*3 Star NBA ATS Play of Day* The Oklahoma City Thunder have had four days in between games. They were blasted by Golden State in the second half of Thursday night's game after being tied at halftime. Oklahoma City had plenty of time to think about that one, and I think they are in a good spot here.

They were blown out last game, and there is a 58% ATS covering system on good teams (55% wins or more) that are blown out and then play their next game on the road. It becomes 60% when you factor in that the opposition has covered their last game. In this case, Utah has won six straight games straight up, and they are due for some regression.

Utah blew out OKC earlier this year thanks to 13/23 shooting from 3 point land. Rodney Hood was their leading scorer in that game and he is injured now. 

Oklahoma City is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss by double digits. Utah is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 following a straight up win.

Take Oklahoma City. 

*3 Star Play Under* Historically, Sunday is by far and away the best day to play unders in the NBA. That is especially the case when they are afternoon or earlier than usual games for the teams. In the past ten years alone, if you played every single under in the NBA on Sunday that starts at 6 pm eastern or earlier, you would have cashed 54.8% of the time. That's a pretty decent edge, and when you combine it with other factors, I like this under.

Phoenix was playing at the fastest pace in the NBA for a while, but they have drastically changed the way they play of late. The Suns rank 27th in the league (4th slowest) in the NBA in tempo in their last ten games. Some high shooting numbers have allowed 5 of the 10 to go over, but I see this as giving us extra value on the under.

A total set this high is hard to attain when one team is slowing the game down.

Take the under.  

*3 Star Play Under* Historically, Sunday is by far and away the best day to play unders in the NBA. That is especially the case when they are afternoon or earlier than usual games for the teams. In the past ten years alone, if you played every single under in the NBA on Sunday that starts at 6 pm eastern or earlier, you would have cashed 54.8% of the time. 

The under is 7-0 in Dallas' last 7 Sunday games. The under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between the Lakers and the Mavericks. 

The Lakers have been a great over team at home, but they are even on the road in over/unders. Dallas is playing at the slowest tempo of any team in the NBA in the past ten games. The Mavericks are also last in the NBA in trips to the free throw line. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Early Bird Special* The Golden State Warriors are coming off their big revenge win over the Houston Rockets on Friday night. Golden State has been extremely motivated for multiple games this week. This is a spot where they might be less motivated to kill the Magic.

Instead of taking Orlando though, I'm taking the under. Golden State's defense has been much better of late. Golden State now leads the NBA in defensive efficiency. Yes, the Warriors can pile up the points, but they can play defense as well. 

Orlando is middle of the pack in defensive efficiency, and they are subpar in offensive efficiency. 

Sunday is by far and away the best day to play unders in the NBA. That is especially the case when they are afternoon or earlier than usual games for the teams. In the past ten years alone, if you played every single under in the NBA on Sunday that starts at 6 pm eastern or earlier, you would have cashed 54.8% of the time. That's a pretty decent edge, and when you combine it with other factors, I like this under.

The under is a perfect 4-0 in Golden State's 4 road games on Sunday this year. The under is 3-0 in their 3 games as a double digit road favorite on Sunday. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 games following an ATS win. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. A 19-0 angle. 

Take the under.

*3 Star NBA on ESPN CASH* The Los Angeles Lakers lost 115-108 in Indiana earlier this year. I think we see another very high scoring game (probably even higher than the first meeting) on Friday night in Los Angeles.

Indiana's home road splits are really interesting. The over is 11-10 in their home games this year. The over is 13-7 in their 20 road games this year. Why is that? Well, Indiana is 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency when playing at home this year. On the road, Indiana ranks 27th in defensive efficiency. They are allowing 1.004 points per possession at home. They are giving up 1.111 points per possession on the road. That's a massive difference. 

In the last ten games, both the Pacers and the Lakers rank in the bottom ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency. In that same period, both of these teams rank in the top 14 in offensive efficiency. 

The over is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings between these two. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA Warriors/Rockets ATS CASH* The Golden State Warriors are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They exacted revenge on the Cleveland Cavs in a big way earlier this week. They were in a sandwich spot against Oklahoma City and still dominated the Thunder in the second half of that game. Now, they go take on a Houston team that beat them at Oracle Arena in overtime earlier this year.

Houston has only lost 4 games at home this year, but the Rockets have beaten up on quite a few bad teams at home. They have lost both games at home against the Spurs. They lost by 5 last week to Memphis. They were blown out at home by Toronto earlier this year.

Golden State's problem this year has been with covering huge spreads, not with taking care of business against good teams. The Warriors beat Toronto on the road by 6. They beat Boston by 16 on the road. They beat the Clippers by 17 on the road. 

Teams playing with revenge fare much better ATS on the road, which might surprise you. About 55% of the time a team in the past 10 years an NBA team playing with revenge covers on the road. At home, the rate is almost exactly 50%. The Warriors make a statement here.

Take Golden State. 

*3 Star NBA Thunder/Warriors ATS CASH* The Oklahoma City Thunder are getting a few too many points here. Golden State is coming off their beatdown of Cleveland. That was clearly a game the team put a massive effort in for, and Golden State plays at Houston in their next game. Houston also beat Golden State earlier this year.

Oklahoma City was crushed earlier this year by Golden State, and I think we'll see a much better effort from them tonight. 

The betting data here tells me a lot. Golden State is getting 73% of the bets tonight, but 53% of the money is on the Thunder. There is clearly a public/sharp split in this one, and I'll grab the points and side with the sharp players taking Oklahoma City.

Take the Thunder. 

*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The San Antonio Spurs are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Phoenix Suns. San Antonio has historically been a great under bet in this situation. 

The Spurs have an elite defense, and when they are motivated, that defense looks even better. San Antonio ranks third in the NBA in defensive efficiency on the year. 

It may surprise you to hear that Minnesota ranks 8th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last 10 games. The Timberwolves are starting to buy into what Tom Thibodeau is selling them on that end of the floor.

Minnesota has slowed down their pace of play drastically as well. The Wolves are 28th in the NBA in pace in the last 10 games. The Spurs are 26th. 

We have a total of 202.5 with two defenses playing great and with two teams who consistently slow the pace down.

I think the Spurs hold the Timberwolves to a low number here. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Indiana Pacers are playing in their first game back from playing in London on January 12. That is a brutal trip for a team that is accustomed to playing a lot of games either at home or at least in the Eastern time zone in the United States. The body clock gets thrown off in a big way with that kind of trip. This is the perfect spot for them to be flat.

New Orleans has the number one ranked defense in terms of defensive efficiency in the past 8 games. They are only allowing 0.982 points per possession. The Pacers defense ranks 24th during that same time. The Pelicans are better than their record, and I think this is a good chance to back them.

There's also a strong system here of small underdogs going against the public have cashed at a better than 60% clip in the past 10 years.

Take New Orleans. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington Wizards host the Portland Blazers in an early tip game for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Washington and Portland both started the year by playing terribly on the defensive end. Things have looked better from them both defensively of late.

Washington is 8th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the past nine games. Portland is 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the NBA in the past 9 games. That's important because Washington is 18th and Portland is 27th on the season. Both teams have been putting more effort in on the defensive end.

These teams are a little above average offensively, but not elite. They both play just a tick faster than the average team in the NBA. 

A total of 220 is usually saved for games between teams that run like crazy and play almost no defense. I don't think that is the case here.

MLK Day early games have been solid under trends during the past ten years. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Knicks and Atlanta Hawks meet early on Monday. These two teams have met twice this year and neither game has gotten even close to this posted total. The two games have been 198 and 200 (in overtime). 

This is an early start on MLK Day, which helps the under in my opinion. This is something that has shown to be true through the years. 

Atlanta ranks first in the NBA in defensive efficiency over the last eight games. The Knicks are in the middle of the pack. Both teams are middle of the pack or lower in offensive efficiency. Neither team is pushing the pace all that much.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Sunday Night SMASHER* The Oklahoma City Thunder are in a great spot here. Oklahoma City fits a 60.1% system where a road team that just lost is once again a road favorite. It is 249-165 ATS in the past 12 years. 

Oklahoma City has the more talented team, and I think they'll be very hungry in this one. Oklahoma City is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss, so they have fit into this type of system really well in the past.

Sacramento has been an up and down team all year. I don't think they can be trusted. Oklahoma City isn't a great team, but I feel like we can expect them to give a lot of effort on a nightly basis.

Oklahoma City is also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against a team with a losing record.

Take Oklahoma City to bounce back here. 

*3 Star NBA on ESPN MONEY* The Utah Jazz play at the slowest pace in the NBA. Utah also ranks first in the NBA in defensive efficiency. That can lead to some really low scores from their opponent. 

Utah hosts Detroit here, and you have to think Detroit is likely out of gas. They are on a long West Coast swing. They were blown away late last night at Golden State. Earlier this week they won in overtime in a draining game at Portland. This is the type of game where Detroit might shut it down early.

How about a really strong NBA system for this one as well? The under is hitting a whopping 60% of the time when we have a home favorite of double digits that has won only 2 of their last 4 games? 

The system sits at 286-189 (60.2%) to the under. 

I think Utah wins and Detroit puts up a low enough point total for us to cash the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star NBA Underdog Special* The Orlando Magic are 7.5 point underdogs here because Portland just blew out Cleveland on national television. This line has been adjusted upward too much. 

Portland still had a very weird travel schedule of late, and even two days later that could hurt them a bit. The Blazers were only favored by 2 at home against the Kings, by 6.5 at home against the Lakers, by 3.5 at home against the Pistons, and now the line has been inflated to -7.5 against Orlando.

The Magic have covered 11 of 20 on the road this year. Orlando should be at full strength tonight with Ibaka expected back. 

Portland is only 7-19 ATS in their last 26 following a straight up win.

Take Orlando. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Houston Rockets and Memphis Grizzlies met a few weeks ago and the posted total was 205.5. Memphis has been playing some higher scoring games of late, so the total did need adjusted upward some. Still, a move to 217 is just too big. 

Memphis still is one of the 4 slowest paced teams in the NBA. They also rank 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Houston is unquestionably very good on offense, but this line has been inflated too much.

The referees are great for the under in this one. Eric Dalen has been the best under referee in the NBA in the past five years. The under is 55.03% in all his games. James Williams is the second best under guy (54.47%) and both of them are doing this game.

Look for fewer foul calls and I'll take the under in this game.