05-20-17 |
Warriors v. Spurs +9.5 |
Top |
120-108 |
Loss |
-115 |
8 h 59 m |
Show
|
7* Warriors/Spurs Game 3 *HEAVY HITTER* on San Antonio +9.5
The Key: The San Antonio Spurs aren't the type of team that's just going to pack it in down 2-0. They were deflated in Game 2 after losing Kawhi Leonard to injury in Game 1, and they did not play well as they shot just 37% while the Warriors hot 56% for the game. Look for them to show some pride tonight. After all, they are still 8-2 without Leonard this season, so they have the pieces to make this game competitive. I always like backing home teams in the playoffs in Game 3 after losing the first two games of the series because you know they are going to give the effort with their season basically on the line. The Spurs are 19-9 ATS in the last 28 home meetings. Take San Antonio.
|
05-19-17 |
Cavs v. Celtics +6.5 |
Top |
130-86 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 7 m |
Show
|
7* Cavs/Celtics Game 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston +6.5
The Key: The Boston Celtics are in must-win mode here in Game 2. They let the Cavs take it to them in Game 1 and won't make that same mistake again tonight. The Cavs are clearly a public team right now as they have gone 4-0-1 ATS in their last five playoff games while winning all nine playoff games thus far. The public is going to continue to back them blindly, and this line is up to 6.5 in some places today after being just 3.5 in Game 1. That's a clear over-adjustment as the books know that the public is only going to back the Cavs. This extra line value is a nice bonus in a game the Celtics will likely win outright. Take Boston.
|
05-17-17 |
Cavs v. Celtics +5 |
Top |
117-104 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 50 m |
Show
|
7* Cavs/Celtics Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston +5
The Key: The Boston Celtics have only played 4 games in the past 10 days. So I'm not buying the public perception that they are fatigued heading into this series. The Cavaliers have had 9 days off in between games and I think that puts them at a disadvantage in Game 1. The Celtics are favored by 4 at home in their final regular season meeting with the Cavaliers. Now they are GETTING 5 points in Game 1. That's way too big of an adjustment. The Celtics are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games. Take Boston.
|
05-16-17 |
Spurs +14 v. Warriors |
Top |
100-136 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 4 m |
Show
|
7* Spurs/Warriors Game 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on San Antonio +14
The Key: There's no question that the loss of Kawhi Leonard is huge for the Spurs. But I think the books have over-adjusted here in Game 2. In fact, the Spurs are actually 8-1 this season without Leonard, which is remarkable. They thumped Houston 114-75 on the road without Leonard in Game 6 last series. Bets against home favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (75% or better) playing a good team (60% to 75%) are 32-9 ATS since 1996. San Antonio is 8-0 ATS off a close road loss of 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take San Antonio.
|
05-15-17 |
Wizards v. Celtics -5 |
Top |
105-115 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 26 m |
Show
|
7* Wizards/Celtics Game 7 *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston -5
The Key: The home team has won all 10 meetings between the Wizards and Celtics this season. The home team has gone 9-1 ATS in those 10 games as well. The Boston Celtics have won 8 straight home meetings with the Wizards while going 8-0 ATS in the process. I think they'll fee off their home crowd and run away with this Game 7, just as they have in all previous 8 home meetings with the Wizards. Take Boston.
|
05-14-17 |
Spurs v. Warriors -9.5 |
Top |
111-113 |
Loss |
-115 |
3 h 16 m |
Show
|
7* Spurs/Warriors Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Golden State -9.5
The Key: The Golden State Warriors are chomping at the bit to get back on the court again. They swept each of their first round series against the Blazers and Jazz while winning seven of those games by 11 points or more. I think they get a double-digit win over the Spurs in Game 1. The Spurs are banged up right now without Tony Parker and with Kawhi Leonard nowhere near 100%. They have also only had two days off since beating the Rockets in Game 6, while the Warriors have had five days off in between. San Antonio is 0-7 ATS off a road win over a division opponent this season. The Warriors are 17-5-1 ATS in their last 23 games overall. Take Golden State.
|
05-12-17 |
Celtics v. Wizards UNDER 217 |
Top |
91-92 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 33 m |
Show
|
7* Celtics/Wizards Game 6 *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 217
The Key: The Over has gone 4-1 in this series thus far. But I think Game 6 is primed to be the lowest scoring game yet as these teams clearly know one another very well now. And with the pressure of an elimination game, I don't expect the Wizards to shoot lights out, but their defensive effort will be there for four quarters. This one will be played at a much slower pace give the high stakes. Boston is 7-0 UNDER in Friday night road games this season. Boston is 13-2 UNDER in road games versus teams who allow 46% shooting or worse this season. Take the UNDER.
|
05-11-17 |
Spurs v. Rockets -6 |
Top |
114-75 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 51 m |
Show
|
7* Spurs/Rockets Game 6 *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston -6
The Key: I like the way the Houston Rockets responded the first time they trailed in this series. Trailing 2-1, they blew out the Spurs 125-104 at home in Game 4. After they gave away Game 5, I think the Rockets will respond with a big performance in Game 6 at home here again Thursday. The Spurs are already without Tony Parker, and now Kawhi Leonard is nowhere near 100% as he's nursing ankle and knee injuries. This is just a really bad spot for the Spurs here tonight. Take Houston.
|
05-10-17 |
Wizards v. Celtics -4 |
Top |
101-123 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 3 m |
Show
|
7* NBA 2nd Round Game of the Year on Boston Celtics -4
The Key: This one is really as simply as it gets. The home team has been dominant when the Wizards and Celtics get together. The home team has won 8 straight while going a perfect 8-0 ATS in the process. The Celtics have won 7 straight home meetings with the Wizards while going 7-0 ATS as well. They have won all 7 games by at least 8 points. Take Boston.
|
05-09-17 |
Rockets +5.5 v. Spurs |
Top |
107-110 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 27 m |
Show
|
7* Rockets/Spurs Game 5 *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston +5.5
The Key: Not every game in this series is going to be a blowout. After all, the four regular season meetings were all decided by 6 points or less, including three by exactly 2 points. But each of the first four games in this series have been decided by 11 points or more. The Rockets won by 21 and 27 points in their two victories. I have a sneaky suspicion this Game 5 comes down to the final shot, and thus the price is a good one in getting the Rockets at +5.5. The road team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. Take Houston.
|
05-08-17 |
Warriors v. Jazz UNDER 207 |
Top |
121-95 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 40 m |
Show
|
7* Warriors/Jazz Game 4 *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 207
The Key: We cashed in the UNDER in Game 3 with a 102-91 final and a total of 207.5. The oddsmakers have failed to adjust enough for Game 4 with another 207-point total. The UNDER is 7-1-1 in the last 9 meetings between the Jazz and Warriors. They have combined for 205 or fewer points in 7 of those 9 meetings. The UNDER is 25-8-2 in the last 35 meetings, including 11-4-1 in the last 16 meetings in Utah dating back further. The UNDER is 20-5-1 in Warriors last 26 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. The UNDER is 26-10 in Warriors last 36 road games. The UNDER is 7-1-1 in Jazz last 9 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. The UNDER is 10-2 in Jazz last 12 games following a double-digit loss at home. Take the UNDER.
|
05-07-17 |
Celtics v. Wizards UNDER 216 |
Top |
102-121 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 35 m |
Show
|
7* Celtics/Wizards Game 4 *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 216
The Key: The Celtics and Wizards are getting more familiar with one another as this series goes on. After two shootouts in Boston, these teams combined for just 205 points in Game 3 in Washington. I think we see a similar result here with what's at stake, and especially now that the Wizards are without one of their biggest offensive weapons in Kelly Oubre in Game 4 due to suspension. The UNDER is 13-3-2 in Celtics last 18 road games, including 5-0-1 in Celtics last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The UNDER is 4-1 in Wizards last 5 home games. Take the UNDER.
|
05-06-17 |
Warriors v. Jazz UNDER 208 |
Top |
102-91 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 24 m |
Show
|
7* NBA 2nd Round Total of the Year on Warriors/Jazz UNDER 208
The Key: The UNDER is 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings in this series. The Warriors and Jazz have combined for 209 or fewer points in seven of those eight meetings, and 205 or fewer in six of them. The Jazz play at the slowest tempo in the NBA, and they'll control the pace playing at home in Game 3. The UNDER is 25-10 in Warriors last 35 road games. The UNDER is 24-8-2 in the last 34 meetings, and 10-4-1 in the last 15 meetings in Utah. Take the UNDER.
|
05-05-17 |
Spurs v. Rockets -4.5 |
Top |
103-92 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 32 m |
Show
|
7* Spurs/Rockets Game 3 *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston -4.5
The Key: James Harden had one of his worst games of the season in Game 2 as he went just 3-for-17 from the field. Don't expect another poor performance from him here in Game 3 as this series shifts to Houston. This is where the Rockets take control of the series as they are clearly the better team. The Spurs are now down their starting point guard in Tony Parker for the rest of the postseason. They will be lost without him as Kawhi Leonard will have to take over more of the PG duties, which he's unaccustomed to. Leonard has too much on his plate for the Spurs. The Rockets are a complete team that can beat you with a number of different players. Take Houston.
|
05-04-17 |
Jazz +12.5 v. Warriors |
Top |
104-115 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 58 m |
Show
|
7* Jazz/Warriors Game 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on Utah +12.5
The Key: Gordon Hayward was basically a no-show in Game 1 and the Utah Jazz still managed to cover the 13-point spread. Expect a much better game from him here tonight after he went just 2-for-9 for 12 points in Game 1. Utah is 75-49 ATS when revenging a loss vs. opponent over the last three seasons. The Jazz are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games. Utah is 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on one days rest. Take Utah.
|
05-03-17 |
Raptors +7.5 v. Cavs |
Top |
103-125 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 44 m |
Show
|
7* Raptors/Cavs Game 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on Toronto +7.5
The Key: The Toronto Raptors are tired of getting beat down in Cleveland. They have lost their last four playoff games in Cleveland by an average of 25 points. I think they come out with a chip on their shoulder tonight and play the Cavs close from start to finish. They were at least competitive in Game 1, losing by 11 points. They will stay within 7.5 tonight, possibly pulling off the upset. Toronto is 10-2 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season. The Raptors are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games. The Cavaliers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take Toronto.
|
05-02-17 |
Jazz v. Warriors -12.5 |
Top |
94-106 |
Loss |
-115 |
9 h 22 m |
Show
|
7* Jazz/Warriors Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Golden State -12.5
The Key: Big advantage here for the Warriors in rest and preparation in Game 1. The Warriors beat the Blazers in 4 games and have been off since April 24. The Jazz needed 7 games to beat the Clippers and just wrapped up their series on Sunday. Look for the Warriors to keep the foot on the gas in Game 1 and make a statement here. The have had the Jazz number over the past couple seasons, going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings at Golden State. All 6 of those wins have come by at least 13 points, and that will get us a cover here in Game 1. Take Golden State.
|
05-01-17 |
Raptors +7 v. Cavs |
Top |
105-116 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 51 m |
Show
|
7* Raptors/Cavs Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Toronto +7
The Key: The additions of Serge Ibaka and PJ Tucker make the Raptors the biggest threats to beat the Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference. They took the Cavs to 6 games last year and are capable of winning this series now. The Cavs aren't as strong as they were a year ago, especially defensively as they ranked 22nd in efficiency during the regular season. They gave up 111 points per 100 possessions against the Pacers last series. While they swept the Pacers, that series was much closer than the sweep would suggest as all 4 games were decided by 6 points or less. Ibaka and Tucker helped the Raptors limit the Bucks to just 93.2 points per game last series. It's clear that they are by far the superior defensive team in this series. Toronto is hitting its stride in winning its last three games over the Bucks by a combined 39 points despite playing two of those games on the road. The Raptors are 10-1 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season. The Cavaliers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Take Toronto.
|
04-30-17 |
Jazz v. Clippers UNDER 191 |
Top |
104-91 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 32 m |
Show
|
7* Jazz/Clippers *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 191
The Key: The UNDER is 2-0 in the last two games of this series with combined scores of 188 and 191 points. This comes as no surprise because as these teams get more familiar with one another, the harder it is to score points. I think we'll see the lowest-scoring game of the series here in Game 7 Sunday with what is at stake. The UNDER is 5-0 in Jazz last 5 road games. The UNDER is 4-1 in Clippers last 5 home games. The UNDER is 17-5-1 in Clippers last 23 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Los Angeles. Take the UNDER.
|
04-28-17 |
Celtics -3 v. Bulls |
Top |
105-83 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 28 m |
Show
|
7* Celtics/Bulls Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston -3
The Key: The Chicago Bulls haven't been the same since losing Rajon Rondo. They are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games, getting outscored by a combined 37 points by the Celtics in the process. They have been held to just 93.0 points per game without Rondo as well as their offense has stalled. I think the Celtics close out the series here tonight, especially knowing that Isaiah Thomas and friends will be leaving for Washington for his sister's funeral after this game either way. They'd rather not have the distraction of a Game 7 during the funeral, so they'll be 'all in' here to finish the deal. Boston is 17-8 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. The Celtics are 17-8-2 ATS in their last 27 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The favorite is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings. The road team is 4-1 ATS in this series. Take Boston.
|
04-27-17 |
Raptors v. Bucks -1 |
Top |
92-89 |
Loss |
-103 |
6 h 26 m |
Show
|
7* Raptors/Bucks Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Milwaukee -1
The Key: The Toronto Raptors play great with their backs against the wall. They dug themselves out of a 2-1 deficit in this series to win the last two games. But now that they know they have a home game in their back pocket for Game 7, they won't be nearly as hungry to win Game 6 tonight. They just have a way of falling flat in games they don't need in the playoffs over the past two postseasons. They were forced to go to Game 7 twice last year in the first two rounds. Milwaukee is 8-0 ATS in home games off 2 straight losses by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Take Milwaukee.
|
04-26-17 |
Hawks v. Wizards UNDER 213 |
Top |
99-103 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 22 m |
Show
|
7* Wizards/Hawks *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 213
The Key: The last 3 games in this series have finished right around this 213-point total. They went for 210 points in Game 2, 214 in Game 3 and 212 in Game 4. I expect the lowest-scoring game of the series tonight. The more familiar teams become with one another, the harder it is to score. The advantage goes to the defenses when they know what the opposing offenses are trying to do. Atlanta is 9-0 UNDER in road games after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 8-0 in Hawks last 8 Wednesday games. The UNDER is 11-4-1 in Hawks last 16 road games. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Washington. Take the UNDER.
|
04-25-17 |
Thunder +7.5 v. Rockets |
Top |
99-105 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 10 m |
Show
|
7* Thunder/Rockets Western Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma City +7.5
The Key: The Oklahoma City Thunder have led 128 of 192 minutes in series but trail 3-1. That's the most minutes any team has led in any series in postseason through four games. They just haven't been able to finish game late. And this has been a closely-contested series all season. In fact, 6 of 8 meetings this season have been decided by 4 points or less. Dating back further, 11 of the last 13 meetings have been decided by 8 points or fewer. Expect a big effort from the Thunder with their season on the line. It also helps that James Harden has a bum ankle and isn't 100%. The Underdog is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Take Oklahoma City.
|
04-24-17 |
Bucks +6 v. Raptors |
Top |
93-118 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 45 m |
Show
|
7* Bucks/Raptors Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Milwaukee +6
The Key: The Milwaukee Bucks have been the better team in this series thus far. They have outscored the Raptors by a combined 24 points through four games. They played great in each of the first 3 games, but they committed an uncharacteristic 20 turnovers in Game 4 and lost by 11. They are being undervalued now after that performance, and I look for them to possibly win this game outright, let alone stay within 6 points in Game 5. Jason Kidd preached tempo after the Game 4 loss. He said they were playing too slow, and that their energy level was too low. Look for them to correct their mistakes and get back to playing the way they were when they took 2 of the first 3 games from the Raptors by a combined 35 points. The Bucks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. The Raptors are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 Conference Quarterfinals games. Take Milwaukee.
|
04-23-17 |
Rockets v. Thunder -1 |
Top |
113-109 |
Loss |
-105 |
4 h 37 m |
Show
|
7* Rockets/Thunder Western Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma City -1
The Key: The Oklahoma City Thunder picked up a huge win in Game 3 as they breathed a huge sigh of relief after James Harden missed a potential game-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer. Now they have the confidence that they can beat the Rockets, and I think that carries over into Game 4 here. The Thunder have some of the best home fans in the NBA, which has led to a 29-13 record on their home floor this season. This is a very generous -1 price as a result. The Thunder are 8-0 ATS in home games after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games this season. The Rockets are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Take Oklahoma City.
|
04-22-17 |
Spurs v. Grizzlies +5 |
Top |
108-110 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 27 m |
Show
|
7* Spurs/Grizzlies Western Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Memphis +5
The Key: Home-court advantage has meant everything when the Grizzlies and Spurs have gotten together this season. In fact, the home team is a perfect 7-0 straight up in their 7 meetings this season. I look for that to improve to 8-0 as the Grizzlies win outright tonight, so getting 5 points along with it is just an added bonus. Take Memphis.
|
04-21-17 |
Rockets v. Thunder -2 |
Top |
113-115 |
Push |
0 |
9 h 43 m |
Show
|
7* NBA 1st Round Game of the Year on Oklahoma City Thunder -2
The Key: It's now or never for the Oklahoma City Thunder. They blew a 15-point lead in the 2nd half of Game 2 and lost to fall down 0-2 in this series. They can't afford to go 0-3 or this series is over. Look for them to play hungry tonight at home and to take this Game 3 from the Houston Rockets, who will relax after taking care of business at home. The Thunder are 28-13 SU & 26-14-1 ATS at home this season. OKC is 7-0 ATS in home games after allowing 115 points or more this season. The Thunder are 13-2 ATS after having lost 3 of their last 4 games this season. The Rockets are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Take Oklahoma City.
|
04-20-17 |
Cavs v. Pacers OVER 210.5 |
Top |
119-114 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 38 m |
Show
|
7* NBA 1st Round Total of the Year on Cavs/Pacers OVER 210.5
The Key: The oddsmakers have failed to adjust this total high enough in Game 3 tonight despite the fact that the first two games in this series have gone well OVER the total. In fact, the Cavs and Pacers have combined for at least 217 points in each of their last 5 meetings now dating back to the regular season. Both teams play 'optional' defense this year and prefer to go small offensively, which is a recipe for overs. The OVER is 20-5-1 in Cavaliers last 26 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. The OVER is 30-12-1 in Cavaliers last 43 vs. Eastern Conference. Cleveland is 32-12 OVER when the total is 210 to 219.5 this season. Take the OVER.
|
04-19-17 |
Blazers +14 v. Warriors |
Top |
81-110 |
Loss |
-115 |
10 h 1 m |
Show
|
7* Blazers/Warriors Western Conference *BAILOUT* on Portland +14
The Key: The Portland Trail Blazers have gone 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games overall. They have been undervalued down the stretch and continue to be in the postseason. That's especially the case when you consider how tough they have played the Warriors, going 3-0 ATS in the last 3 meetings while losing by 2, 8 and 12 points. Now Kevin Durant is dealing with a calf injury, and Shaun Livingston and Matt Barnes are also questionable with injuries. I think the Blazers are live dogs tonight as they look to build on their 6-1 ATS run in road games. Take Portland.
|
04-18-17 |
Bulls v. Celtics UNDER 206.5 |
Top |
111-97 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 41 m |
Show
|
7* Bulls/Celtics TNT *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 206.5
The Key: The Chicago Bulls and Boston Celtics have been playing in some defensive battles of late. They have combined for 208 or less points in each of their last 5 meetings. Game 1 saw 208 combined points, but they went off in the final two minutes with fouls as the Celtics were mounting their comeback. That isn't likely to happen again. The UNDER is 5-1 in Bulls last 6 games overall. The UNDER is 22-7 in Bulls last 29 games when playing on 1 days rest. The UNDER is 8-0 in Celtics last 8 home games against a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Take the UNDER.
|
04-17-17 |
Grizzlies +11 v. Spurs |
Top |
82-96 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 40 m |
Show
|
7* Grizzlies/Spurs NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Memphis +11
The Key: The Memphis Grizzlies are a prideful team that won't go down without a fight. They were swept by the Spurs in the playoffs last season and want revenge. They played horrible in the 2nd half of Game 1 after it was close in the first half. They'll come back swinging for the fences in Game 2 tonight. The Grizzlies and Spurs split the season series 2-2 with the largest margin of victory by the Spurs of 7 points. The Grizzlies actually outscored the Spurs by 10 points in their 4 meetings during the regular season. Now they're catching a whopping 11 points in Game 2 tonight. San Antonio is 0-7 ATS in home games off a win over a division opponent this season. Take Memphis.
|
04-16-17 |
Blazers v. Warriors OVER 219.5 |
Top |
109-121 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 56 m |
Show
|
7* Blazers/Warriors NBA *Total* Annihilator on OVER 219.5
The Key: The Portland Trail Blazers are forced to go small ball with the injury to Jusuf Nurkic. The Golden State Warriors prefer to play small ball and do for the majority of their games. This Game 1 has the makings of an absolute shootout. And the Blazers and Warriors are certainly used to shootouts. In fact, each of the last 7 meetings in this series have seen at least 225 combined points. That makes for a 7-0 angle backing the OVER when comparing it to the 219.5-point total in Game 1. The OVER is 18-6 in the last 24 meetings. Take the OVER.
|
04-15-17 |
Grizzlies +9.5 v. Spurs |
Top |
82-111 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 47 m |
Show
|
7* Grizzlies/Spurs Western Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Memphis +9.5
The Key: The Memphis Grizzlies want revenge on the Spurs from getting swept by them in the playoffs last year. But the Grizzlies were banged up and playing without several key players, including Mike Conley. Now they're almost fully healthy entering the playoffs with the exception of Tony Allen, but he is at the end of his career and won't be missed much. The Grizzlies limped in to the postseason because they were locked in to the No. 7 seed down the stretch, so they were more worried about getting healthy. Now I think you see them play their best basketball in the postseason, starting with Game 1 tonight. The Grizzlies went 2-2 against the Spurs this season with the home team winning all 4 meetings. But the Grizzlies only lost by 6 and 7 points in their 2 meetings in San Antonio. Memphis is 14-6 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. The Spurs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 2 days rest. The Grizzlies are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take Memphis.
|
04-12-17 |
Bucks v. Celtics -14 |
Top |
94-112 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 58 m |
Show
|
7* NBA Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston Celtics -14
The Key: The Milwaukee Bucks are locked in to the 6th seed in the Eastern Conference. As a result, they have decided to rest all of their starters tonight in Giannis Anetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, Tony Snell and Matthew Delavedova. They clearly don't care about this game. Boston can clinch the 1st seed in the East with a win, so this is a huge game for the Celtics. Bets against road dogs of 10 or more points after allowing 90 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 105 points or more are 26-5 ATS since 1996. This is a big number for a reason, but it's not big enough tonight. Take Boston.
|
04-11-17 |
Pelicans v. Lakers -2.5 |
Top |
96-108 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 42 m |
Show
|
7* NBA Western Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles Lakers -2.5
The Key: The Los Angeles Lakers are finishing strong despite cries from their fans to tank it. The have covered the spread in 5 straight while winning 4 straight outright. Now they'll only 2.5-point home favorites against a New Orleans Pelicans team that is tanking, going 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall. That is clear by the fact that they are sitting both Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins. The Pelicans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. The Lakers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Take Los Angeles.
|
04-10-17 |
Pacers -8.5 v. 76ers |
Top |
120-111 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 8 m |
Show
|
7* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month on Indiana Pacers -8.5
The Key: The Indiana Pacers are on the brink of clinching a playoff spot. They've done so by winning three straight games games by at least 15 points each over the Raptors, Bucks and Magic. They are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. This is a team that nobody wants to face right now. The 76ers are a team that everyone wants to face. They are 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games coming in and have rarely been competitive. Their laundry list of injuries has something to do with it, but they also don't want to hurt their chances of a better draft pick. The Pacers have owned the 76ers by going 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings. In fact, 6 of those wins have come by at least 11 points. Take Indiana.
|
04-09-17 |
Mavs v. Suns -2.5 |
Top |
111-124 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 1 m |
Show
|
7* NBA Western Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Phoenix Suns -2.5
The Key: The Dallas Mavericks have clearly given up at the end of the season. They are without Harrison Barnes, Jose Barea and Seth Curry today. They are just 1-7 in their last 8 games overall coming in. The Suns have gone a profitable 5-3 ATS in their last 8 games as they have remained competitive. They just blasted Russell Westbrook and the Thunder 120-99 at home. This young team is looking to finish strong. The Mavericks are just 11-28 on the road this season and getting too much respect from oddsmakers here given their situation. Take Phoenix.
|
04-08-17 |
Pacers -4.5 v. Magic |
Top |
127-112 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 5 m |
Show
|
7* NBA Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Indiana Pacers -4.5
The Key: The signing of Lance Stephenson has really given the Pacers a spark. They have played two of their best games of the season coming in, beating the Raptors 108-90 and the Bucks 104-89. Of course, they are clinging on to the 8th seed in the East, just one game ahead of the Miami Heat. That has them playing hungry basketball right now. The same cannot be said for the Orlando Magic, who are 1-5 in their last 6 games with their only win coming at home against the league-worst Brooklyn Nets. The Pacers are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 meetings with Orlando, winning by 10, 13 and 19 points, all of which have come this season. Look for that domination to continue tonight as the Pacers get the win and cover. The Magic are 11-25-1 ATS in their last 37 home games. The Pacers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 trips to Orlando. Take Indiana.
|
04-07-17 |
Wolves v. Jazz -9.5 |
Top |
113-120 |
Loss |
-115 |
9 h 37 m |
Show
|
7* NBA Situational Game of the Month on Utah Jazz -9.5
The Key: The Utah Jazz have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as they try and secure the 4th seed in the West and home court in the first round. They're up against a Timberwolves team that are just 3-9 SU & 3-9 ATS in their last 12 contests. I like this spot for the Jazz, who have had 2 days off coming in. The Timberwolves won't have anything left in the tank as this will be their 4th game in 5 days. Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns rank in the Top 10 in minutes played this season and have to be wearing down right now. The Timberwolves are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 road games, while the Jazz are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. Take Utah.
|
04-06-17 |
Bulls -5.5 v. 76ers |
Top |
102-90 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 9 m |
Show
|
7* NBA Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Chicago Bulls -5.5
The Key: The Chicago Bulls are hungry to make the playoffs. They are in a 3-way tie at 38-40 on the season with the Pacers and Heat, and only two of them can make the postseason. The Bulls have gone 4-1 in their last 5 games coming in and are playing well. The 76ers are in full-blown tank mode right now to try and get a better pick in the draft. They have lost 4 straight, including a 23-point home loss to the Nets last time out in which they gave up a ridiculous 141 points. They are essentially playing with 7 players right now due to all of their injuries to the likes of Robert Covington, Jahlil Okafor and Sergio Rodriquez. Bets against home teams who are coming off a blowout home loss by 20 points or more in April games are 39-11 ATS since 1996. The Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss. Take Chicago.
|
04-05-17 |
Cavs v. Celtics -4 |
Top |
114-91 |
Loss |
-115 |
6 h 10 m |
Show
|
7* Cavs/Celtics ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston -4
The Key: This game tonight is essentially for the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. It will be a rowdy atmosphere in Boston as they know that a win tonight will give them the best chance to make the NBA Finals. The Celtics are 6-1 in their last 7 games overall, while the Cavs have struggled down the stretch. And the spot couldn't be better for the Celtics. They come in on 2 days' rest having last played on Sunday, while the Cavs will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days. Cleveland is 1-9 ATS in road games when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back this season. The Cavs are 0-7 ATS in road games off two or more consecutive home wins this season. Take Boston.
|
04-04-17 |
Nets -1 v. 76ers |
Top |
141-118 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 57 m |
Show
|
7* NBA Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Brooklyn Nets -1
The Key: The Philadelphia 76ers are back in tank mode with three straight losses coming in by 7 points or more. They have a laundry list of injuries right now with Robert Covington, Jahlil Okafor, Sergio Rodriquez, Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons and Jerryd Bayless all out. The 76ers would do themselves a favor by continuing to lose to increase their chance of a better draft pick. It doesn't matter for the Nets because they already have to swap first-round picks with the Celtics, so they are continuing to try to win games. And they're playing their best basketball of the season as a result, going 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall. They have won 5 of their last 8 games outright. Bets on favorites revenging 2 consecutive straight up losses to opponent as a favorite, off 2 or more consecutive home wins are 52-19 ATS since 1996. Take Brooklyn.
|
04-03-17 |
North Carolina v. Gonzaga UNDER 155 |
Top |
71-65 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 37 m |
Show
|
7* UNC/Gonzaga *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 155
The Key: While most believe that guard play is the key to making a run in the NCAA Tournament, both UNC and Gonzaga have shown that good old-fashioned big men can get the job done, too. And these two teams have tremendous big men who have dominated on the boards to help their teams reach this level. I think there will be fewer second-chance opportunities than normal for both of these teams, and thus scoring will be very hard to come by. Gonzaga ranks 1st in the country in defensive efficiency. UNC hasn't been the same offensively since PG Joel Berry suffered an ankle injury, and he struggled in the Final Four. UNC is 6-0 UNDER vs. teams who allow 64 or fewer points per game this season. Gonzaga is 10-1 UNDER vs. dominant rebounding teams who outrebound opponents by 7 or more boards per game over the last 2 seasons. Take the UNDER.
|
04-02-17 |
Wizards v. Warriors UNDER 222.5 |
Top |
115-139 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 44 m |
Show
|
7* Wizards/Warriors NBA *BAILOUT* on UNDER 222.5
The Key: The Golden State Warriors have been an UNDER machine since losing Kevin Durant. They are 17-2 to the UNDER in their last 19 games overall. The oddsmakers continue to set their totals too high, which is the case again here tonight against the Wizards with a 222.5-point total. The UNDER is 10-1 in Warriors last 11 home games. The UNDER is 71-34-1 in Warriors last 106 Sunday games, including 8-1 on Sunday's this season. The UNDER is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Golden State. Take the UNDER.
|
04-01-17 |
Magic v. Nets -2.5 |
|
111-121 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 29 m |
Show
|
6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Brooklyn Nets -2.5
The Key: The Orlando Magic are in a very difficult spot here. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. They went to overtime against the Thunder and lost on Wednesday, and then last night they lost 116-117 in heartbreaking fashion at Boston. After losing to both those playoff teams, the Magic will have a hard time getting motivated to face a Brooklyn Nets squad that holds the worst record in the league. But the Nets continue to fight as they are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall. Orlando is 1-10 ATS versus teams who allow 106 or more points per game in the 2nd half of the season this season. The Nets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss. Take Brooklyn.
|
04-01-17 |
South Carolina v. Gonzaga UNDER 138 |
Top |
73-77 |
Loss |
-105 |
6 h 29 m |
Show
|
7* South Carolina/Gonzaga *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 138
The Key: Amazingly, we are getting the No. 1 (Gonzaga) and No. 2 (South Carolina) teams in defensive efficiency in the entire country matched up today in the Final Four. Both teams really get after it on that end and don't give up easy buckets. That's why it is easy to see why I'm on the UNDER in this matchup. South Carolina is 19-6 UNDER in its last 25 neutral court games with a total of 130 to 139.5. The UNDER is 25-8-1 in Gamecocks last 34 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5. The UNDER is Under is 5-1 in Bulldogs last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. The UNDER is 20-8 in Bulldogs last 28 non-conference games. Take the UNDER.
|
03-31-17 |
Rockets v. Warriors UNDER 231 |
Top |
98-107 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 41 m |
Show
|
7* Rockets/Warriors ESPN *BAILOUT* on UNDER 231
The Key: The UNDER is 16-2 in Warriors last 18 games overall. It would be 17-1 against the opening lines as the Spurs/Warriors game was bet down to 207.5 and finished 208 from an opener of 209.5. The Warriors just aren't the same offensive juggernaut without Kevin Durant, but they key has been an emphasis on defense as they've held 7 of their last 8 opponents to 100 points or fewer. These Rockets and Warriors just played on Tuesday with Golden State winning 113-106 for 219 combined points. I think we see a similar result here as this game stays well UNDER 231 combined points. The UNDER is 7-1-1 in Rockets last 98 road games. The UNDER is 7-0 in Warriors last 7 home games. Take the UNDER.
|
03-30-17 |
Cavs v. Bulls +6 |
Top |
93-99 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 52 m |
Show
|
7* Cavs/Bulls TNT *HEAVY HITTER* on Chicago +6
The Key: The Chicago Bulls have actually gone 18-0 in their last 18 Thursday TNT home games. They haven't lost since 2013 in this spot. And they are going to be hungry for a win here tonight to close in on the Pacers and Heat for one of the final two playoff spots in the East as they are 1.5 games behind both. The Cavs aren't playing well enough to warrant being 6-point road chalk here. They are just 7-10 SU & 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall. The Bulls have had 3 days off since winning 109-104 at Milwaukee on Sunday. They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings with the Cavs, winning the last two by double-digits both on the road. Cleveland is 1-9 ATS after scoring 85 points or less over the last 2 seasons. The Cavaliers are 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. The Cavaliers are 7-22 ATS in the last 29 meetings. Take Chicago.
|
03-29-17 |
Wizards v. Clippers -6 |
Top |
124-133 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 8 m |
Show
|
7* Wizards/Clippers Non-Conference *BAILOUT* on Los Angeles -6
The Key: The Los Angeles Clippers blew an 18-point lead with 5 minutes to go in their last game against the Kings on Sunday and lost 97-98. They are going to want to wipe that bad taste out of their mouths here against the Wizards. And they've had two days off since that game, while the Wizards will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after using a ton of energy to come back from 13 points down in the 4th quarter to beat the Lakers last night. The Clippers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Take Los Angeles.
|
03-28-17 |
TCU -2.5 v. UCF |
|
68-53 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 8 m |
Show
|
6* TCU/UCF NIT *CA$H COW* on TCU -2.5
The Key: The TCU Horned Frogs have been impressive in reaching the NIT semifinals. They beat Fresno by 7 and Richmond by 18 at home, and pulled off the upset at Iowa 94-92 in overtime. UCF won by 5 over Colorado, by 1 at Illinois State and by 10 over Illinois. They needed a miracle comeback to beat Illinois State and a fluke foul call in the closing seconds. The Horned Frogs are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games. That includes an upset win over Kansas in the Big 12 Tournament. Take TCU.
|
03-28-17 |
Warriors v. Rockets -1 |
Top |
113-106 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 43 m |
Show
|
7* Warriors/Rockets Western Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston -1
The Key: The Houston Rockets are in a very favorable scheduling spot here. They will be playing just their 4th game in 10 days with each of their previous three games being at home. They have won 4 straight and 7 of their last 8 coming in, and now they're ready to show the Golden State Warriors that they are for real. The Warriors have been feasting on an easy schedule during their 7-game winning streak, which has them getting too much respect from the books. But now they take a big step up in class here tonight. The Warriors are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games. The Rockets are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 vs. NBA Pacific foes. Take Houston.
|
03-27-17 |
Pelicans v. Jazz -7 |
Top |
100-108 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 1 m |
Show
|
7* Pelicans/Jazz TNT *BAILOUT* on Utah -7
The Key: The Utah Jazz have lost 4 out of 5, which will have them hungry coming into this game against the New Orleans Pelicans tonight. This will be just the 2nd game in 5 days for the Jazz, so they'll be fresh and ready to go. The same cannot be said for the Pelicans, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. Playing in the altitude in Denver last night is sure to take even more out of the Pelicans than normal. And they could be without DeMarcus Cousins tonight. The Pelicans are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games playing on no rest. Take Utah.
|
03-26-17 |
Blazers -6.5 v. Lakers |
|
97-81 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 23 m |
Show
|
6* Blazers/Lakers NBA *BAILOUT* on Portland -6.5
The Key: The Los Angeles Lakers are clearly trying to tank so they can keep their Top 3 protected pick. They are 2-14 in their last 16 games overall with numerous blowouts along the way. The Blazers have fought their way back into playoff contention as they trail the Nuggets by just one game for the 8th seed. They've done so by going 10-3 SU & 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall. The Blazers are 11-2 ATS in road games off two or more consecutive home wins over the last 3 seasons. Portland is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 road games. The Lakers are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall. The Lakers are 15-36-1 ATS in their last 52 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. Take Portland.
|
03-26-17 |
Kentucky v. North Carolina UNDER 161 |
Top |
73-75 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 3 m |
Show
|
7* NCAA Tournament Total of the Year on Kentucky/UNC UNDER 161
The Key: This 161-point total is one of the highest of the big dance thus far. These teams played a 203-point shootout back in December which is a big reason for it. But the stakes are much higher now with a trip to the Final Four on the line. I think both teams will play tight, and this will be much more of a half-court game than oddsmakers are anticipating. The Wildcats have been awesome defensively during their 14-game winning streak. They UNDER is 9-1 in their last 10 games overall. The UNDER is 7-0 in Wildcats last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take the UNDER.
|
03-25-17 |
Xavier +8.5 v. Gonzaga |
Top |
59-83 |
Loss |
-105 |
6 h 30 m |
Show
|
7* Xavier/Gonzaga Elite 8 Game of the Year on Xavier +8.5
The Key: The Xavier Musketeers are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS with three outright upsets over Maryland, Florida State and Arizona. They have had the much more difficult path to the Elite 8 than Gonzaga, which has gone 0-2-1 ATS in its three games against South Dakota State, Northwestern and West Virginia. The Bulldogs are once again laying too big of a number here as 8.5-point favorites over the Musketeers. The Musketeers are 24-5-1 ATS in their last 30 NCAA Tournament games. Xavier is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 games overall. The Musketeers are 8-1 ATS in all neutral court games this season. Take Xavier.
|
03-24-17 |
Nuggets v. Pacers -1 |
|
125-117 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 47 m |
Show
|
6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Indiana Pacers -1
The Key: The Denver Nuggets are coming off a 4-game stretch in which they faced the Clippers, Rockets (twice) and Cavaliers. Coming off their huge win over Cleveland, this is the perfect letdown spot for them. Now they're up against an Indiana team that simply doesn't lose at home, going 25-10 at home this season. The Pacers are a perfect 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss. They have alternated wins and losses dating back to the All-Star Break, and coming off a loss, this is a good situation to back them. The home team is 7-1 SU in the last 8 meetings. Take Indiana.
|
03-24-17 |
Butler +7 v. North Carolina |
Top |
80-92 |
Loss |
-103 |
6 h 47 m |
Show
|
7* Butler/UNC Sweet 16 *HEAVY HITTER* on Butler +7
The Key: The Butler Bulldogs are one of the most under-appreciated teams left in the tournament. They have cruised to victories over Winthrop and Middle Tennessee. And now they have the goods to give UNC a run for its money today. The Tar Heels were fortunate to close on a 12-0 run to beat Arkansas after trailing by 5 late last round. Butler won't go down without a fight today. The Bulldogs are 20-4-2 ATS in their last 26 NCAA Tournament games. Butler is 39-10-2 ATS in its last 51 neutral site games. The Bulldogs are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. ACC opponents. The ACC teams got 9 teams into the tournament, and there is only one left in the Sweet 16. That says a lot about how overrated the conference is as a whole, including UNC. Take Butler.
|
03-23-17 |
Raptors v. Heat -4.5 |
|
101-84 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 50 m |
Show
|
6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Miami Heat -4.5
The Key: The Miami Heat continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers despite going 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games overall. The Heat are also 38-18-1 ATS in their last 57 home games. The Raptors are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a win. Toronto will be without two starters tonight in Kyle Lowry (injury) and Serge Ibaka (suspension). The Raptors are also coming off a taxing 122-120 overtime win over the Bulls two nights ago. The Heat are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Take Miami.
|
03-23-17 |
Michigan v. Oregon +2 |
Top |
68-69 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 21 m |
Show
|
7* Michigan/Oregon Sweet 16 *HEAVY HITTER* on Oregon +2
The Key: The Michigan Wolverines have squeaked by by a combined 5 points in wins over Oklahoma State and Louisville to open the NCAA Tournament. I think their run comes to an end now. Just think what this line would have been prior to the NCAA Tournament. Oregon probably would have been a 5-point favorite, but since Michigan is the 'flavor of the month' right now, it is actually a 2-point favorite. I think it's clear that the books have the wrong team favored because they are over-adjusting for the betting public being all over Michigan. Oregon is hitting on all cylinders offensively, and it is 9-1 ATS after scoring 75 points or more in 3 straight games this season. The Ducks are 10-1 ATS versus teams who make 48% or more of their shots over the last 2 seasons. Take Oregon.
|
03-22-17 |
Hawks v. Wizards -7 |
Top |
100-104 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 4 m |
Show
|
7* Hawks/Wizards ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington -7
The Key: The Washington Wizards come in hungry for a victory after losing two straight and four of their last five. Now they host an Atlanta Hawks team that is struggling even worse, going 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in thier last four games overall, losing by 8, 12, 16 and 15 points. And the Hawks are without two starters tonight in Paul Millsap and Kent Bazemore. I don't give them much of a chance of hanging with the Wizards as a result. The Hawks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss. Take Washington.
|
03-21-17 |
Warriors v. Mavs +5.5 |
Top |
112-87 |
Loss |
-115 |
8 h 58 m |
Show
|
7* NBA Situational Game of the Month on Dallas Mavericks +5.5
The Key: The Dallas Mavericks are 8-4 SU & 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall. They are still trying to earn a playoff spot in the West and continue to fight. Now they catch the Golden State Warriors in a good spot. The Warriors will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after winning in Oklahoma City last night. Look for Steve Kerr to limit his star players' minutes here. The Warriors are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 0 days rest. The Warriors are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. The Mavericks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Dallas is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 home games. The Mavericks are 21-7 ATS revenging a same season loss this season. Take Dallas.
|
03-20-17 |
CS Bakersfield v. Colorado State -4.5 |
Top |
81-63 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 58 m |
Show
|
7* Bakersfield/Colorado State NIT *BAILOUT* on Colorado State -4.5
The Key: The Colorado State Rams are taking the NIT seriously and will certainly be motivated to get to Madison Square Garden. They beat a solid College of Charleston team 81-74 in the opener, improving to 15-4 at home this season. Bakersfield took advantage of a California team that did not want to be in the NIT, and head coach Cuonzo Martin was out and left for Missouri shortly after. The Golden Bears were disinterested, and Bakersfield wanted that game more. That won't be the case tonight. The Rams are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall. The Rams are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. Take Colorado State.
|
03-20-17 |
Nuggets +9 v. Rockets |
|
124-125 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 58 m |
Show
|
6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Denver Nuggets +9
The Key: The Denver Nuggets will be hungry for revenge from a 105-109 home loss to Houston on Saturday night. Now they get their shot at the Rockets just two days later and are catching a whopping 9 points in the rematch. The Nuggets are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games with all four of their wins coming by 13 points or more. Denver is 6-0 ATS in its last six Monday games. Houston is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games following an ATS win. Take Denver.
|
03-19-17 |
USC +6 v. Baylor |
Top |
78-82 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 26 m |
Show
|
7* USC/Baylor *HEAVY HITTER* on USC +6
The Key: The USC Trojans feel invincible right now. They have erased back-to-back double-digit leads to beat both Providence and SMU. Now they'll be brimming with confidence as they head into this matchup against Baylor. And I like the matchup for USC, which has several deadly 3-point shooters that can shoot over the top of the Bears' zone defense. Baylor is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 games off a cover a double-digit favorite. The Trojans are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 non-conference games. The Trojans are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. Big 12 opponents. Take USC.
|
03-19-17 |
Suns v. Pistons UNDER 212 |
|
95-112 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 16 m |
Show
|
6* Sunday NBA *Total* Annihilator on Suns/Pistons UNDER 212
The Key: The Phoenix Suns are completely depleted right now. They are without two of their best guards in Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight. Both Tyson Chandler and Dragan Bender are out for the season as well, while Devin Booker and Leandro Barbosa are battling injuries themselves. It's no surprise that the UNDER is 5-0 in Suns' last five games coming in. The UNDER is 4-1 in Pistons' last five games as well. They have been held to just 84.7 points per game in their last three games. The UNDER is 5-0 in Pistons last five home games. Take the UNDER.
|
03-18-17 |
Virginia v. Florida -2 |
Top |
39-65 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 40 m |
Show
|
7* East Region Game of the Year on Florida -2
The Key: The Virginia Cavaliers were fortunate to survive a 76-71 scare from UNC-Wilmington in the first round. They trailed by as many as 14 in that game, which just goes to show how poor they have been playing. Offensively, they are as challenged as they've ever been. Now they'll be up against one of the best defensive teams in the country in Florida, which allows 9 fewer points per game than its opponents average on the season. The Gators are clearly the stronger offensive squad here averaging 78.3 points per game on the season, while the Cavaliers average just 66.9. We are getting the much better team as only a 2-point favorite and one that will have a home-court edge as this game is being played in Orlando, Florida. Sign me up. The Gators are 8-2 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season. The Gators are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. Take Florida.
|
03-18-17 |
Kings v. Thunder -12.5 |
|
94-110 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 54 m |
Show
|
6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Oklahoma City Thunder -12.5
The Key: The Oklahoma City Thunder certainly won the trade deadline when they traded for Taj Gibson and Doug McDermott. These two are starting to gel with their new teammates as the Thunder have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games, winning by 10 against San Antonio, 8 against Utah, 18 at Brooklyn and 21 at Toronto. Now they play arguably the least-talented team in the entire NBA in the Sacramento Kings without DeMarcus Cousins. The Kings have won back-to-back games against disinterested Orlando and Phoenix, which has them overvalued coming into this game. The Thunder will put them away early and hold on for the cover with ease as 12.5-point favorites here. OKC is 25-9 SU & 23-10 ATS at home this season. The Thunder are 7-0 ATS in home games after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games this season. The Kings are 25-55-2 ATS in their last 82 games playing on 2 days rest. Take Oklahoma City.
|
03-18-17 |
Wisconsin v. Villanova -5.5 |
|
65-62 |
Loss |
-105 |
5 h 44 m |
Show
|
6* Wisconsin/Villanova *CA$H COW* on Villanova -5.5
The Key: The Wisconsin Badgers were fortunate to survive against VA Tech in the opener in what was a much closer game than the 84-74 final showed. The Hokies are defensively-challenged and were way undersized. But the Badgers won't have that same edge here. They'll be up against arguably the best team in the country in defending national champion Villanova. The Wildcats get after it defensively, holding opponents to just 62.6 points per game, which is 11 points per game than their opponents average on the season. Bronson Koenig made 8 3-pointers against VA Tech and the Badgers were still in a dogfight. He'll need more heroics if they are to be competitive against Villanova, and I'm just not seeing it. The Wildcats are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 vs. Big Ten foes. Take Villanova.
|
03-17-17 |
Northern Kentucky v. Kentucky -20 |
Top |
70-79 |
Loss |
-105 |
11 h 50 m |
Show
|
7* NKU/Kentucky South Region *BAILOUT* on Kentucky -20
The Key: Northern Kentucky took advantage of an easy path in the Horizon League Tournament to make the Big Dance. Valparaiso, without its best player in Alec Peters, was upset by Wisconsin-Milwaukee. Oakland was upset by Youngstown State. That left NKU playing 11-win Milwaukee in the championship game. NKU did not far well in non-conference play, losing by 15 at Illinois and by 31 at WVU. I think they get their doors blown off here by Kentucky in what will be a Wildcat-heavy fan base in Indianapolis. The Wildcats are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 neutral site games as a favorite. Take Kentucky.
|
03-17-17 |
Wolves v. Heat -4.5 |
|
105-123 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 50 m |
Show
|
6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Miami Heat -4.5
The Key: The Miami Heat continue to get no respect in the market place despite the tremendous run they've been on. They are 22-5 SU & 23-4 ATS in their last 27 games overall. They have covered six straight coming in. They will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days here and will be fresh and ready to go. The Timberwolves will be playing their 5th game in 8 days. They are 0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS in their last 3 road games, losing by 7 at San Antonio, by 7 at Milwaukee and by 13 at Boston. The Timberwolves are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The Heat are 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Take Miami.
|
03-17-17 |
USC v. SMU -6.5 |
|
66-65 |
Loss |
-105 |
4 h 60 m |
Show
|
6* USC/SMU East Region *CA$H COW* on SMU -6.5
The Key: The SMU Mustangs are 26-1 SU & 20-5-1 ATS in their last 27 games overall. One of their early-season losses came at USC, and now they'll be out for revenge in the rematch in the NCAA Tournament. USC played late Wednesday night and used a lot of effort in coming back from 17 points down to beat Providence. Now the Trojans have to play this afternoon just 1.5 days later and make the trip from Dayton to Tulsa. The Mustangs are at a huge advantage here in rest and preparation and should roll Friday. Take SMU.
|
03-16-17 |
Florida Gulf Coast +12 v. Florida State |
|
80-86 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 48 m |
Show
|
6* FGC/FSU NCAAB *BAILOUT* on Florida Gulf Coast +12
The Key: The Florida State Seminoles went 18-0 at home this season, but it has been a different story on the road. The Seminoles are just 7-8 SU & 5-10 ATS in all games played away from home this year. Florida Gulf Coast could take advantage of that inconsistency and pull off the upset here. The Eagles actually play defense, giving up just 68.8 points per game on 42.1% shooting against opponents that average 74.5 points per game and 44.3% shooting. They can fill it up offensively, too, averaging 79.4 points per game on 50.3% shooting. FGC only lost 72-81 at Baylor and 77-78 at Michigan State in non-conference play, proving it could play with a couple of great Power 5 programs. The Eagles are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 10 or more points. The Eagles are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 neutral site games. The Eagles are 30-9-1 ATS in their last 40 games overall. The Seminoles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite. Take Florida Gulf Coast.
|
03-16-17 |
Thunder v. Raptors -2.5 |
|
123-102 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 33 m |
Show
|
6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Toronto Raptors -2.5
The Key: I like this short price for the Raptors at home here Thursday. They will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days after having the past two days off following a 100-78 beat down of the Mavericks on Monday. The Raptors are 22-11 at home this season, while the Thunder are just 13-20 SU & 14-19 ATS on the road. Oklahoma City is 2-10 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams who score 106-plus points per game this season. The Raptors are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 2 days rest. The Thunder are 1-6 ATS in the last seven meetings. Take Toronto.
|
03-16-17 |
Winthrop +11.5 v. Butler |
Top |
64-76 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 38 m |
Show
|
7* Thursday NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Winthrop +11.5
The Key: Wintrhop has a legit chance to knock off Butler today. The Eagles are 26-6 this season with competitive road losses at Dayton and Florida State, and an upset win at Illinois in non-conference. Winthrop is 22-3 in its last 25 games with its three losses coming by 2, 3 and 3 points. Butler isn't exactly hitting on all cylinders heading into the NCAA Tournament with back-to-back upset road losses to Seton Hall as 8.5-point favorites and Xavier as 6.5-point favorites. The Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5. Take Winthrop.
|
03-15-17 |
Mavs +7 v. Wizards |
|
112-107 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 2 m |
Show
|
6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Dallas Mavericks +7
The Key: The Washington Wizards return home following a 5-game road trip. I always like fading teams who are coming off a long road trip because there are so many distractions at home when they get back. And the Wizards will also be playing their 6th game in 9 days here, so they are running on fumes. The Mavericks have had the Wizards' number, going 12-1 SU in the last 13 meetings, and 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Take Dallas.
|
03-15-17 |
North Carolina Central v. UC-Davis +3.5 |
Top |
63-67 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 38 m |
Show
|
7* NC Central/UC-Davis First Four *HEAVY HITTER* on UC-Davis +3.5
The Key: It's pretty clear to me that the wrong team is favored in this First Four showdown. Cal Davis played the much tougher non-conference schedule and actually held up pretty well. They also play in the tougher conference. NC Central only played one NCAA Tournament team in non-conference play, which was Northern Kentucky. Cal Davis is 10-1 ATS off 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons. Davis is 9-1 ATS versus teams who make 45% or more of their shots after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. Take UC-Davis.
|
03-14-17 |
Blazers v. Pelicans -4 |
|
77-100 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 56 m |
Show
|
6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on New Orleans Pelicans -4
The Key: The New Orleans Pelicans will be fresh tonight. This will be just their 2nd game in 6 days. The Portland Trail Blazers will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days. The Pelicans have gone 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Take New Orleans.
|
03-14-17 |
Oakland +11 v. Clemson |
Top |
74-69 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 41 m |
Show
|
7* NIT *HEAVY HITTER* on Oakland +11
The Key: Oakland hung tough in non-conference play this season. It lost to Nevada 78-82, and Nevada is an NCAA Tournament team. It lost at Michigan State by 12, and upset Georgia 86-79 at home. Clemson also beat Georgia 74-64 at home for a common opponent. I think the Golden Grizzlies are good enough to stay within double-digits of the Tigers tonight. The Golden Grizzlies are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog. Oakland is 24-8-1 ATS in their last 33 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Take Oakland.
|
03-13-17 |
Clippers v. Jazz UNDER 201.5 |
Top |
108-114 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 27 m |
Show
|
7* NBA Total of the Month on Clippers/Jazz UNDER 201.5
The Key: You don't have to dig too deep to find that this total has been inflated. Just look at the first two meetings of the season between the Jazz and Clippers. The Clippers won both meetings, 88-75 at home for 163 combined points, and 88-72 on the road for 160 combined points. Now the total has been set at 201.5 for the 3rd meeting here tonight. The Jazz only allow 93.9 points per game at home this season and play at the slowest pace in the NBA. They will control the tempo at home tonight. The Clippers are 8-1 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season. The UNDER is 16-5 in Jazz last 21 games following a loss. Take the UNDER.
|
03-12-17 |
Cavs v. Rockets -6 |
|
112-117 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 8 m |
Show
|
6* Cavs/Rockets ESPN *CA$H COW* on Houston -6
The Key: The Cleveland Cavaliers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days here. The had to fly to Detroit, Orlando and now Houston over this span. The Cavaliers have not hesitated to rest starters in these situations, and we may catch a break and have them rest either Lebron or Kyrie, or both. Either way, I still like the Rockets here because they had yesterday off. And the Cavaliers are 0-8 ATS in road games when playing back-to-back days this season. They are also 1-10 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Houston. Take Houston.
|
03-12-17 |
Cincinnati +2 v. SMU |
Top |
56-71 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 19 m |
Show
|
7* Cincinnati/SMU AAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Cincinnati +2
The Key: The Cincinnati Bearcats are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall with four straight double-digit victories. They are hitting on all cylinders right now and will be hungry to avenge their 51-60 loss at SMU in their last meeting. I haven't been all that impressed with SMU in the tournament thus far as they only beat ECU 81-77 as 19-point favorites and pulled away late for a 70-59 win over UCF. I think the Bearcats want this one more. The Mustangs are 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 neutral site games, and 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 neutral site games as a favorite. Take Cincinnati.
|
03-11-17 |
Arizona v. Oregon -2 |
Top |
83-80 |
Loss |
-105 |
11 h 25 m |
Show
|
7* Pac-12 Tournament Game of the Year on Oregon -2
The Key: The Oregon Ducks played before the Arizona Wildcats yesterday. Arizona played the late game against UCLA and will be the more fatigued team here. Oregon handed Arizona its worse loss of the season, an 85-58 beat down in Eugene in their lone meeting. Now the Ducks are only 2-point favorites in the rematch. And the Ducks will be motivated here because a win would possibly get them a No. 1 seed, which would keep them in the West for the NCAA Tournament. Oregon is 8-0 ATS vs. teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game this season. Arizona is 1-12 ATS vs. good rebounding teams who outrebound their opponents by 4-plus boards per game after 15-plus games over the past two seasons. Take Oregon.
|
03-11-17 |
Wizards v. Blazers -4.5 |
|
125-124 |
Loss |
-115 |
10 h 22 m |
Show
|
6* Wizards/Blazers NBA *BAILOUT* on Portland -4.5
The Key: The Washington Wizards have to be out of gas. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, their 4th road game in 5 days, and their 8th game in 12 days overall. The Portland Trail Blazers will take advantage and run them out of the gym tonight. This will be just the 3rd game in 7 days for the Blazers. They are coming on strong in going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Washington is 31-54 ATS in its last 85 when playing its 3rd game in 4 days. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. The Wizards are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 trips to Portland. Take Portland.
|
03-11-17 |
UCF +8.5 v. SMU |
|
59-70 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 15 m |
Show
|
6* AAC Tournament *CA$H COW* on UCF +8.5
The Key: UCF has now won six straight games to improve to 21-10 on the season. This is clearly one of the most underrated teams in the country. I cashed in the Knights -2 yesterday in an 84-54 beat down of Memphis. Now they have their sights set on upsetting the No. 1 seed in SMU, which only won 81-77 over ECU as 19-point favorites yesterday and doesn't seem to be taking this AAC Tournament too seriously. The Mustangs can afford a loss and are still in the NCAA Tournament, while UCF is playing for its season. The Knights are 6-0 ATS in all tournament games over the last 3 seasons. The Knights are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as an underdog. The Mustangs are 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 neutral site games as a favorite. Take UCF.
|
03-10-17 |
Wizards v. Kings +8 |
|
130-122 |
Push |
0 |
10 h 11 m |
Show
|
6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Sacramento Kings +8
The Key: The home team has dominated this series between Washington and Sacramento. In fact, the home team has not only gone 7-0 straight up in the last 7 meetings, but also 7-0 against the spread. And the Wizards haven't done well in the road favorite role, either. Washington is 0-7 against the spread in its last 7 road games when facing a team with a losing home record. Take Sacramento.
|
03-10-17 |
Ole Miss v. Arkansas -4.5 |
|
72-73 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 7 m |
Show
|
6* SEC Tournament *CA$H COW* on Arkansas -4.5
The Key: Arkansas has the advantage of not playing yesterday and this being their first game of the SEC Tournament. Ole Miss didn't get that same luxury as they had to play yesterday in an 86-74 win over lowly Missouri. The Razorbacks keep coming out you with their pressing, attacking style, which is going to make their rest advantage even greater here today. Arkansas beat Ole Miss 98-80 at home in their lone meeting this season. Ole Miss is 1-7 ATS off two straight ATS wins this season. The Razorbacks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall, including 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Take Arkansas.
|
03-10-17 |
Memphis v. UCF -2 |
Top |
54-84 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 2 m |
Show
|
7* AAC Tournament Game of the Year on UCF -2
The Key: UCF won 5 straight games to close out the regular season and improve to 20-10 on the year. This is one of the most underrated teams in the country. And based off their first two meetings with Memphis this season, the Knights are clearly the superior team. They only lost 70-65 at Memphis, but got their revenge with a 72-57 blowout home victory. The Tigers are 0-6 ATS vs. teams who outrebound their opponents by at least 7 boards per game over the past 2 seasons. Take UCF.
|
03-09-17 |
Clippers v. Grizzlies -2.5 |
|
114-98 |
Loss |
-103 |
8 h 14 m |
Show
|
6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Memphis Grizzlies -2.5
The Key: The Memphis Grizzlies are hungry for a victory after losing 3 in a row coming into this game. Now they've had two days off since their upset home loss to Brooklyn on Monday. The Clippers don't have the same luxury. They'll be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days here. This situation couldn't favor the Grizzlies more, and I expect them to roll at home tonight. The Clippers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 0 days rest. The Grizzlies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games. The Grizzlies are 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings. Take Memphis.
|
03-09-17 |
Indiana v. Iowa +2 |
|
95-73 |
Loss |
-105 |
6 h 29 m |
Show
|
6* Big Ten Tournament *CA$H COW* on Iowa +2
The Key: Iowa has fought its way into the NCAA Tournament discussion by going 4-0 in its final 4 games of the regular season. The Hawkeyes have added huge upset road wins over Maryland and Wisconsin to their resume during this stretch. Now they need a win over Indiana to get in, and that shouldn't be too hard considering the Hoosiers have won just 3 of their last 11 games overall. The Hawkeyes are 17-7 ATS in the last 24 meetings, which includes a 96-90 win over Indiana this season. Take Iowa.
|
03-09-17 |
Rice v. UTEP +1.5 |
Top |
76-86 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 59 m |
Show
|
7* Conference USA Game of the Year on UTEP +1.5
The Key: The UTEP Miners have quietly gone 12-2 SU & 12-1-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall after losing 12 in a row prior to this streak. Tim Floyd may be doing the best coaching job in the country. Now the Miners are underdogs to a Rice team that they beat 79-71 as 8-point road dogs during this streak. The Miners are 12-0 ATS in their last 12 games overall and will cover their 13th straight game here this afternoon. Take UTEP.
|
03-08-17 |
DePaul +10 v. Xavier |
|
64-75 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 3 m |
Show
|
6* Big East Tournament *CA$H COW* on DePaul +10
The Key: This is a rematch from the final game of the regular season in which Xavier beat DePalu 79-65 on the road. The Musketeers also won 72-61 at home over the Blue Demons in their previous home meeting. So the Blue Demons have at least been competitive in this series this season, and I think they stay within double-digits in the 3rd meeting in the Big East Tournament. Xavier had lost 6 straight prior to that win over DePaul. And the Musketeers are just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games overall. DePaul is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 contests. DePaul is 7-1 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference opponent this season. Xavier is 1-10 ATS off a road game this season. Take DePaul.
|
03-08-17 |
Jazz v. Rockets -7 |
|
115-108 |
Loss |
-107 |
8 h 18 m |
Show
|
6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Houston Rockets -7
The Key: The Utah Jazz are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games. They lost by 27 at home to Minnesota, only won by 1 at Sacramento and narrowly beat the Pelicans by 5 at home. They also lost by 3 at Oklahoma City and beat lowly Brooklyn by 15 at home. This team is not playing well at all right now, and now they have to take a step up in class and face the Rockets. The Jazz have some serious injury concerns as both Derrick Favors and Shelvin Mack are out, while George Hill and Joe Johnson are questionable. Utah is 0-7 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. It is losing by 11.1 points per game on average in this situation. Take Houston.
|
03-08-17 |
Pistons v. Pacers -4 |
Top |
98-115 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 18 m |
Show
|
7* Pistons/Pacers ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Indiana -4
The Key: The Indiana Pacers are 21-10 at home this season and own one of the better home-court advantages in the NBA. The Detroit Pistons are just 11-20 SU & 12-19 ATS on the road this season. I think this is a very short price to be laying with the Pacers tonight. The Pacers own the Pistons, going a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. They won 105-84 in their lone home meeting with the Pistons this season. Look for them to win and cover their 6th in a row against Detroit. Take Indiana.
|
03-07-17 |
St. Mary's +5.5 v. Gonzaga |
Top |
56-74 |
Loss |
-115 |
9 h 33 m |
Show
|
7* St. Mary's/Gonzaga ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on St. Mary's +5.5
The Key: The St. Mary's Gaels want revenge on Gonzaga after losing the first two meetings of the season to the Bulldogs. I think they get that revenge in the WCC Championship Game tonight as 5.5-point dogs. It's tough to beat a team three times, and the Gaels have been playing their best basketball coming in. They are 6-0 SU & 4-0-2 ATS in their last six games overall. They have won all six games by at least 13 points, including a 23-point win over Portland and a 31-point win over BYU in their first two games of this conference tournament. That's the same BYU team that just recently upset Gonzaga 79-71 as 20.5-point dogs on the road. The Bulldogs only won 77-68 over Santa Clara as 23.5-point favorites in the semifinals. Take St. Mary's.
|
03-06-17 |
BYU v. St. Mary's -7 |
|
50-81 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 22 m |
Show
|
6* BYU/St. Mary's ESPN 2 *BAILOUT* on St. Mary's -7
The Key: St. Mary's has dominated BYU in both meetings this season, winning by 13 points at home and by 13 points on the road. They were up by 25 at BYU in the second half on February 18th before taking their foot off the gas late. Now they are only being asked to lay 7 points in the WCC Tournament semifinal. The Gaels will be focused for this game as they desperately want a rematch with Gonzaga in the Championship Game. They have gone 12-1 SU & 9-3 ATS in all road games this season. The Cougars are 4-25 ATS in their last 29 neutral site games as an underdog. The Gaels are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5. Take St. Mary's.
|
03-06-17 |
Rockets v. Spurs UNDER 222 |
Top |
110-112 |
Push |
0 |
9 h 37 m |
Show
|
7* NBA Western Conference Total of the Year on Rockets/Spurs UNDER 222
The Key: Oddsmakers have really inflated this total tonight between the Rockets and Spurs when you consider how the first 3 meetings this season went down. The UNDER is 3-0 in the first 3 meetings with combined scores of 200, 206 and 202 points. The highest total set for any of those games was 213.5, and now the total has been set all the way up at 222 for the 4th and final meeting. There is a ton of value with the UNDER to say the least in this game, especially with the way the Spurs play and will control the tempo at home. The Spurs and their last 3 opponents have combined for 199, 199 and 187 points. And the last 2 games both went into overtime against the Pelicans and Timberwolves, so they were even more low-scoring than those scores indicate. The UNDER is 7-2 in Spurs last 9 games overall. Bets on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (HOUSTON) - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG in the 2nd half of the season are 32-6 over the last 5 seasons. Take the UNDER.
|
03-05-17 |
Warriors v. Knicks +10.5 |
Top |
112-105 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 21 m |
Show
|
7* Warriors/Knicks ABC *HEAVY HITTER* on New York +10.5
The Key: The Golden State Warriors are way overvalued in the betting markets right now. They are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall and come in on their first two-game losing streak of the season. The culprit for this skid is the fact that Kevin Durant was lost with a knee injury, and they have dropped the two games since his absence. Now they'll be playing their 4th straight road game and are being asked to lay 10.5 points on the road to the New York Knicks. The Knicks haven't quit as their are 2-3 since the break with two of their losses coming by a combined 4 points, and the other being a double-digit loss on the road at Cleveland. New York is 12-2 ATS in home games off a division game over the last 2 seasons. The Warriors are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Golden State is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 Sunday games. The Knicks are 19-10 ATS off an ATS loss this season. Take New York.
|
03-04-17 |
Raptors v. Bucks +2 |
|
94-101 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 18 m |
Show
|
6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Milwaukee Bucks +2
The Key: Both the Toronto Raptors and Milwaukee Bucks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here. The difference is pretty simple, though. Milwaukee will be staying at home after beating the Clippers 112-101 at home last night. Toronto is the one that has to travel all the way from Washington DC after a 114-106 road win over the Wizards last night. And the Raptors will be playing their 5th game in 7 days here, so they won't have much left in the tank, especially with Kyle Lowry out with injury making them short-handed at the PG position. Take Milwaukee.
|
03-04-17 |
Seton Hall +8.5 v. Butler |
Top |
70-64 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 43 m |
Show
|
7* Big East Game of the Month on Seton Hall +8.5
The Key: The Seton Hall Pirates are on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament. Just like last year, when they heated up down the stretch and won the Big East Tournament, the Pirates are hitting on all cylinders to close the 2016-17 campaign again. The Pirates have won 3 straight and 6 of their last 8 games overall. Butler is in a flat spot after back-to-back huge road wins over Villanova and Xavier. I think the Bulldogs are also being overvalued now off those two wins being asked to lay 8.5 points to the Pirates today. Seton Hall is 14-3 ATS after allowing 60 points or less over the last 3 seasons. The Pirates are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog. Take Seton Hall.
|
03-03-17 |
Celtics v. Lakers +8 |
Top |
115-95 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 27 m |
Show
|
7* Celtics/Lakers NBA *BAILOUT* on Los Angeles +8
The Key: The Boston Celtics are in a massive letdown spot here Friday night. They are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 103-99 home victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday night. Now the Celtics will be feeling 'fat and happy' following that victory, and I don't expect them to give the Los Angeles Lakers their full focus. That's going to make it difficult to cover this 8-point spread on the road. The Lakers have taken this rivalry very seriously, going 5-3 SU & 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. These teams just played on February 3rd with the Celtics winning 113-107 as 11-point favorites, which also places the Lakers in revenge mode. This is just a great situation here to back the home dog. Take Los Angeles.
|