20* NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Patriots/Bucs OVER 47.5

This game really sets up for an OVER.  We have two of the top MVP candidates at QB in Baker Mayfield and Drake Maye up against two poor pass defenses.  And both defenses are elite against the run, so I don't expect either offense to try to run the football much.  The ball will be in the air a lot, which favors the OVER.

Maye leads a Patriots offense that ranks 7th in scoring at 26.3 points per game and 5th at 6.1 yards per play.  He is completing 74.1% of his passes for 2,285 yards with a 17-to-4 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 270 yards and two scores on the ground.  He'll be up against a Bucs defense that ranks 22nd against the pass.

Mayfield leads a Bucs offense that ranks 15th in scoring at 24.6 points per game.  He is completing 63.9% of his passes for 1,919 yards with a 13-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 158 yards.  He is back healthy now and wasn't running as much leading into a much-needed bye last week.  He should use his legs more moving forward, which is a big weapon of his to move the chains.  He'll be up against a Patriots defense that ranks 19th against the pass and 25th allowing 7.0 per attempt.

The Bucks will be without LB Haason Reddick and his backup in Markees Watts.  They were already without Calijah Kancey and really lack a pass rush right now.  The Patriots lost LB Christian Elliss to injury last week and he is out for this one.  I expect both offenses to have their way with these defenses, especially given the forecast.  

Temps will be in the 80's with single-digit winds and only a 25% chance of rain.  The OVER is 3-0 in Bucs three home games this season finishing with 49, 56 and 56 combined points.  The Patriots are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago Bears -4

I love the spot for the Chicago Bears this week.  They are back home after consecutive road games against the Ravens and Bengals and taking a step down in class here against the Giants.  They have played five of their first eight games on the road.  They are 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS at home this season with their lone loss coming back in Week 1 against the Vikings after blowing a double-digit 4th quarter lead.  They have since beaten the Cowboys by 17 and the Saints by 12 at home.

While the Bears are the fresher, healthier team after already having their bye week, the Giants will be playing for a 10th consecutive week and are running on fumes right now.  They are losing bodies left and right and are one of the most injury-ravaged teams in the NFL.  This is much more of a play against the Giants than it is a play on the Bears.

The Giants haven't recovered from blowing a 19-0 lead over the Broncos to lose in the 4th quarter.  They came back and lost 38-20 on the road to the Eagles before falling 34-24 to an equally injury-ravaged 49ers team at home last week.  Their defense is in shambles, allowing an average of 35 points per game in their last three games.

It's easy to see why as the Giants are without CB Paulson Adebo, LB Chauncey Golston, and several other key depth pieces.  The offense isn't any healthier.  The Giants will be without WR Malik Nabers, WR Beaux Collins, RB Cam Skattebo, C John Michael Schmitz Jr and K Graham Gano.  They could also be without RT Jermain Eluemunor, who is questionable.

The Giants are 0-5 SU on the road this season.  The Bears are basically fully healthy on offense, and while they are missing four starters on defense in all, they are still in much better shape than the Giants.  I look for them to make easy work of them here.

The forecast is calling for temps in the 30's, 25 MPH sustained winds and a sloppy field.  The team that runs the football better is going to have the advantage, and that is the Bears.  They will have their full compliment of RB's available and have the much better run-blocking O-Line and play-caller in Ben Johnson.  This is where the Giants will really miss Skattebo getting those tough yards.

The Giants rank 19th averaging 4.2 yards per carry while the Bears rank 2nd overall in rushing at 144.4 yards per game and 6th at 4.9 yards per rush.  The biggest weakness of the Giants is stopping the run.  They rank 32nd allowing 150 rushing yards per game and 32nd allowing 5.5 yards per carry.  They have allowed an average of 192.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games.  Bet the Bears Sunday.

15* Falcons/Colts NFL Berlin Early ANNIHILATOR on Indianapolis -6

I love the spot for the Indianapolis Colts.  They are coming off a humbling, misleading loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in which they gave the game away by committing six turnovers.  They still only lost by 7 despite the 6 turnovers, a sign of a great team.  They outgained the Steelers 368 to 225, or by 143 total yards.  It was a very fluky result.

The Colts are very close to being undefeated this season.  Their other loss to the Rams was fluky as well as they had two TD's overturned, one by penalty and one by dropping the ball before the end zone.  The Rams still needed a game-winning TD in the final two minutes to win by 7 in Los Angeles.  The Colts are winning by blowout week after week, outscoring opponents by 12.1 points per game on the season.  They will get back to their dominant selves this week in Berlin.

The Colts are a complete team other than injuries in their secondary.  Well, they addressed that matter by trading two first-round picks for CB Sauce Gardner, who is easily a Top 2 CB in the league right alongside Patrick Surtain of the Broncos.  Gardner will come in handy particularly in this game matching up with Drake London of the Falcons.  Stop London and you stop this Atlanta passing attack as they are so reliant on him.

The Falcons are a mess right now.  They have lost three in a row with a 10-point loss at San Francisco, a 24-point home loss to Miami and a 1-point road loss at New England. They trailed the Patriots by 14 points last week before a flurry of one-handed catches by London got them back in it.  They missed the potential tying extra point and since cut their kicker.  It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.

The Falcons are decimated by injuries along their offensive line right now.  They are without three starters in RT Kaleb McGary, his replacement in Storm Norton, and LG Matthew Bergeron.  Another starter in Chris Linsdtrom is questionable. Michael Penix does not deal well with pressure, and he will be under duress all game.  Penix is actually 0-5 SU in outdoor games in his career as well.  That includes the loss to New England, the 10-point loss to the 49ers and the 30-point loss to the Panthers earlier this season.

I love the matchup for the Colts.  Both teams rely heavily on their running game with the Jonathan Stewart for the Colts and Bijon Robinson and Tyler Algier for the Falcons.  The Colts have one of the best offensive lines in the league, while the Falcons have one of the worst in their current state.  The Falcons rank 23rd allowing 124.4 rushing yards per game and 20th at 4.4 per carry.  The Colts rank 4th allowing just 87 rushing yards per game and 11th at 4.0 per carry.

Favorites are 39-14-1 SU & 34-20 ATS in International games, including 29-9-1 SU & 24-15 ATS as a favorite of a FG or more.  Teams coming off a SU loss as a favorite before an International game are 15-9 ATS, including 2-0 ATS this season.  Bet the Colts Sunday morning in Berlin.

20* Raiders/Broncos AFC West No-Brainer on Denver -8.5

Note: I really like a 6-point teaser with the Broncos -2.5/Eagles +8.5.  The Lions -2.5 or better is another good option to pair with the Broncos.

Teams on short rest off an OT game are 26-47 SU & 23-47-3 ATS over the last 20 years.  Road teams in this spot are 9-27 SU & 10-25-1 ATS.  Worse yet, those same overtime teams when playing on Thursday night football are 6-21 SU & 4-23 ATS over the last 20 years.

That's what the Las Vegas Raiders are up against tonight.  They are coming off a gut-wrenching 30-29 OT loss to the Jaguars last week in which their defense was on the field basically the entire 2H.  That game was their 'last stand', and they missed the potential game-winning 2-point conversion in OT.  It's going to be hard for them to get back up off the mat after that defeat.  

The Raiders were sellers at the trade deadline sending their best receiver in Jakobi Myers to the Jaguars.  This is likely the worst WR room in the NFL now and it's no wonder Geno Smith has looked like a shell of his former self all season.  The Raiders rank 29th in scoring at 16.5 points per game and 30th in total offense at 283.2 yards per game.  It's not going to get any better without Myers moving forward.

Geno is playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL to boot.  That offensive line will not hold up tonight against the best pass rush in the NFL in the Broncos, who lead the NFL with 40 sacks and are also 1st in allowing the fewest sacks (9) in the league.  Denver ranks 4th in scoring defense at 18.4 points per game, 3rd in total defense at 279.9 yards per game and 1st at 4.8 yards per play.

This tired Raiders defense will not be able to contain this Denver offense.  This Raiders D was on the field for 76 plays against the Jaguars on Sunday.  The Raiders have allowed 25 or more points in five of their last six games with the only exception coming against the lowly Titans.  They have allowed 30 or more points in four of their last six games.  Denver should easily win this game by double-digits, just as it did in both meetings last season.  Bet the Broncos Thursday.

20* Cardinals/Cowboys ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 51.5

The Dallas Cowboys are a dead nuts OVER team and really should be 8-0 to the OVER this season instead of 6-2.  They combined with the Eagles for 41 points in the 1st Half before a lightning delay took all of the wind out of the sails of the offenses.  They combined for 38 points in the 1st Half with the Bears but the Cowboys suffered a ton of injuries on offense in that game and Dak Prescott was pulled late.

In their six OVERS, the Cowboys went for 59 combined points with the Jets, 77 combined points with the Giants, 80 combined points with the Packers, 57 combined points with the Panthers, 66 combined points with the Commanders and 68 combined points with the Broncos to sail OVER those totals.

Dallas ranks 2nd in scoring offense at 30.8 points per game, 2nd in total offense at 384.1 yards per game and 7th at 6.1 yards per play.  What makes this even more impressive is the fact that the Cowboys have been playing most of the season without multiple starting offensive linemen, WR CeeDee Lamb and WR/KR KaVontae Turpin.  Well, the Cowboys are now as healthy as they have been all season on offense with Lamb and Turpin back and all five starting offensive linemen expected to play.

What really makes the Cowboys a dead nuts OVER team is their defense, which cannot stop anyone.  The Cowboys rank 31st in scoring defense allowing 31.2 points per game, 31st in total defense allowing 404.6 yards per game and 32nd allowing 6.4 yards per play.  They are without FS Hooker, CB Diggs, LB Overshown, S Clark, LB Sanborn and S WIlson.  Fellow S Thomas and CB Revel are questionable.  What a mess this defense is.

The Cowboys allowed 30 points to Bryce Young and the Panthers, 37 to Russell Wilson and the Giants, 31 to Caleb Williams and the Bears, 40 to the Packers, and 44 to Bo Nix and the Broncos to name a few.  Dallas' three home games in perfect conditions in the dome this season went for 77 combined points with the Giants, 80 with the Packers and 66 to the Commanders.  The OVER is now 10-3 in Cowboys last 13 home games.

Arizona is 3-0 OVER in its last three games overall.  Jacoby Brissett took over for an injured Kyler Murray and kept the Cardinals competitive, losing 31-27 at Indianapolis for 58 combined points and 27-23 at home to Green Bay for 50 combined points.  Brissett led the Cardinals to 400 total yards against the Colts and 330 total yards against the Packers.  He is likely to get the start again this week after practicing with the first-team on Friday, and I like the OVER either way.

The Cardinals also have a pitiful defense.  They were diced up for 31 points by the Colts and 27 by the Packers the last two weeks.  Injuries are a big reason the Cardinals have regressed defensively.  CB Will Johnson, CB Garrett Williams, LB BJ Julari, DL Walter Nolen were all limited in practice on Friday and are highly questionable.  The Cowboys will dice them up, and the books just can't set these Dallas totals high enough.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Seahawks/Commanders NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Seattle -3

There's always one or two teams that it takes over half a season for bettors and books alike to catch up to just how improved they are year over year.  The Seattle Seahawks are one of those teams this season.  They remain undervalued as only 3-point road favorites over the Washington Commanders this week.

The Seahawks are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS this season. Their two losses came by 4 points to the 49ers back in Week 1 when the 49ers were healthy, and by 3 points to the Bucs back when the Bucs were a lot healthier, too.  Now it's the Seahawks who are as healthy as they have been all season coming off their bye week and ready to crush the Commanders.

The Seahawks rank 6th in scoring offense at 27.6 points per game and 4th at 6.2 yards per play.  Sam Darnold is proving his season in Minnesota last year was no fluke, and he is thriving in Kubiak's offense which really utilizes play-action as well as anyone.  The defense ranks 7th in scoring at 19.4 points per game and 2nd at 4.9 yards per play.  So the Seahawks are outgaining opponents by 1.3 yards per play on the season, which is one of the best marks in the NFL.

The Seahawks have one of the most complete defenses in the NFL when healthy.  The front seven has been the strength, consistently getting pressure without blitzing.  That has helped them deal with some injuries in the secondary.  But the Seahawks are much healthier there now as their best CB in Devon Witherspoon returns after the bye.  The only starter they are still missing is FS Julian Love, but Nick Emmanwori is emerging as a star in his place.

Regression has hit the Commanders hard this season after winning so many close games last season.  They are 3-5 SU & 3-5 ATS with four losses by 7 points or more.  That includes consecutive blowout losses to the Cowboys by 22 and the Chiefs by 21.  Their defense is old and slow and banged up right now.  They rank 27th in total defense at 372.8 yards per game and 28th at 6.2 yards per play.  They are without two of their best pass rushers in DE's Armstrong and Wise Jr., and their secondary is one of the worst in the NFL as Marshon Lattimore is on his last leg.

The Commanders have a great offense when they are fully healthy.  But that's just not the case right now.  QB Jaden Daniels is returning from a hamstring injury, but I don't think he will test it much, and without being a dual-threat he is limited.  He also won't have his favorite receiver in Terry McClaurin, who reaggrevated his quad injury last week against the Chiefs.  Deebo Samuel has lost a couple steps, and Noah Brown and Austin Ekeler are both on IR.

The spot really favors the Seahawks as they are off a bye while the Commanders are on a short week after traveling to Kansas City Monday.  The Seahawks are the better, fresher, healthier team right now and it's not close.  Over the last two seasons, teams who on short rest after facing the Chiefs are 0-4 SU losing those games by an average of 16 points per game.  Seattle is 10-1 SU in road games under Mike McDonald over the last two seasons.  Bet the Seahawks Sunday.

15* Chiefs/Bills AFC ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City ML -125

The Kansas City Chiefs have the best offense in the NFL right now with how healthy they are at the skill positions.  Since Xavier Worthy returned from injury, the Chiefs have averaged 30.8 points per game and 415.8 total yards per game in their last five games.  They just got Rashee Rice back from a 6-game suspension and racked up 434 yards against the Raiders as he scored two touchdowns in his return.  Rice had 9 receptions for 93 yards and a score against the Commanders in his 2nd game back.  It's an embarrassment of riches for Patrick Mahomes right now on offense.

The Bills just don't have the playmakers the Chiefs do on offense and it shows.  They were held to 14 points by the Falcons and 20 points by the Patriots in two of their last three games.  No question the Chiefs have the better, more explosive offense, and the difference is even more glaring on defense.

The Chiefs rank 4th in total defense at 277.8 yards per game and 3rd in scoring defense at 16.4 points per game.  They are fully healthy on defense right now.  The Bills rank 23rd allowing 5.7 yards per play this season.  They are going to be much worse off defensively this week due to some key injuries.  They are without their two best defensive linemen in DT Ed Oliver and DT DaQuan Jones, leaving a gaping hole in the middle of their defense.  They are also without SS Raylor Rapp and FS Damar Hamlin.  CB Taron Johnson is questionable, and LB Shaq Thompson is out.

Getting the Chiefs are basically a PK in their current state up against the Bills in their current state is a gift here.  Bet the Chiefs on the Money Line Sunday.

20* AFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jaguars/Raiders OVER 45

This is a good time to 'buy low' on an OVER between these two teams.  The Jaguars went under the total in their two games going into the bye week while scoring 12 points against the Seahawks and 7 points against the Rams.  The Raiders went under the total in three straight games heading into their bye week scoring 6 points against the Colts, 20 against the Titans and 0 against the Chiefs getting shut out.

I expect both offenses to be much sharper coming out of the bye week with first-year head coaches and first-year coordinators.  The Jaguars have the talent on offense to be explosive, and they certainly have a great offensive head coach in Liam Coen to get the most out of them.  After all, the Jaguars put up 31 points on the Chiefs, 26 on the 49ers, 27 on the Bengals and 26 on the Panthers earlier this season so the potential is there.

Chip Kelly should have this Raiders offense looking as good as it has all season.  The Raiders have been without their two biggest weapons for Geno Smith for weeks now in WR Jakobi Meyers and TE Brock Bowers.  Well, both of those guys return this week, and that's going to make all the difference for Smith and company.  This offense played well earlier in the season when both were healthy.  Bowers means everything to this offense, and it should help open things up for Ashton Jeanty.

These are two mediocre to below averages defenses in the NFL.  The Raiders rank 23rd in scoring allowing 25.7 points per game.  The Jaguars rank 21st in total defense at 336.9 yards per game and 19th at 5.6 yards per play.  Jacksonville S Eric Murray has been placed on injured reserve, and LB Devin Lloyd who is their best defender is questionable with a calf injury.

It will be perfect conditions in the dome at Allegiant Stadium for scoring.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Los Angeles Chargers -9.5

Some teams bettors and the books just can't adjust down enough for how terrible they are.  That has been the Tennessee Titans for two years running.  After going 3-14 ATS last season, the Titans are now 2-6 ATS this season and were fortunate to get the two covers they had.  They covered by a half-point against the closing line in an 8-point loss to the Broncos as 8.5-point dogs in the opener.  They were about to be down 28-6 to the Cardinals in the 4th quarter before the Cardinals fumbled celebrating a TD too early going into the end zone.

So the Titans are now 5-20 ATS in their 25 games over the last two seasons.  They are getting worse before they get better, largely due to injuries.  They lost by 10 to the Raiders on the road, by 18 to the Patriots at home and by 24 to the Colts in the road in their last three games coming in.  Cam Ward has no help on offense, and he's without his best weapon in WR Calvin Ridley.

The injuries are even worse defensively.  They are without their most important defender in DT Jeffery Simmons.  They are without their best LB in Arden Key.  And they are without two of their best players in the secondary in CB L'Jarious Sneed and FS Xavier Woods.  It's no wonder they allowed 31 points to the Patriots and 38 to the Colts in their last two games.

The Chargers come in on extra rest after blowing the doors off the Vikings 37-10 at home last Thursday.  They outgained the Vikings 419 to 164, or by 255 total yards.  Justin Herbert is playing at a MVP level, especially now that he finally has a healthy offensive line with Joe Alt, Trey Pipkins III, Bobby Hart and Mekhi Becton all back healthy.  He has unbelievable weapons especially with the emergence of TE Oronde Gadsden II and RB Kimani Vidal in recent weeks.

The Chargers rank 12th in scoring defense at 21.6 points per game and 5th in total defense at 296.9 yards per game.  They are getting better after shutting down the Vikings and are much healthier now.  Derwin James, Khalil Mack and Denzel Perryman are all healthy and back from injury.  The only key defender they are missing is CB Tarheeb Still.

Jim Harbaugh handles these situations well as a NFL head coach.  Harbaugh is 25-8 SU & 24-8-1 ATS when playing in EST or CST time zones as a head coach, including 16-3 SU & 15-4 ATS in Eastern time zones.  When coming off extended rest in these spots, his teams are 5-0 SU winning by an average of 15.8 points per game.  The Titans are 0-11 ATS in their last 11 home games.  The Chargers will crush the Titans in this one.  Bet the Chargers Sunday.

15* Vikings/Lions NFC North ANNIHILATOR on OVER 47.5

The Lions are an offensive juggernaut in a dome, especially at home.  The Lions are putting up 36.7 points per game, 389 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play at home.  When Detroit plays a home game and the total is below 50, the OVER is 18-8 under Dan Campbell.  The OVER is 40-21 in all Lions home games with a total less than 50 since 2015.

While Detroit is fully healthy on offense, the defense is another story.  The Lions remain without FS Kerby Joseph, and they have eight defenders on IR with another two out this week.  Their secondary is very beat up, and Kevin O'Connell and the Vikings are equipped to take advantage of it with one of the best sets up weapons in the NFL.

JJ McCarthy is set up for success as he returns from a bye week healthy and ready to go.  He has all of his top playmakers healthy in RB's Mason and Jones, WR's Jefferson Addison and Nailor and TE Hockenson.  The offensive line has some guys questionable, but McCarthy is mobile which will be a big upgrade from Carson Wentz, who just can't get away from pressure.

This Minnesota defense has been torched the last two weeks and is overrated.  The Vikings allowed 28 points and 316 passing yards to the Eagles and 37 points and 419 total yards to the Chargers.  Goff has owned Brian Flores and this blitz-happy Minnesota defense in his career, and that won't change this week.

The OVER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings with 50 or more combined points in eight of those 10 meetings.  The Lions alone have scored at least 30 points in each of the last five meetings.  They will get 30-plus in this one as well to pave the way to us cashing this OVER 47.5 ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Broncos/Texans AFC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 39.5

This is a very low total for a NFL game that will be played indoors in the dome in Houston in perfect scoring conditions.  I realize these are two of the best defenses in the NFL, but I don't think these two offenses are getting enough credit here.

The Broncos rank 10th in scoring offense at 25.9 points per game and 9th in total offense at 356.9 yards per game.  They have a better than average offense, especially with a creative mind like Sean Payton calling the shots.  He will find ways to scheme things up against the league's top-ranked defense to make Bo Nix and company successful.

The Texans are finding their groove offensively with some schematic changes to help protect CJ Stroud, and he's doing a great job of stepping up in the pocket and finding big plays downfield.  The Texans have averaged 28.8 points per game in winning three of their last four games.

Injuries are a big reason I'm on the OVER.  The Texans get back their two best receivers in Nico Collins and Christian Kirk and now have an embarrassment of riches when you add in the three young receivers from Iowa State who have stepped up in their place in recent weeks.  TE Dalton Schultz and RB Woody Marks both returned to practice on Friday and both are expected to play.  

Meanwhile, the Broncos lost 2024 Defensive Player of the Year CB Patrick Surtain to a pec injury, and not having him on the field to shut down one side of the field takes away a lot of what the Broncos rely on defensively.  This Denver defense is grossly overrrated as it is allowed 32 points to the Giants two weeks ago at home.  They also allowed 29 points and 473 total yards to the Colts.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Carolina Panthers +13.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Panthers and 'sell high' on the Packers this week.  The Packers are coming off an emotional comeback win over Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers on Sunday Night Football, winning 35-25.  The Panthers are coming off a 40-9 blowout loss to the Bills, who were off their bye week and pissed off after two straight losses going into their bye.

The Panthers also didn't have Bryce Young last week, and backup QB Andy Dalton played with a broken thumb.  Well, Young is back this week, and he makes all the difference for this team.  The Panthers were 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their previous three games with Young at the helm.

Several key players at least got in limited practices this week which gives them a good chance at returning from injury after the Panthers were decimated last week.  That includes S Nick Scott, LB Trevin Wallace, G Chandler Zavala, G Damien Lewis and RT Taylor Moton.  The defense is very healthy, and the offense has all of its top playmakers available for Young.

The Packers just aren't getting margin on anyone.  They haven't won any of their last six games by more than 10 points.  They have a way of playing conservative when they get ahead, and aggressive when they are behind.  That makes it tough for them to get margin on anyone.  They only beat the Cardinals by 4, the Bengals by 9, tied the Cowboys, lost outright to the Browns and beat the Commanders by 9.

The Packers have some concerning injuries on defense with Lukas Van Ness and Nick Niemann out, while LB Quay Walker is highly questionable.  K Brandon McManus is still bothered by a quad injury and is questionable.  It's a sandwich spot for the Packers off the big road win over Rodgers and the Steelers, and with the defending champion Eagles on deck on Monday Night Football.  I just don't think they'll be fully focused this week to put away the Panthers by two-plus touchdowns.  Bet the Panthers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Panthers/Packers OVER 43.5

The Packers are 3-0-1 OVER in their last four games overall finishing with 45 or more combined points in all four plus 80, 50 and 60 combined points.  The Panthers are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall finishing with 49 or more combined points in four of those five games.

The Panthers get Bryce Young back this week and all of his weapons are healthy.  The offensive line is a little healthier as well.  The Panthers should do their park against a Packers defense that has Lukas Van Ness and Nick Niemann out, while LB Quay Walker is highly questionable.

The Packers have one of the best offenses in the NFL and should also do their park against a Carolina defense that just allowed 40 points to the Bills last week and has allowed at least 24 points in six of its eight games this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Texans ML -122

The Texans are finding their groove offensively with some schematic changes to help protect CJ Stroud, and he's doing a great job of stepping up in the pocket and finding big plays downfield.  The Texans have averaged 28.8 points per game in winning three of their last four games.

Injuries are a big reason I'm on Houston this week.  The Texans get back their two best receivers in Nico Collins and Christian Kirk and now have an embarrassment of riches when you add in the three young receivers from Iowa State who have stepped up in their place in recent weeks.  TE Dalton Schultz and RB Woody Marks both returned to practice on Friday and both are expected to play.  

Meanwhile, the Broncos lost 2024 Defensive Player of the Year CB Patrick Surtain to a pec injury, and not having him on the field to shut down one side of the field takes away a lot of what the Broncos rely on defensively.  This Denver defense is grossly overrrated as it allowed 32 points to the Giants two weeks ago at home.  They also allowed 29 points and 473 total yards to the Colts.

The Broncos are 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS in their four road games this season.  They needed a 14-point comeback to beat the Eagles and only beat the Jets by 2 in London.  They also lost outright to both the Colts and Chargers.  I think this is a tough spot for the Broncos, who are a tired team that hasn't had their bye week yet while the Texans have.  They are coming off two shootout home wins over the Cowboys and Giants following that trip to London.  I question how much they have left in the tank for the Texans, who need this win like blood while the Broncos can afford a loss as they are in 1st place in the AFC West alone.  Bet the Texans on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Falcons/Patriots OVER 44.5

The Falcons lost 34-10 to the Dolphins last week.  But their lack of offense was due to being without QB Michael Penix Jr., WR Drake London and WR Darnell Mooney.  Well, all three are back this week, and the Falcons are primed for a big offensive output against a suspect New England defense.

The Patriots have one of the most improved offenses in the NFL and should name their number against this banged up Falcons defense.  Drake Maye is having a MVP-caliber season, leading the Patriots to 8th in scoring offense at 26.6 points per game and 3rd at 6.2 yards per play.  He is doing it without much of a running game as this is a pass-happy, explosive offense.  Maye is completing 75.2% of his passes with a 15-to-3 TD/INT ratio while averaging an eye-popping 9.0 yards per attempt.

The Patriots and their opponents have combined for at least 43 points in five consecutive games despite playing dead offenses in the Browns, Titans, Saints and Panthers during this stretch.  The Falcons will be one of the best offenses they have faced this season and I expect their defense to get exposed.  But this Atlanta defense was exposed for 34 points by the lowly Miami Dolphins last week.  Injuries are a big problem with DE Zach Harrison and CB Billy Bowman out, while LB Leonard Floyd, LB Jalon Walker and SS Jessie Bates are all questionable.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bears/Bengals OVER 50.5

Two of the worst defenses in the NFL square off in what should be a shootout with the offenses having the advantage.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 50's, no wind and no rain Sunday in Cincinnati.

The Bengals have played in two straight shootouts since trading for Joe Flacco.  They went for 64 combined points with the Steelers and 77 combined points with the Jets.  Those are two of the worst offenses in the NFL, and the Bengals allowed 31 points and 396 yards to the Steelers and 39 points and 502 yards to the Jets, who were without their two best receivers in Wilson and Reynolds to boot.

The Bengals legitimately have the worst defense in the NFL, especially now that they are down their best defender in DE Trey Hendrickson.  The Bengals rank dead last in scoring defense at 31.6 points per game and dead last in total defense at 407.9 yards per game.  They also rank 30th allowing 6.4 yards per play.

But the offense has more juice now with Flacco, who is a big upgrade over Jake Browning.  He led the Bengals to 33 points and 470 total yards against the Steelers in his first start and followed it up with 38 points and 398 total yards against the Jets last week.  I know Flacco left late in that game with a shoulder injury and came back in.  But Flacco says he feels good to go this week even though he is listed as questionable.

The Bears and their opponents have combined for at least 45 points in six of their seven games this season.  The only exception was the Saints in a game played in sloppy weather in Chicago.  The Bears have a vastly improved offense under Ben Johnson, scoring 25 or more points in four of their last five games.  But they have a terrible defense, one that ranks 31st in the NFL allowing 6.4 yards per play.  So these are two of the three worst defenses in the NFL in terms of yards per play allowed.

Injuries are also a problem for this Chicago defense as they are without CB Kyler Gordon, CB Jaylon Johnson and DE Dominque Robinson.  Flacco should torch a Chicago defense that allowed 30 points and 6.0 yards per play to backup QB Tyler Huntley and the Ravens last week.  This game has shootout written all over it.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Ravens/Dolphins AFC No-Brainer on Baltimore -6.5

The Baltimore Ravens have new life.  The Pittsburgh Steelers are struggling with consecutive losses to fall to 4-3 on the season.  Now the Ravens are just two games back of the Steelers despite their disastrous 2-5 start to the season.  But that start has provided us with some line value on the Ravens moving forward.

Injuries were the biggest reason to the poor start.  The Ravens have been without Lamar Jackson since Week 4, and they have been without several key defenders who are all healthy now.  Jackson is back this week, and Roquan Smith, Kyle Van Noy, Nate Wiggins, Kyle Hamilton, Chidobe Awuzie and Marlon Humphrey are all healthy now after all previously missed time.

No question the Ravens have one of the league's top offenses when Jackson is healthy, and the defense is going to be one of the best in the league moving forward.  That was on display last week when the Ravens shut down the Bears 30-16 last week, winning and covering easily even with Tyler Huntley at QB.  They made life very tough on Caleb Williams and an improved Bears offense under Ben Johnson.

Now the Ravens take a big step down in class here against the injury-depleted Miami Dolphins, who are 2-6 this season.  The Dolphins are without two of their biggest playmakers on offense in Tyreke Hill and Darren Waller, and Waller's replacement in Julian Hill is out this week.  And already terrible Dolphins defense will be without CB Storm Duck and SS Ashtyn Davis this week, and DE Bradley Chubb is questionable.

The Dolphins are getting some respect after a 34-10 win in Atlanta last week.  Well, the Falcons were without QB Michael Penix Jr. and WR Drake London, and they were missing several starters on defense as well.  Bettors are quick to forget that the Dolphins lost 31-6 to the lowly Browns the previous week.  They have zero chance of keeping this game competitive against the Ravens.

The Dolphins have some terrible numbers.  They are averaging just 286 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play on offense, while allowing 344 yards per game and 6.1 per play on defense.  They are getting outgained by 58 yards per game and 0.7 yards per play.  They are 22nd in YPP on offense and 26th in YPP on defense.

I bet the Ravens -6.5 as soon as the line came out and would still play them at -7.5.  The Ravens also make a great teaser candidate this week if you want to use them in teasers it is a free bingo space.  Bet the Ravens Thursday.

20* Commanders/Chiefs ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 46.5

The Kansas City Chiefs have the best offense in the NFL right now with how healthy they are at the skill positions.  Since Xavier Worthy returned from injury, the Chiefs have averaged 31.5 points per game and 411.8 total yards per game.  They just got Rashee Rice back from a 6-game suspension and racked up 434 yards against the Raiders as he scored two touchdowns in his return.  It's an embarrassment of riches for Patrick Mahomes right now on offense.

The Commanders won't offer them any resistance tonight, and the Chiefs should hang up another big number here to lead the way in us cashing this OVER 46.5 ticket.  The Commanders rank 21st in scoring defense at 24.3 points per game, 27th in total defense at 364.3 yards per game and 28th at 6.1 yards per play.  They just allowed 44 points to the Cowboys last week and they are so banged up on defense right now.  They have one of the worst secondary's in the NFL, and that secondary is getting no help with four key depth pieces on the defensive line on IR in Armstrong, Wise, Jackson and Jean-Baptiste.  DT Daron Payne is questionable as well.

But a big reason I'm on the OVER this week is because the Commanders get back their two biggest playmakers in WR Terry McClaurin and WR Deebo Samuel from injury after both missed the Dallas game last week.  I'm not concerned about the drop off from Jaden Daniels to Marcus Mariota because Mariota has proven he can get it done when he has his weapons.

The OVER is 3-0 in Mariota's three starts this season combining for 65 points with the Raiders, 61 with the Falcons and 66 with the Cowboys.  Mariota went 15-of-21 for 207 yards and a TD in leading the Commanders to 41 points against the Raiders.  He threw another pair of TD passes in leading them to 27 points against the Falcons and didn't have McCLaurin in that game either.  The Commanders are fully healthy on offense coming into this one outside of QB.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Packers/Steelers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Pittsburgh +3.5

I love the spot for the Pittsburgh Steelers this week.  They will be playing with piss and vinegar in their blood after getting upset 33-31 by the Bengals on Thursday Night Football last week.  They could have been caught looking ahead to this huge game, which is the Aaron Rodgers revenge game.  It's the first time Rodgers will get a shot at his former team, and his Steelers teammates love him.  They will rally around him and get him that win, and at the very least the Steelers should not be 3.5-point home dogs to the Packers this week.

Rodgers is proving he's still got it, completing 68.6% of his passes for 1,270 yards with a 14-to-5 TD/INT ratio while only getting sacked 9 times.  Nobody gets the ball out faster than Rodgers, so I'm not concerned with Micah Parsons and this Green Bay pass rush.  Cleveland has a similar pass rush, and the Steelers dominated them 23-9 two weeks ago.  Rodgers went 21-of-30 for 235 yards and 2 TD and didn't get sacked once against the Browns.

This Pittsburgh defense will be one of the most improved in the NFL moving forward if they remain as healthy as they are right now.  Injuries were a big reason they struggled up to this point as they have been without CB Porter Jr., FS Elliott and LB Highsmith among others at times.  But they are fully healthy on defense now, and the Packers are fully healthy on offense as well with only C Frazier questionable.  In fact, you would be hard-pressed to find a team more healthy than the Steelers right now.

The Packers have just been getting by and are very close to being on a 4-game losing streak right now.  They lost outright as 7.5-point road favorites at Cleveland, they tied the Cowboys as 6.5-point road favorites, they only beat the Bengals by 9 off their bye week as 14-point home favorites, and last week they escaped with a 27-23 road win as 7-point favorites against Jacoby Brissett and the Cardinals.  They were held to 262 total yards and were outgained by 68 yards by the lowly Cardinals last week.

This is a tired Packers team playing their 4th road game in 5 games.  The Steelers have the extra rest and preparation time from playing last Thursday, and I think that advantage will really work in their favor here as they will be more ready for the Packers.  Mike Tomlin is 19-13 SU & 22-7-3 ATS as a home underdog in his career.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Steelers Sunday night.

25* NFL Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Cowboys/Broncos OVER 47.5

Note: I grabbed this OVER 47.5 Sunday night assuming it would go up and it has.  I would still make this a 25* play up to the key number of 51.

The Dallas Cowboys are a dead nuts OVER team and really should be 7-0 to the OVER this season instead of 5-2.  They combined with the Eagles for 41 points in the 1st Half before a lightning delay took all of the wind out of the sails of the offenses.  They combined for 38 points in the 1st Half with the Bears but the Cowboys suffered a ton of injuries on offense in that game and Dak Prescott was pulled late.

In their five OVERS, the Cowboys went for 59 combined points with the Jets, 77 combined points with the Giants, 80 combined points with the Packers, 57 combined points with the Panthers and 66 combined points with the Commanders to sail OVER those totals.

Dallas ranks 2nd in scoring offense at 31.7 points per game, 1st in total offense at 390.6 yards per game and 2nd at 6.2 yards per play.  What makes this even more impressive is the fact that the Cowboys have been playing most of the season without multiple starting offensive linemen, WR CeeDee Lamb and WR/KR KaVontae Turpin.  Well, the Cowboys are now as healthy as they have been all season on offense with Lamb and Turpin back and four of their five starting offensive linemen expected to play.

What really makes the Cowboys a dead nuts OVER team is their defense, which cannot stop anyone.  The Cowboys rank 30th in scoring defense allowing 29.4 points per game, 32nd in total defense allowing 401.6 yards per game and 31st allowing 6.3 yards per play.  They are without FS Hooker, CB Diggs, LB Overshown, FS Thomas and SS Wilson which are five starters.  They allowed 30 points to Bryce Young and the Panthers, 37 to Russell Wilson and the Giants, 31 to Caleb Williams and the Bears and 40 to the Packers to name a few.

This Denver defense is grossly overrated this season after playing an easy schedule of opposing quarterbacks last season.  They have faced an easy slate this season as well already getting to face Cam Ward, Jake Browning, Justin Fields and Jaxon Dart.  In their one game against a legit, healthy offense the Broncos found themselves in a 29-28 shootout with the Colts and allowed 473 total yards in the loss.  This Dallas offense is right in line with the Colts, and the Cowboys should have a lot of success against this Denver defense.

Bo Nix will be able to keep up in a shootout because he is going to have to.  He has proven he can when he needs to as he led them to a 33-32 comeback win over the Giants last week and 65 combined points.  He kept up with the Colts in a game that saw 57 combined points.  Sean Payton will be in his bag against this Cowboys defense, which is easily the worst he and Nix have been up against all season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Carolina Panthers +7.5

I love NFL teams like the Carolina Panthers because you can keep making money on them week after week.  They were terrible last year, so bettors fail to adjust their power rating enough in the first half of the season.  But this Panthers team is one of the most improved in the NFL, and the odds just continue to fail to catch up to them.

The Panthers are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS at home this season, including a 30-0 win over the Falcons that is as impressive as any win you will find all season.  Now the Panthers find themselves as 7.5-point home underdogs to the Buffalo Bills this week, and I'm going to take advantage and back them again.

My favorite thing about the Panthers is that they are great in the trenches on both sides of the football.  They are 7th in total defense at 295.7 yards per game and 8th against the run allowing 92.6 rushing yards per game.  They are 3rd in rushing offense at 140.1 yards per game and 8th at 4.7 yards per carry.

The formula to beat the Bills is to run the football and stop the run.  Josh Allen can't do it on his own without a complimentary running game, and the biggest weakness of the Bills is their run defense, which ranks 31st in allowing 156.3 yards per game and 32nd in allowing 5.8 yards per carry this season.  That's really poor when you consider the Bills have faced one of the easiest schedules in the NFL this season.

The Panthers are as healthy as anyone in the NFL right now which is a big reason for their success.  I know Bryce Young will miss this game, but Andy Dalton is one of the best backup QB's in the NFL and steps into a great situation here.  This line is being adjusted too much for the perceived drop off from Young to Dalton.

A big reason the Bills have been upset in consecutive games is because they just aren't healthy.  They lost 23-20 as 8-point home favorites to the Patriots and 24-14 as 4-point road favorites at Atlanta.  Their defense has suffered the biggest blows as they will be without DT DaQuan Jones, SS Taylor Rapp, SS Damar Hamlin, and they could be without both LB Matt Milano and LB Terrell Bernard.  No wonder they struggle so much against the run.  They are also going to be without WR Josh Palmer and they could be without TE Dalton Kincaid again.

The Bills are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall and continue to be overvalued this week.  Home underdogs of 7 or more points in the first nine games of the season are 40-11-2 ATS since 2020.  Bet the Panthers Sunday.

25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Baltimore Ravens -6

Note: I released this play Sunday night with the anticipation Lamar Jackson would be back this week.  I'm usually good at knowing injury information before most and getting ahead of line moves as evidenced by the closing line value I have on my other NFL plays this week.  But I was off the mark on this one.  When Jackson was practicing Wednesday, Thursday and getting a full practice in Friday, the line went to Ravens -7 and was pushing -7.5.  But he has since been announced out as of Saturday, and the Ravens will turn to Tyler Huntley at QB.  No question it's a downgrade for the Ravens, but I would still play them as a 25* up to -2.5, and a 20* at anything worse if you are buying this play later on in the week.

The Ravens are primed for a big performance coming out of their bye week.  They have opened 1-5 this season against the #1 toughest schedule in the NFL.  They have faced the #1 schedule of opposing offenses and the #2 schedule of opposing defenses.  They have also faced the #1 toughest schedule of opposing QB's.  Couple that will all of the injuries they have suffered, and it's no wonder they have opened 1-5.

While Lamar Jackson will be out this week, reinforcements are on the way, and I wouldn't be surprised to still see them win by a TD or more with Tyler Huntley at QB.  Huntley knows this offense and was a huge reason the Ravens ran off a NFL record 24 straight preseason wins.  He has ample playmakers on offense to make this work.

But I'm most excited about this Baltimore defense, which has been without starters Roquan Smith, Kyle Van Noy, Kyle Hamilton, Chidobe Awuzie and Marlon Humphrey at times this season.  Well, all of them are back coming out of the bye week, and this will be the most improved defense in the NFL moving forward.

This is the perfect storm of 'buying low' on the Ravens and 'selling high' on the Chicago Bears.  The Bears are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They won 25-24 on a blocked FG against the Raiders and a fumble on a simple handoff in a 25-24 win over the Commanders when they were just trying to run out the clock.  They took advantage of a Cowboys team at home that got decimated by injuries throughout the game, and they beat the lowly Saints at home.

I think it has been a lot more luck than actual good football from the Bears.  In fact, the Bears are +13 in turnovers in their last four games, forcing 15 and only committing 2!  That's unsustainable.  While the Bears are due some negative turnover regression, the Ravens are due some positive turnover regression.  Baltimore is -7 in turnover differential this season, committing 10 and forcing only 3.

The Bears will be without three starters in their secondary in CB Jaylon Johnson, CB Tyrique Stevenson and NB Kyler Gordon.  They will also be without TE Cole Kmet and LT Braxton Jones, while RB D'Andre Swift is questionable for this one.  The Bears are actually much worse off than the Ravens on the injury front right now.

The Bears rank dead last (32nd) in allowing 6.4 yards per play on defense.  They have just gotten away with it due to good turnover luck.  I wouldn't be surprised to still see the Ravens win and cover the original line of -6 that I got early in the week.  I fully expect them to win this game Sunday even without Lamar.  Bet the Ravens Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Cincinnati Bengals -4.5

The Bengals sit at 3-4 on the season and very much alive in the AFC North.  They hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Steelers as well.  The Bengals will be max motivated here hosting the Jets with a chance to get back to .500 on the season.  And they host the Bears next week, so they know this is a very important stretch for them.

Joe Flacco has proven what he can do with the best set of weapons he's ever had in his career here in Cincinnati.  He came in midweek and found himself in a one-score game as 15-point road underdogs to the Packers late in the 4th quarter.  Then he came back on a short week on a Thursday night and led the Bengals to a 33-31 home win over said Steelers.

Flacco went 31-of-47 for 342 yards and 3 TD while leading the Bengals to 470 total yards against a very healthy, good Steelers defense.  He found Jamar Chase 16 times for 161 yards and Tee Higgins 6 times for 96 yards.  His success in the passing game finally opened things up for Chase Brown, who rushed for 108 yards on only 11 carries.

The Bengals beat the Steelers without their best defensive player in DE Trey Hendrickson (15 tackles, 3 sacks).  Well, Hendrickson is back this week now that he has the extra rest to recover after the Bengals played last Thursday.  The Bengals will be very fresh, and they are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now.  They are primed for another big effort Sunday.

The Jets continue to get too much respect week in and week out despite being 0-7 this season.  Bettors continue to back them blindly thinking they will get their first win.  It didn't happen last week hosting the Panthers, and it's not going to happen this week back on the road against the Bengals either.

The Jets were a respectable team early in the season before the injuries started to pile up.  But they just can't compete in their current state.  The defense will be without CB Sauce Gardner for the first time this season.  They are without DE Jay Tufele and LB Cam Jones, and they could also be without LB Quincy Williams.

The injuries are worse on offense.  QB Tryod Taylor was expected to take over for the ineffective Justin Fields, but he's out this week so the Jets are stuck with Fields again.  And he has no chance considering the Jets are without their two best receivers in Garrett Wilson and Josh Reynolds.  It's embarrassing what they are sending out there at receiver this week.  Also, RB Breece Hall and TE Mason Taylor are both questionable.  They were already without Hall's backup in Braelon Allen, and they miss that 1-2 punch because the running game was the only thing they had going for them offensively this season.

Offense has been embarrassing for the Jets, indeed.  The Jets were held to 82 total yards by the Broncos two weeks ago in London.  They were held to 6 points and 220 total yards by the Panthers last week.  They just don't have the firepower to keep up with the Bengals, who are going to score plenty in this one to win by a TD or more and likely a blowout.  Bet the Bengals Sunday.

20* Vikings/Chargers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 44.5

The Chargers are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  Injuries at RB have made them become even more pass-happy.  They are just putting the ball in Herbert's hands and saying go win it for us.  They have attempted 38 or more passes in four of their last five games and haven't rushed more than 28 times in any game this season.

The Chargers rank dead last in yards per play allowed in their last three games, giving up 6.7 yards per play to their opponents.  Their defense has taken a big step back this season which is a big reason Herbert has been forced to try and keep up in shootouts.  They allowed 27 points and 389 yards to the Commanders, 27 points and 341 yards to the Dolphins and 38 points and 401 yards to the Colts the last three weeks.

But Herbert is doing a good job of keeping up.  The Chargers had 29 points and 403 total yards on the Dolphins and 24 points and 445 total yards on the Colts.  Herbert threw 55 times for 420 yards and 3 TD against the Colts last week.  He has elite weapons on the outside with Allen, Johnson, McConkey and Gadsden, who had 7 receptions for 164 yards last week in a breakout.  RB Vidal is also great at catching the ball out of the backfield and will be the featured back moving forward.

Herbert should have plenty of chances to make big plays over the top of an aggressive Minnesota defense that gave up a ton of big plays to the Eagles last week.  That's an Eagles team that was one of the worst passing offenses in the NFL coming into that game.  Jalen Hurts went off for 19-of-23 passing for 326 yards and 3 TD, finding DeVonta Smith 9 times for 183 yards and AJ Brown 4 times for 121 yards in a 28-22 win over the Vikings.

Minnesota has been a dead nuts OVER team this season going 5-1 OVER in its six games finishing with 45 or more combined points four times.  A lot has been due to a leaky defense, but the offense has scored at least 21 points in five of its six games this season despite having JJ McCarthy and Carson Wentz at QB.  It's another testament to head coach Kevin O'Connell, who always gets the most out of his QB's.

He is doing the same with Wentz, who threw for 313 yards against the Eagles, 236 against the Browns and 350 against the Steelers in his last three starts.  The Vikings have been extremely pass-happy as well as Wentz has averaged 40.7 attempts per game in his last three starts.  He has the best weapons he's ever had in Jefferson, Addison, Hockenson, Nailor and Thielen.

Herbert has been doing this with a decimated offensive line.  But there's a chance he could get back one or both of his starting tacklers as both Joe Alt and Trey Pipkins returned to practice on a limited basis this week and will be questionable.  For the Vikings, there's a chance they get back RB Aaron Jones from injured reserve as he returned to practice this week, giving Wentz another weapon if he comes back.  Minnesota will be without LB Andrew Van Ginkel, one of their most important defenders.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Texans/Seahawks ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston +3.5

I love the spot for the Houston Texans this week.  They are coming off their bye week and they have found their groove after an 0-3 start to the season with three straight one-score losses where they breaks didn't go their way late in games.  They left no doubt in their last two games, crushing the Titans 26-0 at home and the Ravens 44-10 on the road.

I like the fact that CJ Stroud found his rhythm in those two games leading the Texans to 353 total yards against the Titans and then 417 against the Ravens while throwing 4 TD passes against Baltimore.  He is forming chemistry with several of his young talented receivers, and they should be even sharper on offense coming out of the bye week.

I also like the fact that the Texans have the best unit on the field, which is their defense.  The Texans rank 1st in the NFL in scoring defense at 12.2 points per game, 3rd in total defense at 265.8 yards per game and 5th at 4.9 yards per play.  They will wreak havoc in the opposing backfield against Sam Darnold, and I love that the Texans have one of the best shutdown corners in the league in Derrick Stingley to match up against Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who is far and away Darnold's favorite target this season.

This is a tough spot for the Seahawks.  They have alternated home and road games all season with a lot of travel involved.  Their trip to Jacksonville last week was as long as it gets, so they had to return home from that.  They have also played three straight one-score games that went down to the wire, so there have been no breaks for them.  And it's starting to show with the defense getting decimated by injuries.

CB Devon Witherspoon, FS Julian Love and CB Riq Woolen are all banged up with the first two questionable to make their returns this week.  LB Derick Hall is out and OT Josh Jones is questionable.  The Texans are the much healthier team coming into this one.

The Seahawks have huge home/road spits under Mike McDonald.  The Seahawks are actually 10-1 SU & 7-3-1 ATS in 11 road games under McDonald.  However, they are just 4-8 SU & 3-9 ATS in their 12 home games under him.  That includes outright losses to the 49ers and Bucs already this season with their lone home win coming against the lowly Saints.

The Texans will have 15 days in between games, and teams on the road in this spot at 20-11 ATS since 2003.  I don't think there is much separating these teams, so if you're going to give me +3.5 in an evenly matched game on the team with the massive rest advantage, plus fading the team with zero home-field advantage, I'm going to take it.  Bet the Texans Monday.

15* Bucs/Lions ABC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 52.5

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team right now with an elite offense and a banged up defense.  That's especially the case when they are playing at home in a dome as Jared Goff has always been better in his career with controlled conditions inside a dome.

The Lions are scoring 31.8 points per game overall and 43.0 points per game at home this season. They are fully healthy on offense, but that's not the case on defense.  Their secondary is absolutely decimated as they will be without three starters in CB Terrion Arnold, SS Brian Branch and FS Kerby Joseph.  Arnold's backup CB Avonte Maddox is out as well.  DT DJ Reader and DT Alim McNeil are both questionable and they are the Lions' two best run-stuffers.

Baker Mayfield is the MVP of the league to this point and will take advantage of this depleted Detroit secondary by being able to keep up with Goff in a shootout.  Mayfield leads a Bucs offense that ranks 6th in the NFL in scoring at 27.5 points per game.  This despite numerous injuries to all of his biggest playmakers on offense throughout the season.  It doesn't matter who is in there, Mayfield is going to find a way to move the football and score points.

That's why I'm not too concerned the Bucs will for sure be without Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin Jr. tonight.  They've been without Irving and Godwin Jr. for the majority of the season anyway.  Mike Evans is supposed to make his return from injury this week, and Emeka Egbuka is at least questionable.  Either way, I trust the healthy receivers in Evans, Shepard, Johnson, Miller and TE Otton to make plays against this Detroit secondary.

This Tampa Bay defense leaves a lot to be desired ranking 24th in the NFL allowing 25.2 points per game.  They allowed 27 points to the Jets, 31 to the Eagles, 35 to the Seahawks and 19 to the 49ers in their last four games coming in.  No question the Lions are going to get into the 30's with ease tonight, which will pave the way to us cashing this OVER 52.5 ticket because they aren't going to be able to stop the Bucs, either.  

The OVER is 4-0 in Bucs last four games overall with 56 or more combined points in three of those four games.  The OVER is 3-2 in Lions last five games overall with 61 or more combined points in three of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Falcons/49ers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Atlanta +3.5

The San Francisco 49ers are just too decimated with injuries right now to be favored over the Atlanta Falcons.  Combine that with the fact that the Falcons are arguably the most underrated team in the NFL when you break down the numbers, and I'm on them this week.  I grabbed this +3.5 prior to their game with the Bills last week expecting them to win that game outright, so the +3.5 wouldn't be there.  I was correct in that assumption, so all my long-term clients should have a better number than this game will close.  If you get less than +3 then just bet the Falcons on the Money Line, and/or use the Falcons in teasers with the Patriots and Vikings.

This San Francisco defense is one of the worst in the NFL in its current state.  The 49ers have allowed 26, 23 and 30 points in their last three games without Nick Bosa.  Now they will be without their heart and soul in Fred Warner, arguably the best LB in the league.  It's only going to get worse moving forward.

The 49ers allowed 30 points to the Bucs last week in a game they lost Warner midway through.  That was a Bucs offense playing without its three best receivers in Egbuka, Evans and Godwin as well.  So you can just imagine what this Falcons offense is going to do to the 49ers with elite playmakers in Robinson, London and Pitts.

The Falcons put up 24 points and 443 total yards on the Bills last week and really should have scored more.  This came after putting up 34 points and 435 total yards on the Commanders the game prior.  The Falcons rank 2nd in total offense at 378.8 yards per game and 10th at 5.7 yards per play.  They have as good of balance as any team in the NFL right now which makes them so tough to stop.

What gets slept on with the Falcons is just how improved their defense is this season.  They rank 1st in the NFL in total defense at 253.4 yards per game and 7th at 4.8 yards per play.  They did a great job of drafting pass rushers and they are making an immediate impact.  They held Josh Allen and the Bills to just 14 points last week on a fast track in Atlanta while sacking in four times.

The Falcons will make life tough on Mac Jones and this decimated 49ers offense as well.  Brock Purdy wasn't healthy enough to return this week, and they are still without Ricky Pearsall and Brandon Aiyuk.  Marquez Valdez-Scantling was just put on IR as well.

The Falcons are outgainng opponents by 125.4 yards per game and 0.9 yards per play on the season.  Those are elite numbers, making them one of the most underrated teams in the NFL when you compare how most books have them power rated.  They will continue to be a money maker moving forward, especially against a depleted 49ers team this week.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

20* Falcons/49ers NBC Total DOMINATOR on OVER 45.5

The San Francisco 49ers are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They continue to have a very good offense despite the injuries, but the defense is one of the worst in the NFL in its current state.  And now they are facing a Falcons team with an explosive offense and this has the makings of a shootout.

The 49ers are 4-1 OVER in their last five games finishing with 47 or more combined points in four of those five games.  They have allowed 26, 23 and 30 points in their last three games without Nick Bosa.  Now they will be without their heart and soul in Fred Warner, arguably the best LB in the league.  It's only going to get worse moving forward.

The 49ers allowed 30 points to the Bucs last week in a game they lost Warner midway through.  That was a Bucs offense playing without its three best receivers in Egbuka, Evans and Godwin as well.  So you can just imagine what this Falcons offense is going to do to the 49ers with elite playmakers in Robinson, London and Pitts.

The Falcons put up 24 points and 443 total yards on the Bills last week and really should have scored more.  This came after putting up 34 points and 435 total yards on the Commanders the game prior.  The Falcons rank 2nd in total offense at 378.8 yards per game and 10th at 5.7 yards per play.  They have as good of balance as any team in the NFL right now which makes them so tough to stop.

Mac Jones will get the start again this week and he has proven to be great working under Kyle Shanahan.  Jones threw for 347 yards against the Bucs, 342 yards against the Rams, 284 yards against the Cardinals and 279 yards against the Saints in his four starts.  This despite being without all of his top weapons at receiver.  But reinforcements are on the way now with both TE George Kittle and WR JuJuan Jennings expected to return from injury this week.  And he has already formed a great rapport with Kendrick Bourne.  Jones is ready to try and keep up with the Falcons in a shootout, which he is going to have to do with the Falcons scoring at will in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Commanders/Cowboys OVER 53.5

The Dallas Cowboys are a dead nuts OVER team and really should be 6-0 to the OVER this season instead of 4-2.  They combined with the Eagles for 41 points in the 1st half before a lightning delay took all of the wind out of the sails of the offenses.  They combined for 38 points in the 1H with the Bears but the Cowboys suffered a ton of injuries on offense in that game and Dak Prescott was pulled late.

In their four OVERS, the Cowboys went for 59 combined points with the Jets, 77 combined points with the Giants, 80 combined points with the Packers and 57 combined points with the Panthers to sail OVER those totals.  Four of their six games were played outdoors on grass, and the two games inside AT&T Stadium in perfect conditions were the 77 points with the Giants and the 80 with the Packers.

Dallas ranks 3rd in scoring offense at 29.7 points per game, 2nd in total offense at 387.5 yards per game and 6th at 6.2 yards per play.  What makes this even more impressive is the fact that the Cowboys have been playing most of the season without multiple starting offensive linemen, WR CeeDee Lamb and WR/KR KaVontae Turpin.  Well, the Cowboys are now as healthy as they have been all season on offense with Lamb and Turpin returning and four of their five starting offensive linemen expected to play.

What really makes the Cowboys a dead nuts OVER team is their defense, which cannot stop anyone.  The Cowboys rank 31st allowing 30.7 points per game, 32nd allowing 411.7 total yards per game and 30th allowing 6.3 yards per play.  They are without FS Hooker, CB Diggs and LB Overshown.  They allowed 30 points to Bryce Young and the Panthers, 37 to Russell Wilson and the Giants, 31 to Caleb Williams and the Bears and 40 to the Packers.

You can just imagine what this high-powered Washington offense is going to do to this Cowboys defense.  The Commanders rank 7th in scoring offense at 26.3 points per game despite battling through injuries themselves.  But QB Jayden Daniels is back and healthy, and this offense should thrive moving forward as long as he is in the lineup.

This Washington defense leaves a lot to be desired.  The Commanders rank 25th in total defense allowing 356.8 yards per game and 25th allowing 6.0 yards per play.  They have played a pretty easy schedule of opposing offenses as well in the Giants, Raiders, Bears and a banged up Chargers offense.  Against the two best offenses they have faced, they allowed 34 points and 435 total yards to the Falcons and 27 points and 404 total yards to the Packers.  The Cowboys will hang a big number on them today in what will be a big-time shootout.  The OVER is 9-3 in Cowboys last 12 home games.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Colts/Chargers OVER 48

The Indianapolis Colts are a dead nuts OVER team with an elite offense and terrible defense.  They have gone for 46 or more combined points with their opponents in five consecutive games, including 57 with the Broncos, 61 with the Titans and 58 with the Cardinals.  Those aren't exactly offensive juggernaut teams.

This Chargers offense may be the best offense the Colts have faced this season.  Justin Herbert has played at an MVP level despite injuries to the offensive line, which are getting better.  And now he gets WR Quentin Johnson (26 receptions, 377 yards, 4 TD) back this week after sitting out last week against the Dolphins, a 29-27 shootout win for the Chargers that saw 56 combined points.

No question the Colts have a potent offense with Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor having great seasons to this point.  They rank 1st in scoring offense at 32.3 points per game and 2nd at 6.4 yards per play.  But the Colts have a clear weakness on the other side of the ball despite facing a very easy schedule of opposing offenses.  They rank 19th in total defense at 329.2 yards per game and 16th at 5.6 yards per play.

The most glaring performance came last week when they allowed 25 first downs and 400 total yards to Jacoby Brissett and the Cardinals at home.  Brissett threw for 320 yards in the loss despite losing Marvin Harrison Jr. to injury early on.  The Colts were without their top three CB's in that game, and they will be without two of the three for this game with only Kenny Moore expected to return from an Achilles injury.  They will get torched again, and Jones will have to try and keep up in a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Minnesota Vikings +2.5

The Minnesota Vikings return from their bye week much healthier than they went into it.  They were without four starters on the offensive line in their 21-17 win over Cleveland in London.  Well, they could have all five healthy this week.  Green dot Blake Cashman makes his return on defense this week as well.  The Vikings are pretty much fully healthy coming into this game, and it's a big reason I'm on them.

But this is as much a fade of the Eagles as anything.  They were fortunate to open 4-0 this season with four one-score wins and some miracles along the way.  Their luck has run out the last two weeks, losing 21-17 at home to Denver before getting crushed 34-17 on the road by the Giants last week.  I think the Eagles are going through a Super Bowl hangover, and I question how much motivation they'll actually have to dig deep after winning it all last year.  That effort against the Giants last week following a loss to the Broncos says a lot.

The Eagles just aren't winning at the line of scrimmage this season, and I don't think it's fixable.  The Eagles rank 26th in rushing at 95.3 yards per game and 29th at 3.5 yards per carry, while ranking 26th against the run allowing 134.3 rushing yards per game and 24th at 4.7 yards per carry.  They have no passing game, either, ranking 28th in passing at 179.2 yards per game.  They are actually getting outgained by 68.3 yards per game on the season.  This is just not a good team this year.

While the Eagles average 4.8 yards per play on offense and allow 5.5 yards per play on defense getting outgained by 0.7 yards per play, the Vikings average 5.8 yards per play on offense and only allow 5.1 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 0.7 yards per play.  They are 1.4 net yards per play better than the Eagles despite all their injuries and having Carson Wentz at QB.  

Wentz should be even more comfortable in his 3rd start of the season, and no question he will be motivated for revenge on his former team this week.  The Vikings have confidence in him now after leading a 4th quarter comeback in that 21-17 win over the Browns in London.  He hit Jordan Addison for a 12-yard TD with 25 seconds left.  Wentz finished 25-of-34 passing for 236 yards and that TD in the win against what is one of the best defenses in the NFL in the Browns.

Jalen Hurts really struggles against defenses like the one Brian Flores runs, which is a lot of zone blitzes.  The Vikings rank 5th in scoring defense at 19.4 points per game and 6th in total defense at 289.8 yards per game.  Their defense will be the best unit on the field Sunday, and it's a big reason I like the Vikings as home underdogs here.  Bet the Vikings Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas City Chiefs -11.5

The Kansas City Chiefs have really transformed into a juggernaut offensively the last three weeks thanks to getting Xavier Worthy back healthy and in the lineup.  Their pass rate has skyrocketed since his return, and this is the most explosive the Chiefs have looked on offense in a few years.

Worthy made his return in a 37-20 home win over the Ravens three weeks ago.  He led the team with 5 receptions for 83 yards while also leading the team in rushing with 38 yards.  He came back with 6 receptions for 42 yards in a 31-28 loss to the Jaguars last week.  The Chiefs racked up 476 total yards in a very misleading defeat.  They ougained the Jaguars by 157 yards, but the difference was a 99-yard pick 6 by the Jaguars when the Chiefs were going in to score.

Last week, the Chiefs kept it rolling with a 30-17 win over the Lions.  That was their 3rd consecutive game scoring 30-plus points.  Now even more reinforcements are on the way as WR Rashee Rice makes his much-anticipated return from a 6-game suspension.  He is probably their most talented receiver, and he will open things up even more for everyone else.  The Chiefs are going to be a wagon moving forward.

If the Chiefs put up 30 points for a 4th consecutive week, they will easily cover this 11.5-point spread against the Raiders.  I fully expect them to do both.  The Raiders are absolutely lost offensively ranking 30th scoring 17.2 points per game.  Geno Smith has regressed, and he just doesn't have weapons due to poor management and injuries.

The Raiders could not afford to lose Brock Bowers, but they are without him right now.  Thyey also could be without their top WR in Jakobi Meyers.  I mean Smith is throwing to guys like Tre Tucker, Jack Bech, Justin Shorter and Dont'e Thornton Jr.  This is the worst receiver room in the NFL, and the Raiders just won't have what it takes to keep up with the Chiefs in this one.

The Raiders were crushed 41-24 by Marcus Mariota and the Commanders and 40-6 by Daniel Jones and the Colts in their last two road games.  That doesn't bode well for them to be able to keep up with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs this week.  The Chiefs also cannot afford to take their foot off the gas this week after suffering three early season losses, so they will be motivated.  Bet the Chiefs Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Carolina Panthers +1.5

You're going to hear a lot about how Bryce Young hasn't won on the road in the NFL.  But he hasn't face a team as bad as the Jets, and he hasn't been at the helm of a Panthers team as talented and healthy as the one he will be in charge of Sunday.  This is where Young and the Panthers get that elusive road win this week.

The Panthers are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last three games overall with their lone loss coming to the Patriots, who are as hot as they are right now.  They beat the Cowboys and Dolphins at home, and their 30-0 win over the Falcons may be the single most impressive win of the season when you look at what the Falcons have done outside of that game.

The Panthers are as healthy as they have been all season going into this week.  They get back RB Chuba Hubbard, who will form one of the best 1-2 punches in the league with Rico Dowdle, who has totaled over 200 yards from scrimmage two consecutive weeks in Hubbard's absence.  The offensive line is playing great, and they could get back C Austin Corbett who returned to practice this week.  WR Jalen Coker is expected to make his season debut, and he was Young's favorite target last season.  Young has already formed great chemistry with WR McMillan, WR Legette and TE Sanders and this will prove to be one of the best offenses in the league moving forward.

The most underrated unit is this Panthers defense, which ranks 9th in the NFL allowing just 308.3 yards per game despite a very tough schedule of opposing offenses to this point.  This Jets offense will be far and away the worst unit they have faced thus far.  The Panthers are nearly fully healthy on defense and get back CB Jaycee Horn this week.  The Jets are a run-heavy team, and the Panthers have been great against the run the last two weeks.  They held Achane of the Dolphins to 16 yards on 10 carries two weeks ago, and last week they held Williams of the Cowboys to 29 yards on 13 carries.  Everyone is sleeping on this Panthers defense.

The Jets are 0-6 SU this season.  They are coming off one of the most misleading results of the season in a 13-11 loss to Denver in London.  The were held to just 82 total yards by the Broncos and outgained by 164 yards.  They had a fumble and a KO return that set them up for short fields, where their offense was stopped and they settled for two short FG's.  They also got a safety.  It was one of the worst offensive performances I've ever seen.

Now the Jets are going to be without their best weapon in WR Garrett Wilson, who suffered an oblique injury late in that loss to the Broncos.  Their offense is going to be even worse as Wilson was the only bright spot on this offense up to this point.  Justin Fields is going to be throwing to the likes of Josh Reynolds, Arian Smith, Allen Lazard and Isaiah Davis.  This is a bad, bad offense.

The defense hasn't been much better.  The Jets are 28th in total offense at 279.8 yards per game and 27th at 5.0 yards per play.  The Jets are 28th in scoring defense allowing 28.3 points per game.  They allowed 34 points to the Steelers, 30 to the Bills, 29 to the Bucs, 27 to the Dolphins and 37 to the Cowboys.  That gives them a recent common opponent as the Jets lost 37-22 to the Cowboys two weeks ago at home, while the Panthers beat the Cowboys 30-27 at home last week.

This is a tough spot for the Jets as well returning home from London and having to deal with the jet lag.  They won't have any home-field advantage as fans are already fed up with this team.  And their two worse performances of the season came in their last two home games in a 20-point loss to the Bills and that 15-point loss to the Cowboys.  The Jets will not be getting their first win of the season this week.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Panthers Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on New England Patriots -6.5

Normally I wouldn't back a NFL team playing their third consecutive road game like the Patriots.  But this situation is not like most.  Mike Vrabel wants revenge on the franchise that fired him after their most successful stretch in franchise history.  The Titans have gone 4-19 SU & 4-19 ATS since Vrabel's departure, showing just how much he meant to this team.

Now the Titans fired Brian Callahan leading into this game, probably because they didn't want the embarrassment of having him as their head coach for another week.  But there will be zero dead cat bounce here as the Titans are just that bad.  They also lost one of the best offensive line coaches in NFL history as Bill Callahan left with Brian, and that's not good news for rookie Cam Ward moving forward.

Making matters worse for the Titans is that Ward's biggest playmaker on offensive in Calvin Ridley (16 receptions, 290 yards, 18.1 YPC) is going to be out for this game.  What is already the league's worst offense just got even worse without Ridley.  The Titans rank 31st in scoring offense at 13.8 points per game, 32nd in total offense at 232.3 yards per game and 32nd at 4.2 yards per play.

The Titans haven't even been competitive in their five losses this season, which have all come by 8 points or more.  They also should have never beaten the Cardinals as they would have been down 28-6 had Demarcado not dropped the ball going into the end zone celebrating a TD early.  So they really should be 0-6 with all six losses by 8 points or more.

The Patriots are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and really should be 5-0.  Their lone loss came to the Steelers where they committed five turnovers including two at the 1-yard line going in for scores.  They outgained the Steelers by 166 yards.  They upset both Buffalo and Miami on the road during this stretch, crushed the Panthers by 29 at home, and won and covered at New Orleans.  This is really one of the most underrated teams in the NFL.

This team loves playing for Vrabel and you can see it in their post game celebrations and comments.  He is the ultimate players' coach, getting the most out of every player on the roster.  Drake Maye has made the Year 2 leap and is easily a top 10 QB in the NFL already.  He leads a Patriots offense that is 11th in scoring at 25.0 points per game and 7th in passing at 244.5 yards per game.  The defense is 8th in scoring at 20.0 points per game as this is another great bend but don't break Patriots defense.  They will easily shut down this Tennessee offense this week.

The Titans are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 home games and have zero home-field advantage.  They already lost by 14 to the Rams and by 21 to the Colts at home this season, and it's going to be another blowout loss for them this week against in inspired New England team playing for revenge for Vrabel.  Bet the Patriots Sunday.

15* Rams/Jaguars NFL London Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 45

These are two of the better defenses in the NFL with the Jaguars ranking 8th in scoring defense at 20.0 points per game and the Rams 3rd at 18.3 points per game.  Both defenses should have their way with these two injury-plagued offenses in London Sunday morning.  That's especially the case with the forecast calling for a 100% chance of rain and double-digit winds.

The Rams have to be gutted to lose Puca Nacua to an ankle injury last week as he will miss this week as a result.  He has 54 receptions for 616 yards and 2 TD while also rushing for a score in only six games this season.  It's a big blow to the offense, which wasn't nearly as good last year when he was off the field.  Look for a heavy dose of Kyren Williams and the running game, which is also without his backup in Blake Corum and RT Rob Havenstein.

The Jaguars have faced two really good defenses this season and they were shut down in both games.  They were held to 17 points and 291 total yards by the Texans, and 12 points and 273 total yards by the Seahawks.  The Rams will have similar success in shutting them down, especially since they lost one of Trevor Lawrence's favorite targets in Brenton Strange to IR.

Both defenses are remarkably healthy right now and will win out in this defensive battle.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday morning.

15* Steelers/Bengals AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Cincinnati +5.5

The Cincinnati Bengals are 2-4 after four consecutive losses.  They are 2.5 games behind the Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1) but actually in second place in the division due to the struggles of the Ravens and Browns.  I think the Bengals will be 'all in' tonight as this is their last stand if they want any chance of winning the division.

The Bengals have played four of their first six games on the road against a tough schedule.  Even their two home games were tough, but they played well in both games beating the Jaguars 31-27 and losing to the Lions by 13 as 10.5-point dogs while only getting outgained by 43 yards.  This game Thursday night is the start of three consecutive home games for the Bengals.  The next two they host the Jets and Bears, so they could easily get on a 3-game winning streak here and get to 5-4 on the season and back in contention in the division.

The Steelers are overvalued after a 4-1 start to the season.  Last week, they had a huge rest advantage over the Browns who were coming back from London, while the Steelers were off their bye week.  I backed the Steelers in that game because of it and they delivered with a 23-9 win over Dillon Gabriel and the Browns, a rookie making his first career road start.

The Steelers have been far from impressive in their two road games this season.  They should have lost to the Jets in Week 1, winning 34-32 despite getting outgained 394 to 271, or by 123 total yards.  And we've seen how bad that win has aged considering the Jets are 0-6 now.  Their 21-14 win at New England was even more of a miracle considering they were outgained 369 to 203 by the Patriots, or by 166 total yards.  But they were +5 in turnovers including two turnovers at their 1-yard line when the Patriots were going in to score.

The Steelers may be the luckiest team in the NFL to this point.  They have actually recovered 83% of available fumbles, and you would expect that to be closer to 50% for every team in the NFL.  They have the numbers of a team that would be closer to 1-4 than 4-1.  The Steelers only average 277.8 yards pre game on offense and allow 355.6 yards per game on defense, actually getting outgained by 78 yards.

The Bengals were in a brutal spot last week starting Joe Flacco on a short week and facing a rested, pissed off Green Bay Packers team coming off their bye week.  They actually trailed by just 6 points late in the 4th quarter and had a chance to win that game as 14-point road underdogs.  Evan McPherson missed two FG's in that game as well, even one where he made it before a Packers timeout took it off the board as he went on to miss the ensuing try.

This might be the best set of weapons of Flacco's career, and he can get it done when he has weapons and should be more comfortable in the new offense this week.  He threw for 219 yards and 2 TD without an interception against a very good Packers defense on the road, and now he should be much more comfortable at home this time around.  He got the ball to those weapons as Chase finished with 10 receptions for 94 yards and a TD while Higgins had 5 receptions for 62 yards.  Their chemistry should be even better this week against a Steelers secondary that has some holes, allowing 245 passing yards per game and 65.8% completions to opposing QB's despite facing Justin Fields and Dillon Gabriel.

Mike Tomlin is 2-8 SU & 3-7 ATS in Thursday night road games in his career as the head coach of the Steelers.  He has been dreadful as a road favorite in his career as well.  Tomlin is 13-26-1 ATS as a favorite of 4 points or more since 2017.  It's time to 'buy low' on the Bengals and 'sell high' on the Steelers this week.  Bet the Bengals Thursday.

20* Bills/Falcons ESPN No-Brainer on Atlanta +5.5

The Atlanta Falcons may be the most underrated team in the NFL right now.  They had the fluky 30-0 loss to the Carolina Panthers where they kept turning the ball over deep in Carolina territory that is keeping them undervalued.  They actually outgained the Panthers by 108 yards and held them to 224 yards in the loss.

In fact, the Falcons have some of the best numbers in the NFL through four games despite their 2-2 record.  They rank 7th in totla offense at 362.8 yards per game and gain 5.6 yards per play, while ranking 1st in total defense at 244.0 yards per game and 3rd at 4.9 yards per play.  They are outgaining opponents by 119 yards per game and 0.7 yards per play this season.

Michael Penix Jr. came back with a big performance after that loss to the Panthers in leading the Falcons to a 34-27 home victory over the Commanders.  That win was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed as well as they gained 435 yards and allowed just 296 yards, outgaining the Commanders by 139 yards.  Penix Jr. went 20-of-26 for 313 yards and 2 TD against the Commanders, who have proven to have a very good defense this season.

The Bills are one of the most overrated teams in the NFL.  They are 4-1 this season but it has been far from impressive.  They were lucky to beat the Ravens overcoming a 15-point deficit in the final quarter to win by 1.  They took advantage of a Jets team that had QB Justin Fields knocked out early with a concussion in Week 2.  They were on the verge of losing to the Dolphins who had a chance to tie it late at home as 11.5-point favorites before a red zone INT.  And they were life and death in the 4th quarter with the lowly Saints as 14.5-point home favorites.

Their luck ran out last week as they were upset 23-20 as 8-point home favorites by the New England Patriots.  Drake Maye torched their defense for 273 passing yards, and this defense is the reason I think the Bills are overrated.  The Bills rank 18th in the NFL allowing 5.7 yards per play, and that has come against one of the easiest schedules of opposing offenses especially the last four weeks against the Pats, Saints, Dolphins and Jets.

This is a big step up in class for this Buffalo defense against an Atlanta offense that has no weaknesses.  The Falcons should be able to match the Bills score for score in this one.  The spot really favors the Falcons as they are coming off their bye week, while the Bills are coming off that physical division game against the Patriots last week.  This line suggests the Bills would be favored by 7 over the Falcons on a neutral, and there's just not that much separating these two teams.  This is a game Atlanta can win outright.  Bet the Falcons Monday.

20* MNF TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bills/Falcons OVER 47.5

Both the Falcons and Bills have benefited from playing an easy schedule of opposing offenses and quarterbacks this season.  That fact has kept this total lower than it should be, and I fully expect both offenses to have their way with these two defenses Monday night in a shootout in perfect conditions in the dome in Atlanta.

The Bills rank 3rd in scoring offense at 30.6 points per game, 3rd in total offense at 395.6 yards per game and 5th at 6.3 yards per play.  The Falcons rank 7th in total offense at 362.8 yards per game and are loaded with playmakers for Michael Penix Jr., who led the Falcons to a 34-27 home win over the Commanders for 61 combined points going into his bye week.

The Bills have faced the Patriots, Saints, Dolphins and Jets the last four weeks, which are four of the worst offenses in the NFL.  The Falcons have faced Marcus Mariota and the Commanders, Bryce Young and the Panthers and JJ McCarthy and the Vikings in their last three games.  It's safe to say both defenses will be taking a big step up in class this week, and it should lead to a back and forth shootout as a result.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Lions/Chiefs NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Kansas City ML -130

The Kansas City Chiefs have really transformed into a juggernaut offensively the last two weeks thanks to getting Xavier Worthy back healthy and in the lineup.  Their pass rate has skyrocketed since his return, and this is the most explosive the Chiefs have looked on offense in a few years.

Worthy made his return in a 37-20 home win over the Ravens two weeks ago.  He led the team with 5 receptions for 83 yards while also leading the team in rushing with 38 yards.  He came back with 6 receptions for 42 yards in a 31-28 loss to the Jaguars last week.  The Chiefs racked up 476 total yards in a very misleading defeat.  They ougained the Jaguars by 157 yards, but the difference was a 99-yard pick 6 by the Jaguars when the Chiefs were going in to score.

The Chiefs should be able to move the ball through the air at will on a banged up Detroit defense that is missing several key pieces in the secondary.  They have 5 players in the secondary on IR, they will be without starting CB Terrion Arnold, and starting safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph are both questionable.  Arnold's backup CB Avonte Maddux is questionable as well.

Jake Browning torched this banged up Lions secondary for 21 points in the 4th quarter alone last week, so you can just imagine what Mahomes and company are going to be able to do against this Detroit defense.  I love the fact that the Chiefs lost last week to fall to 2-3, so they will be extra motivated coming into this one.  They still have one of the biggest home-field advantages in the NFL and this is going to be an even bigger advantage for them in a Sunday night primetime game.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Detroit Lions after going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They have had some very misleading blowout wins and have feasted on a very weak schedule of Chicago, Baltimore, Cleveland and Cincinnati.  They only outgained Cleveland 277 to 249 at home, or by 28 yards.  They only outgained Cincinnati 365 to 322, or by 43 total yards.

This will be Detroit's toughest test by far since a 27-13 road loss to Green Bay in the opener.  While the Lions are 'fat and happy' off four straight convincing wins, the Chiefs are pissed off after losing a game they should have won against the Jaguars.  Patrick Mahomes has been elite in this spot as the Chiefs are 29-12-1 ATS in his career when favored by 3 points or less or as an underdog.  Bet the Chiefs on the Money Line Sunday night.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Bengals/Packers OVER 44

The Packers return from their bye week looking to take out their frustration on the Cincinnati Bengals.  I expect most of that frustration to be taken out on offense, where the Packers should score at will against one of the worst defenses in the NFL to pave the way in us cashing this OVER ticket.

The Packers went into their bye week in a 40-40 shootout tie with the Cowboys and 80 combined points.  Their offense should be even better out of the bye with a return to health along the offensive line.  There's a good chance they get LT Rasheed Walker, LG Aaron Banks and RT Zach Tom back in the lineup this week.  They remain without DT Devonte Wyatt defensively, a loss that is felt even more after trading away DT Frank Clark to the Cowboys.

The Bengals are a dead nuts OVER team due to their poor defense and all of their talent on offense, even without Joe Burrow.  They are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall combining for 61 points with Detroit, 58 with Minnesota and 58 with Jacksonville.  They rank 30th in scoring defense allowing 31.2 points per game and 30th in total defense allowing 391.2 yards per game.

Cincinnati has seen enough of Jake Browning, so it decided to trade for veteran Joe Flacco early in the week.  Christmas came early for Flacco getting out of Cleveland and their lack of weapons.  Now he gets to work with one of the best sets of weapons in the NFL led by WR Chase, WR Higgins and RB Brown.  He will get the most out of the weapons on hand, especially with his ability to throw the deep ball and open up more big plays in the passing game for this offense.

The Packers will score in the 30's or more in this one, and the Bengals will be able to get 14-plus to contribute to us cashing this OVER 44 ticket with ease.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Pittsburgh Steelers -4.5

This might be the toughest spot that any NFL team has to face this entire season.  For the first time in NFL history, an NFL team will be traveling back from London while having to go back on the road without having a bye week.  It's safe to say the Browns are completely gassed and won't have anything left in the tank for the Steelers, who are off their bye week to boot.

I've been looking to fade the Steelers early in the season because they aren't as good as their 3-1 record.  However, a big reason for that was because they were so banged up on defense.  But now they return from their bye week a lot healthier on defense, and this should get back to being one of the best defenses in the NFL which is the case every year under Mike Tomlin.

The Steelers were previously playing without LB Alex Highsmith, FS DeShon Elliott and CB Joey Porter Jr.  Now all three are back in the lineup this week, and the Steelers are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL coming out of their bye.  Aaron Rodgers will be even more comfortable in the new offense with his receivers and is primed for a big game here.

The Browns just lost to a depleted Vikings team that was missing three starters on the offensive line with Carson Wentz at QB.  He actually torched their previously dominant defense despite the offensive line limitations and his mobility limitations.  Rodgers gets the ball out of his hands as fast as any QB in the league, which will negate Cleveland's biggest strength in their pass rush.

This Cleveland offense is atrocious, and rookie Dillon Gabriel will be making his first career road start here.  Mike Tomlin is 30-6 SU in his career against rookie QB's, including 16-1 at home with the lone loss coming to Dak Prescott in 2016.  The Browns rank dead last (32nd) in scoring at 14.6 points per game, 27th in total offense at 288.2 yards per game and 31st at 4.5 yards per play this season.  Tomlin and this healthy Steelers defense will make life miserable on Gabriel for four quarters.

The Steelers have won 8 consecutive games coming off their bye week.  They are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven regular season games off a bye.  The Steelers are 21-0 SU in their last 21 regular season home meetings with the Browns.  Their domination of Cleveland continues this week given the massively favorable spot they are in.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Seahawks/Jaguars OVER 44

The Seattle Seahawks are a dead nuts OVER team right now due to all their injuries in the secondary.  They will be without three starters in the secondary again this week as CB Devon Witherspoon, CB Riq Woolen and FS Julian Love are all out for a second consecutive week.

Those injuries led to an absolute shootout last week as the Seahawks lost 38-35 at home to the Bucs for 73 combined points.  The Seahawks went for 463 yards but they allowed 426 yards to the Bucs.  Sam Darnold had one of the best games of his career to keep the Seahawks in it, going 28-of-34 for 341 yards and 4 TD in the loss.

The Bucs were without several of their best weapons and still torched this Seattle secondary as Baker Mayfield went 29-of-33 passing for 379 yards and 2 TD.  Now Trevor Lawrence will be in line for one of the best games of his career, especially playing with the confidence of leading the Jaguars to a 31-28 upset win over the Chiefs last week.

Lawrence went 18-of-25 passing for 221 yards and a TD while also leading the team with 54 rushing yards and two scores on the ground.  He is getting more and more comfortable in Liam Coen's offense, and keep in mind he led the Jaguars to a 26-21 upset win at San Francisco the week prior.  Those are two great defenses he just torched, and now he will be taking a big step down in class here against this Seattle defense in its current state.

After facing an easy schedule of opposing offenses through the first four weeks of the season, the Jaguars were torched for 476 total yards and 28 points by the Chiefs last week.  You can bet Darnold and this Seattle offense are going to have similar success here today in what will be a big-time shootout with both offenses ahead of both defenses.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* NFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Cowboys/Panthers OVER 48.5

The Dallas Cowboys are a dead nuts OVER team and really should be 5-0 to the OVER this season instead of 3-2.  They combined with the Eagles for 41 points in the 1st half before a lightning delay took all of the wind out of the sails of the offenses.  They combined for 38 points in the 1H with the Bears but the Cowboys suffered a ton of injuries on offense in that game and Dak Prescott was pulled late.

In their three OVERS, the Cowboys went for 59 combined points with the Jets, 77 combined points with the Giants and 80 combined points with the Cowboys to sail OVER those totals.  This total of 48.5 is too low for a game involving the Cowboys right now.

The Cowboys rank 1st in total offense at 406.6 yards per game and 4th in scoring offense at 30.2 points per game despite some key injuries on offense.  The Cowboys rank dead last (32nd) in total defense at 412 yards per game, 30th at 6.3 yards per play allowed and 29th in scoring at 30.8 points per game.  The loss of Micah Parsons has been felt, and they are without LB Overshown, LB Sanborn, FS Hooker and both starting CB's in Bland and Diggs are questionable for this game.

The Panthers are getting healthier on offense and have some real talent on that side of the ball.  McMillian and Legette are two great receivers, and now TD Ja'Tavion Sanders is expected to return this week.  Jalen Coker was Bryce Young's favorite target last season, and he could make his season debut this week as he returned to practice from IR.  Rico Dowdle rushed for 206 yards in place of Chuba Hubbard last week, and now he is going to want revenge on his former team in the Cowboys and should be in line for another big game.

The Panthers are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall and if not for a fluky shutout win against Atlanta where the Falcons kept turning the ball over deep in Carolina territory, it would be 4-0.  They went for 51 combined points with Miami, 49 with Arizona and 55 with New England.  So this total of 48.5 is also pretty low for a game involving the Panthers right now.  Both teams have very poor defenses that will be exposed by two underrated offenses.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rams/Ravens OVER 45

This total has been adjusted too low for the fact that Lamar Jackson is out for the Baltimore Ravens.  I would argue the defensive injuries for the Ravens are just as, if not more impactful to the Ravens' performance in this game.  We'll take advantage of the extra value and back the OVER 45 Sunday as they host the Los Angeles Rams.

The Ravens are pretty much fully healthy on offense outside of Lamar.  QB Cooper Rush is one of the best backup quarterbacks in the NFL.  Rush hasn't had the kind of weapons to work with that he will have in the Ravens.  This offense is absolutely loaded and remains one of the best offenses in the NFL even with Rush at QB.  He should be much more comfortable in his 2nd start in this offense this week.

The injuries on defense are much more daunting.  The Ravens will be without LB Roquan Smith, CB Chidobe Awuzie, and DE Nnamdi Madubuike, and they just traded away LB Odafe Oweh.  It's no wonder the Chiefs finally got their offense going scoring 37 points against this Baltimore defense two weeks ago.  And a previously dead Houston offense came to life last week scoring 44 points on 417 total yards against the Ravens.

The Ravens have arguably the worst defense in the NFL in their current state.  They rank dead last (32nd) in scoring defense allowing 35.4 points per game and 31st in total defense at 408.8 yards per game.  If the Chiefs and Texans can torch this defense for 37 and 44 points, respectively, you can just imagine what this high-octane Rams offense is going to do to them this week.

The Rams rank 2nd in total offense at 401.8 yards per game and 2nd at 6.5 yards per play.  This despite playing a pretty tough schedule of opposing defenses in the Texans, Titans, Eagles, Colts and 49ers to this point.  This will be by far the worst defense they have faced this season.

The Rams are 3-1 OVER in their last four games and would have gone OVER this total of 45 in all four.  They combined for 49 points with the 49ers, 47 with the Colts, 59 with the Eagles and 52 with the Titans.  Mac Jones torched them last week for 26 points, the Colts had two TD's taken off the board, the Eagles torched them for 33 points, and even the Titans put up 19 points against this defense that has clearly taken a step back this season.  

The Ravens are 5-0 OVER in all games this season combining for 81 points with Buffalo, 58 with Cleveland, 68 with Detroit, 57 with Kansas City and 54 with Houston.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Broncos/Jets NFL London Early ANNIHILATOR on Denver -7

Note: I also love a 6-point teaser with the Broncos -1/Rams -1 Sunday.

The Denver Broncos are 3-2 but could easily be 5-0.  They let the Colts off the hook, turning a 2-point win into a 1-point loss after getting a leverage penalty when the Colts missed the game-winning 60-yard FG.  The Colts proceeded to make it from 45 at the buzzer.  They also lost a back-and-forth road game with the Chargers, 23-20.

The Broncos have the numbers of a team that should be 4-1 or better.  They rank 10th in total offense at 355.2 yards per game and 5.6 per play on offense, and they rank 2nd in scoring defense at 16.8 points per game and 5th in total defense allowing 288.6 yards per game.  They have one of the best defenses in the NFL and a shutdown corner in Patrick Surtain who will take away the New York Jets' only real weapon at receiver in Garrett Wilson.

The Jets are an absolute dumpster fire this season.  They are the only remaining winless team at 0-5 this season.  They were just blown out by an injury-ravaged Cowboys team 37-22 at home last week, a Cowboys team playing without 3 starting offensive linemen and two of their best weapons on offense in Lamb and Turpin.  Bo Nix and company should torch this Jets defense that ranks 31st in scoring allowing 31.4 points per game.

Justin Fields is 0-26 as a starter when his defense allows 20 or more points.  The Jets are going to allow much more than 20 points in this one.  Fields is so predictable as he just cannot beat teams with his arm.  And now with Surtain taking away Wilson, this Jets offense is even in more of a world of hurt.  Wilson has been targeted just 7 times in 3 career games against Surtain, finishing with 3 receptions for 34 yards and a INT by Surtain.  Backup receivers Irvin Charles and Alan Lazard are out for this one, and losing RB Braelon Allen is a big blow as the Jets had a great 1-2 punch with him and Breece Hall in the backfield prior.

Denver's 21 sacks lead the NFL entering Week 6.  14 of the 21 sacks have come without blitzing.  Their 84 sacks in 2024 were 22 more than the next-closest team.  The Jets have allowed 16 sacks, which is the fourth-most in the league.  They have lost 132 yards on those sacks, the 2nd-highest mark in the league.  They will once again have too many negative plays that will kill them offensively this week as Fields continues to hold onto the ball too long.

Sean Payton is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in international games in his career covering the spread by an average of 12 points per game in those two games.  I love that he has experience with it, while rookie head coach Aaron Glenn looks like he is in over his head already and won't have his players ready to handle the travel as well as Payton will.

Favorites are 37-14-1 SU & 33-19 ATS in international games.  The Broncos have actually had no problem blowing out opponents over the last two seasons, which is why I'm willing to lay this big of a number.  In fact, the Broncos are 13-9 SU in the regular season over the last two seasons with 12 of those 13 wins coming by 8 points or more!  Bet the Broncos Sunday.

15* Eagles/Giants NFC East ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 42.5

The Philadelphia Eagles are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They have no passing game and their rushing game has been non-existent as well.  The Eagles rank 30th in total offense at 261.6 yards per game and 29th at 4.7 yards per play.  They are averaging just 3.5 yards per rush and 5.8 yards per pass.

The New York Giants are a dead nuts UNDER team in their current state.  They are running the football more with a mobile QB in Jaxson Dart.  They went for 39 combined points with the Chargers and 40 with the Saints in his first two starts.  Making matters much tougher on Dart is the fact that he is without his two best weapons at receiver in Malik Nabers and Darius Slayton.  The Giants are scoring just 17.4 points per game this season ranking 28th in scoring offense.

The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between the Eagles and Giants with 33, 31 and 37 combined points.  This total of 42.5 has been set too high tonight, and we'll take advantage.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

25* MNF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Chiefs/Jaguars OVER 44.5

The Kansas City Chiefs will have a dangerous offense moving forward.  They just got Xavier Worthy back from injury last week, and promptly put up 37 points on the Ravens.  Patrick Mahomes threw 4 TD passes, Worth had 5 receptions for 83 yards and 2 carries for 38 yards, and this looked like one of the best offenses in the NFL.

Worthy just opens things up for everyone else.  Defenses have to account for his speed and also his ability to run the football.  Pretty soon the Chiefs will get Rashee Rice back from suspension and they will be virtually unstoppable on offense.

The Jaguars are a much more potent offense this season under head coach Liam Coen, who was behind Baker Mayfield's career year in Tampa Bay last season as their offensive coordinator.  Now he is working wonders on Trevor Lawrence, who would have even bigger numbers this season if his receivers didn't drop more passes than any other team in the league thus far.

Even with those drops, the Jaguars rank 16th in scoring at 24.0 points per game and 10th in total offense at 348.5 yards per game.  Lawrence is playing behind one of the most improved offensive lines in the NFL, one that is paving the way for the 4th-most rushing yards per game (144) and 5.0 yards per carry behind the one-two punch of Etienne and Tuten.  The Jaguars put up 26 points on the 49ers last week, who have one of the best defenses in the NFL.

The Jaguars have solid defensive numbers this season, but it is largely due to playing one of the weakest schedules of opposing defenses in the NFL.  They have faced the Panthers, the Bengals with Jake Browning, the Texans and the 49ers with all their injuries on offense.  This is a huge step up in class for their defense, and I expect them to get exposed for the mediocre unit that they really are Monday night against Worthy, Mahomes and this now potent KC offense.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Patriots/Bills NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on New England +8

The New England Patriots are buying into Mike Vrabel and he is getting the most out of them already in his first season on the job.  I still believe he's one of the best head coaches in the NFL in terms of getting the most out of his players.  And now they have a big opportunity to show the world on the national stage on NBC's Sunday Night Football.  I expect them to take full advantage.

The Patriots have great numbers averaging 25.5 points per game on offense and allowing 20.3 points per game on defense.  They have also been great on special teams, which is a staple of Vrabel-coached teams and a hidden advantage they have.  Drake Maye has taken that leap in Year 2, completing 74% of his passes for 988 yards with a 7-to-2 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for two scores.

The Buffalo Bills are 'fat and happy' after a 4-0 start.  They have been far from impressive.  They were lucky to beat the Ravens overcoming a 15-point deficit in the final quarter to win by 1.  They took advantage of a Jets team that had QB Justin Fields knocked out early with a concussion in Week 2.  They were on the verge of losing to the Dolphins who had a chance to tie it late at home as 11.5-point favorites before a red zone INT.  And last week they were life and death with the lowly Saints as 14.5-point home favorites.

While the Patriots are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL likely not being without a single starter this week, the Bills are banged up.  They have five defensive linemen who are out or questionable and two starting LB's questionable on defense.  RT Spencer Brown is questionable for this one as well.  The Bills are outgaining opponents by 0.8 yards per play, but they have played the league's easiest schedule to this point, too.

The Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Bills pulling the outright upset at home last year, with their three losses coming by 3, 6 and 4 points.  This line should be less than a TD, so getting +8 with New England is a great value as I expect it to be decided by a single score either way.  Bet the Patriots Sunday.

25* NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Seattle Seahawks ML -140

Both the Seattle Seahawks and Tampa Bay Bucs are 3-1 this season, but these 3-1 starts are not created equal.  The Seahawks have been dominant in their three wins, and they could be 4-0 but lost a coin flip game to the 49ers in Week 1.  The Bucs could easily be 0-4 as their three wins all came on game-winning drives from Baker Mayfield in the final seconds.

While the Seahawks are outscoring opponents by 11.0 points per game averaging 27.8 points per game on offense and allowing 16.8 points per game on defense, the Bucs are dead even in scoring margin.  Their three wins came by a combined 6 points, and their lone loss came by 6 points at home to the Eagles last week.

The Seahawks have the rest advantage after beating the Cardinals on the road last Thursday, and they are certainly the much healthier team heading into this one.  And it's the poor health of the Bucs that is is the biggest reason I am fading them this week.

The Bucs will be without six starters this week in WR Mike Evans, RB Bucky Irving, RT Luke Goedeke, RG Cody Mauch, CB Jamel Dean and DE Caljah Kancey.  Baker Mayfield continues to play through injury as his offensive line just can't protect him, and he's taking more hits than ever trying to extend plays with his legs.  The Bucs are also without key depth pieces in WR Jalen McMillan, CB Benjamin Morrison and SS Christian Izien.  They are without five guys in all in the secondary.

The Seahawks are without three starters on defense, but they are fully healthy on offense, and Sam Darnold is proving that his run with the Minnesota Vikings last year was no fluke.  I trust Darnold and this offense to be able to move the ball through the air with ease against this soft Tampa Bay secondary, and for this Seattle defense that has shown it has lots of depth and will make life tough on Mayfield.  

Seattle blitzes at the lowest rate in the NFL, consistently getting a pass rush with 4 guys and playing coverage behind it.  Mayfield is better against man-to-man schemes where he can use his legs.  Seattle will have a spy on him running at all times after watching film, and I expect a few interceptions from Mayfield trying to fit balls into tight windows in the zone.  He is due some turnovers as he has the most turnover-worthy plays of any QB in the NFL to this point.

The furthest flight in the NFL is from Tampa Bay to Seattle, and vice versa.  That makes this a tough road trip for the Bucs with the long travel.  Seattle still has one of the better home-field advantages in the NFL, especially when they are good, which is the case this season as they will be going for first place in the NFC West with a win here.  Bet the Seahawks on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Cowboys/Jets OVER 46

The Dallas Cowboys are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have the 2nd-worst defense in the NFL and the 2nd-best offense in the NFL statistically.  They rank 31st in scoring defense at 33.0 points per game, 31st in total defense at 420.5 yards per game, 5th in scoring offense at 28.5 points per game and 2nd in total offense at 404.2 yards per game.

The Jets also have a terrible defense ranking 30th allowing 30.0 points per game this season.  Both offenses should have their way in this one, and this total of 46 is too low for a game involving the Jets and Cowboys.  The weather looks great for a shootout with temps in the 80's, no wind and no precipitation in New York Sunday afternoon.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dolphins/Panthers OVER 45

The Dolphins and Panthers are both dead nuts OVER teams with awful defenses and respectable offenses.  This total of 45 has been set too low, especially with the forecast looking perfect for a shootout with temps in the 70's, less than 10 MPH winds and no precipitation in Carolina Sunday.

The Dolphins rank 26th in scoring defense allowing 29.5 points per game, 25th in total defense allowing 378.8 yards per game and 31st allowing 6.6 yards per play.  They remain without CB Storm Duck, and not having him is a big loss going up against one of the best rookie receivers in the NFL in Carolina's Tetairoa McMillan.

Carolina ranks 19th in scoring defense allowing 23.8 points per game, 19th in total defense at 327.5 yards per game and 25th at 5.9 yards per play.  They have even benefited from a fluky shutout win over the Falcons to pad those stats, plus the fact that they have been getting blown out in their other three games so opposing offenses have been very vanilla late in games against them protecting big leads.

This figures to be a competitive back and forth game with neither offense taking their foot off the gas.  Miami is currently a 1-point favorite over Carolina.  Injuries to this Carolina defense are a big reason Miami is favored on the road.  The Panthers will be without DE Tershawn Wharton and NB Chau Smith-Wade, plus LB D.J. Wonnum, DE LaBryan Ray and NT Came Jackson are all questionable.

I know the Dolphins will be without Tyreek Hill, but they just got TE Darren Waller into the lineup for the first time against the Jets last week and he made an immediate impact with two TD receptions from Tua.  Their chemistry will only keep getting better moving forward, and this offense still has plenty of playmakers to help make up for the loss of Hill.  The Dolphins have scored 27, 21 and 27 points in their last three games and should get in that ball park this week.

The Panthers have scored 22 and 30 points in two of their last three games and should be able to get in that ball park in this one as well.  I like the fact that both McMillan and Xavier Legette are healthy, which are Bryce Young's two best weapons.  And this will be the weakest defense that Young has faced yet this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Texans ML -130

The Ravens have arguably the worst defense in the NFL in their current state.  They rank dead last (32nd) in scoring defense allowing 33.2 points per game and 30th in total defense at 406.8 yards per game.  And it's going to be no surprise to see the Houston Texans finally get their offense going this week just like the Chiefs did last week.

The Ravens will be without LB Roquan Smith, CB Marlon Humphrey, CB Chidobe Awuzie, and DE Nnamdi Madubuike, plus S Kyle Hamilton (groin) and LB Odafe Oweh (eye) are both questionable.  It's no wonder the Chiefs finally got their offense going scoring 37 points against this Baltimore defense last week.

The Texans are coming off their best offensive output of the season scoring 26 points on what is a very good Tennessee Titans defense.  They had 353 total yards with a nice mix of run and pass, rushing for 129 yards and throwing for 224.  They found a RB with some explosiveness in Woody Marks, who had 17 carries for 69 yards and a touchdown, while also catching 4 balls for 50 yards and a score.  They have one of the deepest WR rooms in the league, and CJ Stroud should keep getting more and more comfortable with these new guys this week.

Now the Ravens are without QB Lamar Jackson who is worth as much to the point spread as any QB in the NFL.  The Ravens are off to a 1-3 start even with a healthy Jackson, and it's because he has been forced to try and keep up in shootouts due to an awful defense.  I like Cooper Rush as a backup, but it's a clear downgrade and the Ravens will be much easier to defend not having to worry about Lamar's dual-threat ability.

The Texans have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  They rank 1st in scoring defense allowing 12.8 points per game, 6th in total defense allowing 280.5 yards per game and 7th at 4.9 yards per play.  This line has moved a lot, but it hasn't moved enough.  Houston is favored for good reason.  Bet the Texans on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Jets +2.5

The New York Jets could easily be 2-2 instead of 0-4.  But that 0-4 record has them undervalued as home underdogs to the Dallas Cowboys Sunday.  The Jets had a chance to win three of the four games they played this season with the exception of their 30-10 loss to the Bills in which they lost QB Justin Fields to a concussion in the 1H and never recovered.

The Jets outgained the Steelers 394 to 271, or by 123 total yards in their 34-32 loss in Week 1.  The Bucs needed a game-winning FG drive to beat them 29-27 at home with Tyrod Taylor at QB.  Fields returned last week in a 27-21 loss at Miami in which the Jets outgained the Dolphins 404 to 300, or by 104 total yards.  But they were -3 in turnovers and had 13 penalties, yet still had a chance to win late.  These are all errors that are easily correctable, and I expect a much more disciplined effort from the Jets this week as they are highly motivated for that first victory.

The Cowboys are coming off their 'Super Bowl' in a 40-40 tie with the Packers in the Micah Parsons revenge game.  They had to go an extra 10 minutes in OT and could still be feeling the after-affects of that tie.  They are certainly hurting in the injury department coming out of that game, which is one of the biggest reasons I'm fading the Cowboys here.

The Cowboys will be without WR CeeDee Lamb, LT Tyler Guyton, RG Tyler Booker, C Cooper Beebee and WR/KR KaVontae Turpin.  LG Tyler Smith is questionable, so they will be without at least three starters on the offensive line and two of their biggest playmakers.  They will also be without FS Malik Hooker who landed on IR after leaving that Packers game, and LB Kenneth Murray Jr. is questionable.  What a mess.

The Cowboys rank 31st in scoring defense at 33.0 points per game, 31st in total defense at 420.5 yards per game and 30th allowing 6.5 yards per play.  They legitimately have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  The Jets have a competent defense allowing 330.3 yards per game and 5.5 yards per play.  And Justin Fields is back and healthy and getting more comfortable in this new offense each week.  He and Breece Hall should have a field day on the ground against this Dallas defense.  Bet the Jets Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Denver Broncos +4.5

The Philadelphia Eagles are fortunate to be 4-0 this season.  They are 4-0 in one score games.  They beat Dallas by 4 at home, Kansas City by 3 on the road, the Rams by 7 at home only after blowing a FG and returning it for a TD on the final play with a 1-point lead, and beat the banged up Bucs by 6 on the road last week.

The Eagles have the numbers of a team that should be 1-3 and not one that is 4-0.  They average 4.3 yards per play on offense and allow 5.5 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by 1.2 yards per play.  I realize the tush push hurts the offensive YPP, but this is still a bad offense with little to no passing game averaging 138 passing yards per game and 5.5 per attempt.

The Broncos are 2-2 but could easily be 4-0.  They let the Colts off the hook, turning a 2-point win into a 1-point loss after getting a leverage penalty when the Colts missed the game-winning 60-yard FG.  The Colts proceeded to make it from 45 at the buzzer.  They also lost a back-and-forth road game with the Chargers, 23-20.

The Broncos have the numbers of a team that should be 3-1 or better.  They average 354.5 yards per game and 5.7 per play on offense, and allow 285.3 yards per game and 5.0 per play on defense.  They are outgaining opponents by 69 yards per game and 0.7 per play.  They have one of the best defenses in the NFL and a shutdown corner in Patrick Surtain who will take away AJ Brown.

This looks like the letdown spot for the Eagles after four straight huge games.  They beat their division rival Cowboys in Week 1, had their Super Bowl rematch with the Chiefs in Week 2, had their NFC playoffs rematch with the Rams in Week 3, and last week were playing with double-revenge against the Bucs and got their revenge.  They won't be as motivated to beat the Broncos as they were those four teams, and they are 'fat and happy' after this 4-0 start.  The Broncos are motivated to beat the defending champs and it will show on the field.  Bet the Broncos Sunday.

20* 49ers/Rams NFC West No-Brainer on Los Angeles -3

I grabbed the Rams -3 Sunday night with the anticipation this line would move their way once the 49ers injury information came out later in the week.  This is now a great bet with the Rams currently as -7.5 to -9 favorites as of this writing Wednesday night.  If you missed out on the Rams -3 early in the week, I would recommend teasing the Rams down to -1.5 with the Jets +8.5 and/or the Commanders +8.5.  The Rams are going to win this game, so you can still get some value out of them with teasers if you missed out on the -3.

The 49ers' injury situation is even worse than anticipated.  I knew Brock Purdy, Rickey Pearsall and Josh Jennings would all be questionable at best.  Well, all three have been ruled out.  The 49ers will have to go back to Mac Jones, and he won't have anyone to throw to as Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle are also out.  Their top three receivers are going to be Kendrick Bourne, Demarcus Robinson and Skyy Moore.

The Rams have one of the best defenses in the NFL allowing 20.3 points per game, 284.5 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play this season.  They could easily be 4-0 as they blew a double-digit lead over the Eagles and had their game-winning FG attempt blocked and returned for a TD when they were trailing by a single point.  The 49ers won't be able to get much offensively against this Rams defense.

The 49ers also lost their best defender in DE Nick Bosa to a torn ACL.  The Jaguars ripped their defense for 26 points last week.  The 49ers could easily be 0-4 as their three wins came over the Seahawks by 4, the Saints by 5 and the Cardinals by 1.  They should feel fortunate to be 3-1 right now with some room to spare.  They can afford to lose this game, and they certainly will as this is a big step up in class for them.  

It's a terrible spot for the 49ers on the short week as one of the most injury-ravaged teams in the NFL, while the Rams are one of the healthiest.  Sean McVay thrives in this situation, going 8-2 SU in Thursday night games in his tenure with Los Angeles.  Bet the Rams Thursday.

20* Bengals/Broncos ABC No-Brainer on OVER 43.5

The Cincinnati Bengals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have some of the best playmakers in the league on offense which will help out Jake Browning.  But they also have one of the worst defenses in the NFL and keep getting shredded.

The Bengals rank 28th in scoring defense allowing 30.3 points per game.  After holding the lowly Browns in check in Week 1, the Bengals allowed 27 points to the Jaguars and 48 points to the Vikings the last two weeks.  I fully expect Denver to hang a big number on this poor Cincinnati defense.

The Broncos have clearly slipped a little defensively this season after benefiting from an extremely easy schedule of opposing offenses last year.  They allowed 29 points and 473 total yards to the Colts two weeks ago and 23 points and 376 total yards to a banged up Chargers offense last week.  

I think Browning and company will do enough to help us cash this OVER 43.5 ticket in what will likely be in the ball park of a 30-20 win for Denver.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Jets/Dolphins ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 44

These are two of the worst defenses in the NFL and this total of 44 is too short as a result.  The Dolphins rank 30th in scoring defense allowing 32.3 points per game, 27th in total defense allowing 370.3 yards per game and 30th allowing 6.3 yards per play.  The Jets rank 29th in scoring defense allowing 31.0 points per game.

The Jets allowed 29 points to the Bucs, 30 to the Bills and 34 to the Steelers.  The Dolphins allowed 33 points tot he Colts, 33 to the Patriots and 31 to the Bills.  The OVER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings with 47 or more combined points in five of those seven and 52 or more in four of them.

The Jets will get Justin Fields back from a concussion Monday night that will really help out their offense.  They also get back starting WR Josh Reynolds.  The Dolphins have managed to stay fully healthy on offense with all of their top playmakers available tonight.  Both offenses are a lot healthier than these defenses.

The Dolphins will be without CB Storm Duck, who is among six defensive backs that are out with injury for Miami.  They are extremely thin in the secondary.  The Jets have five defenders on IR and will be without starting DE Jermaine Johnson.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Packers/Cowboys NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Green Bay -6.5

The Green Bay Packers should be 3-0 and if they were they probably wouldn't be less than 7-point favorites to the Dallas Cowboys.  While the Packers are legitimately one of the best teams in the NFL this season, the Cowboys are one of the worst.

The Packers will want to win this game for Micah Parsons.  They will also want to win this game simply because they have a bye on deck next week, and they are coming off an upset loss to the Browns to add to their motivation.  Look for a big effort from the Packers in this one.

The Packers have the best defense in the NFL to this point allowing just 232.3 yards per game and 3.9 yards per play.  The Cowboys have one of the worst, allowing 30.7 points per game, 397.7 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play.  And that will be the difference in this game.

The Cowboys are so bad that they allowed Russell Wilson to light them up for 37 points and 506 total yards two weeks ago.  Wilson and the Giants have been dreadful offensively in their other two games against the Commanders and Chiefs, scoring a total of 15 points in those two games combined.

The Cowboys went on to allow 31 points to Caleb Williams and the Bears last week.  Williams looked terrible against the Vikings and Lions in his first two games.  Jordan Love isn't hitting on all cylinders yet, but he's going to look like the best QB in the NFL against this soft, banged up Cowboys defense.

Injuries are a big problem for the Cowboys right now.  The biggest is the injury to star WR CeeDee Lamb.  The Cowboys were lost offensively without him last week only scoring 14 points against one of the worst defenses in the NFL in the Bears.  Dallas is going to be without two starters on the offensive line in C Cooper Beebe and RG Tyler Booker as well.

Dak Prescott will be running for his life against this fierce Green Bay pass rush up against this makeshift Dallas offensive line.  The Cowboys are likely to get both CB DaRon Bland and CB Trevon Diggs back from injury this week, but both are banged up, as is DT Kenny Clark who had to leave the Chicago game with an injury.

The Packers own the Cowboys going 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Home underdogs do not fare well in games officiated by Ron Torbert.  Indeed, home underdogs are 16-36 ATS in the last 52 games with Torbert as the head official.  Bet the Packers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5

The 49ers could easily be 0-3 instead of 3-0.  Their three wins came over the Seahawks by 4, the Saints by 5 and the Cardinals by 1.  They are overvalued due to that 3-0 start, and this is a terrible spot for them this week.  They are coming off that 1-point win over division rival Arizona and sit in 1st place alone in the NFC West.  They have an even bigger divisional game on deck Thursday against the Rams, and they want to make sure they are as healthy as possible for that game as it's much more important.  This is a clear letdown spot for the 49ers.

San Francisco is snake bitten by injuries, too.  The 49ers are without Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and Nick Bosa which are three of their best players.  Brock Purdy will be playing through toe and shoulder injuries, and his current top two receivers in Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings are both questionable.  The offensive line cannot create any running lanes for Christian McCaffrey, and this is really a broken offense right now scoring just 19.7 points per game despite the 3-0 start.

The 49ers have been relying on defense thus far, and they will try to turn this into another defensive battle.  But this will be their first game without Bosa, and their defense is sure to get tested this week after facing three sub-par offenses in the Seahawks, Saints and Cardinals.

The Jaguars are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now.  The only starter questionable is WR Dyami Brown.  The Jaguars are 2-1 and should be 3-0 as they blew a late lead to the Bengals.  They have elite numbers averaging 356.3 yards per game and 5.5 yards per play on offense, while allowing 17.0 points per game, 292 yards per game and 4.9 per play on defense.  This is one of the most improved defenses in the NFL.

The offense even has a lot more room for improvement because Trevor Lawrence has had his receivers drop passes at the highest rate in the NFL.  They will get that shored up, and this offense will continue to improve rapidly under first-year head coach Liam Coen, who was responsible for Baker Mayfield's career season in Tampa Bay last year.  I fully expect Jacksonville to win this game outright, but we'll take the 3.5 points for some added insurance.  Bet the Jaguars Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Eagles -2.5

The Philadelphia Eagles are beating everyone except the Tampa Bay Bucs over the last few seasons.  They were knocked out of the playoffs two years ago by the Bucs, and they lost to the Bucs again in the regular season last year.  So there will be no letdown here for the Eagles as they want some serious revenge on this team.

The Eagles were extremely banged up in their last two losses to the Bucs, but now the Bucs are the team that is banged up while the Eagles are healthy, and they are going to get their revenge as a result.

The Bucs could easily be 0-3 instead of 3-0.  They have needed three game-winning drives by Baker Mayfield to beat the Falcons by 3, the Texans by 1 and the Jets by 2.  Mayfield has been able to cover up many of their flaws against suspect competition, but he won't be able to cover them up this week against the defending Super Bowl champs.

The Bucs are without two starting offensive linemen in RT Luke Goedeke and RG Cody Mauche.  LT Tristan Wirfs is questionable and not 100%.  WR Mike Evans went out with a hamstring injury last week and has been ruled out.  QB Mayfield is questionable with a biceps injury.  WR Jalen McMillan is out, and WR Chris Godwin may make his season debut this week but is coming off a torn ACL and may only be a shell of his former self.  The Bucs are without their best pass rusher in D Calijah Kancey, and DE Logan Hall is questionable.

The Eagles are fully healthy on offense and got their passing game going finally last week in a comeback win over the Rams.  They are without LB Nakobe Dean and LB Nolan Smith Jr., but they are deep at the position.  They are without CB Adoree Jackson, but he's one of of the worst corners in the league and I actually think they will be better off without him.  Bet the Eagles Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on New England Patriots -5

It's time to 'buy low' on the New England Patriots off a misleading 21-14 loss to the Steelers last week, and 'sell high' on the Carolina Panthers after a misleading 30-0 win over the Falcons last week.  This is the perfect storm for value, and the Patriots are going to easily win this game by a TD or more Sunday to get us the cover.

The Patriots gave the game away against the Steelers by committing 5 turnovers including two at the 1-yard line when they were going in for touchdowns, taking 14 points off the board right there.  They dominated the stats outgaining the Steelers 369 to 203, or by 166 total yards.  I trust in head coach Mike Vrabel to correct the mistakes, and I expect his team to respond in a big way this week.

The Panthers are 'fat and happy' after nabbing their first win of the season in a 30-0 win over the Falcons last week.  They were actually outgained 334 to 224 by the Falcons, or by 110 total yards.  But they benefited from three turnovers including a pick-6.  The Falcons took the Panthers lightly coming off their 22-6 win over the Vikings on Sunday Night Football and they paid for it.  The Falcons won't make the same mistake.

I'm not so sure the Panthers aren't the worst team in the NFL still.  They lost 26-10 at Jacksonville in Week 1, and they trailed Arizona 27-3 in the 2H before a plethora of injuries to the Cardinals secondary allowed the Panthers to make it interesting late.  The Panthers are only averaging 4.4 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.7 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by 1.3 yards per play which is one of the worst marks in the NFL.

The Patriots are great against the run.  They have had 56 running back carries against them and have only allowed one carry of more than 12 yards all season.  They rank 2nd in the NFL in yards before 1st contact on opponent runs, and 2nd in the NFL in defending outside zone runs, which is what the Panthers like to do offensively.

The Patriots are also the much healthier team coming into this one.  They are expected to get star CB Christian Gonzalez in the lineup for the first time this season.  The only starter they will for sure be without is LG Jared Wilson.  They have three other starters questionable that are all likely to play.

The Panthers are seriously banged up right now.  They are going to be without four starters in WR Xavier Legette, TE Ja'Tavion Sanders, LB D.J. Wonnum and LB Patrick Jones II.  They were already without two starers on the offensive line in C Austin Corbett and RG Robert Hunt.  And two more playmakers in WR Terairoa McMillan and RB Chuba Hubbard are both questionable, plus they were already without WR Jalen Coker.  Bryce Young is going to be very short on playmakers and running for his life for four quarters.  Bet the Patriots Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Falcons +3

The Atlanta Falcons +3 was the first play I released to clients this week.  I did so knowing the injury situation for the Washington Commanders was going to be pretty ugly this week, and it wasn't adjusted for early in the week.  It has now been adjusted, but the Falcons should be at least 3-point home favorites given all the factors.

The Commanders will be without starting QB Jayden Daniels, starting WR Terry McCLaurin and starting WR Noah Brown on offense.  They also could be without rookie RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt, who has been huge for them thus far.  They were already without 3rd-down RB Austin Ekeler to a season-ending injury.

Washington is coming off a satisfying 41-24 home win over the Las Vegas Raiders.  Marcus Mariota was great in his first start in place of Daniels.  But now the Falcons have tape on him, and he will be without two of his top receivers and probably his RB.  Mariota will look much more like a backup QB in his first start on the road this week.

We will 'sell high' on the Commanders off that blowout win, and 'buy low' on the Falcons off a 30-0 blowout loss at Carolina.  That was one of the most misleading finals of the season.  The Falcons outgained the Panthers 332 to 224 for the game, or by 108 total yards.  The Panthers had a Pick-6, and the Falcons got stopped time and time again in the red zone.

I think the Falcons were feeling fat and happy off their 22-6 road win over the Vikings on Sunday Night Football the week prior.  They simply had a letdown against the Panthers, and everything that could go wrong, did.  Now the Falcons are fully focused, pissed off and ready to bounce back against the Commanders this week.

The Falcons are fully healthy on offense with the exception of some backups, and they are fully healthy on defense with the exception of CB A.J. Terrell.  They are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL heading into Week 4, and they have a massive health advantage over the Commanders in this one.  

The Falcons have one of the best defenses in the NFL allowing just 227.3 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play, which ranks 2nd and 4th in the NFL, respectively.  They also have a bye on deck next week, and I love betting teams coming off a bad loss with a bye on deck because I know I'm going to get a fully focused effort from them.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New York Giants +7

It's time to 'sell high' on the 3-0 Chargers and 'buy low' on the 0-3 Giants.  This is max line value due to their records, and there are several reasons to like the Giants to stay within this 7-point spread and possibly pull off the upset Sunday.

The Chargers not only 3-0, but all three wins came against their three division opponents in the Chiefs, Raiders and Broncos.  They are 'fat and happy' with a 2-game lead in the division, and now they have to travel out East for the first time this season for the dreaded 10 AM body clock game for West Coast teams.

The injuries are starting to pile up for the Chargers, too.  They are without RB Najee Harris, TE Will Dissly, RG Mekhi Becton, and could be without C Bradley Bozeman, who is questionable.  They were already without LT Rashawn Slater and backup RT Savion Washington, and starting RT Trey Pipkins III was hobbled last week and won't be 100%.

Defensively, the Chargers are without LB Khalil Mack and LB Denzel Perryman, plus they have three players in the secondary on IR.  They gutted out a 23-20 home win over the Broncos last week despite all these injuries, and now they are primed for a letdown this week.

The Giants don't usually have a very big home-field advantage.  But that changes this week with the announcement that 1st-round pick Jaxson Dart will start at QB.  I saw enough from him in college and enough in the preseason to know he's going to be a future star like Jayden Daniels, and Dart and the Giants have the element of surprise working in their favor heading into this one.

Dart opens up so much more of the playbook than Russell Wilson, who is too short to use the middle of the field and is only good on deep balls against man-to-man coverage.  No offense has been worse in the red zone than the Giants because Wilson is just incapable of using the entire end zone.  Dart is great in the run-pass option game, which is going to open everything up.

The Giants are coming off a misleading 22-9 loss to the Chiefs.  They were only outgained by 25 yards, but they failed time and time again in the red zone, and their kicker got injured pregame to boot.  They fumbled going in for a TD as well.  That misleading loss has created some line value as the Giants should have covered +6.5, but it was just another bad beat that I've suffered early int he season and there have been a plethora of them.  Those breaks will start to go our way, starting with this week.

The Giants are also one of the healthiest temas in the NFL.  Their entire offensive line is intact, and the only player they are missing on offense is RB Tyrone Tracy Jr., who has been mostly innefective thus far anyway with rookie Cam Skattebo being the much more productive back.  Skattebo is going to thrive in this read-option offense as defenders will have to account for Dart's legs.

I like this Giants defense with one of the best defensive lines in the league.  They have the horses to take advantage of this banged-up Chargers offensive line to get constant pressure on Justin Herbert.  I think they will hold him in check enough, and Dart and company will be good enough to stay within this 7-point spread.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

20* Vikings/Steelers NFL Dublin No-Brainer on Minnesota ML -140

The Minnesota Vikings were dominant in Carson Wentz's first game as a starter.  Head coach Kevin O'Connell is working wonders with another veteran QB, and Wentz is probably an upgrade over rookie JJ McCarthy and his injury could prove to be a blessing in disguise for this team.

The Vikings smashed the Bengals 48-10 at home last week.  Obviously they were aided by 5 turnovers and a couple defensive touchdowns, but this is one of the best defenses in the NFL and the reason I trust the Vikings.  Wentz went 14-of-20 for 173 yards and 2 TD while Jordan Mason rushed for 116 yards and a pair of scores.

The Vikings opened the season pretty banged up but now they are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL.  They have LT Chrstian Darrisaw and C Ryan Kelly back this week.  They are only missing LG Donavan Jackson, and they get back WR Jordan Addison from a 3-game suspension to give Wentz another weapon.  This offense is absolutely loaded with playmakers.  LB Blake Cashman went on IR after week 1, and LB Andrew Van Ginkel is out this week, but they got FS Harrison Smith back and are fully healthy everywhere else on defense.

As high as I am on the Vikings, this play is more of a fade of the Pittsburgh Steelers than anything.  They should be 0-3, but are overvalued after a 2-1 start.  They beat the Jets 34-32 in their opener despite giving up 394 total yards and getting outgained by 123 yards.  That performance looks really bad after seeing the Jets offense the last two weeks in their 0-3 start.

The Steelers were thoroughly dominated in a 31-17 home loss to the Seattle Seahawks in Week 2.  They allowed 395 yards to the Seahawks and were outgained by 128 yards.  And last week was the most misleading of them all, a 21-14 win at New England in which the Patriots gave the game away by committing 5 turnovers including two at the 1-yard line going in for scores.  They allowed 369 total yards to the Patriots and were outgained by 166 yards.

Aaron Rodgers is 6-of-22 (27%) passing when pressured this season.  No defensive coordinator brings more pressure than Brian Flores and his blitz-happy style.  Last year, Rodgers threw 3 interceptions against Flores and the Vikings, and Jets head coach Robert Saleh was fired after that 23-17 defeat.

The Vikings are averaging 5.7 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.8 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 0.9 yards per play.  The Steelers are averaging 247 yards per game and 4.8 per play on offense and allowing 386 yards per game and 6.1 per play on defense, getting outgained by 139 yards per game and 1.3 yards per play.  Those are some of the worst numbers in the NFL through three weeks.

The Steelers have a broken offense and RB Jaylen Warren and TE Jonnu Smith are both questionable.  Aaron Rodgers won't be able to do anything against this blitz-heavy.  They have a broken defense mostly due to injuries.  They are without two starters in LB Alex Highsmith and DE Isaiah Loudermilk, and CB Joey Porter Jr. and SS DeShon Elliott are questionable.  They are relying on a lot of aging veterans and this is one of the worst defenses of the Mike Tomlin era.  Bet the Vikings on the Money Line Sunday.

20* Seahawks/Cardinals NFC West No-Brainer on Seattle +1

The Seattle Seahawks are by far the superior team over the Arizona Cardinals.  They have the better numbers, have played the tougher schedule, and have fared better against two common opponents already.  They are also the much healthier team and simply own the Cardinals, which are the biggest reasons I'm on them Thursday night.

Both teams have played the 49ers.  The Seahawks played the 49ers in Week 1 when the 49ers were much healthier and lost 17-13.  The Cardinals lost to the 49ers 16-15 last week, and the 49ers were without Brock Purdy, Nick Bosa and George Kittle, which were three players the Seahawks had to face.

The Seahawks beat the Saints 44-13 while the Cardinals only beat the Saints 20-13, and the Saints actually had a chance to tie the game in the closing seconds.  The Seahawks beat the Steelers 31-17 on the road, while the Cardinals only beat the Panthers 27-22 at home.  The Steelers are much better than the Cardinals for their only non common opponents thus far.

The Seahawks are averaging 5.7 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.8 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 0.9 yards per play despite playing the tougher schedule.  The Cardinals are averaging 5.0 yards per ply on offense and allowing 5.0 yards per play on defense, breaking even in that department.

The Cardinals are missing 6 players in the secondary and are decimated in that area.  That includes starting CB Will Johnson.  LB Akeem Davis-Gaither is questionable.  Sam Darnold is forming great chemistry with Jaxson Smith-Njigba, Cooper Cupp and rookie Tory Horton.  He should light up this depleted Arizona defense.

The Cardinals have two starters questionable on the offensive line in LT Paris Johnson Jr. and LG Evan Brown.  They don't have much depth with three linemen on IR and another two questionable.  They just lost starting WR Zay Jones to a concussion on the final offensive play against the 49ers last week, so he won't be available Thursday.  Marvin Harrison Jr. has a case of the drops and just hasn't panned out in the NFL to this point.

Now the Cardinals will be up against one of the best defenses in the NFL in the Seahawks, which is easily the best defense they have faced after taking on the Panthers, Saints and 49ers.  The Seahawks are allowing just 15.7 points per game and 4.8 yards per play, which ranks 2nd and 6th in the NFL, respectively.  They are remarkably healthy on both sides of the football not missing a single starter with only two questionable.

This is a short week for both teams, but it favors the Seahawks.  They were in a 44-13 laugher against the Saints on Sunday so they were able to rest their starters in the 4th quarter.  The Cardinals were life and death with the 49ers, losing on a last-second FG to Mac Jones.  Couple that will all their injuries and this is a terrible time to be on a short week for Arizona.

The Seahawks own the Cardinals, going 7-0 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  They have held the Cardinals to 21 points or fewer in six consecutive meetings and an average of 14.0 points per game in their last six meetings.  It's clear they have Kyler Murray and this Arizona offense figured out, and their dominance defensively will once again be the key to them getting a win and cover here Thursday night.  Arizona has one of the worst home-field advantages in the NFL to boot.  Bet the Seahawks Thursday.

20* Lions/Ravens ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 51.5

This game has shootout written all over it.  These are two of the best offenses in the NFL that are pretty much both fully healthy heading into this Monday Night Football showdown.  But both defenses leave a lot to be desired, especially with injuries they are both dealing with right now.

The Ravens are averaging 40.5 points per game and 6.9 yards per play offensively after two games against the Bills and Browns.  The Lions are averaging 32.5 points per game and 6.4 yards per play in two games against the Packers and Bears.

The Lions have eight defenders listed as out or on IL.  LB Jack Campbell, CB D.J. Reed and FS Kerby Joseph are all listed as questionable, and htey are without DE Marcus Davenport.  The Ravens will be without DE Nnamdi Madubuike and LB Kyle Van Noy, and Marlon Humphrey and Nate Wiggins are both dealing with groin injuries in the secondary that have them less than 100%.

The Ravens went for 81 combined points with the Bills and 58 with the Browns in their two games this season.  The Lions just went for 73 combined points with the Bears last week.  This total of 51.5 is too short Monday night.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Chiefs/Giants NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on New York +6.5

The Kansas City Chiefs have been the luckiest team in the NFL over the past few seasons.  They finally had their string of 17 consecutive wins in on-score games come to an end in Week 1 with a 27-21 loss to the Chargers in Brazil.  Their luck has run out, and that was evident again last week when they lost 20-17 at home to the Eagles.

The Chiefs are 0-2, and the problems they are having aren't quick fixes.  Of course they will be motivated after an 0-2 start, but so will the 0-2 New York Giants, and I think the Chiefs are just getting the benefit of the down with this crazy 6.5-point spread because of their history.  But these aren't he same old Chiefs.

Kansas City is down its two biggest playmakers on offense in Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy.  Rookie Jalen Royals is questionable as well.  Patrick Mahomes is just having to improvise to try to get the offense going, running the ball more than he ever has.  But it's just not working, and this offense isn't dynamic enough to be laying big numbers like this on the road.  Travis Kelce looks washed, Juju Smith Schuster is on his last leg, and Hollywood Brown has been a major disappointment.  The offensive line is also struggling in the early going.

The New York Giants showed what they are capable of last week in their 40-37 loss to the Dallas Cowboys.  If this was later in the season that loss would be tough to recover from, but it's still very early and the Giants still have hope.  They will be extra motivated with the Chiefs coming to town.

The Giants had 506 total yards on the Cowboys.  Russell Wilson threw for 450 yards and 3 TD, and Nabers and Robinson went off for 17 receptions for 309 yards and 3 TD to show they are two of the best young weapons in the game.  The Giants are better than they've shown defensively, and this is a step down in class for them against the Chiefs after facing the Commanders and Cowboys.

The Giants have some of the best pass rushers in the game in Brian Burns, Dexter Lawrence, Abdul Carter and Kayvon Thibodeax.  Teams that give the Chiefs problems are ones that can get pressure without blitzing like the Eagles.  The Giants are capable of the same thing.  They also should get LT Andrew Thomas back for the first time this season to help protect Wilson, and they won't have to face Kansas City DE Mike Danna, who is out for this one.  The Chiefs are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite of -5 or more.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

20* NFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cowboys/Bears OVER 48.5

The Cowboys allowed touchdowns to the Eagles on each of their first three drives of the season.  The weather delay slowed the Eagles down.  The Cowboys allowed 37 points and 506 total yards to the Giants last week.  That's the same Giants offense that was held to 6 points by the Commanders in Week 1.  

It was obvious the Cowboys would be a dead nuts OVER team with a great offense and terrible defense this season, and it is coming to fruition.  They traded their best defender in Micah Parsons, and then they paid CB DaRon Bland with the money they saved.  Well, Bland is now out with an injury for a 2nd consecutive week.  And fellow starting CB Trevon Diggs is highly questionable to go in this one.

Dak Prescott and the Cowboys scored on each of their first four drives against the Eagles before the delay.  They came back with 40 points and 478 total yards on the Giants last week.  They have an elite offense with Prescott healthy throwing to some of the best weapons he has ever had led by Lamb and Pickens.

The Bears went for an offensive-minded head coach in Ben Johnson.  They now profile as a dead nuts OVER team.  They lost 27-24 to the Vikings in Week 1 for 51 combined points and made JJ McCarthy look like Joe Montana in the 4th quarter.  McCarthy and the Vikings went on to score just 6 points against the Falcons last week.

It was way worse in Week 2 for this Chicago defense.  They lost 52-21 to the Lions for 73 combined points while allowing 511 total yards and 8.8 yards per play.  That's the same Lions offense that was held to 13 points by the Packers in Week 1.

Few defenses have been hit harder by injuries in the early going than the Bears.  They are missing 5 cornerbacks alone!  CB Jaylon Johnson, CB Kyler Gordon, CB Jaylon Jones, CB Terell Smith and CB Zah Frazier are all out.  MLB TJ Edwards is also out, so look for the Cowboys to hang a big number on this soft, banged up defense in a shootout.  Caleb Williams should be able to keep pace as this is a step down in class of opposing defenses after having to face the Lions and Vikings the first two weeks.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Cardinals/49ers NFC West No-Brainer on OVER 43.5

Injuries to Arizona's secondary are a big reason I'm on the OVER in this game.  The Cardinals will be without 5 defensive backs and possibly 6.  They are without CB Will Johnson, CB Sean Murphy-Bunting, FS Joey Blount, CB Starling Thomas V and CB Garrett Williams.  CB Max Melton is doubtful.

All of these injuries in the secondary are a big reason the Carolina Panthers were able to come to come back on the Cardinals and nearly pull off the upset last week.  The Panthers came back from 27-3 down and had the ball with a chance to win at the end, losing 27-22 for 49 combined points.

Mac Jones isn't a big downgrade from a hobbled Brock Purdy.  I think this total has been adjusted down too much due to Purdy's absence.  Jones is more of a gun slinger who will make big plays in the passing game, but also some mistakes.  He went 26-of-39 passing for 279 yards and 3 TD in his first start last week in a 26-21 win over the Saints for 47 combined points.  Kyle Shanahan can really get the most out of any QB in his offense.

The 49ers have benefited from playing a very easy schedule of opposing offenses in Sam Darnold and the Seahawks and Spencer Rattler and the Saints.  Even Rattler threw 3 TD passes against them last week.  Now this is a big step up in class for the 49ers against an Arizona defense that should be one of the best in the NFL this season.

Shootouts have been the story in this NFC West rivalry.  In fact, the OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings with 47 or more combined points in all seven, making for a perfect 7-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 43.5-point total.  There's a ton of value on the OVER in this game this week.  Bet the OVER Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Texans/Jaguars OVER 43.5

The Jacksonville Jaguars are a dead nuts OVER team with an elite offense and a suspect defense.  They got one of the best head coaching hires of the offseason in Liam Coen, who was behind Baker Mayfield's career season in Tampa Bay last year.  He's already working wonders with Trevor Lawrence, who has been even better than the numbers would show due to drops by his receivers.

The Jaguars are scoring 26.5 points per game, putting up 389 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play.  They are fully healthy on offense with upgrades at receiver to go alongisde Brian Thomas with Travis Hunter and Dyami Brown.  Travis Etienne and Bhayshul Tuten are a great 1-2 punch in the backfield, and Lawrence has the best offensive line he's ever had in Jacksonville.

The Jaguars blew a 17-10 halftime lead last week and lost to the Bengals, 31-27.  This was even after Joe Burrow went out for the Bengals, allowing Jake Browning to look like Joe Montana against them in the 2H.  Browning threw for 241 yards and accounted for 3 touchdowns against this Jacksonville defense.

I think Houston can finally get its offense going this week.  The Texans have faced two tough defenses in the Rams and Bucs thus far, and this is a step down in class for them.  Reinforcements are on the way as both Christian Kirk and Braxton Berrios are expected to make their season debuts for the Texans at receiver.  This might be the deepest receiver room in the NFL, and it should come to life this week.

The Texans and Jaguars have combined for at least 43 points in four consecutive meetings, and 43 or more in eight of their last 10 meetings as well.  This total of 43.5 is very low for a game involving the Jaguars.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Falcons -3

The Atlanta Falcons would be 2-0 if they had the same kicker for both games.  Koo cost them the game against the Bucs in Week 1, and after getting cut his backup Parker Romo made all 5 of his field goal attempts in a 22-6 road win over the Vikings last week.  Romo earned a new contract with his performance, and the Falcons are happy they got that problem shored up quickly because this is a team with very few weaknesses now.

The biggest upgrade was the pass rush this offseason and that came up big sacking the Vikings 6 times.  They held the Vikings to 198 total yards, and this is a legit defense now.  The Falcons have elite numbers averaging 342 yards per game and allowing just 229 yards per game, outgaining opponents by 113 yards per game.  The offense is loaded with playmakers, one of the best young QB's in the game in Michael Pennix Jr, and now the defense is as good as it has been in Atlanta in a long time.

The Carolina Panthers have no shot of keeping this game close with all the injuries they are dealing with.  After losing 26-10 at Jacksonville in Week 1, the Panthers trailed the Cardinals 27-3 last week.  That was before the Cardinals suffered a ton of injuries in their secondary and were playing with all backups when the Panthers came back and made it a game in the 2H.  That won't happen against the Falcons this week.

The Panthers are averaging 4.5 yards per play on offense and allowing 6.1 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by 1.6 yards per play.  That's even with counting all the garbage yards they accumulated against the Cardinals last week.

The Panthers are without two starting offensive linemen in RG Robert Hunt and C Austin Corbett.  They are without WR Jalen Coker, and fellow WR Xavier Legette is questionable.  Defensively, they are without LB Patrick Jones II and DT Tershawn Wharton.  This is one of the worst defenses in the NFL, and QB Bryce Young doesn't have much of a chance behind this makeshift offensive line and limited playmakers.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Browns +8.5

Since 2010, winless (0-2) teams are 59-35-3 (62.8%) ATS vs. a team with at least one win in Week 3.  This trend makes sends because teams that start 0-2 are undervalued, while teams like the Packers that start 2-0 are overvalued.  The Packers should not be favored by more than a TD on the road against the Browns this week.

No question the Packers are one of the better teams in the NFL.  They beat the Lions 27-13 in Week 1 and the Commanders 27-18 in Week 2.  But both of those wins came at home, and now the Packers will be hitting the road for the first time this week.

The Cleveland Browns have played a brutal schedule and could easily be 1-1 instead of 0-2 if they made kicks.  They held the Bengals to 7 total yards in the 2H in their 17-16 loss in Week 1.  They held the Ravens to 242 total yards last week in their 41-17 defeat, which will prove to be one of the most misleading finals of the year.

The Browns actually rank 1st in the NFL allowing 191.5 yards per game and 4.0 yards per play this season.  When you consider they faced two Top 5 QB's in Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow, that makes those numbers even more impressive.  They legitimately have one of the best defenses in the NFL, which is what I want in an underdog catching this many points.  They have outgained the Bengals and Ravens by an average of 133 yards per game despite losing both games.  Talk about misleading.

While the Browns are almost fully healthy heading into this one, the Packers have a ton of injury concerns.  Jordan Love's favorite security blanket in Jayden Reed was just placed on IR.  TE Tucker Kraft who is off to a monster start this season suffered a knee injury in practice and won't be 100% if he plays.  The Packers may find a way to win this game, but it will be a much bigger fight than they bargained for in the Dawg Pound just like it was for the Bengals in Week 1.  Bet the Browns Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New York Jets +7

Since 2010, winless (0-2) teams are 59-35-3 (62.8%) ATS vs. a team with at least one win in Week 3.  The Tampa Bay Bucs are overvalued after a 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS start this season.  They easily could have lost both games as they needed some Baker Mayfield magic for a couple game-winning drives in the final seconds to beat the Falcons 23-20 and the Texans 20-19.

Now the Bucs are fat and happy after their 2-0 start.  We saw this same thing play out last year with the Bucs opening 2-0 and beating the Lions in Week 2 before falling flat on their faces in a 26-7 home loss to Denver as 6-point favorites in Week 3.  I can easily see history repeating itself here.

The Bucs are on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football.  They have a ton of injuries they are dealing with right now that doesn't warrant them being 7-point favorites.  They will be without 3 starting offensive linemen in LT Tristan Wirfs, RT Luke Goedeke and RG Cody Mauch.  That makes this short week even tougher on the Bucs trying to find some chemistry in this makeshift offensive line that is dealing with cluster injuries.

The Bucs also remain without starting WR Chris Godwin, and now star rookie WR Emeka Egbuka has popped up on the injury report this week and is questionable.  Baker Mayfield appeared to sprain his ankle on that game-winning drive against the Texans last week, and he won't be 100%.  The Bucs also lost their best pass rusher in Calijah Kancey to an injury last week and now he's on IR.

Tyrod Taylor may actually be an upgrade over Justin Fields.  At least Taylor will take care of the football and is more of a threat as a passer than Fields is.  That's what you want in an underdog.  Taylor is actually 34-24 ATS in his career, including 7-3 ATS in his last 10 starts as an underdog of 7 points or more.  He is one of the better backup QB's in the league and could give the Jets just the spark they need after a tough 0-2 start.

If you just looked at the numbers of these two teams through three weeks you wouldn't know which one is 2-0, and which one is 0-2.  The Jets are only getting outgained 5.3 to 5.6 yards per play, or by 0.3 yards per play.  The Bucs are actually getting outgained 5.0 to 5.5 yards per play, or by 0.5 yards per play.  And you could argue the Jets played the tougher schedule in the Bills and Steelers, while the Bucs beat the Texans and Falcons.  This is a game the Jets could easily win outright.  Bet the Jets Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on New England Patriots +2

Note: I love a 6-point teaser with the Patriots +7.5/+8 and the Seahawks -1/-1.5 this week!

The Pittsburgh Steelers are a mess defensively right now.  Through two weeks, they rank dead last in EPA per play when adjusting for turnovers and taking them out.  Dating back to last season, the Steelers have now allowed at least 27 points in six of their last seven games overall.  TJ Watt has zero sacks in his last six games and is a shell of his former self.  They have been gashed by two of the worst offenses in the NFL this season.  

They gave up 32 points and 384 total yards to the Jets in Week 1.  That's looks way worse now after Fields and the Jets were shut down by the Bills last week and held to 10 points.  They allowed 31 points and 395 total yards to the Sam Darnold and the Seahawks last week.  The Seahawks were held to 13 points at home by the 49ers the previous week.

The injury situation is really bad for the Steelers.  They are without four starters on defense in CB Joey Porter Jr., SS DeShon Elliott, LB Alex Highsmith and DE Isaiahh Loudermilk.  DE Derrick Harmon is questionable as well.  This is clearly one of the worst defenses in the NFL in its current state.

Aaron Rodgers is getting a lot of hype for throwing 4 TD's against the Jets, but the Jets have one of the worst defenses in the NFL this season.  He was held in check by a much more capable Seahawks defense last week in a 31-17 home loss.  And the numbers are just atrocious for the Steelers overall.  They are averaging 269 yards per game and 5.1 per play on offense and allowing 394.5 yards per game and 6.4 per play on defense.  They are getting outgained by 125.5 yards per game and 1.3 yards per play against two mediocre to bad teams in the Jets and Seahawks.

The Patriots bounced back nicely from a 20-13 home loss to the Raiders in Week 1 with a 33-27 road win at Miami in Week 2.  They have their franchise QB in Drake Maye, who went 19-of-23 passing for 220 yards and 2 TD against the Dolphins last week.  Mike Vrabel was the perfect hire for them to get the most out of this young team.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Patriots Sunday.

20* AFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Steelers/Patriots OVER 44

The Pittsburgh Steelers are a mess defensively right now.  Through two weeks, they rank dead last in EPA per play when adjusting for turnovers and taking them out.  They are a dead nuts OVER team right now as a result, but we are getting their totals at a discount because of their reputation as a defensive team under Mike Tomlin from previous seasons.

Dating back to last season, the Steelers have now allowed at least 27 points in six of their last seven games overall.  TJ Watt has zero sacks in his last six games and is a shell of his former self.  They have been gashed by two of the worst offenses in the NFL this season.  They gave up 32 points and 384 total yards to the Jets in Week 1.  That's looks way worse now after Fields and the Jets were shut down by the Bills last week and held to 10 points.  They allowed 31 points and 395 total yards to the Sam Darnold and the Seahawks last week.  The Seahawks were held to 13 points at home by the 49ers the previous week.

The injury situation is really bad for the Steelers.  They are without four starters on defense in CB Joey Porter Jr., SS DeShon Elliott, LB Alex Highsmith and DE Isaiahh Loudermilk.  DE Derrick Harmon is questionable as well.  This is clearly one of the worst defenses in the NFL in its current state.  But the Steelers do have some offensive punch now with QB Aaron Rodgers and WR DK Metcalf that they have been missing.  They scored 34 points and combined for 66 points with the Jets before combining for 48 points with the Seahawks last week.

The Patriots are coming off a shootout of their own in a 33-27 road win at Miami for 60 combined points.  I think their offense is ahead of their defense at this point.  Drake Maye went 19-of-23 for 230 yards and 2 TD against the Dolphins.  The defense is allowing 373.5 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play thus far to the Dolphins and Raiders.  They are also without top CB Christian Gonzalez again this week.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Dolphins/Bills AFC East ANNIHILATOR on OVER 49.5

This game has points and OVER written all over it.  Both offenses are way ahead of the defenses for both teams largely due to injuries.  I expect the Bills and Dolphins to play in a shootout tonight as a result.

The Dolphins are without 5 cornerbacks and starting safety Ifeatu Melifonwu.  That includes starting CB Storm Duck.  It's no surprise the Dolphins have allowed 33 points to the Colts and 33 points to the Patriots in their first two games.  The Bills will go for 33-plus in this one as well.

While the Bills are thriving on offense because they are fully healthy, scoring 41 points against the Ravens and 30 points against the Jets, their defense is far from Super Bowl caliber.  They allowed 40 points and 432 total yards to the Ravens.

Last week, the Bills knocked Justin Fields out of the game with a concussion, and the Jets were lost on offense.  They play a much more competent offense in the Dolphins this week that will exploit all their holes.  The Bills are without DT Ed Oliver and LB Matt Milano, and Oliver's top two backups are both out as well.  Milano's backup Shaq Thompson is questionable, and NB Taron Johnson is questionable with a plethora of injuries in the secondary.

The OVER is 4-2 in the last six meetings between the Dolphins and Bills with 57 or more combined points in four of those six meetings.  The Bills have scored at least 30 points in five of their last six meetings with the Dolphins, and I have no doubt they will top that number again and the Dolphins will get enough points to sail OVER this 49.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Bucs/Texans ESPN No-Brainer on Houston -2.5

I'll gladly back the desperate 0-1 team playing the fat and happy 1-0 team in this matchup between the Houston Texans and Tampa Bay Bucs.  The Texans lost a coin flip game on the road to the Rams last week, while the Bucs won a coin flip game against the Falcons on the road last week.

The Bucs had no business beating the Falcons 23-20 last week.  The Falcons outgained them 358 to 260 for the game and 5.1 to 4.7 yards per play.  But Koo missed a pair of FG's including the one that would have tied it and forced OT.  The Bucs have been getting lucky in close games for two straight years now.

It's clear to me Baker Mayfield misses offensive coordinator Liam Coen, who left to become the Jaguars head coach.  Mayfield completed just 53.1% of his passes for 167 yards while averaging just 5.2 yards per attempt against a pretty weak Falcons defense last week.  

Now he takes a big step up in class here against a Houston defense that many feel is the best in the NFL.  The Texans held the Rams to 14 points and 296 total yards on the road last week.  The problem was they couldn't capitalize on trips deep in Rams territory settling for three FG's and turning it over as they were going in for the game-winning score.  I expect their offense to be much better at home this week.

I expect Houston's defense to lead the way though against a very banged up Bucs offense.  The Bucs will be without WR Chris Godwin Jr., LT Tristan Wirfs, WR Jalen McMillan and they could be without RT Luke Goedeke, who is questionable.  These injuries will make life that much harder on going up against this defense that just doesn't have any weaknesses.  I have no doubt the Texans win this game by 3 points or more in their home opener.  Bet the Texans Monday.

15* Eagles/Chiefs Super Bowl Rematch on Philadelphia ML -114

The Kansas City Chiefs will want revenge on the Philadelphia Eagles after getting embarrassed by them in the Super Bowl.  The problem is they don't have the horses to get that revenge, and the Eagles remain the most talented team in the NFL if it's not the Baltimore Ravens.  I backed the Eagles with success in the Super Bowl, and I'm backing them again for a number of reasons in the rematch.

The Chiefs struggle with defenses that can get pressure without blitzing, which is exactly what the Eagles did to them in the Super Bowl.  The Eagles led 40-6 before calling off the dogs and allowing a couple garbage TD's in the final three minutes with the game already decided in a 40-22 final.  They harassed Patrick Mahomes for four quarters without blitzing as he had one of the worst games of his career.

The Eagles held the Cowboys to 20 points in the opener despite losing one of their best players in DE Jalen Carter in the 1Q after spitting on Dak Prescott.  Carter is back this week, and the Eagles are at full strength defensively in the health department.  The Eagles are also at full strength on offense with the exception of Dallas Goedert, but they have a deep TE room and he won't be missed too much.  The Eagles scored touchdowns on each of their first three drives against the Cowboys, and a weather delay is the only thing that could slow them down.

The Chiefs are coming off a 27-21 loss to the Chargers in Brazil as 3-point favorites.  They allowed 394 total yards and 6.7 yards per play to the Chargers as their defense is clearly taking a step back this season.  But more concerning is the lack of weapons on offense after Xavier Worthy was lost to a shoulder injury after running into Travis Kelce, who is clearly on his last leg.

The Chiefs will be without WR Worthy, WR Rashee Rice and WR Jalen Royals for this one.  All three were expected to play big roles for the Chiefs this season.  Now they are down to Hollywood Brown, the elder JuJu Smith-Schuster and the even older Travis Kelce as Mahomes' main weapons.  He just can't have much success with this weak group of playmakers in their current form this week.

The Chiefs were 17-0 in their last 17 one-score games prior to finally having that streak end against the Chargers last week. I think their luck has run out, and they were clearly due some regression and it will continue to hit them time and time again this season, including in this game against a much superior Eagles squad that is favored for good reason on the road.  Bet the Eagles Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Eagles/Chiefs UNDER 47

It's safe to say the Eagles and Chiefs are familiar with one another after playing in two of the past three Super Bowls.  They know each other inside and out, and I think that favors defense over offense.

This elite Philadelphia defense held the Chiefs to a total of 6 points with under 3 minutes remaining in the Super Bowl before calling off the dogs.  I think they will have similar success shutting down the Chiefs considering they are without WR Worthy, WR Rashee Rice and WR Jalen Royals for this one.  All three were expected to play big roles for the Chiefs this season.  Now they are down to Hollywood Brown, the elder JuJu Smith-Schuster and the even older Travis Kelce as Mahomes' main weapons.  He just can't have much success with this weak group of playmakers in their current form this week.

There are some concerns with this Philadelphia offense after being held to 24 points, 302 total yards and 5.0 per play against the Cowboys last week.  The Cowboys have one of the worst defenses in the NFL this season without Micah Parsons.  The Eagles are going through a change in coordinators after losing Kellen Moore to the Saints.  The Chiefs should be able to hold them in check enough to keep this thing UNDER 47 combined points.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Seahawks/Steelers OVER 40

The Pittsburgh Steelers go from being a dead nuts UNDER team the last few seasons under Mike Tomlin to what appears to be a dead nuts OVER team early this season.  But oddsmakers are still lining their totals like they are the same team they were last year.  Last week's total was set at 38, and both teams nearly covered it on their own in a 34-32 win by the Steelers over the Jets and 66 combined points.

The Steelers finally have a quarterback in Aaron Rodgers for the first time since Big Ten retired.  He also has a No. 1 receiver in the way of DK Metcalf, who is going to want some revenge against his former team in this one.  Rodgers threw 4 TD passes and found Metcalf 4 times for 83 yards in the win over the Jets.

More concerning is a Pittsburgh defense that allowed 32 points, 394 total yards and 6.5 yards per play to Justin Fields and a Jets offense that wasn't expected to be very good.  They went into the game missing some players, and now they are missing even more defenders heading into this game against Seattle.  They will be without three starters in CB Joey Porter Jr., SS DeShon Elliott and DE Derrick Harman.  They have a mediocre defense at best without these guys.

Sam Darnold and this Seattle offense should get on track this week after a tough showing against the 49ers, who have one of the most improved defenses in the league under Robert Saleh as their new defensive coordinator.  But the Seahawks also only ran 49 plays in the game compared to 71 for the 49ers, so they just couldn't get in a rhythm.  Look for Darnold and the running game to find their rhythm against Pittsburgh.

More concerning is a Seattle defense that gave up 384 yards and 5.4 yards per play to a 49ers offense that was missing so many key weapons.  They lost George Kittle early, and they were already without Brandon Aiyuk.  JuJuan Jennings suffered a shoulder injury, and Brock Purdy suffered toe and shoulder injuries that will keep him out for a few weeks.  Yet still the 49ers moved the ball up and down the field on this Seattle defense, which will be without top CB Devon Witherspoon for this game.  It doesn't take much to get to 40 points in today's NFL that is built for offense.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Giants/Cowboys NFC East ANNIHILATOR on OVER 44.5

The Cowboys are a dead nuts OVER team this season.  They have a very good offense with a healthy Dak Prescott, plenty of playmakers on the outside and a solid offensive line.  But they have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  They traded away Micah Parsons even after ranking as a bottom 2 defense in every major statistical category last season with him off the field.  They will be without arguably their 2nd-best defensive player in CB DaRon Bland, who they just gave a shiny big new contract too right after trading Parsons as he got injured last week.

The Eagles were torching this Dallas defense scoring touchdowns on their first three possessions last week.  But then the rain delay happened, and it's almost like clockwork offenses slow down coming out of a delay, and it favors defense.  I know the Giants looked poor on offense last week, but that was Russell Wilson's first start with his new team against a solid Commanders defense.  Wilson and company will have a lot more success this week.

The Giants were supposed to have an improved defense with one of the best defensive lines in the NFL this season, but that didn't show in Week 1.  The Giants allowed 432 total yards and 7.0 yards per play to the Commanders, who came back and looked atrocious on offense against Parsons and the Packers on Thursday.  The Cowboys will get their points, too.

The OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings between the Giants and Cowboys in Dallas.  They have combined for at least 47 points in all six meetings inside the Jerry Dome, which is perfect conditions for scoring.  This total of 44.5 is too short today.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Jets +8.5

I grabbed the Jets +8.5 Sunday night and would still play it down to +7 as a 20*.  But at +6.5 or worse it would drop to a 15*.  This was the first play I released to my clients this week as I anticipated the line wouldn't last long.  This is the perfect spot to back the Jets.

I love backing 0-1 teams against 1-0 teams in Week 2.  But these teams should have their records reversed.  The Jets deserved to beat the Steelers in Week 1, while the Bills deserved to lose to the Ravens in Week 1.  Instead, the Jets lost by 2 while the Bills won by 1.  If these records were reversed this line wouldn't have been as high as it was to open.

The Jets outgained the Steelers 394 to 271 last week and 6.5 to 5.4 yards per play.  But they lost 34-32 despite dominating the box score.  The Bills miraculously scored three times late in the 4th quarter to overcome a 15-point deficit in a 41-40 win.  They were outgained 9.0 to 6.5 yards per play.  That's right, their defense gave up 9.0 yards per play for the game!

This Buffalo defense is going to be even worse off this week due to injuries.  They will be without starting DT Ed Oliver, while starting CB's Tre'Davious White and Taron Johnson, along with LB Shaq Thompson are all questionable.  This is a very poor Buffalo defense and I think it will be their undoing as the season progresses.

The Jets also have the element of surprise with Justin Fields at QB and new schemes on both offense and defense under first-year head coach Aaron Glenn.  Their offense made a very good Pittsburgh defense look mediocre last week with 394 yards and 6.5 yards per play against it.  Fields has always gotten a bad rap due to his lack of playmakers in Chicago and Pittsburgh prior.  He threw for 218 yards and a TD while also rushing for 48 yards and 2 TD against the Steelers.

The Bills are fat and happy after that comeback win over the Ravens on Sunday Night Football.  They won't be nearly as motivated or focused to beat the Jets this week.  They also used a lot of energy in that comeback win, and they are paying for it with a lot of injuries.  The Jets are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Bills in New York with all three games decided by 6 points or fewer.  Bet the Jets Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Tennessee Titans +6

I love the spot for the Tennessee Titans this week.  They are a desperate 0-1 team playing a 1-0 team, and the 0-1 teams in this situation have been great bets in Week 2.  This is one of my favorite spots to back the Titans.

They had their chances last week on the road against Denver but a couple coaching blunders likely cost them a chance to win.  I think Brian Callahan will make the necessary corrections for his mistakes, and I actually though Cam Ward played reasonably well for a No. 1 pick making his first career start on the road in altitude in a hostile atmosphere in Denver.

The Titans lost 20-12 in Denver but this was a 1-point game late in the 4th quarter.  The Titans had their chances to tie it but Ward just kept barely missing his receivers on seem routes.  The timing was a little off, and I think they will work on that timing this week and be much better at home against the Rams.

One of the best kept secrets in the NFL is that the Titans have one of the best defenses in the league.  Despite going 3-14 last season, the Titans ranked 2nd in the NFL in total defense allowing 311.2 yards per game.  They just had terrible QB play on offense and the worst special teams in the NFL.  Both will be improved greatly this season with Ward at QB and more emphasis on special teams, plus the Titans will remain one of the best defenses in the NFL.  They made Bo Nix look like a rookie last week intercepting him twice and limiting the Broncos to 20 points, 317 total yards and 4.5 yards per play.

The Rams are coming off a hard-fought 14-9 win over the Texans at home in Week 1.  Matthew Stafford has been out with a back injury and barely practicing with the team, so it's no surprise the Rams aren't sharp offensively in the early going.  They managed just 296 yards and 14 points against the Texans, who were banged up on offense.

I think Stafford and company have an even tougher test this week going on the road for the first time in what will be a hostile atmosphere in Nashville with the anticipation for Cam Ward's home debut.  I also could see the Rams looking ahead to a huge game against the Eagles next week.  The Eagles knicked the Rams out of the playoffs and they obviously would love some revenge.  That game is much more important to them than this one.  It's also their first 10:00 AM body clock game of the season out East.  Bet the Titans Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Giants +6

The Cowboys were 3-point favorites on the lookahead line in this game.  It has been adjusted up a full 3 points to Cowboys -6 now after one week of results.  I think it's time to 'buy low' on the Giants and 'sell high' on the Cowboys this week.

To put things into perspective, the Giants were 6-point road underdogs to the Commanders in their 21-6 loss last week.  So this line is saying that the Cowboys are equal to the Commanders.  That's just not the case as I have Washington power rated 3 points better than Dallas.

That's especially not the case now that the Cowboys traded away Micah Parson, and they will be without arguably their 2nd-best defensive player in CB DaRon Bland, who they just gave a shiny big new contract too right after trading Parsons.  The fact is this Dallas defense is going to be one of the worst in the NFL this season.  They rank dead last or 2nd to last in all major statistical categories defensively last season when Parsons was not on the field.

The Eagles were torching this Dallas defense scoring touchdowns on their first three possessions last week.  But then the rain delay happened, and it's almost like clockwork offenses slow down coming out of a delay, and it favors defense.  I know the Giants looked poor on offense last week, but that was Russell Wilson's first start with his new team against a solid Commanders defense.  Wilson and company will have a lot more success this week.

Unlike the Cowboys, the Giants have what should be one of the better defenses in the NFL this season.  They certainly have the best defensive line that can help mask their secondary.  They held the Commanders to 21 points last week which was pretty respectable considering what Jaden Daniels and company did to the rest of the league last year.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

20* Commanders/Packers NFC No-Brainer on Washington +3.5

The Washington Commanders were impressive in their opener against the New York Giants to back up what they did last season in winning a playoff game before before losing to the eventual Super Bowl champion Eagles.  I had the Giants in that game and came away very impressed with just how dominant the Commanders were.

The Giants were expected to have one of the best defenses in the NFL this season, and the Commanders shredded it.  They won 21-6 but easily could have scored more if they kept their foot on the gas in the 2H.  They went for 432 total yards and 6.6 yards per play on that vaunted Giants defense.

While the Giants weren't expected to have a great offense coming in, the Commanders made them look even worse than they were.  They allowed just 231 total yards and 3.7 yards per play in the win.  They outgained the Giants by 201 yards and 2.9 yards per play for the game.

The Packers won by a similar 27-13 margin over the Lions at home last week.  But they weren't nearly as dominant as the final score, only outgaining the Lions 266 to 246 for the game, or by 20 yards.  Keep in mind that was a Lions team that lost both coordinators and some key starters along the offensive line from last season.  They just weren't as sharp offensively without Ben Johnson calling the shots.  I think the Packers are getting too much credit for that win.

While the Commanders are basically fully healthy right now, the Packers have all kinds of injury issues to where they should not be 3.5-point favorites in this matchup.  The Packers have a Top 10 offensive line when healthy, but they aren't healthy at all right now.  Both RT Zach Tom and LG Aaron Banks are questionable and closer to doubtful.  They are without WR Christian Watson, and DE Micah Parsons CB Nate Hobbs are both questionable, while CB Nate Hobbs is out.  Bet the Commanders Thursday.

20* Vikings/Bears ESPN No-Brainer on Chicago +2

Note: I have placed 6-point teasers wheeling them all together with every combination of the Eagles -1, Broncos -2, Falcons +8.5, Bears +7.5 & Ravens +7.5. Just make sure you can get the favorites to -2.5 or better and the dogs to +7.5 or better or don't place them. Also make sure you get -130 or better or don't place them.

Entering Week 1, division home dogs have gone 18-10 SU & 24-6 (80%) ATS since 2009.  The Bears are showing great value as home underdogs to the Minnesota Vikings.  They have the head coach in Ben Johnson that can get the most out of Caleb Williams as many believe him to be the best offensive mind in the game.

The Bears played their starters in the preseason and looked great in doing so.  They will be more prepared for Week 1 than the Vikings, who didn't play their starters in the preseason.  The Vikings have basically a rookie QB in JJ McCarthy making his first start after sitting out last season with an injury.

The Vikings were just fine without him going 14-3 in the regular season.  But that record was inflated by a 9-1 record in one score games, so the Vikings were one of the most lucky teams in the NFL last season.  They are due some regression, and it's time to 'sell high' on the Vikings early.  Rookie QB's have been terrible on the road in Week 1 historically in the NFL.

All the pieces are in place for Caleb Williams to succeed this season.  Not only did they hire Johnson, but they also bolstered the offensive line after allowing a league-high 68 sacks last year.  GM Ryan Poles traded for Pro Gowl guards Joe Thuney and Jonah Jackson while signing top free-agent center Drew Dalman.  They used their first three picks on Michigan TE Colston Loveland (#10), Missouri WR Luther Burden III (#39) and Boston College OT Ozzy Trapilo (#56) in the first two rounds.  They will join WR's DJ Moore and Rome Odunze.

Veteran defensive coordinator Dennis Allen has 23 years of NFL experience.  The Bears bolstered an already solid defense in free agency with two-time Pro Bowl DT Grady Jarrett and DE Dayo Odeyingbo.  They drafted Texas A&M DT Shemar Turner in the 2nd round.  The Bears already have a pair of pro bowlers in DE Montez Sweat and CB Jaylon Johnson.  LB's Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards should fit Allen's aggressive scheme perfectly.  NB Kyler Gordon is one of the best in the NFL at his position and Allen has had high praise of him.

The Vikings open the season missing some key players due to injury.  WR Jordan Addison is suspended, FB C.J. Ham is on IR, FS Harrison Smith is out with an illness, and LT Christian Darrisaw is questionable.  I think the atmosphere in Chicago is going to be electric for the home opener with the anticipation of Johnson making his head coaching debut.  Their home-field advantage for this single game is higher than it will be the rest of the season.  Bet the Bears Monday.

20* Ravens/Bills NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Baltimore ML +100

Note: I have placed 6-point teasers wheeling them all together with every combination of the Eagles -1, Broncos -2, Falcons +8.5, Bears +7.5 & Ravens +7.5. Just make sure you can get the favorites to -2.5 or better and the dogs to +7.5 or better or don't place them. Also make sure you get -130 or better or don't place them.

I love the spot for the Baltimore Ravens to open the 2025 season.  They get their shot at revenge right away against a Buffalo Bills team that eliminated them from the playoffs last season.  To be fair, the Ravens were the better team and they basically eliminated themselves with a poor INT from Lamar Jackson, and a fumble plus a dropped 2-point conversion attempt from Mark Andrews that would have forced OT.  They have not forgotten, and they will release their frustration on the Bills Sunday night.

The Ravens were statistically the best team in the NFL last season despite not winning the Super Bowl, which can happen.  They outgained their opponents by 1.6 yards per play which is about as elite as it gets.  And they will be just as strong again in 2025 with what they have returning.  Their offense and defense both basically return all their important pieces.

I like the Buffalo offense and it will be good again, but the problem for the Bills is that they just don't have a Super Bowl defense like the Ravens do.  They are decent along the Front 7, but the problem will be weak secondary that is banged up already.  They will be without CB Tre'Davious White and fellow CB Christian Benford is banged up.  They need to make some sort of trade to patch up this weak link, and I expect Jackson and company to expose it.

The Ravens outgained the Bills 416 to 273 in that 27-25 loss in the playoffs last year.  Like I said, they beat themselves, and I don't see that happening again in the opener.  They will dominate statistically again, and they will win the game as a result.  Bet the Ravens on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Denver Broncos -8

Note: I have placed 6-point teasers wheeling them all together with every combination of the Eagles -1, Broncos -2, Falcons +8.5, Bears +7.5 & Ravens +7.5. Just make sure you can get the favorites to -2.5 or better and the dogs to +7.5 or better or don't place them. Also make sure you get -130 or better or don't place them.

The Denver Broncos went 10-7 and ended an eight-year playoff drought with a rookie QB in Bo Nix.  That's just how good head coach Sean Payton is, and the Denver Broncos are a dangerous team moving forward with him and general manager George Paton in sync along with ownership.  This is one of the most complete rosters in the NFL heading into 2025.

The Broncos have arguably the best defense in the NFL.  They ranked 3rd in scoring defense and 7th in total defense last season.  Nix figures to take another step forward in his second season under Payton's tutelage.  They ranked 10th in scoring last year.  Amazingly, nine of the Broncos' 10 wins last season came by 9 points or more.

I think you can chalk up another here in this home opener against a Tennessee Titans team that figures to be one of the worst in the NFL again this season.  The Titans went 3-14 last year and can't be any worse, and they did use the 1st overall pick on QB Cam Ward out of Miami.  But rookie QB's making their first start on the road have notoriously been bet against, and I don't expect it to go well for Ward against one of the league's top defenses in altitude.

The Titans ranked 30th in scoring defense last season allowing 27.1 points per game.  So they have to improve by leaps and bounds on that side of the football to be competitive, and I just don't see it with the talent on hand.  Outside of DT Jeffery Simmons there isn't much to like about this defense, and it will get exposed by Nix, Payton and company in the opener as the Broncos win this game by double-digits.  Bet the Broncos Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Atlanta Falcons +2.5

Note: I have placed 6-point teasers wheeling them all together with every combination of the Eagles -1, Broncos -2, Falcons +8.5, Bears +7.5 & Ravens +7.5. Just make sure you can get the favorites to -2.5 or better and the dogs to +7.5 or better or don't place them. Also make sure you get -130 or better or don't place them.

I think everyone is sleeping on Atlanta QB Michael Penix Jr.  He led the Washington Huskies to the national championship game and got Kalen DeBoer the head coaching job at Alabama.  He is the real deal, and he showed it when he took over for Kirk Cousins down the stretch last year.  He has ample weapons in London, Bijan Robinson, Pitts and several complementary receivers to get the most out of his talents.

But it's the improvement on defense that should be most noticeable.  The Falcons have struggled to find a pass rush for years, so they used two first-round picks on Georgia's Jalen Walker and Tennessee's James Pearce Jr. They also added former 49er Leonard Floyd.

The Tampa Bay Bucs figure to take a step back this season.  They went 10-7 last year to win the NFC South before losing at home to the Commanders.  They lost offensive coordinator Liam Coen to the Jaguars, and he was responsible for Baker Mayfield's career season last year.  I don't see Baker being as effective without Coen calling the shots moving forward.

The Bucs are missing some key pieces to open the season due to injury in WR Chris Godwin Jr., WR Jalen McMillian and their best offensive lineman in LT Tristan Wirfs.  Keep in mind the Falcons beat the Bucs in both meetings last season even with Kirk Cousins, so they know how to beat this team.  They'll be extra motivated to knock off the defending division champs in the opener at home.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Steelers/Jets UNDER 38.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers have one of the best defenses in the NFL this season.  I expect their offense to get off to a slow start with Aaron Rodgers signing with the team so late in the season.  Mike Tomlin is 32-9 UNDER as a road favorite in his career.

The New York Jets are going to be a defensive-minded team under first-year head coach Aaron Glenn, who was the defensive coordinator of the Lions last year.  They do have a proven defensive coordinator in Steve Wilks and a lot of talent on that side of the ball for him to get the most out of.  

But the offense is going to be a mess with Justin Fields at QB, very little talent around him and a young, banged up offensive line.  They will be learning new schemes under new coordinator Tanner Engstrand and won't hit the ground running at all.  Speaking of running, the Jets will be a power running team this season because their offense is limited with Fields' inability to pass the football consistently.

I also like the UNDER due to these teams' familiarity with these two starting quarterbacks.  Rodgers was with the Jets last year, while Fields was with the Steelers.  Both defensive coordinators will be able to scheme it up to take away their strengths and expose their weaknesses.  There has also been a lot of rain Sunday morning that could mess up the field.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Giants +6

The New York Giants figure to be one of the most improved teams in the NFL this season.  The only knock on them is playing one of the toughest schedules in the league.  But they will be a live underdog all season, starting with Week 1 against the Washington Commanders.

The Giants should have the best pass rush in the NFL with Burns, Lawrence II, Thibodeaux and rookie Abdul Carter, who has been getting rave reviews all through training camp.  Veteran Russell Wilson should help stabilize the offense and keep them in games because he isn't going to be making the same mistakes that Daniel Jones, Tommy DeVito and company made prior to his arrival.  I like some of his young weapons most notably WR Malik Nabers and RB Tyrone Tracy Jr.

The Washington Commanders are overvalued this season after making the playoffs and beating the Bucs and Lions.  They went 9-2 in games decided by 7 points or fewer last season and were extremely lucky in close games.  Two of those close wins came against the Giants by 3 and 5 in their two meetings, and that was a Giants team led by Daniel Jones that wasn't nearly as strong as they will be this season.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

15* Chiefs/Chargers AFC West ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles +3

The Kansas City Chiefs lost the Super Bowl last year in a blowout to the Philadelphia Eagles.  Super Bowl losers tend to have hangovers the following season, especially in Week 1.  Since 2000, the team that lost the Super Bowl the previous season is just 5-19 ATS in Week 1.

Amazingly, the Kansas City Chiefs went 12-0 in one-score games including the playoffs last year.  That includes six wins by 3 points or fewer.  Their luck ran out against the Eagles, and I think their luck will run out again this season as I actually have the Broncos winning the AFC West.

The Chiefs got weaker on the offensive line and will be without two key receivers in Rashee Rice (suspension) and Jalen Royals (4th-round pick, injury) to start the season.  This will be a very vanilla Kansas City offense again, and the aging defense figures to regress.

Jim Harbaugh is one of the best head coaches in the NFL.  The Chargers are also going to be in contention in the AFC West in Year 2 for Harbaugh.  He guided them to an 11-6 season in his first year on the job.  The core of the team returns, plus they added impact rookies to give Justin Herbert the playmakers he was lacking last season.

They used their first-round pick in UNC RB Omarion Hampton and their second-round pick on WR Tre Harris out of Ole Miss.  They also brought back WR Keenan Allen, who has a tremendous connection with Herbert.  They are fully healthy heading into Week 1 with the exception of LT Rashawn Slater.

After losing their 1st meeting with the Chiefs 17-10 with a banged up Herbert, the Chargers gave the Chiefs all they wanted in a 19-17 road loss in their 2nd meeting.  Amazingly, four of the last six meetings in this series were decided by 3 points or fewer, so getting 3 points with the Chargers in this neutral site game in Brazil is a great value.  Bet the Chargers Friday.

20* Cowboys/Eagles NFL Total DOMINATOR on OVER 46.5

The Eagles are the clear-cut best team in the NFC this season in my opinion.  They bring back their core from the team that won the Super Bowl especially on offense.  They are loaded once again with one of the best O-Lines in the NFL, plus the quartet of Hurts, Barkley, Brown and Smith.  The Eagles did have some key losses on defense that could have them taking a step back this season.

The Cowboys are also loaded on offense with a healthy Dak Prescott throwing the ball to Lamb, Pickens, Tolbert, Ferguson and Turpin.  They are going to be forced to try and win shootouts all season because their defense is going to be terrible.

They already had one of the worst defenses in the league, and it's even worse now without Micah Parsons.  They ranked 10th against the pass last season with Parsons on the field, but 31st without him.  That includes dead last (32nd) allowing 8.4 yards per pass attempt without him on the field.

The Eagles scored 41 and 34 points in their two meetings with the Cowboys last season.  They will hang another big number Thursday night to lead the way in us cashing this OVER 46.5 ticket.  The Cowboys should do their part scoring enough playing from behind to contribute to this total.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Cowboys/Eagles NFL Season Opener on Philadelphia -7

Note: I have placed 6-point teasers wheeling them all together with every combination of the Eagles -1, Broncos -2, Falcons +8.5, Bears +7.5 & Ravens +7.5. Just make sure you can get the favorites to -2.5 or better and the dogs to +7.5 or better or don't place them. Also make sure you get -130 or better or don't place them.

I grabbed the Eagles -7 as soon as the Micah Parsons news came out and would still play it above 7.  But this is a prime example as to why my long-term subscribers get the best line available upon release, while clients who sign up later in the week don't have that advantage.

The Eagles are the clear-cut best team in the NFC this season in my opinion.  They bring back their core from the team that won the Super Bowl especially on offense.  They are loaded once again with one of the best O-Lines in the NFL, plus the quartet of Hurts, Barkley, Brown and Smith.

They are still loaded along the front seven defensively and at cornerback, though they do lose a few key pieces in the secondary.  Either way, Vic Fangio is one of the best defensive coordinators in the league and they will once again be among the league's best.

The Cowboys remain a dumpster fire under Jerry Jones.  They are going through coaching changes once again and will be breaking in all new schemes with every unit.  They already had one of the worst defenses in the league, and it's even worse now without Parsons.  They ranked 10th against the pass last season with Parsons on the field, but 31st without him.  That includes dead last (32nd) allowing 8.4 yards per pass attempt without him on the field.

Since 2000, Super Bowl champs from the previous season are 21-4 SU & 14-9-2 ATS.  They tend to come out with their hair on fire in front of their home fans, and I think that will be the case for the Eagles tonight as they make easy work of the Cowboys.  The Eagles won both meetings in blowouts last season 41-7 at home and 34-6 on the road.  Bet the Eagles Thursday.

25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Philadelphia Eagles +2

Note: Check out my favorite Super Bowl Prop Bets below the analysis. I also recommend a medium-sized wager (15*) on a 6.5-point teaser on Eagles +8/OVER 42 and another equivalent of a 10* on Eagles 1st Half +0.5 (-125). I have also placed a much smaller wager (5*, like a free pick) on Eagles -7.5 Alternate Line (+330) which can all be found at Draft Kings currently.

The Kansas City Chiefs will be going for the first 3-peat in Super Bowl history.  That's a lot of added pressure for them.  This has been easily the luckiest run we've ever seen in the NFL.  The Chiefs are 17-0 in their last 17 one score games.  Their luck runs out in Super Bowl 59.

The Eagles are the worst matchup for the Chiefs of any of their previous Super Bowl opponents of the Patrick Mahomes era.  The Eagles are better across the board everywhere but quarterback.  And I think everyone is sleeping on Jalen Hurts as he had one of the best games of his career the last time these teams met in the Super Bowl.

The Eagles have the better offensive line, the better skill position players, the better running game, and the better defense.  When you consider the Bills closed as a PK at Kansas City in the AFC Championship Game, and the Eagles are underdogs on a neutral, this line is simply off.  The Eagles are better than the Bills, and they are a much tougher matchup for the Chiefs than the Bills were.

The one biggest weakness for Kansas City is their run defense, but teams just haven't been able to exploit it.  It's largely due to those teams playing from behind.  The Bills had success running the ball in the 3rd quarter to take the lead, but then went away from it in the 4th quarter which was a big mistake.  We saw the Ravens get pass-happy against the Chiefs in the playoffs last year.

The Eagles won't get pass-happy, they will go run-heavy, and they will be playing from ahead and able to stick with the run.  The Eagles rank 2nd in the NFL in rushing at 186.6 yards per game only behind the Ravens.  They are 5th at 5.1 yards per carry, and they have the best RB in the league in Saquon Barkley to feed over and over again.

Jalen Hurts is a dual-threat who proved his knee wasn't an issue against the Commanders by rushing for three touchdowns.  He would have rushed for another but it was called back by a penalty.  Hurts kills man-to-man defense, which is what the Chiefs run the most of.  

The Chiefs run the 5th-highest rate of man-to-man coverage in the NFL.  Hurts ranks 3rd in QBR against man coverage this season with a 15-to-2 TD/INT ratio.  He can also beat man with his legs with defenders' backs turned.  Expect deep shots over and over again to AJ Brown, and Dallas Goedert to take advantage of a Chiefs defense that allowed more receiving yards to TE's than any other team in the league this season.

While I'm confident the Eagles will move the ball at will on the Chiefs on the ground and through the air, what I really like most about this matchup is this grossly underrated Philadelphia defense.  Remarkably, the Eagles have allowed 23 points or fewer in 15 of their last 16 games.  The Chiefs didn't score more than 30 points in any game all season until putting up 32 on a overrated, beat up Bills defense in the AFC Championship Game.

Philadelphia defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has the luxury of getting pressure on opponents without blitzing due to having one of the most dominant defensive lines in the NFL.  He also has one of the best secondary's in the league.  Teams that give Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs trouble are ones that can get pressure without blitzing.

The Texans gave the Chiefs all kinds of trouble in the Divisional Round with a similar defense that can get pressure without blitzing while also boasting an elite secondary.  The Texans held the Chiefs to just 212 total yards and the Chiefs were fortunate to get out of that game with a victory.  

The Eagles do what the Texans do, only better.  Philadelphia ranks 1st in the NFL in total defense at 289.3 yards per game, 1st at 5.0 yards per play and 2nd in scoring at 17.9 points per game.  Mahomes and company haven't seen a defense this dominant all season.  So when the Eagles get the lead, I think they can add to the lead by running the football and controlling the clock, and I think their defense can get the necessary stops to finally prevent a Kansas City comeback.  

Since 2003, teams that had a first-round bye like Kansas City against teams that didn't have a first-round bye like the Eagles in the Super Bowl are 0-10 ATS in 10 tries.  They are 1-8 SU & 0-9 ATS in their last nine tries with the only winning SU team being the Steelers on a last-second TD against the Cardinals in 2009.  Bet the Eagles in Super Bowl 59.

Super Bowl Props: (Listed in order of favorite to least favorite)

DO NOT bet more than your usual bet size on my daily free picks on any of these. My free picks are 5* and my premiums are 25*, 20* & 15*.  Bet accordingly and responsibly. Good luck everyone!

Hurts Anytime TD (-110)

- Hurts has scored a rushing TD in 10 of his last 13 games.

- One game he didn't he got hurt in the 1Q against Washington.

- Tush Push from the 1 is a no brainer.

Barkley Anytime TD (-190)

Barkley O 109.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Barkley MVP (+280)

- If the game plays out as I expect, a heavy dose of Barkley will be the biggest reason the Eagles win.

- Great value here on his MVP odds if you think the Eagles are going to win.

- At least 118 rushing yards in 5 straight games & 7 TD in those 5 games. 25 or more attempts in 4 of 5 games.

- Chiefs weakness is Run D. 149 rushing yards & 5.1 per attempt allowed to Texans. 147 rushing yards and 4.6 per attempt allowed to Bills.

O 7.5 Players with a Rush Attempt (-150)

- Mahomes, Hunt, Pacheco, Worthy, not even including Perine

- Barkley, Gainwell, Hurts and likely Goedert or Smith

- Goedert had 2 rushing attempts for 13 yards against the Commanders.

Perine O 6.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

- Perine at least 8 receiving yards in 14 of his last 15 games.

UNDER 6.5 Total Punts (-128)

- Both teams go for it on 4th down a lot, especially the Eagles. Both teams pretty methodical, ball control offenses too so there should be fewer possessions.

Both teams with 1+ Passing TD & 1+ Rushing TD (+220)

- Feels pretty safe to say Mahomes will get a passing TD, Hunt, Pacheco or Mahomes are likely to get a rushing TD, and Barkley or Hurts are guaranteed to get a rushing TD, so then it comes down to Hurts throwing a TD.  He should find at least one big play in the passing game against this heavy man-to-man Chiefs defense.

Zach Baun O 9.5 Tackles + Assists (-130)

- 10-plus tackles in 7 of his last 13 games.

- Nokobe Dean (128 tackles) lost for the season against Green Bay.

- More falls on Baun's shoulders now.

Hunt Anytime TD (+145)

- Hunt 4 straight games with a TD, taking over lead role from Pacheco especially at the goal line.

Goedert O 51.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Goedert O 4.5 Receptions (-125)

- Goedert averaging 6 receptions for 62.7 yards per game in the playoffs

- Chiefs give up more receiving yards to TE's than any other team in the NFL.

Goedert MVP (+12000)

- Worth a stab with Chiefs allowing more receiving yards to TE's than any other team in the NFL. Goedert has been huge for Eagles in playoffs and if he gets 100-plus yards and a score or two he could steal the MVP award.

Late adds Sunday:

Favorite 3 adds:

Worthy O 5.5 Rushing (-122)

Eagles O 3.5 Players w/ a rush attempt (+152)

Smith O 50.5 Receiving

Much smaller bets:

Smith Anytime TD +250

Smith MVP +6500

Perine Anytime TD +1300

20* Bills/Chiefs AFC Championship No-Brainer on Buffalo +2

Note: If you receive this play by Monday, I recommend a 6-point teaser on the Bills +8 or better paired with Ohio State -2.5 or better.  If you receive this play after Monday, my 2nd-favorite option is a 6-point teaser with the Bills +8 or better paired with the Commanders +11.5 or better.

I was on the Kansas City Chiefs -7.5 against the Houston Texans last week.  I didn't think the Texans would be able to do enough offensively missing two of their top three weapons in Dell and Diggs to be able to keep up with the Chiefs.  I was fortunate to cash that Chiefs -7.5 ticket.

The Chiefs won 23-14 despite giving up 336 total yards to the Texans and managing just 212 themselves, getting outgained by 124 yards.  They benefited from two missed field goals by the Texans as well.  As I said, I was very fortunate to cash that ticket.

I think Kansas City's luck runs out this week.  They have been winning close games all season.  But the one game they didn't win where their starters played the entire way was November 17th at Buffalo.  The Bills beat the Chiefs 30-21.  They held the Chiefs to just 259 total yards and outgained them by 107 yards with 366 of their own.

The Bills are actually 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six meetings with the Chiefs with the two losses coming in OT on the road and by 3 at home.  They clearly have the recipe to beat the Chiefs, and now it's up to them to go out and execute it in the playoffs to get the massive monkey off their back.  I think they are ready to dethrone the champs and will be the extra motivated team to do so.  They are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four trips to Kansas City with the lone loss being in OT with the Chiefs winning the coin toss.

A couple advantages for the Bills that really stick out are red zone offense and Josh Allen's ability to beat the blitz.  The Bills rank 2nd in red zone TD percentage at 69%, so they cash in on their opportunities.  The Chiefs can't run the ball in the red zone which is why they are just 24th in red zone TD percentage at 53%.  

The Chiefs are the 4th-most blitz-heavy defense in the NFL, and Allen ranks 2nd among QB's in EPA against the blitz with a 16-to-1 TD/INT ratio.  The Bills held Travis Kelce to 2 catches for 8 yards in that first meeting this season.  They know taking him out of the game is key KC's offensive success and they'll focus in on that again.  

Josh Allen had a MVP season and he's ready for his MVP moment in the playoffs by outdueling Mahomes.  He has led the Bills to 30 or more points in 10 of his last 12 games and the two he didn't he had 27 against the Ravens and 24 against the Patriots.  This is the best Buffalo offense since Allen was drafted.  This is one of the worst Kansas City offenses of the Mahomes era.  The Chiefs haven't scored more than 30 points in any game all season!

No NFL team has ever won three straight Super Bowls.  Every team going for a three-peat that has gotten to the conference championship game has lost.  This is where the run ends for the Chiefs. Most fans are tired of the Chiefs getting all the calls.  Well, Clete Blakeman is the head ref.  The Chiefs are only 6-5 with Blakeman as the head ref and have a losing record with him since 2018.  Home teams are just 5-11 SU the last 16 games Blakeman has reffed, so he doesn't mind pissing off the home fans.  Bet the Bills Sunday.

15* NFL TOTAL OF THE DAY on Commanders/Eagles OVER 46.5

47 and 48 are key numbers on NFL totals.  Once this number dropped to 46.5 at Draftkings I pulled the trigger on the OVER.  I'm confident the Commanders are going to hang 24-plus, and there's a good chance the Eagles get 24-plus as well.

The Commanders have scored at least 23 points in seven of their last eight games overall.  They are fully healthy on offense aside from one offensive linemen, and they just hung 45 points and 481 total yards on the Lions last week.  Austin Ekeler being back healthy gives them another added dimension with his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield.

The Eagles are going to have to throw the ball more today because the Commanders are going to do everything they can to stop the run.  That could create some bigger plays in the passing game than the Eagles have had to in these two playoff games.  The Eagles have scored at least 22 points in each of the last 13 games in which their starters played.

The game script has forced the Eagles to be very conservative on offense thus far.  They jumped out to leads against both the Packers and Rams.  The Packers were also hampered by injuries to three of their top receivers.  The Rams had plenty of success against them going for 402 total yards last week.  The Commanders will have similar success.

The Eagles are without LB Dean and CB Mitchell is banged up with a shoulder injury that forced him out of the Rams game last week.  Washington lost DT Payne who is their best run stuffer.  The Commanders put up 36 points on this Eagles defense in their final meeting.  That was a 36-33 shootout for 69 combined points.  We only need 47-plus in the rematch to cash this OVER. The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 40's and single-digit winds in Philadelphia today.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Commanders/Eagles NFC Championship No-Brainer on Washington +5.5

Note: I also recommend a 6-point teaser on the Commanders +11.5 or better paired with the Bills +8 or better.

The Washington Commanders are 14-4 SU in their last 18 games overall with all four losses coming by 8 points or less.  What more does this team have to do to get some respect?

Everyone keeps making a big deal about Jayden Daniels being a rookie quarterback.  But he may be the best rookie QB we've ever seen.  Daniels has taken just one sack on 28 pressures and hasn't committed a single turnover in two playoff games with only one turnover-worthy play.

I would argue the Commanders have the better quarterback in this matchup and it's not close.  That's especially the case after Jalen Hurts came up limp with a knee injury against the Rams last week.  He wasn't effective at all throwing or running after suffering the knee injury, and there's no chance he's going to be fully recovered this week even though he is expecting to play.

The Eagles came into the playoffs with all 22 starters healthy from Week 1.  But that's not the case any more.  They lost their leading tackler in LB Nakobe Dean (128 tackles regular season) against Green Bay.  He has had 22 tackles in two games against Washington and is a big loss.  CB Quinyon Mitchell suffered a shoulder injury that knocked him out last week, and C Cam Jurgens (Back) and TE Dallas Goedert (ankle) have yet to practice this week as of Thursday and are questionable.

The Rams had two costly fumbles that basically gave the Eagles the game last week.  The Rams moved the ball up and down the field on the Eagles with 402 total yards.  The Commanders beat the Eagles 36-33 in their final regular season meeting, overcoming five turnovers which is almost nearly impossible.  Daniels threw 5 touchdowns on this Eagles defense, which was their worst performance of the season.

I know the Commanders can move the football and score on Philadelphia again.  I also think they can shut down Hurts and the passing game as AJ Brown just isn't fully healthy and has been a non-factor the last two weeks.  The key will be limiting Saquon Barkley, who has had two big games against Washington this season.  I think Dan Quinn will make the proper adjustments and stack the box and make the hobbled Hurts try and beat them through the air.  I don't think he can do it, especially since his mobility is now severely limited and the Commanders won't have to worry about him taking off and running.

The Commanders are full of confidence right now going 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games.  They feel like they are unbeatable at this point, going into this game with a ton of confidence.  They beat two loaded offensive teams in the Bucs and Lions on the road, and now they won't be phased by going back to Philadelphia, a place they are very familiar.  The Eagles were fortunate to get by the Packers and Rams, and now they meet their match here in Washington.  Bet the Commanders Sunday.

25* NFL Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Commanders/Lions OVER 55

These are two of the best offensive teams in the NFL up against two of the worst defenses in the league.  The books haven't set this total high enough even though it's the highest total of the playoffs.

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team in their current form.  They are remarkably healthy on offense with one of the best offenses in the league that ranks 1st in scoring (33.2 PPG), 2nd in total offense (409.5 YPG) and 4th in yards per play (6.4 YPP).  The only important player on offense they are missing heading into the playoffs is RG Kevin Zeitler, but they have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and plenty of depth.

The Lions have more injuries on defense than any team in the NFL.  They have 12 defenders on IR or ruled out.  And many of them are key contributors including DE Aidan Hutchinson, DT Alim McNeill, LB Malcolm Rodriquez and CB Carlton Davis III.  Those four are all starters and the Lions miss them greatly.

Detroit has been forced to try and win shootouts down the stretch going 4-1 OVER in their final five games.  They accomplished it in Week 14 with a 34-31 win over Green Bay, but they couldn't in Week 15 with a 48-42 loss to Buffalo.  They allowed 559 yards to the Bills.  They even tried an onside kick in the 2H because they knew they couldn't stop the Bills.  Goff threw for 494 yards and 5 TD in the loss.

In Week 16, the Lions beat the Bears 34-17 for 51 combined points.  But this game was 34-17 with 6:03 left in the 3rd quarter.  That means they didn't score for 20 minutes which just goes to show how much potential there is for more points.  The Lions called off the dogs, and the Bears were inept on offense.  The Lions had 475 yards on 7.3 yards per play, while the Bears had 382 yards on 6.5 yards per play but they shot themselves in the foot with turnovers and penalties including several holding penalties with a banged up offensive line.

In Week 17, the Lions beat the 49ers 40-34 for 74 combined points.  The 49ers even left some points on the board missing two field goals and a XP.  The only thing that stopped them was two bad INT's by Brock Purdy.  This game had 10 touchdowns and zero punts! That's the first time since 1937 that has happened in a game, and it just goes to show just how much of an OVER team the Lions are.

Week 18 resulted in a fluky 31-9 win over the Minnesota Vikings.  The Vikings just couldn't punch it in in the red zone or they easily could have made that a game.  Sam Darnold had one of the worst games of his career consistently overthrowing receivers.  He also missed some wide open receivers.  Darnold had an equally terrible games against the Rams as he just couldn't handle the pressure of these must-win games.

Washington is going to be able to match Detroit score for score.  The Commanders rank 5th in scoring at 28.2 points per game, 7th in total offense at 368.6 yards per game and 9th at 5.9 yards per play.  The Lions are blitzing a ton to try and make up for all their injuries on defense.  It worked against the Vikings, but it's not going to work against the Commanders.

Jayden Daniels ranks 3rd in the NFL in EPA per dropback against the blitz.  He has rushed for 891 yards and 6 TD while averaging 6 yards per carry this season.  He scrambled 13% of the time against the blitz, which was more than any other QB in the NFL, and he accumulated more EPA than any other QB on his scrambles against the Blitz.

Aaron Glenn keeps blitzing heavy with this patchwork defense.  He is going to pay this week against Daniels.  The Lions have allowed a league-high 445 rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks this season.  The Lions play the 2nd-highest rate of man coverage, which is going to open things up for Daniels.  In recent seasons, Justin Fields rushed for 147, 132, 104 and 58 yards against Detroit.  Hurts rushed for 90 and Allen 78.  Stopping dual-threat QB's is something Glenn has not been able to figure out.

There's not a lot to like about this Washington defense, either.  The Commanders rank 18th in scoring at 22.8 points per game and 18th at 5.7 yards per play.  They allow 4.7 yards per carry on the ground which ranks 28th.  They play the 6th-highest rate of man coverage in the NFL this season, and Jared Goff ranks 1st in the NFL in EPA per play against man coverage.  The last team the Lions faced that played this much man covers was the Jaguars, who they hung 52 points on in Week 11.

Detroit and Washington are both aggressive on 4th downs and both have been wildly successful this season.  So these teams won't be settling for FG's they will be going for touchdowns.  The aggression will lead to more points offensively, but also possibly create some short fields for their opponents if they fail as well.

The Lions have scored at least 31 points in five consecutive games and they will get to at least 31 in this one.  I don't think it's much to ask the Commanders to get 24-plus, and I'm expecting more out of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Commanders/Lions NFC No-Brainer on Washington +10

The Washington Commanders are 13-4 SU in their last 17 games overall.  All four losses came by 8 points or less, including road losses to the Eagles by 8 and the Ravens by 7, and I would argue both the Ravens and Eagles are better than the Lions.  This makes for a 17-0 system backing the Commanders pertaining to this 10-point spread.

The reason I say the Ravens and Eagles are better is because they actually play defense.  The Lions have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, and the Commanders are never going to be out of this game because of that fact.

The Lions have more injuries on defense than any team in the NFL.  They have 12 defenders on IR or ruled out.  And many of them are key contributors including DE Aidan Hutchinson, DT Alim McNeill, LB Malcolm Rodriquez and CB Carlton Davis III.  Those four are all starters and the Lions miss them greatly.  The Lions rank 27th in the NFL allowing 5.9 yards per play this season.

Washington is going to be able to match Detroit score for score.  The Commanders rank 5th in scoring at 28.2 points per game, 7th in total offense at 368.6 yards per game and 9th at 5.9 yards per play.  The Lions are blitzing a ton to try and make up for all their injuries on defense.  It worked against the Vikings, but it's not going to work against the Commanders.

Jayden Daniels ranks 3rd in the NFL in EPA per dropback against the blitz.  He has rushed for 891 yards and 6 TD while averaging 6 yards per carry this season.  He scrambled 13% of the time against the blitz, which was more than any other QB in the NFL, and he accumulated more EPA than any other QB on his scrambles against the Blitz.

Aaron Glenn keeps blitzing heavy with this patchwork defense.  He is going to pay this week against Daniels.  The Lions have allowed a league-high 445 rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks this season.  The Lions play the 2nd-highest rate of man coverage, which is going to open things up for Daniels.  In recent seasons, Justin Fields rushed for 147, 132, 104 and 58 yards against Detroit.  Hurts rushed for 90 and Allen 78.  Stopping dual-threat QB's is something Glenn has not been able to figure out.  Washington remains underrated as double-digit underdogs this week.  Bet the Commanders Saturday.