This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Monday Primetime. The Bengals are coming off another tough loss as they fell to the Steelers with turnovers playing a big part in the defeat. The offense remains one of the best in the league as they are No. 7 in Net EPA as the defense has derailed their season but that should not be a big problem tonight. Cincinnati has been the second most unluckiest team in the NFL just ahead of the Jets as seven of its eight losses have been by one possession with six of those against teams in current playoff positions. This has been a favorable spot for the Bengals this season as they are 3-0 ATS as road favorites with those wins coming against the Browns, Giants and Panthers while going 4-0 ATS when coming off a home loss. Dallas has won two straight games following a five-game losing streak and are once again a home underdog after being favored here over the Giants on Thanksgiving. The Cowboys are officially horrible on both sides of the ball as they are No. 29 in Offensive Net EPA and No. 28 in Defensive Net EPA so while the Bengals get the bad rap for its defense, the Cowboys have been just as bad on that side. At least they could keep up with Dak Prescott but with him out, there has been little hope. Cowboys quarterback Cooper Rush is not good and the metrics prove is as of the 37 quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks, he is No. 36 in yards per attempt at just 5.4 and he has had two games of 2.0 and 4.6 ypa. Dallas is 0-4 ATS as a home underdog. Here, we play on road favorites with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 off an upset loss as a home favorite, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 34-9 ATS (79.1 percent) since 1983 with a scoring differential of +11.1 ppg. 10* (143) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Sunday Primetime. We are going back to the well with the Chiefs. We have played against Kansas City seven times this season, a main reason it is usually overpriced and we have gone 4-3 in those games with two of those losses decided in the final seconds and last week was the first instance we backed them and were unable to cover against the Raiders in what was another last second win. The offense was stuck in the bottom half of the league in EPA for the first part of the season but they have steadily moved up and now sit No. 8 in Offensive EPA. They lost their first game of the season at Buffalo three weeks ago and barely got by Carolina and Las Vegas the last two weeks and are now on a 0-6 ATS run which is a streak we love to go the other way. The Chargers knocked off Atlanta last week to make it five wins in their last six games to improve to 8-4 which is good for the top Wild Card spot in the AFC. This series has not been in their favor as they have dropped six straight games against the Chiefs with the majority of those being close defeats, five coming by one possession. That has put the majority of the money on Los Angeles which has knocked this line down from its opening of -5.5. The defense has been the strength this season as the Chargers are No. 4 in Defensive EPA but they have still been outgained in three straight games and we are ready for this Chiefs offense to finally explode and we are expecting a big game from Isiah Pacheco who finally got back into the lineup last week after missing nine consecutive games. 10* (142) Kansas City Chiefs

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Buffalo is still chasing down Kansas City for the No. 1 seed in the AFC after clinching the AFC East last Sunday with a 35-10 win over a banged up San Francisco team in the snow. The Bills improved to 10-2 on the season including 6-0 at home and they have now won seven straight games but are now in a very difficult spot having now scored 30 points or more in their last six games. Along with Philadelphia, Detroit and Green Bay, Buffalo is one of just four teams ranked in the top ten in both Offensive and Defensive EPA and come in No 5 in Net EPA. While there have been blowouts along the way, the Bills are No. 6 in the Luck Ratings so there have been good fortunes as well. The Rams are coming off a win at New Orleans despite getting narrowly outgained to improve to 6-6 and they remain right the mix in the NFC West at 6-6. One game behind Seattle. They are back home where they have dropped two straight following a 3-1 start and it will be up to the defense to slow down the Bills offense and this is a significant game to take with a game at San Francisco on deck for Thursday. The Rams have been hit with the injury bug throughout this season but are as healthy as they have been this season. Here, we play on home underdogs or pickems with a defense allowing 24 or more ppg, after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 32-10 ATS (76.2 percent) since 2020 with a scoring differential of -0.7 ppg. 10* (138) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Month. The season is on the line for Arizona as it sits one game behind Seattle in the AFC West but a loss here essentially puts it three games back due to losing the season series with the Seahawks and no team out of this division is going to gain a Wild Card spot. They lost in Seattle two weeks ago despite winning the yardage battle 298-285 and then lost in Minnesota last week in the final minutes in another game they won the stats by 154 yards. After a slow start, Arizona has outgained its opponents in five straight games and it returns home where it is 4-2, losing to Detroit and Washington which was way back in September. The Cardinals had won four straight games prior to this while allowing only 10 ppg in three home games over this stretch. We are still unsure how Seattle is 7-5 as it pulled off the win over the Jets in a game it should have been beaten badly as the Seahawks were down 21-7 with the Jets driving for a 28-7 lead but a tipped ball turned into a 92-yard interception return for a touchdown resulting in a 14-point swing and the defense did its job the rest of the way. That put Seattle at 4-1 on the road this season with the only loss coming at Detroit and we feel that is part of the lower than expected number even though it has crept up to 3 in some shops. After outgaining their opponents in their first four games, the Seahawks have been outgained in five of their last eight with their last two yardage advantages coming by only 13 yards combined. Four of their seven wins have been by one possession and the Seahawks are now ranked No. 7 in the Luck Ratings following last week. 10* (136) Arizona Cardinals

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. Minnesota is coming off another fortunate win as it rallied late in the fourth quarter with the winning touchdown coming with 1:13 remaining. The Vikings were No. 1 in the Luck Ratings two years ago when they went 13-4 and won the NFC North and their current 10-2 record is a bit skewed as they are No. 2 in the Luck Ratings this season. They are on a five-game winning streak with four of those victories coming by one possession while seven of the 10 wins are by that amount. This is a great sell high spot with the number continuing to climb. Atlanta had the lead in the NFC South but has lost three straight games and is now tied with Tampa Bay at 6-6 with New Orleans lingering two games back. The Falcons opened the season 3-0 on the road but have dropped their last two games on the highway including a 38-6 loss at Denver in their last travel spot. Quarterback Kirk Cousins is coming off his worst game of the season as he tossed four interceptions and has regressed considerably since a great start as he has six interceptions and no touchdowns over his last four games and it will not be any easier here but he has been a gamer in his career going 18-9 ATS when coming off consecutive losses. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a passing defense allowing a comp percentage of 64 percent or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game. This situation is 35-10 ATS (77.8 percent) since 2020 with a scoring differential of 0.0 ppg. 10* (121) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Month. Detroit continues to roll along as it is now 11-1 following a Thanksgiving win over Chicago and the Lions remain home to face another divisional foe. Detroit is now No. 4 in Offensive EPA and No. 1 in Defensive EPA and along with Philadelphia, Buffalo and Green Bay, they are the only teams ranked in the top ten on both sides of the ball. In terms of DVOA, Detroit is No. 1 in Net DVOA and the public will be lining up on their side come Thursday night with the short price. While they are solid all around, they have been a fortunate team as they are tied for No. 4 in the Luck Ratings. Green Bay came through last week in a no sweat win over Miami and the challenge gets tougher. The Packers at 9-3 are in third place in the NFC North which shows how strong this division has been and having already lost to the Lions, a win here gets them right back in it. As mentioned, the Packers are one of only four teams in the top ten on each side of EPA and they come in at No. 5 in Net DVOA. Along with the Eagles, they are the one team that can take down Detroit and despite a 10-point loss in the first meeting, they outgained the Lions 411-261 with a pick six being the difference. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points averaging 6.0 or more yppl, after outgaining opponent by 100 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 35-9 ATS (79.5 percent) since 2020 with a scoring differential of +1.0 ppg. 10* (101) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Monday Primetime. Cleveland is coming off a win over Pittsburgh last Thursday in non-optimal conditions so while this might be considered a letdown similar to after the Baltimore win and losing big to the Chargers, there are other factors saying that will not happen. The Browns were outgained by only 50 yards against the Chargers so the final score was misleading due to a 3-0 turnover disadvantage. Cleveland is just 1-4 on the road but two of those losses were by four points while the loss in New Orleans was decided in the fourth quarter when Tayson Hill went off. Denver is now 7-5 following a 10-point win over the Raiders who we had and should have covered but were denied on their last drive. Of the Broncos seven wins, two have come against the Raiders and another against the Jets while the other four were all against the NFC South where head coach Sean Payton resided so that familiarity cannot be discounted. They have outgained only five opponents, four of those being those four NFC South teams. Quarterback Bo Nix is 5-0 ATS as a favorite this season and we saw a similar run earlier this season with Washington quarterback Jayden Daniels also opening 5-0 ATS in his first five games as a favorite and he has since dropped his last two in that role and we do not think this is a coincidence. Trying to figure out good quarterbacks can be difficult early on but when there is history and film, teams adjust. This game opened at 7.5 and has come down despite 92 percent of the money coming in on the Broncos so this is prime reverse line movement. 10* (483) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the BALTIMORE RAVENS for our NFL Star Attraction. This is the best game of Week 13 with two of the hottest teams squaring off and this line is right where it should be but we could see it come down a tick with 87 percent of the money on Philadelphia. The Eagles have won seven straight games and have taken a 2.5-game lead over Washington in the NFC East but it has come against a pretty cake schedule. Wins over the Commanders and Rams the last two week have been the best wins as they have defeated no other playoff team during this run and now they face a real test and on the road. Overall, Philadelphia has faced a schedule ranked No. 29 in the league. Barkley leads the No. 1 ranked team in Rushing EPA but things will not be easy here against the No. 2 ranked Defensive Rushing EPA. Baltimore is coming off a win over the Chargers following its loss against Pittsburgh and over its recent 8-2 stretch, the only two losses have been within the division. The Ravens are 3-0 against the NFC to move Lamar Jackson to a remarkable 23-1 against the NFC in his career and while some of that can be considered random, it is still impressive. Baltimore brings in the No. 1 overall Offensive EPA as they are No. 1 in passing behind Jackson and No. 2 behind Derrick Henry. He does not have a good matchup but the balance is key here and the home field is a huge advantage. Here, we play against road underdogs or pickems after covering the spread in four out of their last five games, in December games. This situation is 29-8 ATS (78.4 percent) since 2015 with a scoring differential of +8.9 ppg. 10* (480) Baltimore Ravens

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. New Orleans fired head coach Dennis Allen in early November following a loss to Carolina and the Saints responded with a pair of wins over Atlanta and Cleveland. It was a great jump start following a seven-game losing streak but it has been stalled with their bye week and that can be a momentum killer. The Saints are still alive in the NFC South as they are just two games behind Atlanta after having split the season series while still very much alive in the NFC Wild Card. We still think this is a team going nowhere as the offense was carried by Taysom Hill against the Browns while the defense was still bad, allowing 443 yards. Take away games against Carolina where they allowed 193 and 246 yards and New Orleans has allowed 428.9 ypg in their other nine games which would be by far the worst in the league. The Rams are coming off a loss against Philadelphia at home last Sunday night in a game they trailed by just six points late in the third quarter but the Eagles ran off 17 consecutive points culminating by a 72-yard touchdown run from Saquon Barkley. Los Angeles had won four of five games prior to that to get back in the division and at 5-6, it is just one game back of Seattle and Arizona and is 2-1 in the division. These are the games they cannot give away though and they only have one bad loss which was at Chicago. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 in conference games, off a blowout upset win by 21 or more points as an underdog. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) since 2015 with a scoring differential of +5.3 ppg. 10* (477) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our Divisional Game of the Year. Pittsburgh is coming off that snow globe loss in Cleveland to fall to 8-3 and still have a half-game lead in the AFC North with four more divisional games still to play. The Steelers defense has led the way as they are No. 5 in Defensive EPA and they look to get the offense going once again after two poor games although one of those was in awful conditions. They put up 28, 26, 37 and 32 points in their previous four games. This is the game it needs as after this and Cleveland again next week, they face Philadelphia, Baltimore and Kansas City in a span of 11 days. The Steelers are 4-0 straight up as underdogs. Cincinnati has been one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL as they have been unable to overcome an 0-3 start and now sit at 4-7 and while their season is on the line, this is again not a good matchup. The Bengals are just No. 29 in defensive EPA and that has been the issue and basically negated the season Joe Burrow is having as he is narrowly behind Lamar Jackson in QBR. The defense did have a pair of good games in mid-October but those were against Cleveland who had Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Deshaun Watson at quarterback and the Giants. Cincinnati is 0-5 against teams ranked in the Sagarin top ten. Here, we play against home teams with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 30-10 ATS (75 percent) since 2015 with a scoring differential of +5.6 ppg. 10* (465) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. Houston is now 7-5 on the season following a loss to Tennessee at home and while many will be backing the Texans expecting a bounce back against a bad team, we are not sure how good Houston is. The defense has been stout but the offensive has regressed to No. 21 in Net EPA. The Texans have dropped four of their last six games and this is not a big surprise as they went from last place two seasons ago to first place last season and are now doing the typical regression that teams go through when going from last to first. They are 3-3 on the road and have outscored opponents by only 1.5 ppg and are now significant road favorites in a divisional game against a team looking to wreck their season. Jacksonville is coming off its bye week following a 52-6 thrashing at Detroit, the second straight game it has been held to single digits. The Jaguars will get quarterback Trevor Lawrence back this week after missing those last two games so at least the offense will have a pulse once again. He had that one bad game against the Eagles but prior to that, he had five straight games with a passer rating of 89 or higher including three of 104.7, 121.5 and 119.5. The defense has been the concern but playing at home against a regressing offense is not a bad thing. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points outscored by five or more ppg in the first half, after scoring nine points or less in two straight games. This situation is 38-13 ATS (74.5 percent) since 1983 with a scoring differential of +1.1 ppg. 10* (470) Jacksonville Jaguars

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. No one wants any part of the Jets right now as they have lost two straight games following a win against Houston which snapped a five-game losing streak. They are coming off their bye week at the right time and while it has obviously been a lost season for New York, this is a team that will continue to fight following the firing of their GM. The offense has not come close to living up to expectations and that is all on Aaron Rodgers but they are still a respectable No. 17 in Offensive EPA while on the other side they are No. 18 in Defensive EPA, not horrible rankings for a team that is 3-8. New York does not turn the ball over but the defense only has eight takeaways and that has been the problem. The Jets have been unfortunate as they are No. 31 in the Luck Ratings. Seattle is coming off a pair of upset wins as it defeated San Francisco on the road and Arizona at home last week which put a temporary halt on a 1-5 run. The Seahawks are back over .500 and tied with the Cardinals for first place in the NFC West with the 49ers and Rams just a game back so it is wide open which makes this game a big one. This is a big reason why 88 percent of the money is on the Seahawks yet the line has moved the other way. Seattle is average on both sides like New York and its Net EPA ranking of No. 17 is just one spot ahead of the Jets. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing six points or less last game going up against an opponent after a loss by three or less points. This situation is 38-12 ATS (76 percent) since 1983 with a scoring differential of +6.3 ppg. 10* (474) New York Jets

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Month. We have played against Kansas City seven times this season, a main reason it is usually overpriced and we have gone 4-3 in those games with two of those losses decided in the final seconds. We have yet to play on them and at this price we normally would not but this is the situation for the Chiefs to do what they are capable of. The offense was stuck in the bottom half of the league in EPA for the first part of the season but they have steadily moved up and now sit No. 8 in Offensive EPA. They lost their first game of the season at Buffalo two weeks ago and barely got by Carolina last week and are now on a 0-5 ATS run which is a streak we love to go the other way. The Raiders have lost seven straight games including three straight double-digit losses including both on the road against Cincinnati and Miami. They are 1-5 on the highway this season which makes their win over Baltimore back in September that much more surprising but times have changed and now they are getting their first double-digit number of the season. They remain No. 32 in Offensive EPA and will turn to Aidan O'Connell to make the start at quarterback and his career QB rating of just over 80 in 15 games including 12 starts. The Kansas City defense has not been good the last two games but they are back home where they allow 19.3 ppg in five games and this opponent is the worst of the bunch. This is atypical for us to lay but this is the time and situation to do so. 10* (314) Kansas City Chiefs

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS NFL Thursday Primetime. This is a great spot for Green Bay as it has won two straight games and six of its last seven to move to 8-3 which puts it two games behind Detroit in the NFC North with one meeting remaining. That game is up next which makes this game even bigger as sitting potentially three games behind Detroit with already a loss to the Lions will likely end their chances. The offense is No. 9 in Offensive EPA and is coming off a season-high 38 points against San Francisco last week. The defense has been slightly better as the Packers are No. 8 in Defensive EPA and as mentioned in the Lions analysis, only four teams are ranked in the top ten in both Offensive and Defensive EPA and Green Bay is one of those. This is an excellent situational travel spot as well. Miami is getting a lot of buzz now after posting three straight wins but the last two were at home against non-playoff teams Las Vegas and New England. The return of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has sparked the offense as the Dolphins have put up 27 points in four of his five games since he came back. Now they have to travel to Green Bay where it is expected to be frigid and Tua is 0-4 in his career in games under 40 degrees, covering just one of those. Green Bay has the rushing edge by a significant amount which can factor in big in the cold weather. The Thanksgiving favorite angle has been a thing and this is one of the spots we like with the nighttime favorite going 13-4 ATS since the inception. 10* (310) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our NFL Thursday Enforcer. Detroit remains atop the power rankings following its ninth straight win, a 24-6 win over Indianapolis which was the second straight game allowing just six points. Now it is back within the division as the Lions host the Bears before a pair of big games against Green Bay and Buffalo on deck. Detroit is No. 3 in Offensive EPA and No. 2 in Defensive EPA and along with Philadelphia, Buffalo and Green Bay, they are the only teams ranked in the top ten on both sides of the ball. While they are solid all around, they have been a fortunate team as they are No. 5 in the Luck Ratings. Despite 81 percent of the money on the Lions, the line has come down from the 11.5 opener. Chicago is on a five-game losing streak but three of those were within a possession thanks to a defense that has kept them competitive. The Bears are No. 9 in Defensive EPA thanks to the passing defense that is No. 7 in EPA. They will have to deal with the Lions strong rushing game and this could be one of the final few games that we see them put out a full effort as an eighth loss could signal the end of any playoff aspiration. The offense has been a different story as they are No. 22 in EPA but quarterback Caleb Williams is coming his best game in over a month. Chicago has been on the opposite end of fortunate as it is ranked No. 30 in the Luck Ratings. While public favorites have dominated on Thanksgiving, we are not buying that in this spot. 10* (305) Chicago Bears

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Star Attraction. We have a false favorite situation here with Baltimore being overvalued coming off a loss against the Steelers where the defense was actually pretty good. The Ravens allowed six field goals and held Pittsburgh to 303 total yards and are still a game behind them in the AFC North after the Steelers loss on Thursday. The bend do not break defense is still No. 21 in Defensive EPA including No. 28 against the pass and have a tougher matchup this week. The Chargers are right in the middle of the league in Offensive EPA at No. 15 and they have generated now four of their highest offensive outputs in their last six games. While Lamar Jackson has been playing at a high level, the same can be said for Justin Herbert who has a career high 102.1 passer rating even though he has just 13 touchdowns as he is not turning the ball over. While the Ravens defense has been their crutch, the Chargers defense remains solid as they are No. 4 in Net EPA and this will be the second straight game for Baltimore to face a top six defense. They are still top in the NFL in Offensive Net EPA but this is a horrible spot coming off a physical divisional game and now heading out west in what cannot be a better Jim Harbaugh situation, 10* (274) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the LAS VEGAS RAIDERS for our Divisional Game of the Year. Denver is coming off a blowout win over Atlanta and if the season ended today, the Broncos would be in the playoffs behind rookie quarterback Bo Nix. He started his rookie season slow but he has been great in his last two games and one of those was against the Chiefs. He has another great matchup here but we are playing the numbers and the situation as they are now favored by their biggest number against a team not named Carolina. Denver is still just No. 22 in Offensive EPA so the matchup is not as great as the recent result may suggest. The Raiders have now lost six straight games and are back home following a pair of road losses at Cincinnati and Miami. They held their own in their last home game against Kansas City where they were getting 8.5 points and are now just getting less than a field goal against Denver. The stats suggest a rout but we do not see it in this spot. This game sets up so similar to our play on the Bears last week as this line opened up right around a field goal and shot up shortly after the results from Sunday so this is the overreaction line that we love to go against in a divisional game, especially getting more than that field goal at home. The Broncos were getting 92 percent of the money on Thursday and it has come down to 76 percent 24 hours later and the line has not moved back down. 10* (266) Las Vegas Raiders

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Detroit has moved into the top spot in most power ratings following their eighth straight win to move to 9-1 and the Lions could easily be 10-0 as in their loss against the Buccaneers, they outgained Tampa Bay 463-216. They rolled over Jacksonville last Sunday 52-6 while putting up 645 yards of offense which broke a franchise record so no one wants to get in front of this train right. We are the exception. That was the cakewalk Detroit needed following a pair of tough road wins over Green Bay and Houston and now they are back on the road with a Thanksgiving home game upcoming against the Bears. With the Lions rout, since 2003 teams that are coming off a win by five or more touchdowns and then favored by more than a field goal in their next game are 23-37 (38.3 percent). The Colts are coming off a come-from-behind win over the Jets after blowing a 13-0 lead with quarterback Anthony Richardson posting one of his best passer ratings on the season. Indianapolis is back home for just the third time since the start of October and at 5-6, it is very much alive in the AFC Wild Card. The defense has gotten a bad rap but they are ranked No. 11 in Defensive EPA and this with playing the No. 5 ranked schedule in the NFL. The Colts have covered 10 straight games against teams that have a winning percentage over .750 while going 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games as home underdogs of six or more points. 10* (252) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. As bad as the Patriots were expected to be this season, they continue to compete and play hard for head coach Jerod Mayo. They have gone 2-2 over their last four games with the two losses coming by only nine points combined and are now catching over a touchdown in a divisional game. Their season is going nowhere as far as playoffs but it is all about development. They made the move to put rookie Drake Maye in at quarterback and while he has shown his rookie mistakes, he has actually been very solid by showing a lot of poise and game management skills while posting an 87.5 passer rating. While not top level yet, his 66.7 percent completion rate is No. 15 in the league. While we are backing the Patriots for what they have been doing, this is also a fade of Miami which we feel are still overvalued after their two straight wins and three straight covers. The Dolphins are coming off a 15-point win over the Raiders but it was a five-point game late in the fourth quarter until they were able to open it up on a 57-yard touchdown pass. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa missed four games so that has to be taken into consideration but he has not improved the offense that much in his four games since his return as the Dolphins are averaging 17.7 yards per point which is ahead of only the Giants. Miami has covered eight straight games in this series, just another reason to fade in this spot. 10* (261) New England Patriots

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Month. The Browns did not come through for us last Sunday as a 14-14 tie was opened up in the fourth quarter with 21 unanswered points from the Saints with Taysom Hill nearly taking the game over himself. Cleveland was coming off a bye week following a home loss against the Chargers, one of the top defenses in the league but the Browns could not take advantage facing one of the worst defenses despite Jameis Winston throwing for 395 yards but they could not get the balance as they rushed for only 66 yards. It will not be easier here but the spot is a great one as it is basically the same one Pittsburgh was in last week. Cleveland has some skewed metrics on offense based on their quarterback change and the return of running back Nick Chubb but we love the home advantage with the value on a team that is ranked No. 30 in the Luck Ratings. The Steelers were able to cash for us last week against Baltimore as they pulled off the upset with an 18-16 win, kicking six field goals against one of the worst defenses at home. Now they hit the road where they are also 4-1 but in a spot where they are overvalued in a divisional game coming off a massive win to set up the short week letdown. The Pittsburgh offense was very average again last week barely eclipsing 300 yards and face a tougher defense this week on the road with the season on the line for the Browns. While Cleveland has been unlucky, the Steelers are ranked No. 3 in the Luck Ratings and despite 90 percent of the money coming in on the Steelers, the line has not moved. 10* (112) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. Do we go public or do we go contrarian? The Cowboys are done this season obviously and no one wants a part of them after four straight losses and four straight non-covers and this is the time to jump on board in this stand alone game. Dallas is catching a touchdown and it should get to 7.5 as the juice is moving with the public going to hammer Houston with no Dak Prescott playing. We have seen a 9.5-point line swing and no quarterback is worth that, especially against a team that continues to be overhyped. Houston has dropped two straight games to fall to 6-4 following a 26-23 loss against Detroit and while it is a desperate team at this point, no six-win team should be laying this number on one the road. C.J. Stroud was the story of last season but he has regressed considerably, as he has tossed more interceptions already than he threw all of last season and has posted one passer rating of more that 64.2 in his last four games. He is facing a defense that has struggled all season but he is not with this number. We are not sure what will happen with head coach Mike McCarthy but chances are he will not be let go until the end of the season and apparently the locker room is still behind him despite media reports. We would love to wait and take them on Thanksgiving against the Giants but we have to grab them here before they go to Washington next week. This is the ugly play but we will go against the public money against a team that is just No. 14 in Net EPA. 10* (476) Dallas Cowboys

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. Everybody is waiting for Cincinnati to turn the corner but we just do not see it happening. Teams starting 0-3 and rarely make the playoffs happens for a reason because there are flaws and the Bengals have many. Quarterback Joe Burrow is playing at an elite level with a 108.1 passer rating thanks to throwing 24 touchdowns and just four interceptions which has put Cincinnati No. 4 in Offensive Passing EPA. They cannot run the ball as they are No. 29 in rushing offense and No. 26 in Rushing EPA and a one dimensional offense will not get it done here. They face one of the best defenses in the NFL as the Chargers are No. 2 in Defensive EPA including No. 2 against the pass and No. 3 against the run. They lead the league in points allowed at 13.1 ppg. Another flaw is the Bengals defense which has been a liability all season. They are ranked No. 28 in Defensive EPA and have been horrible against the run and pass and have had only two good efforts while came against Deshaun Watson and Daniel Jones and those two make any bad defense look good. The Chargers are right in the middle of the league in Offensive EPA and they have generated their three highest offensive outputs in their last five games. While Burrow has been playing at a high level, the same can be said for Justin Herbert who has a career high 103.2 passer rating even though he has just 11 touchdowns as he is not turning the ball over. 10* (472) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Star Attraction. Revenge is an angle we like to play in certain situations but we are not playing Buffalo because of that here. The Bills lost in the playoffs last season 27-24 so all of the talk is that the Bills will be out for revenge. If Buffalo had won that playoff game, would they play any less hard this week? We know the answer to that. Despite the records, Buffalo is the better team when looking at the numbers and not the wins and that is what matters. The Bills are ranked No. 3 in Offensive EPA and while they will be down Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid, they still have Josh Allen and a running game that is ranked No. 2 in Rushing EPA. Kansas City moved to 9-0 after a 16-14 win over Denver thanks to a last second blocked field goal. This has been the story of the Chiefs all season as seven of their nine wins have been decided by single digits and they have been the beneficiary of some questionable calls going their way. We are not crying conspiracy but being the No. 1 ranked team in Luck Ratings does say something. The Chiefs have failed to cover three straight games, all of which they were favored by at least a touchdown and now the role is reversed and for very good reason. This is part of the reason 60 percent of the money is on Kansas City and while we know the numbers of how good Kansas City is an underdog, covering 17 of its last 18 games when getting points, we are going against that this week. 10* (470) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Month. The advanced line was Green Bay -2.5 and following the Chicago disaster against New England on Sunday, the line moved up to 6 and then hit 6.5 and as of Wednesday, it came back down to 5.5 despite 69 percent of the money on the Packers and is still 5.5 despite the money moving to 72 percent on Friday. Caleb Williams was awful against the Patriots as he was constantly under pressure, went 16-30 for 120 yards and was sacked nine times. This was in large part due to both starting tackles being out. Both Darnell Wright and Braxton Jones returned to practice on Wednesday and were full participants on Friday. Unlike what many may think, this is not the worst offense in the NFL as the Bears are No. 24 in Offensive EPA, certainly not great but not what the theory is. The fact that offensive coordinator Shane Waldron was fired can give this offense a spark as well. The Packers are coming off their bye following a loss to the Lions where Jordan Love was hampered by a groin injury so the rest is big for that but he could still not be 100 percent. Overall, the Packers are No. 14 in Offensive EPA which is nothing spectacular and they will face an underrated Bears defense. Chicago is No. 5 in Defensive EPA including No. 1 in the NFL in Passing EPA. This is an overreaction line and we are going against it and we still have this number at 3 and in a divisional game, we will grab the big home underdog. 10* (452) Chicago Bears

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. New Orleans put together its best effort since September 15 when it beat Dallas 44-19 but even that win is not looking good anymore as the Saints defeated division rival Atlanta 20-17 last week. It coincided with the firing of head coach Dennis Allen as the players rose to the occasion which is a typical reaction when a coach gets let go. We figure that is where it ends however. Even though they defeated the Falcons, the Saints were outgained 468-365 and that was their second most yards allowed and this comes as no surprise as the unit has been horrible, allowing 385.6 ypg which is No. 28 in the NFL. Take away games against Carolina where they allowed 193 and 246 yards and New Orleans has allowed 427.1 ypg in their other eight games which would be by far the worst in the league. Cleveland certainly does not bring a potent offense into this one but Jameis Winston gave them some life in his first start against Baltimore which also has one of the worst defenses in the league. Sure, he struggled mightily in his next start but that was against the Chargers which are ranked No. 2 in Defensive EPA so we expect another big game from him as well as running back Nick Chubb as he faces the No. 31 ranked team in Defensive Rushing EPA. Defensively, Cleveland is no where near where they were last season but we like them against the Saints offense that is averaging 17 ppg in their last eight games. 10* (453) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. The Steelers are atop the AFC North at 7-2 and admittedly, have not played a tough schedule in doing so as it is ranked No. 29 but good teams with those games and Pittsburgh has done just that. Even with the schedule disparity, we have this one as a pickem. This is the classic game of strength against strength as Baltimore is ranked No. 1 in Offensive EPA but has had a lot of success against some poor defenses and while the Ravens did tear apart a very strong Denver defense, that was at home in the first game following their loss against the Browns. They now face a Steelers defense that is No. 7 in Defensive EPA and they have allowed 20 points or less in seven of their nine games. They did allow 27 points against Indianapolis and Washington but those were both away from home. The Pittsburgh offense was not horrible with Justin Fields at quarterback and overall it is No. 13 in Offensive EPA but it has made a big surge with Russell Wilson. They have averaged 30.3 ppg in his three starts and he has posted a 105.9 passer rating and while it is a small sample size, it is his highest rating since 2019-20. While we will not quite call the Steelers offense a strength, they are going against one of the worst defenses in Baltimore which would normally be an oxymoron but not this season as the Ravens are No. 27 in Defensive EPA. We grab the very favorable line in what we think is the better all around team. 10* (458) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Primetime Dominator. Washington has been the early pleasant surprise as they are 7-3 but it has been an inconsistent stretch, beating the Bears on the Hail Mary, sneaking by the Giants and then losing to Pittsburgh last week. Their best win is against Arizona and has not defeated another team with a winning record. Maybe it took some time for teams to figure them out but now comes another test like they had in Baltimore. The Eagles got off to a slow start but have won five straight games to improve to 7-2 with one of those losses coming against Atlanta with 34 seconds remaining. Now back home following a blowout win over Dallas on the road, this is just their second home game since mid-October. The Washington offense is still ranked No. 2 in Offensive EPA including No. 2 in Dropback Rate but just No. 7 in Dropback success rate. All good still but the defense is the concern as the Commanders have been exposed against above average offenses. They are No. 24 in Defensive EPA and that is with allowing point totals of 15, 7, 13, 14 and 18. Four of those came against the Giants, Browns, Panthers and Bears, all of which are No. 23 or worse in offense. The one exception was against Arizona which is top ten and now comes a test against the Eagles which have completely turned their offense around since getting healthy. They have averaged 31.8 ppg over their last four games and despite all the big names on the injury list, all have been full participants in practice. 10* (314) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. The Rams picked up another huge win last week over Seattle and this is a team to be on the lookout for as we said last week. With the Cardinals and 49ers winning Sunday, this game is big to keep pace in the NFC West. They are 4-4 in a wide open division and that record could be a lot better, despite playing a few weeks with some of their top players on the injury list. Three of their four losses were games they were in, losing to the Lions, Bears and Packers by six, six and five points but bring in the momentum with three straight wins and having arguably the hottest quarterback in the league. The Dolphins had their chance last week against Buffalo but found another way to lose to drop to 2-6 and the season is likely done. With the Bills winning again, Miami is five games back in the AFC East and the Wild Card situation is bleak. The return of Tua Tagovailoa has brought the offense back up with 27 points scored the last two weeks but the defense has regressed, now sitting No. 28 in Defensive DVOA. Now facing a healthy Rams offense, we give them no shot on the road. 10* (286) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Star Attraction. We won with the Buccaneers last week at Kansas City as they were able to stay within the number in an overtime loss, their third straight. This is the spot to fade as Tampa Bay is playing on a short week against a team off a bye and bringing their best player back. Give credit to Baker Mayfield who has posted a 94 passer rating or higher in his last five games, the last two with a limited receiving corps but now faces a real defense that has been undervalued. San Francisco is just 4-4 but easily the best .500 team in football as they are ranked No. 5, ahead of seven teams with six or more wins. The premier of Christian McCaffery is finally here and the way they are bringing him in now is smart and he can be a game changer. They are top seven in both Offensive and Defensive DVOA and still have a shot for the No. 1 spot in what is a weak NFC. We do not prefer to lay a big number on the road but this the exception. 10* (273) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. The Ravens bounced back from their loss against the Browns with a rollover against Denver and are laying a huge number in a divisional game. They were the spot last week but are now in the opposite position this week with the number. Baltimore remains No. 2 in Net DVOA with the offense that is No. 1 but have to be concerned about the defense that is No. 14 in DVOA, one of only two teams in the NFL that is top ten overall but outside the top ten in defense. The Bengals opened the season with a bad loss against New England which started a 0-3 start but they have won three of their last four games to remain in the playoff hunt in the AFC. Cincinnati is only a game out of the final Wild Card spot along with three other teams and this is the game it needs with two of the next three on the road as well. All of the MVP talk is around Lamar Jackson but Joe Borrow has been quietly under the radar with a 108.1 passer rating which is third in the league thanks to 20 touchdowns which is tied foe second. We played against Baltimore two weeks ago against Cleveland which was a stupid line and we have another one here. 10* (109) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. Kansas City is the only remaining undefeated team in the NFL at 7-0 and it has now won 13 straight games going back to last season but it has been far from a domination as the Chiefs have outgained their opponents by only 45 ypg over this stretch. It is hard to step in front of an undefeated train but we have to here as the number has gotten to the price of being unplayable if you are a Chiefs backer as they came into the week the No. 1 ranked team in the Luck Ratings. It is hard for a team to win by margin when they are ranked only No. 10 in both Offensive DVOA and Offensive EPA as Patrick Mahomes has done just enough to get by with his 84.9 passer rating coming in tenth lowest among qualified starters and it is the lowest of his career. Additionally, he is one of only four quarterbacks in this group that has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns. His 23 interceptions in the regular season since the start of last year are the most of any quarterback in the NFL. Tampa Bay suffered a pair of devastating losses two weeks ago with wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin going out against Baltimore and both missed last week in the loss against Atlanta. They nearly made it back from a big deficit against the Falcons but were unable to connect on the winning score in the final seconds. While the offense is shorthanded, it is the defense that has brought this team success as the Buccaneers have allowed 27 points or less in 28 straight games, the longest streak in the NFL in nearly 20 years since Baltimore did so back in 2005. Defenses keeping opponents at bay are obviously huge with the success but even more so when getting a big number like this. We are also seeing a reverse line move with 86 percent of the money on Kansas City yet the number has gone the other way. 10* (477) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. Minnesota was the early season surprise in the league as it opened 5-0 straight up and against the number but has dropped its last two games, blowing a 10-0 lead to Detroit and losing to the Rams last Thursday night 30-20. The extended rest is big for the Vikings which need to win to keep pace in the NFC North with Detroit and Green Bay which square off earlier in the day. This is a good get right spot as it has been a month since their first win and have not won at home since September 22, a 34-7 win over Houston. The one concern is that the Vikings have been outgained in five straight games but three of those were a combined 31 yards so that is a skewed streak. One thing that is certain is the defense remains one of the best in the NFL, ranked No. 1 in Defensive DVOA and No. 3 in Defensive EPA. This line has come down since opening at 6.5 with a lot of that likely due to quarterback Anthony Richardson getting benched in favor of Joe Flacco and this was the smart move with Richardson possessing the worst quarterback rating in the NFL. Flacco has been solid with seven touchdowns and just one interception in his three games played but has had only one truly good all around game and that was against Jacksonville, the worst defense in the league in both DVOA and EPA. The Colts are 17 spots lower than Minnesota in Net DVOA and are walking into a tough spot and while they will be a public take based on their 6-0 ATS run, we are bucking that and going contrarian against that run as well as fading a defense that has allowed 25.7 ppg in their last three road games. 10* (466) Minnesota Vikings

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our Divisional Game of the Year. The Rams came through for us last Thursday with a 30-20 upset win over Minnesota and this is a team to be on the look out for. The previous week, they picked up a non-cover win over the Raiders to snap a two-game losing streak and any trade talk that was brought up two weeks ago is long gone. They are 3-4 in a wide open NFC West and that record could be a lot better, despite playing a few weeks with some of their top players on the injury list. Three of their four losses were games they were in, losing to the Lions, Bears and Packers by six, six and five points and it all came together last week against a very good Minnesota team. The line is not ideal in a divisional game but we have this game at a pickem where it essential is as of Friday so a win gets us a push at worst. The Seahawks have been a tough team to figure out as they have lost four of their last five games after a blowout loss at home against Buffalo last week. The lone victory came at Atlanta and despite the 20-point win, they were outgained 385-399 in that game as the Seahawks have been outgained in four straight games after winning the yardage battle in their first four games which helped them get off to a 3-0 start that seems like eons ago. What does Seattle do good? Nothing in particular as it is ranked between No. 15 and No. 29 in every DVOA and EPA category and it catches the Rams at the wrong time coming off extended rest. What used to be one of the top three home field advantages in the NFL is no more and the Rams continue their turnaround here. 10* (471) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Star Attraction. Detroit moved to 6-1 following a blowout win over Tennessee last Sunday thanks to its special teams which cannot be counted on every week. The Lions put up only 245 yards of offense because it was not needed as they played with the game flow and it was a solid win coming off a huge victory over the Vikings. Riding a five-game winning streak, the Lions now hit the road for their true outdoor environment game of the season and of course come in as the favorite. Detroit is ranked in the top ten in all DVOA and EPA categories but they have played a schedule ranked No. 22 in the league and while we are not saying this team is not good, we feel they have become the new public betting team and we are seeing that here with 61 percent of the early money coming in. The Packers survived Jacksonville last week as they kicked a 24-yard field goal as time expired to pull out the 30-27 win to make it four straight victories. They did suffer a loss with quarterback Jordan Love having to leave the game with a groin injury and while his status remains questionable, he made it back to practice on Thursday and all signs are that he will be playing. He was playing his worst game of the season prior to that but came in with a 95 or higher passer rating in his previous three games. Malik Willis has shown to be a very capable backup so there is value either way. When the Packers are .500 or better, they have covered seven straight games as underdogs when facing teams with a winning percentage of .750 or better and this is the spot to show they belong. With a bye week on deck, this is the opportunity to move into first place in the NFC North. 10* (474) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. Tennessee is coming off a blowout loss at Detroit and while we cannot call it a misleading final, the Titans defense did its job once again as it held the Lions to a season low 225 total yards. Their offense was a liability again as they committed four turnovers but the positive was that they moved the ball with 416 total yards but they were in a no win situation especially when the special teams unit allowed 262 yards. They are back home where they are 0-3 while failing to cover any of their last three games which puts them in the contrarian play on spot. Tennessee remains No. 1 in total defense as it has now held five of its seven opponents to season-low yardage and in comes one of the worst offenses in the NFL off its biggest win of the season. The Patriots took out the rival Jets with a final minute touchdown which snapped a six-game losing streak following a season opening fluke win at Cincinnati. New England scored a season-high 25 points despite gaining only 224 yards on the offensive end and the quarterback situation remains in flux after Drake Maye having to leave the game last week with a concussion and he has been limited in practice this week. The injury report is massive on the defensive side and they just traded linebacker Joshua Uche to Kansas City further depleting the unit. The Patriots have been outgained in their last seven games and are currently No. 31 in Net DVOA and No. 28 in Net EPA as they are ranked No. 25 or worse in every DVOA and EPA category on both sides. 10* (452) Tennessee Titans

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. We won with the Browns last week as they defeated the Ravens outright which we were not expecting but it was a wire-to-wire cover and that huge divisional win presents a go against opportunity as it is a letdown spot. While there might be some positive hope, the Browns are still just 2-6 with one of the worst offenses in the NFL although it is a different unit now with Deshawn Watson finally out. Quarterback Jameis Winston gave the lifeless offense a spark as he threw for 334 yards with three touchdowns and no interception. While facing the Baltimore defense normally would have been a tough task, the Ravens defense is not good this season and now Cleveland faces a Chargers defense ranked No. 2 in Defensive EPA and No. 8 in Defensive DVOA. The Chargers are coming off a win over the floundering Saints, bouncing back from a last second loss against the Cardinals. Of note, quarterback Justin Herbert looks to be fully recovered from his ankle injury and he has been given more of a green light as he has thrown the ball 34, 39 and 32 times his last three games, all season highs, and he has quietly put up a 98.2 passer rating thanks to throwing only one interception. Los Angeles has not been great on offense as a whole as it is No. 18 in DVOA and No. 22 in EPA but have had their top three performances in their last three games which coincides with Herbert airing it out more. The Browns used their defense to carry them into the playoffs last season but are a bottom half unit this season. 10* (453) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Thursday Dominator. While no one wants to bet the Jets now or anytime in the near future, we have to go against the philosophy this week with what is happening in the market. New York opened as the favorite by a point and a half and despite 82 percent of the money on Houston as of Tuesday night, the line has not moved at some spots and gone up to -2 at some others. The nonmovement or slight move up despite the money differential is telling while some of it could do with the loss of wide receiver Stefon Diggs for this game and unfortunately for Houston, the rest of the season. The Texans may be 6-2 but they are a weak 6-2 and now without their top two receivers, they are in a vulnerable public spot Thursday. The Jets season keeps getting worse following a last minute loss to the Patriots, dropping them to 2-6. The thing is, they could be 6-2 as four of their five losses during this losing streak have come down to the final minute with quarterback Aaron Rodgers not executing late in three of those. The defense is just as much to blame and they too have failed late so it has been a culmination of poor timing along with bad special teams. This should not happen to supposed good teams but their No. 16 Net EPA is right in line with the No. 14 Net EPA for Houston. We do take into account luck at this point in the season and this game has the biggest disparity of all of them this week as the Texas are the second luckiest team in the league while the Jets are the unluckiest team in the NFL so while the records are four games apart, they could easily be a lot closer. 10* (312) New York Jets

This is a play on the NEW YORK GIANTS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. The Giants offense has not been good to begin with but last week was a forgettable performance as they managed only 119 total yards in their 28-3 loss to the Eagles. They have scored 10 points in their last two games combined and now hit the road to face a notoriously strong defense with a quarterback that is 1-14 in his career in primetime games. That being said, this is all being taken into account with this number and hitting the road is not necessarily a bad thing for New York as it is 2-1 with the lone loss coming against Washington by just three points. One key factor is to get Malik Nabers more involved as he was limited to just four catches last week and he will be defended by cornerback Joey Porter Jr. who has surrendered 17 receptions for 218 yards and a touchdown thus far this season, according to Pro Football Focus. The Steelers are now 5-2 coming off their blowout win over the Jets as the switch to Russell Wilson at quarterback did not affect the offense. He was solid in his debut but the Steelers will be out to run the ball as Pittsburgh comes into this game with 235 rush attempts on the year, the second-most in the NFL. Even with Wilson starting at QB and throwing for 264 yards last week, the Steelers still ran the ball 36 times for 149 yards and two touchdowns. The Giants were gashed against the run last week against the Eagles but prior to that, they allowed more than 121 rushing yards in five of their first six games. in what is expected to be a low scoring game with a total set at 36, grabbing the value on the underdog is the play. 10* (291) New York Giants

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. The 49ers took another hit last week as the injury list continues to grow with wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk now out for the season following a 28-18 loss against Kansas City. At 3-4, San Francisco typically would be a team on the outside looking in but its division is wide open and a wake up call might have gotten taken on Thursday night with the big Rams win, a now healthy team they have already lost to. While we mentioned Philadelphia, which is 4-2, being the only team in the league in top ten in both total offense and defense, the 49ers are the only team with a losing record ranked in the top ten in every DVOA category while sitting No. 10 in Net EPA. No team has started 3-5 to make a Super Bowl and while not a must win, this will be a costly loss. Dallas is coming off its bye week after getting dismantled by the Lions in a 47-9 loss. Admittedly, their season is on the line as well and who really cares as it should not even be a story with the Cowboys being No. 23 or worse in seven of eight DVOA and EPA rankings. Overall, Dallas is No. 27 in Net EPA and No. 23 in Net DVOA. We are seeing the RLM here with this line coming down despite the early money on the Cowboys with the bye week being a possible rationale for favoring the Dallas side which we cannot buy into. While we do not take history too much into play, there is bad recent history here for the Cowboys which have lost the last three meetings with a lot of the same rosters since 2022 and it is the 49ers defense that has dominated with the Cowboys averaging only 262 ypg. 10* (290) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the LAS VEGAS RAIDERS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. Kansas City remains the lone undefeated team in the NFL following a 28-18 win over San Francisco where the 49ers were severely shorthanded once again. The Chiefs have covered their last four games and are overpriced here with the public being all over them in this spot. They retain the No. 1 spot in the Luck Rankings and we are going against them with some of it based on that as it will eventually come back to show their flaws. One of those is quarterback Patrick Mahomes who is having the season of his career with an 82.5 passer rating and has failed to throw a touchdown in two straight games and now has a 6:8 TD:INT ratio. He got a weapon he wanted with DeAndre Hopkins and despite this, we have seen the line come down despite Kansas City carrying over 60 percent of the early money. Las Vegas is coming off a loss against a beaten up Rams team at the time and that was its third straight loss. And now wide receiver Davante Adams is gone but he was out for a while anyway and it is safe to say he was part of the internal problem and it is better that he is gone. The Raiders are bottom four in the NFL in Offensive and Defensive DVOA but this is the spot to play them in a divisional game with an overreaction number against a team coming off an emotional win where they did not look good. The Raiders can take advantage of the Chiefs defense that has struggled against tight ends all season and Brock Bowers who has been targeted 36 times the last three games to have another big effort this week. It is ugly but it is the right side. 10* (286) Las Vegas Raiders

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Month. Ah Cleveland. There have been a number of disappointments in the league this season and the Browns are on the list but now we have a different team coming into this week. We never look for an injury to help a team but this is a different situation with Deshaun Watson now out for the season and it can only help this team. The Browns have lost five straight games following a 1-1 start and are the only team in the NFL to score 18 or fewer points in all of their games. The Browns are No. 32 in Offensive DVOA and No. 30 in Offensive EPA yet we are on that offense with Jameis Winston taking over which will open up this unit despite no more Amari Cooper. Running back Nick Chubb came back last week and while he looked not his normal self, that was expected after missing a year and now he has to be taken into account by a defense that has not been very good. The Ravens are ranked No. 27 in Defensive EPA and No. 13 in Defensive DVOA and while the latter is better, it is taking into account teams coming from behind and failing. Baltimore has turned its season around after a 0-2 start as the Ravens have won five straight games while not losing a cover over this stretch. The offense has not been able to be stopped as they lead the league overall and in rushing as the Derrick Henry signing has been the best offseason move from any team. The run they are on in non-sustainable and this is the time to go against them, coming off a short week and playing on the road again, this one against a desperate division rival with a line that has been stretch out to the max. 10* (266) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. This is a tough spot for Arizona which is coming off a last second win over the Chargers on Monday night to move to 3-4. The Cardinals defense held Los Angeles to five field goals so while that may say something for the defense, it was more of a portrayal of the anemic Chargers offense as Arizona is still ranked No. 26 in Defensive DVOA and No. 29 in Defensive EPA. Granted, the Cardinals have played the toughest schedule in the NFL and while now facing a 2-4 team, this will be a different looking 2-4 team and they have to travel east on a short week to play in the early time slot. While quarterback Kyler Murray has shown flashes, he has only two games with a passer rating of more than 80 in his last five games. Miami scored 20 points in its opener against Jacksonville but has failed to get past 15 points in any of its last five games. The main cause is the Dolphins lost quarterback Tua Tagovailoa in Game Two against Buffalo and he has been out since then with another concussion but he will return to action this week. We can only hope he has a safe return back as he looks to be risking a lot but he is hellbent on returning to the game he loves. Even though he put up only 20 points against the Jaguars, he put up 338 yards through the air and he completely changes the dynamic of this offense. His return coming at home is going to have this team energized and we should see the Dolphins of old who should have no issues having their best game of the season. Miami has gone 7-1 ATS in its last eight home games against teams coming off a Monday night home game. 10* (272) Miami Dolphins

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our Divisional Game of the Year. Sometimes betting a team when it is down is the way to go and this is one of those spots. Tampa Bay jumped out to a 10-0 lead against Baltimore last Monday and then it all caved in when wide receiver Mike Evans went out with a hamstring injury and the end of the game was more devastating when fellow receiver Chris Godwin was lost for the season. The only good out of this is that the Buccaneers have had a full week to get ready with a new set of pass catchers and while put him down as much as you want but Baker Mayfield is great in this system and can adjust. The overreaction is on our side as this line has flipped with the Buccaneers opening as a typical 2.5-point divisional favorite and now they are the underdog of the same number and this will hit three. The Falcons came into the season as the favorite to win the NFC South and while they are on pace and arguably in better position now, this is still not an overly good team. Quarterback Kirk Cousins has given the offense life while breaking the franchise record in passing yards three weeks ago and then following it up with a good performance against a bad Carolina team and then was not good last week against the Seahawks. The Falcons are stepping into a vulnerable situation playing a team that everyone has given up on while playing only their second road game in five weeks, the lone exception being that Panthers game. Take a team when they are down early in the season when nothing is far from done and we have an overreaction line on our side coming into the next game. 10* (274) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Signature Enforcer. The Eagles have won two straight games against arguably two of the worst teams in the NFL which has put their schedule rank at No. 27 but now face the team that has played the easiest schedule in the league and still has one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Philadelphia is a team that has one of the best rosters in the league and has not come close to expectations but is the only team in the NFL that is ranked in the top ten in both total offense and total defense and it is only a matter of time in the wide open NFC. Quarterback Jalen Hurts will now be in his second straight game with his full receiving corps and is on pace for his third straight game to post a passer rating of 119 or better. No one is on this team with 84 percent of the money on the Bengals yet the line has come down which is a total take. Cincinnati is coming off two straight wins as well and coincidentally, both against the Browns and the Giants. They were not nearly as convincing as they were outgained in both of those and the Bengals have been outgained in four straight games which puts them in the spot where the 3-1 record is factoring into the line. Quarterback Joe Burrow is having a great season and is ranked No. 2 in passer rating but again, the schedule has had a lot to do with it. The fact they are 0-3 at home is putting the majority on this team but there is only one playoff team in this matchup and it is not the Bengals. Cincinnati is ranked No. 20 or worse in five of the eight DVOA and EPA categories which makes them a team that cannot be trusted against a team getting healthy at the right time. 10* (283) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. The Vikings suffered their first loss of the season, a two-point setback to Detroit after blowing a 10-0 lead after the first quarter. At 5-1, Minnesota has played the No. 2 ranked schedule in the NFL so give them credit for that as three of their wins have come against teams ranked No. 5, No. 7 and No. 8 in the Sagarin ratings but we are not sold on those wins. San Francisco is broken and has been killed with injuries, Houston remains a very overrated 5-2 while Green Bay was playing with Jordan Love in his first game back and was clearly rusty in the first half. The Vikings are the public play here yet the line has either not moved at all or the juice has increased on the Rams side which gives us that slight RLM value. Many will expect Minnesota to bounce back after its 5-0 start but teams are just 8-8 straight up and 6-10 ATS when coming off their first loss from Week Eight on over the last 34 years. Teams in this situation, eight favorites or underdogs and playing their next game on Thursday are 6-10 straight up and 5-11 ATS. The Rams picked up a non-cover win over the Raiders to snap a two-game losing straight and are now 0-3 ATS their last three games. Three of their four losses were games they were in, losing to the Lions, Bears and Packers by six, six and five points so they will be out to avoid the NFC North sweep. Los Angeles is getting healthier with key players along both sides of line back and it will see the return of wide receiver Cooper Kupp this week as well. This is a great buy low spot with a good number against a team coming off a huge emotional loss against a division rival. 10* (110) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. The Ravens come in as the big public betting favorite yet we have seen the line come down as they opened at 4.5 and came down a point last Monday but it will not be surprising to see it go slightly back up once more public action comes in. Baltimore has won four straight games after starting the season 0-2 and it has been successful thanks to the best running game in the league from a yardage standpoint while sitting No. 2 in Offensive Rushing EPA. During the four-game winning streak, Baltimore faced four of the bottom nine rushing defenses and Tampa Bay is ranked better than those four opponents and are stronger now with Vita Vea back in the lineup. The Ravens passing game is not as strong since it really has not been needed for the most part and has the advantage against the Tampa Bay passing defense however the Buccaneers are a top ten unit in Pressure % and Hurry %. The Buccaneers own offense is a potent unit as well and can exploit the Ravens weaknesses on defense, namely their outside coverage. Overall, Tampa Bay is No. 8 in Total Offense and No. 9 in Offensive EPA following three strong games, scoring 33, 30 and 51 points with the middle score being the only game they lost, a 36-30 setback in overtime against Atlanta. While Lamar Jackson is playing like and MVP once again, Baker Mayfield has fit very well into this system and is posting a career high 109.4 passer rating which is No. 3 in the league behind Jared Goff and Joe Burrow. We are over the key number which is above the Jackson threshold of dominating as an underdog or a favorite of less than a field goal. 10* (476) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Star Attraction. We could call this a revenge spot for the 49ers but this is more than that with this going against a 5-0 Kansas City team that could have a losing record at this point. The Chiefs first three wins came down to the final seconds, the win over Chargers was from a 10-0 deficit and the win over New Orleans two weeks ago was aided by Derek Carr leaving the game early. This is the prime Patrick Mahomes spot where he has thrived as an underdog which is where the public is already riding and the number has barely moved. They were able to catch Baltimore in Week One which was ideal with the Ravens coming in still looking to get their new roster together. San Francisco is only 3-3 which is a reason the line is short with no public backing. Two of the losses have come against division rivals Los Angeles and Arizonia which were two games they should have won and the other defeat was their first road game at Minnesota after a short week after the victory over the Jets. Despite the .500 record, the 49ers are rated high at No. 5 in Net EPA behind the offense that has been crushed with injuries and is still No. 6 in Offensive EPA with role players picking it up and quarterback Brock Purdy still being an underrated commodity. 10* (472) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. We had the Eagles in this spot last Sunday which was the right side but a blocked field goal for a touchdown prevented the cover and this week we are grabbing Buffalo in a blowout situation. The Bills were fortunate to come out of New York with the victory over the Jets in a game plagued with penalties and a cleaner game heavily favors Buffalo. The addition of Amari Cooper is not the reason for this side, although it cannot hurt, as the Bills are finally back home following a three-game roadtrip where they ended up 1-2. With a game at Seattle on deck, there is no chance for a lookahead as this is the game to focus on after Buffalo falling from No. 2 to No. 5 in Net EPA. The Titans were a big disappointment last week, falling at home 20-17 against Indianapolis, as Will Levis did Will Levis things. He completed 16 passes for only 95 yards and had a late costly interception. We banked on the Tennessee defense which did its job by allowing only 269 yards but the offense showed why this is a fade team going forward. The Titans are No. 27 in Offensive EPA and No. 28 in Offensive DVOA and while their defense has made their Net rankings better, this is not the offense to face now with Buffalo getting back two big pieces plus showing running back Ray Davis is another weapon. 10* (456) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. Everyone is so off of Cleveland at this point, coming off four straight losses including defeats in three straight road games. The trade of Amari Cooper shows they are selling and the line has moved with that as this game opened at 3.5 and is up to 6 in most places with 84 percent of the money riding on the Bengals. This is the ideal buy low contrarian spot whose offense just got rid of a big weapon while not scoring more than 18 points in any of their first six games but coming in as a divisional underdog of more than a field goal is always an appealing take. That offense will have Nick Chubb back in the lineup while the defense is still in the top half of the league in EPA. The Bengals are coming off a win in New York against the Giants to improve to 2-1 on the road and 2-4 overall. They have been outgained in their last three games and despite allowing just seven points last week, Cincinnati is still ranked No. 27 in Defensive EPA and No. 22 in Defensive DVOA which gives the Cleveland offense an opportunity to break that 20-point barrier. The offense was held to just over 300 yards against the Giants and 47 of the 304 total yards came on a fluke touchdown run from Joe Burrow who has faced four straight teams with defense ranked No. 19 or worse in Defensive EPA. 10* (458) Cleveland Browns

This is play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. We are still bullish against Houston as it is an overrated 5-1 that could easily be 3-3 or even 2-4 as wins over Indianapolis, Jacksonville and Buffalo were all by four points or less and could have swung to the other side. The metrics back this up as the Texans are ranked No. 14 in Net EPA which is the lowest ranking for any team with a winning record, let alone a team that is 5-1. Quarterback C.J. Stroud is backing up a solid rookie season with another good one but is just one interception short from his total picks from all of last season and now faces his second biggest road test of the season, the first being a 34-7 loss in Minnesota. Green Bay jumped out to a 24-0 lead over Arizona and never looked back to improve to 4-2 and yet are still undervalued in the NFC North which has become the best division in football. The Packers have done this without quarterback Jordan Love for two games after getting injured in the series opener against the Eagles and after a rusty first half against Minnesota in his first game back, he is playing at an elite level. This is a good spot with it facing Jacksonville next week so certainly no lookahead and the majority of the money is on Houston despite the line hitting 3. 10* (460) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our Divisional Game of the Year. Minnesota is coming off its bye week following a win against the Jets across the pond which sets up a good spot here in a normal situation but we are still not clear how good this team really is. The metrics have them as the No. 1 ranked defense in the NFL but who have they faced? Yes, Houston, which is still overrated and a San Francisco team that came in banged up and now the Vikings return home with a perfect 5-0 ATS record which we love to fade. Quarterback Sam Darnold has been in the MVP conversation talk yet is leading an offense that is No. 17 in Offensive EPA and No. 18 in Offensive DVOA. Detroit is coming off another dominating performance as it rolled over Dallas 47-9. The Lions are ranked No. 5 in Offensive EPA and are in the top five in both passing and rushing so they should once again have their way moving the ball even against the top ranked defense in regard to EPA. The one possible concern is on the other side of the ball but Detroit moved to No. 4 in Defensive EPA and even with the loss of Aidan Hutchinson, it is not that big against an overrated Darnold. This was our preseason Super Bowl team and we feel they are trending in that direction. 10* (463) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. How bad have the Saints become? Their 91 points scored in their first two games were tied for the third most since the NFL merger and those other three teams finished the season a combined 36-8 with none having more than three losses and the 2024 Saints are now 2-4 so the drastic regression has been historical and there are no signs of improving. The Saints came into last week No. 8 in Defensive DVOA and have fallen to No. 14 after the dismal performance last week and have gone from No. 4 to No. 11 in Net DVOA. New Orleans has a better matchup for its defense this week but it will not be enough to make up for an offense that has problems all over the place. The Saints have the second worst offensive line in the NFL which will be an issue for quarterback Spencer Rattler who had a rough first start as his 243 yards passing were a façade as he threw two interceptions while completing 55 percent of his passes and posted a 60.7 passer rating. Now it has been officially ruled that he will be without his top two receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed while Taysom Hill is doubtful. The Broncos had their three-game winning streak snapped against the Chargers last week as they fell behind 23-0 and tried to make it interesting with 16 fourth quarter points but ran out of time. The offense could get nothing going against the No. 3 ranked Chargers defense in DVOA but have a much easier matchup this week. Quarterback Bo Nix struggled in the rain against the Jets but his other three starts over his last four games have resulted in passer ratings of 85.0, 117.2 and 84.9. Defensively, the Broncos come in No. 7 in DVOA with a high pressure rate that should totally smother the Saints offense. 10* (311) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. This is a matchup of strength against strength when it comes to the Bills having the ball. They are No. 3 in Offensive EPA, trailing only Washington and Baltimore heading into Week Six but they have struggled the last two weeks and now have their biggest test. The Ravens came into the week ranked No. 22 in Defensive Efficiency while the Texans came in No. 16 and now Buffalo faces a Jets defense ranked No. 4. New York allowed 23 points but one of the touchdowns was from the defense while the 253 yards allowed to Minnesota was easily a season low for the Vikings. Bills quarterback is listed on the injury report but with a left hand and ankle injury and not for the concussion that he likely received last week but not reported so we will see how that pans out. Additionally, running back James Cook and wide receiver Khalil Shakir are both limited as questionable being limited in practice. The Jets struggled on offense in London but they played against the No. 1 ranked defense in EPA and they now face a Buffalo defense ranked No. 15 in EPA and continue to be banged up with injuries. With a new play caller, we should see quarterback Aaron Rodgers have the offense opened up more. Also, Buffalo is second to last against the run. It is no coincidence that the last two Buffalo losses have come against the two best teams they have faced and both were on the road. This marks their third straight road game which could be an edge in the fact they have lost the last two which puts them in a desperate position but it is New York with the bigger intangible after head coach Robert Saleh was fired which puts the players in a good position to prove some things. 10* (288) New York Jets

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Star Attraction. Dallas is coming off a fortunate win over Pittsburgh as it had to rally twice in the fourth quarter, culminating with a winning touchdown with just 20 seconds remaining. To their credit, the Cowboys outgained the Steelers 445-226 but the offense sputtered in the redzone and they committed three turnovers. They improved to 3-0 on the road but remain winless at home at 0-2 with losses coming against the Saints and Ravens. They have a much more difficult matchup this week as their defense will not be facing inept rushing and passing offenses. Dallas will again be without linebacker Micah Parsons and defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence which is not ideal going up one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. The secondary is also banged up but cornerback Daron Bland is set to return. Detroit is coming off its bye week following a win over Seattle where it improved to 3-1 on the season. The Lions are ranked No. 5 in Offensive EPA and are in the top five in both passing and rushing so they should once again have their way moving the ball. The one possible concern is on the other side of the ball as Detroit is No. 12 in Defensive EPA which is certainly far from horrible and they are equally good against the run and pass so it is not a concern for us. The Lions will bring pressure against a bad offensive line and while Dak Prescott has the ability to put up big numbers like he did last week, his lack of execution is the downfall. Dallas will have the emotional edge of being back home but they are at a disadvantage in all other aspects. 10* (283) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. The Chargers opened the season 2-0 although those wins were against Las Vegas and Carolina and they then dropped their next two games at Pittsburgh and at home against Kansas City. The bye week came at the best time with a chance to work on the offense that has fallen to No. 24 in Offensive EPA and give quarterback Justin Herbert an extra week to rest his ankle. He has not looked good in the new Jim Harbaugh offense but some of the issues can be attributed to the offensive line that has been banged up. They were without tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater against the Chiefs but both practiced this week and should be able to return. The Chargers are tied with Minnesota at No. 1 in Defensive EPA and have an excellent matchup in this spot. Denver has surprisingly won three straight games after opening the season 0-2. The Broncos rolled over an unfocused Tampa Bay team and should have lost against the Jets which missed a game winning field goal late while taking out an injury plagued Raiders team last week. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix has had his struggles and the Broncos come in tied for No. 27 in Offensive Passing EPA which puts him in another tough situation. Additionally, the Broncos will be without center Luke Wattenberg and tackle Alex Palczewski which is bad news against the Los Angeles defense. The Chargers defense was short-handed against Kansas City as well with safety Dewin James serving a one game suspension and linebacker Joey Bosa out with a hip injury but they will return this week. 10* (277) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our Divisional Game of the Month. The Colts are coming off a loss at Jacksonville which snapped a two-game winning streak but did get the cover based on the closing line to make it three straight winners against the number. The challenge will be more difficult this week however. Indianapolis hopes to get quarterback Anthony Richardson back but we still do not know if he will go as he will be a gametime decision which means Joe Flacco could get his second straight start after having a monster game against the Jaguars. Now the Colts go from playing the No. 32 ranked team in Defensive EPA to the No. 6 ranked team in Defensive EPA and the Titans lead the league in total defense and passing defense. Indianapolis will be without running back Jonathan Taylor so a second straight week. Tennessee is coming off its bye week following its first win of the season at Miami 31-12. While the Titans are just 1-3, they have won the stats in three games, outgaining the Bears and the Jets in their first two games. This is mostly in part to its stout defense as the offense does remain a concern. There are injury issues at quarterback here as well with Will Levis nursing a shoulder injury which could force a Mason Rudolph start. Rudolph did not put up huge numbers against the Dolphins but he managed the game well and protected the football and whichever quarterback gets the nod, they will be facing a Colts defense that made Trevor Lawrence look like an All Pro and one that is ranked No. 28 in Defensive Passing EPA. 10* (276) Tennessee Titans

This is a play on the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. Houston is coming off a pair of home wins including a huge 23-20 victory last week against Buffalo as it kicked a 59-yard field goal as time expired. The Texans are now 4-1 on the season but they are one of the worst winning teams in the league as they come in Ranked No. 17 in Net EPA. The defense has been slightly better than the offense, No. 17 compared to No. 20 but clearly there is no dominant strength on either side. Both sides are dinged up with the offensive line likely to be down at least one starter and running back Joe Mixon is still hobbled with an ankle injury. The Texans are tied for No. 11 in Defensive Passing EPA but the bad news is that they will be without two starters in the secondary as safety Jimmie Ward and cornerback Kamari Lassiter have been ruled out. The Patriots look to present a good matchup for Houston as their offense is tied for No. 27 in Offensive EPA and running back Rhamondre Stevenson has been ruled out with a foot injury. What makes this the spot to play on New England as it is making a change at quarterback with rookie Drake Maye making his first start. Houston will have had a tough time game planning for him with nothing to look at and while Maye will likely see a lot of pressure, he has the scrambling ability to counter that. We are getting the line movement we were looking for even though it has gone against us, coming down to 6.5 points in some places but this is with 84 percent of the money coming in on the Texans, giving us the RLM. 10* (270) New England Patriots

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. This could be considered a make or break game for both teams as Cleveland cannot afford to fall to 1-5 while the Eagles will fall under .500 with a loss. This being said, the Eagles have significant edges all over the place which is a reason this line steamed up early in the week. Philadelphia is coming off a loss at Tampa Bay in its last game but injuries played a big factor in that with receivers A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith sidelined along with offensive tackle Lane Johnson. All three will be back on the field following their bye week and this will be the first home game for Philadelphia in a month. The offense will have a chance to finally break out even though they are still tied for No. 9 in Offensive EPA despite the recent scoring struggles and injuries. While the Eagles are back home, the Browns are playing their third straight road game with the first two being disastrous against the Raiders and Commanders. Cleveland is now 1-4 with the lone win coming against Jacksonville that easily could have been a loss. The Browns relied on their top ranked defense last season but they are just No. 14 in Defensive EPA this year and it is clear that Myles Garrett is not right and this is a game where Jalen Hurts can thrive. The bigger issue for Cleveland is the offense, namely quarterback Deshawn Watson who looks lost. The Browns are ahead of only Tennessee and Carolina in Offensive Passing EPA and while the running game is better, it is not by much as they are No. 20 in Offensive Rushing EPA. This certainly is blowout potential. 10* (274) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. This number opened at 3.5 and has not moved all week with the majority of the action coming in on the 49ers. San Francisco is off to a 2-3 start following a loss against Arizona and it hits the road where it has dropped both games at Minnesota and Los Angeles with the two wins coming against the Jets, that just fired their coach, and the Patriots, arguably the worst team in the AFC. They have fallen to No. 8 in Net EPA and No. 9 in Total DVOA and injuries remain an issue as they hit the road following two straight home games and playing on a short week. Seattle has had a strange couple weeks as it dominated Detroit and lost and followed that up losing the time of possession against the Giants by nearly a full quarter as it ran the ball only 11 times. This is not the gameplan to have success with one of the top running backs in the league in Kenneth Walker after having only five carries last week and Seattle has now lost 10 of 16 games when he gets fewer than 10 carries while going 15-8 in 23 games when he carries the ball 10 or more times. Despite the two recent losses, Seattle is ranked ahead of the 49ers in Total DVOA as No. 8 with an offense that is ranked No. 6. While the defense is not at that same level, they have improved under new head coach Mike McDonald, as they are No. 13 in DVOA this season compared to No. 28 last year. The Seahawks are 25-14-1 ATS as home underdogs since 2003, including 11-4 ATS in the first two months of the season. 10* (106) Seattle Seahawks

This is a play on the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. The Chiefs came away with another come-from-behind victory as they came back from a 10-0 deficit against the Chargers and scored 17 unanswered points for the 17-0 victory to move to 4-0. The only game they have not trailed in was the season opener against Baltimore and they have been behind in the second half in each of their last three games but found ways to remain undefeated. Kansas City suffered a huge loss with Rashee Rice injuring his knee and while the timetable for his absence is unknown, he will be missed here as the No. 1 target for quarterback Patrick Mahomes. The offense has regressed its point production in each of the last four games and the Chiefs come in ranked No. 10 in Offensive DVOA and No. 11 in Offensive EPA and square off against what has been an elite defense with the Saints coming in No. 2 in Defensive DVOA and No. 6 in Defensive EPA. The Saints are coming off a last second loss against Atlanta which was their second straight loss, coming by a combined four points, following a 2-0 start outscoring Carolina and Dallas 91-29. New Orleans could easily be 4-0 and that is reflected with their No. 1 overall EPA ranking. Despite two straight subpar efforts, the offense is No. 9 in DVOA and No. 4 in EPA and while the offensive line was depleted last week, they still registered 366 total yards against the Falcons which have a very comparable defense with that of Kansas City. Chris Jones is the best defensive lineman in the game and can create havoc but New Orleans has been solid against pressure despite the injuries. The Chiefs are overvalued again as the metric numbers have this as a -3 spread yet the line has climbed to -5.5 after sitting at -4.5 Wednesday. 10* (475) New Orleans Saints

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Star Attraction. Green Bay got the good news last week as it welcomed quarterback Jordan Love back after missing two games but the bad news is that he was clearly rusty and the defense did him no favors as the Packers fell behind 28-0 in an eventual 31-29 loss to the Vikings. Love was able to spread the ball around and he threw for 389 yards and four touchdowns but also threw three interceptions and that will get cleaned up this week. Green Bay faced a very good Vikings defense and were eventually able to find their way and despite Love out for two games, the Packers are No. 3 in Offensive DVOA and No. 10 in Offensive EPA. Now they face a Rams defense that is No. 31 in Defensive DVOA and No. 32 in Defensive EPA and they have struggled against both the pass and run so expect more balance from Green Bay after last week having to shift to a mostly passing attack. The Rams are fortunate not to be 0-4 as they were able to pick up a near miracle win against the 49ers where their win probability at one point late in the game was at five percent. 13 of their 27 points against the 49ers came in the fourth quarter and this has been the story all season as Los Angeles has scored a total of 40 points in the first three quarters while scoring 32 points in the fourth quarter. Injuries have crushed the offense and while the wide receivers have been the story, the offensive line has been devasted as well with three starters on IR. Receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp remain out and the offense has dipped to second half of the league in DVOA and EPA. While the Rams are No. 8 in Offensive rushing EPA, they face a Green Bay defense that is No. 4 in Defensive Rushing EPA. 10* (469) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our AFC Game of the Month. Buffalo is coming off its first loss of the season and it was not even close as the Bills were dominated from the start and that was a loss that can actually help going forward. This will be their second straight road game but have the ideal situation coming off an embarrassing stand alone game loss and now finally playing their first 1:00 game of the season. Buffalo is ranked in the top five in both Offensive DVOA and EPA and face a Texans defense that is ranked No. 17 in Defensive EPA so we ae expecting a big bounce back from the offense that scored only 10 points last week. The 12 first downs generated were the fewest for a Buffalo team in five years. Houston has not been impressive in its 3-1 start and neither has C.J. Stroud who is well below his averages from last season and we expected regression from him and the Texans as a whole after winning the AFC South last season. They allowed Indianapolis to stick around the entire game and against Chicago, they needed four field goals, three from 50+, to get by while needing a late score last week to get past Jacksonville. Stroud did have a solid game but that was against a defense ranked dead last in DVOA and second to last in EPA. Despite the Bills injuries and suspensions, the Texans take a big step up. Buffalo was torched on defense against the Ravens but are still a respectable No. 10 in Defensive DVOA and in the only other two games they have faced a defense ranked in the top half of the league in DVOA, they managed 26 combined points. Early money has poured in on Buffalo yet the line has not moved and that is certainly telling. 10* (457) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Jacksonville came through with the cover but failed to pick up the win as it could not hold the lead it got halfway through the third quarter, allowing a touchdown with 18 seconds left to remain the only winless team in the NFL. The Jaguars easily could have won their first two games, then they ran into a buzzsaw in Buffalo before another game last week they could have won. The offense has gotten the blame but they are No. 21 in Offensive DVOA which is far from great but hardly horrible and they will be facing an average defense this week as the Colts are No. 17 in Defensive DVOA as their best two games were against the Packers without Jordan Love and still lost and against Bears rookie Caleb Williams. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has now lost nine straight starts and is 20-34 in his career and he is coming off a mistake free game with another great chance to break that streak. The Colts defeated the Steelers last week to make it two straight wins but they suffered two big blows. Quarterback Anthony Richardson had to leave the game with a hip injury putting this game in question although there is optimism he will play. If not, it will be Joe Flacco and at this point, there is no difference in the betting market and who will lead this team. The bigger injury was the ankle sprain of Jonathan Taylor who has not practiced. He is ranked fifth in the NFL in rushing with 349 yards and they will not bring him back early after suffering the same injury last season and came back too early as he reaggravated it. The Jaguars defense has been the real issue as they are No. 32 in Defensive DVOA but that is due to the last two games as they played solid the first two against a comparable offense. 10* (460) Jacksonville Jaguars

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. While Minnesota has been the big surprise in the league, Washington is right up there as it has been the talk the last two weeks and their offensive output. Those games against Arizona and Cincinnati were against defenses ranked No. 28 and No. 26 in Defensive EPA respectively so the Commanders were far from challenged. Jayden Daniels has been outstanding as he has completed 82.1 percent of his passes and has posted a 107.4 passer rating but this will be his first test against a strong defense. The Browns were one of the best in the NFL last season in EPA and DVOA and while they have slipped some this season, the opener against Dallas has a lot to do with that and they have been much better the last three weeks, albeit against some pedestrian offenses. Cleveland defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz has done a great job of game planning and the key here is to clean up the missed tackles. The Browns offense has been one of the worst in the NFL as they have yet to score 20 points in four games and they have not exactly faced a potent defense. That does not change here as they now get to go against the worst defense they have encountered with Washington ranked No. 30 in both Defensive DVOA and EPA and this is the breakout game they need if they want to salvage this season. The offensive line has been a big problem but they are starting to get healthy again. This is also a play on the spread which absolutely looks like a trap line. Washington has looked like one of the best teams over the last two weeks yet are favored by just a field goal as of Wednesday, just a half-point more that what Las Vegas was favored by over Cleveland last week. 10* (463) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Early Dominator. Minnesota is the surprise of the NFL as it is off to a 4-0 start and has been the most dominating team not only because of the perfect straight up record but the Vikings are off to a 4-0 ATS start, covering by an average of 16.2 ppg. Now is the time to go against this streak as we have seen a line flip from +2.5 to -2.5 based on overall success and what was seem last week. Defeating the Giants in Week One was nothing special and the last three wins, they have had great situation, facing the 49ers in their first road game coming off a big home win over the Jets, facing an overvalued Houston team that was 2-0 and last week going up against Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love making his first start since opening week and very rusty early on. This will be the toughest matchup quarterback Sam Darnold has faced. The Jets are coming off a bad home loss against Denver as they missed a late field goal for the win but the conditions were horrible which hurt their offense more than it affected the Broncos offense. They managed only 248 total yards with quarterback Aaron Rodgers going just 24-42 where the rain made a difference in the accuracy. He faces a tough defense this week as the Vikings are No. 1 in DVOA and No. 3 in EPA but he is one of a very few quarterbacks than can work around this. The big edge for the Jets is the defense as they are No. 1 in Passing EPA Defense and they have allowed just 30 points in their last three games after giving up 32 in their season opener. Not only do we expect Rodgers to bounce back but we expect the Jets defense to continue to dominate. 10* (451) New York Jets

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. Atlanta came away with a win on a last second field goal over New Orleans in Week Four despite not scoring an offensive touchdown. The Falcons recovered a punt for a touchdown and has an interception for another and we have yet to see this offense come alive and we could finally see that happen here. They have the benefit of playing on a short week in consecutive games while Tampa Bay has to travel and while it is not a far jaunt, the time takes away from preparation. Atlanta is just No. 20 in total offense with Kirk Cousins coming off another below average performance. Atlanta has gone down to the last seconds in each of its last three games, winning two of those and this is the situation where the Falcons can finally have that overall effort against a still banged up defense and what is considered an overvalued offense. Tampa Bay dominated Philadelphia from the start as it jumped out to a 24-0 lead and the defense did its job the rest of the way. This game was a question of are the Buccaneers this good or are the Eagles in trouble and we are going with the latter as they have been out of sorts all season whether it be offense or defense. Baker Mayfield had a great game to help Tampa Bay improve to 3-1 on the season but it has been inconsistent as it is ranked No. 16 in total offense and No. 11 in total defense and that is where the Luck Ratings come into play. Despite the domination of Philadelphia, this is where recency bias comes into play because that is what most will remember and what the line is being based on, not the Buccaneers last road game at Detroit where they were outgained by 296 yards despite winning which is also being in that Luck Rating effect. 10* (302) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Monday Star Attraction. Seattle is off to a 3-0 start, led by a defense that is allowing 3.9 yppl which is lowest in the NFL and it is No. 3 in Defensive EPA. The Seahawks have benefited from playing a schedule that is ranked No. 31 which has played a big part of that defensive success as is the fact they have faced Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett and Skylar Thompson. Those three quarterbacks have led offenses ranked No. 26, No. 24 and No. 29 in Offensive EPA respectively so they have not been tested which changes this week. The Seattle offense is averaging 24.3 ppg which is tied for No. 8 but like the other side, they have not faced a good defense as the three opponents are ranked No. 19 or worse in EPA and they will be facing their toughest defense thus far. Detroit is coming off a win over Arizona to improve to 2-1 with the lone loss coming against Tampa Bay two weeks ago despite outgaining the Buccaneers by 246 total yards. The Lions managed only 16 points but put up 463 yards of offense so the production was there, just not the scoring which has been an issue. The Lions have been a disappointment of offense this season as they are averaging 20.7 ppg overall and 18.6 ppg in regulation and they are ranked No. 13 in Offensive EPA. The difference between Detroit and the three teams the Seahawks have played is that the Lions have the potential, they just have not gotten it together quite yet. They averaged 28.7 ppg last season so they will be just fine. On the other side, the Lions are ranked No. 10 in Defensive EPA while allowing 17.7 ppg which is No. 9. This is a historically bad spot for the Seahawks as we play against teams that are 3-0 and playing as road underdogs as these teams are just 3-13 ATS over the last 15 years. This includes a 28-point loss by Miami against Buffalo last season and Minnesota and Buffalo pending this Sunday. 10* (292) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the BALTIMORE RAVENS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. The Bills are off to a 3-0 start and are looking dominant in doing so but they have faced a schedule ranked No. 23 and the spots in the schedule have also been in their favor. They opened at home against the Cardinals and needed a big second half and a late stop to win, they were outgained by Miami 351-247 and got a nice break going from a Thursday night to a Monday night against Jacksonville. Taking nothing away from Buffalo, this is a very strong team that is currently behind Kansas City in Super Bowl odds at +750 after opening +1,500 but now comes a test. Baltimore opened the season with a loss in Kansas city that was a toe away from overtime and then the Ravens allowed the Raiders, the same Raiders that were blown out by Carolina last week, to stage a late comeback and then nearly let the Cowboys do the same last week. They ran all over Dallas and are tied for No. 1 in Rushing EPA as they finally utilized Derrick Henry to his ability and paired with Lamar Jackson, this is a tough offense to stop. Buffalo is ahead of only Dallas in Defensive Rushing EPA. Admittedly, the Ravens defense has slipped looking at their metrics but their first half and second half defenses are polar opposites and those prevent styles the last two games with having big leads has to stop and it almost results in a second straight implosion. One of the most widely known recent situations is Lamar Jackson is now 23-7 ATS then not favored by three or more points as an underdog following another cover last week. 10* (288) Baltimore Ravens

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our Divisional Game of the Month. The Saints suffered their first loss of the season as they fell to Philadelphia 15-12 as they allowed two Saquon Barkley touchdowns in the fourth quarter, the second with 1:01 remaining to seal the win for the Eagles. While it was only a three-point loss, the Saints were outgained 460-219 by the Eagles so we have a skewed final score that should have been a lot worse but it was Philadelphia that kept kicking itself in the foot. New Orleans is turning into a public team as the early money is on New Orleans again but the first two victories are not worth much as Carolina was a disaster through two weeks and we saw Dallas get gashed again last week. Injuries along the offensive line will be a factor this week. The Falcons have injuries along the offensive line as well which hurt them last week they were in position to defeat the Chiefs and at least be given an opportunity late but a missed pass interference call benefitted Kansas City once again. Atlanta is now 1-2 with the lone win coming against the Eagles on a last minute drive so the last two games have come down to the wire. After a rough first game for Kirk Cousins, partly coming back from injury and also a vanilla game plan, he has looked a lot more comfortable the last two games. The Falcons are favored again for the first time since the opener with a reverse line move as the number has gone up from -1 since the opener but is still under the key number of three as of Thursday. 10* (264) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Scoring is down in the NFL this season and through three weeks, there are nine teams averaging 17 ppg or fewer and taking out the Steelers, the other eight teams are a combined 6-18, none of which have a winning record so the 3-0 Steelers are an outlier. Pittsburgh is undefeated because of its defense as it is allowing a league low 8.7 ppg, giving up no more than 10 points in any game. While impressive, the opposition has played a role as the Steelers caught Kirk Cousins in his first game back from an Achilles injury, rookie Bo Nix in his second NFL game and Justin Herbert having to leave because of an ankle injury. The Steelers are 10-23 ATS in their last 33 games when favored on the road against teams with a losing record. The Colts picked up their first win of the season as they defeated the Bears 21-16 despite getting outgained 395-306 as they took advantage of three Chicago turnovers. Typically, we stay away from winning teams that were outgained but the fade from the other side is too strong and the fact Indianapolis remains home making this is a good opportunity for an offense to finally get to the Steelers defense. Anthony Richardson has been far from clean as his last two games have seen passer ratings of 41.8 and 39.0 but there have been flashes and we are starting to see the old version of Jonathan Taylor emerge. The defense has looked good enough to contain Justin Fields, who has been efficient but has yet to have to make plays when needed in clutch time. 10* (266) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. Jacksonville is coming off an absolutely awful performance at Buffalo on Monday night to fall to 0-3 and will likely be one of the least publicly bet teams in Week Four. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has now lost eight straight starts and is 20-33 in his career with an 84.5 passer rating. And we are on him to bounce back. The Jaguars easily could have won their first two games, they just ran into a buzzsaw last week and teams that lost by 35 or more points as underdogs of four or more points are 50-19-2 ATS. Houston has not been impressive in its 2-1 start and neither has C.J. Stroud who is well below his averages from last season and we expected regression from him and the Texans as a whole after winning the AFC South last season. They allowed Indianapolis to stick around the entire game and against Chicago, they needed four field goals, three from 50+, to get by. Many are expecting a bounce back from Houston and the linemakers are predicting the market and have moved with it with what is now an absurd number. This is an interesting line move as it opened at 4.5, which is the same amount the Jaguars were getting in Buffalo and now it has risen to 6.5. So the move is saying the Texans are the same team as the Bills at this point in the season? Absolutely not. Also the move is based on the horrible Jacksonville performance at Buffalo but there is no reaction to the horrible Houston performance in Minnesota so the guess is we can only call it a half overreaction. 10* (267) Jacksonville Jaguars

This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. Chicago was anointed NFC North Champions by many before the season started and it is fortunate to be 1-2 as it opened the season with a win over Tennessee, a bottom five teams in the league, needing to overcome a 17-0 deficit to win 24-7 with two of the Bears touchdowns via punt return and interception return. We are not counting them out however as they showed life last week by outgaining the Colts 395-306 but were hurt by three turnovers including a pair of bad passes from Caleb Williams. Despite the two interceptions, he posted his highest passer rating and while it was not spectacular, it showed improvement as he threw for 363 yards and tossed his first two touchdowns. There is still more room for improvement and heading back home against the second worst defense in EPA can do that. The Rams are coming off an improbable win last week over the 49ers, coming back from three separate double-digit deficits. It was the first win for Los Angeles as it bounced back from a throttling in Arizona which came after an overtime loss against the Lions, a game obviously that could have gone either way. That was when the Rams were healthy however as they are riddled with injuries with the two top receivers still out as well as two offensive guards. Kyren Williams carried the Rams with the last three touchdowns but he rushed for just 3.7 ypg so whoever says he went off, he did not unless referring to fantasy. The defense again lets them down. 10* (274) Chicago Bears

This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our NFL Thursday Star Attraction. As dysfunctional as Dallas has looked the last two weeks, this is a spot it thrives in and will bounce back after a pair of ugly home losses. The Cowboys were destroyed by New Orleans two weeks ago and were behind 28-6 in the fourth quarter last week against Baltimore before trying to make a miracle comeback all after opening the season with a win of what we know now is a bad Cleveland team. This fits what Dallas did last season as well, roll over the bad teams and lose to the good teams. The Cowboys did lose to Arizona early in the season but in their other eight games against non-playoff teams, they won all of those by an average of 27 ppg. This is the perfect opponent to get right, at least for now. The Giants are coming off their first win of the season as they overcame a 7-0 deficit in the first 11 seconds to defeat the Browns 21-15. They opened the season with losses against Minnesota and Washington with the former not looking as bad now and to their credit, there has been progress. However, they have not faced a decent quarterback the last two games and while Dak Prescott does not have a ton around him this year, he will be able to take apart a poor Giants secondary. He has thrived in these spots as well, going 25-8 ATS (75.8 percent) as a divisional favorite. The defense has fallen to No. 27 in EPA but will be able to pressure Daniel Jones through a bad offensive line. The Cowboys make it 14 wins in the last 15 meetings. 10* (101) Dallas Cowboys

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Monday Enforcer. Like a number of teams this week, the Bengals are in desperation mode to avoid a 0-3 start which makes it nearly impossible to make the postseason. Of the 168 teams that started 0-3 between 1990-2023, only four have managed to get into the postseason and Cincinnati has been here before being one of the slowest starting teams in recent years. Including this season, the Bengals are 1-11 over the last six years in their first two games, the only win coming in 2021 against Minnesota. They have won their last three Game Three games and they are in a good spot playing on Monday night as 0-2 teams playing at home on Monday night cover at a 71 percent clip. Washington picked up its first win of the season under quarterback Jaylen Daniels with a 21-18 win over the Giants, needing a field goal as time expired for the victory. That was the story the whole game however as the Commanders had to settle for seven field goals as they finished 0-6 from the redzone and that is not ideal here against a solid redzone defense as the Bengals have held their first two opponents 2-6 inside the redzone. This game has blowout written all over it and that will be the popular public play. We saw some early line movement as this number went to 8-8.5 on Monday but came back to 7.5 on Tuesday and has remained steady despite over 80 percent of the money being on Cincinnati. The Bengals will likely get a lot of public money on Monday so it is wise to get the 7-7.5 now. 10* (480) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Primetime Dominator. Atlanta was a big disappointment in Week One against Pittsburgh, namely the offense that managed only 10 points, and last week against Philadelphia, the offense had just 15 points going into the final minute so that is a concern but this is the spot for it to come around. However, what did change was play calling as Kirk Cousins looked a lot more comfortable and the Falcons actually finished with the No. 5 Success Rate last week of all teams. One reason to like the Falcons offense in this spot as they go up against a Kansas City defense that is ranked No. 30 in Defensive rushing EPA and their secondary is not what it used to be as well. The Chiefs have escaped twice and this is not going to keep happening. They are coming off two emotional wins over AFC rivals Baltimore and Cincinnati and now have to travel for the first time in what is going to be a crazy environment. Patrick Mahomes struggled last week with an 80.6 passer rating and on the season, he has three touchdowns and three interceptions. Not exactly Mahomes-like. While the Atlanta defense has been a liability for a few years, what has been good this season has been that defense even though the metrics do not show it in EPA or DVOA. They do enough again to pull the upset as underdogs. 10* (476) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFC Game of the Month. Detroit is one of a few teams that are looking to bounce back from losses despite being the better team. The Lions outgained Tampa Bay by 246 yards but they were surprisingly horrible in the rezone and quarterback Jared Goff had a bad game. He has been one of the best bounce back quarterbacks in recent games as he rarely puts up consecutive poor passer ratings. This is one of the rare non-dome games for the Lions and they are known for not performing as well on grass but we are not buying that in this spot, especially at this number that has come down below a key number as people are buying into the Cardinals. Arizona is coming off a blowout win over the Rams but it was facing a team ravaged with injuries already this early into the season. The Cardinals opened with a loss in Buffalo but it was close through as they actually blew a significant lead and had their chances late to pull it out even though they averaged only 4.8 yppl. That close loss to the Bills is also playing into the line and the line move as they are 2-0 against the number. Kyler Murray looked great last week but will be facing a much better defense as they will not be putting up 489 yards again this week. This is a good buy low spot based on the early overreactions which we get every season. 10* (469) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the BALTIMORE RAVENS for our NFL Star Attraction. Two desperate teams square off here with the Ravens being in the more desperate spot. They are 0-2 despite having chances to win both games late yet they have not covered which puts them in that rare situation where they have the No. 1 ranked offense in the NFL and have outgained both opponents and by an average of 111 ypg. These are the spots quarterback Lamar Jackson thrives in as he has dominated the NFC and is a crazy 15-2-1 ATS when he is not favored by more than a field goal. He faces a Dallas defense that was gashed for 432 yards last week and while he will have a great day, getting Derrick Henry more involved will be a benefit as well. The Cowboys have had one of the top rosters over the last few seasons but that is clearly not the case this season. They do have stars on both sides of the ball but it thins out considerably and we can lump Dak Prescott into that as well as he has produced passer ratings of 85.3 and 78.3 this season and will be facing a Baltimore defense that is No. 22 is Defensive EPA so they will be out to get right and will be playing with extreme intensity in this high profile spot but more do to avoid the dreaded 0-3 start. Dallas has no running game, averaging just 3.7 ypc while the offense as a whole has put up only three touchdowns through its first two games. 10* (471) Baltimore Ravens

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. The Bryce Young experiment is over in Carolina and because of that, we will be riding the Panthers as they now have a competent quarterback under center. We excused Young for his performance Week One but he was nearly as bad last week and head coach Dave Canales saw enough with a chance to possibly still save the season. Andy Daulton is not going to put a lot of scares in opposing defenses but he has been more than capable in the last two seasons in New Orleans and here where he has thrown for 20 touchdowns and nine interceptions. The team as a whole is going to step up because it was doubtful anyone believed in Young and a chance to improve gives them more motivation. The Raiders are coming off the big upset win over Baltimore to improve to 1-1 and are now in Las Vegas for their home opener but how serious can they take this team coming in. Las Vegas was outgained in both games including getting outyarded by 123 yards last week. We are not comparing Baltimore and Carolina we are seeing a 15-point swing and covering a big number is something the Raiders co with their offense. Gardner Minshew has looked good with close to identical games of 95.1 and 94.7 ratings but the Raiders are ranked No. 29 in Offensive EPA and backing a team that low is bad news. 10* (465) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Tampa Bay was outgained by 246 yards last week and was still able to beat Detroit to move to 2-0. The Lions kicked themselves in the foot numerous times in coming off a rare loss when you outgained your opponent by nearly 250 yards. The Buccaneers dominated their first game at home against Washington with a rookie quarterback and now catch another rookie quarterback at home but they are getting too much credit here as they are favored by 2.5 points more against Bo Nix and they were against Jaylen Daniels. They were near the top of the Luck Rankings last season and seem to be heading that way again but their luck will eventually run out. Nix has no doubt struggled but Denver has been competitive in both games, losing the two by one possession each. He did look better last week despite a pair of interceptions and ended up with 246 yards against a very good defense. He will now be facing a defense that is already banged up so he will catch a break here. Speaking of Luck Rankings, Denver is the unluckiest team to start the season, albeit a short sample size. As of Saturday, the majority of the money is on the Buccaneers yet the line has actually come down in some places and always love being on the side of a reverse line move when the public is all over the side. 10* (461) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Thursday Star Attraction. The Jets picked up their first win of the season with a front door cover late in the fourth quarter and are now back in New York for their home opener. This will be the first true home game for Aaron Rodgers after leaving the opener last season on the first series and there are the doubters after a couple not so great productive games. The Jets defense was to blame in the opener as they could not stop the 49ers which forced a game of catch up that they could not match up with. There will not be that issue tonight as they will be facing a similar offense as last week when the Titans were able to gain just 300 total yards with the help of more poor decision making from Will Levis. Jacoby Brissett is a step above but moving on the road after a home opener loss to this environment will be a test. The Patriots have owned this series with a 15-1 advantage over the last 16 meetings but that makes do difference with the rosters being completely different. The Patriots defense is the focal point. Defensively, it was a great effort against Cincinnati in the opener but the Bengals were not 100 percent and even more questions came up about the health of Joe Burrow and his wrist injury from last season. Last week, Seattle could get nothing going on the ground but Geno Smith had a huge game through the air as he passed for 327 yards on a 75 percent completion clip and this is where the Jets offense can bust out especially with the ability of Breece Hall in both the passing and running game. The lookahead line was 7 and came down most places Sunday night and has settled in at 6-6.5 and it is at a number that is completely skewed from the numbers of both of the games from last week. 10* (302) New York Jets

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Star Attraction. One of the big public sleepers could fall to 0-2 despite not allowing a touchdown in Week One as the Falcons and new quarterback Kirk Cousins failed to get it done against the Steelers. The same Steelers team that is 2-0 having score just one touchdown. Atlanta is in a spot that has historically been great as it comes into Week Two coming off an outright loss as a favorite and now being an underdog. Covers by Cleveland and Cincinnati moved these teams to 67-44-4 ATS since 1980 and this includes a 34-16-4 ATS run when playing against a non-division team. We are now seeing a nine-point swing and this against a team coming off a horrible travel spot. The Philadelphia defense allowed 414 total yards (251 passing yards and 163 rushing yards) in the season opener and it is a defense that went into last season on paper was one of the best and is not. The Eagles finished No. 30 in Defensive EPA, No. 26 passing and No. 28 rushing, and this is a great time for Atlanta to face them coming off that game. The addition of Saquon Barkley makes this offense legit at both levels but A.J. Brown is out tonight and that is a big loss to take away some of the balance of that offense. 10* (291) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Week Two is the big overreaction week and the lines are reflecting that everywhere and we will be going against a lot of the line moves that are too aggressive after just one week. If it was possible for a 2-15 team to look worse than that in the first game the following season, Carolina may have accomplished it. The Panthers had nothing going on offense while the defense could not stop a pretty average offense and they are currently the fourth least bet team behind Las Vegas, New Orleans and Chicago. Head coach Dave Canales called himself out after the loss and we can expect a different team in their home opener. Looking back at least season, the Panthers have scored 10 or fewer points in seven of their last nine games but this spot could not be better. The Chargers won an ugly game against the Raiders that was a skewed final with a questionable fourth down call in the fourth quarter from Las Vegas that swayed the game. We refer to ugly as Los Angeles had more rushing attempts than passing attempts and this is likely going to be the script this season under new head coach Jim Harbaugh. The early lookahead line in the summer was 3 and then opened at most other books last Sunday at 5.5 or 6, went up from there and has now gone back down to 5 despite the handle. In the last 20 years, teams to lose by 35 or more points and are underdogs of four points or more in their next game are 50-18-2 ATS (73.5 percent). 10* (266) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. If there is one player on a roster to move a line, it is the quarterback but often time the numbers are moved too much which is the case here. Green Bay opened as the favorite before the game last Friday and as soon as Jordan Love went down at the end of the game, this one came off the board and when put back up, the line flipped and we are now seeing a 6-7 point swing in some spots which is too much for this quarterback. There has been talk about Love not being completely ruled out for this week as he is officially listed as questionable but we are not banking on him playing. The Packers lost a tough one in Brazil against the Eagles and are a non-public home underdog this week with over 70 percent of the money on the other side. Indianapolis came through for us last week against Houston with the backdoor cover despite getting outgained by over 100 yards. The Colts ran only 41 plays with quarterback Anthony Richardson accounting for 25 of those and running back Jonathan Taylor running for the other 16 so the all or nothing offense was on full display. Defensively, the Colts were not good as they allowed 213 yards rushing which fits into the gameplan of Green Bay to utilize Josh Jacobs and not have to rely on Malik Willis. He has had a full week of practice and this group is going to rally around him in what is already a big game for Green Bay to avoid the 0-2 start. 10* (272) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. We saw this number open at 6-6.5 and it has remained steady throughout the week despite early money on the Cowboys. Dallas came away with the road win in Cleveland despite only 265 yards of offense and that is what will be keeping the majority off of them when the public money comes in despite being a typical public bet team. The Cowboys did it with their defense as they limited the Browns to 230 yards of offense and there is very little difference between the offenses of Cleveland and New Orleans despite what the Saints did last week. The 47 points scored were their most in a season opener in over 40 years but now they face a defense that finished No. 5 in DVOA last season and will be bringing pressure on quarterback Derek Carr all game. Cleveland was without both starting tackles last week which made a huge difference but the Saints entered the season with the lowest rated offensive line and could be without both of their starting tackles as well so there is no difference heading into this week. There certainly are questions with the Dallas offense but the Browns pass rush compared to the Saints is not comparable. Additionally, their secondary is banged up already and the home opener for newly inked CeeDee Lamb and Dak Prescott should put on a show coming off their playoff loss last season, snapping a 16-game home winning streak. 10* (268) Dallas Cowboys

This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Contrarian Closer. Week Two is the big overreaction week and the lines are reflecting that everywhere and we will be going against a lot of the line moves that are too aggressive after just one week. New England is coming off the biggest upset of Week One as it went into Cincinnati and came away with a six-point win as a 7.5-point underdog which added to the Bengals notoriety of slow season starts. Defensively, it was a great effort against Cincinnati but the Bengals were not 100 percent and even more questions came up about the health of Joe Burrow and his wrist injury from last season. Offensively, it was an expected poor showing as New England had just 290 yards of offense including 120 yards through the air and Seattle will see a similar situation as it did with Bo Nix who threw the ball 42 times and had just 138 yards passing. The Bengals receiving group was part of the problem as there was no chemistry with Ja'Marr Chase missing a lot of time and Andrei Iosivas being the No. 2. The situation for Seattle is different despite the average game from Geno Smith against the Broncos. Had New England come away with the win last week, this line would be well over 3 but it is hanging there despite Seattle being the early action side and the Patriots seeing over a 10-point line swing. This is not the Patriots spot as they are 1-12 against the number in their last 13 games getting four or fewer points. 10* (277) Seattle Seahawks

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Star Attraction. We are not sure what happened to the Jets defense last week but they were on the field way too much, 25 of the first 37 minutes, and that does not bode well for a team coming off a short week. That being said, playing against one of the best rosters in the NFL and now facing one of the worst gives them a huge edge. Tennessee possesses one of the best receiving groups in the league but it has a quarterback that cannot get them the ball as Will Levis continues to regress. Two of his first four starts were outstanding last season against Atlanta and Jacksonville but his highest passer rating since then has been 86.2 with his opener this season being 52.5. Aaron Rodgers was not horrible with his first full game with the Jets, he could not just get into a rhythm with the offense possessing the ball for just over 21 minutes. The Tennessee defense is a solid unit but the fact they allowed 24 unanswered points against a quarterback that failed to score an offensive touchdown is a huge concern. Tennessee blew a 17-0 lead last week against Chicago becoming the second team in the last 69 games (66-2-1 ATS) as an underdog of four or more points to lose after having a 17 or more point lead. This is a huge game for the Jets which have one of the worst early schedules playing their first two games on the road and then having to play Thursday in Week Three. 10* (279) New York Jets

This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS for our NFL Thursday Star Attraction. Miami needed two field goals in the last five minutes to beat Jacksonville and that was a big win heading into this game not just to possibly avoid falling two games back in the AFC East had they lost, but for confidence coming off an interesting pregame situation to say the least. Miami has the short rest advantage with no travel and we are not seeing this line do much which is fair with both teams coming off favorite wins last week. This could be the best spot to catch Buffalo at in a while with its defense coming into the season with some concerns and Miami now looking to improve upon its 20 and 14 point outputs in the two meetings last season. The Dolphins scored just 20 points last week against the Jaguars but did manage 400 yards of offense and based on the NFL yard per point average over the last five years, that normally equates to 27 points. The Dolphins have already ruled out Raheem Mostert while DeVon Achane is listed as a gametime decision and this could be a big issue but neither were involved much in the running game last week and Jeff Wilson is more than a capable backup. The Bills opened things up in the second half after falling behind 17-3 but the win was still in jeopardy but Arizona failed on a fourth-and-7 from the Buffalo 29-yard line with just 26 seconds left. As mentioned, the defense was a concern coming in and with the exception of Greg Rousseau, it was not a clean effort against a not so great offense. Buffalo will need a better effort here and could struggle on the back end with the Miami speed. On offense, quarterback Josh Allen completed 18 of his 23 passes for 232 yards and scored four total touchdowns, including two rushing touchdowns, on his way to a 75.1 PFF overall grade. Allen was willing to push the ball downfield, too, averaging 9.7 ypa but no clear No. 1 receiver emerged with Keon Coleman leading with five targets with seven others getting between two and three. This is not necessarily a bad thing spreading it around no go to guy causes Allen to try and do too much and it nearly cost him. His wrist injury is on the non-throwing hand but that can affect other areas of his game. Having lost four straight and nine of the last 10 in this series, the Dolphins break through Thursday. 10* (104) Miami Dolphins

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Monday Star Attraction. The 49ers fell just short once again as they made it to the Super Bowl for the second time in five years but lost to Kansas City yet again and it was their third Super Bowl loss in the last 12 seasons. They are favored to win the NFC once again but the conference is getting stronger and this will be an interesting year to see how they handle an offseason that was not a smooth one and how they can recover from yet another close call. This is still one of the best rosters in the league but this is not a good spot in the opener against a legitimate team. Since 2000, Super Bowl losers have gone 5-19 ATS in the opening week the following season and while it has leveled out somewhat more recently (3-3 ATS L6), those three winners did not go against the best of competition, the last two opponents being the 2023 Patriots and 2019 Panthers which went a combined 9-24 those seasons and the 2018 Texans which were a respectable 10-6. Additionally, Monday night favorites have been bankroll burners, going 19-41-1 ATS since 1980 and this is all based on the public riding those sides with inflated numbers. Expectations are high for the Jets for a second straight season following last year when their season was basically over after four snaps when Aaron Rodgers went down with an Achilles injury. It was up to Zack Wilson to take over the offense and it was a disaster with New York finishing dead last in the league in Offensive EPA and Offensive Passing EPA and they averaged 10.4 ppg in their 10 losses. Rodgers is not the same quarterback he once was is our guess after not seeing him in a while but he will breathe life into the offense. The defense kept the Jets respectable last season as they were No. 3 in Defensive EPA thanks to an outstanding secondary which should be even better with safety Chuck Clark coming back after missing all of last season with a torn ACL. The rushing defense was an issue but Quinnen Williams can still dominate and the signing of Leki Fotu could be a huge addition. Anything over a field goal is a bonus and it would not be surprising to see this number go up slightly with public money not hitting the 49ers yet. 10* (481) New York Jets

This is a play on the WASHINGTON COMMANDERS for our NFL Contrarian Closer. The Buccaneers snuck into the playoffs thanks to a 5-1 end to the regular season which did include a solid win over Green Bay but the other four wins were against non-playoff teams including a pair over Carolina. The closing soft schedule was ideal as through their first 11 games, the Buccaneers were outgained in eight of those which resulted in seven losses. Baker Mayfield got them there last season as he was solid, throwing for over 4,000 yards with 28 touchdowns and 10 interceptions while posting a 94.6 QB rating. Still, the offense finished No. 23 overall and was No. 16 in EPA and while they still have wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and running back Rachaad White, they did nothing much to upgrade the offense. The defense was even further down the rankings as the Buccaneers were No. 18 in EPA as the passing defense was abysmal with a lot of that due to having a poor pass rush. The Commanders finished last in the NFC East as they went 3-14 overall including going a winless 0-6 in the division and while they are not coming into the season as a very hyped team, they figure to be improved. Quarterback Sam Howell started every game for Washington but he is gone after leading the NFL with 23 turnovers and the Commanders had the worst turnover margin in the league which puts them in a positive progression situation going into this season as that usually reverses out and we will take advantage of that in Game One because the lines are still focused mainly on last season. The offense needs a spark as the Commanders have averaged between 313 and 330 ypg and 19 and 21 ppg over the last four seasons and they are hoping Jayden Daniels provides it. To help alleviate the transition to an NFL starter, the Commanders signed Austin Ekeler who is great when healthy and teamed with Brian Robinson, this is a very solid backfield. Wide receiver Jahan Dotson was shipped off to rival Philadelphia but Terry McLaurin is still a solid No. 1 and Washington did a good job of strengthening its offensive line. We focus on underdogs in Week One and Week Two and the Commanders fall into the angle where Week One and Two underdogs of seven points or less are 118-76-5 ATS since 2016. 10* (473) Washington Commanders

This is a play on the NEW YORK GIANTS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. The Giants had an offseason that many felt was left to be desired as they did not do a ton of upgrading and will have to go on after losing running back Saquon Barkley but we love the early buy low spot with no one wanting a piece of New York. Besides us. This is the typical offseason overreaction which we love to go against, whether it be the good or bad hype, and it is the latter in this case with a lot of that directed toward quarterback Daniel Jones who is back after an injury filled 2023 season which included a torn ACL in Week Nine. He looked below average in the preseason but we cannot take too much out of that. The biggest problem on offense last season was not necessarily the loss of Jones but it was the offensive line as they allowed an NFL worst 85 sacks, 20 more than the next highest team. No worries about that in this matchup. New York drafted a franchise wide receiver in Malik Nabers and with Jalin Hyatt and Wan'Dale Robinson, this trio could be something special, if they can get the ball and Jones should have time. The Vikings defense showed improvement going from second worst in total defense to No. 16 but Minnesota only had two players register more than three sacks and both are gone and they finished last season with only 43 sacks. Daboll has taken over the play calling after two years and we love that move. Minnesota lost quarterback Kirk Cousins which is a huge loss and they will turn to Sam Darnold who does not instill much confidence. The 6.5 wins for the Vikings are the lowest since 2014 when the number was 6 and they actually have not been below 8.5 since 2015 so the oddsmakers are expecting a pretty big drop-off with Darnold and his 21-35 record as a starter, his 59.7 completion percentage and his 78.3 QB rating. He has been on some bad teams, but there is not much around him here with the exception of Justin Jefferson but he could struggle without Cousins. The Giants defense was not horrendous last season and the signing of Brian Burns was significant. We focus on underdogs in Week One and Week Two and the Giants fall into the angle where Week One and Two underdogs of seven points or less are 118-76-5 ATS since 2016. 10* (460) New York Giants

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. There is no hype in New Orleans despite coming off a winning season as it is in a rare situation of coming off a decent finish but odds have gone the other direction despite playing one of the easiest schedules in the NFL. The Saints are in one of the weakest divisions in the league and it is wide open yet they have gone from +115 last season to +400 this season while their Super Bowl odds are the highest they have been since 2000 and this is just the second time since 2007 that the Saints have had a win total of less than 8 and who are we to question the oddsmakers numbers. Last season should have been so much better as the Saints finished No. 9 in points scored, No. 8 in points allowed, No. 7 in scoring margin and they outgained 10 of 17 opponents and this is where coaching comes into play. Quarterback Derek Carr was not horrible by any means, he just was not clutch and had trouble running the redzone offense. Head coach Dennis Allen is the favorite to be the first coach fired this season and the worst coach in the division now faces off against who we think is the best coach in the division. Carolina had a miserable 2023 season as it won only two games and those easily could have been losses as the Panthers won the two games by two points each. That was the sixth straight losing season for Carolina and the fifth straight season registering double digit losses as it has gone a miserable 24-59. Head coach Frank Reich was the scapegoat and while he was not the issue, we feel the Panthers upgraded as they hired Dave Canales who has resurrected the careers of two quarterbacks the last two seasons, Geno Smith in Seattle in 2022 and Baker Mayfield in 2023 and now his focus turns to Bryce Young. The Panthers upgraded significantly with their pass protection as they signed guards Damien Lewis and Robert Hunt. The Panthers upgraded their defense as well. The casual fan or bettor will look at those two wins from last season but Carolina has potential for a big turnaround. We focus on underdogs in Week One and Week Two and the Panthers fall into the angle where Week One and Two underdogs of seven points or less are 118-76-5 ATS since 2016. Also, Week One divisional underdogs are 37-15-1 ATS since 2014. 10* (461) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Division Game of the Month. This is a spot where we are going against a team that comes into the season as arguably the biggest overhyped team with Super Bowl futures pouring in. There have been only eight teams in the NFL that were 150-1 or higher to win the Super Bowl and then go to 20-1 or less the following season and Houston is one of those heading into this season. Of the previous seven, five have finished with a losing record so we will be fading the Texans here as they are getting the love of their worst to first AFC South turnaround. The fact the Texans had 11 wins last season which was the same amount as their previous three seasons combined shows there should be negative regression and we have the ideal spot in playing against them as they enter the season as a division road favorite with the number continuing to climb. With higher expectations and an AFC South title under their belts, the Texans are hit with a win total of 9.5, three more than they had last year coming into the season. Quarterback C.J. Stroud won Offensive Rookie of the Year but eight of his 10 regular season wins came against teams that did not make the playoffs and while one of those was Indianapolis, the Colts are a different team than what they were in January. Houston also had the Defensive Rookie of the Year in Will Anderson, part of a defense that finished a respectable No. 14 in Total EPA but there was a lot of turnover on this side. Indianapolis went into last season with low expectations as it was coming off a 4-12-1 season, had a rookie head coach and rookie starting at quarterback and its All Pro running back was in a contract dispute. Despite all of this, the Colts opened the season 3-2 as quarterback Anthony Richardson showed flashes but he was banged up early and often and was shut down after playing just four games. Richardson is now healthy, running back Jonathan Taylor will actually start the season, their receiving corps is better and a top level offensive line all adds up to an offense that could explode. Getting defensive end Laiatu Latu at No. 15 in the draft was a steal and should improve upon their No. 21 EPA ranking. Week One divisional underdogs are 37-15-1 ATS since 2014 while divisional home underdogs are 25-13 ATS going back further. 10* (470) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Friday Star Attraction. The Eagles come in as the favorite to win the NFC East and the number is similar to that of last season but their NFC and Super Bowl odds have doubled as they came into 2023 at +800 and it is +1,600 heading into Week One. Last season, Philadelphia forgot how to score as they put up fewer than 20 points in five of their final seven games including a season-low nine points in their Wild Card Round loss to the Buccaneers. What was hidden in that offensive run was that the defense was even worse as Philadelphia allowed 31 ppg over their final eight games. The Eagles did a pretty big overhaul on both sides of the ball as on offense, they signed running back Saquon Barkley to give them the dynamic player they could not find and recently traded for wide receiver Jahan Dotson so they should be back in line with their 2022 numbers. The defense regressed by 70 ypg and 7 ppg from 2022 and Philadelphia brought in a number of new faces across all levels to shore this unit up. The Eagles let seven significant contributors go and brought in more younger talent and nailed two draft picks to bolster their secondary. The biggest move could be hiring Vic Fangio as defensive coordinator. There are three teams ahead of the pack on the hype train, the Texans, Falcons and Packers and these are the teams we will try to find early fade spots and this is one of those. The Packers opened 2-5 last season but closed on a 7-3 run to make the playoffs and then ran away from Dallas early before losing a tough three-point game at San Francisco. The late run at the end of the regular season along with the blowout of Dallas and the near miss against San Francisco has people believing in the Packers and in this case, a little too much. They were +6,600 to win the Super Bowl coming into the season last year and now they are +2,000 while going from +2,800 to +900 to win the NFC and +350 to +210 to win the North. We are not sold. Going back to the playoffs last season, Green Bay was getting 7 at Dallas and 10.5 at San Francisco and now is getting only 3 on a neutral field against a Super Bowl contender. While the Packers are getting the hype, the Eagles are on the opposite end of that following their implosion last season and this is the buy low spot right here. 10* (454) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Thursday Kickoff Winner. Kansas City will be out for an unprecedented third consecutive Super Bowl and it opens the season at home after losing in this spot to the Lions a year ago. The offense had a down season, easily their worst during this run but the defense picked up the slack as that side had its best results over the last five seasons. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes still showed why he is the best in the league as he had no consistency with his receivers with the exception of Travis Kelce and he will have to figure it out again with a couple more losses while getting Marquise Brown and drafting Xavier Worthy although Brown will be out for this game. It might be hard to duplicate the defense from last season as the secondary took a big hit with the loss of L'Jarius Sneed but a healthy Chris Jones still gives them one of the best defensive lines in the league and has a great matchup here. Baltimore made it to the AFC Championship where it lost to the Chiefs and we certainly are not going to play the road revenge angle here on a team that has gone through a lot of turnover. The Ravens will be just fine going forward but the first few weeks could be an adjustment period which we need to keep an eye on. The Ravens do still have one of the best rosters in the league led by reigning MVP Lamar Jackson who came into camp in the best shape of his career. There are issues though as they have to replace three offensive linemen which is significant in this run-first offense that also lost both top running backs. They signed Derrick Henry but he is on the other side of his career. There are also a number of changes along the line on defense but there has been depth there and with a secondary that remains mostly intact, the No. 2 ranked defense in EPA will be fine but early on, we are not so sure. Since the inception of the NFL Kickoff Game where the defending Super Bowl Champions host the opening Thursday night game, with two exceptions in 2013 (Ravens scheduling conflict) and 2019 (Bears/Packers NFL 100th anniversary game), the defending champions have gone 15-4 although two of those losses have been in the last two seasons with the Rams and the Chiefs but this is still a great system play. 10* (452) Kansas City Chiefs

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Super Bowl Dominator. Two things that are hard to go against are first, Patrick Mahomes and his experience and second, a very solid Kansas City defense. Mahomes is Mahomes, no need to delve into that. The Chiefs bottled up the Ravens offense and while Baltimore has a strong offense, the 49ers offense is on a different level and can strike from anywhere. The 49ers were No. 2 in overall DVOA and No. 1 in offensive DVOA during the regular season and Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle lead arguably the best skill position group in the league and they are all healthy and while Brock Purdy has not been on this stage, he carried San Francisco last week and he possesses a confidence not seen from many young quarterbacks. He quietly led the NFL in EPA Per Play and will not be phased. While the Chiefs defense has carried the team, the 49ers defense was certainly so slouch as it finished No. 4 in defensive DVOA and faces a Kansas City offense that has been off all season long. The Chiefs benefitted from Buffalo and Baltimore mistakes in the last two games and they were shut out last week in the second half in Baltimore and they cannot get away with that here. Kansas City has the more experienced team in this situation playing in the Super Bowl now for the fourth time in five years and Mahomes as an underdog has been nearly unbeatable but the all around roster makes San Francisco the team to beat and the line is on our side and will likely remain under the key number of three. Here, we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 after three or more consecutive losses against the spread going up against an opponent after two or more consecutive wins against the spread. This situation is 39-14 ATS (73.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (101) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFC Championship Winner. Detroit did not exactly dominate in its two playoff games but came away with wins thanks to clutch defense and playing turnover-free football. The Lions key here is to slow this game down as much as possible as they want to avoid a shootout and to do that will be establishing a running game which they can do against a 49ers weakness of late. They finished last week with a very strong 61 percent success rate on early downs against a very good Tampa Bay run defense. That will set up the passing and while much has been said about quarterback Jared Goff being much worse when not playing indoors and while true, this is not a horrible matchup for him. He is going to face some heavy blitzing against a 49ers defense that has a great sack rate but when Goff faces a team with a sack rate of four percent or higher, he has gone 15-4 ATS in his career. The Lions defense has gotten a lot of heat as it is considered a big weakness but they come in as the No. 1 ranked DVOA defense against the run and they will gladly accept having Brock Purdy beat them. The big story here is the status of 49ers receiver Deebo Samuel who is listed at 50/50 which likely means he will be playing and we probably will not know a definite answer until right up to gameday and with this number, it is based on him playing so if ruled out, it will likely come back down under a touchdown. 72 percent of the money is on the Lions yet the line has moved the opposite direction and that is actually a good sign as public money has not really entered the picture yet. 10* (321) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the BALTIMORE RAVENS for our AFC Championship Winner. Baltimore has been one of the more dominating teams in recent memory when it comes to metrics and after toying with the Texans last week, the Ravens poured it on in the second half. They are peaking at the best time and most importantly in January, they are close to as healthy as they have been all season. Baltimore is 14-4 overall and it has not been a soft 14-4. The Ravens have gone 7-2 against playoff teams, not counting the Week 18 loss against the Steelers where they rested starters, winning those games by an average of 17 ppg. At home, Baltimore had 10 games and all were against teams that finished above .500 and again, not counting that last Pittsburgh game, it went 7-2 with the two losses coming on last second field goals. The Ravens are ranked No. 1 in total DVOA including No. 1 in Defensive DVOA which puts the Chiefs in a bad matchup. Kansas City snuck out of Buffalo with a win thanks to a last second field goal and the Chiefs are now entering their sixth straight AFC Championship but arguably this is the weakest of the six teams. They outscored opponents by just over five ppg and did not face nearly the same gauntlet that Baltimore did. The Chiefs are 3-4 against playoff teams and played only nine games against teams with a winning record including just three on the road with the two wins coming at Jacksonville and Buffalo while losing to Green Bay. The lone hesitation here is going against Patrick Mahomes who is now 8-3 as an underdog but this is the first instance of a game against a team this stacked and in a situation like this. 10* (320) Baltimore Ravens

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Year. Buffalo jumped on Pittsburgh early and coasted the rest of the way, playing a fairly conservative game in the win and cover. Buffalo struggled through the first half of the season and began 6-6 and many counted the Bills out at that point but they are peaking at the right time as they have won six straight games and finally get the Chiefs at home with the previous five meetings taking place in Kansas City even though Buffalo was able to win three of those. This is the best time to get Kansas City at home with this being the first true road playoff game for Patrick Mahomes after having his first 13 at home not counting the two Super Bowls and it is not an ideal time for this Chiefs offense that makes too many mistakes and has been the least efficient that we have seen in a while. The Bills defense suffered more injuries last week but they will get cornerback Rasul Douglas back who was held back last week even though he could have played. The Chiefs defense has carried this team all season as they are allowing 16.7 ppg but this is a Bills offense that will have answers and quarterback Josh Allen has thrived in these spots as he is 20-6-1 ATS in his career against teams that allowed fewer than 20 ppg. This line opened at 2.5 -115 and the juice has gone up slightly but the number has not hit 3 although that will likely happen once public money comes into play so best to get on it sooner rather than later. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 66-31 ATS (68 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (318) Buffalo Bills

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Detroit picked up a very emotional win last week over the Rams and while there is talk about the Lions coming in flat, this is not going to happen in a Divisional Playoff game. The Lions did enough on offense in the first half to sneak out the win against one of the best teams over the second half of the season and the Lions have a better matchup and remain at home where they are 7-2 with those two losses coming in games where they won the yardage battle in both but lost the turnover battle 3-0 in each game. The one concern is the Detroit defense that has regressed throughout the season and it has been lit up through the air over its last four games, allowing 323 or more yards in each one. However, that has not led to much scoring as the Lions have allowed an average of 21.8 ppg and this has been a significant improvement after giving up 26 or more points in their previous five games with an average of 29.8 ppg. Tampa Bay is ranked No. 20 in offensive DVOA and while it put up 32 points against the eagles last week, that defense did not show up and the Buccaneers put up 22 points in their previous two games against the Saints and Panthers. Tampa Bay played a soft schedule in the worst division in the league and it went 1-3 against the top ten in the NFL with the only win coming against Green Bay which was the only win on the road against a playoff team. Here, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .455 and .550 off a win by 14 points or more as an underdog. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (316) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Star Attraction. This is the classic rest vs. rust argument as San Francisco is coming off its first round bye while sitting starters in its season finale against the Rams. The 49ers should be just fine as most important, they are as healthy as they have been all season and time off for an offense that is No. 1 in net DVOA and a defense that is No. 4 in net DVOA is not going to be affected. San Francisco ranked higher than Green Bay in seven of the eight major statistical categories with the only exception being passing yards allowed and that was minimal. While this is a big number, the last 10 San Francisco wins have come by at least 12 points. Green Bay came through for us last week in Dallas as it jumped ahead big early in the game and never looked back in the wire-to-wire win over the Cowboys. The Packers are playing their best football of the season but had a great matchup last week which is not the case this week. Quarterback Jordan Love continues to bring it as he is coming off another efficient performance with a 157.2 passer rating but faces a better equipped defense this week. The Packers have averaged 28 ppg over their last nine games so they come in confident and with momentum and they had the edge of getting out to that big start last week. on the other side, this is still the eighth worst defense in the league and Dallas failed to make adjustments yet the Green Bay defense was on the field for 89 snaps. Here, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .455 and .550 off a win by 14 points or more as an underdog. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (304) San Francisco 49ers