Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-29-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Portland Trail Blazers -8 | Top | 89-106 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
This is a good opportunity for Portland to jump on one of the frontrunners in the Western Conference. This is a big number for the Blazers to be laying against one of the top teams in the conference but it is more that justified. First off, Portland is a team on the rise as it improved by 21 games last season from the previous one and has a chance to break into the elite. Second, the home floor is one of the best around and opening night will surely make it even more electric. Third, the Thunder enter the season as one of the most banged up teams in the NBA. Kevin Durant is out for an extended period of time while five other players are either out tonight or will be limited. Andre Roberson and Perry Jones will make their way back to the court tonight to start at shooting guard and small forward, respectively, but Durant, Anthony Morrow, Reggie Jackson, Mitch McGary and Grant Jerrett will not make the trip leaving the Thunder with nine active players for tonight's game. This is a tricky situation as the Thunder also play tomorrow night as they are in Los Angeles to play the Clippers so managing this team and the minutes will be difficult. Portland and Oklahoma City split their four games last season and a depleted Thunder team should be no match tonight as the Blazers pull away. 10* (724) Portland Trailblazers |
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10-29-14 | Washington Wizards v. Miami Heat -4 | Top | 95-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
This is a big game for Miami, a statement game if you will. The Heat were embarrassed in the NBA finals last season against San Antonio as they lost four games to one with all four losses resulting in double-digit blowouts. That alone should provide some motivation heading into the new season. However, we also have a different motivator going tonight as Miami will be out to play hard to win following the departure of LeBron James who went back to Cleveland in the offseason. This has been a great angle over the years where we see a team step it up in their first game of the season after the team's superstar hit the road. We recall the Cavaliers doing it their first game after LeBron left as they defeated Boston in 2010. Washington would normally provide a formidable opponent but the Wizards are not close to 100 percent. They made a great run last season and are expect to be a top four team in the Eastern Conference but tonight they head to Miami without some key contributors. Nene and DeJuan Blair are serving suspensions, Bradley Beal is out with a wrist injury, Kris Humphries is out with a hand injury and Martel Webster was already on the shelf after back surgery over the summer. Because of low expectations in Miami, we are getting a solid number which is eight points less than the first meeting last season. 10* (710) Miami Heat |
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10-28-14 | Dallas Mavericks +4 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 100-101 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
This is one of the best scenarios to go against on opening day. It is banner day in San Antonio and we know what that means. The Spurs will be lowering their 2013-14 NBA Championship banner on Tuesday night and playing a basketball game is not at the forefront for the players right now. This is a huge event and with that comes a lot of distractions. Players have been saying that once the banner is lowered and the game starts, they will be focused but that is easier said than done. Now let's go back to the NBA Champion angle. Prior NBA Champions are usually slow starting out of the gate the following season since their lines are over-adjusted to start the season. The last 13 NBA Champions (Dallas, Boston, San Antonio four times, Miami three times, Detroit and LA Lakers three times) have combined for a 40-66 ATS mark (37.8 percent) through their first two weeks of the following year. Distractions and overvaluation are definitely keys to this. We have seen it in the season opening game for the reigning NBA Champions for six of the last eight seasons. San Antonio won its fifth NBA Championship since 2003 after defeating Miami in five games and hosts Dallas on opening night. The Spurs are again one of the favorites to win again this season and Dallas will be out for some revenge after losing in the Western Conference quarterfinals in seven games. The Mavericks have fared well in this matchup, winning six of the last seven meetings against the numbers and the underdog has covered eight of the last nine meetings in this series. Look for Dallas to keep this one close and the outright win is far from out of the question. 10* (501) Dallas Mavericks |
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06-15-14 | Miami Heat +6 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 87-104 | Loss | -109 | 36 h 41 m | Show |
To say Miami's back is against the wall is an understatement as two home losses have put it down 3-1 in this series and it will need to win out to defend its NBA titles. While that may be asking too much, I expect an all out effort on Sunday to remain alive and we are getting some added value on top of it. This is the biggest number the Heat have seen in this series thus far and it is due to the dominance that the Spurs have put forth through the first four games. If nothing else, I expect a close game, much closer than what we have witnessed the last two games. After Miami lost Game One by 15 points, it bounced back to win Game Two and it is in a similar situation here in that it will have two days off in-between games and that is very important for a team that looked completely out of gas on Thursday. Obviously the key is to slow down the Spurs offense which is shooting 54.2 percent in the series. The NBA Finals record for a series of any length is 52.7 percent which show the high level of efficiency. The best player on the floor has not been the best player thus far and when it comes elimination time, LeBron James has stepped up in the past. His 45-point game in Boston in the 2012 Eastern Conference finals, a triple-double against the Spurs in Game Six last year and scoring 37 points in Game Seven shows his ability to take over when needed. The Heat have covered four of their last five games after a double-digit loss and we will see another cover at the very least on Sunday. 10* (709) Miami Heat |
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06-12-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Miami Heat -5 | Top | 107-86 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
After getting homecourt advantage away from San Antonio with a Game Two win, the Heat gave it right back with their second blowout loss in this series to fall behind 2-1. Realistically, Miami could be down 3-0 in this series as it escaped with a two-point win on Sunday to even the series so while many will point to the Spurs as being the dominating team with a chance to really open up the series tonight, we have yet to see Miami play even close to its best game and I expect that to happen tonight. San Antonio scored a record 41 points in the first quarter to open up a big lead and never look back in Game Three and it went on to shoot 59.4 percent from the floor. Lost in the incredible offensive performance from the Spurs is the fact that they had a rough time stopping Miami from efficiently scoring. LeBron James shot 9-of-14 (64.3 percent), Dwyane Wade went 8-for-12 (66.7 percent), and Chris Bosh shot a perfect 4-for-4. Overall, Miami shot 51.6 percent from the floor. The Heat are in good position for a bounceback as they are 4-0 in the playoffs following a loss and going back to 2012, they are a perfect 13-0 in the postseason when coming off a defeat. Additionally, the Heat are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 games following a loss of more than 10 points. While san Antonio has control of the series knowing two of the final three games are at home, this is an absolute must win for Miami and while it is laying more than in Game Three, I don't expect it to come into play. 10* (708) Miami Heat |
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06-10-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Miami Heat -4 | Top | 111-92 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 39 m | Show |
Miami brought home the victory in Game Two and it now is in the drivers seat. The series now shifts to Miami with the Heat holding home-court advantage, and renewed confidence after another series-tying victory in a long list of clutch postseason performances. They battled back more than once and made up for the effort in Game One where they went 3-16 after LeBron James left the game and it was the defense that shined the most when needed. After shooting 14 for 16 in the fourth quarter of Game One, the Spurs were 6 of 17 in Game Two and they closed at 43.9 percent from the field after shooting 58.8 percent in Game One. Miami is 8-0 straight up and 6-2 ATS at home in the postseason so it has done an excellent job of taking care of its home court and while this will be the biggest test, the Heat will again be up for the challenge to not give back that home court advantage right away. Going back to last season, the Heat are 18-3 in their last 21 home playoff games and going back since the start of the 2011-12 postseason, they are 29-5 in their last 34 games at home. The Spurs meanwhile haven't exactly been getting it done on the road as they are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games against teams with a winning home record while the Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (706) Miami Heat |
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06-08-14 | Miami Heat +4.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 98-96 | Win | 100 | 57 h 11 m | Show |
The Heat were defeated by 15 points against San Antonio on Thursday but it was not as bad of a loss as the final score showed. Miami actually had a seven-point lead in the fourth quarter but after LeBron James had to leave the game because of cramping, the Heat crumbled. The Spurs outscored the Heat 16-3 after James left the game. Game Two is now as close as a must win game can be as falling behind 2-0 in this series could be overwhelming. The Spurs showed why they finished with the best record in the NBA but it will be up to Miami to show why it has won back-to-back championships and it will not fall down again. Credit the Spurs for playing an excellent game despite committing 22 turnovers as they shot an absurd 58.8 percent for the game and an unreal 14 for 16 in the fourth quarter. Don't expect a repeat performance of that and Miami definitely caught the biggest break with two days off in-between Game One and Game Two so the rest factor is huge and obviously for James the most. Miami is 3-0 in the playoffs following a loss and going back to 2012, it is a perfect 12-0 in the postseason when coming off a defeat. Additionally, the Heat are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Look for Miami to grab the home court advantage and head home with the series tied. 10* (703) Miami Heat |
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06-05-14 | Miami Heat v. San Antonio Spurs -3.5 | Top | 95-110 | Win | 100 | 84 h 17 m | Show |
The two top teams in the NBA did their part in the Conference Finals and now meet in the NBA Finals for a second straight season. Both will have had ample time off to rest and that is more in favor of the Spurs due to the ankle situation with Tony Parker but all indications are that he will be ready to go in Game One on Thursday. This is the matchup San Antonio wanted as it wants to avenge last season's series loss that went the distance but could have been won by the Spurs if not for Ray Allen's three-pointer with 5.2 seconds left in regulation in Game Six that sent the game into overtime. While the Heat had home court advantage last season, San Antonio controls it this time around and Game One is the pivotal contest for the Spurs. Despite being the elite of the NBA, the two meetings during the regular season were anything but competitive as Miami won the first game at home by 12 points and the Spurs returned the favor with a 24-point drubbing of the Heat on their home floor. I think we can expect a few closer games in this series although last year's finals saw only two games decided by fewer than seven points. Miami won only two of seven games this regular season when it was an underdog and I expect that to continue for at least one more game. The Spurs have covered seven straight games at home and they get the early series edge with a win and cover on Thursday. 10* (702) San Antonio Spurs |
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05-31-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder OVER 206 | Top | 112-107 | Win | 100 | 14 h 60 m | Show |
We had the over here in Game Five and things were looking very good until a 38-point fourth quarter did us in and it resulted in either a push or a loss depending on the number. We are coming right back with it again here tonight. The home team has dominated this series thus far as the host has taken all five games and none have been close as nine points has been the smallest margin of victory. While we could see a close game finally tonight, we are going with the bounce angle toward the total as we are more apt to see a high scoring game which has been missing the last four games. After going over the total in the first game of this series, the last four games have all stayed under the number and not only does that give us a great contrarian opportunity but it gives us value in the number. Also mentioned on Thursday, this has been a series where one team has flourished on offense while the other has been horrible and it has been the home team dominating the offensive numbers 50.7 percent to 41.5 percent and we have yet to see a complete offensive games from both sides which is very surprising due to the quality of these teams. While we are on a run of unders in this series, San Antonio is 6-1 to the under in its last seven games while Oklahoma City is 7-1 to the under in its last eight games so we are going against even bigger streaks and I definitely expect that to change tonight. 10* Over (523) San Antonio Spurs/(524) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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05-30-14 | Indiana Pacers +7.5 v. Miami Heat | Top | 92-117 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
Miami took control of this series with three straight wins after losing the opening game and many feel that after the Game Five loss, it ends tonight. While that may be the case because the Heat are at home, we are getting some great value in this line as they are favored by a bucket more than they were in the first two games played here. Miami had no issues in the first two games played here but we should see a different Pacers team tonight as the momentum from Wednesday is a big factor. We saw it in their last series against Washington after Indiana won at home in Game Two, they rolled on the road following that victory. The Pacers need someone besides Paul George and Lance Stephenson to step up, and some combination of David West, who scored 19 points in Game Five, and center Roy Hibbert could be the difference. On top of everything else, this is the biggest line that Indiana has gotten all season long and while it was not very competitive here in the first two games, it is a different scenario now. With their backs once again up against the wall, the Pacers come through. 10* (521) Indiana Pacers |
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05-29-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. San Antonio Spurs OVER 206 | Top | 89-117 | Push | 0 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
The home team has dominated this series thus far as the host has taken all three games and none have been close as nine points has been the smallest margin of victory. While we could see a close game finally tonight, we are going with the bounce angle toward the total as we are more apt to see a high scoring game which has been missing the last three games. After going over the total in the first game of this series, the last three games have all stayed under the number and not only does that give us a great contrarian opportunity but it gives us value in the number. We have seen the total steadily decline since Game Two as it has gone from 209.5 to 208 to 207.5 to 206 for tonight and dropping three and a half points in a few games is a huge swing. This has been a series where one team has flourished on offense while the other has been horrible and it has been the home team dominating the offensive numbers 50.6 percent to 41.1 percent. This could very well be the game that both teams play a complete game on offense and even of the Thunder can improve slightly from their first two games in San Antonio which won't be hard to do, this one goes over easily. The over is 5-0 in the Thunder's last five games following a win of more than 10 points while the over is 12-3 in the Spurs last 15 games following a loss of more than 10 points. 10* Over (519) Oklahoma City Thunder/(520) San Antonio Spurs |
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05-28-14 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 185 | Top | 90-93 | Win | 100 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
We cashed both the Under in Game Two and the Over in Game Three in this series and we go back to the totals for Game Five as we are again catching some solid value. The last two games of this series have surpassed the number and because of that, the number is now a bucket higher than it was in those previous two games. Additionally, the total is the highest it has been this series (tied with Game Two) that went under the total by 14.5 points. With Indiana's playoff lives on the line tonight, I expect its defense to come up huge as that is the trademark that has gotten them to where they are. The Pacers have allowed Miami to shoot 50.7 percent from the floor during the first four games of this series so now it is time to buckle down to stay alive. The Pacers are now on their first three-game playoff losing streak since losing Games Four, Five and Six against the Heat in the 2012 Eastern Conference semifinals and while it is going to be difficult to come all the way back even with a win here, it cannot do so by getting into a shootout with Miami so possessions will play a big role here as well. Last year in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Finals, Indiana was facing a similar spot as home in an elimination game and buckled down and won with the game finishing with just 168 points scored. I see this game to play out a similar way. The Under is 4-0 in the Pacers last four games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* Under (517) Miami Heat/(518) Indiana Pacers |
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05-27-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 | Top | 92-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
After getting blown out in San Antonio in the first two games of this series, the Thunder responded with a win on their home floor to get back into the Western Conference Finals. The home floor certainly helped but Serge Ibaka returned for Game Three after missing the first two games of the Western Conference Finals with a calf injury. His miraculous return was a huge difference as he provided the type of rim protection the Spurs didn't see back in San Antonio. In the first two games, the Spurs had 120 points in the paint but on Sunday, they only had 40. He is going to be back for Game Four which gives Oklahoma City the chance to even up this series before heading back to San Antonio. The Spurs have covered just one of their last seven road games and on the season, they are only 11-14 ATS in their 25 road games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Thunder have covered eight straight meetings at home in this series and they are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. While this game is big for both sides, it is more important for Oklahoma City as a 3-1 deficit with two games remaining in San Antonio would spell disaster. 10* (516) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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05-26-14 | Indiana Pacers +6.5 v. Miami Heat | Top | 90-102 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
After losing the opening game, Miami has regained control of this series with two straight wins and it looks to take a commanding 3-1 lead before going back to Indiana. The Pacers will have something to say about that however. The series could easily be 2-1 in their favor and even 3-0 for that matter as they blew it late at home in Game Two and lost a 15-point lead in Game Three. Prior to Miami's back-to-back victories, the teams had alternated wins and losses in 13 straight meetings which shows how evenly matched up they really are but it has been the Pacers that have had the trouble of closing. The Heat have trailed by at least eight points in the first quarter of each of the first three games of this series so give them credit for coming back in two of those but also give credit to Indiana for the good starts and another one could mean an even series going back to Indiana. The Pacers shot 12-of-36 on jump shots Saturday, including 6-of-20 (30 percent) on uncontested jumpers, their worst in a game this playoffs so we will see a better performance in Game Four. The Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss of more than 10 points and the outright win isn't out of the question. 10* (513) Indiana Pacers |
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05-25-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder -2 | Top | 97-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
The Spurs are proving to be the best team in the NBA after dominating the first two games of this series at home. The Western Conference Finals now switch to Oklahoma City and this has now turned into a must win game for the Thunder as a 0-3 deficit will pretty much do them in. I expect a turnaround tonight. While the Thunder followed up a Game One loss with another defeat, they are 19-10 this season following a loss and the short price here likely means a cover as well. San Antonio is playing its best basketball right now but the Spurs have covered just one of their last six road games and on the season, they are only 11-13 ATS in their 24 road games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Thunder have covered seven straight meetings at home in this series and they are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Oklahoma City gets back into the series with a big victory on Sunday. 10* (512) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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05-24-14 | Indiana Pacers v. Miami Heat OVER 183 | Top | 87-99 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
We have seen this total go from one extreme to the other as Miami and Indiana combined for 203 points in Game One and then dropped to 170 points in Game Two. The posted totals have reflected the points scored as they have moved each game according to what happened in the prior game and we are seeing it again here albeit ever so slightly. The defenses were not on the floor in the first game but both stepped up last time out or did they? Miami shot 50.7 percent from the floor despite the low point total and it is hitting slightly over 51 percent through the first two games and a return home should keep that going. Four the Heat's last five home games have surpassed the total and while Indiana has played under mostly on the road of late, the Over is 10-4-1 in the Pacers last 15 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The extended time off also helps the cause as Indiana is 4-0 to the over in its last four games playing with three or more days rest while the over is 18-7-1 in Miami's last 26 games playing with three or more days rest. 10* Over (509) Indiana Pacers/(510) Miami Heat |
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05-21-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 212 | Top | 77-112 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
Similar to the Miami/Indiana game last night, we are seeing a jump in this total due to the results from Game One. In this case, the Thunder and Spurs combined for 227 points which went over the total by close to 20 points and now the over/under has gone from a 208.5 closing in Game One to as high as 212 in some places on Wednesday for Game Two. We are going the value route once again and while neither of these teams are on big over runs which would increase the contrarian values, the defenses are not getting the respect they deserve here. While both offenses are very potent, the defenses are overshadowed as the Thunder are allowing 43.7 percent shooting and the Spurs are allowing 44.3 percent shooting and combined they allow just over 198 ppg. The big factor tonight will be the Oklahoma City defense as it was damaged the most in the opener by allowing 57.5 percent shooting no thanks to giving up 66 points in the paint. On the other side, the Spurs have to shore up as well as they allowed 59 first half points. Kevin Durant has surpassed his scoring average in just one of five meetings this season, while Russell Westbrook shot below 50 percent for the 23rd time in 28 career matchups. The Under is 4-1 in the Thunder's last five games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game while the Under is 14-6 in the Spurs last 20 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* Under (507) Oklahoma City Thunder/(508) San Antonio Spurs |
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05-20-14 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 185 | Top | 87-83 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
We are getting some good value with the total tonight after the first game went over the number by 21 points. It was the fourth straight game that Miami has gone over the total as well as sixth in the last seven games and that is a streak we like going against as it offers solid contrarian value. Indiana has been mostly on an under run with six of its last nine games staying below the total and this number again fits. This total is right in the range where Indiana has stayed under the number in a vast majority of its games this season. When the total is in the 180's, the Pacers are 32-12 to the under since the start of the season. Game One saw Miami shoot 51.3 percent from the floor and Indiana shoot 51.5 percent from the floor and both teams are going to be out to tighten up those defenses as they both came in playing well on that side of the floor. Throughout 14 postseason games thus far, Indiana has shot 44.8 percent from the field including 38.2 percent from beyond the arc and that is a lot more realistic of what we should see tonight. The fact that Indiana was able to generate such efficient offense was surprising enough on its own, but the fact it pulled it off against an opponent so familiar with its limited playbook was even more surprising. The Pacers are the better of the two defenses in this matchup and we will see a definite improvement there. The under is 9-4 in the Pacers last 13 home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* Under (505) Miami Heat/(506) Indiana Pacers |
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05-19-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. San Antonio Spurs -5.5 | Top | 105-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
The Thunder lost the opening game against the Clippers but came back to win four of the next five to advance to the Western Conference finals. San Antonio meanwhile had no trouble with Portland after taking two of the final three games against Dallas so it is playing some of its best basketball right now and it certainly caught a break in this series. The loss of Serge Ibaka for Oklahoma is huge as it really affects both sides of the floor. Offensively, he is their third scoring option and during the playoffs, he averaged 12.2 ppg on 61.6 percent shooting and that will be missed. Defensively, it will be even more painful as Oklahoma City had a big matchup edge with him against the Spurs this season. San Antonio's offense averaged 93 points per 100 possessions when Ibaka was on the court, and 120.8 (shooting 51.4 percent) when he was on the bench. That is 27.8 per 100 better when he was out. Additionally, Russell Westbrook shot just 32 percent with Tony Parker guarding him during the regular season and now with Ibaka out, the offense of the Thunder could really suffer. Oklahoma City has been awesome as an underdog this season but I don't like the setup in Game One. While the Spurs don't need extra motivation, the fact they were swept 4-0 during the regular season against Oklahoma City should give them an extra push to not only win, but win big and make a statement to open this series. 10* (504) San Antonio Spurs |
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05-18-14 | Miami Heat -2 v. Indiana Pacers | Top | 96-107 | Loss | -107 | 52 h 50 m | Show |
The home team dominated the regular season series, winning all four meetings and going back to last season, it has been eight straight games since the visitor was able to taste victory. That changes in Game One of the Eastern Conference Finals on Sunday. Indiana closed the regular season on a 10-13 run and it did its best to get ousted in the first round against Atlanta as it got taken to seven games after trailing 3-2 in the series. Against Washington, the Pacers won 4-3 but they were on the verge of heading back home for a Game Seven before a late run on Thursday night sealed a win. This team is clearly still not right and being a home underdog may be attractive to some, but not me. Miami had no issues with Charlotte in its first round sweep and while it slipped up one game against the Nets, they went through them pretty easily. The big key here is rest as the Heat played just nine playoff games while the Pacers played 13 so they will no doubt be the fresher team and on top of it, they are 4-0 ATS in their last four games playing on three or more days rest. This is the third straight season that these two have met in the playoffs and since 1994, when a team has beaten a team in consecutive years in the playoffs and then met again for a third straight year, that team has won again four out of the five times it has happened. Granted, that is the series but with Indiana having home court, Miami will have to win here and it should make a statement in Game One. The Pacers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (501) Miami Heat |
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05-15-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder +5 v. Los Angeles Clippers | Top | 104-98 | Win | 100 | 16 h 8 m | Show |
We won the Clippers on Tuesday and while they lost outright in a very controversial ending, I expect yet another very close game tonight. It is a must win game for Los Angeles and while it is 38-9 at home on the season, the line value is significantly going the other way. If the Clippers were getting 5.5 points on the road in the last game, a typical line move for the venue change would make them a 2.5-point favorite here as home court is usually awarded four points. We are seeing a much bigger adjustment just like the one we saw from Game Four to Game Five where Oklahoma City went from a five-point underdog to a 5.5-point favorite and these 10.5-point swings are simply too much as the home floor is being given too much credit. The last two game has seen the eventual winner rally from late deficits to shock the other team as the Clippers came back from 16 points down in the fourth quarter to win Game Four while the Clippers squandered a late 13-point lead against the Oklahoma City to lose Game Five. What should we expect tonight? I think it is doubtful we see another big lead let alone one that is lost as these teams are just about dead even in scoring differential in this series through five games (108-107.8 favoring Los Angeles). The Clippers are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games against teams with a winning record including going 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Meanwhile the Thunder are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (743) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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05-14-14 | BROOKLYN GM5 v. MIAMI GM5 UNDER 189 | Top | 94-96 | Loss | -112 | 22 h 33 m | Show |
Miami and Brooklyn are in a possible playoff clinching game and while both closed their first round series with overs, I expect this one to stay below the total even though it not an elimination game for sure. Three of the first four games of this series have gone over the total including each of the last two and because of that, we are getting some added value as this total is two points higher than the last game. While a bucket may not seem like much, we have all seen how some of these come right down to the final possession or final free throw so every point counts. This also goes along the lines of using the zig zag or bounce angle and I have mentioned in the past that while the sides have not been as good in recent years, totals have still done pretty well and with us going against a two-game over run, it is even more in our favor. Going back, Brooklyn has gone over the total is seven of their last 10 games while Miami has also gone over in seven of their last 10 games and those are obviously trends that we prefer to fade as recent games tends to not only sway the public but that in turn changes the numbers. The Under is 4-0 in Miami's last four home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400 while the under is 6-2 in Brooklyn's last eight games as a single-digit underdog of seven or more points. 10* Under (737) Brooklyn Nets/(738) Miami Heat |
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05-13-14 | LA CLIPPERS GM5 +5.5 v. OKLAHOMA CITY GM5 | Top | 104-105 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
The Clippers escaped with a huge win on Sunday as they rallied from a 22-point deficit to win by two points to even this series. I think that momentum carries over into Tuesday. Los Angeles shot just 25 percent in the first quarter and trailed by as many as 16 points in the final period before the huge comeback to stay in the series. The Clippers know they can win here as they did so in Game One and the value is on their side as they have failed to cover the last three games against the Thunder. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook have played outstanding basketball in the series, but the Thunder have lost when others haven't produced. The Clippers had success with Chris Paul guarding Durant at times in the second half on Sunday. Though Durant made 7 of 10 field goals after the break, he also committed seven turnovers and Paul is known for his exceptional defense. It is that defense as a whole that will be important tonight. The Clippers have covered 10 of 16 games this season as road underdogs and they have won an outstanding 43 of 55 games outright when playing with one day of rest. The road team has dominated this series since the end of the regular season and while Los Angeles has an excellent shot at winning outright, we will grab the points and take the cover at the very least. 10* (735) Los Angeles Clippers |
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05-12-14 | MIAMI GM4 -2.5 v. BROOKLYN GM4 | Top | 102-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
After rolling in the first two games of this series, Miami got rolled in Game Three in Brooklyn but I expect a rebound tonight in Game Four to take control of this series. The Heat lost all four regular season meetings as the Nets were able to come up with huge plays in crunch-time which equaled three one-point wins and one double-overtime victory. Obviously all of those games could have gone the other way and Miami proved it is the better team in the first two games of this series and it now needs to do so again. Brooklyn shot lights out in Game Three as it went 52.8 percent from the floor including 60 percent from long range on 15-25 shooting but don't expect to see those types of numbers again as Miami is much better defensively. After the game, LeBron James addressed both the intensity that was lacking in Game Three, as well as the inability to keep the Nets from making 15 three-pointers. "We have to be better in Game Four," he said. "We understand that. The loose balls we gave up two threes on, not getting on the floor, we gave up some easy ones. And we can't allow that." Miami is laying an extra point and a half than it did in Game Three but it does not amount to much as it is still a one possession line. The Heat are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss of more than 10 points while the Nets are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games following a win. 10* (729) Miami Heat |
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05-11-14 | OKLAHOMA CITY GM4 v. LA CLIPPERS GM4 -5 | Top | 99-101 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
After blowing away Oklahoma City on the road in Game One of this series, the Clippers have lost the last two games, including the most recent one at home, and have thus given the home court advantage back to the Thunder. Now the goal is to even up this series and avoid a 3-1 hole and having to go back to Oklahoma City to try and stay alive. Los Angeles is 37-9 at home so the loss here on Friday was a rare one and it has not lost two straight games at home all season. The Clippers are a perfect 8-0 straight up and 7-1 ATS in their eight home games following a loss in their most recent home game. Arguably even more impressive is that the Clippers longest winning streak this season is just two games as they are 5-0 straight up and 4-1 ATS following two consecutive losses. Oklahoma City will be no pushover as it wants to take control of this series and while it has won three straight road games, it is just 5-6 in its last 11 games on the highway. Going back further, the Thunder are just 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 road games. Look for a great effort from the Clippers today as they even up the series on Sunday. 10* (726) Los Angeles Clippers |
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05-10-14 | SAN ANTONIO GM3 v. PORTLAND GM3 +1.5 | Top | 118-103 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
We are banking on the third time being the charm for Portland as it looks to stay alive in this series and avoid going down 3-0. The Blazers have been dominated in the first two games of this series, losing by 24 and 17 points and while we were on the wrong side both times, a return home will definitely help them. Portland is 33-11 at home including wins in nine of their last 12 games and it is catching points which is a rarity as it is 2-0 ATS as a home underdog this season. The Spurs are playing their best basketball of the playoffs right now as in addition to the two blowout wins over the Blazers, they dominated Dallas in the final game of their opening series, winning by 23 points. All of those games were at home and while San Antonio is a very solid road team, it is just 10-12 ATS on the highway against winning teams. Additionally, it is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games, losing three of those games outright. Portland has now gone six straight games without a cover and that is playing into this number as well which adds contrarian value to it. The Blazers have covered 10 of the last 13 meetings at home against the Spurs and they get back into the series with a must win tonight. 10* (724) Portland Trailblazers |
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05-08-14 | Portland Trailblazers +7 v. SAN ANTONIO GM2 | Top | 97-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
We played on Portland on Tuesday and it was clearly a horrible call but that won't stop us from betting on them again tonight. The bounce angle has worked pretty well this season after a few years of it going the other way because the linesmakers caught on and have shaded the line the other way but in the case tonight, we are actually getting a better number. That is due to the overall dominance that San Antonio put forth in Game One but this is not that big of an advantage matchup for the Spurs as that game indicates. Portland never led in Game One and trailed by 26 at halftime so it was over early but I expect a much better effort tonight. The Blazers rushed their plays and didn't allow them to develop and that was likely a sign of nerves which was surprising considering they went to Houston in Game One of the opening round and played great. Additionally, they gave up 13 offensive rebounds and way too many second-chance points to a team that places relatively low emphasis on both areas offensively as we mentioned in the Game One analysis. Despite the easy win, the Spurs are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall while going 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win. The Blazers are still respectable on the road, going 6-2 ATS in their last eight games on the highway. It will be far from surprising to see Portland tie this series up but at the very least, stay within this big number tonight. 10* (715) Portland Trailblazers |
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05-07-14 | LA CLIPPERS GM2 v. OKLAHOMA CITY GM2 -5.5 | Top | 101-112 | Win | 100 | 33 h 41 m | Show |
Oklahoma City could not have played a worse game to open this series as they trailed by as many as 29 points and was pretty much done from the start after allowing 39 first quarter points. The Thunder committed 18 turnovers leading to 23 Los Angeles points which certainly is not going to get things done and consequentially, they suffered their worst home playoff loss in six seasons since relocating from Seattle to Oklahoma City. It was the second straight home loss to the Clippers after going down by eight points back in February and we will see a huge effort on Wednesday to avoid going down 2-0 in this series and putting their backs squarely against the wall. Credit has to go out to the Clippers for dominating on the road as they had won just one of their previous four road games coming in and are now just 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. While it was a great performance, Los Angeles was just 17-30 from the free throw line and while it may be considered an aberration, fouling DeAndre Jordan is a definite option going forward as he is shooting a putrid 42.8 percent from the stripe this season. Oklahoma City is 17-9 this season after a loss and the Thunder are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a double-digit loss at home while the Clippers are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games following a win of more than 10 points. Look for the Thunder to return the favor on Wednesday and square up this series. 10* (712) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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05-06-14 | Portland Trail Blazers +6.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 92-116 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
The Spurs won for us on Sunday as they easily took care of Dallas in Game Seven which ended up being a tougher than expected series. Now they have a quick turnaround against the Blazers which finished off their series against Houston in six games and ended last Friday so they have a big edge in time off. Additionally, that last second win in Game Six would have been tough to get over from had Portland had to play shortly thereafter so it will not be in a letdown spot. While the Spurs owned the best record in the NBA, Portland actually matches up well as the advantages that Houston had against the Blazers, they now have against San Antonio. San Antonio does not draw many fouls nor do they focus on offensive rebounds. If the Blazers want to keep the tempo high they should be able to push more easily against the Spurs than they did against the Rockets. San Antonio proved vulnerable at times against a Dallas team with similar offensive and defensive efficiency numbers as Portland, failing to achieve peak play until a dominant performance in the final game. We saw the Spurs barely hold on against Dallas in Game One while Portland was able to win in Houston in Game One and it can use that confidence here. The Blazers have played well the last couple years against the Spurs and they come in riding a 6-1 ATS run in their last seven road games while the Spurs are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games against winning teams. 10* (707) Portland Trailblazers |
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05-06-14 | Brooklyn Nets v. Miami Heat -7 | Top | 86-107 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
By now, everybody knows that the Nets dominated Miami during the regular season as they won all four meetings against Miami. Were they the better team or were they simply fortunate? It is definitely the latter in my opinion as they were able to come up with huge plays in crunch-time which equaled three one-point wins and one double-overtime victory. Obviously all of those games could have gone the other way and Miami will be out to prove that is the case as this is a statement game for the Heat. And because of those regular season losses, they will have full attention here. Miami is coming off a sweep against Charlotte which was no surprise and the extra time off is a big benefit here considering that Brooklyn was taken to the brink as it needed a one point win on the road in Game Seven on Sunday to clinch the series. With the short turnaround, the Nets flew directly from Toronto to Miami so they are at a severe disadvantage because of that. The Heat's seven-day break between playoff series was spent conditioning and battling against one another as if it were preseason-training camp. Last season, the Heat had a long break after sweeping the Milwaukee Bucks and then lost to the Chicago Bulls in Game One of the second round and they will be using that as motivation here. Look for Miami to come out strong, set the tone and eventually pull away for the easy win in the series opener. 10* (706) Miami Heat |
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05-05-14 | Washington Wizards v. Indiana Pacers OVER 183.5 | Top | 102-96 | Win | 100 | 32 h 47 m | Show |
Washington has had three extra days off in preparation for this series and while that could help the defense, I think the offense will benefit more as they should be highly energized against a likely tired Pacers defense. The Wizards went under in their final game against the Bulls but prior to that, they had gone over in six straight games. The Pacers meanwhile stayed under in their final two games against Atlanta as they really picked up the defensive intensity and going back, five of the last six games stayed under. As mentioned, the Pacers could be tired playing with just one day of rest and that will hurt the defense more than anything else. While we are getting a good number based on recent games, this total has a lot of value included in it and part of that is due to the regular season series. All three games stayed under the total and by a lot for that matter but at the same time, the lowest over/under in those three games was 185.5 so you can see the big drop here. Both teams went over in their first round series openers which makes since as it was a feeling out the opposition for both sides and I expect the same to happen here. As mentioned, the over is 6-1 in the last seven Wizards games and the over is 5-2 in the seven games Washington played following three or more days rest while the over is 5-2 in the last seven Pacers home games. 10* Over (701) Washington Wizards/(702) Indiana Pacers |
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05-04-14 | Dallas Mavericks v. San Antonio Spurs -6 | Top | 96-119 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
This is going to be a very popular public play but I am not too concerned with that here as we are getting some decent value in my opinion despite the home team advantages which could make this line bigger. The Spurs have been at the disadvantage in this series at the betting window however as the Mavericks have covered each of the six games in the role of underdog, obviously winning three of those outright. This may come as a surprise to many after the Spurs had won the previous nine meetings in this series but here we are back in San Antonio for the deciding game. We played on the Spurs in Game Six and things were looking good entering the fourth quarter after they outscored Dallas by 11 points in the third period but the defense fell apart in the final 12 minutes as San Antonio allowed 37 points and gave up a pivotal 14-2 run that put the Mavericks in front for good. While the fourth quarter defense was bad, head coach Gregg Popovich said the first quarter defense was worse and arguably. Overall, the Spurs allowed 71 points on 56.3-percent shooting in two quarters in a close-out playoff game and that is something Popovich will certainly fix. San Antonio is 18-4 following a loss this season and while it has been laying a goose egg in the cover department of late, this is the time the Spurs show why they are the best team in the NBA still. 10* (550) San Antonio Spurs |
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05-04-14 | Brooklyn Nets v. Toronto Raptors -2.5 | Top | 104-103 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
Facing elimination, Brooklyn came out strong in Game Six as it never trailed, built a 26-point lead and held off a late rally to extend this series. Now the teams travel back to Toronto for Game Seven on Sunday and while the home court has not been totally dominating, I think it plays a big role in this deciding game. If for nothing else, we are seeing some exceptional value as the -2.5 lines that are available are the lowest we have seen this series and are half of what Toronto opened at in Game One. What has exactly changed to make this line this much shorter than the opener? There is a lot of talk about experience and the Nets certainly have more of it but I feel that is completely offset by Toronto playing this game at home as we saw what experience and a home floor can do with the Nets on Friday. The x-factor here is Kyle Lowry. He, along with DeMar DeRozan, have accounted for nearly 50 percent of their offense in this series but Lowry was just 4-16 for 11 points on Friday so it will be important for him to bounce back. We could also use a poor game from Deron Williams as he has scored 24, 22 and 23 points in the Nets' three victories in this series, while averaging just 12.7 ppg in their three losses. The Nets are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games following a win while Toronto is 18-6-2 ATS in its last 26 games following a loss. Neither franchise has won a Game Seven in the NBA Playoffs but that changes for Toronto on Sunday. 10* (546) Toronto Raptors |
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05-03-14 | MEMPHIS GM7 +8 v. OKLAHOMA CITY GM7 | Top | 109-120 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 32 m | Show |
We won with Oklahoma City in Game six as the Thunder rolled to a 20-point win in a game that was never close from the start. That sets up Game Seven back home for Oklahoma City and even though it has a big home court edge, I expect this game to be a lot closer that the last. Let's not forget that the previous four games all went into overtime so for the most part, this has been a tightly contested series. Memphis was out of sorts on defense and its offense was arguably worse as it shot just 37.3 percent from the floor including 21.4 percent from long range on 3-14 shooting. Not helping matters was going just 19-28 from the free throw line while the Thunder took advantage of their own free throws by going 23-25 from the charity stripe. While we mentioned in the Game Six analysis that Oklahoma City has been awesome this season following a loss but Memphis has been even better as it is 25-9 straight up after a defeat so taking the points with the Grizzlies here is just gravy. They are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games after a loss while going 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a double-digit loss and one of those instances was in this series after Memphis lost Game One by 14 points only to come back and win Game Two in overtime. Meanwhile, the Thunder are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a win of more than 10 points. Winning here is no easy task but Memphis has done it twice in this series so we won't see an intimidated team come Saturday. 10* (541) Memphis Grizzlies |
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05-02-14 | San Antonio Spurs -3 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 111-113 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
We are going against the trends here and banking on the Spurs putting together a dominating performance for the first time in this series. Coming into the playoffs, San Antonio had won eight straight meetings against the Mavericks and the majority of those were not close but now San Antonio is barely getting by. Down 2-1, the Spurs have fought back with two straight wins but they were close enough where Dallas was able to cover both and it has now covered all five games in this series. Going back, the Mavericks are 6-0 ATS in their last six games while the Spurs are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games. Those records I feel are playing into this number as the last time these two teams met in Dallas, San Antonio was favored by 4.5 points and now it has dropped a point and a half since then. This is the spot where a top seed comes to play and while Dallas seems to have nothing left in tank, the Spurs look like they are just now getting comfortable and ready to send a knockout blow. They have found the way to beat Dallas with their solid pick-and-roll offense and it was in fine form in Game Five as the Spurs outscored Dallas 54-28 in the paint and on the night, San Antonio had five different players score over 15 points. Despite the cover struggles in this series, the Spurs have covered seven of the last 10 meetings in Dallas and going back, the Mavericks are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games. 10* (533) San Antonio Spurs |
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05-01-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 v. Memphis Grizzlies | Top | 104-84 | Win | 100 | 27 h 43 m | Show |
This has been an incredible series. After Oklahoma City won the first game by 14 points, the last four games have been especially close, so close that they all went into overtime which is a new record for consecutive overtime games in a playoff series. For the Thunder to advance, they have to win here and then win back home which has been no easy feat as the Grizzlies have won the last two games played in Oklahoma City. Slow starts have killed the Thunder as they have had to rally numerous times just to force the extra session including Game Five where they had to rally from a 20-point deficit and the biggest lead they had the entire game was just one point. The offense has had trouble against the Memphis defense as the Thunder are shooting just 39.7 percent from the floor and while Kevin Durant is averaging 28.5 ppg in the series, his offensive efficiency has been horrid. They need to have better ball distribution which I mentioned on Saturday when we took the Thunder and it worked as Reggie Jackson came though by scoring 32 points and they need another effort from someone other than Durant or Russell Westbrook. Oklahoma City has won two of the four games played in Memphis this season and with their backs squarely against the wall, the Thunder are forced to make it one more. They are 16-9 this season following a loss while going 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are 4-10-2 ATS in their last 16 games following a win. Oklahoma City pulls away to love another day. 10* (525) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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04-30-14 | Portland Trailblazers v. Houston Rockets UNDER 214 | Top | 98-108 | Win | 100 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
We won with the Wizards/Bulls under last night and we are playing this one for a lot of the same reasons and it is considered even more of a contrarian play. This has quietly been one of the best playoff series as three of the four games have gone into overtime and that certainly has not helped the under. All four games of this series have gone over the total and going back to the regular season and last year, 11 straight meetings have surpassed the total. The over/under has stayed pretty consistent though as the linesmakers know they cannot set this one very much higher as it is at a very high number already. We played the under in Game Three and that obviously did not come through but it is based on the contrarian aspect as well as what was stated in the other analysis. These were two of the highest scoring teams in the NBA during the regular season and while it has carried over, the shooting has been average. Portland has shot 46.4 percent from the floor while Houston has shot 43.8 percent from the floor in the first four games so it has been about pace, and overtime, and as long as the shooting percentages remain poor, this definitely has a chance of busting the over streak. With Houston trailing 3-1 in this series and now playing back home in a must win situation, this is the game where the defensive effort is picked up. When breaking down by quarter, the magic number is 54 which is the average per quarter to hit the total and through the first four games, the under is 8-6-2 for quarters that have stayed below the 54-point plateau so there have been more lower scoring periods than higher scoring ones which is the ultimate goal. 10* Under (519) Portland Trailblazers/(520) Houston Rockets |
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04-29-14 | GOLDEN STATE GM5 v. LA CLIPPERS GM5 -5.5 | Top | 103-113 | Win | 100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
With all of the controversy surrounding their owner, the Clippers came out flat in Game Four, fell behind by as many as 24 points and now have to head home in search of their old winning ways. The good news is that two of the last three games are at home where Los Angeles is 35-8 on the season and while this isn't considered a true must win game just yet, it is as close as you can get. We played on Golden St. in Game Four with the thinking that Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson would bounce back from a poor shooting game in the previous contest and that proved correct as they went a combined 10-22 from long range and as a team, Golden St. shot 55.4 percent from the floor. While the Warriors may have the momentum now, the Clippers will put the distractions aside and come out with a big effort in Game Five. Los Angeles has been one of the best bounceback teams in the NBA this year as it is 20-6 straight up and 19-7 ATS following a loss which includes going 7-1 following a double-digit loss, winning those games by an average of 14.7 ppg. Meanwhile, the Warriors are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a win of more than 10 points. 10* (512) Los Angeles Clippers |
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04-29-14 | Washington Wizards v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 184 | Top | 75-69 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
In what was expected to be a low scoring series, the first four games between Washington and Chicago have all gone over the total. We have seen the over/under steadily rise from the opening game and while we are getting roughly the same number as in Game Four, it is still on the value side and we are able to get a number a little bit higher. The key here is the Chicago defense which has not looked like the typical Chicago defense as it has allowed at least 97 points in each game, although one of those did go into overtime. The Bulls allowed 91.8 ppg during the regular season which was the fewest in the league and their 43 percent shooting allowed was second best. They have allowed Washington to shoot 44.7 percent which isn't bad but the first two games as home were not good. The good thing is that Chicago has gotten progressively better in each game and we will see a big bounceback at home after allowing the Wizards to shoot 48.7 percent in those first two games in Chicago. The Bulls have gone under the total in 20 of 32 games when they are favored at home and while Washington has been more of an over team throughout the season, I fully expect the home team to dictate the pace and clamp down on defense to keep this series alive. 10* Under (507) Washington Wizards/(508) Chicago Bulls |
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04-28-14 | Atlanta Hawks v. Indiana Pacers -6.5 | Top | 107-97 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
As bad as Indiana has looked at times in this series, it is in good position as it has regained the home court advantage following the victory in Atlanta on Saturday. The Pacers have looked horrible in two of the four games and while they didn't look as bad in Game Four, it was far from a strong effort. Back home, I expect the Pacers make a statement and seize control of this series as this is the perfect opportunity to reestablish themselves as the top team in the Eastern Conference. Lose tonight and they'll go back to Atlanta, where the Pacers have won only three times since December 2006, facing elimination. It has been more than a month since the Pacers starters have strung together consecutive wins and for a top seed, that is certainly a troublesome statement but once they have forced upon themselves with erratic play. The fact of the matter is that Indiana is 36-7 at home despite some recent struggles and while covering has been few and far between, the last game here resulted in a Pacers runaway and we are actually getting a better number this time around. While the Hawks are the only team in the league to win at Indiana twice this season, they are 13 games under .500 on the road and if they are not hitting from long range, which did not happen in the last game here, they have no chance and expect to see the lockdown Indiana defense to again do a great job on the perimeter. 10* (504) Indiana Pacers |
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04-27-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Golden State Warriors +2 | Top | 97-118 | Win | 100 | 6 h 30 m | Show |
The Clippers nearly blew an 18-point lead in Game Three but were able to hold on and pullout the two-point win on Thursday. Los Angeles now has the series lead at 2-1 which makes this a must win for the Warriors and I expect them to get it done. They were able to stay within reach in Game Three despite Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson going a combined 5-19 from long range and the duo tends to respond following poor efforts in their last game. It was a disappointing loss for Golden St. which took over home court after winning one game in Los Angeles but it can again seize control of home court with a win here. The home team had won seven straight in this series prior to the playoffs and going back, the host is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings while the Clippers have covered just once in the last six meetings in Golden St. As mentioned in Thursday's analysis, the Warriors are a rare home underdog and they are now 2-0-1 ATS on the season in this role. They have been solid underdogs all season, going 9-3 ATS as underdogs of fewer than six points and following a loss, Golden St. is 23-9 on the year. 10* (756) Golden St. Warriors |
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04-25-14 | Houston Rockets v. Portland Trailblazers UNDER 216 | Top | 121-116 | Loss | -107 | 29 h 13 m | Show |
You will hear me talk about the bounce angle, or the zig zag, during the NBA playoffs and while it relates a lot to sides, it has become a lot more powerful with totals as we can catch some excellent value along the way. I feel that is the case here for Game Three between Houston and Portland as we are seeing the total inch up from the first two contests. This is a move we often see as when games go over or under, the next game will take that into account to avoid the public bet of a reoccurrence. And the reoccurrence here is going to have the public all over the over once again. Not only have the first two games of this series gone over but going back to the regular season, all six meeting have surpassed the number. Going back even further, the last nine meetings have gone over the total so you know where the public will be lined up on Friday. These were two of the highest scoring teams in the NBA during the regular season and while it has carried over, the shooting has been average. Portland has shot 45.3 percent from the floor while Houston has shot 42.1 percent from the floor in the first two games so it has been about pace and as long as the shooting percentages remain poor, we should be fine. Going even further contrarian, Portland has gone over the total in five straight games going back to the regular season so that adds some more value. Look for the over streak to be broken on Friday. 10* Under (743) Houston Rockets/(744) Portland Trailblazers |
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04-24-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Golden State Warriors +1.5 | Top | 98-96 | Loss | -103 | 35 h 60 m | Show |
Many may question the mindset of Golden St. after it suffered a 40-point loss to the Clippers in Game Two. I think the Warriors will be just fine as they achieved their goal of splitting the first two games in Los Angeles after winning Game One which brought the home court edge to Golden St. so coming out flat in Game Two was not out of the question. The linesmakers have made an adjustment in the venue switch in my opinion as the Clippers were favored by eight points at home and are now the road favorites here and I feel it is too much of an overadjustment. Golden St. had a rough stretch in the middle of the season at home that concluded in February with a 16-point loss against Charlotte but since then, it has gotten some of its swagger back as it has gone 13-5 over its last 18 games at home which isn't out of this world but it dwarfs its 9-8 home stretch just prior to that. The Clippers have been no slouches on the road after an average start as they are 9-3 in their last 12 games on the highway and while that includes going 4-1-1 ATS as road favorites, they were favorites against non-playoff teams only. The Warriors have been a great bounceback team coming off poor efforts. They are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game while going 12-2-2 ATS in their last 16 games following a loss of more than 10 points including a 6-1-21 ATS record this season. The home team won all four meetings during the regular season and this is just the third time Golden St. has been a home underdog all season, going 1-0-1 ATS the first two times. 10* (738) Golden St. Warriors |
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04-23-14 | Dallas Mavericks v. San Antonio Spurs OVER 198 | Top | 113-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
You will hear me talk about the bounce angle, or the zig zag, during the NBA playoffs and while it relates a lot to sides, it has become a lot more powerful with totals as we can catch some excellent value along the way. Dallas and San Antonio square off tonight for Game Two and the Mavericks still have to be hurting from blowing a 10-point fourth quarter lead as the Spurs went on a 14-0 run to take the opener. That game stayed well below the total, by 28 points to be exact, and because of that we are catching a great number in Game Two. The first game total closed at 203 and for tonight, we are seeing a lot of 198 totals out there so we can use the bounce angle to our advantage. This is a move we often see as when games go over or under, the next game will take that into account to avoid the public bet of a recurrence. While this is a purely situational theory, the matchup is on our side as well. Three of the four regular season meetings went over the total and the one game that did stay under, enough points were scored to surpass what we are given tonight. These are two of the highest scoring teams in the NBA and during the regular season, the Spurs and Mavericks ranked second and fourth in shooting percentage respectively and that was not on display in Game One but we should see a significant improvement tonight. Rest is key as Dallas is 8-0 to the over in its last eight games playing with two days rest while the Spurs are 7-2 to the over in their last nine games playing with two days rest. 10* Over (729) Dallas Mavericks/(730) San Antonio Spurs |
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04-22-14 | Atlanta Hawks v. Indiana Pacers -7 | Top | 85-101 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
The Pacers were one of five higher seeds to lose the first game of their series and so far the Clippers bounced back to win Game Two, and handily, with the four remaining teams still to play. Those five teams are already in a hole as they have lost home court advantage and losing the second game would be a disaster for the rest of them including Indiana which has really fallen on some hard times, Getting booed on their home floor cannot have felt very good and if there is any character left for this team, we will see it tonight. We are actually laying a shorter price than we did in Game One and with Atlanta having now covered six straight games, this one fall right into our wheelhouse. Indiana was outscored by eight points at the free throw line in Game One, which was the difference in the final score, and this was similar to the Memphis/Oklahoma City game where the Grizzlies were outscored by 10 points from the line in the opener but made that up in the second game. I expect a similar result here and that is only one factor that the Pacers should turn around tonight. The Hawks are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game and while the Pacers ATS run has been dismal, I expect a big rebound on Tuesday night. 10* (722) Indiana Pacers |
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04-21-14 | Memphis Grizzlies +7.5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | Top | 111-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
Oklahoma City rolled in Game One of this series on Saturday as it won by 14 points but look for Memphis to play a much better game tonight. The Grizzlies never led, trailed by as many as 25 points and shot just 36.3 percent from the floor. The big difference however was at the free throw line as Memphis was just 18-31 while the Thunder went 28-32 from the charity stripe. The Grizzlies came into this series riding a five-game winning streak and they were one of the best teams in the league after a slow start as they went 35-13 over their last 48 games of the regular season and bouncing back from losses was the key. After a five-game losing streak in mid-December, Memphis won 16 of its last 18 games following a loss covering 13 of those games. This included a 6-1 ATS mark as underdogs with six of those being outright wins. This sets up similar to last season, in two different instances. Memphis lost Game One against the Clippers by 11 points but played much better in Game Two, losing by just a bucket before going on to win the next four games. In the second round against Oklahoma City, the Grizzlies lost the first game and then went on to win four straight. Memphis has covered four of its last five games following a double-digit loss and that run continues tonight. 10* (717) Memphis Grizzlies |
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04-20-14 | Washington Wizards v. Chicago Bulls -4.5 | Top | 102-93 | Loss | -103 | 52 h 40 m | Show |
Chicago got a pretty favorable draw in the postseason and it came about by losing its final regular season game of the season at Charlotte. The Bulls dropped to the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference which means a series against Washington instead of Brooklyn and possible date with Indiana instead of Miami and both of those are much favorable matchups. Chicago is a dangerous team with its stifling defense and even though Washington won the regular season series 2-1, the majority of the Wizards players have no playoff experience. Washington was definitely a pleasant surprise this season but it finished only six games over .500 and even worse, it went 4-11 against other playoff teams since the All-Star break. Conversely, the Bulls have been one of the best team in the league even without superstar Derrick Rose. The Bulls, after their 12-18 start, finished 36-16, the best record in the Eastern Conference over that period. While many teams would fear playing Indiana or Miami, it is those teams that should fear playing the Bulls. The last thing Chicago wants is to give the home floor to Washington so it has to get out of town with a sweep which I fully expect. The Bulls are 14-4-1 ATS in their last 19 games following a loss while the Wizards are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games against teams with a winning home record. Chicago won 22 of its 30 games when favored at home and with a substantial postseason experience edge, its gets out to a quick start in this series. 10* (714) Chicago Bulls |
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04-20-14 | Dallas Mavericks +9 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 85-90 | Win | 100 | 46 h 41 m | Show |
The Spurs have dominated the Mavericks the last two seasons, winning all eight regular season meetings while covering six of those including three of four this season. That is a big reason this is the biggest line Dallas has seen this season against San Antonio and by a big margin for that matter. The first two games in San Antonio, the Spurs were favored by 5.5 and 6.5 points and while one was a blowout, the Mavericks covered the other matchup. Dallas has been solid on the road with a 23-18 record and it has covered six of its last seven on the highway, winning six of those outright with the only loss coming by just a single point in the season finale at Memphis in overtime. The Spurs once again had a spectacular season but they went just 3-3 down the stretch not counting the regular season finale when they rested their starters. San Antonio has had home court advantage numerous times over the years but surprisingly, it has struggled to get out of the first two games with two wins especially when the Spurs enter the postseason not on a winning streak like it did in 2012 when it came into the playoffs on a 10-game winning streak. Dallas is 11-5 ATS this season as an underdog of four or more points while going a perfect 2-0 ATS when getting eight or more points. That included an outright win in Indiana and a narrow loss in Miami. Additionally, the Mavericks are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* (709) Dallas Mavericks |
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04-19-14 | Atlanta Hawks v. Indiana Pacers -7.5 | Top | 101-93 | Loss | -104 | 33 h 46 m | Show |
With everyone down on Indiana, this is a statement game for the Pacers. They backed into the top seed as Miami pretty much gave up the number one seed by resting starters down the stretch but Indiana likely would have gotten the top seed anyway. We won with Indiana in its second to last game against the Thunder and that was a big win as it halted a 3-8 stretch and then a season ending win over Orlando provides them some much needed momentum heading into the postseason. One of those losses during that stretch came at home against Atlanta where the Pacers lost by 19 points and the game was not even that close as they never led and trailed by as many as 35 points. Now it is payback time. The Hawks finished strong as they went 6-2 over their last eight games and they have won three straight on the highway but this is now a whole different ballgame. Overall, Atlanta is 14-27 on the road which is the worst road record of all teams that are in the postseason and while it went 6-0 as a road favorite, it went just 8-26 as a road underdog. The Hawks are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game while Indiana is a very solid 8-2 ATS as a favorite between 6 and 8.5 points. This is rematch of the first round series from a season ago in which the Pacers won 4-2 and that included a 17-point win in Game One and I expect more of the same this year in the opener. 10* (706) Indiana Pacers |
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04-19-14 | Brooklyn Nets v. Toronto Raptors -2.5 | Top | 94-87 | Loss | -103 | 26 h 17 m | Show |
Game One of any NBA Playoff series is important for the home team as a loss gives the home court edge to the opponent and we are getting a very good price with Toronto in this opening game. The Raptors won the Atlantic Division by four games over Brooklyn and locked down the number three seed in the Eastern Conference and they hope to take advantage of a Nets teams that struggled down the stretch of the regular season, losing four of their last five games. Toronto finished 26-15 at home which was just the fifth best home record in the Eastern Conference but after a 3-7 start, the Raptors went 23-8 down the stretch at home. Brooklyn went 16-25 on the road which is the second worst road record of all playoff teams and it wasn't exactly competitive down the stretch, going 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games and overall they won just seven of 23 games when listed as road underdogs. Even worst, Brooklyn is 2-8 ATS this season as an underdog of fewer than four points. The Raptors success can be attributed to not putting together big losing skids and they have won 12 of their last 14 games following a loss while going back, they are 17-4-1 ATS in their last 22 games following a loss. This has been a close series with each team winning two games including one each on the opponents home floor but the biggest blowout came here in the second meeting with the Raptors winning by 16 points. 10* (702) Toronto Raptors |
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04-16-14 | Chicago Bulls v. Charlotte Bobcats | Top | 86-91 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
This is one of the few games on the Wednesday card that involves two teams still playing for something and in this cased, it is playoff seeding. The Bulls are tied with the Raptors, which play the Knicks tonight, for third place in the Eastern Conference and while they are locked into a homecourt advantage in the first round no matter what, Charlotte arguably has a lot more to play for. The Bobcats will either finish seventh in the Eastern Conference and be matched against the Heat, or finish in sixth place and face the Raptors. Either a Wizards victory at Boston or a Bobcats loss to the Bulls locks the Bobcats matchup against the Heat. While a Washington victory is likely, Charlotte will not know the outcome until this game is done since that other game starts an hour later. Bobcats head coach Steve Clifford has expressed the importance of this game and not just winning but playing good as he has not liked the effort the last few games. Additionally, the Bobcats should be hungry as they have lost the first three meetings with Chicago and will be out to avoid the season series sweep. The Bobcats are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games against teams with a winning road record while Chicago is just 3-6 ATS as an underdog of fewer than three points. 10* (522) Charlotte Bobcats |
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04-14-14 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Phoenix Suns -2.5 | Top | 97-91 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
The final playoff spot in the Western Conference is on the line tonight with Memphis taking on Phoenix. Two games remain for both teams and while the Grizzlies can clinch the final spot with a win tonight, the Suns can keep their hopes alive with a victory but they will still need some help to get in. Phoenix has dropped the first three meetings in this season series so should these teams finish in a tie, the Suns would lose the tiebreaker. First things first, Phoenix needs to win tonight to extend the season and the line we are getting is very favorable for a team in a must win spot. The Suns have dropped their last two games at San Antonio and at Dallas and they are back home where they are 26-14 on the season including wins in four of their last five. Phoenix is 7-1 ATS this season as a favorite of fewer than three points while going 25-10 ATS in its last 35 games following a loss. Memphis has gotten hot at the right time as it has won three straight games following a 2-4 run. The Grizzlies have been solid on the road this season but they have had trouble beating the above average teams on the highway as they are 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games against teams with a winning home record while cashing just one of their last 11 road games overall. Phoenix lives for another day. 10* (518) Phoenix Suns
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04-13-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Indiana Pacers -2 | Top | 97-102 | Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
Indiana was in control of the Eastern Conference but a recent 3-8 run has the Pacers now tied with Miami for first place. This recent run includes a loss against the Heat in their last game at Miami so Indiana once again finds itself in must win mode. The Pacers have lost two of three at home but their 34-6 record is still impressive and today's line is short enough that a win likely means a cover. Oklahoma City is playing for much less at it cannot catch the Spurs and it is locked into the number two seed in the Western Conference. This puts them in a situation where rest is most important and in the case of Russell Westbrook, he will sit out either today or tomorrow as he is not playing in back--to-back games. As of now, he likely will play Sunday but if he sits, it will only be a benefit to us. After getting swept last year against the Thunder, the Pacers loss the first meeting at Oklahoma City year which brings in a triple revenge situation. All three of those games were decided by double-digits which only adds to the incentive. The Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games against teams with a winning home record and while the Pacers have been on a horrid ATS run, the home team has covered four of the last five meetings. With much more at stake and a number that does not seem to be taking that into consideration, the Pacers are the play this afternoon. 10* (708) Indiana Pacers
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04-11-14 | Detroit Pistons +10.5 v. Chicago Bulls | Top | 98-106 | Win | 100 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
Chicago is playing its best basketball of the season as it has won six straight games, which is a season high, and the last five have been dominating as they have all been by double-digits. It is tough for NBA teams to keep up this pace and this is where I feel the streak comes to an end. We played on the Bulls in their last game at Minnesota and they pulled away late to increase their lead over Brooklyn to three games in the Eastern Conference for the fourth spot and they are tied with Toronto for the three seed so there is a lot to play for still. But this is a big number to le laying and the Bulls are just 2-3 ATS as a double-digit favorite this season. Detroit has had a tough season no doubt after coming in with some lofty playoff expectations. The Pistons had won two straight games including an upset over Atlanta before getting hammered at Cleveland on Wednesday. They have stepped up and played a lot more competitive against the better teams however as Detroit is 5-1 ATS this season as a double-digit under and the lone ATS loss of the bunch came by just one bucket. The Pistons have had a tough time in this series but playing spoiler against their hated rival is the goal. They are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The road team has covered five of the last six games in this series and that continues tonight. 10* (715) Detroit Pistons
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04-10-14 | San Antonio Spurs +2.5 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 109-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
After 19 straight wins, the Spurs have dropped two of their last three games including a blowout loss at Minnesota last time out. Going into Wednesday action, San Antonio had a 3.5-game lead over Oklahoma City which was at the Clippers but either way, the Spurs can clinch the Western Conference with a victory because they own the tiebreaker with the Thunder. They are banged up right now as Tony Parker is out and Manu Ginobili is doubtful but this team is much more than the "Big Three" like it used to be. San Antonio is 15-2 this season following a loss and it wants nothing more than to wrap this up and rest players heading into the playoffs as it would be assured of the best overall record as well. The Mavericks have a lot to play for certainly as they are fighting for the playoffs but are in good position with Memphis on the brink of elimination. Additionally, they want to finally be able to say they have beaten San Antonio as thy have lost eight straight meetings but that still may not be enough here. The Mavericks are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a win of more than 10 points while the Spurs are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss. 10* (501) San Antonio Spurs
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04-09-14 | Chicago Bulls -2 v. Minnesota Timberwolves | Top | 102-87 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
Minnesota is coming off a rare win over a quality opponent last night as it upset San Antonio and I say rare because the Timberwolves 27 losses against teams ranked in the top 16 of the NBA Power Rankings are the 12th most in the league. Firmly out of the playoffs, Minnesota is just playing spoiler at this point and coming off a win like that on Tuesday spells letdown tonight. This is the fourth game in six nights for the Timberwolves as last night's game was a rescheduled game from December that was supposed to take place in Mexico City but was postponed because of a fire. That hurt them considering they have won just four of 19 games this season when playing with no rest and the Timberwolves are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games playing on zero days rest. Chicago is riding a five-game winning streak and is putting the pressure on Toronto for third place in the Eastern Conference as it is tied with the Raptors while sitting two games ahead of Brooklyn for fourth place. The Bulls winning streak has been against some questionable opposition and they have struggled this season against the Western Conference but this one sets up better than most and with having the last three days off, they will come in with a ton more energy. Chicago has won 10 of 15 games as a road favorite this year and road team has covered five straight games in this series while Chicago has also covered five straight meetings in Minnesota. 10* (715) Chicago Bulls
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04-09-14 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Washington Wizards -5 | Top | 94-88 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
This is a big game for both sides as it will play a big role for playoff implications. The Wizards are sitting in sixth place in the Eastern Conference while the Bobcats are just one game back in seventh place. This may not seem like a big deal since there is no home court advantage or the possibility of falling out of the playoffs on the line but it has to do with matchups. The sixth place team will face either Toronto, Chicago or Brooklyn while the seventh place team will face either Indiana or Miami and while the former is struggling, the Pacers are not a team you want to see in the first round. A loss by Washington puts Charlotte in the drivers seat as they will be tied but the Bobcats hold the edge in the tiebreaker because of the 3-1 season series win. The Wizards will be out to avoid that and the home floor will be the difference tonight. Washington is coming off a home loss against Chicago on Saturday but it is 6-3 in its last nine games following a loss while going 5-0 in its last five home games following a loss in its last home game. The Bobcats are on a mini roll as they have won four straight games with the streak starting at home against Washington and it is a game the Wizards have not forgotten as they blew a 16-point halftime lead. The Bobcats are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (708) Washington Wizards
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04-06-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 v. Phoenix Suns | Top | 115-122 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
After defeating the Spurs and ending San Antonio's 19-game winning streak, the Thunder could not back it up with another win as they lost in Houston the next night. That was a tough spot for them to be in but I expect Oklahoma City to bounce back tonight and try and keep pace with the Spurs in the Western Conference standings as it sits 3.5 games back with seven games left. The Thunder are 23-13 on the road and have won 17 of 24 games as road favorites and they are an awesome 5-1 ATS as favorites in this price range. They have won three straight games following a loss and going back, they are 11-5-2 ATS in their last 18 games following a loss. Oklahoma City will not be taking this one lightly as it lost the last meeting here by six points as a six-point favorite and despite that being played just a month ago, the line has come down significantly. Phoenix won its last game, an upset win at Portland to remain tied with Memphis for eighth place in the Western Conference. This is no doubt a big game for the Suns to keep pace but they have not been great against the top teams, going 17-23 against the top 16 in the NBA and they are in a very tough situation tonight. The Suns are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win of more than 10 points and I expect that trend to continue on Sunday. 10* (517) Oklahoma City Thunder
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04-05-14 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Cleveland Cavaliers -3 | Top | 96-94 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
It is a very unusual schedule in the NBA tonight as every team is playing its second game in two nights so we can take advantage of some great situations. Despite being 15 games under .500. Cleveland is still in the playoff hunt even though last night really hurt their chances. The Cavaliers travelled to Atlanta with a chance to pull to within one game of the Hawks for the eighth spot in the Eastern Conference but laid an egg as they lost by 19 points in a game they never led. Time is running out and tonight is a must win with just five games left on the schedule and it is one that sets up great as four of those games are at home and after tonight, they face three non-playoff teams. Cleveland needs help along the way but it can only worry about itself tonight. The Cavaliers are 5-2 ATS this season when playing with no rest and going from the road to back home. Charlotte rolled over Orlando last night to make it three straight wins and it can clinch a playoff berth with a win tonight so the Bobcats will no doubt come to play. They are just 12-21 on the road when playing as an underdog and unlike Cleveland, they have been horrible when playing with no rest. Charlotte is 2-9 straight up and 3-8 ATS on the road in the second of back-to-back games. The Cavaliers are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game and will be out for triple revenge tonight as they have dropped the first three games of the season series. 10* (810) Cleveland Cavaliers
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04-04-14 | Dallas Mavericks v. Los Angeles Lakers +8 | Top | 107-95 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
The Mavericks are coming off a huge win last night against the Clippers and they remain in the same building to take on the Lakers tonight and you can guarantee the energy and focus will not be the same. The victory moved the Mavericks into seventh place in the Western Conference and they lead Memphis and Phoenix by just a half-game for the last spot and the first out. This is obviously a must win game and with Sacramento and Utah on deck, the schedule lightens before facing the Spurs, Suns and Grizzlies to close the season. This ease in the schedule mentally can be an issue, especially coming off an upset win the previous night. The Mavericks are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win while going 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400. It has been a lost season for the Lakers and they are just playing out the string but the reserves that have been thrown into the lineup are playing hard because they are playing for jobs and Los Angeles is once again catching a solid number at home. The Lakers are 4-3 in their last seven home games including wins against Oklahoma City and Phoenix so they continue to compete as the season winds down. This is the third and final meeting of the season between these two teams and while the Lakers have nothing to play for, they are looking to avoid the series sweep as they have double payback following two blowout losses on the road. 10* (528) Los Angeles Lakers
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04-03-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5 | Top | 94-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
San Antonio clinched the Southwest Division last night with a win at home against Golden St. The Spurs have now won 19 straight games, the most in franchise history, and they have a four-game lead over Oklahoma City in the Western Conference with seven games left. They are also in good shape for the best record in the NBA which comes with home court advantage in the NBA Finals should they get that far. There has been recent talk about how a loss could be good for San Antonio and while no team likes to lose, it could be a benefit to recharge the batteries although the Spurs continue to play at a high level as they have covered four straight games and are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games. Head coach Gregg Popovich is not new to surprises and his goal is to be healthy in the playoffs to go after another NBA Championship. If that means resting Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker as much as possible, he will do it, streak or no streak. Does that mean tonight? Likely not but he has rested his players in big games before and it is recommended to bet this one as soon as possible in case word does come out later about resting players. Oklahoma City has been off for three days and you can argue it being longer as its last two games were against Sacramento and Utah so no energy was exerted and the Thunder have been home the whole time. While the Spurs will want to avoid a season series sweep, Oklahoma City will be motivated to complete the sweep and end this crazy winning streak. Even with the Spurs at full strength, the Thunder are more than capable as they are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* (702) Oklahoma City Thunder
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04-02-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Phoenix Suns -2.5 | Top | 112-108 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
Despite being idle last night, Phoenix moved into eighth place in the Western Conference thanks to Dallas losing against Golden St. and now it will be up to the Suns to stay there. Phoenix was riding a six-game winning streak until it lost at the Lakers on Sunday by 16 points as a 9.5-point favorite so it will be out to make up for that painful defeat. The Suns have been awesome this season coming off a loss as they are 20-9 ATS and this is the start of an extremely important, yet brutal stretch to stay alive in the Western Conference. Six of the next seven games are all against playoff teams or playoff contending teams from the Western Conference and this is the first of only three remaining home games to close out the season. Phoenix is 25-13 on its home floor this season and speaking of coming off a loss, the Suns are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Clippers have won their last three games on this current five-game roadtrip that concludes tonight. Los Angeles is comfortably sitting in third place in the Western Conference, three games ahead of Houston so it has some wiggle room for games such as this and that is because of the status of Blake Griffin and Jamal Crawford, both of which are likely to miss tonight to rest some nagging injuries. This is a pair of big absences as Griffin and Crawford are averaging over 42 ppg combined and replacing that production will be difficult. The Clippers have been awesome in this underdog role this season but that has been at full strength but the Suns can back that up with a 10-3 ATS record as favorites of fewer than five points. 10* (524) Phoenix Suns
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04-02-14 | Brooklyn Nets v. New York Knicks -2.5 | Top | 81-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
The Nets won again last night as they defeated Houston but that game was at home where they have won 14 straight games and the road has been a completely different story. Brooklyn has dropped two straight away from home, is 2-4 in its last six games on the highway and for the season, it is 13-22. The Nets are a game and a half behind Chicago in the Eastern Conference for fourth place and that coveted spot will certainly keep Brooklyn playing hard to win but the spot is not good here. It is no secret that the Nets are not a young team and playing with no rest has not been very kind as they are 5-11 in the second of a back-to-back set including going 0-6 when going from home to away. It was a successful roadtrip for the Knicks as they went 3-2 including wins in the final two games against Golden St. and Utah. They head home on a 4-1 run at home despite a loss last time out against Cleveland and taking care of the home floor is big now with just seven games left, all against future playoff teams. The Knicks trail Atlanta by just one game for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference but they are two back in the loss column and cannot afford many more. These teams hasn't played in over two months but the Knicks have not forgotten that last meeting as Brooklyn came into MSG and destroyed them by 23 points which happened to be a revenge game for the Nets after losing at home in the first meeting this season by 30 points. The Knicks are 17-9 ATS as favorites of fewer than seven points while the Nets are 2-7 ATS as underdogs of fewer than four points. 10* (504) New York Knicks
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04-01-14 | Golden State Warriors +4.5 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 122-120 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
This line came out late due to the status of David Lee for Golden St. who was listed as doubtful on the injury report yesterday and remains there which makes no sense as to why there was no line when they came out late Monday afternoon. Nonetheless, this is a big game for both sides with the playoffs looming. Dallas is tied with Phoenix and Memphis at 44-30 for seventh place in the Western Conference which means one of those teams will be home for the postseason. The Mavericks are not playing at their best night now as they have alternated wins and losses over their last seven games following a home win over Sacramento on Saturday. This is their eighth straight home game but it does not set up well following that victory as well as the fact Dallas is just 2-5 ATS during this homestand. Golden St. is coming off a home loss against the Knicks on Sunday and while it sits ahead of the three teams that are tied, it is only up by a game and a half so this game is just as important for the Warriors. They have been great in bouncing back this season as they are 19-8 following a loss and they have been even better of late, winning nine of their last 10 games following a defeat. Their 21 road wins are tied for fifth most in the NBA and they will be looking to put an end to the home dominance in this series as the host has taken the last games including all three this season. A close game favors the Warriors based on the line and we cannot ignore the fact that Dallas has covered just four of 16 home games against teams with a winning record this season. 10* (763) Golden St. Warriors
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03-31-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Indiana Pacers +4.5 | Top | 103-77 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
After big home win over Miami, Indiana went on the road and put up two clunkers at Washington and Cleveland. It has been an absolutely horrible stretch of games for the Pacers that are 4-21-1 ATS in their last 26 games and things are not going to be easy tonight but they are catching a fantastic number at home. This is the first time all season that Indiana has been a home underdog and despite some sketchy losses of late, it is 15-5 this season following a loss and while the cover record is not as good, being an underdog throws that out. The Pacers are just a game ahead of Miami in the Eastern Conference but their 33-4 home record should give them some confidence back tonight. The Spurs clearly are the hottest team in the NBA with 17 straight wins but only six of those game have been on the road and the toughest opponent was Golden St. San Antonio is 43-5 against teams ranked outside the top ten but a much more pedestrian 14-11 against teams ranked within the top ten. Even worse, the Spurs are 1-9 ATS against teams with a winning percentage of .700 or better this season. Indiana falls into a great contrarian situation as we play on underdogs that have failed to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15 games going up against an opponent after having covered four of their last five games against the spread. This situation is 39-13 ATS (75 percent) since 1996. 10* (734) Indiana Pacers
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03-30-14 | Chicago Bulls -4.5 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 107-102 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
Chicago is coming off a home loss against Portland on Friday following a three-day layoff after beating Indiana. The Bulls have been playing good enough to retain their fourth place position in the Eastern Conference but they are far from safe as Brooklyn is just a game and a half back from that coveted spot that comes with home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Even since a 2-9 stretch in December, the Bulls have been one of the best bounce back teams in the NBA. Chicago is 15-1 in its last 16 games following a loss with 12 of those victories coming by more than what it is favored by on Sunday. The Bulls have covered 12 of those games. Boston is coming off consecutive losses against Toronto and has now lost three straight games and eight of its last nine. The Celtics are seven games under .500 at home and have won just seven of 22 games as home underdogs and they are 13-20 ATS as underdogs of fewer than eight points. Chicago has two awesome situations in its favor here. First, we play on teams that are coming off a loss by 15 points or more as a favorite going up against an opponent off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog. This situation is 52-19 ATS (73.2 percent) since 1996. Second, we play against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are revenging a loss, off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog. This situation is 66-28 ATS (70.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (709) Chicago Bulls
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03-29-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Houston Rockets -2 | Top | 118-107 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
This is a big game for the Rockets which have had this game circled for over a month now. Houston looks to avoid the four-game season sweep and to draw even with the Pacific Division leading Clippers for third place in the Western Conference. The rockets are playing exceptionally well with five straight wins and while only one of those has been against a playoff contender, playing at home makes up for that here as they have won 11 straight games at the Toyota Center. Houston has won by an average of 14.6 ppg during the home win streak, it longest since a 12-game run in 2008-09. The task won't be easy to extend the streak but there is definitely motivation from losing the first three meetings, none of which were really close and have been by an average of 13.3 ppg. The Clippers won for us on Thursday as they won in Dallas, bouncing back from a two-point loss in New Orleans the previous night. They have been outstanding as underdogs this year and they too will be out to win to keep hold of the third spot in the conference while taking a run at the Thunder for second place. The situation is just not in their favor tonight. Houston is 18-8 ATS in its last 26 home games coming off a home win while going 18-8 ATS in its last 26 home games after a win by 10 points or more. Meanwhile the Clippers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (506) Houston Rockets
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03-28-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Denver Nuggets +7 | Top | 133-102 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
The Spurs have won 15 straight games, which is two wins shy of a franchise record, following its win over Denver in the first game of this home-and-home set. San Antonio now has a three-game lead over Oklahoma City in the Western Conference standings. Taking nothing away from this streak because winning on a prolonged clip like this in the NBA is arguably the most difficult of any sport because of the letdowns and nights often taken off by players mentally, but the Spurs have had 10 of these games played at home while three of the five road games were at the Cavaliers, Lakers and Kings. San Antonio is 11-4 ATS over this stretch and while it has dominated the Eastern Conference with an 18-11 ATS record, it is just 20-22 ATS against teams from the west. Denver has dropped two straight games but those were at San Antonio and Oklahoma City, no shame in that, and going back, the Nuggets have lost four straight road games. But they have won their last five games at home including solid wins against Dallas and the Clippers, both of which as home underdogs. The home floor has not been great for Denver this season as it has 16 losses which is just eight fewer than the previous three season combined. The reason for the lack of dominance has been playing down to the level of competition but at the same time, the Nuggets have played up to the level of competition as they are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Denver also falls into a solid situation as we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are averaging 103 or more ppg on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half. This situation is 39-14 ATS (73.6 percent) since 1996. 10* (870) Denver Nuggets
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03-28-14 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Brooklyn Nets -9 | Top | 97-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
Despite being 15 games under .500, the playoffs are still a possibility for Cleveland which shows how poor the Eastern Conference is at the bottom. The Cavaliers have won three straight games, their longest winning streak since winning six games in a row in early February, and most important for these purposes, they have covered six straight games. Four of those were at home against teams going into the playoffs but the two road covers were against non-playoff teams from the Eastern Conference. Dion Waiters hit a buzzer-beater to cap a 10-0 run as the Cavaliers defeated Detroit last time out and I think those dramatics have a negative lingering effect here. Taking nothing away from what it has done lately, but Cleveland is in a horrible spot here. The Nets return home following a three-game roadtrip which saw all three games going into overtime. They were on the wrong side of the scoreboard the last two games, losing at New Orleans and Charlotte and they are now 2.5 games behind Toronto in the Atlantic Division but two back in the loss column so they know they cannot fold at home. Brooklyn can catch the Raptors as its remaining schedule of 12 games includes just two teams currently sitting in a playoff spot. The Nets have covered nine of their last 10 games at home and while this number is big, they are 5-1 ATS this season when favored by seven or more points. Brooklyn is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. The Nets have been extra solid coming off a loss, covering six of their last seven games. Additionally, we play on teams in the second half of the season averaging between 98 and 102 ppg going up against teams allowing between 98 and 102 ppg after a combined score of 205 points or more three straight games. This situation is 32-12 ATS (72.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (858) Brooklyn Nets
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03-27-14 | Los Angeles Clippers -2 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 109-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
With Memphis and Phoenix both winning last night, Dallas now finds itself sitting in ninth place in the Western Conference which puts the Mavericks in a must win spot. Although there are still a lot of game left in the season so a loss will not do much damage and this is one of those arguments that says if a team is in a near must win spot fighting for a playoff spot, it must not be good to begin with. That is partially true as Dallas is a good team but it is not part of the elite group in the Western Conference like it used to be. The Mavericks are coming off a huge overtime win over Oklahoma City on Tuesday which kept their pace in the standings but tonight they are catching a team that is just as good as the Thunder and one that is in a foul mood. The Clippers lost in New Orleans last night as they missed a shot at the buzzer to win it and this is an important game for them as well. Los Angeles saw its lead over Houston slip to one game in the battle for third place in the Western Conference and the Rockets have a sure win tonight against the Sixers. The Clippers are 15-9 as road favorites, covering 14 of those games while going 11-5 ATS on the road against winning teams. Additionally, they are 16-5 straight up and 15-6 ATS following a loss and it is interesting to note that of those five consecutive losses, Miami (twice), Indiana and San Antonio were on one end of those losses in four of those games. Here, we play on road favorites off two or more consecutive home wins, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 37-11 ATS (77.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (807) Los Angeles Clippers
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03-27-14 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Milwaukee Bucks -1.5 | Top | 105-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
It may be surprising to see the Bucks favored in a game and while it is rare, it is the correct call here and while they probably cannot be asked to lay many more points, they should be and should win this one going away. Milwaukee has been a favorite only five times this season, going 3-2 straight up and ATS including wins in its last two games against the Jazz and Sixers. The Bucks are back home following a four-game west coast roadtrip where they went 0-4 but were very competitive as they covered three of those games. Despite the Sixers having lost 25 straight games, Milwaukee still owns the worst record in the NBA by two games over Philadelphia. I mentioned tanking yesterday when talking about Utah, and Milwaukee is in a better position obviously but has remained a team playing very hard as the Bucks are 17-7 ATS over their last 24 games. They have 11 more games left, eight against teams that are heading to the playoffs. The Lakers have won two straight games including a 31-point destruction of the Knicks on Tuesday. Those were at home though and the Lakers are 11-24 on the road and even though there was a day of rest, it is still a letdown after that big win and going back, the Lakers are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a win of more than 10 points. Additionally, we play against underdogs that are revenging a home loss of 10 points or more going up against an opponent off a road loss. This situation is 93-53 ATS (63.7 percent) over the last five seasons. Milwaukee is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 games following a loss and look for that streak to continue after covering this short number. 10* (804) Milwaukee Bucks
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03-26-14 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Utah Jazz +8 | Top | 91-87 | Win | 100 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
While this isn't the best television option, this game is on ESPN tonight so it is an opportunity to back a home team in a rare nationally televised game. It has been a trying season for Utah but everyone saw it coming and it now possesses the worst record in the Western Conference. This is the time of season where we have to be weary of teams tanking, those squads that have no chance at the playoffs and are looking for better percentages come draft lottery time. That is not the case in Utah as Trey Burke unleashed on the theory after their recent loss to the Pistons. "We play hard, practice hard every single day. Why would we want to go out there and try to lose?" Burke said. "Wherever we do land in the lottery, that will be great for us, but to try to tank games and lose games, I think, is just absurd." Playing this one in the national spotlight, they will try and prove that. Memphis continues to play well as it has won two straight, four of five and eight of 10 to stay in a tie for seventh place in the Western Conference. However, they are overvalued big time here. These teams played in Memphis a week ago and the Grizzlies were favored by 11 points and now they are favored by 8 points so the eight-point line swing is not in play here which is great for the home dog. The Jazz are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games following a double-digit loss at home and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (770) Utah Jazz
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03-26-14 | Phoenix Suns v. Washington Wizards +2.5 | Top | 99-93 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
We played against Phoenix on Monday in Atlanta but the Hawks could not sustain a solid first half as they allowed 35 third quarter points and their rally fell short. The Suns have now won two straight games on this roadtrip which concludes tonight and going back, they have win four straight games since suffering through a 5-8 slide that pushed them out of the Western Conference playoff standings. The recent run however has inched the Suns closer as they are now just a half-game behind Memphis and Dallas which currently hold down the seventh and eighth spots. So while this is a big game, the line is taking that into consideration as Washington opened as a favorite and it now getting points. The Wizards are back home after a four-game roadtrip that did not go well as they went 1-3 but one loss came in overtime and the most recent defeat at Denver was by just three points. Washington is 4-2 in its last six home games and as the season has progressed, it has been a home underdog fewer and fewer times and for good reason. Since January 15th, the Wizards have been a home underdog six times and they are 4-2 straight up and ATS with one of those losses coming in overtime against the Spurs. The Wizards are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 home games against teams with a winning road record while going 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing 100 points or more two straight games this season. 10* (754) Washington Wizards
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03-25-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Orlando Magic +5 | Top | 85-95 | Win | 100 | 23 h 14 m | Show |
Orlando comes into this game riding a nine-game losing streak but it is getting a significant amount of points against a team that is not much better on the road than the Magic are at home. They are back home after a four-game roadtrip while going back further, six of their last eight games have been on the highway and with a road record of 4-34, that is not a good thing. Orlando is 15-18 at home which is far from spectacular, but despite having the third worst overall record in the East, the Magic only have the seventh worse home record. More importantly, they are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games. The Blazers have been very up and down of late, losing seven of their last 11 games heading into Monday. And Monday plays a big role as Portland was at Miami and that spells automatic letdown, win or lose. After starting 15-5 in their first 20 road games, the Blazers are just 4-11 in their last 15 games on the highway. Orlando is off until Friday after this game so there will be no lack of focus to stop its losing streak as well as to try and rebound from its 16-point loss in Portland earlier this season. 10* (654) Orlando Magic
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03-24-14 | Indiana Pacers +1.5 v. Chicago Bulls | Top | 77-89 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
We won with the Pacers in this most recent meeting that took place on Friday as they won going away and while Chicago is playing with revenge, Indiana is in better shape for tonight. The Pacers are coming off a loss in Memphis on Saturday and while it has been an up and down stretch, Indiana remains three games ahead of Miami for the top spot in the Eastern Conference. The Pacers did fail to cover against the Grizzlies and are now a disappointing 4-17-1 ATS over their last 22 games so picking the right spots at the right times is key and this is one of those. The Pacers are 14-4 following a loss this season, going 10-7-1 ATS but now being a short underdog, a win means a cover as well. Chicago defeated the Sixers in its last game and over its last four games, it has lost to Oklahoma City and Indiana while beating Philadelphia twice. Overall, the Bulls are just 9-15 against the NBA top ten and while the home team has won six straight meetings, that streak ends here. Here, we play on road teams that have failed to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15, playing six or more games in 10 days. This situation is 60-26 ATS (69.8 percent) since 1996. 10* (611) Indiana Pacers
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03-24-14 | Brooklyn Nets v. New Orleans Pelicans +2.5 | Top | 104-109 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
The Nets burned us last night as they rallied from a 14-point deficit including coming back from seven points down in the fourth quarter to force overtime and eventually defeat the Mavericks. That is the type of victory we like to go against in the next game, especially when playing in back-to-back days. Last night increased the winning streak to four games for Brooklyn with three of those wins coming at home where it is 23-11 on the season. It has been a different story on the road where Brooklyn is 14-20 on the season and while they are 9-8 in their last 17 road games, seven of those wins came against teams with losing records. The Nets are 3-7 this season when playing with no rest and the second game is on the road. New Orleans is squarely on the outside of the playoff picture with no chance of getting in but it continues to play hard and has won two straight games including a win over Miami on Saturday. The best part of that win was that there is a day of rest between that and tonight so we can avoid the letdown factor. The Pelicans are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. 10* (614) New Orleans Pelicans
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03-23-14 | Brooklyn Nets v. Dallas Mavericks -4.5 | Top | 107-104 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
With a lot of lines coming out late, this is being released late based on what came out and there was nothing unexpected so we stay with this one. Dallas is coming off a win against Denver on Friday as it rebounded from its one-point overtime loss against Minnesota on Wednesday. The Mavericks have now won four of their last five games and continue to hold down seventh place in the Western Conference as they are a half-game ahead of Memphis and a game and a half ahead of Phoenix so every game is big at this point. Their 23-11 home record is tied for ninth best in the NBA and that includes a 22-6 record when listed as the favorite. Brooklyn is coming off a three-game homestand which all resulted in wins and that extended the Nets home winning streak to 11 games. It has been a different story on the road where Brooklyn is 13-20 on the season and while they are 8-8 in their last 16 road games, seven of those wins came against teams with losing records. They have won seven games as a road favorite but just five games as a road underdog against 12 losses. The Mavericks fall into a great situation where we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are coming off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival going up against an opponent off a home win by 10 points or more. This situation is 53-24 ATS (68.8 percent) since 1996. 10* (712) Dallas Mavericks
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03-21-14 | Chicago Bulls v. Indiana Pacers -5 | Top | 79-91 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
The Pacers are coming off a loss on Wednesday against the Knicks and they now return home in search of a much needed dominating performance, something that has not happened very much of late. After losing four straight games in the early part of March, Indiana went on to win its next four games before the loss against New York but it only covered three of those wins and it is now on a dreadful 3-16-1 ATS run over its last 20 games. While we did not win with them on Wednesday, I feel like we are getting a solid number on their home floor where they are 31-4 on the season, good for the best home record in the NBA. The Pacers have won 13 of 17 games this season coming off a loss and going back, they are 28-12 ATS in their last 40 games coming off a road loss. Chicago is coming off a win at Philadelphia, it second straight road win to move back to .500 on the highway. 10 of the 17 road wins however have come against teams that will not be in the playoffs and while this is a big game for them for their own playoff position, they are catching Indiana at a bad time. The game against the Bulls is the first of five consecutive, and six of the next seven, against teams with winning records and it needs to get off to a good start to avoid Miami creeping up on them as it sits three games back in the conference standings. The home team has won five straight in this series and the Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win. 10* (804) Indiana Pacers
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03-20-14 | Washington Wizards v. Portland Trail Blazers -4.5 | Top | 103-116 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
Portland is coming off a fortunate win over Milwaukee on Tuesday as it took overtime, and 22 points in the extra session, to get the job done. The Blazers are now 2-1 without LaMarcus Aldridge with the only loss coming by just a point against Golden St. they have been able to keep pace with Houston in the Western Conference as they trail the Rockets by a game and a half for the coveted fourth spot and home court advantage in at least the first round of the playoffs. Portland hits the road for a five-game east coast swing after this game so this one is big. The Blazers are 20-4 against the Eastern Conference this season with losses against Miami and Indiana which is no surprise and also a home loss against the Sixers in a game they clearly did not show up for. The fourth loss was at Washington by 10 points so they will be out for revenge tonight as well. Washington lost in overtime at Sacramento on Tuesday to fall to 1-5 ATS over their last six games. The Wizards remain over .500 on the road which is solid but while going 15-8 against the Eastern Conference, they are just 3-8 on the highway against teams from the west with two of those wins coming against teams sitting outside the playoff picture. Portland is 15-6 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season and falls into a terrific situation where we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points in the second half of the season that are outscoring opponents by between 3.0 and 7.0 ppg going up against teams that are between +/- 3 in scoring differential, after scoring 110 points or more two straight games. This situation is 30-8 ATS (78.9 percent) since 1996. 10* (706) Portland Trailblazers
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03-19-14 | Detroit Pistons +7.5 v. Denver Nuggets | Top | 109-118 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
We won with Denver on Monday as the Nuggets won outright against the Clippers by 10 points as home underdogs. Now I feel they are overpriced on Wednesday. Denver has won three of its last four games overall including wins against the Clippers as mention and Miami on the road. The Nuggets have covered all four of those games but now they are in a role that has killed their backers for a while now as Denver is 5-14 ATS as a home favorite this season while going 3-11 ATS in 14 home games against teams with a losing record. Additionally, the Nuggets are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 home games against teams with a losing road record. Detroit has dropped two straight games and is 3-12 over its last 15 games including going 0-6 on the road. Five of those losses were against teams either in the playoffs or still in the mix for a playoff spot but Denver is not in that group as the Nuggets trail eighth place Memphis by 9.5 games. While the Pistons have been horrendous as home underdogs, they are a solid 6-3 ATS this season when getting seven or more points and this is simply too many points with these teams being just 4.5 games apart from each other. The Pistons fall into a solid situation where we play against teams that are revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points going up against that opponent which is coming off a loss against a division rival. This situation is 85-41 ATS (67.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (615) Detroit Pistons
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03-19-14 | Indiana Pacers -2 v. New York Knicks | Top | 86-92 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
Indiana has won four straight games but it has been far from dominating, covering just one of those games and those games were against some very poor teams including two against Philadelphia. After being one of the best cover teams in the NBA through the first half of the season, the Pacers are just 3-15-1 ATS over their last 19 games but that is giving us some solid value going into this one. Indiana has a three-game lead on Miami in the Eastern Conference and with the way New York is playing, it will have its full attention here. The Knick have won six straight games, going 5-1 ATS in the process. The last five wins have come against Utah, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Boston and Milwaukee, not exactly murder's row. They have had issues against the top teams as they are 2-10 ATS this season when playing against teams with a winning percentage of .700 or better. Additionally, New York is 2-10 ATS as a home underdog and the Pacers fall into a solid contrarian situation as we play on teams failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15 going up against an opponent after having covered five or six of their last seven games against the spread. This situation is 68-31 ATS (68.7 percent) since 1996. 10* (607) Indiana Pacers
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03-18-14 | Toronto Raptors -2.5 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 113-118 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
Typically we stay away from road favorites in the NBA unless the situation calls for it and that is the case here tonight. Toronto is coming off a loss at home on Sunday against Phoenix and it has been one of the best teams in recovering from a defeat in the league. The Raptors are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games coming off a loss while winning 13 of those games outright. Playing the role of a road chalk has not been an issue either as they are 6-3 straight up and against the number and they are well aware of what is going on behind them as Brooklyn is now just three games back. After losing six straight games and going 1-14 over a 15-game stretch, Atlanta has won its last four games but it hasn't exactly been the toughest of competition. A win at Charlotte last night was the best of the bunch and now playing with no rest is a tall order. The Hawks are 5-11 straight up and 6-10 against the number in the second of back-to-back games and going back, they are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 home games coming off consecutive wins. Toronto won the moist recent meeting last month at home by 21 points and while that brings in a revenge situation, it is actually not a favorable one for the Hawks. We play against home underdogs that are revenging a road loss of 20 points or more against opponent off a upset loss as a favorite. This situation is 87-49 ATS (64 percent) since 1996. 10* (523) Toronto Raptors
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03-17-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Denver Nuggets +5 | Top | 100-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
The Clippers won again on Sunday, making it 11 straight wins and they are now just three games back of the Spurs for the top spot in the Western Conference. To no surprise, the public is all over them again tonight as Los Angeles is the biggest consensus on the NBA board and could very well be the spot that the winning streak comes to an end although we will still take the points here. In addition to winning 11 straight, the Clippers are 8-2-1 ATS over that stretch and while they have been cleaning up as road favorites of late, the value clearly resides with the home team. The last meeting here which took place last month, Los Angeles was favored by a point and a half and now because of the winning streak, they are being asked to lay four points more. Denver is back home following a five-game roadtrip that saw it go 2-3. We played against the Nuggets on Saturday but they were able to stay within the number despite trailing by 21 points. Coming back home will help as will the fact that they are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games against team with a winning percentage above .600. Denver has won two straight at home and it falls into a great situation where we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (that are averaging 103 or more ppg, after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half. This situation is 37-14 ATS (72.5 percent) since 1996. 10* (514) Denver Nuggets
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03-17-14 | Phoenix Suns v. Brooklyn Nets -4.5 | Top | 95-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
The Nets had their three-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with a loss at Washington as they blew an early double-digit lead. It was a disappointment because it came after their win over Miami and that momentum could not be carried through. The good news is that Brooklyn has gotten back into the Atlantic Division race thanks to not stringing together many losing streaks as after losing three straight back in January and February against Toronto, Oklahoma City and Indiana, the Nets have won their last six games following a loss. Additionally, they have covered the last five games following a defeat and are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss against the number. This is the first of three straight home games where Brooklyn is 7-0 ATS in its last seven. Phoenix is coming off a win on Sunday at Toronto which was its second straight win following a three-game losing streak. This is the third game in four days for the Suns which have won just four of 10 games when playing in the second of back-to-back games when the second game is on the road. Phoenix is now a game over .500 on the road and the win over the Raptors was the first on the road over a playoff bound team since the end of January. 10* (506) Brooklyn Nets
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03-16-14 | Sacramento Kings v. Minnesota Timberwolves -7.5 | Top | 102-104 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
Minnesota is on the outside looking in and while the chances of the Timberwolves getting into the playoffs are slim, they are still holding out hope. They fell to .500 with a loss at Charlotte on Friday and the schedule does them no favors as their next four games are against teams from the Western Conference that are all in playoff contention,. One of this is Memphis which Minnesota trails by six games for the eighth and final playoff spot so while it is big margin, it is doable. And the importance of this game is huge. Minnesota is 17-9 ATS this season as a single-digit favorite of three points or more while winning 19 of 31 gamers following a loss. Sacramento is coming off a loss in Chicago last night to fall to 2-4 on the roadtrip which thankfully for the Kings comes to an end after tonight. The two victories in this stretch came against Milwaukee and Philadelphia, the two worst teams in the NBA so even the poor record is skewed. This is the fourth game in six night for the Kings and that will show come tonight. Minnesota is 2412 ATS in its last 36 games following a double-digit loss and it falls into a great situation where we play against teams that are coming off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog going up against an opponent off an loss of 10 points or more as a road favorite. This situation is 40-10 ATS (80 percent) since 1996. 10* (884) Minnesota Timberwolves
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03-15-14 | Denver Nuggets v. Atlanta Hawks -6 | Top | 92-97 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
After a 1-14 run, the Hawks have won consecutive games for the first time since the beginning of February. Wins over Utah and Milwaukee were hardly impressive and they were far from dominating as Atlanta failed to cover both of them but I am expecting a big effort from the Hawks tonight. Despite being seven games under .500, the Hawks are holding onto the eighth spot in the Eastern Conference, three and a half games ahead of the surging Knicks which host Milwaukee this afternoon. After this, six of the next seven games are against playoff contending teams which makes this a big game for Atlanta. Denver has won its last two games including a huge upset last night in Miami and the Nuggets have not won three consecutive games since early January. They have won consecutive road games on three other occasions this season but the only other time they followed up with another road game, it resulted in a loss at Cleveland. Denver is 2-8 straight up and ATS when playing with no rest including going 1-5 in the second of back-to-back road games. Additionally, Denver is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games in the second half of the season when playing against teams with a winning percentage between .400 and .499. Look for a big letdown tonight. 10* (506) Atlanta Hawks
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03-14-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Utah Jazz +9.5 | Top | 96-87 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
The Clippers have won nine straight games and with that comes public action which forces inflated lines and that is what we have here tonight. Los Angeles is coming off a big revenge win against Golden St. on TNT Thursday and that automatically spells a letdown here. That win improved the Clippers to 28-5 at home which is the best home record in the Western Conference but things have been much different on the road which is the case for most teams in the NBA. Los Angeles is 18-15 on the highway which is very respectable and while it has won four straight on the road, I do not like the number it is laying here. Consider the Clippers were favored by close to the same amount against Milwaukee not long ago and Utah is nine games better than the Bucks. The Jazz are coming off two straight losses at home to fall four games under .500 at home. They are in the midst of a rough stretch but most of the damage came on the road and prior to the two recent home losses, Utah had won 11 of its previous 17 at home including impressive wins over Phoenix, Miami and Oklahoma City. These teams met in Los Angeles last month and while it sets up a revenge spot for Utah, the line value is just as important as the Clippers are favored by only four points less now despite the venue change. That is not a sufficient line adjustment. The Jazz are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a winning percentage above .600 while going 13-5 ATS after allowing 105 points or more this season. 10* (818) Utah Jazz
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03-13-14 | Houston Rockets v. Chicago Bulls +3 | Top | 87-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
We played on Chicago Tuesday against the Spurs and a slow start cost the Bulls as they were outscored by 22 points in the first quarter but made a game of it late only to just fall short. I don't expect another slow start like that and Chicago is in good position for a rebound at home. The Bulls continue to be one of the biggest surprises in the NBA and many expected them to fold once Derrick Rose went down again and was lost for the season. Instead, Chicago is a game and a half behind Toronto for third place in the Eastern Conference but more important, it is a game and a half ahead of Brooklyn and keeping at least that fourth slot is huge for the first round of the playoffs. The Bulls are 17-11 following a loss this season including going 12-2 ATS in their last 14 gamers following a loss and have won their last two home games immediately following a home loss. Houston lost at Oklahoma City on Tuesday and we will play against the Rockets once again as that letdown can still be affecting them. They have been solid on the road with an 18-13 record and have been even better against the Eastern Conference, going 6-3 but they own only one quality road win and that was against Washington. Houston is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 road games after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games while Chicago is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .700. Additionally, the Bulls are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games revenging a loss of 10 points or more this season. 10* (692) Chicago Bulls
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03-12-14 | Denver Nuggets v. Orlando Magic +1.5 | Top | 120-112 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
I believe the wrong team is favored here with a lot of that reasoning based on home/road splits. Orlando is the worst road team in the NBA with a 4-30 record but it is a much more respectable 15-16 at home. The Magic have been playing even better of late as they are 7-2 over their last nine home games losing only to Houston and Memphis, both of which are in a playoff spot in the Western Conference. Denver hails from that conference as well but it is far from strong, especially on the road where it is 11-20 compared to going 16-16 at home. The Nuggets have dropped eight of their last nine games on the highway with the only win coming at Milwaukee. Additionally, they are just 2-7 ATS in those games. Orlando lost the first meeting in Denver by 26 points which is its second worst road loss of the season so there will be some added motivation for the Magic. Denver is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games against teams with a losing record in the second half of the season and despite playing a weaker conference, it is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games against the Eastern Conference. Conversely, the Magic are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games against teams with a losing road record while going 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss. Additionally, they are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six home games following a road loss, winning the last four outright. While neither team will be around for the postseason, the Magic continue to play hard in front of their home fans and they will get their revenge tonight. 10* (608) Orlando Magic
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03-12-14 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Washington Wizards -4.5 | Top | 98-85 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
We played against Washington in its last game as it lost on the road at Miami. It was catching the Heat on a three-game losing streak and that was one of the toughest situations it could be in. The Wizards are now back home looking to gain ground on Chicago as they trail the Bulls by just a game and a half for that coveted fourth spot in the Eastern Conference which comes with home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Admittedly, Washington has not been a great home team as it is just 16-15 on the season but since beating Miami back on January 15th, it has gone 9-6 over its last 15 home games with two of those losses coming against two Western Conference playoff teams. This is a good number for the Wizards and they have prospered all season with a 7-3 ATS record when favored by less than five points. Charlotte trails Washington by just three and a half games so this is a big game for the Bobcats as well but they are still in very good position for a playoff spot as they are ahead of ninth place Detroit by five games. They have been outstanding at home with seven straight wins but the road has not been as kind as they are 1-5 over their last six games on the highway. On top of that, the Bobcats are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games against teams with a winning home record. Here, we play against underdogs that are revenging a home loss of 10 points or more going up against an opponent coming off a road loss. This situation is 92-51 ATS (64.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (610) Washington Wizards
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03-11-14 | Houston Rockets v. Oklahoma City Thunder -4 | Top | 98-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
After snapping its three-game losing streak with three wins at home, the Thunder have now reverted back and have dropped their last two games including an embarrassing loss against the Lakers on the road as 12-point favorites. The last two games were both on the road and I am expecting a big rebound on Tuesday at home before a rematch with the Lakers on Thursday but despite the recent loss to Los Angeles, there is no way Oklahoma City is looking ahead to that game. Wins are of the utmost importance right now as the Thunder trail the Spurs by a half-game in the Western Conference and the upcoming schedule is not easy with 10 of their last 16 games taking place on the road. At 26-6, Oklahoma City needs to continue to take care of business at home. Houston is one of the hotter teams in the NBA as it has won five straight games with three of the last four coming against Miami, Indiana and Portland. Those were at home however and while the Rockets have been solid on the road, they have struggled against the better teams on the highway and are catching the Thunder at the worst time. While they are 8-3 at home against the NBA's top ten, they are just 5-7 on the road and they have played only three such teams on the road in 2014, losing two, so the recent schedule has been soft. Here, we play on teams that are coming off an upset loss as a favorite of 10 points or more, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .750. This situation is 32-10 ATS (76.2 percent) since 1996. Also, Oklahoma City is 8-2 ATS as a favorite of fewer than five points this season while going 19-8 ATS in its last 27 games coming off an upset loss as a road favorite. 10* (562) Oklahoma City Thunder
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03-11-14 | Boston Celtics v. Indiana Pacers -11 | Top | 83-94 | Push | 0 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
The Pacers are on their worst run of the season as they have lost four straight games which is their longest losing streak since dropping four straight games in March of 2012. they avoided a fifth straight loss then with a blowout win at home and I am expecting the same to happen here. Indiana has been even worse at the betting window as it is on runs of 0-7 ATS, 1-10-1 ATS and 5-17-1 ATS but in the midst of these putrid runs, it is a good time to buy the Pacers low. Indiana remains a game ahead of Miami in the Eastern Conference as it is even in the loss column while two up in the win column. Boston has won two straight games and went 3-2 on its recent five-game homestand while cashing four of those five tickets. The road has been a real issue however as the Celtics are 8-22 on the season including a 3-15 run with two of those wins coming against Milwaukee and Philadelphia which we can barely even count as wins. One of those defeats was a 25-point thumping at Indiana and while Boston played well in the follow up meeting, that was at home. The Celtics are 2-18 against teams ranked in the top ten in the NBA power rankings. The Pacers falls into a solid contrarian situation as we play on teams that has failed to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15 games going up against an opponent after having covered five or six of their last seven games. This situation is 68-30 ATS (69.4 percent) since 1996. Additionally, Indiana is 20-9 ATS in its last 29 games after a loss by 10 points or more while the Celtics are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (552) Indiana Pacers
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03-10-14 | Washington Wizards v. Miami Heat -7 | Top | 90-99 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
Miami is coming off another loss on Sunday, its third straight, as it fell at Chicago in overtime. The Heat blew a 12-point lead in the fourth quarter against the Bulls as the offense managed only 19 points in that final period and then followed that up with just two points in overtime. Now Miami will be out to avoid its first four-game losing streak since March of 2011 so expect to see a full out effort tonight. Back in 2012, Miami lost three straight road games and then came back home to post a 22-point win over San Antonio. The Heat then lost three straight Boston in the playoffs but followed that up with a 19-point win. They avoided a three-game losing streak last season and this season, they have lost three straight once and followed that up with a 15-point win. Adding even more incentive is that Miami will be out for payback following a 17-point loss in Washington in January. The Wizards have won two straight games and eight of their last nine games so they clearly are playing exceptional right now but they are catching Miami at the worst time possible. Even though they have won five straight road games, only one of those came against a decent opponent which was in Toronto and overall, Washington is just 5-16 against teams ranked in the top ten in the NBA power rankings. This line came out late as Miami will be without Dwyane Wade tonight who is taking the night off to rest but the Heats have won three straight without him in the lineup and with LeBron James coming off his two worst back-to-back games of the season, we should see him take this one over himself. 10* (504) Miami Heat
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03-09-14 | Indiana Pacers -1.5 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 94-105 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
We won with Dallas and lost with Indiana on Friday so we are backing the Pacers once again as they look to snap their three-game losing streak. The Pacers have also dropped six straight against the number and I feel that is adding to the value coupled with its losing skid. The Pacers were favored by nine points in the first meeting at home and lost by eight points so it sets up a revenge situation as well even though they are not in need of any more motivation. Indiana has a game and a half lead on Miami for first place in the Eastern Conference but that is three games in the win column which makes a big difference as opposed to games in the loss column. Indiana is still a solid 12-3 following a loss this season despite the recent skid. Dallas is coming off a closer than expected win over Portland as it needed a late run to hold off the Blazers after squandering a 30-point lead and that type of victory is hard to recover from. The Mavericks have not had any success in this role as they are 0-5 straight up and against the number as home underdogs and overall they are 7-16 against the NBA top ten. Indiana is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games coming off a double-digit loss while the Mavericks are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win. 10* (815) Indiana Pacers
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03-08-14 | New York Knicks v. Cleveland Cavaliers -3 | Top | 107-97 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
The streaky Cavaliers lost again last night at Charlotte making it three straight losses, two of which have come on the road and the one at home coming against San Antonio. Cleveland is back home as it looks to get back to .500 on its home floor and it has been put in a good position to do so. How bad is the Eastern Conference? Despite being 15 games under .500, the Cavaliers are only three and a half games out of the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference currently held by Atlanta. So despite the poor record, motivation is still there and if there is more needed, Cleveland can look back to five weeks ago when it went to New York and was hammered by 31 points. The Knicks meanwhile has won two straight games and neither were close as they trounced Minnesota and Utah by double-digits. This came after a seven-game skid which should quell any talk about the Knicks finally turning the corner as this is a team that still has its share of problems. While it won against the Timberwolves as an underdog, New York has struggled in this range, going 3-14 ATS this season as underdogs of less than five points. New York is 0-3 this season and 1-2 ATS when playing with no rest on the road following a home game while on the other side, the Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS when playing with no rest at home following a road game. Cleveland meanwhile is 4-0 ATS in its last four games against teams with a winning percentage below .400 while the Knicks are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games against teams with a losing home record. 10* (504) Cleveland Cavaliers
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03-07-14 | Indiana Pacers +4.5 v. Houston Rockets | Top | 86-112 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
Indiana has lost consecutive games for just the second time this season and I expect the Pacers to put another quick end to that here. Going back to December, they lost to Detroit and Miami and then won their next game by 33 points which coincidentally, also came against Houston. After being one of the top covers teams in the NBA through half of January, the Pacers have struggled to cash tickets as they are just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games including a 2-8 ATS record on the road. There is a big difference though compared to tonight as Indiana was favored in all of those road games and was actually favored in all 21 of those games overall. Now we are catching a hungry team as an underdog where it is 5-2 ATS on the season. Houston meanwhile has won three straight games and going back, it is 16-4 over its last 20 games so it has been playing outstanding. A lot of the wins have been suspect though and going back, the Rockets are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win of more than 10 points. They are solid at home with a 24-7 record but they are an average 14-13-3 ATS as a home favorite. The Pacers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss of more than 10 points and fall into a great situation where we play on underdogs with a winning percentage of .750 or better after having won five or six of their last seven games, playing a team with a winning percentage between .600 and .750. This situation is 105-58 ATS (64.4 percent) since 1996. 10* (819) Indiana Pacers
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03-07-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Dallas Mavericks -3 | Top | 98-103 | Win | 100 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
Dallas lost at Denver in its last game on Wednesday which snapped the Nuggets six-game losing streak and handed the Mavericks their third straight loss. These games are becoming more and more critical for Dallas which is sitting in the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference but not by much as it is ahead of Memphis by just one game. This is the largest losing streak of the season for the Mavericks which is pretty impressive as they have been able to avoid the big skids and remain with a double-digit win margin. This is the first game of a tough three-game stretch and heading home after two straight road losses, the Mavericks have to take care of home court. Portland meanwhile has won six of its last seven games following a 24-point home win over Atlanta on Wednesday. That was the Blazers fourth straight home game and this is just their second road game since February 12th. The Blazers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a win of more than 10 points and going back are 8-19 in their last 27 road games following a double-digit win. Dallas meanwhile is 9-2 ATS when favored by fewer than four points this season and 18-9 straight up and ATS following a loss against the number. The Mavericks also fall into a great situation where we play on teams that are averaging 103 or more ppg, after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half. This situation is 140-76 ATS (64.8 percent) since 1996. Dallas is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after trailing at the half by 15 or more points. 10* (816) Dallas Mavericks
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03-06-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Los Angeles Lakers +10.5 | Top | 142-94 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
Motivation plays a big role in the NBA as in an 82-game season, it is impossible to be highly motivated in every one of those games while on the other side, teams get up for some games more than others and that is where we extract some great situational plays. The Lakers are getting a big number at home against their city rival and while it is also the Clippers home floor, the fan support makes a difference. We played against the Lakers last time out and they were handed a home loss against New Orleans which snapped a two-game winning streak. Part of the reason in going against them was going against that streak and part of the reason was a lookahead to this game. These teams last met in January and the Clippers rolled to a 36-point win which was the largest win by them in this series ever. Don't think the Lakers have forgotten that. While top to bottom, the Clippers are far and away better than the Lakers, this is where the motivation factor comes into play. The Clippers have won and covered five straight games and that is also playing into this very high number. The Lakers are 5-2 ATS as a home underdog of six points or more and we played on them in a similar role three weeks ago on a Thursday night when they were getting the same amount of points against Oklahoma City and covered easily. The Lakers are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing 120 points or more including going 8-1 ATS this season. We have a great contrarian situation on our side as we play against favorites of 10 or more points after three or more consecutive wins, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team. This situation is 123-76 ATS (61.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (506) Los Angeles Lakers
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03-06-14 | Miami Heat +2.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 87-111 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
This is the second meeting this season following last year's epic NBA Finals and this also marks the second opportunity for the Spurs to extract some revenge as they were unable to get it done in Miami as they lost by 12 points. Many will be on San Antonio because of the revenge angle but I am not one of them. The Spurs have not played much at home over the last month but they have won their last four games here and while the 21-8 home record looks solid, it is littered with cupcake wins as 13 of those have come against teams likely not making the playoffs this season and overall they have struggled against the top teams. San Antonio has gone 9-11 against teams ranked within the top ten in power rankings and it is 0-9 ATS this season playing against teams with a winning percentage of .700 or better. And we mentioned revenge but the Spurs are just 2-14 ATS this season when trying to revenge a loss. Miami meanwhile is coming off a loss at Houston on Tuesday and while it may have been looking ahead to this game, that loss is our gain here. The Heat never led in that game and that will only make them hungrier here. Miami has been the best team in the NBA following a loss over the last two seasons as it is 30-7 in its 37 games following a defeat. While the ATS record is not as good, it does not matter here since the Heat are getting points and over those 37 follow up games, Miami was an underdog twice and won both of those games outright. Additionally, the Spurs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a double-digit win and 0-5 ATS in their last five home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* (501) Miami Heat
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03-05-14 | Sacramento Kings -3.5 v. Milwaukee Bucks | Top | 116-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
Typically we shy away from road favorites in the NBA but that is not the case here as Sacramento has a great opportunity to open this roadtrip with a resounding victory. The Kings are coming off a win against New Orleans on Monday and while the road has been a problem all season, we should not see any issues here. Sacramento has had its fair share of tough games as it has played the third toughest schedule in the NBA and while this one could bring that ranking down some, the Kings will take it. Milwaukee is coming off a 26-point win over Utah on Monday which was its most lopsided win of the season. The problem has been backing it up as the Bucks have not won consecutive games this season, going 0-11 in their first 11 games following a win and going back, they are 0-16 in their last 16 games following a win while against the number, they are 3-13 ATS in those contests. Milwaukee has the worst home record in the NBA and the Bucks are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Sacramento falls into a terrific situation as we play on road teams with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 where the line is +3 to -3 after failing to cover four or five of their last six games playing against a team with a winning percentage of .250 or worse. This situation is 52-23 ATS (69.3 percent) since 1996. 10* (713) Sacramento Kings
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