MNF Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

The last meeting between these two was pinball. Los Angeles won 44-42 in a game with 86 points, 902 yards, 12 touchdowns, and zero turnovers. Allen became the first player in NFL history to throw three touchdown passes and rush for three scores in the same game. Buffalo became the first team ever to score six touchdowns, commit no turnovers, and lose. The Rams are sitting at .500 and simply not that imposing – see the Broncos and 49ers. Consider that Josh Allen is 9-3 straight up and 10-2 against the spread in his career against undefeated opponents, including 3-0 against the number as a dog.

NFL International Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last five games as a road underdog, 6-1 ATS in its last seven as a dog of any kind and 7-1 ATS in its last eight games on artificial turf. In this transatlantic showdown, the public has stampeded toward Jacksonville, sending the number across every meaningful landmark from 3 through 7. That leaves us with an inflated price on the favorite and a Philadelphia team carrying the superior underdog profile. Additionally,  Jacksonville is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine games against the NFC East. Finally, Eagles QB Jalen Hurts is 14-2 SU / ATS against opponents coming off back-to-back SU/ATS wins, including 5-0 SU/ATS as a dog.

Big-10 Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Chesney has sung for his supper quite successfully, going 19-4 SU and 14-8 ATS when his team has the better record, and 6-2 SU/6-1 ATS in games when his team is undefeated. The Bruins have been whacked to the tune of nearly 86 yards per game. We balance that concern with how the UCLA defense is whacking offenses, with a plus-eight turnover margin after just four games. It’s the best game not named Alabama-Georgia this weekend. Finally, Chesney is 3-0 ATS in his career as the underdog.

Inter-Conference Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

The 3-0 Niners are a late, back-door field goal by the Cardinals with 39 seconds remaining, and a “triple dipper” (3-0 SU, ATS, and ITS) to open the season. With Frisco ranked # 6 and # 5 in overall offense and defense, and the Broncos #22 and #28 respectively, we look at the fact that undefeated NFL teams in Game Four of the season, playing their third consecutive home game, are 24-4 SU and 18-9-1 ATS, including 9-1 SU/ATS versus foes with a winning record.

NFL Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Sean McVay has been sucker punched and knocked out in each of his four head-to-heads with the Eagles – he is 0-4 SU/ATS against Nick Sirianni. It all goes to the Philly’s 9-1 ATS mark in the last ten games in this series, and it’s a 3-0 ATS record in games coming off a Monday night. Until the Rams learn to take down the Eagles, we’ll take this home dog Additionally, the Rams are 3-12 SU / 2-13 against NFC East opponents coming off a loss in which they scored fewer than 17 points.

SEC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

The Tigers have SEC Defensive Lineman of the Week Daeden Hopkins to lean on; he already has eight sacks and 21 pressures. Tigers’ coach Eli Drinkwitz is 10-4 ATS as a home dog, including 6-0 ATS as a home dog of six or fewer points. Florida is 0-7 ATS when facing an opponent seeking revenge, and finally, Mizzou is 9-0 ATS as a home dog of five or fewer when playing for vengeance.

ACC Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Virginia Tech is a sad 3-14 ATS in this series, including 1-5 SU / 0-6 ATS when the Gobblers walk onto the field with an .850 or greater win percentage. Target practice continues with Narduzzi’s sparkling 7-1 ATS road record versus undefeated teams also coming into play. Consider that Pitt is 13-0 ATS as a road dog with revenge against an opponent coming off a win.

AFC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

QB Justin Herbert is 13-4 SU and 12-5 ATS his NFL career when coming off back-to-back losses, including 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS before Game Nine of the season. Yes. Josh Allen and the Bills are flying high but remember the age-old NFL adage: What goes up must come down. It’s what’s happened to the Bills in their las eight games coming off a double-digit win as they’ve gone 1-7 ATS in this spot. Finally, Bolts’ boss Jim Harbaugh who is 15-6 SU and 14-5-2 ATS away in his NFL career when seeking revenge, including 5-0 SUATS when his troops sport a .500 or fewer win percentage.

CFB Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Two teams trying to return to past glories the best way they know how, WVU chewing up turf while the Cowboys use Morris’ version of the Air Raid Offense behind a true wheeler dealer in Mestemaker. It should be one of the weekend’s best games, in a classic CFB environment…. but strangely the host is 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings in this series.  Additionally, Oklahoma State is 12-0 ATS as a dog of 7 points or fewer against teams coming off a win.

MNF Game of the Month

Rating: 4 Units

Los Angeles becomes the only team on the Week Two NFL card to lose its opening-week game outright as a favorite, facing an opponent in the Giants who won outright as an underdog. Teams in this Game Two role are 12-7 SU and 13-6 ATS in a bounce-back role, including 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS against foes coming off a win of 7 or more points since 2012. Los Angeles owns a +4 day rest advantage against a New York squad coming off a Sunday night contest. 79 NFL games have featured a team with exactly a 4-day rest advantage. Those teams are 45-34 SU, 43-24-2 ATS. The are Giants 2-7 ATS against the NFC West, while the Rams are 4-1-1 ATS off a division loss. Finally, Rams’ head coach Sean McVay is 17-9 SU and 17-8-1 ATS coming off an outright loss as a favorite, including 4-0 SU/ATS against foes coming off an outright win as an underdog. 

AFC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Payton is ANGRY, and the cocky Jags have the look of a team that’s unwittingly marching into an ambush. We hope the Broncos don’t wear those stupid white helmets again that made them look like FedEx dressed them. That would make Payton angry… and we… you know. The Broncos are 5-1 ATS after division road games, and 10-2 ATS after the Chiefs. The Jaguars are 1-7 ATS away vs. non-division foes seeking revenge.

Pigskin Profit Play

Rating: 4 Units

The Bruins handled the Aztecs 28-10 last week, but SDSU held the Bruins off the scoreboard in the first half before UCLA pulled away with 21 4th quarter points. JMU scored a record-tying 87 points against helpless Wagner last week, equaling the mark South Alabama reached in 2024 against Northwestern State. The Dukes are also packing this stat along with their luggage; teams coming off wins of 77 or more points are 4-0 SU/ATS since 2018. 

CFB Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Last time Maryland’s Mike Locksley and James Franklin coached against each other, Penn State clobbered Maryland 44-7, and the post-game handshake got, shall we say, a bit testy. Franklin is facing a test he fails like a 16-year-old’s first driving exam…beating a top team. Franklin is 3-11-2 ATS in his career against undefeated opponents, including 0-4-1 ATS against a team coming off a SUATS win.

NFL Gold Play

Rating: 4 Units

Cincinnati ranked second in red-zone touchdown percentage at 66.7%, while Tampa Bay finished dead last in red-zone defense at 69.8%. Colliding factors find Cincinnati seeking its fourth straight series victory while Tampa Bay hunts its sixth consecutive Opening Day win. The Jungle finally awakens behind the fact that Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS versus the NFC South and 10-1 ATS as a non-division favorite of five or fewer points, while Tampa Bay is 0-5 ATS versus the AFC North. 

NFL Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

The Steelers have captured five consecutive meetings, including an 18-10 victory in the 2024 season opener, and the Falcons have never won in Pittsburgh. Their lone visit without a loss came in 2002, when they tied 34-34 in overtime. Pittsburgh is 16-2-1 in this series, including five straight wins, while Atlanta enters with its sixth different Week 1 starting quarterback in six years. New coaches. Reunited quarterbacks. Same old series. Not to mention the Steelers are 10-0 vs. the NFC South. The Falcons are 1-12 vs the AFC North.

CFB Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

The Ohio State coach Day is 25-1 during the month, 20-1 in regular-season nonconference games and 25-1 in the Buckeyes’ last 26 games as the nation’s No. 1 team. His troops have also averaged 42.2 points across their last 31 games against non-Big Ten opponents. Texas owns the revenge motive, the home crowd and an offense capable of turning Saturday night into a track meet. Ohio State counters with the superior recent series history, the nation’s most dangerous receiver and a defense that has allowed the Longhorns only 21 combined points in the last two meetings. Sure, everything is bigger in Texas, including the stakes. But until the Longhorns finally crack the Buckeye code, revenge remains little more than a promise waiting to be delivered. When push comes to shove, consider that Ohio State has never lost in Austin – and Texas has yet to score more than 14 points against the Buckeyes in the last 17 years.

NCAAF Gold Play

Rating: 4 Units

Head coach Eliah Drinkwitz has established himself as one of CFB’s rising young head coaches, but he is only 5-10 ATS in games when favored and coming off a win of 25-plus points, as well as 0-3 ATS in his career in road games off a win by the same margin. Meanwhile, the Jayhawks rank No. 39 overall in Returning Production Rankings, including No. 10 on defense, a huge 97-place advantage over Mizzou on that side of the ball. Remember, too, that KU is a conference home dog playing with a costly revenge chip on its shoulder from an 11-point loss in Columbia that contributed to a 5-7 bowl-costing season. Head Jayhawk Lance Leipold is 5-0 outright in season openers, averaging a win margin of more than 29 points per game, which segues nicely into the fact that Leipold is 37-16-1 ATS at home in his FBS head coaching career, including 15-3 ATS when coming off a win of 8-plus points.

CFB Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Wisconsin has recently amassed some bad numbers in three specific categories: 0-4 ATS in Game One, 1-7 ATS at neutral sites, and 3-10 ATS versus non-conference opposition. Notre Dame is 7-1 ATS of late versus the Big Ten, and 5-1 ATS playing at a neutral site. Expect the best from the Irish as they make a big statement to the CFP committee, and start lowering the curtain on Fickell’s coaching career at Madison. Finally, Irish head coach Marcus Freeman is 43-11 SU / 35-18 ATS in all games, including 6-0 SU / 5-1 ATS as a favorite in Big Ten contests, averaging 43 points per game.

Upset Special

Rating: 4 Units

Clemson is 8-2 ATS mark when seeking revenge, and Louisiana State is 1-5 ATS in lined Game Ones. The upstate SC Tigers also ring the register when taking points, as evidenced by their 8-2 ATS success as a dog of 6 or more points. In truth, though, we want to see Kiffin break into a nervous sweat before this one ends. Finally, 14 seasons ago, when Clemson failed to crack the AP Preseason Top 25, Dabo Swinney’s team started the season 8-0 and climbed to No. 5, en route to its first ACC championship since 1991.

CFB Game of the Year

Rating: 10 Units

Interestingly, last year’s CFP Championship Game ‘Tale of the Tape’ showed a 16-3-1 edge in the stats favoring Ohio State over Notre Dame, which won 34-23. This year’s tally shows a 15-4-1 edge in Indiana’s favor.  Indiana has dominated fellow bowl teams this season, going 9-0 SU and 6-3 ATS, and 7-2 ITS by an average net stat win of 145.11 yards per game – including a 4-0 SUATS record versus CFP squads. Leading the charge is IU head coach Curt Cignetti – as reliable as it gets – going 8-0 SU / 12-5 ATS  vs. less than .900 win percentage foes, 19-1 SU / 16-4 ATS as a single-digit favorite and 39-1 SU / 28-7 ATS when allowing 24 or fewer points. Indiana hasn’t allowed more than 24 points in a game all season, and Cignetti boasts a 36-3 SU and 26-10 ATS mark in games when his team is undefeated. The final point: Since the CFP started in 2015, teams scoring over 32 points in the championship game are an undefeated 9-0 SUATS, winning by an average of 22 points per game. 

AFC Playoff Game of the Month

Rating: 8 Units

This marks the first time since 2019 that Buffalo will participate in the postseason Wild Card Round, when they lost at Jacksonville, 10-3. Their effort this season is reflected not only in the standings but also in their performance. With that, behind Superman QB Josh Allen, the Bills bring a Top 10-ranked offense and defense into this game (one of only three teams to do so – the Pats and the Seahawks are the others), but their rush defense has more holes than a moth-eaten cape, which is concerning. That’s because the Bills’ rush defense allowed opponents to rush for 200+ yards in 4 games and 160+ yards in 7 games overall. The Jaguars rushed for 100 or more yards in 9 games this season, going 8-1 in those games. A quick check of our QB League shows Allen at 1-4 SUATS in the playoffs against foes with a .750 or greater winning percentage. Meanwhile, the Jaguars enter today’s game as the hottest team in the league, currently riding an 8-0 SUATS win streak. They are 7-1 SUATS at home under first-year head coach Liam Cohen. And they don’t seem to be intimidated today, either, as they bring a recent 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS record as underdogs in this series. Add in the dramatic improvement of QB Trevor Lawrence this season, and we’re jacked for the Jaguars today.

Bowl Game of the Year

Rating: 10 Units

I’ll stick with Indiana, but this is sure to be an interesting matchup regardless. The Hoosiers dispatched a good Alabama team in the Rose Bowl thanks to a strong second half. Indiana ended up with 407 total yards, 215 pass yards, 6.2 yards per play, 22 first downs, a nice 9-of-14 on third-down tries, one penalty and zero turnovers. On defense Indiana held the Tide to just 193 yards, 23 rush yards, 11 first downs and 3-of-11 on third-down tries. As for Oregon, they notched 309 yards against Texas Tech, posting 15 first downs and 4-of-19 on third-down tries. The defense carried the day though, giving up just 10 first downs and 6-of-16 on third downs alongside four takeaways. These teams last saw each other back on October 11 in a 30-20 victory for the Hoosiers at Autzen Stadium. Indiana’s defense had two interceptions while allowing just 267 yards, 14 first downs and 3-of-14 on third-down conversion attempts. If the Hoosiers can replicate that—and if the offense can get a little better on third downs themselves (5-of-14)—I think Indiana will be in good shape down the stretch.

NFC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

If it weren’t for Chicago leading the league in net turnover margin, they’d probably be on the outside looking in at the NFC Playoff picture. The Lions are 6-0 ATS when coming off a SU road favorite loss, while the Windy City wonders are 2-10 ATS against foes coming off a SU road favorite loss. And for the final nail in the coffin, consider that Chicago is 0-6 SUATS against opponents coming off a Thursday game this decade.

Divisional Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Seahawks’ QB Sam Darnold has won 13+ games each of the last two seasons – and he did it with two different teams, setting an NFL record. But the bottom line is when push comes to shove, we’ll back the quarterback we see winning league MVP, Matthew Stafford, who ranks No. 1 in Passing TDs (42), No. 2 in Passer Rating (108.8), and No. 2 in overall Passing Yards (4,448). With the Seahawks now just 3-10 ATS after allowing 10 or fewer points in their last game, we then look at the fact that 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is 11-4 ATS as either a favorite or a dog of 4 or fewer points versus division foes that own a better record, including 6-0 ATS against a foe coming off a win of 3 or more points.

Bowl Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

The Hurricanes picked up their biggest win in two decades by holding off Texas A&M on the road, and this battle features two top 10 defenses in top form. The Canes are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 non-ACC games but 3-13 SUATS in their previous 16 bowls, although their motivation in some of those games can definitely be questioned. The Buckeyes are 8-1 ATS as a bowler versus a team off back-to-back SUATS wins. Defending champs off a loss are 7-1 SUATS in the post-season versus a team coming off a W. The Buckeyes are 14-1 ATS against teams that beat opponents by double-digits. This is the third straight Cotton Bowl for OSU, and there is an UGLY BETTY stat to throw a little shade at Brutus-teams in the same bowl game, coming off a loss, are 18-33 ATS, including 0-5 ATS vs. a team coming off two straight SUATS wins and 1-10 ATS as a favorite of five or more. However, CFP teams coming off a loss are 8-2 ATS all time, including 6-0 SUATS if they surrender fewer than 18 PPG, with every win by double-digits and by an average margin of 26 PPG.

Divisional Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The Pittsburgh Steelers, are 42-12-1 outright in this series since the Browns returned to the league as an expansion team in 1999. They are also 33-6-1 SU and 25-15 ATS when Cleveland has a losing record. Finally, Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin is 28-5-1 ATS on the road in division games his teams win outright, including an 11-0-1 ATS streak over the last 12 games.

Bowl Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

The Mean Green had been a scoring machine all season before being held to just 21 points by the Green Wave, but the fact is, North Texas still owns the No. 1 overall-ranked offense in the country. You know the saying, “Something’s gotta give,” and that’s the case here with the Aztecs’ No. 7 overall-ranked defense taking center stage. UNT, as .500 bowl chalk of 7 or more points who allow 30+ PPG are 2-8 ATS – but the public pushed the line the wrong way, taking NT from -6 to -3. As for previous bowl performances, American bowlers are 2-5 SUATS against Mountain West reps. Then there’s second-year Fresno head coach Sean Lewis and his 11-7 ATS dog log off a loss, including 4-0 ATS if an underdog of 5 or fewer points. And don’t forget that San Diego State owns 100 yards the better defense in this contest. Finally, bowl favorites who allow more than 24 PPG, off a conference championship loss, are 3-13-1 ATS, including 0-5-1 ATS if the loss was as a favorite. 

AFC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

John Harbaugh’s troops will be looking to avenge a 20-point playoff loss as 2.5-point favorites at Houston last season, a game in which QB Justin Herbert threw four interceptions. With it, Herbert’s career record against AFC South teams falls to 6-7 SU and 4-8-1 ATS (favored in every game). Meanwhile, Houston QB C.J. Stroud enters with a solid 5-1 ATS mark as an underdog versus foes coming off back-to-back SUATS wins. Notably, the Bolts have recently struggled against the AFC South, finishing just 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS over the past three seasons, including 0-4 ATS this campaign. They are also only 3-12 SU and 4-11 ATS on Saturdays, including 0-7 SUATS as a pick or favorite of 4 or fewer points. Finally, to close it out, playing against any NFL favorite coming off three consecutive outright wins, each as a dog, and the last by more than 12 points ATS, if the O/U total in the game is 37 or more points is 10-1 ATS.

Bowl Game Play of the Day

Rating: 3 Units

 ECU is the bowl’s defending champion, but the underdog in this bowl is 1-4-1 ATS in the last six, and the American Conference is 3-9 ATS versus the ACC. A strange but true stat that could have come from the mind of Rod Serling: AAC teams that score 35 or more coming off a win are 0-5 ATS in bowl games. There may be no better match of a city and a university than Pat Narduzzi at Pitt; his teams are 19-6 SU / 17-8 ATS after an ATS loss. ECU is only 2-5 ITS (In the Stats) against fellow bowlers. “Nails” Narduzzi is also 6-1 ATS coming off a loss of 30 plus points and a sharp 13-6-1 ATS as the favorite against a team coming off a win. Consider that Pitt is 11-2 SUATS as a favorite under Narduzzi when they allow an average of less than 100 rushing yards per game.

NFL Game of the Week

Rating; 5 Units

Lions’ QB Jared Goff is 14-3 ATS in his career after a loss when facing a team coming off a SUATS win, and the men from Detroit are 4-0 ATS against opponents coming off a Monday night home game. They’re also 15-0 SU and 14-1 ATS when coming off their last 15 losses. And don’t worry about Aaron Rodgers’ connection to the Lions from his days with the Packers, where he is currently riding a 0-3 SUATS losing streak and is 0-2 SUATS all time as a dog.  Finally, Detroit HC responds with aplomb when his current team is coming off a loss and facing a foe coming off a win, going 11-0-1 ATS. 

AFC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The Broncos bring an 11-game win streak into this contest – nine of them one score victories – while the visiting Jaguars enter rising on a 5-game win streak, knowing NFL underdogs in this role are 15-5 ATS against foes coming off a win. Consider that NFL teams on an 11-game win streak (Broncos) are 5-9 SU and 1-12-1 ATS since 1990 when facing a non-division foe, including 0-7-1 ATS during the regular season... Additionally, teams are 1-12 ATS after facing the Jets this season, but 3-2 outright with a win percentage of .666 or more (Jags)

CFB Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

OU is 10-17-1 ATS in bowl games versus teams batting .750 or better, and the late Warren Zevon’s favorite college football coach, Brent “Excitable Boy” Venables, is 4-10-1 ATS off a win versus an opponent coming off a loss. Teams in the CFP coming off a SUATS loss are 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS. Finally, Alabama is 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in bowl games coming off a SUATS loss versus an opponent coming off a win when the Tide isn’t favored by seven or more points.

AFC East Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The New England Patriots are 9-2 ATS in games when both teams arrive off a win, and 5-0 ATS in their last five games in this series. The Bills hold the revenge card from a 23-20 home loss to the Pats as 8-point favorites the first week of October, but that card has not served them well in this series, as they are just 21-35-2 ATS when seeking revenge against the Patriots, including a 0-14-1 ATS record (yes, you read that right) when coming off a win by 5-12 points. Consider that playing against any NFL .666 or greater road pick or favorite from Game Nine out who allows 4.6 or more Yards Per Rush if they’re facing a .666 > opponent 11-1-1.

AFC West Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Mahomes, he’s shown a propensity for performing well in games in which the Chiefs sport a losing record, bringing a 7-2 SUATS mark into this contest. The same applies to head coach Andy Reid as he is 41-25 ATS in his NFL career when carrying the label of loser, including a mirror-like 7-2 SUATS record at home when coming off consecutive losses. Put that next to the fact that Kansas City is 12-0 SU and 11-1 ATS when coming off a home loss, including 8-0 SU and ATS when favored in its last game. The Chargers come in on a short week and QB Justin Herbert is playing with a bad hand, is 3-7 outright against Kansas City, including 1-4 when the Bolts are coming off a win. Additionally, the Chargers bring little spark as a road dog in division games after a win, facing an avenging opponent (they beat the Chiefs in Brazil to open the season). They are just 2-14 SU and 4-12 ATS in these affairs, including 0-11 SUATS as a dog of fewer than 6 points. And finally, Patrick Mahomes is 17-3 SU and 13-7 ATS in his NFL career when coming off a QB Rating of less than 70 in his previous starts, including 4-0 SUATS at home versus division foes, with an average win margin of 23 PPG

Big-10 Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Defending national champions are 3-3 SU and 1-5 ATS when facing a team with a .916 or better record in a conference title game. The Bucks are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 conference games, 13-2 ATS coming off a road win, and are 9-1 ATS this season, while the Hoosier Daddies are 6-5 ATS. Ohio State is 10-4-1 ATS off a B1G win of four or more, and this was a BIG win, ending the four-year torture that was the Michigan series. This matchup is the highlight of the sports weekend. Consider that  playing on any underdog of 4 or more points from Game Ten out if both teams are undefeated and the dog allows 14.5 or fewer PPG is 10-1 ATS.

TNF Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Clearly, the Cowboys are playing their best football of the season and remain in the NFC playoff picture (currently the No. 9 seed). Our concern for Dallas tonight, though, is that the Lions are 3-0 SUATS at home by an average win margin of more than 15 PPG when coming off consecutive home games against foes coming off an upset win as a dog. They are also 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS facing sub-.666 opponents when coming off a game against Green Bay. The Lions crushed Dallas 47-9 as 3.5-point road favorites last year, and they’re laying the same number here after a humiliating loss. Consider that the Lions HC is 8-1 SUATS in his career after a setback as a favorite, including 8-0 SUATS with a .333 or greater record

AFC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Pittsburgh seeks revenge after their last meeting in the Wild Card Round, a 31-17 loss at Buffalo. The Bills are 1-3 ATS after playing on Thursday, while the Steelers are 19-8-5 ATS as home underdogs under Mike Tomlin. He is also 5-0-4 ATS as a home dog against foes coming off a loss. Consider as well, that playing against any NFL road favorite from Game Seven out if they allow 5.0 or more rushing yards on defense, and they are facing an opponent that won 10 or more game last season is 10-0 ATS.

AFC Divisional Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

It’s been a year from heaven for the lucky horseshoes this season, currently the No. 3 seed in the AFC Playoff Picture despite coughing up season-high yardage to seven foes. With that, we look at the fact that Houston is 13-3 ATS as a division dog of more than 2 points, including 5-0 ATS with a win percentage of .250 or more. 

SEC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

UF won this one by 20 last year, so FSU goes into revenge mode with a 5-1 ATS mark in such games since 2021. The Gators are 0-4 ATS when they enter this game with a losing record, and, for some odd reason, are 0-5 ATS in their last home game versus a team with a sub-.500 mark. Consider that FSU is 10-1 straight up in this long rivalry when they own the better record, including 5-0 ATS when swamped. Finally, teams coming into the final game of the college football season and one game under .500 and need a win to even up their win-loss percentage and become bowl-eligible and are coming off a conference loss are 20-7-1 ATS. And if they didn’t lose to the spread by 17 points or more, they zoom to 16-2 ATS.

SEC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Defensively, the Aggies rank top-5 nationally in scoring defense (15.2 PPG allowed) and are second in sacks (3.8 per game) and tackles for loss (8.2 per game). The Horns boast a top-10 offense (36.8 PPG). The bad news for the Aggies is a 1-10 ATS record in Game Twelves of the season, which contrasts sharply with the Hook ‘Em’s 5-0 ATS mark in Game Twelves. To add to the excitement, Texas is 12-3 ATS when coming off a double-digit win against undefeated teams. Finally, AP Preseason No. 1 teams are 7-4 SU and ATS versus undefeated foes, including a flawless 4-0 SU and ATS as an underdog of 3 points or fewer. 

AFC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

The upstart Colts enter as the No. 3 seed in the current AFC Playoff Picture, but they are just 1-5 ATS before hosting a division opponent (the Texans will be in Indianapolis next Sunday). We’re going back to the well with the Chiefs once again this week, especially knowing that NFL teams who are 5-5 or worse and favored versus an opponent with an .800 or greater win percentage are 14-0 SU and 12-0-2 ATS since 1990.

NFC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Lions’ QB Jared Goff had a disastrous game, continually missing open receivers, finishing 14-for 37. It was so bad that Bettorday reported no quarterback has completed fewer than 14 passes on 37-plus attempts since 1998. Then there are the Giants, 1-7 ATS in the first of back-to-back road games, and 1-7 ATS away in dome stadiums. A team that comes in mad as hell and ready to spit nails, it’s the Detroit Lions, a team that brings an 11-0-1 ATS record into this match when fighting at home coming off consecutive road games. Now, remember that the Detroit Lions are 13-0 SU and ATS in their last 13 games when coming off a loss.

Big10 Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Okay, what do we have here…a 7-3 team coming off a road win, taking on a 4-6 team that fired its head coach earlier and is using their second-string quarterback, and WTF? The 4-6 team is a nearly 10-point favorite?! The Nittany Lions are 1-4 SU and 0-4-1 ATS in this series, while already bowl-bound Nebraska is 3-0 SU and 2-0 ATS against teams with losing records, by an average of 42.3 points. Consider that PENN STATE is 3-13 ATS when coming off a double-digit win, including 0-7 ATS at home.

Rating: 3 Units

QB Jayden Maivia is improving with every game and has not one but two strong WRs in Biletnikoff candidate Makai Lemon, plus Ja’kobi Lane. In this series, the visitor has been the bagman, going 3-0 ATS while the Trojans are an unsheathed 5-0 ATS in recent Game 11s and sit at 3-0 ATS as a dog of 7 or larger. The Trojans haven’t conquered Oregon since 2016, so this becomes a triple-revenge game where USC shines at 8-3 ATS in a triple vengeance conference battle, including 4-0 ATS as the underdog. A 2-0 finish (Oregon then UCLA) may have the 15th-ranked Trojans penetrating the CFP, and that leads us to the fact that USC’S Lincoln Riley is 7-4 ATS as a dog versus .750 or greater teams, including 4-0 ATS on the road.

SEC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

UK lost starting QB Zach Calzada after just two games; however, he’s available now if needed. Kentucky head coach is more than happy with Boley, citing the quarterback’s upside and command of the offense. Vandy didn’t look so dandy in an overtime win on this field against Auburn two weeks ago, and a look-ahead to hated Tennessee is a distinct possibility. Consider that Stoops is 19-9-1 ATS in games when the Wildcats surrender fewer than 24.5 PPG, including 15-3-1 ATS after scoring 35-plus points in the last game.  

SNF NFL Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Philadelphia’s secondary is a lockdown unit, allowing the NFL’s third-lowest completion percentage (58.9%) and fourth-lowest opponent QB rating (80.2). At the same time, Lions QB Jared Goff is the epitome of precision (20 TDs, just 3 INTs this season). But if you think that’s impressive, we’ll bet you didn’t know that Eagles’ QB Jalen Hurts has thrown just one interception in nine games— the fewest among qualified QBs. The bottom line is the Lions are simply too dangerous as an underdog. Detroit head coach owns the best spread record of all current NFL head coaches, 58-32-2 ATS in his career, including a perfect 7-0-1 ATS tightener in play this week.

AFC Divisional Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Yes, Denver is on a 7-game winning streak, but the immediate concern is that there were 22 penalties overall in last week’s 10-7 close win over the Raiders. Like we said, when it really counts, we’ll favor the Chiefs over the Broncos, with Andy Reid’s team well-rested and furious. Consider that Reid is 23-5 SU and 17-11 ATS with rest during the regular season, including 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in division games when coming off a loss.

SEC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Ole Miss is 4-0 ATS after an unlined game, 4-1 ATS at home with SEC revenge, and not only that, but the Lane Train sits 7th in the CFP standings, and there’s no way Kiffin will allow his team to lose focus when one more win should wrap up a playoff spot for the Rebels. Lane is 37-19-3 ATS in conference games. He wins outright as a favorite, and as if he needs more material to boost his ego, Lane can look to that fact that playing on any SEC team seeking triple-revenge exact if they scored 33-plus points in their last game and they are facing a foe coming off a SUATS loss is 14-1 ATS.

Big-10 Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Sparty is 26-11 SU and 24-13 ATS in the last 37 home games, including 18-6 ATS as either the favorite or the underdog of 10 or less. Still a Spartans skeptic? Consider that Penn State is 5-10 ATS as a conference road favorite when coming off a loss, including 0-4 ATS when coming off consecutive losses.

NFC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Both the Rams and Seahawks are 6-2, while the 49ers are a game back at 5-3. The 6-win Niners will rely on Christian McCaffery, the leading candidate for Comeback Player of the Year, and his line in last week’s 34-4 win in New York against the Giants explains why: 33 touches, 173 yards, two scores. And for what it’s worth, Mac Jones is now 5-2 in place of Brock Purdy, while the Niners are also 10-3 ATS when going into single revenge. With that, consider that the 49ers are 6-4 SU and 8-2 ATS as a divisional home dog with a win percentage of .375 or greater, including 5-0 ATS versus .700 or greater opponents.

Divisional Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Sam Darnold was perfect in the first half: 16/12 with 4 TDs, in last Sunday’s 38-14 smashing win over Washington. His mission today is to avoid a seismic crash to earth at home, where the Seahawks have struggled under head coach Mike Macdonald (5-8 SU and 4-8-1 ATS), as opposed to on the road (11-1 SU and 8-3-1 ATS). Jacoby Brissett, led Zona past the Cowboys in Dallas in a game in which they never trailed with 261 passing yards, 2 TDs, and 0 INTs and a 115.1 Passer Rating. Today, Brissett brings a lofty 5-1-1 ATS career mark in games against foes coming off a pair of SUATS wins. Also consider that Seattle is 3-10 SU and 1-12 ATS coming off consecutive wins against foes coming off a win.

CFB Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Hawaii let us down last week, but head coach Timmy Chang stands 15-6 ATS at home, including 11-0 ATS over the last eleven games, and 7-0 ATS with a win percentage of .333 or greater. That, and San Diego State’s disturbing 1-8 ATS skid as a regular-season favorite versus greater than .600 foes coming off a loss, is enough to get us interested. Chang is 6-0 ATS with revenge coming off a double digit loss when facing a .400 or greater opponent. Finally the Warriors are 14-1 ATS off a road game versus foes off a home game.

ACC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The 8-1 Cavaliers are the ACC representative in the first CFP bracket, even though they’re ranked 14th, but the ACC has to get someone in there. The Wahoos are 0-3 ATS at home off consecutive road games, 1-8 ATS in Game 10, and 3-7-1 ATS as a conference favorite of 7 or more. Wake was badly outclassed last week by Florida State, but the trends for this week are positive, including a 6-0-2 ATS mark in the last eight games of this series. Additionally, the Demon Deacons have a history of recovering well after playing the Seminoles, going 6-0 ATS post-FSU. Wake is also 3-1 ATS in the last four with single conference revenge. Consider that the Devils are 20-8 ATS coming off a SUATS loss against team coming off an ATS win including 8-1 ATS with a winning record. 

NFC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

When you see a team in a divisional matchup that has lost five series losses in a row and are paired with an opponent coming off a Bye week they respond with aplomb, going 9-3 ATS overall dating back to 1990 when the divisions realigned. And when they enter the game with a .400 or better win-percentage they’ve been money in the bank, going 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS. That’s a long-term 100% winning angle, add in Minny’s 8-2 ATS record after playing on a Thursday (extra rest for the Vikes), and you have the makings of a live NFL underdog. Finally, the Vikings are 17-6-1 SU and 18-5-1 ATS in games after surrendering more than 36 points in their last game, including 7-0 ATS as a dog three or more points

Divisional Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

QB Daniel Jones has posted a QB Rating over 100 in each of his seven games this season. Only Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers have achieved that in eight straight games, and both won MVP awards in the years they accomplished the feat. However, the Colts won their sixth game of the season while allowing a season-high yardage total against the Titans last week, and the visiting team is 1-5 ATS in this series. Finally, Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin is 24-12-2 ATS in games following a surrender of 35 or more points in the previous game, including a perfect 9-0 ATS at home after a loss.

CFA Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The 7-0 / 5-0 Middies are one of only six undefeated FBS teams still alive this season, yet they failed to crack the AP Top 25. They own a one-game lead over second place 6-1 / 3-0 Tulane, with 7-1 / 3-1 North Texas breathing down their necks. Looking ahead, the Swabbies will take on Notre Dame, USF, and Memphis to close out the season, foes that are 17-5 collectively heading into this week. Despite scoring 32-plus points on SIX occasions this season, Navy will dress up as a dog for the first time in 2025. With that, consider undefeated Military teams are 28-10 ATS away against foes that allow 24-plus points per game, including 11-0 ATS when coming off a conference clash.

SEC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Texas looked awful for three quarters before a wild rally led to a happy trip from Stark Vegas to Austin; even the usually reliable Texas D struggled against the Bulldogs. Steve Sarkisian is 17-4 ATS after his team allowed 35 points in the previous game, but 9th-ranked Vanderbilt is 5-0 ATS as road dogs of 10 or less. Our issue with the Commodores is they have been outgained in three of the last six games, which isn’t bad news if the game were in Nashville, but downright dangerous when they stride into Austin against a Texas squad 17-1 outright in its last 18 games. Consider that Playing On the AP Preseason Top Ranked team any time they face a foe with a better record if the foe won 7 or fewer games last season is 13-1 ATS.

MNF Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Kansas City is 1-6 ATS in the last seven years in Game Eight of the season, while the Commanders are 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine road games at AFC sites, and 4-0 ATS in their last four games against the AFC West. Consider that the Chiefs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven Monday night games, including 0-4 ATS when coming off a SUATS win.

SNF Game of the Year

Rating: 5 Units

The Pack enters with an 0-5 ATS ledger in its last five games against the AFC North, and 0-3 ATS in its last three games as non-conference road chalk, not to mention 1-4-1 ATS against opponents coming off a Thursday contest. The Steelers counter at 9-2 ATS when coming off a loss as a division favorite, and 7-3-2 ATS after a Thursday game. And did we mention Mike Tomlin’s 32-10 SU and 29-11-2 ATS career mark in games after his troops surrendered 30-plus points in the previous game? Finally, the Steelers are 18-7-5 ATS as home dogs under Tomlin, including 8-1 ATS if they scored and allowed 21 or more points in their previous game.

SEC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The Tigers are winning the stats in their game by an average +245 net YPG; the Commodores are +143 net YPG. Missouri also checks in with an impressive 7-1 ATS record as dogs of fewer than six points, while Vanderbilt has gone 1-9 ATS after facing LSU, including 0-7 ATS at home. The timing is right for an ‘upset’ of the Commies, and we close it out by seeing that Mizzou is 10-0 ATS against opponents that are coming off a SUATS win.  

SEC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

The Rebels’ defense disappeared for most of the contest vs Georgia, giving up points on the first eight Georgia drives and collapsing during a disastrous 0-17 4Q when they were out-yarded by 143-13.  Ole Miss is also 0-8-2 ATS in the second half of consecutive road games. OU’s defense has held all seven opponents to season-low yardage in 2025, the only team in the nation that can claim that. Consider that 6-1 teams coming off their first loss of the season facing a foe that has won 8 of more of its last 22 games are to 3-22 ATS if they scored 35 or fewer points when entering these contests.  Additionally, Coach Venable is 5-2 SUATS in the seven times he’s been in this role, including when his team is seeking revenge, including 4-0 SUATS when not favored by more than 4 points. 

MNF Game of the Month

Rating: 4 Units

The Lions are coming home after a loss, coached by Dan Campbell, who has the best spread record in the league (57-31-2 ATS). Furthermore, Soupy is also 24-5-2 ATS in his NFL career against .500 or better opponents coming off a win. And we haven’t even mentioned the Lions’ impressive 10-0 ATS record at home after back-to-back away games, or their 4-1 SUATS record under Campbell on Monday Night Football. Finally, playing on any NFL Monday night non-division pick or favorite who won 10 or more games last season that is coming off consecutive away games versus a foe off a home win is 13-2 ATS.

AFC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

It’s worth noting that the Colts enter after an ‘inside-out’ win over Arizona (won the game; lost the stats) and have allowed season-high yards, a league-high four times this year. Those are signs of a team about to burst open at the seams.  With the host Bolts 4-1 ATS in this series and 4-1 ATS in the first of consecutive home games, and Indy riding a 0-5 ATS record in games before a division home contest, we look at the fact that HC Harbaugh chews up and spits out non-division foes, going 38-20-3 ATS in his NFL career, including 12-2-1 ATS against greater than .700 opponents.

Big-12 Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Our advice is to forget about ASU’s no-show against the Utes and concentrate on the fact that the Sun Devils have not lost a game at home the past two seasons. Also, it has been reported that Leavitt participated in practice this week. The defense has also held three of five FBS foes to season-low yards this year. Texas Tech, however, will be fighting some bad history this afternoon in the form of a 6-12 ATS record as a road favorite since 2014, including 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS versus .500 or greater opponents. We realize this has all the makings of another Red Raiders rout, but with the series visitor currently on a 0-4 SUATS skid, don’t be shocked if the Devils stick a pitchfork in TTRRs perfect season... especially since ASU is 34-20-1 ATS as a home dog the last 30 years, including 5-0 ATS versus undefeated foes coming off a double-digit ATS win.  

ACC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Georgia Tech continues its fully charmed life, 6-0 and ranked #12 behind dual-threat QB Haynes King. GT is averaging 238 rush yards per game, 12th best in the country, while King is hitting on 71 percent of his tosses and leading the team in rushing at 440 yards with nine touchdowns. GT has been sloppier with the ball this season than Duke, posting a -3 TO margin. Tech, Duke, and Virginia are the only 3-0 ACC teams now, and GT has a clear path to the College Football Playoff, which gives us a clear walkway to the fact that Georgia Tech is 4-0 SUATS as a dog of six or fewer points under Coach Brent Key.

Inter-Conference Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

You’ll seldom see a quarterback complete 28 of 34 passes for 341 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception with a 135.4 QB Rating – yet still lose the game. Then there was Jags’ QB Trevor Lawrence, who completed 18 of 25 passes for 221 yards, one touchdown, and one interception for a 95.6 QB Rating against Kansas City in Jacksonville’s Monday night victory. Some days you’re blessed, and others you’re not. Given the Seahawks’ 4-1 ATS record against opponents coming off a Monday night game, and their 3-1-1 ATS record in AFC South matchups, we'll look at the fact that the Jaguars are 4-15 SU and 2-17 ATS against the NFC West, including 0-11 ATS when the opponent is coming off a loss.

SEC Game of the Week

RATING: 5 Units

UGA is just 1-6 ATS versus rested foes, and 1-5 ATS as road chalk of seven or fewer points. Auburn checks in with a 4-0 ATS mark after scoring ten or fewer points, plus the Tigers have been waiting to get even for last year’s humbling 31-13 loss to the Dawgs. Finally, SEC home dogs are 5-1 ATS this season, including 5-0 ATS versus .750 or greater foes.

Big-12 Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

We’ll admit giving consideration to Kansas State’s season being kaput after last week’s gut-busting 1-point loss at Baylor, until we're reminded us that all four of K-State’s losses were of the one-score variety – the most in the nation. TCU comes in with a dreadful series point spread record of 1-6 ATS, including 0-3 ATS away in the last three meet-and-greets. KSU head coach Chris Klieman stands 29-13 SU and 24-12 ATS at home, including 15-6 SU and 16-4 ATS if they did not beat the spread by 4 or more points in their previous game. And then, finally there is the fact that head coach Sonny Dykes is 4-17 SU and 6-13-2 ATS against foes coming off consecutive ATS wins that allow fewer than 27 PPG, including 1-14 SU and 4-11 ATS from Game Six out.

NFL Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

The Ravens were already hit hard by injuries before Lamar Jackson left the game against the Chiefs with a hamstring issue. Backup QB Cooper Rush (9-5 SUATS as an NFL starter) will be under center at least this week. They’re 1-3 for the first time since 2015 and two games behind the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC North. And if you can believe it – the top two teams in the AFC North are collectively 0-8 ITS (In The Stats) this season! With the Ravens 0-4 ITS the last four game we look at the fack that Baltimore is also 0-8 ATS when coming off a non-division SU favorite loss.

Inter-Conference Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Only three NFL teams have started the season negative in the Yards Per Play battle in each of their four games: Carolina, Tennessee, and Philadelphia! And we didn’t even mention the Birds’ 1-5 ATS record before facing Big Blue. Moreover, in Sean Payton-Eagles games is 3-0 ATS in his career. Despite the Eagles winning 20 of their last 21 games and disgruntled WR AJ Brown speaking out about a lack of targets, it’s time to consider stepping aside from Philadelphia. Reason being, consider that the Eagles bring an 0-10 ATS record into the game after facing Tampa Bay.

Big-12 Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

It’s hard for us to pass on Houston head coach Willie Fritz in his patented home cookin’ roles: 47-23 SU and 35-24-1 ATS overall, including 11-4 SU and 8-2-1 ATS in games in which they are allowing fewer than 16.0 points per game, including 4-0 ATS in conference games. The biggest problem for Tech is that they are laying double-digits into an opponent with a stingy defense, while the Red Raiders have taken backward steps in every game they’ve played this season (Texas Tech Offensive Production - Points scored: 67, 62, 45, and 34. Yards Gained: 608, 601, 599, and 484. )

CFB Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

UC is an odd 0-4 ATS in the first of consecutive home games and 1-4 ATS in a double-revenge game; ISU is 2-0 in the series. The Cyclones are 9-0 ATS in Game 6 and 5-0 ATS against double revenge. Cincinnati QB Brendan Sorsby has had a solid season so far with 1,260 total yards, but the ISU defense is giving up just 14.2 ppg. Consider that 5-0 college football underdogs in Game Six are 11-0 ATS coming off a double-digit win when facing an opponent they beat in a most recent matchup.

AFC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

The two times that Kansas City started the season 1-2 under Reid, they finished 10-3 and 11-3 to close out the year and made the NFL playoffs each season. Baltimore is in disarray. NFL favorites who score 110 or more points in their last three games are just 56-66 ATS against foes coming off a SUATS win, including 2-8 ATS if the favorite owns a win percentage under .600. Finally, Andy Reid is 60-38 SU and 62-36 ATS in games where his team sports a .500 or fewer record, including 35-15 SU and 34-16 ATS against foes with a .500 or fewer record.

NFC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Atlanta lost 30-0 but out-rushed, out-passed, and out-gained its opponent while holding them to just 224 total yards of offense. That makes 1-2 Atlanta 3-0 in the season’s ITS (In The Stats), winning their games by an average of +111 net yards per game. Meanwhile, the 2-1 Commanders’ wins this season have come against teams currently with a 1-5 record. With the Dirty Birds aiming to avenge a 30-24 loss at Washington in Game 16 last season that cost them a winning record, we look at the fact that Atlanta is 5-0 SUATS when coming off a shutout loss with a win percentage of .333 or greater.

Big-10 Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

USC has gone 0-4 ATS off four-plus SU wins, and 2-8 ATS in its last ten conference road games, including 0-6 ATS as a favorite of more than 5 points. The Trojans will also be dealing with an early 12:00 noon Central Time start instead of their usual West Coast time. Bielema has lost just one game to the spread by more than 40 points, and he responded by winning outright, 31-10, as a home dog in the next game. The loss to IU was ugly, but Illinois still fields 17 starters on the nation’s No. 4 overall ranked team in Returning Production. Take the points with this red-faced Homecoming dog as the Illini spring the old Trojan Horse trick on USC.

5* CFB Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Something is amiss in Manhattan, as Chris Kleiman’s 1-3 Wildcats are lost in a startling 1-6 SUATS skid in FBS contests of late, losing five games outright as a favorite. They’ll be hard-pressed to match emotional intensity with the visiting Knights today after UCF OL coach Shawn Clark died on Monday. The Knights are 3-0 SU and ITS (In The Stats) this season, winning the total yards by an average +203 per game, while the Wildcats show up with a 0-5 ATS record when playing with rest. UCF is also playing with revenge from a 44-31 loss they suffered on this field in 2023. Consider that the Knights are 11-0 ATS as road dogs of 3 or more points when coming off a SUATS win

Inter-Conference Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

We realize we’re tempting fate using a defending Super Bowl loser on the road today, but they happen to be 14-5-1 ATS in non-division games when both squads are coming off back to-back losses. Additionally, the G-Men’s unpleasant 1-12 SUATS record in home openers. Finally, NFL away teams in Game Three coming off consecutive losses are 14-6 SUATS since 1988 if they were a playoff team last season and are facing a foe coming off a loss, including 5-0 ATS if they out-yarded their opponent in the Game Two loss.

NFL Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Bengals starting QB, Browning is 4-3 straight up and 3-3-1 against the spread in his NFL career starts, including 0-3 straight up and against the spread against opponents coming off a loss. Vikings starting QB, Wentz has a nearly steady 45-50 straight-up and 42-52-1 against the spread career record as a starter in this league, he is 0-1-1 straight up and 0-2 against the spread against the Bengals, and just 3-8 against the spread in his last eleven NFL starts. Remember, Burrow set most of the Bengals’ good team trends in this contest. However, the home team in this series is 12-1 straight up and 11-1-1 against the spread. It's a Vikings play.

Big-10 Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

You must go back 38 years to find a Top 20 matchup in Bloomington when the Hoosiers beat Michigan 14-10. In a close matchup, with star runners and receivers having nearly identical stats, we turn to our stats: Illinois is 5-1 ATS as a conference road dog of 10 or less, 4-1 in Game Four, and 5-2 in single conference revenge. The Hoosiers have had a rough time in this series, 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS when coming off a victory, plus 1-4 ATS when coming off a shutout win.  The Illinois head coach, Bret Bielema, has literally been money-in-the bank in road games with his team, going 15-3 ATS, including 12-1 ATS as a dog of more than two points. Finally, playing against any 3-0 CFB home favorite in Game Four of a four-game season-opening homestand if they failed to score 40 or more points in each of their previous two games and they are facing an undefeated foe that allows fewer than 13.5 PPG is 13-2 ATS.

SEC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

The Garnet-and-Black won last season’s tussle with Missouri, and they’re 43-21-1 ATS as dogs of more than 12 points, including 5-0 ATS the last five games. And even if that trend is nullified by a line move below -12, the Gamecocks have still gone 7-4 SU and 8-3 ATS in conference games when coming off a loss as a favorite, including 5-0 ATS when off an ATS loss of 13 or more points. The Tigers, who must have kidnapped the FBS schedule maker back in January, show up for their fourth of what will be SIX straight home games to open the campaign. They also bring along an 11-22 SUATS record versus a conference foe coming off an outright loss as a favorite, including 2-11 ATS at home, and 0-7 ATS when coming off a win of three or more points. Simply put, South Carolina cannot afford to start its SEC schedule 0-2 with LSU, Oklahoma, and Alabama on the docket for October. Finally, with South Carolina off an ATS loss, teams in this situation are 131-85-4 ATS in these ‘Game Four' situations. Add them coming off a SU favorite loss they go to 73-40-3 ATS, including 41-14-2 ATS as a dog.

Inter-Conference Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Super Bowl losers are 80-63-5 ATS at home the following season when coming off a loss, including 55-19 SU and 43-29-2 ATS against foes coming off a win, including 4-0 SUATS as a pick or dog of 2 or fewer points. Additionally, the Eagles enter just 1-7 ATS in Game Two of the season, and defending Super Bowl winners are 14-25 ATS in Game Two since 1986, including 5-14 ATS as road favorites. Finally, Patrick Mahomes is 15-2 ATS in his NFL career as a pick or dog, including 7-0 ATS versus foes not coming off a double-digit win.

AFC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The Jets come into this one as a division dog seeking triple revenge and are 12-4 ATS overall in that role, and are 3-0 ATS in home openers. Consider that the Jets are 13-0 ATS as a home dog against AFC foes with at least one win on the season.  

SEC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Last year, Arkansas was embarrassed by Ole Miss 63-31, so revenge is on Sam Pittman’s mind. He’s 16-5-1 ATS overall away, including 6-1-1 ATS when his team has a win percentage of .600 or better. In the series, the Razorbacks are 10-2 ATS in the last 12, 5-1 ATS away last year, …AND 11-2-1 ATS on the road seeking revenge, including 7-1 ATS as a dog of six or more. Finally,  Lane Kiffin’s at home defending against revenge is 9-16-2 ATS, including 0-4 ATS against the undefeated.

CFB Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

West Virginia HC Rodriguez remembers the 2007 Brawl, which saw his BCS title hopes go down in flames with a 13-9 loss to Pitt when WVU was a massive 28.5 point favorite. Rich did get them back in ’08 when his team ended Pitt’s undefeated dreams. Consider that Rodriguez is 12-6 SU and 10-6-1 ATS in his career when coming off his first loss of the season, including 9-2 SU and 8-1-1 ATS when his team is yielding fewer than 24 points.

4* NFC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Jayden Daniels was 1st rookie in NFL history to throw 3 TD passes & run for over 125 yds in a game & the only QB to lead his team in rush yds LY (891-most rush yds by a rookie QB in NFL history).   However, the Commanders roster has an average age of 28.1 years old, the oldest in NFL history. Additionally,  Washington is 3-9 outright and 2-10 ATS as a division home favorite, including 1-7 ATS as a favorite of 8 or fewer points.

5* AFC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Colts QB Daniel Jones, is 25-45-1 overall in the NFL, including 3-14 SUATS in his last 17 starts.   In the 11 games that Tagovailoa started last year, running back Achane averaged 22.6 PPG. Last year, 22.6 PPG would have been the No. 1 RB in fantasy football. Last year, no running back had more receptions or receiving yards than… Achane. And he’s been pronounced fit and healthy for this game. With that, consider that the Colts are 2-14-1 SU and 2-15 ATS in season-opening games, including 0-9 ATS as a pick or favorite.

CFB Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The Eagles bring a 0-4 ATS log in lined contests into this game when coming off a season-opening win, and we’ll back the Spartans to post a win-and-cover tonight. Finally, MSU head coach Jonathan Smith is 23-15 ATS when his team is seeking revenge, including 7-2 ATS when both teams are coming off a win, and 3-0 SUATS before Game Six of the season.

CFB Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Iowa HC Ferentz is 26-19-1 ATS as the underdog when seeking vengeance. Iowa’s lone home loss was to ISU last year, and the Hawkeyes had a 13-point lead erased before losing on a late field goal.  In this Cy-Hawk Trophy series, Iowa is 4-0 ATS as the visitor to Jack Trice, plus 4-0 ATS in their first road game, and 6-1 ATS as dogs of six or fewer.  Iowa is also 12-1 SU and 9-4 ATS in road openers since 2012, including 4-0 SUATS the last four seasons. Finally, the visiting team in this series is 10-2 SU and 8-4 ATS, including 6-0 outright when the Hawkeyes are the visitor. 

Rating: 5 Unit Inter-Conference Game of the Week

Kalen DeBoer led Alabama to a 9-4 record last year. At most places, that’s worthy of a celebration, but not in Tuscaloosa. It marked the Tide’s worst season in 17 years. The culprit was losing four games outright as a favorite, the most for Alabama dating back to 2000. But here’s the silver lining: most of the offensive line and 13 defenders with 200+ snaps are back. DeBoer also reunites with his ace play-caller, Ryan Grubb, to crank up an offense that averaged just 28 PPG against SEC foes. FSU hired six new assistants, including OC Gus Malzahn and OL coach Herb Hand. In 2007, at Tulsa, Norvell, Malzahn, and Hand’s staff achieved an NCAA-record season with a 5,000-yard passer, three 1,000-yard receivers, and a 1,000-yard rusher – a glimpse of the potential this revamped Seminoles squad could unleash in 2025.  However, The Alabama Crimson Tide have won 23 season-opening games in a row. Florida State is 6-48 ATS in outright home losses since 1981. Additionally, playing on any college football team in its season opener if they lost straight-up as a bowl favorite of -7 or more points the previous season (Alabama) and has won 21 or more of their previous 28 home games, they are a perfect 16-0 SU and 13-3 ATS when going against foes that won four or fewer games last season. 

Rating: 4 Unit Play of the Day

Vols have chewed up and spit out non-conference foes in regular-season games of late, going 12-0 SU and 9-0 ATS the previous three seasons, while outscoring the last five foes, 306-16!  Additionally, SEC teams are 17-2 SU in the Kickoff Classic while ACC teams are 3-15 outright. SEC teams are also 14-1 SU all-time against ACC teams in the Kickoff Classic by an average win margin of 16.1 points per game. Consider as well that College Football Playoff losers have gone 26-4 in season-opening games the following year by an average win margin of 24.3 points per game.

Super Bowl Smash

Rating: 5 Units

Consider that Super Bowl favorites of 5 or fewer points (Kansas City) in ‘double rest’ affairs – a week of rest before their first playoff game and a week of rest before the big game – are 5-13 SU and 4-15 ATS and No. 1 seeds in the Super Bowl (Kansas City) are 15-20 SU and 12-21-2 ATS since 1990, including 7-21 SU and 4-13-2 ATS versus non-No.1 seeds. The Eagles hold the highest points per game in the fourth quarter (9.3) this season and rank 13th in the league with first-quarter points per game (5). A slow start could be in order for the Birds. In closing, the Eagles arrived at SB LIX after five consecutive home games – the first time for any Super Bowl squad. Since 1980: Previous Super Bowl teams coming off four successive home games are 5-0 SUATS – all as a dog.

Conference Championship Game of the Month

Rating: 4 Units

Kansas City opened the year with a nice 27-20 home win over the Ravens, but the Chiefs were out-gained by 99 yards. In Week 2, they were out-gained again and needed a walk-off 51-yard field goal against the Bengals. In Week 5, they were in a struggle with the Saints before Derek Carr got knocked out of the game. In Week 16, they were tied with the Texans before Tank Dell's horrific knee injury in the third quarter. Following the Chiefs' Week 11 loss at Buffalo, here's who Kansas City closed the regular season with: Panthers, Raiders, Chargers, Browns, Texans, Steelers and Broncos (when KC benched all of its starters). Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Chiefs played the No. 24 schedule this season (Buffalo's schedule was No. 14). When these teams met in mid-November, Buffalo closed as a 2.5-point home favorite. You certainly have to make an adjustment for homefield advantage, but we'd argue that the Chiefs' power rating should have dropped since then. Depending on what closing number you use in last week's game against the Texans, Kansas City went 3-5-1 against the spread to close the season. Buffalo went 6-3 ATS with wins over the 49ers, Lions, Broncos and Ravens. Why has the Chiefs' rating in the betting market improved? Because they beat the short-handed Texans twice?

Divisional Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

The Lions’ come into this one a massive 14-2 SU and 11-4-1 ATS mark when laying points this campaign. The fact is that any team in the Divisional Round, coming off an upset win as an underdog in the Wild Card Round (Washington), is 0-15 SU and 3-12 ATS as a road dog if they won five or fewer games the previous season.

AFC East Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Most of Miami’s early lack of success is attributable to the loss of QB Tua Tagovailoa in the early portion of the campaign. The Tongan has pled well in division duke-outs with a 13-8 SU and 12-8-1 ATS career mark, including 11-2 SU and 9-4 ATS versus losing division foes. He missed the team’s victory at Cleveland because of a hip injury, and he is questionable this week. This means Tyler “Snoop” Huntley may be making a fifth start for the Dolphins in 2024. The Jets can’t seem to get off the runway in this series, just 2-11 SU and 3-10 ATS since 2018. They are also just 2-10 ATS when coming off double-digit SUATS losses and 2-11 ATS in their last thirteen puppy roles. With the Miami’s 11-2 ATS as a favorite coming off a favorite role in their previous game, it’s time we say goodbye, Mr. Rodgers. Finally, Miami QB Tyler Huntley is 4-1 SUATS in his NFL career against foes coming off consecutive losses, including 3-0 SUATS away

NFC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

With the Rams having climbed the mountain and now breathing playoff air, and currently 5-10 SU and 4-11 ATS at home against triple-revenging foes, we’re riding the Seahawks as they zero in on a 10-win season, which is what Los Angeles will have if they fall to Seattle today. With that, we’re all over the mad-as-hell triple-avenging division visitor with the better offense and defense. Finally, playing against any .500 or greater NFL team in its final game of the season if they are coming off three consecutive revenge wins is 9-1 ATS.

NFC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The Bucs hold a 57% chance of breaking through. That improves to 70% with a win here and 85% with a pair of season-ending victories. The good news is they have beat Carolina like a drum of late, winning eight of the last nine meetings while cashing eight of the previous eleven games as a division home favorite of five or more points. In addition, the Panthers are 0-5 SUATS in Game Sixteen of the season in the last five years. Finally, Carolina is 0-9 SU and 2-6-1 ATS versus winning opponents behind QB Bryce Young, including 0-5 SUATS against opponents with an .800 or fewer win percentage.

AFC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Denver can clinch a playoff bid with a win today or next week. It currently holds the 7th and final playoff seed, while Cincinnati holds the No. 9 spot in the AFC playoff chain. Mathematically, Denver enters with a 76% chance of being playoff-bound, while Cincy clings to a scant 4% chance of earning a playoff berth. That improves to 14% with wins today and next week against the Steelers. Don’t tell that to Joe Burrow, though. All he knows is his team is still breathing. We know that Burrow is 9-3-1 ATS in his NFL career against the AFC West, including 5-0 SUATS in the last five games as a host. In addition, the Striped Cats are 3-1-1 ATS on Saturdays, while the Broncos are 1-4 ATS on Saturdays. Finally, the Bengals are 14-4 ATS against .600 or greater non-division opposition with Joe Burrow, including 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS when Cincy enters off a SUATS win.

Bowl Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Remember that SEC bowl favorites are 30-12 SU and 20-11-1 ATS versus Big Ten opponents off a loss, but just 2-8 ATS in bowl games against foes off a SU loss. On the flip side, the 6-6 Trojans were also a major disappointment this season, and Lincoln Riley needs a win here to avoid his first losing season as a head coach. QB Miller Moss was benched mid-season, and Riley will get a good look at Jayden Maiava, who beat Nebraska and UCLA in November. Finally, the good news is that 6-6 bowl teams shine against foes coming off consecutive SUATS losses and are ready to rumble in the post-season. That’s confirmed by the fact that 6-6 bowl teams coming off a pair of SUATS losses are 24-10 ATS, including 12-3 SU and 14-1 ATS with a scoring defense that allows 25 or fewer PPG.

Inter-Conference Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

According to Seahawks’ head coach Mike MacDonald, all signs are positive for Smith heading into this pivotal matchup with the Vikings. If Seattle wins out, they will be the NFC West champions. Minnesota’s issue starts with the fact that they are 0-5 SUATS in Game Fifteen in the last five years. They are also 1-7 outright in the previous eight games in this series (3-5 outright) and 1-6 ATS after hosting a division game. On the flip side, Seattle counters at 9-2 ATS as a dog off a loss against a foe coming off a win as a favorite. Finally, playing against any NFL road favorite from Game Eleven out when off three straight home games if they are coming off a win and failed to beat the spread by 18 or more points is 35-9 ATS.

NFL Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

We realize that having the Cowboys on deck for Philly isn’t as meaningful today as in years past (0-8-1 ATS before Dallas). But that cloud still rests above the Eagles, as in the three games away from Lincoln Financial Field against winning teams (projected playoff teams) this season, Philadelphia is 0-3 ITS (In The Stats) by an average of -117 net yards. With the Commanders 7-1-1 ATS as small home dogs of fewer than five points when coming off a win, and Game Fifteen division home dogs standing 6-1 ATS against foes coming off a win, you know the right side of this game. Finally, NFL home teams coming off a one-point win-no-cover that was preceded by a Bye week are 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS since 2020 when playing with revenge.