7* Rays/Dodgers Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles -170

The Key: Clayton Kershaw gets a bad rap for previous playoff failures.  You know he will be pitching with a chip on his shoulder.  And he has held up well in these playoffs thus far with a 3.32 ERA in 3 starts.  He has a 2.44 ERA in all starts this year and remains one of the most dominant starters in baseball.  This line his warranted with the Dodgers big favorites due to their edge on the rubber.  Tyler Glasnow has a 4.23 ERA in 15 starts this year and a 4.66 ERA in 4 postseason starts.  The Dodgers have the way better lineup as well and are coming in sky high in confidence after coming back from 3-1 down to beat the Braves last series.  Take Los Angeles.

7* Chiefs/Bills MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo +5

The Key: This was only going to be about a 1-point spread before the Bills played the Titans on Tuesday.  Well, the Bills lost that game 16-42, but it was a misleading final score. The Bills actually outgained the Titans by 36 yards in that game but gave it away with turnovers.  Now the Bills come back as 5-point home dogs to the Chiefs, which is a 4-point adjustment.  The price is right to back the Bills now.  The Chiefs were exposed last week in their 32-40 loss to the Raiders, and there was nothing fluky about it.  The Raiders gashed the Chiefs for 490 yards and outgained them by 77 yards.  Speaking of gashed, the Chiefs are giving up 158 rushing yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry.  The Bills can run the football and keep Patrick Mahomes off the field, which is a great game plan.  And Buffalo can match Kansas City score for score offensively as these offenses have put up similar numbers.  The Bills are averaging 27.8 PPG and 401.8 YPG while the Chiefs are putting up 29.8 PPG and 407.2 YPG.  This is a much closer game than this 5-point spread would indicate, and you have to give the Bills some home-field advantage here too.  Take Buffalo.

7* AFC South Game of the Year on Houston Texans +3.5

The Key: This is a terrible situation for the Tennessee Titans.  They are coming off a huge win Tuesday against the Buffalo Bills.  It was a misleading 42-16 final because the Bills actually outgained them by 36 yards but gave the game away with turnovers.  And now the Titans are working on an extra short week having to get ready for another game Sunday.  They won’t be ready, and keep in mind they were fortunate to win their first 3 games of the season against some bad teams.  They beat the Jaguars (33-30), Vikings (31-30) and Broncos (16-14) by a combined 6 points.  Those 3 teams are a combined 3-11 on the season.  The Texans were rejuvenated with the firing of head coach Bill O’Brien last week.  Romeo Crennel took over and led them to a 30-14 win over the Jaguars.  Their offense racked up nearly 500 total yards in the win.  That Houston offense should be able to do whatever it wants to against a Titans defense giving up 409.3 YPG and 6.3 YPP on the season.  And the Texans need this game more if they want to stay alive in the division with the Titans being 4-0 and the Texans being just 1-4.  The Texans have played the much tougher schedule though with their 4 losses coming to the Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers and Vikings.  They are undervalued right now because of that tough schedule.  Take Houston.

7* SEC Game of the Year on South Carolina +3.5

The Key: South Carolina played both Tennessee and Florida tough in 2 losses.  They were only outgained by a combined 34 yards by those two teams.  Then they blitzed Vanderbilt 41-7 last week.  And now they will take down Auburn, who are fortunate to be 2-1 instead of 0-3.  The Tigers were outgained by 60 yards by Kentucky and needed a last-second field goal to beat terrible Arkansas.  They also lost by 21 to Georgia.  The Gamecocks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games off a win by 21 points or more against an SEC opponent.  Take South Carolina.

7* SMU/Tulane NCAAF Friday Night Lights on SMU -6

The Key: SMU is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS this year and one of the best Group of 5 teams in the country.  They beat the best Group of 5 team last year in Memphis 30-27 last time out and now have had 2 weeks to get ready for Tulane.  The Green Wave are 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS and fortunate to be 2-2.  They had to come back from a 24-7 deficit to beat lowly South Alabama 27-24 in their opener.  Then they lost to a bad Navy team 24-27 before beating terrible Southern Miss.  They lost 31-49 last week to Houston despite being +5 in turnovers.  They were outgained 211 to 476 by the Cougars in that defeat.  QB play gives SMU a huge edge here.  Former Texas transfer Shane Buechele is in the 2nd season in Sonny Dykes’ system.  He is completing 69.1% of his passes for 1,326 yards with 10 touchdowns against only 2 interceptions.  Tulane has one of the worst QB situations in college football as both Keon Howard and Michael Pratt have been terrible.  The Green Wave are completing just 43.6% of their passes for 146 yards per game and 5.8 per attempt on the year.  And they lost their top 2 running backs in Tyjae Spears and Corey Dauphine to season-ending injuries, so their offense is in a world of hurt right now.  SMU is going to get its points, and I just don’t think Tulane can keep up with their suspect offense. Take SMU.

7* Dodgers/Braves Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles -1.5 (-139)

The Key: Clayton Kershaw is back healthy here after back spasms kept him out of his Game 2 start.  That’s great news for the Dodgers considering Kershaw is 7-0 with a 1.49 ERA in 14 lifetime starts against the Braves having never lost to them.  The Dodgers just put up a 15-spot in Game 3 after scoring 7 runs in the final 3 innings of Game 2.  They are hot at the plate and have their ace on the rubber tonight.  That’s a winning combination.  Take Los Angeles on the Run Line.

7* NLCS Game of the Year on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-115)

The Key: The Los Angeles Dodgers haven’t lost 3 in a row all season.  They aren’t about to start now.  They have a big edge on the rubber with Urias over Wright tonight and it will show as the Dodgers win this game by 2 runs or more.  The Dodgers are 47-19 in their last 66 games off a loss and a perfect 4-0 off 2 consecutive losses in 2020.  They win with room to spare in Game 3 tonight to get back into this series.  Take Los Angeles.

7* Bills/Titans AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo -3

The Key: The Buffalo Bills are better on both sides of the football in this matchup with the Tennessee Titans.  While the Bills have pretty much dominated and led almost the entire way during their 4-0 start, the Titans have not looked near as dominant in their 3-0 start.  Their 3 wins came against teams who are a combined 3-11 and they came by a combined 6 points with a 2-point win over Denver, a 3-point win over Jacksonville and a 1-point win over Minnesota.  The Titans gave up an average of 422.3 YPG against those 3 offenses and now have to face a dangerous Bills offense that averages 30.8 PPG and 409.8 YPG this year.  The Titans have been shredded on the ground for 166 RYPG and 5.8 YPC.  The Bills should be able to move the football at will on them either on the ground or through the air.  Bets against dogs of 3.5 to 10 points who allowed 30 points or more in 2 straight games against a team that scored 17 points or more in the first half of 2 consecutive games are 26-6 ATS since 1983.  The Bills are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as favorites.  Buffalo is 8-2-2 ATS in its last 12 road games.  Tennessee is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 home games.  Take Buffalo.

7* Chargers/Saints MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles +8

The Key: Los Angeles rookie QB Justin Herbert has been awesome in his 3 starts this season.  He is completing 72% of his passes and averaging 310.3 passing yards per game.  With him under center, the Chargers have a good chance of going on the road and knocking off the New Orleans Saints this week, who have a ton of key injuries on both sides of the ball.  And the Chargers have a pretty underrated defense with Bosa and Ingram leading the way as pass rushers.  Herbert and that defense have been keeping Los Angeles in games this season as all 4 of their games have been decided by 7 points or fewer.  The Chargers are 33-15-4 ATS in their last 52 games as road underdogs.  The Saints are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as home favorites.  Take Los Angeles.

7* AFC West Game of the Year on Las Vegas Raiders +13

The Key: The Raiders have looked very good against a very tough schedule this year.  They are 2-2 but could easily be 4-0.  They beat the Panthers on the road in Week 1, upset the Saints at home in Week 2, and then lost to the Patriots and Bills.  But they had their chances to win both of those games as they were only outgained by 31 yards by the Patriots and outgained the Bills by 46 yards.  I liked the fire I saw from QB Derek Carr after that loss to the Bills saying he’s tired of losing, and this team is too good for this.  Look for the Raiders to give the Chiefs a run for their money this week.  This is a tough scheduling spot for the Chiefs.  They are coming off 2 straight huge Monday Night Football wins over the Ravens and Patriots.  They were outgained by 34 yards by the Patriots last week, who were playing without Cam Newton too.  And now they are on a short week here.  You’re paying a tax to back the Chiefs now, and the tax is too steep this week.  Take Las Vegas.

7* Big 12 Game of the Month on Kansas State +9

The Key: The Kansas State Wildcats are now 2-0 in Big 12 play.  They upset Oklahoma on the road as 28-point dogs and handled their business in a 31-21 win over Texas Tech at home.  Now the Wildcats continue to lack the respect they deserve as 9-point dogs at TCU.  The Horned Frogs are getting respect because they upset Texas on the road.  But Texas trailed Texas Tech by 15 points with under 3 minutes left in regulation, so they aren’t very good.  Kansas State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games as road dogs.  The dog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 matchups.  The Horned Frogs are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games off an upset win as a road dog.  The Wildcats are 41-20-1 ATS in their last 62 games as underdogs.  Take Kansas State.

7* Heat/Lakers Game 5 *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +7.5

The Key: The Miami Heat just got back Bam Adebayo from injury.  They gave won Game 3 outright as 9-point dogs and gave the Lakers all they could handle in Game 4 in a 6-point loss.  And now they are catching 7.5-points in Game 5, which is too much.  The Lakers are not the better shooting team in this series, but they have somehow overcome the odds and outshot the Lakers from beyond the arc.  They have 59 made 3-pointers while the Heat only have 45 for the series.  You’d think that would even out as the series goes on.  Maybe this is finally the game where the Heat make more 3’s than they do.  Either way, they will fight scratch and claw for 4 quarters to try and stay alive, and that should be good enough to stay within the number tonight and possibly win outright.  Take Miami.

7* Bucs/Bears NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Tampa Bay -3.5

The Key: The Tampa Bay Bucs are averaging 32.3 PPG in their last 3 games, all victories by 7 points or more.  And they have a huge edge on offense here over the hapless Bears, who can’t decide whether Nick Foles or Mitch Trubisky is the man to lead their offense.  They have a good defense, but their offense just isn’t good.  They only managed 3 points for the first 58 minutes against the Colts last week in Foles’ first start with the team.  And it’s not going to get much easier against this improved, fast Tampa Bay defense tonight.  The Bears are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games against a team with a winning record.  Their 3 wins this year came against the Lions, Giants and Falcons, three teams that are a combined 1-11.  Take Tampa Bay.

7* MLB Total of the Week on Yankees/Rays OVER 8.5

The Key: The New York Yankees and their opponents have combined for 12 or more runs in all 4 postseason games and an average of 14.5 RPG.  The Yankees have a dangerous lineup now that everyone is back healthy and they have just been pounding the ball led by Giancarlo Stanton, who has 5 HR in 4 games.  The Rays have also shown some life offensively with a combined 18 runs scored in their last 3 games.  And they should get after Masahiro Tanaka, who has a 7.20 ERA in his last 3 outings.  Tanaka has yielded 7 earned runs and 3 homers in 10 innings in his last 2 starts against the Rays this year.  Charlie Morton has a 4.32 ERA in 12 lifetime starts against the Yankees.  Morton sports a 4.74 ERA in 9 starts this year.  Take the OVER.

7* Heat/Lakers Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +7.5

The Key: The Miami Heat showed their resiliency by winning Game 3 outright as 9-point underdogs, 115-104.  Jimmy Butler had a 40-point triple double and willed this team to victory.  And now the Heat should be getting Bam Adebayo back from injury from Game 3. The Lakers made more 3-pointers than the Heat for a 3rd straight games, which was very unlikely when you consider the Heat are a great shooting team while the Lakers are a terrible one.  It’s now 45 to 34 the edge in 3-pointers made for the Lakers in this series.  Look for the Heat to narrow that gap in Game 4 tonight and come away with a cover and possibly another outright victory.  Take Miami.

7* Falcons/Packers MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta +7

The Key: The Atlanta Falcons are desperate for a win after opening 0-3 this year.  I like backing desperate teams.  They should be 2-1 as they blew a 15-point lead against the Cowboys and a 16-point lead against the Bears both in the 4th quarter.  But since they are 0-3 we are getting a good price on them.  The Packers are 3-0 and need to be faded this week, especially since Aaron Rodgers may not have Devante Adams and Allen Lazard.  Lazard is for sure out, while Adams sat out last week and is questionable with a hamstring. The Falcons are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as underdogs.  The Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.  This is the role they are good in.  Take Atlanta.

7* Heat/Lakers Game 3 *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +9.5

The Key: The Miami Heat will be laying it all on the line tonight.  This is a must-win after falling behind 0-2 in this series.  And this has been a resilient team all year as they have gone 23-8 ATS following a loss this season.  The Lakers have made 31 3-pointers in this series while the Heat have only made 22.  That’s really the difference in the series, and it has been a big upset thus far because the Heat are the way better shooting team when you look at their numbers compared to the Lakers coming into this series.  It will even back out tonight as the Heat have their best shooting game of the series.  Take Miami.

7* SEC Game of the Month on Vanderbilt +21

The Key: Vanderbilt showed they are going to have one of the best defenses in the SEC when they only lost 12-17 to Texas A&M as a 31.5-point dog last week.  They returned all 11 starters on D, and Pro Football Focus actually graded their D-Line as the best unit in the country after that performance.  LSU’s defense was shredded for 44 points and 623 passing yards in their upset loss to Mississippi State last week.  This is an LSU team that lost 15 players to the NFL in the offseason.  That’s simply irreplaceable.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 matchups.  The Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against a team with a losing record.  Take Vanderbilt.

7* NBA Finals Game of the Year on Miami Heat +10

The Key: The Miami Heat are catching double-digits against the Lakers tonight and they shouldn’t be.  This is a huge game for them in this series.  And this is a 5.5-point adjustment from Game 1 where the Heat were +4.5 dogs to close.  I realize Adebayo and Dragic are unlikely to play, but the Heat have the depth to overcome it.  They can go small and give the Lakers some problems.  They are the best shooting team in the NBA from the 3-point line which is a big reason why they have made it this far.  But the Lakers won the 3-point line in Game 1, which is a huge upset.  The Lakers were 15-of-38 while the Heat were only 11-of-35.  Look for a role reversal here.  The Heat shoot 37.4% from 3 on the season and the Lakers only shoot 35% as one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the NBA.  The Heat are 35-15-2 ATS in their last 52 games off an ATS loss.  Take Miami.

7* Broncos/Jets AFC *Total* Annihilator on OVER 40.5

The Key: Both the New York Jets and Denver Broncos have been up against some very good defenses this season.  The Jets have faced the Bills, 49ers and Colts while the Broncos have faced the Titans, Steelers and Bucs.  This is the chance for both offenses to open things up against the worst defenses that they will have faced yet.  The Broncos give up 23.3 PPG and 380 YPG and have injuries all over their defense, most notably to Miller, Casey and Bouye.  The Jets give up 31.3 PPG and 372 YPG and have just been gashed defensively.  This is a very low total for today’s NFL and there’s definitely some value with the OVER.  Take the OVER.

7* Heat/Lakers Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +5

The Key: The Miami Heat are 12-3 SU & 12-3 ATS in the postseason.  They play great defense, have tremendous shooting, and have the go-to guy in Jimmy Butler to get it down down the stretch when the games are tight.  They match up well with the Lakers because they have guys who can handle Anthony Davis and LeBron James defensively.  And the Lakers just don’t have the depth outside those two superstars to match up with the Heat.  This line is way off in Game 1 tonight with the Heat catching 5 points.  Take Miami.

7* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Minnesota Twins -160

The Key: The Minnesota Twins have edges everywhere over the Houston Astros, who got into the playoffs with a losing 29-31 record.  They especially have the edge on the rubber tonight with Kenta Maeda over Zack Greinke.  Maeda is 6-1 with a 2.70 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in 11 starts this year, and 3-0 with a 1.91 ERA and 0.55 WHIP in 5 home starts.  Zack Greinke is 3-3 with a 4.03 ERA in 12 starts, 0-2 with a 4.28 ERA in 5 road starts and 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA in his last 3 starts.  Greinke is 4-9 with a 4.65 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 20 lifetime starts against the Twins.  The Twins are 23-7 at home this year.  The Astros are 6-20 in their last 26 road games.  Take Minnesota.

7* Chiefs/Ravens MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Baltimore -3.5

The Key: The Baltimore Ravens have blown the doors off their first 2 opponents with a 38-6 win over Cleveland and a 33-16 win at Houston.  The Kansas City Chiefs also beat the Texans 34-20, but they only outgained them by 9 yards in that contest.  And the Chiefs were outgained by 65 yards last week in a fortunate 23-20 (OT) win over the Chargers in which they gave up 479 total yards to rookie QB Justin Herbert and company.  The Ravens have lost their 2 matchups with the Chiefs by a combined 8 points over the last 2 seasons. It’s revenge time here as the Ravens prove they are the best team in the AFC Monday night.  Take Baltimore.

7* Cowboys/Seahawks NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Dallas +5

The Key: Seattle’s defense is way too poor to trust the Seahawks to be laying 5 points to the Dallas Cowboys, who have one of the best offenses in the NFL.  That was on display last week when the Cowboys racked up 40 points and 570 total yards on the Falcons.  The Seahawks give up 27.5 PPG and 485 YPG this season.  The Cowboys are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 road games after trailing at halftime by 14 points or more last game.  Take Dallas.

7* ACC Game of the Month on Virginia -4

The Key: Virginia has 15 starters back from a team that beat Duke 48-14 last year.  Duke lost by 14 to Notre Dame and by 20 to Boston College to start the year, so it’s clear the Blue Devils aren’t any better than they were last season.  This is a very short number for the defending Coastal Division champs to be laying to open their season.  Take Virginia.

7* Heat/Celtics Game 5 *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston -3

The Key: The Boston Celtics have responded every time they’ve had some adversity.  They won Game 7 against the Raptors, and they won Game 3 after falling into an 0-2 hole to the Heat.  With their season on the line tonight they will respond again.  The Celtics are 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 playoff games as a favorite.  Boston is 7-1-1 ATS in its last 9 games off an ATS loss.  The Celtics are 18-9 ATS off a SU loss this season.  The Celtics are 20-11 ATS when revenging a loss this year.  Take Boston.

7* Dolphins/Jaguars AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +3

The Key: The Miami Dolphins hung 28 points on the Buffalo Bills last week and gave them everything they could handle.  They also hung tough with the New England Patriots on the road.  They are going to be able to score at will on this awful Jaguars defense that gave up 33 points to the Titans last week and that is giving up 400 YPG this year.  The Dolphins are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games off a SU loss.  The Jaguars are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as favorites.  Bets on road dogs who gave up 335 or more YPG last year after allowing 450 or more yards in their previous game are 24-4 ATS since 1983.  Take Miami.

7* Celtics/Heat Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +3

The Key: This game is likely to go down to the wire and it’s clear the Miami Heat are better in clutch moments in these playoffs.  So I’ll trust them here catching 3 points.  They had a chance to win late in Game 3 after taking the first 2 games of this series despite shooting terribly.  The Heat shot 38.8% in Game 3 compared to 48.2% for Boston.  There won’t be that big of a disparity again, and the Heat certainly won’t shoot as poorly as they did from the 3-point line, where they were 12-of-44 (27.3%).  The Heat are 10-2 SU & 10-2 ATS in the playoffs this year.  The Heat are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 games off a loss.  The Heat are 40-18 ATS in their last 58 games playing on 3 or more days rest.  Take Miami.

7* Nuggets/Lakers Game 3 *HEAVY HITTER* on Denver +6.5

The Key: The Denver Nuggets are very comfortable being down in a series.  They gave the Lakers all they could handle in Game 2 and probably should have won, but lost at the buzzer.  They’ll come back in Game 3 with their best effort of the series.  The Nuggets are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 playoff games when trailing in the series.  Take Denver.

7* Saints/Raiders MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Oakland +5.5

The Key: All the playmakers the Raiders added in the offseason paid off in a big way against the Panthers in Week 1.  Las Vegas scored 34 points and will be a tough team to stop offensively all season.  Their defense is better than it showed against the Panthers and played well in giving up only 15 points through 3 quarters, but Carolina made a comeback in the 4th.  The Saints did not beat the Bucs as badly as the 34-23 final would suggest.  They only had 271 total yards but forced 3 turnovers and didn’t give the ball away once.  They slowed down without Michael Thomas, who suffered an ankle injury in that game and is now out this week.  There’s just no replacing what Thomas does for this offense.  He had 149 receptions for 1,725 yards and 9 TD in 2019 after having 125 receptions for 1,405 yards and 9 TD in 2018.  He is arguably the best receiver in the NFL.  Take Las Vegas.

7* AFC South Game of the Month on Jacksonville Jaguars +9

The Key: The Jacksonville Jaguars were singled-out as the worst team in the NFL in the offseason by most media outlets.  They are taking it personally.  They respond with a 27-20 win over Indianapolis as 7-point dogs in Week 1.  I was on them in that game, and I’m back on them again this week as 9-point dogs to the Tennessee Titans.  Gardner Minshew continued proving his doubters wrong, completing 19-of-20 passes against the Colts with his only incompletion being a catchable ball.  With Minshew at QB, they will be able to compete.  The Titans are over-hyped after making the AFC Championship last year.  They barely beat the Broncos 16-14 on Monday Night Football, which means they are now on a short week while the Jaguars have an extra day to get ready.  The Titans are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.  The Jaguars are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 September games.  Take Jacksonville.

7* Miami/Louisville ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on Louisville -2.5

The Key: The Louisville Cardinals have 16 starters back from a team that went 8-5 last year in Scott Satterfield’s first season coming over from Appalachian State.  They are loaded everywhere and it showed last week as they outgained Western Kentucky by 239 yards and put up 487 yards of offense.  They will now take down Miami and avenge a 27-52 loss at Miami last year.  But they outgained Miami by 47 yards in that game and never should have lost by 25.  They lost the turnover battle 3-0 which proved to be the difference.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 matchups.  The Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.  The Hurricanes are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games.  Take Louisville.

7* Nuggets/Lakers Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles -7

The Key: The Denver Nuggets are coming off their 2nd straight 7-game series.  They almost have to be running on fumes right now, at least for Game 1 of this series with the Lakers.  They did not respond well in Game 1 last series against the Clippers following a 7-game series against the Jazz.  They lost to the Clippers by 23 in Game 1.  I think the Lakers can put it on them early and pull away to a blowout victory as well.  The Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall with 4 straight wins over the Rockets by 8 points or more to close out last series.  Take Los Angeles.

7* Bengals/Browns AFC *Total* Annihilator on OVER 43.5

The Key: There are some key injuries on defense for both teams heading into this Thursday night affair.  The Browns are missing 3 starters in the secondary, and the Ravens diced them up for 38 points last week.  They also lost LB Jacob Phillips in that game and he is out this week.  The Bengals are without their best defensive player in DT Geno Atkins, plus starting S Shawn Williams.  The OVER is 4-0-1 in the last 5 matchups with combined scores of 44 or more points in all 5 games.  They combined for 46 and 56 points in their 2 matchups last year.  Take the OVER.

7* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Chicago White Sox -138

The Key: They Chicago White Sox are 22-5 in their last 27 games overall.  They have won 10 of their last 11 games coming in.  And now they have the edge on the rubber over the Twins once again today, and it’s not even close.  Lucas Giolito is 4-2 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 10 starts this year with 82 strikeouts in 60 1/3 innings.  Jake Odorizz is 0-1 with an 8.10 ERA and 1.600 WHIP in 3 starts this year for the Twins, and all 3 came against the light-hitting Royals.  The Twins are 2-8 in their last 10 road games.  The White Sox are 14-2 in their last 16 home games.  The White Sox are 26-8 as a favorite of -110 or higher this year.  Take Chicago.

7* Nuggets/Clippers Game 7 *HEAVY HITTER* on UNDER 208.5

The Key: Game 7 UNDERS are one of the best bets in the NBA.  The pressure is huge for these Game 7’s, and they tend to be played at a snail’s pace because of it.  The Denver Nuggets have played 3 Game 7’s the past 2 seasons and we saw them combine for 176 points with the Spurs, 196 with the Blazers and 158 with the Jazz.  The UNDER is 5-0-2 in Nuggets last 7 games overall.  The UNDER is 5-0-2 in Clippers last 7 games overall.  Take the UNDER.

7* Steelers/Giants NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Pittsburgh -6

The Key: The Pittsburgh Steelers did a great job of getting to 8-8 last season without Ben Roethlisberger.  They got there behind a defense that ranked 5th in total defense at 304.1 YPG and 5th in scoring defense at 18.9 PPG.  They were also 1st in sacks (54) and 1st in takeaways (38).  Rookie QB Daniel Jones had 23 turnovers last year, including 11 lost fumbles and he didn’t even play the entire season.  The Giants have a makeshift offensive line to start the season, so the Steelers will dominate the line of scrimmage defensively, and that will be the key to them winning and covering.  Big Ben just has to be decent for the Steelers to put away the Giants.  And all reports coming out of training camp is that he has great velocity on his balls and looks like the old Big Ben.  Take Pittsburgh.

7* NFL Game of the Week on Jacksonville Jaguars +8

The Key: The Jaguars have been getting trashed all offseason.  There is a lot of hype around the Colts with the addition of Philip Rivers.  That narrative has created some nice line value here to back the Jaguars catching more of a touchdown at home in their opener. Gardner Minshew had a great rookie season and should only build off of it this year.  The Jaguars are still loaded with talent on defense, and the offense isn’t that bad under Minshew.  Rivers is far past his prime and I don’t think he’ll be as good as everyone is expecting.  He had great weapons with the Chargers, and he has a downgrade in weapons with the Colts.  Take Jacksonville.

7* Saturday NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on South Alabama +11

The Key: This South Alabama team looks very promising with the way they closed out last season and now have 15 starters back.  They were competitive in every game when freshman Desmond Trotter took the reigns at quarterback.  They went toe-to-toe with Louisiana in a 27-37 loss and beat Arkansas State 34-30.  Those were 2 of the best teams in the Sun Belt last year.  Trotter has accuracy and mobility, plus smart decision making as he threw 8 touchdowns against only 2 interceptions last year.  He picked up right where he left off in the opener, leading South Alabama to a 32-21 upset win over Southern Miss as 15-point dogs.  Trotter threw for 299 yards and 2 TD while also rushing for 41 yards while leading South Alabama to 526 total yards in the win.  Tulane only has 12 starters back this year and loses it QB, top 2 receivers and top 2 RB’s from last year.  This is another game that the Jaguars have a chance to win outright, especially with a game under their belts already.  Take South Alabama.

7* Celtics/Raptors Game 7 *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston -2.5

The Key: This series is tied 3-3, but it’s clear the Boston Celtics are the better team.  They have outscored the Raptors by a combined 43 points in their 3 wins, while the Raptors have only outscored the Celtics by a combined 11 points in their 3 victories.  So the Celtics have outscored the Raptors by a total of 32 points in this series, or by an average of 5.3 PPG.  I like the price on the Celtics here as only 2.5-point favorites in Game 7.  Boston is 8-1 ATS in road games off an upset loss as a favorite this year.  The Celtics are 12-2 ATS in road games off a loss this year.  The Celtics are 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 playoff games as a favorite.  Take Boston.

7* NBA 2nd Round Total of the Year on Lakers/Rockets UNDER 219.5

The Key: We’ve seen all these playoff series get lower and lower scoring as they progress.  And this Lakers/Rockets series should be no different.  After combining for 226 points in Game 2, the Lakers and Rockets only combined for 214 points in Game 3.  And I see more of the same here in Game 4.  Houston is 21-11 UNDER off a loss this season.  Houston is 17-4 UNDER revenging a home loss over the last 2 years.  Take the UNDER.

7* NBA 2nd Round Game of the Year on Denver Nuggets +8

The Key: The Denver Nuggets won Game 2 outright as 8.5-point dogs and covered in Game 3 in a 6-point loss as 8.5-point dogs.  Oddsmakers just aren’t giving them the respect they deserve here on a neutral court as 8-point dogs again for Game 4.  This is a big game for the Nuggets to try and get back into this series and square it up at 2-2.  They will be the hungrier team and will be playing like it.  The Nuggets are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Denver is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 conference semifinals games.  Take Denver.

7* Heat/Bucks Game 5 *HEAVY HITTER* on Milwaukee +4

The Key: The Milwaukee Bucks went from being basically 5-point favorites in the first 3 games of this series to now underdogs.  They were 2.5-point dogs in Game 4 with the uncertainty surrounding Giannis.  He played and got off to a quick start before injuring his ankle again.  He didn’t play the entire 2nd half and the Bucks still won 118-115 (OT).  Now the Bucks are 4-point dogs in Game 5, basically a 9-point adjustment for likely being without Giannis, and I don’t agree with it.  The Bucks aren’t 9 points worse without him.  They actually can space the floor better because the Heat can’t sink in on Giannis like they have been doing.  Now the Heat have to play the Bucks more straight up because of all the great shooters on their team.  And the Heat have some injuries of their own that are flying under the radar as Herro, Crowder and Olynyk are all questionable to play tonight.  Giannis is also technically questionable and not officially out yet.  The Bucks will be playing with a ton of confidence tonight after pulling out Game 4 in OT and staying alive.  Take Milwaukee.

7* Celtics/Raptors Game 5 *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston -1.5

The Key: The Boston Celtics had a terrible shooting night in Game 4 and lost 93-100.  They made just 7 3-pointers compared to 17 for the Raptors.  Just shoot the ball a little better and they would have won that game.  That’s what I’m expecting to happen for them here in Game 5 as they grab back control of this series.  The Celtics are 27-12 ATS against teams with winning records this season and I trust head coach Brad Stevens to get them to respond today.  Take Boston.

7* Rockets/Lakers Game 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles -5.5

The Key: Rust has played a factor in the Lakers losing both Game 1’s in these playoffs.  They didn’t all play together in the bubble and it hurt them in their upset loss to the Blazers in Game 1 last round.  And having 6 days off prior to this series with Houston hurt them in Game 1.  The Lakers will be much sharper in Game 2 tonight and their massive advantages in this series will show through.  They actually got out rebounded by the Rockets in Game 1, which should never happen with their size.  They won’t let it happen again, and they can’t shoot it much worse than they did in Game 1.  Take Los Angeles.

7* Raptors/Celtics Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Toronto +2

The Key: The Toronto Raptors went from being favorites in the first 3 games of this series to now 2-point dogs in Game 4.  I like this price we are getting on the Raptors who have to be feeling very confident after beating the Celtics at the buzzer in Game 3 to avoid an 0-3 hole.  The Raptors just need to shoot it better and they’ll get right back in this series, which seems like an easy fix.  Toronto is shooting just 28.3% from 3-point range in this series compared to 38.7% for Boston.  The Raptors are 26-11 ATS in their last 37 games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 ATS.  The Raptors are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games.  Take Toronto.

7* Bucks/Heat Game 3 *HEAVY HITTER* on Milwaukee -5

The Key: The Miami Heat should not be getting this much respect from the books.  They were 5-point dogs in Game 1 and 5.5-point dogs in Game 2 and won both outright to improve to 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the playoffs.  But now they are back down to only 5-point dogs in Game 3, a game that the Milwaukee Bucks simply have to have.  Look for the Bucks to be the team playing with the sense of urgency here down 0-2 and for the Heat to have their worst performance of the series knowing that they have some breathing room.  I expect the Bucks to win this game with plenty of room to spare by double-digits.  Take Milwaukee.

7* Raptors/Celtics Game 3 *HEAVY HITTER* on Toronto -2

The Key: The Toronto Raptors have to win this game to get back in this series.  They are down 2-0 because Boston has shot lights out while Toronto couldn’t have been colder.  The Celtics are shooting 41.6% with 32 made 3’s in this series while the Raptors are shooting 26.3% with only 21 made 3’s.  It took an out of this world performance from Marcus Smart and his 5 3’s in the 4th quarter for the Celtics to win Game 2.  The Raptors will return the favor in Game 3 tonight.  Take Toronto.

7* Heat/Bucks Game 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on Milwaukee -5

The Key: The Milwaukee Bucks were at a huge disadvantage in Game 1 and I cashed in the Heat +5.5 because of it.  But I’m taking the Bucks in Game 1 tonight because that advantage no longer exists for the Heat.  The Heat had 7 days to get ready for the Bucks while the Bucks only had 1 day to get ready for the Heat.  But now the Bucks will be much more prepared here in Game 2 with another day of practice in between games to figure out the right strategy for the Heat.  The Bucks are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 off a loss by more than 10 points, and the Heat are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games off a win by more than 10 points.  Take Milwaukee.

7* Jazz/Nuggets Game 7 *HEAVY HITTER* on Denver ML -105

The Key: The Denver Nuggets have all the momentum now after storming back from a 3-1 deficit to win the last 2 games by double-digits.  Jamal Murray has been unstoppable, and will continue to be tonight.  The Nuggets won a Game 7 against the Spurs last year so they won’t shy from the pressure.  And all the pressure feels like it’s on the Jazz in this one.  And the Nuggets have Gary Harris back healthy now to give Donovan Mitchell another look defensively after Mitchell had torched the Nuggets before his return.  The Nuggets are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 matchups.  Take Denver on the Money Line.

7* Heat/Bucks Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +5.5

The Key: The Miami Heat went 2-0 against the Milwaukee Bucks during the regular season before the bubble.  They won 105-89 as 4.5-point home dogs and 131-126 as 11.5-point road dogs.  I’m willing to not count their 116-130 loss to the Bucks in the bubble as 10-point dogs because both Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic sat out that game, and those are their two best players.  The Bucks let the Magic hang around the entire season despite a plethora of injuries for the Magic, including to their best player in Aaron Gordon, who didn’t play the entire series.  The Heat swept the Pacers and won all 4 games by at least 9 points each.  The Bucks have their hands full with the Heat starting with Game 1 of this series.  The Heat have had the last 6 days off to prepare for Milwaukee, while the Bucks only have one day to get ready for Miami after playing on Saturday.  Take Miami.

7* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Minnesota Twins -1.5 (-126)

The Key: The Minnesota Twins have had just 2 losing streaks the entire season.  It just so happens that both are 4-game skids like the one they are currently on.  They won’t be losing a 5th straight today.  Kenta Maeda is the real deal at 4-0 with a 2.21 ERA and 0.71 WHIP in 6 starts this year.  Casey Mize clearly still has some work to do in his rookie season.  Mize is 0-1 with a 7.05 ERA and 1.83 WHIP in his 2 starts.  The Twins are 70-25 in their last 95 games against a starter with a WHIP of greater than 1.30.  The Tigers are 29-83 in their last 112 games as underdogs, including 16-58 in their last 74 games as home underdogs.  Take Minnesota on the Run Line.

7* NBA 1st Round Total of the Year on Magic/Bucks UNDER 225.5

The Key: The last 2 games in this series have seen 228 and 227 combined points after a 207-point output in Game 2.  The reason is simple.  Both the Magic and Bucks have shot lights out from 3-point range.  They have both shot at least 40% in each of the last 2 games with the Bucks 34-of-78 (43.6%) and the Magic 37-of-85 (43.5%).  I just cannot see this continuing, and as a result I love the UNDER 225.5 points in Game 5 today.  We just need a slight dip in 3-point shooting from one or both of these teams to cash this UNDER.  Take the UNDER.

7* AL Central Game of the Year on Minnesota Twins -154 (Game 1)

The Key: The Minnesota Twins have lost 2 straight games coming in.  It’s only their second 2-game losing streak of 2020, which shows how good they have been.  They’ll get right back on track today against the lowly Detroit Tigers, who are one of the worst teams in baseball once again in 2020.  Big edge to the Twins on the rubber here.  Randy Dobnak is 5-1 with a 1.78 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 6 starts this year.  Matt Boyd is 0-4 with an 8.48 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in 6 starts for the Tigers.  He has already yielded 27 runs and 8 homers in 28 2/3 innings.  Dobnak held the Tigers to one hit and zero walks in 6 innings in his only previous start against them in 2019.  Boyd is 1-1 with a 9.00 ERA in his last 2 starts against the Twins, yielding 12 earned runs and 6 homers in 12 innings.  The Twins are 70-23 in their last 93 against a starter with a WHIP of greater than 1.30.  The Twins are 53-24 in their last 77 games off a loss.  The Tigers are 19-62 in their last 81 home games.  Take Minnesota in Game 1.

7* Jazz/Nuggets Game 5 *HEAVY HITTER* on Denver +3

The Key: The Denver Nuggets are in a must-win tonight to keep their season alive.  They battled hard in Game 4 but came up 2 points short.  The Jazz shot nearly 58% as a team and attempted 23 more free throws than the Nuggets.  Only a slight improvement in both categories should have the Nuggets winning this game outright.  The Jazz are 4-16-2 ATS in their last 22 games as favorites.  Take Denver.

7* Pacers/Heat Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Indiana +6

The Key: The Indiana Pacers are a prideful team that won’t just lay down and die for the Miami Heat.  The Pacers have been in every game this series with all 3 games decided by 12 points or fewer.  And I think we are getting them at their best price of the series here as +6 dogs in Game 4.  The Heat are 10-21 ATS after scoring 115 points or more this year.  The Pacers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games off a loss.  The Heat are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games off a win.  Take Indiana.

7* Celtics/76ers Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Philadelphia +8

The Key: The Philadelphia 76ers are playing for their season today down 0-3 in this series.  They were competitive in Games 1 and 3 with a pair of 8-point losses.  And now they are 8-point dogs in Game 4 after not being more than 6-point dogs in any other game in this series thus far.  I like the price we are getting with them here.  The 76ers are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 games off 3 or more consecutive ATS losses.  Take Philadelphia.

7* NBA 1st Round Game of the Year on Indiana Pacers +5

The Key: The Indiana Pacers are in must-win mode in Game 3 after dropping the first 2 games of this series.  They were competitive in the first two games but couldn’t get it done in the 2nd half.  They will put it all together in what is essentially a win or go home game for them.  And I also expect the Heat to relax just enough with a comfortable 2-0 lead to let the Pacers have their way today.  Take Indiana.

7* Mavericks/Clippers Game 2 *BAILOUT* on Los Angeles -5

The Key: The Los Angeles Clippers will respond Friday after getting embarrassed by the Dallas Mavericks in Game 2.  It’s a Clippers team that was missing a lot of pieces during the restart, so it’s no wonder they have opened this season a bit rusty.  Look for them to put it all together in Game 3 and take back control of this series.  The Clippers are 17-5 ATS off a loss this season.  Take Los Angeles.

7* Magic/Bucks Game 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on Milwaukee -12.5

The Key: The Milwaukee Bucks were embarrassed in Game 1 by the Orlando Magic, 110-122 as 13.5-point favorites.  Now they are shorter favorites in Game 2 and I think we see a role reversal here with the Bucks dominating from start to finish.  They’ll be playing with a sense of urgency today, something they did not do in Game 1.  Milwaukee is 14-3 ATS off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite over the last 3 years.  They are coming back to win by 13 PPG on average in this situation.  The Magic are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 against a team with a winning record.  The Bucks are 31-14 ATS in their last 45 games off a SU loss.  Take Milwaukee.

7* Jazz/Nuggets Game 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on Utah +4

The Key: The Utah Jazz forced overtime in Game 1 despite shooting just 16 for 47 (34%) from 3 while Denver shot 22 for 41 (53.7%).  Look for the Jazz to pull the upset in Game 2 as the Nuggets don’t have an answer for Donovan Mitchell, who scored 57 points in the opener.  And I fully expect him to get more help from his role players in this one, especially from 3-point range.  The Jazz are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as underdogs.  Take Utah.

7* Blazers/Lakers Game 1 *BAILOUT* on Portland +6.5

The Key: The Portland Trail Blazers just had a knack for playing in close games in the restart and that will continue in Game 1 tonight.  All 9 of their games were decided by 10 points or fewer, including 7 by 5 points or less.  They have an unstoppable offense that will challenge the Lakers, who are without 2 key defenders on the perimeter in Avery Bradley and Rajon Rondo.  They’re going to have a very hard time matching up with Lillard and McCollum.  The Lakers went 3-5 SU & 1-7 ATS in the restart, and I have a hard time believing they can just flip a switch here in Game 1.  It’s going to take them a few games to gel, while the Blazers have already gelled as a team with all of the meaningful games they’ve played thus far.  The Blazers are 16-2 ATS in their last 18 games off 3 straight wins by 6 points or less.  The Blazers are 46-22 ATS in the last 68 matchups.  Take Portland.

7* 76ers/Celtics Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston -6

The Key: The Boston Celtics enter the playoffs fully healthy and ready to go for a title.  The same cannot be said for the 76ers, who lost Ben Simmons to a season-ending injury in the bubble and Joel Embiid is nursing a hand injury.  The Celtics will make easy work of the short-handed 76ers in Game 1 of this series tonight.  The Celtics are 10-1 ATS in road games off a loss this season.  Boston is 13-2 ATS when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this year.  Philadelphia is 6-22 ATS off 2 or more consecutive ATS wins over the last 2 years.  The 76ers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games off a win by more than 10 points.  Take Boston.

7* NL East Game of the Month on Philadelphia Phillies -122

The Key: I always love the angle of the pitcher facing his former team for the first time.  That will be the case for Zack Wheeler of the Phillies up against the Mets Sunday.  Wheeler is 2-0 with a 2.89 ERA in 3 starts in 2020.  He’ll be opposed by Rick Porcello, who was terrible in Boston last year and hasn’t been any better for the Mets thus far.  Porcello is 1-2 with a 5.68 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in 4 starts in 2020.  The Mets are 0-8 as underdogs of +100 to +150 this year.  The Phillies are 9-2 in their last 11 home matchups with the Mets.  Take Philadelphia.

7* Blazers/Grizzlies *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 232

The Key: There’s always more defense played in playoff games.  And given what’s at stake here for these teams with win or go home for Memphis, defense will be played at a high level.  The 1st meeting between these teams this season saw just 215 combined points.  The 2nd meeting did have 275 combined points, but that was in overtime.  I think we see a similar result to the first meeting given the situation.  Memphis is 18-5 UNDER vs. teams who score 110+ PPG in the 2nd half of the season this season.  Memphis is 12-1 UNDER in road games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the last 2 years.  Take the UNDER.

7* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (+108)

The Key: Sonny Gray has been one of the top starters in the game over the last 2 years.  Gray is 3-1 with a 2.25 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 4 starts this year with 35 strikeouts in 24 innings.  That includes 3-0 with a 0.96 ERA and 0.70 WHIP in 3 home starts.  Chad Kuhl will be making just his 2nd start of the year for the Pirates.  Kuhl is 18-20 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 64 games in MLB lifetime.  Gray is 14-1 at home when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 2 years and the Reds are winning by 3.5 RPG.  Take Cincinnati on the Run Line.

7* Blazers/Nets TNT *BAILOUT* on Brooklyn +10

The Key: The Portland Trail Blazers are getting too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.  They are 5-2 since the restart and on the verge of making the playoffs, but those 5 wins all came by 10 points or less.  In fact, all 7 of their games have been decided by 10 points or less thus far.  Brooklyn is playing too well right now to be catching this many points.  The Nets are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  Three of those wins came against playoff teams with upsets over Milwaukee as 19-point dogs, the Clippers as 9-point dogs and the Magic as 4.5-point dogs.  The Nets are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games playing on one days’ rest.  Take Brooklyn.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Miami Heat -2

The Key: The situation is a much better one for the Miami Heat than it is for the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight.  The Heat are almost at full strength with the exception of Kendrick Nunn.  The Thunder are without Schroder and likely to be without Gilgeous-Alexander, Adams and Gallinari again tonight.  The Heat should be much bigger favorites given their advantage in the health department.  The Thunder are likely to not take any chances here with their injured players.  Take Miami.

7* Blazers/Mavs TNT *HEAVY HITTER* on Portland -4.5

The Key: The Portland Trail Blazers are in 9th place, but just a half-game ahead of both Phoenix and San Antonio.  Whoever finishes 8th and 9th will be in a playoff to be the 8th seed.  This game matters a lot more to Portland than it does Dallas, which all but appears locked into 7th.  And the Mavericks could be without both Doncic and Porzingis again tonight after both sat out last game for precautionary reasons.  The Blazers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall and will continue their stellar play tonight as they make their push to make the playoffs.  Take Portland.

7* Raptors/Bucks ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Toronto +7.5

The Key: The Toronto Raptors are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS since the restart and playing with a sense of urgency.  The Milwaukee Bucks already have the top seed in the East and are not playing with a sense of urgency at all.  The Bucks are just 2-3 SU & 1-3-1 ATS in their 5 games since the restart.  Take Toronto.

7* NBA Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Memphis Grizzlies +7

The Key: No analysis Sunday.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Denver Nuggets -1.5

The Key: The Utah Jazz will be playing for a second consecutive day after falling 111-119 to San Antonio yesterday.  And it’s unsure whether Donovan Mitchell, Mike Conley and Royce O’Neale will play today.  The Jazz are already without Bojan Bogdanovic and his 20 PPG.  They aren’t very deep and will struggle against the rested Nuggets, who had yesterday off.  The Jazz are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days’ rest.  Take Denver.

7* NBA Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on New Orleans Pelicans -7.5

The Key: The Pelicans are in must-win mode trying to make the playoffs in the West.  The Washington Wizards are 0-4 since the restart and won’t be making the playoffs.  They will find it hard to be motivated from here on out.  The Wizards have lost all 4 games by 8 points or more, and that’s all it will take for the Pelicans to cover this spread tonight.  Washington hasn’t even been competitive due to all of their injuries.  New Orleans is 12-3 ATS in road games off an upset loss as a favorite over the last 2 years.  The Wizards are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games as underdogs.  The Pelicans are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after yielding more than 125 points in their previous game.  Take New Orleans.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Portland Trail Blazers -4

The Key: I like the situation for the Blazers tonight.  They are pushing to make the playoffs and playing every game like a must-win.  The Denver Nuggets are just playing for playoff positioning.  And the Nuggets will be playing for a 2nd consecutive day after a tough 132-126 win over San Antonio last night, while Portland had yesterday off.  Take Portland.

7* Nets/Celtics ESPN *BAILOUT* on Boston -8.5

The Key: The Brooklyn Nets just pulled off the biggest upset in NBA history with their 119-116 win over the Milwaukee Bucks as 19-point dogs.  The Nets are down to the last players on their bench, and the Bucks were sitting starters at crucial points in the game because they already have the No. 1 seed wrapped up.  The Nets will now be playing the second of a back-to-back, which is an even worse situation for them than most teams given how short-handed they are.  And it’s a letdown spot off such a big win.  The Celtics will be focused after starting 1-2 out of the break with losses to Milwaukee by 7 and Miami by 6.  They are playing for playoff positioning and want to keep a Top 3 seed so they can avoid Milwaukee in the 2nd round.  Boston is 9-1 ATS in road games off a loss this season.  Take Boston.

7* Rockets/Blazers TNT *BAILOUT* on Portland +4

The Key: The Portland Trail Blazers are 2 games behind the Grizzlies for the 8th seed in the West.  They need wins more than the Houston Rockets, who are simply playing for playoff positioning.  After 2 narrow wins by a combined 8 points in their last 2 games, the Rockets will run out of luck tonight.  The Blazers are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS against Houston in 2020 with a 10-point win as 8.5-point dogs and a 13-point win as 5-point dogs.  The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as favorites.  The Blazers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a winning record.  Take Portland.

7* Grizzlies/Pelicans ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on New Orleans -4.5

The Key: This is a must-win game for the Pelicans.  They have dropped their first 2 games back and sit 3.5 games behind the Grizzlies for the 8th seed.  They have to be within 4 games of the 8th place team to get a play-in game.  They catch the Grizzlies at a good time as they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and 3rd game in 4 days.  The Pelicans had yesterday off and will be plenty rested after getting blown out by the Clippers on Saturday.  The Pelicans are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS against Memphis this year winning 126-116 and 139-111.  The Pelicans are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games against a team with a losing record.  The Pelicans are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after yielding more than 125 points in their previous game.  Take New Orleans.

7* Mavs/Suns NBA *BAILOUT* on Phoenix +6

The Key: The Phoenix Suns need wins more right now as they are trying to stay alive for the 8th seed in the West.  The Dallas Mavericks are simply playing for playoff positioning.  The Suns looked great in their 125-112 win over Washington.  They had 6 players score in double figures in that win and play well together as a team.  And I like them to give the Mavericks a run for their money today.  The Suns won 133-104 as 7-point dogs in their last meeting at Dallas on January 28th.  Take Phoenix.

7* Jazz/Thunder NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma City -2

The Key: The Utah Jazz are without their 2nd-leading scorer in Bojan Bogdonavic, who averages over 20 PPG.  They were able to escape with a come from behind 106-104 win over the Pelicans in their opener.  They won’t be so fortunate against the Oakland City Thunder, who are fully healthy for the restart.  The Thunder are 19-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  Take Oklahoma City.

7* Grizzlies/Blazers NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Portland -2.5

The Key: No analysis Friday.

7* Jazz/Pelicans NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on New Orleans -2 

The Key: The Pelicans won all 3 of their scrimmages and are now 11-5 in their last 16 games overall.  They are completely healthy and loaded for this restart.  The same cannot be said for the Jazz, who are without Bojan Bogdonovic (20.2 PPG) for the remainder of the season after he had wrist surgery in May.  The Pelicans need wins more as they are on the outside looking in in terms of the playoffs.  Take New Orleans. 

7* AL Central Game of the Month on Chicago White Sox -113 

The Key: The White Sox really need a win as they are just 1-4 while the Cleveland Indians are 4-1.  Ace Lucas Giolito is here to the rescue and is the much better starter in this matchup with Zach Plesac.  Giolito is 2-2 with a 3.16 ERA in 4 lifetime starts against Cleveland.  He has pitched 14 2/3 shutout innings in his last 2 starts against them with 17 K’s.  Plesac has never beaten the White Sox, going 0-2 with a 5.25 ERA in 2 lifetime starts against them.  Take Chicago. 

7* National League Game of the Week Pittsburgh Pirates +155

The Key: The Pittsburgh Pirates want revenge after blowing a 5-1 lead in the 9th and losing in extras to the Brewers yesterday.  We are getting them at a tremendous price here Tuesday in Game 2 of this series.  Derek Holland has never lost to the Brewers as he is 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA in 2 lifetime starts against them.  Josh Lindblom makes his return to the majors after spending the last few years in Korea.  He is 5-8 with a 4.10 ERA and 1.37 WHP lifetime in the majors.  Take Pittsburgh.

7* American League *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston Astros -1.5 (-120)

The Key: Josh James is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA in 7 lifetime appearances against the Mariners.  Kendall Graveman will be making his first appearance since May 11, 2018 for the Mariners.  He went 1-5 with a 7.60 ERA in 2018.  The Astros are hitting .290 and scoring 7.0 RPG through 3 games this season behind one of the best lineups in MLB.  The Mariners are hitting .238 and scoring 3.7 RPG.  Seattle is 10-45 vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 RPG or more over the last 2 years.  It is losing by 2.4 RPG in this situation.  Take Houston on the Run Line.

7* Braves/Mets ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta +102

The Key: The Braves should not be underdogs to the Mets today.  Rick Porcello went 14-12 with a 5.52 ERA with Boston in 2019 and is on the decline.  Sean Newcomb went 6-3 with a 3.16 ERA last year for the Braves.  Newcomb is 2-2 with a 2.75 ERA in 7 lifetime starts against the Mets.  Take Atlanta.

7* Saturday MLB *Total* Annihilator on Pirates/Cardinals UNDER 9.5

The Key: I definitely got robbed on the UNDER 8.5 yesterday in the Cardinals/Pirates game.  It was 3-0 going into the 7th inning and finished with 9 combined runs.  I’m back on the UNDER 9.5 today because the fact remains that these are two of the worst lineups in baseball, especially Pittsburgh.  Adam Wainwright has allowed just 2 earned runs in 13 innings in his final 2 starts against the Pirates in 2019.  Trevor Williams gave up just 2 earned runs in 12 innings in his 2 starts against St. Louis in 2019.  Take the UNDER.

7* Friday MLB *Total* Annihilator on Pirates/Cardinals UNDER 8.5

The Key: The Pirates have arguably the worst lineup in baseball.  They aren’t going to contribute much to this total going up against Jack Flaherty.  Flaherty is 4-1 with a 1.84 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 7 lifetime starts against the Pirates.  Joe Musgrove appeared to fix some mechanical issues at the end of last season by going 3-0 with a 2.89 ERA with 32 K’s over his final 5 starts of 2019.  The one weakness for the Cardinals is their lineup as it just hasn’t produced the last few years.  They are a perfect ‘under’ team and that will prove to be the case today.  Take the UNDER.

7* SEC Game of the Month on Vanderbilt +9.5 

The Key: The Vanderbilt Commodores should not be nearly double-digit underdogs to the Arkansas Razorbacks tonight.  They beat Alabama 87-79 as 12-point road dogs and South Carolina 83-74 as 5-point home dogs to close out the season.  And they are now 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games.  Arkansas is just 4-9 ATS on the highway this year and this will basically be a road game for the Razorbacks being played in Nashville.  The Razorbacks have lost 5 straight road games by 8, 10, 14, 21 and 4 points.  Arkansas is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 games after yielding 75 or more points in 2 straight games.  They are yielding 88.7 PPG in their last 3 games and cannot be trusted to get enough stops defensively to cover this huge number.  Take Vanderbilt. 

7* Virginia Tech/UNC ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on North Carolina -4 

The Key: The North Carolina Tar Heels have won 3 of their last 4 games all by 6 points or more.  And they were competitive in their road loss at Duke over the weekend.  The Tar Heels are a dangerous team in this ACC Tournament because they finally have their best player in Cole Anthony healthy, who averages nearly 20 PPG.  They didn’t have Anthony when they lost 77-79 at Virginia Tech in their lone matchup this year.  They will avenge that loss in blowout fashion with Anthony this time.  The Hokies have lost 10 of their last 12 games overall.  Virginia Tech is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games.  The Hokies are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as underdogs.  Take North Carolina. 

7* St. Mary’s/BYU WCC *BAILOUT* on OVER 145.5 

The Key: Books have made a big mistake and set this total lower than it should be tonight. The first 2 matchups between BYU and St. Mary’s were shootouts this season, and this one should fall in line as well.  They combined for 154 points at the end of regulation in their first matchup on January 9th and followed it up with a 160-point outburst in their rematch on January 1st.  BYU is averaging 83.1 PPG in conference play this year and has topped 80 points in 8 of its last 10 games overall.  St. Mary’s is scoring 77.4 PPG on the road this year and 83.4 PPG in their last 4 games overall.  The OVER is 20-7 in Gaels’ last 27 games overall.  The OVER is 5-0 in Gaels’ last 5 against teams that win more than 60% of their games.  The OVER is 5-0 in Cougars last 5 against teams that win more than 60% of their games.  Take the OVER.    

7* Iowa/Illinois Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Illinois -3.5 

The Key: Illinois wants to avenge its 65-72 road loss at Iowa on February 2nd.  The Fighting Illini are 14-3 at home this year and were are getting them very cheap tonight.  The home team has won and covered 4 straight matchups in this series.  The Hawkeyes are 2-7 SU in Big Ten road games this year with an average loss of over 12 PPG.  Iowa is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games off a conference home loss.  The Hawkeyes are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games off a home loss.  Take Illinois. 

7* NCAAB Game of the Year on Missouri State -2.5 

The Key: The Missouri State Bears have a huge rest advantage over the Valparaiso Crusaders today.  They’ve only had to play one game in the MVC Tournament and just blitzed Indiana State 78-51 yesterday so they were able to rest their starters late.  Valpo has been in 2 dog fights with a 58-55 win over Evansville on Thursday and a 74-73 (OT) win over Loyola-Chicago Friday.  They used a ton of energy coming back from 14 points down at halftime against Loyola and obviously playing OT would have zapped even more energy out of them.  And Missouri State wants to avenge its 89-74 loss at Valpo on February 25th less than 2 weeks ago.  The Bears are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.  Missouri State is 10-0 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 60 points or less.  The Bears are 9-1 ATS in their lat 10 games off a win by 10 points or more and 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games off a win by more than 20 points.  Valpo is 1-9 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last 2 years.  Take Missouri State. 

7* Bucks/Lakers ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles -1 

The Key: The Lakers have won 9 of their last 10 games and are ready to take down the Milwaukee Bucks at home tonight and avenge an earlier road defeat to them by 7 points.  We saw the Bucks struggle in their last 2 road games losing by 16 at Miami and failing to cover a huge spread at Charlotte in an 8-point win.  The Lakers come in on 2 days’ rest while the Bucks will be playing in their 4th different city in 6 days.  Bets against road underdogs who have won 15 or more of their last 20 games with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 76-39 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take Los Angeles. 

7* Big Ten Game of the Week on Nebraska +17 

The Key: The Nebraska Cornhuskers have been a nice bet on the road this season because they are consistently catching too many points and never quit.  Despite being just 2-11 SU in all games played away from home, the Huskers have gone 9-4 ATS.  They have only beaten beaten by more than 17 points on the road 3 times, and two of those were 19-point losses.  They have hung within 6 of Indiana, 5 of Northwestern, 12 of Ohio State, 3 of Rutgers, 2 of Maryland and 12 of Illinois in Big Ten road games this season.  Michigan was just upset at home by Wisconsin 74-81 and got blown out at Ohio State 63-77 in its last 2 games.  The Huskers are 7-1 ATS in Big Ten road games this season.  Nebraska is 8-1 ATS in road games when playing just its 2nd game in 7 days this year.  The Huskers are 8-2 ATS after allowing 80 points or more this year.  Take Nebraska. 

7* Dayton/Rhode Island Atlantic 10 *HEAVY HITTER* on Rhode Island +4.5 

The Key: The Rhode Island Rams (20-8) are squarely on the bubble now after losing at home to a very good Saint Louis team on Sunday.  They easily could have been looking ahead to this game against Dayton tonight.  They want to avenge their 67-81 road loss at Dayton in which they shot just 28.8% from the field and 20% from 3-point range.  They aren’t going to shoot that poorly again at home, where they are 12-2 SU this year.  Dayton has already wrapped up the Atlantic 10 and won’t be that hungry to beat Rhode Island for a 2nd time this year.  The Rams are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games when revenging a loss.  The Rams are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games when revenging a loss where the other team scored 75 points or more.  The Flyers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games.  Take Rhode Island. 

7* Atlantic 10 Game of the Year on Richmond -5.5 

The Key: The Richmond Spiders are on the verge of making the NCAA Tournament.  They can’t afford a slip up here down the stretch of the regular season.  Richmond is 22-7 on the season, 12-4 in conference play and 13-2 at home.  The Spiders went on the road and beat Davidson 70-64 in their first matchup.  They won’t have much of a problem winning by 6 points or more in the rematch at home.  Davidson just gave up 72.3% shooting to Dayton on the road Saturday and lost by 15.  They have a problem defending, which is not a problem Richmond has.  Davidson is 5-12 SU & 4-13 ATS in all road games this year.  The Wildcats are 2-8 ATS as underdogs this season, and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road dog.  The Spiders are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.  Take Richmond. 

7* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on Atlanta Hawks -2 

The Key: The Atlanta Hawks are 8-3 SU & 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.  That includes upset home wins over the Clippers, 76ers, Heat and Nets and also a win over the Mavericks.  They have a great home court edge as fans are excited to turn out to see Trey Young and company in action.  The Memphis Grizzlies are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  This bad stretch can be attributed to injuries to Jaren Jackson Jr. and Brandon Clarke, who combine to average 28.9 PPG & 10.5 RPG.  The Grizzlies are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games losing by 17.8 PPG.  Take Atlanta. 

7* Minnesota/Wisconsin Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Wisconsin -5 

The Key: No team is playing better than the Wisconsin Badgers in the Big Ten right now.  They are 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall with road wins over Nebraska by 17 and Michigan by 7 as well as home wins over Ohio State by 13, Purdue by 4 and Rutgers by 8.  Now they want to avenge their 52-70 road loss at Minnesota as 1-point favorites on February 5th in the game that preceded this winning streak.  Wisconsin is 16-2 SU in its last 18 home matchups with Minnesota.  The Golden Gophers led the entire way against Maryland last time out but lost on a last-second 3-pointer 73-74.  They have no chance of making the NCAA Tournament now and I question their motivation.  It’s always tough to come back from a last-second loss in a game you should have won.  Wisconsin is 13-1 SU at home this year while Minnesota is 2-8 SU in true road games.  The Gophers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against a team that wins more than 60% of their games.  The Badgers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 Sunday games.  Take Wisconsin. 

7* Pac-12 Game of the Year on USC -3 

The Key: The USC Trojans are trying to make the NCAA Tournament.  They have gone 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games and have consistently been lacking respect from oddsmakers.  That showed Thursday when they upset Arizona 57-48 getting 4.5 points at home.  And they only lost by 2 at Arizona State in their first matchup.  USC is 12-2 at home this year and will be looking to avenge that defeat.  The Trojans have won 17 of their last 21 home matchups with Arizona State.  Take USC. 

7* Thunder/Bucks ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Milwaukee -10.5 

The Key: The Milwaukee Bucks are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS since the break and showing no signs of slowing down.  They beat the Pistons by 20 on the road, the 76ers by 21 at home and the Raptors by 11 on the road.  The Bucks are 26-3 at home this year and will make easy work of a tired Oklahoma City Thunder team.  The Thunder will be playing for a 2nd consecutive day and their 3rd game in 4 days.  They barely survived 112-108 at home over the Kings last night and won’t have much left in the tank for the Bucks tonight.  Bets against road dogs who have won 15 or more of their last 20 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 74-39 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take Milwaukee.