Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-12-23 | Flames -160 v. Blues | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 2 h 26 m | Show |
Calgary vs St. Louis Blues 3% 6-Unit bet on the Flames Betting on road favorites between –145 and –195 on the money line after the first 21 games (25% of the season), with a total of 6 or fewer goals and with the favorite having won just one of their past three games has earned a 185-83 record averaging a –162 wager and producing a solid average 17% ROI over the past 10 seasons. |
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01-12-23 | Celtics v. Nets +1.5 | Top | 109-98 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 1 m | Show |
Boston vs Brooklyn 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Nets plus the 2-points Consider betting 60% of your normal bet size pre-flop and then add 40% in-game at Nets +6.5 full game during the first half of action only. Durant will be out for at least two weeks with a sprained right knee after an MRI exam on Monday revealed an isolated sprain in his medial collateral ligament. Durant was injured in the third quarter when he collided with Miami's Jimmy Butler before the Nets concluded a three-game road trip with a 102-101 victory on Sunday. "No excuses," Brooklyn coach Jacque Vaughn said at practice Wednesday. "That's the biggest thing for this group. To (be in) the position last year where we were, I just say no excuses. Boston has had 4.2 percent of its shot attempts blocked this season while Brooklyn's rate is at 4.5, the two lowest percentages in the league. On the other end, both teams rank among the NBA's best in blocks per game -- the Nets are in first (6.98) and the Celtics fourth (5.40). Betting on home teams in a divisional matchup with both teams winning between 60 and 75% of their games and with the guest playing on back-to-back nights has gone 11-4 ATS for 73% winning bets over the past five seasons. |
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01-05-23 | Grizzlies -5.5 v. Magic | Top | 123-115 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
Memphis vs Orlando 5% 10-Unit Best Bet on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points Betting on road favorites coming off a blowout win of 20 or more points and facing an opponent that they and their respective opponents have scored 100 or more points in each of their last three games has earned an 85-27 SU (76%) record and 71-39-2 ATS (65%) winning bets since 2015. If the foe is playing on B2B nights, our road favorite has gone 13-5 ATS for 72% winning bets. If the host has a win percentage of less than 40% on the season and is playing on no more than a day of rest, our favorites have gone 35-15 ATS for 70% winning bets. The Memphis Grizzlies seek their fifth consecutive win and second in as many nights, playing the second leg of a road back-to-back on Thursday when they visit the Orlando Magic. Memphis won its fourth straight contest on Wednesday, 131-107 over the Charlotte Hornets, behind a balanced scoring attack. Nine Grizzlies finished with at least eight points, paced by Ja Morant's 23 points. No Memphis player was in the game for more than 28 minutes and 10 players played for at least 14 minutes. So, playing on back-to-back nights is not going to be a factor tonight. |
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01-02-23 | Mississippi State v. Illinois OVER 45.5 | Top | 19-10 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 40 m | Show |
Mississippi State vs Illinois 4% best bet on the OVER There will undoubtedly be an immeasurable amount of emotion in the matchup given the sudden passing of legendary Miss State head coach Mike Leach and will be shared by the team oppositive them in Illinois. There are some opt-outs and notable two key defensive players in the secondary for Illinois. Granted, their replacements are extremely good defenders and athletes, but do think the Air Raid will be on full display and Illinois can put up points against a suspect State defense that allows 26 PPG. Betting the Over in a bowl game in which both teams have the same number of wins and at least 8 wins each and one of the teams is allowing an average of 20 or fewer PPG on the season (Illinois) has earned a 35-25-1 record for 58% winning bets and is 9-4 OVER for 69% over the past five seasons. |
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01-01-23 | Rams v. Chargers -6.5 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
LA Rams vs LA Chargers 4% 8-Unit Bets Bet on the Chargers minus the points Home teams that are facing an opponent coming off an upset home win in a none-divisional matchup have gone an impressive 9-1 SUATS. From the predictive models, the Chargers are 17-2 SU and 15-4 ATS when scoring 24 or more points and forcing two or more turnovers in games played since 2015 and 15-1 SU and 13-3 ATS (81%) when scoring 24 or more points and forcing 2 or kore turnovers and having two or fewer turnovers in games played since 2015. |
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01-01-23 | Panthers v. Bucs -3.5 | Top | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 3 h 59 m | Show |
Carolina vs Tampa Bay 5% 10-Unit best bet on the Tampa Bay Bucs minus the points and consider the money line if the line would drop below 3-points After a 21-3 win in Week 7, the Panthers are going for the season sweep of the Buccaneers for the first time since 2017. That was also the last season the Panthers made the playoffs. However, this is a team led by Tom Brady, who rarely has ever been swept by a divisional foe. Moreover, enough is enough, with this underperforming Bucs offense and I do expect them to put up much bigger offensive numbers than their season-to-date averages. Road teams in a conference matchup that are coming off an upset by 14 or more points re just 7-28 SU (20%) and 12-22-1 ATS (35%) over the past five seasons. Road teams coming off an upset win in which they gained 275 or more rushing yards are just 3-7 SUATS. Road teams coming off an upset home win in games played in January are just 7-28 SU and 13-21-1 (38%). Moreover, teams that lost the previous matchup to the current opponent have a win percentage between 40 and 49% on the season facing a losing record foe, and with our team having lost five or six of their last seven games has gone 10-3 SUATS for 77% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. From the predictive playbook, the Bucs are 26-3 SU and 20-9 ATS for 69% winners when scoring 24 or more points and having the same or fewer turnovers than their opponent in games played over the past three seasons. |
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01-01-23 | Jaguars -3 v. Texans | Top | 31-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 49 m | Show |
Jacksonville vs Houston 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Jaguars minus the points Houston has beaten Jacksonville in nine-straight games going back to 2018, including a 13-6 victory in October this year. That is the Texans' longest winning streak against a single opponent in franchise history.The under for what it is worth has gone 12-4 for 75% in this situation in which the team has lost 7 exact games to the current opponent. If the total is 43 or fewer points, the Under is 8-3 for 73% winning bets. The Jags allowed three points in their previous game against the Jets in their 19-3 win and covered as 2.5-point road underdogs. They also allowed fewer than 3 points in week 2 in a 24-0 win over the Colts as 3-point home dogs. This is only the second time since 2006, that the Jaguars' defense allowed three or fewer points twice in the same season. Texans are 8-15 ATS following an upset road win. They did upset Tenn 19-14 as a 3-point road dog. Texans head coach Lovie Smith is 2-10 ATS for his career coming off an upset win regardless of location. From the predictive model, JAX is expected to gain at least 130 rushing yards and have the same or fewer turnovers. When they have met or exceeded these measures they have gone to a 15-5 SU mark for 75% and a 16-4 ATS record for 80% winning bets over the past five seasons. |
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01-01-23 | Saints v. Eagles -5 | Top | 20-10 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 48 m | Show |
New Orleans vs Philadelphia 4% 8-Unit Best bet on the Eagles minus the points Teams from week 12 on to the end of the regular season that are coming off just their second loss of the season and have two losses total for the season bounce back with a 43-12 SU record and 33-22 ATS mark for 60% winners since 1990. Digging further home favorites of 7.5 or fewer points, coming off their second loss of the season, from week 9 on out, and facing a losing record foe is 10-2 SU and 8-4 ATS since 1990. Teams that have won 7 or more games than the foe and are coming off a loss and now playing at home are 19-3 SU and 15-7 ATS (68%) since 1990 and a perfect 7-0 SUATS last 10 seasons. The eagles are 9-3 ATS in home games and have lost 3 of their last three games to the spread. From the predictive mode, the Eagles are 12-0 SU and 11-1 ATS when scoring 27 or more points and out-rushing their foes by at least 50 yards in games played since 2018. |
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12-31-22 | Ohio State +6 v. Georgia | Top | 41-42 | Win | 100 | 29 h 44 m | Show |
Peach Bowl - Mercedes-Benz Stadium - Atlanta, GA 5% 10-UNIT MAX Bet on the Ohio State Buckeye plus the points All the Buckeyes wanted was another opportunity to redeem themselves, just as Georgia did a year ago. The Bulldogs lost 41-24 to Alabama in the 2021 SEC title game but as the No. 3 seed in the CFP downed No. 2 Michigan 34-11 before defeating No. 1 Alabama 33-18 for the national championship. Ohio State's C.J. Stroud led the nation in passer efficiency rating. He threw for 3,340 yards, 37 touchdowns, and six interceptions but will be without receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba and running back TreVeyon Henderson due to injuries. Even so, Marvin Harrison Jr. had 72 receptions for 1,157 yards and 12 touchdowns, and the Buckeyes have plenty of big-play ability. Ohio State is extraordinarily deep in talent on both sides of the ball, but especially on offense. Ohio State is 14-3 ATS (82.4%) when not playing at home and coming off a home loss since 1990. The Ohio State Buckeyes have lost their last five games against the spread when facing ranked foes and as a DOG, though, and facing a ranked foe they are
Buckeye head coach Day is 6-0 ATS after two or more consecutive losses to the spread and Bulldog HC Smart is 8-20 ATS following a game that his team covered the spread and was priced as double-digit favorites. From the predictive model, we are expecting Ohio State to score 31 or more points and gain at least 6.5 yards per play OR gain at least 9 yards per pass attempt. In past games in which Ohio State met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to a 71-2 SU record and 56-16-1 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets over the past 15 seasons and 20-0 SU and 15-4 ATS for 79% winning bets. Exercise discipline first and foremost and bet on Ohio State. |
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12-28-22 | Kansas v. Arkansas -2 | Top | 53-55 | Push | 0 | 4 h 36 m | Show |
Kansas vs Arkansas 4% 8-Unit best bet on Arkansas and if this line moves to pick-em or less than a 2-point favorite consider the money line. From the predictive model, Arkansas is expected to score at least 28 points and have the same or fewer turnovers. In past games in which Arkansas met or exceeded these measures has led to a 9-0 SU record and an 8-1 ATS mark over the past five seasons. |
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12-27-22 | Georgia Southern v. Buffalo +5.5 | Top | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 1 h 51 m | Show |
Georgia Southern vs Buffalo 4% 8-Unit best bet plus the points and sprinkle the money line with a .5 added bet Betting on underdogs of six or fewer points playing on a neutral field after the week 4 that are coming off two consecutive losses to the spread and the most recent ATS was a game in which they were lined as double-digit favorites has earned an 11-9 record on the money line and a 14-6 ATS record good for 70% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. If a bowl game these dogs have gone 7-7 SU, 10-4 ATS for 71.4% winning bets. Georgia Southern is getting the large majority of the bets being made and presents a contrarian opportunity for us in this bowl game. Dogs of 3.5 to 0.5 points playing in bowl games getting less than 40% of the tickets bet on them have gone 109-687 ATS for 62% winning bets and a solid 22% ROI. I am going with Bowling Green in this one. |
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12-25-22 | Packers v. Dolphins -3 | Top | 26-20 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
Packers vs Dolphins 5% 10-UNIT MAX bet on the Dolphins Despite winning four of their last five meetings, the Packers are 5-10 all-time against the Dolphins. It is Green Bay's worst record against any active franchise. Moreover, Rogers has gone 18 consecutive starts without throwing for 300 or more yards and only Justin Fields and Taylor Heinicke have more cumulative starts. So, Rogers is not playing at the levels of previous seasons when they were playoff contenders. The Dolphins are allowing 15.3 points per game at home this season, 16.2 points per game less than on the road where they have allowed 31.5 PPG. That is the largest difference in the NFL and the third largest by any team in the last 40 seasons. The 2018 Chiefs, 16.6, and 2009 Seahawks, 16.2. Dolphins are at home and this is good news for their quarterback Tua, now 0-4 in starts when the weather is below 50 degrees with a passer rating of 71.4. In starts with a temperature of 50 degrees or higher, Tagovailoa boasts a 17-7 (.708) record with a passer rating of 98.1 over those 24 games. Betting on favorites that are taking on a foe that has gone Over the total by 35 points in total over their previous five games has earned a 52-37 ATS record for 63% winning bets over the padst five seasons. If our favorite has won more games than their opponent, they go on to a 38-20 ATS record for 65.5% winning bets last five seasons. If a no-divisional matchup is added our favorites have produced an 18-7 ATS mark good for 72% winning bets. |
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12-24-22 | Eagles +5 v. Cowboys | Top | 34-40 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
Philadelphia vs Dallas 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Eagles plus the points Betting on road dogs in a divisional fray that have outscored their opponents by an average of 15 or more PPG spanning their last three games have gone to earn a 27-16 ATS record good for 63% winning bets. Prescott has the most interceptions in the NFL (10) since returning from a broken thumb in Week 7 after missing five games. I also like the fact that Eagles TE Dallas Goedert is returning to the lineup from a shoulder injury. When he has injured I stated that he may be the most important player on the offense because of all the great things he does for the offense that do not get recorded in the box scores. His run blocking is the best in the NFL for TEs and I do expect Miles Sanders to get an above average amount of carries in this matchup. These run plays will attempt to get Goedert matched up against DE Micah Parsons, along with either the right or left tackle in a double team. Goedert will release his contact with Parsons quickly looking to get to the second level and open up gaping holes for Sanders to scoot through. Betting on underdogs including pick-em that are elite offenses averaging 6.0 or more YPPL and are coming off a game in which they outgained their previous opponent by at least 150 yards have earned a 38-14-1 ATS record good for 73% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Dogs in a divisional game, averaging 5.75 or more YPPL, won the previous matchup in the same season, are 7-3 ATS for 70% winners. |
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12-24-22 | Bills -8 v. Bears | 35-13 | Win | 100 | 2 h 23 m | Show | |
Buffalo Bills vs Chicago Bears 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Buffalo Bills minus the points Bills are 8-3 ATS when taking on a losing record team in games played over the past three seasons. Bills are 6-0 ATS coming off a win of 6 or fewer points and with the game taking place in the second half of the season in game splayed over the past three seasons. Bills head coach Sean McDermott is 10-1 ATS following a win by three or fewer points. From the predictive model, the Bills are 15-0 SU and 14-1 ATS for 93% winning bets over the past five seasons when scoring 28 or more points and outgaining their foe by at least 100 total yards. Bet the Bills and forget the weather for once. |
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12-24-22 | Giants v. Vikings -4 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 23 m | Show |
NY Giants vs Minnesota Vikings 4% 8-Unit best Bet on the Vikings minus the points Betting on any team playing on a Saturday that is coming off an upset win over a divisional rival has produced an unprofitable 11-24-2 ATS record for 31% winning bets and targets the Giants to fade in this matchup. If the total is between 42.5 and 49.5 points these teams have gone just 5-12 ATS for 29%. Giants are 0-6 ATS when facing excellent passing teams completing 64% or more of their past attempts in the second half of each of the past three seasons. Minnesota is 30-13-1 ATS following a game in which they scored no more than three points in the first half over the past 30 seasons. Teams, like the Vikings, who scored 7 or fewer points in the first half, but then scored 34 or more points in total in their previous game go on to an 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS record over the past five seasons. |
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12-24-22 | Falcons +6.5 v. Ravens | Top | 9-17 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 22 m | Show |
Atlanta vs Baltimore 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Falcons plus the points The weather forecast is for the game time temperature to be 15 degrees amid partly cloudy skies and very cold temperatures are expected for Saturday afternoon's game at M&T Bank Stadium. Moderate winds with strong gusts blowing diagonally across the field will make passing and kicking difficult. Betting on teams that have gone five consecutive games in which they forced no more than a single turnover in each of those games and now facing a foe coming off a game in which they had a turnover margin of -2 or worse has earned a highly profitable 68-39 ATS record for 64% winners. If this team is in a non-conference game and coming off a divisional game, they have gone 7-2 ATS for 78% winning bets. |
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12-24-22 | Bengals -3 v. Patriots | Top | 22-18 | Win | 100 | 2 h 22 m | Show |
Cincinnati vs New England 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Bengals minus the points Betting road favorites that are averaging at least 250 passing yards per game and coming off a horrid game in which they gained an average of only 5 or fewer passing yards per attempt are 19-4 ATS good for 83% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the game occurs from week 10 on out, the system has gone 15-2 ATS for 88% winning bets. |
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12-23-22 | Blue Jackets v. Blackhawks -105 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
Chicago vs Columbus 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Blackhawks using the money line Betting on favorites between -110 and -140 that has lost four of their last five matches, has won no more than 30% of their games on the season, and facing a foe that has lost five or more of their last seven games has gone 17-7 averaging a -127 favorite and producing a highly profitable 33% ROI over the past 15 seasons. |
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12-23-22 | Pelicans +3 v. Thunder | Top | 128-125 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
New Orleans vs OKC 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Pelicans Betting on a team (Pelicans) in a game lined between the 3’s facing an opponent that is coming off a home win of three or fewer points, has won between 40 and 49% of their games on the season, and has one or more fewer days of rest between games has gone 22-11-3 ATS for 67% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. C.J. McCollum struggled in his return from COVID-19 in early December, but has found his stride recently. In his past five games, McCollum is averaging 31.5 points, 7.5 assists and six rebounds while shooting 49.5 percent from the field. Last night he scored a season-high 40 points on 14-of-27 shooting, contributing seven 3-pointers, nine assists and eight rebounds. McCollum scored 19 points in the fourth quarter to help the Pelicans snap a four-game losing streak. So, I am looking for this hot streak to continue tonight against the Thunder and even more so that Zion Williamson has entered the COVID-19 protocol. Pelicans are 22-10-1 ATS for 69% winning bets when facing a losing record team that is allowing 46 or higher shooting in games played over the past two seasons. |
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12-23-22 | Bucks v. Nets -2 | Top | 100-118 | Win | 100 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
Milwaukee vs Brooklyn 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Nets minus the points or the money line if not priced more than -165. If you use the money line consider reducing the units to 5 or 5.5 units given that you are then risking about an 8-unit amount. Betting on home favorites that are revenging a double-digit loss to the current opponent and is coming off a home blowout win of 20 or more points has gone 23-2 SU for 92% winning bets on the money line. If a home favorite of not more than 3.5 points has produced an 8-2 SU record and 7-3 ATS mark for 70% winners. |
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12-23-22 | Raptors v. Cavs -4.5 | Top | 118-107 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
Toronto vs Cleveland 4% 8-Unit best bet on Cleveland minus the points Betting on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points facing a foe that they have lost the last two meetings against, and with that opponent coming off an upset win over a divisional rival has produced an 85-20 SU record and 62-37-6 ATS for 63% winning bets over the past 27 seasons. If a home favorite in this situation produced a 61-14 SU mark and 47-25-3 ATS for 65.3% winning bets; 13-5 ATS for 72% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. |
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12-22-22 | Air Force +3.5 v. Baylor | Top | 30-15 | Win | 100 | 33 h 47 m | Show |
Air Force vs Baylor 4% 8-Unit best bet on Air Force plus the points Betting on Armed Forces teams, Air Force, Army, and Nay, priced as underdogs of seven or fewer points OR favored and facing a foe that is averaging at least 24 or more PPG on the season in any bowl game has earned a 19-8 SU record and 20-7 ATS mark good for 74% winning bets over the past 25 bowl seasons and 11-3 ATS for 79% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. This will be the first time since 1977 that these two football programs will compete on the gridiron. Air Force senior Brad Roberts led the Mountain West Conference in rush attempts (308) and rushing yards (1621) this season. Roberts is the program’s all-time leader in career rush attempts (671) and ranks third in career yards (3429) trailing only Dee Dowis (3612) and Asher Clark (3594). Five of Baylor's six losses this season came against AP-Top 25 ranked opponents. It is Baylor’s most losses to ranked teams in a single season since 2008 (6 losses). Air Force has a lot to play for after underperforming preseason expectations as the favorite to win the MWC starting with the fact that they have a shot at a 10-win season, which is an impressive accomplishment at a service academy. And it would be a nice footnote to the fact they've already claimed the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy after beating Army and Navy. Air Force is 19-10 SU and 19-9-1 ATS (68%) following a game in which they allowed 250 or fewer yard sand 14 or fewer points and 7-0 ATS if priced as a dog and 4-0 ATS if involving a bowl game venue. Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun has been at the head of the program since the start of the 2007 season and has played in 11 bowl games. When the total has been between 42.5 and 49 points, his Falcons are 24-10 SU and 25-9 ATS for 74% winning bets and 9-3 ATS when priced as a dog. |
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12-21-22 | Hornets +8.5 v. Clippers | Top | 105-126 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
Hornets vs Clippers 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Hornets plus the points Betting on road dogs from game number 15 on to the end of the regular season that are coming off a road win and has won 25 to 40% of their games on the season and facing a winning record team has earned an 88-42-5 ATS record good for 67% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. |
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12-21-22 | South Alabama v. Western Kentucky +3.5 | 23-44 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
Western Kentucky vs South Alabama 3.5% 7-Unit best bet on Western Kentucky plus the points and if your money line price is at +150 or higher then add a 1-Unit amount. That is WHY this is graded as a 7-unit bet on the spread. If you want to be all 8-units getting the points that is a perfectly sound strategy too. Betting on teams playing in the post season bowl slate, is receiving less than 40% of the tickets bet and is a dog between 3.5 and 9.5 points has earned a 110-68-1 ATS record good for 62% winning bets. A variation of this algorithm has earned a 62-30-2 ATS record for 68% winning bets and instructs to be on dog between 3.5 and 9.5 points with a closing total of 70 or fewer points, receiving 33% or fewer of the tickets bet in the bowl game. South Alabama is one of six current FBS teams that has never won a bowl game with the other non-winners Charlotte, Texas State, ULM, UMass and UTSA. Western Kentucky, meanwhile, has scored 45+ points in a bowl game four times since 2014, most in the FBS over that span. WKU leads the FBS with 63 offensive plays of 25+ yards this season. The Hilltoppers have gained at least 350 yards on offense in 27 consecutive games marking the third-longest active streak in the FBS behind only UCLA with 33 and UTSA with 29. |
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12-21-22 | Mavs -3 v. Wolves | Top | 104-99 | Win | 100 | 2 h 22 m | Show |
Mavericks vs Timberwolves 4% 8-Unit Best bet on the Mavericks minus the points Betting on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points and facing a foe that they lost to in the most recent meeting and that foe scored at least 100 points and that host is coming off a home win in which they scored 115 or more points has earned a 44-19-3 ATS record good for 70% winning bets. Bet the Mavericks |
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12-21-22 | Blazers -3.5 v. Thunder | Top | 98-101 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 20 m | Show |
Trail Blazers vs Thunder 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Trailblazers minus the points. The same betting system that is active for the bet on the Mavericks is also active for this bet on the Portland Trail Blazers. |
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12-19-22 | Rams +7 v. Packers | Top | 12-24 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
LA Rams vs Green Bay Packers 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Rams plus the seven points and sprinkle a little bit more on the money line. When the league's slate of prime-time games came out in the spring, a mid-December matchup between the Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams and the three-time defending NFC North champion Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field sounded like TV ratings gold. No one though this would end up being a meaningless matchup, BUT it is the defending Super Bowl Champion Rams that have been playing with a sense of pride and ambition going with the starters the have available. he Rams have just 13 points on their 14 total takeaways this season, half as many points as any other team (Denver ranks 31st with 26 takeaway points). The Packers have allowed 35 giveaway points on their 17 turnovers this season, tied for fifth fewest in the league. So, if the4re was ever a game in which the Rams will take full advantage of Packers Aaron Rogers turnovers, it will be tonight. Head coach McVay is 17-7-1 ATS in game splayed in December. There have been two times in the Super Bowl era where a quarterback came off the bench, threw for 200+ yards, rallied from 13+ points down to win and snapped his team's winless streak of six or more games. One was Baker Mayfield's Browns debut in 2018, and the other was his Rams debut last week and that is impressive to say the least. He and the Rams have everything to prove on the field tonight, especially Mayfield. From the predictive model the Rams are 26-11-4 ATS for 70% winning bets when gaining 5.0 or more yards per play and have the same or fewer turnovers than their foes in games played over the last five seasons and 7-3 ATS when priced as the uderdog. |
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12-19-22 | Connecticut +12.5 v. Marshall | Top | 14-28 | Loss | -113 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
Marshall vs UCONN 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on UCONN plus the points UConn (6-6 SU, 9-3 ATS, 4-7-1 O=U)) is bowl-eligible for the first time since 2015 under first-year coach Jim Mora Jr. Before losing their regular season finale to Army, the Huskies had a stretch of five wins in six games and covered the spread in all six, capped off by an upset victory over then-ranked No. 19 Liberty. Games playing on a neutral field that has a worse win percentage then the foe and are priced between a 10- and 14.5-point underdog are 19-11 ATS for 63% winning bets over the past five seasons. If the game occurs after Week 12 these double-digit dogs have earned a 14-7 ATS for 67% winning bets. |
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12-15-22 | 49ers v. Seahawks +3 | Top | 21-13 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
San Francisco vs Seattle 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Seattle Seahawks plus the points 4% 8-Unit best bet Over the posted total Let’s get right to the meat and potatoes. This betting system has earned an outstanding 35-13-3 ATS record good for 73% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The game is lined between the 3’s, one of the teams, Seattle, has lost three consecutive games to the spread, facing a foe that has won two or more consecutive games against the spread. If it is a divisional matchup, then it soars to a remarkable and highly profitable 18-1-3 ATS for 95% winning bets over the previous 10 seasons and has not lost ATS since the start of the 2015 season going 15-0-2 ATS for 100% winners. The total is backed by a situational angle producing 67% winning bets on a 22-11-1 record over the past 30 seasons. Betting the Over when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points with one of the teams, 49ers, covered the spread in three consecutive games and has won between 60 and 75% of their games on the season and facing a winning record team. |
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12-15-22 | 49ers v. Seahawks OVER 43 | Top | 21-13 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
San Francisco vs Seattle 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Seattle Seahawks plus the points 4% 8-Unit best bet Over the posted total Let’s get right to the meat and potatoes. This betting system has earned an outstanding 35-13-3 ATS record good for 73% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The game is lined between the 3’s, one of the teams, Seattle, has lost three consecutive games to the spread, facing a foe that has won two or more consecutive games against the spread. If it is a divisional matchup, then it soars to a remarkable and highly profitable 18-1-3 ATS for 95% winning bets over the previous 10 seasons and has not lost ATS since the start of the 2015 season going 15-0-2 ATS for 100% winners. The total is backed by a situational angle producing 67% winning bets on a 22-11-1 record over the past 30 seasons. Betting the Over when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points with one of the teams, 49ers, covered the spread in three consecutive games and has won between 60 and 75% of their games on the season and facing a winning record team. |
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12-15-22 | Heat -4 v. Rockets | Top | 111-108 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
Miami Heat vs Houston Rockets 5% 10-Unit Best Bet on the Heat minus the points Despite being the youngest team in the Association, the Rockets are coming off two tenacious defensive efforts holding the Bucks to just 36% shooting and the Suns to 32% shooting, which was the worst the Suns have shot since October 18, 2017. The Heat are playing without their leading scorer Jimmy Butler, but Tyler Herro matched a career high with 35 points including nine made 3-pointers. The Heat got off to a horrid start, but not find themselves just one-game under .500 and are playing great team basketball right now. Despite Herros 35-point effort, the Heat had six players score in double figures. This is the third game of a four-game road trip for the Heat, who are also playing on back-to-back nights. They won back-t-back road games for the first time this season and with the very weak San Antonio Spurs on deck, they know they can win all four games. Betting on favorites between 3.5 and 9.5 points and facing as team that had 13 more turnovers than their opponent in their previous game has earned a 76-27-2 ATS record good for 74% winning bets over the past 25 seasons and 18-7 ATS good for 72% winning bets over the past five seasons. If our team is playing on back-to-back nights, the record soars to a highly profitable 14-3 ATS record good for 82% winning bets over the past 25 seasons and is 7-1 ATS 88% since 2015. |
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12-11-22 | Dolphins v. Chargers +3 | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
Dolphins vs Chargers 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Chargers plus the points Betting on underdogs that forcing an average of fewer than one turnover per game on the season and coming off a horrid game in which they committed three or more turnovers has earned a 46-18-3 ATS mark good for 72% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If our team is playing at home as a dog against a conference foe our record improves to 13-4-2 ATS for 77% winning bets since 2013. Teams, like the Dolphins, that had a five gamer win streak halted with a double-digit road loss are just 13-24-4 ATS for 35% winning bets so fading these teams has won 65% ATS of bets placed. In these games if the total has been 50+ points, the Dolphins fit into an imperfect 0-5 ATS situation. |
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12-11-22 | Bucs +3.5 v. 49ers | Top | 7-35 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
Bucs vs 49ers 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Bucs plus the points Betting on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points facing an opponent that is coming off a two ATS wins priced as the favorite in each game, and with the dog coming off a home win has earned a 39-21-2 ATS mark good for 65% winning bets since 2010. Brady is 45-14 SU and 43-11-5 ATS when taking on a foe with the better record. Bucs are also 7-2-2 ATS coming off a game priced as the favorite and now installed as a dog spanning the past five seasons. If the Bus were favored, but failed to cover the spread in their previous game and now priced as the fog, they have gone 5-1 SUATS. Take the Bucs and sprinkle the money line a bit more. |
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12-11-22 | Vikings v. Lions -2 | Top | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 1 h 26 m | Show |
Minnesota vs Detroit 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Detroit Lions minus the points. Betting on favorites that have won three of their last four games and facing a foe that has won eight or more of their last 10 games has earned a 34-14-2 ATS record good for 71% winning bets since 2010. If the total is less than 55 points, the favorite has gone 32-12-1 ATS for 73% winning bets since 2010. The last four games between the Lions and Vikings have all been decided by four or fewer points, which is tied for the longest such streak in series history matching four straight from 1963-65. It's also the longest active streak between any two divisional opponents in the NFL right now. In this situation, the home teams that also has fewer wins than the foe has earned a 14-5-1 ATS mark good for 74% winning bets since 2010. |
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12-11-22 | Eagles v. Giants +7 | Top | 48-22 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 25 m | Show |
Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants 4% best bet on the Giants plus the points and sprinkle the money line Bet on hoe dogs facing an elite opponent that has averaging 5.75 or more yards-per-play and the favorite has gained 450 or more total yards in each of their past two games has earned a 32-11 ATS record good for 74% winning bets since 1990 and if our dog is priced as a 3.5-to-9.5-point underdog, they have gone 10-1-1 ATS for 91% winning bets since 1990. In last week’s game against Washington, Daniel Jones became the first quarterback in the Super Bowl era to complete 80.0 percent of his passes on 30 or more attempts while also rushing for 70 or more yards in a game. Teams that have won their first five road games of the regular season, priced as a road favorite in the current game and average fewer than 1 turnover per game are just 6-13-1 ATS. |
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12-11-22 | Jets +10 v. Bills | Top | 12-20 | Win | 100 | 1 h 25 m | Show |
New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills 4% 8-Unit best Bet on the Jets plus the generous amount of points and just in case a sprinkle on the money line is warranted. Betting on road dogs of 3.5 to 10.5 points facing a foe that forced no more than a single turnover has earned these dogs a 145-85 ATS record good fort 64% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. Home favorites of 3.5 to 10.5 points that forced no more than a single turnover in their previous game and are playing with same season revenge against a divisional foe are just 10-21-1 ATS for 32% winning bets – so facing these favorite has earned a 68% win rate. |
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12-10-22 | Navy v. Army UNDER 32.5 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -109 | 53 h 59 m | Show |
Army vs Navy 4% 8-Unit Best Bet Under the posted total If it isn’t broke do not try to fix it. I like betting 50% preflop Under the total and then look for a decent start by both teams and look to add the second 50% at 37.5 or more points. It is difficult, mentally to bet an Under priced at 32.5 points, but the numbers once again support this bet and it is just one bet over the course of a marathon season. Bet the Under when the total is 50 or fewer points and a matchup of two teams averaging 225 or more rushing yards per game has earned a 50-25-2 record good for 67% winning Under bets since 2006 and 37-14-2 Under good for 73% winning bets since 2015. |
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12-08-22 | Nuggets +1.5 v. Blazers | Top | 121-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
Denver Nuggets vs Portland Trail Blazers 4% 8-Unit Best bet on the Denver Nuggets Betting on road favorites, playing with same season revenge and coming off a home loss, and not playing on back-to-back nights has earned a 52-19 SU record good for 73% winners and 49-22 ATS good for 69% winning bets since 2015. If our team is not playing on B2B nights and the host has MORE rest, our team has gone 56-24 ATS for 70% winning bets since 2015. This system is11-3 ATS good for 79% winning bets over the past two seasons. Portland is 16-28-1 ATS in hoe games and when facing a solid shooting team making 46% or more of their shot attempts on the season spanning the last two seasons. |
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12-08-22 | Jets v. Blues +107 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
Winnipeg vs St. Louis 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on St, Louis using the money line Betting on home teams using the money line that have played three consecutive games in which 8 or more goals were scored in each game and taking on a foe that has allowed two or fewer goals in two consecutive games has earned a 23-9 record for 72% winning bets averaging a -111 money line bet and producing a 42% ROI since 2006 and 11-2 record for 85% winners last five seasons averaging a -111 money line wager and producing a terrific 65% ROI. Bet on St. Louis |
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12-07-22 | Canucks v. Sharks UNDER 6.5 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
Vancouver vs San Jose 4% 8-Unit Best Bet UNDER Betting Under when the total is 6 or more goals with a home team coming off a road game where both teams scored three or more goals, is a struggling team winning 30% or less of their games and with the game taking place in the first half of the season. From the predictive models the Under is 34-12 in road games when they have scored two or fewer goals. |
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12-07-22 | Celtics -1.5 v. Suns | Top | 125-98 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
Boston Celtics vs Phoenix Suns 5% 10-Unit Best Bet on the Boston Celtics Let’s get right into the meat and potatoes. Betting on teams lined between a 3.5 point favorite and a 3.5-point underdog and facing an opponent that is outscoring their opponents by 6 or more PPG on the season and coming off three consecutive games that saw at least 220 points scored in each one has earned an outstanding and highly profitable 47-19 ATS record good for 71% winning bets over the past five seasons. If our team has one day of rest, they have earned a 43-15 ATS mark good for 74% winning bets last 5 seasons. If our team has had the same number or more days of rest than the opponent, the record has improved to 42-17 ATS for 71% over the past 5 seasons. Chris Paul may be playing for the Suns tonight after having missed the previous 14 games since injuring his heel in a game at Philadelphia November 7. The Celtics have won and covered seven of its last eight games. Boston’s latest victory was Monday's 116-110 win at Toronto and covered the spread as 1.5 point underdogs. The Celtics were without center Al Horford (back) and guard Malcolm Brogdon (illness) for that game but received 31 points and 12 rebounds from Jayson Tatum and 22 points and eight rebounds from Jaylen Brown. It was Tatum's team-high 12th double-double of the season, and the 15th consecutive game Brown has scored at least 20 points. Celtics are 14-4 ATS in road games after having won at least six of their previous games over the past two seasons. Celtics are 21-11 ATS for 66% winners in road games where they have been priced between a -3 favorite and +3 underdog over the past two seasons. |
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12-07-22 | Eastern Kentucky +28.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 49-84 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 2 m | Show |
Eastern Kentucky vs Tennessee 4% 8-Unit bets bet on Eastern Kentucky plus the points Eastern Kentucky is 22 - 9 against the spread when facing teams averaging 40 or more rebounds per game. Eastern Kentucky is 35 - 16 ATS in road games when facing solid defensive teams allowing 64 or fewer points per game. |
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12-01-22 | Bills v. Patriots +3.5 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
Buffalo vs New England 5% 10-Unit Best Bet on the Patriots plus the points and a bit more sprinkle on the moneyline. Mac Jones threw touchdowns of 37 and 34 yards in the Thanksgiving loss. Jones entered the game with three career TD passes of at least 30 yards with one of those coming in 2022 prior to playing the Vikings. This is a certain sign that the Patriots are opening up the playbook and looking to stretch the defense vertically using a variety of 20+ yard routes. This is in turn will open up the ground game between the tackles and also using the traditional old-school trap block running plays. If Buffalo moves to a cover-1 shell, then no doubt in my mind you will see Jones use play action to freeze the linebackers and the look for crossing routes over the middle of field for high percentage catch and carry receptions. The injury bug has migrated around the Bills' defense this season. The latest to be affected is top pass rusher Von Miller after he was ruled out with a knee injury. Miller leads the team with eight sacks and has been the veteran leader on the defensive unit. His absence creates an enormous hole for a unit that has allowed just 18.1 points per game this season, the fifth fewest allowed in the NFL. Betting on underdogs that are taking on a favorite that is outgaining their opponents by .75 or more YPPL and have averaged 400 or more total yards over their last three games has produced a remarkable 51-15-2 ATS mark good for 77% winning bets over the past five seasons. If the favorite won the previous meeting, which the Bills did, the system improves to 34-9 ATS for 80% winning bets over the past five seasons. From the predictive model of mine, the Patriots are expected to score 24 or more points and average at least 6.5 yards per pass attempt. In past HOME games in which they met or exceeded these performance measures has led them to an outstanding 85-4 SU record and 69-20 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets since 1998 and since Tom Brady left Foxborough, they are an even better 16-1 SU and 15-2 ATS (88%). |
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11-28-22 | Steelers v. Colts OVER 39.5 | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 2 h 48 m | Show |
Pittsburgh vs Colts 4% 8-Unit Best Bet OVER the total Betting the Over when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points with one of the teams, Pittsburgh in this case coming off a close loss of 7 or fewer points to a divisional rival, from week 5 on out has earned a 46-25 Over good for 65% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Tomlin is 13-4 Over off a close loss to a divisional foe of not more than 7 points. |
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11-27-22 | Bears v. Jets -6.5 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
Chicago Bears vs New York Jets 5% 10-Unit Best Bet on the Jets minus the points I waited to release this opportunity given the weather. It is a near certainty that it will start raining at the beginning of this game and will continue to rain throughout the entire game, which I believe favors the Jets even more than if the sun was shining brightly and not a could in the sky. The Bears defense has been horrific allowing 35 PPG over their last four games and the move to Mike White under center is a monster upgrade to Zach Wilson’s recent performances and whining about it to the media. Against the Bears defense in the rain, Mike White will not have to win the game on his arm and they can elect to run the ball first and foremost. Running plays also include the easy to complete passes in the flat and the keep the chains moving. Do not be surprised, though, if play action opens up the opportunity to throw the over-the-top vertical pass routes. White has a great arm – even in the rain – and once the Bears succumb from a Cover-2 shell and bring those safeties up to the line of scrimmage to defend the run, White will have any of receivers in man coverage and a high percentage completion percentage opportunity. Betting on favorites that are facing a team that has gone over the total by 30 or more points in their last five games and has won not more than 40% of their games on the season has earned a 36-15-3 ATS record good for 71% winning bets over the past five seasons. Bears are 1-6 ATS last 3 seasons following back-to-back games in which 50 or more points were scored. From the predictive model, the Jets are 25-2 SU and 22-5 ATS (82%) winners in home games, gaining at least 5.5 yards per play and allowing 17 or fewer points. The Bears are 1-51 SU, 6-45-1 ATS (12%) when allowing 5.5 or more yards per play and scoring 17 or fewer points. |
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11-26-22 | Notre Dame v. USC -4 | Top | 27-38 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
Notre Dame vs USC 5% MAX 10-Unit Best bet on Southern Cal minus the points From the predictive model, we are expecting USC to score at least 31 points, gain at least 100+ more yards of total offense and have the same or fewer turnovers. USC is 48-0 SU and 42-6 ATS (88%) when meeting or exceeding these performance measures since 2006 and 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS the past five seasons. Betting on home favorites between 4 and 10 points in weeks 10 on out and facing a foe that has gone Over the total by 49 or more points in their last five games has earned a 15-4 SU (79%) and 14-5 ATS mark good for 74% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. |
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11-20-22 | Chiefs v. Chargers +5.5 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
Kansas City Chiefs vs LA Chargers 4% 8-Unit Best bet on the Chargers plus the points and sprinkle the money line a bit too. Betting on dogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points that are facing an opponent whose defense has not forced a single turnover in their past two games has earned a 49-21 ATS record good for 70% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the game is taking place in the second half of the season, these dogs soar to 31-12 ATS for 72% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The Chiefs are just 2-15 against the spread after gaining 400 or more total yards in three consecutive games. They are also 2-16 against the spread after gaining .an average of 450 or more total yards per game over their past three games. From the predictive model we are expecting the charges to gain at least 80 rushing yards and have the same or fewer turnovers. In past games in which the Chargers met or exceeded these performance measures has lead them to a 25-7 straight up record for 78% winning bets and 22-8 - 2 for 73% winning bets against the spread. |
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11-20-22 | Cowboys -1 v. Vikings | Top | 40-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
Dallas Cowboys vs Minnesota Vikings 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points or use the moneyline if it is a cheaper price at your sportsbook. The Dallas Cowboys are 9-1 for 90% winning bets and covering the spread by an average of 12.4 points per game when facing a defense that is allowing 225 or more passing yards per game in games played over the last two seasons. The Cowboys are 7-2 for 78% winning bets covering the spread by an average of 7.50 points per bet when facing a defense that is allowing 7.00 or more yards per pass attempt in games played over the last two seasons. They are also a perfect 6-0 covering the spread by an average of 10 points per game when coming off a terrible defensive effort in which they allowed six or more yards per play in games played over the last two seasons. From the predictive model we are expecting Dallas to gain at least 125 rushing yards average more yards gained per play than the Vikings and have the same or fewer turnovers than the Vikings. In past games in which the Cowboys met or exceeded these performance measures has LED them to a perfect 16- hi0 record and 16-0 against the spread covering each bet by an average of 13.5 points per game. The Vikings in the same situation are 0-9 straight up and against the spread and losing to the spread by an average of 11 points per game. |
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11-20-22 | Lions +3 v. Giants | Top | 31-18 | Win | 100 | 101 h 3 m | Show |
Detroit Lions vs New York Giants 5% 10-Unit Max bet Game of the Year 1:00 EST, Sunday, November 20,l 2022 If you have watched me for any length of time – even just a week – you already know how much I emphasize discipline. This is a 5% MAX Best Bet. That does not mean you consider betting a 20% amount, for instance. Bet with your heads and not over it and may all the wins be yours is my slogan and moto. This sia very strong betting opportunity and one that I do believe strongly will win, BUT BUTBUT please remember there is no such thing as a LOCK or guaranteed to win bet. As much research and supporting analytics are solidly behind the Lions, they could fail to cover the spread. Betting on teams that average 30 or fewer rushing attempts per game, are coming off an upset road win, had no more than a 4-minute time of possession advantage in that upset win, and now facing a foe that averages at least 32 minutes in time of possession has earned a 34-33 SU and 42-24-1 ATS for 64% winning bets over the previous 15 seasons. If our team is facing a foe with a win percentage of .500 or better, our team soars a bit higher to produce a 28-24 SU record, 36-15-1 ATS for 71% winners over the past 15 seasons. If our team (obviously the Lions) is the underdog, they go to 14-20 SU and 24-9-1 ATS for 73% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. Now for the drumroll please. If our dog is priced at no more than 4-points, they have gone on to earn an 11-2 SU record and 12-1 ATS mark good for 92.3% winning bets over the past 15 seasons and is on a 7-0 ATS win streak since 2014. From the predictive model, we are looking for the Lions to average .5 or more yards per play than the Giants, average at least 7 yards per pass attempt, and have the same or fewer turnovers. In past games since 2015 in which the Lions met or exceeded these performance measures has led them to a highly profitable 15-3 SU (83%) mark and 17-1 ATS (94% winning bets. The Giants are 1-19 SU and 3-17 ATS (15%) when allowing 7 or more yards per pass attempt, gained.5 or fewer yards per play, and had the same or more turnovers in games played since 2015 and 0-12 SUATS since 2017. |
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11-20-22 | Jets +3.5 v. Patriots | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 41 m | Show |
New York Jets vs New England Patriots 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Jets plus the points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line at any price above +150 Betting on underdogs between 3 and 9.5 points that are coming off a home win and facing a foe that has won and covered the spread priced as a favorite in each of their last two games has earned a highly profitable 39-19-2 ATS for 67% winning bets since 2013. If the host has a lower win percentage than the guest, the home team is a nearly imperfect 1-7-1 ATS for 12% or facing these home favs has produced an exceptional 88% winning bets since 2010. |
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11-20-22 | Bears v. Falcons -2.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 3 h 40 m | Show |
Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Falcons minus the points, or you like the moneyline that is valid too. Betting on any team that is facing a team that has won between 25 to 40% of their games on the season and has gone Over the posted totals by a combined 35 or more points over their last three games has produced a remarkable 23-7 SU (77%) record and 23-5-2 ATS (82%) winning bets over the past five seasons. |
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11-16-22 | Eastern Michigan v. Kent State -7 | 31-24 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
Eastern Michigan vs Kent State 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on Kent State –7.5 points or better Betting on home teams from Week 8 on out that are averagig between 190 and 230 rushing yards per game and held their previous opponent to less than 100 rushing yards and facing an opponent that is averaging 140 to 190 rushing yards per game has earned a highy profitable 45-14 SU (76%) record and 40-16-3 ATS (71.4%) record since 2015. If a favorite between 3.5 and 9.5 points has produced a 10-1 SU and 8-2 ATS (80%) winning bets record. The predictive mode shows an 83% probability that Kent State will score at least 31 points and have the same or fewer turnovers as Eastern Michigan. In past games in which Kent State met these performance measures they have gone on to earn a 17-4 SU (81%) and 16-5 ATS (76%) record since 2015. EMU is 2-28 (7%) and 7-22-1 ATS (24%) when allowing 31 or ore points and having the same or more turnovers than their opponent sice 2015. |
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11-13-22 | Canucks +197 v. Bruins | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 10 m | Show |
Vancouver vs Boston 4% 8-Unit best Bet on Vancouver Betting on underdogs that have lost four or five of their previous 6 games and now facing a scorching hot team that has won 8 or more of their last 10 games has earned a 117-134 record, but by averaging a +171-underdog bet has produced a highly profitable 22% Roi over the past five seasons making 65 units in the process. If our dog is priced between 135 and 195 the results have been an even better 51-52 SU and producing a 28% ROI over the past five seasons. |
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11-13-22 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff v. Mississippi State -24.5 | Top | 47-80 | Win | 100 | 3 h 57 m | Show |
Arkansas Pine Bluff vs Mississippi State 4% 8-Unit best bet on the MST minus the points ARK is just 11-27 ATS when on the road and coming off three non-conference games in a row and 9-22 ATS after covering the spread in 2 ro more consecutive games. State is 45-22-3 ATS in home games with a posted total between 135 and 139.5 points. |
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11-13-22 | Jaguars +9.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 33 m | Show |
Jaguars vs Chiefs 4% 8-Unit best Bet on the Jaguars and add a sprinkle to the moneyline Jacksonville has to feel much better snapping its five-game straight-up and pointspread losing streak in dramatic fashion, rallying from a 17-0 deficit against Las Vegas Raiders as QB Trevor Lawrence had an extremely efficient game (25 of 31 passing for 235 yds. with a TD and no interceptions plus rushing for 53 yards) and RB Travis Etienne turned in his third straight 100-yard game and now has 379 YR for 5.7 yards per rush attempt and four touchdowns in his last three games. Betting against favorites in games played in November that have failed to cover the spread in three of their last four games has earned a 32-17-3 ATS record good for 65% winning bets last five season and if that favorite is lined between 3.5 and 9.5 points, our dogs play even better with a 21-4 ATS record good for 84% winning bets. |
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11-13-22 | Browns v. Dolphins -3 | Top | 17-39 | Win | 100 | 2 h 33 m | Show |
Browns vsDolphins 1:00 EDT 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Dolphins The Dolphins have scored at least 30 points in their last two games, including a 35-32 win in Chicago in Week 9. The last time Miami had a longer streak was 2009 which lasted four games.The Dolphins are undefeated with Tua playing the complete game and I see that trend continuing again today.The Dolphins are averaging 7.0 yards per play on 1st and 10 this season, best in the NFL.The Browns defense is quite good, but Tua is far too smart and creative to be consistently stopped on first downs against anyone. Betting on favorites in a game in which both defenses allowing between 23 and 27.5 points per game, and with our favorite coming off back-to-back games in which 50 or more points were scored in each game has earned a 38-17-1 ATS record good for 69% winning bets since 2010. |
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11-13-22 | Broncos +2.5 v. Titans | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 32 m | Show |
Broncos vs Titans 4% 8-UNIT best bet on the Broncos Betting on road dogs in a game involving both teams committing 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game on the season and with the favored team coming off a game in which they forced zero turnovers has earned a 36-16-1 ATS mark good for 69% winning bets over the past five seasons. If our dog is coming off a game in which tye converted 25% or fewer of their third down attempts has gopneto earn a 9-3-1 ATS mark good for 75% winning bets. |
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11-13-22 | Texans +5 v. Giants | Top | 16-24 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 31 m | Show |
Texans vs Giants 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Texans Betting on road dogs in a game involving both teams committing 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game on the season and with the favored team coming off a game in which they forced zero turnovers has earned a 36-16-1 ATS mark good for 69% winning bets over the past five seasons. If our dog is coming off a game in which they converted 25% or fewer of their third down attempts has gone to earn a 9-3-1 ATS mark good for 75% winning bets. Giants are 4-7 ATS (36%) when taking on a foe that is completing at least 60% of their pass attempts in the second half of each of the past three seasons. From the predictive model, the Texans as a road dog are 16-2 ATS when holding their opponents to 21 or fewer points and forcing them into 2 or more turnovers. |
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11-10-22 | 76ers +1.5 v. Hawks | Top | 95-104 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
Philadelphia 76ers vs Atlanta Hawks 5% 10-Unit Max Best bet on the 76ers Let’s get right to it, shall we? Betting on road underdogs, who lost to the current foe by three or fewer points in their last meeting, and the foe just lost a game priced as a favorite has earned a 35-10 ATS record good for 78% winning bets since 2017. If our dog is priced as a 4 or fewer-point underdog they have earned an 11-3 ATS record good for 79% winning bets since 2017. This is the first of two games against each other with the second game taking place Saturday in Philadelphia. Joel Embiid returned to the 76ers Monday having fully recovered from the flu while the Hawks Trey Young is back at full strength recovered from a lower leg injury. Embiid scored 33 points and 10 boards marking his fourth double-double of the young season. Not the same for Young, who shot horribly poor (10-for-28) in a 125-119 home loss last night. The 76ers bench is significantly better than the Hawks edition, who were outscored 43-19 last night. James Hardin remains out nursing a tendon strain in his right foot, but Tyrese Maxey, despite being so young, is learning quickly how to run the point for four quarters and doing it quite well. From the predictive mode, we are expecting the 76ers to score at least 111 points and make more 3-pointers than the Hawks. IN past games since 2017 in which the 76ers met these performance measures has seen them go on to a 96-16 SU record, 85-25-2 ATS (77%) record. When the Hawks have allowed 11 or more points and made fewer three-pointers than their opponent has seen them produce an 18-86 SU record and 23-81 ATS for 22% since 2017. |
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11-06-22 | Chargers -3 v. Falcons | Top | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 5 h 45 m | Show |
Chargers vs Falcons 1:00 EDT 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Chargers Betting on favorites including pick-em in a matchup in which both teams are allowing an average of 23 to 27.5 PPG on the season and with the favorite coming off back-to-back games in which 50 or more points were scored in each one has earned a 56-29-1 ATS record good for 66% winning bets. Betting on road favorites that are gaining at least 250 passing yards per game and are coming off a game in which they gained 5.75 or fewer passing yards per attempt has earned a 44-10 ATS mark good for 82% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. Plus, if our road favorite is coming off their BYE week, they then have gone a perfect 5-0 ATS. Falcons have been winning with smoke and mirrors having been outgained in total yards in 6 of their last 7 games. These pretenders have gone 28-48 ATS when priced as a dog with a win percentage of 50% or higher. |
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10-29-22 | USC -14 v. Arizona | Top | 45-37 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
USC vs Arizona 5% 10-UNIT NAX Best Bet on the USC Trojans minus the points USC has won nine straight meetings with Arizona, with the Wildcats' last win coming at home in 2012. The Trojans have won 15 of their 19 all-time visits to Tucson. Jordan Addison had seven catches for 106 yards and hauled in his seventh touchdown of the season, tied with Arizona's Jacob Cowing for the Pac-12 lead. Addison's next reception will mark the 200th of his college career. He is a transfer from Pittsburgh and currently ranks fifth among active FBS players with 199 career receptions and 2844 receiving yards, while his 28 career touchdowns rank second to UTSA's Zakhari Franklin, who has 29. The USC offense ranks ninth averaging 40.4 PPG and 8th with a 0.589 points-per-play ration in the nation. That explosive offense is going up against a defense in Arizona that ranks 123rd in the nation with a 0.554 points-per-play allowed and 124th allowing 37.7 PPG. The Wildcats have allowed 6.94 yards per play this season, third highest in the FBS behind Charlotte (7.36) and South Florida (7.00). Arizona has allowed 5.8 yards per rush this season, fourth most in the FBS, but held Washington to just 79 yards (2.7 yards per rush) in its last game. Betting on road favorites of 13 or more points that is facing a foe that is allowing 31 o more PPG and with that opponent coming off two consecutive games in which 60 or more points in total were scored has earned an outstanding 106-57-1 SYS record good for 65% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. Plus, if being played from Week 9 on out and against a conference foe has improved the results to a 73-6 SU record and 55-24 ASTS for 70% winning bets. Take USC minus the points |
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10-26-22 | Lakers v. Nuggets OVER 227 | Top | 99-110 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
LA Lakers vs Denver Nuggets 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Under Betting the Under when the total is 210 or more points in a matchup between two teams getting outscored by 7 or more points per game has earned a highly profitable 29-19 Under record for 61% winning Under bets over the past 10 seasons. If either team allowed 1`25 or more points in their previous game, the Under then has gone 13-3 for 81% winning bets over the the past three seasons. |
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10-26-22 | Oilers v. Blues +105 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
Edmonton vs St. Louis 4% 8-Unit best bet on the St. Louis Blues on the moneyline The Blues fall into a great betting system that is active tonight. Betting on home teams using the moneyline facing a foe coming off a win by three or more goals and with our home team coming off a loss by three or more goals has gone 181-130 for 58% and a nice 12% ROI over the past five seasons. If our home team is lined between a –125 and a +125 dog, they have produced a 68-50 record for an even high profit and a nice 18% ROI over the last five years. |
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10-26-22 | Hornets v. Knicks -7.5 | Top | 131-134 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
Charlotte Hornets vs NY Knicks 4% 8-Unit Best bet on the Knicks minus the points Bet on favorites between 3.5 and 9.5 points that are facing a team that covered the spread by 24 or more points in their previous game has earned a 62-33-2 ATS record good for 65% winning bets over the past five seasons. If our favorite is not playing on back-to-back nights, they have gone on to a 55-27-1 ATS record and 67% winning bets over the past five seasons. |
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10-26-22 | Hawks v. Pistons +7.5 | Top | 118-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
Atlanta Hawks vs Detroit Pistons 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the pistons plus the points Pistons are playing on back-to-back nights and coming off three straight road losses, but these negative results put the Pistons into an excellent contrarian best bet opportunity tonight. Betting on teams playing on back-to-back nights and have lost three straight road games have earned a 32-30 SU record and a highly profitable 45-15-2 ATS mark for 75% winning bets since the start of the 2016 season. There is more data drilling to do though. If our team is installed as a dog between 3.5 and 9.5 points, they have gone to an outstanding money-making 19-3 ATS record good for 86.4% winning bets since 2016. In a rare scheduling glitch these two teams will play two consecutive games against each other in Detroit starting tonight with a day off Thursday and then the second game being played Friday. Thus far, the Hawks have been reliant on starters for most of their scoring. Trae Young leads the club in scoring (25.3 points per game) and assists (11.7). Backcourt partner Murray is second in both categories (19.7, 8.3) while grabbing 7.3 rebounds per game and nabbing 3.3 steals per outing. Collins is averaging a double-double (19.0 points, 10.3 rebounds), but the highest-scoring reserve, Onyeka Okongwu, is averaging just 8.7 points. Charlotte's reserves outscored Atlanta's bench 52-28 in the Hawks 126-109 road loss Sunday. The Detroit bench is much better than the Hawks right now giving them a great opportunity to earn an upset win. |
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10-24-22 | Bears +9.5 v. Patriots | Top | 33-14 | Win | 100 | 3 h 26 m | Show |
Chicago Bears vs Patriots 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Chicago Bears plus the points Betting on road underdogs that are facing a foe that is outgaining opponents by 1.25 or more yards per pass attempt, after gaining seven or more passing yards per attempt in their last game has earned an outstanding 73-38-3 for 65.7% ATS winners over the last five seasons. If the home favorite held their previous opponent seven or more points UNDER their team total, these teams are just 3-9 ATS for 25%. So, fading them produced a 75% winning angle. A victory Monday night would be the 325th of his career - including the playoffs - and break a tie with Bears founder George Halas for the second-most wins by a head coach in NFL history. Hall of Famer Don Shula at 347 is the only coach with more. At age 70 and in his 23rd season with New England, Belichick became one of four people to coach at least 400 games with a single team, along with Halas (506 with Chicago), Tom Landry (454 with Dallas) and Shula (422 with Miami). Among that group, Belichick's winning percentage (.716) is the highest. He is 287-114 as New England's coach, including playoffs. The Bears rank third against the pass, and it is not just because teams are running at will against a team that is near the bottom of the NFL in stopping the rush. Chicago has more interceptions (five) than touchdown passes allowed (four) and has held its opponents to a 79.9 rating. Safety Eddie Jackson has three interceptions after going two seasons without one. He had six in his 2018 All-Pro season and two more the following year when he was chosen for his second Pro Bowl. Jackson has had 13 interceptions since he debuted in 2017. |
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10-23-22 | Jets v. Broncos OVER 36.5 | Top | 16-9 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 59 m | Show |
Jets vs Broncos 4% best bet on the Over Betting the Over with a team, Broncos, coming off a close loss of three or fewer points to a divisional rival has produced a 100-64-5 record good for 61% winning bets over the past 10 seasons and if the total is priced between 35 and 42 points has seen the Over produce a 22-8-1 Over record good for 73% winning bets last 10 seasons. If this game is occurring after the first four weeks of the season, the Over is a remarkable money-making 19-4-1 for 83% winning bets. |
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10-23-22 | Browns +7 v. Ravens | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 2 h 56 m | Show |
Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens 1:00 EDT week 7 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Browns plus the points Betting on dogs between 3.5 and 7.5 points that are facing a divisional foe with a strong offense averaging 6.0 or more yards-per-play (YPPL) and outgained their previous opponent by at least 100 yards has earned a highly profitable 22-11 ATS mark good for 67% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The Browns have forced no more than one takeaway in nine straight games, the second-longest streak in franchise history behind a 13-game streak in 2017. However, there is a significant probability that the Ravens will commit 2+ turnovers in this game today per my predictive model. So, teams like the Browns in a road game against a divisional foe that force 2+ turnovers and have the same or fewer turnovers (win the turnover battle) have gone 20-16 SU and 28-8 ATS for 78% winning bets. |
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10-23-22 | Lions +7 v. Cowboys | Top | 6-24 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 55 m | Show |
Lions vs Cowboys 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Lions plus the pooints Situational Betting Algorithms Road dogs of 3.5 to 7.5 points that are coming off their BYE week have earned a solid 20-12 ATS record good for 63% winning bets since 2015. The Lions is the team targeted by this set of parameters and I would not hesitate to sprinkle the moneyline too. Situational Trends and Angles The Underdogs, who failed to make the playoffs last season are off to a solid 35-25-2 ATS (58%) this season. The Lions are 26-10 ATS when on the road and coming off a terrible loss of 14 or more points. The Lions are 7-0 ATS when on the road and coming off a double-digit loss in games played over the last two seasons. |
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10-23-22 | Packers v. Commanders +4 | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 2 h 54 m | Show | |
Packers vs Commanders 4% 8-Unit Best bet on the Commanders plus the points Betting on dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are facing a foe that has not forced an opponent turnover in two straight games has produced a 44-19-1 ATS record good for 70% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. With the Commanders coming off a game in which they committed zero turnovers moves this system to an impeccable 14-3 ATS mark for 82% winning bets. While Rodgers nurses a thumb injury on his throwing hand that is not expected to sideline the four-time MVP, Washington is turning to Taylor Heinicke at quarterback after starter Carson Wentz had surgery to repair a broken right ring finger. Heinicke started 15 games last season and quite frankly, he is a better general of the offense than Wentz. During LaFleur's tenure, the Packers are 37-1 when they force at least one turnover. But the defense has not produced any takeaways during this losing streak, and they have forced only four turnovers all season. |
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10-23-22 | Colts v. Titans UNDER 43 | Top | 10-19 | Win | 100 | 2 h 52 m | Show |
Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Under Betting the Under with a home team that averages 1.25 or fewer yrds per pass attempt and with their defense coming off three consecutive games allowing at least seven yards per pass attempt has produced a 47-24-1 Under record good for 67% wining bets over the past 10 seasons. Plus, if the total in these games was 45 or fewer points, the under won at a 72% clip on a 23-9 record. Titans are 6-0 Under following a win of 6 or fewer points. From the predictive models, the Colts are 53-7 Under when allowing 21 or fewer points and averaging between 6 and 7 yards per pass attempt since 2002 and a perfect 14-0 Under over the past 10 seasons. |
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10-22-22 | Minnesota v. Penn State -5 | Top | 17-45 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
Minnesota vs Penn State 7:30 PM EST 5% 10-Unit Best bet on the Penn State Nittany Lions minus the points There is news circulating from reliable sources that Minnesota quarterback Tanner Morgan will not be able to start tonight in Penn State’s annual white-out game set to start at 7:30 PM EST in Happy Valley. There is news too that PSU QB Sean Clifford may not start either coming off a very physical loss at Michigan last week. The difference here is I the backups and strongly favors PSU true freshman Drew Allar, who is a protype pro quarterback standing 6-5 and weighing in at 238 pounds. He has incredible leg strength and is hard to tackle pulling out of many would be tackler attempts. Most important is that he may be the best quarterback in the game today. He has appeared in four games this season completing 12 of 19 passes for 163 yards and two touchdowns. How in the world Ohio State let this player get out of their grasps is somewhat mind blowing. Rated as a five-star prospect by 247Sports and On3 and a four-star recruit by ESPN and Rivals...Rated the top quarterback prospect in the country and the No. 3 overall prospect by 247Sports.Named the 2021 Ohio Prep Sportswriters Association Mr. Football, State Offensive Player of the Year, Max Preps Ohio Player of the Year and a first-team all-state selection in Division I... Selected Greater Cleveland Conference Offensive Player of the Year, Ohio Prep Sportswriters Association Northeast Ohio Inland District Division I Offensive Player of the Year, Cleveland.com Offensive Player of the Year and Medina County MVP. As a junior and senior, was an Ohio Division I first team and Greater Cleveland Conference first team honoree. Completed 305-of-511 passes (60 percent) for 4,444 yards and 48 passing touchdowns his senior season, setting Medina County records for yards and touchdowns. PSU head coach James Franklin is 13-4 ATS after failing to cover the spread in three of the last four games. PSU is 40-20-2 ATS after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games. Minnesota is just 7-19 ATS as a road underdog between 3.5 and 7 points. |
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10-22-22 | Mississippi State v. Alabama UNDER 61.5 | Top | 6-30 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
Mississippi State vs Alabama 7:05 EDT 4% 8-Unit Under the total Betting the Under when the road team has a lower rank than the host and is a double-digit underdog has seen the Under go 47-27-3 for 64% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If our dog is a 17.5 or greater underdog, then the Under has gone 16-4 for 80% winning Under bets. |
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10-22-22 | Marshall v. James Madison -11.5 | 26-12 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
Marshall vs James Madison 4% 8-Unit bets bet on James Madison minus the points 3:30 EDT Marshall is just 24-45 ATS after having lost two of their last three games in the last 20 seasons and 2-9 ATS over the last five seasons. After shocking Notre Dame in a 26-21 win in Week 2 the Herd has been stumbling losing 3 of their last 4 and the last four games to the spread. James Madison is coming off their first loss of the season and are 5-1 SUATS. |
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10-22-22 | UCLA +6.5 v. Oregon | Top | 30-45 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
UCLA vs Oregon 3:30 EDT 4% 8-Unit best bet on the UCLA Bruins plus the points Well, this is a big showdown with monumental consequences for the loser of this PAC-12 matchup. UCLA is one of the nine remaining undefeated teams in the nation. After Week 7, teams that are undefeated and facing a foe that has won 80% or more of their games and has covered the spread by 49 or more points over their last five games has earned a 19-6-1 ATS record good for 76% winning bets. Teams that are 6-0 on the season and facing a foe coming off a double-digit win and with a total between 65 and 72 points are 5-1 SUATS for 83% winning bets. Bet UCLA |
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10-22-22 | Rice -2.5 v. Louisiana Tech | Top | 42-41 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 58 m | Show |
Rice vs LA-Tech 3:00 EDT 4% best bet on the Rice Owls minus the points Betting on road favorites facing an opponent that is allowing 31 or more points per game and is coming off two consecutive games in which a combined score of 60 or more points was scored has earned a 235-52 SU record for 82% and 180-103-4 ATS for 64% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the total in the game is between 55 and 60 points, the record improves to 67-12 for 85% and 53-25-1 ATS for 68% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. |
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10-22-22 | Toledo v. Buffalo +7.5 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 4 h 55 m | Show |
Toledo vs Buffalo 4% 8-Unit best bet on Buffalo plus the points Buffalo is 12-3 ATS when facing a strong offense averaging 37 or more points-per-game. Buffalo is 13-3 ATS after winning four of their last five games. Toledo is running hot but prone to a regression matchup here against Buffalo; Toledo is averaging 38.4 PPG and posting a 10.5 yards-per-point, but their defense has suffered allowing 31 PPG and a 12.6 yards-per-point ratio. Teams, like Buffalo, that have covered or pushed against the spread and won all four games have gone on to a 16-6 ATS record for 73% winners. |
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10-22-22 | Syracuse +14.5 v. Clemson | Top | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 3 h 57 m | Show |
Syracuse vs Clemson 4% best bet on Syracuse plus the points Noon EDT Betting on road underdogs between 9 and 17.5 points in a conference matchup when the total is between 45 and 50 points has earned a 105-58-7 for 64% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. If our dog is undefeated on the season, they have gone 9-4 ATS for 69% winning bets last 10 seasons. |
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10-22-22 | Indiana v. Rutgers -3 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 3 h 56 m | Show |
Indiana vs Rutgers Noon EDT 4% 8-Unit best Bet on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights minus the points Hoosiers are just 4-15 ATS in road games after gaining less than 100 rushing yards in two consecutive games. Hoosiers head coach Allen is 1-9 ATS following a game with a –2 or worse turnover margin. From the predictive model, Indiana is expected to gain less than 3 yards per carry and for Rutgers to score 28 or more points. Rutgers is 17-0 SU and 13-3-1 ATS in hoe games scoring 28 or ore points and allowing less than 3 yards per carry. Indiana is 1-18 SU and 6-13 ATS in road games rushing for less than 3 yards per carry and allowing 28 or more points. |
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10-20-22 | Virginia +3 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 16-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
Virginia vs Georgia Tech 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Virginia Cavaliers plus the points Betting on dogs of 3 to 10 points in games played from weeks 5 to 9, are coming off two consecutive double-digit losses to conference foes are 39-46 SU, 57-25-3 ATS for 70% winning bets since the start of the 2013 season spanning 10 season and only the 2021, season had a losing record at 2-5 ATS. Teams like UVA that have covered the spread on no more than of their last six games, lined as a dog of not more than 4.5 points and with the total between 45 and 50 points has earned a 15-9 ATS record good for 63% winning bets. |
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10-17-22 | Broncos +4.5 v. Chargers | Top | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
Denver vs LA Chargers 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Broncos plus the points These two NFL teams are heading in opposite directions with the Broncos vastly underperforming losing their last two games to the Las Vegas Raiders and the Indianapolis Colts by nine and three points respectively. Their last lost to the Colts was a dreadful performance scoring just nine points and somehow losing 12-9 as 3-point home favorites. Despite the acquisition of all-pro quarterback Russell Wilson, the offense has been positively pathetic ranking dead last averaging 15 points-per-game and with a .236 points-per-play ratio. They have gone Under their team total by combined 41 points in just five games The betting markets opened this game with the Chargers favored by -6 points and the public went to the window quickly and often to bet the Chargers. Despite, 65% of the tickets bet being on the Chargers, the line has declined to make the Chargers a 4.5-point home favorite. If more bettors have bet on the Chargers accounting for 65% of all bets placed how could the line drop? The ‘sharps’ are the reason why the line has reversed course and they are the larger bettors including professionals. The ‘sharps’ account for 55% of the total money booked, but just 35% of the tickets. Generally, professionals look for contrarian opportunities that feature a struggling road team and the following situational trends and angles support a betting opportunity on the Broncos. Underdogs who failed to make the playoffs last season are off to a solid 36-23 ATS (61%) this season Chargers are 8-16 ATS (33%) in home games and facing a strong defense allowing 6 or fewer yards-per-play (YPPL) From my predictive models, the Chargers are expected to commit two turnovers Chargers are 0-7-1 ATS in home games in which they committed two turnovers Broncos are 11-4-1 ATS (73%) when priced as a dog and forcing two turnovers. |
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10-16-22 | Bills v. Chiefs OVER 54 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
Buffalo vs Kansas City 10-Unit 5% MAX Best Bet Over the posted total Betting Over in games played form Week 6 on out, with the road team in the matchup outgaining their opponents by at least 1.33 YPPL and are coming off 400 more total yards in their previous game has seen the Over go 22-12 for 65% winning bets since 1989 and 13-4 Over for 77% winning bets if the road team is outgaining their opponents by at least 1.50 YPPL. Plus, 9-1 Over if they are outgaining their opponents by 2.0 or more YPPL. The Bills are outgaining their opponent by a league-best 2.18 YPPL. From the predictive model, the Bills and Chiefs are expected to gain at least 5.75 YPPL. The Bills are 10-1 Over and the Chiefs 21-9-2 Over for 70% when these measures have been met or exceeded in games played over the past five seasons. |
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10-16-22 | Bengals v. Saints +3 | Top | 30-26 | Loss | -101 | 4 h 35 m | Show |
Cincinnati vs New Orleans 4% 8-Unit Best Bet Over the posted total 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the New Orleans Saints plus the points Betting the Over with a team, Bengals, coming off a road loss as a dog and are now priced as a road favorite in a game with a total of 42.5 or more points and is NOT coming off the BYE week has seen the OVER go 29-10-2 for 74% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. From my predictive model, both teams are expected to score 20 or more points and the Saints are expected to gain at least 125 rushing yards. In past games, the Saints are 15-1 SU, 11-4-1 ATS, and 15-1 Over-Under when meeting or exceeding these performance measures. |
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10-16-22 | Bengals v. Saints OVER 42.5 | Top | 30-26 | Win | 100 | 4 h 34 m | Show |
Cincinnati vs New Orleans 4% 8-Unit Best Bet Over the posted total 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the New Orleans Saints plus the points Betting the Over with a team, Bengals, coming off a road loss as a dog and are now priced as a road favorite in a game with a total of 42.5 or more points and is NOT coming off the BYE week has seen the OVER go 29-10-2 for 74% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. From my predictive model, both teams are expected to score 20 or more points and the Saints are expected to gain at least 125 rushing yards. In past games, the Saints are 15-1 SU, 11-4-1 ATS, and 15-1 Over-Under when meeting or exceeding these performance measures. |
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10-16-22 | Bucs v. Steelers OVER 46 | Top | 18-20 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 34 m | Show |
Buccaneers vs Steelers 4% 8-Unit Best Bet Over the posted total Steelers are 7-3 Over in home games and facing a solid defense allowing 17 or fewer points per game over the past 10 seasons. The Steelers are 27-14 Over-Under 66% in home games and coming off two straight losses and 12-4 Over following three straight losses. They are 13-7 Over in home games and on a 3 or more ats losing streak. The Steelers scored just three points in last week's loss to Buffalo despite ending the game with 364 yards. It was the second-most yards the Steelers have ever had in a game where the team failed to score more than three points (389 yards in 20-3 loss to 49ers in 2011) in the Super Bowl era. |
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10-16-22 | Vikings v. Dolphins +3 | Top | 24-16 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 33 m | Show |
Minnesota vs Miami 4% best bet on the Miami Dolphins plus the points Betting on underdogs including pick-em that are coming off an upset road loss and has won between 51 and 60% of their games on the season has earned a 28-24 SU record, 34-18 ATS record good for 65.4% winning bets over the past 25 seasons and if a non-divisional matchup has earned a 17-11 SU record and 20-8 SATS mark good for 71.4% winning bets. This is a contrarian bet. Miami’s top two quarterbacks, Tua Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater, are in the concussion protocol and have lost two straight games after starting 3-0. Plus, Miami will start a rookie quarterback Sunday against the Minnesota Vikings (4-1). With Skylar Thompson at quarterback, the Dolphins will hope to build on last week's best rushing output of the year and correct their issues in defending the pass and they have had a full week for Thompson to work with the first unit, correct his footwork mistakes, and create some good timing with the wideouts. |
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10-16-22 | Patriots +2.5 v. Browns | Top | 38-15 | Win | 100 | 4 h 33 m | Show |
New England vs Cleveland 4% 8-Unit Best bet on the Patriots plus the points Betting on road underdogs including pick-em following a game in which they committed no more than one turnover and taking on a foe that has had a turnover margin of –1 or worse in each of their past two games has led to a 32-9-2 ATS record good for 78% winning bets over the past five seasons The Patriots are coming off a 29-0 win over the Lions, the 17th time team coached by Bill Belichick has shut out their opponent. That is more shutouts than the combined total of the next three active coaches with the most team shutouts (John Harbaugh (5), Mike Tomlin (5) and Mike McCarthy (4). |
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10-13-22 | Washington Commanders v. Bears OVER 37.5 | Top | 12-7 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
Washington vs Chicago 4% 8-Unit best bet Over the posted total, currently at 38 and may get to 37.5 points ahead of the 8:15 PM EST kickoff. Commanders are 16-2-1 Over for 89% winning bets in road games and coming off a game in which they gained 300 or more passing yards since 2010. |
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10-13-22 | Temple +23.5 v. Central Florida | Top | 13-70 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 50 m | Show |
Temple vs UCF 4% 8-Unit best bet on UCF minus the points I loaded this up wrong and the bet is ON UCF !!! Betting on favorites of 23.5 to 31.5points following two consecutive wins by 17 or more points and facing an opponent that scored three or fewer points in the first half of their previous game has earned an outstanding 56-1 SU and 39-16-2 ATS for 71% winning bets since 2010. |
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10-13-22 | Baylor -3.5 v. West Virginia | Top | 40-43 | Loss | -102 | 28 h 49 m | Show |
Baylor vs West Virginia 4% 8-Unit best bet on Baylor minus the points Betting on road teams using the money line that are coming off an upset loss to a conference foe, has a winning record not higher than 60% on the season and facing a losing record foe has earned a 26-16 ATS mark for 62% winning bets and if that foe averaged fewer than 4 yards per rush in their previous game the record goes to 33-9 SU and 12-5-1 ATS for 71% wining bets. From the predictive model, Baylor is 24-4 SU and 22-6 ASTS for 79% winning bets when scoring 28+ points and having the same or fewer turnovers than their opponents in games played over the past five seasons. |
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10-12-22 | Blackhawks v. Avalanche OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
Chicago vs Colorado From the predictive model Chicago is 25-12 Over when allowing 37 or ore shots on goalin games played over the last three seasons; 37-16-1 Over when Colorado has taken 37+ shots on goal in game splayed over the past three seasons. |
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10-12-22 | Phillies v. Braves OVER 7 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -125 | 4 h 21 m | Show |
Philadelphia vs Atlanta 4% 8-Unit best bet OVER the total There could be several rain delays in this game and it may finish after the Dodgers and Padres game is complete. I think that adds to the Over probability and although remote do not be surprised if one of these managers opts in with an opener if the radar looks bad enough so that an imminent rain delay will occur within the first three innings. Phils are 52-30 Over following a win this season. Braves are 12-3-1 Over in home games when the total has been 7 or 7.5 runs this season. From the predictive mode, games that saw both teams use 9 or more pitchers in the playoffs and had a total between 7.5 and 8.5 runs saw the Over go 124-82-4 for 60% winning bets over the past five seasons. If either of the starters did not walk a batter in their previous start the Over has soared to 36-20 record good for 65% wining bets over the past five playoff seasons. |
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10-12-22 | UL-Lafayette +10.5 v. Marshall | Top | 23-13 | Win | 100 | 4 h 20 m | Show |
LA Lafayette vs Marshall 4% 8-Unit best Bet on the Ragin Cajuns plus the points. Marshall is just 7-19 ATS in a home game when the total has been between 42.5 and 49.5 points over the past 10 seasons; 21-45 ATS after having lost two of their last three games SU; 15-34-1 ATs following two games io which they committed no more than a single turnover in each. From my predictive model, LAL is expected to score 24 or more points and have fewer turnovers than Marshall. In past games in which they achieved those measures, they have gone on to earn a 27-2 SU mark and 20-8-1nATS record good for 71% winning bets over the past five seasons and when priced as the dog, 7-1 SUATS for 88% winning bets over the past five seasons. |
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10-11-22 | Guardians +180 v. Yankees | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
Cleveland vs Yankees 4% 8-Unit best Bet on the Guardians using the moneyline The New York Yankees dominated the Cleveland Guardians during the regular season winning five of six meetings, but all six games took place in the first half of the season when the Yankees dominated everyone building a 15.5 game lead in the AL East standings on July 8. The Yankees had the 17th best record of the 32 teams with a 38-40 record from July 9. The Guardians had the second-best record in MLB since July 9 with an outstanding 55-29 record. The Yankees’ Aaron Judge masked many of the fundamental flaws his team possessed, but in the playoffs those weaknesses are revealed. MLB Betting and Money Percentages Currently, the Yankees are getting the bulk of the public betting interest with 67% of the tickets bet on the Yankees. However, those Yankees bets only account for 24% of the money bet reflecting that the ‘sharps’ (large bettors) are on the Guardians. The 43% difference between ticket and money percentages is by far the highest on the board with the other three games all less than 10% differentials. Situational Trends and Angles · The Guardians are 29-15 making 14 units on the moneyline when facing an AL opponent allowing 4.4 or fewer runs per game and is batting .255 or lower in games played in the second half of this season. o The under in this situation has earned a 27-15-2 record good for 64% winning Under bets. · The Guardians are 40-19 making 21 units on the moneyline when facing a team that is averaging .6 or fewer errors per game in games played in the second half of this season. |
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10-09-22 | Eagles -5 v. Cardinals | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 13 m | Show |
Philadelphia Eagles vs Arizona Cardinals 5% MAX 10-Unit best Bet on the Eagles minus the points As I had mentioned on several occasions before the preseason started, I truly believed the Eagles were one of the most underrated teams in many seasons- not just this season. They know this is a letdown spot for them with travel to the Est Coast and they will be more than ready to play and fully focused to get to 5-0 on the season. The Phillies winning their playoff series last night, whether they know it or not, will feed into this club too, and they will hardly want to come back home to Philadelphia having let down the fan base. This is an intangible but one I think favors the Eagles in a big way. Cardinals are 0-8 ATS in home games after outgaining the previous opponent by 100 or more total yards in games played over the past three seasons; 8-15 ATS in home games when the total has been 45 or more points spanning the last three seasons. Cardinals head coach Kingsbury is 2-9 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record. From my predictive model we are expecting the Eagles to rush the ball for at least 150 yards and score at least 24 or more points. In past games in which the Cardinals allowed 150 or more rushing yards and allowed 24 or more points they have gone 3-11-1 ATS for 21% over the past five seasons. The Eagles are 12-2-1 for 86% winning bets when rushing the ball for 150 or more yards and scoring 24 or more points in games played over the last five seasons. |
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10-08-22 | Fresno State v. Boise State -7.5 | Top | 20-40 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
Fresno State vs Boise State 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on Boise State minus the points 9:45 PM EST Fresno head coach Tedford is 0-7 ATS following a game in which he gained 225 or fewer yards. From the predictive model, we are expecting Fresno to gain less than 100 rushing yards and for Boise to score at least 28 points. In past games in which Boise State scored 28 or more points and held their opponent to less than 100 RY has seen them earn a 61-4 SU record and a 45-17-2 SATS mark good for 73% winning bets since 2006. If the game is at home, BSU is 31-1 SU and 21-9-1 ATS for 70% winning bets. |
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10-08-22 | Kansas State v. Iowa State +1.5 | Top | 10-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
K-State vs Iowa State 5% 10-Unit Best Bet on the Iowa State Cyclones Iowa State has won three of its last four games versus Kansas State after the Wildcats had won each of the previous 10 contests. The last matchup that was played in Ames resulted in a 45-0 victory for the Cyclones. The Wildcats (4-1, 2-0 Big 12) have lost two straight games to the Cyclones (3-2, 0-2) and have fallen in their last two trips to Ames. Their loss in 2018 broke a 10-game winning streak vs. Iowa State. The Wildcats are within three games of evening the all-time series, which Iowa State leads 52-49-4. The Wildcats enter Saturday's game riding a two-game winning streak -- impressive victories at Oklahoma and against Texas Tech. Wildcats quarterback Adrian Martinez has earned Big 12 Player of the Week honors in each of the past two weeks, getting the offensive honor following the win over Oklahoma and newcomer honors after downing Texas Tech. From the predictive models, we are looking for ISU to gain at least 150 rushing yards, score 27 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers. IN past games in which the Cyclones met these measures they have earned a 40-10 SU record and 40-9-1 ATS for 82% winning bets since 1989 and is 16-3 SU and 15-4 ATS for 79% winning bets over the last five seasons. |
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10-08-22 | North Carolina +3.5 v. Miami-FL | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
North Carolina vs Miami (FLA) 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on UNC plus the points Betting on teams that are facing an opponent coming off a horrid loss priced as a 20 or greater favorite has produced a 97-201 SU record, 113-83-3 ATS record good for 58% winning bets since 1989. If these failures were ranked against an unranked team in that terrible loss, the next opponent playing them has earned a 19-30 SU record, but a solid 31-17-1 SATS mark good for 65% winning bets. If our team we are betting on is the dog, they go just 9-26 SU, but 23-11-1 ATS for 68% winning bets. If that opponent was ranked while enduing their most recent monster loss and now fell out of the Top-25 now, their opponents feast on the in a big way going 11-13 SU and 17-7-1 ATS for 71% winning bets. |
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10-08-22 | Virginia Tech +15 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 29-45 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
Virginia Tech vs Pittsburgh
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10-08-22 | Wisconsin -10 v. Northwestern | Top | 42-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
Wisconsin vs Northwestern 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on Wisconsin minus the points 3:30 start time Wisconsin is 20-5 ATS for 80% following a game in which they were outrushed by 125 or more yards. NWU is just 1-9 ASTS following a game that played UNDER the total. Wisconsin is 10-2 ATS after allowing 31 or more points in each of their last two games. NWU head coach Fitzgerald is 0-6 ATS following a game in which they covered the spread but did not win the game. He is also 8-18 SATS following a game in which they forced three or more turnovers. Betting on favorites between 10.5 and 21 points that are on a two or more game losing streak and have a win percentage between 40% and 50% on the season (Wisconsin is 2-3 for 40% win percentage) have gone 47-3 SU and 37-13 ATS for 74% winning bets since 2010. |