7* Nets/Suns TNT *BAILOUT* on Phoenix -5

The Key: The Phoenix Suns are proving to be a real contender in the Western Conference now that they are healthy.  The Suns are 9-1 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Now they get to host a Brooklyn Nets team that is in a terrible situation playing for a 2nd consecutive night after a 136-125 win in Sacramento last night.  The Nets are without Kevin Durant and don't have a very deep bench, so it's tough for them to handle these situations right now.  The Nets are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games when playing for a 2nd consecutive day.  The Suns are 7-0 ATS in their 7 home games against Eastern Conference teams this season.  Phoenix is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 games against a team with a winning record.  The Suns are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as home favorites.  Take Phoenix.

7* 76ers/Jazz NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Philadelphia +8

The Key: Bettors are getting no bargains on the Utah Jazz at this point after going 17-2 ATS in their last 19 games overall.  Now they are 8-point favorites here over a Philadelphia 76ers team that is one of the best in the NBA.  But the 76ers are coming off 2 straight road losses at Portland and Phoenix, so we are getting a bargain on them tonight.  The 76ers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 matchups with Utah.  The Jazz are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams that win more than 60% of their games.  Take Philadelphia.

7* Blazers/Mavericks ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Dallas -4.5

The Key: It's fun seeing what the Mavericks can do at full strength now that they have been healthy for the first time all season just recently.  The results have shown as they have won 4 straight games.  But the Mavericks are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games overall, so we are getting them cheap today as only 4.5-point favorites over the Blazers.  I can't see the Blazers competing with the Mavericks without CJ McCollum.  Portland is 6-14-1 ATS in its last 21 games off a win by more than 10 points.  The Blazers are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games against a team with a losing home record.  Dallas is 21-8 ATS in the last 29 matchups, including 9-4 ATS in the last 13 home matchups.  Take Dallas.

7* Big Ten Game of the Year on Michigan State +5

The Key: The Michigan State Spartans have won 2 in a row and are making a push to make the NCAA Tournament.  Now it's time for them to avenge their 78-84 road loss at Iowa last week.  The Spartans come back as 5-point home dogs here.  That's significant when you consider Michigan State is 17-1 SU in its last 18 home matchups with the Hawkeyes.  This line is way off for a Hawkeyes team that has dropped 4 of its last 6 games coming in.  The Spartans should be the favorites in this matchup and don't be afraid to bet a percentage of your wager on the money line as well.  Take Michigan State.

7* Pelicans/Mavs ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Dallas -2.5

The Key: We are getting a great price on the Dallas Mavericks tonight after failing to cover 10 of their last 11 games overall.  But they have won 4 of their last 5 games straight up and only have to cover 2.5 points tonight at home against the New Orleans Pelicans.  It's a good time to fade the Pelicans after covering 4 of their last 5 games.  But after playing 7 of their last 9 games at home, the Pelicans are now back on the road.  New Orleans is 2-6 SU in its last 8 road games with its only wins coming by 1 point over the Pacers and by 5 over the Kings.  The 6 losses all came by 5 points or more with 5 of them coming by double-digits.  The Mavericks are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last 4 matchups with the Pelicans with the 4 wins coming by 19.5 PPG.  Take Dallas.

7* Raptors/Celtics NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston -3

The Key: The situation really favors the Celtics over the Raptors tonight.  They are back home after playing 5 straight road games.  They had Wednesday off and are 5-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.  They host a Raptors team that will be playing their 5th road game in 7 days.  The Raptors will be playing for a 2nd consecutive day after winning in Washington last night.  I just don't see Toronto having much left in the tank for a hungry Boston team that will be looking to bounce back from 2 consecutive losses.  The Celtics are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 matchups with the Raptors.  Take Boston.

7* Hawks/Mavericks ESPN *Total* Annihilator on OVER 232

The Key: The OVER is 4-0 in Mavericks last 4 games overall.  They have averaged 254 PPG combined with their opponents in these 4 games and none of them went to overtime.  So a total of 232 here against a Hawks team they just combined for 238 points with a couple games back is too low.  Enjoy rooting for points here because there will be plenty of them to cash this ticket.  Take the OVER.

7* Rockets/Pelicans TNT *HEAVY HITTER* on New Orleans -5.5

The Key: The New Orleans Pelicans are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games overall while outscoring Phoenix, Indiana and Memphis by a combined 32 points.  Now they are in the better spot here coming in on 2 days' rest and hosting the tired Houston Rockets.  The Rockets will be playing for a 2nd consecutive day after a 25-point loss in Charlotte last night in which they only trailed by 3 entering the 4th quarter before gassing out.  It will also be the 5th game in 7 days for the Rockets.  They are already without their best player in Christian Wood and will be without Victor Oladipo tonight due to rest.  The Rockets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games against a team with a winning home record.  Houston is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 games off a SU loss.  The Pelicans are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 2 days' rest.  Take New Orleans.

7* NBA Total of the Month on Warriors/Spurs OVER 233.5

The Key: These are two OVER teams right now, especially the Warriors.  Golden State is coming off 2 straight games that didn't go to OT against Dallas in which they combined for 263 and 266 points.  A big reason for these high-scoring games is the losses of 2 post players for the Warriors in Wiseman and Looney.  They have been forced to go small ball even more than they usually do.  The Spurs will oblige as they like the small ball route as well and have to do the same now that LaMarcus Aldridge is out with a hip injury.  These teams played a couple weeks ago with the Warriors winning 121-99.  But the Spurs shot 4-of-33 (12.1%) from 3-point range in that game.  It was a fast-paced game with the Spurs getting 94 shots and the Warriors 91.  Betting shooting from the Spurs and an even faster-paced game in the rematch will have this one sailing OVER the total.  Take the OVER.

7* Chiefs/Bucs Super Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Tampa Bay +3

The Key: The Tampa Bay Bucs have been dominant since their bye week.  They are 7-0 since their bye and scoring 34 PPG.  The Bucs have the offense to keep up with Patrick Mahomes, who will be running for his life in the Super Bowl without the services of his 2 starting offensive tackles.  The Bucs have the way better defense in this game as they are 6th in the NFL on that side of the ball while the Chiefs are only 18th.  And Tampa Bay will be playing at home.  The Bucs did not play well at all in their first matchup with the Chiefs this season and still only lost 24-27.  They will have their revenge here on the biggest stage of them all with Tom Brady doing what he does.  Take Tampa Bay.

7* Mountain West Game of the Month on Wyoming +7.5

The Key: Wyoming will be looking to avenge its 72-74 home loss to Colorado State as identical 7.5-point dogs on Thursday.  The Cowboys blew a 38-32 halftime lead in that contest and allowed the Rams to shoot 55.1% while they shot 42.6% themselves.  Just a slight improvement will have them covering this spread again and possibly winning outright.  The Cowboys are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games when avenging a same-season loss.  The Cowboys are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games as underdogs.  The underdog is 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 matchups.  Take Wyoming.

7* NBA Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Charlotte Hornets +8.5

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the Charlotte Hornets tonight.  They have gone 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games with outright upset wins over the Bucks, Heat and Pacers.  Their only loss came by 7 points to the 76ers, who are playing as well as anyone right now.  And now they get to face a Utah Jazz team that is also playing great basketball in winning 13 of its last 14 games.  But the Jazz are in a tough situation tonight as they will be playing for a 2nd consecutive day after winning in Atlanta last night.  It will also be the 7th game in 11 days for the Jazz.  The Hornets are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games as home underdogs.  Take Charlotte.

7* Warriors/Mavs TNT *HEAVY HITTER* on Dallas -2.5

The Key: The Dallas Mavericks have some depth now that everyone has returned from quarantine.  So they will be more prepared to handle this situation of playing for a second consecutive day after a win in Atlanta last night.  And I really like the price we are getting on the Mavericks as a short home favorite over the Warriors, a team they are clearly better than.  The Warriors are going to have a tough time defending the paint now that they recently lost both Wiseman and Looney to injuries.  They are going to be one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA now.  The Mavericks are primed to be one of the best offensive teams in the NBA moving forward now that they are healthy.  The Mavericks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 matchups with the Warriors while winning each of the last 4 by 20-plus points.  Take Dallas.

7* Pacers/Bucks ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Milwaukee -8

The Key: We are getting the Bucks cheap right now because they are off to just a 12-8 start this season and have lost 2 of their last 3 coming in.  But they flashed their potential with a 134-106 win over the Blazers last game.  And now they catch the Indiana Pacers in a bad spot.  The Pacers will be playing for a 2nd consecutive day after their win over Memphis yesterday.  It will also be the 7th game in 11 days for the Pacers.  The Bucks are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last 6 matchups with the Pacers with all 5 wins coming by 9 points or more.  The Bucks are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home matchups with all 4 wins by 17 points or more.  Take Milwaukee.

7* Pistons/Jazz NBA *BAILOUT* on Detroit +12.5

The Key: The Pistons have recent upset wins over both the Lakers and 76ers, so they are playing well coming in and fully capable of hanging with the Utah Jazz.  The Jazz are coming off a loss to the Nuggets that ended their 11-game winning streak.  They won't show up with the same kind of effort they were playing with to keep that winning streak alive, and that's going to make it very difficult to cover this 12.5-point spread.  They were only 8.5-point favorites against the Pistons in their 96-86 win over them in their first matchup this season.  So I like the price we are getting on the Pistons in the rematch.  Detroit is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games off a loss by more than 10 points.  The Pistons have gone 9-1 ATS in their 10 games this season against teams that make at least 46% of their shots.  Take Detroit.

7* UNLV/Nevada Mountain West *BAILOUT* on Nevada -2

The Key: I like the price we are getting on Nevada.  The Wolf Pack are coming off 2 straight upset losses at Wyoming.  But each of their last 5 losses have come by 7 points or fewer.  That's how close they are to being on an 11-game winning streak.  UNLV is starting to get some respect after going 5-1 SU in their last 6 games against a very soft schedule.  They starting 1-6 this season prior to this run.  Injury news favors the Wolf Pack as well.  They will get Meeks (9.1 PPG, 5.9 RPG) back from a 3-game absence, and Cambridge Jr. (15.2 PPG) is probable.  UNLV's best player in Hamilton (18.3 PPG) is questionable with an ankle injury suffered in a loss to Utah State last time out.  He had just 2 points in 32 minutes of action against the Aggies, so it clearly affected his play.  The Wolf Pack are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games after playing a road game.  The Rebels are 15-32-4 ATS in their last 51 road games against a team with a winning home record.  The Wolf Pack are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games as home favorites.  Take Nevada.

7* NBA Total of the Month on Suns/Mavs UNDER 217.5

The Key: The Suns already play at one of the slowest paces in the NBA due to having the aging Chris Paul at point guard.  And now they are without their best player in Devin Booker and have been for the past 3 games.  Let's take a look at those 3 games.  They were tied 98-98 at the end of regulation with the Nuggets for 196 combined points.  They lost to the Thunder 97-102 for 199 combined points.  And they beat the Warriors 114-93 for 207 combined points.  Now they will be without Booker again tonight and this total with the Mavs is set at 217.5.  The Mavs are a tired team playing for a second consecutive night after falling 101-120 in the altitude in Salt Lake City last night.  They won't be looking to push the tempo today give the situation.  The UNDER is 7-2 in Suns last 9 road games.  The UNDER is 7-2 in Mavs last 9 games off a loss.  The UNDER is 14-6 in the last 20 matchups in Dallas.  Take the UNDER.

7* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month on New York Knicks +1

The Key: The New York Knicks will be looking to avenge a 103-106 road loss at Cleveland in which they controlled the game most the way but got crushed in the 4th quarter.  They lost that game 2 weeks ago and have not forgotten.  And they also are hungry for a win after losing 3 straight on the road against a tough schedule coming in.  The Knicks are now as healthy as they have been all season and haven't played since Tuesday.  They are primed for one of their best efforts of the season tonight.  The Cavaliers are 30-61-1 ATS in their last 92 games as favorites.  The Knicks are 21-10 ATS when avenging a same-season loss in their last 31 tries.  Take New York.

7* Warriors/Suns TNT *BAILOUT* on UNDER 220.5

The Key: Phoenix has been without Devin Booker in each of its last 2 games and is likely to be without him tonight.  The Suns and Nuggets combined for 196 points at the end of regulation in their first game without him.  Then last night they combined for 199 points with the Thunder in their 2nd game without him.  Now the Suns are a tired team and will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  The Warriors are also a tired team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  That fatigue will affect shooting and will favor defense in this game tonight.  The UNDER is 6-0 in the last 6 matchups in this series with each of the last 3 seeing 218 or fewer combined points.  Take the UNDER.

7* Wisconsin/Maryland Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Wisconsin -2.5

The Key: I like the situation for the Wisconsin Badgers tonight.  They are coming off an upset home loss to Ohio State.  They also were upset by this same Maryland team as 10-point home favorites back on December 28th.  Now they will avenge that defeat and they are only 2.5-point favorites this time around.  That's a 7.5-point adjustment.  Wisconsin hasn't lost 2 in a row all season.  They are 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in their 3 games after a loss this year.  The Badgers are 4-0-2 ATS in their last 6 games off a SU loss.  The Terrapins are 1-5-2 ATS in their last 8 games as home underdogs.  Maryland is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games off a SU win.  Take Wisconsin.

7* NBA Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston Rockets -3.5

The Key: The Washington Wizards just returned to action after being off from January 11th through January 24th due to COVID-19.  They abruptly got blasted by the Spurs by 20 points.  And it's probably going to be more of the same tonight against the Houston Rockets.  They are still missing a handful of key players in quarantine.  The Rockets are as healthy as they've been all season right now and it's starting to show with 2 straight upset wins over the Pistons and Mavericks by a combined 26 points.  They should be laying more than 3.5 points against the Wizards tonight.  I love the price we are getting on the Rockets.  Take Houston.

7* NBA Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Indiana Pacers -2

The Key: The Indiana Pacers will be hungry to avenge their 102-107 home loss to the Toronto Raptors yesterday.  They don't have to wait long as they get to play them again today.  I like the price we are getting on the Pacers.  They were 4.5-point favorites against the Raptors yesterday and are now just 2-point favorites today.  The Raptors are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games off an ATS win.  Take Indiana.

7* NFC Playoffs Game of the Year on Green Bay Packers -3

The Key: The Green Bay Packers have won 7 straight games all by 7 points or more.  They have won those games by an average of nearly 15 PPG.  I think we are getting the Packers cheap as only 3-point home favorites against the Bucs in the NFC Championship Game.  The Bucs will be on the road for the 3rd straight week, and teams in this situation haven't fared well.  The Packers are still very fresh after getting that bye and haven't had to leave home.  They made easy work of the Rams in a 32-18 victory.  They outgained the Rams by 240 yards in that game and put up 484 yards against what was thought to be one of the best defenses in the NFL.  The Bucs struggled to move the ball against the Saints and the Packers have a good pass defense.  The Bucs benefited from a +4 turnover differential against the Saints, who basically gave that game away after having a 20-13 lead in the second half, getting outscored 17-0 the rest the way.  The Bucs scored 21 points off turnovers.  Aaron Rodgers doesn't turn the ball over.  He has 50 touchdown passes and only 5 interceptions this year.  The Packers have won 8 of their 9 home games this year with an average margin of victory of 12.4 PPG.   They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record.  Take Green Bay.

7* Lakers/Bulls NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Chicago +9.5

The Key: The Bulls are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  They have lost just once by more than 4 points in those 13 games too.  And they shouldn't be this big of underdogs to the Lakers.  The Bulls only lost 115-117 at Los Angeles as 8.5-point dogs in their first matchup this year earlier this month.  And now they come back as 9.5-point dogs at home.  I know they played yesterday, but this is a deep team that can handle these back-to-back situations better than most teams.  And they won't have any problem getting re-energized for the defending champion Lakers tonight.  The Bulls are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games as underdogs.  Take Chicago.

7* Celtics/76ers ESPN *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 222.5

The Key: The UNDER is 5-2 in the last 7 matchups in this series with 216 or fewer points scored in all 5 unders.  Wednesday was the exception when the game went over with 226 points scored.  But the 76ers attempted a ridiculous 45 free throw attempts as the refs were whistle-happy.  I look for this matchup to be much more lower scoring.  And keep in mind even with all those free throw attempts it still just went over this 222.5-point total by 3.5 points.  There's a lot of room for error with this UNDER.  These back-to-back rematches always seem to favor defense, too.  Take the UNDER.

7* Lakers/Bucks TNT *HEAVY HITTER* on Milwaukee -1

The Key: The Milwaukee Bucks are fully healthy right now and hungry to take down the defending champion Los Angeles Lakers.  The Lakers have 6 guys on the injury report including both James and Davis, who will both likely play but it is concerning.  The Lakers were just upset by the Warriors on MLK Day.  Now they have to travel to face a Bucks team that is 6-1 SU at home this season.  The Lakers are just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games against Eastern Conference teams.  The Bucks are 30-12 ATS in their last 42 games off an upset loss as a favorite.  The Bucks are 37-17 ATS in their last 54 games off a SU loss.  The Bucks are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 matchups.  Take Milwaukee.

7* Providence/Creighton Big East *HEAVY HITTER* on Providence +9.5

The Key: Providence wants to avenge a 65-67 loss to Creighton at home a couple weeks ago.  The Friars were only 4-point dogs in that game, and now they are 9.5-point dogs here.  The Friars haven't been getting blown out at all lately as they haven't lost any of their last 9 games by more than 10 points.  And Creighton just was upset by Butler without Marcus Zegarowski, who averages 14.1 PPG and is questionable to play tonight.  Zegarowski had 20 points against the Friars in their first matchup so he's clearly very important to the Bluejays' success.  The Friars are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games when avenging a same-season loss.  They are also 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games when avenging a loss overall.  Creighton has only won 1 of its last 7 matchups with Providence by double-digits.  Take Providence.

7* Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Ohio State -4.5

The Key: The Ohio State Buckeyes want to avenge their 60-67 loss at Purdue in their first matchup on December 16 this season.  The Buckeyes shot just 37.9% from the field and 6-of-24 (25%) from 3-point range.  They have been a different team since and are playing some of their best basketball of the season right now.  The Buckeyes are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games with a 79-68 win at Rutgers as a 3.5-point dog, an 81-71 home win over Northwestern as an 8.5-point favorite and an 87-81 win at Illinois as an 8-point dog.  Purdue hasn't been great on the road with losses to Illinois by 8, Rutgers by 5 and Iowa by 15.  The Boilermakers are 2-7-2 ATS in their last 11 games against a team with a winning record.  The Buckeyes are 27-12 ATS in the last 39 matchups. Purdue is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games after going over the total in its last game.  The Buckeyes are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games off an ATS win.  Take Ohio State. 

7* NBA Situational Game of the Month on Miami Heat -5.5

The Key: The Miami Heat will be hungry for a victory today.  They have lost 3 straight coming in.  That includes their 100-120 loss to the Pistons as 5-point favorites on Saturday.  They led that game 56-52 at halftime and got outscored by 24 points after intermission.  The Heat should get even more players back today from COVID and will be ready to avenge that defeat.  The Pistons are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 road games after covering 6 or 7 of their last 8 ATS.  The HEat are 37-14-1 ATS in their last 52 games off a loss.  Take Miami.

7* AFC Playoffs Game of the Year on Kansas City Chiefs -10

The Key: Andy Reid has a proven track record of being the best coach in the NFL to back off a bye.  The Chiefs needed a bye as they just seemed to be going through the motions down the stretch.  Now they will turn the switch on and put their best foot forward in the playoffs.  And that will be enough to put away the Cleveland Browns by double-digits.  The Browns had everything go their way against the Steelers by forcing 5 turnovers.  They still gave up 37 points and 553 total yards.  They gave up 47 points to Baltimore and 35 points to Tennessee recently.  The Chiefs will do whatever they want to against this soft Cleveland defense.  And I don't trust Baker Mayfield to be able to keep up with Patrick Mahomes and company.  The Browns are 1-10 ATS int heir last 11 road games off a win by 10 points or more over a division opponent.  Cleveland is 9-26-2 ATS in its last 37 games against a team with a winning record.  Take Kansas City.

7* ACC Game of the Month on Clemson +2

The Key: Clemson is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Tigers are 9-1 SU & 7-3 ATS this season, including 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home.  And now they are getting no respect again as home underdogs to Virginia.  The Tigers have had 10 days to get ready for the Cavaliers after last playing on January 5th.  Virginia only has 2 days to get ready for Clemson after beating Notre Dame on Wednesday.  That's a big advantage for the Tigers.  Clemson is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 home games off a conference win.  Virginia is 0-8 ATS in its last 8 games off a home win by 10 points or more.  The Tigers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as home underdogs.  Take Clemson.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Sacramento Kings +7

The Key: The Los Angeles Clippers haven't won any of their last 7 games by more than 7 points and have gone 2-5 ATS during this stretch.  They shouldn't be 7-point road favorites over a hungry Sacramento Kings team tonight.  The Kings have won their last 2 matchups with the Clippers by a combined 30 points and covered the spread in those 2 games by a combined 53 points.  Take Sacramento.

7* Rockets/Spurs TNT *HEAVY HITTER* on San Antonio -7

The Key: The San Antonio Spurs have won 4 of their last 5 games including upset wins over both the Lakers and Clippers.  They are playing well right now and will be taking on a Houston Rockets team in turmoil.  The Rockets just traded away James Harden.  They won't have any of the players they gained in the trade in the lineup.  Plus their best player in John Wall is out, as is key contributor John Wall.  Eric Gordon is also questionable.  The Rockets will have a suspect lineup tonight to say the least.  Houston is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 road games.  The Rockets are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss by more than 10 points.  They are coming off 2 straight 17-point losses to the Lakers.  The Rockets are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall with all 4 losses coming by 7 points or more.  Take San Antonio.

7* Mountain West Game of the Month on Wyoming +9.5

The Key: Boise State is getting too much respect from the books due to its 10-game winning streak.  The Broncos will now have to take on a hungry Wyoming team looking to avenge its loss in the first game in this matchup on Monday.  Boise State won the first matchup by 23 points, but it was a 5-point game with under 8 minutes to play.  And the Broncos have failed to cover in the last 2 times they've been in this situation.  They beat San Jose State by 52 and came back and won by just 1 point in the rematch.  They beat Air Force by 19 and came back and won by 11 in the rematch.  And this game will be decided by 9 points or fewer to give the Cowboys the cover.  The Cowboys are a sensational 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games revenging a loss in the same season.  Take Wyoming.

7* Big 12 *HEAVY HITTER* on TCU +6.5

The Key: The TCU Horned Frogs will be looking to avenge a 78-82 home loss to the Oklahoma Sooners in their first matchup this year.  This is a TCU team that has gone 5-2 SU in their last 7 games overall with their only losses coming to the 2 best teams in the Big 12 in Baylor and Kansas.  The Horned Frogs won't have to face Oklahoma's 2nd-leading scorer in Brady Manek, who is out with COVID.  He averages 13.4 PPG this year and had 14 points and 6 boards in their first matchup this season.  The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 matchups.  TCU is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 road games.  The Sooners are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team that wins more than 60% of their road games.  Take TCU.

7* Ohio State/Alabama NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Alabama -8.5

The Key: The Alabama Crimson Tide are going to go down as one of the best teams in college football history.  They have an elite defense as always, giving up 19 PPG.  But their offense is a record-setting one that will continue to pile on the points against Ohio State.  The Crimson Tide average 48.2 PPG and 535 YPG this year as they have outscored their foes by 29.2 PPG on the season.  And they have let up in the 2nd half of most their games.  They won't let up against the Buckeyes after seeing what they did to Clemson last week.  That was an aberration as the Buckeyes managed just 22 points against Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship the week prior.  Clemson just allowed receivers to get behind them the entire game, which was a terrible strategy.  I trust Nick Saban to make the proper adjustments defensively.  And the weakness of this Ohio State defense is their secondary, which allowed 491 passing yards to Indiana and 400 more to Clemson.  That's bad news going up against Mac Jones, Devonta Smith and perhaps Jaylen Waddle returning.  The Buckeyes are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after yielding more than 280 passing yards in their last game.  The Crimson Tide are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 against Big Ten opponents.  The Crimson Tide are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games off an ATS loss.  Take Alabama.

7* NFL Wild Card Game of the Year on Pittsburgh Steelers -6

The Key: The Pittsburgh Steelers nearly beat the Cleveland Browns last week even with resting their starters.  They lost 22-24 but gained 394 yards with a backup QB.  They were a failed 2-point conversion from forcing OT.  Now the Steelers have their starters back and will win and cover in the rematch similar to when they beat the Browns 38-7 at home earlier this year.  Roethlisberger is 24-2-1 all-time against Cleveland and has never lost to them at home.  The Steelers are now 26-2 SU & 18-9-1 ATS in their last 28 home matchups with Cleveland.  The Browns will now be without head coach Kevin Stefanski due to COVID, and he is their play-caller on offense.  It's a huge loss.  The Browns are 8-26-2 ATS in their last 36 vs. a team with a winning record.  Cleveland is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 road games.  The Steelers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine playoff home games.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 matchups.  Take Pittsburgh.

7* Big 12 Game of the Month on Kansas -6.5

The Key: Kansas had its wake up call with a 25-point home loss to Texas two games back, its worst home loss in program history.  The Jayhawks bounced back with a 93-64 win at TCU as a 6-point favorite.  And now they are short 6.5-point home favorites against Oklahoma.  The Jayhawks have won 9 of their last 10 games overall, so that performance against Texas was an aberration.  Oklahoma just lost by 15 at Baylor and hasn't fared well at Kansas.  The Jayhawks are 16-0 SU in their last 16 home matchups with Oklahoma dating back to 1997.  Oklahoma is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 road games off a loss by 10 points or more.  The Sooners are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games against good offensive teams that score 77 PPG or more.  Take Kansas.

7* Clippers/Warriors ESPN *BAILOUT* on Los Angeles -6.5

The Key: The Clippers have won 4 straight matchups with the Warriors all by 7 points or more and by an average of 15 PPG.  They beat the Warriors 108-101 on Wednesday in what was a bad spot for them playing the 2nd of a back-to-back while the Warriors had the previous day off.  Now this is a much better situation for the Clippers as they are fully healthy, while the Warriors could be without Stephon Curry.  Either way, I like Patrick Beverly's chances of shutting him down again even if he does play.  Beverly held him to 13 points and only 5 made field goals in the first matchup.  Curry was seen limping off the floor afterward and it would be wise of the Warriors to sit him.  The Clippers are 39-17 ATS in their last 56 games as road favorites.  The Clippers are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 road games against division opponents.  The Clippers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 trips to Golden State.  The Warriors are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games.  Take Los Angeles.

7* 76ers/Nets TNT *HEAVY HITTER* on Brooklyn ML +112

The Key: The situation really favors the Brooklyn Nets tonight.  They are rested after having yesterday off following their blowout win over the Jazz by 34 points on Tuesday that saw them get to rest their starters in the 4th quarter as well.  The 76ers were in a dog fight with the Wizards last night and prevailed 141-136 despite 60 points from Bradley Beal.  That effort will have taken a lot out of the 76ers, and now they won't have much fight left tonight for the Nets.  It will also be the 8th game in 13 days for the 76ers, a brutal schedule to start the season.  Bets against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after being the spread by 30 or more points total in their last 5 games against a team that went under the total by 24 points or more in their last 3 games combined are 24-5 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take Brooklyn on the Money Line.

7* ACC Game of the Week on Louisville -4

The Key: Virginia Tech is overrated due to its 8-1 record this season.  This will actually be the Hokies' first true road game this season, and it comes against one of the best teams in the ACC in Louisville.  The Cardinals are 7-1 this season with their only loss coming on the road at Wisconsin.  They will make easy work of the Hokies, which has been a yearly tradition for them.  Louisville has won 16 straight matchups with Virginia Tech, most recently a 68-52 home win in March of 2020.  Virginia Tech hasn't beaten Louisville since 1991.  The Hokies are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games.  The Hokies are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as underdogs.  Take Louisville.

7* Kansas/TCU Big 12 *BAILOUT* on Kansas -5.5

The Key: The Kansas Jayhawks are coming off their worst home loss in program history to Texas.  Their only other loss this season came to top-ranked Gonzaga.  They will be fired up to bounce back here against an overrated TCU team that has won 5 straight against suspect competition coming in.  The Jayhawks have won 16 of their last 17 matchups with the Horned Frogs.  The Jayhawks are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 road games against a team with a winning record.  Kansas is 9-0 ATS in its last 9 games off a loss by 20 points or more.  Take Kansas.

7* Maryland/Indiana Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Maryland +5

The Key: The Indiana Hoosiers are playing well enough since they opened Big Ten play to warrant being 5-point favorites over Maryland in this matchup.  The Hoosiers are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last 3 games overall with their lone win coming in overtime over Penn State 87-85 as 6.5-point favorites.  They were upset at home by Northwestern 67-74 as 9-point favorites and also failed to cover as 6.5-point underdogs at Illinois.  Maryland is 2-1 ATS in its last 3 games.  The Terrapins only lost by 3 as 6-point dogs at Purdue, upset Wisconsin 70-64 as 10-point dogs and lost to undefeated Michigan 73-84.  Maryland is 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in its last 3 matchups with Indiana.  Take Maryland.

7* AFC East Game of the Year on New York Jets +3

The Key: The Jets have been one of the most profitable teams in the NFL to back down the stretch.  They are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  They have pulled off 2 straight upsets over the Rams as 17.5-point dogs and Browns as 6.5-point dogs.  And now they would love to get revenge from a 27-30 loss to the Patriots in their first matchup this season.  The Patriots are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last 3 games overall, getting outscored a combined 24-84 in the process.  They haven't even been competitive.  If they were going to show something it would have been against the Bills on Monday Night Football last week.  Instead they rolled over and lost 9-38.  Their offense is broken as they have been held to either 12 points or fewer or 291 yards or fewer in 5 straight games coming in.  They are missing several key contributors on both sides of the football.  The wrong team is favored in this matchup.  The Patriots are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as favorites.  Take New York.

7* UNC/Texas A&M NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Texas A&M -7

The Key: Texas A&M just completed a dominant 8-1 season in which they proved they were one of the best teams in college football.  Their lone loss came to Alabama, which could be the best team in college football history.  And now the Aggies want to punctuate their season.  They don't have anyone really opting out for this one, and it's a senior-led team.  And they'll be up against a UNC team from a weak ACC conference that has almost all of their best players opting out and getting ready for the NFL draft.  Their top NFL prospect on defense and leading tackler Surratt is out.  They are without 2-time 1,000-yard receiver Brown, plus two 1,000-yard rushers in Carter and Williams.  QB Sam Howell might as well opt out as well with all the weapons he is missing.  It will go about as well for him as it did for Kyle Trask and Florida when they got blasted by Oklahoma earlier this week.  The Aggies are 20-9-1 ATS in their last 30 games as favorites.  Texas A&M is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 non-conference games.  Take Texas A&M.

7* Notre Dame/Alabama NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Alabama -19.5

The Key: The Notre Dame Fighting Irish keep coming up short in big games.  It happened against in the ACC Championship when they lost 10-34 to Clemson.  And that game was every bit the blowout it seemed as Clemson outgained Notre Dame 541 to 263.  And it will be more of the same here against Alabama.  This may be the best Alabama team we've ever seen as they are outscoring opponents by 30.2 PPG this season.  They definitely have their best offense of the Saban era at 49.7 PPG.  And the Crimson Tide have outscored their opponents 131-47 in their last 4 playoff semifinal games.  They beat Notre Dame 42-14 in their last playoff matchup.  Ian Book isn't good enough to keep up with Mac Jones and company.  The Fighting Irish have allowed over 200 rushing yards in 2 straight games coming in, so the Crimson Tide should be able to run the ball when they need to late to keep margin.  Alabama is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 games off an ATS loss.  The Crimson Tide are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.  Take Alabama.

7* Ball State/San Jose State NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Ball State +10

The Key: The San Jose State Spartans were undervalued all season.  They went 7-0 SU & 6-0-1 ATS this year en route to winning the Mountain West title.  They beat Boise State in the Championship Game.  This team was an underdog in 4 of their 7 games this season and won them all outright.  But now the Spartans are getting respect heading into this bowl game due to those perfect records both SU and ATS.  And asking them to win by 10-plus points to cover this number against Ball State is asking too much.  I don't see the Spartans being too excited to face a MAC opponent in their bowl game as I think they feel they deserved a better bowl game.  They will be content with their season no matter what happens here.  Ball State has been a different team since losing a fluky game to Miami Ohio in the opener.  The Cardinals have gone 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS since while beating the best teams the MAC had to offer in Toledo, Central Michigan, Western Michigan and Buffalo.  Their outright 38-28 win over Buffalo as a 12-point dog showed what they are capable of.  And now the Cardinals will feel disrespected again as big dogs in their bowl game and will be playing with a chip on their shoulder.  No question the Cardinals have the better quarterback here, which is why they will never be out of this game.  Drew Plitt is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country.  He completed 65.8% of his passes for 1,947 yards with 16 TD and only 6 INT this season.  And this Ball State defense got better down the stretch, holding each of its final five opponents to 28 points or fewer.  This is a senior-laden Cardinals team that wants a bowl win desperately.  They haven't been to a bowl since 2013 and the program is 0-7 all-time in bowls.  They have a chance to make history here and I wouldn't be surprised at all if they win this game outright.  Take Ball State.

7* Florida/Oklahoma NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma -6.5

The Key: The Oklahoma Sooners have gone 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall en route to yet another Big 12 title.  And while the Sooners will be almost at full strength for this one, the Florida Gators will not be.  The writing is pretty much on the wall that the Gators don't care about this game after losing to Alabama in the SEC Championship.  They will be without each of their top 4 receivers with 3 opt outs and one due to COVID.  And they will be missing several other key players as well as they prepare for the NFL Draft.  The Sooners should make easy work of the Gators in this game even if Kyle Trask decides to play.  He won't have anyone to throw the ball to.  This Florida defense has allowed an average of 511.5 YPG and 44.5 PPG in back to back losses to LSU and Alabama.  The Sooners should be able to name their score.  Take Oklahoma.

7* Oklahoma State/Miami NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +1

The Key: The wrong team is favored in this matchup.  Miami is getting docked too much from a 62-26 loss to UNC in the season finale that put a bad taste in their mouths heading into the bowl season.  The Hurricanes still finished 8-2 with their other loss to Clemson.  Oklahoma State is getting too much respect for its 42-3 win over Baylor in the season finale.  That was a Baylor team coming off a tough loss to Oklahoma and they just failed to show up.  Remember the Cowboys went 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS in their previous 5 games and had been very overrated.  They only beat Kansas State by 2 and Texas Tech by 6 for their 2 wins during that stretch and lost by 28 to Oklahoma.  The news that D'Eriq King announced he is coming back next year at QB for Miami has energized this team.  And they want to make amends for an upset loss to LA Tech in their bowl game last year.  They will be hungry for a win and we should see the best version of Miami because of it, which should be good enough to beat Oklahoma State.  The Hurricanes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.  Take Miami.

7* Bills/Patriots MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo -7

The Key: The Bills have a lot to play for.  They can be the first team to sweep the season series with the Patriots in 19 years.  And they can grab a stranglehold on the 2nd seed in the AFC with a win here over the Patriots.  They want to keep their momentum going, too.  The Bills have won 7 of their last 8 games with their only loss coming on that hail mary against Arizona.  They are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as well with 5 wins by 10 points or more.  They are scoring 34.8 PPG in their last 6 games and giving up just 18.8 PPG in their last 4 contests.  The Patriots are averaging just 248 YPG in their last 4 games as their offense has held them back all season.  Their best defensive player in CB Stephon Gilmore just went out with a season-ending injury against the Dolphins last week in their 22-12 loss.  They won't have him to match up with Stefon Diggs now, who is having a monster season in his first year in Buffalo.  There's just nothing to like about the Patriots right now, and there's everything to like about the Bills, who may be the best team in the AFC.  Take Buffalo.

7* AFC Total of the Year on Broncos/Chargers OVER 47

The Key: This game between Denver and Los Angeles has shootout written all over it.  Neither team has anything to play for.  And both are missing key players on defense.  The Broncos are missing as many as 5 defensive backs plus their best defensive player in LB Bradley Chubb.  We saw what the Bills did to them last week in scoring 48 points and with 352 passing yards and 182 rushing yards.  The Chargers will light up this scoreboard as well.  The Chargers are without their 2 best pass rushers in Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram.  They give up 27.8 PPG this year, while the Broncos allow 28.2 PPG.  These teams played in a 31-30 shootout in their first matchup in favor of the Broncos with their big comeback victory.  And it should be more of the same here in the rematch given the defensive injuries to both teams.  The Broncos are 16-4 OVER in their last 20 games after allowing 40 points or more last game.  The OVER is 4-0 in Broncos last 4 against a team with a losing record.  The OVER is 8-3 in Chargers last 11 games overall.  Take the OVER.

7* NCAAF Bowl Game of the Year on Georgia State -3.5

The Key: Conference USA is 0-3 in bowl games this year through Wednesday and has been outscored by a combined 78 points in those 3 defeats.  Now it's Western Kentucky's turn to get blasted.  The Hilltoppers went 5-6 this year with their 5 wins coming against either FCS opponents or teams that won 3 games or fewer.  The 4 C-USA teams they beat have a combined 8-22 record this year.  WKU had the worst offense in all of C-USA this season at 18.8 PPG.  Appalachian State beat North Texas 56-28 and Georgia Southern beat LA Tech 38-3 in a pair of Sun Belt vs. C-USA matchups already this bowl season.  Georgia State only lost to App State 17-13 and beat Georgia Southern 30-24.  The Panthers average 32.7 PPG this year and will have a huge edge on offense in this matchup.  This should be another Sun Belt over C-USA blowout Saturday.  Take Georgia State.

7* Marshall/Buffalo NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo -5

The Key: The Buffalo Bulls went undefeated in the regular season before falling to Ball State in the MAC Championship.  Their numbers have been dominant all year as they average 47.8 PPG and give up just 23.8 PPG.  And now they take on a team from Conference USA in Marshall.  Conference USA is 0-3 in bowl games this year and has been outscored by a combined 78 points in those 3 defeats.  That's bad news for a Marshall team that has averaged just 6.5 PPG in losing its last 2 games to Rice (20-0) and UAB (13-22).  Marshall went 7 straight quarters without scoring a single point over those 2 games before getting 13 points in garbage time in the 4th quarter against UAB.  Marshall QB Wells has completed just 45% of his passes over the last 2 games with 2 touchdowns and 5 interceptions.  Marshall will be without leading rusher RB Knox, leading tackler LB Beckett and top offensive lineman G Ball as they all try and get ready for the NFL.  Buffalo is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games.  Marshall is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games off a loss.  Take Buffalo.

7* Hawaii/Houston NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Hawaii +9.5

The Key: The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors finished 4-4 this season with 4 losses against quality opponents, including an 8-point loss to Boise State.  They also upset Nevada, which just beat AAC member Tulane 38-27 in their bowl game.  And now they take on an AAC team in Houston that is just 3-4 on the season.  The Cougars didn't have any impressive wins this year as their 3 victories came against the bottom of the AAC with Navy, South Florida and Tulane.  And they lost 3 times by 17 points or more as well.  This feels like it will be a one-score game either way.  I like Hawaii QB Cordeiro who has totaled 18 touchdowns passing and rushing in 8 games this year.  He will make enough plays with his arm and feet to keep the Rainbow Warriors in this game for 4 quarters with a possible upset.  Take Hawaii.

7* Bucks/Celtics TNT *HEAVY HITTER* on Milwaukee -4

The Key: The Milwaukee Bucks are a regular season team.  They went 56-17 last year during the regular season.  They added former All-Star PG Jrue Holiday, who will be a big upgrade over Eric Bledsoe to go along with starts Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton.  They also added veterans Bobby Portis, Bryn Forbes, Torrey Craig and D.J. Augustin.  They have the makings of the best team in the NBA.  The Celtics lost Gordon Hayward and will be without Kemba Walker to open the season.  The Bucks are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last 7 matchups with Boston with all 6 wins coming by 5 points or more.  Take Milwaukee.

7* UFC/BYU Boca Raton Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on BYU -6

The Key: The BYU Cougars (10-1) are the better team in this matchup with the UCF Knights (6-3).  They will be the more hungry team here too with UCF used to playing in much bigger bowls than the Boca Raton Bowl.  And BYU will pretty much have its full compliment of players for this game while UCF has some guys opting out, including leading receiver Marlon Williams who had 71 receptions for 1,039 yards and 10 touchdowns this year. Both teams have explosive offenses with UCF averaging 44.3 PPG and 6.8 YPP while BYU averages 43.0 PPG and 7.7 YPP.  But the difference in this game is defensively.  BYU only gives up 14.6 PPG, 308.9 YPG and 4.8 YPP.  UCF allows 31.4 PPG, 473.7 YPG and 5.9 YPP.   UCF is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games with a total of 70 or higher.  The Knights are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.  UCF has losses to Cincinnati, Tulsa and Memphis this season.  BYU's only loss came to Coastal Carolina on only a few days' notice.  And that's an 11-0 Coastal Carolina team.  Take BYU.

7* Steelers/Bengals MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Cincinnati +14.5

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the Bengals tonight after losing 5 straight and failing to cover 4 of their last 5.  They are getting docked a lot more for their recent struggles than the Steelers are.  Keep in mind the Steelers have lost 2 in a row to Washington and Buffalo.  Their injuries on defense and their lack of a running game on offense have held them back in recent weeks.  Plus they have been a tired team with the schedule difficulty as they will now be playing their 4th game in 20 days.  Their offense has been held to 19 points or fewer in 3 straight.  Cincinnati's defense has given up 20 points or fewer in 3 of its last 4.  And the only exception was the 30 points they gave up to Dallas which was aided by 3 fumbles early in the game.  The Cowboys only managed 272 yards against them.  This is only the 2nd time all season that the Steelers have bene a double-digit favorite.  They nearly lost outright to the Cowboys in their largest favorite role of -14.  This is only the 2nd time all season that the Bengals have been a double-digit underdog.  Oddsmakers know that the public wants nothing to do with the Bengals right now so they are forced to set this number higher than it should be.  The Steelers are now 0-6 ATS in their last 6 December games.  Take Cincinnati.

7* 49ers/Cowboys NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Dallas +3.5

The Key: The Cowboys have covered 3 of their last 5 coming in after a 30-7 win at Cincinnati last week.  This is a great price on the Cowboys at home against a 49ers team that doesn't have anything to play for and has been hurt by injuries worse than any other team in the NFL.  That's a big reason why the 49ers are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games coming in.  The Cowboys are still very much alive in the NFC East race and should be the hungrier team.  Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games as a home underdog.  Take Dallas.

7* Pac-12 Game of the Year on Stanford +7

The Key: The Stanford Cardinal have won 3 straight and have all the momentum right now going into this final game of the season.  That includes their upset win over Washington as a double-digit underdog.  And now they are catching 7 points against a UCLA team that is 3-3 and coming off a 3rd heartbreaking loss this season.  This one was a 38-43 loss to USC in which they allowed a TD with 16 seconds left.  They were in control of the game the whole way, too.  I don't expect this young UCLA team to be able to handle that loss very well, and they likely won't even show up this week against Stanford.  The Cardinal are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 matchups with UCLA, including 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 matchups at UCLA.  Take Stanford.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Rutgers +7

The Key: Nebraska is just 2-5 and should not be favored this heavily over Rutgers in the season finale for both teams.  The Huskers are coming off an upset loss to Minnesota as 8-point favorites.  Rutgers has the momentum, coming off an upset win over Maryland last time out.  They also upset Purdue two games ago as a double-digit dog.  They have been competitive in most their games this year, too.  The Scarlet Knights now have a chance to win four Big Ten games for the first time since joining the conference in 2014.  "This Nebraska game is everything," head coach Greg Schiano said. "We're shooting for something that has not been done at Rutgers.  ANd, to do it in a situation where you play nine straight.  And, to do it in a situation where you didn't have a non-conference to work out any of the kings.  I think everybody in our program has a chance to do something special."  It's clear that the Scarlet Knights want this game more than Nebraska does.  Bets against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points who have lost 3 of their last 4 games, in conference games are 70-38 ATS over the last 5 years.  The Huskers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as favorites.  The Scarlet Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as dogs.  Take Rutgers.

7* Chargers/Raiders AFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles +3.5

The Key: The Los Angeles Chargers are the better team than the Las Vegas Raiders despite what their records say.  The Chargers are 4-9 this season but outgaining their opponents by nearly 50 YPG, while the Raiders are 7-6 despite getting outgained by nearly 15 YPG.  The Raiders have a soft defense that allows 30.1 PPG on the season and 37.5 PPG over their last 4 contests.  And that defense isn't getting any better with all of their injuries right now, most notably to DE Ferrell and S Abram, who are among at least 4 starters that are out for this game.  The Chargers want to end the Raiders' playoff hopes here.  That would be sweet revenge for a 26-31 loss to the Raiders in their 1st matchup this year in which the Chargers had their game-winning TD overturned on replay on the final play of the game.  The Chargers outgained the Raiders by 120 yards in that contest and had a 26-16 edge in first downs.  Bets against favorites like the Raiders after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse are 52-19 ATS over the last 5 years.  The Raiders committed 3 turnovers in their 27-44 loss to the Colts on Sunday and now have 10 turnovers in their last 3 games.  Take Los Angeles.

7* Northeastern/Syracuse NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Syracuse -17.5

The Key: Syracuse is 4-1 this year with 3 wins by 30 or more points.  Their only loss came to Rutgers, which just beat Maryland by 14 on the road and is one of the better teams in the country.  They rebounded with one of the best performances of any team this season with a 101-63 win over Boston College.  And now they should make easy work of Northeastern.  The Huskies brought back just 2 players who averaged more than 3.5 PPG last season.  They are inexperienced and have just 2 games under their belts, a home-and-home with UMass.  Syracuse is 7-0 all-time against Northeastern, including 3-0 ATS in the last 3 matchups with a 72-49 win in their most recent showdown in 2018.  The Huskies are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games off a win.  The Huskies are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games off an ATS win.  Take Syracuse.

7* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Furman +6.5

The Key: Furman is 5-1 this year and outscoring opponents by 24.1 PPG.  They have picked up right where they left off.  They won 23 games in Bob Richey’s first season, then proceeded to tie a school record with 25 wins each fo the last 2 seasons.  They returned 4 starters and 3 double-digit scorers from last year’s team that went 25-7.  And their only loss this season came on the road to a solid Cincinnati team by a final of 73-78.  Alabama is just 3-2 with an 18-point loss to Stanford and an 8-point loss to Stanford.  I think the Crimson Tide are getting too much respect from the books here against a Furman team that is very capable of winning this one outright.  Plus the Crimson Tide are coming off that huge rivalry game against Clemson and have an even bigger game on deck this weekend against No. 6 Houston.  This is a sandwich spot for the Crimson Tide.  Alabama is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 home games.  Furman is 21-10 ATS in its last 31 road games.  The Paladins are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games off a home win where they scored 85 or more points.  Take Furman.

7* Ravens/Browns MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland +3

The Key: The Cleveland Browns are out to prove that they can beat the Baltimore Ravens.  They want revenge from that 6-38 loss in Week 1 in which things spiraled out of control after a botched fake punt early and 3 turnovers.  The Browns have been a completely different team since.  They have gone 9-2 in their last 11 games overall and now find themselves just one game out of 1st place in the AFC North.  They are the much fresher, healthier team right now than the Ravens as well.  Baltimore will be playing its 3rd game in 12 days due to COVID complications.  They had just 5 days to get ready for the Browns after playing the Cowboys on Tuesday.  Cleveland has had 7 days to get ready for Baltimore.  The Browns are 5-1 SU at home this year.  Baker Mayfield is playing his best football and hasn't thrown an interception since October 25, a span of almost 6 games.  He has 11 TD and zero interceptions since his last pick.  And with Nick Chubb back healthy, the Browns have been monsters on the ground.  They have rushed for 100-plus yards in 5 straight games and an average of 173.3 RYPG in their last 4.  The Ravens have given up 111 or more rushing yards in 4 of their last 5.  The Browns have been good against the run all season, yielding only 104 RYPG.  Take Cleveland.

7* NFC Game of the Year on Washington +3

The Key: Washington has won 3 straight including upset road wins over the Cowboys and 49ers to get into a tie with the Giants for 1st place in the NFC East.  But they lost both matchups with the Giants so they are essentially a game behind.  They need wins like blood here down the stretch.  The 49ers just lost to the Bills last week to essentially eliminate them from the playoffs.  They are now 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.  I don't like their mindset right now, and there's no way they should be favored over Washington this week.  Washington has one of the best defenses in the NFL in yielding only 310.9 YPG.  And Alex Smith has provided some stability to their offense.  He led them back from a 14-0 deficit against the Steelers last week to pull the 23-17 upset.  Washington hasn't lost any of its last 7 games by more than 3 points, making for a 7-0 angle back them here.   The 49ers are 9-22-1 ATS in their last 32 games as favorites.  Take Washington.

7* USC/UCLA Pac-12 *HEAVY HITTER* on UCLA +3.5

The Key: The UCLA Bruins are very close to being 5-0 this year.  They lost by 6 to Colorado and by 3 to Oregon, both on the road.  And they have wins over Cal by 24, Arizona by 17 and Arizona State by 7.  They are battle tested and ready to beat a team like USC.  The Trojans are 4-0 but could easily be 2-2.  They only beat Arizona State by 1 and Arizona by 4, the same two teams that UCLA beat by a combined 24 points.  The Bruins actually have the better stats too as they are outgaining teams by 0.8 yards per play while USC is outgaining teams by 0.5 yards per play.  The Trojans have also benefitted from being +6 in turnovers and forcing a whopping 12 of them in four games.  The Trojans are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games as road favorites.  USC is 16-35-2 ATS in its last 53 road games overall.  The Bruins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall . The home team is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 matchups.  Take UCLA.

7* Nevada/SJSU NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Nevada +1.5

The Key: Nevada has been the best team in the Mountain West this year in my opinion.  I’ve cashed on them several times already, and I’ll take them again tonight as they should not be dogs to San Jose State.  The Wolf Pack are outgaining their opponents by 81.0 YPG this year while San Jose State is outgaining opponents by 72.0 YPG.  And I like the situation for Nevada better here.  The Wolf Pack get to stay in Nevada as this game will be played at Sam Boyd Stadium.  The Spartans had to fly back from Hawaii over the weekend and now have to travel to Nevada too on this short week.  The Wolf Pack will be the fresher, more prepared team for this one.  Nevada is 10-1 SU in the last 11 matchups.  The Wolf Pack are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as underdogs.  Take Nevada.

7* Pittsburgh/Georgia Tech ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on Georgia Tech +7

The Key: Pitt just hasn’t been able to get margin on Georgia Tech in recent matchups.  Their largest win in the last 7 matchups came by 10 points last year against a very bad Georgia Tech team that was in the first season under Geoff Collins trying to switch from the triple-option to a pro style offense.  The previous largest win for Pitt was by 5 points in those 7 matchups.  The Yellow Jackets have improved tremendously this year even though they are just 3-6 on the season.  They have been competitive in a lot more games and have now outgained their last two opponents in Duke by 141 yards and NC State by 15 yards coming into this game.  They face a Pitt team still reeling from a 17-52 loss to Clemson.  And they will give the Panthers a run for their money tonight.  The Panthers just had DE Rashad Weaver and his 7.5 sacks opt out for the rest of the year, which will make life easier on this Georgia Tech offense.  Take Georgia Tech.

7* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Stephen F. Austin +23.5

The Key: This is a bad spot for Baylor.  They are disappointed they didn’t get to play Gonzaga over the weekend due to COVID.  And they will have a hard time getting up emotionally to play Stephen F. Austin tonight.  Especially since they have their Big 12 opener on deck this weekend against Texans.  But the Lumberjacks aren’t a team to be taken lightly.  They went 28-3 last year and won 27 or more games for the 6th time in 8 seasons.  They returned 3 of their top 4 scorers from that 28-win team, too.  And they are primed to give No. 2 Baylor a run for its money tonight.  The Lumberjacks have handled their business at 3-0 with 3 wins by double-digits.  Stephen F. Austin is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 against good teams that outscore their opponents by 4 PPG or more.  The Lumberjacks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  Take Stephen F. Austin.

7* Cowboys/Ravens NFL *Total* Annihilator on OVER 45

The Key: The Baltimore Ravens just played in a slug fest with the Steelers in a 14-19 loss.  But they were missing QB Lamar Jackson and several other key players on offense.  Jackson and company return this week, and I think we see this Baltimore offense get back to being elite against a soft Cowboys defense.  The Cowboys allow 32.6 PPG and 382 YPG this year.  Baltimore is also missing several key players on defense still, and the Cowboys should be able to get their offense going with all the weapons they have for Andy Dalton.  They scored 31 points against the Vikings 2 weeks ago before being shut down by a very good Washington defense last time out.  The Ravens have allowed 23 or more points in 4 of their last 6 games overall, including 28 or more 3 times.  Dallas is 8-1 OVER in its last 9 games off an upset loss as a favorite.  Bets on the OVER on any team with a total of 42.5 to 49 points off a loss against a division opponent against a team that’s off a road loss to a division opponent are 35-10 over the last 10 seasons.  Take the OVER.

7* Washington/Pittsburgh MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington +7

The Key: Washington is fresh and ready to go after crushing Dallas 41-16 on Thanksgiving Day last Thursday.  They are poised to make a run at the NFC East title.  They have gone 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games while not losing once by more than 3 points.  Their defense is absolutely balling, and Alex Smith is making the offense efficient without making many mistakes.  That defense and not turning the ball over gives Washington a chance to beat anyone, even the unbeaten 11-0 Pittsburgh Steelers.  This may be the worst situation for any team in the NFL.  The Steelers are on only 4 days’ rest after being forced to play the Ravens on Wednesday.  They have to face a Washington team on extra rest, and the injuries and COVID problems are mounting up for Pittsburgh.  They lost LB Bud Dupree against the Ravens and fellow LB Devin Bush was already out.  It’s unknown if DE Tuitt, C Pouncey or RB Conner will be back in time for Monday due to COVID.  And it’s a letdown spot off the big win over the Ravens and with another huge game against the Bills on deck next week.  This just feels like the game the Steelers lose.  But either way getting 7 points with Washington is too much here.  Take Washington.

7* NFC West Game of the Year on Arizona Cardinals +3

The Key: The Arizona Cardinals have now failed to cover the spread in each of their last 4 games.  This line has moved too much because of it, and now the price is right to back the Cardinals.  The Cardinals were favored in this game before the games were played last week.  But now they are 3-point home dogs.  And the only thing that happened was the Rams getting upset as nearly 7-point favorites by the 49ers and the Cardinals getting upset as 1-point favorites against the Patriots.  But the Cardinals should have beaten the Patriots as they lost 17-20 despite holding New England to 179 yards and outgaining them by 119 yards.  The Rams were outgained by 37 yards by the 49ers and turned the ball over 4 times.  They deserved to lose.  Arizona needs this game more as it is one game behind the Rams in the standings.  And I think we get one of the best efforts of the season from the Cardinals here.  They have played 5 home games this year and haven’t lost once by more than 3 points.  Bets on underdogs or PK who are coming off an upset loss as a road favorite that win 51%-60% of their games in the 2nd half of the season are 30-8 ATS since 1983.  Take Arizona.

7* Big Ten Game of the Year on Illinois +13.5

The Key: Illinois QB Brandon Peters played against Nebraska in their last game for the first time since the opener because of COVID-19 issues.  He threw for 205 yards and a touchdown to improve to 7-5 in his career in games he’s able to complete.  The Fighting Illini tried four others at QB in his absence and it did not go well.  Peters makers all the difference for this team.  He led the Illini to a 41-23 win at Nebraska two weeks ago with 490 yards of total offense.  And now the Fighting Illini have had 2 weeks to get ready to face rival Iowa.  The Hawkeyes are starting to get too much respect from the books now as they have won 4 straight since an 0-2 start.  They barely held on to beat that same Nebraska team 26-20 as 12-point home favorites last week.  And now they are in their largest favorite role of the season here as 13.5-point favorites over Illinois.  It’s too much for an Iowa team that isn’t getting very good play at all from first-time starter Spencer Petras.  Iowa only beat Illinois 19-10 as 15-point home favorites last year.  The Illini rushed for 192 yards in that game, and they are 2nd in the Big Ten with 222.4 RYPG this season.  Illinois is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 conference games.  The Illini are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games off a win.  Take Illinois.

7* Louisiana/Appalachian State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Louisiana +3

The Key: Louisiana is revenge-minded Friday night.  The Rajin’ Cajuns have lost each of their last 7 matchups with Appalachian State, including 4 losses over the last 2 seasons while ending with losses in the Sun Belt Title game.  Louisiana played well enough to win in the rematch last year as they had 513 yards compared to 416 for App State, but lost 38-45.  But now App State has already been eliminated from Sun Belt title contention with their earlier loss to Coastal Carolina, so they won’t be as hungry here as they’d normally be.  I was impressed with Louisiana hanging 70 points on rival Louisiana-Monroe last week, clearly not looking ahead to this game.  And they had the previous week off due to Covid-19 concerns.  So they are still going to be very fresh here.  App State will be playing for a 7th consecutive week here.  Louisiana is 5-0 SU on the road this year with an outright upset of Iowa State, which is ranked 9th in the playoff rankings.  The Rajin’ Cajuns are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 road games against excellent rushing teams that average 230 or more RYPG.  The Mountaineers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Take Louisiana.

7* LA Tech/North Texas C-USA *HEAVY HITTER* on LA Tech ML +100

The Key: LA Tech went through a gauntlet of a schedule before having the last month off due to Covid-19 problems.  They lost to Marshall by 18, UTSA by 1 and upset UAB by 3 as 12.5-point dogs.  They were improving with each game.  And now they will be ready to play a game for the first time in a month here.  That’s the only reason they aren’t favored is because they have been off for so long.  But North Texas has no business being favored in this game.  They are coming off a 17-49 loos to UTSA in which they gave up 624 total yards to the Roadrunners.  And their defense has been atrocious all season.  The Mean Green give up 41.0 PPG, 535 YPG and 7.0 YPP.  It’s hard to trust a team that cannot stop the run, and the Mean Green yield 244 RYPG and 5.8 YPC.  LA Tech is 6-0 ATS against good passing teams that average 250 PYPG or more over the last 3 years.  North Texas is 0-7 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 years.  The Mean Green are 0-8 ATS against teams that allow 250 PYPG or more over the last 3 years. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 matchups and 4-0 ATS in the last 4 matchups at North Texas.  Take Louisiana Tech.

7* Ravens/Steelers AFC North *HEAVY HITTER* on Pittsburgh -10

The Key: The Baltimore Ravens are missing too many key pieces to even be competitive today against the Pittsburgh Steelers.  They are without the likes of Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, Pernell McPhee, Mark Ingram, JK Dobbins, Brandon Williams, Nike Boyle, Ronnie Stanley and Calais Campbell.  And they are without several others that aren’t big names like those.  They are having to pull up several players from the practices squad just to be able to play in this game.  And they have really pissed off their rivals here in the Steelers, who won’t have any problem pouring it on the Ravens.  They will be trying to sweep the season series for just the 2nd time in 12 years here in 2020 and will relish the opportunity.  And the Steelers have beaten the Bengals and Jaguars by a combined 50 points the last 2 weeks so they have shown the ability to run it up.  The Steelers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 against AFC opponents.  Pittsburgh is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games as a home favorite.  The Steelers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.  The Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.  Take Pittsburgh.

7* Tuesday NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Alabama -10

The Key: Head coach Nate Oats brings back 4 of his top 6 scorers from last year led by John Petty Jr. and Jaden Shackelford, who combined for 30 PPG and 11 RPG last year.  After crushing Jacksonville State 81-57 as 20.5-point favorites, the Crimson Tide fell apart against Stanford yesterday with a 64-82 loss.  They shot terrible at 35.8% from the field and gave up 51.7%.  But their defense has been good at forcing turnovers as they have forced 42 in the first 2 games.  And they will be looking to bounce back in a big way today against a UNLV team that is terrible.  UNLV lost 78-91 as a 12.5-point favorite to Montana State in their opener and were routed 51-78 as a 13-point dog to North Carolina yesterday.  They lost basically everyone other than Bryce Hamilton from last season.  They have committed 35 turnovers in 2 games, so they are sure to not handle the pressure of Alabama very well.  Once UNC turned up the pressure yesterday they crumbled.  The Rebels are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.  The Crimson Tide are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games off a double-digit home loss.  Take Alabama.

7* Seahawks/Eagles NFC *Total* Annihilator on OVER 49

The Key: It’s going to be over 60 degrees with minimal winds in Philadelphia Monday.  This total is too low for a Seattle team that has one of the best offenses in the NFL but also one of the worst defenses.  The Seahawks score 31.8 PPG on offense but give up 28.7 PPG and 435 YPG on defense.  They have the single worst defense in the NFL from a yardage standpoint.  And the Eagles have gotten a lot healthier offensively in recent weeks with several key playmakers returning for Carson Wentz.  He should have one of his best games of the season against this Seattle defense to keep pace with Russell Wilson and company. And the Seahawks get back RB Chris Carson this week, adding to their dynamic offense.  Take the OVER.

7* AFC South Game of the Year on Tennessee Titans +3

The Key: The Tennessee Titans are looking to avenge their 17-34 loss to the Colts just a two weeks ago.  They led that game 17-13 before a shanked punt and a blocked punt return TD directly led to 14 points for the Colts on special teams mistakes.  That was really a 3-point game that turned into a 17-point loss and looks worse than it was.  But the Titans rebounded with a dominant 30-24 win in Baltimore last week in which they gained 423 yards and held the Ravens to just 306 yards.  Derrick Henry became the league’s first 1,000-yard rusher last week, and his job just got a lot easier here with the Colts missing arguably their most important player on defense in DeForest Buckner due to Covid-19.  In fact several players are out for the Colts due to Covid-19, including starting RB Jonathan Taylor.  The Titans are getting healthy at the right time and will be in much better shape to beat the Colts than they were 2 weeks ago.  Philip Rivers is nursing a toe injury, and he’ll be without starting C Ryan Kelly.  NFL teams that won last week after trailing by 11-plus at halftime are 26-38-1 SU & 19-45-1 ATS in their last 65 tries.  The Colts came back from 14 down to beat the Packers last week and will be fatigued.  They also benefited from 4 turnovers by the Packers, which is uncharacteristic for Aaron Rodgers and company.  The Titans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team with a winning home record.  Take Tennessee.

7* NCAAF Game of the Year on Louisiana-Monroe +28.5

The Key: Louisiana-Lafayette had 33 players on coronavirus protocol last week and had their game cancelled.  Head coach Billy Napier came down with it as well and hasn’t been able to be at practice all week.  This team should not be laying 28.5 points in a rivalry game against Louisiana-Monroe.  They haven’t won a single game by more than 28 points this year, and Monroe has only 2 losses by more than 25 points this year.  6 of the last 7 matchups were decided by a single score, including only a 31-30 win by Louisiana last year as a 20.5-point favorite.  And Louisiana has their huge game with Appalachian State on deck next week so this just screams flat spot for them this week.  The dog is 16-3-1 ATS in the last 20 matchups.  Take Louisiana-Monroe.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Oregon State +14

The Key: The Oregon State Beavers are a team on the rise in the Pac-12.  They went 5-7 last year but had 3 losses by 3 points or fewer.  And this year they brought back 14 starters.  They are just 1-2, but the losses came by 10 points to Washington State and only by 6 to Washington.  They beat Cal last week and believe they are good enough to beat Oregon.  I like the price here on Oregon State catching 14 points considering they only lost by 14 to a much better Oregon team last year.  This Oregon team is 3-0 but not as good as last year.  They barely got by UCLA 38-35 last week as 18.5-point favorites and were outgained by the Bruins in the win.  The Beavers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as underdogs.  The Beavers are 7-0 in their last 7 home games following a home game.  Take Oregon State.

7* NCAAB Dog of the Week on South Dakota State +10.5

The Key: South Dakota State went 22-10 last year and now returns all 5 starters.  They return Conference Player of the Year Douglas Wilson, who averages 18.7 PPG and 6.4 RPG last year.  He and fellow big man Matt Dentlinger combined to shoot 62.8% from the field.  Dentlinger averaged 12.2 PPG and 6.0 RPG.  Sophomores Alex Arians and David Wingett combined for 17.4 PPG and 11.3 RPG last year while both shooting at least 35% from 3-point range.  Noah Freidel averaged 12.2 PPG and shot 39.5% from 3 and 85.2% from he line.  And they have good depth with Baylor Sheierman (6.0 PPG) and Tray Buchanan (6.3 PPG).  The Jackrabbits are live underdogs tonight, and are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games as a dog.  Take South Dakota State.

7* Rams/Bucs MNF *Total* Annihilator on OVER 47

The Key: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are rolling offensively this season.  They are scoring 29.6 PPG on the year and coming off a 46-point, 544-yard effort against the Panthers last week in which they did not have to punt once.  The Rams will offer more resistance defensively than the Panthers did, but the Bucs are going to get their points.  And Jared Goff and company are going to have to try and keep up.  The Rams have actually been their best offensively on the road this year.  They are scoring 26.4 PPG and averaging 427.6 YPG on the highway.  Bets on the OVER on any team where the total is 42.5 to 49 a good passing team (6.7-7.3 YPA) against a good passing defense (5.3-5.9 YPA) after 8 or more games after gaining 8 or more YPA last game are 29-7 since 1983.  The OVER is 5-0 in Rams last 5 games as underdogs.  The OVER is 6-1 in Bucs last 7 games as home favorites.  It’s expected to be 72 degrees with less than 10 MPH winds Monday night in Tampa Bay.  Take the OVER.

7* NFC Game of the Year on Dallas Cowboys +7.5

The Key: The Cowboys have been much more competitive in their last 2 games against the Eagles and Steelers.  And now they have a bye week to get ready for the Minnesota Vikings.  They still have a shot to win the NFC East because the division has been so poor, so look for them to be revived off their bye week.  The Vikings are on a short week after playing the Bears Monday night.  So the situation really favors the Cowboys, and I like the price with them catching more than a touchdown.  There’s a good chance Andy Dalton returns at quarterback and either way they’ll be fine as Garrett Gilbert played well against the Steelers.  Bets against home favorites after covering 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, with a winning percentage between 40% and 49% on the season are 24-5 ATS since 1983.  Take Dallas.

7* NCAAF Upset Game of the Year on Nevada ML +105

The Key: I’ve backed Nevada 3 times already this season and am 3-0 with them.  Fortunately I stayed off them last time out when they didn’t cover against New Mexico.  But I’m back on them again this week at a great price when they should not be home underdogs to San Diego State.  The Wolf Pack are 4-0 this season and about to improve to 5-0 here against a SDSU team that has a bad loss to San Jose State already, and 3 easy wins over terrible teams in UNL, Utah Stat and Hawaii.  This is an experience Nevada team that returned 17 starters this year and Jay Norvell has coached them up well.  The Wolf Pack are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as home underdogs.  They have won their last 2 meetings with San Diego State outright as underdogs and will do it for a 3rd straight year here.  Take Nevada.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on UMass +33.5

The Key: Florida Atlantic can’t be laying 33.5 points to anyone with their putrid offense.  The Owls are scoring just 20.4 PPG and averaging 323 YPG this year.  UMass is not good, but this will be their easiest opponent they have faced this year after road losses to Georgia Southern and Marshall.  And they’ve had 2 weeks to get ready for Florida Atlantic while the Owls played FIU last week.  It’s an experienced UMass team that returned 14 starters this year while FAU only returned 9 starters and has a new head coach in Willie Taggart, who has been a disaster as a coach in recent years.  The Owls are 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 against a team with a losing record.  The Owls are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 Friday games.  Take UMass.

7* Cardinals/Seahawks NFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Seattle -3

The Key: The Seahawks will be extra hungry tonight after losing 3 of their last 4 following that 5-0 start.  One of those losses was to the Cardinals in overtime back on October 25th. And all 3 losses were on the road.  The Seahawks are back home now where they are 4-0 this year.  And with the division title possibly on the line here, I think we get the best version of the Seahawks and Russell Wilson.  The Cardinals have allowed 30 or more points in 3 straight games and a lot of that has to do with losing their best defender in DE Chandler Jones to injury.  Seattle is 32-15-4 ATS in its last 51 games off an ATS loss.  Pete Carroll has gone 12-2 ATS after 2 or more straight losses as the coach of the Seahawks.  Bets against dogs or PK who went over the total by 28 or more points in their last 3 games, in division games are 35-8 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take Seattle.

7* WMU/CMU MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Central Michigan -1.5

The Key: Central Michigan made the MAC Championship Game in Jim McElwain’s first season on the job last year.  He is doing big things here for the Chippewas already.  They are off to a 2-0 start this season with a 30-27 win over Ohio as 2.5-point home dogs and a 40-10 blowout of Northern Illinois as 6-point road favorites.  The defense has been very good in allowing just 294.5 YPG and they are outgaining those two opponents by 135.5 YPG.  Western Michigan was fortunate to beat Toledo last week after trailing by 10 with just under 3 minutes left and getting 2 TD’s in the final minutes after an onside kick to win 41-38.  Even after 2 TD drives late they were still outgained by 64 yards by Toledo for the game.  Last year Central Michigan outgained Western Michigan on the road but lost 15-31 in a misleading final after committing 3 turnovers.  The Chippewas get revenge at home this time around.  The Broncos are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games as underdog.  Western Michigan is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games off an ATS win.  The Broncos are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games.  Central Michigan is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 home games.  The Chippewas are 10-0-1 ATS in their last 11 Wednesday games.  The favorite is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 matchups.  Take Central Michigan.

7* Akron/Kent State MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Akron +26

The Key: The Akron Zips really impressed me last week in their 10-24 loss at Ohio as 27-point dogs.  This was a 7-point game late and they were in it for 4 quarters.  They gained 435 yards on offense and only gave up 307 yards on defense and probably deserved to win outright.  Now they are catching 26 points from Kent State tonight.  Kent State only beat Eastern Michigan by 4 and then crushed the worst team in the MAC in Bowling Green by 38 last week.  That win over Bowling Green has the Golden Flashes getting too much respect from oddsmakers in this matchup.  Kent State is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games as a home favorite.  The underdog is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 matchups.  Take Akron.

7* Vikings/Bears MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Chicago +3

The Key: The Chicago Bears are hungry for a win coming off 3 straight losses.  Those 3 losses were to 3 of the best teams in the NFL in the Saints, Rams and Titans.  Now they take a step down in competition here against the 3-5 Minnesota Vikings.  This is a very bad Vikings defense that yields 29.3 PPG and 413 YPG.  And while the Minnesota offense has put up good numbers this year, it has come against awful defenses outside the Colts, who they only managed 11 points against.  And the Bears are the Vikings’ kryptonite.  Chicago only gives up 21.1 PPG and 335 YPG this year.  The Bears are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 matchups with the Vikings while yielding only 16.3 PPG in those 6 contests.  They have won the last 4 outright.  Take Chicago.

7* NFC East Game of the Year on Philadelphia Eagles -3.5

The Key: The Philadelphia Eagles are off their bye week and getting healthy to make a run in the 2nd half of the season.  They now have 4 playmakers back that they didn’t have before in RB Sanders, WR Jeffery, TE Goedert and WR Raegor.  They also have their 2 best offensive linemen back and healthy now in Johnson and Peters.  They didn’t have any of these guys when they played the Giants the first time.  They still managed to beat the Giants and put up 422 yards on them while limiting the Giants to just 305 yards.  That’s nothing new in this series as the Eagles are 8-0 SU in their last 8 matchups with the Giants.      The Giants only have 2 wins all season, and they both came against Washington by a combined 4 points.  And they only beat Washington by 3 last week despite being +5 in turnovers.  The Giants are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as home dogs of 7 points or less.  Take Philadelphia.

7* Big 12 Game of the Month on West Virginia -3

The Key: West Virginia is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are just 4-3 this season but could easily be 7-0.  Their stats are that of a 6-1 team or better.  They are outgaining teams by 179 YPG this season and 1.2 YPP.  They had a win taken away from them last week by the refs at Texas as they refused to call a pass interference in the end zone on 4th down when they were going in for the game winning score.  Look for the Mountaineers to come back with a chip on their shoulder this week and make easy work of TCU.  The Horned Frogs rely heavily on their rushing game to move the football.  West Virginia only gives up 109 RYPG and 3.3 YPR this year.  They’ll stop the run with their elite defense and score enough points on this TCU defense to win this game with room to spare.  The Mountaineers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games off a game where they forced no turnovers.  The Mountaineers are 4-0 at home this year and winning by 25.0 PPG.  Take West Virginia.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on East Carolina +28

The Key: East Carolina is better than its 1-5 record would suggest.  They had a win against Tulsa stolen from them by the refs.  And they haven’t lost by more than 23 points this year.  That 23-point loss came to UCF, a team that just runs at a frantic pace and puts up a lot of points on everyone.  Last year ECU only lost 43-46 at home to Cincinnati as a 24.5-point underdog.  The Pirates put up over 600 yards of offense in that defeat thanks to 535 passing yards and 5 total touchdowns from QB Holton Ahlers, who is back leading this ECU offense this season and having another great year.  Cincinnati has covered 3 in a row in wins over SMU, Houston and Memphis and now the price is too steep on them, especially since they are ranked in the Top 10 right now and getting 4-team playoff hype.  And they play UCF next week so could easily be looking ahead to that game and buying into the hype.  This game will be a lot closer than the oddsmakers expect.  Plus the Pirates are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as road dogs.  Take East Carolina.

7* Colts/Titans AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Tennessee +1

The Key: The Tennessee Titans have picked up right where they left off last season.  They have gone 6-2 after making it all the way to the AFC Championship last year.  And for some reason this team just keeps flying under the radar.  Ryan Tannehill has played like an MVP since taking over at starting QB, and AJ Brown is one of the best receivers in the NFL.  Derrick Henry gets better as the season goes on and will be a big factor for them in the 2nd half of the season here.  The Colts have played the 32nd-ranked schedule in the NFL.  Their two toughest games they lost to the Ravens 10-24 at home and the Browns 23-32 on the road.  They also lost to the Jaguars in the opener.  I know the Colts have a great defense, but their offense leaves a lot to be desired as Philip Rivers just isn’t playing well at all.  Rivers has 10 touchdowns against 7 interceptions on the season.  Tannehill has 19 touchdowns and only 3 picks this year.  Henry has 843 yards and 8 touchdowns in 8 games and is on pace to lead the NFL in rushing.  The Titans are 4-1 at home this year with their only loss to the Steelers, who are 8-0 this year.  Take Tennessee.

7* Toledo/Western Michigan MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Western Michigan -2.5

The Key: The Western Michigan Broncos got in 8 spring practices and started off the season like gangbusters with their 58-13 throttling of Akron last week.  They outgained the Zips by 4.3 YPP in that game.  Toledo also had a nice win last week in a 38-3 victory over Bowling Green.  But head coach Jason Candle is struggling the last 2 seasons at Toledo with a combined 13-12 record.  The Rockets are on the decline and the Broncos have a great chance to beat them after losing the last 2 meetings.  Western Michigan went 6-0 at home last year, while Toledo is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 road games.  I like that combination here and the price with the Broncos as only 2.5-point home favorites.  Take Western Michigan.

7* Miami/Buffalo MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo -9.5

The Key: The Buffalo Bulls are loaded with 15 returning starters and the most talent in the MAC this season.  They are the favorites to win the conference.  They have everyone back on offense except for a couple offensive linemen from a unit that average 31.5 PPG last year.  That have 7 starters back on D from a unit that only gave up 21.3 PPG.  And they had 9 spring practices to boot.  Buffalo outgained Northern Illinois by 2.0 YPP in the opener and won 49-30 after leading 49-16.  Miami was outgained by 1.1 YPP by Ball State in the opener and was lucky to win 38-31.  Miami was also lucky to beat Buffalo last year despite getting outgained by 133 yards because they won the turnover battle 4-0.  They won’t be so fortunate in 2020 as Buffalo makes a statement here and avenges that defeat.  The Redhawks could be without starting QB Gabbert and they will be without their top 2 rushers from last year in Bester and Shelton.  The Bulls have won 7 of their last 8 games all by 19 points or more and are 7-1 ATS over that span.  Take Buffalo.

7* Patriots/Jets MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on New England -7

The Key: The New York Jets are 0-8 SU & 1-7 ATS this season.  They are losing by 18 PPG and all 8 losses have come by 8 points or more.  The Patriots still have hope to get back in this division race even after their loss to Buffalo last week.  It’s not like the Bills are playing great right now, and the Patriots had their chance to beat them, only losing by a field goal after Cam Newton fumbled.  The Patriots should get back on the winning track here against the Jets, who they have owned through the years.  That should continue in 2020 with the Jets being easily the worst team in the NFL right now.  Take New England.

7* Saints/Bucs NFC South Game of the Year on Tampa Bay -4.5

The Key: The Tampa Bay Bucs have gone 6-1 in their last 7 games overall and have outscored those 7 teams by 13.3 PPG.  They have been a completely different team since losing to the Saints in the opener, and now they are out to prove it and grab a stranglehold on this division as they get revenge at home.  The Bucs have scored at least 25 points in all 6 of their wins this year with an explosive offense.  They give up only 20.6 PPG and less than 300 YPG on the season with one of the top defenses in the NFL.  The Saints have won 4 straight games by 6 points or less and have been very fortunate.  They have a leaky defense that allows 28.1 PPG this year.  And Drew Brees isn’t what he used to be and is dealing with a shoulder injury right now.  The Saints are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games off 2 consecutive wins by 3 points or fewer.  Take Tampa Bay.

7* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Year on Liberty +15

The Key: The Liberty Flames are undefeated this season which includes a 17-point road win over Syracuse from the ACC.  This will be their toughest game yet, but they will be up to the task catching 15 points against the Virginia Tech Hokies.  Liberty is averaging 40 PPG this year and giving up only 24 PPG and 303 YPG.  They are loaded on offense behind former Auburn QB Malik Willis.  They are outgaining their opponents by 191 YPG this year.  Virginia Tech is giving up 31 PPG and 459 YPG this year.  They also give up 195 rushing yards per game, which is going to be a problem for them against a Liberty team that rushed for 257 yards per game.  Take Liberty.

7* Miami/NC State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on OVER 58.5

The Key: The OVER is 5-1 in NC State games this season.  The Wolfpack are built for high scoring games with a very good offense and a terrible defense.  They are giving up 34.2 PPG this year and have allowed 40-plus 3 times in 6 games.  They are scoring 31.5 PPG and even though they recently lost starting QB Devin Leary, they still managed to pass for 358 yards against UNC last time out.  Miami now has an elite offense this year thanks to Houston transfer D’Eriq King.  The Hurricanes have scored 31 or more points in 4 of their 6 games this year and will have no problem getting to 40-plus in this one.  The OVER is 3-0-1 in Hurricanes last 4 games as road favorites.  The OVER is 5-0 in Wolfpack last 5 games as an underdog.  Take the OVER.