Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-01-17 | Central Michigan v. Western Michigan UNDER 47 | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
This is a play on the CENTRAL MICHIGAN/WESTERN MICHIGAN UNDER for our CFB Wednesday Total Dominator. The MAC continues its weeknight run on Wednesday with rivals Central and Western squaring off with the loser out of the MAC West race. We are expecting a grind it out type of game which is something this series has not seen over the years. The Broncos will be without quarterback Jon Wassink who broke his collarbone last game and they will be starting Reece Goddard who has thrown three career passes. To say they will be about ball control is an understatement as we will see a heavy dose of the run, even more than usual which burns clock. Western has rushed for 2,018 yards as a team, led by Jarvion Franklin's 80.2 ypg and seven total touchdowns. The Chippewas are coming off a 56-9 victory at Ball St. during which everything seemed to fall their way as they put up 256 yards rushing, a season high, and the defense held the Cardinals to 208 total yards, the season low for a Chippewas opponent. That defense will have to step up again and because of the quarterback change, they will have a better idea of what is coming. Western Michigan is allowing 385.6 ypg on defense with a lot of those yards coming early in the season. The Broncos have allowed an average of 15.8 ppg over their last five games in regulation as we threw out the overtime points in that crazy Buffalo game and we can expect this defense to come up strong against an inconsistent Central Michigan offense. While the Chippewas put up 56 points last week, they averaged 15 ppg in their previous five games. Central Michigan has gone under in 11 of its last 12 games against winning teams while the under is 5-1 in the Broncos last six games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. 10* Under (305) Central Michigan Chippewas/(306) Western Michigan Broncos |
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09-14-17 | Texans v. Bengals OVER 37.5 | Top | 13-9 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
Being Week Two, we have our first bounce back situations in play this week but considering both Cincinnati and Houston are coming off embarrassing Week One efforts, the Thursday night game is not in play. The Bengals are in a great spot as hone teams coming off a shutout home loss have covered 70 percent of the time in the last 33 instances but there is no way we would recommend laying a number this big as the line has gone from 3.5 to -7 in some spots. We will be going a contrarian route instead. Scoring a combined seven points in their season openers, we are catching a total that is lower than anticipated and while the over is typically a public play, the under is the consensus here. The quarterbacks will be under the microscope tonight and rightfully so after awful efforts last Sunday. Andy Daulton has been shut out once in his career, back in 2014 against the Colts, and it was a disaster of a game for him with a 55.4 QB Rating. He bounced back with a solid game against the Ravens and the offense managed 27 points. Deshaun Watson took over for Tom Savage in the second half last week and he was average and he now gets the nod on a short week but we think he will be just fine as he showed flashes of what he can do during the preseason. These teams have played each of the last three regular seasons and all three games stayed under the total and by a lot for that matter but all of those closing totals were 41 or higher. This adds to the contrarian angle as the under will be the recommendation from historians but we go against that as well. The Bengals have gone over the total in 20 of their last 27 games after scoring fewer than 15 points in their previous game including a 10-4 over mark under Dalton. 10* Over (101) Houston Texans/(102) Cincinnati Bengals |
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02-05-17 | Patriots v. Falcons OVER 58 | Top | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 270 h 6 m | Show |
Over the last 12 editions of the Super Bowl, only one has surpassed the total that we are dealing with this year as Super Bowl XLVII between Baltimore and San Francisco saw 65 points scored. Of the first 50 Super Bowls, only eight have had 60 total points scored so history shows that we should be in for a lower scoring game than what the over/under is telling us. While history can tell us a lot, it cannot always predict the future and this number is big for a reason despite the Patriots brining in the No. 1 scoring defense in the NFL. As a comparison, the over/under for the NFC Championship Game between the Falcons and Packers closed at 59.5. both New England and Green Bay have very potent offenses so those totals were set based on the defenses and clearly the linesmakers do not trust the Patriots top ranked unit. New England played the easiest schedule in the NFL and faced very weak quarterbacks along the way. It shut down the Steelers and Ben Roethlisberger last week but the Pittsburgh offense was knocked off course with the LeVeon Bell injury. Prior to that, Russell Wilson put up 31 points against New England while Andy Dalton was the second best quarterback the Patriots saw in the 2016 regular season and they are the only team in the NFL yet to face a top-10 passer this season. Atlanta scored 540 points this season, tied for the seventh-most in NFL history and 71 points clear of the next-best team. No one has been able to stop the Falcons for the most part and with the Atlanta defense not very good to begin with, the Patriots will be able to move the ball as well. As long as we can avoid settling for redzone field goals, this could turn into a very high scoring Super Bowl. 10* Over (101) New England Patriots/(102) Atlanta Falcons |
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12-20-16 | Memphis v. Western Kentucky OVER 79.5 | Top | 31-51 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
The scoreboard will be working on overload tonight in Boca Raton as two of the top offense square off. This is the highest total of all bowl games and for good reason as Western Kentucky is ranked No. 2 in scoring offense and No. 7 in total offense while Memphis is ranked No. 17 and No. 32 in those categories respectively. The defenses do not come close to those rankings so stopping the opposing offenses will be a challenge. Typically, we would look at the contrarian play here but digging deeper into the numbers show that the first over of the bowl season will hit. Western Kentucky has played only four games against teams ranked inside the top 50 in total offense and it was lit up by allowing an average of 45 ppg. Memphis meanwhile has faced five teams ranked No 50 or better in total offense and it allowed and even worse 48.4 ppg. These defenses are clearly skewed by the soft schedules they have faced so we see no reason that the offenses will be moving up and down the field all night. This is the highest total that each team has seen all season but the Hilltoppers and Tigers are a combined 5-0 to the over when the total was 70 or higher. Going back, the over is 12-3-1 in the Hilltoppers last 16 games against teams with a winning record while the over is 4-0 in the Tigers last four games against teams with a winning record. 10* Over (215) Memphis Tigers/(216) Western Kentucky Hilltoppers |
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12-19-16 | Central Michigan v. Tulsa OVER 69.5 | Top | 10-55 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
Day one of bowl season had five games on Saturday with all five of those staying under the total, four of which stayed under by a touchdown or more. Now we get a matchup where we have strength on offense going up against the weakness on defense and this is the case on both sides which can translate to a lot of points. Tulsa brings in a very potent rushing attack as it averages 262.4 ypg on 5.1 ypc and it has outrushed all but three opponents this season. On the other side, Central Michigan has trouble stopping the run as it is allowing 161.3 ypg on 4.5 ypc so the Golden Hurricane should gash the Chippewas defense. The Central Michigan strength on offense is with its passing game behind quarterback Cooper Rush and while he tends to force throws at times, he has the ability to make big plays. Tulsa allows nearly 250 ypg through the air and has only seven interceptions so the Chippewas can stay in this game with their passing game should they trail by any significant amount. this Is the highest total that Central Michigan has seen but for good reason based on the matchup and for Tulsa, it has surpassed this number in seven of its last 10 games with two of those missing the over by just one point. 10* Over (213) Central Michigan Chippewas/(214) Tulsa Golden Hurricane |
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11-03-16 | Falcons v. Bucs UNDER 51 | Top | 43-28 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 17 m | Show |
Atlanta and Tampa Bay have played some high scoring games recently and because of that, we are getting a good total to work with this Thursday. The Falcons have gone over the total in their last three games as well as seven of their eight games on the season so their games have certainly been entertaining. Tampa Bay is not far behind as it has gone over in two straight games and is 4-3 to the over on the season. The Buccaneers do not possess the same type of offense that Atlanta does as they have scored seven points twice as well as 17 points in another game. The defense has struggled, as has the Falcons defense, which are definitely concerns but the second meeting in a season is usually as advantage for the defenses. In divisional games in general, the defenses have an edge as going back, we play the under where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 in divisional games. This situation is 80-46 (63.5 percent) to the under the last five seasons. Atlanta falls into a subset where the same situation applies and one of the teams has gone over the total by 35 or more points in their last five games. This situation is 33-10 (76.7 percent) to the under since 1983. 10* Under (307) Atlanta Falcons/(308) Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
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10-27-16 | Jaguars v. Titans UNDER 44 | Top | 22-36 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
We have seen the under come through the last two Thursday night games and we can expect to see another one tonight barring any fluky scoring. The Jaguars offense continues to struggle as they are averaging just 324 ypg and 19.5 ppg. There's talk that if Bortles can't turn things around, the coaching staff could bench him for backup Chad Henne. That would be an admission that Bortles isn't the long-term answer. The real problem is that the offensive line has been unable to open holes for the running game and will have problems against the Titans pass rush. Tackle Kelvin Beachum will likely play but is far from 100 percent. Tennessee is allowing just 338 ypg, good for No. 10 in the league. The Titans are putting up decent numbers on offense but are averaging just 20.9 ppg which is No. 21 in the NFL. Tennessee will have to play without guard Quinton Spain, who figures to be out for at least the next two games after being injured in the second quarter last Sunday. That could make it a bit easier for Jacksonville to neutralize DeMarco Murray, the NFL's third-leading rusher with 633 yards. The Jaguars defense has allowed more points than expected but a lot of that is blamed on the offense with turnover setting up a short field for opponents. Overall, Jacksonville is allowing just 325.2 ypg which is No. 9 in the league. Jacksonville went over in its last game while Tennessee has gone over the total in four straight games which sets up a great situation as we play the under involving home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points off two or more consecutive overs, in a game involving two teams averaging between 18 and 23 ppg. This situation is 61-28 (68.5 percent) to the under since 1983. 10* Under (101) Jacksonville Jaguars/Tennessee Titans |
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10-27-16 | Ohio v. Toledo OVER 58.5 | Top | 31-26 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
After a crazy three-overtime game against Texas St. to open the season where 110 points were scored, Ohio has seen its last seven games stay under the total. A lot of that has had to do with the opposition and the matchups involved but that changes tonight. The defense has allowed 21 points or less four times but one of those came against Gardner Webb of the FCS while the other three came against offenses that are ranked No. 127, No. 117 and No. 104 in total offense and No. 123, No. 114 and No. 111 in scoring offense. Toledo is a little better than those squads as the Rockets are No. 7 in the nation in total offense and no. 13 in scoring offense. Toledo tied a season low with 31 points scored against Central Michigan last week and while its own defense has been pretty solid, it too has faced some weak offenses along the way. Throw away the three points allowed against Maine of the FCS and the Rockets have given up an average of 25.7 ppg. Two of the best defensive efforts came against Arkansas St. and Fresno St. and they are ranked No. 1245 and No. 121 respectively in scoring offense. Going back, Toledo is 12-1 to the over after having won four of its last five games while the over is 5-1 in the Bobcats last six games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. These teams have not met since 2010 which is not a good thing for the coaching staff to try and prepare defenses which gives the offense on both sides a clear advantage. 10* Over (103) Ohio Bobcats/(104) Toledo Rockets |
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10-27-16 | Virginia Tech v. Pittsburgh UNDER 57.5 | Top | 39-36 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
While we are going contrarian in the first total, we are going contrarian in this total as well. Because of these runs, this is where the value comes into play as linesmakers have to set the numbers based on those runs as the public is all over big streaks. Pittsburgh opened the season with a low scoring game against Villanova of the FCS but since then, the Panthers have gone over the total in six straight games. The offense has scored at least 36 points in every one of those games but the Panthers have faced off against some pathetic defenses along the way. The best stop unit they have faced was against Georgia Tech which is ranked No. 27 in total defense. The other five teams are ranked No. 53, No. 104, No. 61, No. 113 and No. 108. Virginia Tech comes into this game ranked No. 11 in total defense and no. 16 in scoring defense so Pittsburgh is going to be tested for sure. Pittsburgh relies heavily on the ground game and Virginia Tech is about as good as anybody in the country in stopping the run as the Hokies allow 103.6 ypg and 2.9 ypc. The Virginia Tech offense has played above average this season but it is skewed a bit based on the competition and venue. The Hokies have played only two road games and managed to score just 17 points against an awful Syracuse defense and 34 points against an average North Carolina defense in hurricane conditions. The Hokies have gone under in six straight ACC road games while the Panthers are 6-2 to the under in their last eight games following a bye week. 10* Under (107) Virginia Tech Hokies/(108) Pittsburgh Panthers |
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10-20-16 | Bears v. Packers OVER 46 | Top | 10-26 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 39 m | Show |
Both Green Bay and Chicago have seen their offenses struggle this season as they are ranked No. 17 and No. 31 respectively in points per game. The defenses are also both ranked in the latter half of the league so we have a good opportunity for the offenses to bust out. The Packers scoring output has declined in each of its last three games but as those games progressed, the defenses got better each time. Chicago meanwhile has scored more than 17 points only once this season which is pretty shocking considering it is ranked No. 7 in yards per game but part of the problem is down and distance as the Bears are ranked No. 28 in third down conversions and No. 30 in fourth down conversions. That has not been the problem for Green Bay which is ranked No. 1 in third down conversions at 49.3 percent. They have only 102 first downs which is tied for No. 26 and because of that, the offense does not have the ball much. The 104.3 quarterback rating for Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers in 17 career games against the Bears is the highest of the quarterbacks who have attempted at least 175 passes against Chicago in their careers. Chicago falls into a great over situation as we play the over involving teams that are averaging between 14 to 18 ppg going up against teams averaging between (18 to 23 ppg, after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 137-84 (62 percent) to the over since 1983. 10* Over (301) Chicago Bears/(302) Green Bay Packers |
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10-15-16 | Southern Miss v. LSU OVER 57 | Top | 10-45 | Loss | -107 | 58 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the SOUTHERN MISS GOLDEN EAGLES/LSU TIGERS OVER for our Saturday Totals Dominator. This could be considered a contrarian totals play based on the fact that LSU has stayed under the total in each of its first five games this season and that is certainly part of it but additionally, the matchup calls for a quick paced game. The Golden Eagles are ranked No. 7 in the country in total offense with 531 ypg while averaging 318.7 passing ypg and 40.2 ppg. There were reports early in the week that Southern Mississippi senior quarterback Nick Mullens was uncertain about this game but he has been upgraded to probable so the offense should not miss a beat. The Tigers might have turned a corner in the first game under interim coach Ed Orgeron with 634 yards, a school record in SEC play, in a 42-7 win over Missouri. Both defenses are ranked pretty high as Southern Mississippi is No 16 while LSU is No. 21 but The Golden Eagles have played a very easy schedule while the Tigers have played no one with a pulse on offense. Southern Mississippi defensive coordinator Tony Pecoraro said the LSU offense may throw a few new wrinkles at them while offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson said he figures to see a base Tigers defense. LSU is 7-0 to the over in its last seven games after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game while the over is 5-2 in the Golden Eagles last seven non-conference games. 10* Over (151) Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles/(152) LSU Tigers |
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10-06-16 | Cardinals v. 49ers UNDER 43 | Top | 33-21 | Loss | -107 | 31 h 4 m | Show |
We were waiting on a status update of Carson Palmer before making a call on this game and as expected, he is more than likely now not going to play. That means Drew Stanton will be making his first start since 2014 and after a rough go of it last week in relief, we can expect to see a heavy dose of the running game from the Cardinals. They will not be taking many chances downfield unless they have to come from behind again which is unlikely in this matchup. The 49ers offense has been pretty offensive as they are ranked No. 29 in total offense and their scoring output has declines in each of their four games. Despite the three losses, the Cardinals defense has been potent as they are ranked No. 7 overall and it has been turnovers on the offensive end that have hurt them the most. Safety Tyrann Mathieu has played slot corner on just 11 percent of his snaps this season compared to 62 percent last season. He will be playing closer to the box where he can have more of a direct impact on plays. San Francisco cannot get the ball downfield so they will turn to Carlos Hyde who has been running the ball very well. San Francisco falls into a totals situation where we play the under after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, versus division opponents. This situation is 85-49 (63.4 percent) to the under the last five seasons. Arizona also falls into a totals situation where we play the under where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points versus division opponents, off a division game. This situation is 78-39 (66.7 percent) to the under the last five seasons. Additionally, San Francisco is 8-0 under its last eight home conference games and 7-0 under its last seven games at home against teams averaging 375 or more ypg. Meanwhile the under is 6-0 in the Cardinals last six games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* Under (303) Arizona Cardinals/(304) San Francisco 49ers |
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10-05-16 | Georgia Southern v. Arkansas State OVER 55 | Top | 26-27 | Loss | -107 | 32 h 38 m | Show |
Two of the Sun Belt Conference favorites square off on Wednesday in what looks to be a very high scoring game. Georgia Southern is off to a 2-0 start in the conference with wins over South Alabama and UL-Monroe and both of those were very low scoring contests that stayed under the total by 24.5 points and 13 points respectively. Those came against two of the lowest scoring offenses in the country and while Arkansas St. has struggled on offense, it has gotten progressively better. The Red Wolves are 0-4 including an embarrassing loss last time out against Central Arkansas. This is their conference opener and while the offense has the ability to put up a good number of points, their defense has been real troublesome as they are allowing 36 ppg, which is ranked No. 107 in the country. Arkansas St. has struggled against the run especially and that is not a good sign against a powerful Eagles rushing attack. This is the lowest total Georgia Southern has seen this season and both teams have seen three of their four games stay under the number which sets up good value. We play the over where the total is between 49.5 and 56 involving teams that winless on the season and coming off a home loss. This situation is 46-17 (73 percent) to the over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Arkansas St. is 8-0 to the over in its last eight games against teams average 4.75 or more ypc while under head coach Blake Anderson, the Red Wolves are 14-1 to the over against conference opponents. 10* Over (301) Georgia Southern Eagles/(302) Arkansas St. Red Wolves |
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10-02-16 | Titans v. Texans OVER 40.5 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 45 h 18 m | Show |
This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS/HOUSTON TEXANS OVER for our Sunday Totals Dominator. This is a contrarian totals play as we have seen Tennessee stay under the number in its last two games by a combined 37 points and in the season opener that went over, it surpassed the number by just one point. Those results give us value with this total as it is down by a touchdown from the last two games. Houston meanwhile has stayed under the number in all three of its games and none have really been close to going over. The Texans were shutout last week in New England 27-0 despite getting actually outgaining the Patriots by two yards. They were done in by a 3-0 turnover disadvantage as the offense was able to move the ball at a steady pace but failed to sustain their drives. The defense did get gashed for 185 yards rushing on 39 carries (4.7 ypc) and while the defense has played at a high level overall this season, the loss of J.J. Watt cannot be overstated. The Tennessee offense has not produced as it should be as it is averaging just 14 ppg which is dead last in the league but the titans are No. 19 in total offense so they are moving the ball and have a chance to break out here. Tennessee has a great contrarian situation on its side as we play the over involving road teams that are averaging 17 or fewer ppg, after scoring 17 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 23-4 (85.2 percent) to the over the last five seasons. Additionally, the over is 7-0 in the Texans last seven games in October while the over is 7-2-1 in the Titans last 10 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* Over (263) Tennessee Titans/(264) Houston Texans |
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09-19-16 | Eagles v. Bears OVER 42.5 | Top | 29-14 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
This line opened at -2.5, got pushed up to -3.5 midweek and has settled back down to -3 which is right where it should be in a game that can go either way. We are getting value with the total however after both teams went under the number is their season opening games. The glaring comparison is with Chicago in that this total is lower than last week against Houston, one of the top ranked defenses in the NFL. This is a matchup where both quarterbacks could have massive games. Carson Wentz threw for 278 yards and two touchdowns in his NFL debut, completing 22 of 37 passes in a turnover-free performance, posting a 101.0 rating. Jay Cutler meanwhile was 16-29 for just 216 yards and a touchdown and one pick but as mentioned, he was facing a very strong defense and it takes a step down tonight. As a team, the Eagles held Cleveland to under 300 total yards of offense last week as they dominated the time of possession with nearly 40 minutes on their side. But Cleveland is Cleveland and yesterday the Browns managed 387 yards but 85 of those came on one play. Philadelphia will be without top cornerback Leodis McKelvin. On the other side, the Bears were pretty average against the Texans as Brock Osweiler completed 63 percent of his passes while allowing Lamar Miller to rush for over 100 yards. One of their biggest failings against Houston was the Bears failed to make Osweiler uncomfortable in the pocket and the Texans offensive line is much worse than the line of the Eagles so they will have trouble again. 10* Over (289) Philadelphia Eagles/(290) Chicago Bears |
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09-09-16 | Louisville v. Syracuse OVER 69.5 | Top | 62-28 | Win | 100 | 33 h 38 m | Show |
This total looks to be on the high side considering the meeting last year had the closing over/under at 50.5 but it has jumped up for a reason. After a second straight losing season, head coach Scott Shafer was let go at Syracuse and the school brought in Dino Babers from Bowling Green which looks to be a great hire to make some changes for the good. First and foremost, he brings in a fast paced offense, something that Syracuse has not implemented in quite some time. It was on display last week against Colgate as the Orange racked up 554 total yards and they should have put up more than 33 points but struggled a bit on third down. Granted, it was only Colgate but it was a very positive sign compared to last season when they managed only 426 yards in their opener against Rhode Island, a team that went 1-11 at the FCS level. They will be facing a tougher defense here for sure but moving the ball will not be an issue, especially at home where the Louisville defense will not have the crowd behind them. The Cardinals decimated Charlotte last Thursday 70-14 as they racked up 663 total yards and while they will not be matching those numbers this week, the offense will not be slowed down much. The Syracuse defense is at a disadvantage from a talent perspective, which does not help its case and side of the ball is expected to struggle all season. Both offenses play at a high pace with mobile quarterbacks so we should see some offensive fireworks come Friday night. 10* Over (303) Louisville Cardinals/(304) Syracuse Orange |
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01-11-16 | Alabama v. Clemson UNDER 51 | Top | 45-40 | Loss | -102 | 148 h 24 m | Show |
The two semifinal playoff games went under the total which was due to the defenses not allowing hardly anything. While the offenses put up 37 and 38 points, those were against defenses that do not compare to what they will be facing here. Alabama comes in ranked 1st in scoring defense and 2nd in total defense while Clemson comes in ranked 16th in scoring defense and 6th in total defense and it needs to be noted that Oklahoma and Michigan St. did not rank inside the top 25 in either of those categories. I do expect Clemson to have more success on offense than Michigan St. did but the Tigers are not going to have a field day all night for sure. On the other side, Alabama will be facing a much quicker and more athletic defense and they will have their own troubles. Both teams fall into a great low scoring situation where we play the under for neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 in a game involving two teams outgaining opponents by 1.2 or more yppl in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. This situation is 32-8 (80 percent) to the under since 1992. Clemson is 12-3 to the under in its last 15 games after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game while going 10-3 to the under in its last 13 games against winning teams. Meanwhile, Alabama is 33-14 in its last 47 games against teams averaging 200 or more rushing ypg. The teams combined to go 12-6 to the under when the total was between 40 and 55 this season and we can expect that to continue here. 10* Under (151) Alabama Crimson Tide/(152) Clemson Tigers |
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01-10-16 | Seahawks v. Vikings OVER 40 | Top | 10-9 | Loss | -107 | 120 h 53 m | Show |
These teams met here just over a month ago and we are seeing a total that is filled with value as it is three points less now based on recent results. The Seahawks have gone under the total in four straight games as the defense was outstanding in three of those games while the offense didn't show up in the loss to the Rams. The Vikings meanwhile have been an under team all season, staying below the total in 11 of 16 games including the last one on Sunday against the Packers that decided the NFC North. While the Seahawks have been playing at a high level of late, they have been unusually inconsistent and while they held Minnesota to just seven points and 125 total yards in that first meeting, the Vikings will have a better gameplan this time around. Minnesota has averaged 31.8 ppg on offense since that Seattle game. Going back, the over is 9-2 in the Vikings last 11 home games against teams with a winning road record while going 7-0 to the over in their last seven games against teams averaging 4.5 ypc or more. Meanwhile, the over is 5-1 in the Seahawks last six games against teams with a winning record while the over is 16-6 in their last 22 games coming off a win over a divisional rival as an underdog .This total has already come down two points from its opener which signals a defensive battle but I expect the opposite on Sunday. 10* Over (103) Seattle Seahawks/(104) Minnesota Vikings |
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01-01-16 | Iowa v. Stanford UNDER 53.5 | Top | 16-45 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 10 m | Show |
This game has the look and the feel of an ugly low scoring game which some people prefer. It looks pretty attractive to me considering this total is relatively high for this matchup and has actually gone up slightly since opening. The offenses have put up a ton of points this season on both sides but those came against some very poor defenses and mismatches. Iowa comes in with the 21st ranked total defense while Stanford comes in with the 46th ranked total defense. The Hawkeyes play a base defense and play it very well as they are in the top 25 nationally in rush defense, total defense and scoring defense. Going back, the Stanford offense struggles the majority of the time against Big Ten defenses. The Stanford defense is not as good but the Hawkeyes offense is not as good as the numbers it has put up as it has faced five defenses ranked 100th or worse. I don't see them having much success here. Both teams fall into two great under situations. First, we play the under involving two teams from major conferences on a neutral field where the total is between 49.5 and 56 after having won 3 out of their last 4 games. This situation is 23-4 (85.2 percent) to the under the last 10 seasons. Second, we play the under where the total is between 49.5 and 56 in a game involving two teams with winning percentages of .800 or better in major bowl games played in January. This situation is 52-20 (72.2 percent) to the under since 1992. 10* Under (269) Iowa Hawkeyes/(270) Stanford Cardinal |
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01-01-16 | Notre Dame v. Ohio State OVER 56.5 | Top | 28-44 | Win | 100 | 47 h 6 m | Show |
Entering the Fiesta Bowl, Ohio St. comes in ranked 28th in scoring offense with 35.0 ppg while Notre Dame comes in 31st in scoring offense with 34.8 ppg. The defenses have been great on both sides, more so for the Buckeyes but this game has the feel that the offenses will be able to run the table. One big reason for this is the coaching as we have two great offensive minds and with so much time to prepare, it only adds to it. Starting with Notre Dame, its offensive balance (215.6 ypg rushing/256.3 ypg passing) has been an asset all season long and it can keep the Buckeyes defense off balance. One huge edge for the Fighting Irish offense is that Ohio St. is missing two senior starting defensive tackles as Tommy Schutt is out with an injury while Adolphus Washington has been suspended. Notre Dame running back could be back after missing the last game against Stanford which would be a big boost. On the other side, Ohio St. has been relying on the run but don't surprised to see Urban Meyer chance that here as air it our more as the injuries to the Notre Dame secondary makes it a huge weakness. While the Buckeyes have been a big under team this season, most of those took place at home and going back, they 8-1 to the over in their last nine games away from home against teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg while going 11-2 to the over in their last 13 games with a total between 56.5 and 63. Meanwhile Notre Dame is 6-0 to the over in its last six games following an ATS loss. 10* Over (267) Notre Dame Fighting Irish/(268) Ohio St. Buckeyes |
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12-31-15 | Houston v. Florida State UNDER 55.5 | Top | 38-24 | Loss | -104 | 47 h 39 m | Show |
Prior to the two playoff games New Year's Eve, we have a solid matchup in the afternoon featuring Houston against Florida St. The Cougars were looking to crash the party but a loss at Connecticut knocked them out of any chance to think about a playoff berth. Still, they got a solid bowl against a solid opponent and while their offense has been potent, they will have a tough time here. Florida St. comes in ranked 16th in the nation in total defense and 5th in scoring defense and Houston has struggled against good defenses. It was held to 17 points against Connecticut and 24 points against Temple and those defenses are ranked 16th and 17th in scoring defense respectively. The Seminoles aren't going to scare anyone with their offense as taking out games against Texas St. and Chattanooga where they scored 59 and 52 points, their scoring averages drops from 32.3 ppg to 27.7 ppg which would put it 74th in the country. Houston typically is known for playing poor defense but the Cougars are 53rd overall and a very solid 20th in scoring defense, allowing just 20.5 ppg. This was a good one to wait out as the total has risen a couple points from opening. Both teams fall into a great low scoring bowl situation as we play the under in bowl games between teams from major conferences with winning percentages of .800 or better where the total is between 49.5 and 56. This situation is 46-16 (74.2 percent) to the under since 1992. 10* Under (257) Houston Cougars/(258) Florida St. Seminoles |
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12-30-15 | Louisville v. Texas A&M UNDER 47.5 | Top | 27-21 | Loss | -105 | 53 h 28 m | Show |
This spread has shifted over a touchdown as Louisville has gone from a three-point underdog to a 4.5-point favorite which makes the side play unplayable at this point. The reason for the swing is because of Aggies quarterbacks Kyle Allen and Kyler Murray deciding to transfer out with Jake Hubenak taking over as the starter. While this hurts them to win and/or cover, it helps the under which has come down only three points. It is going to be difficult for the offense to get anything going as in his first season since transferring from Blinn College, Hubenak made four appearances and went 12 of 27 for 92 yards with one touchdown. Louisville played solid on defense this season and should prosper here. On the other side, the Aggies boasted a very strong defense as they finished 28th in points allowed and were exceptionally good against the pass, allowing just 161.2 ypg, good for 4th in the nation. They match up well here against a Louisville offense that did nothing from the start. The Cardinals problems stem from youth as the offense has used two true freshman tackles, a true freshman quarterback, three true freshman wide receivers, a redshirt freshman tight end and a redshirt freshman guard. It has been reported that during bowl practices, Louisville basically reinstalled its offense which is not a good sign for success. Louisville is 7-0 to the under in its last seven games away from home after outgaining opponent by 175 or more total yards in its previous game while the under is 6-2 in the Aggies last eight games following a straight up loss. 10* Under (253) Louisville Cardinals/(254) Texas A&M Aggies |
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12-30-15 | NC State v. Mississippi State OVER 60 | Top | 28-51 | Win | 100 | 50 h 54 m | Show |
This bowl, going back to the days of the Continental Tire Bowl and the Meineke Car Care Bowl, has produced some high scoring games and I project another one this season in the fifth edition of the Belk Bowl. It has been a mixed bag of over/unders for both NC State and Mississippi St. but the matchup between the two should produce some big offensive numbers. We have two exceptional quarterbacks taking the field today as the Wolfpack's Jacoby Brissett threw for 2,448 yards with 19 touchdowns and just four interceptions while the Bulldogs Dak Prescott threw for 3,413 yards with 25 touchdowns and also just four interceptions. Overall, NC State has scored 34 or more points in eight of its 12 games and while the defense has put up some solid numbers, a lot of that is who it played against. When facing good offenses, the defense yielded 45, 34 and 56 points and the Bulldogs can take advantage as they fall into that category. Their defense is not nearly as good however, especially of late as Mississippi St. gave up 31, 50 and 38 points over its last three games. Prior to that, the Bulldogs played very poor offenses. We should see some big plays from both sides and because of that, this relatively smaller than expected total won't be an issue. The over is 11-3-1 in the Wolfpack's last 15 games following an ATS loss while the over is 4-0 in the Bulldogs last four games following a straight up loss. 10* Over (251) NC State Wolfpack/(252) Mississippi St. Bulldogs |
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12-29-15 | Air Force v. California OVER 67 | Top | 36-55 | Win | 100 | 27 h 37 m | Show |
There have been a large number of shootouts in the early bowl games and we should see another starting out on Tuesday. We have contrasting styles on offense going against each other here in the Armed Forces Bowl and both units have excellent matchups against the opposing defenses. California brings in the 9th ranked offense in the country including ranking fourth in passing offense and while the Air Force defense has been solid overall, the Falcons have struggled against the pass, allowing 8.4 ypa away from home and they haven't been overly tested in those games. The Golden Bears are ranked 110th in total yards including 104th in rushing defense so Air Force will have no issues moving the ball and that sets up the possibility of big plays through the air. While they do not throw it much, the Falcons are ranked 2nd in the nation in yards per completion at 21.23. California has allowed a gaudy 261 ypg on 5.7 ypc on the ground away from home this season so we should see some big plays. Air Force has been a big over team this season, surpassing the total in eight of 12 games. California has been a surprising under team this season based on the stats but the totals have been inflated in a lot of cases. The Golden Bears are 22-7-1 to the over in their last 30 non-conference games while the Falcons are 20-7 to the over in their last 27 games after covering the spread in three of their last four games. 10* Over (241) Air Force Falcons/(242) California Golden Bears |
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12-28-15 | Pittsburgh v. Navy UNDER 53.5 | Top | 28-44 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 53 m | Show |
12 of the first 18 bowl games have gone over the total but we should start Monday with a low scoring game in the Military Bowl from Annapolis. We have a few factors on our side as both are slower paced teams and both prefer to run the ball more than they pass it. That is a pretty obvious statement for Navy but Pittsburgh is more of a running team as they rush it close to 60 percent of the time. It is important to keep the running game going which will give the Panthers an edge, or remaining close to even in time of possession so they do not wear down. Giving up only about 21.3 ppg, the Midshipmen rank 26th in the nation in scoring defense and Pittsburgh is not far back, allowing 24.6 ppg. Both teams fall into the same situation where we play the under in the second half of the season involving teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 in a game involving two teams that are +/- 50 ypg in differential, in non-conference games. This situation is 44-14 (75.9 percent) to the under the last 10 seasons. The teams are a combined 8-4 to the under when the total is between 48.5 and 55 while Navy is 25-8 to the under in its last 33 games against averaging 2 or more timer possession minutes while Pittsburgh is 27-11 to the under in its last 38 games away from home following a straight up loss. 10* Under (237) Pittsburgh Panthers/(238) Navy Midshipmen |
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12-26-15 | Connecticut v. Marshall UNDER 44.5 | Top | 10-16 | Win | 100 | 49 h 21 m | Show |
Seven of the first 10 bowl games going into Thursday have gone over the total but the first game on Saturday has the potential to be a snoozer. When you think Marshall, you typically think offense but that wasn't the case this season as the Thundering Herd averaged 401.3 ypg which was 64th in the nation and while they ranked 43rd in scoring offense, they will be tested here. Connecticut allowed just 352.3 ypg which was 34th in the nation and it allowed only 19.8 ppg, good for 16th lowest. The Huskies held some prolific scoring teams to season lows and we should see another strong effort here. On the other side, the Huskies averaged just 318.4 ypg and 17.8 ppg, 119th and 118th respectively in the country. They scored more than 20 points only three times and will face a Marshall defense that allowed just 372.3 ypg and 18.4 ppg, 47th and 13th respectively. That unit is good enough to keep Connecticut in check for sure. We are seeing a low total here but it is for good reason and should prove to not be low enough. Here, we play the under in the second half of the season involving teams (Connecticut) where the total is between 42.5 and 49 that are averaging between 4.8 and 5.6 yppl going up against teams allowing between 4.2 and 4.8 yppl, after being outgained by 125 or more total yards last game. This situation is 53-22 (70.7 percent) to the under since 1992. The under is 10-1 in the Huskies last 11 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points while the Under is 6-0 in Thundering Herd last 6 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points while the under is 6-0 in the Thundering Herd's last six games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points. 10* Under (225) Connecticut Huskies/(226) Marshall Thundering Herd |
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12-24-15 | Middle Tennessee State v. Western Michigan OVER 64.5 | Top | 31-45 | Win | 100 | 4 h 39 m | Show |
This has the potential to be one of the higher scoring games even though we have already seen our share of offensively dominated matchups. Middle Tennessee averages 458.7 ypg and 34.3 ppg which are 30th and 34th in the nation respectively and it is coming off a pair of high output games to close the season. The defense allowed just seven points in those games but they were against non-bowl teams and while the stop unit has allowed a respectable 25.1 ppg, the Blue Raiders have allowed 41 ppg against bowl teams. Western Michigan can certainly take advantage as it averages 480.9 ypg and 35.3 ppg, which are 22nd and 27th in the country respectively. They were held in check only a few times this season but those came against some elite defenses. The Broncos defense played poor down the stretch and overall they ranked 78th in total defense and 77th in scoring defense. The game features some of the top receivers in the country you have never heard of. Western Michigan's Corey Davis and Daniel Braverman have over 1,200 yards receiving each this season while Middle Tennessee's Richie James and Ed Batties have combined to catch 177 passes for 2,180 yards and 19 touchdowns this year. Middle Tennessee falls into a situation favoring a high scoring game as we play the over in the second half of the season involving teams that average 440 ypg, after outgaining their opponent by 175 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 67-33 (67 percent) to the over since 1992. 10* Over (221) Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders/(222) Western Michigan Broncos |
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12-22-15 | Akron v. Utah State UNDER 47.5 | Top | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 24 h 31 m | Show |
This total has come down slightly but we should be in for a pretty vanilla game from each offense which squares off against pretty solid defenses. Neither team has played a ton of potent offenses but both of these units fall into the same category of what they both faced this season. Akron is ranked 97th in total offense while Utah St. comes in only slightly better at 91st and as far as points, both are in the lower half as well. On the other side, the defenses are clearly the better units as the Zips are ranked 17th in total defense while the Aggies are 22nd which is the main reason this total is as low as it is. Akron linebacker Jatavis Brown led the MAC in sacks with 10.5 and tackles for loss with 17.5, while leading the team in tackles at 108. For Utah St., linebackers Kyler Fackrell and Nick Vigil both made first-team all-MWC, and Vigil leads the Aggies with 140 tackles and 12.5 tackles for loss. Utah St. quarterback Chuckie Keeton is back but he is far from the same start quality quarterback from a couple years ago. He came back for the final two games and once again looked really shaky down the stretch as was just 34-of-72 for 352 yards with only one touchdown and one interception. Akron has gone under in its last six non-conference games away from home while Utah St. has gone under in six of its last seven December games. 10* Under (213) Akron Zips/(214) Utah St. Aggies |
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12-21-15 | Western Kentucky v. South Florida OVER 65.5 | Top | 45-35 | Win | 100 | 100 h 2 m | Show |
This has the potential to be a shootout as these offenses are two that are capable of big plays. Combined, they average 77 ppg which shows the linesmakers are keen on these defenses and there is no reason to be. The offenses are both ranked in the top 40 in offensive efficiency and the end of the season saw even greater numbers. Western Kentucky has averaged 52.3 ppg over its last three games while South Florida has averaged 51 ppg over the same stretch with two of the three games for each team coming against other bowl teams. On the other side, the Hilltoppers are ranked 60th in total defense while the Bulls are 37th in total defense so while both are above average, neither are dominant enough to hold down the opposing offenses. This total is the second highest of the season for the Bulls but the last one easily went over and as for Western Kentucky, this is on the low side and for the season, the Hilltoppers have gone over the total in nine of 12 games when the over/under is 62 or higher. The good thing is that this is an early bowl game so there is not a ton of time off which can often hurt an offense. Western Kentucky is 13-4 to the over after scoring 31 or more points in two straight games while South Florida is 5-2 to the over after scoring 40 or more points. 10* Over (211) Western Kentucky Hilltoppers/(212) South Florida Bulls |
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12-17-15 | Bucs v. Rams OVER 41 | Top | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 57 h 19 m | Show |
We have seen some pretty dull Thursday night games the last couple months as of the last eight games, seven have stayed below the total. The only one that went over the number was the Green Bay/Detroit game because of that Hail Mary which we were certainly fortunate to cash. While Tampa Bay and St. Louis do not scream offense when you think about them, the matchup on both sides should provide the offenses a boost. A key is actually the running game on each side as Todd Gurley is coming off a monster game and Doug Martin is having a great bounce back season. The Rams average 4.9 ypc while the Buccaneers average 4.8 ypg and those rushing attacks will open up the passing game. Last week, the Saints defense held the Buccaneers to 17 points and 291 yards, both the lowest against the Saints all season so that is a good indicator of a bounceback. In what may seen even more of getting another low scoring game here is the fact that Tampa Bay has gone under the total in three straight games while St. Louis has gone under the total in four straight games. Those are keeping the number down however. We have a great situation for the over involving teams that are averaging between 14 and 18 ppg going up against teams averaging between 18 and 23 ppg, after allowing three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 135-83 (61.9 percent) since 1983. 10* Over (301) Tampa Bay Buccaneers/(302) St. Louis Rams |
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12-04-15 | Northern Illinois v. Bowling Green UNDER 70 | Top | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
Northern Illinois and Bowling Green square off for the third straight season in Detroit for the MAC Championship. Things are different this time around as the Huskies were favored in both of the previous two meetings but now it is the Falcons that come in as a huge chalk tonight with the main reason being the Northern Illinois quarterback situation. Drew Hare is done for the season and Ryan Graham, who led them to that improbable win over Toledo and then led them to two more win, was hurt last week. Freshman Tommy Fielder is expected to start tonight and there is no doubt that a run heavy gameplan has been put into place. Bowling Green has a very potent offense behind quarterback Matt Johnson but the Huskies have a sneaky good defense that has done enough to have their last two games go under the number while allowing more than 30 points only once this season. Northern Illinois is 12-2 to the under as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points while Bowling Green is 6-0 to the under in its last six games against teams averaging 31 or more ppg and 14-4 to the under after covering as a double-digit favorite. Both teams fall into a great under situation as we play the under involving teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 and having two teams averaging between 4.3 and 4.8 ypc. This situation is 46-18 (71.9 percent) to the under the last five seasons. 10* Under (303) Northern Illinois Huskies/(304)Bowling Green Falcons |
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12-03-15 | Packers v. Lions OVER 46.5 | Top | 27-23 | Win | 102 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
It has been a pretty tough month for the Packers which went from an undefeated record at 6-0 and a lead in the NFC North to a 7-4 record and now fighting for a Wild Card spot in the conference. The division is still within grasp but laying points on the road with the way it is playing is tough to do but we do expect the offense to do much better than what took place in the first meeting three weeks ago. Green Bay managed just 16 points but did put up 372 yards in the defeat which was similar to last week against the Bears where they put up 365 yards and scored only 13 points. While the Lions defense has been great the last three weeks, this is still a very inconsistent unit. On the other side, under new offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter, the Lions are closer to a balanced offense. They ran the ball 29.4 percent of the time in the first seven games but with a stronger commitment to the ground game, the Lions are still playing the preferred up-tempo style that suits quarterback Matt Stafford best. They broke out for 45 points last Thursday as Stafford was as sharp as he has been all season, and he will get plenty of single-high safety looks Thursday. Green Bay falls into a solid totals situation as we play the over involving road teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 off a loss by 7 points or less to a division rival. This situation is 29-8 (78.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Meanwhile, Detroit is 10-2 to the over in its last 12 games after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. 10* Over (301) Green Bay Packers/(302) Detroit Lions |
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11-30-15 | Ravens v. Browns OVER 41 | Top | 33-27 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
We have seen some duds on Monday night of late with little offensive action but that should change tonight as we have two teams out of playoff contention facing off. Baltimore is coming off a 2-11 homestand but suffered another pair of tough injuries as quarterback Joe Flacco and running back Justin Forsett were both lost for the season and while that could hurt the offense, the opposing defense won't show much resistance. Cleveland meanwhile has lost five straight games and while the offense did little to help, getting Josh McCown back behind center will help immensely as Johnny Manziel was garbage. Now back to the defenses as these are two of the worst scoring defenses in the NFL as Baltimore is allowing 24.9 ppg and Cleveland is allowing 27.7 ppg, 23rd and 30th respectively in the NFL. Cleveland falls into a very high scoring situation as we play the over involving home teams in the second half of the season that are allowing 370 ypg going up against teams allowing between 335 and 370 ypg, after allowing 450 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 23-5 (82.1 percent) to the over since 1983. Additionally, the over is 4-0 in the Browns four home games this season while the over is 5-0 in the Ravens last five games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. 10* Over (275) Baltimore Ravens/(276) Cleveland Browns |
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11-21-15 | Georgia Southern v. Georgia OVER 50.5 | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -106 | 51 h 2 m | Show |
11-19-15 | Titans v. Jaguars OVER 42.5 | Top | 13-19 | Loss | -106 | 32 h 16 m | Show |
The under is 4-0-1 the last five Thursday night NFL games and while past outcomes do not predict future results, I think we are due for a shootout here. Neither Tennessee nor Jacksonville are known for their potent offenses but both are capable especially going up against these opposing defenses. Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota has not put up eye-popping numbers but he has a quarterback rating of 98.3 which is good for ninth best in the NFL and he is clearly getting more comfortable. Jacksonville is 26th in the league in opposing quarterback rating at 99.7 and the Jaguars have given up their fair share of points as they have allowed fewer than 20 points only once this season and have given up an average of 28.3 ppg. On the other side, Blake Bortles has not been nearly as efficient but he too has improved as the season has gone on. While the Titans defense is solid in yards allowed, they are allowing a passer rating of 95.1 to the opposition, which is 22nd in the NFL. Both possess pretty poor rushing offenses so we should see a lot of passing Thursday night. Overall, the teams are a combined 11-7 to the over and we are getting a very reasonable number here. The over is 13-6 in the Titans last 19 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game while the over is 6-2 in the Jaguars last eight home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* Over (309) Tennessee Titans/(310) Jacksonville Jaguars |
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11-15-15 | Bears v. Rams OVER 42.5 | Top | 37-13 | Win | 100 | 68 h 2 m | Show |
We lost with the Bears/Chargers over on Monday night but will come back with it here as the Bears head to St. Louis feeling pretty good about themselves. There was plenty of offense last week as Chicago gained 446 yards but unfortunately managed just 22 points. While they are facing a tougher defense this week, we are getting a much better number to work with which is partly due to the Bears going 5-1 to the under over their last six games. Speaking of unders, St. Louis has gone under the total in each of its last four games and six of its last seven so that is also playing into this total. Considering the last two games have come against two of the three worst offenses in the NFL and the total is just a couple points higher here, it shows the value involved. The Rams have allowed a total of 24 points in their last three home games but two of those came against offenses ranked 27th and 32nd while the other came against the Steelers when Ben Roethlisberger was knocked out. Chicago will be able to move the ball. On the other side, the Bears defense is 27th in points allowed and St. Louis has averaged a solid 22.8 ppg at home this season. Chicago is 9-1 to the over in it last 10 road games after one or more consecutive wins with the average points being 62.1 ppg while Str. Louis is 6-0 to the over in its last six after a loss by six or less points with the average point total being 53.5 ppg. 10* Over (257) Chicago Bears/(258) St. Louis Rams |
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11-14-15 | Oregon State v. California OVER 59.5 | Top | 24-54 | Win | 100 | 58 h 21 m | Show |
We lost with the over in the California/Oregon game last week by three points as 72 points were scored in the game where the posted total closed at 75. We will come back with the over this week as the Golden Bears are on a 6-0 under streak but two things are in our favor here. A lot of those unders were close to going over and this is the lowest posted total over this stretch and at this number, half of those would have gone over. The offense is ranked 23rd in the nation and needs to get rolling again after a strong start but having a tough time scoring points the last few weeks. Of course, three of those games were on the road and the lone home game was against USC. We lost with Oregon St. last week as tit was dismantled at home against UCLA, its sixth straight loss. Backing them against to cover is not happening this week as the 92nd ranked defense faces another massive test but what makes the Beavers a good over bet here is that the offense will be facing the 110th ranked defense in the country. This after facing two tough defenses in the first two games without starting quarterback Seth Collins. While the Golden Bears are on an under run, the Beavers have gone under in three straight games but the over is 4-0 in the Beavers last four games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game. 10* Over (195) Oregon St. Beavers/(196) California Golden Bears |
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11-14-15 | San Jose State v. Nevada OVER 52 | Top | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 52 h 53 m | Show |
San Jose St. hits the road following three straight home games and that is a big factor here in playing the over involving the Spartans. All three of those games went under the total as the defense was the difference and has been all season based on the venue. The Spartans are allowing 20.8 ppg in five home games but that average jumps to 33.5 ppg in four road games. The offense is ranked 73rd in the nation which is a little below average but they take on a very average Nevada defense that has overachieved the last six games. We say that because the teams they have faced over this stretch are ranked 121st, 122nd, 100th, 93rd, 64th and 81st so the numbers are definitely skewed. This of course has helped with all six of those games going below the total and this is despite the fact the Wolf Pack have scored 30 points or more in three of those six games. Because of that stretch, Nevada is seeing its lowest posted total of the season and while not by much, every little bit counts when it comes to these mid-range totals. This has historically been a low scoring series but again, this is the lowest number between these two teams since 2008. Going back, the over is 8-3 in the Spartans last 11 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. 10* Over (193) San Jose St. Spartans/(194) Nevada Wolf Pack |
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11-14-15 | Southern Miss v. Rice OVER 61 | Top | 65-10 | Win | 100 | 51 h 23 m | Show |
It has been quite a turnaround for Southern Mississippi as after winning four games combined the last three seasons, the Golden Eagles because bowl eligible two weeks ago with a win over UTEP. They have been doing it with defense by allowing just 33 points over the last three games combined but those came against teams ranked 95th or worst in total offense. As far as the offense goes, Southern Mississippi is ranked 13th in the country, averaging 507.7 ypg which is close to 150 ypg more than last season. They have been held to fewer than 28 points only twice all season and that offense should flourish once again here as Rice comes in with the 102nd ranked defense and has allowed an average of 38.5 ppg against FBS teams, taking out an 16-point effort against Wagner. The Owls are ranked a respectable 59th in total offense and the Owls have gone over the total in 17 of their last 23 games after consecutive ATS losses while Southern Mississippi falls into a great over situation. Here, we play the over where the total is between 56.5 and 63 involving teams after gaining 450 or more total yards in three consecutive games. This situation is 24-5 (82.8 percent) the last 10 seasons. Look for this one to fly over the number as the Golden Eagles snap their six-game under run. 10* Over (175) Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles/(176) Rice Owls |
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11-12-15 | Bills v. Jets UNDER 43 | Top | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 53 h 46 m | Show |
Rex Ryan returns to New York to face his former team for the first time and it should be a circus. While both offenses have been pretty steady of late, the defenses have been a real disappointment. The Jets allowed more than 20 points just once in their first five games but have allowed 29 ppg over their last three games. On the other side, Buffalo gave up 14 or fewer points in three of its first five games, it has allowed 28.3 ppg over its last three games. Both defenses are better than these recent forms and I expect both to pick it up on Thursday night. Because of the recent defensive struggles, the Bills have gone over the total in three straight games while the Jets have gone over the total in four straight games so we get the value that comes with that. Both teams fall into great low scoring situations. For Buffalo, we play the under involving road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points that are coming off a home win against a division rival. This situation is 52-21 (71.2 percent) to the under the last five seasons. For the Jets, we play the under involving teams after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, versus division opponents. This situation is 62-26 (70.5 percent) to the under the last five seasons. Additionally, the under is 11-5 in the Bills last 16 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game while the under is 16-4 in the Jets last 20 games after allowing seven or more yppl in their previous game. 10* Under (109) Buffalo Bills/(110) New York Jets |
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11-09-15 | Bears v. Chargers OVER 49 | Top | 22-19 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
A great matchup on paper a few weeks ago has turned into which team can finally win their third game of the season. The point spread seems to be right on with the Chargers about two points better and then another two points added for home field which is one of the weakest in the league. With not a lot of pressure on either side, we should see both offenses slinging it around and having success in doing so. The Bears will be without Matt Forte so rookie running back Jeremy Langford will make his first career start and he should find holes against a Chargers defense that's allowing 124.6 ypg on the ground, the sixth-worst mark in the NFL. Getting him going will help out Jay Cutler who has been solid since returning from a hamstring injury. On the other side, Philip Rivers is having a great season and that should continue here despite the loss of Keenan Allen as the Bears secondary is a mess. Rivers has thrown for over 300 yards in six of his eight games this season and while the Bears are fourth in the NFL in pass defense, but have surrendered 16 passing touchdowns which is tied for fourth-most in the league. The over is 8-2 in the Bears last 10 road games against teams with a losing home record while the over is 4-0 in the Chargers last four games against teams with a losing record. Both teams fall into the same situation as we play the over involving teams with a poor rushing defense, allowing 4.5 or more rushing ypc, after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in four straight games. This situation is 55-26 (67.9 percent) to the over since 1983. 10* Over (473) Chicago Bears/(474) San Diego Chargers |
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11-08-15 | Raiders v. Steelers OVER 47.5 | Top | 35-38 | Win | 100 | 49 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on the RAIDERS/STEELERS OVER for our Total of the Week. The Steelers are coming off a brutal loss last week against the Bengals as two late interceptions led to Cincinnati pulling away at the end. Pittsburgh fell to 4-4 and is now four games behind the Bengals in the AFC North. The offense that was expected to be one of the most explosive in the NFL has been anything but that, averaging just 21 ppg. Obviously, the absence of Ben Roethlisberger had a lot to do with that but now that he is back, the offense should start clicking again. The loss of Le'Veon Bell is a huge one but we should see more of the passing game and with the Steelers staying below the total for the last six games, we are playing with a lot of value here. The Raiders come in with a 4-3 record after two straight wins as the offense has put up 37 and 34 points and that was the fourth time this season Oakland has scored 27 or more points. They have gone over in five of seven games which is offsetting some of the value but with the playmakers on the Raiders offense starting to really click, this has the potential to be the highest scoring game of the weekend. Going back to the Bell absence, when DeAngelo Williams played in the two games during his suspension, the Steelers scored 64 points so the potential is definitely still there. Pittsburgh is 17-5 to the over in its last 22 games after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games while Oakland is 13-4 to the over in its last 17 games in the second half of the season. 10* Over (451) Oakland Raiders/(452) Pittsburgh Steelers |
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11-07-15 | California v. Oregon OVER 75.5 | Top | 28-44 | Loss | -106 | 55 h 40 m | Show |
While we are playing the over in the game with the lowest posted total of the day, we are also playing the over in the game with the third highest total of the day. We played the over in the California/USC game last week and the Golden Bears could not get an offensive rhythm going as the Trojans controlled the time of possession. That won't be the case this week as Oregon does not have close to the same defense as USC. The Ducks are ranked 116th in the nation in total defense and they allow 38.4 ppg which is 117th in the country. California's offense should wake up here after scoring 24 points or less the last three games, a number they surpassed in all five of their first games. While Oregon is struggling with a 5-3 record, the offense is still dynamic and is ranked 12th in total offense and 10th in scoring offense. Here, we play the over involving teams where the total is 70 points or higher coming off a win as an underdog from Week Ten on. The over is 23-4 (85.2 percent) over the last ten seasons. Additionally, Oregon is 7-0 to the over in its last seven home games following a Thursday game. 10* Over (401) California Golden Bears/(402) Oregon Ducks |
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11-07-15 | Arkansas v. Ole Miss OVER 54 | Top | 53-52 | Win | 100 | 48 h 40 m | Show |
The third over we are going with is a middle of the road number that is going against a recent team trend. After opening the season with three straight overs, Mississippi has gone under the total in its last six games. The defense has led the way but now the defense faces the best offense it has seen since facing Memphis where the Rebels allowed 37 points. Arkansas has gotten its offense in gear the last two games and now comes in ranked 33rd in the country in total offense and 50th in scoring offense. The Razorbacks defense has been gashed for 30.7 ppg over the last six games and while the Mississippi point totals have been average of late, which is a main reason for the under run, but on the season, the Rebels are averaging 519.6 ypg which is 11th highest in the nation. They will be playing with a chip on their shoulder as well as Mississippi was shutout in Arkansas last season 30-0 so they will have a lot to prove. The Rebels control their own destiny in the SEC West so they will be ready. Arkansas is 21-9 to the over in its last 30 road November games. 10* Over (409) Arkansas Razorbacks/(410) Mississippi Rebels |
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11-07-15 | Vanderbilt v. Florida OVER 36 | Top | 7-9 | Loss | -109 | 44 h 11 m | Show |
This is the lowest total on the board for Saturday and we will take advantage of the number that the linesmakers were forced to post. The Commodores have failed to go above the total in any game this season and while they are coming off a game where they were shutout, that makes this a good spot for the offense to do at least a little something. This is the lowest total Florida has seen this season and it too has been on an under run, going below the total in three of its last four games. While the Gators will be facing a strong Vanderbilt defense, they are averaging 31 ppg this season and last week, the Commodores allowed a season-high 34 points against Houston. Despite the midseason quarterback change as a result of Will Grier's suspension for testing positive for a substance banned by the NCAA, the Gators quickly stabilized when Treon Harris took over. Of his 44 completions, 12 have gone for 20 or more yards (27.3 percent) and his big play ability is good for the offense. Florida has gone over the total in eight of its last 11 home games while going 7-3 to the over in its last 10 games after allowing 20 points or fewer. 10* Over (341) Vanderbilt Commodores/(342) Florida Gators |
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11-06-15 | Temple v. SMU OVER 54.5 | Top | 60-40 | Win | 100 | 57 h 41 m | Show |
Temple is coming off a very tough loss at home last Saturday night and that can lead to a letdown here. When teams fall into this situation, it tends to affect the defense more which I expect to happen here. Saturday night marked the first game Temple played in which both teams were ranked which also provides quite the letdown. The good news for the Owls is that they are facing a horrible team and the offense that has struggled the last couple games should be able to score at will. While the defense will not completely collapse, all we should need is a couple SMU scores to push this one over. The Mustangs have lost six straight games with the defense being the big culprit as they have allowed point totals of 56, 48, 49, 49, 38 and 40 points. Overall, SMU is ranked 120th in total defense and 123rd in scoring defense while Temple comes in 58th in scoring offense. Another factor that helps here is the pace of the game as the Mustangs have run 608 plays in just eight games and the 76 plays per game on offense are good for 29th most in the nation. The solidifier is the fact that each team has gone under the total in their last two games and that is providing some value. Temple is 10-1 to the over in its last 11 road games after allowing 6.75 yppl or more in their previous game while SMU is 6-0 to the over in its last six games coming off a home conference loss. 10* Over (319) Temple Owls/(320) SMU Mustangs |
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11-05-15 | Mississippi State v. Missouri OVER 42 | Top | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 36 h 8 m | Show |
Mississippi St. comes in a hefty road favorite in Missouri as it has rolled to three straight wins following a loss to Texas A&M while the tigers are riding a three games losing skid as the offense has been nowhere to be found. The Bulldogs hit the road for the first time in over a month but after scoring 45, 45 and 42 points their last three games, I expect that offense to keep chugging along despite playing a very tough defense in Missouri. The Tigers have gone under the total in all eight of their games this season thanks to a good defense and an offense that has shut down of late. They have scored just 12 points over their last three games but Missouri has faced three very strong defenses in those three games as the opposition was ranked 15th, 21st and 23rd while Mississippi St. comes in 53rd in total defense. That is a respectable ranking but the Bulldogs are far from dominant. We are getting a great number here to work with as this is about right on track with recent Missouri closing totals but this one is 10 points lower than the lowest over/under Mississippi St. has seen all season. That alone is worth the play here and the one team with the contrarian value, Missouri, is 9-1 to the over in its last 10 home games following a loss as a favorite while going 23-7 to the over in its last 30 games after two straight games of forcing one or fewer turnovers. It won't take a lot to push this one over the total. 10* Over (315) Mississippi St. Bulldogs/(316) Missouri Tigers |
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11-03-15 | Northern Illinois v. Toledo UNDER 61 | Top | 32-27 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
When these two teams are brought up, the word shootout comes to mind and that has been the case recently for both. The Rockets have gone over the total in two straight games while the Huskies have gone over the total in three straight games. But when it comes to these two playing each other, it has been a lower scoring series with the under coming through in the last three meetings. Both teams do bring in highly potent offenses but they also come in with very underrated defenses and those are the units that should take greater control tonight. Toledo and Northern Illinois are ranked 51st and 52nd respectively in total defense and both the rushing and passing units are equally good. Offensively, they are not as similar but both want to be a run team and establishing the run will be the goal tonight. That is a clock eater and while both teams has been hitting with big plays, that likely will not happen tonight because of the strength of the defenses. Northern Illinois is 16-5 to the under in its last 21 games after gaining 525 or more total ypg over their last three games while Toledo is 22-10 to the under against teams averaging 425 or more ypg. The situation and opponent also calls for a low scoring game as the under is 5-0 in the Huskies last five road games against teams with a winning home record and the under is 12-4 in the Rockets last 16 games against teams with a winning record. 10* Under (301) Northern Illinois/(302) Toledo Rockets |
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10-31-15 | Vanderbilt v. Houston OVER 49 | Top | 0-34 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 40 m | Show |
The Vanderbilt offense has been horrible of late but playing in the SEC can do that to teams. Now playing an out of conference game against a team with a weak defense can change that. The Commodores have scored a grand total of 53 points over their last four games and they have been terribly inefficient, ranking 115th nationally in turnovers and 126th in red-zone scoring. While not great numbers, they take on a Cougars defense that has been very inconsistent as well. They have allowed just 17 points the last two games but those came against UCF and Tulane which are a combined 2-13. The Houston offense will give Vanderbilt a challenge even though the Commodores possess a tough stop unit. Houston's offense is averaging 569 ypg over the last five games while scoring no fewer than 38 points. This is the lowest over/under the Cougars have seem all season and it is that way because of the results from Vanderbilt which has yet to go over a total this season. Houston is 16-6 to the over in its last 22 home games coming off a double-digit conference win while going 12-3 to the over in its last 15 home games after scoring 24 or more points in the first half of its previous game. While the Commodores are on an under run, they are 9-3-1 to the over in their last 13 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. 10* Over (167) Vanderbilt Commodores/(168) Houston Cougars |
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10-31-15 | USC v. California OVER 69.5 | Top | 27-21 | Loss | -106 | 53 h 41 m | Show |
This has the makings of a shootout which is the reason for the big number. The California offense is an explosive one but has been held in check the last two games against Utah and UCLA as it scored just 24 points in each game. Those were both on the road however so a return home is what the Golden Bears need to get the offense going again. Possible No. 1 pick in next year's NFL Draft, Jared Goff, leads the passing offense that ranks second behind only pass happy Washington State in the Pac 12 with 346 ypg. The Trojans did a phenomenal job getting pressure on Travis Wilson last week, forcing him into throwing four interceptions, but have been exposed by the likes of Kevin Hogan and DeShone Kizer. The young secondary will surely be tested here. USC quarterback Cody Kessler isn't far behind as the Trojans are averaging over 326 ypg which is 14th in the nation and he has thrown 18 touchdowns to just five interceptions. The Golden Bears have allowed 70 points the last two games while giving up 259.6 ypg and 12.4 yards per completion as the secondary is a very weak unit. California's secondary was carved up by UCLA freshman QB Josh Rosen, who completed 34-of-47 passes for 399 yards and three touchdowns. Kessler had a huge game against Cal last season, completing 31-of-42 for 371 yards with four touchdowns and one interception. 10* Over (153) USC Trojans/(154) California Golden Bears |
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10-31-15 | Rutgers v. Wisconsin OVER 51.5 | Top | 10-48 | Win | 100 | 50 h 42 m | Show |
We played against Rutgers last week as it managed just seven points against the Buckeyes and while it is facing another tough defense, there is the hope of more offense this week. The Scarlet Knights defense has been atrocious of late as they have allowed 49 and 52 points which is right around where this number sits and it happens to be the lowest over/under Rutgers since facing Penn St. back on September 19th. The under has come in four of their last five games which helps with the value and the number itself. Wisconsin is on a much longer streak as it has stayed below the total in six straight games after starting the season 2-0 to the over. Defense has been the story as the Badgers have allowed just 7.7 ppg throughout this under streak while the offense has been pretty average. Wisconsin has scored no more than 28 points but it has faced some tough defenses along the way and Rutgers is not classified in that group. The Scarlet Knights are ranked 111th in total defense so the Badgers are expected to have a big day offensively. Despite the recent run of unders, Wisconsin is 15-3 to the over in its last 18 home games coming off a double-digit conference win and 28-14 to the over in its last 42 games when playing against teams with a losing record. 10* Over (131) Rutgers Scarlet Knights/(132) Wisconsin Badgers |
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10-29-15 | Dolphins v. Patriots UNDER 51.5 | Top | 7-36 | Win | 100 | 57 h 19 m | Show |
Miami has turned its season completely around since its London trip with the firing of Joe Philbin and the hiring of Dan Carpenter as head coach. The big turnaround has been on the offensive side as the Dolphins have scored 82 points over their last two games after scoring 65 points in their first four games. Because of the resurgence, the Dolphins went over the total in those two games and now the number this week has been adjusted and by too much in my opinion as this is the highest over/under Miami has encountered this season. Also, it is the first time the Dolphins have seen a total in the 50's since Week 13 of the 2012 season. Coincidentally, that was also against New England and it stayed well below the total. New England has also gone over the total in two straight games as well as four of its last five which is also playing a role in this week's total. The Patriots offense has been in high gear all season and while Miami has struggled on defense, that unit has also improved the last two weeks. Four of seven Thursday night games have gone over with two of the unders staying below by a total of just three points so the public continues to play the over on these nationally televised games. Both teams fall into a fantastic league-wide situation as we play the under involving any team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 against division opponents, off a home win. This situation is 65-28 (69.9 percent) to the under since 1983. Additionally, Miami is 19-5 to the under in its last 24 games after gaining 6.0 or more yppl in two consecutive games. 10* Under (101) Miami Dolphins/(102) New England Patriots |
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10-25-15 | Minnesota Vikings v. Detroit Lions OVER 44 | Top | 28-19 | Win | 100 | 46 h 9 m | Show |
We played the over in the Vikings/Chiefs game last week and it didn't come close as only 26 points were scored and that resulted in the first five games of their season going under the total. We are going contrarian here as they face a pretty rough defense while their own defense will be challenged here. The Lions are coming off an overtime win over the Bears as they scored a season-high 37 points following four straight games where they tallied 17 points or fewer. Detroit has outgained the last two opponents and being home in its third straight game presents another great opportunity to keep the offense rolling. The Lions are 6-0 to the over in their last six home games against teams allowing 350 or more ypg while Minnesota falls into a contrarian league-wide situation where we play the over involving any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points coming off one or more consecutive unders, with defense that is allowing 17 or fewer ppg. This situation is 73-40 (64.6 percent) to the over the last 10 seasons. Weakness against weakness is a strong edge for the Vikings offense here that has scored just 23 combined road points and going against the last four unders in this series serves a contrarian angle as well. 10* Over (461) Minnesota Vikings/(462) Detroit Lions |
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10-25-15 | Cleveland Browns v. St Louis Rams UNDER 42 | Top | 6-24 | Win | 100 | 46 h 9 m | Show |
As mentioned last week, probably one of the biggest surprises this season has been the Cleveland offense as the Browns are averaging 364.2 ypg and 23.5 ppg after coming into the season which looked like a hapless quarterback situation. They are ranked 10th in total offense and 12th in scoring offense so the fact they have gone over the total in all six games is very surprising. Last Sunday, it took a high scoring second half which included a defensive score after a 10-point first half and then produced overtime on top of that. The Rams boast a very strong defense and while not as stringent as the Broncos, it is still a top ten unit. Offensively, St. Louis is one of the worst in the NFL as it is ranked second to last in both total offense and scoring offense so as much as the Browns have struggled at times on defense, do not expect much here for the Rams as they have scored 10 points or less in three of five games. Cleveland falls into a solid situation where we play the under involving road teams against the total that are allowing 370 or more ypg going up against a team allowing between 335 to 370 ypg, after allowing 375 or more total yards in three consecutive games. This situation is 29-9 (76.3 percent) to the under since 1983. 10* Under (453) Cleveland Browns/(454) St. Louis Rams |
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10-24-15 | Missouri v. Vanderbilt OVER 35 | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -106 | 74 h 51 m | Show |
Based on contrarian theory, which I am a big believer in, this has a potential to be a very high scoring game. Recent results completely go against that but that is where we get the most value as these totals need to be adjusted almost to the point where a game cannot be played the other way. Missouri is coming off a defensive battle against Georgia last weekend as it lost 9-6 to the Bulldogs which was its seventh straight under to start the season. The offense has been inept the last two weeks as the Tigers have managed just nine points total but they will definitely improve upon that this week against Vanderbilt based on the bounce angle. The Commodores come in on a 5-0 under run in its lined games as they have also had trouble on the offensive side of things. They will face a defense that is ranked eighth in the nation in total defense but for both sides, this is the lowest over/under so far this year. The under run is surprising for the Commodores as they lead the SEC with an average of 39.7 pass attempts per game. Even in the Commodores two victories, they averaged 30 passing attempts. Overall, Vanderbilt is averaging 399 ypg, much better than last season's 283.3 ypg. Here, we play the over involving road teams where the total is 42 or less after allowing three points or less in the first half last game going up against an opponent after scoring 14 points or less last game. This situation is 26-5 (83.9 percent) to the over the last 10 seasons. 10* Over (333) Missouri Tigers/(334) Vanderbilt Commodores |
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10-24-15 | Duke v. Virginia Tech OVER 43.5 | Top | 45-43 | Win | 100 | 74 h 30 m | Show |
Duke ranks second nationally in passing defense with 131.2 ypg, second in scoring defense with 9.3 ppg and fourth in total defense with 252.8 ypg, a stark contrast to the offensive-minded teams that have come to define the Blue Devils' recent resurgence under coach David Cutcliffe. Of the five FBS teams the Blue Devils have played, four - Army, Northwestern, Boston College and Tulane - are ranked 109th nationally or worse in yards per game. The only Duke opponent in the top half of FBS offenses is Georgia Tech, which barely made the cut at 58th. Virginia has played much of the season with backup quarterback Brenden Motley though that will change this week with Michael Brewer back in the starting lineup. Brewer gives the team a more stable option with his experience and despite playing with a backup as well as facing three teams that currently reside in the top 20 nationally in total defense, the Hokies are averaging 5.49 yppl which is half a yard better than last season. Virginia Tech was long known for its defense but that is not the case this season as it is a pretty average unit. The Blue Devils have been average on that side of the ball as well but facing Northwestern and Boston College, ranked 18th and 1st in the country respectively, has had a lot to do with that. Duke is 7-0 to the under while Virginia Tech has gone under in three straight games and that puts this total into another great contrarian situation that we can take advantage of with a low posted total. 10* Over (361) Duke Blue Devils/(362) Virginia Tech Hokies |
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10-24-15 | Pittsburgh v. Syracuse UNDER 49 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 70 h 1 m | Show |
We played on Syracuse and Virginia to go under the total last Saturday and it was one of the worst total beats you will see. It went over the total by 31 points which may not seem like a bad beat at all but consider the fact that after scoreless first quarter, 35 fourth quarter points were scored including two defensive touchdowns. Then the game was sent into overtime on a field goal as time expired and then 34 overtime points were scored. That made it six straight games that have gone over the total to start the season after closing last season with six straight unders. Pittsburgh meanwhile is coming off a high scoring game against Georgia Tech which is also playing into this total. The number this week is slightly higher than it was last week despite playing a Syracuse offense that is ranked 110th in the nation in total offense compared to the Yellow Jackets being ranked 61st in total offense. Georgia Tech does have a better defense but not much as it is ranked 52nd compared to 69th for Syracuse. This has been a very low scoring series of late, averaging 32.3 ppg with all three of those staying well below the total. Going back, Syracuse is 25-11 to the under in its last 36 games after allowing 37 points or more last game and 17-6 to the under in its last 23 games after three or more consecutive straight up losses. Meanwhile, the under is 5-2 in the Panthers last seven games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. 10* Under (325) Pittsburgh Panthers/(326) Syracuse Orange |
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10-18-15 | Denver Broncos v. Cleveland Browns UNDER 42.5 | Top | 26-23 | Loss | -108 | 49 h 49 m | Show |
Probably one of the biggest surprises this season has been the Cleveland offense as the Browns are averaging 377.4 ypg and 23.6 ppg after coming into the season which looked like a hapless quarterback situation. They are ranked eighth in total offense and 13th in scoring offense but now they face a big test in the Broncos defense which leads the league in fewest yards allowed and is second in scoring defense. Even with Demarcus Ware sitting this one out and Aqib Talib hurting with an ankle injury, Cleveland should have a difficult time consistently moving the ball here. While the Browns defense has been very poor, don't expect Denver to fare too well. The Broncos are averaging 302 ypg which is 30th overall while their seven interceptions, all on Peyton Manning, sits 31st. Manning's 79 pass attempts against the blitz rank second most in the NFL, according to STATS, LLC. He's on pace to throw 212 passes against blitzes, more than any quarterback last season while his 12 passing plays of more than 20 yards ranks 26th and he has completed only five of 19 passes of at least 21 yards. The running game is not helping out as Denver is averaging just 71. 6 ypg which is 30th in the league. Cleveland has gone over the total in all five of its games which is adding value to this total. The Browns are 6-0 to the under in their last six games against winning teams and both teams fall into the same situation where we play the under involving teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points in conference games, off a division game. This situation is 169-111 ATS (60.4 percent) the last five seasons. 10* Under (251) Denver Broncos/(252) Cleveland Browns |
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10-18-15 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Minnesota Vikings OVER 43 | Top | 10-16 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 48 m | Show |
Kansas City has lost four straight games following a season opening win and now has to move forward without the services of running back Jamaal Charles. While that seems to hurt the offense, it could very do the opposite at least early on as it should open things up. The Chiefs are coming off a very low scoring games against the Bears but it needs to be noted that the first four games of the season all went over the total. The real issue is the defense as the Chiefs went through a stretch of allowing 31, 38 and 36 points three consecutive games and while the Vikings offense isn't perceived as a strong one, they should have great success here. Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has learned to slide and move up in the pocket when his edge blockers don't hold and he can exploit the lack of depth in the Chiefs secondary by working out of three-wide sets. And of course there is Adrian Peterson who is averaging 113.7 ypg and is capable of breaking a long one every time he touches the ball. Minnesota has gone under the total in all four of its games so we are bucking that trend in what looks to be a good matchup on both sides for the offense. Kansas City is 22-9 to the over in its last 31 games after three or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1992 while Minnesota is 18-7 to the over in its last 25 games off a cover where it lost as an underdog. Additionally, Kansas City falls into a situation favoring a high scoring game where we play the over involving road teams that are coming off a loss as a home favorite, in the first half of the season. This situation is 78-41 (65.5 percent) to the over the last 10 seasons. 10* Over (255) Kansas City Chiefs/(256) Minnesota Vikings |
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10-18-15 | Arizona Cardinals v. Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 45 | Top | 13-25 | Win | 100 | 49 h 47 m | Show |
The Steelers are back home following a win Monday night on the west coast over San Diego as time ran out which brought it to 3-2 on the season as it looks to keep pace with the Bengals until Ben Roethlisberger gets back. While the defense has been getting some bad pub, it has actually been holding its own as the Steelers have allowed 16.8 ppg over their last four games. They will be challenged here against the Cardinals that are averaging 38 ppg which is the highest in the NFL but they have been fortunate to square off against some very bad defenses. The one defense that held them in check was the Rams and expect another inconsistent effort here. On the other side, the Steelers offense has been pretty bad with Michael Vick at quarterback. He did nothing against Baltimore as Pittsburgh put up just 263 yards and against the Chargers, it posted just 349 yards with the majority of that being in the final two scoring drives in the fourth quarter. Arizona has a very strong defense as it is ranked eighth in total defense and fifth in scoring defense, allowing 332.4 ypg and 18.0 ppg respectively. The Cardinals have gone over in all five games so we are again bucking a season opening trend with the value sitting on the other side. Additionally, the Cardinals fall into a situation favoring a low scoring game as we play the under involving teams with a winning percentage of .750 or better where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points after having won three out of their last four games, playing a team with a winning percentage between .501 and .600. This situation is 33-11 (75 percent) to the under since 1983. 10* Under (263) Arizona Cardinals/(264) Pittsburgh Steelers |
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10-17-15 | Missouri v. Georgia OVER 45.5 | Top | 6-9 | Loss | -108 | 76 h 41 m | Show |
Georgia last lost two straight games to fall from out of playoff consideration and this feels like the game that the offense is going to explode. The Bulldogs are averaging 37.3 ppg on the season while putting up 451.3 ypg and with the absence of running back Nick Chubb, we should see the Bulldogs air the ball out more. Georgia now is seeing its smallest total of the season and one that is close to two touchdowns lower than that of last week. Part of that is due to the opponent as Missouri has struggled on offense in half of its games but the potential is there against a defense that has been gashed the last two games. The total is low as expected because of the inconsistent offense with another reason being the Tigers going under the total in all six of their games this season. Quarterback Maty Mauk will not be in uniform against and freshman Drew Lock will be making his third start which is typically the time quarterbacks start becoming more comfortable. His first start came against South Carolina and Georgia's defense is more in line with the Gamecocks defense as opposed to Florida who he faced last week and struggled. The Gatos defense is ranked 16th in the nation in total defense. Missouri falls into a great situation for a high scoring game as we play the over involving teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 coming off three or more consecutive unders, and averaging between 16.5 and 21 ppg going up against teams averaging 21 and 28 ppg. This situation is 32-10 (76.2 percent) to the over since 1992. 10* Over (165) Missouri Tigers/(166) Georgia Bulldogs |
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10-17-15 | Appalachian State v. UL-Monroe OVER 50 | Top | 59-14 | Win | 100 | 75 h 10 m | Show |
Appalachian St. is coming off its first conference win over Georgia St. as it hung 37 points on the Panthers as the offense remains explosive. The Mountaineers played a game against Clemson and its 13th ranked defense so take that game out and they are averaging 41.5 ppg and surpassing that number this week should be no issue. They face a ULM defense that is allowing 412.8 ypg and 34 ppg, 87th and 101st in the nation respectively so there will once again be little resistance. Surprisingly, Appalachian St. has stayed under the total in all five of its games but the matchups have had a lot to do with that and this one screams over. The Warhawks offense has been pretty solid against like opposition as take out games against Georgia and Alabama and they are averaging 34 ppg in their other three games. They will be facing a tough defense so it is not going to be easy for ULM but playing at home certainly helps and we are not asking them to even come close to that 34 ppg average as most of the points will be coming from the other side. The Warhawks have gone under the total in three of their last four which is also because of matchups. This week, the Mountaineers are seeing their lowest posted total and ULM is seeing its second lowest. The over is 28-13-1 in the Warhawks last 42 games against teams with a winning record including a 4-0 over run in their four home games vs. a team with a winning road record. This one should fly over the number. 10* Over (185) Appalachian St. Mountaineers/(186) ULM Warhawks |
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10-17-15 | Syracuse v. Virginia UNDER 54 | Top | 38-44 | Loss | -107 | 72 h 32 m | Show |
Virginia opened the season with an under against UCLA with the closing total being 53. Since then, the Cavaliers have had no games go under the total and all of those closed in the 40's. On the other side, Syracuse is a perfect 5-0 to the over on the season and like Virginia, all of those totals closed in the 40's. Because of the high scoring games (Syracuse is averaging 55.6 ppg and Virginia is averaging 58 ppg) the total this week is the highest both teams have seen. Granted the total is still below what each team is averaging in its games but because the number is way above what they are accustomed with, the value is big. The defenses of both sides are not great but the offenses do not have much going for them and will still find it tough going. Syracuse is 108th in total offense while Virginia is 99th in total offense and typically when a poor offense goes up against a poor defense, the latter succeeds more the majority of the time. Syracuse offensive coordinator Tim Lester has struggled to establish the run early in the last couple games, but don't expect him to abandon course with freshman Eric Dungey at quarterback. Running back Jordan Fredericks should test a Virginia defense that's allowed more than 4.5 ypc this season and of course, more running the better as it eats more clock. Syracuse is 31-12 to the under in its last 43 games after being outgained by 17 or more total yards in its previous game while Virginia has gone 8-1-1 to the under in its last 10 ACC games. 10* Under (137) Syracuse Orange/(138) Virginia Cavaliers |
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10-11-15 | New Orleans Saints v. Philadelphia Eagles OVER 49 | Top | 17-39 | Win | 100 | 95 h 31 m | Show |
Last week we saw a massive number of game going under the total in college football with 45 of 57 games falling below the number and while the percentage in the NFL was not as big, 10 of 15 games stayed under the total. While we aren't seeing quite the same value shift this week across the board, this is one game that could feasibly turn into a shootout. The Eagles came into the season ready to put up some big offensive displays but we have yet to see that as all four of their games have stayed under the total. Philadelphia averaged 29.6 ppg last season and this year, it is averaging just 19.5 ppg and is ranked 29th in total offense. This unit is bound to turn things around at some point and this could very well be the breakout game. The Saints are allowing 381.5 ypg and 26 ppg, both of which are 24th in the league. They also are coming off an under last week despite going into overtime and while that was their best defensive effort of the season, going back to see them allow 27 points to Carolina and 26 points to Tampa Bay shows this defense is not very good. On the other side, the Eagles have been solid on defense while New Orleans has been average on offense but we should see a fast paced game here which can no doubt help Drew Brees and the offense. The Saints are 6-0 to the over in their last six games in the first half of the season while going 8-0 ATS in their last eight games against teams averaging 70 or fewer rushing ypg. Meanwhile, the over is 5-1 in the Eagles last six games against teams with a losing record while the over is 10-4 in their last 14 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* Over (461) New Orleans Saints/(462) Philadelphia Eagles |
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10-10-15 | Colorado v. Arizona State OVER 55.5 | Top | 23-48 | Win | 100 | 102 h 17 m | Show |
Last week was an almost unprecedented week where the under came in 45 of 57 lined games in college football and that has affected the totals for many of this week's games, especially for those teams that are on under runs. We will be using both of these to our advantage for the three games we are playing the over in. This is a situation where both teams have seen a huge majority of their games go under the number. Colorado is coming off its third straight under and fourth in fifth games as 65 points were scored against Oregon but that was still not enough to push it over. In five games, the posted closing total wax in the 60's while the other was at 56.5 so the Buffaloes are facing their lowest total of the season. Colorado is ranked 38th in total offense so it has the ability to move the ball. Arizona St. meanwhile has seen all five of its games stay below the number which is also part of the reason of the huge overadjustment this week. Both offense and defense have been up and down and overall, the Sun Devils are ranked 44th in total offense and 60th in total defense. All five of the Sun Devils games have had closing totals in the 60's so there is huge value in their side of this total as well. While the teams are a combined 9-1 to the under, that would go to 5-5 had the total be what they are using this week. Colorado is 11-3 to the over in its last 14 games when playing against a team with a winning record and 21-5 to the over in its last 26 games after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in two straight games while Arizona St. is 10-2 to the over in its last 12 games after failing to cover the spread in two out of its last three games. Over (369) Colorado Buffaloes/(370) Arizona St. Sun Devils |
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10-10-15 | Northwestern v. Michigan OVER 35 | Top | 0-38 | Win | 100 | 96 h 47 m | Show |
Last week was an almost unprecedented week where the under came in 45 of 57 lined games in college football and that has affected the totals for many of this week's games, especially for those teams that are on under runs. We will be using both of these to our advantage for the three games we are playing the over in. This is the biggest contrarian situation of all three and we are catching an unheard of number in the college game. Michigan and Northwestern bring in two of the best defenses in the country as the Wolverines are ranked 2nd in total defense and 2nd in scoring defense while the Wildcats are ranked 5th in total defense and 1st in scoring defense. Those are obviously some incredible rankings but we have to take a look at the opposition. Of the nine FBS teams that they have faced, the total offense rankings are 112th, 64th, 63rd, 31st, 114th, 81st, 87th, 111th and 76th. So the schedules have been very favorable. Because of the stout defenses, both teams have stayed below the number in all five of their games and because of that, we are getting great value on this adjusted total. Rarely do you see a college game with an over/under in the mid-30's but that is the case here. While the defenses could still control the game, it will not take a lot for this one to go over. Michigan has a great situation on its side to go high as we play the over involving teams that are averaging 4.8 or more ypc going up against a team averaging between 3.5 to 4.3 ypc, after allowing 1.5 or less ypc last game. This situation is 36-9 (80 percent) to the over the last five seasons. Additionally, Northwestern is 17-6 to the over in its last 23 games against teams who allow 14 or fewer ppg. Over (373) Northwestern Wildcats/(374) Michigan Wolverines |
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10-10-15 | Kent State v. Toledo OVER 44 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 95 h 8 m | Show |
Last week was an almost unprecedented week where the under came in 45 of 57 lined games in college football and that has affected the totals for many of this week's games, especially for those teams that are on under runs. We will be using both of these to our advantage for the three games we are playing the over in. Toledo is expected to win the MAC West behind an offense that averaged close to 500 ypg and 36.6 ppg a season ago. While only five starters are back, the quarterback, leading rusher and leading receiver are three of those. The Rockets are averaging 26.8 ppg which is a significant decline but they have scored 30 or more points two times. Because of the offense not hitting its potential and a defense that has overachieved, Toledo has gone under the total in all four games. Kent St. meanwhile is coming off a low scoring game against Miami Ohio which was its second under in four games. The total against the RedHawks closed at 43 and we are seeing a very light increase here despite playing an offense that is significantly better. As for Toledo, this is the lowest over/under it has seen this season by over 10 points so it is a massive overadjustment. It should be noted that Kent St.'s two best defensive efforts came against teams ranked 105th and 112th in total offense and 121st and 126th in scoring offense. The over is 5-1 in the Golden Flashes last six games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game while the over is 20-7 in Toledo's last 27 home games when playing against a team with a losing record and the over is 15-3 in its last 18 home games after outgaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in its previous game. Over (333) Kent St. Golden Flashes/(334) Toledo Rockets |
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10-08-15 | Washington v. USC OVER 56 | Top | 17-12 | Loss | -106 | 53 h 20 m | Show |
Both Washington and USC are coming off an under in their last games which is providing some value heading into this one. The Huskies have gone under the total in three of four games with the lone game going over by just 2.5 points while USC is 2-2 with totals with one of those games going over by just 1.5 points. The USC defense is not as good as it may look as far as points allowed, which sits at 17.5 ppg. The Trojans are allowing 410 ypg on the season which is 90th in the country and that includes holding Idaho to 311 total yards. In the last game against Arizona St., USC allowed just 14 points but gave up 454 total yards and was the beneficiary of four Sun Devils turnovers. Washington meanwhile is allowing just 15.8 ppg and 321 ypg which is 17th and 29th in the nation but those numbers and rankings are skewed because of a game against Sacramento St. of the FCS where they pitched a shutout and gave up 212 total yards. Take that game out of the equation and the numbers are much more average. Washington allowed 481 yards to California in its last game and while that offense is great, the Trojans offense is even better. The Trojans fall into a solid situation favoring a high scoring game as we play the over involving teams off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival going up against opponent off an upset loss as a home favorite. This situation is 63-28 (69.2 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, Washington is 18-5 to the over in its last 23 road games teams averaging 37 or more ppg while USC is 12-2 to the over in its last 14 home games after scoring 31 points or more in four straight games. 10* Over (305) Washington Huskies/(306)USC Trojans |
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10-02-15 | Connecticut v. BYU OVER 45.5 | Top | 13-30 | Loss | -106 | 62 h 10 m | Show |
We are basing this on contrarian theory as we have seen some low scoring games between these two teams. Connecticut has seen all four of its games go under the total as the offense has really struggled to move the ball and to score as the Huskies are ranked 120th in total offense and 125th in scoring offense. Something says they get it going this week however as BYU has allowed at least 24 points in each game. The Cougars have gone under in each of their last two games as the offense is coming off a pair of bad efforts. They will be facing another tough defense but returning home will make a big difference as they tallied 35 points in their lone home game this season against Boise St. and the Broncos have a better defense than Connecticut. BYU is ranked 107th in total offense as the running game has held it back but it is tied for first in the nation in redzone offense. These teams played last season and while that game stayed below the total, it closed over a touchdown higher than what the number is this year. The Cougars have not seen a total this low since 2012 which represents a big overreaction to what has transpired early in the season. 10* Over (109) Connecticut Huskies/(110) BYU Cougars |
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10-01-15 | Miami (Fla) v. Cincinnati UNDER 68.5 | Top | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 35 h 26 m | Show |
We played on Cincinnati last week as it lost but was able to cover in its shootout with Memphis. That was the fourth straight game to go over the total for the Bearcats and because of that, we are seeing a ridiculously high number this week. Miami meanwhile has gone over the total in two of three games including the last two with the lone game staying under being a game against FCS Bethune Cookman. This is the highest total the Hurricanes have seen this season so we are definitely getting value going the other way. Both offenses have been leading the way but the defenses should be able to have success here. Cincinnati had to tangle with one of the best offenses in the nation last week and it takes a step down here. Miami meanwhile is ranked 27th in total defense while sitting 13th in passing efficiency defense. The Bearcats will be without Gunner Kiel at quarterback after suffering a scary head injury last week and while backup Hayden Moore was sensational, there will be a lot more resistance here. Miami 6-0 to the under in its last six games after gaining 6.25 or more yppl in three consecutive games over the last three seasons while Cincinnati is 19-8 to the under in its last 27 games after scoring 42 points or more last game. 10* Under (103) Miami Hurricanes/(104) Cincinnati Bearcats |
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09-26-15 | Tennessee v. Florida UNDER 48 | Top | 27-28 | Loss | -106 | 73 h 24 m | Show |
Tennessee has put together two high scoring games but the last one can be discounted against Western Carolina of the FCS. The first came against Bowling Green but the Falcons have no defense to speak of and the Volunteers will be facing its toughest defensive test of the season. In their game against Oklahoma, they were shutout in the second half and 12 points in overtime skewed the final score that still remained under the total. Florida has also been involved in two high scoring games but is coming off a defensive game against Kentucky last week. The Gators will also be facing its toughest defense so far so do not expect results like the ones from their first two games. Both teams fall into great low scoring situations. For Tennessee, we play the under involving teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 in a game involving two teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg, after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. This situation is 58-25 (70 percent) to the under the last 10 seasons. For Florida, we play the under involving teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 in a game involving two teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg, after allowing three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 42-15 (73.7 percent) to the under the last 10 seasons. 10* Under (357) Tennessee Volunteers/(358) Florida Gators |
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09-05-15 | Stanford v. Northwestern UNDER 46.5 | Top | 6-16 | Win | 100 | 91 h 14 m | Show |
Quarterback is a huge area of concern for Northwestern as senior Zack Oliver, sophomore Matt Alviti and redshirt freshman Clayton Thorson competed closely throughout the spring but no one broke away. Thorson has been named the starter so we cannot expect to see a lot of explosiveness from the Wildcats. There are a ton of unknowns around him as well as the running backs and wide receivers lack experience. Stanford lost a lot on defense as well so that unit will be rather green but there is a lot of potential and when comparing the Northwestern offense and the Stanford defense, the latter has the biggest upside. Stanford ranked 3rd nationally last year in defensive rushing S&P+, and 4th in passing S&P+, while Northwestern ranked 111th out of 129 teams in offensive S&P+. The Wildcats defense was not very good last season as they were riddled with injuries but the players that were forced into action gained valuable experience. They are not going to be an elite unit but they will be good enough to keep Stanford from going off. The Cardinal offense brings back four of five starters from the offensive line and the running game will be at the forefront after last season, they failed to produce a 1,000-yard rusher for the first time since 2007. Under head coach David Shaw, Stanford is 18-4 to the under in its 22 road games while under head coach Pat Fitzgerald, Northwestern is 13-4 to the under in its 17 non-conference home games. 10* Under (171) Stanford Cardinal/(172) Northwestern Wildcats |
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02-01-15 | Seattle Seahawks v. New England Patriots UNDER 48.5 | Top | 24-28 | Loss | -105 | 319 h 52 m | Show |
We have seen some high scoring Super Bowls in recent years as five of the last six have seen 48 points or more being scored. With the scoring going up even more this season, people are expecting to see another high scoring game but I do not think that is going to be the case this season. We have two offenses capable of putting up points but we also have two defenses that are capable of at least slowing the opposing offense down. Seattle brings in the top ranked defense into the Super Bowl in both points allowed and yardage allowed. That being said, I still think the Patriots offense is going to be able to have success, albeit not to the extent of the success that New England has had the first two games of the playoffs. As mentioned in the side report, the Seattle defense gets a lot of credit as it should but it has allowed 23.6 ppg, compared to 13.5 ppg in the other games, when facing the well above average quarterbacks this season and it is again facing someone from that group. Typically, that would mean a high scoring game but I firmly believe the other side will have a huge impact in this game and one that probably many are not expecting. The Patriots defense has been average this season, ranked 13th in total defense but a much more potent eighth in points allowed. They did give up 31 against Baltimore but since Week 12, they have allowed 17 points or less six times and have allowed an average of 16.6 ppg over their last eight games. There were some fluke games early in the season but when facing top notch quarterbacks, they have done exceptional. Against Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck (twice), Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers and Philip Rivers, they allowed an average of just 16.2 ppg. They came up huge in the AFC Championship against the Colts and overall, New England finished ninth in the NFL in rushing yards allowed and rushing ypc allowed which will be important against the Seahawks for obvious reasons. This is the highest total that Seattle has encountered all season long and it is even higher than last year's Super Bowl total. That one went over because of 14 points scored from defense and special teams and as long as we don't see that again, this one should stay under the number comfortably. 10* Under (101) New England Patriots/(102) Seattle Seahawks |
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01-04-15 | Toledo v. Arkansas State UNDER 69.5 | Top | 63-44 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
This total continues to climb which is what we were hoping for and expected and it could reach 70 by gametime which would be the highest total either team has seen all season long. We saw a low scoring game yesterday in Birmingham, or lower than we have seen of late, and while that total went down from opening, a lot of that was weather related. Prior to yesterday, the over was 11-3-1 over the last 15 bowl games so it is to a point where the linesmakers have to overadjust these numbers based on heavy public action. This is another example of that as we have two potent offenses taking the field in Mobile. The big factor here is preparation time which I feel is a big edge for the defenses as well as the makeup of both offenses. While they both like to run a faced paced attack, both rely heavily on the run as Arkansas St. averages 12.7 more runs than passes while Toledo averages 10.5 more runs than passes. Those are significant differentials and we all know how much rushing can effect a total with the clock running as much as it should be. The defenses are nothing special but both have been decent against the run which could help limit the number of really big plays. Toledo is 9-0 to the under in its last nine games against teams averaging 31 or more ppg while Arkansas St. is 7-0 to the under in its last seven games away from home after allowing 31 points or more in two straight games. 10* Under (275) Toledo Rockets/(276) Arkansas St. Red Wolves |
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01-03-15 | Baltimore Ravens v. Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 45 | Top | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 31 h 30 m | Show |
We have been waiting on this one primarily due to trying to get further information on the status of Le'Veon Bell but the news has not changed as his still has not practiced and will be a gametime decision tomorrow night. Offensive coordinator Todd Haley said Bell could play against the Ravens even if he does not practice this week. This is a big deal as far as the total goes as if he does not play or if he is limited, the passing game will become more critical which certainly favors the over. This series has gone over seven of the last nine meetings but if you look at the previous closing totals, the total for this week is more than a field goal higher than eight of those which draws some questions. Since 2008, there have been 15 meetings between these two teams and only two of those final scores would have been over the 45 posted here. The last meeting was one of those that went over the number and this one sets up as another high scoring game. This total could be placed higher but the recent runs is keeping it in check as Baltimore has stayed under the total in four straight games while the Steelers have stayed under in three straight games. When it comes to Steelers playoff football, you think defense but in reality, they have gone over the total in 21 of 29 playoff games since 1992 and while that has no bearing here, it shows that defense is not necessarily the strength in the playoffs. Here, we play the over involving road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points that are outscoring opponents by four or more ppg, after allowing three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 44-15 (74.6 percent) to the over the last five seasons. 10* Over (103) Baltimore Ravens/(104) Pittsburgh Steelers |
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01-01-15 | Ohio State v. Alabama UNDER 58.5 | Top | 42-35 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 19 m | Show |
The first year of the College Football Playoffs definitely came with some controversy but in the end, we have four very capable teams of taking home the National Championship. The second matchup is the Sugar Bowl between Ohio St. and Alabama. The Buckeyes snuck into the final four thanks to a 59-0 win over Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship as they leapfrogged TCU and now face another stiff test. Alabama had no issues with Missouri in the SEC Championship and it is a big favorite to make it to the championship game on January 12th. We will be looking at the total here however as I feel it is too big of a number with two outstanding defenses. Sure, both offenses can score a bunch and we have seen that of late with Ohio St. going over the total in three straight games and Alabama going over the total in its last two games. Those five games were basically surpassed by the offense that rolled to at least 42 points in each game. But taking a look at the defenses faced tells the story with the exception of Wisconsin which decided no to show up. Now the offenses will be facing the 10th ranked Crimson Tide defense and the 15th ranked Buckeyes defense. And I think these defenses can dictate the game and we are getting a very favorable number to work with. Both teams fall into a similar situation where we play the under in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams averaging 8.3 or more ypa, in non-conference games. This situation is 26-8 (76.5 percent) to the under the last five seasons. 10* Under (263) Ohio St. Buckeyes/(264) Alabama Crimson Tide |
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12-31-14 | Boise State v. Arizona UNDER 68 | Top | 38-30 | Push | 0 | 25 h 49 m | Show |
This is the highest total of the three New Year's Eve games and we will take advantage of that by playing the under. While this game features two offenses that can move the ball and score a ton of points, it also features two underrated defenses. While Boise St. and Arizona are ranked 39th and 103rd respectively in total defense, it seems like the Broncos have the far better defense when looking at yppl, Boise St. remains around the same ranking while the Wildcats jump up to 68th which is a better indication of where they stand. As far as the matchup, Boise St. is expected to run the ball a lot behind Jay Ajayi and for Arizona, with quarterback Anu Solomon struggling against Oregon and eventually getting benched, it is unlikely the Wildcats are going to set him free. The Broncos had a stretch of seven straight unders prior to their MWC Championship and one look at the opposition will tell you why. Both teams fall into a phenomenal late season bowl game situation that favors a low scoring game as we play the under in the second half of the season on a neutral field where the total is between 63.5 and 70 in a game involving two teams allowing between 21 and 28 ppg, in non-conference games. This situation is 24-4 (85.7 percent) to the under the last 10 seasons with the average score being just 51.3 ppg. The under is 7-2-1 in the Broncos last 10 games in December while the under is 6-1 in the Wildcats last seven games against teams with a winning record. 10* Under (251) Boise St. Broncos/(252) Arizona Wildcats |
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12-22-14 | Denver Broncos v. Cincinnati Bengals OVER 47 | Top | 28-37 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
Playoff implications are on the line tonight with both Denver and Cincinnati needing to win to further playoff opportunities. The Broncos need to win to try and keep hope alive for homefield advantage throughout the playoffs while the Bengals can get into the postseason with a win tonight and next week against the Steelers. We are seeing some value with the total tonight however as Denver has gone under in three straight games while Cincinnati is coming off a shutout last week at Cleveland while going under in five of its last six games. Those recent runs are keeping this number down with a couple of very efficient offenses that can put up some numbers. Additionally, the Bengals are ranked sixth and the Broncos are ranked seventh in neutral pace. We have not seen much the last three weeks with the Denver offense but that should change against the Bengals 22nd ranked defense despite shutting out Cleveland last week. Denver falls into a great high scoring scenario where we play the over involving road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points that are outscoring opponents by four or more ppg, after allowing seven points or less in the first half in two straight games. This situation is 36-12 (75%) to the over the last five seasons. Meanwhile, Denver is 15-6 to the over in its last 21 games after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in two straight games while the over is 11-4 in the Bengals last 15 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. 10* Over (131) Denver Broncos/(132) Cincinnati Bengals |
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12-22-14 | BYU v. Memphis UNDER 56.5 | Top | 48-55 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
BYU and Memphis come into this game riding significant winning streaks and both offenses put up some big numbers over the last three games played for each. That being said, the time off is a big advantage for the defenses and the Memphis defense has been playing at a high level all season long. Coming in to this game the Tigers have the fifth ranked defense in points allowed and BYU had a tough time when it did face a strong stop unit. The Cougars defense has not been as consistent but they have been strong in such situations as head coach Rocco Mendenhall is 12-4 to the under against teams that are outscoring opponents by 17 or more ppg. Additionally, both teams fall into similar situations as we play the under in the second half of the season where the total is between 49.5 and 56 in a game involving two teams that are outgaining opponents by 50-100 ypg. This situation is 36-8 (81.8 percent) to the under over the last five seasons. Memphis has gone under the total in its last six games against teams with a winning record and is 19-8 to the under in its last 27 games against teams averaging 31 or more ppg. Meanwhile, the under is 20-8 in the Cougars last 28 games against teams with a winning record. 10* Under (211) BYU Cougars/(212) Memphis Tigers |
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12-20-14 | South Alabama v. Bowling Green OVER 53 | Top | 28-33 | Win | 100 | 80 h 33 m | Show |
Bowling Green and South Alabama enter the Camellia Bowl in not great form as the Falcons lost their last three games and the Jaguars went down in four of their last five games. There should be plenty of motivation on both sides to try and win considering Bowling Green has not won a bowl game since 2004 and South Alabama is making its first ever appearance in a bowl game. In this case, the matchup is a good one for a lot of points to be scored. Keeping opponents off the scoreboard has been a problem for Bowling Green, which surrendered over 40 points six times and is ranked 101st in the country in scoring defense, allowing 33.9 ppg. The rushing defense is especially bad and the Jaguars can take advantage as they have five players which ran the ball at least 65 times so they can bring it from a lot areas. Even though running keeps the clock moving, the can move it in big chunks and that of course will set up the passing game. On the other side, South Alabama was solid on defense up until its final two games of the season and it could be in for a long night here. Bowling Green features one of the nation's quickest offenses, averaging 29.8 ppg and 427.8 ypg and of its 43 touchdown drives, 27 took less than 120 seconds. We should see plenty of big plays and as long as we can avoid turnovers in deep enemy territory, this one should fly over the number. 10* Over (209) South Alabama Jaguars/(210) Bowling Green Falcons |
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12-20-14 | San Diego Chargers v. San Francisco 49ers OVER 41.5 | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 79 h 44 m | Show |
Motivation plays a big role this time of year in the NFL as there are teams that are still highly motivated in trying to get into the playoffs while teams that are already eliminated are on the opposite side of that. San Diego and San Francisco respectively fall into this scenario and while the Chargers may seem like a good pick getting points, I think the motivational issues will give us an easier time with the total. Namely San Francisco and it typical strong defense may cash it in for the rest of the season knowing there is little left to play for. The 49ers defense is ranked third overall but they have struggled the last three games and there is no reason to think that won't continue here. San Diego has an average offense but after two mediocre games and with a lot on the line, I expect big improvements. The Chargers defense has slipped of late and the 49ers should be able to move the ball with Colin Kaepernick out to prove something. Two situations favor the over. First, we play the over involving home teams that matches up two teams averaging +/- 0.4 yppl differential, after gaining 250 or less total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 41-16 (71.9 percent) to the over since 1983. Second, we play the over involving teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in three straight games. This situation is 25-8 (75.8 percent) to the over the last 10 seasons. 10* Over (103) San Diego Chargers/(104) San Francisco 49ers |
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12-18-14 | Tennessee Titans v. Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 40 | Top | 13-21 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 16 m | Show |
The NFL Network cannot be too thrilled to have this yawner as the final Thursday night game of the season but that is what they got stuck with. While many will be expecting a low scoring game that will have two inept offenses going at it, I think we will see a lot more scoring than anticipated. Both teams have gone under the total in two straight games as the offenses have scored a grand total of 42 points in those four games. That doesn't come to be much of a surprise as these are two of the lowest scoring teams in football but it is the other side that will be of help. Tennessee is ranked 29th in total defense and 31st in scoring defense while Jacksonville is ranked 28th in total defense and 29th in scoring defense so even some of the worst offenses in the league can get through these stop units. Because of the public perception, the total is the lowest that each team has seen all season and it is over two points lower than the first meeting which finished at 30 total points as many will be banking on another similar finish. Tennessee falls into a great over situation as we play the involving road teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points off two or more consecutive unders and are getting outscored by opponents by 10 or more ppg. This situation is 53-23 (69.7 percent) to the over since 1983. Additionally, Tennessee is 12-2 to the over in its last 13 games after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games while the over is 5-1 in the Jaguars last six games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game. 10* Over (101) Tennessee Titans/(102) Jacksonville Jaguars |
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12-14-14 | San Francisco 49ers v. Seattle Seahawks OVER 37.5 | Top | 7-17 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 47 m | Show |
This is a contrarian play on the total but we have a lot of favorable angles calling for a high scoring game. One big factor is the total itself as it is the first time all season that either team is being presented with a total in the 30's and it is two points lower than the total in the first meeting on Thanksgiving. That first meeting stay under by a lot which is playing into this number as is the fact that San Francisco has gone under in its last four games while Seattle has gone under in its last three games. The series has seen four straight unders cash but again, this is lowest over/under of the bunch so we are getting some great value. The San Francisco offense has been plodding along of late and while the Seahawks defense presents a challenge, being the second game in three weeks, the 49ers should be well prepared on offense after a bad string of games. Seattle is averaging 28.7 ppg at home so it will get its points against a 49ers defense that has struggled in four of their last five games. Seattle falls into a solid situation as we play the over involving teams that have gone under the total by more than seven points in three consecutive games. This situation is 25-6 (80.6 percent) to the over the last five seasons. Also, Seattle has gone over in seven straight games after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games. 10* Over (329) San Francisco 49ers/(330) Seattle Seahawks |
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12-14-14 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Atlanta Falcons UNDER 55.5 | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 71 h 22 m | Show | |
This number has shot up from opening at 51 all the way to 54.5 as of Thursday afternoon. Pittsburgh has been potent on offense of late, scoring 27, 32 and 42 points in its last three games so it should drooling once again to face the Falcons defense that has struggled all season. They have had their moments however and heading home will be a big edge and in the only other time they allowed more than 500 yards, they allowed just 317 yards in their next game. Their offense is also playing at a high level and they will be facing a Steelers defense ranked in the middle of the league at 16th overall. Surprisingly though the Pittsburgh defense has played much better on the road than at home and in a must win game, I expect the defense to step up once again. Both teams have gone over the total in each of their last three games which is setting up the contrarian aspect while catching an overinflated total. Here, we play the under involving road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in the second half of the season. This situation is 45-15 (75 percent) to the under since 1983. Atlanta meanwhile is 8-0 to the under in its last eight games after allowing 400 or more yards in two straight games. 9* Under (309) Pittsburgh Steelers/(310) Atlanta Falcons |
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12-07-14 | Buffalo Bills v. Denver Broncos OVER 47.5 | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -103 | 55 h 20 m | Show |
Buffalo kept its playoff chances alive with a win last week against Cleveland to make it two straight victories which can be credited to the defense. The Bills allowed just 13 points in those two games and going back, they have gone under the total in four straight games but that changes this week as they are facing one of the best offenses in the NFL and even more so on its home field. The Broncos defeated the Chiefs last week in a game that stayed below the number, the second straight road game that fell below the total. Denver now returns home where the over has cashed four straight times thanks to an offense that has averaged 39.3 ppg in those games and even though the Bills defense has been great, this is not the spot for that to continue. Denver is 13-4 to the over in its last 17 games against teams with a winning record while going 16-4 to the over in its last 20 games after playing its last game on the road. Meanwhile, Buffalo is 6-0 to the over in its last six road games following one or more consecutive wins with an average scoring being 57.5 ppg in those games. This includes 66 points being scored with the Jets after a win over Minnesota earlier this season. 10* Over (169) Buffalo Bills/(170) Denver Broncos |
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12-07-14 | NY Giants v. Tennessee Titans UNDER 46.5 | 36-7 | Win | 100 | 52 h 14 m | Show | |
This has the makings of a snoozefest and with the recent games taking place on both sides, we are catching some excellent value in what we are saying should be a low scoring game. The Giants blew a 21-0 lead at Jacksonville last week and lost their seventh straight game and it was the second straight game that went over the total as well as fifth in the last six games. That total closed at 44 and now the number is higher this week against a team just as incompetent. Tennessee has lost six straight games with its last three surpassing the number and the Titans are also seeing a higher number this week than last week. The fact that they had a total of 46.5 in their last home game against the Steelers which are ranked third in total offense while the Giants are ranked 15th, shows this number is overinflated. Both teams have great angles as well. First, we play the under where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points involving a team outscored by opponents by seven or more ppg, after allowing 35 points or more in two straight games. This situation is 27-7 (79.4 percent) to the under since 1983. Second, we play the under in the second half of the season involving a team coming off a loss as a road favorite with a winning percentage between .250 and .400. This situation is 36-12 (75 percent) to the under since 1983. 9* Under (159) New York Giants/(160) Tennessee Titans |
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12-06-14 | Wisconsin v. Ohio State UNDER 52.5 | Top | 0-59 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 10 m | Show |
It was a very unfortunate break for Ohio St. when quarterback J.T. Barrett was lost for the season last week against Michigan. Now down to their third quarterback, the Buckeyes will not be able to win in a shootout and they will have to try and dictate the pace of this game for them to have their best shot at winning. We are still seeing a rather high total though and part of that is due to the recent history as Wisconsin has gone over in two of its last three games with a push and Ohio St. has gone over 10 of its last 11 games. So not only is there value in the number based on the contrarian angles but also the way we should see the game play out. The Badgers will try to grind out a win here by pounding the ball with running back Melvin Gordon, who rushed for 151 yards and one touchdown in last week's 34-24 win over the Golden Gophers. Ohio St. knows it has to stop the run which it has done a good job of this season. On the other side, the Wisconsin defense is ranked No. 2 in the nation because of an aggressive 3-4 scheme. The Badgers allow just 260.3 ypg and 16.8 ppg and while Cardale Jones is a capable backup quarterback, he will not be able to take control of the game against this defense. With a lot of running from both sides, the clock runs and this one stays under the total. 10* Under (127) Wisconsin Badgers/(128) Ohio St. Buckeyes |
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12-04-14 | Dallas Cowboys v. Chicago Bears OVER 51 | Top | 41-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
After going over the total in seven of the first eight weeks, Thursday nights have flipped the switch as four of the last five Thursday primetime games have stayed below the total. We are going against the recent run tonight as we waited on this until weather conditions were confirmed and it is going to be a good night in Chicago. We played on the Dallas under last Thursday which brought it to 4-2-1 to the under at home but the road has been a different story. Not only are the Cowboys winning on the road with a 5-0 record but the last four games on the highway have gone over the total and it has been the offense that has triggered that by scoring 34, 30, 31 and 31 points and after a horrible showing last week against the Eagles, I expect that offense to bounce back against a horrendous Bears defense. Chicago went over the total last Thursday in Detroit and while its last three home games have stayed under, this is easily the best offense it has seen at home over this stretch. Dallas is 10-2 to the over in its last 12 games after a loss by 14 or more points as a home favorite while the Bears are 10-4 to the over in their last 14 games after a loss by 14 or more points. Additionally, the over is 5-0 in the Cowboys last five games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game and the over is 6-0 in the Bears last six games against teams with a winning record. 10* Over (101) Dallas Cowboys/(102) Chicago Bears |
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11-30-14 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers OVER 44 | Top | 14-13 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 7 m | Show |
While we like Tampa Bay to win its first home game of the season, we like it getting done in a high scoring game. Again, this is the Bengals third straight road game and that can have a negative impact on the defense which is what happened to the Buccaneers earlier in the season when playing their third straight road game. Additionally, we are getting value based on the recent history of both sides as Cincinnati has gone under in three straight games while Tampa Bay has gone under in five straight games. The Buccaneers offense has been pretty bad for the most part but this is one of those games where they can bust out, similar to what Cleveland did in Atlanta last week. The over is 3-1-1 in the Bengals last five games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game while the over is 4-1 in the Buccaneers last five games against teams with a winning record. Cincinnati also have a fantastic situation favoring a high scoring games as we play the over involving a team after going under the total by more than seven points in three consecutive games. This situation is 23-4 (85.2 percent) over the last five seasons. Going against the recent runs gives us the contrarian angles and also helps us with the number. 10* Over (461) Cincinnati Bengals/(462) Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
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11-27-14 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Dallas Cowboys UNDER 54.5 | Top | 33-10 | Win | 100 | 73 h 0 m | Show |
The Eagles and Cowboys were both involved in high scoring games this past Sunday and we are getting some excellent value in the total because of it. It was the fourth straight over for Philadelphia as the offense put up the second most amount of points this season with both of those high output games coming at home. The Eagles are averaging 36.7 ppg at home which is the second most in the league but that average drops to 24.4 ppg on the road which is a significant dropoff. Dallas' defense has been pretty consistent both on the road and at home but and they have allowed more than 21 points at home only twice. The Cowboys have gone over the total in two straight games but those were away from home where they have gone over in three straight games. Both teams fall into great situations. First, we play the under involving home teams after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games going up against an opponent after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. This situation is 35-12 (74.5 percent) to the under since 1983. Second, we play the under involving road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, versus division opponents. This situation is 24-6 (80 percent) to the under since 1983. 10* Under (307) Philadelphia Eagles/(308) Dallas Cowboys |
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11-27-14 | Chicago Bears v. Detroit Lions OVER 47 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 69 h 0 m | Show |
The Lions return home following a two-game roadtrip where they lost both games while scoring a grand total of 15 points. They have now gone under the total in four straight games and nine of their last 10 but Thursday presents a great opportunity for a high scoring game based on situation and opponent. Detroit is coking off its worst defensive performance of the season as it allowed 34 points and 439 total yards against the Patriots. Chicago is also coming off a low scoring game, its second straight under but those games were both at home. The Bears have gone over the total in five of their six road games this season while allowing 55 and 51 points in their two most recent road outings. That should certainly help a Detroit offense that is stuck in neutral to move forward starting on Thursday. The Bears have gone over the total in their last seven road games following one or more consecutive wins and Detroit has a great situational angle on its side. We play the over in the second half of the season involving teams that are between + and - 3 ppg in scoring differential going up against teams that are between -3 and -7 ppg in scoring differential, after scoring seven points or less in the first half in two straight games. This situation is 62-28 (68.9 percent)to the over since 1983. 10* Over (305) Chicago Bears/(306) Detroit Lions |
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11-23-14 | Cleveland Browns v. Atlanta Falcons OVER 47 | Top | 26-24 | Win | 100 | 68 h 2 m | Show |
We are going with a great probability dynamic here as we are catching two teams on current totals streaks that are very uncommon. With the days of scoring in the NFL at an all time high, it is rare to find two teams involved in so many low scoring games but that is the case here with the Browns and Falcons. Cleveland has gone under the total in six straight games while Atlanta has gone under the total in six straight games as well. The most shocking thing about this is the overall body of work of the two sides. Atlanta is ranked dead last in the NFL in total defense and are 10th in total offense which would normally lead to high scoring games which obviously has not been the case. Cleveland's splits are not as extreme but they are still shaded the same way as the Browns defense is ranked 22nd in the NFL while their offense is ranked 14th. The reasoning for the lower scores has been turnovers which has taken away scoring chances on offense and prevented them on defense. This is a big anomaly and one that we can take advantage of when putting the two together as we are getting value in the number based on the current totals runs. Atlanta is much higher scoring team at home and this is their first home games since October 12th as they have played three road games as well as a game in London. Cleveland has had two low scoring road games during the run but prior to that, the first two road games went over with scores of 57 points in each. We get back to that this week. 10* Over (251) Cleveland Browns/(252) Atlanta Falcons *TOTAL OF THE MONTH* |
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11-16-14 | New England Patriots v. Indianapolis Colts UNDER 58 | 42-20 | Loss | -115 | 77 h 58 m | Show | |
Analysis for these totals will be quick and to the point as they are all based on roughly the same parameters: contrarian unders, public perception, overinflated totals and recent history. The highest total of the week goes to Indianapolis and New England and it is actually the highest total of the season thus far. Don't be surprised to see it go higher as the public will be all over this one to surpass the number base on the fact the public has cleaned up betting Sunday night overs, going 9-1 through the first 10 games. It also helps that the Patriots have eclipsed the number in seven of nine games this season including six in a row while the Colts have eclipsed the number in seven of nine games this season including two straight. The only two unders for Indianapolis have happened to come in its last two home games so while fireworks were expected then as well, it didn't happen either time. Both teams fall into similar spots. For the Colts, we play the under where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in weeks 10 through 13. This situation is 40-15 (72.7 percent) to the under since 1983. For the Patriots, we play the under where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games, in weeks 10 through 13. This situation is 22-3 (88 percent) to the under since 1983. 9* Under (473) New England Patriots/(474) Indianapolis Colts |
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11-16-14 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Green Bay Packers UNDER 55 | 20-53 | Loss | -105 | 73 h 54 m | Show | |
Analysis for these totals will be quick and to the point as they are all based on roughly the same parameters: contrarian unders, public perception, overinflated totals and recent history. Everyone saw Green Bay put up 55 points against the Bears last Sunday night so just that alone is going to bring in a lot of bets on the over not to mention the fact that the Packers have gone over the total in six straight games. What that has done has forced this total to be the highest Green Bay has seen this season and the highest it has seen since 2004. The Eagles meanwhile have gone over in two straight games as the offense is coming off another solid game against Carolina last week by scoring 45 points. However, two of those touchdowns came via defense and special teams and now Mark Sanchez will be making his first road start of the season and in a hostile environment no less. Green Bay falls into a great totals situation as we play the under where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 involving a team that has gone over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games, in weeks 10 through 13. This situation is 22-3 (88 percent) to the under since 1983. Additionally, the Eagles are 16-4 to the under in their last 20 games after scoring 40 points or more last game while the Packers are 10-2 to the under after gaining 400 or more total yards in two consecutive games. 9* Under (455) Philadelphia Eagles/(456) Green Bay Packers |
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11-16-14 | Denver Broncos v. St. Louis Rams UNDER 51 | 7-22 | Win | 100 | 69 h 28 m | Show | |
Analysis for these totals will be quick and to the point as they are all based on roughly the same parameters: contrarian unders, public perception, overinflated totals and recent history. With Peyton Manning under center, the Broncos offense can be lethal and that has been the case since their bye week as they have averaged 35.2 ppg in the six games. To no surprise, all of those games have gone over the total and this week will be the fourth straight games that the total has been in the 50's. The fact that it is only one point less than it was at New England is very surprising at the Patriots and Rams cannot be compared in the same sentence. The Rams had a string of four straight overs before going under the total in two straight games prior to last week in a game that narrowly eclipsed the total in Arizona. Now St. Louis is getting a total that is over a touchdown higher than last week and it is the highest total of the season so far. As a matter of fact, you have to go all the way back to the days of Kurt Warner and Mike Martz to fins a total that was this high so this is a huge overadjustment this week. The Broncos fall into a great totals situation where we play the under where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 involving road teams after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in the second half of the season. This situation is 40-14 (74.1 percent) to the under since 1983. 9* Under (465) Denver Broncos/(466) St. Louis Rams |
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11-14-14 | Tulsa v. Central Florida UNDER 55 | Top | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 56 h 45 m | Show |
Tulsa snapped its seven-game losing streak with a win last week against SMU which really isn't saying much. It has been a struggle for a second consecutive season for the Golden Hurricane as they will miss out on a bowl game again after a string of three straight bowl games. The defense has been the issue which is evidenced by their 8-1 over mark on the season but they have faced some tough offenses along the way. That cannot be said on Friday however as UCF is averaging just over 330 ypg which is 112th in the country. The Knights are coming off a loss against Connecticut in their last game as their own defense, which is the strength of the team, let them down by allowing 37 points. They came into that game allowing an average of just 14 ppg over their previous five games so that unit is going to come into this one ready to made amends. They have gone over the total in two straight games but now they are seeing their biggest total of the season which present some great value going the other way. This is an interesting dynamic whereas Tulsa has produced an average of 922 yards in its games which is 15th most in the country but UCF has produced an average of just 638.4 yards in its games which is the fourth fewest in the country. The Knights are the better team by far which means the game will be controlled by their game thus resulting in a low scoring game. 10* Under (317) Tulsa Golden Hurricane/(318) Central Florida Knights |
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11-13-14 | Buffalo Bills v. Miami Dolphins OVER 42 | Top | 9-22 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 42 m | Show |
The public has been absolutely killing it with the NFL Primetime overs as they have gone a combined 24-7 on Thursday, Sunday and Monday nights. While that would normally steer me to the under for this Thursday game based on percentages alone, the last two Thursday games have actually gone under the number so there is no value going that way. The value I feel is actually going the other way with both Buffalo and Miami coming off low scoring games this past week and now having to play on a short week, which can typically be a detriment to the defense. Buffalo lost to Kansas City and only 30 total points were scored which came after their game against the Jets where 66 total points were put up. Prior to that, the Bills and Vikings only scored 33 points after Buffalo put up 59 total points with the Patriots. This goes to show how one game style does not necessarily feed into the next. It can be argued that the Dolphins have had that happen based on four straight games that have gone under the total. But I think that has had a lot to do with the opponent and how the game played out. Miami has averaged 30.6 ppg in its previous five games before last week where they scored 16 points but facing the best defense in the NFL in the Lions can do that. The Over is 10-4-1 in the Bills last 15 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game and Miami falls into a great situation where we play on the over where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points involving teams off 1 or more consecutive unders and outscoring opponents +3 to +7 ppg going up against teams with a +/- 3 ppg differential. This situation is 29-8 (78.4 percent) to the over the last 10 seasons. 10* Over (309) Buffalo Bills/(310) Miami Dolphins |
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11-12-14 | Kent State v. Bowling Green OVER 52.5 | Top | 20-30 | Loss | -106 | 29 h 28 m | Show |
Bowling Green because bowl eligible last Tuesday with a win over Akron and it now has a 1.5 game lead over Ohio in the MAC East with three games remaining. After scoring 31 or more points in six of their first seven games, the Falcons have totaled just 41 points in their last two games and going back, they have gone under in their last four games. That presents us with a great opportunity to cash the over on Wednesday as Bowling Green is working with its lowest total of the season and its first one in the 50's all year. Falcons games have produced an average of 974.3 ypg this season which is the sixth highest yardage output in the country. Kent St. fell to 1-8 with a loss against Toledo last Tuesday in a game that also stayed below the total, the second straight under for the Golden Flashes. The offense has been hit or miss this season and has been the latter the majority of the time but even Kent St. should have success moving the ball against Bowling Green's 123rd ranked defense. On the other side, the defense has shown signs of good play but those times have been rare and the Golden Flashes are just 88th in total defense. They have faced four teams ranked in the top 50 in offense and have allowed an average of 38.3 ppg while allowing just 23.6 ppg in the other five games against teams ranked outside the top 50. Bowling Green falls into the former so we should see plenty of points. 10* Over (307) Kent St. Golden Flashes/(308) Bowling Green Falcons |
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11-09-14 | Chicago Bears v. Green Bay Packers UNDER 53.5 | Top | 14-55 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 24 m | Show |
The under last Sunday night was looking good through three quarters with just 32 points on the board but then Baltimore and Pittsburgh erupted for 34 points in the final quarter to push another Sunday night game over the total and make bookmakers across the world cringe once again. That is because the over is now an uncanny 8-1 on Sunday nights and overall in all primetime games, 22 of 28 games have gone over the number. The public continues to ride this trend which will come crashing down eventually and all the linesmakers can to is keep raising the number. The first meeting this season between Chicago and Green Bay closed at 51 so we are seeing close to a field goal more this time around. Some of that is due to the recent primetime scoring as well as the trends between these two teams. While the Bears went over the total in their last game prior to their bye, the Packers went over the total in their last five games prior to their bye and on the season, they are 7-1 to the over. It is a safe bet the over is going to be hammered again this week so the best bet is to wait until closer to game time as we should see it go up even more barring any weather issues which does not look to be the case as of now. Chicago is 18-7 to the under in its last 25 games after allowing 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games while going 9-1 to the under in its last 10 road games after being outgained by 100 or more yards two consecutive games. Green Bay fall into a situation where we play the under where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in weeks 10 through 13. This situation is 40-13 (75.5 percent) to the under since 1983. 10* Under (271) Chicago Bears/(272) Green Bay Packers |
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11-09-14 | Atlanta Falcons v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers OVER 45.5 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -106 | 72 h 54 m | Show |
While Atlanta was able to cover the total on its own in the first matchup, we likely will not be seeing that again here but I think the Falcons can get something going on that side of the ball after not doing much of late. After averaging 32.8 ppg through their first four games, the Falcons have averaged a mere 15.3 ppg over their last four games so it should come as no surprise that all four of these recent games have stayed under the number. Having a bye week was huge as the offensive line was severely banged up and while still not 100 percent, they are definitely in better shape now. The Falcons defense has done its part to try and get over the total as it has allowed 27 ppg over this four-game stretch which is great news for the Buccaneers which have been stuck in neutral most of the season. Tampa Bay is second to last in points scored in the league but it has faced some good defenses along the way. That changes here as Atlanta has the worst total defense in the NFL and fourth worst scoring defense. Tampa Bay has stayed under the total in its last two games which again adds to the value this week. Tampa Bay is 19-8 to the over in its last 27 games after scoring 17 points or less in three straight games while the over is 8-3 in the Falcons last 11 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Also, we play the over where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points involving road teams that are averaging 24 or more ppg, after allowing three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 40-13 (75.5 percent) to the over the last five seasons. 10* Over (263) Atlanta Falcons/(264) Tampa Bay Buccaneers |