Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-11-22 | Vikings v. Lions -2 | Top | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 1 h 26 m | Show |
Minnesota vs Detroit 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Detroit Lions minus the points. Betting on favorites that have won three of their last four games and facing a foe that has won eight or more of their last 10 games has earned a 34-14-2 ATS record good for 71% winning bets since 2010. If the total is less than 55 points, the favorite has gone 32-12-1 ATS for 73% winning bets since 2010. The last four games between the Lions and Vikings have all been decided by four or fewer points, which is tied for the longest such streak in series history matching four straight from 1963-65. It's also the longest active streak between any two divisional opponents in the NFL right now. In this situation, the home teams that also has fewer wins than the foe has earned a 14-5-1 ATS mark good for 74% winning bets since 2010. |
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12-11-22 | Eagles v. Giants +7 | Top | 48-22 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 25 m | Show |
Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants 4% best bet on the Giants plus the points and sprinkle the money line Bet on hoe dogs facing an elite opponent that has averaging 5.75 or more yards-per-play and the favorite has gained 450 or more total yards in each of their past two games has earned a 32-11 ATS record good for 74% winning bets since 1990 and if our dog is priced as a 3.5-to-9.5-point underdog, they have gone 10-1-1 ATS for 91% winning bets since 1990. In last week’s game against Washington, Daniel Jones became the first quarterback in the Super Bowl era to complete 80.0 percent of his passes on 30 or more attempts while also rushing for 70 or more yards in a game. Teams that have won their first five road games of the regular season, priced as a road favorite in the current game and average fewer than 1 turnover per game are just 6-13-1 ATS. |
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12-11-22 | Jets +10 v. Bills | Top | 12-20 | Win | 100 | 1 h 25 m | Show |
New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills 4% 8-Unit best Bet on the Jets plus the generous amount of points and just in case a sprinkle on the money line is warranted. Betting on road dogs of 3.5 to 10.5 points facing a foe that forced no more than a single turnover has earned these dogs a 145-85 ATS record good fort 64% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. Home favorites of 3.5 to 10.5 points that forced no more than a single turnover in their previous game and are playing with same season revenge against a divisional foe are just 10-21-1 ATS for 32% winning bets – so facing these favorite has earned a 68% win rate. |
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12-10-22 | Navy v. Army UNDER 32.5 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -109 | 53 h 59 m | Show |
Army vs Navy 4% 8-Unit Best Bet Under the posted total If it isn’t broke do not try to fix it. I like betting 50% preflop Under the total and then look for a decent start by both teams and look to add the second 50% at 37.5 or more points. It is difficult, mentally to bet an Under priced at 32.5 points, but the numbers once again support this bet and it is just one bet over the course of a marathon season. Bet the Under when the total is 50 or fewer points and a matchup of two teams averaging 225 or more rushing yards per game has earned a 50-25-2 record good for 67% winning Under bets since 2006 and 37-14-2 Under good for 73% winning bets since 2015. |
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12-08-22 | Nuggets +1.5 v. Blazers | Top | 121-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
Denver Nuggets vs Portland Trail Blazers 4% 8-Unit Best bet on the Denver Nuggets Betting on road favorites, playing with same season revenge and coming off a home loss, and not playing on back-to-back nights has earned a 52-19 SU record good for 73% winners and 49-22 ATS good for 69% winning bets since 2015. If our team is not playing on B2B nights and the host has MORE rest, our team has gone 56-24 ATS for 70% winning bets since 2015. This system is11-3 ATS good for 79% winning bets over the past two seasons. Portland is 16-28-1 ATS in hoe games and when facing a solid shooting team making 46% or more of their shot attempts on the season spanning the last two seasons. |
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12-08-22 | Jets v. Blues +107 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
Winnipeg vs St. Louis 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on St, Louis using the money line Betting on home teams using the money line that have played three consecutive games in which 8 or more goals were scored in each game and taking on a foe that has allowed two or fewer goals in two consecutive games has earned a 23-9 record for 72% winning bets averaging a -111 money line bet and producing a 42% ROI since 2006 and 11-2 record for 85% winners last five seasons averaging a -111 money line wager and producing a terrific 65% ROI. Bet on St. Louis |
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12-07-22 | Canucks v. Sharks UNDER 6.5 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
Vancouver vs San Jose 4% 8-Unit Best Bet UNDER Betting Under when the total is 6 or more goals with a home team coming off a road game where both teams scored three or more goals, is a struggling team winning 30% or less of their games and with the game taking place in the first half of the season. From the predictive models the Under is 34-12 in road games when they have scored two or fewer goals. |
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12-07-22 | Celtics -1.5 v. Suns | Top | 125-98 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
Boston Celtics vs Phoenix Suns 5% 10-Unit Best Bet on the Boston Celtics Let’s get right into the meat and potatoes. Betting on teams lined between a 3.5 point favorite and a 3.5-point underdog and facing an opponent that is outscoring their opponents by 6 or more PPG on the season and coming off three consecutive games that saw at least 220 points scored in each one has earned an outstanding and highly profitable 47-19 ATS record good for 71% winning bets over the past five seasons. If our team has one day of rest, they have earned a 43-15 ATS mark good for 74% winning bets last 5 seasons. If our team has had the same number or more days of rest than the opponent, the record has improved to 42-17 ATS for 71% over the past 5 seasons. Chris Paul may be playing for the Suns tonight after having missed the previous 14 games since injuring his heel in a game at Philadelphia November 7. The Celtics have won and covered seven of its last eight games. Boston’s latest victory was Monday's 116-110 win at Toronto and covered the spread as 1.5 point underdogs. The Celtics were without center Al Horford (back) and guard Malcolm Brogdon (illness) for that game but received 31 points and 12 rebounds from Jayson Tatum and 22 points and eight rebounds from Jaylen Brown. It was Tatum's team-high 12th double-double of the season, and the 15th consecutive game Brown has scored at least 20 points. Celtics are 14-4 ATS in road games after having won at least six of their previous games over the past two seasons. Celtics are 21-11 ATS for 66% winners in road games where they have been priced between a -3 favorite and +3 underdog over the past two seasons. |
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12-07-22 | Eastern Kentucky +28.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 49-84 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 2 m | Show |
Eastern Kentucky vs Tennessee 4% 8-Unit bets bet on Eastern Kentucky plus the points Eastern Kentucky is 22 - 9 against the spread when facing teams averaging 40 or more rebounds per game. Eastern Kentucky is 35 - 16 ATS in road games when facing solid defensive teams allowing 64 or fewer points per game. |
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12-01-22 | Bills v. Patriots +3.5 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
Buffalo vs New England 5% 10-Unit Best Bet on the Patriots plus the points and a bit more sprinkle on the moneyline. Mac Jones threw touchdowns of 37 and 34 yards in the Thanksgiving loss. Jones entered the game with three career TD passes of at least 30 yards with one of those coming in 2022 prior to playing the Vikings. This is a certain sign that the Patriots are opening up the playbook and looking to stretch the defense vertically using a variety of 20+ yard routes. This is in turn will open up the ground game between the tackles and also using the traditional old-school trap block running plays. If Buffalo moves to a cover-1 shell, then no doubt in my mind you will see Jones use play action to freeze the linebackers and the look for crossing routes over the middle of field for high percentage catch and carry receptions. The injury bug has migrated around the Bills' defense this season. The latest to be affected is top pass rusher Von Miller after he was ruled out with a knee injury. Miller leads the team with eight sacks and has been the veteran leader on the defensive unit. His absence creates an enormous hole for a unit that has allowed just 18.1 points per game this season, the fifth fewest allowed in the NFL. Betting on underdogs that are taking on a favorite that is outgaining their opponents by .75 or more YPPL and have averaged 400 or more total yards over their last three games has produced a remarkable 51-15-2 ATS mark good for 77% winning bets over the past five seasons. If the favorite won the previous meeting, which the Bills did, the system improves to 34-9 ATS for 80% winning bets over the past five seasons. From the predictive model of mine, the Patriots are expected to score 24 or more points and average at least 6.5 yards per pass attempt. In past HOME games in which they met or exceeded these performance measures has led them to an outstanding 85-4 SU record and 69-20 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets since 1998 and since Tom Brady left Foxborough, they are an even better 16-1 SU and 15-2 ATS (88%). |
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11-28-22 | Steelers v. Colts OVER 39.5 | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 2 h 48 m | Show |
Pittsburgh vs Colts 4% 8-Unit Best Bet OVER the total Betting the Over when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points with one of the teams, Pittsburgh in this case coming off a close loss of 7 or fewer points to a divisional rival, from week 5 on out has earned a 46-25 Over good for 65% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Tomlin is 13-4 Over off a close loss to a divisional foe of not more than 7 points. |
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11-27-22 | Bears v. Jets -6.5 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
Chicago Bears vs New York Jets 5% 10-Unit Best Bet on the Jets minus the points I waited to release this opportunity given the weather. It is a near certainty that it will start raining at the beginning of this game and will continue to rain throughout the entire game, which I believe favors the Jets even more than if the sun was shining brightly and not a could in the sky. The Bears defense has been horrific allowing 35 PPG over their last four games and the move to Mike White under center is a monster upgrade to Zach Wilson’s recent performances and whining about it to the media. Against the Bears defense in the rain, Mike White will not have to win the game on his arm and they can elect to run the ball first and foremost. Running plays also include the easy to complete passes in the flat and the keep the chains moving. Do not be surprised, though, if play action opens up the opportunity to throw the over-the-top vertical pass routes. White has a great arm – even in the rain – and once the Bears succumb from a Cover-2 shell and bring those safeties up to the line of scrimmage to defend the run, White will have any of receivers in man coverage and a high percentage completion percentage opportunity. Betting on favorites that are facing a team that has gone over the total by 30 or more points in their last five games and has won not more than 40% of their games on the season has earned a 36-15-3 ATS record good for 71% winning bets over the past five seasons. Bears are 1-6 ATS last 3 seasons following back-to-back games in which 50 or more points were scored. From the predictive model, the Jets are 25-2 SU and 22-5 ATS (82%) winners in home games, gaining at least 5.5 yards per play and allowing 17 or fewer points. The Bears are 1-51 SU, 6-45-1 ATS (12%) when allowing 5.5 or more yards per play and scoring 17 or fewer points. |
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11-26-22 | Notre Dame v. USC -4 | Top | 27-38 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
Notre Dame vs USC 5% MAX 10-Unit Best bet on Southern Cal minus the points From the predictive model, we are expecting USC to score at least 31 points, gain at least 100+ more yards of total offense and have the same or fewer turnovers. USC is 48-0 SU and 42-6 ATS (88%) when meeting or exceeding these performance measures since 2006 and 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS the past five seasons. Betting on home favorites between 4 and 10 points in weeks 10 on out and facing a foe that has gone Over the total by 49 or more points in their last five games has earned a 15-4 SU (79%) and 14-5 ATS mark good for 74% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. |
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11-20-22 | Chiefs v. Chargers +5.5 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
Kansas City Chiefs vs LA Chargers 4% 8-Unit Best bet on the Chargers plus the points and sprinkle the money line a bit too. Betting on dogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points that are facing an opponent whose defense has not forced a single turnover in their past two games has earned a 49-21 ATS record good for 70% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the game is taking place in the second half of the season, these dogs soar to 31-12 ATS for 72% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The Chiefs are just 2-15 against the spread after gaining 400 or more total yards in three consecutive games. They are also 2-16 against the spread after gaining .an average of 450 or more total yards per game over their past three games. From the predictive model we are expecting the charges to gain at least 80 rushing yards and have the same or fewer turnovers. In past games in which the Chargers met or exceeded these performance measures has lead them to a 25-7 straight up record for 78% winning bets and 22-8 - 2 for 73% winning bets against the spread. |
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11-20-22 | Cowboys -1 v. Vikings | Top | 40-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
Dallas Cowboys vs Minnesota Vikings 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points or use the moneyline if it is a cheaper price at your sportsbook. The Dallas Cowboys are 9-1 for 90% winning bets and covering the spread by an average of 12.4 points per game when facing a defense that is allowing 225 or more passing yards per game in games played over the last two seasons. The Cowboys are 7-2 for 78% winning bets covering the spread by an average of 7.50 points per bet when facing a defense that is allowing 7.00 or more yards per pass attempt in games played over the last two seasons. They are also a perfect 6-0 covering the spread by an average of 10 points per game when coming off a terrible defensive effort in which they allowed six or more yards per play in games played over the last two seasons. From the predictive model we are expecting Dallas to gain at least 125 rushing yards average more yards gained per play than the Vikings and have the same or fewer turnovers than the Vikings. In past games in which the Cowboys met or exceeded these performance measures has LED them to a perfect 16- hi0 record and 16-0 against the spread covering each bet by an average of 13.5 points per game. The Vikings in the same situation are 0-9 straight up and against the spread and losing to the spread by an average of 11 points per game. |
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11-20-22 | Lions +3 v. Giants | Top | 31-18 | Win | 100 | 101 h 3 m | Show |
Detroit Lions vs New York Giants 5% 10-Unit Max bet Game of the Year 1:00 EST, Sunday, November 20,l 2022 If you have watched me for any length of time – even just a week – you already know how much I emphasize discipline. This is a 5% MAX Best Bet. That does not mean you consider betting a 20% amount, for instance. Bet with your heads and not over it and may all the wins be yours is my slogan and moto. This sia very strong betting opportunity and one that I do believe strongly will win, BUT BUTBUT please remember there is no such thing as a LOCK or guaranteed to win bet. As much research and supporting analytics are solidly behind the Lions, they could fail to cover the spread. Betting on teams that average 30 or fewer rushing attempts per game, are coming off an upset road win, had no more than a 4-minute time of possession advantage in that upset win, and now facing a foe that averages at least 32 minutes in time of possession has earned a 34-33 SU and 42-24-1 ATS for 64% winning bets over the previous 15 seasons. If our team is facing a foe with a win percentage of .500 or better, our team soars a bit higher to produce a 28-24 SU record, 36-15-1 ATS for 71% winners over the past 15 seasons. If our team (obviously the Lions) is the underdog, they go to 14-20 SU and 24-9-1 ATS for 73% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. Now for the drumroll please. If our dog is priced at no more than 4-points, they have gone on to earn an 11-2 SU record and 12-1 ATS mark good for 92.3% winning bets over the past 15 seasons and is on a 7-0 ATS win streak since 2014. From the predictive model, we are looking for the Lions to average .5 or more yards per play than the Giants, average at least 7 yards per pass attempt, and have the same or fewer turnovers. In past games since 2015 in which the Lions met or exceeded these performance measures has led them to a highly profitable 15-3 SU (83%) mark and 17-1 ATS (94% winning bets. The Giants are 1-19 SU and 3-17 ATS (15%) when allowing 7 or more yards per pass attempt, gained.5 or fewer yards per play, and had the same or more turnovers in games played since 2015 and 0-12 SUATS since 2017. |
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11-20-22 | Jets +3.5 v. Patriots | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 41 m | Show |
New York Jets vs New England Patriots 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Jets plus the points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line at any price above +150 Betting on underdogs between 3 and 9.5 points that are coming off a home win and facing a foe that has won and covered the spread priced as a favorite in each of their last two games has earned a highly profitable 39-19-2 ATS for 67% winning bets since 2013. If the host has a lower win percentage than the guest, the home team is a nearly imperfect 1-7-1 ATS for 12% or facing these home favs has produced an exceptional 88% winning bets since 2010. |
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11-20-22 | Bears v. Falcons -2.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 3 h 40 m | Show |
Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Falcons minus the points, or you like the moneyline that is valid too. Betting on any team that is facing a team that has won between 25 to 40% of their games on the season and has gone Over the posted totals by a combined 35 or more points over their last three games has produced a remarkable 23-7 SU (77%) record and 23-5-2 ATS (82%) winning bets over the past five seasons. |
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11-16-22 | Eastern Michigan v. Kent State -7 | 31-24 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
Eastern Michigan vs Kent State 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on Kent State –7.5 points or better Betting on home teams from Week 8 on out that are averagig between 190 and 230 rushing yards per game and held their previous opponent to less than 100 rushing yards and facing an opponent that is averaging 140 to 190 rushing yards per game has earned a highy profitable 45-14 SU (76%) record and 40-16-3 ATS (71.4%) record since 2015. If a favorite between 3.5 and 9.5 points has produced a 10-1 SU and 8-2 ATS (80%) winning bets record. The predictive mode shows an 83% probability that Kent State will score at least 31 points and have the same or fewer turnovers as Eastern Michigan. In past games in which Kent State met these performance measures they have gone on to earn a 17-4 SU (81%) and 16-5 ATS (76%) record since 2015. EMU is 2-28 (7%) and 7-22-1 ATS (24%) when allowing 31 or ore points and having the same or more turnovers than their opponent sice 2015. |
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11-13-22 | Canucks +197 v. Bruins | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 10 m | Show |
Vancouver vs Boston 4% 8-Unit best Bet on Vancouver Betting on underdogs that have lost four or five of their previous 6 games and now facing a scorching hot team that has won 8 or more of their last 10 games has earned a 117-134 record, but by averaging a +171-underdog bet has produced a highly profitable 22% Roi over the past five seasons making 65 units in the process. If our dog is priced between 135 and 195 the results have been an even better 51-52 SU and producing a 28% ROI over the past five seasons. |
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11-13-22 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff v. Mississippi State -24.5 | Top | 47-80 | Win | 100 | 3 h 57 m | Show |
Arkansas Pine Bluff vs Mississippi State 4% 8-Unit best bet on the MST minus the points ARK is just 11-27 ATS when on the road and coming off three non-conference games in a row and 9-22 ATS after covering the spread in 2 ro more consecutive games. State is 45-22-3 ATS in home games with a posted total between 135 and 139.5 points. |
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11-13-22 | Jaguars +9.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 33 m | Show |
Jaguars vs Chiefs 4% 8-Unit best Bet on the Jaguars and add a sprinkle to the moneyline Jacksonville has to feel much better snapping its five-game straight-up and pointspread losing streak in dramatic fashion, rallying from a 17-0 deficit against Las Vegas Raiders as QB Trevor Lawrence had an extremely efficient game (25 of 31 passing for 235 yds. with a TD and no interceptions plus rushing for 53 yards) and RB Travis Etienne turned in his third straight 100-yard game and now has 379 YR for 5.7 yards per rush attempt and four touchdowns in his last three games. Betting against favorites in games played in November that have failed to cover the spread in three of their last four games has earned a 32-17-3 ATS record good for 65% winning bets last five season and if that favorite is lined between 3.5 and 9.5 points, our dogs play even better with a 21-4 ATS record good for 84% winning bets. |
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11-13-22 | Browns v. Dolphins -3 | Top | 17-39 | Win | 100 | 2 h 33 m | Show |
Browns vsDolphins 1:00 EDT 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Dolphins The Dolphins have scored at least 30 points in their last two games, including a 35-32 win in Chicago in Week 9. The last time Miami had a longer streak was 2009 which lasted four games.The Dolphins are undefeated with Tua playing the complete game and I see that trend continuing again today.The Dolphins are averaging 7.0 yards per play on 1st and 10 this season, best in the NFL.The Browns defense is quite good, but Tua is far too smart and creative to be consistently stopped on first downs against anyone. Betting on favorites in a game in which both defenses allowing between 23 and 27.5 points per game, and with our favorite coming off back-to-back games in which 50 or more points were scored in each game has earned a 38-17-1 ATS record good for 69% winning bets since 2010. |
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11-13-22 | Broncos +2.5 v. Titans | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 32 m | Show |
Broncos vs Titans 4% 8-UNIT best bet on the Broncos Betting on road dogs in a game involving both teams committing 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game on the season and with the favored team coming off a game in which they forced zero turnovers has earned a 36-16-1 ATS mark good for 69% winning bets over the past five seasons. If our dog is coming off a game in which tye converted 25% or fewer of their third down attempts has gopneto earn a 9-3-1 ATS mark good for 75% winning bets. |
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11-13-22 | Texans +5 v. Giants | Top | 16-24 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 31 m | Show |
Texans vs Giants 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Texans Betting on road dogs in a game involving both teams committing 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game on the season and with the favored team coming off a game in which they forced zero turnovers has earned a 36-16-1 ATS mark good for 69% winning bets over the past five seasons. If our dog is coming off a game in which they converted 25% or fewer of their third down attempts has gone to earn a 9-3-1 ATS mark good for 75% winning bets. Giants are 4-7 ATS (36%) when taking on a foe that is completing at least 60% of their pass attempts in the second half of each of the past three seasons. From the predictive model, the Texans as a road dog are 16-2 ATS when holding their opponents to 21 or fewer points and forcing them into 2 or more turnovers. |
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11-10-22 | 76ers +1.5 v. Hawks | Top | 95-104 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
Philadelphia 76ers vs Atlanta Hawks 5% 10-Unit Max Best bet on the 76ers Let’s get right to it, shall we? Betting on road underdogs, who lost to the current foe by three or fewer points in their last meeting, and the foe just lost a game priced as a favorite has earned a 35-10 ATS record good for 78% winning bets since 2017. If our dog is priced as a 4 or fewer-point underdog they have earned an 11-3 ATS record good for 79% winning bets since 2017. This is the first of two games against each other with the second game taking place Saturday in Philadelphia. Joel Embiid returned to the 76ers Monday having fully recovered from the flu while the Hawks Trey Young is back at full strength recovered from a lower leg injury. Embiid scored 33 points and 10 boards marking his fourth double-double of the young season. Not the same for Young, who shot horribly poor (10-for-28) in a 125-119 home loss last night. The 76ers bench is significantly better than the Hawks edition, who were outscored 43-19 last night. James Hardin remains out nursing a tendon strain in his right foot, but Tyrese Maxey, despite being so young, is learning quickly how to run the point for four quarters and doing it quite well. From the predictive mode, we are expecting the 76ers to score at least 111 points and make more 3-pointers than the Hawks. IN past games since 2017 in which the 76ers met these performance measures has seen them go on to a 96-16 SU record, 85-25-2 ATS (77%) record. When the Hawks have allowed 11 or more points and made fewer three-pointers than their opponent has seen them produce an 18-86 SU record and 23-81 ATS for 22% since 2017. |
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11-06-22 | Chargers -3 v. Falcons | Top | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 5 h 45 m | Show |
Chargers vs Falcons 1:00 EDT 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Chargers Betting on favorites including pick-em in a matchup in which both teams are allowing an average of 23 to 27.5 PPG on the season and with the favorite coming off back-to-back games in which 50 or more points were scored in each one has earned a 56-29-1 ATS record good for 66% winning bets. Betting on road favorites that are gaining at least 250 passing yards per game and are coming off a game in which they gained 5.75 or fewer passing yards per attempt has earned a 44-10 ATS mark good for 82% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. Plus, if our road favorite is coming off their BYE week, they then have gone a perfect 5-0 ATS. Falcons have been winning with smoke and mirrors having been outgained in total yards in 6 of their last 7 games. These pretenders have gone 28-48 ATS when priced as a dog with a win percentage of 50% or higher. |
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10-29-22 | USC -14 v. Arizona | Top | 45-37 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
USC vs Arizona 5% 10-UNIT NAX Best Bet on the USC Trojans minus the points USC has won nine straight meetings with Arizona, with the Wildcats' last win coming at home in 2012. The Trojans have won 15 of their 19 all-time visits to Tucson. Jordan Addison had seven catches for 106 yards and hauled in his seventh touchdown of the season, tied with Arizona's Jacob Cowing for the Pac-12 lead. Addison's next reception will mark the 200th of his college career. He is a transfer from Pittsburgh and currently ranks fifth among active FBS players with 199 career receptions and 2844 receiving yards, while his 28 career touchdowns rank second to UTSA's Zakhari Franklin, who has 29. The USC offense ranks ninth averaging 40.4 PPG and 8th with a 0.589 points-per-play ration in the nation. That explosive offense is going up against a defense in Arizona that ranks 123rd in the nation with a 0.554 points-per-play allowed and 124th allowing 37.7 PPG. The Wildcats have allowed 6.94 yards per play this season, third highest in the FBS behind Charlotte (7.36) and South Florida (7.00). Arizona has allowed 5.8 yards per rush this season, fourth most in the FBS, but held Washington to just 79 yards (2.7 yards per rush) in its last game. Betting on road favorites of 13 or more points that is facing a foe that is allowing 31 o more PPG and with that opponent coming off two consecutive games in which 60 or more points in total were scored has earned an outstanding 106-57-1 SYS record good for 65% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. Plus, if being played from Week 9 on out and against a conference foe has improved the results to a 73-6 SU record and 55-24 ASTS for 70% winning bets. Take USC minus the points |
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10-26-22 | Lakers v. Nuggets OVER 227 | Top | 99-110 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
LA Lakers vs Denver Nuggets 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Under Betting the Under when the total is 210 or more points in a matchup between two teams getting outscored by 7 or more points per game has earned a highly profitable 29-19 Under record for 61% winning Under bets over the past 10 seasons. If either team allowed 1`25 or more points in their previous game, the Under then has gone 13-3 for 81% winning bets over the the past three seasons. |
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10-26-22 | Oilers v. Blues +105 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
Edmonton vs St. Louis 4% 8-Unit best bet on the St. Louis Blues on the moneyline The Blues fall into a great betting system that is active tonight. Betting on home teams using the moneyline facing a foe coming off a win by three or more goals and with our home team coming off a loss by three or more goals has gone 181-130 for 58% and a nice 12% ROI over the past five seasons. If our home team is lined between a –125 and a +125 dog, they have produced a 68-50 record for an even high profit and a nice 18% ROI over the last five years. |
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10-26-22 | Hornets v. Knicks -7.5 | Top | 131-134 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
Charlotte Hornets vs NY Knicks 4% 8-Unit Best bet on the Knicks minus the points Bet on favorites between 3.5 and 9.5 points that are facing a team that covered the spread by 24 or more points in their previous game has earned a 62-33-2 ATS record good for 65% winning bets over the past five seasons. If our favorite is not playing on back-to-back nights, they have gone on to a 55-27-1 ATS record and 67% winning bets over the past five seasons. |
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10-26-22 | Hawks v. Pistons +7.5 | Top | 118-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
Atlanta Hawks vs Detroit Pistons 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the pistons plus the points Pistons are playing on back-to-back nights and coming off three straight road losses, but these negative results put the Pistons into an excellent contrarian best bet opportunity tonight. Betting on teams playing on back-to-back nights and have lost three straight road games have earned a 32-30 SU record and a highly profitable 45-15-2 ATS mark for 75% winning bets since the start of the 2016 season. There is more data drilling to do though. If our team is installed as a dog between 3.5 and 9.5 points, they have gone to an outstanding money-making 19-3 ATS record good for 86.4% winning bets since 2016. In a rare scheduling glitch these two teams will play two consecutive games against each other in Detroit starting tonight with a day off Thursday and then the second game being played Friday. Thus far, the Hawks have been reliant on starters for most of their scoring. Trae Young leads the club in scoring (25.3 points per game) and assists (11.7). Backcourt partner Murray is second in both categories (19.7, 8.3) while grabbing 7.3 rebounds per game and nabbing 3.3 steals per outing. Collins is averaging a double-double (19.0 points, 10.3 rebounds), but the highest-scoring reserve, Onyeka Okongwu, is averaging just 8.7 points. Charlotte's reserves outscored Atlanta's bench 52-28 in the Hawks 126-109 road loss Sunday. The Detroit bench is much better than the Hawks right now giving them a great opportunity to earn an upset win. |
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10-24-22 | Bears +9.5 v. Patriots | Top | 33-14 | Win | 100 | 3 h 26 m | Show |
Chicago Bears vs Patriots 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Chicago Bears plus the points Betting on road underdogs that are facing a foe that is outgaining opponents by 1.25 or more yards per pass attempt, after gaining seven or more passing yards per attempt in their last game has earned an outstanding 73-38-3 for 65.7% ATS winners over the last five seasons. If the home favorite held their previous opponent seven or more points UNDER their team total, these teams are just 3-9 ATS for 25%. So, fading them produced a 75% winning angle. A victory Monday night would be the 325th of his career - including the playoffs - and break a tie with Bears founder George Halas for the second-most wins by a head coach in NFL history. Hall of Famer Don Shula at 347 is the only coach with more. At age 70 and in his 23rd season with New England, Belichick became one of four people to coach at least 400 games with a single team, along with Halas (506 with Chicago), Tom Landry (454 with Dallas) and Shula (422 with Miami). Among that group, Belichick's winning percentage (.716) is the highest. He is 287-114 as New England's coach, including playoffs. The Bears rank third against the pass, and it is not just because teams are running at will against a team that is near the bottom of the NFL in stopping the rush. Chicago has more interceptions (five) than touchdown passes allowed (four) and has held its opponents to a 79.9 rating. Safety Eddie Jackson has three interceptions after going two seasons without one. He had six in his 2018 All-Pro season and two more the following year when he was chosen for his second Pro Bowl. Jackson has had 13 interceptions since he debuted in 2017. |
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10-23-22 | Jets v. Broncos OVER 36.5 | Top | 16-9 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 59 m | Show |
Jets vs Broncos 4% best bet on the Over Betting the Over with a team, Broncos, coming off a close loss of three or fewer points to a divisional rival has produced a 100-64-5 record good for 61% winning bets over the past 10 seasons and if the total is priced between 35 and 42 points has seen the Over produce a 22-8-1 Over record good for 73% winning bets last 10 seasons. If this game is occurring after the first four weeks of the season, the Over is a remarkable money-making 19-4-1 for 83% winning bets. |
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10-23-22 | Browns +7 v. Ravens | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 2 h 56 m | Show |
Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens 1:00 EDT week 7 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Browns plus the points Betting on dogs between 3.5 and 7.5 points that are facing a divisional foe with a strong offense averaging 6.0 or more yards-per-play (YPPL) and outgained their previous opponent by at least 100 yards has earned a highly profitable 22-11 ATS mark good for 67% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The Browns have forced no more than one takeaway in nine straight games, the second-longest streak in franchise history behind a 13-game streak in 2017. However, there is a significant probability that the Ravens will commit 2+ turnovers in this game today per my predictive model. So, teams like the Browns in a road game against a divisional foe that force 2+ turnovers and have the same or fewer turnovers (win the turnover battle) have gone 20-16 SU and 28-8 ATS for 78% winning bets. |
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10-23-22 | Lions +7 v. Cowboys | Top | 6-24 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 55 m | Show |
Lions vs Cowboys 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Lions plus the pooints Situational Betting Algorithms Road dogs of 3.5 to 7.5 points that are coming off their BYE week have earned a solid 20-12 ATS record good for 63% winning bets since 2015. The Lions is the team targeted by this set of parameters and I would not hesitate to sprinkle the moneyline too. Situational Trends and Angles The Underdogs, who failed to make the playoffs last season are off to a solid 35-25-2 ATS (58%) this season. The Lions are 26-10 ATS when on the road and coming off a terrible loss of 14 or more points. The Lions are 7-0 ATS when on the road and coming off a double-digit loss in games played over the last two seasons. |
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10-23-22 | Packers v. Commanders +4 | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 2 h 54 m | Show | |
Packers vs Commanders 4% 8-Unit Best bet on the Commanders plus the points Betting on dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are facing a foe that has not forced an opponent turnover in two straight games has produced a 44-19-1 ATS record good for 70% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. With the Commanders coming off a game in which they committed zero turnovers moves this system to an impeccable 14-3 ATS mark for 82% winning bets. While Rodgers nurses a thumb injury on his throwing hand that is not expected to sideline the four-time MVP, Washington is turning to Taylor Heinicke at quarterback after starter Carson Wentz had surgery to repair a broken right ring finger. Heinicke started 15 games last season and quite frankly, he is a better general of the offense than Wentz. During LaFleur's tenure, the Packers are 37-1 when they force at least one turnover. But the defense has not produced any takeaways during this losing streak, and they have forced only four turnovers all season. |
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10-23-22 | Colts v. Titans UNDER 43 | Top | 10-19 | Win | 100 | 2 h 52 m | Show |
Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Under Betting the Under with a home team that averages 1.25 or fewer yrds per pass attempt and with their defense coming off three consecutive games allowing at least seven yards per pass attempt has produced a 47-24-1 Under record good for 67% wining bets over the past 10 seasons. Plus, if the total in these games was 45 or fewer points, the under won at a 72% clip on a 23-9 record. Titans are 6-0 Under following a win of 6 or fewer points. From the predictive models, the Colts are 53-7 Under when allowing 21 or fewer points and averaging between 6 and 7 yards per pass attempt since 2002 and a perfect 14-0 Under over the past 10 seasons. |
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10-22-22 | Minnesota v. Penn State -5 | Top | 17-45 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
Minnesota vs Penn State 7:30 PM EST 5% 10-Unit Best bet on the Penn State Nittany Lions minus the points There is news circulating from reliable sources that Minnesota quarterback Tanner Morgan will not be able to start tonight in Penn State’s annual white-out game set to start at 7:30 PM EST in Happy Valley. There is news too that PSU QB Sean Clifford may not start either coming off a very physical loss at Michigan last week. The difference here is I the backups and strongly favors PSU true freshman Drew Allar, who is a protype pro quarterback standing 6-5 and weighing in at 238 pounds. He has incredible leg strength and is hard to tackle pulling out of many would be tackler attempts. Most important is that he may be the best quarterback in the game today. He has appeared in four games this season completing 12 of 19 passes for 163 yards and two touchdowns. How in the world Ohio State let this player get out of their grasps is somewhat mind blowing. Rated as a five-star prospect by 247Sports and On3 and a four-star recruit by ESPN and Rivals...Rated the top quarterback prospect in the country and the No. 3 overall prospect by 247Sports.Named the 2021 Ohio Prep Sportswriters Association Mr. Football, State Offensive Player of the Year, Max Preps Ohio Player of the Year and a first-team all-state selection in Division I... Selected Greater Cleveland Conference Offensive Player of the Year, Ohio Prep Sportswriters Association Northeast Ohio Inland District Division I Offensive Player of the Year, Cleveland.com Offensive Player of the Year and Medina County MVP. As a junior and senior, was an Ohio Division I first team and Greater Cleveland Conference first team honoree. Completed 305-of-511 passes (60 percent) for 4,444 yards and 48 passing touchdowns his senior season, setting Medina County records for yards and touchdowns. PSU head coach James Franklin is 13-4 ATS after failing to cover the spread in three of the last four games. PSU is 40-20-2 ATS after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games. Minnesota is just 7-19 ATS as a road underdog between 3.5 and 7 points. |
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10-22-22 | Mississippi State v. Alabama UNDER 61.5 | Top | 6-30 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
Mississippi State vs Alabama 7:05 EDT 4% 8-Unit Under the total Betting the Under when the road team has a lower rank than the host and is a double-digit underdog has seen the Under go 47-27-3 for 64% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If our dog is a 17.5 or greater underdog, then the Under has gone 16-4 for 80% winning Under bets. |
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10-22-22 | Marshall v. James Madison -11.5 | 26-12 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
Marshall vs James Madison 4% 8-Unit bets bet on James Madison minus the points 3:30 EDT Marshall is just 24-45 ATS after having lost two of their last three games in the last 20 seasons and 2-9 ATS over the last five seasons. After shocking Notre Dame in a 26-21 win in Week 2 the Herd has been stumbling losing 3 of their last 4 and the last four games to the spread. James Madison is coming off their first loss of the season and are 5-1 SUATS. |
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10-22-22 | UCLA +6.5 v. Oregon | Top | 30-45 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
UCLA vs Oregon 3:30 EDT 4% 8-Unit best bet on the UCLA Bruins plus the points Well, this is a big showdown with monumental consequences for the loser of this PAC-12 matchup. UCLA is one of the nine remaining undefeated teams in the nation. After Week 7, teams that are undefeated and facing a foe that has won 80% or more of their games and has covered the spread by 49 or more points over their last five games has earned a 19-6-1 ATS record good for 76% winning bets. Teams that are 6-0 on the season and facing a foe coming off a double-digit win and with a total between 65 and 72 points are 5-1 SUATS for 83% winning bets. Bet UCLA |
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10-22-22 | Rice -2.5 v. Louisiana Tech | Top | 42-41 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 58 m | Show |
Rice vs LA-Tech 3:00 EDT 4% best bet on the Rice Owls minus the points Betting on road favorites facing an opponent that is allowing 31 or more points per game and is coming off two consecutive games in which a combined score of 60 or more points was scored has earned a 235-52 SU record for 82% and 180-103-4 ATS for 64% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the total in the game is between 55 and 60 points, the record improves to 67-12 for 85% and 53-25-1 ATS for 68% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. |
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10-22-22 | Toledo v. Buffalo +7.5 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 4 h 55 m | Show |
Toledo vs Buffalo 4% 8-Unit best bet on Buffalo plus the points Buffalo is 12-3 ATS when facing a strong offense averaging 37 or more points-per-game. Buffalo is 13-3 ATS after winning four of their last five games. Toledo is running hot but prone to a regression matchup here against Buffalo; Toledo is averaging 38.4 PPG and posting a 10.5 yards-per-point, but their defense has suffered allowing 31 PPG and a 12.6 yards-per-point ratio. Teams, like Buffalo, that have covered or pushed against the spread and won all four games have gone on to a 16-6 ATS record for 73% winners. |
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10-22-22 | Syracuse +14.5 v. Clemson | Top | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 3 h 57 m | Show |
Syracuse vs Clemson 4% best bet on Syracuse plus the points Noon EDT Betting on road underdogs between 9 and 17.5 points in a conference matchup when the total is between 45 and 50 points has earned a 105-58-7 for 64% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. If our dog is undefeated on the season, they have gone 9-4 ATS for 69% winning bets last 10 seasons. |
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10-22-22 | Indiana v. Rutgers -3 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 3 h 56 m | Show |
Indiana vs Rutgers Noon EDT 4% 8-Unit best Bet on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights minus the points Hoosiers are just 4-15 ATS in road games after gaining less than 100 rushing yards in two consecutive games. Hoosiers head coach Allen is 1-9 ATS following a game with a –2 or worse turnover margin. From the predictive model, Indiana is expected to gain less than 3 yards per carry and for Rutgers to score 28 or more points. Rutgers is 17-0 SU and 13-3-1 ATS in hoe games scoring 28 or ore points and allowing less than 3 yards per carry. Indiana is 1-18 SU and 6-13 ATS in road games rushing for less than 3 yards per carry and allowing 28 or more points. |
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10-20-22 | Virginia +3 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 16-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
Virginia vs Georgia Tech 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Virginia Cavaliers plus the points Betting on dogs of 3 to 10 points in games played from weeks 5 to 9, are coming off two consecutive double-digit losses to conference foes are 39-46 SU, 57-25-3 ATS for 70% winning bets since the start of the 2013 season spanning 10 season and only the 2021, season had a losing record at 2-5 ATS. Teams like UVA that have covered the spread on no more than of their last six games, lined as a dog of not more than 4.5 points and with the total between 45 and 50 points has earned a 15-9 ATS record good for 63% winning bets. |
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10-17-22 | Broncos +4.5 v. Chargers | Top | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
Denver vs LA Chargers 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Broncos plus the points These two NFL teams are heading in opposite directions with the Broncos vastly underperforming losing their last two games to the Las Vegas Raiders and the Indianapolis Colts by nine and three points respectively. Their last lost to the Colts was a dreadful performance scoring just nine points and somehow losing 12-9 as 3-point home favorites. Despite the acquisition of all-pro quarterback Russell Wilson, the offense has been positively pathetic ranking dead last averaging 15 points-per-game and with a .236 points-per-play ratio. They have gone Under their team total by combined 41 points in just five games The betting markets opened this game with the Chargers favored by -6 points and the public went to the window quickly and often to bet the Chargers. Despite, 65% of the tickets bet being on the Chargers, the line has declined to make the Chargers a 4.5-point home favorite. If more bettors have bet on the Chargers accounting for 65% of all bets placed how could the line drop? The ‘sharps’ are the reason why the line has reversed course and they are the larger bettors including professionals. The ‘sharps’ account for 55% of the total money booked, but just 35% of the tickets. Generally, professionals look for contrarian opportunities that feature a struggling road team and the following situational trends and angles support a betting opportunity on the Broncos. Underdogs who failed to make the playoffs last season are off to a solid 36-23 ATS (61%) this season Chargers are 8-16 ATS (33%) in home games and facing a strong defense allowing 6 or fewer yards-per-play (YPPL) From my predictive models, the Chargers are expected to commit two turnovers Chargers are 0-7-1 ATS in home games in which they committed two turnovers Broncos are 11-4-1 ATS (73%) when priced as a dog and forcing two turnovers. |
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10-16-22 | Bills v. Chiefs OVER 54 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
Buffalo vs Kansas City 10-Unit 5% MAX Best Bet Over the posted total Betting Over in games played form Week 6 on out, with the road team in the matchup outgaining their opponents by at least 1.33 YPPL and are coming off 400 more total yards in their previous game has seen the Over go 22-12 for 65% winning bets since 1989 and 13-4 Over for 77% winning bets if the road team is outgaining their opponents by at least 1.50 YPPL. Plus, 9-1 Over if they are outgaining their opponents by 2.0 or more YPPL. The Bills are outgaining their opponent by a league-best 2.18 YPPL. From the predictive model, the Bills and Chiefs are expected to gain at least 5.75 YPPL. The Bills are 10-1 Over and the Chiefs 21-9-2 Over for 70% when these measures have been met or exceeded in games played over the past five seasons. |
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10-16-22 | Bengals v. Saints +3 | Top | 30-26 | Loss | -101 | 4 h 35 m | Show |
Cincinnati vs New Orleans 4% 8-Unit Best Bet Over the posted total 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the New Orleans Saints plus the points Betting the Over with a team, Bengals, coming off a road loss as a dog and are now priced as a road favorite in a game with a total of 42.5 or more points and is NOT coming off the BYE week has seen the OVER go 29-10-2 for 74% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. From my predictive model, both teams are expected to score 20 or more points and the Saints are expected to gain at least 125 rushing yards. In past games, the Saints are 15-1 SU, 11-4-1 ATS, and 15-1 Over-Under when meeting or exceeding these performance measures. |
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10-16-22 | Bengals v. Saints OVER 42.5 | Top | 30-26 | Win | 100 | 4 h 34 m | Show |
Cincinnati vs New Orleans 4% 8-Unit Best Bet Over the posted total 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the New Orleans Saints plus the points Betting the Over with a team, Bengals, coming off a road loss as a dog and are now priced as a road favorite in a game with a total of 42.5 or more points and is NOT coming off the BYE week has seen the OVER go 29-10-2 for 74% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. From my predictive model, both teams are expected to score 20 or more points and the Saints are expected to gain at least 125 rushing yards. In past games, the Saints are 15-1 SU, 11-4-1 ATS, and 15-1 Over-Under when meeting or exceeding these performance measures. |
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10-16-22 | Bucs v. Steelers OVER 46 | Top | 18-20 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 34 m | Show |
Buccaneers vs Steelers 4% 8-Unit Best Bet Over the posted total Steelers are 7-3 Over in home games and facing a solid defense allowing 17 or fewer points per game over the past 10 seasons. The Steelers are 27-14 Over-Under 66% in home games and coming off two straight losses and 12-4 Over following three straight losses. They are 13-7 Over in home games and on a 3 or more ats losing streak. The Steelers scored just three points in last week's loss to Buffalo despite ending the game with 364 yards. It was the second-most yards the Steelers have ever had in a game where the team failed to score more than three points (389 yards in 20-3 loss to 49ers in 2011) in the Super Bowl era. |
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10-16-22 | Vikings v. Dolphins +3 | Top | 24-16 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 33 m | Show |
Minnesota vs Miami 4% best bet on the Miami Dolphins plus the points Betting on underdogs including pick-em that are coming off an upset road loss and has won between 51 and 60% of their games on the season has earned a 28-24 SU record, 34-18 ATS record good for 65.4% winning bets over the past 25 seasons and if a non-divisional matchup has earned a 17-11 SU record and 20-8 SATS mark good for 71.4% winning bets. This is a contrarian bet. Miami’s top two quarterbacks, Tua Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater, are in the concussion protocol and have lost two straight games after starting 3-0. Plus, Miami will start a rookie quarterback Sunday against the Minnesota Vikings (4-1). With Skylar Thompson at quarterback, the Dolphins will hope to build on last week's best rushing output of the year and correct their issues in defending the pass and they have had a full week for Thompson to work with the first unit, correct his footwork mistakes, and create some good timing with the wideouts. |
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10-16-22 | Patriots +2.5 v. Browns | Top | 38-15 | Win | 100 | 4 h 33 m | Show |
New England vs Cleveland 4% 8-Unit Best bet on the Patriots plus the points Betting on road underdogs including pick-em following a game in which they committed no more than one turnover and taking on a foe that has had a turnover margin of –1 or worse in each of their past two games has led to a 32-9-2 ATS record good for 78% winning bets over the past five seasons The Patriots are coming off a 29-0 win over the Lions, the 17th time team coached by Bill Belichick has shut out their opponent. That is more shutouts than the combined total of the next three active coaches with the most team shutouts (John Harbaugh (5), Mike Tomlin (5) and Mike McCarthy (4). |
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10-13-22 | Washington Commanders v. Bears OVER 37.5 | Top | 12-7 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
Washington vs Chicago 4% 8-Unit best bet Over the posted total, currently at 38 and may get to 37.5 points ahead of the 8:15 PM EST kickoff. Commanders are 16-2-1 Over for 89% winning bets in road games and coming off a game in which they gained 300 or more passing yards since 2010. |
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10-13-22 | Temple +23.5 v. Central Florida | Top | 13-70 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 50 m | Show |
Temple vs UCF 4% 8-Unit best bet on UCF minus the points I loaded this up wrong and the bet is ON UCF !!! Betting on favorites of 23.5 to 31.5points following two consecutive wins by 17 or more points and facing an opponent that scored three or fewer points in the first half of their previous game has earned an outstanding 56-1 SU and 39-16-2 ATS for 71% winning bets since 2010. |
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10-13-22 | Baylor -3.5 v. West Virginia | Top | 40-43 | Loss | -102 | 28 h 49 m | Show |
Baylor vs West Virginia 4% 8-Unit best bet on Baylor minus the points Betting on road teams using the money line that are coming off an upset loss to a conference foe, has a winning record not higher than 60% on the season and facing a losing record foe has earned a 26-16 ATS mark for 62% winning bets and if that foe averaged fewer than 4 yards per rush in their previous game the record goes to 33-9 SU and 12-5-1 ATS for 71% wining bets. From the predictive model, Baylor is 24-4 SU and 22-6 ASTS for 79% winning bets when scoring 28+ points and having the same or fewer turnovers than their opponents in games played over the past five seasons. |
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10-12-22 | Blackhawks v. Avalanche OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
Chicago vs Colorado From the predictive model Chicago is 25-12 Over when allowing 37 or ore shots on goalin games played over the last three seasons; 37-16-1 Over when Colorado has taken 37+ shots on goal in game splayed over the past three seasons. |
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10-12-22 | Phillies v. Braves OVER 7 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -125 | 4 h 21 m | Show |
Philadelphia vs Atlanta 4% 8-Unit best bet OVER the total There could be several rain delays in this game and it may finish after the Dodgers and Padres game is complete. I think that adds to the Over probability and although remote do not be surprised if one of these managers opts in with an opener if the radar looks bad enough so that an imminent rain delay will occur within the first three innings. Phils are 52-30 Over following a win this season. Braves are 12-3-1 Over in home games when the total has been 7 or 7.5 runs this season. From the predictive mode, games that saw both teams use 9 or more pitchers in the playoffs and had a total between 7.5 and 8.5 runs saw the Over go 124-82-4 for 60% winning bets over the past five seasons. If either of the starters did not walk a batter in their previous start the Over has soared to 36-20 record good for 65% wining bets over the past five playoff seasons. |
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10-12-22 | UL-Lafayette +10.5 v. Marshall | Top | 23-13 | Win | 100 | 4 h 20 m | Show |
LA Lafayette vs Marshall 4% 8-Unit best Bet on the Ragin Cajuns plus the points. Marshall is just 7-19 ATS in a home game when the total has been between 42.5 and 49.5 points over the past 10 seasons; 21-45 ATS after having lost two of their last three games SU; 15-34-1 ATs following two games io which they committed no more than a single turnover in each. From my predictive model, LAL is expected to score 24 or more points and have fewer turnovers than Marshall. In past games in which they achieved those measures, they have gone on to earn a 27-2 SU mark and 20-8-1nATS record good for 71% winning bets over the past five seasons and when priced as the dog, 7-1 SUATS for 88% winning bets over the past five seasons. |
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10-11-22 | Guardians +180 v. Yankees | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
Cleveland vs Yankees 4% 8-Unit best Bet on the Guardians using the moneyline The New York Yankees dominated the Cleveland Guardians during the regular season winning five of six meetings, but all six games took place in the first half of the season when the Yankees dominated everyone building a 15.5 game lead in the AL East standings on July 8. The Yankees had the 17th best record of the 32 teams with a 38-40 record from July 9. The Guardians had the second-best record in MLB since July 9 with an outstanding 55-29 record. The Yankees’ Aaron Judge masked many of the fundamental flaws his team possessed, but in the playoffs those weaknesses are revealed. MLB Betting and Money Percentages Currently, the Yankees are getting the bulk of the public betting interest with 67% of the tickets bet on the Yankees. However, those Yankees bets only account for 24% of the money bet reflecting that the ‘sharps’ (large bettors) are on the Guardians. The 43% difference between ticket and money percentages is by far the highest on the board with the other three games all less than 10% differentials. Situational Trends and Angles · The Guardians are 29-15 making 14 units on the moneyline when facing an AL opponent allowing 4.4 or fewer runs per game and is batting .255 or lower in games played in the second half of this season. o The under in this situation has earned a 27-15-2 record good for 64% winning Under bets. · The Guardians are 40-19 making 21 units on the moneyline when facing a team that is averaging .6 or fewer errors per game in games played in the second half of this season. |
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10-09-22 | Eagles -5 v. Cardinals | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 13 m | Show |
Philadelphia Eagles vs Arizona Cardinals 5% MAX 10-Unit best Bet on the Eagles minus the points As I had mentioned on several occasions before the preseason started, I truly believed the Eagles were one of the most underrated teams in many seasons- not just this season. They know this is a letdown spot for them with travel to the Est Coast and they will be more than ready to play and fully focused to get to 5-0 on the season. The Phillies winning their playoff series last night, whether they know it or not, will feed into this club too, and they will hardly want to come back home to Philadelphia having let down the fan base. This is an intangible but one I think favors the Eagles in a big way. Cardinals are 0-8 ATS in home games after outgaining the previous opponent by 100 or more total yards in games played over the past three seasons; 8-15 ATS in home games when the total has been 45 or more points spanning the last three seasons. Cardinals head coach Kingsbury is 2-9 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record. From my predictive model we are expecting the Eagles to rush the ball for at least 150 yards and score at least 24 or more points. In past games in which the Cardinals allowed 150 or more rushing yards and allowed 24 or more points they have gone 3-11-1 ATS for 21% over the past five seasons. The Eagles are 12-2-1 for 86% winning bets when rushing the ball for 150 or more yards and scoring 24 or more points in games played over the last five seasons. |
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10-08-22 | Fresno State v. Boise State -7.5 | Top | 20-40 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
Fresno State vs Boise State 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on Boise State minus the points 9:45 PM EST Fresno head coach Tedford is 0-7 ATS following a game in which he gained 225 or fewer yards. From the predictive model, we are expecting Fresno to gain less than 100 rushing yards and for Boise to score at least 28 points. In past games in which Boise State scored 28 or more points and held their opponent to less than 100 RY has seen them earn a 61-4 SU record and a 45-17-2 SATS mark good for 73% winning bets since 2006. If the game is at home, BSU is 31-1 SU and 21-9-1 ATS for 70% winning bets. |
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10-08-22 | Kansas State v. Iowa State +1.5 | Top | 10-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
K-State vs Iowa State 5% 10-Unit Best Bet on the Iowa State Cyclones Iowa State has won three of its last four games versus Kansas State after the Wildcats had won each of the previous 10 contests. The last matchup that was played in Ames resulted in a 45-0 victory for the Cyclones. The Wildcats (4-1, 2-0 Big 12) have lost two straight games to the Cyclones (3-2, 0-2) and have fallen in their last two trips to Ames. Their loss in 2018 broke a 10-game winning streak vs. Iowa State. The Wildcats are within three games of evening the all-time series, which Iowa State leads 52-49-4. The Wildcats enter Saturday's game riding a two-game winning streak -- impressive victories at Oklahoma and against Texas Tech. Wildcats quarterback Adrian Martinez has earned Big 12 Player of the Week honors in each of the past two weeks, getting the offensive honor following the win over Oklahoma and newcomer honors after downing Texas Tech. From the predictive models, we are looking for ISU to gain at least 150 rushing yards, score 27 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers. IN past games in which the Cyclones met these measures they have earned a 40-10 SU record and 40-9-1 ATS for 82% winning bets since 1989 and is 16-3 SU and 15-4 ATS for 79% winning bets over the last five seasons. |
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10-08-22 | North Carolina +3.5 v. Miami-FL | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
North Carolina vs Miami (FLA) 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on UNC plus the points Betting on teams that are facing an opponent coming off a horrid loss priced as a 20 or greater favorite has produced a 97-201 SU record, 113-83-3 ATS record good for 58% winning bets since 1989. If these failures were ranked against an unranked team in that terrible loss, the next opponent playing them has earned a 19-30 SU record, but a solid 31-17-1 SATS mark good for 65% winning bets. If our team we are betting on is the dog, they go just 9-26 SU, but 23-11-1 ATS for 68% winning bets. If that opponent was ranked while enduing their most recent monster loss and now fell out of the Top-25 now, their opponents feast on the in a big way going 11-13 SU and 17-7-1 ATS for 71% winning bets. |
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10-08-22 | Virginia Tech +15 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 29-45 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
Virginia Tech vs Pittsburgh
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10-08-22 | Wisconsin -10 v. Northwestern | Top | 42-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
Wisconsin vs Northwestern 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on Wisconsin minus the points 3:30 start time Wisconsin is 20-5 ATS for 80% following a game in which they were outrushed by 125 or more yards. NWU is just 1-9 ASTS following a game that played UNDER the total. Wisconsin is 10-2 ATS after allowing 31 or more points in each of their last two games. NWU head coach Fitzgerald is 0-6 ATS following a game in which they covered the spread but did not win the game. He is also 8-18 SATS following a game in which they forced three or more turnovers. Betting on favorites between 10.5 and 21 points that are on a two or more game losing streak and have a win percentage between 40% and 50% on the season (Wisconsin is 2-3 for 40% win percentage) have gone 47-3 SU and 37-13 ATS for 74% winning bets since 2010. |
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10-08-22 | TCU -7.5 v. Kansas | Top | 38-31 | Loss | -101 | 2 h 6 m | Show |
TCU vs Kansas 4% best bet on TCU minus the points Noon EDT kickoff Despite the line movement there is still quite a bit of value left to bet TCU minus the points. Kansas has attracted tons of public money given their Cinderella start and College Game Day is making their first appearance to Lawrence, Kansas. The sharps are betting TCU. Teams involved in a matchup of teams with win percentages of 80% and higher and facing an opponent that has covered the spread by a total of 49 or more points over their last five games have gone 46-23-3 ATS for 67% winning bets since 2015. |
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10-07-22 | Padres +137 v. Mets | Top | 7-1 | Win | 137 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
San Diego vs NY Mets 4% 8-Unit Bet on the Padres using the moneyline Betting on road underdogs between +125 and +175 coming off a loss to a divisional rival priced as a favorite, starting a pitcher that walked no more than a single batter in each of his last two starts has earned 73-62 record for 54% averaging a +142 wager and earning a 30% ROI since the 2004 season. If it is the first game a series in the regular and playoff seasons, these dogs have gone 45-33 avg a +145 wager and a 40% ROI. |
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10-07-22 | Mariners v. Blue Jays OVER 7 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
Seattle vs Toronto 4% 8-Unit bet Over the posted total Toronto is 20-8-1 Over in home games after batting .315 or better over their last five games in games played over the past two seasons; 14-5 Over following a game in which their bullpen blew a save; 60-27 when the total has been 7 or fewer runs. Seattle us 15-5 Over in road games when facing an AL starter with a 1.100 or lower WHIP in games played over the past two seasons. |
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10-07-22 | Phillies +100 v. Cardinals | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 60 m | Show |
Phillies vs Cardinals With the Phillies second ace Aaron Nola in top form and scheduled to pitch Game 2, the Cardinals must win Game 1 and defeat Zack Wheeler. The Cardinals were the last team in the playoffs to name their Game 1 starter and surprisingly they elected to go with left-hander Jose Quintana. The Phillies went 28-18 for 61% wins and 13-7 for 65% since the all-star break when facing a left-handed starter ranking 6th best in MLB. After eight MLB seasons, Wheeler, will make his first career playoff start today. Since joining the Phillies to start the 2020 season, Wheeler has earned a 30-19 record in 69 starts and has posted an ERA of 2.92 or lower in each of those seasons and finished second in last season's Cy Young Award voting. The one fundamental fact that I like most about the Phillies is that they rank best in the NL with 20.1% of their hits, including home runs, hit to the opposite field. The Phillies will be successful against Quintana by going with the pitch and hitting to all parts of the field, especially with men on base. Last, the Phillies made it to the playoffs while playing in the NL East division that had two teams, the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets, win 101 games. The Cardinals played in the NL Central that had two teams, the Cincinnati Reds, and Pittsburgh Pirates each lose 100 games. The NL East had a 413-377 record while the NL Central posted a weak 377-433 record, which was the worst divisional record this season. Phillies are 9-1 making 11 units in road games and coming two games in which they were outhit by 7 or more. |
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10-03-22 | Rams v. 49ers OVER 41.5 | Top | 9-24 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 17 m | Show |
LA Rams vs 49ers 4% 8-Unit Best bet on the OVER From the predictive models we are looking for the Rams to have the same or fewer turnovers and to score 24 or more points and when they have met or exceeded these measures they have gone on to a 35-4 SU and 28-9-2 Over for 76% winning bets over the past five seasons. Bet the Rams and consider an optional parlay Rams and Over using the money line. |
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10-02-22 | Chiefs v. Bucs | Top | 41-31 | Loss | -118 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
Chiefs vs Bucs 5% 10-UNIT Best Bet on the Bucs 4% 8-Unit best bet Over the posted total I am not betting this as a parlay and instead will bet 75% of my normal 10-Unit amount on the Bucs prior to kickoff and then IF the Chiefs score a touchdown first or get a 7-point first half lead, I will add the remaining 25% using the available in-Game betting line on the Bucs. The total will be bet with the 8-Unit normal amount prior to kickoff. Now, if you have a promo for a 1-game odds boost from the likes of BetMGM, then make that bet with no more than 2.5 Unit amount. Betting on teams that made the playoffs last season, won 12 games last season and are coming off a loss priced as a home favorite and with the current game having a total of 46.5 or fewer points has earned a 38-18-4 ATS record good for 68% winning bets since 2015. Betting Over the posted total when lined between 42.5 and 49.5 points in. a matchup of teams that have outscored their opponents by 7 or more PPG and with one of the teams (KC) coming off two consecutive Under results as earned a 36-18 mark good for 67% winning Over bets. If both teams are coming off back-to-back Under results the Over is 14-2-2 ATS for 88% winning bets From the predictive mode, we are expecting both teams to score 24 or more points and with the Bucs having the same or fewer turnovers than the Chiefs. In past games in which the Bucs met or exceeded these performance measures has seen them earn a 25-3 SU record and 23-4-1 ATS mark good for 85% winning bets over the past five seasons. The Chiefs are 12-3 Over for 80% when scoring 24 or more points and having more turnovers than their opponent in games played over the past five seasons. |
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10-02-22 | Browns v. Falcons +1 | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 3 h 14 m | Show |
Browns vs Falcons 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Falcons Betting on a team that is averaging 32 or fewer rushes per game, is coming off an upset win in a game they had the ball for 32 or fewer minutes and now facing a foe that averages 32 or more minutes in time-of-possession has earned an outstanding 23-3 ATS record for 89% winning bets. If this team is the home team, they have gone 12-6 SU and 16-2 ATS for 89% winning bets since 2009. Falcons quarterback Marcus Mariota is playing with plenty of confidence. He earned first downs on 65.0 percent (13-for20) of his pass attempts in the Falcons' win at the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday. That's the second highest first-down percentage for Mariota in any of his 64 NFL starts. Mariota's highest percentage (73.3%, 11 of 15) came in his NFL debut, a 42-14 Tennessee Titans win at Tampa Bay in Week 1 of the 2015 season. |
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10-02-22 | Bills -3 v. Ravens | Top | 23-20 | Push | 0 | 3 h 13 m | Show |
Buffalo vs Baltimore 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Bills minus the points Betting on teams in a game lined between the 3’s and with one of the teams in the matchup coming off a road game in which they and their opponents both scored 24 or more points, with the game occurring between weeks 4 and 7 has earned a 19-10 SU record and 20-9 ATS mark good for 69% winning bets over the past five seasons without a single losing season. Eleven different Buffalo players caught at least one pass in Sunday's loss at Miami. That's a Bills franchise record for one game and the highest total for one team in an NFL game this season. The accomplishment how deep the Bills receivers are this season and also Josh Allen’s incredible accuracy and knowing where the holes are in the defense. I think the same thing happens here in Baltimore. |
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10-02-22 | Washington Commanders v. Cowboys OVER 41 | Top | 10-25 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 13 m | Show |
Commanders vs Cowboys 4% 8-Unit Best Bet OVER the posted total Betting on road teams that are being outgained by at least 50 yards per game on the season and are coming off two consecutive games in which they allowed 400 or more total yards in each of those two games has seen the Over go 43-21-3 for 67% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If our road team is coming off a game against a divisional foe (Eagles last week), the Over has gone 22-3-1 for 88% winnig bets over the past 10 seasons. Cooper Rush is the first NFL quarterback to win his first three career starts while passing for 200 or more yards and posting a passer rating of 90.0 or higher in each game. Quarterback starts were first tracked by the NFL in 1950. CeeDee Lamb is the only NFL player to be targeted for more than 10 passes in each of his team's first three games this season (11 in Weeks 1 and 2, 12 in Week 3). Lamb caught only two passes in the Cowboys' opener but had seven receptions in Week 2 and eight in Week 3. This matchup has all of the markings of a track meet and even a sprinkle on the first half Over is attractive. |
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09-29-22 | Dolphins +3.5 v. Bengals | Top | 15-27 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
Miami Dolphins vs Cincinnati Bengals 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Miami Dolphins plus the points The Miami defense was on the field for nearly 40 minutes in their dramatic 21-19 over the Buffalo Bills last week. The impact of the extra time of the field is minimal since we are in the beginning part of the season. They did play a large number of minutes, but it has not been in consecutive games. I do expect their secondary to be significantly better tonight than they have been played in the first three games. Teams playing on Thursday Night Football and had 27.5 or fewer minutes in time of possession in their previous game that they won has earned a 19-17 SU record and 22-13-1 ATS mark good for 63% winning bets. Betting on road underdogs including pick-em from week-4 on to the end of the regular seasons that are scoring 24 or more PPG on the season and coming off a win of three or fewer points has earned a 78-42-3 ATS record good for 65% winning bets since 1989 and a highly profitable 22-6 ATS record good for 79% winning bets. Bet the Miami Dolphins plus the points and if your moneyline is at +150 or higher, then add a sprinkle amount, pizza money size, with that moneyline. |
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09-26-22 | Cowboys +1 v. Giants | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
Dallas Cowboys vs NY Giants 5% 10-Unit Best Bet on the Cowboys getting the point. The moneyline will be cheaper vig, but I recommend to only bet the moneyline at -105 or better. With the Philadelphia Eagles destroying the Washington Commanders and now at 3-0 for the season, this becomes a very important game for these two fellow NFC East Rivals. The Cowboys are without their quarterback and All=Pro Dak Prescott, but his backup Cooper Rush has stepped in and played quite well against the Cincinnati Bengals last week. The Cowboys defense also stepped up big and will again tonight against the Giants. Teams, like Dallas, that are coming off an upset win priced as an underdog and now playing on Monday Night against a divisional foe and priced as a dog of 4 or fewer points including pick-em have gone 10-4 SU and ATS for 71.4% winning bets. Teams, like Dallas, that had a winning record last season and coming off an upset win, and now playing against a divisional foe on Monday Night priced as the underdog including pick-em are 8-1 ATS for 89% winning bets. Dallas head coach McCarthy is 17-3 ATS in road games when the total has been priced between 35.5 and 42 points for his career. From the predictive model, The Cowboys defense will keep the Giants from scoring 17 or more points and will allow fewer than 175 passing yards. In past games played since 1989, teams that have allowed less than 175 passing yards and fewer than 17 points have gone on to a 943-300-48 ATS record good for 76% winning bets, 227-49 SU for 82% and 215-54-7 ATS for 80% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. |
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09-25-22 | Ravens v. Patriots +2.5 | 37-26 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 19 m | Show | |
Baltimore Ravens vs New England Patriots 1:00 EDT 4% 8-UNIT best bet on the Patriots plus the points. Betting on underdogs of 4.5 or fewer points in the first four week of the season that averaged 24 or more PPG in their previous season and priced as an underdog including pick-em games has earned a solid 31-25 SU record and 38-18 ATS betting mark good for 68% winning wagers since 2018. With change comes new opportunities. And Patriots quarterback Mac Jones is experiencing new freedom in New England's revamped offense. In last week's win at Pittsburgh, the Patriots mixed in some run-pass option plays, which were a staple of the offense Jones ran at Alabama. He also said he has been given a lot more freedom to give his receivers more opportunities on deep "50-50" one-on-one opportunities. Jones had success last week, connecting with Nelson Agholor on a 44-yard touchdown. The Ravens allowed Tua Tagovailoa to throw for 469 yards and six touchdowns against them last weekend, and Miami rallied from a 21-point fourth-quarter deficit to win 42-38. Now the Raven’s secondary, limited by injuries recently, goes up against Jones and New England. |
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09-25-22 | Bills v. Dolphins +5 | 19-21 | Win | 100 | 2 h 18 m | Show | |
Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins 4% 8-Unit Best bet on the Dolphins plus the points Bet on home underdogs that are coming off a game in which they trailed by 21 or more points at the half and taking on a guest that is coming off a win of 14 or more points has earned a 33-20 ATS record good for 62.3% winning bets. If the road team is coming off two consecutive double-digit wins, our dog improves to 17-9 ATS for 65.4% winning bets. Also, betting on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have gained at least 7 yards per pass attempt in each of their two previous games and taking on a visitor that is coming off a game in which they allowed 5.6 or fewer yards per pass attempt has gone on to earn 24-13-1 ATS record good for 65% winning bets over the last five seasons. Over the past 20 seasons, if the matchup defined above is a divisional one, the record has been a highly consistent and highly profitable 30-14 ATS for 68.2% winning bets. Plus, road favorites that have outscored their opponents by 50 or more points in total over their last two games and facing a divisional host are 1-7 ATS for 12% winning bets. Bet the Fish. |
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09-25-22 | Lions +6 v. Vikings | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 2 h 18 m | Show | |
Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings | 1:00 EST 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Lions plus the points and sprinkle the moneyline Betting on road underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points that are scoring 28 or more PPG on the season has produced a 40-73 SU record for 35% upset wins and 74-27-2 ATS record good for 67% winning bets since 2015 and has earned a 50-100-2 SU record and 96-53-3 ATS record for 64.4% winning bets over the last 10 seasons and has NOT had a losing ATS record ion any of those 10 seasons. When Jared Goff's pass on the last play of the game in Detroit last year sailed across the goal line and landed in the arms of a rookie named Amon-Ra St. Brown to stick Minnesota with a stunning defeat, the identity of the receiver seemed rather insignificant at the time. That dramatic ending on Dec. 5 also turned out to be the beginning of a remarkable run for St. Brown, who has blossomed into a legitimate star of a potent Lions offense. The fourth-round draft pick out of USC has eight or more receptions in eight consecutive games, tied for the longest such streak in NFL history. Many Vikings cornerbacks, safeties, and linebackers were carved up last week in Philadelphia by quarterback Jalen Hurts in their 24-7 loss, and rookie Akayleb Evans took over for the terrible play of Cameron Dantzler Sr. for much of the second half opposite veteran Patrick Peterson. So, Goff is playing with confidence and perhaps more so than any other time of his career. The Lions have scored a touchdown in 15 straight quarters for the longest such streak in franchise history and the NFL's longest active run. They have scored at least 35 points in the first two games of a season for the first time since 1970. |
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09-24-22 | Kansas State +13.5 v. Oklahoma | Top | 41-34 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
Oklahoma vs Kansas State 5% 10-Unit best Bet on the Kansas State plus the points and sprinkle a bit more on the moneyline. There will be at least three more College Football releases for the Saturday card, so be sure to check back early Saturday morning by 7 AM EST for those additional best bets. A little history and background. Sooner head coach Brent Venables was a walk-on linebacker for Kansas State in the early 1990s and carved out a role with the Wildcats, then began his coaching career there before joining Bob Stoops' Oklahoma staff after the 1998 season. Venables has coached against his alma mater multiple times, but Saturday's game will be his first against Kansas State as head coach. Wildcats quarterback Adrian Martinez also has had strong success against the Sooners. Martinez was Nebraska's quarterback last season in a 23-16 loss at Oklahoma, throwing for 289 yards and a touchdown with one interception and ran for 34 yards and another score. Oklahoma snapped a two-game losing streak against Kansas State with a 37-31 win in last year's tilt between these teams in Manhattan. Four of the last five games between these teams have been decided by seven points or fewer. K-State is 28-13 ATS coming off a game in which they scored 14 or fewer points. Sooners are 7-19 ATS in home games allowing 14 or fewer points in back-to-back games. From the predictive model, we are looking for K-State to rush the ball for at least 150 yards and score 27 or more points. When they have done so in past games, they have gone on to a 19-1 SU record and 15-4-1 ATS record good for 79% winning bets. |
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09-24-22 | Middle Tennessee State v. Miami-FL UNDER 53.5 | Top | 45-31 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
Miami (Fla) vs Middle Tennessee State 3:30 PM EDT 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Under currently priced at 53 points Betting on home favorites that have won two of their last three games and with a total between two important betting number of 49.5 and 56 points and is a matchup of teams that have won between 60 and 80% of their games has earned 29-17 Under record good for 63% winning bets over the past five seasons. From the predictive model, MTST is 20-3-1 Under in road games when scoring 17 or fewer points since 2010. When they have scored 14 or fewer points the Under has earned a 16-3-1 for 84% winning bets since 2010. |
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09-24-22 | Florida +11 v. Tennessee | Top | 33-38 | Win | 100 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
Florida vs Tennessee 3:30 PM EST 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Florida plus the points and sprinkle the moneyline My research simply states that this is just too many points in this rivalry dominated by Florida. Vols head coach Heupel is 3-13 ATS after gaining 7.25 or more yards-per-playing his previous game. From the predictive model, we are looking for Florida to rush the ball for at least 150 yards and score 31 or more points. When they have done so in past games, they have gone on to a 76-1 SU record and 59-15-1 ATS record good for 80% winning bets over the past 15 seasons and 22-0 SU and 15-6-1 ATS for 72% winning bets over the past five seasons. |
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09-24-22 | Maryland v. Michigan UNDER 64.5 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 4 h 8 m | Show |
Maryland vs Michigan Noon EDT 4% best bet on the UNDER in this matchup currently priced at 64.5 points Home teams playing their third consecutive home tilt and are coming off two consecutive wins of 14 or more points and now in a game with a total of at least 60 points has seen the Under go 45-23-1 for 66.2% winning bets since 2006. If in a conference matchup then the Under improves to 27-12 for 70% winning bets. Bet the Under. |
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09-22-22 | Steelers v. Browns UNDER 38.5 | Top | 17-29 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
Steelers vs Browns 4% best bet on the Under the points The Browns blew a 13-point lead with just 1:55 left in last week’s 31-30 loss to the New Your Jets, who had not won a game played in September since 2018. The Under is 9-1 for 90% in divisional matchups played in primetime Thursday and Monday tilts with a team that enjoyed a double-digit lead only to fail to win the game and were priced as home favorites Steelers are 20-6-2 Under when on the road and following a loss of three or fewer points and 11-3-2 Under if the game is against a divisional foe. The Browns are 18-8-1 Under for 70% wins in home games following a defeat of three or fewer points. The Browns are 29-11 Under for 73% wins when playing at home and coming off a home loss and 14-4 Under for 78% winning bets if the game is a against a divisional foe. From the predictive models, both teams are projected to gain fewer than 5.25 yards-per-play and the Under in games plays with a total of 42.5 or fewer points has gone 120-32-2 for 79% winning bets over the past five seasons. |
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09-18-22 | Texans +10 v. Broncos | Top | 9-16 | Win | 100 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
Houston Texans vs Denver Broncos 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Houston Texans plus the points and sprinkle the money line. Also take no more than .5% amount and create a money line parlay with the Texans and the Jets – just in case they both pull of the upset wins. Betting on road underdogs in the first four weeks of the regular season that allowed 325 or more yards-per-game in the previous season and coming off a game in which their defense allowed 450 or more total yards has earned an 18-35 SU record and 36-14-3 ATS for 72% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. And if the matchup is against a non-divisional foe the record improves to 11-25 SU and 26-8-2 ATS for 77% winning bets. |
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09-18-22 | Bengals v. Cowboys +7 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 6 h 50 m | Show |
Cincinnati Bengals vs Dallas Cowboys 4% 8-Unit Best bet on the Dallas Cowboys plus the points and a little sprinkle on the moneyline. I see this as a massive overreaction to the recent events surrounding the Cowboys and now represents a darn good betting opportunity. Even with Dak Prescott out of the lineup, there is a solid betting system that is not dependent on who is running the offense. Betting on underdogs that were top-level passing teams from last season that averaged 275 or more passing yards per game and are coming off a game in which they allowed seven or more passing yards-per-attempt has earned an outstanding 26-10 ATS good for 72% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the total in the current game is lower than 48 points, these home pups have gone 6-8 SU and 11-3 ATS for 79% winning bets. |
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09-18-22 | Jets +6.5 v. Browns | Top | 31-30 | Win | 100 | 2 h 27 m | Show |
New York Jets vs Cleveland Browns 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Jets plus the points and add a little sprinkle on the money line. With one of the NFL's best offensive lines and two talented backs, the Browns know what works for them and so does the Jets defense. The Jets shut down Baltimore's running game last week, holding the Ravens to just 63 yards and containing dynamic quarterback Lamar Jackson, who only got 17 on six attempts. Jets fall into a decent betting angle as well noting that road dogs of 4.5 to 6.5 points that are coming a game in which they averaged less than 6 yards gain after the catch and forced no more than one opponent turnover have produced a 37-22 ATS record good for 63% winning bets over the past five seasons. If the game occurs in the first four weeks of the season, these road dogs are 10-5 ATS for 67% winning bets. |
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09-18-22 | Bucs -2.5 v. Saints | Top | 20-10 | Win | 100 | 2 h 26 m | Show |
Tampa Bay Bucs vs New Orleans Saints 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Bucs minus the points. Betting on teams when the money line prices then between a -150 favorite and +150 dog in a divisional matchup that are coming off a win but failed to cover the spread have produced a healthy 29-10 ATS record over the past 15 seasons. This reflects the use of the money line to group and filter favorable betting situations. Saints head coach Allen is just 1-9 Ats following a game in which a combined 50 or more points were scored. From the predictive model, we are looking for the Bucs to score at least 24 points and average 6 or more yards-per-play. The Bucs are 22-3 SU and 17-8 ATS for 68% winning bets in road games, scoring 24 or more points, and gaining at least 5.25 Yards-per-play in games played over the past three seasons. |
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09-18-22 | Patriots -3 v. Steelers | Top | 17-14 | Push | 0 | 2 h 25 m | Show |
New England vs Pittsburgh 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Patriots minus the points From my predictive model, the Patriots are expected to score at least 24 points and outgain the Steelers by at least 100 total yards. In past games in which the Patriots met or exceeded these performance measures under head coach Belichick has led to a 81-3 SU record and 75-9 ATS record good for 89% winning bets. Under Belichick when he is coming off a loss and then outgains his next opponent by at least 100 total yards has produced a 25-1 SU record and a 23-3 ATS record. |
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09-15-22 | Chargers +4 v. Chiefs | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 3 h 1 m | Show |
Chargers vs Kansas City 4% best bet on the Chargers plus the points. and spronkle a bit more on the moneyline if it is at +150 or higher. Last week the Chiefs offense was in full gear as Patrick Mahomes completed 30 of 39 asses gaining 360 yards including five touchdowns in their 44-21 domination of the Arizona Cardinals, who were a vastly depleted squad. I do not see Mahomes throwing five touchdowns in this matchup against a defense I believe is one of the best in the AFC. Betting on road underdogs between 3.5 and 10 points facing an opponent that forced no more than one turnover in their previous game has earned a 153-105-1 ATS record good for 58% winning bets. If our road dog is lined between 3.5 and 7.5 points with the game taking place in the first four weeks of the regular season has produced a 31-15 ATS record good for 67.4% winning bets. From the predictive models, the Chargers defense is expected to force two or more turnovers and the offense is expected to gain at least 350 total yards. In past games in which the Chargers met or exceeded these performance measures has seen them go on to produce a highly profitable 52-16-2 ATS for 77% winners over the last 20 seasons. |
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09-14-22 | Dodgers -125 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -125 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
LA Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks 4% 8-Unit best Bet on the Dodgers using the money line Dodgers are scoring an average of 5.4 RPG on the season, 6.6 RPG over their last seven games, and the bullpen has been popwerful sporting a 1.40 ERA and a .983 WHIP over their last seven games. The Snakes are scoring 4.4 RPG on the season and 4.4 RPG over their last seven games with a bullpen in shambles sporting a horrid 8.06 ERA and a 1.925 EWHIP over their last seven games. Snakes skipper Lovullo is 40-94 losing 55 units on the money line after a game scoring no more than single run. |
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09-13-22 | Dodgers -190 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
LA Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks 4% 8-Unit best Bet on the Dodgers using the money line Betting on all favorites in a NL matchup with a moneyline between –175 and –250 starting a strong pitcher [posting an ERA of 3.75 or lower for the season and is a team that is batting .255 to .270 for the season and is facing a very good starter posting an ERA of 3.00 or lower for the season has produced a 32-8 record averaging a –194 moneyline bet and producing a 33% ROI since the start of the 2016 season. |
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09-13-22 | Sun v. Aces OVER 163 | Top | 71-85 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
WNBA Finals Betting the OVER in playoff games in which the two teams show under 40% in the previous matchup has seen the Over produce a 19-10-2 Over record good for 65.5% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If playing the same opponent in the playoffs the Over is a remarkable 14-2-2 Over for 88% winning bets. |
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09-13-22 | Yankees v. Red Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
NY Yankees vs Boston Red Sox 4% best bet Under the posted total Betting on the Under when the total is between 8.5 sand 10 runs in games played in September with and AL road teams that are starting a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.100 or lower on the season has earned a 72-39-7 record good for 65% winning bets and a nice juicy 27% ROI since the start of the 2017 season. |
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09-13-22 | Orioles v. Nationals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
Baltimore vs Washington 4% 8-Unit Best Bet Over the posted total Betting the OVER when it is between 7 and 8.5 runs with a toad team starting a pitcher that allows.5 or fewer home runs per start and now facing an opponent with a starting pitcher who is winless after five or more starts on the season has earned an 84-58-6 record for 62% winning bets over the last 15 seasons and a nice 25% ROI. |
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09-12-22 | Broncos v. Seahawks +7 | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
Denver vs Seattle Monday Night Football 5% MAX Best Bet on the Seattle Seahawks plus the points I like a sprinkle on the money line not to exceed a .5% or 1-Unit amount One option for this matchup is to bet 70% pre-flop on the Seahawks plus the 6.5 points and then look for Denver to score first either by field goal or touchdown and then add the remaining 30% with the in-game line that may be as high as 10.5 to 11 points. We saw this in many games Sunday with an opponent trailing only to recover to tie the game and even win it. The Giants comeback being most notable in their road win over the Tennessee Titans. Betting against favorites in the first two weeks of the regular season in a matchup of teams that both failed to make the postseason in their previous season and with the dog having won between 5 and 9 games in their previous season has produced an exceptional 32-16-2 ATS record good for 67% winning bets since 2015. Plus, if our dog is getting 4.5 or more points has seen them go 10-3-1 ATS for 77% winning bets since 2015. Over the last 10 seasons, home dogs facing a divisional foe in the first three weeks of the regular season has earned a highly profitable 28-14-1 ATS record good for 67% winning bets. And the clincher knowing that these divisional home dogs of three or more points are 8-3-1 SU and 11-1 ATS for 92% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. |
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09-11-22 | Ravens v. Jets +6.5 | Top | 24-9 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 14 m | Show |
Baltimore Ravens vs New York Jets 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Jets plus the points There is uncertainty at the WR position for the Ravens coming into this season. They traded Marquis Brown, which leaves second-year sophomore Rashod Bateman as the top returning starter to the offense. The Jets will be a different team this season with rookie cornerback Sauce Gardner, the No. 4 overall pick, winning a starting job. Wide receiver Garrett Wilson, taken six picks later, will be a prominent part of the offense and defensive end Jermaine Johnson, picked 26th overall, will be in the rotation for perhaps the team's best and deepest unit, which I see capable of conatining or even Running back Breece Hall, a second round draft pick, is part of a strong 1-2 backfield punch with Michael Carter – and they are healthy. Betting on home underdogs un week 1 that are facing a conference foe that had a losing record in the previous season has earned a solid 20-9-1 ATS record good for 69% winning bets since 1992 and 10-3-1 ATS for 77% winning bets last 10 seasons. |
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09-11-22 | Saints v. Falcons +5.5 | Top | 27-26 | Win | 100 | 2 h 14 m | Show |
New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Falcons plus the points Since 2012, home dogs in a divisional matchup in week-1 action have gone 10-4-1 SU and 13-2 ATS for 87% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Over the last 10 seasons, betting on underdogs in the first month of the season that are facing a favorite that did not make it to the playoffs, but did win their last two games of the regular season has earned a highly profitable 28-6-1 ATS for 83% winning bets. Over the past five season, this set of parameters earned a 9-2 ATS record for 82% winning bets. |