*3 Star Play Under* The Jacksonville State Gamecocks run the ball at a very high rate. Jacksonville State has had trouble finishing drives. They are 128th in the nation in red zone touchdown rate. 

Kennesaw State's offense is way down this year. The Owls have Rickie Collins at quarterback, who transferred in from Syracuse. Collins is very inconsistent and the Owls are leaning on the run game. Kennesaw State torched West Georgia (FCS) in game one, and they haven't scored more than 17 points in a game since. 

Jacksonville State has seen their four games against FBS opponents be a total of 40 points, 56 points (48 before OT), 58 points, and 36 points. 

Kennesaw State has had 48 points against a good GA State offense, 51 points against Tennessee, and 31 points total against Arkansas State. 

I think this total should have been a few points lower.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Anthony Kay is set to start for the White Sox. Sean Burke will follow and pitch plenty here too. Kay has a 1.35 ERA in 20 innings pitched against the Guardians this season. Burke has a 1.04 ERA in 17 innings pitched against the Guardians this year. They are backed by a pretty good bullpen as well.

Cleveland starts Gavin Williams. Williams has been elite at home this year, and he finished with the second most strikeouts in baseball in the regular season. Williams occasionally can give up the home run ball at too high of a rate, but the weather here should help with that. The Guardians bullpen is deep and in good shape here to pitch several innings if needed.

A temperature in the upper 50's with a wind blowing in at about 12 mph is very pitcher friendly at Progressive Field here. Postseason totals with the wind blowing in 8 mph or more have been 43-25 to the under in the last 68. The angle gets stronger with cooler weather too. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Carolina Panthers have cluster injuries at the cornerback position. The Detroit Lions are more than capable of throwing the ball around to their excellent wide receivers. I think Jared Goff and the Lions should hit some explosive plays through the air throughout the game here.

Carolina's offense has been really good so far this year. Bryce Young has been putting it together in the past year. The Panthers scored 37 and 34 points in their first two games. Carolina has been much better at home in recent seasons. The Detroit defense is a bottom six or eight unit in the NFL right now.

Carolina's defense was torched by the Bears. They then played a badly banged up Falcons offense without Penix and a subpar Browns offense. Detroit will be a big test for them once again.

I think both teams have a lot of offensive success here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arkansas State Red Wolves are playing completely different than they did a year ago. The oddsmakers haven't adjusted enough yet. With Trey Owens and a completely new offense they are running the football far more, and they are playing much slower. This was a top 10 tempo team in recent years. They are 11th slowest right now out of 138 teams. A drastic change.

Louisiana had a high scoring game against USC, but the rest of their games have been a slower pace and grind it out type affairs. I think they prefer to run the ball and use up the clock. Louisiana is bottom 20 nationally in tempo.

A lot of running clock here.

Take the under. 

*I would take this one as low as 47. Thanks and good luck*

*4 Star Play Under* The TCU Horned Frogs are strong defensively especially up front. BYU is a run heavy offense, and I think TCU can at least make them work hard to score here.

BYU is bottom 15 nationally in tempo. TCU is below average in tempo. The Horned Frogs are running the football a lot more now with their new OC Sammis. 

TCU is first nationally in explosiveness allowed. They are third in PPA/rush allowed. That should make this a tough matchup for the BYU ground game.

TCU hasn't shown much on offense against their better opponents this year. I don't trust their passing attack, and the BYU defensive front seven is very strong.

Take the under here. 

*4 star play as low as 49.5 and 3 star play down to 47. Thank you.* 

*3 Star Play Over* These are two awful defenses. South Alabama is 131st in success rate allowed. ULM is 137th in success rate allowed. South Alabama is 134th in explosiveness allowed. ULM is 122nd in explosiveness allowed.

South Alabama has been running the football really well of late. They have two good quarterbacks. I don't know if Davenport will be back for this one, but if not we should see a lot of running the football. ULM is 135th out of 138 teams in PPA/rush allowed this year. ULM is 132nd in offensive line yards allowed. South Alabama is averaging 75.5 plays per game on offense, and that run game should find a lot of running room.

ULM got Aidan Armenta back last game and that does help them some. ULM is 46th in rushing play success rate and 75th in PPA/rush. South Alabama is 138th in PPA/rush allowed. The Jaguars are getting torched on the ground by everyone this season. 

ULM has seen three of their four games reach 62 points or higher. South Alabama's last two games have been 77 and 66 points total. They haven't had a game lower than 52 this season.

I think this is a sneaky over.

*I would bet this as high as 58.5 points. Thank you* 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Colorado State Rams are allowing 7.4 yards per play this season. That is bottom five in the country. Oregon State just went up against UTEP who couldn't score in the red zone and looked pretty pathetic in general on offense, but Colorado State's offense is far better and they move much faster.

Colorado State is top 15 nationally in tempo. Oregon State is top 30 in tempo. This game will have a bunch of possessions. It has the makings of a track meet.

Oregon State's Atkinson is a really good quarterback, and this team throws the ball on more than 70% of their offensive plays in a neutral game state. They are looking to throw it around. They should have a lot of success.

Oregon State's defense isn't as good as it looked last week.

Take the over. 

*This is a play as high as 64. Thanks and good luck*

*3 Star Play Over* The Florida Gators have scored at least 44 points in all four of their games. I don't think they'll score that many in this one, but I do think they'll put up a pretty big number. Buster Faulkner might be the best offensive coordinator in the country. Baugh is an electric running back that is still underrated by many people. Philo has been playing well with all the talent around him. 

Missouri lost a lot from last year's defense. The Tigers are just 76th in yards per pass attempt allowed (Florida is 6th offensively here). They are also 74th in rushing explosiveness allowed, and I think Baugh could have a big day here.

Missouri's offense has worked pretty well through the air with Simmons at quarterback. Missouri is 21st in PPA/pass this year. Florida is just 68th in PPA/pass allowed. The Tigers are an underdog here, and I think they could put up quite a few yards and points in catch up mode.

The weather here looks perfect here with a mild temperature and very little wind.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cal Golden Bears offense is a mess. JKS is a talented quarterback, but the play calling here has been horrible. The weapons around him are also weaker than a year ago. The Cal offense is 129th in PPA/rush. They are 104th in PPA/pass. They are 129th in the country in explosiveness. 

UNLV is 90th in PPA/pass on offense. They are 92nd in PPA/rush. The Cal defense is really good in the secondary. They have great safeties patrolling the middle of the field. Jackson Arnold hasn't been very good in this UNLV offense.

These two teams are 123rd and 127th in points per opportunity on offense. They aren't doing a good job cashing in on their red zone trips. 

UNLV has played four games this year and all four have stayed under this total. This is despite them playing two "over" type teams in North Texas and Memphis. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Payton Tolle and Cam Schlittler is a fantastic starting pitching matchup. This should be a fun one.

Tolle is in the top 5% of all pitchers in baseball in expected ERA. Tolle is in the top 4% of all pitchers in baseball in chase rate. He has elite control and when you combine that with great swing and miss stuff outside the zone it is tough to hit. 

Schlittler is a favorite for the Cy Young for good reason. He's been awesome all year. Schlittler ranks in the top 7% of all pitchers in expected ERA, strikeout rate, and average fastball velocity.

Schlittler has dominated this Boston Red Sox lineup. In 85 plate appearances against Schittler, the Red Sox lineup has a .196 weighted on base average. He has 4 walks and 25 strikeouts against them.

Tolle has allowed only a .164 wOBA against the Yankees in 33 plate appearances. 

Both bullpens are elite. The weather here is relatively cool.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Bengals defense is clearly much better this season. Dexter Lawrence is the real deal in the middle of the defensive line. He's making big plays and he's opening things up for everyone else as well. The Bengals are second in havoc created in the first two weeks of the season. The Bengals are also first in EPA/play allowed in the first two games. 

The Pittsburgh Steelers are second in the NFL in EPA/play allowed in the first two games. The Steelers are top five in havoc created as well. They have a long history of getting a ton of pressure on Joe Burrow in these matchups.

I think both quarterbacks will take a lot of hits here. The two teams are likely to settle for quite a few field goals as well.

The Steelers are last in the NFL in yards per play so far this year, and the Bengals are just 22nd in EPA/play on offense.

Taking the under in an AFC North divisional game with a total of 41 or higher is 99-72 (58% unders) since the 2004-2005 season. The angle has been even stronger early in the season.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Seattle Seahawks might have the best defense in the NFL. It is certainly at least one of the top three defenses in the NFL. 

Washington will have Marcus Mariota under center here. Mariota is a decent backup quarterback, but he doesn't have the ability to throw it down the field like Jayden Daniels does. Mariota can move some, but he isn't the weapon Daniels is on the ground. I think Washington will struggle to put together drives against this Seattle defense.

Seattle is playing at the slowest pace of any team in the NFL. Sam Darnold is expected to be back on Sunday, but Seattle might play things a bit safely compared to normal based on his recent injury.

The weather forecast here is important. There are showers expected at times during the game with sustained winds of 15 mph and gusts to 28 mph. It isn't the sole reason I like the bet, but it is a nice bonus.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Lions have one of the best offenses in the NFL. Jared Goff is amazing indoors, and it helps that he has elite talent all around him. The Lions are stacked at the RB and WR spots. Detroit has led the league in scoring and efficiency stats in recent seasons. They averaged 32.5 points per game at home last year. They scored 31 points in their first game at home this season.

Geno Smith has been tremendous in his career when playing in Detroit. Smith has thrown for 1,252 yards in four starts at Ford Field. He has a 68.8% completion percentage. With Wilson on the outside and Hall in the backfield, Smith has enough playmakers around him too. The Lions defense has been torched this season, and I think the Jets can do enough.

The offenses should have the upper hand here on the fast track. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Oregon State Beavers passing attack has been tremendous so far this season. Braden Atkinson has been airing it out early and often. Oregon State is easily first in the nation in pass play rate. They are going to throw it a lot here, and with the matchup they have against the UTEP secondary I think it should go really well.

UTEP is 138th (out of 138 teams) in pass play success rate allowed. They are 136th in PPA/pass allowed. They are 128th in QBR allowed. The Miners secondary is their single biggest weakness as a team. That isn't a good weakness to have going against this Oregon State offense.

Oregon State is top 25 in the nation in tempo. They'll be pushing the pace throughout in this one. UTEP has slowed the pace down against Oklahoma and Michigan, but in the past this team has liked to play quickly. I think that was likely a game plan for playing those much stronger teams. Scotty Walden's philosophy in general has been to play fast. I think they'll get back to that.

UTEP is 61st in PPA/pass on offense. They have found a little bit in the passing game. Oregon State is just 87th in PPA/pass allowed. Oregon State is 103rd in QBR allowed this season.

Oregon State should pile up the points and UTEP should do plenty to get us this one over the total.

Take the over. 

*I would play this to 57 at 4 stars and up to 59 for 3 stars. Thanks and good luck*

*3 Star Play Under* The Arkansas State Red Wolves are playing completely differently than they have in recent seasons. Arkansas State went from one of the fastest tempos in the nation to a very slow pace. The Red Wolves are 127th out of 138 teams in tempo.

Kennesaw State's offense is far weaker this year with Rickie Collins at quarterback. Kennesaw has lost their explosiveness compared to a year ago. The Owls are unlikely to hit the big plays here, but they should run the ball quite a bit.

Arkansas State wants to run as well. With the clock moving and the two teams typically not breaking big plays I see value on the low side here.

Take the under. 

*I would play this as low as 52. Thank you*

*3 Star Play Over* The South Carolina Gamecocks are top 20 in pace of play. Briles and this system are always going to try to push the issue. 

Alabama's pass defense has disappointed so far this year. The Crimson Tide are 121st in yards per pass attempt allowed and 132nd nationally in passing explosiveness allowed. LaNorris Sellers is inconsistent and so are his wide receivers, but they should have some chances for big gainers at times here. 

Russell has had a nice start to his career at Alabama. He'll go up against a South Carolina defense that is 120th in PPA/pass allowed. They are also 104th in havoc created. Alabama has been excellent in points per scoring opportunity (5 points per opportunity) and S Carolina has struggled in red zone defense. Look for the Crimson Tide to cash in on their red zone trips. 

Alabama has scored 45 points or more in each of their contests this season. They might not score quite that many here, but I think it will be a lot. The pace that S Carolina plays at will give them chances too.

Take the over. 

*I would bet this as high as 55.5. Thanks and good luck*

*3 Star Play Under* The Old Dominion Monarchs are 135th in the nation in success rate on offense. Old Dominion is dead last on offense in havoc allowed. The Monarchs get behind the sticks far too often. 

Old Dominion is 15th in the nation in success rate allowed. The Monarchs do have a very strong defense. 

James Madison's offense put up just 20 points on Liberty and 26 on San Diego State. Their offensive stats are skewed by what they did on their FCS opponent (87 points). 

This is a massive game for both teams. They both have aspirations of being the top team in the Sun Belt. I think the defenses have the upper hand here.

Take the under. 

*I would take this as low as 47.5. Thank you*

*3 Star Play Over* The Auburn Tigers are first in the nation in tempo. Alex Golesh's team is absolutely flying on offense. They put up 39 points on Florida yesterday. The Auburn defense was also torched for 44 points and 6.5 yards per play by Florida.

Auburn's first game against Baylor should have been higher scoring and that has kept their totals down a bit too much in the market.

Vanderbilt is better in the passing game with Curtis at quarterback. The Auburn pass defense is 103rd in PPA/pass allowed. Vanderbilt is 25th in passing explosiveness, and Auburn is 125th in passing explosiveness allowed.

The Auburn dual threat QB Byrum Brown should break some big gainers against a questionable Vanderbilt defense too.

Take the over. 

*I would play this up to 56. Thank you. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wyoming Cowboys offense has been terrible this season. They scored 10 and 13 points on their two FBS opponents. They only scored 21 points against Northern Colorado (FCS). Wyoming is 130th nationally in explosiveness on offense. Wyoming is bottom 30 in the nation in tempo as well.

Hawaii's offense is a mess right now too. Micah Alejado was last seen in a sling. He has been taking all sorts of hard hits this season with a terrible offensive line in front of him. Hawaii is 121st in success rate on offense. They are up against a Wyoming defense that is 35th best nationally in explosiveness allowed.

The wind is pretty heavy in Laramie on a frequent basis this time of the year. The current forecast calls for winds around 18 mph during this game which could make the two teams more conservative and make big plays tough to come by.

Take the under. 

*I would play this as low as 43. Thanks and good luck*

*3 Star Play Over* The Notre Dame offense is going to be very good this year. I think their stats are a bit skewed negatively on offense so far this season. Notre Dame just played against a pretty good Michigan State defense in a bad weather game. It was rainy and windy in that one and that changed the way the game was played. I also think the Wisconsin defense is a good unit and the Fighting Irish played them in week one. They had one easy opponent (Rice) and in that one they put up 42 points in the first half and won 52-0. Rice has no offense, but Notre Dame gashed the Rice defense.

Purdue is clearly much improved on offense. I really like what I've seen out of Ryan Browne. He is making good decisions and the Boilermakers are 12th in the nation in PPA/pass so far this season. 

Notre Dame's offense is second nationally in yards per pass attempt. Purdue is 129th in yards per pass attempt allowed. This Boilermakers defense in general is a huge weakness. They are 131st in explosiveness allowed. I expect Carr and Notre Dame to hit a lot of big plays in this one. 

Last year's game was Notre Dame 56-30 over Purdue. I don't think Purdue will score 30 again here, but this Purdue offense is pretty good. Purdue's defense will be overmatched by the Notre Dame offense.

Take the over. 

*I would play this as high as 59.5. Thanks and good luck*

*3 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors host the New Haven Chargers on Saturday afternoon. This is the type of game I bet often in college basketball often, but it is also one where I'm going to take a wager in college football this time around.

The weather report is the reason here. North Andover's forecast calls for heavy rains on Saturday from the Noreaster. The winds will be heavy as well. More than an inch of rain during the day on Saturday with sustained winds of 22 mph and gusts to 45 mph. These are really nasty conditions where it should be tough to play the game in any normal sort of game plan.

Both of these teams have already had several low scoring games this year, and this one should stay lower because of the elements.

Take the under. 

*I would play this as low as 42.5. Thanks and good luck*

*3 Star Play Under* Espino is expected to open for Cleveland with Cantillo coming in as the bulk pitcher. Espino is a highly touted prospect and Cantillo has been throwing the ball really well of late. Cantillo has served as the bulk pitcher after an opener in his last two outings. He has allowed just three hits and no runs in 10 innings pitched in those games. 

Ranger Suarez is getting back into a groove of late. Suarez is a really good left handed starter, and he should make it tough for the Guardians here. Suarez is up against a Guardians team that is bottom six in baseball in all of the major offensive stats against left handed pitching.

The weather is very helpful for an under here. The temperature will drop into the mid 50's during this game. The wind will be blowing straight in from center field at about 10 mph throughout as well.

These are two elite bullpens who can shut down the opposition on a regular basis.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Sean Manaea has a 6.62 ERA and a 6.15 expected ERA in his last six starts. The Texas Rangers aren't very good against right handed pitching, but they have mashing left handed pitching. I don't see any reason to expect Manaea to slow down the Rangers in this one. The Rangers have scored six runs or more in 5 of their last 8 games. 

The Mets offense has really come on late in the season. This offense has been really good on the road. Gore is a middle of the road lefty with middling advanced numbers across the board. He hasn't been in good form lately either.

I understand this is a pitcher friendly park, but these are two average or below average starters. The bullpens aren't good either.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Dallas plays at one of the fastest paces in the NFL. The Eagles slowed things down against Washington last week. I think the Cowboys will push and this is a spot where Dak Prescott should be able to have a good game against a questionable Washington secondary.

Washington is good in the catchup role with Daniels being able to sling it around to McLaurin and company. The Commanders should be involved in quite a few shootouts this year, and in the dome in Dallas should be a good opportunity for one here. 

Dallas is down a couple key defenders and their pass defense will be the biggest weakness this year. Washington can move it through the air. 

Dallas has tons of weapons on offense and the Cowboys will score a bunch at home this year.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* I've actually been pretty impressed with the San Jose State defense so far this year. They didn't give up too many explosives to an excellent USC offense. They gave up only 4.13 yards per play against Eastern Michigan on the road as well. 

Fresno State is an excellent defense. The Bulldogs have one of the best G6 secondaries in the country. San Jose State wants to throw the ball around with Weaver. I think Fresno State is more built to slow that down than the normal team.

Fresno State will want to run the ball early and often here. The Bulldogs also want to control the tempo and keep this one lower scoring.

The game last year between these two was only higher scoring (55 points total) because there were loads of turnovers that led to short fields.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The South Dakota Coyotes are averaging 46 points per game so far this year. That is 6th best in FCS. South Dakota has a really good ground game and a quarterback who does have the potential to air it out when needed. 

Boise State just played a 38-20 game against Memphis. The Broncos won that game, but their defense was absolutely gashed in that game. Memphis averaged a whopping 10.0 yards per play. The lack of late down success and a key turnover really held Memphis back from scoring. That game should have been much higher than 38-20. 

Boise State's offense should be too much for South Dakota to handle. Boise State put up 578 yards of total offense on Memphis last week. Their offensive line has been great thus far. 

South Dakota has allowed at least 20 points in all three of their FCS games thus far. They allowed 55 points in their loss to Iowa State last year. I think their defense will be pushed around here.

Take the over. 

*Note I would take this as high as 59. Thanks and good luck.

*3 Star Play Under* The Arkansas State Red Wolves have completely changed the way they play this year. They talked in the preseason about slowing the pace down and controlling the clock. So far this year, they are the 5th slowest paced team in the country (138 teams). They were 13th quickest in the nation last year. 

TCU is also changing their style of play. The Horned Frogs have a new OC and they want to run the football more and slow things down a bit. They are now slightly slower than the national average in tempo after consistently being a fast paced team under Sonny Dykes in the past.

TCU's defensive front is their strength. I don't think Arkansas State can have much success running the football here.

TCU rolled up a big number on Grambling last week, but this offense still has plenty to prove.

With the new slower tempo from them both, I think this number is set too high.

Take the under. 

*I would play this as low as 55. Thank you and good luck*

*3 Star Play Over* The UCF Knights talked a lot about playing at a faster pace once again this year. UCF is coming off an ugly 12-7 loss to Pitt last Saturday. The weather was terrible in that game and it definitely changed the way that game went. Pitt is a solid front seven on defense too, and they got into the backfield a lot.

In this game, UCF is playing against an inferior opponent that has a very big specific weakness on the defensive front seven. UCF's Alonza Barnett should have far more time to throw in this game. The ground game for UCF will have more success here as well. 

Georgia State's Cameran Brown is a good quarterback, and McCreary has come on at running back. The Panthers still have their clear problems on defense, but this Georgia State offense is above average. I think they can do some damage against a UCF defense that isn't dominant.

Scott Frost's teams have been good at running up the score against weaker opponents leading to overs. Frost's teams have been favored by 17 or more at home on 10 occasions, 7 of those 10 have gone over the total and the average margin for the whole 10 game sample size is +9.25 points over the posted total.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Old Dominion and East Carolina both lost their star quarterbacks from a year ago, and these teams look a whole lot different on offense now. 

Old Dominion has slowed down to playing a slower than average pace after playing very fast the last few seasons. The Monarchs have a veteran defense that should be elite in the front seven against other Group of 6 teams. They just don't have the offense to win shootouts on a regular basis anymore.

East Carolina could only muster 24 points against a below average App State defense last week. The Pirates are still better than average on defense, but their high flying passing attack has been significantly weakened without Houser. 

I had this game circled in the preseason to bet toward the under. I haven't seen anything in the first couple games from these two that makes me want to change my mind.

A hard fought defensive battle is what I expect.

Take the under. 

*I would bet this as low as 47.5. Thank you*

*4 Star Play Under* The Ball State Cardinals want to play slowly and keep games lower scoring. They don't have the offensive firepower to get into shootouts. 

Liberty's offense was broken last year. It has been awful again so far this year. Chadwell seems to not be able to find a quarterback to run his unique system. Liberty struggled and only scored 24 points on FCS Gardner Webb yesterday. Liberty could only muster 13 points against JMU in the season opener.

Tempo wise both teams are crawling. This should be a game that doesn't have many possessions. 

Liberty's defense is strong enough in the trenches to hold down the Ball State running attack. A lot of rushing attempts in this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The latest forecasts here make this game looked interesting for Saturday. There is rain in the forecast for Ann Arbor on Saturday, and the latest forecasts are upping the rainfall amounts. It looks like heavier rain is possible during this game. Importantly, the wind forecasts keep moving up as well. The expectations now are for sustained winds of 12 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. This kind of rain and wind can really change the game.

UTEP was unable to score a point against Oklahoma in game one. The Miners have slowed their tempo down to where they are bottom 50 in the nation in tempo. 

Michigan is bottom 25 in the nation in tempo so far this year. The Wolverines should be run heavy here and keep things vanilla before they play a really good defense (Iowa) next week.

My number was already below the posted total and with the added factor of rain and wind I am firing here.

Take the under. 

*I would play this as low as 47*

*3 Star Play Under* This is not a game I would have expected to play under the total in the preseason, but here we are. North Texas is 125th out of 138 teams in the country in tempo. The Mean Green are playing very slowly, and they want to run the football a lot. 

Texas State is 23rd in the nation in tempo. The Bobcats certainly prefer to play quickly. Beau Sparks is the star wide receiver for Texas State. He missed last game and is a game time decision for this one. Sample is another key wide receiver and he is questionable as well.

Texas State's passing attack wasn't as good as normal against a poor pass defense in UTSA last week. Texas State threw the ball 30 times for just 192 yards. That game was 31-26 and it was a game of two strong offenses who like to play quickly. Here, we have a total set higher than that and one of the teams is looking to stall and control the football.

This is a really high total in today's college football, and I'm going to go under this high total.

Take the under. 

*I would play this one as low as 61. Thanks and good luck*

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Mets are third in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 14 days. This Mets offense has been hot of late. Shane Baz has been pretty good this season, but he struggles against left handed batters. The Mets are now able to put together a nice lineup of left handed hitters to make things difficult for Baz. I think they can do some damage here.

Baltimore is 7th in the majors in runs scored per game on the road. Baltimore is also much better against left handed pitching than they are against right handers. The Orioles are 12th in the majors in weighted on base average against left handers compared to just 23rd against right handed pitching.

Sean Manaea is in really poor form coming into this game. Manaea has a 7.22 ERA and a 6.96 expected ERA in his last five starts overall. He has allowed 7 home runs in those starts. His swinging strikes rate is way down as well.

Both teams should have success here.

Take the over. 

AL West Total of the Year *4 Star Play Under* Reid Detmers has been the best pitcher in baseball over the last few weeks. Detmers has allowed a grand total of 3 runs in his last six starts. He has a 0.69 ERA during that time and a sparkling 1.54 FIP. He has walked just nine batters and struck out 41 hitters during that time. Detmers has just one total walk in his last three outings. He is coming off arguably his best start of the season.

Kade Anderson is an extremely highly touted left handed pitching prospect for Seattle. Anderson has a 4.29 ERA in his first four starts in the majors, and he is coming off his best start.

The Mariners are dead last in the majors in wOBA against lefties this year. The Angels are just 22nd in wOBA against left handed pitching this season.

It is surprising but the most pitcher friendly ballpark in baseball so far this season has been Angel Stadium. 

The under is 46-28 in the Angels home games so far this year. Here we have a dominant lefty and a solid lefty against two offenses who have been very weak against left handed pitching. We also have a fair total of 8 runs. I'm going to the low side here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Lions have been the highest scoring team in the NFL at home. They have scored 34.9 points per game and 32.5 points per game at home in the last two years. Detroit now has a new OC Drew Petzing. He should help the Lions be even better on offense this year. Gibbs is a superstar in the backfield both running the football and being a weapon in the passing game. 

The Saints offense impressed under Tyler Shough last year, and OC Kellen Moore always wants to play faster than the average team. New Orleans has underrated wide receivers when healthy. 

The Lions secondary is a major concern. Detroit is likely to give up a lot of yards through the air this season. 

The Saints defense is middle of the pack or so, and on the fast track in Detroit they'll give up a lot to this ultra talented offense.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* I expect Sac State to struggle to score this season. They have way too many FCS guys at the skill positions and a below average offensive line. 

Fresno State is going to play very slowly and look to run the football with Luke at running back. The new quarterback looked terrible against USC. He will likely look better here against the Sac State defense, but Entz is a run first coach who doesn't typically try to run up the score as much as the average guy.

Both teams should be run heavy here. Fresno is the better team and they should have some long time consuming drives.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* When these two teams met last year, Navy put up 503 yards of total offense and Florida Atlantic gained 444 total yards. The final was 42-32 Navy. 

Navy's offense is down some from last year in the passing game, but they will still be very good on the ground. Florida Atlantic has struggled to stop the run in recent seasons, and I need to see them prove it before I trust them to stop the run.

The Florida Atlantic Owls passing attack should be better with another year in Kittley's offensive system under their belts. VeltKamp is capable of slinging it around and Easton Messer is a good second option at QB. 

The Navy defense is weakest in the secondary. Navy was even beaten through the air multiple times last week by Towson. Navy is very vulnerable to pass heavy teams. FAU definitely will be that all season.

Florida Atlantic is the fastest paced team in the country, and they'll make sure there are plenty of possessions in this game.

Both offenses have the upper hand.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Nico Iamaleava played well for much of the game against Cal this past weekend. He was banged up late in the game, but Bob Chesney said in the postgame that he was fine and just cramped up some. Nico did come back in to take the final snap in the game. 

San Diego State gave up 375 yards of total offense to Portland State. Aurich is gone and a bunch of the top San Diego State defensive talent went with him. I expect the Aztecs to be much weaker on defense this season. 

San Diego State's offense was playing quite a bit quicker last night, and I look for that to continue. Sean Lewis wants to speed up the pace. Sutton is a good runner.

The UCLA running backs are dynamic. I really like Knight as a big playmaker in the backfield. He is really shifty. Anthony Woods averaged 14.8 yards per carry against Cal and he's a star as well. UCLA should pile up the rushing yards here.

Take the over. 

*I would play this for 4 stars up to 53 and for 3 stars higher than that* 

*4 Star Play Over* The MTSU Blue Raiders offense got much better late last year when Gagliano took over at quarterback. The passing game started surprising people. They put up 8.0 yards per play against W Kentucky late last year. MTSU just put up 8.3 yards per play on Murray State in game one this season. Murray State is a bad team, but MTSU has struggled with FCS foes in the past. The Blue Raiders offense is improved.

Marshall looked terrible in week one against Penn State. The Thundering Herd were a no show in that game. I think it will look a lot different for the Marshall offense against a very weak MTSU defense. The Blue Raiders secondary will be one of the worst in the country. Carlos Del Rio-Wilson has good receivers and Marshall's passing attack should look good in this one. 

Marshall will be playing fast with Rob Smith as their offensive coordinator. 

Last year when these two met the final was 42-28 Marshall. MTSU had 7.8 YPP and Marshall had 6.3 YPP. Marshall had 448 total yards of offense. 

Lower scoring games in the first game brought this total down. I think that created value for us.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Cal Golden Bears played at a much faster pace in game one. Cal was at a very quick 23.5 seconds per play in their opening game loss to UCLA. JKS is a really good quarterback. He was up against a UCLA defense that I think is much improved. I do expect him to have success against many secondaries.

Syracuse is much better offensively. They have a star quarterback back in Angeli. Last year when he was hurt the productivity was way down. The Orange want to play faster and their RPO style offense is likely to work well against a Cal defense that I believe is pretty weak. 

Two teams with very good quarterbacks playing in a dome on the fast track. I think this total is set too low.

Take the over. 

*I would play this for 4 stars up to 57 and 3 stars anything higher. Thanks and good luck*

*3 Star Play Under* The BYU Cougars lost a bunch of talent at wide receiver. I expect BYU to be even more run heavy this season with Martin and a strong offensive line. Bachmeier is good, but isn't the type of guy that will drop back and throw the deep ball a lot. I think BYU's offense will be successful this year, but I don't think it will be all that explosive. BYU also plays at a bottom ten tempo. A lot of time consuming drives. 

Arizona's offense has a good quarterback in Fifita, but the weapons around him have gotten much worse. The Arizona offensive line is likely to have trouble controlling the line of scrimmage here too. The BYU defensive front and linebackers are excellent. I think the Cougars will be in the backfield a lot in this game.

The weather could help out here too. The average of three forecasts is calling for 19 mph winds with gusts to 30 mph during this game. That would make the two offenses more conservative and help the defenses stack up the box to stop the run.

Take the under. 

*I would bet this as low as 46. Thanks and good luck*

*3 Star Play Under* Parker Messick is one of my favorite young pitchers in baseball. He is in the top 12% of all pitchers in baseball in expected ERA this season. He has a 2.37 ERA and a 2.73 FIP in his last five starts. Messick is in really good form coming into this one. In 51 plate appearances against him, the Twins lineup has just a .285 wOBA against Messick.

Taj Bradley is a solid young starter as well. Bradley has been much better when pitching at home. He has allowed a .281 wOBA at home compared to .325 on the road. In 84 plate appearances against Bradley, the Guardians have a low .269 weighted on base average. 

The two bullpens are in good shape coming into this one as far as rest. I'll look for this one to be a lower scoring tight game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Mets offense has been red hot of late. They have scored 7.5 runs per game in their last six games. This Mets team is battling until the end, and some of the youngsters they have brought up have been great for this offense. The Marlins offense also ranks top ten in the majors in the last week. Both of these offenses have a low batting average on balls in play in the last week, so it hasn't been lucky offensive outputs. They have been hitting the ball really hard.

Robert Stock carries a very high walk rate, and that leads to a bunch of base runners. The Marlins will get their chances here.

Janson Junk has worse numbers throughout his career late in the season. He has faded many times late in the season, and the Mets are a tough matchup right now.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Angels have scored 3 runs or fewer in 9 of their last 11 games. The Angels have been weak against left handed pitching during this streak. Patrick Sandoval is inconsistent, but he is up against a weak lineup. He's backed a strong bullpen that is well rested.

Reid Detmers has only allowed a grand total of three earned runs in his last five starts. Detmers has a 0.82 ERA in that time and a 1.61 FIP. Detmers is throwing the ball as well as anyone in the majors of late. The Boston offense has slumped of late.

These two bullpens both rank in the top five in the majors in SIERA and FIP in the last four weeks. The Angels bullpen has improved a lot of late. 

Fenway is a place where the weather matters and the temperature here will be dropping into the 60's during the game. The slight breeze here will be blowing in from right field.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The weather can be a factor in Cleveland home games. When the wind is blowing in from right field the under has been a very good wager in the last 15 years. The times when the temperature isn't hot are even stronger to the under. In this one we have an average temperature of just 73 degrees and sustained winds blowing in at about 15 mph from right field.

Gavin Williams is more than capable of shutting down any lineup. He's been much better pitching at home. He ranks in the top 3% of all pitchers in the majors in strikeout percentage. The Tigers have a lot of guys who swing at a bunch of bad pitches. The Guardians best bullpen arms are well rested here too.

Cleveland has been poor offensively overall this year. Jackson Jobe is inconsistent and he can struggle with the home run ball, but the weather is helpful here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Diego State Aztecs slowed their pace down last year to win with their strong defense. A bunch of the key San Diego State defenders from a year ago either left to go to Nebraska with their old defensive coordinator or graduated.

Sean Lewis at his heart is a fast tempo offensive coach. He has talked about getting the pace back this season, and this is a great chance for them to do just that. Portland State is a really bad defensive squad. They allowed 69 points in a 69-0 loss against BYU last season. The Portland State run defense is abysmal. 

Portland State's offense has shown some signs of life, and they definitely prefer to play fast. I think they can do just enough here.

San Diego State should throttle down and they should hang a big number. I think this team is being priced too much like last year's team.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Troy Trojans have a new offensive coordinator this season. Adam Austin comes in from Tarleton State where the team played at a very fast tempo and was excellent offensively. Troy has been conditioning a bunch in the offseason to try to play at a fast pace and wear down opposing defenses. The Trojans have also been practicing with a shorter play clock to make snapping the ball sooner a consistent thing. 

Goose Crowder is a really good quarterback. He has nice touch on the deep ball, and makes good decisions with the ball. The Sam Houston defense is a major weakness, and I think Troy can hang a big number here. 

Troy's defense lost all 3 of their starters at linebacker. The Trojans aren't bad defensively, but they will be down some.

Sam Houston's offense should improve some this season. McCaskill is a really talented back, and they should have some stability at the quarterback spot. Longo has more of the guys he wants on this offense than he did a year ago. They will also play quickly here, so there should be a lot of possessions in this game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Memphis Tigers have a dominant defensive front. They overwhelmed UNLV late in their first game. Memphis is definitely more complete on the defensive end of the field. The offense still has question marks with youth and inexperience. They hit a few big plays against UNLV, but they were inconsistent.

Arkansas State brought in a new offensive coordinator from Vanderbilt (Altman). Altman has been a run heavy guy who likes to play at a very slow pace. I think he will slow things down quite a bit for the Red Wolves. Raynor is gone at quarterback too. Arkansas State is likely to try to be very run heavy here while the game is competitive. They should be able to shorten the game somewhat.

At a key number here, I like the under with the Memphis very strong defensive line and Arkansas State slowing the pace down.

Take the under. 

*This line has moved some during the week. I would play this as low as the key number of 52. Thanks and good luck*

*3 Star Play Over* Daniel Lynch had done a nice job coming out of the bullpen, but he has been overmatched when starting this year. Lynch has an ERA over 6 when starting this season. The Blue Jays lineup has just started hitting of late. They have 25 runs in their last four games. 

Jameson Taillon is in the bottom three percent of all pitchers in the majors in expected ERA. 

The Kansas City Royals offense is top five in the majors in all major offensive categories in the last two weeks. Kansas City has been red hot at home offensively. 

It helps that the weather has been really beneficial to run scoring in KC, and that is the case once again on Friday night. A temperature in the 90's and the slight breeze blowing out helps.

The two bullpens here are in terrible shape, and I think there could be a lot of runs late.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights have a star receiver in KJ Duff. There is no one on this UMass roster who is even remotely capable of defending him. Rutgers quarterback Dylan Lonergan isn't a star by any means, but he will look good against this lowly UMass defense. Rutgers has a pretty solid offensive line, and they have skill position talent around him that will overwhelm UMass.

The Rutgers defense is still a big weakness. This Rutgers defense was beaten badly even by weaker teams last year. I don't think UMass will score a lot of points here, but I do think they'll score some and move the ball. Pop Watson gives UMass a much better quarterback than they have had in a few years. Watson is a Virginia Tech transfer who has a high upside. Griffin is his top receiver. Griffin was on Watson's team in high school and they have a great connection.

Rutgers is still priced as a lower scoring games type of team. Last year, they won 34-31 over Ohio in week one. They beat Miami Ohio 45-17 in week two. Miami actually had better than 8 yards per play in that one as well. Iowa scored 38 points on this Rutgers defense a year ago.

Rutgers has big offensive advantages and Schiano has run up the score in the past in these situations. UMass has a bottom two or three defense in the country. The Rutgers defense is a big weakness too.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Bryce Miller has been terrible in the last couple months after starting the season strong. Miller has a 7.19 ERA and a 6.30 FIP in his last eight starts. He has allowed 5 runs or more in 5 of those 8 starts. I don't trust Miller to quiet the Boston bats in this one. 

Pablo Sandoval is an inconsistent starter. He has allowed a .372 weighted on base average at Fenway Park. Sandoval has an ERA above 5 in his last four starts. 

The Mariners offense has broken out in the last two games. They were carrying the lowest batting average on balls in play in the majors in the last 10 games before this streak. They are starting to see the ball better and the better luck has shown up here in Boston.

Both starters have blow up potential and the price is low enough where I'm going to side with the over.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The weather matters a lot at Wrigley Field. Warm temperatures and winds blowing out have led to some really high scoring games the last few days. We have similar conditions on Tuesday night. A temperature near 90 degrees at first pitch and winds blowing out at about 6-8 mph. 

The last four games have seen an average of 18 runs scored per game at Wrigley. There has been at least 12 runs scored in each of those games.

Matt Boyd has a 2.83 ERA on the road, but he has been hit hard at home. Boyd's ERA at Wrigley is 5.44. The Brewers lineup has an impressive .350 weighted on base average against Boyd too. 

The Chicago Cubs lineup is first in baseball by a wide margin against left handed pitching. They are also first in baseball in total offense in the last two weeks. 

Robert Gasser is a below average lefty pitching in tough conditions in Wrigley. I think he'll give up quite a few here.

Both teams should contribute well to this total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Seattle Storm are without two key players in this one. Hiedeman averages 15.4 points per game and 4.8 assists per game. She will be out for this game. Awa Fam is averaging 10.3 points and 5.7 rebounds per game and she is expected to miss this game as well. Seattle's offense is already one of the worst in the WNBA, and now they are very shorthanded.

The Sparks have had a lot of lower scoring games of late. Six of their last seven games have stayed under this total.

A Sunday earlier start on the West Coast here too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* I'm very high on the USC offense this year. They have a star quarterback in Maiava who is going to pick apart most defenses they face. The depth USC has in the backfield is nearly unmatched nationally. The Trojans have recruited really well on the offensive line, and I expect the line to be much better this season. USC has a lot of speed on the outside too with young receivers ready to make a big impact.

San Jose State's defense should be one of the worst in the country this year. San Jose State's defensive line is below average, and the linebackers and secondary are terrible. I expect the Spartans to be picked apart on a regular basis. It starts here against a USC offense that is just too talented for them.

USC has a history of giving up some points in these blowout spread games. San Jose State has a decent quarterback in Weaver and the spread and shred offense is expected to play quickly. They will try to throw it around and break a play here or there.

In Lincoln Riley's last 15 games as a favorite of more than 28 points, the over is a whopping 13-2. The average total score in those 15 games is 73.47 points. Last year they beat Missouri State 73-13 and then beat GA Southern 59-20. 

I don't think it is out of the realm of possibilities that USC tops 60 by themselves here. A 56-10 type of game or somewhere in that range. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Chicago Cubs are first in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. The Diamondbacks are second. These two teams have mashed lefties all season, but they have been particularly good of late. Both teams have been hanging big numbers against some pretty good left handed pitchers.

Eduardo Rodriguez has a good ERA, but his underlying metrics suggest he has been quite fortunate. Rodriguez has pitched against a bunch of weaker offenses of late, and now he faces a Cubs offense that is crushing lefties. This is a tough task.

Matthew Boyd has a 6.12 ERA and a 7.69 FIP in his last four starts. Boyd isn't missing bats, and his normally good control has really fallen off badly. Boyd has allowed eight home runs in his last four starts. 

I think both teams will have a lot of scoring opportunities in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Walbert Urena has been the best LA Angels starting pitcher for most of this season. Urena has been throwing the ball really well of late. In his last eight starts, he has thrown 41 innings and allowed only 22 hits and 10 runs. Urena has a 2.20 ERA in that time. He has only allowed two home runs in that time. Urena has been at his best when pitching at home. Urena has a 2.27 ERA for the season at home. He has allowed opponents to have only a .176 batting average at home. 

Gavin Williams is in the top 3% of all pitchers in K rate. Williams has a 2.80 ERA and a 2.69 FIP in his last six starts. Williams has great swing and miss stuff, and the Angels have a bunch of guys who strike out a lot. Williams should have success here.

It is surprising, but Angel Stadium actually ranks as the most pitcher friendly stadium so far this season according to Baseball Savant's park factor. 

Both bullpens are better than average.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians start Parker Messick here. Messick is their ace, and he is a tremendous young left hander. Messick has an expected ERA which is in the 90th percentile in all of baseball. He has a 1.88 ERA in his last eight starts. He has a 2.42 expected ERA in those outings. 

The Angels offense has really been struggling of late. The Angels have scored 3 runs or fewer in seven of their last eight games. Messick is a tough guy to go against in this spot.

Klassen is a top ten prospect for the Angels. He's been inconsistent, but the Guardians lineup is certainly a below average lineup.

The Angels have been a top five bullpen in all the major statistics and advanced metrics since the break. The Guardians have an above average pen too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Diego Padres offense has been on fire of late. San Diego is third in the last 14 days in wOBA. They are fourth in the last 30 days in wOBA. Bailey Ober has a 6.75 ERA on the road this season. Ober ranks in the bottom 10% of all pitchers in chase rate, and his velocity on his fastball is way down.

Walker Buehler has been inconsistent this year. Buehler ranks in the bottom 40% of all pitchers in nearly all of the advanced stats, and I don't trust him to get a pretty decent Twins lineup out throughout this start.

The Padres bullpen is a bit taxed, and the Twins bullpen has been weak of late.

Both teams should have plenty of scoring chances.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Dylan Cease is a serious contender for American League Cy Young this season. Cease has done his best work on the road. He has a 1.71 ERA on the road this season. Opponents are hitting a miserable .155 against Cease away from home. 

This Yankees lineup has struggled badly with Cease in the past too. Cease has allowed just a .168 batting average and a .233 wOBA against the current Yankees lineup.

Ryan Weathers has been very solid this season. Weathers has a 1.98 ERA in the second half of the season. The Blue Jays lineup has been awful against left handed pitching all season.

Cease has an ERA that is more than a full run lower in day games than in night games in his career. 

The wind is blowing in for this game too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Troy Melton and Noah Cameron are two impressive young starting pitchers. Melton has a 1.71 ERA on the season, and he is in the 88th percentile of all pitchers in expected ERA. Melton is that rare pitcher who generates a bunch of swings and misses and also has great control. 

Noah Cameron started the year a little slowly, but he has been lights out of late. Cameron has allowed 0 runs in three of his last five starts, and his only poor start recently was against the Dodgers in LA. Cameron goes up against a Tigers lineup that has been struggling and is dealing with some key injuries. 

I think both of these pitchers are underrated by the market. The Tigers bullpen is strong. The Royals bullpen is a weakness, but Cameron has been going very deep into the game on a consistent basis.

The little bit of wind that there is here is blowing in and the temperature has cooled down a bit in KC compared to earlier in the month.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians start Gavin Williams here. While he was shaky in his last start against the Padres, he has been very good overall and has had great strikeout stuff working in recent outings. In his last 8 outings, Williams is striking out 13.88 batters per nine innings pitched. He has a 2.67 expected ERA during that eight game stretch. His ERA is nearly a full run better at home too.

Landen Roupp has been pretty good for the Giants this season. Chase DeLauter has been out for the Guardians and is questionable for this one with an injury. He's a key bat in the middle of this order. 

The Guardians bullpen is above average, and the Giants bullpen has been improved of late.

The Giants have scored 1 run or less in 6 of their last 12 games overall. The offense has been struggling in a big way.

The wind is expected to be blowing in at about 10-12 mph in Cleveland for this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Diego Padres are first in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 30 days. The New York Mets are 10th. In the last 14 days, the Mets are third and the Padres are 6th. These two offenses have been good of late.

Last night's game was 5-2, but Tatis robbed what would have been a grand slam for the Mets as well. 

Michael King gets the start here for the Padres. King is a decent pitcher,  but he has slightly worse numbers late in the season. King can also give up the home run a little too much. The wind is blowing out here with a high of 87 degrees. It is good weather for the ball to fly well at Citi.

Robert Stock has a ridiculously high walk rate. He's had that in the past in his career as well at previous stops. The Padres are 7th in the majors in walk percentage against right handed pitching. San Diego should have a lot of traffic on the bases here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Seattle Mariners have started to hit slightly better of late. They are averaging 5.25 runs per game in their last five games. Seattle's offense has been significantly better away from their home field (a very pitcher friendly park). 

Bryce Miller was amazing early in the season, but something has broken of late. Miller has a 6.12 ERA and a 5.65 FIP in his last six starts. He has allowed 7 home runs in his last 32.1 innings pitched. The Brewers offense has been really good at home this season, and I think Milwaukee does some damage on Miller here.

Kyle Harrison has been very good this year, but his career splits are much worse late in the season. His level has dipped a bit of late. I don't think Seattle will crush him, but I do think they can put some on the board. 

This is a really low total and I'm going with the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* In the last 30 days, the Toronto Blue Jays offense ranks 28th out of 30 teams in the majors in weighted on base average. The New York Yankees are 29th. These two offenses have been struggling mightily. 

Dylan Cease is a co-favorite for the AL Cy Young. Cease has a 1.31 ERA and a 2.22 expected ERA since the start of July. He should pitch deep into this game.

Ryan Weathers has been good overall, and he has been even better on the road. Weathers has a 3.35 ERA on the road this season. The Toronto Blue Jays are last in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching.

I see a tight low scoring game in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Michael King has a 2.93 ERA in his last 7 starts (since the start of July). King has allowed just one run in 4 of those 7 starts. King has allowed this Guardians lineup to hit just .175 in 47 plate appearances.

Gavin Williams is throwing the ball about as well as any pitcher in the majors right now. Williams has a 1.42 ERA and a 1.32 expected ERA in his last four starts. He has 4 walks and a whopping 40 strikeouts in those four starts. He is getting all kinds of swings and misses. 

The wind is blowing in from right field at about 7-9 mph during this one, and that can make a difference close to the lake. 

Both bullpens are well rested, and they both have some high quality late innings arms. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Portland Fire have had a bunch of high scoring games of late. Portland has seen 5 of their last 7 games finish with 193 points or more.

Minnesota has torched this Portland defense twice for 107 and 101 points. The Lynx have scored 98 or more in 5 of their last 6 games. Minnesota has played down to competition some of late though, and Portland is at least competing here later in the season.

The tempo should be quick and I think that gives Portland an opportunity to do enough to get this one past the posted total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Baltimore has been struggling badly on offense since trading away Taylor Ward. The Orioles are weaker against right handed pitching. Nate Eovaldi isn't as dominant as he was a few years ago, but he is still a quality pitcher. The Rangers bullpen is in good shape heading into this one as well.

Shane Baz has rounded into form of late. Baz has a 2.63 ERA in his last five starts. He has a 2.00 FIP in those starts. Baz has historically been a much better pitcher in the second half of the season. The Rangers offense is much weaker against right handed pitching than lefties.

This is the second most pitcher friendly park in the majors so far this year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Dylan Cease is a deserving American League Cy Young co-favorite right now. Cease has a 1.92 ERA and a .230 weighted on base average allowed on the road. Cease has a 1.00 ERA and a 2.18 FIP in his last five starts overall. He is in the top 4% of all pitchers in expected batting average, and he's in the top 1% of all pitchers in K rate. 

The Cubs are elite against lefties. They are above average against righties, but not nearly as good as they are against lefties.

David Peterson isn't a great pitcher, but he is in good form of late. The Toronto Blue Jays are also dead last in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. 

The wind at Wrigley Field isn't really a factor in this one, and the temperature is expected to be cooler here with cloudy skies and a high of just 79 degrees.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Sean Burke has a 1.42 ERA and a 2.19 FIP in his last seven starts. Burke has a .118 batting average allowed in a very small sample against this Red Sox lineup. Burke is pitching deep into games of late.

Sonny Gray has been solid all season long. Gray has a 2.93 ERA on the season. He has a 2.72 ERA at home this year. Gray is up against a White Sox offense that has scored 2 runs or less in 4 of their last 7 games.

These bullpens are in pretty good shape heading into this one too.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The LA Dodgers are 13-3 to the over in their last 16 road games vs. a left handed starter. The Dodgers offense hasn't been up to par of late, but this is an elite lineup that should get it going soon. 

Shota Imanaga struggles badly with the home run ball, especially at Wrigley with the wind blowing out. There are warm temperatures and winds of 8-10 mph expected to be blowing out in this one. Imanaga has a .341 wOBA against the Dodgers with a .384 expected wOBA. 

Eric Lauer is a below average left hander, and the Cubs crush left handed pitching. Lauer has a .350 wOBA allowed against his lineup with a .347 expected wOBA.

I think both lineups do damage here. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The St. Louis Cardinals and the New York Yankees have been the worst and second worst offenses in baseball in the last two weeks. Both of them have some good bullpen arms and a quality starter going here. 

Cam Schlittler is one of the best young pitchers in baseball. He's been locking down opponents of late. He has 1 walk and 28 strikeouts in his last three starts. I think he pitches very well here.

McGreevy certainly isn't on that level, but he does have a 3.57 ERA this season. 

Take the under in this one. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Royals offense just isn't the same without Bobby Witt Jr. He'll be back soon, but he will miss this contest. The Royals are averaging just 3 runs per contest in their last 12 games. They haven't scored more than 5 runs in any of those games. 

Ryan Feltner isn't a good starting pitcher, but I do think he is better than the market rates him. He has been decent at Coors Field for most of the season.

Avila starts for the Royals, and the Rockies lineup has been struggling of late as well. 

A total of 12 is really high even for Coors Field. Both of these offenses are clearly worse than league average, and I just can't support a total being this high with these offenses.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Toronto Blue Jays are in the bottom five in weighted on base average in the majors in the last 14 days. The St. Louis Cardinals are last. These two offenses come into this one really struggling swinging the bat.

Leahy has been excellent the last few games. The Blue Jays lineup could be without Vlad Jr here (questionable) due to an injury. 

Dylan Cease has an ERA under 2 since June and Cease also has a FIP just as low. It hasn't been a fluke. Cease is dominating. The Blue Jays bullpen is throwing the ball well also.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Chicago Cubs offense is on fire of late. The Cubs have scored 10 runs or more in three of their last six games. 

The Pittsburgh Pirates still rate first in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching for the season. Jameson Taillon is back from an injury and he has been hit hard this season. He isn't the pitcher he was a few years ago.

Ashcraft has fallen off badly in his last four starts, and the Cubs will make him work in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Nolan Mclean has been dealing of late. Mclean has allowed 2 earned runs in his last four starts combined. The Dodgers are a really good offense, but they haven't been at their best of late. Mclean will give them a tough challenge here. 

Yamamoto is one of the best pitchers in the majors. The Mets have scored 4 runs or less in 9 of their last 10 games. This offense has a really hard time stringing together hits. Yamamoto has been far better when pitching on the road compared to at home.

The bullpens are in pretty good shape rest wise heading into this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Eury Perez is a streaky pitcher, and he has been throwing the ball extremely well of late. Perez has a 1.24 ERA in his last five starts and his expected ERA is 2.12. Perez has seen his velocity on his fastball go up lately, and his strikeout rate has been high as well. 

While the Padres have hit better of late, this is still a bottom five offense for the season as a whole. The Marlins bullpen is a solid unit too.

Miami has scored 2 runs or fewer in 8 of their last 10 games. The Marlins have regressed toward the mean on offense. Randy Vasquez now starts for the Padres. He is no star, but the Padres bullpen is excellent as well. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Eduardo Rodriguez has outperformed his underlying metrics all season long. I think Rodriguez is due for some regression the rest of the way. He has a 2.62 ERA and a 5.12 expected ERA. Rodriguez has an extremely high strand rate. He's up against a Nationals offense that is tied for first in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. Washington is crushing the baseball.

Washington starts Palmquist as an opener, and Littell is expected to enter afterward. Littell is in the bottom 3% of all pitchers in the majors in expected ERA and expected batting average allowed. Arizona's offense is above average.

These two bullpens are a mess. The Nationals might have the worst bullpen in the majors. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Texas Rangers are much better against left handed pitching. They are third in wRC+ in the majors against lefties. Anthony Kay has been struggling of late, and I think they can put up a good number against Kay and the White Sox bullpen. 

Tyler Alexander will open for Cal Quantrill here for the Rangers. Quantrill's advanced metrics are far worse than his ERA. I think he is due for regression and is being overrated by the marketplace right now.

The White Sox are an above average lineup, and the Rangers are elite against left handed pitching.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tampa Bay Rays start Shane McClanahan here. He has shut down ability, and he has been a streaky pitcher this season. He has two straight shutouts in his last two starts, and he has walked no batters in those two games. Boston has been red hot on offense, but I do think they will regress to the mean at some point, and McClanahan is the best lefty they have seen in a long time.

Sonny Gray has consistently been great this season. Gray has a 1.60 ERA and a 2.34 expected ERA in his last six starts. His strikeout rate has gradually gone up throughout the season.

McClanahan has been throwing harder of late, and he appears to be fully healthy again.

The temperature should stay in the 70's at Fenway for this one which helps.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Indiana Fever are a strong over team, especially on their home floor. Indiana is averaging 98.4 points per game at home this season. New York is second in the WNBA in points per game on the road at 91.5 points per game away from home. 

Caitlin Clark went off on Friday night. There is some chance she will sit out or have some minutes restriction in this game. The Fever are averaging 94 points per game in the games Clark doesn't play too, and the pace has been quick. 

The last time these two met the teams combined to go 10/43 from 3 point range and 40% and 36% overall from the floor. These are two efficient offenses and I don't think they'll shoot the ball that poorly again.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Connecticut Sun and Portland Fire have met twice this year. The finals in those games were 83-82 (165) and 71-61 (132). The pace has stayed slow in both games.

Connecticut is dead last in the WNBA in offensive efficiency. Portland is 11th in offensive efficiency. These teams are no strangers to games where we see some pretty bad shooting percentages. 

This is a rare very early start time. An 11 am eastern start time which would be a 8 am body clock time for Portland. The earliest of start times have trended under pretty strongly in the WNBA in the last decade.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Phoenix Mercury upgraded Thomas to probable for this game, which is big news for their scoring ability. Phoenix is coming off a really poor shooting game, but the Fever are a poor defense and they push the pace. Indiana plays at the fastest pace in the WNBA. 

Caitlin Clark will miss this game, but Boston is back for the Fever. Indiana has played some very high scoring games without Clark this year, and the total has been adjusted down quite a bit. 

Phoenix has been a good over team at home, and they have a good match here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LA Sparks defense has been dreadful of late. They have allowed 97 points or more in four straight games. The Sparks have the worst defense in the WNBA.

The first meeting between these two came up just short of this total, but both teams shot the ball poorly. The teams were a combined 18/64 (28%) from 3 point range. They both average 39 percent from 3 point range for the season.

This is a rare chance for the Storm to play well on offense. The Sparks are a better than average offensive team who pushes the pace too.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Toronto Blue Jays offense has been atrocious of late. Toronto is struggling to put anything together. They go to one of the most pitcher friendly ballparks in the league here. 

Seattle has been a huge disappointment on offense. They had a big game yesterday, but against Trey Yesavage who I rate very highly, I don't trust Seattle without Rodriguez. 

Yesavage has good command of multiple pitches and usually avoids giving up the big inning. 

Emerson Hancock has good stuff, and I think he is a breakout candidate in the next year. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians did get De Lauter back, but Jose Ramirez is still out and this is still a bottom five offense in the majors. They have hit the ball a bit better of late, but I don't trust this lineup to be consistent. 

The White Sox lineup has the highest batting average on balls in play during the last seven days. They have been very fortunate with those batted balls of late. Gavin Williams is a good starting pitcher who does a good job keeping the ball and inducing soft contact on the ground.

The total of 8.5 is pretty high for a game with one of the offenses being one of the weakest in the majors. Cleveland also has a really good bullpen.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Kansas City Royals have a top six offense in baseball when at home, and a lot of that performance has come of late in the hot air in Kansas City. The Royals have seen six of their last seven games finish at 11 runs or more. Three of their last four have finished at 14 runs or more. 

Shane McClanahan has really struggled of late. He has a 4.94 ERA and a 5.71 xERA in his last five starts. McClanahan has allowed a whopping .383 wOBA against this KC lineup.

Seth Lugo has allowed a very high .389 wOBA against this Rays lineup. Lugo isn't the pitcher he was a few seasons ago.

The weather calls for 90 degrees and winds out about 13 mph at game time here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Wrigley Field is changed by the winds as much as any park in the majors. That is especially true when the temperature is hot. The forecast here calls for 91 degrees and winds blowing out to center at 16 mph. The ball should be jumping in this one.

Walker Buehler has pitched pretty well of late, but this is the toughest situation he has pitched in for quite a while. The Cubs lineup has a solid .338 wOBA against Buehler. 

Colin Rea has allowed a .381 wOBA against this Padres lineup. Rea is really up against it in this one. The Padres have hit right handed pitching much better than lefties.

Both of these pitchers have much worse ERA's in day baseball games, and the situation here is very tough.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Mackenzie Gore has pitched well this season. He has also pitched deep into the game on a regular basis. 

The Cleveland Guardians offense is likely the worst in baseball without their top two hitters. Cleveland really struggles to string together hits. 

Joey Cantillo has been excellent in his last three starts. The Rangers are a below average lineup, and they haven't hit lefties very well this season.

It is hot for this one, but the winds are blowing in a bit. The home plate umpire is a pitcher friendly umpire.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Wrigley Field is the most weather dependent baseball park in the majors. The weather here calls for a game time temperature in the upper 80's and winds blowing out at about 11 mph. This is a big plus for the over. 

Shota Imanaga starts for the Cubs here, and he has allowed 15 home runs in his last seven starts. Imanaga is an extreme fly ball pitcher, and he has struggled badly when pitching at Wrigley with the wind blowing out.

Griffin Canning starts for the Padres. Canning has a 7.38 ERA and a 5.42 FIP. Canning is allowing 1.69 home runs per nine innings. He is giving up loads of hard contact. 

The Cubs offense has come alive in the last couple weeks. I see them getting to Canning in this one.

Both bullpens have been heavily used of late.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Seattle Mariners have scored 3 runs or less in 12 straight games. Seattle's offense is in a really bad funk. Cleveland is a relatively pitcher friendly park, and the wind is expected to be blowing in at 10-12 mph during this one. 

Slade Cecconi has a 2.91 ERA and a 3.45 FIP in his last eight starts. He has done a good job keeping the ball in the ballpark and his walk rate is pretty low.

Logan Gilbert is a really good right handed starter. He has an ERA below 2 in his last six starts. The Guardians are without their top two hitters right now. This Cleveland lineup in its current state is definitely a bottom five lineup in the majors.

Both bullpens are in pretty good shape coming into this one too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Nationals are easily first in the majors in both wOBA and wRC+ against left handed pitching. These young Nationals hitters have teed off on lefties all season long. Luzardo is a good pitcher, but he is prone to giving up big innings and these Nationals hit for power.

Poulin is the opener here for Littell. Littell is in the bottom 1% of all pitchers in the majors in both average exit velocity allowed and expected ERA. The Phillies are averaging 6.6 runs per game in their last seven games. The offense is waking up of late. Littell has very poor numbers against this Phillies lineup in his career.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Bobby Witt is injured and is doubtful to play in this one. The Royals piled up some runs in their home series against the Cardinals this past weekend, but they were right back to struggling on the road last night. The Royals are 28th in weighted on base average so far this season when playing away from home.

Shane McClanahan was shaky last game, but that was against an elite Dodgers offense. This Kansas City offense especially if they are without Witt is one of the weakest in baseball. 

The Tampa Bay offense is 24th in the majors in wOBA in the last month. Tampa Bay has scored 4 runs or fewer in six of their last seven games. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Twins are first in the majors in wOBA in the last two weeks. Minnesota has averaged 9.2 runs per game in their last five games. This team is really hitting for power of late. 

The LA Dodgers are first in the majors in wOBA for the season. The Dodgers lineup is deep and loaded with power and versatility. 

Eric Lauer has pitched a bit better of late, but he has faced terrible lineups. This is the toughest test he has had in quite some time. Lauer has allowed the Twins lineup to have a .470 weighted on base average against him. In just 62 at bats, the Twins have 7 home runs against Lauer.

Zebby Matthews has thrown against a lot of weak lineups lately as well. The Dodgers are clearly a huge test. Matthews doesn't walk many hitters, but he also allows hard hit batted balls and doesn't miss many bats.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Chris Sale isn't quite as dominant as he once was, but he is still a really good left handed starting pitcher. Sale has a terrific 2.30 ERA and a 2.81 FIP on the season. Sale has done a great job keeping his average exit velocity allowed down. He is in the top 13% of all pitchers in baseball in that area. He is in the top 6% of all pitchers in chase rate. His slider is still one of the best pitches in baseball.

Kyle Harrison had one bad start in Las Vegas against the Athletics. That is a really bad park for pitchers. Harrison has been absolutely superb outside of that start. He has a 2.47 ERA, and Harrison is racking up nearly 11 strikeouts per nine innings pitched. The Braves offense has slumped badly of late, and that has been especially true against left handed pitching. Atlanta is clearly missing Ronald Acuna Jr. 

Ron Kulpa is the home plate umpire here and he is one of the best under umpires in the majors.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Twins offense is red hot of late. The Twins have scored 5 runs or more in 5 of their last 6 games. They are averaging 8.33 runs per game in their last three games. Mike Soroka has been good for the DBacks this year, but the advanced metrics believe he is due for some regression and the DBacks bullpen is slightly below average.

Arizona is top six in the majors in wOBA and wRC+ against lefties. The DBacks should get plenty of scoring chances against Prielipp here. The Twins bullpen is a big weakness too, and they will likely need to be used for quite a while in this one.

This total is set a little too low with the question marks for the pitching staffs.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Shane McClanahan has been tremendous in his comeback so far this season. He has allowed 13 runs in his last nine starts. McClanahan has elite stuff and his offspeed pitches move about as much as you'll see from anyone. 

Shohei Ohtani has been spectacular on the mound this season. He has started 11 games. He has allowed one run or fewer in 8 of his 11 games started this season. Ohtani just allowed more than 2 runs for the first time this season. Ohtani is in a good bounce back spot here against a Rays offense that has gone ice cold in recent contests.

This is an awkward start time in LA. The early start on get away day could lead to a couple key bats being out of the lineup. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Houston Astros are 7th in wOBA and 6th in wRC+ against left handed pitching. The Astros have a lot of guys who match up well against Framber Valdez. Valdez has far worse advanced metrics this year. He ranks in the bottom 30% of all pitchers in almost all the major statistics. His old team has a strong lineup and they should get to him in this one.

Hunter Brown is coming off the injured list for this start. Brown is likely to be on a pitch count and not pitch as deep as normal into the game. The Astros bullpen is 25th in the majors in FIP and 26th in the majors in SIERA this season. It's a clear weakness. 

The Tigers offense has scored 9 runs or more in three of their last six games. 

This total is set extremely low for a game with this many pitching question marks. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LA Dodgers are tied for second in Major League Baseball averaging 5.36 runs per game. Tampa Bay's offense has slumped a bit lately, but they do have some power and some guys who hit lefties very well.

Eric Lauer has really bad advanced numbers. Lauer is in the bottom 15% of all pitchers in expected ERA and in the bottom 19% of all pitchers in expected batting average this season. Lauer has been fortunate in recent games, but he shouldn't be trusted. Lauer has allowed this Rays lineup to hit for a whopping .422 weighted on base average in 60 plate appearances too.

Nick Martinez is in the bottom 8% of all pitchers in expected batting average this year. He is in the bottom 3% of all pitchers in strikeout percentage. This Dodgers lineup has great numbers against him, and it should be hard for him to navigate through this lineup without strikeout stuff.

Both bullpens rank in the bottom ten in ERA allowed in the last month as well as FIP. They are below average units.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Cristopher Sanchez has pitched like the best pitcher in the majors this year. He is in the top 1% of all pitchers in chase rate. He has allowed three runs in his last seven starts combined. Sanchez should pile up the strikeouts here. 

Kyle Harrison has a 1.50 ERA at home this season. He is coming off a really poor outing against the Athletics on the road, but that is a really tough park for pitchers. He should look a lot better when he is back in Milwaukee.

Both of these offenses have been below average against left handed pitching this year. I think both teams will struggle to string together hits in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Ranger Suarez has a 2.61 ERA and a 2.15 FIP in his last seven starts. The Texas offense is below average against left handed pitching.

Boston is a top 6 offense in baseball against left handed pitching, but they are 27th in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. Jacob Degrom is still a very solid right handed starter, and I think he can get through this order pretty well.

Both of these bullpens are pretty solid. The weather is warm here and that's why this total has ticked up, but I like the pitching advantages. The wind is expected to be blowing sideways during this game.

Take the under.