This game is going to be played in sustained winds, with gusts up to 45 MPH during the entire game. The winds will be blowing diagonally across the field, so no edge at either end of the field. Baltimore has Henry and Jackson, the best running combo that is meant for this kind of weather. Make the play on Baltimore.

The Kansas City Chiefs are just 5-4 on the season, while the Denver Broncos are a home dog to Kansas City, who just hasn't been the same Kansas City offense we have seen in recent years. Denver has a better run defense, pass defense, and total defense than Kansas City, by a good margin. The Broncos defense is allowing just 4.7 yards per play. Denver's two losses have come at Indianapolis by 1 point, and at the 7-3 LA Chargers by 3 points. Denver is 33-21-5 ATS as a home dog since 1989. Denver is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings, and playing at home during that same period they are 4-0 ATS. Make the play on Denver.

Matthew Stafford is having an incredible season, but out of nowhere Seattle QB Sam Darnold has the best numbers in the NFL. Darnold is averaging an ultra elite 9.9 yards per pass attempt on the season. The next best has been Drake Maye of New England at 8.9. Darnold is completing 71% of his passes, with 17 TDs. Seattle fits a huge situation that is 180-111-6 ATS. Make the play on Seattle.

he Atlanta Falcons will host the Carolina Panthers this Sunday. The Falcons are just 3-6 on the season. I would think the Panthers run the ball a lot in this one.Carolina RB Rico Dowdle is likely to play and he has run for 788 yards at 5.3 yards a carry. The Falcons run defense is 29th in the league. The Panthers are a shocking 0-11 SU and ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite, but they are 16-9-1 ATS as a dog of 4 or fewer points. Make the play on Carolina.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are 5-3, and they have been fairly lucky to do so as 4 of their 5 wins have come in 1 possession games. The Chargers are not only 6-3, they are playing good football. This will be the Chargers 9th straight game as a favorite. That kind of says something about this team. The Chargers are averaging 29ppg in their last 4 contests, and have won 3 of the 4. The Steelers big win in Indianapolis last week was provided by 6 turnovers by the Colts, and they still only lost by 7 points. They out-gained Pittsburgh 368-225. Just as a footnote an NFL team that saw their opponent turn the ball over 6 or more times in their last game cover just 45.5% of their next game. Make the play on the LA Chargers.

The LA Rams are 6-2 and have looked spectacular the last 2 weeks. That sets them up in one of the NFL's many contrarian outcomes. A team that scores 31 or more points in their last 2 games, as well as allowing fewer than 13 points in 2 straight games, are ready for the crater as they are 11-37 ATS in their last 48 games in this situation. those numbers go against the Rams. If the game is on the road, the results are 2-17 ATS. Make the play on San Francisco.

The Washington Commanders have dealt with key injuries all season, and now Jayden Daniels is ruled out again with an elbow injury and WR Terry McLaurin is sidelined with a quad injury. The Lions have had more injuries than any other team, but the heart of this team is still healthy. No team has had more success than the Lions when they are coming off a home game, playing on the road. Detroit is 15-1 SU and 16-0 ATS when doing so, covering by 8.3ppg. I like Detroit in this one.

This is a weather play. The conditions in Chicago Sunday call for some snow,but more importantly high winds. The wind will be blowing at 15-20 mph sustained, as well as gusts into the 30s. The running game advantage in this game belongs to Chicago, and I think the better ground game here is going to be on the field the most, and passes are likely limited to short patterns as throwing long is not going to have a good result. Make the play on Chicago.

A team that is a dog of from 3.5 to 10 points, that has a scoring margin of -10 or worse, and has scored 17 or fewer points in each of their last 3 games, has gone 115-65-2 ATS, covering 64% of all games. Make the play on the New Orleans Saints.

The Indianapolis Colts are 7-2 but the numbers have not been as favorable as the record. The Atlanta Falcons on the other hand has numbers that are more favorable than the record. Indianapolis and Atlanta are both tied when it comes to yards for and yards against. Atlanta gains 51 fewer yards per game than Atlanta, but the Falcons allow opponents 51 yards less per game. This is a big number to hang that just doesn't the stats of the game, it fits the team's records. This is a neutral field in Germany, and Indianapolis fits a 27-52 ATS situation. Make the play on Atlanta.

The Denver Broncos will have the unfair advantage of playing on 3 days rest and playing at home, providing their opponent is also on 3 days rest. All Thursday Night NFL games with a home favorite are 105-77-4 ATS. When the line is in the range of -7.5 points or more the home favorite is 38-22-1 ATS. The theory here is a significant line (-7.5 or higher), means a much deeper and better team that can adjust better to the short rest, especially when the worst team in the game is traveling on short rest. Make the play on Denver.

The Jacksonville Jaguars will take to the road to take on the Las Vegas Raiders. Jacksonville started the season getting a lot of luck. Their opponents turned the ball over 14 times in their first 5 games leading to a 4-1 start. Their last 2 games their opponent did not turn the ball over at all, and the Jags are 0-2. Despite their 4-3 record the Jaguars have been collectively outscored by their opponents. These teams are statistically even. The biggest edge is a team that was shutout in their last game, are 120-86-5 ATS. All professional sports players, after being embarrassed play with a bigger edge their next time out. Make the play on Las Vegas.

The Cincinnati Bengals have to be pleased with what they have seen from Joe Flacco. Since becoming the Bengals starting QB Flacco has certainly made a difference with the offense. They averaged just 17ppg before he arrived, and 30ppg since week 6 with Flacco under center. The other big factor is the Bengals turned the ball over 11 times in 5 games without Flacco and none since he took over. When a team plays 3 straight `clean` games (no turnovers they are great bets. These teams are 126-86-6 ATS on the blind (nearly 60% winners). The Bears have serious injury issues in their secondary, and with Higgins, and Chase Flacco has been really connecting. I like Cincinnati.

I don`t think to many people would have predicted the Indianapolis Colts would be 7-1 through 8 games and own the best record in the NFL. They have had 1 bad game, where they turned the ball over 3 times, but in their other 7 games they have turned over the ball just 1 time!! Pittsburgh lost their last game to Green Bay at home, and now have to try and come back at home again to find the win column. This has historically been a death sentence to a team that lost their last game to move to 4-3 on the season. These teams have been 29-63-6 ATS. The Colts are now 21-9 ATS vs. conference opponents. Make the play on Indianapolis.

It is crunch time for the Baltimore Ravens as they head to Miami to take on the Dolphins. The Ravens expect to get Lamar Jackson back for tonight's game. He injured his hamstring during the game with Kansas City, and has missed the last 3 games. The Ravens are 2-5 and a loss could really sting their playoff chances. Baltimore brings in a better defense and better offense. The Ravens averaged 32.8ppg in Jackson's 4 starts, but just 14.3ppg in the 3 games he missed. Miami has an even bigger challenge at 2-6. The Dolphins are in a huge letdown spot. A team that wins as a dog of 6 or more points, and they are a dog of 6 or more points in their next game is 92-140-4 ATS, and Baltimore fits a 20-4 ATS situation based in part playing on home favorites in Thursday games in a non-division contest. Make the play on Baltimore.

It looks like the Kansas City Chiefs are not finished after all. The Chiefs opened the season at 0-2 but have been 4-1 since. The Commanders offense played without their top 3 receivers last week in Dallas and lost by 22. The Commanders are reeling having lost 3 of their last 4 games. They have made 5 turnovers just in their las2 games, while the defense has turned their opponent over just 3 times all season. Kansas City had a rare defensive game last week shutting out the Raiders and holding them to fewer than 7 first downs and under 100 total yards. A team holding their previous opponent to fewer than 7 first downs are 50-23-3 ATS.A team that shut out their previous opponent while allowing them fewer than 100 yards of offense are 16-1-1 ATS. Make the play on Kansas City. 

This is purely a situational play that finds the Cowboys on a 77-34 ATS situation. Make the play on Dallas.

The New England Patriots look like they have found themselves a QB in Drake Maye. Maye is tied with Jared Goff at 116.4 for the highest passer rating in the NFL. The Patriots have won 4 straight games and covered all of them. That tends to make odds makers pad lines. NE was a 6.5 point favorite over Tennessee, but a 7.5 point favorite now over Cleveland. Evidence in padding point spreads is found by looking at how a team that has won and covered 4 straight does in their next game, and they are a woeful 103-122-8 ATS just 45.80%. The Browns have a bye next week, and coaches like to use the game prior to the bye filled with incentives, like an extra day or two off. Cleveland fits a situation based on that which is 28-5-2 ATS!! Make the play on Cleveland.

The NY Giants have been playing with more energy with Cam Skattebo and QB Jaxon Dart. They really had a bad beat last week in Denver as they dominated the game until allowing 33 points to Denver in the second half for the loss. This one is an automatic system play that plays on certain teams with a bye the following week. It has been 64-13-1 ATS. Make the play on Philadelphia.

The NY Jets have not won more than 7 games since 2015. They are certainly not on course to change that this season as the head to Cincinnati to face the Bengals. The Bengals are 3-4, but their offense has been just as bad as the jets as they are generating just 4.9 yards per play, the same as the Jets. The Jets are surprisingly allowing 0.7 yards per play lower than the Bengals, making them a better team overall from the line of scrimmage. The Jets have played 5 of their 7 losses to one score games, so things aren't as bad as they have looked. The Bengals are off a 2 point win in Pittsburgh, and may be facing a letdown here, as they snapped a 4 game losing streak. The 4 game losing streak saw them lose all of them by more than 1 possession. When a team gets to 0-7 or worse they are 69-45-4 ATS, as odds makers tend to pad their lines. Make the play on the NY Jets.

The Minnesota Vikings are just 3-3 and they have self destructed in a lot of places. The Vikings lost JJ McCarthy to an ankle injury and his replacement Carson Wentz has been pretty much his equal. (McCarthy may play tonight) The Vikings issues are defenders are getting to the QB a lot. Already 23 times in 6 games. Justin Jefferson has caught just 1 TD pass, and they need him more involved. The Vikings have just 2 INT's on the season, and have not been able to get pressure. Chargers part of a Thursday Night home favorite situation. NFL Thursday home favorites are 119-92-6 ATS. Make the play on the LA Chargers.

The Dallas Cowboys are under .500 at 2-3-1, but if Dak Prescott continues to play at a high level, and there defense gets healthy and improves the will leap over the .500 mark. One of the biggest recipes for success is coming into a game having committed 0 turnovers over their last 3 games, and facing a team that has at least 3 turnovers in their last 3 games. These teams are 102-56-5 ATS at 64.6% winners, including 34-19-2 ATS in division games. Make the play on Dallas.

The Green Bay Packers have yet to win a game on the road this season (0-1-1), but they certainly make a good argument this week against the Cardinals in Arizona. The Packers bring an impressive resume into this game. They are tied with Denver for allowing the fewest yards per play in the league at 4.7ypp. Jordan Love has thrown 9 TDs to just 2 INT's and he is averaging 8.3ypa on the season, better than any one else on the card. Arizona is just 2-4 on the season and they have had issues on both sides of the ball. The Packers finally got their running game going as they have topped 150 yards in 2 straight games. Big statistical edge here. Make the play on Green Bay.

The NY Giants have become a fun team to watch. They have inserted Jaxon Dart at QB and Cam Skattebo at running back, and their play has elevated their team. The Giants will face a Denver defense that is allowing just 4.7ypp which ties them for the best mark in the NFL with the Green Bay Packers. Couple that with the Giants huge upset over Philadelphia 34-17 as an 8 point dog. While that looks great many bettors will jump on the bandwagon in what is a major letdown spot for them. A team off a dog win as a +6 or more point under dog, and are once again a 6 or more point under dog is 91-140-4 ATS. Make the play on Denver.

This one comes from the one and only predictive model I have built, that leans on several meaningful stats. The main stat is weighted to turnover differentials, with input pertaining heavy on potential turnover margins vs. normal. This true betting system is 54-104-7 ATS (65.8%), and it plays against the Bears. Make the play on New Orleans.

The LA Rams and the Jacksonville Jaguars will do battle in London. One of the first thing I noticed when looking at this game was that the records for both teams is 4-2, the numbers are completely different. The Rams are entirely below the radar. They have been the best team in the NFL from the line of scrimmage. The Rams are averaging 6.3ypp on offense while allowing just 4.9ypp on defense. Jacksonville is averaging 5.4ypp on offense while allowing 5.8 yards per play on defense. The Rams have decided edges both when they have the ball, or their opponent has the ball. This is just a clear cut handicap. Make the play on the LA Rams.

The Green Bay Packers had a bye last week, and will take on the Cincinnati Bengals at Lambeau Field. The Bengals apparently had seen enough out of Jake Browning and have traded for Joe Flacco. Flacco will get the start, but not likely using a full playbook. Perhaps worse than that is the Bengals have the worst offensive line in football. Looks like Gary and Parsons are going to be in the Bengal backfield a lot. A team off their bye week that is a favorite of -3 or more points are 84-44-2 ATS if they scored28 or more points before their bye. The Packers are 8-2 ATS in this spot. I like Green Bay.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have been very lucky through 4 games. They have a 3-1 record, but have been out-gained by all 4 opponents and not by just a little. The Steelers have been out-gained by over 100 yards per game! The reason why they are winning is they have a net turnover differential of +7. Despite being 3-1 they have been out-scored by their 4 opponents 96-94. Winning is unsustainable. The Cleveland Browns have the #2 defense in the league, and are certainly capable of shutting down a mediocre Pittsburgh offense. I think having Dillon Gabriel will ultimately help the Browns poor offense improve. This game fits a situation that has been 137-93-5 ATS (59.6%), and I'm making the call on the Browns.

Seattle will make the long trip to Jacksonville this week to take on the surging Jaguars who enter the game at 4-1. Seattle has the better offense and defense in this game, and are playing as a slim 1.5 point favorite. They are off their biggest win of the season a 31-28 win vs. Kansas City. The Jaguars were out-gained by the Chiefs by over 150 yards, marking the 2nd week in a row they have been out-gained. Seattle has out-gained each of their last 4 opponents, and clearly has the statistical edge here, as well as the betting situations which also highly favor the Seahawks. They are backed in this game by one that is 120-67-5 ATS. Make the play on Seattle.

The Denver Broncos were all over the Bengals Monday Night. They got a career high passing yards from Bo Nix, and J.K. Dobbins ran for over 100 yards. Defensively they were even better as they held the Bengals to 159 total yards and just 3 points. The Broncos had 29 first downs in the game, to the Bengals 9. So where does that leave the Bengals going into week 5 vs. the Detroit Lions? The one key takeaway when the wheels are coming off and you have a very undisciplined team is part of NFL history. There is more to this situation than what I`m letting on, but the core of it is to play against a team that had more penalties than first downs in their last game. If you just played against every team since 1989 that had fewer first downs than penalties you would be 144-105-5 ATS (57.8%). I have a subset of this premise that is 31-2 ATS!! Make the play on Detroit.

This game fits a 316-193-9 ATS situation, and the play is on Washington.

Sunday. Their weak offense hit rock bottom last week as they were shutout by the Houston Texans. There just isn't a lot of flavor on the Titans and no one wants any part of them. This makes for an easy contrarian play because the line is tanked with a few extra points to get you on Tennessee. That shows up in the long history of the NFL. If you look at all teams that were shutout in the regular season in their last game they are 119-86-5 ATS or cover blindly at 58%. I also have another shutout situation on a team off being shutout that is 30-6 ATS. Make the play on Tennessee.

This should be an interesting game as both these teams have strong defenses. I think the team that can run the ball in this game is going to win it, as these teams stack up fairly even. The reason I'm playing it is the 316-193-9 ATS situation that is live here. Make the play on Tampa Bay.

Jaxon Dart made enough difference last week to get the Giants their first win of the season over the Chargers 21-18. He took care of the ball, ran for 52 yards, and was efficient through the air. New Orleans is still looking for that elusive first win as they enter this contest at 0-4. This is a game that includes a huge betting situation that has been 316-193-9 ATS and 62.1% winners
since 1991. Make the play on the NY Giants.

he Cincinnati Bengals are off a horrible loss to Minnesota by the score of 48-10. That suggests that bettors will not give much of a look at Cincinnati, but many will also look hard at Denver.This is one of those NFL contrarian plays, and I have many situations that show this at work. For starters, a team that has just 1 condition, it gave up 42 points or more in their last game are blindly profitable playing on them in their next game at 280-243-12 ATS or 53.5% winners. Those numbers nullify the hypothesis of a fair bet. If you take into account that they also lost that game allowing 42 or more points (Cincinnati 48 last week vs Minnesota). If they lost that game by 30 or more points they are 104-77-10 ATS (57.5%). There is nothing about this game that is more predictive than that. I like Cincinnati.

The Cleveland Browns are a good team to bet on right now. They are 1-2 and have played 2 very strong offenses in Green Bay and Baltimore. Baltimore scored 41 points, but it wasn't because the Raven's offense ran all over them. The Ravens gained just 242 total yards against them. The Packers gained just 230 total yards. Cincinnati gained just 130 total yards. Needless to say the Browns defense has been tested twice, and delivered. This season through 3 games the Browns have forced their opponent 3 and out 50% of all times. Detroit has gotten a lot out of their two running backs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. They won't have that in this game. I like Cleveland.

There is obviously a huge chasm between New Orleans and Buffalo. The Bills are a potential Super Bowl team, and the Saints are a potential team to get the first overall draft pick. I love playing into ugly, as the contrarian winds blow weekly. I especially like ugly games when they are backed by history. Dogs that gave up over 40 points last game, and average fewer than 17ppg are 94-45-4 ATS!! These teams have covered 6 in a row. I like New Orleans.

Probably the strangest outcome last week was Carolina shutting out Atlanta 30-0. One thing I noticed about shutting a team out has connections to their next game. If it was a class "A" shutout where the opponent gained less than 100 yards, or a class "B" shutout where the opponent gained 200 yards or more, is where the money is. A team that shutout their last opponent while holding them to fewer than 100 yards or allowed them 300 yards or better. When these teams don't take the field as a better than 10 point favorite they are 22-2-1 ATS. Make the play on Carolina.

Realizing the NFL is a contrarian league, I decided to take a look and see if having been shutout in their last game impacts that team`s next game. Well, the results are not surprising. If you just took that 1 condition and nothing else and simply bet on a team that was shutout, in their next game. These teams are 131-108-6 ATS. That is close to 55% winners.I could use this and find better winning situations, but I think the raw 1 variable system is huge. Make the play on Atlanta.

This is a big game for both teams. The NFC West looks like the best conference from top to bottom in the early going. No team is worse than 2-1 so far, and with each of these teams off to a 2-1 start, the game has some extra juice. The early data shows that Seattle is a much better offense, and Seattle also has a slightly better defense. This has the look of a contrarian type game. Seattle has a margin of victory of 13.7ppg. Perhaps more telling is Seattle has not been great in the division as they are 1 game over .500 since 2017. Road favorites with a scoring margin of 10 or more points, and won their last game by 14 or more points are a highly negative 64-106-2 ATS. Cards are 8-1 ATS and 8-1 SU as a home dog of 2 points or less. This is a solid contrarian spot, which the NFL is known for. Make the play on Arizona.

This game is strictly a system play. It is top 3 of 100's of systems I have. This one is a crazy 56-7-1 ATS. Make the play on San Francisco.

he Atlanta Falcons will make the trip to Carolina to take on the Carolina Panthers. Carolina has not finished with a winning record since 2017. There are no signs of improvement as the last 2 years they have won 7 games. They have started 0-2 on the season, and as bad as the offense has been, they are missing 2 offensive lineman for this game. Michael Penix has not thrown an interception through two games. A team that starts 2-0 without throwing an interception cover 54% of all games, and that shoots up to 65% when they are playing as a road favorite. A team off a home loss where they gained less than 50 rushing yards, from game 2 through game 4,are 42-82 ATS which plays against Carolina. Make the play on Atlanta.

The Green Bay Packers have started 2-0, and they looked good winning. I think that adds to some of the hype for this team, and throw in Micah Parsons, and they are getting a lot of early attention, and the value is on the other
side. This has always been the case, the Packers win at home, but they have a losing record on the road. The Packers over the last 9 years have finished with a winning ATS mark on the road as a favorite just 1 time, and overall in the same period they are 13-21 ATS. The Packers are also 0-3 ATS trying to cover more than 7. The Browns fit a huge system that is as follows. Play against a dog that allowed 40 or more points last game, if they are averaging fewer than 17ppg. These teams are 93-45-4 ATS. Make the play on Cleveland.

I have to go with my top Monday night situation for this game. The situation is 44-13 ATS and on the Las Vegas Raiders.

The Minnesota Vikings will host the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday night football. This is only week 2 so a lot of the stats, in many cases have a high level of variance, as high as it will be all season. This game fits a revenge situation that has been very powerful over the years and is 81-49-5 ATS on the Falcons. The Falcons are also in a 135-95-5 ATS situation. I like Atlanta in this one.

New England had more success in the air last week than they did on the ground. The offense should have scored a lot more as they generated 276 yards in the air, on 30 completions. Meanwhile Miami got tortured by Indianapolis 33-8. The Miami offense generated just 211 total yards and turned the ball over 3 times. Indy out-gained Miami by nearly 200 yards. They also ran 26 more plays than Miami. This game fits a game two situation that is 47-14 ATS and my play is on New England.

The Minnesota Vikings will take on the Chicago Bears in Chicago to open up the Monday Night Football season. It is difficult to handicap game 1, because the variances are as high as they get as the season moves forward. However this appears to be a good game to bet. I think the Bears will be better this year, and the Vikings worse. Situations are all pointing to the Bears including on playing a week 1 division home dog. Since the start of the 2010 season these dogs have barked loud at 24-8 ATS. Make the play on Chicago.

I am traveling today, and there will be no write ups. The play is on Buffalo

I am traveling today, and there will be no write ups. The play is on Seattle.

I am traveling today, and there will be no write ups. The play is on Houston.

There is a huge the advantage for a team that is playing as a home favorite on a Thursday. The short week, and road team by the line is worse than the home team, has shown to yield a huge edge for the home team. Thursday NFL home favorites are 132-71 ATS. Make the play on Green Bay.

There is a huge advantage for a team that is playing as a home favorite on a Thursday. The short week, and road team by the line is worse than the home team, has shown to yield a huge edge for the home team. Thursday NFL home favorites are 132-71 ATS. Make the play on Dallas.

The Detroit Lions are the best team in the NFC, and with the strength of the NFC this year, vs. the AFC, you can argue that the Lions are the best team in football right now. There has long been an advantage of an elite team playing as a home favorite on a Thursday as they cover a very high percentage of games. The reason is they have an advantage: being the better team on a short week and playing at home. A team playing on Thursday as a home favorite of -10 or more points is 23-0 SU, and 17-5-1 ATS. Make the play on Detroit.

The Rams are playing as well as anyone of late as they have won 4 of their last 5. They fit a Sunday Night Football situation that is 31-8 ATS. Make the play on the LA Rams.

The Niners have to go without Brock Purdy today, but I expect their defense to control the Packer offense. This game fits a 2nd team QB situation in his first as a replacement, that is 67-8 ATS. Make the play on San Francisco.

The Raiders fit a situation that is 117-78 ATS. Make the play on Vegas.

This will be the Vikings 3rd straight road game, and it qualifies in a situation playing against such teams which is 98-55 ATS. Make the play on Chicago.

The Pittsburgh Steelers can play defense, but the offense was another story. QB Russell Wilson has been a game changer as he has dusted himself off, for a good run. He has 8 completions with the ball going 20+ air yards, and the Ravens pass defense is open for business, as they allow nearly 300 yards per game.The Ravens have played 7 one possession games, and their margin this season is not what it was a year ago. This is the worst Baltimore defense I have remembered in a long time. Make the play on Pittshurgh. 

Caleb Williams has struggled as he has no time to throw, and no receivers getting open. Williams has been sacked 38 times already this season, and it starts to take its toll. Green Bay is coming off their bye week where they are 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS as a favorite to a sub-.500 team. The Packers have dominated the Bears as they are 10-0 SU and 10-0 ATS in the last 10 meetings. The Bears have faced the easiest schedule in the NFL, and despite of that this team is averaging -1.1 yards per play. The Packers are 26-5 SU and 24-7 ATS in their last 31 games in Chicago. Make the play on Green Bay.

It will be hard for any bettor to get down, and have the nerve to play on Tennessee this week. The Titans have probably burned most bettors this season as they have failed to cover a game in any of their last 5, but that is when they have gotten so far negative, the lines are now tilted in their favor. A team that has failed to cover at least 5 straight games have gone 60-34-2 ATS. Make the play on Tennessee.

This game fits a 26-1 ATS situation on the visitor based in part of the Raiders lo possession time the last  weeks. Make the play on Vegas.

The Houston Texans have been tough to take down at home as they are a perfect 4-0. There is more to it than that. The Texans beat the Bears with a rookie QB, a 2-7 Jacksonville team, an injured Buffalo team, and Indianapolis, a team that has been unsettled with their QB's. Despite all that, the Texans couldn't win any of the 4 games by more than 6 points. C.J. Stroud has had little time to get the ball out. The Jets sacked him 8 times, and 3 or more times in five games. The Texans offensive line is injured, and it will be hard for Stroud to remain upright, and unpressured. The Lions fall into a 1 loss team after 8 games of the season, and 2 other factors that has gone 31-6 ATS. Make the play on Detroit.

The Buffalo Bills are 7- on the season. They had a bad 2 game stretch here they lost both, but are otherwise 7-0. More importantly this team scores. The Bills and Ravens share the top spot for 30+ point games on the season with 6 each. The Colts have reached 30 just 1 time this season. That's a lot of distance to make up. The Bills also fit a situation that plays on a road favorite that has scored at least 4 points in each of its last 2 games, vs. an opponent off to straight road losses. This is 32-11 ATS. Make the play on Buffalo.

This is a blind system play that has been 66-19 ATS! The play is on San Francisco.

This game fits a Monday Night Football situation that plays on certain unbeaten teams. This situation is 16-3-2 ATS, and 12-1 ATS if it is after game 4 of the season, hen being unbeaten has more value.

he Denver Broncos have turned the corner under Sean Payton. Payton has gotten his teams to excel in the role of a dog here they are 54-33-22 ATS. That improves to 32-15-1 ATS as a dog of more than 3 points. I will make the play on Denver.

The Raiders fit an extremely strong situation that is based in part by a team that has a bye the following week. This situation is 28-3-2 ATS. Make the play on Vegas.

The Dallas Cowboys are just 3-4 on the season as they head on the road to Atlanta. This is a big game for Dallas as falling to 3-5 on the season with the Eagles, Texans, and Commodores on deck might keep them out of the playoffs. The defense has been awful, as Dallas is allowing 6 yards per play, with only the Saints worse at 6.1. Atlanta ranks 7th in yards per play on offense at 6 yards per play and should move the ball ell here. Dallas has struggled vs the better teams while beating up on the bad ones. Dallas is now 21-41-2 ATS against better than .500 teams, and 27-11 ATS

The Pittsburgh Steelers have some issues on their offensive line for this game vs the NY Giants. Steelers C Zach Frazier is out with an ankle sprain, and starting RG James Daniels is also sidelined. This opens the door for Dexter Lawrence and his 9 sacks on the season to disrupt Russell Wilson from getting clean looks downfield. Pittsburgh RT Broderick Jones, who has surrendered a league-high 6 sacks, is also a problem. The Steelers under Mike Tomlin have not been good playing outside the division after a win against a poor team that is .400 or worse and posted as a 3 or more point favorite. His team is 8-29 ATS. The Giants have been the best road dog in the NFL as they are 117-87-1 ATS, with a subset of 99-67 ATS. Make the play on the NY Giants.

This was supposed to be a rookie of the year battle at QB with Celeb Williams and Jayden Daniels showcasing a head-to-head battle for rookie of the year. The NFL even flexed the game to the national audience late afternoon time slot. Unfortunately, Daniels rib injury kept him out of practice all week and he is very doubtful to suit up for this game. That leaves Marcus Mariota to take the reigns once again. The Commanders offense did not skip a beat last week as Mariota stepped in and averaged 8.4 yards per pass play. That was against the Carolina Panthers, and it will be much more difficult against the Bears defense. There is also a situation active for this game that plays on certain teams off a bye that has delivered an 82-42-4 ATS mark. (66.1% winners). Make the play on Chicago.

It has become very clear the Tennessee Titans have thrown in the towel on the 2024-25 season at 1-5 on the season. They have eyes on the first overall pick in next year's draft, and tipped their hand this eek by trading DeAndre Hopkins and will insert Nick Westbrook who is a serious downgrade at wide receiver. Tennessee will likely be without starting cornerbacks L’Jarius Sneed and Chidobe Awuzie, and Jared Goff should continue his success. The NFC North is by far the best division in the NFL as the 4 teams have combined to go 17-5 SU and 17-5 ATS when not facing another team in the division. Make the play on Detroit.

The LA Chargers have a great situation tonight in their Monday Night clash in the desert vs. the Arizona Cardinals. NFL games often come down to turnovers, which have a huge part in determining the winner. If you could predict turnovers you would be in the driver's seat. Tonight we lean on history. A team that has played 3 straight clean games (no turnovers), and facing a team that has turned the ball over at least a total of 3 times in their last 3 games have gone an exceptional 93-49-4 ATS in their next game. Make the play on the LA Chargers.

The Baltimore Ravens have the best running tandem in the NFL with Henry and Jackson. This game should be interesting as Baker Mayfield seems to have found a home in Tampa. The Bucs offense put up just shy of 600 yards last week. The Bucs are generating 64% of their total passing yards after the catch, and that transitions to a lot of long plays with explosive receivers such as Evans and Godwin. The Ravens defense has not been that good at keeping opponents off the scoreboard as they are allowing 5ppg on the season. The Bucs offense has reached 30 points this season in 4 of their 6 games. I like the Bucs passing game vs. the Ravens running game. Make the play on Tampa Bay.

This is a Super Bowl rematch between a pair of teams that have sights on going back again. San Francisco has had to overcome a lot of injuries, and I think that may be the story here. Chiefs coach Andy Reid has a menacing record coming off a bye where his team is 32-8 SU. Then you add to the mix that Pat Mahomes is 16-2 ATS in his career hen the line is not more than -2 or an underdog. I'm not interested in betting into that, and it is hard to not jump in with these kind of numbers. Make the play on Kansas City.

There will not be a lot of players on the Carolina Panthers this week. The Panthers scoring margin on the season is -16.7 points per game, while the Washington Commanders have a scoring margin of +5.5. When you add them together you get a +22.2 point per game average better that the Panthers. How can Carolina be competitive? History shows once again why the NFL is a contrarian league. An NFL team that has a scoring margin of -20 or more, and playing in a conference game are 110-59-5 ATS!!!! Make the play on Carolina.

The Minnesota Vikings have run the table as they are 5-0 coming into a crucial division game at home vs. the Detroit Lions. Good teams tend to benefit from coming off their bye week. A team that is unbeaten and coming off their bye, and are favored by single digits are 20-2 ATS. The Vikings have also been one of the best turf teams in the NFL as they are 37-19 ATS on turf in their last 56 games.(13-2 ATS last 15). Make the play on Minnesota.

One of the biggest advantages by a team in the NFL is coming off their bye. The team gets a chance to heal some injuries, and has 13 days to game plan for their opponent. When they are posted as a road favorite, and are on 13 days of rest (off their bye week), they are 112-81-3 ATS. Make the play on Detroit.

The Pittsburgh Steelers opened their season at 3-0. They did so by averaging just 17ppg. The defense carried the team, as they allowed just 8.7ppg. The Steelers lost their last 2 games, as they allowed 23.5ppg, and the offense has some limits as we have seen all season. That isn't good news for Pittsburgh. A team off consecutive losses and playing their next game as a road favorite of fewer than 4 points are 12-29-3 ATS. If there opponent is on 5 or 6 days rest it becomes 5-21-2 ATS, including 0-8-1 ATS since 2012. Make the play on the Las Vegas Raiders.

This game is backed by one of my elite betting situations. Denver is backed by a situation that is 109-45-6 ATS, better than 70%. Make the play on Denver.

This game fits a Monday Night Football situation that is 43-12-3 ATS, and another that is 16-3-1 ATS. Make the play on Kansas City.

This game fits an 87-44 ATS situation, and the play is on Baltimore.

The Tennessee Titans and Miami Dolphins are both banged up coming into this game. The Dolphins have lost QB Tua Tagovailoa to another concussion. His replacements Tim Boyle, and Skylar Thompson have been awful, but they have a capable back up now in Tyler Huntley. This will be a significant upgrade for the Dolphins. Tennessee has lost the best member of their secondary in Chidobe Awuzie, who is out with a groin injury, and Jeffery Simmons is doubtful with an elbow injury, taking away another key defender impacting the Titan's pass rush. QB Will Levis meanwhile has 18 turnovers in just 11 games for the Titans. I see a lot going on here for this game, and most of it tends to favor the Dolphins. Make the play on Miami.

The NFL has long been a contrarian league. The Buffalo Bills are in a spot that depicts that perfectly this week. The Bills have destroyed their last 2 opponents. They beat the Jags 47-10 last week and the Dolphins 31-10 2 weeks ago. The Bills are in one of the worst historical spots I have. When a team scores 30+ points in their last 2 games while allowing fewer than 13 in those same two games, and a couple other factors, they are 0-24 ATS. Make the play on Baltimore.

The San Francisco 49ers have had a lot of early season issues. They are missing so many key players. New England was torn to pieces last week vs. the Jets. A team that was beaten by their last opponent by 20 or more points and playing as a road dog this week are 213-167-6 ATS or cover 56.1% of all games. Make the play on New England.

The Washington Commanders may have found themselves a long term QB, something they have not had in many years. Jayden Daniels and the Commanders offense have not turned the ball over all season. I looked up how many teams start the season without any turnovers through 3 games, and how they do in game 4? There have only been 9 occurrences since 1994 and these teams are 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS. It prompted me to look at all teams that have not had a turnover in 3 straight games. These teams are an outstanding 110-70-5 ATS! (Cover 61.1% of the time). Make the play on Washington.

The Rams are off a major unlikely come from behind win vs. the San Francisco 49ers. Their win probability reached as low as under 5%, but they somehow came out with a win. That sets them up in a huge letdown situation. The Rams are also hurting on the offensive line where they have used double-digit players taking snaps. Chicago is seeing Caleb Williams starting to get a grasp of the NFL and making better decisions. More than any of that though is the Rams are in an 0-25-3 ATS situations based in part on the lack of rushing by their opponents. Make the play on Chicago.

The Indianapolis Colts have a favorable match up vs. the Steelers. It is all about Anthony Richardson. Richardson has struggled vs. the blitz, but thrived otherwise. The Steelers are impossible to run on, and do not rely on the blitz, as they are a bottom 19 team in terms of blitz frequency. The strength of the Colts offense is their offensive line, which I think can neutralize pressure. Richardson loves to stretch the defense, and with a low total here, if he get a couple long ones, the Colts are going to win this game. Make the play on Indianapolis.

The Atlanta Falcons don't get much attention league wide. They have only been on Sunday Night Football 8 times, but since it is a big deal in Atlanta playing on Sunday Night, the Falcons are 6-1 ATS in 7 Sunday Night home games. This will be the 24th such game for the Chiefs and they are 10-13 ATS. Atlanta is coming off an improbable win in their last game winning at the end. The Chiefs have not gotten Travis Kelsey involved, and his age is starting to come in question, as TE's stats drop quickly at the age of 34 and beyond. The Falcons are in a huge 48-9 ATS situation. Make the play on Atlanta.

The Dallas Cowboys were humiliated last week by the New Orleans Saints 44-19. They outplayed the Cowboys by 2.4 yards per play. Prescott has a 4-12-1 ATS mark in a non-division game following a Dallas loss. Baltimore looks like a team that has gone bad, but before you bury them, consider this. Baltimore is 0-2, but are the #1 offense in the league at 417.5 yards per game, and have out-gained their 2 opponents by +111 yards per game. New Orleans ran all over Dallas last week, and Lamar Jackson and company, and Jackson is 20-1 SU vs the NFC in his career. Baltimore has outplayed both their opponents, so the 0-2 is a mirage. A team that starts 0-2 and is playing a team that is not 0-2 are 50-32-1 ATS since 2010. John Harbrough has a better track record on the road than any other coach. He is 81-54-9 ATS. The last 18 times Baltimore has not been a favorite of 3 or more points, they are 15-2-1 ATS. I like Baltimore in this one.

I think fresh in most people's mind is the Houston Texans looking like a top team in the playoffs. They also saw Minnesota as a mediocre middle of the pack team. The Vikings through 2 games, have substantially out-played their expectations on both sides of the ball. They are 2-0 for a couple of reasons. Minnesota ranks 2nd offensively at 6.1 yards per play. Defensively they are 4th in EPA. The Houston offense ranks just 18th. The Texans failed to cover both games. I think these teams are playing a lot differently than what we expected, in a positive way for Minnesota, and a very negative one for Houston. Make the play on Minnesota.

This game is based in large part to the history of an NFL team as they enter week 3 with 2 losses, and the last loss was by fewer than 7 points, as long as they are a home favorite of 3 or fewer points. These teams have been brutal as they are 3-21-2 ATS and have on average failed to cover by 8 points per game. The Bears are in a 145-84 ATS situation as well. Make the play on the Chicago Bears.

It is tough for a team coming off a Sunday overtime game, and then come back for a Thursday game. Little time to prepare, and fatigue in question. A team that played an overtime game on Sunday and now has to come back and play a Thursday game (prior to week 16), are 1-23 ATS. That applies against New England. Make the play on the NY Jets.

The Chicago Bears fell behind 17-0 to Tennessee, and could simply not move the ball all game. Caleb Williams debut was a total bust as he went 14-29 for 93 yards. The Bears rushed 22 times for 84 yards, so the offense generated 177 total yards. The Bears blocked a punt and returned it for a TD, and then got a pick-6 for the win 24-17. So you can be sure the Bears offense looked awful. That being said, this is the NFL and contrarian is usually the way to go. History proves that time and again. Teams that win as a favorite and gained 200 yards or less are 35-20-1 ATS in the NFL when playing to a line of less than +8. Take the Chicago Bears.

The Pittsburgh Steelers said they consider themselves a running team, and they proved it in week 1 as they ran 41 times, more than any other team. The Steelers however have been haunted playing non-division games after a win where they are 9-32-1 ATS. If they line up against a less than .400 team they are a woeful 4-20 ATS in that same spot. Denver has always had a huge home field advantage at altitude. That serves them well in the first 2 weeks of the season when opponents are still getting in shape. Denver is 42-9 SU in their last 51 at home in the first 2 weeks of the season. They are also 17-3-3 ATS as long as they are not favored by 3 or more points in the same spot. Make the play on Denver.

The Chicago Bears fell behind 17-0 to Tennessee, and could simply not move the ball all game. Caleb Williams debut was a total bust as he went 14-29 for 93 yards. The Bears rushed 22 times for 84 yards, so the offense generated 177 total yards. The Bears blocked a punt and returned it for a TD, and then got a pick-6 for the win 24-17. So you can be sure the Bears offense looked awful. That being said, this is the NFL and contrarian is usually the way to go. History proves that time and again. Teams that win as a favorite and gained 200 yards or less are 35-20-1 ATS in the NFL when playing to a line of less than +8. Take the Chicago Bears.

This game fits a situation that is 111-68 ATS and the play is on New England.

The Cleveland Browns looked awful last week. Watson did nothing, but there is always next week. Many have soured on the Browns, so there is line value here. There is also this: Play on a week 2 team if they were home last week and away this week if they lost last game by 10 or more points as long as the line is less than 13 points. These teams are 23-2 ATS and the Browns qualify. Jacksonville is in a horrible situation. Play against a home favorite that lost their last game in games 1-4 as long as the line is less than -4. These teams are 83-144-11 ATS. Make the play on Cleveland.

The Dallas Cowboys offense might regress this season. Dallas lost All-Pro LT Tyron Smith and C Tyler Biadasz and the Cleveland defense is certainly good enough to exploit those new weaknesses. I think the Cleveland offense is going to be much better with Deshaun Watson healthy, as despite his detractors, his numbers are better than Flacco's, and the Browns brought in Ken Doresy who is a great match for Watson, as he loves running from a spread offense. The Bills offense was much better with Dorsey calling plays than Joe Brady. The Browns may have the best offensive line in the NFL with Jack Conklin coming back, to add to a pair of all-pro players on the line. Dallas played horrible on the road last year as they won games vs. low level teams. Their 4 road wins were against Carolina, Washington, the Giants and Chargers, to finish 4-5. The Browns went 8-1 at home last season, and 7-1-1 ATS. I like Cleveland in this one.

The Chicago Bears have been looking for a QB for a long time. They used the number 1 overall draft pick to select Caleb Williams. The Bears fan base is excited, and probably should be, but Williams first game is going to be difficult. Tennessee does a lot of things wrong, but they upgraded their secondary substantially, with good depth as well, and they are capable of shutting down the Bears highly regarded receiving corp. The Titans can also generate pressure, so this might not be a good debut for Williams. There have been lots of optimism before him, but in almost every case the QB under performed.The first overall pick in the draft as a starter in game 1 is 2-21 ATS, including 0-14-1 ATS in the last 15. Make the play on Tennessee.