Rating: 3 Units

Michigan has put BTA from the start of the season and what it did to Arizona reminded us just how elite this team can be. I don’t want to step in front of this freight train, especially when Michigan is the more talented team in terms of roster. However, I’ve been blindly backing UConn in the tournament for a few years now and it’s paid off. Dan Hurley is 18-1 ATS and SU in the tournament at UConn. The one failed cover came this year against Furman. The one outright loss was a two-point defeat to the champion Florida Gators. UConn has one tournament loss since March 17, 2023. In its last 30 tournament games, UConn is 25-5 ATS and SU. Since 2011, UConn has been 10-1 ATS and 9-2 SU as an underdog in the tournament. The Big Ten also hasn’t won a championship in nearly three decades for what it’s worth. We also need to see the status of Yaxel Lendeborg, as ankle injuries are usually worse the next day. Hurley has placed himself in the conversation of the best college basketball coaches of all time, and coaching matters at this stage. There’s a ton of history that proves UConn shows up in these spots time and time again. We’re talking 15 years. Michigan is the better team on paper and it’s steamrolling. I still want the points.

Rating: 2 Units

The Wildcats hold positional advantages at nearly every spot on the floor, rank higher in rebound margin, lead the nation in free throw attempts, and carry a top-five national profile in both paint points and offensive rebound percentage. That interior profile already disassembled Purdue in the Elite Eight, and Michigan's frontcourt — while impressive — now faces a comparable test without the benefit of opponent foul trouble to bail it out. Sharp money moved to Arizona within minutes of the line opening and has remained there. The public has followed consistently at 53% to 82% of dollars across every tracked entry. This is one of the cleanest consensus reads in the Final Four field.

Rating: 3 Units

I’ve been pounding the table for Illinois all season long but I have to take UConn and the free bucket. This is what UConn does in March and Dan Hurley is 17-1 ATS and SU in his last four NCAA Tournaments. His only loss came against Florida by two points, the same team that won the big dance that season. This is a group of guys who have been there done that and I trust them in these moments more. We’re in the business end of the tournament where nerves can play a role. I want the team that’s been on this stage before. Give me the Huskies and the free bucket.

Rating: 2 Units

Oklahoma got in some trouble in the quarterfinal against Colorado where they won by just 4 points and failed to cover the spread. On the flip side, Baylor played excellent defense in the quarterfinals and held Minnesota into just 48 points en route to an easy 19-point win and is 5-1 against the spread in its last 6 games. They have also been dominating Oklahoma in recent years, having lost only once in their last 10 head-to-head meetings and are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.

NIT Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Illinois State’s outstanding home court form (14-2) and elite defense are certainly legit concerns for an Auburn Tigers team that has struggled on the road (2-8) all season. In my view, Illinois State’s quality defense and home court edge will help keep the Redbirds inside the number (7.5) tomorrow night. For the reasons just noted, I am backing the Illinois State Redbirds plus the points in this game.

Rating: 3 Units

I’ll stick with New Mexico. The Lobos started a bit slowly in their win over Saint Joseph’s but finished strong on 47.5 percent shooting overall. New Mexico added a 38-31 rebounding edge and a 40-32 advantage on points in the paint while holding the Hawks to just 40 percent shooting on defense. The Lobos have scored very well in their three wins during this NIT, posting 84 or more points in each game. As for Tulsa, they utilized a strong first half to eke past Wichita State in their latest win. The Hurricane didn’t shoot well (38.5 percent) but then again neither did the Shockers (37.5 percent). Tulsa had 41.4 percent (12-of-29) from outside though, and added 87.5 percent (21-of-24) at the line. Outside of that the Hurricane got beaten in the paint pretty badly (40-22) and lost the rebounding battle 40-36. Still, Tulsa is scoring well during this tournament with 77 or more points in all three games. We should have a pretty good total in this one.

Rating: 3 Units

The Huskies have only been underdogs once this season. But, they are peaking at the right moment with a big win over Michigan State in the last round. UConn’s defense and outside shooting is coming together at a perfect moment. Duke started the NCAA Tournament with a shock comeback win over No. 16 Siena. The Blue Devils have not played to their potential throughout the postseason, which makes me believe that they are vulnerable against a tough UConn team that consistent plays close games in the Big East. UConn has covered six of their last 10 games coming into this matchup. Duke is 2-4 against the spread during the NCAA Tournament. They are also 4-5 against the spread as a single-digit favorite.

Rating: 2 Units

The Michigan Wolverines enter tomorrow’s contest with the more balanced overall offense and a tempo that consistently forces opponents into uncomfortable possessions. Michigan’s outstanding guard play gives the Wolverines the ability to control the pace of play which should flatten Tennessee’s defensive pressure. I like Michigan to pull away late and cover the number (7.5) here. For the reasons just noted, I am backing the Michigan Wolverines to cover the 7.5 points in this game.

Elite 8 Game of the Week

Rating 5 Units

The Wildcats have the edge in this game because they’re playing well offensively, scoring more than 90 points per game in the tournament, while making over 52 percent of their shots. They do a good job of finding the open man, and they rebound the ball well, grabbing more than 12 offensive rebounds per game, which will give them more scoring chances. They also do a good job of protecting the ball, and won’t give up many easy-scoring chances. The Boilermakers have struggled defensively in the tournament, giving up more than 72 points per game, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Wildcats. Take Arizona to cover the spread.

Rating: 2 Units

In this Iowa vs Illinois Prediction, Illinois is coming as -7 favorites. Both teams have been excellent in the NCAA Tournament so far, as they have won and covered all of their three games played but Iowa was 1-4 both straight up and against the spread in its 5 games before that span. They have a slightly better defense, but Illinois has a superior offense, scoring 9.2 points per game more and have been dominating Iowa historically, having won 9 of their last 10 meetings, including a 6-point road victory earlier this season. Take Illinois and lay the points in this one.

Rating: 3 Units

Iowa State averaged 82.5 points and allowed 65.3 points per game during the regular season. Milan Momcilovic averaged 17.2 points to lead the Cyclones, Joshua Jefferson averaged 16.4 points and a team-high 7.4 rebounds, while Tamin Lipsey averaged 13.3 points with 5.1 assists. The Cyclones also averaged 17.4 assists and 9.1 steals. Iowa State had multiple scorers and enough shooting to punish a help defense. Iowa State’s depth has been even more evident in the tournament. The Cyclones are averaging 95.0 points and allowing 68.5 through two tournament games.

Rating: 2 Units

As for UConn, they didn’t have too many issues with UCLA in their Second Round win, hitting 46.9 percent from the field with just 38.8 percent shooting allowed on defense. The Huskies held a 34-23 rebounding advantage and a 30-20 edge in the paint but did cough up 15 turnovers. UConn is 4-1 in their last five games, scoring 73 or more points in three of those wins. They’ll serve as a formidable challenge for the Spartans.

Rating: 2 Units

Michigan has the edge in size and defense, but Alabama’s scoring ability will keep this within reach. The Crimson Tide have already shown they can reach 90 points against quality opponents, and their pace makes it difficult for opponents to build and hold large leads. Michigan is the more complete team and will control much of the game, but Alabama’s perimeter scoring and depth give the Crimson Tide a way to stay close throughout. Taking the points with Alabama is the better play in a game that should feature plenty of scoring from both sides.

Rating: 2 Units

Sweet 16 Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

The line has moved two full points in the Razorbacks' direction over the past 48 hours, driven by consistent public and dollar-side support that began with sharp opening-night action. A team built around a scorer averaging 30 points per game with two additional weapons now capable of producing 20 does not get spotted nearly a touchdown against any opponent without genuine value attached. Arizona is the better overall team, and Burries and Bradley are legitimate, but the Wildcats have not faced anything resembling Acuff's current form this season. Arkansas has a puncher's chance to win outright and an excellent chance to keep this within single digits.

South Regional Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

I’ll stay with Houston. The Cougars have been quite impressive in the two games of this tournament so far, and they’re essentially playing a home game here. Houston demolished Texas A&M in their last outing thanks to a 42-27 rebounding edge, a 32-20 advantage in the paint and just 34.6 percent shooting allowed on defense. The Cougars are 7-1 in their last eight outings with a nice 69 or more points scored in every one of those games. As for Illinois, they had a great second half against a plucky VCU team, eventually shooting 48.3 percent from the field with 34.8 percent allowed on defense. The Illini added a 40-26 edge on rebounding but did miss a few free throws on 64.7 percent (11-of-17) and had 11 turnovers. Illinois has rolled through their two games pretty easily during this tournament as well, however the ghost of a second-half breakdown in the Big Ten Tournament loss to Wisconsin looms large.

Rating: 2 Units

Both of these teams survived very close games to advance to this round and they are pretty evenly matched, so this should be a great game. Iowa upset Florida on Sunday and they are shooting 49% from the field. Nebraska almost lost on a half court shot against Vanderbilt, but it went in and out and the Cornhuskers survived. Iowa defeated Nebraska 57-52 at home, while Nebraska beat Iowa 84-75 on their home court. I can rely on Nebraska’s offense more than Iowa’s, so give me the Cornhuskers to win here.

Rating: 3 Units

I’ll lean toward Nevada but it’s a coin flip. The Wolf Pack got past Liberty without too much fuss over the weekend, hitting 46.3 percent from the field with an excellent 95 percent (19-of-20) from the free throw line. Nevada added a 38-21 rebounding edge and just 40.4 percent shooting allowed on defense. The Wolf Pack have gone 5-1 in the last six games, scoring 73 or more points in every one of those wins. As for Auburn, they shot a very nice 50 percent from the field in their win over Seattle U, but did give up 51.7 percent shooting on the other side. The Tigers had a 34-22 edge on points in the paint however, as well as a 38-24 advantage on points in the paint. Auburn has scored a combined 169 points over their two NIT games thus far, so we should have a pretty good total if both teams can keep their offenses up.

Rating: 3 Units

UConn has had issues covering numbers all season, but this line feels soft when you consider the Huskies’ dominance in the NCAA Tournament under this current coaching staff. UConn is 13-1 ATS in its last 14 games in the big dance as a favorite. Yes, Furman hung around, but sometimes close calls are good for a bounce-back spot. I don’t trust UCLA to string together wins over good teams and sometimes this defense is leaky. UConn should simply be a larger favorite. This line feels like a gift, but I’m not asking any questions. Give me UConn and the small number.

Rating; 4 Units

I’ll stay with Florida. The Gators put on an absolute clinic versus an overmatched Prairie View squad in their First Round game, eventually shooting a scorching 64.3 percent from the field while giving up just 27 percent on the other side. Florida added a 47-17 rebounding edge and a 64-10 advantage on points in the paint. The Gators have lost just one game (versus Vanderbilt in the conference tourney) since January 24, and they’re scoring very well while doing it. As for Iowa, they put together a good win over Clemson despite shooting just 38.3 percent from the field. The Hawkeyes held the Tigers to just 40.7 percent on defense and added a 36-24 rebound ing edge. Iowa is just 2-4 in the last six games (against some tough Big Ten teams) however, so this one’s going to be tough.

Rating: 2 Units

In this Seattle vs Auburn Prediction, Auburn is coming as -13.5 home favorites. Seattle has a better overall record and are coming into this matchup in better form, as they are 5-1 in their last 6 games. On the flip side, Auburn is 4-6 in its last 10 games and just 2-8 against the spread and 7-9 ATS at home. Seattle has been superior defensively, allowing 12.4 points per game less than Auburn, which is the 25th-best in the entire nation, so I expect them to hang in this game and keep it closer than 14 points. Take Seattle and get those +13.5 points.

East Region Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

I’m on St. John’s here. I think the Red Storm are the better team in this matchup, and while a lot of folks will clamor for Darryn Peterson to be the best player on the floor, I think Zuby Ejiofor can be a point of contention for that. The Red Storm are no joke and I just didn’t love what I saw from Kansas against Cal Baptist. I’ll side with the Johnnies here.

Rating: 4 Units

Kentucky has the athleticism to hang around and the injury to Joshua Jefferson doesn’t bode well for Iowa State moving forward. Kentucky should also be a loose team after looking elimination in the face and surviving. However, Iowa State is just too consistent to bet against with the small number. Iowa State has torched teams this season and is 22-13 ATS on the season. We’ve also seen Kentucky come up small in big games this season. I haven’t forgotten the Louisville, Michigan State, Gonzaga, UNC, Alabama, etc. games. There have been endless games this season where Kentucky has been outclassed by good opponents. Iowa State is a good title contender, so we’ll see which Kentucky team shows up. Give me Iowa State.

Rating: 2 Units

The Boilermakers on defense are ranked 75th in college hoops in points given up per game with 70.2. They are able to force 10.2 turnovers per game and have allowed teams to shoot 44.6% from the floor (211th in college hoops). The Purdue defense gives up 34.0% on shots from beyond the arc (313 of 920) and their opponents are knocking down 72.1% of their free throw shots. They have surrendered 14.8 dimes and 28.2 rebounds per game, ranking them 282nd and 2nd in those defensive categories.

Rating: 3 Units

In my view, this matchup features two teams that can score efficiently, but Nebraska’s perimeter shooting and defensive discipline give the Cornhuskers a clear path to staying inside the number (2.5) in this contest. Let us not forget that Nebraska has one of the most complete defensive teams in the nation. For the reasons just noted, I am backing the Nebraska Cornhuskers plus the points in this game.

Rating: 3 Units

Texas is 3-1 ATS in its last 4 road/neutral-site games. Gonzaga is 1-3 ATS in its last 4 games. The Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral-site games. Gonzaga has been without 6-foot-10 F Braden Huff and his 17.8 points per game since January (knee injury), and over that span the Bulldogs' efficiency numbers at both ends have trended the wrong way.  Texas gets a lot of its points at the rim and is coming off solid offensive rebounding performances against BYU and NC State. The Longhorns are also the better 3-point-shooting team and are a veteran unit that finds its way to a lot of looks at the foul line.

Rating: 2 Units

The +2.5 line has been covered by UNCW in 17 of their last 20 games at home and has been covered by UNCW in 8 of their last 10 games. While the -2.5 line hasn’t been covered by Dayton in 7 of their last 10 games on the road and hasn’t been covered by Dayton in 3 of their last 5 games.

Rating: 2 Units

Texas A&M is absolutely capable of making this ugly, and that’s their path to staying in the game. But Houston is one of the worst possible matchups for them. The Cougars thrive in exactly the type of game the Aggies want to play: physical, defensive, and half-court oriented. The difference is Houston executes at a much higher level offensively and takes far better care of the ball. The key mismatch is Houston’s guard efficiency vs. Texas A&M’s limited scoring ceiling. If the Aggies fall behind, they don’t have the offensive firepower to consistently close the gap. Expect Texas A&M to keep it competitive early, but Houston’s discipline and depth should take over.

Rating: 4 Units

Duke will win, but 11.5 points is a big number for a second-round game against a physical Big 12 team. TCU has enough rebounding and interior toughness to stay close throughout, and the Horned Frogs just showed they can handle late-game pressure. Duke’s opener also showed this team can be forced into a slower, more uncomfortable game. TCU is the play with the points.

East Regional Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

In this Louisville vs Michigan State Prediction, Michigan State is coming as -4 favorites. Michigan State has an easy one in the opening round, winning by 25 points and have the 26th-best defense in the nation. On the flip side, Louisville had trouble against USF in the first round and is 3-6 against the spread in their last 9 games. Their defense has been struggling lately and are 1-3 in their last four head-to-head meetings against Michigan State. I like Michigan State in this spot, so lay the short number with them in this matchup.

Rating: 4 Units

While Michigan is clearly the better team on paper, the number feels a bit inflated given how well Saint Louis is playing offensively. The Billikens have shown they can score with anyone, and their efficiency combined with their rebounding ability gives them a chance to stay within striking distance. Michigan should win this game, but Saint Louis’ pace and shooting make them a dangerous underdog that can cover a large spread.

East Regional Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Furman has had a great season coming into the tournament, but it will face a juggernaut on Friday night. The Uconn Huskies are going to come into this match-up with a terrible taste in their mouth following their blowout loss last time out. Look for the Huskies to dominate this game in every aspect as they roll to an easy victory Friday night. Take UConn to get an easy blowout, getting cover Friday night in Philadelphia as they roll into the second round.

Rating: 2 Units

Prairie View A&M heads into this contest with a win-loss record of 18-17 for the year. They average 78.9 points per contest (103rd in D-1) while going 44.3% from the floor. The Panthers are connecting on 33.4% on shots from beyond the arc (216 of 646) and 75.3% from the free throw line. As a team, Prairie View A&M is collecting 34.0 rebounds per game and has accounted for 418 dimes so far this season, which is 249th in college hoops in terms of passing the rock. They turn it over 11.9 times per game and as a team they are committing 19.1 fouls per contest.

Rating: 3 Units

I’ll stick with Purdue. The Boilermakers finally played to their capabilities during the Big Ten Tournament, finishing things off with 52.6 percent shooting in the win over Michigan. Purdue would add just two turnovers and 72.7 percent (16-of-22) from the line, but did get outscored in the paint 46-40 and out-rebounded 31-25. The Boilermakers have won four straight (all in the conference tournament), scoring 73 or more points in each of those victories. As for Queens, they’re on a feel-good run following their OT win over Central Arkansas for the conference tournament championship. The Royals shot 46.2 percent from the field and 81.5 percent (22-of-27) from the line in that one alongside a 41-34 rebounding edge, but did have 16 turnovers for 24 Bears points. Queens is 7-1 in their last eight games and scoring well with 79 or more points in seven of those (71 in the other). Purdue will mark a significant uptick in competition during this First Round game, though.

Tournament Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

In my view, St. John’s overall physicality and athleticism force Northern Iowa into a style of play that is not conducive to the Panthers ability to succeed in this contest. St. John’s ability to control game pace and quality frontcourt play should be the difference in this one. I like the Red Storm to pull away in the second half and win this game rather easily. For the reasons just noted, I am backing the St. John’s Red Storm to cover the points in this game.

Rating: 3 Units

I’m on Miami Ohio and the points here. I was initially on Tennessee, but I think there’s something to be said for Miami Ohio and the Redhawks playing with some confidence after the win over SMU. Miami looked fantastic against the Mustangs and while Tennessee will bring physicality that Miami Ohio isn’t used to from their time in the MAC, I still think the Redhawks can keep it close. Give me Miami Ohio and the points here.

NOTE:  More NCAAB Winners after 4:00pm Eastern

West Regional Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Utah State comes into this matchup on a four game winning streak and they are representing the Mountain West after a pretty dominating season. The Aggies are shooting 50% from the field and they have allowed 66 points or fewer in three straight. Villanova has split their last four games and they looked awful against Georgetown last time out. The Wildcats are shooting 46% from the field and they have allowed 78+ points in three of their last four. I know this is a very popular play, but I am going with Utah State to get the win.

Note:  More NCAAB Winners after 4:00pm Eastern

Rating; 3 Units

Alabama comes into this matchup after losing two of their last three games and they are dealing with a big distraction off the court right now. The Crimson Tide are the highest scoring team in the country, but they play very little defense. Hofstra has won seven games in a row and they have allowed fewer than 70 points in five straight. The Pride are shooting 44% from the field and they play at a much slower pace than Alabama. This is an interesting game with different styles.

NOTE:  More NCAAB Winners after 4:00pm Eastern

Rating: 2 Units

I’ll take a stab on Santa Clara here; I just wish the line were a little thicker. The Broncos had a good first half in their loss to Gonzaga but wilted from there and eventually shot just 38.2 percent from the field with 52.8 percent surrendered on defense. Santa Clara did have a 33-32 rebounding edge and just nine turnovers but also got beaten in the paint 36-24. The Broncos are still 3-1 in their last four games with 76 or more points scored in each of the three wins. They’re going to have to hit the gas on offense against Kentucky, though. Speaking of Kentucky, they held Florida to just 37.9 percent from the field and 15 percent (3-of-20) from outside in their latest loss, scoring 18 points off 16 Gators turnovers. Trouble is, the Wildcats shot just 35.6 percent from the field with a 45-29 rebounding deficit. Kentucky seems to have regained their composure a bit after skidding into the postseason, notching a combined 165 points in the conference tourney wins over LSU and Missouri. Santa Clara should be firmly within the Wildcats’ wheelhouse, but I think the Broncos can hang around well enough to cover if all goes according to plan. With the thin line however, you could easily go Kentucky’s way and feel pretty confident about it.

NOTE:  More NCAAB Winners after 4:00m Eastern

Rating: 2 Units

Gonzaga is going to be massive favorites for obvious reasons: they are the better team and close to home. Gonzaga has a long history of blowing the doors off in games like this. However, Gonzaga is just 4-5 ATS in its last 9 games when favorites of 15 or more points and one of those was an outright loss to Portland. Kennesaw State pushes the pace and crashes the glass with the best of them. It’s a gimmick style and could get the Owls in trouble offensively if they’re not hitting shots but there’s a formula to hang around if they do. We saw Kennesaw State give alabama trouble earlier in the season and it played USF. Kennesaw State has also seen others step up since Simeon Cottle was suspended. This feels like too many points. Give me Kennesaw.

Inner-Circle

Rating: 4 Units

In this Pennsylvania vs Illinois Prediction, Illinois coming as -25.5 favorites. Illinois has been the far better team but they were eliminated in the Big 10 quarterfinals by Wisconsin. They are 2-3 in their last 5 games and 1-4 against the spread, but are a top-45 team in the nation both offensively and defensively. Penn has been red-hot lately, with a 9-1 record both overall and against the spread in its last 10 games and won the Ivy league, so I don’t think they deserve to be such huge underdogs. The points are too many so I will get the +25.5 points with Penn in this one.

Rating: 2 Units

I’m on the Longhorns and the points here. Every year, there’s at least one team that plays a first four game that proceeds to win their next game and I think that could be Texas this year. BYU was hot and cold over the second half of the season, and I still have question marks about this BYU team without Richie Saunders as it puts pressure on a young AJ Dybantsa in his first NCAA tournament appearance here. I think Texasis live to win this game, so give me the Longhorns and the free bucket.

Rating: 3 Units

I’ll lean toward Saint Mary’s but you could call this one either way. The Gaels had a bad second half in their loss to Santa Clara, posting 10 turnovers with a 32-22 deficit on points in the paint and 48.4 percent shooting surrendered on defense. Otherwise Saint Mary’s didn’t play too badly though, with 44.4 percent shooting from the field and a 37-28 rebounding advantage. The Gaels are still 8-1 in their last nine games but they’ve only taken the court once during the entire month of March so far. As for Texas A&M, they didn’t shoot very well in the loss to Oklahoma with 38.3 percent from the field and 60 percent (9-of-15) from outside. The Aggies were out-rebounded 45-31 and outscored in the paint 42-30. Texas A&M is just 4-7 over their last 11 games, but to be fair they’ve seen some tough teams in that time. This one will be in Texas A&M’s wheelhouse if they play well.

Rating: 3 Units

Michigan State holds clear advantages in depth, athleticism, and interior presence. North Dakota State can score, but this matchup forces them into tougher looks and limits transition opportunities. The Spartans will control tempo through Fears and create consistent scoring chances inside. Over time, the rebounding edge and defensive pressure will help the Spartans open a big lead in this game. North Dakota State relies heavily on shot-making, while Michigan State has several options to put the ball in the hoop. The Spartans will pull away in the second half and cover the number.

NOTE:  Additional Selections after 4:00pm Eastern

Rating: 2 Units

The spread has already moved two points in Siena's favor from its peak, and the backdoor cover blueprint is clearly established. Duke's injury situation reduces the ceiling on their first-half dominance, and Scheyer will have no motivation to keep the pedal down once a comfortable lead is in hand. McNamara's teams play hard until the final horn, and that combination of factors makes the Saints a legitimate cover candidate even in a game they have no realistic chance of winning outright.

NOTE:  Additional Selections after 4:00pm Eastern

Rating; 4 Units

The line has fallen three full points from the opening number, driven by overwhelming public and sharp action on USF. The Bulls are 19-3 with an 11-game winning streak, a balanced roster with five double-digit scorers, and a head coach running a system specifically designed to disrupt more talent-rich opponents. At plus money or near even on a four-and-a-half-point number, South Florida is the play regardless of the Brown update.

NOTE:  Additional Selections after 4:00pm Eastern

Rating: 2 Units

Saint Joseph’s has won eight of its last nine night games. Saint Joseph’s has won the first half in nine of its last 10 night games.

NOTE: Additional NCAAB Picks after 4:00pm Eastern Time

Rating: 2 Units

UIC have covered the Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.45 Units / 31% ROI)

Rating: 3 Units

SMU is the more talented team and far and away more battle-tested, but it’s also an ACC team that had expectations and has lost 5 of its last 6 games. I’m not sure SMU is going to be able to get off the canvas. Miami (OH) has been criticized all season for its poor schedule and failed to close the deal in the conference championship, but it was given another chance to prove itself. No matter what you think of Miami (OH), it’s lost just one game this season and is 19-10 ATS overall. You make money backing Miami (OH). Since March 14 of last year, Miami (OH) is 5-0 SU and ATS as an underdog. Three of those wins have come under the 2026 calendar. While others are quick to poo-poo on this team, I’ll keep backing the Redhawks for a profit. Give me the points.

Rating: 3 Units

This matchup features a New Mexico Lobos team that plays exceptionally well at home (14-3). With that said, the Sam Houston State Bearkats are a team that plays with enough pace and quality offense to keep the Bearkats within the number here. For the reasons just noted, I am backing Sam Houston State plus the points in this game.

Rating: 2 Units

I’ll lean toward Navy but you could make a case either way. The Midshipmen shot 42.9 percent from the field with a rough 15.4 percent (2-of-13) from 3-point range in their loss to Boston U, giving up 55.3 percent shooting on defense. Navy played well otherwise though, posting a 31-25 rebounding edge, a 46-24 advantage in the paint and just four turnovers. The Midshipmen are still 14-1 in their last 15 games, and they’ve scored 72 or more points in nine consecutive outings. As for Wake Forest, they shot 44 percent from the field while holding Clemson to just 40.6 percent in their latest loss. The Deacons were outmuscled on the boards 38-30 however, and gave up 12 turnovers for 20 Tigers points. Wake Forest is 3-2 in their last five outings, scoring 70 or more points in four of those. This matchup could go a lot of different ways; it’ll be an interesting one to check out.

Rating: 3 Units

In this UNLV vs UC Irvine Prediction, UC Irvine is coming as -3 favorites. UC Irvine has been the better team this season and have a better ATS record. They are 7-2 both straight up and against the spread in their last 9 games, while UNLV has lost two of its last three games and their defense has been shaky at best lately, having allowed 80+ points in six of their last nine games. On the flip side, UC Irvine’s defense has been far better this season and I expect them to take care of business in this matchup and cover the spread.

NOTE:  Additional NIT selections to post after 4:00pm Eastern today.

Rating: 3 Units

Auburn’s offensive firepower is real, but the Tigers’ defensive vulnerabilities, recent form collapse, and the absence of Keyshawn Hall create enough uncertainty to make this spread too high. South Alabama’s elite turnover control and opponent field goal percentage defense give them the structure to keep this game competitive deep into the second half.

Rating: 2 Units

This game is very evenly matched, but I give a slight edge to Texas because of their offensive efficiency and rebounding advantage. Even though both teams have struggled recently, Texas has shown the ability to score at a high level, which should help them in what could turn into a fast-paced game. In a near pick’em scenario, I’ll take Texas to cover.

Rating; 2 Units

George Mason has won each of its last nine games against non-Conference opponents at EagleBank Arena. George Mason has won the first half in each of its last seven Tuesday home games against non-Conference opponents.

Rating: 3 Units

Purdue plus the points represents the clean value play. The Boilermakers have the structural profile of a team that keeps games competitive — Smith's decision-making, Kaufman-Renn's frontcourt production, and an intact rotation — and the spread has not moved despite public money flowing toward Michigan, which is the kind of market signal that reinforces the analytical case for the underdog.

Rating; 2 Units

South Florida has a better overall record but Wichita State has been better against the spread and both teams have been scorching-hot lately, with South Florida having 10 consecutive wins and Wichita State being 9-1 in their last 10. Both teams also split wins in their two regular season meetings and Wichita State is 7-3 in their last 10 head-to-head matches and 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings, so I expect them to keep this closer than 6 points. Take Wichita State and get the +6.5 points in this one.

Rating: 3 Units

The Under is the stronger of the two plays, supported by the market's own two-point drop from the opening total, the history of these two programs tightening games in championship contexts, and the reality that both semifinal scores were inflated by opponent defensive lapses that Arkansas and Vanderbilt are unlikely to replicate against each other.

Rating: 2 Units

I’m on Duke here. I liked a lot of what Virginia’s done up to this point and it’s a revenge spot for Virginia who got drilled by Duke not that long ago in the lone meeting this season. However, Duke just looks more complete right now, and I think the Blue Devils win this game and get the cover with conviction. Give me Duke.

Rating: 4 Units

KenPom projects 75-65 Duke (140 total) — the line at 137.5 is 2.5 points low for two efficient offenses in a championship game. Both teams combine for 163.5 PPG in the regular season — tournament pace suppression is minimal; elite defenses can coexist with scoring. Virginia's recent dominance (9-game win streak, 84-62 over Miami) — the Cavs are generating offense efficiently; Duke's injuries (Foster, Ngongba II) don't suppress scoring upside.

Rating: 4 Units

The total opened with the under at -105, the February 25 meeting finished at 112 combined points, and UConn's defensive identity is built to suppress exactly the kind of transition-heavy scoring that inflated the February 6 final. The under is the natural lean in a championship final played at this pace and physical intensity.

Rating: 2 Units

Michigan comes into this matchup on a lengthy winning streak and they only have one loss in Big Ten play, but they didn’t look great against OSU on Friday. The Wolverines are shooting 51% from the field and they have allowed 70 or fewer in four of their last five. Wisconsin is also on a nice winning streak and they have scored at least 85 points in four of their last five. The Badgers already have a win over Michigan this year and they are playing very well right now, so give me the points with Wisconsin here.

Rating: 3 Units

In my view, Vanderbilt’s pace and defensive discipline give the Commodores a real chance to stay inside the number (8.5) in this contest. The Gators have an exceptional team and arrive at this contest on a 12-game winning streak. However, the Commodores ability to potentially slow down Florida’s transition game and force more half‑court possessions could be the difference in this one. For the reasons just noted, I am backing the Vanderbilt Commodores plus the 8.5 points in this game.

Rating: 3 Units

Each of Wisconsin’s last seven day games against Top 5 AP-ranked opponents at a neutral venue have produced a total of 151 or fewer points. While thirty-eight of Michigan’s last 42 day games against AP-ranked opponents have produced a total of 161 or fewer points.