I'm playing on BOSTON U. These teams have both played Colgate twice and they've both played Holy Cross twice. They both split against Holy Cross. Army also split against Colgate. Boston, meanwhile, was swept by Colgate. Those results have helped to provide us with outstanding value with the Terriers. The logic or theory of many bettors will be, if the Black Knights can split against Colgate, a team which swept the Terriers, then they should have the edge in this one. While Army does deserve credit for its win against Colgate, that theory doesn't hold water here. The Terriers brought back most of last year's team and last year's team beat the Knights by a score of 80-66, at Army, and by a score of 81-59, here at Case Gym. The Terriers are coming in extremely hungry. They're 11-5 the last 16 times that they played a game with an O/U line in the 130s and that includes a perfect 4-0 record when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 135 to 139.5 range. Expect Boston to bring its very best effort in this one, en route to a badly needed victory. 

I'm playing on NORTH TEXAS. The Mean Green were favored by 10 points for last year's lone meeting. That game, which was last January, saw North Texas win by exactly 10. The previous season's lone game was played at UTEP. Yet, North Texas was still favored by 5.5 points and still won by seven. This year's North Texas team returned four of its top six scorers and is arguably even better than the recent versions. Yet, we're getting the Mean Green at a much lower line than we were last season. I feel thats providing us with excellent value. To be fair, UTEP is probably better this year than it was. That said, I don't think the Miners, who will miss the size, depth and rebounding of senior forward Vila, are going to be ready for what's in store for them here. The Miners lost last time out and they're just 7-17-1 ATS their last 25, off a conference loss. During that span, they were also 7-15 ATS (6-16 SU) when playing a game with an O/U line in the 130s. North Texas, the top rated shooting team in the conference, is undefeated at home, outscoring visiting teams by a 98 to 62.7 average margin. Expect another win and cover. 

I'm playing on ARIZONA. The Wildcats already know that they won't face Oregon, as originally scheduled, on Saturday. That's because of Covid issues with Oregon. They will still get a chance to face Oregon State though and I expect them to make the most of it. The Beavers have been dealing with their own Covid issues and have been out of action since Jan. 4th. That won't help them here. Not against a superior opponent which almost always gives them trouble. Arizona has won eight of the last nine meetings. The most recent meeting saw the Cats crush the Beavers by 26 points. With the Beavers rusty from their layoff, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Cats jump all over them and never look back. Even if OSU does survive the initial onslaught, Arizona's superior talent will ultimately lead to another double-digit win. 

I'm playing on STEPHEN F. AUSTIN. Sometimes these smaller conferences can provide the biggest value. In this case, I believe the superior team is undervalued. The Lumberjacks are the class of this conference. Both their two losses came on the road, one of them at Baylor. At home, they're undefeated and outscoring teams by a 90-70 margin. Last year, the Jacks were laying nine points at Central Arkansas and 12.5 points for the game here. They won a close one on the road but won by 15 in the game here. Central Arkansas is 1-7 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 83.5 to 68.4. Seven of the Bears' losses this season have come by double-digits, including each of the last six. Its been more than a year since Stepeh F. Austin lost a game in this conference. The last time it happened was Jan. 8th, 2020. Since that time, the Jacks have reeled off 17 straight Southland wins. This year's Stephen Austin team, led by their seniors, quietly ranks fourth in the entire country, in terms of forcing opponents into turning the ball over on 28% of all their possessions. Expect another double-digit win. 

I'm playing on WISCONSIN. While I'm happy to grab the points, I like the Badgers to win this one outright. The Wolverines were favored by three in last year's game. Wisconsin won by seven. The Badgers last road game saw them win by nine, at Michigan State. This is a team which knows how to win, at any venue. The Badgers' lone road loss came by just two points. With an undefeated record, Michigan has obviously played well and is worthy of respect. That said, the Badgers have played the tougher schedule thus far and are more "battle-tested," as a result. Including last season's win here and this season's win at Michigan State, the Badgers are 12-8-2 ATS their last 22 as underdogs, 11-11 SU in those games. Expect them to give the Wolverines all they can handle with a great shot at another upset. 

I'm playing on Boise/Wyoming UNDER the total. The last four meetings between these teams had O/U lines of 134, 133.5, 130.5 and 136. All four games finished below the total with combined scores of 129, 119, 129 and 124. Tonight, however, thanks to these teams being involved in a number of 'overs' lately, we're working with a considerably higher O/U number. I believe that it'll prove to be too high. Wyoming managed a mere 61 points last time out while Boise allowed just 69. In their previous game, the Broncos allowed only 59. While the Cowboys did allow 81 last time out, the UNDER is 10-7 the past 2+ seasons, after they'd allowed 80 or more in their previous game. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on MARYLAND. While I respect Illinois, I believe that this will prove to be too many points. The Terps are coming in hungry. They got embarrassed last time out and they've now dropped three straight. Note that if we go back over the years, they're 12-2 ATS their last 14, after having dropped their previous three. Maryland has also had plenty of success against the Illini over the years. The Terps have won six of the past seven meetings and are 11-5 in 16 meetings since the late 1990s. All five Illinois victories came by 11 or fewer points. Maryland's three conference road games have resulted in two single digit losses (at Purdue and Indiana) and an outright win at Wisconsin. Expect them to give their hosts all that they can handle. 

I'm playing on Gonzaga/Portland UNDER the total. When these teams last met, the O/U line was 147.5. The previous meeting, the line was 148.5. We're working with a much higher number this evening. I feel that it'll prove to be too high. Since hitting conference play, Gonzaga has seen both its games stay below the total. The Bulldogs have still scored 85 and 86 points. However, they held their two opponents (BYU and San Francisco) to 62 and 69. Due to the high O/U lines, the games stayed below the total. The Bulldogs will surely put up a big number again tonight. However, Portland isn't as good offensively as the previous two conf. opponents. The Pilots have managed 41, 61, 68 and 64 points over their past four games. While their defense isn't great, no team has hit the 90 mark against them. They allow 72 ppg. Even if Gonzaga gets 100, which I don't think it will, Portland likely wouldn't be able to contribute enough to make up the difference. Even if one pencils in Gonzaga for 95, consider that none of the Bulldogs last four opponents have reached 70 points and that Portland hasn't reached the 70 mark in its past four. The last two meetings that I spoke of earlier? They both finished in the 150s. Look for the final combined score to stay beneath the generously high number, the UNDER improving to 20-12 in Portland's last 32 home games. 

I'm playing on DAYTON. While I respect Davidson, this line climbed higher overnight and its a lot of points to be laying against a determined Dayton tean. The Flyers, who have beaten Davidson three straight times, have lost just three times this season. All three losses came by two points or less. One of those setbacks came last time out. That's noteworthy as Dayton is 6-1 SU (5-1-1 ATS) its last seven, off a conf. loss. Speaking of close games, last year's meeting here was decided by a single point, a 74-73 win for the Flyers. Davidson was laying four points for that one, which is roughly what I feel the Wildcats should be laying here, if one was setting a true line, not based on trying to balance action. Getting an extra few points, above and beyond that, in what could well be another close one, is offering excellent value. Remember, Dayton has defeated the likes of Ole Miss and Miss. State. Off each of this season's previous two losses, the Flyers bounced back with a win. Look for them to give their hosts all they can handle. 

I'm playing on TENNESSEE STATE. There's a reason why the team with the inferior record is the favorite. Homecourt is only part of it. The Tigers are more talented, in my opinion. Additionally, they're currently playing better, arguably. They're also going to be desperate for a win, having dropped three straight. Of course, off four straight losses of their own, the Skyhawks are also going to really want a "W" here. However, a look at the four losses shows that they haven't even been competitive. All four losses were by double-digits. The average margin of defeat was 24 points. The Tigers' losses, on the other hand, were all close, each coming by single digits. Note that the Tigers are 6-3 ATS the past couple of seasons, after having dropped their previous three games. I expect them to improve on those stats this evening. 

I'm playing on Auburn/Mississippi OVER the total. I believe that this number will prove to be too low. Consider that recent meetings between these teams had O/U lines in the 140s and 150s but that we're working with a number in the 130s here. Auburn is off a tight (68-66) game against Texas A&M. However, in their previous game, the Tigers scored 85. The problem was that they allowed 97! Here, they'll face an Ole Miss team which has allowed 82 and 83 points, respectively, since hitting conference play. Overall, Mississippi SEC games are averaging 146 points. Auburn's SEC games are averaging 158. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting, the OVER improving to 9-5-1 the past 15 times that Auburn was off a conference loss. 

I'm playing on DUKE. The Blue Devils come into this game very well-rested and chomping at the bit to get going. Admittedly, things aren't exactly "normal." The Blue Devils have been on an extended layoff and they're going to be without Coach K on the sidelines. Yes, his absence is significant. However, he hasn't been completely out of contact: Krzyzewski had this to say: "I've had Zooms yesterday with my staff to go over Boston College, wrote out our practice plan, had a meeting with my staff this morning. I'll be able to follow practice on Zoom....and then I'll have another meeting with my staff and I'll FaceTime with each of the players individually tonight, and do the best we can ... " While the Eagles may be thinking that a young Duke team is vulnerable, one fact remains unchanged. Duke is more talented. The Eagles, who lost quite a lot from last year, have played some good teams, so they know what they're up against. However, they've also already lost seven times, three of those losses by 12 or more. Syracuse beat this team by 38 points. Speaking of "blowouts," the last two meetings here at Duke saw the Blue Devils win by scores of 88-49 and 80-50. Not many will likely be ready to back Duke in this spot, but I'm projecting another blowout. 

I'm playing on MICHIGAN STATE. While the Knights have the higher ranking, playing at home, I expect the Spartans to have the edge. The Spartans dropped their first three conference games. However, two of those were on the road and the third was against Wisconsin. Last time out, also on the road, they bounced back and picked up this season's first Big Ten win. I expect them to carry the positive momentum into this evening's game. The Spartans haven't fared well at the betting window. Their ATS struggles work in our favor here though as we don't need to lay any points. Keep in mind that the Spartans were favored by 14, 15.5, 21.5, 13 and 28 points the past five times that they hosted the Knights. Yes, Rutgers is improved this season. However, the point remains that the Spartans are offering excellent value. Remember, they're 32-5 the past 2+ seasons at home and that includes a perfect 6-0 record when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 150 to 154.5 range. The Knights, still without Omoruyi, have still won just seven of their past 25 on the road. A 2-point loss against Iowa last time out figures to be deflating. I say that as they left it all on the floor and played great, only to have poor free throw shooting cost them. The Spartans, who have beaten Rutgers every single Big Ten meeting, won't have any sympathy. They need another win and I expect them to get it. 

I'm playing on CHARLESTON SOUTHERN. I believe that this line is too high. Winthrop may be the class of the conference but the Buccaneers are an experienced team which, in my opinion, is better than many realize. Note that Charleston Southern's only loss of greater than 12 points was on the road, at NC State. The Bucanneers, still 21-12 SU their last 33 home lined games, believe that they can win this game and they've had it circled. Winthrop can score but it also gives up 75 ppg. The Eagles won the most recent meeting by 17. However, the Bucs won the previous meeting and the three before that were all decided by four or less. Look for the Buccaneers to bring their "A game," and for this one to prove closer than many will be expecting.

I'm playing on LIPSCOMB. Liberty is off a huge season and has dominated the Atlantic Sun Conference in recent years. The Flames lost a lot from last year though and I believe that they're ripe to get upset here. Note that the Bisons did beat Liberty here last season. Getting nine points, they won 77-71. While Liberty's team has arguably taken a step back, on paper, Lipscomb is arguably stronger than last year. Its also worth noting that four of the past five meetings were decided by seven or less. I like the fact that Liberty hasn't played since 12/22 as there may be some rust. I also like the Lipscomb has built up confidence with three straight wins.  Including last year's upset win over Liberty here, the Bistons are 34-18 ATS their past 50+ as underdogs. Expect them to improve on those stats this afternoon with AT LEAST another cover. 

I'm playing on SAN FRANCISCO. These teams are at opposite ends of the conference. No West Coast Conference team can compete with Gonzaga, as the Bulldogs are in a class of their own this season. However, the Dons are capable of competing with any other team in the conference. Remember, this is a team which beat Virginia earlier. The same cannot be said for San Diego. The Toreros, who are likely destined to finish near the bottom of the conference. San Diego, hit by Covid-19 mitigation measures, didn't get to work together until late in the season. Now, the Toreros have still only had a chance to play four games (SF has played 10) so they still aren't really firing on all cylinders. They're 1-3 and their three losses came by an average of 22 points. Last time out, they lost by 32, at UC-Irvine. While they didn't cover, I like how the Dons eked out a close win against a Grand Canyon team which had been playing very well. The Dons won last season's meeting by 25 points. Knowing they've got Gonzaga on deck, they're going to want to build confidence. Expect them to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way, en route to an other lopsided win. 

I'm playing on TENNESSEE TECH. While the Golden Eagles are winless, I believe that they're favored for a reason and I expect them to earn their first victory here. The Golden Eagles, who have beaten the Redhawks three straight times here at Hooper Eblen Arena, are winless due to the schedule that they've played. Tennessee Tech has played seven of its nine games on the road. Underdogs in every game, until this one, the Golden Eagles have taken on the likes of Indiana, Xavier and Tennessee, to name just a few. Indeed, they're battle-tested and won't be intimidated by a Redhawk team who's toughest opponent was Indiana State. Over the past couple of seasons, SE. Missouri State was 0-2 ATS as a road underdog of three or fewer points. The Golden Eagles won by nine against the Redhawks here last season and I believe that they're an improved team this season. I can't say the same for the Redhawks. Tenn. Tech rolls. 

I'm playing on CSU. The Bulldogs are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Fresno has almost an entirely new starting lineup and has yet to play a game against a quality team. The Bulldogs' two games have come against William Jessup and Fresno Pacific; neither game had a line. The Rams, a far more experienced team to begin with, have played twice as many games overall and they've actually taken on real opponents, like St. Mary's. The Rams have already beaten the Bulldogs by double-digits twice in 2020. They won 80-70 at Fresno in February and they hammered the Bulldogs 86-68 in a game here in January. Prior to the season, Fresno coach Justin Hutson noted: "...It's just a lot of new guys, so the theme is to get them to gel as a team." They haven't had a chance to do that yet. Look for the Rams to take advantage of their inexperience, improving to 3-1 ATS the past couple of seasons, when listed as home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. 

I'm playing on PROVIDENCE. The last time that these teams faced each other was on 3/7/2020. The Friars hammered them by a score of 93-55. The Friars were up 55-25 by halftime. While this one is unlikely to get that ugly, I am absolutely expecting another double-digit win for the Friars. In this season, when teams didn't get to practice in the offseason the way they normally do, actually playing games is very important. In this case, Providence is "battle-tested" with eight games under its belt. I expect this season's experience to prove the difference. The Friars have taken on the likes of Indiana, Davidson, Alabama, TCU, Seton Hall and Butler. By comparison, Depaul has played just one game and that was against Western Illinois. Sure, the Blue Demons won 91-72. However, thats not saying much as the "Leathernecks" were 5-21 last season and didn't bring back a single starter this year. With Depaul just 6-12 ATS its past 18, after scoring 80 or more in its previous game, expect the Friars to pull away for a comfortable win and cover. 

I'm playing on Providence/Butler UNDER the total. This O/U line is higher than any of the five O/U lines for games between these teams in 2019 and 2020. All those games had O/U lines ranging from 127.5 to 136. The most recent meeting had an O/U line of 129.5 and saw the teams combine for 126. The previous meeting had an O/U line of 127.5 and they combined for 128. Again, we're working with a higher number for this one and I feel thats providing us with very fair value. Note that Providence is off an OT game against Seton Hall, which makes the game appear as if it was higher-scoring than it was. The Bulldogs haven't gotten off to the start they were hoping for and know they need to elevate their defensive intensity if they want to knock off their surging guests. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on ALABAMA. This is a mismatch in terms of both talent and experience. The Bucaneers won 30 games last season. However, this year's team has an entirely new starting lineup, as well as a new coach. They're still going to be good, within their conference, but they're not yet ready to challenge the likes of Alabama. Not when the Tide are going to be motivated, as I expect them to be here. The Tide are 2-0 SU this season, when coming off a loss. Off a loss and playing their final game before Christmas, with conference play to follow after that, they're going to be anxious to bounce back with a big win. The Tide are better than their record suggests. In an angry mood, expect them to close out the non-conf. slate with a statement blowout.

I'm playing on MEMPHIS. This isn't just a regular game for the Tigers. They have a score to settle with this team and have had this game circled. The last time that they met, Tulsa beat them by a score of 80-40. Forward D.J. Jeffries noted: "They pretty much humiliated us last year. We're coming back tomorrow with redemption. We're trying to go out there and prove that we're the tougher team and better team, you know, go out there and hit them in the mouth first, because last year I felt like they hit us in the mouth first." Coach Penny Hardaway added: "A lot of players quit in that game and it was very disappointing. So we’re a totally different team now. We have the utmost respect for everybody. ... So now they know what to expect. And it's been an opportunity for us to get another home win, but also get back at Tulsa for how they beat up on us last year." I say its payback time. Memphis rolls. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. The Billikens have a veteran team this year and they've been playing well. However, I expect a highly motivated Minnesota team to hand them their first loss. A closer look at the Billikens' games show that none have come on the road and that none have been against real top quality opponents. They did eke out a win against LSU while beating NC. State. So, those wins were fairly impressive. Again, however, they weren't on the road. The rest of the Billiken's wins all came against weak competition, as they were favored by double-digits in every other game. The Gophers have also taken care of business when playing at home. Their only loss came last time out, at Illinois. The Illini are one of the top teams in the country though, so there's no shame in losing on the road to them. The fact that the Gophers got hammered will have them working extra hard to bounce right back. Indeed, Pitino will use that blowout loss as motivation and have his team ready to go. Look for a huge effort from the Gophers, as they improve to 16-9 ATS the past 25 times that they were off a conference loss. 

I'm playing on ST. MARY'S. The Gaels have played a lot more games than the Rams and I expect that to work to their advantage this evening. Since dropping its opener against Memphis, St. Mary's has won seven straight games. The Rams, on the other hand, have only played two games. Both were against weak competition and neither were on the road. The Rams are just 17-30-1 ATS over the years as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. The Gaels, during the same span, were 24-15 ATS as home favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range. The Gaels are 20-11 SU/ATS their last 31 against MWC opponents, 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS their last seven. The Gaels have won five straight at home, averaging more than 80 ppg while giving up just 63. Expect homecourt to prove significant as the Gaels win their eighth straight overall while covering the relatively small number along the way. 

I'm playing on RICHMOND. Big game between two good teams. It was a recent addition to the schedule and the teams will meet at Indianapolis. Richmond has positive momentum in its corner, while Loyola-Chicago is off its first loss. I expect that to work in favor of the Spiders. I also like the fact that the Spiders have played a couple more games overall than have the Ramblers. With teams not being able to do as much offseason work together as normal, those extra games help more than they hurt. With their loss against the Badgers, ther Ramblers are just 4-10 ATS as underdogs the past 2+ seasons. I really liked how the Spiders responded to their first loss of the season, as they were flawless in the first half against Vanderbilt. Even better was the fact that they allowed the Commodores to come back and cover in the second half, as it kept today's line more reasonable than it easily could have been. I say the Spiders keep rolling, covering the small nubmer along the way. 

I'm playing on St. Joseph's/Drexel UNDER the total. Given Drexel's scoring trouble, this number is generously high. Last time out, the Dragons managed a mere 48 points. That came against La Salle, a team which just gave up 85 against UMass. In its three previous games, Drexel was held to 70 or less every time. Yet, the Dragons still find themselves favored. Thats noteworthy as the UNDER is 17-6 the past few years when they were favorites, already a perfect 4-0 this season. After facing Auburn and Kansas in its first two games, St. Joseph's will certainly welcome a game against a lower-scoring opponent. With Drexel home games averaging only 114.5 points, look for another relatively low-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on ASU. The Miners are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. While they may have played Arizona tough, the Sun Devils are a different beast. Having survived, while receiving a wake-up-call, at Grand Canyon, I expect Arizona State, 6-2 ATS its last eight against CUSA teams, to be all business in this one. The Miners will have an opportunity for a win before Christmas. However, tonight, they're at the end of a road trip and thinking about what might have been at Arizona and also about getting home. Keep in mind that UTEP hasn't won a road game against a team with a winning record, since the 2016/17 season. Once Remy Martin and the Sun Devils get up, as I fully expect them to do, its going to be tough for the Miners to fight back. Look for the Sun Devils to build some positive momentum from their close call at Grand Canyon, keeping the pedal to the metal the entire way and delivering a one-sided blowout. 

I'm playing on AUBURN. I'm expecting this one to get ugly. All five of Auburn's opponents have been better than this one. The Tigers have taken on the likes of Gonzaga and Memphis. Even their lesser opponents (UCF, St. Joseph's etc) were considerably better than Texas Southern. To their credit, the Tigers (Texas Southern) have also taken on some fairly tough teams. They've been mostly competitive, too. That said, they're going to be getting a little road weary for this one. This is their sixth game and its the sixth different arena that they will have played in. That stretch started way out on the West Coast, too. Bruce Pearl will make sure his team doesn't take their opponent for granted. He knows that games will soon get a lot harder and that his team will benefit from a big win in this one. Auburn is off its most impressive win of the season and will now look to build on it with a blowout. Not only is Auburn 30-0 SU its last 30 non-conf game but the Tigers are also 23-0 all-time against teams from the Southwestern Athletic Conference. Texas Southern is just 1-4 ATS its last five as a road underdog in the 12.5 to 15 point range. I see Auburn pulling away and winning by 20+. 

I'm playing on LIPSCOMB. In case you weren't aware, these schools don't like each other and this is a major rivalry. With the two private schools separated by only a couple of miles, this series is known as "The Battle of the Boulevard." For schools of its size, the rivalry is considered the fiercest around. The two schools have met 140 times over the past 64 years. While they may not be well known, the Bisons are well-coached and hungry. They've quietly gone 34-17-1 ATS their last 55 as underdogs. Of course, the Bruins know how dangerous the Bisons are. Lipscomb beat Belmont outright in both 2017 meetings. Since then, they've had four meetings and ALL FOUR were decided by six or fewer points. In the most recent meeting, last December at Belmont, the Bears were laying 13 points but won by only five. Now, the Bruins are on the road against what I believe is an improved Lipscomb team from last year. Note that this is Belmont's first true road game of the season. Also, note that the Bruins were 0-2 ATS the past couple of seasons, when listed as road favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range. While the Bruins have been playing weak teams, the Bisons have been getting battle-tested against the likes of Arkansas and Cincinnati. They finally played a home game last time out and defeated S.E. Missouri State by six. I like their chances of winning this one outright but in a game which could well come down to the wire, like recent games in this rivalry have been doing, I'm happy to grab the points. 

I'm playing on Nevada/Grand Canyon OVER the total. When these teams last met, almost exactly two years ago, the O/U line was 150.5. We're working with a much lower number tonight. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. While the competition has admittedly been weak, first year coach Bryce Drew, who has had success with offenses in the past, has the Antelopes' offense clicking. Over its last two games, led by its talented front court, Grand Canyon has scored 94 and 88 points. Nevada, which has faced considerably tougher competition, allowed 85 points last time out. The Wolfpack offense should have a chance to "get healthy" in this one. While its a new era for the Antelopes, its still worth noting that the OVER is 14-9 the past couple of seasons when they were listed as underdogs. During that span, Nevada saw the OVER go 2-0 when listed as a road favorite of three or less. With both teams scoring right to the final buzzer, expect those stats to improve. 

I'm playing on LBSU/SF UNDER the total. As of this writing, these teams are slated to play at Kaiser Permanente Arena, home of the Warriors G-League team. Thats 70+ miles away from the SF campus, so isn't ideal for the Dons' shooters. It shouldn't affect their defense though. The Dons have held three of their last four opponents to 60 or less, the first of those being Virginia. Long Beach State managed just 61 points in its lone road game, at Loyola Marymount. I expect the Beach to have some trouble scoring tonight. SF has yet to reach the 90 mark in any of its six games, averaging 75.3. All things considered, this number is generous and I look for the final combined score to prove lower than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on WYOMING. The Cowboys are off a momentum-building comeback win at Oregon State and come in full of confidence. Facing a very young Denver team, which will struggle this season, offers an opportunity for them to build momentum with a blowout win. I expect them to make the most of it. This is a rivalary that goes back a lot of years and the Cowboys have historically dominated the Pioneers here. The fact that Denver actually scored the upset last time here (2018) won't be forgotten and will help to ensure the Cowboys keep their foot on the gas the entire way. The Pioneers lost by 20 against UC Riverside last time out, which doesnt bode well for them here. Now, they hit to the road where they're 1-28 SU their last 29. Expect a one-sided blowout. 

I'm playing on RUTGERS. These are both good teams and both brought back a lot of starters from last year. The problem for Syracuse is that its missing a couple of theirs. Buddy Boeheim and Bourama Sidibe, each important pieces, are both out. Boeheim got a positive Covid test while Sidibe is recovering from a knee injury. Of course, the one starter that the Orange did lose from last year's team was a big one and will be tough to replace. Elijah Hughes led the entire ACC in scoring last season. Syracuse 8-11 ATS its last 19 against teams which score 77 or more. During the same span, the Knights are 12-5 ATS against opponents that score 77 or more and 9-4 ATS against teams which allow 64 or fewer points per game. I say Rutgers is catching 'Cuse at the right time. Look for the Knights to move to 4-1 ATS the past five times that they were listed as home favorites in the 3.5 to six range. 

I'm playing on ARIZONA. You can't really call this one an instate "rivalry," as the Wildcats crush this team every time that they meet. The last five meetings have had scores of 91-52, 101-67, 92-37, 77-44 and 93-50. Every win by more than 30. This season's Wildcats are young and they're currently missing a few key players. However, unlike their guests, they're talented. Also, unlike their guests, they've got a couple of games under their belts. While the Widcats have had a few games cancelled, they've at least gotten to play. The Lumberjacks have had each of their games cancelled. I like how the Wildcats were tested last time out and prevailed, a 70-67 win over Eastern Washington. Thats the type of win that a young team can build positive momentum from. The Cats still have enough to lay a beating on their overmatched guests. I expect them to pull away for another 30+ point win. 

I'm playing on TULSA. The home team has won by exactly 14 points each of the past two seasons, with nearly identical scores. Playing at home, the Mavericks took last year's game, 73-59. However, in the most recent game here at Tulsa, the Golden Hurricane won by a score of 72-58. At home, I expect another double-digit win for Tulsa this evening. To their credit, the Mavericks have fought pretty hard, eking out a pair of covers in their two true road games. They still lost both though, most recently falling by 12 on Wednesday. They've got some winnable games coming up after this one, but I expect them to be in over their heads here. As of this writing, the O/U line is 135, at most shops. Thats noteworthy as Tulsa has long thrived when playing at home, with games projected to play at this tempo. The Hurricane are 39-16 SU and 32-22-1 ATS over the years, when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 135 to 139.5 range, 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS the past 2+ seasons. During that span, the Mavericks were just 2-4 ATS (1-5 SU) when playing a road game with a total in the same range. Lay the points. 

I'm playing on LA TECH. These schools were disappointed to have their football game cancelled a few weeks ago. However, they'll get a chance to settle things on the hardwood and I really like how things set up for the Bulldogs. This is a quality LA Tech team, one which now has a couple of games under its belt. Both resulted in SU wins but narrow ATS losses. (Last time out, LA Tech won by 14, laying 16.5.) Now the Bulldogs face a run of instate opponents. After Louisiana-Monroe, they'll face Louisiana State (LSU) SE Louisiana and Louisiana-Lafayette. Needless to say, LSU will be a tougher challenge. So, the Bulldogs will look to build momentum with a blowout win. Note that with that LSU game not until Sunday, there's no reason to rest stars. ULM, with a revamped roster, was going to be outmatched regardless but what makes matters worse is that the Warhawks have yet to even play a game. All those new faces are going to take time to come together and it won't be happening tonight. Look for the Bulldogs to keep the pedal to the metal, pulling away for a decisive win and improving to 18-7 ATS the past 25 times that they played a game with an O/U line in the 130s. 

I'm playing on MICHIGAN. I successfully played against the Wolverines in their last game. However, I like how they were tested and that they won the game in OT. I believe that will serve as a wake up call while also providing positive momentum. Ball State, on the other hand, has had some time off since a deflating 1-point loss in their first game. Not ideal. (Ball State just 1-4 ATS its past five, with five or six day's rest in between games.) This is a team which needs to practice and to play. Its also far from ideal that the Cardinals have been without Coleman and Jones, a pair of important players. It doesn't appear that either will be available but even if one or both were, they wouldn't be at 100%. Either way, Michigan has too much talent and size and will ultimately pull away for a decisive win. Lay the points and look for the Wolverines to move to 11-7-2 ATS (19-1 SU) their last 20, as home faovrites in the 12.5 to 15 range. 

I'm playing on LOUISVILLE. The Hilltoppers are indeed a very capable team, one which has performed well in the underdog role in recent seasons. However, the Cardinals handled them last year, a 71-54. While they aren't at the level that last year's team was, I believe that the Cardinals' superior defense will again be the difference. Note that WKU entered last year's game shooting 41.1% from beyond the arc but went just 1-for-17 against the stifling Cardinal defense. This year, through three games, Louisville is allowing 59.3 ppg while WKU is allowing 75.3. With an O/U line in the low 140s, note that the Hilltoppers are 0-3 SU/ATS the past couple of seasons, when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 140 to 144.5 range. During that span, the Cards are 6-1 SU at home, with a line in the same range. Expect them to improve on those stats, covering the relatively small number along the way. 

I'm playing on OAKLAND. Admittedly, the Golden Grizzlies really stunk in their three games at the Xavier Invitational. Those poor performances have helped provide us with a very generous pointspread. I believe that the Grizzlies are better than they showed and I believe that the big line is offering excellent value. Note that Michigan is just 1-3 ATS its past four, as a home favorite in the -24.5 to -30 range. The Grizzlies did improve each time out in the tournament, covering in the final game. Each time out, they scored more points and allowed less, than they did in their previous game. Look for them to provide a tougher test than many will be expecting, improving to 9-3 ATS the past 12 times that they scored 60 or fewer points in their previous game.

I'm playing on ODU. The Monarchs bring back a lot from last year and are poised for a big bounce back season. The same cannot be said for the Tribe. William & Mary lost a lot from last season, promptiing coach to Fischer to comment: "Our team is going to look completely different from what it did last year ... " He'd go on to describe having so many new faces as "daunting." Speaking of last season, the Monarchs haven't forgotten that they were thumped at William & Mary, losing by 17 on the road. Note that ODU won by 18, at home, when the teams met the previous season. This is a chance at some payback and a chance to show how far this team has come. The Monarchs have had this one circled and I expect them to deliver a blowout. 

I'm playing on Texas San Antonio / Texas Rio Grande UNDER the total. UTRGV managed only 55 points in its opener. The Roadrunners managed considerably more. However, they were facing a very weak opponent. Note that UTSA has seen the UNDER go 9-5 over the years when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 150 to 154.5 range, a 2-1 Under mark the past couple of seasons. During that span, in games with a total, UTRGV saw the UNDER go 15-9 in non-conference games. The Vaqueros aren't well known but they're going to be respectable this season and an improvement on defense should be a big part of that. Likewise, the Roadrunners are committing to improved defense to improve on last year, when they arguably underachieved. In a game where both teams believe they can win, I expect plenty of defensive intensity and the final combined score to stay beneath the generously high number. 

I'm playing on MOREHEAD STATE. While the Spiders are obviously the stronger team, I really like how this one sets up for the Eagles. Most know that Richmond brought back all its starters. However, it should be noted that one of them, Nick Sherod, was lost to injury. That's a big blow. This will be the Spiders first game, as their game against Detroit was cancelled. The Eagles, on the other hand, have already taken on Kentucky. So, they've had a chance to work off some of the offseason rust. Speaking of Kentucky, the Spiders have a big showdown against the Wildcats up next. If they do get up big in this one, they could easily take their foot off the gas a bit and give their starters a little extra rest for that one. Also, note that this game is being played in the state of Kentucky; Lexington is only an hour or so away from Morhead State's campus. Last year, Richmond also had a big game (Vanderbilt) on deck for its second game and it ended up getting taken to OT (100-98 win) in its first game, despite being listed as a double-digit favorite. Look for this one to also prove closer than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on Kansas/Gonzaga UNDER the total. Kansas could have potentially won it all last season. The Jayhawks were loaded and playing great. They're still ultra-talented, as per usual. However, they did lose a lot from last year's team. Gonzaga, like Kansas, is always loaded. The Bulldogs had an outside shot last season and look even stronger this season. That said, they lost some scoring, too. I believe that points are going to be fairly hard to come by and feel that this O/U line is generously high. Kansas isn't in the underdog role all that often. However, when it is, the UNDER has gone a profitable 51-25-2 over the years. Expect those stats to improve this afternoon. 

I'm playing on ALABAMA. This is a major mismatch and the Tide could easily win by 30+. Alabama, in year two of the "Ball and Oats" era, is poised to have a big year and is expecting to make a return to the NCAA tournament. The Tide, who bring back the SEC's two top returning scorers from last year, will be looking to get things started with a statement win. In addition to being more talented than the Gamecocks, the Tide are far more experienced. The Gamecocks are just 1-4 ATS the past five times that they were road underdogs of 12.5 or more points. They won't be able to keep up and are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Expect a blowout. 

I'm playing on COLORADO. The Buffaloes won this season's previous meeting by 22 points. I expect another double-digit win this evening. The Cougars know they're outclassed in this one. With six losses in their past seven, they don't have much confidence. Having already played their last three on the road and understandably concerned about the coronavirus back home in Washington, its going to be tough to get the Cougars to play up to Colorado's level. Their last two losses came by a combined 30 points. Note that the Cougars are just 7-17 SU/ATS the past 24 times that they were off b2b conference losses. The Buffaloes come in on a losing streak of their own. Unlike the Cougars, they still believe that they can make some noise in this tournament. They've got a clear talent edge in this one and I expect them to demonstrate it. 

I'm playing on UTSA. The Blazers have the better record and the higher seed. However, I believe that the Roadrunners are the more talented team and I expect them to prove it now that it really matters. UTSA is led by a pair of excellent guards. Jhivvan Jackson leads the conference – and ranks second in the entire country – with 27.2 points per game. He also supplies 5.8 rebounds per game. That ranks second best in the nation among players six-feet and under. He has scored 20 or more points in 27 of 31 games. He scored 30 or more a dozen times, including a pair of 40+ point explosions. While Jackson received first team All Conference honors for the second straight season, his teammate Keaton Wallace earned second team honors. Wallace averaged 18.5 ppg after putting up 20.2 ppg the previous season. Wallace plays a lot of minutes, gets to the line and hits from downtown. In other words, the Roadrunners backcourt is in great shape. I expect that elite backcourt to make the difference in this one. UTSA is 3-0 SU/ATS its past three, when coming in off b2b conference losses. UAB, on the other hand, is 0-5 SU/ATS, its past five, when playing on a neutral court with an O/U line in the 145 to 149.5 range. Roadrunners get it done!

I'm playing on Utah/Oregon State UNDER the total. Prior to his team's regular season finale against Colorado, Utah coach Larry Krystkowiak implored his team to play with more defensive intensity. Krystkowiak noted: "It's just a matter of consistency. It can't be a sometimes thing, it has to be an all-the-time thing. We can't decide to not run back. Sprint back on defense like that's the most-important possession in the game. We have to get a stop and we'll have three guys jogging back on defense." He went on to say: "...This is the mental time of year and we're going to have to look a lot more down the stretch like defense is important to us..." Utah would go on to hold Colorado to 72 points, despite the game going to OT. Speaking of good defense, the Utes played in this stadium, here in Vegas, back in December and they held then #6 Kentucky to just 66 points. (The UNDER is 6-1 last seven times that they were neutral court underdogs.) As for the Beavers, they displayed even better defense last time they faced the Utes, as they held Utah to a mere 51 points, just 19 in the first half. Also, the Beavers allowed just 56 in their regular season finale. With the UNDER at 9-2 the last 11 times that OSU was a neutral court favorite, look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on WRIGHT STATE. Its early in the conference tournament schedule but we've already seen some upsets. Don't expect to see another here. The Raiders are the #1 seed for good reason. Wright State outscores teams by a 81.4 to 70.7 margin, by far the best in the Horizon. The Flames, on the other hand, get outscored by an average of 69.1 to 69. Their 69 points per game ranks as the third worst number in the Horizon. The Raiders probably overlooked the Flames the first time these teams met and it led to Illinois- Chicago scoring the upset. The rematch was an entirely different story though as a superior Wright State team won 75-58. Including that victory, the Raiders have won 47 of 60 conference games. The Raiders, 5-1 ATS in the Horizon Tournament the past two seasons, will know not to overlook the Flames this time. Expect them to pull away for another double-digit win. 

I'm playing on Iowa/Illinois OVER the total. The Big Ten typically is known as a defensive conference. So, many will see a number in the high 140s and be tempted to go with the 'under.' Don't give in to those temptations. The reality is that these teams can both score. Illinois averages 77.6 ppg at home and will be going against an Iowa defense that gives up exactly that many (77.6) points per game on the road. The Hawkeyes are quietly the highest scoring team (77.8 ppg!) in the conference though, as they can put up points whereever they play. After seeing its last game against Purdue finish above the total, the Hawkeyes have seen the OVER go 6-3 in March the past 2+ seasons. Expect both teams to put up a big number, as those stats improve this evening. 

I'm playing on OREGON. The Cardinal are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Playing perhaps their best basketball of the season, the Ducks come in on a roll. This was an Oregon team which was loaded with talent but also one which had a lot of roster turnover from last season and which needed some time to learn to work together. The well-coached Ducks have had that time and are now peaking at the right time. After a loss at Stanford on Feb. 1, the Ducks lost at Oregon State. However, since that time, they've won five of six, including three straight. The Ducks followed up a 1-point win against Arizona by avenging the loss against the rival Beavers with a 15-point blowout. Next, they destroyed Cal by 34. Now, on Senior Day, they will have payback on their minds from the loss at Stanford. They catch the Cardinal off a close 3-point loss at Oregon State. When these teams played here last season, the Ducks were favored by six. They won by 23. This season, Stanford averages less than 70 ppg on the road while Oregon averages more than 80 at home. Not only did the Ducks score 90 last game, they allowed just 56. They're 22-8 ATS their last 30, after allowing 60 or fewer points. Expect another double-digit win. 

I'm playing on MISSOURI STATE. The Sycamores are the higher seed but now that it really matters, I believe that the Bears will prove to be the better team. The Bears are peaking at the right time, playing their best basketball of the season. When these teams met on 2/1, the Bears were mired in a slump. Indiana State won. Since that time, however, the Bears have gone 5-3 including a win against these same Sycamores. Last time out, they hammered Southern Illinois by a score of 84-59. Its no coincidence that this Missouri State team got better with the addition of senior (walk-on) Ross Owens. As Owens noted: "We're playing better. We're winning. Everybody on the team is working for the same goal, and that's winning." Bears get it done. 

I'm playing on NIU/Ball State UNDER the total. While this O/U line may appear low, it could easily be lower. The UNDER has been money for both these teams all season. The Huskies have seen the UNDER go 19-8 overall including 4-1 when playing a game with an O/U line in the 120s. The UNDER is 9-1 in their road games. Not to be outdone, the Cardinals have seen the UNDER go 20-9 overall, 9-4 at home and 2-0 as home favorites of three or less. The last two meetings have finished with 122 and 121 points. The Huskies allowed just 50 last time out. Off that dominant defensive victory over Toledo, look for the UNDER to move to 9-2 when they were off a MAC win. 

I'm playing on Wyoming/Nevada UNDER the total. While Nevada is a relatively high-scoring team, the opposite is true of Wyoming. The Cowboys are by far the lowest scoring team in the conference. They average only 61.1 ppg overall. The Wyoming defense isn't that bad though. The Cowboys allow a respectable 69.1 ppg. When these teams met on 1/14, the O/U line was 133. That one finished with 135. More recently, when they met at Wyoming on 2/25, the O/U line was 140. That one finished with 141. Two tough losses for 'under' bettors, both going over by a bucket or less. They're on a neutral court now though and there's going to be some added defensive intensity, due to it being a tournament game. Expect the Cowboys to have some trouble scoring, leading to the final score staying beneath the generously high total. 

I'm playing on DRAKE. While these teams split the regular season meetings, both winning at home, I believe that the Bulldogs bring more to the table in this matchup. Note that Drake is 10-2 ATS its last 12 on a neutral court and that includes a 3-1 ATS mark as a neutral court favorite of six or less. Illinois State does check in off a win at Evansville but is just 3-9 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off a win as an underdog. The last time that the Redbirds played back-to-back games away from home, they lost by 20. Bulldogs get it done, setting up a rematch with top-seeded Northern Iowa in the quarters. 

I'm playing on INDIANA. The Hoosiers already hammered the Gophers at Minnesota, a 68-56 win. Knowing that they need to take care of business to stamp their ticket to the Big Dance, I expect the Hoosiers to take care of business once again. To their credit, the Gophers have played better recently. However, they're off b2b heartbreaking losses, losing by a single point against Maryland and then by just two at Wisconsin. That Maryland loss really stung, as they blew a huge lead (up 16 at half) and lost on a 3-pointer with less than two seconds to go. Then, to go and lose another really close one against the Badgers, has to take a toll. I expect them to be emotionally drained. Look for a highly motivated effort from the Hoosiers as they complete the series sweep, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on Fordham/GW UNDER the total. The Rams have real trouble scoring on the road. They've lost eight straight away games, averaging a mere 51 ppg during that skid. While they may not be able to score, the Rams are a very stingy team. They allow just 62.3 ppg, which ranks in the top 20 in the country. Not surprisingly, the UNDER has been money in Fordham games all season. The Colonials, meanwhile, average only 66.6 ppg. Thats just 271st in the Div. 1 rankings. They, too, have been a profitable 'under' team. Last time out, they managed only 51. This season's earlier meeting produced just 113 points. Expect another low-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on Wisconsin-Milwaukee/Youngstown State UNDER the total. These teams just faced each other to close out the regular season. That game snuck below the total of 142.5, finishing with 142 points. Now, facing each other in tournament play, I expect to see some defensive intensity, leading to an even lower score. Note that the Panthers have seen the UNDER go 7-3 their last 10 tournament games, 3-0 their last three. During that span, the Penguins have seen five of eight tournament games stay below the number. The Youngstown State defense hasn't been great overall but the Penguins are stingier at home. Meanwhile, the Panthers score less on the road but allow about the same on the road as the do at home. Look for it to all add up to the final score proving lower than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on WISCONSIN-MILWAUKEE. These teams are very evenly matched and they've already played two really close games against each other this season. In both cases, the road team won. The Penguins won by four at Milwaukee. The Panthers won by two, here at Youngstown State. So, they know that they can win here. I'm expecting another close one, as they teams open tournament play. The Youngstown State defense isn't good and that makes covering points difficult. The Penguins are 4-8 ATS the last 12 times that they were home favorites of six or less. They're also 9-16 ATS their last 25, when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 140 to 144.5 range. They've won just seven of their last 34 games played in the month of March. The Panthers are 7-3 ATS their last 10, when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 140 to 144.5 range. In what should be another close one, grab the points.

I'm playing on Texas Tech / Baylor OVER the total. While I obviously respect the Baylor defense, I feel that this number will prove to be too low. While Baylor games may average only 130.4 points, Texas Tech road games average 136.5 points. The last meeting between the teams here had an O/U line of 125.5 but finished with 135. While that came last January, its worth mentioning that the OVER is 8-2 the last 10 Baylor games in the month of March. The Red Raiders have seen the OVER go 3-0 the past three times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 6.5 to 9 range. As for the Bears, off the 75-72 loss to TCU, note that they've seen the OVER go 14-6-1 the past 21 times that they were off a Big 12 loss. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will expecting. 

I'm playing on Minnesota/Wisconsin UNDER the total. Needless to say, both these teams are very capable defensively. When they met earlier, at Minnesota, these teams combined for just 122 points, that game staying below the number. That was with the Gophers scoring 70 on their home floor though. They likely won't get nearly as many here. In their previous two games against the Badgers, the Gophers had scored just 59 and 51 points. Both those games also fell beneath the total. Comfortably. In fact, the UNDER is a perfect 5-0 the past five meetings. Overall, the Gophers have seen the UNDER go a lucrative 22-10 their last 32 on the road. Look for more of the same this afternoon. 

I'm playing on COLORADO. The Buffaloes may be slight underdogs here but I believe they've got more talent and I absolutely expect them to come away with the victory. The Buffaloes are 5-2 ATS off a SU loss and 10-5 ATS off an ATS loss. Having dropped two straight (and three straight against the number) they're going to be a highly determined team. Note that Colorado is 2-0 SU/ATS as a road underdog of three or less. While it wins games with its defense, Colorado, which scored 81 when these teams met at Boulder, still averages more than 71 ppg. Thats noteworthy as the Cardinal are 0-7 when they allow 68 or more. I say the Buffs bounce back.

I'm playing on UC IRVINE. The Anteaters are playing great basketball. They've won nine of their last 10. The lone loss came against these same Gauchos, at UC Santa Barbara. Tonight, its payback time. The Gauchos may be without leading scorer Max Heidegger, as he went down with a left ankle injury midway through the first half of their last game. UCSB head coach Joe Pasternack had this to say: "It was terrible to see Max go down ..." Either way, I expect them to struggle against the Anteaters. The Anteaters only give up only 60.9 ppg at home and will absolutely make scoring difficult for the Gauchos, who have failed to hit the 50 mark in two of their last three visits here. The last three games here between these teams have seen the Anteaters win by scores of 83-70, 69-49 and 64-47. Expect another double-digit win here. 

I'm playing on Arizona/UCLA UNDER the total. These teams met a few weeks ago. That O/U line was also in the 130s. Yet, they combined for only 117 points. I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. Prior to a 75-72 game against ASU, the Bruins had allowed 63, 58 and 57 points. Arizona is one of the stingier teams in the conference too though; the Wildcats allow 65 ppg. The Wildcats' confidence may be a little shaken on offense though as they managed a mere 48 points last game. With UCLA having won the earlier meeting, it should be noted that the UNDER is 5-1 the past six times that Arizona attempted to avenge an earlier home loss. The UNDER is also 7-3-1 when the Bruins were getting points. Expect a defensive affair.

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. After losing 9-straight, the Huskies finally earned a victory last time out. It wasn't just any win either as they hammered Cal by a score of 87-52. Off that momentum-building blowout, the losing streak now in the rear-view mirror, I expect the Huskies to follow it up with another big win against their instate rivals. Note that one of those nine losses came at Washington State, the Cougars winning by a 79-67 score. Needless to say, the Huskies haven't forgotten. Prior to that 2/9 loss, the Huskies had beaten the Cougars four straight times. The last meeting here at Washington saw the Huskies win 85-67. The previous meeting here at Washingto resulted in a 80-62 win for the Huskies. Remember, Washington was ranked at one point and started the season with a win against #1 Baylor. This is a team with some talent. Expect the revenge-minded Huskies to salvage the series split with another double-digit win. 

I'm playing on Purdue/Indiana UNDER the total. The last time that these teams played here (1/19/19) the O/U line was 141 and they combined for only 125. I don't think they'll even get that many tonight as I'm expecting another defensive battle tonight. Purdue allows just 62.6 ppg, right there among the best in the conference. However, the Boilermakers 68.3 ppg on offense ranks near the bottom of the heap. "Over" bettors have fared pretty well when the Hoosiers have been favored. However, the opposite is true when Indiana is an underdog. In fact, the UNDER is 7-1 when the Hoosiers have been getting points. Purdue comes in on a losing streak and fell, as a home favorite, against Michigan last time out. Thats noteworthy as the UNDER is 6-3 the last couple of seasons when the Boilers were off an upset loss in conference play and 3-1 when they were off a home loss. With some extra defensive intensity right out of the gate, look for those stats to improve here. 

I'm playing on PENN STATE. While I successfully played against the Nittany Lions in their last game, a 68-60 loss at Indiana, I'm coming right back with them in this one. Back at home and now off consecutive losses, the Lions are going to be in an angry mood. The fact that they already lost at Rutgers will only add to that. The Knights won their first road game of 2020, eking out a victory at Nebraska on 1/3. Since then, however, they've lost every single road game that they've played, going 0-5 SU in those games. In fact, that win at Nebraska was their only true road win all season. The bottom line is that the Knights are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The last time that Penn State played a home game, after having lost their previous two or more, they hammered Ohio State by a score of 90-76. Expect another double-digit win this evening. 

I'm playing on Virginia/V-Tech UNDER the total. While this number may seem low, its now low enough. As per usual, Virginia is a dominant defensive team. The Cavs allow 52.7 ppg. When these teams met earlier, the O/U line was 111.5 and they combined for 104. The Hokies managed only 39 in that one. They have yet to hit 60 in any of their last three games against Virginia. V-Tech players had this to say of Virginia's defense. Jalen Cone: "It was definitely a blow in the face. Those guys were big. Very big. Those guys, they could guard the ball very well. It was shocking for all the freshmen." Wabissa Bede: "You think it's a good shot, but it's really a bad shot. It's just the shot they want you to take. You might be wide-open and there’d be like 27 seconds [left] on the shot clock, rather than keep going and you can wind them down like they do to everybody. They don't shoot until less than six seconds on the shot clock." Look for the Cavs to effectively slow the tempo once again, leading to the final combined score staying below the number once again. 

I'm playing on DAVIDSON. Off a disappointing and close loss at St. Joseph's, I liked how the Wildcats responded against Rhode Island. Though they narrowly missed out on the cover, they were able to pull off the OT victory. Thats the type of win they can build momentum from. Stepping down in class to face a weaker La Salle team, I expect the Wildcats to deliver a far more convincing victory. The last time that the teams played here, Davidson won by 19. While the Explorers have won their last two, those wins came against teams below them in the conf. standings, which is not the case here. Prior to the two wins, the Explorers had been mired in a 1-9 SU stretch, their most recent two losses coming by 15 and 27 points. The last time that the Explorers played the second of back-to-back road games, as they're doing here, they lost by 18. I say that the "good Davidson" shows up and delivers another beatdown. 

I'm playing on OKLAHOMA STATE. The Jayhawks are laying a massive number here. Given the fact that they're going to be a tired team, after leaving it all on the floor to win at Baylor, I believe that number will prove to be too high. Bill Self had this to say of his players: "They are exhausted. They've got to be toast. Doke (Azubuike) and Marcus (Garrett) and Ochai (Agbaji) and 'Dot' (Devon Dotson) … those guys have gotta be toast with as many minutes as they played." After winning by 17 on Saturday, the Cowboys have won three of their last four. Though they did stumble at WVU, the Cowboys had covered their previous two on the road, including an 8-point loss at Baylor, a game where they were getting +12.5 points. Getting even more points against a tired Kansas team, expect the Cowboys to rise to the occasion with AT LEAST another cover. 

I'm playing on INDIANA. The Nittany Lions come in with the better record. However, the Hoosiers have both homecourt and momentum on their side. Last time out, Penn State saw its winning streak snapped, losing at home against Illinois. Indiana, on the other hand, hammered Minnesota by double-digits, on the road, last time out. In their last home game, the Hoosiers handled Iowa, also by double-digits. Playing with revenge from a loss at Penn State and hungry for a win over a ranked opponent, I look for the Hoosiers to get it done once again. 

I'm playing on DUKE. The Hokies are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. After getting upset at NC State, the Blue Devils are going to be in an angry mood here and looking to keep the pedal to the metal the entire game. After they're last loss, the Blue Devils were listed as a -19-point favorite against Miami in their next game. They won by 30. Speaking of Miami, the Hurricanes just dropped 102 points on the Hokies, at V-Tech. Note that the Hokies are 1-4 ATS when off an upset loss. They're 2-6 off a conf. loss overall. The Blue Devils are a dominant 18-4 ATS (20-2 SU) the past 22 times that they lost by double-digits in a game where they were favored, 11-2 ATS when off a double-digit loss in a game where they were favored by six or more. Expect this one to get ugly. 

I'm playing on Rider/Iona OVER the total. As of this writing, Iona is favored by a single point, at most shops, -1.5 at some. So, this is expected to be a close one, both teams having a chance to win. That means we're likely to see scoring the entire way, unlike some games where the big favorite gets a big lead and then takes its foot off the gas. Iona has seen the OVER go 6-3 as a home favorite, 3-1 as a home favorite of three or fewer points. Its also worth mentioning that the OVER is 5-1 when the Gaels were off an ATS win. Rider, which looks to avenge an earlier home loss, has seen the OVER go 2-0 the past couple of seasons, when playing with revenge from a home loss where it was favored by seven or more points. The Broncs have also seen the OVER go 12-7 the past couple of seasons, when off a win of 15 or more points. The last meeting here had an O/U line of 172. This one is obviously much lower, which I feel is offering us excellent value. Expect a high-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. Both teams are currently struggling. Both will be looking for a win but I expect homecourt to prove the difference. While they haven't fared well overall at the betting window this season; this is one role which the Huskies have performed well in. They're 2-1 ATS as home favorites of six or fewer points, 1-0 ATS as a home favorite of three or less. Tonight, they'll be looking to avenge an earlier 6-point loss at Stanford. The last time that the teams played here, the Huskies hammered the Cardinal by an 80-64 score. Stanford is just 3-7 ATS the past 10 times it was a road underdog of six or less. As disappointing as this season has been, the Huskies match up well against the Cardinal. In the earlier game at Stanford, the Huskies were up eight at halftime and they were up 12 with a little more than 10 minutes to go. They let that one get away but tonight, playing at home, look for them to avenge that loss, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on Long Beach State/UC Irive OVER the total. These teams played a low-scoring game against each other, at Long Beach State, last month. The O/U line was 142 and they combined for just 119. However, note that we're working with a lower O/U line here and that the previous five meetings had all produced at least 142 combined points. Long Beach State gives up a whopping 81.4 ppg on the road. Meanwhile, UC Irvine scores 81.5 ppg at home. The 49'ers have seen the OVER go 8-4 as road underdogs. The OVER is also a perfect 4-0 the past four times that they were off a home win, when listed as an underdog. The Anteaters, who are currently favored by 15, have seen the OVER go 8-1 the past nine times that they were home favorites of greater than a dozen points. Look for those stats to improve tonight, as this one proves higher-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on VIRGINIA. The Eagles are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Cavs haven't forgotten that BC beat them, at Boston College, last month. Remember, this is a BC team which the Cavs hammered 83-56 in last season's lone meeting. That was at BC, too. Now, finally catching the Eagles on their home floor, this one should also result in a blowout. The Eagles are 0-2 ATS off an upset win, within the conference, when listed as a home underdog. Overall, they're 2-5 ATS off a home win. Off b2b close wins, and now stepping down considerably in class, the Cavs are ready to deliver a beating. BC allows 72.9 ppg on the road while Virginia allows 48.4 ppg at home. Expect a rout. 

I'm playing UNLV on the ML. The Rams hammered UNLV at Colorado State earlier. Playing at home, I expect the Rebels to have their revenge this evening. Prior to this month's earlier meeting, the Rebels had won the last three meetings. The last here in Vegas saw the Rebels win by two, as 9.5 point favorites. While that wasnt enough for the cover, they did win SU, again. The Rams are 3-8 SU as underdogs. The Rebels are 10-3 SU as favorites. Going back further finds them at 40-13 SU the past 2+ season, when favored. Expect them to improve on those stats this evening. 

I'm playing on Iowa State/Kansas OVER the total. The Jayhawks have primarily been an 'under' team this season. However, that doesn't mean we can't find value going the other way. Indeed, the earlier 'under' results have helped keep their O/U lines lower than they could easily otherwise be. I won with the OVER in their game vs. OU on Saturday and I look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. Consider that the last 25 meetings between these teams have all seen O/U lines greater than 141. The last 20 of those all had O/U lines of 143 or more. The Cyclones have seen the OVER go 6-3 on the road. The OVER is also 2-0 when the Cyclones played with one or less day's rest in between games. Iowa State scored 81 on Saturday while Kansas scored 87. Look for Kansas to put up another big number here and Iowa State to provide the rest, en route to the final combined score finishing above the number. 

I'm playing on VILLANOVA. The Wildcats have struggled to cover of late. However, they can finally claim the "All-Time Big 5 Title" lead, with a win this afternoon and I fully expect a game against the rival Owls to bring out their best. Last meeting, Villanova pulled away for a double-digit (69-59) win. Not only are the Owls outclassed, they're 1-3 SU/ATS their last four, when off a conference win. They're also dealing with a few players who are playing at less than 100%. Wright this of Villanova's history and the importance of this game: "We talk to them about basketball history all the time and a big part of Villanova history is Big 5 history and living here in the city. We want them to respect Philadelphia basketball ..." I like that Nova checks in off a 1-point win over Marquette, as thats the type of victory a team can build momentum from. Look for the Cats to do exactly that this afternoon. 

I'm playing on COLORADO. The Beavers are going to face an angry bunch of Buffaloes on Saturday. Not only is Colorado angry about blowing its last game, at Oregon, but the Buffaloes also haven't forgotten that the Beavers upset them, at Boulder, back on January 5th. At the time, the Buffs may have been in letdown mode, off a big win over Oregon. That sure won't be the case this time though. Colorado is a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS the past four times that it was off a loss. Off their previous three 2020 losses, the Buffaloes won by scores of 91-52, 78-56 and 78-57. Last season, the Beavers also won at Boulder. Then, in the rematch, the revenge-minded Buffaloes went to Oregon State and, laying -2.5, won by a score of 73-58. Expect more of the same. 

I'm playing on New Mexico/UNLV UNDER the total. The Rebels play at a relatively slow pace and they often have trouble scoring on the road. Last time away from Vegas, they scored only 54 at Fresno State. Really, their last game (at home vs. Nevada) they only finished above the number due to a lot of unncessary (in my opinion) trips to the line for both teams and the game going to OT. (I was at the game and thought there were an awful lot of ticky-tack fouls called early in both halves.) This number is high. Expect the final score to prove lowe than most will be expecting. 

I'm playing on SOUTH DAKOTA STATE. There's an obvious talent gap between these teams, as evidenced by their records and their places in the Summitt standings. The Pioneers are in last while the Jackrabbits are challenging for the top spot. The Jackrabbits have won seven straight in the series, winning by an average of 13 points. Tonight's margin of victory should be even greater. Denver has lost 11 straight on the road, getting outscored by an average of 82.2 to 66.7. Meanwhile, South Dakota State has won 13 straight at home, outscoring visiting teams by an average score of 81.8 to 63.3. The Pioneers are 4-9 ATS their last 13 when attempting to avenge a loss and they're 1-4 ATS their last five when off an upset loss as a home favorite. The Jackrabbits have been money as home favorites all season long. No reason for them not to keep the pedal to the medal the entire way and win this one by 20+. 

I'm playing on Arizona State/Stanford OVER the total. A look at recent meetings between these teams reveals O/U lines of 149.5, 158.5, 158.5, 149 and 151.5. Needless to say, we're working with a much lower O/U number tonight; I feel that it'll prove to be too low. Those five games had combined scores of 186, 163, 167, 156 and 142. All five of those scores, of course, would have easily finished above tonight's low number today. Note that the OVER is 2-0 when ASU played a game with an O/U line in the 130s. As for the Cardinal, note that the OVER is 4-1 the past five times that they were off b2b road losses. ASU's last road game produced 170 points. Stanford's last game produced 155 points. With both teams scoring the entire way, look for this one to finish above the low number. 

I'm playing on UNLV. I won with Nevada when these teams faced each other at Reno a few weeks ago. I've included an excerpt from that writeup below. I noted that the Wolf Pack were in a good situation and that I liked that they were playing in Reno. Tonight's rematch, however, is at Thomas And Mack Center in Vegas and I fully expect that to favor the Rebels. Nevada is just 2-6-1 ATS and 1-8 SU the past nine times it was a road underdog. The Rebels, on the other hand, are 7-4 ATS (9-2 SU) as home favorites. They're also 4-1 ATS the past five times that they played with revenge. I say its "payback time" in Vegas, tonight.

Writeup on Nevada on 1/22. I expect homecourt to prove significant in this battle of instate rivals. Off a loss against SDSU, Nevada is going to be angry. The Wolfpack won last year's games by 17, at UNLV and by 19 here, at Nevada. They were favored by -16.5 points for that game. While the gap between the teams has absolutely narrowed, I don't believe its done so enough to warrant such a huge different in the pointspread. The Wolfpack are still 7-2 at home this season and that includes a 3-1 SU/ATS mark as home favorites of -6 or less. They're 6-1 SU/ATS their last seven in that role, dating back the past couple of years. During that span, the Pack are also 4-2 ATS (5-1 SU) when off a double-digit loss. Meanwhile, the Rebels are 0-3 SU/ATS when off b2b double-digit conference wins. Nevada bounces back with an important win, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on VIRGINIA. Consider that the Cavaliers were 17-point favorites when they hosted the Irish last season. Needless to say, we're getting the Cavs at a far lower line here. While the gap between the teams has narrowed, I don't think its done so enough to warrant such a massive line swing. That said, I feel that the relatively low line is providing us with excellent value. Off a loss at Louisville, Virginia is going to be hungry. The Cavs are 4-1 SU/ATS the past five times that they were off a road loss. While the Cavs lost at Louisville, the Irish won at Clemson. Thats noteworthy as they're 0-6 ATS the past six times that they were off a conference road win. With the Irish also 3-8 ATS the past 11 times that they were off a win of six or fewer points, I'm laying the points with Virginia. 

I'm playing on TCU/Texas Tech OVER the total. This is quite a low O/U line and I believe that it'll prove to be too low. The Red Raiders have seen the OVER go 9-5-2 the past 2+ seasons, when playing a game with an O/U line in the 120s. A closer look reveals that the OVER is a perfect 5-0 in Red Raider home games, when the O/U line was in the 120s. Last season's visit by the Frogs had an O/U line of 132 and produced 149 points. They already had 70 by halftime. Sure, the Raiders are off b2b "defensive" victories, both of which stayed below the total. However, keep in mind that their previous three all finished above the total, each producing a minimum of 150 points. Also, note that the OVER is 6-1 the past seven, when Texas Tech had scored 30 or fewer first half points, in b2b games. Expect those stats to improve here. 

I'm playing on UCF. The Golden Hurricane have had better results than the Knights the past few weeks overall. However, momentum is a funny thing. Tulsa saw its winning streak snapped with a loss at UConn last time out. Meanwhile, UCF checks in off a win against East Carolina. Expect that loss to take some wind from Tulsa's sails while the win will provide the Knights with some positive momentum. The home team has won four straight in this series. The Knights won by two here last season after winning by 18 here the previous year. Expect homecourt to prove the difference once again, the Knights covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on SF/BYU UNDER the total. When these teams met a couple of weeks ago, BYU led 54-40 with 16 minutes left. However, the Cougars collapsed and lost 83-82. I expect a much better defensive effort on their home floor this evening. In the last game,  San Francisco guard Khalil Shabazz came off the bench and scored 32 points (a career-high) shooting a perfect 10-for-10 from the floor that day. Thats not going to happen again. BYU's Childs said this of the earlier loss: "But I wouldn’t go back and change that loss because we’ve learned so much about the defensive end and the importance of it. Because we’re a good shooting team doesn’t mean we can go out and outshoot teams ..." The Dons scored only 48 points last game and the Cougars allowed only 54. All things considered, this number is generously high. 

I'm playing on UNLV. It wasn't long ago that the Rebels were alone in second place in the Mountain West. However, four straight losses have them in sixth. It should also have them extremely motivated for Saturday's game against Fresno State. Indeed, the Rebels need to take advantage of this winnable game. Keep in mind that the top five teams in the conference get a first-day-bye in next month's conference tournament. These teams played their conf. opener against each other. That one went to double-OT. Despite playing on the road and playing without two starting guards, the Rebels won that one. They're healthier now and playing at home. Expect a win and cover. 

I'm playing on VIRGINIA TECH. The Hokies have struggled of late. However, they know this is an opportunity to right the ship and they know that they need to take advantage. I expect them to do just that. The Hokies' current 4-game skip started with a loss at Boston College, against these same Eagles. Needless to say, they'll be itching for some payback. I expect them to put up a fairly big number today and I don't believe that the Eagles will have the offensive firepower to keep up. Note that Boston College is 4-12 SU when the opposing team scores 60 or more and 0-7 SU when the opposing team scores 74 or more. Prior to the 1/25 loss, the Hokies had won five straight meetings with the Eagles, three of those by double-digits. Expect a blowout. 

I'm playing on Kent. State/NIU OVER the total. These teams faced each other on 1/25. The O/U line was 135 and they combined for 145. I expect tonight's number, which is even lower, to also prove to be too low. Consider that the three previous times that these teams met (2018 and 2019) the O/U lines were 148.5, 146 and 150. While NIU games do average just 131 points, KSU games average a much higher 145.4. On the road, that number climbs to 145.6. Last time on the road, the Golden Flashes scored 83. Including the earlier result, Kent State has seen the OVER go 6-2 when playing a game with an O/U line in the 130s. Look for those stats to improve here. 

I'm playing on LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE. This is a huge game for the Ragin’ Cajuns. Not only are they fighting to make the Sun Belt postseason but this is a team which absolutely embarrased them already this season. Coach Bob Marlin said. "We have had a good rivalry with Georgia State. They have had the upper-hand in that most of the time. This is one we need to get." While the Panthers are tough at home, they're 1-3 ATS (and SU) as road favorites. Note that LA-Lafayette, which has covered its last three overall, won 76-72 when these teams met here last season. The Cajuns, who won 81-60 last time they were on this floor, are 8-5 ATS the past couple of seasons when attempting to avenge a double-digit loss. Expect them to improve on those stats tonight. 

I'm playing on PURDUE. Admittedly, the Hawkeyes are tough this year. Beating them will require the Boilermakers' very best effort. I believe thats what we'll get tonight. Purdue, which has battled inconsistency, badly needs to string together some wins, if it wants to get to the Big Dance. Remember, this Boilermaker team has beaten Virginia by a score of 69-40. They've beaten Michigan State by a score of 71-42 and they beat Wisconsin by a score of 70-51. Indeed, when this team is good, it can be really good. The Hawkeyes are just 6-16-1 ATS the past 2+ seasons, as road underdogs, 7-20-1 ATS in road lined games overall. During that span, Purdue is 24-16 ATS (37-3 SU!) as a home favorite. Desperate for the victory, look for the "good Purdue" to show up, as homecourt proves the difference, the Boilers getting the win and cover. 

I'm playing on Ball State/Kent State OVER the total. I believe that this O/U number could easily be higher. When these teams last met, almost exactly one year ago, the O/U line was 151.5. They combined for 163. The previous two meetings both had O/U lines of 145. Those games produced 149 and 155 points. The one before that was the last meeting here at Kent State. That one had an O/U line of 147.5 and finished with 168. Indeed, these teams have a definite history of putting up some points, when facing each other. True, Ball State has been involved in some low-scoring games of late. Thats the reason we're working with such a low number. However, keep in mind that Kent State's last four games have all finished with at least 135. In fact, the Golden Flashes have seen 14 of their last 15 finish with 135 or more. The only exception was a 130-point game at WMU on 1/18. Their last 16 have all finished with at least 130. As for the Cards' recent low-scoring games, the OVER is 6-2-1 the last nine, 2-0-1 this season, when they were off b2b games where they scored 65 or less. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on TENNESSEE. While its been a tough stretch, the Vols are going to battle hard until the final buzzer under Coach Barnes. Note that the Vols are 8-1 (SU) the past nine times that they were off a double-digit loss and they're 3-1 SU/ATS their last four in that situation.  A win here would go a long way in turning their season around. I believe they're catching the Tide at the right time. Alabama is off b2b losses and its last win came by just three points. Last season's lone meeting was decided by just three points. I see this one also coming right down to the wire and am grabbing the points.

I'm playing on KANSAS. Playing with "revenge" from an earlier loss at Texas, the Longhorns may see some love from bettors here. Sure, Texas would love to avenge that loss. However, wanting to win and being able to win, are two entirely different matters. Indeed, if they couldn't beat the Jayhawks when playing at Texas, why should they be able to beat them here? Note that Texas is just 20-46 SU over the year, when attempting to avenge a home loss. That includes a 4-6 ATS (3-7 SU) mark their past 10 in that situation. Sure, Texas is off b2b victories. However, the Longhorns are 0-8 ATS this season, after winning their previous two (or more) games. The Jayhawks are off a 3-point win against Texas Tech, which wasn't enough to cover the spread. They're 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS off a non-cover but SU win. Expect them to improve on those stats in blowout fashion tonight. 

I'm playing on WISCONSIN-MILWAUKEE. I really like the Panthers' chances of winning this one outright. After a slow start, the Panthers have won five of eight. This is a critical game for them if they want to compete with the top teams in the conference this season. While the Norse have been tough, this is their third straight on the road. Northern Kentucky does allow fewer points but the Wisc-Milwaukee scores considerably more at home than NKU does on the road. The Norse average 66.1 ppg on the road, the Panthers average 77.5 ppg at home. The Panthers are 8-5 ATS the past couple of seasons as home underdogs. Expect them to give their best effort and to improve on those stats this afternoon. 

I'm playing on MONTANA. This will be the 300th time that these two instate rivals will have taken the court against each other. Needless to say, its an intense rivalry. The series has been remarkably close. Montana leads 151-148. Thats thanks to a sweep last year and 17 wins in the 18 meetings. Indeed, the Grizzlies have dominated in recent seasons. I expect them to have the edge again this evening. Former Montana State player Danny Sprinkle is coaching in the rivalry for the first time. He's done a pretty good job thus far, given what he has to work with, but I expect this game to prove to be a reality check. Sprinkle said his team would be more defensive minded this season and thats been the case. However, the Bobcats don't score enough to keep up with the Grizzlies. MSU averages 64.8 ppg in Big Sky action this season while Montana averages 74.2. The Grizzlies connect on 48.1 fg percentage, top in the conference. The Bobcats are 10th at 41%. Playing at home, expect the Grizzlies to be able to dictate the tempo and ultimately for the Bobcats to be unable to keep up. 

I'm playing on Louisville/NC State OVER the total. While they're also stingy defensively, the Cardinals are dangerous offensively. They scored 86 points last game and 80 in the game before that. On the season, they average more than 75. The Wolf Pack know that they're going to need to put up a fairly big number if they want to keep up. Note that four of Louisville's last five games have finished above the total. Yet, because NC State has been on an 'under' streak, we're still working with a reasonably low O/U line. Note that last season's lone game had an O/U line of 155 and finished with 161. In fact, the last three meetings have all had O/U lines in the 150s. Obviously, we're working with a much lower number here, providing plenty of line value. Look for the final score to prove higher than most will be expecting. 

I'm playing on Wright State/Wisc. Milwaukee UNDER the total. This is a very high O/U number and I believe that it'll prove to be too high. When these teams met at Wright State at the end of December, the O/U line was 146. That game snuck over the total with 152. However, the last meeting here at Milwaukee produced only 127 points, staying below the total of 137. In fact, before the 12/30 game, the previous 28 meetings between these teams ALL had O/U lines of less than 140. Needless to say, we're working with a much higher total here, providing excellent line value and plenty of room to work with. With Wright State off a big win over Northern Kentucky, note that the UNDER is 5-1 the past six times that the Raiders were off a win of 20 or more points. The UNDER is also 5-0 the last five times that the Panthers hosted a team with a winning road record. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting, the final combined score staying beneath the generously high total. 

I'm playing on SIU - EDWARDSVILLE. This may not be the most exciting matchup on the Thursday card but that doesn't mean that it doesn't offer us value. The Governors have been on quite a roll and it should be easy for them to start patting themselves on the back. I believe the line has become inflated. Sure, the Cougars have lost nine straight in this series. However, those losses came by an average of 10 points, not 17. This is an experienced team led by its seniors. No team has beaten the Cougars by more than eight points since before Christmas. The Cougars are 12-7 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off a home loss. During that span, the Governors are 3-6 ATS when off two or more consecutive home wins. Look for this one to be a lot more competitive than many will be expecting.