I'm playing on TB/NO UNDER the total. Brady vs. Brees = Shootout. Right? Not tonight, in my opinion. Sure, everyone is excited about the showdown between the two future hall-of-famers. With all that excitement, we're working with a higher O/U line than we were for the two regular season meetings. With all due respect to Brees and Brady, I feel that the high number is providing excellent value. These defenses are both really good. Remember, these teams combined for just 41 points (38-3!) last meeting. Remember, the O/U line was 48 for the game here, at New Orleans. Remember, that the Saints defensive line has been all over Brady in the two reg. season meetings. Remember, five of Brady's 12 INT's as a Buccaneer, have come against this NO team. Tampa coach Arians acknowledged: "We've got to block them better." I expect that to lead to a slightly more conservative game plan than normal, as the Bucs try to protect their star QB. While Brees runs the show, the Saints also really rely on Kamara and the running game. Yet, the Bucs were the best team in the league at stopping the run. The Saints were fourth best in that area. The Bucs were also fourth best in terms of sacking the opposing QB. NO also ranked in the top 10 (8th) in that category. Both defenses were right near the top of the league, in terms of interceptions, too. In fact, the Saints tied for first with 18 while the Bucs had 15. Again, these defenses are better than some seem to realize. I look for the final score to prove lower than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on LA/GB UNDER the total. Without a doubt, Rodgers has had a great year. However, he hasn't faced a defense this good. He can ask Russell Wilson if he wants confirmation. The Rams game against Seattle finished above the total. However, the Rams still arguably won that one with their defense and thats certainly why they were in the playoffs to begin with. Prior to the Seattle game, LA had seen its previous four games all stay below the number, allowing an average of less than 11 ppg. Donald has been held out of practice but has said that he'll be good to go. While Rodgers rightfully gets all the headlines, the Packers defense quietly closed the season in top form. The Pack held each of their final three opponents below the 17-point mark. Four of their past five opponents scored fewer than 17 points, the other managed 24. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on Baltimore/Tennessee OVER the total. For good reason, this is the highest O/U line of the weekend's playoff games. I believe that it could easily be even higher. Both these offenses are rolling. The Titans have scored 30 or more points in six of their past seven games. Last time out, they scored 41. Meanwhile, the Ravens scored 38 last time out. In their previous four games, they scored 27, 40, 47, and 34 points. The Ravens will be facing a porous Titan defense which has surrendered a whopping 78 points in its last two games. The Ravens' defenders are going to have their hands full, too. The Titans are the first team in NFL history which has a 2000 yard rusher AND a QB who threw for more than 3500 yards. The Titans average nearly 400 yards of offense per game, second only to the defending champion Chiefs. Despite this game being played at Tennesse, the Titans find themselves "getting points." Thats noteworthy, as the OVER is a perfect 6-0 the past six times that the Titans were listed as underdogs. This will make it seven straight. 

I'm playing on TB/Washington UNDER the total. I won with Washington 'under' on Sunday night, while losing with the Eagles. (Thanks Doug Pederson #$%@) The 20-14 final marked the fifth straight Washington game which had stayed below the total. While that normally would cause the O/U lines to start going down, this O/U line is higher than any of those ones. That's because, in part, because the betting public is enamored with Tom Brady. The thought process being that any game that Brady is in will most certainly be high-scoring. Tampa's recent high-scoring games have only helped to strengthen that perception. Certainly, the future Hall-Of-Famer has had his share of good moments this season. However, he's also had some bad ones. Keep in mind that the recent high-scornig TB games have come against the likes of Detroit (worst defense in league, in terms of ppg) Atlanta (twice) and Minnesota (28th defense in terms of ppg). This Washington defense is far stingier than any that Brady and co. have faced recently. Note that Mike Evans, Brady's favorite receiver on this team, hyperextended his knee last game. Though they hope to have him back, if he does play, he may not be quite 100%. On the other side, the Bucs defense is quietly also very good. While the number took a bit of a hit lately, Tampa still only allows 22.2 ppg. With Washington running the ball regularly to help chew up the clock, look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on Washington/Philly UNDER the total. Washington is on an 'under' streak while Philadelphia is on an 'over' streak. On a chilly and likely wet night, with the division on the line, I expect it to be the first of those streaks which continues. Washington is in this position because of its defense. Its allowed 20 or fewer points in six straight games. The Eagles' offense has certainly been better since Wentz got benched. That said, they've still scored less than 27 points in nine straight games. Last time out, they managed a mere 17 against a normally porous Dallas defense. Thats now five of their last seven games where the Eagles have scored 17 or less. Washington, meanwhile, managed just 13 points last week after scoring only 15 in its previous game. That's four straight games where the Football Team has scored less than 24. Expect a relatively low-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on Cincinnati/Houston OVER the total. With neither of these teams playing for playoff positioning, there's little reason to play conservatively. Yet, the O/U line has come down from its opener. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Houston has seen four of its last five games produce at least 46 combined points. (The other saw 43 points scored.) Overall, on the season, Texan games have averaged 50.1 points. While Cincinnati games have averaged "only" 44.8 points, the Bengals come in confident, having just scored 27 against the Steelers last time out. While the Texans managed only 81 rushing yards against the Colts last week, its worth noting that the OVER is 6-1 the past seven times that they'd rushed for less than 90 yards in their previous game. Look for those stats to improve as this one proves higher-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on Miami/LV UNDER the total. Considering that the Dolphins allow just 18.4 ppg, I believe that this number is generously high. While they're not in Miami's class defensively, having fired their defensive coordinator before last week's game, the Raiders are determined to improve on that side of the ball. Facing an offensively challenged Dolphin team should help in that regard. I expect a heavy dose of the run from both teams, which will help to keep the clock moving. (Both teams rank in the top half of the NFL, in terms of rushing attempts per game.) Over their past six games, the Dolphins only allowed more than 21 points once - and that was against the defending world champs. Take away that game against KC and the Dolphins have allowed 12, 7 and three points over their last three. While many assume all Raider games will be high-scoring, I'm expecting this one to result in a relatively low-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on Pittsburgh/Cincinnati OVER the total. When these teams met earlier, the O/U line was 45. They finished with 46. Now, with both teams having played some recent 'unders' and the Bengals starting Finley at QB, the O/U line is considerably lower. Before, it was above the 44 mark. Now, we're working with an O/U line below the important 41 mark. I feel thats providing us with excellent value. The Steelers are out to prove that "all is fine." The Bengals are out to prove that they're not a joke. Both offenses are going to be motivated to move the ball. Both teams have seen their games average more than 44 points overall, on the season. Eleven of Pittsburgh's 13 games, including each of the past two, have finished with at least 40 points. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on Philadelphia/Arizona OVER the total. While watching the Eagles beat the Saints last week, a number of things stood out to me. Of those, the two most important were: 1. The offense was a lot better with Hurts than with Wentz. He played smart, made good throws while also running very effectively. In fact, both Hurts and Sanders ran for more than 100 yards. Certainly, the offense looked much improved overall. Keep in mind that the Eagles were facing the #1 rated defense in the league. Also, it should be noted that Hurts led the Eagles on a very impressive drive at the end of the first half. Got them all the way down to the 2-yard line, or so, only to bring in Eliott and have him miss a chip-shot field goal. That was a bit of a momentum-killer but it sure wasn't on Hurts. Sean Payton said this of Hurts: " .... was impressive just watching him. I thought he played with poise, made some throws. He was smart. He did a good job." 2. The second important thing that really stood out was that the Eagles' defenders were dropping like flies. Already banged up on that side of the ball, a number of Philadelphia defenders went down. To their credit, the remaining Eagle defenders hung tough. However, a road game against Kyler Murray and the Cardinals is entirely different than a home game against Taysom Hill. The Eagles have given up 30, 22, 27 and 38 points their past four road games, an average of more than 29 ppg. While the Cards, who have faced some tough defenses of late, have scored "only" 26 and 28 points their past two games, it wasn't long ago when they had a stretch of five straight games where they scored 30 or more. Overall, Arizona games are averaging 52.4 points. I expect both offenses to have success in this one, the final combined score finishing above the reasonably low total. 

I'm playing on LA/LV UNDER the total. Needless to say, having just fired their defensive coordinator, the Raiders want to place an emphasis on improved defense. Yes, the Raiders are banged-up on that side of the ball. However, as Gruden says: "We just got to have guys step up." On offense, to try and take some pressure off of the defense, I expect a heavy dose of the run as the Raiders try and control the clock. As for the Chargers, they're off a solid defensive effort, as they limited Atlanta to just 17 points. On the other side of the ball, the Charger offense has only averaged 10 points the past two games. Each of those games finished with 45 or fewer points. While those games were both at home, the Chargers' last two road games have also both finished with 50 or less. Don't be surprised when this one proves lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on Baltimore/Cleveland OVER the total. When these teams met earlier, the O/U line was 47.5. Baltimore did its part to get over that number, scoring 38 points. However, Cleveland managed just six points. We're likely to see a closer game tonight, this time with both teams contributing to the scoring. Indeed, both these offenses were clicking last time out. Lamar and the Ravens dropped 34 points on Dallas. The Browns were even better. They put 41 points on the board, at Tennessee. Speaking of Cleveland, it should be noted that the Browns will be without their top cornerback (Ward) for this one.  I believe that his absence hurts their defense. While Baltimore games are averaging "only" 45.6 points, Cleveland games are averaging a much higher 52.3 points. All things considered, this number is a little low. 

I'm playing on Pittsburgh/Buffalo UNDER the total. On a chilly night in Buffalo, I expect the defenses to steal center stage. The Steelers struggled on offense last week. The receivers dropped balls and they couldn't run the ball when they needed to. They've now been held below 20 points in both December games and they've seen each of their last three games finish below the total. On the other side of the ball, however, the Steelers remain dominant. They allow just 17.6 ppg, the best mark in the NFL. The Bills defense has been improved the past couple of weeks, as they've allowed 24 and 17 points. A closer look shows that they've played four straight against teams from the NFC. Their last three games against AFC teams have all finished with 45 or fewer points, scores of 24-21, 18-10 and 26-17, that one coming against the high-scoring Chiefs. All things considered, I feel that this number is generously high. 

I'm playing on NO/Philadelphia OVER the total. This O/U line came down and is very low, beneath the important 44 mark and the lowest on the entire board. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. I like the fact that the Eagles have finally made the QB switch and I expect that move to have a positive effect. Yes, the Saints' defense has been playing well. This is their third straight road game though and they're facing a desperate team with an aggressive coach. NO games are still averaging 49 points on the season while Philly games are averaging 46.7 points. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on SF/Washington UNDER the total. Both these defenses are very capable. Washington ranks 4th in the NFL in terms of yards allowed per game. On the Rams, Saints and Steelers are better. SF is right behind the Football Team, ranking 6th in that category. Both these teams also want to run the ball with regularity. That, of course, helps to keep the clock moving. Washington has seen six of its past eight games finish with less than 44 points. The only two that didn't were games against Dallas and Detroit. Those two teams rank #31 and #32 (last and second last) in the league in terms of points allowed, per game. Facing a stingier SF defense, determined to bounce back, I expect another relatively low-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on Dallas/Cincinnati OVER the total. I've won with the "over" in each of the Cowboys' last two games. Once again, I feel that the O/U number will prove to be too low. Note that its below the important 44 mark. The Bengals' last four opponents (Miami, Pitt, NYG, Wash) all rank in the top 10 of the league, in terms of points allowed. Now, however, the Bengals face a team which ranks dead last in that category. Here's an excerpt from what I said last week: "... I won with the 'over' in the Cowboys' Thanksgiving Day game. That was against a Washington offense which hadn't scored more than 27 points in a single game all season. Yet, The Football Team exploded for 41 points. The Dallas defense tends to do that to teams. Since allowing 20 points in the first game of the season, the Cowboys have conceded 23 or more to all 10 opponents. They've given up 38 or more points on five different occasions. Not surprisingly, they rank dead last in terms of points allowed (32.6) per game. In other words, Lamar and the Ravens are going to put up a big number. While the Baltimore defense is certainly better, I believe that the Cowboys, still averaging 22 ppg their last three, have the weapons on offense to contribute their own decent chunk of points ..." Sure enough, Dallas gave up 34 more points, while scoring 17 of its own. Expect the Bengal offense to "get healthy," both teams combining for enough points to send the final combined score above the low number. 

I'm playing on Dallas/Baltimore OVER the total. I won with the 'over' in the Cowboys' Thanksgiving Day game. That was against a Washington offense which hadn't scored more than 27 points in a single game all season. Yet, The Football Team exploded for 41 points. The Dallas defense tends to do that to teams. Since allowing 20 points in the first game of the season, the Cowboys have conceded 23 or more to all 10 opponents. They've given up 38 or more points on five different occasions. Not surprisingly, they rank dead last in terms of points allowed (32.6) per game. In other words, Lamar and the Ravens are going to put up a big number. While the Baltimore defense is certainly better, I believe that the Cowboys, still averaging 22 ppg their last three, have the weapons on offense to contribute their own decent chunk of points. The Ravens have allowed at least 19 points in five of their last six, including three straight. Three of those opponents scored 28 or more. All things considered, this number is low. 

I'm playing on Washington/Pittsburgh UNDER the total. I won with the 'over' in Washington's last game. However, that was against Dallas. The Steelers are a far stingier opponent. Yet, the O/U line is basically the same as it was for that game. Even after the big day on Thanksgiving, Washington still ranks only 24th in terms of points scored per game. Meanwhile, the Stelers have allowed 14, 10 and 3 points their last three games. Prior to limiting the Cowboys to 16 points, Washington kept Cincy to just nine. The Steelers allow the fewest points in all of football while Washington ranks seventh in that category. They rank #3 and #4, respectively, in terms of yards allowed per game. Expect a defensive, low-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on Denver/KC UNDER the total. The earlier meeting finished above the total with 59 points. That O/U line was just 45. Since that time, the Broncos have scored progressively less in nearly every game. In the game immediately following KC, they scored 31. After that, they scored 27. However, since that point, they managed only 12, 20 and 3 points. Yet, despite Denver's recent offensive struggles, we're working with a considerably higher O/U line than we were for the earlier meeting. I feel thats providing us with excellent value. Not surprisingly, each of Denver's last three gmaes have finished below the number. They'll be doing everything that they can here to establish the run and keep Mahomes on the sidelines. In the two games that the Chiefs were favored by more than 10.5 points this season, the final scores were 35-9 and 26-10, both final scores staying below the total. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on NY/LV OVER the total. I believe that the NY offense will get going Sunday afternoon. The Raiders gave up 43 points at Atlanta last week after giving up 35 the previous game. While the Jets did struggle to score last game, they had scored 28 and 35 in their previous two and the offense is finally now healthier than it was earlier in the season. I'm not worried about Jacobs being out for the Raiders. Booker is a capable backup and if Jacobs' absence encourages Carr to throw a little more, all the better. The Raiders have seeen 10 of their 11 games, including four straight, produce a minimum of 49 points. I say this one does too. 

I'm playing on Seattle/Philadelphia OVER the total. The Seahawks can score points with the best of them. They average 31.8 ppg. Entering Sunday's action, that's second only to KC's 32.1 ppg. Their 400 yards per game ranks fourth and their 6.6 yards per play, ranks second. In other words, the Eagles are going to have to score of they want to keep up. Given that Seattle ranks just 28th, in terms of points allowed and dead last in terms of total yards allowed, I believe that the Eagles will do exactly that. Wentz reportedly had a good week of practice and the Eagles are planning on working Hurts more into the offense. I say it all adds up to a high-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on Miami/NYJ OVER the total. This season's earlier meeting was low-scoring (24-0) as the Jets couldn't score. While this O/U line is lower than that one was, I'm expecting considerably more points this afternoon. The Jets' offense has gotten rolling the past couple of weeks. Their past two games have had scores of 34-28 and 30-27. The Dolphins are off a low-scoring game. However, that was at Denver against a capable Bronco defense that really came to play that day. The Dolphins' previous two games had scores of 34-31 and 29-21. While some may see the return of Darnold and Fitzpatrick at QB as a negative, remember that these guys were previously the starters. Darnold wasn't working with a full deck before and now he is. Expect both offenses to move the ball, the final combined score finishing above the relatively low number. 

I'm playing on Washington/Dallas OVER the total. The Dallas offense got healthy last week. Dalton threw for three TD's. Elliott ran for more than 100 yards, for the first time all season. The Dallas defense still gave up 450 total yards though. The 31.8 ppg that the Cowboys allow is still the highest in the league. Washington has scored 20 or more points in four straight games, none of those games coming against teams which allow as many points as Dallas. They scored 25 in the earlier game against the Cowboys. They should get 20 or more once again, only this time, expect the Cowboys to contribute A LOT more of their own, sending the final combined score above the number.

I'm playing on Houston/Detroit UNDER the total. Given the current form of these offenses, I believe this number is generously high. The Lions didn't score a single point last time out, getting blanked 20-0 at Carolina. Not too good, considering that those same Panthers had been lit up for 46 points the previous week. The Lions would manage a mere 185 total yards. The Lions are now averaging 22.7 ppg. The Texans can relate. They, too, are averaging just 22.7 ppg. Last time on the road, they scored just seven. On the other side, the Houston defense has made some strides of late; they've allowed an average of 15 ppg the past two games. While I won with the 'over' in last year's Thanksgiving Day game at Detroit, we're working with a much higher number here. I say that it proves to be too high. 

I'm playing on KC/LV UNDER the total. Everyone knows that the Chiefs' offense remains really good. However, its their defense which quietly remains underrated. Their 20.3 ppg allowed ranks #6 in the NFL. After getting lit up for 40 points by these same Raiders, the champs responded by allowing 17, 16 and nine points in their next three games. With an extra week to prepare, thanks to last week's bye, I expect the coaching staff to do a much better job at slowing down the Raiders. The Raiders have recently started to get pretty stingy themselves. Last time out, they limited Denver to 12 points. Remember, they rang in November with a 16-6 win at Cleveland. Prior to last month's high-scoring affair, these teams had seen their previous three meetings all finish below the 50 mark, with combined scores of 49, 38 and 38. Overall, seven of the past 10 meetings have fallen below the number. We're working with a very big number, higher than any of those previous 10 meetings, and I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on Baltimore/New England UNDER the total. I won with the Patriots to go 'over' in their last game, against the Jets. Therefore, you might wonder why I'd go with the 'under' against Baltimore, which has a better offense than New York. Well, there are a number of reasons. The obvious is that the Ravens have a much better defense than the Jets. Last week, they limited the Colts to just 10 points. In fact, they're allowing just 17.8 ppg, which is best in the entire NFL. (By comparison, the Jets allow 29.8 ppg, 27th best in the NFL.) Also, while the Jets were "playing out the string," every game is a big deal for Baltimore. In other words, there should be no lack of defensive intensity. We're also working with a higher O/U line than we were for the MNF game against the Jets, one which climbed from its opener to provide additional line value. It should also be noted that these teams both run the ball. A lot. The Ravens run the ball 33.3 times per game, #1 in the NFL. The Pats run the ball 32.8 times per game, tied for #2. With two stingy defenses and two offenses keeping the clock moving by running the ball with regularity, expect a low-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on NE/NYJ OVER the total. Tough day for the Patriots yesterday, as the Bills (and Dolphins) won. Reality is setting in for even the most diehard Patriot fans. Regardless of what happens tongiht, their long-standing reign at the top of the division will be coming to an end. Of course, the Jets have been playing out the string for awhile now. They've essentially been out of playoff contention the entire season. All that said, this is more of a game for pride than anything else. Those kind of games, in my experience, tend to be more high-scoring. I expect that to be the case tonight. Keep in mind that the O/U line is lower than ANY of the O/U lines yesterday. So, we don't need to have that high-scoring a game, in order to finish above the total. The Pats scored 21 against the Bills last week and now they're facing a Jets team which allows 29.8 ppg. While the Jets' offense has certainly struggled with Darnold behind center recently, I like that Flacco will be in there tonight. The veteran QB had this to say: ''The bottom line is, it's a lot easier going into the game knowing that I'm playing now than it is to come off the bench at some point in the game. I've gotten my feet wet and all those kinds of things,'' he said. ''So, I feel really good going into the game.'' Look for both offenses to "get healthy" the final combined score finishing above the low number. 

I'm playing on Carolina/KC UNDER the total. Mahomes rightfully steals all the headlines. However, the champs are quietly playing very well on the other side of the ball. Last week, they allowed just nine points. Thats three straight weeks that the Chiefs have allowed 17 or fewer points, one of those games coming against previously high-scoring Buffalo. At 19 ppg allowed overall, the Chiefs are tied for third in the league, in terms of points allowed. Now, they'll face a Carolina team which managed only 17 points against Atlanta last week, the second time in three weeks that the Panthers scored 17 or less. I expect the Panthers to have trouble scoring. Since a high-scoring opener against Vegas, the Panthers have seen all seven of their games finish with less than 52 points. Look for this one to do the same. 

I'm playing on Detroit/Minnesota UNDER the total. I looked back at the last 20 meetings between these division rivals and NONE of them had an O/U line this high. Even with the lower totals, this has been a low-scoring series of late. Three of the past four meetings and six of the past eight, have finished below the number. The most recent meeting was last December. The O/U line was 44. The teams combined for just 27 points. Going back a bit further finds the UNDER at 10-3 the past 13 meetings. The Lions have allowed 23 or fewer points in each of their past three on the road. The Vikings held the Packers to just 22 last game. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting, the final combined score staying beneath the generously high number. 

I'm playing on GB/SF UNDER the total. The last 10 meetings between these teams have all had O/U lines in the 40s. This one is higher than any of them and I believe that it'll prove to be too high. While they've got numerous injuries on both sides of the ball, the 49ers remain a team which wants to play stingy defense and pound the ball on the ground. Facing an elite QB like Rodgers, they'll be even more inclined than normal to try and control the clock and keep him on the sidelines. The loss of Kittle is a big blow to their offense, he's their most dangerous player and arguably the top tight-end in the league. Yes, the 49ers had trouble containing Wilson last week. However, the previous week, they held the Patriots to six points. Their last home gmae ended with a score of 24-16. While the Green Bay offense can be explosive it also can be slowed. The Pack managed just 22 points last week and they're less than a month removed from a 10-point effort at Tampa. Look for this game to prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting, the final combined score finishing below the generously high number. 

I'm playing on Dallas/Philly OVER the total. I've actually won with the 'under' in each of Dallas' last two games, against Arizona and Washington. However, those O/U lines were both considerably higher than this one. Now, with Dalton expected to be out, this O/U line has gone even lower than it opened at. I believe its too low. While Dalton was expected to be a quality backup, the offense wasn't working with him running it. So, DiNucci can't possibly be worse. In fact, given the weapons he's got at his disposal, I expect him to be better. Indeed, the Eagles allow 28 ppg and Dallas will score points. On the other side of the ball, however, is where the Cowboys' real problems are. The defense is giving up big yards and big points. They can't stop the run OR the pass. They're allowing a whopping 34.7 ppg. Needless to say, the Eagles are licking their chops. They're not about to show a hated rival any mercy, either. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than most will be expecting. 

I'm playing Seattle/Arizona OVER the total. I won with the 'under' when Arizona last played. Yes, the Cardinal defense played well. However, that was against a Cowboy team playing its first game without Prescott. Now, the Cards face Russell Wilson and the high-flying Seahawks, a team which will score far more points against them than Dallas did. The Seahawks managed "only" 27 points last game. It was the first time that they hadn't cracked the 30 mark. They average a whopping 33.8 ppg, the #1 mark in the NFL. However, the 27 ppg which the Hawks allow ranks them just 19th. While the Arizona defense is good, the New England defense is considered pretty good, too. Yet, Seattle put 35 up against the Pats. Unable to stop Wilson and co, the Cards will need Murray and the offense to make things happen, in order to keep pace. Given that Arizona scored 38 last week and the fact that Seattle has allowed a minimum of 23 in every game, I believe that'll happen. Expect a high-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on Dallas/Washington UNDER the total. You may have seen the Cowboy offense struggle against Arizona. Everyone expect a bit of a drop-off from Prescott to Dalton, but the Dallas offense dropped off a cliff. The reality is that Dalton isn't as bad as he looked. His team surely didn't help him. However, he's also not going to immediatley play the way that Prescott was, as he was playing at an elite level. With the offense having struggled so badly and the offensive line in shambles, I expect a more conservative approach then normal for this big divisional battle. By that, I mean lots of running plays and very short passes. Washington will be bringing pressure and Dalton was vulnerable to that against Arizona. Remember, the NFC East is still there for the taking. Yes, the Dallas secondary has proven vulnerable. However, Washington ranks 28th in the NFL in terms of passing yards, 30th in passing yards per attempt. In other words, Washington isn't built to take advantage of the Cowboys' weakness. Of course, the Cowboys haven't been too good at stopping the run either. However, that is an area which the Football Team will try and exploit. I expect them to employ a heavy dose of the run. Washington comes off a 20-19 game, the fifth game in a row it scored 20 or fewer points. With both teams employing a heavy dose of the run, expect another relatively low-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on NY/Philly UNDER the total. While they had trouble slowing down Baltimore, I expect the Eagles to have considerably more success in doing so against the offensively challenged Giants. Given the state of the NFC East, this is a big game. The Giants won with defense last week, beating Washington by a 20-17 score. It marked the fifth time, through six games, that they scored 20 or fewer points. In fact, their 101 total points scored is the lowest in the NFC and second lowest (Jets are worse) in the entire NFL, among teams which have played six games. (Broncos have scored 100 in five games.) The last two meetings between these teams, here at Philadelphia, have both stayed below the total. Last season's game here had an O/U line of 45 and finished with 40, a 23-17 win for the Eagles. That one went to OT; just 34 points were scored in regulation. Expect another relatively low-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on Arizona/Dallas UNDER the total. This is a very high O/U number and I believe that it'll prove to be too high. Cowboy games have flown over the total. However, Dallas is now without its starting QB and its facing an Arizona team which has been seeing its games stay below the number. Yes, the Cardinals have some dangerous offensive weapons. However, Arizona has still seen all five of its games produce 52 or fewer combined points, the UNDER going 4-0-1. While I respect Dalton, Prescott was playing at a very high level. Yes, the Cowboy offense will still be good. But, a small step back would only be natural. That means that the Cowboys will need to be better defensively. I believe that they can be. Also, a tough Arizona secondary should lead Dallas to run the ball more regularly. It all adds up to this one proving lower-scoring than the shootout which many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on Minnesota/Seattle UNDER the total for the 1st Half. With all due respect to the Seattle offense, I feel that this number is a little high. While the Vikings have struggled defensively, they were better on that side of the ball last game. With the league's leading rusher (Cook) heading their offense, they'll be doing everything they can to sustain long drives and keep Wilson and the Seahawks offense on the sidelines. Yes, these teams did play a high-scoring game (37-30) against each other last December. However, a closer look shows that "only" 27 of those points came in the first half, 40 in the second. They'd also played a few times in recent previous seasons and those games had final scores of 21-7, 10-9 and 38-7. Look for this one to start a little more slowly than many will be expecting, the final combined halftime score staying beneath the generous number. 

I'm playing on Atlanta/GB UNDER the total. With all due respect to Rodgers and co, I believe this number is simply too high. Yes, GB has put up some very big numbers. Yes, the Falcons have been on the wrong side of some crazy comebacks, which has led to some high scores. Thats not going to keep happening though; they may never have a lead to blow in this one in the first place. Either way, those high scores and the high scores in the league in general, have worked in our favor, driving this O/U line up higher than it would have been, if these teams had met a few weeks ago. (The last time these teams met, the O/U line was 50.5 and they combined for 54.) Obviously, the Packer offense has been functioning at a high level. GB is going to be anxious to get the defense performing better though and I believe that's going to be a priority this week. Kingsley Keke has emerged in his absence but the Pack hope to get Kenny Clark back this week and he's huge for their defense. Either way, I see the Packers defense improving this week. Of course, the Falcons will be doing everything in their power to keep Rodgers and co. on the sidelines. They'll get some points. Just not enough to finish above this generously high number. Go Under.