This game is going to be played in sustained winds, with gusts up to 45 MPH during the entire game. The winds will be blowing diagonally across the field, so no edge at either end of the field. I like the under.

The Baltimore Ravens have been turning the ball over at a maddening rate. They made 8 turnovers over a 3 game stretch but have not turned the ball over in their last 2 games. A team not turning the ball over in 2 straight games is a slight winner at 53.3% ATS. The Ravens are playing defense again as they have allowed just 13ppg in their last 3 contests. Minnesota is 4-4 on the season. The Viking offense has generated just 20.1ppg over their last 5 contests. This total looks too high, and there are strong total situations on this game being much lower scoring than projected. Make the play under the total.

The Dallas Cowboys will host the Arizona Cardinals on Monday Night Football. It is well documented that the Dallas offense is elite, their defense is one of the worst in the NFL. The Cowboy's have allowed 37 or more points in 3 games, while the offense has produced 40 or more 3 times. This game fits a situation that involve high totals, and a couple other things. That situation is active for this game and it is 73-40-3 to the over. Make the play on the over.

There aren't a lot of people that realize the Seattle Seahawks are one of the best defensive teams in the NFL. The Seahawks have allowed 20or fewer points in all but one of their 7 games. They should have a good game plan coming off their bye. It looks like Jayden Daniels will be back for this came for the Commanders. The Commanders offense has scored more than 27 points just 1 time in 8 games. This will be the highest total all season that Seattle has played to, and I think their defense responds. Make the play under the total.

The Houston Texans have a top 5 defense and the Texans are allowing just 15ppg. Their problem is they have failed to score 20 or more points in 4 of their 6 games. The same issues are haunting the Niners as they have been held in check as they have scored 21 or fewer points in 5 of their 7 games. These teams both have the edge when their defenses are on the field. This game also fits a situation that is 106-69 to the under. I will make the play under the total.

This game is a weather play. Both defenses are good at defending, and the weather is going to slow these teams down. There is rain expected, but the bigger issue is wind gusts expected 30 MPH or greater. Make the play on the under.

The LA Rams will play in Baltimore vs. the Ravens. Baltimore has long had a great defense as it has been one of the long term trademarks of the team. This season has been nothing like that as the Ravens have allowed 119 points in their last 3 games combined. It puts them in a group of NFL teams that over the years has seen a team allow 115 or more points over their last 3 games and playing to a total of less than 52. They are 23-51 OU over a 36 year period. Make the play under the total.

This will be a 9:30am EDT game with Minnesota facing the Cleveland Browns. This will be the 2nd straight game for the Vikings off the mainland. They certainly have an edge after playing in Ireland last week and staying over in London all week. The Browns are finally benching Joe Flacco after a pair of INT`s last week. Dillon Gabriel will get the start and try and spark the Brown`s offense. This plays into a total situation that has been 151-89 O/U. Make the play over the total.

The Military Academies have run the triple option, or version of it for decades. It is a hard offense to defend, because it takes a lot of discipline. That isn't the case when it's Military teams playing each other. These teams practice against it all season, and their entire college careers. When a game is between Academies the total has been 44-12-1 to the under.I like the under in this one.

The Chicago Bears defense is going to be exploited by Geno Smith this week. The Bears are missing a LB and 2 players in their secondary, and the backups are not very good. It will also help that the bears have not been good getting pressure on the QB. Caleb Williams threw 4 TD's last week and all of them came from outside the 10 yard line. He will have more opportunities this week. Both of these teams have been awful defending the pass. These teams have averaged allowing 56ppg combined. I like the over.

This game features a pair of teams that are very banged up. The Niners will likely be without Brock Purdy for this one, and I think Daniel Jones will be looking to complete short passes, and not have time to look long. I think both teams want to limit plays and mistakes in this game, and run the ball a lot. This game fits a situation on certain divisional home favorites that is 226-160-4 to the under. Make the play under the total.

This game is strictly a situational one, as the Bears fit in a 34-3 ATS situation. The play is under the total.

A lot will take a look at this and say the total looks too high based on Nevada averaging less than 15ppg. They have shown signs of being able to move the ball. Nevada also looks bad as they have 7 turnovers in 3 games, and since one of their games was against Penn St., it looks a lot worse that it actually is. Western Kentucky has a good offense, but a horrible defense leading to all 3 of their games playing in the 60s and 3 overs. I like an encore. Make the play on the over.

These teams have both struggled on offense as they combine to average just 35 points a game between them. Marshall is averaging 4.8 yards per play through 3 games, and Middle Tennessee an even worse 3.8 yards per play. Neither team defends the pass well, but between them they average fewer than 300 yards a game. This total looks to be off considerably and I`ll make the play on the under. Marshall is 9-2 to the under when playing on 6 days of rest or fewer on the road. I like the under in this one.

This game is one of my top total situations. There are several for this game, but this is the best.This game fits a situation that is a sizzling 150-77-2 to the under. Make the play under the total.

There are a lot of injuries for this game, and picking a side just seems highly risky. One thing that came out of the opener for San Francisco is they ran 71 plays. It was a similar look for New Orleans who ran off 68 plays. Both these teams provided fast offensive tendencies, and history is also siding with a lot of points scored for this one. The injuries have driven the total down by 4 full points. This game fits an over the total situation based on rapid line changes. There is too much money in the arena here, not necessarily tied into expectations or history as I have a 78-37 over situation active here. Make the play over the total.

The UMass Minutemen joined the FBS back in 2012. They have never won more than 4 games, and has averaged 2 wins a season. Check that against. Iowa who has had 14 straight winning seasons along with 8 or more wins for 9 straight seasons(not counting the covid season back in 2020). This is my go to NCAAF total wager as this game fits a totals situation that is 105-50-2 to the OVER. That is better than 2/1 odds to win on 155 previous games fitting this situation. Make the play OVER the total.

It is week 1 in the NFL and I have found that long term betting situations perform much better than a last year's stat base, incorporating the draft, free agent movement, etc.). There is a high level of variance making those choices. This game has a great game 1 situation that is also very simple. Play the under in week 1 in a game with a road favorite. This has been 95-60-5 to the under since 1995. Make the play on the under.

There are a lot of historic edges for NFL games, especially in week 1. The Steelers under Mike Tomlin have been a defensive team almost throughout his tenure here. The angle is a solid and long term one. When the Steelers play on the road to a total of less than or equal to 49 they are 49-24 to the under in the last 73 occurrences. Make the play under the total.

It is week 1 in the NFL and I have found that long term betting situations perform much better than a last year's stat base, incorporating the draft, free agent movement, etc.). There is a high level of variance making those choices. This game has a great game 1 situation that is also very simple. Play the under in week 1 in a game with a road favorite. This has been 95-60-5 to the under since 1995. Make the play on the under.

It is week 1 in the NFL and I have found that long term betting situations perform much better than a last year's stat base, incorporating the draft, free agent movement, etc.). There is a high level of variance making those choices. This game has a great game 1 situation that is also very simple. Play the under in week 1 in a game with a road favorite. This has been 95-60-5 to the under since 1995. Make the play on the under.

It is week 1 in the NFL and I have found that long term betting situations perform much better than a last year`s stat base, incorporating the draft, free agent movement, etc.). There is a high level of variance making those choices. This game has a great game 1 situation that is also very simple. Play the under in week 1 in a game with a road favorite. This has been 95-60-5 to the under since 1995. Make the play on the under.

Early season data tends to show a lot of bias, and much slimmer margin`s for error. I like to rely on situations that have proven profitable in the early going. Since the start of the 2010 season there is a great situation that plays on high point spreads and low totals. A team posted as a -30 or more favorite to a total of

Last week West Virginia destroyed Robert Morris 45-3. They dominated on the ground as they gained 393 yards on 53 carries. That sets the stage for a ground attack by West Virginia in week 2. Any team that rushes for 315 or more yards and are less than a -10 point favorite to a total that is less than 65 is 587-415-28 to the under. Make the play under the total.

Early season data tends to show a lot of bias, and much slimmer margin`s for error. I like to rely on situations that have proven profitable in the early going. This game fits my best total situation, that has provided substantial profit. Duke fits in a situation that is 112-39-12 to the UNDER. Make this play on the under.

There is a connection to huge point spreads and low totals, that has a long history of being a winner. This game qualifies for a well documented result that has gone 101-47-2 to the over in the last 150 games(68.2%). This applies playing over on the Michigan/New Mexico game.

Here we go, as week 1 in NCAAF is upon us. There is a lot of variance early in the season from expectations, and actual results. I tend to go with some proven historic situations, that have been highly predictive over the years. This game fits a situation that is based on certain prohibitive favorites, to lower type totals. These games have gone 62-19 ATS since 2009. Make the play over the total.

The Texas Rangers are 26-3 to the under at home when the money line is -100 to -150. Make the play on the under.

I am traveling today, and there will be no write ups. The play is on the over.

I am traveling today, and there will be no write ups. The play is on the under.

I am traveling today, and there will be no write ups. The play is on the under

I am traveling today, and there will be no write ups. The play is on the over.

The Oklahoma St. Cowboys have one of the worst pass defenses in the country. The Cowboys are allowing 8.2 yards per pass attempt. The elite Colorado passing attack is averaging 8.4 yards per passing attempt. The best of this Oklahoma St. team is their passing offense which averages 7.4 yards per pass attempt. The Buffaloes are allowing 7.4 yards per pass attempt, and both these teams love to throw the ball. They combine for an average of 76 passes per game, and with the way this match up stacks up as strength vs. weakness on both sides, I would expect to see 85+ passing attempts in this game, with a lot of success. Make the play over the total.

This game fits a total situation that is 107-61 ATS. Make the play under the total.

The LA Chargers have not played any game this season where both teams combined to score more than 44 points. The Chargers elite defense has allowed just 13.1ppg. The Chargers 9 games have averaged a combined 33.8 total points on the season. This total is 14 points greater than that. The Bengals have a good offense, but they have faced mostly bad or below average defensive teams. The Bengals have faced 6 opponents that average ranking #25 in yards per pay allowed. They have faced 4 teams that rank in the top half of the league in defensive yards per play and they have averaged fewer than 25ppg. I like the under in this one.

The San Francisco 49ers defense is no longer elite as it has been over the past few seasons. The Niners held 10 of their first 13 opponents to fewer than 20 points last season, but since then they have faced 11 teams and 10 of them have gotten to 20 or more. These teams put up 60 total points in their game in Seattle earlier in the season. Seattle has put up 20 or more points in 8 of their 9 games this season. Seattle has allowed just shy of 30ppg in their last 6 this season. I like over the total in this one.

South Carolina has one of the best defenses in the country at #6 in fewest yards per play by their opponents. Only the elite offenses of LSU, Alabama, and Ole Miss had any success. Those 3 teams averaged 30ppg, well below their averages. Mediocre or average offenses have struggled against this defense. Their other 6 opponents have averaged 11.3ppg against them. The Missouri offense ranks #94 and will struggle to get to 10 points. Missouri has a good defense and the SC offense is very average. I like the under.

he Tulane football program has risen from the ashes. The Green Wave is 8- on the season, and is coming off two consecutive seasons of 11 and 12 wins. They are 8-2 on the season and a third straight 10+ in season is well in reach. This is a team that won 10 or more games just 1 other time over their past 33 seasons. Tulane has an explosive offense that has averaged 44.6ppg in their last 7 contests. Navy is 7-2 on the season, but the losses have all come in their last 3 games. Navy has struggled to defend against elite offensive teams, as they allowed 51 to Notre Dame and 44 to Memphis. The Tulane defense is strong, especially vs. the pass where they rank #21 in the nation in opponents yards per pass attempt. Their run defense has been mediocre and ranks #76 in the country in stopping the run. That means the best part of their defense won't come into play here, as Navy is going to run the ball on most dons, and should be able to score a decent amount of points. I like the over.

Miami has not gotten Tyreke Hill up to the level of last season, even with Tua back at QB. The Rams do a great job with WR's but they really struggle guarding tight ends, and screen passes. That may be good for Tua, as those plays generally get the ball out quickly, and that is where success is to be found against the Rams. This game also fits a total situation that has been 107-65 ATS, based on Monday Night games, and a couple other things. Make the play over the total.

The Saints have been awful on defense. They’ve struggled mightily against the run, giving up 225 rushing yards to Denver and another 277 rushing yards and four touchdowns to Tampa Bay. They even lost to a Carolina Panthers team led by quarterback Bryce Young, which shows how bad the defense has been. The Falcons and Kirk Cousins have averaged 30.3ppg on the road this season. Add in a total situation that has been 96-63 to the over, and I like this one to go over the total.

The Memphis Tigers come into this game with a record of 7-2 on the season. They will take on the Rice Owls who was just an upset winner vs, Navy. Memphis has proven through the season that they can hold down a bad offense. Memphis allowed 17 to Troy, 122 to Florida St., 7 to Middle Tennessee, 3 to S. Fla., and 0 to FCS Northern Arizona. Rice has little offense as they average just 4.9 yards per play, which ranks #110 in the country. Rice does have a better than average defense that ranks #31 allowing just 4.9 yards per play.The 4 FBS teams mentioned above average ranking #104 on offense and Rice is #110, so I don`t expect much from the rice offense, but I also think that Rice has a good enough defense to keep Memphis from going off. Make the play under the total.

This game is strictly a situational play. The Rams have a situation in which they have played 17-1-3 to the under. Make the play under the total.

he Tennessee Titans look like they will have Will Levis back at QB this week. He has been taking reps for the starters all week. While that sounds like good news for the Titans it is not. Mason Rudolph actually has the better numbers. The Titans have put up 17 or fewer points in all but one game this season. Jacoby Brissett will be at QB if Maye can't get cleared from concussion protocal. That is also a downgrade. Neww England has managed just 15.5ppg on the season, and with negatives at both QB positions, and already poor offenses, I like the under. I will side with the under in this one.

UConn has gotten off to a 5-3 start and have a chance to become Bowl eligible tonight vs. Georgia St. at home. The Huskies have some issues on offense. They can't get the ball in the hands of their best offensive player R Skylar Bell. Since starting QB Joe Fagnano went down with a season ending injury the offense has done little, and Bell not part of it. Bell has just 7 catches the last 3 games for 81 yards. UConn has scored fewer points than their previous game for 4 straight games now. Defensively they are very good. They allowed 33ppg to the 3 power4 conference teams on their schedule and 11.6ppg in all other contests. They are limited in FG's taken as they are 2-6 from 40+ yards out or more. QB Zach Gibson has been better at QB, but the Panthers even with the improvement in the passing game has scored 0ppg in their last 3, and UConn is better defensively than all those teams. I like the under.

The New Orleans Saints look like they will once again be without Derek Carr. That means more of Spencer Rattler. Look for a lot of attempts by Rattler for short safe passes to running backs, but the Chargers have the #1 success rate against opposing running backs. The Saints after opening the season scoring 91 points in their first  games have no scored just 86 in their last 5. The Chargers don't score, but their defense seems to keep them in every game as they have yet to allow any of their 6 opponents to score more than 0, and their season average is 13.8ppg against them. None of the Chargers 6 games have seen both teams combine to get to 40 total points, and I don't think this is the week to see that number topped. Make the play under the total.

This game fits a long term total situation that is 685-522-21 to the under. That is a 1200+ game situation that connects on just about 57% of all bets. Make the play under the total.

This is a big game in Tampa Bay as the Atlanta Falcons will travel to take on the Bucs. Both these teams sit on top of the NFL South at 4-3. The Tampa Bay season took a big blow when they lost their top 2 receivers Evans, and Godwin. This will seriously downgrade the Tampa Bay offense, and Baker Mayfield's option is setting up a lot of screen passes, but that is the Falcon's strength on defense. Mayfield will have his work cut out for him. There is a lot at stake as the winner improves their playoff chances by about 40% vs. the loser. This could lead to a conservative defensive struggle, with Tampa Bay slowing the game down. I like the under.

We are getting to the time of year where the weather in Buffalo starts to be a factor. That will not be the case this week as it will be sunny, calm, and dry with a high temperature of 66 degrees is forecast. The Bills have scored 30+ points in 10 of their last 16 home games. The Bills offense has scored a total of 53 points in 3 straight road games, but have topped that considerably at home, here they have scored 30+ in both. This game also fits a situation that is 96-57 to the over. I like over the total in this one.

Miami comes into this game at 6-0 to start the season and the Hurricanes potent offense has scored 38 or more points in all 6 games. Miami is averaging 47.7ppg. The Hurricanes allowed just 41 total points in their first 4 games against some bad offensive teams, but they are off of games vs. California and Virginia Tech where they allowed 34, and 38 points. Louisville certainly has a strong offense at 36.2ppg. This game has all the makings of a shootout. The Miami attack is averaging an elite 8.1 yards per play which is # in the nation behind Navy, while the Cardinals are producing 6.9 yards per play which ranks 16th in the country. Both offenses will have a decided advantage hen they have the ball. Make the play over the total.

The NY Jets have already fired their coach, as they host the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football. Aaron Rodgers has taken a beating the last 2 games, as he continues to struggle vs. the blitz. The last 2 games he has averaged fewer than 4 yards per pass play. The Vikings, and Broncos rank #1 and #3 in terms of the highest blitzing team. They average blitzing 50% of the time. This week, a shorthanded Buffalo defense that blitzed less than 30 other NFL teams. They will be missing Von Miller and Ed Oliver again. I like over the total in this one.

This game fits a total situation that is 412-354-31 to the under (53.8% on a huge sample size of over 850 games). There is also a subset of that which is 296-227-19 (56.6%). Make the play under the total.

This game fits a situation that loves the over. Play over the total in week 5 if a team is averaging ewer than 16ppg and on the road vs. a team that has at least 1 win. This is 55-28-1 ATS covering 66.1% of the time. Make the play over the total.

This game fits a situation that loves the over. Play over the total in week 5 if a team is averaging ewer than 16ppg and on the road vs. a team that has at least 1 win. This is 55-28-1 ATS covering 66.1% of the time. Make the play over the total.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have a quandary. Trevor Lawrence has been a big play passer, but his short passing and ranks 3rd worst in short passing accuracy. At the same time he has 9 passes of 20 or more air yards which is first in the NFL. The Jags have not done much after the catch but with TE Evan Engram back this week, he ranked 2nd out of all TE`s. Anthony Richardson amazingly has 0 yards passing vs. the blitz, but Jacksonville is a team that blitzes very little. They don`t blitz over 80% of the time. The Jaguars defense is not healthy and they are giving up 27.3ppg on the season. The Colts put up 27 on the Steelers last week, and should move the ball in this game. Make the play over the total.

When I saw the total for this game I did a double take. Both of these teams are horrible on offense and decent on defense. Hawaii games are averaging 41ppg on the season and all 4 of their games have played under the total. San Diego St. games are also averaging 41ppg. Their 3 games against FBS teams have all gone under and the Aztecs are averaging 10.3ppg against FBS opponents. Don't see this one getting here. Make the play under the total.

The Thursday Night NFL game will feature division rivals as Tampa Bay heads to Atlanta to take on the Falcons. The Falcons look like they had their best offensive game of the year last week when they scored a season high 26 points vs. New Orleans. Looking closer, the Falcons got a lucky win as they got a pick-6 and a score from a muffed punt. The offense generated very little. If you take those scores out, the Falcons offense is generating a woeful 15ppg. RB Bijan Robinson is going to play a huge role in this game, as the Bucs have struggled against the run all season, and this should help slow the game down. Thursday Night home favorites tend to do well as they are 112-85-6 ATS, but in division just 53-47 ATS. However, Thursday Night home favorites in division games are 62-38 ATS to the under, covering 62% of the time. I like the under.

Michigan is off to a 3-1 start, and the Wolverines have not scored more than 30 points in a game yet this season. They beat USC because of some long runs, as well as a defensive touchdown. Alex Orji does not look like a capable QB as he threw for a paltry 22 yards. Minnesota already has 2 shutouts on the season, and their defense is elite. They have a similar problem as Michigan, as the offense has not been good at all, and is way below average. Totals in the Big-10 of fewer than 36 points are 8-3 to the under. These teams pace their offense as slower than a normal paced game, which will limit possessions in this game. I like the under.

These teams have generally both been under teams, and I like the numbers in that regard tonight. Washington has allowed just 41 total points all season in 4 games at an elite 3.8 yards per play, and have generated 11 sacks on the season. Washington is 45-29-1 to the under since 2018, including 10-2 to a total of 47 or fewer points. These teams also fit in a historically good play on the under that has gone 84-37-7 to the under. Make the play under the total.

This game fits a total situation that is 35-2 ATS to the OVER. Make the play over the total.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have opened up on the road at 2-0 while scoring just 1 TD in the 2 games. The Steelers have always played conservatively on the road under coach Mike Tomlin once he got his feet on the ground. His team since the start of the 2012 season has played 63-30-3 to the under in road games, but at home they are 47-45-2 to the over. I don't think the running game will do the job vs. the Chargers. The Chargers have the lowest EPA in the NFL through two weeks defending the run. The Steelers are 3rd best against the run, so both teams are going to have to throw the ball a lot more if they want to win this game. I think this total is off because the game situation on both sides does not look friendly to running the ball with any great deal of success. I like the under.

UConn scored 63 points against Merrimack, which is the most points they have scored in their history. The Huskies are playing on offense at a much faster pace this season, and there games should turn out to be higher scoring. Duke is also doing the same. This is also backed by a 312-241 system to the over. Make the play over the total.

Florida St. was supposed to be a top 5 team coming into this season, but their 0-2 start has been hard to swallow for fans. The offense has averaged just 17ppg. Memphis has allowed just 17 points in their two games against subpar teams. I think the winner here scores somewhere in the 20s which would max out the total high point at 57. I don't see both teams able to push this one over the total, and with a game situation that is 119-71 to the under, I will make the play on this one under the total.

The Atlanta Falcons will surely have an upgrade at QB behind Kirk Cousins. Cousins will have the luxury of passing behind the 2nd best offensive line in terms of pass blocking in the league last season, and return all 5 this season. This will be a battle in the trenches as the Pittsburgh Steelers have what could be the best pass rushing unit in the NFL lead by TJ Watt and his 19 sacks from a year ago. I think they are a wash playing against each other. What I have eyes on is since 1996 a team that won 6,7, or 8 games last season are 168-199-3 to the under. The Steelers have played a lot of conservative football on the road as they are 45-18-2 to the under in their last 65 road games. Make the play under the total.

This is strictly a strong week 1 tendency. All NFL road favorites in week 1 of the season are 94-59-5 to the under (61.4%), since 1995. Make the play on the under. When the line is less than -4 that becomes 64-34-3 to the under (65.3%). Make the play under the total.

This is strictly a strong week 1 tendency. All NFL road favorites in week 1 of the season are 94-59-5 to the under (61.4%), since 1995. Make the play on the under. When the line is less than -4 that becomes 64-34-3 to the under (65.3%). Make the play under the total.

The Memphis Tigers easily won last week 40-0 over an FCS team in North Alabama. Memphis has upgraded their defensive coordinator, and played better than the statistical match up would indicate, but hard to have a good take away on a game that was not going to be competitive. The Memphis offense is pass oriented and they spent a lot of last week putting the ball in the air. Troy is not even close to what they were a year ago, and lost as a 7.5 point home favorite to Nevada. Perhaps more ominous is the weather for this game. While it will be sunny and in the 70s, the winds are expected to be sustained at 15 MPH with gusts to 25 MPH, so not ideal conditions for a team that likes to pass, and take shots downfield. That will force more running plays, which isn't what Memphis wants to do. I think the total is too high here, and will make the play under the total.

Miami, O. won the MAC Championship last season with a top notch defense that allowed fewer than 16 points per game. They might not match those numbers this season, but the defense is still going to be strong. Northwestern saw their offense held to 14 or fewer points 6 times last year. This is a team that ran one of the slowest offenses last season, and new Northwestern offensive coordinator Lujan comes over from South Dakota St. where he won 2 FCS Championships. His offense runs an even slower pace that Northwestern, so plays are going to be limited, and I think both defenses will be the best side of the ball. Make the play under the total.

This game fits a playoff total situation that is 199-107 to the under. Moreover playoff totals of 22230 or higher have been 21-32-1 to the under. The games on average beat the total by 5.97ppg. Make the play under the total.

There are a lot of factors playing into this selection. First and foremost the weather, and its impact on each team. There is a snowstorm in Baltimore today, which won't impact the play tomorrow, but what lies in its wake will. Game time temperatures tomorrow will be in the 20s. Moreover, the wind will be sustained between 15-20 MPH and gusting into the 30s.The Houston offense does not run the ball well, and the Baltimore defense excels vs. the run. Houston predicates a lot of what they do on the deep threat, but the weather, and a strong Baltimore pass defense is going to negate that. Baltimore runs the ball as well as any team in the league, and going against a soft Houston run defense, their offense is made for games like this. An abstract study on NFL games proved that a wind of 13 MPH or more sustained has more of a negative impact on the visiting team, especially if they are a dome team. The actual total in these windy conditions drop by just 2.05 ppg from the same teams playing in a dome, but the actual impact is 6.15ppg, and thus the under converts 65% of all games. Not much more needs to be said. Make the play on the under.

This is going to be a tough physical game. I get the feeling the Eagles are hiding an injury to Jalen Hurts. If not then for some reason he just fell off a cliff. His stats are hard to hide. Last year he threw 25 TDs and 6 INTs. This season 23 TDs and 15 INTs. He is running the ball at fewer than 4 yards per carry. His numbers are ugly. Tampa Bay has problems of their own. Baker Mayfield sat out of practice Thursday. He has compound injuries. He is dealing with a bad ankle, as well as injured ribs. His status is still up in the air, but my best guess he will play at some form below what he has done on the season. I think this game is going to be ugly, and the best bet is under the total.

The Detroit Lions have won just 1 playoff game in 66 years (1992). They are a tough team to play, but lost their TE last game to injury and he was an integral part of the offense. There are plenty of weapons left as the Lions still have 3 more receivers with 10 or more TDs. Will it be enough? The Rams arguably have been the best team in the NFL in the last 8 games at 7-1. The loss was in OT at Baltimore, the best team in the AFC. The Rams offense over their last 7 games is averaging 30ppg. It averaged 19.8ppg prior to that. The Lions put up 30+ points 9 times, and this game looks to me like the highest scoring game of the weekend. The Rams have played 6 of their last 7 to the over, with the only miss by 1/2 point. The Lions are 12-5 to the over at home with an average points scored in those games og 55.5ppg. Make the play over the total.

The Houston Texans made a giant leap forward making the playoffs. Houston in their previous 3 seasons managed a total of 11 wins, while posting 10 this season. A lot of that had to do with rookie QB C.J. Stroud, who had one of the best rookie seasons ever. He will face a Cleveland defense that is one of the best in the league, but with that being said the Browns defense did allow 20+ points in 11 of their games. There is one huge thing that stands out with this Browns defense. The Browns played 12 games on grass this season and allowed just 17.6ppg. It was an entirely different story when they played on artificial turf, where in their 5 games they allowed 30.2ppg, and also scored 25.6ppg. All 5 games went well over the total by an average of 16.7ppg. Joe Flacco has elevated the Browns offense as in his 5 starts they have averaged 28.8ppg. Games tend to average more points played on turf and indoors, as the elements don't come into play, or a retractable roof is open when the elements don't come into play. Make the play over the total.

This game fits a Bowl situation that is 24-4 to the over. Make the play over the total.

Florida State's level of attrition ahead of its upcoming New Year's Six appearance is eye-opening. The No. 5 Seminoles are set to be without at least 15 players on both sides of the ball in Saturday's Orange Bowl showdown against No. 6 Georgia, including seven players who earned All-ACC honors. Florida St. is down to their 3rd string QB in Brock Glenn, and he was 8/21 for 55 yards vs Louisville, and this will be a much bigger challenge. Florida St. is without their top 3 receivers tht combined to account for 53% of all receiving yards and 15 of 25 TDs. Additionally, the Seminoles have just 1 RB remaining with at least 50 carries. They have suffered key losses on defense as well. What could have been a gret game is now an exhibition game. I look for Georgia to be taking a look at young players for next season as well, and the line has grown so high the game is untouchable but the total should be a great opportunity. Make the play under the total.

With DJ James and Nehemiah Pritchett both expected to opt out of Saturday’s game against Maryland, the Tigers will be without a lot of experience against the Terrapins on the back side of the defense.  Maryland will be without its starting tight end (Corey Dyches), its best linebacker (Jaishawn Barham) and two elite defensive backs (Tarheeb Still and Corey Coley Jr.). Tagovailoa certainly is the biggest loss, but the core of what has been a very good Maryland defense will not be taking part in the bowl game. Overall the balance of who is playing tends to strongly suggest a much higher scoring game. Make the play over the total.

This game comes down to the best defense in the country that has already proven to stand up vs. better offenses than Ole Miss, while the Rebels were stopped cold by Alabama (10 points), and Georgia (17 points), and Penn St. has a better defense than both, but lacks an explosive offense. Stats and situations favor a low scoring game. Ole Miss is 89-56 to the under vs. a winning team since 1992! (16-6 lately). Make the play under the total.

A Bowl team that is no more than a 4 point dog (PK or favorite included), playing a December Bowl with a total greater than 45 but fewer than 66 points are 87-64-1 to the under. Make the play under the total.

Both QB's have opted out for this game, and it is likely going to be a game with stacked boxes and short passes, and this game fits a Bowl situation that is 40-13 to the under. Make the play on the under.

This game fits my best total which is 691-459 to the under including 23-13 in Bowl games. Make the play under the total.

Bowl games featuring a team on a 3 game or more streak to the over and playing as a favorite of 3 points or more and a total of fewer than 66 points are 13-40-2 to the under. Make the play under the total.

This line has really changed with the Tulane QB opting out, and the loss of their head coach. I think Tulane will be handing the ball off a lot, and allowing their ball hawking defense ranked 6th in forcing turnovers, play a field position clock running type game. Virginia Tech finished 6-6 with not a single signature win. The 3 toughest defenses they played saw the offense get completely shutdown. They managed 17 vs. Florida St., 16 vs. Rutgers, and 3 vs. Louisville. Tulane has played under in 10 of its last 11 games. Make the play under the total.

This game fits a bowl total situation that is 33-7-1 to the over. Make the play over the total.Make the play over the total.

Washington is allowing better than 40ppg in their last 3, and that make the over appear very attractive. However, a team that has allowed 115 or more points in their last 3 games are 53-28 to the under. Coach McVay is also 48-32 to the under when his team is posted as a favorite, and Washington is 97-71 to the under as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Make the play under the total.

This would normally be a trap game for Kansas City, but off of 2 losses they will show up today, and I think the Patriots will not find the end-zone in this game, and their defense will limit a Kansas City offense that is not nearly as good as we have seen in recent years. Backed by a situation that is 109-76 I will make the play under the total.

I wrote a lot about the advantages in this game, and it also fits a total situation that is 40-9-3 to the under. Make the play under the total.

I am sorry that there are no write ups this week, as I am traveling.

The play is on the UNDER

I am sorry that there are no write ups this week, as I am traveling.

The play is on the UNDER

The Philadelphia Eagles are in a great situation for this game to go over the total. The Eagles are 41-9 ATS to the over following a game where they scored fewer than 23 points as a dog. Make the play over the total.

One thing that history shows is when an NFL team has played at least 4 straight games that have gone under the total, the odds-makers compensate the total, and quite often the adjustment ahead of the anticipated public jumping on the bandwagon, turns the line in favor of the other direction which is over the total, especially when it is a below average total. A team off 4 straight games playing under the total that has a season long scoring margin of -4 points or more (Denver), and playing to a low total from 34 to 41 are 71-39-2 ATS to the over. Make the play over the total.

The New England Patriots certainly have offensive issues as they have averaged 14.1ppg on the season. The Patriots have scored 17 or fewer points in 8 of their last 9 games, so they have been consistently bad. The Giants put up 31 points last week, and that number is very deceiving. The Giants were held to 292 total yards and did their scoring because the Washington Commanders turned the ball over 6 times. The Giants in their previous 8 games averaged fewer than 11ppg. Coach Belichick has seen his team play 10-0 ATS to the under when failing to cover in 6 or 7 of their last 8 games. The Giants over the past 3 seasons are 12-1 ATS to the under as a home dog. The Giants have a long history of playing under vs. a team with a losing record as they are 106-78 ATS to the under. I like the under in this one.

Virginia Tech has not fared well offensively vs. the opponents on their schedule with a strong defense (Louisville 3, and Rutgers 16). They have however scored well when facing most other defenses. The Hokies otherwise average around 30ppg. Virginia is giving up 32ppg so I see the Hokies moving the ball well here. Virginia has an improved offense. The Cavs averaged just 21.4ppg through their first 5 games, but over their last 6 have averaged 26ppg. This game looks like it should be in the high 50s, and the game applies to a 177-108 ATS situation to the over as well. Make the play over the total.

Miami, O. is a very strong defense for a MAC team as they have allowed just 16.5ppg on the season. The Red Hawks are allowing just 10ppg in MAC games. Ball St. allowed 40 points or more in 4 of their first 5 games but in their last 5 games they have allowed less than 15ppg. Neither of these teams have much of an offense and they tend to just run the ball and play field position. Make the play under the total.

This Egg Bowl rivalry goes back a long way. Ole Miss comes into this game t 9-2 on the season and the 2 losses were to top 10 teams in Georgia, and Alabama. The defense looks worse than it actually is because they have faced Alabama,LSU, and Georgia. They allowed 1,605 yards in those 3 games. Otherwise the defense has been slightly above average. Miss St. has a brutal offense, and before facing a cupcake last week in Southern Miss, the Bulldogs scored just 33 points in 4 SEC games. Overall they have averaged 14.8ppg in 7 SEC contests, and against a high powered offense in Ole Miss, that is not going to get it done. This series is tied 17-17 over the last 34 years. I don't like a double-digit road favorite in a big rivalry match up. I'm more robust on the total, which is currently in the mid-50s. The last 34 meetings these teams have combined to score over 55 total points just 7 times!The last 27 meetings has produced 20 games under the total. Ole Miss is also 18-5 ATS to the under if they allowed 3 or fewer points in first half of their last game. Make the play under the total.

LSU has the best offense in NCAA Football this season by a significant margin. The Tigers are averaging 45.2ppg on the season and should have no trouble reaching or exceeding that number vs a Florida defense that has allowed better than 40ppg in their last 3 contests, and this is the best offense they will see all season. Florida has an above average offense that will put up a lot of points vs an LSU defense that is significantly below average. The LSU schedule shows they have hung up huge numbers to a schedule of teams with above average defenses, so there is no limit on what their offense can do vs Florida. This game also fits a situation that is 136-77 ATS to the over as well. Make the play OVER the total, my NCAAF Total of the year.

Tulane has a few games left, but the 20 wins they have achieved since the start of last season are the most in Tulane football history over a 2 consecutive year period. Last year the Green Wave averaged 36ppg, but the offense is not as good this season, as they average just 28.7ppg. Moreover, the defense is improved from allowing 22.2ppg a year ago to 19.3ppg this season. The Tulsa offense is very bad, and in their 3 games vs the top 3 defenses on their schedule they produced an average of 12.3ppg. I expect they get less than that in this game. Tulane has been 7-1 to the under in its last 8 games and has not exceeded 37 points in any game all season. There is plenty of margin for this game to come up shy of the total, and the play is on the UNDER.

The Akron football program has really struggled, especially over the last 5 years where they are a woeful 7-44 SU. Any chance they had at moving the needle this season ended when QB D.J. Irons went down with an ACL injury.They are left with left with Jeff Undercuffler. This team could run the ball pretty good because of Irons, but now they don't even have a running game, let alone being down to a 2nd string QB. The defense has held its own as the Zips allow just 344 yards per game. Miami, Ohio lost star Jeff Gabbert, and his backup  Aveon Smith has been dreadful. Miami is going to put the ball on the ground, and let their strong defense take the game over. I don't see a lot of points here, and will make the play under the total.

The Washington Commanders turned sellers and traded their bookend defensive ends Chase Young, and Montez Sweat. They also lost safety Darrick Forrest in week 5. This defense is already suspect having allowed 33 or more points 5 times this season already. New England scored 52 points over a 5 week period, but has scored 46 in their last 2. I think Washington lost most of their talent on the defensive end, and I can see significant points here. Rivera's teams have played over to a 30-16 ATS mark on turf, and Washington is 46-28 ATS to the over after scoring 30 or more points their last game. Make the play on the OVER.

East Carolina has one of the worst offenses in all of the FBS. The Pirates have averaged just 13ppg vs FBS teams. UTSA has been a solid under team all season, and both teams have combined for a 10-4 mark to the under on the season. That just supports my best total system that generally wins a lot of games. Make the play under the total.

This game fits a long term situation that has resulted in a 217-143-4 ATS situation, and the play is on the under.

The Chicago Bears are just 1-5 on the season, and about the only good part of that is if the draft was today they would have the first and second picks in the draft. That won't help their offense today. The Bears lost QB Justin Fields and Tyson Bagent will get the start. Chicago has another problem. They are going to want to run more, but Justin Fields was the reason they ran the ball above average, which won't be the case today. The Vegas offense has struggled along with QB Jimmy Garoppolo. Garoppolo has thrown just 7 TD passes with 8 INT's on the season. Las Vegas has averaged just 16ppg in his 5 starts. The Raiders offense is full of check downs and have trouble getting the ball downfield leaving behind a frustrated Davante Adams. This game is supported by a 79-41 ATS. Make the play on the UNDER.