Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-07-21 | Chiefs v. Bucs OVER 56 | 9-31 | Loss | -103 | 51 h 18 m | Show | |
101 Kansas City at Tampa Bay Super Bowls are tough to handicap with the two weeks between games and all the hoopla. But we will do our best to try to provide youth a winner. In our opinion the side outcome is a tossup. Kansas City has the better offense, Tampa Bay the better defense. The only concern we have with the Chiefs is the weak offensive line. Because of that and the Buccaneers strong defensive run stoppage, we think we have some value in the total. Kansas City has an elite quarterback and terrific receivers. Andy Reid is one of the top coaches in the league, and he’s been money in the bank with extra time to prepare. Therefore we can expect the Chiefs to virtually abandon the running attack. That means short quick throws from the pocket for Kansas City. It’s the best way to take advantage of this Buccaneers defense. In turn, look for Tampa Bay to try to match the Chiefs on the scoreboard by doing much of the same. Unlike a regular season game where you may let up on a team in case you play them later, the pressure will be constant from the team in the lead. We are well aware that 6 of the 7 Super Bowl games with totals in the 50’s have gone under. But that only gives us additional value here. PLAY OVER L Bell under rushing yards Mahomes pass attempts over Second half more points than first No missed pat |
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01-17-21 | Bucs v. Saints -3 | 30-20 | Loss | -106 | 29 h 18 m | Show | |
308 Tampa Bay at New Orleans We’ve watched both of the previous meetings and it’s clear that this is a bad matchup for Tom Brady and the Bucs. He doesn’t have the ability to throw the ball long with accuracy against this defense. A stop unit very much superior to the Bucs defense. Drew Brees is much like Brady, in that he doesn’t have the arm strength. But he has been playing in this offense for years, and he never was a gun slinger. Teams that have beaten the opposition twice previously have won over 65% in this third meeting. The better team at home gets it done. PLAY NEW ORLEANS |
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01-17-21 | Browns v. Chiefs OVER 57 | Top | 17-22 | Loss | -104 | 26 h 53 m | Show |
305 Cleveland at Kansas City In order to compete with the Chiefs you need to match them on the scoreboard. This Cleveland team has the ability to do so. It’s the most explosive running attack in the NFL, and KC is weak against the run. The Chiefs should have a field day passing on this Browns defense. Sure Cleveland will get its two best secondary players back, but Kansas City has more than two major weapons in the passing game. The Browns are extremely weak covering tight ends, so Kelce should have a monster day. We expect this game to be high scoring with both teams finding plenty of success. PLAY OVER |
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01-16-21 | Rams v. Packers UNDER 45.5 | Top | 18-32 | Loss | -101 | 77 h 45 m | Show |
302 Los Angeles at Green Bay This Rams defense is legit, holding 8 of 17 opponents this year to it’s three lowest yardage totals on the season. And it’s getting better as the year has gone on. In fact, 4 of the last 5 opponents have been held to bottom three seasonal outputs. The only team to have any yardage success, was the Jets in that shocking 17 point underdog upset. The Rams are starting a quarterback with a broken thumb on his throwing hand in a cold weather game. Not the ideal situation for a warm weather visitor. With offenses struggling we expect this to be a tightly fought low scoring affair. PLAY UNDER |
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01-11-21 | Ohio State v. Alabama OVER 74.5 | Top | 24-52 | Win | 100 | 79 h 4 m | Show |
499 Ohio State & Alabama We are taught to buy low and sell high in sports betting. Ohio State is off its best game of the season by far, with a 144.7 game grade according to Phil Steele. The previous high was against Michigan State 129.9. Ohio State has a tremendous +2.8 ypc advantage (6.0-3.2). Offensively Ohio State was either first or second in yards vs every opponent they played this season. The Buckeyes really only played against one good QB all season, last week against Clemson, and they permitted 400 passing yards. Alabama has a 1.9 ypc advantage on the season (5.1-3.2). The Tide defensively held just two teams to season lows in yardage, Mississippi State and Arkansas. Alabama struggled defensively against competent passing offenses. This game looks like a complete shootout as we can't see either defense making stops. Keep in mind both these teams played games in which they had big leads and turned off the offensive faucet. Don't think that will be the case here. PLAY OVER |
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01-10-21 | Browns v. Steelers -3.5 | 48-37 | Loss | -113 | 153 h 48 m | Show | |
152 Cleveland at Pittsburgh Simply put the Steelers own the Browns. Big Ben has owned Cleveland in his career. Even Sunday in a game the Steelers played backups, the Browns really struggled to get the outright victory. This line will rise during the week, so let’s get this play in right now. |
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01-03-21 | Jets +4.5 v. Patriots | Top | 14-28 | Loss | -110 | 158 h 23 m | Show |
115 NY Jets at New England Now that tanking for Trevor is over in New York, the Jets have played really good ball the last two weeks. It also helps that New York just played a Browns team without its top four receivers. Because the New England passing game downfield has been non-existent this season. The Patriots have a short week of preparation, from playing Monday night. This is also a quick revenge game for the Jets who should have beaten the Pats on national television just a few weeks ago. PLAY NEW YORK JETS |
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01-01-21 | Cincinnati +7 v. Georgia | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 23 h 43 m | Show |
327 Cincinnati & Georgia Plenty of reasons to back the Bearcats here. This is an undefeated team with a chance to play a top team from the SEC. Cincinnati feels they were slighted by the selection committee and have something to prove. Georgia on the other hand did not have dreams before the season to be playing in this game. Their expectations were much higher. Throw in the fact that many of the top players for the Bulldogs are sitting out in preparation for the draft. And we have a team likely not fully focused on the contest. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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12-27-20 | Bengals v. Texans -7.5 | Top | 37-31 | Loss | -108 | 2 h 28 m | Show |
464 Cincinnati at Houston The Bengals just played their Super Bowl on Monday night with a third string quarterback against their hated rival. Keep in mind even in that game how bad this offense has been. Now it’s taking on a Houston scoring unit that has moved the ball well all season. While Monday was the big game for the Bengals, this game means more for the disappointing Texans who actually entered the season with high expectations. Houston lets out some frustrations here. PLAY HOUSTON |
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12-26-20 | Liberty +7 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
283 Liberty & Coastal Carolina in Orlando Short and sweet. Our numbers have this as a four point advantage with the favorite. A one point loss cost Liberty its own undefeated season. And because of the national press Coastal has gotten, this line is inflated. Liberty has the ability to run the football extremely well and keep the opposition at bay. This game goes down to the final possession. PLAY LIBERTY |
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12-20-20 | 49ers -4 v. Cowboys | Top | 33-41 | Loss | -106 | 1 h 13 m | Show |
367 San Francisco at Dallas Late smart money has been backing the Niners this morning. We agree with the line move, good time to bet against a Cowboys team just playing out the season. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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12-19-20 | Oklahoma v. Iowa State +6 | Top | 27-21 | Push | 0 | 17 h 28 m | Show |
232 Oklahoma & Iowa State in Arlington Since Matt Campbell has come to Ames the Cyclones have fared well against the Sooners. Earlier this year Iowa State won 37-30, as a 7.5 point underdog. Last year as a 14.5 point underdog they lost by a single point. In 2018 Iowa State was an 18.5 point underdog and only lost by 10. In 2017 the Cyclones upset the Sooners 38-31 as a whopping 31 point underdog. In 2016 Iowa State lost by 10 while getting 20.5 points. That’s a perfect 5-0 ATS covering by 85 combined points. When looking at Phil Steele’s average game grades the Sooners should only be a 2.7 point favorite. Under Matt Campbell the Cyclones are 18-8 ATS as an underdog. Give us the better coached team catching points in a series they have dominated ATS. PLAY IOWA STATE |
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12-13-20 | Packers v. Lions OVER 54.5 | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 23 h 46 m | Show | |
151 Green Bay at Detroit Expect a shootout here between these two divisional rivals. Packers have scored 30 points or more in 9 of 12 games, only once have they scored less than 22. Green Bay ranks 2nd in red zone efficiency, while the Lions rank 11th. The Packers are 25th in defensive red zone efficiency, while the Lions rank 30th. Detroit tied a season high of 34 points last week after the head coach firing, the 460 yards was clearly a season high. Keep in mind Detroit was highly thought of in season win circles, the coaching change could bring that excitement back for the future. With neither team defending the pass well, this game should easily surpass this total. PLAY OVER |
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12-12-20 | Boise State v. Wyoming +10 | Top | 17-9 | Win | 100 | 25 h 56 m | Show |
130 Boise State at Wyoming The Broncos have dominated this series winning 13 of 14 meetings. But last years game went to overtime, and this line is simply too high. Tough to back a road favorite who is being outgained 4.6 yards per carry to 3.8 yards per carry on the ground. Despite the 4-1 record Boise State has given up seven first downs more than they have obtained. This is a big play offense that is taking on a stop unit that allows just 3.6 yards per carry on the season. Wyoming the past four games have permitted just 92, 158, 255 and 110 yards through the air. This is also just the second home game of the season for the Cowboys. The last five seasons Wyoming is 21-6 straight up at War Memorial Stadium. A win here extends the Cowboys non-losing seasons streak to five years, that’s important in these trying times. PLAY WYOMING |
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12-12-20 | Michigan State v. Penn State -14.5 | Top | 24-39 | Win | 100 | 117 h 45 m | Show |
392 Michigan State at Penn State The Spartan running attack has been pathetic all season averaging just 2.7 yards per carry. Only once has this team broken the 4 ypc barrier, and that was 4.1 ypc against Northwestern. The passing game was adequate the first two games but since then this team has thrown for 180, 167, 131 and 227 yards. In those last four games the Spartans have totaled 48 total points, just 12 per game. Now it takes on a rejuvenated Penn State squad. The Nittany Lions lost the turnover battle in each of its first five games. Tough to win and cover when you can’t hold on to the football. But the last two games turnovers were even and Penn State won both contests by a combined score of 50-24. On the season the Nittany Lions have a whopping +87 first down advantage when compared to the Spartans. This team made every mistake imaginable early, but the talent is now shining through. PLAY PENN STATE |
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12-07-20 | Bills +1 v. 49ers | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 34 h 39 m | Show | |
485 Buffalo & San Francisco in Arizona This game is being played in Arizona because of the San Francisco lockdown. The 49ers still aren’t healthy and are getting too much credit for its win over the Rams. This coaching staff always looks good against the Rams, so it’s coming off what is an artificial high. In gambling, like in the stock market you want to buy low and sell high. Right now the 49ers are clearly priced high. The Bills have the better rating across the board, and are the healthier team. PLAY BUFFALO |
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12-06-20 | Rams -2.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 38-28 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
LA Rams at Arizona The Rams have dominated this series, as Sean McVay has owned the Cardinals. Wins by 33, 16, 22, 27 and 7 points. The key to the Rams offensive success is keeping Goff clean, and the Cardinals don’t put a lot of pressure on the quarterback. Even less because of the Cardinals defensive injury situation. Add in the fact that Murray’s go to receiver Larry Fitzgerald is out, and we see a cheap number for Los Angeles. PLAY LOS ANGELES RAMS |
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12-05-20 | Alabama -28.5 v. LSU | 55-17 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
441 Alabama at LSU Major revenge game for the Tide as it lost to the eventual national champions 46-41 last year as a 6.5 point favorite. Alabama had won the past seven meetings including a 29 point victory the prior year. From a game score perspective the Tide should be a 27 point favorite, but there has never been any love between these two coaches. Alabama has the offense to score on every possession, and Saban has no qualms about adding on an additional score late. The Tigers simply don’t have the horses to keep this interesting. PLAY ALABAMA |
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12-05-20 | Texas v. Kansas State +7.5 | 69-31 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 19 m | Show | |
414 Texas at Kansas State The Wildcats have cashed four straight years against the Longhorns, and are 17-4 ATS in the role of a home underdog. The is a club that hasn’t lost in the home dog role under Chris Klieman. With a 4-5 record this is a very important game for this Manhattan program. The loss last week to Iowa State looks like it will cost Tom Herman his job. He came into Austin with much promise, but the team is only 30-18 under his direction. His teams have had a losing spread record each and every year when made a favorite. Texas only has two wins this year larger than the current line, a blowout win over UTEP and an 11 point victory hosting Baylor. This Texas team isn’t good enough to win on the road by margin. PLAY KANSAS STATE |
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12-04-20 | UL-Lafayette +3 v. Appalachian State | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
327 Louisiana Lafayette at Appalachian State This is the game the Ragin’ Cajuns have had circled all year. Billy Napier has yet to beat App State in his three years in Lafayette, and this team was built to change that outcome. With two losses in the Sun Belt Championship by 7 and 11 points. That’s five straight defeats in three years in this matchup, and eight straight losses overall. But our numbers have Lafayette being the slightly better team this year. Both teams have terrific running games, which rank evenly. But we really like how the visitor has played as of late. The last four games Louisiana has produced 511, 506, 440 and 614 yards. Averaging just under 45 points per game. We make this game a toss up, and getting points is a nice bonus. PLAY LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE |
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12-03-20 | Air Force -11 v. Utah State | Top | 35-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
325 Air Force at Utah State Huge edge for the Falcons here if you look at game grades. The lowest score of the season was 83.5 at San Jose State, while Utah State is averaging 70.1 on the season. So if Air Force matches its worst game, this line would make sense. Fortunately we expect a much better outcome for the Falcons here. Obviously Air Force wants to run the football, with a 5.8 ypc on the season. Utah State allows 5.1 ypc on the year. The Aggies have really struggled getting off the field, allowing 64 more first downs than they create. That’s not what you want to see when facing a team that runs the ball down your throat. Look for this game to be competitive early, but for the visitor to wear out the Aggies as the game progresses. PLAY AIR FORCE |
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11-29-20 | Browns v. Jaguars OVER 48.5 | Top | 27-25 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show |
257 Cleveland at Jacksonville Browns stats have been heavily influenced by bad weather games this season. Now playing in Florida in a game not expected to be heat related, we can see both these offenses having success. Both teams have major holes defensively in this game. Jacksonville is extremely thin in the defensive backfield. Cleveland on the other hand will be playing without its best two defenders, likely ProBowl talent. The line has risen this week but we still find plenty of value. PLAY OVER |
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11-28-20 | Texas Tech +11 v. Oklahoma State | 44-50 | Win | 100 | 20 h 30 m | Show | |
221 Texas Tech at Oklahoma State The Red Raiders have cashed four straight in this series by margins of 20, 38.5, 3.5 and 11 points. Although just 1-8 SU on the road under Matt Wells, we like the matchup here for the visitor. Oklahoma State started the season on fire, winning four straight before losing to Texas 41-34. Since that defeat the Cowboys have been outgained by Kansas State by 115 yards, and Oklahoma by 246 yards. In fact, the Sooners actually doubled the Oklahoma State yardage. These two clubs are much closer in talent than this number says, give us the Red Raiders plus the points. PLAY TEXAS TECH |
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11-28-20 | Northern Illinois v. Western Michigan -19 | 27-30 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 15 m | Show | |
198 Northern Illinois at Western Michigan The Husky defense hasn’t shown any semblance of stopping the opposition thus far. Allowing point totals of 49, 40 and 31 points in three straight losses. Northern is being outgained on the ground by 2.1 yards per attempt, as this team is losing the battle in the trenches badly. Western has scored 58, 41 and 52 points in its three contests. Producing yardage totals of 484, 437 and 628. The Bronco defense is the weakness allowing 4.8 yards per carry, but the Huskies haven’t shown any ability to run the football and shorten the game. Add in the fact that the host is playing with revenge for a 17-14 season ending loss as a 9 point favorite. And we have a fired up squad that can name the score. PLAY WESTERN MICHIGAN |
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11-23-20 | Rams v. Bucs -4.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 24 m | Show |
474 LA Rams at Tampa Bay This is a tough matchup for the Rams defense. While the numbers say this stop unit is elite, we look a bit deeper. The Rams haven’t played an offense with this many different weapons. Tampa Bay uses offensive schemes that the Rams struggle with. Offensively we all know how Goff struggles under pressure and on the road. Tampa Bay does a great job of getting pressure. Better than just about anyone on the Rams schedule. While we know the strength of this defense in rushing the QB from the inside, which is a problem for Brady. We have much more concerns about Goff and the LA offense. In what could turn into a lower scoring game, we back the MNF favorite. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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11-22-20 | Eagles v. Browns -2 | Top | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 162 h 49 m | Show |
452 Philadelphia at Cleveland Very surprised by the current line on this game as the Eagles continue to underperform. The only Philadelphia wins this season have come against a banged up 49ers team, the NY Giants and Dallas. Against the AFC Central the Eagles tied the Bengals and lost to Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Carson Wentz has struggled in the passing game all year, and Cleveland has limited 3 of the last 4 opponents to 153, 148 and 101 yards through the air. Cleveland has the much better run game and they take much better care of the football. The Browns loses this year have come against Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Oakland. Three of the top teams in the NFL. Against the NFC East they have won by 14 over Washington and 11 over Dallas. The Eagles simply don’t have the talent this year to compete on the road against a healthy Browns squad. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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11-21-20 | Boise State -14 v. Hawaii | 40-32 | Loss | -107 | 104 h 9 m | Show | |
423 Boise State at Hawaii The last three meetings were dominated by the Broncos, winning by margins of 21, 36 and 55 points. Many teams treat the trip to the islands as a vacation, but that won’t happen in the COVID era. Coming off seasons in which the Broncos won 12, 10, 11 and 10 games, the only blemish was a 51-17 beatdown at the hands of BYU. And we know now how good the Cougars are this year. We get a bit of line value here as the special teams, a major strength that has gone mostly unnoticed in betting markets. Hawaii has struggled when stepping up in class, losing to Wyoming by 24 and San Diego State by 24. The Warriors are in a really tough part of the schedule having just faced San Diego State, and having Nevada and San Jose State on deck. Boise State has been at it’s best in the role of road favorite. Posting a 35-17 spread mark over the past decade plus. PLAY BOISE STATE |
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11-21-20 | Indiana v. Ohio State OVER 66.5 | 35-42 | Win | 100 | 21 h 36 m | Show | |
357 Indiana at Ohio State The Hoosiers haven’t ran for more than 3.1 yards per carry in any game this season, averaging just 2.6 ypc on the year. As a three touchdown underdog Tom Allen knows the only way to complete with the Buckeyes is to put the ball in the air. Say what you want about the offenses of Michigan and Michigan State, but those are still good defensive teams. And Indiana produced 342 and 320 yards against them. Defensively Indiana has yet to play an offense with a legit quarterback. This week they may be playing the Heisman Trophy Winner. Ohio State can and will score on everyone. Putting up point totals of 52, 38 and 49 points this season. With Wisconsin on deck we can see the starters leaving the game early. That said the Buckeyes are dominant in recruiting and the young players will likely be favored over the Indiana starters. PLAY OVER |
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11-20-20 | New Mexico +10 v. Air Force | 0-28 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 17 m | Show | |
329 New Mexico at Air Force The new DC for the Lobos this year is Rocky Long. He was the head coach here for eleven years, and was the man in charge of San Diego State the past eight seasons. At SDST the Air Force was held to 24 points or less the past three meetings. So far at New Mexico the Lobos are permitting just 3.1 yards per carry. A far cry from the 4.3 ypc New Mexico permitted last year. The weakness for the Lobos is defending the pass, but Air Force has only completed 17 passes in three games. New Mexico has cashed 4 of the last 5 meetings with the Falcons. We feel this line is just too high to back the favorite. PLAY NEW MEXICO |
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11-19-20 | Cardinals v. Seahawks OVER 56.5 | 21-28 | Loss | -116 | 4 h 19 m | Show | |
321 Arizona at Seattle When breaking down these two teams by yards per play, we see just how dominant these two offenses are. Arizona ranks 1st in rushing yards per play at 5.28, and 7th in passing yards per play at 7.42. Seattle is 5th in passing yards per play at 7.80, and 6th in yards per rush at 4.87. In the NFL if you have a dual threat offense you can have much more success than only being good throwing or running the football. Defensively Arizona ranks 22nd defending the run, while Seattle is 28th vs the pass. So both teams have weaknesses that can be exploited. 71 points were scored in the first matchup. While second matchups typically are lower scoring, we simply can’t see how either of these two squads get stops. PLAY OVER |
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11-18-20 | Toledo v. Eastern Michigan +7 | Top | 45-28 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
312 Toledo at Eastern Michigan The Eagles have played Toledo virtually equal the past three seasons, despite playing two of those games on the road. In 2017 as a 13.5 point underdog Eastern lost by only five points. In 2018 Eastern won outright 28-26 as a 1.5 point underdog. Last year at Toledo the game went to overtime in a 37-34 loss as a 3.5 point underdog. In fact, the Eagles have covered each of the past four years. This despite the Rockets winning nine more games than the Eagles overall during that timeframe. Eastern Michigan is a tremendous underdog under Chris Creighton. Posting a 24-4-1 record when catching points the last 4+ seasons. With the Eagles coming in 0-2, we look for this to be a circled game for the host. The Rockets are only 3-9 straight up on the road as of late, including a last second loss at Western Michigan a week ago. PLAY EASTERN MICHIGAN |
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11-17-20 | Buffalo -31 v. Bowling Green | 42-17 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 6 m | Show | |
303 Buffalo at Bowing Green The best vs the worst in the Mid-American Conference face off tonight. The last two seasons the Bulls won by margins of 42 and 30 points, and this year the talent level is even greater. Explosiveness and finishing drives is the key to this handicap. Buffalo should be able to name the score with a passing explosiveness rate ranking of 7th in the country, against a Falcons pass defensive rating of 125th. The Bulls are also 1st in the country in power success rate, so the running game should move the chains regularly. The visitor ranks 10th in the nation in finishing drives, while BG ranks 124th defending that category. Bowling Green is 122nd in passing success while the Bulls defend at a 11th ranked clip. Finishing drives is also a struggle for BG ranking 125th while Buffalo is 17th defensively. With no lookahead in sight for the Bulls we expect this to be wire to wire domination. Let’s fade one of the two worst teams in the country as Buffalo wins in impressive fashion. PLAY BUFFALO |
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11-16-20 | Vikings v. Bears OVER 43.5 | Top | 19-13 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 3 m | Show |
275 Minnesota at Chicago It’s not been reported too much nationally, but the Vikings lead the league in passing yards per play, and overall yards per play offensively. As well as 5.46 ypp running the football which also leads the NFL. So we not only have the most proficient offense overall in yardage, but the team is equally good running and passing. Defensively the Vikings rank 30th overall in defensive yards permitted per game. The Bears have reassigned the play calling duties, and are going to play faster offensively. That should allow this offense to compete with the Minnesota scoring unit. This is an extremely low total considering league average right now is around 51 points. PLAY OVER |
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11-15-20 | Bucs -5.5 v. Panthers | 46-23 | Win | 100 | 67 h 18 m | Show | |
261 Tampa Bay at Carolina While the per game numbers won’t support this play, other factors have to be considered. Tampa Bay has lost three games to teams with a combined 17-8 record. Carolina has won three games against teams with a combined 10-15 record. The Bucs completely laid an egg on Monday Night Football. Tom Brady has a 67% cover rate following a loss. And make no mistake that was an embarrassing loss to the Saints. There is a 63 point net differential between these teams and Carolina is just 1-3 straight up at home. The Panthers will also be without McCaffrey once again in this contest. The Bucs defense has been outstanding all season and played terrible just six days ago. We look for a statement win for the Bucs. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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11-14-20 | Nevada -13.5 v. New Mexico | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 142 h 14 m | Show |
179 Nevada & New Mexico in Las Vegas This game has been moved to Las Vegas because of the high cover counts in New Mexico. The Wolf Pack have looked impressive out of the gate with Impressive wins over Wyoming, UNLV and Utah State. They outgained the opposition in those contests by a total of 616 yards. The passing game has produced 420, 350 and 421 yards. Over the past five seasons Nevada has faced New Mexico three times. Covering by margins of 7 1/2, 6 and 13 1/2 points. The Wolf Pack just played in this building two weeks ago, which should be a sizable advantage. Head Coach Jay Norvell is 6-2 ATS as a road favorite. New Mexico has posted a combined record of 8-30 straight up the past three plus seasons. With this game being moved, this will be the third of five straight games away from Albuquerque. The Lobos pass defense has been horrendous thus far, allowing 891 passing yards in two games. The opposition is completing 73.1% of its passes. With Nevada QB Carson Strong coming in with a 9 to 0 TD to INT ratio, as well as an outstanding 171.7 quarterback rating. This looks like a long night for this Lobos stop unit. PLAY NEVADA |
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11-14-20 | Louisville +3 v. Virginia | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -107 | 117 h 22 m | Show |
225 Louisville at Virginia This is the rescheduled game from a week ago which was postponed because of covid. Two weeks ago the Cardinals had nine players sit out the Virginia Tech game because of the virus, but the entire team has tested negative heading into this week. The Cardinals fought hard in a 42-35 loss to the Hokies, and are really looking forward to getting back on the field. Louisville has won f of the last 5 meetings in this series, including an outright underdog victory a year ago. Despite the 2-5 record coming into this game, having an extra week to prepare should really help Scott Satterfield in his second season. There is only one team in this matchup with big play ability, and that’s the Cardinals. In seven games the offense has produced 45 plays of 20 yards or more, while allowing just 31. Virginia on the other hand in six games have produced just 19 plays of 20 yards or more, while allowing a whopping 44. While Louisville enters this contest off a loss, the Cavaliers pulled a major upset of North Carolina last time out. That despite allowing 443 yards through the air to the Tar Heels. In the Virginia victories this season the Cavaliers have a +5 turnover advantage. Without the turnover edge this team has yet to taste victory. With Louisville dominating recent play, off a loss, and having a huge explosive play advantage, we will back the visitor. PLAY LOUISVILLE |
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11-14-20 | TCU v. West Virginia -3 | Top | 6-24 | Win | 100 | 136 h 50 m | Show |
142 TCU at West Virginia The Horned Frogs need to run the football to be effective. They are averaging 4.5 yards per carry. The passing game has struggled all year including managing just 73 yards last week hosting Texas Tech. Unfortunately they are going up against a West Virginia defense allowing just 3.3 yards per carry. The Mountaineers are even better against the pass, holding every team to 230 yards or less. Including 6 of 7 opponents to less than 190 yards. West Virginia is undefeated at home this season. They have covered by margins of 16 1/2, 23 1/2, 6 and 17 1/2 the last four years against TCU. The Mountaineers have the more complete offense and the better defense. This is always a tough place to play, especially for TCU who have been outscored the last two visits here by a combined score of 81-20. PLAY WEST VIRGINIA |
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11-14-20 | Indiana v. Michigan State +7 | Top | 24-0 | Loss | -104 | 45 h 48 m | Show |
164 Indiana at Michigan State The Hoosiers are now highly ranked after its blowout victory over Michigan. Now a perfect 3-0 on the young season. But when breaking down the Indiana games we see that they are being outgained per play 5.28 yards to 4.71 yards. The three teams they have beaten are a combined 2-4 straight up when not facing Indiana. When looking at turnover rates we see Indiana at +6 while Michigan State is -7. Regressing works in the favor of the home dog here. Both teams played Rutgers and Michigan. Indiana won both games with a combined yardage advantage of 199. Michigan State split with a yardage advantage of 90. The Spartans have won 9 of the last 10 games between these two clubs. Indiana also has a major lookahead with a trip to Ohio State on deck. We are not buying into the Hoosier hype. Take the points with the Spartans. PLAY MICHIGAN STATE |
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11-11-20 | Eastern Michigan v. Ball State OVER 61 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 3 h 38 m | Show |
117 Eastern Michigan at Ball State Putting this one up a bit late as we wanted to verify the weather. Looks like 41 degrees and clear with no chance of rain and only 7 mph winds. In other words good weather for an over bet. The last four meetings have shown point totals of 52, 62, 70 and 89 points, as this has been a high scoring series. Both offenses are stout, and can strike in a big way through the passing game. We have serious questions about these two stop units however. Each team allowed 30 points per game last year in MAC play, and neither team has addressed that side of the ball enough in the offseason. The Eagles didn’t have much of a run game last year, and produced just 1.9 ypr in the opener against Kent State. The only way Eastern can match Ball State offensively is to throw the ball, which lengthens the game. Look for this one to be a shootout. PLAY OVER |
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11-10-20 | Miami-OH +8.5 v. Buffalo | 10-42 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
111 Miami Ohio at Buffalo The Redhawks have won eight straight games decided by a touchdown or less. Chuck Martin since coming to Oxford has an outstanding 27-18 spread record as an underdog. Miami has beaten Buffalo 3 of the last 4 meetings including a 34-20 win last year as a two point underdog. Buffalo is expected to be the class of this conference, along with Western Michigan and Toledo. But the Redhawks are being undervalued in our eyes. This team returned 17 players from a MAC Championship squad, and the offense looks much better than a year ago. As we have seen many times this season, having a coaching staff that knows how to win close games is a blessing. Look for the Redhawks to be in this game throughout. PLAY MIAMI OHIO |
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11-08-20 | Seahawks v. Bills OVER 54.5 | 34-44 | Win | 100 | 3 h 27 m | Show | |
451 Seattle at Buffalo Wanted to wait for the latest weather reports before confirming this selection. Looks like 64 degrees and very light winds in Buffalo today. Seattle games are averaging 62 points so far this season, with every game reaching 53 or more points. The team is averaging 5.0 yards per carry and dominating through the air. Wilson is completing 71.5% of his passes, and nobody in the league throws the long ball better. Unfortunately for the Seahawks, the defense has really struggled this season. The opposition is gaining 359 yards through the air on average. Josh Allen has shown the ability to go up and down the field against a defense of this caliber. Scoring 30 or more points against the Dolphins, Rams and Raiders. The past three weeks have been lower scoring because of the weekly game plans. When you throw out the games against the limited offenses of the Jets and Patriots, the Bills have struggled. Buffalo has permitted 410 yards to Miami, 478 to the Rams, 383 to Vegas, 466 to the Chiefs. Tennessee was held to 334 yards but that added up to 42 points for the Titans. We view this as an up and down game with both teams having great success offensively. PLAY OVER |
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11-07-20 | Clemson -5.5 v. Notre Dame | 40-47 | Loss | -109 | 29 h 13 m | Show | |
401 Clemson at Notre Dame When you have elite talent and elite coaching, sometimes it’s hard to get motivated. That has been the case with the Tigers this year. The Tigers had just one game so far that drew any type of interest, and it resulted in a 25 point victory over Miami Florida. After a 73-7 blowout of Georgia Tech the team looked disinterested the past two games. Now with a full game of reps for this highly touted freshman quarterback, we once again see the Tigers with something to play for. Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly is 3-11 SU lifetime vs Top 10 opposition. Every time this team steps up it gets knocked back down by better coached teams. The speed differential in this game is huge, and the Irish have really struggled against better athletes. With Clemson coming in off two poor performances, we look for Dabo and company to lay the wood here. PLAY CLEMSON |
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11-07-20 | Michigan State v. Iowa -6.5 | 7-49 | Win | 100 | 45 h 21 m | Show | |
350 Michigan State at Iowa Great time to fade the Spartans after Mel Tucker’s biggest win of his coaching career. For a team like Michigan State, a win over either Michigan or Ohio State is a major accomplishment. Keep in mind the prior five games against those two resulted in losses by 34, 24, 20, 14 and 45 points. The Spartans have a brutal schedule remaining including Northwestern, Ohio State and Penn State. They were 0-3 ATS as a road dog a year ago. Iowa enters this game 0-2 on the season, but they outgained both Purdue and Northwestern. Two teams we have rated much better than this Michigan State squad. The last five plus years Iowa is 27-9 SU in Kinnick Stadium. In what will be a defensive battle we prefer the Hawkeyes with their backs to the wall. PLAY IOWA |
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11-07-20 | Tulane v. East Carolina +4 | 38-21 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 7 m | Show | |
318 Tulane at East Carolina The Pirates have won 8 of the last 9 meetings in Greenville, with the lone loss coming in overtime. After losing a game because of a terrible officials call, we expect the Pirates to play fired up football on Saturday. This is a team that has played with great heart this season after two separate Covid outbreaks. According to the coaching staff the team has had its best practice of the season this week. Despite the 1-2 record the past three games, East Carolina outgained all three opponents. Tulane is coming off a 38-3 blowout of Temple. This is a letdown spot for Tulane after facing the likes of UCF, SMU and Houston the previous three games before the Temple win. The Green Wave is on a current 3-8 SU run on the road. PLAY EAST CAROLINA |
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11-07-20 | West Virginia +7 v. Texas | Top | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 137 h 25 m | Show |
377 West Virginia at Texas The Mountaineers have won 3 of the last 5 meetings including two straight in Texas, both in the underdog role. Coming into this contest 0-2 on the road this season, makes sure Neal Brown and the coaching staff will have this team ready. QB Jarret Doege has an impressive 11 to 3 TD to INT ratio, and the running game has been solid. Defensively West Virginia is allowing just 2.9 yards per rush, and have 9 interceptions to 7 touchdowns allowed. Texas beat Oklahoma State a week ago, but only had a 3% chance of victory at the end of the game. In other words they were very lucky. Getting outgained 530 to 287 in yardage. The Longhorns took advantage of a +4 turnover edge. Texas has only produced one passing game of over 290 yards on the season, that was the opener against UTEP. Without having success through the air we see no way this host gets past this number. Keep in mind Texas is 6-11 ATS as a home favorite under Tom Herman. PLAY WEST VIRGINIA |
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11-05-20 | Wyoming -3 v. Colorado State | 24-34 | Loss | -113 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
305 Wyoming at Colorado State The Rams have dropped four straight to rival Wyoming, scoring just 58 points in the process. After four and three win seasons Colorado State hired former Boston College head coach Steve Addazio. We’ve never been a fan of the conservative Addazio, with his BC team averaging less than 30 points per game all but one of his seven seasons in Chestnut Hill. The Rams have played just one game, a 38-17 loss to a questionable Fresno State squad. This team has gone just 5-10 straight up at Canvas Stadium as of late. Wyoming has two games under its belt, winning big against Hawaii and taking Nevada to the wire. Craig Bohl is our favorite coach in this conference, and he has a 33-21 spread record his last for plus years in Laramie. Other than Boise State and Nevada, the Cowboys are the best of the bunch in the Mountain West. After dropping six straight games on the road, you can bet Bohl has his team ready. PLAY WYOMING |
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11-04-20 | Bowling Green v. Toledo -22 | Top | 3-38 | Win | 100 | 31 h 51 m | Show |
292 Bowling Green at Toledo How bad has it been for the Falcons to keep a talented quarterback? James Morgan transferred to FIU, Jarret Doege is now the starter at West Virginia, and last years QB Grant Loy is sitting the bench for Auburn. Junior Matt McDonald will be the signal caller this year after throwing eight passes the last two seasons at Boston College. The two deep chart features nine true freshmen and seven redshirt freshmen. Bowling Green had three victories a year ago. Beating FCS entrant Morgan State, Winless Akron, and a 20-7 upset win over these Rockets. Last year was the first time in over a decade the Rockets didn’t have a winning record. Toledo started the year losing to a solid Kentucky team, then reeled off four straight victories before the BG upset loss. That game completely turned around the Toledo season, so we know Jason Candle has circled this game for the hosts. The Rockets return 14 starters and have a much more veteran team than the Falcons. This should get ugly. PLAY TOLEDO |
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11-01-20 | 49ers v. Seahawks -2.5 | 27-37 | Win | 100 | 76 h 16 m | Show | |
270 San Francisco at Seattle Despite the Seahawks having a half game lead over the Cardinals and Rams, this is an extremely important divisional game for the host. A loss here would make Seattle 0-2 in the division, while the Cardinals are 2-0 and the 49ers 2-1 with the victory. Seattle has a habit of playing to the competition which makes them a questionable big favorite. But in a close lined game we will put our trust in Russell Westbrook. San Francisco is getting healthier, but still has weaknesses that can be attacked. We like the chances of the host. PLAY SEATTLE |
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11-01-20 | Patriots +3.5 v. Bills | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 73 h 2 m | Show | |
255 New England at Buffalo Despite the records being 2-4 for the Pats and 5-2 for the Bills, Buffalo only has a 24 point plus/minus advantage on the season over the Patriots. With the Dolphins deciding to start a rookie quarterback the rest of this season, the Bills can really distance themselves from the rest of the division with a victory here. The most acclaimed coach in my lifetime has his back to the wall. New England is an underdog to a division rival in a do or die game for the Pats. This is a team that has dominated this division for years and years. We will take our chances on the visitor here. PLAY NEW ENGLAND |
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11-01-20 | Raiders v. Browns -2.5 | Top | 16-6 | Loss | -110 | 138 h 19 m | Show |
260 Las Vegas at Cleveland The key to slowing down this Browns offense is to put pressure on Baker Mayfield. Cleveland has beaten every team not excelling in defensive sacks per pass attempt. The two Cleveland losses were to the Steelers and Ravens. That's the 1st and 4th ranked in that defensive category. The Raiders rank 25th in the league. When facing teams not ranked in the top four, Cleveland has scored 35, 34, 49, 32 and 37 points. Lay the number with the Browns in what looks to be a big offensive game for the host. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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10-31-20 | Charlotte +10 v. Duke | Top | 19-53 | Loss | -109 | 29 h 44 m | Show |
125 Charlotte at Duke Big game for Will Healy and the 49ers who get the rare opportunity of taking on in-state rival Duke. QB Chris Reynolds had an excellent QB rating a year ago at 153.6, and he’s picked right back up this year. Duke has shot themselves in the foot all season when it comes to turnovers. Losing 10 of 13 fumbles and throwing 12 interceptions to only 6 touchdowns. The team passer rating is only 106.68 on the year. Chase Brice, the Clemson transfer has been a major disappointment. Charlotte takes care of the football with only three turnovers on the season. Can’t see the Blue Devils getting right against this well coached veteran Charlotte team. PLAY CHARLOTTE |
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10-31-20 | Rice +1.5 v. Southern Miss | Top | 30-6 | Win | 100 | 25 h 43 m | Show |
155 Rice at Southern Miss Rice showed a great deal of heart in losing to Middle Tennessee State in overtime a week ago. It was the first game action of the season for the Owls, who started slowly as expected. But after adjusting to the game speed it was clear Rice was the better team. Now after the quadruple doink field goal miss, we expect the Owls to bounce back big time on Saturday. Southern Miss is down to its third head coach this season. As Scotty Walden took a step down in our opinion to take the Austin Peay job. If your interim coach would bale in the middle of a season, what does that tell you about this job. Enough said, go Owls! PLAY RICE |
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10-30-20 | East Carolina +17 v. Tulsa | 30-34 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
107 East Carolina at Tulsa The Pirates were missing key players last time out against Navy, but should be close to full strength on Friday. QB Holton Ahlers returns, as well as key players Tank Robinson and Darius Pinnix. Tulsa has been a major surprise this season under Philip Montgomery with a 2-1 record including an upset at Central Florida. But keep in mind this team won two games in 2017, three in 2018 and only four last year. Just a year ago the Golden Hurricane permitted 31 points per game, and this year brought back only four defensive starters. In a small sample Tulsa has looked great, but how much of this improvement can we count on. East Carolina has an extra week to prepare, is off a loss, and are looking to avenge a 25 point loss to Tulsa in the season finale last year. PLAY EAST CAROLINA |
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10-25-20 | Panthers +7 v. Saints | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 25 h 20 m | Show |
461 Carolina at New Orleans Who has the better offense in this game? If you said the Saints you may want to step back and look at the numbers. New Orleans ranks 14th in passing yards per play and 22nd in rushing yards per play. And it gets even worse for the Saints as they are missing key members of this offense this week. Carolina by the way comes in at 8th and 19th respectively. With the Panthers defense ranking 2nd in passing yards per play allowed at 5.94, we have a clear play on the touchdown underdog. PLAY CAROLINA |
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10-24-20 | Cincinnati +2.5 v. SMU | Top | 42-13 | Win | 100 | 31 h 37 m | Show |
347 Cincinnati at SMU Big three weeks for the Bearcats who play the Mustangs, Memphis and Houston. Luke Fickell has done a terrific job here off back to back 11 win seasons. This defense allowed 20.6 points per game a year ago and brought back nine starters. After three games Cincinnati has intercepted 7 passes while allowing exactly zero passing touchdowns. SMU and former Texas standout Shane Buechele lead a strong passing game for the Mustangs. But this team hasn’t faced a defense anywhere near as good as the Bearcats. Cincinnati is currently ranked in the Top 10. In Sonny Dykes career his teams are 0-7 SU vs Top 10 and 4-17 SU vs Top 25 opposition. We will back the Bearcats here. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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10-24-20 | Middle Tennessee State v. Rice -3.5 | 40-34 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 13 m | Show | |
394 Middle Tennessee at Rice Strange scheduling situation here as the Blue Raiders will be playing its 7th game of the season, while the Owls play their first. Middle Tennessee has been a major disappointment this year and the coaching staff is talking about how beat up this team is. The second half last week showed this team to be fading fast as the end couldn’t come fast enough. Rice is expected to be much improved this third year under Mike Bloomgren. The Owls finished last year with three straight wins against this Blue Raiders team, North Texas and UTEP. Rice was catching 14 against Middle Tennessee a year ago, winning 31-28. Let’s back the fresh team here to continue its uptick. PLAY RICE |
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10-24-20 | Rutgers +13.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 38-27 | Win | 100 | 70 h 3 m | Show |
339 Rutgers at Michigan State What does it say about this Michigan State program that it replaced a legend in Mark Dantonio, with Mel Tucker who went 5-7 in his only head coaching job a year ago at Colorado. The same 5-7 record the Buffaloes had in each of the two prior seasons. The Spartans averaged only 22 points per game in 2019, and still haven’t announced who the starting quarterback is. Defensively Michigan State only brings back three starters, so questions abound all over this roster. Greg Schiano is back in his familiar territory of New Brunswick. He started here in 2001 and left after the 2011 season. He has a winning record with the Knights, 68-67 in his previous tenure. That’s enough to celebrate his return to New Jersey. The Scarlet Knights added some big transfers including QN Noah Vedral from Nebraska. Overall 16 starters return to what looks to be a far more physical squad. Rutgers is also looking to avenge a 27-0 shutout in its final home game of 2019. Money has come in on Rutgers since the opener, and that’s smart money. Nobody but pros would step in to back a 3-21 football team the past two seasons. We agree with the move as Schiano has proven himself to be a quality college football head coach, something this state hasn’t seen since he left close to a decade ago. PLAY RUTGERS |
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10-23-20 | UL-Lafayette v. UAB +2.5 | 24-20 | Loss | -109 | 29 h 8 m | Show | |
310 UL Lafayette at UAB The Blazers are a perfect 21-0 SU at Legion Field since a return to college football in 2017. That includes four outright victories in the underdog role. The only loss on the season for UAB was a 17 point loss at Miami Florida. The Ragin’ Cajuns were 11-3 last year and were highly ranked earlier in the season. But this team has continued to disappoint its backers. While 3-1 SU on the year ULL hasn’t covered a contest since the opening game upset at Iowa State. Just can’t trust this team to lay points into a major home field advantage for the Blazers. PLAY UAB |
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10-22-20 | Arkansas State +13.5 v. Appalachian State | 17-45 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 21 m | Show | |
305 Arkansas State at Appalachian State The Red Wolves have been able to move the ball on everyone. The two quarterback attack has produced 191 points in five games. That includes covers against Memphis and Kansas State, the later being an outright victory. The team has a terrific 23 to 4 TD to INT ratio. App State hasn’t played a game since September 26th against Campbell. The Mountaineers have yet to provide its backers with a spread cover. Zac Thomas the senior QB has a 2 to 2 TD to INT ratio in three games. This line is simply too high with two quality signal callers for the Red Wolves. PLAY ARKANSAS STATE |
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10-18-20 | Rams -3 v. 49ers | Top | 16-24 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 2 m | Show |
273 Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco The Rams rank 1st in the NFL in average yards per pass attempt at 8.68, the 49ers 23rd at 6.68. That means every time one of these quarterbacks go back for a pass the Rams have a 2 yard advantage offensively. The Rams also lead the NFL allowing just 5.56 ypp, while the Niners sit 13th at 6.74. So the passing advantage is huge for the visitor. LA also is 2nd in defensive sacks per attempt. The 49ers are getting healthier but the Rams are still better in the trenches. PLAY LOS ANGELES RAMS |
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10-18-20 | Falcons v. Vikings -3.5 | Top | 40-23 | Loss | -109 | 95 h 16 m | Show |
256 Atlanta at Minnesota The Texans had success last week after firing it's head coach in the middle of the season. But that's a rarity when it comes to covering the spread. Atlanta cleaned house after losing on Sunday, but this team has more problems than the head coach and GM. The Falcons defense continues to struggle against teams it should be able to beat. Blowing leads has been the norm, and this club is now 0-5 on the season. With a veteran team we can only see things getting worse. Minnesota has played better as of late and they almost pulled off the upset at Seattle on Sunday. This team continues to play with heart, something we just haven't seen from the Falcons. Grab this play now before the line rises. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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10-18-20 | Texans +3.5 v. Titans | Top | 36-42 | Loss | -115 | 71 h 37 m | Show |
257 Houston at Tennessee Despite the current records we feel the Texans to have the better roster. And now without a Head Coach/GM that held them back, there is plenty of value on the visitor. The Texans rank 3rd in the NFL in passing yards per play, Tennessee 14th. Houston also runs the ball better than the Titans, 4.15 ypr to 3.87. Defensively Tennessee does have a slight edge defending the pass, 15th to 17th. But once again Houston’s defense against the run is better, 25th to 32nd and dead last for Tennessee. The Titans allow 5.49 yards per rush, which is higher than the LA Rams allow per pass! With home field advantage being lower than ever, we will back the better team catching points. PLAY HOUSTON |
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10-17-20 | Marshall v. Louisiana Tech +13.5 | Top | 35-17 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 39 m | Show |
162 Marshall at Louisiana Tech We’ve been a big believer in the Thundering Herd this year, as Doc Holliday continues to be one of the best coaches in the college ranks. That said, this team is really being priced high here against a quality Bulldogs squad. Over the last decade the Herd is only 11-19-2 ATS as a road favorite, and haven’t posted a winning mark in that regard since 2015. Tech is coming in off a ten win season in 2019, and Skip Holtz has a history of rewarding backers in the underdog role. The Bulldogs struggled against UTEP last week, but this Miners team is much better than any other squad Dana Dimel has coached in El Paso. Since 2014 Louisiana Tech is 28-8 straight up at home. Throw in the fact that this team was embarrassed by Marshall last year 31-10, and we have a terrific revenge situation. PLAY LOUISIANA TECH |
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10-17-20 | Kansas v. West Virginia -22 | 17-38 | Loss | -109 | 18 h 55 m | Show | |
128 Kansas at West Virginia Both teams off a bye heading into this one. Les Miles will miss the game after coming down with Covid. Not sure it matters much as he has done nothing but collect a paycheck since coming to Lawrence. The Jayhawks will be using a backup quarterback here, although the drop off is negligible. West Virginia is looking to bounce back from a rare losing season in 2019. 2013 was the last losing season in Morgantown, and the club won three games more the following season. The Mountaineers have a habit of blowing out lesser teams. Winning by margins of 37, 44, 16, 29, 35, 22, 43, and 36 points the past three seasons when laying double digits. Lay it with the host. PLAY WEST VIRGINIA |
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10-17-20 | Liberty -2.5 v. Syracuse | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 18 h 48 m | Show | |
129 Liberty at Syracuse Revenge game for the Flames who were shutout 24-0 by the Orange in the season opener a year ago. Hugh Freeze has done a wonderful job in Lynchburg in his short stay. Winning eight games a season ago and being one of the big surprises early on in 2020. Last week we backed the Orange and lost and failed to cover, despite a +4 turnover advantage. Syracuse is down to a backup quarterback and have been competitive because of smoke and mirrors. A huge +10 turnover advantage on the season has kept them from being embarrassed. That ends here as we back the clear team on the rise, with the far better coach. PLAY LIBERTY |
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10-11-20 | Vikings +7 v. Seahawks | Top | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 32 h 51 m | Show |
475 Minnesota at Seattle The Vikings defense has been a sieve this year, but the Seahawks have been just as bad. Minnesota ranks 31st in defensive passing yards per play, but they have stopped the run at the tenth best rate in the league. Seattle also excels in stopping the run, but ranks 28th defending the pass. The Seahawks are first in offensive passing yards per play, and 11th in rushing yards per play. Minnesota has been even more balanced offensively at 5th and 3rd respectively. Other than New Orleans the Seahawks suffer the loss of home field advantage more than any other team without all fans. Throw in the fact that Seattle tends to play to the competition, and we find value on the Vikings catching this key number. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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10-10-20 | Charlotte -3 v. North Texas | 49-21 | Win | 100 | 30 h 4 m | Show | |
355 Charlotte at North Texas Two teams that have the ability to put up points, but only one has any semblance of a defense. The Green Wave play as if it’s basketball on grass, scoring at a moments notice. But the defense gives it up just as fast as the offense. Charlotte on the other hand can move the ball at will in this contest, but has a defense that can slow down this fast paced North Texas team. Defense will determine the winner here, and that’s all 49ers. PLAY CHARLOTTE |
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10-10-20 | Alabama v. Ole Miss +24 | 63-48 | Win | 100 | 53 h 13 m | Show | |
328 Alabama at Mississippi Two teams that are loaded offensively and have great coaching. But these defenses have been a disappointment thus far. We would like to play this game over the total, but the hurricane put a stop to that as weather is a concern. That said, we feel the Rebels can stay within this number, despite what went down when both coaches were in Tuscaloosa. With Georgia on deck for the Tide, we can see Saban giving playing time to some bench players in this one. PLAY MISSISSIPPI |
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10-10-20 | Temple -3.5 v. Navy | 29-31 | Loss | -105 | 51 h 28 m | Show | |
347 Temple at Navy First game of the season for the Owls. But they have been practicing for the option during the preseason. With film on the Midshipmen you would have to think Temple has the advantage here. Navy could be the biggest disappointment in college football. This club has played just one good half of football all season. Can’t see that changing much against what we consider to be a pretty solid Temple squad. PLAY TEMPLE |
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10-10-20 | Pittsburgh -6 v. Boston College | 30-31 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 37 m | Show | |
311 Pittsburgh at Boston College Big bounce back game here for the Panthers after blowing a late lead to NC State a week ago. Pitt had four shots at the end zone from the one yard line and failed to score in that contest. Nothing stronger than that to motivate an offense that has been stagnate. BC is having major problems running the football which is a Pitt defensive strength. With a one-dimensional offense, we can count on the Pitt stop unit to have a big day. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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10-10-20 | Duke v. Syracuse +2.5 | 38-24 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 10 m | Show | |
310 Duke at Syracuse Clemson transfer QB Chase Brice has had a real problem with turnovers this year, and this Syracuse stop unit has been very good at forcing turnovers. Tommy DeVito struggled with interceptions in the past, but he has been able to limit those mistakes for the most part this year. Duke ranks last in the conference against the run, and Orange freshman RB Sean Tucker looked good last time out. Wrong team favored here, give us the Orangemen. PLAY SYRACUSE |
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10-04-20 | Jaguars +3 v. Bengals | Top | 25-33 | Loss | -100 | 144 h 49 m | Show |
257 Jacksonville at Cincinnati Money is coming in on the host here so we should be able to get a better number later in the week. Cincinnati has been a team that finds a way to cover as an underdog, with 3-0 or 2-0-1 ATS on the season. But now the Bengals are being installed as a favorite, and we want nothing to do with this club laying points. The public perception is that this club is a hard trying team with a future star at quarterback. And that’s true, but this offensive line is currently terrible. With 32 teams in the league the Bengals rank 31st in rushing yards per play and 31st in passing yards per play. Cincinnati is 29th in sacks per pass attempt. While we love the future of Burrow, he just doesn’t have enough protection to lift up this ailing offense. Nobody expected anything from this Jacksonville team coming into the season. But this is a team that has outgained the opposition each of the last two weeks, and the opening week win over Indianapolis is looking even more impressive now. With extra time to prepare after losing to the Dolphins last Thursday, we will look for a big bounce back from the visitor. The Jags are 7th in rushing yards per play while the Bengals defense ranks 26th in stepping the run. PLAY JACKSONVILLE |
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10-03-20 | Virginia Tech -12 v. Duke | 38-31 | Loss | -105 | 46 h 49 m | Show | |
113 Virginia Tech at Duke The more games the Blue Devils play, the more reasons to bet against them become obvious. This is a turnover machine right now, and the coaching staff doesn’t have a quality backup to bench the starter. Duke doesn’t have anyone to stretch the field, relying on the tight end and running backs. Virginia Tech has a duel threat quarterback, which should really find success against this Duke defense. The Hokies struggled with Covid a couple weeks ago, and many of those players are expected to return for this game. PLAY VIRGINIA TECH |
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10-03-20 | Texas A&M v. Alabama -17.5 | 24-52 | Win | 100 | 45 h 30 m | Show | |
144 Texas A&M at Alabama Kellen Mond played one of his better games last year and the Aggies still lost by 19. The offensive line has experience but didn’t look very good last time out against Vandy, a team on the opposite spectrum from the Tide. Alabama has advantage in the trenches, which means the host can dictate the pace of play. The defense played a mobile quarterback last week, so should have an edge against Mond. There is no love lost between these coaches, and after the Tide allowed a late td a week ago, we feel Saban keeps up the pressure. PLAY ALABAMA |
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10-03-20 | North Carolina -13.5 v. Boston College | 26-22 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 20 m | Show | |
111 North Carolina at Boston College Boston College was very lucky to escape with a victory last week against Texas State. The running game has really struggled, which is very much needed to keep the defense off the field. Against a fast paced Tar Heels team, you need to give your defense a rest. We backed North Carolina in the season opener, and the team has been on the sidelines since. With the additional practice time we are looking for a fired up offense to take advantage of this BC stop unit. When the Eagles fall behind this team doesn’t have the offensive playmakers to forge a comeback. PLAY NORTH CAROLINA |
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10-03-20 | Missouri +13 v. Tennessee | 12-35 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 51 m | Show | |
115 Missouri at Tennessee The Volunteers were highly hyped in the offseason after winning its final six games. The streak continued last week with an unimpressive victory over what could be a bad South Carolina team. This game opened up at 11 and is starting to show 13 in some places. We disagree with the line move, as Missouri looked decently well against powerhouse Alabama last week. The Missouri signal callers were 26 of 39 for 253 yards against one of the best defenses in all of football. Missouri has enough talent to keep this game easily within the current number. PLAY MISSOURI |
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09-27-20 | Packers v. Saints -3 | 37-30 | Loss | -108 | 79 h 41 m | Show | |
488 Green Bay at New Orleans When buying stocks you are told to buy low and sell high. When betting sports you make money by doing the exact same thing. Right now the Packers are 2-0 and have dominated the opposition. The two victories were against Minnesota and Detroit, two teams who also looked bad when not facing the Packers. Just a month ago everyone was looking to fade Green Bay because of all the positives from last season. They were down on the Packers draft. Now after playing two of the most disappointing teams in the early season, this team is taking money against the Saints in New Orleans? We tend to remember what we saw last and the Saints losing at Vegas is certainly in many peoples minds. But did New Orleans really look that bad? They dominated the Raiders in yards per play, but were penalized just about every time this team had a key play. This against a Raiders team known to lead the league in penalties each and every year. Not to start a controversy but the ref calls in that game were extremely strange, as if the league wanted the Raiders to come away with the win. That type of situation isn’t likely to help the Saints foe on Sunday. PLAY NEW ORLEANS |
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09-27-20 | Washington Football Team v. Browns -7 | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 71 h 11 m | Show | |
472 Washington at Cleveland Extra practice time for the Browns who remain at home after outlasting the Bengals on Thursday. The Browns have produced 740 total yards the first two weeks. This offense is loaded and looked unstoppable on Thursday. Washington had just 239 yards in the opener against a banged up Philadelphia defense. The Washington football team did nothing against the Cards in the first half Sunday. We expect this number to rise through the key number of 7, let’s take advantage with this early release. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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09-27-20 | Raiders v. Patriots -5 | 20-36 | Win | 100 | 70 h 6 m | Show | |
462 Las Vegas at New England Now that this line has been bet down it’s time to come in on the favored Pats. Short week for the Raiders off that highly emotional win over the Saints on Monday. A game in which the Raiders received every break possible from the refs. Carr had pointed to that contest as his coming out party and the offense sure looked good. But that defense was not impressive at all, as the Saints clearly did as they wanted from a yards per play aspect. New England has been terrific off a loss, a trademark of this regime. The Pats just played at a very tough venue and took the Seahawks to the wire. As much as we wish our new hometown team success, the Raiders looked better than they really are. Coaching advantage to the Pats, especially on defense. PLAY NEW ENGLAND |
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09-27-20 | Texans +4 v. Steelers | Top | 21-28 | Loss | -103 | 71 h 14 m | Show |
465 Houston at Pittsburgh Texans enter this contest after playing the toughest schedule in the history of the NFL the past two weeks. Kansas City and Baltimore are at least 3 points better than any other team in the league. Despite being outscored 67 to 36 in those contests, there are some positives for Houston. The Texans lost the turnover battles in both games, -3 on the season. That is likely to regress when facing lower rated opposition. When looking at the all important yards per play category, Houston is holding its own. Baltimore beat Houston 6.7 YPP to 5.7 YPP. But the Texans beat the Chiefs 6.7 YPP to 5.6 YPP. Teams that start the season 0-2 lose favor in the minds of the bettors, we take advantage of that here. As opposed to the schedule Houston played, Pittsburgh faced two of the worst teams in the league, the Giants and Broncos. Despite having the better talent the Steelers struggled to put away the opposition, barely beating the Broncos with a back up quarterback last week. With home field advantage being worth less than ever, the Texans are a live dog here. PLAY HOUSTON |
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09-26-20 | UTEP v. UL-Monroe UNDER 50 | 31-6 | Win | 100 | 21 h 36 m | Show | |
448 UTEP at Louisiana Monroe These are the two lowest ranked teams in our power ratings. In the last three seasons the Miners have won two combined games. After surviving two FCS squads to start the year, this is a confident bunch heading into this contest. UTEP only averaged 20 mpg a year ago, and only five starters returned to that side of the ball. Even in victories this season the scoring unit has struggled. The Warhawks are looking for its first victory of the season. That means we expect a very conservative game plan. With teams of this magnitude wins are a rarity, so they don’t want to be criticized by turning the ball over. ULM is breaking in a new QB this season and the offense hasn’t come around as of late. We expect a closely fought game with scoring at a minimum. PLAY UNDER |
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09-26-20 | Army v. Cincinnati UNDER 45 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 21 h 36 m | Show | |
446 Army at Cincinnati The Black Knights averaged 57 running plays a game last year. This team only threw the ball 59 times all season a year ago. Army specializes in long clock absorbing drives which is what you are looking for when playing a game under the total. Cincinnati permitted just 21 points per game in 2019 and bring back nine defensive starters. Luke Fickell is a very conservative coach who looks to win by running the football and playing strong defense. We expect the clock in this contest to fly by, as both teams keep the ball on the ground. PLAY UNDER |
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09-26-20 | Georgia Southern +11.5 v. UL-Lafayette | 18-20 | Win | 100 | 17 h 15 m | Show | |
421 Georgia Southern at Louisiana Lafayette A perfect 2-0 on the season in games involving the Ragin’ Cajuns. Georgia Southern was hit hard by Covid the first game of the season. Now with time the team looks to bring back the majority of players that missed the opener. This is a team that can easily wear down the opposition because of a powerful running attack. Last year the Eagles averaged 51 carries per contest. ULL fought hard last week after falling behind early, grabbing victory from the hands of defeat. That’s a lot of spent energy after knocking off a ranked Big 12 opponent on the road for the first time in school history. Look for the Eagles to dictate the pace and stay well under this number. PLAY GEORGIA SOUTHERN |
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09-20-20 | Rams v. Eagles +1 | 37-19 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 53 m | Show | |
262 Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Less impressed by the Rams victory over the Cowboys than most, if we are to believe the line move in this one. Money has poured in on the visitor, despite the host getting healthier each and every day. The Eagles held the Redskins to 239 yards but 27 points. The Redskins had three drives start in Eagles territory as Philadelphia lost the turnover battle 3 to 0. Our preseason numbers like the Eagles much more than the Rams. Teams starting the season 0-1 have been golden when playing a 1-0 squad. The threat of an 0-2 start brings out the best of the winless team. Considering the Eagles are at home and have more talent puts us squarely on the host. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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09-20-20 | Vikings v. Colts -3 | Top | 11-28 | Win | 100 | 144 h 47 m | Show |
274 Minnesota at Indianapolis Heading into the opening week this is one game we had circled and we bet the lookahead line. Despite the Colts losing to the lowly Jags we like this game even better now. We graded the Colts five points higher than the Vikings comming into the season, and that may be a bit conservative. The Colts simply dominated Jacksonville Sunday in just about every category you look at, except turnovers. Indy was -2 in the turnover department despite winning yardage by 204. Keep in mind the Colts never punted in the entire game. Minnesota lost by nine points at home to a team expected to regress badly this year. The Vikings lost the yardage battle by 140. We know this line is going to rise and getting it on the right side of three is a bonus. Wouldn't surprise if we saw the same type of line movement which led to our early release last week. PLAY INDIANAPOLIS |
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09-19-20 | Wake Forest +1 v. NC State | Top | 42-45 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 47 m | Show |
07 Wake Forest at North Carolina State Wake fared about as well as expected by facing Clemson out of the gate. This is a team really dropping down in opposition, with a game already under its belt. The Demon Deacons are running one of the fastest offenses in college football. We expect this team to have a great deal of success against a team not used to that type of pace. NC State has been dealing with Covid 19, so its been tough getting players on the field together. In what we expect to be a high scoring game we will back the visitor. PLAY WAKE FOREST |
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09-19-20 | UL-Lafayette v. Georgia State +15.5 | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 54 m | Show | |
104 Louisiana Lafayette at Georgia State We backed the Ragin’ Cajuns last week with success, but we are looking to fade them on Saturday. ULL is off its first ever Top 25 road win in the programs history. Now 1-26 away vs elite opponents. Not only is Lafayette off a road first, but the team itself is now being ranked. Despite putting up 35 points last week the offense only gained 272 yards. Early in the season it’s tough to get a grasp on teams because of small sample sizes. ULL is a good team but this line is inflated because of one game. Give us the home dog here to keep this much closer than anticipated. PLAY GEORGIA STATE |
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09-17-20 | Bengals v. Browns -6 | Top | 30-35 | Loss | -104 | 54 h 28 m | Show |
102 Cincinnati at Cleveland Mixed thoughts surrounding the debut of Joe Burrow. He only had a passer rating of 54 and the offensive line continued to have problems. He didn’t have a single August practice that had his full slate of receivers healthy. Those timing issues are especially needed when traveling on a short week where there is no time to work out the problems. The Browns played the Ravens much closer than the final score, but mistakes plagued the team all afternoon. Cleveland lost the yardage battle 377-306, but really struggled in key downs going 3 of 15 on third and fourth, while the Ravens went 6 of 11. The Browns also lost the turnover battle 3 to 1. So while the Bengals looked competitive in the opener, the Browns were much better than the final score. This Cleveland team is loaded, and with a chip on its shoulder we expect the best of the Browns here. Year after year the home team in these Thursday games have dominated. With what happed last week we really like Cleveland here. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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09-13-20 | Cowboys v. Rams OVER 51 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -105 | 46 h 41 m | Show |
477 Dallas at Los Angeles Rams Last year these two clubs finished in the top three in pace of play. Word out of LA is that this is also a very fast field, great for breakaway speed. These offenses are very talented and we have questions about both defenses, which are banged up at key positions. With the game on the key number of 51 and this being a nationally televised night game. This total has nowhere to go but up. PLAY OVER |
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09-13-20 | Eagles v. Washington Football Team +6.5 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 143 h 45 m | Show |
464 Philadelphia at Washington Can’t trust the Eagles in the road favorite role. Week one divisional dogs are on a 21-5-1 run, and teams not making the playoffs the previous season have been golden when up against a playoff participant. Washington has quality players, it’s been the organization that has been the drawback. With the promise to change the name we feel the management is now starting to join the 21st century. The Eagles have major injuries coming into this game with Jeffrey, Wentz, Reagor and Sanders being banged up. The defense has many question marks as well with Avery, Maddox, Effs, Hargrave and Barnett not being 100%. Touch to lay this type of number on the road to a team very familiar. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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09-13-20 | Colts -8 v. Jaguars | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -105 | 38 h 27 m | Show |
467 Indianapolis at Jacksonville This Colts team is simply loaded. It’s likely the best offensive line in the NFL. Rivers has never had protection like he will have this season. This is going to be an explosive offense and the defense is likely top ten as well. Jacksonville is the worst team in the league, and has already made moves to get its franchise quarterback of the future. The Jags normally have very little home advantage, so that likely won’t change much if not at all this season. Getting this one out now as we expect this line to rise. PLAY INDIANAPOLIS |
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09-12-20 | Coastal Carolina +7 v. Kansas | 38-23 | Win | 100 | 81 h 48 m | Show | |
403 Coastal Carolina at Kansas The visitor should be well prepared in this contest as they have had 15 more spring practices than the Jayhawks. They also return more starters than the host. The coaching staff returns in full along with its starting quarterback. Kansas has a new OC and must replace its quarterback. Simply can’t trust this terrible football program to lay points to a team it lost to just last season. PLAY COASTAL CAROLINA |
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09-12-20 | UL-Lafayette +11.5 v. Iowa State | 31-14 | Win | 100 | 22 h 20 m | Show | |
415 Louisiana Lafayette at Iowa State When a Sun Belt team plays a Big 5 program and the money has come in on the underdog you need to give it some respect. And for good reason as Lafayette had an 11 win season a year ago and is projected to be even better this year. Senior returning quarterback with a 26-4 TD to INT ratio has us interested. We also have a head coach in Billy Napier who was a hot commodity in the offseason and decided to stay put in search for the Sun Belt Championship. Iowa State is a good football program but we much prefer them as an underdog than laying double digits. This is a team under Matt Campbell that prefers to be very conservative and slow the pace down. Under Campbell this team is 6-9 ATS as a home favorite, 17-8 ATS as an underdog. PLAY LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE |
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09-12-20 | Syracuse v. North Carolina -22.5 | Top | 6-31 | Win | 100 | 71 h 36 m | Show |
396 Syracuse at North Carolina Don’t think much of this Syracuse team who has won five or less games 5 of the last 6 years. After a breakout 2018 in which the Orangemen won ten games, the team dropped to a 5-7 record last year. The players sat out practices because of the COVID, and really look like a team just going through the motions right now. This was an experienced team a year ago, no so in 2020. They hired a new defensive coordinator who is installing a 3-3-5 defense. Tough to make those type of changes and have to face an NFL caliber quarterback right out of the gate. North Carolina is a team on the rise under second year coach Mack Brown. I had originally hated the signing as I felt the game had passed him by. I’m big enough to admit my mistakes, and that was a big one. As the Tar Heels went from winning two games in 2018 to seven last year. QB Sam Howell was dominant last year and really put his name out there for those looking from the next level. North Carolina finished the year scoring 41 and 56 points, we expect a huge offensive season from this team. PLAY NORTH CAROLINA |
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01-04-20 | Bills v. Texans -2.5 | 19-22 | Win | 100 | 99 h 45 m | Show | |
142 Buffalo at Houston Buffalo played one of the easiest pass defense schedules in the country, and now take on what could be an explosive Texans pass offense. As of now Will Fuller on offense and JJ Watt defensively have not been cleared to play. But both players are expected to suit up this weekend. Looking at the Texans stats when those two players are on the field as opposed to off this season has been huge. To get Houston at home at less than a field goal, and with those two playing is one hell of a bargain. When they are announced in this line will rise to at least 3, with probably added juice. Word is both will be on the field, so we will grab this number now in anticipation of this number rising. PLAY HOUSTON |
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12-31-19 | Texas v. Utah -7 | 38-10 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
262 Texas at Utah We have made steady money all season long betting against these Longhorns. This was the most overrated team in the country heading into the season. On the other hand Utah was a team we focused on backing before the season even started. Now we get the best matchup we could ask for in the bowl season. Texas has played the tougher schedule at #4 as opposed to #49. But that’s the only advantage for the Longhorns. When looking at yards per play differentials on the season Texas is 0.0. Allowing the exact same amount as they produce. That’s 75th in the country. Utah on the other hand is plus 2.5, which equates to #6 in the country. Coming into the season who do you think would be happy to play in this bowl? Obviously not the Longhorns who had higher aspirations. Sure Utah had the chance to play in the final four if it beat Oregon, but coming into the season this bowl would have been a nice reward for the Utes. Throw in the fact that the Utah head coach is terrific in bowl games and we find ourselves once again fading this Texas team. PLAY UTAH |
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12-29-19 | Steelers v. Ravens +2 | Top | 10-28 | Win | 100 | 75 h 48 m | Show |
118 Pittsburgh at Baltimore If these two teams were both playing its starters we would have made the Ravens likely a nine point favorite. But yet because of the must win factor the Steelers are a two point favorite. That’s a conservative 11 point swing because the Ravens are resting some starters. That’s a huge overreaction. Pittsburgh is playing with a third string quarterback that has really struggled as of late. Baltimore on the other hand has a backup veteran behind center, in an offense that should let him play to his best abilities. This is a heated rivalry and you know the Ravens players would love to knock the Steelers out of an playoff possibilities. It’s also a huge coaching mismatch in favor of the home underdog. PLAY BALTIMORE |
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12-29-19 | Browns v. Bengals +3 | 23-33 | Win | 100 | 71 h 29 m | Show | |
104 Cleveland at Cincinnati These two teams met just three weeks ago and the Browns came away with a 27-19 home victory. But giving that game a closer look we see that the Bengals had 118 more yards, and fared better in the running game. Looking at game scores Cincinnati posted an 83.8 while Cleveland had a 75.5. The Browns are a dysfunctional squad that entered the season with great expectations. Now they are just playing out the string. Cincinnati on the other hand showed its heart by forcing the Dolphins to overtime last week in a huge comeback. Now that the worst record is clinched, we can see this team coming out this week fired up to end the season on a positive. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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12-27-19 | USC +2.5 v. Iowa | 24-49 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 9 m | Show | |
233 USC & Iowa in San Diego The Trojans head back to the bowls after missing out last year. USC had gone bowling six straight years prior to that 5-7 season. USC played the tougher schedule 19th to 37th. USC produced a higher yards per play 0.9 to 0.8. The location also favors the Trojans. From a recruiting standpoint Southern Cal is one of the top programs in the nation, while Iowa recruits like a middle of the pack Big 10 program. Kedon Slovis has a 28 to 9 TD to INT ratio and a passer rating of 167.6 on the season. Nate Stanley has a 14 to 7 TD to INT ratio with a passer rating of 129.4. The Trojans have a receiving corp that is heads and shoulders better than anything the Hawkeyes have seen this season. Wrong team favored. PLAY USC |
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12-26-19 | Pittsburgh -10.5 v. Eastern Michigan | 34-30 | Loss | -107 | 415 h 9 m | Show | |
225 Pittsburgh & Eastern Michigan in Detroit Quick Lane Bowl Pitt is going bowling for the 11th time in the last 12 years. After losing the last two games of the season to Virginia Tech and Boston College, we expect the Panthers to be motivated here. Pitt is terrific against the run allowing just 2.9 yards per carry on the season. That will severely limit this Eastern Michigan offense by making them one dimensional. Eastern Michigan has gone to two bowl games in the last 20 years. Losing to Georgia Southern and Old Dominion in the past three seasons. Those games were played at destination areas where the players could enjoy the weather and the sites. This game is being played in their home state, not much of a reward for the players. The MAC was by far the worst conference in head to head matchups against non-conference foes this season. And the MAC has long been a money burner in bowl season. We expect the much better team to take this game seriously and pound the inferior foe. PLAY PITTSBURGH |