NCAAF Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

The Tigers are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games away from the Bayou when forced to lay points. Meanwhile, the Seminoles comes back with no less than 18 starters back from last year’s 10-win squad which improved on offense by 8 points and 104 yards per game, while the defense allowed 6 points less and 58 yards less per contest. They are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in this series since 1980, including 4-0 SUATS when facing an LSU squad that won six or more games the previous season. Finally, Florida State is 9-0-2 in 11 previous contests in Orlando.

Rating: 2 Units

OSU comes into this one 8-2 ATS in their last ten games versus MWC foes, and also closed the season on a 7-0 ATS run, thanks largely to a defense that improved 55 YPG. The Spartans were on the opposite side ATS finishing up 0-7 ATS their final seven games and it continued in a 56-28 loss to USC in Saturday night’s season opener. Former Hawaii QB Chevan Cordeiro threw 3 TD passes to WR Nick Nash against the Trojans and ran for an additional 52 yards on the ground. However, with SJSU just 1-26 SU in their last twenty-seven lined games against Pac-12 opponents.  To close it all out, consider that playing on any CFB away team as either a favorite or dog of fewer than 20 points in its season opener if they won 8 or more games last season and are facing an opponent coming off a loss of 8 or more points as a dog is 11-0 ATS since 1990.

Rating: 2 Units

This Coast-to-Coast matchup features a Coastal team that doesn't do well in games where they are a big underdog, going 4-8 ATS when taking double digits.  UCLA comes in off a winning season but lost it's bowl game. Keeping that in mind playing on any college football team in its season-opening game if they lost straight-up as a bowl favorite of -7 or more points last season is a money making 50-33-1 ATS in games since 1990 – a rock-solid 60% winning proposition. In addition, when these same teams open the season at home and have won 15 or more of their previous 28 home games they are a winning 29-10-1 ATS, including 16-3-1 ATS since 2007.

Rating: 3 Units

NC Coach Mack is 26-4 SU in season openers, (18-1 in the last 19) and he brings back 18 starters hungry for revenge and looking to compete with pre-season favorites Florida State and Clemson. South Carolina, hasn’t been very successful versus ACC teams lately, going 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS in the last six. When they play in neutral territory, they are only 1-3 SUATS. Finally, UNC IS 5-0 as a favorite of fewer than four points against SEC foes.

Rating: 3 Units

WKU has brought in a pair of WRs from Auburn and Tennessee to join wideout Malachi Corley (led college football in yards after catch with 975 and missed tackles forced with 40), so look for W. Kentucky to add to a 5-1-1 ATS record in lined openers. South Florida has not faired well in each of the last three meetings, going 0-3 ATS against Western.  Additionally, they are 4-29 overall out-right their L33 contests. The Bulls are also on a 1-16 straight-up run which is why first-year head coach Alex Golesh is now in Tampa.

Rating: 3 Units

NIU is 30th in returning players and they’ve hung with BC in two losses, both by three points. In 2021 the Huskies won nine, last season they won just three times. We like the 2021 MAC champs to ride a healthy QB in Rocky Lombardi to connect with WR Treyvon Rudolph, more than three times, to keep this one respectable.  Take the points.

Rating: 2 Units

Hawaii returns to the Island with a 6-4 SU and 8-2 ATS mark in their last ten lined home openers, including 6-1 ATS when taking points. Standford has a new HC and new CFB head coaches are 7-18-2 ATS in Game One with a team that won three or fewer games the previous season. Adding to HC Taylor’s issues is Stanford’s horrible 1-8 SUATS mark in its last nine road games. To finish it off, consider that Hawaii is a perfect 7-0 ATS as a home dog in Pac-12 games since 2010.

Rating: 2 Units

Florida edged the Utes, 29-26, as a 5.5-point home dog in last year’s season opener, however keep in mind that Utah HC Whittingham is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in his career when seeking revenge from a non-conference loss. He’s also 15-0 outright in home openers against non-conference opponents with an average winning score of 38-14. Florida’s Napier does bring a 17-7 ATS dog log into the fray, including 5-1 last season, but Utah looks to be so loaded.

Rating: 2 Units

Both of these teams struggled last season under rookie head coaches, but the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs clearly had the better offseason, bringing in a top notch quarterback in Bachmeier from Boise State and a promising receiver in Crawford from Nebraska. they also have more talent coming back, including two top receivers and their leading running back. Tech could seriously challenge for the Conference USA title so they should get off to a good start here. With the firepower they have, giving up 11.5 points doesn't seem like much. And for the Panthers, this could be another long year as they lost some key pieces. Take Louisiana Tech to cover the spread.

NCAAF Play of the Day

Rating: 3 Units

Vanderbilt has been more than 7-point favorites in a season opener five times since 1980 and lost four games outright. They’re just 5-10 ATS as favorites of 14 or more points in nonconference clashes, including 0-4 ATS in the last four. Hawaii likely comes into this one seething from a 63-10 season-opening loss to Vanderbilt in Timmy Chang’s debut last year. A 9-5 ATS mark in season-opening road games works, as does momentum for a 6-1 ATS season-ending effort the previous year.

Rating: 2 Units

Former DC, Brian Newberry, takes over from Ken Niuamatolo after 16 seasons as the Navy head man on the sidelines. Newberry’s defense allowed a respectable 347.5 YPG in his four seasons in Annapolis. He does inherit 18 starters from last year’s squad. Consider that the Irish are only 19-28 ATS versus the military schools since 1990, including 13-27 ATS at home or on a neutral field. As an added bonus to this pick the last time the Navy endured three consecutive losing seasons, they won 8 games and went bowling. Finally, remember that Military football dogs of 20-plus points are 82-39-4 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 2 Units

The fortuitous Bulldogs, who are 28-3 with QB Stetson Bennett behind center, will be looking to become the first team to repeat as a national champion since the inception of the CFP nine years ago. However, the double-digit line leaves some wiggle room for TCU backers, as the favorite in CFP championship games is 3-5 ATS all time, including 0-2 SUATS versus non-undefeated foes coming off a SU underdog win. Then there’s the 0-4 SUATS failure of the four defending champions who found their way back to the championship game the following season (see Alabama last year). Additionally, Dykes is 10-5 SU and 11-3-1 ATS when his team sports a .900 or greater win percentage and are taking on undefeated foes, including 7-0-1 ATS after scoring 39 or more points in their last game. Let’s also not forget that .750 or greater double-digit bowl dogs coming off a SU underdog win are 5-0 ATS the last fifteen years, and bowl dogs of more than 12 points are 7-0 ATS versus .900 or greater opponents the last ten years.

Rating: 2 Units

The three-loss Utes actually improved their numbers on both sides of the ball in 2022; yet fell short of their targeted goal of being the fi rst PAC12 school since 2016 to make their way to the College Football Playoff. And while the Nittany Lions were never a real threat to make the CFP this season, they have a chance to close out the campaign with their fourth 11-win season in the past seven years with a victory against Utah today. It’s been a season of two tales for James Franklin’s troops who started the 2022 season 5-0 and closed it out going 4-0. The one thing that jumps off the page in this contest is PSU’s penchant for staying on a roll as they ride a jaw-dropping 16-3 SU and 17-1 ATS mark into this game when coming off a pair of SUATS wins. It’s numbers like those, and incentive to boot, that puts them on our playlist today. 

Rating: 3 Units

In his lone season at Oklahoma, Heisman Trophy winning QB Caleb Williams recorded 1,912 passing yards, 21 passing touchdowns, four interceptions, 442 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns in 11 games. This season with the Trojans, Williams threw for 4,075 yards, 37 touchdowns (tied for most in the nation), and four interceptions, while running for 372 yards and 10 touchdowns on 109 carries. Consider that first year coaches favored in bowl games are just 16-32 ATS against foes coming off a win, and Pac-12 bowlers who allow over 25 PPG are 20-42 ATS, including 0-14 ATS the last 14. With that, finally review that the bowl team with the Heisman Trophy winner is 0-8 SUATS off SUATS loss since 1980. 

Rating: 2 Units

If Brohm DNA runs through brother Brian’s veins it should prove fruitful as big brother Jeff is 11-0 ATS as a dog when coming off a loss – including 10-0 with Purdue. Conference title game losers are 8-2 ATS as double-digit bowl dogs. The biggest hurdle the Makers need to get over is the lack of success by teams in bowl games that won as a dog of more than 6 points in a bowl game the previous season. Meanwhile, LSU enters behind high profile boss Brian Kelly who is 6-0 SU and 2-3-1 ATS in his career against Purdue. The bad news is BK is also just 5-8 ATS in bowl games, including 0-3 ATS when favored by 7-plus points. So, while a huge coaching mismatch is in the making, the fact also remains that the Tigers were one win from capturing the SEC championship and will likely look at this contest as little more than a full uniform scrimmage. Expect the ‘Brohm factor’ to lead to another payday

Rating: 2 Units

All things being equal, we’d be ordering up a big fade against the Bulldogs in this bowl game were it not for the sudden passing of Leach, and the feeling here is the effect of the Grim  Reaper’s presence will outweigh any notion of “winning one for the Gipper”. Don’t consider an Over play, either, not with Illinois owning the nation’s No. 1 Scoring Defense (12.25), and the Bulldogs holding four opponents to season-low yardage in 2022. The bottom line is we see Illinois playing up to the standard of excellence they achieved the season in a big win for head coach Bret Bielema.

Bowl Game of the Year

Rating: 5 Units

This will be Georgia’s third time playing in Mercedes-Benz Stadium this season, with the Bulldogs dominating both Oregon and LSU by a combined margin of 99-30. In addition to a virtually impenetrable defense, veteran QB Stetson Bennett is complimented by a three-headed rushing attack featuring RB with Kenny McIntosh, Daijun Edwards, and Kendall Milton, who have all rushed for more than 500 yards in 2022. Meanwhile, OSU receivers Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka just might be the best receiver tandem in the country for Heisman finalist QB CJ Stroud. Yes, bowlers like UGA who allow fewer than 14.5 PPG that won their conference title game are 19-4 SU and 17-6 ATS all-time, including 13-0 SU and 12-1 ATS against foes who allow 14.5 or more PPG.

Rating: 3 Units

No Alabama, Tennessee, Clemson, Utah, etc, but the only 4 teams in the land with less than 2 losses (Michigan & Georgia, the only perfect squads. When Harbaugh took over the reins at Ann Arbor in '15, great things were expected, & realized with 7 straight bowl seasons, with 42-27, 45-23 wins over archrival Ohio St L2 yrs, but couldn't close the deal: 0-5 SU/ATS (-8, -15½, -30, -11½, -15½ pts) in L5 bowls. TCU Horned Frogs were hosed from the playoffs in '14, despite their 11-1 log, proving it with 42-3 (-3½) Peach Bowl rout of Ole Miss. Frog QB Duggan (2nd in Heisman voting) at 30/4, with Wolves' McCarthy at 20/3. No RB Corum (1,436 yds) for Mich, but note UM's #3 "D" vs Tcu's #74. Take the TD. 

Rating: 2 Units

With Levis, who was 17-7 in his starts for the Cats since transferring from Penn State in 2021, having left the team, redshirt FR Kaiya Sheron will fill in. Complicating matters, UK head coach Mark Stoops fired offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello after just one season. He sure as hell won’t hire Iowa OC Brian Ferentz for a replacement, not when Ferentz presided over an offense so horrible in 2022 that one fan showed up for a game holding a sign that read, “I’m only here for the punter.” So how did a 17 PPG offense ranked No. 130 in First Down Offense land a bowl game? A bad-to-the-bone Hawkeyes defense, that’s how. Iowa is tied for No. 2 nationally in Defensive TDs (5) and holds the No. 4 spot in overall Total Team Defense. Jack Campbell won the Butkus Award as the nation’s top linebacker and the ‘D’ held 5 foes to season-low yards. Kentucky’s defense also came to play this season, holding 5 foes to season-low yards. We’ll summon the ‘R’ word to cement our pick: Iowa HC Kirk Ferentz is 6-1 ATS with revenge off a loss of 7 or more points, while Wildcats HC Stoops is just 4-9 ATS versus a foe off a loss.

Rating: 2 Units

Always an unusual season, when the Crimson Tide of Alabama is not a participant in the Final Four Playoffs (just the 2nd time in 8 seasons). Years of excellence continue on, scoring 30+ pts in 46 of their last 53 games, with their only SU losses TY: 52-49 in L0:00 at Tenn, & 32-31 on 2-pt OT conversion at Lsu. Heisman winner Young: just 2/0 & 1/1 in those losses. Can 'Tide prepare properly for this, after such close misses, along with multiple transfer portal cases? Kansas State Wildcats took TCU for Big12 Title in OT. QBs Howard & Martinez are more than capable, as is the 2nd coming of Darren Sproles in Deuce Vaughn. Take the TD.

Rating: 2 Units

It took Dabo Swinney the entire season to pull the plug on erratic starter D.J. Uiagalelei for Cade Klubnik, a former 5* recruit for the Tigers. Swinney must have informed all parties concerned that the move was permanent, causing Uiagalelei to immediately hit the transfer portal. For the Vols from Rocky Top, backup QB Joe Milton, who transferred in from Michigan, takes over for Hendon Hooker, who was enjoying a marvelous season until suffering an ACL tear against South Carolina. Tennessee does boast the No. 1 ranked offense in the nation (538 YPG), but that was largely behind QB Hooker. In addition, WR Jalin Hyatt, who won the Biletnikoff Award, is undecided. We know the Volunteers have played on some big stages this year, but this sort of thing is ‘been there, done that’ for the Tigers, as Swinney stands 29-9 ATS away off a double-digit SUATS win, including 12-1 ATS the last 13. Both teams have played their share of undisciplined football in 2022, but Tennessee takes the trophy as the nation’s No. 124 team in most Penalties Per Game (8.00). Yes, we know Clemmie is just 3-4 ITS (In The Stats) in its last seven games of the season; however, that’s not enough to keep us off the striped cats.

Rating: 2 Units

First-year coaches favored in bowl games are 16-32 ATS vs. foes coming off a win, including 2-12 ATS against those off a SU underdog win. Uh oh. Then there’s the matter of Notre Dame’s negligent 7-15 SUATS failure in its last 17 bowl games, including 3-14 ATS vs. foes off a win. And we wouldn’t be doing our job if we left out this damning stat: the Irish are ranked No. 129 in Red Zone Defense, worst of all bowler. Head coach Shane Beamer owns a solid 6-1 ATS record vs. non-conference foes and his team won four games SU as underdogs this campaign. Head coach Marcus Freeman will have the Irish back in the thick of it before long, but it’s a little early to back them here considering SC has gone 6-2 SUATS in its previous 8 bowl games.

Rating: 2 Units

Quite a cross country trip for the U.C.L.A. Bruins & the Pittsburgh Panthers, but that didn't keep them from facing each other 14 times, many in season openers, from 1958 thru 1972, with the Bruins holding a 9-5 edge. For Pitt, this makes it 13 bowls in 15 years (4-8 SU, 3-9 ATS), while for the Uclans, this is their first such holiday affair since '17 (35-17 Cactus Bowl loss to Kansas St). Similar seasons for these 2, with Bruins reaching 9th in the polls off their 6-0 start, flattening out, with nary a cover since Nov 5th. Panther in a 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) windup, but have lost QB Slovis, as well as AA DL Kancey. Simply cannot ignore such significant turns.

Rating: 2 Units

Maryland is staring down some ugly ATS numbers here: 1-6-1 SUATS as a bowler if not favored by 3 or more points, sub .600 bowlers off a shutout win are 1-7 ATS, and head Terrapin Locksley is a back-in-the-shell 3-39 SU and 15-27 ATS versus a foe with the better record. Yikes. The bad news for State is its miserable 1-8 ITS (In The Stats) record versus bowlers in 2022, but with Doeren boasting a 6-0 ATS record in bowl games versus a foe off a SUATS win, and the Pack having cashed a ticket in 10 of its last 13 bowls, we’ll back DD over Mike Locksley any day of the week.

Rating: 2 Units

Washington had a phenomenal season which earned first-year coach Kalen DeBoer a contract extension, winning ten games and seeing QB Michael Penix Jr lead the nation in passing. They have won six in a row, but the best news is that Penix will return for his senior season next year. However, the Huskies find themselves squarely locked inside the fact that Pac-12 bowl teams are 1-23 ATS when facing an opponent coming off a win. Even worse, Pac-12 bowlers who allow more than 25 PPG are 20-42 ATS, including 0-14 ATS in their last 14 bowl appearances. Finally, this is virtually a home game for the Horns, (they posted dominating wins here the 2020 and 2019 editions of the Alamo Bowl), and even if running backs Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson opt out, Sarkisian has plenty of weapons to slice through a less-than-stellar Washington defense

Rating: 3 Units

These 2 powers meet for the 8th time; first since '11, & 5th in a bowl, including the '00 Orange, when the Oklahoma Sooners (+10) beat the Florida Sate Seminoles 13-2, for the National Championship (Stoops' first year). By the way, the 'Noles entered that one with a 42-10 ppg edge. This makes it 26 straight bowl years for the Sooners (4-6 SU, 5-5 ATS L10), while the Sems entered TY off 4 consecutive losing seasons. But 18 returning starters have turned it around, with a 5-0 windup (43.6 ppg), ranking 13th & 14th in total "O" & "D". Last 3 of Okies' 6 losses have come by just 3 pts, but cannot hide a "D" which ranks 120th in the land. 'Noles!

Rating: 2 Units

For P.J. Fleck, it was also a tale of two cities, especially on offense, as they averaged 543 YPG in their first four games of the season and 335 YPG in their last eight. However, his stop unit held up their end of the bargain, finishing 5th in the nation in Team Defense. Still, we feel this number is a bit too high, since Syracuse is 13-3-1 SU and 13-4 ATS in bowl games since 1988. For head coach Dino Babers, there will be some adjustments with OC Robert Anae leaving for NC State, but quarterbacks’ coach Jason Beck has been promoted to the position after doing a great job overseeing QB Garrett Schrader this season. Besides that, the most interesting match-up at Yankee Stadium will be the running backs, with Sean Tucker recording his second straight 1,000-yard season for the Orange and Minnesota’s Mohamed Ibrahim notching over 100 in each of his first 11 games. QB Tanner Morgan was always the weak link on the Gopher offense, but with Athan Kaliakmanis taking over, Minny should be in good shape. Finally, here is an obscure fact you might consider: Bowl favorites off a win of 7 or more points are 0-6 ATS on Thursdays.

Rating: 2 Units

A 1-4 finish with losses to LSU, Alabama, Arkansas and rival Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl showed Lane Kiffin he still has plenty to accomplish in Oxford. Bowlers coming off 3 SU losses are 13-3 SU and 12-4 ATS versus a foe off back-to-back SUATS wins. Conversely, TTRR enters on a 3-0 SUATS win skein to close the season. That’s the good news. The bad news is, like a grim reaper, that bowlers coming in on 3-0 SUATS win skein are 9-27 SU and 8-28 ATS when facing an opponent coming off a SU favorite loss. Worse, the Techsters were outgained in all three of the wins, and not to pile on, Texas Tech is just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 bowl games.

Rating: 2 Units

We feel like this is a lean to the Heels, since the underdog is 7-0-2 ATS in Tar Heels/Pac-12 contests and conference title game losers are 8-2 ATS as double-digit bowl dogs. However, be aware that UNC is 0-4 SUATS in bowl games when they allow more than 25 points. Oregon’s recovery from that pounding they took from Georgia in the opener was remarkable, but the campaign lost its luster after losing to Washington in November and a total collapse against the Beavers in the Civil War finale. That drives us into a take here.

Rating: 3 Units

Kansas had a brilliant 5-0 start but lost 6 of their last seven games after the tough Big 12 schedule kicked in (4th toughest schedule in the nation). The Razorbacks had an even tougher row to hoe, with opponents sporting a combined win percentage of 62.4%, which was the country’s second-toughest slate. Keep in mind that when two .500 bowl teams meet like this, the underdog is 0-5 ATS if coming off consecutive losses. That said, we feel that the combination of facing such an extremely tough schedule and coming off an upset loss fi gures to bring the Razorbacks in fully focused here. Across the fi eld, the Jayhawks are bowling for the fi rst time since 2008 and are just happy not to be home for the holidays. The future is bright for both teams with the two quarterbacks both returning next season, but as for today, we think this game has the look of a serious crushing written all over it.

Rating: 3 Units

Blue Devils were 3-1 ATS and ITS (In The Stats) versus fellow bowlers this season. On the flip side, the Knights went just 4-3 this season after a 5-1 start, and limp into bowl season following a beating in the AAC title game, losing to Tulane 45-28 while allowing 648 yards of offense. Teams who won a bowl game last year straight up as underdogs of a TD or more are 14-28 ATS when coming off an ATS loss. These two schools meet for the first time, and the coaching match-up today is intriguing: veteran Gus Malzahn has taken his teams to the post-season in all 11 years at the helm, while Elko and his players are finding a completely new experience ahead of them. We look for the Dukies to complete a dream season with a victory.

Rating: 2 Units

All indications are that senior Chase Wolf (just 31 passes thrown) will start in place of Graham Mertz for the Badgers. That brings this match-up down to defense, where Wisconsin has always been strong – their 3rd ranked overall defense in games versus fellow bowlers this season has held 3 foes to season low yardage in 2022. Both teams present good numbers here, including Mike Gundy’s 15-8-1 ATS record off a SU favorite loss and 12-5 spread mark off back-to-back losses. He has also covered the number in six straight bowl games. Meanwhile, Wisky is 8-2 ATS as a bowler versus a foe coming off SUATS loss, and Big Ten bowlers are 22-12 ATS against Big 12 bowlers, including 5-0 ATS when coming off a SU favorite loss. Badgers get the win in their 21st straight bowl appearance.

Rating: 2 Units

For the Pirates, fifth-year senior QB Holton Ahlers completed 67.1 percent of his passes this season for 3,408 yards, tossed 23 touchdowns compared to fi ve picks, and he also rushed for 5 TDs. The Pirates will not have NFL prospect TE Ryan Brown for this game, as he has opted out to prepare for the draft, but Ahlers will not be without his top two targets: wide receiver Isaiah Winstead recorded 82 catches for 1,012 yards, while C.J. Johnson will enter the bowl game 67 yards away from his first 1,000-yard receiving campaign. The Chanticleers’ rough finish may be of concern to some, but it might work to their advantage, as conference title game losers are 8-2 ATS as double-digit bowl dogs. Take the points

Rating: 2 Units

Looking back, we realize that the Aggies go from the top of the mountain after capturing the Mountain West title and winning the Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl game to this minor bowl game. Their star player this season was speedy RB Calvin Tyler, Jr, who rushed for over 1,000 yards and 7 TDs. Keep in mind that Mountain West bowl teams are 5-0 SUATS against the AAC and Anderson is 4-1 ATS himself on the road versus AAC foes. We don’t figure them to win this game, but the points are simply too good to pass.

Rating: 2 Units

Bulls were a “mission team” in 2022 after last season’s 4-8 effort snapped a three-year bowl skein. Following an 0-3 start, they went on to win their next 5 games before hitting the skids again with another 3-game losing streak. They literally rallied back with a late 23-22 win over Akron to cement this bid, a game that was postponed by the 6 feet of snow that fell on Buffalo in mid-November’s monumental storm, then rescheduled due to its importance for the Buffalo program. Comparing spread records this season versus bowl teams, Buffy was 5-1 ATS, while GSU was 1-4 ATS against bowlers. Our money is on the Bulls

Rating: 2 Units

Like NMSU, the Bee Gees closed like a racehorse, winning four of their six games to earn a bowl bid for the first time since 2015. They dropped 4-touchdown losses early in the season to UCLA and Mississippi State, but once MACtion got underway, the Falcons went 6-2 in conference play. To be quite honest, if you look at the statistical ranking of the Falcons, you might be surprised to find out that they actually qualified for a bowl game, since the Bee Gees rank 105th in offense and 106th in the nation on D. We also look at Kill’s excellent record versus MAC foes: 20-7 SU and 16-10-1 ATS, including 18-2 SU if that opponent is .500 or below. With that, we’ll look for the Aggies to notch a win in only their second bowl game since 1960.

Rating: 2 Units

Aztecs (7-5) were two different teams this year -- one before Mississippi State transfer Jalen Mayden took over at quarterback and another after he got the job from Virginia Tech transfer Braxton Burmeister. Prior to Mayden's insertion, San Diego State went 2-3 and averaged just 19 points per game with an inefficient passing attack. With Mayden running the offense, the Aztecs posted a 5-2 mark and scored 23 points per game. Mayden has completed 62.9 percent of his passes for 1,721 yards and 10 touchdowns, giving the offense some big-play potential it didn't have in recent years. He has thrown seven interceptions. Aztecs coach Brady Hoke said the bowl trip is a reward for his team and also a chance to win the last game of the year. To cap it off, MTSU was mugged in games against fellow bowlers this season (0-3 SUATS and In The Stats). 

Rating: 2 Units

The Tigers finished strong after getting thumped by the Vols, and an earlier October win on the road at South Carolina looks even better now when you consider that the Gamecocks beat both Tennessee and Clemson in their fi nal two games. Unfortunately, SEC bowlers coming off a SU underdog win are 3-9-2 ATS versus a foe coming off a SUATS loss, and Mizzou is 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS as a bowler coming off a win. Mizzou HC Eliah Drinkwitz is also 1-5 SUATS against an opponent coming off a SUATS loss if he has the better record.

Rating: 2 Units

It has been a wildly uneven year in Lafayette, LA, but give props to Coach Michael Desormeaux for holding together the shards left by Billy Napier’s departure to Florida. UH triumphs if Clayton Tune is hitting the scales and avoiding the sour notes. The Cougars QB has 37 TD passes, tied with the top two Heisman candidates – winner Caleb Williams and third-place CJ Stroud, but has thrown a pick in his last four games. UL’s offense is more balanced, having 15 players with 100 or more scrimmage yards this season, tied with SMU and Texas Tech. Discipline (sometimes) and emotion versus balance makes for an intriguing matchup.

Bowl Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

The military teams take advantage of success, going a combined 29-9 ATS when coming off a win. AFA is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 bowl games and in addition to being stingy at giving the ball back, they carry the top overall defense in the country. This bowl game is to honor the military and they give back by going 6-3 ATS in the last 9, including 4-1 ATS as the dog. Meanwhile, Da Bears are a sub-standard 0-3 SUATS as single digit favorites while the Big 12 has been small ATS versus military teams, going 0-3. If you are a trend lover, BU is 3-14 ATS on Thursdays plus this game is at TCU’s home field, where Baylor has lost five of the last seven, both SU and ATS. If that’s not a strong persuader, consider that Playing on any greater than .667 college military team in a bowl game that scored fewer than 50 points in its last game if they are not off a loss and their team’s overall net Yards Per Rush is greater than 1.0. is 17-0 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 2 Units

WKU has scored 45+ points in four bowl games since 2014, most in FBS during that span. WKU QB Austin Reed, who turned down new Louisville Head Coach Jeff Brohm’s request to transfer, meaning Reed is returning to the Hilltoppers with his 4,247 pass yards and 36 TDs. While Reed may not know this, sticking with Coach Tyson Helton can pay off, since Tyson often puts foes in a corner, going 18-5 SU and 16-6-1 ATS vs. a team off an ATS defeat. WKU is generally good at putting money in people’s pockets with a 3-0 SUATS mark versus the devilish .666-win percentage types and 13-2 ATS as a dog vs. the Fun Belt. Meantime, South Alabama is seeking the first bowl win in program history. The Jaguars are a toothless 0-2 SUATS in bowl games and have also struggled versus C-USA, going 1-3 SUATS against .500 or better.

Rating: 2 Units

Toledo won the MAC for Head Coach Jason Candle but MACtion seems to run out of steam after November. Toledo is 3-9 ATS in bowl games since 2002, including 1-7 ATS off a win of 7 or more points. MAC Bowlers are 6-28 SU and 8-25-1 ATS vs. foes coming off a loss. Liberty has a much more distinguished post-season history, going 3-0 SUATS, 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS versus MAC opponents since joining FBS. 

Rating: 2 Units

Armed with one of the top defenses in the country, Marshall will take on a surprisingly improved UConn team in the Myrtle Beach Bowl on Monday in Conway, S.C. UConn (6-6) is bowl-eligible for the first time since 2015 under first-year coach Jim Mora Jr. Before losing their regular season finale to Army, the Huskies had a stretch of five wins in six games, capped off by an upset victory over then-ranked No. 19 Liberty. And who did the Huskies play in that 2015 bowl game? Marshall.  The Thundering Herd (8-4) have been a regular attendee during bowl season recently. This will be the 11th time in the past 14 seasons that Marshall has gone bowling -- a streak that began in 2009 and stretches across three head-coaching tenures. The Herd have lost their last three bowl games, though, and are looking for their first postseason win since 2018.  To clinch this pick consider that Huskies are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game while Thundering Herd are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in December.

Rating: 2 Units

History is not riding with the Ponies as they are 0-5 ATS as a front-runner plus 0-3 SU all-time in this series. SMU is also 0-4 ATS versus foes off an ATS win, and 0-6 UNDER on a neutral fi eld. It’s Mustangs’ boss Rhett Lashlee’s first bowl game as a head coach, and first timers are 16-32 ATS vs. teams coming off a win. BYU is 5-0 ATS as a dog off three wins and 5-1 ATS versus a .500 or better AAC team not coming off consecutive wins, plus Cougars head coach Kalani Sitake is a stern 16-7 ATS when a dog of 12 points or less. He will be without star RB Lopini Kotoa but is holding out hope his number one QB Jaren Hall can play on a bum ankle. Finally, BYU is 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS vs. foes with an identical record, including 5-0 when the Cougars are coming off a SUATS win.

Rating: 3 Units

If UF finds the red zone, they’ll find the nation’s best red zone defense but that’s about the best number for Beavers fans because the gambling numbers favor the orange and blue. OSU West is 0-4 SU vs SEC foes, 1-4 SUATS in bowls against a team not coming off a double-digit loss. The Pac-12 is 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS vs. the SEC… and it gets a little worse for Oregon State. UF is 5-1 ATS versus Pac-12 teams, all as the underdog, and 7-2 ATS as a bowler not favored by 7 or more points. First year head coaches are 10-4 ATS as a double-digit dog and UF coach Billy Napier is 17-6 ATS as a puppy backed up by a powerful 8-0 ATS run in the last eight. The Pac-12 also limps in with a 15-34-1 ATS record as a bowl favorite. This is a classic conflict of favorable numbers for UF, but the other team is favored and facing a QB that’s never played a meaningful down since his senior year at Chaparral High in Scottsdale, AZ. And our head coach is 17-5 ATS as a dog.

Rating: 2 Units

Trojans held three teams to season low yardage this year. Troy’s defensive 11 held the seven bowl teams they faced to 17 PPG/326 YPG. They’re 5-0 ATS when receiving points and after all isn’t receiving what the holiday season is all about? UTSA struggles defensively against bowlers, 29 PPG/409 YPG and has yet to win a bowl game, going 0-3 and that includes not covering once. Troy’s first year head coach Jon Sumrall knows his Trojans have won their last four bowl games. 

Rating: 2 Units

Trent Dilfer is perhaps the most maligned winning QB in Super Bowl history fairly or unfairly, but after a strong stint coaching HS ball in Tennessee, he’s the coach in waiting for UAB. Bryant Vincent has this bowl assignment, and his Blazers have gone 3-0 ATS in bowls since 2018. Yes, the RedHawks are 4-0 ATS in bowls since 2011, but this year against bowl teams M-OH has had its problems going 0-5 SU, 1-4 SUATS and ITS (In The Stats). Chuck Martin’s Miamians are also a scary 3-8 In the Stats this season and against fellow bowlers are an average -131. Yecch. Toss in the MAC’s inability to conquer C-USA in the bowls, going 5-18 SU and 7-15-1 ATS, and it’s hard to get excited about Miami winning. Meanwhile, the Blazers are a hearty 15-7-1 ATS as double-digit chalk, including 3-0 ATS in non-conference contests. UAB has also held four foes to season-low yardage, and Martin seems to be conservative in bowl games for some odd reason. Blazers’ players who plan on coming back next season will be very invested in putting on a good show for the incoming Dilfer, and motivation is perhaps the biggest non-numerical reason to pick with or against a team during bowl season.

Rating: 2 Units

Ken “Nine Lives” Niumatalolo and the Midshipmen, who are staring down the barrel of their third straight losing campaign. Even so, a win against Army can cure a lot of ills, and Navy backers appear to be on board, moving the line from Army -1.5 to pick in just a few hours – not that strange considering the Mids have gone 16-4 SU in the last 20 meetings while being made the favorite 17 times. However, note that the team with the better win percentage in this series (Army this season), is 11-1 SU and 8-4 ATS since 1980 in games in which Air Force has already claimed the CIC trophy. Then there’s the matter of the Black Knights’ 17-13 loss to Navy in 2021 as 7-point chalk. Revenge is the ultimate weapon in military battles, especially for those seeking it against foes sporting a losing record, as they’ve gone 15-5 SU and 13-7 ATS in this role in these military matters since 1995, including 5-0 ATS for those teams who score 34 or more points in their previous game. The series has also seen Army go 7-1 ATS with revenge when coming off a win, including 4-0 ATS the last four years.

Rating: 3 Units

We’re sure those who watched the Wolverines in the second half last week have already plunked their money down on the maize-and-blue, but we think the Boilers deserve more than just a passing glance. Purdue is 3-0 in its last 3 Neutral Site games, 7-1 ATS as conference dogs of 8 or more points, 6-1 ATS off a double-digit Big Ten road win, and 4-1 ATS versus undefeated conference opponents. Word out of Michigan is that RB Corum is not expected to play, as Harbaugh plans to save him for the playoffs. But even without him, the Wolverines rushed for 254 yards against Ohio State, a stat that does not bode well for the Boilers considering they are just 2-5 ATS this season in games where they’ve lost the overland battle. However, before going with Michigan know that head coach Jeff Brohm brings a 28-14 ATS career dog log into this contest, including 7-1 ATS versus foes coming off an ATS win of 20+ points. And while a Buckeye letdown did not occur in this game last year when Michigan destroyed Iowa, we’d be shocked if it doesn’t rear its head here today. In what marks the first meeting for these two programs since 2017, we look for the Wolverines to fall to 3-10 ATS when playing off a SU road dog win. 

Rating: 2 Units

Tigers were clearly looking ahead to tonight’s title game against the Bulldogs when they were undressed by Texas A&M, 38-23. That defeat ended a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS run for 1st-year head coach Brian Kelly and his Bengals, and the early money has poured in on defending national champ Georgia. It’s important to remember, though, that Kelly is 18-7 ATS as a dog when coming off a loss in his CFB career, including 11-3 ATS versus .700 or greater opponents. Solid history for LSU in this series of late with a 4-0-1 ATS skein in progress, plus the bayou boys have cashed 7 straight tickets in Neutral Site games. Kelly’s heroes are also 8-3 ATS as dogs of 7 or more points while Georgia is just 1-4 SU and 0-4-1 ATS when seeking revenge in this series (Tigers took down Dawgs, 37-10, in 2019 SEC title bout).

Rating: 2 Units

So, even though Boise clobbered Fresno this year, 40-20, we know that the wild horses are a whimpering 1-7 ATS after scoring 40 or more points, plus 1-4 ATS in Mountain West Conference title games. We also know that Fresno stands 4-0 ATS in MWC championship contests, with three of those tickets coming against the Broncos. And since BSU has won two straight against the west coasters, its poor 2-5 ATS record at home versus a foe seeking double revenge comes into play here against the Bulldogs’ outstanding 7-1-1 ATS record when playing with double revenge. To cap it off, Fresno's HC has a penchant for getting his teams up in double revenge situations, going 10-5 SU and 9-5-1 ATS in his career, including 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS with his current school. 

Rating; 2 Units

Despite losing starting QB Adrian Martinez on the first series of the game, the Wildcats bounced back to take a 28-10 lead at the half under backup QB Will Howard. Unfortunately for KSU, Howard and a half dozen other major K-State contributors were felled by injury in the second stanza, and the Horned Frogs took advantage by scoring the final 28 points of the game. Howard looks ready to go here, and his team has gone 4-1 ATS of late in this series, 4-0 ATS the last four Neutral Site games, and 5-2 ATS with single conference revenge. That goes hand in hand with TCU’s 0-4 ATS failure in Neutral Site games, and its 3-6 ATS mark as Big 12 road chalk of 6 or fewer points. How much longer can the Froggies keep their unbeaten streak going while the pressure increases exponentially with every passing week?

Rating: 3 Units

Pac12 hardly lacks for excitement, with barnburners the rule, rather than the exception, including this year's regular season meeting. The Trojans have moved to the #4 spot in the nation, with a win here cementing a slot in the national playoffs. Just a single loss, & that by a mere pt, trailing only Tennessee & Ohio St in scoring, as transfer QB Williams is now 34-3. And, as has been the case all season, Troy has the Top Turnover ratio in the land, now at +23. Four times the charm for USC here.

Rating: 2 Units

The Chaparral Birds enter on a 9-game win streak following a 1-2 start, but have cashed a ticket in just four of those games. The fact that UTSA has been double-digit chalk in six of its last seven contests makes the opening line of -8.5 look mighty appealing against a North Texas team that lost on this field six weeks ago, 31-21. However, sub .600 teams in conference championship games seeking same-season revenge are 6-0 ATS since 2000. The Eagles also own a profitable 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS mark against foes who surrender 22 or more PPG this season. While the game host’s 7-2 and 6-3 ATS success in C-USA title bouts points to the Roadrunners, consider that same-season revengers taking on opponents coming off a win who scored 34-plus points in their last contest, are 10-2 ATS since 2010. That, and UNT’s 22-point demolition of UTSA last year – Traylor’s worst loss with the Roadrunners – is enough to put us on the dudes from Denton tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

The host in this series has covered seven of the last eight meetings. The loss of USC running back Travis Dye in the Colorado game was every bit as sad and unfortunate as the injury Hendon Hooker suffered in Tennessee’s game on Saturday, but senior Austin Jones stepped in ably against UCLA, rushing for 120 yards and 2 TDs. In addition, All-American WR Jordan Addison returned from his own knee injury with a bang, catching 11 balls for 178 yards. The 13th-ranked Irish looked unstoppable while shutting out Boston College last week, and smoked Clemson two weeks earlier, but remember, they have losses this season to both Marshall and Stanford.

Upset of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

App State is 2-7 ATS in lined games, 1-7 ATS as a favorite (!) and 0-4 ATS when coming off a victory. Georgia Southern is the opposite going 4-0 ATS in regular season finales and a sturdy 5-1 ATS in last home games. Finally, Eagles Coach Helton has never lost four straight (even though Southern Cal die-hards thought he lost every game there) and is 6-2 SUATS when coming off consecutive losses.

Big-12 Game of the Mont

Rating: 5 Units

Iowa State has out-yarded each of their last five opponents, including a 422-246 margin over Texas Tech in last week’s 14-10 loss. They have also held eight opponents to a season-low – or 2nd low – yardage this year, and that is just enough to apply the slip-knot on the TCU noose. When you consider that the Clones are 5-1 ATS in this series over the last six matchups (3-0 ATS as a dog), and that they own a 6-0 ATS mark as conference road dogs, you’ll find your winner. Finally, playing on any CFB dog off two losses, both as a favorite, if they allow 21 or fewer PPG and they are facing an undefeated opponent is 13-2-1 since 1980.

Rating; 2 Units

Oregon is only 8-15 ATS in this series when the Beavers are playing with revenge, including 1-5 ATS as a single-digit favorite. Oregon State has been formidable of late as a home dog of 7 or fewer points, going 6-1 ATS the last seven. Even more amazing is the fact that OSU has gone 9-1 SU and 9-0 ATS in its last ten home games, plus the Beavers have held their last three foes to season-low yards. Finally, head coach Jonathan Smith is 19-11 ATS in games where the Beavers are seeking revenge, including 6-0 SUATS the last six games.

Rating: 2 Units

Freeze loves to catch fish in a barrel with hand grenades: 18-2 SU and 14-3 ATS versus sub .333 opponents by an average of 46-13. This includes a perfect 7-0 SUATS in lined games. This batch of ricin-infused tea also features an evil 18-6-1 ATS mark against teams coming off a SUATS loss, which is a specialty of all college football teams coming out of New Mexico. NMSU is 0-10 ATS off a dog loss while playing a foe off a SU favorite loss and 1-11 ATS in the last 12 Game 11’s.

Rating: 3 Units

Arkansas head coach Sam Pittman’s goal is to avoid the pangs of a letdown versus Mizzou, but the fact is the Hogs bring a 4-11 SU and 2-13 ATS record into this contest when coming off a SU upset win, including 0-7 ATS versus foes coming off a win. Sitting at 5-6 in their final regular season game, the Tigers are a ‘Shaky 16’ team this week as it’s win or you’re not in time for Missouri. The good news for MU head coach Eli Drinkwitz, who just signed a contract extension several weeks ago, is the host in this series is 7-1 ATS. Drinkwitz also stands 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS versus a foe coming off a SU underdog win, as well as 3-0 SUATS versus sub .560 foe coming off a SU underdog win. Finally consider that Missouri is 9-3 ATS in Last Home Games versus foes coming off a win, including 8-0 ATS versus foes off a win of fewer than 20 points.

Rating: 2 Units

Simply expect the unexpected when Tars perform. Led GaTech 17-0 in 2nd, but no pts thereafter for UNC's 4th-ranked "O" vs GT's 95th-ranked "D". 'Pack on 1-7 ATS slide, & winless ATS away. In addition, 'Pack is 2-9 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games, and 2-9 ATS as conference dogs of 8 or fewer points. Can't run, & Finley not the answer. Maye & Co bounce back.

Rating: 2 Units

BU is a perfect 8-0 ATS when coming off a loss and its opponent is coming off a win. The Bears are also 7-1 ATS when coming off a home loss, plus they outgained TCU, 501-442, in last week’s last-second loss to the charmed Frogs. For more anti-Longhorn ammunition, defending Big 12 champs like Baylor are 10-5 ATS when coming off two losses. Yes, the Texas offense has looked downright scary lately, scoring 34.3 PPG in its last six outings, but the Longhorns are 4-8 SUATS in LHGs, including 0-4 SUATS when coming off a double-digit win.

Rating: 2 Units

While the visiting Bulldogs haven’t done much better down the stretch, a litany of strong trends support Mississippi State in this battle for the 3rd spot in the SEC West between these intrastate rivals. While Ole Miss owns the better record overall at 8-3 / 4-3 compared to the 7-4 / 3-4 Bulldogs, the Rebels are just 1-6 ATS as conference favorites of fewer than 7 points, and 1-5 ATS in LHGs. Across the field, MSU head coach Mike Leach is backed by an 8-0 ATS mark when playing with double conference revenge, a 10-1 ATS record after an unlined home game, and a 6-1 ATS skein as a series visitor versus Ole Miss. MSU looks to improve to 5-1 ATS as an SEC dog of 8 or fewer points.

Today is a huge double revenger for the Ducks, who lost last season 38-7 at Utah and then 38-10 in the Pac-12 title game two weeks later. The fact that Oregon is 23-1 outright in its last 24 home games, and is coming off a home loss. Consider that the Ducks are 5-0 ATS at home with revenge when coming off a home loss since 1996. The Utes are 5-0 ATS as conference road dogs of less than 10 points and it’s always difficult laying points into this team, but it’s justified in this contest. Remember that all 6 of the Utes’ losses over the last two seasons have occurred away from Salt Lake City. Their defense has looked especially vulnerable in several games this season, and the Quack Attack is coming off a 592-yard effort in the loss to Washington last week.

Rating: 2 Units

The Gophers polished off the tarnish of a 3-game losing streak to become Golden again thanks to three straight wins. Not surprisingly their defense is allowing an average of 250 YPG during the run of victories. History lines up against Minnesota though, as only once in the last 15 meetings have they been the betting favorite and in the series Iowa has bullied them, going 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in the last six games. Iowa beat Wisconsin last week with one of their most explosive offensive days this season…146 yards. Iowa is a DIA DIA in this one, too (Dominating Dogs in Action, Doing it Again). 

Rating: 3 Units

A year ago, the spot on this one would have been around the 17-pt margin, or similar. Fact is that the Cadets are once again among the leaders in overland production (#2 behind only Air Force), but among the dregs, defensively, ranking just 71st, with that coming against such powers as Villanova, GeorgiaSt, Colgate, & Monroe, with mighty UMass on the horizon. Their current 3-0 SU/ATS run has lowered the spot on this, much to the delight of their backers. Not only is UConn bowl eligible, but is also a weekly profit producer, covering its last 7 games, the latest in its upset of Liberty, resulting in a +17 pt cover.

Big-10 Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Good numbers for the visitors, though, as they’re 4-0 ATS as double-digit conference road dogs this season, and 6-2 ATS in their last eight run-ins with undefeated conference foes. Michigan counters with a superb 11-1 ATS mark as Big Ten home chalk of less than 20 points, but the Maize-and Blue can’t be trusted to cash a ticket in their final home game, as they’ve gone 2-6 ATS in the last eight such affairs. And let’s face it, Harbaugh will work from a strictly “vanilla” playbook today to avoid tipping off Ohio State’s Ryan Day. Meanwhile, with two rough defenses doing battle today – and Ohio State on deck for Michigan – points could be hard to come by. Finally, playing against any 10-0 college football double-digit favorite in Game Eleven if they are facing a .700 > foe is 16-2-2 ATS since 1980.

Big-12 Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Unit

We realize TCU is 12-1 ATS in LRGs (Last Road Games), but they weren’t undefeated then and carrying the weight of being in the position they are in this year. Meanwhile, some of the numbers look very good when studying Baylor: 5-0 ATS in the 2nd of back-to-back home games, 7-1 ATS after scoring fewer than 10 points in previous game, and 3-0 ATS with double conference revenge (Bears lost 30-28 as 7.5-point favorites at TCU last season, one of only two defeats they were dealt in 2021). Meanwhile, back to the Horned Frogs, whose numbers are less-shiny: 1-6 ATS versus double conference revenge and 2-12 ATS after playing Texas. It is extremely strange to imagine, but the Frogs can possibly afford a loss and still make the College Football Playoff – but why take the chance? One thing we know for sure is Baylor is 13-1 ATS as a dog with conference revenge versus a foe coming off a SUATS win, including 8-0 ATS at home

Rating: 2 Units

SMU is 1-5 ATS record as a dog of 7 or fewer points, and is 2-10 ATS playing in the second of back-to-back conference road games. Right on cue we see that Tulane is 6-1-1 ATS in the second of consecutive home games and a register-ringing 11-2 ATS as chalk of less than 6 points. It will be interesting to see how the Wave behaves following last week’s downer versus UCF. We feel a bounce back is in order.

Rating: 2 Units

Hard to believe head coach Thomas Hammock is winding up his 4th season with the Huskies. After last year’s 9-5 finish, NIU – who ranked No. 8 nationally in Returning Player Production and welcomed 18 starters back – was expecting more of the same in 2022. After ten games, Northern Illinois is just 3-7 SU. Consider that Miami Ohio is 8-0 ATS coming off a SU loss as a dog, and 6-1 ATS off a loss versus a foe off a win. You should also know Northern Illinois is a money-burning 1-7 ATS in the last eight get-togethers with Miami, and 0-7 ATS coming off an outright away win.

Rating: 3 Units

The Frogs are now at No. 4 in the nation, reaching 9-0 for the first time since 2010, a 13-0 season that ended with a Rose Bowl victory and No. 2 national ranking. To be honest, we’ve had these Frogs on our fade list often this season and have been eating crow trying to explain their uncanny ability to overcome second-half deficits during this campaign in four of their wins. However, to seal the deal, consider that 9-0 or greater underdogs are 11-2-1 ATS during the regular season when not coming off an ATS win of more than 11 points, including 6-0 ATS as a dog of 4 or more points.

Rating: 2 Units

MSU ranks 128th in rushing, averaging 80.7 yards per game and 3.5 yards per carry. Their dink and dunk passing attack averages just 6.5 yards per pass attempt, and they haven’t scored more than 17 points in any of their three losses. So do we think Georgia is on upset alert? Absolutely not. And if not, do we think Mississippi State tops that 17-point mark? Maybe if there’s a letdown. But Georgia doesn’t need to score much to cover even in that event. Mississippi State is vulnerable to the run, which Georgia will pound at, leading to timely downfield passing on occasion. Georgia has been held under 30 points just twice, further lending confidence to this spread.

Rating: 3 Units

Saban is 13-0 SU and 10-3 ATS since 2011 versus foes with a better record, including 5-1 ATS during the regular season, and don’t forget about the Saban’s 27-2 SU career mark in games against former assistants. So how is it the 2-loss Tide is installed as a double-digit favorite in this contest? For the answer, consider that playing on any AP Preseason No. 1 college team as a favorite off a SU favorite loss in their previous game is g 29-15 ATS mark (66%) in these games since 1980. Put them up against quality opposition (greater than .600) and they shoot up to 20-3 SU and 19-4 ATS in this role. Better yet, let these Preseason No. 1 squads enter this same game with a .900 or fewer win percentage on the season, they ratchet up to 16-0 SU and 15-1 ATS.

ACC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Louisville has quietly stitched together a decent season after a terrible start and may be saving Scott Satterfi eld’s job. Satterfi is a solid 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS against teams coming off a spread loss of 19 or more points. UL is 4-0 SUATS in their last four. To tap it off playing against  any CFB home favorite of more than 4 points from Game Nine out coming off its first loss of the year as a favorite of 4 or more points if they are off a DD ATS loss and are facing a foe who allows 20.1 or fewer PPG is 11-0 ATS since 1982.

SEC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Arkansas is 13-6 SUATS at home when coming off a SU favorite loss to a conference foe, including 3-0 SUATS as a dog of fewer than 8 points. Also, Sam Pittman is 19-9-1 ATS overall in his career with the Hogs, including 8-1 ATS as a dog of 16 or fewer points. In addition, you need to realize that LSU is a horrendous 2-7 ATS as a road favorite of less than 15 points while coming off back-to-back home games. Also, road favorites who upset Alabama the previous week are also just 2-7 ATS in the following game since 1980 when coming off three consecutive wins, including 0-5 ATS when they own a win percentage of greater than .750 on the season. Sure, Jayden Daniels has improved greatly, as has the Tiger defense, but Pittman’s crew will be up to the challenge. Finally, Arkansas is 5-0 ATS when coming off a SU favorite loss in this series.

Rating: 2 Units

Pirates are gaining tons of respect from Vegas these days, and rightfully so. They are 7-2 ITS, winning the stats by an average +69 net YPG, and they bring a 10-4 ATS road dog log into this contest under head coach Mike Houston, including 6-0 ATS against foes coming off a loss. At 6-3 / 3-2, East Carolina trails the Bearcats by a full game on both sides of the ledger, but they arrive with momentum from a 3-game win streak, including last week’s hard-fought 27-24 decision over BYU at Provo. Cincy head coach Luke Fickell is likely freaking out, riding a current 0-4-1 ATS streak entering this contest.

Rating: 3 Units

Things have surely changed in Boiseland, with the home team moving to the fore, which is in direct opposition to the former norm in games involving the Broncos, which saw the visitor as the constant play, rewarding the "smart money" movers. Check the visitor with ATS logs of 8-4 in '15, 9-4 in '16, 10-3 in '17, & 9-3 in '21, regardless of the spread. This season, however the host in Boise games stands at 5-1-1 ATS. Not only that, but note Boise at a 174-56 pt edge in its last 5 home games, while ranking 2nd in total "O". Cougars are on runs of 0-7 & 3-13 ATS of late. 

Rating: 3 Units

Tennessee defeated two other undefeated teams this season and they’ll look to complete a three-game SUATS hat trick here. Unfortunately, they are 0-5 SUATS versus 7-0 or greater opponents. Granted, the Vols lead the SEC in turnover margin (+8) and bring a 5-1 ATS mark into this battle royale as conference road dogs of 10 or less points, but as we’ve seen time and again in games of this magnitude, defense rules. That’s where Georgia brings the better of it, by 10 points and 131 YPG. Meanwhile, the Dawgs raced out to a 28-3 lead before surviving a second-half scare in last week’s 42-20 win over Florida. They are 15-0 SU after ‘Cocktail Parties’, including 8-0 SU and 7-0 ATS when favored by fewer than 20 points. As expected, the Dawgs own an exceptionally glossy stats dossier: No. 1 in the land in Red Zone Offense and No. 2 in Red Zone Defense (think about that), as well as No. 3 in Pass Defense Efficiency, No. 4 in Time of Possession (Vols are No. 124) and Overall Defense (Vols are No. 82). They are also allowing less than a point per game in the first quarter and Kirby Smart is 36-7 SU and 30-13 ATS as a favorite of fewer than 20 points, including 8-0 SU versus undefeated opposition. 

Big-12 Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

We will find out if the maligned OU defense will continue their Cyclones form or revert to the team that was strafed for 41, 55, 49 and 42 points prior to visiting Ames, Iowa last weekend. If the Sooners can’t stop Baylor frosh RB Richard Reese, who despite his 5’9” stature, has 12 TDs and 791 ground yards, the game will be a Bear market. Oklahoma is a depressing 0-5 ATS at home versus a team coming off consecutive SUATS wins. To cap it off, Baylor is 20-1 ATS as a conference dog versus an opponent coming off a SUATS win.

Rating: 3 Units

ODU is 4-12 SU and 5-11 ATS versus teams .400 or above. Marshall hit the inevitable speed bump last week versus Coastal Carolina after taking down previously unbeaten James Madison. Oh, they also beat Notre Dame in South Bend this year, too. Defensively the Herd reins in opponents, holding Coastal and JMU to season-low yardages. You can’t make the same claim for ODU. They surrender on average 159 more yards per game than Marshall, who’s ranked 8th in the NCAA at 283 YPG. Yes, we know Marshall is in last place in the Fun Belt East, one game back of ODU, but we think the Herd will rumble, young man rumble over the Monarchs. 

Big-10 Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Boilermaker head coach Jeff Brohm has carved out a ‘good dog, bad favorite’ personality and we’re not about to go against that today, not after Purdue upset the Hawkeyes as 11-point dogs at Iowa last season, meaning a major payback is in order today. With the Boilers now a lousy 1-4 ATS at home in this series, and HC of Iowa going 24-14 ATS in his career, including 10-2 ATS when taking single digits and coming off a SUATS win.  To seal the deal, Iowa is 12-5 ATS as a dog with revenge when coming off a SUATS win under head coach Kirk Ferentz, including 8-1 ATS when not coming off a spread win of 13 or more points.

Rating: 2 Units

Oregon State snapped a lengthy drought when the Beavers entered the college football rankings this week for the first time since 2013. Currently out of the rankings is 6-2 Washington, fighting through a 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS slump. Washington  is 0-4 ATS with rest, 0-3 ATS on Weekdays the last two years, and 3-12 ATS off 4+ ATS losses. Oregon State is 15-4 ATS in this series, including 11-2 ATS with revenge, and 7-0 ATS off a home win of 21 or more points. Even better, coach Smith chips in with a solid 8-2 ATS record as a conference road dog with revenge

Rating: 3 Units

The Tar Heels’ defensive vulnerability is against the pass, allowing 290.0 yards per game and 18 touchdowns against five interceptions, and while Pittsburgh’s passing attack likely plays up some against that, they simply don’t have the weapons in the passing game to fully exploit an advantage. UNC is equally bad against the run; let’s just call it as it is, their defense is awful. They allow 4.72 yards per carry and 182.3 yards per game on the ground, ranking 109th. That’s absolutely where Pittsburgh will try to attack with star RB Israel Ibanikanda, who has 959 yards (6.1 ypc) and 13 touchdowns to date. There’s a scenario where he puts Pitt on his shoulders, keeps Maye sidelined and limits the Heels’ opportunities. But more likely, UNC can focus on stopping him, stacking boxes, and daring the Panthers to challenge their leaky secondary. That may produce a play or two, but it won’t be sustained. UNC is coming off a bye while Pitt is travelling for the second-straight week, a tough ask for a mediocre team

Upset of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Aggies have won and covered the last three games of this series, but they have gone 9 consecutive FBS games scoring 25 or fewer points – second-longest current streak in the FBS. Things are in crisis mode in College Station, as their fans are not used to seeing three consecutive defeats. Their saving grace is the fact they actually outgained their first FBS foe this season (they’re 1-5 ITS) in last week’s loss to South Carolina. Fisher lost three games in a row once in his career, (in 2011) but won the next game 41-16 at home against Duke. We call for the upset today. To cap it off,  Jimbo Fisher is 14-3 SU at home off consecutive losses, including 2-0 SUATS as a dog.

Rating: 3 Units

TCU has been living  on the razor’s edge lately, and that doesn’t bode well for the  Frogs today as they enter one of college football’s true house  of horrors: Mountaineer Field in Morgantown, West Virginia.  Neither does the Frogs’ 0-4 ATS record away with conference  revenge and their 1-7 ATS failure before playing Texas Tech.  The Mountaineers fare much better, cashing six straight series tickets over the Frogs, and going 10-5 ATS as home dogs versus unbeaten foes, including 3-0 SUATS the last three games and 3-0 ATS with a losing record. Consider that WVU head coach Neal Brown is 6-1 ATS in games versus undefeated foes in which they allow fewer than 30 PPG, including 4-0 SUATS when his team sports a losing record.

Rating: 3 Units

Gabriel returned before Oklahoma’s byeweek against Kansas and was spectacular again, notching 403 passing yards with two TDs and a pick while adding 37 rushing yards and a TD, So the real key for this Sooner team seems to be avoiding teams with good offenses. Their defense doesn’t really fare well in any category, when an opponent can’t score or move the ball with any consistency, they will be a target. And here we have the IowaState Cyclones. ISU can’t score (103rd), can’t rush the ball (122nd), and isn’t efficient (98th in yards per play). They excel at playing slowly, so that’s something. When it’s right, Oklahoma’s offense is fast and explosive, so time of possession likely won’t matter much. Iowa State has lost four straight and to their credit, all of those losses have come within a single score. Of course, if they could score even a little, they’d probably win those games. They have scored more than 25 points just once against FBS opponents and that came against an Ohio team that might have a worse defense than OU. They can’t and won’t win this one. 

ACC Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Notre Dame has been favored in the last eight matchups in this series since 2003 and even covered when a 33-point favorite in 2020. They are 3-1 ATS in the last four, 4-1 ATS away vs foes .800 or better, and a sturdy 9-3 ATS in ACC road games… PLUS a whopping 5-0 SUATS in the last five ACC battles. Meanwhile the state of the Orangemen must be called into doubt after the Clemson crusher, plus the Dome hasn’t always been a warm home to the football program. SU is a horrible 0-4-1 ATS as a home favorite of 3 or fewer points when coming off a conference contest. Finally, ND is 17-6 ATS as a dog versus an opponent coming off a loss, including 10-1 ATS when the Irish are coming off a win of 4 or more points.

Rating: 3 Units

Despite the Frogs’ unbeaten winning streak, they’re just 2-7-1 ATS in their last ten Big 12 battles, and 2-7 ATS as favorites of 7 or fewer points. TCU is also 2-9 ATS in the second of back-to-back home games, 1-4 ATS with conference revenge the last two years, and 1-6 ATS home versus a conference foe with rest. That’s a lot of money burning, folks, and it gets worse when we see that the Wildcats are on a 4-0 ATS skein versus the Frogs, and 5-1 ATS record of late when playing in Fort Worth. We’re not done: K-State is 6-0 ATS in the second of consecutive Big 12 road affairs, and 10-1-1 ATS in the last twelve versus foes playing with conference revenge. Finally, the Wildcats are 6-1 ATS after scoring 10 or fewer points (beat Iowa State, 10-9) and if you think that scoreboard drought will be a problem, the last time Chris Klieman’s crew was held to 10 points, they dropped 41 on Oklahoma the following week. Finally consider that KSU head coach Klieman is 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS against undefeated opponents coming off a win of 3-plus points, including 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS as a dog.

SEC Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Bama’s 40 straight appearances in the Top 5 ends as they fall to No. 6 entering this contest. However, before knee-jerking and deciding to back Bama here, you need to know that Nick Saban is just 6-13 ATS in his CFB head coaching career, including just 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS at home when coming off a SUATS loss and facing an FBS opponent. Mississippi State HC, Mike Leach is 30-15 ATS after a double digit loss, including 15-4 ATS in the last 19 games. Additionally playing against any unrested double-digit conference favorite from Game 7 out off its first loss of the season as a conference favorite of more than 7 points if they’re facing a greater than .333 conference foe off a loss is 15-1 ATS since 1980.

Rating: 3 units

Defensively, Missouri has allowed 26 points or less in four straight, including a near miss at home against Georgia (26-22), and a road trip to Florida, where they fell by seven as double-digit underdogs. QB Brady Cook looks to be evolving, completing 67.7 percent of his passes over the last two weeks, while running backs Nathaniel Peat and Cody Schrader are both averaging at least 5.0 yards per carry, which should play well against Vandy’s 87th-ranked rush defense that’s allowing 4.7 ypc and 10 touchdowns in conference. Missouri is winless in conference, and have to get on track, another reason we should expect max effort from a rested side

Rating; 3 Units

Amazingly OU West is terrible at defending their turf in a triple revenge match, going 0-4 ATS against a foe seeking to finally win one. Oregon is also on shaky ground in this series when coming off an ATS win of 13 or greater, going 0-5 ATS. The Bruins have a large stack of good numbers: 6-1 ATS as dogs of 6 or fewer points, 3-1 ATS off a home dog win – and Chip Kelly’s gambling numbers are even more intimidating. He’s 20-4 SU and 18-6 ATS away off a win as a college coach. Consider as well that 6-0 dogs are 17-5-1 ATS when facing an opponent coming off a win of 10 points or more.

MAC game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

After a slow 0-3 start, the Bulls have kicked their heels and ride a 4-0 SUATS win skein entering this contest. The offense has averaged 36.5 PPG in those four games, while the defense has held its last two opponents to just 7 points apiece. Buffalo in this series is 5-1 ATS of late, including 3-0 ATS at UB Stadium. Buffalo is also 12-4-1 ATS as a home dog, including 5-0-1 ATS versus greater than .700 opposition. Head coach Maurice Linguist, had sunk to 4-11 with the Bulls until they went on their recent 4 game rampage. Buffalo is 7-2 SU and 8-0-1 ATS versus foes coming off a SUATS favorite win. Also, consider that playing on any college football home dog who is 4-0 SUATS in its last four games if they were favored in their last game is  22-9 ATS since 1980, including 20-4 ATS if they are facing a foe coming off consecutive wins..

Rating: 3 Units

FSU is 1-4 ATS at home in a conference revenge game, 1-4 ATS before the Bye week, 2-7 ATS in Game 7.  Tigers haven't posted those eye-popping winning margins as was a weekly happening in the Watson & Lawrence glory years, but just keep getting it done, with QB Uiagalelei improving by the week, standing at a sweet 14/2 TD/INT ratio. Clemson is 4-0 ATS in the last four of this series. Clemson is clearly improving and a groggy bunch of Seminoles hungover from last week is just what the Tigers should munch on to remain unbeaten.

SEC Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

The bottom line is that Brian Kelly will need to do a better job or his one-game deficit in the SEC West will be blowing in the wind. At least he helps himself by bringing along a 21-12 ATS record as a road dog, including 9-1 ATS off an ATS loss of 9 or more points. LSU has also held its own in the last nine series contests with Florida, going 6-2-1 ATS overall and 3-1 SUATS away. New Gators head coach Billy Napier looks to be behind the 8-ball here, as the host team has gone 1-4 ATS in five lined games under Napier this season. Florida also hasn’t fared well of late in home games when playing with SEC revenge, going just 1-4 ATS. Consider finally, that Napier stands 5-11-1 ATS as a conference home favorite, including 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS versus .666 or greater opponents.

Inter-Conference Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

First, BYU in the favorite role at home is 2-6 ATS when the spread is under 6 points. Second, Arkansas is 5-1 ATS as a dog of 6 or less. Third, the Razorbacks are a sharp 4-1 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games. Even better, or worse depending on whom you’re rooting for, a top-notch SEC underdog coming off losses to Bama and Texas A&M finds itself 7-0 SU and 5-0 ATS in this situation. Consider that the Cougars have not faired well versus the SEC going 1-8 ATS versus SEC foes since 1990.

Rating: 2 Units

Penn State has gone 2-0 SUATS so far in road trips this season while Michigan’s sole cover in three home games came against pitiful Connecticut. Penn State is also 4-1-1 ATS as dogs versus an undefeated conference opponent, and head coach James Franklin chips in with a money-making 37-18-1 ATS mark when coming off consecutive wins. Additionally the Lions bring in a 21-4 SU and 17-6-1 ATS record when undefeated, including 14-2-1 ATS when facing winning foes. To Cap it off, Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh is 2-11 ATS in his CFB career in games involving undefeated opponents, including 0-9 ATS the last nine games.

Rating: 3 Units

Texas is a miserable 1-8 ATS as double-digit chalk in conference games. On the flip side, the Cyclones are 6-0 ATS as dogs of 3-plus points when coming off a loss, and following a tough 1-point loss at home against Kansas State last week, the Cyclones suddenly find themselves with their backs to the college bowl wall. That’s where head coach Matt Campbell comes to the rescue, as he is 10-1 ATS as a double-digit dog in conference games, including 10-0 ATS versus .500 or greater foes.

Rating: 3 Units

Ole Miss doesn't have any reason to look past Auburn despite the Tigers' .500 record and struggling offense. The meat of the Rebels schedule awaits them after this game with matchups at LSU, at Texas A&M and finally at home against Alabama. The Rebels need a convincing win against Auburn as they ready for a make-or-break run in the SEC.  Ole Miss's ground game should easily overwhelm Auburn's 62nd ranked rushing defense and the new wrinkle of a solid passing attack will likely be unveiled yet again when Auburn attempts to stack the box. Kiffin has never been known for his modest goals so don't expect the Ole Miss taskmaster to take his foot off the gas in this game.

Rating: 2 Units

SMU is only 1-6 ATS in Weekday games and 1-4 ATS versus opponents with double revenge, but they’re also 0-7 ATS as conference home favorites when coming off consecutive losses. That’s a perfect set-up for Navy’s mind boggling 15-0-1 ATS as a dog off a win versus losing foes.

Rating; 2 Units

Owls are just 1-4 ATS in this series and riding a 0-6 SUATS losing skein in their last six road games. Ugh. Meanwhile, UCF’s program continues to live the high life (nine bowls in last ten seasons), though fans were somewhat disappointed in Gus Malzahn’s 9-4 debut last year after finishing 41-8 the previous four seasons. They were also quite upset when the Knights took the biggest fall in the AP Poll two weeks ago, snapping a 33-week streak of being ranked. However, UCF has won three straight and with an extra week to prepare, should be in a salty mood here tonight. Since they’ve beaten the Owls by 109 points in the last three meetings, we look for more of the same this evening.