Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-28-19 | Saints v. Falcons +7 | Top | 26-18 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
7* Saints/Falcons NFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta +7 The Key: The Atlanta Falcons will show up today against the New Orleans Saints. They hate the Saints more than any other team in the NFL. And they just beat New Orleans a few weeks back 26-9 on the road as 14-point dogs. Now the Falcons are at home catching 7 points. The Falcons are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 home meetings with the Saints with a spread of +7. They haven’t lost by more than 6 points to the Saints at home since 2007. Take Atlanta. |
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11-28-19 | Bills +7 v. Cowboys | 26-15 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
6* Bills/Cowboys Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Buffalo +7 The Key: The Buffalo Bills are 8-3 this season and have just one loss by more than 6 points. That means they’d be 10-1 ATS in all games with a line of +7 for them. I believe the Bills are one of the best teams in the NFL, but they don’t get the credit that other teams do. The Cowboys are in a tough spot after a physical, rainy game against the Patriots on Sunday in a late-afternoon game. Now they have to come back and play on a short week after facing the defending champion Patriots. I usually like fading teams after playing the Patriots because it’s always a letdown spot. And that’s the case here. The Bills are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. The Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a winning record. Take Buffalo. |
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11-25-19 | Ravens v. Rams OVER 47 | Top | 45-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
7* Ravens/Rams NFL *Total* Annihilator on OVER 47 The Key: I like the OVER quite a bit tonight. The Ravens are scoring 34.1 PPG this season and can take care of most of this OVER on their own. The Rams get both Robert Woods and Brandon Cooks back at receiver this week after both missed last week. The Rams are scary offensively when they have Woods, Cooks, Kupp and Gurley all healthy at the same time. Bets on the OVER on road teams with a total of 42.5 to 49 who are good teams that outscore opponents by 4 PPG or more when allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game are 72-31 over the last 10 years. Take the OVER. |
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11-24-19 | Bucs v. Falcons -3.5 | 35-22 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 27 m | Show | |
6* Bucs/Falcons NFC South *CA$H COW* on Atlanta -3.5 The Key: No team has been more impressive than the Falcons in the 2nd half of the season this year. They came out of their bye and promptly upset the Saints 26-9 as 14-point road dogs. They proved it was no fluke by following it up with a 29-3 win at Carolina as 4.5-point dogs. And now they are home only laying 3.5 points against a bad Tampa Bay team that can’t seem to get out of their own way. The Bucs are 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Jameis Winston cannot be trusted to not turn the ball over. The Bucs have committed 19 turnovers in their last 5 games overall, which is absolutely atrocious. Winston will likely continue giving the ball to the Falcons today, an improved Atlanta defense that has allowed just 12 points total the last 2 weeks combined. Take Atlanta. |
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11-24-19 | Steelers v. Bengals +6.5 | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 2 h 27 m | Show | |
6* Steelers/Bengals AFC North *CA$H COW* on Cincinnati +6.5 The Key: The Steelers are a mash unit offensively right now. I just don’t see them being able to score many points against the Bengals today considering they are without starting C Maurkice Pouncey, RB James Conner and WR JuJu Smith-Schuster. Those are arguably their 3 best players on offense. The Bengals showed some fight last week in Oakland and only lost by 7. They will certainly show some fight against a division rival in the Steelers this week, and there’s no doubt they want to end this losing streak against them. The Steelers only managed 7 points against the Browns last week and committed 4 turnovers. They’ll continue to struggle to move the football and score points this week. Take Cincinnati. |
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11-24-19 | Dolphins v. Browns -10.5 | Top | 24-41 | Win | 100 | 2 h 27 m | Show |
7* AFC Game of the Month on Cleveland Browns -10.5 The Key: The Browns played the toughest schedule in the entire NFL in the first half of the season. Now the schedule has eased up, and the Browns have taken advantage. After beating a good Bills team 19-16 at home, the Browns crushed the Steelers 21-7 last Thursday. Now the Browns have had extra time to get ready for the Dolphins and are primed for one of their best games of the season. The Dolphins have injuries all over their defense, especially in the secondary. The Browns should take advantage and have one of their best offensive outputs of the year. Cleveland has Kareem Hunt playing now and forming a dynamic 1-2 punch with Nick Chubb. The Dolphins gave up 37 points to a bad Bills offense last week. The Dolphins are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 after having won 2 of their last 3 games coming in. Miami is 1-8 ATS in road games off one or more consecutive ATS losses over the last 3 years. Take Cleveland. |
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11-21-19 | Colts +3.5 v. Texans | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
7* Colts/Texans AFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Indianapolis +3.5 The Key: The Colts will win the battle in the trenches on both sides of the football. That’s why I trust them more than the Texans. They have by far the better defense, and by far the better offensive line. The Colts rushed for 264 yards in their 33-13 win over the Jaguars last week. The Texans gave up 263 rushing yards in their 7-41 loss to the Ravens and managed just 232 total yards on offense. Deshaun Watson was sacked 7 times as his offensive line continues to struggle. And not having JJ Watt makes Houston’s defense one of the worst in the NFL. The Colts are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 against winning teams, while the Texans are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 against winning teams. The Colts are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Houston. Take Indianapolis. |
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11-18-19 | Chiefs v. Chargers OVER 52 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 2 m | Show |
7* Chiefs/Chargers MNF *Total* Annihilator on OVER 52 The Key: The altitude in Mexico City will take its toll on both defenses in the second half of this game. I look for both offenses to score at will after intermission. The Chiefs got Patrick Mahomes back last week and he showed no signs of rust as the Chiefs racked up 530 total yards including 433 passing in their 32-35 loss to the Titans. Clearly the offense was not the problem, but they still have a soft defense that yields 370 YPG. The Chargers have gotten healthier on offense with the returns of Hunter Henry and Melvin Gordon recently. They are more potent now and put up 26 points on the Packers and 24 on the Raiders and probably should have scored more on Oakland but committed 3 turnovers. Both meetings last year went OVER the total with 66 and 57 combined points in them. The Chiefs and Chargers should have no problem combining for 52-plus in their first meeting of 2019. The Chiefs are 6-0 OVER in road games after gaining 400 or more YPG in their last 3 games over the last 3 years. The Chiefs are 8-1 OVER against good passing teams that average 7 YPA or more over the last 2 years. The OVER is 9-1 in Chiefs last 10 games after gaining 350 or more yards in their last game. Take the OVER. |
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11-17-19 | Cardinals +10 v. 49ers | 26-36 | Push | 0 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
6* Cardinals/49ers NFC West *CA$H COW* on Arizona +10 The Key: The 49ers are a mash unit right now. They are without George Kittle and Emmanuel Sanders. We saw how they fell apart against Seattle on Monday after Sanders went out with injury. They are without RB Matt Breida, and fellow RB’s Tevin Coleman and Raheem Mostert are both questionable. Not to mention the 49ers have injuries all over their offensive line. I foresee Jimmy G struggling again without all his weapons. The Cardinals sped up their offense in their 25-28 loss to the 49ers a few weeks ago and had success. Look for them to go no huddle earlier in this game and find more success against the 49ers. The Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games after yielding 6.0 YPP or more in their previous game. Take Arizona. |
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11-17-19 | Broncos +10.5 v. Vikings | 23-27 | Win | 100 | 4 h 34 m | Show | |
6* NFL Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Denver Broncos +10.5 The Key: The Denver Broncos are in a good spot today coming off their bye week. The Vikings are in a bad spot coming off a huge win on Sunday Night Football over the Cowboys. They could let down here pretty easily. The Broncos are better than their 3-6 record. Only 2 of their losses have come by double-digits, and one was an 11-point loss. So they have only really been blown out once all season, and that was by the Chiefs. I don’t think Brandon Allen is much of a downgrade at all from Joe Flacco. And I like that he has had 2 weeks to run with the first-team offense and prepare to face Minnesota. But the reason the Broncos can keep this close is their defense. They are 4th in the NFL in total defense and 6th in scoring defense, yielding just 18.9 PPG and 309.7 YPG. They rank 9th in giving up just 4.0 YPC on the ground, so they will be able to slow down Dalvin Cook. The Broncos are 19-6 ATS in their last 25 games off bye week. Take Denver. |
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11-17-19 | Bills v. Dolphins +7 | Top | 37-20 | Loss | -113 | 4 h 34 m | Show |
7* AFC East Game of the Month on Miami Dolphins +7 The Key: The Dolphins outgained the Bills 381 to 305 in their first meeting this season just a few weeks ago. But the Dolphins lost that game 21-31 in a very misleading final. The Dolphins covered the spread in that game and they are now 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Now the Dolphins are getting 7 points in the rematch at home and will be out for revenge. The Bills are not as good as their record and have feasted on some bad teams this year. I can’t remember the last time they were laying a touchdown on the road. Nobody seems to want to buy into the Dolphins which is why they have gone 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games. And they’re not buying into them this week either. We’ll go contrarian and back the Dolphins. The Bills are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 road games against a team with a losing home record. Take Miami. |
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11-14-19 | Steelers v. Browns UNDER 42 | Top | 7-21 | Win | 100 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
7* Steelers/Browns NFL *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 42 The Key: The UNDER is 6-3 in all Steelers games this season. The Steelers have a terrible offense and a great defense, which is why they have been an UNDER team. The Browns have been terrible offensively as well scoring just 19 PPG on the year. The Steelers are 12-1 UNDER in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 years. The UNDER is 15-3 in Steelers last 18 road games, and 38-15 in their last 53 road games overall. The UNDER is 4-0 in Browns last 4 Thursday games. The UNDER is 17-7-1 in Browns last 25 home games. Take the UNDER. |
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11-11-19 | Seahawks v. 49ers -6 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 26 m | Show |
7* Seahawks/49ers NFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on San Francisco -6 The Key: No analysis Saturday thru Monday. On vacation. |
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11-10-19 | Vikings v. Cowboys -3 | 28-24 | Loss | -114 | 35 h 35 m | Show | |
6* Vikings/Cowboys NBC *BAILOUT* on Dallas -3 The Key: No analysis this weekend. On vacation. |
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11-10-19 | Ravens v. Bengals +10.5 | 49-13 | Loss | -108 | 27 h 16 m | Show | |
6* Ravens/Bengals AFC North *CA$H COW* on Cincinnati +10.5 The Key: No analysis this weekend. On vacation. |
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11-10-19 | Falcons +14 v. Saints | Top | 26-9 | Win | 100 | 27 h 16 m | Show |
7* NFC South Game of the Year on Atlanta Falcons +14 The Key: No analysis this weekend. On vacation. |
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11-07-19 | Chargers v. Raiders +1.5 | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
7* Chargers/Raiders AFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Oakland +1.5 The Key: The Raiders are hitting on all cylinders offensively with the balanced attack of Derek Carr’s precision passing and Josh Jacobs’ tough-nosed running. The Raiders have reached or exceeded 24 points in 5 straight games. The Chargers have scored 20 or fewer points in 6 of their last 8 games overall. Philip Rivers is showing his age, and the Chargers have been a one-dimensional passing team. I like backing home teams on Thursday nights, especially if they played at home the week before since there is no travel, which is the case for the Raiders after beating the Lions 31-24 in Oakland on Sunday. The Raiders know this is their last season in Oakland, and they are showing out for their home fans. The Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. Take Oakland. |
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11-04-19 | Cowboys v. Giants +7 | Top | 37-18 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
7* Cowboys/Giants NFC East *HEAVY HITTER* on New York +7 The Key: The Giants want to avenge their season opening loss to the hated Cowboys on the road. The Cowboys were 7-point home favorites in that game, and now they are 7-point road favorites in the rematch. That’s essentially a 6-point adjustment since the start of the season when you adjust for home-field advantage and I believe it’s too much. The Giants have been a lot more competitive since Daniel Jones took over at quarterback. They only have 2 losses by more than 6 points in Jones’ 6 starts this year and those came against the Vikings and Patriots. And they had a bunch of injuries in those 2 games, but are now as healthy as they have been at any point this season. The Giants will be able to stay within a touchdown of the Cowboys at home tonight and could pull off the upset. After all, the Cowboys lost outright to the Jets as 7-point favorites in their last road game. Take New York. |
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11-03-19 | Browns -4 v. Broncos | Top | 19-24 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
7* AFC Game of the Month on Cleveland Browns -4 The Key: The Browns have played one of the toughest schedules (4th) in the NFL this season. They have a great chance to make up some ground in the AFC North starting with a win Sunday at the lowly Denver Broncos. It’s a Broncos team that is 2-6 on the season and will now be without Joe Flacco for the foreseeable future. They are forced to start Brandon Allen at quarterback. I can’t see that going very well for Allen, especially since the Broncos have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, while the Browns have a solid pass rush. Take Cleveland. |
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11-03-19 | Bucs +5 v. Seahawks | 34-40 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 50 m | Show | |
6* Bucs/Seahawks NFC *CA$H COW* on Tampa Bay +5 The Key: The Tampa Bay Bucs have played one of the toughest schedules (2nd) in the NFL this year. The Seattle Seahawks have faced a much easier schedule (23rd) . I actually think the Bucs are the better team in this matchup despite the difference in records with the Bucs being 2-5 and the Seahawks being 6-2. The Seahawks are just 2-2 at home this year and their 2 wins came by a single point. They are very close to being 0-4 at home this year. The Seahawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games. Take Tampa Bay. |
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11-03-19 | Titans v. Panthers -3.5 | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
6* Titans/Panthers Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Carolina -3.5 The Key: We are getting the Panthers cheap Sunday at home because they are coming off a blowout road loss to the 49ers. That’s a 49ers team that is making a lot of teams look bad. Kyle Allen is still 5-1 as a starter in his career and he led the Panthers to 4 straight wins prior to that defeat. Look for the Panthers to bounce back at home today. The Titans come in getting too much respect from the books after winning 2 straight home games against the Chargers and Bucs. They easily could have lost both of those games and were fortunate to win both. Now Ryan Tannehill has to make his first road start of the year. Things won’t be easy for him as the Titans are banged up. They will be without C Ben Jones and TE Delanie Walker. They will also be without arguably their best defender in DT Jurrell Casey. Ron Rivera is 9-2 ATS off a blowout road loss by 14 points or more as the coach of the Panthers. Take Carolina. |
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10-31-19 | 49ers v. Cardinals OVER 43 | Top | 28-25 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
7* 49ers/Cardinals NFC Total of the Month on OVER 43 The Key: The 49ers will cover the majority of this total on their own. They are scoring 29.6 PPG on the year and will shred an Arizona defense that ranks 29th in giving up 27.9 PPG and 407 YPG. The Cardinals at least have a decent offense under Kliff Kingsbury and will get some points themselves. This has the makings of somewhere in the neighborhood of a 30-20 final. Bets on the OVER on road teams where the total is 42.5 to 49 off a home win by 10 points or more, undefeated on the season are 40-14 since 1983. Take the OVER. |
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10-28-19 | Dolphins +15 v. Steelers | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 65 h 30 m | Show |
7* Monday Night Football Game of the Year on Miami Dolphins +15 The Key: Ryan Fitzpatrick plays with a fire that is contagious. He nearly led the Dolphins from 14 points down to beat the Redskins but just came up short on a 2-point conversion. Then he nearly beat one of the best teams in the NFL on the road in the Bills last week, who were coming off their bye. Fitzpatrick is ready for the big Monday Night Football stage now. The Steelers aren’t good enough offensively to pull away from the Dolphins. They are 28th in total offense. I would argue the Dolphins are actually the better offensive team in this matchup with Fitzpatrick. This line has gotten out of hand with Miami catching more than 2 touchdowns. The Steelers are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games off a bye week. The Steelers are also 12-28 ATS in their last 40 games as a favorite of at least 10 points. Take Miami. |
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10-27-19 | Packers v. Chiefs OVER 47.5 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 42 h 35 m | Show |
7* NFL Total of the Year on Packers/Chiefs OVER 47.5 The Key: Oddsmakers have adjusted this total too much for Patrick Mahomes being out. Andy Reid has 10 days to get Matt Moore ready to run this offense after the Chiefs last played on Thursday. And I think the Chiefs will continue to be one of the best offensive teams in the NFL this week even with Moore at QB because the scheme is great and the weapons are some of the best in the NFL. I also expect Aaron Rodgers to put up a ton of points and continue playing at an MVP level. The Packers are putting up 30.6 PPG in their last 5 games overall. Now they’ll be up against a Chiefs defense that ranks 25th in yielding 377.4 YPG. And the Chiefs are likely to be without their 2 best pass rushers in Chris Jones and Frank Clark, as well as one of their top corners in Kendall Fuller. The Packers are 26th in total defense at 381 YPG allowed. They have recently allowed 563 yards to the Cowboys and 484 yards to the Raiders in 2 of their last 3 games coming in. The OVER is 19-7 in Packers last 26 road games. The OVER is 8-2 in Chiefs last 10 against a team with a winning record. The OVER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Take the OVER. |
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10-27-19 | Cardinals +10.5 v. Saints | 9-31 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 15 m | Show | |
6* Cardinals/Saints NFC *CA$H COW* on Arizona +10.5 The Key: The love for the New Orleans Saints is getting out of hand. They are 6-1 this season and have covered 5 straight coming in. The price is right to now go against them. I think the Saints are making a mistake likely bringing back Drew Brees this week. This line has gone to double-digits since that news came out. And they could still be without Alvin Kamara. The Cardinals are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games, yet they aren’t getting any credit for it. Patrick Peterson recently returned from a 6-game suspension and has given the defense a big boost. The Cardinals have stayed relatively healthy compared to most teams, too. And Kyler Murray is starting to thrive in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense as the Cardinals are scoring 29 PPG in their last 3 games. They have the firepower to hang with the Saints, and to get in the back door if it comes to it. The Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. The Saints are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games. Take Arizona. |
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10-27-19 | Jets +6.5 v. Jaguars | 15-29 | Loss | -103 | 34 h 15 m | Show | |
6* Jets/Jaguars AFC *CA$H COW* on New York +6.5 The Key: This line was Jaguars -4.5 before the Jets played the Patriots on Monday Night Football. After they lost 33-0, this line has been adjusted up to Jaguars -6.5. It’s too big of a move, and the price is right to pull the trigger on the Jets now. The Patriots are making almost every quarterback they face look bad, and Sam Darnold can attest to that as the Jets turned the ball over 6 times. The Jaguars aren’t the Patriots. They had lost 2 in a row before pulling away late thanks to a defensive touchdown to beat the winless Bengals 27-17. The fact that they were in a dog fight with the Bengals until the very end tells you all you need to know. The Jaguars can’t be favored by nearly a TD over a Jets team that is way better than the Bengals. Keep in mind the Jets beat the Cowboys outright as 7-point dogs the week before losing to the Patriots. The Jaguars are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 after allowing 75 or fewer rushing yards in their previous game. Jacksonville is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games off a win. Take New York. |
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10-24-19 | Redskins +17 v. Vikings | Top | 9-19 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
7* Redskins/Vikings NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington +17 The Key: The Redskins have two former Vikings on their team that are arguably their two biggest leaders, and they want to win this game for them. Case Keenum led the Vikings to a deep playoff run before the Vikings let him go the following season. And Adrian Peterson had a great career with the Vikings. You know both players want to beat their former team, and you know the Redskins will have their backs. That’s why I don’t question their motivation after a tough 1-6 start to the season. The Vikings are getting a lot of respect from the books now after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games. They won’t have Adam Thielen for this game, and they shouldn’t be laying 17 points. The Redskins haven’t lost by more than 8 points to the Vikings in any of their last 10 meetings. Take this 10-0 angle straight to the bank tonight. Take Washington. |
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10-21-19 | Patriots v. Jets +10 | Top | 33-0 | Loss | -114 | 81 h 56 m | Show |
7* AFC East Game of the Year on New York Jets +10 The Key: Sam Darnold was one of the best quarterback in the NFL down the stretch last year as he improved greatly throughout his rookie season. And he played well against Buffalo in the opener in a 16-17 loss before going down with a case of Mono. He finally returned last week following the Jets’ bye week and promptly led them to a 24-22 upset win over the Cowboys. Darnold threw for 338 yards and 2 touchdowns to lead the win. He finally got Jamison Crowder and Robbie Anderson involved, which are the team’s two best weapons. And we know what Le’Veon Bell is capable of. Darnold should open up the running game moving forward now that the Jets finally have a threat of the pass. The Patriots are 6-0, but they have played the league’s 32nd-ranked schedule as they have only beaten one team that is .500 or better. The Jets have played the 10th-toughest schedule this year with 4 of their 5 games against .500 or better teams. I love the price we are getting with the Jets catching double-digits at home here against the Patriots in a rematch from a 14-30 road loss with Luke Falk as their quarterback. Darnold moves the needle for this team and is worth probably close to 10 points against the spread over Falk. Bets on dogs of 3.5 to 10 points who are off a home win and revenging a same season loss are 37-13 ATS over the last 10 years. Take New York. |
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10-20-19 | Chargers v. Titans -2 | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 53 h 47 m | Show | |
6* Chargers/Titans AFC *CA$H COW* on Tennessee -2 The Key: The Tennessee Titans weren’t going anywhere with Marcus Mariota at quarterback. I think inserting Ryan Tannehill at QB this week will give the team a spark in the short term. He’s one of the best backup QB’s in the NFL and did well with what he had to work with when he was with the Miami Dolphins. The Titans have more weapons than the Dolphins did, and I think he can get this offense on track. The Chargers are broken at 2-4 on the season and have been hit harder by injuries than any other team in the NFL. They are playing without S Derwin James, S Adrian Phillips, WR Dontrell Inman, WR Travis Benjamin and C Mike Pouncey. They could also be without NT Brandon Mebane, DL Justin Jones, K Michael Badgley and DE Melvin Ingram, who are all questionable. They just haven’t been able to overcome these injuries, and they won’t this week either. The Titans are 26-13 ATS in their last 39 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less. The Titans are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 home games after scoring 9 points or less last game. The Chargers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Take Tennessee. |
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10-20-19 | Raiders +5.5 v. Packers | 24-42 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 42 m | Show | |
6* Raiders/Packers Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Oakland +5.5 The Key: The Raiders are in a great situation Sunday. They have 2 weeks to get ready for the Packers after having their bye last week. And the Packers are on a short week after a fortunate 23-22 win on Monday Night Football that was gifted to them by the refs. The Packers are fortunate to be 5-1 this year as they keep winning all their close games. Oakland continues to get no respect from oddsmakers. They have been an underdog in all 5 games, and they’ve gone 3-2. They upset Denver 24-16 as 3-point home dogs, upset the Colts 31-24 as 6-point road dogs, and upset Chicago 24-21 as 7-point road dogs. They are averaging 4.9 yards per carry on offense behind rookie RB Josh Jacobs and Derek Carr is quietly having a great season. Carr is completing 73.3% of his passes on the year. Jon Gruden is coming up with great game plans week after week and proving that he still has the magic touch as a play caller. The Packers give up 4.9 yards per carry, which is one of the worst marks in the NFL. So Jacobs should find plenty of success on the ground. The Raiders are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games after leading in their last 2 games by 10-plus points at halftime. Take Oakland. |
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10-20-19 | Cardinals v. Giants -3 | Top | 27-21 | Loss | -100 | 50 h 42 m | Show |
7* NFC Game of the Year on New York Giants -3 The Key: The New York Giants got extra time to prepare for the Cardinals after playing the Patriots last Thursday. They were very short-handed in that game against the Patriots and battled hard for 4 quarters before eventually relenting. Now the Giants get some key playmakers back this week in RB Saquon Barkley and TE Evan Engram, who are their two best players on offense. And they just recently got Golden Tate back from suspension, so they have ample weapons this week now for Daniel Jones, who is proving he belongs in the NFL. Arizona could easily be 0-6. Their 2 wins this season came by a combined 4 points. They have a terrible defense that gives up 28.5 PPG and 414 YPG, so the Giants should score at will on them. The Cardinals have a decent offense but are only scoring 22.3 PPG this year. I think the Giants win in a shootout and get more stops than Arizona does. Having the extra time to prepare for the dual-threat in Kyler Murray is a big advantage for New York’s defense. The Giants are 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games after playing a Thursday game. The Giants are 16-2 ATS in their last 18 after allowing 17 points or more in the first half of 2 straight games. Take New York. |
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10-17-19 | Chiefs v. Broncos +3.5 | Top | 30-6 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
7* Chiefs/Broncos AFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Denver +3.5 The Key: Teams are starting to beat the Chiefs by controlling the ball and the time of possession. They are doing so thanks to a banged up Chiefs defense that ranks 30th against the run. The Chiefs have yielded 192, 180, 186 and 203 rushing yards in their last 4 games, respectively. The Broncos have rushed for an average of 147 yards in winning each of their last 2 games over the Chargers and Titans. Denver hasn’t lost by more than 2 points in any of its 3 home games this year. This is clearly a game the Broncos can win outright. The Broncos are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Thursday games and have a big advantage here playing at home on a short week after playing at home against the Titans on Sunday. They don’t have to travel at all. The Chiefs won’t handle playing in the altitude on a short week here on the road very well, especially with all the injuries they are dealing with right now. Take Denver. |
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10-14-19 | Lions v. Packers -3.5 | Top | 22-23 | Loss | -105 | 68 h 4 m | Show |
7* Lions/Packers NFC North *HEAVY HITTER* on Green Bay -3.5 The Key: This line was 6.5 on the lookahead line last week. What has changed since then? Green Bay blew out Dallas 34-24, while Detroit had a bye week. Now this line has moved all the way down to 3.5. The price is now right to pull the trigger on the Packers at home here. No team in the NFL has a bigger home-field advantage than the Packers as their home field is probably worth 4 points. And I have the Packers favored over the Lions on a neutral field, so I have no choice but to lay this short number with them. I think the Lions are grossly overrated this year. They are giving up 406 YPG on defense, and Aaron Rodgers should be able to name his score offensively. The Packers have been great against the pass but poor against the run this year, but the Lions can’t exploit that as they average just 3.9 YPC this season. The Packers are 25-3 SU & 18-8-2 ATS in their last 28 home meetings with the Lions and winning by 10 PPG on average. Take Green Bay. |
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10-13-19 | Texans v. Chiefs -4 | 31-24 | Loss | -102 | 37 h 51 m | Show | |
6* Texans/Chiefs AFC *CA$H COW* on Kansas City -4 The Key: The price is right to back the Kansas City Chiefs this week. They are coming off two straight non-covers against Detroit and Indianapolis, including a shocking upset loss to the Colts last week. Now they are laying only 4 points when this line was expected to be upwards of 8 points as early as last week. I know that the Chiefs have some injury concerns, but Patrick Mahomes is going to play and they could get Tyreke Hill back this week as he has been practicing on a limited basis. I just think the Texans are getting too much respect for their 53-32 home win over the Falcons last week, an Atlanta team that looked like they quit in the second half. Don’t forget they had lost to the Panthers 10-16 and were fortunate to beat the Jaguars 13-12 in recent weeks. Bill O’Brian is 0-7 ATS against good offensive teams that score 29 PPG or more as the coach of the Texans. The Texans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a winning record. They can’t keep up with the Chiefs in this one. Take Kansas City. |
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10-13-19 | Seahawks v. Browns +2 | 32-28 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 51 m | Show | |
6* Sunday NFL *UPSET SPECIAL* on Cleveland Browns +2 The Key: I also like backing good teams after they get embarrassed. The Browns were thoroughly embarrassed on Monday Night Football on the road against a 49ers team that is looking more and more like one of the best teams in the NFL. Now they are back home and playing with a chip on their shoulder this week. And the Browns should get some key pieces back on defense as both starting CB’s in Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams actually practiced on a limited basis this week. The injury news isn’t as good for the Seahawks, who are expected to be without two starting offensive linemen in G D.J. Fluker and T Duane Brown. The Browns do have a good pass rush led by Myles Garrett, and I expect Russell Wilson to be running for his life. It’s also a letdown spot for the Seahawks off their huge 30-29 home win over the hated Rams last week. The Browns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss, and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games off an ATS loss. They are also 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games off a loss by more than 14 points. The home team is 3-0-2 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take Cleveland. |
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10-13-19 | Saints v. Jaguars -1 | Top | 13-6 | Loss | -120 | 37 h 51 m | Show |
7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Year on Jacksonville Jaguars -1 The Key: The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone 2-2 with Gardner Minshew at quarterback and he has kept them in every game. Minshew has thrown 9 touchdowns against only one interception this year and is completing 67% of his attempts. He has led a suddenly potent Jaguars offense to an average of 481 YPG the last 2 weeks. New Orleans has struggled offensively in its 2 road games this season. The Saints are only averaging 255 YPG on the highway this year. Teddy Bridgewater has been good at home, but not so good on the road. This will be a tough environment for him up against a good Jaguars defense. And life could be even more difficult if the Saints are without Alvin Kamara, who is listed as questionable after missing practice on Friday. Bets on favorites in a game involving two mediocre defensive teams that give up 23-27 PPG, after 2 straight games where 50 or more total points were scored are 35-11 ATS over the last 10 years. Take Jacksonville. |
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10-10-19 | Giants v. Patriots -16.5 | Top | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 31 h 9 m | Show |
7* Giants/Patriots NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on New England -16.5 The Key: The New England Patriots are 5-0 this season. They are outscoring their opponents by 24.2 PPG on the year so laying 16.5 points isn’t too much with them. They have the No. 1 scoring (6.8 PPG) and total (238 YPG) defense in the NFL this year. The Giants’ offense will be short-handed this week as they will for sure be without Barkley, Gallman and Shepard, and they could be without Engram as well. Bill Belichick owns rookie quarterbacks and he’ll be bringing the heat all game on Daniel Jones. Tom Brady and this New England offense are primed for a big game against the Giants No. 30 defense (409 YPG) Thursday night. The Patriots are 40-17-2 ATS in their last 59 home games. Take New England. |
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10-07-19 | Browns v. 49ers -3.5 | Top | 3-31 | Win | 100 | 70 h 41 m | Show |
7* Browns/49ers Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on San Francisco -3.5 The Key: The numbers show that the 49ers are one of the best teams in the league this year. They ranked Top 5 in total offense and Top 5 in total defense, and they are the only team in the NFL to accomplish that feat to this point. They are outgaining their opponents by 138 YPG on the year. Now they come off a bye week and will be ultra prepared to face the Browns. And their home fans will be excited to see them as they have played 2 of their first 3 games on the road. Things are looking up for Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco now that his team has finally remained relatively healthy. The Browns are off a big division win over rival Baltimore last week. I think now oddsmakers are giving them too much respect for that upset victory. The Browns are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games off a win by 10 points or more against a division opponent. Take San Francisco. |
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10-06-19 | Packers v. Cowboys -3 | 34-24 | Loss | -113 | 42 h 53 m | Show | |
6* Packers/Cowboys NFC *CA$H COW* on Dallas -3 The Key: The Cowboys got the humbling they needed after a 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS start with 3 straight blowout wins to start the season. They lost 10-12 at the Saints last week, and now they should be able to refocus with the Packers coming to town. This is a Packers team they hate and one that has caused them a lot of heartbreak over the last few seasons, especially in the playoffs. And now they get a shot at revenge here. They won’t have to face star WR Devante Adams, who has been ruled out with a toe injury. T Bryan Bulaga is questionable, and RB Jamal Williams is doubtful. This severely hampers a Packers offense that has struggled all season with just 21.2 PPG and 338 YPG. The Cowboys have an elite defense that yields only 14.0 PPG and 318 YPG. Offensively, the Cowboys are rushing for 145 YPG and should be able to shred a Packers defense that gave up gaping holes in the running game to the Eagles last week. The Packers are now allowing 142 RYPG and 5.0 YPC on the season. The Packers are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 road games. Take Dallas. |
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10-06-19 | Broncos +6.5 v. Chargers | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 42 h 33 m | Show | |
6* Broncos/Chargers AFC West *CA$H COW* on Denver +6.5 The Key: The price is right to back the Broncos this week. They are an 0-4 team hungry for their first win of the year. Three of their four losses came by one score, and it would have been all four if not for a missed field goal at Green Bay. That’s why getting 6.5 points here is a nice price. I know the Broncos won’t give up on their first-head head coach in Vic Fangio because players actually like him a lot. They’ll keep fighting, just as they have every week. Now they face a Chargers team that has more injury problems than probably any other team in the league. They are missing Derwin James, Russell Okung, Hunter Henry, Adrian Phillips, Melvin Ingram and Dontrelle Inman. They could be missing Travis Benjamin, Mike Williams, Virginia Green and Michael Badgley, who are all questionable. Their defense is a mess, especially in the secondary, and their offense is missing a ton of key weapons. Joe Flacco hasn’t been horrible as he is completing 66.2% of his passes this year and is primed for his best game of the season. Teams are 0-3 ATS this season after facing the Dolphins. After an easy win against the Dolphins 30-10 in which they pulled away late last week, the Chargers will get more of a fight from the Broncos than they bargained for Sunday. Bets on road teams who are being out-rushed by 40 or more YPG on the season, after being out-rushed by 100 YPG or more last game are 23-5 ATS over the last 5 years. Take Denver. |
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10-06-19 | Ravens v. Steelers +3.5 | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 38 h 29 m | Show |
7* AFC North Game of the Year on Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 The Key: The Pittsburgh Steelers catching points at home is a nice price to pull the trigger on them. Let alone the are catching more than a field goal. They have never been a home underdog of +3.5 or more to the Ravens in this rivalry. And this is a rivalry that is often decided by a field goal or less, having happened 13 of the last 25 times these teams have squared off. The Ravens have been atrocious defensively this year. They are yielding 396 YPG and 7.0 YPP, which ranks last in the NFL. Mason Rudolph finally got on track last week by leading the Steelers to 27 points in a blowout win over the Bengals. He could look even better this week against this soft Ravens defense. There’s no question the Steelers have the better defense, and I always like taking home underdogs when they have the better D. The underdog is 7-1-1 ATS in the last 9 matchups. The Ravens are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 against the AFC North. Take Pittsburgh. |
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10-03-19 | Rams v. Seahawks -115 | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
7* Rams/Seahawks NFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Seattle PK The Key: The Los Angeles Rams just gave up 55 points to the Tampa Bay Bucs Sunday. Their defense is gassed, and their offense may be even more tired after trying to come back from a 21-0 deficit. Now they have to play on a short week here and travel to Seattle Thursday night. The Seahawks will have plenty left in the tank after beating the Cardinals 27-10 on the road last week. The Seahawks want to avenge 2 losses to the Rams by a combined 7 points last year. I believe the Seahawks have the better team this year with all they added in the offseason compared to all the Rams lost. Los Angeles has a terrible offensive line and can’t get a consistent run game going. Jared Goff is under constant pressure, which helps explain why he had just 6 touchdowns and 6 interceptions through 4 games. Take Seattle. |
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09-30-19 | Bengals v. Steelers -3 | Top | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 34 h 16 m | Show |
7* Bengals/Steelers AFC North *HEAVY HITTER* on Pittsburgh -3 The Key: The Bengals have a banged up defense that is soft as butter. They have allowed an average of 494 YPG to a couple of mediocre offenses the last 2 weeks in the 49ers and Bills. The Steelers will get their ground game going against the Bengals, who allow 169 RYPG and 4.9 YPC. And the Steelers will slow down Andy Dalton and company, who clearly miss AJ Green at receiver. They also have several offensive linemen banged up, so the Steelers should be able to get after Dalton. Take Pittsburgh. |
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09-29-19 | Cowboys v. Saints +3 | Top | 10-12 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
7* Cowboys/Saints NFC *BAILOUT* on New Orleans +3 The Key: The Cowboys should not be favored on the road over the Saints in the dome Sunday night. The Cowboys have taken advantage of the easiest schedule in the NFL with games against the Giants, Redskins and Dolphins, who are a combined 1-8. The Saints have played one of the toughest schedule against the Texans, Rams and Seahawks, who are a combined 7-2. Two of those games were on the road. The Saints are 12-1 SU & 13-0 ATS in their last 13 home games against a team with a winning percentage of 80% or better on the season. Take New Orleans. |
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09-29-19 | Vikings v. Bears -112 | 6-16 | Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
6* Vikings/Bears NFC North *CA$H COW* on Chicago ML -112 The Key: I look at the Vikings and Bears as almost mirror images of one another. They both have mediocre offenses and great defenses. That’s why getting the Bears at a pick ‘em at home is a value play Sunday. The Bears won both meetings with the Vikings last year and terrorized Kirk Cousins in the process. They won 25-20 at home and held the Vikings to 268 total yards. They won 24-10 on the road and held the Vikings to just 164 total yards. The Bears had over 300 yards of offense in both wins, so they were able to figure out Minnesota’s defense. Chicago is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games against a good rushing team that averages 5.0 YPC or more. The Vikings are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a winning record. The Bears are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 home games against a team with a winning record. The Bears are 16-6-1 ATS in their last 23 home games. The Bears are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 against the NFC North. Take Chicago. |
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09-29-19 | Patriots v. Bills +7.5 | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 3 h 1 m | Show | |
6* Patriots/Bills AFC East *CA$H COW* on Buffalo +7.5 The Key: The Bills finally have a team that can handle the Patriots and end this series domination that New England has held over them for years. Josh Allen has improved by leaps and bounds this season, and he finally has some weapons. The Bills have averaged 391 YPG thus far. But what really gives them a chance to pull this upset is a defense that is just as good as last year after dominating last season. The Bills are only allowing 15.7 PPG and 300 YPG. The Patriots are really banged up on offense and have taken advantage of an easy schedule thus far against the Steelers, Dolphins and Jets, who are a combined 0-9. Bets against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points who average 27 or more PPG, after allowing 14 or less points in 2 straight games are 23-5 ATS over the last 10 years. Take Buffalo. |
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09-26-19 | Eagles +4.5 v. Packers | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
7* Eagles/Packers NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Philadelphia +4.5 The Key: The Philadelphia Eagles need this win more. They are 1-2 and have failed to cover the spread in all 3 games despite not once losing by more than 4 points. The Packers are not only 3-0 straight up but also 3-0 against the spread. I think oddsmakers are giving them too much respect tonight. The Eagles get some key players back from injury, while the Packers have lost some key players to injury since Sunday. Bets against favorites who are off a home win in the first month of the season are 78-39 ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take Philadelphia. |
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09-23-19 | Bears -3.5 v. Redskins | Top | 31-15 | Win | 100 | 102 h 50 m | Show |
7* Bears/Redskins NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Chicago -3.5 The Key: The Bears are head and shoulders the better team in this matchup with the Washington Redskins Monday Night. They should be more than 3.5-point favorites in this game. The Bears haven’t gotten their offense going yet, but they will here against a Redskins defense that has yielded 31.5 PPG and 455 YPG this season. And the Bears still have an elite defense after leading the league in basically every major defensive category last year. Chicago is giving up just 12 PPG and 292.5 YPG this year. Not to mention, the Redskins are giving up 6.8 YPP, while the Bears are yielding just 4.6 YPP. The Bears will shutdown this suspect Washington offense, and Mitchell Trubisky will finally make some plays for the Bears and lead them to a big road win to get to 2-1 on the season while dropping the Redskins to 0-3 in the process. Take Chicago. |
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09-22-19 | Dolphins +23 v. Cowboys | 6-31 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 37 m | Show | |
6* Sunday NFL Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Miami Dolphins +23 The Key: Only 5 teams in the last 30 years have been favored by more than 3 touchdowns in the NFL. This week there are 2 of those teams. Those 3 TD favorites have not done well, and I think the Dolphins are going to stay within the number here against the Cowboys. The Dolphins have played 2 of the best teams in the NFL both at home in the Ravens and Patriots. I actually think they will be a better road bet than a home bet this season. There’s so much negativity in Miami media right now that it can only do them good to get on the road and get away from it. I have a feeling the Cowboys aren’t going to show up with the focus they need to put Miami away by more than 3 touchdowns. They’ve also heard the negativity, and they are overvalued coming in off 2 straight division wins over the Giants and Redskins, 2 of the worst teams in the NFL. Jason Garrett is 18-33 ATS as a home favorite as the coach of the Cowboys. Garrett is 7-17 ATS in home games off a division game as the coach of Dallas. Bets against home favorites a good offensive team from last year averaging 5.4 YPP or more, after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game are 34-11 ATS over the last 10 years. Take Miami. |
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09-22-19 | Ravens +7 v. Chiefs | 28-33 | Win | 100 | 71 h 36 m | Show | |
6* Ravens/Chiefs AFC *CA$H COW* on Baltimore +7 The Key: It’s expected to be a sloppy field in Kansas City Sunday with rain in the forecast Friday, Saturday and Sunday. That favors the better running team, which is clearly the Ravens. They are averaging 223 rushing yards per game and 5.7 YPC thus far in 2019. The Ravens rushed for 198 yards on 39 carries against the Chiefs last year in their 24-27 loss at Arrowhead Stadium. They want revenge from that defeat. The Ravens are a much more dynamic offensive team this year as Lamar Jackson has already thrown 7 touchdown passes, and he is fitting the ball into tight windows when he needs to. New coordinator Greg Roman has experience with these dual-threat QB’s as he guided Colin Kaepernick nearly to a Super Bowl in San Francisco and Tyrod Taylor to the playoffs in Buffalo. Bets against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off 2 consecutive covers as a favorite against an opponent that’s off a home win are 34-10 ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take Baltimore. |
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09-22-19 | Jets +23 v. Patriots | Top | 14-30 | Win | 100 | 71 h 37 m | Show |
7* AFC Game of the Month on New York Jets +23 The Key: Only 5 teams in the last 30 years have been favored by more than 3 touchdowns in the NFL. This week there are 2 of those teams. Those 3 TD favorites have not done well, and I think the Jets are going to stay within the number here against the Patriots. The Patriots are the definition of overvalued right now after covering the spread by a combined 49.5 points in their first 2 games against the Steelers and Dolphins. This is a division game against the Jets, so there is familiarity. That favors the Jets to keep this game closer than expected. And I like what I saw from Luke Falk on Monday Night Football against the Browns. Falk was 20 of 25 passing for 198 yards in relief of an injured Trevor Siemian. Now that he’s preparing to be the starter all week he should be comfortable. Le’Veon Bell showed he’s still a workhorse with 68 rushing yards and 10 receptions for 61 yards in the loss. Bets against favorites who are off 2 straight wins by 21 points or more against a team that scored 3 points or less in the first half last game are 36-13 ATS since 1983. Take New York. |
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09-19-19 | Titans v. Jaguars +2 | Top | 7-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
7* Titans/Jaguars AFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Jacksonville +2 The Key: Gardner Minshew has been playing as well as any quarterback in the NFL thus far. He has completed 77.6% of his passes and is averaging 8.4 YPA this season. The Jaguars finally get a break on the schedule here with the Titans coming to town after facing the Chiefs at home and Texans on the road. This is a game they must win to stay in the playoff hunt as they cannot afford to fall to 0-3. Take Jacksonville. |
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09-16-19 | Browns v. Jets UNDER 45.5 | Top | 23-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
7* Browns/Jets AFC *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 45.5 The Key: The Jets are going to try to shorten this game by giving the ball to Le’Veon Bell as much as possible. They brought him in to be their workhorse, and now with Sam Darnold out, they will ride him. Trevor Siemian will be making short throws and just trying not to turn the ball over. They will have a conservative game plan, just as they did last week in their 16-17 home loss to the Bills that saw only 33 combined points. The Jets also have a nice advantage defensively as defensive coordinator Greg Williams held the same position with the Browns last year and knows Freddie Kitchens’ offense. The Browns have a terrible offensive line, and the Jets should be able to exploit it by bringing pressure all game long. All of these factors favor a low scoring game. Not to mention UNDERS are 12-3 this week as offenses just aren’t clicking this early in the season. Cleveland is 10-2 UNDER after going over the total in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. Bets on the UNDER on any team against the total off an upset loss as a favorite against an opponent that is off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite are 30-9 over the last 10 seasons. The UNDER is 9-1 in Browns last 10 games off a double-digit home loss. Take the UNDER. |
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09-15-19 | Eagles v. Falcons +2 | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 47 h 29 m | Show |
7* Eagles/Falcons NFC *BAILOUT* on Atlanta +2 The Key: The Atlanta Falcons did themselves in last week by committing 3 turnovers against the Vikings. They just couldn’t get out of their own way. The final stats outside the turnovers were actually in their favor. They had 345 total yards and held the Vikings to just 269 total yards. Now back home, look for the Falcons to play with a sense of urgency to avoid falling to 0-2. They will be much sharper, and you’ll see their offense live up to their potential, which is massive with all the weapons they have. The Eagles gave up 27 points and 398 total yards to a bad Redskins offense last week. Matt Ryan is 10-1 SU & 10-1 ATS in home openers since coming into the league. Take Atlanta. |
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09-15-19 | Cardinals +13 v. Ravens | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 40 h 8 m | Show | |
6* Cardinals/Ravens Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Arizona +13 The Key: This line was Baltimore -9.5 last week. But the betting public is now overreacting to the Ravens’ blowout of the league-worst Dolphins last week. So this line has moved up to the point where there’s definitely value on the Cardinals. I liked seeing what Kyler Murray could do in the 2nd half last week against the Lions in leading the Cardinals back from an 18-point deficit. They went hurry up and will do more of the same this week to utilize Murray’s strengths and try and tire out Baltimore’s defense. This Baltimore defense isn’t nearly as good as it was last year with all the studs they lost in free agency. And they are without 2 starting cornerbacks due to injury, which is a recipe for disaster against an Arizona offense that likes to spread out the opposition. Lamar Jackson won’t be nearly as good as he was in Week 1 as he is still limited as a passer, which will make it hard for the Ravens to win by margin. Take Arizona. |
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09-15-19 | Jaguars +9.5 v. Texans | 12-13 | Win | 100 | 40 h 8 m | Show | |
6* Jaguars/Texans AFC South *CA$H COW* on Jacksonville +9.5 The Key: This line was Texans -3 last week. Then Nick Foles got hurt and the Jaguars lost by 14 at home to the Chiefs. I can forgive them for that loss. But the betting public doesn’t seem to be forgiving them. And they aren’t seeming to give backup QB Gardner Minshew any credit for going 22 for 25 passing against the Chiefs for 275 yards. It was as good a performance as I’ve seen from a backup QB coming in for an injured starter in a long time. He’ll have plenty of success against a bad Houston defense that gave up over 500 yards to the Saints last week. The Jaguars will be much better defensively this week than they were against the Chiefs and should be able to get to Deshaun Watson, who was sacked more than any QB in the NFL last year and 6 times in Week 1. Take Jacksonville. |
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09-12-19 | Bucs v. Panthers -6.5 | Top | 20-14 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
7* Bucs/Panthers NFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Carolina -6.5 The Key: Jameis Winston has now lost 9 straight road starts as the quarterback of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Winston was awful in his first start under Bruce Arians, who was supposed to be his savior. He threw 3 interceptions and 2 of them were returned for touchdowns in their 17-31 home loss to the 49ers. Cam Newton has been great at home as they had won 10 straight home games with him under center before getting injured last year with his shoulder. He is back healthy this year and coming off a decent start against the Rams in a tough 27-30 loss. I trust Newton and the Panthers to bounce back at home tonight. The Panthers beat the Bucs 42-28 at home last year. They outgained the Bucs by 106 yards in that game and outgained them by 129 yards in a fluky losing effort in Tampa Bay last year. Ron Rivera is 11-3 ATS in home games after allowing 30 points or more as the coach of the Panthers. Take Carolina. |
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09-09-19 | Broncos v. Raiders +2.5 | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 59 h 28 m | Show |
7* Broncos/Raiders ESPN *BAILOUT* on Oakland +2.5 The Key: This line indicates that the Broncos would be roughly 5.5-point favorites on a neutral field. I’m not buying it, and I think these are two evenly matched teams this year. The Broncos have the better defense, but the Raiders clearly have the better offense, and it’s not really even close. Oakland should have beaten Denver in each of the last 3 meetings. They won at home 21-14 in 2017 and 27-14 in 2018, including an upset win as a home dog last year. And they only lost 19-20 in Denver as 5.5-point underdogs last year. They have had the Broncos’ number. Now the Raiders should be much improved in Year 2 under Gruden, while the Broncos are breaking in a new head coach in Vic Fangio. The Broncos are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 division games. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take Oakland. |
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09-08-19 | Steelers +6 v. Patriots | Top | 3-33 | Loss | -120 | 33 h 29 m | Show |
7* Steelers/Patriots NBC *BAILOUT* on Pittsburgh +6 The Key: The Pittsburgh Steelers have played the Patriots tough in their 2 meetings over the last 2 seasons. They only lost 24-27 in fluky fashion in 2017. They came back with a 17-10 home win over the Patriots last year. I think this game is likely to be decided by a field goal, so the price is right to pull the trigger on the Steelers. Their offense is loaded and their defense is as good as it has been in years. The Patriots always seem to start slow out of the gate. They won’t be a juggernaut offensively early as they try and figure out how to make due without Rob Gronkowski. Mike Tomlin is 30-19 ATS as a dog as the coach of the Steelers. Take Pittsburgh. |
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09-08-19 | Chiefs v. Jaguars UNDER 51 | 40-26 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 12 m | Show | |
6* Sunday NFL *Total* Annihilator on Chiefs/Jaguars UNDER 51 The Key: The Jaguars have one of the best defenses in the NFL. They gave up just 13.9 PPG at home last year and didn’t once allow more than 20 points at home. The Chiefs have an improved defense with all the personnel changes they made in the offseason. I don’t expect both offenses to be hitting on all cylinders in Week 1. The Chiefs beat the Jaguars 30-14 last year for 44 combined points. The UNDER is 5-0 in Jaguars last 5 home games. The UNDER is 7-1 in Jaguars last 8 games on grass. Take the UNDER. |
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09-08-19 | Titans v. Browns -5.5 | 43-13 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 11 m | Show | |
6* Titans/Browns AFC *CA$H COW* on Cleveland -5.5 The Key: The Cleveland Browns will have one of the best offenses in the NFL this season with Mayfield, Beckham, Landry, Chubb and Njoku leading the way. The Titans didn’t even score 20 PPG last year, and I don’t think they made any improvements offensively in the offseason. I think these defenses are a wash as they are both similarly talented. Cleveland’s offense will be the difference, plus their tremendous home-field advantage, which saw them go 5-2-1 at home last year. Take Cleveland. |
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09-05-19 | Packers v. Bears UNDER 46.5 | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
7* Packers/Bears NBC *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 46.5 The Key: The Bears will once again have one of the best defenses in the NFL. They didn’t lose much from a unit that gave up just 17.6 PPG last year. The Packers should be improved defensively this season as they finally spent some money in free agency and loaded up in the early rounds of the draft. But the Packers could struggle early offensively as they have put in a new system under Matt LeFleur. Aaron Rodgers didn’t play at all in the preseason and should be rusty. The Bears were improved offensively last year, but they are still no juggernaut on that side of the ball. They play to their strengths, which is their defense. The UNDER is 7-3 in Packers last 10 games overall. The UNDER is 5-0 in Bears last 5 games overall. Take the UNDER. |
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02-03-19 | Patriots -2.5 v. Rams | Top | 13-3 | Win | 100 | 99 h 42 m | Show |
7* Rams/Patriots Super Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on New England -2.5 The Key: Experience, experience, experience. The Patriots will be playing in their 9th Super Bowl in the past 19 seasons. It’s a remarkable feat and will never be matched. Playing in their 3rd straight Super Bowl, and extra hungry off the loss to the Eagles last year, the Patriots will beat the Rams thanks to their experience in these big games. I trust Tom Brady over Jared Goff in a big way. Brady threw for 505 yards and the Patriots didn’t punt once again the Eagles last year, and Brady has been dynamite in the playoffs once again this season. The Rams have been relying heavily on their running game to take the pressure off of Goff, but you can bet Belichick won’t allow the Rams to run all over them. They stopped the Chiefs and the Chargers on the ground, and that will be the game plan coming in again. Goff won’t be able to make enough plays to beat them. Take New England. |
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01-20-19 | Patriots v. Chiefs -3 | Top | 37-31 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
7* Patriots/Chiefs AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Kansas City -3 The Key: Home teams have won 10 straight AFC/NFL Championship Games over the past 5 seasons. The Patriots went just 3-5 on the road this year and only scored 21.6 PPG. They will be hard-pressed to keep up with Patrick Mahomes and company, who are scoring 35.1 PPG this year. Tom Brady hasn’t been as efficient since losing Josh Gordon to suspension. He averages 7.6/attempt with Gordon and 5.6/attempt without hime this year. This play falls into a system that has been great in the playoffs. Teams who scored 40 or more points in a win in their last game have gone 5-25-1 ATS in their next 31 playoff games, including 2-11-1 ATS in championship games. Take Kansas City. |
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01-13-19 | Chargers +4 v. Patriots | Top | 28-41 | Loss | -101 | 32 h 12 m | Show |
7* Chargers/Patriots AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles +4 The Key: You could make the argument that the Chargers are the best team in the NFL. They are the only team that ranks in the Top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. And they won 12 games this season, the same amount the No. 1 seed Kansas City Chiefs did. And they beat the Chiefs down the stretch. In fact, the Chargers are 9-1 SU in their 10 road games this season playing their best football away from home. They have beaten the Chiefs, Steelers, Ravens and Seahawks on the road this year. The Patriots went just 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS in their final 4 games despite every game being huge for them in trying to earn a first-round bye. They are beatable, especially since losing their top big play threat in Josh Gordon recently. Rob Gronkowski only has 3 TD receptions this season and is really becoming a non-factor as injuries have clearly caught up with him. The Patriots are beatable, and this is the best chance the Chargers have had to beat them in years. I expect them to capitalize. Dogs are 14-1 ATS in the last 15 playoff games. Take Los Angeles. |
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01-12-19 | Colts v. Chiefs UNDER 57 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
7* NFL Playoffs Total of the Year on Colts/Chiefs UNDER 57 The Key: It's expected to snow all day in Kansas City and the winds will be in the double-digit range. I'm shocked this total hasn't dropped yet, but it will on game day. Don't wait to get this bet in. The Colts have a better defense than they get credit for, and the Chiefs should put forth one of their best defensive performances of the season with two weeks to prepare. Once you see the conditions on the field Saturday you're going to feel very good about having the UNDER in your pocket. Take the UNDER. |
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01-06-19 | Chargers +3 v. Ravens | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 2 h 41 m | Show |
7* Chargers/Ravens AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles +3 The Key: The Chargers get the chance to face Lamar Jackson for a 2nd time, the only team in the NFL that gets to claim that. And facing a strange offense like the one the Ravens run for a 2nd time is a huge advantage. They actually held Jackson in check in the first meeting, but the offense was the problem as they were held to just 10 points. Of course, an INT in the end zone and a fumble by Antonio Gates when the Chargers were driving to take the lead didn’t help matters. They will make the adjustments, and continue their road success this season. The Chargers are 8-1 on the road this year with wins at Seattle, Kansas City and Pittsburgh. They have notoriously been a better road team than home team. That trend continues Sunday. Take Los Angeles. |
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01-05-19 | Seahawks v. Cowboys -130 | Top | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
7* Seahawks/Cowboys NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Dallas ML -130 The Key: The Dallas Cowboys have certainly enjoyed a nice home-field advantage this season. They are 7-1 SU & 5-2-1 ATS at home this year with their defense only allowing 18.5 PPG and 290.9 YPG. They are outgaining teams by 73 yards per game at home this year. The Seahawks only have 3 road wins this year, and two of them came on last second field goals at Arizona and at Carolina. They also won at Detroit, but they were coming off a bye that week. Obviously the Cardinals, Panthers and Lions weren’t very good this season, so they really don’t have a good road win this year. Dallas is good at stopping the run while Seattle is not good at stopping the run. Whoever wins the line is scrimmage will win this game. I expect that to be the Cowboys. Take Dallas. |
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12-30-18 | Colts -4.5 v. Titans | Top | 33-17 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
7* Colts/Titans AFC South Game of the Year on Indianapolis -4.5 The Key: Andrew Luck is 10-0 lifetime against the Tennessee Titans. Few of these games have even been close, including the 38-10 beat down the Colts laid on the Titans earlier this season. And I give the Titans almost zero chance of even being competitive in this game Sunday without Marcus Mariota. The Colts have gone 8-1 in their last 9 games overall and are on a mission to make the playoffs. They won’t be denied by the Titans tonight. Take Indianapolis. |
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12-30-18 | Browns +7 v. Ravens | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
6* Browns/Ravens AFC North *CA$H COW* on Cleveland +7 The Key: The Cleveland Browns are closing strong. They have gone 5-1 in their last 6 games overall, the same record as the Ravens in their last 6 games, yet the Browns are 7-point dogs here. And the Browns will treat this game as their Super Bowl as they can actually finish the season with a winning record with a victory, which would be a major accomplishment. Baltimore choked at home in a must-win situation against the Bengals in Week 17 last year. They’ll be hard-pressed to win this game, let alone win it by more than a touchdown or more to beat us. Take Cleveland. |
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12-30-18 | Jets +14 v. Patriots | 3-38 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 37 m | Show | |
6* Jets/Patriots AFC East *CA$H COW* on New York +14 The Key: The Jets have been very competitive here down the stretch. They realistically should be 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall, but since they are just 2-2-1 ATS, they are flying under the radar. The Jets want to avenge their 13-27 home loss to the Patriots in which they were going in for a score late but threw an INT in the end zone that allowed the Patriots to cover as 13-point favorites. They only lost 22-26 at Tennessee as 10.5-point dogs after leading most they way. They won 27-23 at Buffalo as 4.5-point dogs. They only lost 22-29 at home to Houston as 7-point dogs after blowing a lead with only four minutes left and giving up 10 unanswered points to close. And last week they blew a 15-point 4th quarter lead and lost to the Packers 38-44 (OT) as 3-point home dogs. They are playing well, especially since the return of Sam Darnold. The Patriots aren’t the same juggernauts they’ve been in years’ past. They are more vulnerable, going 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last 3 games. They used to dominate the month of December, but not any more. New York is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 road games when revenging a loss where they scored less than 14 points. The Jets are 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Take New York. |
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12-24-18 | Broncos v. Raiders +3 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
7* Broncos/Raiders AFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Oakland +3 The Key: There is a good chance this will be the final game at the Oakland Coliseum ever. The Raiders are looking for a place to play next year before moving to Vegas the following season. From quotes I’ve ready from players and coaches alike, the Raiders will be up for this game. And they’ve played well at home of late against two of the best teams in the NFL. They upset the Steelers are double-digit underdogs and also only lost by 7 to the Chiefs as 14-plus point dogs. The Broncos have lost 2 in a row and have officially been eliminated. They have injuries on offense and defense that have really hampered them the last two weeks and they aren’t any healthier now. The Raiders only lost 19-20 at Denver in their first meeting this season and will be looking to avenge that defeat. Denver is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 road games off 2 or more straight ATS losses. Take Oakland. |
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12-23-18 | Chiefs v. Seahawks +2.5 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
7* SEA/KC Sunday Night Game of the Year on Seattle +2.5 The Key: The Seahawks are tremendous as home underdogs. And after losing last week, they need a win to clinch a playoff spot here. And with the Chargers losing to the Ravens yesterday, the Chiefs can now relax knowing that they have a two-game lead on the Chargers for the division lead. They can clinch at home against Oakland next week if need be. The Seahawks will be the hungrier team given the situation. And the Chiefs just aren’t playing well since losing three of their top playmakers on offense in Kareem Hunt, Spencer Ware and Sammy Watkins. They have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, too, especially against the run. They give up 5.0 yards per carry this season, and the Seahawks lead the NFL in rushing at 154.9 yards per game, so this is a bad matchup for Kansas City’s defense. The Seahawks are 11-1-1 ATS since January of 2011 as a home underdog with 9 outright wins. Seattle is 11-0 SU & 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 games off a SU loss as a favorite. Russell Wilson is 5-1 ATS in his career as a home dog. Take Seattle. |
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12-23-18 | Steelers v. Saints UNDER 53 | 28-31 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 50 m | Show | |
6* NFL Total of the Week on Steelers/Saints UNDER 53 The Key: With the Saints only averaging 283 YPG on offense in their last 4 games, this total should not be this high. And with both teams having great defenses, this total shouldn’t be this high. Both of these teams are improved tremendously on defense this year. The Steelers are 9th in total defense and give up only 22.6 PPG and 333.5 YPG. The Saints are 11th in total defense and give up just 20.9 PPG and 341.6 YPG. Their defense has been playing as well as any other D in the league down the stretch. The Saints are yielding a mere 12.3 PPG in their last 6 games. The UNDER is 36-15 in Steelers last 51 road games, including 12-2 in all road games over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 5-0 in Saints last 5 games overall. Take the UNDER. |
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12-23-18 | Steelers +7 v. Saints | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 5 h 50 m | Show | |
6* PIT/NO Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Pittsburgh +7 The Key: The situation favors the Steelers here Sunday. The Ravens beat the Chargers yesterday and now if the Steelers don’t win, they’ll be trailing the Ravens in the AFC North. They would also need help to make a wild card. Basically, their season is on the line today, and they can’t afford to have a letdown after their big win over the Patriots last week. The Saints can relax knowing that even if they lose this game, they could still beat the Panthers next week at home and clinch the No. 1 seed. That’s because the Rams were upset as 13.5-point favorites by the Eagles last week. The Saints caught a big break there. And the Saints just aren’t playing well at all right now offensively as they putting up only 283 YPG in their last 4 games. The Steelers have the better offense and the better defense this season and shouldn’t be catching this many points given the situation. Take Pittsburgh. |
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12-22-18 | Ravens v. Chargers -3.5 | Top | 22-10 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
7* Ravens/Chargers AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles -3.5 The Key: The Chargers have a huge rest advantage here after playing last Thursday, while the Ravens played on Sunday and will be on a short week with this game being played on Saturday. The Ravens have to travel clearly across country as well. And the Chargers got some great news this week as that extra rest has allowed their two best playmakers on offense to get healthy and return to the lineup this week. Leading receiver Keenan Allen and leading rusher Melvin Gordon are both back. The Ravens won’t have enough firepower to match the Chargers offense. The Ravens are too predictable as they have run for a lot of yards lately, but not passed for many. And it’s worth noting that the 5 defenses Lamar Jackson has faced since taking over as starter all rank 24th or worse in total defense. So they have faced five bottom 10 defenses. The Chargers have the 8th-best defense in the NFL, and it has been even better here down the stretch since Joey Bosa returned. They held the high-powered Chiefs to just 294 total yards last week. And they have allowed 65 or fewer rushing yards in 3 of their last 4 games coming in. They will be able to stop the run and make life difficult on Jackson. The Chargers are 34-13 ATS after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games. Take Los Angeles. |
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12-17-18 | Saints v. Panthers +7 | Top | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
7* Saints/Panthers NFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Carolina +7 The Key: Despite losing 5 straight, the Panthers are still very much alive for the playoffs. They need to win out, and it starts with this game against the Saints at home Monday Night. They only trail the Vikings by a game in the wild card and hold the tiebreaker over the Eagles. The Panthers are 5-1 at home this year and scoring 30.8 PPG on their home turf. They have what it takes to hang with the Saints, whose offense has sputtered in recent weeks with just 262 YPG in their last 3 games. And the Panthers will certainly be revenge-minded after losing all 3 meetings with the Saints last year, including playoffs. Ron Rivera is 22-6 ATS off a road loss as the coach of the Panthers. Take Carolina. |
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12-16-18 | Eagles +14 v. Rams | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show | |
6* Eagles/Rams Sunday Night *BAILOUT* on Philadelphia +14 The Key: This line has gotten out of hand. Oddsmakers have adjusted too much for the Carson Wentz injury. It was obvious they didn’t need Wentz when they won the Super Bowl last year, and this line has jumped from 8 up to 13 and 14 in some places since it was announced that Wentz would be out. Nick Foles is clearly a capable backup after what he did in the Super Bowl run last year. And he’s out to prove to other teams that he can be their starter, and he’s a consummate pro wanting to help his teammates get back to the playoffs. After all, the Eagles are still only a half-game out of the wild card even with how poorly this season has gone thus far. The Rams have been overvalued for weeks. They are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Rams are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 home games against a team with a losing road record. The Eagles are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings with the Rams. Take Philadelphia. |
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12-16-18 | Patriots v. Steelers +3 | Top | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 5 h 5 m | Show |
7* Patriots/Steelers AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Pittsburgh +3 The Key: The Steelers need to right the ship quickly off 3 straight upset losses they had no business losing. They should have beaten the Broncos, Chargers and Raiders, but late miscues cost them in all 3 games. They are back home here today and ready to exorcize their demons against the Patriots. The Pats are only 3-4 on the road this season, so they are beatable. The Steelers are outscoring their opponents by 8.3 PPG at home this year behind an offense that puts up 34.5 PPG at home. Mike Tomlin is 11-3 ATS off 3 or more consecutive ATS losses as the coach of the Steelers. Take Pittsburgh. |
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12-16-18 | Titans v. Giants +2 | 17-0 | Loss | -113 | 2 h 40 m | Show | |
6* Sunday NFL *Upset Special* on New York Giants +2 The Key: The Giants are 4-1 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. And they blew a 16-point lead on the road against the Eagles in their only loss. This is a team playing with a lot of confidence right now and still believing they are alive for the playoffs. The Titans are only 2-5 on the road this season, where they’re scoring 16.4 PPG. They should not be favored in this matchup. Tennessee is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 road games following 2 or more straight up wins. Take New York. |
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12-15-18 | Texans v. Jets +7 | 29-22 | Push | 0 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
6* Texans/Jets AFC *CA$H COW* on New York +7 The Key: The Houston Texans are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers now after going 9-1 in their last 10 games overall. They lost outright at home to the Colts last week as 4-point favorites. Consider that in Houston’s previous 6 road games this season, they haven’t been favored by more than 3 points once. And now they’re laying a touchdown on the road to the Jets. This is a Jets team that has been impressive since Sam Darnold returned from injury. They led most the way at Tennessee two weeks ago and only lost 22-26 as 10-point dogs, easily covering the spread. Then last week they had a nice 27-23 road win at Buffalo as 4.5-point dogs. And they should be able to stay within 7 points of Houston with a legit chance to pull the upset this week. The Texans are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss. The Texans are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 December games. The Jets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games against a team with a winning road record. The dog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take New York. |
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12-13-18 | Chargers v. Chiefs UNDER 55 | Top | 29-28 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
7* Chargers/Chiefs AFC West *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 55 The Key: This will be the 2nd meeting between the Chargers and Chiefs this season. Both of these defenses have gotten a whole lot better since they met way back in Week 1. The Chargers are giving up just over 16 PPG in their last 9 games coming in. The Chiefs have held 7 of their last 10 opponents to 23 points or fewer. And I think we see a defensive battle in this rematch tonight. The Chiefs are missing their top two running backs and receiver Sammy Watkins, and Tyreke Hill is banged up. The Chargers are missing their top two running backs as well, two guys in Gordon and Ekeler who are huge safety valves for Philip Rivers out of the backfield. The UNDER is 10-1 in Chargers last 11 December games. The UNDER is 8-1 in Chargers last 9 against AFC West teams. The UNDER is 48-21-1 in Chiefs last 70 home games. Take the UNDER. |
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12-10-18 | Vikings +3.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 7-21 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
7* Vikings/Seahawks NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Minnesota +3.5 The Key: I strongly believe the Vikings are the better team in this matchup and we’re getting 3.5 points with them. This line should be closer to pick ‘em. The Vikings have outgained 6 of their last 8 opponents and they are a legit team with a legit defense and a solid offense. Sure, the Seahawks have on 3 in a row coming in, but they were outgained in 2 of those games by a combined 200 yards by the 49ers and Panthers. The Seahawks have now been outgained in 4 of their last 5 games coming in. The Vikings are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a loss. Seattle is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games off a blowout win by 21 points or more. Mike Zimmer is 50-27 ATS as the coach of the Vikings. Take Minnesota. |
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12-09-18 | Rams v. Bears +3 | 6-15 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
6* Rams/Bears Sunday Night *BAILOUT* on Chicago +3 The Key: The Chicago Bears have one of the best defenses in the NFL. The Rams are in for a rude awakening against Chicago here tonight. The Bears have forced more turnovers (30) than any team in the NFL. They will be ready for Jared Goff and company. Plus, they get Mitch Trubisky back at quarterback for this game after he missed the past two games. The Bears should be able to take away Todd Gurley as they give up just 86 rushing yards per game this season, and just 66 rushing yards per game at home. The Rams are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record. The Bears are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games, including 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a winning road record. Take Chicago. |
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12-09-18 | Steelers v. Raiders +10 | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show | |
6* AFC Game of the Day on Oakland Raiders +10 The Key: Big Ben just hasn’t been a quarterback that you can trust when on the road and laying points. And now his job got a whole lot more difficult with the injury to James Connor. Roethlisberger is 1-9 ATS as a double-digit road favorite lifetime. And in six career starts against Oakland, Big Ben has gone just 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS. The Raiders have covered the spread 2 of the last 3 weeks and only lost by 7 to the Chiefs last week at home. They can stay within 10 points of the Steelers, who lost at home to the Chiefs earlier this season. Take Oakland. |
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12-09-18 | Broncos v. 49ers +3.5 | Top | 14-20 | Win | 100 | 5 h 48 m | Show |
7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month on San Francisco 49ers +3.5 The Key: The Broncos are missing two key players this week that they had last week and during this run they’ve made. Leading receiver Emmanuel Sanders is out with a torn Achilles suffered in practice earlier this week. And top corner Chris Harris is out as well. The loss of Sanders hurts because the Broncos traded away Demaryius Thomas and were already thin at receiver. The 49ers have outgained their opponents by a total of 174 yards on the season. They are clearly better than a 2-10 team, and I think they get to taste victory here against the Broncos Sunday. The Broncos are 0-6 ATS vs. teams who force one or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons. They are losing by 12.3 PPG on average to these teams. Take San Francisco. |
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12-06-18 | Jaguars v. Titans UNDER 37.5 | Top | 9-30 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
7* Jaguars/Titans NFL *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 37.5 The Key: The Jaguars and Titans played in a 9-6 ugly defensive battle in their first meeting in Jacksonville that saw 15 combined points. I think we see another ugly defensive battle in the rematch, especially with the Jaguars going with Cody Kessler again at quarterback. His first start last week resulted in a 6-0 win over the Colts. The Jaguars have a great defense that ranks 3rd in the NFL in total defense at 315.6 YPG allowed. The Titans also have a great defense that ranks 9th in the NFL in total defense at 340.9 YPG allowed. And both teams have been terrible on offense. The Jaguars are 24th in total offense and the Titans are 28th. The Jaguars are 30th in scoring offense at 16.9 PPG, while the Titans are 28th at 18.4 PPG. I don’t think either team tops 20 points in this one. The UNDER is 6-1 in Titans last 7 vs. AFC South teams. The UNDER is 4-1 in Jaguars last 5 vs. division opponents. Take the UNDER. |
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12-03-18 | Redskins v. Eagles -6 | Top | 13-28 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
7* Redskins/Eagles NFC East *HEAVY HITTER* on Philadelphia -6 The Key: The Eagles are in true must-win mode here. They can’t lose this game because they’d be 5-7 and two games back of the 7-5 Cowboys with a head-to-head loss to them already, so essentially three games back. The Redskins could afford a loss and still recover. The Eagles can’t. And I like the momentum the Eagles have from coming from 19-3 down to beat the Giants last week, 25-22. Now they should be able to win by a touchdown or more against a banged-up Redskins team playing with a backup QB. The injuries have taken their toll on the Redskins. They are 1-3 in their last 4 games overall and their lone win against the Bucs was a fluke. The Bucs had 501 total yards but managed just 3 points. Figure that one out. Bets on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off a game where they committed non turnovers against an opponent that had a -3 turnover margin or worse last game are 25-6 ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take Philadelphia. |
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12-02-18 | Vikings v. Patriots OVER 48.5 | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -114 | 5 h 59 m | Show |
7* Vikings/Patriots NFL Total of the Week on OVER 48.5 The Key: Two of the better offenses in the NFL go at it this afternoon in New England. Both the Patriots and Vikings are loaded with weapons and great quarterback play. And both defenses are down a notch from year’s past as well. Minnesota is 14-2 OVER in its last 16 games off three straight division games. New England is 6-0 OVER in home games after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in its previous game. The OVER is 5-1 in Vikings last 6 road games. The OVER is 6-1 in Vikings last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. The OVER is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Take the OVER. |
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12-02-18 | Ravens v. Falcons -2.5 | 26-16 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 34 m | Show | |
6* NFL Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Atlanta Falcons -2.5 The Key: The Falcons come in on extra rest having played last Thursday. They had their chances to beat the Saints on the road but squandered several opportunities with 4 turnovers, including 3 deep in New Orleans territory. But they’re back home and rested this week and should be primed for a big performance against the Ravens. This is a Ravens team that is getting too much love for wins over the Bengals and Raiders in consecutive weeks at home. But now they are back on the road where they are 2-3 this season. The Ravens are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a win by more than 14 points. Take Atlanta. |
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12-02-18 | Broncos v. Bengals +4.5 | 24-10 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 34 m | Show | |
6* AFC Game of the Day on Cincinnati Bengals +4.5 The Key: The Bengals are rejuvenated now with Jeff Driskel replacing Andy Dalton at quarterback. They had a huge second half against the Browns last week with Driskel under center. And now he gets another weapon in his arsenal this week with the much-anticipated return of AJ Green. The Broncos are getting too much respect from the books after their improbable wins over the Chargers and Steelers as underdogs the last 2 weeks. Now they’re being asked to go on the road and win by a margin as 4.5-point favorites. This is not their preferred role. These are two 5-6 teams fighting to stay alive for the playoffs, and we’re getting the home team at an excellent price. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take Cincinnati. |
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11-29-18 | Saints v. Cowboys +8 | Top | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
7* Saints/Cowboys NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Dallas +8 The Key: The Saints are doing something that is rarely seen in the NFL. They come in 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games overall. But now the love for the Saints is getting to be too much as they’re being asked to lay more than a touchdown on the road here against the Cowboys. And this is a Cowboys team that has played much better since trading for Amari Cooper. They have won and covered 3 straight coming in. Their offense is good enough to hang with the Saints, and they have the 3rd-best scoring defense in the NFL giving up only 19.4 PPG. The Saints are not good on defense, and the Cowboys are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 against teams who give up 350 or more yards per game. Take Dallas. |
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11-26-18 | Titans v. Texans -4 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 6 h 0 m | Show |
7* Titans/Texans AFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston -4 The Key: The home team has won and covered 5 straight in this series between the Titans and Texans. The Texans have won each of their last 6 meetings with the Titans all by 6 points or more. And those 6 wins have come by an incredible 20 points per game. With the Texans looking to avenge their 17-20 loss at Tennessee in their first meeting this season, I think they’ll have no problem covering this 4-point spread at home tonight. And Marcus Mariota is far from 100% as he was questionable all week leading up to this game. Take Houston. |
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11-25-18 | Packers v. Vikings -3 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
7* Packers/Vikings Sunday Night Game of the Year on Minnesota -3 The Key: The Vikings are as healthy as they’ve been since Week 1. The Packers have several key players questionable or out for this game. And the Vikings are sure to be hungry off a loss to the Bears last week. The Packers have lost 3 of their last 4 coming in and just aren’t a very good team. Aaron Rodgers lacks weapons because of all the injuries, and the defense remains poor. The Packers have the biggest home/road split of any team in the NFL over the past decade. They are great at home but terrible on the road. The Packers are 0-5 SU & 1-3-1 ATS on the road this season, getting outscored by 8.2 PPG. No team has been as good as the Vikings at home over the past several season. Minnesota is 36-16-2 ATS in its last 54 home games. Mike Zimmer is 27-11 ATS in home games as the coach of Minnesota. This line of -3 seems very cheap Sunday night. Take Minnesota. |
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11-25-18 | Giants +5.5 v. Eagles | 22-25 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
6* Giants/Eagles NFC East *CA$H COW* on New York +5.5 The Key: Saquon Barkley guaranteed the Giants would win their final 8 games coming out of their bye. And don’t look now, but they’re 2-0 since that guarantee with a realistic path to win the NFC East if they keep winning. And now they face the Eagles, who are coming off back-to-back ugly losses to the Cowboys and Saints, including their 7-48 loss at New Orleans last week. The Eagles are marred by injuries to several of their best players. Their secondary is a mess, and even Eli Manning should be able to light it up. I also like that this is a revenge game for the Giants after their 13-34 home loss to the Eagles earlier this season. That was a very misleading final as the Giants actually outgained the Eagles 401 to 379 in that contest. The Giants are 40-21 ATS in their last 61 road games off two or more consecutive wins. Philadelphia is 0-10 ATS vs. teams who allow 6.0 or more yards per play over the last 3 years. Take New York. |
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11-25-18 | Seahawks v. Panthers -3 | 30-27 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
6* Seahawks/Panthers NFC *CA$H COW* on Carolina -3 The Key: The Carolina Panthers have had a huge home/road split this season. They are just 1-4 on the road, but 5-0 at home. And now they’re home here against the Seahawks Sunday. I think we get a big effort from the Panthers off 2 consecutive road losses. Players will have coach Ron Rivera’s back after his decision to go for a 2-point conversion to try and beat the Lions last week. Rivera is 22-4 ATS off a road loss as the Panthers’ coach, including 9-1 ATS off an upset road loss. Take Carolina. |
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11-22-18 | Falcons v. Saints OVER 60 | 17-31 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
6* Falcons/Saints NFC South *Total* Annihilator on OVER 60 The Key: The Falcons and Saints should both top 30 points in this game tonight. They combined for 80 points in the Saints’ 43-37 win over the Falcons in the Georgia Dome in their first meeting. And now this total has been set 20 points lower than that result. They’re back in a dome here in New Orleans. Take the OVER. |
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11-22-18 | Redskins +7 v. Cowboys | Top | 23-31 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
7* Redskins/Cowboys NFC East *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington +7 The Key: The Cowboys win two games on the road and all of a sudden they are laying 7 points at home to the Washington Redskins. They haven’t been favored by 7 points or more in any game this season. And the Cowboys are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite when playing on less than 6 days’ rest. Colt McCoy is one of the best backups in the league and has even guided the Redskins to a win in Dallas previously. Take Washington. |
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11-19-18 | Chiefs v. Rams OVER 62.5 | Top | 51-54 | Win | 100 | 116 h 4 m | Show |
7* Chiefs/Rams MNF Total of the Year on OVER 62.5 The Key: This game has been moved from Mexico City to Los Angeles, yet the total hasn’t moved one bit. If anything it has gone down. They were going to play on a terrible, sloppy field, and now they are going to play on a perfect field in perfect weather. It’s going to be great scoring conditions Monday night for two of the best offenses in the NFL. The Chiefs are putting up 35.3 PPG while the Rams are putting up 33.5 PPG. And I expect both teams to reach or exceed their season averages in this contest. It will be similar to the 45-35 Saints game the Rams played two weeks ago, and the 43-40 game the Chiefs played against the Patriots several weeks back. Both offenses will shine, and the defenses will do little to stop them. The OVER is 6-1 in Chiefs last 7 road games. The OVER is 21-10 in Rams last 31 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Take the OVER. |
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11-18-18 | Titans v. Colts -1 | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 85 h 50 m | Show | |
6* Titans/Colts AFC South *CA$H COW* on Indianapolis -1 The Key: Andrew Luck is 9-0 SU & 8-0-1 ATS in in his last 9 meetings with the Titans. He makes all the difference for this team. And the Colts are flying under the radar right now. They have won their last 3 games by a combined 49 points. Now they catch the Titans in a tough spot off their win over the Patriots last week. They are in line for a letdown here. Take Indianapolis. |