Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-02-23 | 76ers v. Bucks -5 | 104-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Milwaukee lost to Boston on Thursday, but that may be good news for Bucks fans, as this team has not lost back-to-back games since January 12-14. They have been consistently the best team in the NBA over the last 10 weeks, and that is bad news for a 76ers team that enters this game as losers of their last three games on the road. The Milwaukee defense has been struggling of late, but they are averaging 124.8 points per game over their last five, and Philadelphia simply does not take enough shots to take advantage of the defensive lapses of the Bucks. Philadelphia has won the last two meetings between these teams, including earning a three-point victory over Milwaukee on March 4. Look for the Bucks to get a little revenge. |
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04-02-23 | Lakers -11 v. Rockets | 134-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Los Angeles is currently 7th in the Western Conference playoff standings and would take part in the play-in part of the postseason but is within 1 ½ games of sixth place which would mean they would not have to take part in the play-in. At the same time, Los Angeles is only 1 ½ games in front of the 10th and final spot for postseason qualification in the West. Therefore, the Lakers have far more incentive to win than Houston, which has been eliminated from playoff contention and is last in the Western Conference. Houston's offense and defense has struggled all season as the Rockets are next to last in scoring and second from last in points allowed. Los Angeles has covered the spread in four of its last five, while Houston has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five. |
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04-01-23 | Mavs +1.5 v. Heat | 122-129 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Miami is not in jeopardy of missing the playoffs, like Dallas is, and has several key injury designations heading into this pivotal matchup. Three Heat players, Nikola Jovic (back), Kyle Lowry (knee), and Bam Adebayo (hip), are hurt and questionable to play. Only Frank Ntilikina (knee) is questionable to play for Dallas. The betting trends also suggest the Mavericks are the team to have faith in. The Heat are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400 and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games playing on two days' rest. Taking all of this into account, including Dallas' dominant showing versus Miami earlier this season, I'll bet on the Mavs. |
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03-31-23 | Nuggets +9.5 v. Suns | 93-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Thursday’s games have been excluded from the analysis, and the 51-24 Denver Nuggets hosted the New Orleans Pelicans, searching for their fifth consecutive victory. Over their previous four showings, the Nuggets have beaten the Brooklyn Nets 108-102, Washington Wizards 118-104, Milwaukee Bucks 129-106, and Philadelphia 76ers 116-111. Last Monday, Nikola Jokic posted a triple-double of 25 points, 17 rebounds, and 12 assists to lift his team over the 76ers, who missed both Joel Embiid and James Harden. The Nuggets shot 50.6% from the field and posted a terrific 34/12 assist-to-turnover ratio. |
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03-31-23 | Hawks v. Nets | 107-124 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Atlanta Hawks have won two of their last three games including a home win against the Cavaliers on Tuesday. The Brooklyn Nets have been hit or miss recently. They have dropped six of their last eight games including disappointing losses against the Kings and Magic. They only covered twice in that eight-game span. The Hawks continue to dazzle offensively, averaging a remarkable 127 points in their last five games. Atlanta is hot from three-point range where they have connected on 38.6% of their threes in their last three games. This is key as the Nets give up plenty of threes, ranking 25th in the NBA in three-point defense. The Nets have not been reliable at home, going 1-4 in their last five home games, covering just once. |
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03-31-23 | Thunder -130 v. Pacers | 117-121 | Loss | -130 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Thunder have won four of their last seven games. They are playing well offensively, scoring more than 119 points per game in their last three games. They’ve taken advantage of their opportunities at the charity stripe, making over 80 percent of their free throws. They rebound the ball well and they’re very aggressive on the offensive glass, grabbing more than 11 offensive rebounds per game on the road, which will give them more scoring chances. They also cut back on their turnovers in recent games, and won’t give the Pacers a lot of easy-scoring opportunities. The Pacers have one of the worst defenses in the league and they’re playing worse at the moment, giving up more than 135 points per game in their last three games, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Thunder in this game. The Pacers have lost six of their last seven games and three straight home games. Despite their slump, they are playing well offensively, scoring more than 120 points per game in their last three games. Their rebounding dropped off in their last three games, so don’t expect them to get a lot of extra-scoring chances against the Thunder. They’ve also been careless with the ball, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Thunder, who more than 10 steals per game in their last three games. Even though the Thunder have struggled defensively on the road, they played well in their last two road games and won’t have trouble keeping Indiana’s offense in check. |
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03-27-23 | Bulls +4.5 v. Clippers | 112-124 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bulls have been red hot lately, going 7-2 over their last nine and have gone 4-1 ATS over their last five, and are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four road games. Chicago is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings between these teams and is 4-1 ATS in the five meetings between these teams in Los Angeles. Chicago is playing on back-to-back nights which would seem to give the Clippers a big edge. However, this team is not as good without Paul George, and Kawhi Leonard is battling an injury as well. The Bulls should win this game outright, but look for them to cover the spread regardless. |
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03-27-23 | Suns -6.5 v. Jazz | 117-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Utah Jazz (35-39) and Phoenix Suns (39-35) have a couple of things in common heading into the home stretch of the season. Both teams are still in the thick of it when it comes to the postseason. And both are trying to make do without key players. And like the Suns did Saturday night against Philadelphia, the Jazz come into Monday's matchup in Salt Lake City hoping to break a three-game losing streak. Utah came close to finding a way to win in Sacramento on Saturday despite missing its three leading scorers: Lauri Markkanen, Jordan Clarkson and Collin Sexton. Consider that the Suns are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Utah while the Jazz are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. |
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03-26-23 | Nets v. Magic -135 | 106-119 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Brooklyn is playing the second game of a back-to-back here and their third game in four nights. The Nets have a bit of a depleted roster after dealing away Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving ahead of the trade deadline. While the pieces the Nets got in return are solid players, they were secondary pieces on their previous teams. Dinwiddie was playing second fiddle to Luka Doncic in Dallas while Bridges and Johnson were on a Phoenix team with Devin Booker, Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton. There is no star player to lean on in crunch time for the Nets, which we saw was a problem in the loss to Cleveland Thursday. Orlando has hung around the playoff picture and have won three of their last four. The Magic has developed a decent rotation to work with and they have home court, along with a rest advantage. Give Orlando the edge in this contest. |
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03-25-23 | Bucks v. Nuggets -140 | 106-129 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While this game is not necessarily critical to either team with both in a great position to earn the #1 seed in their respective conferences, the Nuggets would appear to have more motivation. Denver comes in well-rested after a recent road trip and the healthier of the two teams. Milwaukee is in the second game of a four-game trip, the final road trip of the season. The Bucks come in after playing in Utah on Friday night and, while they have been excellent this season in back-to-backs with a 9-1 record, staying healthy here will be more of a premium than getting the win. Denver, meanwhile, is 30-6 at home and 11 games over .500 at home ATS. Denver has won three out of its last four games after suffering through a four-game losing streak. The Nuggets are also 3-1 ATS in that time. |
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03-24-23 | Rockets v. Grizzlies -13 | 114-151 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is all about identifying value as these teams get set to meet for the second game in a row. Houston covered as a 12-point underdog on Wednesday, so many bettors are going to be surprised that the line is 1.5 points larger on Friday. However, Memphis was playing without Brooks in the first matchup and Morant was playing for the first time in weeks. Brooks will return from his one-game suspension on Friday, and Morant should be in better form after knocking off the rust. The Grizzlies have won 10 straight home games and have won eight of the last nine meetings between these teams. |
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03-23-23 | Cavs -165 v. Nets | 116-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These teams have trended in different directions of late with Cleveland taking seven of their last nine games while the Nets have dropped four straight. Brooklyn made a pair of massive deals at the trade deadline, sending Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving to Phoenix and Dallas, respectively. While Bridges, Johnson and Dinwiddie are good players, it takes time to incorporate new pieces into the rotation, which is made tougher when a player like Simmons is out of the mix. Brooklyn has had to try and rely on getting production from lesser pieces in an effort to remain competitive. That’s proved problematic as they entered Wednesday just half a game ahead of the Heat to avoid the play-in tournament. Cleveland is healthy and they just showed that they can handle the Nets in their own building. Take the Cavaliers here to sweep the two-game set. |
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03-22-23 | Rockets +13 v. Grizzlies | 125-130 | Win | 100 | 4 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It's hard to feel great about betting on the Rockets, but Houston is playing .500 ball over its last 10 games, and none of the previous four losses have been by more than 13 points. Memphis is a far better team, but Houston has not stopped playing hard, and I expect this to be a bit of a distracting night with Ja Morant back, and Dillion Brooks suspended. The Grizzlies will win this game, but I would not lay more than 10 points on the spread in this spot, regardless of how good they have been at home. Memphis will also face Houston again on Friday, so I would not be shocked to see a letdown here. |
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03-21-23 | Spurs v. Pelicans -13 | 84-119 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units New Orleans is in the thick of the playoff race while San Antonio is trying to lose games to try and get the first overall pick and turn their franchise around, which is why I like the Pelicans here to win and cover the large spread. Both New Orleans and the Spurs have struggled against the spread this season but San Antonio is 30-41 ATS which is third worst and as a road underdog, the Spurs are 11-22. The Pelicans, meanwhile, are 12-12 ATS which is much better than their overall ATS record. As well, this season, New Orleans is 3-0 against San Antonio with the average margin of victory being 15.3 PPG. The Pelicans' offense should have a field day against this Spurs defense which is arguably the worst in the NBA. |
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03-21-23 | Cavs -165 v. Nets | 115-109 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Brooklyn's having offensive issues and going up against the NBA's top defense. I know that Cleveland isn't the same on the road, but that sounds like a recipe for disaster. The Nets are reeling right now in general, and this is a tight spread against a tough team that's playing well. At this point of the season, Cleveland is better on both ends of the floor, and even if Jarrett Allen doesn't play that shouldn't change the outcome of this game. Take the Cavaliers on the spread while it's still only two points. |
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03-20-23 | Warriors -11 v. Rockets | 121-108 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Warriors come in slumping but the undisciplined Rockets should be just what the doctor ordered for them on Monday night. Golden State should feast on Houston's struggles to cover the perimeter and will be happy to play this game at an uptempo pace thanks to what should be a bevy of turnovers between the two teams. I am confident that the Warriors will see a major bounce-back game from the Splash Brothers on Monday night and pull away quickly from the hapless Rockets. Golden State is 9-1 in the last ten meetings with Houston and, with ten games left on the schedule, this is a must-win for the defending champs. The Rockets are also just 2-9 in the second game of back-to-back games this season. |
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03-20-23 | Wolves v. Knicks -8 | 140-134 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Knicks have been phenomenal lately, and even appear to have solved their issues at home. They've won eight of 10 at home after a 12-14 start in the Mecca. New York has also beaten the spread in their last three. Then there's Minnesota, who has lost ATS in four of six and owns a 15-20 record on the road (16-19-0 ATS). That's without mentioning they may not have Anthony Edwards or Rudy Gobert for this matchup, their top offensive and defensive player. This game is New York's to lose, and with how they've been playing lately, I don't believe they will. Take the Knicks to cover. |
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03-20-23 | Bulls v. 76ers -8.5 | 109-105 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units How does one bet against Philly at this point, given the run they are on. They have won 8 straight and 9 of their last 10 and are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games. They won their last three games on the road and are returning home for this one, so the appreciative Philly fans should give them an added boost. They then turn around and head out on the road again after this one, and that will be a tough stretch. It starts with Chicago again, at Chicago, and that could be a Philly loss. But for this one on Monday -- they will be happy to be home and they will take care of business. Take the Sixers to cover. |
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03-19-23 | Suns v. Thunder -115 | 120-124 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Oklahoma City has been one of the most profitable teams in the NBA in recent weeks, covering the spread in six of its last eight games. The Thunder have been a team that I have been backing for several years, as they are continuously underrated by the betting market. They have been dominant against Phoenix at home, winning 17 of the last 19 meetings. The Suns have been trending in the opposite direction, only covering once in their last five games. They are going to be a contender when Durant returns, but they are a team to fade right now. |
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03-18-23 | Heat -150 v. Bulls | 99-113 | Loss | -150 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Miami is on track to finish in the top ten of the Eastern Conference, but to make another deep run in the NBA Playoffs, it will take more consistency down the stretch of the regular season. The Heat can finish strong with more performances like Wednesday's, which gives them something to build on. After taking down Cleveland, Utah, and Memphis in three of its past four, this appears to be the beginning of a more significant victory run for Miami. Chicago didn't play poorly on Wednesday but can't continue to lose winnable games if it hopes to make any noise in the playoffs. After dropping consecutive games to Phoenix and Indiana, they bounced back against Houston and Denver before falling at the buzzer to Sacramento. While I expect them to win as spread favorites on Friday versus Minnesota, I'm not as bullish on them winning SU or covering versus Miami with zero day's rest. |
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03-18-23 | Kings -140 v. Wizards | 132-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Wizards aren't good enough defensively to consistently slow the Kings down, as they won't get enough stops to cover this spread. According to dunksandthrees.com, the Wizards only have the 20th lowest adjusted defensive rating and they are surrendering the 14th most points per game. Sacramento is one of the best offensive teams in the NBA, as they are scoring the most points per game and they have the highest adjusted offensive rating. They will efficiently score throughout this game and cover this spread. Sacramento is also (8-2) in their last 10 games played, as they are playing great basketball right now. They are the hotter team and they will be ready for this matchup on the road. Now, Washington won't have the same offensive success, as they are only averaging the 21st most points per game and they've struggled to shoot from the outside. Sacramento will defend the paint and do everything they can to keep the Wizards off the scoreboard. |
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03-18-23 | Nuggets v. Knicks +2 | 110-116 | Win | 100 | 3 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units New York has been one of the hottest teams in the NBA since the beginning of February, winning and covering the spread in 11 of its last 14 games The Knicks have also covered the spread in six of their last seven home games, despite struggling at Madison Square Garden earlier in the year. They are facing a Denver team that has been trending in the opposite direction, winning once in its last five games and covering once in its last six games. New York could get an additional boost if Brunson returns, so I will back the team with momentum in this matchup. |
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03-17-23 | Grizzlies -8.5 v. Spurs | 126-120 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units There are some negatives surrounding both of these teams right now, but I feel much better about backing a Memphis team that is motivated to get back on track. The Grizzlies have won 10 straight meetings between these teams, including six in a row in San Antonio. They had won three straight games prior to their loss against Miami, so they have been playing decent basketball without Morant on the court. Meanwhile, San Antonio has only covered the spread five times in its last 20 games. The Spurs have not only been losing games, but they have not been competitive in most of them. |
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03-17-23 | 76ers -10.5 v. Hornets | 121-82 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I don't expect the Sixers to take a night off at this point, with the team so close to the second spot in the Eastern Conference standings. The two teams have split the previous two meetings this season but haven't squared off since December. Both teams have gone through changes since then and the Sixers are now arguably the hottest team in the NBA. Charlotte will not have any answers for Embiid and he should dominate this matchup. Additionally, I expect the Sixers to exploit Charlotte's mediocre perimeter defense with the league's best 3pt shooting. Charlotte is positioning for the most ping-pong balls in the draft lottery while the Sixers are trying to earn home-court advantage in the playoffs. |
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03-16-23 | Pacers v. Bucks -13 | 139-123 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bucks have won 10 straight games over the Pacers, including 2-0 this season. In that time, Milwaukee is also 8-2 ATS vs. the Pacers. Milwaukee's defense should be able to stifle the Pacers' offense which is just 25th in the league in field goal shooting. On the season, the Bucks are 28-6 at home and 46-10 as favorites. Indiana is just 1-5 ATS in its last six meetings with the Bucks and has won just four of its last 17 road games. The Bucks have not shown a proclivity to slow down over the last two months and I don't expect a letdown game here upon their return home from the trip. |
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03-16-23 | Nuggets v. Pistons +15 | 119-100 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I love a contrarian bet, and this one certainly fits the bill. The Nuggets are still the top team in the Western Conference, but they have failed to cover the spread in five straight games and are riding a four-game losing streak overall. They are facing a Detroit team that no one wants to bet on right now, but the Pistons picked up an outright win earlier this week and will be getting a boost when Ivey from a three-game absence. The Pistons have covered the spread in seven of their last 10 games against Denver, including an outright win earlier this season, and they have value as double-digit underdogs on Thursday. |
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03-15-23 | Celtics -195 v. Wolves | 104-102 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Boston will be highly motivated to bounce back in this game after their terrible loss to the Rockets, as they will dominate on both ends of the court in this game. According to dunksandthrees.com, the Celtics have the third-lowest adjusted offensive rating and the fourth-lowest adjusted defensive rating. They will get the job done on both ends of the court and easily cover the spread in this game. Minnesota has continued to struggle on the offensive end of the court, as they won't be able to efficiently score in this one. The Celtics are holding their opponents to the ninth least amount of points per game and the sixth-lowest shooting percentage. They will contest shots near the rim and on the perimeter and keep the Timberwolves from scoring enough points to cover this spread. Boston is still one of the top teams in the NBA in my opinion and they will show that in this game. |
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03-15-23 | 76ers v. Cavs +2.5 | 118-109 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cleveland was clearly doing some load management on Tuesday night to be fully prepared for this critical matchup. The Cavaliers were able to give Mitchell a day off, so their leading scorer and top defender should be fresh on Wednesday. Allen’s status is still up in the air at the time of writing, but his return would provide a big boost as well. Philadelphia looked terrible in its first trip to Cleveland this season, getting blown out in a 113-85 final. The Cavaliers top-ranked defense held Embiid to just 19 points in one of his worst outings of the campaign. They need this game worse than Philadelphia as far as the standings go, and I expect them to come up with a big win. |
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03-14-23 | Nets v. Thunder -120 | 107-121 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I am going to ride with the OKC Thunder ML in this game, as they are the home team and I don't believe the Nets are as good as their numbers look. Without Durant and Irving, they aren't the same team and I believe the Thunder are good enough to consistently stop them. According to dunksandthrees.com, the Thunder have the ninth-lowest adjusted defensive rating and they are holding their opponents to the 13th-lowest shooting percentage from the field. They will smother the Nets and keep them from scoring enough points to cover this spread. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is still listed as questionable and we probably won't know if he is playing until right before the game, but I see the Thunder winning regardless of him being on the floor. But, if he does play. Then, I would hammer the Thunder as fast as I could. OKC is also scoring the fourth most points per game and they can score anywhere on the floor. Brooklyn will struggle to slow them down and the Thunder will pick up another win at home. |
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03-14-23 | Lakers +1.5 v. Pelicans | 123-108 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I am going to ride with the Lakers on the road, as I like the additions that they made at the trade deadline and they will be highly motivated to bounce back after losing their last game to the Knicks. I don't trust the New Orleans Pelicans right now, either. They are currently dealing with injuries, as Ingram is questionable for this game and Zion is still out. This has hurt them all season, and I see that trend continuing in this one. I don't believe the Pelicans will be able to efficiently score against the Lakers, as they have the 14th-lowest adjusted defensive rating and they are holding their opponents to the 10th-lowest shooting percentage from the field. They will make it tough for the Pels and New Orleans will slowly fall behind in this game. I also trust this Los Angeles offense, as they are averaging the eighth most points per game and they have the 11th-highest team shooting percentage. They will continue to attack the basket throughout this game and slowly pull away. The Lakers are playing desperately and the Pelicans have continued to slide in the wrong direction. |
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03-13-23 | Suns v. Warriors -177 | 112-123 | Win | 100 | 4 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Golden State’s home-road splits have been one of the major storylines throughout this NBA season, and it is not something I am going to fade on Monday night. The Warriors are just 7-26 on the road this year, but they are 28-7 in their 35 home games. They have covered the spread at a tremendous 23-11-1 clip in their games at the Chase Center, and Phoenix has a losing record on the road. Durant’s absence and Curry’s return make this an even easier selection, especially since the Warriors have covered in seven straight home games. Phoenix has only covered once in its last five trips to Golden State. |
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03-13-23 | Celtics -12.5 v. Rockets | 109-111 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Celtics won't have any issues rolling along to a big win on Monday night against one of the NBA's worst teams. Even though they'll be hitting the road, that didn't seem to bother them in the first game of their road trip, while Houston has one of the worst home-court advantages in the league. The Rockets' lone advantage this season has been their rebounding but with Sengun questionable, even that expects to be thrown out the window. On the other side, the Celtics' core is getting healthier and healthier and finally regaining the form that saw them dominate the first half of the season. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Celtics are 4-1 in their last five games against teams with a losing straight-up record, while Houston is 0-5 ATS in their last five games against a team with a winning percentage above .600. |
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03-13-23 | Pacers -155 v. Pistons | 97-117 | Loss | -155 | 1 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Indiana Pacers are battling for the last play-in spot in the conference and every game is huge at this point. The stumbling Pistons have nothing to play for and are dealing with one of the most depleted lineups in the league. They are playing without Cade Cunningham, and Bojan Bogdanovic while Alec Burks, Jaden Ivey, and Marvin Bagley III are all questionable. The Pacers are playing strong basketball on the road, winning four of their last five road bouts including Saturday's win in Detroit. They covered in four of the five games in that span. Detroit has lost 11 straight games and four of their last five defeats have all been by six or more points. |
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03-12-23 | Knicks v. Lakers -135 | 112-108 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Not only does New York have to play on back-to-back nights, but the Knicks have been terrible defensively of late, allowing 120.2 points per game over their last five. That includes allowing at least 118 in four of their last five games. The Knicks have been very good offensively of late, but face a tough Clippers team on Saturday and then have to come back to take on the Lakers. That is a gauntlet and should decrease their offensive production by at least six points. Plus, the Lakers are playing better defense, really clamping down which should drop the N.Y. offense even more. |
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03-12-23 | Wizards v. 76ers -7 | 93-112 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I am going to ride with the Philadelphia 76ers and I am going to lay the points at home. They are currently (25-10) inside the Wells Fargo Center this season, as I see them staying hot in this game. They have the advantage on both ends of the court, as they will slowly pull away throughout this game. According to dunksandthrees.com, the 76ers have the fourth-highest adjusted offensive rating and the ninth-lowest defensive rating. They will get the job done on both ends of the court and dominate in this game. The Wizards are only (4-6) in their last 10 and they've continued to struggle on the defensive end of the court. Washington won't get enough stops to cover the spread, as they only have the 20th lowest adjusted defensive rating and they are allowing the 16th most points per game. They've struggled to defend on the perimeter, as Philadelphia will get hot from the outside and pull away throughout this game. Philadelphia is scoring the 14th most points per game and they have the highest three-point shooting percentage in the league. They will score throughout and cover the spread at home |
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03-11-23 | Mavs v. Grizzlies -5.5 | 108-112 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
03-10-23 | Cavs +2.5 v. Heat | 115-119 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I like the Cavaliers on the road, as they just took down this same Heat team on Wednesday night and they are the better offensive team in this matchup. They will find different ways to score, as they have the ninth-highest adjusted offensive rating and they have the sixth-highest team shooting percentage. They will efficiently score against this Heat defense and slowly pull away throughout this game. Miami will have a difficult time keeping up with the Cavs, as they have continued to struggle on the offensive end of the court. According to dunksandthrees.com, they only have the 26th-highest adjusted offensive rating and they are averaging the least amount of points per game. The Cavaliers have one of the best defenses in the NBA and they will be ready for this game on the road. They will clamp down on the Heat and keep them from scoring enough points to cover this spread. The Cavaliers are currently holding their opponents to the least amount of points per game and they have the lowest adjusted defensive rating. They will dominate on both ends of the court and cover the spread in this game. |
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03-10-23 | Nets +4.5 v. Wolves | 124-123 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Even though they'll be playing for the second-straight night, the Nets were able to rest their starters on Thursday, which will serve them well in covering the spread and springing the upset in this one. They have the wing talent to make a difference in this one and while the frontcourt has been a disadvantage to them on most nights, this is a matchup where that can be minimized. For the Timberwolves, a lack of solid home-court advantage has been a challenge for them to overcome as well. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Nets are 5-1 ATS in their last six Friday games, while the Timberwolves are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games and 2-6 ATS in their last eight games playing on two days of rest. |
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03-10-23 | Blazers +8.5 v. 76ers | 119-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The history book shows Portland 21-12 SU and 18-13-2 ATS in this series when Philly sports a .426 or greater win percentage, including 10-2 SU and 8-3-1 ATS when looking to avenge a same-season loss. Meanwhile, the Sixers enter off a same season revenge contest of their own with the Timberwolves toting a 4-12 ATS ledger as home chalk after meetings with Minnesota while having a same-season double revenger on deck with Washington. Connect the dots and put the Trail Blazers on your playlist tonight. |
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03-09-23 | Nets v. Bucks -12 | 113-118 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bucks have some of the best depth in the NBA and even with their injuries, adding that depth to their homecourt advantage, will be too much for the Nets to overcome. Brooklyn continues their road trip and with fatigue setting in, they don't have the legs to keep up with the Bucks in this one. The biggest difference between these two sides is their rebounding ability and with the Bucks having that advantage on the glass on both ends, their ability to dominate in second-chance scoring will push them forward toward covering the spread in this one. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Bucks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games played off of one day of rest, while they are also 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams in Milwaukee. |
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03-09-23 | Warriors v. Grizzlies +2.5 | Top | 110-131 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units The Dubs have won five out of the last six games against the Grizzlies overall, but they are 5-0 at home during that stretch. On the road, Memphis has beaten the Warriors in four of the last games straight up, and the Grizzlies are 6-0 ATS in the last six games against the Warriors at FedEx Forum. I understand Morant will not be playing, but Memphis is 4-1 straight up in home games without him this season. Both of these teams have been so drastically different at home vs on the road this season. I have to take the home dog here. |
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03-07-23 | Warriors v. Thunder +4.5 | 128-137 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s getting nitty-gritty time for the Thunder who find themselves 1.5 games back of the 10th and final playoff seed in the Western Conference at press time. The good news is they will carry a double revenge chip on their shoulders into this contest from a pair of setbacks they suffered at the hands of the Warriors in January and February earlier this year. And they’ll do so on a home court where they stood 18-12 SUATS this season at press time. Better yet, the big boom is 4-1-1 ATS this season when seeking same season revenge from a 20-plus point same-season defeat while the Dubs are 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS away on Tuesdays. With Goldie arriving off a revenge tussle with the Lakers, there's only one way to look here. |
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03-07-23 | Bucks -7 v. Magic | 134-123 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Milwaukee finally lost a game over the weekend, but the Bucks immediately got back on track. They also held a big lead in their loss to the 76ers, so they could easily be riding an 18-game winning streak right now. I am not ready to fade them at this point, as they have covered the spread at an 8-2-2 clip in their last 12 games. They have also covered in four of their last five games against Orlando, cruising to a 22-point win as 8-point favorites when these teams met last week. I don’t see any reason why the Magic will be better prepared to cover the spread this time around, especially with Milwaukee facing a tight battle for the No. 1 seed. |
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03-06-23 | Raptors v. Nuggets -6 | 113-118 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Denver is on fire, winning 11 of their last 14 contests, but they are not just winning games – they are dominating them. The last three opponents have been defeated by at least 10 points and they have won each of their last six games at home by at least nine points. The Nuggets are now 20-7 ATS in their last 27 home games and 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games overall. Toronto has lost two of their last three games on the road and it took overtime to win in Washington. The Raptors are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games on the road and are 1-4 ATS in their last five games on the road when facing a team with a winning percentage of greater than 60% at home. Denver is tough to beat already, posting the top shooting percentage in the NBA while Toronto is one of the worst teams in terms of shutting opponents down. Not a good match-up for the Raptors at all. |
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03-06-23 | Celtics v. Cavs -6.5 | 114-118 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cleveland has been one of the league’s best home teams this season, going 27-7 in its 34 outings. The Cavaliers have also covered the spread at a 21-11-2 clip in those games, so they have been an excellent betting option at home. This is another profitable spot to back them, as Boston is on the second leg of a back-to-back and is going to lack energy against the top defense in the NBA. Cleveland is also coming off a strong performance against Detroit and will be motivated to get revenge for its loss to Boston last week. The Celtics are also dealing with several key injuries, giving me another reason to back Cleveland today. |
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03-05-23 | Bucks -180 v. Wizards | 117-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Milwaukee is going to be an angry team after blowing a 19-point lead on Saturday and even if they are tired, they have so much depth, that they can overcome a bad game from a starter. When you can bring a Kris Middleton or Jon Ingles off the bench, you are living pretty well. Washington had a great chance to come into this one off a three-game winning streak, but at 10th in the Eastern Conference, they are what they are-a very average team. Having that kind of depth is crucial when you are playing the back end of a back-to-back and the Wiz could be missing 2-3 key players. |
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03-05-23 | Knicks +5.5 v. Celtics | 131-129 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units New York has already beaten Boston during their eight-game winning streak, winning 109-94 on February 27. That was the second straight time that they had beaten the Celtics, earning an overtime victory in Boston on January 26. While the Celtics may be higher up in the standings, New York is not the least bit intimidated by them and has been playing better basketball than Boston over the last 10 days. Right now, it is the way that New York is defeating opponents that is quite impressive. During the winning streak, they have beaten five of the eight opponents by at least 15 points, with Boston being one of those victories. The Celtics suddenly find themselves battling through a lot of close contests and look like they will be clipped in this game. |
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03-05-23 | Pacers v. Bulls -5.5 | 125-122 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The good news for the Windy City crew is its 8-2 ATS record in this series when seeking same season double revenge exact, including 4-0 ATS at home as well as 5-0 ATS with revenge from a most recent loss of 10 or fewer points. The recent swoon by the Bulls (2-7 SUATS previous nine games entering March) helps to make the price right today, and with it we’ll be there. Remember, the Pacers took a 5-17 SU and 9-13 ATS ledger into the month of March itself, so the Naptown arsonists arrive with a combustible warning of their own. Finally, consider that Indiana is 11-25-1 ATS away versus foes seeking same-season double revenge, including 0-4 ATS the last four games. |
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03-04-23 | 76ers v. Bucks -183 | Top | 133-130 | Loss | -183 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Week Rating: 4 Units The Sixers edged the Bucks, 110-102, in Philly in their most recent get-together in November, setting the table for this payback, as Milwaukee has reeled off six wins in a row in same-season revengers entering the fray. In addition, John Deere has gone 18-3 SU and 16-5 ATS when laying fewer than 8 points as a host this season. We’re not jumping in front of that, especially with added support that Milwaukee is 23-8 SU and 20-11 ATS in this series, including 7-1 SUATS with same-season revenge, as well as 5-0 SUATS when the Bucks own a winning record. |
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03-03-23 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets -190 | 97-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Nuggets have won six of their last seven games and six straight home games. They have played well offensively, especially at home where they are scoring more than 121 points per game while making over 52 percent of their shots. They do a great job finding the open man and they were very aggressive on the offensive glass in their last three games, grabbing 11 offensive rebounds per game, which will give them more scoring chances. The Grizzlies have struggled defensively on the road this season, giving up more than 115 points per game, and will have a hard time slowing down the Nuggets in this game. The Grizzlies have won three straight games but they’ve lost eight of their last nine road games. They have played well offensively on the road, scoring more than 113 points per game. They usually rebound the ball well, but their rebounding dropped off in their last three games, so don’t expect them to get a lot of extra-scoring chances against the Nuggets. They’re also careless with the ball on the road, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Nuggets, who average eight steals per game at home. The Nuggets have done a good job defensively at home, holding opponents under 110 points per game, so expect them to keep Memphis’ offense in check. |
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03-03-23 | Jazz +100 v. Thunder | 103-130 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I am going to ride with the Utah Jazz on the road, as I see them covering this spread. According to dunksandthrees.com, the Jazz have the sixth-highest adjusted offensive rating and they are scoring the fifth most points per game. The Thunder won't be able to consistently slow them down, as they will slowly fall behind in this game. OKC has also lost five games in a row and they are (3-7) in their last 1o. They aren't playing great right now and they won't be able to slow down the Jazz. The Thunder could also be without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in this game, as this would be a massive loss. He controls the offense and is one of their best overall players. Without him on the court, I don't see the Thunder competing in this game. OKC is also allowing the 20th most points per game and they have only held their opponents to the 19th-lowest shooting percentage. The Jazz will find open shots consistently throughout this game and I expect them to take advantage on the road. They are the better offensive team and the Thunder is dealing with too many injuries at the moment. |
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03-03-23 | Suns -155 v. Bulls | 125-104 | Win | 100 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I will be riding with the Suns on the road, as I see them having the advantage on the offensive end of the court. Kevin Durant is starting for the Suns now, as I see this giving them a massive boost to finish this regular season. They are also getting healthy, as I don't see the Bulls being able to slow down this Phoenix offense. The Bulls are (3-7) in their last 10 games played, as they haven't been hot as of late. They will continue to struggle in this game, as Ayton, Booker, Durant, and Paul will efficiently score throughout. Chicago will also struggle to efficiently score against this Sun's defense. According to dunksandthrees.com, the Suns have the sixth-lowest adjusted defensive rating and they are holding their opponents to the fourth least amount of points per game. The Bulls have struggled on the offensive end of the court, as they won't score enough points to cover this spread. Chicago only has the 24th-highest adjusted offensive rating and they are averaging the 20th most points per game. They will struggle to score against this Suns team and they will slowly fall behind. |
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03-03-23 | Nets v. Celtics OVER 227 | 115-105 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the Over is 6-0 in Nets last 6 games following a ATS loss, 4-0 in Nets last 4 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points, and 5-1-1 in Nets last 7 road games. While the Over is 4-0 in Celtics last 4 home games, 4-1 in Celtics last 5 Friday games, and 6-2 in Celtics last 8 overall. |
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03-02-23 | Pacers -6 v. Spurs | 99-110 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s very challenging to know what a win is going to do mentally and emotionally for a San Antonio team that had lost 16 straight games. I am not ready to take the leap on the Spurs just yet, though, and the betting market doesn’t appear to be either. This spread quickly moved one point towards Indiana after the opener was released, as the Spurs have failed to cover the spread in 14 of their last 16 games. They have also failed to cover in six straight home games against Indiana. The Pacers have also started to round into playoff form, covering the number in four of their last five contests. |
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03-02-23 | Raptors v. Wizards +2 | 108-119 | Win | 100 | 4 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This should be a pretty good game as Porzinigis is expected to return for this one. That helps even out the length advantage that Toronto normally has. Toronto is just 11-19 on the road and while Poetl was a nice pickup, Washington faced him on Jan. 30 when Porzingis put up 17 points, nine rebounds and seven assists with five blocks in a 127-106 win over the Spurs. Toronto is not the Spurs, but here we are, with the playoffs coming up and they are still under .500. They should have done more at the trade deadline because the chemistry is obviously not working. Neither is their defensive effort. |
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02-27-23 | Magic +4 v. Pelicans | 101-93 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Orlando pulled off a 13-point victory a month ago and now heads to New Orleans looking to try to sweep the season series. Prior to that victory, the road team had won the previous four games and the road team is 7-3 straight up in the last 10. Another thing you should like is that the Magic are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings, including going 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings in New Orleans. While the Pelicans may win this game, 5.0 points may be a little too much for them in this contest. They have dropped three in a row and four of the last five. This team has only beaten two of their last four opponents by more than five points, so take the Magic and the points. |
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02-27-23 | Celtics v. Knicks +3 | 94-109 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Red-hot Atlantic Division rivals collide when the Boston Celtics come to the Mecca of basketball to face the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden. Boston is on a three-game run with just a single loss in its previous eight games (7-1 ATS) while New York rides a five-game winning streak and has also only tasted defeat once in its past eight outings (6-1-1 ATS). Julius Randle has been at his best of late and while the Celtics have the NBA's best record, they'll be without Jaylen Brown. As a result, they'll be playing much smaller, leaving ample opportunity for Randle to shine down low. |
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02-27-23 | Pistons v. Hornets -6.5 | 106-117 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I like the Charlotte Hornets, as they have won four games in a row and they are the better defensive team in this matchup. The Pistons are also one of the worst teams in the NBA this season, as they continue to slide in the wrong direction. They are scoring the 27th most points per game and they are allowing the second-most points. They will continue to struggle on both ends of the court, as Charlotte will slowly pulls away. The Hornets are also scoring 112.6 points per game and they looked great against the Heat the last time they were on the floor. They will find consistent open shots throughout this game and I expect them to take advantage. They will also sprint the ball up and down the court, as they will have plenty of scoring opportunities to cover this spread. Detroit only has the 28th-lowest adjusted defensive rating and they are allowing their opponents to shoot 49% from the floor. They aren't applying enough pressure, as the Hornets will make them pay. Charlotte is playing solid basketball right now. |
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02-26-23 | Rockets v. Blazers -9.5 | 114-131 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I’m not going to overthink this matchup. The Trail Blazers will get both Damian Lillard and Jerami Grant back, so I’m expecting Portland to beat Houston with ease. The Blazers have covered the spread in each of their previous two meetings with the Rockets, winning by 12 and 14 points. Damian Lillard will dominate the Rockets’ defense. He’s been unstoppable all season, tallying 31.4 points and 7.3 assists per game. Lillard has scored 38 or more points in seven of his previous 11 appearances. |
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02-26-23 | Kings -160 v. Thunder | 124-115 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Oklahoma City is playing their third game in four nights coming out of the All-Star break here after losing at Utah and Phoenix. The Thunder definitely will have their problems keeping up with Sacramento if Gilgeous-Alexander misses the game. Sacramento showed grit by rallying to take down the Clippers after trailing by 14 with under five minutes to play in regulation, then by six in both overtimes. The Kings have plenty of weapons to do damage offensively and they lead the league in scoring offense this season. Sacramento had Saturday off to rest and recover and they are deep. That proves critical as they earn a win on the road here. |
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02-26-23 | Wizards v. Bulls -180 | 82-102 | Win | 100 | 4 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I am going to roll with the Chicago Bulls at home. They are the better defensive team in this matchup, as I see them getting enough stops to cover this spread. According to dunksandthrees.com, the Bulls have the fourth-lowest adjusted defensive rating and they are holding their opponents to the ninth-lowest shooting percentage from the field. They will continue to contest shots and make it very difficult for Washington to keep up. The Bulls are also scoring 113.4 points per game and they have the sixth-highest team shooting percentage. The Wizards will struggle on the defensive end of the court and quickly fall behind in this game. They are allowing the 15th most points per game and they only have the 18th lowest adjusted defensive rating. They will continue to struggle on the road and the Bulls will continue to roll after their dominating win against the Nets. |
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02-25-23 | Spurs v. Jazz -9.5 | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Spurs’ losing streak will eventually come to an end, but with all the injury problems among Gregg Popovich’s team, I can’t back San Antonio in a tough road matchup against Utah. The Jazz are struggling to defend at a high level, but they should be scoring at will against this Spurs team. San Antonio is 1-13 ATS in its last 14 games overall. The Spurs beat the Jazz 126-122 in December, and Utah will be highly motivated to get revenge. Lauri Markkanen is poised for another strong performance, and the Jazz should make a lot of threes in this matchup. Utah is fifth in the league in triples made per 100 possessions (14.0). |
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02-25-23 | Celtics v. 76ers +1.5 | Top | 110-107 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
NBA Play of the Day Rating: 3 Units Philly is 24-6 SU and 22-10 ATS at home this season, and ranks No. 3 overall in the league in Team Scoring Defense. On the fl ip side, Boston’s Achilles Heel is its 28th ranked effort in Team Rebounds this season. In addition, the shamrocks were riding a 0-5 SUATS skein here in this series until the aforementioned win they scored late in the campaign last season. With the Celts coming off a same season revenge win at Indiana on Thursday, and staring dead ahead to same-season revenge rematches with the Knicks and the Cavs, we need to consider that the Sixers are 12-0 SUATS at home this season when seeking same-season loss revenge. |
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02-25-23 | Pelicans v. Knicks -148 | 106-128 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I am going to ride with the New York Knicks at home. They are the better defensive team in this matchup in my opinion, as I see them getting enough stops to cover the spread in this game. The Knicks are holding their opponents to the third-lowest shooting percentage and the fifth-lowest three-point shooting percentage. They will continue to contest shots consistently throughout this game, as the Pelicans won't score enough points to stay competitive. New York is also holding their opponents to the 10th least amount of points per game and they looked great in their last game against the Atlanta Hawks. They will stay hot in this one and consistently score throughout. The Pelicans are allowing the 16th most points per game and they did not impress me against the Raptors in their last game. |
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02-25-23 | Pacers v. Magic -135 | 121-108 | Loss | -135 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I am going to take the Magic at home, as I see them being the better defensive team in this matchup. They will be able to get consistent stops and slowly pull away throughout this game. According to dunksandthrees.com, the Magic have the 13th-lowest adjusted defensive rating and they are holding their opponents to the seventh-lowest shooting percentage from behind the arc. The Pacers only have the 25th-highest team shooting percentage and the 17th-highest adjusted offensive rating. They will struggle to consistently put the ball in the basket, which will allow the Magic to cover this spread. The Indiana defense has also lacked, as I see the Magic efficiently scoring in this game. The Pacers are allowing the 24th most points per game and they have the 24th lowest adjusted defensive rating. They struggled on the defensive end of the court in their last game against the Celtics and I see that trend continuing in this one. |
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02-24-23 | Hornets v. Wolves -6.5 | 121-113 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Wolves are a sharp 3-1 SUATS at home in games when coming off three-plus days of rest, while the Stingers are just 2-12 SU and 5-9 ATS in non-division games when coming off a win. However, Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in its last five games this season when coming off one loss |
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02-24-23 | Nets v. Bulls -125 | 87-131 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bulls have lost six straight games, but they’ve played better at home where they have won three of their last five games. They have played well offensively at home, scoring more than 114 points per game. They’ve taken advantage of their opportunities at the charity stripe, making over 83 percent of their free throws at home. They rebound the ball well and they were very aggressive on the offensive glass in their last three games, grabbing more than 10 offensive rebounds per game in their last three games, which will lead to more scoring chances. They also cut back on their turnovers in recent games, and won’t give the Nets a lot of easy-scoring opportunities. The Nets aren’t very good defensively and they play worse on the road, where they are giving up more than 113 points per game, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Bulls in this game. The Nets have lost four of their last six games and three straight road games. They usually play well offensively, but they struggled before the break, scoring less than 108 points per game in their last three games. They don’t rebound the ball as well as the Bulls and won’t get a lot of extra-scoring opportunities against them. They’ve also been careless with the ball on the road, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Bulls, who average more than seven steals per game at home. The Bulls aren’t great defensively, but they play better at home and held their last three opponents under 110 points per game, so don’t expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Nets in this game. |
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02-24-23 | Heat +1.5 v. Bucks | Top | 99-128 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Week Rating: 4 Units The majority of games on tonight’s NBA game are laced with teams each playing with 8 days of rest on this post All-Star Friday. And 8 is a magic number for Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra who brings a career log of 7-1 ATS when his troops are playing with eight or more days of rest during the regular season (read: post All-Star game), including 6-0 ATS when facing .400 or greater opponents. Foremost on their minds tonight, though, will be exacting revenge from a 123-115 loss here three weeks ago. And with it the stars should be lined in their favor. On the other side of the court Milwaukee is 1-6 ATS in this series when operating on three or more days of rest. Finally, Miami is 10-1 ATS when seeking revenge from a same season defeat of fewer than 20 points when coming off a double-digit defeat and facing a foe that is coming off a double-digit win. |
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02-23-23 | Grizzlies v. 76ers -160 | 105-110 | Win | 100 | 5 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The 76ers have won four straight games and six of their last seven home games. They have played well offensively at home, scoring more than 115 points per game. They’ve also done a good job at the charity stripe, making over 94 percent of their free throws in their last three games. They rebound the ball well and they’re very aggressive on the offensive glass, which will give them more scoring opportunities. They also do a good job protecting the ball and won’t give the Grizzlies a lot of easy-scoring opportunities. The Grizzlies have struggled defensively this season and they play worse on the road, giving up more than 116 points per game, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the 76ers in this game. The Grizzlies have won three of their last four games, but they’ve lost seven straight road games. They are playing well offensively, scoring more than 113 points per game on the road. But they’ve struggled at the free throw line, making less than 70 percent of their free throws in their last three games. Their rebounding has been very good and will keep them in this game, but they’re very careless with the ball on the road, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the 76ers, who average more than eight steals per game at home. The 76ers play well defensively at home and they dominated opposing offenses in recent games, giving up less than 105 points per game in their last three games, and won’t have trouble keeping Memphis’ offense in check. Go with Philadelphia to cover the spread. |
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02-23-23 | Nuggets v. Cavs -132 | 115-109 | Loss | -132 | 34 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Cavs fell 118-112 at Philadelphia while the Nuggets beat Dallas, 118-109, in the Mile High City. The loss snapped a 6-game Cleveland win skein and sets the table for this fray with Cleveland intent on evening the score from a 13-point loss they suffered in Denver with the Cavs 11-3 SU and 10-4 ATS this season in games when coming off one-loss, as well as 8-4 SUATS this campaign when looking to avenge a same-season defeat of 8 or more points. Enter the gold diggers, just 2-6 ATS overall in games when playing with seven or more days of rest, as well as 3-9 ATS away when coming off consecutive wins this season. Finally, consider that Cleveland is 26-11 SUATS at home the past two seasons against foes coming off a win, including 8-0 ATS the last eight versus .640 or greater opposition. |
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02-23-23 | Celtics -8 v. Pacers | 142-138 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Celtics fell to Indiana back in December by seven points at the TD Garden in the only matchup between these two teams. Since then, however, the Celtics' defense has improved significantly, and they are as healthy as they've been all season heading out of the All-Star break. Indiana's poor perimeter defense will not play well to a Celtics team that is sixth in the NBA in 3pt shooting. The Celtics also have a significant advantage on the wings with the Pacers not having the types of defenders to match up with Brown or Tatum. The Celtics will also enjoy a rare, significant advantage on the glass against a Pacers team that is ranked just 21st in the NBA in total rebounding. Look for Boston's defense to stifle the Pacers and the team's perimeter shooting to bury Indiana. |
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02-15-23 | Knicks +3.5 v. Hawks | 122-101 | Win | 100 | 4 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Knicks have had this game circled ever since taking it on the chops in a 15-point loss to the Hawks earlier this season. With both teams in a virtual tie for the 7th seed in the Eastern Conference playoff race, this contest is paramount for New York as far as tiebreakers go concerning playoff positioning. With it, the Knickerbockers bring a studly 24-14 SU and 28-10 ATS road record into the fray since March of last season. They are also 19-11-1 ATS of late in this series, while the Hawks tend to fl y low in games against foes seeking same-season revenge of more than 10 points, going 6-8 SU and 5-9 ATS this campaign. The numbers all point to the points, and we’ll take whatever the books are offering up tonight. |
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02-15-23 | Cavs v. 76ers -105 | 112-118 | Win | 100 | 3 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is the final game for both of these teams before the all-star break, so it's a great matchup. I expect both teams to go all out to win this one to get some momentum going into the break. These are two teams that could very well meet deep in the playoffs later this season, so they will both be looking to send a message. Both teams matchup well, as they both are among the best defensive teams in the league. I have to go with the home team here as Cleveland has struggled on the road. Also, the Sixers are the second-best free throw-shooting team in the league while Cleveland is 19th and that could decide it. Take the Sixers here to cover. |
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02-15-23 | Pistons +12.5 v. Celtics | 109-127 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I will be picking the Detroit Pistons on the road and I am going to take the points. The Boston Celtics could be without Jayson Tatum in this game and Brown and Smart are already listed as out. I just don't believe the Celtics are healthy enough to cover this spread. If they had their original starting five playing, I would hammer them. But, that isn't the case. Detroit also battled with the Raptors in their last game, as they came up just short. They will come into this game motivated and do everything they can to keep this game within the spread. These two teams also played a week back, as the Celtics won 111-99. They covered the spread, but it was extremely close. Now, they don't have three of their best players on the floor, as this will hurt Boston in this game. If Tatum ends up playing, I like the Celtics. But, he is currently listed as doubtful, so I am going to ride with the Detroit Pistons. They will show up on the road and keep this game within the spread. |
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02-15-23 | Spurs v. Hornets -4.5 | 110-120 | Win | 100 | 2 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s tough to back the Spurs even though their losing streak will eventually come to an end. The Hornets just broke out of their slump and should win this game, too. With healthy LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, and Gordon Hayward in the lineup, the Hornets have an excellent chance of exploiting the Spurs’ horrible defense. San Antonio is dead last in the league in opposing 3-point percentage (39.4%) and 29th in opposing 2-point percentage (57.2%). The Hornets are only 1-6 ATS in their last seven outings, but they’ve gone 4-0 SU and ATS in their previous four encounters with San Antonio. On the other side, the Spurs are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games overall. |
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02-14-23 | Warriors v. Clippers -8.5 | 124-134 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Warriors have been awful on the road this season and they are logging their second game of a back-to-back, not to mention their third game in four nights, in this one. Meanwhile, LA has been off since Friday, giving them three days of rest and a prime opportunity to get their trade acquisitions familiarized with the system. Hyland, Plumlee and Gordon are plugging in, adding some depth at key positions in an effort to bolster the second unit for LA. The Clippers are rested and you never know what Steve Kerr will do in relation to resting guys in a back-to-back situation. With Leonard likely to be on the floor for LA, give the edge to the hosts in this contest. |
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02-13-23 | Magic +5.5 v. Bulls | 100-91 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units At first glance Chicago finds itself in the middle of a live division avenger sandwich, coming off a same season revenge contest with Cleveland with the same on deck against Indiana. That’s never good news when you’re hosting an avenging mad-as-hell non-division foe. Enter the sizzling hot Disney dolls who, after opening the season 5-19, were 18-14 SU and 23-9 ATS at press time. Finally, Chicago is 3-12 ATS at home in the middle of a division sandwich against non-division foes seeking same-season revenge or 6 or more points, including 1-10 ATS from game 32 out. |
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02-13-23 | Nets v. Knicks -135 | 106-124 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Nets just traded away Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant, as I don't see this new team having much success this regular season. Yes, the Nets have some great numbers, but they are now missing their two biggest contributors. The Knicks have also been great on the offensive end of the court, as I see them consistently scoring throughout this game. According to dunksandthrees.com, the Knicks have the sixth-highest adjusted offensive rating and they are scoring the 15th most points per game. They will be able to attack the paint and score consistently throughout. Now, I also see the Nets struggling on the offensive end, as the Knicks are holding their opponents to the 12th least amount of points per game and the third-lowest shooting percentage from the floor. They will smother the Nets and keep them from scoring enough points to cover this spread. |
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02-13-23 | Jazz v. Pacers +1.5 | 123-117 | Loss | -112 | 6 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The early betting action has been on Indiana, which is a movement that I agree with. The Pacers might be struggling right now, but they have only had Haliburton back for a few games. He completely changes the outlook of this team, which has created value on Indiana against a bad Utah team. The Jazz have not been good on the defensive end of the court, and they are facing a strong offense on Monday. They have only covered the spread once in their last five games, and they are 4-8 against the spread in their last 12 games against Indiana. |
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02-12-23 | Grizzlies v. Celtics -165 | 109-119 | Win | 100 | 5 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Grizzlies are only (3-7) in their last 10 games played and this Celtics team is extremely tough to beat when they are at home. Boston is currently (22-7) inside TD Garden, as I see them staying hot in this one. They have the advantage on the offensive end of the court, as they have the second-highest adjusted offensive rating and they are scoring the fourth most points per game. The Grizzlies won't get consistent stops, which will allow the Celtics to slowly pull away. Boston has also shown that they can turn it on defensively, as I see the Grizzlies having a hard time scoring against Robert Williams, who protects the paint. Boston has the fifth-lowest adjusted defensive rating and they are holding their opponents to the sixth least amount of points per game. Memphis isn't a great shooting team and they won't be able to consistently score in the paint. This will really hurt them and keep them from covering this spread. |
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02-11-23 | Heat v. Magic +100 | 107-103 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Miami is desperately hoping to kickstart a strong finish to the regular season after several inconsistent months, but I am not sold on the Heat right now. Their tendency to play down to their opponents nearly cost them Friday night’s game against the worst team in the NBA, and they have now covered the spread just eight times in their 19 home games. This is not going to be an easy matchup away from home on the second leg of a back-to-back, as Orlando continues to compete. The Magic have gone 17-11 against the spread at home and are coming off a win over the top team in the Western Conference. |
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02-11-23 | 76ers v. Nets +1.5 | 101-98 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Before putting Brooklyn on your fade list remember, they are still the No. 5 seed in the Eastern Conference playoff race and they’ve performed admirably in conference play this season, winning 23 of 34 games outright, while going 7-4 ATS as underdogs. Complicating matters for the invading Sixers’ team is their skinny 2-9 SUATS mark in games without rest after facing the Knicks in games in which Philly was looking to avenge a same-season loss. With another same-season revenger on tap at home against the Rockets for the Sixers, we’re first in line here with Brooklyn looking to brush aside its spring-cleaning image today. Finally the Sixers are 23-36 SU and 21-38 ATS in the middle of a same-season revenge sandwich when facing foes with same-season revenge, including 0-8 ATS the last eight games. |
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02-10-23 | Bucks v. Clippers -130 | 119-106 | Loss | -130 | 13 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Giannis Antetokounmpo was listed as probable for Thursday’s clash against the Lakers. He’s dealing with right knee soreness, and the Bucks could decide to rest their best player on the second night of a back-to-back set. Keep tracking the injury report, and if Giannis hit the sidelines, take the Clippers to cover. With both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George healthy, the Clippers have enough firepower to compete against the in-form Bucks, who’ll eventually have to slow down a bit. Just a week ago, Milwaukee barely outlasted LA 106-105 as a 4.5-point home fave, and the Clippers blew a huge 21-point lead. |
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02-10-23 | Mavs v. Kings -125 | 122-114 | Loss | -125 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Luka Doncic’s status is key, and if he remains on the sidelines, I’m going with the Kings to cover. Both Dallas and Sacramento struggle to defend at a high level, especially in the paint, and the Kings look like a more balanced offensive unit than the Mavericks, who lean on 3-point shooting too much. I’m expecting Sacramento to attack the rim all night long and torture the Mavs in the paint. The Kings are 6-2 ATS in their last eight encounters with the Mavericks, though they haven’t met in 2022-23. Sacramento has only lost two of its previous 12 contests against the Western Conference. |
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02-10-23 | Wolves v. Grizzlies -6.5 | 107-128 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units When it comes to a ‘game set-up’ they don’t get much better than tonight’s clash between the Grizzlies and the Timberwolves. For openers, Memphis returns home with a case of double same-season loss revenge on its mind, while catching the Wolves off a same season revenger with yet another one on deck. The Grizzlies are 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS at home with a win percentage of .589 or better when seeking same-season double revenge, while the Timberwolves enter the den with a 9-19 SUATS record in this series, including 2-11 SU and 3-10 ATS away. |
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02-10-23 | Hornets v. Celtics -10 | 116-127 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Even with a slightly depleted roster, including the loss of all-star Brown, the Celtics have a deeper and more talented team than the Hornets. Charlotte has struggled offensively this season and have lost five straight games, allowing an average of nearly 119 points per game. Boston will likely have both Williams and Horford back which will give the team a decided advantage on the glass against a Hornets team that just dealt away their leading rebounder. The Celtics are 3-0 against Charlotte this season and have defeated the Hornets by an average of 21 points per game. Look for that to continue in this spot. |
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02-09-23 | Bucks -8 v. Lakers | 115-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I’ve already said this before Milwaukee’s comfortable victory at Portland – I’m not going to stand in front of the red-hot Bucks. Milwaukee’s defense has been outstanding over the last few weeks, Giannis Antetokounmpo has dominated his opponents, while Khris Middleton is slowly but surely building up his form following an injury. Antetokounmpo has averaged 37.5 points, 14.5 rebounds, and 5.4 assists during the Bucks’ winning streak. The Lakers hope Anthony Davis will be able to slow Giannis down, but I’m still relying on Milwaukee’s defense to make the difference. The Bucks have allowed 110 or fewer points in four of their last seven outings, whereas the Lakers have yielded 121 or more in five of their previous six games overall. Los Angeles outlasted Milwaukee 133-129 in their first meeting of the season, but it was way back on December 2. |
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02-09-23 | Nuggets -6 v. Magic | 104-115 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Denver presents a nightmarish matchup for most teams but definitely the Orlando Magic. Orlando is banged up down low and now goes against the best big man in the NBA and one that can beat you inside and outside. While Orlando has defended the 3-ball well this season, they haven't run into a big that can pass as deftly as Jokic can out of the post. Jokic's passing is the primary reason Denver is ranked first in the NBA in 3pt shooting; he demands double teams and Denver spaces the floor well. The Nuggets had a hiccup against Minnesota two games ago but that won't happen against this Orlando team that lacks the fire power to run away from the Nuggets. Denver will run through Jokic and get open looks and take the fight out of the Magic in this one. |
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02-08-23 | 76ers v. Celtics -4 | 99-106 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Philadelphia 76ers are only 2-2 in their last four games after losing games to the Magic and Knicks within the last week. The Boston Celtics will be ready for this game as they look to build on their first-place lead against a 76ers squad that is only three games behind them. Boston has won three out of their last four games. 76ers are giving up an increase in points. They have squandered 119 or more points in five out of their last seven clashes. This is key as Boston is second in the NBA in adjusted offensive efficiency, averaging 115.3 points per 100 possessions compared to 113.8 per 100 by Philly. Boston won the first meeting by nine points and I expect another convincing win. Also, Joel Embiid is questionable with a foot injury. |
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02-08-23 | Pacers +7 v. Heat | 111-116 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Neither team has been a good betting option over the past few weeks, but I feel much better about Indiana being undervalued coming into this game. The Pacers finally have a chance to be competitive again after getting their best player back on the court. He scored a career-high 43 points against Miami in December, and he has had time to rest coming into this matchup. The Pacers have covered the spread in eight of their last 12 games in Miami, and the Heat are dealing with multiple key injuries right now. I expect this game to be a toss-up down the stretch, which provides plenty of value on Indiana as a 7-point underdog. |
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02-08-23 | Spurs +11 v. Raptors | Top | 98-112 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 48 m | Show |
NBA Play of the Day Rating: 3 Units Greg Popovich takes on a Toronto team that handed him the WORST LOSS of his career in a 143-100 ass whooping in San Antonio on November 2 earlier this season. If that’s not enough of a hair-raising beat down, then it doesn’t exist in Pops’ world. Making matters even worse for the Raptors is that they enter this game off a double-revenge affair of their own at Memphis with another payback on deck here against Utah on Friday. With the Spurs 11-9 SU and 12-8 ATS overall in this series, including 4-1 ATS when Toronto is coming off two days of rest. Finally playing on San Antonio head coach Greg Popovich from Game 55 out when he is seeking revenge from a same-season loss of more than 25 points when the Spurs own a sub .690 win percentage 11-0 since 1998. |
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02-07-23 | Bulls +9.5 v. Grizzlies | 89-104 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Grizzlies have continued to slide in the wrong direction and they look like a completely different team without Morant or Adams on the floor. Morant is currently listed as questionable, but the Bulls are good enough defensively to keep this game within the spread. According to dunksandthrees.com, the Bulls have the 11th lowest adjusted defensive rating and they are (6-4) in their last 10 and they've won two straight. They are playing good basketball right now and I just can't say that about the Grizzlies. They are currently (2-8) in their last 10 games played and they've lost three in a row. They've struggled on the offensive end of the court and I see that trend continuing in this one. The Bulls are also a better overall shooting team, as I see them being able to maneuver around this Memphis defense. They are scoring the 15th most points per game and they have the fifth-highest team shooting percentage. They will take advantage of their open looks and keep this game close. |
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02-07-23 | Suns -5.5 v. Nets | 116-112 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This could be a very weird game. As you know, the trade deadliner is this week and the Nets have already seen their roster rocked with the trade of Kyrie Irving to Dallas. Now, we don't know if the haul they got back, Dinwiddie and Finney-Smith, will even be suited up for this game -- and even if they are, they probably won't play much or be effective given that they are joining a new team and had to travel. Plus, the Nets just played a game Monday night at home against the Clippers, so they could not only be short handed, but the players they have on the court will be running on fumes. This all points to a Phoenix win. Take the Suns here to cover. |
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02-07-23 | Knicks v. Magic +1.5 | 102-98 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The New York Knicks have not been strong on the road where they have dropped three out of their last four games including losses to the Hawks and Raptors. The Magic have been tough to beat on their home floor. They have won three of their last four home clashes highlighted by a win against the Celtics. Orlando is flourishing in the offensive end. They have collected 119 or more points in three out of their last four games including 119 points against the 76ers in that span. Also, the Knicks like to attempt many threes, averaging 34.9 three-point attempts per game and it will be a challenge to have success when considering the Magic rank 6th in the NBA in three-point defense. |
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02-06-23 | Mavs v. Jazz -8.5 | 124-111 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mavericks could possibly be without Luka Doncic in this game, as I simply don't trust them when he isn't on the floor. He does everything for them on the offensive end of the court. Dallas has also struggled to consistently score, as they are only averaging the 24th most points per game. The Jazz will be able to get consistent stops throughout this one and slowly pull away. Dallas hasn't impressed me on the defensive end of the court either. They are surrendering the 24th-highest shooting percentage from the field, as the Jazz will find open looks throughout this game and I expect them to take advantage. Utah is currently scoring the fourth most points per game and they have the fourth-highest adjusted offensive rating. They will efficiently score throughout this game and slowly pull away. Dallas isn't the same team without Doncic and I like this Jazz offense. |
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02-06-23 | Clippers v. Nets +7.5 | 124-116 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Los Angeles Clippers are at the end of a difficult five-game road trek. They lost to the Bucks on Thursday and needed overtime to beat the Knicks on Saturday. The Nets are winning games, logging the victory in three of their last four games. Durant and Simmons did not play in those games. Furthermore, the Nets are the better offensive squad here. They are averaging 114.2 points per 100 possessions compared to only 110.5 points from the Clippers while defensively they are even. The Clippers have only averaged 111 points in their last four games and that included an overtime game. The Nets were able to score 125 points without Durant, Simmons, and Irving on Saturday and I expect a victory in this one. |
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02-06-23 | Cavs v. Wizards +2.5 | 114-91 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cavs enter off a revenge affair of their own last night at Indiana and they stand 3-9 ATS in post-Pacer performances. Consider that Cleveland is 1-11-1 ATS as a road favorite without rest. |
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02-06-23 | Celtics -9.5 v. Pistons | 111-99 | Win | 100 | 1 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Celtics are already 2-0 against the Pistons this season with an average margin of victory of 12.5 points. Boston's high-powered offense should get right back on track against the Pistons' porous defense that is near the bottom of almost all defensive categories. In addition, the Celtics' defense has made a major uptick since the return of Williams. They should have their way against a Detroit offense that has struggled to put up points at times this season and has limited weapons. The Celtics won't overlook this game as the Bucks and Sixers close in on the top of the Eastern Conference and will come in rested with a full roster. |
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02-05-23 | 76ers v. Knicks +4.5 | Top | 97-108 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
NBA Play of the Day Rating: 3 Units Knicks look to even the score from a 119-112 Christmas Day home defeat to Philly. With it they bring along a strong 10-5-1 ATS record in games with a .444 or greater mark as a division home dog with revenge, including 5-1-1 ATS when coming off a home game. They also pile on with a 12-8 SUATS mark this season with same-season loss revenge of 7-plus points. The 76ers are coming off a same-season revenge contest with the Spurs, (3-7 ATS away after facing San Antonio) with another same season revenge affair up next against Miami (3-9-1 ATS before Miami, including 0-3 ATS away). Finally, consider that the Knicks are 15-8 SU and 14-7-1 ATS series with same-season loss revenge if .428 or greater, including 7-1 ATS as a dog. |
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02-05-23 | Cavs v. Pacers +5 | 122-103 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pacers snapped a four-game losing streak with a 107-104 win over the Sacramento Kings on Friday. Buddy Hield made five 3-pointers and scored 21 points, Aaron Nesmith added 17 points, and Myles Turner had 14 points and 13 rebounds. Indiana coach Rick Carlisle was encouraged by his team's defensive effort after causing 19 turnovers and holding Sacramento to 43.0 percent shooting. Indiana split its first two games against Cleveland this season, including a 135-126 victory on Dec. 29. Tyrese Haliburton and Hield combined for 11 3-pointers and 54 points in the win. The Pacers' frontcourt received a boost earlier this week with the season debut of center Daniel Theis, who was out while recovering from right knee surgery. Consider that the Cavaliers are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS win. |