15* graded play on the Buffalo Bills as they host the Cleveland Browns in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that the Bills will win this game by 6 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 28-9 ATS mark for 76% winners since 2008. Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (BUFFALO) after a game where they committed no turnovers and is now facing an opponent after a game where they committed three or more turnovers. Kyle Orton has been critiqued unfairly with the talking heads always looking in the rear view mirror in evaluating his performance. The simple fact is he is a very intelligent QB and athlete, who just does not make mistakes and makes the plays necessary to put his team in position to win the game. His passer accuracy rating is fourth-best in the NFL. Bills have two elite defensive tackles in Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams and they will contain any form of ground attack from the Browns. The Bills got a real hidden gem in the third round of the draft in linebacker Preston Brown, who ranks best in the NFL ahead of Von Miller based on tackle efficiency grade. Take the Bills. 

25* graded play on Kansas as they take on Kansas State in BIG-12 Conference action set to start at 4:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Kansas will lose this game by fewer than 24 points. This game is a near match to the 25* shocker I had on Kansas when they nearly took out TCU. They led that game 27-17 entering the 4th quarter. I am not suggesting at all that you will see the same sort of game, but I do strongly believe Kansas can match up with them and compete for the entire game. Now, you may point out that Kansas was destroyed last week by Oklahoma in a 44-7 route. However, Kansas is a perfect 7-0 ATS after a loss by 35 or more points over the last three seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 37-12 ATS mark for 76% winners since 19912. This system has posted a 10-2 ATS mark the last five seasons and perfect 3-0 ATS the last three seasons. Play on road underdogs of 21.5 or more points (KANSAS) after gaining 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game and with eight or more offensive starters including the QB returning from last year's squad. Kansas has been steadily improving on offense and I believe they can compete against a K-State team that just might more focused on next week's potential showdown with Baylor. Take Kansas.

25* graded play on Penn State University as they host Michigan State in Happy Valley in Big Ten Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that PSU will keep this game to fewer than 10 points. If you believe in the upset adding a 3* play using the money line makes perfect sense. The PSU defense is the most under rated group of defenders not only in the Big Ten, but the nation. They rank best allowing just 267 yards per game, third in scoring defense, 6th in points per play allowed, best allowing just 3.9 yards per play, send allowing just 27% third down conversions, and 5th allowing just 5.7 yards per pass. Certainly they will be severely tested by a strong MSU offensive attack, but I firmly believe PSU will win the 'war'. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 31-10 ATS mark for 76% winners since 2003. Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MICHIGAN ST) after leading in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half and is now facing an opponent after scoring seven points or less in the first half in two straight games. 48% of the plays covered the spread by 7 or more points. Take Penn State. 

25* graded play on the Mississippi as they take on Mississippi State in SEC Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET.   The simulator shows a high probability that Ole Miss will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a very strong 25-7 mark using the Money Line and has made 24 units/unit wagered since 1992. It has averaged a solid +121 DOG play and is a perfect 2-0 this season.  Play on a road team using the money line (MISSISSIPPI ST) after beating the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game and is now facing an opponent after being beaten by the spread by more than 28 points in their previous game. Based on the summary of projections, I am confident Rebels will score at least 28 points. In past games, Rebels are a solid 5-2 ATS this season, 18-5 ATS the L3 seasons when scoring 28 or more points. I also see them having a monster day on offense and will gain 400 to 450 total yards. This has been a rare occurrence for the team, but when they do achieve this elite level of offensive production, they are a  6-1 ATS L3 seasons. In the current season they are 4-1 ATS. I simply do not see this team as one that is out of gas, especially playing this heated rival and a chance to knock them out of the playoff. Take the Rebels. 

25* graded play on Arkansas as they take on Missouri in SEC action set to start at 2:30 PM ET.  Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 72-28 ATS mark for 72% winners since 2008. This system is an impressive 21-7 ATS this season and 54-15 ATS over the past three seasons. 45% of all of these plays made covered the spread by 7 or more points. Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ARKANSAS) off 1 or more consecutive 'unders' and is a good offensive team scoring 31 or more points/game. Here is a second system that has gone 36-13 ATS for 74% winners since 2008. 56% of these plays covered the spread by 7+ points. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ARKANSAS) off 2 consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals, after the first month of the season. Arkansas is playing well and certainly will be a contender next season. They continue to build toward that future. They are also a resounding 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers this season. I always go back to by 25* winner with Arkansas when they went on the road and nearly took then no-1 Miss State into Overtime. They had not won an SEC game in nearly two seasons, but were only installed as 11 point road favorites in that game. This simply reflects how deep the SEC is right now and how incredibly tough the SEC West Division has been this season. Arkansas' running game is quite good and Missouri has had immense trouble against these type of squads. In fact, since Pinkel became HC , his Tigers are a money burning  3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games facing solid rushing teams averaging >=200 rushing yards/game. Take Arkansas. 

25* graded play on Northern Illinois as they take on Western Michigan in MAC Conference action set to start at 11:00 AM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that NIU will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at winning the game. I like making this a combination wager using a 21* wager on the line and a 4* play using the money line. Three teams are tied atop the MAC West Division at 6-1: Northern Illinois, Western Michigan and Toledo. All three take the field Friday and obviously one of these teams will be eliminated from that race. NIU simply has to win this game and they claim the West Title and will play East winner Bowling Green. Toledo is the third team in the mix and they need loss by NIU and a win over EMU, who has just one conference win. WMU needs to win and then hope for the highly improbable upset by EMU over Toledo. So, I believe the reality of the situation is that the NI players simply know that no matter what happens in their game, Toledo is just not going to lose to EMU. So, you have one team that knows if they win they are in and the other knowing the chances for a Conference Championship game are very slim. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 87-45 ATS mark for 66% winners since 2003. Play against home favorites om conference matchups (W MICHIGAN) in a game involving two mistake-free teams committing

25* graded play on the Texas Longhorns as they take on TCU in Big-12 Conference action set to start at 7:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Texas will lose this game by fewer than 7 points. Normally, I would consider a combination wager consisting of a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line, but the risk/reward profile just does not validate the added risk. So, simply stick with a 25* play using the line. What I do like, though is adding a 10* play using the 'over' for this contest. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 31-9 ATS mark for 78% winners since 2003. Play against road favorites (TCU) that is an excellent offensive team scoring >=34 PPG and is now facing an average defensive team allowing between 21 and 28 PPG and after a win by 6 or less points. During this win streak ATS, one of the winners was the 25* play on +28 1/2 point dog Kansas, who led 27-17 in the fourth quarter against TCU. Kansas ended up losing 34-30 but easily covered the huge number. Both teams played 12 days ago and will be a full strength and this helps Texas far more than it does TCU. Since losing 23-0 at K-State October 25, Texas has ripped off three impressive wins and covers where both the offense and defense played at elite levels. Most notable was the marked improvement in the ground attack and the run defense. These are the two ingredients necessary for a dog to pull off a big time upset of a ranked opponent. TCU ranks second in scoring offense and 7th in passing yards. Texas defense is 4th best against the run allowing just 3.9 yards per rush. Take the Longhorns.

25* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they host the Philadelphia Eagles in a critical NFC East matchup set to start Thanksgiving Day at 4:30 PM ET. I also have a 15* play 'under' for this game. I don't believe adding a parlay is warranted since there is already 40* amount of risk on this game. However, if you want to parlay these picks, then don't use more than a 5*  The simulator shows a high probability that Dallas will win this game by 6 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 37-14 ATS mark for 73% winners since 1983. All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DALLAS) off an extremely close road win by 3 points or less and is a good team winning between 60% to 75% and is now playing a team with a winning record. 45% of the games played based on the criteria of this system have covered the spread by seven or more points. I fully expect the Dallas offense to be in top gear and will score between 22 and 28 points and average more than 6.0 yards per play. In past games, the Eagles are just 4-10 ATS L3 seasons when allowing 22 to 28 points and 4-14 ATS L3 seasons when allowing more than 6.0 yards per play. You won't be surprised by the fact that I positively love the matchups that Dallas has and will dominate on both sides of the LOS. They rank second gaining 150 rushing yards per game and are going against an Eagle defense ranking 26th allowing 375 yards per game. Eagles are good on offense ranking 4th in yards per game, but rank just 28th in red zone scoring. Dallas defense ranks 13th in take-aways while Eagles are DEAD LAST  in give-aways. Eagles have 26th worst turnover margin. The Chip Kelly (Oregon offense) is designed to snap the ball quickly between plays and catch the defense not prepared or not able to substitute personnel. As a result the Eagles rank 30th in TOP. However, in this matchup that may be the worst thing the Eagles can do. Dallas ranks 4th best in TOP as they are quite well equipped to generate long time consuming scoring drives with either/both a power ground attack and elite passing attacks. Dez Bryant and Jason Whitten have a great matchups. This will force the Eagles to double team at least one of them. In turn, Dallas can use Bryant as a decoy and allow Romo to target  Terrance Williams, who is listed as questionable. Even he does not go in this game, the Cowboys have depth at WR with Devin Street, Cole Beasley, and Donald Hawkins, all of which could have big days with all the attention and focus the Eagles will have on Bryant and Whitten. The Dallas OL is the best in the NFL and I fully expect them to dominate the LOS. The Eagles have been very successful with using a wide array of blitzes, but I don't see that working against this OL. 

25* graded play on the Baltimore Ravens as they take on the New Orleans Saints in Monday Night Football action set to start at 8:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Baltimore will win this game. I also like making this a combination wager using a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Let's look at the technical side first. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 55-25 ATS mark good for 69% winners since 1983 and is on a 5-0 ATS run over the last three seasons. Play against home favorites (NEW ORLEANS) that are good rushing teams averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards/attempt and after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game. Saints have lost two straight games and the defense was torched in both of those losses to San Francisco and Carolina. Not a good situation for tha saints as their HC Payton is 9-24 ATS (-17.4 Units) after allowing 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game. Let's take a detailed look at the fundamentals supporting my case for the upset win. Brees has an excellent pass grade of +22.0, which is third-best among all quarterbacks, a Quarterback Rating  of 94.54 good for fifth-best, and an Accuracy Percentage  of 80.8% third-best out of 37 qualifying quarterbacks. However, when facing pressure, which has been on 33.6% of his drop-backs, Brees’ production has dipped significantly. When dealing with pressure, Brees’ accuracy percentage falls to 73.6%, not a substantial decrease, but a decrease nonetheless. The vast reason for cause is the fact that Brees has thrown a league-tying six interceptions when under pressure, in comparison to just two touchdowns. Bress will facing three of the best pass rushers in the NFL in Elvis Dumervil, Pernell McPhee, and Terrell Suggs. Dumervil ranks best in various pass rush categories with McPhee raning third-best. I am confident that the Ravens will blitz far more than 33% of plays and closer to 60% and use a wide array of angles and gaps to completely confuse Brees' pre-snap reads. You'll also see McPhee line up in multiple locations as he has rushed from the right side 53% of the time and 38% from the left side of the LOS. Now, on the other side of the ball, the Saints secondary has been horrid with only one player, Patrick Robinson, grading positively in pass defense this season. They have regressed significantly over the past three week sand Flaco is an experienced field general, who will just not make mistakes. Instead, the Ravens will show a few formation wrinkles to allow them to get Steve Smith isolated in man coverage or to find areas in the zone for Flacco to execute very high percentage completions. Take Baltimore.

25* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they host the Washington Redskins in NFC action set to start at 4:25 PM ET.  Biggest news Sunday is that if RG III is ineffective he will be replaced and benched. That can't bode much confidence for the rest of the unit. A bright note for the Redskins has been the elite play by LT Trent Williams. However, he will not be playing today and is listed as doubtful with an MCL. Rookie Morgan Moses will be given the near-impossible task of protecting the blind side against Aldon Smith and/or Aaron Lynch in blitz schemes. The duo combined for the best pass rushing ratings in Week 11 and I fully expect them to be getting to all Redskin Quarterbacks this afternoon. Pressure will be most effective from the perimeters since Redskins Center Kory Lichtensteiger has allowed only eight QB hurries in 384 passing block plays. I expect the 49ers to score between 22 and 28 points. In past games when the 49ers score between 22 and 28 points they have posted a 12-2 ATS mark over the L3 seasons and a perfect 4-0 ATS mark this season.Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 52-25 ATS for 68% winners since 2008. Play against favorites (SAN FRANCISCO) after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers and is now facing an opponent after a game where they committed three or more turnovers. Here is another game situation that matches my expectations. Washington has been a money burning 1-7 ATS L3 seasons when they have allowed 300 to 350 offensive yards. Take the 49ers. 

Arizona is playing well and has posted the best record in the NFL. However, they know face their stiffest test in the Seattle Seahawks Sunday. Seattle has several favorable matchups starting with their run defense. Arizona has been unable to get a ground attack going this year ranking 30th averaging 80 rushing yards per game. Seattle has a very strong defensive front seven ranking seventh in run defense allowing 90.8 rushing yards per game. I fully expect the Seattle run defense to dominate the Arizona ground game and force them into third-and-long situations. With a limited ground attack, Seattle will not be vulnerable to play action and can send pressure from numerous angles in passing downs. Seattle ranks third in pass defense allowing 215 yards per game. Another matchup I see Seattle winning is their ground game led by Lynch that ranks best in the NFL gaining 174 yards per game. Arizona has a great run defense ranking third, but I don't see this unit containing them. In fact, last week Lynch made contact with tacklers only 6 times behind the line of scrimmage in 24 carries against Kansas City. He also forced six missed tackles and gained 70 yards after first contact. The ability to successfully execute the power running game will open up a multitude of passing options for Wilson and his receivers that will be in man coverage situations. 

Arizona backup quarterback Stanton has played above expectations, but last week's win over Detroit was marred by some very poor decisions. In one play, he through a post route, but failed miserably to identify the underneath coverage by linebacker Josh Bynes. Seattle is arguably the best in underneath man and zone execution and disguise those schemes very well pre-snap. Seattle will look to force Stanton to make high risk throws over the middle of the field that may lead to several interceptions. 

Looking at the technical side of this matchup there is a a very strong system that has gone 33-7 ATS  for 83% winners since 2003. Play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that struggle to run the ball gaining between 70 and 95 yards per game and are now facing a team with a strong rushing defense allowing between 70 and 95 rushing yards per game. This system clearly underpins the fundamental matchups that I strongly believe Seattle will win. 

I also project that Seattle will gain 150 or more rushing yards. In past games, Arizona is just 1-6 ATS when allowing 150 or more rushing yards in games played over the last three seasons. On the other side of the ball, I expect Arizona to have less than 75 rushing yards. In past games, Seattle is a stout 3-1 ATS this season and 12-4 ATS the past three seasons. Take Seattle and lay the points.

Minnesota is getting 10 points in a home game against divisional rival Green Bay. I strongly believe that this double digit dog will stay within the posted number and make the Packers work hard to earn the win. The Packers are coming off a blowout win over a completely over matched Eagles squad. They rank first in the NFL in several offensive scoring categories. The Vikings though have a solid defense and one where the matchups are quite favorable in at least containing the Packers juggernaut. 

The Vikings lost to Chicago last week in a game that was marred by a malfunctioning game clock that impacted the end of the game. Still, they had chances to win. QB Bridgewater had a solid agme, but chose to check down to high percentage completions. The large majority of his throws were between the sideline numbers and within 10 yard of the line of scrimmage. He will challenge the Packers secondary that has been suspect in vertical routes periodically. Moreover, the Packers have not yet proved they can stop the run. I see the Vikings ground attack strong enough for the Packers to respect and this in turn will open play action for Bridgewater. That extra second or so to scan the field will allow him to identify the best opportunity in a man coverage situation. 

Another matchup that favors the Vikings is defensive end Everson Griffin, who has had three impressive games. He dominated the left side of the Bears offensive line and recorded five hurries last week. He has a great matchup this week that i expect to see end in a greater number of hurries on Packer general Rogers. 

Vikings defensive tackle Sharif Floyd had by far his best game against the Bears with tremendous lateral pursuit and gap discipline. His play will be critical at the point of attack in blowing up run plays and collapsing the pocket. Moreover, he will destroy any weak side blocking forcing those run plays to the extreme perimeter. 

The betting public is all over Green Bay in this matchup on the results of last week's blowout win over the Eagles. In fact, 81% of all bets made on this game are on the Packers and this is a sure sign of irrational exuberance by the betting public. This type of frenzied wagering flows serves to reinforce and further support the play on Minnesota. Take the Minnesota Vikings and as an option consider adding a small amount using the money line to take advantage of the possible shocking upset. 

50* graded play on the UCLA Bruins as they take on USC Trojans in a huge PAC-12 Conference game set to start at 8:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that UCLA will win this game by at least 7 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 43-11 ATS mark for 80% winners since 2003. Play against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (USC) off 2 straight wins against conference rivals and is now facing an opponent off a double digit road win. The following game situations match my expectations for what will occur in the game. UCLA is 2-0 ATS this season, 7-0 ATS the past three seasons, and 25-6 ATS since 1992 when they have gained 450 to 500 offensive yards. I also see UCLA scoring at least 28 points. USC is a miserable 1-3 ATS this season, 3-11 ATS the past three seasons, and 15-60 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 28 or more points. Further, head coach Jim More, JR. has a great history of preparing his team when facing an elite foe. He has posted a 9-2 ATS when playing against a strong team winning between 60% to 75% of their games as the coach of UCLA. Two of the best QB's in the nation square off in this game with UCLA's Hundley and USC's Kessler. I give the advantage though to Hundley with his duel threat and experience under center. A matchup worth watching in this game is how I see UCLA being able to neutralize USC's best defensive player in DE Williams. UCLA has a great running back in Paul Perkins, who ranks second in the PAC-12 gaining 117 yards-per-game. The UCLA team ranks second in the conference and 27th in the nation gaining 217 rushing yards per game. Hundley is first in the nation in completion percentage and given the solidi ground attack will enjoy plenty of time int he pocket in play action. His ability to extend the play further is also a huge advantage for his receivers to create separation and make big plays downfield. USC will get their points as well, but I just do not see them being able to keep pace with the UCLA offense. Take the Bruins. 

15* graded play on Tulane as they take on East Carolina in American Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Tulane will lose this game by fewer than 17 points. ECU had some impressive wins early int eh season, but that has been more than offset with two consecutive losses that have taken them out of any contention for the Conference Title.  Tulane has struggled on offense this season, but they have a strong secondary that i see matching up well against the ECU passing attack that ranks 2nd in passing yards in the nation. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting an amazing 25-2 ATS mark for 93% winners since 2003 and has gone a perfect 10-0 ATS over the last three seasons. Play against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (ECU) that are off 1 or more straight 'overs' and is an explosive offensive team scoring >=34 PPG and is now facing a struggling offensive team scoring between 16 and 21 PPG after 7+ games. Take Tulane plus the points.  

15* graded play on Rutgers as they take on Michigan State in Big Ten Conference action set to start at Noon ET. Although this is a home game, it is one where MSU could very easily fall flat and not take Rutgers seriously. They lost to Ohio State two weeks ago ending any chance at a National Championship or entry into the playoff format. They held it together last week against Maryland, but now two weeks past the big upset loss and playing what appears to be a vastly inferior foe, they are ripe for Rutgers to give them a test. Rutgers is bowl eligible in their first season in the Big Ten, but a big effort here - even in a loss - would make them an attractive team for many of the pre-New Years bowls. Rutgers has a sneaky-good passing attack that ranks 19th in the nation gaining 8.3 passing yards per attempt. Their offense is designed to run first and average 57% run plays. In play action, Rutgers has been outstanding and this is a real weakness in the MSU secondary. Ohio State repeatedly used play action and little bubble screens to generate big plays after the catch and keep the chains moving downfield. I certainly don't expect Rutgers to execute to that degree of success, but will be far more successful than most observers believe possible. I expect them to gain between 8.0 and 8.5 net passing yards per attempt. In past games, MSU is just 3-16 ATS when they have allowed 8.0 to 8.5 net passing yards in games played since 1992.  Take Rutgers.

15* graded play on Oklahoma as they take on Kansas in Big-12 Conference action set to start at Noon ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Oklahoma will win this game by 27 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 51-12 ATS mark for 81% winners since 2008. Play against any team (KANSAS) in a conference matchup that is a struggling rushing team gaining between 3 to 3.5 YPR and is now facing a team with a good rushing defense allowing between 3 to 3.5 YPR. The following game situations match my projections for the game. Oklahoma is a resounding 3-1 ATS this season, 10-1 ATS the past three seasons, and 63-16 ATS since 1992 when they have out gained their opponent by 2.0 or more yards per play; 4-2 ATS this season, 11-3 ATS the past three seasons, and 51-21 ATS when they gain 6.5 or more yards per play. Sooners roll big.

15* graded play on San jose State as they take on Utah State in Mountain West Conference action set to start at 9:30 PM ET and will be seen on ESPN2/WatchESPN.  The simulator shows a high probability that San Jose State will lose this game by fewer than 14 points. Here are a few historical precedents that support this play. SJS is a solid 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game since 1992; 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) after scoring 6 points or less last game since 1992; 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after playing a game at home over the last 3 seasons. Utah State has lost three quarterbacks in the month of October. Feshman Kent Myers has done a tremendous job coming in off the bench and has won three straight games. He has thrown for 531 yards on a remarkable 43-of-57 passing and a 173 QB rating. however, he has been sacked 8 times and you can bet SJS will be bring pressure from a wide array of angles. There is enough game film now that SJS can fully prepare for him. Moreover, his average throw has not been all that vertical. If you factor out the lone 70 yard completion his passes have been short. This also reflects that Utah State has done well after the catch and gained most of the passing yards after the catch. I fully expect SJS to tackle well and play a very disciplined scheme tonight that will make if difficult for Utah State to keep the chains moving. Take San jose State.

25* graded play on the Oakland Raiders as they host the Kansas City Chiefs in NFL Thursday Night Football action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 23-5 ATS mark for 82% winners since 2003. Play against favorites (KANSAS CITY) off an upset win as a home underdog and with a winning record on the season. This system has gone an impressive 15-3 ATS over the past three seasons. Here is a second system that has gone 98-50 ATS for 66% winners since 1983. Play on underdogs or pick (OAKLAND) after seven or more consecutive losses. This system reflects the public's continued abandonment of a losing team, which then forces the line for these games to become significantly inflated. This is a game that Oakland can win. I would suggest playing a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Head Coach Sparono has a nice track record posting a solid 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) mark facing solid rushing teams averaging >=4.5 rushing yards/carry in all games he has coached. The Raiders offense has struggled to produce multiple play scoring drives. Yet, they rank 2nd best in red zone scoring. The key to this game is to get their ground attack to gain respect from a KC defensive front that ranks 25th in rushing yards allowed per game. This in turn can open up opportunities in play action situations for rookie QB Derek Carr to execute. Raiders have given up the league fewets sacks mainly because the passing game is forced to throw quick slants and outs. Yet, the ground attack can work against KC and then Carr will have that extra time to step up and throw accurate passes. The Raiders have tremendous speed on the perimeter that will be a major advantage when they catch KC in man coverage. I had Oakland last week as a winning cover and despite not having any wins, they are improving now that Carr has been under center. Take Oakland. 

25* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take to the road to play the Indianapolis Colts in an AFC showdown set to start on Sunday Night Football at 8:30 PM ET.  I'm getting the more experienced and vastly better team with points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 23-4 ATS mark for 85.2% winners since 2003. Play against any team (INDIANAPOLIS) off 1 or more straight 'overs' and i snow facing an opponent off six or more consecutive 'overs'. This is a pure situational system and it reflects the fact that the team with the 6 or more 'over' is also playing a high level of offensive execution. The system has gone a very nice 13-1 ATS over the last five seasons.  Moreover, Brady is 12-4 ATS as a 'dog' spanning all games played over the last five seasons; 9-4 as a 'dog' in road tilts. Colts QB Luck has thrown seven interceptions in his last two games facing Belichick and the Patriots. Brady is playing the best QB play in the NFL. In the first four weeks, he struggled mightily and ranked 25th in the NFL. However, whatever was wrong was fixed thereafter as he ranks first in several meaningful offensive QB categories. For example, he connected on just 1 of 16 deep passes (20+ yards from LOS to point of reception) attempts in the first four weeks. Since, he has connected on 10 of 21 deep balls. Like Brady, Gronkowski started off slowly, but over the last four games, he ranks best in the NFL in overall rating, receptions, receiving yards, and yards after the catch. Luck has his offense running well, but the Patriots have the defensive matchups that will contain their offense. Hightower has been the second-best inside linebacker in pass coverage this season. The defensive unit has been playing extremely well and rarely make mistakes in coverage or gap disciplines. Take the Patriots.

25* graded play on the Raiders as they take on the San Diego Chargers in AFC West action set to start at 4:05 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Raiders will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. The Raiders are much better than their record indicates. Raiders will have several solid matchups that can exploit while on offense. Rookie QB Carr gets the ball out quick averaging just 2.60 seconds from snap to release. This will minimize the Charger blitzes and force them to play a base cover-2 zone. In turn, Carr will be able to use play action to set up opportunities to his very fast WR that will be in man coverage. Further, Carr has one of the best guards in the NFL. Rookie guard Gabe Jackson has not allowed a sack in 322 pass block snaps. I also like the matchup with TE Rivera set up in the slot. This formation has done very well recently and it exposes the Chargers defensive weakness. Charger defense has been terrible and history shows they are just 4-15 ATS in home games after allowing 35 points or more last game since 1992. For his career, HC Sparano, is 12-2 ATS in road games when facing solid passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting an amazing 33-9 ATS mark for 79% winners since 1983. Play on road teams in Weeks 10 through 13 after six or more consecutive losses. This system has gone a perfect 5-0 ATS over the last three seasons. It's certainly a contrarian play, but it is the right one. Take the Raiders. 

25* graded play on the St. Louis Rams as they host the Denver Broncos in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. Too many points to be giving a solid Rams team at home in this spot. Denver's wideouts is the main cog that make the Denver offensive machine difficult to contain. However, I really like how the Rams secondary stacks up agains these wideouts. Rookie cornerback EJ Gaines is playing at a very high level and ranks third in coverage grade. Rodney McCloud is playing very well at free safety and is one of the best tacklers in the NFL. Another rookie Aaron Donald is playing like a veteran and has graded very high in run stoppage. Further, defensive end William Hayes ranks among the Top-10 in the NFL. I expect Manning to be pressured up the middle and will not have near enough time to go through his read progressions. On offense, The rams will have an excellent matchup targeting TE Jared Cook. The Rams have done well against elite offenses. They are a near-perfect  8-1 ATS when facing a strong offensive team in the second half of the season that are averaging >=5.65 yards/play in games played over the last 3 seasons. Despite the losing record, the Rams have been a very resilient team coming off a bad loss. Rams under the leadership of HC Fisher are 10-1 ATS after a loss by 14 or more points in games played spanning the last 3 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 33-12 ATS mark for 73.3% winners since 2008.  Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ST LOUIS) after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games. Take the Rams.

25* graded play on Oregon State as they take on Arizona State in PAC-12 action set to start at 10:45 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that OSU will lose this game by fewer than seven points and have a great shot at a shocking upset win over no.7 ranked ASU. The media reports have outlined the path for the Sun Devils to gain a berth in the NCAA playoff Championship format. However, this path focuses not on the present,but rather the last game of the regular season against Arizona and then with a win the PAC-12 Championship game against No.3 Oregon. After five straight wins with four over ranked opponents it will be very difficult for ASU to not look ahead over a 4-5 Oregon State team. Oregon State has a wide open offense that ranks 18th in completion percentage and 30th in passing yards per game. ASU has been exploited in the back end of the defense in nearly every game and I fully expect this will be the case tonight. ASU ranks 89th in passing yards allowed and 86th getting an interception on just 2.2% of all opponent passing plays. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 26-8 mark using the MONEY LINE for 77% winners and has made 34 units/unit wagered averaging a +160 DOG play. Play on a home team using the money line (OREGON ST) that are off two straight losses to conference rivals allowing 31 or more points in those two losses and with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent. Further, I expect the OSU passing game to average between 7.5 to 8.0 net passing yards and to score at least 28 points. Good news in previous games. OSU is a solid 3-0 ATS when gaining 7.5 to 8.0 net passing yards in games played over the  last three seasons and 13-6 ATS when scoring 28 or more points in games played over the last three seasons. OSU Senior QB, Sean Mannion holds the PAC-12 Conference passing record and has a very strong 142 QB rating in home games this season. Last week he completed 31-of-41 passes for 419 yards and earned an amazing 170 QB rating. I don't see ASU being able to contain Mannion and the passing attack. Take Oregon State. 

25* graded play on Maryland as they host Michigan State in BIG TEN Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Maryland will cover the current 12 point spread rather easily. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 24-5 ATS mark for 83% winners since 2008. Play against road favorites (Michigan State) that are elite offensive teams gaining >=440 YPG and is now facing an average offensive team gaining between 330 to 390 YPG and after coming a poor defensive performance allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. 50% of these plays made based on the system criteria covered by more than 7 points. Spartans coming off a very emotional loss to Ohio State that eliminated their playoff hopes and also a Big Ten Championship. I fully expect the letdown factor to be quite strong and evident. Maryland is coming a near opposite type of win going on the road to Penn State and winning 20-19. Maryland defense was quite strong allowing just 42 rushing yards on 41 attempts and 177 yards passing yards. They also forced 4 turnovers. Take Maryland. 

15* graded play on Arkansas as they take on LSU in SEC action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Arkansas will win this game and end their losing ways in SEC Conference action. I had played on Arkansas in their easy cover and near-miss at Mississippi State a few weeks ago. It simply demonstrates the immense depth and level of play inherent int he SEC. Arkansas, who has not won a Conference game in nearly two full seasons was installed as just an 11 point dog to the best team in the nation. Now they catch LSU off of two very emotional and physically pounding games. The last one an OT loss to Alabama in Death Valley. Losing in OT is one of the most difficult experiences coaching staffs have to overcome to get their college players prepared for the next game. I don't see that happening and I definitely see Arkansas winning. Since Miles has been the HC at LSU he is just 7-21 ATS (-16.1 Units) after a 2 game home stand; 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) facing solid rushing teams averaging >=4.75 rushing yards/carry. Take Arkansas. 

15* graded play on Alabama as they host Mississippi State in a huge SEc Conference matchup set to start at 3:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that the Tide will win this game by 13 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 39-13 ATS mark good for 75% winners since 1992. Play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (ALABAMA)  that are off one or more consecutive 'unders' and in a game involving two very good teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more PPG  and after seven or more games have been played in the regular season. 50% of all these plays covered the spread by 7 or more points. The following game situations match my expectations for the outcome of this game. State is just 4-9 ATS the past three seasons and 26-78 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 28 or more points; 0-4 ATS the past three seasons and 8-19 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 35 to 42 points in a game; 2-6 ATS the L3 seasons and 9-36 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 6.5 or more yards per play. Alabama is a solid 5-2 ATS the L3 seasons and 33-11 ATS since 1992 when they scored 35 to 42 points. On the fundamental side, the execution has been far superior in home games than road games for the Tide. This is simply because of fan noise disrupting the sideline audibles and read communications from OC Kiffin. This will not be the case playing at home where the students know they need to be quiet while their offense is on the field. You can bet though when State has the ball, the fans will be in an absolute frenzy. Alabama in a blowout win. 

15* graded play on Kansas as they take on TCU in a BIG-12 Conference matchup. This is simply far too many points and reflects the public's enthusiasm in playing the hot team. The TCU bandwagon has now grown to extreme levels where failure to cover situations run high. The line is currently at 28 1/2 and I see TCU willing his game by 21 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 25-5 ATS mark for 83% winners since 2008. Play against road favorites (TCU) that are excellent offensive teams gaining >=440 YPG) and is now facing an average offensive team gaining between 330 to 390 YPG and after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. 50% of these plays covered the spread by 7 or more points. This fact serves to reinforce by projection that Kansas will keep this a 21 point or less type of game. Take Kansas.

25* graded play on Virginia Tech as they take on Duke in a massive ACC showdown set to start at Noon ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that V-tech can upset Duke and gain a valuable win that will certainly help their bowl game selection. The betting flows are certainly supportive despite the line moving from 6 to 4 1/2 points. The reason is that there has been a very high level of public bets being made on Duke. In fact, more than 76% of these wagers have been on Duke. Normally, we see the line go in the same direction as the irrational exuberance public betting. However, the big player (sharps) are placing large wagers on the Hokies that more than offsets the small public bets and has caused the line to move modestly lower. With the decline, the public will level of interest will grow with the believe that the line still offers a great bargain. Remember, that all of the research, game matchup analyses, wagering flows, and technical trends and systems serve ONLY to reinforce and to bring a form of logic to making this educated play. I have a system from the database that features an important game situation and the criteria that is set up for this play. Play on a road team using the money line (VIRGINIA TECH) in a conference matchup that is a solid good passing team gaining between 230 and 275 passing yards per game and is now facing an average passing defense allowing between 175 and 230 passing yards per game AND after more than seven regular season games have been completed. What is most impressive with this money line system is that it was made 62 units/unit wagered averaging a +145 DOG play since 2008. V-tech will be successful running the ball and I expect them to get 150 rushing yards. V-Tech has been a great money earner going 12-4 against the money line in road games when they rush for 3.5 to 4 yards per attempt since 1992. So, the combination of a solid ground attack will open up play action for vertical routes that will be in man or bracket coverages. Take Virginia Tech.

25* graded play on Southern Cal as they take on California in Pac-12 Conference action set to start at 9:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that USC will win this game by 17 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 25-4 ATS for 86% winners since 1992. Play against road underdogs (CALIFORNIA) that is an excellent offensive team gaining >=6.2 YPP and is now facing an average defense allowing between 4.8 to 5.6 YPP and after 7+ games, and after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last two games. 68% of these plays covered the spread by seven or more points. Cal is a horrid defensive team while USC sports one of the best defensive units in the nation. Cal ranks 125th in scoring defense allowing 43 PPG, 128th allowing 554 yards per game, 111th with a 0.492 points -per-play ratio, and 128th allowing 401 passing yards per game. The USC defense ranks 24th in scoring defense, 18th with a 0.286 points-per-play ratio, and 16th allowing just 33% of opponent third down conversions. Cal has a strong offense, but only marginally better than the USC unit. The vast difference is between the defenses. Further, CAL has not faced a defensive unit as fast, quick, and athletic as USC has become this season. CAL is an imperfect  0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) against teams with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better over the last 3 seasons. USC is a near-perfect 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) vs. terrible defensive teams who give up 37 or more points/game since 1992. Take Southern California.

15* graded play on Kent State as they take on Bowling Green in MAC Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. I also like a 5* play on the first-half line that I will review later in the report. The simulator shows a high probability that KS will lose this game by fewer than 13 points. Given the public betting flows that are reaching irrational exuberance levels on BG I expect this line to climb higher possibly getting to 14 1/2. So, wait and see what happens. I don't expect significant sharp action to take place on a MAC game, but it will not come till late this afternoon if at all. It's not that I expect we will need the extra points, but it never hurts to shop the line and get the best available, especially when there is confidence the line will move in our favor. It is rare that I ever suggest a first half play, but I strongly believe there is an added opportunity tonight. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 39-13 ATS for 75% winners since 2003. Play on road underdogs of 6 to 11.5 points using the first half line (KENT ST) in a game involving two poor defensive teams allowing between 28 and 34 PPG. Kent State may be the doormat in the MAC this season, but they are continuing to play hard and compete for the full game. Their passing defense has improved while BG's offensive pass attack has all but disappeared. BG was lighting up the scoreboard with a strong passing attack, but over the last three weeks it has dropped off a cliff. They gained 260 yards on 20-for-39 passing at Ohio University three weeks ago. Gained just 139 yards on 20-for-33 passing in a loss at home to Western Michigan. Just last week gained only 170 passing yards on 17-for-34 passing in a 27-10 win at Akron.  I expect the KS secondary to play well and make it difficult for BG to move the chains tonight. Take Kent State. 

25* graded play on the Carolina Panthers as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in an NFC Conference matchup set to start at 8:30 PM ET. If you look at the 'flash' stats, you immediately think this line is far too small given how well the scoreboard has read for the Eagles this season. However, when you tear deep into the matchups there readily appears the idea that this line is inflated. The media outlets are continue to focus on the stellar play of QB Sanchez last week after taking over QB duties for an injured Foles. He had a tremendous preseason, but let's be honest that was preseason and he now must face a desperate Carolina team that needs a win to stay in playoff contention. The Panther’s defense will be looking to disrupt Sanchez and make his first start as an Eagle a difficult one. They are a solid group that can bring pressure from anywhere. I see a huge advantage in collapsing the pocket with pressure up the middle, which will not allow Sanchez the area to step up and throw. This is nearly the same matchup I saw in our 25* Jets win over the Steelers. Defensive end Charles Johnson will lead the way in the QB pressure department. After a slow start to the season, Johnson has picked up his play as of late, earning solid pass rush grades and seven quarterback hurries in his last three games. Second year defensive tackle Kawann Short has also been solid rushing the passer in 2014. Short has accumulated 15 total pressures and a +8.3 pass rush grade this season. Knocking Sanchez off his rhythm and as a result he Eagle receiver routes will be a key factor in a potential Carolina victory. Keep an eye on Luke Kuechly as well. He leads all ILB in the NFL with 75 tackles and 3 passes defended, and 22 stops against the run. The Panthers have arguably the best safety in the league in Thomas Decoud, who ranks best in several categories including overage snaps per reception. For the first time in a long time, the Panthers have both Williams and Stewart in the backfield for tonight' s game. This duo combined with the extreme mobility and size of Newtown is going to be a big problem for the Eagles defense. The loss of LB Ryans is so huge that not even a platoon of LB will be able to recreate his intensive and disciplined play. You can be assured the Panthers will exploit this are of the field and target Ryan's replacement. however, they can also choose to use that Eagle weakness as a decoy and use formations that given the look going after that area, but instead using play action to connect with 6-5 240 pound Benjamin on the perimeter and in the slot. The Eagles corners will be overwhelmed by his size, speed, quickness, and hand strength. So far, my writeup looks like a 42-0 Carolina win, but the point is that even if this game becomes high scoring, Carolina has the matchups to compete in that high tempo style of game. The Eagles have a solid matchup with Maclin going up against average at-best corners in Norman and Cason. The pass routes will be shorter and will feature more slants, which is what Sanchez is great at delivering. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 33-11 ATS mark for 75% winners since 2008.  Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CAROLINA) after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games. Of the many projections showing that Craolina will cover easily is that they will gain 6.0 to 6.5 net passing yards per attempt. In past games, the Panthers are 2-0 ATS this season, 4-0 ATS the past three seasons, and 24-9 ATS since 1992 when they have gained between 6.0 and 6.5 net passing yards. Carolina is a solid 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half since 1992. Take the Panthers. 

25* graded play on the Oakland Raiders as they take on the Denver Broncos in AFC West action set to start at 4:05 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Oakland will lose this game by fewer than 12 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 24-5 ATS mark for 83% winners since 1983. Play on underdogs of 10.5 or more points (OAKLAND) after seven or more consecutive losses and the current game taking place in the second half of the season. 48% of these plays covered the spread by 7 or more points. Over the past three seasons, it has gone a perfect 5-0 ATS. Interesting too, is the fact that Denver is just 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when facing terrible teams getting outscored by 10+ points per game on the season in the second half of the season since 1992. On ematchup to watch is the great play of OLB Khalil Mack going up against Denver's LT Ryan Clady, who missed 2013 season and is still struggling to get the rust off. He gave only his first sack last week in the Patriots loss, but he has been awful in run blocking. Mack ranks best in the NFL by a wide margin in run stop and I strongly believe Clady will need double team help against him in blitz situations. Even for a Manning led team, it will be very difficult for the Broncos to be taking the Raiders as a serious opponent and may have a drastic letdown from the humiliating defeat last week in Foxborough. Take the Raiders. 

15* graded play on the New York Jets as they host the Pittsburgh Steelers in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that the Jets will lose this game by fewer than 3 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 48-20 mark for 71% winners since 1983. Play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season (NY JETS) after failing to cover the spread in two out of their last three games and is a terrible team winning

15* graded play on Jacksonville as they take on the Dallas Cowboys in Wembley Stadium, London, set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Jacksonville will lose this game by fewer than 7 points. Dallas has a great ground attack led by Murray, but I fully expect the Jacksonville defense led by LB Geno Hayes, to contain Dallas. Hayes ranks best in the NFL in run stop of the 22 qualifying OLB in the NFL. Further, he has not missed a tackle on the season. On the other side of the ball, I look for JAX RB Denard Robinson to have a big day and take pressure off of QB Bortles to try and make plays and sustain drives. Dallas is just 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) when facing struggling passing defenses allowing seven or more passing yards/attempt in games played in the second half of the season over the last three seasons; 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) when facing struggling defensive teams allowing >=5.65 yards/play in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. HC Garrett is  0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after having won five or six out of their last seven games as the coach of Dallas. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 24-5 ATS mark for 83% winners since 1983. Play against any team (DALLAS) off two or more consecutive upset losses installed as a favorite and is a good team winning between 60% to 75% of their games and now playing a team with a losing record in the second half of the season. Take JAX.

15* graded play on Tampa Bay as they host Atlanta in NFC Conference action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that TB will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making this a combination wager using an 11* play on the line and a 4* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 58-21 mark using the money line for 74% winners and has made 32 units/unit wagered since 1983. Play against road teams using the money line (ATLANTA) after failing to cover the spread in four out of their last five games and is a struggling team winning between 25% to 40% of their games and is now playing a team with a losing record in the second half of the season. Over the past three seasons, this ML system has gone 8-1 ATS for 89% winners. Further, the Falcons are a shocking 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) when facing terrible passing defenses allowing a completion percentage of 64% or worse over the last three seasons. Take Tampa Bay. 

25* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they take on the New Orleans Saints in a very important matchup for both teams that is set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the 49ers will lose this game by fewer than four points and has a great shot at winning on the road in New Orleans. I suggest making this a combination wager consisting of a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. It will be the 49er defensive unit that will rise up and dominate this game. They are a vastly under rated group, but one that is fully capable to getting the job done against the fifth best scoring offense in the NFL. 49ers rank second allowing 292 offensive yards per game and third allowing 6.1 yards-per-pass play. Keep an eye on rookie ILB Borland, who is playing at an All-Pro level for the 49ers defense. He will responsible for getting RB Ingram down in space and I believe he will get the job done. This is critical to monitor as Ingram has forced an NFL-best 15 missed tackles since coming back from injury in Week 7. Another rookie OLB, Aaron Lynch, is playing great too. He has the second most QB pressures among rookie 3-4 OLB. He will pass rush from the left side and Brees must be aware of his presence. I expect SF to score between 22 and 28 points. In past games, they are 11-2 ATS when scoring within that range in games played over the past three seasons. Last, SF is a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when facing passing defenses allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt over the last three seasons. Take San Francisco. 

25* graded play on Ohio State as they take on Michigan State in BIG Ten Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that OSU will win this game. I like making this a combination wager using a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. This ratio of ML/Line serves to maximize the total rate of return of the game expectations and probabilities. This marks only the third time under HC Meyer that OSU is installed as a dog and the first time since November 7, 2012. They were installed as 2 point dogs at Wisconsin and won 21-14 in OT and won at Michigan State 17-16 installed as 2 1/2 point dogs. MSU is excellent on both sides of the ball. Spartans are averaging the fifth-most points (45.5) and the ninth-most yards per game (515.2) in the FBS. However, OSU brings a secondary that can eliminate the Spartans vertical routes. OSU has allowed the fewest plays (17) of 20 yards or more in the nation this season.  Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 80-39 ATS mark for 67% winners since 2008. Play on a road team (OHIO ST) after covering the spread in six or seven out of their last eight games and with a winning record on the season. Here is a second system that has gone 35-12 ATS for 75% winners since 2003. Play against home favorites (MICHIGAN ST) after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games and is now facing an opponent after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half. 56% of these plays covered the spread by 7 or more points and serves to reinforce my belief that OSU will win this game. Again, Meyer has been a great coach, especially when installed as a DOG. He is 26-8 ATS (+17.2 Units) after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games in all games he has coached since 1992 and 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) as an underdog in all games he has coached since 1992. I believe the OSU defense is a better defense than the Spartans and one that MSU has not faced in terms of speed, athleticism, and gap discipline this season. From the start of the game, look for OSU defensive front to get penetration and push the MSU offensive line off of the LOS. The OSU defensive front is excellent at securing blockers and not allowing them to get to the second level allowing LB to fill gaps and make stops for minimal gains. Also, if OSU gets penetration with only the down lineman and does not need to bring blitz pressure, it all but eliminates play action and the vertical MSU passing attack. Take Ohio State. 

25* graded play on Alabama as they take on LSU in 'Death Valley' at night starting at 8:00 PM ET. I mention this fact only to illustrate the reason why Alabama is favored on the road in this difficult venue - arguably the toughest in football. I also believe that LSU has had their share of some emotional wins and last week's late 4th quarter win over Mississippi is certainly one of them that enters into LSU folklore. No doubt this is the best opponent that LSU will face yet this season and one that is better on both sides of the ball.  The simulator shows a high probability that Alabama will win this game by 10 or more points. LSU ranks 17th in the nation with a 0.273 points-per-play ratio. But, Alabama ranks 2nd with a 0.216 points-per-play ratio. On offense Alabama ranks 20th with a 0.492 points-per-play ratio while LSU is 37th posting a 0.419 ratio. Lsu ranks 68th gaining 393 offensive yards per game while Alabama ranks 10th gaining 505 offensive yards per game. The most important stat is third down conversion where LSU ranks 99th converting 35.2% of those situations and Alabama ranking 2nd converting 55%. I see the Alabama defense putting LSU in difficult third down situations and more that happens, the greater the margin that Alabama will win by. I know the history of night games and how frenzied the stadium fans will be for this contest, but Alabama just has too many weapons on both sides of the ball for LSU to overcome. Even the fourth down magic and trick plays from HC Miles will not be enough. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 41-10 ATS mark for 81% winners since 2003. Play against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (LSU) off two straight wins against conference rivals and now facing an opponent off a double digit road win. Alabama is expected to score at least 28 points. LSU is a miserable 0-2 ATS this season, 0-4 ATS the past three seasons and 11-53 ATS since 1992 when allowing 28 or more points. Take Alabama. 

15* graded play on Texas as they host West Virginia in a Big-12 matchup set to start at 3:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Texas will lose this game by fewer than 3 points and has a great shot at getting a much needed home win. Unless the line moves to 3.5 points, I don't see any reason to place a combination wager using the money line and line for this DOG. The risk/reward and DOG ML just don't provide enough return on investment to be valid. The following game situations match the projections for the game. WVU is just  1-6 against the money line (-7.3 Units) when their defense forces 2 turnovers over the last 2 seasons; 13-21 against the money line (-15.3 Units) when they gain 5 to 5.5 total yards per play since 1992; Texas is a solid  26-11 against the money line (+15.1 Units) when they rush for 150 to 200 yards since 1992;  6-2 against the money line (+7.6 Units) when they commit 2 turnovers over the last 2 seasons; 27-9 against the money line (+16.6 Units) when they force and commit the same number of turnovers since 1992. Take Texas.

25 * graded play on Syracuse as they take on Duke in a ACC Conference action set to start at 12:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Syracuse will win this game. Given this favorable projection, I suggest making this a combination wager comprised of a 21* play using the line and a 4* amount using the money line. This combination or ratio of Ml and Line amounts maximizes the total rate of return of this opportunity based on the game projections. Duke is on a 3-game winning streak, but were outgained in each of those wins by a minimum of 100 yards. Duke has risen to No. 22 in the national polls thanks in large part to their great focused attention to detail. They don't make mistakes either by penalty, turnovers, or allowing sacks. However, teams like Duke can't always rely on mistake-free football to win games continuously. The matchup I really like is the Syracuse defense against the Duke ground attack. Duke ranks 13th gaining 5.7 YPR and 38th at 203 YPG. Syracuse defense ranks 16th allowing just 3.3 YPR and 23rd allowing 123 yards per game. Stopping the ground attack and forcing Duke into more passing downs is a great game plan to defeat them. Duke has no deep vertical threat as evidenced by their 5.5 yards-per-pass that ranks 122nd in the nation. Syracuse will put complete pressure at the LOS and use mostly cover-1 on early downs. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 31-8 ATS mark for 80% winners since 2003. Play against road favorites (DUKE) that is an excellent offensive team scoring >=34 PPG and is now facing an average defensive team allowing between 21 and 28 PPG and after a win by six or less points. 50% of these plays covered the spread by 7 or more points. I also see Syracuse scoring 28 or more points. In past games where they have scored 28+ points they are 12-2 ATS over the L3 seasons; 2-0 ATS this season, and 90-23 since 1996. Duke is a money burning 5-10 ATS L3 seasons when allowing 28 or more points. Take Syracuse. 

15* graded play on Oklahoma as they take on Baylor in BIG-12 Conference action set to start at Noon ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Oklahoma will win this game by 10 or more points. Baylor has the most touchdown drives of 1 minute or less (17) and is tied for most touchdown drives of 2 minutes or less (28) this season. The Bears have more 2-minute touchdown drives than 51 FBS teams have total touchdown drives. Here again, is the superior coaching and prepartion they provide in big conference showdowns. Bob Stoops is 16-3 at home against ranked opponents in his career. Among coaches with at least 10 such games, no active coach has a better winning percentage than Stoops. Stoops is a solid Stoops is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in home games after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game; 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse; 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 34-9 ATS mark for 79% winners since 1992. Play on home favorites (OKLAHOMA) in a game involving two dominant teams (outgain opponents by 1.2+ YPP) and after gaining 525 or more total yards in two consecutive games. 56% of these plays covered the spread by 7+ points. Take the Sooners.

15* graded play on Georgia as they take on Kentucky in SEC action set to start at Noon ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Georgia will win this game by 14 or more points. They had a horrid game last week in their loss to Florida and I fully expect them to bounce back with a great effort today. They are still in the hunt to with the East Division and make it to the SEC Championship game and they need impressive efforts to impress the playoff committee to rise back in the rankings. Georgia is a solid 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in a road game where the total is between 49.5 and 56 since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 46-20 ATS mark for 64% winners since 2008. Play on any team (GEORGIA) that is an excellent rushing team gaining >=4.8 YPR and is now facing a team with a struggling rushing defense allowing between 4.3 to 4.8 YPR and after allowing 275 or more rushing yards last game. Take Georgia. 

15* graded play on Wyoming as they take on Utah State in Mountain West Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Wyoming will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great shot at securing a big home win. Given this favorable situation, I suggest making a combination wager comprised of a 12* play using the line and a 3* amount using the money line. I believe you will be able to secure a +250 money line figure for this opportunity. Never hurts to work the order and get the best possible money line. I do see a modest chance that the line could shift to 8, which in turn would make the money line closer to the +260 level. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 31-5 mark for 86% winners and has made 27 units/unit wagered over the past 10 seasons. Play on a home team using the money line (WYOMING) off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival and with eight defensive starters returning. Granted, there are injuries to these defensive units in any given season. Yet, when a team starts with this many returning starters they are able to recover more quickly when an injury does occur. Wyoming is also a solid 24-7 ATS (+16.3 Units) after outgaining opponent by 175 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992. Wyoming team also knows that this is essentially a bowl game meaning if they win this game, they then have a weak New Mexico team on the road in the season finale, that would make them 6 win bowl eligible. They also face the 6-e Boise State Broncos next week at home and is also a game they will be home dogs, but a game that do have the potential to win as well. Path is much easier with a win tonight. Take Wyoming. 

15* graded play on the Cleveland Browns as they take on the Cincinnati Bengals in NFL Thursday NIght action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Cleveland will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection, I suggest adding a 2.5* play using he money line in addition to the 15* play using the line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 22-6 mark for 79% winners and has averaged a +135 DOG play making 23 units/unit wagered since 2008. Play against home teams using the money line (CINCINNATI) after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games and with the current game occurring in weeks 10 through 13 of the NFL season. Here is a second money line system that has gone 22-9 for 71% winners using the money and has averaged a +150 DOG play over the past 10 seasons.  Play on any team using the money line (CLEVELAND) after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in two straight games against opponent after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game. Much has been made about the absence of the Browns ground game in recent weeks that was so dominant in the first several games of the season. I highly expect to see the Browns ground attack back in full force. Note that  the Browns are a solid 10-4 against the money line (+19.0 Units) in road games after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in two straight games since 1992. Moreover, HC Lewis is just Lewis is 2-11 against the money line (-10.2 Units) in home games when facing excellent passing teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/attempt as the Bengals. Cincy won against JAX last week, but their were numerous matchups where the Jaguars did quite well and ones that i see Cleveland doing even better. Bengals defense is highly suspect and ranks 30th in the NFL allowing 395 yards-per-game. Bengals can't stop the run ranking 30th allowing 140 yards-per-game. I feel confident that the Browns ground game will be strong and in turn opens up play action for Hoyer to utilize and will have more ample time to scan the entire field and make high percentage passes. Browns defense is solid and getting better. They rank 8th in scoring defense allowing 21.1 PPG and 6th in a very reliable and meaningful opponent points per play ratio at 0.307. I am well aware of the trends showing how strong Bengals are at home and how the Browns have been big money burners in road tilts, but this is a much different  and unique situation. I can fully offset those trends by simply stating the fact that Hoyer is 5-1 ATS as a road under dog in game splayed over the past three seasons. Take the Browns. 

25* graded play on the New York Jets as they take to the road to play the Kansas City Chiefs in AFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that the Jets will lose this game by fewer than 7 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 30-8 ATS mark for 79% winners since 1983. Play on road underdogs or pick (NY JETS) after 6 or more consecutive losses in November games. This simple money making system has gone 7-1 ATS for 88% winners over the past three seasons. Here is a second system that has gone 35=10 ATS for 78% winners since 2003. Play on road teams (NY JETS) after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games and is a struggling team winning 25% or less of their games on the season. This system has gone 15-2 ATS over the past three seasons for 88% winers. The Chiefs have an solid secondary, but have struggled against the run this season. The Jets with Vick under center now bring two valid weapons for KC run defense to stop. RB Ivory has been quietly one of the best RB in the NFL. In his 113 touches this season, he ranks fifth in elusive rating and has produced a 4.7 YPR despite one of the worst run blocking OL in the NFL. Vick still is a duel threat and has two solid weapons to look to in Wilkerson and Cumberland. The latter, I believe will be quite effective in slot routes where easy reads can lead to high percentage short pass plays or in man coverage against a linebacker can lead to excellent opportunities in the vertical game down the seems. I fully expect the Kets to have a significant lead in TOP. This is critical fort the Jets to compete well enough to have the game decided in the fourth quarter. Jets are quite vulnerable at corner with converted safety Allen now considered the veteran of the group. Chiefs have the NFL sack leader in Houston (10), but given the sold ground game and Vick's elusiveness, I don't believe he will be a dominating factor going up against RT Giacomini. Last, Vick took all of the reps with the first team this week and that is more than enough time for the entire unit to adjust to a left-handed throwing QB. Take the Jets.

25* graded play on the Houston Texans as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that the Texans will win this game. Lets' look at the technicals first. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 33-18 ATS mark for 65% winners and has made 25 units/unit wagered since 1983. Play against road favorites using the money line (PHILADELPHIA) and is a solid team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) and is now facing an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential) and after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games. Situationally, Houston is a solid 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992. I see Houston scoring points and within the 22 to 28 point range. In past games, the Eagles have been a money burning 3-10 ATS L3 seasons and 26-50 ATS since 1992 when allowing 22 to 28 points in a game. Eagles will get their share of offensive yards with a projection between 350 and 400 total. However, Houston has done very well in these types of games sporting a perfect 5-0 ATS record over the last three seasons. The Harvard grad QB Fitzpatrick has done very well in these types of matchups. He is 12-6 in games lined between pick-em and +3 and is 6-2 ATS against elite teams winning between 66 and 76% of their games. JJ Watt is always a matchup problem for any opposition and must have all offensive coordinators with more sleepless nights than usual. This week the Eagles come in with a banged up offensive line. Watt should get to a significant amount of time against banged up right guard Todd Herremans and left guard Evan Mathis’s backup Matt Tobin. Both Herremans and Tobin have each graded out negatively against the run and even lower in pass blocking so far this season. Watt continues to be a pass rushing machine as his +41.7 pass rushing grade more than triples 2nd ranked Jason Hatcher’s grade. On the other side of the ball Fitzpatrick is flying under the radar and ranks second best in deep pass completion percentage. This will certainly expose the weak and highly suspect corners, especially Williams. Take the Texans. 

50* graded play on UCLA as they take on Arizona in PAC-12 action set to start at 10:30 PM ET.   The simulator shows a high probability that UCLA will win this game by 10 or more points. The Bruins (6-2, 3-2) haven't lost three in a row at home since going 0-5 at the Coliseum in 1971. They moved their home games to Pasadena permanently in 1982. They are in fifth place, but one game out of first and can leapfrog one of the teams they are chasing in Arizona with a win tonight. UCLA dropped five straight in this series before Hundley joined the program two years ago. He has thrown for 515 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions with a 77.4 completion percentage in two consecutive wins over the Wildcats. He is also leading all FBS QB with a 76.8% completion percentage on first downs. Further, he gets a ton of time in the pocket due the strong ground attack that ranks a PAC-12 high 4.5 yards per rush between the tackles. They can also spread the field and open up the middle for both the ground attack and play action with high percentage opportunities over the middle of the field. Then you add the fact that Hundley is the PAC-12 leading rushing QB with 415 rushing yards and you can readily see how difficult, if not impossible, it will be for Arizona to keep them contained. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 38-13 ATS mark for 75% winners since 1992. Play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in conference tilts (ARIZONA) in a game involving two explosive offensive teams scoring >=34 PPG. 55% of these games covered the spread by 7 or more points. The following game situations match the projections I have for this game. UCLA is a solid 9-2 ATS L3 seasons when they have gained 6.5 or more yards per play. Arizona is just 4-14 ATS when allowing 28 or more points L3 seasons and 0-4 ATS when allowing 450 to 500 total offensive yards L3 seasons. Take Arizona. 

15* graded play on Oklahoma State as they take on Kansas State in Big-12 Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. Given this huge five-pack of 15* Titans, I am providing just a brief for each game highlighting the ket technicals and game situations for each play.  The simulator shows a high probability that Ok State will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 29-7 ATS mark for 81% winners since 1992. 53% of these plays covered the spread by 7 or more points.  Play against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (KANSAS ST) after allowing 9 points or less last game and is now facing an opponent after 2 straight losses by 17 or more points. Take the Cowboys from Oklahoma State. 

15* graded play on the Navy as they take on Notre Dame in NCAAF action set to start at 8:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Navy will lose this game by fewer than 13 points. Notre Dame last played two weeks ago in their very emotonal loss to FSU in a game they dominated in the first half and then let get away from them in the second half. The way the game ended as well is an 'event' that is very close to the emotional overtime loss that College teams endure. Further, Navy runs a very complex ground attack and I have to admit, I don't see Notre Dame being fully prepared for this game. In their history they have essentially never done well against strong ground attacks. In fact, they are just 5-24 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed an opponent 200 to 250 rushing yards in a game. Take the Navy Midshipmen

15* graded play on the Stanford Cardinal as they take on the Oregon Ducks in PAC-12 conference action set to start at 7:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Stanford will lose this game by fewer than 7 points.  Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 24-2 ATS mark for an incredible 92.3% winners since 2008. Play on any team (STANFORD) average rushing team gaining between 3.5 to 4.3 YPR and is now facing a poor rushing defense allowing between 4.3 to 4.8 YPR; after 7+ games and after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. 73% of these games covered the spread by 7 or more points and this underscores my strong belief that Stanford can win this game. I like using a combination wager comprised of a 11* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line on Stanford. 

25* graded play on Arkansas as they take on NO.1-ranked Mississippi State in SEC action set to start at 7:15 PM ET and will be televised on ESPN2/Watch ESPN.  I also like adding a 3* amount using the Money Line for a total risk of 28* units. The simulator shows a high probability that Arkansas will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. It is hard to actually see Arkansas winning this game, but many of you know that about once a year I have had a 17+ DOG win outright. I always remember when Tebow lost to Mississippi 31-30  at home in the Swamp and were installed as 24 point dogs September 27, 2008. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a losing record of 27-51 for just 35% winners, BUT has made a whopping 77 units/unit wagered since 1992. It has averaged a remarkable +475 DOG play. I am seeing +350 right now for the Razorbacks. Play on road underdogs of +315 or higher using the money line (ARKANSAS) after leading in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half and is now facing an opponent after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games.  Here is a second system that has gone 107-35 for 75% winners since 2003 and averaged a +105 DOG play. Although the average line of this system does not equal the line for this specific game, there have been a significant number of games wagered that were in the +300 and higher levels. Play against a home team using the money line (MISSISSIPPI ST) after allowing 475 or more total yards/game in their last three games and is now facing an opponent after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game. Arkansas is expected to average 7.0 to 7.5 net passing yards per attempt. Not good news for State as they are a horrid 2-10 against the money line (-9.8 Units) when they allow 7 to 7.5 net passing yards/attempt since 1992. I relied on the example of one of my biggest upsets I have ever enjoyed, but it also points to how incredibly DEEP the SEC Conference is this season. Arkansas has not won a conference game in quite a long time and are 4-4 on the season with all four losses occurring against SEC foes. They now take to the road to face not only an SEC team, but the NO. 1 ranked team in the nation and yet are installed as barely double digit dogs. Take Arkansas. 

15* graded play on the Florida Gators as they take on Georgia in SEC Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that the Gators will lose this game by fewer than 13 points. Georgia is off a hard fought 45-32 win at Arkansas. However, I don't expect much positive momentum coming from that game as HC Richt is just 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) off a double digit road win as the coach of Georgia. Further, Georgia is just 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) off a double digit road win since 1992. Florida has been a money making 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992; 34-17 ATS (+15.3 Units) after a 2 game home stand since 1992. Take the Gators.

15* graded play on Virginia as they take on Georgia Tech on an ACC Conference matchup set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that UVA will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 34-11 ATS mark for 76% winners since 2003. Play against home favorites (GEORGIA TECH) in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.6 YPP) after 7+ games and after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game. 50% of these games covered the spread by 7 or more points and serves to reinforce my strong view that UVA wins this game. I strongly believe that UVA will score at least 28 points and are 3-0 ATS this season when achieving that level and 7-3 ATS over the past three seasons. Georgia Tech is just 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home games after gaining 475 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games since 1992; 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 3 straight games since 1992. Take Virginia.

25* graded play on the Temple Owls as they take on the East Carolina Pirates in American Athletic Conference action set to start at Noon ET.   The simulator shows a high probability that Temple will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great shot at winning the game. I like playing this as a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 23-4 ATS mark for 85% winners since 2008 and is 12-2 ATS over the past three seasons. Play against road favorites (E CAROLINA) that are excellent offensive team gaining >=440 YPG and is now facing a solid offensive team gaining between 330 to 390 YPG and after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. What I like most in this game is Temple has a vastly under rated passing defense. Overall, they rank 33rd allowing 22.8 PPG and 24th in a far more meaningful points-per-play stat of 0.290. ECU is off a 31-21 home win over cellar dweller UCONN and failed to cover as 28 points favorites. In fact, they were tied in the early part of the 4th at 21 points. They had just 1 turnover and are a money burning 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons. Temple has been nailed by the turnover bug and as their HC coach said in press statements,'just have not played their brand of football'. He also challenged his team this week stating that this is the last top-25 ranked team they will play and that this is a pivotal time'. I have a high level of confidence that Temple will look to win this game and not just show up and attempt to compete with the ranked Pirates. Further, their QB P.J. Walker, who has tossed five picks in the last two games, has learned the hard way that there are times to just simply throw the ball away and move on to the next play. Nearly all of his INT have been a result of trying to create big plays. So, this is a great spot for a team coming off two poor efforts, to come out highly motivated to upset a ranked foe on their home turf. Take Temple. 

25* graded play on Tulane as they take on Cincinnati in American Athletic Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET.   The simulator shows a meaningful probability that Tulane will lose this game by fewer than 4 points and has a great opportunity at winning this game. An alternative wager is place a 19* play on the line and a 6* play using he money line. Tulane has enjoyed the month of October and have a very nice 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in October games spanning the last three seasons. Conversely, Cincy HC Tuberville is a money burning 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) after allowing 100 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games in all games he has coached since 1992. On the injury front, what I really like is the return of Tulane QB Tanner Lee from a shoulder injury and RB Sherman Badie from a ankle strain. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 23-4 ATS mark for 85% winners since 2003. Play on any team (TULANE)that is an average rushing team (+/- 40 RY/G) and is now facing a team who is outrushed by 50+ YPG after 7+ games fo the current season and after allowing 100 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. This system has gone 11-0 ATS over the past five seasons. Further, my research and SIM prohjections make very confident that Tulane will score at least 28 points. In past games, Tulane is 7-2 ATS when scoring 28 or more points L3 seasons. Cincy is a money burning 2-7 ATS when allowing 28 or more points over the past three seasons. Take Tulane. 

15* graded play on Florida State as they take on Louisville in NCAAF action set to start at 7:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that FSU will win this game by 7 or more points. I also like FSU and the 'over' for a 5* parlay. A more conservative option is play a 15* play on FSU and a 10* play 'over' with no play on the parlay. Much has been said about the manner that FSU has won games and how 'fortunate' they have been to remain undefeated and ranked second in the polls. However, Louisville enters this game unranked and with 2 losses. Further, they have had a weaker SOS than FSU based on the opponents faced. Louisville lost at UVA23-21 and were installed as 4 point road favorites. They also lost at Clemson 23-17 and covered as 9 point road dogs. Louisville ranks very high in the defensive rankings nationally, but again it was done against a far weaker schedule than any SEC ranked team has faced. I mention the SEC as a solid comparison to the athleticism and team speed tat FSU brings to any game they play. In my opinion, FSU has yet to put even 1/2 half of football together at max levels and output. They showed signs of it last week in their 'lucky' win over Notre Dame. FSU was completely dominated in the first half on both sides of the LOS and then made adjustments and completely dominated ND immediately at the start of the second half with near execution perfection on display. What changed at the half, was that Winston significantly cut down the time he held the ball and was getting rid of quickly, in rhythm, and highly accurate. I know Louisville ranks second in scoring defense at 13.7 PPG and best allowing 238 opponent yards per game, and best at just 3.5 YPP allowed, but they have not faced a team like FSU yet this season. Despite, the media attention on FSU being a ranked fraud of sorts, they do rank 12th in the nation with a 0.535 points per play ratio. This is a critical measure of a team's offensive efficiency. This also points out that this ratio also includes the sloppy possessions where the execution is far below average. By deduction then, it magnifies just how incredibly efficient and unstoppable the offense becomes when executing with focus and attention to details. The latter is what I expect to see throughout the entire game. By comparison, Louisville ranks a dismal 89th with a 0.345 PPP ratio and I am confident the FSU defense will do very well in containment and force Louisville to earn their way to the end zone; eliminating the flash vertical score form Louisville's arsenal. Take FSU.

25* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they host the Washington Redskins in an NFC East matchup set to start on MNF at 8:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Dallas will win this game by 13 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 43-17 ATS mark for 72% winners since 1983. Play against underdogs or pick (WASHINGTON) after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games and when playing next game on Monday night. Here is aMonday Night system supporting Dallas and has gone 55-24 ATS for 70% winners since 1983. 50% of these plays have covered the spread by 7+ points.  Play on favorites (DALLAS) off a win against a division rival and when playing on Monday night. The following game situations match the projections from the SIM for this contest. Washington is an imperfect 0-6 ATS L3 seasons when they commit 2 or more turnovers. At the beginning fo the season, this game would have been lined somewhere at Dallas by 6, but given how well they have played and how Washington has struggled amid injuries and just poor management, the line is now 10 points. Derspite, the fact that this is two teams heading in opposite directions, the line does not yet reflect just how good Dallas has become in recent weeks. Further, Eagles lost and now with a win, Dallas can take full control fo the Division knowing they have Eagles coming up on Thanksgiving. Washington now has McCoy under center and the last time McCoy started an NFL game was Week 11 of 2011 with the Cleveland Browns. Washington will need to estbalish the run early with Moris, but that could be something quite unrealistic in this matchup.  Comeback Player of the Year candidate, linebacker Rolando McClain has resurrected his career in a big way and is currently second-best among ILBs overall and in Run Stop Percentage, tops in the NFL at the position. McClain will have the task to stop HB Alfred Morris and he will have plenty of help from his teammates as well. With seven straight 100-yard games, 43 missed tackles, seven TDs. Murray is having a career year and it’s not all attributed to the work of his OL. He is averaging 2.87 yards per attempt after contact, best in the NFL of any HB with over 100 rushes. Then you add all of the other offensive weapons at Romo's disposal and you can see why Dallas is expected to win this game and cover ATS easily. 

25* graded play on the Pittsburgh Steelers as they take on the Indianapolis Colt sin AFC action set to start at 4:25 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that the Steelers will win this game. Given the dog line I like making this a combination wager using a 19* play on the line and a 6* play using the money line. SIM projects that Steelers will gain between 5.5 and 6.0 yards-per-play and when they done that in previous games they have gone an impressive 9-2 ATS L3 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-6 ATS mark for 82% winners since 1983. Play against road favorites (INDIANAPOLIS) that is an average defensive team allowing between 18 to 23 PPG and is now facing an defensive team allowing between 23 to 27 PPG and after allowing 9 points or less last game. This system has not lost in the past five seasons going a perfect 6-0 ATS. Further, Pittsburgh is a solid  25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) in home games after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992. Steelers are also a solid 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games facing excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game since 1992. The Steelers are playing increasingly better on both sides of the ball. Notable is Jason Worilds 3-game stretch posting 1 sack, four hits, and 11 hurries. The Colts will have their hands full too with coverage of Antonio Brown, who ranks best in the NFL in several gradings in the stats. Moreover, the Steelers OL has records increasingly more positive grades in both run blocking and pass blocking. Steelers dominate both sides of the ball and win. Take the Steelers.

25* graded play on the Baltimore Ravens as they take on the Cincinnati Bengals in AFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Baltimore will win this game by 4 or more points. Baltimore is the second ranked team in the NFL - second behind the Denver Broncos - in my algorithm based projections. Surprising to most, but Baltimore is building positive momentum each passing week and are playing at avery high level on both sides of the ball. The success of quarterback Joe Flacco and the passing game against a Bengals defense that struggled against Andrew Luck in Week 6 will be a dominant factor in this game. Flacco has the sixth-best QB rating (95.55) and fifth best Accuracy Percentage at 77.3% in the NFL. Yet, is has been his ability to find Torrey Smith and Steve Smith downfield that makes him most dangerous, especially against the Bengals suspect secondary. Flacco’s Deep Passing Accuracy of 57.7 ranks second finding the two Smith’s for a combined nine receptions, 333 yards and five touchdowns on deep passes. TE Owen Daniels is out for this game, but his replacement Crokett Gillmore is an exceptional athlete and at 6-6 and 251 pounds provides an ample target for Flacco to connect with on check downs. Not to mention his 4.8 40-yard dash speed that can lead to big plays down the seems in play action. Bengals were hit bad last week losing to the Colts 27-0. They are a money burning 8-25 ATS (-19.5 Units) after a loss by 21 or more points since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 31-8 ATS mark for 80% winners since 2003. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BALTIMORE) after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers and is now facing an opponent after a game where they committed no turnovers. Take Baltimore. 

25* graded play on the Kansas City Chiefs as they take on the St. Louis Rams in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that the Chiefs will win this game by 9 or more points. SIm projects that KC will establish the ground game successfully and average between 4.0 and 4.5 YPA. In past games, they are 7-1 ATS when gaining between 4 and 4.5 YPR spanning the L3 seasons. Rams are coming off an impressive win over Seattle installed as 6 1/2 point dogs winning 28-26. However, Fisher is just 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in road games after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points in all games he has coached. Points-per-play is a very important barometer at this point of the season given the valid sample sizes. In this matchup, KC enjoys very significant advantages on both sides of the ball. Rams rank 31st in the NFL allowing 0.484 PPP and are facing a KC offense ranking 14th posting a 0.366 PPP ratio. On the other side of the ball, the Rams have posted a 0.331 PPP good for a 24th ranking while the KC defense ranks 12th allowing 0.340 PPP. STL defense ranks 31st allowing 29.3 PPG, 28th allowing 4.8 yards-per-rush, 28th allowing 148 rushing yards per game. KC ranks 4th averaging 31 rushing attempts per game and 3rd averaging 141 rushing yards per game. Further, Rams will have trouble stopping KC even on third downs noting that KC ranks second converting 51% of those opportunities. Looking at player personnel, the Rams will have their hands full on offense. OLB Justin Houston has generated 29 pressures, leading all 3-4 OLBs in Pass Rush Productivity while also grading out at in Top-5 against the run. Tamba Hali, on the other side, has 17 pressures of his own, coming in at 16th among 3-4 OLBs with at least 180 snaps. Take Kansas City

50* graded play on Penn State as they take on Ohio State in BIG Ten Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that PSU will lose this game by fewer than 11 points and has a reasonable shot at a major upset win on national TV. Given this favorable projection, I will suggest making this a combination wager consisting of a 21* play on the line and a 4* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 45-14 mark using the money line for 76% winners and has made 32 units/unit wagered. Play against a road team using the money line (OHIO ST) that is an excellent offensive team scoring >=34 PPG and is now facing an excellent defensive team allowing

10* graded play on Alabama as they take on Tennessee in SEC action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. So much nasty talk about OC Kiffin by the UT fans this week with several celebrity type alums apologizing for the outbursts. The fact is that Kiffin's program had the best record and had the team heading in the right direction. The way he left is certainly debatable, but to continue feeding on this toxic historic event doesn't do anyone any good and it certainly makes for an unnecessary team distraction.  The simulator shows a high probability that Alabama will win this game by 20 or more points. Alabama has the best defense in the nation and has played against top-level competition in achieving those stats as well. UT struggles to move the chains ranking 98th in third-down conversions and 115th in offensive yards per game. I believe they will have immense trouble getting the ball into the end zone for TD. Further, UT is just 4-19 ATS (-16.9 Units) in home games when facing strong defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game since 1992;  2-19 ATS (-18.9 Units) in home games facing excellent defensive teams allowing

15* graded play on Florida Atlantic as they take on Marshall in Conference-USA action set to start at 3:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that FAU will lose this game by fewer than 27 points. Here are some supporting game situations. FAU is a solid  6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons; 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored since 1992. Marshall is undefeated, but their strength of schedule is very, very weak. If they played the schedule that FAU has faced, there is no way that Marshall would still be undefeated. FAU is now seasoned and experienced against some of the elite programs in Nebraska and Alabama. That experience simply minimizes the athleticism that Marshall has at their skill positions. I see this as a 14 to 20 point game and would not be surprised to see this game close at the half. Take Florida Atlantic. 

25* graded play on the Michigan as they take on Michigan State in a huge rivalry in the Big Ten Conference set to start at 3:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Michigan will lose this game by fewer than 15 points. Of note is the fact that Michigan HC Hoke is 15-2 ATS (+12.8 Units) in road games after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game in all games he has coached. To date, Michigan has played vastly stronger opposition and I believe this can help significantly in their matchup against MSU. The Spartans defense is quite good and rank high in the top-10 nationally in several key categories. Michigan State has made first contact at or behind the line of scrimmage on 54% of opponents' rushes, the highest percentage for any Power 5 defense. Further, Michigan State is averaging 12.6 total pressures (QB knock downed or hurried) per game this season, second-most among Power 5 schools. Last season the Spartans recorded 17 against Michigan, including seven sacks, the Wolverines' most in any game in the last three seasons. So, the history lesson tells us how good the Spartans defense has been, but this is a rivalry game and Michigan will play far better than last year's humiliation. Revenge is an overused and misunderstood term in sports, but in this case, revenge is  certainly a major factor that will support Michigan. The Wolverine defense is very good in their own right ands rank 7th nationally allowing 301 yards-per-game, 6th allowing 2.7 yards-per-rush; 4th allowing just 93 rushing yards per game. MSU ranks first in the nation in scoring, but I strongly believe that Michigan has the defensive personnel to matchup well and make it difficult for MSU to light up the scoreboard. Take Michigan and the Points. 

15* graded play on Rutgers as they take on Nebraska in Big Ten Conference action set to start at Noon ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Rutgers will lose this game by fewer than 17 points. Nebraska is the better team and you get no argument from me on that fact. However, the line is just vastly inflated and based on the matchups, is more of 13/14 point Nebraska win. Rutgers is a talented squad and have the ability to run a balanced offensive attack and move the chains and will score points. Nebraska will run the ball close to 50 times in this game, but it will not be as easy as past games have been. Rutgers was simply intimidated last week playing at Ohio State and the sell-out massive stadium and the noise levels they generate. Lincoln is no bargain either, but it not nearly the hostile environment that Ohio State was for Rutgers. The matchups point to a much closer and much more competitive game then the line reflects. Take Rutgers. 

15* graded play on the Texas Longhorns as they take on Kansas State in Big-12 Conference action set to start at Noon ET. Texas HC Strong is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) as a road underdog in all games he has coached;  10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) in road games after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games; 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in road games when playing against a top-level team winning > 75% of their games; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when facing excellent offensive teams averaging >=6.25 yards/play. The simulator shows a high probability that Texas will lose this game by 7 or fewer points. This also good be an upset as well noting that Texas is 7-1 against the money line (+9.6 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. The Texas pass defense ranks 8th best in the nation allowing only 5.6 yards-per-pass attempt. I strongly believe they match up very well against a K-State team that likes to throw the ball more than run. K-State ranks 10th in the nation averaging 8.9 YPPA, but will struggle against the Texas secondary today. Take the Longhorns. 

25* graded play on Troy as they take on South Alabama in Sun Belt Conference action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Troy will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. Troy is coming off arguably one of the worst losses in school history. They lost to Appalachian State 53-14 and were installed as 7 1/2 point favorites. Now, they play on a national TV audience ESPNU and I strongly believe they will play extremely well tonight. Despite winning just one game this season, Troy does have a remarkable track record in rebound type games. They are a perfect  6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after allowing 42 points or more last game in games played over the last three seasons. Troy runs a well balanced offensive attack and this style of play is a major problem for the SA defensive unit that is quite good against the run. I strongly believe that Troy will get the ground game going and then you will see a very good freshman QB in Brandon Silvers use play action to complete high percentage passes and keep the chains moving. He has completed 69% of his passes on the season and thank ranks very high in the national rankings both as a player and as team. Further, he has completed 43-60 passes (72%) for 367 yards and 6.12 yards-per-pass attempt. Take Troy.

50* graded play on the Pittsburgh Steelers as they host the Houston Texans in a Monday Night Tilt set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Pittsburgh will win this game by more than 5 points. Let's first look at the supporting cast of technical data. The following game situations match the projections form the SIM. Houston is just 2-9 ATS the past three seasons and 12-38 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 22 to 28 points; 0-3 ATS the past three seasons, 6-19 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 400 to 450 total yards; 2-7 ATS L3 seasons and 11-33 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 400+ offensive yards. Pittsburgh is a solid 6-1 ATS L3 seasons when gaining 250 to 300 net passing yards. The following are historical situationas that support Pittsburgh. Houston is just  1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) facing defensive teams allowing >=5.65 yards/play over the last 2 seasons; Pittsburgh is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) when facing excellent passing teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards-per-attempt since 1992; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. Now for the fundamental evaluations. Watt has an absurd overall grades and the majority of that quotient is attributed to rushing the passer. He has 18 stops on the year while also accumulating four sacks, 20 QB hits, 17 hurries, and six batted passes. Roethlisberger will be the man he is chasing who is the fourth-best QB in the NFL under pressure among those with at least 180 drop-backs. Roethlisberger has the second-best completion percentage under pressure at 60.5% while throwing three touchdowns and no interceptions. What is most interesting is that there is little, if any correlation, to Watts' great game performances and the team win-loss record. In games where he has been a meanous on the field and disrupting offensive flows getting five or more combined sacks, batted passes, and run stops, the Texans are 3-4. Texans are 15-17 when he gets a combined 2 sacks, batted passes, or run stops. So, in my opinion, he is one of the greatest defensive players ever, but not one person, even a defensive one that scores TD's, can offset the other weaknesses on the team and make a ajor difference in the win-loss ledger. I also believe the Steeler OL led by Marcus Gilbert will perform well as a unit and give Big Ben the time he needs to complete passes and move the chains. I also liek the defensive matchup advantage the Steelers have against slot receiver DeAndre Hopkins, who has caught 13-of 14 targets good for 3.10 yards per route. The Steelers safety Polamalu is having another brilliant season and will a major factor in stopping the Houston ground attack and will also be called up to cover Hopkins. Despite Waat's efforts, the Texans defense still ranks just 29th allowing 397 yards per game. This unit will be going against a Steelers offensive unit that ranks 4th in the NFL gaining 397 yards per game, third averaging 4.9 yards-per-rush, 4th averaging 137 rushing yards-per-game, and 8th gaining 259 pass ing yards per game. Takle the Steelers. 

15* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they take on the NY Giants in NFC showdown set to start at 4:25 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Dallas will win this game by 9 or more points. Giants were humiliated in last week's stunning loss in Philadelphia 27-0. They are a much better team than was seen in that ridiculous effort and are much better on the road than home based on ATS stats of various measures. Yet, Dallas i arguably playing the top and most complete football on both sides of the LOS. The Cowboys DeMarco Murray has been running through opposing defenses this year with ease. He leads the league in forced missed tackles on rushing attempts with 35, while the next highest has 25. Murray has 792 yards rushing this season, a 250-yard lead on the second-leading rusher in the league, and has had 471 of those yards come after contact. One of the few negatives of Murray’s game this year is the three fumbles he has had, which is the most among running backs. Some observers have noted his heavy work load, but he has not been hit hard all that often this season. So, I believe he is still playing with fresh legs and Dallas OL is vastly better (there is no comparison actually) to that of the Eagles OL. I strongly believe that Giants will have immense difficulty stopping the Dallas ground attack and then will be exposed in vertical routes using play action when Romo sees cover-1 situations post snap. Giants are just 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) after being outgained by 150+ total yards in their previous game since 1992; Coughlin is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game as the coach of NY Giants. Dallas is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Giants are 0-6 ATS the past three season when allowing 150 or more rushing yards. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 37-14 ATS mark for 73% winners since 2003. Play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NY GIANTS) after a loss by 10 or more points and is now facing an opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game. Take Dallas.

15* graded play on the Oakland Raiders as they take on the Arizona Cardinals in NFL action set to start at 4:25 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that the Raiders will lose this game by fewer than 3 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection, I like playing this as a combination bet comprised as an 11* play on the line and a 4* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 30-8 mark for 79% winners since 1983. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ARIZONA) off 2 or more consecutive 'overs', a good offensive team scoring between 23-27 PPG and is now facing a struggling defensive team allowing between 23-27 PPG. Oakland came off the BYE and played by far their best game against a solid San Diego Chargers team. I strongly believe this will carry over to this matchup. Arizona loves to blitz and do so on 40% of snaps in 2014. Maurice Jones-Drew is back in the lineup and he was arguably the best blocking back in pass protection in the NFL in 2013. It goes largely unnoticed, but he is stellar with technique picking up blitzing corners and LB and this will give Carr that few extra fractions of a second to scan the field and deliver the ball in man coverage. The Raiders very young wideouts are extremely fast and execute disciplined routes. San Diego was exploited badly when any corner tried to bump them at the LOS and the same can be expected today in this matchup. Despite the record, Oakland now playing with confidence and they know they have a great shot at winning this game at home. 

25* graded play on the Carolina Panthers as they take on the Green Bay Packers set to start at 1:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Carolina will lose this game by fewer than 6 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 90-45 ATS mark for 67% winners since 1983. Play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (GREEN BAY) after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers and is now facing an opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. Carolina appears to like extended road trips. HC Rivera is 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) after playing their last game on the road;  8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons. Carolina is a solid 41-18 ATS (+21.2 Units) facing struggling rushing defenses allowing >=130 rushing yards/game since 1992.  Here is a money line system that has been a great money maker with a 23-9 mark making 21 units/unit wagered averaging a +130 DOG play since 2003. Play against any team using the money line (CAROLINA) after beating the spread by more than 28 points in their previous game and is a solid team winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season. Green Bay is coming off a real score in Miami and needed Rogers magic to win the game in the final seconds. Carolina is coming off a tie in arguably a game they could have won in OT. The Packers really struggle to contain an opponents ground attack. Newtown is become quite good in play action pass and has the mobility that can extend plays and put immense pressure on the Packers secondary. Newtown gained a season-high 107 rushing yards on a career high 17 rushing attempts last week. This is solid evidence that his ankle and ribs are near 100% healed and he will be a real problem for GB to contain. Newton is currently the top-graded QB with a +15.0 overall grade. Time in Pocket stats show that Newton is averaging 2.53 seconds to attempt a pass where he averaged 2.73 in 2013. He also has had the ball out in under 2.5 seconds on 51.8% of his drop-backs as compared to 40% in 2013. This is a critical matchup as Newton's duel threat serves to offset the mountain of injuries they have suffered with running backs this season. I believe you will see Carolina look to run the ball behind their best grading OL in Ryan Kalil and have success. Take Carolina. 

25* graded play on the Florida State Seminoles when they take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in NCAAF action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that FSU will win this game by 13 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 34-11 ATS for 76% winners since 1992. Play on home favorites (FLORIDA ST) - off 2 consecutive wins by 10 points or more against a conference rival and is now facing an opponent after a home game where both teams scored 31 or more points. 63% of the games played or 80% of the winning cash tickets covered the spread by 7 or more points and this underscores my belief that FSU will cover this game easily. The SU record is an incredible 41-4 and the average score has been a 46-18 home win. Like so many of you, I am ready to turn the page on Winston. I never condone any behavior by any athlete or programs that would protect their 'entitled' players. FSU is a very respectable university and one that is run with a strong southern moral fiber through it. I know this for fact. I also know that the media and 'haters' are on a witch hunt now to attack a young man. Again, not saying if he got paid for the autographs or not, but how difficult would it be for any of us, to say no time and time again, to agents, brokers, and slime ball web sites, when offered huge amounts of cash - and being a broke college football player. So, before I ever point the finger at anyone, I do try and put myself in their shoes first. If he did violate the school's conduct policy, FSU will do the right thing. Ok, enough of that. What I do see is a matchup where FSU has significant advantages in the speed an quickness departments on both sides of the ball. I just do not see how Notre Dame can overcome this simple fact and be able to dominate even one side of the LOS. No doubt, that FSU will look to spread the field and expose the middle of the ND defense. In the spread, Winston can roll out and elude any pressure and then make easy to complete pass plays or run the ball for significant gains. I don't see how ND defense, although they have been solid so far this season, will get critical stops of first down and force FSU into long situations. Quite frankly, with the speed FSU has on offense, it will be extremely difficult for ND to stop FSU on any down, especially if they are caught in man coverage on the perimeter. I don't liek the media attention on the FSU program anymore than you do. Yet, looking at the facts of this game, the matchups, and the game situations, FSU is the clear play. ND is 1-6 ATS over the past three seasons and 13-63 ATS since 1992 when allowing 28 or more points. Based on the facts, it would be a monumental ND effort for them to contain FSU to fewer than 28 points. Take FSU.

25* graded play on Southern Mississippi as they take to the road to play C-USA rival North Texas set to start at 7:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Southern Miss (SMU) will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great shot a monumental upset. I see mostly +290 money lines and would look to work to get +300 throughout the day. With the game starting at 7:00 PM ET. I would book this bet with the lines available no later than 5:00 PM ET and the reason is protect yourself from adverse line movements. I have seen situations like this in the past and I expect some heavy flows to begin late afternoon on Southern Mississippi. The public has been steadily feeding North Texas since the line opened with nearly 70% of all wagers on them. At these extremes, it is not unusual to see the 'sharps' come in late. Both teams are average at best running teams. North Texas struggles quite frankly and if you take out the blowout win over a vastly inferior Nicholls State team where they gained 324 yards, they are not impressive at all. What I am greatly impressed with is the SM passing attack led by QB Nick Mullins, who has attained a 199.3 QB rating. He is vastly better than he was in 2013 where he completed 49.3% of his passes, gaining 6.44 YPA with 13 TD and 14 INT and was sacked 25 times. In 2014 he is 142-for-244 for 58% completions and 1604 yards, gaining 6.57 YPA. His reads are vastly better and I strongly believe he will have a huge night against a highly suspect NT secondary. Last week Mullens went 36-for-54 for 426 yards (67% completions) and a 147 QB rating against a much stronger Middle Tennessee State team. SM was installed as 16 1/2 point dogs and nearly pulled off the upset in a shootout type of affair. In fact, the last three weeks have shown marked improvement by Mullens, the OL, and the entire offensive unit ands this builds confidence. Take Southern Mississippi. 

15* graded play on Northern Illinois as they take on Miami (Ohio) in MAC Conference action set to start at 5:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that NI will win this game by 17 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 46-19 ATS mark for 71% winners since 2008. Play against underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (MIAMI OHIO) after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games and is a struggling team winning

15* graded play on Boston College as they take on Clemson in ACC Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that BC will lose this game by four or fewer points and has a great shot at wining the game. Here again, I like the use of a combination wager comprised of an 11* play on the line and a 4* play using the money line. Clemson is coming off several solid games, but are just  5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 4 straight games since 1992;  2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 5 straight games since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 49-10 ATS MARK FOR 77% WINNERS SINCE 2008. Play against any team in a conference matchup (CLEMSON) that is a struggling rushing team gaining between 3 to 3.5 YPR and is now facing a team with a good rushing defense allowing between 3 to 3.5 YPR. This is strength against strength and I strongly believe that BC will get the job done very well on the ground. After their recent games, I am concerned that Clemson may show up a bit flat and think the game is won before it even starts. Take Boston College.

15* graded play on Virginia as they take on Duke in a very important ACC showdown for both teams.  The simulator shows a high probability that UVA will earn the win here. Given this favorable projection, I like making this a combination wager ONLY if you can get at least +145 on the money line. I believe you may be able to get this and perhaps a touch higher as some books move the line to +3 1/2. So, this combination wager would consist of an 11* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 63-23 ATS for 73.3% winners since 2008. It is 12-2 ATS this season. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (VIRGINIA) off 1 or more consecutive 'unders' and is a solid offensive team scoring 31 or more points/game. Simply, UVA has been able to run the ball very well over the past three weeks and have been very stingy allowing rushing yards. Duke has not been able to stop the run allowing 200+ rushing yards in their last four weeks. UVA will control the LOS and will have fantastic pass opportunities in man coverage on play action. Take Virginia. 

15* graded play on the Temple Owls as they take on the Houston Cougars in American Conference action set to start at 9:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Temple will lose this game by fewer than 7 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 20-6 mark for 77% winners since 2008 and has made 21 units/unit wagered. It has averaged a +135 DOG play. Play against a home teams in conference tilts using the money line (HOUSTON) turnover prone team with 2.5+ TO/game committed and is now facing an opportunistic team with 2.5+ TO/game forced. This next system is truly a great one posting a 210-22 losing mark for just 49% winners, BUT has made a whopping 97 units/unit wagered averaging a +152 DOG play since 2003.  Play on a  road team using the money line (TEMPLE) in a game between two teams with 8 or more defensive starters returning. So, given the favorable projections calling for the upset, I like making this a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Speaking of defense, Temple is play some of th ebest in the Conference and is a large reason they are 4-1 on the season. Through five games, Temple's opponents have been in the red zone 12 times, scoring just six times and giving the Owls (50 percent), the top red zone defense in the nation. Temple's offense is 19 of 23 (82.6 percent) in the opponent's red zone. The Owls have scored 13 touchdowns and six field goals. Last season, Temple allowed 102 points in the fourth quarter. Through five games this season, the Owls have allowed just three points in the fourth quarter. Houston has doubt now with who is leading the offense after sophomore QB John O'Korn, who  led all true freshmen nationally last season with 28 touchdowns and was second in the conference behind only Louisville's Teddy Bridgewater, was benched in favor Greg Ward. Further, Houston lost their defensive leader to season-ending injury last week and Temple loves to work the middle of the field and they do it quite well. Take Temple.

15* graded play on Oregon State as they take on Utah in PAC-12 Conference action set to start at 10:00 PM ET.  This is an important swing game as both teams look to get one game closer to bowl eligibility. The winner likely makes the postseason while the loser faces an uphill battle based on the remaining schedules. OSU’s Sean Mannion continues his march toward the conference passing record, while Utah’s QB status is ongoing with Travis Wilson and Kendal Thompson essentially competing for playing time. The simulator shows a high probability that OSU will win this game. Should the line get to 3 1/2, which I would not rule out given the public wagering flows, then I would suggest making this a combination wager using a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 30-7 ATS mark for 81% winners since 2003. Play against road favorites (UTAH) that are an excellent offensive team scoring >=34 PPG and is now facing an average defensive team allowing between 21 to 28 PPG and after a win by 6 or less points. 50% of the plays made based on this system have covered the spread by 7+ points. The system has gone 7-1 ATS over the past three seasons for 88% ATS winners. Oregon State is coming off of a 'rested' week and are in a favorable historical situation. HC Riley is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) after a bye week as the coach of Oregon State. What I mean by 'rested' is that they last played October 4 at Colorado and won 36-31 and covered as 4 point favorites. They have had extra rest. Many are going to coin this a BYE week but they have not had 13 days of rest between games. Utah has had the same extra rest, but that has not been a favorable situation for them. The reason is that in most of these games, Utah has been favored against a notably weaker opponent and the line gets far too inflated due to public sentiment. Last Mannion torched the Utes for 443 passing yards and five touchdowns in their 51-48 OT win. Certainly, Mannion figures to be under more pressure this time against the Utes, who lead the FBS with 28 sacks despite having played a game or two fewer than most schools. Utah is giving up an average of 21.4 points to rank third in the conference, more than a touchdown lower than last year's mark. However, the OSU offensive line is quite good and they take two TE they are excellent pass blockers that can double team DE and seal off the perimeter too for spread formation running plays. The Utes did exceptionally well against UCLA, but OSU is a vastly different style of football team on both sides of the ball that will make it far more difficult for the Utes in this matchup. Take Oregon State.

25* graded play on the New York Giants as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in a huge NFC showdown set to start on Sunday Night Football at 8:20 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that the Giants will win this game. Based on the risk/reward profiles, I would only play a combination wager if this line would move to +3 1/2. It is unlikley that this will occur, but if it does, then consider a combination wager using a 19* play on the line and a 6* play using the money line. After an 0-2 start, the Giants new and improved West Coast variation offense is playing at a very high level. The Eagles are 4-1, but have attained this mark by playing the second easiest schedule of any NFL team to date. The Giants run the most 3 WR sets in the NFL and this presents huge problems for a highly suspect Eagle secondary. Moreover, the emergence of rookie WR Beckham as the third WR presents a real big problem given his speed and great route execution. Then add the Giants solid running game that will be going against the 20th ranked run blocking defense, which will set up play action for Eli to look vertical to Beckham, who will definitely be in man coverage, and you have the recipe for a dominating win. Eagles defensive front ranks 22nd in defensive pass blocking. Further, the Giants OL is quite good anchored by the best in the NFL in OT William Beatty. There is has been trash talking from the Eagles defensive players saying they are going to make Eli's night an absolute nightmare by bringing pressure. Yet, I don't see this happening under this new varied WC offensive scheme. Note that, Eli now ranks third in the NFL getting his passes off quickly in 2.5 seconds or less on 67% of the snaps. Giants defensive line ranks 3rd best against power running plays. The Eagles have struggled to get the ground game going against far weaker defensive front seven. Foles is having his own problems this season and ranks just 23rd this year at 82.5. He has a 53.3 rating on passes of 20+ yards in the air, getting picked off a league-high four times on 31 attempts, which is also tops in the NFL. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-31 mark for just 51% winners, BUT has made a whopping 40 units/unit wagered since 1983. The average play has been a +220 DOG. Play against home teams using the money line (PHILADELPHIA) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread and is a top-level team winning >= 75% of their games and now playing a marginal winning team winning between 51% to 60% of their games. 

25* graded play on the Washington Redskins as they take on the Arizona Cardinals in NFC action set to start at 4:25 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Washington will lose this game by four or fewer points. I like making this a combination wager using a 21* amount on the line and a 4* play on the generous money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 23-5 ATS mark for 82% winners since 2003. Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (WASHINGTON) after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last three games, in October games. This system has gone an impeccable 7-1 ATS for 88% winners over the past three seasons. Washington is the best 1-4 team in the league, at least on paper. Getting on the road for many losing record teams offers far more peace of mind and ability to just focus on playing the game and executing game plans. Cousins has played well and I look for him to be more like his first two starts than his last two. He ranks fifth in the NFL averaging 8.1 yards-per-attempt and ranks in the Top-10 in both completion percentage beyond 20 yards and total passing yards. Arizona has two of the best corners in the game in Peterson and Cromartie, but there are many other opportunities to exploit downfield. Further, the Washington defense matches up very well against the Cardinals offensive scheme, which will be limited given their QB situation. Hatcher ranks  best with 4 sacks by a 3-4 DE and is second behind Watts in pass rushing grade at his position. LB Kerrigan ranks  third among 3-4 OLB in pass rushing grades and second in the league causing 15 QB hurries. I strongly believe that Arizona will struggle to move the chains on offense and that Washington will dominate the LOS on both sides of the ball. Further, in last Sunday's loss to Denver the Cardinals lost two more starters in OLB Shaughnessy and DE Calais Campbell. You can bet that Washington will look to attack the left side of the defense where Shaughnessy plays. Take Washington. 

25* graded play on the Miami Dolphins as they take on the Green Bat Packers in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Miami will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like a combination wager for this play consisting of a 20* play on the line and a 5* play on the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 30-7 ATS mark for 81% winners since 1983.  Play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GREEN BAY) off 2 or more consecutive 'overs', a good offensive team scoring between 23 to 27 PPG against a defensive team allowing between 23 and 27 PPG. The following game situations match the SIM projections. Miami is a rock solid 5-1 ATS L3 seasons when the rush for 5.0 to 5.5 yards per attempt; 9-1 ATS L3 seasons when they score 22 to 28 points; 5-1 ATS L3 seasons when they gain 350 to 400 total offensive yards. Further, Philbin is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a home underdog as the coach of Miami. Here is a money line system supporting the upset projection and has posted a 33-9 mark for 79% winners over the past 10 seasons and has made 30 units/unit wagered. Play against road teams using the money line (GREEN BAY) after beating the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game in weeks 5 through 9. The average play has been a +120 dog and has gone 2-0 already this season. The Miami defense is quite good , especially in the secondary. I fully expect that unit to cool down the red hot combination of Rogers to Nelson in this game. Miami runs the ball very well and Green Bay has significant trouble stopping the run. Based on my metrics, GB defensive line ranks 25th in the NFL in run blocking. Further, they rank 18th in pass rush efficiency. Miami's OL ranks second best in the NFL behind St. Louis, in run blocking and rank 14th in pass protection. In Week 1, the Packers were easily defeated by the Seattle Seahawks, who rank 6th best currently in run blocking. Further, Miami's OL does an fantastic job getting to the second level. They rank best in the NFL by a wide margin in yards gained at the second level. So, I fully expect Lamar Miller to have a big day running the ball. Yet, it doesn't stop there either, as Knowshon Moreno is expected back from his elbow injury. QB Tannehill will have many options available to him in play action to keep the chains moving. Take Miami.

25* graded play on USC as they take to the road to play Arizona in a major PAC-12 showdown set to start at 10:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that USC will win this game by 7 or more points. Arizona is off to an impressive 5-0 start, but their good fortune is going to run out tonight. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 67-29 ATS mark for 70% winners over the past 10 seasons.  Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (USC) that are average rushing team gaining between 3.5 to 4.3 YPR and is now facing a team with an average rushing D allowing between 3.5 to 4.3 YPR. 42% of these plays covered the spread by 7+ points. SIM projects that the Trojan offense will be in full gear gaining 450 to 500 total yards. In past games, Arizona is an imperfect 0-4 over the past three seasons and just 4-22 ATS since 1992 when the have allowed 450 to 500 offensive yards. Further, Arizona is just 3-13 ATS over the past three seasons and 20-84 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 28 or more points. Arizona is off one of the biggest wins in school history, but are vulnerable to showing up flat in this matchup. HC Rodriguz is just  2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games in all games he has coached since 1992. Trojan HC Sarkisian is a solid money making 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) after allowing 37 points or more last game in all games he has coached since 1992. Take the Trojans.

15* graded play on Florida as they host LSU in SEC action set to start at 7:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Florida will win this game by three or more points. In past seasons, this matchup has nearly always had national championship implications, but in this year's SCE, these two teams are average competitors. Still, the winner of this game will have just one loss and could work their way into the SEC Championship picture. Obvioulsy, I strongly believe that Florida, play at home in the Swamp, will be the winner and maintain their hopes. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 29-7 mark for 81% winners using the Money Line and has made 22 units/unit wagered since 2008. Play on a home team using the money line (FLORIDA) after a win by 6 or less points and is now facing an opponent after a loss by 17 or more points. LSU was hammered by Auburn 41-7 last week. That type of loss is going to be impossible for LSU to shake off. The LSU program is accustomed to inflicting scoreboard pain on their opponents and they have not been defeated this badly on the field of play in years. Moreover, they are just  1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) after trailing in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half since 1992. This clearly reflects how difficult it is to recover from shocking losses. Take Florida. 

15* graded play on the Houston Cougars as they take on the Memphis Tigers in American Conference action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that that Houston will lose this game by 7 or fewer points. I like playing this as a combination wager comprised as a 11* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 55-19 mark for 74.3% ATS winners since 2003. Play on a road team (HOUSTON) after scoring and allowing 17 points or less points and is now facing an opponent after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. 50% of the games played based on this system covered the spread by 7+ points. In their last game, the Cougars had UCF on the ropes with a strong drive late in the 4th quarter, but a brilliant play causing a fumble preserved the UCF win. I believe this provides a confidence building experience for the team instead of a demoralizing one knowing they had a strong UCF team defeated. Moreover, UCF is vastly better opponent than Memphis and I fully expect Houston to add another win to their streak of 6 straight road conference covers. Take Houston

15* graded play on UCLA as they take on Oregon in PAC-12 action set to start at 3:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that UCLA will win this game and take a major step forward to playing in the PAC-12 Championship game. Oregon suffered a humiliating defeat losing to a +24 point dog in Arizona. With last week's major upsets, Oregon hopes were resurrected. However, a second loss to UCLA will all, but end any conference title hopes and playing into the 4-team National Championship playoff. UCLA played late last week after all the upsets and lost to an inspired Utah team. They too, know another loss ends title hope. They are playing at home and I strongly believe they are the better team, especially on the defensive end. The Oregon defense has been torched this season both through the air and on the ground. I don't see how they will keep UCLA from scoring at least 28 points. The following game situations match the SIM projections for this game. UCLA is 5-1 ATS the past three seasons when gaining between 300 and 350 net passing yards; 17-6 ATS the past three seasons when they have scored 28 or more points; 8-1 ATS over the past three seasons when they have gained 500 or more total offensive yards; 9-1 ATS the past three seasons when gaining more than 6.5 yards-per-play. Take UCLA. 

25* graded play on the Texas Long Horns as they take on Oklahoma in Big-12 Conference action set to start at Noon ET. It will be played on the tradition neutral field, the Cotton Bowl, in Dallas, TX.  The vision of a 50-50 crowd in Dallas and the bus ride through the Texas State Fair to get to the Cotton Bowl have helped make this one of the best rivalries. The simulator shows a high probability that Texas will lose this game by fewer than 14 points. Oklahoma is off a very tough loss last week to TCU and now must rebound quickly to play in this historic rivalry game. Texas ranks 38th in my NCAA Football ranks with a 2-3 record, but have not played close to their potential. This is the perfect opportunity for them catch a wounded and down trodden Sooner team and make it a very heated battle for four quarters. Further, the public is all over the Sooners under the presumption that they will be one angry team after last week's loss and take it all out on the Long Horns. Problem is that the Sooners are wounded both mentally and physically. Texas has also been a victim of poor field position in nearly every game. 31% of their possessions have started inside their own 20-yard line and that ranks 119th in the nation. Their opponents have only had 24% of their possession start inside the 20 and thanks as 26th least in the nation. This is  factor of many situations, but they do tend to even out over the course of the season. For example, not all punts will due inside the 20, but Texas has gone through this with several unlucky bounces pinning them in. Based on the matchups, I fully expect them to enjoy far more favorable start field position in this game. HC Charlie Strong is a perfect  9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in road games off 2 or more consecutive 'unders' in all games he has coached since 1992; 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games when playing against a top-level team that wins > 75% of their games in all games he has coached since 1992. Sooners are coming off hard fought games against WVU and TCU in the past two weeks. The secondary was gutted for more than 300 + passing yards in both games. I highly expect the Texas offense to go no-huddle early in this game in a solid effort to wear down an already fatigued defensive unit. Last, Texas may be 20-3 on the season, but have played far more difficult opponents as a body, then the Sooners. This too should be a dividend for the Long Horns in the Cotton Bowl Saturday. Take Texas.

15* graded play on UNLV as they take on Fresno State in Mountain West Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that UNLV will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. FSU sits atop the MW West Division with a 2-0 record, while UNLV has gone winless at 0-2 and is in the basement of the same Division. However, this is a game that I strongly believe UNLV will matchup well against and be able to compete fiercely for the full game. Putting a 2* extra play using the money line is an excellent wager. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 71-37 ATS for 66% winners since 1992. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UNLV) that are off 2 or more consecutive 'unders' and with a poor first half defense allowing 16 or more points per game. UNLV QB Blake Decker will be playing tonight and is now listed as 'probable' in the NCAA injury report. With him under center, I have no doubt the Rebels will score at least 28 points and the SIM confirms this expectation. In past games over the last three season, UNLV is a solid 8-2 ATS for 80% winners. Further, the Rebels are a stout 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in home games after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992. Take UNLV. 

5* graded parlay on New Mexico and the 'over' in Mountain West showdown between New Mexico State and San Diego State set to start at 9:30 PM ET.  I also like making 10* plays each on NMST and the 'OVER' as a replacement for the parlay. I fully expect NMST to win this game and are currently installed as 4 point home dogs. This opens up another wagering consideration to p;lay NMST and the 'over' each for an 8* play and then add a 5* play using NMST on the Money Line and the 'over' as a parlay. The same system outlined in the UNLV play support the play on NMST in this matchup too. Remember, that systems, trends, and game situations serve only to reinforce the graded play from the SIM. In this case it is simply coincidence that the same system applies to both of these graded SIM plays. 

10* graded play on the Colts as they take on the Houston Texans in a significant showdown of AFC South Rivals.  The simulator shows a high probability that the Colts will win this game by five or more points. SIM shows projections calling for the Colts defense to contain the Texans offense to between 5.0 and 5.5 yards per play and 300 to 350 total offensive yards. In past games, the Colts are a near-perfect 8-1 ATS when they have allowed 300 to 350 offensive yards in games played over the past three seasons; 7-1 ATS when they have allowed 5.0 to 5.5 yards per play in games played over the past three seasons. Colts will be without two starting guards along the OL and this certainly will force them to use a second TE to double team Watt on the perimeter. He has been relentless and is playing a higher level then even the great Reggie White once did for the Eagles. However, Luck has been exhibiting a near-perfect pocket passer clinic so far this season. He is getting the ball out quickly and will use a three step drop tonight more often than in previous games.  Simply stated, the Colts have far too many weapons on offense for Watt and his teammates to contain. Further, Colts love the Thursday Night lights posting a 9-1 ATS mark. Take Indianapolis. 

10* graded play on the BYU Cougars as they take to the road to play UCF set to start at 7:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that BYU will win this game. BYU lost Hill to leg fracture in their upset loss at Utah State last week. Christian Stewart was thrown suddenly into the mix and played well for his first-ever FBS play. he had several WR open on vertical routes and simply over threw them. There are numerous reasons for not connecting on those passes and nerves arguably the top one. I strongly believe that BYU will just plug and play with Stewart under center. He does not have as much of a duel threat as Hill brought to the game, but does have the skill set to successfully move the ball against the UCF defensive unit. BYU has been a very resilient team as evident by their 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) mark after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses in games played over the last three seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 75-76 mark for 50% winners, BUT has made a whopping 75 units/unit wagered averaging a +200 DOG wager. Play on a road team using the money line (BYU) after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games, in the first half of the season. Take BYU.

25* graded play on the Washington Redskins as they host the Seattle Seahawks in NFC action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Washington will lose this game by fewer than 7 points. I also like making this a combination wager using a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 43-16 ATS mark for 73% winners since 2003. Play on underdogs or pick (WASHINGTON) that is an excellent passing team averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/attempt and after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in three straight games. This system has gone a near-perfect 11-1 ATS mark over the past three seasons. This is certainly a contrarian type of play with the Seahawks comig off the BYE and the Redskins reeling from a comprehensive and embarrassing defeat to the Division rival Giants. Yet, that is exactly why this play makes sense to me. I am more focused on the personnel the Redskins do have and that I fully expect them to bounce back strong tonight. I am not concerned about Cousins and how the Redskins offense will perform tonight, but rather the MAJOR advantage that the Washington defense, especially the D-line has in this matchup. In his final two seasons with the Dallas Cowboys, Jason Hatcher recorded 16 sacks and 93 total pressures, making him one of the most disruptive interior pass rushers in the league. He hasn’t missed a step since arriving in Washington, with a +9.8 pass rush grade, second among 3-4 defensive ends, four sacks, 13 total pressures and a 10.8 Pass Rushing Productivity score. Hatcher takes on an offensive  line featuring three players with negative pass blocking grades; J.R. Sweezy (-1.9), Max Unger (-1.3) and Justin Britt (-1.1) and he will present a constant threat for the entire game. Further, Ryan Kerrigan ranks second-best among linebackers with more than 50 run snaps played and has recorded five sacks, three QB hits, and 21 total QB pressures. Take Washington. 

25* graded play on the St. Louis Rams as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in NFC Conference action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Rams will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has an excellent shot at winning the game. Given this favorable upset projection, I will make this a combination wager using a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 36-12 ATS mark for 75% winners since 1983.  Play against favorites (PHILADELPHIA) in a game involving two poor rushing teams with both out rushed by opponents by 40+ YPG and after being out rushed by 100 or more yards last game. Here is a second system that has gone 37-24 using the money line and has made 28 units/unit wagered since 2008. Play against home teams using the money line (PHILADELPHIA) after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games and is now facing an opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. Philadelphia is just 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games facing solid passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better over the last three seasons. Rams offensive line is quite good and vastly better than the Rams offensive unit stats would otherwise suggest. RT Barksdale is among the league best in run blocking and each player along the OL has achieved a positive run blocking grade for the season. The Eagles have a young and aggressive DL, but will need to bring a safety into the box to help stop and contain the run. The Rams HC Fisher named third string QB Austin Davis the starter for the remainder of the season. He ranks first in the NFL with a 72.3% completion percentage and has shown great awareness and accuracy in play action pass plays. Eagles defense has been largely inconsistent and I strongly believe the Rams offensive will be quite successful running and passing the football. The Eagles OL is in a state of flux, but do have RT Johnson returning after serving his four-week suspension for violating the league substance abuse policy. Yet, the OL needs reps to be cohesive and to consistently open up running lanes for their frustrated All-Pro RB McCoy. Foles has struggled this season, but will have a better game this week than the disaster he had in San Francisco last week. Yet, the vast holes on both the offensive and defensive units will give the Rams an d excellent shot at bringing their record to 2-2 for the season. Take the Rams. 

25* graded play on the Nebraska Cornhuskers as they take on the Michigan State Spartans in BIG Ten action set to start at 8:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Nebraska will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great shot a very impressive road victory moving their season record to a perfect 6-0. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-9 ATS mark for 78% winners since 2003. Play on road underdogs (NEBRASKA) outrushing their opponents by 1.75 or more yards/carry on the season and after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game. 59% of these plays covered the spread by 7+ points and underscores my strong belief that MSU can win this game SU. Here is a second system playing against MSU and has gone 75-34 ATS for 69% winners since 2003. Play against home favorites (MICHIGAN ST) in a game involving two mistake-free teams averaging

15* graded play on Auburn as they host the LSU Tigers in SEC action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Auburn will win this game by 10 or more points.  The Auburn ground attack is going to dominate and wear down the LSU defense. The SIM projects that Auburn will gain at least 300 rushing yards. In past games, LSU is an imperfect 0-1 ATS this season and 0-9 ATS. Further, LSU is 0-1 ATS this season, 0-3 ATS the past three seasons, and just 11-52 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 28 or more points; 1-2 ATS the past three seasons and 3-16 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 450 to 500 offensive yards. Auburn is a perfect 2-0 ATS this season, 13-0 ATS the past three seasons, and 24-5 ATS since 1992 when they have rushed for 300 or more yards; 2-1 ATS this season, 15-3 ATS the past three seasons, and 89-34 ATS since 1992 when they have scored 28 or more points. Last but not least, Malzahn is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when facing an excellent offensive teams averaging >=6.25 yards/play as the coach of Auburn.  

15* graded play on Northern Illinois as they take on Kent State in MAC Conference action set to start at 5:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that NI will win this game by 27+ points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 45-10 ATS mark for 82% winners since 2003. Play on home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (N ILLINOIS) off a bye week. Of the total plays made, 56% of them covered the spread by 7+ points. The following game situations match the SIM projections for the composite stats for the game results. NI is a solid 2-0 ATS this season, 16-5 ATS the past three seasons, and 72-30 ATS since 1992 when they have scored 28 or more points; 2-0 ATS this season, 11-6 ATS the past three seasons, and 31-14 ATS since 1992 when they have gained more than 500 offensive yards. Kent State is just 0-2 ATS this season, 3-8 ATS the past three seasons, and 18-49 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 28 or more points; 0-2 ATS this season, 0-4 ATS the past three seasons, and 4-13 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 250 to 300 rushing yards. Take Northern Illinois. 

15* graded play on West Virginia as they take on Kansas in BIG-12 conference action set to start at 4:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that WVU will win this game by 30+ points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 45-10 ATS mark for 82% winners since 2003. Play on home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (W VIRGINIA) off a bye week. The following game situations match the SIM projections for composite statistical results. Kansas is just 0-2 ATS this season, 3-12 ATS the past three seasons, and 31-102 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 28 or more points; 0-1 ATS this season, 1-7 ATS the past three seasons, and 11-49 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 9.0 or more net passing yards per attempt; 0-1 ATS this season, 1-7 ATS the past three seasons, and 16-46 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 500+ offensive yards. I see very little chance, if any, that Kansas could contain West Virginia to less than 28 points and/or less than 500 offensive yards. Take the Mountaineers. 

15* graded play on TCU as they take on Oklahoma in Big-12 Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that TCU will lose this game by less than 4 points and has a great shot at winning the game SU and upsetting the fourth ranked Sooners. Given this favorable upset projection, I will be making this a combination wager comprised of a 11* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 87-44 ATS mark for 67% winners since 2003. Play on any team (TCU) with a great scoring defense allowing 14 or less points/game and after 3 straight wins by 21 or more points. Here is a money line system that has gone 56-63 for just 47% winners, BUT has made a whopping 59 units/unit wagered averaging a +220 DOG play since 1992. Play on underdogs of +155 to +300 using the money line (TCU) in a game involving two good rushing teams; both outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG and after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games. Two very good defenses in this matchup with TCU ranking best in the nation in scoring defense. This will certainly be the most difficult test yet for TCU, but one I see ending very favorably for them. The speed and quickness, and discipline will be quite evident on the TCU defense. I also strongly believe that TCU will get QB pressure with just four pass rushers and this will allow the secondary to make plays and create turnovers. TCU is the play. 

15* graded play on Mississippi as they host Alabama in SEC action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Mississippi will lose this game by fewer than 4 points and has a great shot a big time win for the program. I like making this play a combination wager using an 11* play on the line and a 4* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 35-11 ATS mark for 76% winners since 1992.  Play on a home team (OLE MISS) after 2 straight wins by 17 or more points and is now facing an opponent after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games. of the 46 plays made based on the criteria of this system, 27 of them or 59%, have covered the spread by 7 or more points. This certainly under scores the potential for the DOG to win the game. Further, this system has gone 9-1 ATS over the past three seasons. HC Freeze is Freeze is 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in games played on turf as the coach of Mississippi. Special teams may be a big factor and give that edge to Mississippi. Neither team has strong reliable special teams, but 'Bama has been horrid for a long stretch of games. Take Mississippi. 

15* graded play on the Florida Gators as they take on the Tennessee Volunteers in SEC action set to start at Noon ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Florida will win this game. I like the idea of playing this DOG as a money line play only. If the line should inflate to +3, then a combination wager using an 11* play on the line and a 4* play using the money line would be very attractive. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 47-10 ATS mark for 83% winners since 2008. Play against any team (TENNESSEE) that is a poor rushing team gaining between 3 to 3.5 YPR and is now facing a team with a good rushing defense allowing between 3 to 3.5 YPR and in conference showdowns. 50% of the total plays made covered the spread by 7 or more points.  When fine tuning this system to be used on the money line and just to play against home teams, the results are an outstanding 22-4 for 85% winners averaging a +120 DOG play. Florida is coming off the BYE week while Tennessee is gone through two very tough games losing at Oklahoma and losing at Georgia 35-32 last week. Very difficult to continue putting extreme effort into three straight games against elite SEC competition. Take the Gators. 

15* graded play on Syracuse as they take on Louisville in CFB action set to start Friday, October 3, at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Syracuse will win the game. Given this favorable projection, i will be playing this as a combination wager comprised of a 18* play using the line and a 7* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-7 ATS mark for a remarkable 82% winners since 2003. Play against any team (LOUISVILLE) with an incredible defense allowing 4.2 or less yards/play and  after allowing 150 or less total yards in their previous game. 50% of the total plays made covered the spread by 7 or more points and further under scores my strong belief that Syracuse can win this game. Further, Louisville is just  2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) after out gaining previous opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. Orange are a solid money making 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better since 1992. Syracuse lost to Notre Dame 31-15 with the Irish finding away to overcome 5 turnovers. They did very well against the Syracuse secondary, especially in play action. However, Louisville is nowhere close to having a similar offensive scheme and will struggle in the passing game against Syracuse. The SIM projects that Syracuse will score between 22 and 28 points and in past games are just 1-5 ATS when scoring within this range over the past three seasons. Take Syracuse.

10* graded play on the SMU Mustangs as they take on the East Carolina Pirates in CFB action set to start at 12:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that SMU will lose this game by fewer than 40 points. There is absolutely no reason for ECU to have any reason to run the score up. SIM shows that ECU may not even exceed the 40 point total. There are strong reasons to believe that once ECU gets this to a three score game, they will play the second and third units for the duration. This serves two purposes to give the bench players some game time and valuable experience and also to keep the starters well rested and free from injury. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 35-12 ATS mark for 75% winners since 2003. Play on a road team (SMU) with a weak and struggling offense averaging 250 or less total yards/game and after gaining 275 or less total yards in two consecutive games. Take SMU. 

25* graded play on the Oregon Ducks as they take on the Arizona Wild Cats in PAC-12 CFB action set to start at 10:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Oregon will win this game by 24+ points. Oregon is a stout  17-3 ATS (+13.7 Units) after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games since 1992. Arizona HC Rodriguez is a near-imperfect 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games in all games he has coached since 1992 and is an imperfect  0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging >=425 yards/game. Based on the SIM projections, Arizona must hold Oregon to less than 28 points to have a chance of just covering and I positively do not see that having even a remote chance of happening in this matchup. Arizona is just 3-13 ATS the past three seasons and 20-84 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 28 or more points. They are also just 1-6 ATS the past three seasons and 7-22 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 200 to 250 rushing yards in a game.  Oregon is 4-0 ATS the past three seasons and 33-7 ATS since 1992 when they have gained 200 to 250 rushing yards. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 45-9 ATS mark for 83% winners since 2003. Play on home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (OREGON) off a bye week. 57% of these plays covered the spread by 7+ points. Here is a second system that has gone 30-4 ATS for 88% winners since 2003. Play on home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (OREGON) with an elite offense averaging 6.4 or more yards/play and after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games. 60% of the plays made based on this system covered the spread by 7 or more points. Take Oregon.

20* graded play on the Minnesota Vikings as they take on the Green Bay Packers in NFC action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the the Vikings will lose this game by 7 or fewer points. Green Bay is off a very impressive win at Chicago and now play a Vikings squad that I believe matchup very well against the Packers. The apasckers are led by Jordy Nelson and Randal Cobb, who are at the top of the league or near the top in many statistical categories and metrics. However, the Vikings secondary has played well in pass coverage thus far this year, and even more so considering they have already faced Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, and Drew Brees. In the first four games this year, Brady has been the only quarterback to notch an overall positive grade. Safety Harrison Smith leads the team in coverage with a +6.1 grade, and an overall grade of +9.1, which ranks him as the top safety in the league. When quarterbacks throw into Smith coverage their NFL QB Rating is a 53.8. Further, Xavier Jones was matched agaist Atlanta's Julio Jones and held him to just two receptions on four targets for 27 yards. This performance was Rhodes' best of his career. Josh Robinson ranks as the 4th best corner in the NFL based on our metrics and has allowed just three yards after the catch on 6 total receptions. Teddy Bridgewater is listed as questionable, but from all media sources, it appears very likely he will start. The following game situations match the SIM projections. Vikings are a solid 12-4 ATS over the past three seasons when they gain 6 or more total yards per play; 7-1 ATS when they gain 7.0 to 7.5 yards per play; 13-3 ATS when they have rushed for 125 or more yards over the past three seasons; 6-1 ATS when they have rushed for 150 to 175 rushing yards. Packers are just 3-9 ATS over the past three seasons when they have allowed 150+ rushing yards; 2-5 ATS when they have allowed 6.0 to 6.5 yards per play over the last three seasons. Take Minnesota.