6* Panthers/Saints NFC South *CA$H COW* on Carolina +7.5

The Key: The Carolina Panthers had won 3 straight before laying an egg last week in a 16-23 home loss to the Chicago Bears.  It was a team not used to success, and they basically threw a pick-6 on their first drive and were chasing that 7 points the rest of the game.  They will had a chance to force OT at the end but came up short.  Look for them to come back with much better focus this week against a division rival in New Orleans.  And Teddy Bridgewater wants to prove to his former team that they made a mistake by going back to Drew Brees last season after Bridgewater had strung together several wins for them and looked impressive in doing so.  He might be the single-most underrated QB in the NFL today.  And Brees looks like a shell of his former self with terrible arm strength.  They lost to the Packers ar home and should have lost to the Chargers at home, but escaped with a 3-point victory.  They are beatable here in New Orleans, especially with the lack of fans due to the pandemic.  I think they are getting too much respect for home-field advantage here when there’s definitely not 7.5 points between these teams on a neutral.  Take Carolina.

7* Giants/Eagles NFC *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 43.5

The Key: The Giants are built for UNDERS right now.  They have a pitiful offense that is missing their two best players in Saquon Barkley and Sterling Shepard.  They are averaging just 16.8 PPG and 275 YPG on the season.  But their defense has been solid in yielding only 342 YPG.  The Eagles are struggling offensively because they are missing 9 starters due to injury.  They average just 329 YPG and give up 355 YPG.  Bets on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 42.5 to 49 versus division opponents, off a no-cover where they won straight up as a favorite are 25-5 over the last 10 years.  The Giants are 31-11 UNDER in their last 42 games off a win by 3 points or less.  The Eagles are 7-0 UNDER as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 years.  Take the UNDER.

7* Chiefs/Bills MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo +5

The Key: This was only going to be about a 1-point spread before the Bills played the Titans on Tuesday.  Well, the Bills lost that game 16-42, but it was a misleading final score. The Bills actually outgained the Titans by 36 yards in that game but gave it away with turnovers.  Now the Bills come back as 5-point home dogs to the Chiefs, which is a 4-point adjustment.  The price is right to back the Bills now.  The Chiefs were exposed last week in their 32-40 loss to the Raiders, and there was nothing fluky about it.  The Raiders gashed the Chiefs for 490 yards and outgained them by 77 yards.  Speaking of gashed, the Chiefs are giving up 158 rushing yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry.  The Bills can run the football and keep Patrick Mahomes off the field, which is a great game plan.  And Buffalo can match Kansas City score for score offensively as these offenses have put up similar numbers.  The Bills are averaging 27.8 PPG and 401.8 YPG while the Chiefs are putting up 29.8 PPG and 407.2 YPG.  This is a much closer game than this 5-point spread would indicate, and you have to give the Bills some home-field advantage here too.  Take Buffalo.

6* Packers/Bucs NFC *CA$H COW* on Tampa Bay +1

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the Tampa Bay Bucs as home underdogs.  Bruce Arians is 9-1 ATS as a home dog of 3 points or less as a head coach in this league.  And it’s rare you get the chance to back Tom Brady as a home dog.  I like that combination.  The Packers don’t get the normal benefit of a bye week because the Bucs also had a makeshift bye of their own after playing the Bears last Thursday.  Aaron Rodgers is having an MVP season, but he’ll be up against an underrated Tampa Bay defense that only yields 298.2 YPG and 5.2 YPP this year.  To compare, the Packers give up 6.4 YPP on defense.  And I think both offenses will have success, but it’s the Tampa Bay defense that I trust to get the critical stops to win this game.  Take Tampa Bay.

7* AFC South Game of the Year on Houston Texans +3.5

The Key: This is a terrible situation for the Tennessee Titans.  They are coming off a huge win Tuesday against the Buffalo Bills.  It was a misleading 42-16 final because the Bills actually outgained them by 36 yards but gave the game away with turnovers.  And now the Titans are working on an extra short week having to get ready for another game Sunday.  They won’t be ready, and keep in mind they were fortunate to win their first 3 games of the season against some bad teams.  They beat the Jaguars (33-30), Vikings (31-30) and Broncos (16-14) by a combined 6 points.  Those 3 teams are a combined 3-11 on the season.  The Texans were rejuvenated with the firing of head coach Bill O’Brien last week.  Romeo Crennel took over and led them to a 30-14 win over the Jaguars.  Their offense racked up nearly 500 total yards in the win.  That Houston offense should be able to do whatever it wants to against a Titans defense giving up 409.3 YPG and 6.3 YPP on the season.  And the Texans need this game more if they want to stay alive in the division with the Titans being 4-0 and the Texans being just 1-4.  The Texans have played the much tougher schedule though with their 4 losses coming to the Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers and Vikings.  They are undervalued right now because of that tough schedule.  Take Houston.

6* Lions/Jaguars Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Detroit -3

The Key: The Detroit Lions’ 3 losses this season have come to the Bears, Packers and Saints who are a combined 11-3 on the season.  They also went on the road and beat the 3-2 Cardinals.  No team has played a tougher schedule than them.  And now they finally get a break and a bye week to get ready for the Jaguars.  This is a Jacksonville team coming off 4 straight losses by an average of 11.3 PPG.  The Lions are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games off a bye.  Take Detroit.

7* Bills/Titans AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo -3

The Key: The Buffalo Bills are better on both sides of the football in this matchup with the Tennessee Titans.  While the Bills have pretty much dominated and led almost the entire way during their 4-0 start, the Titans have not looked near as dominant in their 3-0 start.  Their 3 wins came against teams who are a combined 3-11 and they came by a combined 6 points with a 2-point win over Denver, a 3-point win over Jacksonville and a 1-point win over Minnesota.  The Titans gave up an average of 422.3 YPG against those 3 offenses and now have to face a dangerous Bills offense that averages 30.8 PPG and 409.8 YPG this year.  The Titans have been shredded on the ground for 166 RYPG and 5.8 YPC.  The Bills should be able to move the football at will on them either on the ground or through the air.  Bets against dogs of 3.5 to 10 points who allowed 30 points or more in 2 straight games against a team that scored 17 points or more in the first half of 2 consecutive games are 26-6 ATS since 1983.  The Bills are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as favorites.  Buffalo is 8-2-2 ATS in its last 12 road games.  Tennessee is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 home games.  Take Buffalo.

7* Chargers/Saints MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles +8

The Key: Los Angeles rookie QB Justin Herbert has been awesome in his 3 starts this season.  He is completing 72% of his passes and averaging 310.3 passing yards per game.  With him under center, the Chargers have a good chance of going on the road and knocking off the New Orleans Saints this week, who have a ton of key injuries on both sides of the ball.  And the Chargers have a pretty underrated defense with Bosa and Ingram leading the way as pass rushers.  Herbert and that defense have been keeping Los Angeles in games this season as all 4 of their games have been decided by 7 points or fewer.  The Chargers are 33-15-4 ATS in their last 52 games as road underdogs.  The Saints are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as home favorites.  Take Los Angeles.

6* Dolphins/49ers Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Miami +9

The Key: The Miami Dolphins haven’t lost by more than 10 points this season despite being 1-3.  Those 3 losses came to the Bills, Seahawks and Patriots who have combined to go 10-2.  They were in every game, and they will certainly be in this game against the 49ers, who are worse than all 3 of those teams due to all their injuries.  And the 49ers have been terrible as home favorites over the years.  They are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite of -6.5 or more, which includes outright losses to both the Cardinals and Eagles this season.  Their only 2 wins this year came against the Giants and Jets, and I think most can agree those are the two worst teams in the NFL.  Take Miami.

7* AFC West Game of the Year on Las Vegas Raiders +13

The Key: The Raiders have looked very good against a very tough schedule this year.  They are 2-2 but could easily be 4-0.  They beat the Panthers on the road in Week 1, upset the Saints at home in Week 2, and then lost to the Patriots and Bills.  But they had their chances to win both of those games as they were only outgained by 31 yards by the Patriots and outgained the Bills by 46 yards.  I liked the fire I saw from QB Derek Carr after that loss to the Bills saying he’s tired of losing, and this team is too good for this.  Look for the Raiders to give the Chiefs a run for their money this week.  This is a tough scheduling spot for the Chiefs.  They are coming off 2 straight huge Monday Night Football wins over the Ravens and Patriots.  They were outgained by 34 yards by the Patriots last week, who were playing without Cam Newton too.  And now they are on a short week here.  You’re paying a tax to back the Chiefs now, and the tax is too steep this week.  Take Las Vegas.

6* LA/Washington NFC *CA$H COW* on Washington +7.5 

The Key: The Washington Football Team has new life with Kyle Allen replacing Dwayne Haskins.  Haskins was the worst starting quarterback in the NFL and turned the ball over too many times for Washington to have any chance of winning games.  The only game he didn’t turn it over they upset the Eagles.  Allen can only be an upgrade.  The Rams have one of the toughest early travel schedules that I’ve ever seen.  They have to go out East for the 3rd time in 4 weeks here after previously traveling to Philadelphia and Buffalo.  This is an early start time and a 10 AM body clock game for the Rams, which is always tough for West Coast teams.  Especially when having to do it 3 times in 4 weeks.  And the Rams showed signs of fatigue last week as they had to fight tooth and nail to beat the Giants 17-9 as 13-point favorites.  Their offense only had 240 total yards in that win.  And now they are up against another underrated defense here in Washington that should have Chase Young back healthy this week.  The Rams are 2-13 ATS after a home game in which they won SU but did not cover the spread.  Take Washington. 

7* Bucs/Bears NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Tampa Bay -3.5

The Key: The Tampa Bay Bucs are averaging 32.3 PPG in their last 3 games, all victories by 7 points or more.  And they have a huge edge on offense here over the hapless Bears, who can’t decide whether Nick Foles or Mitch Trubisky is the man to lead their offense.  They have a good defense, but their offense just isn’t good.  They only managed 3 points for the first 58 minutes against the Colts last week in Foles’ first start with the team.  And it’s not going to get much easier against this improved, fast Tampa Bay defense tonight.  The Bears are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games against a team with a winning record.  Their 3 wins this year came against the Lions, Giants and Falcons, three teams that are a combined 1-11.  Take Tampa Bay.

7* Falcons/Packers MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta +7

The Key: The Atlanta Falcons are desperate for a win after opening 0-3 this year.  I like backing desperate teams.  They should be 2-1 as they blew a 15-point lead against the Cowboys and a 16-point lead against the Bears both in the 4th quarter.  But since they are 0-3 we are getting a good price on them.  The Packers are 3-0 and need to be faded this week, especially since Aaron Rodgers may not have Devante Adams and Allen Lazard.  Lazard is for sure out, while Adams sat out last week and is questionable with a hamstring. The Falcons are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as underdogs.  The Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.  This is the role they are good in.  Take Atlanta.

6* Saints/Lions NFC *CA$H COW* on Detroit +4.5

The Key: Drew Brees is just a shell of his former self.  He has lost a ton of arm strength and that has been on display this season.  They were fortunate to beat the Bucs in Week 1, then their defense got gashed in 24-34 and 30-37 losses to the Raiders and Packers.  They have impact injuries on both offense and defense.  Matthew Stafford is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the NFL.  He guided the Lions to a gutsy 26-23 win at Arizona last week.  He did everything he could to avoid a 23-6 collapse against the Bears in Week 1 by driving the Lions down and throwing a perfect pass that was dropped in the end zone that would have been a game-winner.  And Stafford just got his favorite receiver in Kenny Golloday back from a 2-game absence last week against the Cardinals, so he now has his full compliment of weapons.  Take Detroit.

6* Sunday NFL *Total* Annihilator on Seahawks/Dolphins OVER 54

The Key: The Seahawks are 3-0 to the OVER in 2020 with combined scores of 63, 65 and 69 points.  This one should see 60-plus too.  Russell Wilson has been the MVP of the league thus far in leading the Seahawks to 37 PPG.  They have really opened up their passing game this year and let Wilson shine finally with 2 of the best weapons in the NFL in Metcalf and Lockett.  But Seattle gives up 28.7 PPG and 497.3 YPG defensively.  They have injuries all over their defense and are a far cry from the legion of boom D they had back in the day.  Ryan Fitzpatrick will keep the Dolphins in this game and match Wilson score for score.  He completed 90% of his passes against the Jaguars last week.  He put up 28 points on the Bills and 31 points on the Jaguars the last 2 weeks, and he should reach or exceed both of those numbers again here.  Seattle is 6-0 OVER when eh total is 49.5 or higher over the last 3 years.  Miami is 8-1 OVER as a home dog of 7 points or less over the last 3 years.  Miami is 12-0 OVER in its last 12 against good rush defenses that give up 70 or fewer rushing yards per game.  Take the OVER.

7* Broncos/Jets AFC *Total* Annihilator on OVER 40.5

The Key: Both the New York Jets and Denver Broncos have been up against some very good defenses this season.  The Jets have faced the Bills, 49ers and Colts while the Broncos have faced the Titans, Steelers and Bucs.  This is the chance for both offenses to open things up against the worst defenses that they will have faced yet.  The Broncos give up 23.3 PPG and 380 YPG and have injuries all over their defense, most notably to Miller, Casey and Bouye.  The Jets give up 31.3 PPG and 372 YPG and have just been gashed defensively.  This is a very low total for today’s NFL and there’s definitely some value with the OVER.  Take the OVER.

7* Chiefs/Ravens MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Baltimore -3.5

The Key: The Baltimore Ravens have blown the doors off their first 2 opponents with a 38-6 win over Cleveland and a 33-16 win at Houston.  The Kansas City Chiefs also beat the Texans 34-20, but they only outgained them by 9 yards in that contest.  And the Chiefs were outgained by 65 yards last week in a fortunate 23-20 (OT) win over the Chargers in which they gave up 479 total yards to rookie QB Justin Herbert and company.  The Ravens have lost their 2 matchups with the Chiefs by a combined 8 points over the last 2 seasons. It’s revenge time here as the Ravens prove they are the best team in the AFC Monday night.  Take Baltimore.

6* Lions/Cardinals NFC *CA$H COW* on Detroit +6

The Key: Teams failing to cover by 5 PPG or more who are also 0-2 ATS have gone 57-28-1 ATS in Week 3.  Teams like the Lions are undervalued after a poor start to the season.  They blew a 23-6 lead against the Bears in Week 1 and a 14-3 lead against the Packers in Week 2.  They aren’t as bad as their 0-2 record, and the Cardinals aren’t as good as their 2-0 record, beating a poor Washington team and taking advantage of a banged-up 49ers team.  Bets on road dogs or PK who allowed 335 or more total yards per game last season, after allowing 450 yards or more last game are 24-4 ATS since 1983.  The Lions are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 road games off a loss by 14 points or more.  Take Detroit.

7* Cowboys/Seahawks NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Dallas +5

The Key: Seattle’s defense is way too poor to trust the Seahawks to be laying 5 points to the Dallas Cowboys, who have one of the best offenses in the NFL.  That was on display last week when the Cowboys racked up 40 points and 570 total yards on the Falcons.  The Seahawks give up 27.5 PPG and 485 YPG this season.  The Cowboys are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 road games after trailing at halftime by 14 points or more last game.  Take Dallas.

6* Sunday NFL *UPSET SPECIAL* on Minnesota Vikings +3

The Key: Teams failing to cover by 5 PPG or more who are also 0-2 ATS have gone 57-28-1 ATS in Week 3.  Teams like the Vikings are undervalued after a poor start to the season.  They go from being favored by nearly a FG at home against the Packers in their opener to now 3-point dogs to the Titans in Week 3, basically a 6-point adjustment.  It’s time to buy low on the Vikings, and sell high on the 2-0 Titans who have beaten 2 bad teams in the Broncos and Jaguars by a combined 5 points.  The Vikings are better than both those teams and will likely win this game outright to get back on track.  Take Minnesota.

7* Dolphins/Jaguars AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +3

The Key: The Miami Dolphins hung 28 points on the Buffalo Bills last week and gave them everything they could handle.  They also hung tough with the New England Patriots on the road.  They are going to be able to score at will on this awful Jaguars defense that gave up 33 points to the Titans last week and that is giving up 400 YPG this year.  The Dolphins are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games off a SU loss.  The Jaguars are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as favorites.  Bets on road dogs who gave up 335 or more YPG last year after allowing 450 or more yards in their previous game are 24-4 ATS since 1983.  Take Miami.

7* Saints/Raiders MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Oakland +5.5

The Key: All the playmakers the Raiders added in the offseason paid off in a big way against the Panthers in Week 1.  Las Vegas scored 34 points and will be a tough team to stop offensively all season.  Their defense is better than it showed against the Panthers and played well in giving up only 15 points through 3 quarters, but Carolina made a comeback in the 4th.  The Saints did not beat the Bucs as badly as the 34-23 final would suggest.  They only had 271 total yards but forced 3 turnovers and didn’t give the ball away once.  They slowed down without Michael Thomas, who suffered an ankle injury in that game and is now out this week.  There’s just no replacing what Thomas does for this offense.  He had 149 receptions for 1,725 yards and 9 TD in 2019 after having 125 receptions for 1,405 yards and 9 TD in 2018.  He is arguably the best receiver in the NFL.  Take Las Vegas.

7* AFC South Game of the Month on Jacksonville Jaguars +9

The Key: The Jacksonville Jaguars were singled-out as the worst team in the NFL in the offseason by most media outlets.  They are taking it personally.  They respond with a 27-20 win over Indianapolis as 7-point dogs in Week 1.  I was on them in that game, and I’m back on them again this week as 9-point dogs to the Tennessee Titans.  Gardner Minshew continued proving his doubters wrong, completing 19-of-20 passes against the Colts with his only incompletion being a catchable ball.  With Minshew at QB, they will be able to compete.  The Titans are over-hyped after making the AFC Championship last year.  They barely beat the Broncos 16-14 on Monday Night Football, which means they are now on a short week while the Jaguars have an extra day to get ready.  The Titans are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.  The Jaguars are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 September games.  Take Jacksonville.

6* Lions/Packers NFC *CA$H COW* on Detroit +6.5

The Key: The Detroit Lions just blew a 23-6 lead over the Chicago Bears in the 4th quarter. They are the kinds of close losses dating back to last season, and they don’t want to be known as the team that cannot finish this year.  Look for them to be playing with a chip on their shoulder Sunday against the Packers.  And since the Lions have such a knack for losing close games, getting 6.5 points with them here is a nice price.  The Packers are over-hyped after beating up on a young, banged-up Minnesota defense last week, winning 43-34.  The Lions will offer a lot more resistance than the Vikings did on both sides of the ball.  Detroit is 4-2 SU & 6-0 ATS in its last 6 meetings with Green Bay with the 2 losses both coming last year by 1 and 3 points.  They have revenge in mind in this first matchup of 2020.  Take Detroit.

6* Rams/Eagles NFC *CA$H COW* on Philadelphia PK

The Key: Philadelphia blew a 17-0 lead against Washington last week and was outscored 27-17 the rest the way.  The offense stalled, and Carson Wentz had a poor game as he just didn’t have any time and was sacked 8 times.  Injuries on the offensive line contributed to it.  But the Eagles got good injury news this week as both G Jason Peters and T Lane Johnson will play Sunday, plus they get RB Mile Sanders back after missing last week.  Johnson means everything to the O-Line.  The Eagles are 36-17 with Lane under Doug Pederson, but just 6-12 without him.  The Rams played good enough to win over the Cowboys, who had all kinds of injuries hit their defense last week.  The Rams won that game 20-17.  Now they faced a pissed off Eagles team, and the challenge will be much tougher for them this week.  I love the price getting the Eagles as a pick ‘em at home as I still think they are the better team than the Rams.  Take Philadelphia.

7* Bengals/Browns AFC *Total* Annihilator on OVER 43.5

The Key: There are some key injuries on defense for both teams heading into this Thursday night affair.  The Browns are missing 3 starters in the secondary, and the Ravens diced them up for 38 points last week.  They also lost LB Jacob Phillips in that game and he is out this week.  The Bengals are without their best defensive player in DT Geno Atkins, plus starting S Shawn Williams.  The OVER is 4-0-1 in the last 5 matchups with combined scores of 44 or more points in all 5 games.  They combined for 46 and 56 points in their 2 matchups last year.  Take the OVER.

7* Steelers/Giants NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Pittsburgh -6

The Key: The Pittsburgh Steelers did a great job of getting to 8-8 last season without Ben Roethlisberger.  They got there behind a defense that ranked 5th in total defense at 304.1 YPG and 5th in scoring defense at 18.9 PPG.  They were also 1st in sacks (54) and 1st in takeaways (38).  Rookie QB Daniel Jones had 23 turnovers last year, including 11 lost fumbles and he didn’t even play the entire season.  The Giants have a makeshift offensive line to start the season, so the Steelers will dominate the line of scrimmage defensively, and that will be the key to them winning and covering.  Big Ben just has to be decent for the Steelers to put away the Giants.  And all reports coming out of training camp is that he has great velocity on his balls and looks like the old Big Ben.  Take Pittsburgh.

6* Dolphins/Patriots AFC East *CA$H COW* on Miami +7.5

The Key: The Miami Dolphins came on strong at the end of last season under Brian Flores. They even upset the New England Patriots in Week 17.  And now the Dolphins have almost everyone back, plus brought in some talent on defense.  They will go with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, who gives his team a chance to win every week.  The Patriots are in a world of hurt replacing Tom Brady with Cam Newton.  But they are even worse off on defense with all of the players that have opted out.  The Patriots can’t be favored by more than a TD here given their current state entering Week 1.  Take Miami.

7* NFL Game of the Week on Jacksonville Jaguars +8

The Key: The Jaguars have been getting trashed all offseason.  There is a lot of hype around the Colts with the addition of Philip Rivers.  That narrative has created some nice line value here to back the Jaguars catching more of a touchdown at home in their opener. Gardner Minshew had a great rookie season and should only build off of it this year.  The Jaguars are still loaded with talent on defense, and the offense isn’t that bad under Minshew.  Rivers is far past his prime and I don’t think he’ll be as good as everyone is expecting.  He had great weapons with the Chargers, and he has a downgrade in weapons with the Colts.  Take Jacksonville.

6* Jets/Bills AFC East *CA$H COW* on New York +7 

The Key: There’s a lot of hype on the Buffalo Bills after making the playoffs last year.  But they were 10-6 while the Jets were 7-9 and really not that far behind.  And I don’t think there is 7 points separating these teams entering Week 1 of 2020, so I like the price we are getting with the Jets here.  The Jets blew a big lead in Week 1 last year to the Bills and lost 16-17.  But they got revenge in a 13-6 win in Week 17.  And this game will likely be decided by a TD or less, just as the last 3 matchups have been.  Take New York.

6* Texans/Chiefs *Total* Annihilator on OVER 53

The Key: The Chiefs and Texans are 2 of the better offensive teams in the NFL this season, especially the Chiefs.  And both have suspect defenses, especially the Texans.  I think we see plenty of offensive fireworks in this Week 1 opener tonight to push this total OVER 53 points.  The Texans gave up 25.3 PPG and 393 YPG last year.  The Chiefs can score at will on them.  We saw that in the playoffs when the Chiefs won 51-31 for 82 combined points with the Texans.  Houston won the regular season matchup 31-24 for 55 combined points. This total is 53 is simply too low in today’s NFL and with these 2 teams.  Take the OVER.

7* 49ers/Chiefs Super Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on San Francisco +1.5 

The Key: The San Francisco 49ers are the most compete team in the NFL this season and certainly deserve their spot in the Super Bowl.  They are 15-3 on the year and those 3 losses all came on the final play of the game.  And they battled through injuries all season and are now as healthy as they’ve been since the start of the year.  They buried both the Vikings and Packers early with a 27-10 win over the Vikings and a 27-0 lead over the Packers.  They are 4th in total offense and 2nd in scoring offense this year.  They are 2nd in total defense this year.  They simply have no weaknesses.  The Chiefs have plenty of weaknesses that the 49ers can exploit.  Kansas City’s offensive line isn’t very good and won’t be able to handle the best D-Line in the NFL.  That’s going to make Mahomes’ job a lot harder as he faces San Francisco’s #1 ranked pass defense.  The Chiefs are weak defensively up the middle as they are 26th against the run and 28th in YPC (4.9) allowed.  The 49ers are 2nd in rushing offense and just rushed for 186 yards on the Vikings and 285 on the Packers, who rank similar to the Chiefs in run D stats.  The 49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against a team with a winning reocrd.  The 49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as underdogs.  Take San Francisco. 

6* Packers/49ers NFC *CA$H COW* on San Francisco -7.5 

The Key: The 49ers got 3 defensive starters back last week and held the Vikings to just 10 points and 147 total yards.  They have the best defense in the NFL and that was on display in the 1st meeting.  They beat the Packers 37-8 and held them to 198 total yards including 81 passing.  Green Bay has a terrible offensive line, especially up the middle where they will be overmatched by Armstead and Thomas.  And then you have Bosa and Ford on the outside as arguably the best pass rushing tandem in the NFL.  Not even a QB the caliber of Aaron Rodgers can overcome this elite San Francisco defense.  Take San Francisco. 

7* NFL Playoffs Game of the Year on Kansas City Chiefs -7 

The Key: The Chiefs dominated the first meeting with the Titans but found a way to lose 32-35.  That won’t happen again in the rematch, especially since it’s being played at Arrowhead Stadium.  And now the Chiefs feel invincible after coming back from 24-0 down to win 51-31 over the Texans last week.  The Chiefs outgained the Titans 530 to 371 in their first meeting.  Those kinds of numbers would usually result in a double-digit blowout.  The Chiefs are 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall winning by 17 PPG.  Take Kansas City. 

7* Seahawks/Packers NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Green Bay -4 

The Key: No write up Sunday. On vacation. 

7* NFL Playoffs Total of the Year on Vikings/49ers OVER 44 

The Key: No write up.  On vacation. 

7* NFL Wild Card Total of the Year on Seahawks/Eagles UNDER 45 

The Key: It’s hard to believe the books have set this total this high when you look at all the injuries to both offenses.  The Seahawks had Gordon suspended, are missing at least their top 2 running backs and could be without 2 starting offensive linemen.  Their offense has been broken in recent weeks because of it.  They scored 12 on the Rams, 13 on the Cardinals and 21 on the 49ers in 3 of their last 4 games.  The Eagles’ injury situation is worse.  They are without Lane Johnson, DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery, Nelson Agholor and could be without Zach Ertz again this week.  I think we see a similar game to the 17-9 final for 26 combined points that the Eagles and Seahawks just played earlier this season.  I like that they’ve already played each other this year because that familiarity favors the defenses.  The Eagles are 9-1 UNDER vs. good passing teams that average 235 or more yards per game over the last 10 seasons.  The Eagles are 7-0 UNDER in home games against poor defensive teams that allow 350 or more yards per game over the last 2 years. The Eagles are 7-0 UNDER in home games off a division game over the last 3 years.  The UNDER is 8-1-1 in Eagles last 10 playoff home games and 16-5 UNDER int heir last 21 home games overall.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Bills/Texans AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston -2.5 

The Key: We’re getting the Houston Texans pretty cheap here in a game they basically just have to win to cover at home.  The Bills haven’t done well when they have stepped up in class.  They are 1-4 against playoff teams this year with their only win coming against the Titans when Marcus Mariota was their quarterback.  The Texans have gone 3-3 against playoff teams with wins over the Chiefs, Patriots and Titans.  One of their losses was to the Titans when they rested their starters in Week 17.  They should be fresh and ready to go, plus they get back JJ Watt and a few others from injury that makes them a stronger team going into the playoffs.  Bets on teams when the line is +3 to -3 who are a good passing team at 6.7-7.3 YPA against an average passing team 5.9-6.7 YPA after gaining 5.5 or fewer passing yards per attempt last game are 24-5 ATS over the last 10 years.  Take Houston. 

6* 49ers/Seahawks NFC West *BAILOUT* on San Francisco -3 

The Key: The 49ers are an elite team and a Super Bowl contender, while the Seahawks are a pretender.  The 49ers are +164 in point differential on the season while the Seahawks are only +12.  It’s a minor miracle the Seahawks even have a chance to win the division.  That chance will go by the wayside this week as the 49ers handle their business.  They have a healthy George Kittle and Emmanuel Sanders now, which they didn’t have in their 1st meeting with the Seahawks.  And Seattle will be playing with a lot of different players than they did in that 1st meeting with the 49ers due to their plethora of injuries up and down their roster.  I mean, they even had to sign Marshawn Lynch off the street they are so desperate.  Take San Francisco. 

7* NFC East Game of the Year on New York Giants +4 

The Key: The New York Giants are playing well here in their last 3 games and would like to knock the NFC East rival Eagles out of the playoffs.  The Giants are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games overall.  They won 36-20 at home over the Dolphins and 41-35 on the road at the Redskins.  Daniel Jones was great as the Giants had 552 total yards on the Redskins last week.  And now the Giants want to avenge their only loss here down the stretch, a 17-23 (OT) loss at Philadelphia.  Now the Giants get the Eagles at home and are catching 4 points.  It’s a depleted Eagles team that will be without Zach Ertz, Nelson Agholor and several others.  Bets against favorites who are off an upset win as a home dog that win 51% to 60% of their games when playing a losing team are 26-5 ATS since 1983.  Take New York. 

6* Sunday NFL *UPSET SPECIAL* on Cincinnati Bengals +3 

The Key: The Bengals want to avenge their 19-27 loss at Cincinnati earlier this month.  The Browns have a lot more injuries since that meeting, and the Bengals are a lot healthier plus they have gone to Andy Dalton at QB.  Plus the Bengals should have won that game, anyway.  They had 451 yards in that game and outgained the Browns by 118 yards.  The Browns haven’t shown much interest in finishing the season strong at all after losing by 14 at Arizona and by 16 at home to Baltimore.  They were dominated in the stat department in both those games.  Take Cincinnati. 

7* Packers/Vikings NFC North *HEAVY HITTER* on Minnesota -4.5 

The Key: The numbers show the Vikings are the better team than the Packers despite having the worse record.  Well, the Vikings can pull even with the Packers for 1st place in the NFC North with a win.  They would still need some help next week, but first things first, and I think they handle their business at home tonight.  The Packers are 21st in offense while the Vikings are 10th in offense.  The Packers are 22nd in defense and the Vikings are 14th in defense.  The Vikings have outscored the opposition by 119 points this year, while the Packers have only outscored their opponents by 47 points.  Minnesota is 36-15-1 ATS in its last 52 home games and 22-8 ATS in its last 30 games as a home favorite of 7 or less.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 matchups.  Take Minnesota. 

7* AFC West Game of the Year on Oakland Raiders +7.5 

The Key: The Chargers can’t be trusted to lay 7.5 points to the Raiders.  The Chargers aren’t a team that wins or loses many blowouts.  Though they did get worked 10-39 by the Vikings last week.  The Raiders had a bad loss to the Jaguars that they deserved to win.  But that has gotten us some extra value on them this week.  The Chargers have zero home-field advantage and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the Raiders have more fans attend this game.  The Chargers are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 home games.  Los Angeles is 0-5-1 ATS in its last 6 games as a home favorite.  The Raiders are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 trips to Los Angeles.  The underdog is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  Take Oakland. 

6* NFL Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5 

The Key: The Falcons are off a massive upset win as 10-point dogs at San Francisco.  This is an obvious letdown spot for them now as they return home to host the Jaguars.  The Falcons have been awful at home this season.  They are just 2-5 at home this year.  The Jaguars showed some fight in coming back from a 16-3 deficit to beat the Raiders last week.  They clearly have not quit.  And now that the hated Tom Coughlin was just fired, players can breathe a sigh of relief.  I look for a great effort from them today.  Jacksonville gets back leading receiver DJ Chark from injury this week to help out the offense.  Atlanta has lost 7 straight and 12 of its last 13 to AFC opponents.  The Falcons are 0-14 ATS in their last 14 against AFC foes.  Take Jacksonville. 

6* Sunday NFL *Total* Annihilator on Panthers/Colts OVER 46.5 

The Key: Two teams who have been eliminated from the playoffs square off today in Indianapolis.  I don’t think the defenses of either of these teams will be too interested.  And the injuries to both defenses favors the OVER.  The Colts are missing potential 3 starters in the secondary.  The Panthers are missing a handful of guys along their front 7.  The Panthers have allowed 29 or more points in 5 straight games.  Carolina will let rookie Will Grier throw the ball as much as possible in this game to see what he can do, which also favors the OVER.  Carolina is 10-2 OVER in games played on turf over the last 3 years and 36-14-1 in the last 51 games on turf.  The OVER is 21-8 in Panthers last 29 games as a road dog.  Take the OVER. 

7* Rams/49ers NFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on San Francisco -6.5 

The Key: The Rams lost all hope of making the playoffs last week with their 44-21 loss to the Cowboys.  Now they’ll be officially eliminated after getting blasted by the 49ers for a 2nd time this year.  The 49ers won 20-7 on the road and held the Rams to just 165 total yards.  Now they’ll win by more than a touchdown at home today.  The 49ers will be hungry after their upset loss to the Falcons last week, which was predictable given the spot off 3 straight huge games and with the Rams and Seahawks on deck.  Now the 49ers can’t afford a loss if they want to get the #1 seed in the NFC.  Take San Francisco. 

6* Bills/Patriots AFC East *Total* Annihilator on OVER 37 

The Key: This is a sneaky good OVER bet with a very low total of 37 points.  It’s sneaky because you wouldn’t think it, but both Buffalo and New England have been pushing the pace offensively.  The Patriots are 1st in the NFL since Week 10 in amount of seconds between snaps, playing faster than anyone.  They will use some no-huddle here to try and negate Buffalo’s pass rush.  Buffalo is 7th in the NFL in offensive pace since Week 10, which coincided with OC Dabol moving to the booth to call plays.  My math model shows 42 points in this game, giving us 5 points of value on the OVER.  Take the OVER. 

7* Colts/Saints NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Indianapolis +10 

The Key: The Indianapolis Colts don’t get blown out often.  They are still alive for the playoffs and will give the Saints all they can handle.  The Colts are 6-7 but only have one loss by more than 7 points this year, which was their 14-point loss to the Titans a few weeks back in a game they dominated up until having a blocked FG returned for a TD.  The Saints already have the NFC South title locked up and won’t be all that hungry here to finish the season.  Bets against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points who have won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games that win 75% or more of their games in the 2nd half of the season are 34-12 ATS over the last 5 years. Take Indianapolis. 

6* Bills/Steelers AFC *BAILOUT* on Pittsburgh PK 

The Key: This play falls into an angle that I’m going to back this week in 3 games I like anyway.  When the line is between the 3’s, we’ll back a team off a SU & ATS win against a team off a SU & ATS loss.  This system has gone 22-4 ATS over the last 2 years.  Take Pittsburgh. 

6* Rams/Cowboys NFC *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles  +1

The Key: This play falls into an angle that I’m going to back this week in 3 games I like anyway.  When the line is between the 3’s, we’ll back a team off a SU & ATS win against a team off a SU & ATS loss.  This system has gone 22-4 ATS over the last 2 years.  Take Los Angeles. 

7* AFC South Game of the Year on Tennessee Titans -3 

The Key: This play falls into an angle that I’m going to back this week in 3 games I like anyway.  When the line is between the 3’s, we’ll back a team off a SU & ATS win against a team off a SU & ATS loss.  This system has gone 22-4 ATS over the last 2 years.  Take Tennessee. 

7* Jets/Ravens AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on New York +17 

The Key: The New York Jets have won 4 of their last 5 games and should not be catching 17 points against the Baltimore Ravens.  This is a good matchup for the Jets, who lead the NFL in giving up just 3.0 YPC and only 78.8 RYPG.  The Ravens lead the league in rushing, so it is strength against strength.  And the Jets get a hobbled Lamar Jackson who is nursing a quad injury, so the Ravens won’t be as potent as they have been in the past.  The 49ers held them to 20 points and the Bills held them to 24 points while both teams held them to near season lows in yardage.  The Jets will have success defensively against them, and Sam Darnold is playing some of the best football of his career during this 4-1 stretch.  Take New York. 

7* Giants/Eagles NFC East *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 45.5 

The Key: Weather is expected to be a factor in Philadelphia tonight in this NFC East rivalry game with the New York Giants.  There is a good chance for rain and winds will be around 13 miles per hour.  The Giants will be more restricted offensively with Eli Manning returning to the lineup in place of Daniel Jones.  This Giants defense is playing better of late in giving up just 294 yards to the Jets, 335 yards to the Bears and 322 yards to the Packers in their last 3 games overall.  The Eagles still have an elite defense that has yielded 17 or fewer points in 4 of their last 5 games overall.  They yield just 18 PPG at home this year and score only 21.3 PPG.  The Giants managed just 19.2 PPG on the season.  Philadelphia is 16-4 UNDER in its last 20 games after scoring and allowing 30 points or more last game.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Eagles last 9 games after allowing 6.5 YPP or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Eagles last 6 home games against poor defensive teams that allow 350 YPG or more.  The UNDER is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Philadelphia.  Take the UNDER. 

6* Ravens/Bills AFC *CA$H COW* on Buffalo +6.5 

The Key: The Bills have the rest advantage in this one after playing last Thursday while the Ravens just finished a physical game with the 49ers on Sunday.  This line indicates the Bills would be 12.5-point dogs in Baltimore, which is absurd.  The Bills have the #3 defense in the NFL and will be able to slow down the Ravens.  I love the price we are getting with the Bills at home today because the Ravens have won 8 straight coming in.  Bets against road favorites off 8 or more straight wins in December games are 23-4 ATS since 983.  Take Buffalo. 

7* 49ers/Saints NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on San Francisco +2.5 

The Key: The 49ers are the better team in this matchup with the Saints and the numbers show it.  Wrong team favored here.  The 49ers are outgaining opponents by 127 YPG, while the Saints are only outgaining opponents by 38 YPG.  The 49ers rank 1st in the NFL in total defense and 1st in the NFL against the pass.  They have a dominant defensive line that will give the Saints’ banged-up offensive line troubles.  The Saints are without 2 starters on the O-Line and could be without a 3rd.  That’s not what you want when you’re up against the best defensive line in the NFL.  The 49ers are 5-1 on the road this year with their only loss coming at Baltimore by 3 points.  That effort showed they could play with anyone.  I like that the 49ers stayed in Florida after the Ravens game so they won’t have all that travel in between games.  When teams meet at a location to get ready for a game the next week, they usually come out and play well.  The Saints are 0-6 ATS in home games off a division game over the last 3 years.  Bets on road dogs off a close road loss by 3 points or less in the final 4 weeks of the regular season are 23-5 ATS since 1983.  Take San Francisco. 

6* Lions/Vikings NFC North *CA$H COW* on Detroit +13 

The Key: The Lions have the rest advantage after playing last Thursday while the Vikings played in Seattle on Monday.  Despite being 3-8-1 this season, the Lions have held a lead in all 12 games at one point or another. And all 8 of their losses have come by 12 points or less, including 7 by 8 points or fewer.  They will not be losing a game by 13-plus points for the first time all season Sunday.  I was impressed with David Blough and this extra practice time will get him ready for the Vikings.  Minnesota is still going to be without Adam Thielen, plus the other 2 top weapons on this team in Dalvin Cook and Stefon Diggs are banged up.  Bets on road teams who have failed to cover the spread in 3 of their last 4 games in December games are 42-16 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take Detroit. 

7* Cowboys/Bears NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Dallas -3 

The Key: The Dallas Cowboys are 1st in the NFL in offense and 8th in defense.  They sit at 6-6, but they are a sleeping giant because of their record.  They are way better than they’ve shown record-wise, and I think that comes to fruition tonight as the Cowboys blast the Bears.  This is a Bears team that has struggled to put away the Giants and the Lions the last two weeks.  And now they’ll meet their match in the Cowboys here tonight.  The Bears are 29th in offense and 7th in defense.  Their offense just cannot be trusted.  Chicago is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games overall.  The Bears are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games after yielding 350-plus yard in their previous game.  Take Dallas. 

7* Vikings/Seahawks NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Minnesota +3 

The Key: The Minnesota Vikings are the better team in this matchup with the Seahawks and should not be underdogs.  The Vikings have won 6 of their last 7 and 6 of their 8 wins this year have come by at least 10 points, so they haven’t been getting lucky in close games like the Seahawks.  The Seahawks are 9-2 this year but 8 of those wins have come by one score.  They are 8-1 in one-score games this year, which is hard to keep up.  Mike Zimmer has 2 weeks to get ready for Russell Wilson as the Vikings are coming off their bye week.  Wilson has only averaged 161 passing yards per game in his 3 lifetime starts against Zimmer’s Vikings.    The Seahawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.  Their 3 home wins this year have come by 1, 1 and 6 points with that 6-point win coming in overtime over the Bucs.  Take Minnesota. 

7* Pats/Texans AFC *BAILOUT* on OVER 46 

The Key: The Patriots will finally get their offense going this week after three straight weeks against good defenses in the Ravens, Eagles and Cowboys.  Not to mention the Eagles and Cowboys games were played in terrible weather.  It will be perfect conditions in Houston tonight for a high-scoring affair.  The Patriots have a good chance of getting both Sanu and Dorsett back at receiver after both players missed last week.  And the Texans have one fo the best offenses in the NFL when Will Fuller is healthy, which he is.  They basically have two #1 WR’s who are tough to tame.  Houston is 18-6 OVER in its last 24 games off 3 consecutive under.  The Texans are 30-15 OVER in their last 45 games as a home dog of 7 points or less.  The OVER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.  Take the OVER. 

6* Packers/Giants NFC *CA$H COW* on New York +7 

The Key: Daniel Jones is proving to the Giants that their move to get him in the 1st round was warranted.  He has played well and has kept the Giants competitive in most games.  Jones should dice up a Packers defense that just gave up 37 points to the 49ers last week.  The Packers have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  They are 28th in total defense in allowing 380.5 YPG with only the Lions, Dolphins, Cardinals and Bengals being worse.  It’s hard to ask them to go on the road and win by more than 7 points with such a bad defense. The Giants are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games against teams that commit one or fewer turnovers per game in the 2nd half of the season.  The Giants are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.  Take New York. 

6* 49ers/Ravens Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on San Francisco +6 

The Key: If there’s one team that can tame the Ravens, it’s certainly the San Francisco 49ers.  That’s because they have the top-ranked defense in the NFL.  The 49ers only allow 248 YPG on the year.  Their offense is clicking after scoring 37 points on the Packers last week and getting both Emanuel Sanders and George Kittle back from injury recently.  The Ravens are working on a short week after beating the Rams on Monday Night Football.  The 49ers will have the edge in rest and preparation as a result.  Baltimore is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 home games off a Monday Night game.  The Ravens are only 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games overall.  Take San Francisco. 

7* Saints/Falcons NFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta +7 

The Key: The Atlanta Falcons will show up today against the New Orleans Saints.  They hate the Saints more than any other team in the NFL.  And they just beat New Orleans a few weeks back 26-9 on the road as 14-point dogs.  Now the Falcons are at home catching 7 points.  The Falcons are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 home meetings with the Saints with a spread of +7.  They haven’t lost by more than 6 points to the Saints at home since 2007.  Take Atlanta. 

6* Bills/Cowboys Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Buffalo +7 

The Key: The Buffalo Bills are 8-3 this season and have just one loss by more than 6 points.  That means they’d be 10-1 ATS in all games with a line of +7 for them.  I believe the Bills are one of the best teams in the NFL, but they don’t get the credit that other teams do.  The Cowboys are in a tough spot after a physical, rainy game against the Patriots on Sunday in a late-afternoon game.  Now they have to come back and play on a short week after facing the defending champion Patriots.  I usually like fading teams after playing the Patriots because it’s always a letdown spot.  And that’s the case here.  The Bills are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.  The Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a winning record.  Take Buffalo. 

7* Ravens/Rams NFL *Total* Annihilator on OVER 47 

The Key: I like the OVER quite a bit tonight.  The Ravens are scoring 34.1 PPG this season and can take care of most of this OVER on their own.  The Rams get both Robert Woods and Brandon Cooks back at receiver this week after both missed last week.  The Rams are scary offensively when they have Woods, Cooks, Kupp and Gurley all healthy at the same time.  Bets on the OVER on road teams with a total of 42.5 to 49 who are good teams that outscore opponents by 4 PPG or more when allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game are 72-31 over the last 10 years.  Take the OVER.

6* Bucs/Falcons NFC South *CA$H COW* on Atlanta -3.5 

The Key: No team has been more impressive than the Falcons in the 2nd half of the season this year.  They came out of their bye and promptly upset the Saints 26-9 as 14-point road dogs.  They proved it was no fluke by following it up with a 29-3 win at Carolina as 4.5-point dogs.  And now they are home only laying 3.5 points against a bad Tampa Bay team that can’t seem to get out of their own way.  The Bucs are 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  Jameis Winston cannot be trusted to not turn the ball over.  The Bucs have committed 19 turnovers in their last 5 games overall, which is absolutely atrocious.  Winston will likely continue giving the ball to the Falcons today, an improved Atlanta defense that has allowed just 12 points total the last 2 weeks combined.  Take Atlanta. 

6* Steelers/Bengals AFC North *CA$H COW* on Cincinnati +6.5 

The Key: The Steelers are a mash unit offensively right now.  I just don’t see them being able to score many points against the Bengals today considering they are without starting C Maurkice Pouncey, RB James Conner and WR JuJu Smith-Schuster.  Those are arguably their 3 best players on offense.  The Bengals showed some fight last week in Oakland and only lost by 7.  They will certainly show some fight against a division rival in the Steelers this week, and there’s no doubt they want to end this losing streak against them.  The Steelers only managed 7 points against the Browns last week and committed 4 turnovers.  They’ll continue to struggle to move the football and score points this week.  Take Cincinnati. 

7* AFC Game of the Month on Cleveland Browns -10.5 

The Key: The Browns played the toughest schedule in the entire NFL in the first half of the season.  Now the schedule has eased up, and the Browns have taken advantage.  After beating a good Bills team 19-16 at home, the Browns crushed the Steelers 21-7 last Thursday.  Now the Browns have had extra time to get ready for the Dolphins and are primed for one of their best games of the season.  The Dolphins have injuries all over their defense, especially in the secondary.  The Browns should take advantage and have one of their best offensive outputs of the year.  Cleveland has Kareem Hunt playing now and forming a dynamic 1-2 punch with Nick Chubb.  The Dolphins gave up 37 points to a bad Bills offense last week.  The Dolphins are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 after having won 2 of their last 3 games coming in.  Miami is 1-8 ATS in road games off one or more consecutive ATS losses over the last 3 years.  Take Cleveland. 

7* Colts/Texans AFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Indianapolis +3.5 

The Key: The Colts will win the battle in the trenches on both sides of the football.  That’s why I trust them more than the Texans.  They have by far the better defense, and by far the better offensive line.  The Colts rushed for 264 yards in their 33-13 win over the Jaguars last week.  The Texans gave up 263 rushing yards in their 7-41 loss to the Ravens and managed just 232 total yards on offense.  Deshaun Watson was sacked 7 times as his offensive line continues to struggle.  And not having JJ Watt makes Houston’s defense one of the worst in the NFL.  The Colts are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 against winning teams, while the Texans are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 against winning teams.  The Colts are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Houston.  Take Indianapolis. 

7* Chiefs/Chargers MNF *Total* Annihilator on OVER 52 

The Key: The altitude in Mexico City will take its toll on both defenses in the second half of this game.  I look for both offenses to score at will after intermission.  The Chiefs got Patrick Mahomes back last week and he showed no signs of rust as the Chiefs racked up 530 total yards including 433 passing in their 32-35 loss to the Titans.  Clearly the offense was not the problem, but they still have a soft defense that yields 370 YPG.  The Chargers have gotten healthier on offense with the returns of Hunter Henry and Melvin Gordon recently.  They are more potent now and put up 26 points on the Packers and 24 on the Raiders and probably should have scored more on Oakland but committed 3 turnovers.  Both meetings last year went OVER the total with 66 and 57 combined points in them.  The Chiefs and Chargers should have no problem combining for 52-plus in their first meeting of 2019.  The Chiefs are 6-0 OVER in road games after gaining 400 or more YPG in their last 3 games over the last 3 years.  The Chiefs are 8-1 OVER against good passing teams that average 7 YPA or more over the last 2 years.  The OVER is 9-1 in Chiefs last 10 games after gaining 350 or more yards in their last game.  Take the OVER. 

6* Cardinals/49ers NFC West *CA$H COW* on Arizona +10 

The Key: The 49ers are a mash unit right now.  They are without George Kittle and Emmanuel Sanders.  We saw how they fell apart against Seattle on Monday after Sanders went out with injury.  They are without RB Matt Breida, and fellow RB’s Tevin Coleman and Raheem Mostert are both questionable.  Not to mention the 49ers have injuries all over their offensive line.  I foresee Jimmy G struggling again without all his weapons.  The Cardinals sped up their offense in their 25-28 loss to the 49ers a few weeks ago and had success.  Look for them to go no huddle earlier in this game and find more success against the 49ers.  The Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games after yielding 6.0 YPP or more in their previous game.  Take Arizona. 

7* AFC East Game of the Month on Miami Dolphins +7 

The Key: The Dolphins outgained the Bills 381 to 305 in their first meeting this season just a few weeks ago.  But the Dolphins lost that game 21-31 in a very misleading final.  The Dolphins covered the spread in that game and they are now 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.  Now the Dolphins are getting 7 points in the rematch at home and will be out for revenge.  The Bills are not as good as their record and have feasted on some bad teams this year.  I can’t remember the last time they were laying a touchdown on the road.  Nobody seems to want to buy into the Dolphins which is why they have gone 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games.  And they’re not buying into them this week either.  We’ll go contrarian and back the Dolphins.  The Bills are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 road games against a team with a losing home record.  Take Miami. 

6* NFL Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Denver Broncos +10.5 

The Key: The Denver Broncos are in a good spot today coming off their bye week.  The Vikings are in a bad spot coming off a huge win on Sunday Night Football over the Cowboys.  They could let down here pretty easily.  The Broncos are better than their 3-6 record.  Only 2 of their losses have come by double-digits, and one was an 11-point loss.  So they have only really been blown out once all season, and that was by the Chiefs.  I don’t think Brandon Allen is much of a downgrade at all from Joe Flacco.  And I like that he has had 2 weeks to run with the first-team offense and prepare to face Minnesota.  But the reason the Broncos can keep this close is their defense.  They are 4th in the NFL in total defense and 6th in scoring defense, yielding just 18.9 PPG and 309.7 YPG.  They rank 9th in giving up just 4.0 YPC on the ground, so they will be able to slow down Dalvin Cook.  The Broncos are 19-6 ATS in their last 25 games off bye week.  Take Denver. 

7* Steelers/Browns NFL *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 42 

The Key: The UNDER is 6-3 in all Steelers games this season.  The Steelers have a terrible offense and a great defense, which is why they have been an UNDER team.  The Browns have been terrible offensively as well scoring just 19 PPG on the year.  The Steelers are 12-1 UNDER in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 years.  The UNDER is 15-3 in Steelers last 18 road games, and 38-15 in their last 53 road games overall.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Browns last 4 Thursday games.  The UNDER is 17-7-1 in Browns last 25 home games.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Seahawks/49ers NFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on San Francisco -6 

The Key: No analysis Saturday thru Monday.  On vacation. 

6* Vikings/Cowboys NBC *BAILOUT* on Dallas -3 

The Key: No analysis this weekend.  On vacation. 

7* NFC South Game of the Year on Atlanta Falcons +14 

The Key: No analysis this weekend.  On vacation. 

6* Ravens/Bengals AFC North *CA$H COW* on Cincinnati +10.5 

The Key: No analysis this weekend.  On vacation. 

7* Chargers/Raiders AFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Oakland +1.5 

The Key: The Raiders are hitting on all cylinders offensively with the balanced attack of Derek Carr’s precision passing and Josh Jacobs’ tough-nosed running.  The Raiders have reached or exceeded 24 points in 5 straight games.  The Chargers have scored 20 or fewer points in 6 of their last 8 games overall.  Philip Rivers is showing his age, and the Chargers have been a one-dimensional passing team.  I like backing home teams on Thursday nights, especially if they played at home the week before since there is no travel, which is the case for the Raiders after beating the Lions 31-24 in Oakland on Sunday.  The Raiders know this is their last season in Oakland, and they are showing out for their home fans.  The Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.  Take Oakland. 

7* Cowboys/Giants NFC East *HEAVY HITTER* on New York +7 

The Key: The Giants want to avenge their season opening loss to the hated Cowboys on the road.  The Cowboys were 7-point home favorites in that game, and now they are 7-point road favorites in the rematch.  That’s essentially a 6-point adjustment since the start of the season when you adjust for home-field advantage and I believe it’s too much.  The Giants have been a lot more competitive since Daniel Jones took over at quarterback.  They only have 2 losses by more than 6 points in Jones’ 6 starts this year and those came against the Vikings and Patriots.  And they had a bunch of injuries in those 2 games, but are now as healthy as they have been at any point this season.  The Giants will be able to stay within a touchdown of the Cowboys at home tonight and could pull off the upset.  After all, the Cowboys lost outright to the Jets as 7-point favorites in their last road game.  Take New York. 

7* AFC Game of the Month on Cleveland Browns -4 

The Key: The Browns have played one of the toughest schedules (4th) in the NFL this season.  They have a great chance to make up some ground in the AFC North starting with a win Sunday at the lowly Denver Broncos.  It’s a Broncos team that is 2-6 on the season and will now be without Joe Flacco for the foreseeable future.  They are forced to start Brandon Allen at quarterback.  I can’t see that going very well for Allen, especially since the Broncos have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, while the Browns have a solid pass rush.  Take Cleveland. 

6* Bucs/Seahawks NFC *CA$H COW* on Tampa Bay +5 

The Key: The Tampa Bay Bucs have played one of the toughest schedules (2nd) in the NFL this year.  The Seattle Seahawks have faced a much easier schedule (23rd) . I actually think the Bucs are the better team in this matchup despite the difference in records with the Bucs being 2-5 and the Seahawks being 6-2.  The Seahawks are just 2-2 at home this year and their 2 wins came by a single point.  They are very close to being 0-4 at home this year.  The Seahawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games.  Take Tampa Bay. 

6* Titans/Panthers Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Carolina -3.5 

The Key: We are getting the Panthers cheap Sunday at home because they are coming off a blowout road loss to the 49ers.  That’s a 49ers team that is making a lot of teams look bad.  Kyle Allen is still 5-1 as a starter in his career and he led the Panthers to 4 straight wins prior to that defeat.  Look for the Panthers to bounce back at home today.  The Titans come in getting too much respect from the books after winning 2 straight home games against the Chargers and Bucs.  They easily could have lost both of those games and were fortunate to win both.  Now Ryan Tannehill has to make his first road start of the year.  Things won’t be easy for him as the Titans are banged up.  They will be without C Ben Jones and TE Delanie Walker.  They will also be without arguably their best defender in DT Jurrell Casey.  Ron Rivera is 9-2 ATS off a blowout road loss by 14 points or more as the coach of the Panthers.  Take Carolina. 

7* 49ers/Cardinals NFC Total of the Month on OVER 43 

The Key: The 49ers will cover the majority of this total on their own.  They are scoring 29.6 PPG on the year and will shred an Arizona defense that ranks 29th in giving up 27.9 PPG and 407 YPG.  The Cardinals at least have a decent offense under Kliff Kingsbury and will get some points themselves.  This has the makings of somewhere in the neighborhood of a 30-20 final.  Bets on the OVER on road teams where the total is 42.5 to 49 off a home win by 10 points or more, undefeated on the season are 40-14 since 1983.  Take the OVER. 

7* Monday Night Football Game of the Year on Miami Dolphins +15 

The Key: Ryan Fitzpatrick plays with a fire that is contagious.  He nearly led the Dolphins from 14 points down to beat the Redskins but just came up short on a 2-point conversion.  Then he nearly beat one of the best teams in the NFL on the road in the Bills last week, who were coming off their bye.  Fitzpatrick is ready for the big Monday Night Football stage now.  The Steelers aren’t good enough offensively to pull away from the Dolphins.  They are 28th in total offense.  I would argue the Dolphins are actually the better offensive team in this matchup with Fitzpatrick.  This line has gotten out of hand with Miami catching more than 2 touchdowns. The Steelers are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games off a bye week.  The Steelers are also 12-28 ATS in their last 40 games as a favorite of at least 10 points.  Take Miami. 

7* NFL Total of the Year on Packers/Chiefs OVER 47.5 

The Key: Oddsmakers have adjusted this total too much for Patrick Mahomes being out.  Andy Reid has 10 days to get Matt Moore ready to run this offense after the Chiefs last played on Thursday.  And I think the Chiefs will continue to be one of the best offensive teams in the NFL this week even with Moore at QB because the scheme is great and the weapons are some of the best in the NFL.  I also expect Aaron Rodgers to put up a ton of points and continue playing at an MVP level.  The Packers are putting up 30.6 PPG in their last 5 games overall.  Now they’ll be up against a Chiefs defense that ranks 25th in yielding 377.4 YPG.  And the Chiefs are likely to be without their 2 best pass rushers in Chris Jones and Frank Clark, as well as one of their top corners in Kendall Fuller.  The Packers are 26th in total defense at 381 YPG allowed.  They have recently allowed 563 yards to the Cowboys and 484 yards to the Raiders in 2 of their last 3 games coming in. The OVER is 19-7 in Packers last 26 road games.  The OVER is 8-2 in Chiefs last 10 against a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.  Take the OVER. 

6* Cardinals/Saints NFC *CA$H COW* on Arizona +10.5 

The Key: The love for the New Orleans Saints is getting out of hand.  They are 6-1 this season and have covered 5 straight coming in.  The price is right to now go against them.  I think the Saints are making a mistake likely bringing back Drew Brees this week.  This line has gone to double-digits since that news came out.  And they could still be without Alvin Kamara.  The Cardinals are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games, yet they aren’t getting any credit for it.  Patrick Peterson recently returned from a 6-game suspension and has given the defense a big boost.  The Cardinals have stayed relatively healthy compared to most teams, too.  And Kyler Murray is starting to thrive in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense as the Cardinals are scoring 29 PPG in their last 3 games.  They have the firepower to hang with the Saints, and to get in the back door if it comes to it.  The Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.  The Saints are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games.  Take Arizona. 

6* Jets/Jaguars AFC *CA$H COW* on New York +6.5 

The Key: This line was Jaguars -4.5 before the Jets played the Patriots on Monday Night Football.  After they lost 33-0, this line has been adjusted up to Jaguars -6.5.  It’s too big of a move, and the price is right to pull the trigger on the Jets now.  The Patriots are making almost every quarterback they face look bad, and Sam Darnold can attest to that as the Jets turned the ball over 6 times.  The Jaguars aren’t the Patriots.  They had lost 2 in a row before pulling away late thanks to a defensive touchdown to beat the winless Bengals 27-17.  The fact that they were in a dog fight with the Bengals until the very end tells you all you need to know.  The Jaguars can’t be favored by nearly a TD over a Jets team that is way better than the Bengals.  Keep in mind the Jets beat the Cowboys outright as 7-point dogs the week before losing to the Patriots.  The Jaguars are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 after allowing 75 or fewer rushing yards in their previous game.  Jacksonville is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games off a win.  Take New York. 

7* Redskins/Vikings NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington +17 

The Key: The Redskins have two former Vikings on their team that are arguably their two biggest leaders, and they want to win this game for them.  Case Keenum led the Vikings to a deep playoff run before the Vikings let him go the following season.  And Adrian Peterson had a great career with the Vikings.  You know both players want to beat their former team, and you know the Redskins will have their backs.  That’s why I don’t question their motivation after a tough 1-6 start to the season.  The Vikings are getting a lot of respect from the books now after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games.  They won’t have Adam Thielen for this game, and they shouldn’t be laying 17 points.  The Redskins haven’t lost by more than 8 points to the Vikings in any of their last 10 meetings.  Take this 10-0 angle straight to the bank tonight.  Take Washington. 

7* AFC East Game of the Year on New York Jets +10 

The Key: Sam Darnold was one of the best quarterback in the NFL down the stretch last year as he improved greatly throughout his rookie season.  And he played well against Buffalo in the opener in a 16-17 loss before going down with a case of Mono.  He finally returned last week following the Jets’ bye week and promptly led them to a 24-22 upset win over the Cowboys.  Darnold threw for 338 yards and 2 touchdowns to lead the win.  He finally got Jamison Crowder and Robbie Anderson involved, which are the team’s two best weapons.  And we know what Le’Veon Bell is capable of.  Darnold should open up the running game moving forward now that the Jets finally have a threat of the pass.  The Patriots are 6-0, but they have played the league’s 32nd-ranked schedule as they have only beaten one team that is .500 or better.  The Jets have played the 10th-toughest schedule this year with 4 of their 5 games against .500 or better teams.  I love the price we are getting with the Jets catching double-digits at home here against the Patriots in a rematch from a 14-30 road loss with Luke Falk as their quarterback.  Darnold moves the needle for this team and is worth probably close to 10 points against the spread over Falk.  Bets on dogs of 3.5 to 10 points who are off a home win and revenging a same season loss are 37-13 ATS over the last 10 years.  Take New York. 

6* Chargers/Titans AFC *CA$H COW* on Tennessee -2 

The Key: The Tennessee Titans weren’t going anywhere with Marcus Mariota at quarterback.  I think inserting Ryan Tannehill at QB this week will give the team a spark in the short term.  He’s one of the best backup QB’s in the NFL and did well with what he had to work with when he was with the Miami Dolphins.  The Titans have more weapons than the Dolphins did, and I think he can get this offense on track.  The Chargers are broken at 2-4 on the season and have been hit harder by injuries than any other team in the NFL.  They are playing without S Derwin James, S Adrian Phillips, WR Dontrell Inman, WR Travis Benjamin and C Mike Pouncey.  They could also be without NT Brandon Mebane, DL Justin Jones, K Michael Badgley and DE Melvin Ingram, who are all questionable.  They just haven’t been able to overcome these injuries, and they won’t this week either.  The Titans are 26-13 ATS in their last 39 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less.  The Titans are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 home games after scoring 9 points or less last game.  The Chargers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  Take Tennessee. 

7* NFC Game of the Year on New York Giants -3 

The Key: The New York Giants got extra time to prepare for the Cardinals after playing the Patriots last Thursday.  They were very short-handed in that game against the Patriots and battled hard for 4 quarters before eventually relenting.  Now the Giants get some key playmakers back this week in RB Saquon Barkley and TE Evan Engram, who are their two best players on offense.  And they just recently got Golden Tate back from suspension, so they have ample weapons this week now for Daniel Jones, who is proving he belongs in the NFL.  Arizona could easily be 0-6.  Their 2 wins this season came by a combined 4 points.  They have a terrible defense that gives up 28.5 PPG and 414 YPG, so the Giants should score at will on them.  The Cardinals have a decent offense but are only scoring 22.3 PPG this year.  I think the Giants win in a shootout and get more stops than Arizona does.  Having the extra time to prepare for the dual-threat in Kyler Murray is a big advantage for New York’s defense.  The Giants are 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games after playing a Thursday game.  The Giants are 16-2 ATS in their last 18 after allowing 17 points or more in the first half of 2 straight games.  Take New York. 

6* Raiders/Packers Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Oakland +5.5 

The Key: The Raiders are in a great situation Sunday.  They have 2 weeks to get ready for the Packers after having their bye last week.  And the Packers are on a short week after a fortunate 23-22 win on Monday Night Football that was gifted to them by the refs.  The Packers are fortunate to be 5-1 this year as they keep winning all their close games.  Oakland continues to get no respect from oddsmakers.  They have been an underdog in all 5 games, and they’ve gone 3-2.  They upset Denver 24-16 as 3-point home dogs, upset the Colts 31-24 as 6-point road dogs, and upset Chicago 24-21 as 7-point road dogs.  They are averaging 4.9 yards per carry on offense behind rookie RB Josh Jacobs and Derek Carr is quietly having a great season.  Carr is completing 73.3% of his passes on the year.  Jon Gruden is coming up with great game plans week after week and proving that he still has the magic touch as a play caller.  The Packers give up 4.9 yards per carry, which is one of the worst marks in the NFL.  So Jacobs should find plenty of success on the ground.  The Raiders are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games after leading in their last 2 games by 10-plus points at halftime.  Take Oakland. 

7* Chiefs/Broncos AFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Denver +3.5 

The Key: Teams are starting to beat the Chiefs by controlling the ball and the time of possession.  They are doing so thanks to a banged up Chiefs defense that ranks 30th against the run.  The Chiefs have yielded 192, 180, 186 and 203 rushing yards in their last 4 games, respectively.  The Broncos have rushed for an average of 147 yards in winning each of their last 2 games over the Chargers and Titans.  Denver hasn’t lost by more than 2 points in any of its 3 home games this year.  This is clearly a game the Broncos can win outright.  The Broncos are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Thursday games and have a big advantage here playing at home on a short week after playing at home against the Titans on Sunday.  They don’t have to travel at all.  The Chiefs won’t handle playing in the altitude on a short week here on the road very well, especially with all the injuries they are dealing with right now.  Take Denver. 

7* Lions/Packers NFC North *HEAVY HITTER* on Green Bay -3.5 

The Key: This line was 6.5 on the lookahead line last week.  What has changed since then?  Green Bay blew out Dallas 34-24, while Detroit had a bye week.  Now this line has moved all the way down to 3.5.  The price is now right to pull the trigger on the Packers at home here.  No team in the NFL has a bigger home-field advantage than the Packers as their home field is probably worth 4 points.  And I have the Packers favored over the Lions on a neutral field, so I have no choice but to lay this short number with them.  I think the Lions are grossly overrated this year.  They are giving up 406 YPG on defense, and Aaron Rodgers should be able to name his score offensively.  The Packers have been great against the pass but poor against the run this year, but the Lions can’t exploit that as they average just 3.9 YPC this season.  The Packers are 25-3 SU & 18-8-2 ATS in their last 28 home meetings with the Lions and winning by 10 PPG on average.  Take Green Bay. 

7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Year on Jacksonville Jaguars -1 

The Key: The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone 2-2 with Gardner Minshew at quarterback and he has kept them in every game.  Minshew has thrown 9 touchdowns against only one interception this year and is completing 67% of his attempts.  He has led a suddenly potent Jaguars offense to an average of 481 YPG the last 2 weeks.  New Orleans has struggled offensively in its 2 road games this season.  The Saints are only averaging 255 YPG on the highway this year.  Teddy Bridgewater has been good at home, but not so good on the road.  This will be a tough environment for him up against a good Jaguars defense.  And life could be even more difficult if the Saints are without Alvin Kamara, who is listed as questionable after missing practice on Friday.  Bets on favorites in a game involving two mediocre defensive teams that give up 23-27 PPG, after 2 straight games where 50 or more total points were scored are 35-11 ATS over the last 10 years.  Take Jacksonville. 

6* Texans/Chiefs AFC *CA$H COW* on Kansas City -4 

The Key: The price is right to back the Kansas City Chiefs this week.  They are coming off two straight non-covers against Detroit and Indianapolis, including a shocking upset loss to the Colts last week.  Now they are laying only 4 points when this line was expected to be upwards of 8 points as early as last week.  I know that the Chiefs have some injury concerns, but Patrick Mahomes is going to play and they could get Tyreke Hill back this week as he has been practicing on a limited basis.  I just think the Texans are getting too much respect for their 53-32 home win over the Falcons last week, an Atlanta team that looked like they quit in the second half.  Don’t forget they had lost to the Panthers 10-16 and were fortunate to beat the Jaguars 13-12 in recent weeks.  Bill O’Brian is 0-7 ATS against good offensive teams that score 29 PPG or more as the coach of the Texans.  The Texans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a winning record.  They can’t keep up with the Chiefs in this one.  Take Kansas City. 

6* Sunday NFL *UPSET SPECIAL* on Cleveland Browns +2 

The Key: I also like backing good teams after they get embarrassed.  The Browns were thoroughly embarrassed on Monday Night Football on the road against a 49ers team that is looking more and more like one of the best teams in the NFL.  Now they are back home and playing with a chip on their shoulder this week.  And the Browns should get some key pieces back on defense as both starting CB’s in Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams actually practiced on a limited basis this week.  The injury news isn’t as good for the Seahawks, who are expected to be without two starting offensive linemen in G D.J. Fluker and T Duane Brown.  The Browns do have a good pass rush led by Myles Garrett, and I expect Russell Wilson to be running for his life.  It’s also a letdown spot for the Seahawks off their huge 30-29 home win over the hated Rams last week.  The Browns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss, and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games off an ATS loss.  They are also 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games off a loss by more than 14 points.  The home team is 3-0-2 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  Take Cleveland. 

7* Giants/Patriots NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on New England -16.5 

The Key: The New England Patriots are 5-0 this season.  They are outscoring their opponents by 24.2 PPG on the year so laying 16.5 points isn’t too much with them.  They have the No. 1 scoring (6.8 PPG) and total (238 YPG) defense in the NFL this year.  The Giants’ offense will be short-handed this week as they will for sure be without Barkley, Gallman and Shepard, and they could be without Engram as well.  Bill Belichick owns rookie quarterbacks and he’ll be bringing the heat all game on Daniel Jones.  Tom Brady and this New England offense are primed for a big game against the Giants No. 30 defense (409 YPG) Thursday night.  The Patriots are 40-17-2 ATS in their last 59 home games.  Take New England. 

7* Browns/49ers Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on San Francisco -3.5 

The Key: The numbers show that the 49ers are one of the best teams in the league this year.  They ranked Top 5 in total offense and Top 5 in total defense, and they are the only team in the NFL to accomplish that feat to this point.  They are outgaining their opponents by 138 YPG on the year.  Now they come off a bye week and will be ultra prepared to face the Browns.  And their home fans will be excited to see them as they have played 2 of their first 3 games on the road.  Things are looking up for Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco now that his team has finally remained relatively healthy.  The Browns are off a big division win over rival Baltimore last week.  I think now oddsmakers are giving them too much respect for that upset victory.  The Browns are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games off a win by 10 points or more against a division opponent.  Take San Francisco. 

6* Packers/Cowboys NFC *CA$H COW* on Dallas -3 

The Key: The Cowboys got the humbling they needed after a 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS start with 3 straight blowout wins to start the season.  They lost 10-12 at the Saints last week, and now they should be able to refocus with the Packers coming to town.  This is a Packers team they hate and one that has caused them a lot of heartbreak over the last few seasons, especially in the playoffs.  And now they get a shot at revenge here.  They won’t have to face star WR Devante Adams, who has been ruled out with a toe injury.  T Bryan Bulaga is questionable, and RB Jamal Williams is doubtful.  This severely hampers a Packers offense that has struggled all season with just 21.2 PPG and 338 YPG.  The Cowboys have an elite defense that yields only 14.0 PPG and 318 YPG.  Offensively, the Cowboys are rushing for 145 YPG and should be able to shred a Packers defense that gave up gaping holes in the running game to the Eagles last week.  The Packers are now allowing 142 RYPG and 5.0 YPC on the season.  The Packers are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 road games.  Take Dallas.