This game fits a very predictive 38-13 ATS situation, which is also on a roll with 7 straight ATS wins. The play is on Detroit.

The Cleveland Browns have been better than expected, and the Jets were blown out by Chicago their last time out. Bettors are starting to take interest in Cleveland, which is about the time they are a good play against. The Jets are `hands off` a lot of bettors, so this sets up as a contrary game. The Browns are 3-1 and coming off a 3 point win vs. conference rival Pittsburgh as a home dog. This sets up Cleveland in a bad 53-98-8 ATS situation. Meanwhile the Jets possessed the ball last week for under 20 minutes. Teams that do so are are 62-37-1 ATS in their next game. Make the play on the NY Jets.

This game fits a very predictive 38-13 ATS situation, which is also on a roll with 7 straight ATS wins. The play is on Houston.

This game fits a long term strong predictive system that is an incredible 90-45-5 ATS. Make the play on Miami.

The NY Giants are a mediocre team that has enough injuries to have become a bad team. Their 3-1 record won't last. Washington was blown out by the Colts last week, and nobody wants to touch this team right now. Teams that won their last game as a home dog and have a better record than their opponent are 57-76 ATS from week 5 on, providing they scored 27 or more points in that win. Make the play on Washington.

The Tampa Bay Bucs are a train wreck as they are 2-11 SU and 0-13 ATS in their last 13 games. That doesn't look good, but I see some hidden value in this one. While the Bucs are 2-11 in their last 13 games and 0-13 ATS in their last 13, over their last 10 games their average margin is just -2.6ppg. Their biggest loss over the 10 games has been 7 points and 6 games have seen losses by 3 or fewer points. Tampa Bay has a strong defense rated 6th. Teams that are 0-3 or worse and playing as a road dog of 4 or more points are 108-71-5 ATS. (15-3-1 ATS lately). Dallas has a horrible defense and it is a big reason they are just 9-13 SU in their last 22 games. I like Tampa in this one.

The Carolina Panthers have not had a lot of prime time games, but they will take on Detroit on Sunday Night Football this week. The Panthers have done a great job avoiding losing streaks as they are now 11-0 ATS when playing off a loss. The 0-3 record is being compared to Detroit's 2-1 record but the Panthers have been a better team from the line of scrimmage on the season. It should be a live crowd as not a lot of prime time games have been played here. The Lions are negative from the line of scrimmage while Carolina is +0.5. I like Carolina in this one.

There are a lot of what I call matrix plays in the NFL early in the season. One in particular is playing on an 0-3 team in week 4 if they are facing a team that has at least 1 win. These teams since the start of the 2005 season are 39-23 ATS including 21-7 ATS in the last 28 times it has been active. Minnesota has the worst defense in the NFL, and it's hard to go near that team, especially with the fact this opponent is 0-3. Make the play on Miami.

There are a lot of what I call matrix plays in the NFL early in the season. One in particular is playing on an 0-3 team in week 4 if they are facing a team that has at least 1 win. These teams since the start of the 2005 season are 39-23 ATS including 21-7 ATS in the last 28 times it has been active. Make the play on Houston.

The NY Giants offense looked horrible last week, and Jameis Winston was a big part of it. Winston has not been very good when getting 3 points or fewer in his career, covering less than 1/3 of those starts.Then you look at Cam Skattebo rushing for just 3.5 yards per carry, and the offense is brutal. Jacoby Brissett has been the opposite of Winston. Winston is careless with the ball and gets picked off a lot. Brissett has one of the best INT rates in the NFL over his career. The Giants are getting no pressure or sacks. Cards in a 61-19 ATS situation. I like Arizona.

There are a lot of what I call matrix plays in the NFL early in the season. One in particular is playing on an 0-3 team in week 4 if they are facing a team that has at least 1 win. These teams since the start of the 2005 season are 39-23 ATS including 21-7 ATS in the last 28 times it has been active. Make the play on Tennessee.

Thursday October 1st, 2026

  Top Side Play · [102] Cleveland Browns   +3
Thu Oct 1st, 2026 8:15pm EDT   Win/Loss Undecided

The Baltimore Ravens and the Dallas Cowboys will meet in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Their is now a sizeable sample size if international games and a pattern has occurred. The better team (favorite), has shown to have a decided advantage. There have been 63 International games with the favorite at 47-16 SU or winning 74.6%. Better than that the favorite has covered at a 39-23-1 ATS rate at 62.7%. Make the play on Baltimore.

The Detroit Lions have not been that great defensively, and the main reason is the loss of 2 safeties, and 3 backups. The Jets are improved behind Geno Smith. His numbers have always been good when he has a decent OL blocking for him. This game fits a situation that is 32-49-3 ATS, and it plays against home favorites in a week 3 game of 1-1 teams. Take the points and play on the NY Jets.

This game is interesting to me. I think as soon as a backup QB is expected to take the field an automatic over adjustment comes into play. Mariota has out-played Daniels, since Daniels came into the league, so regardless what you think the numbers are pretty even, and getting better than a TD in this game is good value. I'm backing that along with a situation in favor of Washington that is 38-13 ATS. Make the play on Washington.

There is obviously a country mile between the ability of these teams, and everyone is locked and loaded on the Chiefs. There is a motivation difference here. Whenever you have a huge road favorite of 10 or more points, that is not hungry coming off a loss expect the unexpected. History shows a 10 point or more road favorite, not off a loss at 50-69-3 ATS. Chiefs have been in a situation similar to this one and are 1-10 ATS. Make the play on Miami.

I couldn't wait to see the line for this game, as the NFL is a highly contrarian league. Here we have Buffalo that through two weeks looks like the best team in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Chargers are 0-2 losing to Arizona, and Las Vegas??? OUCH! This game fits multiple betting situations, and they are all either on the Chargers, or against the Bills. Make the play on the LA Chargers.

The Green Bay Packers have had a lot of trouble with their offensive line, while the Falcons turn to their third QB option in Michael Penix. The Falcons have been out-scored 54-16 in their 0-2 start, but are in a great spot here. A team in game 3 that is averaging fewer than 10ppg are 11-1 ATS since 2013. Looks like a classic overlay. I will play on the Atlanta Falcons.

This game fits a week 2 situation that plays on week 2 teams that are road dogs after losing their opener by 10 or more points. These teams are 55-36 ATS including 23-5 ATS lately. Play on Indianapolis.

Early in the season, without reliable numbers, makes the NFL very difficult to handicap. I have a lot of success looking at long term game situations that continue to excel. One example is in game 2 and both teams enter the contest 0-1, the dog is 68-46-4 ATS.I Make the play on Washington. 

This game fits a week 2 situation that plays on week 2 teams that are road dogs after losing their opener by 10 or more points. These teams are 55-36 ATS including 23-5 ATS lately. Play on Indianapolis. The play is on Miami.

Early in the season, without reliable numbers, makes the NFL very difficult to handicap. I have a lot of success looking at long term game situations that continue to excel. One example is in game 2 and both teams enter the contest 0-1, the dog is 68-46-4 ATS.I will also point out that Carolina is 1-16-1 ATS as a favorite of more than 1 point. Make the play on Atlanta.

Early in the season, without reliable numbers, makes the NFL very difficult to handicap. I have a lot of success looking at long term game situations that continue to excel. One example is in game 2 and both teams enter the contest 0-1, the dog is 68-46-4 ATS. Make the play on Cleveland.

A new era starts tonight in Buffalo, as the Bills will play in High Mark Stadium for the first time. The Lions are down their top safeties for the game, and Josh Allen who picked apart a very good Houston defense, should have his was vs. the Lion's secondary. The Lions had to go to OT to steal a win against New Orleans last week, but that puts them in a troubled spot. A team that played Sunday or Monday the previous week, in an overtime game, and come back on Thursday (short rest), are just 10-33 ATS. I like Buffalo in this one.

This game fits a strong week 1 situation that has gone 60-34-4 ATS since 2009. Make the play on Denver.

This game fits a strong week 1 situation that has gone 60-34-4 ATS since 2009. Make the play on the NY Giants.

This game fits a strong week 1 situation that has gone 60-34-4 ATS since 2009. Make the play on Washington.

This game fits a strong week 1 situation that has gone 60-34-4 ATS since 2009. Make the play on Green Bay.

This game fits a strong week 1 situation that has gone 60-34-4 ATS since 2009. Make the play on Houston.

This game is being played in Australia, and it fits a strong week 1 situation that is 60-34-4 ATS. Make the play on San Francisco.

The San Francisco Forty Niners had a very injury plagued season, and yet here they are playing for the #1 overall seed in the NFC Playoffs. This game fits a situation that is 36-7 ATS, and the play is on San Francisco.

This is a game where both home field and experience is going to have a lot to say with the outcome, and the Bucs certainly own the home field and the experience. This game has an active last game of the regular season situation that is 36-7 ATS. Make the play on Tampa Bay.

I am traveling so no writeups this week

PITTSBURGH   +7

I am traveling so no writeups

LV RAIDERS     +14.5

I am traveling so no writeups

CLEVELAND   +11

I am traveling so no warmups.

CINN   -4

Normally bettors would be teeing up Kansas City her. The Chiefs? Late season? playoff positioning?
Mahomes? Not this year.The morale on this team has to be completely gone. This team always has something to play for, but not this year. This will be Tennessee's best chance to beat the Chiefs. I'm playing on Tennessee.

The Chicago Bears lead the NFC North at 9-s followed by the 8-3-1 Packers, Things are very tight in the NFC, and we will probably see a real good team that doesn't make the playoffs. The Bears have made a living this season. They are currently the #1 seed in the NFC, despite averaging 26 points and allowing 26 points. There has never been a #1 seed that has a scoring margin of 0. The Packers have one of the best defenses in the NFL, and have an offense that does not turn the ball over (just 7 turnovers this season). The Bears have had the ball bounce their way as their opponents have committed 25 turnovers in their last 10 games. That is unsustainable, and when you pair that with a huge situation on Green Bay based on turnovers which is as follows. Play on any team that has not turned the ball over in at least 3 straight games, facing a team that has turned the ball over more than twice in their last 3 games. These turnover free teams are 104-57-3 ATS! Make the play on Green Bay.

The Minnesota Vikings have done a free fall off last year's highly successful team, and the main target is the QB position. JJ McCarthy, Carson Wentz, and last week's Max Brosmar's shit show  have contributed heavily to the 4-8 record. JJ McCarthy will be at QB, but his 5.4 ypa is very poor. McCarthy has 6 TDs 5 INT's and 3 Fumbles. Washington came within 1 point in Denver on Monday Night. They fit a situation that plqys on certain teams off a 1 point loss which is 42-26 ATS. Make the play on Washington.

This has been one of the biggest rivalries in the NFL, and one that usually doesn't disappoint. Since the start of the 1999 season these teams have played 26 games that ended with a 3 or less point margin. Baltimore is listed as a -6 point favorite, which for this series that 6 points is like gold. What makes it even better is I have a situation on Pittsburgh that is 23-1 SU and 23-1 ATS. Make the play on Pittsburgh.

The Buffalo Bills, Indianapolis Colts, and LA Chargers are all 8-4 and currently represent the 3 AFC wild card teams. The Bills are almost a full yard better from the line of scrimmage than the Cincinnati Bengals. Joe Burrow has missed a lot of time this season with injuries. He is completing just 55% of his passes, and his Qb rating is lower than Joe Flacco. Regardless that he is back, he isn't the same QB yet. He also can't play defense. The Bengals are allowing 31ppg. The Bengals are also up against this. Play against a team that won their last game as a dog of 6 or more points, and are a 6 or more point dog again. These teams are 92-141-4 ATS, covering just 39.5% of the time. Make the play on Buffalo.

Not many believed that this New England team would be chasing the #1 seed for the AFC playoffs, but they also have a real chance to put another Super Bowl trophy in the trophy case. The Pats have found themselves a high octane QB in Drake Maye. Maye is completing 71% of his passes at an NFL leading 8.8 yards per attempt. The Giants season has been beset by injuries, and although Jaxon Dart will be back at QB, Winston, and Wilson have numbers equal to or better than Dart so he is not an upgrade. Hard to ignore a betting situation that plays on certain teams off a bye at home which is an amazing 79-28 ATS. Make the play on New England.

The LA Chargers have moved their record on the season to 7-4 on the season and are certainly looking like they will be a playoff team. The numbers are rather pedestrian, as they average and allow 22 points per contest. Vegas has endured another painful season at just 2-9, but if their is any solace the defense has played reasonably well. The losing streak has reached 5 games, and Vegas has covered just 2 games all season. The line is over-reflective of the Raiders record and not close to the stat differentials, and I see value on a dirty dog that no one wants. Make the play on Vegas.

This game comes from a huge situation that plays against a road favorite that has a season scoring margin of 10 points or more and are off a game where they won by 14 or more points. These teams are an ugly 67-108-2 ATS. Make the play on Carolina.

The Philadelphia Eagles turned their game against the Dallas Cowboys from a 21-0 laugher, to a 24-21 loss. You can imagine how fast they want to get back on the field and get redemption. Despite the bad loss they still have a huge lead in the NFC East. Chicago tops the NFC North with an 8-3 record, but this team has many flaws, and luck has been their friend. The Bears despite being 8-3 have a negative scoring margin! They gave 5 wins by a combined 11 points. Their opponents have made 23 turnovers in 9 games or 2.44 per contest. The Bears have just 5 in their last 9 games. The Bears are +18 in the 9 games which won't last. I have a big situation that is 116-64 ATS for this one. Make the play on Philadelphia.

The Baltimore Ravens have turned their season completely around. The Ravens opened at 1-5 and it looked like this team was not making the playoffs. The Ravens have won 5 straight games and at 6-5 they are tied with Pittsburgh for the lead in the AFC North. The difference has been the defense. The Ravens started the season allowing 35.4ppg over their first 5, and over their last 6 they have allowed 14ppg. That is a 21.4ppg drop. All 6 of their wins on the season have been by 7 or more points. They have also won the turnover battle. They were -7 over their first 6 games and +7 over their last 5. The Bengals are 1-8 in their last 9 games, and have a -13.2ppg scoring margin in those games. Make the play on Baltimore.

If the playoffs started today the Detroit Lions would be on the outside looking in. The Lions have not been quite the same team we have seen in recent years. The Giants ruled Jaxon Dart out and Winston in. The market immediately reacted to the news and the line jumped 3 points from Detroit -10 to Detroit -13. The Lions have been very good after a loss. You can argue that Winston is actually a slightly better option at QB than Dart, and this game is a play purely on line value. Make the play on the NY Giants.

The Buffalo Bills have had some tough moments this season, but they are still 7-3 on the season, and a game and a half behind New England for the lead in the AFC East. The Bills currently would be the #1 wildard in the AFC playoffs. Houston is just 5-5 on the season, and would not be in the playoffs going into this week. Thursday favorites have thrived in the NFL. The biggest reason is the favorite or the better team can handle playing on 3 days rest better than the lesser team, as depth becomes a challenge deeper into the season. From week 12 on Thursday favorites of more than 2 points, and are off a win are 68-43-2 ATS and I also have another Thursday Night Favorite situation that is 21-4-1 ATS. C.J. Stroud is much better than Davis Mills, and Stroud is out with a concussion. It makes the already bad offense of the Texans worse. Stroud is not only a better QB, but he is a much bigger run threat than Mills. I like Buffalo in this one.

This game is going to be played in sustained winds, with gusts up to 45 MPH during the entire game. The winds will be blowing diagonally across the field, so no edge at either end of the field. Baltimore has Henry and Jackson, the best running combo that is meant for this kind of weather. Make the play on Baltimore.

The Kansas City Chiefs are just 5-4 on the season, while the Denver Broncos are a home dog to Kansas City, who just hasn't been the same Kansas City offense we have seen in recent years. Denver has a better run defense, pass defense, and total defense than Kansas City, by a good margin. The Broncos defense is allowing just 4.7 yards per play. Denver's two losses have come at Indianapolis by 1 point, and at the 7-3 LA Chargers by 3 points. Denver is 33-21-5 ATS as a home dog since 1989. Denver is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings, and playing at home during that same period they are 4-0 ATS. Make the play on Denver.

Matthew Stafford is having an incredible season, but out of nowhere Seattle QB Sam Darnold has the best numbers in the NFL. Darnold is averaging an ultra elite 9.9 yards per pass attempt on the season. The next best has been Drake Maye of New England at 8.9. Darnold is completing 71% of his passes, with 17 TDs. Seattle fits a huge situation that is 180-111-6 ATS. Make the play on Seattle.

he Atlanta Falcons will host the Carolina Panthers this Sunday. The Falcons are just 3-6 on the season. I would think the Panthers run the ball a lot in this one.Carolina RB Rico Dowdle is likely to play and he has run for 788 yards at 5.3 yards a carry. The Falcons run defense is 29th in the league. The Panthers are a shocking 0-11 SU and ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite, but they are 16-9-1 ATS as a dog of 4 or fewer points. Make the play on Carolina.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are 5-3, and they have been fairly lucky to do so as 4 of their 5 wins have come in 1 possession games. The Chargers are not only 6-3, they are playing good football. This will be the Chargers 9th straight game as a favorite. That kind of says something about this team. The Chargers are averaging 29ppg in their last 4 contests, and have won 3 of the 4. The Steelers big win in Indianapolis last week was provided by 6 turnovers by the Colts, and they still only lost by 7 points. They out-gained Pittsburgh 368-225. Just as a footnote an NFL team that saw their opponent turn the ball over 6 or more times in their last game cover just 45.5% of their next game. Make the play on the LA Chargers.

The LA Rams are 6-2 and have looked spectacular the last 2 weeks. That sets them up in one of the NFL's many contrarian outcomes. A team that scores 31 or more points in their last 2 games, as well as allowing fewer than 13 points in 2 straight games, are ready for the crater as they are 11-37 ATS in their last 48 games in this situation. those numbers go against the Rams. If the game is on the road, the results are 2-17 ATS. Make the play on San Francisco.

The Washington Commanders have dealt with key injuries all season, and now Jayden Daniels is ruled out again with an elbow injury and WR Terry McLaurin is sidelined with a quad injury. The Lions have had more injuries than any other team, but the heart of this team is still healthy. No team has had more success than the Lions when they are coming off a home game, playing on the road. Detroit is 15-1 SU and 16-0 ATS when doing so, covering by 8.3ppg. I like Detroit in this one.

A team that is a dog of from 3.5 to 10 points, that has a scoring margin of -10 or worse, and has scored 17 or fewer points in each of their last 3 games, has gone 115-65-2 ATS, covering 64% of all games. Make the play on the New Orleans Saints.

This is a weather play. The conditions in Chicago Sunday call for some snow,but more importantly high winds. The wind will be blowing at 15-20 mph sustained, as well as gusts into the 30s. The running game advantage in this game belongs to Chicago, and I think the better ground game here is going to be on the field the most, and passes are likely limited to short patterns as throwing long is not going to have a good result. Make the play on Chicago.

The Indianapolis Colts are 7-2 but the numbers have not been as favorable as the record. The Atlanta Falcons on the other hand has numbers that are more favorable than the record. Indianapolis and Atlanta are both tied when it comes to yards for and yards against. Atlanta gains 51 fewer yards per game than Atlanta, but the Falcons allow opponents 51 yards less per game. This is a big number to hang that just doesn't the stats of the game, it fits the team's records. This is a neutral field in Germany, and Indianapolis fits a 27-52 ATS situation. Make the play on Atlanta.

The Denver Broncos will have the unfair advantage of playing on 3 days rest and playing at home, providing their opponent is also on 3 days rest. All Thursday Night NFL games with a home favorite are 105-77-4 ATS. When the line is in the range of -7.5 points or more the home favorite is 38-22-1 ATS. The theory here is a significant line (-7.5 or higher), means a much deeper and better team that can adjust better to the short rest, especially when the worst team in the game is traveling on short rest. Make the play on Denver.

The Jacksonville Jaguars will take to the road to take on the Las Vegas Raiders. Jacksonville started the season getting a lot of luck. Their opponents turned the ball over 14 times in their first 5 games leading to a 4-1 start. Their last 2 games their opponent did not turn the ball over at all, and the Jags are 0-2. Despite their 4-3 record the Jaguars have been collectively outscored by their opponents. These teams are statistically even. The biggest edge is a team that was shutout in their last game, are 120-86-5 ATS. All professional sports players, after being embarrassed play with a bigger edge their next time out. Make the play on Las Vegas.

The Cincinnati Bengals have to be pleased with what they have seen from Joe Flacco. Since becoming the Bengals starting QB Flacco has certainly made a difference with the offense. They averaged just 17ppg before he arrived, and 30ppg since week 6 with Flacco under center. The other big factor is the Bengals turned the ball over 11 times in 5 games without Flacco and none since he took over. When a team plays 3 straight `clean` games (no turnovers they are great bets. These teams are 126-86-6 ATS on the blind (nearly 60% winners). The Bears have serious injury issues in their secondary, and with Higgins, and Chase Flacco has been really connecting. I like Cincinnati.

I don`t think to many people would have predicted the Indianapolis Colts would be 7-1 through 8 games and own the best record in the NFL. They have had 1 bad game, where they turned the ball over 3 times, but in their other 7 games they have turned over the ball just 1 time!! Pittsburgh lost their last game to Green Bay at home, and now have to try and come back at home again to find the win column. This has historically been a death sentence to a team that lost their last game to move to 4-3 on the season. These teams have been 29-63-6 ATS. The Colts are now 21-9 ATS vs. conference opponents. Make the play on Indianapolis.

It is crunch time for the Baltimore Ravens as they head to Miami to take on the Dolphins. The Ravens expect to get Lamar Jackson back for tonight's game. He injured his hamstring during the game with Kansas City, and has missed the last 3 games. The Ravens are 2-5 and a loss could really sting their playoff chances. Baltimore brings in a better defense and better offense. The Ravens averaged 32.8ppg in Jackson's 4 starts, but just 14.3ppg in the 3 games he missed. Miami has an even bigger challenge at 2-6. The Dolphins are in a huge letdown spot. A team that wins as a dog of 6 or more points, and they are a dog of 6 or more points in their next game is 92-140-4 ATS, and Baltimore fits a 20-4 ATS situation based in part playing on home favorites in Thursday games in a non-division contest. Make the play on Baltimore.

It looks like the Kansas City Chiefs are not finished after all. The Chiefs opened the season at 0-2 but have been 4-1 since. The Commanders offense played without their top 3 receivers last week in Dallas and lost by 22. The Commanders are reeling having lost 3 of their last 4 games. They have made 5 turnovers just in their las2 games, while the defense has turned their opponent over just 3 times all season. Kansas City had a rare defensive game last week shutting out the Raiders and holding them to fewer than 7 first downs and under 100 total yards. A team holding their previous opponent to fewer than 7 first downs are 50-23-3 ATS.A team that shut out their previous opponent while allowing them fewer than 100 yards of offense are 16-1-1 ATS. Make the play on Kansas City. 

This is purely a situational play that finds the Cowboys on a 77-34 ATS situation. Make the play on Dallas.

The New England Patriots look like they have found themselves a QB in Drake Maye. Maye is tied with Jared Goff at 116.4 for the highest passer rating in the NFL. The Patriots have won 4 straight games and covered all of them. That tends to make odds makers pad lines. NE was a 6.5 point favorite over Tennessee, but a 7.5 point favorite now over Cleveland. Evidence in padding point spreads is found by looking at how a team that has won and covered 4 straight does in their next game, and they are a woeful 103-122-8 ATS just 45.80%. The Browns have a bye next week, and coaches like to use the game prior to the bye filled with incentives, like an extra day or two off. Cleveland fits a situation based on that which is 28-5-2 ATS!! Make the play on Cleveland.

The NY Giants have been playing with more energy with Cam Skattebo and QB Jaxon Dart. They really had a bad beat last week in Denver as they dominated the game until allowing 33 points to Denver in the second half for the loss. This one is an automatic system play that plays on certain teams with a bye the following week. It has been 64-13-1 ATS. Make the play on Philadelphia.

The NY Jets have not won more than 7 games since 2015. They are certainly not on course to change that this season as the head to Cincinnati to face the Bengals. The Bengals are 3-4, but their offense has been just as bad as the jets as they are generating just 4.9 yards per play, the same as the Jets. The Jets are surprisingly allowing 0.7 yards per play lower than the Bengals, making them a better team overall from the line of scrimmage. The Jets have played 5 of their 7 losses to one score games, so things aren't as bad as they have looked. The Bengals are off a 2 point win in Pittsburgh, and may be facing a letdown here, as they snapped a 4 game losing streak. The 4 game losing streak saw them lose all of them by more than 1 possession. When a team gets to 0-7 or worse they are 69-45-4 ATS, as odds makers tend to pad their lines. Make the play on the NY Jets.

The Minnesota Vikings are just 3-3 and they have self destructed in a lot of places. The Vikings lost JJ McCarthy to an ankle injury and his replacement Carson Wentz has been pretty much his equal. (McCarthy may play tonight) The Vikings issues are defenders are getting to the QB a lot. Already 23 times in 6 games. Justin Jefferson has caught just 1 TD pass, and they need him more involved. The Vikings have just 2 INT's on the season, and have not been able to get pressure. Chargers part of a Thursday Night home favorite situation. NFL Thursday home favorites are 119-92-6 ATS. Make the play on the LA Chargers.

The Dallas Cowboys are under .500 at 2-3-1, but if Dak Prescott continues to play at a high level, and there defense gets healthy and improves the will leap over the .500 mark. One of the biggest recipes for success is coming into a game having committed 0 turnovers over their last 3 games, and facing a team that has at least 3 turnovers in their last 3 games. These teams are 102-56-5 ATS at 64.6% winners, including 34-19-2 ATS in division games. Make the play on Dallas.

The Green Bay Packers have yet to win a game on the road this season (0-1-1), but they certainly make a good argument this week against the Cardinals in Arizona. The Packers bring an impressive resume into this game. They are tied with Denver for allowing the fewest yards per play in the league at 4.7ypp. Jordan Love has thrown 9 TDs to just 2 INT's and he is averaging 8.3ypa on the season, better than any one else on the card. Arizona is just 2-4 on the season and they have had issues on both sides of the ball. The Packers finally got their running game going as they have topped 150 yards in 2 straight games. Big statistical edge here. Make the play on Green Bay.

The NY Giants have become a fun team to watch. They have inserted Jaxon Dart at QB and Cam Skattebo at running back, and their play has elevated their team. The Giants will face a Denver defense that is allowing just 4.7ypp which ties them for the best mark in the NFL with the Green Bay Packers. Couple that with the Giants huge upset over Philadelphia 34-17 as an 8 point dog. While that looks great many bettors will jump on the bandwagon in what is a major letdown spot for them. A team off a dog win as a +6 or more point under dog, and are once again a 6 or more point under dog is 91-140-4 ATS. Make the play on Denver.

This one comes from the one and only predictive model I have built, that leans on several meaningful stats. The main stat is weighted to turnover differentials, with input pertaining heavy on potential turnover margins vs. normal. This true betting system is 54-104-7 ATS (65.8%), and it plays against the Bears. Make the play on New Orleans.

The LA Rams and the Jacksonville Jaguars will do battle in London. One of the first thing I noticed when looking at this game was that the records for both teams is 4-2, the numbers are completely different. The Rams are entirely below the radar. They have been the best team in the NFL from the line of scrimmage. The Rams are averaging 6.3ypp on offense while allowing just 4.9ypp on defense. Jacksonville is averaging 5.4ypp on offense while allowing 5.8 yards per play on defense. The Rams have decided edges both when they have the ball, or their opponent has the ball. This is just a clear cut handicap. Make the play on the LA Rams.

The Green Bay Packers had a bye last week, and will take on the Cincinnati Bengals at Lambeau Field. The Bengals apparently had seen enough out of Jake Browning and have traded for Joe Flacco. Flacco will get the start, but not likely using a full playbook. Perhaps worse than that is the Bengals have the worst offensive line in football. Looks like Gary and Parsons are going to be in the Bengal backfield a lot. A team off their bye week that is a favorite of -3 or more points are 84-44-2 ATS if they scored28 or more points before their bye. The Packers are 8-2 ATS in this spot. I like Green Bay.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have been very lucky through 4 games. They have a 3-1 record, but have been out-gained by all 4 opponents and not by just a little. The Steelers have been out-gained by over 100 yards per game! The reason why they are winning is they have a net turnover differential of +7. Despite being 3-1 they have been out-scored by their 4 opponents 96-94. Winning is unsustainable. The Cleveland Browns have the #2 defense in the league, and are certainly capable of shutting down a mediocre Pittsburgh offense. I think having Dillon Gabriel will ultimately help the Browns poor offense improve. This game fits a situation that has been 137-93-5 ATS (59.6%), and I'm making the call on the Browns.

Seattle will make the long trip to Jacksonville this week to take on the surging Jaguars who enter the game at 4-1. Seattle has the better offense and defense in this game, and are playing as a slim 1.5 point favorite. They are off their biggest win of the season a 31-28 win vs. Kansas City. The Jaguars were out-gained by the Chiefs by over 150 yards, marking the 2nd week in a row they have been out-gained. Seattle has out-gained each of their last 4 opponents, and clearly has the statistical edge here, as well as the betting situations which also highly favor the Seahawks. They are backed in this game by one that is 120-67-5 ATS. Make the play on Seattle.

The Denver Broncos were all over the Bengals Monday Night. They got a career high passing yards from Bo Nix, and J.K. Dobbins ran for over 100 yards. Defensively they were even better as they held the Bengals to 159 total yards and just 3 points. The Broncos had 29 first downs in the game, to the Bengals 9. So where does that leave the Bengals going into week 5 vs. the Detroit Lions? The one key takeaway when the wheels are coming off and you have a very undisciplined team is part of NFL history. There is more to this situation than what I`m letting on, but the core of it is to play against a team that had more penalties than first downs in their last game. If you just played against every team since 1989 that had fewer first downs than penalties you would be 144-105-5 ATS (57.8%). I have a subset of this premise that is 31-2 ATS!! Make the play on Detroit.

This game fits a 316-193-9 ATS situation, and the play is on Washington.

This should be an interesting game as both these teams have strong defenses. I think the team that can run the ball in this game is going to win it, as these teams stack up fairly even. The reason I'm playing it is the 316-193-9 ATS situation that is live here. Make the play on Tampa Bay.

Sunday. Their weak offense hit rock bottom last week as they were shutout by the Houston Texans. There just isn't a lot of flavor on the Titans and no one wants any part of them. This makes for an easy contrarian play because the line is tanked with a few extra points to get you on Tennessee. That shows up in the long history of the NFL. If you look at all teams that were shutout in the regular season in their last game they are 119-86-5 ATS or cover blindly at 58%. I also have another shutout situation on a team off being shutout that is 30-6 ATS. Make the play on Tennessee.

Jaxon Dart made enough difference last week to get the Giants their first win of the season over the Chargers 21-18. He took care of the ball, ran for 52 yards, and was efficient through the air. New Orleans is still looking for that elusive first win as they enter this contest at 0-4. This is a game that includes a huge betting situation that has been 316-193-9 ATS and 62.1% winners
since 1991. Make the play on the NY Giants.

he Cincinnati Bengals are off a horrible loss to Minnesota by the score of 48-10. That suggests that bettors will not give much of a look at Cincinnati, but many will also look hard at Denver.This is one of those NFL contrarian plays, and I have many situations that show this at work. For starters, a team that has just 1 condition, it gave up 42 points or more in their last game are blindly profitable playing on them in their next game at 280-243-12 ATS or 53.5% winners. Those numbers nullify the hypothesis of a fair bet. If you take into account that they also lost that game allowing 42 or more points (Cincinnati 48 last week vs Minnesota). If they lost that game by 30 or more points they are 104-77-10 ATS (57.5%). There is nothing about this game that is more predictive than that. I like Cincinnati.

There is obviously a huge chasm between New Orleans and Buffalo. The Bills are a potential Super Bowl team, and the Saints are a potential team to get the first overall draft pick. I love playing into ugly, as the contrarian winds blow weekly. I especially like ugly games when they are backed by history. Dogs that gave up over 40 points last game, and average fewer than 17ppg are 94-45-4 ATS!! These teams have covered 6 in a row. I like New Orleans.

Realizing the NFL is a contrarian league, I decided to take a look and see if having been shutout in their last game impacts that team`s next game. Well, the results are not surprising. If you just took that 1 condition and nothing else and simply bet on a team that was shutout, in their next game. These teams are 131-108-6 ATS. That is close to 55% winners.I could use this and find better winning situations, but I think the raw 1 variable system is huge. Make the play on Atlanta.

The Cleveland Browns are a good team to bet on right now. They are 1-2 and have played 2 very strong offenses in Green Bay and Baltimore. Baltimore scored 41 points, but it wasn't because the Raven's offense ran all over them. The Ravens gained just 242 total yards against them. The Packers gained just 230 total yards. Cincinnati gained just 130 total yards. Needless to say the Browns defense has been tested twice, and delivered. This season through 3 games the Browns have forced their opponent 3 and out 50% of all times. Detroit has gotten a lot out of their two running backs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. They won't have that in this game. I like Cleveland.

Probably the strangest outcome last week was Carolina shutting out Atlanta 30-0. One thing I noticed about shutting a team out has connections to their next game. If it was a class "A" shutout where the opponent gained less than 100 yards, or a class "B" shutout where the opponent gained 200 yards or more, is where the money is. A team that shutout their last opponent while holding them to fewer than 100 yards or allowed them 300 yards or better. When these teams don't take the field as a better than 10 point favorite they are 22-2-1 ATS. Make the play on Carolina.

This is a big game for both teams. The NFC West looks like the best conference from top to bottom in the early going. No team is worse than 2-1 so far, and with each of these teams off to a 2-1 start, the game has some extra juice. The early data shows that Seattle is a much better offense, and Seattle also has a slightly better defense. This has the look of a contrarian type game. Seattle has a margin of victory of 13.7ppg. Perhaps more telling is Seattle has not been great in the division as they are 1 game over .500 since 2017. Road favorites with a scoring margin of 10 or more points, and won their last game by 14 or more points are a highly negative 64-106-2 ATS. Cards are 8-1 ATS and 8-1 SU as a home dog of 2 points or less. This is a solid contrarian spot, which the NFL is known for. Make the play on Arizona.

This game is strictly a system play. It is top 3 of 100's of systems I have. This one is a crazy 56-7-1 ATS. Make the play on San Francisco.

he Atlanta Falcons will make the trip to Carolina to take on the Carolina Panthers. Carolina has not finished with a winning record since 2017. There are no signs of improvement as the last 2 years they have won 7 games. They have started 0-2 on the season, and as bad as the offense has been, they are missing 2 offensive lineman for this game. Michael Penix has not thrown an interception through two games. A team that starts 2-0 without throwing an interception cover 54% of all games, and that shoots up to 65% when they are playing as a road favorite. A team off a home loss where they gained less than 50 rushing yards, from game 2 through game 4,are 42-82 ATS which plays against Carolina. Make the play on Atlanta.

The Green Bay Packers have started 2-0, and they looked good winning. I think that adds to some of the hype for this team, and throw in Micah Parsons, and they are getting a lot of early attention, and the value is on the other
side. This has always been the case, the Packers win at home, but they have a losing record on the road. The Packers over the last 9 years have finished with a winning ATS mark on the road as a favorite just 1 time, and overall in the same period they are 13-21 ATS. The Packers are also 0-3 ATS trying to cover more than 7. The Browns fit a huge system that is as follows. Play against a dog that allowed 40 or more points last game, if they are averaging fewer than 17ppg. These teams are 93-45-4 ATS. Make the play on Cleveland.

I have to go with my top Monday night situation for this game. The situation is 44-13 ATS and on the Las Vegas Raiders.

The Minnesota Vikings will host the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday night football. This is only week 2 so a lot of the stats, in many cases have a high level of variance, as high as it will be all season. This game fits a revenge situation that has been very powerful over the years and is 81-49-5 ATS on the Falcons. The Falcons are also in a 135-95-5 ATS situation. I like Atlanta in this one.

New England had more success in the air last week than they did on the ground. The offense should have scored a lot more as they generated 276 yards in the air, on 30 completions. Meanwhile Miami got tortured by Indianapolis 33-8. The Miami offense generated just 211 total yards and turned the ball over 3 times. Indy out-gained Miami by nearly 200 yards. They also ran 26 more plays than Miami. This game fits a game two situation that is 47-14 ATS and my play is on New England.

The Minnesota Vikings will take on the Chicago Bears in Chicago to open up the Monday Night Football season. It is difficult to handicap game 1, because the variances are as high as they get as the season moves forward. However this appears to be a good game to bet. I think the Bears will be better this year, and the Vikings worse. Situations are all pointing to the Bears including on playing a week 1 division home dog. Since the start of the 2010 season these dogs have barked loud at 24-8 ATS. Make the play on Chicago.

I am traveling today, and there will be no write ups. The play is on Buffalo

I am traveling today, and there will be no write ups. The play is on Seattle.

I am traveling today, and there will be no write ups. The play is on Houston.