3*Creighton +7

Creighton has already proven they can compete with St. John's, defeating them earlier this season. While St. John's boasts the nation's top defense (KenPom), Creighton's offensive efficiency (ranked 35th nationally) and elite inside scoring (over 60% on two-point attempts, the best in Division I) make them a tough matchup. In their last meeting at Madison Square Garden, St. John's defeated Creighton 79-73 in a tightly contested game. Creighton even held a five-point lead during the second half. The Blue Jays played a much tougher non-conference schedule (No. 46 vs. No. 174) this season. Grab the points.

3*Texas +2.5

Texas is currently led by freshman guard Tre Johnson, who ranks 15th nationally with an average of 20.2 points per game. He has scored at least 23 points in five of his last seven games. The Longhorns have made four straight NCAA Tournament appearances and must stack up some wins. Texas has a significant height advantage (No. 64 vs. No. 300) and will seek revenge for an earlier loss. Grab the points.

3*Phoenix Suns +3

The LA Clippers are coming off two consecutive games against their cross-town rivals, the LA Lakers. In their recent home loss to Minnesota, the Phoenix Suns only scored 98 points while committing 22 turnovers. This season, the Suns have a perfect record of 3-0 against the Clippers. Norman Powell scored 63 points in those three matchups with a plus/minus of +24. However, he has been ruled out for this game. I like the home dog in this spot, with or without Bradley Beal. My model has this game at a zero-point spread.

10*Kansas +10.5

In a January matchup, Kansas had a six-point lead in overtime and maintained a six-point advantage in double overtime with 20 seconds remaining. After a series of fluky plays, including a missed free throw by the Jayhawks and a poor inbounds pass, Houston secured a 92-86 victory. The Jayhawks have played the much tougher non-conference (No. 31 vs. No. 103) and overall schedules (No. 13 vs. No. 28). Kansas also has a height advantage (No. 77 vs. No. 235). Kansas shot only 22% from three-point range in their loss at home to Texas Tech. Positive regression is expected. The Jayhawks believe they can defeat this team, so I love taking the points in this spot.

4*Kentucky +5

Auburn is coming off a dominant 106-76 victory vs. Oklahoma. After playing three straight home games, the Tigers will hit the road for the first time in two weeks. Kentucky's home-court advantage at Rupp Arena is significant; the Wildcats have a 14-2 home record this season, losing only to Tennessee and Alabama. The Wildcats are now fully healthy and have the size that can match up with Auburn's skillful bunch. By assigning Amari Williams to guard Johni Broome and Andrew Carr to defend the less offensively threatening Dylan Cardwell, Kentucky should be able to limit Auburn's interior scoring. I like the home dog.

4*Penn State +3.5

The Penn State Nittany Lions have lost their last seven true road games. They aim to avenge a 69-61 loss to Minnesota earlier this month after blowing a 10-point lead in the first half. They were without 7-foot center Yanic Konan Niederhauser. He has returned for the last two games, and their defense looks much better. Penn State is coming off a convincing 89-72 win against Nebraska, which snapped a seven-game losing streak. The Nittany Lions average 79.8 points per game, with five players scoring double figures. The Golden Gophers have a 2-8 record against the spread as a home favorite. This line is too high for a Penn State team that can win outright.

3*Houston Rockets -3

The Minnesota Timberwolves defeated the Houston Rockets 127-114 at home on February 6th. At the end of the third quarter, the Rockets were leading 98-92 but outscored 35-16 in the fourth quarter. The Rockets are healthier now and should be motivated after entering the All-Star break with a 3-7 straight-up and a 2-8 against-the-spread records of late. According to my model, the Rockets are favored to win by 4 points.

4*Alabama -1.5

Alabama has won eight straight games and matches up well against Auburn. The Crimson Tide has the size and experience to beat a team of Auburn's caliber. The Coleman Coliseum is a challenging venue for visiting teams, with a seating capacity of 15,316 fans, ranking as the 22nd largest in Division I basketball. Alabama is 26-3 at home over the last two seasons. This will be the Tigers' fifth game in 14 days, while Alabama has played one fewer game during that span. That is a huge factor this time of year. Alabama defeated the then-ranked 4th-seeded Tigers 79-75 at home last year, and this year's team is even stronger.

5*Golden State Warriors +6.5

Both teams are playing on the second night of a back-to-back. Houston is dealing with significant injuries to key players. Fred VanVleet and Jabari Smith Jr. are both out for this game, while Alperen Sengun is questionable with a back injury. The Warriors are a veteran team and want to end the “first half” on a high note. Golden State is 2-1 since trading for Jimmy Butler. My model has Houston favored by four points. I really like the road dog in this spot.

3*Kansas City Chiefs -1

The 49ers and Eagles had stronger rosters than the Chiefs during their last two Super Bowl victories. However, Andy Reid and his coaching staff possess strategic expertise that gives the Chiefs an advantage over the Eagles. Philadelphia faced only four teams ranked in the top 12 for defensive DVOA, and they have two rookie cornerbacks who will be tested in this matchup. This should be a highly competitive, one-score game. The Chiefs will have a quarterback and head coach entering the Hall of Fame five years after retirement. I picked Kansas City to win the Super Bowl in August and still believe in the Chiefs.

4*Oklahoma U +5.5

This will be the Volunteers' first road game in two weeks. They have a record of 1-3 in their last four road tilts. Oklahoma returns home after suffering a 28-point loss at Auburn and should be fired up. The Sooners have been strong at home this season, losing just once at the Lloyd Noble Center. Oklahoma has an explosive offense that ranks 15th in adjusted efficiency. Tennessee has an elite defense; however, they have allowed 78+ points in two of their last three games. The Vols have a colossal revenge game against the Kentucky Wildcats on Tuesday. Oklahoma averages 84 points at home, while Tennessee averages 67 points on the road. I like the home dog in this spot!

3*Denver Nuggets +3 (-105)

The Denver Nuggets are looking for revenge after losing 145-118 at home on Thanksgiving in a nationally televised game. The New York Knicks have scored 143 points in each of their last two games and have a high-profile matchup against the LA Lakers on deck. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have lost two consecutive games but are undefeated in their previous four games after such defeats this season. Denver has faced the sixth most demanding schedule, while New York ranks twenty-sixth. I like the road dog.

3*Kansas -1

I have been looking forward to this spot all season. Houston dominated Kansas 76-46 in the last game of the 2023-24 regular season. I love backing winning teams that previously lost by 30 or more points. I believe that Houston's statistics are somewhat inflated. The Jayhawks have played the much tougher non-conference (No. 27 vs. No. 100) and overall schedules (No. 7 vs. No. 49). Kansas has a height advantage (No. 84 vs. No. 223) and Division 1 experience (No. 1 vs. No. 51) according to KenPom. Look at who the Cougars have played in true road games: Oklahoma State, Kansas State, and UCF.  They are coming off a 70-36 victory vs. Utah, where they had 19 steals and 11 blocks.

3*Houston Rockets +3

The Rockets boast one of the NBA's top defenses this season, ranking 4th in points allowed at 107.8 per game and 5th in field goal defense at 45.1%. This elite defensive unit, anchored by Alperen Sengun's rebounding prowess (10.5 per game) and complemented by strong perimeter defense, matches up well against Cleveland's offense. He also chips in 19.2 points per game on a 48.9 FG percentage. Cleveland will be without star forward Evan Mobley, who is OUT with a calf injury. This is a tough travel spot for the Cavs, having played three road games than one home game and now hitting the road again to a different time zone. Houston ranks 6th in strength of schedule, while Cleveland is ranked 20th. Grab the points.

3*Alabama +2.5

Alabama has one of the most potent offenses in college basketball, averaging 91.1 points per game. The Crimson Tide also excels in rebounding, ranking as the second-best rebounding team in the nation with an average of 45.4 rebounds per game, compared to Kentucky's average of 40.9 rebounds per game. This advantage on the glass could lead to extra possessions and second-chance points, helping Alabama stay competitive throughout the game. While Kentucky has a potent offense, their defense has been a weakness this season. The Wildcats rank just 75th in defensive efficiency. Alabama is 3-0 after a loss this season. Kentucky is coming off two big conference wins. I like the road dog.

4*Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3

The Commanders played the easiest schedule (30th) of all the playoff teams. They went 2-3 in outdoor road games. Washington is ranked 30th in run defense, while the Buccaneers are ranked 4th in run offense. The Bucs rank 4th in red zone offense, while Washington is 22nd in red zone defense. Tampa Bay owns the No. 1 third-down offense, while Washington is ranked 15th in third-down defense. The Commanders' defense was on the field for 75 plays and 37.03 possession time against Dallas. Washington has a negative sack differential (-0.4), and these teams struggle in the Wild Card round. The Buccaneers have established a playoff pedigree, making the divisional round last year, while the Commanders are brand new in post-season play.

5*Ohio State -2.5

The Ohio State Buckeyes played a much more demanding non-conference schedule (No. 5 vs. No. 32) while owning better net yards per play (+2.7 vs. +1.9) overall. Ohio State’s point differential is +24.6, while Oregon is +18.8. The Ducks outgained four of six fellow Bowl teams with an average yards per game of +82. Ohio State outgained six of seven Bowl teams for an average yards per game of +145. Oregon outgained the Buckeyes in that one-point home victory. After that game, Ohio State changed its defensive scheme, which has dramatically helped. I like Ohio State in this revenge spot!

3*Iowa +3

Last season, Missouri defeated Ohio State 14-3 in the Cotton Bowl, which we had as an easy winner. Remember how many players were out for the Buckeyes, including their quarterback Kyle McCord and first-round pick wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.? I don’t think this Missouri team is as talented, and it’s a little bit of a letdown spot playing against Iowa. The Hawkeyes lost 35-0 in last year’s Citrus Bowl, so you know they are highly motivated in this one. Both teams have key opt-outs which are accounted for in the line. A strong system for years in Bowl games is to “play on” teams as underdogs if they lost their previous Bowl game by 30 or more. Grab the points.

4*USC +4

The Trojans began their season with a victory over LSU at Allegiant Stadium, the same venue as the Las Vegas Bowl. This familiarity with the environment may give them a slight advantage in comfort and preparation. In contrast, Texas A&M suffered losses in three of their last four games, including their final three conference matchups. They lost three starting defenseman lineman to the transfer portal, which was the strength of their defense. In last year's Holiday Bowl, USC overcame opt-outs and showed up ready to play, bringing the fight to Louisville. This experience suggests that Lincoln Riley and his staff know how to motivate and prepare the team for postseason play. USC also lost some key players, but they have a deep roster. Dog call.

4*New York Jets +3

The LA Rams are overrated, ranking 21st in net yards per play, while the Jets are ranked 7th. The Rams have a net yards per play of -0.53 in road games, while the Jets are +0.76 at home. The Jets' secondary is healthy, with D.J. Reed a full participant at practice. The Jets are significantly better in key defensive metrics for passing and running. The Rams are a dome team playing outdoors in freezing weather. Last season, Matthew Stafford had a record of 1-1 straight up and 0-2 against the spread in two games played when the temperatures were below 40 degrees. His win was a 1-point victory in East Rutherford against the Giants as 4-point chalk. Aaron Rodgers has consistently excelled in freezing conditions. 

4*Tennessee +7.5

This line seems high to me. Tennessee has a +83-yard differential against fellow bowl teams, while Ohio State is +18. The Volunteers own a +6 point differential against fellow bowl teams, while the Buckeye are +5. Tennessee also has better yards per point on both sides of the ball against bowl teams this season. Don’t forget, The Vols and Penn State are the only teams to hold five opponents to season-low yardage. Tennessee is ranked higher in down-by-down consistency, ranking 28th compared to 36th for the Buckeyes. Both teams have solid kickers. However, Tennessee is ranked 43rd in net punt yards, while Ohio State is ranked 94th. The Vols went 7-5 ATS this season, including 4-0 when playing on Field Turf. Grab the points.

3*Memphis -3

No team has lost more players to the transfer portal than the Mountaineers after firing head coach Neal Brown. The Tigers' high-powered offense, 35.2 points per game, should exploit West Virginia's vulnerable defense that allows 31.1 points. Memphis Senior QB Seth Henigan (Texas native) and running back Mario Anderson form a potent offensive duo that will challenge the Mountaineers' 106th-ranked defense. Memphis is riding a wave of momentum, starkly contrasting West Virginia's interim head coaching issues. The Tigers are highly motivated, aiming to defeat a Power-5 team, and their bowl game success (3-0 run) further strengthens their chances to win. The players have a strong affection for head coach Ryan Silverfield, who stands to earn a $50,000 bonus with a victory.

3*Denver Broncos -3.5

The Denver Broncos are ranked second in net yards per play defense, eighth in yards per game defense, fourth in net yards per pass defense, second in red zone defense, sixth in run defense, and eighth in opponent passer rating. The Colts are ranked 23rd in net yards per play defense, 29th in yards per game defense, 27th in net yards per pass defense, 17th in red zone defense, 30th in run defense, and 23rd in opponent passer rating. Sean Payton wasn’t happy with the Broncos’ defensive effort, allowing 32 points at home before their BYE week. Another data point I like is a Dome Team playing outdoors in December. My betting model has the Broncos favored by 9 points.

3*Carolina Panthers -2

Bryce Young has significantly improved in recent weeks. Since Week 9, Young's Total QBR of 60.0 ranks 13th in the NFL, surpassing even established stars like Patrick Mahomes. The Cowboys are coming off a demoralizing loss to the Bengals and will be playing in a short week without their starting center and stud linebacker. Cooper Rush is not a good quarterback, as evidenced by his QBR of 30.4. The Panthers rank 9th in opponent punt return yards, while Dallas ranks 28th. Look for Chuba Hubbard to run all over this Cowboys' defense, which ranks 25th in run defense. Carolina lost to Dallas 33-10 at home last season. This is the Panthers' Super Bowl, returning to their home stadium after three consecutive losses.

3*New York Giants +5

This is a massive number. We have the Saints favored outdoors in December. The Saints have struggled significantly in their last six games without Taysom Hill, losing 5 out of 6. They've averaged only 15.3 points per game during this stretch, showcasing a stark contrast to their performance with him on the field. With Hill active, the Saints averaged 26.6 points per game across 94 matchups. Without him, that number drops to 17.6 points per game. The Giants are without Dexter Lawrence but can still get pressure from the edge. I like Drew Lock's mobility over Tommy DeVito, so give me the home dog.

3*UNLV +5

Boise State's tackling performance in 2024 has been a significant area of concern. The Broncos rank 130th in PFF's Tackling grades, which places them near the bottom of all FBS teams. This poor tackling performance is further emphasized by their ranking of 196th out of all FBS and FCS defenses in broken and missed tackles allowed. UNLV has recorded 82 tackles for loss on 376 attempts, which ranks as the 3rd best among Non-Power Conference teams. Tackling in extreme cold weather is complex, and the Runnin' Rebels have a big-time edge. They are playing with double revenge after losing earlier this season and in last year's MWC championship game. UNLV has a massive special teams advantage as well.

3*Tennessee Titans +5.5

This will be the Commanders’ 13th straight game without two weeks of rest. The Titans are ranked third in net yards per play defense, second in yards per game defense, second in third-down defense, third in net yards per pass defense, and eighth in run defense while playing the sixth toughest schedule. Washington has played the 25th toughest schedule, and they are 1-7-1 SU and 2-7 ATS in Pre-Bye week games against the AFC. My betting model makes Washington a favorite of 3.5 points, so I have to take the +5.5 spread.

3*Kansas State +2.5

Kansas State has played a slightly tougher schedule (No. 23 vs. No. 32) and has better net yards per play (+0.9 vs. +0.6). The Wildcats have the better sack differential (+1.6 vs. -0.3) and have outgained 10 of 11 foes this season. Kansas State is ranked 15th in rushing yards per game (202.7), while Iowa State is ranked 100th in rushing yards allowed (176.6). Last year, the Cyclones defeated Kansas State 42-35 as 9.5-point road dogs, despite a 32-10 First down margin and 42:12 to 17:48 time of possession deficit. The underdog is 8-2 SU and 8-2 ATS in the last ten meetings. This will be the season's first game in which the Wildcats are underdogs as they look to play spoiler. Take the points!

3*Arizona Cardinals PK

The Arizona Cardinals went 0-6 against division rivals last season. We like betting on these teams in division matchups the following season. Seattle defeated the Cardinals as 3-point road favorites despite being out-gained 466-327 on January 7. Arizona lost by one possession against Mike Macdonald's defense last season. I like that they faced his scheme with much better personnel on the Ravens. Arizona has won three of their previous four games following its BYE week. The Cardinals have played a tougher schedule, ranking No. 2, while Seattle ranks No. 16. Additionally, they rank 12 spots higher in special teams and have a more favorable sack differential (+0.9 vs. -0.9). According to my betting model, Arizona should be favored by 2.5 points.

3*Indianapolis Colts +7.5 (-118)

Both teams have played similar strength of schedules so far this season. This is the absolute top of the market for the Detroit Lions after scoring 50+ points in two of their past four games. My betting Model makes the Lions a favorite of 8.4 points. However, it would help if you took that with a grain of salt, as the Colts have been ravaged by injuries to their front seven and, of course, the QB shuffle. Shane Steichen has a brilliant mind, and I will trust him to keep this one close as they try to save their season. It’s worth noting that the Lions have struggled relatively (one possession wins) against QBs (Stroud & Murray), who average at least 5.0 yards per rush.

3*Kansas +3

The Kansas Jayhawks have strong cornerbacks, Cobee Bryant and Mello Dotson, to defend against the pass, which Colorado relies on heavily. Colorado has faced a weaker schedule, ranked No. 41 compared to No. 24, and has yet to secure a victory against a ranked team. Kansas is ranked 19th in both EPA per play and offensive success rate, averaging over 400 yards in four of their last five games. The Buffaloes' offensive metrics are closer to average than elite (42nd EPA per play & 44th in success rate). They've surpassed 400 yards just twice in their last five games. Colorado ranks 23rd in luck rankings, while Kansas is 132nd. The Jayhawks need victories to become bowl-eligible. Strong system on the home dog!

3*Indiana U +13.5

The Indiana Hoosiers have two weeks to prepare for this revenge game. The Buckeyes' starting Center went down in practice and is out. They are also dealing with other critical injuries up and down the roster. Indiana will be super motivated, considering Ohio State is 10-0 SU against the Hoosiers in their last ten meetings. Ironically, Indiana enters this matchup at 10-0. Take the points!

4*LA Chargers -1

The LA Chargers have several advantages in important defensive metrics, including net yards per play, total yards allowed per game, red zone defense, third-down efficiency, run defense, and net yards per pass attempt. Additionally, LA boasts stronger special teams and ranks six spots higher in DVOA, which accounts for strength of schedule. There is another essential factor for this game. The Ravens played the Bengals on November 7th, and I believe the Harbaugh brothers share insights about common opponents when they speak on the phone. According to my betting model (not power rankings), the Chargers should be favored by 3.9 points, assuming Tee Higgins & Orlando Brown Jr. are back for the Bengals. I like the home team quite a bit!

3*South Alabama +7.5

South Alabama is a talented 4-5 team with two weeks of preparation time, looking to avenge last year's loss despite out-gaining Louisiana 498 to 348 yards. The Jaguars are motivated to win all their remaining games and aim for a bowl appearance. On the other hand, the Ragin Cajuns only have a little to play for, especially with a significant revenge game against Troy coming up. It's worth noting that the underdog has performed well, going 6-1 against the spread in the last seven meetings. In their three most recent encounters, South Alabama has been outscored by only 12 points combined. QB Gio Lopez is good to go. I like the road underdog in this matchup!

4*Pittsburgh Steelers +3

This will be the Commanders' 10th consecutive game while the Steelers are coming off their BYE week. Pittsburgh boasts a record of 15-5 straight up and has won seven games in a row when given two weeks to prepare of late. The Steelers rank first in red-zone defense, fourth in run defense, and fifth in opponent passer rating. Washington ranks 28th in red-zone defense, 28th in run defense, and 28th in opponent passer rating. Washington has played the 25th most manageable schedule, while Pittsburgh is ranked 26th. The Commanders have not committed a turnover in four straight games. These teams are major fade bait as chalk. According to my model, Washington should be favored by less than one point.

4*Indianapolis Colts +4

The Indianapolis Colts' offense and defensive metrics are somewhat disappointing due to their injuries. The defense is healthy as it has been this season, and they desperately need a win. Center Ryan Kelly is OUT, but Bernhard Raimann is a highly rated-backup. This could be a sleepy spot for the Buffalo Bills coming off that win over the Dolphins with five seconds on the clock, and they play the Kansas City Chiefs next week. Buffalo is 7-2 SU and hasn't defeated any team with a winning record. Indianapolis plays a zone defense, which is more effective than man coverage against Josh Allen. The Colts did not enter the red zone once during last week's loss in Minnesota. All nine Colts’ games decided by one possession. 

3*Utah U +4

The Utah Utes are currently ranked 11th in the nation on defense, allowing only 16.5 points per game. As an undefeated team facing a .500 opponent, BYU may enter the matchup feeling overconfident, which could enable Utah to keep the score closer than expected. Playing at home in the Holy War in what should be a low-scoring game significantly enhances Utah's ability to cover four points, as they need wins to become bowl-eligible.

3*Green Bay Packers +3.5

I like the value of the home dog, as everyone will be on the Detroit Lions in this spot. Jordan Love is expected to play, so this line is heading to a flat 3 points. I think this is a game where the Lions will miss Edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson. Jared Goff outdoors is much different than Goff indoors. I made this line Detroit minus two. Take the points.

3*Denver Broncos +9.5

This is a massive number, as my model makes the Ravens just a 6-point home favorite. Denver is 8-2 in their last ten road games dating back to last season, which means Baltimore’s home-field edge is somewhat negated. Denver is ranked sixth in opponent passer rating, first in net yards per pass play defense, first in yards per play defense, and third in red-zone defense. Baltimore is ranked 29th in opponent passer rating, 28th in net yards per pass play defense, 25th in yards per play defense, and 19th in red-zone defense. The Ravens are in the middle of a division sandwich with the Bengals on deck next Thursday. Denver has the better special teams as well. (No. 4 vs. No. 25). Take the points.

3*South Carolina +2.5

The Gamecocks have two weeks to prepare for this revenge game, while Texas A&M is coming off their biggest win of the season. However, that victory over LSU was somewhat misleading, as the Aggies were outgained in total yards, 429 to 376. They had a favorable plus-two turnover margin and benefited from three missed field goals by LSU. The Aggies have been outgained in three of their last four games, which raises concerns. South Carolina is just two plays away from having a record of 6-1, as they easily could have defeated both LSU and Alabama. The Gamecocks have played the slightly tougher schedule (No. 3 vs. No. 7). I like the home dog in this spot.

10*Indianapolis Colts +6

Rematch from week one. The Colts are getting six points and will have RB Jonathan Taylor and DT DeForest Buckner back. Love it. The Colts have not won or lost by more than six points in their seven games this season. Last season, they defeated Houston by eleven points and lost by four points. Nico Collins, who won't be playing, has been a problem for the Colts, with 117 receiving yards in week one, 195 receiving yards on January 6th, and 149 receiving yards on September 17th, 2023. The Colts can focus on stopping the Texans' run game, and they have allowed the fourth-fewest sacks, while Houston ranks 24th. These teams have the same point differential (+0.9), and Houston has played a slightly tougher schedule. 

4*Wisconsin +6.5

Penn State has played a slightly tougher schedule (No. 27 vs. No. 35). Under James Franklin, Penn State is 3-6 straight-up following BYE weeks and 1-3 SU in Big Ten road games. His 41.7% against the spread rate is primary fade bait. In 2018, Michigan State defeated Penn State, and in 2019, Minnesota also secured a victory against them. In 2021, Illinois triumphed over Penn State after a historic nine overtimes. Expect a tough defensive battle between two physical Big Ten teams. Wisconsin’s strong run game and home-field advantage will keep it competitive. They also have much better special teams. After six straight wins to start the season, the Nittany Lions may not have wanted a week off. Penn State faces Ohio State next week.

4*North Carolina +5.5

This line seems inflated, but these two teams are very evenly matched. Virginia is ranked 56th in strength of schedule, while North Carolina is ranked 67th. The Tar Heels own a -0.6 net yards per play, while Virginia averages -0.4 net yards per play this season. Last season, the Cavaliers defeated North Carolina 31-27 as 24-point underdogs despite getting out-gained 490-436. The Tar Heels have two weeks to prepare and should be super focused on snapping their four-game losing streak. Virginia has been excellent against the spread this season but has only been favored by more than five points once. I like the road dog!

3*Minnesota Vikings -1 (-125)

The Minnesota Vikings are 2-0 after their bye week with Kevin O’Connell as head coach. Detroit is coming off a big emotional revenge win against the Dallas Cowboys after the refs botched a two-point conversion last season. Minnesota is ranked second in run defense and first in opponent passer rating, which is a good combination against this Lions team. Detroit won both games against Minnesota last year, so the Vikings should be entirely focused with two weeks to prepare.

3*Nebraska +6.5 (-105)

Both teams are well-rested, coming off a bye week, and have faced similar strength of schedules (Nebraska No. 73 vs. Indiana No. 71). This game is a classic matchup between offense and defense. Indiana's high-powered offense will face a tough challenge against Nebraska's strong defense (13.0 points per game). The BYE week is more challenging for a high-powered offense that produces points every week. The Cornhuskers have the defensive talent to slow down Indiana's attack. An early start time helps the underdog stay within the number.

3*Green Bay Packers -5

Arizona's defense ranks near the bottom of the league in several key metrics. They are 26th in EPA per play allowed, 29th in net yards per pass allowed, 23rd in opponent passer ranking, and 30th in third-down defense. Green Bay's offense is getting healthier with the return of receiver Romeo Doubs from suspension. The Packers are ranked 13th in third-down defense, seventh in opponent passer ranking, and they rank 10 spots higher in DVOA. The Cardinals are coming off an emotional division victory in a game that was closer than it appears. Arizona benefited from a minus -2 turnover differential and was out-gained 384-358. They only committed one penalty for five yards, which is likely to regress to the mean. Kyler Murray has never played at Lambeau Field and will find the grass field not to his liking. 

3*Oregon +3.5

When the schedule was released, I always wanted to play Oregon. This game is significant as it will be Ohio State's first visit to Autzen Stadium since 1967 and only the fourth meeting between these two programs this century. The Ducks have recorded seven sacks in their first two Big Ten games, while Ohio State's offensive line has shown some vulnerabilities. The Ducks have the 19th-ranked passing offense in the country, featuring skilled receivers Tez Johnson and Evan Stewart, presenting a formidable test for Ohio State's defensive backs. Will Howard is an experienced quarterback who has thrown one interception in three straight games against weaker pass defenses. Oregon is 34-1 straight up in their last 35 home games. Take the points!

3*Toledo -6

The Toledo Rockets have been averaging 35 points per game this season, while Miami (OH) has struggled offensively, only managing to average 12 points per game in their first four contests. Toledo allows 4.8 yards per play, while the Red Hawks allow 5.8 yards per play. With two weeks to prepare, Toledo will enter the game seeking revenge for last year's loss. We note that Toledo outgained Miami, OH, 370-306. With home-field advantage, I make Toledo close to an eight-point favorite.

3*Virginia -1

Last week, Boston College had an emotional 21-20 come-from-behind win over Western Kentucky, scoring two touchdowns in the final quarter. Despite being out-gained in each of their previous three games (1,163-869), they managed to win their last two. Boston College has a -0.3 net yards per play, while Virginia has a +0.1 this season. Virginia, who has had two weeks to prepare, will be playing with revenge from last year’s 27-24 setback after botching a 14-point lead. This will be the Eagles’ sixth game in 33 days. Tough. I like the Cavaliers in this spot.

3*Baltimore Ravens -1.5

The Baltimore Ravens have faced a much tougher schedule (No. 6 versus No. 24) and will aim to get their season back on track. John Harbaugh has thrived in prime-time home games against undefeated teams. Buffalo has one less day to prepare after winning easily on MNF. Buffalo has allowed the seventh-most rush yards per play (4.7), while the Ravens have allowed the fewest (2.8). Buffalo is vulnerable in the middle of their defense, and the Ravens can exploit this weakness. The Bills have scored 112 points in their last three games and now play a road game. Strong system on Baltimore. Lamar Jackson is 23-7 against the spread as an underdog or a favorite of three points or less. 

2*Atlanta Falcons -2

The Falcons had this matchup circled since the Saints defeated them 48-17 in the last game of the 2023 season. The Saints extended their lead by scoring a late touchdown instead of running out the clock. Although a new coaching staff exists, many returning players are still on the team. Two key offensive linemen for the Saints, center Erik McCoy, and guard Cesar Ruiz sustained injuries in the Saints' narrow loss to the Eagles last Sunday. The final score is misleading, as Philadelphia outgained New Orleans by 241 yards. Linebacker Demario Davis (seven straight seasons with 100+ tackles) did not practice on Wednesday and Thursday. The Falcons are ranked second in strength of schedule, while New Orleans is ranked 27th.

3*Alabama +2.5

It's possible that the Georgia Bulldogs were looking ahead to this game after narrowly defeating Kentucky last week. Kalen DeBoer and his team should be fired up to snap Georgia's 42-game regular-season winning streak. The Crimson Tide has a much superior third-down offense and third-down defense. The Bulldogs have a -38.5 against-the-spread margin in their last two road games. DeBoer has gone 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS as an underdog in his career. Hard to ignore. I have this game power-rated with Alabama at -1.7, so getting 2.5 points seems like the sharp side.

5*Denver Broncos +6.5

Tampa Bay returns home after their emotional win against the team that eliminated them from the playoffs last season. The Denver Broncos could have defeated the Steelers had it not been for multiple dropped passes. Tampa Bay is ranked last in sacks and pressure rate. Bo Nix and company can move the ball against a depleted secondary where the back door will be open if needed. Vita Vea has been instrumental in the Buccaneers' run defense, as they are 3-3 straight up and 2-4 against the spread without him under head coach Todd Bowles. The largest margin of victory was six points. It seems like a flat spot for the home team, whose defense was on the field for 83 plays last week.

4*Oklahoma U +7 (+100)

The Oklahoma Sooners have played a more demanding schedule (No. 29 vs. No. 45) and will be getting key players back from injury. Josh Heupel's offense hasn't traveled well. In 2022, they averaged 20 points per game less on the road than at home; last year, they averaged nine points less. The Volunteers are massively over-rated in this spot. Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava is set to make his first career road start after three comfortable home victories, including last week's 71-0 win against Kent State. I made this spread at 4.5, so we are getting great value.

5*James Madison +10.5

These teams have played a soft schedule, with the home team playing the more difficult slate, but not by a considerable margin. The Dukes own a +2.7 net yards per play, while the Tar Heels are +0.2 this season. James Madison is 5-1 straight up and 5-1 against the spread, with two weeks to prepare over the last three seasons. They are pumped up to play a Power Four school, and I love head coach Bob Chesney's motivational skills. North Carolina plans to use both quarterbacks, which may challenge either player to find a rhythm. The Tar Heels kick off their ACC slate against in-state rival Duke next week. I made this line 8.3, so getting 10.5 points screams value.

4*Denver Broncos +3

The Pittsburgh Steelers will be playing their second consecutive road game, which will be at high altitude. The Broncos lost their first two home games last season, so they will be focused on getting a win. It's worth noting that Mike Tomlin has been great as a road underdog but not so much as a road favorite. Justin Fields has one of the lowest winning percentages against the spread among NFL quarterbacks, with more than 20 starts. His overall ATS record is 13-18-1, which equates to a 40% cover rate. The Steelers have cluster injuries on their offensive line. I like the home dog!

5*South Carolina +7

The Gamecocks boast one of the most formidable defensive lines in the SEC, with freshman Dylan Stewart leading the charge. They lead the conference in sacks after two games, which will create a lot of havoc on LSU's quarterback. The Gamecocks have a 2-0 record and are coming off an impressive 31-6 win over Kentucky. The Tigers have looked vulnerable, as they suffered a loss to USC and faced difficulties against FCS Nicholls State. Their pass defense success rate is currently ranked 105th nationally at 66%. After playing their starters for an extended period against Nicholls State, the Tigers are dealing with injuries and feeling the effects of the shortened week. This will be LSU's third game in 13 days.

4*Arizona Cardinals +6

The Arizona Cardinals can be a feisty team this season. Despite their 4-13 straight-up record (9-8 against the spread) last season, they played hard for their coach, Johnathan Gannon. Arizona had twelve draft picks and significantly improved their secondary, defensive line, and wide receiver positions. The Buffalo Bills are currently dealing with numerous injuries and have lost as favorites in two of the last three opening-week seasons. Since 2005, non-playoff teams have performed well against playoff teams in Week 1, with a record of 73-52-1 (58.4%) against the spread (ATS). Grab the six points.

4*Carolina Panthers +4.5

The New Orleans Saints have the 32nd-ranked offensive line, according to PFF. The Carolina Panthers have bolstered their lineup with astute draft selections and crucial off-season acquisitions. They get a boost from a sharper coaching staff and will play with double revenge from last year. Carolina is the much healthier team with a SIC (Sports Injury Central) score of 85.3 compared to 78.3 for the Saints. Dennis Allen's career winning percentage as a head coach (including his time with the Raiders) is .343, which ranks 171st out of 176 head coaches who have worked 59 or more games in NFL history. Dennis Allen has an ATS record of 24-40-2 over his coaching career spanning 66 games. I like the Panthers in this spot.

4*Sam Houston Bearkats +22.5

An important aspect of this game that is being overlooked is that the current defensive coordinator for the Bearkats, Skyler Cassidy, was Gus Malzahn’s defensive coordinator at Auburn. UCF runs the same offense, so Cassidy will be familiar with their scheme. Both teams prefer to run the ball, leading to a slower-paced game. The Knights will face TCU next week for their Big 12 opener. Gus Malzahn has a 1-5 ATS record after the Knights score 50 or more points.

4*Texas A&M Aggies -2.5

If you combine returning production and the transfer portal rankings, Texas A&M is 42nd while Notre Dame ranks 96th. The Fighting Irish have Riley Leonard at quarterback, who transferred from Duke. His last game was October 28th after suffering a season-ending injury. Leonard has a completion percentage of 67.8% in home games compared to 53.3% on the road in three seasons. College Station is a challenging venue, with a home-field advantage of 3.5 points. The Aggies welcome first-year head coach Mike Elko, who coached Leonard during his time with the Blue Devils. Texas A&M's defensive line is ranked as one of the best. The Fighting Irish lost standout tackles Joe Alt and Blake Fisher to the NFL and Charles Jagusah to a season-ending injury.

3*LA Chargers +3

The LA Chargers want to see Max Duggan in the second half. He won the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm award in 2022 with TCU. PJ Walker will play a lot in the second half for Seattle. He has a 54.6% completion percentage and a 19.2 QBR in his career. His 2.6 yards per carry average doesn’t scare me. He has thrown 6 touchdowns with 16 interceptions, and now he has to learn a new offense. The Chargers have a significant edge in the trenches, even with backups. Jim Harbaugh is 10-6 SU and 10-6 ATS in the preseason. He wants to win this preseason game, his first NFL appearance in a decade, to send a message to the NCAA about the unjust suspension.

3*Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 (-138)  | Koenig/Sanchez

The Milwaukee Brewers will use an "opener" in game two, with Colin Rea handling most of the pitching duties. The Brewers' second through fourth batters went a combined 0-for-12 with five strikeouts in yesterday's 3-1 loss. Milwaukee is ranked second in defensive runs saved. I think the visiting team will keep this close if not win outright. Grab the +1.5 on the run line as a safety net.

3*Dallas Mavericks +4.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves had an emotional comeback against the Nuggets at high altitude in game seven. Although Minnesota won 3 out of 4 games against Dallas this season, it's important to note that all four games were played before the trade deadline, after which Dallas significantly improved their roster. Minnesota is ranked 8th in average height, while Dallas is close behind at 13th. I like the Mavericks plus the points in game one!

4*Minnesota Timberwolves -2

The Minnesota Timberwolves are heading home after losing three consecutive games for the first time this season. Denver has shot at least 54% from the field in all three victories. Minnesota will be motivated, as the Nuggets have won both games in Minnesota. Closeout games are challenging on the road. I believe Minnesota will extend this series with a strong performance at Target Center.

3*Denver Nuggets -4

Both teams will be playing their fifth game within ten days. The high altitude of the venue will likely benefit the defending champions, especially since they will only have one day of rest. The Nuggets have improved their efficiency, shooting over 50% from the field in their last two victories. Mike Malone and his team have made the necessary offensive adjustments. Denver should be highly focused, given the outcome of the first two games in their home arena.

3*Indiana Pacers +5

After dropping the first game, the Indiana Pacers bounced back with a vengeance in game two against the Milwaukee Bucks in round one. The New York Knicks played three starters for over 40 minutes on Tuesday, but they need more depth and could be playing with "heavy" legs. The road team has a great chance to win outright, so let's take the points!

3*Philadelphia 76ers -3

The New York Knicks had three players (Brunson, Hart, and Anunoby) log over 50 minutes in game five. Closeout games are extremely difficult on the road, and the 76ers will have the added benefit of feeding off energy from the home crowd. Joel Embiid had just 19 points on 7-for-19 shooting, and Philadelphia was -5.5 in that crucial game three, which they won by 9 points. I think there will be a game seven at MSG on Saturday.

3*Orlando Magic -1.5

This will be the Cavs' first road game in just over two weeks, and they have lost 8 of their past ten games away from home. We all know that role players perform better at home, and the Magic went 29-11 at Kia Center. Their road/home splits are very telling, as they rank fifth in point differential at home (+7.8) compared to -3.8 in away games. The sold-out crowd of 18,846 will be fired up for Orlando's first home playoff game since 2019. Play the Magic in this must win game!

3*New York Knicks +3

The New York Knicks have a record of 5-3 after losing two or more games in a row. They have managed to defeat the Miami Heat in their two meetings, even though they were eliminated by the Heat in the playoffs last year. The line for this game seems high, especially considering that the Knicks have a point differential of +4.7, while the Heat's point differential is +1.4 this season. Furthermore, the Heat will play with a roster suffering from injuries and have a big revenge game against Philadelphia on deck. I will gladly bet on the Knicks as the road underdogs in this spot!

2*Illinois +8.5

UConn had only three losses during the season. Two of these losses were against Creighton and Kansas, who had a size advantage over UConn. However, Illinois is also a team with a size advantage, ranked 8th at Kenpom. The Fighting Illini have a lot of experience, ranking 11th, and have played a tougher schedule (No. 24 vs. No. 37). The Huskies have a +12.3 point differential in road/neutral site games. In comparison, Illinois has a +7.5 point differential. The Huskies have held their opponents to 58 or fewer points in four straight games. I anticipate some negative regression. Take the underdog!

3*Illinois +2

The Fighting Illini currently has the top-ranked offense at Kenpom. While Iowa State is known for its excellent defense, they have mostly played against weaker opponents in non-conference games, ranking 345th in difficulty. Illinois has a more experienced team as they rank 11th in Division 1 experience, compared to Iowa State's ranking of 124th. Illinois also has a better free throw percentage, ranked 85th, whereas Iowa State ranks 293. Teams with size may challenge the Cyclones as Illinois ranks 8th in average team height, while Iowa State ranks 100th. Furthermore, Illinois is a much better rebounding team, ranking 6th compared to Iowa State's ranking of 238th. I will gladly take the points in this spot!

3*Clemson +4.5

The Baylor Bears have faced the third most challenging schedule overall, but they ranked 101st against non-conference opponents. On the other hand, the Clemson Tigers played the 33rd toughest schedule and were 69th in terms of non-conference opponents. Clemson has a higher ranking in free throw percentage (9 vs. 103), rebounds per game (78 vs. 198), turnovers (53 vs. 175), and blocks (83 vs. 198). According to advanced analytics, the Tigers have a better overall defense. We must take the points in this spot!

5*Utah State +4.5

Utah State faced a much more challenging non-conference schedule compared to TCU. However, both teams maintain a close point differential, with Utah State having a +7.4 and TCU having a +8.0 this season. Utah State is a skilled team that excels at scoring inside (ranked 12th in 2-point FG%) and defending three-point shots (ranked third in the nation), according to Kenpom. The team is led by Danny Sprinkle, known for his excellent coaching skills, especially with extra time to prepare. The Aggies have demonstrated their ability to bounce back this season, going 4-1 after a loss. Utah State is 10-1 SU when playing with five or six days of rest since 2021, including 4-0 this season. Take the points in this upset maker!

4*Drake Bulldogs -1.5

Four different Bulldogs players have made 42 or more 3-point field goals, with Tucker DeVries leading the pack with 84 and Atin Wright following closely with 60. Drake has a solid 37% 3-point shooting average and hits almost nine 3-pointers per game. DeVries is the best player in the MVC, averaging nearly 22 points per game and leading Drake in rebounding, assists, and steals. He is a big-time NBA prospect. Washington State has lost nine road/neutral site games, including Arizona State (129th at Kenpom) and California (123rd). The Cougars rank 268th in free throw percentage, while Drake ranks 38th. Washington State shouldn't be seeded this high. I like the Bulldogs to advance!

3*Iowa State +5.5

The Iowa State Cyclones were one of three teams to defeat the Houston Cougars, winning 57-53 in Ames, Iowa, on January 9th. Houston returned the favor to beat Iowa State 73-65 at home on February 19th. I am a big fan of Cyclones head coach T.J. Otzelberger. Iowa State is 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS avenging a road loss. Houston is 1-6 ATS after scoring 80 or more points this season. The Cougars have 6 ½ healthy players after the injury to J'wan Roberts. Iowa State is 5-0 all-time in Big 12 Championship games. The total implies a lower-scoring contest, so let's take the points with the Cyclones.

3*St. John's +9.5

Connecticut has won both matchups against the Red Storm this season. Rick Pitino is known for his coaching abilities when seeking double revenge in the postseason. The Huskies have already secured a No. 1 seed in the Big Dance, while Johnny is playing to get a higher seed. Pitino's crew can keep this game within the number. I was hoping for 10 points, but that's not happening.

4*St. Johns -3.5

After a humiliating loss to Seton Hall at home, where they blew a 19-point lead, the St. Johns Red Storm are on a 5-game win streak, thanks to Rick Pitino's leadership. Pitino has an excellent track record when seeking double same-season revenge and has proven to be outstanding in the postseason. St. Johns faced a more challenging non-conference schedule than their opponent (No. 148 vs. No. 241) and will play at Madison Square Garden, which has a home-court advantage of 3.9 points. I like the Red Storm in this spot!

4*Washington U +3

On March 5th, the USC Trojans won against Washington with a score of 82-75, even though they were 4.5-point underdogs. During the game, Washington allowed USC to shoot 54% from the field and 47% from beyond the arc. The Huskies ranked fourth in D-1 experience and will likely learn from this loss. All five starters on the team are seniors, and Mike Hopkins is a great head coach who achieved 20+ wins in 2018 and 2019. I make this point spread closer to zero. Play Washington U!

3*Houston Rockets +6.5

The Sacramento Kings have scored 130+ points in their last two games. Houston is ranked 11th in defensive efficiency while the Kings are ranked 22nd. The Kings could be looking ahead to their games against Milwaukee and the LA Lakers on Tuesday & Wednesday respectively. Sacramento is allowing 121 points per game at home. I think the Rockets can keep this within the number and possibly win outright!

4*Mississippi State -4

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are determined to win their 20th game on Senior Day and want to avenge their previous 68-62 loss against South Carolina on January 6th. Despite suffering three consecutive losses, the Bulldogs have the better defense (No. 18 vs. No. 40) at Kenpom. The Gamecocks rank 307th in turnover differential, and betting against teams like them in their last road games has been profitable. Since South Carolina has no chance of winning the SEC, they may lack motivation. The Bulldogs are 3-1 after dropping two or more games in a row this season, and the Humphrey Coliseum ranks 9th in home-court advantage. I like the home team in this spot!

3*New York Knicks +6.5

Both teams are dealing with injuries to key players. The Cavs are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games, while the Knicks are 1-10 ATS in their last eleven. After scoring under 100 points in consecutive games, New York is due for some positive scoring regression. Cleveland has a big revenge game against Boston on Tuesday. I like the points with the road team!

3*Wisconsin -1.5

Illinois hit the road after winning against Minnesota, 105-97 on Wednesday. The Fighting Illini had a shooting percentage of 55% on two-point shots and 70% from beyond the arc. Wisconsin lost at Indiana 74-70 on Tuesday, shooting just under 31% from three-point land. Despite recording 0 block shots, the Badgers had ten steals. Illinois is ranked 359th in creating turnovers and has a big revenge game against Purdue on deck. Their overall strength of schedule is ranked 46th, but they rank 247th in non-conference action. Wisconsin has played the fifth most demanding schedule overall, including 34th in non-conference games. The Badgers have a home record of 13-2 at Kohl Center this season, losing only to Tennessee and Purdue.

4*Kentucky -2

Alabama has scored 307 points in their last three games and now hit the road for the first time in two weeks. Kentucky can score with the best of the SEC and return home after a one-point loss in the final seconds at LSU. The Wildcats led 42-27 with 19:11 left in the second half and will be super focused in front of the 26th-ranked home-court advantage in the nation. The Rupp Arena holds 20,500, the sixth largest in Division 1. The Wildcats will be playing with revenge after the Crimson Tide won 78-52 last season, their largest margin of victory against Kentucky in school history. The Wildcats are 6-1 after a loss this season.

5*South Florida +6

South Florida's success this season has been built on their solid defense, which has limited opponents to 42.1 percent shooting from the floor and 31.1 percent from beyond the arc. However, they had a disappointing game on Wednesday night, with 15 turnovers, which did not please head coach Abdur-Rahim. The last time these two teams played each other was back in 2019, which should benefit the home team. Interestingly, fading ranked teams in the game immediately following their 20th win has proved profitable. As someone who values good defense, I will happily take the points with the underdog, especially since the game is sold out at the Yuengling Center.

4*Colorado State +6

San Diego State is determined to avenge their road loss against Colorado State. Hence, the majority of the public is rooting for the home team. However, the current line is exaggerated by at least two points. The Rams rank eighth in terms of effective FG percentage on offense, while the Aztecs are ranked 145th. Both teams are placed outside the top 230 in adjusted tempo, indicating a greater likelihood of a low-scoring, closely contested game. I like the road dog!

2*Kansas City Chiefs +2

The Kansas City Chiefs have played the most demanding strength of schedule this season, while the 49ers ranked 12th. Kansas City is ranked fifth in third-down defense, eighth in red zone defense, and sixth in special teams DVOA. Conversely, San Francisco is ranked 27th in third-down defense, 14th in red zone defense, and 25th in special teams. Patrick Mahomes is 10-1-1 ATS as an underdog in his career and should feast against the 49ers zone defense. Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo are difficult to conquer with extra preparation time. Kansas City is 4-0 at Allegiant Stadium and should feel right at home. The Chiefs will win back-to-back Super Bowls for the first time since New England accomplished the feat in 2003-04.

Patrick Mahomes Under 0.5 interceptions (-120)

Patrick Mahomes has zero turnover-worthy plays in his last four games. Throughout his career, he has only thrown seven interceptions in 17 postseason games and has not thrown any interceptions in his previous six games. The defense is performing exceptionally well, and Patrick understands he does not need to make risky throws.

Longest FG Over 47.5 yards (-125)

Both kickers possess strong legs, and Allegiant Stadium's altitude of 2,190 feet and indoor setting make it conducive to kicks over 50 yards. 

Travis Kelce Over 69.5 receiving yards (-130)

Travis has exceeded this number in all three playoff games, averaging 87.3 yards. Kelce has been performing exceptionally well, averaging over 90 receiving yards with extra preparation time. Kelce will have a lot of success against the 49ers zone defense. This number keeps climbing and would take it up to 79.5. According to my model, his predicted performance is 89.5 yards.

4*Washington U +8.5

Oregon upset Washington 76-74 as 4.5-point road underdogs on January 4th. The Huskies matchup quite well against the Ducks. This line is now inflated after opening at six. We are getting great value on the underdog. Speaking of underdogs, they are 7-3 ATS in the last ten meetings. Play Washington in this major overlay!

5*St. Joe's +3

St. Joseph's is returning all five starters from last year's team. Last year's squad was eliminated by Dayton in the first round of the Atlantic-10 tournament, losing 60-54 as 10.5-point underdogs. This defeat ended the Hawks' season. Additionally, Dayton will have a chance to avenge their loss against VCU in the A-10 title game from last season on Friday. The Flyers are facing a tough look-ahead spot in this double revenge angle. I like the home team in this spot!

4*St. Johns +4

In December, the Connecticut Huskies won against St. Johns with a score of 69-65. They were 11-point home favorites. The Red Storm has been eagerly waiting for a rematch ever since. They have a great chance to defeat the top-ranked team in the nation. St. Johns has played the tenth most challenging schedule, while Uconn is ranked 51st in the strength of schedule. The Red Storm are 8-2 at home and have a higher consistency per possession, considering turnovers, steals, blocks, rebounds, and points. These key metrics are averaged together, and the Red Storm ranks higher than the Huskies. I like the home team quite a bit!

3*Ohio State +4

The Ohio State Buckeyes have lost 12 straight road games and are winless in conference away games. However, I still rate the Buckeyes higher, as they have played a tougher non-conference schedule and rank higher in consistency. With the Cornhuskers not at full strength, this is a great spot to back a motivated Ohio State squad.

3*Kansas City Chiefs +3

In December, the Buffalo Bills had two weeks to prepare when they defeated the Chiefs 20-17 as 1-point road dogs. Also, the Chiefs were without their top two linebackers. This time, the Chiefs will have the rest advantage (two days), and the Bills are dealing with numerous injuries, especially on defense. I think it’s a tall task for backups to contain Patrick Mahomes and company this time of year. The Chiefs own the better DVOA defense (#7 vs. #12) and special teams (#6 vs. #15). Finally, Patrick Mahomes is 8-1 ATS in his career as an underdog, winning seven of those games outright. I like the road dog in this spot!

4*St. John's +1

The St. John's Red Storm return home after two consecutive road losses where they only made 9 of 32 three-point shots. This is lower than their season's average of 34.2%. On the other hand, the Golden Eagles have a negative point differential of minus-1.3 in away games, while St. Johns has a point differential of plus-17 in their home games. Marquette will play just their third road game in over a month. St. John’s ranks significantly higher in rebounds and blocked shots. In the quarter-finals of the Big East tournament last March, Marquette eliminated the Red Storm with a score of 72-70. The home team looks to improve their record to 5-0 this season after allowing 80 or more points in this colossal revenge spot.

4*Kansas City Chiefs -3.5

The Miami Dolphins are different from the team we saw earlier in the season as they deal with multiple injuries, especially on defense. Speaking of defense, the Dolphins were on the field for 77 plays and will be playing on a short week. The Kansas City Chiefs are well-rested and will have a massive advantage of playing in freezing weather at home. The Chiefs are ranked 10th in third-down defense and 8th in red-zone defense, while Miami is ranked 20th on third-down defense and 28th in defending the red zone. The Chiefs rank 8th in opponent passer rating, while the Dolphins rank 24th. Kansas City ranks 6th in special teams DVOA, while Miami is ranked 22nd. I will swallow 3.5 points!

10*Tennessee Titans +5.5

The Tennessee Titans were eliminated from playoff contention after losing to the Jaguars in week 18 last season. They have dropped eight straight division games from 2022, including three against Jacksonville. The Jags had lost four straight before defeating the Carolina Panthers 26-0 last week. We are getting two extra points of value. Houston recorded six sacks against the Titans last week, but Jacksonville is ranked 27th in sack rate. The Jags committed just one penalty last week, and I expect a negative regression. The Jaguars own a +0.66 net yards per play on the road, while Tennessee owns a +0.62 net yards at home. Mike Vrabel is 24-12-2 ATS as an underdog of 3 or more points. Revenge is sweet!

3*Iowa State +3

The Cyclones are gearing up to face the 11th-ranked Sooners in Norman, OK. They managed to pull off a victory last year as 3.5-point underdogs. This year's Iowa State team has the potential to win the game outright once again. Even when playing at home, I would only make Oklahoma 1-point favorites in this matchup. The road team is ranked higher on offense and defense, according to KenPom.

4*Oklahoma State +2.5

Texas A&M will be without 11 players due to injuries, opt-outs, and the transfer portal. Head coach Jimbo Fisher is out, and former Duke head coach Mike Elko will take over starting next season. The Aggies went 1-5 straight-up and 1-4-1 against the spread vs fellow bowl teams, while the Cowboys went 4-4 SU and 4-4 ATS this season. Texas A&M went 1-4 SU and 1-3-1 ATS vs. winning teams, while Oklahoma State went 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS vs. winning teams. QB Alan Bowman and RB Ollie Gordon II (Doak Walker award winner) should have a field day against a defense missing several key starters. I love Mike Gundy in games when his team is an underdog (11-6 ATS in the last three seasons).

4*Northern Illinois +1

Northern Illinois has dropped seven straight bowl games and should be super motivated to win this game. Arkansas State played a slightly tougher schedule, but ignoring these stats is hard. The Red Wolves own a minus- 3.4 point differential and minus- 70-yard differential per game, while the Huskies are plus- 4.1 and- plus- 48, respectively. Arkansas State went 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS while getting outgained (-155 YPG) in seven of the eight games against fellow bowl teams. Northern Illinois went 3-1 SU and 3-1 ATS while outgaining (+7) three of four matchups. Arkansas State is ranked 127th (dead last), while Northern Illinois is ranked 23rd in total defense of all the bowl teams. Defense travels well. I love the underdog!

3*Buffalo Bills -2

The Dallas Cowboys will be playing their first road game since November 19th. They are coming off a colossal division revenge victory last Sunday, where they benefited from three Eagles turnovers and ten penalties for 95 yards. Speaking of those pesky yellow flags, Dallas is ranked 32nd in penalties per game (7.5). Dallas owns net yards per play of +0.22 on the road, while Buffalo has a +1.37 net yards per play at home. The Cowboys haven’t played any game this season when the kickoff temperature is below 50 degrees. We have a 7-6 team favored over a 10-3 team. The odds-makers want you to bet on Dallas. Not so fast. Buffalo is the more desperate team and can win in this spot.