This game fits a situation that is 282-173, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 97-52 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 62-29 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 262-188, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 262-188, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 79-31 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 79-31 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 42-15 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 22-4 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 96-51 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 22-4 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 179-113, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 82-22 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 183-117 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 96-49 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 95-49 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 247-153 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 247-153 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 283-161 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 78-31 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 95-49 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 61-27 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 94-49 ATS and the play is on the over.

If you like scoring in the NBA, this is a game you may be interested in. The Brooklyn Nets allow 115ppg and Houston likes to get up and down themselves averaging 111ppg. The Nets have allowed 110 or more points in 13 straight games, and have no interest in defense. Houston is allowing 106ppg, and simply doesn`t pay attention to the defensive end, and with the 6-16 Nets in town, don`t expect that to change, at least for tonight`s contest. Houston has topped the century mark in 10 straight games, pouring it on for 130 in three of those. This game fits a situation that is highly predictive of a high scoring game, one that has been 93-49 to the over in the last 27 years. Make the play on the over.

The NY Knicks may finally be putting something together. They got off to a poor start, but have some good new pieces, that appear to finally be coming together. The Knicks are just 13-10 overall, but are 8-3 in their last 11 games. The Lakers were playing at a higher level than last year, but have really had some problems with the offense of late. Their last 10 games reveal that they have shot better than 44% from the field in just 1 of them. There is a huge situation active today, based on the Lakers poor effort on the defensive end. teams that have allowed 100 in at least 5 straight games, facing an opponent off a close win of 3 points or less are 101-56 to the under in their next game. Make the play on the under in this one.

The Golden St. Warriors elite offense was held in check last night in Memphis, failing to reach the 90 point mark for the first time all season. They do won a 17-2 SU mark vs Minnesota in their last 19 meetings, and these teams have historically played under the total, with 44 of the last 77 contests failing to get to the total. The last 15 in this series have seen 10 play out under the total. Golden St. should be focused off a rare blowout loss, and look for this one to play out under the total.

This is a huge in state rivalry game, with 8-2 Wisconsin squaring off with 7-2 Marquette. This will truly be a battle of wills, as Marquette likes to get up and down the floor while Wisconsin has been a slow tempo half court team for a long time. Wisconsin`s methodical pace has see their last 368 games average a total of 126.4 combined points, a long way from what we are looking at here for this one. The fact is, just 26 of their lined games over the period of games has seen the Wisconsin Badgers play in a game that saw 150 or mor points scored by both teams. There isn`t much else to be said here, as this has a strong look of an over-priced total. Make the play on the under

This game fits a situation that is 90-38 ATS, and the play is on the over.

The Miami Heat went into Utah last night and battled their way to a 1 point road win over the Jazz.The Heat have been poor on offense this season, but have been much more efficient in recent games, topping the century mark in each of their last 4 games. They had previously scored 100+ in just 1 out of 11 games. The Trailblazers love to run up and down the court, and they have hit the century mark in 18 of their 20 games played on the season. They have even turned it up a notch in their last 4 games, which have averaged 242.3ppg by both teams. Both these clubs have the offense in peak form right now, and couple that with a situation active for this game that is 92-48 to the over, I would expect the points to be flowing in Portland tonight. Make the play on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 91-48 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 268-156 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 268-156 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 268-156 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 268-156 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 90-47 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 178-113 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 176-113 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 88-48 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 279-172 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 279-172 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 175-113 ATS, and the play is on the over

This game fits a situation that is 87-47 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 95-54 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 87-47 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 49-19 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 182-107 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 166-99 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 56-20 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 85-46 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 166-93 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 155-84 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a totals situation that is 220-145 ATS, an the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 159-279 O/U and the the play is on the under.

This game applies to a situation that is 218-144 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a totals situation which is 217-144 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 263-181 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game applies to a totals situation which is 90-45 O/U, it applies tonight, make the play on the over.

This game applies to a totals situation that is 174-112 O/U, and applies to this game, make the play on the over.

This game fits a totals situation that is 181-107 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a totals situation that is 127-80 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a totals situation that is 258-159 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a totals situation that is 510-398 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a totals situation that is 242-152 ATS and the play is on the under.

Game one has long been a struggle for most teams on the offensive end. That can be shown by the fact that all home teams in game 1 are 149-180-4 O/U, or 54.7% fail to reach the total. When it is a relatively high total, of 200 or more, with a line of greater than -3 (true home favorite), they are 16-37-1 O/U or 70% fail to reach the total. Make the play on the under.

Game one has long been a struggle for most teams on the offensive end. That can be shown by the fact that all home teams in game 1 are 149-180-4 O/U, or 54.7% fail to reach the total. When it is a relatively high total, of 200 or more, with a line of greater than -3 (true home favorite), they are 16-37-1 O/U or 70% fail to reach the total. Make the play on the under.

Game one has long been a struggle for most teams on the offensive end. That can be shown by the fact that all home teams in game 1 are 149-180-4 O/U, or 54.7% fail to reach the total. When it is a relatively high total, of 200 or more, with a line of greater than -3 (true home favorite), they are 16-37-1 O/U or 70% fail to reach the total. Make the play on the under.

Game one has long been a struggle for most teams on the offensive end. That can be shown by the fact that all home teams in game 1 are 149-180-4 O/U, or 54.7% fail to reach the total. When it is a relatively high total, of 200 or more, with a line of greater than -3 (true home favorite), they are 16-37-1 O/U or 70% fail to reach the total. Make the play on the under.

Game one has long been a struggle for most teams on the offensive end. That can be shown by the fact that all home teams in game 1 are 149-180-4 O/U, or 54.7% fail to reach the total. When it is a relatively high total, of 200 or more, with a line of greater than -3 (true home favorite), they are 16-37-1 O/U or 70% fail to reach the total. Make the play on the under.

Game one has long been a struggle for most teams on the offensive end. That can be shown by the fact that all home teams in game 1 are 149-180-4 O/U, or 54.7% fail to reach the total. When it is a relatively high total, of 200 or more, with a line of greater than -3 (true home favorite), they are 16-37-1 O/U or 70% fail to reach the total. Make the play on the under.

Game one has long been a struggle for most teams on the offensive end. That can be shown by the fact that all home teams in game 1 are 149-180-4 O/U, or 54.7% fail to reach the total. When it is a relatively high total, of 200 or more, with a line of greater than -3 (true home favorite), they are 16-37-1 O/U or 70% fail to reach the total. Make the play on the under.

Game one has long been a struggle for most teams on the offensive end. That can be shown by the fact that all home teams in game 1 are 149-180-4 O/U, or 54.7% fail to reach the total. When it is a relatively high total, of 200 or more, with a line of greater than -3 (true home favorite), they are 16-37-1 O/U or 70% fail to reach the total. Make the play on the under.

The Cleveland Cavs took advantage of the absence of Draymond Green, and a lackluster performance by the Golden St. Warriors to stay alive in the series, now down 3-2. It was an epic game by James and Irving, as the duo providing almost all the offense, scoring 82 of th3 112 Cav's points or 73.2%. They were 33-54 at 61.1%. Thompson and Curry did not have a bad game, finishing 19-41, as well as 11-25 from deep. Combined the top 4 players went 52-95 (.547), from deep they were 20-40 (.500), and at the line 20-23 (.870). perhaps most telling is, despite those crazy numbers, this game could not make it over the total. The Warriors played without Green, and his defensive presence will surely cut down on the drives to the rim, and the 28 fast break points by the Cav's will not be repeated, so points are going to have to be earned in this one. My biggest support comes from a playoff situation which is 22-77 O/U, and it has dominated this season in the playoffs as well. Make the play on the under, my NBA GOM.

The Golden St. Warriors quickly, and easily dispatched of the Cleveland Cavs in the first 2 games of this series. The venue changes for game 3, which is a must win situation for the Cavs, or it is over and out. The public is split on both the side and the total for game 3, but I think the Cavs have to come ready to play defense in game 3, as the offense just has not been there at all vs Golden St. over all meetings occurring in the last 2 years. The Cavs have shot 37.2% in the 11 games, and just 28.5% from deep, 82-288. They are potentially without Kevin Love for game 3, so the rotation, and offense has less options, not more. While they have shot better at home 169-400 (42.2%), the 3's have not fallen even here, at 35-121 (28.9%). Hard to see this one getting to the total unless the Cavs do something offensively that they have not done in the last 11 games vs Golden St. Cleveland has allowed just 90.4ppg at home the last 2 years in the playoffs, and the same this year, 90.4ppg. teams that get blown out in the first 2 games of a playoff series, often come back strong defensively in game 3. Overall and NBA playoff team, that lost the first 2 games of a series by more than 42 combined points, and is home for game 3, have gone 0-10-1 O/U, crushing the total by 14ppg in the 10 wins. I see the same scenario for game 3 here, as the total has come up short by 15 points in game 1 and 22 points in game 2. Make the play on the under.

The Golden St. Warriors are off a physical and emotional series vs the Oklahoma City Thunder, and escaped with a game 7 win at home, for a 4-3 series win, keeping their hopes alive for a repeat. Cleveland was the victim in the finals to this same Golden St. team a year ago, and looks to get revenge this season. One thing has been particularly fluid over the past few years, and that is Golden St. does not score up to their capacity at home in the playoffs, and Cleveland doesn't score to their capacity on the road in the playoffs. The Warriors are 6-22 O/U in their last 28 home playoff games, where they have averaged 104.5ppg and allowed 96.3ppg, or a total average of 200.8ppg. Over that same period, the Warriors have averaged 109ppg and allowed 98.9ppg or 208.9ppg. The problem is the odds makers have not adjusted, as the totals have come in an average of -9.17ppg in these 28 games. Cleveland is 4-11-2 O/U in the playoffs, on the road since the return of LeBron James. The Cavs have had 2 impressive offensive games among the 17 played scoring 113, and 121. the problem is the consensus shows that the other 15 games has left them at 103 points or less, with 12 of those 15 failing to see the Cavs top the 100 point mark. These numbers are despite the fact that 3 of the Warriors game went to OT, as well as 2 for the Cavs, and we still see a much lower average. Make the play on the under.

The Golden St. Warriors and the Oklahoma City Thunder have reached a decisive game 7, with the winner squaring off against the Cleveland Cavs. This has been a series with somewhat of an up tempo, but with that being said, 4 of the 6 games have played out under the total, and I think defense is going to be the calling card tonight, with an intense battle. The Thunder have shot 45% or better in just 1 game in the series, and Golden St. just twice. Playoff games totals when both teams shoot under 45% have gone 80-291-4 O/U, and just 20-35-1 O/U when the total is greater than 210, and just 1 of the teams shoots over 45%. So far in the 6 games played in this series, both teams have not shot over 45% in the same game. Series game #7 over the last 12 years have seen the under prevail at 60%. Golden St. has played to a 6-21 O/U mark in their last 27 home playoff games, and ith the intensity up for a game 7, look for this one to fall shy of the total. Make the play on the under.

The Oklahoma City Thunder made quick work of the Golden St. Warriors in game`s 3 4 at home. They have taken a commanding lead in the series of 3-1. They seemed to score at will on a defenseless Golden St. team, but that has been their mojo since starting the San Antonio series, where the Thunder have averaged 114.2ppg at home. The road has been a much different place for their offense over the same period, generating just 96.8ppg. The appearances at the line are a good part of the reason, as they have converted an average of 26 free throws a game at home, vs just 18 on the road. The Warriors have well been noted for explosive offense themselves, but they are off a pair of losses, and have not dropped 3 straight games since November of 2013. They have bowed their back after 2 losses, where they have allowed 94.8ppg in 16 games preventing a 3rd straight loss. Golden St. is 5-21 O/U in their last 26 home playoff games, averaging under the total by 10ppg in the 26. this game also fits a situation which is 30-79 O/U in the playoffs. Make the play on the under.

he Toronto Raptors were left for dead after the first 2 games of this series, falling behind 2-0. Cleveland had won 10 straight playoff games, and looked to be no match for any Eastern Conference opponent. Toronto was desperate in game 3, and they are going to live and die by the performances of Lowry, and DeRozen. The pair of guards lifted the Raptors, as well as their own confidence, with a pair of series changing wins in game's 3, and 4, to even the series 2-2, as we head back to Cleveland. DeRozen and Lowry have been a mess in the playoffs, combining to shoot 98-279 (.351), over 8 road games, and an even worse 14-63 (.222), from deep in the 8 roadies. The pair went off in the 2 home games, and I think the mindset vs what it was in the first 2 games at Cleveland is in a much better place. Cleveland was hitting an unsustainable percentage of their 3's, and it all came crumbling down in Toronto. Toronto gambled, and shut down the interior, begging the Cavs to take open 3's, and it worked, as the Cavs heaved up 82 in the two games in Toronto going just 27-82 (.329), but more importantly, the 82 shots from deep were more than 50% of their total shots, while they connected on over 50% from all other shots. While that is basically a wash, 3 vs 2, it set up Toronto for some fast break points off the missed 3's, and that changed the game. Cleveland will be putting a lot more shots up inside the arc tonight, and overall, this game is going to likely be the highest scoring game of the series to date. Cleveland has gone for an average of better than 100ppg in their 6 home in the playoffs. The Raptors shot 50% or better for the first time since April 13th vs the Nets, and after shooting 50% or better this season they have averaged 101.1ppg.They have now shot better than 45.5% in consecutive games, and after doing so this season they have averaged 103.5ppg, and 106.8ppg since the first of the year as the guards are confidence oriented as we have seen over and over.  Make the play on the over.

The Cleveland Cavs lit it up in game 1 shooting over 55% for the game, and cruising to an easy win, to go up 1-0 in the series. It was a tough pill to swallow for Toronto, but they were off a pair of 7 game series thrillers, and came in on 1 day rest, vs a Cavs team that had 9 days to rest and prepare. Cleveland's 55.2% shooting was the first time in their 9 playoff games they got over the 50.0% mark, and I expect a Toronto defense, that has been rock solid down the stretch to rebound in game 2. I say that because Toronto had not allowed any team to shoot 50% or better since March 25th.The problem for the Raptors is the fact that they have not topped 47% in their last 16 games, shooting in the 30s in 5 of them. Taken that into account, we look at the slow pace of game 1 that saw just 150 shots attempted in total. If we put a buffer in and look at all NBA games played where both teams attempt less than 160 field goals, the under is 58.8% over 22,000+ games! If we look at just games where the total was similar from greater than 194 to less than 203 we get 62.6% to the under. (64.4% in the playoffs). Finally, playoff games with a line of -10 or more for the home favorite, playing to a total of greater than 188, and off an under in the previous game. is 6-22 O/U, including 0-11 O/U since 2012. Make the play on the under.

The Oklahoma City Thunder came back from a 13 point halftime deficit to beat the Golden St. Warriors 108-102 in game 1 of the Western Conference Final. They did that despite Westbrook and Durant combining to shoot just 17-51 at 33%. One of the main reasons they did, was the fact that Golden St. went 6-23 in the 4th quarter. Despite all that poor shooting, the game still managed 210 points. So what happens now? Golden St. is 5-20 O/U in their last 25 playoff games, and the poor shooting by Oklahoma City (43.8%), isn't out of line with 11 Warrior playoff games this season, that has seen opponents shoot 400-979 (.408). The Thunder are allowing 456-1017 (.448), against them in the playoffs. here is the gamble. What happens when you have a playoff game with a total of 220 or higher, and neither team shoots 50%? The under is 4-24 O/U. That goes to 0-22 O/U if neither team shoots 49%. These games fail to cover the total by -27.95ppg! basically what this is saying is if neither team shoots 49%+ for the game, the total is going under. The fact is, Golden St. has allowed an opponent to shoot 49% or better just 8 times all season, and none of those have occurred in the last 15 games. The Thunder has allowed just 15 opponents to shoot better than 49% this season, so combining the two, there have been just 23 incidents of a team shooting greater than 49% against both these teams, in 187 games played or 12.2% of the time. That sounds great, but both these teams have tremendous offenses, and all those games were not against the offense they will see here. Well consider this. Golden St. played 18 games this season vs a team better than .600, and none of those teams shot 49% or better! Make the play on the under.

The Cleveland Cavs have been sizzling beyond the arc, and that may have them poised to jack up a lot of them as they have been doing throughout the playoffs. The problem is, those numbers simply can't continue, and with 9 days off, that could in itself be problematic. Home favorites in the playoffs off of more than 4 days rest shoot just 33.6% from deep in the 3rd round. Toronto has made strides defensively, not allowing any team to score more than 103 points against them in their last 23 games. The defense over the period has allowed just 94.7ppg. Home favorites of 10 or more points, and playing to a total of greater than 188 are 16-39 O/U, and I see this one following suit. Make the play on the under.

The Oklahoma City Thunder look to close out the San Antonio Spurs at home in game 6. They did the unthinkable, and have beaten San Antonio twice on the road. San Antonio was 42-1 SU coming into this series at home on the season. The Spurs have struggled shooting the ball, and have been blitzed off the glass, and you can be sure their signature defense is going to be 100% focused tonight. The Spurs road playoff total points scored since 2002 is 191.3ppg, and the under is 54-41-3 ATS in the 98 games. Just 1 team has managed to top the 100 point mark in this series. Oklahoma City is considered by most to be an offensive team, but that has not been the case in the playoffs. The Thunder games averaged 209.2ppg this season, but so far just 194.6ppg in the playoffs, a 14.6ppg differential. This game fits a situation that is 29-79 O/U in the playoffs. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 241-150 ATS, and the play is on the under.

The Toronto Raptors have been led to the playoffs by their guards, Demar DeRozen, and Kyle Lowry. There is one problem, they have each been ineffective over a long period of playoff games. DeRozen in 19 games, is 130-357 (.364), and Lowry in 32 playoff games is 117-340 (.344). The pair has also been off the mark from deep, teaming to be 46-176 (.261). Why would that change tonight, as the pressure and mental pressure soars upward? The Raptors have had to turn to defense and have not allowed a team to shoot 48% or better against them since March 25th! The problem is they have not shot even 45% in their last 10 playoff games! That bears significance to Miami, because when the Heat have held opponents to less than 45% shooting this season, they are 13-42 O/U, with 3 of 13 overs due to overtime, so effectively 10-42 O/U. When Miami shoots less than 45%, and the total has been less than 200 this season, they are 2-24 O/U, including 0-8 O/U if the total is 191 or less (an average of 188 which is where we are tonight), beating said total by 7.31ppg to the under. While there is some inherent danger of projecting off what has been, to happen again, in a single event, the use of such stats gives you a feel for where the value lies, and while anything can happen in a single game, I like my position here. That position is enhanced by a playoff situation which is 29-78 O/U as well, and is 1-3 O/U this year so far. Make the play on the under.

Wednesday May 4th, 2016

  Game of the Month Total Play · Over   [513] Atlanta Hawks vs. [514] Cleveland Cavaliers  
 Mr. East   Wed May 4th, 2016 8:05pm EDT   Win/Loss Undecided

Expert Preview: MREAST NBA WEDNESDAY GAME OF THE MONTHExpert Analysis: The Cleveland Cavs will look to take a 2-0 series lead in their best of 7 series vs the Atlanta Hawks. Game 1 managed to go over the total, despite Kevin Love shooting 4-17, and Lebron James getting to the line just 1 time, his 3rd lowest total in his 13 year NBA playoffs career. The Hawks are almost certain to get more than the 1 shot for sharp shooter Kyle Korver, as he was 0-1 from the field in game 1. These teams have certainly played a lot of high scoring games since 1996, with 28 of the 41 eclipsing the total. The Cavs have scored 100 in 15 straight games, and are averaging 108.5ppg in their last 15 at home as well, never producing less than 99. The odds makers, despite the total coming close to the closing total for game 1, have lowered the total 3.5 points for game 2. The pace says no. There were 170 shots attempted along with 65 from deep, and in the NBA playoffs, games with that many shots, and attempted 3`s have averaged playing to a total of 206.4ppg, so there is still significant room here. Cleveland is 9-0 SU vs Atlanta in the last 9 post-season meetings, averaging 110.7ppg in the last 6. Round 2 playoff games, in the 2nd game of the series, that saw the home team play under in game 1, are 20-3 O/U in game 2, beating the total by an average of 8.09ppg, including 17-2 O/U if the game 1 total was higher than the game 2 total, which is the case here. I also have a 19-0 O/U subset of the 20-3 O/U situation. My NBA playoff total of the month is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 39-15 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 98-41 ATS, and the play is on the over

The Golden St. Warriors will open the 2nd round without Stephen Curry. That didn't seem to make much difference in their last game as they rolled over Houston. Portland advanced, beating an injury plagued LA Clippers team. I think when people think of Golden St. they think offense, and perhaps rightly so, as the Warriors since May 1st of 2 years ago (2 years to the day), have averaged 111.4ppg at home in the regular season, and have allowed 99.3ppg. Those numbers change dramatically in the playoffs, where the under-estimated defense of the Warriors has carried the day. The same period as above has seen the Warriors at home, average just 101.0ppg in the playoffs, allowing 93.2ppg. They go from games averaging 210.5ppg, which would make this total look about right, to 194.2ppg in the playoffs. That is a 16ppg difference. Golden St. has allowed just 2 of their last 19 playoff opponents to top the 100 point mark! The defense is the best kept secret in the NBA! That has led this team to a 3-18 O/U mark in their last 21 home playoff games, including 1-12 O/U if the line is higher than -6. Make the play on the under.

The Miami Heat, after opening a 2-0 series lead over the Charlotte Hornets, have dropped 3 straight games, and face elimination in game 6 in Charlotte. The Heat have been unable to solve the Hornet's swarming defensive efforts, and have shot 42% or less in the last 3 games, after coming into game 3 having shot 42% or better in 14 of 15. The Heat are also turning the ball over way too much losing the turnover battle 45-24 in the 3 losses. Charlotte has been at their best defensively at home as a favorite, vs good teams, and it has led to a 0-9 O/U mark on the season when playing as a home favorite vs a team that has a winning percentage of greater than .530. The average points scored in these games is 178.7ppg. Miami has really struggled offensively in the opposite role, as a road dog. Miami is 3-15 O/U on the season as a road dog to a total of less than 202. The total points scored in those games has been 188.4ppg. I also have a playoff situation based in part on a closeout game, off of a series of under games prior. That situation is 10-48 O/U, and active tonight as well, and has beaten the total offered by 11.55ppg in the 58 previous contests. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 47-10 ATS, and the play is on the under.

The Atlanta Hawks opened up a 2-0 lead in their first round series with Boston. The shooting in this series for the most part has been awful with Boston shooting 38.6% and 27.2% from deep, and Atlanta just 40.6% and just 30% from deep. The series has seen 3 of the 4 games go under the total, but this one will be different. The odds makers have been forced to hold the total down, especially after last game which went under, despite going to overtime. the fact is, this has been a race horse paced series. There has been an average of 180 shots, 66 from deep. Past games that show an average of over 170 shots, and more than 61 three's have played over 12 of 16 times, and the pace warranted a total of 207, but they scored 216 on average. Make the play on the over.

While this series has produced less than 80 points in 2 games for Dallas in this series, the result was not a half-court slowdown type of game, that would often lead to those numbers, it has been anomalous poor shooting that has created the numbers. This in itself adds value, to what should be an extremely high scoring game 5. It is also being played to a total that has been held down by the "false" results. let's take a deep look at what has happened here. These teams are averaging 164 shots per game, 48 attempted 3 pointers, and 53 free throw attempts. let's break those numbers down historically in the NBA playoffs.

1)  SHOT ATTEMPTS

AVG  164  (this series)

NBA playoff games with greater than 160 shot attempts have gone 225-187-5 O/U  54.6%, and 174-137-3 O/U with 164 or more attempted 55.9%

2)  THREE PT ATTEMPTS

AVG  48   (this series)

NBA playoff games with greater than 45 three point attempts are 236-204-6 ATS 53.6% O/U

3)  THREE PT FG MADE:

AVG  16 (this series)

NBA playoff games with more than 15 made 3pt FG's are 216-121-6  O/U  64.1% and 391-281-12 O/U 58.2% if 12 or more are made.

4) FREE THROW ATTEMPTS:

AVG  53  (this series)

NBA playoff games with 50 or more free throws attempted are 364-239-9 O/U  60.4%  O/U

FINALLY:

If one of the 4 above things happens, the OVER becomes likely in and of itself, and all 4 are taken from a lower number than the average of this series!

If FG attempts are greater than 160 (164 avg this series), and made 3's are 12 or more (16 avg this series), and free throw attempts are 50 or more(53 avg this series0, we get an off the charts 108-43 O/U result in past playoff games 71.5%. The average total in those games was 203.8ppg, and points scored were 216.7ppg. That is a 13ppg margin using numbers that are 25% less than the average produced in this series so far. The bottom line is the pace of the games has proven this total very worthy with lots of value. My NBA PLAYOFF TOTAL OF THE YEAR IS ON THE OVER.

This game fits a situation which is 277-172 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 238-150 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 276-158 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 50-19 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 50-19 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This series was projected to be up and down the court, and the game 1 total projected just that with a closing total of 225. That eroded after a lackluster game 1 performance that saw the total come up very short. Game 2 saw odds makers shave 14 points off the total and the game went over. Now they have bumped the total by 4 points or so, as the series heads to Houston. The pace however remains high octane with an average of 167.5 shots per game, despite a lot of free throws (60 per game). Both teams have put up a total of 48 from long range. Those numbers based on the team's average percentage, combined with defensive stats of their opponent, would show a true total of 216.5ppg, so there is a couple of points worth of line value. The true value comes from the home vs road numbers of these teams, and without getting into great detail, they suggest an additional 4.5 points, offering a clear value on over the total. That combined with a propensity of past playoff games that saw a same series decline in the closing total of 10 points or more from game 1 to game 3 (venue change), to play well over 60% to the over, cements the deal. Make the play on the over.

From game 1:

The Miami Heat really struggled on offense for much of the season. They were dependent on a strong defense to carry the load. It was time for a change, and the Heat turned up the tempo along about February 8th. prior to that date through 52 games, the Heat were 16-35 O/U, averaging 95.9ppg and allowing 95.9ppg. That was the turning point as over their last 30 games they scored 107.2ppg, allowing 102.7ppg. Charlotte was similar from that exact same date, averaging 101ppg through 2/7 and 106.3ppg from that point on. The total has not caught up to these teams yet.

Nothing has changed in my estimation, as game 1 went over, and the total remains static. The pace of game 1 was slowed by free throws, which saw 58 attempted, but that stops the clock and allows points to be scored. despite a blowout, which typically lowers scoring, the game went well over the total. Playoff games immediately following a team that scored more than 110 points at home playing the same team at home again are 31-17 O/U, including 10-4 O/U in round 1. Looking for this one to once again top the 200 point, in fact my model projects 206.5 points, so plenty of value remains. Make the play on the over.

This total has come down a full 7 points or so vs the opener, that played out a lot more low scoring than expected. It has forced the odds makers hands, and they have made an adjustment, but is it enough? No team wants to try and play a fast full court game in the playoffs against Golden St. Golden St. is also a much better defensive team than they get credit for. Looking back at playoff games originating in the 2013 season, played at Golden St., the Warriors are 2-13 O/U. They are a sexy over play by the public, because they are thought of as a scoring machine, but that has not been true in the playoffs. Since the opening of the 2013 season, Golden St. has averaged 111.4ppg at home, but just 101.9ppg in the playoffs. They allow just 93.3ppg in the playoffs compared to 99.3ppg in the regular season. Combined they are 15.5ppg lower scoring in the post-season at home, so the 7 point adjustment may look huge, but it is far from enough. I also have a situation where the Warriors are 2-17 O/U at home in all playoff games. There is another situation that qualifies here that is 99-147 O/U in the regular season, including 2-10 O/U in the playoffs. Make the play on the under.

Whenever you have a 1,2, or 3 seed in the first round playing in the NBA playoffs at home, to a line of -10 or more, the upset simply does not occur. These teams are 44-0 SU. Taking the same teams however, seeded 1,2, or 3, playing at home as a 10 or more point favorite in the first round to a total of 189-209.5, the under is 18-2 ATS, covering by just about 8ppg. Make the play on the under.