3*Kansas City Chiefs -1

The 49ers and Eagles had stronger rosters than the Chiefs during their last two Super Bowl victories. However, Andy Reid and his coaching staff possess strategic expertise that gives the Chiefs an advantage over the Eagles. Philadelphia faced only four teams ranked in the top 12 for defensive DVOA, and they have two rookie cornerbacks who will be tested in this matchup. This should be a highly competitive, one-score game. The Chiefs will have a quarterback and head coach entering the Hall of Fame five years after retirement. I picked Kansas City to win the Super Bowl in August and still believe in the Chiefs.

4*Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3

The Commanders played the easiest schedule (30th) of all the playoff teams. They went 2-3 in outdoor road games. Washington is ranked 30th in run defense, while the Buccaneers are ranked 4th in run offense. The Bucs rank 4th in red zone offense, while Washington is 22nd in red zone defense. Tampa Bay owns the No. 1 third-down offense, while Washington is ranked 15th in third-down defense. The Commanders' defense was on the field for 75 plays and 37.03 possession time against Dallas. Washington has a negative sack differential (-0.4), and these teams struggle in the Wild Card round. The Buccaneers have established a playoff pedigree, making the divisional round last year, while the Commanders are brand new in post-season play.

5*Ohio State -2.5

The Ohio State Buckeyes played a much more demanding non-conference schedule (No. 5 vs. No. 32) while owning better net yards per play (+2.7 vs. +1.9) overall. Ohio State’s point differential is +24.6, while Oregon is +18.8. The Ducks outgained four of six fellow Bowl teams with an average yards per game of +82. Ohio State outgained six of seven Bowl teams for an average yards per game of +145. Oregon outgained the Buckeyes in that one-point home victory. After that game, Ohio State changed its defensive scheme, which has dramatically helped. I like Ohio State in this revenge spot!

3*Iowa +3

Last season, Missouri defeated Ohio State 14-3 in the Cotton Bowl, which we had as an easy winner. Remember how many players were out for the Buckeyes, including their quarterback Kyle McCord and first-round pick wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.? I don’t think this Missouri team is as talented, and it’s a little bit of a letdown spot playing against Iowa. The Hawkeyes lost 35-0 in last year’s Citrus Bowl, so you know they are highly motivated in this one. Both teams have key opt-outs which are accounted for in the line. A strong system for years in Bowl games is to “play on” teams as underdogs if they lost their previous Bowl game by 30 or more. Grab the points.

4*Green Bay Packers +100 (ML)

This will be the Vikings’ 11th straight game after having their BYE in week six, which should offset Green Bay’s one less day of rest. These teams have split their season series in the last three seasons. Minnesota defeated Green Bay 31-29 as 2.5-point road dogs against a “nicked” Packers squad. Green Bay outgained Minnesota 465-379. The Packers have better net yards per play on both sides of the ball and a better sack differential (+1.8 vs. -0.2). I like the road team in this spot.

4*USC +4

The Trojans began their season with a victory over LSU at Allegiant Stadium, the same venue as the Las Vegas Bowl. This familiarity with the environment may give them a slight advantage in comfort and preparation. In contrast, Texas A&M suffered losses in three of their last four games, including their final three conference matchups. They lost three starting defenseman lineman to the transfer portal, which was the strength of their defense. In last year's Holiday Bowl, USC overcame opt-outs and showed up ready to play, bringing the fight to Louisville. This experience suggests that Lincoln Riley and his staff know how to motivate and prepare the team for postseason play. USC also lost some key players, but they have a deep roster. Dog call.

4*New York Jets +3

The LA Rams are overrated, ranking 21st in net yards per play, while the Jets are ranked 7th. The Rams have a net yards per play of -0.53 in road games, while the Jets are +0.76 at home. The Jets' secondary is healthy, with D.J. Reed a full participant at practice. The Jets are significantly better in key defensive metrics for passing and running. The Rams are a dome team playing outdoors in freezing weather. Last season, Matthew Stafford had a record of 1-1 straight up and 0-2 against the spread in two games played when the temperatures were below 40 degrees. His win was a 1-point victory in East Rutherford against the Giants as 4-point chalk. Aaron Rodgers has consistently excelled in freezing conditions. 

4*Tennessee +7.5

This line seems high to me. Tennessee has a +83-yard differential against fellow bowl teams, while Ohio State is +18. The Volunteers own a +6 point differential against fellow bowl teams, while the Buckeye are +5. Tennessee also has better yards per point on both sides of the ball against bowl teams this season. Don’t forget, The Vols and Penn State are the only teams to hold five opponents to season-low yardage. Tennessee is ranked higher in down-by-down consistency, ranking 28th compared to 36th for the Buckeyes. Both teams have solid kickers. However, Tennessee is ranked 43rd in net punt yards, while Ohio State is ranked 94th. The Vols went 7-5 ATS this season, including 4-0 when playing on Field Turf. Grab the points.

3*Memphis -3

No team has lost more players to the transfer portal than the Mountaineers after firing head coach Neal Brown. The Tigers' high-powered offense, 35.2 points per game, should exploit West Virginia's vulnerable defense that allows 31.1 points. Memphis Senior QB Seth Henigan (Texas native) and running back Mario Anderson form a potent offensive duo that will challenge the Mountaineers' 106th-ranked defense. Memphis is riding a wave of momentum, starkly contrasting West Virginia's interim head coaching issues. The Tigers are highly motivated, aiming to defeat a Power-5 team, and their bowl game success (3-0 run) further strengthens their chances to win. The players have a strong affection for head coach Ryan Silverfield, who stands to earn a $50,000 bonus with a victory.

3*Denver Broncos -3.5

The Denver Broncos are ranked second in net yards per play defense, eighth in yards per game defense, fourth in net yards per pass defense, second in red zone defense, sixth in run defense, and eighth in opponent passer rating. The Colts are ranked 23rd in net yards per play defense, 29th in yards per game defense, 27th in net yards per pass defense, 17th in red zone defense, 30th in run defense, and 23rd in opponent passer rating. Sean Payton wasn’t happy with the Broncos’ defensive effort, allowing 32 points at home before their BYE week. Another data point I like is a Dome Team playing outdoors in December. My betting model has the Broncos favored by 9 points.

3*Carolina Panthers -2

Bryce Young has significantly improved in recent weeks. Since Week 9, Young's Total QBR of 60.0 ranks 13th in the NFL, surpassing even established stars like Patrick Mahomes. The Cowboys are coming off a demoralizing loss to the Bengals and will be playing in a short week without their starting center and stud linebacker. Cooper Rush is not a good quarterback, as evidenced by his QBR of 30.4. The Panthers rank 9th in opponent punt return yards, while Dallas ranks 28th. Look for Chuba Hubbard to run all over this Cowboys' defense, which ranks 25th in run defense. Carolina lost to Dallas 33-10 at home last season. This is the Panthers' Super Bowl, returning to their home stadium after three consecutive losses.

3*New York Giants +5

This is a massive number. We have the Saints favored outdoors in December. The Saints have struggled significantly in their last six games without Taysom Hill, losing 5 out of 6. They've averaged only 15.3 points per game during this stretch, showcasing a stark contrast to their performance with him on the field. With Hill active, the Saints averaged 26.6 points per game across 94 matchups. Without him, that number drops to 17.6 points per game. The Giants are without Dexter Lawrence but can still get pressure from the edge. I like Drew Lock's mobility over Tommy DeVito, so give me the home dog.

3*UNLV +5

Boise State's tackling performance in 2024 has been a significant area of concern. The Broncos rank 130th in PFF's Tackling grades, which places them near the bottom of all FBS teams. This poor tackling performance is further emphasized by their ranking of 196th out of all FBS and FCS defenses in broken and missed tackles allowed. UNLV has recorded 82 tackles for loss on 376 attempts, which ranks as the 3rd best among Non-Power Conference teams. Tackling in extreme cold weather is complex, and the Runnin' Rebels have a big-time edge. They are playing with double revenge after losing earlier this season and in last year's MWC championship game. UNLV has a massive special teams advantage as well.

3*Tennessee Titans +5.5

This will be the Commanders’ 13th straight game without two weeks of rest. The Titans are ranked third in net yards per play defense, second in yards per game defense, second in third-down defense, third in net yards per pass defense, and eighth in run defense while playing the sixth toughest schedule. Washington has played the 25th toughest schedule, and they are 1-7-1 SU and 2-7 ATS in Pre-Bye week games against the AFC. My betting model makes Washington a favorite of 3.5 points, so I have to take the +5.5 spread.

3*Kansas State +2.5

Kansas State has played a slightly tougher schedule (No. 23 vs. No. 32) and has better net yards per play (+0.9 vs. +0.6). The Wildcats have the better sack differential (+1.6 vs. -0.3) and have outgained 10 of 11 foes this season. Kansas State is ranked 15th in rushing yards per game (202.7), while Iowa State is ranked 100th in rushing yards allowed (176.6). Last year, the Cyclones defeated Kansas State 42-35 as 9.5-point road dogs, despite a 32-10 First down margin and 42:12 to 17:48 time of possession deficit. The underdog is 8-2 SU and 8-2 ATS in the last ten meetings. This will be the season's first game in which the Wildcats are underdogs as they look to play spoiler. Take the points!

3*Arizona Cardinals PK

The Arizona Cardinals went 0-6 against division rivals last season. We like betting on these teams in division matchups the following season. Seattle defeated the Cardinals as 3-point road favorites despite being out-gained 466-327 on January 7. Arizona lost by one possession against Mike Macdonald's defense last season. I like that they faced his scheme with much better personnel on the Ravens. Arizona has won three of their previous four games following its BYE week. The Cardinals have played a tougher schedule, ranking No. 2, while Seattle ranks No. 16. Additionally, they rank 12 spots higher in special teams and have a more favorable sack differential (+0.9 vs. -0.9). According to my betting model, Arizona should be favored by 2.5 points.

3*Indianapolis Colts +7.5 (-118)

Both teams have played similar strength of schedules so far this season. This is the absolute top of the market for the Detroit Lions after scoring 50+ points in two of their past four games. My betting Model makes the Lions a favorite of 8.4 points. However, it would help if you took that with a grain of salt, as the Colts have been ravaged by injuries to their front seven and, of course, the QB shuffle. Shane Steichen has a brilliant mind, and I will trust him to keep this one close as they try to save their season. It’s worth noting that the Lions have struggled relatively (one possession wins) against QBs (Stroud & Murray), who average at least 5.0 yards per rush.

3*Kansas +3

The Kansas Jayhawks have strong cornerbacks, Cobee Bryant and Mello Dotson, to defend against the pass, which Colorado relies on heavily. Colorado has faced a weaker schedule, ranked No. 41 compared to No. 24, and has yet to secure a victory against a ranked team. Kansas is ranked 19th in both EPA per play and offensive success rate, averaging over 400 yards in four of their last five games. The Buffaloes' offensive metrics are closer to average than elite (42nd EPA per play & 44th in success rate). They've surpassed 400 yards just twice in their last five games. Colorado ranks 23rd in luck rankings, while Kansas is 132nd. The Jayhawks need victories to become bowl-eligible. Strong system on the home dog!

3*Indiana U +13.5

The Indiana Hoosiers have two weeks to prepare for this revenge game. The Buckeyes' starting Center went down in practice and is out. They are also dealing with other critical injuries up and down the roster. Indiana will be super motivated, considering Ohio State is 10-0 SU against the Hoosiers in their last ten meetings. Ironically, Indiana enters this matchup at 10-0. Take the points!

4*LA Chargers -1

The LA Chargers have several advantages in important defensive metrics, including net yards per play, total yards allowed per game, red zone defense, third-down efficiency, run defense, and net yards per pass attempt. Additionally, LA boasts stronger special teams and ranks six spots higher in DVOA, which accounts for strength of schedule. There is another essential factor for this game. The Ravens played the Bengals on November 7th, and I believe the Harbaugh brothers share insights about common opponents when they speak on the phone. According to my betting model (not power rankings), the Chargers should be favored by 3.9 points, assuming Tee Higgins & Orlando Brown Jr. are back for the Bengals. I like the home team quite a bit!

4*Denver Broncos ML (-120)

The Atlanta Falcons travel to Denver to play the Broncos before their BYE week. Atlanta has a sack differential of -1.1, while Denver is +1.8 this season. That’s the largest difference through Week 10. This system has produced 70% winners when the spread is less than 3 points. I think the Broncos will out-physical the Falcons, who haven’t played in Denver since 2016. The Broncos have the much better net yards per play defense, third-down defense, red-zone defense, net yards per pass attempt defense, and special teams. Denver has played a more demanding schedule as well. My model makes the Broncos a favorite of -3.8 points. I can see this line creeping up throughout the week, so get down ASAP.

3*South Alabama +7.5

South Alabama is a talented 4-5 team with two weeks of preparation time, looking to avenge last year's loss despite out-gaining Louisiana 498 to 348 yards. The Jaguars are motivated to win all their remaining games and aim for a bowl appearance. On the other hand, the Ragin Cajuns only have a little to play for, especially with a significant revenge game against Troy coming up. It's worth noting that the underdog has performed well, going 6-1 against the spread in the last seven meetings. In their three most recent encounters, South Alabama has been outscored by only 12 points combined. QB Gio Lopez is good to go. I like the road underdog in this matchup!

4*Pittsburgh Steelers +3

This will be the Commanders' 10th consecutive game while the Steelers are coming off their BYE week. Pittsburgh boasts a record of 15-5 straight up and has won seven games in a row when given two weeks to prepare of late. The Steelers rank first in red-zone defense, fourth in run defense, and fifth in opponent passer rating. Washington ranks 28th in red-zone defense, 28th in run defense, and 28th in opponent passer rating. Washington has played the 25th most manageable schedule, while Pittsburgh is ranked 26th. The Commanders have not committed a turnover in four straight games. These teams are major fade bait as chalk. According to my model, Washington should be favored by less than one point.

4*Indianapolis Colts +4

The Indianapolis Colts' offense and defensive metrics are somewhat disappointing due to their injuries. The defense is healthy as it has been this season, and they desperately need a win. Center Ryan Kelly is OUT, but Bernhard Raimann is a highly rated-backup. This could be a sleepy spot for the Buffalo Bills coming off that win over the Dolphins with five seconds on the clock, and they play the Kansas City Chiefs next week. Buffalo is 7-2 SU and hasn't defeated any team with a winning record. Indianapolis plays a zone defense, which is more effective than man coverage against Josh Allen. The Colts did not enter the red zone once during last week's loss in Minnesota. All nine Colts’ games decided by one possession. 

3*Utah U +4

The Utah Utes are currently ranked 11th in the nation on defense, allowing only 16.5 points per game. As an undefeated team facing a .500 opponent, BYU may enter the matchup feeling overconfident, which could enable Utah to keep the score closer than expected. Playing at home in the Holy War in what should be a low-scoring game significantly enhances Utah's ability to cover four points, as they need wins to become bowl-eligible.

3*Green Bay Packers +3.5

I like the value of the home dog, as everyone will be on the Detroit Lions in this spot. Jordan Love is expected to play, so this line is heading to a flat 3 points. I think this is a game where the Lions will miss Edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson. Jared Goff outdoors is much different than Goff indoors. I made this line Detroit minus two. Take the points.

3*Denver Broncos +9.5

This is a massive number, as my model makes the Ravens just a 6-point home favorite. Denver is 8-2 in their last ten road games dating back to last season, which means Baltimore’s home-field edge is somewhat negated. Denver is ranked sixth in opponent passer rating, first in net yards per pass play defense, first in yards per play defense, and third in red-zone defense. Baltimore is ranked 29th in opponent passer rating, 28th in net yards per pass play defense, 25th in yards per play defense, and 19th in red-zone defense. The Ravens are in the middle of a division sandwich with the Bengals on deck next Thursday. Denver has the better special teams as well. (No. 4 vs. No. 25). Take the points.

3*South Carolina +2.5

The Gamecocks have two weeks to prepare for this revenge game, while Texas A&M is coming off their biggest win of the season. However, that victory over LSU was somewhat misleading, as the Aggies were outgained in total yards, 429 to 376. They had a favorable plus-two turnover margin and benefited from three missed field goals by LSU. The Aggies have been outgained in three of their last four games, which raises concerns. South Carolina is just two plays away from having a record of 6-1, as they easily could have defeated both LSU and Alabama. The Gamecocks have played the slightly tougher schedule (No. 3 vs. No. 7). I like the home dog in this spot.

10*Indianapolis Colts +6

Rematch from week one. The Colts are getting six points and will have RB Jonathan Taylor and DT DeForest Buckner back. Love it. The Colts have not won or lost by more than six points in their seven games this season. Last season, they defeated Houston by eleven points and lost by four points. Nico Collins, who won't be playing, has been a problem for the Colts, with 117 receiving yards in week one, 195 receiving yards on January 6th, and 149 receiving yards on September 17th, 2023. The Colts can focus on stopping the Texans' run game, and they have allowed the fourth-fewest sacks, while Houston ranks 24th. These teams have the same point differential (+0.9), and Houston has played a slightly tougher schedule. 

4*Wisconsin +6.5

Penn State has played a slightly tougher schedule (No. 27 vs. No. 35). Under James Franklin, Penn State is 3-6 straight-up following BYE weeks and 1-3 SU in Big Ten road games. His 41.7% against the spread rate is primary fade bait. In 2018, Michigan State defeated Penn State, and in 2019, Minnesota also secured a victory against them. In 2021, Illinois triumphed over Penn State after a historic nine overtimes. Expect a tough defensive battle between two physical Big Ten teams. Wisconsin’s strong run game and home-field advantage will keep it competitive. They also have much better special teams. After six straight wins to start the season, the Nittany Lions may not have wanted a week off. Penn State faces Ohio State next week.

4*North Carolina +5.5

This line seems inflated, but these two teams are very evenly matched. Virginia is ranked 56th in strength of schedule, while North Carolina is ranked 67th. The Tar Heels own a -0.6 net yards per play, while Virginia averages -0.4 net yards per play this season. Last season, the Cavaliers defeated North Carolina 31-27 as 24-point underdogs despite getting out-gained 490-436. The Tar Heels have two weeks to prepare and should be super focused on snapping their four-game losing streak. Virginia has been excellent against the spread this season but has only been favored by more than five points once. I like the road dog!

3*Minnesota Vikings -1 (-125)

The Minnesota Vikings are 2-0 after their bye week with Kevin O’Connell as head coach. Detroit is coming off a big emotional revenge win against the Dallas Cowboys after the refs botched a two-point conversion last season. Minnesota is ranked second in run defense and first in opponent passer rating, which is a good combination against this Lions team. Detroit won both games against Minnesota last year, so the Vikings should be entirely focused with two weeks to prepare.

3*Nebraska +6.5 (-105)

Both teams are well-rested, coming off a bye week, and have faced similar strength of schedules (Nebraska No. 73 vs. Indiana No. 71). This game is a classic matchup between offense and defense. Indiana's high-powered offense will face a tough challenge against Nebraska's strong defense (13.0 points per game). The BYE week is more challenging for a high-powered offense that produces points every week. The Cornhuskers have the defensive talent to slow down Indiana's attack. An early start time helps the underdog stay within the number.

3*Green Bay Packers -5

Arizona's defense ranks near the bottom of the league in several key metrics. They are 26th in EPA per play allowed, 29th in net yards per pass allowed, 23rd in opponent passer ranking, and 30th in third-down defense. Green Bay's offense is getting healthier with the return of receiver Romeo Doubs from suspension. The Packers are ranked 13th in third-down defense, seventh in opponent passer ranking, and they rank 10 spots higher in DVOA. The Cardinals are coming off an emotional division victory in a game that was closer than it appears. Arizona benefited from a minus -2 turnover differential and was out-gained 384-358. They only committed one penalty for five yards, which is likely to regress to the mean. Kyler Murray has never played at Lambeau Field and will find the grass field not to his liking. 

3*Oregon +3.5

When the schedule was released, I always wanted to play Oregon. This game is significant as it will be Ohio State's first visit to Autzen Stadium since 1967 and only the fourth meeting between these two programs this century. The Ducks have recorded seven sacks in their first two Big Ten games, while Ohio State's offensive line has shown some vulnerabilities. The Ducks have the 19th-ranked passing offense in the country, featuring skilled receivers Tez Johnson and Evan Stewart, presenting a formidable test for Ohio State's defensive backs. Will Howard is an experienced quarterback who has thrown one interception in three straight games against weaker pass defenses. Oregon is 34-1 straight up in their last 35 home games. Take the points!

3*Pittsburgh Steelers ML (-136)

I have identified eight essential stats when predicting NFL game outcomes. These stats include net yards per play, third-down offense, third-down defense, red zone offense, red zone defense, opponent passer rating, team penalties, and run defense. The Cowboys have a composite ranking of 160, while the Steelers are at 109. The team with the lower number is the one you should consider betting on. The Cowboys are dealing with a lot of injuries. They have very little depth this season. Kicker Brandon Aubrey may perform poorly in conditions that are less than ideal. There is a 60% chance of showers. Play the home team. 

3*Toledo -6

The Toledo Rockets have been averaging 35 points per game this season, while Miami (OH) has struggled offensively, only managing to average 12 points per game in their first four contests. Toledo allows 4.8 yards per play, while the Red Hawks allow 5.8 yards per play. With two weeks to prepare, Toledo will enter the game seeking revenge for last year's loss. We note that Toledo outgained Miami, OH, 370-306. With home-field advantage, I make Toledo close to an eight-point favorite.

3*Virginia -1

Last week, Boston College had an emotional 21-20 come-from-behind win over Western Kentucky, scoring two touchdowns in the final quarter. Despite being out-gained in each of their previous three games (1,163-869), they managed to win their last two. Boston College has a -0.3 net yards per play, while Virginia has a +0.1 this season. Virginia, who has had two weeks to prepare, will be playing with revenge from last year’s 27-24 setback after botching a 14-point lead. This will be the Eagles’ sixth game in 33 days. Tough. I like the Cavaliers in this spot.

3*Baltimore Ravens -1.5

The Baltimore Ravens have faced a much tougher schedule (No. 6 versus No. 24) and will aim to get their season back on track. John Harbaugh has thrived in prime-time home games against undefeated teams. Buffalo has one less day to prepare after winning easily on MNF. Buffalo has allowed the seventh-most rush yards per play (4.7), while the Ravens have allowed the fewest (2.8). Buffalo is vulnerable in the middle of their defense, and the Ravens can exploit this weakness. The Bills have scored 112 points in their last three games and now play a road game. Strong system on Baltimore. Lamar Jackson is 23-7 against the spread as an underdog or a favorite of three points or less. 

2*Atlanta Falcons -2

The Falcons had this matchup circled since the Saints defeated them 48-17 in the last game of the 2023 season. The Saints extended their lead by scoring a late touchdown instead of running out the clock. Although a new coaching staff exists, many returning players are still on the team. Two key offensive linemen for the Saints, center Erik McCoy, and guard Cesar Ruiz sustained injuries in the Saints' narrow loss to the Eagles last Sunday. The final score is misleading, as Philadelphia outgained New Orleans by 241 yards. Linebacker Demario Davis (seven straight seasons with 100+ tackles) did not practice on Wednesday and Thursday. The Falcons are ranked second in strength of schedule, while New Orleans is ranked 27th.

3*Alabama +2.5

It's possible that the Georgia Bulldogs were looking ahead to this game after narrowly defeating Kentucky last week. Kalen DeBoer and his team should be fired up to snap Georgia's 42-game regular-season winning streak. The Crimson Tide has a much superior third-down offense and third-down defense. The Bulldogs have a -38.5 against-the-spread margin in their last two road games. DeBoer has gone 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS as an underdog in his career. Hard to ignore. I have this game power-rated with Alabama at -1.7, so getting 2.5 points seems like the sharp side.

5*Denver Broncos +6.5

Tampa Bay returns home after their emotional win against the team that eliminated them from the playoffs last season. The Denver Broncos could have defeated the Steelers had it not been for multiple dropped passes. Tampa Bay is ranked last in sacks and pressure rate. Bo Nix and company can move the ball against a depleted secondary where the back door will be open if needed. Vita Vea has been instrumental in the Buccaneers' run defense, as they are 3-3 straight up and 2-4 against the spread without him under head coach Todd Bowles. The largest margin of victory was six points. It seems like a flat spot for the home team, whose defense was on the field for 83 plays last week.

4*Oklahoma U +7 (+100)

The Oklahoma Sooners have played a more demanding schedule (No. 29 vs. No. 45) and will be getting key players back from injury. Josh Heupel's offense hasn't traveled well. In 2022, they averaged 20 points per game less on the road than at home; last year, they averaged nine points less. The Volunteers are massively over-rated in this spot. Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava is set to make his first career road start after three comfortable home victories, including last week's 71-0 win against Kent State. I made this spread at 4.5, so we are getting great value.

5*James Madison +10.5

These teams have played a soft schedule, with the home team playing the more difficult slate, but not by a considerable margin. The Dukes own a +2.7 net yards per play, while the Tar Heels are +0.2 this season. James Madison is 5-1 straight up and 5-1 against the spread, with two weeks to prepare over the last three seasons. They are pumped up to play a Power Four school, and I love head coach Bob Chesney's motivational skills. North Carolina plans to use both quarterbacks, which may challenge either player to find a rhythm. The Tar Heels kick off their ACC slate against in-state rival Duke next week. I made this line 8.3, so getting 10.5 points screams value.

4*Denver Broncos +3

The Pittsburgh Steelers will be playing their second consecutive road game, which will be at high altitude. The Broncos lost their first two home games last season, so they will be focused on getting a win. It's worth noting that Mike Tomlin has been great as a road underdog but not so much as a road favorite. Justin Fields has one of the lowest winning percentages against the spread among NFL quarterbacks, with more than 20 starts. His overall ATS record is 13-18-1, which equates to a 40% cover rate. The Steelers have cluster injuries on their offensive line. I like the home dog!

5*South Carolina +7

The Gamecocks boast one of the most formidable defensive lines in the SEC, with freshman Dylan Stewart leading the charge. They lead the conference in sacks after two games, which will create a lot of havoc on LSU's quarterback. The Gamecocks have a 2-0 record and are coming off an impressive 31-6 win over Kentucky. The Tigers have looked vulnerable, as they suffered a loss to USC and faced difficulties against FCS Nicholls State. Their pass defense success rate is currently ranked 105th nationally at 66%. After playing their starters for an extended period against Nicholls State, the Tigers are dealing with injuries and feeling the effects of the shortened week. This will be LSU's third game in 13 days.

4*Arizona Cardinals +6

The Arizona Cardinals can be a feisty team this season. Despite their 4-13 straight-up record (9-8 against the spread) last season, they played hard for their coach, Johnathan Gannon. Arizona had twelve draft picks and significantly improved their secondary, defensive line, and wide receiver positions. The Buffalo Bills are currently dealing with numerous injuries and have lost as favorites in two of the last three opening-week seasons. Since 2005, non-playoff teams have performed well against playoff teams in Week 1, with a record of 73-52-1 (58.4%) against the spread (ATS). Grab the six points.

4*Carolina Panthers +4.5

The New Orleans Saints have the 32nd-ranked offensive line, according to PFF. The Carolina Panthers have bolstered their lineup with astute draft selections and crucial off-season acquisitions. They get a boost from a sharper coaching staff and will play with double revenge from last year. Carolina is the much healthier team with a SIC (Sports Injury Central) score of 85.3 compared to 78.3 for the Saints. Dennis Allen's career winning percentage as a head coach (including his time with the Raiders) is .343, which ranks 171st out of 176 head coaches who have worked 59 or more games in NFL history. Dennis Allen has an ATS record of 24-40-2 over his coaching career spanning 66 games. I like the Panthers in this spot.

4*Sam Houston Bearkats +22.5

An important aspect of this game that is being overlooked is that the current defensive coordinator for the Bearkats, Skyler Cassidy, was Gus Malzahn’s defensive coordinator at Auburn. UCF runs the same offense, so Cassidy will be familiar with their scheme. Both teams prefer to run the ball, leading to a slower-paced game. The Knights will face TCU next week for their Big 12 opener. Gus Malzahn has a 1-5 ATS record after the Knights score 50 or more points.

4*Texas A&M Aggies -2.5

If you combine returning production and the transfer portal rankings, Texas A&M is 42nd while Notre Dame ranks 96th. The Fighting Irish have Riley Leonard at quarterback, who transferred from Duke. His last game was October 28th after suffering a season-ending injury. Leonard has a completion percentage of 67.8% in home games compared to 53.3% on the road in three seasons. College Station is a challenging venue, with a home-field advantage of 3.5 points. The Aggies welcome first-year head coach Mike Elko, who coached Leonard during his time with the Blue Devils. Texas A&M's defensive line is ranked as one of the best. The Fighting Irish lost standout tackles Joe Alt and Blake Fisher to the NFL and Charles Jagusah to a season-ending injury.

2*Kansas City Chiefs +2

The Kansas City Chiefs have played the most demanding strength of schedule this season, while the 49ers ranked 12th. Kansas City is ranked fifth in third-down defense, eighth in red zone defense, and sixth in special teams DVOA. Conversely, San Francisco is ranked 27th in third-down defense, 14th in red zone defense, and 25th in special teams. Patrick Mahomes is 10-1-1 ATS as an underdog in his career and should feast against the 49ers zone defense. Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo are difficult to conquer with extra preparation time. Kansas City is 4-0 at Allegiant Stadium and should feel right at home. The Chiefs will win back-to-back Super Bowls for the first time since New England accomplished the feat in 2003-04.

Patrick Mahomes Under 0.5 interceptions (-120)

Patrick Mahomes has zero turnover-worthy plays in his last four games. Throughout his career, he has only thrown seven interceptions in 17 postseason games and has not thrown any interceptions in his previous six games. The defense is performing exceptionally well, and Patrick understands he does not need to make risky throws.

Longest FG Over 47.5 yards (-125)

Both kickers possess strong legs, and Allegiant Stadium's altitude of 2,190 feet and indoor setting make it conducive to kicks over 50 yards. 

Travis Kelce Over 69.5 receiving yards (-130)

Travis has exceeded this number in all three playoff games, averaging 87.3 yards. Kelce has been performing exceptionally well, averaging over 90 receiving yards with extra preparation time. Kelce will have a lot of success against the 49ers zone defense. This number keeps climbing and would take it up to 79.5. According to my model, his predicted performance is 89.5 yards.

3*Kansas City Chiefs +3

In December, the Buffalo Bills had two weeks to prepare when they defeated the Chiefs 20-17 as 1-point road dogs. Also, the Chiefs were without their top two linebackers. This time, the Chiefs will have the rest advantage (two days), and the Bills are dealing with numerous injuries, especially on defense. I think it’s a tall task for backups to contain Patrick Mahomes and company this time of year. The Chiefs own the better DVOA defense (#7 vs. #12) and special teams (#6 vs. #15). Finally, Patrick Mahomes is 8-1 ATS in his career as an underdog, winning seven of those games outright. I like the road dog in this spot!

4*Kansas City Chiefs -3.5

The Miami Dolphins are different from the team we saw earlier in the season as they deal with multiple injuries, especially on defense. Speaking of defense, the Dolphins were on the field for 77 plays and will be playing on a short week. The Kansas City Chiefs are well-rested and will have a massive advantage of playing in freezing weather at home. The Chiefs are ranked 10th in third-down defense and 8th in red-zone defense, while Miami is ranked 20th on third-down defense and 28th in defending the red zone. The Chiefs rank 8th in opponent passer rating, while the Dolphins rank 24th. Kansas City ranks 6th in special teams DVOA, while Miami is ranked 22nd. I will swallow 3.5 points!

10*Tennessee Titans +5.5

The Tennessee Titans were eliminated from playoff contention after losing to the Jaguars in week 18 last season. They have dropped eight straight division games from 2022, including three against Jacksonville. The Jags had lost four straight before defeating the Carolina Panthers 26-0 last week. We are getting two extra points of value. Houston recorded six sacks against the Titans last week, but Jacksonville is ranked 27th in sack rate. The Jags committed just one penalty last week, and I expect a negative regression. The Jaguars own a +0.66 net yards per play on the road, while Tennessee owns a +0.62 net yards at home. Mike Vrabel is 24-12-2 ATS as an underdog of 3 or more points. Revenge is sweet!

2*Minnesota Vikings ML (-109)

The Packers will be playing their first back-to-back road games in over two months, and this will be their third road game in 20 days. They are ranked 24th in yards per play on defense (5.5), while Minnesota is ranked ninth (5.0). Green Bay ranks 26th in yards allowed per rush (4.5), while Minnesota is coming off a game where they rushed for only 17 yards. Jaren Hall played the final 11 snaps of the Vikings' win over the Packers after Cousins was injured and started the following week against the Falcons, but left that game after just 11 snaps when he sustained a concussion. Minnesota is ranked fifth in DVOA defense, while GB is ranked 30th. Give me the home team in this spot!

4*Missouri (+100)

It has been reported that some of the key starters of the Ohio State Buckeyes will not be playing in the upcoming bowl game. Moreover, the players who are playing don't seem to be enthusiastic about it. On the other hand, Missouri is highly motivated to defeat a Big Ten program in a bowl game. They lost the Gasparilla Bowl last year and are determined to show out. The team has improved significantly since last year and is expected to put up a great fight. This line should close much higher!

4*Oklahoma State +2.5

Texas A&M will be without 11 players due to injuries, opt-outs, and the transfer portal. Head coach Jimbo Fisher is out, and former Duke head coach Mike Elko will take over starting next season. The Aggies went 1-5 straight-up and 1-4-1 against the spread vs fellow bowl teams, while the Cowboys went 4-4 SU and 4-4 ATS this season. Texas A&M went 1-4 SU and 1-3-1 ATS vs. winning teams, while Oklahoma State went 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS vs. winning teams. QB Alan Bowman and RB Ollie Gordon II (Doak Walker award winner) should have a field day against a defense missing several key starters. I love Mike Gundy in games when his team is an underdog (11-6 ATS in the last three seasons).

3*Atlanta Falcons +105 (ML)

The Colts' previous six wins have come against teams with a combined record of 24-46. Indianapolis has allowed the fifth most points (343), while the Falcons have allowed 278. Atlanta owns a +0.83 net yards per play at home, while the Colts have a -0.15 net yards per play in road tilts. I like the QB switch to Taylor Heinicke in this spot. The Falcons are ranked 3rd in third-down defense and second (tied) in red zone defense. That's a great combo against a QB (Gardner Minshew) prone to turnovers (13). It's the third road game in four weeks for Indy. Atlanta's previous three losses are by a total of eight points. The Falcons are 5-1 in their final home game of late.

4*Northern Illinois +1

Northern Illinois has dropped seven straight bowl games and should be super motivated to win this game. Arkansas State played a slightly tougher schedule, but ignoring these stats is hard. The Red Wolves own a minus- 3.4 point differential and minus- 70-yard differential per game, while the Huskies are plus- 4.1 and- plus- 48, respectively. Arkansas State went 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS while getting outgained (-155 YPG) in seven of the eight games against fellow bowl teams. Northern Illinois went 3-1 SU and 3-1 ATS while outgaining (+7) three of four matchups. Arkansas State is ranked 127th (dead last), while Northern Illinois is ranked 23rd in total defense of all the bowl teams. Defense travels well. I love the underdog!

3*Buffalo Bills -2

The Dallas Cowboys will be playing their first road game since November 19th. They are coming off a colossal division revenge victory last Sunday, where they benefited from three Eagles turnovers and ten penalties for 95 yards. Speaking of those pesky yellow flags, Dallas is ranked 32nd in penalties per game (7.5). Dallas owns net yards per play of +0.22 on the road, while Buffalo has a +1.37 net yards per play at home. The Cowboys haven’t played any game this season when the kickoff temperature is below 50 degrees. We have a 7-6 team favored over a 10-3 team. The odds-makers want you to bet on Dallas. Not so fast. Buffalo is the more desperate team and can win in this spot.

4*Chicago Bears +3.5

The Chicago Bears have been performing exceptionally well recently and have climbed up my power rankings. They have won three out of their last four games, and their defense looks impressive since they traded for edge rusher Montez Sweat. Joe Flacco had one of his best passing games in a while, but his QBR is still low at 41.5, and his lack of mobility could prove problematic, especially since offensive tackle Dawand Jones is out for the season. The Bears are ranked seventh in third-down conversion percentage, while the Browns rank 30th or 27th with Flacco playing. Despite allowing 140 yards last week, the Bears rank second in rushing yards against. Grab the 3.5 points!

3*Miami (OH) +6.5

The Miami Red Hawks have a good chance of covering the point spread with their superior defense and special teams. They have one of the best kickers in the country, Graham Nicholson, who was named first-team All-MAC. A significant factor to consider is the weather forecast, which shows a 100% chance of rain (over 1 inch) and winds of 15-35 MPH. This weather condition will negatively affect App State's passing attack and positively impact the Red Hawks running game. Miami (OH) ranks 36th against the run, while App State ranks 110th in rushing yards allowed. It is worth noting that the underdog is 4-0 ATS last four Cure Bowls, and Miami (OH) has a 6-1 ATS record in all bowl games since 1993. 

4*Chicago Bears +3.5

The Detroit Lions will be playing their second straight road game against a team with revenge coming off its BYE week. Detroit won the first meeting while outgaining the Bears by just four yards. The Lions held Jared Goff to a season-low 68.3 passer rating in perfect weather conditions. This game will be the opposite, with 50% snow showers and 15-25 MPH winds. Jared Goff has a QB rating of 93.9 outdoors and 88.0 on the natural grass compared to 101.5 indoors and 104.1 on turf. The Bears have been improving on both sides of the ball, while the Lions are slipping a bit thanks to multiple injuries at critical spots. Grab the 3.5 points!

4*San Francisco 49ers -1

The Philadelphia Eagles defense had a tough game on Sunday as they were on the field for 92 plays in their overtime victory. Facing a physical group like San Francisco, seeking revenge after losing to Philly in the NFC Championship, will be challenging. The 49ers have ten days of rest and preparation after playing on Thanksgiving, which gives them an advantage. They have better net yards per play, third-down defense, red-zone defense, opponent passer rating, and offensive and defensive DVOA. It makes sense that they are the favorites in this game. Meanwhile, the Eagles are scheduled to play the Dallas Cowboys next week, and this game might prove to be a classic schedule loss for them. This spot screams San Francisco!

5*Alabama +6

Although the Georgia Bulldogs have a better offense and defense, the Alabama Crimson Tide has a great chance to keep this within the number. Alabama has faced more formidable teams, and a win in this game is crucial for them to make the playoff bracket. My model shows that the Bulldogs will win by five points, so I am happy to take the extra point and bet on Alabama with the 6-point spread.

5*Indianapolis Colts -2

The Buccaneers have played six straight games (Week Five Bye) without rest and are coming off a physical matchup against San Francisco. I love playing on teams off their BYE with an offensive-minded head coach (Shane Steichen). Tampa Bay ranks 23rd in yards per play (4.9) and 27th in yards per play against (5.7). Indianapolis ranks 16th in yards per play (5.4) and 15th in yards per play against (5.2). Also, Tampa Bay ranks 30th in third-down defense, while the Colts rank 14th. Tampa Bay will have to rely on the pass. Not good. The Colts rank 8th in opponent passer rating, while the Bucks rank 26th. Tampa Bay ranks 27th in penalties, while the Colts rank 16th. This line should be minus 3!

10*Jacksonville State -2

The New Mexico State Aggies pulled off a major upset by defeating the Auburn Tigers as 24.5-point road underdogs last week. Win or lose, they have already qualified for the Conference USA Championship game next week. As a result, they may decide to rest some of their key players. The Jacksonville State Gamecocks have a solid rushing attack, averaging 249 yards per game. They will be going against a team that ranks 99th in success rate against the run. The Gamecocks have a strong defense, ranked 18th in yards per play against (4.7), while New Mexico State is ranked 74th (5.6). This game is crucial for Jacksonville State as they are not eligible to play in the postseason, making this their de facto bowl game.

4*TCU +10.5

The Horned Frogs feel very proud after their appearance in last year's championship game. They must pull off an upset against the Sooners to qualify for a bowl game. TCU has a positive yard differential and a solid special teams unit. Oklahoma has played a slightly more demanding schedule and is dealing with some injuries ahead of this game. Grab the points!

5*LA Rams +1

The Seattle Seahawks are tied for the NFC West's top spot. In their next four games, they will play against San Francisco twice, as well as Dallas and Philadelphia. Seattle has a negative point differential while playing the 29th most demanding schedule. On the other hand, the Rams are coming off their Bye week and are highly motivated after losing three consecutive games straight up and against the spread while playing the eighth-hardest schedule. The team will be the healthiest it's been since week one. The Rams rank 10th in third-down conversion percentage, while Seattle ranks 30th in third-down defense. Sean McVay owns Pete Carroll, having won four of the past six meetings. More of the same!

4*Arizona Cardinals +5

The Houston Texans have an impressive 5-0 record when taking points, but they have yet to cover a spread in any of their three games where they were favored. Last Sunday, Kyler Murray returned to the field and significantly impacted the Cardinals' performance. His ability to read defenses and extend drives with his legs is off the charts. The Texans' listed 18 players on Wednesday’s injury report including several key starters. The Texans have allowed the 31st most fantasy points against opposing tight ends which could lead to a big game for emerging tight end Trey McBride. Houston has a massive division game against Jacksonville on deck. Also, I like fading teams & players after record setting performances. 

4*Oregon State -2

Last year's game between Oregon State and Washington was intense. Oregon State initially took the lead, but Washington made a comeback and won the game with a field goal in the last eight seconds. QB Michael Penix Jr. had to complete 52 passes to accumulate 298 yards due to Oregon State's defense. Washington's defense is struggling, ranking 122nd against the pass and 67th in yards per play. In contrast, Oregon State is a top-20 scoring offense and ranks 16th in yards per play. QB DJ Uiagalelei brings big-game experience from his time at Clemson. Rain is expected during the game, which should benefit the Beavers, who own the better offensive and defensive lines. I like the home team!

4*Detroit Lions -130 (money line)

The LA Chargers take a significant step up in class after defeating the Bears and Jets in prime time over the past two weeks. Detroit owns a plus-0.59 net yards per play, whereas the Chargers are minus-0.30 this season. The Lions are ranked fourth in total DVOA and fifth in defensive DVOA, whereas the Chargers are ranked 12th in total DVOA and 23rd in defensive DVOA. Also, the Chargers are ranked 24th in opponent passer rating, while the Lions are ranked 11th this season. David Montgomery returns to the Lions’ backfield, which gives them a boost in the red zone. Huge rest and preparation advantage as the Chargers played on MNF while the Lions are off a BYE week.

5*Wake Forrest +2.5

Last week, NC State clinched bowl eligibility against Miami, even though they were outgained for the second straight game after upsetting Clemson. Wake Forest and NC State recently played at Duke, and the turnover margin was neutral in both matchups. Wake Forest lost by only three points despite outgaining the Blue Devils 400-267. On the other hand, the Wolfpack lost by 21 points despite outgaining Duke just 305-301. Wake Forest has won four out of six games this season on turf, while NC State will be playing its first game on turf in 2023. The Wolfpack are 3-10 against the spread on the road, including 0-3 this season. Wake Forest has won and covered their last home game in three straight seasons. 

4*Carolina Panthers +3 (-115)

Frank Reich's revenge game against the team that released him last season. Carolina's Bryce Young played very well, with a season-best 103.6 passer rating and an average of 7.6 yards per attempt in defeating Houston on a field goal as time expired. Young is expected to continue playing well against the Colts’ defense, which ranks 25th in passing yards allowed (247.3) and allows the most points per game in the NFL (28.6). The Carolina Panthers have an underrated defense, ranking eighth in third-down defense. With Thomas Brown now calling the plays, Carolina should continue improving in their second consecutive home game following another week of practice. This will be the Colts’ second game outdoors in over a month and ninth straight without a break.

4*Kansas State +4

Redshirt freshman quarterback Maalik Murphy made his first career start in place of the injured Quinn Ewers and passed for 170 yards and two touchdowns in defeating BYU 35-6. However, Murphy also had one interception and lost a fumble. He now takes a significant step up in class as Kansas State is one of six Power Five teams that rank in the top 15 nationally in both scoring offense and scoring defense. Currently, the Wildcats are ranked 13th in scoring (37.4) and 14th in points allowed (15.9) as they look to snap a six-game losing skid in this series. Kansas State is ranked ninth (55%) in third-down efficiency, while Texas is ranked 83rd (40%). An outright upset wouldn’t shock me. Grab the points!

4*Carolina Panthers +3

I've been waiting to bet on the Carolina Panthers without Frank Reich's play-calling. Offensive coordinator Thomas Brown has taken the reins, and the Houston Texans have no idea what the Panthers' offensive will look like. The Texans have a negative yard differential (outgained 430-297 in defeating New Orleans before their bye week), while the Panthers are a sneaky good team despite their 0-6 record. Carolina has a solid third-down defense, ranking fourth in the league, and an efficient red zone offense, ranking tenth. On the other hand, the Texans are struggling in third-down defense, ranking 27th, and opponent passer rating, ranking 20th. Moreover, betting on winless home underdogs after their bye week has been very profitable.

4*Green Bay Packers +1

The Minnesota Vikings have won and covered two in a row and will now travel to Green Bay, who has dropped three in a row straight-up and against the spread. The Vikings will play this division game on short rest after playing the 49ers on MNF. Seems like a very tough spot. The Packers defeated the Vikings 41-17 without CB Jaire Alexander in a cold weather game in Green Bay last season. He practiced on Wednesday and should be available for this cold weather (40 degrees) matchup. Minnesota is ranked 26th in red zone defense, 25th in third-down defense, and 23rd in red zone offense. Green Bay is ranked seventh in red zone defense, ninth in third-down defense, and eighth in red zone offense.

4*Cincinnati U +7.5

Despite only two wins, the Cincinnati Bearcats have outperformed Oklahoma State in offense and defense. They have an average of 445 yards compared to Oklahoma State's 405 yards in offense and 345 yards versus Oklahoma State's 404 yards in defense. Oklahoma State has won three consecutive games as underdogs, but will dress up as the favorite in their homecoming game. However, the Cowboys have a crucial game against Oklahoma next week, which could affect their performance. This presents an excellent opportunity for the visiting team to end their losing streak against the spread. I like the road dog!

5*Baltimore Ravens -3 (-105)

The Lions coaching staff canceled practice on Wednesday, opting for a walkthrough to rest their injured roster after six weeks of physical football. The Lions have won and covered four straight, and this is the perfect spot to sell high. Baltimore’s defense was on the field for only 46 plays in London. The Ravens are ranked third in opponent passer rating and second in red-zone defense. The Lions struggled to contain both mobile quarterbacks they faced this season: Geno Smith and Patrick Mahomes. The home team should be more accustomed to the 10-20 MPH winds in this matchup. Lastly, the Lions will host a Monday Night Football game next week for the first time since 2018.

10*Minnesota U +4.5

Iowa has won their last three games and scored 61 points while allowing only 36 points. However, they were outgained in all three games by 1,016 to 750, which is a cause for concern. This will be their eighth consecutive game without rest, and they might already be thinking about their upcoming BYE week. Meanwhile, Minnesota is seeking revenge after their 52-10 loss and has had two weeks to prepare for this game. Last year, Iowa won 13-10 despite being outgained 399-280. I am all over the road dog, especially with such a low total.

3*New England Patriots +3

New England is a professional football team, and they know that being outscored 72-3 in their last two games is unacceptable. I believe the Patriots will have success running the ball against a defense ranked 23rd against the run. Las Vegas will have one less day to prepare for the game. This doesn't bode well, especially since head coach Josh McDaniels has a career record of 19-30, including 7-12 after a win. The Patriots had a franchise-low 3rd down conversion rate of 7.14% against the Saints and failed to enter the red zone. NE owns the better 3rd down defense and has played a much tougher schedule. Belichick is 23-14 straight-up after losing two or more consecutive games, including 6-0 over the last three seasons.

5*Indianapolis Colts +4.5

This is a rematch from week one, where the Jaguars won by 10, although the final score was misleading. Both teams are closely matched, with the Colts owning a net yards per play of -0.2 and Jacksonville holding -0.6 this season. The Colts have a solid offensive line, ranked fourth, while Jacksonville is ranked 27th in sack percentage. It's a tough spot for the home team after playing back-to-back games in London. The Colts have not won in Jacksonville since 2014, so they should be highly motivated to win this game. The weather will be mild (mid 70s) with winds 10-15 MPH. Take the points in this overlay! 

3*Auburn +11.5

In last year's game, Auburn had a 17-0 lead, but they allowed a fumble return touchdown and lost to LSU 21-17 despite outgaining them 438-270. LSU is a tired team, having played their seventh straight contest and fourth consecutive game against an SEC foe. The last three games were high-scoring close affairs. Auburn is fresh off a bye and confident after a close loss to Georgia two weeks ago. Although Auburn has struggled to pass the ball, LSU's young secondary has allowed an average of 283 passing yards per game. Revenge cover!

5*Cincinnati Bengals -3

Although Josh Dobbs has been better than expected, he is not a threat to the Bengals' defense, as he primarily relies on short passes and running plays. The Cardinals recently played against the 49ers, known for their physical play. This situation is not ideal. Lou Anarumo criticized the Bengals' effort after missing 12 tackles, a three-year high. The Bengals are ranked sixth (5.3) in penalties per game, while Arizona is tied for last (8.5) through week four. Cincinnati's defensive line DVOA is ranked 7th, while Arizona allows the fifth-highest pressure rate (36.5%) per PFF. Joe Burrow is 4-1 straight-up in dome games and 8-4 SU off a loss since 2021. He told the local beat writers his calf is feeling much better. The Bengals are a tremendous buy-low team in this matchup!

5*Pittsburgh Steelers +4.5

The Steelers are back home after a disappointing game and are expected to be highly motivated in this crucial rivalry. These teams have a history of playing close games, and despite being favored only twice, the Steelers have won 5 out of 6 games against the Ravens in the last three seasons. This presents an excellent opportunity for the Steelers to bounce back as underdogs. Pittsburgh will be all in with their BYE week coming up. This game will be another closely contested match, so taking the points is a wise choice.

5*Oklahoma +6.5

The line should be a tad under five points, and I must trust my numbers. It's worth noting that although Texas defeated Alabama as 7-point road underdogs, the Crimson Tide had significant quarterback issues at the time. The Sooners will be highly motivated after losing 49-0 last year, especially since their QB Dillon Gabriel missed that game. Texas has a poor record of 1-7 against the spread before their BYE week of late. It's going to be a close match, so grab the points!

5*Indianapolis Colts  PK

The Rams will be playing their third road game in four weeks, with short rest and a body clock of 10:00 AM PT. Anthony Richardson can use his running skills effectively against the Rams' linebackers, who are ranked last at PFF. The Colts are ranked fifth in sack rate, while the Rams are ranked 24th. The Colts rank significantly higher than the Rams in special teams and total defense (DVOA). With a PFF grade of 82.8, Center Ryan Kelly returns to boost the Colts' offensive line. Indianapolis has lost eight consecutive home games and should be motivated to win for their fans' enjoyment.

5*Georgia State  PK

Georgia State has been performing well this season with a net yards per play of +1.0, while Troy has a -0.1 mark. Georgia State has won and covered against three FBS foes. On the other hand, the Trojans rank No. 130 in Red Zone defense and No. 126 in turnover margin. In comparison, Georgia State averages 37 points per game and has the nation's No. 5 squad in Red Zone defense. Moreover, Troy will be playing their third game in 14 days and fifth game in 28 days, which could put them at a disadvantage. I like the home team in this spot!

5*Coastal Carolina +6.5

Coastal Carolina has a significant rest advantage in this matchup. However, they are coming off a disappointing 30-17 loss despite outgaining GA State by 14 yards and being 5-point favorites. On the other hand, the Eagles will be playing their third game in 14 days and fifth game in 28 days, which is not an ideal schedule. Grayson McCall is a phenomenal QB who can put up points against any defense. The line between the two teams is inflated, as they have similar playing styles. I like the road dog in what should be a tight game.

5*Denver Broncos +6.5

The Dolphins are in the middle of a division sandwich, having played New England last week and with Buffalo on deck. Denver is ranked No. 1 in points per drive and will be all out to avoid a 0-3 start. This line has trap written all over it as all the bets and money are coming in on Miami, yet the line hasn't moved. Jaylen Waddle is OUT for this game with a concussion. There is a 75% chance of thunderstorms, and the wet field will slow down this Miami team. I like the Broncos in this spot!

5*Clemson +2.5

In their previous game, FSU lost the time of possession battle, as their defense was on the field for 75 plays. This week, the Seminoles will be playing their second consecutive road game. The Eagles could have won despite committing 18 penalties for 131 yards. Clemson's coaching staff still remembers how FSU avoided playing them in the 2020 season. The summer line was Clemson -4 points, and we are getting good value on the home team with the better defense.

5*New England Patriots +3

The Dolphins are in a tough spot, having traveled out to the West Coast, back home, and now up North to face the Patriots. Despite their unlucky start in week 1, we can expect the Patriots' defense to be well-prepared under the leadership of Bill Belichick. In their last two games against New England, Miami only scored 20 and 21 points, respectively. Although the Dolphins won against the poorly-coached Chargers in their first game, this matchup will be different as they will be playing outdoors on field turf instead of indoor artificial turf. Fading teams in week two after scoring 30+ and allowing 30+ has been highly profitable. I like the Pats in this spot!

4*Northern Illinois +11.5

Nebraska is back home after a demanding game at high altitude. When the total is relatively low, it's a wise choice to bet on double-digit underdogs. The Huskies have a good track record of 12-6 against the spread as an underdog and 9-4 ATS on the road over the past three seasons. On the other hand, the Cornhuskers have just a 4-8 ATS record when favored over the same period. According to my model, this line should be closer to 9 points. I like the Huskies to stay within the number!

4*Mississippi State +10

This will be the Tigers’ third game in 13 days, and temps are expected to be in the mid to upper 80s. LSU lost more players (10) to the NFL than any other team in the nation. Last year, Mississippi State allowed 21 unanswered points against LSU after leading 16-10 to begin the fourth quarter. The Rebels were 3-point road dogs and now get to play in Starkville, where they have a solid home-field advantage. LSU is 1-4 against-the-spread in their last five games as road chalk. I like the home dog!

4*Houston Texans +10

The Texans relied heavily on their first-string players in the preseason, while the Ravens did not. This is significant because Baltimore is adjusting to a new offensive scheme. Houston's defense should be better than average at the beginning of the season. Last year, the Ravens went 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS before playing the Bengals, and they have playoff revenge against Cincinnati in week two. It is advisable to bet on teams that did not make the playoffs against teams that did in week one. The Ravens are 7-16 ATS as a favorite over the last three seasons. Take the road dog and the generous 10 points!

4*Indianapolis Colts +5.5

According to PFF, the Colts' offensive line is placed at No. 10, whereas the Jaguars are at No. 26. Betting on underdogs with a better-performing offensive line has proven to be a lucrative strategy. Furthermore, the Colts are well-acquainted with the Jaguars' offensive system. Jacksonville has yet to learn what to expect from Anthony Richardson and his team. In week one, division underdogs have a high probability of covering. A solid strategy is to play on teams in their first game that missed the playoffs against teams that made it last season. I like the Colts and the points!

4*California +6.5

The Bears have improved significantly, with 16 returning starters compared to Auburn's 12. Head Coach Justin Wilcox has a career ATS record of 36-24-1 with California. Additionally, the Bears have a good record as underdogs at 8-4 ATS and have gone 6-3 ATS in September over the past three seasons. In contrast, Auburn has struggled in September with a 3-6 ATS record over the same period. Based on my Power Ratings, this spread should be closer to 4.5 points. Furthermore, Auburn will play with a body clock time of 10:30 ET. I like the home dog in this spot!

3*Duke +13.5

Brad Powers states Duke Blue Devils are ranked 11th while Clemson is ranked 53rd. This ranking is based on Bill Conelly's returning production and experience chart from Phil Steele. Both teams have dual-threat QBs; Duke's Riley Leonard had a QBR of 73.7 on 391 passing attempts, while Cade Klubnik had a 57.1 QBR on just 100 pass attempts last season. Mike Elko improved Duke from a 3-win to a 9-win team, winning the Military Bowl 30-13 over UCF. Duke has a 10-3 ATS record at home over the past three years, while the Tigers are 1-7 ATS in September over the last three seasons. This is the first matchup between these two schools since 2018, and I'm on the home dog.

4*Toledo +9.5

The Rockets, led by head coach Jason Candle, are a strong contender to win the MAC. With 16 returning starters from their nine-win season and victory in the Boca Raton Bowl, Toledo is ranked 14th in the nation for Returning production. Their secondary is one of the best in the Group of Five. Quarterback Dequan Finn, who had a successful campaign in 2022 as a passer and runner, is returning. Illinois has lost significant production and will have to start sophomore QB Luke Altmyer, who had a low QBR of 50.7 on only 54 attempts. Additionally, Altmyer rushed for only three yards on 25 carries. This is an excellent spot to back the road dog!

3*Hawaii +17.5

The Warriors seek 53-point revenge from last season's second half meltdown. The Run and Shoot is fully installed, with head coach Timmy Chang calling the plays and QB Braden Schrager better suited within it. Hawaii went 7-1 ATS in their last eight games. Vanderbilt's stadium has undergone renovations and now has a capacity of 28,500, down from 40,000+. They possess one of the worst home-field advantages (1.75) and only won five games last year, with a luck ranking of No. 11 in the nation. The Commodores rank last in SEC recruiting for the fourth time in five years and are only 3-10 ATS as home favorites over the past three seasons. Vanderbilt will miss their most promising offensive lineman due to an injury sustained in the off-season. I like the road dog in this spot!