|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|01-25-13||Oklahoma City Thunder v. Sacramento Kings UNDER 209.5||105-95||Win||100||13 h 25 m||Show|
4* NBA Total Dominator on Thunder/Kings UNDER
This is a pretty high number here tonight but I see some value with the UNDER. Oklahoma City has been scoring a lot of points lately, but cooled off a little against Golden State last time out. That loss is important to note because if you look at the teams last three losses, they dial up the defense in the next game. They held the 76ers to 85 points, Wolves to 84, and Clippers to 97 following their last three defeats.
The Kings have had trouble scoring lately. They have scored 97 or less in four of their last five games, and only managed 69 against Memphis last Friday night. I think they will struggle to get points on the board against Oklahoma City again here tonight.
A couple of situations support our play here tonight. One says to take the UNDER when the total is over 200 one team is coming off an upset loss while the other is coming off an upset loss as a home favorite. This system is 85-52 (62%) for the UNDER since 1996. The other is to take the UNDER when the road team has a winning record and is playing on Friday night. This situation is 110-59 (67.4%) for the UNDER the last five seasons.
|01-25-13||Houston Rockets +3 v. New Orleans Hornets||100-82||Win||100||11 h 25 m||Show|
3* on Houston +
I've been burned the last two times out thinking the Rockets were going to come out of their funk, but I think tonight is the night they actually do so. These two teams met back on January 9th and Houston was a two point favorite down in New Orleans. Even though they lost the game, the line change shows you how much the odds makers have changed their outlook on these two teams and I think it's a little too drastic of a move in such a short period of time.
New Orleans has played well lately, but they are still getting outscored by four ppg on the season compared to a Rockets team that is outscoring their opponents by one each time out. Even with the home court advantage that would leave this line to be closer to a Houston as a small favorite instead of a small underdog.
|01-25-13||Detroit Pistons v. Miami Heat -9.5||88-110||Win||100||11 h 55 m||Show|
3* on Miami Heat -
The Heat were a little rusty last time out, but came alive in the second half and overtime to beat the Toronto Raptors. It was understandable why Miami got off to such a slow start, they had five days rest coming into the game and were off a big win in LA over the Lakers.
Detroit has been playing pretty well lately too, which is why they are over-valued here tonight. They have covered in three straight games, but will be playing their fourth contest in six nights, while this will only be Miami's second game in more than a week.
The other aspect I like about this game is miami will be out for revenge. The Heat were six point favorites in Detroit just after Christmas and lost by ten to the Pistons. Don't think Detroit won't have Miami's full attention tonight, and that is scary if you are a Pistons fan. Lay the points here.
|01-25-13||Canisius +1 v. Rider||67-50||Win||100||10 h 19 m||Show|
3* HEAVY HITTER on Canisius +
Despite struggling a little bit lately, I think Canisius is the better team and should pick up the win over Rider here tonight. The Golden Griffins are an excellent three point shooting team. They attempt 24 3-point shots per game and are hitting 39% of them, and even though they shoot so many long range bombs they still do a good job of getting to the line where they convert over 72% of their free throws.
Rider has been playing well but are over-valued in this spot. The Broncs have covered in seven straight games and have a five game winning streak. They have played solid defense, allowing four of their last five opponents to shoot less than 40%. The problem is they aren't that strong offensively, and none of the teams they have played during this stretch can shoot the three like Canisius.
Rider beat the Griffins twice last year, and I think this team will be out for some revenge here tonight so take the small number.
|01-24-13||San Diego +14.5 v. Saint Marys CA||48-81||Loss||-110||14 h 10 m||Show|
4* HEAVY HITTER on San Diego +
St. Mary's has looked good so far this year, winning seven of their last eight games and that sole loss being at Gonzaga. However, I think they are laying a few too many points here to a decent San Diego squad. The Torreros were on a five game winning streak of their own with upset wins at San Francisco and at Pepperdine. Their streak came to an end at BYU, a team that is comparable to what they will face here tonight.
St. Mary's shoots a lot of three-pointers, and hits them at a high rate (38.5%). However, San Diego does a good job defending the perimeter, allowing only 30.6% of their opponents three-point attempts to hit. This is a pretty solid matchup for the Torreros and I think they keep it close enough to get us the cover here tonight.
Our play falls into a nice situation here that says to fade double digit favorites off a conference win by 20+ points or more when playing an opponent off a double digit conference loss. This situation has gone 72-38 (65.5%) the last five years. You also want to take double digit underdogs off a conference road loss when playing an opponent off two or more straight road wins. This system is 57-22 (72.2%) ATS over the last five years.
|01-24-13||Idaho State +14 v. Montana||51-70||Loss||-110||12 h 11 m||Show|
4* PUBLIC BLOOD BATH on Idaho State +
I'm not going to sugar coat this one that Idaho State is a decent team with a chance to win. They aren't a good team and a win would be a surprise. However, a couple of things I like here. The first is that it's a classic look ahead game for Montana. They have Weber State on deck Saturday so you can bet they spent a little bit of time preparing for that game instead of worrying about the 4-13 Bengals.
The other thing I like is that both of these teams play at a very slow pace. Idaho State averages under 60 possessions per game, while Montana is only at 65. With few chances to score, it's always a wise idea to take the double digits.
Last year Idaho State went up to Montana and lost by 36 points. They were also beat on their home floor by 24. The Grizzlies are going to take this team lightly, but Idaho State should be giving this game their full attention to avoid another embarrassment. I'll take the points.
A few systems support our play here today that say to play against home double digit favorites off a home conference win against an opponent off an upset loss as a favorite. This system has gone 96-55 (63.6%) ATS since 1997. You want to take double digit underdogs after two straight games in which both teams score 65 points or less. This system is 189-114 (62.4%) the last five years.
|01-24-13||Austin Peay St +10.5 v. Jacksonville State||74-81||Win||100||11 h 10 m||Show|
3* on Austin Peay +
The public looks at this game and see a 12-7 Jackonsville State team at home against a 5-15 Austin Peay and immediately sides with the home team, but not so fast. The Governors have a great shot at upsetting the Gamecocks in this one. They are a solid three-point shooting team that hits 40.5% of their attempts from beyond the arc. The Gamecocks have done a good job of defending the three-point shot this year, but they haven't seen anyone who can shoot like this.
The Gamecocks shoot just 42.5% from the floor and 30% at home from behind the arc, so I don't know how they are going to put up enough points in this one to cover a double digit spread. The Governors are coming off a pair of upset losses on their home floor, and I think the change of scenery does them well here tonight. Take the points in what should be a close game.
|01-24-13||Tennessee-Martin +5.5 v. Eastern Illinois||Top||56-69||Loss||-110||11 h 10 m||Show|
5* CBB NO BRAINER on Tennessee-Martin +
I'll take the points here with the Skyhawks. Eastern Illinois is one of the worst defensive teams I have seen, allowing opponents to make 48.2% of their shots on the season. I know that Tennessee-Martin isn't going to set the nets on fire with how they shoot, but they should get some easy buckets tonight.
I also like the fact that the Panthers slow the pace down so much with only 60 possessions per game. When you have a slow down team like this who allows such a hefty field goal percentage, the points are too good to pass up.
Tennessee-Martin is 15-3 ATS against teams who average 53 or less shots per game the last three years while Eastern Illinois is 0-7 ATS against teams winning less than 40% of their games the last three, a big reason they are 1-12 ATS as a home favorite during that time.
|01-24-13||New York Knicks -1 v. Boston Celtics||89-86||Win||100||11 h 51 m||Show|
3* HIGH ROLLER on New York Knicks -
Boston is struggling again and I don't see them getting out of their funk tonight against New York. The Celtics have lost four in a row and they were favored to win each of those games. The last two weren't even really close and those losses came to Detroit and Cleveland due to them shooting below 40% from the field.
New York comes into this game well rested due to their trip last Thursday to London, and you know the Knick players have had this circled since the last time these two teams played on January 7th. That is when Kevin Garnett supposedly said some out of line thing to Carmelo, and I have a feeling New York is going to rally around their star tonight and give this Celtic team some payback. I'll lay the small number and roll with the Knicks.
|01-24-13||Georgia Southern +8 v. Appalachian State||62-64||Win||100||10 h 11 m||Show|
4* CBB VEGAS INSIDER on Georgia Southern +
Appalachian State is laying a few too many points here in this spot. Georgia Southern got caught taking a bad opponent lightly their last time out and lost at home by 15 points to the Citadel. They were favored by double digits and never really showed up. Those games are normally followed by hard work and attention to detail in practice, so I think they come back in a big way tonight.
App State is off a couple of disappointing road losses in games that went down to the wire, but this team is going to have trouble blowing anyone out the way they play defense. The Mountaineers are allowing their opponents to shoot 46.7% on the year.
I also like how the Eagles play at a slow pace. When you limit the number of possessions and you are getting this many points, it normally spells a cover.
|01-24-13||IUPU-Indianapolis +13 v. Oakland||71-89||Loss||-110||10 h 9 m||Show|
3* on Indiana-Purdue +
I like this matchup with Indiana-Purdue going on the road to take on Oakland. The Jaguars are a pretty good shooting team, especially from three-point range where they have hit 39.2% of their shots on the road. That's good because Oakland allows 40.3% 3-point shooting at home, and gives up about three more outside looks per game than their opponents average.
Neither one of these two teams can play defense, but IUPUI is the better shooting team. Even though they don't get to the line as often, nor do they rebound as well, the better shooting team getting this many points is too good to pass up.
A couple of systems support our play here on IUPUI tonight. One says to play against home teams off a conference loss as a favorite of six or more when they also have a losing record. This situation is 52-20 (72.2%) ATS over the last five years. Another solid situation is to take double digit underdogs revenging a home loss against an opponent off an upset loss as a favorite. These teams are 37-11 (77.1%) ATS the last five years.
|01-23-13||Oklahoma City Thunder v. Golden State Warriors +2||99-104||Win||100||13 h 33 m||Show|
4* NBA NO BRAINER on Golden State Warriors +
This is a tough situation for the Oklahoma City Thunder. Not only are they playing off a back-to-back, but they are coming off a big win over the LA Clippers, the team many think is their top competition for the Western Conference. Not only that, but they played an overtime game in Denver on Sunday and they will be playing their 7th game in 11 nights.
The Warriors have looked tough in their last two games with Stephen Curry back at full strength. they played tough in San Antonio, then beat a hot Hornets team in New Orleans and then the Clippers. I don't think they are getting enough respect here tonight, especially with the rest situation factored in. I'll gladly take the Warriors in what should be an upset win.
|01-23-13||Washington State +11.5 v. Oregon||61-68||Win||100||12 h 54 m||Show|
3* on Washington State +
This is a sandwich game for Oregon. The Ducks are off a big win at UCLA last Saturday and will head to Washington to face a Huskies team that is 4-1 in Pac-12 play this Saturday. In between is a Washington State squad that is just 1-4 in league play and 10-8 overall.
The Cougars though will be out for revenge for what happened last year. They lost by nine points up here in Eugene and by 17 points at home to the Ducks. That means this team will be getting their full attention here today as they would like nothing more than to upset the conference leader.
Washington State plays at a very slow methodical pace and will limit the possessions the Ducks have. With a low scoring game like that it's tough not to like a double digit underdog.
You want to play against home favorites of double digits off a conference win playing against an opponent off an upset loss as a home favorite. This play has gone 78-41 (65.5%) the last five years. You also want to fade double digit home favorites after seven or more straight wins when the team has won 80% or more of their games on the season. This situation has gone 199-127 (61%) the last five years.
|01-23-13||Denver Nuggets v. Houston Rockets -2||105-95||Loss||-105||10 h 3 m||Show|
3* on Houston Rockets -
Houston ended their losing streak on Monday but they still haven't covered the last seven games. This has created some value here tonight as they should be laying more than a field goal on their home floor to the Denver Nuggets.
Denver came into Houston earlier this year and upset the Rockets, I think these players will be out for revenge here tonight. Not only that, but the Rockets need a win here to make up some ground on Denver in the Western Conference playoff race.
Denver is only 9-15 on the road this year as they have a significant home court advantage, but then struggle outside of Colorado. They are losing by 2.5 ppg, and this Rockets team is better than average. They have won at home by an average of 5.4 ppg this year while compiling a 14-7 record on their home floor. Lay the small number with confidence here tonight.
|01-23-13||Wright State v. Youngstown State -3||Top||61-68||Win||100||10 h 47 m||Show|
5* NO DOUBT BLOWOUT on Youngstown State -
Wright State is a good team but they should be getting more points in this situation. This team is coming off a tough stretch, they played Saturday against a good Valparaiso team and only lost by six, then came back on Monday and won at Detroit. However, this will be their third game in five days, which is a rare occurrence for college basketball's regular season. Youngstown State had several days to prepare so they should be more ready for this one.
People will look at Wright State's 14-5 record against Youngstown's 10-8 and cringe, but looking at the margin of victory you will see 5.4 ppg for Wright and 4.5 ppg for Youngstown, so these teams are closer than you think. Add in the rest factor and the home court advantage and this team should be laying six plus.
|01-23-13||Northern Illinois v. Central Michigan -8.5||74-61||Loss||-110||9 h 25 m||Show|
3* on Central Michigan -
Northern Illinois has been awful on the road this year, going 1-8 but losing by more than 12 ppg. Central Michigan might not be a great team, but they are 5-1 at home and winning by more than 5 ppg.
I like this matchup for the Chippewas. They do a good job of getting to the line and then converting their free throws, while the Huskies foul too much and send their opponents to the charity stripe. Central Michigan has trouble defending the three point shot, but that shouldn't be a problem with Northern Illinois making only 27.$ of their long range attempts this year. On the other hand, Central Michigan likes to take three's and with Northern Illinois giving up 37.3% from behind the arc they should get a lot of open looks.
Northern Illinois is struggling lately, losing eight of their last nine and they are coming off a 37 point beating at home versus Western Michigan. CMU on the other hand should be high on confidence after beating Ball State by 14 on Saturday. They have covered nine of their last 11, and they cash again at the pay window for us here tonight.
|01-23-13||Pennsylvania +17.5 v. Temple||69-76||Win||100||9 h 25 m||Show|
4* HEAVY HITTER on Penn +
This is a classic look ahead spot for Temple here today. Saturday this team goes to Butler to take on the Bulldogs, so I don't think their full attention is going to be on the a Penn team who checks into this game with a 3-14 record. Penn might not be very good, but they had done a decent job of covering the spread. They played Butler to a 13 point game and Princeton to 12 with both of those games coming on the road.
Temple has been favored by double digits six times so far this year and has only covered the large spread one time. They aren't good at running away from teams, even those as bad as the Quakers. I'll take the large number here in what should not be a blowout game.
A bunch of situations back our play here today. The first says to fade double digit favorites who win more than 60% of their games against teams winning less than 20%. These teams have gone 264-173 (60.4%) ATS since 1997. On the other hand you want to take road, double digit underdogs after a loss by 15 points or more against an opponent coming off a game in which both teams combined for 155 or more points. These teams are 118-67 (63.8%) the last five seasons.
|01-23-13||Penn State +25.5 v. Indiana||49-72||Win||100||9 h 24 m||Show|
4* CBB NO BRAINER on Penn State +
Penn State is not a good team while Indiana is one of the best in the nation, but they don't have any business getting this many points. They only lost to the Badgers in Wisconsin by nine points, and lost by nine to Michigan State. They already faced the Hoosiers once this year and while they lost by 23, you can't expect Indiana to keep the pedal to the medal much more than that here today.
The Hoosiers have Michigan State on deck, so when this team gets a lead I expect them to make sure their guys get plenty of rest, and not show the Spartans anything new. This is a classic look passed situation, and the Nittany Lions take advantage with a cover.
A lot of systems back our play here tonight. You want to play against favorites of 10 points or more who score 78+ ppg against a team scoring less than 63 ppg during the second half of the season, when the team allowed 60 or less last time out. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5%) since 1997. You also want to play against home favorites of 20+ points after a win over a conference foe. These teams are 84-40 (67.7%) ATS the last five years.
You want to take underdogs of 20 or more points revenging a home loss against an opponent as this situation is 99-44 (69.2%) over the last five seasons.
|01-22-13||Oklahoma City Thunder v. Los Angeles Clippers||109-97||Win||100||13 h 11 m||Show|
3* HEAVY HITTER on Oklahoma City +
This is a tough spot for the Clippers as they are playing their third game in four nights and coming off a back-to-back against Golden State. They have not covered in two straight games now, playing Washington close Saturday and losing by seven to the Warriors.
Oklahoma City is also coming off a loss, but they've had a day to recover from the hard fought game against the Nuggets. The Thunder have now scored 117 or more points in three straight games, so their offense should be fully clicking as they take on the Clippers. You should also take road teams that are outscoring opponents by more than six points per game after scoring 105 or more in three straight games. These teams are 116-71 (62%) since 1996.
The Thunder won earlier in the year at home by a score of 117-111 and that sets us up for a nice situation tonight. You want to play against any team with a line of less than three that is revenging a loss against an opponent off a home loss. This system is 217-142 (60.4%) over the last five seasons. You also want to go against home favorite revenging a home loss where an opponent scored 110+ points when playing on back-to-back days. This system is 54-24 (69.2%) over the last five seasons.
|01-22-13||Philadelphia 76ers v. Milwaukee Bucks -6.5||102-110||Win||100||11 h 40 m||Show|
3* HIGH ROLLER on Milwaukee Bucks -
Philadelphia is not a very good road team as they are just 6-14 away from home this year, scoring 90.1 ppg while allowing 95.9. They are playing a back-to-back in a tough spot, where they took on a very good San Antonio team and had the game in hand late, but fell apart to give the Spurs the victory.
Milwaukee on the other hand has been playing well lately, winning their last two games and covering both on the road. The Bucks have won five of seven with Boylan coaching them. The Bucks also went into Philadelphia earlier this year and won by nine points. This sets us up for a nice situation here tonight where you want to play against underdogs of 3.5 to 9 points who are revering an upset loss off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog. This system is 98-49 (66.7%) ATS since 1996.
|01-22-13||Michigan State v. Wisconsin -5.5||49-47||Loss||-110||10 h 36 m||Show|
3* VEGAS INSIDER on Wisconsin -
Wisconsin is going to come into this game determined to pick up the win after losing in Iowa City to the Hawkeyes on Saturday. They got off to a bad start and dug themselves a hole they couldn't get out of, but Iowa is better than most people realize this year.
Michigan State on the other hand is off an emotional win against Ohio State and it's tough for teams to get up for back-to-back games against good teams like that. Couple that with the fact that the Spartans then head to Indiana next to face the Hoosiers and you can see why their attention might wander a little more than the Badgers.
The Badgers are 114-83 ATS as a home favorite and 58-38 ATS at home after four straight games of committing 14 or less turnovers since 1997. The Badgers also get up for these big games, going 33-17 ATS at home against a team winning more than 80% of their games.
I like Wisconsin to win in a big way here tonight.
|01-21-13||Los Angeles Lakers v. Chicago Bulls||83-95||Win||100||11 h 24 m||Show|
4* NBA NO DOUBT ROUT on Chicago Bulls -
The Lakers are a good team to fade right now. They are back to full strength but this team just isn't a juggernaut like everyone thought they were going to be. LA finally got Gasol back on Thursday and lost to the Heat, then went up to Toronto and couldn't beat the Raptors. Now they travel down to face a Chicago team that has been playing well.
The Bulls have won three of four with their only loss being at home to Memphis on Saturday, but that was a tough spot off a one point win in Boston the night before. Chicago is only allowing 89.1 ppg at home this season while the Lakers are giving up 107 ppg on the road. Chicago has the ability to shut down the Lake Show, especially with their troubles getting in sync offensively. I think this one is a Bull blowout.
|01-21-13||Texas v. Oklahoma -7||67-73||Loss||-110||13 h 42 m||Show|
4* BIG 12 ATS BLOWOUT on Oklahoma -7
Texas is not a very good team as evidenced by their 8-9 record and 1-7 mark away from Austin. The Longhorns are getting outscored by 8.5 ppg on the road and are 0-4 in the conference. Texas played Kansas tough at home on Saturday and will be in a little bit of a letdown spot here today as they ended up losing that game due to a poor second half.
Oklahoma should be a hungry for a win after losing at Kansas State. That loss was the Sooners first in the conference as they had previously blew out West Virginia on the road, then Oklahoma State and Texas Tech at home. The Sooners lost twice to the Longhorns last year, so don't think they aren't join to come out blazing against their long-time rivals who are down this year. I see this one being a blowout.
|01-21-13||Brooklyn Nets v. New York Knicks UNDER 194.5||88-85||Win||100||5 h 26 m||Show|
3* NBA Total Dominator on Knicks/Nets UNDER
Two good divisional opponents playing each other on NBA TV today, I think this one has UNDER written all over it. Both teams have played solid defense in the division, the Knicks are allowing a little over 92 ppg while the Nets a little over 94.
Brooklyn has also held four of their last six opponents to under 90 points, while the Knicks have held their last two and three of four under 88. The last time these two teams met they only managed 186 points, so I think you can expect the same kind of result here today.
Play the UNDER when the total is between 190-199.5 when a team is on 2 days rest and coming off a win. This situation is 187-123 the last five seasons. You also want to take the UNDER when a team is playing their 3rd game or less in 10 days when they have a winning record playing a team with a winning record. This system is 105-61 over the last five years.
|01-21-13||Houston Rockets -6.5 v. Charlotte Bobcats||100-94||Loss||-110||4 h 56 m||Show|
4* NBA NO BRAINER on Houston Rockets -
So the Rockets have not looked good here lately. They have played six of their last seven games on the road, and the only home contest was against the LA Clippers. It's not really a surprise they have put together a seven game losing streak both straight up and against the spread with that kind schedule and I think it has opened up some value on Houston here in a good spot.
Charlotte is terrible. They are only 10-30 on the year and 5-16 at home. This team is getting outscored by an average of 8.3 ppg and they have lost six of their last seven. There isn't a better team for Houston to get back on track against than Charlotte, and they should do so in BLOWOUT fashion on Monday.
Houston is a PERFECT 8-0 ATS against teams shooting less than 43% with a defense that allows 46% or more the last three years. The Bobcats are just 4-18 ATS against teams who shoot more than 83 times per game the last two seasons and 2-12 ATS at home against teams who attempt 18 or more 3's per game.
|01-20-13||Drake +10 v. Northern Iowa||55-85||Loss||-106||5 h 12 m||Show|
3* CBB HIGH ROLLER on Drake +10
There isn't much home court advantage for Northern Iowa here today as the Bulldogs have to make a short two hour drive across the Hawkeye State to take on the Panthers and I think the double digits is going to be too much to pass up in this rivalry game.
Northern Iowa is coming off a tough loss at Creighton and will be in a little bit of a letdown situation here against Drake. They beat the Bulldogs easily both times they played last year and that typically leads to both line inflation for us and overconfidence for the players.
Drake isn't a great team by any means, but they have been playing well in winning two straight. They beat a pretty good Evansville team last time out, the same team that beat UNI up in Cedar Falls two week s ago. Drake also won at Illinois State as an 11.5 point underdog last Saturday, so this team has to be pretty confident in what they are doing, but don't think they haven't circled this game as one they want in a bad way. Both due to the double digit losses last year and because of the in-state rivalry.
|01-20-13||Los Angeles Lakers v. Toronto Raptors UNDER 204||103-108||Loss||-110||3 h 17 m||Show|
3* NBA Total Dominator on Lakers/Raptors UNDER
The LA Lakers are finally at full strength and I think that is going to help them on the defensive end of the floor. This team has held three straight opponents to under 100 points since the return of Dwight Howard, and limited the Bucks to just 35.8% shooting two games ago. The Raptors have been scoring a lot of points, going over in four straight games, but they are only averaging 97.1 ppg on the year and giving up 94.7 ppg at home.
Quite a few systems support our play here today. One says to take the UNDER on Sundays when a team has gone UNDER by 30 or more in their last three games. This system is 128-69 (65%) the last three seasons. Another says to take the UNDER on Sunday when a team hasn't played since Thursday and the total is over 200. This system is 57-24 ATS since 1996. Both of these teams shoot a lot of 3-pointers, and that puts both of them into a system that says to take the UNDER when the total is over 200 and a team attempts more than 18 3's per game. The UNDER is 127-71 the last five seasons when just one of these teams play, and both fit the bill here today.
This is an early start at 1 PM EST and these players aren't used to getting going so early. This might be particularly tough on LA, who is playing in the Eastern Time Zone and essentially starting at 10 AM accruing to their body clocks.
|01-19-13||Washington Wizards v. Los Angeles Clippers -13.5||87-94||Loss||-110||12 h 20 m||Show|
4* NBA BAILOUT ATS BLOWOUT on Clippers -
I'm siding with the Clippers here today. Washington has been playing great lately winning four of their last five and covering five straight. Last night they fought hard to come back against the Denver Nuggets, but that actually works against them Saturday as they have to pack up and fly to LA after that tough win.
The Clippers on the other hand jus keep rolling. They are coming off another double digit win on Thursday, this time by 13 points in Minnesota. That made it three straight road wins and covers after the team lost at home to Orlando last Sunday. The Clippers are going to want to put on a good show for the home fans after that embarrassing loss last weekend.
LA is averaging a 12.2 margin of victory on their home floor, scoring 104.5 ppg and giving up just 92.3. Washington on the other hand is averaging a 11 point margin of loss on the road, scoring just 84.6 ppg while giving up 95.6 ppg. Since these two teams are at the extremes in talent level, I would think each succeeds those numbers by quite a few points here tonight.
Last year these two teams played twice in February and the Clippers won by 18 points at home and 26 points on the road. I don't see them having much trouble with Washington here tonight either.
|01-19-13||SIU Edwardsville +16 v. Murray State||61-70||Win||100||22 h 45 m||Show|
4* HEAVY HITTER on SIU Edwardsville +
The Cougars are a hot team right now that have won two straight games as an underdog. Murray State played well last time out, but had failed to cover the last three times they were favored by double digits.
These teams have played Austin Peay and Eastern Kentucky this year. Murray State beat Austin Peay by three while they lost Eastern Kentucky by 12. Edwardsville on the other had beat Peay by 13 on the road and only lost to E. Kentucky by six on the road.
You want to play against home double digit favorites who average more than 74 ppg against teams scoring 63 or less ppg. This system has gone 76-40 ATS over the last five seasons. You also want to take road underdogs off an upset win when they have won less than 40% of their games on the season. These teams are 165-105 ATS over the last five years.
|01-19-13||Sacramento Kings v. Charlotte Bobcats OVER 204.5||Top||97-93||Loss||-105||13 h 23 m||Show|
5* Total NO BRAINER on Bobcats/Kings OVER
Two terrible defenses collide on Saturday night and I'm all over the OVER here. The Kings are allowing 103.3 ppg while the Bobcats are giving up 103.5 ppg. Opponents are shooting 45.8% against Sacramento and 46.1% against Charlotte (including 39% from behind the arc).
The Bobcats have and some trouble scoring lately and that had caused the UNDER to hit in four straight games, but they broke out of their fun last night in Orlando to put up 106 points. The Kings had gone OVER in six straight games before siding with the UNDER in their last two, but last night they faced a tough Memphis team so it's easy to see why they struggled to score. That only led to some value here tonight with this total being set lower than it should be.
The Kings are 24-14 OVER in all games this year, but 11-3 OVER when they are playing a team that forces 14 or fewer turnovers per game. A system that supports our play says that when the total is between 200-209.5 take the OVER when the road team has gone over the total by a combined 48 points or more in their previous 10 games. This system is 32-10 over the past five seasons.
|01-19-13||Coll Of Charleston +10 v. Davidson||68-77||Win||101||20 h 13 m||Show|
3* on College of Charleston +
College of Charleston is getting some value here since they are off an upset loss as a favorite while Davidson is off a 32 point win over the Citadel, but the prior game Davidson had also lost the Georgia Southern on the road, except as a 13 point favorite and it was by 13 instead of only four.
Against common opponents both teams are 3-1, the Wildcats winning by 13 ppg while the Cougars are winning by 8 ppg. Davidson might be the better team, but this is too many points for them to be laying against a decent team who lost last time out probably due to looking ahead to this contest.
A great system supports our play today that says to take double digit underdogs off an upset loss as a favorite playing on only a day's rest. These teams are 146-92 ATS since 1997.
|01-19-13||Ball State v. Central Michigan -5.5||57-71||Win||100||20 h 13 m||Show|
3* on Central Michigan -
The Chippewas got smoked last year in both games against Ball State, so I think this team is going to come ready to play on Saturday. Central Michigan does a good job of getting to the line, shooting seven more free throws per game at home than their opponents give up, while the Cardinals are allowing opponents to shoot three more free throws per game than their average.
Ball State is 1-8 ATS off a road loss the last two years and 40-61 ATS after scoring 65 points or less in two straight games. Central Michigan has been playing pretty solid this year, covering in four of their last five and eight of 10. they have played tough against some good teams and should take advantage of a soft opponent here today.
|01-19-13||Louisiana-Lafayette +17.5 v. Middle Tenn. St.||60-82||Loss||-106||20 h 44 m||Show|
3* on Louisiana-Lafayette +
I'm going to ride Louisiana-Lafayette this afternoon as they look to revenge an early season loss at home to Middle Tennessee State. The Blue Raiders have struggled to put teams away lately. Before they covered last time out against Arkansas-Little Rock they had lost four in a row at the pay window. That was their first double digit win of 2013 and it was over the leader of the East division of the Sun Belt, so it was pretty big for them, putting them into a letdown spot for today.
A couple of systems help support our play today. Play against double digit favorites off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival when playing an opponent off a conference loss by double digits. This system is 72-36 ATS the last five years. You also want to take double digit underdogs with a losing record who are revering a home loss against an opponent. This situation is 480-346 ATS the last five years.
|01-19-13||South Dakota +11.5 v. Oakland||97-78||Win||100||19 h 15 m||Show|
4* ODDS MAKERS ERROR on South Dakota +
I went against Oakland last time out when they played UMKC and I'm going to continue to do so until the odds makers stop overvaluing them. These two have six games against common opponents and both are 3-3, but Oakland is winning by 3.5 ppg compared to 2.5 ppg for South Dakota.
The Golden Grizzlies are allowing 49.2% from the field while South Dakota is an above average shooting team. Both of these teams get to the free throw line, but Oakland fouls more than usual while the Coyotes rarely put the opposition on the line. This is a lot of points and I'll gladly take them today.
A nice system supports our play today that say to fade double digit favorites off a no-cover as a win as a favorite when that team has won between 40-50% of their games. This situation is 33-12 ATS since 1997. If the team they are playing has a losing record that number jumps to 25-8 ATS.
|01-19-13||Arkansas-Little Rock +8 v. Western Kentucky||59-54||Win||100||19 h 13 m||Show|
3* on Arkansas Little-Rock +
Arkansas Little-Rock had been playing well until getting embarrassed last time out against Middle Tennessee State while Western Kentucky on the other hand was struggling, losing both straight up and against the spread in three straight games before blowing out Lafayette by 23 points. This has led to some value on the Trojans here today.
Arkansas LR already won earlier today at home as a two point underdog so they know they can pull off the upset again today. Western Kentucky is 5-0 against common opponents and wining by 11 ppg, but Ark-Little Rock is 4-2 themselves and winning by 7 ppg. The value here is with the underdog so take the points.
Arkansas Little-Rock is 16-7 ATS when playing a team with a winning record the last two years and 14-5 ATS against teams that allow 42% or less. Plus, they are 6-0 ATS after a blowout loss by 20 points or more the last three years and 11-2 ATS after scoring 60 or less points in their last game.
|01-19-13||St Bonaventure +12 v. Temple||81-78||Win||100||14 h 14 m||Show|
3* on St. Bonaventure +
The Bonnies haven't played good lately, losing six straight games. The last time out they lost to Xavier at home by two as a 2.5 point favorite, but that doesn't look bad when you see Temple lost by five at Xavier a week ago. Against common opponents Temple is +0.5 ppg while the Bonnies are -4.5. Not great, but not good enough to justify this double digit spread.
Temple beat St. Bonaventure by six on the road last year, so you can bet the Bonnies will be out for revenge here today. The Owls are only shooting 40.6% and 30% from behind the 3-point line. You don't cover too many big spreads if you can't shoot at a high rate.
You want to play against double digit favorites off a road win by 3 points or less when they have a winning record and are playing a team with a losing one. This system is 62-31 over the last three seasons. You also want to take road double digit dogs off an upset loss against a conference rival against an opponent off a conference win. This spot is 75-40 ATS the last five years.
|01-18-13||Fairfield +6 v. Iona||73-84||Loss||-110||12 h 55 m||Show|
3* ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Fairfield +
Fairfield has struggled in losing three games in a row, and that has created some value with them here tonight. They haven't lost any of those games by more than five points, so they are playing their opponents tough and doing so with a stifling defense that gives up just 61.6 ppg.
Iona on the other hand has won five in a row, but they haven't lived up to the expectations in covering only once in their last four games. These two teams are fairly evenly matched, and the 5.5 points is a little too much of a home court advantage. I'll take the underdog here tonight.
A couple of systems support our play here tonight that says to take teams who allow 63 or less PPG against teams allowing more than 74 after a loss by six points or less. This situation is 60-28 ATS the past five seasons. You also want to take road underdogs off an upset loss to a conference rival at home against an opponent off a home win. These teams are 84-50 ATS the last five years.
|01-18-13||Sacramento Kings +9.5 v. Memphis Grizzlies||69-85||Loss||-110||10 h 44 m||Show|
4* HEAVY HITTER on Sacramento Kings +
This is a tough spot for the Memphis Grizzlies. They have played a couple of tough games in a row over the past week wight eh Spurs, Mavs, Clippers, and Spurs again. They beat San Antonio by three the first time around, but then lost the next three and all by more than 20 points. Sure, they were playing good teams but getting beat that badly shakes one's confidence. Even with a short break tonight, Memphis then has to play Chicago, Indiana, and Brooklyn in their next three games coming up, setting this team up for both a letdown and a look ahead.
The Kings might not be very good, but they have won two straight. Of course it was against Cleveland and Washington so it was to be expected. Sacramento has now lost six straight against the spread, so they haven't exactly been playing well either, but this is a young team that will be motivated by just winning the last two games.
Memphis isn't a team that blows out their opponents, winning by an average of less than five at home. The Kings have lost by less than 10 ppg on the road this year, so I see a lot of value in taking the points here tonight.
A couple of situations support our play here that say to fade home teams after scoring 85 points or less in three straight games. This situation is 163-103 (61.3%) since 1996. You also want to take teams winning less than 40% of their games after being beaten by 18+ points combined against the spread in their last three games when hey are double digit underdogs. These teams are 44-18 ATS the last five seasons.
|01-17-13||Miami Heat v. Los Angeles Lakers -2.5||99-90||Loss||-102||15 h 32 m||Show|
3* NBA MAIN EVENT on Lakers -
The LA Lakers are starting to look like themselves all of a sudden. Sure, their lsat two opponents were the Cavs and the Bucks, not exactly top tier teams. When a team beats a team they should you have to look at by how many and the Lakers won both in impressive fashion. It's no surprise that getting Dwight Howard back gave this team a boost, and now word is Pau Gasol is going to play tonight against the Heat. Since LA is just 5-8 without Gasol this year, I think he'll give them a real boost down low, especially since Miami lacks front court depth behind Chris Bosh.
Miami won in impressive fashion at Golden State last night, but the team has been struggling against top tier teams. They lost at Utah, at Portland, at Indiana, and at home against Chicago to start the 2013 year. Some would argue that the Lakers aren't a top tier team with a sub. 500 record, but they have top tier talent that will go all out on a Thursday night TNT game. The Heat are just 4-12 ATS after playing as a road favorite.
|01-17-13||Gonzaga v. Portland +16.5||71-49||Loss||-106||14 h 56 m||Show|
4* PUBLIC BLOOD BATH on Portland +
I know a lot of people will see Gonzaga's 16-1 record playing a Portland team that is sub. 500 and scoff, but this is a great situation for Portland. First off, you know they are going to be up for this game since they are playing the Zags, one of the perennial league favorites. Plus, they actually played well against them last year, losing by only 12 points at home when Gonzaga was a 15-point favorite. They actually led at half by a score of 29-25.
However, don't think that will mean Gonzaga gets up for this game the Pilots. They are coming off a big win over St. Mary's last Thursday night and even though they had a long rest, I think that game will have taken a lot out of them. Plus, this team plays on Saturday at Butler in a game they have to be looking forward to.
Portland isn't a threat to win the West Coast, but they went on the road in all three games to open up conference play and did sneak out a victory over Loyola-Marymount as a 5.5 underdog, and were at least in the other two games. I think the win last time out boosted their confidence and puts them in a solid position to play the Zags tough tonight.
A solid system supports our play that says to play against double digit favorites after six or more straight wins when they are on 5 or 6 days rest. This system has gone 159-104 (60.5%) since 1997. Gonzaga is all 0-6 ATS on the road after three straight West Coast games the last two seasons and 17-32 ATS after scoring 80 or more in a win over a conference rival.
|01-17-13||Georgia Tech +16.5 v. Duke||57-73||Win||100||13 h 57 m||Show|
3* on Georgia Tech +
Duke is coming off their first loss of the season, so the public will look at that and think they are motivated to win big in their next game. However, teams coming off of a loss to break a double digit win streak in BCS conferences are just 35-43 ATS the next time out. If they are favored that record drops to 27-36 ATS, and if they are favored by double digits it's 12-18 (40%).
Georgia Tech has gotten off to a rough start in ACC play, losing three in a row, including by 13 to Miami, 13 at NC State, and five at home to Virginia. The Yellow Jackets aren't a great team, but when you are getting double digits you don't have to be great to cover.
A couple of systems support our play that say to take double digit road underdogs after they were beaten by 30 ore more points against the spread the last three games, in January. These teams are 109-58 ATS (65.3%) since 1997.
|01-17-13||Oregon State +14.5 v. UCLA||64-74||Win||100||13 h 56 m||Show|
3* on Oregon State +
This is a look ahead spot for UCLA as they will face Oregon on Saturday and Arizona next Thursday, and those are the two teams the Bruins have to worry about in the Pac-12, not the 10-6 Beavers who have lost their first three conference games by double digits.
I like how these teams matchup too. Oregon State main problem in the Pac-12 has been rebounding, but the Bruins aren't necessarily a good rebounding team. Both teams rarely foul, but both do a good job of drawing fouls. Plus, both squads play pretty solid on the defensive end of the floor, so this game should be somewhat low scoring and not a shootout.
I think the odds makers have over-adjusted this line a bit, since the Bruins haven't beat anyone by more than 13 points in a month and have been playing close games even against teams they should have beat easily.
A solid system supporting our play says to play against double digit favorites after nine or more straight wins. This system is 196-119 (62.2%) over the last five years. You also want to play on road underdogs off two straight double digit home losses when playing a team with two straight conference wins. This situation is 41-12 (77.4%) since 1997.
|01-17-13||Utah State +5 v. New Mexico State||51-64||Loss||-110||13 h 55 m||Show|
4* HIGH ROLLER on Utah State +
I normally don't love teams that have played weak schedules, but Utah State has gone 14-1 on the year, so at least they have taken care of business. Plus, they are 5-0 in the conference and winning by 10 ppg, while New Mexico State is just 4-2 in conference play, having won by an average of only .5. Against common opponents both teams are 4-0, but Utah State's margin of victory is 11 to New Mexico State's 8.
Plus, you have to think Utah State wants some revenge for what happened to them last year. Both games in this matchup were double digit losses, the first was on the road by 20 points and the second was at home by 11.
Sure, Utah State has struggled at the pay window lately, winning their last three games at home easily but not covering double digit point spreads. I think this team was coasting until they faced New Mexico State in their first real WAC test, so I'll gladly take the points here tonight.
A solid system we like says to play against home favorites of 3.5-9.5 points that make four or less three point shots per game. This system has gone 96-52 (64.9%) over the last five years.
|01-17-13||Louisiana-Monroe +11 v. South Alabama||56-71||Loss||-106||12 h 56 m||Show|
3* on Louisiana-Monroe +
I think you are going to see the UL-Monroe Warhawks get some payback over South Alabama here tonight. Nobody likes this team because they have a terrible record and have averaged losing by double digits, but they have played a tough schedule against teams like Florida State and UAB. This team has been playing better lately and has covered six of their last seven games.
South Alabama looks better than they are and this line reflects too much of what the score was in the first game and not so much what really happened. The Jaguars won 77-70, but they shot 59.1% in that game and reached the foul line 16 more times than the Warhawks. The foul situation is going to even itself out a little more this time.
LA-Monroe had a blip around the turn of the year when they allowed North Texas, S. Alabama, and Florida Atlantic to shoot lights out against them but they have tightened up their defense the last two games, and played solid on that end of the floor prior to the UAB game, so it was an aberration.
South Alabama also pulled one out of a hat last time in shooting so well. They have shot 27.4%, 37%, 40.5%, and 28.1% in the four other games they have played since Christmas.
A solid system supports our play that says to take double digit underdogs revering a home loss v. an opponent. This system has gone 758-549 ATS over the last five seasons. We can tighten it up when that underdog is off two straight conference losses and the system is 248-162 ATS (60.5%).
|01-17-13||UMKC +13 v. Oakland||68-81||Push||0||11 h 54 m||Show|
4* HEAVY HITTER on UMKC + over Oakland
It's hard to believe that a 7-12 Oakland team is laying this many points, even if UMKC is only 5-13 on the year and 3-6 on the road. Last year they were favored by 14.5 in this spot and only managed to win by 13, and that team was a little better than this year's edition. Plus, Oakland is only 4-14 ATS as a home double digit favorite since 1997.
What is scaring bettors off is how Oakland went into Kansas City last February and put a 33 point beating down on the Kangaroos. However, I think that will serve as motivation here tonight. They shot 61.1% in that game and even shot 52% the previous game against Utah Valley State. This team has some confidence and should do well against an Oakland squad allowing opponents to hit 49.3% of their shots on the season.
UMKC had lost nine in a row before upsetting South Dakota as an 8-point underdog last time out, but that sets us up in a nice spot. A solid system says to take road underdogs who are off an upset win as an underdog when they have won less than 40% of their games on the season. This situation has gone 162-103 (61.1%) over the last five years. However, If you tighten the system up to double digit road underdogs off an upset win as a road underdog this system goes to 56-25 (69.1%).
|01-16-13||Cleveland Cavaliers +7 v. Portland Trail Blazers||Top||93-88||Win||100||24 h 16 m||Show|
5* NBA NO LIMIT on Cleveland Cavs +
Cleveland has had a tough little road trip but I think they will play tough against Portland on Wednesday night. We are getting some value here because Cleveland has lost the first three games of their West Coast swing, but the Cavs have already faced the Blazers once this season and lost by a single point at home back on December 1st.
The trouble with Portland is that they are playing on back-to-back nights, but they haven't really played well lately either. The Blazers lost at Golden State and at home to the Thunder the last two games. As I write this they are playing the Nuggets tough, but that game is being played in Denver. Tonight they will have to travel back to Portland, crossing nearly 1,200 miles and a time zone to play a bad team on Wednesday night.
So, not only is the rest situation not working in Portland's favor, but they are also going to be in a letdown spot. Portland and Denver are battling it out for the second spot behind Oklahoma City in the Northwest Division and the Blazers currently sit only a half game up on Utah for the 8th and final playoff spot. They will have spent everything they have trying to win in Denver to get an edge in the standings and in any tiebreaker situation late in the year. Playing a non-conference team that is 9-31 isn't going to be high priority after that.
Take the points with the Cavs tonight as heach coach Terry Stotts is just 66-93 ATS against teams with a losing record.
|01-16-13||Seton Hall +9 v. Marquette||62-69||Win||100||10 h 26 m||Show|
3* on Seton Hall +
Marquette has looked good to start Big East Play and that has created some value in this line here tonight. The Golden Eagles have won five straight with wins over UConn, Georgetown, and at Pitt in conference play. However, I think they will have their hands full tonight trying to beat the Pirates by double digits.
Seton Hall has struggled in losing their last three Big East games, but those came at Notre Dame, v. Louisville, and the disappointing loss at home to Providence. This team should be ready to bounce back from that upset loss with a strong showing against an over-rated Marquette squad.
The Pirates shoot 47.6% from the floor on the road and allow just 40.8% so they should be able to hang with a Marquette team that shoots 46.7% and allows 40.6%. Both teams do a good job of getting to the foul line, both are capable on the glass, and neither has a real advantage creating turnovers. These two teams are a lot closer in skill than the oddsmakers think, so I'll gladly take the big number.
A solid system backing our play says to play against teams off two straight conference wins against teams off consecutive double digit losses at home. This system is 52-22 (70.3%) since 1997.
|01-16-13||Denver Nuggets v. Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5||97-117||Win||100||10 h 34 m||Show|
4* HEAVY HITTER on Oklahoma City Thunder -
Denver is coming off a tough divisional game last night in which they took the Portland Trailblazers to overtime before coming out on top. Now they have to take to the road to take on the best team in the West, and I think this number is a little short of what I expected since this will be the Nuggets third game in four nights.
Denver is hot right now winning six in a row, but the Nuggets are just 9-14 on the road this year, losing by 1.5 ppg. The Thunder on the other hand are 18-3 at home, winning by more than 11 ppg.
Oklahoma City has won four in a row, the last three of which came on the road. They have this game at home before kicking off a six game road trip so they know they need a good showing before the tough stretch ahead.
|01-16-13||New Orleans Hornets v. Boston Celtics -7||90-78||Loss||-110||10 h 33 m||Show|
3* on Boston Celtics -
The Hornets have been an awful 6-13 on the road this year, losing by 4 ppg while Boston is 13-6 at home winning by 4.5 ppg. The public is jumping on this New Orleans team now that they have won five of their last six games both straight up and against the spread, but Boston is just as hot since Avery Bradley returned to the lineup, winning their last six straight up and five of those at the pay window.
New Orleans is coming off a nice win last night in Philadelphia, but this will be their third game in four nights. The Celtics on the other hand have only played once since last Friday, so the veterans have had plenty of time to get their legs back under them. These two teams played at the beginning of the season last year, and New Orleans won at home by 19. Don't think for a second this Celtic group doesn't remember that and they will be out to prove a point tonight.
|01-16-13||Georgia +13.5 v. Missouri||62-79||Loss||-106||9 h 27 m||Show|
3* on Georgia +
The Bulldogs have not looked good their last two times out and that has given us some value with them here tonight. Georgia has lost two straight against the spread after suffering a 33 point loss at Florida and a double digit loss at home as a 7.5 point favorite over Mississippi State. I expect them to rebound here tonight against a Missouri team coming off a disappointing loss of their own at Ole Miss in which they only managed to score 49 points.
This is a solid matchup for Georgia as both teams play well on the defensive side of the floor, so with a lower scoring game getting this many points is a gift. Georgia does a good job of getting to the line this year shooting three more free throws per game than their opponents normally allow. The Bulldogs have also been solid on the glass, which should negate the Tigers advantage this year with their offensive rebounding.
Georgia is 6-0 ATS on the road after an upset loss as a favorite the last three years while Missouri is 6-17 ATS after scoring 55 points or less since 1997.
|01-16-13||South Carolina +10 v. LSU||82-73||Win||100||9 h 27 m||Show|
3* on South Carolina +
South Carolina got off to a rough start to the year, but had won five games in a row entering SEC play. Their first game at Mississippi State they only lost by two, covering the spread. They followed that up with an upset loss at home to Auburn due to the fact they allowed the Tigers to shoot 58.5%.
LSU hasn't been shooting well so I don't think they will be able to take advantage of the Gamecocks defensive struggles. They shot 37.3% v. Auburn and 32.3% at Florida.
LSU went on the road and pulled the upset win over the Gamecocks last year, so this South Carolina team is out for a sort of double revenge. They were favored in their loss to Auburn, and last year in this matchup. This team will come out motivated and should keep it within single digits.
|01-16-13||Brooklyn Nets v. Atlanta Hawks -4||95-109||Win||100||9 h 3 m||Show|
3* on Atlanta Hawks -
Atlanta was embarrassed in Chicago the other night, only putting up 58 points in the 39 point loss. Now Atlanta has dropped six of their last seven both straight up and at the pay window, and it has given us some value with this team tonight.
Brooklyn is coming off a tough divisional game against the Raptors last night so they are on short rest playing their third game in four nights. They have won nine of 10 since PJ took over the reigns, but that has just inflated their value here tonight. The Hawks are 12-6 at home while the Nets are 8-8 on the road. The odds makers are over-adjusting on this one so take advantage.
|01-16-13||Fordham +14 v. Charlotte U||68-74||Win||100||9 h 57 m||Show|
3* on Fordham +
Fordham isn't a good team but they check into this game after a pair of covers. They beat Duquense and played a decent UMass team tough at home, covering both games. Charlotte doesn't force a lot of turnovers and the Rams do a good job on the offensive glass, so they should get plenty of opportunities to score tonight.
Charlotte is also playing well, having beat three straight teams by eight or more points since their loss to Florida State back on 12/22. However, a large favorite who has covered two straight is a good fade situation. A solid system backs our play here that says to fade double digit favorites who have covered two straight when they have won 80% or more of their games on the year, facing a team with a losing record. This play has gone 76-39 (66.1%) over the last five seasons.
I'll take the double digits.
|01-16-13||Chicago Bulls -3 v. Toronto Raptors||Top||107-105||Loss||-110||21 h 16 m||Show|
5* NBA NO BRAINER on Chicago Bulls -
The Toronto Raptors are in a tough spot on Wednesday night as they will be flying from Brooklyn back home to face the Chicago Bulls. Toronto not only has to fly back home, but they are coming off a hard fought divisional game against the Nets.
The Bulls are a tough matchup for Toronto because they do a good job of getting to the line, and they convert 79% of their free throw attempts. Toronto allows their opponents who average only 22 attempts per game to get to the line 27 times a contest against them, so expect Chicago to pile on some easy points Wednesday.
Chicago's head coach Tom Thibodeau called out his players before the Atlanta game, saying their weren't putting for the effort the liked on defense. What did the Bulls do? They held Atlanta to just 58 points on Monday. If you don't think that carries over think again. Teams that have held opponents to less than 65 points are 52-39 ATS the following game. Toronto even played Chicago in this situation last March and Chicago went into Toronto and won by 12 points as 7.5 point favorite, holding Toronto to just 82 points.
Thibodeau is 25-10 ATS on the road after a home win in Chicago and the Bulls are 22-11 ATS as a road favorite the last two years. I'll take Chicago as I think they win big up north.
|01-16-13||Providence +7.5 v. Georgetown||65-74||Loss||-105||8 h 28 m||Show|
3* on Providence +
Providence has played a tough schedule to start the Big East season, having to go to Louisville and Seton Hall while hosting Syracuse and DePaul. It's no surprise they have won only one of those games, but it does raise an eyebrow the game came last time out against Seton Hall and not at home against DePaul. However, finally ending the five game losing streak and winning a conference game should give them some confidence tonight against the Hoyas.
Georgetown has a big win back in early December over Texas, but the Longhorns have disappointed this year. They did play tough at Marquette but got embarrassed by 28 at home against Pitt. They haven't played as tough of a schedule as the Friars, which is why their stats look a little better.
I wouldn't expect this game to be very high scoring as Georgetown allows just 55.4 ppg while Providence gives up 62.2. Neither team excels offensively, but the Friars do have a little more firepower on that end of the floor than the Hoyas do. With points at a premium tonight, I'll take a decent size underdog to win.
|01-15-13||Milwaukee Bucks v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 212.5||88-104||Win||100||14 h 15 m||Show|
4* Total NO BRAINER on Bucks/Lakers UNDER 212.5
The Lakers have had some high totals recently and for good reason as they were both scoring and giving up over 100 points per game. Dwight Howard returned against the Cavs on Sunday though and LA held Cleveland to just 93 points. I think that trend continues here tonight as they have held opponents to just 43.7% shooting at home, including 32.1% from 3-point range.
Milwaukee hasn't scored as well on the road, but interestingly enough they have played better defense than at home, giving up just 95.9 ppg outside of Milwaukee. The Bucks have seen 3 of the four totals go OVER since Skiles was fired, but none of those were set anywhere near as high as tonight's. Lots of value in the UNDER here and I'll take it.
A great system supports our play that says to take the UNDER when one team is off a home blowout win of 20 points or more and their opponent is off a road win of 10 or more. This system has gone 92-46 (66.7%) for the UNDER since 1996. Another situation that applies says to take the UNDER when a team is on the road with a total of 210 or more and they are coming off an upset win as a double digit underdog. These teams are 47-16 (74.6%) for the UNDER since 1996.
|01-15-13||Indiana Pacers -7.5 v. Charlotte Bobcats||Top||103-76||Win||100||13 h 35 m||Show|
5* NO LIMIT on Indiana Pacers -
Indiana had been rolling along, winning four in a row and 10 of their last 12 before a loss in Brooklyn on Sunday. They are going to want to right the ship tonight against the Bobcats, a team they just beat on Saturday night at home by eight points. There is plenty of value in this one as well since Indiana hasn't covered their last four times out.
The Bobcats are going to have a tough time putting up points since they only average 95.5 ppg and Indiana is holding their foes to just 89.3 not he year. Indiana on the other hand should be able to get things going as the Bobcats allow 103.6 ppg.
Back in early November Indiana traveled to Charlotte and lost by a single point. You can bet that point has been hammered home to them and they will come out hungry from the opening tip, and pull away fast. Indiana needs to take advantage of soft spots in their schedule to make up for their slow start, and they do that tonight.
The Bobcats are 17-34 ATS when playing a team with a winning record the last two seasons and 14-28 ATS at a home underdog.
|01-15-13||Notre Dame -6 v. St. Johns||63-67||Loss||-110||13 h 3 m||Show|
3* HEAVY HITTER on Notre Dame -
The Irish have to come into this game with a chip on their shoulders after losing at home to UConn on Saturday. The loss was only Notre Dame's second of the season so you can bet they didn't like how that game tasted. Plus, ND will be out for revenge against St. John's here tonight after dropping their last two in New York, including a 3-point defeat last year as 6.5 point favorites.
Notre Dame is solid on both end's of the floor. They are scoring 75.6 ppg against teams allowing 66.3 and giving up just 61.1 against teams who normally put up 68.4.
Both teams have played decent schedules, but Notre Dame has wins over BYU, Kentucky, and Purdue on their resume while nothing stands out to me for St. John's.
The Red Storm have lost two in a row at home, first to Rutgers as 3.5 point favorites and then Saturday Georgetown took it to them by 16 points. St. John's is 39-59 ATS at home after a loss since 1997 and 2-9 ATS after two straight games of scoring 65 points or less the last two years.
I'm going with the Irish tonight.
|01-14-13||Cleveland Cavaliers v. Sacramento Kings OVER 203.5||Top||118-124||Win||100||13 h 57 m||Show|
5* NBA Total Dominator on Kings/Cavs OVER
Sacramento's defense has been terrible all year long, but the last four games it's been something special. All four opponents have scored 113 or more points against them and this team hasn't let a team score under 94 points since way back on December 8th. It's no surprise that the Kings have gone OVER in five straight and 10 of their last 11 and I don't think they will have a problem eclipsing this number tonight either.
Cleveland isn't a great offensive team, but they have their own struggles on the defensive side of the ball. On the road they are giving up 100.4 ppg on 47.9% shooting against teams scoring just 96.5 on 44.4%.
This team has allowed 97 or more points in eight of their last nine games.
The Kings are 39-21 OVER when the total is between 200-210 the last three seasons and 14-6 OVER at home this year. Sacramento is 23-11 OVER in non-confernece games the last two years and 15-7 OVER after a loss this year. Finally, since 1996 the Kings are 34-18 OVER at home when playing a team with a winning percentage 25% or lower.
All sign point to a lot of scoring tonight, so take the OVER.
|01-14-13||Elon +1.5 v. Western Carolina||80-67||Win||100||10 h 52 m||Show|
3* HEAVY HITTER on Elon +1.5
Elon had been playing solid basketball to end the 2012 calendar year but have gotten off to a slow start in 2013, losing two straight. However, this is a team that played Duke tough for awhile and even beat South Carolina on the road by 12 points as a 7.5 point underdog.
The Catamounts have won three in a row which is important because it sets them up for a spot they have not done well in in the past. West Caroina is just 35-54 ATS when coming off a win against a conference rival and 14-29 ATS at home after a win since 1997.
This is a short trip for the Phoenix so I don't think there is much in the way of home court advantage for West Carolina tonight. Elon is the better team and should pull off the upset in what is an important game in Southern Conference action.
|01-13-13||Oklahoma City Thunder v. Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 199.5||87-83||Win||100||13 h 42 m||Show|
3* NBA Total Dominator on Thunder/Blazers UNDER
This is a big game for both teams as Portland is trying to establish themselves as a legitimate playoff contender after winning four of their last five and six of their last eight. Now they host a division rival that is the best team in the West.
Oklahoma City hasn't been a slouch on the road, but their shooting dips from 47.9% at home to 46.3% on the road, but behind the arc it goes from 39.6% down to 34.2%. Portland is a team that allows only 31.2% 3-point shooting at home, so the Thunder are not going to be able to get as many trips where they get three points instead of two here today.
Earlier this year the odds makers set a total for 205 in Oklahoma City and the two teams played to 198 points. Now they have dropped the number quite a bit and I still don't think it's enough.
A couple of systems that support our pick say to play the UNDER in divisional games when the total is between 190 and 200 when one team is off two straight covers as a favorite. This system is 50-21 (70.4%) the last five seasons. Another one is to play the UNDER with any team that outscores their opponents by 9+ ppg when hey are coming off a blowout win by 15 points or more. This situation is 70-41 (63.1%) for the UNDER the last five years.
|01-13-13||Arizona St +9.5 v. Oregon||65-68||Win||100||13 h 37 m||Show|
4* BAILOUT ATS BLOWOUT on Arizona State +
Oregon knocked off Arizona in what was a great game Thursday night and I think that has set them up for a bit of a letdown tonight. The Wildcat win is fresh in the public's mind so the odds makers had to adjust this line by a point or so to compensate, plus these players have to be feeling pretty a little over-confident after knocking off one of the last remaining unbeatens.
Arizona State on the other hand is a solid basketball team that will give the Ducks a run for their money. They have won six in a row and covered all but one of those games. The Sun Devils went up to Oregon State on Thursday and beat the Beavers as five point underdogs, and I think they will surprise Oregon tonight as well.
Last year Oregon won as an underdog at Arizona State by 9 points. Sun Devils are going to be out for a little payback here today.
|01-12-13||San Francisco +14 v. Saint Marys CA||Top||72-78||Win||100||25 h 22 m||Show|
5* BAILOUT ATS BLOWOUT on San Francisco +
The St. Mary's Gaels are in a letdown spot here today as they take on the 7-9 Dons of San Francisco. On Thursday night the Gaels went up to Gonzaga and played the Zags tough, losing by only five points. Not only will they have trouble getting up for the Dons after such an emotional win, the next game on the schedule sees them take on another strong team in BYU.
San Francisco is better than their record indicates. Sure, they have lost three in a row, but two of those games they covered against tough teams in BYU and at Santa Clara. the Dons also have covers against Ole Miss and St. John's, so they have played teams tough that have more talent than them.
St. Mary's has put up impressive numbers by beating up cupcakes this year. Gonzaga was their first real test and while they played well, they will probably think things go back to normal as they get a sub. 500 team on Saturday. Too bad for them the Dons will come ready to play and keep this one tight.
Solid system that says to take double digit underdogs off an upset loss as a favorite on one day or less of rest. These teams have gone 137-86 (61.4%) since 1997.
|01-12-13||Murray State v. Austin Peay St +10.5||71-68||Win||100||23 h 53 m||Show|
3* MONEY MAKER on Austin Peay +
There is no doubt who the better team here is as Murray State comes in at 11-4 and Austin Peay at 5-12, but there is plenty of value in the home dog on Saturday. Murray State is coming off a tough loss by 12 points at home to E Kentucky, a team they were favored by nine points over. They have now failed to cover in four of their last five games as the Racers are consistently over-valued by odds makers.
Austin Peay had lost either in a row before Wednesday's win over Morehead State, but their previous three losses had been by a total of two points. They are playing competitive and should be able to hang with a Murray State team that has to be looking past a team they beat by double digits twice last year.
|01-12-13||Phoenix Suns v. Chicago Bulls -8.5||97-81||Loss||-105||12 h 55 m||Show|
4* NO DOUBT ROUT on Chicago Bulls -
The Suns are a dreadful 2-17 on the road this year losing by 11.5 ppg so I don't think this number is quite high enough. Last night Phoenix played the Brooklyn Nets tough in the first half and then were absolutely blown out in the 2nd, losing the game by 20. Now they have to travel to Chicago for a quick turnaround against a Bulls team that took it to New York last night.
Both of these teams are playing their third game in four nights, but for Phoenix it will actually be their fourth in five. Plus this is the last game of a four game road trip that has not gone very well, so I imagine the players will be anxious to get back home.
The Bulls have now won four of their last five games. The Bulls beat the Suns by six earlier in the year in Phoenix, so I see another blowout on the horizon tonight as they host the Suns. Phoenix is 19-32 ATS when revenging a loss to an opponent the last two seasons and Chicago is 22-9 ATS playing their 3rd game in four days.
|01-12-13||Utah Jazz v. Detroit Pistons -2||90-87||Loss||-107||11 h 23 m||Show|
3* HEAVY HITTER on Detroit Pistons -
Both of these teams are off back-to-backs, but a couple of things point in the Pistons favor here today. The first is that they blew Milwaukee out 103-87 so they didn't have to bring the intensity late. Utah was leading or competitive for most of the game with the Hawks so they spent a little more energy in last night's game.
The other is that Detroit had four days off coming into the game and will be playing only their fourth game of 2013, so they have had plenty of rest. Utah will be playing their 7th game since the turn of the year and third in four nights.
The Jazz are a decent team but they are terrible on the road, going just 8-15 and being outscored by 5+ ppg. Hard to believe they are only getting tow points against a Detroit team that is beating opponents by 3.4 ppg at home and has now won seven of nine and give of their last six games.
The Pistons are 16-5 ATS at home against teams who make 36% or more of their three point shot attempts. The Jazz are 22-34 ATS on the road and 8-22 ATS after two or more non-conference games the past three seasons.
|01-12-13||Charlotte Bobcats v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 185.5||88-96||Win||100||11 h 54 m||Show|
4* NBA Total NO BRAINER on Bobcats/Pacers UNDER
What we have here is a Charlotte team that is scoring just 93 ppg on the road and a Pacers team allowing 86.6 ppg at home. I'm having trouble discerning just where the Bobcats are going to get their points from as their 42.4% shooting takes on a defense that allows 40.3% on their home floor. Plus, on no rest they won't have time to make any adjustments from their 78 point showing last night in Toronto.
Indiana's defense has been downright sick, allowing 83 points or less in five of their last six, including holding Miami to 77 and New York to 76. Those are two teams that put up their share of points, and not even they could score against the Pacers.
Charlotte is so bad because their defense is terrible, particularly against the 3-point shot. The good news is that Indiana doesn't shoot a lot of outside shots so will get the majority of their points two at a time. The Pacers have scored less than 90 points in five of their last six games.
Indiana is 13-3 UNDER after a combined score of 175 points or less their last four games since 1996 and the Pacers are 34-20 UNDER against teams allowing their opponents to make more than 46% of their shots the last three years. Another system supporting our play says to take the UNDER when you have a team allowing 103+ ppg after a blowout loss of 20 points or more. The UNDER is 220-143 (60.6%) in this situation dating back to 1996.
|01-12-13||IUPU Ft Wayne +12 v. South Dakota State||57-83||Loss||-106||19 h 23 m||Show|
3* HIGH ROLLER on IUPU-Ft Wayne +
You might look at Wayne's 8-10 record and scoff, but this team has actually outscored their opponents by 2 ppg on the year so they are better than you think. They have played pretty well as the calendar turned to 2013 as well, beating Navy by five and crushing Nebraska-Omaha by 18 before losing as a 15 point underdog to North Dakota State by 12.
South Dakota State has struggled a little bit the last two times out, losing outright as an 11 point favorite to their in-state rivals in South Dakota, then not covering as an 8 point favorite over Oakland. Last year South Dakota State went into Fort Wayne and won by 31 points, that has created a little bit of value for us here tonight.
A system that supports our play here today says to take road underdogs of 10+ points who are coming off a double digit blowout loss when the other team is coming off a high scoring game of 155 points or more. These teams are 175-114 (60.6%) over the last five seasons.
|01-12-13||Illinois-Chicago +6 v. Wisc-Green Bay||47-53||Push||0||18 h 23 m||Show|
4* HEAVY HITTER on Illinois-Chicago +
The Flames are the better team so I'll gladly take them getting so many points here today. Illinois-Chicago is 10-6 on the season and beating teams by 4.7 ppg. They are winning with their defense, allowing opponents to shoot just 39% from the floor and score 58.6 ppg. The outside shot has been impossible to make against the Flames as they are allow just 29.9% from 3-point range.
Last year the Phoenix went into Chicago and won by eight so I'm expecting a little payback today. Illinois-Chicago has struggled a little lately, losing some close games to conference foes. I think this rough patch has the team focused to pick up an important win here today.
|01-12-13||Orlando Magic v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 198.5||104-101||Loss||-107||7 h 24 m||Show|
3* NBA Total Dominator Clippers/Magic UNDER
Orlando has been playing some high scoring games, but that should come to an end here this afternoon. Both of these teams had two days rest which means plenty of time to refresh the tired legs, plus to get some practice in to shore up any problems on the defensive side of the ball.
You know the Magic have been working on defense too, they have allowed their last nine opponents to score 96 points or more and six of their last seven have put up 105 or more. However, on the season they are only averaging 94.8 ppg so they aren't going to stop their losing streak if they don't get some stops.
The Clippers are getting a reputation as a high scoring team, yet are only putting up 101.8 ppg. What they are doing is play solid defense in allowing opponents to score only 93.1 ppg, and that number drops to 91.7 ppg at home. This game has blowout written all over it, and when a team has a large lead they eat up the clock late. Couple that with the fact this game starts at 3:30 EST and a little after noon in Pacific time where the game will be played, and I'm seeing a lazy start. NBA players aren't used to starting their work days so early.
|01-12-13||Houston v. Southern Mississippi -12.5||54-73||Win||100||17 h 22 m||Show|
4* DOUBLE DIGIT BLOODBATH on Southern Miss -
Southern Miss started off Conference USA action with a bang, going down to Rice and winning by 23 points as 12 point favorites on Wednesday. They should be plenty of confident for this showdown with Houston as they now have shot 50% or better in six of their last seven games and are coming off a 69.6% performance Wednesday.
Houston has won seven straight games but they have played a laughable schedule to date. This will be the toughest team they have faced yet and will find it difficult to score against a Southern MIss defense that is allowing only 51.8 ppg at home on 35.7% shooting. The Cougars do shoot 39.5% from beyond the arc, but that number has dipped to 27.7% on the road and shouldn't get much better facing a Golden Eagle defense allowing opponents to make just 29.5% of their 3-point attempts.
|01-11-13||Portland Trail Blazers v. Golden State Warriors -7.5||97-103||Loss||-110||18 h 56 m||Show|
3* NO DOUBT ROUT on Golden State Warriors -
This is a good matchup for the Warriors to get back on track after losing two straight games to the Clippers and Grizzlies. Portland comes into this one fresh off last night's win over the Miami Heat. The Blazers put everything they had into that game, as most teams do, so it's going to be difficult for them to play on no rest down in Oakland.
Portland shoots four more 3-point shots a game than their opponents normally allow, so they will have trouble against a Golden State team allowing just 30% from beyond the arc at Oracle Arena. The Warriors are shooting 47% at home while Portland allows 47.3% on the road.
In comparison, Golden State is giving up just 42.1% at home while Portland is shooting 42.4% outside of Oregon. Don't be afraid to lay the points with the home chalk here tonight.
|01-11-13||San Jose St +10 v. Utah State||60-66||Win||100||16 h 24 m||Show|
3* VEGAS INSIDER on San Jose State +
I like how San Jose State matches up with Utah State here tonight. The Aggies have won 12 straight games so you have to give them some respect, but they haven't really taken down anyone tough yet. The Spartans haven't either, but they did go into Kansas and only lose by 13 points, so I think they can keep this one to single digits.
The key is the Spartan defense, which is allowing opponents to shot just 39.3% from the floor and has held three of their last five opponents to less than 36%. Utah State has been efficient on the offensive side of the ball all year, but has slowed down in their last two games shooting only 43.1% and 41.5% in games they won but didn't cover. They also allowed their last two opponents to shoot 48.3% and 46.4% from the field.
How did they win those games? Rebounding and winning the turnover battle. The problem is that San Jose State is good at both of those areas too.
Utah State looks like the better team on paper, but I'll take the Spartans plus the big number here tonight and hope their defense comes to play.
|01-11-13||Minnesota Timberwolves +2.5 v. New Orleans Hornets||92-104||Loss||-110||15 h 28 m||Show|
3* HEAVY HITTER on Minnesota Timberwolves +
New Orleans has played well over the past week and it has created a little bit of value here for us tonight. The Hornets have won three straight and their last two were particularly impressive over San Antonio and Houston since they held those teams to 88 and 79 points, respectively.
Minnesota is coming off an ugly 22 point loss to Oklahoma City on Wednesday, but the Thunder are one of the best teams in the league and were out for blood after getting blown out themselves the game before. The Wolves were without Kevin Love, who re-injured his hand and will be out for a couple of months. However, that loss isn't as significant as I think is reflected in this line since Love wasn't really himself this year. He was shooting terribly and only putting up significant numbers due to the volume of shots he was taking. Sure, they will miss some of his rebounding but this team has done a pretty good job this year even without him producing like his normal self.
The Wolves won in New Orleans back on 12/14 by a score of 113-102 and were 4.5 point favorites. Now they are getting two points which is an over-reaction to how the Hornets have played recently and the loss of Kevin Love. Take the visitors and the points tonight.
|01-11-13||San Antonio Spurs v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 188||98-101||Loss||-105||15 h 27 m||Show|
3* Total Dominator on Grizzlies/Spurs UNDER
This is a low total for a San Antonio team that is averaging 105 ppg, but they haven't been as explosive here lately. The Spurs put up only 88 points at New Orleans and 83 points at New York in their last two road games and have now played UNDER the total in four straight games and six of their last seven.
Memphis has also played UNDER the total in six of their last seven games and they are doing it by continuing to play suffocating defense. During that stretch no team has scored more than 88 points against them and the only OVER was when the Grizzlies threw up 113 against a bad Kings teams. Memphis is only allowing 86.7 ppg at home this year so it isn't just a recent trend either.
Expect some playoff intensity tonight between these two teams as they are tied in the loss column with 10 losses each. They are battling it out for the Southwest Division title so I expect both teams to dial up the defensive intensity as this one goes UNDER easily.
|01-11-13||Chicago Bulls +5 v. New York Knicks||108-101||Win||100||15 h 27 m||Show|
3* HIGH ROLLER on Chicago Bulls +
These two teams have already played twice this year and Chicago has beaten New York both times. The Bulls won at home back on 12/8 by a score of 93-85 and then followed that up with a win in the Big Apple on 12/21 by a score of 110-106. I think they have a good shot at making it three straight here tonight.
The Bulls have been a solid road team this year, going 9-5 compared to 10-9 at home and have one two straight away from the United Center after beating Miami and Orlando last week. Chicago will be focused for this one after losing to Milwaukee on Tuesday night, but the Bucks were an energized bunch playing their second game without previous head coach Scott Skiles.
Chicago is 58-39 ATS on the road the last three seasons including 10-1 ATS on Friday nights. Teams normally bounce back after getting upset at home, and I think Chicago will do just that tonight.
|01-11-13||Houston Rockets v. Boston Celtics UNDER 200.5||Top||91-103||Win||100||15 h 58 m||Show|
5* Total NO BRAINER on Rockets/Celtics UNDER
These two teams met earlier this season in Houston and played to a final score of 101-89 and I expect another low scoring affair here tonight.
Is it any surprise Boston has upped the defensive intensity over the last five games? Their defensive stopper, Avery Bradley, finally returned from injury and the whole team seems to be rejuvenated. The Celtics have won four in a row and are doing it with defense. Boston has allowed 75, 81, 96, and 79 in those four games and no opponent has shot better than 41.2%.
Houston on the other hand, did not start their three game road trip as planned, losing in New Orleans by a final score of 79-88. The Hornets have been playing better defensively lately, but Boston is better on that end with Bradley than nearly every team in the league.
Solid system backs our play that says to take the UNDER when the total is over 200 in non-conference games and one of the teams went UNDER by more than 24 points last game. This system is 51-18 for the UNDER the last five seasons. Plus, when two teams with a winning record face each other on Friday nights and the total is over 200, the UNDER has gone 90-50 over the past five years.
|01-10-13||Dallas Mavericks v. Sacramento Kings -2||117-112||Loss||-105||15 h 51 m||Show|
3* HEAVY HITTER on Sacramento Kings -
The Sacramento Kings will be out for revenge against the Dallas Mavericks on Thursday night as back on 12/10 Dallas put a beatdown on them 119-96 in which they led 65-43 at the half. Sacramento has also lost back to back games by 20+ points so you know they got down to business over their last two days off.
Before those two games Sacramento had to be flying high (and losing to Brooklyn and Memphis isn't a cause for concern by itself). They had covered in eight of the previous nine games and had even beaten teams like Golden State, Portland, New York, and Boston.
Dallas is coming off a tough game last night in which they played the LA Clippers tough. It's going to be tough to bring the energy on back-to-back nights, especially as Dirk works his way back into game shape. The Mavs have lost four in a row and 10 of their last 11, with their only win coming against the Wizards. Take the Kings tonight.
|01-10-13||San Diego +6.5 v. San Francisco||70-66||Win||100||15 h 44 m||Show|
3* HIGH ROLLER on San Diego +
San Diego hasn't had much luck playing away from home this year but I think that changes tonight. Even though they don't have the best road record, their last four games have all been competitive compared to expectations.
San Francisco has played some good teams this year and played them tough, and that should help them in the conference schedule but it also has them a little over-valued in this one. They played BYU tough at home and Santa Clara tough on the road, but this team lost five straight games heading into Christmas day and a lot of them weren't even close.
San Francisco relies on the 3-point shot and they shoot well from the perimeter, but San Diego has defended the outside shot well all year long. I think this game is a nail biter so will gladly take the six points here today. San Francisco is just 19-37 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less since 1997.
|01-10-13||UCLA v. Utah +5.5||57-53||Win||100||14 h 14 m||Show|
3* PAC-12 POWER PLAY on Utah + over UCLA
Utah is still being undervalued from last year's terrible season, but this squad has improved and has been a money maker at the pay window going 9-2 ATS. They have played three pretty good teams in BYU, Arizona State, and Arizona and while they lost all three, it was only by a total of seven points when the odds had them as a combined 40 point underdogs in those games. Plus, they were all on the road and they get the Bruins at home.
UCLA has won seven in a row and is now 12-3 on the year, but the Utes are 50-31 ATS at home when playing a team with a record above 60% and 14-3 ATS at home when playing a team with a 80%+ mark. They haven't played a true road game yet, but have yet to cover on a neutral floor, losing to Georgetown by 8, beating Georgia by 4 as 12 point favorites, losing to San Diego State by 9, and only beating Texas by 2 as 6.5 point favorites.
The value is with the home underdog here tonight.
|01-10-13||Northern Arizona +4.5 v. Eastern Washington||59-82||Loss||-110||14 h 43 m||Show|
3* VEGAS INSIDER on Northern Arizona+
Northern Arizona has a bad record and a bad margin of defeat, but that is largely due to playing some stiff competition on the road. This team lost by 43 at Arizona, 47 at Colorado and by 30 at BYU. Obviously Eastern Washington is nowhere near the class of those three teams. This squad has been pretty competitive outside of those three teams so I think they are under-valued in this spot.
The Eagles have been struggling lately, losing six of their last seven games both SU and at the pay window. Their only cover was last time out when they lost by two as a three point dog to Montana State, a team N. Arizona beat by seven in the middle of December. Eastern Washington is 5-14 ATS after two or more straight losses the past three seasons.
Eastern Washington is 0-3 against common opponents so far this season, losing by 13 ppg. Northern Arizona on the other hand has gone 2-1. They are the better team and getting five points is too many for them, even with this game on the road.
|01-09-13||Milwaukee Bucks v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 187.5||Top||104-96||Loss||-110||11 h 55 m||Show|
5* Total NO BRAINER on Bulls/Bucks UNDER
Milwaukee fired coach Scott Skiles and then went out and scored 108 points against the Phoenix Suns last night, so some might think a change of philosophy sparked the offense. In reality it was more just hot shooting as the team shot 9-of-17 from behind the 3-point line. Obviously they can't keep up that pace no matter who is coaching.
The Bulls recent win was a 118-92 spanking of Cleveland that was uncharacteristically high scoring for them. Instead their previous four games they didn't allow their opponent to score more than 94 points, while not scoring more than 96 themselves. On their home floor Chicago is allowing just 89.8 ppg and 42.5% shooting.
The two games these two teams have played this year have both gone UNDER the number. Both games were played back in November with final scores of 93-92 and 93-86. Chicago will want to revenge that home loss on 11/26 and to do that they know defense is their best way to do that. Look for a slow pace game controlled by the Bulls for an easy UNDER here tonight.
|01-09-13||Valparaiso -2.5 v. Illinois-Chicago||75-70||Win||100||11 h 56 m||Show|
3* NO DOUBT ROUT on Valparaiso -
Why is a 10-5 team getting points to an 11-5 team at home? Because Valpo isn't just winning they are blowing out their opponents with a 9.2 margin of victory compared to 5.2 for Illinois-Chicago.
Both of these teams have been solid on the defensive end of the floor, but Valpo's edge comes on offense where they are shooting almost 7% higher from the floor than the Flames. The other edge that I like with the Crusaders is with rebounding. This team is pulling down seven more boards per game than their opponents while the Flames are actually getting out rebounded on the season.
Valpo has won the last six games in this series and took Ill-Chicago down by five on the road last year. I think they win by a similar amount here tonight.
|01-09-13||Mississippi v. Tennessee UNDER 134.5||92-74||Loss||-110||9 h 16 m||Show|
4* TOTAL NO BRAINER on Ole Miss/Tennessee UNDER
Ole Miss has been routing teams and that is setting up some value with this number for us to take advantage of today. The Rebels have scored 81+ points in four straight games and are averaging 83.1 ppg on the year. Last time out they trounced Fordham 95-68.
Tennessee on the other hand has been doing their damage on the defensive side of the floor. The Vols are allowing just 58.7 ppg on 40% shooting. Opposing teams shoot just 27.5% from outside the 3-point line against them. Another reason there is some value in this line is Memphis just got done putting up 85 against them. You can expect this team buckled down the last few days in practice to make sure that kind of defense won't continue in SEC action, since the Vols can't when high scoring games.
Last year these two teams met twice with totals of 128 and 125. Sure, they went over both times but that shows you just how different odds makers are treating this game. I think the value is with the UNDER here tonight as Tennessee controls the pace at home, slows things up, and keeps the point totals low.
|01-09-13||Phoenix Suns v. Boston Celtics -8.5||79-87||Loss||-110||10 h 24 m||Show|
3* HEAVY HITTER on Celtics -
The Suns are playing back-to-back off a tightly contested game with the Milwaukee Bucks last night. Phoenix led at half but had a meltdown after the break to lose by 9.
Is it shocking that the Celtics have won three games in a row? Avery Bradley returned four games ago and this team once again is bringing it on the defensive end of the floor. They have allowed 96 points in New York, 81 v. Atlanta, and 75 against the Pacers in their last three games and it's due in large part to getting their best defender back from injury.
Boston won in New York without Rondo on Monday night, but he has served his suspension and will be on the floor tonight. Boston isn't going to take any game lightly, even though this is a non-conference game being played in January. They stand at 17-17 and know that every game is important if they want a high seed come playoff time.
Phoenix is allowing teams to shoot 47.2% against them this year while Boston is shooting 48% at home. With the Suns losing by an average of 10 ppg on the road this year, I see another double digit loss in their future because right now Boston is at full strength and at full strength they are an above average team.
|01-09-13||Atlanta Hawks v. Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 192.5||83-99||Loss||-101||8 h 22 m||Show|
3* TOTAL DOMINATOR on Cavs/Hawks OVER
When these two teams meet up it seems like there are a lot of points that get put up on the board. The Cavs and Hawks have played OVER the number in five straight in this series dating back to the beginning of last year. The Hawks won back on 12/28 102-94 in Cleveland, while in Nov. the Cavs went into Atlanta to win 113-111. Last year the two teams put up 205, 190, and 215 points in their three meetings.
Both of these teams are coming off games in which they sailed over the total as well. The Cavs have actually gone over in three straight with totals of 210, 216, and 210 points. Atlanta had played three straight low scoring games before going to Minnesota last night for a 103-108 finale.
Both of these teams are on short rest so it's not like they will have made any adjustments on defense to shore up their holes, and their offensive outburst should have given the shooters plenty of confidence. I like this one to go over again here tonight.
|01-09-13||North Carolina-Wilmington +8 v. James Madison||50-78||Loss||-110||10 h 56 m||Show|
3* BLUE CHIP SPECIAL on UNC Wilmington +
These two teams are a little more evenly matched than most people think, but Wilmington has played eight road games so far this season and has yet to win one. That might sound bad, but they actually covered their last five away from home so they are playing tough as a visitor.
James Madison has had a tough stretch here lately. They have lost two games in a row, but they are actually in the strange situation you don't see very often in college basketball of playing their third game in five nights. They haven't had much of a chance to prepare for tonight's opponent.
The Seahawks have struggled on offense this year in scoring just 61 ppg, but James Madison allows their opponents to shoot 45%. I think this is the game they get back on track and pick up a road win.
|01-09-13||Western Michigan +14 v. Akron||43-65||Loss||-106||10 h 55 m||Show|
3* HEAVY HITTER on Western Michigan +
This is a pretty good matchup for the Broncos to be catching 14 points in. Akron is definitely a good team who scores efficiently and plays pretty good defense, but don't sleep on Western Michigan. They have played the tougher schedule to date and have came out looking pretty good at 8-5.
There are two things I love about this underdog. The first is they get to the foul line at a high rate. The team shoots four more three throws a game than their opponents give up, while Akron allows two more free throws per game than their opponents normally take. The other is rebounding. They are dominating the boards against their opponents by nearly 9 more per game. Akron's rebounding numbers are impressive too, but when they shoot at a higher rate that their opponents that is going naturally be the case (defensive boards are easier to grab than offensive.)
The Broncos have wins over South Florida and Oakland. They have been beat up pretty bad by Michigan and NC State, but those two teams are a lot better than the Zips. I don't see Akron winning this game in a rout so I'll gladly take the points.
|01-09-13||Toledo +8.5 v. Kent State||70-58||Win||100||10 h 54 m||Show|
3* HIGH ROLLER on Toledo +
When a 4-7 team is playing a 9-5 team you know the public is going to be on the favorite, but a closer look at these two teams makes me think this line is a little high here tonight. The Rockets are actually being outscored by only a point a game and five of their seven losses have been by six points or less. This team has only played three home games on the year, so they are at least tested to be competitive when taking to the road.
Kent State on the other hand isn't all that impressive. Sure they have won four games in a row and their last win on 1/2 over Cleveland State is worthy of taking note, but the other three teams they beat were St. Francis, Arkansas State, and Fairmont State. The last two they beat by a total of six points.
I expect Toledo to get to the line a lot tonight and when they do the Rockets shoot 76.6% as a team. They average three more free throw attempts than their opponents normally tie up and Kent gives up three more than their opponents normally take. Roll the dog.
|01-08-13||Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 187.5||77-87||Win||100||21 h 45 m||Show|
4* NBA Total NO BRAINER on Heat/Pacers UNDER
Indiana is a team that prefers to slow things down and win with their defense, and I think being the home team they control the pace here tonight. Indiana is only scoring 91.4 ppg against teams allowing 97.9 and giving up 89.8 ppg against teams who score 96.6. They do a great job of shutting down the outside shot, allowing opponents to only shoot 31.2% from behind the arc.
Miami has gone UNDER in two straight games and looked especially tough against Washington on Sunday, allowing the Wizards to score just 71 points on 35.8% shooting. Indiana has gone UNDER in four straight and six of their last seven . They have struggled offensively but shut down opposing shooters.
These two teams met last year in the playoffs and saw their totals around 180. This one is six points higher and I feel like that leads to a good chance the UNDER hits tonight.
Play the UNDER when a team is coming off a win by 15 points or more against an opponent coming off a win by 20 or more. This system is 201-132 (60.4%) dating back to 1996. The Pacers are 40-24 for the UNDER against teams who make 46% or more of their shots the last three years while Miami is 12-1 UNDER off a home win against a divisional rival the last three years.
|01-08-13||Brooklyn Nets v. Philadelphia 76ers UNDER 187||109-89||Loss||-100||21 h 45 m||Show|
3* NBA Total Dominator on Nets/Sixers UNDER
Two teams that know each other well face off tonight and I think points will be at a premium. The two teams met back on 12/23 with the Nets winning 95-92, just slipping under the total of 187.5. That made the UNDER 8-5 now when these two teams have met dating back to the 2009-10 season. When you play each other as many times a year as these two do, you have a pretty good idea of what your opponents likes to do and it's easier to stop.
The Sixers have been having problems putting points on the board anyway. Philadelphia has scored more than 89 points just once in their last six games so it's no surprise this team has gone UNDER in five of their last six and seven of their last nine. Brooklyn has been putting up points lately which has inflated this total a little bit, but the value is with the UNDER.
Brooklyn is 13-4 UNDER against teams who turn the ball over 14 times or less this year and they are 21-7 UNDER against teams who make six or more 3's per game the last two years. The Nets are 15-5 UNDER when playing on two days rest the last three years and 19-6 UNDER on the road after an over the last two years.
|01-08-13||Northeastern +5.5 v. Drexel||63-58||Win||100||21 h 38 m||Show|
3* HEAVY HITTER on Northeastern +
Northeastern has done a good job in CAA action the last few years but there is one team they have struggled with: Drexel. Last year they lost at home by 8 points and by 18 on the road. Those two losses made it six straight in the series, and I think this Northeastern team is going to be out to take advantage of a Drexel team that isn't as good as the odds makers think.
Senior co-captain Jonathan Lee missed the first nine games of the season with a foot injury but returned to the lineup for the last five games. This team has seen a boost with his return as Lee has posted double figures in each of those games. He is doing it all and I think this line is based off of how the team has looked in the season as a whole, instead of with one of their best players in the lineup.
Another key to this game will be how often Northeastern can get to the line. They are averaging 21 free throws per game against teams allowing only 19, while Drexel is allowing opponents to shoot 21 per game who average only 19. I like teams who can get to the line and convert and Northeastern fits the bill as they shoot 73.5% from the charity stripe.
This is a live dog who has a real chance to win outright on Tuesday.
A couple of systems support our play tonight that say to fade a home team off a conference loss as a favorite of six or more if they have a losing record on the year. This system is 48-19 (71.6%) the last five years. Drexel is also 0-7 ATS as a favorite this season and 2-9 ATS the last two years against teams who foul less than 17 times per game.
|01-08-13||Appalachian State +8 v. Wofford||50-49||Win||100||21 h 37 m||Show|
3* HIGH ROLLER on Appalachian State +
Wofford is one of the worst offensive teams around, putting up just 58.9 ppg on 38.6% shooting, but they are excellent on the defensive end of the floor holding teams to 59.6 ppg. How do they do it? By holding opponents to just 30.2% from the 3-point line and by cleaning up the boards.
App State though does not shoot a lot of three pointers so I'm not as concerned about the perimeter defense. Instead I'm looking at a team that scores 72.6 ppg against opponents who allow 72 and see an above average offense who can outscore a team that struggles to produce points.
These two teams enter this game in completely different directions. Wofford has played a tough schedule and lost big to Virginia and Tulane. While losses were expected losing by 35 and 14 can deflate your confidence. They haven't shot better than 36.2% in their last three games so it's not like they can be confident shooting the ball.
App State on the other hand played a couple of bunnies the last two times out in Presbyterian and Milligan, but took care of the first by eight and the latter by 20. I'll take the points with the confident team here tonight.
A couple of systems support our play that say to take road underdogs of more than 3.5 points off two or more straight wins who have won less than 40% of their games on the year. This system is 50-22 (69.4%) the last five seasons. App State is also 12-4 ATS the last two years against teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game.
|01-07-13||San Antonio Spurs v. New Orleans Hornets +8||88-95||Win||100||13 h 41 m||Show|
3* High Roller on Hornets +8 over Spurs
New Orleans has played San Antonio twice this year and have kept it close both time. The first was in New Orleans back on 10/31 where the Spurs won 99-95, then the Hornets traveled to San Antonio on 12/21 and dropped the game 94-99. That should give the team plenty of confidence they can hang with one of the best teams in the league.
San Antonio has been a covering machine lately, cashing tickets in six of their last eight. We rode them over Philadelphia on Saturday to revenge their loss to New York, but this could be a little bit of a look past situation with the Lakers and Grizzlies on deck.
New Orleans should have some confidence after winning in Dallas on Saturday night and they are in a good spot. The Hornets are 24-12 ATS revering a same season loss and 33-18 ATS as an underdog of between 3.5-9.5 points the last two seasons.
|01-07-13||Georgia State v. Hofstra +5||50-52||Win||100||12 h 37 m||Show|
3* Heavy Hitter on Hofstra +5 over Georgia State
Hofstra hasn't played since January 1st so they have had plenty of time to prepare for this game against Georgia State. You know that they worked hard this week in practice as they are out for revenge against a team that beat them by 16 points on their home floor last year and by 35 points in the first round of the CAA Tournament in March.
Neither one of these teams is very good, the Pride have lost eight in a row and five of six at the pay window while Georgia State broke a five game losing streak with a win over James Madison on Saturday. It was the first time in seven tries they had covered as a favorite this year.
I'll take the points with the home dog who will be out for revenge in this one.
|01-06-13||Charlotte Bobcats v. Detroit Pistons OVER 193.5||108-101||Win||100||11 h 35 m||Show|
4* Total Dominator on Pistons/Bobcats OVER 193.5
Charlotte is a bad defensive team and Detroit should be able to take advantage of that here today. The Bobcats are giving up 105.7 ppg on the road to teams that are scoring just 97.1 ppg and 17 of their last 18 opponents have score 97 or more points against them.
Detroit had been scoring a decent amount of points lately, putting up 96 or more in six straight before beating Atlanta 85-84 Friday night. At home they have been shooting 46.7% on the year and 39.5% from behind the arc. That should bode well for them as Charlotte is giving up 40.7% from 3-point range away from home. The Pistons are 25-10 for the OVER against bad teams who are outscored by 6+ ppg on the year and 10-1 for the OVER at home after allowing 85 or less the last three seasons.
The last three match ups between these two teams have gone OVER by scores of 109-85, 110-107 and 109-94. All signs point to a lot of points here on Sunday.
|01-06-13||Northwestern v. Minnesota UNDER 133||Top||51-69||Win||100||10 h 60 m||Show|
5* Total No Brainer on Minnesota/Northwestern UNDER 133
Two teams square off in the Big Ten on Sunday who have been excellent on the defensive end of the floor this year. Northwestern is allowing opponents who score 68.5 ppg to only put up 61.8 against them. Teams are shooting just 41.3% from the floor compared to their season average of 43.7%.
Minnesota is no slouch either as they allow just 59.8 ppg against teams who score 69.4. Opponents are shooting only 38.1% against them compared to their season average of 44.6%.
Neither one of these two teams turn the ball over very often, so that is going to limit easy buckets in transition. The Gophers have been a solid rebounding team but the Wildcats do a good job of keeping their opponents off the offensive glass.
Michigan put up 94 points against Northwestern on Thursday night, but that isn't going to happen in back-to-back outings as the Wolverines shot 60% from the floor. Minnesota is coming off a win over Michigan State back on New Year's Eve and might be a little rusty after the long layoff. They scored 76 in that game but had to shoot 56.6% from the floor in order to do so.
The oddsmakers are over-adjusting for what happened last game and I'll gladly take the UNDER here today.
|01-05-13||Golden State Warriors +6 v. Los Angeles Clippers||Top||89-115||Loss||-110||16 h 48 m||Show|
5* Pacific Division Game of the Year on the Warriors +6 over the Clippers
Golden State beat the Clippers the first time around by a final score of 114-110 so this team should be confident they can go into LA and do it again tonight. Add in the fact that Golden State just beat them on Wednesday night at home and you can see why we like the matchup. Some might consider the Clippers as motivated to revenge the early season loss, but that is more of a myth than reality in the NBA. In fact, teams with a winning record that are favorites of 3.5-9.5 points revenging two straight losses where opponents put up 100 or more are just 42-78 ATS the last 5 seasons.
There aren't many teams playing better than the Warriors right now and they are doing it against some stiff competition. They blew out the Bobcats back on 12/21 at home, then took the Lakers to the wire in Steve Nash's return to the lineup. A four game winning streak quickly followed with an 11 point win in Utah, a 7 point win over the Sixers, 18 points over the Celtics, and the 21 point beating they handed the Clippers.
LA is struggling after their long winning streak, losing by 14 at Denver and by 21 at Golden State. They have to play their cross town rival Lakers on Friday night and you know they are going to go all out for that game on ESPN. Don't plan on them having this game circled against the Warriors tonight even with Golden State beating up on them a few days ago.
This is a tough spot for the Clippers. This will be the team's fourth game in five nights and seventh in their last ten. The rest situation is brutal for LA right now as they haven't had more than one day off since 12/12. The Warriors take advantage and cover here tonight.
|01-05-13||Philadelphia 76ers v. San Antonio Spurs -13||86-109||Win||100||14 h 47 m||Show|
3* No Doubt Rout on San Antonio -12.5 over Philadelphia
Look for the Spurs to bounce back at home tonight against Philadelphia. Teams that are outscoring their opponents by 3+ ppg usually come back strong after a blowout loss of 15 points or more, going 110-67 ATS over the last five seasons. San Antonio is outscoring opponents by 8.2 ppg and is coming off a 17 point loss to the Knicks on Thurday night. This is a tough spot for the Sixers as they are playing their fourth game in five nights. They had to play in Oklahoma City last night and played the Thunder pretty tough in the first half before running out of gas in the second.
This is the final game of a eight game road trip before the team gets a couple of days off leading into a home game against Brooklyn. If a team is ever looking to get home it happens after a stretch like this, especially when the team has only managed two wins so far during the trip. The Spurs should jump out early and stay ahead by double digits most of the game.
|01-05-13||Sacramento Kings v. Brooklyn Nets UNDER 195.5||93-113||Loss||-110||13 h 47 m||Show|
3* Total Dominator on Nets/Kings UNDER 195.5
Both of these teams are coming off back-to-backs but the Brooklyn Nets are in a unique situation of playing on no rest after a double overtime thriller last night against the Washington Wizards. I think that means you'll be seeing this team slow it up a little more as they won't have the energy to push the pace.
That's good news for a Kings team that is giving up 101.6 ppg on the year and only scoring 96.8. Brooklyn doesn't score a lot anyway, putting up only 94.7 on the year against teams allowing 97.6. The Nets are a strong defensive team allowing 94.4 ppg against teams who score 98.2.
The recent high scoring streak for Sacramento has given us a few points of value here. These two teams met earlier in the year for a 99-90 final with a total of 192.5. Now the total is four points higher and the Nets are tired and will slow the pace. Roll the UNDER with confidence.