4*San Francisco Giants +1.5  (Kershaw/Junis)

The Giants have lost seven straight to the Dodgers after getting shutout on Wednesday. Clayton Kershaw is just 2-5 in his last seven starts against the Giants. The Dodgers might be looking ahead to Friday's game against the Padres. SF faces a lefty for the second straight game, and they are ranked No. 6 in OPS vs. left-handed starters. An early day game after a night game tends to be lower scoring. I like the home team on the run line!

3*Oakland A's +1.5 (+112)  (Manoah/Irvin)

The Blue Jays have played five straight against the Tampa Bay Rays and now travel to the West Coast. Seems like a flat spot to me. I like the A's on the run line!

5*Dallas Mavericks -2

The Warriors should incur a natural letdown after that second half comeback win on Friday night. The Mavs bench should be much better at home. Dallas should be super focused in this spot!

4*Dallas Mavericks +1

The Suns shot the lights out (62.5%) from the field in Wednesday's victory. Phoenix is just 1-3 in game No. 3 of NBA postseason series of late. Dallas should be able to get better bench production at home. I think just one day rest instead of two benefits Dallas more. Take the hungry host!

4*Washington Capitals +1.5 (-125)

The Panthers haven't played a meaningful game in quite some time. When these teams met way back in November, all three games were decided by one goal. Florida went 2-5 ATS when playing three or more days of rest. Washington has a ton of experience from a Cup run in 2018. Florida is ranked No. 27 (832) in Penalty minutes, while Washington is ranked No. 5 (631). I like the Capitals on the puck line in game one.

3*Dallas Mavericks -2.5

The Mavericks are now 4-3 vs. Utah this season, with two losses by 7 points combined. I think the Mavs will play much better in Luka's second game back. I don't think the Jazz with get 42 free throw attempts either. Dallas 16-4 this season after scoring less than 100 points. Take the home team!

5*Atlanta Hawks +1.5

The Hawks return home after committing 37 turnovers in both games combined at Miami. I have no problems fading Butler and the Heat after two very impressive wins at home. The Hawks play much better at home and would expect a top-notch effort in this spot. Take the hungry host!

4*Toronto Raptors +4.5

Toronto defeated the 76ers 119-114 as 3.5-point home dogs on April 7th. The game was telling in my opinion. The Raptors were able to switch every pick & roll with their length. Philadelphia shot 52.8% from 3-point land and still lost. Don't fall asleep on this Raptors' team. Toronto owns a +2.3 point differential, while Philadelphia is +2.6 this season. Toronto has really good team chemistry and I love their head coach. Take the Raptors (plus the points) and for the series at a nice price.

5*North Carolina +4.5

I think the Tar Heels match-up quite well against this Kansas team. The Jayhawks benefited from a short-handed Villanova team. North Carolina has a huge edge in rebounding and free throw percentage. Kansas shot 53.7% from the field and 54.2% from 3-point land in beating the Wildcats. Both well above their season averages. Major fade bait now as a favorite. I like North Carolina plus the points!

5*Golden State Warriors +2

The Utah Jazz were on the road for six games, home for one game, and now hit the road again. Not an ideal spot, especially playing four games in six days. They shot 51% in their win over the LA Lakers. Big revenge game. The Warriors lost 111-85 on Feb. 9th in Utah. Golden State played really well against the Suns. No Steph. No problem tonight. Take the hungry host!

5*North Carolina +2.5

The Tar Heels have a massive advantage in rebounding. I'm shocked the line is this high. UCLA will be doing something for the first time this season, playing with six days of rest. North Carolina is 3-0 when playing six days rest, and 6-1 vs. UCLA in the past seven match-ups. I have been more impressed with North Carolina's two wins over the Bruins' two wins. Take the dog!

4*Arizona -1 (-117)

A lot of love for the Cougars right now. The Wildcats played the tougher schedule and I think that matters more in the Sweet 16. I see numerous advantages for the Wildcats. Arizona has a lot of experience against really good defensive teams this season. The Wildcats are 9-1 SU vs. teams that allow 64 points or less. Houston has very little experience against good offensive teams this season. Houston is 1-1 SU against teams that average 77 or more points. I like Arizona!

10*Illinois +4.5

Houston was on fire against UAB, shooting 53.3% from the field and 47.6% from 3-point land. That is well above their season long averages. The Cougars are ranked No. 140 in 3-point percentage and rank No. 327 in free throw percentage (66.6%). Illinois shot 38.8% from the field and 17.6% from 3-point land in that 1-point victory. Illinois will be ready as their depth should outlast Houston led by Kofi Cockburn. The Fighting Illini played the tougher schedule (No. 11 vs. 51). I think they can win this outright. Illinois is 10-1 SU after scoring 60 points or less, including 5-0 SU this season. Take the points!

5*Davidson +1.5

The wrong team is favored in my opinion. Davidson has trouble with rebounding, but the Spartans are not the type of team that can take advantage. Michigan State is one of the worst teams in terms of shot selection. They went 3-3 in their last six games and it could have been 1-5. Tyson Walker is ? for MSU. I think Dayton wins easily!

5*Murray State -1.5

The Racers can shoot and defend in the post. They have more experience, as this will be Murray State's 18th appearance in the Big Dance. The Dons went 24-9 this year after going 11-14 last year. I don't think they are ready for this type of game. Murray State has the best record in the nation (30-2) and rank No. 11 in rebounds. San Francisco comes in on a 3-0 ATS streak. Murray State is 0-3 ATS in their past three games. Take the Racers! 

5*Vermont +5.5

I always like backing single-digit underdogs in the first round on long winning streaks. The Catamounts have won eight in a row. Schematically, Vermont is off the charts effective. Arkansas did not show up in losing 82-64 as 6.5-point favorites against Texas A&M. I think Vermont can win outright. Take the points!

4*Dallas Mavs -2.5

The Nets scored 150 points on Tuesday and will now play without K. Irving who scored 60 points. This will be the Nets' third game in four days. New Jersey is 2-9 SU when playing back-to-back games this year. Dallas is 13-4 SU after scoring 100 points or less and 6-3 SU when playing with two days of rest. Take the toad team!

4*South Carolina +4.5

South Carolina defeated Mississippi State by 10 points on Feb. 23rd. They are the perfect opponent for SC. Both teams struggle with 3-pointers this season. Miss State shoots 29.3%. South Carolina shoots 31.8%. The Gamecocks allowed 81 points in an 11-point loss at Auburn on March 5. South Carolina is 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS after allowing 80+ points this season. Miss State is 8-14 SU against winning teams this season. Rocket Watts is OUT for SC. This line seems inflated. Take the points!

4*Charlotte Hornets +7.5

Both teams come in off losses to the New Jersey Nets. The Celtics beat the Nets 126-120 on Sunday, thanks in part to J. Tatum posting a season-high 54 points. The Hornets lost 132-121 as K. Irving posted 50 points in Tuesday's win. Charlotte has allowed two players score 50+ points in two straight games. Boston is just 2-5 ATS when playing with two days rest. This is a must play on the home team plus the points.

10*Syracuse -1

The Orange have lost three straight and now return for their final home game of the season. Miami is coming off a win at BC, shooting 56.4% from the field and 47.6% from beyond the arc. Both are well-above their season average. Syracuse will look to avenge an 88-87 loss back in Jan. The Orange blew an 18-point halftime lead, while committing a season-high 19 turnovers. According to Marc Lawrence's Playbook, Syracuse is 13-5 SU and 13-5 ATS in their last home game, including 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS when playing three or more days of rest, with an average win margin of 23 points per game. Take the hungry host!

4*Memphis Grizzlies -2.5

The T-wolves have nobody on their roster that can stop Ja Morant. Very few teams do. The Grizzlies are 18-9 SU vs. winning teams while Minnesota is 12-17 this season. I like Memphis to get another win on the road!

5*Florida PK

The Gators need a signature win against a ranked opponent in a big way. Arkansas allowed just 48 points in defeating Tennessee last week. The Razorbacks have played numerous high-energy games of late. I think it will catch up against this solid Florida team. 

5*Miami-FL -1.5

The Cavaliers shot a season-high 60% from the field and 53% from beyond the arch in handing the Hurricanes their first conference loss of the season. Miami has been superb against good defensive teams (allowing less than 64 points) going 18-5 ATS, including 4-1 this season. I like Miami in this one!

5*Brooklyn Nets +2.5

The Nets will be getting some reinforcements, looking to end its 11-game losing skid. The Kings shot a season-high 56.6% from the field in their victory over Washington. I really like the Nets in this spot who are extremely motivated tonight.  

4*Washington Wizards +3

The Kings are coming off a two-game series against Minnesota. I love fading losing teams on the road after scoring 130+ points. Sacramento is 1-8 SU after scoring 130+ points, including 0-4 this season. The Wizards should have a lot of confidence after defeating the Nets. Take the home team!

4*Mississippi State +1.5

The Volunteers have won two straight, scoring 171 points combined while shooting well-above their season average (69.7%) at the free throw line. This is a great spot for the Bulldogs as they are 11-2 SU after scoring 60 or fewer points, including 2-0 this season. Mississippi State needs a win over a ranked team to impress the Big Dance selection committee. I think they get one tonight! 

5*Colorado State -2.5

The Aztecs defeated the Rams by 30 points on 1/8/22. The original team had Covid-19 concerns, so the Rams were forced to play at SD State with very little prep time. The Aztecs handed Colorado State their first loss of the season. The Rams have been waiting for this rematch. San Diego State has a revenge game against Nevada on Sunday. Take the hungry host!

4*Northwestern +4.5

Illinois played short-handed against MSU and came away with a 1-point victory. The team remains short-handed in this matchup against NW. The Wildcats are ranked No. 1 in assist to turnover ratio in the nation. Northwestern has lost three in a row and four straight on its home floor. I would expect a really good effort by the Wildcats in this one.

4*Creighton +2.5

The Blue Jays get their coach back for this revenge game. In the first meeting, Xavier overcame a halftime deficit as Creighton committed 21 turnovers. The Blue Jays are coming off a horrific shooting performance from the field (35.6%) and beyond the arch (9.1%) Xavier is coming off an emotional loss as Providence nailed a 3-pointer with 1.5 seconds left on the clock. I like the home team in this spot!

4*Detroit Pistons +3.5

Detroit has lost three straight, including a home-and-home with Denver. The Pistons defeated the Magic earlier this month in Detroit while being short-handed. I just think it's a tough match-up for this Magic team right now. Detroit plays their best defense with two days of rest (18-12 ATS past three years). The Magic are a lowly 3-18 SU at home this season. Take the Pistons and the points!

4*Central Florida +4.5

I like the Knights in this spot getting points. UCF is 7-4 SU against winning teams. I have this game power-rated at 2.5 points. Great value on the road team!

5*Kansas City Chiefs -1.5

There is a lot of support for the Bills. I guess their looking at Buffalo's superb 4.6 opponent yards per play. Not so fast. They faced a plethora of sub-par quarterbacks. The Bills (16th) played the easier schedule than Kansas City (4th). I just can't get the fact out of my mind that Buffalo lost to the Jaguars. The Chiefs are 10-1 SU in their past 11 games, holding opponents to 16.5 points per game. The Bills literally played a perfect game on offense last week. No punts, no fumbles lost, no interceptions, no field goals. Just a touchdown on seven straight drives until the kneel down. It will be loud, making it very difficult for Josh Allen to improvise. He does that quite often. Kansas City went 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS vs winning teams, while the Bills went 2-3 SU and 2-3 ATS vs winning teams. Buffalo is also 2-3 SU on a grass field, while Kansas City went 11-4 SU. Patrick Mahomes ll is 7-2 SU in the playoffs, only losing to Tom Brady. The Bills defeated the Chiefs earlier this season in Kansas City. I love Andy Reid and the Chiefs in this rematch. Lay it!

3*Miami Florida -2

FSU has defeated the Hurricanes in eight straight meetings, including a 1-point victory this past week. The Hurricanes should be pumped-up at home in this revenge spot.

4*Chicago Bulls +3

The Cavs are in a tough spot coming off what their coach called " a signature win" over the Nets. Cleveland was on the road for six games, played one home game and now hit the road again. Very tough spot. The Bulls are eager to end its four-game losing skid. Take the Bulls in this upset maker!

5*Philadelphia Eagles +9

The Eagles have a Top four offensive line which helps lead Philadelphia to a 4.9 yards per rush average. They also own the better special teams unit which could be a factor in the rain/wind. A cold front is scheduled to sweep across Tampa, FL right about game time. The Forecast calls for Rain (0.50 inch) and very windy conditions (20-30 MPH, with gusts near 40 MPH) so the underdog gets the call in this one. Tampa Bay went 1-5 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points in the regular season. Down to wire!

10*Cincinnati Bengals -5.5

The Las Vegas Raiders escaped with a 35-32 OT win late Sunday night, despite getting outgained by 94 yards. The Raiders' defense was on the field for 88 plays and 38:41 of field time. Seven of the Raiders' 10 wins have occurred indoors. Las Vegas will be playing their first game in sub-freezing temps in quite some time. I think traveling East and playing Saturday at 4:30 PM E is not an ideal spot. The Raiders have a -3.8 point differential and these teams don't perform well on the road in the playoffs. On the flip side, the Bengals have a +5.0 point differential. The Raiders commit the second-most penalties per game, while the Bengals commit the second-fewest. No revenge for Las Vegas. Take the Bengals!

3*Central Florida +2

This is a classic wise guy handicap where one team (Memphis) has shot the lights out in two straight games, while the other team (UCF) has shot well below their season average in their last two games. A regression and progression to the means usually happens. Take the home team with the better defense.

5*LA Rams -4

As a local, I have a pretty good read on this team. The Rams are sick & tired of hearing how the 49ers have dominated them in the past (5-0 L5). Jimmy G is not 100% healthy. Trey Lance is still a rookie making his second career road start. Whichever QB starts for SF, the Rams have the edge in my opinion. The Rams (6th) have played a much tougher schedule than SF (22nd). The Rams are ranked No. 6 in special teams, while the 49ers are ranked No. 27 this season. SF is 2-2 SU and 1-4 ATS on turf, while the Rams are 9-2 SU and 7-4 ATS on turf this season. The public is all over the underdog making the 49ers a square dog. Take the Rams (minus the points) to the bank!

4*FSU -4.5

The Seminoles are coming off a non-effort against Wake Forest. FSU shot 24.2% from the field, including 16% (4-for-25) from beyond the arc. It was the Seminoles most lopsided conference defeat since 2017 and worst shooting performance since 2010. Louisville was been winning close games of late. I like the home team in this spot!

3*Georgetown +2.5

This line is way too high even though Georgetown hasn't played since Dec. 18th. Marquette is coming off an upset win against Providence. The Golden Eagles shot 52.5% from the field, 43.5% from 3-point land, and 88.9% from the FT line, while scoring a season-high 88 points. Marquette is 5-14 ATS (0-2 TY) vs. teams that average 77 or more points per game. I like the home team in this spot!

5*Washington Football Team +3.5

The Eagles defeated Washington just 12 days ago by 10 points. The Football Team were missing numerous starters including their top two QB's. The Football team return home after getting embarrassed at Dallas. I would expect a much better effort. The Eagles will be without leading rusher Miles Sanders and QB J. Hurts is playing with an ankle injury. I think we're getting two points of value in this division game. I'm going against the public in this one. Take the points!

10*Baltimore Ravens +5.5

This will be the Rams' third game in 12 days after having to play on Tuesday, Dec. 21. This will also be the Rams' first back to back road trip without extra rest this season. This game was originally scheduled for 4:25 PM E. Now, it's an early game (10:00 AM body clock) for the Rams, who had to fly back to the West Coast after playing at Minnesota. No Lamar is fine by me. Tyler Huntley has a QBR of 58.9, while Lamar's QBR is 50.1. QBR is a percentage so anything over 50 is above average. By comparison, P. Mahomes QBR is 59.0, which shows just how well Huntley has played.

The Rams have been outgained in four of their past six games, while the Ravens have outgained opponents in four of their past five. The Ravens are ranked No. 3 in third-down defense, while the Rams are ranked No. 20 this season. Look at the Rams when they don't play on turf. They are 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS when playing on a grass surface this season. The Rams are also 1-3 ATS vs. winning teams. The Ravens are 9-3 ATS as underdogs over the past three seasons, including 4-1 ATS this year. The Ravens get numerous key defensive players back after having to sit out due to Covid restrictions. Take the Ravens in their Super Bowl!

4*Oklahoma State +2.5

I think losing HC Brian Kelly to USC doesn't bode well for ND in this game. The Fighting Irish will be without their top RB (Williams) and top Safety (Hamilton) as well. The Cowboys played a tougher schedule (.575 vs .505) and own the better defense. Oklahoma State's defensive line is ranked No. 3, while ND is ranked No. 59 this season. ND is ranked No. 112 in third-down efficiency. The Fighting Irish went 6-1 SU against other bowl teams, getting outgained in four of the seven. The Cowboys went 7-2 SU against fellow bowl teams, outgaining six of nine foes. Notre Dame has played in seven NY6/BCS bowl games since 2000. They are 0-7 SU and 0-7 ATS, with a 102-263 point differential. Take the underdog!

5*Air Force +1.5

The Falcons have the significantly better defense line (#37 vs. #98) and overall defense (#47 vs. #71). That travels well this time of year. Air Force is 23-8 SU over the past three seasons. Teams have fits trying to contain the Falcons' run-heavy offense. When the Falcons do throw, they average 9.5 yards per pass. Louisville was last seen allowing 52 points, 362 rushing yards, and 511 total yards in a loss against Kentucky. This will be the Cardinals' 10th bowl game in 12 years. They sport a 5-4 SU & 5-4 ATS record. I love the fact that Air Force is 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS on turf this season, while Louisville is just 4-5 SU & 4-5 on turf. The Falcons have a fast, ball-hawking defense (19.1 ppg) that performs well on turf. Louisville went 2-6 SU against other bowl teams, while Air Force went 3-3. Do note the Falcons outgained five of the six. Finally, Air Force is 5-1 ATS as a neutral-field underdog of 3 points or less since 1993. Take the dog! 

5*Minnesota Vikings +3

Both teams will be playing with short rest, but the Rams are in the tougher spot. They have won and covered three straight games. LA is 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS after winning three straight since 2018. The Vikings have played 11 straight games decided by single digits. They are the only team not to drop any game by more than 8 points. Minnesota was lucky to win at Chicago and should play much better returning home. The Vikings are ranked No. 3 in QB sacks (44) and ranked No. 2 in QB sacks allowed (22) this season. Strong combo. Imagine you're a football team (LAR) having to prepare/play for a night game than travel five days later for a 1:00 PM E (10:00 AM body clock) game in week 16. The Vikings own the fifth-best special teams unit, while the Rams are ranked No. 17 this season. Kirk Cousins does his best work (58.4% ATS) in this time slot (1:00 PM E). Take the home underdog plus the points.

10*Central Florida +6.5

Motivation plays a big part when handicapping Bowl games. The Gators played three straight major bowl games past three seasons and now have to settle for this minor bowl game. Florida will be without departed head coach Dan Mullen and most of his staff. Future NFL studs DE Zach Carter and WR Jacob Copeland are OUT as well. It's likely more Gators will opt out. Florida went 6-6 SU and 3-9 ATS, while ranking No. 121 in net turnover margin. Florida went 1-6 SU against bowl teams. Both squads have comparable offensive lines (38th and 39th). UCF is ranked No. 57 in defensive line play, while the Gators are ranked No. 96. Missing DE Zach Carter and his team-leading 8 sacks with 12 tackles for a loss only adds to their misery.

UCF head coach Gus Malzahn has sneaky revenge in this game. His Auburn Tigers lost to Florida 24-13 as 2.5-point underdogs in 2019. Gus is 21-11 ATS in his career seeking revenge. UCF has edges in red-zone scoring and penalties committed. UCF has the better offense and defense against fellow bowl teams. UCF won this Bowl (Gasparillia) game two years ago. Last year, UCF dropped the Boca Raton Bowl 49-23 against BYU. Take the Knights plus the points and try a slice on the money line! 

5*Atlanta Falcons +9

This line seems inflated to me by at least 1.5 points. The Falcons have been much better in the trenches since their BYE week, so the season long stats are skewed quite a bit. Atlanta defeated the 49ers back in 2019, as 10.5-point underdogs at Levi's Stadium. The 49ers are 1-11-1 in their past 13 games as a favorite. SF is 3-10 ATS vs. losing teams of late. This game qualifies as a highly profitable system play. Home favorites following an OT game. Theses teams are 37-58-4 ATS (38.9%) since 2008. This angle also applies to the Saints this week. The Falcons are 7-2 ATS in the last four weeks of the regular season past three years. The 49ers play at Tennessee on Thursday so not much reason to win by margin. Take the road dog!

5*Marshall +6

UL Lafayette is coming off a victory over App. State for the second time this season. This seems like a flat spot after that sparkling performance. Marshall lost 53-21 at home against Western Kentucky in their final game of the regular season. The Thundering Herd average +1.3 net yards per play while UL owns a +0.9 net yards per play. Marshall has the better offense, special teams and red-zone stats. This game will be played at the Superdome in New Orleans. It's important to know that the playing surface (Turf Nation) is completely different than UL's home stadium, Cajun Field (Artificial turf). The Herd are 12-4 SU & 12-4 ATS in all bowl games since 1993. Marshall is 5-1 ATS in their past six games after allowing 40+ points. UL is 3-6 ATS as chalk this season. UL is 7-16 SU against Conference USA opponents since 1993. Look for the Rajin' Cajunes fall to 0-5 ATS in bowl games of late. Take the points and try a slice on the money line!

5*Cincinnati Bengals +1.5

Tough spot for the 49ers with cluster injuries at RB and CB. Not to mention their first back-to-back road trip this season, and third road game in 22 days. The 49ers are 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS on turf this season. The turf in Cincinnati (Shaw Sports Momentum Pro) is completely different than the turf in Seattle (Field turf). The Bengals' offensive line is ranked No. 10 at Football Outsiders, while SF is ranked No. 19 this season. Cincinnati will be getting both starting tackles back after missing last week's home loss. The Bengals are ranked No. 4 against the run, while SF is ranked No. 18 this season. Cincinnati commits the fewest penalties per game (4.2) and are 6-1 ATS after a double digit loss at home. The Bengals are ranked No. 10 in special teams, while the 49ers are ranked No. 22 this season. Coldest game of the season for SF to date. They are 0-2 SU in cold weather games (40 or below at kickoff), but the kick-off temp should be closer to 44 degrees. I thought it was worth mentioning. Take the hungry host!

4*Sacramento Kings +6.5

Both teams played yesterday. Sacramento's Fox missed two free throws for the win. The Cavs had a season-high 7 players reach double figures in shooting over 52% from the field. This will be Cleveland's fourth game in six games. Very tough. The Cavs are 1-18 SU and 4-14 ATS vs. Pacific Division foes. The Kings are 20-10 ATS when playing the second of back-to-back games. I like the road team in this spot!

5*Detroit Lions +7

This will be the Vikings' fourth road game in five weeks. Two of those games were on the West coast. The Lions will have three extra days of rest after playing on Thanksgiving. The Lions are allowing 4.3 yards per rush, while Minnesota is allowing 4.8 this season. The Lions have the better offensive line, defensive line, and total defense at Football outsiders. Also, the Lions have the fourth-best special teams in all of football. If D. Swift doesn't play, Jamaal Williams is more than capable. The Vikings defense will be without E. Griffen, D. Hunter, and Patrick Peterson. Hunter & Griffen had three sacks and one forced fumble combined in the first matchup. Teams are 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS after playing the San Francisco 49ers this season. The Vikings play (Steelers) Thursday night so no reason to win by margin. Take the winless home underdog with the better defense!

3*Sacramento Kings +8.5

Both teams will be playing its third game in four days. The Kings committed 19 turnovers and shot 20.6% from beyond the arc last night. I like the fact that Sacramento just played at Staples while defeating the LA Lakers. The Kings are 3-1 SU in their past four meetings against LAC at Staples. Take the road dog!

4*Denver Broncos +3

Love the Broncos as division home underdogs. Denver is ranked No. 4 in opponent passer rating which should matchup well against the pass-happy Chargers. LA scored 40+ points last week and now travel to high-altitude. The Broncos are 2-0 ATS after their BYE week of late. Denver is 23-6 SU and 21-6 ATS when playing with two weeks of rest. The Chargers are 2-7 SU in weeks 10 thru 13 of late. Take the Broncos in this one!

4*California +6.5

The Bears had two dozen players (including QB) and coaches out with Covid in a loss against Arizona. They all returned in a dominating performance against Stanford last week. California needs two wins to become bowl eligible. UCLA has a bowl game already wrapped up with no chance of winning the PAC 12. California is ranked No. 36 in net yards per play. UCLA is ranked No. 55 in net yards per play. The Bruins are 0-6 ATS after playing USC of late. UCLA is 1-4 SU and 1-4 ATS after two or more consecutive wins the past three years. The Bears are 10-2 ATS as an underdog past 12 tries. I like the road dog!

5*Indianapolis Colts +7.5

I just think the Colts physical style of play can keep this one close in bad weather. The Colts are well-coached and have familiarity with Buffalo. The Bills defeated Indy 27-24 as 7-point home favorites back in Jan. despite getting outgained 472-397. Nice revenge spot. Take the road dog!

5*Houston Texans +10.5

Tyrod Taylor should be much better with a game in hand and more reps during their BYE week. His running and escape-ability plays well as big underdog. The Titans have played 11 straight weeks with five signature wins in a row. Tennessee has been outgained by 262 combined yards in their past two wins. Red flag. Seems like a flat spot with the New England Patriots on deck. Tennessee has a massive injury list. Take the road dog!

10*Oregon State +3

The Sun Devils have a very slim chance of catching Utah for the Pac-12 crown. Arizona State needed to score 21 fourth-quarter points in defeating Washington last week. The Beavers have advantages in points, yards, red-zone efficiency, special teams, and they are the more disciplined team. Oregon State has the No. 1 ranked offensive line at Football Outsiders. The Beavers overall power rating has increased every week. This will be the first back-to-back road trip for ASU all season. The Sun Devils are 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS in the second game of a back-to-back. Check this out. Arizona State is 2-5 SU in cold weather games when traveling to CO, OR, UT, and WA. The Sun Devils are 3-8 ATS as road chalk in their past 11 games. Oregon State is 7-1 ATS at home of late. Arizona State has played just two games on Field turf this season, going 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS. Oregon State is 5-2 SU and 5-2 ATS on the same surface (Field turf). I like the Beavers plus the points in this spot. Try a slice on the money line!

4*Memphis +9.5

This will be the Houston Cougars' fourth game in twenty days. Big advantage for Memphis. Both teams won and covered recently against SMU. Houston was +1 while Memphis was +3 playing at SMU. This line seems very high to me. Memphis has a really good offensive line (No. 39) and they even had the better stats against a common opponent. Houston is 3-11 ATS in their past 14 games after a SU win of 20+ points. Memphis is 6-0 ATS in this series of late. The Tigers won three games outright as underdogs. More of the same! 

5*LA Chargers -2.5

This will be the first West Coast game for the Vikings this season. Kirk Cousins sports a 1-5 SU record when playing on the West Coast with Minnesota. The Vikings played a physical overtime game against Baltimore last week, in which their defense was on the field for 89 plays and 46:04 of field time. The Chargers own a +0.3 yard differential, while the Vikings are -0.1 this season. Justin Herbert's QBR is 64.1 while Cousins' QBR is 55.3. The Chargers offensive line is ranked No. 17, while the Vikings are ranked No. 28 at Football Outsiders. NFL teams are 2-4 SU and 2-4 ATS after playing the Ravens without rest this season. Minnesota possibly missing six starters on defense and they play Green Bay at home next week. Take LAC!

5*Syracuse +3

The Orange had this game circled ever since the schedule was released. Syracuse lost 30-0 in Louisville last season. In a schedule quirk, they now return to the same venue with extra prep time, in hopes of becoming bowl-eligible. Syracuse is one of the most improved teams across the board. The Orange own a +1.3 net yard differential, while Louisville owns a +0.7. Syracuse owns the better offensive line, defensive line, and overall defense. The Orange play NC State and Pittsburgh who will be significant favorites. Look for the Orange to win outright and improve to 9-1 ATS this season.

5*San Francisco 49ers +2.5

The 49ers bring in the better offensive and defensive lines at Football Outsiders. SF defensive line is ranked No. 5 while Arizona is ranked No. 21. Kyler Murray is questionable to start. I'm hearing Arizona wants to hold him out until he's 100% healthy. That won't be this week. Colt McCoy will start for Arizona. The 49ers lost 17-10 earlier this season, despite out-gaining Arizona 338-304. Kyle Shanahan knows how to defend Murray just in case he starts. I think this is the perfect time to start fading Kliff Kingsbury and company. Kyle Shanahan is 8-4 SU & 8-4 ATS in revenge games over the past three years. Take the home dog!

4*Memphis +5

SMU suffered its first loss of the season last week and will now have to get motivated for another road game at Memphis. Tough ask considering the Mustangs are 3-9 ATS as road favorites past 12 tries. The Tigers are 5-2 ATS after their BYE week and will be playing with revenge from last year's setback. Memphis has a really good offensive line (#24 at Football Outsiders) that should negate SMU's solid defensive line. Take the home team plus the points in this spot!

10*Indianapolis Colts +1.5

The Colts are ranked No. 15 in overall team efficiency, while the Titans are ranked No. 20 at Football Outsiders. The Titans have a -0.4 net yard differential, while the Colts have a 0.0 net yard differential through the first seven weeks. The Colts are really good in same-season revenge games at home. The Titans defeated the Colts 25-16, as 5-point home chalk despite having a -3 turnover differential. It was a 1-point game entering the 4th quarter. Tennessee has won & covered three straight games with an impressive +51 ATS margin. This is a huge letdown spot for a team that has allowed 21 sacks (28th) and will be playing inside a dome for the first time this season. The Titans will be without their top three tackles which makes this play even stronger. The Colts are ranked No. 12 against the run, while the Titans are ranked No. 22 this season. The Colts are 8-2 straight-up in October over the past three seasons and 7-3 ATS at home against the Titans. Take the home dog!

4*North Carolina +4

The Fighting Irish have played the tougher schedule which I respect a great deal. North Carolina has a +1.2 net yards per play differential, while Notre Dame has a -0.1 net yards per play differential this season. That's a massive difference especially in this spot. The big advantage for the Tar Heels is on the offensive line. North Carolina is ranked No. 19, while Notre Dame is ranked No. 97 at Football Outsiders. North Carolina has revenge from last year's loss and two weeks to prepare. ND defeated USC last week despite getting outgained 424-383. Red flag. The Fighting Irish are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS after playing the Trojans of late. I will side the with Tar Heels plus the points in this one! 

3*San Francisco 49ers -4

The Colts want to run the ball to setup play-action. The 49ers strength is their run defense as they have't allowed a 100-yard rusher in 25 consecutive games, the longest active streak in the NFL. San Francisco has two weeks to prepare for a hobbled Colts' team in this prime-time affair. East Coast teams playing in Prime-time (8:00 PM E or later) on the West coast have been a solid play against, as the West Coast teams are 52-29-6 ATS. The Colts defeated Houston 31-3 last week and out-gained the Texans by just a 388-353 mark. The Colts have a huge division game against the Titans next week. Take the hungry host! 

3*Philadelphia Eagles +3

The Eagles have 10 days to prepare coming off Thursday's loss against Tampa Bay. Philadelphia has played the 6th-toughest schedule so far this season. Trap line. You have a 4-2 home team vs. 2-4 road team "only" laying a FG. This line suggests the Eagles and Raiders are just about even on a neutral field. There will be 40% Eagles' fans which adds value to this line. The Raiders were all in last week. I see a major letdown before their BYE week. Las Vegas is 3-9 ATS as a favorite over the past three years. Take the Eagles plus the points!

4*Cincinnati Bengals +6.5

The Bengals scored 6 points combined in losing both meetings last season. The Ravens beat up the Bengals pretty good. Baltimore will be missing numerous key players that made a huge difference last season. The Bengals net yards per play is +0.8, while the Ravens are +0.1 this season. Cincinnati has the 6th-best offensive line, while the Ravens have the 24th-best according to Football Outsiders. The Bengals are ranked No. 2 in opponent net yards per play while the Ravens are ranked No. 21 this season. The Bengals are ranked No. 6 in opponent passer rating while the Ravens are ranked No. 13. Joe Burrow and JaMarr Chase can't be stopped in the 4th quarter so the backdoor will always be open. Take the road dog! 

3*Atlanta Braves +1.5 (-107)  (Scherzer/Anderson)

Max Scherzer will be pitching with one extra day of rest after complaining that his arm felt "dead". I'm sure he will pitch well enough until the bullpen takes over at some point. The Dodgers have played five one-run games this postseason. That's why I like the run line only laying -107. Great value in game six!

5*Minnesota -5

Last year, the Golden Gophers blew a 17-point lead at the end of the third quarter. Maryland won 45-44 as 17.5-point home underdogs. Maryland celebrated on the field without any fans. Minnesota was not happy and have circled this game. The Terrapins will be without both starting wide receivers from last year. Jeshaun Jones and Dontay Demus Jr. each had 100+ receiving yards and one TD. Not in this game. Maryland is also without their best linebacker. Minnesota has a solid backup RB to replace Potts who is out of the year.

All the advanced metrics point to the home team covering easily. Maryland is ranked No. 81 in total offense, while Minnesota is ranked No. 46 at Football Outsiders. Maryland is ranked No. 95 in total defense, while Minnesota is ranked No. 40 this season. Maryland is ranked No. 115 in special teams, while the Golden Gophers are ranked No. 43 this season. Minnesota is ranked No. 39 overall, while Maryland is ranked No. 91 this season. Minnesota has played the 26th-toughest schedule. Maryland has played the 48th-toughest. Maryland is 0-4 SU and 0-4 ATS after playing Ohio State of late. Maryland is 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS vs. winning teams over the past eight tilts. Lets take the home team in this one!

5*Las Vegas Raiders +4

5*Detroit Lions +3.5

The Lions return to Ford Field for their only home game in a four week span. The Lions are playing hard and will continue to play hard. They love their coach. The Lions will be getting back two key players. Expect WR Tyrell Williams and DE Kevin Strong to be activated after both starters went down with a concussion in week one. The Bengals are coming off an emotional OT loss against the Packers. Teams are just 1-3 SU after playing Green Bay this season. The Bengals' three wins have come against teams with a combined 4-11 record. Take the Lions plus the points and try a slice on the money line!  

4*Oklahoma State +5.5

Seems like a game that the Cowboys have circled on their schedule. Texas defeated OK State 41-34 as 3.5 road underdogs, despite getting outgained 530-287 last season. Oklahoma State had a -4 turnover differential. That loss was followed by four more setbacks as the Cowboys' 2020 season spun out of control. Texas is coming off a disappointing loss against Oklahoma while the Cowboys have two weeks to prepare for this revenge game. Oklahoma State is 6-1 ATS in their past seven road games as underdogs. I'll take the points with the better defense in this one!

5*San Francisco 49ers +5.5

The 49ers have the better offensive and defensive lines at Football Outsiders. San Francisco defeated the Cardinals 20-12 as 6-point road underdogs last December with C. J Beathard under center. The Cardinals have very little film on Trey Lance which is going to be a big factor in this game. Don't forget, the 49ers have played more games in Arizona than normal due to the pandemic. The 49ers outgained Seattle by 200+ yards last week. This is a great spot to take the points in a division game!

4*Cincinnati Bengals +3

This is one of the stronger technical plays in quite some time. Green Bay is favored from name recognition only. The Packers are ranked No. 23 in total defense while the Bengals are ranked No. 5 at Football Outsiders. The Packers are ranked No. 31 in opponent red zone scoring while the Bengals are ranked No. 12. The Packers have played a slightly tougher schedule, but the Bengals are at home with extra time to prepare and get healthy. The Bengals defense is ranked No. 5 (86.5) in opponent passer rating while Green Bay is ranked No. 18 (100.2). The Bengals are ranked No. 4 in special teams while Green Bay is ranked No. 19. The Packers will be missing numerous key personnel on defense which makes these stats even stronger. Joe Burrow's QBR is 53.8. Aaron Rogers' QBR is 55.8. Not much difference. Love winning teams getting points at home with the much better defense. Take the home dog in this upset maker!

4*Utah +3

Utah is allowing 4.1 yards per play while USC is allowing 5.8 yards per play this season. Utah will be playing this revenge game with two weeks to prepare. Utah is 2-1 SU and 2-1 ATS after their BYE week of late. Utah is 12-4 SU and 11-5 ATS against the Pac-12 over the past three seasons. Utah is 9-1 SU and 9-1 ATS off a win against a conference rival. USC is just 5-8 ATS in that same role. Bottom line is we're getting 3 points with the better offensive line and better overall defense. Sign me up!

3*St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 -105 (Wainwright/Scherzer)

Both starters come into this game with an ERA over 5.00 in their past three starts. All the pressure is on the home team after winning 106 games in the regular season. The Dodgers will be without All-Star Max Muncy, who led the team with 36 HR and 94 RBI. He's also a plus defender at first base. The LA Dodgers are not as deep in year's past, especially with Cody Bellinger hitting .165 with an OPS of .542 in 350 plate appearances. His WAR (wins above replacement) is -1.5 this season. Gut feeling says take Cardinals on the run line!

4*Carolina Panthers +5

The Panthers have 10 days to prepare after having won in Texas on Thursday night. Dallas is coming off a division win against a rookie head coach on MNF and now must play on short rest at 1:05 PM E. Dallas is caught in a Philly/Carolina/NYG sandwich. Just seems like a bad spot to me. I have many notes going back to the early 2000's that says fade Dallas at home against winning teams when playing at 1:05 PM E. It's not a start time they are accustomed too. Carolina is ranked No. 1 in third-down defense and No. 11 in third down conversion percentage. You know how intelligent of a head coach I believe Matt Rhule is. He won't get out-coached. Dallas is 1-9 SU in their last 10 games against winning teams. Dallas is 1-6 ATS in their past seven October games. I think we're getting one point of value so lets grab the five points ASAP. 

4*New York Jets +7

The Titans are dealing with numerous injuries up and down the roster. It looks like AJ Brown and Julio Jones will be out. Even if those two play, it won't be at a high level. New York will able to focus on stopping D. Henry. The Jets are coming off a humiliating loss scoring 0 points. Returning home is the key handicap. The Jets have a sneaky good defense especially against the run. The Jets are ranked No. 13 against the run while the Titans are ranked No. 24 at Football Outsiders. Tennessee is only ranked three spots higher in overall team efficiency. The Jets should be able to run the ball on this over-rated Titans' defense. That should open up some nice play-action completions for Wilson and company. The Jets are ranked No. 14 in special teams while Tennessee is ranked No. 27 thru three weeks. Take the Jets in this upset special! 

4*Arizona State +3.5

UCLA defeated the Sun Devils 25-18 last season despite getting outgained 442-363. Arizona State has the pieces to win this game outright. The Sun Devils are allowing 4.1 yards per play while UCLA is allowing 5.3 this season. DTR doesn't look 100% healthy to me. Fresno State is built very similar to Arizona State and the Bulldogs beat UCLA outright as 11-point dogs. The Sun Devils are ranked No. 12 in special teams. Love the coach (Herm Edwards) in revenge games. Arizona State is 5-1 ATS in their past six games as underdogs. Take the road dog!

4*Minnesota Vikings +2

Minnesota returns home and could easily be 2-0 instead of 0-2. The Seahawks defeated the Vikings 27-26 as 6.5-point home chalk last year despite getting outgained 449-314. Minnesota had a 31-18 First down advantage too. After two games, the Vikings are ranked No. 2 in third-down defense while the Seahawks are ranked No. 17. Lastly, the Seahawks played on the road, than at home, now another road game. Teams in this role to begin the season have been a solid play against in game three. Take the hungry host!

5*LA Rams +1.5

Tampa Bay is 2-0 (at home) this season despite getting outgained in both games. The Buccaneers have won 10 straight dating back to last season, scoring 30+ points in nine straight games which is an NFL record. The Rams have a lot of confidence going into this game. They defeated the Bucs 27-24 at Tampa with Goff (376 passing yards) under center last season. LA outgained TB 413-251. Tom Brady was 26-of-48 for 216 yards. Matthew Stafford has a QBR of 78.1 through two games while Tom Brady has a 65 QBR. This will be the Buccaneers first game on Turf in quite some time, not to mention first game outside the Eastern Time Zone. Antonio Brown is OUT, who is a key weapon on the outside and running jet sweeps. Brady and company might be looking ahead to next week's date with the New England Patriots. Take the Rams in this upset maker!

5*Baylor Bears +7

Both teams step up in class this afternoon. I believe Baylor is underrated while the overall market is pretty high on Iowa State. I have this game closer to the opening number of five. Iowa State defeated Baylor 38-31 as 14-point road favorites despite getting outgained 366-362 last season. Two seasons ago, Baylor defeated Iowa State 23-21 as 2.5-point home dogs. Baylor is 12-4 ATS as an underdog in their past 16 games. Finally, Iowa State will be playing the second of back-to-back road games for the first time in well over two years. Take the Bears plus the points. Try a slice on the money line as well.

5*Philadelphia Eagles +3.5

Both teams are coming off week 1 victories in relatively easy fashion. Remember, no NFL team is as good or bad as they looked the previous week. I was more impressed with the Eagles, who used physical play in dominating the Falcons as 3.5-point underdogs. The 49ers allowed the Lions to almost pull off a miracle comeback, while losing two key starters (RB1, CB1) to injury. Detroit had 31 First downs while SF had 21. After week one, Football Outsiders ranks the Eagles' defense eight spots higher over SF. This will be the second straight road game for the 49ers after having played in a dome the week before. The 49ers' defense was on the field for a league-high 84 plays, well above the average. San Francisco is learning a new defense going up against a duel-threat QB. Tough. The Eagles are 8-4 ATS as 3.5 to 9.5 underdogs over the past three seasons. The 49ers are 1-4 ATS vs. the NFC East of late. Lastly, the 49ers have two home games on deck against Green Bay and Seattle respectively. Take the home dog and try a slice on the money line too!

5*Carolina Panthers +3.5

The Saints are coming off a big upset victory against the Green Bay Packers. It was basically a BYE week as the Packers looked disengaged. Green Bay went 1-for-10 converting 3rd downs. This will be a completely different experience for the road team. It has been a crazy week around the Saints, dealing with coaches and one player in Covid-19 protocol. The Saints haven't had a "normal week" of practice since before Hurricane Ida. They are in Texas right now ahead of this game. The Saints will be without their starting Center (E. Mcoy) and backup Center. Tough. Carolina had 6 QB sacks against the Jets. This defense is very fast. Also Out for this game, Marshon Lattimore (CB) and Marcus Davenport (DE) with six more defenders listed questionable. The Saints swept the season series against the Panthers last season. Carolina did cover a 7-point road spread. Matt Rhule and company are taking this game very seriously. Take the generous 3.5 points and the money line (+160) as well!

5*Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5

I think the Las Vegas Raiders are still celebrating that big comeback win on MNF. Very emotional game for the silver and black. I think this Raiders' defense will have their hands full against a pissed off team, full of skill players on the outside. It's a short week for the road team playing at 1:00 PM (10:00 AM Body Clock) against arguably the No. 1 front seven in football. The Raiders are 1-7 ATS after playing on Monday night. According to Marc Lawrence's Playbook, head coach John Gruden is 15-25 ATS in his career off a SU underdog win. Take the hungry host!

5*Fresno State +11

The Bulldogs have a big athletic offensive line and their defense can matchup with good teams in the PAC 12. Fresno State (+19.5) played Oregon down to the wire after the first quarter. The Bulldogs out-gained the Ducks 373-358 in a 7-point road loss. Jake Haener is completing 72.5% of his passes with a QBR of 72.5 for Fresno State. Dorian Thompson-Robinson is completing 52.8% of his throws with a QBR of 66.6 this season. UCLA has their PAC-12 opener at Stanford next week and is coming off a BYE week. Undefeated teams are usually rusty when their BYE week occurs in September. Take the road dog in this spot!

5*Memphis +3.5

This will be Mississippi State's first road game of the season, trying to stop the No. 1 offense in the nation. This seems like a flat spot to me. The Bulldogs play LSU at home next week. The Tigers should have the special teams advantage. The Bulldogs punter (T. Day) is averaging 38.5 yards per punt, which ranks in the bottom third. Memphis has a history of upsetting SEC foes at home. More of the same in this one! 

5*Detroit Lions +7.5

The Detroit Lions have a very good offensive line. They will be able to put some points on the board against a team that's learning a new defense. The 49ers also have a new offensive coordinator. I think Garoppolo and Lance splitting reps doesn't help either. This line is super inflated. Home teams getting 7+ points in week one has been very profitable. Take the home dog!

5*Pittsburgh Steelers +6.5

Wow! The Bills' hype is off the charts right now. They will be good, but lets slow down on all the Josh Allen MVP talk. Mike Tomlin is a master motivator, especially as road underdogs. Pittsburgh is 11-3 ATS in their past 14 games as road underdogs. They are 5-1 ATS as 3.5 to 7.5-point dogs. The Bills defeated the Steelers 26-15 as 2-point home chalk in week 14. That victory cost the Steelers a No. 2 seed last season. The Steelers have been waiting for this game. Love their defense. Take the generous 6.5 points!

5*Arkansas +7

Texas was very impressive in their home opener beating a really solid UL Lafayette team. Arkansas started very slow before imposing their will in the second half against Rice. The Razorbacks were looking ahead to this game. Texas is coming off an emotional win in Steve Sarkisian's debut. This is one of the biggest home games in recent memory for the Razorbacks. Arkansas is 13-4 ATS vs. the Big 12 since 1993. Line seems 1.5 points too high, so lets take the home dog in this one!

4*Texas San Antonio +5.5

Illinois is coming off a big upset win despite getting out-gained 392-326 last week. Texas State went 7-5 SU under first-year head coach Jeff Traylor, scoring 28.2 points per game (67th of 128) while allowing 25.7 (41 of 128). The Roadrunners are one of the most deepest teams with a plethora of returning talent. Illinois is 3-13 ATS as home chalk of 3.5 to 7 points since 1993. Take the road dog!

4*West Virginia -3

Both teams are ranked in the top 20 in returning production. Maryland played just five games last season going 2-3. They need time to evolve. The Terrapins are running a new offense and defensive with two brand new coordinators installing new systems. I will look to back Maryland later in the season. West Virginia is ready to roll in this game. Take the road team!  

3*Atlanta Braves +1.5 / -123 / (Fried/Scherzer)

The LA Dodgers are ranked No. 25 in batting average (.235) against left-handed starters this season. Max Fried has pitched great against the blue crew going 2-1 with an ERA around 2.00. Atlanta has performed better than most teams against the future Hall of Fame pitcher. Max allowed 4 ER in 6 IP earlier this season and 6 ER in 5.1 IP in 2020. The Braves No. 3 and No. 4 batters went a combined 0-for-8 in yesterday's 3-2 loss. The Dodgers have a ginormous series with the Giants on deck. I like the Braves on the run line!

4*Seattle Seahawks +5

The Broncos know who they want to start at QB in the regular season. They just haven't announced it publicly yet. I don't think their backup QB will play a lot. Might be a trade coming. The third string QB will see plenty of time in the 2nd half. Seattle will be playing its first game that will allow full capacity of fans since the pandemic. Big time home field edge, even in the preseason. The Broncos scored 33 points indoors and now travel once again to a hostile environment. If you play 0-1 teams against 1-0 teams in the preseason, you're cashing around 60% over the past decade. Pete Carroll will be looking for a better defensive effort after allowing the Raiders to rush for 158 yards. This is a FG game either way so I'm taking the points! 

4*Jacksonville Jaguars +3

The Jaguars have a more experienced QB rotation which will be a key factor in the 2nd half. Jacksonville plays one home game this preseason and you can be sure the new brain-trust wants to put out a solid effort. Word out of Jacksonville is that the camp has been very competitive. I don't think the Browns have any interest traveling to Florida for this meaningless game. First-year head coaches (Urban Meyer) are 21-6 ATS in their first home game over the past four preseasons.

3*Atlanta Braves +1.5 (-130) (Woodruff/Muller)

The Brewers have scored well-above their season average in four straight games. Kyle Muller has never pitched against the Brewers. He looks to be the real deal. Milwaukee is batting .235 against left-handed starters this season. The Braves should keep this one close at a decent price.

5*Milwaukee Bucks -4

The Bucks return home after allowing 118 points in both games at Phoenix. The Bucks are 3-0 SU in game 3's this postseason. Role players perform better at home and I would expect the Bucks to play much better defense after reviewing the tape. The Bucks are 10-5 SU when playing with two days of rest while the Suns are 5-3 SU. Milwaukee has more experience playing with two days off. The Bucks are 33-11 SU at home. Take the hungry host!

5*Phoenix Suns -5.5

The Clippers look exhausted to me. Paul George and Reggie Jackson are playing heavy minutes. I think not having Kawhi Leonard will really hurt the Clippers in this game. Also, this will be their 14th game in 26 days. Tough. Devin Booker, Chris Paul, and Jae Crowder shot a combined 1-for-14 from beyond the arc. Look for a much better shooting performance in a convincing victory at home. Suns advance! 

5*LA Clippers +5.5

The Suns shot over 55% from the field in game one and won by just six points. The Clippers should make the necessary adjustments after seeing how the Suns played without Chris Paul. He's OUT again and the Clippers should keep this game close. I would not be surprised if the Clippers won outright.

5*Denver Nuggets +3

The Suns have won six straight playoff games, including all three against Denver. Phoenix came out with a lot of energy after watching the Nuggets' big man receive his MVP trophy. Visiting teams have struggled when playing the second of back-to-back games at Pepsi Center. I think the Nuggets win outright with a much more aggressive game plan!