 ATS as a favorite vs a .500 or greater team off a SU win. And the Packers are 9-1 ATS vs a division opponent off back-to-back SU wins. Packers can win out and have a good chance at the playoffs. Green Bay should get sweet revenge from Week 1 loss.  

Jets/Seahawks 4:05: Both teams desperate for a win with identical 7-8 records. Seattle has a 27% chance of getting to the playoffs, so they'll need to sweep remaining two and get help from other teams. Jets have just a 15% chance. Like the Seahawks chances here. They've won 4 straight in this series. Geno Smith will have back Lockett (finger) for this one. That's a big plus to take pressure off Metcalf vs a tough Jets' secondary.  A healthy Walker III behind an improving front line should get the run game going. Seattle needs to tighten their defense. Look for it here. Jets' QB White gets back the nod as the starter. Jets' run game hasn't been cooking since Breece Hall (out) went down. Pete Carroll 12-3 ATS off back-to-back losses, should get er done here. 

 49ers/Raiders 4:05: 49ers are rolling yet still have something to play for. They most likely won't secure home field advantage throughout playoffs, for the Eagles will control that; however, they can secure a few home games by winning out. Raiders, on the other hand, are on life support as a playoff team and flat line here. Jarrett Stidham takes over at the helm as Derek Carr is benched for the year. Stidham has played in 11 games with no starts in his career. 49ers' Bosa and Ebukam should give him a rude awakening today. Stidham has weapons such as Waller, Davante Adams, Renfrow and RB Jacobs; however, he hasn't had enough time to establish a rhythm with them, and he's just plain not that good. And facing the #1 defense in the NFL in a variety of categories is not the right setting to go against in a first NFL start. On the other hand, Purdy is well supported and loaded with weapons. Should be able to work a mediocre defense (24th PPG allowed). 49ers 17-4 ATS in January and 6-1 ATS in Week 17. Lay the wood. 

Bears/Lions 1:00: Bears appear to be tanking to secure high draft choice. Defensively, they've hit the skids (32nd in scoring defense). You would think the revenge motive would be there today, but it wasn't against Green Bay, and I doubt it will be here today. Bears 1-7 ATS off a SU loss vs division opponent off a double-digit SU loss. Detroit has a tendency to lay an egg now and then but usually a scoring machine at home. Detroit is 12-4 ATS at home, and 8-4 ATS off a SU loss under Dan Campbell. Goff is half-human-half machine at Ford Field. Lions are now 5-2 ATS after allowing 35+ points, and they're 11-2 ATS vs an opponent off a double-digit SU loss. Detroit still a slim hope for a playoff berth and we'll take them here.  

Broncos/Rams 4:30: Both teams highly underachieved this year. Rams did so with numerous injuries, especially along the offense line where they've reshuffled nearly 13 times. The Broncos, however, never meshed as an offensive unit with Wilson as the signal caller. Denver coming off a win over the lifeless Arizona Cardinals but can't be trusted in this spot. They're 1-6 ATS off a SU win and just 1-7 ATS in Week 16. Hackett is no master motivator and I do believe that trend will hold weight here. On the other hand, Rams' Mayfield has had a few weeks to get in rhythm with his receivers: Atwell, Van Jefferson, Powell and TE Higbee. RB Cam Akers has shown some production in recent weeks. And Rams' defense, still has some veteran stars which bring energy to the field, including MLB Wagner. Edge to McVay as the signal caller in creating something out of limited talent. With the home team in this series at 4-1 ATS and the dog at 6-0 ATS, take the points with the Rams.

Packers/Dolphins 1:00: Both teams still alive for a playoff spot. Look for fireworks on the offensive side. QB Rodgers is getting in rhythm with his young receivers, including Christian Watson. Miami defense has given up lots of yards through the air (lower tier of NFL) and points (nearly 25 ppg - 27th in NFL). On the other hand, Dolphins got their run game going last week with Mostert leading the way (136 yards). And GB defense has been vulnerable to the run (149 YPG - 29th in NFL). Effective running game will surely open the lanes for Waddle and Hill. GB has heavy "over" trends while Miami is on a 5-2 O/U run. "Over" the call. 

Raiders/Steelers 8:15: Tomlin has never had a losing record as a coach of the Steelers and should be on his way to maintain that status tonight. A glimmer of hope for each of these teams riding winning streaks coming into this one; however, Steelers have the home field advantage, and extra motivation with the passing of Steelers' legend Franco Harris who will be honored posthumously at halftime. QB Pickett should get the nod but Trubisky proving he can step in and guide the team. Dominant performance by the Steelers last week as they ran the ball well and also continue to defend vs the run well. They held Carolina to a measly 21 yards rushing last week. The #7 run stop unit will need to stop LV RB Jacobs - who is having a career year. LV has covered this series 5 straight times but look for the surging Steelers who welcome the warm weather Raiders to the 7-degree temperature of Heinz Field. Pittsburgh the call. 

Philadelphia/Dallas 4:25: This series has gone 'over' 4 straight and 5 of the last 7 in Dallas. Philadelphia offense shouldn't slow down with Minshew at the helm. He would most likely be a starting QB on at least 3 NFL teams this season. And he's got a lot of skill weaponry at his disposal, including TE Goedert back for this one. Cowboys have injuries on the back end of their defense, and with Dallas LB Vander Esch out, Eagles run game won't miss a beat with arguably the best offensive line in the league leading the way. Cowboys' run stop unit 24th in the league vulnerable. On the other hand, Eagles only soft spot is their run stop unit. They're in the lower echelon of the league stopping the run (19th). And Dallas can run the football when they're devoted to it. With heavy "over" trends for these teams in December, we'll go "over" here. 

Commanders/49ers 4:05: Commanders won the total yards in passing and rushing vs the Giants last week but costly errors (strip sack) and inability to close in the red zone cost them the game. Look for Washington to do well in this spot. They're 7-3 ATS in Week 16 and 3-0-1 ATS at SF including a 23-15 outright win at SF back in Ron Rivera's first year coaching Washington in 2020. SF could take their foot off the gas pedal here after clinching division. Commanders will have DE Chase Young making his season debut to give Brock Purdy trouble. And offensively, the weapons are abundant with Dotson, Samuel, McLaurin, RB Robinson. SF just 3-7 ATS in Week 16. We'll take the points. 

Saints/Browns 1:00: Browns are made to play in the inclement weather on Saturday. Watson is getting comfortable in the system and the run game with Chubb and Hunt behind a rock solid offensive line should be the deciding factor. Saints, 21st in rushing, not utilizing Kamara like they should. And explosive receiver Olave out. Taysom Hill may get significant action to attempt to gain yardage in what should be extremely cold with heavy winds. Browns made for this weather and Saints are not. 

Bengals/Patriots 1:00: Patriots no longer the intimidating force at Foxborough where they've gone 3-3 SU/ATS this season. They've dominated this series, but the trend should flip starting today. Patriots have average offensive personnel coached by questionable offensive minds (DC Patricia/QB Coach Judge). And Mac Jones displays a temperament and pocket awareness not feasible to be a big game winner. NE wants to pound the rock, throw the quick screens but Bengals' defense surely up to the challenge. They have a good run-stop-unit (8th vs the run), limit points in the red zone, and create turnovers. On the other side of the ball, Burrow is sacked less often now and the Bengals' offense is rolling. They're well balanced, limit turnovers and have dangerous weapons (Chase, Higgins, Perine, Mixon, Boyd) that NE defensive backs will have trouble with. And now that the Bengals' offensive line is starting to gel, Bengals should keep it rolling. 

Jacksonville/NY Jets 8:15: Last December, the Jets gashed the Jaguars on the ground for 273 yards rushing en route to a 26-21 home win. Zach Wilson threw for a mere 100 yards but did more damage with his feet (97 yards). Jets lost their rushing mojo when Breece Hall went down at Denver. Jaguars' defense still vulnerable vs the run but have the offense clicking as QB Lawrence coming into his own in his second season at the helm And a healthy versatile RB Etienne is surely helping the successful transition. Meanwhile, Zach Wilson still going through growing pains in his second year running the offense and Jax defense, which has created 21 turnovers, is licking their chops watching film on Wilson. We'll grab the points with the upward trending Jaguars. 

Jaguars/Jets 8:15: This series has gone "over" 5 straight and "over" in 5 of the last 6 overall. I projected about a 39 or 40 'total' for tonight based on the inclement weather, defensive prowess of the Jets, and lack of offense by the Jets. Therefore, a few points of value with the "over" here. Both teams have had turnover issues - which leads to sudden change points. Jaguars have cleaned their turnovers up over their winning streak as Lawrence has been razor sharp as the offense is humming. Jets' offense stuck in neutral with Wilson at QB but did gut the Jaguars last year on the ground with 273 yards rushing en route to 26-21 win on this field. Jax is 8-1 O/U in their last 9 road games and 4-0 O/U in their last 4 overall. They're also 5-0 O/U in December. We'll go "over". 

Rams/Packers 8:15: Rams coming off an emotional high after their epic win over the Raiders last Thursday. Baker Mayfield, claimed off the waiver wire two days prior, capped off the comeback with a 98 yard drive. It was truly a remarkable feat considering he had limited plays to his knowledge, no time to get into a rhythm with receivers, not to mention calling the pass protection and signal count. What was also remarkable, was the ineptitude of the Raiders' defense which made major blunders (penalties) to allow the Rams back in the game. I don't see lightning striking twice in Green Bay tonight. Mayfield was also good in his early outings in Cleveland coming off bench improvising and ripping the ball downfield. Packers more disciplined defensively in all areas of their game and won't make the mistakes the Raiders did. Now that Mayfield had time to settle in a bit, we'll look for the last year's Mayfield, and even this year's Carolina Mayfield to emerge. Not an easy task for the Rams to transition to 20 degrees tonight. They have not had success against Green Bay. Packers have covered this series eight straight times, including four as a favorite of 7 or more. Rams still have a patchwork offensive line, no Cooper Kupp or Aaron Donald. Packers should roll. 

Analysis to follow...

Dolphins/Bills 8:15: The cold weather stigma on Miami in December won't go away, and it shouldn't; after all, in December, they're a disturbing 0-9 ATS on the road off a SU/ATS loss vs an opponent off s SU win. And after a red-hot start, Tua has been catching flak on his fallout after back-to-back sub-par performances He completed just 45.9% of his passes over the last two weeks, including against the depleted secondary of the Chargers last week. And yes, it's going to be a cold, snowy, windy night Saturday evening. The only other time Tua has played in freezing temperatures was January 2nd at Tennessee last year. He had a horrible day in a 34-3 blowout loss. He and the Dolphins have a lot to prove tonight. They're just 2-7-1 ATS at Buffalo. And without a run game (#29 in league with just 89.8 YPG), Tua will be in for a long night against the #2 scoring defense in the league. Cold weather grown Josh Allen should get his game back on track tonight against a defense that allows 31.4 PPG. Buffalo the call. 

Ravens/Browns 4:30: Browns still mathematically alive for playoffs but face an uphill battle and it starts today. Ravens, 12-3 ATS in December, are playing sound football and winning games despite QB Jackson sidelined. Backup QB Huntley got the nod and got the job done. He's in concussion protocol but did participate in walk through Thursday. He or 3rd string Anthony Brown have, a solid supporting cast with a now deep backfield as J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards back in the fray behind a very good offensive line. And Ravens' offense always more productive with Mark Andrews in the lineup. Cleveland defense underachieving (27th in league) allowing nearly 25 PPG. On the other hand, #8 ranked scoring defense on their game ever since All Pro MLB Roquan Smith was brought on before the trade deadline. The Ravens' defense has been outstanding over last 3 weeks. Cleveland's QB DeShaun Watson still rusty after a few starts and he's got his hands full again today. Baltimore is 5-1 ATS in this series including 23-20 win on October 23rd. Browns' HC Stefanski can't be trusted as a favorite off a SU loss at 3-10 ATS. Solid traveling Ravens should get it done again. 

Colts/Vikings 1:00: Vikings have a hard time putting teams away because of a yielding defense. Sure, Colts' offense is pedestrian but has talented players in RB Jonathon Taylor, WRs Pierce, Pittman Jr., Campbell. And the offensive line has been solid. Turnovers have killed the Colts this year as Matt Ryan has seen his better days; however, there might be some old magic left after a bye week and against a defense that's allowed an average of 30.4 PPG over the last 5 games. A few weeks ago, Colts hung tough with Dallas for 3 quarters until the turnovers started and they unraveled. Vikings don't nearly have the defense Dallas does. Colts are 4-0 ATS after allowing more than 30 points. They're also 5-1 ATS on Saturday and covered 4 straight in this series. Colts' defense has a ball hawking secondary, and a solid pass rush. Vikings just 1-7 ATS vs an opponent off a bye week and just 3-9 ATS vs teams below .500. Take the points with the Colts. 

49ers/Seahawks 8:15: On paper, SF clearly the call; after all, they've won 6 straight (5-1 ATS), coming off blowout win over Tampa Bay. They have the #1 defense in the NFL, and Brock Purdy is taking SF by storm guiding the offense. On the other hand, Seattle has lost 4 straight ATS, has a defense that's been gashed in 3 of last 4 games, and Geno Smith has thrown 4 INTs over last 3 games. Easy call, right? Hold everything. Seattle not an easy out under Pete Carroll. Remember, no other coach holds his amazing prime time record. He's 11-2 ATS at home off a double digit ATS loss, and 10-2 ATS as a dog vs .500 or greater division opponent. He has Kenneth Walker III back in the fray to fuel the run game, pretty healthy offensive line to ward off the smoke SF will bring, and 8-1 ATS as a division dog vs an opponent off back-to-back SU wins. And remember, Purdy is a rookie, and the Seahawks' ball hawking secondary is talented with C Woolen, C Jackson, FS Diggs. This will be Purdy's first road test at the ridiculously loud Lumen Field with 72,000 screaming fans. And he's short one big weapon in Deebo Samuel. And keep in mind SF is just 2-8-1 ATS in Seattle, 2-5 ATS Week 15, 1-3 ATS as a Thursday Night road favorite, and 0-6 ATS on Thursday night off a SU win. Seattle will be ready tonight to avenge the Week 2 loss.  

Patriots/Cardinals 8:15: Patriots have a bit more stability in their program now. Arizona enduring another Kingsbury flop down the stretch of the season. Cardinals have been a brutal team in December. They've lost 4 of their last 5 December tilts and dropped 9 of their last 12 home games. Cardinals are coming off a bye week so they're healthier; however, with playoffs just about a distant memory, doubt that they took advantage of the extra prep time to their maximum benefit. Arizona has been a disaster on MNF at 2-10 ATS. They're also 0-8 ATS on MNF vs non-division opponent off a SU loss. Patriots are actually 5-0 ATS as a road favorite on MNF. I do realize that the Patriots' offense is brutal with Patricia and Judge as an integral part of it. Mac Jones will have to make do with them for at least the rest of the season. Fortunately, the Patriots have a decent defense (6th in points allowed). Can't say the same for Arizona - 32nd in NFL in points allowed at 27 PPG. And the Arizona offense has been stuck in neutral for most of the season. NE has had trouble with mobile QBs (Justin Fields/Josh Allen/Lamar Jackson) so that is a major concern with Murray; however, we'll look for Belichick to finally figure it out tonight. Belichick 7-1 ATS off double digit loss vs less than .500 team. And he's 12-2 ATS off a double-digit loss at home. Patriots do have something to play for now that the Jets lost. NE the call. 

Dolphins/Chargers 8:20: Chargers have their share of injuries to star players (Bosa, J.C. Jackson, Derwin James, Slater, Pipkins III) and because of that, they're home underdogs - rightfully so. However, as long as Herbert is on the field and he has capable receivers, they're in the game. The good news is Keenan Allen is healthy and matchup nightmare Mike Williams (ankle) will be back in a limited role. Herbert also gets his C Lindsley back. And versatile RB Ekeler (85 receptions and 5 TD catches) is healthy. Throw WR Palmer and TE Everett in the mix and that quick passing game of LA is dangerous. Miami pass defense has been vulnerable (233.5 YPG - 22nd in league). Sure, Miami's explosive weaponry will get their share of points against a yielding Chargers' defense, but Herbert and company should be able to trade points successfully. We'll take the points with the desperate home team clinging on to their playoff hopes by a thread. 

Panthers/Seahawks 4:25: Going into this season, Seahawks' Carroll was 2-10 O/U as a favorite vs a less than .500 foe. That trend has flipped this year as the Seahawks are 3-0 O/U as chalk vs losing teams. Seahawks' defense in mid-October through mid-November actually did well keeping teams out of the end zone. Over the last few weeks, however, they're giving up chunks of yards on the ground resulting in scoring drives. Carolina has a good one in D'Onta Foreman (4.5 YPC). Good possibility he'll help open the pass game for resurging QB Darnold who showed promise last week vs a very good Denver defense. On the other hand, Seahawks' #9 ranked offense is finding the end zone this season. RB depth is questionable Geno Smith still has the explosive receiving weaponry to torch secondaries and Carolina's is a middle of the road one, if that. This series has gone 6-0 O/U in its last 6 meetings and 6-0 O/U in Seattle. Panthers are 5-0 O/U last 5 road vs teams with winning home records. "Over" it is. 

Eagles/Giants 1:00: Eagles clearly playing like a Super Bowl contender with no glaring weaknesses on both sides of the ball. Yet, they have had their difficulties with the Giants, especially at home where NY won and covered the last two. In those two, Hurts threw for just 51.7%. And in his last stop in the Meadowlands, he was picked off three times in a 13-7 defeat. Of course, AJ Brown addition changes the whole scheme of things. He's a matchup nightmare with anyone in single coverage. Giants are a yielding defense but do limit explosive plays and toughen in the red zone. Giants allow 21 PPG good for 12th in the league. Philadelphia defense for the most part rock solid but they've had some issues stopping the run. Washington and Houston were able to outrush them. Giants' 1000+ yard rusher - Barkley (neck) overdue to get on track after averaging a measly 2.8 YPC over last 3 games. And QB Daniel Jones continues to be dangerous on the ground - racking up 522 yards. Eagles are coming off a blowout win but just 2-6-1 ATS after scoring 30+. Giants, on a 7-2 ATS run, have cleaned up turnover problem this season (5th in league) under Daboll. And Eagles not having star S Gardner-Johnson (6 INT, 55 solo tackles) big loss. And offensively, no TE Goedert (IR) stymies the pass game a bit. We'll look for the fighting Giants to hang tough today in the Meadowlands. 

Vikings/Lions 1:00: Lions now 11-4 ATS at home under Campbell. Lions looking to avenge Week 3 loss but cover to Vikings. Vikings are a resilient team that delivers late game heroics, including that September 25th matchup in which they trailed 24-14 entering the 4th quarter. But Lions have learned to clean up their game lately. They've won 5 straight ATS including 4-1 SU. During that run they've cut down significantly on turnovers. Goff has been machine like in precision with 8 TD passes and only 1 INT over last 6 games. Lions are a rare favorite here and that seems dangerous considering the Vikings late game surges; however, Lions have covered 4 straight in this series and are actually 7-0 ATS as home favorites of less than 8 points vs greater than .400 opponent. This is their 2nd favorite role on the year (1-1 SU/ATS) and we'll lay-up to 2 points here or get on money line at a reasonable price. 

Minnesota/Detroit 1:00: Both of these teams have heavy "over" trends. And this series has gone 4-1 O/U in its last 5 meetings and 4-1 O/U in Detroit. Lions on a 10-4 O/U overall run. Not a surprise considering their defense allows 27 PPG (last in the league). But Goff and company have been machine-like this season averaging 26.3 PPG. OC Ben Johnson has done an outstanding job working with Goff and the offense. They should be able to frequent the end zone against the worst pass defense in the NFL that allows 283.6 YPG. We'll go "over" here. 

Raiders/Rams 8:15: Rams' defense getting toasted by the pass. Over the last 3 weeks, the Rams are 1 of 3 teams that have allowed 300+ passing yards per game giving up 2.3 TDs per game. Enter the hot Raiders led by Derek Carr who has multiple TD passes in 5 straight games including against pretty good pass defenses (Denver, Indianapolis, Los Angeles Chargers). What has aided Carr, is the revved up running game of Josh Jacobs behind an offensive line that's found its footing; consequently, that opens the play action game with the always dangerous Davonte Adams - who has been on a tear. On the other side of the ball, Raiders' defense leaves a lot to be desired. Injuries in secondary and on the line. And they yield yards and explosive plays; however, not sure if Rams can take advantage of it. Rams' offensive line still has issues, QB Wolford is questionable with sore neck, which leaves versatile Bryce Perkins and newly acquired Mayfield. Mayfield most likely won't see action. You don't learn a system, signals, line calls in week. Just not going to happen. Nevertheless, still no direction to this offense without Kupp and Stafford. Cam Akers did show promise in the run game last week, but Las Vegas should have that strength well studied. Raiders did show promise in pass rush last week as Chandler Jones finally showed up to help out always hustling Maxx Crosby. Raiders have a tendency to make games interesting and not super confident laying points with them. We'll trend lightly with the Raiders tonight. 

Raiders/Rams 8:15: This series is 1-4 O/U. Rams are 8-17 O/U in last 25 home games. McVay 2-9 O/U at home off SU/ATS loss. We'll stay "under". 

Saints/Bucs 8:15: Both teams in contention for division title. Bucs (5-6) can pull away with some breathing room with a win and they should deliver vs the struggling Saints (4-8). Saints gave TB problems last season with a season sweep. That was under Sean Payton. This season, Saints don't have near the swagger under Dennis Allen. Saints sport a minus 15 turnover margin. Offensively, they've had spurts of offensive success but turn the ball over way too much (21). Defensively, they do get back Lattimore who's given Mike Evans problems in the past; however, he hasn't played since Week 5. TB delivered the win in Week 20-10 at New Orleans. Dennis Allen a poor 0-6 ATS with revenge vs opponent off a SU loss. Look for Brady and company to bounce back strong in this spot. They're 11-2 ATS as favorites of less than 7 points off a SU non-division favorite loss. TB the call. 

Chargers/Raiders 4:25: In recent history, this series has been closely contested with the dog going 19-8 in the last 27 meetings. Chargers are 5-2 ATS when playing on the road vs the Raiders. Sure, Chargers have a few offensive linemen (C Linsley, RT Pipkins III) out, but Herbert's quick release, the return of crafty veteran Kennan Allen, emergence of Palmer, and the ability of RB Ekeler to get open make up for that. LA will have to find a way to chip or slow down Maxx Crosby. I trust they will. On the other hand, Chargers' defense has its problems but have playmakers like Mack and Derwin James who can make big plays. We'll look for the Chargers to stick around and deliver. '

Seahawks/Rams 4:05: It seems ridiculous to lay a TD on the road in a division game with a team that's been gutted by the run in back-to-back games; however, this game dictates to do the ridiculous. Rams without defensive impact player Aaron Donald (ankle) and starting QB Stafford (concussion). Sure, Wofford has proven to be a viable backup but he has limited weapons with no Cooper Kupp (IR) and Allen Robinson ((R). Rams' HC McVay is only as good as his horses will allow him to be. Today, he doesn't have the horses to compete at a high level. On the other hand, Carroll does. Although a flu was going around earlier in the week, the Seahawks are relatively healthy. Defensive minded Carroll will figure out the leaky run-stop-unit especially against a reshuffled Rams' offensive line with a running game 31st in the league. The Rams are a 1/2 yard short of being the worst offense in the NFL. All said and done, Seattle's lost 3 straight to division rival Los Angeles and need a win here to keep pace with NFC West leader SF. Pete Carroll is an amazing 13-2 ATS off back-to-back losses. I won't bet against him in this situation. Seattle the call. 

Commanders/Giants 1:00: Commanders on a 6-1 run primarily because they've won the turnover battle during that run. They're plus-7 in turnover margin the last 7 weeks. They were minus-7 in their 1-4 start to the season. Moreover, they've also won the run game battle in 5 of their last 7 games enabling Heinicke to work successfully his wealth of talented receivers. On the other hand, the Giants, after a hot start, are starting to stumble. They've lost 3 of their last 4 SU in which they lost the run game battle. In the first nine games, Barkley ran for 931 yards. The last two weeks, he's been held to 61 yards on 26 carries. Washington defense plays the run well; moreover, they get Chase Young back today to help feast on Daniel Jones and the beat-up Giants' offensive line. And defensively, Giants' dealing with injuries. Washington relatively healthy going into this one and have a bye next week. We'll look for their roll to continue. 

Titans/Eagles 1:00: Titans a dangerous road team that's won 5 straight ATS on the road (4-1 SU). Eagles are a legitimate NFC contender with a potent Top 3 offense. But Titans have an underrated defense that stiffens in the red zone (18.6 PPG allowed. Eagles on the other hand, have few flaws; however, they're missing their ball hawking S Gardner-Johnson (lacerated kidney), and although Blankenship looked solid in that reserve role last week, he's still just a rookie. Look for King Henry and the play action game of Tannehill and company to get it going this week. Eagles have been vulnerable to strong run games this season. Titans are a sweet 18-7 ATS on the road vs the NFC East including 9-1 ATS in the last 10. Tennessee the call. 

Bills/Patriots 8:15: Patriots in a desperation mode with an almost "must win" scenario. Bills and Miami are tied in the AFC East while New England sits in 4th place behind the Jets. Huge revenge match for NE. They had nearly a year to stew over their blowout loss in the playoffs to Buffalo. Tonight, they're catching the 1-4 ATS Bills. Bills' Josh Allen not the same since that November 6th loss to the Jets. He's dealing with the lingering effects of an elbow (UCL) injury. Even before the injury, he's had uncharacteristic interception problems. Over the last 5 games, he's thrown 7 INTs. It won't help that his RT Dawkins (ankle) is out. Patriots' #4 ranked defense should have an adequate plan on stopping Allen, not only through the air but on foot; after all, he leads the team in rushing too. Let's hope Patriots' defense learned their lesson from getting gutted by QB Power on October 24th by Justin Fields of the Bears. Look for NE' defense to buckle down with Judon (13 sacks) and company. On the offensive end, Mac Jones actually playing pretty well. No interceptions over the last 3 games.  He won't have Von Miller (knee) racing him down off the edge. And Jones gets back his starting center David Andrews tonight. The inclement weather (cold and windy) will most likely have RB Stevenson carrying lots of the load with Damien Harris (thigh) out. Bills have been vulnerable against the run over the last 5 games as well. Patriots have a solid winning history on Thursday nights, and we'll give them the edge here. Take the points. 

Steelers/Colts 8:15: When Indianapolis is committed to the run with Jonathan Taylor, they do well. Under Saturday, they started running the football more; consequently, Taylor ran for 147 vs the Raiders and 84 vs Philadelphia. It surely helped Ryan settle in a bit and not turn the ball over. Ryan has been sacked 29 times this season in nine starts, including 4 last week. Pittsburgh brings to the field a better run-stop-unit than LV and Philadelphia. Steelers are 6th in the NFL against the run allowing 103.4 YPG. Myles Jack has been instrumental in helping in that area this year. Steelers will surely look to neutralize Taylor and, with T.J. Watt having a game under his belt following his injury, look to tee off on Ryan. Last year's Defensive MVP is a an offensive game wrecker. Heyward and improving Highsmith (9 sacks) give Pitt a formidable pass rush. Moreover, ball hawking FS Fitzpatrick is getting healthy again. Offensively, Steelers not prolific offensively, but getting better. RB Harris is starting to find room behind his line. He ran for 90 last week vs a pretty good Bengals' defense. And Pickett has completed a respectable 65.4% of his passes with no interceptions the last two games. Steelers aren't going to pack it in under Tomlin. Tomlin's 5-0 as a less than .500 team off a SU loss vs an opponent off a SU loss. And he's got a solid record as a MNF road dog at 12-8 ATS. Steelers the call. 

Raiders/Seahawks 4:05: Seahawks coming off a bye week after losing to TB in Germany. They're relatively healthy and should get the run game cooking with Kenneth Walker III behind an offensive line that seems to improve every week. And Geno Smith is feeding off the success of Wallker III with 73% completion and 108 passer rating (#2 in NFL). Seahawks' defense has also improved dramatically starting in mid-October. Raiders coming off a win at Denver but haven't won two straight all season. Seahawks won and covered two straight in this series and we'll look for the better coached Seahawks to deliver at home today.  

Denver/Carolina 1:00: Denver is the lowest scoring team in the NFL with just 14.7 PPG but they do have a top tier defense that keeps them in games. Carolina is not much better offensively. They're 31st in total YPG produced and average just 18.8 PPG. And Sam Darnold, who hasn't had success at this level, will get his first start of the season after Baker Mayfield flopped again in his bid to earn the starting QB position. Panthers' defense, which is lower tier in the league (19th), not good enough to overcome Carolina's offensive inefficiencies, including 15 turnovers (27th in league). Russell Wilson overdue to have a decent game despite the skill personnel injuries. Denver the call. 

Bengals/Titans 1:00: Revenge game for Vrabel and the Titans. Back on Jan 22nd in last season's post season play, Titans beat the Bengals every way imaginable except on the scoreboard. Titans sacked Burrows an incredible nine times but couldn't close the deal. Bengals most likely won't have superstar WR Chase (hip) back just yet. And Joe Mixon is in concussion protocol. Meanwhile, red hot ever since that blowout MNF loss at Buffalo on September 19th. Titans have won 7 of their last 8 games SU and 8-0 ATS run. Tannehill has been rock solid last two games as Burks (who I mentioned last week would step up) is emerging as a serious receiving threat to fill the void of the departed A.J. Brown (Eagles). And King Henry should get loose against a mediocre Bengals' run stop unit. On the other side of the ball, Titans yield in yardage but tighten in the red zone. It won't help that Autry (6.5 sacks) is out but Titans do get back Bud Dupree to help fill the void. Vrabel a sweet 11-3 ATS as a dog with revenge. Take the Titans. 

Bengals/Titans 1:00: Both of these offenses have gotten into rhythm. Joe Burrow has been on fire over the last few games as the Bengals dropped 42 and 37 on the Panthers and the Steelers, respectively. Meanwhile, Tannehill has been sharp over the last few games as well. Bengals' defense is yielding. Titans are 12-5-1 O/U after accumulating 250+ passing yards previously, and they're 11-5 O/U in November; moreover. Titans are 10-0 O/U at home vs .600 or less non division opponent. Bengals 7-1-1 O/U after scoring 30+. "Over" the call. 

Texans/Dolphins 1:00: Dolphins well rested and relatively healthy after coming off bye week. And that's bad news for a down and out Houston team coming off another loss last week. Houston benched QB Mills and will go with journeyman Kyle Allen. Not much of an upgrade. Look for Chubb and company to give him a rude welcome. On the other hand, yielding Houston defense could be in serious trouble with one of their top corners and #1 draft choice - Stingley (hamstring) most likely out; consequently, the Dolphins dynamic duo of Waddle and Hill should add significantly to their season totals in yards and TDs as they continue to mesh well with QB Tua. And if the Dolphins choose to run, they should be able to gut the worst run stop unit in the NFL that gives up 179 YPG. We'll lay the wood with Miami. 

Patriots/Vikings 8:20: Both of these teams have had their share of problems converting in the red zone. For the Patriots, with Josh McDaniels no longer coordinating the offense, they're reaching the goal line a poor 42.86% of the time - 31st in NFL just below the Broncos.  And over the last 3 weeks, Vikings converting in the red zone just 33.3% of the time. Patriots' defense remains solid against non-running QBs and we're most likely seeing more FG attempts instead of end zone dancing. Pats 3-14 O/U after scoring less than 15 points and 2-7 O/U in November. This series has gone 1-5 O/U in its last 6 meetings, and we'll stay "under" here. 

NY Giants/Cowboys 4:30: Under normal circumstances, NYG would be a nice play here; they've twice responded well the following week off a loss and they're in a revenge mode today from their earlier season 23-16 loss in East Rutherford. Plus, Cowboys have been a turkey on Thanksgiving going an abysmal 1-10 ATS. And Mike McCarthy sports a 1-6 ATS mark after scoring more than 35 points vs an opponent with revenge. For that alone, can't go heavy on Dallas; however, at a personnel standpoint, it's going to be tough for the Giants to move the football with a majority of their offensive line (LG Lemieux, C Feliciano, RT Neal) out and LT Thomas questionable. The Giants couldn't get RB Barkley going last week vs Detroit, running for just 22 yards on 15 carries. If Daniel Jones is expected to go to the air often, it will be big trouble vs the #1 sack team in the NFL. To make matters worse for NY, they lost emerging talented receiver Wan'Dale Robinson (ACL) last week. And the mediocre Giants' defense didn't hold up well vs Detroit last week. The Cowboys' offense is heating up now that Pollard is the full time RB. He's a mismatch nightmare on linebackers. NYG secondary is also in tatters, thinning out weekly. Adore' Jackson (knee) is the latest casualty. Technically, the Giants are just 2-14 ATS on the road with revenge off a SU loss vs a division opponent off a SU win. Sure, this isn't the same old Giants team of recent years, but hard to take the points here with limited horses to work with. We'll tread lightly with the Cowboys. 

Bills/Lions 12:30: Dan Campbell now 9-4 ATS at home leading the Lions. The three home games they lost this year were by a combined 11 points. Lions found the winning formula in their current three game win streak: Hold onto the ball (1 turnover) and defensively create turnovers (7 takeaways). Buffalo's QB Josh Allen not completely healthy with UCL injury. Turnovers have been keeping Buffalo from realizing explosive offensive potential. They're 30th in turning ball over. We'll look for the Lions to do what they do best at home under Campbell: Stay in games. Take the points. 

49ers/Cardinals 8:15: Played in Mexico City at historic Estadio Azteca Stadium. This game started at SF -5' but eventually jumped to 7'/8 where it stands now. Tempted to go with the dog here; after all, Arizona has virtually owned this series to the tune of 7-1 ATS. However, too many injuries on the Cardinals. Their offensive line is thinning and that's a problem vs the fierce pass rush of Bosa and company. QB Kyler Murray (hamstring) is not quite at his top speed and Colt McCoy is most likely to get the nod. I had McCoy and the Cardinals last week vs the Rams and he delivered. But SF defense a different animal. McCoy had quick releases last week on short routes to Hopkins and Moore. The longest completion was for 26 yards. SF sports one of the top defenses in the NFL across the board. Their defensive backs will most likely sit on a lot of those short routes making it a long day for McCoy. Offensively, the 49ers are near full strength with Garoppolo having a wealth of weaponry. Technically, in MNF, Arizona has not measured up well while SF has a rich history of winning. SF well prepared for this one after getting swept last year in this series. And they're looking to make a run for the division lead. Shanahan sports a strong 8-1 ATS mark off a SU win vs an opponent off a double-digit ATS win. We'll roll with SF.  

Cowboys/Vikings 4:25: Vikings last week laid to rest any doubt that they were a serious contender. Winning in Buffalo in mid-November is a validation and that they should be taken seriously; however, linemakers still cautious by making them a dog here. I'll take the points. Vikings have the run game with Cook (146 rush last week) to put a dent in the Cowboys' run-stop-unit ranked 29th (allow 143 YPG). And Cousins is loaded with skill weaponry now that TE Hockenson is in the mix. He clearly takes the pressure off superstar WR Jefferson and Thielen. Defensively, Minnesota is yielding; however, they capitalize on takeaways (16) and limit scoring (21.2 PPG). Za'Darius Smith, a huge off-season acquisition, teams with Danielle Hunter for a combined 15 sacks helps out the ball hawking secondary led by veterans C Patrick Peterson and S Harrison Smith. Prescott will surely be tested once again. In recent years, this series has been tightly contested with the winning margin at just 4 points or less. Cowboys haven't managed close games well in recent years under McCarthy; moreover, Cowboys a disturbing 0-13 ATS as a conference favorite of less than 4 points vs a .666 or greater opponent. Vikings the call. 

Lions/Giants 1:00: Giants playing good football en-route to their 7-2 SU/ATS mark. QB Daniel Jones has not thrown an interception in 6 straight games and RB Barkley is leading the league in rushing (931 yards). Defensively, they're yielding but toughen when it counts most. Giants are #2 in red zone defense allowing TDs just 38% of the time. Detroit, which is on a 2-0-win streak, has been extremely competitive and could easily have had a few more wins notched had it not been for critical late game mistakes. With that said, we'll go with the more well-disciplined team under Daboll to deliver the goods. 

Bears/Falcons 1:00: All of a sudden, the Bears are turning into an NFL offensive powerhouse.  They've notched 33, 29, 32, 30 points in their last 4 games, respectively. And in the process, they've played some pretty good defenses in New England, Dallas, Miami. Coming off a loss at home vs Detroit, Bears should get it done against the yielding defense of Atlanta which is in the bottom tier of the NFL for yardage and points allowed. Versatile QB Justin Fields has been the focal point of the offense launching the Bears to the #1 rushing attack in the NFL. Although Herbert (IR) won't play, Montgomery is very capable of getting the bulk of carries. And don't be surprised if Claypool emerges as a pass threat now that he's been worked in the fray for a few weeks; after all, Atlanta has the worst pass defense in the NFL. Offensively, Atlanta one dimensional as QB Mariota struggling to create a passing game ranked 31st in the NFL. Sure, Bears defense no longer Monsters of the Midway, and getting rid of Roquan Smith is still a mystery to me; however, his replacement Sanborn had 12 tackles, 9 solos and 2 sacks last week. Bears are 6-0 ATS as a dog of less than 6 points vs the NFC South. And they've covered 5 of the last 7 in Atlanta. Falcons started a red hot 6-0 ATS but have dropped 4 straight. Take the Bears today.

Titans/Packers 8:15: Titans' Derrick Henry was held to a season low 57 yards last week against the tough run stop unit of Denver; however, GB defense is yielding against the run (141 YPG allowed). GB is thin at LB with Rashan Gary and De'Vondre Cambell (knee) out. We'll look for Henry to get back on track to help open the play-action game for QB Tannehill. And Tennessee's defense has come a long way since getting torched by the Bills on MNF September 19th. The secondary has tightened holding up well since that disastrous outing in Buffalo. C Fulton should draw emerging weapon Christian Watson. And despite the injuries at strong safety, Andrew Adams is a capable vet to fill the role. And I like how the Titans' are getting after the QB; hopefully, dominating LDE Jeffrey Simmons (ankle) is good to go tonight to add to that pressure on Aarron Rodgers. Simmons is listed as questionable. Titans' defense has been solid against the run (#2) and slowing down RB Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon will be vital in handcuffing Rodgers without one of his favorite targets - WR Romeo Doubs. We'll look for the Titans to keep it tight tonight. 

Commanders/Eagles 8:15: Commanders should put up more of a fight this time around in this NFC East matchup. Eagles delivered a knockout back on September 25th. In that game, QB Wentz got sacked nine times. Commanders have gotten better since and are on a 3-0-1 ATS run with Heinicke in command of the offense. Heinicke is actually 8-2-1 ATS as a starter. And he'll have Washington's #1 draft pick - Dotson - back for this one. Sure, Eagles have the best corners in the NFL in Slay and Bradbury; however, Guardians have good skill weaponry with McLaurin, Samuel, Sims and even throw in speedster Dyami Brown. And if there is a weakness to the Eagles' defense, it's their run stop unit which got gashed by the 32nd rushing team in the NFL last week. Washington's Robinson and Gibson are able bodied running backs that can move the chains. Defensively, Washington might be outmatched with the explosive #1 offense of Philadelphia. The Commanders do, however, come after the QB recording 23 sacks and are in the top echelon of the NFL in pressure rate. The dog in this series is 3-1-1 ATS. We'll look for the revenge minded Commanders to cover. 

Cardinals/Rams 4:25: Analysis to follow...

Analysis to follow...

Seahawks/Bucs 9:30: Seahawks have progressively gotten better every week while TB has not. Seahawks on a 4-0 ATS run while TB is a money burning 0-6-1 in their last 7 games. Seahawks are relatively healthy with limited injuries while TB's offensive line keeps shuffling and top receiver Evans is nursing a sore ankle. Like the Seahawks' run game. Top Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III produced another impressive 100+ yard game last week. And the Seahawks are a sweet 5-1 ATS after rushing for more than 150+ yards. That run game surely opens the pass game for QB Geno Smith who is getting time behind the young but overachieving offensive line. On the other hand, TB run game is the worst in the NFL. And with the reshuffled offensive line, Brady should once again find difficultly getting the ball to his targets while facing the all improving Seattle defense that has made great strides over the last four weeks. Seahawks have had success traveling outside the United States whereas TB was 0-3 in London. We'll grab the Seahawks here. 

Falcons/Panthers 8:15: In this matchup on October 30th, Falcons won but failed to cover in a wild 37-34 OT win. The game for Atlanta was in the balance in the final seconds of regulation when an inexcusable breakdown in coverage cost them the cover. We'll look for Atlanta to learn from it and move forward. Last week, they had control of the game against the Chargers only to lose the ball on a takeaway late to set up the Chargers with a game winning kick for the SU loss and push (+3). Arthur Smith has his team on the cusp of winning games, but turnovers are hurting them. Fortunately, the Panthers are in worse shape. With their head coach fired, benched QB (Mayfield), two defensive assistants fired last week after their latest loss, the Panthers find ways to lose, such as in the waning seconds of the October 30th matchup. They're not ready for prime time yet. Unfortunately for them tonight, they'll see C. Patterson who didn't play on October 30th (knee). Interesting trends favoring Atlanta: Arthur Smith is 4-1 ATS vs an opponent off back-to-back SU losses. The Falcons are a perfect 10-0 ATS on the road off a non-division game vs a division opponent off back-to-back SU losses. Furthermore, Atlanta is a perfect 8-0 ATS as a favorite off a SU loss vs a division opponent with revenge off a road game. Falcons the call. 

Ravens/Saints 8:15: This line went from Ravens (-3) to (-1') after news broke TE Mark Andrews and RB Gus Edwards are out. I won't sweat it. Ravens' TE Likely turned in a stellar performance at Tampa Bay on Thursday the 27th. And veteran journeyman RB Kenyon Drake showed he still had plenty of juice left in him. The Baltimore offensive line is starting to gel as they wore out TB defense late last Thursday. Even RB Justice Hill is averaging 6.4 YPC in a limited role. Sure, Lamar Jackson won't have deep threat Bateman (out), but Duvernay has shown that he's capable of stepping up. Harbaugh has a next-man-up philosophy, and he gets the best out of his players. Saints' defensive secondary won't have star CB Lattimore, so there will be a void in the secondary for QB Jackson to exploit. On the other hand, Ravens' getting depth defensively as RDE Calais Campbell is good to go. And the Ravens absolutely stole Roquan Smith, arguably the best MLB in the NFL, from the Bears. He had a quick cram session and will play tonight. His superior instincts should make a seamless transition tonight. Definitely don't trust Dennis Allen as a HC; after all, he's 1-8 ATS off a SU win. And Andy Dalton has never been a consistent winner at QB. We'll grab the Ravens!

Seattle/Arizona 4:05: Seahawks dramatically turned their season around with a much-improved defense. And QB Geno Smith leads the league in completion percentage. Moreover, the run game is cooking behind rookie Walker III. Meanwhile, Arizona continues its struggles and underachieving under Kingsbury. Seattle won the first game of this division series back on October 16th 19-9 in Seattle. The Seahawks are a much better team now while the Cardinals continue to search for answers. Seattle is 6-2-1 ATS at Arizona and the road team is 11-4-1 ATS in this series. Seattle the call.  

Colts/Patriots 1:00: Colts struggling and making changes. OC Brady fired this week while versatile RB Hines was shipped to Buffalo. And Jonathon Taylor, who was brilliant last year running the rock, is no more (77 YPG). And he's OUT today. Ineffective QB Ryan remains on the bench while 2nd year QB Ehlinger will make his 2nd NFL start. Belichick feasts on rookies or inexperienced QBs and should dial up a solid defensive game plan. And he's a sweet 19-4 ATS at home vs an opponent off a SU loss. Patriots are 12-2 ATS at home off a division road game vs a non-division opponent. We'll look for NE to get it done. 

Chargers/Falcons 1:00: Falcons' secondary is not good and not well coached as exhibited last week in the waning seconds of what should have been a win and cover in regulation. And you would think Chargers' QB Herbert is licking his chops watching the Panthers/Falcons film of last week; however, Herbert won't have his top receiver Keenan Allan (hamstring) nor Mike Williams (ankle). Chargers had to bring up a practice squad player - Keelan Doss - who last played in 2020 with the Raiders in a limited role. Meanwhile, Falcons get back their top playmaker off the IR Patterson to add to an already strong offensive unit. Falcons have been a solid cover team this season and we'll stay on them here. 

Raiders/Jaguars 1:00: Can't trust Josh McDaniels laying points on the road. He's now 0-5 ATS with his less than .500 team against a less than .500 opponent. Jaguars are in games with a solid defense and productive offense (9th) but turnovers are doing them in. Look for them to clean it up today vs a Raiders' team that's not opportunistic defensively (32nd in the league forcing turnovers). And they allow 5 PPG more than the Jaguars do. Jaguars the call. 

Panthers/Bengals 1:00:  Both secondaries have thinned out with injuries. Carolina has S Burris (concussion) out and C Donte Jackson laboring with a sprained ankle. Bengals' QB Burrow should bounce back strong today despite the loss of Chase (hip). He still has Boyd, Higgins, TE Hurst and RB Mixon to go to. Bengals' ground game not good but could start cooking today vs the mediocre run-stop-unit of Panthers (23rd). On the other hand, Carolina will stay with P.J. Walker as their QB. And they should! He's in rhythm with receivers and putting points on the board; moreover, RB D'onta Foreman filling the RB void for McCaffrey (SF). He's running the rock hard and opening up the passing game. Bengals' secondary thinning with Awuzie (knee), Flowers (hamstring), Hilton (finger) all laboring. And the run stop unit of Cincy leaves much to be desired (21st). We got about 3 points of value with this total and I'm going "over". 

Eagles/Texans 8:15: Tried to make an argument for supporting the Texans here; however, I can't. They're bottom feeders of the league in scoring and allowing points. They have trouble running the football (92.4 YPG) aand expecting QB Mills to make plays with limited surrounding talent vs a top tier defense, is an uphill battle. Worse off, top vertical threat Cooks is out. Ball hawking Philadelphia secondary lead by "Big Play" Slay should continue to lead the league in takeaways after this one. Sure, dominant DT Jordan Davis is out, but Marlon Tuipolotu is pretty good and would start on 20 of 32 teams in the league. On the other hand, Eagles' offense is a well oiled machine. The Texans' secondary is one of the best in the league but Eagles also have a very effective run game (150 YPG) and that spells trouble for Houston. I don't like laying big numbers but will in this instance. 

Bengals/Browns 8:15: Trendy pick is the red-hot Bengals off 5 straight covers (4-1 SU). We'll buck the favorite and grab the home dog here. Browns off 4 straight losses and desperately need a win to get on track. We'll look for them to play with urgency here. The disturbing trend for the #3 rush team in the NFL is that they've been beaten in the rush stats for those four straight losses. That's highly uncharacteristic of Cleveland and they'll need to rely more on Chubb and Hunt than the arm of QB Brissett. Not having G Wyatt (out) is a big loss; however, Browns should win the run stats tonight against a mediocre (17th) run-stop-unit of Cincinnati (allow 119 YPG). As for Cincinnati, losing Ja"Marr Chase is a huge loss for Joe Burrow. Although he does have Higgins and Boyd to pick up some of the slack, and C Ward (concussion) is out, the ground game lags (30th) as Joe Mixon cannot get loose this season. And the Bengals' offensive line still is not protecting him well. He was sacked 3X and hurried a lot last week vs the light sacking defense of Atlanta. Cleveland can bring the rush with Garrett, Clowney and company. Browns swept this series last year and Stefanski is 4-0 SU vs the Bengals. Browns overdue to turn in a good performance and it should come here. 

49ers/Rams 4:25: 49ers are 7-0 SU vs the Rams during the regular season but the eighth won't be a charm. 49ers off two straight losses you would think be ready to get it rolling like they did last season after four straight losses, but injuries to key personnel will make it tough here. Major playmaker Deebo Samuel (hamstring) is out and key blocking component FB Kyle Juszcyk (finger). And defensively, SF will continue to miss DT Armstead, and solid run-stopper WLB Greenlaw (calf) won't play. Meanwhile, LA Rams had a bye week to heal up and find a way to finally beat the 49ers. This is a pretty good spot for them to get er done; after all, Rams are 11-4-1 ATS off a bye week, and 9-1 ATS with rest vs an opponent with winning percentage less than .666. Stafford will have an extra target with speedy target Van Jefferson (off IR) to stretch the field. Moreover, having starting C Brian Allen back will help stabilize an offensive line that's been in a state of flux for most of the season.  Dog 7-1 ATS in this series and take the point with the home team. 

Patriots/Jets 1:00: Based on what the Jets have been doing and NE on a short week (off MNF), Jets seem to be the call getting points at home. But a second glance gives the edge to NE. Jets' running back Breece Hall (ACL), who went down last week at Denver, is a big loss for the Jets. Patriots are coming off a disturbing loss at home to Chicago; a game in which their defense was not prepared for Justin Fields' QB Power. Today, Patriots should be well locked in vs their AFC East rival; after all, they've won 12 straight vs the Jets and 15 of last 16, including a blowout sweep last season. Moreover, Belichick is a sweet 13-3 ATS as a favorite vs an opponent off back-to-back SU/ATS wins, 10-0 ATS after allowing 33 or more points, and 12-2 ATS when they're less than .500 vs an opponent off SU/ATS non division wins. And throw in that they're 7-0 ATS off a double-digit loss at home, we'll roll with New England. 

Panthers/Falcons 1:00: Up until last week, Falcons were in every game with a perfect 6-0 ATS mark. Then they faced a geared-up Bengals team with Joe Burrow in top form. Today, they face a Panthers team that's coming off a whipping of a rapidly declining TB team. P.J. Walker is a good backup QB but is no Joe Burrow and doesn't have the vertical game to stretch the Falcons' secondary. Falcons' offense, on the other hand, can move the football. Arthur Smith's ground attack behind Mariota and RB Tyler Allgeier should put a dent in the Panthers' defense. Falcons receiving weapons London and Pitts overdue to have a big game. Falcons covered 5 of the last 7 in this series in Atlanta and we'll grab them here. Falcons the call. 

Ravens/Bucs 8:15: TB struggling and the opportunity for a win would seem to come tonight; after all, going against Brady off two straight losses is like playing with fire; however, TB dealing with injuries to key personnel limits TB success. The strength of TB's defense under Bowles has been stopping the run, forcing third and long when they can bring pressure on the QB while locking down defenders in the secondary. Tonight, TB will be thin in the secondary without corners Murphy-Bunting (quad) and Carlton Davis III (hip); moreover, key playmaker S Winfield Jr. (concussion); consequently, they're vulnerable to explosive plays. Ravens' WR Duvernay, and TE Andrews, which the offense is run through, should be able to exploit that stronghold void. TB run defense, which was at the top of the NFL last season, is now in the lower half tier (17th). Lamar Jackson and company (5th rushing offense) will surely try to establish that run game tonight. On the other hand, TB run game - at the very bottom of the league (64.4 YPG), puts more pressure on Brady, his reshuffled front line, and limited receiving weapons. With the road team 5-0 ATS in this series, we'll grab the Ravens.

Bears/Patriots 8:15: Heavy action on the Patriots and I'm going where the action is going. Patriots off two impressive wins. Their offense is starting to gel for they've outgained 4 of their last 5 opponents. If Mac Jones (ankle) is good to go, that's fine; if not, Zappe has proved to be a dependable backup. Belichick is the master of attacking weaknesses in a team and Chicago has their share. Bears have not been good run-stoppers allowing a generous 163 YPG (31st) and 4.8 YPC (24th). Look for the Patriots to pound RBs Harris and Stevenson between the tackles to take pressure off Zappe or Jones. Inclement weather should dictate a ball control game. As for Chicago and their 30th ranked offense (yards and points), they do run the ball well (171 YPG - 2nd in NFL); consequently, Belichick will surely direct his defensive game plan around stopping Herbert and Montgomery. One dimensional teams rarely beat Belichick. And Chicago's Fields has been sacked 23X this season, that's once every five pass attempts. Judon and company will surely be licking chops with Chicago playing behind the sticks most of the game. Patriots a sweet 18-3 ATS at home vs an opponent off a SU loss. And they're a sweet 14-1 ATS off a non-division game vs a less than .500 opponent off a SU loss of more than 4 points. Patriots the call. 

Bears/Patriots 8:15: Both of these teams have been turnover laden this season (combined 21 turnovers between them). And defensively, they are both opportunistic with a combined 17. The sloppy and cold Foxborough should dictate a ball control offensive attack with few, if any, explosive plays. And Fields has Mooney as his only vertical threat. Surely, Belichick will see to it that he's locked down. Patriots an amazing 1-13 O/U as a non-conference favorite of more than 1 point. Bears 1-10 O/U vs non-conference opponent with line >40 points. "Under" the call.  

Chiefs/49ers 4:25: Both teams coming off a loss but look for KC to deliver here. 49ers' HC Shanahan a money burning 0-12 ATS at home off non-division vs an opponent off a SU loss. Sure, 49ers getting a bit healthier with impact players DE Bosa, LT Trent Williams, CB Ward, SS Hufanga all looking to play after missing time last week; moreover, new acquisition RB McCaffrey should see some snaps. However, Not all good for SF. They're thin at DT with Armstead and Kinlaw. Wouldn't be surprised if KC utilized versatile RB Edwards-Helaire in the running game more to open up the pass game more for Mahomes. With an open date next week, we'll look for KC to pull out all stops and deliver. 

Jets/Broncos 4:05: Both teams bring top tier defenses to the field that play hard and create turnovers. It just so happens that the Jets' offense is turnover prone (9) and the Broncos' offense is stuck in neutral (32nd in scoring points). QB Brett Rypien will start in place of the injured Russell Wilson; consequently, Saleh and the Jets are salivating. Jets are 1-8 O/U off a SU win of 14+, and they're 5-11 O/U after allowing less than 15 points. Broncos on a 1-5 O/U run and 3-7 O/U off a SU loss. This series has gone 1-4 O/U in Denver including the last 3. "Under" the call. 

Texans/Raiders 4:05: Both teams coming off a bye. Texans went into their bye feeling pretty good after knocking off Jacksonville. Las Vegas went into theirs following a heartbreaking loss to KC. Raiders are 0-5 ATS following a bye week. Raiders can hang with top opposition, as exhibited in all their games. They do, however, have finishing games as demonstrated vs the Chargers, Titans, Cardinals, and Chiefs. Moreover, they're 0-4 ATS vs teams under .500. And their coach - McDaniels fits right in for he went 0-4 ATS with Denver as a less than .500 team taking on a less than .500 team. Houston is a team that shows ugly stats at the bottom of the league in offensive production and giving up yards defensively; however, a closer look reveals a strong defensive secondary that's given QBs fits getting in the end zone. Texans have given up just 19.8 PPG and are opportunistic creating turnovers (8). We'll look for Houston to do what they do best - stick around and make it interesting. Take the TD

Falcons/Bengals 1:00: Falcons are a covering machine (6-0 ATS) and I'm staying on them here. They've found ways to win on special teams, creating turnovers and running the football. The #3 rushing team in the NFL should find more room to run against a sluggish run-stop-unit of Cincinnati which is most likely without their top run-stopper MLB Logan Wilson (shoulder). And their defensive interior is thin with Josh Tupou out. Arthur Smith has used veteran journeyman - Marcus Mariota (NFC Offensive Player of the Week) well as his wheels look healthy again. And never mind that Patterson is on the IR, Tyler Allgeier, who was an absolute beast at BYU, is picking up the run slack duty very well. With London and TE Pitts healthy, Falcons once again are dangerous. Cincinnati offense having difficulty unleashing their run game with Mixon (3.3 YPC) and 20th in NFL; consequently, Burrow is a sitting duck most of the game until his big game heroics come into play late. The song remains the same today. Take Atlanta to cover. 

Saints/Cardinals 8:15: Cardinals can't be trusted as a favorite under Kingsbury (8-15) nor on Thursday Night (0-4 ATS). Their offensive line is in tatters with C Hudson (knee) and LG Pugh (ACL) out. Sure, DeAndre Hopkins is back off the suspended list and they just acquired Robbie Anderson from Carolina on Monday. I don't see the chemistry developing this soon with an offense that's already struggling. New Orleans is surely not a comfortable selection either, but they are 13-2 ATS on the road off SU/ATS loss. Saints' offense had problems with turnovers but did clean it up this past Sunday. Winston most likely back at the helm and should have Olave (cleared to play) back in action. Saints have a decent run game (#7) utilizing Hill and Kamara. Saints are actually averaging a full yard per play better than Arizona. We'll give the edge to New Orleans.