Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-16-15 | Heat v. Nets UNDER 191 | 104-98 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Miami Heat have been a great under team so far this year. Miami has slowed their pace down to where they are 26th out of 30 teams in the league as far as pace. Miami ranks second in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Heat also have two key offensive contributors questionable tonight. Dwyane Wade and Tyler Johnson are both questionable here. Brooklyn has slowed down their tempo of late, and that makes sense because Brook Lopez is the strength of their team and they need to get it inside to him. Brooklyn has played better defense on their home floor. Brooklyn's offense ranks as the second least efficient offense in the league (only the 76ers are worse). The under is 8-0 in the Heat's 8 road games so far this year. The under is 5-0 in Miami's last 5 vs. a team with a win percentage of 40% or lower. The under is 6-0 in Brooklyn's last 6 vs. a team with a losing road record. A 19-0 angle. Take the under. |
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12-11-15 | Hornets v. Grizzlies UNDER 193 | 123-99 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA TGIF CASH* The Memphis Grizzlies experimented a bit early in the year with playing faster, but it didn't work out well. Their tempo has slowed down in recent weeks. I expect them to end the season as one of the slowest paced teams in the league. Charlotte ranks 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Hornets have been much improved on the defensive end this year. Al Jefferson and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist are out for this game, and those are two of their best offensive weapons. Two of the three referees in this game (Curtis Blair and Courtney Kirkland) have a strong under record in the past few years, which is a nice bonus for this play. The under is 35-16-1 in Memphis' last 52 home games. The under is 5-0 in the Hornets last 5 playing on one day of rest. Take the under. |
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12-07-15 | Spurs v. 76ers UNDER 188.5 | 119-68 | Win | 100 | 5 h 45 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Antonio Spurs defense is first in the NBA by a wide margin when it comes to defensive efficiency. The Spurs are winning with defense this year. Philadelphia ranks last in the NBA in offensive efficiency. Can Philadelphia get to 80 points here? I'm not sure if they can. San Antonio isn't likely to be anxious to run the score up a bunch here as they are on a road trip and play a good Toronto team on Wednesday. Philadelphia's Isaiah Canaan and Jahlil Okafor are both questionable for this game, and those are two of their best offensive players. Canaan has a sprained ankle and if he plays he'll be less than 100 percent. The under is 7-0 in the Spurs last 7 Monday games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following an ATS loss. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a win percentage of 40% or less. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. A 22-0 angle. Take the under. |
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12-02-15 | Nuggets v. Bulls UNDER 197.5 | 90-99 | Win | 100 | 4 h 53 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Chicago Bulls offense ranks 27th out of 30 teams in the NBA in offensive efficiency. The Bulls haven't played as fast this year as many people expected them to under Hoiberg. Chicago is also the #5 ranked team in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Bulls are still very committed on the defensive end. Denver ranks 26th in the NBA in offensive efficiency. The Nuggets offense has been particularly bad in the past couple weeks. The three referees here are very helpful to the under. All three of them have a history of cashing unders more than overs. There is sharp money on this under, and I believe there are plenty of reasons for that. The under is 4-0 in the Nuggets last 4. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following an ATS loss. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 75 points or less last game. The under 6-0 in the Bulls last 6 vs. the Western Conference. The under is 5-0-1 in the Bulls last 6 following a win. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following an ATS win. A 32-0 angle. Take the under. |
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11-30-15 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 194.5 | Top | 105-95 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 56 m | Show |
*5 Star NBA TOP Play of the MONTH* The Boston Celtics are without Marcus Smart right now. That's a key injury for them. Their offense has been less efficient without him in the lineup. The Celtics played on Sunday and could only score 91 points against Orlando. They'll face an even better defense on Monday in Miami. Miami ranks third in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Heat are giving up only 91.7 points per game. Miami is first in the NBA in field goal percentage defense at 40.3%. Boston ranks fifth in the NBA in defensive efficiency as well. On offense, the Heat rank 14th in the league in offensive efficiency and Boston ranks 19th. Clearly, the two defenses have the advantage here. Here is a really interesting statistic. The Boston Celtics are playing at 104.7 possessions per game at home this year (fastest in the NBA). They are playing at 99.1 possesions per game on the road this year (this ranks in the bottom ten in terms of tempo). Miami loves to slow the game down and they should be able to do that in this one. With both a slower tempo and two good defenses, this is a relatively high number. The under is 8-0 in the Heat's last 8 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 Monday games. The under is 4-0 in Miami's last 4 vs. the NBA Atlantic. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 games following a win by 10 points or more. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A 26-0 angle. Take the under big! *Note- This number has moved down some since I played this one last night, but I still like this as a 5 star rated play down to 190. Thank you* |
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11-23-15 | Knicks v. Heat UNDER 192 | 78-95 | Win | 100 | 18 h 53 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* I successfully played the 'over' with the Knicks in their first two games of the season. Derek Fisher talked a lot in the offseason about the Knicks picking up the pace this year. They did just that in the first week of the season. Gradually though, as the season has gone on the Knicks have slowed their tempo back down. New York was at nearly a 100 possessions per game tempo in the first week. In their past 3 games, they are at a tempo of less than 95 possessions per game. That's a very big difference. Miami is ranked second in the NBA in defensive efficiency and they play at the fourth slowest pace in the league. Look for a slow tempo and a game that stays low scoring. The under is 5-0 in Miami's last 5 vs. the Eastern Conference. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning record. The under is 10-1 in their last 11 games overall. A 20-1 angle. Take the under. |
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11-21-15 | 76ers v. Heat UNDER 193 | 91-96 | Win | 100 | 16 h 24 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The 76ers are dead last in the NBA in offensive efficiency, and it isn't even close! Philadelphia is shooting 30% form three and 41.7% overall from the floor. Miami ranks second in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Heat have the ability to hold Philadelphia to a very low number here. Miami is also playing at a slow tempo and Philadelphia is pushing the pace less this year than they have in the past. The under is 9-1 in the Heat's last 10. The under is 4-0 in their last vs. the Eastern Conference. The under is 4-0 in their last vs. a team with a win percentage below 40%. A 17-1 angle. Take the under. |
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11-15-15 | Pistons v. Lakers UNDER 200 | 85-97 | Win | 100 | 19 h 35 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Los Angeles Lakers were playing exceptionally fast on offense earlier this year, and lately they have slowed things down. Los Angles has played 5 straight games that have finished under the total. The Lakers offense is very disjointed right now. They don't have much ball movement at all, and they become easy to defend for long stretches. Detroit's defense is so much better than it has been in the past. Drummond has been terrific for them and he does two things to help the under here- 1) he is a shot blocking force in the paint 2) he slows down the tempo of the game. Detroit now ranks tied for 10th in the league in defense. Both of these teams rank in the bottom third of the league in offensive efficiency as well. This number is a few points too high. The under is 5-0 in the Lakers last 5 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the Eastern Conference. The under is 3-0 in their 3 home games this year. The under is 2-0 in the Pistons only two games as a favorite this year. The under is 2-0 in the last 2 meetings between these teams. A 20-0 angle. Take the under. |
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11-11-15 | Spurs v. Blazers UNDER 204.5 | 113-101 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Spurs/Blazers ESPN CASH* The San Antonio Spurs offense hasn't been as efficient so far this year as we are accustomed to them being. It makes sense really, since they have a completely different look with Aldridge in the lineup. The Spurs have been excellent on defense though. They are behind only Golden State in defensive efficiency so far this year. Portland relies way too much on Damian Lillard for my liking. Lillard is definitely a very good player, but the Spurs defense should do well against him. Portland hasn't played against many good defenses this year, so I think their offensive number are skewed a bit right now. Both of these teams are playing at a pace slower than the NBA average, so a line set this high doesn't make much sense, especially when you have an elite defense like the Spurs involved. The public is hitting the over hard here, so I'll gladly take the under at this elevated price. One more note- James Williams is one of the referees here, and he is one of the best under refs in the NBA. The under is hitting at a better than 60% clip in his last 150 games as a ref. Take the under. |
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11-10-15 | Lakers v. Heat UNDER 200.5 | 88-101 | Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Miami Heat have been slowing the tempo down in a big way this year. Miami ranks second to last in the NBA in terms of pace (only Utah is slower). The Heat also rank fourth in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Miami is very likely to control this game against the Lakers. Miami ranks 10th in the NBA in offensive efficiency and the Lakers rank 18th. I expect Miami to grab a lead and let their defense win them this game. Two of the three referees in this game are solid under guys, which is certainly helpful. Miami hasn't had a game this year finish with a final score higher than 198. Two of the Lakers last four games have finished at 196 or lower. The under is 6-0 in the Heat's last 6 games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 on a day of rest. The under is 5-0 in Miami's last 5 vs. the Western Conference. The under is 2-0 in the Lakers last 2 games. The under is 2-0 in the last 2 meetings between these teams. A 20-0 angle. Take the under. |
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11-03-15 | Pacers v. Pistons UNDER 202 | 94-82 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Detroit Pistons are a much improved team this year. They are working much harder on the defensive end, and they have improved team chemistry. Detroit is playing at the fourth slowest tempo of any team in the NBA. The Indiana Pacers have the third worst offensive efficiency of any team in the NBA. A total set this high doesn't make sense in this contest. The referees in this game are neutral as far as over/unders. I thought this line should be at 197, so I see plenty of value here. Look for Detroit to control the tempo and win with a strong defensive effort. Take the under here. |
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10-29-15 | Hawks v. Knicks OVER 197 | Top | 112-101 | Win | 100 | 19 h 33 m | Show |
*5 Star NBA TOP Play of Week* I took the over in the New York Knicks season opener and that won comfortably. I'm backing the over again in this one. New York showed they were a different team in the preseason, and they confirmed that yet again in their win over Milwaukee. New York is running a much faster paced offense. The Knicks brought in guys who fit a faster paced offense very well. Guys like Jerian Grant and Derrick Williams made big impacts in game one, and they should again here. Importantly though, Atlanta has always been a team that likes to run when they can. The Hawks aren't going to slow this game down. Atlanta lost their season opener and they'll be ready to go here. Atlanta had one of the top five offenses in terms of efficiency last year. While New York's offense is much better this year, I still expect the Knicks to be one of the worst defenses in the NBA. Atlanta should be able to put up a big number here. Interestingly, even when the Knicks were stalling and playing a totally halfcourt game last year, two of their three meetings with Atlanta went over the total. The oddsmakers haven't adjusted to the Knicks new style of play yet. This number is too low. Take the over big! *Note- This line has moved up slightly- I would take over for a 5 star play up to 200. Thank you* |
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10-28-15 | Knicks v. Bucks OVER 192 | 122-97 | Win | 100 | 18 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The New York Knicks are going to play a different style of basketball this year. Derek Fisher has been using the offseason to implement a new faster pace of play with this team. New York has the new guard to start the fastbreak with. Jerian Grant will be a great fit in this offense with them pushing the tempo. New York will still run the triangle offense when they can't score in transition, but last year this Knicks team was the single slowest paced in the NBA for much of the year. In the preseason, they ranked 14th in the league in points and were clearly changing things up. Milwaukee ranked just a little faster than average in terms of pace last year. Greg Monroe is the new big signing for the Bucks. Monroe is a defensive downgrade for the team and a major offensive upgrade. The Knicks don't have anyone who can guard him consistently here. Last year, the Knicks were playing an extremely slow tempo and 3 of the 4 meetings between these teams were lined higher than this. I think we are catching value on the over as the oddsmakers underestimate the differences in these teams. Take the over. |
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06-04-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 203 | 100-108 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 39 m | Show | |
*3 Star Game One 100% Angle CASH* The Golden State Warriors are very well known for their great offense, but this team ranked first in the NBA in defensive efficiency during the regular season. Golden State should have a good game plan to make life difficult for LeBron James. The long layoff likely favors the under with both teams being a little out of sort in this position normally. Cleveland's defense has been great in the postseason, and that's why they are here. The Cavs have played at the slowest tempo of any team in the postseason this year. Golden State isn't running nearly as much as they did in the regular season. Plenty of reasons to expect a lower scoring game than this posted line would suggest. The under is 4-0 in the Cavs last 4 road games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs a team with a winning record. The under is 7-0-1 in the Warriors last 8 home games. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 when playing on 3 or more days of rest. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points in the previous game. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the NBA Central. A 34-0 angle. Take the under. |
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05-15-15 | Golden State Warriors v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 194 | 108-95 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 43 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* In closeout situations, the pace of the game slows down even more and the defenses usually step things up. Golden State is well-known for their tremendous offense, but their defense ranked first in the NBA in defensive efficiency during the regular season. Memphis has a great defense as well, and Tony Allen should be back for this game. Allen is one of the best defenders in the NBA. Memphis knows how to slow the game down, and they are even better at that on their home court. The under is an amazing 24-2 in Memphis' last 26 home games overall. Look for a close game where both defenses rise to the occasion. This number is a few points too high. The under is 5-0 in the Warriors last 5 on one day of rest. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 games. The under is 8-0 in their last 8 following a win by 10 points or more. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 conference semifinals games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a win. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. The under is 6-0 in the Grizzlies last 6 conference semifinals games. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 following a loss by 10 points or more. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these teams overall. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two in Memphis. A 62-0 angle. Take the under. |
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05-10-15 | Houston Rockets v. Los Angeles Clippers OVER 217 | 95-128 | Win | 100 | 19 h 18 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Los Angeles Clippers offense is shredding up this Houston defense. Because of the speed of the game, Houston is going to get plenty of points as well. Dwight Howard is putting together some big numbers in the paint in the playoffs this year. James Harden should be ready to go here, and Chris Paul is healthier than he was last game. No one is going to want to slow down the tempo, unless it is to foul on purpose, which obviously gives us more possessions and more scoring chances. All three games in this series so far have gone over this total. While this total is certainly high, I think this game goes above 220. The over is 5-0 in the Rockets last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the NBA Pacific Division. The over is 4-0 in the Clippers last 4 on one day of rest. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 following a win. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with winning road record. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 following an ATS win. A 28-0 angle. Take the over. |
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05-01-15 | Atlanta Hawks v. Brooklyn Nets UNDER 200.5 | 111-87 | Win | 100 | 18 h 49 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Brooklyn Nets head home trying to stave off elimination here. Brooklyn has shown to be a worthy opponent in this series, and the Nets like to slow the game down. They have gotten the tempo to their liking in this series. It has been right around 95 possessions per game, which is one of the slower paced series' thus far. The shooting numbers have been very high the last two games. I think it's unlikely these two teams can keep up that kind of shooting in this one. In closeout situations we typically see a slower tempo and better defense. No one wants to go home. In this case, we get a total that has bumped up by a couple points because of the last two games. That gives us extra value. Take the under. |
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04-24-15 | Los Angeles Clippers v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 204 | 73-100 | Win | 100 | 19 h 52 m | Show | |
*4 Star Clippers/Spurs Totals CASH* The San Antonio Spurs got an amazing effort from Tim Duncan last game. Duncan carried the team to victory. The first game in this series stayed under the total and last game would have as well if it weren't for overtime. The Spurs are slowing the tempo down in this series. In the playoffs, the defensive intensity turns up a lot, and we've definitely seen that in this series. I like to watch what the line movement does compared to public betting numbers. In those one, it tells an interesting story. The public loves the over here, but the number has moved down. There is some very sharp money betting the under. I agree with that, and I think this one stays below 200. Take the under. |
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04-08-15 | Boston Celtics v. Detroit Pistons UNDER 201 | 113-103 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 52 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Detroit Pistons are technically still in the playoff race in the East, but they have to win this game. Boston is currently in the playoffs, but they aren't comfortably in by any means. This is a game that means something to both teams, which should cause both defenses to work hard. Detroit is playing at the second slowest tempo in the NBA in the past two weeks. The last two times these two have played the game has gone over solely because of overtime. This number is a few points too high. Take the under. |
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04-03-15 | New Orleans Pelicans v. Sacramento Kings UNDER 205 | 101-95 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Friday Night Totals MONEY* The Sacramento Kings will be without Rudy Gay tonight. Gay averages 20.9 points per game, and he gives the team a great second option to DeMarcus Cousins. Cousins has been playing great of late, but he isn't 100 percent. New Orleans is playing at the slowest tempo of any team in the NBA over the last five games. The Pelicans are slowing things down as they realize they must win to have any chance to get into the playoffs. This game means a lot to them. On average, the more the game means to a team, the lower scoring that game is. The Kings are playing at an NBA league average pace over the last two weeks, and I think they'll play a little slower without Rudy Gay in the lineup. This total is awfully high considering one of the top scorers is out and the pace should be slow. Take the under. |
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04-01-15 | New Orleans Pelicans v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 193.5 | 113-92 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Los Angeles Lakers host the New Orleans Pelicans tonight at Staples Center. New Orleans is working hard to try to get into the eighth spot in the Western Conference playoff standings. They still have a chance. New Orleans has decided to slow the tempo down and focus more on defense as these games get even more important for them. New Orleans is playing at the single slowest tempo of any team in the NBA over their last three games. Los Angeles also ranks in the bottom ten in the NBA in terms of pace in the last ten. Another key here is the three referees for this game. Between the three referees here, the under is a combined 100-64. There should be less fouls called here than in a normal NBA game. The under is 8-0 in the Lakers last 8 home games following a road trip of 7 days or more. The under is 5-0 in the Lakers last 5 vs. the NBA Southwest. A 13-0 angle. Take the under. |
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03-30-15 | Phoenix Suns v. Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 201.5 | 86-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Phoenix Suns offense has been terrible over the last month. It seems like the teams trades have hurt their offensive output. On the other hand, the Suns are playing much better on the defensive end. Phoenix isn't pushing the tempo as much as they were earlier this year. Portland ranks in the bottom ten in the league in terms of tempo over the past ten games. All three referees in this matchup are favorable to an under bet. The under is 21-8 in the Suns last 29 games. The under is 5-1 in their last 6 meetings in Portland. This line is a few points too high. Take the under. |
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03-27-15 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Houston Rockets UNDER 205.5 | 110-120 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 44 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Houston Rockets defense got a lot better when Dwight Howard entered the fold again last game. The Rockets also slowed the pace of the game down in a big way. Houston was playing at about 100 possessions per game, but last game it was 91. Minnesota has drastically slowed down their tempo, and the Timberwolves offense isn't efficient at all. Two of the three referees in this one are very favorable for an under play. The under is 23-12 in Haywoode Workman's 35 games this year lined at 195 points or higher. A number this high isn't justified. Take the under. |
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03-27-15 | Boston Celtics v. New York Knicks UNDER 194.5 | 96-92 | Win | 100 | 4 h 52 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Totals TKO* The Boston Celtics have worked their way into playoff position in the Eastern Conference by working hard on the defensive end. Boston ranks in the top five in the NBA on the defensive end in the past 10 games. New York ranks dead last in offensive efficiency during that span. New York slows the tempo down, and Boston is pushing the pace a little less now than they did earlier this year. In the Knicks last 7 games, only one went over this posted total in regulation (195 points against Toronto). I think this one finishes around 190 as the Knicks struggle to score again. Take the under. |
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03-25-15 | Los Angeles Clippers v. New York Knicks UNDER 197.5 | 111-80 | Win | 100 | 4 h 32 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The New York Knicks roster is so thin right now that it's difficult for them to reach anything more than 85-90 points. They are without Carmelo Anthony and Jose Calderon, and Tim Hardaway Jr. is questionable for this one. The Clippers are in a difficult scheduling position right now, and Doc Rivers has been talking about resting his starters some more. This should be a good opportunity. I think his starters will play quite a few less minutes than normal in this one. The Clippers tempo is at a league average mark over the past ten games, and the Knicks are one of the slowest paced teams in the league. Two of the three referees here (Davis and Kirkland) are terrific under referees. The under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. Take the under. |
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03-23-15 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Utah Jazz UNDER 186.5 | 106-104 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Minnesota Timberwolves actually rank in the bottom half of the NBA in terms of tempo in the past two weeks. Utah ranks at the bottom by a very big margin. The Jazz deserve a lot of credit for the job they have done recently of winning games by playing tremendous defense and controlling the tempo. Utah is the number one ranked defense in the NBA in the past month. The Timberwolves offense has been struggling against quality defenses, and I think they'll struggle to score tonight. Utah typically doesn't run up the score as much as most teams in the league. The under is 8-1 in Utah's last 9 vs. the NBA Northwest. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 following a loss. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. An 18-1 angle. Take the under. |
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03-22-15 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 195 | 87-101 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Los Angeles Lakers aren't playing at even close to the same tempo they were earlier this year. Philadelphia is still playing fast, but not as fast as they were early this year. The biggest change from both of these two teams though is how much better they are playing on the defensive end. The Lakers rank in the top ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the past two weeks. The 76ers rank number two in the NBA during that period. A healthy Nerlens Noel has boosted the Sixers defense in a big way. Also, keep in mind that these two teams are both awful on the offensive end. They both rank in the bottom five in the NBA in offensive efficiency. There aren't many shot makers healthy on these two teams. Look for a sloppy low scoring game here. Take the under. |
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03-18-15 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Toronto Raptors OVER 207.5 | 100-105 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 42 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Toronto Raptors and Minnesota Timberwolves are the second and third worst defenses in the NBA in the last month. Toronto's defense was solid earlier this year, but the team appears to not even be trying on the defensive end lately. They still want to push the tempo when they can, and Minnesota is definitely happy to run and gun. Kevin Martin has heated up for Minnesota of late, and he's capable of putting up a bunch of points in a hurry. The over is 7-2 in Toronto's last 9 games. The over is 7-3 in Minnesota's last 10 vs. the Eastern Conference. Take the over here. |
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03-16-15 | Denver Nuggets v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 196.5 | 81-92 | Win | 100 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Memphis Grizzlies always want to slow the tempo of the game down, and with Ty Lawson sitting this game out Denver is far less likely to be able to speed the game up. Lawson is the guy that makes this Denver offense go, and I don't see them being very effective against a good Memphis defense without him. Kenneth Faried is also sitting this one out. Mike Conley is questionable for the Grizzlies. Denver's defense has been improved in the last couple weeks. Haywoode Workman is one of the officials in this game, and through the past few years, he has been among the most consistent under referees in the league. I think this line is several points too high. The under is 3-0-1 in Denver's last 4 when playing on the second end of a back to back scheduling spot. The under is 4-0 in Memphis' last 4 when playing against a team with a losing record. The under is 8-0 in their last 8 home games when playing vs. a team with a road win percentage of 40% or lower. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a win by 10 points or more. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. A 23-0 angle. Take the under. |
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03-14-15 | Detroit Pistons v. Utah Jazz UNDER 184 | 85-88 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Utah Jazz have been really impressive in recent weeks. This is a team that started the season playing bad basketball, but they have reinvented themselves in recent weeks. They are playing at the slowest tempo of any team in the league in the past ten games. They are also the number one ranked defense in the NBA in the past ten games. Detroit has slowed down their tempo without Brandon Jennings. Look for a low scoring contest. The under is 7-0 in Utah's last 7 Saturday games. The under is 7-0 in Utah's last 7 vs. the Eastern Conference. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following an ATS win. An 18-0 angle. Take the under. |
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03-12-15 | New York Knicks v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 189.5 | 101-94 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA 100% Angle Total* The Los Angeles Lakers and New York Knicks are both really banged up. Both of these teams will be without their two best offensive players in this game. The Lakers aren't speeding the tempo up anymore like they were earlier this year. The Knicks tempo has been among the slowest in the NBA all year. New York is actually playing a little bit of defense lately, which has allowed for them to have some very low scoring games. The referee crew here is very helpful to the under. Also interesting is the public is betting on the over, but this line continues to drop. The under is 4-0 in the Lakers last 4. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following an ATS win. The under is 4-0 in the Knicks last 4. The under is 4-0 in the Knicks last 4 following a loss. A 16-0 angle. Take the under. |
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03-08-15 | Chicago Bulls v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 193.5 | Top | 105-116 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
*5 Star NBA TOP Play 100% CRUSHER* The San Antonio Spurs and Chicago Bulls meet in a game that is played at Noon local time for the Spurs and Bulls on Sunday. Also, with the clocks moving forward by one hour, this will feel like an 11 am game to these teams. I've always liked playing unders in early Sunday games because I've noticed trends in the long run that show the potential for some very low scoring fourth quarters in these situations. The Spurs didn't play any defense last game against Denver, and I expect them to be better defensively here. Chicago's defense has been much better since the All-Star Break. The Bulls offense is obviously not as potent without Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler. San Antonio's defense is much better now that Kawhi Leonard is healthy again. With the situation lining up this well and these two teams typically playing some very low scoring games against each, I'm making this one a very rare top rated NBA play. The under is 5-0 in the Bulls last 5 Sunday games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the NBA Southwest Division. The under is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings between these two in San Antonio. A 17-0 angle. Take the under big! |
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03-06-15 | Chicago Bulls v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 188.5 | 84-98 | Win | 100 | 5 h 39 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Indiana Pacers and Chicago Bulls meet in a key Eastern Conference matchup tonight. Indiana is playing great basketball and trying to work their way into the playoffs. The Bulls are injury depleted and they have been up and down of late. The tempo in this game should be very slow. Both teams rank in the bottom ten in the league in terms of pace in the last month. They also both rank in the top ten in terms of defensive efficiency. There aren't big offensive stars on the court here as there normally would be in a game between these two, but the defenses should come to play. The under is 5-0 in the Pacers last 5. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a win. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 home games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following an ATS cover. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road win percentage of 60% or higher. The under is 5-0 in the Bulls last 5 road games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 Friday games. A 32-0 angle. Take the under. |
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03-05-15 | Dallas Mavericks v. Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 199 | 75-94 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA TNT Late Night CASH* The Portland Trail Blazers have been really good on defense all year, and their pace isn't as fast as most believe. Dallas has slowed their tempo down in the last month, and the books have had a hard time adjusting to the Mavericks slower tempo. The Mavericks are also playing better on the defensive end. The last meeting between these two only went over the posted total because of overtime. Expect a solid effort from both defenses here. The under is 5-0 in the Blazers last 5 Thursday games. The under is 4-0 in the Mavs last 4 Thursday games. The under is 4-0 in the Mavs last 4 following a win. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the Western Conference. A 17-0 angle. Take the under. |
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03-03-15 | Washington Wizards v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 186.5 | 92-97 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Chicago Bulls offense has really slacked off without Derrick Rose in the lineup. That isn't terribly surprising since he is really the engine that drives this team. Now, they are without Jimmy Butler as well. Butler has become a terrific scoring option, and without him the Bulls have no outside scoring threats to speak of. Chicago will look to work to slow the game down even more now. Chicago's defense has improved in recent games. I believe they are focusing more on that end, because they have so much less firepower. Washington's offense is dead last in offensive efficiency in the NBA in the past eight games. This game should be a sloppy one. The under is 4-0 in the Wizards last 4 following a win. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 road games. The under is 4-0 in the Bulls last 4 when playing on one day of rest. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 overall. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games. A 20-0 angle. Take the under. |
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03-02-15 | New Orleans Pelicans v. Dallas Mavericks UNDER 198 | 93-102 | Win | 100 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Dallas Mavericks will be without both Tyson Chandler and Chandler Parsons in this one. Dallas has seen some much lower scoring games this year so far when Parsons has been on the bench. New Orleans is without Anthony Davis, Jrue Holiday, and Ryan Anderson. The Pelicans have played against some bad defenses so far without those guys, and I think they'll struggle on offense in this one. Dallas has slowed their tempo drastically in recent weeks, and New Orleans has the second slowest tempo in the NBA in the past month. James Williams and Monte McCutcheon are two of the refs here. The under is 29-17 in Williams' games this year. The under is 29-18 in McCutcheon's games. Look for less fouls in this game than a normal one. The under is a perfect 12-0 in New Orleans' 12 games this year on the second game of a back to back. The under is 6-0 in Dallas' last 6 vs. a team with a losing road record. The under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 following a loss. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following an ATS loss. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after giving up 100 points or more. A 32-0 angle. Take the under. |
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03-02-15 | Golden State Warriors v. Brooklyn Nets UNDER 210 | 108-110 | Loss | -104 | 4 h 3 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Total PERFECTION* The Brooklyn Nets and Golden State Warriors meet tonight in Brooklyn. Golden State's offense has been a little less efficient of late, which has led to lower totals for them. The Warriors are still playing great defense (#1 in the NBA this year) though and that makes the under a value here. At 210, this number is set very high. Brooklyn is a team that likes to slow it down whenever they can. Brooklyn is better on the defensive end on their home court. The referee crew for this game is terrific for an under as well, which is key. The under is 6-0 in the Warriors last 6 following a win. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more last game. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the NBA Atlantic Division. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 5-0 in Brooklyn's last 5 vs. a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. A 31-0 angle. Take the under. |
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02-27-15 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 193.5 | 89-96 | Win | 101 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Chicago Bulls have played better defense than anyone else in the NBA in the last eight games. Chicago is without Derrick Rose and Pau Gasol tonight, which means two of their best scoring options are out of the lineup. Gasol isn't particularly good on the defensive end, so I think the Bulls defense gets a little better without him. Minnesota added Kevin Garnett recently, and that should help their defense in a big way. The Timberwolves offense plays relatively fast, but they aren't that efficient. Haywoode Workman is one of the officials in this game, and the under is 28-13 in his games this year. Workman has consistently been one of the best under referees in the game. I expect a slower tempo here and some strong defense. Take the under. |
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02-11-15 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 196 | Top | 86-102 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
*5 Star NBA TOP Play of Month* The Portland Trail Blazers have been great to under bettors at home this year. The under is 18-8-1 in their home games this season. Portland is one of the best defensive teams in the league. Los Angeles was playing fast early this year, but they have abandoned that strategy and now rank in the bottom ten in the league in terms of pace in the past month. It's the day before the All-Star break for these two teams and I have found that the last day before the break is typically good for unders. The public money is coming in on the over in this game, but the line has dropped two points. That's a strong sign that I like to back. The under is 5-0-1 in the Blazers last 6 vs. a team with a win percentage below 40%. The under is 4-0-1 in the Lakers last 5 vs. the NBA Northwest. The under is 8-1-2 in the Lakers last 11 vs. the Western Conference. A 17-1 angle. Take the under big! |
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02-09-15 | Brooklyn Nets v. Milwaukee Bucks UNDER 193.5 | 97-103 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Milwaukee Bucks have been a huge surprise this year. Jason Kidd deserves a bunch of credit for the job he's done with this team. The primary reason they have exceeded expectations is their defense. Milwaukee works really hard on the defensive end, and they get Pachulia back tonight who makes their defense even better. Milwaukee plays at the league average tempo. Brooklyn plays at the fourth slowest tempo in the NBA. Neither of these offenses are very efficient. Brooklyn's Deron Williams is questionable for tonight's game. This total is a few points too high. All year Brooklyn has been a great under team on the road and Milwaukee has been a great under team at home. The under is 4-0 in the Nets last 4. The under is 4-0 in the Bucks last 4 Monday games. The under is 6-0 in the Bucks last 6 vs. the NBA Atlantic. A 14-0 angle. Take the under. |
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02-04-15 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. New Orleans Pelicans UNDER 194 | 102-91 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA 100% Angle Total* The New Orleans Pelicans and Oklahoma City Thunder meet in a game that I expect to be low scoring tonight. Kevin Durant is out again here, and you don't need me to tell you what kind of a difference that makes to OKC's offense. The Pelicans have slowed their tempo in a big way in the past month. They are playing at the second slowest pace in the league during that time. They have also picked up their defensive intensity. We have three referees here who have been good for under bettors in the past. The public is backing the over, but the line is dropping. The under is 6-0 in OKC's last 6 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following an ATS loss. The under is 4-0 in the Pelicans last 4 vs. the NBA Northwest. A 19-0 angle. Take the under. |
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01-30-15 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Philadelphia 76ers UNDER 193 | 94-103 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Philadelphia 76ers have changed the way they are playing lately. They aren't pushing the tempo even close to the amount they were early in the year. In the past month, they rank only 11th in the NBA in pace. They are also playing much better defense. It would likely surprise a lot of people to know that this team has consistently ranked in the top ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the past month. Minnesota's defense is bad, but this Sixers offense is so bad that they struggle to score on anyone. Tony Wroten's absence has made the bad Sixers offense even worse. This should be an ugly game all the way around. The under is 5-0-1 in the Timberwolves last 6 Friday games. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a win. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 100 points or more. The under is 4-0 in the 76ers last 4 Friday games. The under is 4-0 in the 76ers last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The under is 8-0 in their last 8 home games. The under is 6-0 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their last game. The under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A 41-0 angle. Take the under. |
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01-26-15 | Orlando Magic v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 205 | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Play of Day* This one is a contrarian play going against Orlando's current 'over' streak. The Magic have decided to pick up the tempo and most teams they have played against were happy to oblige. Tonight, they'll play a Memphis Grizzlies team that will want no part of running and gunning. Memphis is going to work hard to keep this a halfcourt game and use their frontcourt strength to dominate in the paint. Memphis has been tremendous on defense lately, ranking in the top five in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last two weeks. A big benefit to this one is three referees who lean to the under, especially with a high number like this. The under is a combined 20-10 with a posted total of 205 or higher with these three referees. Take the under. |
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01-25-15 | Milwaukee Bucks v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 191 | 95-101 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Antonio Spurs defense got a lot better last week when Kawhi Leonard rejoined the lineup. San Antonio is 22nd in the league out of 30 teams in terms of pace, so they have slowed down dramatically this year compared to the last couple seasons. Milwaukee plays at the league average tempo. The Bucks have been a great under team all year. Why? Because these Bucks are working really hard on the defensive end. Milwaukee is now second in the NBA in defense efficiency behind only the Golden State Warriors. San Antonio ranks sixth in the NBA in defensive efficiency and that will likely improve with a healthy Leonard. Two of the three referees for this game are solid under referees. The under is 7-0 in the Bucks last 7 road games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 following a win by 10 points or more. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 following an ATS win. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record. A 30-0 angle. Take the under. |
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01-23-15 | Los Angeles Lakers v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 196.5 | 85-99 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Antonio Spurs currently rank 22nd out of 30 teams in the NBA in terms of pace, so it's clear that Coach Poppovich has the team slowing the game down compared to the last few seasons. Kawhi Leonard is back, and he's the best defender on the team. The Spurs rank in the top five in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the past two weeks. Los Angeles will be without Kobe Bryant for the rest of the season after he tore his rotator cuff. I've noticed a trend now for more than a month where the Lakers are definitely slowing down their tempo. After ranking in the top five in the league in terms of pace for much of the year, the Lakers have fallen to number eight. Their offensive efficiency is really poor now, and I think the Spurs can put the clamps down on them. Also, the public is betting about 75% on the over in this one, but the line has dropped, and I certainly like that. The under is 7-0-1 in the Lakers last 8 road games. The under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 vs. the Western Conference. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss by 10 points or more. The under is 4-0 in the Spurs last 4 following an ATS loss. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more last game. A 30-0 angle. Take the under. |
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01-21-15 | Houston Rockets v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 218.5 | 113-126 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA on ESPN CASH* The Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets meet tonight at Golden State. These two teams met less than a week ago. I was on the under in that game and I lost as the final score went to 131-106. The posted total in that game was 214 points. We get a number 4.5 points higher today. It is well worth mentioning that there were 67 free throws taken in this past weekend's game between these two teams. In their two earlier meetings this year, the total number of free throws taken was in the 30's. That was a huge reason why this most recent game was much higher scoring. If we subtract about 20 points from last weekend's game based on a more normalized amount of free throws we are already under this total. Golden State shot 55% from the floor in the last game as well. These two teams rank number one and number two in the league in defensive efficiency. With this elevated total, I'm taking the under. |
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01-19-15 | Sacramento Kings v. Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 205 | 94-98 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Play of Day* The Portland Trail Blazers are often known for their offense, but it has really been defense that has gotten them to their hot start this year. Portland is fourth in the NBA in total defense. Sacramento has two stars listed as questionable here (DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay). Cousins isn't listed on the team's home page as a probable starter, so I'll consider him doubtful for this game. Even with Cousins playing, I think this total is too high, and without him it is certainly too high. J.T. Orr is the lead official in this game and the under is 20-9 in his 29 games this year. The under is 4-0 in the Kings last 4 vs. the Western Conference. The under is 3-0-1 in the Blazers last 4 home games. The under is 3-0-1 in the Blazers last 4 when their opponent has allowed 100 or more last game. Take the under. |
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01-17-15 | Golden State Warriors v. Houston Rockets UNDER 214 | 131-106 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 52 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Play of Day* Guess who the top two defensive teams in the NBA are right now? In terms of defensive efficiency the number one ranked defense is the Golden State Warriors. The number two ranked defense is the Houston Rockets. A game between the top two defenses in the NBA being lined at 214 points just seems ridiculous to me. I realize that both of these offenses are good and both teams like to play fast, but 214 is a lot of points. Both meetings this year have gone well under this posted total (185 and 198), and there's no reason to believe this one will suddenly be far higher scoring. The under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams. The under is 16-5 in Houston's last 21 home games. Take the under. |
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01-14-15 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 208 | 100-94 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Late Night BAILOUT* The Portland Blazers are the third best defense in the NBA in terms of efficiency. Many see them as a run and gun team because they have a couple great scorers in Lillard and Aldridge, but that really isn't the Blazers style this year. Portland and Los Angeles both play at the NBA league average tempo, and this total is set at 208 points, which is a number we usually only see when two teams who really push the tempo play against each other. The under is 4-0-1 in the Clippers last 5 Wednesday games. The under is 4-0 in the Clippers last 4 following an ATS loss. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more. The under is 3-0-1 in the Blazers last 4. A 15-0 angle. Take the under. |
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01-14-15 | Houston Rockets v. Orlando Magic UNDER 200 | 113-120 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 47 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Totals TKO* The Orlando Magic played a very high scoring game in Chicago, but if you look at the long-term trends for this team, Orlando is not a team that is involved in many high scoring contests. Houston has the second ranked defense in the NBA. Orlando's offensive efficiency is near the bottom of the NBA. The referee crew here is a very favorable one. Two of the three here are terrific under refs, and Haywoode Workman has consistently been one of the very best every year. The under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between these two. Take the under. |
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01-13-15 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 195.5 | 110-101 | Loss | -102 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Indiana Pacers are finally getting back to what they do well, and that is play some terrific defense. Indiana started the season with a bunch of injuries, and that seemed to mess with their defensive chemistry. Lately, this team has been much better on the defensive end. Indiana likes to slow the tempo down, and Minnesota's offense is just dreadful. In fact, these two teams are two of the four least efficient offenses in the country. With two inefficient offenses and one very good defense, this total is a bit high. Marc Davis is one of the best under refs in the business, and he's one of the refs in this game. Take the under. |
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01-11-15 | Miami Heat v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 200 | 104-90 | Win | 100 | 2 h 49 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Play of Day* The Los Angeles Clippers and Miami Heat tip off at 12:35 pm local time for this one. I've always liked playing the early Sunday unders. These players aren't used to starting early in the day, and on a Saturday night in Los Angeles there is certainly a chance some of these players were out late. You'll often see less than 100 percent effort in these types of games. The referee crew here is favorable for the under. Miami plays at the slowest pace of anyone in the NBA. The under is 6-0 in Miami's last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 5-0 in Miami's last 5 Sunday games. Take the under. |
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01-10-15 | Orlando Magic v. Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 195 | 92-103 | Push | 0 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Portland Trail Blazers are playing great defense this year. It would surprise most people to learn that the Blazers are currently the third best in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Portland also has slowed down their pace of play. They rank 15th out of 30 in the league in tempo. Orlando is one of the 5 slowest paced teams in the league. Orlando also has the second least efficient offense in the league (only the 76ers are worse). The Magic's terrible offense combined with Portland's strong defense should mean the Magic don't put up many points here. The Blazers are dinged up right now and likely just want out of this one with a win. The under is 39-16 in the Magic's last 55 road games. The under is 4-1 in the Blazers last 5 home games. Take the under. |
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01-07-15 | Indiana Pacers v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 203 | 102-117 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Golden State Warriors are well known for their amazing offense, but not enough people give them credit for the defense they play. Golden State is easily number one in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Steve Kerr has this team very committed on the defensive end of the court. Indiana struggled a bit defensively early this year, but the Pacers have gotten much better as they have gotten healthier in recent weeks. The Pacers won't want to run with Golden State, so they should slow the tempo down quite a bit here. The referee crew for this game is very favorable for the under as well. Expect a strong defensive effort from both teams. I think this game stays below 200 points. Take the under. |
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01-05-15 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 209.5 | 94-98 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* It would probably surprise a lot of people to learn that Portland ranks third in the NBA in defensive efficiency. This Portland team is really playing well on the defensive end. Los Angeles has slowed the tempo down quite a bit in recent weeks, and Kobe Bryant will sit out this game for the Lakers. I think Los Angeles will have a lot of trouble scoring in this one. Portland should score a lot early, but they will likely take their foot off the gas later in the game. I think this line should have been 205 or so. Take the under. |
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01-05-15 | Dallas Mavericks v. Brooklyn Nets UNDER 206 | 96-88 | Win | 100 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Totals TKO* This totally is a bit inflated. Dallas doesn't play particularly fast, and the Brooklyn Nets are all about slowing the game down and trying to win with defense with their new coaching staff. A total of 206 is usually reserved for two teams that will uptempo with very little defense. I don't see that as the case here. Take the under. |
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12-28-14 | Toronto Raptors v. Denver Nuggets UNDER 212 | 116-102 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 50 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Late Night BAILOUT* The Denver Nuggets offense has been off the mark lately. Denver likes to play fast, but their efficiency on the offensive end has been really low in recent games. Since Gallinari went down with an injury, this team lost a key offensive contributor. Toronto is very good offensively, but they have slowed down their tempo since DeRozan went down with an injury. The Raptors are playing the second game of a back to back situation here in the altitude in Denver. Toronto is likely to play even slower tonight than they normally do. Both teams defenses have improved in recent weeks. This total is a few points too high. The under is 4-0 in the Nuggets last 4 playing on 1 day of rest. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 Sunday games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the Eastern Conference. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following a win. The under is 8-0-1 in their last 9 after allowing more than 100 points last game. The under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 after scoring more than 100 points last game. A 36-0 angle. Take the under. |
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12-28-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Dallas Mavericks UNDER 211.5 | 107-112 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 48 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder meet in a key showdown of two of the best teams in the Western Conference tonight. Rajon Rondo brings another element to this Dallas team. While most people are focusing solely on his offense, Rondo improves this team defensively as well. Oklahoma City has been playing some lights out defense in recent games. The Thunder rank fifth in the NBA in defensive efficiency. While both of these teams are clearly capable of scoring a lot, neither team plays particularly fast and this is a very high total. James Williams is one of the refs in this game, and he has been one of the most consistent under referees in the league. Take the under. |
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12-27-14 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Utah Jazz UNDER 197 | 71-88 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Total Takedown* The Utah Jazz play at the third slowest tempo in the NBA. Philadelphia likes to play fast, but they are playing a possession or so slower than they did earlier this year. The 76ers are the least efficient offense in the NBA, and it's not even close. Quietly though, the 76ers are starting to play good defense. Philadelphia is 12th in the NBA in defensive efficiency and they are in the top 10 for the past month. I believe that gives some value to the under in certain spots for the 76ers, and this is one of those spots. This should be a sloppy game. Take the under. |
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12-27-14 | Indiana Pacers v. Brooklyn Nets UNDER 191 | 110-85 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Brooklyn Nets and Indiana Pacers are both offensively challenged this year. Both of them are improved of late on the defensive end though. Both of these teams rank in the top ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the past month. Brooklyn's tempo has slowed drastically with a new coach and a different scheme. Indiana has always been a slow it down type team that plays good defense with Frank Vogel at the helm. There's an angle here that I like quite a bit. The under is a perfect 9-0 in the Nets last 9 games after giving up 100 points or more in their last game. Look for both defenses to clamp down here. Take the under. |
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12-23-14 | Denver Nuggets v. Brooklyn Nets UNDER 199.5 | 96-102 | Win | 100 | 4 h 47 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Brooklyn Nets have really slowed the tempo down in the last couple weeks. This is a team with a lot of older players, and they have a coach who prefers to play grind it out style games. Without Deron Williams in the lineup, Brooklyn doesn't have a point guard who wants to push the ball. Denver looked totally gassed last night in their big loss at Charlotte, and I can't imagine they'll look much better tonight. Without Gallinari, the Nuggets scoring options are reduced significantly. Two of the three referees assigned to this game are solid under referees. The under is 6-0-1 in the Nuggets last 7 after allowing 100 points or more last game. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent has scored 100 points or more last game. The under is 5-0 in Brooklyn's last 5 vs. the Western Conference. The under is 8-0 in their last 8 after allowing 100 points or more last game. A 28-0 angle. Take the under. |
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12-19-14 | Utah Jazz v. Orlando Magic UNDER 193 | 101-94 | Loss | -102 | 23 h 30 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Orlando Magic have changed in a big way since they got Nikola Vucevic back in the lineup. The tempo that Orlando plays at drastically slowed down. The Magic defense gets much better with a shot blocker at the back of the defense. Utah plays at the third slowest tempo of anyone in the NBA. Both of these teams rank in the bottom ten teams in the NBA in terms of offensive efficiency as well. Earlier this year, these two played to a final score of 98-93, and that was before Orlando got Vucevic back. The tempo should be even slower here. I had this number at 188 points. The under is 6-1 in the Magic's last 7 games on one day of rest. The under is 24-9 in their last 33 vs. a Western Conference team. Take the under. |
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12-18-14 | New York Knicks v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 191.5 | 97-103 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 11 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA on TNT Totals MONEY* The Chicago Bulls and New York Knicks meet tonight. Chicago beat New York 104-80 in the first game between these two. The posted total in that game was 184 points, so it finished a push. The posted total here has jumped by 7.5 points. I realize the Bulls are playing faster than they have in the past, but this jump is just too much. New York plays at the second slowest tempo of any team in the NBA. Carmelo Anthony and Derrick Rose are both listed as questionable for this one. Anthony is struggling with a knee injury, and he sounded less than optimistic about his chances of playing tonight. If he doesn't play, the Knicks have some even more severe issues on offense. J.R. Smith won't play here either, and the Knicks certainly aren't filled with scoring options. This seems like a spot where New York could struggle to get past 85 points or so. Rose is less than 100 percent even if he does play, and that should slow the game down a bit. Take the under. |
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12-17-14 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 203.5 | 97-104 | Win | 100 | 6 h 6 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Late Night BAILOUT* The Portland Trail Blazers have impressed me with their defensive intensity so far this year. Portland primarily won by outscoring their opponent last year, but this season Portland has been very good on the defensive end. Milwaukee is also ranked in the top ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Bucks lost Jabari Parker to a season ending knee injury. This is their first game playing without him, and I think that will change the offense and hurt them until they get accustomed to playing without him. Losing a key player like that can take a few games to adjust to. I made this total 199 points. Take the under here. |
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12-17-14 | Orlando Magic v. Boston Celtics UNDER 200 | 92-109 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Totals TKO* The Orlando Magic are playing at a much slower pace since Vucevic returned to the lineup. He's a big guy who can score down low as well as protect the basket on defense. It's become apparent that Coach Vaughn has decided the Magic have a better chance of winning by slowing things down now, and so far that has proven to be true. While the Celtics do love to run, both of these teams have been much improved on the defensive end. They both rank in the top ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the past two weeks. Neither of these teams is efficient at all on the offensive end. Take the under. |
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12-16-14 | Golden State Warriors v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 203 | 98-105 | Push | 0 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Memphis Grizzlies and Golden State Warriors meet in a battle of two of the best teams in the NBA tonight. I expect both teams to be ready for this one. Memphis has some very good perimeter defenders in Tony Allen and Mike Conley. Look for those guys to make it their mission to make Golden State's stars take tougher shots than normal. Golden State is usually thought of as a very high scoring team that wins with offense. They can definitely score, but their defense has been the reason they are on an amazing win streak. The Warriors are first in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Grizzlies are seventh. Memphis will try to slow this game down. A total set this high is generally reserved for two teams looking to push it or two bad defenses. Those things aren't true here. The last nine meetings between these two teams have finished below this posted total. I look for this to be the 10th. Take the under. |
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12-13-14 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Philadelphia 76ers UNDER 195 | 120-115 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 1 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Memphis Grizzlies beat the Charlotte Hornets in double overtime on Friday night. I can't imagine they will be too fired up to run up the score as much as they could on the 76ers on Saturday night. Philadelphia is quietly playing a little better of late. What has changed? The 76ers are starting to play much better defense. Philadelphia actually ranks in the top half of the NBA in defense. Memphis ranks in the top five in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The 76ers still play relatively fast, but they have slowed down the tempo a bit compared to last year. Memphis is once again one of the slowest paced teams in the league. Some of the 76ers recent games have been very low scoring. This total is a few points too high. The under is 7-0 in the Grizzlies last 7 games when playing on zero days of rest. The under is 8-0 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning percentage of 40% or lower. A 20-0 angle. Take the under. |
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12-12-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Minnesota Timberwolves UNDER 204.5 | 111-92 | Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA TGIF Play of Day* The Oklahoma City Thunder have been really good on defense all year. Minnesota likes to run, but they are extremely inefficient on offense. I think their offensive woes will be highlighted in this one as Oklahoma City locks things up on the defensive end. Oklahoma City has continued to play at a slower pace even with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook back in the lineup. The three referees in this game definitely lean to the under which is a big help as well. Another interesting note about this game- The posted total here has dropped despite the majority of the public money being on the over. That's a strong signal. The under is 5-0 in OKC's last 5 Friday games. The under is 6-1 in their last 7 following an ATS win. Take the under. |
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12-10-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 200 | 103-96 | Win | 100 | 3 h 6 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Indiana Pacers are still one of the top ten teams in the league in defensive efficiency. The Clippers are #12 as well, so their defense is better than most realize. Indiana's offense is third worst in the NBA right now, and they don't have much chemistry at all on the offensive end right now. What about the pace of this game? The Clippers average tempo is right at the league average. The Pacers are close to the bottom in terms of tempo. The referees in this one are also helpful. Both Ken Mauer and Haywoode Workman are guys who have consistently been good under referees in the long term. Less fouls in this one could be the difference. The under is 5-1 in the Pacers last 6 home games. This line is a bit inflated. Take the under. |
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12-09-14 | Toronto Raptors v. Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 206.5 | 101-105 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Play of Day* The Cleveland Cavaliers have decided to slow things down in recent weeks. They have also started playing some defense. They now rank right in the middle of the pack defensively. Earlier this year they were among the worst in the league on the defensive end. Toronto's offense is good, but they aren't nearly as good as they were before DeRozan went down with an injury. Toronto's pace has slowed down a lot without DeRozan pushing the tempo too. A total set this high is generally saved for teams that push the tempo and play very little defense. That isn't true about either of these teams right now. I had this total set at 201.5. The under is an impressive 8-3 in the Cavs last 11 games. The under is 35-16-1 in the last 52 meetings between these two teams. Take the under. |
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12-06-14 | New Orleans Pelicans v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 207 | 100-120 | Loss | -112 | 20 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Clippers come into this one on plenty of rest, and I think that means some strong defense from the improving Clippers. Though they started the year slowly, this Clippers team is definitely a really talented bunch. New Orleans limps into this game. The Pelicans miss Eric Gordon in a big way. Without Gordon this offense has scored 91 points or less in four of their last five games. Gordon is a guy who puts up 15 points per game when he is healthy, and that's tough to replace. A total set this high typically needs two high scoring offenses. The Clippers can score in bunches, but the Pelicans offense is weakened significantly of late. The under is 4-1 in the Pelicans last 5 games since Gordon went down with an injury. The under is also 11-5 in the Clippers last 16 vs. a team with a losing road record. That's important because it means the Clippers often flex their muscle on the defensive end in a game like this. Take the under. |
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12-04-14 | New Orleans Pelicans v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 206 | 85-112 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA on TNT MONEY* The Golden State Warriors play very fast. Everyone knows the Warriors play fast. What most people don't know is that the Warriors are number one in the NBA in defensive efficiency right now, and second place isn't even close. Steve Kerr has this team playing some amazing defense. New Orleans has a decent offense, but their offense suffered a big blow when Eric Gordon went down with an injury. Their offensive efficiency has been much worse with him out of the lineup. I don't think the Pelicans get very many easy looks tonight. New Orleans will look to slow the game down too, which should help this one. The under is 4-0 in the Pelicans last 4 games vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in the Warriors last 4 Thursday games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The under is 4-0 in the Warriors last 4 home games overall. The under is also 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. A 21-0 angle. Take the under. |
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12-03-14 | Dallas Mavericks v. Milwaukee Bucks UNDER 207 | 107-105 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Dallas Mavericks are coming off a double overtime win. I had them as my play of the week in that game, and they did end up getting there. There's no doubt they put in some extra effort in that game though, and there were a lot of tired Mavericks at the end of that game. Dallas has the most efficient offense in the NBA, but I see them being a little less efficient on tired legs tonight. Milwaukee is 7th in the NBA in total defense, and Jason Kidd's team has been working hard on the defensive end. Neither of these teams play all that fast, so a total of 207 is awfully high. With two teams in the top half of the NBA in total defense and some tired legs, I think this stays under the posted total. Take the under. |
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12-02-14 | Brooklyn Nets v. New York Knicks UNDER 193.5 | 98-93 | Win | 100 | 4 h 35 m | Show | |
*4 Star Nets/Knicks Total DOMINATION* The New York Knicks offense has been awful of late. New York also plays at the single slowest tempo of any team in the NBA. Brooklyn started out playing fast, but the Nets have slowed down a lot of late. Brooklyn can't play terribly fast because of Brook Lopez. Lopez is one of the reasons Brooklyn is always solid on the defensive end. J.R. Smith is likely to miss this one with an illness, and the Knicks have a hard time scoring to start with. These two teams definitely see this as a real rivalry, and that generally leads to lower scoring games with better defense. The line movement here kept this one from being a top rated play, but my number was 186. Take the under. |
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12-02-14 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Detroit Pistons UNDER 206 | 106-96 | Win | 100 | 3 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Totals TKO* The Los Angeles Lakers defense is awful, so taking an under with them is always risky, but the Lakers have showed signs of slowing the game down a bit of late. A total of 206 in a game where one team (Detroit) plays at a very slow pace is definitely worth a look. Detroit hasn't had a game go above 202 in their last nine games. The Pistons are playing improved defense under Stan Van Gundy, but they are a real mess on the offensive end. I had this number at 201 points. Take the under. |
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11-26-14 | Indiana Pacers v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 188 | 100-106 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Totals CASH* The San Antonio Spurs aren't playing as fast on offense as they did last year. What they are doing though is locking opponents down on the defensive end. Indiana has lots of problems scoring right now with injuries depleting them of their best offensive players. The Pacers are going to slow the game down and play their normal gritty defense. The pace should be slower than expected here, and both teams will have to work hard to score. The under is 4-0 in the Spurs last 4 Wednesday games. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. the Eastern Conference. The under is 6-1 in the Spurs last 7 home games. A 16-1 angle here. Take the under. |
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11-26-14 | Utah Jazz v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 183.5 | 82-97 | Win | 100 | 17 h 42 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* Anytime you see an NBA total this low, you have to examine the reasons for that number. Oklahoma City is struggling to find anyone who can score consistently with their ridiculous amount of injury problems. The Thunder have Durant, Westbrook, Andre Roberson, Mitch McGary, Perry Jones, and several others all sidelined. Utah toyed with playing uptempo early this year, but they have slowed down a lot in recent outings. Utah's offense isn't efficient, and it's because they aren't as balanced as most teams in the NBA. Oklahoma City has been excellent on the defensive end at home so far this year. The under is 4-0 in the Thunder's last 4 home games. The under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two in Oklahoma City. Take the under. |
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11-26-14 | Golden State Warriors v. Orlando Magic UNDER 203.5 | 111-96 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 32 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Orlando Magic have some serious problems right now. Orlando wasn't any good offensively to start with, and now they have all sorts of injury issues. The Magic are playing without Aaron Gordon for a long time. They are now also without Tobias Harris, who had been their most consistent scorer of late. Harris missed the morning shoot around today, so he is doubtful for tonight's game. Golden State is playing a back to back game here, so I expect them to be a little bit worn down. The Warriors are clearly the much better team and can win this game comfortably, but they might take their foot off the gas a little earlier tonight. The Warriors also have one of the best defenses in the NBA, and the Magic are unlikely to get many open looks here. I think this one stays in the 190's. The under is 4-0-1 in Golden State's last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in the Magic's last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The under is 4-0 in the Magic's last 4 vs. the NBA Pacific Division. The under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings between these two. The under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in Orlando between these teams. A 21-0 angle. Take the under. |
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11-21-14 | Phoenix Suns v. Philadelphia 76ers OVER 206 | 122-96 | Win | 100 | 16 h 42 m | Show | |
*3 Star TGIF NBA Play of Day* The Philadelphia 76ers play at the second fastest tempo of any team in the NBA. The Phoenix Suns are the fourth fastest in the league in terms of tempo. When these two get together, you can certainly expect a track meet. I'll be the first to admit that this Sixers offense is dreadfully bad, so counting on them can be a little hard, but the value here is too much to overlook. These teams played twice last season. The final scores in those two games were 115-101 and 124-113. The posted totals were 216 and 213.5. We are getting this one at a much cheaper price. The Suns love to run, and they'll put up a very big number here led by their great guards. If the Sixers offense can be decent at all, this one goes over the total. Value play here. Take the over. |
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11-19-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 202.5 | 92-90 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 49 m | Show | |
*3 Star Spurs/Cavs Total DOMINATION* The Cleveland Cavaliers started the year playing at a much slower tempo than I expected, but in recent games they have picked up the pace in a big way. Cleveland's offense is getting much more efficient, and after a rare poor game offensively las time against Denver, I think we see the Cavs bounce back offensively here. Cleveland has some real problems on the defensive end. The team defense here is about as bad as you'll see. San Antonio is absolutely a team that can take advantage of that with their amazing ball movement. The Spurs have been a little off the mark offensively most of this year, but I think their offense will be humming in this one against one of the worst defenses in the league. Both teams prefer to push the pace and both of these offenses can put up points in bunches. This total is set at a very reasonable level. The over is 8-1 in the Cavs last 9 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two. A 16-2 angle. Take the over. |
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11-18-14 | New Orleans Pelicans v. Sacramento Kings OVER 199 | 106-100 | Win | 100 | 28 h 23 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Sacramento Kings are going to keep playing at a fast pace this year. The Kings early season success has been largely due to their improved defense. While their defense might be a bit better this year, I'm not convinced they can keep playing at the level they have so far this year on the defensive end. New Orleans is number three in the NBA in offensive efficiency. Anthony Davis is a matchup nightmare for just about everyone, and the Pelicans have tons of guys who can shoot it from long range. Sacramento should get their points in transition here too since the Pelicans are below average on the defensive end. The over is 4-0 in the Kings last 4 following a win. The over is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings between these two. Take the over. |
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11-17-14 | Phoenix Suns v. Boston Celtics OVER 214.5 | 118-114 | Win | 100 | 16 h 51 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Boston Celtics tempo has changed in a big way this year. Boston is pushing it at every opportunity, and that is very beneficial for a team with Rajon Rondo at the point guard spot. Boston has a lot of guys that can get into the paint, and the one thing Phoenix really lacks is a shot blocker on the inside. The Phoenix Suns will likely end the season as one of the top three fastest teams in the league in terms of pace. Phoenix wants to run at every opportunity with a backcourt of Dragic, Bledsoe, and Thomas. This game should be a real track meet. Both offenses have been efficient of late, and the defenses are subpar. The over is 6-0 in the Celtics last 6 vs. a team with a road win percentage of 40% or lower. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 following a loss. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing road record. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more last game. The over is 5-0 in Boston's last 5 after the Celtics gave up 100 points or more last game. The over is 5-0 in the Celtics 5 home games this year. A 33-0 angle. Take the over. |
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11-17-14 | Orlando Magic v. Detroit Pistons UNDER 191.5 | 107-93 | Loss | -102 | 16 h 50 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Play of Day* The Detroit Pistons and Orlando Magic meet on Monday night. Detroit is a different team than they were last year. They are playing much better defense for new coach Stan Van Gundy. I expect that trend to continue since Van Gundy has proven to be a good defensive coach in the past. Detroit has been very poor on offense though. The Pistons rank in the bottom six in the NBA in offensive efficiency. Orlando is just as inefficient on offense. The Magic are unlikely to be as good on offense now with Aaron Gordon out of the lineup also. Orlando's tempo is right around the league average, while Detroit is playing at the fourth slowest tempo in the league. This should be an ugly one. Take the under. |
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11-15-14 | Detroit Pistons v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 187.5 | 88-95 | Win | 100 | 17 h 16 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Memphis Grizzlies have played some abnormally high scoring games in their past couple contests. Memphis won high scoring affairs against both the Lakers and the Kings the past few days. Detroit is a much different team than Sacramento or Los Angeles. The Pistons are one of the least efficient offenses in the NBA. They also rank 23 out of 30 NBA teams in terms of pace. Memphis ranks 25 out of 30 teams in pace. The Grizzlies also have one of the best defenses in the NBA. It would be a big surprise if Detroit has consistent success on offense in this game. Memphis tends to not blow out their opponent. Look for a low scoring contest here. The recent high scores in Memphis’ last 2 games give us good line value on the under. Take the under. |
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11-14-14 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Orlando Magic UNDER 193.5 | 85-101 | Win | 100 | 16 h 29 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Orlando Magic and Milwaukee Bucks both rank near the bottom of the NBA in offensive efficiency. Orlando is 25th out of 30 teams in the league and Milwaukee is 29th. Milwaukee deserves credit for the way they are playing defense though. The Bucks have been the second best defense in the NBA through the first couple weeks of the year. Jason Kidd is doing a good job getting this young team to buy into his system. Orlando's defense is middle of the pack. With two teams who don't play particularly fast and two teams who generally shoot a very low percentage, a total of 193.5 is several points too high. Take the under here. |
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11-07-14 | Sacramento Kings v. Phoenix Suns OVER 207 | 114-112 | Win | 100 | 19 h 10 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA RED HOT Run CASH* The Phoenix Suns and Sacramento Kings have a long history of playing uptempo high scoring games against each other. Phoenix is making an even bigger effort to run this year. Why wouldn't they? The Suns backcourt has Eric Bledsoe, Goran Dragic, and Isaiah Thomas who are all absolutely speed burners. The Suns big men (Morris twins and Plumlee) aren't particularly good at sitting in the low post, but they can run the floor extremely well. Sacramento is always glad to run the floor, and their coaching staff is loaded with coaches who have a history of pushing the tempo. They put up 131 points in their last win. Rudy Gay is a scoring machine, and Cousins will have an advantage in the interior. Five of the last six meetings between these two have finished at 210 points or higher. Expect lots of transition buckets and a bunch of points here. Take the over. |
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11-07-14 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Detroit Pistons UNDER 193.5 | 95-98 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Totals TKO* The Detroit Pistons and Milwaukee Bucks have both improved a great deal on the defensive end from last year. Both of these teams have new coaches and that has led to a much more concerted effort on the defensive end. Jason Kidd is preaching defense in a big way, and the Bucks have several athletic shot blockers down low. Detroit didn't even pretend to try on defense last year, but Stan Van Gundy won't allow that this season. In addition to two improved defenses, we have two offenses that aren't efficient at all. Both of these teams rank in the bottom six teams in the NBA in terms of offensive efficiency so far this year. All three referees here are what I would consider good draws for an under play. I made this line 189.5. Take the under here. |
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11-07-14 | New York Knicks v. Brooklyn Nets UNDER 193.5 | 99-110 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 1 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Knicks/Nets Total DOMINATION* The Brooklyn Nets played fast in their first couple games this year, but that was before Brook Lopez came back in the lineup. With Lopez back, the team slows the pace down quite a bit. Lopez also provides the team with a good defender in the middle of the paint. New York is playing at a far slower pace than any team in the NBA through the first few games. The Knicks are still learning their new offense, and it seems like that has caused them to be more cautious and hesitant. Two of three referees in this game are favorable for this under play as well. Look for a game that is played in the halfcourt. This line is several points too high. Take the under. |
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11-05-14 | Denver Nuggets v. Sacramento Kings OVER 202.5 | 109-131 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Totals Takedown* The Sacramento Kings rank fifth in the NBA in terms of pace. Denver ranks third in the NBA in pace. When these two meet, you are going to see a lot of transition opportunities and quick shot attempts. While both teams have solid defensive numbers so far this year, I'm not buying that these are two of the best defenses in the NBA. The Kings have a lot of guys on their roster who can score in bunches, but they haven't committed themselves on defense in their career. These two teams met last week in Denver and the Kings won 110-105. The referee assignments for this game are helpful as well. Scott Foster is consistently one of the best over refs in the league, and he is the lead referee tonight. Josh Tiven is also a nice over referee. There should be plenty of pace here and a good amount of trips to the stripe too. Take the over. |
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11-05-14 | Toronto Raptors v. Boston Celtics OVER 202 | Top | 110-107 | Win | 100 | 29 h 21 m | Show |
*5 Star NBA TOP Play of Week* The Boston Celtics and Toronto Raptors both made it clear in the preseason that they want to play far faster than they did last season. We're already seeing evidence of that from both teams. Boston is second in the NBA so far this averaging 108 points per game. Toronto has scored at least 100 points in every game this year, and they are averaging 104.8 points per contest. I like both of these coaches, and I think they are both making a wise decision to push the tempo based on their personnel. These are two teams that have depth in the backcourt and not a whole lot of inside scoring on the roster. Since these teams didn't play particularly fast last year, the oddsmakers take some time responding to the new look of the team. That allows us to have some value playing the over with them for the first couple weeks. Also, Boston ranks 25th in FG percentage defense and Toronto ranks 29th. There should be lots of quick easy buckets in this one. The over is 5-0 in the Celtics last 5 home games. The over is 4-0 in the Celtics last 4 vs. the Atlantic Division. The over is 4-0 in Toronto's last 4 vs. the Eastern Conference. A 13-0 angle. Take the over big! *Please note this line has moved up since I selected it shortly after the open. I would still play this for 5 stars up to 205, 4 stars to 206.5, and 3 stars to 208. Thank you!* |
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11-04-14 | Houston Rockets v. Miami Heat UNDER 204 | 108-91 | Win | 100 | 5 h 4 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Houston Rockets are playing at a little bit slower pace this year. They are also playing much better on the defensive end. Their offense isn't quite as potent without Chandler Parsons, but their defense is better. Miami isn't going to be a team that plays terribly fast, and I think the Heat's defense will still rank in the top half of the league despite losing James. Houston's lines have been set too high all year, and I don't think this one is any different. The Rockets defense is stepping up, and a line of 204 is simply too high. I made this line 199.5 points, so I see a few points of value in this one. The under is 6-0 in the Rockets last 6 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following a win. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. The under is 4-0 in Miami's last 4 after allowing 100 points or more. A 28-0 angle. Take the under. |
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11-01-14 | Phoenix Suns v. Utah Jazz OVER 203.5 | 91-118 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Utah Jazz have vowed to pick up the pace with Quin Snyder at the helm. He wants the team to move more quickly and pass the ball more often. The Phoenix Suns could end up as the highest scoring team in the NBA this year. I love their pickup of Isaiah Thomas. He teams up with Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe to create a ridiculously quick backcourt for the Suns. Phoenix pushed it some last year, but their tempo should be off the charts quick this season. Utah's defense isn't good at all (they were worst in the NBA last year), and the Suns were in the bottom ten as well. This game should be played at a quick tempo and we'll see lot of possessions for each team. Take the over. |
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10-31-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Sacramento Kings OVER 198.5 | 94-103 | Loss | -112 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Red HOT Run Total* By all accounts, the Sacramento Kings want to run this year. They hired a coaching staff that wants to push the tempo and go small as often as possible. While the Kings first game finished at a low score, it wasn't because the teams played slowly. In fact, Sacramento and Golden State played out to the single fastest pace of any game thus far in the NBA season. Both teams just shot the ball really poorly. Portland had one of the most efficient offenses in the league all year last year and the Kings don't have an answer to guys like Aldridge and Lillard on the defensive end. This line is definitely an overreaction to the Kings low scoring game in the opener. Too much value here to pass up. Take the over. |
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10-31-14 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Milwaukee Bucks OVER 201 | 81-93 | Loss | -107 | 19 h 41 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Milwaukee Bucks are implementing a faster style of play with Jason Kidd as coach this year. Milwaukee's roster fits a fast paced offense much better than a slow it down style. Jabari Parker will be a nice piece in his rookie season, and I expect good seasons from O.J. Mayo and Brandon Knight. Philadelphia is all about running and gunning. The 76ers are a terrible team, but they are going to put up as many shots as they can. Coach Brown has them in shape and he expects them to run for four quarters every single game. You won't see much effort on the defensive end from these guys though. This looks like a game where both teams put up a lot of quick shots and even with a relatively low shooting percentage it finishes over the total. The over is 9-0 in the 76ers last 9 following a loss. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 following an ATS loss. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 following a loss by 10 points or more. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent scores 100 or more in their previous game. The over is 4-0 in Milwaukee's last 4 Friday games. The over is 4-0 in the Bucks last 4 on Friday. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent allows 100 or more in the previous game. A 35-0 angle. Take the over. |
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10-30-14 | Washington Wizards v. Orlando Magic OVER 188.5 | 105-98 | Win | 100 | 5 h 30 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Orlando Magic plan to pick up the tempo this year. Coach Vaughan has said all throughout the preseason that he believes his team's best chance to win is to speed up the game with their athletes. With youngsters like Aaron Gordon and Elfrid Payton on the roster, I do expect the Magic to have success in transition. Orlando won't be very good defensively though, and the Wizards should get plenty of easy buckets. Washington has a big mismatch on the inside, and look for the Wizards to dominate the offensive glass and get a lot of easy putbacks. Orlando stayed under the total in their first game against a New Orleans team that likes to slow the tempo down, but Washington prefers to run as well. John Wall is at his best in transition. Both teams should push the pace here. Take the over. |
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10-29-14 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 191 | 91-103 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 45 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Indiana Pacers look a whole lot different than they did last year. Indiana is without the injured Paul George. George isn't the only key injury though. The Pacers are going to be without David West, George Hill, and CJ Watson in this game. That means Donald Sloan will start at the point guard here. Lance Stephenson is no longer on the team, and he was their second best scoring option in the backcourt last year. Without George, West, Stephenson, and their two point guards, the Pacers have some real offensive question marks. The team they are up against has all kinds of issues too though. The 76ers are without Michael Carter-Williams for this game. Joel Embiid is out with an injury as is Jason Richardson. This is a Sixers team that loves to play fast and push the pace, but the Pacers aren't going to want any part of that. Even though Philadelphia played fast last year, they had the least efficient offense in the league. Late last year, with both teams at full strength, these two played to a final score of 99-90. I expect a really ugly game here. Neither team is going to be good. The Pacers have a good defense with Roy Hibbert in the middle though, and they should control the tempo. Take the under. |
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06-10-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Miami Heat UNDER 198 | 111-92 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 49 m | Show | |
*3 Star Spurs/Heat Total CASH* I took the under in Game Two and it cashed in by five points despite the Heat shooting 52% from the floor and the Spurs knocking down 12 three-point shots. The pace of these games has been plenty slow, and even with high shooting numbers the under is showing value. If the shooting percentages come down to a more normalized number, I would expect the game to stay well under the posted total. The under is 13-5 in the last 18 meetings between these two in Miami. Both teams can't keep shooting it great forever. Remember, these are two very good defensive teams as well. Take the under here. |
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06-08-14 | Miami Heat v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 199 | 98-96 | Win | 100 | 16 h 40 m | Show | |
*4 Star Heat/Spurs Total CASH* The San Antonio Spurs and Miami Heat combined to hit 25 three-point shots in Game One. The posted total still only finished over this number by six points. The Spurs shot 59 percent from the floor in that game. Those kind of shooting numbers can't be expected again. The posted total here is several points too high. Keep in mind these teams were very similar in last year's NBA Finals, and the totals were set around 190 for each game. The public likes the over because of all the points from game one, and that gives us a chance to take the value side. Take the under. |
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05-31-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 207 | 112-107 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 22 m | Show | |
*3 Star Spurs/Thunder 100% CASH* The San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder meet in Game 6 on Saturday night in Oklahoma City. The lowest scoring games have all been played in Oklahoma City. That's because Oklahoma City's defense has shown up on their home court. With their backs up against the wall, I expect OKC to show up on defense again here. The Spurs shot the lights out last game, and the Thunder are facing elimination here. The pace generally slows down in elimination games, and this is a very high posted total. Look for a closer game here finally, and look for both defenses to step it up in a game that means a bunch to both teams. The under is 5-0 in the Spurs last 5 playing on a day of rest. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 overall. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 Conference Finals games. The under is 6-0 in OKC's last 6 games playing on one day of rest. The under is 4-0 in their last 4. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing 100 points last game. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. The under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in OKC between these teams. A 50-0 angle. Take the under. |
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05-29-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 206.5 | 89-117 | Win | 100 | 20 h 35 m | Show | |
*3 Star Thunder/Spurs Total DOMINATION* The San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder play a pivotal Game 5 in San Antonio on Thursday night. Since Serge Ibaka has come back for the Thunder, this has been a totally different series. I expect a close game in this one rather than the blowouts we have been seeing, but I do expect both defenses to play well. Oklahoma City is excellent defensively with Ibaka in the lineup, and the Spurs are underrated defensively as well. The past two games have coasted under the total despite relatively good shooting numbers. The under is 5-0 in the Thunder's last 5 playing on one day of rest. The under is 4-0 in OKC's last 4 when their opponent allows 100 points or more last game. The under is 4-0 in the Spurs last 4 when playing on a single day of rest. The under is 4-0 in the Spurs last 4 after allowing 100 points in their last game. A 17-0 angle. Take the under. |