Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-12-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Denver Nuggets -1.5 | 130-113 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
Portland is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for this game in Denver tonight. The Blazers played at home last night, and they needed a big comeback to beat Charlotte. They out-scored the Hornets 27-15 in the fourth quarter to win by 2 points (102-100), and off such a draining comeback, the Blazers will not have their legs as they have to play this game in the thin air and altitude of Denver. Portland is also playing their third game in four nights, and since they have two days off after this game before a 3-game home stand, this is an easy game for the Blazers to simply go thru the motions. 10* Play NUGGETS (-). |
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11-12-14 | Utah Jazz +7.5 v. Atlanta Hawks | 97-100 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show | |
Utah has alternated wins and losses over their last seven games, and they come into tonight’s game off a loss in Indiana. The Jazz are 3-1 SU and ATS off a loss this season, so they’ve shown an ability to bounce back strong off a loss. Utah has a lot of good, young talent that plays hard each and every game. The Jazz have one major weakness, and that is keeping opponents off the offensive glass. Utah’s blowout losses this season have come against strong offensive rebounding teams; the Pacers held a whopping 20-8 edge on second-chance points on Monday night. The Jazz get a big class relief for tonight’s game as Atlanta is one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the NBA as they rank 28th out of 30 teams. Utah’s biggest weakness will be a non-factor in this game. Atlanta is just 3-3 on the season despite playing a very weak schedule so far. The Hawks own two wins over the Knicks and a win over the Pacers; those are two of the worst teams in the East. All three of Atlanta’s wins have come by 10 points or less with two of their wins coming by 7 points or less. The Hawks are not built to blow teams out, and that is especially true for this game since Atlanta will be without starter DeMarre Carroll and second unit player Mike Scott due to injury. The Hawks have a limited rotation, and it will be altered tonight. Utah head coach Quin Snyder was an Atlanta assistant last season, and his job was to scout the Hawks’ opposition. That means he knows the Hawks’ strengths and weaknesses better than anyone, and that gives Snyder and the Jazz a huge edge in this game. We expect a close game throughout, so we’ll take the points with Utah on Wednesday night. 9* Play JAZZ (+). |
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11-11-14 | Sacramento Kings +6.5 v. Dallas Mavericks | 98-106 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
Sacramento's guard Darren Collison has been downgraded to doubtful for this game tonight due to a shoulder injury, however the pointspread has now risen a full point from +6.5 to +7.5 because of the news, so the Kings present solid value, especially considering Dallas is a poor defensive team. Sacramento was a team we expected improvement from last season, and we had a lot of success playing on the Kings in certain situations. The main reason was the presence of new head coach Mike Mallone who is a defensive mastermind. Now in Mallone’s second season, we expect the Kings to improve more, especially on the defensive end. The Kings come into tonight’s game with a 5-2 record despite playing a tough schedule that included the Warriors, Blazers, Clippers and Nuggets twice. Sacramento ranks #8 in defensive efficiency despite playing three teams ranked in the top ten in offensive efficiency. The Kings come in off a loss in Oklahoma City in their last game, but they were in a letdown spot for that game, so we can forgive that result. 10* Play KINGS (+). |
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11-10-14 | Detroit Pistons +9.5 v. Chicago Bulls | 91-102 | Loss | -113 | 6 h 43 m | Show | |
Detroit is 2-4 SU and an ugly 0-6 ATS this season. However, the Pistons were a market favorite coming into this season, and the posted pointspreads on their game reflected that. Despite winning just 29 games last season, Detroit has been a favorite in four of their six games this season. The Pistons have been underdogs just twice, and those games were on the road in their first two games of the year. After recent results, the Pistons are now installed as big underdogs for the first time this season, and the line presents good value to back Detroit. I still expect Detroit to be one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season despite their slow start. The results have yet to show on the scoreboard, but the Pistons’ play on the court has been much better than last season thanks to the presence of new head coach Stan Van Gundy. Chicago is certainly one of the best teams in the league when healthy, but the Bulls have had players going in and out of the lineup all season. Chicago’s best player, Derrick Rose, is hit or miss to play with nagging ankle injuries; Rose did miss shoot-around this morning. Regardless if Rose plays or not, this is a lot of points for Chicago to lay, especially since they have no cohesion right now. The Bulls have just one blowout win this season, and that came way back in their season opener against the terrible Knicks. Chicago’s wins since have come by 1, 8, 9, and 3 points. Detroit has played in close games as their four losses have come by an average of 7.3 points per game. This is a good spot for Detroit, so we’ll take the points with the Pistons on Monday night. 9* Play PISTONS (+). |
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11-08-14 | Boston Celtics v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 194 | 106-101 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
Boston and Chicago both played and won in high-scoring shootouts last night. The Celtics beat Indiana 101-98 while the Bulls beat Philadelphia 118-115. Off those impressive games, both teams must wheel right back and play tonight in Chicago. Not only is Boston playing on back-to-back nights, but they are also playing their third game in four nights. The Celtics will also be without Rajon Rondo in this game; he is having a screw removed from his hand. Boston’s Marcus Smart also suffered a bad ankle injury last night, and he will also miss this game. The absence of those players really alters Boston’s rotation, and since the Celtics have three days off after this game, we do not expect them to come with a focused effort. Chicago is also in a terrible scheduling spot for tonight’s game against Boston. The Bulls are playing on back-to-back nights with this also being their fourth game in five nights. Chicago’s offense was terrific last night as they shot 51.3% (40-78) from the field and 50% (12-24) from three-point land. The Bulls also got to the free throw line 34 times, hitting 76.5% (26-34) of their attempts. Chicago’s defense was not up to par last night as they allowed the Sixers to score 39 points in the fourth quarter. But that weak defensive effort was in correlation to the fast pace Philadelphia forced on Chicago. The Bulls are now back at home where they will dictate a slower pace against the Celtics who are missing their floor general. We expect a low-scoring game between the Celtics and Bulls on Saturday night. 9* Play UNDER the total. |
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11-07-14 | Sacramento Kings +5.5 v. Phoenix Suns | 114-112 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
Sacramento was a team we expected improvement from last season, and we had a lot of success playing on the Kings in certain situations. The main reason was the presence of new head coach Mike Mallone who is a defensive mastermind. Now in Mallone’s second season, we expect the Kings to improve more, especially on the defensive end. The Kings come into tonight’s game with a 4-1 record despite playing a tough schedule that included the Warriors, Blazers, Clippers and Nuggets twice. In three of those games, Sacramento held their opponent to 95, 94, and 92 points. Overall, Sacramento ranks #9 in defensive efficiency despite playing three teams ranked in the top ten in offensive efficiency. Phoenix comes in off a 102-91 home loss to Memphis on Wednesday night. The Suns are 3-2 on the season, but two of those wins have come against the awful Lakers. Their other win only came by 5 points over the struggling Spurs. Phoenix was a spread machine last season as the oddsmakers greatly undervalued the Suns all season. But that’s not going to repeat itself this season; the Suns are just 2-2-1 ATS, including 1-2-1 ATS as a favorite. Phoenix has a good offense, but their defense has not been good this season as they are allowing 102.8 points per game. Sacramento has played the better basketball this season, so we’ll take the points with the Kings in this game on Friday night. 10* Play KINGS (+). |
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11-05-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Golden State Warriors -4 | 104-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
The Los Angeles Clippers will be one of the best teams in the NBA at season’s end, but right now, they are simply playing themselves into the flow of the 82-game grind. The Clippers have sort of gone thru the motions early on, and their play against mediocre opposition has been less than impressive. Los Angeles only beat the Thunder by 3 points (93-90), the Lakers by 7 points (118-111), and the Jazz by 6 points (107-101). The Clippers lost 98-92 at home to the Kings. None of those four opponents are as good as the Warriors, and since the Clippers struggled with all of them, this game against Golden State doesn’t bode to well for Los Angeles. Golden State has played terrific basketball this season. The Warriors are a perfect 3-0 with all three wins coming by 5 points or more. Golden State and Los Angeles have played two common opponents, the Kings and Lakers. As noted above, the Clippers struggled with those teams while the Warriors beat the Kings by 18 points (95-77) and beat the Lakers by 23 points (127-104). Golden State’s defense has been tremendous, and right now they are ranked #1 in efficiency metrics. To compare, the Clippers rank #15 in defensive efficiency, and since they’ve played the same opponents as the Warriors, the difference is significant. Golden State is simply playing better basketball right now, so we’ll lay the points with the Warriors in this game on Wednesday night. 9* Play WARRIORS (-). |
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11-05-14 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Phoenix Suns OVER 193 | 102-91 | Push | 0 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
Memphis comes into this game in Phoenix with a perfect 4-0 record. The Grizzlies won three of those games with their defense, holding their opponents to 89 points or less. However, the Pacers and Bobcats have the two worst offenses in the NBA right now while the Hornets were coming off back-to-back games in which they scored more than 100 points. Memphis’ lone game against a good offense came at home against Minnesota, and the Grizzlies gave up 101 points and allowed the Timberwolves to play at their preferred fast pace. Memphis will now face a very good Suns’ offense on their home court, and since Phoenix also plays at a fast pace, we expect Memphis’ defense to regress while playing an uptempo game. Phoenix is also off to a fast start this season as the Suns come into this game with a 3-1 record. The Suns have played solid offensive basketball as they’ve scored 91 points or more in every game while averaging 104 points per game overall. Phoenix played the Lakers last night in Los Angeles, so their defense will be forgiving tonight. The Grizzlies’ offense plays inside-out, and since they hold a big edge in the paint, Memphis will score a lot of easy baskets in this game. The Suns’ offense scored 91 points or more in all four meetings against Memphis last year, and since they are playing them early in the season, Phoenix will take advantage of their speed and also score a lot of easy baskets. We expect a high-scoring game between the Grizzlies and Suns on Wednesday night. 10* Play OVER the total. |
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11-04-14 | Orlando Magic v. Chicago Bulls -12 | 90-98 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
Orlando is one of the worst teams in the NBA. The Magic’s roster is not NBA caliber, and they are simply going thru the motions this season in order to secure another high spot in the draft. Orlando is 0-3 SU and ATS on the season. They’ve allowed 101 points or more in every game while scoring 98 points or less in every game. The Magic’s three games have all come against non-elite teams, but they’ve been blown out. Orlando will face an elite tonight as Chicago is definitely one of the best teams in the league. The Magic will be hard-pressed to be competitive in this game as there is simply a huge gap between these two teams. Chicago is 2-1 on the season with their lone loss coming in overtime to Cleveland. Chicago’s last game was only a 1-point (106-105) win over Minnesota, but we can discount that result as the Bulls were playing the night after their overtime game with the Cavaliers, and they were also without Derrick Rose and Taj Gibson due to injury. Chicago has had two days off since that game, and since both Rose and Gibson will be back on the court tonight, we expect a prime effort by the Bulls. Chicago has a lot of depth with the additions of Pau Gasol, Aaron Brooks, Doug McDermott, and Nikola Mirotic. Those guys bolster Chicago’s offense to hold and stretch-out leads which is important in this spread range. We’ll lay the points with Chicago in this game on Tuesday night. 10* Play BULLS (-). |
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11-04-14 | Milwaukee Bucks +4 v. Indiana Pacers | 87-81 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show | |
Milwaukee finished with the worst record in the NBA last season, so there’s nowhere to go but up in 2014. The Bucks have a new head coach in Jason Kidd, and they have promising young talent on the roster. The Bucks will be a tough out this season, and they’ve shown that in their three games this season. Milwaukee is just 1-2 on the season, but one loss came by just 2 points (108-106) in Charlotte in overtime and the other loss only came by 11 points (108-97) in Washington despite the Wizards shooting 54.8% (40-73) from the field and taking 33 free throws. Milwaukee has one of the best benches in the NBA, and their edge on the second unit will be a major factor in this game. Indiana is not the same team that they were last season. The Pacers lost Lance Stephenson to free agency, and Paul George suffered a gruesome leg injury over the summer while playing for Team USA. Indiana is without their best two players on both ends of the court, especially on offense as 36.2 points per game is now missing. Indiana has a terrible offense this season. They’ve scored just 92 and 89 points in their last two games, and they will struggle once again tonight against a Milwaukee defense that is holding opponents to 43.5% shooting from the field. We’ll take the points with Milwaukee in this game as Indiana has no business laying points into any team right now. 9* Play BUCKS (+). |
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11-01-14 | Brooklyn Nets v. Detroit Pistons -3 | 102-90 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
Brooklyn and Detroit both come into this game winless on the season; the Nets are 0-1 while the Pistons are 0-2. Brooklyn’s loss came in Boston after they allowed the Celtics to score 121 points on 55.7% (49-88) shooting from the floor. The Nets gave up a whopping 62 points in the paint despite Boston playing a small ball style. That’s not a good sign for Brooklyn in this game, especially since Detroit has one of the best frontcourts in the NBA and the Pistons expect to get center Greg Monroe back from his two game suspension tonight. The Nets are working in a new system under new head coach Lionel Hollins who is their fourth different coach over the past two seasons. The Nets are also without their best player and big man, center Brook Lopez, who is out with a foot injury. Brooklyn is an old and aging team that is limited, and it’s simply going to take time for them to play as a cohesive unit. 9* Play PISTONS (-). |
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10-31-14 | Memphis Grizzlies -6.5 v. Indiana Pacers | 97-89 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
Memphis basically returns their entire team from the last couple of seasons, and they’ve added some nice role players to their second unit. The Grizzlies won their season opener 105-101 over a scrappy Minnesota team on Wednesday night. Memphis dominated that game in the paint as they out-scored the Timberwolves 58-34 in the middle. The Grizzlies will do the same thing tonight against an Indiana team that was out-scored 48-32 inside the paint in their season opener against the lowly Sixers. Memphis is an elite team compared to Philadelphia, so the Pacers are taking a major step-up in class for this game tonight. Indiana was the best team over the first half of last season. But things are much different this season despite the Pacers winning their season opener. Indiana lost Lance Stephenson to free agency, and Paul George suffered a gruesome leg injury over the summer while playing for Team USA. That leaves Indiana minus their best two players on both ends of the court. The Pacers only scored 96.7 points per game last season with those guys on the court, and with 36.2 points per game missing, Indiana will have a terrible offense this season. We will disregard the 103 points they scored on Philadelphia on Wednesday night because the points came against the Sixers who project to be one of the worst teams in the NBA this season. This game is a complete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with Memphis in this game on Friday night. 10* Play GRIZZLIES (-). |
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10-29-14 | Detroit Pistons +6.5 v. Denver Nuggets | 79-89 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
Detroit made an excellent hire in the off-season, and we expect it to pay dividends right away. New head coach Stan Van Gundy is a huge upgrade over the poor Detroit staff of last season. Gundy’s presence alone will boost the Pistons by more than a few wins. Detroit also has one of the best young frontcourts in the league, led by Andre Drummond. The Pistons underachieved last season, but with a solid nucleus and good coaching, I expect Detroit to be one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season. Denver has a good roster, but the Nuggets will struggle early on this season. Denver’s best offensive players, Ty Lawson, Danilo Gallinari, Nate Robinson, and JaVale McGee are all returning from major injuries and their minutes will be watched closely in the early part of the season. “It’s a process,” guard Arron Afflalo said. “Trying to get an entire healthy group, plus a couple of other guys acclimated. It’s not going to be a snap-of-a-finger type of process. The coaches understood that dynamic coming in. You just kind of get through the preseason and not pass judgment too much.” This game will be close throughout, so we’ll take the points with Detroit on Wednesday night. 9* Play PISTONS (+). |
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10-29-14 | Chicago Bulls -4 v. New York Knicks | 104-80 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show | |
Chicago is loaded with talent, and they have a coach in Tom Thibodeau that gets the most out of his players. With a healthy Derrick Rose, the Bulls have the potential to make a run at the title. Rose was terrific in the preseason, and he scored 57 points in the last two games. Chicago also added Pau Gasol, Aaron Brooks, Doug McDermott, and Nikola Mirotic who will all bolster Chicago’s offense. The Bulls always bring their defense under Thibodeau, and if the team avoids the injury bug, Chicago will be one of the best teams in the NBA this season. The New York Knicks are breaking in a new system under new GM Phil Jackson and new head coach Derek Fisher. The Knicks are installing the triangle offense, but they simply do not have the right personnel nor the experience to run it correctly right now. New York struggled with the offense throughout the preseason, and they are also dealing with injuries to Andrea Bargnani and Jose Calderon. “This is difficult to do,” said head coach Fisher. “Last night, we talked about we’re not just installing new software to the computer. We’re building a computer from scratch, and that’s not easy to do.” Chicago is ready to win right away while New York is going thru a transition, so we’ll lay the points with the Bulls in this game on Wednesday night. 9* Play BULLS (-). |
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06-15-14 | Miami Heat +5.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | 87-104 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
Miami comes into tonight’s game off back-to-back blowout home losses. The Heat lost by 19 points in Game 3 and by 21 points in Game 4. Those two losses are not a true representation of these two teams, and we can fully expect Miami to bring their ‘A’ game tonight. The Heat didn’t shoot all that poorly in Game 4; they shot 45.1% (32-71) from the field and 40.9% (9-22) from three-point land. Miami’s issue came at the free throw line where they shot an ugly 65.0% (13-20). For the season, Miami is a solid free throw shooting team as they hit 76.4% from the line. Miami will make their free throws tonight, and that will make them much more competitive than they were in the last two games. Miami has also proven they can win on San Antonio’s home court; they won Game 2 (98-96) and they also won Game 4 in last year’s NBA Finals (109-93). Miami is also 13-1 SU off a loss in the playoffs over the last few seasons. San Antonio’s offense has been incredible in the last two games. The Spurs shot a combined 58.2% (78-134) from the field in Games 3 and 4. Those shooting numbers are unsustainable, and with San Antonio up 3-1 in the series and returning home off a pair of blowout road wins, we expect some regression tonight. The Spurs also shot incredibly well from three-point land as they hit 43.9% (18-41), and from the free throw line where they hit 77.2% (44-57). It’s hard to see San Antonio being efficient in all three offensive categories tonight. This line is also inflated as it’s an 10.5-point swing from Game 4 when Miami was a 5-point favorite. It’s also a 1.5-point difference from Game 2 when Miami was just a 4-point underdog on San Antonio’s home court. Miami holds excellent value as they are a Class-A team coming off back-to-back blowout losses in which they trailed by 25 points or more in each game. We’ll take the points with Miami in Game 5 of the NBA Finals on Sunday night. 10* Play HEAT (+). |
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06-12-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Miami Heat UNDER 197 | 107-86 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
Two of the first three games in this series have gone Over the total, but both of those results were misleading. Game 1 only went Over the total by 7 points despite 25 three-point shots made by both teams. Game 3 only went Over the total by 6 points despite hot shooting and a lot of free throws. San Antonio shot an incredible 59.4% (38-64) from the field and 45.0% (9-20) from three-point land. The Spurs also hit 81.2% (26-32) from the free throw line. Miami shot 51.6% (32-62) from the field and 47.6% (10-21) from three-point land. The Heat also hit 75.0% (18-24) from the free throw line. The pace of Game 3 was extremely slow as the teams only combined to take 126 shots in the game. We expect the shooting to cool off for both teams, and since the pace of play has been slow, Game 4 will be much lower scoring tonight. |
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06-12-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Miami Heat -5 | 107-86 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
Game 3 favored San Antonio, and we won an easy Best Bet selection on the Spurs when they beat Miami 111-92. However, the situation is much different now in Game 4 and Miami is now the team in a good situation. The Heat lost at home for just the tenth time this season, and it was their first home loss in the playoffs this season. In three home games following a previous home loss, Miami went 2-1 SU and ATS with the two wins coming by 23 and 11 points. Miami is the two-time defending NBA champion and they have consistently shown the ability to bounce back after a playoff loss. In fact, the Heat are a perfect 13-0 SU off their past 13 playoff defeats. Going back further, Miami is 19-7 ATS following a playoff loss, including 11-0 ATS after a loss by 11+ points. 9* Play HEAT (-). |
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06-10-14 | San Antonio Spurs +4.5 v. Miami Heat | 111-92 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
This series is tied at two games apiece after Miami won at home on Sunday night. That game went back and forth in the fourth quarter, and the Heat simply made the shots to win the game. San Antonio is in a good bounce back spot tonight off that loss, and there is solid value with the Spurs at an underdog price. San Antonio has played 20 games in the playoffs this season, and they’ve only been an underdog in four of those games. They went 2-2 SU in those games, but one game came after a 4-day layoff, so we can discount those results. San Antonio’s offense shot poorly from the field in Game 2 as they hit just 43.9% (36-82) and a terrible 60.0% (12-20) from the free throw line. The Spurs missed critical free throws in the fourth quarter, including four straight after a technical foul on Miami. Those misses turned the game around as the Spurs would have taken control and stretched their lead with a few minutes left to play. San Antonio is one of the best free throw shooting teams in the league at 78.1%, so we expect them to make their attempts tonight. 10* Play SPURS (+). |
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06-08-14 | Miami Heat +4.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | 98-96 | Win | 100 | 20 h 33 m | Show | |
There is no question that the loss of LeBron James in the fourth quarter due to leg cramps made a huge difference in Game 1. The Heat were winning when James first left with 7:37 remaining in the fourth quarter, and the Heat were trailing by only 2 points when James left the game and never returned at the 4:00 mark. San Antonio shot an incredible 87.5% from the field as a team in the fourth quarter. Miami obviously missed LeBron James' defensive presence, but it also appeared the Heat loss focus as an entire team defensively without their superstar on the court. |
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06-05-14 | Miami Heat v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 199 | 95-110 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 39 m | Show | |
This is a rematch of last year's NBA Finals, so we have a large amount of data to work with since these teams played a full 7 games and have identical lineups this season. Points per possession is a bit higher this season as the offenses have been strong and efficient for both teams, however these are still two veteran lineups that know how to play defense when needed. This was evident last year in the NBA Finals when both Games 1 & 2 stayed Under the total with just 180 and 187 total points scored. In fact, five of the seven games last year had 190 total points or less scored in regulation time (Game 6 went to overtime). The seven games in the NBA Finals last season averaged only 193 total points per game (in regulation time) with a median score of just 190 total points per game. |
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05-31-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 207 | 112-107 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 18 m | Show | |
Game 5 was flying Over the total at halftime and even thru three quarters until both teams put their backups into the game during the fourth quarter and only 38 points total points were scored and the game landed exactly on 206 and was either a Push or Under for most bettors. The starters on both teams got plenty of rest in the second half on Thursday night, so they should be fresh defensively this evening, but maybe a little sluggish on offense. |
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05-30-14 | Indiana Pacers v. Miami Heat UNDER 184 | 92-117 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
Game 5 barely stayed Under the total on Wednesday night, however the only reason it was close was because the Pacers and Heat combined to score 62 points in the 4th quarter. The teams had combined to score just 75 points in the first half and the game was on pace for just 161 points after three quarters. Most importantly, the pace of play was once again slow in Game 5 with my mathematical re-scoring pace model totaling just 171.5. The higher scoring games in this series have been misleading as both teams have shot above their normal (expected) percentages from the field. This is unlikely to continue, especially considering Indiana is one of the best defensive teams in the league, and considering Miami will have extra focus and defensive intensity tonight after losing Game 5. |
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05-29-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. San Antonio Spurs OVER 206.5 | 89-117 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
Oklahoma City bounced back with two strong performances at home to tie this series up at two games apiece. The Thunder got a big boost with the unexpected return of Serge Ibaka, and San Antonio simply wasn’t ready for his presence. Oklahoma City will take to the road for this crucial Game 5, and the Spurs will be better prepared. The Thunder’s offense was poor in the first two games, but that can be attributed to fatigue as they were playing their fourth and fifth road games over a 12-day span. Oklahoma City returned home and their offense instantly got better as they scored 211 points in the two games after shooting 47.1% (74-157) from the field. The Thunder will continue their good offensive rhythm tonight, especially since we expect the Spurs to quicken the pace. |
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05-28-14 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers +2 | 90-93 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
Miami lost Game 1 in Indiana by 11 points (106-97), but since that defeat, the Heat have taken control of the series. Miami has won the last three games, and it may seem like a foregone conclusion that they will close the series out tonight. However, there’s reason to believe otherwise. Indiana is Miami’s toughest match-up, and that has been the case over the last few seasons. The last game in Miami was heavily influenced by the refs as the Heat took 34 free throw attempts to just 17 attempts for Indiana. Miami was +15 in points scored from the free throw line in their two home games. The Heat will not get all the favorable calls tonight with this game on Indiana’s home court. In the first two games on their court, the Pacers held a 52-33 free throw attempts edge and they were +18 points scored from the free throw line. Based on the officiating trends of the first four games of this series, Indiana will have a significant edge from the line. 10* Play PACERS (+). |
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05-27-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 | 92-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show | |
Oklahoma City bounced back with a strong performance in Game 3 as expected, and there’s no reason they can’t get a similar outcome tonight. San Antonio was sure to regress in their last game after scoring 234 points on 53.8% (91-169) shooting from the field, 45.0% (18-40) shooting from three-point land, and hitting 85.0% (34-40) from the free throw line in the first two games. The Spurs’ efficiency dropped sharply on Sunday night as they scored just 97 points on 39.6% (36-91) shooting from the field. San Antonio’s offense did not get many open looks inside the paint, and they had to settle for a lot of jump shots. The reason for that was the unexpected return of Serge Ibaka who was ruled out for the season after injuring his calf. Ibaka’s defensive presence is a key match-up advantage for the Thunder, and it was obvious that San Antonio was bothered with him on the court. |
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05-26-14 | Indiana Pacers v. Miami Heat UNDER 184 | 90-102 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
Miami and Indiana shot the lights out in Game 3 just as they did in Game 1. The Heat shot 54.4% (37-68) from the field and 55.6% (10-18) from three-point land while the Pacers shot 47.7% (31-65) from the field. The teams also combined to shoot 75.6% (34-45) from the free throw line. Despite 186 total points scored, the pace of play was extremely slow as it only had 86.5 possessions in the game. That pace was even slower than the four regular season meetings this season when Miami and Indiana averaged just 89.9 possessions per game. In the playoffs, Miami has been the second slowest team while Indiana has been the tenth slowest of the playoff teams. My mathematical re-scoring pace model has averaged just 179 in the seven head-to-head meetings this season, with a median re-score of 179.5, however the pace of play has been even slower so far in this playoff series as the past three games have averaged just 174.5 based on my re-score model, with a median re-score of 176. |
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05-26-14 | Indiana Pacers +6.5 v. Miami Heat | 90-102 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
Miami took a 2-1 series lead on Saturday night when they beat Indiana 99-87. That game was a tale of two halves as the Pacers out-scored the Heat 42-38 in the first half while the Heat out-scored the Pacers 61-45 in the second half. Despite the results of the last game, Indiana is still Miami’s toughest match-up; they’ve proven that over the last few seasons. Miami is 6-4 versus Indiana over the last ten meetings, and four of the last seven meetings have been decided by less than the posted pointspread on tonight’s game. The Pacers’ defense has been the best in the playoffs, but they played poorly in the last two games. They allowed Miami to be too efficient from the field as the Heat shot a combined 52.6% (71-135) from the field and 47.4% (18-38) from three-point land. Indiana’s defense will play much better tonight, and that will keep them competitive. 9* Play PACERS (+). |
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05-25-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder -2 | 97-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
San Antonio is up 2-0 in this series, and the main reason for that is their offense. The Spurs’ offense has been terrific in the first two games. They’ve scored 234 points while shooting an incredible 53.8% (91-169) from the field, 45.0% (18-40) from three-point land, and 85.0% (34-40) from the free throw line. Those numbers are hard to sustain, and with this game coming on the road, we expect San Antonio’s hot shooting to cool way off. The first two offensive performances by San Antonio versus Oklahoma City were significantly better than anything the Spurs showed in the regular season meetings. In four regular season meetings against Oklahoma City, the Spurs’ offense never scored more than 105 points. San Antonio only averaged 96.8 points per game in those four meetings. The Spurs are ripe for a reversal of form, and with the Thunder in a must win situation, we expect the desperate team to play much better in this game. 10* Play THUNDER (-). |
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05-24-14 | Indiana Pacers +7 v. Miami Heat | 87-99 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
The series is tied at one game apiece as the scene shifts to Miami. The Pacers easily won Game 1, but they couldn’t hold their fourth quarter lead in Game 2 and lost 87-83. Indiana only lost that game by 4 points despite getting out-shot 50.7% to 40.0% by Miami. That’s a positive sign for Indiana, and it shows that the Heat have a tough time getting separation from the Pacers. Indiana is Miami’s toughest match-up, and that has been the case over the last few seasons. The teams have split the last ten meetings, and four of the last six meetings have been decided by less than the posted pointspread on tonight’s game. The Pacers’ defense has been the best in the playoffs, but they played poorly in the last game. They didn’t give up many points, but they allowed Miami to be too efficient from the field. Indiana has dominated the glass in the first two games; they’ve out-rebounded Miami 79-67, including a 23-10 edge on the offensive glass. |
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05-21-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 211 | 77-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
Oklahoma City and San Antonio played a high-scoring Game 1 on Monday night. The Thunder and Spurs scored a total of 227 points despite a relatively slow pace. That game only had 96 possessions, and it’s rare for a game to exceed 200 points in a game with less than 100 possessions. Oklahoma City shot okay from the field as they hit 46.2% (37-80). However, they shot 44.4% (12-27) from three-point land and 82.6% (19-23) from the free throw line. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook had good offensive games as they combined for 53 points on 47.5% (19-40) shooting from the field. Overall, the Thunder’s offense and their best scorers played well, so it’s hard to see them playing much better tonight in Game 2, especially since this will be their fifth road game over their last six games during a 12-day span. |
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05-20-14 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 185 | 87-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
We lost with the Under in Game 1, but we have no hesitation in coming right back with the Under in Game 2, especially with the total being a full three points higher. Miami and Indiana shot the lights out in Game 1. The Heat shot 51.3% (40-78) from the field while the Pacers shot 51.5% (35-68) from the field and 42.1% (8-19) from three-point land. The teams also combined to shoot 75.0% (39-52) from the free throw line. Despite 203 total points scored, the pace of play was extremely slow as it only had 89.4 possessions in the game. That pace fell right in line with the regular-season games. In four games overall this season, Miami and Indiana averaged just 89.9 possessions per game. In the playoffs, Miami has only averaged 88.2 possessions per game. That’s the second slowest number of the 16 playoff teams. Indiana has averaged 92.5 possessions per game in the playoffs; the 10th slowest of the 16 playoff teams. |
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05-19-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. San Antonio Spurs -5.5 | 105-122 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
Oklahoma City has played in back-to-back tough playoff series; they needed 7 games to beat Memphis and 6 games to beat the Los Angeles Clippers. The Thunder will also play on the road for the fourth time in five games tonight, and it comes over a 10-day span. Oklahoma City also made big comebacks in their last two games; they trailed by 15 points in Game 5 versus the Clippers and they trailed by 16 points in Game 6. It will all catch up to the Thunder soon, and we expect tonight to be the night. Oklahoma City will also play without Serge Ibaka for the rest of the playoffs as he suffered a calf injury in their last game. His absence is huge because he is a terrific rebounder and a tough match-up for the Spurs. 10* Play SPURS (-). |
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05-18-14 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 182 | 96-107 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 59 m | Show | |
Miami has had an easy time in the playoffs so far, and their offense took advantage of a pair of sub-par defensive teams. The Heat have the most efficient offense in the playoffs thus far, but they are taking a major step-up in defensive class versus Indiana. The Pacers have the most efficient defensive team in the playoffs, and their stop unit will slow Miami’s offense down. In two regular season games in Indiana, the Heat scored just 84 and 83 points. In four games overall this season, Miami and Indiana played four slow-paced games. They averaged just 89.9 possessions per game, and with the way the two teams have played in the playoffs, we expect another slow-paced game today. In nine playoff games, Miami has only averaged 88.2 possessions per game. That’s the second slowest number of the 16 playoff teams. |
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05-15-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Los Angeles Clippers OVER 212.5 | 104-98 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
Oklahoma City and Los Angeles have played back-to-back Unders after going Over the total in two of the first three games in this series. The winning team has scored 101 points or more in all five games, and the pace of play has remained fast. But the oddsmakers have lowered tonight’s total a couple of points simply based on the recent results, and that has created some value on the Over in Game 6 tonight. In Tuesday night’s 105-104 win by Oklahoma City, both teams shot poorly. The Clippers hit just 43.2% (38-88) from the field while the Thunder hit just 42.9% (33-77) from the field. The teams combined for 31 fast break points in that game, and that clearly shows an up-tempo style of basketball. Oklahoma City and Los Angeles will play at a fast pace once again, and with normal shooting percentages, this game will get up and Over the total. |
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05-14-14 | BROOKLYN GM5 +7.5 v. MIAMI GM5 | 94-96 | Win | 100 | 6 h 25 m | Show | |
Brooklyn is down 3-1 in this series, but only one of those three losses was a clunker. The Nets were in a terrible spot for Game 1, and they were never close in a 107-86 blowout loss. In Game 2, the Nets were only down 2 points in the fourth quarter before losing by 12 points (94-82). Brooklyn led by as many as 20 points in their 104-90 win in Game 3. And in Game 4 on Monday night, the Nets led by a point with just over 4 minutes left to play in the game before ultimately losing 102-96. Brooklyn has proven they can stay competitive with Miami, and the line is simply too high considering how close these teams are. The Nets’ offense was poor in Game 4 as they shot just 43.6% (34-78) from the field and an ugly 22.7% (5-22) from three-point land. Despite that awful performance, Brooklyn only lost the game by 6 points. |
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05-13-14 | LA CLIPPERS GM5 +5.5 v. OKLAHOMA CITY GM5 | 104-105 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
Los Angeles looked like a defeated team in the fourth quarter of Game 4 on Sunday afternoon. The Clippers trailed by 15 points, but they stormed back and won 101-99 after out-scoring Oklahoma City 38-24 over the final 12 minutes of play. That loss put a charge into Los Angeles while the loss deflated Oklahoma City. The Clippers have all of the momentum coming into tonight’s crucial Game 5, and since they are getting a handful of points, we see some good value. Los Angeles’ offense has been poor over the last couple of games, but they are too good to be held down for long. In Game 4, the Clippers only shot 41.9% (39-93) from the field and an ugly 14.3% (3-21) from three-point land. They were also bad from the free throw line as they went just 20-29 (69.0%). Overall, their offense is much better as they average 108.2 points per game on 47.4% shooting from the field and 35.2% shooting from three-point land. |
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05-12-14 | MIAMI GM4 v. BROOKLYN GM4 UNDER 188 | 102-96 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
Miami played their worst defensive game in the playoffs in Game 3, and it cost them as they lost 104-90 to Brooklyn. Prior to that poor performance, Miami had given up 98 points or less in all six of their playoff games; the Heat allowed an average of 89.3 points per game. In the first two games against Brooklyn, the Heat allowed just 86 and 82 points. Miami’s defense will bounce back with a strong effort tonight, especially since it’s highly unlikely that Brooklyn will repeat their shooting from Game 3. The Nets shot 52.8% (38-72) from the field and an incredible 60.0% (15-25) from three-point land. Overall this season, Brooklyn’s offense shoots just 45.9% from the field and 36.7% from three-point land. Game 3 was an aberration, and we expect the Nets’ shooting to revert to normal and for Miami’s defense to play much better. 10* Play UNDER the total. |
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05-11-14 | OKLAHOMA CITY GM4 v. LA CLIPPERS GM4 OVER 215 | 99-101 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 53 m | Show | |
Oklahoma City and Los Angeles went Over the total in Game 3, and we cashed a Best Bet selection. And we’ll come right back with the Over in Game 4 today for all the same reasons. The pace of all three games has been fast with a total of 509 shots taken by the Thunder and Clippers. In Friday night’s 118-112 loss, Los Angeles shot poorly as they hit just 45.2% (42-93) from the field and an ugly 26.9% (7-26) from three-point land. Oklahoma City also shot poorly from beyond the arc as they hit 35.3% (6-17) from three-point land. The teams combined to take 43 three’s in that game, but they only made 30.2% (13-43) which is well below their season averages. Oklahoma City and Los Angeles will play at a fast pace once again, and with normal shooting percentages, this game will get up and Over the total. |
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05-10-14 | SAN ANTONIO GM3 v. PORTLAND GM3 +1.5 | 118-103 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
Portland played better in Game 2 than they did in Game 1, but the Blazers could not overcome San Antonio’s hot shooting. That has been the case in the first two games so far as the Spurs have shot a combined 52.0% (92-177) from the field and 52.8% (19-36) from three-point land. San Antonio’s offense has been on a major roll over their last five games as they’ve averaged 113.8 points per game on 51.9% shooting from the field and 47.8% shooting from three-point land. Those high shooting percentages are simply unsustainable, and we expect San Antonio’s offense to cool way down, especially tonight on the road. The Spurs’ three road games in their last playoff series versus Dallas were less than dominating as they went just 1-2 SU with their lone win coming by just 4 points after their offense scored just 93 points. San Antonio is ‘fat and happy’ after their two blowout wins at home, so there’s reason to expect a lesser performance tonight. 10* Play TRAIL BLAZERS (+). |
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05-10-14 | MIAMI GM3 v. BROOKLYN GM3 +2 | 90-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
Brooklyn failed to come thru for us in Game 2, but we have no hesitation in backing the Nets once again in Game 3. As expected, Brooklyn played much better in Game 2 than they did in Game 1, but the fourth quarter did them in as they were out-scored 25-15 and lost the game 94-82. Brooklyn has been one of the best home teams in 2014, and we expect a desperate Nets team to get back in this series with a solid win tonight. At home, Brooklyn is 24-5 SU in 2014, including a 104-95 win in overtime versus the Heat. Miami is quite satisfied with their 2-0 sweep at home, so tonight’s game is a bit of a flat spot for the Heat. Their hot shooting has to cool off as well after hitting 53.1% (77-145) from the field, 40.4% (19-47) from three-point land, and 82.4% (28-34) from the free throw line in the first two games. 9* Play NETS (+). |
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05-09-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Los Angeles Clippers OVER 213.5 | 118-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
Oklahoma City and Los Angeles played two high-scoring games to open this series. Game 1 went Over the total with 227 points scored, but Game 2 stayed Under the total despite 213 points scored. For some reason, the posted total on tonight’s Game 3 is lower than the last game, and we see a bit of value on the Over. The pace of both games has been fast with a total of 337 shots taken by the Thunder and Clippers. On Wednesday night, Los Angeles shot poorly as they hit just 44.6% (37-83) from the field and 33.3% (9-27) from three-point land. Oklahoma City also shot poorly from beyond the arc as they hit 34.8% (8-23) from three-point land. The teams combined to take 50 three’s in that game, but they only made 17. They also combined to miss 11 free throws in the game which prevented the game from going Over the total. Oklahoma City and Los Angeles will play at a fast pace once again, and with normal shooting averages, this game will get up and Over the total. 10* Play OVER the total. |
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05-08-14 | Portland Trailblazers +7 v. SAN ANTONIO GM2 | 97-114 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 13 m | Show | |
Portland played well below their capabilities in Game 1 on Tuesday night. The Blazers lost by 24 points (116-92) after shooting just 37.8% (31-82) from the field and 25.0% (4-16) from three-point land. The poor offensive performance by Portland can be attributed to the three days off they had before that game. The Blazers are a team that likes to play up-tempo basketball, and rhythm is vital to their success. Portland’s offense will be much more fluid tonight, and because of that the Blazers will be competitive. Overall, Portland averages 106.9 points per game on 44.9% shooting from the field and 37.0% shooting from three-point land. In four regular season games versus the Spurs this season, Portland averaged 105.6 points per game; they scored 109 points or more in three of the four games. The Blazers’ offense is much better than they played in Game 1, and we expect them to show it tonight. 10* Play TRAIL BLAZERS (+). |
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05-08-14 | Brooklyn Nets +8 v. Miami Heat | 82-94 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
Brooklyn was in a terrible spot for Game 1 in Miami, and that showed on the court. The Nets came into that game off a grueling 7-game series versus Toronto, and the Nets had to play on the road in that Game 7. Brooklyn then had to travel to Miami on one day of rest and face a fresh Heat team that hadn’t played a game in seven days. Miami was also quite focused for Game 1 as they had lost all four regular season games to Brooklyn. The Nets were simply up against it on Tuesday night, and the final score showed that. Miami won by 21 points (107-86) after shooting an incredible 56.8% (42-74) from the field. The Heat also hit 87.5% (14-16) from the free throw line, so they capitalized on their opportunities. Now that Brooklyn has settled in, we expect the Nets to give Miami a stiffer challenge in Game 2 tonight. 9* Play NETS (+). |
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05-07-14 | LA CLIPPERS GM2 v. OKLAHOMA CITY GM2 -5.5 | 101-112 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
Los Angeles played an impressive Game 1 on Monday as they beat Oklahoma City 122-105. The Clippers were coming into that game off a grueling and emotional 7-game series versus Golden State, and they had to travel with only one day of rest between games. The Clippers’ offense was incredible as they shot 54.9% (45-82) from the field and 51.7% (15-29) from three-point land. Los Angeles held an advantage from the free throw line as they were handed 30 attempts while Oklahoma City only took 23 free throws. The Clippers scored 126 points in their Game 7 win over the Warriors after shooting 55.4% (46-83) from the field. That’s back-to-back games in which the Clippers’ offense shot the lights out, but we expect that to end tonight. This is a terrible spot for Los Angeles, and there’s reason to expect a flat performance considering their recent results and scheduling situation. 10* Play THUNDER (-). |
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05-07-14 | Washington Wizards v. Indiana Pacers -4 | 82-86 | Push | 0 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
Washington beat Indiana 102-96 in Game 1 on Monday night, but we do not expect that to happen again in Game 2 tonight. The Wizards simply shot the lights out from beyond the arc in that game, but it’s highly unlikely they’ll be able to repeat that performance. Washington shot an incredible 62.5% (10-16) from three-point land, and they also got to the free throw line 31 times in that game. That game was an aberration, and we expect Indiana’s superiority to rein supreme in this game. During the regular season, Washington’s offense was stymied by Indiana’s defense. In three games, the Wizards only averaged 76.7 points per game while scoring 73 points or less in two of the three meetings. Washington was the worst offensive team to play against the Pacers this season, and Indiana’s defense played their best versus the Wizards’ offense. Indiana is a terrible match-up for Washington despite the results in Game 1. 9* Play PACERS (-). |
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05-06-14 | Brooklyn Nets v. Miami Heat UNDER 192 | 86-107 | Loss | -101 | 6 h 6 m | Show | |
Brooklyn needed seven games to beat Toronto in the first round of the playoffs. The Nets just played on Sunday afternoon in Toronto, and now they must travel to Miami and play on just one day of rest. This is not the best of spots for Brooklyn, but on the flip side, Miami has not played in seven days, so they may need some time to get into a rhythm. Brooklyn and Miami played four times this season, and the Nets won all four games. Three of their wins came by just a single point, and their other win came in overtime. Those four games were played at an extremely slow pace, and in fact, they averaged only 88.1 possessions per game. We expect Game 1 to be played at a similar pace, especially considering the circumstances mentioned above. 10* Play UNDER the total. |
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05-05-14 | Washington Wizards v. Indiana Pacers -4 | 102-96 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
Washington took care of Chicago much easier than expected. The Wizards won that series in five games, and their only loss came by just 3 points. Washington simply proved to be too fast for Chicago, and their offense was able to get easy baskets by using their speed edge. Things will be much different for Washington in this series versus Indiana, and the Wizards’ offense will have to work hard for every basket. During the regular season, Washington’s offense was stymied by Indiana’s defense. In three games, the Wizards only averaged 76.7 points per game while scoring 73 points or less in two of the three meetings. Washington was the worst offensive team to play against the Pacers this season, and Indiana’s defense played their best versus the Wizards’ offense. Indiana is simply a terrible match-up for Washington. 10* Play PACERS (-). |
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05-04-14 | Dallas Mavericks v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 198 | 96-119 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 26 m | Show | |
Dallas and San Antonio have played to a pattern in this series, and we expect that to continue in Game 7 on Sunday afternoon. The Mavericks and Spurs opened the series with a very low-scoring game in which San Antonio won 90-85. The next two games were high-scoring with point totals of 205 and 217. Both teams shot extremely well in those two games, but the shooting cooled off in Game 4 when the teams combined to score just 182 points. Dallas and San Antonio then played back-to-back high-scoring affairs in Games 5 and 6 with point totals of 212 and 224. The Mavericks and Spurs shot the lights out in the last two games as they combined to shoot 48.7% (165-339) from the field and 44.9% (35-78) from three-point land. The teams cooled way off in Game 4 after back-to-back hot shooting games, and we expect that to repeat today, especially since this is Game 7. 10* Play UNDER the total. |
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05-03-14 | MEMPHIS GM7 +9 v. OKLAHOMA CITY GM7 | 109-120 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
Memphis was embarrassed by Oklahoma City in Game 6 on their home court as they lost by 20 points (104-84). The Grizzlies also lost their cool, and that got Zach Randolph suspended for this game. However, Memphis is a resilient and deep team, and we expect them to bounce back strong tonight, even without one of their best players. Memphis is 2-1 in Oklahoma City in this series; their lone loss came in Game 1 when they were simply in a terrible spot. The Grizzlies are a perfect 2-0 SU when playing off a loss in this series, and playing well off a loss is something Memphis has done all season. In fact, when playing off a SU loss, Memphis is 25-9 SU in this situation, and an incredible 30-4 ATS based on tonight’s posted line. Since the All-Star break, Memphis is 10-1 SU and a perfect 11-0 ATS when playing off a SU loss based on tonight’s pointspread. |
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05-02-14 | Houston Rockets v. Portland Trail Blazers OVER 212 | 98-99 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
Houston and Portland played the first four games in this series Over the total. That wasn’t the case in Game 5 when Houston won 108-98 in a lower scoring game. However, the pace of that game was fast, just as the rest of the games between the Rockets and Blazers have been. The teams combined to take 174 shots in Game 5 despite the lower score. Houston and Portland were bad from three-point land as they shot just 34.0% (17-50) from beyond the arc. There were also minimal free throw attempts in the game with the teams combining for just 41 total attempts. Prior to Game 5, both teams had scored 101 points or more in all eight meetings this season. The winning team has scored 108 points or more in every meeting this season, and there’s nothing we’ve seen to indicate that trend will not continue. 10* Play OVER the total. |
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05-01-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Golden State Warriors +1.5 | 99-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
Game 5 was tailor made for Los Angeles. The Clippers returned home off a 21-point blowout loss (118-97) the game before, and they were playing in front of their home fans after the incident with their owner. Los Angeles fed off their emotion, and the officials were also influenced in their calls. The Clippers won 113-103 after shooting 48.7% (37-76) from the field and 40.0% (8-20) from three-point land. Los Angeles held a huge advantage from the free throw line as they were handed a whopping 41 attempts while Golden State only took 19 free throws. The Clippers hit 75.6% (31-41) from the line, and that was simply the difference in the game. Tonight’s game will return to normal with the game on the Warriors’ home court; the Clippers will not get all of the favorable calls. Los Angeles will be hard-pressed to match the emotion from Game 5, and they won’t be able to repeat their outstanding performance on the court. |
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04-30-14 | Brooklyn Nets +3 v. Toronto Raptors | 113-115 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
Brooklyn and Toronto have played a highly competitive series, and that was certainly expected. There’s not much that separates the Nets and Raptors, so we expect tonight’s game to be close throughout, especially with this being a crucial Game 5. Brooklyn blew a golden opportunity in Game 4 to go up 3-1 in the series after storming back from a 17-point deficit. The game was tied going into the fourth quarter, but Brooklyn was terrible over the final 12 minutes of play as they scored just 12 points. Overall, Brooklyn’s offense was poor as they shot just 41.2% (28-68) from the field and an ugly 20.0% (4-20) from three-point land. The Nets also blew their opportunities from the free throw line as they missed 10 attempts (19-29) in the game. Brooklyn’s best player in this series has been Joe Johnson, but he was terrible in Game 4 as he scored just 7 points in 41 minutes of action. His offense will bounce back strong as will the entire Brooklyn team. |
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04-29-14 | Memphis Grizzlies +7 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | 100-99 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
Memphis was in a terrible spot for Game 1, and that showed in their play when they got blown out by 14 points (100-86). The Grizzlies bounced back strong in Game 2 when they won outright (111-105) in overtime as 7-point underdogs. Memphis also played up to their potential in Games 3 and 4 as both went to overtime with the Grizzlies winning by 3 points and losing by 3 points. The last three games have all been close, and we expect more of the same in Game 5 tonight. Memphis has been tremendous when playing off a SU loss this season. The Grizzlies are 24-9 SU in this situation, and an incredible 26-5-2 ATS based on tonight’s posted line. Since the All-Star break, Memphis is 9-1 SU and 9-0-1 ATS when playing off a SU loss. |
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04-28-14 | Atlanta Hawks v. Indiana Pacers -6.5 | 107-97 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
Atlanta has been a surprise in this series, and they couldn’t have asked for anything more than being tied at two games apiece heading into Game 5. The Hawks were the only team to make the playoffs with a losing record, and while some of their poor record can be attributed to injuries, the Hawks still have a lot of issues. Atlanta’s offense is not a consistent unit, and after they scored 101 points in Game 1, they’ve only averaged 90.3 points per game over the last three games. Atlanta’s defense is also extremely poor on the road as they allow opponents to score 103.6 points per game on 47.4% shooting from the field and 38.7% shooting from three-point land. In their 101-85 loss at Indiana in Game 2, the Hawks allowed the Pacers to shoot 52.9% (36-68) from the field and 47.1% (8-17) from three-point land. In this critical Game 5 tonight, we expect a strong offensive performance from the Pacers, and Atlanta’s poor defense will be a contributing factor. |
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04-27-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Golden State Warriors OVER 209 | 97-118 | Win | 100 | 5 h 40 m | Show | |
Los Angeles and Golden State have played seven times this season, and the Clippers have won four of those games. All seven games were played at a fast pace as they averaged 100.2 possessions per game. The winning team scored 105 points or more in six of the seven games, and both teams scored 96 points or more in six of the seven games. Golden State played fast all season as they averaged 98.5 possessions per game which ranked them #6 in the NBA. Los Angeles also played at a fast pace this season as they averaged 98.4 possessions per game which ranked them #7 in the NBA. These two teams have their most success when playing up-tempo basketball, and we expect that to be the case this afternoon. |
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04-26-14 | Miami Heat v. Charlotte Bobcats UNDER 188 | 98-85 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
Miami holds a 2-0 series lead as the scene shifts to Charlotte. The Heat won the first two games because of hot shooting, and a lot of help from the refs. Miami shot 49.0% (70-143) from the field and 43.5% (20-46) from three-point land. The Heat also took 55 free throws in the first two games which gave them a free 40 points from the line. Both games went Over the total despite being played at slow paces. During the regular season, Miami and Charlotte played extremely slow as their games only averaged 90.1 possessions per game. They played the slowest games of the eight playoff series, and since the first two games went Over the total due to above average shooting, we expect things to revert back to normal tonight, especially considering the situation for the Bobcats. |
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04-25-14 | Chicago Bulls +3 v. Washington Wizards | 100-97 | Win | 100 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
Chicago is down 0-2 in this series, but they could very well be up 2-0. The Bulls took a lead into the fourth quarter of both games, but they played terrible over the final 12 minutes of each game and handed Washington a pair of wins. In Games 1 and 2, Chicago out-scored Washington 150-142 over the first three quarters. In the fourth quarter and overtime, the Wizards out-scored the Bulls 61-42. Chicago’s defense gave up 102 points in Game 1 and 101 points in Game 2 and allowing over 100 points in something the Bulls don’t do too often. In fact, Chicago has allowed more than 100 points just 18 times in 84 games this season. Off back-to-back poor defensive efforts, we expect the Bulls to play exceptional defense tonight. In three regular season meetings, Chicago held Washington to just 92 points per game, including a 78-point output on the Wizards’ home floor earlier this month. 10* Play BULLS (+). |
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04-24-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Golden State Warriors +2 | 98-96 | Push | 0 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
Golden State and Los Angeles are tied at one game apiece as the series changes locations. The Warriors won Game 1 109-105, but they were crushed in Game 2 by 40 points (138-98). That was an embarrassing loss for Golden State, and with tonight’s game being played on their home court, we expect a strong bounce back effort. Prior to their win on Monday night, Los Angeles was just 3-4 SU over their previous seven games. The Clippers couldn’t have played any better than they did as they shot 56.6% (47-83) from the field and 48.0% (12-25) from three-point land. They were also phenomenal from the free throw line as they hit 91.4% (32-35) of their attempts. Los Angeles will be hard-pressed to repeat that outstanding performance, especially since their level of play versus playoff teams since the All-Star break was not any good. Los Angeles went just 6-4 SU versus playoff teams while possessing the 13th worse defense during that span. The Clippers held Golden State to 6.2 points below their season average, and that’s not going to happen in back-to-back games. |
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04-23-14 | Portland Trailblazers v. Houston Rockets OVER 214.5 | 112-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
Portland and Houston played to a 122-120 final in overtime in Game 1 on Sunday night. The game went Over the total thanks to overtime as the teams were tied at 106 at the end of regulation. However, the pace of that game was extremely fast, and the teams combined to take 202 shots from the field. The reason the game wasn’t higher scoring in regulation was due to the poor shooting and missed free throws. Portland only shot 43.3% (42-97) from the field and 33.3% (9-27) from three-point land. Houston only shot 41.0% (43-105) from the field and 22.9% (8-35) from three-point land. The Blazers and Rockets also combined to miss 24 free throws after getting to the line a total of 79 times. All four regular season games were also played at a fast pace as they averaged 100.2 possessions per game. The winning team scored 111 points or more in every game, and both teams scored 101 points or more in all four games. Those trends continued in Game 1 of this playoff series, and there’s no reason they won’t repeat once again tonight. |
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04-22-14 | Washington Wizards v. Chicago Bulls -5 | 101-99 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
Washington won Game 1 on Sunday night 102-93 after out-scoring Chicago 30-18 in the fourth quarter. The Wizards shot the ball well in that game as they hit 48.6% (36-74) from the field. Washington was also quite aggressive as they got to the free throw line 35 times which was nine more attempts than Chicago. All five starters scored 13 points or more. Chicago only shot 42.0% (34-81) from the field and an ugly 25.0% (5-20) from three-point land. Despite that, Washington still trailed by 3 points heading into the fourth quarter. The Wizards simply won the final 12 minutes, but they’ll be hard-pressed to stay competitive in Game 2 tonight. Washington is a team that needs to play fast while scoring a lot of points to be at their best. The Wizards have been held to less than 100 points 17 times on the road this season; they went just 6-11 SU in those games. The Wizards will not get their preferred fast pace tonight in Chicago, especially since the Bulls are off a poor defensive game. |
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04-21-14 | Memphis Grizzlies +7 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | 111-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
Memphis was in a terrible spot for Game 1, and that showed in their play. The Grizzlies were playing hard down the stretch just to make the playoffs, and their final regular season game against Dallas went to overtime before the Grizzlies won and got the #7 seed. Memphis was playing on tired legs on Saturday night; they got out-scored 56-34 in the first half before losing 100-86. Off that blowout loss, we expect the Grizzlies to bounce back strong tonight. Memphis has been tremendous when playing off a SU loss this season. The Grizzlies are 23-9 SU in this situation, and an incredible 25-5-2 ATS based on tonight’s posted line. Since the All-Star break, Memphis is 8-1 SU and 8-0-1 ATS when playing off a SU loss. The Grizzlies’ defense was poor in Game 1, but they only gave up 94.6 points per game on 45.0% shooting from the field and 35.4% shooting from three-point land on the season. Memphis’ defense will play much better tonight. 10* Play GRIZZLIES (+). |
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04-20-14 | PORTLAND GM1 v. HOUSTON GM1 OVER 214 | 122-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show | |
Portland and Houston played four times this season, and all four games went Over the total. All four games were played at a fast pace as they averaged 100.2 possessions per game. The winning team scored 111 points or more in every game, and both teams scored 101 points or more in all four games. Portland played fast all season as they averaged 97.5 possessions per game which ranked them #10 in the NBA. Houston played at a faster pace this season as they averaged 98.8 possessions per game which ranked them #5 in the NBA. These two teams have their most success when playing up-tempo basketball, and we do not expect that to change just because it’s the playoffs. |
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04-20-14 | PORTLAND GM1 +5.5 v. HOUSTON GM1 | 122-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
Portland comes into the playoffs playing some terrific basketball. The Trail Blazers are 9-1 SU over their last ten games; they were just 4-9 SU over their previous 13 games. The difference came when LeMarcus Aldridge returned to the court from injury. His presence gives Portland an interior force on both ends of the court which makes the Blazers an extremely difficult team to beat, especially by margin. Portland’s offense has been outstanding over their last five games as they’ve averaged 108 points per game on 46.8% shooting from the field and 36.8% shooting from three-point land. In four games versus Houston this season, the Blazers scored 101 points or more in every game while averaging 109.5 points per game. Portland’s offense will have success once again tonight, especially since the Rockets have one of the worst defenses in the playoffs. |
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04-19-14 | Golden State Warriors v. Los Angeles Clippers OVER 211 | 109-105 | Win | 100 | 17 h 14 m | Show | |
Golden State and Los Angeles played four times this season, and the teams split the series two games apiece. All four games were played at a fast pace as they averaged 100.5 possessions per game. The winning team scored 105 points or more in every game, and both teams scored 98 points or more in three of the four games. Golden State played fast all season as they averaged 98.5 possessions per game which ranked them #6 in the NBA. Los Angeles also played at a fast pace this season as they averaged 98.4 possessions per game which ranked them #7 in the NBA. These two teams have their most success when playing up-tempo basketball, and we do not expect that to change just because it’s the playoffs. |
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04-19-14 | Golden State Warriors +7 v. Los Angeles Clippers | 109-105 | Win | 100 | 15 h 22 m | Show | |
Golden State is playing some of their best basketball of the season right now. The Warriors are 10-5 SU over their last fifteen games and 20-10 over their last thirty games. Four of Golden State’s last five losses have come by single digits which means they had a legitimate shot at winning. Golden State’s offense is in tremendous form right now as they are averaging 114.8 points per game over their last five games. The Warriors are shooting 48.1% from the field and 40.7% from three-point land. In four games versus the Clippers this season, Golden State averaged 107.3 points per game while going 2-2 SU in those games. |
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04-19-14 | Brooklyn Nets v. Toronto Raptors -2.5 | 94-87 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
Brooklyn has shown a big difference in their home and road splits since the start of 2014. At home, the Nets have been virtually unbeatable, racking up an incredible 22-4 record. On the road, the Nets have been mediocre at best while going just 12-13. When the Nets lose on the road, they tend to lose big as nine of their thirteen losses have come by 7 points or more. Six of the losses were complete blowouts in which they lost by 16 points or more. Brooklyn’s average road loss in 2014 has come by a whopping 14.3 points per game. The Nets have lost their last two road games, and their defense allowed a total of 229 points on 54.3% (89-164) shooting from the field and 43.2% (19-44) shooting from three-point land. Brooklyn also fouls too much, and those two opponents took 47 free throw attempts. |
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04-16-14 | Dallas Mavericks v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 191.5 | 105-106 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
Dallas and Memphis come into tonight’s game with identical 49-32 SU records on the season, and because of that, they are battling for playoff positioning. The winner of tonight’s game will get the #7 seed and face either the Thunder or the Clippers in the first round of the playoffs, while the loser will get the #8 seed and have to face the Spurs. With the way San Antonio has been playing since the All-Star break, teams are looking to avoid them. That means the Mavericks and Grizzlies will bring their best efforts tonight, and this game will be played like a playoff game. Both teams are also intent on reaching the 50-win plateau and that only gives this game more intensity. Dallas knows what to expect from Memphis tonight, and they are preparing to play the Grizzlies’ style of basketball. “It will be that kind of game, slow down and grind it,” said Vince Carter. “That’s how it’s going to be. We’ll have to stick our nose in there and fight back.” |
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04-14-14 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 196 | 95-93 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
Charlotte is still battling Washington for the #6 seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs. The Bobcats come off back-to-back games against bottom feeders Boston and Philadelphia, and Charlotte got caught playing their opponent’s style of basketball. The Bobcats’ defense was poor because of the fast pace, and they allowed 106 points to the Celtics and 105 points to the Sixers. Prior to those two games, Charlotte’s defense was playing terrific, holding teams to just 89.8 points per game over their previous five games. Charlotte is playing another playoff-bound team in Atlanta tonight, so this game will be played with a much slower pace which is more of the Bobcats’ style. Head coach Steve Clifford was vocal about his team’s poor transition defense in their last two games, so we know tonight’s focus will be on the defensive end of the court.
Atlanta’s win over Miami in their last game locked them into the #8 spot for the playoffs. The Hawks will be resting players tonight, and that’s on top of missing some starters already because of injury. Atlanta will have a limited roster tonight, and they have absolutely zero interest in the results of this game. The Hawks have tightened things on defense recently as they are only allowing 92 points per game on 43.6% shooting from the field and 31.8% shooting from three-point land over their last five games. Atlanta’s offense will be severely limited tonight as they’ll be playing without three starters that average a combined 41 points per game. Neither team plays at a fast pace, and with the circumstances in which these teams will play tonight’s game, we expect a low-scoring scrum between the Bobcats and Hawks. 9* Play UNDER the total. |
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04-12-14 | Milwaukee Bucks +11 v. Washington Wizards | 91-104 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 60 m | Show | |
Milwaukee has had an awful season; the Bucks are just 15-64 overall and 5-34 on the road. Despite those awful numbers, and with the season winding down, Milwaukee has not quit. The Bucks are still playing hard, and they’ve been competitive in their games. Over their last 28 games, Milwaukee is an incredible 23-5 ATS based on tonight’s posted pointspread. They’ve only lost five games by 12 points or more, and two of those losses came to the Miami Heat. The Bucks have given the Wizards fits all season with two games going to overtime and the other game decided by only 7 points. Milwaukee won 109-105 on this court earlier this season, so they are quite capable of playing with the Wizards. Milwaukee comes in off a nice home win last night, so they have momentum for tonight, especially against a team they know they can compete with.
Washington comes into this game off back-to-back big games that had huge playoff implications. The Wizards are battling Charlotte for the coveted sixth spot in the Eastern Conference, and they lost to the Bobcats in overtime on Wednesday night. The Wizards bounced back strong off that disappointing loss last night as they won in Orlando 96-86. However, they needed a big fourth quarter (29-16) to overcome a 14-point deficit in that game. With that win, the Wizards took back the #6 spot after Charlotte lost in Boston. This is the ultimate flat spot game for Washington, especially since they are playing an also-ran team while laying double digits. We’ll take the big points with Milwaukee in this game on Saturday night. 10* Play BUCKS (+). |
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04-11-14 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Boston Celtics +4.5 | 103-106 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show | |
Charlotte comes into tonight’s game in Boston off a huge overtime win in Washington. The Bobcats basically secured at least the #6 spot in the playoffs in the Eastern Conference with that win; they’ve been battling the Wizards for that spot. Charlotte can still improve, so they still have something to play for. However, for a young team that has three starters that have never been in the post-season, tonight’s game is a flat spot, especially after clinching in dramatic fashion the other night. Kemba Walker is also unlikely to play tonight after he tweaked his groin late in their win over Washington. The Bobcats are off back-to-back overtime wins (four of their last seven games have gone to overtime) as road underdogs and now they are laying a handful of points. This is simply not a good situational spot for Charlotte, especially since they are a young team that is heading to the playoffs for the first time.
Boston has had a terrible season, and despite coming into tonight on a 9-game losing streak, the Celtics have not quit. Boston led by 9 points in the fourth quarter in Atlanta on Wednesday night before losing. The Celtics are playing just their second home game this month, and since they’ve lost their last three home games, we expect a good effort tonight. Boston is also taking a drop in class for this home game after facing the likes of Chicago, Toronto, Miami, and Phoenix. The Celtics are finally playing with their original starting five as both Rajon Rondo and Avery Bradley have returned to the court together. Nine of Boston’s last twelve losses have come by single digits, and that shows that this team has not given up on the season. Charlotte is simply in a bad situational spot, so we’ll take the home underdog in this game on Friday night. 9* Play CELTICS (+). |
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04-09-14 | Brooklyn Nets v. Orlando Magic +5.5 | 111-115 | Win | 100 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
Brooklyn fooled us last night by going into Miami and winning outright. Maybe the Nets simply match-up well versus the Heat since they’ve beat them four times this season. Despite taking a loss last night, we’re going to play-against Brooklyn once again tonight for similar reasons. The Nets are just 12-11 SU on the road in 2014; they are 21-2 SU at home during the same time. Brooklyn’s average road loss in 2014 has come by a whopping 13.9 points per game, and that shows how bad their play away from has been. The Nets are playing on a back-to-back road set tonight, and this will also be their fourth game in six nights and their sixth game over the last nine days. Off the spotlight win in Miami last night, this is simply a terrible situational and scheduling spot for Brooklyn.
Orlando has had a miserable season, but the Magic haven’t quit, especially when playing at home. They are 3-3 SU over their last six home games with two of the three losses coming by 5 points or less. Overall, Orlando is 18-20 on their home court this season, so they’ve been a tough out. Orlando is the much fresher team in this game as they’ve had three days off while Brooklyn has been grinding for playoff positioning. Orlando is also catching the Nets at the perfect time, just as they were when they beat Brooklyn 107-86 on this court. Brooklyn is 0-3 SU in games directly following their wins over Miami, and one of those losses was their 21-point defeat in Orlando. This is just a terrible spot for Brooklyn, so we’ll take the points with the home underdog in this game on Wednesday night. 10* Play MAGIC (+). |
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04-08-14 | Brooklyn Nets v. Miami Heat -7 | 88-87 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
Brooklyn has shown a big difference in their home and road splits since the start of 2014. At home, the Nets have been virtually unbeatable, racking up an incredible 21-2 record. On the road, the Nets have been mediocre at best while going just 11-11. One of those road wins did come in Miami last month when the Nets won 96-95 as 9-point road underdogs. Brooklyn has actually won all three meeting versus Miami this season with the three wins coming by a combined 11 points. When the Nets lose on the road, they tend to lose big as eight of their eleven losses have come by 7 points or more. Five of the losses were complete blowouts in which they lost by 16 points or more. Brooklyn’s average road loss in 2014 has come by a whopping 13.9 points per game. The Nets will be playing their fifth game over the last eight days, and they’ve been altering their lineup with Kevin Garnett going in and out.
Miami has turned things on down the stretch as they’ve won six of their last eight games with the two losses both coming by a single point each. Miami is also 6-1 ATS over their last seven games, and their last three home wins have all come by 10 points or more. Miami is quite focused on tonight’s game after losing to Brooklyn three times this season. The Heat also have the fresher legs since they’re playing their fifth consecutive home game, and only their fourth game this month. Overall, Miami is 31-7 at home this season where they are averaging 105.6 points per game on 51.7% shooting from the field and 37.2% shooting from three-point land. Brooklyn’s road defense has been poor all season as they allow 101.2 points per game. We expect Miami to bring their A-game tonight en route to an easy double digit win over the Nets. 10* Play HEAT (-). |
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04-06-14 | Memphis Grizzlies +7.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | 92-112 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
Memphis is fighting for a playoff spot, and coming into tonight’s game, the Grizzlies are tied for the eight and final spot with Phoenix. This is a huge game for Memphis, especially since the Suns are playing at home tonight. Memphis has lost all three games against San Antonio this season, but two of the three games were close. The Grizzlies lost by 2 points in overtime in the last meeting, and they took the Spurs to the wire in a 7-point loss in San Antonio in the first meeting. Memphis matches-up extremely well with San Antonio as four of the last ten meetings have gone to overtime, and six of the ten games were decided by 7 points or less. Memphis plays terrific defense as they only allow 94.2 points per game on 44.7% shooting from the field and 35.4% shooting from three-point land. San Antonio hasn’t faced a defense as good as Memphis’ in a long time, and since the Spurs are in a bad situational spot, we expect their offense to struggle tonight.
San Antonio’s 19-game winning streak got snapped on Thursday night when they lost 106-94 in Oklahoma City. There were reports circulating that Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich wanted the streak to end in order to give his team a breather heading into the playoffs. Off that streak-ending loss, we expect Popovich to limit the minutes of his starters, just like he has done in previous years. The Spurs have been on a remarkable run since the All-Star break, but it’s unsustainable, and we expect some short-term regression now. San Antonio played an extremely easy schedule during their winning streak, but their upcoming opponents will present stiffer challenges. Memphis will give the Spurs all they want in this game, and in a game that comes right down to the wire, we’ll take the points with the hungry and motivated underdog on Sunday night. 10* Play GRIZZLIES (+). |
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04-04-14 | Phoenix Suns v. Portland Trail Blazers -4.5 | 109-93 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
Phoenix had a big game at home versus the Los Angeles Clippers on Wednesday night. The Suns controlled that game for three quarters, but they fell apart in the fourth quarter and got out-scored 34-17 and lost 112-108. Phoenix blew a 17-point lead, and off that critical loss, we expect the Suns to play with a hangover tonight. The Suns have lost back-to-back games after winning eight of their previous nine games. Phoenix has failed to play any defense in their last two games as they’ve allowed a total of 227 points. The Suns’ defense doesn’t get any breaks tonight in Portland against a Blazers’ offense that averages 108.1 points per game on their home court.
Portland is playing much better basketball now that LeMarcus Aldridge is back on the court. While he was out with injury, the Trail Blazers really struggled and they lost 8 of 11 games. Portland comes into tonight’s game on a 4-game winning streak; they won those games by an average of 12.8 points per game. Portland will be playing just their fifth home game over their last sixteen games, so we can be sure they’ll bring a top effort. The Trail Blazers also have revenge after losing by 14 points in Phoenix in their last meeting. These two teams are just coming into this game from different directions, so we’ll lay the points with Portland on Friday night. 9* Play TRAIL BLAZERS (-). |
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04-04-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Houston Rockets -2.5 | 107-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
Oklahoma City comes in off a huge home win last night over the San Antonio Spurs. The Thunder snapped the Spurs 19-game winning streak after overcoming a halftime deficit. Oklahoma City out-scored San Antonio 58-43 in the second half after shooting 49.4% (40-81) from the field. Off that big win, Oklahoma City has to wheel right back and take to the road and face an opponent that is hungry and motivated for a win. The Thunder own three wins over Houston this season, so tonight’s game isn’t all that important to them. Oklahoma City is simply in a terrible spot for this game, and it’s quite conceivable they’ll play this game with little effort.
Houston is desperate for a win as they come in on a 3-game losing streak. The Rockets lost at home to the Clippers before heading on the road and losing in Brooklyn and in Toronto. The Rockets have been strong at home all season; Houston is 29-8 on their home court. The last time Houston lost two consecutive home games was way back in November when they were playing just their sixth and seventh games of the season. Houston has also been strong at home when playing off a road loss this season. The Rockets are 5-2 SU and ATS based on tonight’s posted pointspread with the five wins coming by an average of 15.6 points per game. This is a much bigger game for Houston, so we’ll lay the points with the hungry and motivated home favorite on Friday night. 9* Play ROCKETS (-). |
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04-04-14 | Milwaukee Bucks +11.5 v. Chicago Bulls | 90-102 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
Milwaukee has had an awful season; the Bucks are just 14-61 overall and 5-33 on the road. Despite those awful numbers, and with the season winding down, Milwaukee has not quit. The Bucks are still playing hard, and they’ve been competitive in their games. Over their last 24 games, Milwaukee is an incredible 20-4 ATS based on tonight’s posted pointspread. They’ve only lost four games by 12 points or more, and two of those losses came to the Miami Heat. The Bucks have given the Bulls fits all season as they won in Chicago and lost the other two games by only 1 and 9 points. Milwaukee comes in off an embarrassing loss in Miami, so we can be sure they will bring a good effort tonight, especially against a team they know they can compete with.
Chicago came into this week with the #4 seed for the playoffs in the Eastern Conference. The Bulls are 2-0 so far with wins over the Celtics at home and a road win in Atlanta. Tonight’s game is a big flat spot for Chicago because they have a huge game against the Wizards tomorrow night. The Bulls are 0-2 versus Washington this season, and with the Wizards sitting just a couple of games behind Chicago in the standings, that game is quite important. The Bulls will like to conserve their energy for the bigger game tomorrow night, so there’s a good chance they will just go thru the motions versus Milwaukee. The road team has been dominant in this series, winning nine of the last ten meetings, including eight straight. We’ll take the big points with Milwaukee in this game on Friday night. 10* Play BUCKS (+). |
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04-02-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Phoenix Suns -2.5 | 112-108 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
Los Angeles is not in a good situational or scheduling spot for tonight’s game in Phoenix. The Clippers are playing their last game of a 5-game road trip before heading back home and hosting the Mavericks tomorrow night. Los Angeles will also play this game without Blake Griffin (back), Jamal Crawford (Achilles), and Danny Granger (hamstring). The Clippers won their last game in Minnesota without that trio, but the Timberwolves are in poor form and the Suns are a much stiffer challenge tonight. Los Angeles is satisfied with their road trip as they’ve won their last three games after opening up with a loss in New Orleans. This is one of those games in which it’s highly likely that the Clippers will simply go thru the motions and play with little effort.
Phoenix is in need of wins to secure a spot in the playoffs, and tonight’s game against the Clippers presents them a great opportunity. The Suns have been playing good basketball since getting Eric Bledsoe back on the court; Phoenix is 8-3 since Bledsoe’s return. The Suns are just 1-2 SU versus the Clippers this season, but know that Bledsoe missed the two games in which they lost and he played in the game they won. Phoenix returns home off a road loss in Los Angeles to the Lakers, and the Suns have been strong when playing at home off a road loss. The Suns are 7-3 SU in this situation this season, winning by an average of 12.4 points per game with six of the seven wins coming by 11 points or more. Phoenix has had two days off since their last game, so they are fresh and ready for a peak performance. We’ll lay the points with the Suns in this game on Wednesday night. 9* Play SUNS (-). |
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03-31-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Indiana Pacers +4.5 | 103-77 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
San Antonio and Indiana have been playing on the opposite ends of the spectrum lately. The Spurs have been unbeatable, going an incredible 19-1 SU and 15-5 ATS over their last 20 games. The Pacers have been awful as they are just 6-9 SU and 2-13 ATS over their last 15 games. However, the posted line on this game gives us tremendous value on the home underdog. The line simply reflects the recent results, but those results are somewhat skewed due the opponents played. San Antonio has played the dregs of the league with 12 of their last 17 games coming against losing teams. The Spurs have also played 11 of their last 17 games at home. Things have been greatly in San Antonio’s favor over the last month, and while their results have been impressive, they’ve been facing a slew of terrible teams.
Indiana returns home off back-to-back road losses, and that ensures we’ll get a peak effort from the Pacers tonight. Indiana is an incredible 33-4 at home this season, and the fact they are getting a handful of points in this game is simply too good to pass up, even though their recent play has been poor. The Pacers have played 10 of their last 14 games on the road, and those games were against playoff teams like the Bobcats, Rockets, Mavericks, Grizzlies, and Bulls. Clearly, Indiana has played the much tougher schedule than San Antonio recently. But with the results being so opposite, the oddsmakers were forced to inflate the spread. Indiana won at San Antonio earlier this season, and there’s no reason they can’t beat the Spurs again. We’ll take the points with Indiana in this game on Monday night. 9* Play PACERS (+). |
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03-30-14 | Memphis Grizzlies +1.5 v. Portland Trail Blazers | 98-105 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
Memphis has gone unnoticed, but the Grizzlies have been playing good basketball for some time now. The Grizzlies are 17-7 SU over their last 24 games, and they come into tonight’s game off a loss at Golden State. Memphis has not lost back-to-back games since February 5th, and that means they are a perfect 7-0 their last seven games when playing off a SU loss. Memphis gave up 100 points to the Warriors in their last game, and that snapped an 11-game streak in which they’ve held an opponent to less than 100 points. The Grizzlies’ defense is strong, and off the poor effort, we expect a bounce back performance tonight. Over their last five games, Memphis has allowed just 88.2 points per game on 43.2% shooting from the field. Memphis is 2-0 against Portland this season, and the Grizzlies are 6-1 SU versus the Blazers in the last seven meetings. The Grizzlies hold a huge edge on the second unit as Portland’s bench leaves a lot to be desired.
Portland is not in a good scheduling spot for tonight’s game. The Blazers are returning home from a 5-game road trip that began in Charlotte and ended in Chicago. Portland is playing their fifth game of the week, and they are doing it over a 9-day span. Portland is facing a Memphis team that they simply match-up poorly against. Portland is a team that needs to play fast while scoring lots of points to be at their best. But Memphis plays at an extremely slow place, and their defense usually holds teams to less than 100 points; Memphis has held 30 of their last 35 opponents to less than 100 points. Portland is just 7-13 SU this season when held to less than 100 points, so we’ll take Memphis plus the points in this game on Sunday night. 9* Play GRIZZLIES (+). |
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03-29-14 | New Orleans Pelicans +13.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | 80-96 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
New Orleans is in good current form right now. The Pelicans have won five consecutive games, six of their last seven games, and nine of their last twelve games overall. Their three losses were all close with the margins of defeat coming by 8 points or less. That means New Orleans is on a perfect 12-0 ATS run based on tonight
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03-28-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Chicago Bulls -4.5 | 91-74 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
Portland is in the midst of a tough week with five games on the schedule. The Blazers
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03-26-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. New Orleans Pelicans +7 | 96-98 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
Los Angeles is an impressive 13-1 over their last fourteen games, and they are simply playing some terrific basketball. However, this is a bad scheduling and situational spot for the Clippers. They
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03-26-14 | Brooklyn Nets v. Charlotte Bobcats -2 | 111-116 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
Brooklyn has been one of the better teams in the NBA since the start of the New Year. The Nets are 27-11 SU in 2014, but they
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03-25-14 | Toronto Raptors v. Cleveland Cavaliers +4.5 | 100-102 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
Toronto will play four games this week, including three on the road. The Raptors play in Cleveland tonight, and then they
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03-24-14 | Phoenix Suns v. Atlanta Hawks +2.5 | 102-95 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 39 m | Show | |
Phoenix is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for tonight
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03-21-14 | Detroit Pistons v. Phoenix Suns OVER 217 | 92-98 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
Detroit is playing out the string, and because of that, the Pistons are giving little effort on the defensive end of the court, especially on the road. Detroit has allowed 101 points or more in eleven consecutive road games, and that streak is definitely going to extend tonight. In those eleven games, the Pistons have allowed an average of 112.6 points per game. Overall, Detroit
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03-21-14 | Denver Nuggets +8.5 v. Dallas Mavericks | 106-122 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
Denver is playing their best basketball of the season right now. The Nuggets are 4-1 over their last five games and 6-5 over their last eleven games. Denver
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03-19-14 | Indiana Pacers -2 v. New York Knicks | 86-92 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
Indiana was in poor form when they slumped thru a 4-game losing streak two weeks ago. But since then, the Pacers have gotten back to their good form, and they
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03-17-14 | Phoenix Suns v. Brooklyn Nets -4 | 95-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
Phoenix is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for tonight
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03-16-14 | Golden State Warriors v. Portland Trail Blazers OVER 207.5 | 113-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
Golden State has lost their last two games, so they
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03-15-14 | Indiana Pacers -5 v. Detroit Pistons | 112-104 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show | |
Indiana did not play good basketball last week as the Pacers slumped thru a 4-game losing streak. The four losses were all forgivable because they came against playoff-bound teams like the Warriors, Bobcats, Rockets, and Mavericks. Indiana has won back-to-back games since, including last night
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03-14-14 | Denver Nuggets +11 v. Miami Heat | 111-107 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
Denver is playing much better basketball right now despite what their win/loss record shows. The Nuggets are just 3-4 SU over their last seven games, but their four losses have come by 6, 4, 7, and 4 points in overtime. Denver could very well be on a perfect 7-0 SU run with a little luck, and the value remains on this team because of the losing results. Denver
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03-13-14 | Houston Rockets v. Chicago Bulls +3.5 | 87-111 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
Houston comes in off a big 106-98 loss at Oklahoma City on Tuesday night. The Rockets were quite focused on that game as they had lost in blowouts to the Thunder twice earlier in the season. Off that disappointing loss, we expect Houston to play with a bit of a hangover tonight, and they get no favors in the opponent they will face. Houston is a team that needs to play fast while scoring a lot of points to be at their best. The Rockets have been held to less than 100 points 17 times this season; they are just 4-13 SU and ATS based on tonight
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03-12-14 | Portland Trail Blazers +7.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | 90-103 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
Portland was facing a terrible match-up last night in Memphis, and we won a Best Bet going against the Trail Blazers. But tonight
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03-12-14 | Charlotte Bobcats +4.5 v. Washington Wizards | 98-85 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
Charlotte played a brutal schedule over the last two weeks with games against elite teams like San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Miami, Indiana, and Memphis. The Bobcats
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03-12-14 | Denver Nuggets -1.5 v. Orlando Magic | 120-112 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
Denver is playing much better basketball right now despite what their win/loss record shows. The Nuggets are just 2-4 SU over their last six games, but their four losses have come by 6, 4, 7, and 4 points in overtime. Denver could very well be on a perfect 6-0 SU run with a little luck, and the value remains on this team because of the losing results. Denver is finally getting some class relief against a bad Orlando team that is just 19-46 on the season. The Nuggets have been facing the elite teams of the West, and their recent opponents from the East are also playoff bound. Denver crushed Orlando by 26 points (120-94) earlier this season, and there
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03-11-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Chicago Bulls +5 | 104-96 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
San Antonio has been playing good basketball since the All-Star Break. However, the Spurs have been extremely fortunate as they
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03-11-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Memphis Grizzlies -3 | 99-109 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
Portland is not in good current form right now. The Trail Blazers have lost back-to-back games and three of their last four games overall. Things don
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03-11-14 | Houston Rockets +4 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | 98-106 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
Houston came out of the All-Star Break on a mission as they are 8-2 SU in the ten games they
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03-10-14 | Washington Wizards v. Miami Heat OVER 204 | 90-99 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
Washington is playing some outstanding basketball right now, especially their offense. The Wizards have won eight of their ten games since the All-Star Break, and a big reason for their winning ways has been the play of their offense. Washington has scored 104 points or more in six consecutive games while averaging 115.5 points per game. The Wizards are shooting 50.6% from the field and 42.7% from three-point land. As good as their offense has been, their defense has been poor. Over their last five games, the Wizards are giving up 108 points per game on 46.7% shooting from the field. Washington has allowed 107, 103, and 129 points in their last three road games, and we expect another poor defensive performance from the Wizards in this game.
Miami comes into tonight on a 3-game losing streak. All three of those games were on the road, so a return home should spark the Heat. Miami |