NBA Top Total Play · Under   [509] Boston Celtics vs. [510] Miami Heat   196   -110

 Mr. East   Sun May 29th, 2022 8:30 pm EDT   Win/Loss Undecided
Expert Preview: MREAST NBA SUNDAY 5/29 PLAY OF THE DAY $25
Expert Analysis: The NBA Eastern Conference Finals all comes down to a game 7 in Miami. These teams have traded blows throughout the series, and expect another physically hotly contested game. The NBA has left behind a blueprint of game 7 totals, and just how differently they tend to play out in contrast to the first 6 games. Game 7 is on an island with its own results, and let`s take a walk through history. Each round matters as the level of competition become more balanced with each passing round. If you look at games played in the Conference Finals series, or NBA Championship Series over the last 20 years or so, there have been 10 games 7`s which isn`t a very large sample size, but it is indicative of how different a game 7 is. The odds makers realize this and it can be seen in the posted total. The 10 series in rounds 3 and 4 that have seen a game 7 show a stark contrast from game 1 vs game 7. The average game 1 total has been 199.7 and the game 7 total has been 191.8 or -7.9ppg fewer than game 1. Looking at this year, the game 1 total was 205 and the game 7 total is currently posted at 196 at Bovada (as of this writing) or an adjustment game 1 to game 7 of -9 points. So we see a -1.1 point difference from historical totals to current totals. This is a public syndrome, that has been made aware of the game 7 totals, and has bet the total down. It is much in the same way as the Army/Navy Football game that has been played for over a decade regardless of line value as the public goes under knowing the details, but the odds makers' adjustment is never enough. The history show NBA playoff game 7`s are 1-9 O/U in rounds 3 and 4. Are the adjustments enough? The 10 games played showed an average total posted of 191.8 with the average game score at 175.9! That is a difference of 15.9ppg. No team has ever scored more than 101 points in these games. Then the question is, scoring is way up in the NBA over the last 5 years or so, isn`t a total set below 200 way too low? My answer would be since 2016 there have been 4 games and the totals in those 4 games averaged 207.8 while the actual game score averaged just 181.2 or a difference of 26.6ppg. The last 4 which have occurred in the high-scoring era of the NBA have all gone under by 26.6ppg, so over a small sample size, it actually shows that things change dramatically in game 7, and are not compensated enough. I will make the play under the total.

Sunday, May 15th, 2022

NBA  Top Total Play · Under   [523] Milwaukee Bucks vs. [524] Boston Celtics 206.5  -110

 Mr. East   Sun May 15th, 2022 3:30 pm EDT   Win/Loss Undecided
Expert Preview: MREAST NBA SUNDAY 5/15 PLAY OF THE DAY
Expert Analysis: The Bucks and the Celtics have played a very physical series. Giannis has been immense with 3 straight 40-point games, and Jason Tatum was his equal in game 6. I think the fact that Giannis is generating so much of the offense, a lot of Milwaukee players are having a difficult time getting into the flow. Boston will be home for game 7 due to a 5 deep tiebreaker for the #2 seed, as these teams finished dead even in the regular season. Game 7 has typically been a different animal altogether. Everything is on the line, and defense is usually king. Since the start of the 2003 season, from round 2 forward the under is 23-8 and 2 of the 8 losses were due to overtime. If the total is posted at less than 211, the game 7 results from the 2nd round on are 19-5 to the under, with the average cover by 11ppg. Make the play on the under.

The Buffalo Bills are an alluring team after last week. Buffalo scored on every drive except a kneel down on their last possession. They played a perfect game with 7 straight Td drives, no punts, no turnovers. So they immediately become a sexy pick. The Chiefs may have something to say about that. Pat Mahomes and the Kansas City offense can score in bunches and quickly, and while the offense seems to be the talking point, the defense has better and healthier players, and looks completely different than it did in the beginning of the season. They have become a bonafide top 10 defense. While the Bills offense was perfect last week, the defense has been the strength of this team, and while it looks like both offenses are clicking right now, I think the defenses are going to have more to say than the offenses. This total is suggesting a shootout, and I don't think this game gets there. It fits a playoff total situation that is 39-17 ATS, and I will play under the total.

This game is based on a very strong total situation which is 226-128 ATS. The play is on the under.

This game is based on a very strong total situation which is 226-128 ATS. The play is on the under.

This game is based on a very strong total situation which is 226-128 ATS. The play is on the under.

The Brooklyn Nets were sailing along in good shape in the NBA Eastern Conference. The elite team has been crippled with injuries, and will be without Kevin Durant in the foreseeable future. Their last 13 games has seen both teams score 102 points or more, so the over seems like the way to go, but historically speaking that is not the case. Washington has scored 110 or more points in 10 of their last 11, further enhancing the betting public's view on the over. That has led to a total that is pumped and primed to have the opposite outcome. This game fits a situation that is 70-31 ATS to the under, and is in part based on 2 teams with high scoring offenses. Make the play on the under.

This game is purely situational. It fits a total situation that is 33-7 ATS in bowl games. Make the play on the under.

This game is based on a very strong 45-11 ATS Bowl total situation. The play is on the over.

Right now I am staying about 15 minutes from the Myrtle Beach Bowl. It was 35 degrees this morning, and the high is projected to be in the upper 40s. It was 78 here 2 days ago. The key factor will be the wind blowing steady ar 16 MPH and gusting to 25. This is going to turn into more of a clock chewing running game, and the kicking game will be impacted as well. I'm going under the total.

This pick is strictly system based. I don't typically play situations blindly unless they are very strong. This one is 87-38 ATS and the play is on the UNDER.

LA Lafayette has had a great run this season at 12-1, and look to close out the season with 13 wins, and have a quasi-home game to do it in. The Ragin Cajuns have been led by a defense that allows just 18.3ppg and in 2 big games vs Liberty and Appalachian St. they allowed 14, and 16 respectively. The defense has grown as the season has moved forward and LA Lafayette has allowed 16ppg over their last 6. Marshall was no match for the powerful offense of W. Kentucky but has otherwise held up very well allowing 15.5ppg in their 4 previous to W. Kentucky. Marshall was slowed by the better teams on its schedule having gone just 2-5 on the season, and a dead heat in total yards. LA Lafayette was 10-3 to the under this season, and I have an 85-44 ATS under situation for this game that is also 22-9 ATS in Bowl games, to the under. Make the play on the under.

Bahamas Bowl - Thomas Robinson Stadium - Nassau,

The Bowl season gets underway when Toledo (7-5) takes on Middle Tennessee St. (6-6). Middle Tennessee sure has some issues at QB as they are down to their 4th string QB as Chase Cunningham, Alec Ogden, and Bailey Hockman are all declared out. This is going to be a game decided by who can win the battle between the potent Toledo running game, and a Middle Tennessee run stop unit that did not allow 100 yard rusher in their last 7 games. Wind will be at least a slight factor as they are projected at 16 MPH with higher gusts, just enough to have some impact. There is one area of this game that is far under the radar. These teams have combined this season for 16 special teams or defensive touchdowns. That amounts to 112 points or 56 per team. Both teams finished plus double-digits in turnover margin, so there is a lot of scoring by these teams that was unrelated to the offense and I think the total here is not where it should be. Both teams are going to want to run the ball which should help to shorten the game as well. I like the under in this one.

Tuesday December 14th, 2021

  Top Total Play · Over   [605] Furman Paladins vs. [606] North Carolina Tar Heels
    Tue Dec 14th, 2021 7:00pm EST   Win/Loss Undecided

This game is based on one of my favorite and most reliable total situations. If you play on the under when a team enters the game off a road favorite loss of 10 points or more from game 4 on they are 175-110-6 ATS to the under. If their opponent is off a loss the under is 37-6-1 ATS to the under, including 28-3 ATS in the last 31 occurrences. Make the play on the under.

This game makes little sense. Both teams will be starting back up QB's and the Lions from week 2 on have yet to score 20 points in a game. Tim Boyle threw for 77 yards last week and 2 INT's, and now the Bears go with back up Andy Dalton (who is better than Fields by the way). The Bears defense is bad enough for even Boyle and the inept Lions to do something, and Dalton is an upgrade for the Bears offense. This game seems so obvious it should stay under the total, and I have seen games like this all too often where weird things happen and the expected quickly goes sideways. I like the over in this one.

Aaron Rodgers at QB tends to say offense, but the Packer offense has been sputtering all season. They rank in the bottom third of the league. The last 5 games has the Green Bay offense averaging just 19.2ppg. Meanwhile the Packers who have been labeled an offensive team during the Rodgers era have become one of the top defenses in the league. Green Bay has held its last 5 opponents to 11.6ppg.The Packers have in fact played 7 straight games to the under. No opponent in that stretch has scored more than 22 points against them. The Packers have not topped the 27 point mark in any of the 7 games either, and collectively the 7 Packer games have averaged just 35 total points. Minnesota has played 5 of their last 7 to the under holding 5 opponents to 20 or fewer points. The Packers are 4-1 to the under in its last 5 played in Minnesota with the average total score being fewer than 41 points. This game also fits a situation that is 50-15 ATS to the under. Make the play on the under.

When you think of Ole Miss you immediately think of high scoring games. They have played to lofty totals all season, but their games have not been as explosive as the odds-makers have suggested. Ole Miss has actually played 5 straight games to the under. The total for this one is running in the mid 60s and it just doesn't fit what these teams have done on the season. Vanderbilt doesn't belong in the SEC, which is part of the reason, but the Commodores have allowed 45 points or less in SEC games this season, and have allowed 40 on average. The issue for them is can they score? Vanderbilt is averaging just 10ppg in their 6 conference tilts this season, so their SEC games have averaged just 50ppg, and 4 of their last 5 have played under the total. Ole Miss has scored 31 or fewer points in 5 of their 6 SEC games which have averaged 61.7ppg, and 5 straight have played under the total. The total suggests a51-14 final score, while combined these teams average 56.1ppg in SEC games. If you look at Ole Miss and their outlier 52-51 win vs Arkansas, their SEC games average just 53.4ppg. Vandy lost to Georgia 62-0, otherwise their SEC games have seen 49.8ppg scored. What I am suggesting is it will take another outlier game to push this over the total. Moreover, Ole Miss is off a huge upset of Texas A&M, and are in a letdown spot, and on deck for them is the Egg Bowl rivalry game vs Miss St. I don't them pushing hard in this game. Make the play on the under.

4 PM GAME    YALE @ VERMONT    UNDER 139.5   -110

This is a very good early season match up between a pair of New England schools that have had plenty of success on the basketball floor. These teams match up pretty well, and defense should be the order of the day. They met in 2019 and managed just 125 points scored, and both teams are defending at a high level right now. These teams take care of the ball, so not a lot of easy buckets, and neither is getting to the line all that much. Those things should keep the clock moving, and make this a quick game. Yale has been 48-28 ATS to the under when playing against a team that has a 4 point scoring margin over their opponents on the season. Make the play on the under.

This game features a pair of QB's having good seasons, as well as a pair of defenses that are suffering from a rash of injuries. The Chargers defense has allowed 31.8ppg over their last 4 and the Vikings will have up to as many as 5 key starters that may miss this game. The Chargers are ranked last in the NFL in success rate over their last 4 games. This game fits a situation that has been 87-46 ATS to the over. Make the play over the total.

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers saw their games average in the 40s last year. This team has opened up the offense and are one of the top offensive teams in the league averaging 513 yards per game. They should have no trouble reaching or topping those numbers vs Rice, who allowed 620 yards to Texas, and 52 points to UTSA. The Hilltoppers over the last 5 weeks are averaging 43+ points per contest. Rice is averaging 19.3ppg but have been shutout by Texas, and UTSA in its last 7 games, and otherwise has averaged 30ppg in their other 5. Western Kentucky is allowing 29.3ppg on the season, and there is plenty of room for a lot of scoring here. Make the play on the over.

These teams each lost their opener as they each stepped up in class and were exposed on the offensive end of the court. Combined in their first game of the season they scored a grand total of 90 points. That is a far cry from where this total is. Evansville and IUPUI are rebuilding, and are both predicted to be at or near the bottom of their respective conferences this season. IUPUI lost its top 3 scorers from a year ago and placed just 1 player in double-digits in game one. Evansville managed just 43 points vs Cincinnati, and where are the points coming from? Both also were terrible at the free throw line, further reducing scoring potential. The good news is each held down much stronger opponents, as both played much below total point expectations. Make the play on the under.

The Rams are part of the top heavy NFC, where there is currently 5 teams beginning the week with a single loss. The Rams have taken the next step up on offense behind Matthew Stafford as they are averaging just about 30ppg. The Rams will have a huge mismatch in their favor going up against the very weak Texan's secondary. I expect the Rams to surpass their season scoring average of 30ppg in this contest. Houston is down to David Mills at QB and he has yet to win an NFL game. The Houston offense has been bogged down by 10 turnovers in its last 4 games, and 2.5 turnovers per contest is unsustainable, and I expect that number to go down, and the points to go up. The Rams defense has only been about average on the season, and they may not be on the field a lot in the 2nd half of this one, enhancing the Texan's chances of scoring. Make the play on the over in this one.

The Colorado Buffalo's are now the worst offensive team in the nation gaining just an average of 238 yards per game. Colorado has gained fewer than 200 yards a game in their 5 losses on the season. Oregon has been pretty solid on both sides of the ball, and I really doubt that Colorado is going to contribute much here in this game, and almost all the points will have to come from Oregon. Outside of big scoring games vs Stony Brook, and winless Arizona Oregon has scored 24-35 points in every game. I think this number is too high and will make the play on the under.

The Baltimore Ravens are known to like to put the ball on the ground especially with Lamar Jackson at QB. The running game should be met with little resistance, as the Chargers run stop unit is among the worst in the league. The usually reliable Baltimore defense is not up to standard, as it is allowing 6.5 yards per play and close to 400 yards a game. Justin Hebert has taken a very strong rookie season, and elevated it as he is beating last year's numbers to this point of the season. Things haven't gotten much better as they allowed over 500 yards last week to the Colts. This game should see a lot of scoring opportunities, make the play on the over.

The Vanderbilt football program has struggled over many years trying to keep up with the schools in the SEC. They have had little success in doing so and this year they may be worse than the poor teams they have put on the field in many years. This is a team that managed just 3 points against E. Tennessee St., and has been shutout twice on top of that. They have scored 80 points in 6 games on the season. Their offense is generating -2.40 yards per play fewer than what their defense allows. South Carolina is in distress as well. The Gamecocks are averaging just 17.2 points per game vs FBS teams, and the offense has been average, while the defense is 0.5 yards better than the schedule of offenses they have faced. I think South Carolina will be capped at 30 in this game and they have already held 4 teams to 17 points or fewer on the season, and Vanderbilt is below those teams offensively. I look for this game to play under the total.

Washington will once again go with QB Taylor Heinicke. Probably the best testiment to the Washington offensive line was the fact that Heinicke took 3 seconds on average to unload the ball, and did not get sacked a single time. Washington runs the ball at a top 10 rate, but the Saints own the 2nd best run stop unit in the NFL so the heart of the Washington offense is going into a very unfavorable match up. Winston is known for holding the ball too long, and will be with out 2 pieces in his offensive line, most notable starting center Erik McCoy. I like this game to play under the total.

The match up here should provide a lot more scoring opportunities than the posted total might otherwise indicate. The Atlanta offense has allowed less time for Matt Ryan to et rid of the ball, and that has led to running backs featured in the passing game, as Ryan needs to get the ball out quickly. The Falcons target running backs at the 2nd highest rate in the league and the Jets allow the 2nd most receiving yards to running backs in the league. That sets up the Atlanta offense for success in this contest. Jamison Crowder lifted the Jets offense last week in his first game. He was targeted 9 times, and has a favorable match up here vs Atlanta. This game will be played in London under very good scoring conditions. I think these match ups favor a game with more scoring than expected. Make the play over the total.

Seattle had a big halftime lead vs Tennessee last week, and let it slip away in the 2nd half in a 33-30 loss. The Titans went for over 500 yards on the Seahawks. Minnesota despite allowing a considerable amount of points has one of the top run defenses in the league, and they will be able to get pressure on Wilson. Cousin's has 6 starts vs Seattle and 5 of the games have played under, and the Minnesota defense has historically been much better at home, and this will be the home opener for the Vikings. Russell Wilson is 15-7 to the under when playing as a road favorite. I like the under in this one.

Arizona St. has put up some impressive numbers on offense in their two games this season. The problem the numbers have come vs Southern Utah and UNLV. The Sun Devils were on average 40 point favorites in the 2 games. Ironically, BYU was beating a pair of Pac-12 teams. One was Utah a team that is a huge rival, and the Cougars took them down 26-17. It ended a 9 game losing streak to their biggest rival. The Cougars have done just enough on offense to allow a strong defense to do its think holding 2 Pac-12 teams to 16 and 17 points, which is rather impressive. Arizona did combine to score 78 points in the two games, but think about it. They were a -80 point favorite in the two games and didn't even combine to score 80 points. That is a red flag to me, and I think the BYU defense will rise to the occasion again. BYU doesn't have the offense they did a year ago, and I think this is going to be a lower scoring game than indicated. Coach Sitake has always been a defensive minded coach and is now 42-24 to the over at BYU. (30-13 under on grass). Make the play on the under.

The University of Connecticut have parted ways with Randy Edsall, but the results were the same. They were shutout for the 2nd straight time vs an FBS team. The Huskies are among the worst NCAA Football teams of all-time. The Huskies will benefit however this week because Army runs the ball almost every play. That shortens the game but it also will provide cover for the worst part of the Huskie defense which is the passing game. UConn has actually been about average defending the run, and while Army puts up big rushing numbers every game, they have managed just 4.5 yards per attempt to a schedule of teams that allows 4.8. They have been below average, and UConn can at least defend the run. The Huskie offense is another story. They can't score and it is likely they score very little here. Over the last 15 years in NCAA Football a team that ran the ball 60 or more times (Army 67), have played to the under in their next game 59% of the time. I think this is a good match up for the UConn defense, and I will make the play on the under.

The Pittsburgh Steelers will wheel out Ben Roethlisberger at age 39 for another go. Big Ben is 39 now and he has lost his fastball. He also is at the point where he does not have the ability to escape and shake a rush anymore and is subject to injury. What complicates things is the Pittsburgh offensive line is below average, and the running game is non-existent. The Steelers finished at 82 yards a game last year on the ground, which was dead last in the NFL. Buffalo has exceeded their season wins total 4 straight years, but have no Super Bowl appearances to show for it. Josh Allen's numbers last year compared to past seasons were among the biggest jump of any player in recent memory. It will be hard for him to duplicate those numbers this year, especially in game 1 as the one thing Pittsburgh can do is play defense. I look for this game to plaay under the total.

The Pittsburgh Steelers will wheel out Ben Roethlisberger at age 39 for another go. Big Ben is 39 now and he has lost his fastball. He also is at the point where he does not have the ability to escape and shake a rush anymore and is subject to injury. What complicates things is the Pittsburgh offensive line is below average, and the running game is non-existent. The Steelers finished at 82 yards a game last year on the ground, which was dead last in the NFL. Buffalo has exceeded their season wins total 4 straight years, but have no Super Bowl appearances to show for it. Josh Allen's numbers last year compared to past seasons were among the biggest jump of any player in recent memory. It will be hard for him to duplicate those numbers this year, especially in game 1 as the one thing Pittsburgh can do is play defense. I look for this game to plaay under the total.

Notre Dame does not have the depth it has had over the past few seasons. We saw that impact last week as the defense was dog tired and the Irish defense looked helpless in stopping the Florida St. offense in the 2nd half. Florida St. piled up the rushing yards generating 264. Transfer QB Jack Coan looked very comfortable racking up 366 passing yards and 4 TDs against the Noles as he has a lot of weapons unlike he has had before. They will be coming off a short week which certainly could leave the defense vulnerable again vs a Toledo team that is returning 21 players and should contend for the MAC Title. Last season Toledo put up 35 points per game and certainly could up that total this season. The Rockets have it all covered on offense and should pump enough points into this game limit the work the Notre Dame offense has to generate to push this one over the top. Notre Dame could not stop Florida St. and Toledo is going to get their share here against an Irish defense which is good but not not like what we have seen the past couple of seasons. Make the play on the over.

If you happened to get a glimpse of Tulsa last week, it had to make you cringe. The Golden Hurricanes had an easy game vs FCS UC Davis and they were posted as a 25 point favorite. One problem. They did not even score 25 points they finished with 17 and had trouble all game getting anything going. Tulsa QB David Brin put a lot of expectations on the QB with a 4th quarter come from behind win vs Tulane last year. That isn't what we saw in week 1. Oklahoma St. was a 38 point favorite vs FCS Missouri St. and barely pulled out a 23-16 win. QB Spencer Sanders was a late scratch and is in quarantine regarding covid-19. He is expected to miss again. The Cowboys generated just 5.2 yards per play against an FCS team and turned the ball over 3 times. Oklahoma St. faced Tulsa last season and won a very low scoring game 16-7. I don't see a whole lot of difference here in this one. Make the play on the under.

NBA LATE SEASON GAMES VS 2 GOOD TEAMS PLAY UNDER IN THIS SITUATION:

The NBA regular season is long and we have reached the gun lap. When we get this late in the season the good teams are fighting for playoff position and it usually leads to a concerted effort on the defensive end of the court. That rings especially true when it is a division game. Let's take a look at how this all sets up:

1)   Division game

2)  Game number is greater than 55

3)  Regular season game

4)  Both teams are greater than .550

5)  Home team (designated only to avoid double-posting of games)

These teams play to a 216-145-8 ATS mark to the under. Covering just shy of 60% of all games with a sample size of more than 350 games. Tonight consider the Suns and Clippers under the total

This game fits a total situation which is 107-59 ATS, and the play is on the over

This game fits a total situation which is 219-148 ATS, and the play is on the under.

When a pair of bad teams get together in an NBA game, and neither team has any rest the defenses which are typically bad to begin with on poor teams are a total no-show. After all when a team doesn't play defense when it is rested, what would you expect to see when they have no rest at all. This tends to be more predictable when the game is not between divisional opponents as there is usually more of a rivalry going on between division opponents. Today in the newsletter we have a gem to share with some powerful historic numbers that feeds the above narrative. Let's take a look:

1)  Both teams on 0 rest

2)  Both teams are poor with a winning percentage of .400 or less.

3)   Not a division game

4)  Home favorite

When it comes to the LA Lakers there is no doubt that LeBron is the guy that stirs the drink. The Lakers are 0-4 O/U at home without LeBron on the court with their games averaging just 198.5 total points scored. Everyone is wondering about Boston and why they have struggled so much this season. Tatum and Brown have matured into elite NBA players, and with Kemba Walker at the point, they have a trio of all-stars. Robert Williams has become the rim protector and is starting now that they have traded Theis. Since the insertion into the starting lineup with expanded minutes, he has helped close off the middle, and Boston has been a better defensive team. The Celtics are 8-3 over their last 11 games, and have reduced their points allowed by 4.3ppg and have played 8 of the 11 under the total. This Celtics team is much better than they have played and it is all on the defensive end, and they appear to have made strides there, and are playing like they have the past 2 seasons. Make the play under the total.

This game fits a situation that is 91=38 ATS to the under. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a pair of situations that are 232-147, and 127-76 ATS make the play on the over

The New Orleans Pelicans continue the ride in the over bubble. They will face a defensive challenge from Miami tonight. Heat games are averaging just 215.7ppg on the season. They have given up 144 to Milwaukee, 128 to the Nets, and 125 to the Clippers, and just played Utah to a game that saw 240 points scored. Pelicans 25-3-2 ATS to the over since after New Year's Day. (19-1-2 ATS to a total of 221 or more). They also fit over situations of 59-24, and 80-47. I'm riding the balloon here until it bursts. Make the play on the over.

I don't have a lot to say here other than I trust this particular situation that is backed by a 108-49-4 ATS situation that is flying high for a long time. Make the play on the over.

The New Orleans Pelicans continue to defy the odds makers and their willingness to apply their reality to the numbers. Since the first of the year the Pelicans are 18-1-2 ATS to the over with a posted total of greater than 222. The Pelicans games are averaging 241.3ppg defying posted totals by odds makers by 11.64ppg. While their 241.3ppg average is over a 21 game period, the odds makers have posted just one of their games at more than 237.5. They treat the Brooklyn Nets and their star-studded cast of all-stars much differently, but the Pelicans score more, and do so consistently. Moreover, they are not trending down, they are trending up. Their last 11 games have averaged 248 total points! The ceiling is just too high to ignore, and the odds makers apparently are ignoring. Make the play on the over.

The LA Lakers are obviously a different team without Anthony Davis. They are 7-5 SU without him and 17-6 with him. He makes a huge difference off the glass a net of -4 per contest, and each metric on the team shows some erosion without him in the lineup. The odds makers have not conceded an inch in posting totals, despite evidence to the contrary. The average total for a Lakers game with or without Davis has been 221.3, yet without him they average just 214.8. (small sample sizes). The Suns shot 50% or better in 9 of 10 games, before shooting 49.4% last game. The Lakers are a very strong defending team, and statistically, the Phoenix offense is sliding from the apex during the streak, and should continue to trend down. This game has a strong under indicator that is an impressive 107-49-7 ATS. Make the play under the total.

The Milwaukee Bucks are the classic example of a streaky team. They have been on a course where they won 5 straight, lost 5 straight, and have won 5 straight again. Milwaukee likes to squeeze off a lot of shots and have been 8-2-1 to the over in their last 11 when attempting 90 or more shots. Denver has allowed just 1 of their last 10 opponents to do so, and should have enough defensive input to influence the pace of this contest. Bucks have played 3 straight to the under in their last 3 attempting fewer than 90 shots, and this is one key to an under here. There is also an extremely powerful situation that is 89-36-8 ATS towards the under. Make the play on the under.

The Brooklyn Nets get a lot of ink with high scoring games, but the Washington Wizards ride just under the radar, and have actually played to more games with a total of greater than 231 (the new magic number for NBA totals), at 21 on the season. They have an overall total record on the season of 17-15 to the over, but 13-8 when the total is greater than 231, so 4-7 otherwise. This may be an indication that their offense is better suited to score in a perceived high scoring game. They have under-performed totals of 231 or fewer points by -6.1ppg and over-performed totals of greater than 231 by +3.7ppg. That is a 10 point differential, but we are dealing with small sample sizes, but it is certainly worth noting, as it does tell a story. Those numbers actually increase to +6 to totals of greater than 231 with Russell Westbrook on the court, so we sneak a bit more. Looking at the other end of the court Washington allows 47% shooting and 38% from deep. Grizzlies at their best vs bad 3 point defensive teams where they have played over in 8 of their last 10. They have out-performed the total by +5.5ppg in these contests. A trend, not a system, fits them as well, which is 23-0 ATS and is based on some things I like. Make the play on the over.

It sure looks like these teams have packed it in. The Cavs are looking to move Andre Drummond, and he is not playing. They have gone 16 games without topping the 113 point mark. They have defended better after allowing 9 of 10 opponents to shoot 50% or better, Cleveland has held their last 3 opponents to 45% or less. Houston was above .500 but have dropped 11 straight games. The Rockets offense is struggling and they have shot 43% or less in 9 of their last 11 games. Make the play on the under.

The New Orleans Pelicans are all about offense, but in the process they have left the other end of the floor naked. The Pelicans last 10 games has seen the total score average an astounding 249 points per contest. They are now 19-1-1 ATS to the over in their last 21 games. The Jazz are 14-7 to the over in their last 21 including 4-1 in their last 5. The Jazz has shot 50% or better in 10 of its last 14, and certainly should add another against an ole defense of the Pelicans. This game fits a situation that is 20-0 ATS to the over. Make the play on the over.

The NY Knicks are suddenly a playoff caliber team. They were held back by a brutal offense that is finally showing growth. The Knicks offense managed to reach 120 points just 1 time prior to February 13th, and have done so 3 times since in a span of just 6 games. It is worth noting that all 4 times they have reached this number it has been at home. Overall the Knicks games have averaged 6 more points per game at home. Pacers have played 3 straight to the over and come into this game on 0 rest, so the defense may not be as sharp here. This game fits a situation that is 203-114 ATS. Make the play on the over.

The narrative remains the same. The odds makers remain at a quandary of pricing extreme totals, and they are not finding it yet as the market continues to flourish in the upper range. Totals greater than 231 are now 53-23 ATS. Specifically, if you look at a home team to a total of 235 and up, and the home team is less than .625 (shy of elite), and the road team is better than .425, these games are 18-0 ATS to the over since after the New Year Holiday. Make the play on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 70-35 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 106-48-4 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 122-67-6 ATS, and the play is on the under

The Phoenix Suns have been a hot team and the offense has been sizzling. Phoenix has averaged 121.5ppg over its last 6 and has shot over 50% on average in the 6 games. Memphis is 9-2-1 to the over in its last 12 games and the tempo for this team has climbed over the past few weeks. The Grizzlies have certainly shown interest in pacing up when playing a team that likes to push the ball. The 10 games this season where the total has been posted in a Memphis game at 224 or higher has seen total points in those Memphis games average 240ppg.(8-1-1 ATS to the over in the 10 games). They have averaged just 212ppg otherwise. Both of these teams played last night, so neither team will have any rest, which is another signal for a higher scoring game. This game also fits an extremely strong 106-48-3 ATS situation on the over as well. Make the play over the total.

This game fits a situation that is 28-6 ATS and the play is on the over

This game fits a situation that is 302-182 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 302-182 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 302-182 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 80-35 ATS and the play is on the under.

The Utah Jazz are rolling and not many saw this coming as they will take on the L Clippers. The jazz are now 23-5 on the season and have gone 19-1 in their last 20 games. Looking at these teams they both can score big, but neither team has seen the average score of their games reach this total. I think it is a con job by the odds makers as the public sees elite teams and immediately says over. The fact is when an .800 team is a road favorite in the NBA high scoring era starting in 2016 scoring never materializes as expected. The game take on a defensive intensity. When an elite team (.800 or better), is a road favorite vs another elite team (.700 or better), since the start of the 2016 season they are 11-0 to the under. These games have averaged 214 total points and fallen shy of the total by 13ppg. I like the under in this one.

Crazy events set this game into motion, as weather and covid-19 has created havoc for these teams, so they made a last minute arrangement to put this game on the schedule. That sets the stage for a potential free for all as preparation for this game is at a minimal. Detroit is in a strange position. They are on a very modest 2 game winning streak, but it is a lot bigger than that. It is the first time the Pistons will come into a game on at least a 2 game winning streak since January 20, 2020, or 13 months ago! The Bulls like to push the ball, especially vs weak opponents that are below .400. Against weak teams their games have averaged 235ppg. Couple the situation with the scheduling with that and a historic over situation that is 215-125 ATS with a subset that is 112-55 ATS, and I will make the play on the over.

The NY Knicks lead the NBA in points allowed at 103.6 per game. Tom Thibodeau has gotten this group to dig in on the defensive end of the court, and the Knicks find themselves with a chance to get to .500. Orlando opened the season at 6-2 but has been a woeful 4-16 since, as the injury bug left them with just 8 players for their last game vs Phoenix. The Knicks however through 15 games saw 203.2ppg scored in their games. They have increased the pace and efficiency and since their games have averaged 212.1ppg, an increase of 9ppg. The Magic, much like the Knicks saw their games average 213.7ppg through January 20th, but 220ppg since an increase of 6.3ppg. I see some value here on a low total between two teams that have each seen significant scoring increases as the season has progressed. This game also fits an extremely strong totals indicator that has been 106-47-3 ATS. Make the play on the over.

This game fits a total situation that is 41-9 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 103-47 ATS and the play is on the over

This game fits a situation that is 110-64 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a total situation that is 113-59 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a total situation that is 96-45 ATS and the play is on the over.

There is a lot to unpack for this game. We have two QBs that may in the end go down to the top 2 all-time. I think for the KC offense it comes down to how much will it matter that their offensive line is down both of their starting tackles? I think for Tampa Bay it will come down to how Brady handles the blitz. The Bucs allowed 27 points in the 1st meeting, which is a win against this KC offense. The points however didn't tell the story. Tyreke Hill owned the game. Kansas City was up 17-0 early and was on their way to making it 24-0 when Mahomes suffered a strip-sack inside the 15. Hill had 202 receiving yards in the first quarter. Mahomes had 462 passing yards in the game. The 27 points were an anomaly, it could just as easily have been 45. Tampa Bay will get destroyed if they depend on the blitz to get pressure. They learned that lesson early and often in game 1. They blitzed 12 times in that game, 11 in their first half. They also have to be more relaxed on the line. Tampa Bay jumped offsides 4 times in the game, which is a Mahomes specialty, as he drew 26 flags this season, tops in the league, while Tampa Bay jumped 24 times on defense ranked second-worst in the league. Trying to play man defense is suicide against Mahomes, as they ran a man defense for 8 plays, and Mahomes was 6-8 for 113 yards and 2 TDs. The problem is, Travis Kelce is a zone destroyer and a blitz destroyer. He was targeted just 8 times in that game but had 8 catches. When KC lines up with 3 receivers on one side, and Kelcey alone on the other side, Mahomes keys on White. If White blitzes, the back comes out to Kelce's side, and it is 2 on 1 with Kelce carving free space in the middle. Tampa Bay ranks 25th against opponents TEs, and this guy is the best of them all. If KC goes 12 personnel with 2 TE's Mahomes averages 9.4 yards per attempt, and the TB defense on the season allows 8.1. The TB defense ranks 26th on first down, 16th on 2nd, 6th on 3rd, and 1st on 4th. They get better by the down. TB is going to get chances to score. KC allowed 954 yards to TEs this season. Gronk and Cameron Brate were targeted often and with success in the first meeting. Gronk had his best game of the year, and Brate had 4 grabs as well. TB likes to throw downfield and had 67 passing plays of 20+ yards, while the KC pass defense allowed 54. The TB offense is peaking right now. They ranked 11th in week's 1-9 but have since ranked #2. (ahead of KC). While Mahomes is good at drawing flags at the line of scrimmage, Brady and the Buc's receivers are good at drawing flags for DPI. The Bucs got 23 of those, an all-time record. Those 23 plays supplied 395 more yards of hidden offense. KC was flagged 15 times for defensive pass interference, and additionally, their defensive backs rank #30 in broken tackles allowed. I can see where two offenses that each have a plethora of star-studded weapons can find ways to score quickly, as each defense has vulnerabilities that each opponent has the weapons to expose. My play in this game is on OVER the total.

The good news for the Phoenix Suns is Devin Booker has been elevated to probable. The Suns established themselves as an under team with a 12-6-1 mark to that end. That was established early as they opened the season with 6 straight games under the total. The Suns games have played 5 points over the total average after those first 6 games. The Pelicans are firmly established as a team that likes to score, but plays little in the way of defense. The Pelicans are 12-2 to the over in their last 14 games. Ironically, the Pelicans opened the season with 5 straight under the total games as well. The Pelicans games have increased in scoring by 31ppg since game 6 and over the period now average 232ppg. Needless to say a lot of hidden value to this game. Add in a 235-169-9 ATS situation over the total and we have a solid play here. Make the play on the over.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are a franchise that has been awful since the Kevin Garnet era. This team despite drafting at or near the top of the 1st round, just can't make any progress. They are a brutal road team, and that leaves some hidden value on the total here. Minnesota scores the same home or away, but the opponent scores just 111.9ppg against them at home and a woeful 120.1ppg on the road. The Spurs used to always be a very good defensive team, but they are allowing 114.5ppg at home, and the door is wide open here for a high scoring game. Add in a situation that is 115-64-6 ATS topping the total, and tonight I will make the play on the over in this one.

Both these teams used to have a lot of offensive weapons but that has changed. Oklahoma City is being run into the ground by feasting opponents. Over the Thunder's last 10 games their opponent is squeezing off an average of 96 shots per contest. Those numbers are scaling up to 99 shots a game over their last 4. That has led to a 7-2 run to the over. Houston is winning again, and the reason appears to be they are turning up the pace of their games as well. Combine what is happening on the floor to a 192-107-11 ATS situation over the total we have some good value here tonight. Make the play on the over.

This game fits a total situation that is 111-38-5 ATS, and the play is on the over.

Both of these teams have become over teams as the Hornets are shooting the ball much better and are 7-2 to the over in their last 9, while the Sixers are healthier and learning each other and have played 10-4 to the over in their last 14. This game also fits a strong over tendency that shows at 99-46-3 ATS. Make the play on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 252-169-13 ATS and the play is on the over

This game fits a situation that is 252-169-13 ATS and the play is on the over

This game fits a situation that is 115-63-6 ATS and the play is on the over

This game fits a situation that is 104-61-5 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 88-26-1 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 88-26-1 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 76-30-1 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 97-46-3 ATS and the play is on over

This game fits a situation that is 214-132-16 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 490-351-7 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 490-351-7 ATS and the play is on the over.

The Boston Celtics are 10-6 and have played no games with their 3 stars playing full minutes. That is changing as Kemba Walker is seeing his minutes gradually increase, and with it, the Celtics offense is rising to another level. Before the odds makers catch up, the totals for Boston games are rising, while the totals posted are not. This game is also backed up by a 136-77 ATS total system. Make the play on the over.

This game fits a totals situation that is 188-104 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a totals situation that is 188-104 ATS and the play is on the over.

The Cleveland Browns and the Kansas City Chiefs match two teams big on offense and small on defense. They Browns have played 6-2 to the over when the total has been 48 points or higher and the 2 games that stayed under were against top tier defenses in Baltimore and Pittsburgh. They were otherwise 6-0 to the over. All 8 of the games showed an average of 64.38 points being scored. Kansas City has played just 6 games over the total this season, but all 6 of those games were to a total of 50-58. NFL playoff games don`t often have high totals, but when there has been a playoff game with a total of 56 or higher they have gone 5-1 to the over with the average points scored at 63.33. Andy Reid is now 7-1 to the over to a total of 55.5 or more. Make the play on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 123-82-6 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 122-82 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 122-82 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a total situation that is based in part on both teams coming off blowout wins. The situation is 295-214-9 ATS, and the play is on over the total.

These teams have battled 18 times since Russell Wilson was drafted by Seattle. Outside of a 4 game stretch of shootouts, the rest of the games have been tight, physical, brawls. Those 14 games have seen the under prevail 12-2. Just twice did these teams top 40 total points between them in the 14 games.The losing team has scored 17 or fewer points in 12 of the 14 games. The loser has also scored 10 points or fewer in half of the 14 games. The wildcard round has seen the under cash at a 51-34-1 rate, with a qualifying subset that fits this game of 28-6 and 15-1. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a totals situation that is based in large part how these teams performed last game. It plays on certain road teams that fit the criteria. This situation has performed very well and is now 227-149-13 ATS. Make the play on the over.

This game fits a late season division total situation that is 117-68 ATS. Make the play on the under.

This game fits my mega total system, and the play is on the under.

While there is some low sample size situations on the under in this game, I have a couple large sample size situations (195-105 ATS, and 148-96 ATS) on the over, and the game caps out to 53.5 points scored. I always trust large samples over small ones, and with this game capping out at 53.5, make the play on the over.

This game fits a total situation that is 178-113 ATS and the play is on the under.