This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Super Bowl Winner. While it is hard to go against the dynamic Kansas City offense, the 49ers possess a defense that can slow it down while also posing problems with its own offense against the Chiefs defense. Defensively, the 49ers are powered by a star-studded line that features five former first-round picks in the rotation and the pass rush has made the secondary even better. San Francisco allowed the fewest passing yards (2,707) and defensed the 10th-most passes (74). They only intercepted 12 passes, admittedly an improvement over picking off two in 2018, but San Francisco allowed the fewest completions exceeding 20 yards in the NFL this season, according to Pro Football Focus. On the other side, San Francisco had the second-best rushing offense in the NFL in 2019 at 144.6 ypg while it finished tied for second in the NFL with 16 runs of 20-plus yards. Against the Chiefs, San Francisco needs to continue to pound the ball given the Chiefs struggles against the run, particularly against runs preceded by shifts or motions, when Kansas city has allowed 5.2 ypc. Although Jimmy Garoppolo hasn't been asked to throw it much in the playoffs, he put together a highlight reel of pinpoint passes during the regular season with games hanging in the balance. On deep balls, according to Next Gen Stats, Garoppolo actually led the NFL in completion percentage (58.1) and yards per attempt (20.3), while also totaling seven passing touchdowns and posting a 102.6 passer rating on such throws. 10* (101) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFC Championship Winner. San Francisco is an overpriced favorite here as it is now favored by more points than it was against Minnesota which ended the regular season three games worse than the Packers. Green Bay is a sneaky live dog here as they are getting no credit. Matt LaFleur came in and tinkered with the offense, and they brought in key additions such as pass-rushing duo Preston Smith and Za'Darius Smith, who combined for 25.5 sacks on the season. Many will point to the first meeting where San Francisco dominated in a 37-8 win but that is a thing of the past. Aaron Rodgers had the worst day of his career, averaging 3.2 yards per attempt and getting sacked five times so do not think there is not a chip on his shoulder. The Packers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games against teams with a winning record while the 49ers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a straight up win of more than 14 points. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after two consecutive covers as a favorite going up against opponent off a home win. This situation is 36-13 ATS (73.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (311) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Sunday Star Attraction. We were hoping to get some earlier injury news and while there is positive news, it is not official. Seattle left tackle Duane Brown, who has missed the past three games with a knee injury, is hoping to get back. Brown was able to practice on a limited basis on Friday, his first practice action since having surgery and will be a game-day decision, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll said. The offensive line is the weakness for the Seahawks so this could be a big upgrade. Green Bay is very overrated. The Packers did have a pair of solid wins over Minnesota but they were outgained in one of those and the Vikings were not healthy in the second one and the win over Kansas City was against Matt Moore and not Patrick Mahomes. This is the smallest of the spreads in the Divisional round yet it is arguably too high. This is a spot Russell Wilson has excelled in as he is 10-4 ATS as an underdog of three or more points, while going 6-2 ATS when the line is four or more points. The Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games against teams with a winning road record. Here, we play against home teams with a winning percentage of .750 or better off a road win against a division rival, playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. This situation is 26-8 ATS (76.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (307) Seattle Seahawks

This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Saturday Star Attraction. The Vikings showed they can go on the road and win a big game and if there was any pressure on Kirk Cousins, he did not show it and any hint of that theory is long gone. While the 49ers defense is thought to be the better defense when compared to the Saints, they are actually in a worse position based on this matchup and the strengths of the Vikings offense. Minnesota has a healthy Dalvin Cook, Adam Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs for the first time in a long time and that is a dangerous trio. On the other side, the main focus for the 49ers against the Vikings should be protecting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo against one of the best front sevens in the NFL. Coming into last week, Saints starting offensive tackles Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk had not given up a sack all season but they gave up three Sunday. Quarterbacks making their first playoff start are 16-34 straight up and 15-34-1 ATS since 2002 and while that 30.6 percent record may seem skewed based on the fact that first-time starters are more likely to be on the road, home favorites in this scenario are just 5-16 ATS (23.8 percent). Here, we play against home teams with a winning percentage of .750 or better off a road win against a division rival, playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. This situation is 26-7 ATS (78.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (301) Minnesota Vikings

This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Sunday Star Attraction. Seattle was inches away from winning the NFC West but lost in the final seconds to the 49ers and were handed the No. 5 seed. While the Seahawks have to travel, that is not a bad thing for this team as they finished 7-1 on the road and get to face a banged up Eagles team that is lucky to be here. Seattle is banged up in its own right but is not as depleted as the Eagles are. Russell Wilson is healthy, and he threw for 4,110 yards and 31 touchdowns this season with just five interceptions. he finished sixth in the NFL in passing yards despite attempting just 516 passes, which ranked 12th. Travel is certainly no issue for him. Since the beginning of the 2018 season, Wilson is 7-0 in the Eastern time zone, with a 72.2 completion percentage, a 15-1 intercept touchdown ratio and a 128.0 pin rating. Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer said more of the playbook should be available to Marshawn Lynch on Sunday now that he has another week of work under his belt. Carson Wentz guided the Eagles to four straight wins to close out the season, albeit all against the moribund NFC East. Now facing a team with a pulse, Philadelphia will have its hands full despite playing at home. He has limited targets at receiver and tight end Zach Ertz is still listed as questionable. Making matters worse, starting right tackle Lane Johnson will not play. Here, we play on road favorites averaging 335 or more total ypg, after allowing 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 44-20 ATS (68.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (147) Seattle Seahawks

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Saturday Star Attraction. The first Wild Card game of the playoffs takes place in Houston as the Bills hit the road in the postseason for the second time in three years. Buffalo leaned on their defense to reach 10 wins this season. The Bills defense finished second in points allowed (16.2), fourth in passing yards allowed (195.2), 10th in rushing yards allowed (103.1) and third in total yards allowed (298.2) this season. They were one of only three teams that held opposing quarterbacks to under an 80.0 QB rating (To put that in perspective opposing quarterbacks had a 95.3 rating against the Texans this year). The Texans are an offense-first squad which explodes at unpredictable times. It did not happen enough in the second half of the season, and it usually happens when Will Fuller is on the field but he has been downgraded to doubtful. Houston averages over 25 ppg when Fuller plays and less than 20 when he is missing so he is a big factor in this offense. J.J. Watt will be back on Saturday but the Texans defense has major issues lately even though Watt will be back. Look for Buffalo to try and pound the ball as Devin Singletary had 775 yards, two touchdowns, on 151 carries, which is an average of 5.1 ypc, fifth-best in the NFL. Get the running game going and Josh Allen should be able to take some shots against this Texans secondary. Here, we play against home favorites that are averaging 4.5 ypc going up against teams allowing between 3.5 and 4.5ypc, after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game. This situation is 54-20 ATS (73 percent) since 1983. 10* (141) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the NEW YORK GIANTS for our NFL Sunday Star Attraction. This is another instance of going against a team that needs to win and one simple belief for that is if a team needs to win in Week 17 to get into the playoffs, it cannot be that good of a team to begin with. That is certainly the case for the Eagles which are coming off a must win game against the Cowboys. We are not here saying the Eagles cannot or will not win this game but this line is simply too high. The Giants have won two straight games, albeit against Miami and Washington and they would like nothing more than to finish with three straight wins and knock their rival from the playoffs. Daniel Jones is coming off the best game of his rookie season where he threw for 352 yards and five touchdowns. He has another good matchup here and while the Eagles help Dak Prescott in check last week, clearly he was not close to 100 percent. Additionally, Saquon Barkley is back as he has two straight 100-yard games, including a career-best 189 yards rushing last week. He finished with a franchise-record 279 yards from scrimmage. Here, we play against teams with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 off an upset win as a home underdog, playing a losing team in the second half of the season. This situation is 24-3 ATS (88.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (116) New York Giants

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our AFC West Game of the Year. Oakland still has an outside shot at a playoff berth as it needs a win here plus losses by Pittsburgh and Tennessee, a win by Indianapolis and a win or tie from either Chicago, Detroit, Los Angeles Chargers or New England. The scenario for the final four teams would give the Raiders the strength of schedule tiebreaker over Pittsburgh. That being said, this is a very inconsistent team and one that should not be trusted on the road. The Raiders are 2-5 away from home and their -105 scoring differential of fifth worst in the NFL. Denver has played well of late by winning three of its last four games has played very well in those wins. The game against Kansas City can be tossed out since it was being played in a snowstorm. Oakland has some horrible history heading into this game. The Raiders are 0-12 ATS in their last 12 games as divisional underdogs coming off a SU/ATS Win, 0-18 ATS in their last 18 games following a win in which they had less than 400 yards of offense and did not commit a single turnover and 0-11 ATS in their last 11 road games following a win. This includes losses this season at the Packers 42-24 and at the Jets 34-2. 10* (132) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Monday Primetime Punisher. Even though we are 14 games into the season, it is hard to get a grasp on the Packers and how good their 11-3 record really is. They've been outscored in the second and fourth quarters, only four of their 11 wins have come by more than one score and their team rankings in rushing and passing yardage on both offense and defense are all in the bottom half of the league. Green Bay has been outgained in five of its last six and seven of its last 10 games and just two of the 11 wins are against teams in current playoff positions. The Vikings have won eight of their last 10 games after an uneven 2-2 start to the season. There is a lot on the line for Minnesota as well even though it clinched a playoff berth with the Rams loss on Saturday. The only way Minnesota can win the NFC North is if the sputtering Lions beat the Packers in addition to Vikings victories in their last two games. They host Chicago on Dec. 29, with the chance to go 8-0 at home for the first time in 10 years. It is well documented that Kirk Cousins is 0-8 on Monday Night Football but he is not solely to blame. He has completed 191 of 292 passes (65.4 percent) for 2,153 yards with 11 touchdowns and five interceptions, and his passer rating is 92.7 in those games. Here, we play against road underdogs or pickems after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games. This situation is 40-16 ATS (71.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (482) Minnesota Vikings

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Sunday Star Attraction. We won with Dallas last week as a home underdog and now it comes into this week as a road favorite which is a complete overreaction to the win last week. Couple that with the Eagles needing a late comeback to defeat to the Redskins and the public will be all over the Cowboys this week.0020Dallas is top ten in scoring offense, total offense, scoring defense and total defense yet it is just 7-7 on the season. The Cowboys can win the NFC East with a win no matter what happens next week but a playoff berth is still in play for the Eagles. Beat the Cowboys and win in Week 17 against the Giants, and they're in so clearly there is a lot at stake for both sides. Carson Wentz is playing one of the true must-win games of his career. He tossed a two-yard touchdown pass to Zach Ertz in overtime to beat the Giants and followed up on the road with a touchdown pass to Greg Ward to beat the Redskins. He is down his top three receivers so expect big games from Ertz and Ward as the Cowboys struggle to defend the middle of the field. Here, we play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 off an upset win by 14 or more points as a home underdog, after the first month of the season. This situation is 29-7 ATS (80.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (476) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The Colts put up a dud for us on Monday night as the Saints used the Drew Brees record setting night as a means for motivation. Now there is nothing to play for as a rash of injuries, a flurry of costly special teams mistakes, and back-to-back sub-par defensive performances led to a fourth consecutive loss at New Orleans, sealing their playoff fate. They've been outscored 31-7 in the fourth quarter of the last three games to go along with no running game. The Panthers have given up on the Kyle Allen experiment that actually started out good but has failed miserably of late. They have lost six straight games but four of those losses came by just one possession and there is no wat the Colts should be laying this number with nothing on the line especially facing Christian McCaffrey. He needs 186 yards receiving over the final two games to become the third player to have 1,000 yards both rushing and receiving so he will be a heavy part of the passing game with new starter Will Grier. Here, we play against home favorites with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 off a road loss, playing a team with a winning percentage between .250 and .400. This situation is 49-18 ATS (73.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (471) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Saturday Primetime Punisher. The Rams are coming off a loss last week in Dallas which severely hurt their playoff chances. They have to win out in their final two games, here and then next week at home against the Cardinals. Additionally, Los Angeles needs Minnesota to love this Monday and then next week at home against the Bears. All scenarios are more than possible so it is up to the Rams to do its job. The Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight up loss. San Francisco is coming off a bad loss against Atlanta last Sunday and while it can still lock down the No. seed in the NFC, it can also fall to the No. 5 seed which is where it currently sits. The 49ers are just 3-2 against the top 10 in the league while playing the No. 17 ranked schedule. While these teams are separated by three games, San Francisco seems pretty overpriced here and this is just the second time the Rams have been road underdogs and by far by the biggest amount. The 49ers are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite. Here, we play on underdogs or pickems with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 off an upset loss as a road favorite, in the second half of the season. This situation is 29-8 ATS (78.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (451) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Saturday Afternoon Dominator. This is a game where you have to trust the eye test and not the history lesson. New England is making its 11th straight playoff appearance but this could be the worst of the bunch despite an 11-3 record. The defense is great but the offense has struggled as Tom Brady looks slow and inaccurate and he has no weapons to throw to. Facing one of the best defenses in the league will be a challenge and the Patriots struggled in the first meeting as they won by six points but mustered a mere 224 yards of total offense and the difference was a blocked punt returned for a touchdown. Playing at home with a chance to win the division in tough to go against but the Patriots are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning record. Buffalo will not be intimidated here just like last week when they were not against the Steelers. They held Pittsburgh to 229 total yards and the site of Brady is not going to scare them off. The offense has certainly been inconsistent but Josh Allen has the ability to confuse the Patriots with his mobility. The Bills are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight road games. Here, we play on underdogs or pickems after covering the spread in three out of their last four games, in the last two weeks of the regular season. This situation is 38-14 ATS (73.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* (453) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Monday Primetime Punisher. The money and the public is on the Saints here which comes as no surprise and that has driven this line up to double-digits in some places. The Saints are coming off a tough loss against the 49ers last Sunday but have still clinched the division but they can win out and still get the third seed if they don't receive some extra help. The New Orleans defense has regressed and that is not ideal when laying a number this big as the Saints enter this game ranked 13th in total defense, surrendering 338 ypg and 17th in points allowed at 22.8 ppg. New Orleans is 7-17 ATS in its last 24 home games as favorites coming off a home loss including 0-7 ATS when laying more than a touchdown. Indianapolis needs to win out and get some help for the postseason as it is a game and a half out of the final Wild Card spot in the AFC. The Colts are 2-4 on the road but three of those losses came by a combined eight points and the other came in overtime. Indianapolis is 9-0 ATS in its last nine games against NFC teams .500 or better. Here, we play on road underdogs or pickems off a road loss by three points or less, in the last four weeks of the regular season. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (333) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our NFL Game of the Year. The advanced line for this game was Dallas -3.5 which was released on Tuesday but after the Dallas loss on Thursday, the number came down to -3 and then after the Rams blowout winner over Seattle on Sunday night, the line came down once again and this is the time to buy. The Cowboys have lost three straight games to fall to 6-7 and this is a must win game with their following contest taking place at Philadelphia which will most likely decide the NFC East. In the loss against the Bears, Dallas still won the yardage battle for the ninth straight game. Dallas is 19-8 ATS in its last 27 home games after having lost three out of their last four games. The Rams are coming off the impressive win over Seattle to remain in the Wild Card hunt. They are one game behind the Vikings for the second Wild Card spot and the Rams are going to have to get some help from the Vikings. While the offense has looked good the last two games, quarterback Jared Goff is having a mediocre season, posting 3712 passing yards with a 15:14 TD to INT ratio. The Rams are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog. The game will be a rematch of the NFC Divisional round matchup from last season, when Dallas traveled to Los Angeles and got their pride handed to them. Head coach Sean McVay used a combination of Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson to rush for over 250 yards on the Dallas defense and the Cowboys were outgained 459-308 making revenge a big factor. Here, we play on home favorites after having lost four or five out of their last six games, with a winning percentage between .450 and .550 on the season. This situation is 24-6 ATS (80 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (330) Dallas Cowboys

This is a play on the OAKLAND RAIDERS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. After three straight losses, the Raiders are nearly eliminated from playoff contention so one could argue there is little motivation on the Oakland sideline. That could be the furthest from the truth. This is the final game being played in Oakland as it will be calling Las Vegas home starting next season so there will be plenty of motivation to pull out one final victory for the home crowd. It was a rough second half last week for the Raiders but they are in a great bounce back spot here facing a team that has mailed it in. The Raiders are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss. Jacksonville has lost five straight games and none have been close as those losses have all come by at least 17 points and by an average of 23.4 ppg. The Jaguars are officially out of the playoff mix and are ready for the season to end. The Jaguars are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Here, we play on favorites after failing to cover the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games, after the first month of the season. This situation is 105-67 ATS (61 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (324) Oakland Raiders

This is a play on the NEW YORK GIANTS for our NFL Monday Primetime Punisher. The Giants have lost eight in a row but could spoil Philadelphia's playoff hopes with a victory. Eli Manning is expected to make his first start since Week 2 because rookie Daniel Jones has a high ankle sprain. Manning struggled in his first two starts but there was a lot of pressure on him to keep his job and now with that pressure being lifted, he should be able to go out and just play. The Giants are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog. Despite their poor record, the Eagles would win the NFC East by winning their last four games. But when you lose 7 of 12, three in a row, and at the woeful Dolphins, nothing is guaranteed. The Eagles have not shown the ability to put a team away aside from their life-draining drive against the Bears in Week Nine, their win over the Bills in Week Eight and the rout of the Jets in Week Five. The Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games against teams with a losing road record. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 30 points or more last game going up against an opponent after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 49-20 ATS (71 percent) since 1983. 10* (159) New York Giants

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Game of the Week. We bet against Baltimore again last week as it finally paid off as the Ravens snuck by a quality opponent. While some may not think it, Buffalo is another quality opponent as its 9-3 record indicates. The line is inflated once again as the book want to avoid liability after getting crushed for five straight games. The San Francisco defense did a great job on the Ravens offense, holding them to a season low 20 points. The Bills defense is built similarly to the 49ers and it is a legit unit. On the other side, Josh Allen has been sensational since the Patriots game with just the one hiccup against Cleveland. Buffalo gained the early action causing the line to go from -6 to -5 on Sunday. When Monday hit, the action switched and the Ravens were getting hit hard moving the line to 5.5 and the action has remained on the Baltimore side yet the line has increased to -6 as of Friday night. Here, we plat on home teams off an upset win as an underdog, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages of .750 or better. This situation is 29-8 ATS (78.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (132) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The Colts burned us last week as they were ready to take the lead against Tennessee but had their field goal blocked and returned for a touchdown and then another turned sealed the game. The Colts outgained the Titans by 99 total yards and have won the yardage battle in five of their last six games despite going 2-4. The Colts are in must win mode and are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit loss at home. The Buccaneers are on a two-game winning streak but are just 1-3 at home with the lone won coming by a field goal against Arizona. They were favored by 5.5 points in that game and are now 0-4 ATS at home not including the London game where they were the designated home team and lost by 11 points. At 5-7, Tampa Bay is out of the playoff mix yet is favored again. Here, we play against home favorites after having won two out of their last three games, with a winning percentage of between .400 and .499 in the second half of the season. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (147) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Punisher. Dallas has lost two straight games and is 3-5 0ver its last eight games but there has been one common denominator and that is the Cowboys have outgained all eight opponents in those games. The problem is not on the offense as they have the top ranked offense in the NFL with 432.8 ypg and the defense has not been bad either as they are ranked No. 8 overall with 321.6 ypg. But on that side of the ball, they have just 12 takeaways which is tied for fourth fewest in the NFL and the eight teams they are grouped with that have 14 or fewer takeaways, seven have no chance for the playoffs. A lot of this is luck and can turn around quickly as we are backing a team that is one of only two ranked in the top eight in both offense and defense, San Francisco being the other and the 49ers are 10-2. Chicago was fortunate to get out of Detroit with a win on Thanksgiving as it had its best game on offense on the season with 419 yards yet won by just four points. Mitchell Trubisky had his best game of the season but that was against the third worst passing defense in the NFL and we do not expect a big effort Thursday. Here, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 with a defense forcing one or fewer tpg, after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse. This situation is 49-20 ATS (71 percent) since 1983. 10* (101) Dallas Cowboys

This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Monday Primetime Punisher. Seattle has won four straight games including three on the road where it is a perfect 6-0 on the season. The Seahawks are just 3-2 at home with those three wins being an overtime win over Tampa Bay, a one-point win over the Rams and a one-point win over the Bengals. They are outgaining opponents by just 17 ypg at home and going back, the Seahawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. Minnesota has won two straight games and is coming off its bye week which is a big edge this late in the season. The Vikings are a half-game behind Green Bay in the NFC North and they hold onto a game and a half lead over the Rams for the final Wild Card slot in the NFC and can take over the first spot with a win tonight. Here, we play on road teams after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games, in December games. This situation is 42-15 ATS (73.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (475) Minnesota Vikings

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Game of the Week. Indianapolis and Tennessee are both squarely in the playoff mix as both come in at 6-5, one game behind Houston in the NFC South and with the Texans playing the Patriots, the winner of this game could be in a first place tie. Tennessee is coming off a pair of impressive wins as it defeated Kansas City and then Jacksonville in a blowout but both were at home. Tennessee is just 1-3 in its last four road games yet is getting just one point as of Saturday. The Colts stumbled in Houston for their third loss in four games but against the Texans, it broke a streak of outgaining their opponents in four straight games. Here, we play on favorites in the second half of the season averaging between 335 and 370 ypg going up against teams averaging between 295 and 335 ypg, after being outgained by 100 or more total yards last game. This situation is 23-5 ATS (82.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (458) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. Baltimore is coming off another impressive win last week against the Rans but it came with a cost and now the Ravens are playing on short rest. Center Matt Skura got hurt on Monday night and now the Ravens weak at left guard and center and San Francisco can take advantage of this. Baltimore has now won seven straight games, the last five coming by double-digits so it is no surprise the public is loving the Ravens yet the line has actually come down. San Francisco is coming off a pair of impressive wins as it defeated Arizona and Green Bay, outgaining them by 176 yards and 141 yards respectively. The 49ers are 10-1 but are not getting the deserved respect because of the dominant Baltimore run. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are averaging 27 or more ppg, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation 27-7 ATS (79.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (455) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Punisher. New Orleans and Atlanta meet on Thanksgiving night for the second straight season with the Saints looking to wrap up the NFC South division. They have a four-game lead over Carolina following their win over the Panthers this past Sunday. New Orleans has won two straight games to improve to 9-2 on the season and it had a six-game winning streak snapped three games back at home against Atlanta. Revenge will be in play here against an inconsistent Atlanta team which pulled off stunning back-to-back road wins only to fall flat at home last week against the Buccaneers. The Falcons have lost four straight home games and while they have the edge in not having to travel following a home game, the defense will struggle here. The Saints are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 road games while Atlanta is 0-7 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. Additionally, the Falcons are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing six or more yppl in their previous game. Here, we play on road teams in the second half of the season averaging 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game going up against teams with forcing 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game, after four consecutive games where they committed one or less turnovers. This situation is 30-10 ATS (75 percent) since 1983. 10* (309) New Orleans Saints

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for out NFL Thursday Afternoon Dominator. The Bears are coming off a home win over the lowly Giants by it was by just by five points. Since a 3-1 start to the season, Chicago is only 2-5 in its last seven games including a 0-3 record on the road. Three games back, they defeated Detroit by a touchdown for its third straight win in this series so the Lions will be out for payback. This offense remains incredibly inconsistent as they are ranked No. 29, averaging a mere 269.3 ypg and 17.1 ppg. Chicago has outgained only four of 11 opponents while on the other side, Detroit has outgained six of its 11 opponents. This includes outgaining the Redskins by 134 total yards this past Sunday but lost late. Quarterback Jeff Driskel has not been great but he is no worse than Mitchell Trubisky yet the Lions come in as the road underdog here. The defense has struggled overall but their worst games have come against premier offenses as they have gone against the top ten units. Detroit held Chicago to 226 yard offense in the first meeting. The Bears are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Here, we play on home teams revenging a road loss against opponent, off an upset loss as a road favorite. This situation is 86-43 ATS (66.7 percent) since 1983. 9* (306) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Monday Primetime Punisher. Everyone is in love with Baltimore right now and rightfully so. The Ravens opened the season by hanging 59 points on the Dolphins, and have also enjoyed 49, 40, and 37 point outbursts. The Ravens defense has also enjoyed some success this season as they have allowed the 6th fewest points in the league and are 14th in yardage allowed. This is a bad matchup though. The Rams defense is stout and ranks 10th overall. They have given up 10 or fewer points three of the past four weeks. Offensively, the Rams need some work. In 10 games this season, they totaled only 243 ppg and 24 offensive touchdowns. Los Angeles has coughed up the ball 18 times,15 times by Jared Goff in the form of 10 interceptions and five lost fumbles. And a ground attack that finished with the third-most yards in the league a year ago ranks 20th in the NFL. Still, only five quarterbacks have thrown for more yards than Goff (2,783) so he will give the Ravens a big test. Here, we play against road favorites that are outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg, after a win by 10 or more points. This situation is 53-18 ATS (74..6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (276) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The Patriots are a M*A*S*H unit right now on offense as the three top receiving targets Mohamed Sanu, Julian Edelman and Philip Dorsett are all questionable and even Tom Brady popped up on the injury report with an elbow issue. New England has gained 342 yards or less in its last four games while playing the second easiest schedule in the NFL. We all know New England has won 20 straight home games but being favored by this much against one of the best rosters in the league is too much. The Cowboys have underachieved this season as they are just 3-4 over their last seven games. Despite this, they have outgained their opponents by 133.0 ypg over their last six games. Here, we lay against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage of .750 or better after having won six or seven out of their last eight games, , in the second half of the season. This situation is 29-10 ATS (74.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (269) Dallas Cowboys

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Game of the Week. Despite a 7-3 record, Buffalo is No. 23 in the latest power rankings as it has played the easiest schedule in the NFL. After outgaining their opponents in their first five games, Buffalo has outgained only two of their last five opponents. The Bills wins have come against the Jets, Giants, Bengals, Titans, Redskins and Dolphins twice. We can throw Denver into this mix as it is just 3-7 but the Broncos are the best losing team in the NFL. Five of the seven losses have been by just one possession which includes four coming within the final minute. Denver is just -25 points in scoring differential while outgaining half of its opponents and not being outgained by more than 84 yards in any game. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after covering the spread in three out of their last four games, team with a losing record in the second half of the season. This situation is 37-12 ATS (75.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (253) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Punisher. We played on Houston last week and got totally destroyed as the Texans lost 41-7 and coupled with the Indianapolis blowout of Jacksonville, they are now tied for first place in the AFC South so this game will go a long way in determining the champion. The running game will be key here. Houston held Indianapolis to just 62 rushing yards in the first meeting, by far the Colts worst showing of the season. The loss of Marlon Mack, who broke his hand against Jacksonville, makes it harder to get the ground game going. On the other side, a Colts run defense that ranks ninth in the NFL will be tested as Houston has rushed for more than 100 yards in six straight games. The Texans are in revenge mode from the 30-23 loss in the first meeting as well as the 21-7 at home in the playoffs last season. Here, we play on home favorites revenging a loss by seven points or less, off a road loss. This situation is 41-13 ATS (75.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (110) Houston Texans

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Monday Primetime Punisher. Mexico City hosts a big AFC West divisional game as what once looked like a runaway win for the Chiefs has suddenly become a packed race. Kansas City won its first four games but has dropped four of its past six, allowing Oakland to get within a half-game of the division lead with the Chargers sitting just two games back. The absence of quarterback Patrick Mahomes led to a lot of the struggles for the Chiefs but he claimed this week he feels as healthy as he has been since Week One. He had a monster game last week in his return but the Chiefs lost at Tennessee despite outgaining the Titans by 159 total yards as a fumble return for the touchdown was the ultimate difference. The Chargers fell to 4-6 after a loss to the Raiders and that was the sixth loss by one possession. That would entice a play on the Chargers as those numbers point to a close game However, while the Chargers were among the league's better teams in not committing turnovers the past two seasons, their 16 giveaways this season are tied for seventh in the league. And that adds to a great situation as we play on teams after three consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers going up against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse. This situation is 46-18 ATS (71.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (475) Kansas City Chiefs

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Punisher. The Rams have been catching a lot of heat for their 5-4 record after going 13-3 last season and making it to the Super Bowl. They have been one of the unluckiest teams in the NFL however as they have 16 giveaways to just 14 takeaways compared to a +11 turnover margin last season. Los Angeles has outgained eight of nine opponents this season which shows they are playing better than their record shows. The fell short at Pittsburgh last week 17-12 and they are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Chicago is in the same situation as they already have one more loss than all of last season but its 4-5 record is s true indication of how it has played. The Bears have been outgained in six of nine games thanks to an anemic offense that is fourth worst in the NFL with 262.2 ypg. Additionally, they are allowing close to 30 more ypg than in 2018. The Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Here, we play on home favorites with a winning percentage between .450 and .550 after having lost four or five out of their last six games. This situation is 23-5 (82.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (474) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Underdog Game of the Month. Baltimore remains the talk of the NFL, namely Lamar Jackson, and because of all of the positive pub, the lines are remaining inflated. Coming off a divisional win and a winner over the Patriots prior to that, this could be the letdown finally especially with a Monday night game with the Rams on deck. Baltimore has outgained six of nine opponents, the same as Houston, so they may have overachieved slightly based on their 7-2 record that consists of wins over the Bengals twice, the Cardinals and the Dolphins. The Ravens are 5-12-2 ATS in their last 19 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points. Houston is coming off its bye week with a chance for extra preparation for Jackson. The Texans are 6-3 with all three losses coming by one possession and they were tied or had the lead going into the fourth quarter in two of those. Not much respect in this line with a strong Houston team. The Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a bye week. Here, we play against home teams with a winning percentage of .750 or better off a road win against a division rival, playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (465) Houston Texans

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Punisher. We played on Cleveland last Sunday and it resulted in a push for most and we are backing the Browns again this week in their back-to-back home spot. It was a must win then and it is a must win again this week and the Browns catch Pittsburgh coming off an upset win as a home underdog and now has to travel. With Mason Rudolph failing to exceed 200 passing yards in four of his seven starts, the Steelers will likely feature a run-heavy offensive attack. The key is whether Cleveland will be able to limit Pittsburgh on the ground on a short week. The money is coming in on the Steelers which is because of their recent success but they have played only one road game over the past seven weeks and they have been outgained in seven of nine games on the season. Here, we play against teams with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 off an upset win as a home underdog, playing a losing team in the second half of the season. This situation is 22-3 (88 percent) since 1983. 10* (310) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Monday Night Primetime Punisher. A once heated rivalry is restored with a lot on the line in the NFC West. It is hard to believe but this is the first time since Thanksgiving night in 2014 where both teams have a winning record. Seattle has won two straight games including a thrilling overtime win last week against Tampa Bay. The Seahawks rushed for 145 yards against the Buccaneers which has the top raked rushing defense in the NFL and while the San Francisco defense is highly praised, it is just No. 14 against the run while allowing 4.7 ypc which is near the bottom of the league. The Seahawks are 7-2 and going back, they are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games against teams with a winning home record. The 49ers are the lone remaining undefeated team in the NFL at 8-0 but they have played the third easiest schedule in the league. The 49ers suffered a big loss last week when linebacker Kwon Alexander went down with a season-ending torn left pectoral muscle. Additionally, standout tight end George Kittle likely will not see the field as he is listed as doubtful. Here, we play against home teams with a winning percentage of .750 or higher off a road win against a division rival, playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. This situation is 23-5 ATS (82.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (273) Seattle Seahawks

This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our Sunday Night Primetime Punisher. Minnesota had a four-game winning streak snapped with a loss in Kansas City last week as it allowed two field goals over the last 2:30 including one with no time remaining to lose by three. This is a very solid team with one of the best rosters in the NFL and the Vikings come in as the No. 6 ranked team in the latest power ratings which is three spots higher than the Cowboys making this line off by two points. The Vikings trail Green Bay by a game in the NFC North and currently hold the last playoff spot in the conference. The Cowboys are coming off a pair of divisional wins over the Eagles and Giants. Four of their five wins have come against teams with two or fewer wins so it is hard to gage how good this team really is. Dallas is playing on a short week coming off a Monday night game and the Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last five games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. Here, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a road loss, in November games. This situation is 64-32 ATS (66.7 percent) since 1983. 10* (271) Minnesota Vikings

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our AFC North Game of the Year. We won with Baltimore last week as it won as a home underdog over previously undefeated New England. Now hitting the road and facing a winless team, this presents the perfect letdown spot. Additionally, the Ravens next three games are against the Texans, Rams and 49ers. It has been an ugly season for the Bengals which are 0-8 and finally decided to make a change at quarterback as Andy Dalton has likely played his last game as a Bengal. Ryan Finley will get the start and while some will think this is a bad idea against an elite Baltimore defense, the defense is not elite like it used to be. Baltimore allows 348.3 ypg which is middle of the pack and its 22 ppg allowed is also right in the middle. Look for the Bengals to play an inspired game for Finley. Here, we play against favorites coming off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team. This situation is 62-28 ATS (68.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (262) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on the OAKLAND RAIDERS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Punisher. The Raiders are only half a game ahead of the Chargers, but they have shown all season that they are a better team. The Raiders schedule was incredibly tough in the first half of the season as they have played the second toughest slate behind Tampa Bay. They are 0-4 against the top 10 but 4-0 against everyone else. One big factor here will be the rushing game. For Oakland, Josh Jacobs has been great all season and is coming off an awesome game against the Lions where he rushed for 120 yards and scored two touchdowns. He goes up against a Chargers run defense that allows 114.1 ypg on 4.2 ypc. On the other side, the Chargers averaging just 79.4 rushing ypg on 3.6 ypc, both of which are fifth worst in the NFL. Meanwhile, Oakland is allowing only 92.5 ypg on 3.7ypc, seventh and fifth respectively in the league. The Raiders have plenty of revenge to play for as they have been swept by the Chargers in each of the last two seasons. The Chargers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game while the Raiders have covered six of their last seven home games. Here, we play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 off an upset win by 14 or more points as a home underdog, after the first month of the season. This situation is 27-7 ATS (79.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (108) Oakland Raiders

This is a play on the NEW YORK GIANTS for our NFL Monday Night Primetime Punisher. The debut of Daniel Jones was a resounding success in a win over Tampa Bay, the first of two straight victories but the Giants have now lost four straight games. He is coming off a great game last week however against the Lions where he threw for 322 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions and now he heads back home where New York has outgained two of its three opponents. Dallas is coming off a win over the Eagles, which snapped a three-game losing streak, and then had its bye week last week. The Cowboys have owned the Giants in recent seasons, winning five straight, including a 35-17 victory in Dallas in the season opener so that brings the revenge angle into play for tonight. The Giants are 17-3 ATS after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in two straight games while the Cowboys are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Here, we play on home underdogs or pickems with a winning percentage of .250 or below after failing to cover the spread in two out of their last three games, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 133-77 ATS (63.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (476) New York Giants

This is a play on the BALTIMORE RAVENS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Punisher. New England is off to an 8-0 start but we are still not completely sold. The Patriots have played the easiest schedule in the NFL as they have played only one team with a winning record and that resulted in a six-point win over Buffalo where they were outgained by 151 total yards. The defense is putting up record numbers but again, we are still not completely sure how good they are. The Patriots have struggled against versatile quarterbacks and Lamar Jackson fits the bill. He has passed for 1,650 yards and rushed for 576 yards and has led Baltimore to a 5-2 record. The Ravens are coming off a bye following a big win in Seattle to increase their winning streak to three games. The extra time off is key here in facing the Patriots and the Ravens have won 10 straight primetime games. Here we play against road favorites outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg, after a win by 10 or more points. This situation is 52-18 ATS (74.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (474) Baltimore Ravens

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Underdog Game of the Month. The Seahawks have won four of their last five games to improve to 6-2 overall but this team has its flaws. They have been outgained in three of their wins, two of which were against Cincinnati and Atlanta which are a combined 1-15. Seattle lost starting center Justin Britt for the season last week and that is huge for an offensive line that was bad to begin with. The Seahawks are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games. The Buccaneers have lost three straight games including a loss against Tennessee last week that was misleading. They outgained the Titans by 143 total yards but lost the turnover battle 4-1. The week before, they lost to Carolina despite outgaining the Panthers by 139 total yards but lost that turnover battle 7-1. Keep the mistakes in check and they will be fine here. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in a game involving two teams with a +/- 3 ppg differential., after allowing three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 46-19 ATS (70.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (467) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFL Thursday Star Attraction. San Francisco has been favored by six or more points this season and has failed to cover both times. The latest came in Washington and while the weather played a big role in that game, the 49ers were favored by 10 points and now they are favored by that same amount. Against a team that is much better and playing much better of late sans last week against New Orleans. Taking nothing away from the 7-0 start but San Francisco has played the fifth easiest schedule in the NFL so that has skewed some of its outstanding defensive numbers. That goes along the same line as some of the quarterbacks they have faced. While Kyler Murray is having an average season, he has improved immensely over his last four games compared to his first four games. The 49ers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game while the Cardinals are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points averaging 27 or more ppg, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 25-7 ATS (78.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (302) Arizona Cardinals

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. Another surprise in the first half of the season in San Francisco which is one of just two undefeated teams in the league. The 49ers are coming off a 9-0 win at Washington where the weather played a role in the outcome of that although it likely would have resulted in a bigger win had the weather been good. A win over the Rams was nice but the other five wins came against teams a combined 7-19 and overall, the schedule is ranked No 27 in the league. The defense has allowed only 10 points over the last three games but should get tested here. Carolina is ranked No. 5 in scoring offense in the NFL and has won four straight games, averaging 31.3 ppg over that stretch. The Panthers have not been as good defensively as in years past but it is still a strong unit. When above .500, Carolina 7-1 ATS coming off a bye and coming off back-to-back wins. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points averaging 370 or more ypg going up against teams allowing between 335 and 370 ypg. This situation is 64-29 ATS (68.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (269) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Non-Conference Game of the Year. The surprise of the first half in the NFL has to include Buffalo which is off to a 5-1 start thanks to a strong defensive presence. The Bills are third in the NFL in total defense and scoring defense but have not played any team with a strong offense and that even includes New England which is a middle of the pack offense. This is a tough spot this week coming off a hard fought divisional win and going up a team that is desperate for a win to turn its season around. Buffalo is 14-28 ATS in its last 42 games coming off a home win against a division rival. The Eagles were embarrassed on national TV last Sunday night and nobody wants a part of this team at the betting window right now. Philadelphia has dropped two straight games and sits a game behind Dallas in the NFC East. The season is far from lost and this is their fifth road game of the season including this being their third straight. Philadelphia is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games when playing against a l team with a winning percentage of .750 or better. 10* (261) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Game of the Month. Detroit got hosed on Monday night as a couple late penalties cost them a chance at winning at Green Bay and improving to 3-1-1. The Lions could be 5-0 as they had Kansas City on the ropes and let Arizona back late in the game in their opener. Now they are catching points at home because of recency bias. The other part of that is how good Minnesota looked against the Eagles last week but the Vikings outgained Philadelphia by just 47 yards and were fortunate in facing a ravaged Eagles secondary. They been able to take advantage of suspect offensive lines but that will not be the case here as the Lions possess an under the radar solid offensive line. The Vikings are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a straight up win of more than 14 points while the Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. 10* (458) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. We lost playing against the Texans last week and this is another situation of recency bias. Houston is coming off a pair of big wins over Atlanta and Kansas City so this line had to be placed where it is knowing the public would be all over the Texans side. While they have been playing well, it was not that long ago that Houston put up 10 and 13 points against Carolina and Jacksonville respectively and that has been forgotten. The Colts are coming off that win over the Chiefs and had a bye last week so they have a solid scheduling edge this week as well. While Jacoby Brissett is no Andrew Luck, he lines up behind arguably the best offensive line in the NFL so the solid Houston pass rush will be limited here. Houston is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 road games off an upset win as an underdog while the Colts are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. 10* (454) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Thursday Star Attraction. After opening the season 0-4, the Broncos have won their last two games as the defense has really stepped up, allowing just one touchdown over that span and recording their first shutout since 2017 last week. Part of the reason for this recent success on defense is that the Broncos have five takeaways the last two weeks after having none in their first four games. New head coach Vic Fangio a defensive guy so his system looks to be finally taking hold. Denver has been a bit unlucky along the way as it has outgained four of six opponents and three of the four losses were by one possession including as pair by just two points. Denver is +31.5 ypg in yardage differential while the Chiefs are -15.8 ypg and both have played similar ranked schedules. Kansas City has dropped two straight games as it has on the negative side of time of possession by a combined 77:03-42:57 so the secret could be out. Denver has the ability to smash it and can keep control of the ball. The public is all over Kansas City which comes as no surprise being a high profile team that has dropped two straight games yet the line has come down, going from as much as -5.5 down to -3. Here, we play against road teams off two or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (304) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Monday Enforcer. First place is on the line tonight in the best division in football which is the only one in the NFL that boasts four winning teams. Detroit suffered its first loss of the season two weeks ago against Kansas City and that defeat is looking worse now with the Chiefs having lost their last two games, both coming at home. We think the Lions are a little overrated at this point as they are ranked No. 21 in the current power rankings. After sweeping the season series the last two years, Detroit has won four in a row against Green Bay for the first time since the 1982 and 1983 seasons and that certainly has the attention of the Packers. Green Bay is coming off a big win over Dallas last Sunday to remain in first place in the NFC North. The lone loss came here against the Eagles in a game where it actually outgained the Eagles by 155 total yards. Here, we play against underdogs or pickems that are averaging 5.8 or more yppl going up against teams allowing 5.8 or more yppl, after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 36-13 ATS (73.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (276) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our AFC Game of the Year. All week, the media has been crushing Kansas City and Patrick Mahomes following the poor performance against the Colts and when elite teams are coming off games like that, bounce back efforts happen more often than not. The Chiefs were outgained by just seven yards against Indianapolis so there is no reason to take the loss from last week too serious. The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games against teams with a winning road record. Houston put up 53 points last week against Atlanta which was 43 more points than what they put up in their previous game against Carolina. The feedback is the opposite of Kansas City as everyone is gushing about Houston now. The Texans hit the road and going back, they are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games against teams with a winning home record. Remember, no team is as good as it looked or as bad as it looked in its previous game. 10* (258) Kansas City Chiefs

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Sunday Star Attraction. Seattle is coming off a big divisional win over the Rams last Thursday and while they have had extra time to prepare, this presents a letdown opportunity. Even more so, west coast teams traveling east for an early game. The Seahawks are 4-1 on the season despite getting outgained in two of their wins including a one-point win over lowly Cincinnati. The Seahawks are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up win. Cleveland will be an unpopular play this week based on its awful performance Monday night as well as the fact it will have had for less days than Seattle to get ready. The Browns outgained three of their first four opponents so the game against the 49ers is an aberration and a dropped to touchdown pass by Antonio Calloway, who was rusty following a four-game suspension, impacted the game completely. The Browns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss. 10* (256) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the NEW YORK GIANTS for our NFL Thursday Star Attraction. This is the ultimate contrarian play as the Giants are now up to a 17-point underdog against New England as they looks to bounce back from a poor effort against the Vikings following a two-game winning streak. Many are pointing to injuries for New York as it will be without Saquon Barkley once again and will also be missing wide receiver Sterling Shephard and tight end Evan Engram. With the struggles of the Giants defense, Tom Brady is going to put up some points and Daniel Jones is going to have to hang with him. This is the fourth time already this season New England has been favored by more than two touchdowns which tells us one of two things. The Patriots are exceptionally good or the schedule has been exceptionally soft. We can all it a mix of both as New England has covered two of the three big spreads but those were against awful teams and taking out the game against the 4-1 Bills which they easily could have lost, the Patriots four other opponents are a combined 1-17. Here, we play against teams averaging 27 or more ppg going up against teams allowing between 23-27 ppg, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 33-11 ATS (75 percent) since 1983. 10* (103) New York Giants

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Monday Star Attraction. San Francisco is off to a 3-0 start it is not overly impressive. The 49ers have defeated a poor Tampa Bay team, a winless Cincinnati team and a Pittsburgh team without its starting quarterback. Overall, those teams are a combined 3-12 and the strength of schedule is ranked No. 24. Even coming off a bye week, they are banged up. The 49ers suffered a significant loss in their latest win with a foot injury that will sideline cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon for at least a month. The other major injury the 49ers are dealing with is at left tackle, where veteran Joe Staley will miss at least six weeks with a broken leg. Cleveland is now 2-2 following its big win in Baltimore last Sunday and a win here is necessary to remain in first place in the AFC North which is now just a two-team race with Cincinnati and Pittsburgh out of it. This line opened at -3 and has steadily increased throughout the week so we are getting some great value. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are averaging 370 or more ypg on offense going up against a team with a defense allowing between 335 and 370 ypg. This situation is 61-28 ATS (68.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (477) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Sunday Star Attraction. Kansas City is rolling along again as it is off to a 4-0 start although it did fail to cover for the first time last Sunday against the Lions. The Chiefs have now scored 25 points in all 23 games he has been under center which is pretty extraordinary when you think about it. The problem is, Kansas City has not had a defense for him. That is the case again this season. Over the last two games, the Chiefs had Baltimore subdued but allowed a couple late scores to make things more interesting and needed a last minute touchdown last week after giving up 30 points to the Lions. Over the last two seasons, the Chiefs have been double-digit favorites only twice, both last year, going 1-1 ATS but those were against Arizona and Oakland, two of the worst teams in the league at the time. Indianapolis is not a bad team and this line is simply too high. In the playoff game last year, the line was -4 so this line is saying Andrew Luck is worth seven points and that is a bit inflated. 10* (475) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our AFC North Game of the Year. Why is everybody so high on Baltimore? The Ravens opened the season with a 59-10 win over the Dolphins and we know what they are made of. They then struggled to beat the Cardinals, fell down big against Kansas City before a couple late scores and were blasted by Cleveland. The defense has been awful as they have allowed 500 yards in two straight games for the first time in franchise history and the 40 points allowed last week were the second most under head coach John Harbaugh. Offensively, Lamar Jackson has digressed since the first two games as last week, a 50-yard touchdown in the final minute skewed his numbers. The Steelers picked up their first win of the season over the Bengals as quarterback Mason Rudolph led a very efficient offense. There have been critics about how much he checked down but he got the job done and he will air it out more downfield against a banged up secondary. Pittsburgh has had trouble running the ball but Baltimore cannot stop the run, allowing 4.9 ypc which is fifth worst in the NFL. 10* (452) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Thursday Star Attraction. This line opened at a pickem and has been driven up a couple points as everyone is down on the Rams now after their pathetic defensive performance against the Buccaneers last Sunday. Los Angeles still outgained Tampa Bay by 54 total yards but they were undone by four turnovers that included three interceptions by Jared Goff. The Rams are now 3-1 on the season as they have outgained all four opponents. The Rams are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. A lot of people are sold on Seattle but we are not one of those. The Seahawks beat a bad Cincinnati team by one point, beat a Pittsburgh team that lost Ben Roethlisberger, lost to New Orleans and beat a bad Arizona team. Many will talk about how Seattle has the distinct rushing advantage here but that is not the case based upon the ypc model. Based on ypc averages, the Rams have a better ypc average on offense, allow fewer ypc on defense and have a positive differential between its offense and defense. The Seahawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Here, we play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games going up against an opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 49-20 ATS (71 percent) since 1983. 10* (301) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Monday Enforcer. A few years ago this would have been a marquee Monday night game but now last place is on the line. Ben Roethlisberger's season-ending right-elbow injury and a defense that's been unable to get critical stops has Pittsburgh facing just its second 0-4 start in 1968. Not much was expected of Cincinnati this season and that has proven to be correct as the Bengals are also 0-3 but they have been more consistent of the two teams. Cincinnati had a chance last week against Buffalo but allowed a late touchdown to remain winless. It also could have won the season opener against Seattle but lost by a point despite outgaining the Seahawks by 197 total yards. The Bengals have lost eight straight and 11 of 12 against the Steelers but of course there is no Roethlisberger this time around. The Bengals are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games while the Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Here, we play on road teams that are getting outrushed by their opponents by 40 or more ypg on the season, after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game. This situation is 23-4 ATS (85.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (277) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS for our NFL Sunday Star Attraction. Dallas looks like one of the top teams in the league right now after starting the season 3-0 straight up and against the number. Digging deeper however shows this might not be the case. The Cowboys are ranked No. 8 in the Sagarin power rankings and this is due to the schedule they have seen as they have played the easiest schedule in the NFL as they have faced teams that are a combined 1-8. Certainly, this is not their fault but because of the record, they are being overvalued and that is the case here being listed as road favorites in one of the toughest environments in the league. New Orleans is 2-1 on the season which includes an impressive win over Seattle last week to conclude a two-game roadtrip. The stats were not pretty but things will get better. The Saints are entering their second full game with quarterback Teddy Bridgewater taking first-team snaps in place of the injured Drew Brees and expect to see progress from a unit that gained 265 yards and accounted for three of the Saints' five touchdowns. In those same Sagarin power rankings, New Orleans is actually one spot higher than Dallas which again proves the wrong team is favored. Here, we play against road favorites averaging 5.7 or more yppl, after gaining 450 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (276) New Orleans Saints

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Game of the Month. The world got a taste of Kyle Allen last week in place of Cam Newton and he was great by going 19-26 for 261 yards and four touchdowns but that came against one of the projected worst defenses in the NFL. Additionally, there was not much tape on Allen so Arizona was prepared for what was coming but Houston has the luxury of a pair of game tapes. The Panthers put up a season-high 38 points last week and that output is keeping this line in check as the Texans are giving just a point and a half more than the Cardinals laid and there is no way those two teams are a difference of a point and a half. The Panthers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game. Houston is off to a 2-1 start following an upset win at Los Angeles last week over the Chargers. They could and should be 3-0 but allowed the Saints to drive downfield in under a minute to kick the game winning field goal. This is the first of two straight home games and Houston could take early charge in the AFC South with a sweep. Here, we play against road underdogs or pickems coming off an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog. This situation is 141-87 ATS (61.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (252) Houston Texans

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Thursday Star Attraction. We love this spot for the Eagles on Thursday night. They have dropped two straight games by a combined seven points including a loss at home against Detroit this past Sunday despite outgaining the Lions by 86 total yards. Dropping to 1-3 will not completely kill their season, but it will not help matters as it is still a sizeable hole to climb out of. Only 27 teams that started the season 1-3 have made the playoffs so it is a challenge. The Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against teams with a winning record. Green Bay is off to a perfect 3-0 start and it is being led by the defense that is allowing just 11.7 ppg which is second best in the NFL. The issue is the Packers have been fortunate to keep the points off the board as they are No. 13 in total defense, allowing 328.3 ypg. A big reason for this variance is that Green Bay is +6 in turnover differential and this positive uptake will not last throughout the season. The Packers are getting outgained by 41.7 ypg which is not a good sign but the fact they are 3-0 straight up and ATS is putting the public behind them and in a big way. 10* (101) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the WASHINGTON REDSKINS for our NFL Monday Enforcer. The Bears go into Monday night's matchup with the third-worst offense in the NFL through the first two weeks of the season. Chicago's offense has produced just one touchdown through two games, a one-yard-run by David Montgomery last week, and Mitch Trubisky is a combined 42 of 72 for 348 yards and an interception. They do get to face the third worst defense in the NFL and while some of that can be attributed to bad play, facing the Eagles and Cowboys the first two weeks did not help. On the other side, we know all about the stout Bears defense but the Washington offense has been pretty solid as Case Keenum has done his part, throwing for 601 yards and five touchdown passes with no interceptions. The Redskins have been solid in these spots are they are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games against winning teams when coming off a pair of losses. The Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games against teams with a losing home record. Here, we play on underdogs or pickems that allowed 335 or more total ypg, after allowing 450 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 34-13 ATS (72.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (490) Washington Redskins

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Game of the Week. Denver is 0-2 for the first time since 1999 but it has played better than that 0-2 record indicates. The Broncos lost by eight points at Oakland in the season opener but outgained the Raiders and last week, they lost at home by two points against Chicago yet still outgained the Bears. Joe Flacco has been criticized but he has been very good with 280 ypg while tossing two touchdowns and just one pick. Green Bay is off to the opposite start with a 2-0 record but it has also been opposite in the stats. The Packers were outgained by both Chicago and Minnesota and coming of a pair of divisional wins, they are in for a letdown as well as a lookahead to the Eagles on a short week as they face Philadelphia next Thursday night. The line is way too big as records alone cannot dictate a line. Here, we play against favorites off a home win, in the first month of the season. This situation is 78-37 ATS (67.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (461) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Sunday Star Attraction. The Chiefs head back to Kansas City for their home opener after posting a pair of double-digit wins on the road. Playing Jacksonville and Oakland helps but those are not horrible teams. Patrick Mahomes has been sensational with 821 passing yards, seven touchdowns and no interceptions. They have looked very impressive as expected and this has been a very odd line move as the number has come down from initial opening. The Chiefs are 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up win. The line movement is due to the start of the Baltimore Ravens which are also off to a 2-0 start. Their level of opposition has been much worse though that has definitely played into the record. Lamar Jackson has been a pleasant early surprise but the jury is still out as facing the Dolphins, with the worse roster in the league, and the Cardinals, with the worst passing defense in the league last season, has played a role. Here we play on home favorites off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, team that had a winning record last season. This situation is 37-12 (75.5 percent) since 1983. 9* (466) Kansas City Chiefs

This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our NFL Thursday Enforcer. We would normally take a look at the home underdog in a primetime game but not in this case as the Jaguars are a mess right now. They are down to their second string quarterback and last week, Jalen Ramsey got into a sideline fight with Doug Marrone and has now demanded a trade. From a matchup standpoint, the defenses should decide this game. Jacksonville is allowing 119.5 rushing ypg through two weeks, and with the Titans being a team that relies heavily on their running game, that is good news for Tennessee. On the other side, the Titans ranked eighth in the league in defense last year, and through two games in 2019, they have allowed just 32 points, and they have played some potent offenses. Offensively, look for Marcus Mariota to target tight end Delanie Walker and wide receiver Adam Humphries more than last week, especially on third down. Here, we play on road teams against division opponents, first month of the season, non-playoff team from last season who won four or more of their last five games. This situation is 30-9 ATS (76.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (301) Tennessee Titans

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Sunday Star Attraction. This is the rematch of that controversial NFC Championship Game and while the word revenge will be tossed around leading up to the game, we are not a fan of road revenge in this spot. The Rams are coming off a win in Carolina last Sunday by three points and while the offense did not look very good, we can expect a bounce back this week against a Saints defense that allowed 414 total yards against the Texans. New Orleans defeated Houston on Monday Night Football but we still cashed on the Texans and the Saints are now on a 1-10 ATS run in the first two weeks of the season the last six years. The Saints now hit the road for the first time where they were excellent last season but going back, they have failed to cover four straight games against teams with a winning record. Here, we play on home favorites that outscored opponents by 4.0 or more ppg last season, after scoring 30 points or more last game. This situation is 45-18 ATS (71.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (284) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Game of the Week. Pittsburgh got hammered in New England last week by 30 points as the offense managed a mere field goal on 15 first downs. Playing that New England defense can do that to a team and we expect the Steelers to come out with a lot more fire than they showed last week. Returning home certainly helps where the Steelers are 23-9 over the last four seasons. Seattle is coming off a one-point win over Cincinnati at home and it did not look good in doing so. The Seahawks were outgained by 196 total yards and Ben Roethlisberger is licking his chops after Andy Dalton threw for a career high 418 yards. The public is down on the Steelers and is rushing to grab the points with Seattle as fast as they can. However, we have actually seen the line move to -4 in some places even though 75 percent of the bets are backing Seattle. Here, we play on teams that lost their opening game on the road and are back home in Week Two. This situation is 41-25-1 ATS (62.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (276) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Thursday Enforcer. It was a disappointing opening week for both Carolina and Tampa Bay as both lost at home in Week One. The Buccaneers were the bigger disappointment however as they lost to San Francisco in a bad way, committing four turnovers in the two-touchdown loss. The Panthers rallied from a 13-0 deficit to within three points on two different occasions but fell short against the Rams. After a sloe start, the offense moved the ball great in the second half under the new Norv Turner offense and we expect that to carry over into Thursday on a short turnaround that favors the home team. Carolina is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 home games after allowing 30 points or more last game and it falls into a great situation as we play on NFL division home teams on Thursdays coming off a home loss. This situation is 12-4 ATS (75 percent) since 1980. 10* (102) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Monday Enforcer. A lot of talk is about how New Orleans will be extremely motivated following the controversial playoff loss from last season against the Rams. That shows the short memory these people have considering the Saints lost on a last play against the Vikings in the playoffs two years ago and opened last season with a home loss against Tampa Bay. Houston is no less motivated to get the season off to a positive start as it is also coming off a playoff loss following an 11-2 end to the regular season. This line is severely overinflated for the Saints against a team that has one of the best overall rosters in the league. Here, we play against home teams that allowed 7.0 or more passing ypa last season, in non-conference games. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (479) Houston Texans

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Game of the Week. The public are victims of recency bias and are inclined to back the Rams because of their Super Bowl trip. They opened as three-point road favorites and despite nearly 80 percent of bets backing Los Angeles, the line remained frozen. Late this week, the line has actually come down which makes this the perfect case of reverse line movement. Cam Newton is healthy and feels better than ever. Here, we play against the defending Super Bowl loser if on the road in the season opener in non-conference games. This situation is 14-1 ATS (93.3 percent) since 1990. 10* (468) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The Miami fire sale continued this past week and the betting markets are making their adjustments. The Ravens opened as 3.5-point road favorites and they are receiving nearly 90 percent of bets, making them the top public play of Week One. This massive backing pushed Baltimore all the way to -7 midweek. As bad as Miami is considered to be, Baltimore is not a touchdown better, especially on the road. Here, we play on underdogs or pickems that allowed 385 or more total ypg last season. This situation is 30-8 ATS (78.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (460) Miami Dolphins

This is a play on the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS for our Super Bowl LIII Winner. A ton of sharp money came in on New England as soon as the line was posted, which caused it to move 2 whole points in just nine minutes. It has gone up another half-point since then and settled in at 2.5 for most of this week despite a majority of later action coming in on the Rams. There are some spots where -2 is available at a little added juice but laying the 2.5 points is more than fine as it comes in under the key number of three. When it first came out, we had a lean on the Rams but based on the sharp money reports and matchup analysis, we have shifted to New England. Covers writer Patrick Everson spoke with Aaron Kessler at the Golden Nugget about what has been happening and what is to be predicted. "We were getting one-sided action early on the Patriots," Kessler said of what prompted the move to 3, and oddly enough, the first wager that came in at that number was a low-five-figure bet on the Patriots. But that course quickly changed. "We're back to 2.5 flat, plenty of Rams money flowing in. If I had to guess, I'd say it closes 2.5." The shift to the Patriots is mostly based on how its offensive line is playing and how it has protected Tom Brady. The majority of the talking heads and gasbags claim that the Rams have the talent up front to disrupt that offense line and make Brady move but we do not think that will be the case even though the defensive line is very talented. Running the ball behind that offensive line will be key as well. Since the Belichick-Brady era began in 2000, they are 11-0 in the postseason when a player rushes for 100 yards, and 51-1 in the regular season. The Rams allow a below average 4.8 ypc. Even though they are favored, New England is still acting like the underdog and that is a big motivational factor. New England is 17-4 ATS against teams allowing 350 or more ypg while the Rams are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* (101) New England Patriots

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Playoff Game of the Year. This line is holding strong at -3 and will likely stay on this number before kickoff. Some demons were removed last week with Kansas City as it defeated the Colts and essentially removed any pressure going forward. The Chiefs have had one of their best seasons in years and appear to have finally found their franchise quarterback in Patrick Mahomes. But in order to complete their ascension, they will need to beat the very best the NFL has to offer in Bill Belichick and the Patriots. New England has had a dynasty going for a while now yet they are only 3-4 in the postseason on the road under Belichick, which opens the door for a team as well-coached and dangerous as the Chiefs to perhaps negate that advantage. Additionally, the Patriots went 3-5 on the road this season with all five of those losses coming against non-playoff teams. w England played a near flawless game last week against the Chargers but it did catch Los Angeles in a tough spot having to play its second straight road game on the east coast in an early game. Much is being said about how cold it is going to be in Kansas City and how good of a cold-weather quarterback Tom Brady is. Those claims are pretty false however as he is not great in real cold weather (20 and under). He has completed 125 of 223 passes (56.1 percent) for 1,307 yards, 10 touchdowns, and four interceptions while posting a QB rating of 80.7. here, we play on home favorites in the second half of the season that are outgaining opponents by 0.4 to 1 yppl going up against a team with a +/- 0.4 yppl differential, after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 72-37 ATS (66.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (314) Kansas City Chiefs

This is a play on the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS for our Sunday NFL Eagles/Saints Winner. This is the first time since 2009 that the Saints have had a first round bye and with this being one of the best home fields in the NFL, this is big for New Orleans. Since the beginning of the Drew Brees/Sean Payton era in 2006 the team has a 7-5 postseason record. Payton and Brees are 5-0 in home playoff games, including 2-0 at home in the divisional round. In those five home games, Brees threw for 1,529 yards with 12 touchdown passes against one interception and his career playoff passer rating in New Orleans is 116.8. Another big reason that New Orleans got a bye was for rest purposes as the offense started to look tired down the stretch. It was actually a two-week layoff for most starters as they rested Week 17. What Nick Foles has done has been incredible the last two seasons but this is where we feel the magic ends. Philadelphia was 6-7 and outside of the playoff picture when it turned to Foles. Including the playoffs, he has now started 12 games for Philadelphia the last two seasons, and the Eagles have won 10 of them. The Saints dominated Wentz in the first meeting this season and they should do the same to Foles this week. Philadelphia is 4-13 ATS revenging a road loss by 14 points while the Saints are 25-6 ATS in their last 31 home games against teams with a winning road record. Here, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off two consecutive road wins, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) since 1983 with the average margin of victory being +14.1 ppg. 10* (308) New Orleans Saints

This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our Saturday NFL Cowboys/Rams Winner. The Rams stormed out of the gate with an 8-0 record but they became pretty average the rest of the season as they went 5-3 over the final eight games. With the exception of an early season win over the Chargers, Los Angeles struggled against playoff teams as it went 3-3 in six games with the three wins coming by a combined 10 points. Jared Goff was outstanding to start the season but over the last six weeks of the season, he has dealt with much more pressure, and as the pressure came, so did his mistakes. While the regression of Goff played a big part in the second half, the defense performed pretty bad as well. In those final six games against playoff teams, the Rams allowed 33.8 ppg and on the season, the Rams allowed a higher ypc average than any other team in the league. This means Ezekiel Elliott could go off again after gaining 137 yards against the Seahawks last week. Additionally, Dak Prescott kept the Seattle defense off balance with quarterback draws and sweeps and he will utilize that again in keeping the ultra-aggressive Rams front seven on their toes which will slow the pass rush down. On the other side, if the Cowboys defense plays a similar game that they did against the Saints, they can win this game outright. This is a home game for the Rams but the stadium will not be fully Los Angeles fans. A 50/50 split that some say is coming seems unlikely as the Rams' success the past two years has strengthened their hold on the bulk of locals but 60/40 or 65/35 isn't out of the question. Dallas is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games against teams allowing 350 ypg. 10* (303) Dallas Cowboys

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our Sunday NFL Eagles/Bears Winner. The Eagles are back in the playoffs behind the arm of Nick Foles, who has made three starts, and a defense that has played well down the stretch. The defense has given up only 4.8 yppl in his starts (for reference, the Bears and Ravens tied for best in the NFL in the regular season, allowing 4.8 yppl), and a lot of this can be attributed to Foles and the offense in his ability to slow down the game. Facing the Bears defense will be a challenge but he was able to defeat the No. 8 pass defense of the Rams in his first start this year. We are catching an inflated number due to the Bears cover success of late as they are 9-1 ATS over their last 10 games. Chicago has impressed for sure and that defense is obviously the strength. The offense averaged just 5.6 yppl on the season and the Bears are not going to change much based on the somewhat limited Mitchell Trubisky. He has not exactly impressed since returning from his shoulder as they are averaging just 19.3 ppg and he has only four touchdowns compared to three interceptions in those four games. The Eagles are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games against defenses allowing 90 or fewer ypg rushing while Chicago is 7-18 ATS in its last 25 games off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after a game where they forced no turnovers going up against an opponent after a game where they committed one or less turnovers. This situation is 55-25 ATS (68.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (107) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our Saturday NFL Seahawks/Cowboys Winner. We expect to see a good deal of running the football in this matchup and the edge goes to Dallas in a strength against strength on one side and strength against weakness on the other. Seattle finished the regular season first in rushing yards per game and fifth in yards per carry so it will continue to try and pound the ball. However, this will be an excellent test against a Dallas defense ranked fifth in yards per carry allowed, led by linebackers Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander Esch. On the other side, Dallas was ranked 10th in rushing offense led by Ezekiel Elliott who gashed the Seahawks defense with 127 yards on 16 carries (7.9 ypc) in the first meeting and this was a problem for the Seahawks all season. They finished dead last in the NFL in yards per carry average at 4.9 so Elliot should have another big game. The Cowboys are 16-4 in 20 games when he rushes for 100 yards and while one of those losses was against the Seahawks, that game was in Seattle and Dallas has only lost to Green Bay at home in those 100-yard games. The Cowboys are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game and they fall into a successful situation where we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 averaging between 18 and 23 ppg going up against a team averaging between 23 and 27, after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored. This situation is 38-13 ATS (74.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (104) Dallas Cowboys

This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our NFL Sunday Night Primetime Winner. The Titans have won four in row, and their strength is their defense. Tennessee is second in the NFL in scoring defense, allowing just 18.0 ppg, and they have not yielded more than 16 points in any of their past three games. Some will scoff at that four-game winning streak considering the wins came against the Jets, Jaguars, Giants and Redskins but many will forget the two-game winning streak prior to that against the Patriots and Cowboys. Indianapolis has won eight of its last nine games but half of those wins came by a field goal or less, three coming at home and while blowout wins over Dallas and Tennessee look impressive, they were at home and the one against the Titans, Mariota left the game in the second quarter. Colts quarterback Andrew Luck has owned the Titans since he entered the league. He is 10-0 against Tennessee, but Luck noted this week that the past doesn't have any impact on this game and he is 100 percent correct. Here, we play against road teams in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after one or more consecutive wins, playing a team with a winning percentage between .501 and .600. This situation is 79-40 ATS (66.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (322) Tennessee Titans

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Game of the Month. By way of CBS Sports, the Texas have four chances to secure a first round bye but only two are realistic. First, if they win Sunday against the Jaguars and have the Patriots lose or tie, they are the No. 2 seed. Second, the Texans can also win, have the Chiefs lose, the Chargers lose and get the strength of victory tiebreaker over the Chiefs. Houston lost to Philadelphia last week but became the sixth team since 1980 to reach the playoffs after a 0-3 start on Sunday evening when Pittsburgh lost to New Orleans. The Texans will rely on Deshaun Watson who has played clean football over the past five games, throwing eight touchdown passes with no interceptions and running for three more scores. The Jaguars defense played well again against Miami but they have a bigger challenge this week and the offense continues to sputter. Jacksonville is 4-18 ATS in its last 22 games after allowing 200 or less total yards in their previous game. Here, we play on teams in the second half of the season averaging fewer than 1.25 turnovers per game going up against teams forcing fewer than 1.25 tpg, after four consecutive games where they committed one or less turnovers. This situation is 52-27 ATS (65.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (314) Houston Texans

This is a play on the OAKLAND RAIDERS for our NFL Monday Enforcer. This is one of the better rivalries in the NFL and it should be no different tonight. The Raiders could be hosting their last ever game in Oakland so the scene will be pretty intense and gives the Raiders a significant edge. While it has been a disappointing season for the Raiders, they have played better of late as they have outgained three of their last opponents while one of the exceptions was getting outgained by Kansas City by just 27 yards. One of the players who has caught a lot of flak is Derek Carr but he has passed for 3,697 yards and 19 touchdowns and has not thrown an interception in the last nine games. The Broncos have lost two straight games following a three-game winning streak and the talk of head coach Vance Joseph of getting fired are getting stronger. Going back, the Broncos are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games following an ATS loss including going 0-6 ATS in their last six games following consecutive losses against the spread. Here, we play against teams that are averaging 4.5 or more rushing ypc, after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game. This situation is 62-32 ATS (66 percent) since 1983. 10* (132) Oakland Raiders

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Game of the Week. The Bears have clinched a playoff berth thanks to a pair of home wins over the Rams and Packers. They finished 7-1 at home but they are only 3-3 on the road and while there was a blowout win at Buffalo, the other two victories were far from dominating as they were outgained in Detroit by 69 yards and won by just two points at Arizona. To their credit, all three road losses could have been wins but the makeup of this team shows that Chicago should not be laying a significant number on the road. The 49ers are just 4-10 on the season but continue to play hard and they are coming off a pair of impressive wins over Seattle and Denver. San Francisco is 0-7 on the road but it does have a winning record at home and can close the season with its first winning record at home since 2013. Quarterback Nick Mullens has been excellent since taking over as he has a QB Rating of 96 in his six games and he is 3-1 at home with the lone loss coming by just four points. Here, we play against road teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after covering the spread in five or six out of their last seven games, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 82-45 ATS (64.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (126) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Saturday Enforcer. Because the Chargers are coming off a Thursday game and are at home while Baltimore is travelling on a short week, Los Angeles has a significant situational edge. The Chargers are coming off a last-second victory at Kansas City that pulled them into a tie with the Chiefs atop the AFC West. Kansas City holds the tiebreaker, so Los Angeles will have to win out and hope for the Chiefs to lose once to claim the top seed. The Chargers have won four straight games, the last three without running back Melvin Gordon and those games were all close and with Gordon back, the offense gets back another weapon. The Chargers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a winning record. Baltimore has won four of its last five games which has coincided with quarterback Lamar Jackson taking over for Joe Flacco. However, Jackson has fumbled an NFL-high seven times since Week 11, losing three of those, and this Chargers defense is primed for takeaways. The Ravens might currently hold the final wild-card spot in the AFC, but that could change dramatically if they can't upset the Chargers. A Ravens victory gets them up to an 82 percent chance to make the playoffs, while a loss drops them to just 16 percent. The Ravens are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game while going 1-4 ATS against teams with a winning record. 10* (124) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Monday Enforcer. Halfway through the season, it looked as though the Panthers were going to make some noise as they were 6-2 and trailed New Orleans by just one game. Then came a five-game losing streak and now Carolina is fighting for its playoff life. While things are looking bleak, the Panthers have not been playing bad as they have outgained each of their last four opponents with all of the losses coming by just one possession. The schedule has not been on their side either with four of the last five games coming on the road. The Saints have not exactly been tearing things up of late as they are averaging just 262 ypg over their last three games and have been outgained in two of those while outgaining the Buccaneers by only 19 yards last week. This is the third straight road game for New Orleans which is never an ideal situation and the Saints close out with two home games. The Saints have been favored by more than a field goal on the road four times and while they have covered three of those, those were all against teams out of playoff contention. Carolina is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 home games in the second half of the season against teams averaging 375 or more ypg and here, we play against favorites that are outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 35-12 ATS (74.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (332) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS as part of our NFL Sunday Trifecta. Pittsburgh had won six straight games but it has lost its last three games and is just a half-game ahead of Baltimore in the AFC North. There are five seven-win teams in the AFC so winning out could be the possibility for making the playoffs and it starts against a nemesis. The Steelers are 0-5 in their past five games against the Patriots, including a 27-24 loss at Heinz Field last December that prevented Pittsburgh from earning the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs. Pittsburgh is 19-8 ATS in its last 27 home games in the second half of the season against teams allowing 350 or more ypg. The Patriots are coming off the brutal loss against Miami and they are now a half-game behind Houston for the No. 2 seed and a first round bye. While this game means a lot for them as well, knowing they have the Bills and Jets at home to close the season helps. Here, we play on underdogs or pickems with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 in the second half of the season off an upset loss as a road favorite. This situation is 27-7 ATS (79.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (328) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS as part of our NFL Sunday Trifecta. The Cowboys have turned their season around as a 1-3 stretch has been followed up by a five-game winning streak which has propelled Dallas into first place in the NFC East. They have a two-game lead but hit the road after a three-game homestand and the Cowboys are just 2-4 on the road compared to being 6-1 at home. The Colts bounced back for us last week as they defeated the Texans, snapping their nine-game winning streak. They are tied with Baltimore for the final Wild Card spot in the AFC but are currently out based on the tiebreaker making this a must win. While it could be considered a letdown spot, Indianapolis is 19-8 ATS in its last 27 home games off an upset win as a road underdog. Here, we play against road underdogs or pickems in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after two or more consecutive wins playing a team with a winning percentage between .501 and .600. This situation is 36-13 ATS (73.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (314) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Saturday Enforcer. As a situational handicapper for the most part, this one sets up very well and while this number does not look ideal, it is based on the talent gap and in this case, it is huge. Houston had its nine-game winning streak snapped at home last week against the Colts and now sits two games ahead of Indianapolis in the AFC South with a couple marginal tests remaining. While the Texans have had some close road games, five of the six came against teams still in the playoff hunt and the lone exception resulted in a 13-point win at Jacksonville. Houston is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games after allowing 400 or more total ypg in their last three games. The Jets snapped a six-game losing streak with a win in Buffalo last week thanks to three Bills turnovers. New York has been outgained in seven of its last eight games including differentials in its last four games of -252, -160, -123 and -120. The Jets are ranked No. 30 in offensive efficiency and that has been the big downfall as the defense has at least been average. It could be even worse this week as New York could be without its leading rusher and second leading receiver. The Jets are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Here, we play on road favorites with a completion percentage of 60 percent or better, after allowing 7.0 or more passing ypa in three straight games. This situation is 45-18 ATS (71.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (303) Houston Texans

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Thursday Star Attraction. The Chargers do look appealing in this spot based on this being one of the best opportunities to snap their nine-game losing streak against Kansas City. But, there is plenty of motivation on the Chiefs side as well as they can wrap up the division with a win and likely clinch home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Kansas City is 6-0 at home and welcome the Chargers for their second meeting this season after winning in Los Angeles in the season opener. The last two games have been closer than expected but going back, the Chiefs have won the yardage battle in each of their last five games and by an average of 83.8 ypg. The one aspect where home field has made a huge difference is the defense as Kansas City allows 34.1 ppg on the road while giving up just 18.7 ppg at home. The Chargers have won three straight and nine of their last 10 games with the lone loss coming against Denver in a game they lost on a last second field goal. They are playing some of the best football in the NFL but this is a time of year where it has struggled and it is no coincidence. The Chargers are 3-8 in their last 11 games in December and they have lost four straight outright on the road outdoors. Injuries could play a big role here as well as Los Angeles will likely be without running back Melvin Gordon once again as he is doubtful and a game-time decision while Kansas City will be getting defensive back Eric Berry on the field for the first time this season. He we play on home favorites after having won three out of their last four games going up against an opponent, after having won eight or more out of their last 10 games. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (302) Kansas City Chiefs

This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Monday Enforcer. The Vikings are 2-3-1 on the road and while that looks unimpressive, the schedule has been brutal by playing three divisional leaders as well as the Packers and Eagles. Minnesota is coming off a 24-10 loss in New England last Sunday and being a high profile game, most will remember that and carry that recency bias into this week. Additionally, the Seahawks have won three straight games including a 27-point win over the 49ers last week. Impressive on the scoreboard but not impressive in the stats as Seattle was outgained by 121 total yards and was fortunate to win the turnover battle 3-0. While Seattle has had the better ground game this season overall, we could see a flip tonight with Minnesota possessing the better rush game. The Vikings have talked all week of wanting to run it more, and especially to get running back Dalvin Cook, who is averaging 4.2 ypc, more touches. And given that Seattle comes into the game still ranked tied for last in rushing yards allowed per carry at 5.1, it makes sense for the Vikings to try to establish the run. on the other side, the Seahawks are a run-first team, but the only win they have by more than three points over a top-15 run defense is the Cowboys and that was only due to winning the turnover battle 3-0 as they were outrushed 166-113. Seattle will have to go against a Minnesota defense that allows just 3.7 ypc, fifth in the NFL, and has not allowed a run all season of longer than 21 yards compared to every other team that has allowed at least one run of 28 yards. Seattle is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games off a win by 21 points or more over a division rival while the Vikings are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. 10* (133) Minnesota Vikings

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES as part of our NFL Sunday Trifecta. The Eagles made it two straight wins with their win over Washington on Monday night as they caught a break with Colt McCoy having to exit early with a broken leg. Philadelphia is just one game behind Dallas in the NFC East and this is a must won considering the Cowboys won the first meeting as a loss here would realistically put the Eagles three games back. The Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up win of more than 14 points. Dallas has won four straight games starting with that win over the Eagles and culminating with a win over the Saints last Thursday. Dallas has the edge with time off from playing on a Thursday but in a divisional game, we will grab the value. The Cowboys are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams with a +/- 3 ppg differential, after allowing three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 40-11 ATS (78.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (129) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS as part of our NFL Sunday Trifecta. We played against the Colts last week and while we were confident in the Jaguars defense, we did not expect a shutout. Now Andrew Luck will be out to bounce back which he has done the majority of time in the past. He is an incredible 16-2 straight up and ATS when coming off a loss if his team is .333 or better. The Colts are not in must win mode but they are close as a loss here will keep them at least a game out of the second Wild Card spot. Houston has won nine straight games and while we played against the Texans last week and lost, the dominations are still not there as they were outgained by the Browns with a 4-0 turnover advantage being the difference. Despite being as hot as they are, we feel the Texans are overvalued here as a field goal should be the line in this divisional matchup. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points revenging a loss where opponent scored 35 or more points, off a loss by seven points or less to a division rival. This situation is 30-9 ATS (76.9 percent) since 1983. 9* (107) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our NFL Thursday Enforcer. Tennessee snapped a two-game slide with a come-from-behind win over the Jets last Sunday as the Titans scored the game winning touchdown with 36 seconds left. They outgained the Jets by 123 total yards and the defense did its job once again as they did not allow and offensive touchdown. Obviously, the Jets offense is garbage but the same can be said about the opponent tonight as well. Tennessee is ranked No. 10 and No. 6 in total defense and scoring defense respectively and will square off against another backup quarterback. Jacksonville is coming off a win over the Colts but not too much can be read into that as it was outgained overall and was bailed out by some questionable Indianapolis moves by taking points off the board and eventually getting stopped on fourth down and not kicking a field goal on another fourth down which resulted in a sack and a turnover on downs. The Jaguars defense played at a high level after a stretch of poor showing and we suspect a reversal to that tonight as they hit the road where they are 1-4. The Jaguars are 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game while the Titans are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* (102) Tennessee Titans

This is a play on the WASHINGTON REDSKINS for our NFL Monday Enforcer. The Eagles lost five of seven games culminating in a 48-7 loss at New Orleans two weeks ago. Things appeared bleak last week as the Eagles faced deficits of 12-0 and 19-3 but wound up rallying for a 25-22 win over the Giants. This may seem like the turning point for Philadelphia but it has not gotten there yet as there are issues on both sides. Washington lost quarterback Alex Smith to a gruesome leg injury and Colt McCoy got thrust into the starting lineup against the Cowboys on a short week. Now, he is coming off a long week after having played on Thanksgiving and while he definitely showed rust 11 days ago, he is in a much better spot now going from facing the No. 5 ranked defense to now facing the No. 24 ranked defense. Washington is 17-2 ATS in its last 19 games in the second half of the season against teams allowing 6.0 or more yppl while the Eagles are 0-6 ATS in their last six games against teams allowing 6.0 or more yppl. Additionally, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season coming off a win by three points or less over a division rival, with a winning percentage between .450 and .550. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (379) Washington Redskins

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Game of the Week. The early line on this was Cincinnati -2.5 prior to last Sunday and there is no way Andy Dalton is worth 7.5 points so the value is squarely on the Bengals here. Jeff Driskel was decent last week after coming in and with a full week of preparation and having A.L. Green back, he is not a significant downgrade. The Broncos are coming off consecutive impressive wins over the Chargers and Steelers but what is not shown in the scores is that they were outgained by 154 and 219 total yards respectively. The only other road win for Denver was at 2-9 Arizona. Denver is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in five straight games while the Bengals are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 after having won two out of their last three games, playing a losing team. This situation is 68-27 ATS (71.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (366) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our NFL Thursday Enforcer. The Saints are humming along with 10 straight wins and nine straight covers so the fact they are over a touchdown favorite here is no surprise. Things were looking bleak for Dallas after a home loss against Tennessee but it has won and covered three straight games since then and this is the perfect primetime matchup for the Cowboys to show they are still relevant. The New Orleans offense continues to light it up but the Cowboys defense is soaring and has allowed the third-fewest points (213), fourth-fewest rushing yards (1,030), fifth-fewest first downs (207) and seventh-fewest total yards (3,642). The Cowboys offense has improved drastically since receiver Amari Cooper joined the team. That was made clear by his performance last week against the Redskins as he had 180 yards, including touchdown catches of 40 and 90 yards. His presence is now big to keep the balance going. Ezekiel Elliott overtook Todd Gurley for NFL lead last week (1,074 yards rushing to 1,043). He has 18 100-yard games since joining league in 2016 and no other player has more than 12. He's averaging 161 scrimmage yards with four TDs in past four games and while the Saints rushing defense is the best in the league, a big reason for that is they have seen the fewest rushes against them. Here, we play against road favorites that are outrushing their opponents by 40 or more ypg, after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards last game. This situation is 106-63 (62.7 percent) since 1983. 10* (302) Dallas Cowboys

This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our NFL Monday Enforcer. Houston is the hottest team in the AFC with seven consecutive wins and it returns home following a pair of two-point road victories. The Texans have been far from dominating however as four of those wins came by three points or less and the other three came against Buffalo, Jacksonville and Miami which all have losing records. Houston is now 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a win by three points or less while going 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. Tennessee is 8-2 ATS in its 10 divisional games with Marcus Mariota when coming off a loss. Before the Titans were obliterated at Indianapolis last week, they defeated Dallas by 14 and New England by 24. In those two games, Mariota threw four touchdown passes, ran for another and didn't suffer an interception so the fact he is playing tonight is important. Until last week, the Titans had not given up more than 27 points in any game and that 27 came in Week One in Miami. This defense is legit. Two weeks ago, the Titans used several blitz packages to take advantage of the Patriots offensive line and they will do the same against Houston. The Texans offensive line is much worse as the unit is ranked No. 24 in the league. Going back, the Titans are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* (273) Tennessee Titans

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS as part of our NFL Sunday Trifecta. Since beating the Eagles on 9/24, Tampa Bay has gone 1-7 with the only win coming in overtime against Cleveland. However, the Buccaneers have won the yardage battle in six of those eight games as turnover and special teams have been a difference. The 49ers have found new life with Nick Mullens at quarterback but now he is making his first career road start and while Tampa Bay is not the most hostile of environments, it is on the road nonetheless. Here, we play on teams after five consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers going up against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. This situation is 60-27 ATS (69 percent) since 1983. 10* (256) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS as part of our NFL Sunday Trifecta. Seattle snapped a two-game slide with a win over Green Bay last Thursday and is now just a game out of the second Wild Card spot in the NFC. The Seahawks are a respectable 3-3 on the road but while they are 3-1 against non-playoff teams, they lost both games against the Rama and Bears, two teams going into the postseason. Carolina is coming off another frustrating loss on the road where they have just one victory and that took a three-touchdown fourth quarter to accomplish. Carolina is 5-0 at home and falls into a great situation where we play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 off two or more consecutive overs, averaging 23-27 ppg going up against teams allowing 23-27 ppg. This situation is 36-14 ATS (72 percent) since 1983. 10* (264) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our Thanksgiving Day Enforcer. Atlanta has dropped two straight games to fall to 4-6 in the season and are now a full five games behind New Orleans in the NFC South. While winning the division is almost out of the question at this point, the Falcons are still well alive in the Wild Card race as they trail Carolina by just two games but time is running out. We are more concerned with the spread here however as Atlanta is getting close to a full touchdown more than the Eagles got last week and there is not much difference between the Falcons and Eagles. New Orleans has won nine straight games while covering its last eight and the Saints are laying their biggest number of the season as the looks have been getting killed by New Orleans backers. The offense is humming along as the Saints are now averaging 37.8 ppg which leads the league but this is not the time to be laying this big of a number, especially against an Atlanta offense that can keep up. The Saints are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games coming off a double-digit win going up against an opponent off consecutive losses while going 2-13 ATS in their last 15 games as favorites off a non-divisional game and playing a divisional opponent playing with revenge. Additionally, we play against favorites outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 35-11 ATS (76.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (109) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Monday Enforcer. This game was moved from Mexico City to Los Angeles and while that benefits the Rams faithful, it helps Kansas City more than anything based on a betting perspective. The Rams were -3 on the neutral field and now are just a half-point higher after the game being moved to their home field and the number has nor moved at some places. While Los Angeles opened the season with three straight covers, it has gone 1-6 ATS in its last seven games as the defense has let opposing teams hang around and that is not an ideal situation for tonight. The Rams have allowed 31 or more points in four of their last seven games and an average of 27.9 ppg over that stretch after giving up just 12 ppg in their first three games. The Chiefs defense has been scrutinized all year but it has improved as the season has progressed and while this will be its biggest test it has faced, trending in the right direction is key. The Rams are 2-15 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing 400 or more total yards in two consecutive games while Kansas City has covered six straight road games following two or more consecutive wins. Additionally, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that have a completion percentage of 60 percent or better, after gaining 6.75 or more passing ypa in four straight games. This situation is 25-7 ATS (78.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (473) Kansas City Chiefs

This is a play on the OAKLAND RAIDERS for our NFL Game of the Week. Two of the worst teams in the NFL square off in Arizona and these teams should be a pickem on a neutral field which gives us a ton of value on the Raiders. Oakland has dropped five straight games and while the offense has been moving the ball, it has not been putting up points as the Raiders have scored a total of 22 points in four of those games. Arizona does possess an underrated defense but it is the other side of the ball where Oakland has a big edge. The Cardinals are second to last in the NFL in offensive efficiency and they are also second to last in scoring offense, averaging just 13.8 ppg. Arizona has outgained only one opponent all season and that was by just 54 yards in an 18-15 win over San Francisco. They are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games but all were as underdogs and they are now favored for just the second time all season and by the largest amount. Here, we play on teams after scoring nine points or less in two straight games. This situation is 39-13 ATS (75 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (469) Oakland Raiders

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Thursday Enforcer. This line opened at 2.5 and stayed there until last night but now it has climbed to 3 at most places which is what we were hoping for on the Green Bay side. Recent series history is swaying the public onto Seattle as the home team has won seven straight meetings and coupled with the Packers 0-4 record on the road, this is going to be a contrarian play. While the quarterbacks are the story here, this one could come down to the running game. Seattle leads the NFL in rushing offense with 152.2 ypg but Green Bay leads the league with 5.2 ypc so anyone that says the Seahawks have the edge there is mistaken. The total yardage number is inflated because Seattle is second in the league in rushing attempts and breaking down the offensive lines shows Green Bay with a massive edge as it is No. 4 in the Adjusted Line Yards formula with Seattle coming in at No. 15. Taking that a step further shows the Seahawks are third to last in the league in pass protection. The home field advantage for the Seahawks has declined as they are just 5-6 since the start of last season and they have been outgained in all three home games this season. Here, we play against home favorites with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 after covering the spread in four out of their last five games. This situation is 44-18 ATS (71 percent) since 1983. 10* (307) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Game of the Week. Green Bay is coming off a brutal two-game roadtrip where it lost to the Rams and Patriots to fall to 3-4-1 on the season but it is just a game and a half back in the NFC North. This is a must win for the Packers however as they have to venture out on the road in two more tough environments after this in Seattle and Minnesota. This game sets up similar to the one against the Bills as Green Bay was coming of a bad road loss against Washington and bounced back as expected. Miami is not as bad as the Bills many will argue but the Dolphins are not far off. They have been outgained in seven of their last eight games including two wins against the Jets where they won the yardage battle by 105 and 107 yards. Turnovers have been the difference that has kept them above water. Now Miami heads to Green Bay where temperatures will be in the 20s at gametime. Brock Osweiler will be making his fifth start for the Dolphins and while he is 2-2, the offense has gotten worse moving forward especially last week where the only touchdown came on an interception return. Miami is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games against teams allowing 350 or more ypg while going 0-6 ATS in its last six road games after being outgained by 100 or more total yards last game. Additionally, Miami is 1-15 ATS in its last 16 games after a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better. 10* (262) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The Saints are coming off a monster win last week against the Rams making a case from them now being the team to beat in the NFC. A big win at home like that can certainly produce a letdown and on top of that, they head home after this to face the Eagles next week and then play the Falcons four days later on Thanksgiving night. Despite a 7-1 record, New Orleans has not been dominating as it has outgained opponents just by 14.2 ypg. But that is not going to stop the public from loading up on the Saints especially with a Cincinnati team that the public thinks it is in disarray. The Bengals blew a 21-point lead against Tampa Bay and needed a last second field goal to pull out the win. They will be without A.J. Green for a couple games while the defense is on pace to break NFL records for yardage allowed so there is no way Cincinnati can keep up right. That is why they play the game and this is a big game for the Bengals as they are now a game behind the Steelers and they have a pair of divisional games on deck. The Bengals are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games against teams with a winning road record. Additionally, we play against road teams off a win as a home underdog, with a winning record playing another winning team in the second half of the season. This situation s 40-15 ATS (72.7 percent) since 1983. 10* (256) Cincinnati Bengals