Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-19-15 | San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Clippers -1.5 | Top | 115-119 | Win | 100 | 35 h 33 m | Show |
I am playing on the CLIPPERS. I think Los Angeles is a team that will benefit from the All-Star break and come out strong at home against a Spurs team that sits just a half-game behind the Clippers in the playoff standings. Some may not think a 35-19 team needs a break, but the Clips have had an up and down season where many feel they haven't come close to reaching their full potential yet. I think we'll see a rejuvenated squad that had a chance to focus on defensive woes this week in practice and had a chance to escape the spotlight that has burned brightly from the critics to this point. I believe we'll see them topple a Spurs team that has to trek to the road again after the break in the midst of their annual rodeo road trip. The Clippers were just starting to adjust to life without Blake Griffin before the break, who won't return until at least March after elbow surgery from a staph infection. L.A. lost its first three games without Griffin but won and covered the next two just before the break, thanks to some better defensive play and DeAndre Jordan. The Clippers held two straight foes to under 100 points for a change and Jordan piled up 46 points and 47 rebounds in the two games. He now has three 20-20 performances in the last six contests. I think Jordan provides some problems for the Spurs, who will obviously have to key on him. If he can't score down low, there should be some openings on the perimeter, which has been a sore spot for San Antonio lately. The Spurs are allowing opponents to shoot 39.1 percent from 3-point land over their past five games and I think that could be a big mismatch opportunity for the Clippers. It's also nice to know the Spurs are 0-4 ATS their last four against teams with a .600 or better record at home. |
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02-12-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Chicago Bulls | Top | 98-113 | Win | 100 | 26 h 37 m | Show |
I am playing on CHICAGO. I think the Bulls catch the Cavs in a prime letdown spot here that is way too good to pass up making a play on. The Cavs host LeBron's old team, Miami, Wednesday night and I fully expect all of Cleveland's energy and focus to be poured into that game as far as their week's schedule goes. The Heat beat the Cavs in their first meeting of the season and that sent Cleveland into a 2-10 train wreck of a losing skid and you know James has been salivating to face them again - especially considering the Cavs are red hot right now after winning 13 of their last 14 heading into Wednesday's game. I think Cleveland's mind will still be on the night before by the time they roll into Chicago on Thursday and if it's not on that, it will be on the All-Star break ahead. Kyrie Irving and LeBron are set to jettison off to New York for the game while the rest of the team has visions of some down time. I believe that adds up to a perfect spot for the Bulls, who will be at home and are likely looking for a little payback against the Cavs. They lost and failed to cover in both meetings with Cleveland this year and I expect them to give a big effort here in what is the only NBA game on the slate for the evening. Chicago has a tendency to play to the level of its competition this season too, and I like the fact the Bulls are 5-1 against the spread against the last six winning teams they've faced. 10* Main Event |
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02-11-15 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Oklahoma City Thunder -6 | Top | 89-105 | Win | 100 | 24 h 34 m | Show |
I am playing on OKLAHOMA CITY. I think we are watching the Thunder start to come into their own finally this season and they catch Memphis at a good time on Wednesday at home. The Thunder have won four of their last five games and have covered three of their last four outings, including two straight wins in which they piled up a combined 255 points while covering those spreads by 20 points put together. They'll play a Memphis squad whom they'd like to get a little revenge against after going 0-2 against the Grizzlies this season and Memphis could be in a bit of a letdown spot after handling the NBA's best team, Atlanta, last game. I think the Grizzlies are in for a bit of a rude awakening against a sizzling hot Kevin Durant, who hasn't been held to fewer than 27 points in his last three games and he scored 40 last game against Denver. Durant also showed some signs of nastiness and looked like a guy who wants to lead his team into the playoffs. He got a technical foul for knocking Kenneth Faried to the floor and has been more verbal in games and on the bench. Russell Westbrook is even hotter than Durant right now and when those two guys are on fire, it's hard not to love a play on OKC. Westbrook has been a triple double threat in each of his past six games and has scored at least 40 points in three of his last seven. Those are scary numbers if you're Memphis and it gets even better. OKC is 8-4 against the spread at home against winning teams, which is by far the team's best ATS spot this season. The Thunder are also 22-5-1 ATS in their last 28 home games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* Personal Favorite |
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02-10-15 | Houston Rockets v. Phoenix Suns -1.5 | Top | 127-118 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 20 m | Show |
I am playing on PHOENIX. The NBA is abuzz with Suns talk that Phoenix would rather not hear about after Sunday's game -- the Suns have lost on an astounding four buzzer beaters this season, the most in the league since the Jazz in 2006-07. I think that will serve as extra motivation for the Suns Tuesday night considering Houston was one of the four teams that beat them on a last-second shot when they met in January. That was the fourth straight win and cover for the Rockets over the Suns and I think we'll see a fired up Suns squad Tuesday at home. Phoenix should be helped by the return of team leading scorer Eric Bledsoe, who missed Sunday's buzzer-beating loss against Sacramento so he could be with his wife for the birth of their first child. I don't have any hard stats on this one, but it's not uncommon for a new dad to play like a man on fire in his next game after the birth of his kid and I think Bledsoe will be jacked up for Tuesday's tilt. The Suns haven't been scoring like their usual selves lately but they still rank fifth in the NBA with 105.7 points per game and six players are averaging in double figures. I think they'll do what it takes to slow Houston's James Harden just enough and their edge in depth and energy level will help them pull out the win from there. 10* Main Event |
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02-09-15 | San Antonio Spurs v. Indiana Pacers +4.5 | Top | 95-93 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
I am playing on INDIANA. The Spurs don't have the best timing when it comes to playing the Pacers here. Even if they'd met them a week ago, they'd be facing a much less confident team than they will face Monday night. Indiana enters this contest on its first three-game winning streak of the season after squeaking out a 103-102 victory Sunday at Charlotte. The Pacers were set as 2-point favorites in that matchup, meaning they were just two points away from also covering for their third straight game. The Spurs typically don't mind playing in back-to-back games despite their, ahem, 'experience' but I think they will come into this one a little tired after facing the Raptors Sunday night. Toronto changed the pace of that contest throughout and impressively out-defended San Antonio when it needed to. The Spurs shot just 33.3 percent on field goals and just 25 percent on three-pointers. I think the Spurs will come into this one slightly off-balance and still searching for their road legs in what will be the second of a nine-game road trip that will end on the last day of the month. The Pacers don't mind playing defensive ball with anyone and I think home court and an off-balance Spurs team that is slightly worse at rebounding will all be factors in this one. I'll take the points and the Pacers. 10* Best Bet |
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02-08-15 | Atlanta Hawks v. Memphis Grizzlies -2 | Top | 88-94 | Win | 100 | 23 h 32 m | Show |
I am playing on MEMPHIS. If anyone is going to slow the Atlanta Hawks, it's going to be the best defensive team in the league which is why I like the Grizzlies here on Sunday. Memphis isn't just the best defensive team in the league with only 95.9 points against per game, the Grizz have been off the charts at protecting the hoop lately. They're stifling teams to just 84.8 points per game over their last five outings and holding teams to just 25.5 percent on three-pointers in that span. It's that latter stat that I really like for this game because even though Atlanta plays a fantastic all-around game, the Hawks need their 3-ball to be working to beat the best in the NBA. The Hawks are the best 3-point shooting team in the league and about one third of their points come from treys. That's a huge discrepancy compared to most teams, especially the Grizzlies, who rely on threes for only about 19 percent of their points this season. I foresee this contest being a battle of which team can impose its will and force the other to play to its style. And with the Grizzlies being at home and playing the most suffocating defense we've seen from any team so far this season, I like Memphis to win that battle. And if you're worried about Memphis losing to Minnesota last game, the West's worst team, you can throw that one into the waste basket as far as I’m concerned. I think the Grizzlies simply got caught looking ahead to Sunday's matchup with the NBA's best. 10* Personal Favorite |
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02-07-15 | Chicago Bulls -1.5 v. New Orleans Pelicans | Top | 107-72 | Win | 100 | 17 h 10 m | Show |
I am playing on CHICAGO. The Bulls are mired in a three-game losing streak but I believe one of their biggest problems is one of the easiest to fix: intensity level. When one of your biggest problems at the pro level is you're not trying hard enough consistently enough, it's not that hard to turn it around. "Where do you get your intensity from?" head coach Tom Thibodeau said this week."You get it from your concentration and maximum effort. And how do you build that habit? You build it through repetition like you do through everything else. Practice is important. Practicing together is important. All those things are. Your meetings are important. Shootarounds are important. It's all important." The Bulls come into Saturday's game with two full days off between games, which means they've had plenty of time to work on everything they need to in practice to get some good habits going. It also means Mike Dunleavy has had some added time to get healthy and there's a chance he may play Saturday. With or without Dunleavy, I still like the Bulls here, but with him the Bulls get a much needed bolstering in their perimeter game too and Thibodeau gets some added minutes into his lineup. I think we'll see a different Chicago squad Saturday night that is hungry to finish its current 6-game road streak on a high note after starting it 1-3. 10* Personal Favorite |
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02-06-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Indiana Pacers +5.5 | Top | 99-103 | Win | 100 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Indiana Pacers as my 10* Best Bet Friday. The Pacers play hosts to the surging Cleveland Cavaliers, who will take the court for the second game of back-to-back outings, coming off a high-profile matchup versus the Los Angeles Clippers Thursday. Indiana will try to take advantage of this tough situational/schedule spot. Cleveland has struggled in Indianapolis, covering just once in its last five trips to Bankers Life Fieldhouse, and the home team is a solid 5-0 ATS in the last five meeting between these clubs. The Pacers are aiming for some consistency after alternating wins and losses in their last five games. Indiana is coming off a 114-109 victory at home to the Detroit Pistons Wednesday – a season high in scoring for Indiana. The Pacers have put in some solid offensive efforts in recent outings and will need to pick up the scoring pace to keep up with the Cavs. They’re averaging 103.7 points on 51.3 percent shooting in their last three contests – an NBA best in that span. Cleveland’s winning ways have puffed up its spreads due to the market reacting. However, the Cavs are a costly 9-14 ATS away from home and have played just two of their last 10 on the road. Cleveland is shooting only 43.7 percent as visitors and allowing opponents to put up 101 points per road game. Indiana has a hard-nosed defense, especially at home where teams have gone just 43.6 percent from the field for an average of 96.3 points per game. The Cavaliers playing the second of back-to-backs on the road and the Pacers’ offensive uptick are why I’m playing on Indiana as my 10* Best Bet Friday. |
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02-06-15 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Orlando Magic -3 | Top | 97-103 | Win | 100 | 23 h 40 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Orlando Magic as my 10* Personal Favorite Friday. The Magic are rare favorites at home hosting the lowly Los Angeles Lakers Friday. We’re getting great value with Orlando here, as Los Angeles is on a cross-country road trip and dropped the first two stops of this four-game trek. The Lakers’ annual “Grammy Trip” – with the music award show taking over the Staples Center this week – wraps in Cleveland Sunday, opening up Los Angeles for a major lookahead spot to that weekend showdown with LeBron James & Co. The Lakers are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven road games heading into Friday’s contests in Orlando. The Magic are taking the court for the first times since head coach Jacque Vaughn was fired, looking to snap a 10-game losing skid. Orlando has seen improvement in those final two games, covering at San Antonio and Oklahoma City this week. It lost 110-103 to the Spurs to Wednesday, shooting 50 percent from the floor including a 10-for-21 night from beyond the arc. The Magic get a break on defense against a Lakers team lacking a proven scoring punch. Los Angeles has mustered an average of only 88 points per game in regulation in its last seven games and shoots just 42.8 percent from the field on the road. The Lakers also give up 107.4 points per road game – second most in the NBA. The Magic's shakeup on the sidelines and the Lakers' tough road spot are why I’m playing on Orlando as my 10* Personal Favorite Friday. |
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02-05-15 | Phoenix Suns v. Portland Trail Blazers -4.5 | Top | 87-108 | Win | 100 | 27 h 17 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Portland Trail Blazers as my 10* Personal Favorite Thursday. The Blazers are happy to be home after a 0-3 road trip last week. Portland suffered a bit of a hangover from that rough road patch, just squeaking by Utah at home Tuesday. The Trail Blazers are looking to put together a strong run before the All-Star Break and can take the first step toward that with a win over the Phoenix Suns Thursday. The Blazers got a big boost down low with the return of center Robin Lopez this week. Lopez was out with a hand injury and gives Portland some needed frontcourt depth, taking some of the defensive attention off LaMarcus Aldridge. Lopez is a tough defender and a presence on the boards. He scored 11 points and pulled down six boards with two blocks in his first game back. Lopez looks to be a thorn in the side of his former team Thursday. The Suns aren’t a beefy team up front and have been abused by bigger opponents on the boards this season. Phoenix has a -2.3 rebounding margin and has allowed opponents to grab 12 offensive rebounds per game – third most in the NBA. The Blazers eager to get back on track at home and their ability to dominate the Suns on the glass are why I’m playing on Portland as my 10* Personal Favorite Thursday. |
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02-05-15 | Dallas Mavericks v. Sacramento Kings +4 | Top | 101-78 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Sacramento Kings as my 10* Best Bet Thursday. The Kings are in the midst of a tough patch of games, having just one win in their last 10 contests – a skid that started with a 108-105 overtime loss to the Dallas Mavericks, the same team Sacramento hosts Wednesday night. While most team’s wouldn’t want to face the Mavs in the middle of such a slide, the Kings have always played Dallas tough and have covered the spread in five of their last six meetings, including that Jan. 13 home loss. There's a revenge angle for Sacramento, which snapped an eight-game losing streak with a win over Indiana then followed that with a loss to Golden State Tuesday. The Kings dominated the inside against the Mavericks last time out, winning the rebounding war 59-44 – 12 offensive rebounds – and scoring 54 points in the paint. Sacramento is one of the better teams at getting the ball deep into the paint, averaging 43.9 points in the paint per game this year. Dallas will be playing the second of back-to-back games Wednesday, traveling overnight from the Bay Area immediately following a road game against the Golden State Warriors Tuesday. The Mavericks will be in no shape to body up with the Kings physical frontcourt after chasing the active Warriors up and down the court. Dallas is the fifth-oldest team in the NBA with an average age of 28.5 years old. It shows with a 3-7 ATS mark in their last 10 games with no rest. The Kings' consistent ATS success against the Mavericks and their ability to push around a fatigued Dallas squad are why I’m playing on Sacramento as my 10* Best Bet. |
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02-04-15 | Miami Heat v. Minnesota Timberwolves | Top | 101-102 | Win | 100 | 24 h 26 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Minnesota Timberwolves as my 10* Best Bet Wednesday. The Timberwolves are on the rise, covering the spread in four of their last six games and now have star point guard Ricky Rubio back in the mix. Minnesota fans have to be excited about the combo of Rubio to stud rookie Andrew Wiggins, who has emerged as the next big NBA star. Wiggins has been slowing down a bit, having to shoulder the scoring load for the T-Wolves, but should see a boost with Rubio running the point. Minnesota welcomes a Miami Heat team coming off a physical loss to the Detroit Pistons Tuesday night. The Heat were rolled 108-91 for their third loss in four games, covering the spread only once in that span. Miami has lacked a scoring punch since star guard Dwyane Wade went down with a hamstring injury, averaging only 82 points in those three games, and will be even slower with the ball having to play the second of back-to-back games on the road. The Timberwolves are getting much tougher inside with Nikola Pekovic playing his way back into shape and reserve forward Gorgui Dieng making leaps in bounds in his recent efforts. Minnesota is also counting down the days until Shabazz Muhammad returns, but for now it will continue to improve inside and out in the second half of the season. The T-Wolves' gradual improvement and the Heat running on empty for the second stop of back-to-backs are why I’m playing on Minnesota as my 10* Best Bet Wednesday. |
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02-04-15 | Detroit Pistons v. Indiana Pacers -4 | Top | 109-114 | Win | 100 | 23 h 28 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Indiana Pacers as my 10* Personal Favorite Wednesday. The Pacers host the Detroit Piston inside Bankers Life Fieldhouse Wednesday, catching the Pistons playing the second of back-to-back games after a hard-fought matchup in Miami Tuesday. Detroit has snapped a four-game slide with two big wins against the Heat and Houston Rockets and are ripe for a letdown in this tough schedule spot. The Pistons don’t have a very deep bench, usually going only three or four into their reserves. Detroit leans on its starters for big minutes and with guard Brandon Jennings out for the remainder of the season, the team is missing its motor on both ends of the floor. The Pistons only get 18.7 points per game from their bench – among the lowest averages in the NBA – and will have no choice but to look to these backups for production Wednesday night. The Pacers, on the other hand, have enjoyed an extended break. Indiana hasn’t been in action since January 31, giving them time to rest up and prepare for this pivotal matchup with Detroit. Indiana has only two wins in its last 10 games but it comes into Wednesday having gone 18-7-2 ATS in its last 27 games off three or more days rest. The Pistons' short bench on short rest and the Pacers' extended break and prep time are why I’m playing on Indiana as my 10* Personal Favorite Wednesday. |
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02-03-15 | Golden State Warriors v. Sacramento Kings +9.5 | Top | 121-96 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 10 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Sacramento Kings as my 10* Best Bet Tuesday. The Kings have some revenge in store for the Golden State Warriors Tuesday. The last time these California rivals clashed, Sacramento was embarrassed by a 37-point third quarter eruption from Warriors guard Klay Thompson that eventually gave Golden State a 126-101 home win. With that still fresh in the minds of oddsmakers, books are handing up a pile of points for the home team and there is great value on the Kings Tuesday night. Sacramento gets a boost from the home crowd after a drawn-out road trip that took them out East and included a postponed game due to snow in New York. Golden State could get caught looking past the Kings and at their next two games with Dallas and at Atlanta, especially after what happened between these teams last time. The Warriors haven’t been sharp on the road in recent games, covering just twice in their last eight away from home, most recently a loss at Utah last week. The Kings are going to look to push around the Warriors under the basket, sitting second in the NBA in rebounds with 54.9 total boards per night. That includes 11.1 rebounds on the offensive end and plenty of second looks at the hoop. Golden State has struggled to keep opponents off the glass, and allow an NBA-worst 12.7 offensive rebounds a night. The Warriors were especially weak on the boards in their last three, allowing an average of 15 offensive rebounds in that 1-2 span. The Kings’ out for revenge and the Warriors' weakness on the glass is why I’m playing on Sacramento as my 10* Best Bet Tuesday. |
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02-02-15 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Phoenix Suns +2 | Top | 102-101 | Win | 100 | 27 h 41 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Phoenix Suns as my 10* Best Bet Monday. The Suns get a crack at one of the Western Conference’s top dogs at home when they welcome the Memphis Grizzlies to US Airways Center Monday. Phoenix recorded two solid home wins in its previous appearances in front of the purple and orange faithful, knocking off Eastern Conference contenders Chicago and Washington. Phoenix is a change in gears for the Grizzlies, who are more comfortable playing a plodding, methodical pace. The Suns average 99.3 points per 100 possessions – second fastest in the NBA – and produce 107.4 points on their home court – third highest in the league. Phoenix will look to suck the Grizzlies into a track meet, and get them out of their comfort zone on both ends of the floor. The Suns have picked up their toughness around the hoop in recent games, averaging 56.0 total rebounds an outing over their last three contests. This is a sharp uptick in rebounding for Phoenix, which pulls down an average of just 50 rebounds a night on the season. This also includes a major improvement crashing the offensive glass, after the Suns corralled 15 offensive boards in the loss to Golden State. Memphis is a team that thrives on pushing around opponents for those loose ball. The Grizzlies snatch up 51.5 rebounds an outing, while limiting foes to only 49.9 rebounds overall. The Grizzlies are on a six-game tear and could be ripe for a bit of a letdown after putting Oklahoma City in its place Saturday, with a big statement victory. The Suns’ ability to dictate the pace and their improved work on the boards are why I’m playing on Phoenix as a 10* Best Bet Monday. |
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02-01-15 | Los Angeles Lakers v. New York Knicks -2.5 | Top | 80-92 | Win | 100 | 16 h 8 m | Show |
I’m playing on the New York Knicks as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday. The Knicks welcome a Los Angeles Lakers team making the cross-country hike to the Big Apple for a very early start time Sunday afternoon. Due to the Super Bowl, the NBA schedules its Sunday contests for matinee matchups, meaning this 2 p.m. ET tipoff comes at 11 a.m. back in Los Angeles. The Lakers aren’t used to taking the court so early. And on top of that travel, time shirt and early start, L.A. is vulnerable to a massive letdown spot after stunning the Chicago Bulls in overtime in their most recent outing. It was a big game for the Lakers, with former star forward Pau Gasol returning to the Staples Center for the first time since leaving the team. And the bigger the game, the bigger the fall. We’re taking advantage of this very unique situational spot on Super Bowl Sunday. That win snapped a nine-game losing skid for the Lakers, who have been toothless on offense during this stretch. Los Angeles has managed to score over 100 points in regulation just three times in its last 10 games and shoots just 43.1 percent on the road, mustering only 98.3 points per road game. Those scoring numbers are already declining with Kobe Bryant out for the year with a shoulder injury. New York is licking its chops come the weekend. Rarely are the Knicks the favorites and even fewer are the amount of teams below them on the NBA pecking order. New York is playing some of its best basketball of the season, with four wins in its last six outings, including a solid home victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Knicks have covered in five of their last six overall and the home team has covered the spread in each of the past six meetings between these big-market franchises. The Lakers’ rough situational spot and the Knicks’ improved play is why I’m playing on New York as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday. |
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01-31-15 | Los Angeles Clippers +5 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 105-85 | Win | 100 | 26 h 1 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Los Angeles Clippers as my 10* Best Bet Saturday. |
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01-30-15 | Golden State Warriors v. Utah Jazz +9.5 | Top | 100-110 | Win | 100 | 22 h 3 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Utah Jazz as my 10* Best Bet Friday. |
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01-29-15 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Orlando Magic +4.5 | Top | 115-100 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 52 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Orlando Magic as my 10* Best Bet Thursday. |
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01-28-15 | Washington Wizards v. Phoenix Suns -5 | Top | 98-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
I am playing on PHOENIX. The Wizards will be playing their third West Coast game in five nights when they visit Phoenix Wednesday and the Suns aren't the kind of team you want to be facing on weary legs. Phoenix is the third highest scoring team in the NBA and is scoring even more lately with 110.8 points per game over the team's last five compared to a season average of 107.4. The Wiz have been lighting it up a little lately too with at least 103 points in each of their last three games, but they are a little banged up heading into this one. Forward Paul Pierce is questionable with a toe injury and NBA assist leader John Wall is questionable with an Achilles injury. Don't count on either one missing out, but even if they do play I wonder how long they can keep pace with a Phoenix team that loves to run the floor. Phoenix has lost two in a row, but I like the Suns to bounce back here with a more focused effort on Wednesday. They have run into technical foul trouble lately and coach Jeff Hornacek is cracking down on his team. "Something is going to have to be done; we don’t play them, we continue to sit them like this or we get new guys in here that want to win a championship," Hornacek said after a loss to Clippers on Sunday. I like Phoenix to come back strong here against what is quickly becoming a road weary Wizards team. 10* Personal Favorite |
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01-28-15 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Utah Jazz +6.5 | Top | 94-89 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
I am playing on UTAH. The Jazz have made some recent moves that are giving the team a bit of a new look when it takes the court and I like that new look to cover the number at home Wednesday. Coach Quin Snyder has begun starting Dante Exum at point guard and he now has Trey Burke coming off the bench to give him a better one-two punch. The Jazz won their first two games since Snyder made the move (though they lost to Boston last game) and the team appears to be improving all around. Exum brings a faster pace to Utah and over the two wins he averaged 14 points with some hot shooting from 3-point range (8-of-15) to go along with 4.5 assists. Burke averaged 14.5 points in the two wins while playing 25 minutes and the shared playing time seems to be giving the Jazz a much needed lift. I like Utah to cover here against a Clippers squad the Jazz have covered two of three games against this year despite losing all three straight up. L.A. is playing its third game in four nights against fast paced teams, albeit the Jazz might be considered newly so. I think it's a lot to ask the Clippers to cover this number on the road on Wednesday and I'm taking the Jazz. 10* Best Bet |
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01-27-15 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Miami Heat -4 | Top | 109-102 | Loss | -102 | 21 h 12 m | Show |
I am playing on MIAMI. The Heat are playing like a new team these days and the secret behind why might be out of the bag after this past weekend. His name is Hassan Whitehead. |
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01-26-15 | Denver Nuggets +12.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers | Top | 98-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Denver Nuggets as my 10* Best Bet Monday. |
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01-25-15 | Detroit Pistons v. Toronto Raptors -6 | Top | 110-114 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 23 m | Show |
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01-22-15 | Brooklyn Nets v. Los Angeles Clippers -11.5 | Top | 84-123 | Win | 100 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
I am playing on the CLIPPERS. This game is as much about playing on the Clippers as it is about playing against the Nets. |
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01-22-15 | San Antonio Spurs v. Chicago Bulls +5 | Top | 81-104 | Win | 100 | 23 h 8 m | Show |
I am playing on CHICAGO.The Bulls are in a bit of a slump but I believe their problems are somewhat straightforward to fix and oddsmakers are being too generous here. |
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01-21-15 | Indiana Pacers +11.5 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 91-110 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
I am playing on INDIANA 10*. Atlanta has been on a quite a streak lately but I think this is a few too many points for them to cover. The Pacers have lost five straight and are desperate for a strong effort. Keep in mind that four of Indiana’s five losses during this streak have been by less than double digit points. Indiana has been strong on the road the road as a betting team with 14 ATS wins compared to just nine ATS losses this season. Atlanta has gotten the best of Indiana the last two meetings this season so revenge will be on the mind of the Pacers. The Hawks have a high profile home game coming up against a strong Oklahoma City Thunder side on Friday night that is sure to attract some media attention. Don’t be surprised if Atlanta gets caught looking ahead to that game a little bit here. Atlanta has been on massive ATS streak here over the past little while and is indeed a strong team. However, as the streak continues the points spread continues to get higher for the team and this spread is one of the highest it has had to cover so far this season. I expect the Pacers to provide a much tougher test than most will be expecting. INDIANA 10* Best Bet |
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01-17-15 | Golden State Warriors v. Houston Rockets -2.5 | Top | 131-106 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Houston Rockets as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday. |
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01-17-15 | Atlanta Hawks v. Chicago Bulls +2.5 | Top | 107-99 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Chicago Bulls as my 10* Best Bet Saturday. |
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01-16-15 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Utah Jazz -7.5 | Top | 85-94 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
am playing on UTAH. I love this spot for the Jazz Friday night at home against the Lakers. The two biggest reasons are a huge improvement on defense for the Jazz and a Lakers team playing in one of its worst situations.
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01-14-15 | Washington Wizards v. Chicago Bulls -5.5 | Top | 105-99 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Chicago Bulls as my 10* Personal Favorite Wednesday. |
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01-14-15 | Atlanta Hawks v. Boston Celtics +7 | Top | 105-91 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Boston Celtics as my 10* Best Bet Wednesday. |
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01-12-15 | Houston Rockets v. Brooklyn Nets +7 | Top | 113-99 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Brooklyn Nets as a 10* Monday. Brooklyn hosts the Houston Rockets Monday, who are stacking the frequent flyer miles recently. Houston was in New York to play the Knicks Thursday, then had to fly home for a game against the Utah Jazz Saturday, before heading back to the Big Apple to face the Nets. Brooklyn hopes to catch a jet-lagged Rockets squad Monday night. Houston has played five of its last seven away from home and isn’t nearly as tough defensively on the road, allowing foes to average 101.5 points per road game compared to just 92.4 points against inside the Toyota Center. The Nets have dropped five straight but remain competitive most nights thanks to their controlled pace and stingy defense. Brooklyn has limited opponents to just over 92 points per game in this five-game slide. The Nets can throw some big bodies at the Rockets, keeping center Dwight Howard busy with the combo of Mason Plumlee and Brook Lopez down low. Not only are those two big men physical on the defensive end but they’re helping pick up the slack on offense. Brooklyn’s offense plays a much slower pace than Houston, averaging 94.3 points per 100 possessions. The Nets can lure the Rockets into a methodical half-court game if they can take care of the basketball. Houston thrives on transitioning off turnovers, and Brooklyn can’t allow those mistakes to end up as easy buckets. The Rockets’ frantic travel schedule and Brooklyn’s underrated defense is why I’m playing on Brooklyn as a 10* Monday. |
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01-10-15 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Chicago Bulls -7.5 | Top | 87-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Chicago Bulls as a 10* Personal Favorite Saturday. The Bulls have a bad taste in their mouths after getting rolled by the Washington Wizards Friday night. Chicago is a resilient team and will take out those frustrations on the lowly Milwaukee Bucks inside the United Center Saturday. The Bulls couldn’t slow down the Wizards' attack, which fired 47.7 percent from the field and knocked down eight of its 15 looks from beyond the arc. Chicago also committed 16 turnovers in the loss. Nights like those often leave players eager to get back on the court and erase the poor showing. Luckily, for the Bulls and us, they don’t have to wait long to do so, and present great value as a home side Saturday. Milwaukee brings a bit of momentum into this matchup, which trims the spread a touch, earning back-to-back wins over Minnesota and Philadelphia – the Bucks’ fellow basement dwellers. Milwaukee is very small inside right now, with center Larry Sanders in limbo, forward Ersan Ilyasova out with a concussion, and rookie Jabari Parker lost for the year. Chicago’s backcourt combo of Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler continue to struggle from the floor so expect the Bulls to get on the backs of their big men in this matchup, and exploit a thin Milwaukee forward corps. Joakim Noah is working his way back to health and has some talented forwards around him in Pau Gasol and reserve center Taj Gibson. Chicago often dominates inside when playing at home, averaging 45.1 points in the paint in the Windy City, compared to just 38.3 on the road. The Bulls’ anxiousness to erase Friday's poor performance and their dominance inside against a thin Bucks frontcourt is why I’m playing on Chicago as a 10* Personal Favorite Saturday. |
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01-05-15 | Atlanta Hawks v. Los Angeles Clippers -5 | Top | 107-98 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
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01-05-15 | Dallas Mavericks v. Brooklyn Nets +6.5 | Top | 96-88 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
I am playing on BROOKLYN. I like that Brooklyn is getting a small pile of points at home here tonight in a matchup where both teams are playing on zero rest. |
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01-02-15 | Atlanta Hawks v. Utah Jazz +4.5 | Top | 98-92 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 44 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Utah Jazz as my 10* Non-Conference Game of the Week Friday. The Jazz play hosts to the Atlanta Hawks, one of the hottest teams in the NBA. The Hawks have won eight of their last 10 contests, including a statement win against the Cleveland Cavaliers in their last outing. The market is jumping on Atlanta’s success and this spread is puffed up a bit to reflect that shift in betting action. That opens up value on Utah, especially with this being the first stop of a three-game Western Conference road run for the Hawks, who could get caught looking ahead to matchups in Portland and in Los Angeles. The Jazz are playing some of the best basketball of their season so far, with wins coming in five of their last seven games. In fact, Utah has been a solid wager with ATS victories in seven of its previous 10 outings, including back-to-back home wins over Philadelphia and Minnesota. The Jazz have tightened up their defense during this stretch, allowing just under 92 points during that seven-game span – a sharp decline from their season defensive average of 100.0 points per game. Utah has trimmed that number to 88.7 points over its last three, with foes shooting just 41.8 percent. The Jazz playing solid defense at home against a Hawks squad hitting the highway with some inflated odds if why I’m playing on Utah as my 10* Non-Conference Game of the Week Friday. |
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12-29-14 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Charlotte Hornets -3 | Top | 104-94 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Charlotte Hornets as my 9* Personal Favorite Monday. The Milwaukee Bucks visit the Hornets, picking up their busy road schedule Monday night. The Bucks seem to be hitting the wall with three losses in their last four games and key players on the sidelines. |
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12-26-14 | San Antonio Spurs +3.5 v. New Orleans Pelicans | Top | 90-97 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
I am playing on SAN ANTONIO. The Spurs looked flat in a loss to Oklahoma City on Christmas Day and I believe they’ll bounce back today against the Pelicans. |
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12-26-14 | Indiana Pacers v. Detroit Pistons +3 | Top | 109-119 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
I am playing on DETROIT. Despite a four-game losing streak, the Pistons are showing some signs of coming together as a team and I like them to take a win from the sub-par Pacers today. |
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12-25-14 | Golden State Warriors v. Los Angeles Clippers -2.5 | Top | 86-100 | Win | 100 | 30 h 1 m | Show |
10* Clippers. Analysis before 10am PST |
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12-23-14 | Boston Celtics v. Orlando Magic -2.5 | Top | 95-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Orlando Magic as my 10* Personal Favorite Tuesday. Orlando plays host to a Boston Celtics team trying to find a new identity after dealing away point guard Rajon Rondo last week. The Magic are getting solid value at home Tuesday. Boston’s up-tempo attack was missing that extra gear in a 100-84 road loss to the Miami Heat Sunday. The Celtics, who play one of the fastest paces in the NBA, scored a season-low 84 points on 39.8 percent shooting. Marcus Smart took over the point guard duties and Jameer Nelson came off the bench, failing to fill the scoring punch Rondo provided. This Celtics team has plenty of work to do to plug those gaps but hitting the road won’t help the cause. Orlando is a solid defensive team, giving up 99.3 points per outing, and plays one of the more methodical paces in the game – averaging 94.6 per 100 possessions. It could drag this game into a snail's pace and force Boston to play a halfcourt set. The Magic remain one of the better outside shooting teams in the NBA, knocking down 37.4 percent of their looks from beyond the arc. That number bumps up to 38.6 percent inside the Amway Center. Orlando is getting terrific production from reserve guard Evan Fournier, who has knocked down 40.7 percent of his 3-point attempts and comes into Tuesday with the hot hand, hitting seven of his 12 shots from distance. If Orlando continues to knock down 3-point buckets, that could put some serious space between them and Boston on the scoreboard – a gap that the Celtics offense may not be able to close with the rotation a mess and the offensive identity in flux. A Boston offense in turmoil and the Magic’s sharp shooting from outside is why I’m playing on Orlando as my 10* Personal Favorite Tuesday. |
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12-20-14 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Los Angeles Clippers -10 | Top | 102-106 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
I am playing on the CLIPPERS. Los Angeles is laying a bunch of points but that doesn't bother me much here and I think they'll handily take care of the Bucks tonight. |
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12-19-14 | Toronto Raptors v. Detroit Pistons +8 | Top | 110-100 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
I am playing on DETROIT. Despite Detroit’s troubles this season, the team is showing some positive signs and I believe the Pistons are in a good spot to take the points Friday night. |
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12-17-14 | Dallas Mavericks v. Detroit Pistons +6.5 | Top | 117-106 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 46 m | Show |
I am playing on DETROIT. The Pistons have shown signs of playing better recently with two wins in their last three games and I believe we’ll see a team hungry for a win tonight after failing to give the Motor City faithful a victory on home court in their last 10 games at the Palace. Detroit went 2-1 on its recent West Coast road trip that ended with a 22-point drubbing at the hands of the Clippers. I think we can throw that last game out for what was likely a weary Pistons squad that was playing its third game in four nights in the Pacific Time Zone. The good news in that blowout is that Jodie Meeks had a chance to see some floor time and he scored 20 points in 29 minutes. I think that could be just what he needed in his third game since returning from injury and I believe Detroit will start to see a much-needed contribution from him from 3-point range, where Detroit has struggled all season. Trade rumors are swirling around the Pistons these days and that’s another reason I like them right now. It’s reasonable to think some players may want out of this losing squad that seems desperate for answers and sometimes we see teams elevate their play with potential trades in the works. I like that Detroit is getting a handful of points at home here also. The Mavs are coming off a win over the Knicks last night and they tend to scrape out wins, but not cover in the second game of back-to-backs. They are 4-1 straight up in that spot this season but just 1-4 against the spread. 10* Best Bet |
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12-12-14 | Detroit Pistons +10 v. Phoenix Suns | Top | 105-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
I am playing on DETROIT. I believe the Pistons are going to play with a little desperation tonight as they aim to avoid tying a franchise-worst 14-game losing streak. I believe that, along with a few other elements, will help them cover against the Suns tonight and I anticipate it happening with room to spare. |
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12-10-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Minnesota Timberwolves +10.5 | Top | 82-90 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
10* T-Wolves. Analysis before 10am PST. |
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12-10-14 | Boston Celtics v. Charlotte Hornets -2.5 | Top | 87-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Charlotte Hornets as my 10* Personal Favorite Wednesday. The Hornets have enjoyed an extended break following a win over New York that snapped a 10-game losing skid. That’s given Charlotte time to focus on what’s working and bring some important bodies back before taking on a Boston Celtics squad that’s already had a busy week. |
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12-06-14 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Detroit Pistons -9 | Top | 108-101 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Detroit Pistons as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday. The Pistons take on the Philadelphia 76ers playing the second night of back-to-back games after a hard-fought contest against the Thunder Friday night. |
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12-03-14 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Washington Wizards -9 | Top | 95-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
10* Wizards. Analysis before 10am PST |
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12-02-14 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Detroit Pistons -1 | Top | 106-96 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 16 m | Show |
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11-28-14 | New Orleans Pelicans v. Atlanta Hawks -2.5 | Top | 91-100 | Win | 100 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Atlanta Hawks as my 10* Personal Favorite Friday. The Hawks host the New Orleans Pelicans, who are in a grueling stretch of games in which they play nine of 11 contests away from the Big Easy. |
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11-24-14 | Phoenix Suns +5 v. Toronto Raptors | Top | 100-104 | Win | 100 | 21 h 6 m | Show |
I am playing on PHOENIX. The Raptors are getting more attention than just about anyone would have projected at this point in the early season and as a result we're going to start seeing their lines inflate. I feel that's the case Monday night at home when they're laying a handful against the smoking-hot Suns. The Suns have won four in a row and I expect them to pour everything they have into their final game of a six-game road trip in Toronto. Phoenix is playing fantastic team basketball right now and using a deep bench to stay fresh during the club's travels. Head coach Jeff Hornacek said "There is something about being on the road" after Saturday's win over Indiana and talked about how his team is finding its groove. Gerald Green scored a game-high 23 points against the Pacers while Isaiah Thomas chipped in with 16 with both players coming off the bench. No player saw more than 26 minutes on Saturday night, which is why I fully expect the Suns to maintain top speed tonight. Phoenix is the fourth leading scoring team in the NBA with 105.3 points per game and they are the best free throw shooting team. They also hold the edge in rebounding margin over the Raptors, who are one of the worst rebounding squads in the league with a margin of -2.31. I like the Suns to get it done against a slightly overvalued Raptors team and I'll take the points while I can get them. This is just the third time all year Phoenix has been an underdog. 10* Best Bet |
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11-19-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Denver Nuggets -6.5 | Top | 100-107 | Win | 100 | 29 h 44 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Denver Nuggets as my 10* Revenge Best of the Best Wednesday. The Nuggets get a chance to even the score with the Oklahoma City Thunder Wednesday, hosting OKC after losing to the Thunder 102-91 on the road earlier this month. |
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11-18-14 | New York Knicks +3.5 v. Milwaukee Bucks | Top | 113-117 | Loss | -109 | 28 h 38 m | Show |
I am playing on NEW YORK. The Knicks finally snapped their streak of futility after seven games with a win over the Denver Nuggets on Sunday. I like the Knicks to continue their winning ways Tuesday night in Milwaukee and they even have a few points to work with as the underdog. New York is finally showing signs of life in its new and much talked about triangle offense implemented by coach Derek Fisher this season. The Knicks managed 100 points or more in each of their last two games, which were the first games they reached triple digits all season. “Every game I'm starting to become a little bit more comfortable with my role,” Carmelo Anthony said after the game. Anthony poured in 28 points and had just 14 field goal attempts on Sunday and he’s made 20 of his past 27 shots over his last six quarters for 58 points. With Anthony playing more effectively, J.R. Smith had his best game of the year Sunday also with 28 points of his own. I don’t feel oddsmakers quite believe the Knicks have sorted out their woes yet, which is why we’re getting a good number on New York here on Tuesday. I expect the cat to be out of the bag in another game or two and every NBA bettor will soon know the Knicks have found their offensive rhythm. 10* Best Bet - Knicks |
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11-17-14 | Houston Rockets v. Memphis Grizzlies -4 | Top | 93-119 | Win | 100 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
I am playing on MEMPHIS. The Grizzlies have won 19 straight games at home and catch Houston in a great spot on home court on Monday. The Rockets are playing the second game in a back-to-back situation after facing Oklahoma City last night and this is their third game in four nights. Houston did try to use its bench at OKC in a game in which they scored just 69 points, but their two stars James Harden and Dwight Howard each played over 37 minutes apiece. I believe that’s an especially tough spot for Howard, who will face his toughest post challenge of the season with the Grizzlies’ duo of Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph. The pair have helped lead Memphis to a 9-1 start to the season and are a huge reason why they lead the NBA in points allowed at 91.3 and rank fourth in defensive efficiency. Memphis is also getting fantastic back court play right now from point guard Mike Conley, who’s average six assists and almost 17 points per game. The return of Courtney Lee on Nov. 5 has been a huge help also. He’s averaging 15.5 points on 53.3 percent shooting in the six games since his return. A defensive stalwart on the road is a brutal matchup for the Rockets during this grinding stretch of their schedule. I believe Memphis will continue its winning ways at home and cover the small number set by oddsmakers. 10* Personal Favorite |
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11-15-14 | Phoenix Suns v. Los Angeles Clippers -6.5 | Top | 107-120 | Win | 100 | 29 h 8 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Los Angeles Clippers as a 10* Situational Best of the Best Saturday. The Clippers have enjoyed an extended break, with their last game coming five days ago. That’s a much-needed hiatus after an inconsistent start to the year. Los Angeles will have fresh legs against the Phoenix Suns, who are playing the second half of back-to-back games Saturday night. The Suns roll into L.A. fresh off a home loss to the Charlotte Hornets Friday night. Phoenix, which will be playing its third game in four nights Saturday, crumbled in the fourth quarter after having a one-point lead, giving up 29 points to the Hornets in the final frame. The Suns have allowed opponents to top the 100-point plateau in six of their last seven games and rank 24th in the league in defense. The Clippers hope the time off worked out the kinks in their offense. Los Angeles is shooting 44.9 percent from the field and averaging just over 100 points per game, after posting 108 points per outing in 2013 – tied for tops in the NBA.The Clippers won’t need too much extra in the points department to edge a weary Suns team, about to tip off a six-game road trip which will send them East for most of the month. This situational matchup, with the Clippers well rested and the Suns going back-to-back nights, is why I’m playing on Los Angeles as a 10* Situational Best of the Best Saturday. |
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11-14-14 | Utah Jazz v. New York Knicks -3 | Top | 102-100 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
I’m playing on the New York Knicks as a 10* Personal Favorite Friday. The Knicks welcome a road weary Utah Jazz team to Madison Square Garden and try to snap a six-game losing slide in what is shaping up to be a must-win game for New York. The Knicks have stumbled out of the blocks, falling back in the Eastern Conference standings. New York’s offense has struggled to find its form in head coach Derek Fisher’s new triangle offense, coming into Friday ranked among the bottom of the league in scoring. However, star forward Carmelo Anthony is starting to heat up – scoring 27 points on 10-of-17 shooting in the loss to Orlando - and can spark this offense if he finds his stroke. The Jazz may be the perfect opponents to help New York end this slide. Utah’s defense is giving up 102.2 points per game to start the season, and allowed Atlanta to shoot better than 51 percent from the field in their loss to the Hawks Wednesday. On the other side of the floor, the Jazz don’t pose much of an offensive threat to the Knicks, managing just 90.5 points per game over their last four contest. New York has owned Utah in recent meetings, having covered the spread in 20 of their previous 26 head-to-head battles, including a 9-0 ATS winning streak against the Jazz inside MSG. A desperate Knicks teams and a road-weary Jazz side is why I’m playing on New York as a 10* Personal Favorite Friday. |
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11-12-14 | Orlando Magic v. New York Knicks -6 | Top | 97-95 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
I am playing on the KNICKS. While New York is still struggling to find any sort of rhythm, the good news is that the Knicks are catching the right team at the right time to get back on track. The Magic are coming off an excruciating loss to the Raptors last night during which they held a double-digit lead at one point. Orlando collapsed in the final quarter and was outscored 32-17 to lose 104-100. “It’s very hard, but it’s basketball,” guard Evan Fournier said after the loss. “I feel like I’m saying the same stuff for five games: We play good and we have a little stretch where we just don’t pay attention to the details, and that’s basically where we lose the game.” Magic coach Jaque Vaughn had to play his starters more than he likely would’ve wanted to in a back-to-back situation with four of his starting five playing at least 39 minutes each. But the Magic were desperately trying to salvage the win and managing for tonight’s game against the Knicks went out the window. I believe the Knicks will be able to take advantage of a fatigued and demoralized Magic squad on home court tonight. Orlando went 5-13 in the second game of back-to-backs last season and the Knicks have won and covered nine of the last 10 meetings with Orlando. 10* Personal Favorite |
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11-11-14 | Orlando Magic +11 v. Toronto Raptors | Top | 100-104 | Win | 100 | 28 h 59 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Orlando Magic as my 10* Best Bet Tuesday. The Magic head north of the border to face the Toronto Raptors Tuesday night. Toronto has jumped out to a strong start to the season but has built that record against some softer opponents. The Raptors added another tick to their win column with a blowout over Philadelphia Sunday. Toronto is surprising some with its 6-1 record to open the year but a quick glance at who those victories have come against will make you think twice about Toronto’s elite status. The Raptors have puffed up their odds with wins over the hapless Sixers, Celtics, Hawks and Tuesday’s opponents the Magic, and taken advantage of teams missing key players – Wizards and Thunder. Those six clubs have a combined record of 14-25 and Washington is currently the only one over .500. Unlike the overvalued Raptors, the Magic have been very undervalued in their recent outings. Orlando has covered in three of its last four games – all of those ATS wins coming as an underdog. The Magic have done a good job defending in that span, giving up just over 96 points in regulation in those four contests. That’s a major improvement on Orlando’s season average of 101 points against. The Raptors’ soft opening schedule and the Magic’s new-found defense is why I’m playing on Orlando as my 10* Best Bet Tuesday. |
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11-09-14 | Golden State Warriors v. Phoenix Suns +1 | Top | 95-107 | Win | 100 | 26 h 38 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Phoenix Suns as my 10* Best Bet Sunday. Phoenix is at home hosting a Golden State Warriors side coming off a huge game against the Houston Rockets Saturday night. Golden State will be ripe for a letdown after mixing it up with the Western Conference-leading Rockets. Back-to-back games will have the Warriors up-tempo offense a step slower, which will benefit a Phoenix side rested up and motivated after a crushing loss to Sacramento in two overtimes Friday night. The Suns are planning on picking up the pace with their offense – perfect timing to put Golden State on its heels. Phoenix opened that loss to Sacramento with a 36-point first quarter before pumping the breaks the rest of the game. Head coach Jeff Hornacek liked what he saw in that opening frame and is telling his backcourt to pick up the pace instead of walking into the offense. The Suns have the horses to match the Warriors' pace, scoring an average of 103.2 points per game to start the season. Phoenix has covered in four of its previous five meetings with Golden State and has come away as an ATS victor in six of its last eight games versus the Warriors inside US Airways Center. A letdown spot for the Warriors and the Suns' commitment to pushing the pace is why I’m playing on Phoenix as my 10* Best Bet Sunday. |
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11-08-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Los Angeles Clippers -3.5 | Top | 102-106 | Win | 100 | 23 h 8 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Los Angeles Clippers. Los Angeles is try to erase a bad loss to Golden State when the Clippers host the Portland Trail Blazers Saturday. Los Angeles has stumbled to open the schedule and head coach Doc Rivers ripped into this players, hoping to light a fire for this game. The Clippers have been terribly inconsistent to start the year, following wins with losses in their last four contests. Los Angeles’ defense isn’t where it needs to be, allowing more than 104 points per game, but Saturday offers a chance to make a statement against a hungry team trying to leapfrog L.A. in the Western Conference. Portland is coming off two straight wins over Cleveland and Dallas, and is bound for a letdown on the road Saturday. The Blazers offense depends a lot on PG Damian Lillard to create chances, and when he struggles so does Portland. Los Angeles will throw a lot of bodies at Lillard Saturday, using Chris Paul, Jordan Farmar and Chris Douglas-Roberts to disrupt his night. The Clippers frontcourt duo of Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan match up well with Blazers versatile big man LaMarcus Aldridge and have the athletic ability to stay with him inside and out. Aldridge put up just 16 and 20 points in the past two games and will have limited looks Saturday. The Clippers getting a wake-up call and bad matchups for the Blazers is why I’m playing on Los Angeles. 10* |
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11-06-14 | Dallas Mavericks v. Portland Trail Blazers -2 | Top | 87-108 | Win | 100 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Portland Trail Blazers as my 10* TNT Game of the Week Thursday. The Blazers are coming off a statement win over the Cleveland Cavaliers at home and now try to make waves in their own conference with a victory over the Dallas Mavericks in the Rose Garden Thursday night. Portland did a great job defensively against the Cavaliers, limiting Cleveland to 82 points on 36.5 percent shooting. The most impressive performance was the effort put in by Wesley Matthews, who checked LeBron James to 4-of-12 shooting and only 11 points. The Trail Blazers' hard-nosed defense faces a Dallas offense that ranks No. 1 in the league after just four games – averaging 111.8 points a night. The Mavericks are opening a tough stretch of schedule that has them in action three of the next four nights. Dallas’ defense hasn’t been the tightest to open the year, giving up 105 points per game so far and allowing basement teams like Boston and Utah to hang over 100 points on them in the first four contests. Portland has plenty of firepower as well. It boasts one of the best inside-out combos in Damian Lillard, who woke up from his scoring slumber with 27 points versus the Cavs, and forward LaMarcus Aldridge, who is a tough matchups for the Mavericks on both ends of the floor. The Blazers’ production will see a major increase with Lillard back on track after he misfired in the first three games of the year. A dreadful Dallas defense and a Blazers team rounding into form is why I’m playing on Portland as my 10* TNT Game of the Week Thursday. |
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11-05-14 | New York Knicks v. Detroit Pistons -4 | Top | 95-98 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Detroit Pistons as my 10* Personal Favorite Wednesday. The Pistons play host to the New York Knicks, who are coming off a loss to Washington Tuesday night. Detroit is hungry for its first win of the season and its physical brand of basketball will wear down a Knicks side playing the second half of back-to-back games. The Pistons had the misfortune of opening the season with two straight road games, then completely laid an egg against Brooklyn at home this weekend. Detroit has had an extended break to work out those early-season kinks and new head coach Stan Van Gundy has his team prepared to face the Knicks Wednesday. New York was rolled by the Wizards, losing 98-83 after getting outscored 58-38 in the second half. That late letdown is a sign of a fatigued team. The Knicks have a minus-6.5 point second-half scoring differential to start the year – sixth lowest in the NBA – and shot just 37 percent from the field Tuesday. Detroit is a big physical team that bullies its way inside and crashes the boards hard, ranking as one of the top rebounding clubs in the league. That bruising style of play will wear down an already-tired New York side that kicks off a three-game road trip in Motown Wednesday night. A hungry and hefty Pistons side and a Knicks team running on empty is why I’m playing Detroit as my 10* Personal Favorite Wednesday. |
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11-04-14 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Portland Trail Blazers +3 | Top | 82-101 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Portland Trail Blazers as my 10* Best Bet Tuesday. The Blazers are getting discounted at home against the overhyped Cleveland Cavaliers, opening a three-game Western road trip Tuesday. Cleveland enters Tuesday’s game coming off a hard-fought overtime win against the Chicago Bulls Halloween night. The Cavaliers aren’t crushing opponents as many predicted, instead stumbling through the same chemistry issues LeBron James faced when he joined the Miami Heat. Cleveland is nowhere near as solid on defense as the Heat were and it’s shown in the early goings. Portland is always a tough team inside the Rose Garden, and is looking to right the ship after back-to-back losses. The Trail Blazers need more from All-Star guard Damian Lillard, who is expected to play Tuesday after nursing an abdominal injury. Lillard is shooting under 27 percent from the field to start the year but will rise to the challenge of Cleveland’s stud PG Kyrie Irving. Last season, Lillard hung 36 and 28 points on the Cavs in their two meetings. While the stars will shine when these teams collide, the difference will likely be Portland’s ability to go down the bench compared to Cleveland’s shallow reserves. The Blazers can bring in veteran bodies like C Chris Kaman and PG Steve Blake at those key positions, and backups Will Barton and Thomas Robinson are instant energy players. Cleveland’s bench ranks third last in production and doesn’t get much beyond swingman Tristan Thompson. The Blazers’ depth and Lillard’s dominance versus the Cavaliers is why I’m playing on Portland as my 10* Best Bet Tuesday. |
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10-30-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Los Angeles Clippers -11 | Top | 90-93 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 19 m | Show |
I’m playing on the Los Angeles Clippers as a 10* Thursday. The Clippers have a chance to get a leg up on the Oklahoma City Thunder early in the season, taking on an OKC team without NBA MVP Kevin Durant. These head-to-head matchups are very important for L.A. and could be a major factor once Durant returns and the Western Conference playoff races take shape. The Thunder looked lost in their first game without Durant at the center of the offense. Oklahoma City was dropped 106-89 by Portland Wednesday night, failing to cover as a 9-point road underdog in the Rose Garden. Russell Westbrook scored 38 in the loss, but the Thunder received little offensive help outside of that, shooting a combined 40.7 percent and managing just 12 points in the fourth quarter. Oklahoma City is used to Durant creating points when the offense breaks down as well as finding scoring chances for his teammates when defenses key on the dynamic forward. The Thunder are reliant on his ability to stretch the floor and draw bigger defenders away from the hoop with his range from outside. Los Angeles has plenty of size and talent around the basket and should dominate the Thunder’s frontcourt with Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan and Spencer Hawes down low. This is a big game for the franchise, debuting for the first time under the ownership of Steve Ballmer. The Clippers will be motivated to open this new era with a bang. A lost OKC offense and a bigger, motivated Clippers team is why I’m playing on the L.A. Clippers as my 10* GOM. |
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10-29-14 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Phoenix Suns -10.5 | Top | 99-119 | Win | 100 | 22 h 13 m | Show |
I am playing on PHOENIX. The Suns enter this season as perhaps the hungriest team in the NBA after missing the playoffs by one game last year and the Lakers have the misfortune of facing them first. Phoenix catches the Lakers on the second of back-to-back nights after L.A. fell at home to Houston last night in its season opener. That’s a big advantage for the Suns against a banged up Lakers lineup that just lost first-round draft pick Julius Randle last night to a broken leg. New Lakers coach Byron Scott has also said throughout this offseason he’ll be limiting Kobe Bryant’s minutes in the second of back-to-back games, another plus for the Suns tonight. I believe Phoenix will use one of the best and deepest backcourts in the league to outlast L.A. tonight and win their seventh straight at home against the Lakers. The Suns went 3-1 straight up and 2-2 against the number last year against L.A. – a reflection of how they played against the bottom half of the league. The Suns went 30-9 against the 14 teams with losing records last campaign and should be looking forward to opening the year against a team they’ve had a lot of recent success against. 10* Personal Favorite |
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06-15-14 | Miami Heat +6 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 87-104 | Loss | -107 | 58 h 48 m | Show |
I’m playing on MIAMI. I’ve successfully backed the Spurs a few times in this series now, supporting them in Game 1 and Game 3. This will be the first time that I’m taking Miami though. The Spurs have certainly looked impressive the past two games. They’re obviously a very good team, one which is playing very well right now. The Heat are still the champs though and I don’t believe they’re going to go down without a serious fight. Lets not forget that the Heat are still 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS the last 10 times that they were trailing in a playoff series. While neither game at Miami was close, the two here at San Antonio were. The most recent game (Game 2) here was decided by only two points. The first game here saw San Antonio win by 15. However, that game was also close until the final minutes. I won’t be surprised if this one also comes down to the wire. That said, we’re getting more points with the Heat than we were for any game in these playoffs and I’m grabbing all the points I can get. 10* main event |
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06-10-14 | San Antonio Spurs +4.5 v. Miami Heat | Top | 111-92 | Win | 100 | 36 h 38 m | Show |
I’m playing on SAN ANTONIO. These teams split the first two games at San Antonio. While the Spurs did pull away at the end of the first, both games were close. I won’t be surprised to see an important Game 3 also come down to the wire. That said, I believe that getting this many points with the visitors is providing us with plenty of value. The Heat are well known for their ability to bounce back from a playoff loss and they added to that reputation on Sunday. The Spurs are pretty good at doing so themselves though and they tend to thrive when a series is tied. They’re 4-1 SU their last five off a loss, most recently beating the Thunder by 28. A very well-coached team which almost never panics, the Spurs are also an outstanding 27-11 SU (25-12-1 ATS) the last 38 times that they played when a series was tied. During that stretch, they’re 32-15 ATS (39-8 SU!) off an upset loss. Last year, just like this year, the Spurs won Game 1 and the Heat won Game 2. The Spurs would go on to win Game 3 by 36 points, the most one-sided game of the series. While a similar blowout would be surprising, another Spurs’ victory would not. 10* main event |
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06-05-14 | Miami Heat v. San Antonio Spurs -3.5 | Top | 95-110 | Win | 100 | 97 h 2 m | Show |
I’m playing on SAN ANTONIO. Obviously, both teams really want to start the series with a victory. Playing at home, I believe its more important for the Spurs to do so though. I expect them to have a little more sense of urgency. San Antonio has been all business in Game 1 the last couple of rounds. The Spurs won the opening game of the last series by 17 points. The previous round, they won the opening game by 24. Having lost the first game against Indiana - and still easily winning the series - and having lost the first game against the Spurs in last years Finals, the Heat may have the sense that they could do so again. While the Heat are 0-3-1 ATS (0-4 SU) as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range, the Spurs are 8-3 ATS (9-2 SU) as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. That includes a 111-87 destruction of the Heat when the teams met here in March. I look for Popovich to have them ready and I expect them to take care of business once again. 10* roast |
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05-29-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. San Antonio Spurs -4 | Top | 89-117 | Win | 100 | 30 h 27 m | Show |
I’m playing on San Antonio. Nobody has forgotten the 2012 Western Conference Finals. The Spurs won the first two games against the Thunder in that series only to go on to lose the next four. While some are expecting history to repeat itself, I’m not among them. These are not the 2012 Spurs. This is a team which does not panic. While this is a Game 5 instead of a Game 7, its obviously a critical game, one the Spurs can ill afford to lose. Here’s a small excerpt from a writeup I used the last time that the Spurs were in a “must win” situation, Game 7 against the Mavs: "...Popovich, Duncan and co. have all been here before. They’ve got nothing to prove. There’s no sense of panic. Duncan had this to say about having to play a Game 7. ‘’It doesn’t matter how many games it takes. We’re not worried or disappointed...’' (The Spurs would go on to win in blowout fashion.) I believe that sense of calmness, which comes from their experience, their coach and the type of players (Duncan) they have, will serve them well here. They know what they need to do and I look for them to do it. Obviously, home court has been huge in the series. The home team has won big in all four games. The Spurs have been money over the years, Game 3 notwithstanding, when off a double-digit loss. They’re 8-6 ATS 12-2 SU the last 14 times that they were off a loss of 10 or more points, going 21-14 ATS (29-6 SU) their last 35. Going back over the years, we find them at a lucrative 124-86-10 ATS their last 220 in that situation. I expect home court to again prove to be the difference, the Spurs improving to 8-3 ATS the last 11 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. 10* Roast |
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05-28-14 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers +3 | Top | 90-93 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
I’m playing on INDIANA. The Pacers were already heavy underdogs coming into the series and now nobody is giving them any chance at all. I don’t believe they’re going to go down without a fight though. The pressure is now completely off the Pacers. I believe they’ll be able to be loose, while also playing with a sense of pride at the same time. The Pacers are still 9-2 SU (8-3 ATS) their last 11 when trailing in a playoff series. During that time, they’re 39-11 at home (Miami 26-21 on road) and 15-6 off a double-digit loss. Obviously, the Heat would really like to close out the series tonight. However, with the Spurs/Thunder now still a long way from being over, there may not be quite the same sense of urgency, as there would be if the Spurs had swept, as some thought might be the case after the first two games in that series. The four point Game 2 loss notwithstanding, the Pacers have had plenty of recent success against the Heat here. I believe they’ll come in expecting to win. George Hill had this to say: ''I think that is when we are at our best, when our back is against the wall. We are going to be home in front of our fans and I'm sure they're going to be going crazy.’’ I agree. 10* main event |
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05-25-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder -2 | Top | 97-106 | Win | 100 | 82 h 12 m | Show |
I’m on OKLAHOMA CITY. I respect the Spurs and have backed them a few times of late, most recently in Game 1 of this series. However, I believe this is a strong spot for the Thunder. As you’re probably aware, the Spurs are up 2-0. Neither game at San Antonio was close. This game is at Oklahoma City though. The Thunder have won back-to-back games here and are 15-4 their last 19 here. They’ve also owned the Spurs here. In fact, they’re a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS the last seven meetings against San Antonio here. Speaking of 7-0, the Thunder are also 7-0 SU (5-2 ATS) the last seven times that they’d played their previous three or more games on the road, 18-4 SU their last 22 in that situation. There’s some talk that Ibaka could come back, as he’s been healing faster than expected. Obviously a healthy Ibaka would help this team a lot. I’m not going to rely on him returning though. Even with the loss in Game 2, the Thunder are still 3-1 SU and 2-1-1 ATS when trailing in a playoff series. Obviously, they need a win here. With Durant and Westbrook rising to the occasion, I expect them to get it, covering the small number along the way. 10* Conf. Finals GOY |
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05-18-14 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers +3 | Top | 96-107 | Win | 100 | 44 h 49 m | Show |
I’m playing on INDIANA. Homecourt didn’t mean much in the Pacers’ last series. However, I expect it to prove significant here. The Heat are still only 25-20 on the road. The Pacers are still 38-10 at home. The Heat allow 97.4 points on the road. The Pacers allow only 88.9 here at home. All four regular season meetings were won by the home team. The Pacers won the two games here by scores of 90-84 and 84-83. In both cases, Indiana was favored. This time, we’re actually getting a couple of points. Nearly everyone expects the Heat to win. I believe the Pacers match up well against them though. This is the series they’ve been waiting for all season and I expect it to bring out their best. With their last game having come Thursday, the Pacers have had an optimal amount of rest, at least for them; not too much, not too little. They’re 15-2 SU (11-6 ATS) when playing with two day’s rest. The Pacers know they can’t afford to lose another Game 1. Don’t be shocked when they score the upset. 10* main event |
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05-15-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder +5 v. Los Angeles Clippers | Top | 104-98 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
I’m playing on OKC. This series has been getting closer and closer and the two previous games here at LA . The first game (at OKC) was decided by 17 points, the second by 11. When the series shifted to LA for Game 3, the game was decided by only six points. Neither team ever led by double-digits. Game 4 was even closer, as it was decided by only two points. Last game? The closest yet, a 1-point win for OKC. While we can’t keep getting closer (as you can’t get closer than Game 5) another close one tonight won’t surprise. (Overall, the total points in the series is 540-539.) That said, I believe the number of the visiting Thunder is generous. Homecourt has meant little in the series, as the road team has covered four of five games. The Thunder covered both games here at LA, winning one by six and losing the other by two. Keep in mind that there are still distractions from the Sterling scandal still in LA. Additionally, the Clippers could easily be thinking about “what might have been,” after blowing Game 5 in heart-breaking (and controversial) fashion. Remember last round? Just like this series, the Thunder also saw their Game 5 (at OKC) decided by a single point, a 99-100 thriller vs. the Grizzlies. Remember what happened in Game 6? The Thunder went on the road and crushed the Grizzlies by 20 points. The Thunder know the Spurs are waiting and they’d really rather not have to drag this to a Game 7. They’re 5-1 ATS their last six as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range and I expect AT LEAST another cover tonight. 10* main event |
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05-14-14 | PORTLAND GM5 v. SAN ANTONIO GM5 -7.5 | Top | 82-104 | Win | 100 | 32 h 20 m | Show |
I’m playing on SAN ANTONIO. After dominating the first three games of the series, the Spurs stumbled in Game 4. Give the Blazers credit for showing some pride and avoiding the sweep. However, even they know that their chances of coming back to win the series are remote, at best. With the series shifting back to San Antonio, I expect the savvy Spurs to leave no room for doubt. The Spurs jumped all over the Blazers in the two games here. They were up 65-39 and 70-51 at halftime. They’re going to come out with a lot of intensity again and I feel it will be difficult for the Blazers to avoid falling behind. If/When they do fall behind, reality figures to set in - their season is done. The Spurs are 11-7 ATS (16-2 SU!) off an “upset” loss. Going back further finds them at a profitable 31-15 ATS (38-8 SU!) in that situation the past few seasons. In fact, that’s been a spot they’ve fared well in throughout the majority of the Duncan/Popovich era. The Blazers have already had a successful season and can hold their heads high. The Spurs are on a mission though and I expect them to advance with a double-digit win. 10* 2nd Rd. GOY |
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05-13-14 | WASHINGTON GM5 v. INDIANA GM5 -5 | Top | 102-79 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
I’m playing on INDIANA. With three straight victories, the Pacers have taken this series over. The team that dominated much of the regular season has seemingly returned. That said, with a chance to close the deal and a line this low, I feel they’re providing us with excellent value. The Pacers are 19-11 ATS (22-8 SU) the last 30 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. When they finally got a chance to put the Hawks away, they did so decisively. I expect them to do so again here. 10* personal favorite |
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05-06-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. San Antonio Spurs -6.5 | Top | 92-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
I’m playing on SAN ANTONIO. We saw the road teams have success last night. However, I expect the home team to have the advantage here. Give the Blazers credit for having a great series against Houston. That was another relatively inexperienced playoff team though. Tonight, they’ll be up against a veteran team that is loaded with playoff experience and savvy, not to mention talent. The Blazers are excellent at home but only respectable on the road. The Spurs, on the other hand, are dominant (35-10) at home. They outscore teams by an average of 106-97.6 here overall. While the Blazers have been sitting around for a few days, the Spurs come in with plenty of momentum, as Sunday's Game 7 was their biggest win of the opening series. Off that 119-96 beatdown, note that the Spurs are 71-42-3 ATS (81-35 SU) the past few seasons, after scoring 105 or more points in their previous game. The Spurs beat the Blazers by 13 here the last time the teams met. They were laying -8.5 points for that one. We’re getting a better line to work with and I expect another big win. 10* annihilator |
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05-05-14 | Washington Wizards v. Indiana Pacers -4 | Top | 102-96 | Loss | -103 | 18 h 6 m | Show |
I’m playing on INDIANA. Its true that the Wizards had an easier time in the first round than the Pacers did. That has allowed them some extra preparation time, as they’ve had more time in between games than Indiana. I believe the Pacers have regained momentum though and don’t feel the small window in between games will hurt them. In fact, I feel it will work to their advantage. Note that the Wizards have some similarities with the Hawks, in terms of playing style. So, the Pacers should be somewhat ready for them. Meanwhile, when they’d been playing so well, the Wizards probably didn’t need such an extended break between games. Note that Washington is only 2-4 ATS (1-5 SU) the last six times it played with three or more day’s rest in between games. Looking at some stats and we find that the Pacers are 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU) the last six times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 180 to 184.5 range. They’re also 19-9 ATS (21-7 SU) the last few seasons, as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. The Pacers have beaten the Wizards 12 straight times here, most recently a 93-66 destruction in January. Before that, it was a 93-73 blowout in November. They’ve been laying a minimum of -6.5 points for all eight meetings against the Wizards here since 2010, including -9.5 and -10 for this season’s two meetings. We’re getting a much smaller number to work with here and I believe that’s providing excellent value. 10* personal favorite |
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05-04-14 | Dallas Mavericks v. San Antonio Spurs -6 | Top | 96-119 | Win | 100 | 20 h 1 m | Show |
I’m playing on SAN ANTONIO. Admittedly, the Spurs haven’t been very good to me this series. That won’t prevent me from backing them here though. We saw the importance of homecourt for the three Game 7’s yesterday. All three home teams won. Two of them covered. The victories came by an average of nearly 10 points a game. One could certainly make a case for the Mavericks, as they’ve played the Spurs tough every game. At the end of the day, I believe the Spurs’ depth and experience will prove to be too much for them. Not only are the Spurs at home, they’re a superior team overall. Popovich, Duncan and co. have all been here before. They’ve got nothing to prove. There’s no sense of panic. Duncan had this to say about having to play a Game 7. ‘’It doesn’t matter how many games it takes. We’re not worried or disappointed.'' The Spurs, who were favored in Game 6, are an outstanding 30-15 ATS (37-8 SU!) the last 45 times that they were off an upset loss. I don’t believe run is over yet. I look for them to come through with their best game of the series, en route to a big win and cover. 10* main event |
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05-04-14 | Brooklyn Nets v. Toronto Raptors -2.5 | Top | 104-103 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
I’m playing on TORONTO. Many are likely going to back Brooklyn here. True, the Nets have a lot of recognizable faces and plenty of playoff experience. However, I really like the character of this well-coached Raptor team and I believe that playing an early Sunday game (something they do regularly) here at Toronto gives them the advantage. We saw the importance of homecourt for the three Game 7’s yesterday. All three home teams won. Two of them covered. The victories came by an average of nearly 10 points a game, each by a minimum of five. Brooklyn’s Andray Blatche was doing some trash-talking and guaranteed the Nets would win this game. That didn’t sit well with the Raptors. Toronto guard Greivis Vasquez had this to say: ''Who does he think he is? He's not KG or Paul Pierce or Jason Kidd. We're not going to listen to his nonsense.’' I agree with DeRozan when he said that the Nets had more pressure on them. He had this to say: ''Yeah, man. We ain't got not 100 million payroll or whatever they got. That's all on them. At the end of the day, they have more to lose than us.'' The Nets are just 2-5 ATS (1-6 SU) as road underdogs of three or fewer points. They’re also 2-3 ATS (1-4 SU) when playing on the road with an O/U line in the 185 to 189.5 range. On the other hand, the Raptors are 4-1 ATS (5-0 SU) as home favorites of three or less. Don’t be surprised when they improve on those stats this afternoon. 10* breakfast club |
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05-03-14 | GOLDEN STATE GM7 v. LA CLIPPERS GM7 -7 | Top | 121-126 | Loss | -115 | 34 h 34 m | Show |
I’m playing on LA. This series has certainly had a little bit of everything. While the last game came down to the wire, there have also been a few lopsided victories. The more focused team and/or the one which has overcome distractions, has generally had the advantage. With this being a Game 7, once the game starts, I expect both teams to effectively block out the distractions and this one to be decided on the floor. Playing at home, I like the Clippers’ chances. There’s a fair amount of talk about LA’s Chris Paul being injured. He’s a warrior though and I’m not too worried about that. Paul had this to say: ''I'll be there. Seven-thirty, that ball's throwed up, I'll be there. Can't wait.’” I’m not so confident that Golden State’s Jermaine O’neal will be able to bounce back and be ready the way Paul is for the Clippers. Even if he plays, he’s likely to be at less than 100%. For a Warriors’ team already without Bogut, that figures to spell trouble. While they failed to cover in all three games at Oakland, the Clippers won each of the last two here at LA by double-digits. Those wins came by 10 and 40 points. With Paul refusing to let his team lose, I look for the Clippers to overcome the adversity with another convincing win and cover. 10* personal favorite |
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05-03-14 | MEMPHIS GM7 v. OKLAHOMA CITY GM7 -7.5 | Top | 109-120 | Win | 100 | 31 h 54 m | Show |
I’m playing on OKC. The Thunder have regained the momentum and are back at home. They fought hard all season to be able to play this game here and I expect them to rise to the occasion with their best effort. As if beating the Thunder in a Game 7 at OKC wasn’t already going to be difficult enough, the Grizzlies will be without Zach Randolph, who has been suspended. While that caused the line to climb slightly, I think his loss is greater than was reflected by the relatively small move. Throw in the fact that Conley is way less than 100% and things aren't going to easy for the Grizzlies, who are rarely as good on the road as they are at home. Conley commented: "Me being banged up, you're going to have to ask more out of different guys, see a lot of guys step up ...'' The Thunder are the stronger team. They won by 20 last time out, their second double-digit win in the series. Playing at home, I look for them to dictate the tempo en route to another convincing win and cover. 10* |
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05-02-14 | San Antonio Spurs -3 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 111-113 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
I’m playing on SAN ANTONIO. I haven’t had much success with the Spurs in this series. That won’t prevent me from backing them here though. The Mavs got big games from Nowitzki and Carter last time out and still lost by six. A closer look shows that all three San Antonio victories have come by a minimum of four points. Tonight, with a lower line, that’ll be enough for a cover. Speaking of the lower line, note that the Mavs are only 2-6 SU/ATS the last eight times that they were listed as home underdogs of three or fewer points. The Spurs, who are 70-41-3 ATS (80-34 SU) the past couple of seasons after scoring 105 or more in their previous game, have got the momentum back in their corner. Needless to day, they don’t want to see a Game 7. I believe they’ll smell the blood in the water and close things out, covering the small number along the way. 10* Main Event |
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04-30-14 | Dallas Mavericks v. San Antonio Spurs -6 | Top | 103-109 | Push | 0 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
I’m playing on SAN ANTONIO. While they didn’t make it easy on themselves, the Spurs dug deep and came away with a badly needed victory last time out. Now, despite the venue shifting back to San Antonio, they’re only laying a couple more points than they were at Dallas. I believe that’s providing excellent value. While the Spurs dominated all season, the Mavs squeaked into the playoffs. This was almost like a rebuilding year for Dallas, while San Antonio had championship aspirations from the start. Don’t forget that before this series, the Spurs had beaten the Mavs 10 straight times. They’re still 16-5 SU and 13-8 ATS (or 13-7-1 ATS) the last 21 in the series. It should be noted that Blair is suspended for Dallas, for a kick in the last game. When he left the last game, he was 5 for 5 on shooting with 12 points and 11 rebounds (+ 2 steals) in 16 minutes. I believe that his absence will prove to be a big blow. The Spurs have been here before. They're 23-11-1 ATS (24-11 SU) the last 35 times that they’ve been tied in a playoff series. I believe the Spurs now have the momentum back on their side. I expect them to put it all together with their best game of the series, leading to a convincing win and cover. 10* personal favorite |
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04-28-14 | San Antonio Spurs -4 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 93-89 | Push | 0 | 18 h 7 m | Show |
I’m playing on SAN ANTONIO. Give the Mavericks credit. They’re up 2-1 and playing Game 4 here at home. However, lets not forget that the Spurs were the best team in the league during the regular season. Night after night, city after city, they brought their A-Game. While its not an elimination game, its still one the Spurs know they desperately need. I expect them to be at their best. Keep in mind that the Spurs 30-11 road record was better than the Mavs’ 23-18 mark here at Dallas. While the Spurs dominated all season, the Mavs squeaked into the playoffs. This was almost like a rebuilding year for Dallas, while San Antonio had championship aspirations from the start. Don’t forget that before this series, the Spurs had beaten the Mavs 10 straight times. They’re still 15-5 SU and 13-7 ATS the last 20 in the series. Despite failing to get it done last time out, the Spurs are still a dominating 30-14 ATS (36-8 SU) the last 44 times that they were off an “upset” loss, 10-6 ATS this season. On the other hand, the Mavs are just 5-7 ATS off a SU victory as an underdog. The Spurs are 15-9 ATS the past couple of seasons when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 200 to 204.5 range. That includes a 6-3 ATS mark this season. Conversely, the Mavs are 2-7 ATS when playing a home game with a total in the same range, 8-15 ATS the past couple of seasons. Losing in the manner the Spurs lost Game 3 can be tough on a team. However, as Ginobili noted of the extremely well-coached Spurs: ''On a tough blow like this one, having been there, having suffered way worse than this, can help … We’ve got to go for it and play better.” I’m not counting out the top seeds yet. I expect the Spurs to play their best game of the series and for that to lead to a win and cover. 10* West Conf Opening Rnd. GOY |
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04-28-14 | Atlanta Hawks v. Indiana Pacers -6.5 | Top | 107-97 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 31 m | Show |
I’m playing on INDIANA. The Pacers dug deep last game and came through with a critical victory. Back home, where they’re typically much stronger, I expect them to follow it up with another very important win. I played on the Pacers in Game 2, which was the most recent game here. Having lost the opener, they were fully focused on the task at hand. They won by 16. Including that one-sided win, the Pacers have now taken seven of the last nine meetings with the Hawks, here at Indiana. The last five of those victories (and six of the seven overall) all came by double-digits. Indiana wins came by 16, 10, 23, 15 and 17 points. I believe the Pacers are the superior team. They were dominant for most of the season, before going through a lull towards the end. I believe they’ve reawakened and the team that earned the #1 seed is ready to return. They’re still 36-7 here at Indiana, outscoring teams by an average of more than 10 points per game. Paul George had this to say: "We've got to put this game and this series away.” I look for George and co. to do so in convincing fashion. 10* personal favorite |
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04-23-14 | Dallas Mavericks v. San Antonio Spurs -8 | Top | 113-92 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
I’m playing on SAN ANTONIO. The Spurs took the Mavs’ best punch in Game 1. While they didn’t cover, they emerged victorious. I expect that close call to serve as a wake up call and feel that the Mavs aren’t likely to get another shot at an upset.
The common logic here seems to be that if the Mavs were so close, even without a big game from Dirk. That now if Dirk plays better, they’ll win easily. That’s not necessarily the case though. Everything else is never equal - so one can’t look at it that way.
The Spurs are 29-4 SU and 22-11 ATS the last 33 times that they played with two day’s rest in between games. They’ve dominated in the first round the past couple of seasons and I look for them to prove they’re the more complete team tonight. 10* personal favorite
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04-20-14 | Dallas Mavericks v. San Antonio Spurs -9 | Top | 85-90 | Loss | -114 | 26 h 24 m | Show |
10* Spurs. Analysis before 7am PST Sunday. |
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04-14-14 | Orlando Magic v. Chicago Bulls -12 | Top | 95-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
I’m playing on CHICAGO. Both teams lost yesterday. For Orlando, it was just another loss, business as usual. However, for the Bulls, it was a big loss, a game they would have liked to have won. I expect this well-coached team to bounce back with its best effort.
While the Bulls already know they’ll have home court advantage for the first round, they’re still trying to finish with the #3 seed, instead of the #4, which is the reason yesterday’s loss was a tough one. Noah had this to say about yesterday’s game and the importance of getting ready for today: "We let a big game slip. It was probably the biggest game of the season. Disappointing the way our mentality wasn't good, but overall we just won't have time, just got to let this one go, get ready tomorrow.” The Bulls can still get the #3 seed but they need to win both their games (after this, they play at Charlotte on Wednesday) and hope that Toronto loses one of its games. (The Bulls could also lose one and hope that Toronto loses both its last two but given the Raptors are hosting Milwaukee tonight, that scenario isn’t that likely.) While the Bulls are 26-14 at home, the Magic are 4-36 on the road. No other team has a worse road record. The Bulls, who are 9-6-1 ATS when playing the second of back-to-back games, are in one of this season's better roles here. They’re 3-1 ATS as home favorites in the -9.5 to -12 range. (The Magic are 2-3 ATS as road underdogs in the +9.5 to +12 range.) The last time that the Bulls played the second of b2b games, they won by 18 points, at Washington. Their previous two times in that situation both also resulted in double-digit wins. Not only do the Bulls need to win to stay alive for the #3 seed, this is also their regular season home finale. Additionally, the Magic beat them here earlier in the season. In other words, there should be no shortage of motivation. I’m expecting a blowout. 10* personal favorite |
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04-13-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Indiana Pacers -2 | Top | 97-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
I’m playing on INDIANA. Some might scratch their heads a little to see the Pacers favored here. After all, they’ve really struggled in recent weeks while the Thunder have continued to play well. I believe Indiana is favored for good reason though.
For starters, lets not forget that the Pacers are still 34-6 at home. That’s a much better record than the Thunder have on the road. (They’re 25-14 away from OKC.) While the Thunder allow more than 100 points (101.2) per game on the road, the Pacers allow just 87.8 here at Indiana. Perhaps more importantly, at least in this case, the Pacers “need” this game more than the Thunder. OKC already has the #2 seed locked up. It can’t get better, or worse. I’m not counting on it - but its possible that the Thunder could limit the minutes of one/some of their stars/starters. Meanwhile, the Pacers are still in the hunt for the top seed in the East - although they’ll still need a little help from the Heat. The fact that Miami lost by double-digits at Atlanta last night figures to give them some hope. While gaining the #1 seed would surely be a big deal for the Pacers, just gaining some confidence from being able to beat a championship contender - one they would love to see in the Finals - would be huge. Many of their recent struggles would be forgotten if they could go out and deliver a victory this afternoon. I expect them to be extremely motivated to do just that. While I’ve already mentioned that the Thunder have played better than the Pacers down the stretch, it should be noted that OKC is actually only 7-10 ATS its last 17 against teams with a winning record. The Pacers, who got blown out at OKC earlier, are 12-9 ATS (16-5 SU) when attempting to avenge an earlier loss. I expect them to bring their “A Game” here, improving on those stats in convincing fashion. 10* Main Event |
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04-11-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Utah Jazz +8 | Top | 111-99 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 46 m | Show |
I’m playing on UTAH. The Blazers are hot. The Jazz are not. The Blazers are getting ready for the playoffs and fighting for a better seed. The Jazz are getting ready to go golfing. Needless to say, most will likely be backing Portland. As is often the case, I’ll be on the opposite side.
Its true that the Blazers have more to play for, on paper. Its also true that they’ve been a better team all year. That’s all been factored into the line though. I believe the number is generously high and I look for the Jazz to provide a much tougher test than most will be expecting. The Jazz lost their last game (against Dallas) by double-digits. I believe there were some positives though. The Mavs hit 16 of their first 17 shots, which is awfully tough to overcome. Yet, the Jazz didn’t hang their heads. They kept fighting the whole way. In fact, while the damage was already done, they outscored Dallas after the first period. (They won two of the final three quarters while losing the other by a single point.) While the Blazers are hot, I don’t expect them to hit 16 of their first 17 shots - and I look for Utah to have learned a lesson from the last loss and to come out with more intensity from the opening tip. Utah’s Trey Burke noted: We have to be patient ... continue to fight out there, continue to play hard … It's tough to beat a team when they're shooting 94 percent in the first quarter. We can't allow that to happen." While they’ve still been solid on the road, the Blazers aren’t as dominating away from Portland. They outscore teams by an average of 1.4 points on the road. Meanwhile, the Jazz get outscored by an average of 3.2 points per game at home. This is the Blazers’ final road game and they’re ned two games come against a pair of playoff teams, the Warriors and the Clippers. I believe it will be easy for them to take the “lowly Jazz” for granted. Meanwhile, this is Utah’s final game against a team which will be going to the playoffs. For the Jazz, that means that this is their final “meaningful game” (chance to play a small role in shaping the playoff picture) and I expect that to provide them with some motivation. (Their next three games come at Denver, vs the Lakers and at Minnesota.) Added motivation for the Jazz stems from the fact that the Blazers have beaten them in all three meetings this season. They’ll be looking to avoid the series sweep, something which has never happened against Portland. The Blazers have only won one of their last five games by more than seven points, that 12-point win coming against the banged-up Lakers. Their last two games came against the Pelicans and Kings and were decided by just five combined points. The Jazz are a profitable 9-5 ATS (7-7 SU) after scoring 85 or fewer points in their previous game. They’ve been in that situation twice since the start of March and they responded by winning each of their next games outright. I expect AT LEAST another cover tonight. 10* N.W. Div GOY. |
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04-09-14 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Washington Wizards -5 | Top | 94-88 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
I’m playing on WASHINGTON. This is a big game for both teams, in terms of postseason seeding. Both teams have already punched their playoff tickets. However, they’re batting each other for the sixth spot. Playing at home, I expect the Wizards to have the edge.
Sixth place figures to be a more attractive proposition than seventh. That’s because it would mean facing either Toronto or Chicago in the first round. The alternative is Indiana or Miami, for the team which finishes in seventh. Even with the Pacers’ recent struggles, they’ve still been pretty hard to beat at home and a date with the Bulls or Raptors is likely more appealing - needless to say, they won’t want to have to face Miami. While the Bobcats are a respectable 23-16 at home, they’re only 16-22 on the road. The Bobcats may have taken two of three meetings against the Wizards so far but they’re still only 4-10 SU and 6-8 ATS against divisional opponents. Meanwhile, the Wizards are 8-5 SU and 7-5-1 ATS in their divisional games. While the Bobcats are 9-13 SU off an upset win, the Wizards are 8-5 SU off an upset loss. Throw in the fact that the Wizards are 24-17 ATS when attempting to avenge an earlier loss and I say its time for some payback. 10* personal fav |
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04-06-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Phoenix Suns +3 | Top | 115-122 | Win | 100 | 21 h 39 m | Show |
I’m playing on PHOENIX. While I really respect the Thunder, I believe they’re over-valued here.
The Thunder are certainly a solid road team. However, the Suns have arguably been even better here at Phoenix. While the Thunder have 23 wins away from OKC, the Suns have 25 wins here at Phoenix. The Thunder outscore teams by a 104.8 to 100.8 margin on the road. However, the Suns have outscored teams by a wider 108.2 to 102.6 margin here at Phoenix. Not only have the Suns been arguably better at home than the Thunder have on the road, they also need this game more. OKC is fairly comfortably in second in the conference while the Suns are in a dogfight with Memphis and Dallas for the final spot. With four of their final five on the road, this game becomes even more critical for the Suns. While they lost both at OKC, they upset the Thunder in this season’s lone meeting here. Including last month's result here, the Thunder are 2-4 ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. Meanwhile, the Suns are a lucrative 27-13 ATS when listed as underdogs. I expect them to rise to the occasion with AT LEAST another cover here. 10* best bet |
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04-06-14 | Atlanta Hawks v. Indiana Pacers -8 | Top | 107-88 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 36 m | Show |
I’m playing on INDIANA. While the Pacers have had real trouble on the road recently, they’re still very tough to beat here at home. I expect their best effort today.
The Pacers are an outstanding 24-1 at home against Eastern Conference opponents, 34-5 here overall. That includes a 108-98 win against the Hawks here on 2/18. They were favored by 10 points in that one - but we’re getting a better line to work with here. Including that victory, the Pacers have beaten the Hawks six straight times here. They were 4-1-1 ATS in those games, five of the wins coming by double-digits. While they could badly use a win, the Hawks are in one of their worst roles. They’re an ugly 1-6 ATS (0-7 SU) as a road underdog in the 6.5 to 9 range. Overall, they’re an ugly 2-13 their last 15 on the road, going a money-burning 3-11-1 ATS. The Pacers, who play three of their final four on the road, have only one more regular season home game after this - and that comes against OKC. That makes taking care of business here very important - and I expect them to do just that. 10* personal favorite |
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04-04-14 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Boston Celtics -9.5 | Top | 111-102 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
I’m playing on BOSTON. The road team has won both meetings so far this season. I expect a big win for the home team this evening though.
On an extended losing streak and with four of their next five on the road - one of those at Philadelphia against these same 76’ers - the Celtics know that this is their best opportunity to reward the home faithful with one last big win. Boston guard Jerryd Bayless had this to say: "I think Friday is another opportunity, and we just need to take advantage of it. We have a winnable game on Friday and hopefully we're able to pull it out .. " While the 76’ers finally stopped the bleeding a few games back, they’re still a terrible team. They lost by 30 (vs. Charlotte) last time out and they get outscored by an average of 12 points per game away from Philadelphia. Note that the 76’ers are an ugly 15-31 ATS after allowing 105 or more points in their previous game. Bottom line: I expect the Celtics to be the more motivated team and I look for them to pull away for a double-digit victory. 10* personal favorite |
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04-04-14 | Denver Nuggets v. Memphis Grizzlies -9 | Top | 92-100 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 35 m | Show |
I’m playing on MEMPHIS. After a tough road trip, the Grizzlies figure to be happy to be home. Off an ugly loss at Minnesota, I expect them to bounce back with a big win.
The Grizzlies haven’t had many home games lately. In fact, they’ve only played six games at Memphis since the start of March. A closer look at those results shows that they were a perfect 6-0 in those games and that EVERY one of the wins came by double-digits. Going back a little further finds that the Grizzlies are a perfect 10-0 here since mid-February, a dominating 16-2 here since 1/10. On the other hand, the Nuggets are only 13-24 on the road this season. They’ve lost their last four on the road and two of their last three away games resulted in double-digit losses. The Grizzlies know they need all the wins that they can get right now. They also know they’ve got some tough games on deck, making it all the more important to take advantage of tonight’s opportunity. They beat the Nuggets by 21 points (120-99) in this season’s lone meeting here and I expect another double-digit win this evening. 10* Main Event |
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04-03-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 | Top | 94-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
I’m playing on OKC. Admittedly, its tough to beat the Spurs. Indeed, no team has done so for many weeks. The Thunder are one of the few clubs capable of doing so though. In fact, the Thunder have beaten the Spurs four straight times overall and six straight times, here at OKC. With the schedule in their favor, I look for the Thunder to continue that recent dominance, snapping the Spurs’ win streak at 19.
While the Thunder had the last few days off, the Spurs are off a game vs. the Warriors last night. True, they’re more than capable of winning in a b2b spot. Still, this will also be their third game in four days and their fifth in the last seven. Going back a little further finds that this will be the Spurs’ ninth game in 14 days. By comparison, this will be OKC’s sixth game, during the same stretch. That’s a pretty difficult scheduling spot for the Spurs, even if their wins have been coming easily. While Popovich doesn’t always reveal his plans until close to game-time, given his tendencies and the tough schedule, it certainly wouldn’t surprise to see one or more players given the night off. It would be easy to assume that the Spurs are great in the “revenge” role. After all, they’re so well-coached and they’re very good in nearly every role. That hasn’t been the case this season though. They’re 7-12 ATS when attempting to avenge a loss, 6-3 ATS when attempting to avenge a home loss. Playing at home and playing with the fresher legs, I expect the Thunder, who are still trying to catch the Spurs in the standings to take care of business. 10* main event |
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03-31-14 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Detroit Pistons -5.5 | Top | 111-116 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 8 m | Show |
I’m playing on DETROIT. I successfully played on the Bucks on 3/27, in their win against the Lakers. At the time, I suggested that they would be highly motivated to take advantage of the most winnable game remaining on their schedule. This time, I believe the shoe is on the other foot. A look at the Pistons’ remaining schedule shows that this is the most winnable game remaining on Detroit’s schedule, at least on paper. This time, I expect it to be the Pistons who will be highly motivated to make the most of the opportunity to win one for the home fans.
While the Pistons are admittedly pretty bad, the Bucks are worse. Their 14-59 record, which is the worst in the league, includes an ugly 5-31 mark on the road. They’re 1-19 SU on the road in 2014, 0-9 their last nine. While they split this season’s meetings at Milwaukee, the Pistons are 15-5 the last 20 times that they hosted the Bucks. That includes a 113-94 blowout win here back in November. In addition to wanting to snap their skid and win one for the home fans, I believe the Pistons will be hungry to bounce back from Saturday’s debacle, at Philadelphia. Its bad enough that they were the team that the 76’ers snapped their losing streak against, but the 76’ers crushed them. That was embarrassing and I look for them to respond with their very best effort, en route to a convincing win and cover. 10* |
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03-27-14 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Milwaukee Bucks -1 | Top | 105-108 | Win | 100 | 25 h 23 m | Show |
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