|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|01-16-13||Providence +7.5 v. Georgetown||65-74||Loss||-105||8 h 28 m||Show|
3* on Providence +
Providence has played a tough schedule to start the Big East season, having to go to Louisville and Seton Hall while hosting Syracuse and DePaul. It's no surprise they have won only one of those games, but it does raise an eyebrow the game came last time out against Seton Hall and not at home against DePaul. However, finally ending the five game losing streak and winning a conference game should give them some confidence tonight against the Hoyas.
Georgetown has a big win back in early December over Texas, but the Longhorns have disappointed this year. They did play tough at Marquette but got embarrassed by 28 at home against Pitt. They haven't played as tough of a schedule as the Friars, which is why their stats look a little better.
I wouldn't expect this game to be very high scoring as Georgetown allows just 55.4 ppg while Providence gives up 62.2. Neither team excels offensively, but the Friars do have a little more firepower on that end of the floor than the Hoyas do. With points at a premium tonight, I'll take a decent size underdog to win.
|01-15-13||Milwaukee Bucks v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 212.5||88-104||Win||100||14 h 15 m||Show|
4* Total NO BRAINER on Bucks/Lakers UNDER 212.5
The Lakers have had some high totals recently and for good reason as they were both scoring and giving up over 100 points per game. Dwight Howard returned against the Cavs on Sunday though and LA held Cleveland to just 93 points. I think that trend continues here tonight as they have held opponents to just 43.7% shooting at home, including 32.1% from 3-point range.
Milwaukee hasn't scored as well on the road, but interestingly enough they have played better defense than at home, giving up just 95.9 ppg outside of Milwaukee. The Bucks have seen 3 of the four totals go OVER since Skiles was fired, but none of those were set anywhere near as high as tonight's. Lots of value in the UNDER here and I'll take it.
A great system supports our play that says to take the UNDER when one team is off a home blowout win of 20 points or more and their opponent is off a road win of 10 or more. This system has gone 92-46 (66.7%) for the UNDER since 1996. Another situation that applies says to take the UNDER when a team is on the road with a total of 210 or more and they are coming off an upset win as a double digit underdog. These teams are 47-16 (74.6%) for the UNDER since 1996.
|01-15-13||Indiana Pacers -7.5 v. Charlotte Bobcats||Top||103-76||Win||100||13 h 35 m||Show|
5* NO LIMIT on Indiana Pacers -
Indiana had been rolling along, winning four in a row and 10 of their last 12 before a loss in Brooklyn on Sunday. They are going to want to right the ship tonight against the Bobcats, a team they just beat on Saturday night at home by eight points. There is plenty of value in this one as well since Indiana hasn't covered their last four times out.
The Bobcats are going to have a tough time putting up points since they only average 95.5 ppg and Indiana is holding their foes to just 89.3 not he year. Indiana on the other hand should be able to get things going as the Bobcats allow 103.6 ppg.
Back in early November Indiana traveled to Charlotte and lost by a single point. You can bet that point has been hammered home to them and they will come out hungry from the opening tip, and pull away fast. Indiana needs to take advantage of soft spots in their schedule to make up for their slow start, and they do that tonight.
The Bobcats are 17-34 ATS when playing a team with a winning record the last two seasons and 14-28 ATS at a home underdog.
|01-15-13||Notre Dame -6 v. St. Johns||63-67||Loss||-110||13 h 3 m||Show|
3* HEAVY HITTER on Notre Dame -
The Irish have to come into this game with a chip on their shoulders after losing at home to UConn on Saturday. The loss was only Notre Dame's second of the season so you can bet they didn't like how that game tasted. Plus, ND will be out for revenge against St. John's here tonight after dropping their last two in New York, including a 3-point defeat last year as 6.5 point favorites.
Notre Dame is solid on both end's of the floor. They are scoring 75.6 ppg against teams allowing 66.3 and giving up just 61.1 against teams who normally put up 68.4.
Both teams have played decent schedules, but Notre Dame has wins over BYU, Kentucky, and Purdue on their resume while nothing stands out to me for St. John's.
The Red Storm have lost two in a row at home, first to Rutgers as 3.5 point favorites and then Saturday Georgetown took it to them by 16 points. St. John's is 39-59 ATS at home after a loss since 1997 and 2-9 ATS after two straight games of scoring 65 points or less the last two years.
I'm going with the Irish tonight.
|01-14-13||Cleveland Cavaliers v. Sacramento Kings OVER 203.5||Top||118-124||Win||100||13 h 57 m||Show|
5* NBA Total Dominator on Kings/Cavs OVER
Sacramento's defense has been terrible all year long, but the last four games it's been something special. All four opponents have scored 113 or more points against them and this team hasn't let a team score under 94 points since way back on December 8th. It's no surprise that the Kings have gone OVER in five straight and 10 of their last 11 and I don't think they will have a problem eclipsing this number tonight either.
Cleveland isn't a great offensive team, but they have their own struggles on the defensive side of the ball. On the road they are giving up 100.4 ppg on 47.9% shooting against teams scoring just 96.5 on 44.4%.
This team has allowed 97 or more points in eight of their last nine games.
The Kings are 39-21 OVER when the total is between 200-210 the last three seasons and 14-6 OVER at home this year. Sacramento is 23-11 OVER in non-confernece games the last two years and 15-7 OVER after a loss this year. Finally, since 1996 the Kings are 34-18 OVER at home when playing a team with a winning percentage 25% or lower.
All sign point to a lot of scoring tonight, so take the OVER.
|01-14-13||Elon +1.5 v. Western Carolina||80-67||Win||100||10 h 52 m||Show|
3* HEAVY HITTER on Elon +1.5
Elon had been playing solid basketball to end the 2012 calendar year but have gotten off to a slow start in 2013, losing two straight. However, this is a team that played Duke tough for awhile and even beat South Carolina on the road by 12 points as a 7.5 point underdog.
The Catamounts have won three in a row which is important because it sets them up for a spot they have not done well in in the past. West Caroina is just 35-54 ATS when coming off a win against a conference rival and 14-29 ATS at home after a win since 1997.
This is a short trip for the Phoenix so I don't think there is much in the way of home court advantage for West Carolina tonight. Elon is the better team and should pull off the upset in what is an important game in Southern Conference action.
|01-13-13||Oklahoma City Thunder v. Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 199.5||87-83||Win||100||13 h 42 m||Show|
3* NBA Total Dominator on Thunder/Blazers UNDER
This is a big game for both teams as Portland is trying to establish themselves as a legitimate playoff contender after winning four of their last five and six of their last eight. Now they host a division rival that is the best team in the West.
Oklahoma City hasn't been a slouch on the road, but their shooting dips from 47.9% at home to 46.3% on the road, but behind the arc it goes from 39.6% down to 34.2%. Portland is a team that allows only 31.2% 3-point shooting at home, so the Thunder are not going to be able to get as many trips where they get three points instead of two here today.
Earlier this year the odds makers set a total for 205 in Oklahoma City and the two teams played to 198 points. Now they have dropped the number quite a bit and I still don't think it's enough.
A couple of systems that support our pick say to play the UNDER in divisional games when the total is between 190 and 200 when one team is off two straight covers as a favorite. This system is 50-21 (70.4%) the last five seasons. Another one is to play the UNDER with any team that outscores their opponents by 9+ ppg when hey are coming off a blowout win by 15 points or more. This situation is 70-41 (63.1%) for the UNDER the last five years.
|01-13-13||Arizona St +9.5 v. Oregon||65-68||Win||100||13 h 37 m||Show|
4* BAILOUT ATS BLOWOUT on Arizona State +
Oregon knocked off Arizona in what was a great game Thursday night and I think that has set them up for a bit of a letdown tonight. The Wildcat win is fresh in the public's mind so the odds makers had to adjust this line by a point or so to compensate, plus these players have to be feeling pretty a little over-confident after knocking off one of the last remaining unbeatens.
Arizona State on the other hand is a solid basketball team that will give the Ducks a run for their money. They have won six in a row and covered all but one of those games. The Sun Devils went up to Oregon State on Thursday and beat the Beavers as five point underdogs, and I think they will surprise Oregon tonight as well.
Last year Oregon won as an underdog at Arizona State by 9 points. Sun Devils are going to be out for a little payback here today.
|01-12-13||San Francisco +14 v. Saint Marys CA||Top||72-78||Win||100||25 h 22 m||Show|
5* BAILOUT ATS BLOWOUT on San Francisco +
The St. Mary's Gaels are in a letdown spot here today as they take on the 7-9 Dons of San Francisco. On Thursday night the Gaels went up to Gonzaga and played the Zags tough, losing by only five points. Not only will they have trouble getting up for the Dons after such an emotional win, the next game on the schedule sees them take on another strong team in BYU.
San Francisco is better than their record indicates. Sure, they have lost three in a row, but two of those games they covered against tough teams in BYU and at Santa Clara. the Dons also have covers against Ole Miss and St. John's, so they have played teams tough that have more talent than them.
St. Mary's has put up impressive numbers by beating up cupcakes this year. Gonzaga was their first real test and while they played well, they will probably think things go back to normal as they get a sub. 500 team on Saturday. Too bad for them the Dons will come ready to play and keep this one tight.
Solid system that says to take double digit underdogs off an upset loss as a favorite on one day or less of rest. These teams have gone 137-86 (61.4%) since 1997.
|01-12-13||Murray State v. Austin Peay St +10.5||71-68||Win||100||23 h 53 m||Show|
3* MONEY MAKER on Austin Peay +
There is no doubt who the better team here is as Murray State comes in at 11-4 and Austin Peay at 5-12, but there is plenty of value in the home dog on Saturday. Murray State is coming off a tough loss by 12 points at home to E Kentucky, a team they were favored by nine points over. They have now failed to cover in four of their last five games as the Racers are consistently over-valued by odds makers.
Austin Peay had lost either in a row before Wednesday's win over Morehead State, but their previous three losses had been by a total of two points. They are playing competitive and should be able to hang with a Murray State team that has to be looking past a team they beat by double digits twice last year.
|01-12-13||Phoenix Suns v. Chicago Bulls -8.5||97-81||Loss||-105||12 h 55 m||Show|
4* NO DOUBT ROUT on Chicago Bulls -
The Suns are a dreadful 2-17 on the road this year losing by 11.5 ppg so I don't think this number is quite high enough. Last night Phoenix played the Brooklyn Nets tough in the first half and then were absolutely blown out in the 2nd, losing the game by 20. Now they have to travel to Chicago for a quick turnaround against a Bulls team that took it to New York last night.
Both of these teams are playing their third game in four nights, but for Phoenix it will actually be their fourth in five. Plus this is the last game of a four game road trip that has not gone very well, so I imagine the players will be anxious to get back home.
The Bulls have now won four of their last five games. The Bulls beat the Suns by six earlier in the year in Phoenix, so I see another blowout on the horizon tonight as they host the Suns. Phoenix is 19-32 ATS when revenging a loss to an opponent the last two seasons and Chicago is 22-9 ATS playing their 3rd game in four days.
|01-12-13||Utah Jazz v. Detroit Pistons -2||90-87||Loss||-107||11 h 23 m||Show|
3* HEAVY HITTER on Detroit Pistons -
Both of these teams are off back-to-backs, but a couple of things point in the Pistons favor here today. The first is that they blew Milwaukee out 103-87 so they didn't have to bring the intensity late. Utah was leading or competitive for most of the game with the Hawks so they spent a little more energy in last night's game.
The other is that Detroit had four days off coming into the game and will be playing only their fourth game of 2013, so they have had plenty of rest. Utah will be playing their 7th game since the turn of the year and third in four nights.
The Jazz are a decent team but they are terrible on the road, going just 8-15 and being outscored by 5+ ppg. Hard to believe they are only getting tow points against a Detroit team that is beating opponents by 3.4 ppg at home and has now won seven of nine and give of their last six games.
The Pistons are 16-5 ATS at home against teams who make 36% or more of their three point shot attempts. The Jazz are 22-34 ATS on the road and 8-22 ATS after two or more non-conference games the past three seasons.
|01-12-13||Charlotte Bobcats v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 185.5||88-96||Win||100||11 h 54 m||Show|
4* NBA Total NO BRAINER on Bobcats/Pacers UNDER
What we have here is a Charlotte team that is scoring just 93 ppg on the road and a Pacers team allowing 86.6 ppg at home. I'm having trouble discerning just where the Bobcats are going to get their points from as their 42.4% shooting takes on a defense that allows 40.3% on their home floor. Plus, on no rest they won't have time to make any adjustments from their 78 point showing last night in Toronto.
Indiana's defense has been downright sick, allowing 83 points or less in five of their last six, including holding Miami to 77 and New York to 76. Those are two teams that put up their share of points, and not even they could score against the Pacers.
Charlotte is so bad because their defense is terrible, particularly against the 3-point shot. The good news is that Indiana doesn't shoot a lot of outside shots so will get the majority of their points two at a time. The Pacers have scored less than 90 points in five of their last six games.
Indiana is 13-3 UNDER after a combined score of 175 points or less their last four games since 1996 and the Pacers are 34-20 UNDER against teams allowing their opponents to make more than 46% of their shots the last three years. Another system supporting our play says to take the UNDER when you have a team allowing 103+ ppg after a blowout loss of 20 points or more. The UNDER is 220-143 (60.6%) in this situation dating back to 1996.
|01-12-13||IUPU Ft Wayne +12 v. South Dakota State||57-83||Loss||-106||19 h 23 m||Show|
3* HIGH ROLLER on IUPU-Ft Wayne +
You might look at Wayne's 8-10 record and scoff, but this team has actually outscored their opponents by 2 ppg on the year so they are better than you think. They have played pretty well as the calendar turned to 2013 as well, beating Navy by five and crushing Nebraska-Omaha by 18 before losing as a 15 point underdog to North Dakota State by 12.
South Dakota State has struggled a little bit the last two times out, losing outright as an 11 point favorite to their in-state rivals in South Dakota, then not covering as an 8 point favorite over Oakland. Last year South Dakota State went into Fort Wayne and won by 31 points, that has created a little bit of value for us here tonight.
A system that supports our play here today says to take road underdogs of 10+ points who are coming off a double digit blowout loss when the other team is coming off a high scoring game of 155 points or more. These teams are 175-114 (60.6%) over the last five seasons.
|01-12-13||Illinois-Chicago +6 v. Wisc-Green Bay||47-53||Push||0||18 h 23 m||Show|
4* HEAVY HITTER on Illinois-Chicago +
The Flames are the better team so I'll gladly take them getting so many points here today. Illinois-Chicago is 10-6 on the season and beating teams by 4.7 ppg. They are winning with their defense, allowing opponents to shoot just 39% from the floor and score 58.6 ppg. The outside shot has been impossible to make against the Flames as they are allow just 29.9% from 3-point range.
Last year the Phoenix went into Chicago and won by eight so I'm expecting a little payback today. Illinois-Chicago has struggled a little lately, losing some close games to conference foes. I think this rough patch has the team focused to pick up an important win here today.
|01-12-13||Orlando Magic v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 198.5||104-101||Loss||-107||7 h 24 m||Show|
3* NBA Total Dominator Clippers/Magic UNDER
Orlando has been playing some high scoring games, but that should come to an end here this afternoon. Both of these teams had two days rest which means plenty of time to refresh the tired legs, plus to get some practice in to shore up any problems on the defensive side of the ball.
You know the Magic have been working on defense too, they have allowed their last nine opponents to score 96 points or more and six of their last seven have put up 105 or more. However, on the season they are only averaging 94.8 ppg so they aren't going to stop their losing streak if they don't get some stops.
The Clippers are getting a reputation as a high scoring team, yet are only putting up 101.8 ppg. What they are doing is play solid defense in allowing opponents to score only 93.1 ppg, and that number drops to 91.7 ppg at home. This game has blowout written all over it, and when a team has a large lead they eat up the clock late. Couple that with the fact this game starts at 3:30 EST and a little after noon in Pacific time where the game will be played, and I'm seeing a lazy start. NBA players aren't used to starting their work days so early.
|01-12-13||Houston v. Southern Mississippi -12.5||54-73||Win||100||17 h 22 m||Show|
4* DOUBLE DIGIT BLOODBATH on Southern Miss -
Southern Miss started off Conference USA action with a bang, going down to Rice and winning by 23 points as 12 point favorites on Wednesday. They should be plenty of confident for this showdown with Houston as they now have shot 50% or better in six of their last seven games and are coming off a 69.6% performance Wednesday.
Houston has won seven straight games but they have played a laughable schedule to date. This will be the toughest team they have faced yet and will find it difficult to score against a Southern MIss defense that is allowing only 51.8 ppg at home on 35.7% shooting. The Cougars do shoot 39.5% from beyond the arc, but that number has dipped to 27.7% on the road and shouldn't get much better facing a Golden Eagle defense allowing opponents to make just 29.5% of their 3-point attempts.
|01-11-13||Portland Trail Blazers v. Golden State Warriors -7.5||97-103||Loss||-110||18 h 56 m||Show|
3* NO DOUBT ROUT on Golden State Warriors -
This is a good matchup for the Warriors to get back on track after losing two straight games to the Clippers and Grizzlies. Portland comes into this one fresh off last night's win over the Miami Heat. The Blazers put everything they had into that game, as most teams do, so it's going to be difficult for them to play on no rest down in Oakland.
Portland shoots four more 3-point shots a game than their opponents normally allow, so they will have trouble against a Golden State team allowing just 30% from beyond the arc at Oracle Arena. The Warriors are shooting 47% at home while Portland allows 47.3% on the road.
In comparison, Golden State is giving up just 42.1% at home while Portland is shooting 42.4% outside of Oregon. Don't be afraid to lay the points with the home chalk here tonight.
|01-11-13||San Jose St +10 v. Utah State||60-66||Win||100||16 h 24 m||Show|
3* VEGAS INSIDER on San Jose State +
I like how San Jose State matches up with Utah State here tonight. The Aggies have won 12 straight games so you have to give them some respect, but they haven't really taken down anyone tough yet. The Spartans haven't either, but they did go into Kansas and only lose by 13 points, so I think they can keep this one to single digits.
The key is the Spartan defense, which is allowing opponents to shot just 39.3% from the floor and has held three of their last five opponents to less than 36%. Utah State has been efficient on the offensive side of the ball all year, but has slowed down in their last two games shooting only 43.1% and 41.5% in games they won but didn't cover. They also allowed their last two opponents to shoot 48.3% and 46.4% from the field.
How did they win those games? Rebounding and winning the turnover battle. The problem is that San Jose State is good at both of those areas too.
Utah State looks like the better team on paper, but I'll take the Spartans plus the big number here tonight and hope their defense comes to play.
|01-11-13||Minnesota Timberwolves +2.5 v. New Orleans Hornets||92-104||Loss||-110||15 h 28 m||Show|
3* HEAVY HITTER on Minnesota Timberwolves +
New Orleans has played well over the past week and it has created a little bit of value here for us tonight. The Hornets have won three straight and their last two were particularly impressive over San Antonio and Houston since they held those teams to 88 and 79 points, respectively.
Minnesota is coming off an ugly 22 point loss to Oklahoma City on Wednesday, but the Thunder are one of the best teams in the league and were out for blood after getting blown out themselves the game before. The Wolves were without Kevin Love, who re-injured his hand and will be out for a couple of months. However, that loss isn't as significant as I think is reflected in this line since Love wasn't really himself this year. He was shooting terribly and only putting up significant numbers due to the volume of shots he was taking. Sure, they will miss some of his rebounding but this team has done a pretty good job this year even without him producing like his normal self.
The Wolves won in New Orleans back on 12/14 by a score of 113-102 and were 4.5 point favorites. Now they are getting two points which is an over-reaction to how the Hornets have played recently and the loss of Kevin Love. Take the visitors and the points tonight.
|01-11-13||San Antonio Spurs v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 188||98-101||Loss||-105||15 h 27 m||Show|
3* Total Dominator on Grizzlies/Spurs UNDER
This is a low total for a San Antonio team that is averaging 105 ppg, but they haven't been as explosive here lately. The Spurs put up only 88 points at New Orleans and 83 points at New York in their last two road games and have now played UNDER the total in four straight games and six of their last seven.
Memphis has also played UNDER the total in six of their last seven games and they are doing it by continuing to play suffocating defense. During that stretch no team has scored more than 88 points against them and the only OVER was when the Grizzlies threw up 113 against a bad Kings teams. Memphis is only allowing 86.7 ppg at home this year so it isn't just a recent trend either.
Expect some playoff intensity tonight between these two teams as they are tied in the loss column with 10 losses each. They are battling it out for the Southwest Division title so I expect both teams to dial up the defensive intensity as this one goes UNDER easily.
|01-11-13||Chicago Bulls +5 v. New York Knicks||108-101||Win||100||15 h 27 m||Show|
3* HIGH ROLLER on Chicago Bulls +
These two teams have already played twice this year and Chicago has beaten New York both times. The Bulls won at home back on 12/8 by a score of 93-85 and then followed that up with a win in the Big Apple on 12/21 by a score of 110-106. I think they have a good shot at making it three straight here tonight.
The Bulls have been a solid road team this year, going 9-5 compared to 10-9 at home and have one two straight away from the United Center after beating Miami and Orlando last week. Chicago will be focused for this one after losing to Milwaukee on Tuesday night, but the Bucks were an energized bunch playing their second game without previous head coach Scott Skiles.
Chicago is 58-39 ATS on the road the last three seasons including 10-1 ATS on Friday nights. Teams normally bounce back after getting upset at home, and I think Chicago will do just that tonight.
|01-11-13||Houston Rockets v. Boston Celtics UNDER 200.5||Top||91-103||Win||100||15 h 58 m||Show|
5* Total NO BRAINER on Rockets/Celtics UNDER
These two teams met earlier this season in Houston and played to a final score of 101-89 and I expect another low scoring affair here tonight.
Is it any surprise Boston has upped the defensive intensity over the last five games? Their defensive stopper, Avery Bradley, finally returned from injury and the whole team seems to be rejuvenated. The Celtics have won four in a row and are doing it with defense. Boston has allowed 75, 81, 96, and 79 in those four games and no opponent has shot better than 41.2%.
Houston on the other hand, did not start their three game road trip as planned, losing in New Orleans by a final score of 79-88. The Hornets have been playing better defensively lately, but Boston is better on that end with Bradley than nearly every team in the league.
Solid system backs our play that says to take the UNDER when the total is over 200 in non-conference games and one of the teams went UNDER by more than 24 points last game. This system is 51-18 for the UNDER the last five seasons. Plus, when two teams with a winning record face each other on Friday nights and the total is over 200, the UNDER has gone 90-50 over the past five years.
|01-10-13||Dallas Mavericks v. Sacramento Kings -2||117-112||Loss||-105||15 h 51 m||Show|
3* HEAVY HITTER on Sacramento Kings -
The Sacramento Kings will be out for revenge against the Dallas Mavericks on Thursday night as back on 12/10 Dallas put a beatdown on them 119-96 in which they led 65-43 at the half. Sacramento has also lost back to back games by 20+ points so you know they got down to business over their last two days off.
Before those two games Sacramento had to be flying high (and losing to Brooklyn and Memphis isn't a cause for concern by itself). They had covered in eight of the previous nine games and had even beaten teams like Golden State, Portland, New York, and Boston.
Dallas is coming off a tough game last night in which they played the LA Clippers tough. It's going to be tough to bring the energy on back-to-back nights, especially as Dirk works his way back into game shape. The Mavs have lost four in a row and 10 of their last 11, with their only win coming against the Wizards. Take the Kings tonight.
|01-10-13||San Diego +6.5 v. San Francisco||70-66||Win||100||15 h 44 m||Show|
3* HIGH ROLLER on San Diego +
San Diego hasn't had much luck playing away from home this year but I think that changes tonight. Even though they don't have the best road record, their last four games have all been competitive compared to expectations.
San Francisco has played some good teams this year and played them tough, and that should help them in the conference schedule but it also has them a little over-valued in this one. They played BYU tough at home and Santa Clara tough on the road, but this team lost five straight games heading into Christmas day and a lot of them weren't even close.
San Francisco relies on the 3-point shot and they shoot well from the perimeter, but San Diego has defended the outside shot well all year long. I think this game is a nail biter so will gladly take the six points here today. San Francisco is just 19-37 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less since 1997.
|01-10-13||UCLA v. Utah +5.5||57-53||Win||100||14 h 14 m||Show|
3* PAC-12 POWER PLAY on Utah + over UCLA
Utah is still being undervalued from last year's terrible season, but this squad has improved and has been a money maker at the pay window going 9-2 ATS. They have played three pretty good teams in BYU, Arizona State, and Arizona and while they lost all three, it was only by a total of seven points when the odds had them as a combined 40 point underdogs in those games. Plus, they were all on the road and they get the Bruins at home.
UCLA has won seven in a row and is now 12-3 on the year, but the Utes are 50-31 ATS at home when playing a team with a record above 60% and 14-3 ATS at home when playing a team with a 80%+ mark. They haven't played a true road game yet, but have yet to cover on a neutral floor, losing to Georgetown by 8, beating Georgia by 4 as 12 point favorites, losing to San Diego State by 9, and only beating Texas by 2 as 6.5 point favorites.
The value is with the home underdog here tonight.
|01-10-13||Northern Arizona +4.5 v. Eastern Washington||59-82||Loss||-110||14 h 43 m||Show|
3* VEGAS INSIDER on Northern Arizona+
Northern Arizona has a bad record and a bad margin of defeat, but that is largely due to playing some stiff competition on the road. This team lost by 43 at Arizona, 47 at Colorado and by 30 at BYU. Obviously Eastern Washington is nowhere near the class of those three teams. This squad has been pretty competitive outside of those three teams so I think they are under-valued in this spot.
The Eagles have been struggling lately, losing six of their last seven games both SU and at the pay window. Their only cover was last time out when they lost by two as a three point dog to Montana State, a team N. Arizona beat by seven in the middle of December. Eastern Washington is 5-14 ATS after two or more straight losses the past three seasons.
Eastern Washington is 0-3 against common opponents so far this season, losing by 13 ppg. Northern Arizona on the other hand has gone 2-1. They are the better team and getting five points is too many for them, even with this game on the road.
|01-09-13||Milwaukee Bucks v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 187.5||Top||104-96||Loss||-110||11 h 55 m||Show|
5* Total NO BRAINER on Bulls/Bucks UNDER
Milwaukee fired coach Scott Skiles and then went out and scored 108 points against the Phoenix Suns last night, so some might think a change of philosophy sparked the offense. In reality it was more just hot shooting as the team shot 9-of-17 from behind the 3-point line. Obviously they can't keep up that pace no matter who is coaching.
The Bulls recent win was a 118-92 spanking of Cleveland that was uncharacteristically high scoring for them. Instead their previous four games they didn't allow their opponent to score more than 94 points, while not scoring more than 96 themselves. On their home floor Chicago is allowing just 89.8 ppg and 42.5% shooting.
The two games these two teams have played this year have both gone UNDER the number. Both games were played back in November with final scores of 93-92 and 93-86. Chicago will want to revenge that home loss on 11/26 and to do that they know defense is their best way to do that. Look for a slow pace game controlled by the Bulls for an easy UNDER here tonight.
|01-09-13||Valparaiso -2.5 v. Illinois-Chicago||75-70||Win||100||11 h 56 m||Show|
3* NO DOUBT ROUT on Valparaiso -
Why is a 10-5 team getting points to an 11-5 team at home? Because Valpo isn't just winning they are blowing out their opponents with a 9.2 margin of victory compared to 5.2 for Illinois-Chicago.
Both of these teams have been solid on the defensive end of the floor, but Valpo's edge comes on offense where they are shooting almost 7% higher from the floor than the Flames. The other edge that I like with the Crusaders is with rebounding. This team is pulling down seven more boards per game than their opponents while the Flames are actually getting out rebounded on the season.
Valpo has won the last six games in this series and took Ill-Chicago down by five on the road last year. I think they win by a similar amount here tonight.
|01-09-13||Mississippi v. Tennessee UNDER 134.5||92-74||Loss||-110||9 h 16 m||Show|
4* TOTAL NO BRAINER on Ole Miss/Tennessee UNDER
Ole Miss has been routing teams and that is setting up some value with this number for us to take advantage of today. The Rebels have scored 81+ points in four straight games and are averaging 83.1 ppg on the year. Last time out they trounced Fordham 95-68.
Tennessee on the other hand has been doing their damage on the defensive side of the floor. The Vols are allowing just 58.7 ppg on 40% shooting. Opposing teams shoot just 27.5% from outside the 3-point line against them. Another reason there is some value in this line is Memphis just got done putting up 85 against them. You can expect this team buckled down the last few days in practice to make sure that kind of defense won't continue in SEC action, since the Vols can't when high scoring games.
Last year these two teams met twice with totals of 128 and 125. Sure, they went over both times but that shows you just how different odds makers are treating this game. I think the value is with the UNDER here tonight as Tennessee controls the pace at home, slows things up, and keeps the point totals low.
|01-09-13||Phoenix Suns v. Boston Celtics -8.5||79-87||Loss||-110||10 h 24 m||Show|
3* HEAVY HITTER on Celtics -
The Suns are playing back-to-back off a tightly contested game with the Milwaukee Bucks last night. Phoenix led at half but had a meltdown after the break to lose by 9.
Is it shocking that the Celtics have won three games in a row? Avery Bradley returned four games ago and this team once again is bringing it on the defensive end of the floor. They have allowed 96 points in New York, 81 v. Atlanta, and 75 against the Pacers in their last three games and it's due in large part to getting their best defender back from injury.
Boston won in New York without Rondo on Monday night, but he has served his suspension and will be on the floor tonight. Boston isn't going to take any game lightly, even though this is a non-conference game being played in January. They stand at 17-17 and know that every game is important if they want a high seed come playoff time.
Phoenix is allowing teams to shoot 47.2% against them this year while Boston is shooting 48% at home. With the Suns losing by an average of 10 ppg on the road this year, I see another double digit loss in their future because right now Boston is at full strength and at full strength they are an above average team.
|01-09-13||Atlanta Hawks v. Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 192.5||83-99||Loss||-101||8 h 22 m||Show|
3* TOTAL DOMINATOR on Cavs/Hawks OVER
When these two teams meet up it seems like there are a lot of points that get put up on the board. The Cavs and Hawks have played OVER the number in five straight in this series dating back to the beginning of last year. The Hawks won back on 12/28 102-94 in Cleveland, while in Nov. the Cavs went into Atlanta to win 113-111. Last year the two teams put up 205, 190, and 215 points in their three meetings.
Both of these teams are coming off games in which they sailed over the total as well. The Cavs have actually gone over in three straight with totals of 210, 216, and 210 points. Atlanta had played three straight low scoring games before going to Minnesota last night for a 103-108 finale.
Both of these teams are on short rest so it's not like they will have made any adjustments on defense to shore up their holes, and their offensive outburst should have given the shooters plenty of confidence. I like this one to go over again here tonight.
|01-09-13||North Carolina-Wilmington +8 v. James Madison||50-78||Loss||-110||10 h 56 m||Show|
3* BLUE CHIP SPECIAL on UNC Wilmington +
These two teams are a little more evenly matched than most people think, but Wilmington has played eight road games so far this season and has yet to win one. That might sound bad, but they actually covered their last five away from home so they are playing tough as a visitor.
James Madison has had a tough stretch here lately. They have lost two games in a row, but they are actually in the strange situation you don't see very often in college basketball of playing their third game in five nights. They haven't had much of a chance to prepare for tonight's opponent.
The Seahawks have struggled on offense this year in scoring just 61 ppg, but James Madison allows their opponents to shoot 45%. I think this is the game they get back on track and pick up a road win.
|01-09-13||Western Michigan +14 v. Akron||43-65||Loss||-106||10 h 55 m||Show|
3* HEAVY HITTER on Western Michigan +
This is a pretty good matchup for the Broncos to be catching 14 points in. Akron is definitely a good team who scores efficiently and plays pretty good defense, but don't sleep on Western Michigan. They have played the tougher schedule to date and have came out looking pretty good at 8-5.
There are two things I love about this underdog. The first is they get to the foul line at a high rate. The team shoots four more three throws a game than their opponents give up, while Akron allows two more free throws per game than their opponents normally take. The other is rebounding. They are dominating the boards against their opponents by nearly 9 more per game. Akron's rebounding numbers are impressive too, but when they shoot at a higher rate that their opponents that is going naturally be the case (defensive boards are easier to grab than offensive.)
The Broncos have wins over South Florida and Oakland. They have been beat up pretty bad by Michigan and NC State, but those two teams are a lot better than the Zips. I don't see Akron winning this game in a rout so I'll gladly take the points.
|01-09-13||Toledo +8.5 v. Kent State||70-58||Win||100||10 h 54 m||Show|
3* HIGH ROLLER on Toledo +
When a 4-7 team is playing a 9-5 team you know the public is going to be on the favorite, but a closer look at these two teams makes me think this line is a little high here tonight. The Rockets are actually being outscored by only a point a game and five of their seven losses have been by six points or less. This team has only played three home games on the year, so they are at least tested to be competitive when taking to the road.
Kent State on the other hand isn't all that impressive. Sure they have won four games in a row and their last win on 1/2 over Cleveland State is worthy of taking note, but the other three teams they beat were St. Francis, Arkansas State, and Fairmont State. The last two they beat by a total of six points.
I expect Toledo to get to the line a lot tonight and when they do the Rockets shoot 76.6% as a team. They average three more free throw attempts than their opponents normally tie up and Kent gives up three more than their opponents normally take. Roll the dog.
|01-08-13||Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 187.5||77-87||Win||100||21 h 45 m||Show|
4* NBA Total NO BRAINER on Heat/Pacers UNDER
Indiana is a team that prefers to slow things down and win with their defense, and I think being the home team they control the pace here tonight. Indiana is only scoring 91.4 ppg against teams allowing 97.9 and giving up 89.8 ppg against teams who score 96.6. They do a great job of shutting down the outside shot, allowing opponents to only shoot 31.2% from behind the arc.
Miami has gone UNDER in two straight games and looked especially tough against Washington on Sunday, allowing the Wizards to score just 71 points on 35.8% shooting. Indiana has gone UNDER in four straight and six of their last seven . They have struggled offensively but shut down opposing shooters.
These two teams met last year in the playoffs and saw their totals around 180. This one is six points higher and I feel like that leads to a good chance the UNDER hits tonight.
Play the UNDER when a team is coming off a win by 15 points or more against an opponent coming off a win by 20 or more. This system is 201-132 (60.4%) dating back to 1996. The Pacers are 40-24 for the UNDER against teams who make 46% or more of their shots the last three years while Miami is 12-1 UNDER off a home win against a divisional rival the last three years.
|01-08-13||Brooklyn Nets v. Philadelphia 76ers UNDER 187||109-89||Loss||-100||21 h 45 m||Show|
3* NBA Total Dominator on Nets/Sixers UNDER
Two teams that know each other well face off tonight and I think points will be at a premium. The two teams met back on 12/23 with the Nets winning 95-92, just slipping under the total of 187.5. That made the UNDER 8-5 now when these two teams have met dating back to the 2009-10 season. When you play each other as many times a year as these two do, you have a pretty good idea of what your opponents likes to do and it's easier to stop.
The Sixers have been having problems putting points on the board anyway. Philadelphia has scored more than 89 points just once in their last six games so it's no surprise this team has gone UNDER in five of their last six and seven of their last nine. Brooklyn has been putting up points lately which has inflated this total a little bit, but the value is with the UNDER.
Brooklyn is 13-4 UNDER against teams who turn the ball over 14 times or less this year and they are 21-7 UNDER against teams who make six or more 3's per game the last two years. The Nets are 15-5 UNDER when playing on two days rest the last three years and 19-6 UNDER on the road after an over the last two years.
|01-08-13||Northeastern +5.5 v. Drexel||63-58||Win||100||21 h 38 m||Show|
3* HEAVY HITTER on Northeastern +
Northeastern has done a good job in CAA action the last few years but there is one team they have struggled with: Drexel. Last year they lost at home by 8 points and by 18 on the road. Those two losses made it six straight in the series, and I think this Northeastern team is going to be out to take advantage of a Drexel team that isn't as good as the odds makers think.
Senior co-captain Jonathan Lee missed the first nine games of the season with a foot injury but returned to the lineup for the last five games. This team has seen a boost with his return as Lee has posted double figures in each of those games. He is doing it all and I think this line is based off of how the team has looked in the season as a whole, instead of with one of their best players in the lineup.
Another key to this game will be how often Northeastern can get to the line. They are averaging 21 free throws per game against teams allowing only 19, while Drexel is allowing opponents to shoot 21 per game who average only 19. I like teams who can get to the line and convert and Northeastern fits the bill as they shoot 73.5% from the charity stripe.
This is a live dog who has a real chance to win outright on Tuesday.
A couple of systems support our play tonight that say to fade a home team off a conference loss as a favorite of six or more if they have a losing record on the year. This system is 48-19 (71.6%) the last five years. Drexel is also 0-7 ATS as a favorite this season and 2-9 ATS the last two years against teams who foul less than 17 times per game.
|01-08-13||Appalachian State +8 v. Wofford||50-49||Win||100||21 h 37 m||Show|
3* HIGH ROLLER on Appalachian State +
Wofford is one of the worst offensive teams around, putting up just 58.9 ppg on 38.6% shooting, but they are excellent on the defensive end of the floor holding teams to 59.6 ppg. How do they do it? By holding opponents to just 30.2% from the 3-point line and by cleaning up the boards.
App State though does not shoot a lot of three pointers so I'm not as concerned about the perimeter defense. Instead I'm looking at a team that scores 72.6 ppg against opponents who allow 72 and see an above average offense who can outscore a team that struggles to produce points.
These two teams enter this game in completely different directions. Wofford has played a tough schedule and lost big to Virginia and Tulane. While losses were expected losing by 35 and 14 can deflate your confidence. They haven't shot better than 36.2% in their last three games so it's not like they can be confident shooting the ball.
App State on the other hand played a couple of bunnies the last two times out in Presbyterian and Milligan, but took care of the first by eight and the latter by 20. I'll take the points with the confident team here tonight.
A couple of systems support our play that say to take road underdogs of more than 3.5 points off two or more straight wins who have won less than 40% of their games on the year. This system is 50-22 (69.4%) the last five seasons. App State is also 12-4 ATS the last two years against teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game.
|01-07-13||San Antonio Spurs v. New Orleans Hornets +8||88-95||Win||100||13 h 41 m||Show|
3* High Roller on Hornets +8 over Spurs
New Orleans has played San Antonio twice this year and have kept it close both time. The first was in New Orleans back on 10/31 where the Spurs won 99-95, then the Hornets traveled to San Antonio on 12/21 and dropped the game 94-99. That should give the team plenty of confidence they can hang with one of the best teams in the league.
San Antonio has been a covering machine lately, cashing tickets in six of their last eight. We rode them over Philadelphia on Saturday to revenge their loss to New York, but this could be a little bit of a look past situation with the Lakers and Grizzlies on deck.
New Orleans should have some confidence after winning in Dallas on Saturday night and they are in a good spot. The Hornets are 24-12 ATS revering a same season loss and 33-18 ATS as an underdog of between 3.5-9.5 points the last two seasons.
|01-07-13||Georgia State v. Hofstra +5||50-52||Win||100||12 h 37 m||Show|
3* Heavy Hitter on Hofstra +5 over Georgia State
Hofstra hasn't played since January 1st so they have had plenty of time to prepare for this game against Georgia State. You know that they worked hard this week in practice as they are out for revenge against a team that beat them by 16 points on their home floor last year and by 35 points in the first round of the CAA Tournament in March.
Neither one of these teams is very good, the Pride have lost eight in a row and five of six at the pay window while Georgia State broke a five game losing streak with a win over James Madison on Saturday. It was the first time in seven tries they had covered as a favorite this year.
I'll take the points with the home dog who will be out for revenge in this one.
|01-06-13||Charlotte Bobcats v. Detroit Pistons OVER 193.5||108-101||Win||100||11 h 35 m||Show|
4* Total Dominator on Pistons/Bobcats OVER 193.5
Charlotte is a bad defensive team and Detroit should be able to take advantage of that here today. The Bobcats are giving up 105.7 ppg on the road to teams that are scoring just 97.1 ppg and 17 of their last 18 opponents have score 97 or more points against them.
Detroit had been scoring a decent amount of points lately, putting up 96 or more in six straight before beating Atlanta 85-84 Friday night. At home they have been shooting 46.7% on the year and 39.5% from behind the arc. That should bode well for them as Charlotte is giving up 40.7% from 3-point range away from home. The Pistons are 25-10 for the OVER against bad teams who are outscored by 6+ ppg on the year and 10-1 for the OVER at home after allowing 85 or less the last three seasons.
The last three match ups between these two teams have gone OVER by scores of 109-85, 110-107 and 109-94. All signs point to a lot of points here on Sunday.
|01-06-13||Northwestern v. Minnesota UNDER 133||Top||51-69||Win||100||10 h 60 m||Show|
5* Total No Brainer on Minnesota/Northwestern UNDER 133
Two teams square off in the Big Ten on Sunday who have been excellent on the defensive end of the floor this year. Northwestern is allowing opponents who score 68.5 ppg to only put up 61.8 against them. Teams are shooting just 41.3% from the floor compared to their season average of 43.7%.
Minnesota is no slouch either as they allow just 59.8 ppg against teams who score 69.4. Opponents are shooting only 38.1% against them compared to their season average of 44.6%.
Neither one of these two teams turn the ball over very often, so that is going to limit easy buckets in transition. The Gophers have been a solid rebounding team but the Wildcats do a good job of keeping their opponents off the offensive glass.
Michigan put up 94 points against Northwestern on Thursday night, but that isn't going to happen in back-to-back outings as the Wolverines shot 60% from the floor. Minnesota is coming off a win over Michigan State back on New Year's Eve and might be a little rusty after the long layoff. They scored 76 in that game but had to shoot 56.6% from the floor in order to do so.
The oddsmakers are over-adjusting for what happened last game and I'll gladly take the UNDER here today.
|01-05-13||Golden State Warriors +6 v. Los Angeles Clippers||Top||89-115||Loss||-110||16 h 48 m||Show|
5* Pacific Division Game of the Year on the Warriors +6 over the Clippers
Golden State beat the Clippers the first time around by a final score of 114-110 so this team should be confident they can go into LA and do it again tonight. Add in the fact that Golden State just beat them on Wednesday night at home and you can see why we like the matchup. Some might consider the Clippers as motivated to revenge the early season loss, but that is more of a myth than reality in the NBA. In fact, teams with a winning record that are favorites of 3.5-9.5 points revenging two straight losses where opponents put up 100 or more are just 42-78 ATS the last 5 seasons.
There aren't many teams playing better than the Warriors right now and they are doing it against some stiff competition. They blew out the Bobcats back on 12/21 at home, then took the Lakers to the wire in Steve Nash's return to the lineup. A four game winning streak quickly followed with an 11 point win in Utah, a 7 point win over the Sixers, 18 points over the Celtics, and the 21 point beating they handed the Clippers.
LA is struggling after their long winning streak, losing by 14 at Denver and by 21 at Golden State. They have to play their cross town rival Lakers on Friday night and you know they are going to go all out for that game on ESPN. Don't plan on them having this game circled against the Warriors tonight even with Golden State beating up on them a few days ago.
This is a tough spot for the Clippers. This will be the team's fourth game in five nights and seventh in their last ten. The rest situation is brutal for LA right now as they haven't had more than one day off since 12/12. The Warriors take advantage and cover here tonight.
|01-05-13||Philadelphia 76ers v. San Antonio Spurs -13||86-109||Win||100||14 h 47 m||Show|
3* No Doubt Rout on San Antonio -12.5 over Philadelphia
Look for the Spurs to bounce back at home tonight against Philadelphia. Teams that are outscoring their opponents by 3+ ppg usually come back strong after a blowout loss of 15 points or more, going 110-67 ATS over the last five seasons. San Antonio is outscoring opponents by 8.2 ppg and is coming off a 17 point loss to the Knicks on Thurday night. This is a tough spot for the Sixers as they are playing their fourth game in five nights. They had to play in Oklahoma City last night and played the Thunder pretty tough in the first half before running out of gas in the second.
This is the final game of a eight game road trip before the team gets a couple of days off leading into a home game against Brooklyn. If a team is ever looking to get home it happens after a stretch like this, especially when the team has only managed two wins so far during the trip. The Spurs should jump out early and stay ahead by double digits most of the game.
|01-05-13||Sacramento Kings v. Brooklyn Nets UNDER 195.5||93-113||Loss||-110||13 h 47 m||Show|
3* Total Dominator on Nets/Kings UNDER 195.5
Both of these teams are coming off back-to-backs but the Brooklyn Nets are in a unique situation of playing on no rest after a double overtime thriller last night against the Washington Wizards. I think that means you'll be seeing this team slow it up a little more as they won't have the energy to push the pace.
That's good news for a Kings team that is giving up 101.6 ppg on the year and only scoring 96.8. Brooklyn doesn't score a lot anyway, putting up only 94.7 on the year against teams allowing 97.6. The Nets are a strong defensive team allowing 94.4 ppg against teams who score 98.2.
The recent high scoring streak for Sacramento has given us a few points of value here. These two teams met earlier in the year for a 99-90 final with a total of 192.5. Now the total is four points higher and the Nets are tired and will slow the pace. Roll the UNDER with confidence.
|01-05-13||Sacramento Kings +7.5 v. Brooklyn Nets||93-113||Loss||-108||13 h 38 m||Show|
3* High Roller on Sacramento Kings +7.5 over New Jersey Nets
I'm going against the Nets who are off a back-to-back and to compound matters went into double OT last night with the Washington Wizards, one of the worst teams in the league. This forced Lopez, Williams, and Johnson to all play more than 44 minutes, which should give the stars some tired legs for this one tonight. This is New Jersey's eight game in 12 games, so not a good time to be coming off a double overtime game the night before.
The Kings are off an impressive 105-96 win in Toronto in which they led by 19 going into the fourth quarter, so even though they are on a back-to-back they should be a little more rested as none of their guys played more than 35 minutes.
Sacramento has now covered in five straight and in eight of their last nine. I think the odds makers continue to discount how much this team has improved lately and I'll go with them again here tonight.
|01-05-13||Milwaukee Bucks v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 185.5||80-95||Win||100||12 h 18 m||Show|
3* NBA Total Annihilator on Bucks/Pacers UNDER 185.5
These two teams have played twice already this year and have played some pretty low scoring games. Back on 11/14 the bucks won 99-85, staying under the 189.5 point total then on 12/18 the teams went over the 185 point total by a few points with their 98-93 final.
Since that game this Pacers team has been playing some pretty low scoring games, allowing just one opponents since to score more than 91 points. Milwaukee has been playing some high scoring games against high scoring teams, but that has only worked in our favor to create value now that they are playing a slower pace team.
Indiana is allowing only 88.6 ppg at home to teams scoring 96.7 ppg and they are only scoring 91.7 ppg against teams that allow 97.8. Both of these teams are going to be fighting for a playoff spot this year so divisional games like this mean playoff like intensity even in early January.
I know both teams are off back-to-backs, but each game in with plenty of rest before that. Indiana had five days off over Christmas and the Bucks played only once between 12/22 and 12/29 so I don't think either will have tired legs. This one is a defensive battle and stays UNDER.
|01-05-13||St John's v. Cincinnati UNDER 138||Top||53-52||Win||100||9 h 48 m||Show|
5* Total NO BRAINER on St. John's Cincinnati UNDER 138
St. John's is coming off a high scoring game against Villanova with a final of 86-98. Sure, the game went into overtime but it was already 83-83 after two halves, blowing over the 136.5 point total. Cincinnati is also coming off an over of their own when they beat Pitt by a score of 70-61 back on New Year's Eve. That game saw a low total posted of 125 and since the Bearcats were six point dogs that means they were supposed to score under 60 points.
The previous game has opened up some value for us with this total being a few points higher than it should be. Cincinnati had put up scores of 60-45, 68-58, and 54-55 the three games prior to Pitt. In fact, they haven't allowed another opponent to score more than 60 against them since Oregon did back on 11/24.
The last two years these two teams have struggled to put up points when playing each other and have gone UNDER the total each time. Back on 1/22/11 Cincinnati won 53-51 with a total of 129. On 2/13/11 it was St. John's 59-57 with a total of 128. Last year saw St. John's win in Cincy by a final of 57-55 with a total of 133.5 and the Bearscats revenged the loss by winning 76-54 on the road. That was enough to get under the 134 total posted.
So, the last four have gone UNDER the total in this series and yet this total is higher than any of the previous. Don't expect a lot of points Saturday as this one stays low.
|01-05-13||Towson +9.5 v. Drexel||69-66||Win||100||9 h 39 m||Show|
4* Heavy Hitter on Towson +9.5
Drexel put a beating on Towson last year at home by a score of 60-27, but these two teams have been heading in different directions ever since. Drexel has been hurt by the injury to Chris Fouch, who broke his ankle in the Penn game, the team is just 3-11 ATS since he's been out of the lineup.
Towson has pulled off ATS wins in four of their last five games. It all started when they played at Georgetown and nearly pulled off the upset, then played Temple tough next time out. Their last two lined games came at Oregon State and at UNC-Wilmington were they pulled off upset wins. You can't sleep on this team as everyone remembers their one win from a year ago and assumes they are still one of the worst in college basketball. They aren't and they are going to want to make a statement here today against a conference rival.
A solid system backs our play that says to take double digit road underdogs who are off an upset win as a road underdog if they still have a losing record on the season. Since Towson is 6-8 they fit this system that is 54-23 over the last five years.
|01-05-13||Oklahoma State v. Kansas State -2.5||67-73||Win||100||6 h 24 m||Show|
3* High Roller on Kansas State -2.5
Oklahoma State has only played one true road game all year long and that was a loss at Virginia Tech by 10 points. The Cowboys are also coming off a home loss to Gonzaga. Their impressive wins came in the middle of November against Tennessee and NC State but haven't done much to impress since.
Kansas State is playing well under new coach Bruce Weber. Their only two losses were on neutral floors to Michigan and Gonzaga. This team did pull a nice win off over Florida a few weeks ago and I like how they are defending and rebounding the basketball.
I think Kansas State is the better team and should be laying four to five at home here today. I"ll lay the small number.
|01-04-13||Chicago Bulls v. Miami Heat UNDER 191||96-89||Win||100||12 h 43 m||Show|
3* Total Dominator on Heat/Bulls UNDER 191.5
Two good teams playing on ESPN tonight and you can expect both of them to bring the intensity to the defensive side of the floor. Even though these two teams play contrasting styles I think Chicago will try to slow the Heat down as the Bulls are 31-18 UNDER when playing a team with a winning record the last two seasons.
Miami shoots a lot of three pointers and does a good job of knocking them down, but the Bulls are 14-4 for the UNDER against teams who shoot 18 or more 3's per game this year. Miami's 103.6 ppg is one of the highest in the league but the Bulls are 15-5 UNDER against teams who average 103+ ppg the last three years.
The last two times these two teams met the total went under 183.5 and 185 by final scores of 83-72 and 86-96. These two have a history of tough games that are low scoring and I don't see why that doesn't continue here tonight.
|01-04-13||Manhattan v. St. Peters -3||55-53||Loss||-106||11 h 38 m||Show|
3* CBB Heavy Hitter on St. Peter's -3 over Manhattan
Neither one of these teams is going to be mistake as good, but I think St. Peter's is better plus they get the home court advantage. Manhattan is just 3-9 on the year and 1-8 on the road. They are scoring just 56.7 ppg against teams that allow 66.4 while shooting 38.8% from the floor. They have played a tougher schedule than St. Peter's but at 3-9 they have only won as favorites of 6 points or more.
You know that St. Peter's is going to be out for revenge in this game. Manhattan beat them up pretty bad twice last year, including by 22 points here on their home floor and by 26 points the first time around.
Both teams played Long Island just a few short weeks ago. Manhattan lost by a score of 48-75 while the Peacocks won 80-67.
Two of the Jaspers best players are dealing with ankle injuries. George Beamon has missed six in a row and is averaging 16.8 ppg this year and Michael Alvarado was sidelined for most of the last game, also with an ankle injury. Without Beamon the team only has one win and that was over Siena.
|01-03-13||No. Colorado +13 v. Weber State||54-79||Loss||-106||14 h 14 m||Show|
3* Public Blood Bath on Northern Colorado +13 over Weber State
Weber State has looked pretty good this year while Northern Colorado has not. A close look at the schedule though shows that the Bears have played the tougher schedule so things might not be quite as bad as they seem.
Weber State has six wins in their last seven games and is coming off a 110-45 beating of Southwest. The other teams they beat are E Washington, Portland State, Utah Valley State, and UC-Irvine. Those really aren't that impressive of wins to me, but what it does do is create a few points of value in the ugly underdog.
Favorites of 10 or more points off a 20+ win are just 82-41 ATS the last five seasons when playing a team the is coming off an upset loss as a favorite. Take the points here tonight.
|01-03-13||Colorado +11.5 v. Arizona||83-92||Win||100||13 h 14 m||Show|
3* Marquee Mismatch on Colorado +11.5
A lot of points for Arizona to be laying a pretty good Colorado team tonight. The Buffaloes have surprised me a little bit with their 10-2 start, beating some decent teams like Dayton, Baylor, and Murray State on neutral floors and Fresno State on the road. They do have one ugly 36 point loss to Kansas that I think gives us a couple of points of value here with this line. Most bettors will look at Arizona and Kansas as comparable, see what Colorado do as an 11 point underdog in Lawrence, and run towards the chalk.
Arizona is in a tough spot though. They haven't played since Christmas day, which might create a little rust for their offense. It's always tough coming off the extended layoff on the defensive end too, because no matter how much conditioning you do in practice, being in "game shape" is another story altogether.
Colorado knows they can hang with the wildcats, they beat Arizona twice last season. Once was in Boulder, but the other came in the Pac-12 tournament. I'll take the points here in this one.
|01-03-13||San Antonio Spurs v. New York Knicks -1||83-100||Win||100||13 h 50 m||Show|
4* Main Event Major on Knicks -1 over Spurs
It's always tough going against a hot team like San Antonio and taking a team that is struggling like the Knicks, but that has opened up some value in the line here tonight. The Spurs have strung together seven straight victories and have covered the spread in five of their last six. New York on the other hand has lost three of their last four and covered only once in their last six games.
However, this team knows that they can hang with San Antonio, they already did so back on 11/15 when they visited the Spurs and came away with a four point win. The Spurs have had a fairly brutal schedule here lately as this is their sixth game in nine nights. I think the fatigue starts to catch up with them as they fall in New York.
Solid situation supporting our play on New York says take home teams of between +3/-3 that are off an upset loss as a favorite who have a winning percentage of above 60%. These teams are 81-43 ATS since 1996. Plus, the Knicks are 23-10 ATS at home as a favorite of six points or less the last three years.
|01-03-13||Louisiana-Lafayette +2 v. Florida Atlantic||70-75||Loss||-110||12 h 14 m||Show|
3* False Favorite on Louisiana Lafayette +2 over Florida Atlantic
The average bettors looks at this game and sees a team with a worse record getting only two points on the road and is all over Florida Atlantic. However, Lafayette actually has a better scoring margin and has played a tougher schedule.
Plus, Lafayette has owned this series as of late. Last year they won by 12 points at home as 2.5 point underdogs and two years ago they went to Florida Atlantic and won by 8 points as double digit underdogs.
Mike Jarvis is the coach of Florida Atlantic and he is just 16-31 ATS since arriving in the role of a favorite while Lafayette is 49-28 ATS when going on the road playing a team with a losing record. They win the games they know they have a chance in.
|01-02-13||New Orleans Hornets v. Houston Rockets -9.5||92-104||Win||100||16 h 42 m||Show|
3* Double Digit Blood Bath on Houston Rockets -9.5
We backed the Hornets last night and they cost us with some poor play down the stretch. Now they have to pack up and head to Houston to take on one of the hottest teams in the league in Houston.
New Orleans has reached the 100 point barrier just one time in their last 15 games, and that was back on 12/14 against Minnesota when they gave up 113. Houston on the other hand has scored 109 or more in six of their last eight games.
The Rockets score too many points for New Orleans to catch up. Houston is a good 3-point shooting team who shoots a lot from outside, while the Hornets allow opponents to shoot 38% from behind the arc. I'm expecting a healthy amount of points, so don't have any problem laying just under double digits.
|01-02-13||Washington Wizards v. Indiana Pacers -10.5||81-89||Loss||-110||15 h 43 m||Show|
3* Money Maker on Pacers -10.5
Washington had a chance to pick up a much needed win last night against the Mavericks but an awful third quarter did this team in again. That made it 10 losses in their last 11 games and I don't like their chances going to Indiana to face a Pacers team that has won five of their last six and eight of their last 10 games.
The Pacers have been playing well this year by playing suffocating defense and holding opponents to 7 ppg below their season average. Washington on the other hand makes everyone look defensively, scoring 9 ppg less than their opponents allow.
Even though this is going to be a low scoring game, I like the home team to put enough on the board to cover the double digits.
|01-02-13||Rutgers +16 v. Syracuse||53-78||Loss||-110||15 h 4 m||Show|
3* HEAVY HITTER on Rutgers +16
I think this is a good matchup for a Rutgers team that comes into this game with a 9-2 record on the year and plays tough on the defensive end of the floor. The Scarlet Knights are holding opponents to just 40.5% shooting while converting on 48.3% of their shots this year.
They do a good job of defending the 3-point shot, but don't take a lot of outside shots themselves. This is important since Syracuse does a great job of defending the perimeter, only allowing 26.4% from deep.
The Orange are a pretty solid basketball team, but I'm not scared to take the 16 points here today with a solid team that slows the pace down, shoots a high percentage from the floor and is good defensively.
|01-02-13||Pennsylvania +21 v. Butler||57-70||Win||100||15 h 3 m||Show|
3* Public Blood Bath on Penn +21
Solid system supports our play on Penn today that says to fade favorites of 20 points or more who have covered the spread in four of their last five. This system is 41-19 (68.3%) over the last five seasons.
Penn is not a good team, but their last two losses weren't quite as bad as they may initially seem. Being an Ivy League school finals are taken seriously, so the team had 12 days off between Villanova and Delaware. You can probably excuse them for being a little rusty in that one. Last time out though this team lost to Wagner, but again that game was played more than a week after Delaware game due to Christmas.
On the other hand you have Butler that has rattled off seven straight wins, including a big win over Indiana back on 12/15. This team has covered four out of five and is prime for a letdown. The way both of these teams have been playing lately sets us up for some nice value here tonight.
|01-02-13||Nebraska +21 v. Ohio State||44-70||Loss||-110||15 h 34 m||Show|
3* High Roller on Nebraska +21
Ohio State put a couple of beatings down on Nebraska last year, winning 79-45 in Lincoln and by 31 at home. The Huskers are a better team this year and you can bet those two whoppings were hammered home to them as they prepared for this game against the Buckeyes.
Ohio State on the other hand is in a prime look ahead spot as they travel to Illinois to face the 13-1 Illini in their next game. You think these players are worried about a team they beat by 65 points in two games last year or a team that is up and coming to threaten them for the Big Ten title? I'll take the points here with what should be the hungrier team.
|01-02-13||Providence +18 v. Louisville||62-80||Push||0||14 h 5 m||Show|
3* Vegas Insider on Providence +18
Couple of good systems supporting our play here say to fade home favorites or 10 or more points after 7 or more wins in a row. This system is 182-118 (60.7%) the last five years. Another system play here is to take underdogs of 10 or more points off an upset loss as a favorite when they are playing a team that won but didn't cover last time out. This system is 93-50 (65%) since 1997.
Providence is a good team that is showing us some value now that they are coming off two straight losses as a favorite. The one against Brown was particularly bad since they were double digit chalk, but losing by one when your opponent shoots 50% the first game after Christmas isn't that much of a shock to me.
Louisville is a good team that is coming off a tough win against their rivals in Kentucky. It's tough saying they won't be up for their first Big East game of the season, but this is a prime letdown spot for the Cardinals.
|01-01-13||Atlanta Hawks v. New Orleans Hornets +3.5||Top||95-86||Loss||-110||10 h 40 m||Show|
5* No Brainer on New Orleans Hornets +3
This is a tough scheduling spot for Atlanta. They are in the dreaded position of playing their fourth game in five nights, playing back-to-back against Cleveland and Indiana, having a night off, then playing in Houston last night on New Year's Eve. They didn't look good against the Rockets, getting beat down by a superior team.
Obviously New Orleans isn't a good team as they clock in at 7-23 on the year, while Atlanta is 19-10, but the Hornets do have two wins in their last three games and scored 97 or above in each. Since Atlanta has given up 100 or more in three of their last four, I think the Hornets are going to put enough points on the board to pick up the win here on New Year's Day.
The public is going to look at this matchup and see the Hawks won by 22 down in New Orleans last year, but this team has improved and will look to that defeat as some motivation here today. The Hornets start fresh in 2013 and pick up the win over a Hawks team that is overvalued after winning four straight before last night.
|01-01-13||Connecticut +6.5 v. Marquette||76-82||Win||100||23 h 52 m||Show|
3* Marquee Mismatch on UConn +6.5 over Marquette
This is the Big East opener for both teams, so you know each one of them will be giving it their full attention, but the Huskies will have some extra motivation. Marquette came up to Connecticut last February and put a 79-64 beating down on the Huskies, including leading by 14 points at the half so it was never even close.
Fast forward to this season and you'll see UConn off to a very good start at 10-2. Their two losses were by four and six points to New Mexico and NC State. I think both of those teams are a step up in class over Marquette and yet the Huskies are getting 6.5 points here tonight.
Marquette backers are going to look at UConn and see how this team has only covered twice so far, in their first game against Michigan State and in their last against Washington. They also haven't had a true road game yet this year, but that is what is giving us a couple points of value here tonight. The Huskies have played the tougher schedule and the win over Michigan State really stands out to me as this being the better team.
|12-31-12||Harvard +13 v. Saint Marys CA||Top||69-70||Win||100||21 h 48 m||Show|
5* CBB No Limit on Harvard +13
This is a great matchup for Harvard as they have made 40% of their 3-point shots on the season and are taking on a St. Mary's team that is giving up 38% from deep range. The other thing Harvard does is get to the line, they are taking 22 free throws a game against teams that allow 19. St. Mary's allows 21 free throws a game against teams that shoot 19. You should see Harvard taking quite a bit of free throws and that's good news as they have hit 74.3% of them on the year.
Another reason to back Harvard is the rest factor. St. Mary's played yesterday against Yale and also played on the 27th against Rhode Island. In the NBA you are used to seeing this kind of thing, but college kids aren't used to this quick of a turnaround and it normally shows with tired legs.
Harvard is a team that slows the pace down quite a bit and in those situations taking double digits is a gift. I'll ride the Harvard Crimson tonight on ESPN2.
|12-31-12||North Texas +14 v. Middle Tennessee St||57-75||Loss||-106||21 h 37 m||Show|
3* Heavy Hitter on North Texas +14
This is a few too many points for Middle Tennessee to be laying today even though I like this team quite a bit. They have beat some SEC teams in Ole Miss and Vanderbilt, plus they knocker off UAB by 20 points.
The issue I have is that they can't take advantage of the Mean Green weakness, which is defending the perimeter. Middle Tennessee only shoots 14 deep balls a game. On the other hand they are very good at defending the 3-point shot, only allowing opponents to shoot 27.8%. The problem is North Texas doesn't shoot a lot of three point shots either so that strength is largely wasted.
Middle Tennessee went into North Texas last year as five point favorites and barely walked away with a 2-point win. If you just look at scoring margins and records this line looks about right, but the way these two teams match up favors North Texas so I think they keep it close and get the cover here today.
|12-31-12||Atlanta Hawks v. Houston Rockets OVER 206.5||Top||104-123||Win||100||8 h 29 m||Show|
5* NBA Total No Brainer on Hawks/Rockets OVER 206.5
The way these two teams are playing right now the OVER makes a lot of sense to me. The Rockets and Hawks met way back on 11/2 in Atlanta and Houston won that game 109-102, so they've already played a high scoring game once this season.
Houston has been an OVER lover's dream lately. Only once in their last six games have either the Rockets or their opponent failed to reach 120 points in a game. It's no surprise that every one of those games went over the total. The only game that failed to reach that mark was Minnesota on 12/26 which was a letdown spot after a big win in Chicago.
The Hawks have been putting up some points too. Atlanta has gone OVER in three straight games and has eclipsed the 100 point barrier in each, they also have allowed 100 points in two of those three games.
Both of these teams like to shoot the 3-ball and both are better at hitting the outside shot than they are at defending it. A lot of factors pointing towards the OVER tonight so I'll ride it.
|12-31-12||Bowling Green +14.5 v. Temple||57-75||Loss||-106||15 h 37 m||Show|
3* High Roller on Bowling Green +14.5 over Temple
This is a lot of points for Temple to be laying to Bowling Green today. The line is slightly overpriced here since the Owls are coming off the big upset win against Syracuse and they have had 8 days rest until now to think about it.
Temple has shot 40% or less in their last five games and that includes wins over teams like Towson and Alcorn State, and a loss to Canisius.
Bowling Green played host to Michigan State this year and lost by 11. they also went to South Florida and lost by 3. Temple might be a little better than South Florida, but they are nowhere near as good as the Spartans so I don't think they will give Bowling Green their worst loss of the season.
Temple has beaten two teams by 15 points, and that was Buffalo and Alcorn State. They only beat Rice by 14 points and the Owls are awful.
System supporting our play here that says to take double digit underdogs in December who are coming off an upset loss as a favorite. These teams are 207-126 (62.2%) since 1997. Bowling Green fits the bill after losing by 3 points as 3 point chalk at North Dakota.
|12-30-12||Utah Jazz v. Los Angeles Clippers OVER 195.5||96-107||Win||100||13 h 25 m||Show|
3* NBA Total Dominator on Clippers/Jazz OVER 195.5
These two teams played a 116-114 game on Friday night and I expect there to be a lot of scoring again on Sunday. In fact, if you look at the previous game the two played back on 12/3 that final was 105-104 as well, but last year the Jazz and the Clippers scoring 201 and 212 in their final two meetings. When these two franchises have squared off recently, a lot of points have been put up.
The Clippers have been putting up a lot of points recently, reaching the 100 point barrier in four straight games. They are averaging 104.1 ppg at home this season while the Jazz are giving up 102 ppg on the road. Utah hasn't given up less than 90 points since back on 12/5, a span of 11 games so with LA's prolific offense I don't see them having much trouble reaching the 100 point barrier.
The Jazz are 63-36 for the OVER on the road after scoring 110 points or more in their previous game and 52-34 OVER when the total is between 190 and 200 the past three years.
|12-30-12||Southern Illinois -4 v. Missouri State||59-70||Loss||-110||10 h 21 m||Show|
3* No Doubt ATS Rout on Southern Illinois -4
Missouri State has been terrible this year, losing eight straight games and only covering once in either tries. Their shooting has been abysmal. In the last five games they have shot 35.5%. They aren't grabbing any of their own rebounds either, in fact they are just nabbing 25 boards per game over their last five.
Southern Illinois isn't great, but they should bring their "A" game today to open Missouri Valley conference play. This is a team that has lost six straight in the series and will be looking for some serious payback on Sunday.
Missouri State is 0-9 ATS after scoring 65 points or less in two straight games the let two years and 0-8 ATS after three or more straight losses.
|12-29-12||Boston Celtics +3.5 v. Golden State Warriors||83-101||Loss||-105||16 h 16 m||Show|
3* False Favorite on Boston Celtics +3.5
I love this matchup with the gritty veterans from Boston taking on the up and comers in the Golden State Warriors. The Warriors have been putting up a lot of points lately, scoring 94 or more in six straight games but their last two victories have come with only 94 and 96 points, so they are slowing down a little bit.
Boston is coming off a disappointing loss to the Clippers in which they were blown out of the water, but this group should rebound for the short road trip to Golden State. The Celtics are 23-7 ATS on the road after an embarrassing road loss in which they scored less than 80 points since 1996.
The Warriors offense has been explosive, but their defense not so much. Boston is shooting at a high rate from the floor at 46.6% which isn't a good matchup for the Warriors who are just 18-32 ATS against teams who make 46% of their shots or higher from the floor the last three years.
|12-29-12||Oklahoma City Thunder -4 v. Houston Rockets||Top||124-94||Win||100||20 h 27 m||Show|
5* No Limit Play on Oklahoma City Thunder -4
The Thunder were the hottest team in the NBA up until losing at Minnesota and at Miami in back-to-back games, then on Thursday night trailed most of the game to the Dallas Mavericks. This has setup the rare situation for OKC this season in which they have lost three straight games for their backers at the pay window. I expect that trend to end here tonight against the Houston Rockets.
The Rockets on the other hand had won five in a row before dropping last night's contest to the San Antonio Spurs, but they still managed to cover giving them six straight at the pay window. This has caused them to be a little over-valued tonight against a team they can't match up with.
The Thunder played Houston earlier this year and put up 120 points on them, which is no surprise since OKC is averaging 105 ppg. The Rockets can score the rock too, but they give up 102.5 ppg compared to the 96.8 ppg the Thunder allow. Coming off a high tempo game against the in-state rival San Antonio Spurs, I just can't see them having enough in the tank to keep it close against Oklahoma City.
The Thunder on the other hand should be out to get back on track and pick up the easy win in Houston Saturday.
|12-29-12||Fairfield v. Old Dominion +3||55-54||Win||100||20 h 7 m||Show|
3* Vegas Insider on Old Dominion +2.5
Fairfield is over-valued in this spot here today coming in off four straight covers and a straight up win as an 11 point underdog over St. Joseph's. This puts them in a little bit of a letdown spot as they see Old Dominion on the schedule at 2-10 on the year.
Old Dominion though has played better than their record would indicate and has some momentum of their own off a 2 points win against Virginia, this is the same Virginia team that beat Fairfield by 9 points earlier in the year.
The public sees a 2-10 team and immediately turns their head, but this team has covered in three of their last four games, missing the fourth cover by a single point at College of Charleston. This is a fairly good rebounding team, which makes up for their low shooting percentage and gives them a chance to keep this game close. I think you see the Monarchs pull the upset here Saturday.
|12-29-12||Towson +15.5 v. Oregon State||67-66||Win||100||17 h 8 m||Show|
3* Major Mismatch on Towson State +15.5
I like taking this many points when a team has played as good of defense as Towson State has this year. This team is holding opponents to just 38.7% shooting from the floor and limited Georgetown to just 29% from the field.
Towson State has won just once in their last six games, but a closer look shows they played Georgetown to a 40-46 game and Temple to a 61-72 final, covering both times.
You look at Oregon State and see their 9-2 record with five straight wins and it can be a little misleading. This team has only played two lined games in their last five and failed to cover against San Diego as 7.5 point favorites and Portland State laying 13.
Nobody is going to be on Towson today, but in a low scoring game if you can catch 15.5 points it's too good of value to pass up.
|12-29-12||Virginia Tech v. Brigham Young UNDER 152.5||Top||71-97||Loss||-110||15 h 8 m||Show|
5* CBB Total No Brainer on Virginia Tech BYU UNDER 152.5
Lot of points here today when Virginia Tech & BYU meet up in Salt Lake. The Hokies are coming off a poor showing against Colorado State where they scored just 52 points and lost by 36 points. They haven't reached the 75 point barrier since 12/1, a stark contrast to their high scoring ways to start the year off. Va Tech has played good defensively though allowing three of their last five opponents to shoot less than 37% from the floor.
BYU comes into this game having allowed less than 70 points to four of their last five opponents and has given up 38% or less shooting to three of their last five.
On the year neither one of these teams is close to averaging this many points, and both teams have held opponents to low shooting percentages. Last year these two met and the score was 29-25 at half before a second half outburst took the final to 70-68. Everything about this game points towards the UNDER.
|12-28-12||Los Angeles Clippers v. Utah Jazz +3||116-114||Win||100||11 h 6 m||Show|
4* NBA SMASH on Jazz +3
LA's winning streak is in jeopardy tonight as it goes up against one of the best home teams in the league. The Jazz are 9-3 at home this season. They went 25-8 at home last season. The Clippers have managed to win their last two in Utah, but those wins came by a total of three points. The Jazz are 29-4 at home versus the Clippers since 1996.
In terms of the point spread, we find that the home team is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings. We also find that the Clippers are 5-17 ATS in the last 22 meetings and 5-16 ATS in the last 21 meetings in Utah.
The Jazz take pride in their home-court dominance so the fact they are coming off a double-digit loss at home can't be sitting well. The Jazz have responded following such defeats and are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home. They are also 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games versus a team with a winning road record. Bet Utah.
|12-28-12||Denver Nuggets -2 v. Dallas Mavericks||Top||106-85||Win||100||11 h 19 m||Show|
5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Nuggets -2
Here we have two teams headed in opposite directions, and I won't hesitate to take the one on the upswing.
The Mavs have lost seven of eight while the Nuggets have won six of nine. Denver has gone 7-2 ATS in these games.
This is a game the Nuggets had circled heading into the season as they lost last season's last three meetings with the Mavs by double digits. These defeats should fuel a very motivated performance from Denver.
The Nuggets have been a terrific investment on the road where they are on a 60-41 ATS run. It is also worth noting that the Nuggets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Dallas, and the road team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
The Nuggets have a big edge on the boards. They average 56 rebounds per game while the Mavs average just 49. It is also significant that Dallas gives up an average of 55 boards per game. That's because the Nuggets are on a 66-42 ATS run versus poor rebounding teams that are outrebounded by 3.0 or more boards per game.
In addition, the Mavs are on a 10-25 ATS slide versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds per game. Take Denver.
|12-28-12||Houston Rockets v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 214||116-122||Loss||-110||9 h 28 m||Show|
3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Rockets/Spurs Under 214
The Rockets and Spurs combined for 260 points the last time they met. However, they hadn't combined to score more than 207 points in any of the previous five matchups. With this in mind, I'll gladly take the Under.
The Spurs have finished under the total in six of their last eight games, and the Rockets have played to the under in five of their last eight. The Spurs have come in under the number in four of their last five at home, and the Rockets have finished below the number in four of their last five on the road.
Looking back even further into the history of this matchup, we find that the Under is 29-14 in the last 43 meetings and 16-5 in the last 21 meetings in San Antonio.
When these two met Dec. 10, they combined for 30 three-point makes that totaled 90 points. They only average a total of 19 three-point makes so we should see 33 less points scored if these teams hit their averages. Plus, we must factor in that the previous meeting went into OT and that 20 points were scored in the extra frame. With this in mind, we should see right around 207 total points scored in this one. Bet the Under.
|12-28-12||Iona v. St. Joseph's -6.5||91-96||Loss||-105||8 h 16 m||Show|
4* NCAAB *BEST BET* on St. Joseph's -6.5
Motivated by back-to-back upset losses to Villanova and Fairfield, and further fueled by last season's 5-point loss at Iona, expect St. Joseph's to take care of business this evening.
The Hawks are an impressive 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games following a loss and 13-6 ATS in their last 19 home games. The Gaels, meanwhile, are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games following a win of more than 20 points.
This experienced St. Joe's squad is 7-0 ATS in home games the last 2 seasons versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 4 points or more per game. They have won these contests by an average score of 74.7 to 61.6.
Iona, on the other hand, is 1-12 ATS the last 2 seasons versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 4 points or more per game. Lay the number with St. Joe's in this highly motivated spot.
|12-27-12||Boston Celtics +8.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers||77-106||Loss||-107||12 h 54 m||Show|
3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Celtics +8.5
The Clippers are being overvalued because they have won 14 in a row. Don't think for a second that this experienced Boston squad isn't capable of giving them all they want and more.
Boston has been a terrific investment when catching points on the road under coach Doc Rivers. It is 126-98 ATS as a road underdog under his watch. It is also 46-30 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points under Rivers and has lost these games by only 5.7 points on average.
As a 5-point dog in last season's meeting in LA, the Celtics took down the Clippers 94-85. The underdog has been a golden investment in this series as it is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Bet Boston.
|12-27-12||Rhode Island v. Saint Marys CA -16.5||59-82||Win||100||11 h 9 m||Show|
3* NCAAB SMASH on Saint Mary's -16.5
Motivated by Sunday's upset loss at Northern Iowa, St. Mary's will be ready to run up the score at home against an inferior opponent tonight.
The Gaels are 5-0 at home where they are winning by an average of 28.8 points. It is significant that they failed to cover the number last game as they are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss.
Rhode Island has won its last two against SMU and Georgia State but is still only 13-29-1 ATS in its last 43 games following a SU win. These two victories stemmed from keeping their opponent off the offensive glass, but they'll have a tough time keeping the Gaels off the offensive glass at home where they are averaging 12 offensive boards per game.
Rhode Island is 0-10 ATS after 2 straight games of giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons. Take St. Mary's.
|12-26-12||Miami Heat v. Charlotte Bobcats +10.5||Top||105-92||Loss||-107||11 h 35 m||Show|
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Charlotte Bobcats +10.5
Off yesterday's big statement win over the Thunder, expect the Heat to suffer a letdown.
Miami has been far from invincible on the road where it is just 5-4 and has only one win of more than 10 points. One of its road defeats came to the lowly Washington Wizards so Miami can certainly be had here.
The Bobcats have lost 15 in a row, but they have been competitive at home during this stretch. Each of their last three and six of seven home losses during this span have come by less than 10 points. Two of these were against the Clippers and Knicks so they have shown they can take good teams right down to the wire.
The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games versus a team with a losing home record. They are also 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. Bet the Bobcats.
|12-25-12||Oklahoma City Thunder +3 v. Miami Heat||97-103||Loss||-105||26 h 2 m||Show|
3* NBA SMASH on OKC Thunder +3
Motivated by a loss at Minnesota in its last game, and especially motivated by four consecutive losses to the Heat in last season's NBA Finals, Oklahoma City will want this game just a little bit more.
History is pretty clear on which side is the right one in this situation. Consider that underdogs that have won five or six of their last seven games, provided they have won 75.0 percent or more of their games on the season and are matched up against a team that has won 60.0 to 75.0 percent of its games, are 100-54 ATS since 1996. The teams fitting into this scenario were underdogs of 3.7 points on average but lost by only 1.3 points on average.
The Thunder have been money in the bank in road games following an upset loss on the road. They are a perfect 8-0 ATS in these spots the last three seasons, winning by an average of 8.0 points. They are also 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on 3 or more days' rest. Take the Thunder.
|12-25-12||Boston Celtics v. Brooklyn Nets UNDER 188.5||Top||93-76||Win||100||21 h 46 m||Show|
5* NBA "Total" Dominator on Celtics/Nets Under 188.5
The earliest Christmas day game has gone under the total every year going back to 2004. Apparently, these guys don't like getting up early. I expect this trend to continue.
The last meeting between these teams went under as just 178 total points were scored. This one has the potential to be even lower scoring. The Celtics have allowed the Nets to score 102 and 95 points, respectively, in each of the season's first two meetings. The defensive effort in those games can't be sitting well with a Boston squad that has prided itself on defense under the watch of Doc Rivers. I'm expecting a much better defensive showing from the C's this time around.
The Nets, which rank sixth in the NBA with 93.9 points allowed per game, have been getting it done on the defensive end all season. I expect no different in this one.
The Nets have finished under the total in each of their last four games. Also, the under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings between these two.
Boston has gone over the total in its last three but is 14-4 under in road games after 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 3 seasons. We have seen only 178.4 total points scored on average in this situation. Take the Under.
|12-23-12||Philadelphia 76ers v. Brooklyn Nets -5.5||Top||92-95||Loss||-105||7 h 22 m||Show|
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Nets -5.5
The 76ers are struggling to win on the road. They have dropped each of their last five road games with the last four road defeats coming by seven points or more. Consequently, they are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.
Since the beginning of last season, Philly is 1-9 ATS in road games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%). It has lost these contests by an average score of 96.4 to 84.5. It is also 9-19 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons, losing these contests by an average score of 97.8 to 90.0.
The Nets will be the fresher team as they have had three full days to gear up. They should also be the hungrier team as they look to snap a three-game skid in the series. The Nets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on 3 days' rest or more. Bet the Nets.
|12-23-12||St Mary's CA v. Northern Iowa +2.5||75-82||Win||100||6 h 57 m||Show|
4* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Northern Iowa +2.5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats outside Cedar Falls, and further fueled by a 16-point setback at St. Mary's last season, expect Northern Iowa to take care of business on its home floor Sunday.
The Panthers are a perfect 5-0 at home this season, winning these games by an average of 21.8 points. They won't be the least bit intimidated by the Gaels as they have already stepped on the floor with teams like Louisville, Stanford, Memphis and Iowa and UNLV.
N. Iowa does a pretty good job of getting to the foul line at home where it is averaging 21 free throw attempts and connecting on 16 of those. This doesn't bode well for St. Mary's which is giving up 24 free throw attempts in games played away from home this season. The Gaels are 1-8 ATS in road games versus good free throw shooting teams that making 72% of their attempts or better over the last 3 seasons. They have lost by an average score of 71.4 to 65.3 in these contests. Take Northern Iowa.
|12-22-12||Duquesne v. Louisiana-Lafayette -3||79-91||Win||100||11 h 2 m||Show|
3* NCAAB SMASH on UL Lafayette -3
Motivated by back-to-back defeats and out for revenge for last season's embarrassing 19-point loss at Duquesne, expect UL Lafayette to bounce back in a big way this evening.
Duquesne enters off a win over Western Michigan but is a poor 1-9 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. It is 0-8 ATS in road games when checking in with 2 wins in 3 games over the last 2 seasons. It has lost these contests by an average score of 78.3 to 60.9.
The Dukes are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games overall and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games.
In addition, the Ragin' Cajuns are on a reliable 65-43 ATS run in games when the line is +3 to -3. Lay the number.
|12-22-12||Utah Jazz +9.5 v. Miami Heat||89-105||Loss||-110||11 h 4 m||Show|
4* NBA SMASH on Jazz +9.5
Based on the line, oddsmakers are begging for the money to come in on the Heat following three consecutive double-digit wins. We won't take the bait. The Jazz are a quality basketball team that has performed well against good opponents. They played the Clippers to a 1-point game and have a win against the Spurs. They certainly have what it takes to Miami all it wants and more, especially since the Heat will have a hard time not looking ahead to their Christmas showdown with Oklahoma City. The Heat are a poor 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games versus teams that have a winning record.
The underdog is on a 9-2 ATS run in this series. Plus, Utah has won 3 of the last 4 meetings, including the most recent matchup in Miami. Bet the Jazz.
|12-22-12||Chicago Bulls v. Atlanta Hawks -3||Top||75-92||Win||100||11 h 34 m||Show|
5* NBA Game of the Week on Hawks -3
Off last night's big upset win in New York, expect the Bulls to suffer a letdown in Atlanta tonight. The Hawks, meanwhile, will be extremely motivated after laying an egg in Philadelphia last night. They will be further fueled by the 21-point beat down the Bulls handed them in the most recent meeting.
One thing you haven't wanted to make a habit of is backing the Bulls following a win. That's because they are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU win and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win.
The Hawks have been a terrific investment in games oddsmakers expect to be close. They are an impressive 32-18 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons. It is also worth noting that they are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games when playing without a day of rest. Take Atlanta.
|12-22-12||Detroit Pistons v. Washington Wizards||96-87||Loss||-110||11 h 34 m||Show|
3* NBA SMASH on Wizards pk
The Wizards will be the hungrier team tonight after losing 100-68 in Detroit last night. Consider that Washington is 6-2-2 ATS in its last 10 games overall, 6-2-1 ATS in its last 9 games following a SU loss, 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games following an ATS loss and 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The Wizards are also 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 home games and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing without a day of rest.
The Pistons are a miserable 2-13 on the road this season. They are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall, 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games versus a team with a losing record, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win. They are also a pathetic 7-28 ATS in their last 35 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Washington has its revenge tonight.
|12-22-12||Wake Forest v. NC-Greensboro||84-70||Loss||-110||6 h 15 m||Show|
4* NCAAB *BEST BET* on NC Greensboro pk
The Demon Deacons can't be trusted away from home against this experienced NC Greensboro squad that returns 4 starters. Wake is 1-3 away from home this season and 2-5 ATS in its last 7 true road games.
The Deacs have been a dead fade when checking in off a win as they are 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a victory. It is also worth noting that college teams headed up by Jeff Bzdelik are 3-12 ATS in road games after a win by 15 points or more since 1997. In other words, he has been unsuccessful in getting his team refocused following a lopsided victory.
The Demon Deacons are also 6-17-3 ATS in their last 26 games following an ATS win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games versus a team with a losing home record.
The Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Take NC Greensboro.
|12-21-12||Charlotte Bobcats +10.5 v. Golden State Warriors||100-115||Loss||-105||13 h 19 m||Show|
3* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Bobcats +10.5
It will be tough for the Warriors to cover this big number considering the level of fatigue that has to be setting in. This will be Golden State's third game in four days and its sixth in 10 days. Plus, the Warriors have a big showdown with the Lakers tomorrow night. They'll be more concerned with that game than a Charlotte squad they defeated by eight points on the road earlier this month.
Consider that plays against favorites of 10 or more points in the first half of the season, provided they are a tired team that is playing six or more games in 10 days, are 45-18 ATS the last five seasons. These teams have been favored by 12.1 points on average but have won by just 7.7 points on average.
Charlotte will be hungry tonight following a poor performance at Phoenix in its last game. Plus, it will be out to avenge the aforementioned loss to the Warriors. I'll gladly grab the points here considering the Bobcats have won or lost by eight points or less in each of the past nine meetings with the Warriors. That's a 9-0 trend in our favor. Bet the Bobcats.
|12-21-12||Southern Utah v. Denver -19||47-72||Win||100||8 h 17 m||Show|
3* NCAAB SMASH on Denver -19
Off Tuesday's disappointing performance at Wyoming, Denver will be ready to take out its frustrations on Southern Utah when it steps back on its home floor this evening.
Denver's last two home performances have been dominant to say the least. The Pioneers defeated Mercer by 29 on Dec. 5 and Nebraska-Omaha by 35 on Dec. 15. They'll have an excellent opportunity to run up the score against a Southern Utah squad that is 0-5 outside its home gym this season. The Thunderbirds lost these five games by an average of 24.0 points.
Denver has been a terrific investment at home for quite some time. In fact, it is 42-26 ATS in all lined home games under coach Joe Scott. It is 33-21 ATS under his watch as a home favorite or pickem. It is also worth noting that the Pioneers are 19-10 ATS in home games following a road loss under Scott. Bet Denver.
|12-20-12||Nicholls State +18 v. Utah State||72-79||Win||100||14 h 35 m||Show|
3* NCAAB SMASH on Nicholls State +18
The Colonels are just 1-5 on the season but a matchup with 6-1 Utah State won't have them shaking in their boots. That's because they have already stepped on the floor with Vanderbilt, Missouri and Michigan State. The Aggies haven't faced nearly as challenging of a schedule. Besides, they have been consistently overvalued against teams like Nicholls State that have been outscored by a wide margin. Consider that Utah State is on a 2-11 ATS slide versus teams that are outscored by an average of 12.0 points or more per game. They have won these games on average but only by 13.6 points.
In addition, plays on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points after a game in which they allowed their opponent to shoot 55.0 percent from the field or higher, provided they are an average shooting team (42.5-45%) and are up against a good defensive team (40-42.5%), are 76-35 ATS since 1997, 18-2 ATS the last 3 seasons and 2-0 ATS this season. This system basically shows the way oddsmakers tend to undervalue teams following a poor defensive effort when they are matched up against good defensive teams.
Look for this experienced Nicholls State squad to keep this one within the number.
|12-20-12||Oklahoma City Thunder v. Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5||Top||93-99||Win||100||11 h 48 m||Show|
5* NBA *BEST BET* on Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5
Off last night's satisfying win in Atlanta, I expect the Thunder to look right past a Minnesota team they have defeated 12 straight times and ahead to their Christmas matchup with the Miami Heat.
While Oklahoma City has had Minnesota's number, many of these matchups have been close. As a result, the Thunder are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings and 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Minnesota. OKC has won by just 3.67 points on average in its last 6 visits to Minnesota so the value clearly lies with the T-Wolves catching more than that.
The Timberwolves lost by 11 at Miami in their last game but are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a loss of more than 10 points. They are also 15-4 ATS versus good teams like OKC that outscore their opponents by 3.0 points or more per game over the last 2 seasons. They have lost to these teams by only 0.7 points on average. Take the T-Wolves.
|12-19-12||South Carolina State +26.5 v. Iowa||Top||46-90||Loss||-110||11 h 1 m||Show|
5* NCAAB *BEST BET* on South Carolina State +26.5
Iowa will have a tough time getting up for this game following back-to-back emotional revenge wins over in-state rivals Iowa State and Northern Iowa. Plus, the Hawkeyes are being overvalued here because they have won four in a row straight up and three in a row against the spread. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, are being undervalued because oddsmakers have overreacted to Monday's 102-51 loss to Missouri.
Plays on underdogs of 20 or more points that check in off a blowout loss of 30 points or more and are matched up against an opponent that has scored 75 points or more in 3 straight games are 25-6 ATS since 1997. These teams have been underdogs of 26.8 points on average but have lost by an average of only 22.2 points. Take the points.
|12-19-12||Oakland v. West Virginia -11||71-76||Loss||-108||10 h 58 m||Show|
3* NCAAB SMASH on West Virginia -11
Hungry following consecutive defeats, look for the Mountaineers to take their frustrations out on an Oakland squad that has struggled on the highway.
Oakland is just 1-7 SU in games played away from home this season and has lost these by an average of 11.6 points.
The Mountaineers have delivered in the big chalk role as they are 6-0 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points over the last 2 seasons and have won these games by an average score of 82.5 to 56.0. They are also on a 20-3 ATS run as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points and have won these contests by an average score of 80.4 to 62.8. Bet West Virginia.
|12-19-12||South Dakota State v. Belmont -8.5||49-76||Win||104||10 h 40 m||Show|
4* NCAAB SMASH on Belmont -8.5
After getting smoked at Kansas in its last game, Belmont will be ready to go when it hits its home floor tonight. The Bruins are 3-0 at home where they have won by an average of 29.3 points. They have proven they can hang with the big boys, as evidenced by their upset win over Stanford on the road.
South Dakota State isn't as battle-tested as Belmont as it hasn't played as challenging of a schedule. Plus, it has struggled on the road, going just 1-3 in true road games this season.
The Jackrabbits are only 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a win. Lay the number.
|12-19-12||Iowa State v. UMKC +16.5||76-61||Win||100||9 h 24 m||Show|
4* NCAAB SMASH on UMKC +16.5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats, expect UMKC to keep this one closer than the oddsmakers think.
The Kangaroos haven't lost by more than 10 points at home this season, and will have an excellent opportunity to keep this one within the number against an Iowa State squad that has struggled away from home. The Cyclones are just 1-3 SU and ATS in games played outside Ames, IA this season. The Cyclones are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 true road games.
It is also significant that UMKC failed to cover the number in its last game as it is a hot 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games following an ATS loss. Take the Kangaroos.