Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-16-19 | Appalachian State -16 v. Georgia State | Top | 56-27 | Win | 100 | 105 h 18 m | Show |
The Georgia St. Panthers have taken a big blow as QB Dan Ellington has been declared out with a knee injury vs Appalachian St. Ellington's 18 TDs to just 4 INTs will be missed as he will be replaced by QB Cornelious Brown. Brown is just 8-23 on the season for 3.5 yards per attempt with 0 TDs and 1 INT. he will be over-matched by a strong Appalachian St. defense. Moreover, the pretty good Georgia St. running game, featured the running ability of Ellington as well. The lack of a threat in the passing game is going to allow Appalachian St. to load up the box and stop the running game cold. The Panthers defense is awful so Appalachian St. should score often here, and should win this one big! Make the play on Appalachian St. |
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11-16-19 | Georgia v. Auburn +3 | Top | 21-14 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 44 m | Show |
This is a big game as Georgia is 8-1 on the season and Auburn is 7-2. A win here vs Georgia and a win vs Alabam and the Auburn fortunes change considerably. The Georgia offense has really struggled this season. They have failed to put more than 27 points pm the board this season against any viable opponent. The defense has been rock solid and there is a bit about their whole season. The eye-test says something is wrong. One thing for sure this team has had a very easy schedule when you consider they opened on the road at Vanderbilt, played at Tennessee on October 5th, and have had no other road games. This is going to be the first test they have had in a true road game since losing 36-16 at LSU last October, over a year ago. Auburn freshman QB Bo Bix is considerably better at home. he is 8.2 yards per pass attempt at home, and 5.8 on the road. He completes 60% at home and just 50% on the road. he has 1220 yards at home and just 578 on the road. He runs better at home as well. There is a lot to like about this Auburn defense that held LSU to 23 points in Baton Rouge. I love a quality home dog, that has a great defense, has 2 weeks to prepare, and revenge. They beat a quality Oregon team and lost to #1 on the road by 3. All their tough games were away from home, now they get this one home. Make the play on Auburn.
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11-15-19 | Louisiana Tech v. Marshall -6 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
A big matchup tonight in C-USA, as (8-1) Louisiana Tech will face host Marshall (6-3). The news is not good for LA Tech as they will take the field down 3 key players due to suspensions. QB J.Mar Smith is among them. Smith is a 3-year starter and will be replaced by Aaron Allen. Allen will be making his first start of the season as a freshman. Missing as well will be top WR Adrian Hardy and OLB James Jackson. These are all key contributors. The weakest part of this Marshall team is a somewhat suspect secondary and I think that advantage for LA Tech is now lost. Marshall is a very tough out at home, and 2 of their 3 losses on the season have come against Cincinnati and Boise St. LA tech has had a much easier schedule and owns just 1 win vs a winning team, and their other 7 wins have come vs Grambling and 6 FBS opponents with a combined 14-43 record. This is now a favorable matchup for Marshall, who is on a 4 game winning streak and feeling pretty good. LA Tech is also in a 208-265 ATS situation. make the play on Marshall.
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11-12-19 | Eastern Michigan -16.5 v. Akron | Top | 42-14 | Win | 100 | 3 h 24 m | Show |
The Akron Zips have certainly lived up to their name this season at 0-9 SU and ATS. They have not found the end-zone in 4 straight games. The 4 games saw them going against poor defenses in 3 of them that stopped them cold and while E. Michigan isn't a food defensive team, they are considerably better than the 3 poor defenses that kept the Zips from crossing the goal line. This isn't as good of an EMU team as we have seen the past few years, but they are good enough, and at 4-5 on the season this is a mandatory win if they seek Nowl eligibility once again. Make the play on E. Michigan. |
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11-11-19 | Seahawks v. 49ers -6 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
Monday Night Football has been around for a long time, and back in the early days, the Oakland Raiders dominated on Monday Night. That crown has been taken over by the San Francisco 49ers who are 39-13 ATS in their last 52 Monday Night affairs. QB Russell Wilson has had a very good season, but he will be matched up against the best pass defense in the NFL one that allows 4.9 yards per pass attempt vs a schedule of teams generating 6.4. The once-dominant Seattle defense is now one of the worst in the league and San Francisco is more than capable of exploiting it in every way. Not only do the stats favor the Niners here across the board, but the situations are also aplenty as well. MNF home teams better than .800 vs a team better than .500 to a line of less than -9 and a total greater than 37 (not playing a great defense) since 2000 are 23-3-2 ATS: day = Monday and H and WP > 80 and o:WP >= 50 and line >= -9 and total > 37 and season > 2000SU:26-2-0 (12.57, 92.9%) Teaser RecordsATS:23-3-2 (8.38, 88.5%)That becomes 21-0-2 ATS if their scoring margin is greater than 10 and the opponents is less than 14. The Niners are also 21-3 ATS on Monday Night vs an elite opponent that is better than .720 including 11-0 ATS at home. Make the play on San Francisco.
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11-10-19 | Chiefs -4 v. Titans | Top | 32-35 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 56 m | Show |
Expert Analysis: As it stands right now the Tennessee Titans will be playing their 9th straight game where the line is fewer than 4 points either way. They have essentially played in toss-up games all season and at 4-5 they are about where that says they should be. While Ryan Tannehill has given the offense a bit of a lift, the turnovers hurt. Perhaps of greater concern is the Titans through 6 games were allowing 15.3ppg but in the last 3, they have allowed 20 in all of them at 24.3ppg. I really think that Pat Mahomes will start for KC this week and I`m trying to get in front of the line because if he does this is going to move upward. The Chiefs pass defense has been very high level, and while they are a bit below average against the run, the Titans just don`t seem to be able to take advantage of that as they are generating just 3.9 yards a carry vs a schedule of teams allowing 4.4. This is a great line if Mahomes starts, and a good line if Moore starts. Make the play on Kansas City.
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11-10-19 | Ravens v. Bengals UNDER 46 | Top | 49-13 | Loss | -105 | 118 h 25 m | Show |
This game fits my strongest NFL totals situation (at least by winning percentage).This game fits a 46-5 ATS situation and the play is on the under. |
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11-10-19 | Lions v. Bears UNDER 42.5 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 118 h 24 m | Show |
This game fits a long term under angle that is 591-420-19 ATS. Make the play on the under.
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11-10-19 | Bills v. Browns -2.5 | Top | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 48 h 3 m | Show |
This one will make you cringe I'm sure. The Buffalo Bills are off to a 6-2 start but when you look at their 2nd easiest NFL schedule it doesn't say much. They have 6 wins vs a schedule of teams that are 9-42 on the season. I know Cleveland is 2-6 and has looked awful, but 2 wins is better than the average team that Buffalo beats, think about that one. The Browns will get another playmaker back as Kareem Hunt has served his 8 game suspension and he is certainly capable of being an impact player. This game has "stink" written all over it. The public is buying in high with Buffalo, no one can believe Cleveland is favored. I've been to this rodeo before, not taking the bait! It is tare for a 2-6 team to be favored over 6-2 team, however, when it occurs, BEWARE! A team with a winning percentage of less than .375 that is favored over a team that is greater than .700 from week 8 on (legitimizing the records), are 13-2 ATS. If the line is from -1.5 and up they are 12-1 SU and ATS. Hold your nose and make the play on Cleveland. |
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11-10-19 | Ravens v. Bengals +10.5 | Top | 49-13 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 54 m | Show |
I just have too much stuff for this game to pass it up. I have a 102-44 ATS situation on Cincinnati as well as a big dog off a bye situation that is 21-1 ATS and a negative letdown situation against Baltimore that is 2-22 ATS. This is the definition of an ugly pick. Make the play on Cincinnati. |
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11-09-19 | Wyoming v. Boise State -13 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -118 | 54 h 30 m | Show |
Boise St. will host 6-2 Wyoming in a crucial Mountain West tilt. Wyoming has really battled the injury bug, and none hurt more than losing QB Sean Chambers last week for the season. Chambers was not an accurate passer, but an effective one. Where he will be missed the most is the running game as he rushed for 567 yards on 90 carries. The Cowboys will also be without RB Trey Smith (44-227), and RB Titus Swen (67-337). That is 57% of the carries, and Chambers's running threat is what drove the running game as Wyoming is a weak passing team. Chambers will be replaced by Tyler Vander Waal who played a lot last year but completed just 48% of his passes 5 TDs and 4 INTs. he also was -63 yards rushing, so the rushing yards are going to be tough to come by as Boise St. puts 8-9 in the box and dares them to throw. Vander Waal is just 4-16 this season. Boise St. freshman QB Hank Bachmeier has been solid, throwing for 9.2 yards per attempt. The weak part of the Wyoming defense is against the pass. Additionally, Wyoming will be missing 2 starting tackles from the offensive line. Hard to see Wyoming scoring much at all here. Make the play on Boise St. |
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11-09-19 | Liberty v. BYU -17 | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -105 | 126 h 28 m | Show |
The Liberty Flames joined the FBS just last season. They have enjoyed success as they are 12-9 overall including 6-3 this season. The numbers look good, and I think that `look` has kept the line down in this game. The Flames 12 wins include 4 vs FCS opponents and just 2 wins vs a team .500 or better, and both of those wins came at home. Looking at the road wins the Flames have just 4 and none of those road wins came against a team that completed the season with more than 3 wins. (which includes 1-8 UMass and 0-8 N. Mexico St this year), as neither will get to 4 wins. Overall, the road has seen them win games vs teams combined to have a record of 7-36. Their 9 losses include Army, N. Texas, N.Mexico St., UMass, Virginia, Auburn, Syracuse, Rutgers, and L.Lafayette. Just pathetic teams such as Rutgers, M.Mexico St., and UMass were competitive, the other 6 resulted in losses of 21 or more points. That paints a much clearer picture of where this team really is. They now have a long trip to BYU to play a game in Provo, Utah at 4550 Ft. above sea-level. BYU has played one of the toughest schedules in the country and owns wins vs Boise St., USC, and Utah St. Liberty os going to be at a huge disadvantage here across the board. Despite the most difficult schedule, BYU has faced they are above average on both sides of the ball, while Liberty is pretty much breakeven on offense and below average on defense. This should reach the 21 point margin and beyond like most of the other Liberty games of this ilk. BYU is in their sweet spot which is playing as a home favorite from -11.5 to -19.5 where they are 32-18-3 ATS. Make the play on BYU.
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11-09-19 | Penn State v. Minnesota +7 | Top | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 122 h 25 m | Show |
Saturday November 9th, 2019 Top Side Play · [142] Minnesota Golden GophersSat Nov 9th, 2019 12:00pm EST Win/Loss UndecidedExpert Preview: MREAST NCAAF SATURDAY PLAY OF THE DAYExpert Analysis: The biggest game for the Minnesota Golden Gophers in a very long time will be at home against Penn St. This is a Big-10 Title chase with the winner posting a strong leg up. There is no doubt Penn St. has gotten to 8-0 with a much more challenging schedule. Minnesota, many will argue has not truly been tested in any way as they will here vs Penn St. A lot of times bettors make the mistake that because they have not played anyone as significant as the opponent they are about to face means they can`t play against them. That is quite often proven untrue. The rise of this Minnesota team began late last season when they finished 3-1 beating Wisconsin 37-15 and Georgia Tech in their Bowl game 34-10. QB Tanner Morgan has been outstanding averaging 10.2 yards per attempt and has 3 elite targets to throw to, as well as a solid running game. The defense will get its stiffest test vs the Sean Clifford led Penn St. offense. While many have concerns about the fact that Minnesota has not faced a caliber of team that they will against Penn St. and I get that, but the Penn St. offense has been troubled by strong defenses all season. They have faced a gauntlet of opponents in their last 3 games (Iowa, Michigan, and Michigan St.) and the offense has severely sputtered. Penn St. has run 200 plays against this trio of defenses for just 4.4 yards per play, and Clifford has completed just 54.3% of his passes. Penn St. has been out-gained by those 3 opponents by 159 yards, as the yards per play has been even, opponents are getting off 10 more plays per contest. Penn St. has won all 3 and a lot of that is the 5 they have generated in the turnover battle. Minnesota does not turn the ball over much, and they must not do it here. Minnesota also fits in 3 key situations for this game which are 82-40, 73-28, and 58-24. I don`t like teams coming off games vs strong opponents (rested or not), and Penn St. is off 3 straight punishing games. think this game comes down to the wire and will go with Minnesota, and the out-right upset certainly is possible. |
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11-07-19 | UL-Lafayette -14 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 48-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
LA-Lafayette is probably better than their 6-2 record. They have lost only to Miss St., and Appalachian St. They are above average on both sides of the ball, and net out at +1.1 yard per play vs opponents. Coastal Carolina has had stat-boosting games vs UMass and Norfolk St. where they piled up close to 1200 yards in the 2 games. Otherwise, this team is left with numbers suggesting they are well below average. Louisiana is a good road team as they are 45-25 ATS in road conference games in their last 70 including 18-5 ATS if they gained 475+ yards in their previous game. Tougher schedule, much better team. Make the play on Louisiana. |
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11-04-19 | Cowboys -6.5 v. Giants | Top | 37-18 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
The Dallas Cowboys certainly have had their way vs the NY Giants. QB Dak Prescott in particular who is 69-101 for 1,053 yards 9 TDs and 0 INTs in his last 3. Giants QB Daniel Jones has had some moments but is still a work in progress with an 84.4 passer rating 10 TDs and 7 INTs on the season. Dallas come in off of their bye, and this situation fits tonight: |
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11-03-19 | Colts +1 v. Steelers | Top | 24-26 | Loss | -109 | 124 h 45 m | Show |
The Pittsburgh Steelers are simply an awful team. This is a team that lost Bell, Brown, and Ben on offense within the last year or so and despite the fact that they have forced 19 turnovers in their last 6 games, they have lost 3 of them. That turnover variance shields how bad this team is. The stats say a team that averages 2.5 or more turnovers a game is 336-419-16 ATS from game 7 on just 44.5% ATS: tA(o:turnovers) >= 2.5 and game number > 6SU:419-350-2 (1.36, 54.5%) Teaser RecordsATS:336-419-16 (-0.90, 44.5%)Two of their 3 wins are vs winless teams. The Steelers are 0-4 SU vs teams with a winning record where they have been out-gained 1605-1077 or by 132 yards per game. Those 4 opponents accumulated 274 plats to the Steelers 208 or 16.5 more plays a game. It has all been masked by unsustainable turnover variance. Jacoby Brissett has 14 TDs to just 3 INTs. This game is a statistical mismatch with a lot of hidden value. Make the play in Indianapolis.
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11-03-19 | Bears v. Eagles -4.5 | Top | 14-22 | Win | 100 | 124 h 43 m | Show |
The Bears may rue the day they let go of Robbie Gould. Cody Parker missed the game-winner in the NFC Wild Card round, and last week Eddie Pineiro missed a game-winner vs the Chargers. There have been epic kicking failures since the departure of Gould. The kicking game aside, the Bears won 12 games last season. The difference was they averaged 25.6ppg compared to 18.3ppg this season, and have topped the 300-yard mark in total offense 1 time. Yes, the Bear's defense is still top shelf, but they are spending a lot of time on the field which will catch up to them. We may see the impacts of that already. The defense has defended 10 more plays a game than the offense has run over the last 3 games and the Bears are allowing 25.7ppg over the stretch. Philadelphia has been beset with injuries but continues to get healthier and has topped the 30 point mark 4 times. The Eagles have turned the ball over 12 times in 4 losses and just 2 times in 4 wins. When they take care of the ball the offense does plenty of damage averaging 32ppg in the 4 wins and 18.5ppf in the 4 losses. The years have not played a true road game since September 23rd. The Bears over the years have struggled vs a good offense (24ppg or more) having gone 17-33 ATS against them. (8-21 ATS on the road). The defense is wearing down, and the offense is just awful. make the play on Philadelphia.
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11-03-19 | Titans v. Panthers -3.5 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 124 h 42 m | Show |
The Tennessee Titans have salvaged their season after a 2-4 start. The Titans have won 2 straight games, and appear to have at least for the moment given up on Marcus Mariota. he has been replaced by Ryan Tannehill. I'm not so sure he has remedied the sluggish offense despite 27 points vs Tampa Bay last week. the Bucs committed 4 costly turnovers and out-gained the Titans 399-246. There is a lot of hidden value in the boxscore of this game. A team forcing 4 turnovers in NFL history should win the game by 10.4ppg. (15ppg as a home favorite). Carolina saw their 4 game winning streak go up in flames vs SF in an ugly 51-13 loss. That is a throwaway game for the Panthers, and collectively they have to be seething inside. Riverboat Ron Rivera certainly has gotten his team to respond off a road loss as he is 22-8 ATS following one. Expect an answer from the Panthers this week. Make the play on Carolina.
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11-02-19 | Utah -3 v. Washington | Top | 33-28 | Win | 100 | 126 h 57 m | Show |
The Pac-12 tends to get lost in the shuffle for 2 reasons. They have typically not had the strength of the SEC, B12, or B-10 in recent years. They also play on the West Coast so the coverage on a national scale is less than the rest of the P5 Conferences. Lurking in the weeds, and under-valued is a potent Utah team. The Utes passing game is elite, and has the running game to complement it. The defense is as good as any in football. The composite says the Utes out-gain opponents 452-231 on the season. The scary part is they are getting better every game. Utah has out-scored opponents 108-10 in their last 3 games. The defense has allowed 436 total yards on 158 plays or just 2.76 yards per play. Washington is off a very physical game vs Oregon a 35-31 loss. The Huskies suffered some casualties in that game which include: RB McGrew 51-330RB Newton 64-326WR McCutcher 11-98WR Fuller 40-598 All these players are questionable vs Utah. They may all play but are dinged up at the best. Some may be out. Regardless Utah has the edge on both sides of the ball. Washington lost just 1 game at home last 2 years, bit already 2 this year. I see this as a 7-10 point Utah win. Make the play on Utah.
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11-01-19 | Navy v. Connecticut UNDER 54 | Top | 56-10 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
This game is part of my mega totals situation. make the play on the under. |
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10-31-19 | Georgia Southern v. Appalachian State UNDER 44.5 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
This game fits the mega total system. Make the play on the under. (GASO/APPALACHIAN ST.) |
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10-27-19 | Seahawks -3 v. Falcons | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 123 h 45 m | Show | |
The Atlanta Falcons have just never gotten over their Super Bowl meltdown. Looking at these weapons on this team on the offensive side of the ball is scary, but the results have been poor. looking at the defense spells out the problems this team is having. The Falcons have allowed 41.3ppg in their last 3 games, and on the season has sacked the QB just 5 times. That is historically bad as the last time a team entered game 8 with 5 sacks or less was in 2009. This is a QB driven league and if there is no pressure, the opposing offense is going to go off. Atlanta is allowing a league-worst 54.9% on 3rd down conversions. How important is pressure? There are currently 4 teams in the NFL with fewer than 10 total sacks (Atlanta, Miami, Cincinnati, and the NY Jets). Those teams are 2-24 SU and 8-18 ATS. Atlanta is allowing opposing QBs to average a 115.82 passer rating, which is Hall of Fame level. Seattle has a great passing attack and is 163-105 ATS in their last 268 games when sacked 2 or fewer times. The Seahawks since the beginning of the 2012 season are deadly off a loss at 24-10-2 ATS (6-0 ATS lately). That goes to 19-5-2 ATS if the opponent is .140 to less than unbeaten. No look-ahead here with the Bucs on deck. Make the play on Seattle. |
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10-27-19 | Broncos v. Colts -5 | Top | 13-15 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 32 m | Show |
The Denver Broncos are 2-5 on the season and have now dealt Emmanuel Sanders. Sanders was the #1 WR for an offense that is already brutally bad. That means more attention for Courtland Sutton, and the weak Denver offense just took a step back. The message to the team is we are throwing the towel in on 2019, and sticking draft picks which seems to be the new NFL model for rebuilding. Moreover, the offensive line is injured and Flacco is under pressure on almost every snap. The Colts have gotten a lot more than expected out of QB Jacoby Brissett. Brissett has a 101 passer rating, with 14 TDs and just 3 INTs as he has done a great job finishing the drives. The diminished Bronco passing game is going to put more pressure on an average running game. The Broncos have scored 16 or fewer points in 5 of 7 games, and just 22 total points the last 2. Von Miller has just 2.5 sacks and he may be showing signs of slowing down. Indy os 4-2 and after this game, they have Pittsburgh, Miami, and Jacksonville and if things go their way they could be 8-2 heading for Houston a week before Thanksgiving. Denver is likely to make a lackluster effort here, as management has sent the signal that this season is a bust. make the play on Indianapolis. |
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10-27-19 | Cardinals v. Saints -10 | Top | 9-31 | Win | 100 | 51 h 1 m | Show |
The word out of New Orleans right from the man himself is Drew Brees will start Sunday against the Arizona Cardinals. The Saints have a bye next week so Brees has to be pretty ready to go because he would have 2 additional weeks to heal if he were to sit. The Saints are 6-1 on the season and regardless of the injuries on offense they trail just New England having scored 30+ points 4 times already this season. Arizona comes in looking like a team that has found something and beginning to gel behind rookie QB Kyler Murray. It is exactly where the value comes in here. Perception does not equal reality. The Cards are on a 3 game winning streak but the 3 opponents they faced have exactly half the total wins of the New Orleans Saints as they are a combined 3-18. The last 2 games prior to that were vs very good teams in Seattle and Carolina and the Cards lost those 2 by a combined score of 65-30. I mentioned the Saints have a bye coming next week. Coaches often incentivize a team when playing as a significant favorite before their bye, to ensure a full effort. That can ve seen here: n:week=week + 2 and H and -13.5
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10-26-19 | Arizona State -3.5 v. UCLA | Top | 32-42 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 12 m | Show |
These teams are coming in with completely opposite results from a week ago. UCLA was stomping Stanford while Arizona was crushed 21-3 vs Utah. I think these results have pushed some value toward Arizona St. The Bruins have won 2 games all season. Last week they faced a 3rd team QB vs Stanford and it showed. Their other good showing defensively on the season was a 20-17 loss to Arizona who was without Khalil Tate. remember against Oklahoma, Washington St., and Oregon St. the Bruins gave up 53.3ppg. This team is yielding 9 yards per pass attempt on the season. That is bad news bs Arizona St. who is averaging 8.4 and is well above average, and that will be the biggest mismatch on the field in this game. UCLA's lone other wins outside of Stanford and their 3rd team QB last week was to Washington St. They won by 4 points, despite allowing 720 yards! The reason they won is Washington St. turned the ball over 6 times. Arizona St. has a very strong defense, and the mediocre UCLA offense is not going to be able to move the ball here. Make the play on Arizona St. |
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10-26-19 | Oklahoma State v. Iowa State -10.5 | Top | 34-27 | Loss | -108 | 121 h 22 m | Show |
Matt Campbell did a great job at Toledo going 35-15 and Iowa St. decided he was their guy. They were so right. Campbell has turned around an Iowa St. program that win more than 7 games just 1 time in 37 years and finished with a winning record just 7 times in 37 years. His Cyclones have gone 8-5 each of the last 2 years (1st time in half a century) and at 5-2 this year on their way to bigger and better things. Iowa St. has 2 losses. One on a last-second FG vs Baylor who is 7-0, and another by 1 point to Iowa. QB Brock Purdy is going to leave Iowa St. as the most successful QB in their history. (he is just a sophomore). He is completing 70% of his passes for 14 TDs to just 4 INTs. RB Breece Hall has been improving steadily (63-399 6.3). WR Tarique Milton is stretching the field at 22.2 yards a catch. Hall and Milton have assumed the roles successfully from Montgomery and Butler a year ago. Oklahoma St. runs the ball with Heisman hopeful Chuba Hubbard. Hubbard has gained 1,265 yards at 6.5 yards per attempt. He won't find a lot of room running on an Iowa St. defense that has allowed 3.3 to a schedule of teams averaging 4.3. Hubbard was limited at Texas to 3.3ypc. The Oklahoma passing game has generated 8.1 yards per attempt which on its own seems impressive but that has been to a schedule of teams allowing 8.2. The Iowa St. pass defense allows just 5.8 to teams that generate 6.8. Oklahoma St. has turned the ball over 16 times in their last 6 games, and a lot of that is QB Spencer Sanders who has thrown 9 INTs already on the season. This Iowa St. team grades out as a top 10-12 team from the line of scrimmage with a powerful offense that generates 9.5 tards per attempt (even better at home), and is elite offensively, and well above average defensively. This is a new era in Iowa St. football and the Cyclones are rolling in off 3 straight wins and covers. This is a 16-17 point game to me. Make the play on Iowa St.
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10-26-19 | Penn State v. Michigan State +6.5 | Top | 28-7 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 45 m | Show |
The Penn St. Nittany Lions have their eyes on a National Championship. They have opened the season at 7-0 and will take on Michigan St. Penn St. has dominated opponents this season as they have out-gained them 439-282. That is the big picture. There is another hidden picture that says this team may be over-rated by their 7-0 record and getting a lot of TV coverage. Penn St.'s 3 toughest games came vs Pitt, Iowa, and Michigan. All 3 have a strong defense just like Michigan St. Penn St. was out-gained by these 3 opponents by 1169-966 or on a per-game basis 390-322. While the season shows they out-gain opponents by 157 yards per game, the better defensive teams have out-gained then by 68 yards per game. Michigan St. was pulverized by Ohio St. and Wisconsin 72-10, but both those teams are better, and both were on the road. This one is with 2 weeks to prepare and no game next week either. A bye sandwich for Sparty. Those 3 opponents from above also ran on average 13 more plays a game because the Penn St. offense could not sustain drives. Penn St. is odd 2 straight punishing games while this is the only game for Michigan St. over a 27 day period. They will be fresh, focused, and home. Then this on Michigan St.: Home dog of +6 or more 12-8 SU to avg line of +10.7 on average won by +2.7 ATS same situation 16-4. I predict an upset. Make the play on Michigan St. Make the play on Michigan St. |
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10-26-19 | Texas v. TCU +2 | Top | 27-37 | Win | 100 | 49 h 40 m | Show |
This has become a huge rivalry game as Texas heads to play TCU. Texas comes in at 5-2 on the season, and for a team with National Title aspirations coming in, they have bot quite lived up to the billing. This team returned just 3 starters on defense and is in the bottom 10 in yards allowed per play, hardly the hallmark of a National Championship contender. The offense has had to bail them out of trouble all season, and last week allowed 48 points to Kansas. They might not be able to do the same vs TCU. The Frogs signature under Gary Paterson has been defense and his team allows just 281 yards a game and just 260 at home at 4.1 yards per play. TCU is out-gaining opponents by 160 yards per game, and Texas just 11. Texas has allowed 30 or more points to all but Rice and LA Tech (37.6ppg to the 5 P5 teams they have faced). TCU prefers to run the ball and will certainly do that here to keep the Texas offensive possessions limited. The Horn's have allowed 225+ rushing yards to 3 of their last 4 opponents. They are off 2 physical games, and now face a very physical defense and with injuries piling up, trouble looms. make the play on TCU. |
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10-26-19 | Ohio v. Ball State -2.5 | Top | 34-21 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 41 m | Show |
I have a great deal of respect for Ohio U. Coach Frank Solich. He was fired at Nebraska because he was only 58-19 there. he has been at Ohio U. since 2005 and is a respectable 109-79 (72-43 in conference games). His teams have been to Bowls in 9 of the last 10 seasons. This, however, is not a very good team. The Bobcats are 3-4 and allowing almost 31ppg. his team is 1-6 ATS. His teams have been 40 games over .500 at home but under .500 on the road. The offense is above average but not by enough to offset a horrific defense and opponents have out-gained his club by 53 yards per game. Ball St. is +60 in tards vs opponents and has a strong pass defense which is where the Ohio strength is and they will be limited here. Cards ball-hawking defense has forced 19 TO's this season with at least 2 coming in each game. The Cards are unbeaten in the MAC and have the fround game rolling (805 yards in the last 3 games), and has the personnel to close out a game. make the play on Ball St.
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10-21-19 | Patriots v. Jets UNDER 44 | Top | 33-0 | Win | 100 | 101 h 52 m | Show |
NFL0101: total>42 and total3 and HSU:140-138-0 (1.20, 50.4%) Teaser RecordsATS:130-141-7 (-0.16, 48.0%) avg line: -1.4+6: 189-85-4 (69.0%) -6: 81-195-2 (29.3%) +10: 218-55-5 (79.9%) -10: 55-215-8 (20.4%) O/U:111-163-4 (-2.20, 40.5%)
avg total: 45.0 Make the play on the under |
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10-20-19 | Ravens +3.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 30-16 | Win | 100 | 73 h 15 m | Show |
The Seattle Seahawks are 5-1 on the season and have had a bunch of games go down the wire. Seattle owns a pair of wins by a single point, another by 2 points, and another by 4 points. They have been separated by 8 points in games where they went 4-0. despite a 6-2 turnover advantage in their last 2 games, both wins vs the Rams and Browns, they won them by a combined 5 points and have also had a 1 point winning verdict against Cincinnati even though they also had a 2 turnover edge. Needless to say, the Seahawks have been living on the edge of trouble all season. What would this line be of the were 3-3? 2-4? each of those records is quite plausible. Russell Wilson is having an MVP season and still, the Seahawks are eking by. Seattle's poor run defense is just what the Ravens ordered as they run for over 200 yards a contest at 5.5 yards per attempt. This will help limit the damage Wilson can do as the Ravens should own the clock in this game. Seattle is living on the reputation of the 12th man at home when they went through a 5-year stretch posting a 39-6 SU record at home, but have lost 6 in 2+ years here since. The margin of victory has gone from 12.3pph to 3pph. The 12th man os no longer a factor, but bettors fear to play against Seattle here, the numbers suggest otherwise. Make the play on Baltimore. |
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10-20-19 | Saints +3.5 v. Bears | Top | 36-25 | Win | 100 | 73 h 13 m | Show |
The Chicago Bears and the New Orleans Saints each have plenty of injury issues to deal with and so far the Saints have coped with them better. The Saints season seemed to be in jeopardy when Frew Brees went down but Teddy Bridgewater is 4-0 in his 4 starts and 4-0 ATS as well. The Saints offense is a tick above average, and the defense has been omproving allowing 13.3ppg in their last 3. The Bears have the best defense in the league, but arguably the worst offense to go with it. The Bears have failed to gain 300 total yards in any of their 5 games, so the defense has a lot of pressure on it. i get a sense that Chicago is playing not to lose and relying on the defense way too much, while the Saints are playing to win, and just have more upside overall, and as a dog they have value. A small sample size because of the rarety shows a team in game 6 that has not reached 300 total yards in offense and playing a better than .600 team or better is 1-6 SU and 1-5-1 ATS. Make the play on New Orleans.
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10-20-19 | Cardinals v. Giants UNDER 50.5 | Top | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 70 h 41 m | Show |
This game fits a situation that is 44-5 to the under: season>=2012 and HD and line>8 and total>=39 and total
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10-20-19 | 49ers v. Redskins UNDER 41.5 | Top | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 70 h 38 m | Show |
NFL0101: total>42 and total3 and HSU:140-138-0 (1.20, 50.4%) Teaser RecordsATS:130-141-7 (-0.16, 48.0%) avg line: -1.4+6: 189-85-4 (69.0%) -6: 81-195-2 (29.3%) +10: 218-55-5 (79.9%) -10: 55-215-8 (20.4%) O/U:111-163-4 (-2.20, 40.5%)
avg total: 45.0 Make the play on the under |
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10-19-19 | Florida State +2 v. Wake Forest | Top | 20-22 | Push | 0 | 51 h 25 m | Show |
The Florida St. Seminoles have played a tough schedule to get to 3-3. This team despite the look is 1.2 yards a play better than the schedule of opponents they have played. They suffered 2 of their 3 losses to Boise St. and Clemson. Wake Forest lost for the 1st time this season to Louisville to fall to 5-1 on the season. That puts them in a huge letdown spot. Any team starting 5-0 or better and suffered their 1st loss of the season in their previous game by -14 points or fewer and face a team greater than .250 but less than.670 are 41-82-2 ATS. QB Jamie Newman left the last game with a shoulder injury, and may not play, but if he does he won't be 100%. wins>4 and losses=1 and p:L and p:margin>-15 and o:WP>25 and o:WP |
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10-19-19 | North Carolina -3.5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 41-43 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
Virginia comes into this game with the better record 4-2 as North Carolina is 3-3. Don't be fooled by the records as North Carolina has played one of the nation's most difficult schedules. They have impressive wins over SC and Miami, Fla. They also lost by 1 point vs unbeaten Clemson, and 1 point to unbeaten Appalachian St. Their 3rd loss was by 6 points to 1 loss Wake Forest. This team is vastly improved since last season. Virginia Tech has lost to BC and Duke and 3 of their 4 wins were against Furman, Old Dominion, and FCS team Rhode Island. Despite the weak schedule, the Hokies are average on both sides of the ball. The NC defense and offense are both significantly above average despite the tough schedule. Tech has the better record coming into this game, but if they played the NC schedule they would likely be 1-5, and if NC played their schedule there is a very good chance they would be 6-0. Make the play on North Carolina. |
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10-19-19 | NC State -3 v. Boston College | Top | 24-45 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 59 m | Show |
The Boston College Eagles suffered a huge setback last week when starting QB Anthony Brown went down with a leg injury. He will be lost for the season. His replacement Dennis Grosel went 9-24 vs Louisville last week at 4.6 yards an attempt. Brown was generating 8.1 and had 9 RDs and just 2 INTs. The Eagles passing attack is not only going to take a hit, but the AJ Dillon led running game as well. The Wolfpack is going to load the box to dare NC to throw into their well-above-average secondary. This could lead to many 3 and outs and turnovers. The BC defense is horrible and while NC State is no better than average on offense, they should be able to move the ball against BC, as they are probably going to be on the field a lot more than usual further exposing them. Don't think the odds-makers have adjusted enough for Brown's injury. Make the play on NC State. |
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10-18-19 | Pittsburgh -3.5 v. Syracuse | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
The Syracuse Orange entered this season with high expectations off their first 10+ win season since 2001. They were a ranked preseason team with high expectations. That has all unraveled as the team is average and that is being generous. They can't run the ball at all, and against their 3 P5 opponents averaged a woeful 1.1 yar per carry. making matters worse is a poor pass blocking defensive line that has allowed 26 sacks on the season. They have been out-gained by well over 100 yards per game vs FBS opponents. The trouble comes from trying to slow down the sack masters from Pitt that rank #2 in the country in sacks with 27. Pitt has an elite defense allowing 2.9 rushing yards per attempt and just 5.8 yards per pass attempt to a schedule of teams averaging 7.3. The Syracuse offense does not run the ball and the Pitt pass rush and strong secondary is going to crush the Cuse aerial attack. Pitt in this one.
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10-17-19 | Chiefs -3 v. Broncos | Top | 30-6 | Win | 100 | 55 h 44 m | Show |
About now everyone is wondering what is wrong with the Chiefs? They have managed just 37 total points in their last 2 games. Despite playing in front of a raucous home crowd this team seems to thrive on the road behind Pat Mahomes. Since Mahomes took over the Chiefs have averaged just 30.1ppg at home and 37.1ppg on the road, where they have also generated an average of 457 yards per game. Denver started 0-4 but has won 2 straight, both against struggling teams. I expect the Chiefs to come out with a lot of energy for this game. The Chiefs have run just 99 plays over their last 2 games, to the opponents 157. That is just 49.5 plays per contest compared to 64 in their first 4 games, which ha more to do with the losses than anything else. The Denver defense forced 0 turnovers in its first 4 games and 6 in the last 2. Despite 6 opponent turnovers the Denver offense managed just 36 points in the 2 games and continues to be problematic. Make the play on Kansas City.
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10-14-19 | Lions v. Packers -3 | Top | 22-23 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
Top Side Play · [276] Green Bay Packers |
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10-13-19 | Falcons -2.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 33-34 | Loss | -109 | 50 h 59 m | Show |
Expert Analysis: The Atlanta Falcons are 1-4 despite out-gaining their opponents through 5 games. Arizona out-gained an opponent for the first time all season last week. Arizona QB Kyler Murray has had some moments, but overall he has not played very well with a QB rating of just 80. There were 2 keys I have been watching that says a lot. Atlanta WR Julio Jones has been upgraded to probable while Arizona RB David Johnson has been downgraded to questionable. The QB battle should go to Matt Ryan, as the Cardinal secondary is very weak. I also think the very poor Arizona offense without Johnson will be further handicapped. Atlanta is 9-0 ATS in its last 9 games on the road following a road blowout loss of 21 or more points. I was on Atlanta last week and lost. I may have been a week too early. Make the play on Atlanta.
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10-13-19 | Seahawks -1 v. Browns | Top | 32-28 | Win | 100 | 122 h 34 m | Show |
The Cleveland Browns were perceived as a team ready to break out in 2019. They have a young promising and talented QB in Baker Mayfield, and a pair of WR among the best in the league in OBJ and Landry, and a defense considered on the rise. Those expectations have really fallen short as the Browns are facing teams that are coming after Mayfield forcing him into way too many mistakes. Mayfield is suffering from a severe loss of confidence as he has just 4 TDs and 8 UNRs on the season and a QB rating of a woeful 68.5. The Browns are 2-3 with the 3 losses by a combined 65 points, and are finding themselves out of too many games. Moreover, the offense has scored 13 or fewer points in 3 of 5 contests. The Achilles heel of the defense is stopping the run as teams are just playing power football against them as the Browns run stop unit has allowed 448 yards on the ground over the last 2 games. needing to put another player in the nox vs Seattle QB Russell Wilson is trouble, as Wilson is having an MVP season thus far completing 73% of his passes at 9 yards per attempt, and 12 TDs to 0 INTs. Pete Carroll loved yo pound the rock, and that will set yp play action and success against a Browns struggling defense. make the play on Seattle. |
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10-13-19 | Saints v. Jaguars -1 | Top | 13-6 | Loss | -115 | 51 h 43 m | Show |
Expert Analysis: The Jacksonville Jaguars thought that Nick Goles would stabilize the QB situation, but he was injured early on. That presented an opportunity for Gardner Minshew and he sure has taken advantage of that. Minshew has a 105.6 QB rating to fo along with 9 TDs and just 1 INT. The Jacksonville offense is a lot better than the points they have scored. They are a full yard better per play than the average of the defenses they have gone against. Their 2-3 record sets up well in public opinion vs the 4-1 Saints. The defense has struggled but the return of elite CB Jogn Ramsey comes just in time to blanket Michael Thomas. The Saints have not allowed a 100-yard rusher in 31 straight games, but Minshew`s stellar play at QB has advanced the rushing game over the last 2 weeks and Leonard Fournette may end that streak. Jacksonville`s 3 losses saw them lose the turnover battle 0-6, and that has more to do with bad luck, than being a bad team. Teddy Bridgewater is off a big game, but his overall numbers do not impress me when you dig down into his reality. He will face a lot of pressure in this game. The public loves the Saints here, and that enhances the fact that they are in for a disappointment. Make the play on Jacksonville. |
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10-13-19 | Bengals v. Ravens UNDER 48 | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 48 h 19 m | Show |
This game fits a totals situation that is 188-110 ATS to the under. Make the play on the under. |
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10-13-19 | Seahawks v. Browns UNDER 46.5 | Top | 32-28 | Loss | -105 | 48 h 19 m | Show |
This game fits a totals situation that is 163-110 ATS to the under. Make the play on the under. |
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10-12-19 | Penn State -4 v. Iowa | Top | 17-12 | Win | 100 | 105 h 1 m | Show |
Saturday October 12th, 2019 Top Side Play · [203] Penn State Nittany LionsSat Oct 12th, 2019 7:30pm EDT Win/Loss UndecidedExpert Preview: MREAST NCAAF SATURDAY PLAY OF THE DAYExpert Analysis: Kinnick Stadium will host a hige game in the Big 10 as 5-0 Penn St. will face 4-1 Iowa. Penn St. found the right guy when they hired James Franklin away from Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt won 24 games in his 3 years there, and no Vanderbilt team from 1980 on ever won more than 16 games over a 3 consecutive year period. He has reignited the Penn St. program with a 36-9 SU record in the last 3 years. He will bring with him the nation`s 5th highest-scoring offense, along with the second-best scoring defense. he has also changed the negative narrative that Penn St. can`t beat a great defense. The Nittany Lions were 4-25 ATS vs a team allowing 12pph or less, but 4-0 ATS under Franklin winning by a combined score of 156-64. Penn St. had a huge question mark, with the graduation of QB Trace McSorley. Everything else seemed to be in place. Enter QB Sean Clifford and 1,443 yards with 12 TDs and just 2 INTs. he is actually playing at a higher level than McSorley, and he is running the ball better as well. When you dig down inside the numbers here the story is told. Iowa os average defensively against the run allowing 4.4 yards per carry to a schedule of teams that average 4.4. Penn St. averages 5.2 vs teams that allow 4.0. Significant edge to the Lions. Overall the Iowa offense averages 5.8 yards a play vs opponents allowing 5.6. Very average, while Penn St. averages 7.2 vs teams allowing 5.5. Iowa will hut a brick wall trying to run as Penn St. is allowing 1.5 yards per carry, and just 4.8 yards per play overall. Penn St. from the line of scrimmage is 3.1 yards per play better than their opponent, while Iowa is 0.9. That is a significant edge for a game with such a small line. Road favorites from 3.5-10 points off 3 or more unders and allow 14ppg or less are 24-6 ATS covering by 8ppg. Make the play on Penn St. |
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10-12-19 | Charlotte +5.5 v. Florida International | Top | 23-48 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 58 m | Show |
Top Side Play · [193] Charlotte 49ers |
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10-12-19 | San Jose State +3 v. Nevada | Top | 38-41 | Push | 0 | 31 h 42 m | Show |
Expert Analysis: The San Jose St. Spartans head to Nevada to take on the Wolfpack. There are some similarities between these teams. Both enter the game at 3-2, and each has knocked off a P5 team, with Nevada taking down Purdue 34-31 and San Jose St. taking down Arkansas 31-24. The Spartan`s win was eyeopening as they were a 3 TD underdog and went for over 500 yards for the game. Coach Brent Brennan`s team is a ball-hawking defense that has turned the opponent over 15 times in 5 games. San Jose St. was 3-22 SU over its last 2 seasons but signs that Brennan has this team on an up-tick were seen late last season when the Spartans closed the season 4-1-1 ATS and they are 4-1 ATS this season and are clearly a team under the radar. Senior QB Josh Love has played all 4 years and started the last 3 and has become very good. He has reached career highs with 62% completions, and 7.8 yards per attempt. He has thrown just 1 INT in 181 attempts on the season. Nevada has one of the worst pass defenses in the country allowing 8.6 yards per attempt and I expect Love to have a huge game. The Nevada offense is also very weak averaging just 4.6 yards per play on the season. Nevada is making a QB change as Malik Henry a JUCO transfer will be under center as they try to infuse a sluggish offense. I like the matchup here with Love vs Henry at QB as well as the defensive edge by the Spartans. Make the play on San Jose St. |
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10-10-19 | Giants v. Patriots -17 | Top | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
The Thursday Night Football game between the NY Giants and NE Patriots is a complete mismatch. The game will be played in rainy and windy conditions. The New England offense will not be hampered, as Tom Brady is a great bad-weather QB, and seldom does he throw downfield anymore. The Giants offense will be missing Barkley, Sheppard, and Engram. Those 3 players have accounted for 65% of the Giants offense thus far. The Pats have 11 INTs on the season and they will be stacking the box and force Daniel Jones into the air, as the Pats have yet to allow a passing TD this season. Moreover, the Giants are going t have to throw the ball falling behind, and the conditions are not favorable for Jones to do so, especially missing so many offensive weapons. Coach Belichick thrives as the season moves forward as his teams are 140-85 ATS after the first month of the season, including 52-25 ATS in October games. Thursday home favorites of -11 or more points are 12-1-1 ATS providing their opponent is not winless or unbeaten. The Pat's and Belichick destroy rookie or 2nd-year QBs as they have won 18 straight against them. Look for the Pats to cruise to another blowout win. Pats also are 13-2 ATS from -15 to -19. Make the play on New England. |
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10-07-19 | Browns v. 49ers -4 | Top | 3-31 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
The Cleveland Browns and the San Francisco 49ers are a pair of teams on the rise. This will be a good test for each team. I'm not as impressed with Baker Mayfield as most as he is wildly inconsistent and overall his numbers would rank him 28th in the league as a QB. San Francisco behind the play-action strong offense of Coach Shannahan and QB Jimmy Garappolo has been strong. Garappolo has the 2nd most play-action pass attempts in the league where he completes 85.7% of his passes at 15.4 yards per attempt. The Niners use olay action on 36% of all dropbacks at 9.9 yards per pass. There are many favorables in this game for the Niners. A MNF favorite off a win and 14 fays rest is 12-0-1 ATS. NFL0071: p:W and MNF and rest=14 and F and date>20031006SU:13-0-0 (17.69, 100.0%) Teaser RecordsATS:12-0-1 (11.73, 100.0%) avg line: -6.0Also MNF home teams greater than .800 vs a team .500 or better with a line from -2.5 to -9 and a total greater than 37 are 33-5-3 ATS day = Monday and H and WP > 80 and o:WP >= 50 and line = -9 and total > 37SU:38-3-0 (12.02, 92.7%) Teaser RecordsATS:33-5-3 (6.65, 86.8%) avg line: -5.4The Niners have also been king of MNF: team = Fortyniners and day = Monday and line > -11SU:33-13-0 (10.04, 71.7%) Teaser RecordsATS:36-9-1 (7.78, 80.0%)That is 29-4 ATS from week 3 through week 16. Make the play on San Francisco. |
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10-06-19 | Colts v. Chiefs UNDER 56 | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 54 h 58 m | Show |
Kansas City is one of the loudest places to play in the entire NFL. It helps elevate the Chiefs below-average defense, and at the same time, it tends to lower the offensive output, but not in the way you would think. here is what I mean. Since taking over at QB at the beginning of last season Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs have averaged 32.2ppg at home, but 37.1 on the road. The biggest reason is they have led on average by 12ppg at home. This tends to lead to a shorter game, with the big plays kept off the field. The Chiefs defense allows 31.2ppg on the road but just 20.2ppg at home. That is 12 points different. Overall the Chiefs road games average 68.3ppg and home games just 52.4ppg. A 16ppg differential. The reason is similar, they average leading at the half on the road by an average of just 2.6ppg, almost a full 10 points less than at home. This is what has caused a hidden value on the total in this contest. Moreover, 8 of the Chiefs 11 home games have seen 57 or fewer points scored between both teams. Make the play on the under. |
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10-06-19 | Packers v. Cowboys -3 | Top | 34-24 | Loss | -130 | 73 h 27 m | Show |
Expert Analysis: The Green Bay Packers and the Dallas Cowboys each lost for the 1st time last week. That should man both these teams come in hungry for a win. While not many want to suggest that Aaron Rodgers is in decline, the numbers say so. Rodgers is just 13-13-1 SU in his last 27 starts, many still see him as an ultra-elite QB. The numbers over the last 3 years suggest he has become ordinary. That has led to Green Bay compiling an 0-8 SU record on the road vs a team .444 or better. 91-7 ATS with the average being a 10 point loss). he has been shaky on the road where he is 40-44 SU in his career (much worse lately). His dome record is 12-14, and trailing with 4 minutes or less left in the game he has 9 TDs and 10 INTs. The Packers are going to be at a huge disadvantage when Dallas runs. The Pack has allowed 523 yards on the ground on 98 carries the last 3 weeks, and Dallas runs the ball well, especially against a team that can`t stop it. Dallas os 10-0 SU in their last 10 home games if they run the ball 24 times. (7-1-2 ATS). The Packers have no ground game at all and have not had a run over 15 yards this season. The Packer offense is hurting, as Brian Bulaga is dealing with an injured shoulder, and may not play and Devante Adams, the only real receiving threat Green Bay possesses, may be out with a toe injury. Dallas has held 3 of 4 teams to less than 300 yards. Dallas is 10-1 SU at home since the start of last season, while the Pack is 2-9 SU on the road in its last 11, with one of the wins in overtime vs the hapless Jets. Make the play on Dallas. |
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10-06-19 | Broncos v. Chargers UNDER 44.5 | Top | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 72 h 35 m | Show |
This game is backed by one of just a few systems that I blindly bet because it has been that good. The situation is 126-53-2 ATS and the play is in the UNDER. |
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10-06-19 | Bears -5 v. Raiders | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 4 m | Show |
Expert Analysis: The Chicago Bears and the Oakland Raiders will meet in London. They will do so without QB Mitchell Trubisky who has been declared out with a shoulder injury. Chase Daniel will get the call, and he may actually be an upgrade as Trybisky has struggled. The Bears don`t score much, but they don`t have to as their defense is rock solid allowing 11.3ppg and none of their first 4 opponents have scored more than 15. Oakland last played at home on September 15 and won`t play home again until November 3. So after 2 straight weeks playing in the Central and Eastern time-zones, they will play in England. This is a tough scheduling spot for the Raiders. The Bears have allowed just 61.5 rushing yards a game on the season. Khalil Mack may have a big say on defense this week vs his former team. Think Chicago will pull oit a comfortable 10 point win here. Make the play on Chicago. |
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10-06-19 | Falcons +4.5 v. Texans | Top | 32-53 | Loss | -111 | 47 h 22 m | Show |
It does not seem long ago when the Atlanta Falcons were up 28-3 vs New England in the Super Bowl and lost. It seems the team has never recovered from that. their season has started 1-3 and it is on the line in Houston on Sunday. They know 1-4 would pretty much end any chances of recovering. The good news is all is not as bad as it seems. Atlanta is above average from the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Turnovers have played a role, while Houston has forced a turnover in 17 straight games, and has already forced 8 fumbles this season. Turnovers are mostly random, and it actually better looking at high turnover teams in the NFL, as they are usually better than they look. Houston is not issue free. They are not defending well, and Watson is under siege almost every snap. The Texans allowed 62 sacks a year ago and 18 already this season. Houston has played 4 games and the total margin in all 4 games totals 16. Every game is close, so 5 points with a desperate team trying to save their season is a good take. There is one sports betting adage that says, "The team in need, is the team indeed." It truly applies here. Make the play on Atlanta. |
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10-05-19 | Arkansas State -6.5 v. Georgia State | Top | 38-52 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
Georgia St. opened the season with a huge upset at Tennessee as a 26 point underdog. That big win has been tainted by the fact that Tennessee is not a good team. That was on full display as they have since gone to W. Michigan and lost by almost 50 points and barely escaped FCS opponent Furman at home by 6. What interests me here is Arkansas St. QB Logan Bonner was injured and last week former Alabama recruit and QB Layne Hatcher was better than Bonner last week putting up freat numbers vs Troy in an upset win where the Red Wolves scored 50. The Georgia St. pass defense is really poor so another big game by Hatcher is in the cards. The Arkansas St. defense is 0.4 yards better than the offenses of their schedule of opponents, and I don't see Georgia St. being able to keep up. Arkansas St. has by far played the tougher schedule, and should pile up the points here. Make the play on Arkansas St. |
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10-05-19 | Purdue v. Penn State -28 | Top | 7-35 | Push | 0 | 46 h 36 m | Show |
The Purdue Boilermakers have had trouble keeping up in the rugged Big-10 and heading to a revitalized Penn St. program is not what the doctor ordered. Penn St. came into this season wondering how they would do with QB Sean Clifford as he had just 7 pass attempts his entire career. That question has been answered as Clifford is completing 66% of his passes at an ultra-elite 11.1 yards per attempt with 9 TDs and just 1 INT. He also is running at 5.2 yards per carry. The Nittany Lions rushing attack has seen 7 different players score a rushing TD. Purdue appeared set on offense behind QB Elijah Sindelar at 64.3% and 8.7 pards per attempt, but he is out with a collarbone injury and Jack Plummer has fared poorly at 51.4% at 6.1 yards per attempt and 3 TDs and 4 INTs. Making matters worse is the loss of the electric Rondale Moore at WR with a leg injury. This leaves the Purdue offense at extreme peril vs a very strong Penn St. defense. Home favorites off a 35+ point win vs an opponent that allowed more than 28 points last game, in which both teams scored more than a combined 57 points are 189-122-9 ATS 60.8%. When the line is in this range at -23.5 to -30.5 that goes to 44-22-7 ATS. |
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10-05-19 | Tulane -2.5 v. Army | Top | 42-33 | Win | 100 | 45 h 8 m | Show |
The Army program has risen after many years of futility, so at 3-1 on the season ot looks like they are strong again. That is not the case when you dig down into the numbers. Army (not including the Morgan St. game is averaging just 4.6 yards per carry which is very low for them. The defense is also down a notch and they have not faced a schedule of teams that run the ball nearly as well as Tulane. Willie Fritz has Tulane on a major upward trajectory, but it isn't seen by many as they have been bad for quite a few years now. The one thing that the triple-option does is make an opponent have to prepare for something they rarely if ever see. That is not the case here. Tulane has seen and defended the option 6 times since 2015 and has defended it extremely well. Tulane has defended 325 rushing plays and allowed just 1303 yards or 4 yards per carry. Those were poor Tulabe teams that combined to go 19-29 SU since 2015. Tulane has been considerably above average defending the run this season while generating 6 yards per attempt with their own running game. I think there will be a lot of running in this game as both teams put it on the ground for a combined average of 105 times per contest. Tulane has the edge in what will be a field position game and also has a much better passing game for more balance. Make the play in Tulane. |
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10-04-19 | Central Florida v. Cincinnati +4.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
If there was ever a game that has been circled on a schedule it is tonight's Cincinnati Bearcats game vs Central Florida. Last year Cincinnati went into ESPN's Game Day to play in front of a frenetic crowd, with a freshman QB in Desmond Ritter, and the moment proved too big for him. Ritter has grown up since them and is continuing his success as an experienced sophomore now. While the Bearcats were brutalized on the scoreboard 38-13 they were in the game statistically. They were out-gained by just 23 total yards and ran the ball 55 times for 252 yards. C. Florida has a very strong secondary, but have proven vulnerable to the run. Cincinnati has a strong rushing attack, and will use it to best attack the Knight's defense, and keep the clock moving to keep the explosive C. Florida offense off the field. You have to go all the way back to December of 2016 to find the last time C. Florida was held to fewer than 30 points. That streak is going to end at some point, could it be tonight? This time the freshman QB is playing for UCF, and his 2 road outings vs FAU, and Pittsburgh were shaky. He will face a raucous prime time crowd, and the best defense he has seen all season. Cincinnati allowed 42 points at Ohio St. ( a season-low by the Buckeyes), while allowing 14 or fewer in each of their other 3 games. The Bearcats have by far played the tougher schedule. The Cats opponents have completed just 50% of all passes. The Cats will bring it tonight. Make the play on Cincinnati. |
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10-03-19 | Rams v. Seahawks UNDER 49.5 | Top | 29-30 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
NFL TEAMS IN A GAME FOLLOWING A DEFENSIVE TD: Nothing can skew a box score more than a game that featured a team that scored without their offense. The next game tendency is usually impacted with a higher than normal total, as odds-makers realize most bettors don't go into great detail from the previous game. This applies significantly to division games, which are historically bias to the under. ALL NFL GAME TOTAL RESULTS BY GAME TYPE (RESULTS ARE THE PERCENTAGE UNDER THE TOTAL): NON-CONFERENCE 48.8% CONF (But not division) 50.1% DIVISION 52.1%**** It is clear division games have a much higher probability of playing under. These teams tend to know tendencies from playing each other twice a season every season. So now when the totals get skewed by a previous game that involved defensive TD things become profitable. Let's take a look: 1) Home team scored a defensive TD in its last game 2) This game is a division game These games have gone: 93-145-5 O/U or 60.1% to the UNDER p:DTD > 0 and DIV and HSU:146-97-0 (4.14, 60.1%) Teaser RecordsATS:119-118-6 (0.61, 50.2%) avg line: -3.5+6: 170-71-2 (70.5%) -6: 73-163-7 (30.9%) +10: 189-49-5 (79.4%) -10: 60-181-2 (24.9%) O/U:93-145-5 (-1.45, 39.1%) avg total: 43.0Make the play on the UNDER |
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09-29-19 | Cowboys -2.5 v. Saints | Top | 10-12 | Loss | -115 | 131 h 58 m | Show |
The New Orleans Saints took a huge hit when Drew Brees went down with a hand injury. Teddy Bridgewater has come in to replace him and has been adequate thus far, but he is going to be under seige by a Dallas pass rush that is very capable of getting consistent pressure. Bridgewater has a pedestrian vareer QB rating of 86.3 and has just 31 TDs to 23 INTs. The Saints maybe 2-1 on the season but have been outscored by their opponents. Dallas has an elite offense, with great balance. the Saints defense has allowed at least 27 points in each of their 3 games thus far and is allowing 5.1 yards per carry on the ground vs teams that average just 4.3. The secondary has been torched for 8.4 yards per attempt by teams that average just 7.4. the Saints defense has been highly suspect thus far. Dallas is generating nearly 500 yards of offense per game and will have things their way vs a poor Saints defense. The Saints have been dominant at home over the years, but have dropped their last 5 here ATS. make the play on Dallas. |
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09-29-19 | Seahawks -4.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 27-10 | Win | 100 | 126 h 24 m | Show |
The Seattle Seahawks were bearen badly last week at home, although the final score liiked respectable. It was their first September home loss in the Pete Carroll era. Arizona has decided that the #1 overall pick in the draft Kyler Murray was going to be their guy. Murray has at times looked very good but at other times very frustrated. The Cardinal offense has become very pass-heavy as Murray is throwing the ball 46 times a contest. The offense has allowed Murray to be sacked 16 times in 3 games, and if that continues, he is going to have a hard time making it through the season. That isn't the only problem. The Cards are 30th in yards allowed on defense and are allowing nearly 30ppg. Seattle QB Russell Wilson is 4-0 in Arizona with a QB rating of 105. Murray may someday be an elite QB, but he has a 79 QB rating right now and has for the most part struggled and the Arizona passing attack is way below average generating 5.3 yards per attempt to opponents surrendering 6.4. The Cards are being out-gained by 115 yards per game. The Seahawks are 55-32-2 ATS since 2005 after a loss (21-9-1 ATS off a home loss). Seattle really has stepped up after a loss, and this Arizona team is going to struggle all season. Make the play on Seattle. |
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09-29-19 | Redskins v. Giants UNDER 47 | Top | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 123 h 3 m | Show |
This game is a systems play. It plays on the UNDER when there is a division home favorite to a total of 44 or higher, if the opponent allowed less than 3 points last game: division=o:division and HF and total>43.5 and rest=6 and opo:points |
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09-29-19 | Browns v. Ravens UNDER 47 | Top | 40-25 | Loss | -120 | 123 h 2 m | Show |
This game is a systems play. It plays on the UNDER when there is a division home favorite to a total of 44 or higher, if the opponent allowed less than 3 points last game: division=o:division and HF and total>43.5 and rest=6 and opo:points |
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09-29-19 | Browns v. Ravens -7 | Top | 40-25 | Loss | -107 | 123 h 56 m | Show |
This game fits a situation that is based on a team in week 4 that is turnover free in their first 3 games: p:TO=0 and pp:TO=0 and ppp:TO=0 and op:TO + opp:TO + oppp:TO>2 SU:79-31-0 (6.42, 71.8%)Teaser Records ATS:74-32-4 (3.94, 69.8%) It also expands out to this: p:TO=0 and pp:TO=0 and ppp:TO=0 and op:TO + opp:TO + oppp:TO>2 and line-9.5 and WP44 and total>34 and season>1997 and o:WP |
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09-28-19 | Hawaii v. Nevada -1 | Top | 54-3 | Loss | -110 | 99 h 49 m | Show |
The Hawaii Warriors will head to Mackey Stadium in Reno, Nevada to take on the Nevada Wolfpack. Both of these teams are 3-1 on the season, and it is a big deal to come out of this game at 4-1 for the winner. Hawaii has struggled as a program over the last 7+ years as they are not only 32-61 SU they are 34-55-3 ATS. They are in a tough spot here in Nevada. Most don't consider Nevada as a cold-weather place but the temperature is expected to be in the 30s. That is a far cry from the beach and 80s. Hawaii likes to throw a lot (45 times a game), and the cold weather leads to a slippery hardball, and it may impact their offense. Nevada has win 7 of the last 8 here and covered 6. The Wolf Pack has covered 9 of their last 12 at home, and remember Mackey Stadium is almost a mile high, and Hawaii is not a very deep team. Make the play on Nevada. |
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09-28-19 | Wake Forest v. Boston College +7 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 92 h 33 m | Show |
Wake Forest is off to a 4-0 start on the season for just the 5th time since 1980, but the 3rd time in the last 4 years. Unfortunately, the last 2 saw them finish 7-11 after the 4-0 start. Boston College immediately became a "stay away" from team with a 20 point loss to Kansas. This isn't the Kansas everyone has beaten up lately. This is a Les Miles Kansas team and he has his fingerprints all over this team already. I think BC got caught thinking they had an easy win and found out otherwise. BC has won exactly 7 games in 5 of their last 6 years, and can't seem to get over the hump. This isn't a team that is going to finish much better than those teams, and Wake Forest is getting a bit too much respect right now, and BC after losing to Kansas got right with a 30-16 win at Rutgers last week, and the Kansas game has them very underrated right now. Make the play on Boston College. |
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09-28-19 | Northern Illinois v. Vanderbilt -6 | Top | 18-24 | Push | 0 | 87 h 11 m | Show |
The Vanderbilt Commodores have long struggled in the SEC. They just don't seem to be able to recruit at the same level as their conference foes. They are however 21-4 SU vs the MAC, Mountain West, and C-USA. (10-2 vs the MAC). Overall they are 17-8 ATS in those 25 games. They currently own a 7 game winning streak vs the MAC with 6 of those by 11 points or more. They are 0-3 to start the season but the losses have come to LSU, Georgia, and Purdue. I would expect they will be all out for a win in this one. B. Illinois is 1-2 on the season and the defense has been poor and the offense mediocre. This is going to be a tough spot for the Huskies who have not played at home since August 31, and won't until October 5. Make the play on Vanderbilt. |
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09-22-19 | Rams -2.5 v. Browns | Top | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 125 h 4 m | Show |
The LA Rams had a great season a year ago making it all the way to the Super Bowl. Unlike many previous Super Bowl losers, the next season usually starts off poorly but the Rams are 2-0 and built for the long haul. The offense was hurt last year as Todd Gurley was injured, and Cooper Kupp suffered a season-ending injury. Gurley and Brown form a great running back tandem and Kupp os doing his thing again leading the Rams receivers in catches and yards. Cleveland will come into this game at 1-1, and the win was on Monday Night vs a Jet's team down to a 3rd string QB. Cleveland took possession from their own 43 or better 5 times in the game and had an 89 yard TD pass, and still managed just 1 other TD the entire game. The offense managed just 13 points vs Tennessee while allowing 43. Things have not looked as good for Cleveland to this point vs expectations. This team has seldom gotten prime time exposure because they have been too bad. They have not been at home in a Sunday Night Football game since 2008, and just 3 times in their history and they have never won one. They have made 3 home appearances on Monday Night and last won on 2008. This team could be a bit nervous under the spotlight. Cleveland has much more talent than they have had over several years, but they have not learned how to win yet, and the Rams are a formidable opponent, that seems to be playing with a chip on their shoulder. make the play on LA.
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09-22-19 | Ravens +7 v. Chiefs | Top | 28-33 | Win | 100 | 118 h 7 m | Show |
This will be the first real test for either team. The Chiefs and Ravens both come in at 2-0, and the winner here is going to have the look of a Super Bowl team. I see a difference in this Kansas City team vs last season. Before I get into that let me be clear. This is a very explosive offense, with an elite QB. There are a few things to consider here. The Chiefs played 4 different teams that got a second look at them. All 4 of them combined to hold Kansas City to an average of -5.5ppg less than the 1st meeting, and none of the teams allowed Kansas City more points than their season average when they met a second time. The Chiefs are down 2 very heavy contributors from last year in Kareem Hunt and Tyreke Hill. Hunt was the leading rusher (181-824 7 TDs). Hill 2-151 and 1 TD. Those 8 TDs represent half od all the Chief's rushing TDs on the season. Hill was the top receiver at 87-1,478 and 12 TDs, while Hunt caught 26 for 378 and 7 TDs. That is 38% of all passing TDs. That is also 27 total TDs out of 66 or 41%. That hasn't shown up yet against poor competition, or has it? Here is a mindblowing stat. The Chiefs scored points in 58 or 64 regular season quarters. just 6 times they got blanked in a quarter. Through 2 games and 8 quarters vs marginal competition this year they have been blanked 3 times. The defense remains below average and right now Lamar Jackson has been every bit as good as Mahomes with 7 TDs and 0 INTs on the season and adding 126 rushing yards on 19 carries. Baltimore is now 8-1 in his 9 starts, and his passing has gone to the top of the elevator over last year. The Ravens have a lethal running game but now have a lethal passing attack. Road dogs that average 160+ yards a game on the ground are 57.1% ATS and when the line is less than +7 they cover 63.4% of the time: tA(RY) >= 160 and AD and line < 7SU:53-63-0 (-1.50, 45.7%) Teaser RecordsATS:71-41-4 (2.04, 63.4%)Make the play on Baltimore. |
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09-22-19 | Jets v. Patriots UNDER 44 | Top | 14-30 | Push | 0 | 118 h 37 m | Show |
This game is based on a situation that is 109-186-2 ATS to the UNDER. division=o:division and HF and total>43.5 and rest=6 and opo:points |
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09-21-19 | Kentucky v. Mississippi State UNDER 48.5 | Top | 13-28 | Win | 100 | 103 h 40 m | Show |
This is from my totals formula that kicks in starting week 4: OVERALL RECORD TO THE UNDER: 387-191-13 67% 8.06 z-score Make the play on the UNDER |
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09-21-19 | Central Michigan v. Miami-FL UNDER 52 | Top | 12-17 | Win | 100 | 103 h 39 m | Show |
This is from my totals formula that kicks in starting week 4: OVERALL RECORD TO THE UNDER: 387-191-13 67% 8.06 z-score Make the play on the UNDER |
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09-21-19 | Washington v. BYU UNDER 50.5 | Top | 45-19 | Loss | -107 | 102 h 11 m | Show |
This is from my totals formula that kicks in starting week 4: OVERALL RECORD TO THE UNDER: 387-191-13 67% 8.06 z-score Make the play on the UNDER |
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09-21-19 | Wyoming v. Tulsa UNDER 47 | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 102 h 10 m | Show |
This is from my totals formula that kicks in starting week 4: OVERALL RECORD TO THE UNDER: 387-191-13 67% 8.06 z-score Make the play on the UNDER |
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09-21-19 | Wyoming v. Tulsa -3 | Top | 21-24 | Push | 0 | 76 h 10 m | Show |
The Wyoming Cowboys are off to a surprising 3-0 start. They opened the season in impressive fashion with a 37-31 win over Missouri. The issue at hand here which offers a lot of hidden value is Wyoming is not what the record looks like. They were out-gained by Missouri 537-389 bit held a +3 margin in turnovers. They are 3-0 bit have been out-gained by every opponent they have faced and bot barely, but nu over 100 yards per game. This is a one-dimensional team that runs the ball almost every play because QB Chambers is completing 39% of his passes. They don't even have a receiver that has 65 yards receiving on the season. Tulsa is going to put 7-8 in the box and dare them to throw it. Moreover, Wyoming has had to defend 19 more plays a game than their opponent. Opponents have run off 240 plays and Wyoming 184. Tulsa had a big problem last year as they had no QB that could move the offense. Enter Baylor transfer Zach Smith and suddenly the Golden Hurricane have a passing attack. This team led Oklahoma St. at the half, but allowed TDs of 90 and 75 yards, but otherwise went toe-to-toe with them. They also lost to Michigan St. so the 1-2 recor is not what it looks like. Overall, Tulsa is a lot better than they appear, and Wyoming a lot worse. Make the play on Tulsa. |
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09-21-19 | Troy v. Akron UNDER 56.5 | Top | 35-7 | Win | 100 | 102 h 42 m | Show |
This is from my totals formula that kicks in starting week 4: OVERALL RECORD TO THE UNDER: 387-191-13 67% 8.06 z-score Make the play on the UNDER |
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09-21-19 | Michigan v. Wisconsin UNDER 43.5 | Top | 14-35 | Loss | -109 | 99 h 46 m | Show |
This is from my totals formula that kicks in starting week 4: OVERALL RECORD TO THE UNDER: 387-191-13 67% 8.06 z-score Make the play on the UNDER |
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09-21-19 | Southern Miss v. Alabama UNDER 61 | Top | 7-49 | Win | 100 | 99 h 42 m | Show |
This is from my totals formula that kicks in starting week 4: OVERALL RECORD TO THE UNDER: 387-191-13 67% 8.06 z-score Make the play on the UNDER |
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09-21-19 | Michigan State -8.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 31-10 | Win | 100 | 23 h 40 m | Show |
Michigan St. lost a tough one last week 10-7 at home vs a very underrated Arizona St. team. Michigan St. at this point of the season is seen by the public as being a one-sided team, all defense, and no offense. That is where the value lies in this game. Michigan St. has significantly under-achieved points vs the yardage the offense has generated. They have out-gained all 3 opponents by a combined 1289-794 or by 495 yards in 3 games. That just does not translate to the points they have scored. Northwestern graduated a lot of pieces from last year's team, but are pretty well stocked and the big question was at QB. That hole seemed to be filled by a highly ranked transfer from Clemson in Hunter Johnson. Johnson was supposed to be the type of runner and passer never seen before at Northwestern, but thus far he has been a huge bust. Johnson is just 18-42 42.9% with 1 TD and 3 INTs. he has run for just 68 yards on 22 carries. Nobody runs on Michigan St. and with Northwestern lacking a strong running game, and a weak passing game, they are going to be hard-pressed to score much at all here, and in fact, I would not be surprised if the Michigan defense scores in this game. Michigan St. has an above-average offense, and the poor scoring numbers are going to change. Michigan St. is going to come in ready off a tough loss, and will bring it. make the play on Michigan St. |
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09-15-19 | Bears v. Broncos +3 | Top | 16-14 | Win | 100 | 32 h 10 m | Show |
The Denver Broncos showed very little in an opening week loss to Oakland 24-16. They now host a Chicago Bear team that did very little against a much improved Green Bay defense. Now the venues change, as Denver is at home in an early-season game (more on that in a minute), while Chicago takes to the road for the first time this season. The Broncos have the biggest home-field advantage of any team in the BFL due to the altitude. That is especially the case early in the season (week's 1 and 2 in particular). Most NFL starters play very little during the NFLX, and some don't play at all. It takes a couple of weeks to get back in full game shape. When you combine that with playing at a mile high altitude, it has been a game-changer over many years. Since 1989 the Broncos at home in week's 1 and 2 are 33-3 SU and 22-11-3 ATS. (16-0 SU in week 2). Overall they are 23-13-3 ATS as a home dog in all games, 17-5-2 ATS as a home dog of 3 or less winning 17 outright! When the game is not a division game (those teams come here every year), the Broncos are 15-4-1 ATS in week's 1 and 2, and 19-1 SU. They have never not covered as a home dog in week 1 or 2. Make the play on Denver. |
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09-15-19 | Colts v. Titans UNDER 44.5 | Top | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 47 h 44 m | Show |
This game is based in large part to a very strong UNDER situation that looks like this: division = o:division and HF and total > 43.5 and rest = 6 and opo:points < 32SU:207-90-0 (5.95, 69.7%) Teaser RecordsATS:142-143-12 (-0.22, 49.8%) avg line: -6.2+6: 204-85-8 (70.6%) -6: 77-215-5 (26.4%) +10: 235-56-6 (80.8%) -10: 55-241-1 (18.6%) O/U:109-186-2 (-2.78, 36.9%)Play the under in a division game with a home favorite and total >43.5 if the home favorite is on regular rest, and the opponent's previous opponent scored 31 or less points. Make the play on the UNDER. |
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09-15-19 | Seahawks v. Steelers -3.5 | Top | 28-26 | Loss | -105 | 47 h 43 m | Show |
The Pittsburgh Steelers got their clock cleaned in their opener vs New England. They were never in the game and lost 33-3. So have the Steelers finally declined, and with Bell and Brown no longer part of the offense and an aging Big Ben with pieces missing spell doom? I don`t think that has been answered yet, and at least for this week, all indications ate this is a great spot. Seattle won last week by a single point. If you looked at the boxscore they should have lost by 20. They were out-played in every facet at home by a team projected to be going nowhere. Seattle has a long history of struggling on the road in the early part of the season as they are 4-22-1 ATS playing on the road in week`s 1-4 (1-16-1 ATS week`s 1-3). The Steelers aren`t very used to getting their tail whipped, and losing by 20 points, but in Roethlisvergers 15 years they are now 8-1 after a 20 point loss. On a side note, the Seahawks have not scored a point in Pittsburgh in 20 years! ( a pair of shutouts). Tomlin has been here 12 years and has started 0-2 just 1 time. This has been Ben`s sweet spot playing in a game where the total is 43.5 to 50.5 where he is 32-22 ATS. Make the play on Pittsburgh. |
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09-14-19 | Iowa -1.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 18-17 | Loss | -106 | 27 h 42 m | Show |
Last year I was on Iowa St. for weeks and won every time. It is emotionally difficult to move away from them after all that. Iowa St. was transformed when Brock Purdy took over at QB. He had a game-changer in WR Hakeem Butler, that was a deep threat always. He also had an NFL RB in David Montgomery. Those are 2 pieces that are not going to be replaced, and we saw the impact on Purdy and the Iowa St. offense against N. Iowa. The Cyclones had trouble offensively, and Purdy was frustrated all day. It took Iowa St. 3 IT's to win that one at home and they really should have lost. The eye test says the offense is going to struggle against a good defense, while the defense still looks pretty good. Iowa is a challenge as the Hawkeyes always play well defensively and come into this game having shutout 3 of their last 7 Big-10 opponents, going back to last year. Hawkeyes travel well especially as a favorite where they are 17-0 SU and 15-1-1 ATS in their last 17 in this role. Iowa has a bye next week so they will let it all out here, and think that is enough vs an Iowa St. team that has to find a RB and a receiver that can stretch the field, and that looks to be absent right now. Make the play on Iowa. |
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09-14-19 | Colorado State v. Arkansas -9.5 | Top | 34-55 | Win | 100 | 27 h 34 m | Show |
Arkansas is just 6-18 in the last 2 years and for a once powerhouse football school these numbers have to change. The public may be sleeping on this team, and like we saw in Iowa St. last year when Brock Purdy was inserted as the starting QB, and the offense took off. Arkansas has an even better option and we have had a prelude to what to expect. Shockingly Ben Hicks was named the Arkansas starting QB ahead of Texas A&M transfer Nick Starkel. Starkel as a freshman at A&M threw from 1800 yards with 60% completions at 8.6 tards per attempt. This guy is a big-time QB. Hicks started the season 21-45 at 46.7% and 5.4 yards an attempt. Starkel took over and went 21-29 at 72.4% 249 yards at 8.6 yards an attempt. There has been a tremendous upgrade to the Arkansas offense. Colorado St. allowed 52 points to Colorado in their opener, and many see this Arkansas team as a lot less than they really are. I'm betting that Starkel is in the process of transforming this team, with few aware. Make the play on Arkansas. |
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09-14-19 | Kansas State +7.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 26 h 28 m | Show |
I have been following Kansas St. social media sites all summer, and the players love Klieman, think he has put a lot of energy back into the program. The transfers Gilbert and Brown have at the very least stabilized the RB position which was bankrupt coming in. Heard nothing but praise for Thompson (QB), he is ready to take the next step up. WR's Schoen and Knowles can stretch a defense. The talent left behind is average, but the coaching and enthusiasm elevate it. Miss St. (QB ailing), no defensive pressure at all. Miss St. OL not as deep and Parker likely out, and Williams and Wilkerson (questionable). This looks like a 7 point game either way, actually, think KST can win if things go right. Make the play on Kansas St. |
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09-08-19 | Ravens -6.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 59-10 | Win | 100 | 50 h 25 m | Show |
It looks like the Miami Dolphins are taking the route of the Cleveland Browns, willing to take a few years hit, and stockpile draft pick, and find a QB at the top of the draft. They have bankrupted the team of talent, and the last move sending Tunsil and Stills to Houston for draft picks confirms the agenda. The move to bring in Brian Flores as head coach os a babysitting job, and with Chad O'Shea taking over the play-calling as OC just goes one step further as he has never previously called plays. Miami has no difference makers on offense and defense and it will be ugly. They have 4 number 1 and 4 number 2 draft picks over the next 2 years. John Harbaugh was certainly on the hot seat last year. Sitting at 4-5 and on a 3 game losing streak, and losing Joe Flacco to injury seemed fatal. then in comes Lamar Jackson who in just 7 games set an NFL QB record for carries with 147. The offense pounded the ball relentlessly, dominated the clock and the Ravens went 6-1 down the stretch and won the AFC North. The defense, as usual, was top-notch, #1 in the NFL. They have added 2 tight ends in the draft, and have some receivers that should balance the offense. The defense took some hits, but still will be strong. Over the last 3 years, they have allowed an average of 19ppg. Miami will send QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (better known as Ryan Mcpick-6), and his age at 37 and his INT rate from a year ago of 5% should rise with no weapons. This should be a double-digit win for the Ravens. Make the play on Baltimore. |
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09-08-19 | Titans +6 v. Browns | Top | 43-13 | Win | 100 | 49 h 9 m | Show |
This is a big season for Marcus Mariota. This will be his 5th year and will be looking for a big contract. he spent the better part of last season, as he has for much of his career battling injuries. He will start the season healthy along with 2 keys to this game where the Titans have great matchups. TE Delanie Walker missed a lot of last season, and RB Derrick Henry seemed to break through late last season. Henry just made it to the 1000 yard mark and most of that cane in his last 4 games where he posted 585 of them. The Titans have to do a better job in the first half. They trailed at the half 10 times and were tied at the half twice. They out-scored opponents 15 times in the second half! Consistency was compromised due to injuries. While they lost games to Buffalo and Miami, they beat Houston and Philadelphia and blew out New England by 24 and Dallas by 14. It shows what this team is capable of when healthy. Cleveland is rising and expected to be a playoff team. They will be exploited after losing OG Kevin Zeiter who allowed fewer offensive pressures than any other player a year ago. Baker Mayfield lokes to throw deep, but the Titan`s are strong in defending that. The Titans after 4 years of winning a total of 18 games have now won 27 in the last 3 years, and this may be their best shot of getting over the top. A healthy Mariota, and Delanie Walker, along with an emerging Derrick Henry, against a Brown`s front seven that was the league`s worst at stopping the run, and favorable defensive matchups vs Cleveland, makes this game very close. Make the play on Tennessee. |
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09-07-19 | Texas A&M +17.5 v. Clemson | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 48 h 48 m | Show |
The Clemson Tigers and the Alabama Crimson Tide have dominated the NCAA Football scene for several years now. It certainly looks like that is about to occur again. There are some questions for this Clemson team. They have so many playmakers on offense it is scary. That isn't the question. The defense took a lot of key hits, losing All-Americans off the DL and 6 NFL departures in all. The entire middle of the line is gone, and would-be replacements Nyles Pinckney, and Jordan Williams both missed the spring with injuries. They have able-bodied replacements, but overall they will simply not be as good. Texas A&M has plenty of experience facing top-level competition. The Aggies got good again in 2010, and with Kellen Mond at QB, and plenty of offense themselves, they will move the ball here. Mond improved significantly year-over-year and is poised for another jump this season. Texas A&M has more than proved they can play with the big boys. They have faced a #1 ranked Alabama team 5 times and is 4-1 ATS losing by an average of just 10.1ppg. They also out-played Clemson last year in a 28-26 loss, failing on a 2 point conversion that would have forced overtime. The Aggies out-gained Clemson 501-413 had a 25-14 first down advantage, held Etienne to 44 yards, made them punt 8 times, while Mond vs a better defense passed for 430 yards 3 TDs and 0 INTs. The difference was a -2 in turnover margin, on 2 costly fumbles. The Aggies bring in a #4 ranked recruiting class of a pair of 5* and 14 four-star players. They are better than last year, but the record may not be. The schedule is the toughest in the country facing #1 Clemson, #2 Alabama, #3 Georgia, #6 LSU, and #10 Auburn. That is 3 games on the road vs top 6 teams. The Aggies have proven to be able to stay with top-ranked teams, and there are enough holes in the Clemson defense that they can score enough here to get the money. Make the play on Texas A&M.
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09-07-19 | Nebraska -4 v. Colorado | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -107 | 47 h 26 m | Show |
The Colorado Buffalos were obe at the pinnacle of the college football world, reigning supreme in the old Big-8/Big-12 along with Nebraska and Oklahoma. things have really changed. Colorado win 10 games in 2016, but in 11 seasons sandwiched around that, they have not had a winning season, and stand at 45-102 SU and 56-84-6 ATS. last year they started 5-0, but the roof collapsed as they finished 0-7. This year looks similar to all the seasons from above where they have averaged losing by 9ppg in 147 games. Nebraska looked very poor and uninterested last week, perhaps because they have had this game circled since last year's loss to Colorado when QB Martinez had his ankle twisted in a pile-up. You can be sure the focus will be different this year. The line here is shaded by the curious poor play by Nebraska last week, and I see a team that has motivational reasons to bring the "A" game to Colorado after the perhaps dirty injury to Adrian Martinez last year. Make the play on Nebraska. |
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09-07-19 | Syracuse v. Maryland -1.5 | Top | 20-63 | Win | 100 | 20 h 17 m | Show |
The Syracuse Orange had a breakout season winning 10 games last year for the first time since 1992. They will be remembered for taking Clemson to the wire in a heartbreaking 27-23 loss. This is going to be a much different year. The 2018 team averaged 40ppg and they looked horrific vs Liberty managing just 24 points. There is another problem. Next week they will be hosting Clemson, and one-eye will be on that game. New Syracuse Tommy Devito looked really bad against Liberty completing just 17 of 35 passes and 176 yards. There was a lot of miscommunication on the field, and they won't be able to duplicate that against Maryland or they are going to lose. While the rushing numbers look good (over 200 yards) it was generated at a subpar 4 yards a carry. Maryland now has former Virginia Tech QB Josh Jackson and he is an upgrade from a year ago. teaming with star running back Anthony Mcfarland, the Terps offense will be much better. I really believe this Syracuse team is highly over-rated off of last year, and the hype machine for Clemson is already getting attention, and personally, I think they will get destroyed. Maryland is a borderline Bowl team at best, but have enough to win at home here vs a team that has no offense. Make the play on Maryland. |
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09-06-19 | William & Mary v. Virginia OVER 45 | Top | 17-52 | Win | 100 | 28 h 47 m | Show |
This game is about situations and the one that applies here is on the total. A heavy chalk to a low total almost always goes over the total, and the reason is that 67% if the time the heavy chalk foes over the total by themselves! These games win 82.4% of the time and cover by 11.40 points. Right now just 1 nook has the total up, but there will be more as these FBS v FCS games often put out later lines than normal. Play on the over in a game where the line is -30 or more and the total is 48 or less: line |
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09-05-19 | Packers +3.5 v. Bears | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
The 2019 NFL season will lift the curtain in Chicago, as the Green Bay Packers take on the Bears. The packers are off consecutive losing campaigns, which led to the firing of Mike McCarthy, entering Matt LaFleur. QB Aaron Rodgers became critical of McCarthy's play-calling, and the Packer offense should be better. There is one bigger reason why. Aaron Rodgers revealed that in the first half of game 1 last year vs the Bear's he suffered a tibial plateau fracture, as well as a sprained MCL. Ridgers was stripped of being his true effective self and was dropped 49 times. he enters 2019 with a new dynamic playbook, and healthy. the Green Bay defense has been upgraded substantially with the additions of a pair of OLB in Za'Darius Smith and Preston Smith, as well as safety Adrian Amos. The Packers also added Rashon Gary a pass rusher on the end, and safety Darnell Savage, bith coming in the first round of the draft. The Bears won 12 games a year ago, but the schedule was extremely soft. Chicago won 8 games vs teams that won 6 games or less, as well as losing 2 to teams that won 6 games or less and beat just 2 teams with 9+ wins. QB Mitch Trubisky was erratic, and often inconsistent. The Bears defense is strong, but they are going to get the first look of Rodgers running a new offense and could be caught off guard. here is another tidbit that applies to week 1 of the NFL: A team that is a road dog of less than 7 and win 6 or fewer games a year ago are: 49-19-6 covering 72.1% of all bets. tS(W) |
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08-30-19 | UMass v. Rutgers -15.5 | Top | 21-48 | Win | 100 | 32 h 20 m | Show |
Expert Analysis: There will not be a lot of interest in this game as Rutgers rakes on U |
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08-29-19 | Kent State v. Arizona State -23 | Top | 7-30 | Push | 0 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
Expert Analysis: Arizona St. was projected low a year ago and had a great season considering. They were the only school in the country that had a 1,500-yard rusher, a 3000-yard passer, and a 1000 yard receiver. Returning is RB Benjamin who went for over 1600 yards a year ago. The Sun Devil`s are built with tremendous speed and the offensive line is going to control this game with 5 senior starters. Arizona St. had a laughable defense 2 years ago, had the youngest defense in the FBS a year ago, and now are poised to be the most intimidating group in the P-12. Jayden Daniels will br the QB, and he has the running ability and speedy talented receivers. Kent Sy. was 2-10 a year ago and has made all of 3 Bowl appearances in 99 years, and 0 wins. The Golden Flashes have played 38 games vs the likes of the SEC, ACC, and B10 and are 0-38 (11-23-1 ATS), and losing by an average score of 7.8 to 41. (5-15 ATS from 20.5 to 36). The Sun Devils averaged 43.3ppg in non-conference home games since 2009, and are 27-1 SU and 17-8 ATS in game 1 if at home. Kent St. is not a good team, and the depth is lacking which will be a major issue here. A team tends to be in lesser game shape in game number 1 and in this case, the Golden Flashes will be taking on the desert heat where the 7 PM start time projects a temperature of 100 degrees, and still 93 at game`s end. Welcome to the desert. Make the play on Arizona St. |
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08-29-19 | Florida International v. Tulane -3 | Top | 14-42 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
Expert Analysis: This is a very important game for a pair of coaches that have each elevated the school they now represent. Butch Davis has led FIU to consecutive Bowl games and 17 wins in his first 2 years. Willie Fritz has succeeded everywhere he has been and in his 3 tears at Tulane, his team has improved each season. Tulane had just 1 winning season in 15 years prior to last season`s 7 wins, which included wins vs S. Florida and Memphis. Looking back at 2018 Florida International was 8-4 in the regular season, but personally, I think this team was highly over-rated. The panthers 8 wins came at the expense of teams that combined to fo 29-58, and an additional win was vs Arkansas Pine Bluff. They barely out-gained the opponents on their schedule despite the relative weakness of opponents. They have another issue as they have to rebuild their offensive line, and Tulane has some disrupters upfront and returns 8 defenders from a team that recorded 46 sacks a year ago. The strength of the Panthers is defending the pass, and Tulane likes to grind it out averaging over 200 rushing yards a game a year ago. I really like Willie Fritz, and the Green Wave will be at home here, and they should get the money here. Make the play on Tulane. |
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02-03-19 | Patriots -2.5 v. Rams | Top | 13-3 | Win | 100 | 125 h 50 m | Show |
The time has come for the big game, as the New England Patriots once again has made it to the big game, and ironically will face the LA Rams where the Belichick/Brady duo made their first Super Bowl appearance also against the Rams. I guess this completes the circle. Ut certainly looks like New England is the square side of this game, as bets are poinding the Pats at a record pace as of this writing. I often shun going against a sizable public favorite as it is typically the wrong side. The Super Bowl, however, is on an island in that regard, just because so many people get engaged. The public opinion can mostly be ignored. looking back at the last 15 Super Bowls, the public has been 3-2 ATS when 60% or more are on one side, and 6-2 ATS when 56% or more backs a given side. Bill Belichick is a very tough coach to play against because he does things in such a way, all the sets you see on film from the season, have become something designed to trick the defense when they do something different out of that set. Brady us like an extension of Belichick under center. He sees how many defenders are in the box, and calls a run or pass according to what the defense dictates. When he plays a team that has not played him at any point in the season he is 16-1 SU, the only loss last year to Philadelphia. Belichick also has a strong record vs the NFC West where he is 20-6 SU/ATS and an amazing 12-0 ATS if not a favorite of more than 3. New England was 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS vs playoff teams this year, LA 5-3/3-5. If the Rams can't get to Brady, and their best chance will be Aaron Donald, they are not going to win. The problem is Donald had 20.5 sacks this year, but 16.5 of them came in a 9 game stretch. He had just 4 before and after, and 3 came vs Arizona, and one vs SF. He had 0 vs New Orleans twice, KC, Chicago, and Philadelphia. He has been double-teamed often and a non-factor. Brady has been sacked 0 times in 90 playoff dropbacks, and in 290 dropbacks in his last 8 games, he has been sacked just 5 times. Brady was not sacked in 6 games this season, more than any other season in his career. The pats are 25-4 ATS when he is not sacked, and 31-7-1 ATS (20-2-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -7.5) when he is sacked less than 2 times. That has some significance because oddsmakers have put a prop line out at 1.5 got Brady sacks. The Rams defense allowed over 30ppg in the 10 games they played vs winning teams and 15.8ppg vs everyone else. I don't think they are equipped to stop this NE offense, nor do I think they can win a shootout if it turns into that. I'm making the play on New England. PROPS: Jullian Edelman MVP +2600 I'm well aware that 54.7% of all Super Bowl MVP's have been a quarterback (29). There is no betting value on selecting a QB in this prop. The next level is RB or WR each winning 6 times (11.3%). While I don't expect to win this prop wager, it has the best available odds of any other, so it does have the highest betting value. Edelman has a chance to pop a big play in many different ways. First, he will be targeted plenty. (131 targets in 14 games), The Belichick strategy has involved Welker (the previous Edelman) extensively more in the Super Bowl. Edelman was not available the last year but was targeted 13 times in 2016-17, and 12 times in 2014-15. (196 total receiving yards). Welker was targeted 8 times in 2011-12, and 14 times in 2007-08. he will certainly have opportunities here. Remember he was suspended for the first 4 games this year and was targeted 62 times over his last 6 games. (23 times in 2 playoff games 247 yards). He also returns punts which gives him another way to impact the game, and he ran the ball 10 times this season for 11.4 yards a carry, another way he has a chance to impact the game. Edelman was also a QB in college, and threw 2 passes this season for 43 yards and remains a possibility to put one in the air in this game, yet another chance to impact the game. I just think he has more potential ways to impact the game than any other non-QB. ******************************************************************************************************************************** PENALTIES ACCEPTED UNDER 12.5 -110 Both of these teams are pretty disciplined when it comes to giving up yardage by penalty. They each ranked in the top 10 this season in fewest penalties committed. The Patriots under Belichick have always been pretty good at not being penalized very much. The last 5 Super Bowls played by New England has seen them penalized 5 times or less un all 5, and as a team has averaged 4 penalties a game over those last 5. Looking at the last 31 Super Bowls, the refs tend to "let the teams play" a bit more than the regular season. We saw some glaring examples of that in the playoffs this year. Over the last 31 Super Bowls, there has been just 9 of the 31 that saw 13 or more accepted penalties occurring, which is just 29% of the time. That means 71% of the time the game did not get to this number. ******************************************************************************************************************************** JULIAN EDELMAN OVER 80.5 -110 RECEIVING YARDS: There is no doubt Edelman will be a significant factor in the Patriots game plan as well as the Rams defensive game plan. This isn't Brady's and Belichick's first rodeo. Edelman and Welker have had the same role in many Patriot Super Bowls, with defenses trying to stop them, and in short, they haven't. Four of the last 5 involved one of the two and they were targeted 47 times. Edelman has topped this number in his 2 Super Bowl appearances, both his playoff games this year, 7 of his last 11 regular season games this year, and has averaged 99.2 receiving yards per game in 12 playoff or Super Bowl appearances. ****************************************************************************************************************************** DEFENSIVE OR SPECIAL TEAMS SCORE: YES +160: This may be the largest value of any prop on the list this season. The last 31 Super Bowls has seen a defensive or special teams score occur in 19 of them or 61.3% of all games. Getting plus odds on something that has been 61.3% is an outstanding value. ********************************************************************************************************************************* TOTAL MADE FG's FOR THE GAME UNDER 3.5 -110: Looking over the lat 31 Super Bowls played there have been just 10 of them that saw a game with 4+ FG's made. That means 67.7% of the time this simply has not occurred. ********************************************************************************************************************************* LONGEST MADE FG UNDER 47.5 yards -115: The last Super Bowl that saw a made FG of 48 yards or longer was Super Bowl 38! The fact is there have been some big legs in this game, but just 4 times in the last 31 years has a FG been made in this game from 48 yards out or longer. ****************************************************************************************************************************** WHICH TEAM WILL GET THE MOST FIRST DOWNS - NEW ENGLAND -110 Bill Belichick has been utilizing the run and a short passing game to play in the post-season for a number of years now. While the Rams had more first downs this year than NE 401-365, the NE offense in the post-season simply translates to generate more first downs. The 2 playoff games saw NE win that battle 30-22, and 36-16. The last 21 NE playoff games counting Super Bowls they have won the first down battle 16 of 21 times, and have averaged over 30 first downs in their last 3 Super Bowls, while also winning the battle of moving the chains in all 3. ****************************************************************************************************************************** TOM BRADY COMPLETIONS OVER 25.5 -140: The Belichick offense changes in the playoffs. It is an offense of running and short passes. The 8 Super Bowls with him and Brady has seen the longest completed pass be 28 yards or less. The ball is in the air often for short chain moving drives. Case in point, in the regular season this year Brady never threw 30 completions in a game, and in the 2 playoff games 30, 34. Further proof can be found in his last 4 playoff seasons. Brady played 11 playoff games and has averaged over 30 completions per game each year. The ball is likely to be in the air a lot. ******************************************************************************************************************************** TOM BRADY SACKS UNDER 1.5 +150 This will look dangerous to most bettors with Aaron Donald lining up on the other side. Donald had 20.5 sacks this year. Looking back at Donald's season, however, he had 16.5 of those sacks in a 9 game stretch, so before and after that, he had 4. Those 4 came vs weak teams in Arizona (3), and SF (1). His 4 games down the stretch vs Chicago, Philadelphia, Dallas, and New Orleans saw him get 0, and he has not recorded a sack in the playoffs. Tom Brady in his last 8 games which includes 290 dropbacks has been sacked a grand total of 5 times, and 0 times in 90 playoff dropbacks. He has been sacked 2 times in 1 of the 8 games. |
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01-20-19 | Patriots v. Chiefs UNDER 55.5 | Top | 37-31 | Loss | -110 | 125 h 24 m | Show |
Sunday, January 20th, 2019 Top Total Play · Under [313] New England Patriots vs. [314] Kansas City ChiefsSun Jan 20th, 2019 6:40 pm EST Win/Loss UndecidedExpert Preview: MREAST NFL SUNDAY PLAY OF THE DAYExpert Analysis: this is going to go down as one of the coldest weather games in NFL history with game time temperatures in the single numbers, and falling. I`m well aware of Tom Brady in cold weather where he is 24-4 SU when the temperature is below 30 degrees. However, most all of those were at home. Tom Terrific has 46 TDs and 18 INTs at home in the playoffs and a lot more pedestrian 8 TDs and 8 INTs on the road. That has led NE to scoring 29.2ppg at home vs just 24.3ppg on the road in the playoffs. The temperature has a lot to do with how games are played. A temperature of over 50 degrees shows all games average 650.4 yards a game, while a temperature of fewer than 10 degrees shows 608.6. Scoring looks like this in NFL history: TEMPERATURE: >50 44.3 |
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01-20-19 | Patriots v. Chiefs -3 | Top | 37-31 | Loss | -103 | 125 h 13 m | Show |
The weather may turn out to be the story as New England heads to frigid Kansas City for the AFC Conference Championship. Game time temperatures are expected to be around 5 degrees and falling. Let me get one thing out of the way. Tom Brady has been lethal in cold weather, 24-4 SU for his career with a temperature below freezing, including 12-1 SU in the playoffs. The problem is 12 of those 13 were at home. New England has not won a road playoff game since 2007! (0-3). His home playoff numbers show 46 TDs/18 INT's 29.2ppg. bit the road just 8 TDs/8 INTs and 24.3ppg. Bog difference! The Chefs fit a huge playoff situation as well. In a playoff game played on a team that averages better than 2.95 sacks a game and throws for more yards per pass attempt than their opponent to a total of higher than 39 and not a favorite of -7 or more. These teams are 24-2 ATS. Also, a playoff team that lost this season to this opponent by exactly 3 points is 17-3 ATS in the playoffs. Make the play on KC. |
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01-20-19 | Rams v. Saints OVER 56 | Top | 26-23 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 21 m | Show |
There is a long-standing playoff marker that indicates surface matters in the NFL playoffs. here is what I am talking about: reg season HF grass 1275-1316 O/U playoffs HF grass 34-45 O/U ****************************************************** reg season artificial 1064-1113 O/U playoffs artificial 44-28 O/U results are approx. 20% different to the total. Playoff teams as a home favorite on artificial turf to a total of higher than 47.5 vs an opponent that played its last game on grass and averages more than 23ppg are 15-2 to the over. Make the play on the over. |