The Tampa Bay Bucs started the season with a lot of new faces. The biggest addition was Tom Brady. Brady and the Bucs offense struggled early, as covid shut down training camps, and practice time in a new system just wasn`t there. Brady looked old, could not complete the dep pass, and he looked like a declining GOAT. game one was an immediate test, and the Saints beat them 34-23. Brady threw for 6.6 yards per attempt, 2 INTs, and was under a lot of pressure, and was picked off twice. It took a 90 yard drive late in the 4th to make the score look a bit more respectable. The Bucs would go on to win 6 of their next 7 with the only loss a 1 point heartbreaker vs the Bears. They sure seemed poised to get revenge at home 2 months later vs the Saints. It got worse. They lost 38-3 and Brady threw 3 INTs was dropped 3 more times, and was under siege the entire game. Drew Brees had another big game finishing with a 135.2 passer rating, to Brady`s 40.4. The Bucs outside of their best game of the year vs the Packers would go on to go 0-5 vs playoff teams allowing nearly 30ppg. The bottom line here is the Saints is their worse possible matchup. Here is the skinny on Brady. The 2017 season saw him with the smallest gap when under pressure vs no pressure, as pressure made no difference. Since then those numbers have climbed off the chart. This year those numbers have completely tanked as he now has the 4th largest gap throwing with pressure vs no-pressure. Brady generates 8.1 yards per attempt when not under pressure to 5.6 yards per attempt with pressure. This plays right into the Saints strength as they allow 6.5 yards per attempt when they have 4 pass rushers, and 5.2 yards per attempt when the rush 5 or more. Buc`s LT Donovan Smith had 6 blown pass blocks in the 2 games vs New Orleans this year, Alex Cappa fractured his ankle last week and will turn over his starting job to an untested Aaron Stinnie. Brady since the bye has been much better throwing the deep ball at 9.7 yrds per attempt, but that was against Detroit, Atlanta, and all teams the worst at getting pressure. There are some other reasons I like the matchup here, but clearly, what was stated above exposes the biggest advantage on the field in today`s game. Make the play on New Orleans.

I have been watching the weather forecast in Buffalo, and it appears that the potential for high winds will not occur until well after this game. Weather should not play a significant role in this game other than cold and perhaps some snow showers. There is something to learn about how the Ravens defended the Bills in their 2019 meeting. They blitzed Josh Allen on every one of the Bills first 9 plays, and 11 of the first 12. The Ravens are the top blitzing team in the NFL at 45.1% of all opponent snaps. Maybe that work then, but it will be ill advised now. Allen has made perhaps the biggest year-over-year improvement of any NFL QB in history. The Ravens defensive coordinator promised in his press conference, there will be pressure, that's what they do. The 2019 game saw them bring pressure on 31 snaps, sacked Allen 6 times, and forced him to fumble. The word on Allen is to blitz him, and the Ravens send a lot of CB blitzes, and Allen has faced more of those than any QB in the league. Big problem, that doesn't work anymore. Allen ranked 21st in the league to such blitzes a year ago, this year he ranks number 2 behind only Patrick Mahommes. Allen has thrown just 2 of his 10 INTs against the blitz this season. The Bills love to go deep and expect some success in doing so. Buffalo isn't going to run the ball, and the pass heavy offense would be wise to keep the ball in the air the entire game. Tennessee did a good job keeping Baltimore in 2nd and long situations, and Baltimore ranks 25th in those situations. They managed just 20 points against a highly suspect Tennessee defense. The Buffalo defense has been above average since week 10, and the league leading missed tackles on the season, was reduced to just 1 against Tennessee, and they will have to maintain that in this contest. The Bills also should limit the snaps of playing man coverage. This is where Jackson often turns a dead play into a chunk rushing opportunity, and no QB cashes in better than Jackson. This game to me comes down to which offense is more effective, the run heavy offense of the Ravens, vs the pass happy offense of the Bills. The Bills were projected to win 9 games this season, and they won 13. The reason is quite simple, Josh Allen, and Stefon Diggs. It is hard in this era of the NFL to take a run heavy offense vs a pass heavy one. I am playing the Bills in this one.

This game is going to be determined by the top rated LA Rams defense vs the top rated Green Bay Packer offense. There are a few things of note here. I will start with the biggest match up in the game which will be Jalen Ramsey vs Devonte Adams. Adams averaged 98.1 yards per game while Ramsey allowed just 19.3 yards per game. Adams had 18 TD catches and Ramsey allowed just 3. The total yards of those 3 TDs was 7 combined. That gave the Rams defense a very off the charts 4.7 yards allowed to opponent throws to the right side. Here is what isn't spoken about. The Rams ranked 18th in throws to the left, and 21st in throws over the middle. The Rams were the best in the league stuffing the run on 1st down, but were 30th against the pass on 1st down. They were 1st against the pass on 2nd down. The Rams defense is also 31st on third and short. The Rams have faced very few top offenses this season. Their schedule draw saw them play 8 games vs the worst 2 conferences in football the NFC East, and the AFC East. The top 2 offenses they faced in Tampa Bay and Buffalo they allowed an average of 29.5ppg. Green Bay is better. Everyone says defense wins championships. That simply is not the case in the NFL. The Packer defense has been steadily improving, and over its last 5 games they have allowed 17.2ppg. The Rams offense has steadily declined, and with Cooper Kupp questionable, and a dinged up WB that has had a bad year when healthy, and a stud on defense in Aaron Donald that is not 100%, I don't see where they are turning.Let's suppose Adams is taken out of the game by Ramsey. The Packer offense played 2 games without Adams as well, and scored 37 on a big New Orleans defense, and Rodgers QB rating in the 2 games was higher than his season average. The Packers led every game this season by 7 points or more, and allowed 72 points in the 4th quarter in 6 games they led by 18 or more with 10 minutes or less remaining. Take that out of the equation and they allowed the same defensive point average as the Rams. I don't think this game is going to be close. Make the play on Green Bay.

This game fits a total situation that is 195-105 ATS to the under and is 21-8 ATS in the playoffs. Make the play on the under.

The Chicago Bears have snuck into the playoffs at 8-8 on the season. While it appeared that RB Montgomery, and QB Trubisky have appeared to ignite a stale and subpar offense, the improvements are smoke and mirrors. The Bears since week 7 are 3-7. The wins came against Jacksonville, Houston, and Minnesota, with a loss to Detroit. The offense averaged 35 points in those games, but those defenses are all the worst in the league. They have bookended those games with losses to Green Bay, trailing 35-10 going into the 4th in one game and scoring 16 in the other, and the Green Bay defense is in the middle of the pack. Their 5-1 start to the season included wins vs Carolina, Atlanta, the Giants, and the Lions. Their schedule got them to 8 wins, nothing they have done has. New Orleans will have Brees, Thomas, and Kamara all as part of the offense for the first time since week 10. The Bears biggest advantage on offense would have been Mooney, but he is out, and the defense will be missing Roquan Smith. The Bears are becoming injured, the Saints healthy. Playoff home favorites of 10 or more points are 15-0 SU and 12-3 ATS, including 9-0 SU and 9-0 ATS since 2008, winning by 16ppg. This game has blowout written all over it. Make the play on New Orleans.

The Baltimore Ravens are no secret on offense. They are going to run the ball. Lamar Jackson will take advantage of man defense which forces opponents to play zone most of the time. The offense was not very good early on, but from week 11 on they have been back to elite form. So you can decide if it is a product of Jackson getting healthy and back in form, or the product of the poor defenses they have faced. The defenses all ranked 21st or worse. Unfortunately for the Titans, they are one of those poor defenses. The Titans did win in overtime earlier in the season vs the Ravens, but it was the red-zone inefficiencies that stopped the Ravens. Baltimore was stopped on 3 red-zone drives, and punted just 3 times. Those punts were on the opener, just prior to the half after a penalty with :41 seconds left, and a 4th and 5. The passing game is also starting to come around. Marquise Brown had dropped 6 balls, and broken just 4 tackles all season. He created just 7 first downs on 32 deep targets all season. The last 5 weeks he has caught 3 deep TDs and 2 deep first downs on 6 attempts.The Titans have no pass rush, as they have just 19 sacks, and generate pressure the second least in the entire NFL. The Tennessee offense saw Derrick Henry gouge Houston and Jacksonville for 761 yards, so his numbers otherwise don't jump off the page. The Titans generate a lot of their offense off play action, where they have generated 1,541 yards on 174 plays. That has been a Ravens strength as they are 4th best in the league allowing 6.5 yards per attempt vs play action. So that is strength on strength. The biggest edge in this game is the Baltimore offense vs the Tennessee defense. The Ravens travel well at 23-7-1 ATS in their last 31, and my numbers say the Ravens should be a small favorite here. Make the play on Baltimore.

Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks have 107 wins together since Wilson was drafted in 2012. That is 2nd to just the Patriots over the time period. They have had one nemesis, the LA Rams. The Rams have won 10 of the 18 meetings between these teams, the only team that has faced the Seahawks more than twice to have a winning record against them. The 18 meetings have seen 12 decided by a TD or less. While McVay seems to be holding out on Goff's status, he has practiced all week without any impact. I would think he goes for the Rams, but if you think he is a deal breaker consider the Rams beat Seattle and Wilson before with Austin Davis, Shaun Hill, and Kellen Clemens at QB. If the Rams win this game, it will be on defense. Expect McVay to pull off a few gadgets here as the Ram's offense has utilized tight ends and wide receivers 32 times this season for a pair of TDs. The Rams are 2nd in the league in adjusted sack rate. There is also a strong chance that LT Andrew Whitworth is back this week. The Rams defense rank 1st in a lot of categories and the Seattle offense has really struggled over the 2nd half of the season. Seattle has become a run oriented team. They passed 63% of the time over the first half of the season and just 57% of the time since. Special teams have been an issue for the Rams this season, and Seattle has the edge here, but there is nothing better than taking a defensive dog in the playoffs. The Rams are in an 81-52 ATS playoff situation as well. Make the play on the LA Rams.

The Buffalo Bills have been good all season, but have been the best team over their last 10 games where they are 9-1. The only loss over those 10 games came on a Kyler Murray Hail Mary in Arizona. The Bills have also covered 8 straight games.The Colts offense should have success moving the ball as the Bills pressure rate is a rather pedestrian 24.6% and the Colts allow a pressure rate of 18.1%, which is 3rd best in the league. Rivers has thrown all but 2 of his interceptions when he holds the ball for more than 2.5 seconds. The Colts have been the best team in the league in big play running opportunities. If they can get Taylor past the line, Indianapolis may be in for some big running plays. The Bills offense is going to score. Josh Allen has quickly grown into one of the top QBs in the league and his accuracy has taken a quantum leap. There is some question marks regarding the health of Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley, who are not at 100%. Te Colts will play a lot of zone coverage, and hope for a big defensive play as Allen has thrown 8 of his 10 interceptions vs the zone. The Colts can't lose touch with the Bills. They have to slow down the Bills offense, and avoid playing catch up. If they can get this into the 4th quarter with the game undecided they have some advantages to come away with a win, or at least the cover. Playoff teams off a win that have a worse record than their opponents and not a dog of +9.5 or more are 64-41 ATS in the playoffs. Make the play on Indianapolis.

There will be some wind and snow in Green Bay tonight, but most of the snow will occur before the game. The wind should not be strong enough to be much of a factor. This game fits a very strong situation, that plays on teams that are off at least 3 straight games turnover free, as long as their opponent has 3 or more turnovers in their last 3 games and the line is fewer than 5.5 points. For those that use SDQL, it looks like this:

p:TO=0 and pp:TO=0 and ppp:TO=0 and op:TO + opp:TO + oppp:TO>2

ATS:    80-37-4 (3.29, 68.4%)

These games have covered 68.4% of all games, with 121 games in the data set.

Make the play on Green Bay.

The Pittsburgh Steelers opened the season at 11-0, but have now dropped 3 straight. The optics on Ben Roethlisberger are awful. He is either playing through an undisclosed injury, or he is at the end of his career, or both. He can no longer throw down field, and almost every completion is short, and his air yards per pass is the lowest in the NFL. The Steelers offense has become one of the worst in the league over their last 4 games. They have scored just 17ppg after averaging 30ppg through 10 games. Moreover, the Pittsburgh passing game isn't the only issue. The inability to stretch the defense has the running game ground to a halt averaging just 3ypc in the 4 games. The Colts are surging at 10-4 and have won 5 of its last 6 games. Perhaps most notable is QB Phillip Rivers who is having a very good year. The Colts are taking care of the ball, and that is a very positive predictive indicator as a team that has played at least 3 straight clean games, meaning no turnovers, and facing a team that has committed at least 3 turnovers in total over its last 3 games are a sizzling 80-37-4 ATS. Indianapolis also fits a contrary late season indicator that is 267-175-4 ATS. Make the play on Indianapolis.

The Miami Dolphins opened last season with 7 straight losses, and here we are just a year later and the Dolphins are 9-5 and fighting for a playoff spot. Just a few weeks ago the Raiders were 6-3 and looking like a playoff team themselves, but enter this contest at 7-7. The numbers however tell a different story. Miami may be 9-5 but they are getting out-gained by 30 yards per contest, and are below average on both sides of the ball. The Raiders have the biggest advantage with their passing attack vs the weak pass defense of the Dolphins. The Dolphins have turned their opponents over 26 times, and have had 7 games with 2 or more. Turnovers in the NFL are for a large part random. The Dolphins on average in 7 of their 9 wins have held a +1.75 turnover advantage. The Raiders have played a much tougher schedule with 7 playoff teams thus far, logging 3 wins against them. Derek Carr will be back under center, and the QB edge is significant. Miami has some banged up receivers and in general is in a lot worse health than the Raiders. While most bettors like to take the team in need of a win in the last 2 weeks of the regular season, that is totally not the way to go. Week 16 and 17 in the NFL show a long history to prove that point. Play on a team in week 16 and 17 that has the worst record coming into the game as long as they are not an under dog of +5.5 points or more. These teams are 267-175-14 ATS.  Make the play on Las Vegas.

The New York Giants playoff hopes took a hit last week vs Arizona. After 4 straight wins, the Giants were a no-show last week losing 26-7. The Giant's liability has been an offense that is producing 14.3ppg over its last 3 games, and just 300 total yards a game on the season. They will face the red-hot Baker Mayfield offense of the Cleveland Browns. Cleveland has hung 40+ on each of its last 2 opponents with Mayfield throwing for nearly 700 yards in the two contests. QB Daniel Jones is questionable for this game for the Giants and the Browns offense is going to be the best unit on the field for this one. The Giants defense may keep them in it, but Cleveland will come away with another win.

The Seattle Seahawks scored 31 or more points in 7 of their first 8 games. They struggled the next 4 weeks where they failed to score more than 28 in any game, and averaged fewer than 20 points per game. The Jets were just what this tam needed as they scored a season high 40 points. The fact is Seattle has out-gained each of its last 4 opponents allowing fewer than 20 points per contest. While the offense has been slumping the poor defense has really stepped things up. Washington has been a hot team, but QB Alex Smith left last game with a calf injury and his status is up in the air. Wshington has allowed just 14.3ppg in their 4 game winning streak, but have been out-gained in their last 2. The winning streak has been fueled by a positive turnover margin in all 4 games where they are +5. The QB differential here is extremely favorable to Seattle, as Smith has 4 Tds and 6 INTs, and Wilson has thrown for 38 TDs. I think Seattle got their heads back on straight last week, and I think they win big here. Make the play on Seattle.

The Pats were embarrassed last time out vs the Rams in a prime time 24-3 blowout loss. Historically giving him extra time to prepare has been lethal as Belichick coached teams are 25-3 SU and 20-6-2 ATS on 8 to 12 days rest. His team's are also 74-49-3 ATS off a loss. Sprinkle in a 21-5 Su mark vs a rookie QB, and a 65% ATS winning rate vs 1st or 2nd year QBs and there is a lot of situations that historically has New England in a prime position here. The Pats are also 24-1-1 ATS off a loss since 2003 vs a better than .570 opponent to a line that is less than -7. Too much to ignore here. Make the play on New England.

The Baltimore Ravens are desperate for a win, but is that enough? This simply is not the same team as a year ago. Lamar Jackson threw 35 TD passes last year, and he has just 8 this season as his QB rating has gone from 107.8 to 93.2. He is still a dangerous player with the ball in his hands. Baker Mayfield is on a roll and so is Cleveland now eyeing the AFC Central division title with the Pittsburgh loss last night. Mayfield has not thrown an interception in 6 games, after throwing 21 a year ago. The Ravens love to blitz, and do so on almost 50% of all downs, but Mayfield averages 1.3 yards per pass play more against the blitz vs a conventional rush. One of the biggest reason is the maturation of the Cleveland offensive line. They went from poor in the first 6 games to the #! unit in the NFL in pass blocking efficiency. The Browns have Myles Garrett back and he will be a problem as Baltimore has lost LT Ron Stanley an All-Pro player, and Garrett is going to have an impact. Baltimore has lost the explosiveness they showed last season where they scored 40 points in 5 games, and have not gotten to 40 even one time this year, in fact they have reached 30 just 4 times, after averaging more than that last year. The offense is down 6 points per game, and Cleveland is 5 over last year, and hung 40 on the Ravens in a win a year ago. Cleveland has revenge and a situation that plays on a better than .500 team off a road win and cover against an opponent that is off a home favorite win. These teams are 62-25-1 ATS, including 47-15-1 ATS if a dog of 4 or fewer points. Make the play on Cleveland.

Phillip Rivers will take on the Raiders for the 29th time in his career. That will be a new record for a QB facing the Raiders. He certainly has had a lot of success against them with 18 wins and 47 TD passes, along with over 7,000 passing yards. Not sure how meaningful that is, but it is a story for the history books at least. The Raiders barely escaped last week vs the Jets. The Jets chose to blitz, and basically it was a very poor coaching decision. Derek Carr has averaged 8 yards per attempt vs the blitz this year, and just 6.5 yards per pass attempt facing a conventional rush. That is important because the Colts are able to generate a strong pass rush without blitzing. The Colts rank in the top 3 teams in the NFL in terms of fewer blitzes. Not only should that limit Carr this week fom being highly effective, TE Darren Waller had a career-high 200 yards last week vs the Jets (that was more than half of the total passing yards by the Raiders). The Colts have shut down TE's all season, with none generating more than 65 yards, including just 1 TD. WR Hunter Renfroe will be shutdown by Kenny Moore who  ranks in the top 5 in fewest yards allowed per cover snap. Moreover, Josh Jacobs is not healthy, and he will not find a lot of room against a Colt's top 10 run stop unit.I think Phil Rivers faces similar issues against the Raiders defense, but I like the match up much more that the Colts defense has vs the Raiders. The Raiders were at their best when the running game was in high gear. During their 3 game winning streak the Raiders averaged better than 190 rushing yards per game vs Cleveland, the Chargers and Denver. The last 3 has seen that reduced to a woeful 67 yards per game. Josh Jacobs missed last game, and is status is in doubt this week. Make the play on Indianapolis. 

Typical NFL set up game. The Giants are flying off a huge win in Seattle, are top contenders in the NFL East (Least), and have won 4 straight. The Giant`s bandwagon is standing room only. Meanwhile, in Arizona the Card`s are leaking oil severely. Arizona has found the in column in just 1 game in their last 5 and has failed to cover any of them. The Giants held Seattle to 12 points and has not allowed any of their last 4 opponents to score more than 20. Looks like Daniel Jones will be under center again, and he has just 5 TDs to 7 INTs this season and his QB rating is down 10 points. Giants are just 73-100 ATS in their last 173 home games. Make the play on Arizona.

The Buffalo Bills have not won a playoff game since 1993, some 27 years ago. They are on track to make the playoffs this season, and hope to break the drought. San Francisco has been forced to move its home games due to covid-19 so this game will be at a neutral sight in Arizona. This is a classic spot for Circadian Rhythms to impact the game. Sunday and Monday Night NFL games has seen West Coast teams dominate East Coast teams due to the human body clock, something proven by science and backed up by the West Coast team's record which is 36-15 SU and 34-17 ATS, covering 31 years of data. This is a must win for the 49ers if they have any hope of making the playoffs. The Niners have also been king of Monday Night Football where they are 39-14-1 ATS. (7-0 ATS vs AFC since 1994). Buffalo may be 8-3 on the season but has collectively been out-gained by their opponents, while the 5-6 Niners are +48 yards a game vs their 11 opponents to a slightly stronger schedule.I like San Francisco in this one.

The New Orleans Saints were projected to be one of the best teams in the NFL this season. The offense was never an issue, but this team was supposed to be one of the best defenses in the league. They dealt with a lot of early injuries. A little known fact is the Saints since the start of the 2017 season have the best record in the NFL during the regular season at 46-13. Yes, better than the Chiefs, Steelers, and Patriots. They are 46-13 SU and of those 13 losses, 7 have occurred in game number 1,2, and 17. Their poor starts are well documented. They are otherwise 42-6 SU. They have covered 67% of those games. The Saints defense I spoke of earlier has allowed 25 total points in their last 4 games, including 3 to Tampa Bay. They have allowed 832 total yards on 200 plays defended at just over 4 yards per play. Tht is ultra elite. Atlanta is dealing with injuries to a pair of key offensive players. Julio Jones (hamstring) and Todd Gurley (knee), are both questionable, an even if they play, they won`t be 100%. The Saints are 7-0 SU and 7-0 ATS without Brees the last 2 years. The Falcons are 6-24-1 ATS at home off a home win in their last 31 games, failing to cover by over 7ppg, including 0-10 ATS as a home dog, or pick. Make the play on New Orleans

No, write ups this week

Play is on KC

No, write ups this week

Play is on SF

No, write ups this week

Play is on Atlanta

No, write ups this week

Play is on Indianapolis

No, write ups this week

Play is on Minnesota

It appears the Tampa Bay Bucs night game failures has gotten into their heads. So much so that Coach Bruce Ariens as he went as far as scheduling practices at night this week. The Rams. The Rams are well suited to handle the Bucs bevy of talented WRs as they have allowed just 200 air yards a game holding opponents well below their season averages in yards per pass play. The Rams held a more lethal offense in Seattle to 333 total yards in their last game. The Rams have played 6 straight games to the under allowing just over 16ppg. Despite being the 1st team to have 3 Pro Bowl receivers in the fold, Brady has already equaled his INTs from a year ago with 8, and his yards per attempt have not changed. The Bucs are just 5-17-2 ATS in their last 19 as a home favorite, and keep in mind that their next game is vs the Kansas City Chiefs. This looks like a FG type of game, so there is some line value. Make the play on the LA Rams.

The Green Bay Packers had a huge statistical edge last week vs Jacksonville but ha to fight to the finish in a 24-20 home win vs Jacksonville. They will have a strong test vs Indianapolis on the road this week. This game is pretty even statistically, but I believe the biggest things here are the match ups. Indianapolis is strong vs the run, but are vulnerable to the passing game, perhaps the biggest advantage on the field. That advantage is enhanced by Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers is having arguably his best season as a Packer, as his completion percentage is 2nd best of his career,his 26 TD passes project out to finish as his best, his 8.3% TD rate is #2, his QBR rating is a career high, and has been sacked just 10 times, projecting to a career low. Rivers has had a strong career, but just 11 TDs and 7 INTs puts him on schedule to have his 10th straight season with 10 or more (his average 15.3). While he has fumbled just 1 time this year, he has fumbled 8+ times in 9 of the last 14 years, so certainly more coming soon. A game that projects fairly even, is usually decided by the QB and turnovers. That gives Green Bay a strong advantage in this one. Make the play on Green Bay.

The surging Minnesota Vikings opened the season at 1-5, but have rallied back to win 3 straight and look to get to .500 vs the struggling Dallas Cowboys. Dallas may be the first NFL team in history to be 2-7 and have a good shot at winning their division. They will get Andy Dalton back, so will have a legit QB under center after 2 weeks o struggles. The Cowboys are also off a bye. The Dallas defense seems to be getting it together as they held unbeaten Pittsburgh to 46 yards on the ground in their last game. Minnesota is not a good defensive team and Dallas can run out 3 high caliber receivers and opportunities will be there. I think Dallas has a shot for a win here and will gladly take the points. Make the play on Dallas.

Hard to believe that the 3-5-1 Philadelphia Eagles are in 1st place in the NFC Least. Carson Wentz is having an awful year at this point and leads the league in INT`s with 12, and his completion percentage is down to 58.s%. So why are thy such a small under dog vs the 6-3 Cleveland Browns? The Eagles and Wentz offense is at its best when Wentz can move out of the pocket. The offense has not taken advantage of that and Pederson has vowed they are going to start doing a lot more of that, as it puts a lot of pressure on the defense, not Cleveland`s strong suit. The RB combo o Chubb and Hunt are considered one of the leagues best, but guess what? Philly is better generating 5.1 yards a carry vs a schedule of teams allowing 4.4, while Cleveland is 5.1 vs a schedule of teams allowing 4.6. Both teams have been out-gained on the season. Since division realignment in 2002 a road team that has a losing record and lost on the road the previous week are 241-188-5 ATS, including 191-138-2 ATS if they lost their last game as a road dog and are a road dog again, as a below .500 tem. Make the play on Philadelphia.

The Seattle Seahawks are 6-2 and have scored 34 points or more in both losses. It is pretty clear thee offense is elite, but the defense is horrible. Settle QB Russell Wilson is having an MVP season but in the last loss vs Buffalo the Seahawks were don in by 4 turnovers. The fact is Seattle is 6-0 when they turn over the ball 1 time or less, and in their 2 losses they turned the ball over 7 times. Seattle is now 122-97-6 ATS off a loss (18-5-3 ATS lately). They are also 8-2-1 ATS of a double digit loss in their last 11. Wilson is 19-11 ATS as a dog including 16-8 ATS as a road dog. Make the play on Seattle.

Buffalo is off to their best start since 1993. A lot of it is on the maturation of QB Josh Allen. Arizona QB Kyler Murray ha improved tremendously as well, and is on pace to gain over 1000 yards on the ground. I like the match up for Buffalo against th most potent weapon in the Arizona attack in DeAndre Hopkins, who will have to deal with Tre’Davious White, and all-pro corner that just held DK Metclf to 2 catches last week. The Bills defense is coming alive with 13 sacks the last 3 games along with 7 takeaways. The Cards appear to be close to being rebuilt, while the Bills seem to be 1 stap ahead of them at this point. Make the play on Buffalo.

The Miami Dolphins are growing up fast, and are now 5-3 as they come into this game riding a 4 game winning streak. The issue here is the Dolphins have been very fortunate as they are 5-3 but they are getting beaten at the line of scrimmage by 62 yards per contest. They beat the Rams but managed just 145 yards, and were out-gained by over 300 yards. Last week a similar story. Those 2 games saw them generate 4 non-offensive TDs. The Chargers are just 2-6, but have out-gained their opponents by over 60 yards per game. The fact is the Chargers have had 120+ yard advantage on each of their last 3 opponents, and all of their 6 losses have been by 7 points or fewer. The surface says Miami is better, but reality says the Chargers are better.Mke the play on the LA Chargers.

The NFC East has been awful this year and the Philadelphia Eagles lead the division with a 3-4-1 record. The Eagles are by far the freshest team in this game, coming off their bye, while this game makes 10 straight weeks for the Giants. Philly is getting healthy and the Giants are by now physically and mentally beaten up. The Giants last 5 games have been decided by a total of 10 points, and I think that will work against them here being their 10th game in a row. The Eagles are in a situation that plays on a team off at least 10 days rest as a road favorite of -3 to -10 points vs an opponent under .600 that is 49-15 ATS. The Giants are just 8-20 TS in their last 28 home games. Make the play on Philadelphia.

Sunday November 8th, 2020

  Top Side Play · [472] Arizona Cardinals
    Sun Nov 8th, 2020 4:25pm EST   Win/Loss Undecided

Expert Analysis: NOT TOO MANY LIKE THIS ONE:

Most that read this newsletter I frequently shun any system that has fewer than 100 games that comprise the system itself so keep that in mind as you read today`s newsletter. This one is kind of an outlier in that respect because it does not involve all that many back fits and the results speak for themselves and it makes sense to me. I`ll leave that up to the reader to decide. This is for rested NFL favorites that look like this:

1) Favorite on 10 or more days rest.

2) Scored 35 or more points last game

3) Opponent is less than .600

4) Line is -7 or fewer points

5) opponent is better than .400


So that isn`t an over-abundance of crazy conditions, it is a reasonable number of ogical conditions, but again, I will let the reader digest this, and decide, as this is for the most part out of my wheelhouse.

THE STUNNING RESULTS:

rest >= 10 and p:points >= 35 and o:WP < 60 and line >= -7 and WP >40 and F

Record (marg, pct)
SU: 30-0-0 (12.77, 100.0%)
ATS: 29-0-1 (8.32, 100.0%)



This goes back 30 years, so not a lot of plays and these teams have held a cover advantage of 8.32 points. It is interesting to note these teams are 30-0 SU as well, winning by 12.77ppg. The average line is -4.5 points which happens to be exactly where the line on this week`s qualifier presently sits.

Make the play on Arizona

We are in November an this is the time of the year plying in Buffalo could be very challenging for the road team. That won't be the case this Sunday, as game time temperatures are expected in the 60s and sunny, no wind. Buffalo has had trouble running the ball this year, and for a team built on defense, they are upside down in the defensive stats vs their schedule of opponents. That will make life difficult against the hottest QB in the NFL Russell Wilson. The Bills are starting to look like last year's team that started 9-3 and finished 1-4. They are a 6-2 team without a blowout win, and just 2-2 in their last 4 and have failed to cover any of them. They are now a 6-2 team that has been slightly out-scored by their opponents, so lots of red flags here. Scoring on this Seattle team is not difficult, but can you slow them down? Think of this, their have only been 5 teams in the last 20 years to open the season scoring 27 or more points in every game, and they all went to the Super Bowl. I see a lot of edges here for the Seahawks and favorable match ups. Make the play on Seattle.

I'm not going to do a detailed write up for this game. I like Indianapolis regardless of the covid-19 outcomes with a bunch of Raven's players. I also like the hedge, because the line will change considerable if additional Raven's players come down with covid. Make the play on Indianapolis.

The Kansas City Chiefs offense has just not been nearly as dominating than what he have sen in recent years, but the defense has been improved. Carolina is just 3-5 on the season but have out-gained their 8 opponents. They are plus yards on both sides of the ball, and come into this game with extra rest and will get Christian McCaffrey back this week. Teddy Brigewater has really excelled in this role over his career as he is 15-2 ATS in his career as a road dog. The Chiefs have won 2 straight games by 24 or more points, and teams doing so are 39-56-1 ATS including 7-24 ATS if they are an elite team with a winning percentage better than .815. I don't see incentive here for the Chiefs to run up another one, despite going into their bye week next week. Make the play on Carolina.

The New Orleans Saints have had all kinds of problems in the early season for several years, despite so many good teams. Since the start of the 2015 season the Saints are 7-14 SU and 7-14 ATS. They have never had a winning record after 3 games. It seems like week 4 they find their mojo and take off. The Saints from game 4 through game 8 over the same period are 29-4 SU and 26-6-1 ATS. This year has been no exception. The Saints are rolling and have won 3 straight games. They have 20 straight wins from week 4-8, and overall they are 23-2-1 ATS during this time frame when the line is less than -6. The Bears are 5-2 but have been out-gained on the season by 34ypg. They have been held to 280 yards or fewer over their last 4 games,and can't run the ball at all, as they have averaged just 44ypg over those 4 games. The best part of their offense is Allen Robinson, who is now in concussion protocol, and may not see the field Sunday. The look ahead weather forecast in Chicago shows windy conditions (gusts in the 20s), so if you can't run the ball, there is trouble. Brees is 30-14 ATS off of 2 wins the last 5 years. New Orleans defense is better than it looks and they have held 3 teams to a season low in yards. Chicago has scored 16 points or fewer in 10 of their last 23 games, while the Saints have gone for 30+ in 15 of their last 23. The Chicago offense did not snifff the end-zone last week, and are in off a short week as well. Make the play on New Orleans.

POST BYE NFL ROAD FAVORITES READY TO DELIVER:

A short time ago I wrote about a situation involving teams going into their bye. Today in the newsletter we will take a look at certain teams coming off their bye. It is now the part of the NFL schedule where byes are a weekly occurrence. It sets up situations that occur just 1 time per year, and over a prolonged period of time, some traits of these teams have identified themselves. Today in the newsletter we will take a look at a situation where a team off their bye and playing as a road favorite performs, especially if they scored well in their last game previous to the bye. Let's take a look:

1) Off a bye

2)  Road favorite

3)  Scored 28 or more points in their last game before the bye

These teams in the regular season since 1999 look like this:

tp:week+2=t:week and F and p:points>=28 and season>1998 and playoffs=0

That is a pretty simple situation, with powerful results as these teams cover just shy of 70% of all games with a sample size of 122 games. This week the Indianapolis Colts will be in the driver's seat to bring home the bacon on Sunday vs the Detroit Lions.

The Cleveland Browns pulled out an exciting win last week. There was a price in the victory as Odell Beckham was lost to a torn ACL. Baker Mayfield was hot and at one point of the game threw 20 straight completions. Despite perhaps his best outing as an NFL QB, throwing 5 TD passes as well, the Browns had to come from behind to beat a mediocre team. Vegas was hit by covid last week, and it showed as the defense was stung for 45 vs Tampa Bay. Vegas has been up and down but have good wins against Carolina, New Orleans, and Kansas City. You know what you are going to get in this game, a lot of offense as the Raiders games have averaged over 60 points a game, and all 6 have gone over. This will be their 7th straight game vs a team .500 or better. The Browns are 5-2 but have been out-scored by 3 points a game, and now face a better offense, while they are missing their best receiver in Beckham. Browns have 2 wins vs Cincinnati, and a win vs Washington, and Dallas, not all that impressive. Make the play on Vegas.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are the only remaining unbeaten team in the NFL at 6-0. You can be sure they are going to get the Ravens attention this week, who have had 2 weeks to prepare for this one. The Ravens have had no answers for the Kansas City Chiefs, but they sure have vs everyone else. Baltimore over its last 29 regular season games is 25-4. They are 25-1 against everyone else but the Chiefs, with the lone loss a fluke vs Cleveland last year. The rushing numbers are down for Baltimore, but that has some to do with Lamar Jackson nursing an injury, but he has had 2 weeks to prepare and get healthy here and I look for the Ravens to stiffly challenge the strong run stop unit of the Steelers. A team off their bye that scored 28 or more points in their last game previous to the bye is 81-39-2 ATS. (43-16-1 ATS if better than .670. Make the play on Baltimore.

The Seattle Seahawks are coming off their bye, and have had a lot of time to prepare for the Cardinals. Arizona is actually coming off a Monday Night game, and has less time to prepare for Seattle. Russell Wilson is on pace for an MVP season, and the Seahawks are scoring TDs on 9 of every 10 trips in the red-zone. Arizona QB Kyler Murray has beeen somewhat erratic this season, but he is a threat with his legs, and I`m sure the Seattle defense has put a lot of exxtra time into taking him away as a runner, and make them beat him with his arm. Seattle gets a lot of exposure to their 12th man home base of fans, but Seattle is 12-3-2 ATS in their last 17 on the road. Make the play on Seattle.

The Packers went into a beehive last Sunday in Tampa Bay. Green Bay looked like they were going to win big getting off to a 10-0 start, but then the wheels fell off as Aaron Rodgers threw a rare interception, but this one was more costly as it was returned for a TD. He threw yet another, and Tampa Bay woke up in a big way. The Packers were exposed as their first 4 games were all against suspect secondaries, and Tampa Bay is at the top or near the top in pass defense. That won't be the case in Houston. Houston does not have anything close to what Tampa does, and I look for a huge rebound by the Packers and Aaron Rodgers. A team off a road loss that is on the road again redeem themselves quite well having gone 380-296-13 ATS since 2003. Make the play on Green Bay.

The New Orleans Saints buried the Panthers last year 42-10 on the road, so that would certainly make you feel they are in line to do the same. This is not the same looking team as last season. The Saints defense was pretty good in 2019 allowing 21ppg, and they outscored their opponents by nearly 7ppg. This season they are 3-2 and the scoring margin is less than 1 point per game, and the defense has regressed and is allowing 30ppg. I like playing against teams where the coach was with the opposing team, which is the case for Carolina OC Joe Brady. Bridgewater is 20-4 ATS in his carer as a dog, andd the Saints home field has not shown an advantage in division games where they are 27-45 ATS since 1980 including 7-26 ATS as a -6 or more home favorite. Make the play on Carolina.

Last year San Francisco went into the 4th quarter of the Super Bowl looking like they were going to be the winner. They collapsed and were predicted to be back again this year. That doesn't look like it has a chance after getting blown out by Miami at home last week. Jimmy G. was even benched, as things were extremely ugly. Looking ahead this lie was -3 a week ago, and it is now +3.5. That is just way too much movement off 1 game. This is a contrary league, and despite of what is happening thus far this season, the Niners are still a very good football team, and I expect they respond after getting their heads handed to them last week. Typically this is the case in the NFL. The Niners are a toxic public team right now. Like a hot piece of coal, no one wants to touch it. There have been 351 burning embers before them. Those teams which failed to cover the point spread by 27 or more points came back the next week and went 195-145-11 ATS covering 57.4% of all games. This has been even stronger since division realignment in 2002 where these teams have since gone 132-86-8 ATS or 60.6% winners. (18-5-2 ATS if the line is less than +7). Make the play on San Francisco.

The NFL is typically a contrarian league, but there are exceptions, and they get my attention when the exception involves turnovers, the most predictive stat of all in the NFL. The problem is, trying to predict how the ball will bounce isn't always easy. The one lesson to go by, is history. It is a fact that a team's chances of covering goes up with each game that passes where they committed 0 turnovers.

After 1 turnover free game    50.4% ATS
After 2                       54.6% ATS
After 3                       65.5% ATS
After 4                       69.4% ATS
After 5                       77.8% ATS
After 6                      100.0% ATS
After 7                      100.0% ATS

7 is the NFL record so it ends there.
The Packers have completed 4 games on their schedule turnover free which places them at the 69.4% mark. While this is just 1 game, and anything can happen, turnovers are essential to outcome, and the above is the best qualifying way I have found to get a handle on the likely outcome, and is turnover based. Make the play on Green Bay.     

The Minnesota Vikings are off to a 1-4 start, but they have covered 3 of the 5 games. The problem is their are 4 unbeaten teams in the NFL, and 3 of the 4 Minnesota losses have come against them, including a pair by a single point. Granted the Vikings have not looked great, but when 4 of 5 games have come vs Super Bowl contenders that are a combined 16-2 it has kept them under the radar. The Falcons 0-5 start put an end to Dan Quinn on the sidelines and in comes Raheem Morris. The league has changed a lot since he was last a head coach in Tampa Bay in 2011. He was 17-31 SU there, so not sure what the Falcons think they have. QB Matt Ryan is beginning to look old and has not thrown a TD pass in 2 straight games. The last time that happened? His rookie season! Morris left off losing 10 straight games outside of his division, covering just 1. Meanwhile Mike Zimmer is 21-3-1 ATS in his last 25 coming off a loss, if it is not a division game, unbeaten in this role at home. Make the play on Minnesota.

The Cleveland Browns have won just 2 of the last 28 meetings vs the Steelers in Pittsburgh. That includes the last 16 meetings where they have not won even once. This is a match up advantage for Pittsburgh. The Browns have a suspect secondary and if they don't get pressure they do not fare very well. Pittsburgh allows the 7th least sack rate and are right near the top of the league in QB hit rate. QB Baker Mayfield is dealing with injuries to his ribs and shoulder. While the line may seem fair,, there is some hidden value here on the Steelers. Make the play on Pittsburgh.The Cleveland Browns have won just 2 of the last 28 meetings vs the Steelers in Pittsburgh. That includes the last 16 meetings where they have not won even once. This is a match up advantage for Pittsburgh. The Browns have a suspect secondary and if they don't get pressure they do not fare very well. Pittsburgh allows the 7th least sack rate and are right near the top of the league in QB hit rate. QB Baker Mayfield is dealing with injuries to his ribs and shoulder. While the line may seem fair,, there is some hidden value here on the Steelers. Make the play on Pittsburgh.

Right now the optics are high for both these teams. The Cleveland win in Dallas has them looking strong, but truthfully, Dallas has a boatload of under-achieving talent, and what is crazy at 1-3 they trail the division leading Eagles by just half game, in the NFC Least. A quick review of the Brown's resume offers less than meets the eye. They were destroyed by Baltimore 38-6, barely survived Cincinnati at home winning 35-30, and trailed Washington at home in the 4th quarter. The Colts have won 3 straight by a combined score of 83-29, and have a legit defense, and enough offense behind Rivers. The telling story here is the Browns have faced 1 legit defense and scored 6 point. I don't see them getting much room in this one, and their defense is average at best. The Browns put up nearly 40ppg the last 3 weeks, but this isn't Cincinnati, Washington, or Dallas. The Browns are allowing 31.5ppg, and are in trouble here. Make the play on indianapolis.

MREAST NFL MONDAY ODDS CRUSHER

The New England Patriots took a blow losing Cam Newton to covid-19. That means Brian Hoyer will get the nod at QB. Hoyer has an ugly recent resume as he is 0-16 in his last 16 starts. The Chiefs are the best team in the NFL, but there is a way to out-perform the line against them, and you can be certain that Bill Belichick understands this. Since the start of last season, the Chiefs have an amazing line of demarcation. They are 14-0 ATS when their opponent rushes the ball 25 times or less, and 1-7 ATS when the opponent rushes the ball 26 times or more. New England is all about the run, and their ability to run the ball tonight will determine their fate. New England has the #2 rushing offense in the league, and he beat Kansas City 23-16 employing that strategy. The idea of course is to limit the KC possessions, and keep the ball out of Mahomes hands. New England is 29-10 ATS in their last 39 games as a dog of 6 or more and 6-1 ATS under Belichick as a double digit dog. Belichick is also 82-55-4 ATS with revenge, and is 9-4 in his career vs unbeaten teams. (8-1 ATS if prior to week 7). This is the ultimate ugly duckling, the best team vs the best coach. Somehow Belichick and his team seems to rise to the occasion. Make the play on New England.

Who would have thought a 3-0 team would have a QB controversey? Thus is the case with the Chicago Bears. Nick Foles will be the QB going forward. The issue with Foles has always been this. When he is not the man and comes off the bench he has been elite. When he becomes the man, he really stumbles. Indianapolis has the best rated defense in the NFL, but they have also played a schedule of teams that are 1-8 on the season. The same can be said off the Bears who have also played a schedule of teams that are 1-8 on the season. Chicago already has set an NFL record coming from 16 or more points down in the 4th quarter to win both times. The luck will run out here. It could be less than ideal conditions in Chicago Sunday with some rain, and 20 MPH wind gusts. The Colts are the better team on both sides of the ball, and Foles has proven to be a liability throughout his career when he becomes the man. Make the play on Indianapolis.

The Buffalo Bills have started the season at 3-0 for the 2nd straight season. It is the 1st time in 28 years. The Bills went on to start 9-3 a year ago, before falling in 4 of their last 5 including a playoff loss to Houston. Things just look different this season, especially Josh Allen who looks like he has taken the next step. Las Vegas was impressive in its home opener but this team has a lot of injuries on the offensive side of the ball. Vegas QB Derek Carr continues to be fools gold. He has some big games, but some awful ones, and his 2 fumbles last week killed the Raiders chances at New England. The defense is really struggling and I think the Bill's defense has under-performed so far, and could be much better in this game. The Raiders have had 17 losing seasons the last 18 years, and are still climbing the hill, while the Bills have gotten over it, and are just the better team here on both sides. Make the play on Buffalo.

The Jacksonville Jaguars played relatively well in their first 2 games of the season. They beat Indianapolis in their opener, and took Tennessee to the final gun in game 2, before losing 33-30. Last week the wheels fell off vs the Miami Dolphins in a 31-13 loss. Dropped passes, offensive line debacles, and the inability to convert 3rd downs spelled doom for the Jags in week 3. The Jags defense is getting little pressure and has now allowed 30 points or more the last 2 weeks. There are not a lot of reasons to be buying on the Jags right now. The Bengals have not been able to protect Joe Burrow at all. The NFL has been a grave yard for winless home favorites of 3 points or less prior to week 5 as they are a woeful 24-51-4 ATS. This game should be a toss up, and with situational support. Specifically game 4 of more than -1 not off a bye and a winning percentage below .500 are 33-68-2 ATS. Make the play on Jacksonville.

Russell Wilson has set an all-time record by throwing 4 or more TDs in each of his first 3 games. He is looking like a hands down MVP after 3 weeks, but it is a long season. This may be the perfect spot to play against him. They will be playing in what could be heavy rain in Miami and high winds on Sunday. The Seahawks will also be playing on the East Coast, and high humidity. Lost in the shuffle is the fact that Seattle is allowing 2 yards shy of 500 per game. The Dolphins have had 10 days to prepare for this one, and Seattle is also off consecutive games vs Dallas and New England that went to the wire. Seattle has been out-gained by 89 yards per game on the season, so what Wilson has done so far, is almost 100 yards less than what opponents have done to Seattle. Big overlay here, and I will play on Miami.

The Denver Broncos decided that Drew Lock was their best option at QB. The offense was not all that great with him, but since he went down with an injury the offense has been pathetic generating just 4 yards a play. Former Boise St. QB Brett Rypien will be under center for this one. I would imagine the schemes will be simplified when the Broncos have the ball. Rypien was undrafted, and failed to even make the roster, so an already sluggish offense could become much worse. While the Jets do not do many things well, they have been very good getting pressure. The Jets are the only team in the NFL that has not had the lead in any game on the season, but that may prove fruitful tonight, as an NFL team that has gone at least 2 straight games without having the lead are 256-211-16 ATS or cover just shy of 55% of all games (56% at home), from a near 500 game sample size. The Broncos have a myriad of key injuries, including their top receiving option in Courtland Sutton. The Jets have now become a 1 point favorite and Thursday Night favorites are 142-100 ATS. make the play on the NY Jets.

A lot of eyes are on Devante Adams for this game. Adams is crucial to the Packer offense, as he has 17 receptions in 20 targets on the season, in just 108 snaps. That means Rogers has targeted him in 1 of every 6 offensive plays. That puts added pressure on the rest of the pedestrian Packer receivers, who will be covered by better defenders. The Packers list Adams as doubtful, and playing on turf this week, will likely mean he is sidelined. The Packers have numerous key injuries, and while Rodgers has come up big in his first 2 games, against weak defenses, this is a much bigger challenge. New Orleans is much better than they have shown thus far. This is nothing new for the Saints that for some reason struggle through the first 2 weeks of the season where they have gone 4-17-1 ATS since 2010. The awakening seems to kick in from that point on where they are 88-59-1 ATS.  The Packers have looked great producing 40+ points in each of their first 2 games, but they will be challenged here by a New Orleans team, that overall is better than they have shown. Make the play on New Orleans.

This is going to be an ugly, unfavorable pick. One of those hold your nose, NFL specials. The Detroit Lions are 34-98 SU in their last 132 road games. The Detroit Lions have now set an NFL record as they have now lost 4 straight games in which they had a 10 or more point lead in any of them. Meanwhile, in Arizona Kyler Murray is getting rave reviews. He is not only connecting with DeAndre Hopkins, but he has run 21 times for 158 yards. The Cards are being touted as the most improved team in the league. That has resulted in a public blitz of the Cards, who are taking over 70% of the bets. People are lining up like it is free money. Well, the Lions are bad, but in the dirty road numbers comes this tidbit. Detroit is 46-32-2 ATS on the road to a line of +5 or more. Week 3 NFL teams off 2 against the spread losses and have 0 wins, and their combined against the spread margin is -12 or worse are 74-43-1 ATS. If they are facing an opponent that allows fewer than 35ppg they are 60-30-1 ATS, including 18-$ ATS if their opponent is off 2 ATS wins, and 15-2 ATS if they are a dog. These numbers don't look like something the betting public has seen, and by pushing the line to 6, I'm buying ugly. Make the play on Detroit.

The New England Patriots came up a yard short of being 2-0 to start the season. They are a very difficult team to beat when they are coming off a loss. The Pats are 38-18-2 ATS off a loss since 2004, including 29-7-1 ATS if they are not favored by -7 or more. (7-0 ATS in this time frame vs a team off a dog win. Las Vegas is not only off a home dog win, they opened their new stadium by taking down a very good New Orleans team. That will be tough enough to overcome a letdown, but on top of it they have to travel on short rest all across the country to New England. Cam Newton was a great signing by New England who always seems to come up with what they need. The last 4 times a road dog won as a MNF home dog, they have lost all 4 by an average of -21ppg. Belichick has a way of galvanizing his team off a loss, and the situation looks very ripe here. Make the play on New England.

There is a lot to unpack in this game, as injuries have taken a lot of strength away from these teams. The San Francisco 49ers may be without 3 defensive linemen. I think this is a good spot for Daniel Jones, as despite the loss of Sheppard, the Giants still have a wealth of capable receivers. Jones is often under extreme pressure, and makes a lot of mistakes when that is the case, but the 49ers defense is not only down 3 linemen, they are without Sherman in the secondary. Jimmy Garoppolo is likely out as well, and that means Nick Mullins will be under center.Deebo Samuel is out and George Kittles has been limited in practice, and the fact that the Niners claim the field caused the injuries last week, here they are back at the same field, so perhaps their err on the side of caution and hold Kittles out? The Giants aren't as bad as many think, and this simply is not the 49ers team that was in the Super Bowl last year. I will make the play on the NY Giants.

While Joe Burrow has covered his first 2 games in the NFL, his performance sure has not been that complimentary. he has put the ball in the air just shy of 100 times already in 2 games, and averages a league low in yards per pass. The one thing the Eagles have is a secondary that can slow down the Bengals top targets. The Bengals have some issues on their front line, and I would think that Malik Jackson and Fletcher Cox are going to be in his grill all game. Carson Wentz has been no picnic through 2 games himself. That part of this match up is not as foreboding as the Eagles ground game that is right near the top of the league, against a Bengals run stop unit that ranks among the worst. The Eagles look a lot worse than they have actually been as they have a negative 5 turnover margin through 2 games, which will not continue going forward. I think this line has been fueled by the way the Eagles have burned bettors, while the Bengals have rewarded them. I was waiting for this to get to -4 and it has, and I will make the play on Philadelphia.

The Sunday Night Football game is between a pair of heavyweights as New England heads to Seattle to take on the Seahawks. Seattle QB Russell Wilson is off a huge game completing 31 of 35 passes with 4 TDs and 0 INT's. While Wilson stole all the fanfare, and rightfully so, the Seattle defense was brutally bad. The defense allowed 506 yards. They couldn't guard anyone as 3 receivers had over 100 yards, and 4 caught passes good for 20 yards or more. New England won their first game with Cam Newton under center. He played well, and showed he was healthy running for 75 yards and a pair of TDs. The New England ground game amassed over 200 yards. A team rushing for 175 or more yards in game one is 51-35-1 ATS in game 2. Seattle is known for being an elite home team. That is due to them going 39-6 SU from 2012-16. They have since been 14-10 SU or about average. The Seattle defense is really bad, and getting another near perfect performance from Wilson against a Bill Belichick defense and game plan isn't likely. There will also be no fans so what ever home field edge the Seahawks are maintaining is diminished. This game implies a +7 line on New England if fans were in the stands, and I just don't see it. Make the play on New England.

A pair of playoff hopefuls the Minnesota Vikings and the Indianapolis Colts will square off in Indianapolis. This immediately becomes a pivotal game as the loser will move to 0-2 on the season. Philip Rivers had a mostly good debut in Indianapolis last week, but once again he is haunted by turnovers. Rivers 2 INTs put him at 200 for his career, and moved his overall record to 77-84 SU, from the 5th year of his career to the present. He should once again have strong passing numbers vs a Minnesota team that saw their weak secondary exposed by Aaron Rodgers last week. I'm going to ride with a lot of very strong bounce back situations, with one being 102-41-4 ATS. Another is a week 2 specific situation that shows that a team that lost in week 1 as a favorite are 44-27-2 ATs in week 2. That goes to 30-11-2 ATS if the line is fewer than +6 and since 2010 that has been even stronger at 14-1-1 ATS. Make the play on Minnesota.

The Denver Broncos host the Tennessee Titans on Monday Night football. There is a lot of excitement for this Tennessee team, coming off a strong playoff performance from last year. They were a fairly ordinary team coming into the playoffs and the hype is in full force this season, and I think that leaves the team overrated early in the season. Derrick Henry had an amazing season, especially in the playoffs. He carried the ball over 300 times and when you add in the playoffs he was on the doorstep of 400. Since 2011 there have been 11 players top the 300 carry mark and their next season was dramatically worse. There was just 1 of the 11 that increased their rushing yards the following year and that was Marshawn Lynch. Despite increasing his yardage he did so at a price, 4.2 yards per carry vs 5.9 the previous year. Including Lynch the average yards per carry dropped from 4.75 to 3.99. The average yards gained dropped on average by 762! Denver has a long history of winning early at home. They are 33-4 SU and 22-11-4 ATS at home in weeks 1 and 2. The simple reason is early in the season most NFL players are not in game shape yet, and playing in the altitude in Denver really takes its toll. When the line is -7 or fewer points that jumps to 19-5-4 ATS, including 10-1-3 ATS at -3 or less. (4-0-1 ATS as pick or dog). This year I think that advantage is even greater with training camps limited due to covid-19, and no exhibition games. Good spot tonight for the Broncos, make the play on Denver.

This one opened at -4.5 for the Saints, but th Brady lovers, and the hype of the Tampa Bay offense has cut a point off the opener. This is a tough year to field a team with so many key transitional players, as they have had less time on the field, and no practice games to get a sense of timing down. Tom Brady has seen his yards per pass attempt decline in each of the past 4 years from 8.2 to 7.9 to 7.6 to 6.6. His 24 TD passes a year ago were his fewest since 2006. He ill have a much more talented receiving core this season, but in this game, will he be able to take advantage? I believe the Saints defense could be the best in the entire NFL this season. This game will be influenced by the Saints bringing in Malcolm Jenkins. He is the top slot defender in the NFL. Brady has had Welker, and Edelman as his favorite targets pretty much his entire career. I think Jenkins will shutdown the Buc's solid slot receiver in Chris Goodwin. I also think the fact that Brady no longer throws the long ball, as his depth of target last year was 8.0 ranking 28th, and Mike Evans benefitted from gunslingers Fitzpick-6, and Winston who threw downfield a lot. Where Brady will be an immediate upgrade is in turnovers. Brady knows how to take care of the football, and Winston threw 30 INTs a year ago, and also lost 5 fumbles. The Bucs defense looked bad last year but was actually very good. They had to defend short fields on 35 turnovers, and spent too much time on the field, and will improve substantially this year. The Saints offense should be ahead of most, as they have pretty much the same team as a year ago, while Tampa may be the most impacted, as they have a lot of new faces. The Saints are one of few teams that are talented enough in the secondary to match up with Tampa Bay, and the Bucs OL is going to get Brady sacked a lot more than he is used to. This is a good opening spot for the Saints, especially with the public putting their hand on the scales. Make the play on New Orleans.

The San Francisco 49ers come into the 2020-21 NFL season as the Super Bowl loser. They coughed up a 10 point 4th quarter lead. Things have not gone well for the previous year's Super Bowl loser as they are 4-16 ATS over the last 20 years in game 1. Arizona has covered 5 straight vs San Francisco, and have covered 4 straight on the road in this series. I think Arizona is going to be considerably improved with Murray a bit more mature. Arizona Cliff Kingsbury certainly thinks so, as he promises to push the pace, and the Cards were already ranked 4th last year in that department. He now has a top shelf core of receivers with DeAndre Hopkins, Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk. San Francisco comes into game 1 pretty banged up. I think the Cards are going to surprise a lot of people here this year, and have played well in San Francisco. Make the play on Arizona.

The Green Bay Packers are 11-3 and are almost a TD underdog in Minnesota. There are a lot of reasons for that. The Packers are being out-gained substantially by opponents on the season, and in their last 6 games has out-gained just Washington, while being out-gained by the LA Chargers, Carolina, SF, NYG, and Chicago. long ago the St. Louis Cardinals have coined the fastest team on turf. Well, Minnesota is the best team on turf. the Vikings on turf as a less than double-digit favorite prior to week 17 are 27-3 SU and 27-3 ATS (14-0 SU/ATS lately). The Packers are not or never have been a good turf team. They are 78-50-2 ATS on the road playing on grass and 53-74-1 ATS on turf. Rodgers is 7-18 ATS in his last 25 as a road dog. The first game saw GB get out to a 21-0 lead less than a minute into the 2nd quarter at home and had to hold on for a 21-16 win. That game saw Minnesota fumble a season-high 5 times (lost 2), but disrupted 3 other drives, and had 1 INT. Cousins 70.5% completions on the season was 14-32, and the Vikings were penalized 100 yards. Minnesota was 0-2 in the red-zone, while GB was 3-3, but did not sniff the red-zone for the last 44 minutes of the game. This is a huge revenge game for Minnesota, and they are in a very favorable matchup. Make the play on Minnesota.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have been rolling despite one of the worst offenses in the league. They have gotten by with defense and an inordinate amount of forced turnovers as their opponent has coughed the ball up 33 times in 13 games. Looking at the 8 wins the combined record of those opponents is 33-70-1. The combined record of their opponents in their 5 losses is 48-17. The defense allowed 26.4ppg in the losses and 14.8ppg in the wins. Do questions arise as to just how good this defense really is? I would think so. Buffalo is 9-4 on the season, and the eye-test says they are the better team. The Bills simply don't turn the ball over (just 2 turnovers in their last 8 games). Make the play on Buffalo.

If there was ever team in a huge flat spot or breather alert it is the San Francisco 49ers. They are off 3 consecutive games vs Green Bay, Baltimore, and New Orleans and after this one, they face the Rams and Seahawks. Atlanta has an offense that can compete vs a big line, and the Niners believe it or nor are a double-digit favorite for just the 2nd time in 6 years! (did not cover either). The Niners will be without most of their secondary and they are also down 3 defensive linemen. Falcons are 3-2 in their last 5 hames and continue to play hard. Certainly could see a competitive game here, and the Falcons also have great backdoor potential. Make the play on Atlanta.

The Baltimore Ravens are off 3 straight games vs elite teams. They will play their last 2 games vs elite teams. Sandwiched between all of that are the NY Jets. If there was ever a chance for a "breather alert" this is it for the Ravens. A full 60 minute "A" game performance is unlikely. Lamar Jackson is also on the injury report with a quad injury but he will play. I doubt he will be running as often as usual. The Jets run defense is among the best in the league, and without a totally healthy Jackson, they should get enough stops to be able to stay in the game. This has never been a food spot for the Ravens who are now 12-0 SU but kist 1-11 ATS as a favorite of -10.5 or more since 2010. favorites have dominated Thursday Night NFL Football, but not this year and home teams in 2019 have won just 53.5% SU the lowest mark in at least 28 years. Home favorites this year are just 47-73-6 ATS and 3-6 ATS on Thursday. The public has pushed this game into line value for the visitor. Make the play on the NY Jets.

The reason the Bucs have 5 wins is Jameis Winston. The reason the Bucs have 7 losses is Jameis Winston. he has thrown multiple interceptions in half the Bucs games, and that is why this team is on a roller-coaster ride. He threw nome last week, which is ominous because the 3 previous times he did so he threw a combined total of 8 in his next game. he has 20 for the season. he has also been sacked 40 times on the season. he has thrown 78 INTs in 60 career games so this is nothing new. The Colt's blessing comes in disguise. They have lost 6 games this season and 5 have been by 2,3,4,6, and 7 points and last week's loss to Tennessee was because of bad things happening late in the game. The blessing is Adam Vinatieri is injured. He had a great career but has likely kicked in his last game. Vinatieri missed 6 extra points and 8 FGs this season. That means he left 30 points on the field and 5 Indy losses came by a total of 20 points. If the Colys had just an average kicker they would be 9-3 right now. They will have one here. make the play in Indianapolis.

Probably the hardest thing to conceive is that the Bears will be an underdog for just the 3rd time this season. That speaks volumes to me just how overrated this team is after an impressive record last year. They are off a pair of wins to weak teams and limped across the finish line in each one. Dallas was totally humiliated by Buffalo last week and lost to New England the week before in a rain game. Dallas maybe 6-6 but they have a scoring margin on the season of +6.2. That ranks 3rd in the NFC, less than a half-point from #2 Minnesota. I expect the Cowboys to put up a huge effort here in this one. Dallas is out-gaining opponents by 111 yards per game, while Chicago is being out-gained by 32 yards a game. That is 143 yards per game from the line of scrimmage which translates to about 10 points. Clearly, the Cowboys are the advantaged team here in this one. make the play on Dallas.

The NFL decided with the start of the 2006 season they would add a night game to the Thanksgiving Day slate. Since the onset the favorite has been 10-3 SU and 9-4 ATS in these games. Home dogs have certainly struggled on Thanksgiving at 10-21 ATS and division home dogs have not covered a game since 2003 at 0-6 ATS. Home favorites on Thanksgiving with same season revenge are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS. When a game involves a home dog and a total of 43 or more the home dogs are 1-18 SU and 4-15 ATS, including 0-6 ATS to a line of +7 or more (watch line), failing to cover by 25.7ppg. Make the play on New Orleans.

The Green Bay Packers will head to San Francisco to take on the 49ers. This game has huge playoff implications, as the winner will have a leg up on a potential playoff bye. The Packers will be rested, but at the same time this will be their 3rd road game in their last 4, and the road has not been as good for Aaron Rodgers over his career as playing at Lambeau. Rodgers is just 20-25 SU in his last 45 road games. he is also just 8-17 SU as an underdog. The Packers are 8-2 but surprisingly have been out-gained from the line of scrimmage by 30 yards per game, while the Niners have out-gained opponents by 133 yards per contest. The Niners are allowing just 143 yards in the air per game, and Rodgers is likely to underperform in this one. this game looks closer than it should as a dig down into the stats shows a clear decisive edge to the Niners. The Packers are just 6-10 ATS in their last 16 off their bye vs .500 or better teams. Make the play on San Francisco.

The NY Jets have put together a 2 game winning streak. they have proven that they can beat bad teams in the NY Giants and Washington Redskins. let's not forget this team has lost 5 games this season by 14 or more points. Sam Darnold has 11 TDs to 10 INTs so far, and his last 3 opponents have been terrible teams. Jon Gruden is doing a food job rebuilding this Oakland team and they are on a 3 game winning streak, and a playoff contender. QB Derek Carr is having a strong season with 15 Rds to 5 INTs and a passer rating of 105.2. His career numbers vs the Jets show 3-0 ATS a 121.6 passer rating with 9 TDs and 0 INTs. The Jets average just 248 yards per game and scored 6 vs Philly, 0 vs NE, and 15 vs Jacksonville, as well as just 18 vs Miami in a loss. Make the play on Oakland. 

It is hard to believe at 4-6 on the season the LA Chargers have control of their own playoff destiny with 2 games vs KC and 1 with Oakland. That being said, their season is on the line tonight. The Chargers were projected for 10 wins this season, and the 4-6 record points to a lot of value tonight. The Chargers have not lost any game this season by more than 7 points, and no team has scored more than 27 points on them in 10 games. What has killed this team is 5 turnovers in goal-to-goal situations. Expect a full dose of Melvin Gordon tonight. He is rounding into form and will be key vs a KC run defense ranked #31 in the league. Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram have recorded 9 sacks combined in the last 4 games. The Chargers spent the entire week at the Air Force Academy to get acclimated to the 7000 ft. altitude in Mexico City and the Chargers were favorites in their first 6 games, and are now playing their 5th straight as a dog. Each of the Chiefs last 8 games have all been decided by 7 points or fewer, so this is not last season. This line says KC would be favored by better than a TD at home, and neither teams has been better than a TD vs anyone for most of the season. The Chiefs and Mahomes have been the sexy pick by bettors and over 60% are backing them here driving even more value into the line. make the play on The LA Chargers.

Lamar Jackson is a freak athlete, and each game he gets better and better and has become the most dangerous dual-threat QB perhaps in NFL history. Jackson has run for 702 yards already through 9 games, and barring injury will break Michael Vick's record of 1,039. The Ravens offense is getting better than their 33.3ppg average on the season and scarier still is the defense is starting to come around. The Ravens have allowed 16.5ppg in their last 4. They scored 37 on New England, a team that had better defensive marks than any team in NFL history. The Ravens are now 13-3 in his 16 NFL regular season starts. The Ravens are clock consumers at home where they average an NFL best 36:05 of possession limiting opponents to 23:55. Houston is 6-3 on the season and while their offense has been good all year the defense has been very ordinary. I think they are going to struggle on the road to slow down this emerging freight train. Make the play on Baltimore.

I am once again hedging here as Detroit QB Matthew Stafford is still questionable with a hip injury. The line says the oddsmakers are saying he is playing. If dor some reason he does not this will go to -6.5 or -7. I like the line even with Stafford playing if he is out we get a grand slam! The Cowboys have the most talented roster in the league on both sides of the ball yet here they are at 5-4, and making the playoffs is still in question. Detroit is an average team that throws the ball a bit better than average, but with Stafford's health in question, if he plays may be injured enough to make them average. Dallas out-gains opponents by 114 yards per game and despite New England coming up next this won't be a look ahead, especially off a loss, and I think the alarm will have sounded now. If they want to make the playoffs this has to be a win. Dallas is 4-1 ATS this year vs teams that are .500 or less and 0-3 ATS vs winning ones. They win vs the .500 or less teams by 15ppg on average. Make the play on Dallas.

This one will make you cringe I'm sure. The Buffalo Bills are off to a 6-2 start but when you look at their 2nd easiest NFL schedule it doesn't say much. They have 6 wins vs a schedule of teams that are 9-42 on the season. I know Cleveland is 2-6 and has looked awful, but 2 wins is better than the average team that Buffalo beats, think about that one. The Browns will get another playmaker back as Kareem Hunt has served his 8 game suspension and he is certainly capable of being an impact player. This game has "stink" written all over it. The public is buying in high with Buffalo, no one can believe Cleveland is favored. I've been to this rodeo before, not taking the bait! It is tare for a 2-6 team to be favored over 6-2 team, however, when it occurs, BEWARE! A team with a winning percentage of less than .375 that is favored over a team that is greater than .700 from week 8 on (legitimizing the records), are 13-2 ATS. If the line is from -1.5 and up they are 12-1 SU and ATS. Hold your nose and make the play on Cleveland.

I just have too much stuff for this game to pass it up. I have a 102-44 ATS situation on Cincinnati as well as a big dog off a bye situation that is 21-1 ATS and a negative letdown situation against Baltimore that is 2-22 ATS. This is the definition of an ugly pick. Make the play on Cincinnati.

The Dallas Cowboys certainly have had their way vs the NY Giants. QB Dak Prescott in particular who is 69-101 for 1,053 yards 9 TDs and 0 INTs in his last 3. Giants QB Daniel Jones has had some moments but is still a work in progress with an 84.4 passer rating 10 TDs and 7 INTs on the season. Dallas come in off of their bye, and this situation fits tonight:

rest >= 10 and p:points >= 35 and o:WP < 60 and line >= -7 and WP >40 and F

SU: 28-0-0 (12.21, 100.0%) Teaser Records
ATS: 27-0-1 (7.82, 100.0%)

as well as this MNF example:

p:W and MNF and rest=14 and F and date>20031006

SU: 15-0-0 (18.07, 100.0%) Teaser Records
ATS: 13-1-1 (11.60, 92.9%) avg line: -6.5

Also MNF road favorites are 27-16 ATS last 43 from -5.5 to -10.5.

Make the play on Dallas.