|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|05-31-14||San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder OVER 206.5||112-107||Win||100||10 h 10 m||Show|
3* NBA Playoffs Total Annihilator on OVER
These two teams have finished under the total in each of the last 4 games in the series, despite the fact that at least one team has scored 100+ in every game. I look for a much more competitive game than what we have had to this point and I believe that creates a lot of value on the over.
San Antonio is averaging 106.2 ppg in the playoffs and the Thunder aren't far behind at 102.2 ppg. The Spurs appear to have figured out Oklahoma City's defense and you can bank on the Thunder being at their best offensively at home, where they are averaging 107.5 ppg on the season.
The OVER is 20-8 in the Spurs last 28 games after 3 or more consecutive games that finished under the total. That's a solid 71% system in play. Take the OVER 206.5!
|05-30-14||Indiana Pacers v. Miami Heat -7.5||Top||92-117||Win||100||10 h 29 m||Show|
5* Pacers/Heat NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Heat -
The Pacers put everything on the line to win Game 5 at home and I just don't see them being able to deliver a similar performance on the road. Miami understands how important it is to end the series on their home floor and not have to go back to Indiana for a Game 7. Considering how the Heat dominated both games at American Airlines Arena in Game 3 (99-87) and Game 4 (102-90), I don't have a problem laying the points.
Both of these teams are great on the defensive end, but the big difference is that the Heat have players who can score no matter who is defending them. Indiana on the other hand is limited offensively and I look for them to really struggle to get anything going with Miami 100% focused on the defensive side of the ball. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we had a similar outcome to last year's Game 7 in Miami in the Conference Finals, where the Heat destroyed Indiana 99-76.
Miami is 30-17 ATS in their last 47 games revenging a loss to an opponent, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after a game where they failed to cover the spread and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Indiana on the other hand is just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games after a win by 6-points or less. That's a solid 68% (52-24) system in favor of the Heat. Take Miami!
|05-29-14||Oklahoma City Thunder v. San Antonio Spurs -5||89-117||Win||100||10 h 39 m||Show|
3* Spurs/Thunder NBA Playoffs Main Event on Spurs -
As bad as the Spurs have looked in the last two games at Oklahoma City, I look for them to respond with a big time performance at home in Game 5. San Antonio is going to treat this as if it were a Game 7, as they don't want to go to Oklahoma City for Game 6 down 3-2.
The Spurs offense played about as poorly as they could in Games 3 and 4, shooting under 40% in both contests. I'm confident they aren't going to shoot better at home. Another key thing to factor in is that Oklahoma City invested a lot of energy to win the last two games and there's a good chance they won't be able to match the Spurs intensity tonight.
San Antonio is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games and 25-11-1 in their last 37 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.
There's also a strong system in play. Explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 154-84 ATS since 1996. That's a 65% system in favor of San Antonio. Take the Spurs!
|05-28-14||Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers +2.5||90-93||Win||100||10 h 42 m||Show|
3* Heat/Pacers NBA Playoffs No Doubt Rout on Pacers +
Indiana's chances of winning the series doesn't look good, but I don't expect the Pacers to let their season come to an end at home. I fully expect Indiana to come out and play like they did in their 107-96 home win in Game 1. While the Pacers will be laying everything on the line to stay alive, Miami could find it difficult to match their intensity from the previous three games with a comfortable lead. The Heat could also be without two key role players, as both Ray Allen and Chris Anderson are both listed as questionable for Game 5.
The Pacers are 31-18 ATS in their last 49 games off a road loss, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss, and 4-1 in their last 5 after a SU defeat by more than 10 points.
There's a strong system in play, home teams where the line is +3 to -3, who are playing with triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent - against opponent after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite are 69-37 ATS since 1996. That's a 65% system in favor of Indiana. Take the Pacers!
|05-27-14||San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5||92-105||Win||100||11 h 38 m||Show|
3* Spurs/Thunder NBA Playoffs Main Event on Thunder -
The Thunder got new life in the series with a 106-97 win at home in Game 3 and a big reason for that was return of Serge Ibaka. Not only did Ibaka's return provide an emotional lift for the rest of the team, he had a huge impact on the game with 15 points, 7 rebounds and 4 blocks.
The Spurs no longer got easy looks in the paint and as a result their offense was completely out of whack. San Antonio shot just 39.6% from the field. With Ibaka feeling fine and expected to play in Game 4, I think the Thunder are showing unbelievable value as a small home favorite. Keep in mind that Oklahoma City won all four regular season matchups with Ibaka on the floor.
San Antonio is just 2-7 in their last 9 games after a contest where they failed to cover the spread and are a mere 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games in the playoffs. Oklahoma City on the other hand is 15-3 in their last 18 home games versus a team that's won more than 60% of their road games and 32-18 in their last 50 home games with a total set between 200 and 209.5 points. That's a 64% system in favor of the Thunder. Take Oklahoma City!
|05-26-14||Indiana Pacers +6.5 v. Miami Heat||90-102||Loss||-110||10 h 32 m||Show|
4* NBA Playoffs No Brainer on Pacers +
The Pacers got out to a 15-point lead early in Game 3, but weren't able to finish the job, as Miami rallied and ended up winning by a final of 99-87. Indiana is more than capable of winning on the road and evening up the series at 2-2 and I expect a much more complete effort in a crucial Game 4. Regardless if the Pacers win this game, they should have no problem keeping it within 6-points to cover the spread. If it wasn't for Ray Allen's 4 3-pointers in the 4th quarter of Game 3, Indiana would have easily covered the number.
I really like the balance that the Pacers have displayed offensively. Four different players scored in double-figures and four more had at least 6-points. Miami relies heavily on James and Wade, who combined for 49 points. No other Heat starter reached double figures. I look for the Indiana defense to turn it up a notch and really make things difficult on the Heat in Game 4.
Indiana is 31-17 ATS in their last 48 games off a road loss, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 after a game where they failed to cover the spread and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 following a SU loss of more than 10 points. That's a 69% (42-19) system in favor of the Pacers. Take Indiana!
|05-25-14||San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder -2||Top||97-106||Win||100||31 h 19 m||Show|
5* Spurs/Thunder NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Thunder -
It's do or die for the Thunder and I look for them to get the job done at home with or without Ibaka. Just the fact that Ibaka is trying to fight through the pain to play, should serve as a huge emotional lift for the rest of the Thunder.
The big key here is that Oklahoma City will be playing at home and should get more out of their role players on the offensive side of the ball. I would also expect to see a better defensive effort than what the Thunder displayed in the first two games. Kevin Durant is also due for a big game and I look for him to deliver when his team needs him the most.
Keep in mind that the Thunder won both regular season matchups at home without much problem. They won by 8 in November and 12 in early April. Going back over the previous 3 seasons, Oklahoma City is 8-1 in their last 9 home games against the Spurs.
The Thunder are 18-8 in their last 26 home games revenging a loss, 13-4 in their last 17 after allowing 105+ in each of their last two games and 20-7 in their last 27 games after failing to cover the spread in 3 of their last 4. That's a 73% (51-19) system in favor of the Thunder. Take Oklahoma City!
|05-24-14||Indiana Pacers +7 v. Miami Heat||87-99||Loss||-115||10 h 16 m||Show|
3* NBA Playoffs Main Event on Pacers +
I believe the books have overvalued the Heat big time at home in Game 3. Indiana poses a very difficult matchup for Miami and have to feel like they should be up 2-0. I just don't see enough separation between these two teams to expect the Heat to win here by 8+ points. It wouldn't come as a surprise at all if Indiana won this game straight up. Either way, I like them to cover the spread.
The Pacers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games revenging a loss at home, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 after failing to cover the spread last time out. Miami on the other hand is just 9-21 ATS in their last 30 home games after playing a game as a road favorite and just 6-18 in their last 24 home games after playing two straight on the road. That's a 77% system in favor of Indiana. Take the Pacers!
|05-21-14||Oklahoma City Thunder +6 v. San Antonio Spurs||77-112||Loss||-105||9 h 23 m||Show|
3* NBA Playoffs ATS Annihilator on Thunder +
The Thunder ended up losing Game 1 by 17-points, which wasn't a huge surprise given it was their first game without Ibaka. I look for Oklahoma City to make the proper adjustments for Game 2. I don't know that it will be enough for the win, but I like the value here getting 6-points. Keep in mind that the Thunder trailed the Spurs by just 7-points going into the 4th quarter.
Durant and Westbrook both played well in Game 1, combining for 53 points on 19 of 40 shooting. I look for an even bigger performance out of these two in what most would consider a must-win for OKC. I also expect a stronger defensive performance in Game 2. The Spurs did as they pleased in Game 1, shooting 57.5% from the floor (50 of 87) and 52.9% from behind the 3-point line (9-17). As good as San Antonio is offensively, it's going to be extremely difficult to match that level of efficiency in consecutive games.
Oklahoma City is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after failing to cover the spread, 4-1 in their last 5 conference finals games and 4-1 in their last 5 road games. The Spurs on the other hand are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing 100+ points in their last game. That's a 82% system in favor of the Thunder. Take Oklahoma City!
|05-20-14||Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 185||Top||87-83||Win||100||9 h 49 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs Total of the Year on Pacers/Heat UNDER
While the Heat and Pacers combined to score 203 points and crush the total of 182 in Game 1, I'm not expecting that to keep up. It's not uncommon for the first game of a series to be high-scoring. Both teams shot better than 51% from the field in the first game, which won't hold up. Miami is only allowing 93.7 points in the playoffs and Indiana is only giving up 90.3 in the postseason.
With Miami desperately needing a win to fall behind 0-2 and Indiana looking to make sure they leave with the homecourt advantage in tact, I look for both teams to lay it all on the line defensively in this one. I wouldn't be surprised at all if both teams failed to reach 85 points.
Prior to the offensive explosion in Game 1, these two teams had scored fewer than 185 points in 7 of their 8 previous matchups, including each of the previous 3 at Indiana.
The UNDER is 30-17 in the Pacers last 47 games off a double-digit home win, 33-13 in their last 46 games with a total set between 180 and 189.5 and 45-27 in the Heat's last 72 road games when playing just their 2nd game in 5 days. That's a strong 65% system. Take the UNDER!
|05-19-14||Oklahoma City Thunder v. San Antonio Spurs -5.5||105-122||Win||100||11 h 32 m||Show|
4* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Spurs -
The Spurs may have lost all 4 meetings against Oklahoma City during the regular season, but that doesn't mean anything come the playoffs. Just look at what Miami did to Brooklyn after the Nets swept the season series. On top of that, the Thunder will be without Serge Ibaka, who is not only one of their best defensive players, but someone they really rely on offensively. There was already concern that Oklahoma City relied too much on Durant and Westbrook to win it all and now it's a major issue without Ibaka. In the 4 matchups against the Spurs during the regular season, Ibaka averaged 14 points, 11.5 rebounds, 4 blocks and 1.3 steals.
Not having him on the floor is going to make it that much easier on San Antonio defensively, as they can now focus all their attention on stopping the duo of Durant and Westbrook. At the same time, Ibaka's absence should open up things for the Spurs offense, as they should be able to get into the paint and score a lot more than they would have with him playing.
San Antonio is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs a team with a winning road record, 14-5 in their last 19 after a game where they covered the spread. We also see that home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 119-72 since 1996. That's a 62% system in favor of the Spurs. Take San Antonio.
|05-18-14||Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers +3.5||96-107||Win||100||6 h 19 m||Show|
4* Heat/Pacers NBA Playoffs No Brainer on Indiana +
The Pacers had their struggles getting to this point, but none of that matters. All the chemistry concerns can be thrown out the window, Indiana hates the Heat and I look for them to do whatever it takes to win this series. I don't know if they will, but I definitely like them getting points at home in Game 1.
The Pacers are 38-10 on their home floor and when they have needed a win at home they have delivered. The home team has dominated this series when it comes to the spread. The visitor is just 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings between these two teams and the Heat are just 2-5 in their last 7 trips to Indiana. Another strong trend in play is that the Pacers are 31-19 ATS in their last 50 home games against 3-point shooting teams (36% or better) over the last 2 seasons. Take Indiana!
|05-15-14||Oklahoma City Thunder +5 v. Los Angeles Clippers||104-98||Win||100||12 h 15 m||Show|
3* NBA Playoffs Main Event on Thunder +
The Thunder stole back the momentum with a furious rally at home to win Game 5 and I look for them to carry that over and finish off the Clippers with a win tonight. Despite getting a split in the two previous games at Los Angeles in the series, Oklahoma City played extremely well and arguably should have won both games. The best part about this is we don't need the Thunder to win to profit. 5-points is a lot for two evenly matched teams, especially with their being a great chance Oklahoma City will win outright.
The Thunder are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team who has won more than 60% of their home games, 3-1-1 ATS following a game where they failed to cover the spread. Los Angeles is just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games against a team with a winning record, 2-6 in their last 8 home games against a team with a winning road record and 0-4 ATS after a came where they covered the spread. Add it up and that's a 79% (27-7) system in favor of Oklahoma City!
|05-14-14||PORTLAND GM5 v. SAN ANTONIO GM5 -7.5||Top||82-104||Win||100||34 h 28 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs Game of the Year on Spurs -
The Trail Blazers may have kept the series going with a win at home in Game 4, but I strongly believe their season will come to an end tonight. As you would expect from a team with a 3-0 lead, the Spurs weren't able to match to the intensity of Portland. Knowing that there's a good chance the Clippers/Thunder series will be going to a Game 7, I look for San Antonio to be all business tonight, as their veterans could use the extra rest.
San Antonio dominated the first three games of this series, winning all three by at least 15 points and I expect a similar result tonight. The Spurs will be much more focused on the defensive end after losing Game 4 and their offensive execution should be back to what we saw in Game 1, 2 and 3.
The Spurs are 33-16 ATS off double-digit loss as a road favorite, while the Trail Blazers are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 road games off a win by double-digits. We also see that home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 118-72 ATS since 1996. That's a strong 62% long-term system in favor of the Spurs!
|05-13-14||LA CLIPPERS GM5 v. OKLAHOMA CITY GM5 -5.5||104-105||Loss||-101||10 h 9 m||Show|
3* NBA Playoffs Main Event on Thunder -
My money is on the Thunder to hold serve and cover the 5.5-point spread at home. If it wasn't for a meltdown in the 4th quarter of Game 4, Oklahoma City would have a commanding 3-1 lead. While I liked the Clippers coming into this series, the Thunder have clearly looked like the better team. Los Angeles had to use ever last ounce of energy they had to rally in Game 4 and I look for them to suffer a major letdown on the road tonight. Oklahoma City's defense has really made it difficult on the Clippers, they have held them to 45% or worse from the field since allowing them to shoot 55% in Game 1.
The Thunder are 23-11 ATS in their last 34 home games revenging a loss where the opponent scored 100+ points and 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games off a loss by 3-points or less. We also see that underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are a poor defensive team - allowing 99+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 100 points or more 4 straight games are just 53-86 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 62% system in favor of Oklahoma City!
|05-12-14||SAN ANTONIO GM4 -3.5 v. PORTLAND GM4||92-103||Loss||-110||14 h 56 m||Show|
4* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Spurs -
The Trail Blazers have shown nothing in the first three games and I expect the Spurs to finish them off tonight in Portland. San Antonio has made it look easy to this point, as their offense is pretty much doing whatever they want against the Trail Blazers lackluster defense. At the same time, the Spurs are making both LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard work extremely hard on the offensive end. I believe the spirit of the Trail Blazers has been broken and while some teams could suffer a letdown up 3-0, San Antonio will be motivated to finish the series and get some much-needed rest before the Western Conference Finals.
Portland is just 2-12 ATS after allowing 105 points or more in 3 straight games, 2-12 ATS in their last 14 home games after 3 or more consecutive losses and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games after trailing in their previous game by 15+ points at the half.
Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are a very good team (>=+7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half are 48-22 ATS since 1996. That's a 69% system in favor of the Spurs.
|05-11-14||INDIANA GM4 v. WASHINGTON GM4 -4.5||95-92||Loss||-105||10 h 17 m||Show|
3* NBA Playoffs Bailout Blowout on Wizards -
John Wall is due for a breakout game and I expect him to deliver when it matters the most. When Wall is attacking and playing well, the rest of the offense just seems to fall into place. I also expect the Wizards to play more small ball and try and spread out the Pacers defense to get their offense back in sync.
|05-11-14||OKLAHOMA CITY GM4 v. LA CLIPPERS GM4 -5||Top||99-101||Loss||-105||6 h 47 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Game of the Month on Clippers -
|05-10-14||SAN ANTONIO GM3 v. PORTLAND GM3 +1.5||118-103||Loss||-110||12 h 51 m||Show|
3* NBA Playoffs No Doubt Rout on Trail Blazers +
I like the Trail Blazers getting points at home in a must win situation. Portland is going to lay everything on line to avoid going down 0-3 and with the way this team plays at home I believe they will get the job done. The Trail Blazers were are a dominant 33-11 at home over the regular season and playoffs and that includes a double-digit win over the Spurs. San Antonio did beat the Blazers on the road in the second meeting in Portland, but it was by a mere 2-points. Given what this game means to the Trail Blazers, the value is with the home team.
There's a couple of strong systems in play favoring Portland. Explosive offensive teams who average 103+ ppg are 153-83 (65%) ATS after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half since 1996. We also see that home underdogs who average 103+ ppg on the season are 56-28 (67%) after allowing 55+ points in the first half in each of their last two games since 1996.
|05-10-14||MIAMI GM3 v. BROOKLYN GM3 +2||90-104||Win||100||9 h 23 m||Show|
4* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Nets +
It hasn't been as competitive a series as most expected to this point, but I don't think the Nets are going to go down without a fight. Brooklyn went into the 4th quarter with a great chance to win Game 2 in Miami, but went ice-cold from the field and ended up scoring just 15 points over the final 12 minutes. I know the Heat have won six straight in the playoffs, but if there was a game where they were going to relax and suffer a letdown, this would be it. I strongly believe the value is with Brooklyn as a home dog.
Brooklyn is 10-1 in their last 11 home games when playing with double revenge and a perfect 9-0 in their last 9 games after two straight losses by 10 or more points. That's a 95% system in favor of the Nets!
|05-09-14||Oklahoma City Thunder v. Los Angeles Clippers -4||118-112||Loss||-104||10 h 11 m||Show|
4* NBA Playoffs No Brainer on Clippers -4
This will be the seventh time these two teams will have faced off this season. No team has been able to win or cover in consecutive games and I expect that trend to continue. I know the the Thunder had the better record in the regular season and have the league's MVP in Kevin Durant, but I think the Clippers are the better team and will be the ones advancing to the Western Conference Finals.
Durant is coming off a monster performance in Game 2, where he just missed out on a triple-double with 32 points, 12 rebounds and 9 assists. While he's going to get his in this series, I think there's a good chance he won't have as big as impact in Game 3. Even if Durant goes off again, I don't see the Thunder getting a similar performance out of Westbrook, who scored 31 points on 13 of 22 shooting. Westbrook is only shooting 42.3% in the playoffs and I look for the Clippers to do a better job of not letting him get as many easy looks.
Keep in mind that while Durant and Westbrook combined for 63 points, Chris Paul and Blake Griffin combined for just 32. I look for both Paul and Griffin to have a much bigger impact and I also like the Clippers supporting cast to have a big game.
Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a road loss of 10 or more points in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75% win pct.) are 118-71 ATS since 1996. That's a 62% system in favor of the Clippers!
|05-08-14||Portland Trailblazers +7 v. SAN ANTONIO GM2||97-114||Loss||-110||12 h 44 m||Show|
3* NBA Playoffs No Doubt Rout on Trail Blazers +
As good as the Spurs looked in their 24-point win in Game 1, I like the Trail Blazers to come back with a much stronger performance in Game 2. Portland is a better team than what they showed on Tuesday and 7-points is simply too many for the Trail Blazers to be catching in this spot. It's not out of the question that Portland won't win this game outright.
The Trail Blazers are too good of an offensive team to repeat their poor shooting from Game 1. Portland shot just 37.8% from the field and were a dismal 4-16 (25%) from long distance. They also had an uncharacteristic 20 turnovers and failed to bring the intensity on the defensive end. These are all areas that they can improve on in Game 2 and I believe they will.
There's a key system in play suggesting a play on Portland. Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are an explosive offensive team, scoring 103+ ppg, after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half are 39-12 ATS since 1996. That's a 77% system in favor of the Trail Blazers!
|05-08-14||Brooklyn Nets +8 v. Miami Heat||Top||82-94||Loss||-110||9 h 8 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Nets +
I wasn't surprised at all to see the Heat dominate Game 1, as Miami had a huge rest advantage and the Nets were coming off that huge Game 7 road win over the Raptors. After a day to regroup and really focus in on the Heat, I expect Brooklyn to look like a completely different team in Game 2. Not only do I think the Nets will keep it close enough to cover, but they have a great shot at winning this game outright.
One of the reasons the Nets were able to have success against the Heat during the regular season, is they slowed the game down and really made Miami work for their offense. That wasn't the case in Game 1, but I'm confident they will execute their game plan better tonight.
Brooklyn is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games off a blowout loss by 15 or more points and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 road games against a team that has won 60% or more of their home games, while the Heat are a mere 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 home games against a team that has won less than 40% of their road games. Combined that's a 76.5% (39-12) system in favor of the Nets!
|05-07-14||LA CLIPPERS GM2 v. OKLAHOMA CITY GM2 -5.5||Top||101-112||Win||100||12 h 22 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs Western Conference Game of the Year on Thunder -
Forget what happened in Game 1. The Clippers, mainly Chris Paul, caught fire in the opener and Oklahoma City was ice-cold and turned the ball over 17 times. Los Angeles shot 54.9% from the field and a staggering 51.7% from behind the 3-point line. Paul was 12 of 14 (8-9 3pts) for 32 points. One of the key things that got overlooked is the Thunder kept Blake Griffin in check for the most part, as he was just 7 of 16 from the field.
The home team has dominated the second round of the NBA playoffs over the years and tonight's matchup also falls into the zig-zag theory. Another thing to keep in mind is that all four regular season games were decided by 6 or more points. This is a big letdown spot for the Clippers and I wouldn't be surprised at all if Oklahoma City returned the favor and won here by double-digits.
The Thunder are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 home games after a combined score of 215 or more, 50-29 ATS in their last 79 off a home loss and 17-7 in their last 24 home games revenging a straight up loss as a favorite.
Explosive offensive teams scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 152-82 ATS since 1996. That's a 65% long-term system in favor of the Thunder!
|05-07-14||Washington Wizards v. Indiana Pacers -4.5||82-86||Loss||-102||9 h 23 m||Show|
4* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Pacers -
The Pacers haven't looked like the same team that dominated early on in the regular season, but they have shown the ability to rally together and win when they need to. Indiana is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss and desperately needs a victory in Game 2 to avoid going down 0-2 with the next two games in Washington. I expect the Pacers to respond and there's a lot of value here with them laying just 4.5-points. Keep in mind that during the two regular season matchups at Indiana, the Pacers were an 11 and 9 point favorite.
The Wizards are surprisingly 4-0 on the road in the playoffs, with each of their last two wins coming away from home. However, Washington is just 11-26 ATS in their last 37 games after 2 or more consecutive road victories.
There's a solid system in play for Indiana. Favorites who are a good defensive team (41.5-43.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less are 70-41 ATS since 1996. That's a 63% system in favor of the Pacers!
|05-06-14||Brooklyn Nets v. Miami Heat -7||86-107||Win||100||8 h 57 m||Show|
4* NBA Playoffs No Brainer on Heat -
Forget about the fact that the Nets swept the regular season series. Miami is a different monster in the postseason and they have a huge advantage going into this series. The Heat were the only team in the first round to sweep their opponent, while the Nets were one of several teams who had to go the distance and on top of that they had to go Toronto for Game 7 on Sunday.
Miami has had a full week off and I look for the extra practice time to pay off big. The Heat are going to have new plays installed and give the Nets a different look than what they saw during the regular season. One of the reasons Brooklyn was able to have success against Miami was because they were able to slow down the game. That's not going to happen tonight. The Heat and their fresh legs will dictate the tempo and I look for them to dominate right from the opening tip.
Adding to the huge rest advantage, teams who have had 5 or more days of rest against an opponent on just 1 day of rest are 9-3 ATS in Game 1 of a series since 2004. This system is even stronger if you look at games only dating back 2009, as it's gone 5-1 during this stretch. Overall it's a 75% system in favor of the Heat!
|05-05-14||Washington Wizards v. Indiana Pacers -4||102-96||Loss||-103||6 h 41 m||Show|
4* NBA Playoffs Heavy Hitter on Pacers -
I was really impressed with the way the Pacers stepped up and delivered two huge performances to avoid an unthinkable upset to the Hawks in the first round. I believe that was exactly what this team needed to get out of their funk and I look for them to carry over that momentum into a win over the Wizards in Game 1.
I still think a lot of people are questioning the Pacers right now and as a result I think Indiana is showing some great value at home. In the two regular season matchups between these two teams at the Fieldhouse, Indiana won and won easily. Both victories came by at least 20-points and the Wizards scored just 139 points in the two games combined.
Indiana's defense really stepped in those last two games against the Hawks and that strong play on the defensive side of the ball sets up the Pacers in a favorable spot. Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, 42+ games into the season, with an average offense (92-98 ppg) against a poor defensive team (98-102 ppg) after allowing 85 points or less in their last game are 80-41 ATS since 1996. That's a 61% long-term system in favor of the Pacers!
|05-04-14||Dallas Mavericks v. San Antonio Spurs -6.5||96-119||Win||100||5 h 47 m||Show|
4* NBA Playoffs No Brainer on Spurs -6.5
My money is on the Spurs to take care of business and cover the spread at home in Game 7. San Antonio is the better team and I believe they are going to turn what most are expecting to be a close game into a blowout.
The fact that San Antonio is favored by 6.5-points says a lot. The Spurs haven't covered a single game in this series and there's little doubt the public will take the points in this spot. Anytime it feels like the books have set a bad line, it's usually a good idea to go against the obvious choice.
There's no denying the Maverick's ability to score the basketball, but in a Game 7 in the playoffs it's about which team can dominant on the defensive end of the floor. I don't think there's any question that San Antonio is the stronger team on that side of the ball, which is a big reason why I like the Spurs to win and cover at home.
There's also a strong system in play. Favorites who are shooting 47.5% or better from the field against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, average rebounding team (+/-3 Reb/G) against a poor rebounding team (-3 to -5.5 Reb/G) - 42+ have won 62% of the time since 1996!
|05-03-14||MEMPHIS GM7 v. OKLAHOMA CITY GM7 -9||109-120||Win||100||10 h 29 m||Show|
3* NBA Playoffs No Doubt Rout on Thunder -
The Grizzlies have no chance of keeping this one close. Memphis will be without leading scorer Zach Randolph, who is suspended after throwing a punch at Oklahoma City's Steven Adams in Game 6. On top of that, starting point guard Mike Conley will be playing at less than 100% with a bum hamstring.
It's hard enough for road teams to win Game 7, but I just don't see anyway the Grizzlies keep this close without Randolph and a healthy Conley running the point. I look for Oklahoma City to jump all over Memphis early and as we saw in the Grizzlies' 20-point home loss in Game 6, they are not equipped to rally from a huge deficit.
Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a home loss and revenging a defeat of 10 or more points are just 31-58 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 65% system in favor of the Thunder!
|05-02-14||Houston Rockets v. Portland Trail Blazers -3.5||Top||98-99||Loss||-110||31 h 25 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Trail Blazers -
I look for the Trail Blazers to close out the series at home tonight, making them an easy play as a 3.5-point favorite. I wasn't surprised to see the Rockets avoid elimination at home, but I just don't see Houston being able to play at the level in Portland.
The Trail Blazers only lost that game by 10-points, which is pretty shocking considering they only got 8-points out of their All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge. The same guy that came into that contest averaging 35.3 ppg in the series. I look for Aldridge to bounce back in style and for the rest of the players to continue to play well.
Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are revenging a road loss to an opponent of 10 or more points in a matchup of two good teams are 118-70 ATS since 1996. That's a 63% system in favor of the Trail Blazers! Adding to this is the fact that Houston is just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games after a win by 10 or more points and just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games after successfully covering the spread in 2 more consecutive games!
|05-01-14||Indiana Pacers v. Atlanta Hawks +1.5||95-88||Loss||-110||54 h 45 m||Show|
3* Hawks/Pacers NBA Playoffs Main Event on Hawks +
Atlanta is not only a difficult matchup for the Pacers, but this Indiana team has completely fallen apart down the stretch. What made the Pacers such a great team was their effort and chemistry, but that was lost when Roy Hibbert opened his big mouth and called his teammates selfish. After watching this team fall behind by 30-points at home in crucial Game 5, I just don't think there's any recovering.
Oddsmakers are all but begging for action on the Pacers with this line, which only strengthens my thought that the Hawks are going to finish the job and close out this series at home. Atlanta should have won both matchups at home, but the Pacers were able to steal a victory in Game 4. Indiana's not going to be so fortunate this time around and I wouldn't be surprised if the Hawks won in convincing fashion.
The hot shooting of Atlanta is a big positive going into Game 6, as the Hawks are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games after making 50% or more of their 3-point attempts. Atlanta is also a dominant 12-4 ATS this season after a win by 10 or more points. Indiana on the other hand is just 9-19 ATS in the 2nd half of the season against teams who are averaging 99+ points/game. These three trends combine to form a massive 72% (48-19) system in favor of the Hawks!
|05-01-14||Indiana Pacers v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 188||Top||95-88||Win||100||54 h 43 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs Eastern Conference Total of the Month on Hawks/Pacers UNDER
The fate of the Pacers season rest on this game and I expect their defense to show up after allowing the Hawks to shoot 50% from the field in Game 5. Keep in mind that Indiana had held Atlanta under 40% shooting in each of the previous three games and all three of those contests finished under the total.
In the two games in this series played at Atlanta, the most these two teams have combined to score is just 183 points. In fact, each of the last 5 meetings, including the regular season, have all been extremely low scoring (184 or less) when these two teams play at Philips Arena.
It doesn't come as a huge surprise, as the UNDER is 21-9 in the Hawks last 30 home games against good defensive teams that are holding opponents to 43% or less shooting. The UNDER is also 16-5 in Atlanta's last 21 home games in the 2nd half of the season against teams with a winning record. These two massive trends combine to form a huge 73% (37-14) system in favor of the UNDER!
|04-30-14||Portland Trailblazers v. Houston Rockets -5.5||98-108||Win||100||32 h 26 m||Show|
3* Rockets/Trail Blazers NBA Playoffs Late Night Bailout on Rockets -
While the Trail Blazers have a commanding 3-1 series lead, I fully expect the Rockets to stay alive with a relatively easy win at home in Game 5.
Despite the fact that Harden is averaging 27.5 ppg in the series, he's shooting just 35% from the field and is a horrific 26.8% from behind the 3-point line. He's simply too good of a player to keep playing at this level and I'll take my chances he delivers a huge performance when it matters the most.
The other thing to keep in mind is that this series could just as easily be tied at 2-2 or even a 3-1 Houston edge, as two of the Trail Blazers three wins have come in overtime. I'm not convinced that Portland will be able to win three straight at the Toyota Center, which is a big reason why I'm fine laying the 5.5-points. Keep in mind that Houston had lost just 8-times all season at home during the regular season. Even with the two losses in this series, they are still winning on average at home by 8.4 ppg.
History also suggests that Portland will struggle in this matchup. The Trail Blazers are just 5-15 ATS after two straight games with a combined score of 215 or more points and 8-20 after two straight games where both teams scored 100+. The Rockets on the other hand are 32-18 ATS at home after their last game went over the total and 16-7 ATS in their last 23 after allowing 100+ in 3 straight games. Combined that's a massive 69% (83-38) system in favor of the Rockets!
|04-29-14||Washington Wizards v. Chicago Bulls -4.5||75-69||Loss||-102||30 h 3 m||Show|
4* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Bulls -
Chicago is one team that won't quit no matter the circumstances. They still believe they can win this series. I don't know if the Bulls can win three straight, but a definitely like them to win and cover at home in Game 5. The Wizards have some veteran players on their roster, but a lot of these guys don't have experience closing out a series, which is even a harder to do on the road. There's also some concern with Washington coming in a little over-confident after that easy win in Game 4.
Chicago is one of the better teams in the league when it comes to rebounding from a loss. The Bulls are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games following a SU loss and 26-16 ATS this season when revenging a loss to the same opponent. It's also worth noting that Washington head coach Randy Wittman is just 17-33 ATS on the road when his team has covered the spread in 3 of their last 4 games. These three trends combine to form a 65% (74-39-1) system in favor of the Bulls!
|04-28-14||Atlanta Hawks v. Indiana Pacers -6.5||107-97||Loss||-109||10 h 52 m||Show|
3* NBA No Doubt Rout on Pacers -
|04-28-14||Miami Heat -7.5 v. Charlotte Bobcats||109-98||Win||100||9 h 50 m||Show|
3* NBA Playoffs Main Event on Heat -
|04-27-14||HOUSTON GM4 v. PORTLAND GM4 -2||120-123||Win||100||12 h 52 m||Show|
4* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Trail Blazers -
The Rockets were fortunate to avoid falling behind 3-0 in the series, as Troy Daniels saved their season. Portland has looked like the better team so far, yet we find them laying just 2.5-points at home. The Trail Blazers lost just 10 games at home during the entire regular season. You have to think there's a better chance they win Game 4 than drop two straight at home.
Portland is 21-9 ATS in their last 30 games revenging a loss where the opponent scored 100 or more points, while Houston is just 6-17 ATS in their last 23 road games after allowing 105 points or more in 2 straight games. We also see that home teams who have won 60% to 75% of their games, with a line of +3 to -3 off an upset loss as a favorite are 79-39 ATS since 1996 when playing a team with a winning record. That's a 67% system in favor of the Trail Blazers!
|04-26-14||San Antonio Spurs v. Dallas Mavericks UNDER 202||108-109||Loss||-110||7 h 41 m||Show|
3* NBA Playoffs Total Annihilator on Mavericks/Spurs UNDER
The books have set the mark too high in Game 3 between the Spurs and Mavericks. While these two teams combined for 205 points in Game 2, that was with both teams shooting extremely well from the field. Dallas shot 48.9%, while the Spurs connected on exactly 50% of their attempts. The thing to keep in mind is that these two teams are now very familiar with one another by this point and let's not forget the combined for a mere 175 points in Game 1.
The UNDER is 90-58 in the Spurs last 148 games when they are revenging a straight up loss to an opponent as a favorite and the average total in these games is just 187.2 points. The UNDER is also 6-1 in San Antonio's last 7 games after allowing 100 or more points and 5-1 in the Mavericks' last 6 after they scored 100 or points last time out.
The UNDER is 68-30 in Game 3 of a playoff series with a total set at 200 or more points and 42-14 since 1996 when this takes place in the first round. That's a 75% system in favor of the UNDER!
|04-25-14||Toronto Raptors v. Brooklyn Nets -5||98-102||Loss||-101||21 h 59 m||Show|
4* NBA Playoffs No Brainer on Nets -
The Nets could have easily won both games in Toronto. They had a 8-point lead going into the 4th quarter of Game 2, before completely falling apart defensively. Brooklyn allowed Toronto to put up 36-points in the final 12 minutes. While it was a disappointing loss, I look that poor finish to light a fire under the Nets at home.
Brooklyn finished the regular season a solid 28-13 at home, but were even stronger than that down the stretch. The Nets went 15-2 over their final 17 games at the Barclays Center. Not only have they been winning, but most importantly they have been covering the spread. Brooklyn is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games and a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning record. The Raptors don't exactly have a history of playing well on the road in the playoffs. Toronto has lost 12 straight away from home in the postseason.
The Nets have also responded well from a loss on the road against the same opponent. Brooklyn is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games revenging a road loss. Toronto on the other hand is 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team who has won more than 60% of their games at home. If you add up all the trends mentioned, it combines to form a rock solid 81% (39-9-1) system in favor of the Nets!
|04-24-14||Los Angeles Clippers v. Golden State Warriors +1.5||98-96||Loss||-102||11 h 27 m||Show|
3* NBA Playoffs No Doubt Rout on Warriors +
|04-24-14||Indiana Pacers v. Atlanta Hawks +2.5||85-98||Win||100||8 h 46 m||Show|
4* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Hawks +
|04-23-14||Portland Trailblazers v. Houston Rockets -6||112-105||Loss||-107||12 h 39 m||Show|
3* NBA Playoffs No Doubt Rout on Rockets -
There's a solid system in play favoring Houston. Teams who have scored 100 points or more in 4 straight games (Rockets) in a contest involving two horrible defense teams (102+ ppg) are 83-54 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 61% system in favor of Houston!
|04-22-14||Washington Wizards v. Chicago Bulls -5||Top||101-99||Loss||-115||10 h 48 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Bulls -
The Bulls let Game 1 get away from them, as they managed to blow a 13-point second half lead. Even with the loss, I still feel like Chicago is the better team and I fully expect them to bounce back with a dominating performance in Game 2. The Wizards will be content with going back to Washington tied 1-1, which will make it difficult for them to match the intensity of the Bulls in this one.
I'm also confident the Bulls won't allow the Wizards to top 100 points and shoot 48.6% from the field like they did in Game 1. No team is better on the defensive end than Chicago. Tom Thibodeau and his staff will make the proper adjustments. Keep in mind that in the final regular season meeting the Bulls held Washington to just 78 points on 39.5% shooting.
Few teams are as good as the Bulls at bouncing back from a loss. Chicago is 25-15 ATS revenging a loss to an opponent this season and 27-13 ATS in their last 40 games off a home loss. The Bulls are also a dominant 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing 100 or more points in their last contest!
|04-22-14||Brooklyn Nets v. Toronto Raptors -4.5||95-100||Win||100||8 h 50 m||Show|
3* NBA Playoffs Main Event on Raptors -
Toronto found themselves down 8-points after the 1st quarter and while they were able to fight back that early hole proved to be too much in the end. Keep in mind that the Raptors were making their first playoff appearance in six years. It's not a huge surprise to see them come out sluggish in Game 1. With a better understanding of what to expect, I look for a completely different Toronto team to take the floor in Game 2.
Toronto is 17-5-1 ATS in their last 23 games following a SU loss, while the Nets are a mere 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. The Raptors are also a dominant 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games after forcing 8 or fewer turnovers in their last game. Combined that's a 82.5% (32-7-1) system in favor of the Raptors!
|04-22-14||Atlanta Hawks v. Indiana Pacers -7.5||85-101||Win||100||7 h 19 m||Show|
3* NBA Playoffs No Doubt Rout on Pacers -
Atlanta is just 3-11 ATS when playing with 2 days of rest and will find it difficult to not relax in Game 2. They came into Indiana hoping for a split and with that already in the bag, I see a huge letdown coming tonight. You also have to keep in mind that the Pacers are the better team and if they respond like they should, there's no reason they won't win this game by double-digits. Indiana is 23-11 ATS over the last two seasons at home off a loss in their last game and have won these contests by an average of 10.2 ppg!
|04-21-14||Golden State Warriors v. Los Angeles Clippers -7.5||Top||98-138||Win||100||12 h 52 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs First Round Game of the Year on Clippers -
The Warriors stunned the Clippers in Game 1 of the series, as they came away with a 109-105 road win. However, I'm not convinced Golden State will be able to match that performance in Game 2.
Blake Griffin played just 19 minutes because of foul trouble. Griffin is the most important player for Los Angeles and not having him on the floor completely changed the dynamics of that game. One of the big advantages the Clippers have in this series with the Warriors missing Andrew Bogut is their size. The fact that Griffin was able to score 16 points with 3 rebounds and 3 assists in such a limited amount of time, really says a lot about the impact he can have on the game. Not only can we expect Griffin to dominate in Game 2, but Jamal Crawford figures to play a bigger role after going just 2-11 from the field in 22 minutes off the bench.
|04-20-14||PORTLAND GM1 v. HOUSTON GM1 OVER 214||122-120||Win||100||12 h 50 m||Show|
3* NBA Playoffs Total Dominator on Rockets/Blazers OVER -
I know the playoffs are suppose to bring out the best in teams defensively, but there's simply too much offensive fire-power between the Rockets and Trail Blazers. Houston finished 2nd in scoring at 107.7 ppg, while Portland was 4th at 106.7 ppg.
The big key here is that both teams love to play at a fast pace, which should have both teams flying over their season averages. Oddsmakers simply didn't set the bar high enough with this number. In the season series the fewest these two combined to score was 215 points and that was with the two combining to go 13 for 47 (27.7%) from the 3-point line.
The OVER is 10-1 in the Trail Blazers last 11 games against a team with a winning percentage between 60% to 70% and 8-1 in the Rockets last 9 in the same situation. It's also 12-3 in Portland's 15 games this season versus teams who attempt 27 or more free throws per game and 14-4 in the Rockets last 18 games in the 2nd half against teams who average 83 or more shots/game. Total that's a 44-9 (83%) system in favor of the OVER!
|04-20-14||Washington Wizards v. Chicago Bulls -4.5||102-93||Loss||-110||9 h 9 m||Show|
4* NBA Playoffs No Brainer on Bulls -
The Bulls are a team nobody wants to face in the playoffs and I like how they matchup with the Wizards. Keep in mind that the only reason Washington is the No. 5 seed, is because the Nets purposely fell back to No. 6. Chicago lost the first two games of the season series, but in the most recent matchup they embarrassed the Wizards 96-78 on their home floor. Washington shot just 39.5% from the field and were sitting on just 26-points at the half. That's what Chicago's defense can do to teams and I look for the Bulls' defense to really make life miserable for the Wizards in this series.
Energy is everything for the Bulls and they will have plenty of at home in the first game of the series. Chicago is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing with 3 or more days rest. Joakim Noah, who has carried this team down the stretch with his play, will be playing even harder than normal after the recent death of his mentor Tyrone Green. Not only do I expect a big effort out of Noah, but I look for the rest of the Bulls players to rally around the potential Defensive Player of the Year.
|04-19-14||Golden State Warriors v. Los Angeles Clippers OVER 210.5||109-105||Win||100||5 h 26 m||Show|
4* NBA Playoffs Total Annihilator on Clippers/Warriors OVER
I know playoff games have a strong tendency to go UNDER the total, but I don't think the books have set the bar high enough for the Clippers and Warriors. Los Angeles led the NBA in scoring at 107.9 ppg and the Warriors were 10th at 104.3 ppg. If the two teams were to simply put up their average, we would be over the total by 1-point.
That might not seem like a lot of value, but you have to remember the Warriors are without Andrew Bogut, who is one of the top rim protectors in the league and a huge reason why Golden State finished 10th in scoring defense (99.5 ppg). Without Bogut the Warriors are going to have to play a smaller lineup, which I believe is going to force them to rely even more on the outside shot and play at a faster pace to try and get some easy baskets in transition. The Clippers love to play up-tempo and I look for them to score at will against the Warriors at home.
The OVER is 14-4 in the Clippers last 18 home games in the month of April, 5-1 in their last 6 first round playoff games, 19-7 in their last 26 home games versus a team with a winning record and 12-4 when they are playing a team who won more than 60% of their games. It's also 4-1 in the Warriors last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. That's a 76% (54-17) Massive System in favor of the OVER!
|04-19-14||Brooklyn Nets v. Toronto Raptors -3||Top||94-87||Loss||-109||2 h 25 m||Show|
5* NBA Playoffs First Round Vegas Insider on Raptors -
The Raptors are showing great value as a small home favorite against the Nets. Brooklyn is getting a little too much love right now. The Nets were not a great team away from home. They finished just 16-25 straight up on the road and were a mere 1-6 ATS in their last 7. Toronto has won 8 of their last 10 home games and are 11-4-2 ATS in their last 17 home games versus a team that has won less than 40% of their games on the road.
Toronto lost at home in the first meeting 100-102, but they came back and crushed the Nets at the Air Canada Centre 96-80 back in early January. Brooklyn won the final matchup between these two teams during the regular season by a score of just 101-97 at home. Toronto is 45-29 ATS over the last 3 seasons revenging a road loss.
The Raptors were stronger both offensively and defensively during the regular season. Brooklyn ranked just 21st in scoring (98.5 ppg) and were 11th in points allowed (99.5 ppg). Toronto on the other hand ranked 13th in scoring (101.3 ppg) and 7th in points allowed (98.0).
One of the reasons I think we are getting such great value on the Raptors is they went just 1-5 ATS over their last 6 games, including back-to-back non-covers to close out the regular season. Toronto is a dominant 31-14 ATS in their last 45 games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games.
|04-16-14||Philadelphia 76ers +5 v. Miami Heat||100-87||Win||100||7 h 2 m||Show|
3* NBA No Doubt Rout on 76ers +
This game means absolutely nothing to the Heat and they are expected to rest both LeBron James and Chris Bosh. I would also expect Miami to limit the rest of the starters' minutes. The only reason Miami is favored in this game is because they are playing the 76ers, who are one of the most difficult teams in the league to back no matter what the spread. I believe this has created exceptional value on Philadelphia, who have a more than legit shot at winning this game outright. Keep in mind the 76ers beat Miami earlier this season with both Bosh and James playing 30+ minutes a piece.
Philadelphia is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 versus the Eastern Conference, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 overall. Miami is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games and 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team that has won less than 40% of their road games!
|04-14-14||Memphis Grizzlies v. Phoenix Suns -2.5||97-91||Loss||-108||11 h 39 m||Show|
3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Suns -
The Suns need to win this game to keep their hopes of making the playoffs alive. Phoenix can pull even with the Grizzlies in the standings with a win. While Memphis would secure the 8th and final spot with a victory, they still have a pretty good shot at making the playoffs even with a loss. Due to the fact that the Grizzlies have won each of the previous three meetings against Phoenix this season, Memphis holds the tiebreaker and would simply need to beat the Mavericks at home on Wednesday.
I'm not saying the Grizzlies won't take this game seriously, but they aren't in the best of scheduling spots. Memphis had to play last night in Los Angeles and both Marc Gasol (36) and Mike Conley (34) played big minutes. With the tempo that Phoenix likes to play at, I could see the Grizzlies coming out flat and lacking some intensity on the defensive end. Keep in mind that Memphis is just 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 following a SU win, 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 road games and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 road games versus a team with a winning home record.
Phoenix hasn't played since Saturday and are a dominant 36-14-1 ATS in their last 51 games when playing on 1 day of rest. The Suns are also 25-10 ATS in their last 35 following a SU loss and 14-5 ATS in their last 19 when they come in having failed to cover the spread in two of their last 3. Adding to this is the fact that the Grizzlies are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 after playing their last game as a road favorite, while the Suns are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 after playing their last game as a road underdog.
|04-14-14||Los Angeles Lakers v. Utah Jazz -5.5||119-104||Loss||-105||10 h 39 m||Show|
4* NBA Vegas Insider on Jazz -
It's been a difficult season for the Jazz, but I look for them to come out and play extremely hard in their home finale tonight against the Lakers. With a win Utah can also pull even with Los Angeles for the worst record in the Western Conference. The Jazz are a respectable 16-24 at home for a team that has won just 24 games all season.
The Lakers are equally as bad as Utah, but the big key here is that Los Angeles will be playing in the second game of a back-to-back set in the thin air of Salt Lake City. I just don't see the Lakers coming out with any energy or interest in this game, as they put a lot of effort into last night's game against the Grizzlies.
Utah has taken 2 of 3 against the Lakers this season, including a 96-79 blowout win in Los Angeles in the most recent meeting. That combined with the Lakers 12-point loss to Memphis last night set up a favorable system to fade Los Angeles. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are revenging a home loss of 10+ points and off a home loss by 10+ in their last game are just 31-61 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 66% system in favor of the Jazz!
|04-13-14||Toronto Raptors -6.5 v. Detroit Pistons||116-107||Win||100||6 h 58 m||Show|
3* NBA No Doubt Rout on Raptors -
While the Raptors recently clinched the Atlantic Division title, I look for them to come out strong against the Pistons. Toronto is a game back of Chicago for 3rd place and there's a big difference between finishing 3rd and 4th. Right now the Raptors would have to open up against the surging Nets and then face off against the Heat if they were able to advance to the 2nd round. Regardless if they catch the Bulls or not, the key here is that Toronto should show up.
Detroit on the other hand has absolutely nothing to play for and with the Raptors only playing for seeding, there's not a lot of reason for the Pistons to get excited about this game. Hard for me to believe a team that is completely out of it would be interested in an early afternoon game on a Sunday. Keep in mind that Detroit is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played on a Sunday.
One of the big keys here is that the Pistons don't play a whole lot of defense. Detroit is allowing 110.0 ppg over their last 5. Bad defensive teams tend to struggle down the stretch. Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are allowing 99+ ppg on the season are just 37-72 ATS in the month of April over the last 5 years. That's a 66% system in favor of the Raptors!
|04-12-14||Utah Jazz v. Denver Nuggets -9.5||94-101||Loss||-110||12 h 43 m||Show|
4* NBA Vegas Insider on Nuggets -
The Nuggets may be out of the playoff race, but they have continued to play hard down the stretch and as a result are an impressive 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games. While Denver is just 3-6 SU in their last 9 games, it's worth noting that all six of those defeats came against teams who are currently in the playoff race. In fact their only game against a non-playoff contender during that stretch was versus the Pelicans at home. The Nuggets won that contest 137-107.
I don't see Denver having any problem beating the Jazz by double-digits. Utah is just 2-14 over their last 16 games and for the most part have not been competitive. The Jazz find themselves in the second game of a back-to-back set and this can be a very difficult spot for a bad team at this point in the season. Utah has no reason to get motivated for this game, as they have won each of the previous two matchups against the Nuggets. The Jazz are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games versus a team with a winning home record and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 when playing on no rest.
There's also a strong system favoring the Nuggets. A marginal losing team (40%-49%) who has gone over the total by 42 or more points in their last 7 seven games are 53-24 ATS over the last 5 seasons versus a bad team (25%-40%). That's a 69% system in favor of Denver!
|04-11-14||Charlotte Bobcats -5 v. Boston Celtics||103-106||Loss||-110||10 h 20 m||Show|
4* NBA No Brainer on Bobcats -
This is a great price to get the surging Bobcats against the free falling Celtics. Charlotte has won five straight and are now 6th in the Eastern Conference standings. A spot they would like to keep, as they would avoid a first round matchup against either Miami or Indiana. Boston on the other hand has lost 9 straight and 14 of their last 15 overall.
Because the Bobcats were so bad a year ago, the public still has a difficult time getting behind this team. They have been showing great value just about every time they take the floor, which is why they are an impressive 46-29 ATS on the season. Charlotte has really added to this of late, going 12-3 ATS over their last 15 games. While they did lose 86-96 at home to the Celtics in the most recent meeting, they were able to come away with a 89-83 victory in their only trip to Boston this season. It's also worth mentioning that the loss to the Celtics was way back on Nov. 25 when they weren't playing very well.
Charlotte is 17-8 ATS revenging a loss of 10 or more points this season. The Bobcats also come in off a full two days rest and will be playing just their third game in the last seven days. Charlotte is 14-6 ATS when playing just their 2nd game in a span of 5 days. It's also worth noting that the Bobcats are 16-2 ATS in the second half of the season versus up-tempo teams who average 83 or more shots /game.
Key system telling us to fade Boston. Home teams off 6 or more consecutive losses in the month of April are just 8-29 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 78% system in favor of the Bobcats!
|04-09-14||Sacramento Kings v. Portland Trail Blazers -13||99-100||Loss||-105||9 h 27 m||Show|
3* NBA No Doubt Rout on Trail Blazers -
I'm not worried about the massive line in this one. This is a perfect spot to fade the Kings, who just played a huge game last night at home against Oklahoma City. I just don't see a horrible team like Sacramento coming out strong on the road with no rest at this point in the season. Making matters even worse is the Kings are expected to once again be without starting point guard Isaiah Thomas and could also be missing Rudy Gay (questionable).
It's no secret that the Trail Blazers are at their best at home. Portland is 28-10 at home, compared to just 22-18 on the road. There's still an outside chance that the Blazers could catch 4th place Houston, which would give them the home court edge in the first round of the playoffs. That should be more than enough motivation for Portland to make easy work of the Kings. Keep in mind the last time Sacramento went on the road, they were annihilated by 33-points at Golden State.
Portland is 19-9 ATS when playing just their 4th game in 10 days over the last 2 seasons. The Trail Blazers will also be out for revenge as they fell 119-123 in Sacramento in the most recent matchup. Portland is 19-7 ATS this season when revenging a loss where the opponent scored 100 or more points. Combined that's a 70% (38-16) system favoring a Trail Blazers cover!
|04-09-14||Miami Heat v. Memphis Grizzlies -4||102-107||Win||100||7 h 25 m||Show|
4* NBA No Limit ATS Annihilator on Grizzlies -
I think this is a great spot to fade the Heat. Miami has lost two of their last overall, including an upset loss at home to the Nets last night. While most would expect the Heat to rebound, you have to keep in mind that they will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and their 3rd game in the last 4 days overall. That's becomes even more of a problem for Miami when you factor in that Memphis is playing on a full 2 days rest and just their 2nd game in the last 5 days overall.
While Miami is playing for home-court in the East, they have a .5-game lead over the Pacers and Indiana is starting to rest some of their key players. I don't believe this game is as important to the Heat as most think. As for the Grizzlies, their season is pretty much on the line. Memphis is 1-game back of 8th place Phoenix for the final spot in the Western Conference playoffs and have just 5 games left to make up the ground.
Even if Miami does show up, I still like the Grizzlies to win and cover. Memphis has won 11 straight at home. Last time the Heat visited FedEx Forum the Grizzlies won convincingly 104-86.
Miami just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games versus the Western Conference, while the Grizzlies are 37-15 ATS in their last 52 home games against a team with a winning road record and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 games playing on 2 days of rest. Combined that's a 73% (47-17) system favoring a Memphis cover!
|04-09-14||Chicago Bulls -3 v. Minnesota Timberwolves||Top||102-87||Win||100||7 h 25 m||Show|
5* Non-Conference Game of the Month on Bulls -
|04-08-14||Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5 v. Sacramento Kings||107-92||Loss||-105||13 h 56 m||Show|
3* NBA No Doubt Rout on Thunder -
I look for the Thunder to be all business when they take the floor against the Kings tonight. Oklahoma City comes into this game having lost 2 straight and are in danger of falling out of the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference. The Thunder are just one game ahead of the Clippers with six games to play.
The good news is that Oklahoma City should have no trouble turning tonight's matchup against Sacramento into a blowout. The Kings have absolutely nothing to play for and to make matters worse they will be without point guard Isaiah Thomas, who is averaging 20.7 points and 6.4 assists on the year. In the two most recent meetings against the Kings, the Thunder have won by 13 and 15 points.
Oklahoma City is 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games when they come in having failed to cover the number in 2 out of their last 3 games, 15-6-1 in their last 22 games when playing on a full days rest and 20-8 ATS in their last 28 off an upset loss as a road favorite. Add it up and that's a 53-21-1 (72%) system in favor of the Thunder! We also see that home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are revenging a loss to an opponent, after covering the spread but losing their last game outright as an underdog are just 41-84 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's another 67% system in favor of Oklahoma City!
|04-07-14||Kentucky -2.5 v. Connecticut||54-60||Loss||-105||11 h 27 m||Show|
4* NCAA Championship Game No Brainer on Kentucky -
You could argue that the Wildcats are lucky to be in the championship game, but the simple fact is this team just keeps on finding ways to win games. Kentucky has now knocked off the likes of Wichita State, Louisville, Michigan and Wisconsin in their last four games.
Not to take anything away from what Connecticut has done, but this is by far the most talented team they have faced in the tournament. They are just as talented and as strong defensively as Florida, but with far more offensive weapons. I look for the Wildcats to really pick apart the Huskies inside. On the other side of the ball, I look for Kentucky's athleticism to really make life difficult for Shabazz Napier and the rest of UConn's players.
Connecticut does a solid job of taking care of the basketball, but Kentucky is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games versus teams who commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game. The Wildcats are excellent at drawing fouls, which not only gets them to the line, but can cause problems for the opposition with foul trouble. The Huskies have not fared well against similar teams, as they are just 3-12 in their last 15 versus teams who average 28 or more free throw attempts per game.
Kentucky is 13-2 ATS in their last 15 following 2 straight wins by 6 points or less, while Connecticut is just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 60 points or less in two consecutive games and 1-12 ATS after 4 or more consecutive wins. Combined that's a 34-4 (89%) system in favor of the Wildcats!
|04-06-14||New York Knicks v. Miami Heat UNDER 188.5||91-102||Loss||-110||4 h 33 m||Show|
4* NBA Total No Brainer on Knicks/Heat UNDER
I look for Sunday's showdown between the Knicks and Heat to finish well below the posted total. I expect both teams to bring the defensive intensity. New York desperately needs this game, as they are one game back of Atlanta for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference with just 5 games left on the schedule. Miami on the other hand is tied with the Pacers for the top spot. Adding some value to the UNDER is the fact that this game will tip off at 1:00 EST, which could have the offenses coming out flat with the early start time.
Both of these teams come in playing extremely well defensively. The Knicks are allowing just 90.0 ppg over their last 5 and the Heat are only giving up 85.4 over their last 5. Oddsmakers have pretty much informed us that the game will be a defensive battle. Despite the fact that these two teams have combined for at least 190 points in each of three previous meetings (no total was lower than 197.5 for the game), we have a total for this one set below 190. They are clearly trying to get money on the over and I'm showing just over 60% of the bets right now being placed on the over.
The UNDER is 15-5 in the Knicks last 20 games versus teams with a winning record and 5-0 in their last 5 overall. It's also a perfect 6-0 in the Heat's last 6 versus a team with a losing record and 10-2 in their last 12 off a SU loss. Combined that's a 36-7 (84%) angle favoring this game to finish below the mark.
|04-05-14||Kentucky v. Wisconsin +2||74-73||Win||100||36 h 35 m||Show|
4* Final Four Vegas Insider on Wisconsin +2
Not to take anything away from what Kentucky has done to this point, but the Badgers should not be an underdog in this matchup. Wisconsin is a perfect 17-0 in non-conference games this season. They are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 outside the Big 10 and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games played on a neutral setting.
There's a lot of talk about Kentucky and their talented freshman, but I feel that youth is going to haunt them against a well-coached Wisconsin team that is adapt to playing against all different styles. The fact that Bo Ryan gets extra time to prepare for the Wildcats, is a huge advantage for the Badgers. At the same time I think the time off could hurt Kentucky, who are just 13-25 ATS over the last 3 seasons when playing just their 2nd game in 8 days.
Two things that Kentucky has done extremely well is get to the foul line and create second chance opportunities with offensive rebounds. While I could see the Badgers having some trouble keeping the Wildcats off the glass, they aren't going to allow Kentucky easy points at the free throw line. Wisconsin is only giving up 15 free throw attempts per game on the season and are 24-7 ATS at least 15 games into the season against teams who average 25 or more free throw attempts since 1997! That's a 77% long-term system in our pocket. It's also worth noting that the Badgers are a solid 40-22 ATS in their last 62 games versus teams averaging 40 or more rebounds/game.
One final trend that supports the Badgers. Wisconsin is a perfect 7-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament when they are a No. 4 seed or better and have won these contests by an average score of 69.9 to 56.7!
|04-05-14||Chicago Bulls v. Washington Wizards UNDER 183||96-78||Win||100||9 h 7 m||Show|
4* NBA Total Dominator on Bulls/Wizards UNDER
I expect a defensive battle tonight in Washington. Both these teams are fighting for playoff position. The Bulls are currently tied with the Raptors for 3rd in the East, while the Wizards are just 1.5-games back of 5th place Brooklyn and 2 games in front of 7th place Charlotte. Washington isn't as worried about catching the Nets as they are avoiding 7th and 8th, where they would have to face off against either Miami or Indiana in the first round.
Not only are these two of the better teams in the league in terms of defensive efficiency, but the big key is that neither look to push to the pace. Washington ranks 18th with an average of 95.6 possessions and the Bulls are way down there at 28th with just 92.8. I expect an even slower pace than what we normally see from these two, as both are in the second game of a back-to-back. On top of that, this will be Chicago's 5th game in the last 7 days and the Wizards 6th in the last 9 days.
The UNDER is 23-10 in the Bulls last 33 when playing on no rest, 16-6 in Chicago's last 22 with a line of +3 to -3, 17-7 in the Wizards last 24 when listed as a home favorite of 6 or less and 20-7 in Washington's last 27 in the second half of the season versus teams who have won between 51% to 60% of their games. Combined that's a 76-30 (72%) system!
|04-04-14||Oklahoma City Thunder v. Houston Rockets -2.5||107-111||Win||100||10 h 8 m||Show|
4* NBA Western Conference No Brainer on Rockets -
This is the perfect spot to fade the Thunder and take advantage of the Rockets laying just 2.5-points at home. Oklahoma City comes in off an impressive 106-94 win over the Spurs last night, snapping San Antonio's 19-game winning streak.
The key here is that I just don't see the Thunder coming out strong in the second game of a back-to-back set. They don't have a ton to play for in the standings, as they are 3-games back of the Spurs and 2.5 ahead of the Clippers. Oklahoma City will also be without starting point guard Russell Westbrook, who is not playing in the second game of back-to-backs.
Houston on the other hand has a lot at stake in this one. The Rockets desperately need to get things headed in the right direction after dropping three straight. Houston currently has homecourt in the first round of the playoffs, but are just 1-game ahead of 5th place Portland.
You also have to take into consideration how well the Rockets have been playing at home, where they are 29-8 on the season. Houston's 11-1 over their last 12 games at the Toyota Center. While the Rockets have lost all three matchups against the Thunder this season, home teams with a line of +3 to -3 that are playing with triple revenge versus an opponent who has covered the spread in each of their last two games are 68-35 ATS since 1996. That's a 66% long-term system favoring Houston to cover!
|04-04-14||Washington Wizards v. New York Knicks UNDER 196.5||90-89||Win||100||8 h 53 m||Show|
3* NBA Total Annihilator on Wizards/Knicks UNDER
Due to recent performances, I believe the bar has been set too high in this one. The Wizards put up 118 against the Celtics last time out, while the Knicks scored 110 against the Nets. Even with those offensive outburts, we see that Washington is only averaging 99.4 ppg over the their last 5 and New York putting up just 97.2 ppg over their last 5.
This is an important game for both teams. While the Wizards have clinched a playoff spot, they are currently sitting in 6th place, just 2 games ahead of Charlotte. The last thing they want to do is to fall back to 7th and have to play either Miami or Indiana in the first round. The Knicks on the other hand are fighting for their playoff lives. While they are technically ahead of the Hawks for the 8th and final spot, Atlanta has one fewer losses. With so much at stake, I expect both teams to bring it on the defensive end tonight.
There's also a strong system that supports a play on the UNDER. Since 1996 the UNDER has gone 23-4 in games with a total of 190 to 199.5 where the road team enters having scored 55 or more in the first half of two straight games against an opponent who scored 60 or more in the first half of their last contest. That's a 85% system in favor of the UNDER!
|04-03-14||Dallas Mavericks +4.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers||113-107||Win||100||12 h 33 m||Show|
4* NBA No Brainer on Mavericks +
The Mavericks will be treating every game down the stretch like it's a playoff game and I believe it has Dallas showing exceptional value as a 4.5-point dog against the Clippers tonight. Los Angeles has already clinched a playoff spot and are more focused on getting healthy than winning games right now.
This is also a big revenge spot for the Mavericks, who just recently lost at home to Los Angeles last Thursday. The fact that the Clippers just beat Dallas will make it that much harder to get excited about tonight's matchup.
The Clippers are expected to have Blake Griffin back tonight, but I wouldn't be surprised if they took it easy on their All-Star to make sure he's 100% come playoff time. They are still without one of their top scores and key reserve in Jamal Crawford, who means more to this team than a lot of people realize.
This is also a difficult scheduling spot for Los Angeles. They just played a up-tempo game last night at Phoenix and are returning home from a lengthy 5-game road trip. Overall this will be their 6th game in the last 9 days.
We find a solid system telling us to fade the Clippers. Home favorites who are outscoring opponents by 6+ points/game after allowing 110 or more in their last contest are just 50-89 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 64% system in favor of a Mavericks cover. Adding to this is the fact that Dallas is 23-13 ATS in their last 36 road games and 15-7 ATS in their last 22 road games when listed as an underdog.
|04-03-14||San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5||94-106||Win||100||9 h 48 m||Show|
3* NBA No Doubt Rout on Thunder -
With the Spurs playing in the second game of a back-to-back set and potentially resting some of their key players tonight, I look for Oklahoma City to put an end to San Antonio's 20-game winning streak.
Oklahoma City has been playing pretty well themselves, as they enter having won 6 of their last 7. Not only are the Spurs playing on consecutive nights, but this will be their 5th game in the last 7 days overall. The Thunder on the other hand are playing on a full 3-days rest.
It's not just scheduling that makes Oklahoma City a play tonight. The Thunder have dominated this series, winning 7 of the last 8, including a 111-105 road win over the Spurs in the most recent meeting on Jan. 22.
Those worried about the Spurs being out for revenge, will be happy to see that underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are revenging a home loss and fresh off a cover as a double-digit favorite are just 13-35 ATS since 1996. That's a 73% system in favor of the Thunder!
|04-03-14||Yale v. Murray State -7.5||57-65||Win||101||10 h 49 m||Show|
3* CIT Championship Main Event on Murray State -
I got Murray State cruising to an easy win at home in the CIT Championship Game. The Racers have had the luxury of hosting each of their last three opponents in the CIT and have won all three by at last 12-points, including a 23-point blowout win over Pacific in Tuesday's semifinal matchup.
Murray State is now 16-1 at home this season, where they are outscoring the opposition by just under 14 ppg. Yale has had an impressive run to the title game, winning each of their last three one the road. I just don't see the Bulldogs run continuing against a much stronger Murray State squad.
Not only is Yale in a tough spot, but they are expected to be without their best player in Justin Sears, who suffered a hand injury in the Bulldogs win over VMI on Tuesday. Sears leads the team in both scoring (16.9 ppg)and rebounding (6.9 rpg), plus he averages 1.2 steals and nearly 2 blocks a game. Without Sears leading the way, this one could get ugly quick for Yale against the Racers.
|04-02-14||Los Angeles Clippers v. Phoenix Suns -2.5||112-108||Loss||-110||12 h 1 m||Show|
3* NBA No Doubt Rout on Suns -
I'll gladly back the Suns at home as small favorite against the Clippers tonight. Los Angeles will be without two of their top scorers in All-Star forward Blake Griffin (24.0 ppg) and key reserve Jamal Crawford (18.6 ppg). You also have to keep in mind that the Clippers are also playing without both Danny Granger and J.J. Redick.
Without two of their top players and having already secured a winning record on their current 5-game road trip, I look for the Clippers to come out flat and uninterested. The Suns on the other hand will be all business, as Phoenix is in a dogfight for one of the final playoff spots in the West. The Suns are currently tied for 7th in the standings, but are just 1/2 game ahead of 9th place Dallas.
We also find the Suns in a huge motivational spot from their ugly 99-115 road loss to the Lakers last time out, which snapped a 6-game winning streak. Phoenix should also benefit from a full 2 days rest against the depleted Clippers, who are playing their 5th road game in 8 days.
Explosive offensive teams who are averaging 103+ ppg (Suns) that trailed in their previous game by 15+ points are 147-79 ATS since 1996. That's a 65% long-term system in favor of Phoenix. We also see that the Suns are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.
|04-02-14||Fresno State +1 v. Siena||89-75||Win||100||10 h 44 m||Show|
4* CBI Tournament Vegas Insider on Fresno State +
Fresno State was upset at home 57-61 in Game 1 of their best of 3 series against Siena in the CBI Championship. I still feel the Bulldogs are the better team, which makes them a strong play as a mere 1-point dog tonight.
If it wasn't for turnovers and offensive rebounds the Bulldogs would have likely won Game 1. Fresno State turned it over 16 times to Siena's 8 and allowed the Saints to grab 17 offensive rebounds. The Bulldogs were clearly the better team aside from those mental mistakes. They shot an impressive 48% from the field and held the Saints to a mere 33% shooting.
While both teams will be motivated when they take the floor, this is a do-or-die situation for Fresno State. Siena on the other hand can relax knowing that they don't have to win this game to keep their season alive.
Fresno State is 8-1 ATS in their last 8 when listed as a road underdog of 6 points or less and a perfect 7-0 revenging a straight up loss to an opponent as a home favorite. Combined that forms a 15-1 (94%) system in favor of the Bulldogs!
|04-01-14||Pacific v. Murray State -6||75-98||Win||100||11 h 27 m||Show|
3* College Insider Late Night Bailout on Murray State -
Murray State hasn't let a disappointing finish keep them from showing up in the College Insider Tournament. The Racers went 13-3 in the Ohio Valley during the regular season, with the three losses coming by a combined 13-points. Murray State then suffered a heartbreaking 83-86 defeat to Eastern Kentucky in the Ohio Valley Tournament.
The Racers opened the CIT with a 66-63 road win over Missouri State. They then returned home with convincing wins over Nebraska-Omaha (86-62) and Towson (85-73). Murray State is now 15-1 at home, where they have outscored opponents by just over 13.0 ppg.
While Pacific edged out Grand Canyon 69-67 on the road in their CIT opener, they have had their struggles away from home. In the Tigers last 8 road games they are 3-5 with four of those losses coming by double-digits. The other two wins on the road besides Grand Canyon came against San Diego and Loyola Marymount, who combined went 11-25 in the WCC.
Pacific is just 28-48 ATS in their last 76 road games when they come in having won 3 of their last 4. Murray State on the other hand is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games as a favorite and a perfect 6-0 ATS when listed as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season. The Racers are also a perfect 6-0 ATS this season at home after playing their last game at home.
|04-01-14||Houston Rockets v. Brooklyn Nets -3||96-105||Win||100||9 h 53 m||Show|
3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Nets -3
Solid value here on the Nets laying just 3-points at home against the Rockets. Brooklyn has won 13 straight at home and are a dominant 11-1 ATS over their last 12 at the Barclays Center. Houston is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games versus a team with a winning record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games against an opponent with a home winning percentage better than 60%.
We also find the Rockets playing at less than full strength. Houston is expected to be without All-Star center Dwight Howard and will once again not have guards Patrick Beverley or Ronnie Brewer available. We could also see forward Terrance Jones added to the list, who is questionable.
In their last game the Rockets lost 107-118 at home to the Clippers. The public will be expecting Houston to bounce back, but they are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 off a double-digit home defeat. We also ease the concern with the fact that the Rockets won 114-95 at home in the previous matchup against Brooklyn with the fact that the Nets are 13-5 ATS revenging a road loss this season.
Adding even more value to this is a strong system that supports both angles. Teams who are revenging a loss where they allowed 100 or more points and the opponent is off a home loss by 10 or more are 109-67 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 since 1996. That's a 62% system in favor of the Nets.
|03-31-14||Siena v. Fresno State -8||61-57||Loss||-109||12 h 55 m||Show|
3* CBI Championship Main Event on Fresno State -
I have the Bulldogs winning at home by double-digits in Game 1 of the CBI Championship Finals. Fresno State was a respectable 13-5 at home this season, where they outscored the opposition by nearly 10 ppg. Siena on the other hand was just 5-13 on the road. Each of the Saints three wins in the CBI all came at home, where they only lost 4 times all season.
Sieana's offense hasn't exactly been lighting up the scoreboard. The Saints are averaging just 60.3 ppg in the CBI. That's important to note, as Siena is just 1-8 in their last 9 road games after scoring 65 points or less in two straight games.
Fresno State is simply the better team and that's evident by the fact that they finished a respectable 9-9 in the Mountain West, compared to Siena's 11-9 record in the soft MAAC.
It's also worth mentioning that Siena's Rob Poole and guard Marquis Wright are both banged up. Poole & Wright are expected to play, but will likely be playing at less than 100%. Poole leads the Saints with 14.7 ppg and Wright averages 8.5 and a team-high 5.4 apg.
|03-31-14||Los Angeles Clippers -2.5 v. Minnesota Timberwolves||114-104||Win||100||8 h 29 m||Show|
4* NBA Heavy Hitter on Clippers -
Even with the Clippers expected to be without Blake Griffin (doubtful), I feel there is huge value here on Los Angeles as a mere 2.5-point favorite. The Clippers are 15-2 in their last 17 games overall and a perfect 3-0 this season versus the Timberwolves.
Minnesota is fresh off a 99-114 loss at Brooklyn, which has them a full 7-games back of the 8th and final spot in the Western Conference playoff race. While they aren't mathematically eliminated, they know their not playing past the regular season. The letdown from missing the playoffs should have the Timberwolves coming out flat over their final 10 games.
While the Clippers are safely in the playoffs, they are just 1.5-games back of the Thunder for the No. 2 seed. That's more than enough motivation to finish strong.
Road favorites off 2 or more consecutive road wins who have won at least 60% of their games are 40-22 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 65% system in favor of Los Angeles. The Clippers are also a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games when listed as a favorite off a road win as an underdog.
|03-31-14||San Antonio Spurs v. Indiana Pacers +4.5||103-77||Loss||-108||8 h 30 m||Show|
3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Pacers +4.5
The Pacers' are a league-best 33-4 at home this season and are showing exceptional value as a 4.5-point underdog. While the Pacers have lost two straight and four of five overall, each of those defeats came on the road. Indiana hasn't lost at home since March 4.
I'm confident the Pacers will show up in this one, as they should be extremely motivated to snap out of their funk and put an end to the Spurs 17-game winning streak. Even more reason to get up for this game is the fact that Indiana has lost 5 straight at home to San Antonio. You have to like that the Pacers didn't have any trouble getting past the Spurs in their previous meeting this season. Indiana came away with a 111-100 victory in San Antonio.
We find a solid system telling us to fade the Spurs. Teams revenging a loss where they allowed 110 or more points against an opponent who is fresh off an upset loss to a division rival are just 11-42 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 79% system in favor of the Pacers covering.
We also see that underdogs who have failed to cover the spread in at least 12 of their last 15 games against an opponent who has covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 are 39-13 ATS since 1996. That's a 75% system backing Indiana!
|03-30-14||Chicago Bulls -4.5 v. Boston Celtics||107-102||Win||100||8 h 28 m||Show|
3* Oddsmakers Error on Chicago Bulls -
The Chicago Bills are clearly the much better team in this matchup, and I don't think this line is giving them enough credit. Chicago may have clinched a playoff spot, but they are still playing to improve their position since they currently sit in fourth place in the East. Picking up a win over Boston would potentially move them into a tie for third with Toronto.
This biggest advantage Chicago has in this game is its outstanding defense. The Bulls have held opponents to a mere 91.9 points per game this season. They have an easy task at hand facing the offensively challenged Celtics tonight. Boston is averaging a mere 95.6 points per game, and they barely get a boost in production at home improving to just 95.8 points per game. Defensively Boston has been soft allowing 99.7 points per game. Over their last five games the Celtics have been even worse, surrendering 101.6 points per game.
This matchup fits into a system to play on road teams like Chicago when they have gone under the total by 36 or more points in their last five games and they have won 45 to 55 percent of their games overall on the season. This system has a 109-54 (67%) ATS record over the last five seasons. The Bulls come into this matchup with a 40-32 record which puts them right at 55 percent on the season. After a poor showing against Portland in their last outing I think the Bulls are coming into this matchup completely undervalued.
|03-30-14||Kentucky v. Michigan +2.5||75-72||Loss||-115||10 h 33 m||Show|
4* Vegas Insider on Michigan +
The Wildcats have put together a nice run in the NCAA Tournament, but that ends today against the underrated Michigan Wolverines. Michigan will be one of the best shooting teams the Wildcats have faced, and I don't think Kentucky's defense is good enough to slow them down. The Wolverines are making 47.7 percent of their attempts from the field, and an impressive 40.2 percent of their attempts from beyond the three point line.
The Wildcats receive a lot of credit for a young roster that is loaded with one-and-done caliber players. In a game of this magnitude I will take the Wolverines who have not only NBA caliber talent, but also the experience to go along with it. Michigan made a run at the championship last season, and they are hungry to get back into that game to prove they are worthy of a national championship. Nik Stauskas and Glen Robinson III are two of the best players in the country, and Kentucky will not have an answer for both of them.
Kentucky relies on a lot of its scoring coming from the free throw line. They average 29 free throw attempts per game. They will not have that luxury against a smart basketball team like Michigan because the Wolverines average only 14 personal fouls per game and have allowed opponents just 15 attempts from the line. Kentucky is 2-9 ATS in road or neutral court games against teams being called for 17 or less fouls per game. Michigan has been a great team to back in the postseason, posting a 19-8 ATS record in their last 27 games and I look for that trend to continue today.
|03-29-14||Wisconsin v. Arizona -2.5||64-63||Loss||-110||27 h 40 m||Show|
4* Vegas Insider on Arizona -
The Wildcats get a lot of credit for their defense, and it is well deserved. However, it is Arizona's scoring ability that gives them a big advantage over the Badgers. Arizona averages a respectable 73.1 points per game on the season, and they are +14.7 points in scoring differential. The defense ranks fifth in the country allowing 58.4 points per game, and after adjusting for strength of schedule you could make a strong argument that the Wildcats are the best in the nation.
The biggest advantage Arizona has in this matchup is its rebounding ability. The Wildcats average 38 rebounds per game to just 33 from the Badgers. On the offensive glass Arizona is pulling in 10 boards, to just eight from Wisconsin. Both of these teams are excellent ball control teams, and both of put up similar numbers on the offensive end of the court, but it is Arizona's defense and rebounding ability that makes them an easy call to advance to the Final Four.
The path to the Elite Eight has presented Arizona with several different types of challengers. Against Gonzaga the Wildcats were tasked with shutting down an explosive offense, and against San Diego State they had to get by a very tough defense. Arizona is 14-5 ATS in road or neutral court games against teams that are allowing less than 64 points per game so I don't expect the Wildcats to have any problem getting past Wisconsin. It is also worth noting that Arizona is 20-8 ATS in non-conference games over the last two seasons.
|03-29-14||Atlanta Hawks +5 v. Washington Wizards||97-101||Win||100||11 h 59 m||Show|
4* No Brainer on Atlanta Hawks +
The Washington Wizards need to be on upset alert tonight. Atlanta has played extremely well against the division this season. The Hawks average 104.2 points per game against division opponents, and they will face a Wizards defense that has been struggling recently allowing 101 points per game.
The Wizards are playing in a bad letdown spot. First of all, they are coming off an upset win as an underdog against the Indiana Pacers. They are also playing in the second half of a back-to-back situation while Atlanta has the luxury of coming into this matchup with a day of rest.
You should play on road teams averaging 98 to 102 points per game against a team allowing 98 to 102 points per game when they are coming off two or more games allowing 100 points or more. This system is 88-33 (73%) against the spread over the last five seasons. The Hawks have surrendered 100 plus in three straight games, but the oddsmakers have undervalued them in this matchup since offensively the team should score at-will against the Wizards.
|03-29-14||Los Angeles Clippers v. Houston Rockets -2||118-107||Loss||-110||11 h 58 m||Show|
3* No Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -
The Houston Rockets have one of the most explosive offensive attacks in the league. They are averaging 108.8 points per game at home, and over their last five games that number is an even more impressive 118.2 points per game. Houston is on fire coming into this matchup having won five consecutive games.
The Clippers may have won three of their last five games, but they have been getting far too much credit from the oddsmakers in those matchups. Los Angeles is just 1-4 against the spread in their last five. The Clippers defense is also in big trouble tonight against the Rockets. They have surrendered 101.2 points per game on the road, and 102.4 points per game over their last five games, but have not faced a team that scores as quickly and easily as Houston during that stretch.
This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play on home teams like Houston that are making 33 to 36.5 percent of their three-point attempts when they are facing a team allowing that same range defensively, and they are averaging 14.5 to 16.5 turnovers against an average pressure defense that forces 14.6 to 16.5 turnovers after 42 or more games in the season. This system is 59-32 (65%) against the spread over the last five seasons.
|03-28-14||San Antonio Spurs v. Denver Nuggets +7.5||133-102||Loss||-104||10 h 39 m||Show|
3* Oddsmakers Error on Denver Nuggets +
The Spurs have put together a long winning streak, but they struggled at home on Wednesday when facing the Nuggets. Now they get the Nuggets again, but this time in Denver. The Spurs won the last meeting by just five points in San Antonio, so getting over seven points on the Nuggets in Denver is a gift from the oddsmakers.
The Nuggets may not have a great record, but they have certainly been exceeding the oddsmakers expectations. Denver has covered the spread in seven of its last nine games. Covering the spread usually comes pretty easy for a team that is averaging 105.1 points per game at home. It is also worth noting that Denver is 10-1 ATS in home games when playing a team that has won 70 percent or more of its games on the season.
This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Nuggets. You should play on underdogs like Denver when they average 103 points per game or more, and they allowed 55 points or more in the first have of their last two games. This system identifies teams the oddsmakers have undervalued. It has resulted in a 55-27 (67%) record against the spread.
|03-28-14||Portland Trail Blazers v. Chicago Bulls -4.5||91-74||Loss||-109||9 h 39 m||Show|
4* Heavy Hitter on Chicago Bulls -
The Bulls have a lot to play for tonight so I expect to see them put on a very strong showing. Chicago can clinch a playoff berth with a win over the Trail Blazers, and you have to like their chances to do so considering the situation Portland is playing in. The Trail Blazers will play their fifth consecutive road game, and it also happens to be the second half of a back-to-back after playing on the road against Atlanta yesterday.
The Bulls and Pacers can both make strong arguments for the best defense in the NBA. I would lean towards Chicago taking that crown when they have the luxury of playing on their home court. The Bulls have surrendered a mere 89.4 points per game at home this season while Portland comes into this matchup allowing 104.9 points per game on the road. Chicago's defense has been incredibly solid recently, allowing just 88 points per game over their last five games. They get to face a Trail Blazers team whose scoring average has dipped from 106.8 points per game down to a mere 97.2 points per game over their last five games.
You should play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Chicago when they are playing only their second game in the last five days and are up against an opponent playing their fourth game in the last five days. This system has an 82-42 (66%) record against the spread. When that team is a home favorite the system tightens up to 30-11 (73%) against the spread over the last five seasons.
|03-28-14||Tennessee +2.5 v. Michigan||71-73||Win||100||52 h 26 m||Show|
4* Midwest Heavy Hitter Play of the Day on Tennessee +
The Volunteers are the most underrated team in the remaining NCAA Tournament field. Tennessee may come into this game with 12 losses on the season, but only one of those 12 losses came by a double-digit margin and it was on the road against now No. 1 in the country Florida. Tennessee has won eight of its last nine games, with the only loss during that stretch also coming against Florida on a neutral court in the SEC Tournament. Tennessee has faced an incredibly difficult schedule this season and that will have them well prepared for the Wolverines.
Michigan is a team that has exceeded its talent level all year. Nine of the Wolverine's wins have come by five points or less. I expect them to struggle against Tennessee's underrated defense. The Volunteers have held opponents to a mere 61.4 points per game this season. When playing on the road that number barely increases, allowing just 63.2 points per game away from home. Meanwhile, the Wolverines have surrendered over 67 points per game against opponents with a scoring average that is much lower than Tennessee's.
This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Volunteers. You should play on teams like Tennessee when the line is three points or less and they are an excellent ball handling team that is committing less than 12 turnovers per game, after five consecutive games forcing opponents to commit 14 turnovers or less. This system identifies teams with great ball control and excellent defensive skills that the oddsmakers are undervaluing. It has resulted in a 235-181 (57%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.
|03-27-14||Portland Trail Blazers -2.5 v. Atlanta Hawks||100-85||Win||100||9 h 45 m||Show|
4* Vegas Insider of the Week on Portland Trail Blazers -
The Atlanta Hawks are playing in a very tough spot today. They have lost four consecutive games, and now the Hawks are tasked with facing a hungry Portland team in the second half of a back-to-back. Meanwhile, Portland is coming into this matchup with a day of rest. The Trailblazers have played in some close games recently and have caught a few bad breaks. I think they will be the hungry team in this matchup and easily pick up a big win over Atlanta.
The Trail Blazers explosive offense gives them a big advantage over Atlanta. When playing on the road Portland averages an impressive 105.8 points per game. They are facing an Atlanta team whose offense is really struggling right now. The Hawks are 1-4 over their last five games and have scored just 97.4 points per game during that stretch.
This matchup fits into a system to play against teams like Atlanta when the line is three points or less and they are revenging a loss against their opponent and are coming off a road loss. This system is 236-144 (62%) ATS over the last five seasons. You should also play on road teams like Portland that average 102 points per game or more against a team allowing over 102 points per game after 42 or more games in the season. This system is 194-126 (61%) against the spread.
|03-27-14||Dayton v. Stanford -3||Top||82-72||Loss||-112||31 h 2 m||Show|
5* Sweet 16 Game of the Year on Stanford -
Dayton's Cinderella dream has run its course, and the Flyers are about to run into a nightmare when they face the Stanford Cardinal. The Flyers played an incredibly soft schedule to earn their way into the NCAA Tournament, and they were lucky enough to draw two of the most overrated teams in the tournament in the first two rounds.
Of the 10 games Dayton played against NCAA Tournament teams this season, only one of those teams remains in the tournament today. Meanwhile, Stanford played 16 games against NCAA Tournament teams, and seven of those games came against teams that are still alive in the Sweet 16. The Cardinal may look similar on the stat sheet to Dayton, but after adjusting for strength of schedule it becomes obvious there is a great disparity in talent between these two.
This matchup fits into a system that has a long history of success against the spread. You should play on teams like Stanford when the line is three points or less and they are averaging 12 or less turnovers per game, and are coming off five straight games forcing opponents to commit 14 or less turnovers. This system has a 235-181 (57%) record against the spread over the last five seasons. It is also worth noting that Stanford is 11-3 ATS versus teams averaging six or less steals per game after 15 or more games this season.
|03-26-14||San Diego +3.5 v. Pacific||Top||60-75||Loss||-106||11 h 4 m||Show|
5* Vegas Insider on San Diego +
These teams split there games during the regular season, but the last matchup was won by San Diego in a game that was played at Pacific. I don't think there is any reason to expect a different outcome today. The Toreros have one of the best defenses in the West Coast Conference, holding opponents to a mere 64.9 points per game.
Pacific did not fare well against conference opponents this season. They posted a mere 6-13 record. The Tigers averaged a mediocre 70.6 points in those games, but on the defensive end of the court they surrendered an average of 75.8 points per game against the conference. These teams were also headed in opposite directions down the stretch. San Diego has won five of its last seven games while Pacific has lost five of its last eight games.
San Diego is 30-11 ATS in road games when playing a team that has won just 51 to 60 percent of its games on the season. After 15 or more games in the season that system tightens up to a 20-5 ATS record. The Toreros are the better team, and regardless of venue they should be able to pick up a win. We will take the points, but expect to see San Diego come out on top tonight.
|03-26-14||Denver Nuggets v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 216.5||103-108||Win||100||10 h 14 m||Show|
3* Total Annihilator on Nuggets/Spurs UNDER -
The value in this matchup is clearly on the under. Over their last five games the Supers have been playing incredibly well on defense. They are holding opponents to just 94.6 points per game during that stretch. The team is already solid defensively when playing at home, allowing just 97.5 points per game on the season.
When the Spurs are covering spreads it is generally because they are playing well on defense. The under is 31-13 in home games when San Antonio has covered the spread in eight or more of their last 10 games. The under is 62-34 in Denver's road games when facing an opponent from the Southwest division.
This matchup also fits into a very profitable system to play the under. You should take the under when the total is 210 points or more, and one of the teams (Denver) is revenging a loss where their opponent scored 100 points or more, and they are off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more. This system has a 71-38 (65%) record in favor of the under.
|03-26-14||Cleveland Cavaliers v. Detroit Pistons -5.5||97-96||Loss||-105||9 h 15 m||Show|
4* No Brainer on Detroit Pistons -
The Cavaliers are still without Kyrie Irving and I think it will catch up with them tonight. Cleveland picked up a win at home last night over Toronto, but now the Cavaliers are forced to play in a back-to-back situation with this second half game coming on the road against Detroit. It is also Cleveland's fourth game in the last five days.
The Cavaliers have not fared well on the road this season. They are losing two games for every one road win. Detroit comes into this matchup having won two of its last three home games, and they are playing some pretty solid basketball against division opponents. Detroit is surrendering just 97 points per game against the division, a number that is will below their overall defensive scoring average on the season.
You should play on a team like Detroit when they are scoring 98 to 102 points per game and are facing a defense allowing that same number after 42 or more games, and when coming off a combined score of 205 points or more in two straight games. This system identifies teams who have a hot offense right now. It has led to a 60-32 (65%) ATS record over the last five seasons.
|03-25-14||Toronto Raptors v. Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 195||100-102||Loss||-110||8 h 45 m||Show|
3* Total Dominator on Raptors/Cavs UNDER -
Both of these teams are playing with a day of rest so this matchup should play out to be a defensive battle. The Raptors have surrendered an average of just 97.4 points per game on the road this season. They are facing a Cavaliers team that is not known for scoring a lot of points. Cleveland comes into this matchup averaging 97.3 points per game, and against a tough defense like Toronto's I think that number will be even lower today.
While Cleveland may not score a lot of points, the Cavaliers are a much better team defensively than they get credit for. Cleveland has held opponents to 99.3 points per game when playing at home. That bodes well for the under since Toronto's offensive production takes a big hit in road games. Both teams are playing with key injuries, and I think that will also have a big impact on the total score.
You should play the under when the total is 190 to 199.5 points and one of the teams (Toronto) is off a home win by 10 points or more, and they are facing an opponent that is coming off an upset win as a road underdog. This system has a 142-93 (60%) record in favor of the under. It is also worth noting that the under is 10-1 when Cleveland is coming off a road win, and it is 16-4 when Toronto is playing a team winning 25 to 40 percent of its games in the the second half of the season.
|03-25-14||Portland Trail Blazers v. Orlando Magic +6||85-95||Win||100||8 h 45 m||Show|
4* Heavy Hitter on Orlando Magic +
This line screams trap game for Portland backers. The Magic are coming into this matchup with a day of rest, and they face a Trail Blazers team that is playing in a very tough back-to-back spot after losing on the road against Miami last night. After suffering a heartbreaking two-point loss like that I don't think Portland will be coming into this game with the mentality it takes to cover a six-point spread.
The Magic are not a great team, I don't think anybody would argue that, but they are pretty solid at home. It is worth noting that 15 of their 19 wins this season have come on their home court. Orlando's record at home is just a few games back from Portland's record on the road. The Magic should also score at will in this game against a soft Trail Blazers defense. Portland has surrendered 105.7 points per game on the road and 109.6 points per game over their last five games.
Portland is 13-25 ATS after two or more consecutive losses, and they are 10-22 ATS after playing two or more consecutive games as an underdog. This is a mentally weak team. The Trail Blazers have now lost seven of their last 10 games. We will take the points with Orlando, but it would not be surprising to see Portland drop its third consecutive game tonight.
|03-25-14||Belmont v. Clemson -7||Top||68-73||Loss||-115||10 h 42 m||Show|
5* NIT Game of the Year on Clemson -
The Clemson Tigers have flown under the radar for most of the season. It may come as a surprise to know that Clemson has the nation's fourth ranked scoring defense. The Tigers are the only team in the top five scoring defenses that are not still active in the NCAA Tournament. That is a good indication of just how important good defense is in the postseason. Clemson has held opponents to a mere 57.9 points per game. When playing at home that number drops to an even 54 points per game.
The Tigers have a dominant 15-3 record when protecting their home court. They will face a Belmont team that sees a drastic drop in production when playing on the road. The Bruins have surrendered an average of 75.3 points in road games. Belmont has also been a big disappointment when playing on the road or on a neutral court in tournament games. They have a 5-14 ATS record in that situation over the last three seasons.
This matchup fits into a system to play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Clemson when they are coming from a BCS conference and are playing against a team from a mid-major, and they are coming off two or more consecutive home wins. Clemson beat Georgia State and Illinois to start the NIT Tournament. This system has a 40-14 (74%) record against the spread. It is also worth noting the Tigers have won seven of their last 10 games coming into this matchup.
|03-24-14||Milwaukee Bucks v. Los Angeles Clippers -16||98-106||Loss||-110||11 h 8 m||Show|
3* Bailout Blowout on LA Clippers -
This may seem like a lot of points, but when you look at the disparity in talent between these teams the value is clearly with the Clippers. Milwaukee has won a mere five games on the road this season. They are losing those matchups by a near double-digit margin and now have to face one of the leagues hottest teams with one of the highest scoring offenses. You also have to consider the fact that Milwaukee is coming off an embarrassing 17 point loss at Sacramento just last night.
The Clippers come into this matchup with a day of rest, and with an offense that is averaging 110.7 points per game. Defensively Los Angeles has been great when playing at home. They have held opponents to a mere 99.4 points per game this season. Milwaukee is sitting well below the Clipper's opponents scoring average of 101.1 points per game. The Bucks are averaging 95.2 points per game.
Milwaukee is 4-16 against the spread when facing a team that is outscoring its opponents by six or more points per game. They are also 10-22 ATS against teams that are making 46 percent or more of their shot attempts. The Clippers come into this matchup making over 48 percent of their attempts at home, and they will have no problem picking up a blowout win over the Bucks.
|03-24-14||LSU v. SMU -6||67-80||Win||100||11 h 23 m||Show|
3* No Doubt Rout on SMU -
The SMU Mustangs will play host to the LSU Tigers in a second round NIT matchup. The Mustangs picked up a dominating 14-point win over UC-Irvine in the first round of play, due in large part to a defense that has been underrated for most of the season. SMU is allowing 62 points per game overall, but when playing at home that number drops all the way down to 58.6 points per game surrendered.
The Mustangs have posted an 11-2 ATS record on their home court, and a 16-1 overall record in those games. Meanwhile, the LSU Tigers have a losing record of 7-10 overall when playing on the road, and 6-9 record against the spread in those games. There is a lot of disparity in talent between these teams. SMU was able to win their last game by 14 points even though they shot just 33.9 percent from the field. The Mustangs defense is incredibly good, and they should have no problem shutting down the Tigers.
You should play on a team like SMU after going under the total by 42 points or more in their last seven games when they are playing in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. This system is 42-18 (70%) against the spread. When they have gone under the total by 48 points or more in their last seven games the system tightens up to 34-14 (71%) against the spread over the last five seasons.
|03-24-14||Detroit Pistons v. Utah Jazz +1||114-94||Loss||-110||10 h 38 m||Show|
3* Oddsmakers Error on Utah Jazz +
The Jazz should have no problem picking up a win over Detroit tonight. The Pistons are riding a five game losing streak, and they are showing no signs of life. Things have not been going well for the Jazz either, but they are playing in a great spot to pick up a second consecutive win tonight. They picked up a big victory over Orlando in their last outing, and Utah has the luxury of playing the host role in this matchup.
Detroit is a bad team, but when playing on the road they somehow go from bad to worse. The Pistons have won a mere 10 road games all season. They are surrendering 105.1 points per game on the road, while the offense is barely able to keep up with opponents' defensive scoring averages at 100.6 points per game. The last time these teams met Utah picked up a dominating win over Detroit. The Pistons were the host team in that matchup, and ended up losing to the Jazz with a 89-110 final score.
This matchup fits into a very profitable system to fade the Pistons. You should play against teams like Detroit when they are revenging a loss of 10 points or more, and are coming off two road covers where the team lost straight up as an underdog. This system identifies teams the oddsmakers have overvalued, and it has resulted in a 63-29 (69%) record against the spread.
|03-24-14||Minnesota Timberwolves v. Memphis Grizzlies -8||Top||92-109||Win||100||9 h 50 m||Show|
5* Vegas Insider on Memphis Grizzlies -
Minnesota is playing in a very tough spot. The Timberwolves just lost at home against Phoenix last night, and now they have to try to avoid their third straight loss by playing on the road in the second half of a back-to-back situation where they will face the Memphis Grizzlies. Added to that is the fact that Memphis has been on fire, winning nine of its last 12 games.
The biggest problem for Minnesota this season has been its defense. Minnesota has lost three of its last five games, and four of those five games resulted in losses against the spread. During that stretch the Timberwolves have surrendered an average of 117 points per game. Meanwhile, Memphis comes into this matchup holding opponents to a mere 84.8 points per game over its last five games. These teams are headed in opposite directions down the stretch, and the Grizzlies should have no problem picking up a big win tonight.
This matchup fits into a system to play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Minnesota when they are coming off a home loss, and trying to revenge a home loss by their opponent. These teams met in Minnesota earlier this season and it was Memphis that picked up a four-point win. This system has a 119-76 (61%) ATS record over the last five seasons.
|03-23-14||Baylor v. Creighton -3.5||Top||85-55||Loss||-102||11 h 6 m||Show|
5* West Region Game of the Year Creighton -
This matchup has blowout written all over it. The Creighton Bluejays are one of the best three-point shooting teams left in the tournament. They are making 42.1 percent of their three-point attempts this season. McDermott and Co. will have the luxury of facing a Baylor defense that has been soft around the perimeter. Baylor has allowed opponents to make 39.2 percent of their attempts when playing away from home.
The Bluejays do not just have a three point shooting advantage, they also have advantages in rebounding and ball control. On the boards Creighton has allowed opponents just nine offensive rebounds per game. Without second chance shot attempts from offensive rebounds the Bears will struggle to keep pace with Creighton's high powered offensive attack. The Bluejays are also an excellent ball control team committing a mere 10 turnovers per game, so even if the Bears do decide to dial up some pressure it could likely widen Creighton's margin of victory.
Creighton is a team that gets hot and plays extremely well. The Bluejays are 13-6 against the spread when coming off a win by 10 points or more this season. The Bluejays are also 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games. The Bears do not have a player on the roster that can slow down Doug McDermott. Even if he gets double or triple teamed the Bluejays have very talented shooters around him. McDermott is coming into this game averaging 27 points, 7.1 rebounds and is shooting almost 46 percent on three point attempts.
|03-23-14||Cleveland Cavaliers v. New York Knicks -9.5||106-100||Loss||-105||9 h 45 m||Show|
4* Eastern Conference Game of the Week on New York Knicks -
The Knicks are one of the hottest teams in the NBA. They have won eight consecutive games and will look for a ninth straight win tonight when they host the struggling Cleveland Cavaliers. Cleveland is riding a four game losing streak, and the Cavaliers are playing in a very tough back-to-back spot after hosting Houston last night.
Over their last five games the Cavaliers have been playing right in line with their season averages in both scoring and points allowed. On the offensive side of things they have averaged 97 points per game, while defensively they have surrendered 103.2 points per game. They are 1-4 during that stretch. The Cavaliers are simply a bad team, and they will struggle to keep this game within single-digits against a red hot Knicks team that is averaging 107.8 points per game over their last five games.
This matchup fits into a system to play against the Cavaliers. You should fade teams like Cleveland when they are a road underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, and they are trying to revenging a home loss against their opponent when that loss came by 10 points or more, and they are coming into this matchup off a home loss. The last time these teams met the Knicks picked up a 107-97 win in Cleveland just a couple weeks ago, and the Cavaliers coming off a seven point loss to Houston last night. This system is 58-29 (67%) against the spread over the last five seasons.
|03-23-14||North Carolina +2 v. Iowa State||83-85||Push||0||8 h 20 m||Show|
3* Oddsmakers Error on North Carolina +
I think the oddsmakers have severely underestimated the impact Georges Niang has for Iowa State. Niang averages 16.7 points per game, 4.5 rebounds per game and 3.6 assists per game. His contributions are just as big on the defensive end of the court. While he may not receive the same kind of attention that Melvin Ejim and DeAndre Kane do, Niang's statistical contributions are just as good.
With Niang out the Tar Heels should score at will in the paint. Niang was only 6' 7" but he made his presence known down low. Now the Cyclones will have to deal with three Tar Heel forwards all listed at 6' 9" and up. Kennedy Meeks, James Michael McAdoo and Brice Johnson combined for 44 points in North Carolina's win over Providence. It would also be hard to go against a Roy Williams coached team at this point in the Tournament. North Carolina lost in the third round last season, but under Williams they have never been eliminated that early in back-to-back seasons.
This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing North Carolina. This system identifies matchups where the oddsmakers have overvalued recent performances. You should play on a team like North Carolina that has failed to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games, when they are facing an opponent that has successfully covered the spread in four or more consecutive games. This system has a 139-83 (63%) record against the spread over he last five seasons.
|03-22-14||Oregon v. Wisconsin -5||Top||77-85||Win||100||34 h 21 m||Show|
5* NCAA Tournament Game of the Year on Wisconsin -
This game is being played in Milwaukee, so it is essentially a home game for the Badgers. That will be a huge advantage for them since Oregon had to travel across the country and its doubtful they will have much support from the fan base. The Ducks have to face a very smart basketball team. Wisconsin doesn't foul. Opponents who average 22 free throws per game are only getting 15 per game against them. Teams like Oregon that get to the line struggle against the Badgers as Wisconsin is 22-7 ATS against teams shooting 25 or more free throws per game in the second half of the season dating back to 1997.
Oregon shoots an impressive 38.6% from behind the arc, but Wisconsin doesn't allow teams to shoot threes. Badgers are 8th best in the nation, allowing teams that shoot 18 threes per game to only get off 14 against them. On the flip side Oregon has been good at pressuring teams, which leads to turnovers forced, but also a lot of fouls. That's bad news on both fronts as Wisconsin turns the ball over 8 times per game, they aren't going to get flustered. They also shoot 75% from the line. The Ducks give up 27 free throws per game to teams that average only 23.
This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Badgers. You should play on neutral court favorites like Wisconsin after two straight games committing 11 or less turnovers, when they are up against an opponent coming off a game committing eight or less turnovers. BYU has one of the worst defenses in the region, and the oddsmakers have overvalued Oregon's ball control ability coming into this matchup. Wisconsin has a tough Big Ten defense and should easily shut the Ducks down. This system has a 96-51 (65%) record against the spread.