Last year San Francisco went into the 4th quarter of the Super Bowl looking like they were going to be the winner. They collapsed and were predicted to be back again this year. That doesn't look like it has a chance after getting blown out by Miami at home last week. Jimmy G. was even benched, as things were extremely ugly. Looking ahead this lie was -3 a week ago, and it is now +3.5. That is just way too much movement off 1 game. This is a contrary league, and despite of what is happening thus far this season, the Niners are still a very good football team, and I expect they respond after getting their heads handed to them last week. Typically this is the case in the NFL. The Niners are a toxic public team right now. Like a hot piece of coal, no one wants to touch it. There have been 351 burning embers before them. Those teams which failed to cover the point spread by 27 or more points came back the next week and went 195-145-11 ATS covering 57.4% of all games. This has been even stronger since division realignment in 2002 where these teams have since gone 132-86-8 ATS or 60.6% winners. (18-5-2 ATS if the line is less than +7). Make the play on San Francisco.

The NFL is typically a contrarian league, but there are exceptions, and they get my attention when the exception involves turnovers, the most predictive stat of all in the NFL. The problem is, trying to predict how the ball will bounce isn't always easy. The one lesson to go by, is history. It is a fact that a team's chances of covering goes up with each game that passes where they committed 0 turnovers.

After 1 turnover free game    50.4% ATS
After 2                       54.6% ATS
After 3                       65.5% ATS
After 4                       69.4% ATS
After 5                       77.8% ATS
After 6                      100.0% ATS
After 7                      100.0% ATS

7 is the NFL record so it ends there.
The Packers have completed 4 games on their schedule turnover free which places them at the 69.4% mark. While this is just 1 game, and anything can happen, turnovers are essential to outcome, and the above is the best qualifying way I have found to get a handle on the likely outcome, and is turnover based. Make the play on Green Bay.     

The Minnesota Vikings are off to a 1-4 start, but they have covered 3 of the 5 games. The problem is their are 4 unbeaten teams in the NFL, and 3 of the 4 Minnesota losses have come against them, including a pair by a single point. Granted the Vikings have not looked great, but when 4 of 5 games have come vs Super Bowl contenders that are a combined 16-2 it has kept them under the radar. The Falcons 0-5 start put an end to Dan Quinn on the sidelines and in comes Raheem Morris. The league has changed a lot since he was last a head coach in Tampa Bay in 2011. He was 17-31 SU there, so not sure what the Falcons think they have. QB Matt Ryan is beginning to look old and has not thrown a TD pass in 2 straight games. The last time that happened? His rookie season! Morris left off losing 10 straight games outside of his division, covering just 1. Meanwhile Mike Zimmer is 21-3-1 ATS in his last 25 coming off a loss, if it is not a division game, unbeaten in this role at home. Make the play on Minnesota.

The Cleveland Browns have won just 2 of the last 28 meetings vs the Steelers in Pittsburgh. That includes the last 16 meetings where they have not won even once. This is a match up advantage for Pittsburgh. The Browns have a suspect secondary and if they don't get pressure they do not fare very well. Pittsburgh allows the 7th least sack rate and are right near the top of the league in QB hit rate. QB Baker Mayfield is dealing with injuries to his ribs and shoulder. While the line may seem fair,, there is some hidden value here on the Steelers. Make the play on Pittsburgh.The Cleveland Browns have won just 2 of the last 28 meetings vs the Steelers in Pittsburgh. That includes the last 16 meetings where they have not won even once. This is a match up advantage for Pittsburgh. The Browns have a suspect secondary and if they don't get pressure they do not fare very well. Pittsburgh allows the 7th least sack rate and are right near the top of the league in QB hit rate. QB Baker Mayfield is dealing with injuries to his ribs and shoulder. While the line may seem fair,, there is some hidden value here on the Steelers. Make the play on Pittsburgh.

Right now the optics are high for both these teams. The Cleveland win in Dallas has them looking strong, but truthfully, Dallas has a boatload of under-achieving talent, and what is crazy at 1-3 they trail the division leading Eagles by just half game, in the NFC Least. A quick review of the Brown's resume offers less than meets the eye. They were destroyed by Baltimore 38-6, barely survived Cincinnati at home winning 35-30, and trailed Washington at home in the 4th quarter. The Colts have won 3 straight by a combined score of 83-29, and have a legit defense, and enough offense behind Rivers. The telling story here is the Browns have faced 1 legit defense and scored 6 point. I don't see them getting much room in this one, and their defense is average at best. The Browns put up nearly 40ppg the last 3 weeks, but this isn't Cincinnati, Washington, or Dallas. The Browns are allowing 31.5ppg, and are in trouble here. Make the play on indianapolis.

MREAST NFL MONDAY ODDS CRUSHER

The New England Patriots took a blow losing Cam Newton to covid-19. That means Brian Hoyer will get the nod at QB. Hoyer has an ugly recent resume as he is 0-16 in his last 16 starts. The Chiefs are the best team in the NFL, but there is a way to out-perform the line against them, and you can be certain that Bill Belichick understands this. Since the start of last season, the Chiefs have an amazing line of demarcation. They are 14-0 ATS when their opponent rushes the ball 25 times or less, and 1-7 ATS when the opponent rushes the ball 26 times or more. New England is all about the run, and their ability to run the ball tonight will determine their fate. New England has the #2 rushing offense in the league, and he beat Kansas City 23-16 employing that strategy. The idea of course is to limit the KC possessions, and keep the ball out of Mahomes hands. New England is 29-10 ATS in their last 39 games as a dog of 6 or more and 6-1 ATS under Belichick as a double digit dog. Belichick is also 82-55-4 ATS with revenge, and is 9-4 in his career vs unbeaten teams. (8-1 ATS if prior to week 7). This is the ultimate ugly duckling, the best team vs the best coach. Somehow Belichick and his team seems to rise to the occasion. Make the play on New England.

Who would have thought a 3-0 team would have a QB controversey? Thus is the case with the Chicago Bears. Nick Foles will be the QB going forward. The issue with Foles has always been this. When he is not the man and comes off the bench he has been elite. When he becomes the man, he really stumbles. Indianapolis has the best rated defense in the NFL, but they have also played a schedule of teams that are 1-8 on the season. The same can be said off the Bears who have also played a schedule of teams that are 1-8 on the season. Chicago already has set an NFL record coming from 16 or more points down in the 4th quarter to win both times. The luck will run out here. It could be less than ideal conditions in Chicago Sunday with some rain, and 20 MPH wind gusts. The Colts are the better team on both sides of the ball, and Foles has proven to be a liability throughout his career when he becomes the man. Make the play on Indianapolis.

The Buffalo Bills have started the season at 3-0 for the 2nd straight season. It is the 1st time in 28 years. The Bills went on to start 9-3 a year ago, before falling in 4 of their last 5 including a playoff loss to Houston. Things just look different this season, especially Josh Allen who looks like he has taken the next step. Las Vegas was impressive in its home opener but this team has a lot of injuries on the offensive side of the ball. Vegas QB Derek Carr continues to be fools gold. He has some big games, but some awful ones, and his 2 fumbles last week killed the Raiders chances at New England. The defense is really struggling and I think the Bill's defense has under-performed so far, and could be much better in this game. The Raiders have had 17 losing seasons the last 18 years, and are still climbing the hill, while the Bills have gotten over it, and are just the better team here on both sides. Make the play on Buffalo.

The Jacksonville Jaguars played relatively well in their first 2 games of the season. They beat Indianapolis in their opener, and took Tennessee to the final gun in game 2, before losing 33-30. Last week the wheels fell off vs the Miami Dolphins in a 31-13 loss. Dropped passes, offensive line debacles, and the inability to convert 3rd downs spelled doom for the Jags in week 3. The Jags defense is getting little pressure and has now allowed 30 points or more the last 2 weeks. There are not a lot of reasons to be buying on the Jags right now. The Bengals have not been able to protect Joe Burrow at all. The NFL has been a grave yard for winless home favorites of 3 points or less prior to week 5 as they are a woeful 24-51-4 ATS. This game should be a toss up, and with situational support. Specifically game 4 of more than -1 not off a bye and a winning percentage below .500 are 33-68-2 ATS. Make the play on Jacksonville.

Russell Wilson has set an all-time record by throwing 4 or more TDs in each of his first 3 games. He is looking like a hands down MVP after 3 weeks, but it is a long season. This may be the perfect spot to play against him. They will be playing in what could be heavy rain in Miami and high winds on Sunday. The Seahawks will also be playing on the East Coast, and high humidity. Lost in the shuffle is the fact that Seattle is allowing 2 yards shy of 500 per game. The Dolphins have had 10 days to prepare for this one, and Seattle is also off consecutive games vs Dallas and New England that went to the wire. Seattle has been out-gained by 89 yards per game on the season, so what Wilson has done so far, is almost 100 yards less than what opponents have done to Seattle. Big overlay here, and I will play on Miami.

The Denver Broncos decided that Drew Lock was their best option at QB. The offense was not all that great with him, but since he went down with an injury the offense has been pathetic generating just 4 yards a play. Former Boise St. QB Brett Rypien will be under center for this one. I would imagine the schemes will be simplified when the Broncos have the ball. Rypien was undrafted, and failed to even make the roster, so an already sluggish offense could become much worse. While the Jets do not do many things well, they have been very good getting pressure. The Jets are the only team in the NFL that has not had the lead in any game on the season, but that may prove fruitful tonight, as an NFL team that has gone at least 2 straight games without having the lead are 256-211-16 ATS or cover just shy of 55% of all games (56% at home), from a near 500 game sample size. The Broncos have a myriad of key injuries, including their top receiving option in Courtland Sutton. The Jets have now become a 1 point favorite and Thursday Night favorites are 142-100 ATS. make the play on the NY Jets.

A lot of eyes are on Devante Adams for this game. Adams is crucial to the Packer offense, as he has 17 receptions in 20 targets on the season, in just 108 snaps. That means Rogers has targeted him in 1 of every 6 offensive plays. That puts added pressure on the rest of the pedestrian Packer receivers, who will be covered by better defenders. The Packers list Adams as doubtful, and playing on turf this week, will likely mean he is sidelined. The Packers have numerous key injuries, and while Rodgers has come up big in his first 2 games, against weak defenses, this is a much bigger challenge. New Orleans is much better than they have shown thus far. This is nothing new for the Saints that for some reason struggle through the first 2 weeks of the season where they have gone 4-17-1 ATS since 2010. The awakening seems to kick in from that point on where they are 88-59-1 ATS.  The Packers have looked great producing 40+ points in each of their first 2 games, but they will be challenged here by a New Orleans team, that overall is better than they have shown. Make the play on New Orleans.

This is going to be an ugly, unfavorable pick. One of those hold your nose, NFL specials. The Detroit Lions are 34-98 SU in their last 132 road games. The Detroit Lions have now set an NFL record as they have now lost 4 straight games in which they had a 10 or more point lead in any of them. Meanwhile, in Arizona Kyler Murray is getting rave reviews. He is not only connecting with DeAndre Hopkins, but he has run 21 times for 158 yards. The Cards are being touted as the most improved team in the league. That has resulted in a public blitz of the Cards, who are taking over 70% of the bets. People are lining up like it is free money. Well, the Lions are bad, but in the dirty road numbers comes this tidbit. Detroit is 46-32-2 ATS on the road to a line of +5 or more. Week 3 NFL teams off 2 against the spread losses and have 0 wins, and their combined against the spread margin is -12 or worse are 74-43-1 ATS. If they are facing an opponent that allows fewer than 35ppg they are 60-30-1 ATS, including 18-$ ATS if their opponent is off 2 ATS wins, and 15-2 ATS if they are a dog. These numbers don't look like something the betting public has seen, and by pushing the line to 6, I'm buying ugly. Make the play on Detroit.

The New England Patriots came up a yard short of being 2-0 to start the season. They are a very difficult team to beat when they are coming off a loss. The Pats are 38-18-2 ATS off a loss since 2004, including 29-7-1 ATS if they are not favored by -7 or more. (7-0 ATS in this time frame vs a team off a dog win. Las Vegas is not only off a home dog win, they opened their new stadium by taking down a very good New Orleans team. That will be tough enough to overcome a letdown, but on top of it they have to travel on short rest all across the country to New England. Cam Newton was a great signing by New England who always seems to come up with what they need. The last 4 times a road dog won as a MNF home dog, they have lost all 4 by an average of -21ppg. Belichick has a way of galvanizing his team off a loss, and the situation looks very ripe here. Make the play on New England.

There is a lot to unpack in this game, as injuries have taken a lot of strength away from these teams. The San Francisco 49ers may be without 3 defensive linemen. I think this is a good spot for Daniel Jones, as despite the loss of Sheppard, the Giants still have a wealth of capable receivers. Jones is often under extreme pressure, and makes a lot of mistakes when that is the case, but the 49ers defense is not only down 3 linemen, they are without Sherman in the secondary. Jimmy Garoppolo is likely out as well, and that means Nick Mullins will be under center.Deebo Samuel is out and George Kittles has been limited in practice, and the fact that the Niners claim the field caused the injuries last week, here they are back at the same field, so perhaps their err on the side of caution and hold Kittles out? The Giants aren't as bad as many think, and this simply is not the 49ers team that was in the Super Bowl last year. I will make the play on the NY Giants.

While Joe Burrow has covered his first 2 games in the NFL, his performance sure has not been that complimentary. he has put the ball in the air just shy of 100 times already in 2 games, and averages a league low in yards per pass. The one thing the Eagles have is a secondary that can slow down the Bengals top targets. The Bengals have some issues on their front line, and I would think that Malik Jackson and Fletcher Cox are going to be in his grill all game. Carson Wentz has been no picnic through 2 games himself. That part of this match up is not as foreboding as the Eagles ground game that is right near the top of the league, against a Bengals run stop unit that ranks among the worst. The Eagles look a lot worse than they have actually been as they have a negative 5 turnover margin through 2 games, which will not continue going forward. I think this line has been fueled by the way the Eagles have burned bettors, while the Bengals have rewarded them. I was waiting for this to get to -4 and it has, and I will make the play on Philadelphia.

The Sunday Night Football game is between a pair of heavyweights as New England heads to Seattle to take on the Seahawks. Seattle QB Russell Wilson is off a huge game completing 31 of 35 passes with 4 TDs and 0 INT's. While Wilson stole all the fanfare, and rightfully so, the Seattle defense was brutally bad. The defense allowed 506 yards. They couldn't guard anyone as 3 receivers had over 100 yards, and 4 caught passes good for 20 yards or more. New England won their first game with Cam Newton under center. He played well, and showed he was healthy running for 75 yards and a pair of TDs. The New England ground game amassed over 200 yards. A team rushing for 175 or more yards in game one is 51-35-1 ATS in game 2. Seattle is known for being an elite home team. That is due to them going 39-6 SU from 2012-16. They have since been 14-10 SU or about average. The Seattle defense is really bad, and getting another near perfect performance from Wilson against a Bill Belichick defense and game plan isn't likely. There will also be no fans so what ever home field edge the Seahawks are maintaining is diminished. This game implies a +7 line on New England if fans were in the stands, and I just don't see it. Make the play on New England.

A pair of playoff hopefuls the Minnesota Vikings and the Indianapolis Colts will square off in Indianapolis. This immediately becomes a pivotal game as the loser will move to 0-2 on the season. Philip Rivers had a mostly good debut in Indianapolis last week, but once again he is haunted by turnovers. Rivers 2 INTs put him at 200 for his career, and moved his overall record to 77-84 SU, from the 5th year of his career to the present. He should once again have strong passing numbers vs a Minnesota team that saw their weak secondary exposed by Aaron Rodgers last week. I'm going to ride with a lot of very strong bounce back situations, with one being 102-41-4 ATS. Another is a week 2 specific situation that shows that a team that lost in week 1 as a favorite are 44-27-2 ATs in week 2. That goes to 30-11-2 ATS if the line is fewer than +6 and since 2010 that has been even stronger at 14-1-1 ATS. Make the play on Minnesota.

The Denver Broncos host the Tennessee Titans on Monday Night football. There is a lot of excitement for this Tennessee team, coming off a strong playoff performance from last year. They were a fairly ordinary team coming into the playoffs and the hype is in full force this season, and I think that leaves the team overrated early in the season. Derrick Henry had an amazing season, especially in the playoffs. He carried the ball over 300 times and when you add in the playoffs he was on the doorstep of 400. Since 2011 there have been 11 players top the 300 carry mark and their next season was dramatically worse. There was just 1 of the 11 that increased their rushing yards the following year and that was Marshawn Lynch. Despite increasing his yardage he did so at a price, 4.2 yards per carry vs 5.9 the previous year. Including Lynch the average yards per carry dropped from 4.75 to 3.99. The average yards gained dropped on average by 762! Denver has a long history of winning early at home. They are 33-4 SU and 22-11-4 ATS at home in weeks 1 and 2. The simple reason is early in the season most NFL players are not in game shape yet, and playing in the altitude in Denver really takes its toll. When the line is -7 or fewer points that jumps to 19-5-4 ATS, including 10-1-3 ATS at -3 or less. (4-0-1 ATS as pick or dog). This year I think that advantage is even greater with training camps limited due to covid-19, and no exhibition games. Good spot tonight for the Broncos, make the play on Denver.

This one opened at -4.5 for the Saints, but th Brady lovers, and the hype of the Tampa Bay offense has cut a point off the opener. This is a tough year to field a team with so many key transitional players, as they have had less time on the field, and no practice games to get a sense of timing down. Tom Brady has seen his yards per pass attempt decline in each of the past 4 years from 8.2 to 7.9 to 7.6 to 6.6. His 24 TD passes a year ago were his fewest since 2006. He ill have a much more talented receiving core this season, but in this game, will he be able to take advantage? I believe the Saints defense could be the best in the entire NFL this season. This game will be influenced by the Saints bringing in Malcolm Jenkins. He is the top slot defender in the NFL. Brady has had Welker, and Edelman as his favorite targets pretty much his entire career. I think Jenkins will shutdown the Buc's solid slot receiver in Chris Goodwin. I also think the fact that Brady no longer throws the long ball, as his depth of target last year was 8.0 ranking 28th, and Mike Evans benefitted from gunslingers Fitzpick-6, and Winston who threw downfield a lot. Where Brady will be an immediate upgrade is in turnovers. Brady knows how to take care of the football, and Winston threw 30 INTs a year ago, and also lost 5 fumbles. The Bucs defense looked bad last year but was actually very good. They had to defend short fields on 35 turnovers, and spent too much time on the field, and will improve substantially this year. The Saints offense should be ahead of most, as they have pretty much the same team as a year ago, while Tampa may be the most impacted, as they have a lot of new faces. The Saints are one of few teams that are talented enough in the secondary to match up with Tampa Bay, and the Bucs OL is going to get Brady sacked a lot more than he is used to. This is a good opening spot for the Saints, especially with the public putting their hand on the scales. Make the play on New Orleans.

The San Francisco 49ers come into the 2020-21 NFL season as the Super Bowl loser. They coughed up a 10 point 4th quarter lead. Things have not gone well for the previous year's Super Bowl loser as they are 4-16 ATS over the last 20 years in game 1. Arizona has covered 5 straight vs San Francisco, and have covered 4 straight on the road in this series. I think Arizona is going to be considerably improved with Murray a bit more mature. Arizona Cliff Kingsbury certainly thinks so, as he promises to push the pace, and the Cards were already ranked 4th last year in that department. He now has a top shelf core of receivers with DeAndre Hopkins, Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk. San Francisco comes into game 1 pretty banged up. I think the Cards are going to surprise a lot of people here this year, and have played well in San Francisco. Make the play on Arizona.

The Green Bay Packers are 11-3 and are almost a TD underdog in Minnesota. There are a lot of reasons for that. The Packers are being out-gained substantially by opponents on the season, and in their last 6 games has out-gained just Washington, while being out-gained by the LA Chargers, Carolina, SF, NYG, and Chicago. long ago the St. Louis Cardinals have coined the fastest team on turf. Well, Minnesota is the best team on turf. the Vikings on turf as a less than double-digit favorite prior to week 17 are 27-3 SU and 27-3 ATS (14-0 SU/ATS lately). The Packers are not or never have been a good turf team. They are 78-50-2 ATS on the road playing on grass and 53-74-1 ATS on turf. Rodgers is 7-18 ATS in his last 25 as a road dog. The first game saw GB get out to a 21-0 lead less than a minute into the 2nd quarter at home and had to hold on for a 21-16 win. That game saw Minnesota fumble a season-high 5 times (lost 2), but disrupted 3 other drives, and had 1 INT. Cousins 70.5% completions on the season was 14-32, and the Vikings were penalized 100 yards. Minnesota was 0-2 in the red-zone, while GB was 3-3, but did not sniff the red-zone for the last 44 minutes of the game. This is a huge revenge game for Minnesota, and they are in a very favorable matchup. Make the play on Minnesota.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have been rolling despite one of the worst offenses in the league. They have gotten by with defense and an inordinate amount of forced turnovers as their opponent has coughed the ball up 33 times in 13 games. Looking at the 8 wins the combined record of those opponents is 33-70-1. The combined record of their opponents in their 5 losses is 48-17. The defense allowed 26.4ppg in the losses and 14.8ppg in the wins. Do questions arise as to just how good this defense really is? I would think so. Buffalo is 9-4 on the season, and the eye-test says they are the better team. The Bills simply don't turn the ball over (just 2 turnovers in their last 8 games). Make the play on Buffalo.

If there was ever team in a huge flat spot or breather alert it is the San Francisco 49ers. They are off 3 consecutive games vs Green Bay, Baltimore, and New Orleans and after this one, they face the Rams and Seahawks. Atlanta has an offense that can compete vs a big line, and the Niners believe it or nor are a double-digit favorite for just the 2nd time in 6 years! (did not cover either). The Niners will be without most of their secondary and they are also down 3 defensive linemen. Falcons are 3-2 in their last 5 hames and continue to play hard. Certainly could see a competitive game here, and the Falcons also have great backdoor potential. Make the play on Atlanta.

The Baltimore Ravens are off 3 straight games vs elite teams. They will play their last 2 games vs elite teams. Sandwiched between all of that are the NY Jets. If there was ever a chance for a "breather alert" this is it for the Ravens. A full 60 minute "A" game performance is unlikely. Lamar Jackson is also on the injury report with a quad injury but he will play. I doubt he will be running as often as usual. The Jets run defense is among the best in the league, and without a totally healthy Jackson, they should get enough stops to be able to stay in the game. This has never been a food spot for the Ravens who are now 12-0 SU but kist 1-11 ATS as a favorite of -10.5 or more since 2010. favorites have dominated Thursday Night NFL Football, but not this year and home teams in 2019 have won just 53.5% SU the lowest mark in at least 28 years. Home favorites this year are just 47-73-6 ATS and 3-6 ATS on Thursday. The public has pushed this game into line value for the visitor. Make the play on the NY Jets.

The reason the Bucs have 5 wins is Jameis Winston. The reason the Bucs have 7 losses is Jameis Winston. he has thrown multiple interceptions in half the Bucs games, and that is why this team is on a roller-coaster ride. He threw nome last week, which is ominous because the 3 previous times he did so he threw a combined total of 8 in his next game. he has 20 for the season. he has also been sacked 40 times on the season. he has thrown 78 INTs in 60 career games so this is nothing new. The Colt's blessing comes in disguise. They have lost 6 games this season and 5 have been by 2,3,4,6, and 7 points and last week's loss to Tennessee was because of bad things happening late in the game. The blessing is Adam Vinatieri is injured. He had a great career but has likely kicked in his last game. Vinatieri missed 6 extra points and 8 FGs this season. That means he left 30 points on the field and 5 Indy losses came by a total of 20 points. If the Colys had just an average kicker they would be 9-3 right now. They will have one here. make the play in Indianapolis.

Probably the hardest thing to conceive is that the Bears will be an underdog for just the 3rd time this season. That speaks volumes to me just how overrated this team is after an impressive record last year. They are off a pair of wins to weak teams and limped across the finish line in each one. Dallas was totally humiliated by Buffalo last week and lost to New England the week before in a rain game. Dallas maybe 6-6 but they have a scoring margin on the season of +6.2. That ranks 3rd in the NFC, less than a half-point from #2 Minnesota. I expect the Cowboys to put up a huge effort here in this one. Dallas is out-gaining opponents by 111 yards per game, while Chicago is being out-gained by 32 yards a game. That is 143 yards per game from the line of scrimmage which translates to about 10 points. Clearly, the Cowboys are the advantaged team here in this one. make the play on Dallas.

The NFL decided with the start of the 2006 season they would add a night game to the Thanksgiving Day slate. Since the onset the favorite has been 10-3 SU and 9-4 ATS in these games. Home dogs have certainly struggled on Thanksgiving at 10-21 ATS and division home dogs have not covered a game since 2003 at 0-6 ATS. Home favorites on Thanksgiving with same season revenge are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS. When a game involves a home dog and a total of 43 or more the home dogs are 1-18 SU and 4-15 ATS, including 0-6 ATS to a line of +7 or more (watch line), failing to cover by 25.7ppg. Make the play on New Orleans.

The Green Bay Packers will head to San Francisco to take on the 49ers. This game has huge playoff implications, as the winner will have a leg up on a potential playoff bye. The Packers will be rested, but at the same time this will be their 3rd road game in their last 4, and the road has not been as good for Aaron Rodgers over his career as playing at Lambeau. Rodgers is just 20-25 SU in his last 45 road games. he is also just 8-17 SU as an underdog. The Packers are 8-2 but surprisingly have been out-gained from the line of scrimmage by 30 yards per game, while the Niners have out-gained opponents by 133 yards per contest. The Niners are allowing just 143 yards in the air per game, and Rodgers is likely to underperform in this one. this game looks closer than it should as a dig down into the stats shows a clear decisive edge to the Niners. The Packers are just 6-10 ATS in their last 16 off their bye vs .500 or better teams. Make the play on San Francisco.

The NY Jets have put together a 2 game winning streak. they have proven that they can beat bad teams in the NY Giants and Washington Redskins. let's not forget this team has lost 5 games this season by 14 or more points. Sam Darnold has 11 TDs to 10 INTs so far, and his last 3 opponents have been terrible teams. Jon Gruden is doing a food job rebuilding this Oakland team and they are on a 3 game winning streak, and a playoff contender. QB Derek Carr is having a strong season with 15 Rds to 5 INTs and a passer rating of 105.2. His career numbers vs the Jets show 3-0 ATS a 121.6 passer rating with 9 TDs and 0 INTs. The Jets average just 248 yards per game and scored 6 vs Philly, 0 vs NE, and 15 vs Jacksonville, as well as just 18 vs Miami in a loss. Make the play on Oakland. 

It is hard to believe at 4-6 on the season the LA Chargers have control of their own playoff destiny with 2 games vs KC and 1 with Oakland. That being said, their season is on the line tonight. The Chargers were projected for 10 wins this season, and the 4-6 record points to a lot of value tonight. The Chargers have not lost any game this season by more than 7 points, and no team has scored more than 27 points on them in 10 games. What has killed this team is 5 turnovers in goal-to-goal situations. Expect a full dose of Melvin Gordon tonight. He is rounding into form and will be key vs a KC run defense ranked #31 in the league. Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram have recorded 9 sacks combined in the last 4 games. The Chargers spent the entire week at the Air Force Academy to get acclimated to the 7000 ft. altitude in Mexico City and the Chargers were favorites in their first 6 games, and are now playing their 5th straight as a dog. Each of the Chiefs last 8 games have all been decided by 7 points or fewer, so this is not last season. This line says KC would be favored by better than a TD at home, and neither teams has been better than a TD vs anyone for most of the season. The Chiefs and Mahomes have been the sexy pick by bettors and over 60% are backing them here driving even more value into the line. make the play on The LA Chargers.

Lamar Jackson is a freak athlete, and each game he gets better and better and has become the most dangerous dual-threat QB perhaps in NFL history. Jackson has run for 702 yards already through 9 games, and barring injury will break Michael Vick's record of 1,039. The Ravens offense is getting better than their 33.3ppg average on the season and scarier still is the defense is starting to come around. The Ravens have allowed 16.5ppg in their last 4. They scored 37 on New England, a team that had better defensive marks than any team in NFL history. The Ravens are now 13-3 in his 16 NFL regular season starts. The Ravens are clock consumers at home where they average an NFL best 36:05 of possession limiting opponents to 23:55. Houston is 6-3 on the season and while their offense has been good all year the defense has been very ordinary. I think they are going to struggle on the road to slow down this emerging freight train. Make the play on Baltimore.

I am once again hedging here as Detroit QB Matthew Stafford is still questionable with a hip injury. The line says the oddsmakers are saying he is playing. If dor some reason he does not this will go to -6.5 or -7. I like the line even with Stafford playing if he is out we get a grand slam! The Cowboys have the most talented roster in the league on both sides of the ball yet here they are at 5-4, and making the playoffs is still in question. Detroit is an average team that throws the ball a bit better than average, but with Stafford's health in question, if he plays may be injured enough to make them average. Dallas out-gains opponents by 114 yards per game and despite New England coming up next this won't be a look ahead, especially off a loss, and I think the alarm will have sounded now. If they want to make the playoffs this has to be a win. Dallas is 4-1 ATS this year vs teams that are .500 or less and 0-3 ATS vs winning ones. They win vs the .500 or less teams by 15ppg on average. Make the play on Dallas.

This one will make you cringe I'm sure. The Buffalo Bills are off to a 6-2 start but when you look at their 2nd easiest NFL schedule it doesn't say much. They have 6 wins vs a schedule of teams that are 9-42 on the season. I know Cleveland is 2-6 and has looked awful, but 2 wins is better than the average team that Buffalo beats, think about that one. The Browns will get another playmaker back as Kareem Hunt has served his 8 game suspension and he is certainly capable of being an impact player. This game has "stink" written all over it. The public is buying in high with Buffalo, no one can believe Cleveland is favored. I've been to this rodeo before, not taking the bait! It is tare for a 2-6 team to be favored over 6-2 team, however, when it occurs, BEWARE! A team with a winning percentage of less than .375 that is favored over a team that is greater than .700 from week 8 on (legitimizing the records), are 13-2 ATS. If the line is from -1.5 and up they are 12-1 SU and ATS. Hold your nose and make the play on Cleveland.

I just have too much stuff for this game to pass it up. I have a 102-44 ATS situation on Cincinnati as well as a big dog off a bye situation that is 21-1 ATS and a negative letdown situation against Baltimore that is 2-22 ATS. This is the definition of an ugly pick. Make the play on Cincinnati.

The Dallas Cowboys certainly have had their way vs the NY Giants. QB Dak Prescott in particular who is 69-101 for 1,053 yards 9 TDs and 0 INTs in his last 3. Giants QB Daniel Jones has had some moments but is still a work in progress with an 84.4 passer rating 10 TDs and 7 INTs on the season. Dallas come in off of their bye, and this situation fits tonight:

rest >= 10 and p:points >= 35 and o:WP < 60 and line >= -7 and WP >40 and F

SU: 28-0-0 (12.21, 100.0%) Teaser Records
ATS: 27-0-1 (7.82, 100.0%)

as well as this MNF example:

p:W and MNF and rest=14 and F and date>20031006

SU: 15-0-0 (18.07, 100.0%) Teaser Records
ATS: 13-1-1 (11.60, 92.9%) avg line: -6.5

Also MNF road favorites are 27-16 ATS last 43 from -5.5 to -10.5.

Make the play on Dallas.

The Atlanta Falcons have just never gotten over their Super Bowl meltdown. Looking at these weapons on this team on the offensive side of the ball is scary, but the results have been poor. looking at the defense spells out the problems this team is having. The Falcons have allowed 41.3ppg in their last 3 games, and on the season has sacked the QB just 5 times. That is historically bad as the last time a team entered game 8 with 5 sacks or less was in 2009. This is a QB driven league and if there is no pressure, the opposing offense is going to go off. Atlanta is allowing a league-worst 54.9% on 3rd down conversions. How important is pressure? There are currently 4 teams in the NFL with fewer than 10 total sacks (Atlanta, Miami, Cincinnati, and the NY Jets). Those teams are 2-24 SU and 8-18 ATS. Atlanta is allowing opposing QBs to average a 115.82 passer rating, which is Hall of Fame level. Seattle has a great passing attack and is 163-105 ATS in their last 268 games when sacked 2 or fewer times. The Seahawks since the beginning of the 2012 season are deadly off a loss at 24-10-2 ATS (6-0 ATS lately). That goes to 19-5-2 ATS if the opponent is .140 to less than unbeaten. No look-ahead here with the Bucs on deck. Make the play on Seattle.

The Denver Broncos are 2-5 on the season and have now dealt Emmanuel Sanders. Sanders was the #1 WR for an offense that is already brutally bad. That means more attention for Courtland Sutton, and the weak Denver offense just took a step back. The message to the team is we are throwing the towel in on 2019, and sticking draft picks which seems to be the new NFL model for rebuilding. Moreover, the offensive line is injured and Flacco is under pressure on almost every snap. The Colts have gotten a lot more than expected out of QB Jacoby Brissett. Brissett has a 101 passer rating, with 14 TDs and just 3 INTs as he has done a great job finishing the drives. The diminished Bronco passing game is going to put more pressure on an average running game. The Broncos have scored 16 or fewer points in 5 of 7 games, and just 22 total points the last 2. Von Miller has just 2.5 sacks and he may be showing signs of slowing down. Indy os 4-2 and after this game, they have Pittsburgh, Miami, and Jacksonville and if things go their way they could be 8-2 heading for Houston a week before Thanksgiving. Denver is likely to make a lackluster effort here, as management has sent the signal that this season is a bust. make the play on Indianapolis.

The Seattle Seahawks are 5-1 on the season and have had a bunch of games go down the wire. Seattle owns a pair of wins by a single point, another by 2 points, and another by 4 points. They have been separated by 8 points in games where they went 4-0. despite a 6-2 turnover advantage in their last 2 games, both wins vs the Rams and Browns, they won them by a combined 5 points and have also had a 1 point winning verdict against Cincinnati even though they also had a 2 turnover edge. Needless to say, the Seahawks have been living on the edge of trouble all season. What would this line be of the were 3-3? 2-4? each of those records is quite plausible. Russell Wilson is having an MVP season and still, the Seahawks are eking by. Seattle's poor run defense is just what the Ravens ordered as they run for over 200 yards a contest at 5.5 yards per attempt. This will help limit the damage Wilson can do as the Ravens should own the clock in this game. Seattle is living on the reputation of the 12th man at home when they went through a 5-year stretch posting a 39-6 SU record at home, but have lost 6 in 2+ years here since. The margin of victory has gone from 12.3pph to 3pph. The 12th man os no longer a factor, but bettors fear to play against Seattle here, the numbers suggest otherwise. Make the play on Baltimore.

  Top Side Play · [276] Green Bay Packers
    Mon Oct 14th, 2019 8:15pm EDT   Win/Loss Undecided

The Cleveland Browns were perceived as a team ready to break out in 2019. They have a young promising and talented QB in Baker Mayfield, and a pair of WR among the best in the league in OBJ and Landry, and a defense considered on the rise. Those expectations have really fallen short as the Browns are facing teams that are coming after Mayfield forcing him into way too many mistakes. Mayfield is suffering from a severe loss of confidence as he has just 4 TDs and 8 UNRs on the season and a QB rating of a woeful 68.5. The Browns are 2-3 with the 3 losses by a combined 65 points, and are finding themselves out of too many games. Moreover, the offense has scored 13 or fewer points in 3 of 5 contests. The Achilles heel of the defense is stopping the run as teams are just playing power football against them as the Browns run stop unit has allowed 448 yards on the ground over the last 2 games. needing to put another player in the nox vs Seattle QB Russell Wilson is trouble, as Wilson is having an MVP season thus far completing 73% of his passes at 9 yards per attempt, and 12 TDs to 0 INTs. Pete Carroll loved yo pound the rock, and that will set yp play action and success against a Browns struggling defense. make the play on Seattle.

Expert Analysis: The Jacksonville Jaguars thought that Nick Goles would stabilize the QB situation, but he was injured early on. That presented an opportunity for Gardner Minshew and he sure has taken advantage of that. Minshew has a 105.6 QB rating to fo along with 9 TDs and just 1 INT. The Jacksonville offense is a lot better than the points they have scored. They are a full yard better per play than the average of the defenses they have gone against. Their 2-3 record sets up well in public opinion vs the 4-1 Saints. The defense has struggled but the return of elite CB Jogn Ramsey comes just in time to blanket Michael Thomas. The Saints have not allowed a 100-yard rusher in 31 straight games, but Minshew`s stellar play at QB has advanced the rushing game over the last 2 weeks and Leonard Fournette may end that streak. Jacksonville`s 3 losses saw them lose the turnover battle 0-6, and that has more to do with bad luck, than being a bad team. Teddy Bridgewater is off a big game, but his overall numbers do not impress me when you dig down into his reality. He will face a lot of pressure in this game. The public loves the Saints here, and that enhances the fact that they are in for a disappointment. Make the play on Jacksonville.

The Thursday Night Football game between the NY Giants and NE Patriots is a complete mismatch. The game will be  played in rainy and windy conditions. The New England offense will not be hampered, as Tom Brady is a great bad-weather QB, and seldom does he throw downfield anymore. The Giants offense will be missing Barkley, Sheppard, and Engram. Those 3 players have accounted for 65% of the Giants offense thus far. The Pats have 11 INTs on the season and they will be stacking the box and force Daniel Jones into the air, as the Pats have yet to allow a passing TD this season. Moreover, the Giants are going t have to throw the ball falling behind, and the conditions are not favorable for Jones to do so, especially missing so many offensive weapons. Coach Belichick thrives as the season moves forward as his teams are 140-85 ATS after the first month of the season, including 52-25 ATS in October games. Thursday home favorites of -11 or more points are 12-1-1 ATS providing their opponent is not winless or unbeaten. The Pat's and Belichick destroy rookie or 2nd-year QBs as they have won 18 straight against them. Look for the Pats to cruise to another blowout win. Pats also are 13-2 ATS from -15 to -19. Make the play on New England.

The Cleveland Browns and the San Francisco 49ers are a pair of teams on the rise. This will be a good test for each team. I'm not as impressed with Baker Mayfield as most as he is wildly inconsistent and overall his numbers would rank him 28th in the league as a QB. San Francisco behind the play-action strong offense of Coach Shannahan and QB Jimmy Garappolo has been strong. Garappolo has the 2nd most play-action pass attempts in the league where he completes 85.7% of his passes at 15.4 yards per attempt. The Niners use olay action on 36% of all dropbacks at 9.9 yards per pass. There are many favorables in this game for the Niners. A MNF favorite off a win and 14 fays rest is 12-0-1 ATS.

Also MNF home teams greater than .800 vs a team .500 or better with a line from -2.5 to -9 and a total greater than 37 are 33-5-3 ATS

The Niners have also been king of MNF:

That is 29-4 ATS from week 3 through week 16.

Make the play on San Francisco.

Expert Analysis: The Green Bay Packers and the Dallas Cowboys each lost for the 1st time last week. That should man both these teams come in hungry for a win. While not many want to suggest that Aaron Rodgers is in decline, the numbers say so. Rodgers is just 13-13-1 SU in his last 27 starts, many still see him as an ultra-elite QB. The numbers over the last 3 years suggest he has become ordinary. That has led to Green Bay compiling an 0-8 SU record on the road vs a team .444 or better. 91-7 ATS with the average being a 10 point loss). he has been shaky on the road where he is 40-44 SU in his career (much worse lately). His dome record is 12-14, and trailing with 4 minutes or less left in the game he has 9 TDs and 10 INTs. The Packers are going to be at a huge disadvantage when Dallas runs. The Pack has allowed 523 yards on the ground on 98 carries the last 3 weeks, and Dallas runs the ball well, especially against a team that can`t stop it. Dallas os 10-0 SU in their last 10 home games if they run the ball 24 times. (7-1-2 ATS). The Packers have no ground game at all and have not had a run over 15 yards this season. The Packer offense is hurting, as Brian Bulaga is dealing with an injured shoulder, and may not play and Devante Adams, the only real receiving threat Green Bay possesses, may be out with a toe injury. Dallas has held 3 of 4 teams to less than 300 yards. Dallas is 10-1 SU at home since the start of last season, while the Pack is 2-9 SU on the road in its last 11, with one of the wins in overtime vs the hapless Jets. Make the play on Dallas.

Expert Analysis: The Chicago Bears and the Oakland Raiders will meet in London. They will do so without QB Mitchell Trubisky who has been declared out with a shoulder injury. Chase Daniel will get the call, and he may actually be an upgrade as Trybisky has struggled. The Bears don`t score much, but they don`t have to as their defense is rock solid allowing 11.3ppg and none of their first 4 opponents have scored more than 15. Oakland last played at home on September 15 and won`t play home again until November 3. So after 2 straight weeks playing in the Central and Eastern time-zones, they will play in England. This is a tough scheduling spot for the Raiders. The Bears have allowed just 61.5 rushing yards a game on the season. Khalil Mack may have a big say on defense this week vs his former team. Think Chicago will pull oit a comfortable 10 point win here. Make the play on Chicago.

It does not seem long ago when the Atlanta Falcons were up 28-3 vs New England in the Super Bowl and lost. It seems the team has never recovered from that. their season has started 1-3 and it is on the line in Houston on Sunday. They know 1-4 would pretty much end any chances of recovering. The good news is all is not as bad as it seems. Atlanta is above average from the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Turnovers have played a role, while Houston has forced a turnover in 17 straight games, and has already forced 8 fumbles this season. Turnovers are mostly random, and it actually better looking at high turnover teams in the NFL, as they are usually better than they look. Houston is not issue free. They are not defending well, and Watson is under siege almost every snap. The Texans allowed 62 sacks a year ago and 18 already this season. Houston has played 4 games and the total margin in all 4 games totals 16. Every game is close, so 5 points with a desperate team trying to save their season is a good take. There is one sports betting adage that says, "The team in need, is the team indeed." It truly applies here. Make the play on Atlanta.

The New Orleans Saints took a huge hit when Drew Brees went down with a hand injury. Teddy Bridgewater has come in to replace him and has been adequate thus far, but he is going to be under seige by a Dallas pass rush that is very capable of getting consistent pressure. Bridgewater has a pedestrian vareer QB rating of 86.3 and has just 31 TDs to 23 INTs. The Saints maybe 2-1 on the season but have been outscored by their opponents. Dallas has an elite offense, with great balance. the Saints defense has allowed at least 27 points in each of their 3 games thus far and is allowing 5.1 yards per carry on the ground vs teams that average just 4.3. The secondary has been torched for 8.4 yards per attempt by teams that average just 7.4. the Saints defense has been highly suspect thus far. Dallas is generating nearly 500 yards of offense per game and will have things their way vs a poor Saints defense. The Saints have been dominant at home over the years, but have dropped their last 5 here ATS. make the play on Dallas.

The Seattle Seahawks were bearen badly last week at home, although the final score liiked respectable. It was their first September home loss in the Pete Carroll era. Arizona has decided that the #1 overall pick in the draft Kyler Murray was going to be their guy. Murray has at times looked very good but at other times very frustrated. The Cardinal offense has become very pass-heavy as Murray is throwing the ball 46 times a contest. The offense has allowed Murray to be sacked 16 times in 3 games, and if that continues, he is going to have a hard time making it through the season. That isn't the only problem. The Cards are 30th in yards allowed on defense and are allowing nearly 30ppg. Seattle QB Russell Wilson is 4-0 in Arizona with a QB rating of 105. Murray may someday be an elite QB, but he has a 79 QB rating right now and has for the most part struggled and the Arizona passing attack is way below average generating 5.3 yards per attempt to opponents surrendering 6.4. The Cards are being out-gained by 115 yards per game. The Seahawks are 55-32-2 ATS since 2005 after a loss (21-9-1 ATS off a home loss). Seattle really has stepped up after a loss, and this Arizona team is going to struggle all season. Make the play on Seattle.

This game fits a situation that is based on a team in week 4 that is turnover free in their first 3 games:

 p:TO=0 and pp:TO=0 and ppp:TO=0 and op:TO + opp:TO + oppp:TO>2

SU:79-31-0 (6.42, 71.8%)Teaser Records

ATS:74-32-4 (3.94, 69.8%)

It also expands out to this:

 p:TO=0 and pp:TO=0 and ppp:TO=0 and op:TO + opp:TO + oppp:TO>2 and line-9.5 and WP44 and total>34 and season>1997 and o:WP

The LA Rams had a great season a year ago making it all the way to the Super Bowl. Unlike many previous Super Bowl losers, the next season usually starts off poorly but the Rams are 2-0 and built for the long haul. The offense was hurt last year as Todd Gurley was injured, and Cooper Kupp suffered a season-ending injury. Gurley and Brown form a great running back tandem and Kupp os doing his thing again leading the Rams receivers in catches and yards. Cleveland will come into this game at 1-1, and the win was on Monday Night vs a Jet's team down to a 3rd string QB. Cleveland took possession from their own 43 or better 5 times in the game and had an 89 yard TD pass, and still managed just 1 other TD the entire game. The offense managed just 13 points vs Tennessee while allowing 43. Things have not looked as good for Cleveland to this point vs expectations. This team has seldom gotten prime time exposure because they have been too bad. They have not been at home in a Sunday Night Football game since 2008, and just 3 times in their history and they have never won one. They have made 3 home appearances on Monday Night and last won on 2008. This team could be a bit nervous under the spotlight. Cleveland has much more talent than they have had over several years, but they have not learned how to win yet, and the Rams are a formidable opponent, that seems to be playing with a chip on their shoulder. make the play on LA.

This will be the first real test for either team. The Chiefs and Ravens both come in at 2-0, and the winner here is going to have the look of a Super Bowl team. I see a difference in this Kansas City team vs last season. Before I get into that let me be clear. This is a very explosive offense, with an elite QB. There are a few things to consider here. The Chiefs played 4 different teams that got a second look at them. All 4 of them combined to hold Kansas City to an average of -5.5ppg less than the 1st meeting, and none of the teams allowed Kansas City more points than their season average when they met a second time. The Chiefs are down 2 very heavy contributors from last year in Kareem Hunt and Tyreke Hill. Hunt was the leading rusher (181-824 7 TDs). Hill 2-151 and 1 TD. Those 8 TDs represent half od all the Chief's rushing TDs on the season.  Hill was the top receiver at 87-1,478 and 12 TDs, while Hunt caught 26 for 378 and 7 TDs. That is 38% of all passing TDs. That is also 27 total TDs out of 66 or 41%. That hasn't shown up yet against poor competition, or has it? Here is a mindblowing stat. The Chiefs scored points in 58 or 64 regular season quarters. just 6 times they got blanked in a quarter. Through 2 games and 8 quarters vs marginal competition this year they have been blanked 3 times. The defense remains below average and right now Lamar Jackson has been every bit as good as Mahomes with 7 TDs and 0 INTs on the season and adding 126 rushing yards on 19 carries. Baltimore is now 8-1 in his 9 starts, and his passing has gone to the top of the elevator over last year. The Ravens have a lethal running game but now have a lethal passing attack. Road dogs that average 160+ yards a game on the ground are 57.1% ATS and when the line is less than +7 they cover 63.4% of the time:

Make the play on Baltimore.

The Denver Broncos showed very little in an opening week loss to Oakland 24-16. They now host a Chicago Bear team that did very little against a much improved Green Bay defense. Now the venues change, as Denver is at home in an early-season game (more on that in a minute), while Chicago takes to the road for the first time this season. The Broncos have the biggest home-field advantage of any team in the BFL due to the altitude. That is especially the case early in the season (week's 1 and 2 in particular). Most NFL starters play very little during the NFLX, and some don't play at all. It takes a couple of weeks to get back in full game shape. When you combine that with playing at a mile high altitude, it has been a game-changer over many years. Since 1989 the Broncos at home in week's 1 and 2 are 33-3 SU and 22-11-3 ATS. (16-0 SU in week 2). Overall they are 23-13-3 ATS as a home dog in all games, 17-5-2 ATS as a home dog of 3 or less winning 17 outright! When the game is not a division game (those teams come here every year), the Broncos are 15-4-1 ATS in week's 1 and 2, and 19-1 SU. They have never not covered as a home dog in week 1 or 2. Make the play on Denver.

The Pittsburgh Steelers got their clock cleaned in their opener vs New England. They were never in the game and lost 33-3. So have the Steelers finally declined, and with Bell and Brown no longer part of the offense and an aging Big Ben with pieces missing spell doom? I don`t think that has been answered yet, and at least for this week, all indications ate this is a great spot. Seattle won last week by a single point. If you looked at the boxscore they should have lost by 20. They were out-played in every facet at home by a team projected to be going nowhere. Seattle has a long history of struggling on the road in the early part of the season as they are 4-22-1 ATS playing on the road in week`s 1-4 (1-16-1 ATS week`s 1-3). The Steelers aren`t very used to getting their tail whipped, and losing by 20 points, but in Roethlisvergers 15 years they are now 8-1 after a 20 point loss. On a side note, the Seahawks have not scored a point in Pittsburgh in 20 years! ( a pair of shutouts). Tomlin has been here 12 years and has started 0-2 just 1 time. This has been Ben`s sweet spot playing in a game where the total is 43.5 to 50.5 where he is 32-22 ATS. Make the play on Pittsburgh.

It looks like the Miami Dolphins are taking the route of the Cleveland Browns, willing to take a few years hit, and stockpile draft pick, and find a QB at the top of the draft. They have bankrupted the team of talent, and the last move sending Tunsil and Stills to Houston for draft picks confirms the agenda. The move to bring in Brian Flores as head coach os a babysitting job, and with Chad O'Shea taking over the play-calling as OC just goes one step further as he has never previously called plays. Miami has no difference makers on offense and defense and it will be ugly. They have 4 number 1 and 4 number 2 draft picks over the next 2 years. John Harbaugh was certainly on the hot seat last year. Sitting at 4-5 and on a 3 game losing streak, and losing Joe Flacco to injury seemed fatal. then in comes Lamar Jackson who in just 7 games set an NFL QB record for carries with 147. The offense pounded the ball relentlessly, dominated the clock and the Ravens went 6-1 down the stretch and won the AFC North. The defense, as usual, was top-notch, #1 in the NFL. They have added 2 tight ends in the draft, and have some receivers that should balance the offense. The defense took some hits, but still will be strong. Over the last 3 years, they have allowed an average of 19ppg. Miami will send QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (better known as Ryan Mcpick-6), and his age at 37 and his INT rate from a year ago of 5% should rise with no weapons. This should be a double-digit win for the Ravens. Make the play on Baltimore. 

 This is a big season for Marcus Mariota. This will be his 5th year and will be looking for a big contract. he spent the better part of last season, as he has for much of his career battling injuries. He will start the season healthy along with 2 keys to this game where the Titans have great matchups. TE Delanie Walker missed a lot of last season, and RB Derrick Henry seemed to break through late last season. Henry just made it to the 1000 yard mark and most of that cane in his last 4 games where he posted 585 of them. The Titans have to do a better job in the first half. They trailed at the half 10 times and were tied at the half twice. They out-scored opponents 15 times in the second half! Consistency was compromised due to injuries. While they lost games to Buffalo and Miami, they beat Houston and Philadelphia and blew out New England by 24 and Dallas by 14. It shows what this team is capable of when healthy. Cleveland is rising and expected to be a playoff team. They will be exploited after losing OG Kevin Zeiter who allowed fewer offensive pressures than any other player a year ago. Baker Mayfield lokes to throw deep, but the Titan`s are strong in defending that. The Titans after 4 years of winning a total of 18 games have now won 27 in the last 3 years, and this may be their best shot of getting over the top. A healthy Mariota, and Delanie Walker, along with an emerging Derrick Henry, against a Brown`s front seven that was the league`s worst at stopping the run, and favorable defensive matchups vs Cleveland, makes this game very close. Make the play on Tennessee.

The 2019 NFL season will lift the curtain in Chicago, as the Green Bay Packers take on the Bears. The packers are off consecutive losing campaigns, which led to the firing of Mike McCarthy, entering Matt LaFleur. QB Aaron Rodgers became critical of McCarthy's play-calling, and the Packer offense should be better. There is one bigger reason why. Aaron Rodgers revealed that in the first half of game 1 last year vs the Bear's he suffered a tibial plateau fracture, as well as a sprained MCL. Ridgers was stripped of being his true effective self and was dropped 49 times. he enters 2019 with a new dynamic playbook, and healthy. the Green Bay defense has been upgraded substantially with the additions of a pair of OLB in Za'Darius Smith and Preston Smith, as well as safety Adrian Amos. The Packers also added Rashon Gary a pass rusher on the end, and safety Darnell Savage, bith coming in the first round of the draft. The Bears won 12 games a year ago, but the schedule was extremely soft. Chicago won 8 games vs teams that won 6 games or less, as well as losing 2 to teams that won 6 games or less and beat just 2 teams with 9+ wins. QB Mitch Trubisky was erratic, and often inconsistent. The Bears defense is strong, but they are going to get the first look of Rodgers running a new offense and could be caught off guard. 

here is another tidbit that applies to week 1 of the NFL:

A team that is a road dog of less than 7 and win 6 or fewer games a year ago are:

49-19-6 covering 72.1% of all bets.

The time has come for the big game, as the New England Patriots once again has made it to the big game, and ironically will face the LA Rams where the Belichick/Brady duo made their first Super Bowl appearance also against the Rams. I guess this completes the circle. Ut certainly looks like New England is the square side of this game, as bets are poinding the Pats at a record pace as of this writing. I often shun going against a sizable public favorite as it is typically the wrong side. The Super Bowl, however, is on an island in that regard, just because so many people get engaged. The public opinion can mostly be ignored.  looking back at the last 15 Super Bowls, the public has been 3-2 ATS when 60% or more are on one side, and 6-2 ATS when 56% or more backs a given side.  

Bill Belichick is a very tough coach to play against because he does things in such a way, all the sets you see on film from the season, have become something designed to trick the defense when they do something different out of that set. Brady us like an extension of Belichick under center. He sees how many defenders are in the box, and calls a run or pass according to what the defense dictates. When he plays a team that has not played him at any point in the season he is 16-1 SU, the only loss last year to Philadelphia. 

Belichick also has a strong record vs the NFC West where he is 20-6 SU/ATS and an amazing 12-0 ATS if not a favorite of more than 3. New England was 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS vs playoff teams this year, LA 5-3/3-5. 

If the Rams can't get to Brady, and their best chance will be Aaron Donald, they are not going to win. The problem is Donald had 20.5 sacks this year, but 16.5 of them came in a 9 game stretch. He had just 4 before and after, and 3 came vs Arizona, and one vs SF. He had 0 vs New Orleans twice, KC, Chicago, and Philadelphia. He has been double-teamed often and a non-factor. Brady has been sacked 0 times in 90 playoff dropbacks, and in 290 dropbacks in his last 8 games, he has been sacked just 5 times. Brady was not sacked in 6 games this season, more than any other season in his career. The pats are 25-4 ATS when he is not sacked, and 31-7-1 ATS (20-2-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -7.5) when he is sacked less than 2 times. That has some significance because oddsmakers have put a prop line out at 1.5 got Brady sacks. 

The Rams defense allowed over 30ppg in the 10 games they played vs winning teams and 15.8ppg vs everyone else. I don't think they are equipped to stop this NE offense, nor do I think they can win a shootout if it turns into that. I'm making the play on New England.

PROPS:

Jullian Edelman  MVP   +2600    

I'm well aware that 54.7% of all Super Bowl MVP's have been a quarterback (29). There is no betting value on selecting a QB in this prop. The next level is RB or WR each winning 6 times (11.3%). While I don't expect to win this prop wager, it has the best available odds of any other, so it does have the highest betting value. 

Edelman has a chance to pop a big play in many different ways. First, he will be targeted plenty. (131 targets in 14 games), The Belichick strategy has involved Welker (the previous Edelman) extensively more in the Super Bowl. Edelman was not available the last year but was targeted 13 times in 2016-17, and 12 times in 2014-15. (196 total receiving yards). Welker was targeted 8 times in 2011-12, and 14 times in 2007-08. he will certainly have opportunities here. Remember he was suspended for the first 4 games this year and was targeted 62 times over his last 6 games. (23 times in 2 playoff games 247 yards). 

He also returns punts which gives him another way to impact the game, and he ran the ball 10 times this season for 11.4 yards a carry, another way he has a chance to impact the game. Edelman was also a QB in college, and threw 2 passes this season for 43 yards and remains a possibility to put one in the air in this game, yet another chance to impact the game. I just think he has more potential ways to impact the game than any other non-QB. 

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PENALTIES ACCEPTED   UNDER   12.5   -110

Both of these teams are pretty disciplined when it comes to giving up yardage by penalty. They each ranked in the top 10 this season in fewest penalties committed. The Patriots under Belichick have always been pretty good at not being penalized very much. The last 5 Super Bowls played by New England has seen them penalized 5 times or less un all 5, and as a team has averaged 4 penalties a game over those last 5. 

Looking at the last 31 Super Bowls, the refs tend to "let the teams play" a bit more than the regular season. We saw some glaring examples of that in the playoffs this year. Over the last 31 Super Bowls, there has been just 9 of the 31 that saw 13 or more accepted penalties occurring, which is just 29% of the time. That means 71% of the time the game did not get to this number.

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JULIAN EDELMAN    OVER   80.5  -110 RECEIVING YARDS:

There is no doubt Edelman will be a significant factor in the Patriots game plan as well as the Rams defensive game plan. This isn't Brady's and Belichick's first rodeo. Edelman and Welker have had the same role in many Patriot Super Bowls, with defenses trying to stop them, and in short, they haven't.  Four of the last 5 involved one of the two and they were targeted 47 times. Edelman has topped this number in his 2 Super Bowl appearances, both his playoff games this year, 7 of his last 11 regular season games this year, and has averaged 99.2 receiving yards per game in 12 playoff or Super Bowl appearances. 

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DEFENSIVE OR SPECIAL TEAMS SCORE:  YES   +160:

This may be the largest value of any prop on the list this season. The last 31 Super Bowls has seen a defensive or special teams score occur in 19 of them or 61.3% of all games. Getting plus odds on something that has been 61.3% is an outstanding value.

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TOTAL MADE FG's FOR THE GAME   UNDER   3.5   -110:

Looking over the lat 31 Super Bowls played there have been just 10 of them that saw a game with 4+ FG's made. That means 67.7% of the time this simply has not occurred.

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LONGEST MADE FG     UNDER  47.5  yards  -115:

The last Super Bowl that saw a made FG of 48 yards or longer was Super Bowl 38! The fact is there have been some big legs in this game, but just 4 times in the last 31 years has a FG been made in this game from 48 yards out or longer. 

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WHICH TEAM WILL GET THE MOST FIRST DOWNS -  NEW ENGLAND   -110

Bill Belichick has been utilizing the run and a short passing game to play in the post-season for a number of years now. While the Rams had more first downs this year than NE 401-365, the NE offense in the post-season simply translates to generate more first downs. The 2 playoff games saw NE win that battle 30-22, and 36-16. The last 21 NE playoff games counting Super Bowls they have won the first down battle 16 of 21 times, and have averaged over 30 first downs in their last 3 Super Bowls, while also winning the battle of moving the chains in all 3.

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TOM BRADY COMPLETIONS  OVER  25.5   -140:

The Belichick offense changes in the playoffs. It is an offense of running and short passes. The 8 Super Bowls with him and Brady has seen the longest completed pass be 28 yards or less. The ball is in the air often for short chain moving drives. Case in point, in the regular season this year Brady never threw 30 completions in a game, and in the 2 playoff games 30, 34. Further proof can be found in his last 4 playoff seasons. Brady played 11 playoff games and has averaged over 30 completions per game each year. The ball is likely to be in the air a lot.

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TOM BRADY SACKS   UNDER  1.5   +150

This will look dangerous to most bettors with Aaron Donald lining up on the other side. Donald had 20.5 sacks this year. Looking back at Donald's season, however, he had 16.5 of those sacks in a 9 game stretch, so before and after that, he had 4. Those 4 came vs weak teams in Arizona (3), and SF (1). His 4 games down the stretch vs Chicago, Philadelphia, Dallas, and New Orleans saw him get 0, and he has not recorded a sack in the playoffs. 

Tom Brady in his last 8 games which includes 290 dropbacks has been sacked a grand total of 5 times, and 0 times in 90 playoff dropbacks. He has been sacked 2 times in 1 of the 8 games. 

The weather may turn out to be the story as New England heads to frigid Kansas City for the AFC Conference Championship. Game time temperatures are expected to be around 5 degrees and falling. Let me get one thing out of the way. Tom Brady has been lethal in cold weather, 24-4 SU for his career with a temperature below freezing, including 12-1 SU in the playoffs. The problem is 12 of those 13 were at home. New England has not won a road playoff game since 2007! (0-3). His home playoff numbers show 46 TDs/18 INT's 29.2ppg. bit the road just 8 TDs/8 INTs and 24.3ppg. Bog difference! The Chefs fit a huge playoff situation as well. In a playoff game played on a team that averages better than 2.95 sacks a game and throws for more yards per pass attempt than their opponent to a total of higher than 39 and not a favorite of -7 or more. These teams are 24-2 ATS. Also, a playoff team that lost this season to this opponent by exactly 3 points is 17-3 ATS in the playoffs. Make the play on KC.

The New Orleans Saints destroyed the Eagles 48-7 in their meeting this season. The Eagles did not have a drive of more than 6 plays in the entire game, and the tone was set early as their first 3 drives resulted in 7 plays, 2 three and outs and an INT. New Orleans was up 17-0 before the Eagles ran their 8th play. A lot has changed since then. The Eagles have gone 6-1, and have now played 24 straight games losing just once by more than 7 points. New Orleans averaged 6.5 yards a play through week 12, and 37.2ppg. The offense has gone south since as they are averaging just 5.3 yards a play since and 19ppg. That covers their last 5 games. They become the first NFL team in history to average over 30ppg but less than 20ppg in their last 5. Looking at that history shows a team averaging over 30ppg but scored 146 or less points in their last 5 (declining offense) are 3-8 ATS in the playoffs. A team with same season revenge is 65-46-5 ATS un the playoffs including 32-13-1 ATS if they allowed 31 or more points in that loss. (26-8-1 ATS if not favored by -2 or more). Make the play on Philadelphia.

Regardless of the talent level, injuries, or anything else, Bill Belichick just keeps winning. His team is 28-9-1 ATS as a home favorite of -7 or less since the start of 2009. They often times look vulnerable but are always prepared. he is also 31-11 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in 3 straight games. The Chargers are playing their third straight road game, as well as their 2nd straight crossing the country 3 time zones away. A team playing 3 straight road games winning the first 2, the last as a dog are 2-12 ATS, if they are better than .670, including 0-8 ATS if they are a +4 point dog or more losing on average 34-10 and failing to cover by 17ppg. Make the play on New England.

I'm going to keep this short and simple. The Kansas City Chiefs scored 26 or more points in every game this season. Unless somehow that is suddenly going to change then consider this. All playoff teams playing as a home favorite that scores 26 or more points are 52-19-2 ATS. Make the play on Kansas City.

The Philadelphia Eagles needed a win and a loss by Minnesota to have a shot at repeating their Super Bowl win from a year ago. They got it done with a whitewash of Washington 28-0. QB Nick Foles will be under center again, just like a year ago, but he doesn't have the same numbers as he enters with 7 TDs and 4 INT's, but not far off. He is battling injuries and he may not be as effective. bears QB Mitchell Trubisky made a huge leap from a year ago and has become a quality QB. The Bears offense has added 10ppg from a year ago, and their defense has become elite. The Bears finished 7-1 at home losing only to New England and their average margin in the 7 wins was 13.1ppg. They beat Seattle and The Rams here. They held the elite offense of the Rams to 6 points. The Eagle defense on the road this year allowed 400+ yards a game and 23.7ppg. The Bears defense closed the season allowing a total of 42 points in their last 4 games. A team that allowed less than 47 points in their final 4 games and playing in the wild-card round is 7-2 SU/7-2 ATS. They are also 6-0 ATS if they did not allow more than 17 points in any of their last 4. Finally, teams in the wild-card round that average greater than 2.95 sacks a game, and are less than a -7 point favorite is 33-12 ATS. I also have a statistical matchup situation that has been 98-65-5 ATS, and when you combine it with the sack situation from above it has been 23-1-1 ATS. Make the play on Chicago. 

The San Diego Chargers enter their wild-card showdown vs Baltimore with 12 wins. They are being backed by the public bigger that any of the 4 wild card games. Baltimore was transformed offensively when Lamar Jackson took over at QB, and the Ravens running game exploded averaging 230 rushing yards a game. That is perhaps the most significant stat of all heading into this game. A team in the wild-card game that out-rushes their opponent is 47-13 ATS. While a 12 win team appears to be in a good spot as a road dog in the wild card round, they are 0-2 SU/ATS in this role, and a wild card team with a worse record as a wild card home favorite has cashed 63.6% of the time. make the play on Baltimore.

The Dallas Cowboys and the Seattle Seahawks have each played well down the stretch. Seattle has won the last 3 meetings have won 8 playoff games behind Wilson, while Dallas has won 2 playoff games since 1996. Seattle dominated the early season meeting 24-13, and Prescott had less than 60 yards passing entering the 4th quarter. The QB play is important, and it comes down to who do you trust more? Seattle sacked Prescott 5 times in that meeting this season. Seattle has run the ball for 882 yards at 4.8 yards a carry in its last 5 games while the Dallas running game has managed 131 yards on 46 carries in their last 2 at 2.8 yards a tote. Many will say Dallas has Amari Cooper now, well Seattle has Doug Baldwin who didn't play in the first meeting either. Make the play on Seattle.

These teams both got off to slow starts as Watson and Luck were both coming off season-ending injuries from the prior season. Once they got going and up to speed, each team took off. Luck has had a banner year and has some crazy stats. he has completed a 20+ yard pass to 12 different receivers and completed a TD pass to 13 different receivers. The difference however in this game is Houston relies heavily on Clowney and Watt to get pressure and be game changers, and Luck has been sacked a league-low 18 times all season, an NFL best. Houston has seen Watson go down 62 times on the season, a league high. Indianapolis sacked him 12 times in the 2 games this season, and I believe that will be the difference maker here. Houston has been out-gained in 4 of their last 5 games. The team that controls the line of scrimmage generally wins the game, and Indy has done that consistently going 9-1 down the stretch. Make the play on Indianapolis.

I have a week 17 situation that plays on the team with a lower winning percentage if the line is from +5 to -6 and the team with the lower winning percentage has more than 4 wins. This is 102-39-2 ATS. The play is on Minnesota.

I have a week 17 situation that plays on the team with a lower winning percentage if the line is from +5 to -6 and the team with the lower winning percentage has more than 4 wins. This is 102-39-2 ATS. The play is on the NY Giants.

I have a week 17 situation that plays on the team with a lower winning percentage if the line is from +5 to -6 and the team with the lower winning percentage has more than 4 wins. This is 102-39-2 ATS. The play is on Tampa Bay.

I have a week 17 situation that plays on the team with a lower winning percentage if the line is from +5 to -6 and the team with the lower winning percentage has more than 4 wins. This is 102-39-2 ATS. The play is on Buffalo.

The contrarian NFL always holds some surprises. My biggest and nest situation applies to this game. It is based on part in a game where one team's scoring margin vs the weak opponent is very extreme. The situation is a ridiculous 52-7 ATS. Make the play on Arizona.

The New England Patriots, Tom Brady, and Bill Belichick, and the city of Miami just don't get along. Miami has been a chamber of horrors for the Pats in the Brady/Belichick era. Last week the Pats suffered a loss on a hook and ladder Miracle in Miami, losing on the last play of the game. Bill Belichick I'm sure is saying, onto Pittsburgh. Thankfully the Pats rarely play poorly after a loss, and since 2002 they are 36-12-1 ATS off a loss. Brady stands at 5-0 vs Pittsburgh vs Mike Tomlin scoring 34.6ppg, at 9.7 yards per attempt, 14 TDs 1 INT, and a passer rating of 127.7. Pittsburgh has gotten a strong season out of Big Ben, but he was forced out of last week's game with a rib injury, although he did come back. he will play this week but could be a hit away from being forced out again. Pittsburgh is leaking oil severely and Ben is 3-8 in his last 11 vs New England with 22 TDs and 11 INTs. he enters this game having thrown 7 TDs and 6 INTs in his last 4 games. Pittsburgh has not beaten a team all season that currently has more than 7 wins, and that was Baltimore. Baltimore also beat Pittsburgh 26-14. RB James Connor may return, but outside of a 4 game stretch where he went for 436 yards, he has generated 436 in all other games, and his replacements Ridley and Samuels have carried 46 times for 119 yards. Pittsburgh has become solely dependent on Big Ben, as they have generated 75 yards or less on the ground in 4 straight games. The final factor is the fact that New England in the regular season following a loss, and not favored by more than 4 points is 23-0 ATS last 23 covering by +14.11ppg! My NFL Game of the Year is on New England.

This is a huge game for both these teams and a win here will go a long way to determining the playoff fate of each team. Minnesota went 12-1 SU in their last 13 games a year ago, and the addition of Kirk Cousins at QB had everyone thinking Super Bowl. Cousins has had a good season but the Minnesota defense has really dropped off. The Vikings held 12 opponents to 20 points or less a year ago with those 12 teams averaging a scant 11.8ppg. This year the defense is allowing 5 points a game more, and just 5 teams have been held to 20 or less. Minnesota has truly suffered over the years vs teams willing to put the ball on the ground, trowing on average less than 30 passes a game. When they have been on the road vs this type of team they are 1-15 ATS. Seattle has dominated in Monday or Thursday games where they are 20-10-2 ATS, while Minnesota on the road in Monday or Thursday games is just 2-8-3 ATS. Wilson has dominated the Minnesota defense and is 4-0 averaging 30ppg with a passer rating of 120.5, 9 TDs to just 1 INT. Make the ply on Seattle.

The LA Rams are 11-1 and put a lot of pressure on a defense as they have scored 29 or more points in 11 of 12 games. They also have a huge game changer on defense in Aaron Donald. Donald leads the NFL with 16.5 sacks and has also made 20 tackles for a loss. He also has 32 QB hits. he has had 10.5 sacks in one-possession games. The Rams are 16-0 in a game in which he records a sack going back to last year. he wears down the opponent as 7.5 of his sacks have come in the 4th quarter, and 21 of his QB hits. All 4 of his forced fumbles have resulted in a Rams TD. he will go against rookie G James Daniels, which is a total mismatch, but Daniels will get a lot of help with double teams. Goff had a breakout season a year ago, but has been even better this season. The Rams got Aqib Talib back for 26 snaps last week, and it is no coincidence the Rams defense was better than it had been in awhile. Bears QB Mitch Trubitsky will likely return from a shoulder injury, but with Donald on the other side he could be a play from being hit again. The Bears have allowed at least 3 sacks in 2 straight games, and after doing so and playing at home they are a woeful 0-12 ATS. With the sack master in the house make the play on LA.