*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Bengals are allowing 6.1 yards per play in their last three games. The Panthers easily moved the ball on them. The Commanders dominated this defense. The Ravens torched this defense. 

I'm not going to pretend the New York Giants without Nabers are as good as the Commanders or Ravens on offense. I still think they can score enough here though. The Bengals only have one defensive linemen (Hendrickson) getting any pressure right now. The Bengals secondary lost Dax Hill to injury and he was playing the best of anyone in this secondary.

On the other side, the Bengals offense is rolling of late. Cincinnati is averaging 6.7 yards per play in their last three games (3rd best in the NFL). Joe Burrow is having a special season and he has his full group of wide receivers healthy now. Erick All Jr. has been a nice addition to the offense at tight end. I don't think the Giants have the secondary to consistently slow down this Bengals passing attack.

The scoring in the NFL was up quite a bit last week. Getting the ball on the 30 yard line on kickoffs is a clear help to the offenses. This is a low total for a Bengals game with no apparent weather issues. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Both of these teams have been in some very high scoring games this year. Washington State went to overtime at 46-46 against San Jose State. They lost 45-24 to Boise State. They also beat Portland State 70-30. 

Fresno State just lost 59-14 to UNLV. The Bulldogs beat Sacramento State 46-30. They gave up 485 yards of offense to New Mexico as well in a game that probably should have been higher scoring than it was. 

Washington State is 2nd in the country in explosiveness on offense. They have a great offensive coordinator in Arbuckle. They play at the 18th quickest tempo in the country. 

Fresno State plays at a quicker than average pace as well. They have been pretty good through the air this season. Washington State's safeties are a weakness. Defensively, Washington State is 117th in explosiveness allowed.

The weather here looks good and I like this to be a high scoring game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Old Dominion isn't very good, but they sure do play extremely fast. They are the second fastest paced team in the country this year. Old Dominion had a low scoring game against S Carolina early, but of late they have had higher scores. Colton Joseph has come in and played well at quarterback in relief of Grant Wilson. 

The Monarchs lost 45-37 at Coastal Carolina last week. Old Dominion had their best offensive game of the season thus far in that game. Old Dominion also put up 30 points in a win at Bowling Green two games ago.

Georgia State is playing faster than I expected this year. They are 42nd out of 134 teams in tempo. Georgia State is airing it out too. Old Dominion has a bottom 20 pass rush and a bottom ten tackling grade in the country. They have both starting safeties banged up- those guys missed the second half of last week and are questionable here. The Panthers should move the ball through the air.

Both defenses are far worse than average in explosiveness allowed. A lot of possessions here and some explosive plays. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* This isn't really a game I expected to bet on, but the line is just showing too much value for me to pass it up.

Rutgers gave up more than 500 yards to Washington and was fortunate to allow only 18 points in that game. The Scarlet Knights then gave up only 14 to Nebraska, but that game was played in a windstorm that absolutely limited the points in that contest. 

Rutgers has been poor against the run this year. The Scarlet Knights are 116th in rushing play success rate allowed. They are 113th in defensive line yards allowed. I think Wisconsin with their 31st rushing play success rate on offense can have success here.

The Wisconsin defense has gotten much worse. They are 71st in yards per play allowed. They are 95th in defensive line yards, and the Rutgers ground attack should get going here.

Rutgers has gotten decent quarterback play from Kaliakmanis which is an upgrade from their QB play the last couple years.

The weather here looks good. 

I think the recent low scoring games for Rutgers has made this total too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Ball State Cardinals defense is next level bad. Ball State is allowing 8.22 yards per play on the season. They have given up at least 34 points in every game so far this year. That includes allowing 34 against SE Missouri State and 37 against a poor Central Michigan offense. 

The Ball State offense has come to life of late. They played some good defenses earlier in the year, but Ball State put up 6.0 yards per play and 42 points on Western Michigan last week. I think their passing attack can have success here.

Kent State's defense is awful too. They are 131st in the nation (134 teams) in yards per play allowed, QBR allowed, and YPC allowed. The Kent State offense has been weak overall, but they showed signs of life last game in scoring 33 points against Eastern Michigan. Now, they face the worst defense they have played all season.

These are two really bad teams, but I think the two defenses are so bad that there will be quite a bit of scoring here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers defense has been very weak so far this year. They are 95th in success rate allowed. They rank 129th in tackling grade at PFF. The Chanticleers have faced Virginia and Old Dominion in their last two games. Virginia rolled up 525 yards and 43 points. A bad Old Dominion offense put up 462 yards and 37 points on the Chanticleers. 

James Madison has been excellent on offense this year. The Dukes are coming off a rare poor offensive performance against an upstart UL Monroe team. I think James Madison can get it back going again in this matchup. The Dukes are 30th in yards per play this year. They are 22nd in the country in explosiveness on offense. Alonza Barnett is a great dual threat at quarterback and I expect him to have a big game here.

Coastal Carolina has a good offensive scheme. The Chanticleers put up 45 points on a pretty good Old Dominion defense this past weekend. They had 6.7 yards per play against Virginia in the previous game as well. 

James Madison really hasn't faced many good offenses. They played Charlotte with half the 49ers team injured. They played Gardner Webb. They played Ball State. Even with this weak schedule of opponents, the Dukes rank 98th in tackling grade this year.

James Madison plays at a pretty quick pace and I like both offenses to have success here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Orleans Saints and Kansas City Chiefs have loads of injuries on offense. Rashee Rice was injured this past Sunday and he will miss significant time with what appears to be a major knee injury. Rice had been Patrick Mahomes' favorite target by a wide margin this year. Pacheco is still out for the Chiefs as is Hollywood Brown. 

On the Saints side, Kamara is playing with injured ribs. Chris Olave has an injured foot. Taysom Hill was banged up too. The offensive line is badly banged up. The Chiefs defensive front should be in the backfield a lot here.

Steve Spagnuolo is an excellent defensive coordinator who will put a lot of heat on Derek Carr. Carr is good with time, but under pressure looks very poor much of the time. 

Dennis Allen is a defensive minded coach and his teams games have gone under the total at a rate higher than 56% in his time in the league.

The Chiefs have been a very good under team when they are favored, especially playing at home.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Broncos defense has been the best defense in the NFL so far this season. Early in the season it was easy to doubt them, but the Broncos have proven it now in multiple spots. They held a pretty good Jets rushing attack to just 64 rushing yards last week. They held Tampa Bay to 7 points two weeks ago. They held the Jets to 9 points last week.

Denver plays at a slow pace on offense and they don't take many shots down the field with Bo Nix. Nix had only 60 yards passing on 25 pass attempts last week. The Broncos are 29th in the NFL in yards per play.

Las Vegas held Cleveland to just 4.2 yards per play last week. The Raiders offense has been inconsistent at best. They don't have enough threats down the field. 

I see this as a buttoned up game where there a lot of runs and short passes. Three Denver games in a row have stayed under this very low total. I think this will be a fourth straight.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Texas Tech Red Raiders are an over team. Texas Tech is playing at a top 15 tempo in the country. They are also throwing it on 55% of their offensive plays. Behren Morton is more than capable of throwing a pick six with some of the dangerous throws he makes, but he will also impress with some great ones. Tahj Brooks is one of the most underrated running backs in the country. 

Arizona's Noah Fifita is an excellent quarterback. He makes good decisions and has a 90.0 PFF passer rating so far this year, which is excellent. He has one of the best wide receivers in the country in McMillan, and no one in the Texas Tech secondary has much of a chance of even slowing him down.

These two teams are 15th (Tech) and 4th (Arizona) in explosiveness in the country. There should be a lot of big plays from both offenses. Texas Tech is 115th in explosiveness allowed on defense and Arizona is 49th.

Three of Texas Tech's five games this year have gotten to at least 85 points total. I think this one will be another high scoring affair.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Ball State Cardinals defense is next level terrible. Ball State is 133rd in the country in yards per play allowed this year. They are giving up a mind boggling 8.65 yards per play. Ball State has allowed 39 plays of 20 yards or more already this year. 

Ball State has allowed a minimum of 34 points in every game this year. Missouri State scored 34 points. Central Michigan scored 37 points. Miami scored 62 points on them. James Madison scored 63 points on them. 

Western Michigan is 112th in the nation in yards per play allowed. They are 121st in success rate allowed. Ball State has faced some pretty good defenses in Miami and James Madison. Western Michigan is a clear step down from them. I think the Ball State passing attack should be able to do some work here.

Western Michigan's ground attack will be too good for Ball State. Western Michigan is just 28% on 3rd down so far this year, but I expect that to improve. The Broncos have played very good defenses this year. Now, they play arguably the worst defense in the country.

The weather looks good for Saturday here with clear skies forecast and a temperature in the 70's with 4 mph wind.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* I have been extremely impressed by Northern Illinois on the defensive end this year. Northern Illinois allowed just 286 yards and 4.7 yards per play against Notre Dame. They allowed just 184 yards and 3.4 YPP despite an overtime against Buffalo. They allowed just 171 yards and 3.6 YPP against NC State last weekend.

UMass has struggled offensively because they just don't have enough of a running game. Northern Illinois has an excellent secondary and the Huskies should be in the backfield quite a bit in this one.

The UMass defense is much improved this year. They only allowed 258 yards against a good Toledo offense. They allowed just 349 yards and 5.7 YPP in overtime against Miami last week. 

The pace of this game should be extremely slow. Both teams are slow pace wise and aren't typically very explosive on offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Atlanta Braves have played a lot of baseball the last few days. They are going to need Max Fried to pitch deep into this game. Fried does have a good history against this San Diego Padres lineup. Fried has a pretty good weighted on base average allowed of .298 against this lineup. Fried also finished the season strong. He had a 2.14 ERA in his last five starts of the season. 

Joe Musgrove has been in fantastic form to finish the season. Musgrove has a 2.15 ERA in his last nine starts (since he came back from injury). He allowed 0 or 1 earned run in six of nine starts during that time. Musgrove has even better numbers against this Braves lineup. He has a .282 wOBA allowed against these Braves.

Phil Cuzzi is the home plate umpire here. He is one of the best under umpires in baseball. The under is 50-35 in his games in the last three years. He has one of the highest strikeout/walk rates of any umpire. There's only been an average of 5.4 walks per game in games he has been umpire in this season.

With this being a crucial game in a short series, both teams will use their best bullpen arms.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Commanders haven't punted in their last two games. Jayden Daniels and this Washington Commanders offense have made it to where Tress Way hasn't been needed in the punting game. Jayden Daniels has been clutch with his throwing ability on the deep ball and using his legs a lot as well. He is the ultimate dual threat quarterback.

Arizona's Kyler Murray is finally fully healthy again too and he is playing much better. It helps him to have improved weapons on the outside. The Cardinals are 9th in the NFL in yards per play so far this season. 

These two defenses are both subpar. There just isn't that much talent on either stop unit. Arizona is 19th in yards per play allowed, but I expect that number to get worse throughout the year as well. Washington is second to last in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Bengals put up 7.3 yards per play on them last week.

This one being played in a dome with the total coming down to the key number of 49, I like the value to the over. I see both offenses having big play ability throughout. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* There should be a bunch of tempo in this game. Washington State 13th in tempo in the country. Boise State 41st despite playing from the lead much of the time.

Ashton Jeanty is the best running back in the country. Boise State has an unreal six rushing plays of 60 yards or more already this season! They are averaging 8.81 yards per carry. Washington State has had significant trouble defending the run. The Cougars are 107th in the nation in YPC allowed and they have allowed 22 rushes for 10 yards or more already this season.

John Mateer has been good for Washington State. The Cougars have scored 37 points or more in three games already this year. Washington State is going against a Boise State defense that isn't very good. The Broncos are 78th in success rate allowed and 119th in explosiveness allowed.

These two teams are first (Washington State) and tenth (Boise State) in explosiveness on offense. Both of them are top 40 tempo teams too. A lot of pace and explosiveness in this one. The weather forecast looks great with virtually no wind also.

Take the over.

*3 Star Play Under* The Troy Trojans are 102nd in the nation in tempo. That is despite the fact that they have been playing from behind a lot this year. UL Monroe is 132nd out of 134 teams in the country in tempo. The Warhawks clearly want to play very slowly. 

UL Monroe has just 3 plays of 30 yards or more this season. This offense isn't explosive at all. Troy is 83rd in offensive success rate. The Trojans are just 100th in rushing play success rate on offense. 

UL Monroe has done a good job keeping everything in front of them. They have allowed only 3 plays of 30 yards or more on defense despite playing Texas and UAB. 

These are two teams who are limited on offense and struggle to punch it in once they get into the red zone. The tempo that this game will be played at means there shouldn't be very many possessions.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kent State Golden Flashes lost two quarterbacks for the season in last week's game against Penn State. Ulatowski will start here because he really is the only option. Ulatowski has been dealing with a finger injury too, and he isn't 100 percent healthy. Even when everyone is healthy this is a terrible offense. Kent State averages 1.67 yards per carry on the season. The Golden Flashes have no explosiveness. They have only 7 plays of 20 yards or more in four games.

Eastern Michigan is typically a conservative team who likes to win lower scoring contests under Chris Creighton. Eastern Michigan is 107th in explosiveness in the country, so the Eagles aren't breaking many big gainers either. Eastern Michigan is averaging just 2.90 yards per carry. 

Last year these two met and it was 28-14 with low offensive success rates. I see Kent State being ultra conservative here with no playmakers and a hurt quarterback. Eastern Michigan should play from the lead and slow things down too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The James Madison Dukes just score 70 points in an epic 70-50 win over the North Carolina Tar Heels. James Madison has found a really good quarterback in Alonza Barnett. He can win with him arm or his legs at any time. 

James Madison is 21st in the country in explosiveness on offense. The Dukes have had a nice balance of run and passing success.

Ball State ranks dead last in the country in total defense so far this year. The Cardinals are atrocious against the run. They just allowed Central Michigan to run for 335 yards last game, and the Chippewas aren't a rushing powerhouse by any means. Ball State allowed 34 points against Missouri State (FCS). James Madison should put up a big number here.

Ball State has picked up the pace a bit. They are throwing it around and Kadin Semonza is at least a decent quarterback. They did win big, but James Madison allowed UNC's Criswell to throw for 475 yards.

Ball State is giving up 8.88 yards per play which is just crazy. This total is several points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Navy Midshipmen rushing attack is much more dynamic this year than it was last season. Navy has seen all 3 games go over the posted total. Navy has reached 49 points, 38 points, and 56 points by themselves on offense in their three contests. They are averaging 6.45 yards per carry on the season. Navy ran for 361 yards against Memphis last week in a 56-44 win.

UAB plays at a quick pace. The Blazers are 26th in the nation in tempo. UAB has a solid quarterback in Zeno. They should get some decent chances against a Navy team that is weakest in the secondary. 

UAB defensively is 102nd in the nation in yards per carry allowed. They were beaten badly on the ground by UL Monroe.

Navy is playing at a faster pace than they have in recent seasons. They aren't breaking any records, but they are no longer playing at an extremely slow pace. Navy already has 12 plays of 30 yards or more on the season too.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Buffalo Bulls upset the Northern Illinois Huskies on Saturday 23-02, but Buffalo couldn't do anything on offense in that game. They finished with just 184 total yards. Buffalo is averaging only 4.5 yards per play on the season. The Bulls are 122nd in the nation in offensive success rate. 

UConn just ran for 421 yards against Florida Atlantic this past weekend. I wouldn't expect a repeat here. UConn only ran for 88 yards against Maryland. They only had 4.6 yards per play overall against Duke. 

Defensively, Buffalo has been elite at preventing big plays. Opponents have only two plays of 30 yards or more all season against the Bulls.

Both of these teams are running the football on about 65% of their offensive plays. Both of these teams have the ability to get into the backfield and get the opposition behind the chains at times. 

A lot of running and the clock moving quickly here.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is a low total, but both of these teams have a recent history of a bunch of low scoring games. In the Rays last 12 games, 10 of them have stayed under 7.5 runs. In the Tigers last 12 games, 8 of them have stayed under the total. 

Brian O'Nora is the umpire behind home plate here. He is one of the best under umpires in baseball. He is 17-9 to the under this year and his strikeout/walk ratio of 3.17 is one of the highest in the majors. He is ringing up batters on close pitches. 

The Rays are a bottom five offense against right handed pitching. The Tigers are a bottom five offense against left handed pitching. These are based off year to date numbers in weighted on base average. 

Temperatures in the low to mid 70's are pretty moderate and the wind is blowing sideways for this one.

I like these teams to continue their recent under trends.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Royals offense has been abysmal of late. How bad? Kansas City has scored a grand total of 5 runs in their last six games! Kansas City has been second to worst in the majors in wOBA in the last 30 days. Only the White Sox have been worse on offense. That's some bad company to be in.

The Washington Nationals offense has been struggling as well. The Nationals have scored one run or fewer in six of their last eight games. This is an offense that just isn't stringing together good at bats.

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire for this game. Eddings is arguably the best under umpire in baseball. He is calling the highest percentage of strikes of any umpire in the majors this year. Long term he has done this year after year. Eddings has had a high strikeout/walk ratio consistently year after year.

Herz has a 3.78 ERA at home this year and his performance since the break has been very good. Michael Lorenzen has been solid this year for the Royals as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Lions more than doubled the Tampa Bay Bucs in yardage last week. They just couldn't take advantage of their scoring opportunities. They moved the ball well between the 20's. I think Jared Goff and this Lions offense are a tough matchup for Arizona on the fast track here. The Cardinals defense is below average and I think they lack the playmakers in the secondary to keep the Lions quiet throughout this game. 

Arizona looks like a completely different offense this year. It is evident that Kyler Murray is much healthier than he was last year. He looks like a completely different quarterback. It sure helps to add a star wide receiver in Marvin Harrison Jr. as well. James Conner is running it well also.

Both of these teams have coaches who are willing to be aggressive at times on offense in late downs and I think that is a benefit to the over in this game. 

I see plenty of big plays both ways.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Carolina Panthers have made the move to Andy Dalton. If they wanted to be competitive, they had to make the move. Bryce Young was just struggling far too much. We saw the market react by moving toward Carolina and the over as soon as the move was announced. I think that is justified. Andy Dalton is one of the best backup quarterbacks in the NFL.

Gardner Minshew and the Raiders aren't great, but they are good enough against subpar secondaries like Carolina.

This is a very low total for a game with two poor defenses involved. The two teams are both bottom 10 defenses in the league. They are 25th and 27th in the league in yards per play allowed thus far.

Early in the season (September/October) when we see totals of 42.5 or lower in a non divisional game the over has been a great move in the last decade. This particular game is an even stronger over system with this one being played inside at Allegiant Stadium.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Toledo Rockets just destroyed Mississippi State in Starkville this past weekend. Nothing about their win looked like a fluke. Their offensive was humming. Now, the Mississippi State defense is certainly bad, but it was still impressive for a MAC school against an SEC team.

Western Kentucky brought in backup quarterback Veltkamp last week in their win over MTSU after Finley was injured. Veltkamp went a whopping 27/30 for 398 yards passing and 5 TD's/0 INT's. A ridiculous line. 

On the other side, Western Kentucky allowed a really bad MTSU offense to put up 9.5 yards per play on them. The Blue Raiders were slinging it around in the second half with very little defense at all holding them back. I think Toledo's Gleason will have a lot of success throwing it here.

Toledo's tempo was slower last week because they were blowing out Miss State, but they have generally been top 35 in the nation in tempo. Western Kentucky is 34th in tempo. There should be a lot of possessions in this game with both offenses being pretty explosive as well.

I see the offenses having the upper hand. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The N Texas defense- it’s nearly impossible to say anything nice about them. Gave up 7.1 YPP to S Bama and 8.3 YPP to Tex Tech. N Texas was an over train last year and I don’t see anything to make me think they are anything different this year. 116th in explosiveness allowed.

Wyoming's offense is bad, but this will be the worst defense they have faced yet. On the other side though, the Wyoming defense is MUCH worse than expected. They allowed 6.8 YPP against BYU. They allowed 7.0 YPP against Arizona State even though the Sun Devils shut it down in the 4th quarter. We aren’t accustomed to seeing bad Wyoming defenses, but it looks like this group is weak.

Chandler Morris is an over quarterback. He will hit some big gainers but could throw a pick six at any time.

Another plus in this one is the game time temperature of 92 degrees. Those very hot temperatures have been good to over bettors in the past. The defenses can have a tough time tackling in the heat.

Take the over here.

*3 Star Play Over* The East Carolina Pirates are first in the nation in tempo. They are going to get a lot of plays off and very quickly. Liberty plays at about an average pace, but they are well known for their explosive plays with Salter at quarterback and Chadwell as a bright offensive mind at coach.

East Carolina has had major trouble with turnovers and red zone efficiency on offense this year. If those can regress toward the mean, the Pirates have the ability to score a lot of points with the pace they are playing at. Liberty's biggest weakness by far is their secondary, and East Carolina is going to throw the ball early and often.

East Carolina is good on the defensive front, but the Pirates secondary can be beaten. I expect Salter to be able to create some plays with his legs and his arm in this one.

I had this number a good amount higher than this total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Colorado State Rams offense has been a huge disappointment so far this year. Colorado State was shut out by Texas which is at least somewhat understandable. They were also held to only 9 points by Colorado, and the Buffaloes defense is only mediocre. 

Tory Horton is reportedly doubtful for this game. Horton is easily the best player on this Colorado State offense, and with him slowed down or not playing at all, this offense isn't even close to the same. Fowler-Nicolosi is still young and the running game hasn't been consistent. 

UTEP is 108th in the nation in yards per play on offense. They haven't had much of an identity on offense so far this year. The Miners only put up 10 points on Liberty and could only score 24 against Southern Utah in an overtime game.

These two offenses are near the bottom of the nation in explosiveness on the season thus far.

The weather on Saturday in Fort Collins is notable too. The current average of four weather forecasts calls for 18 mph winds with gusts of about 33 mph during this game. There is a chance for showers as well. This kind of wind can really change a game and make the play calling more conservative.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Buffalo Bulls have a new coach in Pete Lembo. He is a defensive minded coach, and Buffalo's secondary is a clear strength. The Bulls still have to find an identity on offense though. 

Buffalo is terrible on the offensive line. The Bulls also have big weaknesses at both the quarterback and running back positions. The overall lack of talent on this offense is striking. Buffalo scored 0 against Missouri earlier this year. They just scored 34 against UMass, but had just 5.2 yards per play in that game. 

Northern Illinois is coming off that huge win at Notre Dame. I'm really impressed with the coaching staff of the Huskies and their strength on the defensive line. Northern Illinois plays at a slow pace. They are 107th in the nation in tempo so far this year. 

Both of these teams run the ball about 64% of the time on offense. There should be a lot of moving clock and I wouldn't expect many possessions in this game. 

I think both defenses can prevent the explosive plays quite well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boston Red Sox host the Minnesota Twins at Fenway Park on Friday night. The weather here is interesting with a temperature of just 61 degrees when this game gets started. There is a big system just off the coast that has led to a lot of wind and rain in and near Boston. The forecast for Friday night calls for winds of about 15 mph blowing straight in at Fenway. Cool temperatures and wind blowing in to that extent is a big help for an under.

Minnesota starts David Festa here. He has good stuff, but has been inconsistent this year. He does sometimes give up the big inning. 

Richard Fitts makes his third start for the Red Sox here. He has allowed no runs in each of his first two starts. 

This is a big game for both teams with the Twins in a Wild Card spot and the Red Sox still within reach if they get red hot right now. Both teams will use their bullpen aggressively in this important of a game. 

With a relatively high total and this weather- I'm on the under here. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians have seen six straight games stay under this total. The Guardians offense is below average against right handed pitching, but they have a great pitching staff and the best bullpen in the majors. Cleveland is a dangerous team in the playoffs because of their ability to shut the opposition down.

Bailey Ober has been throwing the ball really well for the Twins. Ober has a 3.90 ERA on the year and a 3.21 expected ERA. He has a 3.42 ERA in his last 12 starts. He ranks in the top ten percent of all pitchers in baseball in chase rate, so he is getting batters to swing at a lot of tough pitches outside the zone.

Tanner Bibee has a 3.60 ERA and a 3.65 FIP on the season. He has elite breaking stuff and he does a good job limiting walks.

Ober and Bibee have fantastic numbers against the opposition in this game. Ober has a .253 weighted on base average allowed in 84 plate appearances against this Guardians lineup. Bibee has a .269 weighted on base average allowed in 94 plate appearances against this Twins lineup.

This is a crucial game for both teams so I expect all the best bullpen arms to be available.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians are 21st and the Minnesota Twins are 24th in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 30 days. These two offenses have struggled quite a bit coming down the stretch.

The Guardians still have the best bullpen in baseball. That is a great weapon for them to have in key games for the last few innings. Matthew Boyd starts here too, and he has allowed one earned run or fewer in all but one of his starts for the Tribe this year (6 starts). Boyd has done his very best work at home with a 1.56 ERA and a .171 wOBA allowed.

Pablo Lopez struggled in the first half of the season, but Lopez has a 1.93 ERA since the All Star Break. 

Both of these teams have some key bats banged up right now and that has hurt their lineup depth quite a bit.

This is a pitcher friendly park overall, especially with more moderate temperatures and winds blowing in like we will see on Monday night.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tampa Bay Bucs have major cluster injury issues in the secondary. They have four defensive backs injured. The Bucs secondary has some pretty good pieces to start with, but they lack depth. I think that will show in this one. 

Detroit has the weapons to take advantage of this weakness especially on the fast track in Detroit. Jared Goff with St. Brown and Sam Laporta and company should have a big game here. The Lions also have a good running attack. Detroit has great balance as an offense.

The Tampa Bay offense put up 37 points last week. Baker Mayfield has talked about feeling great in new OC Liam Coen's scheme. The Bucs have really underrated weapons on the outside. Mike Evans is a star and is a tough cover for anyone. Godwin is more of a possession receiver, but he comes up with big plays. White is an explosive back too. 

The Lions defense really struggled with this Bucs offense in the playoffs last year. That game went over this total. This game means less and with the new rules in the NFL the scoring should be a bit higher.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Mississippi State Bulldogs are a completely different type of team under Jeff Lebby this year. Their goal is to play as quickly as possible and be aggressive on offense. They'll look to throw it around quite a bit. Blake Shapen is a good fit at quarterback for this system. 

Toledo lost a superstar defensive back in Quinyon Mitchell from last year. The Rockets secondary is much weaker than it has been in recent seasons. Toledo is without star LB Gant from last year too. 

Toledo has a good quarterback in Gleason and a really good group of wide receivers. The Rockets should be able to move the ball against a Bulldogs defense that is way down from a year ago as well. 

Both of these teams are ranked in the top 18 in the country in terms of pace of play. There should be a bunch of possessions here.

There is a small chance of some rain during this one, but the winds are very minimal and that is the key. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UAB Blazers just lost 32-6 to ULM last week in an embarrassing performance. UAB's defense is 68th in the nation in yards per carry allowed, and their two opponents played have been Alcorn State and ULM. That's a very weak schedule of rushing attacks. 

Arkansas is coming off a heartbreaking double OT loss against Oklahoma State. Still, the Razorbacks offense showed us a lot in that game. Arkansas put up 648 yards of offense and 7.0 YPP. Taylen Green looks great in Petrino's offense. Arkansas is playing very quickly too. There is no reason to believe UAB can even slow them down in this game.

The Arkansas defense is susceptible against the pass, and I think Zeno and company can do some work through the air here. UAB is a top 30 tempo team, and they will be pushing for extra possessions in this one.

This number has dipped a couple points, and at this number I have to go with the over.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The East Carolina Pirates are playing much faster this year. They are running the air raid and pushing the pace to the extreme. They are 4th in the nation in tempo. East Carolina has turned the ball over quite a bit in opponent territory so far this year, but they have been moving the ball well. East Carolina had 466 yards of offense against a pretty decent Old Dominion defense last week. 

Appalachian State just gave up 66 points to Clemson last week. Cade Klubnik went 24/26 passing against this secondary. They'll look much better in this game than that, but there are troubling signs for the Mountaineers defense overall. 

Appalachian State's offense is excellent in the passing game with Joey Aguilar. They have the best wide receivers in the Sun Belt, and they'll be very tough covers for East Carolina. They are 28th in the nation in tempo so far this year. 

These two teams played last year and Appalachian State won 43-28. Now, East Carolina is playing much quicker than they did a year ago. 

I think this total is set too low by a good amount. Look for a lot of passing and a fast pace. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Marlins have been hitting right handed pitching pretty well lately, but they are still struggling mightily against lefties. They are second to last in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching this year. 

D.J. Herz has a 2.77 ERA and a 2.92 FIP in his last eight starts. He has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in all but one of those starts. Herz has a great 11.08 strikeouts per nine innings rate and he has good control. 

Edward Cabrera started the season slowly for the Marlins, but he has pitched well of late. Cabrera has a 3.13 ERA in 54 and 2/3 innings pitched in the second half of this season. Cabrera has a 2.95 ERA in his last seven starts.

The Washington bullpen is a major league average. The Marlins bullpen is a top six or eight bullpen in the majors.

Reyburn is the home plate umpire here and he is a solid under umpire. The under is 17-9 in his games behind the plate this year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Bobby Miller starts here for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Miller has a 7.79 ERA and a 6.80 FIP on the season. Miller has allowed 8 home runs in his last four starts. He also walks a lot of batters.

Jordan Wicks is a decent young pitcher, but he is up against a really good Dodgers lineup here. Wicks has a .301 weighted on base average allowed at home and a .327 wOBA allowed on the road. 

The Dodgers and Cubs both have deep offenses who have been hot of late. They are both top six in the majors in wOBA in the last 30 days. The Cubs have made a nice little run to be at least in the running the NL Wild Card. The Dodgers have gotten healthier and are a top two or three offense in all of baseball.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers are both in the top five in the majors in weighted on base average in both the last 30 days and last 14 days. These are two deep offenses who don't have many easy outs in the lineup. 

The Cubs struggled offensively against the Yankees in this past series, but they have a much more favorable matchup here. Walker Buehler has come back from a major injury and looked nothing like he did before. Buehler has a 5.67 ERA and his FIP is even worse at 5.98. Buehler has a career low strikeout rate this year and a career high walk rate. He is also giving up loads of home runs. Buehler is giving up 2.17 home runs per nine innings. 

Kyle Hendricks is having a major down season for the Chicago Cubs too. Hendricks has a 6.60 ERA, but his road ERA is 7.89. The Dodgers lineup has smashed him in the past too. This Dodgers lineup has a .354 weighted on base average against Hendricks. Like Buehler, Hendricks has a career high walk rate and a career high home runs allowed rate. 

Dodger Stadium is second in MLB park factors in home runs. Both pitchers allow the long ball at a very high rate, and both teams have a bunch of power.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* I would expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to play slowly, and be very run heavy compared to the average NFL team this year. Pittsburgh brought in Arthur Smith who will lean on the running game. I don't think the running game will be very efficient either. Russell Wilson isn't a good quarterback at this stage of his career either.

Kirk Cousins is coming off a major injury and didn't play any in the preseason. He is likely to have some rust. The Steelers defense is a really tough one to go up against when they are healthy, as they are right now. 

The Falcons defense upgraded by getting Judon in the offseason and locking in two very good safeties. 

I expect this to be slower paced and without fireworks.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Washington State won 70-30 over Portland State last weekend. John Mateer was in a tight quarterback battle with Cam Ward before last year, and Washington State is in pretty good shape at quarterback with him and Eckhaus both in the fold this year. Mateer threw for 352 yards and 5 TD's on just 17 attempts. Washington State put up a whopping 12.5 yards per play in week one.

Texas Tech won 52-51 in overtime over Abilene Christian in week one. They allowed 615 yards to FCS Abilene Christian. This Red Raiders secondary lost a ton from last year, and they allowed more than 500 passing yards to Abilene. 

Ben Arbuckle is a great offensive coordinator and I think Washington State will be ready with tempo and a ton of deep looks down the field against this weakened Texas Tech secondary.

On the other side, Washington State allowed 30 points against Portland state, and this Cougars defense is down a lot from last year. They are bad against the run and Tahj Brooks is a really underrated running back for Texas Tech. Morton is a good passer who should have a big game here.

Who's going to get stops? I don't think there will be very many.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Tennessee Volunteers offense looked like a well oiled machine against Chattanooga last week. Yes it was Chattanooga, but the Mocs are actually a pretty decent FCS team. Nico Iamaleava is a budding star at quarterback. The Volunteers were winning so big that he didn't play a large portion of the game, but when he was in he looked fantastic. Remember, it was Nico who carved up an amazing Iowa defense in the bowl game last year.

Tennessee vowed to play tempo to the extreme this year, and they played ridiculously fast in game one. They averaged just 19.44 seconds between plays, and that is with slowing down some late with a huge lead. They'll push the tempo here.

NC State struggled with Western Carolina. NC State's defense was very poor in that game. In fact, Western Carolina ran for 6.32 yards per carry in that game. Tennessee's offensive line is very good and I think they'll clear quite a few holes here.

The weakness of the Tennessee team is their secondary. The Volunteers will give up big plays through the air. That's exactly where I think McCall and the NC State offense can have success. With NC State likely playing from behind here, I expect them to throw it around and hit some big ones against this Volunteers secondary.

I like both offenses chances of moving the ball a lot in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tulsa Golden Hurricanes and Arkansas State Red Wolves both want to play fast. I expect a bunch of possessions in this game with both teams running their uptempo offense. 

Tulsa put up 62 points on Northwestern State in game one. Francis played very well at quarterback. Arkansas State allowed 7.1 yards per play against Central Arkansas. The Red Wolves defense appears to still have major problems this season.

Arkansas State has a star quarterback in Jalen Raynor. Raynor has good WR's to throw it to, and this Tulsa secondary is a bottom 20 secondary in the country. I think Arkansas State moves the ball well in this one. 

Two defenses who have a history of being weak and giving up a ton of explosive plays. Two offenses who play fast and will take chances down the field. I see a lot of points here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* South Alabama coming off a shootout game against N Texas. They had 582 yards of offense, but still lost by 14 points. The Jaguars ran tempo for much of the game. They averaged only 22 seconds between snaps- very quick. They ran 84 plays in game one. Gio Lopez looks like a pretty decent QB for this S Alabama system. He threw for 432 yards and ran for 62 on 13 carries. Ohio’s secondary is completely new and they were absolutely torched by McCord and Syracuse last week.

Kane Wommack is a great defensive mind, and him being gone hurts South Alabama in a big way. Ohio had 10 rushes for 10 yards or more in game one against Syracuse. I don't think Syracuse's defense is good, but they are better than the South Alabama defense.

South Alabama should push the pace, and Ohio's defense is no longer the stout unit they were in the past. South Alabama gave up 52 points against North Texas.

I think this total is too low.

Take the over.

*4 Star Play Over* The Syracuse Orange showed their improvements on offense last week in their 38-22 win over Ohio. Syracuse averaged 6.86 yards per play. The Orange got a good game out of Kyle McCord. Gadsden is an elite tight end and I expect a big season from him. LeQuint Allen is an underrated running back too. 

For as good as the offense looked for Syracuse, the defense looked that bad. They allowed 6.54 yards per carry against an Ohio running attack that I don't expect to be very good. They were gashed by a team that had very little deep passing attack to keep them honest. The worst news of all for Syracuse was their star Marlowe Wax, the team's best defender, was injured and the coaching staff said they expect him to miss a few weeks.

Georgia Tech played very slowly tempo wise in the game against Florida State as part of the game plan, but they played at a normal pace last week. The Yellow Jackets offense is really tough to defend with an excellent OC in Buster Faulkner and a dual threat quarterback in Haynes King. They should get a lot of big gainers on Syracuse.

The Yellow Jackets defense is still a problem. They played a Florida State offense with issues and then a Georgia State offense that is extremely weak. They still are allowing 4.13 yards per carry. This is a defense I don't trust. 

Syracuse pushed the pace in week one and I think they will here too. Georgia Tech's offensive efficiency should continue.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Florida Atlantic Owls have a terrible offensive line and a subpar quarterback in Cam Fancher. Florida Atlantic is going to struggle badly on offense this year. They put up just 10 points on a Michigan State team that isn't loaded by any means on defense. Florida Atlantic does have a very tough defense with the front seven being a clear strength.

Army used 31 seconds between plays in week one, and they will be one of the slowest paced teams in the country this year. They are expected to be extremely run heavy this year. In their first game, Army attempted 8 passes and ran the ball 46 times. I would expect something similar here unless they get down big early. With the spread inside a field goal, that isn't too likely.

The Army defense could struggle against high powered passing attacks, but Florida Atlantic is definitely not that type of team. 

I think this one will be a tight hard fought battle where the defenses have the advantage. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Los Angeles Dodgers have a top three offense in baseball. They have Mookie Betts back healthy in the fold and that gives them a fearsome top four in the lineup of Ohtani, Betts, Freeman, and Hernandez. 

Griffin Canning is a below average pitcher. He has a 5.19 ERA and a 5.17 FIP on the season. Canning has a terrible history in his small sample size against the Dodgers too. He's allowed 4 home runs and 10 extra base hits in 43 at bats. Hernandez has 4 hits in 6 at bats against him.

Bobby Miller has a 7.25 ERA and a 6.42 FIP on the season. He has an 11.12 ERA on the road. Miller is bottom one percent in all pitchers in baseball in exit velocity allowed. He's not fooling anybody.

Adrian Johnson is a hitter friendly umpire, and he could make a difference in this game.

Both the Angels and Dodgers bullpens rank in the bottom half of the majors in FIP and SIERA over the last 30 days. The Angels dominant reliever Ben Joyce has pitched in three straight games so he might not be called upon in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oakland Athletics offense has been streaky this year, but they have a lot of youngsters who have really been great in the second half of the season. Lawrence Butler has been as hot as anyone in the majors of late. Butler is a great table setter. Brent Rooker has been consistently excellent all year. Shea Langaliers has heated up of late, and he has a bunch of power. 

Oakland is 8th in the majors in weighted on base average in the second half of the season. They are 10th in wOBA in the last 14 days. Luis Castillo has an ERA over 4.5 in his last six starts. He has been giving up far too many long balls. Castillo has poor numbers in a small sample size against this Oakland lineup too.

J.T. Ginn doesn't have very good secondary stuff. The Seattle Mariners offense has gotten a bit healthier of late, and it has started to show on the scoreboard. I think Ginn could struggle especially against the top four in this Seattle order. 

The bullpens here have been no better than mediocre of late. Manny Gonzalez has a low strikeout/walk ratio and he is a helpful umpire for an over. This is a low number. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Atlanta Braves offense deserves a ton of credit for hanging in there as well as possible considering the massive amount of injuries they have had during the season. Lately, they have multiple key bats out of the lineup every day. Ozuna and Olson are really the only two primary guys they have healthy left in the middle of the order. The offense is still decent, but they are nothing like they were when healthy at the start of the year.

Spencer Schwellenbach has been dealing for the Braves. He has a sparkling 2.48 ERA and a 2.07 FIP in his last six starts. He has 53 strikeouts in those six starts compared to only eight walks. 

Aaron Nola has been much better when pitching at home in his career, and that has been the case again this season. Nola has pitched shutouts in his last two starts at home. 

The temperatures have moderated in Philadelphia and this one should see numbers in only the mid 70's so the ball shouldn't carry quite as much.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Charlotte 49ers have played slowly on offense under Poggi. I would expect them to do their best to try to win sloppy low scoring games. The Charlotte defense is the strength of the team. Poggi is a defensive minded coach. Charlotte was able to pick up a bunch of secondary transfers in the portal. The pass defense should improve this season. The defensive line was a solid unit last year and should be again. 

Charlotte lacks the star power at QB/RB/WR to put up a lot of points on hardly anyone. They have some solid TE's and they will use them as much as they can. 

James Madison gets a whole new look this year. Chesney has been a good coach for many years and I like the hire of him. I think it is likely that JMU will want to establish the run with this offense. The wide receivers are a weakness for the Dukes. The James Madison defense is clearly way down from last year, but I still think it is an above average Sun Belt defense. I think they can limit big plays.

I expect a fairly slow tempo for both teams. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas A&M Aggies have defensive mastermind Mike Elko as their new head coach. Elko is one of the best defensive minds in the nation. It's also especially interesting in this one because he knows Riley Leonard, the new Notre Dame quarterback, as well as anyone. Leonard was the quarterback for Elko last year at Duke.

I expect the extremely young Notre Dame offensively line to struggle badly against Scourton and the stars on the defensive line for Texas A&M. Notre Dame is unlikely to have much time throw the ball down the field here. I think they'll play things pretty safe on offense.

The Notre Dame defense has stars on the defensive line in Cross and Mills as well. Texas A&M has a new offense to learn and an extremely tough defense to test it out against here. I think the Aggies will play at a slower pace than most teams this year on the whole.

The two defenses have the upper hand here, and the defensive lines have the single biggest advantages. I think it will be tough to move the ball here, and when the teams do move the ball I think they'll settle for field goals pretty often.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Michigan Wolverines still have an absolutely elite defensive line. I think Mason Graham is going to be a major problem for nearly every opponent this year. Michigan should dominate Fresno State's offensive line in this one. Mikey Keene is a solid quarterback, but I don't think he'll have much time at all to throw here. The Fresno State running backs aren't going to have room to run either.

Michigan's offense lost so much from last year. McCarthy was a great leader and he made things happen when the play was busted. I expect Orji to get most of the snaps at quarterback for Michigan here. He's a good scrambler, but I don't know that Michigan trusts him a lot in the passing game yet. Fresno State is an excellent secondary, and I do expect them to make things tough on the Michigan passing attack.

Michigan should play slowly under Sherrone Moore, and I would expect a very run heavy attack. The Wolverines play Texas next weekend in one of the biggest non-conference clashes of the season this year. Why would Michigan put a lot on tape here for Texas to see? The Wolverines should be happy to run the ball and be pretty vanilla on offense.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Kennesaw State is in their first season of FBS action. I expect them to run the ball early and often from their pistol option offensive attack. They should also play very slowly and attempt to reduce the amount of possessions here. 

UTSA should be a little less explosive without Frank Harris at quarterback. The Roadrunners have big games against Texas State and Texas coming up right after this. The Roadrunners are unlikely to show anything too much in a game like this. I think they'll be less likely to want to run up the score than they would in a different situation.

The UTSA defensive line should be too much for the Kennesaw State offensive front that is a clear question mark heading into the season.

UTSA should win comfortably here and I think Kennesaw State struggles to do much scoring at all.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Chicago Cubs have scored 59 runs in their last six contests. The Cubs offense underachieved much of this season, but they are on fire of late. It's a deep lineup with plenty of power and speed. They are definitely up against a great pitcher in Paul Skenes here, but I think they can make him work and get to the bullpen quicker than most teams have. The Pirates bullpen has been very weak this year. Skenes has been a little bit wild in recent starts too.

Kyle Hendricks is far past his prime. Hendricks has a 7.16 ERA on the road this year. He isn't getting hardly any swings and misses. Hendricks has a terrible .355 weighted on base average against this Pirates lineup. The Pirates have 32 runs in their last five games. 

The over is 86-54 in Edwin Moscoso's games behind home plate. He is one of the best over umpires in the majors. He has proven slow to ring up batters when they have a two strike count.

The weather is helpful here. A temperature of 94 degrees during this one and winds blowing out toward center field at about 7 mph.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Diamondbacks offense has been absolutely on fire of late. Even without star Ketel Marte, this DBacks lineup has been hitting the ball extremely well. Guys like Perdomo, Suarez, Gurriel, and Carroll have really been seeing the ball very well. 

Arizona is third in the majors in weighted on base average in the last two weeks. The Diamondbacks haven't benefited from any luck in that time either. They have a .290 batting average on balls in play. In the last two weeks, the New York Mets are sixth in wOBA. The Mets have quite a few guys who hit left handed pitching well.

For the season overall, the Mets are fourth in wOBA against lefties. The Diamondbacks are third in wOBA against lefties. 

Chase Field is a hitter friendly park. Sean Manaea and Eduardo Rodriguez are both decent lefties, but at this point in their career neither of them are overpowering. I think there will be traffic on the bases for both teams. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The weather in Kansas City stands out on Sunday afternoon. A high temperature of 100 degrees and winds blowing straight out at Kaufman Stadium at 15 mph sustained with gusts of 25 mph. 

Kaufman Stadium ranks in the top 5 hitter friendly ballparks in the majors. With conditions like this it becomes a massive plus for the hitters. The over has been extremely good at Kaufman Stadium on very hot days, and in this case we have heavy winds blowing out as well.

Kolby Allard starts here for the Phillies and he usually doesn't go very deep in the game. He is shaky at best, and he is up against a Kansas City lineup that is second in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 14 days. Kansas City is also top five in the majors in wOBA at home.

The Royals have seen 3 of their last 4 games finish with 11 runs or more.

The Phillies have a deep lineup. Seth Lugo has an ERA over 5 in his last five starts. Philadelphia certainly has the power hitters to take advantage of the conditions in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Francisco Giants start Blake Snell here. No pitcher in the majors has been throwing the ball as well as him of late. Snell has a sparkling 1.05 ERA and a 1.30 FIP in his last five starts. He has 55 strikeouts in his last five starts. 

The Seattle Mariners have George Kirby on the mound in this one. Kirby had one terrible start, but in his last 15 starts he has a great 2.75 ERA and a 2.76 FIP. Kirby is a strike thrower to the max with a 1.32 walks rate per nine innings. 

Seattle and San Francisco both rank in the bottom five offenses in the majors in the last 14 days in weighted on base average. These two offenses are up against excellent pitchers here. 

Seattle strikes out at the highest rate of anyone in the majors. Snell should rack up the strikeouts here.

Tripp Gibson is a solid under umpire who should help give both pitchers the corners in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians have scored 1 run or fewer in four of their last five games. The Guardians are second to last in the majors in weighted on base average in the majors in the last 14 days. 

The Texas Rangers have scored two runs or fewer in five of their last seven games. They have underachieved on offense all year. 

Tanner Bibee has an ERA under 2 in his last five games. Bibee now has a 2.36 ERA in the second half of the season in his career. Bibee has allowed just a .241 wOBA to the Texas Rangers lineup. 

Nate Eovaldi has a .242 wOBA allowed against the Cleveland lineup. Eovaldi is a solid pitcher who is up against an offense in a funk right now.

The Guardians have the best bullpen in baseball which is a plus for this bet especially with them favored in this contest.

The weather in Cleveland is mild now and the slight breeze will be blowing in during the game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tampa Bay Rays have scored 3 runs or fewer in 10 of their last 15 games. Tampa Bay is dead last in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 14 days. 

The Oakland A's have scored 3 runs or fewer in 11 of their last 15 games. In 9 of those 15 games they have scored 2 runs or fewer. 

Both Tampa Bay and Oakland rank in the top 12 in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. They rank 28th and 20th in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching though. They are both up agianst right handed pitchers in this one.

Ryan Pepiot has had a very solid season. He has a 3.69 ERA and a 3.73 FIP. He has allowed just one earned run in his last three starts combined. 

Mitch Spence has a 4.64 ERA and a 4.38 FIP on the season. Spence has a 3.86 ERA when pitching in Oakland this season. He has allowed two runs or fewer in four of his last five starts.

Tampa Bay has the best bullpen ERA in the majors in the last 30 days. Oakland's bullpen is a major strength as well.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona Diamondbacks got some bad news when Ketel Marte went on the injured list. Marte is the leader for this team, and he's been their most consistent hitter. 

The Miami Marlins have heated up a bit against right handed pitching, but they have been awful against left handed pitching. They are second to last in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties (only the White Sox have been worse and it is very close between those two). 

Eduardo Rodriguez is a pretty decent left handed pitcher who has just two starts this year. He had a bad first outing, but was much better in his second outing. 

Edward Cabrera has been hit hard on the road, but he has been good at home this season. He has great swing and miss stuff, and his potential is very. 

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire here and he is one of the best under umpires in baseball. His strikes called rate and strikeout/walk ratios have been consistently very pitcher friendly. That should help both pitchers here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Blake Snell has been nearly unhittable of late. Since Snell came back from the injured list on July 9, he has an ERA of 0.99 in 45 and 1/3 innings pitched. He has 60 strikeouts in that span as well. In five of his seven outings during this streak, Snell has allowed no runs. He's been the most dominant pitcher in baseball of late. 

JP Sears has a 2.91 ERA in his last seven outings. Sears has only eight walks in those last seven outings, and his offspeed pitch has really been bothering opposing hitters.

The Giants have scored 3 runs or fewer in six of their last eight games. The A's have scored 2 runs or fewer in 7 of their last 12 games. 

The bullpens are well rested in general and I like this one to stay low scoring. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* We have two starting pitchers who have a high strikeout rate this year. They are inducing swings and misses. The opposition strikes out a lot as well so it is a matchup that could work out well for the starters.

Bido has been great in three of his last four starts despite facing good competition. Birdsong is a pretty highly touted youngster who has been up and down this year. 

This is still one of the best pitcher's park in the majors. Both bullpen are in the top half of the league.

These teams had a day off yesterday and the back end dominant bullpen guys should be saved up and ready for this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Walker Buehler returns from the injured list to start in this one for the Dodgers. Buehler had a 5.84 ERA and a 6.07 FIP in his eight starts prior to being on the injured list. Buehler made three rehab starts. In those 3 rehab starts in Triple A, Buehler gave up nine runs in 12 and 2/3 innings and allowed 16 hits. 

Frankie Montas has a 5.10 ERA and a 4.92 FIP on the season. He has a low swinging strikes rate, and he walks far too many batters. Montas is also allowing a lot of home runs. 

The Dodgers lineup is the best in the National League with Mookie Betts healthy again. The top four in this lineup is a gauntlet that even great pitchers should struggle to get through. 

The Brewers lineup has been very good in recent weeks. While Buehler has the upside potential, he has really struggled with command this season.

David Rackley is a clear over umpire with a tighter strike zone than most. That should help the hitters here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* A pitching matchup of Stone vs. Rea with a total below a key number and two strong offenses has me on the over in this one. 

The Milwaukee Brewers are averaging 6.3 runs per game in their last ten games. The Brewers have some young talent that has really sparked the offensive output in the last few weeks. Jackson Chourio is at the top of that list.

The LA Dodgers are averaging 5.3 runs per game in their last ten games. They just got Mookie Betts back from injury yesterday and he immediately homered. The Dodgers offense is already very good and adding a superstar right near the top of the lineup will help a lot.

Gavin Stone has potential, but he is struggling right now. Stone has a 6.29 ERA and a 6.10 FIP in his last five starts. Colin Rea is due for regression with an unsustainable 80% strand rate on the season.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Twins start David Festa in this one. He has been one of the highest ranked pitching prospects in baseball, and he is coming off his best start of his career. Festa has a 1.88 ERA in his last three starts. He has 22 strikeouts in his last 14 innings pitched. He has been a very high strikeout guy during his time in the minors as well.

The Cleveland Guardians offense has hit the skids of late. They are second to last in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 30 days. The only team who has been worse offensively during that time has been the Chicago White Sox. 

Tanner Bibee has been very good the Guardians this year. He has a 3.48 ERA and a 3.39 FIP on the season. 

The Guardians have the best bullpen in baseball, and the Twins have a top 6 or 8 bullpen in the majors too. Neither pitcher is expected to go too deep into the game here, but the bullpens have been excellent.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Diego Padres have become one of the best offenses in baseball. The Padres are top five in the majors in wOBA and wins created against right handed pitching. They are top five in the league in both those categories over the last 30 days as well. They are top five in the league in away from home offensive performance. The Padres strike out at the lowest rate of any team in the majors against right handed pitching.

The Miami Marlins still aren't a great offense by any means, but since going young this offense has improved a lot. Edwards and Bride have provided a real spark for the team. Instead of being at the bottom of the barrel in offensive categories, they have been about league average of late. 

Waldron has allowed 3 runs or more in five of his last seven starts. Munoz has a 5.68 ERA and a horrible 7.04 FIP on the season. He has been getting crushed.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Philadelphia Phillies are first in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The Arizona Diamondbacks are second in the majors in wOBA against. Both of them will be up against a lefty today. 

Jordan Montgomery has drastic splits this year. He has a 4.26 ERA on the road with a .309 wOBA allowed. At home, he has a terrible 8.39 ERA and a .429 wOBA allowed.

In 10 of the Diamondbacks last 11 games they have scored at least 5 runs. Arizona is first in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 14 days. This offense is red hot right now. 

The Phillies have scored 24 runs in their last four games. This is a lineup that is filled with guys who crush left handed pitching.

On the whole, Chase Field is still a hitter friendly park. I like both offenses to put up quite a few runs today.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Baltimore Orioles are one of the top three offenses in baseball. They have a really deep lineup full of guys who can hit for power. Baltimore's pitching has really dropped off in the last few weeks. In the last 30 days, Baltimore's bullpen ERA is 4.5, which is 21st in the majors. 

The Orioles have seen 12 of their last 13 games go over this posted total. Baltimore is consistently having very high scoring games both because of their elite offense and their pitching being mediocre of late.

The Toronto Blue Jays have been better hitting in the last few weeks. They are 14th in weighted on base average in the majors in the last two weeks. The Blue Jays have seen 10 of their last 13 games go over this posted total.

Grayson Rodriguez has a .409 wOBA allowed against this Blue Jays lineup. George Springer and Vlad Guerrero Jr. in particular have hit him hard. 

Chris Bassitt has a .454 wOBA allowed against this Orioles lineup. Gunnar Hunderson has 2 home runs against him in just 7 plate appearances. 

I think this total is set too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Paul Skenes is arguably the most dominant starting pitcher in baseball already. Skenes has allowed 2 runs or less in each of his last 12 starts. He has a 1.64 ERA and a 2.52 FIP. He has one of the highest ground ball rates in all of baseball. Because of the movement on his pitches, hitters are chasing at a very high rate.

Arizona has been hitting the ball well, but Skenes has quieted even the best lineups and I'm counting on him to do it again here.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are decent offensively against lefties, but they are second worst in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The Pirates are also bottom four in the majors in wOBA at home. 

Ryne Nelson has a 2.41 ERA and a 2.47 FIP in his last six outings. Nelson has allowed just one home run in his last 37 innings pitched. He has been far better on the road than at home in his career.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Toronto Blue Jays have been hitting much better of late. They underachieved on offense for a long time this season. They have finally gotten it going. 

The New York Yankees are first in the majors in weighted on base average overall and first in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. 

In the Yankees last eight games, all eight of those games have finished with at least ten total runs. In the Blue Jays last nine games, eight of those have finished with ten runs or more.

Carlos Rodon has a 6.88 ERA and a 6.13 FIP in his last seven starts. Rodon is allowing a whopping 3.06 homers per nine innings in this stretch.

Jose Berrios has a 5.82 ERA and a 5.98 FIP in his last seven starts. Berrios has a .360 wOBA allowed against this Yankees lineup so they have really hit him hard.

The weather is favorable with a heat index of about 100 degrees and a very slight breeze blowing out.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Two of the best young left handed pitchers in the game start in Detroit on Friday night. It's Cole Ragans starting for the Royals and Tarik Skubal starting for the Tigers.

Cole Ragans has pitched significantly better on the road than at home this year. Tarik Skubal has been tremendous at home this year. Skubal has a 1.95 ERA and a ridiculous low .219 weighted on base average allowed at home. 

The Kansas City Royals offense is fifth in the majors in wOBA at home, but they are 25th in wOBA on the road. 

Both of these teams have been below average against left handed pitching, and they are up against really good lefties here.

Skubal has struggled pitching in KC, but when facing the Royals at home he has been excellent. 

Ragans has allowed just 1 hit in 23 at bats against the Tigers lineup he is expected to face on Friday night.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Marlins offense has been better of late, but I'm not buying that they are going to be able to keep it up. Miami traded away Jazz Chisholm Jr. who had the best weighted on base average on the team before he was traded. The Marlins have a .336 batting average on balls in play in the last 14 days. That is unsustainable and they should come back down to earth soon. For the season as a whole, Miami is third worst in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching.

The Milwaukee Brewers have scored a combined 10 runs in their last five games. Milwaukee is a bit banged up and they have really struggled of late. Tobias Myers will try to help them stop their losing streak in this one. Myers has a 3.14 ERA and a 3.95 expected ERA. 

Kyle Tyler has a 3.92 ERA and a 3.92 FIP on the season. He doesn't pitch deep into the game, but that's actually a good thing in this case. The Miami Marlins bullpen is the strength of their team. It is a top five bullpen in the majors. 

Phil Cuzzi is the home plate umpire here. In my umpire database of 91 home plate umpires, Cuzzi has called the third highest percentage of strikes in the last five years. Cuzzi consistently has a very high strikeout/walk ratio. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Baltimore Orioles have a very good offense, but several of their key players have been in a funk of late. Baseball is a game of momentum and the Orioles offense is just 15th best in weighted on base average in the last month. 

Michael King starts for San Diego here, and he has been amazing in the last couple months. King has a 2.52 ERA and a 2.38 FIP in his last 14 starts. In King's last 8 starts, he has a 2.40 ERA and a sparkling 1.90 FIP. He is striking out 11.40 batters per nine innings during that time.

Dean Kremer starts for the Orioles here. Kremer has historically been much better in the second half of the season than the first. San Diego is exactly middle of the pack in the last 30 and 14 days on offense. 

Ryan Blakeney is the umpire here, and he is a strike caller. He carries a high strikeout/walk ratio over his career.

This one is at the key number of 9, and I'm taking the under here.

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago White Sox have the worst offense in the majors in the last month, and it isn't close. Chicago also has the worst offense in the majors against right handed pitching this season. 

The White Sox have scored 2 runs or fewer in six of their last seven games. They have also scored 3 runs or fewer in 11 of their last 12 games (the other game they scored just 4 runs). 

The Seattle Mariners offense has struggled badly of late. Seattle has scored 2 runs or fewer in seven of their last eight games. 

George Kirby is a really good right handed pitcher. He has allowed 2 runs or fewer in nine of his last ten starts. Kirby has a 3.20 ERA and a 2.74 FIP on the season. 

Drew Thorpe has a lot of upside and he has allowed 2 runs or fewer in five straight starts.

The weather in Chicago calls for moderate temperatures and winds blowing in about 7 mph during this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians offense has cooled off drastically of late. Cleveland started the year on fire offensively, but in both the last 14 days and 30 days the Guardians have been a bottom 8 offense in the majors. 

Detroit has hit the ball better of late, but it has been helped by a really high batting average on balls in play. This is still a below average Tigers offense on the whole. 

Jack Flaherty is having a great bounce back season. Flaherty has a 3.13 ERA along with a 3.16 FIP and a 2.48 xFIP on the season. He is racking up the strikeouts. He is striking out 11.35 batters per nine innings on the season. He is walking only 1.52 batters per nine innings.

Tanner Bibee starts for the Guardians, and he has great swing and miss stuff. He is striking out 10.25 batters per nine innings. The Tigers have a lot of high strikeout guys in their lineup.

Phil Cuzzi is the home plate umpire here. Cuzzi has been one of the most consistent high strikeout/walk ratio umpires and a strong under umpire overall for many years. 

Six of the last eight Cleveland games have stayed under this low total.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Garrett Crochet has been one of the best left handed starting pitchers in baseball this year. Crochet has a 3.02 ERA with a 2.43 expected ERA and a 2.35 FIP. In his last 14 starts, Crochet has a 1.74 ERA and a 1.68 FIP. He hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in any of those starts.

The Texas Rangers lineup is just 23rd in the majors in weighted on base average. I think Crochet is a really tough matchup for them. Crochet has great swing and miss stuff.

Jon Gray has been good this year. Gray has a 3.96 ERA and a 3.46 FIP. In his career, Gray has a fantastic .213 weighted on base average against this White Sox lineup. The White Sox are dead last in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching, and it isn't even close. In their last 9 games, the White Sox have topped 3 runs only once (that time was only 4 runs too), so they come into this one ice cold.

Vic Carapazza is 12-8 to the under this year and his strikeout/walk ratio is high. He should help the pitchers as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Colorado Rockies offense is the weakest it has been in many years. Coors Field is still absolutely a hitter friendly park, but many of the Rockies games have been low scoring, especially of late. 

In the Rockies last 9 home games, 8 of the 9 have stayed under this total. The one that went over the total finished at 11 total runs. In fact, 7 of the 9 games finished with 7 runs or fewer. 

Austin Gomber has better numbers at home this year than he has on the road. While the Red Sox are a good offense, they are far better against right handed pitching. The Red Sox are 3rd in weighted on base average against righties. They are 17th in the majors in wOBA against lefties.

Tanner Houck has been tremendous this year for the Red Sox. Houck has a superb 2.54 ERA and a 2.67 FIP. 

The temperature here should be mild in the upper 70's with a wind blowing in from right field at about 8 mph.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago White Sox rank last in both weighted on base average against right handed pitching and wOBA in the last 30 days. The White Sox offense is really bad however you look at it. This team gets held to a very low number very often.

Seth Lugo has been solid all season. Lugo has a 2.48 ERA and a 3.32 FIP on the season. He has allowed no runs in his last 12 innings pitched at home. 

Kansas City is 25th in wOBA in the last 30 days. The Royals offense is just 19th in wOBA against right handed pitching too. Drew Thorpe was excellent in the minors. He struck out 182 batters last year and had a 1.35 ERA in AA earlier this year. Thorpe has a very high upside. 

The wind is expected to be blowing in at about 7 or 8 mph during the game. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Royals start Brady Singer in this one. Singer has a solid 3.20 ERA and a 4.01 FIP on the season. In Singer's last five starts he has a 2.67 ERA and a 3.23 FIP. Singer has had drastic home/road splits the last couple years too. Singer has an ERA nearly a full run lower at home than on the road in his career. So far this year, Singer has a 2.72 ERA when pitching at home. Singer's weighted on base average allowed in the second half of the season has been .303 compared to .332 in the first half. 

The Chicago White Sox are dead last in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitchers. This is a good matchup for Singer.

The Kansas City Royals are 27th in wOBA on offense in the last 30 days. The Royals aren't walking much at all, and they aren't hitting for much power either. 

Jonathan Cannon has a 4.41 ERA and a 4.18 FIP. The right hander had one ugly start in Detroit in June, but overall he has been better in his last few starts. 

The slight wind will be blowing in at about 6 or 7 mph during this game. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Nationals host the Cincinnati Reds tonight to start off the second half of the MLB season. 

Patrick Corbin is on the mound for the Nationals. Corbin was once a very good starting pitcher, but that was a long time ago. Corbin is now one of the worst left handed starters in baseball. Corbin has a 5.57 ERA and a 6.29 expected ERA for the season as a whole. The Cincinnati Reds are much better against lefties than righties too. The Reds lineup has smashed Corbin in the past. They have a whopping .515 weighted on base average against Corbin. 

Frankie Montas starts for the Reds here. Montas has a 4.38 ERA and a 4.85 expected ERA on the year. The Nationals are bad against lefties, but are league average against right handed pitching. The youngsters in the Nationals lineup have been good of late.

The weather here calls for mid 80's and a slight wind blowing out.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Lynx were blown away by the Seattle Storm in their last game by a score of 91-63. 

Minnesota has the best defense in the WNBA so far this year giving up just 0.927 points per possession. The Lynx were embarrassed on defense in that loss to Seattle. They gave up 50 points in the first half alone. 

I expect Minnesota to come out with a lot more effort on defense and try to control the pace. Minnesota plays at the second slowest pace of any team in the WNBA. 

The Fever play at a league average tempo. They are below average on defense, but with Collier not likely to play I think Minnesota will have a bit more trouble scoring than normal.

This is a Sunday afternoon contest and those games have been great under bets in the last decade in the WNBA.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Texas Rangers offense has underwhelmed for much of the year, but they have finally woken up of late. In the last 14 days, Texas ranks second in the majors in weighted on base average. They have been hitting for power at a much higher rate of late. 

The Houston Astros have been a bit banged up, but Yordan Alvarez was back in the lineup on Friday night and that's a big key. Jose Altuve has been mashing of late too. Houston is sixth in the majors in wOBA in the last 14 days. 

Nathan Eovaldi is a good pitcher, but he has long had major problems getting the Houston Astros out. Eovaldi has a terrible .439 wOBA allowed against the Astros. Eovaldi has given up a whopping 12 home runs in 137 at bats against this Astros lineup. Yordan Alvarez is 11/17 with 3 doubles and 2 homers against him. Jose Altuve has 7 home runs in just 48 at bats against him.

Spencer Arrigheti walks far too many batters. He relies on getting a bunch of strikeouts. The Rangers rank among the six best teams in the majors in lowest strikeout rate. Arrigheti walks 5 batters per nine innings. 

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Over* There is heavy wind blowing out to center field in this one, and there is rain in the forecast on and off through the night. 

There is a good chance this game would be delayed at some point and there is some chance it would be canceled. If the game is played, I like the over here.

The bullpen is usually seen a whole lot more in rain delayed games. The Rockies bullpen has the worst ERA in the majors by a huge margin. The Mets have the 12th worst bullpen ERA too.

The Mets offense has been red hot in the last few weeks. Tanner Gordon had poor numbers in the minors and I doubt he is successful right away in the majors. The Rockies have major splits vs. righty/lefty. Colorado is much better against left handed pitching and they are up against a lefty here.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Yankees offense is first in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. Shane Baz doesn't have much experience in the big leagues. He has some good stuff, but he is prone to giving up a big inning here and there.

Tampa Bay is bottom five in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching, but they are top ten in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. Nestor Cortes has struggled mightily against this Rays lineup. In 126 plate appearances, the Rays lineup has an impressive .382 wOBA against Cortes. 

Edwin Moscoso is the home plate umpire here. Out of 91 umpires in my umpire database, Moscoso is dead last in percentage of pitches called a strike in the last five years. Moscoso also has the single lowest strikeout/walk ratio of any umpire during that time. Not surprisingly, the over is 84-50 in his 134 games behind home plate.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The New York Mets offense has been on fire in recent weeks. Now, they go up against Patrick Corbin. The current Mets lineup has a really impressive .389 weighted on base average against Corbin. Pete Alonso leads the way with 5 career homers against Corbin.

Corbin was once a very good pitcher,  but that is no longer the case. Corbin is a subpar lefty with an ERA over 5. He gives up very hard contact, and he no longer generates the swings and misses that he did several years ago. The Mets are fourth in the majors in wOBA against lefties this year. This is a good matchup for the Mets offense.

Luis Severino is a really streaky pitcher. Severino has been struggling of late. He has a 6.04 ERA and a 5.61 FIP in his last four starts. The Nationals lineup has been very weak against lefties, but they are 15th in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. 

Carlos Torres is the home plate umpire in this game. In my umpire spreadsheet where I track all the umpires, Torres is top three in the majors in lowest percentage of pitches called a strike. He continually has a much lower than average strikeout/walk ratio. The over is 85-65 in his games behind home plate.

The wind here is a key as well. Sustained winds of 16 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph blowing out toward center field are expected for this game. The ball should be carrying very well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oakland Athletics offense has shown a lot of life lately. Oakland has been giving more of their young prospects a chance of late, and those guys have gone out and produced right away. Oakland has scored 41 runs in their last six games. The A's are top ten in weighted on base in the last 14 days despite having a low batted ball average. 

Joey Estes starts for Oakland here. Estes has been great when pitching at home, but on the road he has been atrocious. Estes has a 7.00 ERA and a .397 weighted on base average allowed on the road this season. 

The Boston offense is above average on the whole and the depth of the lineup is solid.

Brayan Bello has struggled at home with an ERA over 6 so far this year at Fenway.

The weather here calls for winds blowing out at about 10 mph. Fenway is a top 3 hitters park and with warm weather and winds blowing out it is even more that way.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Houston Astros and Minnesota Twins rank second and first respectively in weighted on base average in the last 14 days. Both of these offenses have been on fire of late. 

The Minnesota Twins have seen their last four games all finish with 11 total runs or more. The Houston Astros have seen six of their last eight games finish with 11 total runs or more. 

Spencer Arrigheti is walking more than five batters per nine innings. In his last four starts, Arrigheti has an 8.64 ERA and a 6.94 FIP. 

Simeon Woods-Richardson started the year well, but he has been slipping of late. In his last six starts, he has a 4.55 ERA and a 4.96 FIP. He has allowed six home runs in his last 31 innings. 

The weather here is a positive for runs as well. The temperature will be around 80 degrees with about 10 mph winds blowing out toward center.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Marlins are easily worst in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. Miami has a brutal .265 wOBA against lefties and they are dead last in ISO (power), so this Marlins team is bad all around against lefties. 

The Chicago White Sox are dead last in the majors in wOBA against righties. The White Sox are a right handed heavy lineup, and they have consistently been dominated even by mediocre right handed pitching.

Garrett Crochet has been amazing for the lowly White Sox this year. Crochet has some of the best statistics of any lefty this year. In Crochet's last 12 starts, he has a sparkling 1.63 ERA and a 1.65 FIP. He has 12 walks and 101 strikeouts in those 12 starts. It's a very tough matchup for the Marlins hitters.

Yonny Chirinos has a solid 3.77 ERA and 3.92 FIP this year. Chirinos is actually backed by a pretty good bullpen in Miami too. 

This total is set low, but it is low for good reasons.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Detroit Tigers and Cincinnati Reds are 27th and 23rd in the majors in weighted on base average this year. Against right handed pitching, the Reds are 26th and the Tigers are 25th. 

The Reds have been held to zero or one run in 6 of their last 16 games. This offense is capable of going very quiet. If you look down the order, the Reds batting averages are very poor. It can be tough for them to string together hits.

The Tigers offense rates even a bit worse than the Reds for the season overall. This Tigers offense is young and not very good.

Reese Olson is a good young starter for the Tigers. Olson has a 3.32 ERA and an even more impressive 2.90 FIP on the season. He has been terrific in his last three starts.

Carson Spiers has a 3.13 ERA and a 2.68 FIP this season. He's not a great pitcher by any means, but he doesn't walk many guys and he doesn't give up many home runs.

The Reds bullpen is better than league average and the Tigers bullpen is league average.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia Phillies offense is slowed considerably by the loss of Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber. Both of these guys had been contributing in a big way of late. They are both on the injured list now. 

The Miami Marlins have the worst offense in baseball. Miami is bad against right handed pitching, but they are next level bad against left handed pitching. They are historically bad against the lefties. Ranger Suarez is one of the best left handed pitchers in baseball.

Suarez has a fantastic .250 weighted on base average allowed against the current Miami Marlins lineup. He has a 2.01 ERA on the season thus far this year.

The Phillies offense is no better than mediocre in their current state. Both bullpens are top ten in FIP allowed so far this year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Mets offense has been on fire of late. The Mets are averaging a whopping 6.65 runs per game over a large 20 game sample size in their last 20 games. The Mets have been elite agianst lefties all season. Framber Valdez is a quality lefty, but he hasn't been as overpowering this year as he has been in some past seasons. Valdez has a 3.68 ERA and his strikeout rate is down to just 7.03 strikeouts per nine innings. 

Houston's offense has been waking up in recent weeks. The Astros are still a really talented lineup, and most of the team has underachieved for the year overall thus far. Houston is up against Tylor Megill here. Megill has a 4.81 ERA on the season.

The wind is a key factor here too. The weather calls for winds blowing out to center field at 17 mph at the start of this game. The wind is expected to continue at 15 or 16 mph on average during the contest. Citi Field is a place where the weather has mattered more than the average stadium.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Diego Padres host the Washington Nationals in this final game of the series on Wednesday afternoon. 

San Diego has been on fire offensively of late. The Padres have scored 6 runs or more in five of their last six games. 

Washington has scored 6 runs or more in four of their last five games. Dylan Cease starts for the Padres. Cease is ultra talented, but he is very streaky. In his last five games, Cease has an ERA above six. 

D.J. Herz was amazing against Miami a couple starts ago, but they are an abysmal lineup (especially against lefties). The Padres have a deep lineup and should make it tough on him.

Edwin Moscoso is one of the best over umpires in the league. Moscoso is 10-5 to the over this year and the over is 73-43 in his last 116 behind the plate. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Baltimore Orioles are first in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 30 days. Baltimore's offense has had a couple down games in their last three games, but I expect a bounce back soon. This Orioles offense is deep and they have a ton of power.

Cleveland's offense has been one of the biggest surprises in baseball this year. Steven Kwan has been setting the table and Jose Ramirez and company have been knocking in a ton of runs. The Guardians are fifth in wOBA in the last 30 days. 

The Guardians have scored five runs or more in 7 of their last 8 games. Baltimore scored 35 runs in three games right before this very recent minor slump.

Logan Allen has been struggling badly this year. Cole Irvin is due for regression and his long term numbers show he is no better than a mediocre lefty.

The weather matters here too. The game time temperature will be about 90 degrees and the wind will be blowing out to center at about 10 mph. That's a big boost for the over.

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Under* Taking an under in a game played at Coors Field is never fun, but I'm going under this total.

Kyle Freeland has similar splits at home vs. on the road through his career. He is coming back from an injury, and he's up against a Nationals team that is bottom five in the majors against lefties.

Jake Irvin has been good this year. His walk rate has plummeted to 1.99 walks per nine innings and he has a 3.24 ERA on the season. The Rockies are a bottom five offense against righties.

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire here and he is one of the very best under umpires in baseball. Eddings consistently has an extremely high strikes called rate and a high strikeout/walk ratio. For example, the MLB average so far this year is around 2.65 for a strikeout/walk ratio. Eddings has a 4.09 strikeout/walk ratio. Eddings is a very pitcher friendly umpire. Dating back to 2006, the under is 12-6 in Eddings 18 games behind home plate at Coors Field.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Quietly, Erick Fedde has been pitching extremely well this year. In his last  five starts, Fedde has a 3.07 ERA and a really impressive 2.29 FIP. He has allowed only one home run in his last five starts. 

Jack Flaherty has a 3.01 ERA and a 2.61 FIP on the season. Flaherty hasn't allowed a single run in his last three starts combined. He has two walks and 19 strikeouts in those three starts. 

The White Sox are dead last in the majors in weighted on base average. The Tigers are 24th. 

The Tigers have scored a grand total of 3 runs in their last four games. All four of those games have stayed under this low total.

The White Sox have scored 3 runs or fewer in seven of their last nine games. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Wings take on the Chicago Sky in a noon eastern (11 am central) start. 

These rare early start times have played heavily toward the under in the WNBA. In games with a spread of 5.5 points or less in either direction and a total of 155 or higher (both fit this game), the under is at almost exactly 60% in the last 400 contests. 

Dallas ranks second to last in tempo in their last eight games. If you look at just the last five games, Dallas is last in offensive efficiency in the WNBA. Chicago is only 10th out of 12 teams in offensive efficiency.

Both teams saw their last game go comfortably over the total. The WNBA has shown the propensity to have games that were high for both teams followed up by an under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians have the best bullpen in baseball. They have the best bullpen ERA and the best bullpen FIP. It is no fluke. The Guardians have a very deep bullpen. Bibee starts for Cleveland here, and he has great strikeout stuff. He is averaging 10.39 strikeouts per nine innings so far this year. 

Woo starts for the Mariners. He has a 1.07 ERA and a 2.38 FIP. He is walking only 0.53 batters per nine innings. 

The Guardians have scored three runs or fewer in five of their last ten games. The Mariners have allowed three runs or fewer in five of their last seven games.

The home plate umpire for this one is Doug Eddings. He has the highest strikes called percentage of any umpire in the majors over the last five years. Eddings has a strikeout/walk ratio of higher than 4 this year. He is a very pitcher friendly umpire.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Padres and Phillies both have pretty good pitchers going in this one, but there are several factors pointing to the over here. 

The weather calls for temperatures in the upper 80's at the beginning of the game. The winds are expected to be blowing out toward center field at about 11-13 mph. The ball should carry very well in Philadelphia today. Long term trends show that this is a stadium where the winds matter a lot.

Both of these teams rank in the top eight in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching so far this year. 

The home plate umpire here is a big over umpire. Edwin Moscoso is a newer umpire, but he has consistently had a very low called strikes and strikeout/walk ratio. The over has cashed in better than 60% of his games so far.

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Marlins are easily last in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. The Washington Nationals are second to last in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. 

Both teams start a lefty in this one. Jesus Luzardo is an inconsistent lefty. There is always some risk with him because he is occasionally hit hard, but his stuff is great and this Nationals lineup is very weak against lefties. Mitchell Parker is a youngster who is off to a solid start with the Nationals. He hasn't allowed more than 3 earned runs in a game all season long. He has a 3.21 ERA on the season.

The Marlins have scored three runs in their last three games. Miami is averaging 2.1 runs per game in their last 12 contests. 

The Marlins bullpen struggled early in the year, but they have been the strength of the team in recent weeks. The Nationals bullpen is middle of the pack, but that gives them an advantage over this Miami offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Detroit Tigers rank 26th in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 14 days. The Washington Nationals rank 23rd in wOBA in the last 14 days. These lineups aren't great to begin with, and they come into this one in poor form. 

Jake Irvin has made huge improvements this year. What has been the big key? Irvin is walking far less people than he was in previous seasons. Irvin averaged 4.02 walks per nine innings last year, but he is walking only 1.68 batters per nine innings this year. He has a 3.14 ERA and a 3.16 FIP on the season. 

Reese Olson has excellent stuff and the scouts loved him before he got up to the big leagues. He is coming off one of his worst starts as a big leaguer. I like his chances of bouncing back. Comerica Park is clearly a pitchers park and it is even more so when the wind is blowing in as it is expected to be during this game. 

The weather here calls for winds blowing in at about 8-10 mph at the start of this game.

Take the under.