*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Timberwolves were the best defense in the NBA in the regular season. Early in this series we didn't see a Minnesota defense that looked like a great defense. In game four, Minnesota finally ratcheted up the pressure and bothered Dallas. 

Minnesota held the Nuggets to 70 points and 90 points in Game 6 and Game 7 in elimination games. The Timberwolves coaching staff spoke a lot about the focus on defense before and after game four.

The later in the series it gets especially this deep in the playoffs, the tempo of the game typically slows down a bit. There is a lot on the line. 

Dallas has improved in a big way defensively late in the season. They have done a good job on Anthony Edwards in this series. 

Marc Davis is the main referee here and he is one of the best under refs in the NBA.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers pulled off a big comeback in the final seconds of regulation thanks to some heroics from Tyrese Maxey. They then won in overtime at Madison Square Garden. Now, the 76ers come home to play a huge game six down 3-2 in the series.

The pace in this series is very slow. The average pace is 91 possessions. With that pace, it takes 1.10 points per possession to get to this total. The defense has been much better in the last couple games of this series.

There is a lot of long term data showing that close out games in the NBA playoffs have been great to under bettors. That is especially the case if it is game six or game seven. Blindly betting playoff close out games in game 6 or game 7 to the under has an ROI of 16% in the last 15 years. This spot is 9-1 in the last 10 situations. 

This game fits the situation and I think both defenses will be ready to go in this key game on Thursday night. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The first game in this series had a total of 216.5. That total was a little too high, but now the adjustment has been too large in my opinion. The total was 210 in game three, and now we are 5.5 points lower.

New Orleans has shot the ball miserably in this series. Brandon Ingram and C.J. McCollum are far better players than they have looked in this series. The Thunder have a good defense, but it isn't as dominant as it has looked in this three game series.

Oklahoma City's offense has gotten rolling in game two and game three, and I think they will continue to score their points here. They have some matchup advantages in this one.

The pace of the games has been about 95 or 96 possessions. These two teams would only need to average 1.08 points per possession to go over this total with 95 possessions as the tempo of the game. 

The Pelicans are likely to regress positively toward their mean in this game. 

Oklahoma City was 3rd in offensive efficiency in the NBA in the regular season. New Orleans was 11th.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Phoenix Suns offense has been terrible in the first two games of this series, but this totals adjustment is too large. The total in the first game was 213.5. We are down 5.5 points.

Phoenix was 10th in the NBA in offensive efficiency during the year. The Suns are likely to get better performances out of Booker and Beal in this game. The Suns defense is only average, and Minnesota can get into the paint against them on a consistent basis. 

The pace of the first two games has been quick enough that even average or slightly below average offensive efficiencies for the teams will equal an over. 

I expect this game to be a bit higher scoring and the total has moved down too much.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* These are two teams who have nothing to play for at this point. In the very late regular season contests between two teams with nothing to play for, the over has been a really good bet in the last 15 years in the NBA. 

In the last three games of the year, when the home team has a win percentage of 50% or less and the road team has a win percentage of 57% or less, the over is hitting at about 57% in the last 15 years.

The Rockets haven't played a game where the combined total fell below 219 in any of their last 7 games. Six of the seven have been 223 points or higher.

There will be a lot of guys sit out, but I expect the two defenses to put very little effort in here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* These teams played last night and the Clippers absolutely smashed the Suns. The final score wasn't indicative of how the game went at all. They coasted after getting a massive early lead.

The Suns have held 6 of their last 9 opponents to 106 points or fewer. The Clippers have scored 108 points or fewer in 6 of their last ten games. The Suns have scored 105 points or fewer in six of their last eight games.

Both teams are battling for position in the Western Conference playoff standings. The Suns really need wins to get up to sixth. The Clippers need to hold fourth.

These late season regular season games between two good teams have been great to under bettors in the last 15 years in the NBA.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* It's Purdue vs. UConn in an epic final for Monday night. The two best teams in the country actually both got to the title this year. 

UConn has been so dominant along their run that they are deserving favorites, but I think Purdue will at least make them work hard here.

The UConn defense has been on another level of late. Some forget that Clingan missed quite a few games this year, and UConn's defense with Clingan is light years better than without Clingan. He is as good of a defensive big man as you will see in college basketball. 

Zach Edey is an excellent offensive player and a solid defensive player too. Edey will have to work harder to get his points here though than he has any other time this year. UConn has Clingan at 7'2 and the long Samson Johnson has been a great shot blocker too. 

UConn is number one in the country in near proximity defense (defending the rim). Purdue is 4th in the nation in defending without fouling. Purdue is also amazing on the defensive glass. 

UConn slowed the game down in a big way against Alabama. A game at just 63 possessions against Alabama is nearly unheard of. Purdue played to a slow pace against NC State as well.

The rims were tight in State Farm Stadium in the Final 4. Both of these offenses are very good, but I think the defenses are underrated too. The pace should be slow.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Clippers host the Cleveland Cavs in a rare early Sunday start in Los Angeles on Sunday afternoon. 

Both of these teams have had a good season up to this point. They are also both fighting for playoff positioning. 

This time of the year in the NBA, there can be some games that mean almost nothing to teams. There are also some games that mean a bunch to both teams. This is an example of a game that means a lot to both teams.

These two both prefer to play at a slow pace. There shouldn't many transition buckets in this contest. 

The Clippers have stepped up their defense in recent weeks, but their offense has been subpar. The Clippers have scored 108 points or fewer in five of their last eight games. They will be without Kawhi Leonard again in this one.

These late season regular season games between two good teams with plenty to play for have trended strongly toward the under in the long run.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Purdue Boilermakers defense hasn't gotten enough credit in recent weeks. Purdue has allowed 68 points or fewer in regulation in six straight games. In four of those six games, they have allowed 0.98 points per possession or fewer. The Boilermakers are top 15 in the country in both defensive rebounding percentage and defending without fouling. 

NC State has actually played at a slower pace in their last few games than they have for the season overall. Burns is fantastic, but I do think Edey and company will make it tougher than average for him in facilitating the offense. 

Purdue's offense is excellent, but they haven't been shooting very well from long range of late. Purdue has benefited from Edey getting to the line a lot, but we have often seen the refs swallow the whistle a bit more in the Final Four and Championship games. That could allow NC State to slow Purdue enough.

This being a football stadium and the basketballs used in the NCAA Tournament being so unique are pluses as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets and LA Clippers both have a lot to play for as far as positioning in the standings heading down the stretch of the regular season. The Western Conference standings are bunched tightly together. The Nuggets are tied with the Timberwolves at the top and they are both just one game ahead of the Thunder. The Clippers have been dropping and are still in danger of dropping out of the top four.

Late season games between two teams with this high of a win percentage have been great to under bettors. In fact, games with a total of 220 or higher with high win percentage teams late in the season are above 60% to the under.

Kawhi Leonard will miss this game and Jamal Murray is a game time decision. I expect both defenses to be highly motivated.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Cavs and Denver Nuggets are both bottom seven in the league in tempo for the season. They are also both top ten in the league in defensive efficiency for the season overall.

Jamal Murray is a big offensive catalyst for the Nuggets. Denver has been struggling on offense without him. In their last two games, Denver has scored 97 and 98 points against the Suns and the Timberwolves.

Murray is listed as questionable for this game, but Michael Malone made it sound like on Saturday that Murray isn't ready to play quite yet and the team wants to play it safe with him.

The Cavs have had some of the lower scoring games in the league this year. 

This is a late season game between two teams with a very good record. These games have been great to under bettors in the last 15 years in the NBA. This is also an early start on Sunday and those have been solid unders in the long run.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* There are 362 teams in Division One college basketball. UConn ranks #1 in offensive efficiency out of those 362 teams. Illinois ranks #2 in offensive efficiency in the country. This should be a really fun contest.

Illinois just faced an Iowa State defense that has been better than UConn through the year on that end of the floor. The Fighting Illini could have put up quite a few more points if they hadn't been awful from the free throw line in that game.

Illinois was fortunate that Iowa State was putting up some terrible shots in that game. I don't think UConn will take those same low quality looks. This is a UConn team that is running some spectacular halfcourt sets, and this Illinois defense can't be trusted. Illinois is just 84th in the nation in defensive efficiency.

Terrence Shannon has arguably been the best player in the country in the last few weeks, at least on the offensive end. Shannon has scored 25 points or more in seven straight games. He should get his again here. 

UConn has been willing to play quicker at times this year, and I think Illinois tries to get in transition a lot here. 

Both teams should be efficient on offense. Both teams are great on the offensive glass as well, so second chances are likely coming in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets have consistently been one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA this year. They are also 10th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They are a great offensive team too, but their games have been lower than many expected because of the improved defense and a slower tempo.

Phoenix plays at about the league average in tempo. They are 13th in defensive efficiency for the year. 

This is a very late season game that means a lot to both teams. There are very strong under angles in the NBA for games between two teams with win percentages above 55% late in the regular season. 

Denver is now in the top spot in the Western Conference standings. The Nuggets are just ahead of Oklahoma City and Minnesota. 

Phoenix is tied for the Kings in 7th/8th, but they are only one game behind the Pelicans in the 5th spot. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Indiana Pacers have been an under machine of late until last night. Indiana actually ranks top ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last ten games. The Pacers lost a wild shootout against the Lakers last night, and I think they will give a better defensive effort here. 

The LA Clippers are 26th in the NBA in tempo in the last ten games. They have made a concerted effort to slow the pace down in recent weeks. The Clippers are off a bad defensive performance in a 121-107 loss to the 76ers.

This is a late season game between two teams with a winning record and with a high total. This has been a very strong system to the under in the last decade in the NBA. This game means plenty to both teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Marquette Golden Eagles are always happy to run. They are 9th in average possession length in the country. Marquette is excellent at causing turnovers and getting out and scoring points in transition. Colorado has been poor at taking care of the basketball, and their transition defense isn't good.

Marquette's offensive numbers are skewed too negative late in the season because Kolek was out. With him in the lineup they are a completely different offense.

Marquette's weakness on defense is getting defensive rebounds and protecting the basket. Lampkin and company for Colorado should be able to get plenty of second chances. 

Both teams are ranked outside the top 150 in transition defense. The pace here should be very quick. I think this total is a few points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Gonzaga Bulldogs offense has been on a whole different level in the last month. Gonzaga is a top four offense in the country in the last month. Ben Gregg has ignited the offense with his ability to stretch a defense. Nolan Hickman has heated up significantly from 3 point range as well. The Bulldogs get consistently solid contributions from Graham Ike on offense too.

Kansas scored 93 in their win over Samford. KJ Adams and Hunter Dickinson have been a nice duo in the post. The Jayhawks have struggled to defend the 3 point line this year, and Gonzaga has been on fire from long range of late.

The tempo here should be key. I expect both teams to run and push the pace. Gonzaga has sped up in key games in the last month. Kansas ranks 55th in average possession length too. A pace in the low 70's should be expected. 

Two good passing teams who want to run. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Utah State Aggies are 39th in the country in offensive efficiency. TCU is 44th in the country in offensive efficiency.

Both of these teams prefer to play quickly. They have been playing quite a few teams in their respective conferences who like to slow the game down, but in this one they'll face another fast paced team.

TCU gets out in transition as often as possible. They are in transition on 17% of their possessions on offense. That's extremely high and is top 10 in the country. TCU is 12th in offensive efficiency in transition. Utah State's transition defense is 223rd in the country. 

Utah State is in transition on 13% of their possessions (above average) and they are third in offensive efficiency in transition. The Aggies are up against a TCU defense that is just 189th in transition defense.

Both teams are good at getting to the free throw line. I would expect TCU to get a lot of second chance points here. Utah State's Osabor should get good looks in the post on offense too. 

Utah State hasn't seen many teams with high pressure defense, and TCU is known for their aggressiveness and willingness to run off steals.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Yale Bulldogs have to know they need to slow the pace down here to have any chance. This is a well coached smart team, so I expect them to work the clock down as much as they possibly can. Yale is 334th in the country in average possession length to begin with, so they are bottom 30 in the country in pace.

Yale also relies heavily on scoring inside the paint. They are up against an Auburn team who ranks 1st in the country in near proximity defense. Johni Broome and his elite shot blocking skills are a large reason for that statistic. Yale is likely to have serious trouble scoring here.

Auburn has two weaknesses on defense. They foul too often and they aren't great on the defensive glass. Yale is near the bottom of teams in the country in trips to the free throw line, and the Bulldogs aren't aggressive on the offensive glass. They are below average in offensive rebounding.

Auburn's offense relies heavily on getting to the free throw line and grabbing offensive boards. Yale is top 15 in the country in defensive rebounding and they are a solid 84th out of 362 teams in defending without fouling. 

The under has done fantastic in double digit spreads in the Round of 64 especially when the total is 140 or higher.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Samford Bulldogs push the pace to the extreme and love to use full court pressure. Bucky Ball from Bucky McMillan is a lot of fun, and it has been very successful. Samford is 6th in the country in average possession length so they are really quick. Samford is 16th in the nation in forced turnover percentage. 

Kansas is 141st in turnover percentage, so I think they will turn it over some and their transition defense has been subpar. Look for Samford to get some run out opportunities here. Kansas is 55th quickest in the country in average possession length. They should be able to get transition opportunities and burn the full court pressure some as well.

Hunter Dickinson is considered probable by beat writers. I think Kansas will score quite a few here even if Dickinson doesn't play, but if he does play there really isn't anyone on Samford's roster that can guard him. Kansas should go high low post and smoke Samford's interior defense.

Samford allowed 98 points to Purdue early in the season. They haven't played another top 75 team this year. Kansas has the talent to score a lot here, and Samford's unique style should get them plenty of points.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Creighton Blue Jays are first in the nation in defending without fouling. They also excel on the defensive glass. They are top 25 in the country in defensive rebounding percentage. Creighton is slightly below average in tempo at #207 in the country.

Akron is 13th in the nation in 3 point field goal percentage defense. That's important against a Creighton team that ranks top 20 in the nation 3 point frequency as a percentage of their points. Akron is 86th at defending without fouling. Akron is also 268th out of 362 in the nation in tempo, so they are pretty slow.

Round of 64 games with a large spread and high seeds vs. low seeds have been good under bets. That is especially true of totals that are average or higher. A total of in the low 140's fits that.

PPG Arena in Pittsburgh hosts this game and this has been a good under arena in the past. It's a spacious arena that has seen a lot of very low scoring games.

Akron should slow the pace down here and I think Creighton's defense will give Akron's offense a lot of trouble with their funnel to the mid range style.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Xavier Musketeers really try to push the pace. They are 34th in the country in overall tempo. They are up against a Georgia team that is 67th quickest in average possession length in the country. This one should be a track meet. 

Xavier's defense was strong early in the season, but it tailed off significantly in the latter part of the season. In 6 of their last 9 games, Xavier allowed 1.13 points per possession or more. They got much worse at defending the basket. 

Georgia struggled to get defensive rebounds, and Xavier should get a lot of second chance opportunities. 

Both offenses had a low turnover percentage and neither defense forces many turnovers. I think the efficiency numbers can be pretty high here.

The two teams both get to the free throw line a lot.

Early smaller postseason tournaments have trended toward the over in the last decade.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Bucks have been a different team under Doc Rivers. Milwaukee has slowed the pace down. Overall, they have improved at least somewhat on defense as well. Milwaukee's offense is only 18th in efficiency in the last 5 games though.

Middleton is expected back for this game for the Bucks. Giannis is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury. Middleton back is a positive, but it might take him some time to get back in the swing of things.

Phoenix is playing at a slightly slower than league average pace. The Suns are a little above average for the year in defensive efficiency.

This is a very early Sunday game. It's a noon local start time. Early Sunday unders have done very well in the NBA in the past 15 years. 

Take the under. 

*3 star Play Under* The Duquesne Dukes have played much better defense down the stretch, and that has led them to their success of late. Duquesne has also slowed the tempo down drastically from what they played at early in the season. The Dukes have allowed 1 point per possession or fewer in 6 of their last 8 games. They have played four of their last six games to a pace of 63 possessions or fewer.

St. Bonaventure is playing slower paced games of late too. They got to just 61 possessions against La Salle in their first tournament game and Thursday's double OT win over Loyola was just 78 possessions in 2 overtimes.

The first game between these two was 54-50, so they are more than capable of a rock fight. This one is win or go home.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Marist Red Foxes goal is definitely to slow the game down and make it an ugly low scoring contest. They did this in a 58-55 win over Fairfield two weeks ago. 

Fairfield puts up a lot of 3 point jumpers. In a tough shooting venue that can be dangerous. Marist is the number one 3 point defense in the conference too. On offense, Marist is 320th in offensive efficiency in the country. 

Neither team gets to the free throw line very much on average.

Both teams had low scoring contests in their first games in this tournament.

Boardwalk Hall is 40-22 to the under now. This gym has been a huge under gym. The old large building has difficult shooting backdrops and that has led to some terrible shooting percentages in this tournament. 

*4 Star Play Under* Quinnipiac and St. Peter's meet in the MAAC semifinals. These two teams played higher scoring games in the regular season, but this is a very high total for a St. Peter's game. This game also means a whole lot more than their first two games did. Only two more wins and these teams could be in the NCAA Tournament.

Boardwalk Hall is 40-22 to the under now. This gym has been a huge under gym. The old large building has difficult shooting backdrops and that has led to some terrible shooting percentages in this tournament. 

I think this one slows down and the offensive efficiencies are lower.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Rider and St. Peter's meet in a MAAC Conference Tournament game on Thursday night. 

This is the first game of the tournament for both of these teams. These two teams played twice in the regular season and the two games finished with 117 and 119 points. 

St. Peter's is among the best in the country at slowing a game down. They are also atrocious on offense and great on defense. St. Peter's is 348th in the country in effective field goal percentage offense. They are 50th on defense.

Rider protects the basket very well, and St. Peter's hasn't been able to count on the outside shot.

Boardwalk Hall has been great to under bettors. The under is 36-23 in games played here and the margins have been significant.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Providence Friars beat Georgetown on Wednesday and will take on the Creighton Blue Jays at Madison Square Garden on Thursday night. 

The regular season meetings between these two were 91-87 (OT) and 69-60. Shot Quality believes based on the quality of shots taken the OT game should have finished only 152 points after overtime. The other game they believe should have finished with 137 points.

Creighton does a great job defensively taking away the 3 point shot and the shot at the basket. They are funneling the opposition into taking mid range jumpers. The Blue Jays are first in the nation at defending without fouling.

Providence is 17th in defensive efficiency. They are top 40 in the nation at defending without fouling.

Madison Square Garden saw all 3 games go under the total yesterday. The under is about 57.5% at MSG in CBB games in the past decade. It's a large sample size as well. This is a good under venue.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Central Michigan Chippewas have really been good on defense of late. Central Michigan gave up just 0.98 points per possession inside the MAC. They were first ranked in overall defensive efficiency. They were first in two point defense and second in three point defense in the conference. On offense, the Chippewas were 10th in offensive efficiency and 11th in effective field goal percentage offense. They figured out they have to win games ugly, and they really slowed down their pace late in the season. 

Bowling Green has largely played to the pace of their opponent during this season.

The Falcons and Chippewas played two games in the regular season. Both of them went into overtime. The two games were 124 and 112 at the end of regulation. Even with overtime the one finished at 122 points. The other went into double overtime and finished with 153 points.

This one is played at the Cleveland Cavaliers arena- Rocket Mortgage in Cleveland. Unders in this arena have hit 56.3% of the time.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The La Salle Explorers have won five of their last seven games. La Salle went much of the season struggling with no identity, but the Explorers have found a little bit of something of late. I still don't think this is a good team on the whole, but they are slowing the game down and playing much better defense than they were. 

La Salle averaged 66.8 possessions per game for the season, but in 4 of their last 5 games they have played to a pace of 63 possessions or slower. The Explorers have also allowed 1.02 points per possession or fewer in four of their last five games. 

St. Bonaventure is 271st in overall pace. They aren't likely to push the tempo here. The Bonnies defend the 3 point shot pretty well, and La Salle takes a bunch of shots from long range. 

A neutral site where the games were very low scoring on day one in this tournament. A win or go home game with a slow projected pace. I think this total is too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Pioneers have been a high scoring team all. It makes sense that a total would be set high in a game between them and South Dakota State. 

I still think the circumstances surrounding this game make this under have value.

This is a massive game where the winner will go to the NCAA Tournament. The stakes are far higher than the regular season meetings between these two. Final games in conference tournaments have been very good under bets in the last decade. That has been especially true when it is smaller college matchups. A win in this game is the only chance these teams have of getting to the NCAA Tournament.

Denver's star scorer Tommy Bruner is Mr. Everything for this team, but he is playing through an injury. He has 8 turnovers in two games in the Summit League Tournament.

Denver and South Dakota State have both played at a far slower pace in their games in this tournament than they did against their same opponents in the regular season. I think the pace slows down in this matchup too.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Iona Gaels are without Greg Gordon, who was their top offensive player before he left the team a few weeks. Iona's offensive efficiency numbers have dipped quite a bit without Gordon. 

Manhattan has been terrible offensively all season. They are 341st in the nation in offensive efficiency. The Jaspers almost never get to the line, and one thing they do well on defense is defend without fouling.

This game is played at Boardwalk  Hall in Atlantic City. A little over 60% of games played here have gone under the closing total. This is a tough gym for shooters.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Orleans Pelicans are much better on defense than most believe. They are a team that is middle of the pack in tempo in the NBA. 

Atlanta is without Trae Young here. Without Young, Atlanta is a completely different team without Young. They are better defensively, and they are far worse on offense. Additionally, Atlanta is playing at a much slower pace. In Atlanta's last seven games (the games without Young) they are 23rd in the NBA in tempo. In those seven games, Atlanta is third in the NBA in defensive efficiency too. 

I think this total is too high given the situation for Atlanta and the underrated nature of the Pelicans defense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UNC Wilmington Seahawks and Towson Tigers meet in a huge CAA quarterfinal matchup in Washington DC. 

Both of these teams play at a very slow pace. The two games between them in the regular season were 59 possessions and 62 possessions. That second game that was 62 possessions was a foul fest late to push the scoring up and the possessions up as well. 

Towson turns the ball over too much and isn't a good shooting team. UNC Wilmington has a great player in White, but they lean too much on him.

This is a gym where the under has done amazing in the last few years. There have been some ugly shooting performances. With the pace at a very slow rate, unless the refs get way too involved here I see this one staying low scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Francisco Dons beat the Portland Pilots badly in both regular season meetings. The first game flew over this total. The second game barely stayed under despite a pace of 79 possessions (extremely quick). The shooting numbers in that game were far lower than normal.

Shot Quality, an advanced analytical site, believes both games in the regular season should have topped this posted total by more than 10 points. 

Portland is one of the worst defenses in the country. The Pilots have no answer to the Dons half court offense. San Francisco has picked up their pace through the year. Portland can't stall as much when playing from behind.

Orleans Arena has been a good over gym with 55% of games going over in a large sample.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Missouri Tigers have just been atrocious down the stretch, and it has mainly been their defense that has been awful. Missouri has allowed an average of 89 points per game in their last four games. They are dead last in the SEC in defensive rebounding percentage and defending without fouling during conference play. 

LSU is 52nd in the nation in FTA/FGA on the season. They have exploded for very high point totals several times this year. Their defense has put teams on the line quite a bit, and Missouri does shoot 80.5% from the free throw line in conference play.

This is a final regular season game that means little to either team in my opinion. The final games of the year between two mediocre or poor teams have trended strongly toward the over in the last decade or so.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Stony Brook Seawolves and Northeastern Huskies played twice during the regular season and the final totals in those games were 114 and 115 points. 

Northeastern plays at a very slow pace. They are 328th in average possession length in the country. The Huskies did miss some players at times during the year, but this offense is only 11th in the CAA in efficiency. 

Stony Brook is 215th in average possession length, so they shouldn't be pushing the pace either. 

This is a win or go home game and is being played in gym where the under has done extremely well.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Houston has the number one ranked defense in the country, and it hasn't been very close. They contest every shot and are very good at getting back on defense. 

Kansas torched this elite defense in the first half of their first meeting. I don't think Houston will let that happen again. Houston is giving up just 0.83 points per possession in their Big 12 home games. They come home here and I expect Sampson's group to be much better on defense.

Kansas is much more efficient on defense than offense. The Jayhawks have gotten much better in half court defense through the season.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors host the Le Moyne Dolphins in a NEC Tournament game on Saturday afternoon. These two teams played twice in the regular season. The final totals in those games were 128 and 116 points. Shot Quality, an advanced analytical site, said those final totals should have been 131 and 124 based on the quality of shots taken. All numbers were solidly below this total.

This is a win or go home game and that typically slows the pace down some. These two teams are first and second in the league in defensive efficiency in the last six games. I think the offenses will have a tough time finding open looks.

Merrimack's defensive weakness is getting defensive rebounds, but Le Moyne is poor on the offensive boards. Le Moyne has sometimes struggled on defense against tall frontcourts, but Merrimack doesn't have too much height.

I think we'll see a third game between these two stay under the total.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The San Diego State Aztecs have been scuffling on offense of late. Their season average is 1.14 points per possession on offense, but in six of their last seven games they have put up 1.06 points per possession or fewer. Their defense has stepped up at the same time though. San Diego State has allowed 0.99 points per possession or fewer in five of their last seven games. They have also slowed their tempo a bit of late.

Boise State is second slowest in the Mountain West in average possession length. The Broncos are first in the nation in defensive rebounding. San Diego State should have a lot more trouble getting second chance points than they normally do. 

The last six games between these two teams have finished at these combined totals:

79 points, 115 points, 105 points, 124 points, 126 points, and 133 points. The game earlier this year that finished at 133 points had quite a bit of fouling late in the game too.

A late regular season game that means a bunch to both teams. I think the defenses have the upper hand.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Tyson Acuff is the eighth leading scorer in the nation. Acuff has missed the last two games for Eastern Michigan. This is a relatively quick turnaround with them playing on Friday here after their Tuesday contest where he was out with an ankle injury. Acuff is questionable here. I expect him to either miss the game or be far less than 100%.

Central Michigan's defense has been quietly dominating, especially on their home court. They have given up only 0.978 points per possession at home in conference play. They have allowed 63 points or fewer in 6 of their last 7 home games. 

Eastern Michigan is 325th in offensive efficiency in the country, and most of those numbers are with a healthy Acuff. Central Michigan is 320th in the nation in offensive efficiency too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Morehead State Eagles were the best defense in the OVC this year. They had a brief period in the middle of the season where they struggled, but in their last three games the best defense has showed up again. In the last three contests, Morehead State held all 3 opponents to 0.88 points per possession or fewer. 

SIU Edwardsville won over Morehead State 61-48 at home earlier this year. That was a slugfest where the tempo was very slow. SIU Edwardsville toyed with running late in the regular season, but they played very slowly yesterday in their win against E Illinois. I think they slow it down again here. Morehead State is a bottom ten team in the country in tempo, so they should be happy to move slowly too.

This game is at Ford Center in Evansville. This is a large 11,000 seat arena. Shooters have had a hard time adjusting to this. The under is 25-18 in OVC Tournament games here. The average margin toward the under is an impressive 4.35 points. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* These are two teams who prefer to play at a slow tempo. 

The two regular season games between these two finished at 145 points and 112 points. Shot Quality, an advanced analytical site that measures the quality of shots taken, believes those two games should have finished with 131 and 120 points based on the quality of shots taken.

This is win or go home and that changes the way teams play quite a bit.

Arch Madness in the MVC is played at Enterprise Center in St. Louis. This is a huge hockey arena. These teams aren't accustomed to playing huge arenas like this and we have seen a bunch of bad shooting performances from teams in this tournament. The under is a whopping 91-50 in the last 141 MVC Conference Tournament games. That's a long term 64.5% angle.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Western Illinois Leathernecks have a great defense for what Tennessee State likes to do. The Tigers want to attack the basket early and often. Western Illinois has an elite shot blocker in Cisse in the paint lurking at all times. Western Illinois ranks top five in the nation in defense against shots attacking the rim. 

Western Illinois offensively settles for far too many mid range jumpers. They have gone through long scoring droughts throughout the season. 

Tenn State relies on getting to the line a lot, but Western Illinois has been excellent this year at defending without fouling.

This game is at Ford Center in Evansville. This is a large 11,000 seat arena. Shooters have had a hard time adjusting to this. The under is 25-18 in OVC Tournament games here. The average margin toward the under is an impressive 4.35 points. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri Valley Conference Tournament tips off Thursday afternoon with Murray State and Missouri State. 

The two regular season meetings were a total of 154 and 130 points. Shot Quality, an advanced analytical site, believes based on the quality of shots taken those games should have finished with 134 and 133 points. 

This is win or go home and that changes the way teams play quite a bit.

Arch Madness in the MVC is played at Enterprise Center in St. Louis. This is a huge hockey arena. These teams aren't accustomed to playing huge arenas like this and we have seen a bunch of bad shooting performances from teams in this tournament. The under is a whopping 91-50 in the last 141 MVC Conference Tournament games. That's a long term 64.5% angle.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Le Moyne Dolphins have really put together an ultra impressive defensive run at the end of the season. Le Moyne has allowed 0.97 points per possession or fewer in six of their last seven games. In four of those games, they have allowed less than 0.90 points per possession. That's some excellent defense and the trend lines are all pointing upward for their defensive performance.

Fairleigh Dickinson plays very quickly, but they are inefficient on offense. They scored just 63 and 68 points in their games against Le Moyne this year. Those two games in the regular season both stayed well under this posted total.

This is a win or go home game. I think the pace slows down just a bit here. Fairleigh Dickinson relies on free throws to score quite a bit on offense, and Le Moyne is excellent at defending without fouling. Le Moyne is 349th in the country in FTA/FGA on offense too, so there shouldn't be too many free throws in general in this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boise State Broncos host the Nevada Wolf Pack on Tuesday night in this key Mountain West game. Both of these teams have a lot to play for in this one. 

Boise State is tied at the top of the Mountain West Conference with Utah State. Nevada is tied with San Diego State and UNLV one game back. 

Boise State is second slowest in the Mountain West in average possession length. The Broncos are also 31st in defensive efficiency. They are elite at defensive rebounding. In the first meeting between these two teams, Nevada got just two offensive rebounds. 

Nevada is 38th in the nation in defensive efficiency. On offense, Nevada has been a little too reliant on getting to the line. Leon Rice and his Boise State teams are usually solid at defending without fouling.

Very late season games where both teams have a good winning percentage and there is a lot on the line have trended under in the long term.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* I admit that betting a Queens under isn't comfortable. Queens is a fast paced team who has had a bunch of high scoring games. This is a very high total though and I think it is too high.

Stetson has been fantastic at slowing the pace down against Queens though. In three games against Queens in the last two season, the final totals have been 136, 150, and 158 points. 

Also, Queens has slowed their pace down and been an under team in the A Sun Tournament games the last couple years. They have had all their three conference tournament games go more than 15 points under the total. Their pace has slowed down quite a bit in those win or go home tournament contests.

Stetson is the best in the league at not fouling and Queens typically needs to get to the line to be efficient on offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The first meeting between these two teams hit 167 total points. UMBC shot it very well from 3, and Binghamton dominated the offensive glass to stay close in that one.

Binghamton should get a lot of second chance points again here. UMBC is a bottom 30 team in the country in second chance conversion percentage allowed. 

UMBC puts up a lot of shots from long range, and they got a bunch of open looks against Binghamton before. They should get those again. UMBC has scored 79 points or more in 7 of their last 9 games. They have hit 86 points or more in four of those games.

UMBC is second in the nation in average possession length. They are favored here, and I think they can push the pace. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Bucks are clearly playing differently with Doc Rivers as their head coach. They have slowed the pace down and they have been playing much better defense.

Milwaukee ranks 26th in the NBA in pace in the last five contests. The LA Clippers rank just 21st, so they are pretty slow paced as well.

The Bucks are first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last five games. The Clippers are 13th. 

Milwaukee's games were totaled extremely high with Coach Griffin, but Rivers and the Bucks are playing differently. 

The Clippers are without Russell Westbrook and they could be fatigued here after playing on Sunday as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UIC Flames and Missouri State Bears meet in their regular season finale here. 

Missouri State has had much higher scoring games at the end of the regular season. The Bears have seen five straight games reach at least 148 total points. 

UIC has seen three straight games hit 161 points or higher in regulation. The Flames have been shooting the ball better from three point range. 

In four of Missouri State's last five games, their opponent has averaged at least 1.18 points per possession. 

UIC has seen opponents average 1.12 points per possession or higher in four of their last five games. 

It's a late season game where neither team has much to play for. These have gone over the total a lot in the last decade or so, and the MVC is the conference where the over has done the best in the last month of the year when it is two subpar teams squaring off.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Greg Gordon chose to leave the Iona program in late February for personal reasons. The team has played three games without their key offensive piece. They clearly miss him quite a bit. In the four total games this year that Gordon hasn't played Iona has scored 61 against lowly St. Francis, 75 against Rider, 65 against Mt. St. Mary's, and 64 against Quinnipiac. 

This will be the best defense Iona has seen without Gordon by a wide margin. Marist is easily first in the MAAC in defensive efficiency. They are allowing opponents to shoot just 31% from 3 point range, and Iona puts up a lot of long range jumpers.

Marist has locked up a bunch of teams this year, especially when playing on their home floor. The Red Foxes are just 320th in the country in offensive efficiency though.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Diego Toreros and Pacific Tigers meet here in a game that really doesn't mean anything to either team. These games very late in the regular season where both teams have nothing to play for have trended strongly toward the over in the last 15 years or so in college basketball.

San Diego is relentless in pushing the pace. Pacific is easily the worst defense in the league. 

Pacific does get to the free throw line quite a bit, and San Diego is a team that fouls at a high rate. 

I would expect a lot of open looks in this game. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* This is a game where many of the top scoring options are going to be unavailable. UT Rio Grande Valley is playing without 3 of their original 5 starters on offense. Their offensive efficiency numbers have dipped significantly. They have scored 59 points or fewer in three straight games. They also scored just 54 points in their first meeting with Cal Baptist. 

Cal Baptist is without star Dominique Daniels. This is a team that has already had a hard time creating on offense, and without him that weakness is even more apparent.

UT Rio Grande Valley relies extremely heavily on getting to the line on offense, and Cal Baptist is best in the league at defending without fouling. 

Cal Baptist should control the pace as the better team, and they want to play slowly.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Kansas State has been better on offense in their last couple games, but I don't trust them to consistently be good on offense. We've seen this Wildcats team take far too many contested jump shots this season. 

Cincinnati is one of the weakest offenses in the Big 12. The Bearcats have been very good on defense though. 

The only edge I see offensively for the teams is some offensive rebounds. Still, I expect a pretty slow pace and poor overall efficiency. This total has bumped up too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers beat the FIU Panthers 105-91 in the first meeting between these two. The pace of that game was a blistering 85 possessions. Both of these teams were using full court pressure and pushing the tempo at every opportunity. 

FIU has been slowed down by some teams who play a slower tempo, but Western Kentucky certainly doesn't want to slow anyone down. Western Kentucky is first in the nation in overall tempo. FIU is 49th in tempo. This should once again be a track meet.

Neither of these teams has been good at taking care of the ball, but both defenses look to get quick steals and score in transition. These two teams are poor in transition defense. There should be a lot of run out opportunities here.

FIU is 359th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense.

I had this one several points higher. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The VCU Rams and Richmond Spiders don't like each other a bit. This is an intracity rivalry game. Both of these teams are clearly better on defense than offense. I expect a max effort from both defenses in this one. 

These are two really good defensive rebounding teams. Second chance points should be tough to come by in this one. 

VCU has racked up points at the line this year, but Richmond has been excellent at defending without fouling.

The stakes are high here and I like the defenses to take care of business.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Loyola Maryland Greyhounds are down two of their best offensive players. This team has struggled offensively all year, but they are really up against it now. Army has been one of the better defenses in the Patriot League. 

Army and Loyola are both most comfortable playing at a very slow pace. The first game between these two was played ultra slow, but both teams shot the ball much better than they normally do. The game hit 136 points total, but Shot Quality (advanced analytics) graded it as a 110 point expected total points based on the shots taken in the game.

Army has scored 59 points or less in four straight games. Loyola just put up 46 points in their last game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* North Carolina A&T is a completely different team with Landon Glasper in the lineup. Glasper is a very quick guard who likes to push the pace. Without him, NC A&T played much slower and their offensive stats for the season are skewed lower because he missed quite a bit of time. 

Campbell has picked up their pace quite a bit during the season this year. The Fighting Camels have seen 7 of their last 8 games get over this total. They have excellent guards who have a clear advantage here on offense.

A last game between two teams who have very little to play for. This is an angle that has been very good to over bettors at the end of the regular season. 

*3 Star Play Under* It's a fight for important seeding in the CAA Tournament here. The final game of the regular season for both teams. Both teams will be highly motivated in this finale. 

The first game between these two played to an extremely slow pace of 58 possessions. That game featured hot shooting and it still only finished at 131 points. Shot Quality, an advanced analytical site, had the expected score at 115 points based on the quality of shots taken.

Towson is very slow paced, and UNC Wilmington has typically played to that slow pace with them in recent meetings. 

UNC Wilmington's White is a star, but Towson has better defenders to put on him than most teams do.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Southern Indiana Screamin' Eagles have been pushing the pace quite a bit more late in the season. Southern Indiana is first in the OVC in FTA/FGA on offense, and they are last in FTA/FGA allowed on defense. Southern Indiana games are foul fests consistently. When is that even more true? In their home games. Southern Indiana's free throw rate and free throw rate allowed are much higher in their home games. 

Lindenwood isn't good at many things, but they are pretty good at getting to the line (3rd in FTA/FGA in the OVC) and shooting free throws. They should do some damage at the line as well. Their defense has been awful of late. 

Southern Indiana has played 9 of their last 11 games over this total. The two that went under this total were 141 and 142 points.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Longwood Lancers lost to the Gardner Webb Runnin' Bulldogs earlier this year by a score of 76-64 earlier this year. There is one stat that stands out as ridiculous from that first game. Gardner Webb went 12/13 from the 3 point line in that win! The Bulldogs are just 33.8% from the 3 point line as a team for the season overall. We certainly can't expect them to knock down everything from long range again.

Longwood shoots a lot of shots from mid range and near proximity. They don't shoot many 3 point jumpers. Gardner Webb is first in the conference in 2 point field goal percentage defense. That is a positive for the under in this one.

The first game stayed well under even with one team going 12/13 from 3. These teams have a history of playing lower scoring games against each other. 

I think this number is set too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Wright State Raiders stand out as a team who is elite at getting great shots near the hoop. Wright State is second in the nation in field goal percentage. Wright State is 12th in the nation in near proximity (layups, tip ins, and dunks) offense. They are up against a Fort Wayne team that has been atrocious at defending near the hoop. They are 356th at near proximity defense. Fort Wayne lacks shot blockers. Wright State put up 106 points in a 106-98 win at Fort Wayne earlier this year. Wright State has scored 92 points or more in four of their last five games. I think they'll do it again in this one.

Fort Wayne is good from 3 point range. They are shooting 36.8% from long distance in the conference. Wright State's defense is giving up 38.5% from 3 point range. The Raiders are poor in transition defense, and Fort Wayne excels at getting steals and scoring in transition off those steals. 

The first game was played at a pace of 83 possessions. This one won't be that fast, but I expect a very quick tempo. It's a high total, but I don't think it is high enough.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The High Point Panthers and Winthrop Eagles met earlier this year and that one finished 83-81. There were 59 free throws taken in that game. Normally that might sound abnormal, but with these two offenses that has been the norm. Winthrop is first in the country in FTA/FGA and High Point is 7th. Additionally, these two teams both have struggled to defend without fouling. 

High Point is 10th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage. They are 30th in the nation in offensive efficiency. They are averaging 1.19 points per possession in the Big South. 

Winthrop has been significantly better on offense away from home in Big South action than they have been at home. The Eagles have played their last two road games to 158 and 154 points even against slower teams in Longwood and Radford.

The offenses should have a clear advantage here, and the trips to the free throw line should help a bunch.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The BYU Cougars were playing pretty good defense in the non-conference portion of their schedule, but it has all completely fallen apart in the Big 12. BYU is giving up 1.11 points per possession in the Big 12. In their last three road games they have allowed 82 against Oklahoma, 93 points at Oklahoma State, and 84 points at Kansas State. None of those teams are all that good on offense.

BYU is still very good on offense. Kansas is shorthanded with McCullar injured and he is one of the better defenders on the team. BYU is 9th in the nation in offensive efficiency. They play at a very quick pace too. 

Kansas is first in the Big 12 in average possession length, and I think they'll be happy to run in this game. The Jayhawks have a clear matchup advantage with Hunter Dickinson here. I don't think BYU has anyone good enough defensively in the frontcourt to slow him down.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights defense has been elite at home. Rutgers is giving up just 0.863 points per possession at home in Big Ten play. The Scarlet Knights have a great shot blocker down low and multiple good guards who do a good job keeping the ball in front of them. 

Maryland is 13th in the Big Ten in offensive efficiency. The Terrapins rely far too much on one guy in Jahmir Young. He is a tremendous player, but the lack of a consistent second option really slows down this offense. 

Maryland is sixth in the nation in defensive efficiency. Rutgers is third in the nation in defensive efficiency. These two played earlier this month and it was 56-53. Recent higher scoring games for these teams has propped up this total, but they are back to playing another defensive minded foe here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* San Francisco has been playing really quick in conference play. The Dons have been an offensive machine on their home floor, and they have gotten into a bunch of shootouts. 

Pepperdine is a very weak defensive team. The Waves are allowing opponents in the WCC to shoot better than 40% from 3 point range. San Francisco is more than capable of torching the nets here. 

Pepperdine should get to the line a good amount against a San Francisco team that fouls quite a bit. The Waves have several good scorers in Ajayi, Porter, and Mallette. 

Pepperdine has scored 91 and 89 points in their last two games. San Francisco has put up 90 points or more several times at home this year.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Bradley Braves have been excellent offensively at home the last couple seasons. Bradley is great on the offensive glass, and they are shooting 39% from 3 point range. Bradley does foul too much, and that has allowed opponents to stay closer at times. Illinois State is shooting 73% from the FT line in conference.

Freshman Johnny Kinzinger has been a huge boost to the Illinois State offense since he joined the starting lineup a few games ago. He's a great outside shooter. Bradley gives up a lot of open 3's.

The first game between these two saw just 13 total points from the free throw line. This one should have more.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Davidson Wildcats offense is really a mess without star big man David Skogman. Skogman hit 5 three pointers and scored 24 points in Davidson's OT loss to Richmond earlier this year. Davidson has picked up their defense nicely, but the offense is really struggling.

Richmond is the best defense in the A10. The Spiders are 18th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. They are excellent at getting defensive boards and defending without fouling. 

Both teams prefer to play a slow pace and I expect this to be played in the halfcourt.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* SIU Edwardsville was playing slower for much of this season, but they appear to have reverted back to a faster pace. They have clearly been playing quicker here near the end of the season. SIU Edwardsville has been in six straight games with a minimum of 147 total points scored. All of those games except for one hit a minimum of 151 points. 

Tennessee State fouls at a very high rate. SIU Edwardsville is shooting nearly 77% from the FT line in conference. TN State is better offensively at home, and they should get open looks here too.

Neither of these teams has much of anything to play for here late in the regular season- these games have trended to the over in the past decade in college hoops.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The North Dakota State Bison have typically been a good defensive team. They have been one of the few good defensive teams in the Summit League in the past decade. They started this season playing bad defense, but they have turned it around a lot in recent weeks. 

North Dakota State just held St. Thomas to 50 points last game. They held Oral Roberts to 60 points recently. They held North Dakota to 60 points early this month.

North Dakota isn't a good outside shooting team, and they prefer to play at a slow pace. This team gets a lot of offensive rebounds, but North Dakota State is easily first in the league in defensive rebounding percentage.

The first game between these two was 60-58 and played to a very slow pace of just 62 possessions. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Vermont has played 10 straight games under this total. The Catamounts are the better team here, and they have consistently been able to get games to be played at their tempo instead of the pace that their opponents want to have. 

Albany is without two of their key players (Jackson and Beagle) due to injury. The Great Danes offense doesn't pack the same punch right now. Albany is elite on defense at defending the 3 point line. Vermont isn't good at getting the ball inside and the Catamounts don't get many offensive rebounds. 

Albany relies on second chance points, but Vermont is fifth in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage. Vermont has been elite for years at defending without fouling and giving teams only one chance. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Fairleigh Dickinson is top ten in the nation in tempo. They are all about pushing the pace, and Sacred Heart is now healthy and pushing the tempo whenever they can as well. 

The last four games between these two teams have finished with 157 points, 177 points, 180 points, and 184 points. These teams get into track meet type games against each other consistently. 

Both of these teams are excellent at getting quick steals and scores, and both defenses foul far too much. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The North Carolina A&T Aggies have been without their star Landon Glasper for the last seven games. All seven of those games without Glasper have stayed under this total. Only two of those games have even topped 130 points.

Things were bad without Glasper, but now A&T is without him and two other starters. Coach Monte Ross said the team is "hoping for a miracle cure" for them to be ready for the conference tournament. Based on that I would expect them all to miss this game. 

NC A&T has clearly decided to stall and try to make it a lower scoring low possession game without their scorers. I can't blame them.

Stony Brook plays at a slightly below average pace. North Carolina A&T's defense is weakest in the paint, but Stony Brook settles for 3's and mid range jumpers at a high rate. Stony Brook defends without fouling, and A&T has relied on getting to the line to score.

I think this total is too high based on the circumstances. Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Pepperdine won 93-78 in the first meeting between these two teams. Pacific has been better at home on the offensive end. Pepperdine has strangely been far better on offense on the road, but their defense has been worse on the road. The Waves have had some very high scoring games away from home.

These two teams are both bottom ten in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. Both offenses have done a good job not turning the ball over on offense. They have also both gotten to the free throw line at a pretty high rate.

Subpar teams matching up against each other late in the regular season have trended pretty strongly to the over in the last 15 or 20 years in college hoops. This one certainly fits.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Navy Midshipmen defense has been atrocious on the road this year. In the Patriot League, Navy is allowing a whopping 1.242 points per possession. They have allowed at least 69 points in every conference road game they have played. 

Loyola Maryland is 316th in the nation in defensive efficiency. This is a team that has looked quite a bit better on offense their last couple games though.

These are the number one and number two offensive rebounding teams in the league. Navy is forcing a lot of turnovers, and they should get quick points off those steals. They are 89th in the country in quick points on breakaway steals. Loyola is 323rd in the country at allowing those.

This is a low total, and I think it is a few points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is a low total, but for an Army game this is actually set higher than they are accustomed to. Lehigh does play pretty quickly, but Army slowed the pace down in a 68-57 win over Lehigh on the road recently. I think the Army team is likely to control the pace again here.

Army's last ten games have all stayed under this total in regulation. One of those ten finished at 120 after overtime. Army has multiple very good shot blockers, but they don't foul at a high rate. 

Lehigh is a mediocre defense, but Army is 354th out of 362 in the country in offensive efficiency. 

These teams are both top 50 in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Cougars are ranked number one in defensive efficiency in the country. Iowa State is ranked third in the country in defensive efficiency. This is a meeting of two elite defenses. The first game between these two was 57-53 earlier this season. 

Both teams prefer to play at a slow pace, and I think this will be a 63 possession type game here. 

Both of these teams force a ton of turnovers, but these two are both great in transition defense. I think that means plenty of turnovers, but not many runouts for easy scores. 

The line has bumped up several points today, and with this move I have to go with the under.

The total in the first game was 129.5. It sailed below the total. This now has a higher total.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The first meeting between these two teams finished 58-55 in overtime. The game was 45-45 after regulation. We had the under in that one, and I'm going to take the under again here. I'm certainly not going to expect that low scoring of a game here. Still, the way that first game was low scoring encourages me to take the under again here. That first game was filled with low quality mid range jumpers.

Coppin State is 361st in the nation (out of 362) in offensive efficiency. Maryland Eastern Shore is 360th. These two teams are routinely scoring 0.85 points per possession or so. 

Both teams force a lot of turnovers, and both offenses turn the ball over a lot. Neither team has been good at taking advantage of those turnovers and scoring transition though. 

A sloppy game is what I expect again here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are second in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are behind Houston and just ahead of Iowa State. Rutgers has won four straight games coming into this one, and it has been on the shoulders of the defense behind the best it has been all year. 

Rutgers has scored 63 points or fewer in five of their last seven games. The Scarlet Knights offense still has problems. They are averaging just 0.926 points per possession in Big Ten play.

Minnesota has been absolute money in the bank ATS this year. Their defense is much improved from last year. The Golden Gophers do try to slow the game down. They have been good defensively at home. In their last three home games they have allowed 61 points (Wisconsin), 66 points (61 in regulation- NW), and 56 points (Michigan State).

The best defense in the Big Ten and a game that should play in the mid 60's in tempo.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Morehead State Eagles will likely be without second leading scorer Jordan Lathon for this game. He has missed the last three games due to an injury. Morehead State ranks first in the OVC in defensive efficiency. Morehead State's offense has been efficient at home, but they have only been ok on offense on the road. Their splits are pretty significant.

UT Martin has improved quite a bit on defense this year. The Skyhawks are 97th in effective field goal percentage defense. They are great at defending without fouling. They also have been very good at defending the 3 point line, and Morehead State takes a lot of shots from long distance. 

The first game was played to just 63 possessions. KenPom has this pace projection at 69 possessions, but I think that is too fast.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UCF Knights are allowing just 0.881 points per possession at home this year. That is 6th best in the country. They are third in the nation in blocked shots percentage. Cincinnati is shooting 30.2% from 3 point range, and the Bearcats try to work it inside as much as possible. That makes UCF and their big front line of shot blockers a tough matchup for the Cincinnati offense.

UCF is last in the Big 12 in effective field goal percentage offense. This offense doesn't have good spacing, and they end up taking far too many contested mid range jumpers. If they aren't getting to the line or getting offensive rebounds, they can really go through long scoring droughts. Cincinnati is 25th in defensive rebounding percentage in the country. The Bearcats are 62nd in the nation at defending without fouling.

The first game between these two was just 125 points total and played at a very slow pace of 63 possessions. I think this total is set too high once again.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas State Bobcats are 13th in the Sun Belt in offensive efficiency. They don't have good outside shooters, and they rely on getting to the basket about as much as any team in the country. Southern Miss has great interior defense. The Golden Eagles are 30th in the nation in blocked shots percentage. Southern Miss is also third in the conference at defending without fouling.

Texas State is excellent on the defensive glass, and this Bobcats team has been solid overall on defense for several years in a row. Texas State is well known for slowing the tempo down. They slowed it down in their 60-55 win over Southern Miss a couple weeks ago. They should do it again here.

Southern Miss is shorthanded right now, and the Golden Eagles were just held to 59 points by lowly UL Monroe in their last game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Vermont Catamounts have the best defense in the American East conference. Vermont is also excellent at controlling the pace of the game. They are the second slowest paced team in the league. They have slowed down both Albany and UMBC who ultra fast paced teams. 

Vermont grabs defensive rebounds at the best rate of anyone in the league. They defend without fouling better than anyone else. 

New Hampshire is elite when it comes to 3 point defense. They like to push the pace on offense, but they are inefficient on offense. I expect them to have a hard time getting open looks against this Vermont defense. 

New Hampshire is second in the league at defending without fouling. 

A slower pace and not many free throws should help a lot with an under. I had this number a good amount lower than this. 

Take the under. 

*This number has moved down some as the market adjusts here. I would advocate a 4 star rated play at 138.5 or higher and a 3 star play at anything below that. Thanks and good luck* 

*3 Star Play Under* The East Carolina Pirates have fully embraced their slower tempo as the season has moved along. This team is far better when they are controlling the pace and trying to win with winning the turnover battle and defending without fouling.

East Carolina played six straight games under this total before their last game against UTSA went way over. UTSA is an over team that runs at every chance. 

Wichita State has played to the pace of their opponent for much of the season. The Shockers played to the pace of East Carolina in the first meeting. That was a 54-52 final. I'm certainly not expecting a game that low scoring here, but I do think a total in the upper 130's is too high. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Ty Berry has been a really key piece to the puzzle for Northwestern this year. Berry shot over 43% from 3 point range and had been playing very well. He was hurt recently and Coach Collins announced he would miss the rest of the season. Northwestern ranks in the bottom 25 in bench minutes. They lack the depth in the backcourt to replace this key of a player. I think their offense will suffer quite a bit. They struggled against Penn State and play a much better defense here.

Rutgers is allowing 0.855 points per possession at home in conference play. The Scarlet Knights are second in the country in defensive efficiency (behind only Houston). This team has an elite shot blocker in Omoruyi, and they force quite a few steals as well. On offense, Rutgers is averaging just 0.922 points per possession in Big Ten play.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Maryland Terrapins have played 13 games in Big Ten play. All 13 of those games has been under the total after regulation. Maryland plays at a slow pace, and they are far better on defense than offense.

The strength of Maryland's defense is their ability to stop opponents from getting to the basket. Iowa in past years has been an outside shooting team, but this year the Hawkeyes are very heavy on getting to the rim. Iowa struggled to get to the rim with success on Maryland in Iowa City earlier this year. I think they'll struggle to be as efficient as normal again here. 

Maryland has scored 69 points or fewer on offense in 10 of their 13 Big Ten contests. The Terrapins are far too reliant on Young in their halfcourt sets. Iowa's defense isn't good, but they have allowed only 67 and 69 points against Maryland the last couple times they have played.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The St. Joe's Hawks have pushed pace to the extreme of late. They played an 80 possession game against St. Louis last time out. They also lost 94-79 (73 possessions) against a Dayton team that generally slows the pace down in a big way. 

St. Joe's lost 78-75 at home to Loyola Chicago. That game was played to a pace of 75 possessions. The shooting numbers were below average for both teams or the game would have been even higher.

Loyola has an elite defense near the basket, but they do give up a lot of open looks from 3. St. Joe's is extremely 3 point heavy, and I think they'll get a lot of good looks from long range here. 

Loyola Chicago has a big edge on offense from 3 as well. St. Joe's is allowing 38.8% from 3 point range in A10 play. 

I think the pace is very quick again and the offenses are more efficient. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Army Black Knights have been a great under team this year. Army plays at an extremely slow pace. They are also 354th out of 362 teams in the country in offensive efficiency. Army does block a lot of shots defensively, and they don't give up many offensive rebounds. 

Boston University is first in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage. They are just 328th out of 362 teams in the country in offensive efficiency. 

The first game between these two was just 61 possessions, and Army won 69-59. Army shot a whopping 62.5% from 2 point range in that game. They average shooting 45.5% from 2 point range in conference play (46.1% for the year). 

I think this game will be played very slowly again. I don't think the efficiency will be as high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Iowa State Cyclones are playing nearly two seconds per possession slower in Big 12 action compared to what they were in the non-conference portion of their schedule. 

Iowa State is third in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Cyclones excel at forcing turnovers. Cincinnati has been turning it over on 19% of their offensive possessions so far this year. The Bearcats are tenth in the Big 12 in offensive efficiency. Cincinnati doesn't have many outside shooters, and Iowa State is good at defending near the hoop.

Cincinnati is 20th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Bearcats are 73rd in the country at defending without fouling. 

Iowa State just played their slowest paced game of the year against TCU (very fast paced team). The Cyclones recent trends makes this an under play for me.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Southern Indiana Screamin' Eagles are a free throw machine. They get to the line more than any other team in the OVC. They also foul more than any other team in the OVC. Both SIU Edwardsville and Southern Indiana have been really good from the free throw line in the conference. 

SIU Edwardsville has been playing to the pace of their opponent. Southern Indiana toyed with playing at a slower tempo earlier in the year, but they have sped up in a big way as the season has moved along. Their full season stats are too slow and low scoring. Their recent stats would have this total a decent amount higher than this.

The pace should be quicker than expected and there should be plenty of free throws in this one too.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* UNLV beat New Mexico 83-73 a few weeks ago in Las Vegas. I think New Mexico gets their revenge here and their offense puts up a big number. 

UNLV has been very weak in transition defense this year. New Mexico is going to push the pace and I think they'll get this game played to a faster pace than the first game. The Pit is a really good home court advantage. House is a terrific point guard and they have scorers all around him.

The Boone's took over in game one, and they do give New Mexico a matchup problem here once again. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Gonzaga Bulldogs travel to Kentucky to take on the Wildcats in a huge game for the Bulldogs.  Gonzaga needs this one with their weak strength of schedule and middling (by their standards) results this year.

Gonzaga always pushes the pace and they are 32nd in average possession length this year. Kentucky is top ten in tempo this season. This should be a track meet.

Kentucky's offensive efficiency at home this year has been excellent. The Wildcats are averaging more than 1.34 points per possession at home this year against Top 100 opponents. Gonzaga fits that perfectly.

Gonzaga isn't accustomed to playing speed and offensive talent like Kentucky's. 

Kentucky hasn't shown the ability to play much defense at all in recent weeks.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Vermont Catamounts are excellent at slowing the game down. I'm confident they'll do their best to slow this pace down in a big way against UMBC. 

UMBC is 4th in the country in tempo, but Towson and NJIT slowed them down a lot. Vermont also played UMBC to their slowest paced game of the season in the first meeting between these two teams. 

Neither of these teams get to the line much at all, and neither defense fouls much. They are both bottom 30 in the nation in FTA/FGA. I wouldn't expect many fouls in this one. 

I'm counting on Vermont's defense to show up ready to go after they were upset by NJIT on Thursday night. 

Vermont has played 22 games against Division One opponents this season. None of those games have gone over this posted total. A nice 22-0 trend. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The High Point offenses has been a thing of beauty this year. Alan Huss was with Creighton for quite a while, and he has a tremendous offensive system. High Point is running it to perfection. They are living at the free throw line, and getting a lot of easy looks from the floor in the half court. 

High Point has amazingly scored 78 points or more in 12 straight games. They have scored 81 points or more in 9 of their last 11 games. Not surprisingly, the over is 9-2 in their last 11 games. 

Gardner Webb isn't bad defensively overall, but they foul like crazy. High Point will take advantage of that. Gardner Webb gets to the line quite a bit too, and the weakness of the High Point defense is they foul too much. 

Gardner Webb has shot the 3 well in the league. High Point shoots 80% from the free throw line in Big South play.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* UT Martin is aggressive and takes the ball inside quite a bit. They have had trouble against teams with really good defensive big men. The best defensive big man in the OVC is Drew Cisse. He is a tremendous shot blocker and he changes the game in a big way.

Western Illinois plays at the second slowest pace of any team in the OVC. They have been great at getting teams to play at their preferred pace. They slowed down the first meeting between these two and I think they'll do it here too.

Western Illinois still struggles offensively, and UT Martin is improved on defense. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Francisco Dons have really picked up their pace in WCC action. San Francisco is second in the league in average possession length. They are first (ahead of Gonzaga) in overall tempo. San Francisco has scored 79 points or more in six of their league games. The pace in each of their last four games has been at least 71 possessions. 

Pepperdine is 301st in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are giving up 1.194 points per possession in the league. They are first in the league in getting to the free throw line on offense though, and the Dons have fouled a lot this season.

KenPom projects just 67 possessions, but I think 70 possessions is a better guess here. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Western Illinois Leathernecks have only had 2 of their last 11 games go over this total. Western Illinois is the slowest paced team in the Ohio Valley Conference. They have done a very good job of controlling the pace even against the quickest paced teams in the league.

Little Rock started the season playing really quickly, but they have slowed significantly in recent weeks. In fact, they have had five straight games played to 69 possessions or fewer. That is despite playing a couple very fast paced teams during that five game stretch.

Little Rock likes to try to score inside, but Drew Cisse is a shot blocker who should give them a lot of trouble. He is at the heart of Western Illinois and their defensive improvements this year.

Little Rock is due for some regression to the mean on their "free throw defense" with OVC opponents shooting 80% from the line against them. Western Illinois shoots 62.9% from the line.

Take the under here.  

*3 Star Play Under* The first game between these two teams was 75-74 in overtime. It was 69-69 before the extra session.

Mount St. Mary's has improved defensively during the season. They have also slowed their pace down some once again as they have in previous seasons. They have defended without fouling in the league. Three straight opponents have been held to 66 points or fewer. 

Manhattan is dreadful on offense. They are 340th in the nation in offensive efficiency. They have defended without fouling and done a decent job on the defensive glass.

These teams both rank in the bottom 30 in the country in FTA/FGA so we shouldn't expect many trips to the line.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The first game between these two MVC foes was 64-62 and played at 65 possessions. KenPom has this game projected at 67 possessions, but I think that is likely too fast. I expect 65 possessions or so again. 

A big strength of both of these teams is they do not give up second chance points. They are also very good at defending without fouling. 

Northern Iowa has been far worse on offense at home than they have been on the road. Their efficiency numbers at home especially in conference play have been very poor. Northern Iowa's last 5 home games have stayed under the posted total, and none of them have been even close.

Missouri State has settled for contested mid range jumpers far too much this year. 

I think the defenses hold the upper hand in this one.

Take the under.