This is a play on the MIAMI HURRICANES for our CFB Game of the Year. Indiana looks unstoppable and unbeatable at this point and the Hoosiers come in as overwhelming favorites to win the National Championship at -340 and yes we are going contrarian with value in the spread. Indiana had been listed as a 5.5-point favorite prior to the Semifinals and after the Oregon rampage, the Hoosiers were at 7.5 across the board. We have since seen it move to 8.5 which is in reality is a dead number but any extra edge could be huge. The line of scrimmage usually dictates the outcomes of most games and that will certainly be the case here. The Hoosiers usually have that advantage but not here and we start with the Miami defense. College Football Nerds on X provided a great rushing statistic, If you look at their season, in all the close games (Penn State, Iowa, Ohio St.) Indiana was held under 3.5 yards/carry. Every time Indiana ran for 4+ yards/carry vs  a P4, they won by 25+ points. In this matchup, the Hurricanes are tied for No. 7 in the country, allowing 3.0 ypc and in the three CFP games, they have allowed 255 yards on 80 carries (3.2 ypc). Overall, Miami is No. 15 in Defensive EPA and it recorded 13 sacks and 17 tackles for loss in wins over Texas A&M, Ohio St. and Mississippi. Offensively, Miami needs to run the ball and continuously run it even if there is no success early on. Miami ran 51 times against Mississippi and 37 times against Ohio St. and they line has the talent and the power to control and also, surrendered just eight sacks and 15 tackles for loss in the three games. Against Power 4 teams, Indiana has been run on more than 30 times only twice, Penn St. and Iowa and we know the results of those games. Yes, it is easier said than done, but stick to the plan and Miami will cover and has a chance to win outright. 10* (287) Miami Hurricanes

This is a play on the OREGON DUCKS for our Ducks/Hoosiers Dominator. This is a rematch of the meeting from October 11 where Indiana went to Eugene and won 30-20. The Ducks shut down Texas Tech as they won outright 23-0 as a slight dog. Oregon has dominated since the first meeting with the exception of a two-point win at Iowa and the rematch is in their favor at this number where we do not even need to win outright. In the three rematches in the CFP, the team that won the first meeting is 1-2 in the rematch as Oklahoma and Georgia lost while Mississippi was the only team to sweep but that was against Tulane. The top line rushing numbers for Oregon were not good in the first meeting but it was quarterback Dante Moore that brought it down as the three running backs that ran for more than 10 yards rushed for 103 yards on 16 carries (6.4 ypc) so they can have more success with more running attempts. Moore was not good but the tape from the first game will help immensely. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams averaging between 190 and 230 rushing ypg, after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game. This situation is 26-6 (81.3 percent) since 1992. 10* (275) Oregon Ducks

This is a play on the MIAMI HURRICANES for our CFP Canes/Rebels Enforcer. Mississippi is on borrowed time and this is the spot where it ends. The Rebels are off a huge win over Georgia and as soon as the game ended, the entire assistant coaching staff that will be heading to LSU left for Baton Rouge to be available for the opening of the transfer portal. This is not ideal for preparation as they are getting just a week as opposed to having 12 days to get ready for Georgia which was a team they knew already anyway. The offense was great against the Bulldogs but Georgia did not have much of a pass rush all year long, and against Mississippi, it had no sacks and had just three tackles for loss. Miami is a different story and facing a similar quarterback like they saw when they played Texas A&M, they sacked Marcel Reed seven times and followed that up by sacking Julian Sayin five times and in total, the Hurricanes allowed 17 total points and 134 total rushing yards. This defense is going to be the difference. Here, we play on teams on a neutral field after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after scoring 31 points or more in three straight games. This situation is 22-11 (66.7 percent) since 1992. 10* (273) Miami Hurricanes

This is a play on the WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS for our Duke’s Mayo Bowl Smash. Mississippi St. comes in 5-7 and is favored in a bowl game after coming into the season with a win total of three after winning only two games last season. The Bulldogs find themselves in the Duke's Mayo Bowl after both Iowa St. and Kansas St. opted out of playing a postseason game as they got in per their high APR numbers and also leapfrogged Florida St., Auburn, UCF, Baylor, Kansas, Rutgers and Temple because they all declined invitations as well. Ther offense was surprisingly good as it finished No. 52 in EPA but quarterback Blake Shapen has opted out and freshman Kamario Taylor will get the start. Wake Forest counters with a defense that is No. 11 in EPA and No. 8 in Success Rate and the Demon Deacons should dictate the game. The offense was below average at No. 85 in EPA but faces an awful defense that ranked No. 88 in EPA and allowed 35 points or more in half of their games including 40 or more points four times. Here, we play on neutral field teams averaging between 330 and 390 ypg going up against teams allowing between 390 and 440 ypg, in non-conference games. This situation is 26-8 (76.5 percent) since 1992. 10* (269) Wake Forest Demon Deacons

This is a play on the ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE for our Tide/Hoosiers Enforcer. Indiana is the story of college football for the second straight season as the Hoosiers went through the season undefeated which included winning the Big Ten Conference Championship over Ohio St., hanging the Buckeyes their first loss in 16 games. The Hoosiers came in as 3.5-point underdogs in that game and now are seeing over a 10-point swing and it is just too much. Indiana put up crazy points over the second half of the season, scoring 31 points or more in five of their last seven games but all five of those were against non-bowl teams. The defenses will be the focal point and while Indiana is No. 14 in EPA, Alabama is not far behind at No. 17. Offensively, the Crimson Tide were below average by their standards at No. 31 in EPA with the running game being the biggest issue with the last two games showing it at just 29 total yards on the ground. This is where we go contrarian as Indiana has allowed only one FBS team to grab 100 rushing yards. This is just the 13th time the Tide have been underdogs over the last 17 years and have gone 8-4 ATS. Here, we play on neutral field underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a win against a conference rival, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 42-12 (77.8 percent) since 2021. 10* (261) Alabama Crimson Tide

This is a play on the MIAMI HURRICANES for our Canes/Buckeyes Dominator. This line opened at 9.5 and has remained steady and we are going with the biggest underdog of the CFP Quarterfinals and the Hurricanes. Miami owned the line of scrimmage against Texas A&M as the Hurricanes had seven sacks and nine tackles for loss on defense against an Aggies team that rarely gave up either. The Buckeyes allowed Indiana to get five sacks of Julian Sayin in the Big Ten Championship and it was by far the most pressure he’s faced this season. This Miami team showed its defense is not overrated as they held Texas A&M to 89 yards rushing and that was the Aggies biggest strength. The Miami offensive line allowed only two sacks and six tackles for loss against Texas A&M which was among the nation’s best in both categories. The key for Miami will be being able to keep their run game going and not having to get into a drop back game. While the Buckeyes defense is one of the best in the country, eight teams they faced were ranked outside the top 50 in scoring including three in the bottom 15 so it is a bit skewed. Indiana gave Miami the blueprint on how to beat Ohio St. and the Hurricanes have the personnel. Here, we play on underdogs after going under the total by more than 21 points in their previous game, in December games. This situation is 21-8 (72.4 percent) since 1992. 10* (257) Miami Hurricanes

This is a play on the MICHIGAN WOLVERINES for our Citrus Bowl Smash. All of the chaos at Michigan is fueling this line but things have settled down. The firing of head coach Sherrone Moore was obviously the big news and that could have been the beginning of the end for the roster but there have only been a handful of opt-outs and interim head coach Biff Pogi said there would be no more heading into the game. The big one is quarterback Bryce Underwood who was feared to opt out but will play and he leads an offense that was actually better than what has been said as the Wolverines finished No. 35 in EPA and they did lean more on the running game which was No. 11 in EPA. Normally this would be a tough matchup but the losses on the Texas defense are enormous. Of their top 12 tacklers, seven hit the transfer portal or opted out but they did retain their top tackler. The Longhorns are extremely thin across all three levels. The Texas offense will have Arch Manning at quarterback but lost second leading receiver DeAndre Moore and the running game lost their top three running backs to the transfer portal so Michigan has the defensive edge. Here, we play against neutral field favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in non-conference games, off two consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.3 percent) since 2016. 10* (253) Michigan Wolverines

This is a play on the IOWA HAWKEYES for our Reliaquest Bowl Winner. This is a great matchup on paper as it is strength against strength and weakness against weakness so we look at the variables surrounding it. Iowa closed the season with a pair of wins over Michigan St. and Nebraska to finish 8-4 and it could have been a lot better. The Hawkeyes lost to rival Iowa St. by three points and its three Big Ten Conference defeats were by 12 combined points against Indiana, Oregon and USC. The first two were at home but this is a team with yet another potent defense and those three losses were against explosive offenses, similar to Vanderbilt, and they held them to 21.3 ppg. The Hawkeyes have a challenge against this Commodores offense and Diego Pavia but how much is he vested after losing the Heisman and partying across the country after. One of his biggest weapons, tight end Eli Stowers, opted out and he was the main third down target. The Hawkeyes offense struggled at times but only against excellent defenses and against below average units, they put up 37 or more points five times and Vanderbilt comes in No. 119 in Defensive EPA. Here, we play against neutral field favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in non-conference games, off two consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.3 percent) since 2016. 10* (249) Iowa Hawkeyes

This is a play on the ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI for our Music City Bowl Dominator. The line has come down considerably with Tennessee likely not being fully vested even though it is taking place in Nashville. The Volunteers were solid on offense as they finished No. 22 in EPA but are without a big piece. The good news for Tennessee is that quarterback Joey Aguilar is not opting out and will be playing but he will be without his top wide receiver as Chris Brazzell II who led the team with 1,017 yards and nine touchdowns and this will allow Illinois to focus more on the run game and stopping Desean Bishop. Defensively is where the real concern is as the Volunteers were No. 122 in EPA after being one of the best defenses in the country last season. They are going to be without three of their top tacklers on top of it and Illinois will take advantage as quarterback Luke Altmyer will be playing and he should have his full complement as any players in the transfer portal will be allowed to play and only one is a starter anyway. Illinois has played the tougher schedule and looking at the Tennessee schedule, its best win was 5-7 Mississippi St. in overtime and that was its only win against a bowl team. Here, we play against teams on a neutral field after being beaten by the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game. This situation is 30-11 (73.2 percent) since 2016. 10* (246) Illinois Fighting Illini

This is a play on the LOUISIANA TECH BULLDOGS for our Independence Bowl Smash. Louisiana Tech opened as a touchdown favorite and it has moved up slightly and for good reason as Coastal Carolina is one of the worst teams in a bowl game this season. The Chanticleers finished 6-6 with only one win against a bowl team and that was a win over Appalachian St. which was 5-7 and got into a bowl game because of a lack of eligible teams. In their five losses against bowl teams, they lost by 41, 38, 40, 5 and 49 points so they were rarely competitive. Overall, Coastal Carolina outgained only two FBS opponents and was outgained by an average of 167.6 ypg and the offense is in trouble here as starting quarterback Samari Collier is questionable and both starting tackles are in the transfer portal and will not play. Louisiana Tech is 7-5 with all five losses against bowl teams but four of those were on the road and the lone home loss was by one point. This is obviously not a home game but it is in Shreveport so the Bulldogs will have the crowd edge and they come in with the much better defense. Here, we play against teams on a neutral field after being beaten by the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game. This situation is 30-11 (73.2 percent) since 2016. 10* (244) Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

This is a play on the HOUSTON COUGARS for our Texas Bowl Annihilator. LSU was another Power 4 disappointment this season and head coach Brian Kelly paid the price as he was fired after a 49-25 loss to Texas A&M and the Tigers closed 2-2 after that under interim head coach Frank Wilson III. He will remain the coach in the Texas Bowl before he goes to Mississippi and the roster will be pretty decimated as he will be bringing a lot of players with him when he takes over an unknown role within the offense. The offense was bad to begin with and it will be Michael Van Buren at quarterback who will be making his fourth start. The Tigers are No. 117 in Offensive EPA and will be facing a very underrated Houston defense that started great, had a lapse and then ended great. The Houston offense got a boost as quarterback Conner Weigman announced shortly after the end of the regular season that he planned to return for his senior season after throwing for 2,475 yards and 21 touchdowns while rushing for 644 yards and 11 touchdowns. Cougars head coach Willie Fritz came into a below average situation and after going 4-8 in his first season, he led them to a 9-3 record. The opt-pouts and transfers are minimal and the Cougars are going to be extremely motivated in getting that tenth win. 10* (240) Houston Cougars

This is a play on the BYU COUGARS for our Pop Tarts Bowl Dominator. Motivation is a huge factor in bowl games and it can be hard to get a read on some teams on how motivated they will be and BYU is going to be highly motivated as it will be out to prove a point that it belonged in the CFP with the Cougars only two losses coming against Texas Tech. One positive sign for them is that head coach Kalani Sitake turned down Penn St. and signed an extension to stay in Provo and his players respect that immensely so they are in it for him and playing with that chip on their shoulder. The one main concern is that BYU will be without its top two running backs, Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year LJ Martin, and RB2 Sione Moa. Martin elected to have shoulder surgery last week to increase his healing time. It is a blow but the rest of the roster is intact. Georgia Tech head coach Brent Key said the matchup is just as important to his team, which was 8-0 and ranked in the top 10 at one point before dropping three of its last four. We do not like how the team finished so motivation can only go so far. Here, we play against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 after two or more consecutive straight up losses. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) since 2021. 10* (232) BYU Cougars

This is a play on the PENN ST. NITTANY LIONS for our Pinstripe Bowl Smash. The two biggest disappointments in the Power 4 square off in New York. Penn St. opened the season 3-0 then lost its next three games which led to the firing of head coach James Franklin and then losing its next three games with interim head coach Terry Smith before closing  with three straight wins to become bowl eligible. Penn St. has been surprisingly good on offense as it is No. 26 in EPA and No. 18 in Success Rate and will be facing a defense that is No. 50 in EPA. Ethan Grunkemeyer was not horrible at quarterback as his numbers were arguably better than Drew Allar so it has not been a downgrade which many thought it would be. He has posted a higher completion percentage and a higher passer rating while putting up an equal yards per completion.  Clemson will be down a ton due to injuries, transfers and opt-outs as 27 players will not see action including eight players that started in the regular season finale. Here, we play against teams on a neutral field averaging between 230 and 275 passing ypg going up against teams allowing between 175 and 230 passing ypg, in a non-conference game between two teams from Power 4 conferences. This situation is 24-11 (68.6 percent) since 2021. 10* (227) Penn St. Nittany Lions

This is a play on the NEW MEXICO LOBOS for our Rate Bowl Winner. Minnesota is the popular public play here based on the fact it is 6-0 in bowl games under head coach P.J. Fleck and comes in as a bowl favorite for the fifth straight season. The Gophers offense has been non-existent and they have averaged 260.5 ypg over their last four games and on the season, they have put up only 279.8 ypg against FBS opponents while scoring just 19.4 ppg. It will not be easy here against a Lobos defense that has allowed only 321.0 ypg over their last four games while giving up just 18.0 ppg over that stretch. New Mexico comes in on a six-game losing streak and should had an opportunity to play in the Mountain West Conference championship but the computer rankings that decided the tiebreakers had the Lobos in fourth position so they will be taking this game very serious under first year head coach Jason Eck. This is the first bowl game since 2016 and the first non-New Mexico Bowl since the 2004 Emerald Bowl. Here, we play against teams after gaining 250 or less total ypg over their last three games. This situation is 135-68 (66.5 percent) since 1992. 10* (221) New Mexico Lobos

This is a play on the CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS/HAWAII RAINBOW WARRIORS OVER for our CFB Total of the Month. We do not hit the totals market much but we are going in for this game which is a unique situation. California fired head coach Justin Wilcox despite a decent run and it has been interim head coach Nick Rolovich leading the Golden Bears and he heads back to his college roots. He was the quarterback at Hawaii back in the early 2000s and then was the head coach here from 2016-2019 and goes up against a former teammate. Timmy Chang takes his Rainbow Warriors into the Hawaii Bowl and the narrative here is that both coaches and former quarterbacks are going to want to put up points and we have gotten the right side of the line move. While there will likely be no running up the score, the former slingers will want to put up points in what could be one of the most entertaining Hawaii Bowls in recent memory. Maybe not a five overtime game like last season but points should be plenty. 10* Over (217) California Golden Bears/(218) Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 

This is a play on the OHIO BOBCATS for our Frisco Bowl Winner. This is the ultimate gut check as we sort of saw this yesterday with Washington St. but Ohio has more to prove with the scandal going on in Athens. First year head coach Brian Smith was fired for allegedly having relations with a student but this is a program that can withstand this as we saw it last season when head coach Tim Albin left before their bowl game and the Bobcats won the Cure Bowl. The big edge is having quarterback Parker Navaro who is not in the transfer portal as he is awaiting a decision on another year of eligibility. The line opened at 3.5 in a lot places and has gone up after the coaching news but that is where the value comes in. Taking nothing away from what Dan Mullin did in his first season with UNLV, the Rebels were one of the luckiest teams in the country at No. 11 while playing a schedule ranked No. 115. The Rebels do have the better Offensive EPA but they have been fortunate who they have played away from home as their five opponents they defeated finished a combined 18-41. Here, we play on neutral field underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a win against a conference rival, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 40-12 ATS (76.9 percent) since 2021. 10* (216) Ohio Bobcats

This is a play on the JAMES MADISON DUKES for our Dukes/Ducks Enforcer. James Madison is not getting much of a chance here with a +1100 moneyline and not many are backing the big pointspread with 77 percent of the money and 82 percent of the tickets on Oregon. There is a certain formula that the Dukes will try and create and it is a simple one, play to their strengths which will shorten the game to keep it close into the final quarter. Looking at the defense first, James Madison is going to try and make the Ducks one dimensional and it has the defense to do that which follows the same script that Iowa did in its game against Oregon. The Dukes finished No. 2 in Rushing Defense which is the third time in four years they have finished in the top 5 and it is no coincidence two of those were with Curt Cignetti there and Oregon had its worst rushing game of the season this year against Indiana. Offensively, James Madison is No. 6 in Rushing Offense and tied for No. 2 in Time of Possession so it controls tempo and any success in the running game is going to shorten this game. A lot of the talk is about how head coach Bob Chesney is distracted with his new duties at UCLA but on the other side, offensive coordinator Will Stein and defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi have taken head coaching jobs and are just as distracted. 10* (291) James Madison Dukes

This is a play on the TEXAS A&M AGGIES for our Canes/Aggies Dominator. The home field edge here is going to be a big one even though it is being downplayed because of the early start. The running game will be important and the Aggies have a significant edge when looking past the top line numbers. The strength for Miami is the rushing defense as it is No. 7 in yards allowed and No. 10 in ypc but the metrics tell a different story as the Hurricanes are tied for No. 73 in EPA/Rushing. They go up against an Aggies offense that is No. 26 in EPA/Rushing. Texas A&M has rushed for over 200 yards in seven games and South Carolina was the only team to hold Texas A&M under 100 yards rushing with the reason being the Aggies had to abandon the run after falling behind 30-3 at halftime. On the other side, the Hurricanes are No. 100 in EPA/Rushing on offense so if there is talk being thrown around that Miami has the overall rushing advantage, it does not. A lot of the success for Miami came by way of not losing the turnover battle which it did only three times and had 20 takeaways. Texas A&M turned the ball over only eight times in its first nine games but coughed it up eight times in its final three games and we will call the latter an aberration so taking care of the ball will be the big edge. 10* (298) Texas A&M Aggies

This is a play on the ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE for our CFP Tide/Sooners Enforcer. Obviously the big story in this one is whether or not Alabama actually belongs here with its three losses and the season culminating with a bad loss against Georgia in the SEC Championship. It is time to prove they belong and what better way to do it playing with double revenge, losing to the Sooners 23-21 this season and having their eight-game winning streak snapped no thanks to a -3 turnover margin and falling 24-3 last season in the second to last game of the season that essentially knocked them out of the CFP. The defenses will be the focal point and while Oklahoma is No. 2 in EPA, Alabama is not far behind at No. 17 so the quarterbacks will likely determine this outcome and Alabama has the big edge. Ty Simpson completed a season-low 48.7 percent of his passes in his last game against No. 3 Georgia but he dominated the Sooners with 326 yards passing in the first meeting. On the other side, John Mateer has been up-and-down with 12 passing touchdowns and 10 picks. He suffered an injury on his throwing hand that required surgery and now he is in for a test against the SEC’s top pass defense and he struggled in the first meeting with only 138 passing yards. 10* (295) Alabama Crimson Tide

This is a play on the MEMPHIS TIGERS for our Gasparilla Bowl Smash. While we do not have a false favorite here, we have an overpriced favorite and Memphis has the matchup edges we are looking for. The Tigers did lose their final three games and are without their coach so those two factors are the reason the number is so big but as long as they can execute, this is right there to win outright. The rushing game will be a deciding factor and Memphis has the advantage. The Tigers are outrushing opponents by 1.3 ypc (5.1-3.8) while NC State is outrushing opponents by only 0.3 ypc (4.7-4.4) and the EPA number variances are big. Memphis is No. 2 in EPA/Rushing and going up against the No. 89 ranked EPA/Rushing defense of NC State while the Wolfpack are No. 41 in EPA Rushing on offense but the Tigers counter with the No. 40 ranked EPA/Rushing in defense. We cannot trust any part of the Wolfpack defense which is No. 126 in overall EPA and they really struggled against bowl teams and were outgained 6.8 to 6.5 yppl. Here, we play against neutral field favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in non-conference games, off two consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) since 2016. 10* (207) Memphis Tigers

This is a play on the ARKANSAS ST. RED WOLVES for our Xbox Bowl Annihilator. This line has been all over the place early on as Arkansas St. was the favorite out of the gate and then it did a complete flip but has gone back to the Red Wolves laying a short number after it was announced Missouri St. head coach Ryan Beard was leaving for Coastal Carolina and will not be on the sidelines for this bowl game. This is another team that backed into a bowl game because of not enough eligible teams but the coaching aspect is a big deal. Missouri St. does possess a solid passing attack as it is No. 38 in EPA/Passing but against a weak schedule and bringing this down is the fact the Bears were sacked 44 times, the third most in the country. The aforementioned weak schedule is No. 123 in the nation and Missouri St. went just 2-4 against bowl teams while getting outgained 6.9 to 6.1 yppl. The coaching situation for Arkansas St. is much more stable with veteran Butch Jones on the sidelines and the Red Wolves do bring in some momentum. They started the season 1-4 without a FBS victory but closed 5-2 down the stretch to become bowl eligible and they won their last game to do it, a one point win over Appalachian St. They come in with the stronger defense and should blow up the Bears offensive line. 10* (302) Arkansas St. Red Wolves

This is a play on the LOUISIANA RAGIN’ CAJUNS for our Ventures Bowl Dominator. There will be no lack of motivation for either team as Louisiana has lost three straight bowl games, all under head coach Michael Desormeaux in all three of his seasons here, so they will be out to win. Delaware meanwhile was not even supposed to be here as it is in its first season at the FBS level and typically not eligible but because of a lack of eligible teams, the Blue Hens were awarded a trip. This is also a clean game where there are limited opt outs and transfer portal decisions so what we saw is what we will get. The Louisiana momentum can play a big role here with this being an early bowl game as the Cajuns started the season 2-6 and entered November needing to win out and they did just that. They got the four wins they needed, the first three of which they were underdogs and the fourth in overtime, and come in the more healthy team as they will have quarterback Lunch Winfield back at quarterback and this is big since the Cajuns finished second in the SBC in total offense and it is up-tempo with Winfield shouldering the balanced attack. Delaware quarterback Nick Minicucci can spin it and leads an offense that was No. 29 in EPA/Passing but a lot of that was due to them playing a schedule ranked No. 135. 10* (203) Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns

This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE ST. GAMECOCKS for our Salute to Veterans Bowl. Jacksonville St. is coming off a tough loss in the C-USA Championship to Kennesaw St. in the final minute but that is not going to produce a letdown as the fact the Gamecocks are even going to a bowl game is a huge success based on preseason expectations. They have the matchup edges here as they should be able to own the line of scrimmage and the running game will be the difference. Jacksonville St. comes in as one of the best rushing teams in the country as it is No. 17 in EPA/Rushing while averaging 5.7 ypc which is No. 21 and faces a Troy defense that is decent against the run but nothing good enough to be able to spot the Gamecocks. Especially when they just allowed 318 yards to James Madison in the SBC Championship. Overall on both sides, Jacksonville St. outrushes opponents by 1.6 ypc (5.7-4.1) while the Trojans are getting outrushed by 1.9 ypc (2.8-4.7). Additionally, Troy has been outgained overall in seven of its last eight games. Here, we play against neutral field teams with a money line of +135 to -155 after being outgained by 225 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 24-6 (80 percent) since 1992 and we can bank on the moneyline situation since we are on the underdog. 10* (200) Jacksonville St. Gamecocks

This is a play on the ARMY BLACK KNIGHTS for our Army/Navy Dominator. Navy snapped a two-game losing streak in this series with a convincing 31-13 win as it outgained Army 378-178 and it marked the third time in the last four years that the underdog has won outright. For the Midshipmen, they finished in a tie with Tulane and North Texas atop the American at 7-1 but missed out on the championship game because of tiebreakers. The season is far from done as they have this rivalry and a date with Cincinnati in the Liberty Bowl on January 2. It was a disappointing season for Army after coming off a 12-win season in 2024 but it lost a lot coming in so the Black Knights were not expected to have the same success and it started rough with a 1-3 start that included a season opening loss to Tarleton St. of the FCS but the Texans are the No. 5 ranked team in the FCS and Army went on to close out 5-2 with the two losses coming by eight points combined. We have another live dog this season. Here, we play on neutral field underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a win against a conference rival, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 42-13 ATS (76.4 percent) since 2021 with a scoring differential of +2.8 ppg. 10* (453) Army Black Knights

This is a play on the INDIANA HOOSIERS for our Big 10 Championship Winner. The top two teams in the CFP square off in a meaningless championship game as the loser of this game will not fall out of the top four in the CFP and while a conference championship is a prestigious honor, health is important. It does mean more for the Hoosiers as they have never won one let alone be in one and if not for anything else, they will want to showcase quarterback Fernando Mendoza as Heisman votes are not due until two days after this game. The same can be said for Ohio St. quarterback Julian Sayin but he has fallen into third with Diego Pavia moving ahead of him in the odds. Ohio St. is going to be the huge public play here as all the Buckeyes do is cover as since losing to Michigan last year, they have gone 14-1-1 ATS covering by over a touchdown per game on average so this is our contrarian move. It is the Buckeyes defense that gets all of the accolades and rightfully so as they are No. 4 in EPA and No. 9 in Success Rate but just No. 68 in Havoc. Meanwhile, Indiana is right there and arguably more consistent as the Hoosiers are No. 12 in EPA, No. 14 in Success Rate and No. 12 in Havoc while holding eight opponents to season lows in yardage. The offenses are extremely similar as well the EPA, Success Rate and Havok separated by 6, 1 and 4 spots with both teams sitting in the top 12 in all three categories. Here, we play on neutral field underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a win against a conference rival, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 36-11 ATS (76.6 percent) since 2021 with a scoring differential of +2.2 ppg. 10* (119) Indiana Hoosiers

This is a play on the GEORGIA BULLDOGS for our SEC Championship Winner. Georgia is one of six teams seeking revenge in championship weekend and its loss against Alabama by three points was the only one of the six games that was decided by one possession. The Bulldogs have won eight straight games since suffering that loss at home and only two of those were decided by one possession with both of those being on a neutral field including one in this same stadium last week against Georgia Tech. That will deter some from backing the Bulldogs as they foresee another tight one that could go either way. Additionally, history will decide some minds but the past is the past with different rosters as Georgia has lost 10 of 11 against Alabama since 2007 and is 0-4 against the Crimson Tide at Mercedes-Benz Stadium but seven of the 10 Alabama wins have been by only one possession. Bulldogs quarterback Gunner Stockton threw for just 130 yards in the loss to Alabama but he has improved immensely since then with the exception of the Charlotte game where he was not needed and the Georgia Tech game where the Bulldogs mainly ran the ball. He has thrown for 2,535 yards and 20 touchdowns, while adding 403 yards and eight scores on the ground yet the Bulldogs will likely try and pound it out as Alabama is not good against the run according to the metrics. Starting center Drew Bobo has been ruled out which is a blow but the Bulldogs will get two key weapons back on offense with wide receiver Talyn Taylor, who has been out since the first meeting against Alabama, and running back Chauncey Bowens, who has been out since the Texas game. 10* (115) Georgia Bulldogs

This is a play on the BYU COUGARS for our Big 12 Championship Winner. BYU and Texas Tech are in a rematch for the Big 12 Championship and we are expecting a much closer game this time around. We have to examine the first meeting one month ago and novice bettors will just look at that score and hammer the Red Raiders once again. BYU was getting 13 points at Texas Tech in the first meeting and is now getting the same amount on a neutral field so there is value right away. Sure, the Red Raiders won that first meeting 29-7 but that score does not tell the story as it was BYU that hurt themselves with a -3 turnover margin as the Cougars were outgained by only 113 yards. The defense allowed two touchdown drives and did hold the Red Raiders to five field goals, three of which were because of short fields where the drive totaled two yards. Texas Tech is known for its potent offense by the public but that is a misconception as it is No. 79 in EPA, No. 78 in Success Rate and No. 66 in Havok. It is the defense that has carried this team and BYU had to toss away its gameplan in that first meeting after falling behind early as the Cougars are No. 27 in EPA, No. 20 in Success Rate and No. 34 in Havok. On both sides, it is strength on strength so a clean game means a close game as BYU did not turn the ball over in seven of their games. With this game in Texas, many will think it will be a Texas Tech crowd by a significant amount but that will not be the case as the Cougar faithful travel well. BYU is 6-0 ATS in its last six away or neutral field games coming off a home win and 8-1 ATS in its last nine games against teams averaging 31 or more ppg. 10* (111) BYU Cougars

This is a play on the BOISE ST. BRONCOS for our MWC Championship Winner. It was a four-way tie for first place in the MWC and since not all four teams played one another, computers took over the tiebreaker procedure as it was broken by a composite average of metrics: Connelly SP+, ESPN SOR, KPI and SportSource rankings. UNLV and Boise St. had the best averages and the Broncos got the home field based on its head-to-head win. We used Boise St. in that first meeting as the Broncos won that game 56-31 at home and in a span of only seven weeks, the line goes from -13 in that first game to -4.5 for the MWC Championship. The Broncos finished with the worst record of the four top teams but were able to snag the home field and the good news is that quarterback Maddux Madsen will be back after missing three games but it will be the running game to be the difference as Boise St. ran for 294 yards and the Rebels come in No. 133 in Defensive Rushing EPA. Taking nothing away from what Dan Mullin did in his first season with UNLV, the Rebels were one of the luckiest teams in the country at No. 11 while playing a schedule ranked No. 115. The Rebels do have the better Offensive EPA but they have been fortunate who they have played on the road as their five opponents they defeated finished a combined 18-41. Here, we play on home teams in the second half of the season averaging between 5.6 and 6.2 yppl and after outgaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in two consecutive games going up against teams allowing 6.2 or more yppl. This situation is 24-4 ATS (85.7 percent) since 1992 with a scoring differential of +30.6 ppg. 10* (110) Boise St. Broncos

This is a play on the KENNESAW ST. OWLS for our C-USA Championship Winner. This game has seen a line flip as Jacksonville St. opened up as the slight favorite but Kennesaw St. was bet heavy out of the gate as the Owls were underdogs for less than 10 hours. The Gamecocks secured the home field for the C-USA Championship based on the head-to-head tiebreaker as they took the first meeting 35-26 three weeks ago and the sharp early money went the other way despite that. The reason being is that the first meeting was a skewed final score as it was Kennesaw St. that outgained Jacksonville St. by 128 yards but lost the turnover battle 4-0 and those four turnovers led to 14 points. The 579-yard output was a season high for Kennesaw St. and there is no reason for it to slow down and get the needed points as after averaging 19.4 ppg through their first five games, the Owls have averaged 36.0 ppg over their last seven games. Also, those four turnovers were easily the most in any game and the Owls had only nine other giveaways in their other 11 games combined. The four losses by Jacksonville St. came against teams that finished no better than 7-5 so the Gamecocks were not beaten by elite competition while the Owls other two losses were on the road at Indiana in a not surprising blowout and at Wake Forest by only one point. Here, we play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing 24 points or more in the first half of the last game going up against an opponent after scoring 37 points or more last game. This situation is 86-43 ATS (66.7 percent) since 1992 with a scoring differential of +4.0 ppg. 10* (103) Kennesaw St. Owls

This is a play on the LSU TIGERS for our CFB Contrarian Crusher Winner. It has been a lost season for LSU as a 49-25 loss to Texas A&M cost head coach Brian Kelly his job but the Tigers are still 7-4 following a pair of uninspiring wins against Arkansas and Western Kentucky and those lethargic efforts actually help us with the number. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier is out but Michael Van Buren, Jr. has looked good in relief and while this Sooners defense is a different beast, the value is still on our side. While the offense has struggled all season, the defense remains legit as they are No. 22 in EPA and No. 28 in Success Rate. The Oklahoma defense has carried this team as it is No. in EPA, Success Rate and Havok but like the Tigers, the offense has struggled as quarterback John Mateer is still not healthy. This is another game with a very low total which makes the double-digit underdog much more appealing. Here, we play on road teams in the second half of the season after going under the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games. This situation is 86-43 ATS (66.7 percent) since 2021. 10* (383) LSU Tigers

This is a play on the VANDERBILT COMMODORES for our CFB Rivalry Rout Winner. Vanderbilt and Tennessee meet for the 119th time with a lot on the line for both sides but more so for the Commodores. Vanderbilt is No. 14 in the latest CFP rankings and needs to win and get some help and it did not help that Utah won on Friday. It has been a magical season for the Commodores as they are 9-2 and have a chance to get to 10 wins for the first time in program history. They possess one of the best offenses in the nation as they are No. 2 in EPA and No. 3 in success Rate and will be facing the worst Tennessee defense in the last five years as the Volunteers come in No. 118 in EPA and No. 127 in Success Rate. Tennessee would like nothing more than to play spoiler against its hated rival and extend its six-game winning streak in this series. Here, we play on teams in the second half of the season averaging between 140 and 190 rushing ypg and after allowing 2.0 or less rushing ypc last game going up against teams allowing between 100 and 140 rushing ypg. This situation is 36-10 ATS (78.3 percent) since 2021. 10* (347) Vanderbilt Commodores

This is a play on the UTSA ROADRUNNERS for our Signature Enforcer Winner. It has been another disappointing season for UTSA as after finishing 4-4 in the American last year, the Roadrunners came in as contenders this year but are 4-3 as the road woes did them in again. All three of those losses were on the highway, 32 and 38 point losses at South Florida and North Texas respectively and an awful six-point loss at Temple. UTSA also opened its home schedule this season with a loss against Texas St. which snapped a 10-game home winning streak but they have won four straight since that defeat. Playing Army as an underdog is always enticing but the Black Knights are just 1-3 when catching points while covering only two of those. Army is 5-5 so it needs to win here or against Navy in two weeks to become bowl eligible and we actually like that future spot better than this one. Here, we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in conference games off an upset win by 14 or more points as a home underdog. This situation is 33-8 ATS (80.5 percent) since 1992. 10* (386) UTSA Roadrunners

This is a play on the TROY TROJANS for our CFB Ultimate Underdog Winner. A trip to the Sun Belt Conference championship game is on the line as Troy and Southern Mississippi will square off to face James Madison. Troy had a bad two-game stretch to open November as it lost to Arkansas St. and Old Dominion by a combined score of 56-10 but got right against Georgia St. in a 31-19 win last week to move to 5-2 in the conference. The Trojans defense has carried the load as they are No. 36 in EPA and have only had two bad performances. Southern Mississippi is stuck in that skid that Troy was able to get out of as it is currently on a two-game slide with losses against Texas St. and South Alabama. The defense has been below average all season but hit a big time low the last two games, allowing 83 points and that is good news for the Troy offense. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival going up against an opponent after a road game where both teams scored 31 points or more. This situation is 66-29 ATS (69.5 percent) since 1992. (69.5 percent) since 1992. 10* (399) Troy Trojans

This is a play on the KENNESAW ST. OWLS for our C-USA Game of the Year Winner. At the start of the season, it would have been no surprise that this could be a game for a chance to make it to the Conference USA Championship but just reversed. A win Saturday when the Owls travel to Liberty will put Kennesaw St. into the C-USA title game against either Western Kentucky or Jacksonville St. After two wins last season by a combined four points, the Owls are 8-3 including 6-1 in the conference and they come in off a win over Missouri St. which came after that once conference loss at Jacksonville St. Liberty has had the most disappointing season in the conference as it was the overwhelming favorite but it has been a disaster as the Flames opened 3-1 but have lost their last three games and will not even make a bowl game as they went 0-3 in FBS nonconference games. Here, we play on road teams averaging between 5.6 and 6.2 ppl and after gaining 525 or more total ypg over their last two games going up against teams allowing between 4.8 and 5.6 yppl. This situation is 26-3 ATS (89.7 percent) since 2016. 10* (435) Kennesaw St. Owls

This is a play on the TULSA GOLDEN HURRICANE for our CFB Supreme Annihilator Winner. The bad news for Tulsa is that it will miss a bowl game for the fourth straight season but it was a step in the right direction for the program under first year head coach Tre Lamb. The Golden Hurricane won seven games the previous two seasons under Kevin Wilson and they have a chance to win three straight games for the first time since the end of that 2021 season when it went bowling. The offense has picked it up of late as they have averaged 26.6 ppg over their last five games while averaging 28 ppg at home. UAB picked up a win over Memphis in the first game after head coach Trent Dilfer was fired but the Blazers are back to the same old Blazers as they have lost their last four games by an average of 21.3 ppg. The defense will not be able to get the job done here. Here, we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points averaging between 140 and 190 rushing ypg going up against teams allowing between 190 and 230 rushing ypg, in conference games. This situation is 25-4 ATS (86.2 percent) since 2021. 10* (390) Tulsa Golden Hurricane

This is a play on the EAST CAROLINA PIRATES for our CFB Afternoon Dominator Winner. It has been a good run for East Carolina but it has not been good enough as the top half of the American was too tough to overcome. The Pirates had won four straight games after opening with a tough seven-point loss at Tulane but lost last week at UTSA by 24 points which put an end to any shot at the AAC Championship game. This is obviously the last regular season game with a lot to play for as the Pirates are 7-4 and have a shot to win their most games since 2013 when they managed 10 victories and surpass the eight wins they have gotten twice since then. Florida Atlantic has lost two straight including a tough three-point loss against Connecticut last week which knocked the Owls out of bowl consideration. Last home game yes, but not much motivation. Here, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season averaging between 140 and 190 rushing ypg going up against teams allowing between 190 and 230, in conference games. This situation is 30-5 ATS (85.7 percent) since 2021. 10* (345) East Carolina Pirates

This is a play on the MICHIGAN WOLVERINES for our CFB Marquee Star Attraction Winner. The Big Game is big for both sides as Ohio St. needs to snap its current three-game losing streak against Michigan while the Wolverines not only want to keep the streak going but to keep their CFP hopes alive as they are currently ranked No. 15 so an upset here and in the Big Ten Championship gets them in. But we are working with a lot of points at home for a team that is full of confidence knowing what it can do to the Buckeyes. Michigan is 5-0 at home which includes a big win over Washington and the low total favors the underdog, especially one getting double digits. The Buckeyes have been atop the CFP since the jump and for good reason as they have yet to lose but have played a soft schedule. Yes they should win but the same has been said three of the last four years when they were favored. Here, we play against road teams in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams averaging 4.8 or more ypc, after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) since 2021. 10* (364) Michigan Wolverines

This is a play on the ARIZONA ST. SUN DEVILS for our CFB Black Friday Rivalry Smash. Arizona St. still has slim hope for a repeat Big 12 Championship appearance as it needs a win against Arizona and a BYU loss to UCF. In that case, the Sun Devils would own the tiebreaker against BYU (and Utah, in a three-team tie) due to their record against common conference opponents. The Sun Devils have won three straight games, all of those with Jeff Sims at quarterback after taking over for Sam Leavitt who is out for the season. Arizona is playing excellent as well as it has won four straight games after starting 1-3 in the Big 12 Conference but has no shot at the championship game so this is just about pride in the Duel in the Desert rivalry and especially from last season. Arizona will be out for revenge after a 49-7 loss against the Sun Devils in Tucson last season but we want no part of road revenge in a scenario of two teams with identical overall 8-3 records. Here, we play on home teams after three or more consecutive straight up wins going up against an opponent after four or more consecutive straight up wins. This situation is 89-45 ATS (66.4 percent) since 2016. 10* (326) Arizona St. Sun Devils

This is a play on the GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS for our CFB Black Friday Ultimate Underdog Georgia Tech got screwed out of a true home game in this series after these teams have alternated home fields in 118 meetings making this the first neutral site game in the history of the series. The Yellow Jackets are coming off a bad loss against Pittsburgh as they lost the turnover battle 2-0 and they eliminated them from title contention based on tiebreakers. The offense got handcuffed last week but they are still in the top ten in yppl and can give this Georgia defense problems. The Bulldogs are on their way to another CFP appearance as they have now won seven straight games to close out with a 7-1 record in the SEC. Georgia can still get to the SEC Championship with a win here but it will need Alabama to lose as it owns the tiebreaker over Mississippi should the Rebels defeat Mississippi St. in the Egg Bowl. They are overpriced as they have dropped three straight ATS in this series. Here, we play against neutral field favorites of 10.5 to 21 points averaging between 28 and 34 ppg going up against teams allowing between 21 and 28 ppg. This situation is 23-4 ATS (85.2 percent) since 1992. 10* (330) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

This is a play on the NEW MEXICO LOBOS for our CFB Black Friday Enforcer Winner. The Mountain West Conference is very much still up for grabs and both of these teams are right in the mix with two other teams also in contention. San Diego St. was picked near the bottom of the conference but has gone 6-1 and controls its destiny to go to the championship game. Behind a stout defense, the Aztecs are No. 3 in Adjusted EPA and they have allowed single digits in points in four of their last five games and seven times this season but only two against winning teams, California which just fired their coach and Boise St., who was without its starting quarterback. New Mexico is 5-2 in the conference as it has won five straight games following a 0-2 start against Boise St. and San Jose St. with its only other loss coming at Michigan by 17 points. The scenario for the Lobos is simple as they need a win and need a loss by Boise St. which plays a half hour later. Here, we play against road teams after two or more consecutive straight up wins going up against an opponent after five or more consecutive straight up wins. This situation is 81-40 ATS (66.9 percent) since 2016. 10* (332) New Mexico Lobos