7 Unit Play. Take #426 Under 51 in Toronto Argonauts vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers (6p.m., Sunday, November 17 CBSSN) The Argonauts might have won the battle last week in the CFL semis against Montreal, but their chances of winning the war took a major hit when QB Chad Kelly suffered a gruesome broken leg in the game. Toronto's offense isn't the same without Kelly and to make matters worse, Winnipeg has the best defense in the CFL in ppg allowed (20.3 ppg), passing yards per game (225.5 ypg), and total yards per game (329.7). Look for Toronto to heavily lean on the CFL's 2nd-best rushing attack, lead by Ka'Deem Carey, to get the offense jump started. Winnipeg's top receiver, Nic Demski (76 catches, 1030 yards and 6 TDs) is questionable with an ankle injury. Even if he plays, that could limit his effectiveness. Winnipeg's rushing attack is 4th in the league, at 104.2 ypg. However, the Args defense is tough against the rush, giving up just 85.1 ypg (2nd in the CFL). The two previous meetings between these two teams produced a total of 55 points. We think there will be more scoring that that, but the under is 14-5 in Winnipeg’s last 19 games. We cap off the season with a nice win in a lower-scoring Grey Cup.

8 Unit Play. Take 221 Toronto Argonauts +2 over Montreal Alouettes (3p.m., Saturday, November 9 CFL+) CFL Playoff Game of the Year This game marks the third consecutive season that these two teams have met in the Eastern Divisional Finals. Montreal reminds me a little bit of the Philadelphia Eagles last season. The Alouettes jumped out to a 5-0 record and eventually ran that up to a sterling 10-1 mark. However, it seems that the offense left after Labor Day, and the team limped home the last 6 weeks with a 2-4-1 record. It's not often you see a football team with the best record in their league with the lowest total yards in offense, but that is exactly where Montreal's offense (335.8 ypg) resides. The Als' QB, Cody Fajardo, season has taken a similar path as the team he leads. In the last six games of the regular season, Fajardo threw for 1,133 yards with 6 TDs and 2 INTs. Toronto comes into the Division Championship game on the opposite side of the spectrum, as they are 4-1 over their last 5 games, including last week's 58-38 drubbing of Ottawa in the opening rounds of the playoffs. They are led by the reigning CFL Player of the Year, QB Chad Kelly. The only quarterback hotter than Kelly since Labor Day was Bo Levi Mitchell. The Args' gunslinger racked up 2,165 yards with 13 TDs and 6 INTs in his last six games, including Toronto's playoff win. What will make Kelly's passing so much more effective is Toronto's ability to run against Montreal. The Alouettes have the 3rd-worst rush defense in the league, giving up 115.9 ypg on the ground. Montreal's rush defense allowed 173.3 ypg to the Args ground game in the three meetings this season between these division rivals. If Toronto can establish a powerful ground game, Kelly's play-action passes become more effective and lethal. Toronto is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games against the Alouettes and 4-1 SU in the last 5 visits to Montreal. Kelly had a horrific game last year in the playoffs, where he threw 4 picks en route to a 38-17 loss to Montreal. He exorcised one demon last week with his performance and will complete his personal redemption tour on Saturday with a Toronto victory. 

7 Unit Play. Take 422 Toronto vs. Ottawa OVER 51.5 (3p.m., Saturday, November 2 CFL+) These two division foes played a couple of weeks ago, with Toronto jumping out to a big lead and then holding on for dear life. In the last 5 meetings between the Args and Redblacks, the final score has averaged 35-30 in favor of Toronto and the over is 7-3 in the last ten meetings between them, with a current run of six straight cashes. Argonauts bad boy QB Chad Kelly has averaged 306 passing yards a game since his return from suspension and after wiping off the rust, has cut down on his interceptions, throwing just two picks in the last 5 games he's played against 6 TDs. Both defenses have trouble stopping the pass and Ottawa actually has the second-best passing offense in the league. This game promises to be a shootout and we intend to cash. Take the OVER and good luck!!!

3 Unit Play. Take 774 Toronto -3.5 over Ottawa (Sat., Oct. 19th, 3:00 p.m. CFL+) After having an off-game last week going against Winnipeg's leading pass and scoring defense (and leading his team to a 14-11 victory), Argonauts QB Chad Kelly looks to light up a Redblacks defense he's already torched for 463 yards and 3 TDs (with 4 INTs) in a 41-27 defeat on Sept. 7th. Since that setback, Toronto is 3-1 SU/3-1ATS. Ottawa is in the midst of a 1-5 SU/ATS stretch and welcome back QB Dru Brown who missed the last two weeks with an ankle injury, along with his main aerial target, WR Justin Hardy. This is an important game for the Args as a win will clinch the East Division and home field for the opening round of the CFL playoffs. After scraping of the rust in the game against Ottawa in which he threw 3 picks and was sacked 6 times, Kelly has settled down. He's completed 65.4% of his passes over his last 4 games, throwing for 1,013 yards and 3 TDs to only 2 INTs (after throwing 6 interceptions in his first 3 games back from suspension). Kelly also has 189 yards on 38 carries (5.0 ypc) and 4 rushing TDs. In the loss to the Redblacks, however, not only was he sacked 6 times but he only scrambled twice for 6 yards. With Ottawa's ferocious pass rush (2nd in the CFL with 37 sacks, right behind the league-leading Argonauts with 44), Kelly needs to make use of his mobility to threaten Ottawa's flanks. Ottawa's weak run game (86.4 ypc) will make it easier for Toronto to use that rentless pass rush to disrupt the Redblack's passing attack. In the last 6 games played between these two division rivals, Toronto has gone 5-1SU/ATS. In addition, when the Args are favored and playing the Redblacks in Toronto, the Argonauts are 13-1 SU and 10-4 ATS. Chad Kelly continues his redemption tour and slowly starts to wipe away the first half of the season that he missed.

3 Unit Play. Take 774 Under in Calgary @ BC (10p.m., Friday, October 4 CFL+) In this matchup, Calgary has the lowest-scoring offense (23.6 ppg) and second-fewest total yards gained in the CFL. BC's star QB, Vernon Adams, Jr., injured his knee back in August, and even though the Lions front office said the injury was not long-term, replacement QB Nathan Rourke remains the signal caller, and he has been very effective. In his six starts, BC is 2-4, averaging 26.5 ppg. Rourke has completed 62.3% of his passes for 1,363 yards, 4 TDs and 7 INTs. Calgary's Jake Maier has been solid, except for his penchant for throwing picks. In his 14 games, he's thrown 18 TDs to 12 INTs, the second-worst Interception percentage (2.8%) in the league. These two teams have met twice this season and have gone under the total. The weather forecast looks windy all game, with a chance of rain coming in the second half. Take the UNDER and good luck!