3* NBA Playoffs "TOTAL" Blowout on Celtics/Bulls OVER 200.5
Each of the first two games of this series have conquered this number and I expect the pace to stay fast and furious with the series shifting to Chicago. Kevin Garnett and Leon Powe are a big part of Boston's defense and without these guys in the lineup, the Celtics have struggled on that end of the floor. We have seen the over in each of the last 4 matchups in this series with each team scoring at least 103 points in those games. Think about this; Boston is 38-1 OVER in road games where both teams score 98 or more points in a game over the last 3 seasons. The average total score in these games is 217.5 points. Also, Chicago is 16-4 OVER versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season. The average total score in these games is 211.3. Bet the Over tonight.

4* Major NBA Playoffs "TOTAL" Blowout on Rockets/Blazers OVER 183.5
We saw Game 1 go over without much of a contribution from the home team. I like this one to go over as well as Portland plays much better offensively in Game 2. Here's the key: Portland is a perfect 7-0 OVER as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points this season with the average score totaling 206.7 points in these games. Portland is 15-5 OVER period when playing against a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season this season with the average score in these games totaling 198.3 points. Lastly, Portland is 15-6 OVER when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. an opponent this season with the average score totaling 199.3 in these games. Bet the Over!

4* Major NBA Playoffs "TOTAL" Blowout on Heat/Hawks UNDER 186
We've seen the Heat and the Hawks play to the Under in all 4 meetings this season, with the highest total score being just 174 points. Atlanta's defense has been exceptional at home this season and I expect to see that continue in the playoffs. In fact, Atlanta is 10-2 UNDER in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season and 11-1 UNDER when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) this season. The Under is 5-0 in the Heat's last 5 vs. a team with a winning SU record and 4-0 in the Hawks last 4 vs. a team with a winning SU record. Bet the Under.

3* NBA Playoffs "TOTAL" BLOWOUT on Pistons/Cavs OVER 175
These are two defensive minded teams, but the books have set the bar too low for game one. Both of these teams have been playing to the over lately with Cleveland going over the total in 6 of its last 8 and Detroit going over in 12 of its last 17. The Over is 11-4-1 in the Pistons last 16 vs. the Eastern Conference, 7-3-1 in the Pistons last 11 road games, and 14-6-1 in the Pistons last 21 overall. The intensity picks up as a playoff series goes on so I don't expect these teams to be at their best defensively in game 1. I'll bet the over.

3* NBA Total of the Week on Pacers/Hawks UNDER 212
Atlanta's defense has been exceptional at home this season, allowing only 92.7 ppg. The last time the Pacers visited Atlanta on March 13th, the Hawks held them to just 87 points in a games which totaled just 188. Indiana is 21-4 UNDER when they score 93 to 98 points in a game over the last 2 seasons and this is the range my game estimator has placed them in tonight. The Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Atlanta, 10-4 in Hawks last 14 home games, and 5-1 in Hawks last 6 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Bet the Under.

4* Major NBA Total of the Week on Celtics/Magic UNDER 191.5
This head to head result could be the deciding factor in which of these teams finishes with a better record, and therefore earns home court advantage if they are to meet in the playoffs. With the stakes that high, I expect defense to take center stage in this one. The last 2 meetings in this series have been very intense defensively and the result has been total score of 170 and 165. Boston is 13-3 UNDER in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season, 10-1 UNDER in road games off a home win by 10 points or more this season, and 19-5 UNDER in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins this season. Orlando is 13-3 UNDER versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season and 9-1 UNDER after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games this season. Bet the Under.

3* Magic/Cavs "TOTAL" BLOWOUT on Magic/Cavs UNDER 194
The Cavs defense has been something to behold this season, allowing only 88.4 ppg at home. With this being a revenge spot for Cleveland, which lost in Orlando back in late January, I expect that defense to really get turned up here. First off, Cleveland is 17-8 UNDER when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points this season. Cleveland is 10-1 UNDER in March home games over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 5-0 in Cavaliers last 5 home games, 12-4 in Cavaliers last 16 vs. Eastern Conference, 7-1 in Magic last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, and 7-2 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams. Bet the Under!

3* Sunday NBA BEST BET on Mavs/Lakers OVER 211
Dallas is 9-1 OVER in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score in these spots totals 218.1 points. The Over is also 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. The Over gets the call here.

3* Saturday Night NBA BEST BET on Spurs/Rockets UNDER 184
In 2 meetings this season, we've seen these 2 teams put up totals of 152 and 187. In the game where 187 points were scored, the Spurs allowed the Rockets to score over 100 points and there's no way that happens here. This matchup is always a physical defensive game so it comes as no surprise that 8 of the L10 games have gone under the number the last 3 seasons. Looking back even further, the Under is 21-6 in the last 27 meetings. The odds makers have designated a point total range here that usually always gets the public on the over, but the numbers indicate that that is the wrong call. The Spurs are 15-5 UNDER in road games where the total is between 180 and 184.5 points over the last 2 seasons and the Rockets are 10-1 UNDER in home game where where the total is between 180 and 184.5 points over the last 2 seasons. What will really magnify the intensity of this matchup is the fact that Houston pulled even with the Spurs in the win column with last night's win over Charlotte. The last thing to keep in mind is that both of these teams are similar in that they step up their defense more than anything else in big games and the result has been an unders machine. The UNDER is 20-6 in the Rockets last 26 vs. a team with a winning SU record and 17-5 in the Spurs last 22 vs. a team with a winning SU record. Bet the Under.

4* Major NBA on TNT Total of the Year on Cavs/Suns UNDER 219
The Suns have been scoring tons of points under their new coach and that has taken this number way too high. Cleveland is one of the premier defensive teams in the NBA, allowing just 92.3 ppg on the road this season. When these teams met last month, the Cavs held the Suns to just 92 points. Good defenses have been able to slow down Phoenix as just recently the Magic and Spurs have held it under the century mark. One major thing to consider is that the Under is 6-0 in the Suns last 6 games as a home underdog. Lastly, plays under on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHOENIX) - after 3 or more consecutive losses, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 35-12 since 1996. Bet the Under!

3* NBA Total Annihilator on Knicks/Pistons UNDER 206.5
Plain and simple. The Under is a perfect 10-0 for Detroit when revenging a straight up loss as a favorite this season. The average total score in these contests is 176.5 points. The Knicks defeated the Pistons 104-92 in the last meeting and Detroit will take that very personally here. With NY having just played last night, the Knicks won't have enough legs to take this one over against one of the best defensive teams in the NBA in a revenge spot.

4* Major NBA Vegas Line Mistake of the Week on Magic/Pistons UNDER 187
Detroit knows it can't get in a shootout with the Magic. The Pistons will rely on solid halfcourt defense and a slower tempo at home tonight and that game plan is very conducive of an unders situation here. In the first two meetings this season, we've seen these teams score 170 and 178 total points respectively. One thing we have come to count on is Detroit playing its best defense against the best teams and the result has been an unders machine. Detroit is 18-6 UNDER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) over the last 2 seasons. The average combined score in these games totaled just 181. 2 points. Detroit is 9-1 UNDER in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with the average combined score totaling just 175.7 points in these spots. Bet the Under.

3* NBA Total of the Week on Suns/Spurs UNDER 219.5
Odds makers have been forced to post a high number here by the Suns recent totals, but this game is at San Antonio and the Spurs will look to enforce their half court, slow down style of play. With Steve Nash and Grany Hill both banged up for Phoenix, the Suns' transition game will not be running at full strength today. Plays under on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (SAN ANTONIO) - after beating the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 35-9 since 1996.

5* Friday Night NBA "TOTAL" BLOWOUT on Bucks/Hornets UNDER 200.5
New Orleans is allowing just 90.8 ppg at home this season. That one number tells me how badly the books have missed this one. Milwaukee's poor defensive play of late has elevated this line, but after getting stomped by Dallas, expect the Bucks to play much tougher tonight. This line is also elevated by the fact that 7 straight have gone over in this series. Squares are going to see that and jump. But the Under is 9-2 in the Hornets last 11 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5, 11-4 in Hornets last 15 Friday games, and 13-6-1 in Hornets last 20 vs. Eastern Conference. The Under is also 4-1 in Bucks last 5 games as a road underdog. Plays under on road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (MILWAUKEE) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, on Friday nights are 73-37 under since 1996. This system shows you how odds makers elevate lines as team continue to go over or under them. The value is high in this one. Bet the Under!

3* NBA on TNT "TOTAL" Annihilator on Cavs/Rockets UNDER 184.5
Expect a defensive battle in Houston tonight as Houston has held 4 of its last 5 opponents under 88 points and the Cavs have held 3 of their last 4 under 79 points. Here is the game-breaker: Houston is 10-1 UNDER in a home game where where the total is between 180 and 184.5 points over the last 2 seasons. The average score in these games was 175.6 points. The Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Houston and 8-2 in the last 10 meetings. Bet the Under!

5* NBA Total of the Year on Bucks/Mavs OVER 208
After scoring just 76 points last night in San Antonio, expect the Mavs to have an offensive explosion tonight against a Bucks team that has allowed 110 or more points in 6 of their last 7. On the other side of the coin, the Bucks have scored 120 or more in 4 of their last 7 and have scored 103 or more in 6 of their last 7. The Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Dallas and Over is 12-3 in the last 15 meetings overall. The Over is 4-0 in Mavericks last 4 vs. NBA Central and 7-1 in Mavericks last 8 vs. a team with a losing SU record. The Over is 12-3 in Bucks last 15 vs. a team with a winning SU record and 5-1 in Bucks last 6 games as an underdog. Bet the Over!

3* ESPN Prime Time Total on Pistons/Cavs UNDER 179.5
The under has to be the play here as these teams have taken things Under in 6 straight over the last 2 seasons and 12 of 16 over the last 3 seasons. While Detroit's offense is lacking, its defense has still been rock solid, and that has this one poised for the under again. Cleveland won 90-80 on Feb. 1 and that is key for a couple different reasons. First, because only 170 points were scored. Second, because Detroit is 7-0 UNDER revenging a home loss vs. an opponent this season. Bet the Under.

4* Major NBA National TV Total Annihilator on Celtics/Suns UNDER 224.5
With Garnett out for Boston and Stoudemire for the Suns, those are two big missing pieces that will help keep this one under. Boston has been an unders machine on the road at 20-8 under away from home this season. They have been even better against the league's best offenses, going 10-2 UNDER in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season. The average score in these games totaled 187.3 points. Boston is also 9-1 UNDER in road non-conference games this season. Teams from the west aren't used to seeing a defense like this one. The books have been forced to keep this number high because of what the Suns have done each of the last 3 games, but that was against the Clippers and Thunder. This one goes Under Sunday.

3* NBA "TOTAL" REVENGER on Spurs/Pistons UNDER 181
Expect a defensive battle in Detroit to come in under the number tonight. The Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in this matchup. In the last 7 meetings between these teams, only 2 games have reach 170 or more points and neither of those reached the 180 mark. The Under is 7-1 in Spurs last 8 vs. NBA Central and 16-5-1 in Pistons last 22 vs. NBA Southwest. The Under is also 7-1 in Pistons last 8 vs. a team with a winning SU record. In the first meeting this season, we saw 166 points scored and I expect a similar result tonight. Take the Under.

4* Major NBA Total of the Week (ESPN) on Magic/Hornets UNDER 189.5
Both of these teams came away with hard fought wins last night and will not have enough left to push this one over. When these teams met on Christmas Day, we only saw 156 total points scored. With Nelson out for the Magic and now with Chandler gone for the Hornets, both of these teams are without key players and that is going to make a big difference against good teams. NO is 9-1 UNDER in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) over the last 2 seasons, the average points scored in these games is 185.4. NO is also 10-1 UNDER in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score in these games totaled just 182.7 points. Bet the Under!

4* Major NBA "TOTAL" Annihilator on Bucks/Pistons UNDER 196
Milwaukee has been offensively challenged on the road of late, due to its injury problems to key players, and it comes up against one of the better defensive teams in the NBA tonight. The Pistons are allowing just 93.9 ppg this season and I expect a very good defensive effort tonight as they'll be fresh coming off the All-Star break. In fact, the Under is 5-1 in the Pistons last 6 games playing on 3 or more days rest. The Under is also 4-1 in the Bucks last 5 road games. Lastly, plays Under on Road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MILWAUKEE) - off an home win scoring 110 or more points, second half of the season are 46-19 the last 5 seasons. Bet the Under.

4* Major NBA Total of the Week on Blazers/Warriors UNDER 217.5
Scoring 144 points, like the Warriors did last time out, forces odds makers to set an inflated number. We'll make them pay for doing so here as the Blazers will have no part in Golden State's up and down game. Portland averages just 95.8 ppg and allows 96.8 ppg on the road this season. 6 straight in this matchup have not topped this number and 20 of the last 21. The one that did was a 218 point total. Portland is 27-12 UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 200 over the last 2 seasons, 16-6 UNDER in road games second half of the season over the last 2 seasons, and 23-7 UNDER versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 103+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score in all 3 of these systems doesn't come even close to the number we are faced with today. Bet the Under.

3* National TV Total SMASH on Lakers/Cavs UNDER 206
3 straight and 5 of the last 6 in this series have gone under the number and this is the highest number we have seen during this stretch. While the Lakers won the first meeting this season, the Cavs have had great success against LA because they have been able to control the tempo and because they are a solid defensive team. Cleveland is only allowing 89.0 ppg at home this season. With this being the last game of a long road trip for LA, I expect the Lakers not to mind playing a little bit more half court basketball. Cleveland is 19-6 UNDER in home games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons, average total in these games is 185.3. The Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Cleveland, 4-0 in Cavaliers last 4 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less, and 9-4 in Lakers last 13 games as an underdog. Bet the Under!

4* Major NBA "TOTAL" Dominator on Timberwolves/Rockets UNDER 200.5
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. Every time Houston plays at home you have to give the under a look as the Rockets are 41-26 UNDER in home games over the last 2 seasons. This is a solid spot to take the Under here. The Under is 4-1 in Rockets last 5 games following a SU loss, 6-2 in Rockets last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, and 19-9 in Rockets last 28 games as a home favorite. Bet the Under!

3* SMASH on Heat/Pistons UNDER 180
Detroit is 16-5 UNDER when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season, with the average score totaling 177.4 ppg in these spots. Detroit has gone UNDER in 3 straight games and 5 of the last 7 matchups in this series have gone under. Detroit's defense has really started to pick it up but the offense is yet to match. With Miami in a letdown spot off a blowout win, I'll take the Under here.

3* SMASH on Lakers/Raptors OVER 214.5
LA has scored 110 or more points in 4 straight, and with Bynum out, I expect the offense to continue to push the ball more to get more transition buckets and less baskets in the Triangle Offense. Also, with Bynum out, the defense will suffer, especially on the road where LA is already giving up over 100 ppg this season. Plays Over on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (LA LAKERS) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, in non-conference games are 27-9 the past 5 seasons. Take the Over!

3* SMASH on Clippers/Magic UNDER 199
Without Jameer Nelson, the Magic offense is not going to be a smooth sailing ship for a while. The Clippers offense has really struggled, scoring 95 or less in 6 straight games and they face one of the NBA's elite defensive teams tonight, allowing only 91.4 ppg at home. The Under is 4-0 in the Magic last 4 games as a home favorite of 11.0 or greater and 10-2 in the Magic last 12 games as a home favorite period. Bet the Under!

5* Friday Night NBA Total of the Year on Clippers/Cavs UNDER 189
The books have set this number just under the 190 mark because it looks attractive to the overs-loving Joe public, but I have this one finishing 10 points under this number. Cleveland just played and emotionally and physically draining game in Orlando last night, and while it now has the incentive to bounce back, you're not going to see Cleveland get up for the Clippers. Each of the last 2 games at Cleveland has gone under the number in this matchup with scores totaling 171 and 182. Defensively, Cleveland has been sensational at home, allowing teams only 89 ppg and that is a big reason why this one stays under. The Under is 5-1 in Cavaliers last 6 vs. NBA Pacific, 10-3 in Cavaliers last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400, and 36-17-1 in Cavaliers last 54 Friday games. Bet the Under!

5* NBA "TOTAL" Dominator on Hawks/Knicks OVER 207
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. The books have set the bar too low here. The Knicks average 107.3 ppg at home but also allow 106.8. The Hawks are a very athletic team and will match the Knicks bucket for bucket tonight. This one is going to be a shootout. The last time we saw these teams play in NY we saw 220 points score and the Hawks have extra incentive to come quick tonight after laying an egg against Miami. Atlanta is 24-11 OVER versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Take the Over.

4* Major NBA Total of the Week on Celtics/Magic UNDER 192.5
Expect a defensive battle tonight as these teams battle it out for Eastern Conference supremacy. In the first meeting this season, we saw 195 points scored, but that was with Boston busting out for 107 and I don't see that here. Boston just played last night and that should slow it down some, but not enough to be competitive in what the Celtics hope will be a statement game for them. Boston is 11-4 UNDER in its last 15. Boston is 15-6 UNDER in road games this season, 8-0 UNDER after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half this season, and 11-3 UNDER in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins this season. Orlando is 15-5 UNDER after scoring 100 points or more 4 straight games over the last 2 seasons. Plays under on home teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (ORLANDO) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a road win by 10 points or more are 79-39 since 1996. Take the Under!

3* NBA on TNT Prime Time TOTAL on Cavs/Bulls OVER 194.5
With Chicago playing back-to-back and Cleveland well rested, there's no way the Bulls will be able to slow down the Cavs here. The Bulls are allowing 102.9 ppg this season and 105.1 ppg when playing back-to-back this season. These teams have already played three times this season with each game going over this number. The Bulls are getting healthier and they will be up for this national TV challenge against the best in the East so I expect to see Chicago filling up the basket as well. 8 of 11 games in this matchup over the last 3 seasons have gone over the number and 4 of 5 have gone over in Chicago. The Over is 10-1 in the Bulls last 11 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600, 6-1 in the Bulls last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game, and 4-0 in the Bulls last 4 games as an underdog. Bet the Over.