20* Saints/Rams NFC Sunday No-Brainer on Los Angeles -2.5

The New Orleans Saints are simply overvalued right now.  They are 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall and have become public darlings.  They found themselves laying nearly double-digits against the Redskins last week, and they needed two late touchdowns to escape with a 34-31 victory.  Now they are only 2.5-point dogs on the road to the Rams this week, who are at least at their level.  I think the value is with the Rams as only 2.5-point home favorites here.

Kirk Cousins had a big game against the Saints last week.  He guided the Redskins to 31 points and 456 total yards and played well enough to win.  But a lot of that had to do with cluster injuries for the Saints on defense.  The Saints were already without safety Kenny Vaccaro coming into the game.  Then they lost three more starters throughout the game.  They lost leading tackler A.J. Klein, top pass rusher Alex Okafor, and their rookie first-round pick in CB Marshon Lattimore.  Now all four players are either questionable or out this week.

Jared Goff and the Rams' high-octane attack should be able to exploit these injuries as well.  The Rams average 30.3 points and 375 yards per game as one of the league's top offenses.  And I like the way this Rams defense is playing, giving up just over 13 points per game in their last six games.  They are allowing just 14.7 PPG at home.

The Saints have mostly been beating up on cupcake opponents during their eight-game winning streak.  This Rams team will be the best opponent they have faced since getting blown out by the Patriots in Week 2.  The Saints also lost by double-digits to the Vikings in Week 1, the same Vikings team the Rams lost to last week.  So this will be a step up in class for New Orleans against a motivated Rams team looking to contend for a first-round bye, and getting the tiebreaker over the Saints here would go a long way to accomplishing that.

Plays on home favorites (LA Rams) - after having won three of their last four games against a hot opponent that has won eight or more of their last 10 games are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Saints are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 road games after allowing 6.5 or more yards per play in their previous game.  The home team has won four straight meetings and the home team is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

15* Seahawks/49ers NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco +7

The San Francisco 49ers are coming off their bye week.  They certainly went into their bye feeling rejuvenated after picking up their first win of the season, a 31-21 home victory over the New York Giants.  They certainly earned it and deserve a few more wins rather than being 1-9 on the season.

Remember, this team lost an NFL-record five straight games by 3 points or less earlier this year.  That's how close the 49ers are to being 6-4 rather than 1-9.  They should probably be somewhere in between.  And I think they are showing tremendous value this week as 7-point home underdogs to the Seattle Seahawks.

The Seahawks are only a shell of their former selves right now due to all their injuries.  CB Shaquill Griffin, CB Richard Sherman and S Kam Chancellor all all out.  They are so thin in the secondary that they had to re-sign former Seahawk Byron Maxwell, who shouldn't even be playing in the league.

The injuries go much deeper than that.  TE Jimmy Graham, OT Duane Brown, G Luke Joeckel, DE Dion Jordan, DT Jarran Reed, LB Bobby Wagner, LB Michael Wilhoite and LB D.J. Alexander are all questionable.  So not only are the decimated in the secondary, but they are in trouble in the front seven as well with five linemen or linebackers questionable, including their defensive leader in Wagner.

This defense was torched for 34 points by the Atlanta Falcons on Monday Night Football.  That means the Seahawks are not only ridiculously banged up, but now they will be working on a short week and won't have as much time to recover.  Meanwhile, the 49ers have had 13 days off since their last game and come into this game as healthy as they have been since the beginning of the season.

One of those close losses by the 49ers came earlier this season in Seattle, when they lost 9-12 as 13.5-point underdogs.  They rushed for 159 yards on the Seahawks in that game and should find some success against their front seven again this week.  The bye week will be great for C.J. Beathard as well, and he should be able to take advantage of this cast of misfits in Seattle's secondary.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (SEATTLE) - a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a terrible team (winning 25% or less) after 8-plus games are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The 49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. NFC West opponents.  The Seahawks are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall and are once again overvalued this week.  Roll with the 49ers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bears +14

Since Mitch Trubisky became the starting quarterback of the Chicago Bears, they have not lost a game by more than 8 points.  That's a span of six games dating back to a 20-17 home loss to Minnesota.  They upset both Baltimore on the road and Carolina at home.  Then they only lost by 8 at New Orleans, by 7 to Green Bay and by 3 to Detroit.

Trubisky isn't making a ton of big plays, but the key is that he isn't making the same costly mistakes that Mike Glennon was before him.  The Bears have only committed seven turnovers in six games since he took over, inlcuidng just three in their last four games.  That has allowed them to rely on their defense and running game, which are the two strengths of this team.

This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Philadelphia Eagles.  I was on the Eagles last week as my 25* Sunday Night Game of the Year.  I cashed that easy with a 37-9 win over the Cowboys.  But that was a great spot for the Eagles coming off their bye, and with all of the injuries to the Cowboys.  Now, after beating their biggest rivals, the Eagles will be flat this week against the Bears.

Philadelphia does have a good run defense, but it hasn't been tested much this season because teams have been playing from behind.  Opposing teams only average 19 rush attempts against Philadelphia.  Because I expect the Eagles to come out flat, the Bears won't have to abandon the running game.  They will be able to stick to their game plan, and that should be to run the ball 30-plus times to try and shorten the game and keep it close, which is precisely what they've been doing since Trubisky took over.  As a result, they've had a chance to win each of their last six games.

Will Philadelphia eventually win this game? Most likely.  But asking them to win by more than two touchdowns to beat us is simply asking too much this week.  There's no question that the Eagles are overvalued right now due to their 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS record.  Now this is the biggest favorites they have been all season, and it's only the second time they've been double-digit favorites.

John Fox is 9-2 ATS versus good offensive teams that average 5.65 or more yards per play as the coach of Chicago. The Bears are only losing to these good teams by an average of 2.6 points per game on average.  Fox takes pride in his defenses being able to contain the top offenses like the Eagles.  The Bears are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.  The underdog is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  I think the Eagles get more of a fight than they bargained for this week.  Take the Bears Sunday.

15* Giants/Redskins Thanksgiving Night DESSERT on New York +7.5

The Washington Redskins can't be 7.5-point favorites against the division rival New York Giants.  They have never been good in the favorite role.  They have only been favored in one of their 10 games this season, and they nearly lost outright as 11-point favorites over the 49ers in a 26-24 home victory.  So they'll be favored for just the second time all season here.

The laundry list of injuries for the Redskins is too long to name.  They have cluster injuries on the offensive line, and all three of their running backs are hurt.  Rob Kelley was already out for the season, and then last week Chris Thompson (39 receptions, 510 yards, 294 rushing yards, 6 total TD) suffered a fractured fibula.  Samaje Perine had a big game, but he also suffered a finger injury that has him questionable this week.  They also lost their big free agent acquisition Terrelle Pryor to a season-ending injury.  Star TE Jordan Reid has missed the past three games with a hamstring issue.

Kirk Cousins had a big game against the Saints last week, but a lot of that had to do with cluster injuries for the Saints on defense.  They Saints were already without safety Kenny Vaccaro, but then leading tackler A.J. Klein, top pass rusher Alex Okafor, and rookie first-round pick CB Marshon Lattimore all left with injuries throughout the game.

Cousins took advantage, but their defense couldn't hold the lead as the Saints scored touchdowns on their final two possessions or regulation.  This defense has cluster injuries among the front seven, and it's a defense that has been torched in recent weeks.  The Redskins have allowed 33 or more points in four of their last five games.  They have given up an average of 459.3 yards per game in their last three.

The Giants showed some heart last week in upsetting the Chiefs 12-9 as 10-point home underdogs.  It was a great performance as the Chiefs were in an ideal spot coming off their bye week.  Now this team can relax and start playing more freely after proving their naysayers wrong.  And they will be looking forward to trying to wreck Washington's season for a second consecutive year.

Offensively, the Giants have gotten their ground game going to try and take some pressure off of Eli Manning.  They have done so successfully by rushing for at least 111 yards in five of their last six games overall.  Their defense still has the talent to be a very good unit moving forward after being one of the best units in the NFL last year.  They showed their teeth in limiting the Chiefs to just three field goals and holding them out of the end zone last week.

Last season, in Week 17, the Redskins just needed a win to get in the playoffs.  The Giants had nothing to play for as they were already in the playoffs.  The Giants went into Washington and won 19-10 as 9.5-point underdogs.  That win just continued the dominance of the Giants in this head-to-head series with the Redskins, which is another reason Washington cannot be favored by more than a touchdown here.

Indeed, the Giants are 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Redskins.  The Redskins have won three times in the last 10 meetings, but all three wins came by 6 points or less.  That makes for a 10-0 system backing the Giants here.  You have to go all the way back to 2011 to find the last time the Redskins beat the Giants by more than a touchdown.  

The Redskins are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.  The underdog is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 meetings.  Washington is 40-69 ATS in its last 109 games as a home favorite.  New York is 7-0 ATS vs. good passing teams who average 7 or more yards per attempt in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  Take the Giants Thursday.

20* Chargers/Cowboys Thanksgiving Day FEAST on Los Angeles PK

The Dallas Cowboys have been a mess since losing arguably the three best players on the roster in Ezekiel Elliott, Tyron Smith and Sean Lee.  Both Elliott and Lee are expected to be out against the Chargers this week once again, while Smith is a game-time decision.

The offense has really struggled without Elliott and Smith in a 7-27 loss to the Falcons and a 9-36 loss to the Eagles.  They have managed just 8.0 points per game and 229 yards per game in those two contests while committing six turnovers.  The play-action just doesn't work now because opposing defense don't have to respect Elliott and the running game like they normally do.  It's proving that Dak Prescott is no more than an average quarterback.  Not having Smith has allowed the Falcons and Eagles to sack Prescott a combined 12 times.

The Cowboys have been much better defensively when Lee is on the field than when he isn't.  They have given up 32 points per game in the these past two games without him.  Coming into the Philadelphia games, Dallas was giving up a QB rating of 85 to opponents with Lee on the field, and a 108 rating with him off the field.  They were giving up 3.5 yards per carry with him on the field, and 5.5 yards per carry with him off the field.  He is as important to the Cowboys as Luke Kuechly is to the Panthers.  And now fellow LB Anthony Hitchens, who was taking his place, suffered a groin injury against the Eagles last week and was forced to leave the game.  He is questionable to play this week.

The Chargers are much better than their 4-6 record would indicate.  They have turned the corner, going 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their two losses both came on the road to the Patriots and Jaguars in game efforts by a combined 11 points, including an OT loss to Jacksonville in a game they should have won.  The four wins have come by an average of 14.3 points per game.

The Chargers have an underrated defense that is giving up just 19.3 points per game this year.  They will be able to wreak havoc in the Cowboys' backfield all game thanks to the duo of Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram harassing Dak Prescott for four quarters.  And Philip Rivers and the offense really got going last week, racking up 54 points and 429 yards against the Bills.  They should be able to move the ball and score points at will against this Lee-less Cowboys defense.

The road team is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games over the past three seasons.  The Chargers are 8-1 ATS in road games after having lost two of their last three games over the past three seasons.  Dallas is 0-7 ATS vs. poor kickoff teams who allow 24 or more yards per return in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Cowboys are 1-7 ATS in their last eight Thursday games.  Bet the Chargers Thursday.

20* Falcons/Seahawks ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Atlanta +3

The fight the Atlanta Falcons showed last week against the Cowboys was impressive.  It was the type of season-saving win that I think bodes well for this team moving forward.  They dominated the Cowboys 27-7, limiting them to just 233 total yards and sacking Dak Prescott eight times.  Veteran Adrian Claiborne played like a man possessed with his six sacks.

And while the Falcons are just 5-4 this season, they have been nearly as good as they were last year from a statistical standpoint.  The Falcons rank 4th in the NFL in offensive yards per play (6.1) and 7th in defensive yards per play (5.0).  They are outgaining teams by 1.1 yards per play, which is one of the most important stats in determining how good a team is.  It is also the best yards per play differential in the NFL, and it's worth noting the Eagles have played a brutal schedule up to this point.

While the Falcons are basically at full strength outside of Devonta Freeman (questionable), the Seattle Seahawks have all kinds of injury issues right now.  Richard Sherman suffered a torn Achilles against the Cardinals last week and has been lost for the season.  Safety Earl Thomas has missed the past two games with a hamstring injury.  CB Shaquille Griffin (shoulder) and S Kam Chancellor (undisclosed) both left the Arizona game and are questionable.  So their secondary is extremely vulnerable, and that's bad news for the Seahawks with what Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and company are capable of doing through the air.

There are offensive line injuries as well with Luke Joeckel still out, and now tackle Duane Brown questionable with an ankle injury suffered against the Cardinals.  Brown was traded to Seattle from the Houston Texans, so they cannot afford to lose him.  Not to mention, DE Frank Clark and DE Marcus Smith are both questionable, while DE Cliff Avril is out for the season, so they are short-handed up front on defense.

The Seahawks are just getting respect because they are 5-1 in their last six games overall.  But each win has an asterisk attached to it.  They actually trailed in the second half at home against the Colts before pulling away late.  They were fortunate to beat the Rams 16-10 despite getting outgained by 134 yards.  Their 24-7 win over the Giants is about par for the course for the Giants right now.  They need a score in the final seconds to beat the Texans 41-38 at home.  They lost 14-17 to the Redskins at home as 8-point favorites.  And they were outgained by the Cardinals last week in their 22-16 win over backup QB Drew Stanton and company.

Atlanta lit up Seattle for 28 first downs and 422 total yards in their 36-20 home win last year.  That win avenged their 24-26 loss at Seattle as 6.5-point dogs earlier in the season as the Seahawks kicked a game-winning field goal in the final minutes, and a pass interference wasn't called on Richard Sherman against Julio Jones that should have been in the closing seconds.  Matt Ryan threw for 323 yards in the playoff game and 310 in the regular season game, so he clearly isn't afraid of this Seattle defense.  The Falcons outgained the Seahawks 784 to 642 in those two meetings combined.

Plays against home favorites (SEATTLE) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in two straight games are 26-7 (78.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Falcons are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs. NFC opponents.  Atlanta is 4-0 ATS in its last four Monday games.  The Seahawks are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the Falcons Monday.

25* NBC Sunday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Philadelphia Eagles -3

The Philadelphia Eagles have quietly gone 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS this season to post the league's best record.  Yet, they don't get the kind of respect that other teams like the Patriots and Steelers do in the AFC.  Nobody just wants to believe in this team, and until they do they're going to continue showing value against the spread.

I think that's the case again this week as the Eagles are only 3-point road favorites over the Dallas Cowboys.  The Eagles are coming off their bye, so they've had two full weeks to rest and get ready for their division rivals.  Playing an NFC East opponent that won the division last year will have kept the Eagles focused all bye week and not relaxing and being content with what they've done up to this point.

Carson Wentz is guiding an elite offense that is putting up 31.4 points, 377 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play.  The defense is improving and getting healthier, giving up just 19.9 points per game, 316 total yards per game and 5.4 yards per play.  The secondary has gotten back a couple key pieces here over the past couple weeks and will be one of the most formidable units in the NFL moving forward.

The Dallas Cowboys are a mess right now.  The Ezekiel Elliott 6-game suspension has been upheld, and he was forced to miss last week's 27-7 loss to the Falcons.  The offense looked lost without him.  The Falcons didn't bite on play action like most teams would when Elliott is in the lineup.  Instead, they sacked Dak Prescott  eight times, including a franchise-record six from Adrian Claiborne.  They held the Cowboys to just 233 total yards.

A big reason Claiborne had such a big game was because he was going up against a backup left tackle in Chaz Green, who was eventually benched.  Green was starting in place of the injured Tyron Smith, who is questionable to return this week, and his value to this team cannot be overstated.  This offense just isn't going to be as effective without Elliott, who has been one of the top two running backs in the league the past two seasons and is worth more to this team than he gets credit for.

Defensively, the Cowboys have all kinds of issues right now.  They seem to go as Sean Lee goes.  When he's in the lineup, they are an average or better defense.  Without him, they are one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  He is nearly as important to their defense as Luke Kuechly is for the Panthers.  And now Lee is expected to miss this game with a hamstring injury he suffered against the Falcons.  Not to mention, CB Chidobe Awuzie, CB Orlando Scandrick, LB Justin Durant and S Jeff Heath are all questionable.

With all of these injuries and suspensions, and with Jerry Jones causing a stir with the NFL, I just don't like the current state of the Cowboys right now.  The Eagles are 6-0 ATS in their last six games off a win.  The Cowboys are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Eagles are getting healthier with Zach Ertz expecting to return this week, and I think they are looking forward to this opportunity to kick the Cowboys while they're down.  Bet the Eagles Sunday.

15* Bills/Chargers AFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Buffalo +4.5

It's pretty simple with the Chargers.  Bet on them when they're an underdog, and bet against them when they're a favorite.  You would have made a lot of money on Chargers games doing just that over the past several season.  The Chargers cannot be laying 4.5 points to the Buffalo Bills this week.

The Chargers lost a game in true Charger fashion last week, falling 17-20 in overtime on the road as 5-point underdogs.  They had the game all but sealed before fumbling in the final few minutes.  Then Philip Rivers threw one of his patented late-game interceptions in overtime to set the Jaguars up for the game-winning field goal.

I certainly do not like the state of mind of the Chargers right now.  They have come out of their bye week and promptly lost two straight to fall to 3-6 on the season.  That leaves them with a slim-to-none chance of making the playoffs.  And fans of this team won't be showing up to the game now as the Chargers actually have zero home-field advantage, which has been one of the most underrated advantages we have in fading the Chargers when at home.  Cuz they still get treated like a good home team from oddsmakers when there really is zero advantage from them, and more often than not they're getting booed.

The Bills sit at 5-4 on the season.  They have lost two in a row, but the outlook is still bright as they are currently the 6th seed in the AFC if the season were to end today.  I think head coach Sean McDermott made the right move to give the ball to Nathan Peterman at quarterback this week.  He looked great in the preseason and could prove to be a fifth-round steal.

Peterman replaced Tyrod Taylor with less than five minutes remaining in Sunday's 47-10 loss to the Saints.  Taylor had completed just 9 of 18 passes for 56 yards, one INT and a career-low 33.6 passer rating despite the debut of receiver Kelvin Benjamin and the return of TE Charles Clay.  Peterman, making his NFL debut, completed 7 of 10 passes for 79 yards and one touchdown in two offensive possessions.  He led a high-octane offense at Pitt last season.

"I've been impressed with Nate and his maturity as a rookie in a very early point in his career," McDermott said. "He's certainly worked hard. When you look at Nate and what he was able to do through OTAs, through training camp, through preseason and then [Sunday], I thought he did some good things, albeit that was a small sample size in a regular-season game. That said, he has a lot of work do, just like we all do."
McDermott later added of Peterman, "He's ready. I wouldn't make this move if I didn't feel he was ready."

Let's be honest, the offense needs a spark, because the defense cannot continue carrying the load like it has up to this point.  Peterman still has the luxury of a great running game with LeSean McCoy and company.  And I have no doubt he will better utilize his weapons outside in Benjamin, Jordan Matthews and Clay.  This offense has simply underperformed up to this point with Taylor at the helm.

It's worth noting that Philip Rivers has been in concussion protocol this week and his status is up in the air for the Chargers.  Starting tackle Joe Barksdale is out, while starting center Matt Slauson and starting guard Forrest Lamp both have season-ending injuries.  Rivers has been under duress all season, so it's no surprise he took a beating last week against the Jaguars.

Buffalo is 52-28 ATS in its last 80 off two or more consecutive ATS losses.  The Bills are a perfect 6-0 ATS off two or more consecutive straight up losses over the last three seasons.  They are coming back to win by an average of 9.7 points per game in this spot.  The Chargers are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games off two straight road losses.  Los Angeles is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 home games.  Roll with the Bills Sunday.

20* Rams/Vikings NFC Sunday No-Brainer on Minnesota -2.5

What do the Minnesota Vikings have to do to get some respect?  Until they do, I'll continue backing them as I did last week as only 1-point favorites over the Redskins in their 38-30 road win.  Now they are only 2.5-point home favorites over the Los Angeles Rams this week.  This game could be an NFC Championship preview, and the Vikings want to make sure they get the tiebreaker with a win here if it comes down to it for home-field advantage and a first-round bye.

The Vikings are the real deal.  They have outgained eight of their nine opponents this season, so their record has not been fluky at all.  They are outgaining opponents by 69 yards per game on the season, which is the sign of an elite team.

Defensively, Mike Zimmer has one of the best stop units in the NFL.  The Vikings rank 5th in total defense (294.6 yards/game) and 3rd in defensive yards per play (4.7) allowed, which is the most important stat.  And the Rams haven't seen a defense this good all season.  The only other that would compare would be Seattle, and they lost at home to the Seahawks 10-16.  They also played the Jaguars and managed just 249 total yards against them.

The one aspect of the Vikings that gets overlook is just how good the offense is.  They rank 9th in the league in total offense (363.8 yards/game) and 8th in offensive yards per play (5.6).  Case Keenum has been one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL, completing 64.9 percent of his passes for 1,914 yards with 11 touchdowns and five interceptions.  It was the right move for Zimmer to announce he is sticking with Keenum because he has earned it, instead of throwing Teddy Bridgewater in there.

I have been a big Rams' backer this season and still really like this team, but I think the betting public has not caught on to how good they are.  The value has been sapped from the Rams this week because they should be catching more than a field goal here on the road, instead they are only 2.5-point dogs.  That places the value squarely with the home favorite Vikings.

The Rams are 7-2 but they are feasting on some bad teams.  Their seven wins have come against the Colts, 49ers, Cowboys, Jaguars, Cardinals, Giants and Texans.  Five of those teams are terrible, while the wins over the Cowboys and Jaguars come with asterisks.  The Rams were coming off a Thursday game while the Cowboys were coming off a Monday game, so they had a huge advantage in rest and preparation.  And they were outgained by 140 yards by the Jagauars and were aided by two non-offensive touchdowns.

Minnesota has one of the most underrated home-field advantages in the NFL.  The Vikings are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 home games.  Minnesota is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Rams are 28-58-1 ATS in their last 87 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Vikings are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Rams, winning by an average of 18.3 points per game.  Take the Vikings Sunday.

20* Titans/Steelers AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tennessee +7

The Tennessee Titans continue getting zero respect from oddsmakers despite their 6-3 start that has included four straight wins coming into this game against Pittsburgh Thursday night.  They failed to cover as 5-point favorites in a 24-20 win over Cincinnati last week, but that game was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  The Titans outgained the Bengals by 108 yards and racked up 416 total yards in the win.

The Steelers have also won four straight coming in, but they continue to get a lot of love from the betting public and oddsmakers, unlike Tennessee.  They aren't getting docked at all for their ugly 20-17 win over the Colts last week as 10.5-point favorites.  The Colts actually led that game 17-3 and arguably should have won despite not having top receiver TY Hilton and missing several key players on defense.

At 7-2 on the season, the Steelers have a three-game lead over second-place Baltimore (4-5) in the AFC North.  I don't expect them to be playing with a sense of urgency because of it, and that showed last week against the Colts.  Meanwhile, Tennessee is in a first-place tie with Jacksonville (also 6-3) and cannot afford to take the foot off the gas.

It's nice to see Marcus Mariota back fully healthy now after dealing with a hamstring injury earlier this year that forced him to miss most of two games.  The Titans are 6-1 in games that Mariota starts and finishes this season.  He threw for 264 yards and rushed for 51 more on six carries last week against Cincinnati, proving that his hamstring issues are a thing of the past.

The Titans have been remarkably healthy otherwise, which has been a key to their success.  The Steelers had been healthy up until last week.  But they are going to be without two key players in their secondary due to injury moving forward.  Safety Mike Mitchell suffered an ankle injury against the Colts and is doubtful, while CB Joe Haden broke his leg against the Colts and is likeley out for the season.  James Harrison is also dealing with a back injury that forced him to miss the Indianapolis game.  Mariota should find plenty of success through the air against the Steelers this week.

The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Titans are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.  Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TENNESSEE) - off two consecutive home wins, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 53-23 (69.7%) ATS since 1983.  The Titans are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games off two consecutive home wins.  They are winning these games by 9.7 points per game on average.  Bet the Titans Thursday.

20* Dolphins/Panthers ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Miami +10

The Miami Dolphins should not be catching double-digits against the Carolina Panthers Monday night.  I'll gladly take advantage of this value and back the Dolphins in what will be a closer game than the books anticipate.  This is clearly a 'buy low, sell high' situation that I like.

We'll 'buy low' on the Dolphins, who have lost two in a row to fall to 4-4 on the season.  That includes their misleading 40-0 loss in Baltimore two weeks ago in which the Ravens scored two non-offensive touchdowns and only managed 295 total yards despite.  Then they played well last week, but came up short in a 24-27 home loss to the Raiders.

Jay Cutler clearly showed against the Raiders that he was healthy.  He completed 34-of-42 passes for 311 yards with three touchdowns and zero interceptions.  Of course, it was a bonus that he got a healthy DeVante Parker back in the lineup.  Parker hadn't been healthy since Week 4.  He contributed five catches for 76 yards in the loss.  His presence will help open things up underneath the rest of the way for guys like Jarvis Landry and Julius Thomas, who both had receiving touchdowns against the Raiders.  Both running backs Kenyon Drake and Damien Williams also finished with six receptions apiece to show their versatility in the absence of the traded Jay Ajayi.

It was really nice to see the Dolphins come through with one of their best offensive outputs of the season, because this team already has a very good defense.  Indeed, the Dolphins rank 10th in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 315.4 yards per game.  They have been very good against the run, giving up only 94 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry.  That will be key in trying to stop a Carolina team that wants to run first and pass second.

We'll 'sell high' on the Panthers, who have won two in a row since their ugly 3-17 loss to Chicago.  Everyone is quick to forget about that loss because they won 17-3 in Tampa Bay and beat Atlanta 20-17 at home the past two weeks, respectively.  That win over the Bucs doesn't look as good now, and Julio Jones dropped a wide open touchdown pass that would have given the Falcons the win last week.  The Panthers are extremely overrated now as they will be the biggest favorites they have been all season this week.

I just don't trust this Carolina offense to put up enough points to be able to cover a double-digit spread.  The Panthers rank 24th in scoring offense (18.7 PPG), 21st in total offense (313.1 YPG) and 26th in offensive yards per play (4.8).  Those aren't the kind of numbers you would expect from a team behing asked to lay double-digits.

Carolina does have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  The Panthers have been great against the run, but that won't be much a factor here because the Dolphins have one of the worst rushing offenses in the NFL already.  The Dolphins are going to rely on Cutler to move the ball through the air, and the weakness of the Panthers is their secondary.  They give up 64.9% completions to opposing quarterbacks.  I think Cutler will have enough success to keep this game close, especially with a weapon like Parker healthy and back in the lineup.

And after beating back-to-back division rivals in Tampa Bay and Atlanta, this is clearly a letdown spot for the Panthers.  Plays against any team (CAROLINA) - off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season are 76-32 (70.4%) ATS since 1983.  Plays against home favorites (CAROLINA) - off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season are 23-6 (79.3%) ATS since 1983.

And he's another system that shows it's a good idea to buy low on teams who have failed recently against the spread by big margins.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MIAMI) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with Carolina.  Bet the Dolphins Monday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Indianapolis Colts +10.5

What more to the Indianapolis Colts have to do to get any respect from oddsmakers and the betting public?  I'm not sure, but I'll take advantage and back them as double-digit home underdogs to the Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday.  They should not be getting this many points with how well they are playing right now.

No team is playing harder than the Colts right now.  Two weeks ago, they went into Cincinnati as 11-point dogs and only lost 23-24 after a pick-6 by the Bengals in the fourth quarter.  They only gave up 276 total yards to the Bengals and outgained them by 55 yards.  Then last week they won 20-14 in Houston as 6-point dogs and outgained them by 83 yards, limiting the Texans to just 288 total yards.

Jacoby Brissett is proving that it was the right move for the Colts to trade for him.  The Colts have scored 20 or more points in five of their last seven games overall.  He is really utilizing TE Jack Toyle and star WR T.Y. Hilton, and the two-headed attack of Frank Gore and Marlon Mack is producing week in and week out in the backfield.

Pittsburgh is getting massive love from the betting public and oddsmakers now after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall.  The wins over Kansas City and Cincinnati were impressive, but the 20-15 win in Detroit was very fortunate.  The Lions amassed 488 total yards on their defense, but went 0-for-5 scoring touchdowns in the red zone.  It was the third-highest yardage total in NFL history without scoring a touchdown.

Sure, the Steelers are coming off their bye week, which is usually worth a couple points to the spread.  But bye weeks can come at bad times for teams.  And I think that's the case with the Steelers here.  They were playing well and had a ton of momentum.  Now they've been feeling fat and happy for two weeks straight, and don't be surprised if they come out sluggish.  Plus, the Steelers are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games coming off a bye, so Mike Tomlin clearly hasn't been pushing the right buttons.

Indianapolis is a perfect 8-0 ATS after having lost three of its previous four games over the past three seasons.  Pittsburgh is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 road games after covering the spread in four of its last five games coming in.  Chuck Pagano is 8-1 ATS in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more yards per attempt as the coach of Indianapolis.  The Steelers are 8-24-1 ATS in their last 33 road games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Colts are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 November games.  Indianapolis is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the Colts Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Minnesota Vikings -1

Let's just start with my favorite trend backing the Minnesota Vikings in this game.  Teams coming back from London off a bye are 11-0-1 ATS since 2015.  The two teams that fit that profile last week were the Rams and Cardinals.  The Rams rolled the Giants 51-17, while the Cardinals made easy work of the 49ers 20-10, both on the road.

Now we're getting to back a great Minnesota Vikings team that is one of the best squads in the NFC as only 1-point favorites against the Washington Redskins in this spot.  The Vikings have gone 6-2 this season.  Their two losses came 9-26 in Pittsburgh in Case Keenum's first start, and 7-14 at home to Detroit in a game they should have won by lost the turnover battle 3-0.  The Vikings have been rolling since.

Indeed, they are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS since.  They beat the Bears 20-17 on the road, came back home and clocked Green Bay 23-10 as 3-point dogs, thumped Baltimore 24-16 as 5-point home favorites, and won 33-16 in London over Cleveland as 11-point favorites.

This isn't a fluky 6-2 start, either.  The Vikings have outgained seven of their eight opponents this season.  They are averaging 358 yards per game offensively and giving up only 282 yards per game defensively with one of the top stop units in the NFL.  They are outgaining teams by 76 yards per game, which is one of the best yardage differentials in the NFL.

The Redskins are in a tough spot here.  They had to travel all the way out West to face the Seahawks last week, and actually pulled off the 17-14 upset as 8-point dogs.  Now they had to travel clear back East.  And that win was about as fluky as you'll ever see.  The Redskins only managed 244 total yards while giving up 437, getting outgained by 193 yards by the Seahawks.  Seattle kicker Blair Walsh went 0-3 on field goals, hooking all three to the left.

A big reason I was on Seattle last week was because Washington's injury report was massive.  The Redskins were without four starters on the offensive line, several starters in their defensive front 7, plus leading receiver Jamison Crowder.  Surely, the Redskins will get back a few players this week, but the fact of the matter is that their injury report couldn't be much worse right now.  They aren't going to be able to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat against an elite team like the Vikings this week.  And Minnesota's nasty defensive line will dominate that banged-up Washington offensive line, which will be the difference in this game.

Minnesota is 11-2 ATS off two or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons.  The Vikings are 36-15 ATS in their last 51 games overall.  Minnesota is 23-8 ATS in its last 31 games following an ATS win.  Essentially, the Vikings have been massively underrated ever since Mike Zimmer took over.  The Redskins are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.  Bet the Vikings Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland Browns +13

Let's just start with my favorite trend backing the Minnesota Vikings in this game.  Teams coming back from London off a bye are 11-0-1 ATS since 2015.  The two teams that fit that profile last week were the Rams and Cardinals.  The Rams rolled the Giants 51-17, while the Cardinals made easy work of the 49ers 20-10, both on the road.

Another trend that is an eye-opener and makes sense backs the Browns this week.  Teams who are 0-5 or worse and playing with 10 or more days' rest are 18-3 ATS in their last 21 tries.  Winless teams are almost always undervalued, and this just shows how winless teams off extra rest have been such a good bet through the years.

While the Browns are off their bye, the Detroit Lions will be working on a short week after beating the Packers 30-17 on the road on Monday Night Football.  It was a huge win for them as they had lost 24 of their previous 25 meetings in Green Bay.  They exorcised their demons with that win, and now it would only be human nature for them to suffer an emotional letdown the next week.  That's especially the case with the 0-8 Cleveland Browns coming to town.

It's worth noting that the Lions were only 9-point favorites prior to their game against Green Bay last week, and now they're 13-point favorites.  That just goes to show you how the betting public overreacts from a win one week to the next.  We're basically getting an extra 4 points of value now from the look-ahead line.

We saw last year that the Browns did not quit down the stretch.  They were fighting tooth and nail to try and win games, and I think that will be the case again this season.  They have more talent this season and this is still a very young roster, and young teams really benefit from bye weeks.  I expect the best effort of the season from the Browns this week.

Cleveland is 0-4 in games decided by 3 points or less this year, so they have been competitive in at least half of their games.  And most of their losses have been misleading.  The Browns have actually outgained four of their eight opponents, and they have only been outgained by 100 yards or more one time all season.  They are only getting outgained by 12.3 yards per game on the season.  They have an underrated defense that is giving up just 313 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play this year, ranking 9th in total defense and 8th in yards per play defense.

Yards per play average is one of the best stats you can use to handicap how good an NFL team is.  Well, Detroit doesn't look very good in either department.  The Lions rank 20th in the NFL in offensive yards per play (5.1) and 25th in defensive yards per play (5.6).  They are gettng outgained by 0.5 yards per play on the season.  That's not the type of team that should be laying 13 points to anyone, especially a team like the Browns off their bye week.  The Browns are getting outgained by 0.2 yards per play for comparison's sake.

Detroit is 28-51 ATS in its last 79 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  The Lions are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following a double-digit road win.  Plays on road teams (CLEVELAND) - after 7 or more consecutive losses, in November games are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS since 1983.  The value on the winless Browns is simply too good to pass up this week in this situation.  Take the Browns Sunday.

20* Seahawks/Cardinals NFC West ANNIHILATOR on Arizona +6.5

This is the 'game of the year' for the Arizona Cardinals.  Sitting at 4-4 on the season, they trail the 5-3 Seattle Seahawks and the 6-2 Los Angeles Rams within their own division.  So if they want any shot of making the playoffs, they have to win this game Thursday night.  That's why I'm expecting a big effort from them here.

I also like the fact that the Cardinals are the fresher team.  They had their bye two weeks ago, then didn't need to exert much effort to dismantle the San Francisco 49ers 20-10.  And playing on a short week in these Thursday night games is a big advantage for home teams.  They had the shorter trip from Santa Clara to Arizona, while Seattle is going to have the much further flight.

The Cardinals are also the healthier team.  Yes, they had two key injuries to David Johnson and Carson Palmer, but aside from those they are relatively healthy.  And the Palmer loss clearly isn't as big as most think.  They weren't playing all that great offensively with him before he got hurt, and Drew Stanton is a Bruce Arians favorite who is one of the better backups in the NFL.  And Adrian Peterson has shown he has plenty left in the tank, rushing for over 100 yards in two of his last three games, including 159 against the 49ers last week.

Conversely, Seattle's injury report looks awful.  Both Earl Thomas and Jeremy Lane were missing in the secondary last week, and the Redskins went 70 yards for the game-winning drive in a 17-14 upset victory over the Seahawks in the closing seconds last week.  Other key defenders missing include Sheldon Richardson, DJ Alexander, Marcus Smith and Cliff Avril.  And that was an awful loss to the Redskins considering they were missing four starters on the offensive line and several other key players elsewhere.

Offensively, the Seahawks could be without WR Tyler Lockett, who injured his shoulder.  They also have key injuries in the backfield with Eddy Lacy and C.J. Prosise unlikely to be available.  Russell Wilson is the team's leading rusher at 34 yards per game this season.  And their offensive line played terrible against a banged-up Washington defense as Wilson was running for his life the entire game.  They only managed 14 points on that soft Washington defense, and have been held to 16 or fewer in four of their eight games this year.

Arizona had had Seattle's number the past two seasons.  The Cardinals are 2-1-1 straight up in the last four meetings.  Arizona won 34-31 in Seattle as 9-point dogs last year.  That made up for their 6-6 tie at home in which they dominated the Seahawks but could only get a tie.  The Cardinals outgained the Seahawks 443 to 257 in that tie game.

Arizona is 31-14 ATS in its last 45 home games vs. good passing teams who average 235 or more passing yards per game.  Bruce Arians is 10-2 ATS as a home dog of 7 points or less in all games he has coached.  The Seahawks are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet the Cardinals Thursday.

20* Lions/Packers NFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Green Bay +3

The Green Bay Packers are in a big spot here needing a win to keep up with the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC North.  And I simply trust them to get the job done here as home underdogs more than the Detroit Lions, who shouldn't be laying points on the road.

The spot couldn't be better for the Packers, either.  They had their bye last week so have had basically 15 days since their last game.  That extra time has allowed Mike McCarthy to install an offense that is more tailored to QB Brett Hundley's skill set.  Hundley wasn't very effective in the rain in his first start against the Saints two weeks ago, but he will fare much better with this extra prep time against the Lions this time around.

The Aaron Rodgers injury wasn't the only major one in Green Bay.  They have been dealing with offensive line injuries all season.  So the bye actually helps that aspect as well as the Packers are expected to expected to have their starting five intact for the first time all season.  The Packers plan to use a run-first game plan behind this O-Line and the emergence of rookie first-round pick Aaron Jones, who has rushed for 346 yards on 62 attempts while averaging 5.6 yards per carry.  The linemen couldn't be more excited.

“I think we have a lot of confidence in what we bring to the table. It’s a matter of one, being healthy enough to do it, and two, going out there and showing it,” David Bakhtiari said as the Packers returned to work earlier this week. “The nice thing (is), we’re going to have some fun.

“Not having ‘12’ is terrible. But, I mean, everybody knows that you’re not going to be throwing as much. So it’s kind of a chance for us to pin our ears back and attack. At the end of the day, you have ‘12’ out there, you’re going to want to put the ball in the hands of the best player in the league as much as you can. Here, (the thought is), ‘Take a little bit off of Brett.’ That’d be nice.”

McCarthy acknowledged that having the line together for the first time; they've started seven different variations in seven games; will factor into his game plan.  “It’ll be great to have those five guys. We’ve talked about this time and time again that the best offensive lines are the ones that line up and practice and play together week in and week out.”

The Lions actually trailed in the 4th quarter in 16 of their 17 games last season, including playoffs.  They were a fraudulent playoff team, and they are fraudulent again this year.  They are 3-4 and are lucky to have that record.  Reality has set in after a 3-1 start, and they've gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  The Lions rank 22nd in offensive yards per play (4.9) and 22nd in defensive yards per play (5.6), getting outgained by 0.7 yards per play on the season.  That's not the sign of a good team, and it's one of the worst yards per play differentials in the NFL, which is one of the most important stats in determining how good a team is.

Finally, Detroit never wins at Lambeau Field.  The Packers are 24-1 straight up in their last 25 home meetings with the Lions.  The Lions are 9-26 ATS in their last 35 games as a road favorite, and they shouldn't be favored here.  Detroit is 0-7 ATS after gaining 300 passing yards or more last game over the past three seasons.  The Lions are 1-7 ATS in their last eight vs. a team with a winning record.  Matthew Stafford is now 6-50 in his career against teams with a winning record, going 1-4 thus far against such teams in 2017.  Bet the Packers Monday.

20* Redskins/Seahawks Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Seattle -7

Injuries have absolutely derailed the Washington Redskins' season.  And after back-to-back blowout losses to Philadelphia (24-34) and Dallas (19-33), the future looks very gloomy in Washington.  I just don't see how this team is going to field a competent team in the immediate future.  Bare with me as I list off all of their injuries.

Jay Gruden named 13 injured players during his news conference Monday, most of whom would be considered questionable this week, and 9 of which are starters.  A new one added to list Monday was receiver Jamison Crowder, who injured his hamstring and suffered a lower leg contusion.  There's a chance he won't play against Seattle, leaving Washington possibly without its mores productive receiver.

Kirk Cousins' favorite TE  Jordan Reed will likely be out Sunday against Seattle, while defensive lineman Matt Ionnidis will undergo surgery Wednesday to repair a broken bone in his hand.  They are already missing first-round pick Jonathan Allen with a Lisfranc injury.  He and Ioanidis provided a strong interior pass rush in the first five games.  They also played starting inside linebacker Mason Foster on injured reserve Saturday.

But the cluster injuries on the offensive line are the biggest concern.  Right tackle Morgan Moses is dealing with two sprained ankles, but he didn't even show up on the injury report.  And Monday's news of the 13 players came after three Redskins starting offensive linemen were inactive for Sunday's loss to the Dallas Cowboys.

"We only have seven guys that we can put inactive. That's the major issue that we have right now," Gruden said. "We have to try to get six of those guys up -- at least -- somehow."

The situation is bad enough that Gruden said if the Redskins had to practice Tuesday, he wasn't sure who would line up at left tackler.  Starter Trend Williams missed last week and may try to practice.  His backup, Ty Nsekhe, also might try to practice but he's been out since Week 2 with a core muscle injury.  And Ksekhe's backup, T.J. Clemmings, sprained an ankle Sunday and had to leave the game in the fourth quarter.

Rookie Tyler Catalina finished Sunday's game at left tackle after starting at right guard before.  Standout guard Brandon Scherff is still recovering from a sprained MCL, so Gruden needs Catalina at that position.  Gruden is hoping that Scherff can increase his activity this week.

The Redskins have only four healthy defensive linemen, so they will have to add another for at least this week.  Two of their four safeties are injured in rookie starter Montae Nickolson (shoulder) and backup Stefan McClure (hamstring).  Starting corner Bashaud Breeland (knee/groin), who was inactive against the Cowboys, is now listed as day-to-day.

"You try to prepare for that with your depth in training camp and obviously your practice squad guys, you try to get them ready," Gruden said. "But, when you get overwhelmed on the offensive line and now at tight end and safety ... it becomes a challenge. But we're going to keep fighting on and put some guys out there and get them ready to play. That's all we can do."

The Seahawks should be able to take advantage of all these injuries and really put a beat down on the Redskins.  This is a Seattle team that is rolling right now, having won four straight coming in while scoring an average of 31.8 points per game.  Russell Wilson is playing out of his mind.  He threw for 446 yards and four touchdowns against the Texans last week. And now the Seahawks traded for LT Duane Brown, one of the top tackles in the league, to help shore up their offensive line.

The Seahawks still have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL, going 11-1 straight up in their last 12 home games.  Seattle is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 home games off a a game where 60 or more points total were scored.  Washington is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games off two straight losses to division rivals.  The Seahawks are 37-18 ATS in their last 55 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Seattle is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The favorite is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take the Seahawks Sunday.

25* NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Rams -3

The Los Angeles Rams are one of the best teams in the NFL this season, yet nobody wants to give them the respect they deserve.  That's why they are consistently undervalued week after week, and I think they continue to be this week as only 3-point road favorites over the hapless New York Giants.

The Rams are not only winning, they are dominating the opposition.  Sean McVay has done wonders with the offense as the Rams rank 2nd in the NFL in scoring offense at 30.3 yards per game.  Wade Phillips has the defense playing well as they rank 11th in scoring defense at 19.7 points per game.  And they are only going to continue to get better on that side of the ball.

The offense has the best weapons it has had in recent memory with Todd Gurley, Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp and Tavon Austin.  That's a big reason Jared Goff has taken the next step this season, competing 59.9 percent of his passes for 1,719 yards with a 9-to-4 TD/INT ratio while averaging 7.7 per attempt.  And the Rams have arguably the best set of kickers in the league with punter Johnny Hekker (47.9 AVG) and PK Greg Zuerlein (21 for 22 FGs), which is an underrated aspect of this team.

The Rams are right in the thick of the NFC West race with the Seattle Seahawks and have a lot to play for coming out of their bye week.  And they lost to the Seahawks (5-2) at home on October 8th, so they do not have the tiebreaker right now.  It makes every game more important for them moving forward to get a lead on Seattle.  And that 16-10 loss to the Seahawks was about as misleading as it gets.

 They outgained Seattle by 134 yards in that game and were clearly the better team, but red zone struggles doomed them.  They really should be 6-1 right now.  They have since responded with 27-17 and 33-0 road beat downs of Jacksonville and Arizona, respectively.  The Rams have actually been at their best on the road, going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS while outscoring the opposition by 12.5 points per game.  They also won in Dallas 35-30 as 5-point underdogs.

While the Rams have been fortunate to get to their bye week without any real significant injuries, no team has been hit harder by injuries than the New York Giants.  They are without three of their top four receivers in Odell Beckham, Brandon Marshall and Dwayne Harris.  They have cluster injuries along the offensive line to Justin Pugh and Weston Richburg, and also key injuries along the defensive line and at linebacker.  

Not to mention, they have suspended top cornerback Janoris Jenkins for the second time in three weeks after he failed to return form the bye week on time.  This team is an absolute mess right now, and at 1-6 on the season, having nothing but pride to play for moving forward.  It's going to be tough for them to find motivation week in and week out to beat teams, and they'll be more concerned with just collecting a paycheck at this point.

The Giants rank 27th in the league in total offense at 296.4 yards per game, and 27th in total defense at 379.4 yards per game allowed.  They are getting outgained by a ridiculous 83.0 yards per game, which is the second-worst yardage differential in the NFL.  In their two games since losing that trio of receivers to injury in a 22-27 loss to the Chargers, they were outgained by 146 yards by the Broncos and by 248 yards by the Seahawks.  That is a sign of things to come for this undermanned, unmotivated squad.

The Rams are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye week.  The Giants are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games following a bye week.  And my favorite trend backing the Rams is that teams coming back from London who had a bye the next week are a perfect 9-0-1 ATS since 2015 coming out of the bye.  We have two teams headed in opposite directions here, and it will show up on the scoreboard this weekend.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

20* Bills/Jets AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on New York +3.5

The New York Jets will be out for revenge from their 21-12 road loss to Buffalo in Week 1.  The Jets have improved by leaps and bounds since the opening couple weeks of the season.  They have been an undervalued commodity, going 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They remain undervalued as 3.5-point home dogs to the Bills Thursday.

The Jets won three games in a row over Miami, Jacksonville and Cleveland to start the streak.  Then they lost 17-24 as 9-point home dogs to the Patriots in a controversial game where they had a TD overturned and called a touchback on a a fumble through the end zone.  Then they blew a 28-14 lead and lost 31-28 to the Dolphins as 3-point road dogs.  And last week they gave the Falcons all they could handle, losing 20-25 as 6.5-point home dogs.

The Bills come in overvalued due to their 5-2 record this season.  But it may be about as fraudulent of a 5-2 start as you'll find.  The Bills have actually been outgained in six of their seven games this season.  They are getting outgained by an average of 43.6 yards per game and 0.5 yards per play on the season.  

Buffalo has been winning with smoke an mirrors thanks to having the No. 1 turnover differential in the NFL at +14.  They have only committed 3 turnovers while forcing 17.  That type of ratio is not going to last, and they'll regress to the mean in the turnover department moving forward.

The Jets are only getting outgained by 0.1 yards per play, which is the sign of an average team.  They are gaining 5.5 yards per play on offense and giving up 5.6 yards per play on defense.  Buffalo averages 5.0 yards per play on offense and gives up 5.5 per play on defense to compare.  And yards per play are more indicative of how good a team is.

Josh McCown has revived his career in New York, completing a sweet 70.5 percent of his passes for 1,840 yards with 12 touchdowns and seven interceptions while averaging 7.2 per attempt.  He should find plenty of success against a banged-up, poor Buffalo secondary that has allowed three straight 300-yard passers and an average of 341.3 yards per game during this stretch.  It has come against the likes of Andy Dalton, Jameis Winston and Derek Carr.

LeSean McCoy got 33 touches against Oakland last week and won't have much left in the tank working on a short week here with this Thursday night game.  McCoy has 38 receptions this season, 18 more than second-place Charles Clay, who is out with an injury.  That leaves Jordan Matthews as the next-best receiver for this team with 15 receptions.  McCoy is clearly getting run into the ground.

The Jets are 19-6 ATS in their last 25 home games off a home loss.  Buffalo is 9-22 ATS in its last 31 after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in two straight games.  The Bills are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Jets are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  New York is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games overall.  The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Take the Jets Thursday.

20* Broncos/Chiefs ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Kansas City -7

The Kansas City Chiefs are in a great spot here.  They are coming off two straight losses and will be fired up to get back in the win column at home.  And they are coming off a Thursday game against the Raiders, giving them extra rest time and preparation to get ready for the Denver Broncos.  That mini-bye week has been pure gold in the NFL.  Teams coming off a Thursday game have gone 9-3 ATS this season.

While the Chiefs had a chance to beat both the Steelers and Raiders in their last two games, the Broncos haven't even come close to winning their last two.  They lost 10-23 at home to the Giants despite being 13.5-point favorites, and then proceeded to get shut out 21-0 on the road against the Chargers despite being favored in that game as well.

The Broncos have been hit hard by injuries, which is a big reason for their struggles.  Losing Emmanuel Sanders is a bigger loss than what is getting factored into these spreads.  He is the second-favorite target of Trevor Siemian and now this is a vanilla offense without him as opposing teams can just take away Demaryius Thomas, and the Broncos don't have anyone else that can beat them.

Denver is was also missing tackle Menelik Watson and his backup Donald Stephenson last week, which explains all the struggles that Siemian was having.  Both are questionable to return this week.  And Siemian was dealing with a shoulder injury of his own and didn't look good at all against the Chargers.  He got rocked time after time, and I just can't see how he isn't beat up right now.  I think he is hiding injuries and playing through them.

The Broncos have benefited from a home-heavy schedule in the early going, playing four home games compared to two road games.  And boy were their two road games awful.  They lost 16-26 to the Bills and 21-0 to the Chargers, averaging just 8.0 points and giving up 23.5 points per game, losing both by double-digits.  And now this is a big step up in class against a Chiefs offense that is doing whatever it wants to.

The Chiefs are averaging 29.6 points per game (1st), 5.2 yards per carry (1st), 8.7 yards per pass attempt (1st) and 6.5 yards per play (1st).  As you can see, they rank 1st in the NFL in all four categories.  Alex Smith and Kareem Hunt are having MVP-caliber seasons.  And while the Chiefs' numbers defensively are down this year, it's due to playing the toughest schedule of opposing offenses in the league.  I would argue that this Denver offense is the weakest they have faced yet, and it's not really even close considering the current state of the Broncos' offense with all of the injuries.

The Chiefs have owned the Broncos in their last three meetings.  They won 29-13 in their final meeting of 2015 on the road, 30-27 on th road last year, and 33-10 at home last year.  They have outscored the Broncos a combined 92-50 in those three games despite playing two on the road, or by an average of 14 points per game.  They have proven by averaging 30.7 points per game that they have no trouble moving the ball and putting up points on this supposedly vaunted Denver defense.

Andy Reid has always been a great coach to back with extra prep time as he has the best record of any NFL head coach off a bye.  Kansas City is 6-0 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards per play in its previous game over the last two seasons.  The Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  The Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  Kansas City is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. AFC West opponents.

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (DENVER) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after four consecutive games where they committed one or less turnovers are 41-13 (75.9%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Chiefs Monday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Bucs -1.5

The season is basically on the line for the Tampa Bay Bucs this week.  At 2-4, and following three straight losses, they cannot afford a loss this week at home to the Carolina Panthers.  I think we're getting the Bucs at a discount here.

After all, the Bucs have lost their last three games all by 5 points or less, so they have been unlucky in close games.  And they've been killed by injuries up to this point, but now they are as healthy as they've been since their 29-7 win over the Bears in Week 2.  Their defensive numbers haven't been pretty, but that's almost exclusively due to the injuries, not the lack of talent.

Linebackers Lavonte David and Kwon Alexander are back healthy.  Cornerback Brent Grimes and safety TJ Ward have each missed time and are healthy now.  Doug Martin is back from his 3-game suspension.  And Jameis Winston showed that his shoulder injury is an afterthought after throwing for 384 yards and three touchdowns against the Bills last week.

The Carolina Panthers' 4-1 start was a bit fraudulent as three of their wins were 50/50 games decided by 6 points or less.  Then injuries really hit this team the last few weeks as they lost at home to the Eagles, and were embarrassed 17-3 at Chicago last week.  They managed just 3 points against the Bears despite having the ball for nearly 40 minutes in that game.

The offense has been hampered by injuries on the offensive line and to Greg Olsen.  The defense was without its best player in Luke Kuechly last week, and it's still uncertain whether he will return from a concussion this week.  They could be extra cautious with him after he missed significant time with a concussion last year.  Safety Kurt Coleman is also questionable.

The weakness of the Panthers' defense is the secondary as they allow 67% completions to opposing quarterbacks.  Well, the Bucs rank 1st in the NFL in passing offense at 312 yards per game.  They are loaded with weapons in Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson, Cameron Brate and OJ Howard, a rookie out of Alabama who had two touchdown receptions last week and will play a bigger role moving forward.

Plays against road teams (CAROLINA) - off two or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS since 1983.  The Panthers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. NFC South opponents.  The favorite is 13-6 ATS in the last 19 meetings.  Roll with the Bucs Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on San Francisco 49ers +13

This is the perfect 'buy low sell high' situation with the San Francisco 49ers catching 13 points on the road to the Philadelphia Eagles.  The 49ers are coming off a 40-10 blowout home loss to the Cowboys, while the Eagles are coming off a 34-24 double-digit home win over the Washington Redskins on Monday Night Football.

The majority of bettors were on the Eagles in that game and will continue to back them after they looked so good.  But a lot went wrong for the Redskins as they had cluster injuries along the offensive line throughout the game.  And after playing on Monday, that makes this a short week for the Eagles, which is a disadvantage for them.  

It's also a huge letdown spot for the Eagles off that big win over a division rival, and with plenty of separation between themselves and the second-place Cowboys (3-3) with a 2.5-game lead in the NFC East.  Don't be surprised if they relax this week with the 0-7 49ers coming to town.

The Eagles lost two standouts to injury in that Redskins game as well.  Left tackle Jason Peters and linebacker Jordan Hicks suffered season-ending injuries in the win.  That thrusts backup tackle Halapoulivaati Vaitai and linebacker Najee Goode into big roles for the first-place Eagles.  Both have been given a shot in the past, and they have mostly been unproductive.

It was an awful spot for the 49ers last week.  They were deflated following an NFL-record five straight losses by 3 points or less and by a combined 11 points.  And they were tired off a three-game road trip that featured two overtime games.  They were playing a fresh and motivated Dallas Cowboys team that was coming off a bye and two consecutive losses.  It's easy to see how they got blown out.

Now the 49ers should have no problem getting back up off the mat to face the team with the best record in the NFL right now in the Eagles.  They will look at this as an opportunity to shock the world and pull off the upset.  And now that rookie QB CJ Beathard has six quarters of NFL action under his belt, he should only continue to get better as the season progresses.

Kyle Shanahan will come up with a game plan that will allow Beathard to be successful this week.  It will revolve around exploiting an Eagles secondary that has been underwhelming this season.  The Eagles rank 29th against the pass, allowing 272.9 passing yards per game on the season.  Because the Eagles are so poor against the pass, the back door is going to be wide open even if the 49ers do find themselves down by two touchdowns or more at some point in this game.

Plays on underdogs 10.5 or more points (SAN FRANCISCO) - after a loss by 10 or more points against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game are 29-5 (85.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last seven Sunday games following a Monday night game.  Philadelphia is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Bet the 49ers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Colts/Bengals OVER 41

This is my favorite total in the NFL this week.  I expect the Cincinnati Bengals to hang a big number on this terrible Indianapolis Colts defense in what will be their best offensive performance of the season.  I also expect the Colts to do their part to help contribute to the OVER of what is a very low total of only 41 points.

The Colts rank dead last in scoring defense, giving up 31.7 points per game.  They are 29th against the pass at 300.7 yards per game allowed.  They are 29th in total defense giving up 425.4 yards per game.  They are also 29th on a yards per play (6.4) basis.

Making matters worse for this Colts defense is the fact that they lost three starters to injury in a loss to the Jaguars last week.  That explains why they allowed 27 points and 518 total yards, including 330 passing to Blake Bortles of all quarterbacks.  LB John Simon, S Malik Hooker and CB Rashaan Melvin are all expected to miss this game for the Colts.  LB Anthony Walker is also questionable with a hamstring injury.

Jacoby Brissett has been better than expected this year.  He has handled himself well and has kept his team in games.  The Colts are only averaging 17 points per game, but that's probably all they need here Sunday to help us get the OVER, which I think they can do.  Cincinnati has a good defense, but its numbers are misleading thus far due to playing a very weak schedule of opposing offenses in the Ravens, Texans, Browns, Bills, Steelers and Packers.  They gave up 420 yards and 29 points to the Steelers last week.

The OVER is 3-0 in Indianapolis' three road games this season.  The Colts and their opponents are combining to average 59.0 points per game on the road this season.  They are giving up a stunning 42.7 points per game away from home, which is a number that is actually higher than this 41-point total alone.

Indianapolis is 8-0 OVER in road games after allowing 400 or more total yards in its previous game.  The Colts are 7-0 OVER in road games against conference opponents over the last two years.  The OVER is 9-1 in all Colts road games over the last two seasons.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Cincinnati.  These four trends combine for a 28-1 system backing the OVER.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE MONTH on Oakland Raiders +3

The Oakland Raiders are coming off a season-saving 31-30 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs last Thursday.  They thought they won the game a couple times, but had plays called back due to either reviews or penalties. But they showed tremendous composure, and Derek Carr hit the game-winner on the final play to Michael Crabtree.  Now the Raiders have an extra pep in their step heading into this road trip to Buffalo.

And the Raiders are in a situation that I love to back here.  They are coming off a Thursday game, which gives them a mini-bye week and an edge over the Bills in rest and preparation.  Teams coming off Thursday games are a very profitable 9-3 (75%) ATS in 12 games this season.  I really believe the wrong team is favored here.

Carr showed that he is fully recovered from a back injury that forced him to miss all or parts of two games, which were two of the four losses the Raiders have suffered this season.  Carr lit up a good Chiefs defense for 417 passing yards and three touchdowns without an interception.  Amari Cooper showed that he remains an elite receiver after a slow start to the season, catching 11 balls for 210 yards and two scores.

There's no question the Raiders have the better offense in this game.  The Bills have been winning with smoke and mirrors this season and are nowhere near as good as their 4-2 record would indicate.  Their offense has put up just 19.8 points, 299 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play.  Tyrod Taylor is missing his favorite target in Charles Clay, and this is mostly a one-dimension running offense.

That actually makes this a good matchup for the Raiders defensively.  Their weakness has been against the pass, but they have held their own against the run.  They are giving up just 3.9 yards per carry against teams and average 4.3 yards per carry.  And they signed NaVorro Bowman away from the 49ers, and he's an elite run defender who made his first start with the team last week.  He brings an added element of toughness and leadership in the middle of their defense.

The Bills got off to a great start defensively this season, but there have been plenty of holes in their D the last two weeks.  They gave up 388 total yards to the Bengals and 447 to the Bucs.  Their weakness has been against the pass as they allowed 323 passing yards to Andy Dalton and the Bengals and 378 to Jameis Winston and the Bucs.  That's not good news for them considering Carr, Cooper and Crabtree are heating up.  Not to mention TE Jared Cook came alive with 107 receiving yards last week.

A big reason for this drop-off in production against the pass has been the injuries in the secondary for the Bills.  Buffalo could be without two starters for Sunday's game.  Safety Jordan Poyer (knee) and cornerback E.J. Gaines (hamstring) are both considered day-to-day, but they did not practice on Wednesday.  Buffalo has allowed 350 passing yards per game since Week 5, the most in the NFL.

The Raiders have owned the Bills, going 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings, 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings, and 4-0 ATS in their last four trips to Buffalo.  Oakland is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games after failing to cover the spread in two of its previous three games coming in.  Buffalo is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games after allowing 75 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games.  Take the Raiders Sunday.

25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Falcons -4

This is definitely the type of 'buy low sell high' situation that I love in the NFL.  The Atlanta Falcons have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games, so the betting public wants nothing to do with them right now.  Meanwhile, the New York Jets have gone 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall, so they are starting to actually attract attention from the betting public.

We'll buy low on the Falcons knowing that this is the type of 'circle the wagons' game that they'll get up for.  They still have a great shot to win their division, and they are better than their 3-3 record would suggest.  Their offense isn't broken contrary to popular belief, and their defense is better than it gets credit for.

In fact, the Falcons rank 2nd in the NFL in offensive yards per play (6.2), which is the most important stat when determining how good an offense is.  And the defense ranks 12th in the NFL giving up 5.1 yards per play, so the Falcons are outgaining teams by 1.1 yards per play.  That's the sign of an elite team, not a mediocre 3-3 one.

While the Falcons are outgaining opponents by 46 yards per game, the Jets are actually getting outgained by 46 yards per game.  The Jets have done a good job of covering some inflated numbers in the early going, but now that the numbers are back to where they should be, this team will be fade material starting this week.

Let's just compare some previous Jets' lines to see the type of line value we are getting here.  The Jets were 7-point road dogs to Buffalo, 14-point road dogs to the Raiders, 5.5-point home dogs to the Dolphins, 4-point home dogs to the Jags, and 9-point home dogs to the Patriots.  

Now they are only 4-point home dogs to the Falcons, and I still believe the Falcons are a Top 5 team in the NFL, and potentially top 2.  It will be the second-toughest opponent the Jets have faced all season, just behind the Patriots, who they lost to by a touchdown at home.

The Jets are in a bad state of mind right now.  They came so close to beating the Patriots a couple weeks ago, falling just a touchdown short.  Then they blew a 28-14 fourth quarter lead against the Dolphins last week, losing 28-31.  They are feeling deflated right now and won't be able to get back up off the mat in time to face this hungry Falcons outfit.

Atlanta is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games after a road blowout loss by 14 points or more.  The Falcons are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing 6 or more yards per play in their previous game.  Atlanta is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 road games.  The Falcons are 37-13-1 ATS in their last 51 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.  Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a losing record.  The Jets are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 8.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

20* Dolphins/Ravens NFL Thursday No-Brainer on Miami +3.5

The Miami Dolphins have done a great job of getting to 4-2 this season despite the ineptitude of Jay Cutler.  But because the Dolphins gave Cutler all they money, they figured they had to stick with him.  A blessing in disguise happened last week.

Cutler was knocked out of the game against the Jets with a rib injury.  Matt Moore, who should have been starting for this team all along, promptly led the Dolphins back from a 28-14 deficit in the fourth quarter to win 31-28.  Moore completed 13 of 21 passes for 188 yards with two touchdowns and an interception.

Now Moore will get the start this Thursday against the Ravens, and I obviously believe it's an upgrade from Cutler.  This offense just has too many weapons to be held back for much longer, and I've have to say scoring 17 points in the fourth quarter last week against a good Jets defense will be a sign of things to come for this team with Moore at the helm.

But the biggest reason the Dolphins are 4-2 right now is because they have one of the most underrated defenses in the NFL.  They are allowing just 18.7 points, 308 yards per game and 5.5 per play against opponents that normally average 21.9 points, 341 yards per game and 5.8 per play.

The Ravens are a mess and should not be favored in this game.  They have so many injuries throughout the lineup that I'm not going to even take the time to mention them all.  Let's just say this, their have been hit harder by injuries than any other team in the NFL.

The Ravens have gone 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games.  They lost 44-7 to Jacksonville in London, 9-26 to Pittsburgh at home, 24-27 to Chicago at home and 16-24 to Minnesota on the road.  Their only win came against EJ Manuel and the Raiders.  And their last two games against Chicago and Minnesota were misleading.  They got two special teams touchdowns against the Bears and still lost, and they scored a meaningless TD on the final play of the game to turn a 15-point loss into an 8-point loss at Minnesota.

The Ravens still have a respectable defense that is giving up 21.1 points and 335 yards per game against teams that average 19.8 points and 324 yards per game.  But their offense is atrocious, averaging just 18.6 points, 278 yards per game and 4.5 per play.  And that point total would be a lot less if not for all of their defensive and special teams TDs this year.  Joe Flacco is broken, and is missing a handful of weapons due to injury.  The offensive line has been a disaster since losing Marshall Yanda as well.

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BALTIMORE) - with a poor offense - averaging 285 or less total yards/game are 37-16 (69.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Plays on road teams (MIAMI) - off one or more straight overs, poor offensive team - scoring 17 or less points/game are 66-27 (71%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

Baltimore is 1-8 ATS after going over the total in its previous game over the last two seasons.  The Ravens are 5-15-2 ATS in their last 22 games following a straight up loss.  The underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The Ravens need the game more, but they aren't equipped to get a win given their injury situation.  The Dolphins are far and away the better team right now.  Bet the Dolphins Thursday.

20* Redskins/Eagles ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Philadelphia -4.5

I tried to look for reasons to back the Redskins in this game.  I usually like backing teams playing with division revenge; a team that lost their first meeting of the season with a division opponent.  But that's the only reason I can come up with for the Redskins.  Every other factor points to the Eagles Monday night.

And I think what trumps the division revenge here is that fact that the Eagles want the game just as badly due to their struggles against the Redskins over the last few seasons.  The Eagles had lost five straight to the Redskins before winning 30-17 in Washington in Week 1 this week.  And what better way for them to get their revenge than by sweeping Washington here and burying them in the division standings.

I just think that the general public doesn't want to believe that the Eagles are the best team in the NFL.  But here we are and the Eagles have the best record in the league at 5-1.  And absolutely nothing has been fluky about their record.  They have handled their business and their only loss came to arguably the next-best team in the Kansas City Chiefs 27-20 on the road.

Carson Wentz has this offense playing at a high level, averaging 27.5 points per game and 5.9 yards per play. The defense has been very good as well in limiting opponents to 20.3 points per game.  They have one of the best front sevens in the NFL, giving up only 66 rushing yards per game while applying consistent pressure to opposing quarterbacks.

While the Eagles are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL in the injury department, the same cannot be said for the Redskins.  The Eagles are expected to get tackle Lane Johnson back from a one-game absence because they played last Thursday and have had extra time to get ready for the Redskins.  And Wentz's success has almost exclusively been tied to whether or not Johnson is in the lineup over the past few seasons.  RB Wendell Smallwood is also back in the lineup this week and adds a nice dimension to the offense with his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield.

Wentz should have his way with a banged-up Washington defense that allowed 24 points to CJ Beathard and the 49ers last week.  The Redskins were fortunate to escape with a 26-24 victory as 11-point favorites.  Now the Redskins are going to be without CB Josh Norman.  Their second-best CB Bashaud Breeland is questionable with a knee injury.  Starting S Deshazor Everett is also questionable, as is his backup Stefan McClure.  And DE Jonathan Allen has been placed on injured reserve.  So they could be without three starters in the secondary, and Allen's loss cannot be overstated.

On the Monday Night stage, the Eagles will not have a letdown here.  Their fans are going wild about this team and we won't hear the boo birds that we used to back when this was a mediocre team.  This is a real home-field advantage now with the way this team is playing.  The Redskins are 0-4 ATS in their last four Monday games.  The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. NFC opponents.  Philadelphia is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games overall.  The Eagles are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Bet the Eagles Monday.

25* AFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Cincinnati Bengals +6

This inflated line is a clear overreaction from the Steelers' 19-13 win in Kansas City last week to hand the Chiefs their first loss.  I was on the Steelers in that game because I thought the Chiefs were being overvalued, but now this is a role reversal and the Steelers are getting too much respect from oddsmakers.  It's a letdown spot for them off such a big win.

Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Bengals have been waiting in the wings on their bye week getting ready to beat their most hated rivals in the Steelers.  And they are off two consecutive wins that has gotten them back into the playoff picture.  They are looking at this as their biggest game of the season considering the Steelers lead the AFC North at 4-2, and a loss here would almost surely ruin the Bengals' chances of making the playoffs.  So we're going to get a huge effort from Cincinnati here.

I've been on the Bengals in their last two games and I'll ride them for a third straight for many of the same reasons.  Andy Dalton has looked like a completely different quarterback with Bill Lazor calling the plays the last three games.   Dalton has completed 68-of-93 (73.1%) passes for 826 yards with a 7-to-2 TD/INT ratio in his last three games.  One of those picks was a drop by AJ Green.

If you dig deep into the Bengals' numbers, it's easy to see that they are much better team than their 2-3 record would indicate.  They lost on the road to the Packers in overtime, beat the Browns 31-7 on the road while outgaining them by 135 yards, then beat the Bills 20-16 in a game that was a much bigger blowout than the final score showed.  They outgained Buffalo by 167 yards.

Since getting their defensive leader Vontaze Burfict back from a 3-game suspension in Week 4, the defense has really showed what it is capable of.  The Bengals allowed just 215 total yards to the Browns and 221 to the Bengals in their two games with Burfict on the field.  The Bengals are 2nd in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 262.8 yards per game and 4.4 per play this season.  They are averaging 5.3 per play on offense, outgaining teams by 0.9 yards per play, which is the sign of an elite team.

The Steelers have also been improved defensively this season, and it's pretty much a wash there with Cincinnati, though the Bengals do have the better stats.  But this Pittsburgh offense is broken and cannot be trusted to lay this kind of number.  The Steelers are averaging just 19.7 points per game this season.  They are becoming too predictable with Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Browns getting what seems like 90% of the touches.

Cincinnati is 6-0 ATS in road games after covering the spread in three of their last four games over the past three seasons.  The Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.  The Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win.  These three trends combine for a perfect 14-0 system backing Cincinnati.  Bet the Bengals Sunday.

20* Broncos/Chargers AFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles PK

The Los Angeles Chargers have been one of the most hard-luck teams in the NFL over the last few years.  They have found ways to lose close game after close game.  They opened this season 0-4 while losing three of their first four games by 3 points or less.  To say they were due for some good luck in close games would be a massive understatement.

Lo and behold, the Chargers have won back-to-back close games with a 5-point road win over the Giants and a 1-point road win over the Raiders the past two weeks.  Now the Chargers are starting to feel good about themselves and gaining confidence.  And with the Chiefs losing two in a row, they can get right back in the thick of things within the division with another win here over the Broncos.

Now they'll be motivated for revenge against their division rivals.  The Chargers lost 21-24 in Denver in their opener after missing a game-tying field goal that would have forced overtime.  They went on to miss another field goal the next week against the Dolphins that would have won it.  That's how close this team is to being 4-2.

And while the Chargers are a team on the rise, the Broncos are going the other direction.  They just suffered an inexplicable 23-10 home loss to the Giants as 13.5-point favorites on Sunday Night Football last week.  And they suffered several key injuries during that game that contributed to the loss, and those injuries continue to hamper them this week.

Trevor Siemian injured his shoulder and had to be replaced in the game.  Siemian is expected to play this week, but we'll gladly fade any quarterback with a shoulder injury.  And he lost one of his favorite targets in Emmanuel Sanders to an ankle injury.  Sanders is out this week, and his other favorite target Demaryius Thomas is hampered with a calf injury.  Not to mention, the offensive line will be without tackle Menelik Watson, and his backup Donald Stephenson is also out.

San Diego has one of the more underrated defenses in the NFL.  Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa are animals.  The Chargers should be able to get after Siemian and take advantage of this banged up Broncos offensive line.  This is a Chargers defense that has allowed just 21.8 points and 338 yards per game this season.  They have allowed only 186 passing yards per game.  They are going to be able to stack eight in the box to stop the run because a banged-up Siemian and his limited receiving options aren't going to be able to do much through the air.  Stud corner Casey Hayward will shut down Demaryius Thomas.

Philip Rivers has some of the best weapons he has had in his career.  The Chargers have finally given Hunter Henry more playing time in favor of Antonio Gates.  Keenan Allen is a beast at receiver, and rookie first-round pick Mike Williams recently returned from injury and will only get better.  Melvin Gordon has shown that he is one of the best backs in the NFL.

The Broncos have benefited from an easy schedule.  They have played four of their first five games at home.  Their only road game resulted in a 16-26 loss to a mediocre at best Buffalo Bills team.  I know the Chargers don't have much of a home-field advantage these days, but the fans should be more welcoming now and appreciate the fact that the Chargers continue to fight and have won two straight coming in.  The home team has won four straight in this series.  Take the Chargers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago Bears +3

The Chicago Bears continue to get no respect from oddsmakers here as 3-point home dogs to the Carolina Panthers.  All the Bears have done is go 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as a home underdog.  We'll gladly take the points here in a game the Bears likely win outright over the Carolina Panthers.

The Bears have gone 3-0 ATS as home this season.  They should have beaten the Falcons outright in Week 1 if not for some drops in the closing seconds.  They did beat the Steelers 23-17 as 7-point dogs.  And they only lost 17-20 to the Vikings on a last-second field goal as 3.5-point dogs.

Mitchell Trubisky showed some moxy in going into Baltimore and leading his team to a 27-24 win over the Ravens as 5-point dogs.  And the Ravens even got two special teams touchdowns in that game, which is the only reason it went to overtime.  It helps that Trubisky has a running game to rely on and take the pressure off of him.

Indeed, Chicago ranks No. 1 in the NFC and No. 3 in the NFL with an average of 136.0 rushing yards per game.  Jordan Howard has amassed 495 rushing yards and four touchdowns in his first six games.  Tarik Cohen has been a revelation in the backfield with his running and pass-catching abilities.  And Trubisky's mobility has been a nice added dimension.

The Bears have the worst turnover differential (-8) in the NFL.  That was a big reason for their early struggles, but most of those mistakes can be attributed to Mike Glennon.  If they can take care of the football, their defense is good enough to keep them in games.  In fact, it has been one of the most underrated units in the NFL.

The Bears allowed just 303 yards per game and 5.1 per play against opponents that average 346 yards per game and 5.6 per play.  They are holding foes to 43 yards and 0.5 yards per play below their season averages.  That is the sign of an elite defense.

The Panthers have also been great defensively this season, but that was largely due to having one of the best defenders in the NFL in Luke Kuechly back and healthy.  And Kuechly suffered another concussion last week against the Eagles.  After he went out, the Panthers fell apart, losing 23-28 at home.  

Kuechly has been ruled out for this game.  The Panthers had a good run defense with him, but without the perennial leading tackler in the NFL they won't be nearly as effective stopping the run against the Bears this week.  He is worth more to the spread than the oddsmakers have adjusted for in this matchup.

The Panthers have been well below-average this season on offense.  They are only averaging 21.3 points, 323 yards per game and 5.2 per play.  That's really bad when you consider they have faced one of the easiest slates of opposing defenses who give up 22.3 points, 364 yards per game and 5.8 per play on average.  Cam Newton missed Greg Olsen, and he could also be without his top receiver in Kelvin Benjamin this week, who is questionable with a knee injury.

Chicago is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games as a home dog of 7 points or less.  The Bears are 7-0 ATS in all games where the total is 35.5 to 42 over the last two seasons.  Chicago is 7-1 ATS in its last eight home games overall.  The underdog is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series.  Chicago is flying under the radar right now and we'll continue cashing in on them while that's the case.  Roll with the Bears Sunday.

20* Chiefs/Raiders AFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on UNDER 47

There are several factors that have me backing the UNDER in this game Thursday night between the Kansas City Chiefs and Oakland Raiders.  Not the least of which is the fact that this is a division rivalry, and these teams are extremely familiar with one another.

And this head-to-head series has been very low-scoring in recent years.  Indeed, the Raiders and Chiefs have combined for 44 or fewer points in five of their six meetings over the past three seasons.  They combined for 34 and 36 points in their two meetings last year.  And they have averaged 42.0 combined points in their last six meetings and just 36.7 points in their last three.

The Raiders are struggling offensively this season.  They have scored just 10, 10, 17 and 16 points in their last four games overall.  They have combined for 47 or fewer points in five of their six games this season with their opponents as well.  The defense is holding its own, giving up 21 points per game this year.

I think this total has been inflated because of all the early high-scoring games the Chiefs played in.  But then they had a ton of injuries heading into the Steelers game last week, especially to their pass-catchers on offense.  And they proceeded to lose 13-19 for 32 combined points.  Those injuries aren't going to be healed just four days later in this Thursday night game.

The UNDER is 8-1 in Chiefs last nine vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 24-6 in Chiefs last 30 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Raiders last five vs. AFC West opponents.  The UNDER is 18-6 in the last 24 meetings in this series.  Andy Reid is a perfect 8-0 to the UNDER after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game as the coach of the Chiefs.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Colts/Titans NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UNDER 48.5

This is a key AFC South game for both the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans.  They are both 2-3 right now, and the winner will be tied with the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans for first place in the AFC South.  So there will be an extra level of intensity to this contest.

I think that favors the UNDER, along with many other factors.  These teams are obviously extremely familiar with one another since it's a division game.  And I know that previous meetings have tended to be higher scoring, but those were almost exclusively with Andrew Luck in recent years.  Luck is no longer the quarterback due to injury.

Now it's Jacoby Brissett and a sub-par Colts offense that has been dreadful on the road this season.  The Colts are scoring just 13.5 points per game, averaging 231 yards per game and 4.7 per play on the road this season.  I don't expect them to have much success moving the football and scoring points in this game either.

That's because the Colts will be up against a Titans defense that came back strong last week to give up just 16 points and 178 total yards to the Miami Dolphins.  Usually that would have been good enough to win, but the offense was held to just 10 points and 188 total yards.  That was largely due to having Matt Cassell at quarterback.

Now Marcus Mariota is expected to make his return from a hamstring injury.  I think that fact has this total inflated.  Mariota is probably coming back too early because the Titans are coming off two consecutive losses and need a win.  And there's zero chance this will be the same free-wheeling Mariota we've become accustomed to.

Instead, Mariota will be severely limited by that hamstring.  His feet are his biggest weapon, and without them this offense won't hum like it normally would.  Mariota won't be able to make plays outside the pocket like he usually does, and he certainly won't be running for many first downs to bail out the offense when plays break down.

I expect the Titans to try and get back to their bread and butter offensively, which is running the football with DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry.  That's because they've been limited to just 77.5 rushing yards per game in their last two contests, which they have lost.  Their two best running totals this season were two games in which they won.  They know their best formula for success is to run the ball, and that will be the case here Monday.  That will also keep the clock moving.

The Colts found a nice running game last week with Marlon Mack against the San Francisco 49ers.  They rushed for 159 yards on 35 attempts, with Mack accounting for 91 of those yards.  I think they'll be looking to run the football as well to try and limit Tennessee's possessions, which is their best plan of attack.  They can't afford to fall behind big early because they don't have the firepower to come back, as we've seen in their two blowout road losses.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams against the total (INDIANAPOLIS) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, versus division opponents are 71-33 (68.3%) over the last 10 seasons.  With the intensity both defenses will be bringing to the table, and with the limitations of Brissett and Mariota, the only way to look is with the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* Steelers/Chiefs AFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh +5

The Kansas City Chiefs are simply overvalued right now due to their 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS start to the season.  They are the only team that's left unbeaten both straight up and against the spread.  With that fact comes expectations from the betting public and the oddsmakers that the Chiefs simply cannot live up to moving forward.

Now the Chiefs are being asked to lay a whopping 5 points at home against a Steelers team that I'm not so sure isn't still the best team in the AFC.  The Chiefs were lucky to cover against both the Eagles and Redskins in their two home games this season.  They were outgained by the Eagles by 62 yards, and they got a fluke fumble return TD on the last play of the game to cover against the Redskins.

Now this is a very tough spot for the Chiefs.  They have played back-to-back National TV games last Monday against the Redskins and then last week against the Texans.  That game turned into a 42-34 shootout thanks to some injuries on both sides.  That game took a lot out of the Chiefs, and it really showed up in the injury department.

Receiver Chris Conley was lost to a season-ending Achilles injury.  Fellow receiver Albert Wilson suffered a leg injury and is questionable.  Tight end Travis Kelce was knocked out of the Houston game with a concussion and is questionable.  Defensively, both LB Justin Houston and LB Dee Ford, their two best pass rushers, are questionable with calf and hip injuries.

The Steelers are going to be chapping at the bit to get back on the field this week and redeem themselves from their ugly 9-30 home loss to the Jaguars last week.  Big Ten threw five interceptions, including two that were returned for touchdowns, to give the game away.  It was a clear flat spot for the Steelers off their big 26-9 win in Baltimore the previous week, and with the Chiefs on deck.

Now the Steelers will get back to work this week and come back with a much better performance.  I expect them to give the ball to Le'Veon Bell at least 30 times after he did not get enough touches against the Jaguars due to game flow.  They are much better when he gets the rock.  His two biggest workloads came in identical 26-9 wins over Baltimore and Minnesota.

What has been most impressive about the Steelers is their defense.  They are only allowing 17.8 points per game.  They rank 4th in total defense, giving up just 276 yards per game.  And they are 1st against the pass by a mile, giving up a stunning 140 passing yards per game.  Alex Smith won't keep humming along, especially with all the injuries on offense right now.

The Steelers simply have the Chiefs number.  They have gone 5-1 in the last six meetings over the past six seasons.  They won 18-16 on the road in the playoffs last year, and 43-14 at home earlier in the regular season, outgaining the Chiefs by a combined 241 yards in the process.  The Steelers have clearly figured out Andy Reid's offense, limiting the Chiefs to just 14.5 points per game in the last six meetings.

Pitt is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. poor rushing defense allowing 4.5 or more rushing yards per carry over the last three seasons.  Mike Tomlin is 16-5 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game as the coach of Pittsburgh.  The Steelers are 22-8-2 ATS in their last 32 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Roll with the Steelers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Steelers/Chiefs UNDER 46

For two teams that aren't in the same division, the Steelers and Chiefs are certainly getting used to playing each other.  They have played six times in the last six seasons, including in the playoffs last year.  The Steelers ended the Chiefs' season with an 18-16 road victory as 2.5-point favorites.

The majority of these meetings have been very low-scoring.  In fact, the UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  The Steelers and Chiefs have averaged just a combined 35 points per game in those six meetings.  That's 11 points less than this 46-point total, which shows the kind of value we are getting here with the UNDER.

I think this total has been inflated due to the Chiefs having the No. 1 scoring offense in the NFL. And the fact that they are coming off a shootout win over the Texans last week.  But the Texans lost arguably their two best defenders in J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus to injuries in the first quarter, which changed the complexion of the game.

The Chiefs came away from that game with some significant injuries of their one, which also makes me like the UNDER this week.  Receiver Chris Conley suffered a season-ending Achilles tear.  Receiver Albert Wilson is questionable with a leg injury.  Alex Smith's favorite target in Travis Kelce is questionable with a concussion that knocked him out of the Texans game.  I like the UNDER either way, but it would just be an added bonus if all three guys were out.

And now the Chiefs are up against a vastly improved Steelers defense, and their offense won't keep humming along this week.  The Steelers are only allowing 17.8 points per game.  They rank 4th in total defense, giving up just 276 yards per game.  And they are 1st against the pass by a mile, giving up a stunning 140 passing yards per game.

The Steelers have held the Chiefs to just 14.5 points per game i their last six meetings, so they clearly have Andy Reid's offense figured out.  And the Steelers haven't lived up to expectations this season offensively.  Big Ten just threw five picks, including two that were returned for touchdowns, to give the game away to Jacksonville last week.

I look for the Steelers to go to a more conservative game plan this week.  They will feed Le'Veon Bell upwards of 30 times in this game to take some pressure off of Big Ten.  That will also keep the clock moving and cut down on the turnovers.  It's a Steelers offense that is only averaging 19.8 points per game this year.  The Chiefs still have a respectable defense themselves, giving up 22.2 points per game this season.

The UNDER is 22-7 in Steelers last 29 road games.  The UNDER is 21-6 in Steelers last 27 games in October.  The UNDER is 13-2-1 in Steelers last 16 games after accumulating more than 350 yards in their previous game.  The UNDER is 39-18 in Chiefs last 57 home games.  Kansas City is 7-0 UNDER versus poor rushing defense that allow 4.5 or more yards per carry over the last three seasons.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Los Angeles Rams +3

The Los Angeles Rams are a legitimate NFL team this season.  I think they are flying under the radar right now as they could easily be 5-0 rather than 3-2.  They have nice road wins over the Cowboys and 49ers, as well as a blowout home win over the Colts.

The Rams did lose 20-27 at home to the Redskins in Week 2, but the Redskins are clearly better than most thought they would be.  Many are writing off the Rams because of their 16-10 loss to the Seahawks last week, but if they played that game 10 times, the Rams would have won nine of them when you dig deeper into the stats.

The Rams outgained the Seahawks by 134 yards.  They drove the ball inside the Seattle red zone five times, and only scored 3 points on those five trips.  They missed a short field goal, Todd Gurley fumbled through the end zone for a touchback, and Cooper Kupp dropped a would-be game-winning touchdown on the final drive.  The Rams were the better team, which just shows how far they've come.

The Jaguars are in the ultimate letdown spot here.  They are coming off a signature 30-9 road win at Pittsburgh in which they intercepted Big Bet five times, returning two of those for touchdowns.  Blake Bortles only attempted one pass in the second half and finished 8-of-14 passing for 95 yards with an interception in the win.  So it was nothing he did.

This Jaguars offense is too one-dimensional, depending basically solely on Leonard Fourtette to run the ball.  We saw what happened when the Jaguars fell behind in their only home game this season in Week 2 against the Titans.  Bortles had to try to throw them back in it, and he couldn't do it in a 16-37 loss.

Both teams have elite defenses, but the difference in this game is the offenses.  The Rams are far from one-dimensional as Sean McVay has brought his offense to this team, and they have taken off.  The Rams are averaging 30.4 points per game, 382 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play.  They have one of the best offenses in the entire NFL this season.

This line indicates that the line should be about a pick 'em on a neutral field.  And I have no doubt the Rams are the better team and would unload on them as a favorite on a neutral.  Giving the Jaguars 2.5 points for home-field advantage is too much because they have actually been much better on the road than at home in recent years.  And the Jaguars have been terrible as a favorite, but great as a dog.

The Jaguars are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games.  Jacksonville is 1-5 ATS in its last six following a straight up win of more than 14 points.  They just can't seem to be able to put together two good games in a row.  And this is a clear 'buy low' on the Rams and 'sell high' on the Jags opportunity.  The Rams are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

Plays on underdogs or pick (LA RAMS) - off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 38-14 (73.1%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Browns +10

The Houston Texans are the flavor of the month right now because of Deshaun Watson becoming the first rookie quarterback in NFL history to account for five touchdowns in back-to-back weeks.  And now the Texans are being asked to lay double-digits, something they certainly aren't used to doing at any point in franchise history.

The problem is that the injuries to the Texans defense are getting overlooked.  They lost arguably their two best defenders in J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus in the first quarter against the Chiefs last week, and proceeded to give up a whopping 42 points.  Fellow starters Brian Cushing and Kevin Johnson are also out.

The Browns are much better than their 0-5 record would indicate.  They are actually outgaining opponents by 16 yards per game this season.  They are only getting outgained by 0.2 yards per play.  The Texans are also getting outgained by 0.2 yards per play this season, so by those numbers alone, these are closer to even teams than this line would suggest.

The problem for the Browns has been turnovers, and mostly from Deshon Kizer.  They have committed a whopping 12 turnovers already and are -6 in turnover margin.  Well, they have decided to move on from Kizer to Kevin Hogan, who has taken much better care of the football and understands the importance of it dating back to his time at Stanford, where he had similar numbers to Andrew Luck.

Last week against the Jets, the Browns lost 14-17 but the stats show they should have won by a big margin.  The Browns outgained the Jets by a whopping 207 yards in that game.  Hogan was on point, completing 16-of-19 passes for 194 yards and two touchdowns with one interception after replacing Kizer.  He nearly led them back to a victory from a 17-7 deficit.  I certainly think this team offense is better with Hogan, if for nothing else the fact that he values the football.

The Browns have actually been very good defensively this season.  They are giving up just 305 total yards per game.  They have been very good against the run, allowing just 77 rushing yards per game and 2.9 per carry.  That's key here because they're up against a Texans team that likes to run the ball, averaging 31 attempts for 141 yards per game and 4.5 per carry.

Winless teams who are 0-5 or worse are 50-18 ATS when facing an opponent in non-division road games.  That angle improves to 39-7 ATS when the 0-5 team has a spread winning percentage of 33% or worse.  The Browns get two of their best players back from injury this week in LB Jamie Collins and WR Kenny Britt as well.    I like Cleveland much better in this role where it is getting double-digit points, rather than the role it has been in the last three weeks where it basically had to win outright to cover.  Take the Browns Sunday.

25* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Saints -3.5

I grabbed the New Orleans Saints at -3.5 on Monday not only because I loved them at that price, but also because I figured that the line would move quickly in their favor.  And it has as it's up to -4.5 and -5 as of this writing.  I still like them at anything under a touchdown, but obviously the -3.5 line is a stronger play. It benefits you to get a subscription so you can get in on these lines as soon as I release them, rather than buying the play the day of the game and getting worse lines.

The reason to love the Saints is the spot.  They are coming off their bye week, so they have had two full weeks to get ready for the Lions.  And they needed it after playing their last game in London.  Teams playing in London get to choose whether or not they want the bye the next week, and the Saints chose wisely.

I've used the Saints as a 25* play in each of their last two games, and cashed them both easily.  I felt like they were way undervalued after two brutal games to open the season at Minnesota and at home against New England.  And that proved to be the case as they went into Carolina and won 34-13 as 5-point dogs, and won 20-0 in London over the Dolphins as 4-point favorites, covering the spread by a combined 42 points.

Now the Saints opened as -3 and -3.5 favorites at home against the Lions this week, which continues to show how undervalued they are.  I rank the Saints as a better team than the Lions, and when you factor in home-field advantage and the fact that they are coming off their bye week, this line should have come out at closer to -6.

It's clear that the Saints are improved defensively this season after allowing just 6.5 points and 237 yards per game in their last two contests.  And the team is getting healthy as a whole with very few significant injuries.  The Saints feel like the NFC South is for the taking, and they are playing with a sense of urgency right now knowing that Drew Brees doesn't have too many seasons left, though he continues to play at an extremely high level.

The Lions are complete frauds in my opinion.  They lead the NFL in turnover margin (+8), and they already have 11 takeaways this season.  That's not going to last.  The Saints have done an excellent job of taking care of the football this season, committing zero turnovers in their first four games.  They won't be giving it away to the Lions this week either.

The Lions have now trailed in 20 of their last 22 games dating back to the start of last season, and most of those they actually trailed in the fourth quarter.  The only exception this year was their game against the 0-5 New York Giants.  Matthew Stafford has been working miracles with this team, but now even Stafford is banged up with his status in question for Sunday.

Stafford suffered both ankle and hamstring injuries in a 27-24 home loss to the Panthers last week.  That was another game they trailed 27-10 and was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  And even if Stafford goes, he will be hobbled.  He would also be starting behind a banged-up, terrible offensive line that has allowed a whopping 12 sacks over the last two weeks combined.

On Monday, Stafford told WJR Radio in Detroit that he doesn't know if he'll play due to the the ankle/leg injuries.  And he's not the only injury concern.  Breakout WR Kenny Golladay suffered a hamstring injury and is questionable. DT Haloti Ngata has been placed on injured reserve with an elbow injury suffered last week, and LB Paul Worrilow remains out indefinitely.

And the final handicap in this game is the revenge factor.  The Saints are actually 0-3 against the Lions the last three seasons, including an embarrassing 28-13 home loss to them last year.  The Saints had won their previous four games against the Lions by an average of 21.0 points per game.  I think we see them getting back to that kind of form here and winning in blowout fashion.

Sean Payton is 15-4 ATS in home games vs. mistake-prone teams averaging 60 or more penalty yards per game as the coach of New Orleans.  Detroit is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games off a home loss by 3 points or less.  The Lions are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 road games after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games.  New Orleans is 8-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams averaging 24 or more points per game over the last three seasons.  The Saints are 6-0 ATS vs. good rushing defenses allowing 90 or fewer rushing yards per game over the last three years.

Bets against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (DETROIT) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after four consecutive games where they committed one or less turnovers are 40-13 (75.5%) ATS since 1983.  The Saints are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a bye week.  Bet the Saints Sunday.

20* Eagles/Panthers NFL Thursday Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 46.5

This is a huge game between a pair of 4-1 teams in the Philadelphia Eagles and Carolina Panthers that could ultimately have home-field advantage implications in the playoffs down the road.  I think this will be a very intense game between two of the best teams in the NFC, and I expect the defenses will have the edge in this one.

I also believe this total has been inflated due to the fact that the Panthers have gone over the total in three straight now.  But that was largely due to playing three poor defenses in the Saints, Patriots and Lions, but now they're up against a vastly underrated Eagles defense.  And the Panthers simply aren't a very good offensive team.

The Panthers only average 21.0 points, 327 yards per game and 5.5 per play against opponents that allow 368 yards per game and 6.0 per play.  The injuries for the Panthers on offense are going to hold them back.  They are without Cam Newton's favorite weapon in Greg Olsen, and C Ryan Kalil, WR Devin Funchess and RB Jonathan Stewart are all questionable for this game.

The biggest reason for Carolina's turnaround this season has been its elite defense.  The Panthers are only allowing 18.8 points per game, 274 yards per game and 5.1 per play.  They have shown tremendous improvement against the pass, giving up just 194 passing yards per game and 5.7 yards per attempt against teams that average 237 yards per game and 6.7 per attempt.

While Carson Wentz has turned the corner and is playing much better this season, a big reason for the Eagles' turnaround has been a defense that only gives up 19.8 points per game.  And now they get their best defensive player in DT Fletcher Cox back from injury this week.  The run defense has been particularly good, allowing just 63 rushing yards per game.  That will be key against a Panthers team that loves to run the football, averaging 29 rushing attempts per game compared to 30 pass attempts, a rare 50/50 split in today's NFL.

Wentz will face his stiffest test yet here against this Panthers defense.  The Eagles have been humming along offensively, but they lost their best linemen in RT Lane Johnson due to injury, and Wentz was not nearly as good without him last year.  In fact, since the start of the 2016 season, the Eagles are 9-2 when Johnson plays, and 2-8 when he does not.  Wentz completes 64.8% of his passes, averaging 7 YPA and a 10:2 TD/INT ratio with him, and 61.2%, 5.9 YPA and 6:12 TD/INT ratio without him.

The Eagles are also running the ball more this season, averaging 31 rushing attempts per game compared to 35 passing.  And the Panthers are great against the run too, giving up 80 rushing yards per game.  I think both offenses are going to be in more 3rd-and-long situations than they're used to because of both defenses ability to stop the run.

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CAROLINA) - off a upset win as an underdog, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 59-24 (71.1%) since 1983.  

Carolina is 9-1 UNDER in its last 10 home games after allowing 50 or fewer rushing yards last game.  The Panthers are 71-46 UNDER in their last 117 games as a home favorite.  The UNDER is 39-17 in Eagles last 56 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Vikings/Bears ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Chicago +3

The Chicago Bears have decided to start their No. 2 overall pick in Mitchell Trubisky against the Minnesota Vikings this week.  It was perfect timing because the Bears played last Thursday, giving Trubisky a full week and a half of prep time to get ready for the Vikings on Monday.

Teams coming off a Thursday game are a perfect 6-0 ATS this season.  The Chiefs & Patriots both covered in Week 2, the Texans & Bengals both covered in Week 3, and the Rams and 49ers both covered in Week 4.  That extra rest is huge in the NFL, and I look for a big performance from the Bears Monday thanks to it.

The Bears have played two monster home games this season and really should be 2-0.  If not for a couple drops at the end, they would have beaten the Falcons in Week 1.  Instead they lost 17-23 as 6.5-point dogs.  Then they won outright as 7-point dogs in a 23-17 overtime victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 3.  The Falcons and Steelers are two of the best teams in the NFL.

Mike Glennon has killed the Bears with all of his turnovers.  The Bears have given the ball away a league-most 10 times and are -7 in turnover differential this season.  That's why the switch to Trubisky was warranted, and he lit it up in the preseason and clearly has the higher upside.

The Bears lost 14-35 at Green Bay last Thursday, but that final was misleading and has them undervalued here.  They gave the game away with four turnovers and many short fields for the Packers.  Their defense played well, limiting the Packers to just 260 total yards.  This is an underrated Bears stop unit that ranks No. 8 in the NFL in total defense.

The Vikings lost their best playmaker in Dalvin Cook to a season-ending ACL injury last week.  He had rushed for 354 yards in three-plus games.  Now it's Latavius Murray and his bum ankle that's supposed to replace him.  Well, Murray will be making his season debut and clearly isn't 100%.

"To be honest, I think I'm still getting to that point," said Murray, 27, who spent the previous three seasons with the Oakland Raiders. "It's not going to quite feel the same for awhile. I knew that dealing with my previous ankle procedure. For me, it's being well enough to be out there and being able to help the team be successful. I feel good enough to be out there, and I'm confident in myself that I can play at a high level."

The Vikings have been without Sam Bradford for the past three games because of a knee injury, and he is still questionable to play Monday night.  Even if he does go, he won't be 100% and will be nursing that knee injury.  And if backup Case Keenum starts again it will be a bonus for us.  But either way, the Vikings shouldn't be favored by a field goal on the road here.

That's especially the case when you consider the Bears are 8-1 straight up in their last nine home meetings with the Vikings.  They won 20-10 at home last season as 5.5-point dogs on Monday Night Football.  The Vikings are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 meetings in Chicago.  The home team is 21-8 ATS in the last 29 meetings.

Minnesota is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 Monday Night games.  The Vikings are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.  The Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  Chicago is 8-1 ATS versus good offensive teams who average 5.65 or more yards per play over the last three seasons.  The Bears are 6-0 ATS off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more over the last three seasons.  Chicago is 7-0 ATS in all games where the total is 35.5 to 42 over the last three years.  These last three trends combine for a 21-1 system backing Chicago.  Bet the Bears Monday.

15* Packers/Cowboys NFC Sunday No-Brainer on Dallas -2

The Dallas Cowboys are going to be pissed off from their home loss to the Rams last week.  That was a tough spot for them as they were coming off a Monday night game, while the Rams were coming off a Thursday game.  I was on the Rams last week because of the spot.

This week I'm hopping on the motivated Cowboys, who will be out for revenge after losing to the Packers 31-34 at home in the playoffs last year.  That came after they had beaten the Packers 30-16 in the regular season on the road.  The Cowboys outgained the Packers in both meetings and were clearly the better team.  I think that's the case again in 2017.

The Packers come in overvalued off their 35-14 win over the Bears last week.  But that score couldn't have been more misleading.  The Bears gave the game away by committing four turnovers.  They actually held the Packers to just 260 total yards in that game.  And the week before, the Packers never led the Bengals until overtime in a 27-24 victory as 7-point home favorites.

This is a Packers offense that is in a world of hurt right no due to all the injuries.  They have been playing without their two starting tackles in David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga, and it's questionable whether they'll return this week.  And two key playmakers in RB Ty Montgomery and WR Davante Adams got hurt against Chicago, and both are expected to miss this game.

The Cowboys have been fortunate in the health department.  They have no key injuries on offense.  All of their injuries have been on defense, and for the most part they are healthy.  Sean Lee missed last week with a hamstring injury and there's a chance he could return this week.  Anthony Hitchens, Chidobe Awuzie and Nolan Carroll are all questionable as well.  But they get back DL David Irving from suspension, and he's an impact player up front.

The Packers are actually below .500 on the road since 2011.  They are 3-13 on the road against playoff teams since 2011.  And the Cowboys are likely to be a playoff team this season.  The Packers were overmatched in their only road game this season, losing 23-34 at Atlanta.  That was a 34-10 game entering the fourth quarter before Green Bay tacked on two touchdowns in garbage time.

Green Bay has been vulnerable against the run this season, giving up 111 rushing yards per game.  And they haven't seen a ground attack as good as the Cowboys.  Dallas is averaging 4.7 yards per carry this season behind one of the best offensive lines in the league.  They will win the battle in the trenches on both sides of the football in this one, which will be the key to their victory.

Dallas is 6-0 ATS after gaining 175 or more rushing yards in their previous game over the past two seasons. Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GREEN BAY) - off two or more consecutive overs, a good offensive team (23-27 PPG) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG) are 36-10 (78.3%) ATS since 1983.  Roll with the Cowboys Sunday.

15* Seahawks/Rams NFC West ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -1

The Los Angeles Rams still aren't getting the respect they deserve from oddsmakers and the betting public.  Most believe that their 3-1 start is a fluke, but I'm a buyer on this team, and I certainly think they are better than the Seahawks right now.  That's why we'll pull the trigger on the Rams as only 1-point favorites against the Seahawks here.

The Rams lead the NFL in scoring offense, averaging 35.5 points per game and 6.5 yards per play on the season.  Jared Goff is averaging a whopping 9 yards per pass attempt while completing 67.5% of his passes.  Sean McVay is working wonders with Goff right now as one of the best offensive minds in the game.

The Seahawks keep getting treated like they are Super Bowl contenders from the betting public and oddsmakers.  As a result, they've gone just 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS, consistently being overvalued this year.  And they looked terrible for a half against the Colts, actually trailing 10-15 going into halftime.  I don't think one good half against an awful Colts team changes my opinion on this team as they ended up cruising to a 46-18 victory.

The Rams are extremely healthy right now, which is about the only thing that has been lucky with this team thus far.  The same cannot be said for the Seahawks.  Seattle had mass injuries in the win over the Colts.  They lost another starting lineman in Rees Odhiambo.  CB Jeremy Lane and DE Cliff Avril were both knocked out, as was RB Chris Carson.  Both Carson and Avril will be out for this game, while Lane, Odhiambo and CB Neiko Thorpe are all questionable for this contest.

The Rams have had the Seahawks' number in recent meetings.  They have gone 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings.  The key to their success has been their dominant defensive line up against a suspect Seattle offensive line.  It will be more of the same here as the Rams will win the battle in the trenches, and it will take a Russell Wilson miracle to overcome all of their offensive line woes.  He hasn't been able to in recent meetings with Aaron Donald and the Rams.

Seattle is 0-6 ATS in games played on a grass field over the last two seasons.  The Seahawks are 6-22 ATS in their last 28 games off a blowout home win by 21 points or more.  Seattle is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games.  Look for a rejuvenated Rams' fan base to come out in bunches for this key divisional game.

Plays on favorites (LA RAMS) - after scoring 30 points or more last game against opponent after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 34-12 (73.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Rams Sunday.

25* AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Cincinnati Bengals -2.5

The Cincinnati Bengals felt like they should have beaten the Packers in Week 3.  They led the entire way until overtime, and lost 24-27 as 7-point road dogs at Lambeau Field.  They dropped to 0-3 and easily could have quit on their season.

Instead, they showed a ton of fight in a 31-7 win at Cleveland as 3.5-point favorites, playing their best game of the season.  Andy Dalton has shown a ton of resiliency after a disastrous start to the season.  He has completed 46-of-57 passes (80.7%) for 498 yards with a 6-to-0 TD/INT ratio in his last two games.

At 1-3 on the season, the Bengals feel like they still have their backs against the wall.  They cannot afford to take any games off moving forward.  They need this win here at home against the Bills.  And they won't be looking ahead to their game against the Steelers because they get a bye next week.  They will be 100% focused on beating the Bills here. 

This team now has the belief, especially with their motivational leader in Vontaze Burfict returning from suspension last week.  It's no coincidence that the defense came through with their best effort last week, limiting the Browns to just 7 points and 215 total yards.  This is a defense that is now giving up just 16.7 points, 273 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play.

The offense came to life the last two weeks as well, and that should continue moving forward with all of the talent they have on this side of the ball.  They still boast A.J. Green and the three-headed monster at running back in Joe Mixon, Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard.  And Dalton has clearly found a way to get his weapons the ball with efficiency the last two weeks.

The Buffalo Bills are feeling fat and happy right now after their surprising 3-1 start.  After beating the Broncos at home, the Bills got a huge break last week when both Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu were knocked out of the game with injuries.  Clearly, the Falcons are just an average team without those two.  And the Bills took advantage and pulled the 23-17 road upset as 8-point dogs.  Now, this is a clear letdown spot for Buffalo.

I think these teams are pretty evenly-matched defensively as the Bills also have a very good D.  But there's no question the Bengals have the better offense.  The Bills are averaging just 18.2 points, 284 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play offensively. They are only averaging 3.4 yards per carry and 171 passing yards per game.

Tyrod Taylor has done a good job of keeping the Bills in games by not turning the ball over.  In fact, the Bills have committed just one turnover all season, compared to eight for Cincinnati.  There is going to be some regression to the mean here as the Bills are +6 in turnover differential, while the Bengals are -5. 

And now Taylor is going to be without leading receiver Jordan Matthews (10 receptions, 162 yards, 16.2/catch), who is expected to miss the next 3-4 weeks with a thumb injury. This Bills team hasn't been as good as their record as they are actually getting outgained by 22 yards per game on the season and dead even in yards per play.  The Bengals are better than their record, outgaining teams by 19 yards per game and 0.5 yards per play.

Cincinnati is 30-12 ATS in its last 42 games after leading the previous game by 14 points or more at the half.  Buffalo is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 road games versus good defensive teams that allow 4.75 or fewer yards per play this season.

Plays on favorites (CINCINNATI) - after covering the spread in two out of their last three games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 43-15 (74.1%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Bengals Sunday.

20* Pats/Bucs NFL Thursday Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 56

All the talk coming into this game is how poor the defenses have been playing for both the Bucs and Patriots.  That has forced oddsmakers to post an inflated number, and now the value is clearly with the UNDER 56 points in this matchup Thursday night.

The Patriots have been the worst defensive team in the NFL thus far.  What are the chances of it remaining that way moving forward with Bill Belichick at the helm?  Slim to none.  I look for a big effort from the Patriots' defense in this one to try and prove their naysayers wrong.

And you can bet that Tom Brady and company will be trying to help out the defense as much as possible.  And that means slowing down the pace, moving the chains, and keeping the defense off the field.  Look for the Patriots to go to more of a ball control offense moving forward until the defense catches up.

Injuries were a big reason why the Bucs gave up 34 points at Minnesota in Week 3.  But they are expected to have both Kwon Alexander and Brent Grimes in this one, two players they didn't have in that game.  Plus T.J. Ward could return from a quad injury.

The Bucs have a ton of talent on defense and will be fine moving forward.  They have been much better at home this season, limiting their two opponents to just 15.0 points per game.  I believe they'll fare better against the Patriots on that side of the ball than most are expecting.

Tampa Bay has had to rely on the pass too much in the early going, only averaging 85 rushing yards per game.  But they should have more balance now with Doug Martin returning from his three-game suspension.  More runs means the clock will keep moving with fewer incompletions, which aids the under.

Plays on the UNDER on roadteams against the total (NEW ENGLAND) - after going over the total by more than 14 points in two consecutive games, after the first month of the season are 30-9 (76.9%) over the last 10 seasons.  After four straight overs by the Patriots to open the season, this number is simply inflated.  We'll go against the public perception here and back the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

25* MNF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Redskins/Chiefs UNDER 49.5

The books have set the bar way too high in this matchup between the Washington Redskins and Kansas City Chiefs Monday night.  I full expect a defensive battle here and for points to be much harder to come by than this 49.5-point total would suggest.

One of the surprises of this young season is just how well the Redskins have played defensively.  They are only giving up 20.0 points, 272 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play against teams that average 29.4 points, 348 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  They are holding opponents to 9.4 points, 76 yards and 0.7 yards per play less than their season average.

Of course, nobody has had a better defensive performance than the Redskins had last week in dismantling the Raiders 27-10.  That was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed.  They held the Raiders to just 128 total yards and forced three turnovers.  That's very impressive when you consider how much talent is on that Oakland offense.

The Chiefs have played well offensively thus far, but they won't keep up this pace as this is still a limited offense.  More than anything, the Chiefs have been winning with defense once again.  They are giving up just 19.0 points per game and 5.5 yards per play against teams that average 24.9 points and 6.0 yards per play.  Despite playing some very good offenses, both defenses have really shown well thus far.

Both teams are actually relying very heavily on the run this season, which is going to keep the clock moving.  The Redskins are rushing for 136 yards per game while the Chiefs are averaging 162 yards per game on the ground.  And both quarterbacks have been extremely accurate with the Chiefs completing 77.4% of their passes, and the Redskins 68.0%.  But a lot of that is due to dink and dunk, which is a good way to move the ball down the field, but you won't see type of explosive plays in this one that would normally kill an under.

Washington is a perfect 10-0 UNDER in its last 10 Monday Night football road games.  Kansas City is 8-0 to the UNDER off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  The Chiefs are 6-0 to the UNDER in home games versus good offensive teams averaging 350 or more yards per game over the last three years.  These three trends combine for a perfect 24-0 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday night.

20* Raiders/Broncos Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Denver -2.5

The Denver Broncos were in a tough spot last week.  They were traveling on the road for the first time after coming off a huge 42-17 win over the Cowboys, and with an even bigger game against the Raiders on deck.  It's forgivable that they lost out East to the Buffalo Bills, who have one of the more underrated home-field advantages in the NFL.

According to this 2.5-point spread, the betting public is down on the Broncos all of a sudden.  And they're quick to forgive the Raiders for their 10-27 loss at Washington.  But that was easily the worst performance of the week from any team.  The Raiders managed just 118 total yards and committed three turnovers against a very shaky Washington defense.  They were outgained by a whopping 344 yards in the loss!

Denver lost 16-26 at Buffalo, but that was a misleading final.  The Broncos actually outgained the Bills by 94 yards.  And on the season, the Broncos are outgaining teams by 93 yards per game.  Their offense has produced 27.3 points and 356 yards per game, while their defense may be the best in the NFL, giving up 21.3 points, 263 yards per game and 4.4 per play.  The Raiders give up 6.2 yards per play for comparison.

The Broncos beat the Raiders 24-6 as 1-point home favorites last year.  They held the Raiders to just 221 total yards.  They do have the best pass defense in the NFL, which is why they match up so well with Derek Carr and the Raiders.  The Broncos have won four of their last five home meetings with the Raiders overall.

Trevor Siemian is better than he gets credit for.  He is completing 63% of his passes for 709 yards with six touchdowns and four interceptions while averaging 7.1 per attempt.  The Denver rushing attack is working well behind the two-headed monster of C.J. Anderson (235 yards, 4.4/carry) and Jamaal Charles (142 yards, 4.1/carry).  And the Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders form one of the more underrated WR duos in the NFL.

The Broncos are 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 home games.  Denver is 16-7 ATS in its last 23 games following a loss.  The favorite is 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings in this series.  The Raiders are 2-8-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Take the Broncos Sunday.

15* 49ers/Cardinals NFC West No-Brainer on San Francisco +7

I have cashed in the 49ers as a premium pick each of the last two weeks.  They covered as 14-point road dogs in a 12-9 loss at Seattle, and snuck in the cover as 3-point dogs in a 39-41 loss to the Rams last week.  I'm on them again this week because I think they are better than oddsmakers and the betting public give them credit for.

I'm also on them because of the tremendous scheduling advantage.  The 49ers played last Thursday, giving them a mini-bye week.  Teams coming off Thursday games are 4-0 ATS this season, and I cashed in both the Bengals and Texans in this same spot last week.

Making the spot even better for the 49ers is the fact that the Cardinals are working on a short week after losing 17-28 at home to the Dallas Cowboys on Monday Night Football.  The Cardinals are broken right now without David Johnson, and it's clear that Carson Palmer needs to retire.  There's no way Arizona should be laying 7 points here.

After playing two very great defenses in the Panthers and Seahawks the first two weeks, the 49ers finally got on track offensively against another good defense in the Rams last week.  They racked up 421 yards and 39 points against the Rams.  Brian Hoyer threw for 332 yards, while Carlos Hyde rushed for 84 yards and two scores.  Pierre Garcon showed why he was their prized offseason acquisition, catching 7 balls for 142 yards in the loss.

The Cardinals have obviously been terrible offensively, but their defense has surprisingly taken a step back this year.  They are giving up 25.3 points per game on the season.  I think Kyle Shanahan, one of the best offensive minds in the game, will utilize this extra prep time to take advantages of the holes that have been showing up in this Arizona defense.

San Francisco only lost 20-23 at Arizona last year.  That was a bad 49ers team, much worse than the 2017 version.  And the Cardinals were much better last year than they are this season.  I'm not so sure that there's much difference in these teams talent-wise right now, which is why the 49ers shouldn't be catching a touchdown.

Plays on any team (SAN FRANCISCO) - a poor offensive team (14-18 PPG) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG), after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  San Francisco is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. NFC West opponents.  The Cardinals are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  The 49ers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 trips to Arizona.  Bet the 49ers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Rams +7.5

This is a great spot to back the Los Angeles Rams.  The Rams are coming off a Thursday game, getting a mini-bye week.  The Dallas Cowboys played on Monday Night Football, making this short week for them.  It's a huge scheduling spot advantage for the Rams, and I look for them to capitalize Sunday.

After all, teams coming off a Thursday game are 4-0 ATS this season.  I had the two last week in the Bengals and Texans as premium picks, and both cashed with ease.  Not to mention, the Cowboys are 0-8 SU & 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games coming off a Monday Night game.

Plus, the Rams are one of the most improved teams in the NFL this season.  They are off to a 2-1 start with a 46-9 home win over Indianapolis, and a 41-39 road win at San Francisco.  I can forgive their 20-27 loss to the Redskins considering what the Redskins did to the Raiders last week, outgaining them by 344 yards in a 27-10 victory.

Sean McVay is doing big things with the Rams.  He was the former offensive coordinator of the Washington Redskins, and he is starting to help Jared Goff get to the next level.  The Rams are averaging 35.7 points, 374 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play on offense.  Goff is completing 70.4 percent of his pases for 817 yards with five touchdowns and one interception while averaging a whopping 10.1 yards per attempt.  Todd Gurley has already found the end zone six times in three games, and Sammy Watkins is averaging 14.9 yards per catch with two scores.

The Cowboys were fortunate to win their game against the lowly Cardinals last week.  Dak Prescott made some big plays, and the Cardinals' special teams kept giving them short fields.  The Cardinals had a TD called back by a penalty that would have put them up 14-0, then proceeded to miss a short field goal.  It completely changed the complexion of the game.

I think the Dallas offensive line is overrated right now.  They're really not playing well up front.  They are only averaging 89 rushing yards per game and 3.8 yards per carry.  Dak Prescott has consistently been under duress.  This is a Cowboys offense that is only averaging 311 yards per game, and a big reason has been the offensive line struggles.

Defensively, the Cowboys have some key injuries in the secondary and were absolutely lit up by Trevor Siemian two weeks ago.  They are giving up 67.8% completions to opposing quarterbacks.  Look for Goff to continue making strides this week as he lights up this Dallas secondary.

The spot already couldn't be worse for the Cowboys with the short week and the Rams coming off extended rest.  But adding to that is the fact that the Cowboys play the Packers next week, and they want revenge from their loss to Green Bay in the NFC Divisional Round.  So this is a look-ahead spot as well.

Jason Garrett is 13-27 ATS as a home favorite as the coach of the Cowboys.  The Rams are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 road games after scoring 35 points or more in their previous game.  Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (LA RAMS) - excellent passing team - averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/attempt, after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in three straight games are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Roll with the Rams Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Vikings -1.5

I believe the Minnesota Vikings are neck-and-neck with the Atlanta Falcons as the best team in the NFC.  And getting them under a field goal here at home against the Detroit Lions is an excellent value.  This line suggest Case Keenum will get the start again, as it would be a field goal or more if Sam Bradford was going to play.  But I just don't believe there's that big of a difference between Keenum and Bradford.

The Vikings have one of the best rosters in the NFL.  They are loaded everywhere, so it makes the job much easier on the quarterback.  And Keenum certainly did his part last week in a 34-17 win over Tampa Bay.  He went 25 of 33 passing for 369 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions.  The Vikings racked up 494 yards as a team, so clearly they are fine without Bradford.

The Detroit Lions are getting way too much respect from the books due to their 2-1 start.  But they trailed Arizona 17-15 in the 4th quarter in Week 1 before David Johnson got hurt, and the Cardinals have been awful since.  They beat a Giants team that is now 0-3 and had offensive line injury problems at the time they played them.

Sure, the Lions only lost 26-30 to the Falcons last week at home, but that game was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  The Falcons outgained them 428 to 324 and lost the turnover battle 3-0, including a pick-6 by the Lions, yet Detroit still couldn't beat them.  And it's going to be tough for them to recover mentally after having a potential game-winning touchdown called back by a review, requiring a 10-second runoff to end the game.

The Vikings started fast last year and they are starting fast this year.  But they were bad in the second half due to injuries throughout the roster.  And they played the Lions twice in November last year during their bad stretch, losing 16-22 at home and 16-13 on the road.  You can bet the Vikings are going to want to exact some revenge here on their division rivals, and they are healthy basically everywhere but the QB position this time around.

The Vikings have gone 19-4 straight up in their last 23 home meetings with the Lions.  Matthew Stafford is 5-47 in his career against teams with a winning record.  The Lions are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.  The Vikings are 9-0 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Minnesota is 24-7 ATS in its last 31 home games overall.  Take the Vikings Sunday.

25* NFL Overseas GAME OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Saints -2

The New Orleans Saints have played the toughest schedule in the NFL to this point.  They have been underdogs in all three games at Minnesota, versus New England and at Carolina, so they've done a good job of coming away with a 1-2 record.  Their 34-13 domination of Carolina was particularly impressive because the defense stepped up, limiting the Panthers to just 288 total yards and forcing three turnovers.

Now the Saints get a break here against one of the worst teams in the NFL.  The Miami Dolphins should be 0-2, but San Diego's kicker missed on the final play of the game, so they escaped with a 19-17 victory.  And the Chargers clearly aren't very good.  Then last week the Dolphins would have been shut out by arguably the worst team in the league in the Jets if Adam Gase hadn't called a timeout with six seconds left.  They scored a TD on the final play, avoiding the shutout in an embarrassing 6-20 loss as 5.5-point favorites.

The Saints had some key injuries and suspensions that they had to deal with through the first three games.  But one of Drew Brees' favorite targets in Willie Sneed returns from his 3-game suspension, and now tackles Terron Armstead and Zach Strief are likely to return from injury this week.  Getting healthy is going to make the Saints a very dangerous team moving forward.

The Dolphins are in another tough spot here.  They have done way too much traveling here in a short amount of time.  They stayed out in California for a week ahead of their game against the Chargers, then flew back to Miami to practice before flying all the way up to New York.  Now they have to head back down to Miami, and head overseas to London.  You can bet these players have to be sick of traveling by now, and it certainly has set them behind in the preparation department.

It's clear that Jay Cutler should have stuck with his decision to call games from a booth.  The Dolphins' offense is averaging just 12.5 points, 280 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play against opponents that are allowing 23.2 points, 335 yards per game and 5.6 per play.  And their defense hasn't been much better, surrendering 6.4 yards per play against opponents that only average 5.3 yards per play.

The Saints are 8-1 ATS off a division game over the last three seasons.  New Orleans is 6-0 ATS in road games after scoring 30 points or more in their previous game over the past three seasons.  Miami is 15-34 ATS in its last 49 games off a two-game road trip.  New Orleans is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 October games.  The Saints are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games.  Bet the Saints Sunday.

15* Bears/Packers NFC North ANNIHILATOR on Green Bay -6.5

I think last week's results are keeping this line lower than it should be.  The Bears upset the Steelers 23-17 in overtime, while the Packers needed overtime to beat the Bengals 27-24.  Chicago won outright as 7-point dogs, while Green Bay was fortunate to win the game as 7-point favorites.  If not for those results, the Packers would be closer to 10-point favorites.

I faded the Packers last week due to injury concerns along their offensive line, and the fact that the Bengals were coming off a Thursday game and playing for their season.  But I think this is a good spot to back the home team.  It's tough to travel on a short week for the Bears, and they just aren't as good as the Bengals in my opinion.

We saw what happened to the Bears when they went on the road for their only game this year, losing 7-29 to the Tampa Bay Bucs.  Mike Glennon played a terrible game and the Bears committed four turnovers as a team.  I don't think Glennon can match Rodgers score for scores.

The Bears had control of the game against the Steelers so they were able to play to their strength, which is their running game.  In fact, Mike Glennon went 15-of-22 passing for just 101 yards in the win.  He only compleleted one pass to a wide receiver as 12 of his completions came to running backs.  That vanilla offense isn't going to work against Green Bay, and they're going to be toast once they fall behind.  They don't have the firepower to catch up.

The Packers are expected to get back some key parts this week in WR Randall Cobb, LB Nick Perry and DT Mike Daniels this week.  They still have their offensive line concerns, but fortunately they have a mobile quarterback in Aaron Rodgers who makes his biggest plays when getting outside the pocket.  He relishes this challenge.

Death, taxes and the Packers owning the Bears are the only certainties in life.  Green Bay has won 12 of its last 14 meetings with Chicago.  The Packers have covered in 10 of the last 13 meetings as well.  They won 26-10 at home last year as 7-point favorites, outgaining the Bears by 217 yards in the process.

Mike McCarthy is 47-26 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of the Packers.  He is 28-15 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less as the coach of Green Bay.  Chicago is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games when the total is 42.5 to 49 points.  The Bears are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games.  The Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Green Bay is 45-22 ATS in its last 67 vs. NFC North opponents.  Take the Packers Thursday.

20* Cowboys/Cardinals MNF Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 47

There are a lot of factors that point to a low-scoring game Monday night between the Dallas Cowboys and Arizona Cardinals.  I think this 47-point total is too high here, and we'll take advantage and back the UNDER.

The Cardinals have not been sharp on offense since losing David Johnson.  They only managed 13 points in regulation against a terrible Colts' defense last week.  Carson Palmer is a shell of his former self and can't carry a team like he used to.  Plus three of his top targers in WR JJ Nelson, WR John Brown and TE Jermaine Gresham are all banged up and questionable to play Monday.

The Cowboys did not look good defensively against the Broncos last week.  However, they should have much more success on that side of the ball against this limited Arizona offense.  We saw the Cowboys hold the Giants to just 3 points in Week 1, so I don't think they are broken on that side of the ball just yet.  And they are expected to get starting CB Orlando Scandrick back this week after he missed last week.

I expect the Cowboys to get back to running the football on offense.  They got away from their game plan last week and Dak Prescott had to throw a whopping 50 passes against the Broncos last week because they were trailing the whole game.  They only had 14 rush attempts.  They'll try to establish Zeke Elliott early and often, and that will help to chew up clock, extend drives and keep their vulnerable defense off the field.

Arizona does still have one of the elite defenses in the NFL.  The Cardinals finished No. 2 in the league in total defense last season.  They are great at all three levels with tremendous pass rushers, speedy linebackers and arguably the best secondary in the game.  They held the Colts to just 266 total yards last week and 13 points.  They gave up 35 points to the Lions in Week 1, but that was mostly due to the offense committing four turnovers, one of which was returned for a TD.

Dallas is a perfect 8-0 to the UNDER off one or more consecutive overs over the last three seasons.  Arizona is 6-0 UNDER in home games off one or more consecutive unders over the last three years.  The UNDER is 11-3 in Cowboys last 14 road games.  The UNDER is 10-2 in Cardinals last 12 home games.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Cardinals last six Monday games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* Bengals/Packers Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Cincinnati +9

The Cincinnati Bengals are just the type of 'buy low' team that I like to back.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them after their 0-2 start.  They haven't score a touchdown yet, one of only two teams (49ers) to accomplish that feat through two weeks.  And the 49ers covered against the Rams on Thursday and scored 39 points.

The Bengals are in a good spot to correct their mistakes.  They are coming off a mini-bye week after playing last Thursday, which was the perfect time to fire their offensive coordinator.  It gives them extra time to get used to Bill Lazor's offense as he steps into the position after being the QB coach.  And this was a banged up team that has had extra time to get healthy as well.  I always like backing teams coming off a Thursday game, and we saw both the Pats and Chiefs cover in this situation last week.

The Bengals just have too much talent on offense to be held in check for much longer.   They have AJ Green, Tyler Eifert, Tyler Boyd and a three-headed monster at RB led by talented rookie Joe Mixon, who should see an increased role with Lazor calling the shots.  Playing two of the best defenses in the NFL in the Ravens and Texans has certainly been a big reason for their offensive struggles.  I strongly believe the Bengals will live up to their potential on this side of the ball this week.

The Packers have been one of the biggest public teams for years.  Bettors are just going to back them blindly because they are at home.  But remember, this is a Packers team that started 4-6 last year and needed a big run just to make the playoffs.  Aaron Rodgers is making a habit of working magic late in seasons, but it's also been a trend that this team gets off to slow starts and is a money burner early in the year.

That's going to be the case again in 2017 simply because the Packers have huge injury concerns right now that they can't just overcome and win games by margins.  Their best defensive player in DT Mike Daniels left the Atlanta game last week and is questionable.  LB Nick Perry and LB Ahmad Brooks are both questionable.  And that's just on defense.

The problems are much bigger on offense.  The Packers played without their two starting tackles along the offensive line last week and both are questionable to return this week.  Both Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb were knocked out of the game last week due to injury and are questionable to play.  This is simply a mash unit right now that isn't capable of covering a 9-point spread against a hungry Bengals team coming off a mini-bye week.

Plays against home favorites (GREEN BAY) - team with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 24 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 33-5 (86.8%) ATS since 1983.  Roll with the Bengals Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Texans +13.5

Yes, I'm fading the Patriots again this week.  I had the Chiefs in Week 1 against them which was an easy winner. But I lost with the Saints last week.  However, there were a few takeaways from that Saints game that has me quick to fade the Patriots again.

New England jumped out to a 30-13 halftime lead. But they only scored 6 points in the 2nd half.  And a lot of that had to do with the injuries suffered on offense throughout the game  The Patriots came into the game without both Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola.

Then Rob Gronkowski, Chris Hogan and Philip Dorsett all got hurt.  Hogan is probable to play this week, while Gronk and Dorsett are both questionable.  I know the Patriots find ways to score no matter what, but they are seriously limited right now on offense.  So asking them to beat the Texans by two touchdowns here is asking too much.

I like what I saw from the Texans last week.  They led the NFL in total defense last year and have a dominant unit again.  They held the Bengals to just 3 field goals.

Offensively, the switch to Deshaun Watson at QB is huge for this team I think.  His athletic ability helps mask some of the issues on the offensive line.  That was evident with his 49-yard TD run that basically won the game for the Texans.  He didn't turn the ball over, and they rushed for 168 yards as a team.  I'd like to see Watson use his legs more because he's a serious weapon.

The Texans should have WR Bruce Ellington and TE Ryan Griffin back this week from concussions.  CB Jonathan Joseph, WR Will Fuller and TE Stephen Andersen all returned to practice this week after missing last week.  So Watson will have more weapons to work with and should find plenty of success against this soft Patriots defense.

The Patriots allowed 31 PPG in the preseason.  Now they are giving up 31 PPG and 483 YPG in the regular season through two games.  Their most important defensive player, LB Dont'a Hightower, missed last week with an injury and is questionable to return this week.

It's a huge advantage for the Texans getting that 3 extra days of rest after playing last Thursday.  I always like backing teams coming off a Thursday night game and getting that mini-bye, which has helped the Texans get heatlhy.  Both the Patriots and Chiefs covered last week in this same situation.  Houston is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games.  Take the Texans Sunday.

25* NFC South GAME OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Saints +6

The New Orleans Saints are 0-2 right now because of the difficult schedule they have faced.  They were 3-point road dogs at Minnesota and lost 19-29, and then they were 6.5-point home dogs against a hungry Patriots team and lost 36-20.  Sure, they could have been more competitive, but they are 0-2 just like they're supposed to be.  And they're being undervalued now because of it.

Carolina would be 0-2 against the same schedule.  Instead, the Panthers are 2-0 thanks to playing the 49ers and Bills.  They were 4.5-point favorites at San Francisco and 6.5-point home favorites over the Bills.  But since they're 2-0 they are being overvalued now.  This is clearly a great 'buy low, sell high' situation as we'll buy low on the Saints and sell high on the Panthers.

The Saints will be extremely motivated to avoid an 0-3 start, while the Panthers could fall flat after their 2-0 start.  And the Panthers have all kinds of issues right now that leaves me wondering how they can possibly be 6-point favorites here.  Their offense has been terrible, and they have some serious injury concerns right now.

Cam Newton was injured against the Bills and didn't look right.  He will play this week, but he won't be 100%.  They lost his favorite weapon in TE Greg Olsen to a broken foot, and now he's out for the next 6-8 weeks.  Plus, T Matt Kalil (neck) and WR Kelvin Benjamin (knee) are both questionable this week with injuries.

This was a Carolina offense that was struggling even before all these injuries.  They are scoring just 16.0 points per game, averaging 271 yards per game, and just 4.4 yards per play.  Now I don't know what they are going to be able to do with Olsen out and a hobbled Newton and Benjamin.  Their only healthy weapon is Christian McCaffrey, and they're limiting his touches this season to try and keep him healthy and fresh.

Taking a look at this head-to-head series, this is a rivalry that always goes down to the wire.  In fact, all four meetings over the last three seasons have been decided by 5 points or less, including three by exactly a field goal.  And that's where I think this line should be, Carolina -3, not Carolina -6.  And three points of value in the NFL is huge.

The Saints have been moving the ball fine, but they've had to settle for too many field goals.  The Panthers have faced two awful passing teams in Buffalo and San Francisco, making their defense look better than it is.  The Panthers have a good front seven, but their secondary is their weakness as it has been since they lost Josh Norman.  Drew Brees is just the guy to exploit that weakness this week.  New Orleans has averaged 30.3 points per game in its last four meetings with Carolina.

Plays against home favorites (CAROLINA) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in two straight games are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Saints are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games, including 5-0 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet the Saints Sunday.

15* Rams/49ers NFL Thursday No-Brainer on San Francisco +3

This line indicates that the Los Angeles Rams would be favored by roughly 6 points over the San Francisco 49ers on a neutral field.  And I simply think that's too much.  This line should be either a PK or the 49ers as a small favorite because there isn't that much difference between these two teams.

The Rams are going to be favorites for the third straight week, which hasn't happened in a long time for them.  Sure, they are going to be improved this year, but they haven't played anyone yet.  They crushed the Colts, who may be the worst team in in the NFL right now.  And they lost to a Redskins team that I'm down on, both at home.  Now the Rams have to go on the road for the first time.

I was on the 49ers last week against the Seahawks, and they nearly pulled off the road upset as 14-point dogs in a 12-9 loss.  I think this team is way undervalued due to their 0-2 start.  But their other loss came to the Panthers.  The Rams would be 0-2 if they played those two teams as well.

The 49ers have a defense they can lean on.  They are giving up just 17.5 points and 299 yards per game this season.  They are also only allowing 4.3 yards per play.  The Rams gave up 385 total yards to the Redskins last week, including a ridiculous 229 rushing.  They are allowing 4.8 yards per carry this season.

That plays right into the 49ers' hands because their strength is running the football.  Carlos Hyde is fourth in the league in rushing with 169 yards.  What is most impressive is the fact that he is averaging 7.0 yards per carry.  He should find plenty of success on the ground against the Rams here, and Brian Hoyer should be much sharper in his third start of the season, especially if his receivers stop dropping the ball.

The 49ers have owned the Rams in recent years, going 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.  They swept the season series last year, winning 28-0 at home.  Plays on any team (SAN FRANCISCO) - after scoring 9 points or less in two straight games are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  It's time to 'buy low' on San Francisco tonight.  Take the 49ers Thursday.

20* Lions/Giants ESPN Monday No-Brainer on New York -3.5

The Detroit Lions were extremely fortunate to go 9-7 last year and make the playoffs.  They took advantage of an easy schedule and great breaks.  Eight of the Lions' nine wins came by a touchdown or less.  They actually trailed in the fourth quarter in 15 of their 16 regular season games, but Matthew Stafford kept pulling off miracles late.

The Lions actually trailed in the 4th quarter last week against the Cardinals, but then reeled off 21 straight points after David Johnson went out with an injury.  The Cardinals handed them the game by committing four turnovers, including three picks from Carson Palmer.  Now the Lions are getting too much respect from oddsmakers heading into Week 2 based on one performance.

This is the perfect sell high, buy low game.  We'll sell high on the Lions, and buy low on a New York Giants team that looked awful on the National TV stage in a 3-19 loss to the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football.  But the Cowboys simply wanted that game more after getting swept by the Giants last year.  Look for the Giants to bring a different, more determined mindset into their home opener on Monday Night Football in Week 2.

It would be nice if the Giants get Odell Beckham back this week from injury, but if not I still like them at -3.5.  This line is only going to climb if it's announced he is playing.  But the Giants still have plenty of weapons outside to get the job done in Brandon Marshall, Evan Ingram and Sterling Shephard.

But what really makes the Giants the right side is their huge advantage defensively.  Pro Football Focus ranked the Giants the best defense in the NFL last year, and they have basically everyone back.  Holding a potent Cowboys offense to just 19 points last week was impressive, especially since the Giants only held the ball for 25 minutes on offense.  New York defenders fought through fatigue and had an admirable performance.

The Lions had one of the worst defenses in the NFL last year, and now they are heavily injured on this side of the ball early on in 2017.  DE Kerry Hyder and DE Armonty Bryant are out.  The Lions also have injuries two two starting tacklers on offense in Taylor Decker (out) and Corey Robinson (questionable).  I expect the Giants to win the battle of the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball in this one.

The Giants beat the Lions 17-6 at home last season behind a dominant effort defensively, and we can anticipate more of the same in the rematch.  Detroit is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 road games off an upset win as a home dog.  Jim Caldwell is 0-8 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better as the coach of Detroit.  The Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Bet the Giants Monday.

15* 49ers/Seahawks Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco +14

This is a massive spread for a division rivalry game between the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers.  The Seahawks are clearly the better team, but asking them to win by two touchdowns or more to cover the spread is asking too much here Sunday.

The Seahawks have issues offensively that aren't immediately fixable, and that was evident in their 9-17 road loss to the Packers in Week 1.  They managed just 225 total yards against an average Packers defense.  Russell Wilson completed just 51.9% of his passes for 135 yards on 27 attempts.

Seattle has the same problem offensively that it has had for the last several years.  It fails to upgrade the offensive line, and Russell Wilson continuously has to run for his life.  Of course, it didn't help matters when starting LT George Fant suffered and torn ACL in the preseason.

That makes this a good matchup for the 49ers, whose strength is their front seven defensively.  The 49ers have added elite talent in the early rounds of recent NFL drafts to upgrade their defensive line and LB corps.  They still have Navorro Bowman around to lead the troops, and he remains one of the elite LB's in the league.

The 49ers played a better game than the 23-3 final would indicate against the Panthers, especially defensively.  They only allowed 287 total yards to the Panthers and 4.6 yards per play.  They were very good against the run, limiting the Panthers to just 3.1 yards per carry on 38 attempts.  I think their defense will keep them in this game.

The offense obviously was not effective in managing just a field goal against the Panthers.  But Kyle Shanahan is one of the best offensive minds in the game as we saw last year with the Falcons, and he will figure out a way to make this offense hum.  It's a complex scheme that wasn't going to be hitting on all cylinders in Week 1, but I look for Brian Hoyer and company to take a step forward this week.

The Seahawks are notorious slow starters.  They are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Week 2 games.  The 49ers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight vs. NFC West opponents.  I expect San Francisco to harass Russell Wilson for four quarters and stay within two touchdowns this week.  Roll with the 49ers Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Rams -2.5

If you don't jump on now you're going to miss the boat on the Los Angeles Rams.  This is going to be one of the most improved teams in the NFL this season.  The 46-9 win over the Indianapolis Colts was no fluke last week, and I look for the Rams to make easy work of the Washington Redskins as only 2.5-point home favorites in Week 2.

Sean McVay is the youngest head coach in NFL history, and his players feed off his energy.  He ran an excellently-designed offense in Washington before coming here, and that offense was on display in a big way against the Colts.  It's no accident Jared Goff had the best game of his career, completing 21 of 29 passes for 306 yards and a touchdown in the win.  It was Goff's first victory as a starting QB, and there will be many more to come under McVay's tutelage.

The Rams have had one of the most talented defenses in the NFL over the last few years, and the offense has simply held them back.  But now this defense can flourish in 2017.  That was the case against the Colts as the D held them to just 225 total yards while forcing three turnovers.  And that was even without their best player in DT Aaron Donald, who could return to action this week.

I'm way down on the Redskins this season.  They have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, one that gave up 30 points, 356 total yards and 5.7 yards per play to the Eagles last week.  The offense will take a step back without McVay calling the shots, especially with the losses of two of their best weapons in DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon in the offseason.  This offense managed just 264 total yards and 4.6 per play against the Eagles last week.

The Rams are 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Redskins.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Saints +7

Yes, the last three times the Patriots lost their season opener they went on to win the Super Bowl.  Yes, the Patriots under Bill Belichick have been great bets following a loss.  But the fact of the matter is that these aren't the same old Patriots.  I faded them by backing the Chiefs +9 Thursday, and I'll fade them again in Week 2.

The New England Patriots couldn't have possibly been more overvalued heading into 2017.  They won the Super Bowl last year while coming back from 28-3 down to beat the Falcons.  They went 17-2 overall and a ridiculous 16-3 against the spread.  The betting public isn't going to abandon them now after they treated them so well last year.  That's going to provide some nice line value to fade them moving forward.

Tom Brady has been known to have great chemistry with his receivers, but that isn't the case now that he's without perhaps his favorite receiver ever in Julian Edelman.  Brady went just 16-of-36 passing for 267 yards without a touchdown in the 27-42 loss to the Chiefs.  Now Danny Amendola is questionable with a concussion after getting knocked out of the Chiefs game.

There were many signs in the preseason that the Patriots wouldn't be good defensively.  They gave up 31 points to Jacksonville, 27 to Houston, 28 to Detroit and 40 to the Giants.  That carried over into the regular season as they gave up 42 points and 537  total yards to an underwhelming Chiefs offense.

Now that defense has to take on what has historically been one of the best offenses in the NFL over the past decade in the Saints.  And the Patriots have serious injury issues on defense, especially at LB where Dont'a Hightower is doubtful after suffering a knee injury to the Chiefs.  New England's defense completely imploded once he left the field as he is probably their most important player on that side of the ball.

Brees went 27-of-37 passing (73.0%) against a very good Vikings defense last week in a 19-29 road loss.  They trailed most the way so they couldn't utilize their talented backfield of Adrian Peterson, Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara as much as they wanted to.  Look for them to really focus on getting the running game going against a Patriots defense that surrendered 185 rushing yards and 6.9 per carry to the Chiefs.

Sean Payton is 25-10 ATS off a road loss at the coach of New Orleans.  Payton is 19-7 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of the Saints.  The Saints are 7-0 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a losing record.  New Orleans is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games overall.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Saints Sunday.

20* Texans/Bengals AFC Thursday No-Brainer on Houston +6.5

The Houston Texans and Cincinnati Bengals were both thoroughly embarrassed in Week 1.  The Texans lost 7-29 at home to the Jaguars, while the Bengals lost 0-20 at home to the Ravens.  Both teams will come back motivated in Week 2.

But I'm not sure why the Bengals are getting so much respect from the oddsmakers here.  This line opened at Bengals -3, which is about where it should be, and has been bet all the way up to Bengals -6.5 as of this writing.  I think the time is now to pounce and take the Texans at a great value in a game that is likely to come down to the wire.

The Texans pretty much gave away the game to the Jaguars by committing four turnovers, one of which was returned for a touchdown.  Their defense played well in limiting the Jaguars to 280 total yards, and this is going to be one of the best defenses in the NFL again after leading the league in total defense last year.

Tom Savage really sabotaged the team in the first half.  Bill O'Brien made the switch to Deshaun Watson at halftime, and they played the Jaguars to a 10-7 game after intermission.  Watson played well, going 12 of 23 for 102 yards with a touchdown and an interception, while also rushing for 16 yards on two carries.

It looks as though Watson is going to get the nod Thursday against the Bengals, which I think is an upgrade for the Texans.  The offensive line got manhandled by a very underrated front seven for Jacksonville, and Watson's mobility behind this shaky O-line will help mask the problems.  He's not afraid of the big stage, so I'm far from worried about this being his first NFL road game.  This guy has the 'It' factor.

I was way down on the Bengals coming into the season, and they did nothing Week 1 to change my opinion.  They committed five turnovers and managed just 221 total yards in their ugly 20-0 loss to the Ravens.  They are missing some key players on defense in safety Shawn Williams, DE Michael Johnson and LB Vontaze Burfict that will have their D exposed in the short term.

The Texans have clearly had the Bengals' number.  They are 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  They have won each of their last three trips to Cincinnati outright as dogs of 10, 4 and 2.5 points.  I wouldn't be surprised to see them pull off the upset once again here.

The Texans are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.  Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (CINCINNATI) - after a loss by 10 or more points against opponent after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half are 75-36 (67.6%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Texans Thursday.

20* Chargers/Broncos ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +3.5

The Chargers get a breathe of fresh air in 2017 with their move to Los Angeles.  It will help them get over their 5-11 season from 2016 which saw lose more starts due to injury than any other team in the NFL.  Yet this easily could have been a .500 or better team when you look at how they fared in close games.

All 11 of San Diego's losses last season came by 12 points or less, including nine by 8 points or fewer.  So they were competitive in every game they played essentially.  Philip Rivers got the most out of the talent he had on hand, but he also made some critical mistakes late in games.  Anything that could go wrong did last year.

I think the Chargers are putting a lot into this season knowing that Rivers only has a few years left.  He should get a healthy season from Keenan Allen after he missed most of the last two years with injuries.  They selected Mike Williams seventh overall and he should come in and contribute in a big way right away.  Melvin Gordon proved he could handle the workload by rushing for 997 yards and 10 touchdowns before missing basically the last four games due ton injury.

The Chargers have one of the more underrated defenses in the NFL.  They gave up 347 yards per game and 5.6 per play last season, which was right around league average.  But they were much better after rookie Joey Bosa ended his holdout.  Bosa tied for the NFL lead with 11 tackles for loss, plus team-highs in sacks (10.5) and QB hits (21).  Melvin Inrgam remains one of the better DE's in the game.

The Denver Broncos have a great defense once again, but they also have one of the worst QB situations in the NFL.  They desperately wanted Paxton Lynch to win the job in the preseason, but he was awful, so they'll be sticking with Trevor Siemian, who wasn't much better.  He threw 18 touchdowns against 10 interceptions last year for an offense that managed just 20.8 points per game.

The Chargers are 40-22 ATS in their last 62 games as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points.  Los Angeles is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 September games, including 5-0 ATS in their last five Week 1 games.  The road team is 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  The Chargers are 8-2-4 ATS in their last 14 meetings in Denver.  Bet the Chargers Monday.

15* Seahawks/Packers NFL Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 51

The books have set the bar too high on this total in the Seahawks/Packers game in Week 1.  I fully expect more a defensive battle than this whopping 51-point total would indicate.  I think the way these two teams finished the season has this total inflated.

This is especially true for the Packers, who closes last season on a 7-0 run to the OVER.  Their defense was extremely banged up down the stretch, and Aaron Rodgers did a great job winning shootouts week after week.  Now that is fresh in the public's mind, but the fact of the matter is the Packers will be much better defensively now that they are healthy to open 2017.  They allowed just 14.0 points per game in the preseason.

The Seahawks closed last season on a 3-1 run to the over, but they also had key injuries to Earl Thomas and other, and they lost 20-36 to the Falcons in the playoffs.  They will get back to being one of the best defensive teams in the NFL now, especially with the addition of Sheldon Richardson via trade.  They allowed just 14.0 points per game in the preseason.

I think the recent head-to-head history in this series shows that there is value with the UNDER.  The Seahawks and Packers have combined for 48, 44 and 44 points at the end of regulation in their last three meetings.  Neither team has been able to get to 400 yards of offense in any of the last five meetings.  Seattle is 30-12 to the UNDER in its last 42 September road games.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bears +7

The Atlanta Falcons came out of nowhere to go 11-5 during the regular season.  They proceeded to blow out both the Seahawks and Packers before stomping the Patriots 28-3 late in the third quarter of the Super Bowl.  That's where it fell apart as they actually blew that lead and lost in overtime.

It's going to be extremely difficult for the Falcons to get over that loss.  It's usually a good move to fade the Super Bowl loser.  Since 2000, only two teams that lost the Super Bowl actually finished with a better record the next season.  We saw the Panthers fall flat last year after losing to the Broncos in the Super Bowl the previous season, and I think the same fate will follow the Falcons.

But the Falcons enter 2017 way overvalued now after that great season.  They are now being asked to lay 7 points on the road to the Chicago Bears.  They still have plenty of talent, especially offensively, but they did lose coordinator Kyle Shanahan this offseason, and now have a first-time NFL coordinator in Steve Sarkisian.  The defense still has plenty of holes as well after allowing 25.3 points per game 377 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play last year.

Injuries really gave the Bears no chance of having a good season last year during their 3-13 campaign.  But they enter 2017 a lot healthier and should be improved, plus they're flying under the radar, which provides great value against the betting lines.

They should get better QB play after signing Mike Glennon in the offseason.  They have a special young back in Jordan Howard, who rushed for 1,313 yards last year.  They also added some WR talent in Kendall Wright from Tennessee and Markus Wheaton from Pittsburgh, which should help make up for the losses of Alshon Jeffery and Cameron Meredith.  Kevin White is now healthy and ready to show off the talent that made him a first-round pick a couple years back.

John Fox is a defensive guy, and I think he will have the Bears surprising on this side of the ball in 2017 after a mediocre season last year with a defense that gave up 347 yards per game and 5.7 per play, which was right around league average.  They added CB Prince Amukamara, CB Marcus Cooper and S Quintin Demps to shore up their secondary, and all three are expected to start.

The Bears went 3-5 SU but 5-3 ATS at home last year.  They only lost twice by more than a touchdown.  I think they can keep this game close and possibly pull off the upset, especially against a Falcons team that is overvalued and still reeling from their Super Bowl loss.

The Bears were -20 in turnover differential last year, tied for last in the NFL.  These teams are prime bounce-back candidates and fit into a system that I love this week.  Plays on any team (CHICAGO) - team that had turnover margin of -1 /game or worse last season, in conference games are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take the Bears Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Cardinals -1.5

The Arizona Cardinals won 10 games in 2013, 11 games in 2014 and 13 games in 2015 in Bruce Arians' first three seasons on the job.  Expectations were hight last year, but they went 7-8-1 to fall well short of them.  However, there's no question they were much better than their record would indicate.
 
They actually led the NFL in yardage differential, gaining 366.8 yards per game offensively while giving up only 305.2 yards per game defensively, outgaining teams by 61.6 yards per game.  To compare, the Patriots were the second-best team in this department last year at +59.9 and the Falcons (+44.6) were fourth, so they were in some good company.

Five of Arizona's eight losses last season came by a touchdown or less, and they tied with the Seahawks in a game they dominated but should have won.  The Cardinals are prime bounce-back candidates in 2017.  They will have better luck in the health department and win more of their close games.

Arizona finished second in the NFL in total defense last season and led the league with 44 sacks.  The tandem of Chandler Jones and Markus Golden combined for 23.5 of those sacks, and both are back to wreak havoc on opposing offenses.  They also have one of the best secondary's in the league.

Carson Palmer is reportedly in the best shape of his career, and he has David Johnson to lean on, who had over 2,000 yards from scrimmage and 20 total touchdowns last year.  Larry Fitzgerald is still productive, and getting a healthy John Brown back at receiver should make their offense even more explosive.

The Detroit Lions were extremely fortunate to go 9-7 last year and make the playoffs.  They took advantage of an easy schedule and great breaks.  Eight of the Lions' nine wins came by a touchdown or less.  They actually trailed in the fourth quarter in 15 of their 16 regular season games, but Matthew Stafford kept pulling off miracles late.  It's not going to happen again.

I fully expect the Cardinals to have a winning record this season, and Stafford is 5-46 in his career against teams that finish the season with a winning record.  The Lions have a ton of injury issues already heading into Week 1.  OT Taylor Decker, DE Kerry Hyder, DE Brandon Copeland, DE Armonty Bryant and DT Khyri Thornton are all out.  They are missing most of their defensive line, which is bad news for trying to stop a back the caliber of David Johnson.

The Cardinals are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Lions, winning seven of those eight meetings by 7 points or more, and outscoring them by an average of 12.7 points per game.  Roll with the Cardinals Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Jacksonville Jaguars +6

The Jacksonville Jaguars are a team on the rise.  Yes, they went just 3-13 last year, but they were much better than that record would indicate.  They went 2-8 in games decided by a touchdown or less.  So they were way more competitive last season, and they were much closer to an 8-8 team than a 3-13 one.

This is a Jaguars defense that is going to be one of the best in the NFL this season.  They have consistently drafted talent on defense over the last few seasons, and it started showing signs of being a great unit in the second half last year.  Now they are a year older and more experienced on that side of the ball.  This is a defense that will keep them in most ball games.

The defense added CB A.J. Bouye, DE Calais Campbell and SS Barry Church, three projected starters that will only add to a talented group that includes recent first-round draft picks Jalen Ramsey and Myles Jack.  The offense added RB Leonard Fournette and LT Cam Robinson in the first round rounds of the draft this year, and both are expected to start Week 1.

The Houston Texans aren't a team that can be trusted laying this kind of number.  They went 9-7 last year, but all nine of their wins came by single-digits, including eight by a touchdown or less.  They got terrible QB play last year and that's unlikely to change in 2017.  They drafted Deshaun Watson as their QB of the future, but it's going to be Tom Savage taking the snaps in Week 1.

The Jaguars played the Texans tough in both meetings last year, losing 21-24 at home and 20-21 on the road.  I think this one is likely to go down to the wire as well, and they'll be extra motivated to end a 6-game losing streak to the Texans overall in this series.

Jacksonville was -16 in turnover differential last year.  That tends to even itself out over time, and I expect head coach Doug Marrone to emphasize taking care of the football in 2017.  It also sets the Jaguars up for a nice system play for Week 1.

Plays on any team (JACKSONVILLE) - team that had turnover margin of -1 /game or worse last season, in conference games are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take the Jaguars Sunday.

25* NFL Week 1 GAME OF THE YEAR on Tennessee Titans -1.5

The Tennessee Titans are a team on the rise.  They went 9-7 last season and were competitive in every game but one. Six of their seven losses came by single-digits.  They won four of their final five games last year to really carry over some momentum into 2017.

Marcus Mariota took a big step forward last year with 26 touchdowns and nine interceptions.  The running game was one of the best in the NFL at 137 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry behind the two-headed attack of DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry.  The defense was just average, but the Titans made several moves on that side of the ball in the offseason that will have them in the top half of the league this year.

The Oakland Raiders were one of the luckiest teams in the NFL last year.  Give them credit for going 12-4 in the regular season, but they easily could have been 8-8 or worse.  The Raiders went a ridiculous 9-2 in games decided by 8 points or less.  That's not going to happen again.

That record in close games covered up a lot of problems for this team, especially defensively.  The Raiders gave up 24.2 points per game, 370 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  This was one of the worst defenses in the NFL last year, and it's not going to be any better in 2017 as they lost a lot of players on that side of the ball.

This is a revenge game for the Titans, who lost 10-17 at home to the Raiders last year.  They rushed for 181 yards in the loss, but committed three turnovers, which was the difference in the game.  Marcus Mariota will be motivated to redeem himself after throwing two picks in that loss.

Tennessee is 24-11 ATS in its last 35 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less.  The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in the series.  Bet the Titans Sunday.

20* Chiefs/Pats 2017 NFL Season Opener on Kansas City +9

The Kansas City Chiefs just don't get the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.  Andy Reid is doing a tremendous job here just as he did in Philadelphia.  The Chiefs have won at least 9 games in all four of Reid's seasons, and they've gone 43-21 in the regular season during that stretch.

The New England Patriots couldn't possibly be more overvalued heading into 2017.  They won the Super Bowl last year while coming back from 28-3 down to beat the Falcons.  They went 17-2 overall and a ridiculous 16-3 against the spread.  The betting public isn't going to abandon them now after they treated them so well last year.

Now the Patriots open as whopping 9-point favorites over the Chiefs in Week 1.  That's despite the fact that they are missing their best receiver in Julian Edelman, who is out for the season after tearing his ACL in the preseason.  Tom Brady had better chemistry with Edelman than perhaps any other receiver in his career, so that's a big blow.

The Chiefs went 6-2 on the road last season.  They have gone 6-0 ATS in their last six road games overall.  They only lost 20-27 in New England in the 2015-16 playoffs.  They handed the Patriots one of their worst losses of the Belichick era with a 41-14 blowout at home in 2014 as well.  They have outgained the Patriots 821-630 in their last two meetings.

The Patriots did not fare well defensively in the preseason.  They have a lot of issues on that side of the ball.  They gave up 31 points to Jacksonville, 27 to Houston, 28 to Detroit and 40 to the New York Giants.  I know preseason doesn't mean a whole lot, but it is concerning nonetheless.

The Chiefs are the perfect team to back as a big underdog.  They have only lost 5 times by 10-plus points in 67 games under Reid.  They don't beat themselves with turnovers, and they do just enough to keep games close.  I think they'll easily stay within a touchdown of the Patriots and possibly pull off the stunner in Week 1.  Bet the Chiefs Thursday.

25* NFL Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Falcons/Patriots UNDER 58.5

For starters, this 58.5-point total is the highest in Super Bowl history.  That fact alone shows that there is serious value in backing the UNDER.  The betting public is a big factor in this high total because oddsmakers know that the majority are going to back the OVER.  That's why they are forced to set this total as high as they have.

But with the Super Bowl, teams get two full weeks to prepare for one another.  That is a much bigger advantage for the defenses than it is the offenses.  It also can make the offenses a little rusty to start the game, and it will be too late for them to catch up to the defenses to score enough points to top this 58.5-point total.

New England has the best scoring defense in the NFL, giving up just 15.7 points per game on the season.  I realize they faced ordinary offenses for much of the season, but they have gotten better on this side of the ball as the season has progressed.  They have allowed a total of 53 points in their last five games, an average of just 10.6 points per game.

The Falcons have an elite offense, but what gets overlooked about them is how good their defense has played down the stretch.  In fact, the Falcons have allowed 21 or fewer points in six of their last eight games overall. The lone exceptions were the 29 given up to Kansas City in which 9 of those came from their defense and special teams. They held the Saints to 13 points at the end of three quarters before giving up 19 in garbage time in the fourth. Holding the Seahawks to 20 and the Packers to 21 in their last two games is no small feat.

New England is 6-0 UNDER in road games after gaining 300 or more passing yards in their last game over the past two seasons.  The Falcons are 28-12 UNDER in their last 40 games after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games coming in.  Bet the UNDER in Super Bowl 51.

My Top 5 Super Bowl Prop Bets

#5: Mohamed Sanu Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-135)

My theory here is that the Patriots are going to try and take away Julio Jones and the running backs in the passing game as much as possible, which are the Falcons' biggest weapons.  That will leave Mohamed Sanu and Taylor Gabriel open to have big games.  My feeling is that Sanu will have the bigger game.  He has averaged 44 receiving yards per game on the season, so he barely has to go over his season average to cash a winning ticket.  I also like the OVER 4 receptions on Sanu.

#4: No Defensive or Special Teams TD (-200)

The Patriots and Falcons have combined for just 1 special teams TD all season.  That was Dion Lewis on a kickoff return against the Texans in the Division Round.  The Falcons haven't scored a special teams touchdown this year.  And I don't see many turnovers in this game.  Matt Ryan has only thrown 7 interceptions in 18 games, while Tom Brady has only thrown 4 interceptions in 14 games.  I'm willing to lay 2/1 odds that there won't be a defensive or special teams TD in the Super Bowl.

#3: Atlanta More Penalty Yards (-125)

This is a prop that has to do with the Patriots experience in these big games and the Falcons inexperience.  The Patriots won't make many mistakes in Tom Brady's 7th appearance in the Super Bowl.   The Falcons are likely to be antsy especially in the early going as this will be just their 2nd trip to the Super Bowl and 1st for most of their players.  The Patriots were the 5th-least penalized team in the NFL this season.  The Falcons were the 13th-least penalized team.  I think this is a very fair price having to lay only -125 that the Falcons will finish with more penalty yards than the Patriots.

#2: Yardage of Shortest TD Scored UNDER 1.5 Yards (-150)

For starters, the 58.5-point total is the highest in Super Bowl history.  That means there's expected to be a lot of points.  And with more opportunities for touchdowns, there's a good chance one of these teams scores from the 1-yard line.  Keep in mind that a pass interference penalty in the end zone puts the ball at the 1-yard line.  I think that is a very likely scenario where we get a pass interference penalty in the end zone.  And LaGarrette Blount and Devonte Freeman score a ton of touchdowns and rarely get stopped from the 1.  Blount has scored 19 touchdowns and Freeman has scored 14.  Tom Brady is one of the best in the business with the QB sneak, too.

#1: Total First Downs Made: Falcons +1 (-135)

The Falcons have the best offense in the NFL so the fact that they are an underdog to get more first downs makes no sense to me.  This is a Top-10 offense all time.  The Falcons average 34 points and 420 yards per game.  They also average 24.3 first downs per game.  The Patriots average 22.1 first downs, so the Falcons average more than 2 more first downs per game than the Pats on the season.  The way the Pats play defense, they are going to force the Falcons to try and beat them with underneath stuff.  They aren't going to let Julio Jones get over the top for big plays.  Matt Ryan will take what the defense gives him and methodically move the ball down the field while racking up first downs.  The Patriots will also have plenty of success moving the ball against the Falcons, but I think they are more likely to get big plays that will help limit their first downs.

20* Steelers/Patriots AFC No-Brainer on Pittsburgh +6

The Steelers have made me a lot of money down the stretch as they’ve consistently been undervalued, and I’m not about to buck them now. I think they are once again showing great value in the AFC Championship Game as 6-point underdogs to the New England Patriots.

Pittsburgh has now gone 9-0 SU & 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine games overall. Not only have the Steelers been winning on the scoreboard, they’ve been dominating the box scores as well, which is the sign of a legitimate team. They have actually outgained 11 of their last 12 opponents which dates back to their 16-27 loss to the Patriots. The only exception was against Cleveland in Week 17 where they rested their starters with nothing to play for.

And that loss to the Patriots was much closer than the final score. The Steelers outgained them 375 to 362 for the game. Keep in mind that the Steelers were playing without Ben Roethlisberger in that game, and having him back healthy is going to make all the difference in the rematch, as we’ve seen down the stretch during this nine-game winning streak.  The Patriots also had Rob Gronkowski in that game.

I think the Patriots are one of the most overvalued teams in the NFL. Tom Brady is having a quality season, but he was not sharp at all against the Texans as he went 18-of-38 passing and threw two interceptions. The problem was that the Texans have one of the worst offenses in the NFL and couldn’t take advantage. The Patriots won’t have that luxury this week.

One of the most common stats out there is that the Patriots lead the NFL in scoring defense. Well, that stat is fraudulent. That’s because the Patriots faced the league’s 32nd-ranked slate of offenses in the NFL this season. They played terrible offenses all season, and didn’t have to face the Steelers with Roethlisberger when they played them. 

The only good quarterback they've faced down the stretch is Russell Wilson, and the Patriots lost to the Seahawks at home while giving up 31 points.  Wilson threw for 348 yards and three touchdowns in that game.  Roethlisberger only ranks 11th in QB rating this season, but he's actually the highest-rated passer that the Patriots will have played against all season!

Now the Patriots will be up against a Pittsburgh offense that has put up 24 or more points in nine of their last 10 games overall.  The lone exception was the 18-16 win at Kansas City last week.  But the Steelers should have scored more as they racked up 389 total yards but were held to six field goals.  They outgained the Chiefs by 162 yards in that contest and clearly should have won by more.  But the fact that the final score was close I think is also keeping the Steelers undervalued here.

One of the most underrated stats about the Steelers has been their defense, which has been dominant in the second half of the season. They have given up just 16.6 points per game during their nine-game winning streak. The difference has been inserting James Harrison into the starting lineup, and getting a healthy Bud Dupree back. The Steelers now have the best pass rush of any team left in the playoffs, which is the key to stopping the Patriots.

Pittsburgh is 27-13 ATS in its last 40 games when revenging a home loss vs. opponent. The Steelers are 56-27 ATS in their last 83 games vs. excellent passing teams that average 7 or more yards per attempt. Pittsburgh is 39-19 ATS in its last 58 games vs. a team with a winning percentage great than 75%. The Steelers are 21-7-2 ATS in their last 30 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Pittsburgh is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games. The underdog is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

15* Packers/Falcons NFC ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta -4

I was on the Falcons last week and I'm on them again this week. They delivered with a 36-20 win over the Seahawks in a game they dominated. They racked up 422 total yards on the Seahawks while limiting them to just 309, outgaining them by 113 yards for the game.

The Falcons are legitimately probably the best team in the NFL when you look at the numbers. They lead the NFL in yards per play differential. They average 6.7 yards per play on offense and give up 5.6 per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.1 yards per play. They clearly have the best offense in the NFL, and it’s not really even been close.

But the promising thing about the Falcons is the fact that they’ve allowed 20 or fewer points in five of their last seven games overall. The only exceptions were the 29 points given up to the Chiefs in which 9 of those were scored by their defense and special teams. And they had held the Saints to 13 points through three quarters before giving up 19 points in garbage time in the fourth with the game already decided.

The Packers have been clicking offensively as well and will get their points, but they have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. They gave up 31 points and 429 yards to the Cowboys last week. They are now allowing 28.6 points per game, 393 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play on the road this season. The Falcons will expose this D more than it has been all season.

The first meeting this season was a 33-32 shootout in favor of the Falcons. But Atlanta played better than the final score showed. It actually held the Packers to just 331 total yards in that victory, which wouldn’t usually lead to 32 points. Matt Ryan did whatever he wanted to, completing 28 of 35 passes for 288 yards and three touchdowns in the win. Keep in mind that Julio Jones was banged up in that game, and Tevin Coleman didn’t even play.

The Packers are dealing with even more injuries this week.  Not only is Jordy Nelson not expected to play, but Davante Adams has a bum ankle, and Geronimo Allison has a hamstring injury.  Nelson and Adams have combined for 26 of Aaron Rodgers' 40 touchdown passes this season.  Defensively, the Packers were already missing several key players in the secondary, but now both CB Quinten Rollins and S Morgan Burnett are questionable with injuries.  Sooner or later, these injuries will catch up to them, and I think that will happen this week.

Plays against road teams (GREEN BAY) – off one or more straight overs against opponent off six or more consecutive overs are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS since 1983. Atlanta is 6-0 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards per play in two consecutive games over the last two seasons. The Packers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.

It’s been a great run for the Packers, but I think they’re simply out of gas now.  They don't have much left in the tank to give, especially with all the injuries.  The Falcons are rested and ready to go after getting a bye in the wild card round.  And they haven't had to do any traveling as their last road game was on December 24th.  They've basically been in Atlanta for an entire month.  Take the Falcons Sunday.

25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas Cowboys -4

The Cowboys were one of the most underrated teams in the NFL for much of the season. They went 13-3 SU & 10-6 ATS and opened the season with 10 straight games without a loss against the spread. However, they then became overvalued and were great fade material down the stretch. I took advantage and went against them routinely, and they closed just 1-5 ATS in their final six games.

Because of that poor finish ATS, I believe the Cowboys are now undervalued heading into the playoffs. And while I’ve been riding the Packers religiously with a ton of success during their 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS run, I’m certain they are now overvalued and it’s time to fade them. This line should be closer to a touchdown in my opinion.

The Cowboys have had two weeks off to get healthy, plus they rested many starters in Week 17, so they’ll be ready to go. The Packers have gone through a grueling stretch with balls to the wall just to get in to the playoffs. And the injuries are now starting to take their toll. Both Jordy Nelson and Ty Montgomery, two of their biggest weapons on offense, were hurt in the win over the Giants. Nelson is doubtful this week, while Montgomery is questionable. Not to mention, the Packers have had a depleted secondary all season.

The Cowboys have the type of offense that can exploit a weak Green Bay defense. They rank 5th in the NFL in total offense at 376.7 yards per game. They are extremely balanced as they rank 2nd in the NFL in rushing at 149.8 yards per game, and they complete 67.3% of their passes while averaging 7.5 yards per attempt through the air. They are virtually unstoppable on offense.

That was clearly on display in their first meeting with the Packers this season. They went into Lambeau Field and won 30-16 as 5-point underdogs. They racked up 424 total yards on the suspect Packers’ defense, including 191 rushing and 233 passing. Ezekiel Elliott rushed for 157 yards on 28 carries, while Dak Prescott threw for 247 yards and three touchdowns with an interception.

I think the Cowboys are going to be able to score at will against a Green Bay defense that gives up 6.1 yards per play this season, which is one of the worst marks in the NFL. And the Packers have been especially poor defensively on the road, giving up 28.2 points per game, 388.6 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play. They wore down in their first meeting with the Cowboys, and that’s going to happen again with the way Dallas can possess the ball, averaging nearly 32 possession minutes per game.

Dallas is 33-17 ATS in its last 50 games off a loss by 14 points or more. Plays on favorites (DALLAS) – after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games, with a winning record in the second half of the season are 44-18 (71%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays on home teams (DALLAS) – after a loss by 14 or more points against opponent after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games are 50-22 (69.4%) ATS since 1983. The home team is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings. The Packers are 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to Dallas.  Bet the Cowboys Sunday.

15* Texans/Patriots AFC ANNIHILATOR on Houston +16

By no means do I think the Texans will win this game, but 16 points is a ton. I think they can stay within the number and take this game down to the wire. There are numerous reasons they should be able to be competitive, and it starts with their defense.

The Texans actually ranked No. 1 in the NFL in total defense this season. They give up just 295.5 yards per game on the season, including 220.8 yards per game in their last four contest. They have one of the most underrated secondary’s in the NFL, ranking 2nd against the pass at 201.6 yards per game. Their defensive backs stick to receivers like glue, and they’re getting a solid pass rush led by Jadeveon Clowney. They certainly have what it takes to slow down Tom Brady and company.

A benching may be just what Brock Osweiler needed. He responded with one of his best games of the season against the Raiders. Osweiler finished 14 of 25 passing for 168 yards and a touchdown without an interception. By no means is he a top-tier quarterback now, but I think he can make enough plays to keep them in the game. And Lamar Miller is back healthy now, rushing for 73 yards and a score against the Raiders.

You’re going to hear this stat plenty leading up to this game. The Patriots have outscored the Texans 54-6 in their two meetings over the past two seasons. But the Texans’ defense actually played well in both games, limiting the Patriots to just 282 and 313 total yards. And they gave away the game earlier this season in a 27-0 loss by fumbling twice on special teams, turning the ball over three times in all. They actually outgained the Patriots 284-282 in that contest.

The Patriots are about as overvalued as they’ve been at any point this season. That’s because they come in to this game on a 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS run, including five straight covers. But the competition has been very suspect as they’ve faced the 49ers, Jets (twice), Rams, Ravens, Broncos and Dolphins. Only one of those teams made the playoffs, and that was a Miami squad that had nothing to play for against the Patriots in Week 17.

This will now be a step up in class for the Patriots against a Texans team playing their best football of the season. Houston has won four of its last five games overall with the only loss coming in a meaningless Week 17 game against Tennessee. The Texans have outgained their last four opponents by a combined 334 yards, or by an average of 83.5 yards per game.

Plays against favorites who score 27 or more points per game, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.  Roll with the Texans Saturday.

20* Seahawks/Falcons NFC No-Brainer on Atlanta -5

Obviously both teams are going to be motivated here. But I think the Falcons have the extra motivation after the way they lost in Seattle earlier this season, 24-26. The refs missed a pass interference call on Richard Sherman that would have set the Falcons up for a game-winning field goal. And that loss has left a sour taste in the Falcons’ mouths that they would love to wash out here.

To be honest, I think the Falcons are the best team in the NFL. They rank 1st in the league in yards per play differential, outgaining teams by 1.1 yards per play. They average 6.7 yards per play on offense and give up 5.6 per play on defense. They are also 4th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 44.6 yards per game. This team just doesn’t get the same kind of respect as other top teams like the Cowboys and Patriots.

The Falcons rank 1st in the NFL in scoring offense, averaging 33.7 points per game. They are also 2nd in total offense at 415.8 yards per game. They have so many weapons this year that they are just so tough to tame. Julio Jones has been as efficient as ever, Taylor Gabriel and Mohamed Sanu are two of the most underrated receivers in the game, and Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman can both do it all rushing and receiving. Not to mention, center Alex Mack was a huge addition to this offensive line and has the boys up front playing as well as they have in a long time.

Certainly the Falcons don’t have a top defense, but they aren’t as bad on that side of the ball as they’re made out to be. They give up points and yards because opponents are consistently playing from behind. But they were much better down the stretch, giving up 19 or fewer points in four of their final six games. And the lone exceptions were the 29 points given up to the Chiefs in which 9 of those came from KC’s defense and special teams. And they allowed 32 to the Saints in the finale, but they had held them to only 13 points until fourth quarter garbage time with the game already decided.

The Seahawks were a great home team this year, but it has been a different story on the road. They are just 3-4-1 SU & 3-5 ATS in all road games this year. Their offense was abysmal on the road this season, averaging just 15.9 points per game. They lost 10-38 at Green Bay, 5-14 at Tampa Bay, 20-25 at New Orleans and 3-9 at Los Angeles. And they were fortunate to win 25-23 at San Francisco in Week 17.

Teams have been able to take advantage of the absence of Earl Thomas down the stretch. The Packers put up 38 points on the Seahawks, the Cardinals put up 34, and the 49ers even had some success with 23 points. You can just imagine what the best offense in the NFL is going to do against this Seattle defense this week. Matt Ryan threw for 335 yards and three touchdowns on this Seattle defense in the first meeting, and that was with Thomas in the lineup.

Seattle is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 road games after allowing 6 points or fewer last game. Atlanta is 9-2 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards per play in its previous game over the last two seasons. The Seahawks are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win. The Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.  Take the Falcons Saturday.

15* Dolphins/Steelers NFL Sunday No-Brainer on Pittsburgh -10

The Steelers have really turned it on since their four-game losing streak midseason. They have now won seven straight games while going 5-1-1 ATS in the process. They outgained nine straight opponents before resting many of their starters last week against the Browns in a meaningless contest.

The Dolphins might be the most overrated team in the NFL. Yes, their record shows 10-6, but this is more like a 6-10 team when you look at the numbers. They have been outgained in five of their last six games. The Dolphins rank 29th in yardage differential on the season, getting outgained by 49.8 yards per game. Only the Rams, Browns and 49ers have been worse, so they are in some poor company.

This game will be a complete reversal of the first time these teams played back in October. In that game, Ben Roethlisberger was banged up. Now it’s the Dolphins with a banged-up starting quarterback in Ryan Tannehill, meaning Matt Moore will get the nod in the rematch. And the Dolphins could be missing as many as six players who played in that first meeting with the Steelers who are likely to be unavailable this time around, including two safeties on defense.

This game fits one of my favorite playoff systems. It involves betting on teams who played the tougher schedule during the regular season. Wild card teams who played the tougher schedule are 40-16 SU & 40-15-1 ATS over the last 14 seasons since the wild card system was adopted. When there is a difference of 10 or more in strength of schedule, the teams who played the tougher schedule are 23-4 SU & 22-4-1 ATS. The Steelers played the 11th-toughest schedule this season, while the Dolphins played the 27th.

The Dolphins have one of the worst defenses in the league. They rank 30th in rushing defense at 140 yards per game and dead last at 4.8 yards per carry. They allow 383 total yards per game and 5.8 per play. Look for Le’Veon Bell to have a field day against the Dolphins here. The Steelers have averaged 135 rushing yards per game in their last seven contests.  Like Bell, Antonio Brown and Big Ben also rested last week, so they should come in firing on all cylinders and ready to go.

While the Steelers’ offense gets all the credit, it’s the improvement from the defense that makes this team a real Super Bowl contender. The Steelers only give up 20.4 points per game this season. They have allowed 20 or fewer points in five of their last seven games overall. And I think you can throw out the Cleveland game at the end in which they gave up 24 points because they weren’t interested.

Miami is 5-18 ATS in its last 23 games after allowing 400 or more total yards in its previous game. Pittsburgh is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games off a game where both teams score 24 or more points. Mike Tomlin is 9-1 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points as the coach of the Steelers. Pittsburgh is 7-0 ATS vs. poor defensive teams who allow 350 or more yards per game in the second half of the season over the last two years. The Steelers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven playoff home games. The Dolphins are 0-4 ATS in their last four playoff games.

Many bettors are going to see the Dolphins catching double-digits with this 10-point spread and just jump on them thinking there's value.  But there's a lot of good reasons why they are double-digit dogs.  And keep in mind, the last five double-digit favorites in the playoffs are a perfect 5-0 ATS.  These playoff teams are always focused, so you don't have to worry about letdowns.  And Pittsburgh wants its revenge from that earlier loss to Miami.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

20* NFL Wild Card GAME OF THE WEEK on Oakland Raiders +4

The Houston Texans won the worst division in the NFL in the AFC South for a second consecutive season. Now they are getting some big-time line respect from the books in the wild card round, and I don’t think it’s warranted. I believe there to be a lot of value here with the Raiders as 4-point underdogs.

Just think back to the regular season meeting when the Raiders were 6.5-point favorites over the Texans in Mexico City and won 27-20. There has been a 10.5-point adjustment since that night in terms of the point spread, and that fact alone shows that there is value with the Raiders.

Of course, I realize Derek Carr is now out for the season, so that makes a difference. But I don’t think it is worth as much as oddsmakers are adjusting for. And it’s not like the quarterback situation in Oakland with Connor Cook starting is that much worse off than the one in Houston.  Cook actually played well against Denver's #1 pass defense last week, completing 14-of-21 passes for 150 yards with one touchdown and one interception.

The Texans are giving Brock Osweiler the start. He was benched in the Jacksonville game in Week 15 in favor of Tom Savage. Savage led them to a comeback 21-20 win, and then a 12-10 win over Cincinnati in Week 16 that clinched the division. Savage started against the Titans in Week 17, but was knocked out of the game with a concussion.

It’s well documented that Osweiler has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL this season. He ranks 29th out of 30 quarterbacks in QBR, with only Ryan Fitzpatrick being worse.  He is completing just 59 percent of his passes with 15 touchdowns and 16 interceptions while averaging a measly 5.8 yards per attempt. He’s the reason the Texans rank just 29th in total offense at 314.7 yards per game, and 29th in passing offense at 198.5 yards per game.

I think that bad showing against the Broncos on the road has the Raiders undervalued here. They were shell-shocked once McGloin got injured. But now they’ve got a full week to get ready. And this is a team that went 12-4 this season against the fourth-toughest schedule in the league. I think that is being discounted way too much here.

One of my favorite wild card round systems involves backing teams that played the tougher schedule in the Sagarin ratings. Teams that played the tougher schedule have gone 40-16 SU & 40-15-1 ATS in the wild card round in the last 14 seasons. The Raiders played the 4th-toughest schedule, while the Texans played the 18th. When there is a 10 or more SOS difference between them, the team that played the tougher schedule has gone 23-4 SU & 22-4-1 ATS, and this matchup fits that criteria.

The Raiders are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games. Oakland is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 games following an ATS loss. The Texans are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall. Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a winning record. Oakland is 8-1 ATS off a loss by 14 points or more over the last three seasons.  Bet the Raiders Saturday.

15* Packers/Lions NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Green Bay -3

Aaron Rodgers is oh-so-close to coming through on his prediction that the Packers would run the table after their 4-6 start to the season.  They have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS since, with their only non-cover coming against Chicago after they blew a late 17-point lead.  The other four wins have all come by 8 points or more.

I'm going to back Rodgers and company to finish the job they started.  They have all the momentum in the world right now, and I just don't think the Detroit Lions are the type of team that can stop them.  Especially with the way the Lions are playing right now.  I realize that we are paying a premium with the Packers here as 3-point road favorites, but I don't think it is going to matter.

Rodgers is the hottest quarterback in the NFL right now.  He has thrown 14 touchdown passes without an interception in the past six games.  He carved up a great Minnesota defense last week for 347 passing yards and four touchdowns, while adding a rushing score in the 38-25 victory.  Rodgers threw four touchdown passes in the 34-27 win over the Lions in Week 3 and has consistently torched them throughout his career.  Keep in mind the Packers led that game 31-3 before calling off the dogs.

It's a minor miracle the Lions even have a chance to win their division.  They have actually trailed in the 4th quarter in 14 of their 15 games this season, and they only have nine wins because Matthew Stafford has an NFL record eight fourth-quarter comeback victories this season.  It was obvious their luck would run out, and it clearly has.

The Lions have been thoroughly outplayed in their last two games.  They lost 6-17 to the Giants and 21-42 to the Cowboys the last two weeks.  Stafford went a combined 71-of-120 passing (59.2%) with four interceptions in his last three games overall.  This came after he suffered ligament damage to his right middle finger in the 20-17 win over Chicago three weeks ago.  He hasn't been the same since.

And Stafford is getting a lot of love lately, but he is just 4-42 in his career against teams that finished the season with a winning record.  And Rodgers should torch a Lions secondary that ranks 32nd against the pass according to Pro Football Outsiders.  The Lions have allowed 73% completions to opposing quarterbacks on the season.  They've given up 29 touchdown passes while registering just 20 sacks, so their pass rush is an issue, too.  And star CB Darius Slay missed last week's game due to injury and is questionable to return this week.

The schedule makers did the Lions no favors here, either.  The Lions had to play the Cowboys on Monday Night Football last week, while the Packers played the Vikings on Saturday.  So the Packers will essentially have two more days to get ready for this game than the Lions, who put a lot into that MNF game to try and clinch a playoff spot.  This is a very tough situation for the Lions here working on a short week with all of their injuries.

Green Bay is 9-1 ATS off a division game over the last two seasons.  Plays on road teams (GREEN BAY) - after covering the spread in three out of their last four games, in the last two weeks of the regular season are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Packers are 23-11 ATS in their last 34 vs. NFC North opponents.  The favorite is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Green Bay is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 trips to Detroit.  Roll with the Packers Sunday.

20* NFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Falcons -7

The Atlanta Falcons are re-energized now after the Seahawks were upset by the Cardinals last week.  Now all the Falcons have to do is win this week against the Saints and they'll get the No. 2 seed and first-round bye.  They will certainly be locked in and focused to finish the job that they started and to have next week off.

The Falcons are playing better than anyone in the NFL right now.  They have won their last three games by an average of 24 points per game.  They have the league's top-ranked offense at 34 points and 413 yards per game on average.  What makes those numbers so impressive is that they've faced the league's toughest schedule in terms of opposing defenses played.

While the offense gets all the credit, and rightfully so, the defense is playing their best football of the season right now. The Falcons have allowed 19 or fewer points in four of their last five games overall, which is why they are blowing teams out on the regular.

I think the fact that the Saints haven't quit and have won their last two games over the Cardinals and Bucs the past two weeks is providing some line value here.  But we saw what happened earlier this season when these teams met in New Orleans.  The Falcons won that game 45-32 while racking up 442 total yards.  They can name their score on this awful Saints defense.

You could make the argument that the Falcons are the best team in the NFL.  They rank 1st in yards per play differential, outgaining teams by 1.1 yards per play every time they snap the football.  The second-best mark in the league is 0.6 yards per play, which is a huge gap.

Atlanta is 7-1 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards per play in its previous game this season.  The Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Atlanta is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. NFC South foes.  The Saints are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games in Week 17.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

20* AFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Jacksonville Jaguars +4.5

The Jacksonville Jaguars showed me a lot last week in their 38-17 win over the Tennessee Titans.  Yes, Marcus Mariota was knocked out, but that game was over by the time he departed.  They outgained the Titans by 152 yards. What makes the win even more impressive is that the Titans needed it to keep their playoff hopes alive, and the Jaguars stepped up to the plate and denied them.

Obviously, the Jaguars should have made the switch to interim coach Doug Marrone a lot sooner.  He has previous head coaching experience in Buffalo and actually did a great job there.  The Jaguars have suffered seven losses by a TD or less this season, so they are way better than their record, but Gus Bradley just wasn't getting it done late in games.

Blake Bortles is coming off his best game of the season, and should have another huge game against this awful Colts secondary.  He completed 26-of-38 passes for 325 yards with a touchdown and no picks against Tennessee.  In their 30-27 win over the Colts in London, Bortles threw for 207 yards and two touchdowns without a pick.  And the Jaguars beat the Colts 51-16 in their final meeting last year, throwing for 250 yards and three scores with zero INTs.

The Colts are in an awful spot here mentally.  They just had their dream-crushing loss to the Oakland Raiders last week, falling 25-33.  That loss officially eliminated them from the playoffs.  Now the quotes coming from the players and coaches are talking about how it was a lost season, and they are already looking ahead to next year.  They could care less about beating the Jaguars here after just getting eliminated from the playoffs last week.

Meanwhile, the Jaguars are a very young team with some very nice pieces moving forward.  They will relish this opportunity to pull the season sweep of their division rivals, who have dominated this division for years.  There's no question in my mind that we are getting the more motivated team.  I'm also pretty sure we are getting the better team, and that team is catching 4.5 points.

The Jaguars actually rank 12th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 8.4 yards per game.  They have been led by a defense that ranks 4th in the NFL in giving up just 317.5 yards per game.  The Colts rank 22nd in yardage differential, getting outgained by 14.0 yards per game.  Their defense ranks 28th in the NFL in giving up 377.1 yards per game.  They just allowed 459 total yards to the Raiders last week in a game they needed to win.

Indianapolis is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 home games when revenging a close loss by 7 points or less.  Indianapolis is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games after allowing more than 30 points in its previous game.  Take the Jaguars Sunday.

25* Lions/Cowboys MNF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on OVER 44.5

I think the best bet on this game is the OVER, and I'm clearly not the only one as this total has been bet up from 41.5 to 44.5 already.  But I still don't think it's enough.  These teams will be playing in perfect conditions inside AT&T Stadium, so scoring will be plentiful.  And I think these are two of the most overrated defenses in the NFL.

The only reason the Cowboys have decent defensive numbers is because they have controlled the time of possession with their dominant offense.  But the Cowboys give up 5.6 yards per play this season, which is 19th in the NFL.  The Lions give up 5.8 yards per play, which is 25th in the NFL.  These aren't good defenses.

The Lions don't have a good running game, but Stafford will be primed for a huge day against a Cowboys defense that gives up 68.4 percent completions, 265 passing yards per game and 6.8 yards per attempt this season.  The Cowboys ranks 2nd in rushing offense at 154.5 yards per game, and they should have a huge day on the ground against a Lions defense that gives up 4.2 yards per carry, which ranks tied for 16th in the NFL.

The Lions have been padding their stats defensively against some awful quarterbacks.  In their last 11 games, they have faced Brian Hoyer, Carson Wentz, Case Keenum, Kirk Cousins, Brock Osweiler, Sam Bradford (twice), Blake Bortles, Drew Brees, Matt Barkley and Eli Manning.  Only two of those guys are having good seasons in Cousins and Brees.  The Lions haven't seen an offense as potent as the Cowboys, which averages 26.1 points per game overall, including 27.3 points per game at home.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in this series.  We've seen 44 or more combined points in all six meetings.  The Cowboys and Lions are averaging 58.0 combined points in those six contests, which is nearly 14 points more than this posted total.  A big reason for that is because both of these teams play in domes, so the conditions are always perfect.

Dallas is 46-19 OVER in its last 65 home games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better.   I think we're getting a ton of value here on the OVER because the Lions have gone under the total in eight straight, while the Cowboys have gone under in three straight coming in.  The oddsmakers have over-adjusted for it. We'll see a shootout here Monday night.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Broncos/Chiefs NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Denver +3

The Chiefs are one of the most fraudulent teams in the NFL. They have the raw numbers of a team that should be 4-10 instead of 10-4. They rank 29th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by 43.7 yards per game. Only the Rams, Browns and 49ers have been worse than them in this category, so they are in some pretty terrible company.

The Chiefs have been outgained in six of their last seven games overall. They have been outgained by a total of 619 yards in their last seven games. One of those was their fluke 30-27 (OT) win at Denver. They were outgianed by 191 yards by the Broncos in that contest. Their offense averaged just 3.3 yards per play while the Broncos averaged 6.7 yards per play in that contest. There’s no way the Chiefs should have won that game.

Now the Broncos are going to be out for revenge here in the rematch less than a month later. They are playing for their season right now as they have to win out to have a chance to make the playoffs. They will be the more motivated team as a result, and there’s no question they are the better team in my mind when you look at the numbers.

While the Chiefs have one of the worst offenses in the NFL, the Broncos have arguably the best defense. They rank 2nd in total defense at 310.9 yards per game and 1st in passing defense at 183.0 yards per game. They are also 4th in scoring defense at 18.4 points per game allowed. The Chiefs certainly don’t have the playmakers to scare them here.

The Chiefs have no home-field advantage. They are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games. That includes recent upset losses to the Bucs as 7-point home favorites and the Titans as 6-point home favorites. And home-field has meant nothing in this series, either. The road team is 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. The Broncos are 6-1 ATS int heir last seven trips to Kansas City.

Denver is 19-8 ATS in its last 27 games when revenging a close loss against an opponent by 3 points or less. It is coming back to win 27.4 to 21.7 on average in this spot. The Broncos are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up loss. The Chiefs are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.  Take the Broncos Sunday.

20* Ravens/Steelers Christmas Day No-Brainer on Pittsburgh -5.5

I’ve been riding the Steelers with a ton of success in recent weeks and I’m going to continue to do so this week. Once again I believe they are being under-priced here by oddsmakers as only 5.5-point home favorites. They are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall, and I have backed them in all five games.

The Steelers may be the best team in the NFL. They have outgained eight straight opponents, which is the sign of a dominant team. They have outgained their last five opponents during their winning streak by a combined 663 yards, which is an average of 132.6 yards per game. No team has been better than them during this stretch.

I think the fact that the game against the Bengals last week was close is providing some line value here. But that game wasn’t nearly as close as the final of 24-20 showed. The Steelers outgained the Bengals by 160 yards and should have won by more, but they were held to six field goals to start the game before finally getting into the end zone. It’s unlike them to struggle in the red zone like that, and I don’t expect it to happen again this week.

Mike Tomlin is 57-21 all-time at Heinz Field, and Ben Roethlisberger has thrown 27 touchdowns and only six interceptions in his last eight home games. The Steelers are 4-2 at home this season, winning by 8.2 points per game. One of their losses came against the Patriots without Roethlisberger, and the other came against the Cowboys in a fluky result that was lost when they went 0-for-4 on 2-point conversions.

Everyone knows that the Steelers have one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, but what is getting overlooked is how good this defense is playing. The Steelers are only allowing 14.0 points per game in their last five contests. They are also giving up just 250.0 total yards per game in their last five. They haven’t allowed more than 91 rushing yards in any of those five games, and they have held opponents to 219 passing yards or fewer in all five as well. This defense is playing as well as any in the NFL.

The Ravens are just 2-4 SU & 1-4-1 ATS on the road this season. Their offense is scoring just 18.8 points per game and averaging 313 yards per game on the road. They have lost each of their last four road games with a 4-point loss to the Giants, an 8-point loss to the Jets, a 10-point loss to the Cowboys and a 7-point loss to the Patriots. So, they’ve struggled to even stay within a touchdown of teams on the road.

Pittsburgh wants revenge badly from losing four straight meetings with the Ravens. But that is skewed a bit because of injuries to the Steelers. Ben Roethlisberger was a game-time decision in their 14-21 loss to the Ravens earlier this season. He was rusty, and the Ravens scored on a punt block TD and a 95-yard TD. It was the definition of a fluky result.

In another loss Michael Vick was their starting quarterback, and in another loss they had to pick up a running back off the streets on game week. The key for me is that the Steelers are a much different team now than when they played back on November 6th. They are hitting on all cylinders and playing their best football of the season. They are also as healthy as they have been all year.

The Ravens are dealing with some key injuries right now, including one to cornerback Jimmy Smith. He missed last week’s game against the Eagles and it’s unlikely he returns this week. He is their top cover corner, and it’s not even close. He has had success in the past against Antonio Brown, too, and if he doesn’t play it would be a massive loss for the Ravens.

The Steelers thrive this time of year, going 13-3 ATS in their last 16 December games, including 9-1 ATS in their last 10. The Ravens are just 6-17 ATS in their last 23 December games. Baltimore is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games. The home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.

But my favorite trend of all is that the Steelers are a perfect 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games when they are playing with same-season division revenge.  They have bounced back to cover the spread each of the last 11 times they have lost to an AFC North opponent in their first meeting of the season.  That's the sign of a resilient team, and I expect a huge effort from Pittsburgh here Sunday with the AFC North title at stake.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

20* Bengals/Texans AFC Saturday Night BAILOUT on Houston +1

The Texans have plenty of motivation right now. If they win out they will win the division, and they even have a shot at a wild card if they don’t win out. But either way they should be focused despite the fact that they could lose this game and beat the Titans next week and win the division as well.

Houston beat Indianapolis 22-17 on the road two weeks ago, and showed a lot of heart in fighting back from a 13-0 deficit to beat the Jaguars last week. Brock Osweiler single-handedly dug them that 13-0 deficit with two interceptions in his own territory. Then he was replaced by Tom Savage, and the crowd erupted in cheers.

Savage fed off of the momentum and led the Texans back to a 21-20 victory. He finished 23 of 36 for 260 yards without an interception. And this game wasn’t nearly as close as the final score showed. The Texans outgained the Jaguars by 237 yards and held them to just 150 yards of total offense.

Now Savage is going to start again this week, and I think he can only be an upgrade over Osweiler, who the Texans have been winning in spite of. And the Texans are 6-1 at home this season with their only loss coming to the Chargers a few weeks back, who were coming off their bye week, while the Texans were in a bad spot coming off a Monday Night Football game in Mexico City.

I really question Cincinnati’s motivation this week. The Bengals have already been eliminated from the playoffs with their heartbreaking loss to the Steelers last week. They led that game 20-6, but they were shut out in the second half and lost 20-24. Off such an emotional loss to their biggest rivals, and with the Ravens on deck, I don’t expect the Bengals to show up at all this week.  And they were outgained by 160 yards by the Steelers last week, so it wasn't as close as the final score.

The Bengals have some injury issues right now in which they could be extra cautious with given their standing. Tight end Tyler Eifert is out with a back injury, while LB Vontaze Burfict is out with a concussion.  WR AJ Green and RB Jeremy Hill are probable, but nowhere near 100%.  Don't be surprised if the Bengals are cautious with these two given they have nothing to play for.

The reason the Texans have been able to overcome their offensive woes this season for an 8-6 record is because of their defense, which now ranks 1st in the NFL in allowing just 306.5 yards per game. Most people don’t give this defense the credit it deserves because JJ Watt is out, but they really haven’t missed a beat. And as long as Tom Savage takes care of the ball better than Osweiler did before him, they will be just fine.

Cincinnati is 1-7 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. The Bengals are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. a team with a winning record. Cincinnati is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games. The Texans are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.  Bet the Texans Saturday.

15* Giants/Eagles NFC East ANNIHILATOR on New York -1.5

I simply trust the New York Giants more in this spot.  They have a lot more to play for right now.  They will be super motivated to punch their tickets to the playoffs with a win Thursday night.  It would be the first time in five seasons that they would make the postseason, so they couldn't possibly be more motivated right now.

For whatever reason, the Giants just don't get the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.  They have gone 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  I think it's because the betting public doesn't flock to poor offensive teams like the Giants.  But defense wins championships as we've seen, and the Giants have won of the best in the business.

The Giants rank 3rd in the NFL in scoring defense, giving up just 17.9 points per game on the season.  They have held the Cowboys and Lions, two likely playoff teams, to a total of 13 points the past two weeks.  This defense just keeps getting better as the season has gone on.

The Eagles are a mess right now as they've lost seven of their last eight games overall.  Carson Wentz now has the second-worst passer rating in the NFL ahead of only Jared Goff.  And the defense has been atrocious, giving up at least 26 points in five straight and seven of their last eight contests.  The Giants should get their offense going this week, too.

New York is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 road games coming off two consecutive home wins.  Plays on road teams (NY GIANTS) - after covering the spread in three out of their last four games, in the last two weeks of the regular season are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Giants Thursday.

20* Panthers/Redskins ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Carolina +6.5

This line seems like a classic overreaction from the betting public. They see a team like Washington in the hunt for a playoff spot and back them because of the ‘must-win’ factor. They see the Carolina Panthers at 5-8, and though they’re not eliminated from the playoffs, they expect them not to show up.

I think this false public perception has provided some line value on the Panthers here. The Redskins have been bet up from -4 to -6.5 already this week and it could get to 7. The Panthers clearly have not quit as they came back and beat the Chargers 28-16 at home last week. And almost every player shows up for Monday Night Football, so I’m not worried about any motivation concerns here.

“There is no room for error and we have to rely on certain other things happening,” head coach Ron Rivera said. “At the end of the day, our concern is our next game. We play the Redskins on Monday night and I believe our guys are going to prep and get ready. … Our intention is to win them all.”

The Redskins have only been favored by more than a field goal once all season. That came as 7.5-point home favorites over the Browns in a game they easily could have lost as they were trailing in the 4th quarter. If they were only 7.5-point favorites over the Browns, they certainly shouldn’t be 6.5-point favorites over the Panthers. And they have only won two games this season by more than a touchdown.

I think Carolina will be able to keep pace with Washington here as Cam Newton is healthy and the offense should move the football and score points. The Redskins give up 24.4 points per game, 370 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play on the season. The back door will always be open for the Panthers against this suspect defense.

Carolina could get the return of Luke Kuechly this week as he came back to practice and has been cleared to play. That would be a nice boost for a defense that is coming off one of its best performances of the season last week. The Panthers held a very good San Diego offense to just 16 points and 278 yards while forcing five turnovers.

This has been a one-sided series to say the least. The Panthers are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings with the Redskins, winning by an average of 13.0 points per game. They won 44-16 at home last season as 7-point favorites over the Redskins. They held Washington to just 186 total yards in the win. The underdog is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

Washington is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 Monday night home games. The Redskins are 13-27 ATS in their last 40 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. The Panthers are 8-1 ATS after covering the spread in two of their last three games over the past two seasons. The Redskins are 10-25-2 ATS in their last 37 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Bet the Panthers Monday.

15* Bucs/Cowboys NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Tampa Bay +7

I’ve been fading the Cowboys with a ton of success here down the stretch. I cashed in the Redskins +7 against them three weeks ago, and the Giants +4 against them last week. The Cowboys have consistently been overvalued due to their 11-game winning streak, and they continue to be overvalued here as 7-point home favorites.

The Bucs continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers despite playing as well as almost anyone here down the stretch. The Bucs are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. They have gone on the road and beaten both the Chiefs and Chargers as underdogs. They also beat the Bears and Seahawks as home underdogs before taking care of business in the favorite role against the Saints last week.

No team has played better defensively than the Bucs over the past five weeks. The Bucs have given up a league-low 12.8 points per game since Week 10. The six total touchdowns scored by opponents are tied for the fewest during that span. They have also held opponents to an average of 281.0 yards per game while forcing 14 turnovers in this stretch.

I know the Tampa Bay offense hasn’t been spectacular, but the biggest key for them is that they have a healthy Doug Martin back running the football. Just the threat of a running game has made the Bucs tough to stop. They are committing to the run, too, rushing at least 30 times in every game during this five-game streak. They will lean on Martin again to try and take some of the pressure off of Winston.

However, I think Winston is going to have a huge game against this overrated Cowboys defense. Dallas benefits from its offense holding onto the ball and controlling time of possession. But make no mistake, this Dallas defense is vulnerable. The Cowboys allow 69.7% completions and 268 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. They also rank 21st in the NFL in allowing 5.7 yards per play.

Jason Garrett is 11-25 ATS as a home favorite as the coach of Dallas. Garrett is 0-7 ATS in home games after having won five or six of the last seven games as the coach of the Cowboys. Tampa Bay is 8-1 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better over the last three seasons. The Bucs are 10-2 ATS in road games versus poor defensive teams who allow at least 5.65 yards per play over the last three years. Tampa Bay is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games.  Take the Bucs Sunday.

15* Pats/Broncos Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Denver +3

At 8-5 on the season, the Denver Broncos are tied with the Miami Dolphins for the final wild card spot in the AFC.  It's safe to say that they need this win more than the Patriots, who are basically guaranteed of a first-round bye.  I think we'll get a big effort from the Broncos here.

I still think the Broncos are one of the best teams in the NFL.  So the Patriots being 3-point road favorites here indicates that they would be 9-point favorites in New England.  I would take the Broncos in a heartbeat at that price.  And the Ravens were only 6.5-point dogs in New England last week.  The Broncos are better than the Ravens, and it's not all that close.

Now the Patriots are on a short week here after playing a big game against the Ravens on Monday Night Football.  Not only are they on a short week, but now they will have to play in the altitude in Denver.  And it's safe to say that playing in Denver hasn't been too kind to the Patriots in the past.

Indeed, the Broncos are 15-3 SU & 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games against New England.  They are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home meetings with the Patriots.  Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Broncos won both meetings at home with the Patriots last year as underdogs.  Tom Brady has been terrible in Denver.

I also believe the Broncos have the best defense in the NFL, so Brady is going to struggle again, especially with his lack of weapons right now in the passing game.  The Broncos rank 3rd in the NFL in total defense at 310.7 yards per game and 1st in yards per play defense, giving up only 4.6 yards per play.  They are also 1st in the league against the pass, allowing just 183.5 passing yards per game.

Both CB Aqib Talib and LB DeMarcus Ware recently returned to the lineup, and this defense has been dominant the last few weeks.  The Broncos gave up only 273 yards and 3.6 yards per play to the Chiefs, 233 yards and 4.1 yards per play to the Jaguar sand 253 yards and 3.9 yards per play to the Titans.

Paxton Lynch has been forced into action three times this season, including two starts, because of the injuries to Trevor Siemian.  Lynch is only averaging 6.0 yards per attempt while Siemian is at 7.3 per attempt.  Siemian is playing better than Payton Manning did last year.  He just returned against the Titans from injury last week, and he played great in the second half and nearly led them to a comeback victory.  Now Siemian will be a week healthier and should be closer to full strength.

New England is 0-6 ATS in road games after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games over the past three seasons.  The Broncos are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine home games.  Roll with the Broncos Sunday.

20* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh Steelers -3

I have been on the Steelers three of the last four weeks and they've gone 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They came through for me against the Browns, Giants and Bills.  Their 27-20 win over the Bills last week was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate, too.  I'm going to keep riding them this week.

The Steelers won by a touchdown over the Bills last week despite Ben Roethlisberger having an uncharacteristic off game with three interceptions.  Le'Veon Bell actually finished with more yards from scrimmage than Buffalo by himself.

The Steelers outgained the Bills by 185 yards.  They have outgained each of their last seven opponents and nine of their last 10 overall.  That is the sign of a dominant team.  They are in playoff mode right now and hitting on all cylinders.  Their defense has been great, giving up just 12.5 points per game in their last four contests.

Pittsburgh absolutely hates Cincinnati.  The Bengals have a knack for hurting their best players, which is the biggest reason for their hatred.  And they have certainly taken out their frustration on the Bengals in recent history.  They have won three straight and six of their last seven meetings with the Bengals.

I think the fact that the Bengals have won their last two games and haven't quit despite basically being eliminated from the playoffs has actually provided us some value here.  It is keeping this line lower than it should be.  But those two wins came against the Browns and Eagles, who both appear to have quit themselves.

Cincinnati has now played four straight terrible offensive teams in Buffalo, Baltimore, Philadelphia and Cleveland.  Now they'll be up against one of the top offenses in the NFL, and I don't think the Bengals have the firepower to keep up with all their injuries on offense right now.

The Steelers are now 11-2 ATS in their last 13 December games.  The Bengals are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  Pittsburgh is 16-4-2 ATS in its last 22 trips to Cincinnati.  Playing on the road in this series clearly hasn't been an issue for the Steelers.  They are consistently undervalued in Cincinnati, and I believe that to be the case again here with them listed as only 3-point favorites.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

20* Rams/Seahawks NFL Thursday No-Brainer on Los Angeles +15.5

It's time to buy low on the Los Angeles Rams.  They are more undervalued right now than they have been at any point this season, and that's certainly reflected in this 16-point spread.  They are coming off three straight losses by 16 points or more against non-division opponents.

I think the Rams will play with some fire this week as they step back within the division to face the Seahawks.  I also like the fact that they fired head coach Jeff Fisher, because that first game with an interim coach usually provides a spark for the players.  In this case it will be special teams coach John Fassel serving as the interim head coach.

The Rams always play the Seahawks tough.  In fact, they are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.  All four wins were outright upsets as they were dogs of 3.5, 5.5, 6.5 and 11.5 points.  The lone loss was a 14-point setback in Seattle, and I think the Seahawks are going to have a very hard time putting them away by more than two touchdowns here.

We got to see first-hand just how poor the Seattle secondary would be in their first game without Earl Thomas last week.  They allowed the highest passer rating of the Pete Carroll era in a 10-38 loss to the Packers.  Aaron Rodgers completed 18 of 23 passes for 246 yards and three touchdowns against this Seattle defense.

Los Angeles still boasts an elite defense that has had the Seahawks' number.  The Rams have allowed just 20 points and a combined 126 rushing yards in their last two meetings with the Seahawks.  This defensive line will stop the run again, and I'm not so sure Russell Wilson can beat the secondary after throwing five interceptions against the Packers last week.

Plays on road teams (LA RAMS) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games are 55-23 (70.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Plays on road teams (LA RAMS) - poor offensive team - scoring 17 or less points/game, after allowing 25 points or more in three straight games are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Rams Thursday.

25* Ravens/Pats MNF GAME OF THE YEAR on Baltimore +7

The betting public and the oddsmakers aren't giving the Ravens the amount of respect they deserve.  They have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and are clearly one of the most improved teams in the NFL since the beginning of the season.  They have outgained their last five opponents by a total of 406 yards.

In fact, the Ravens now rank 3rd in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 51.6 yards per game on the season.  The key has been a defense that ranks 1st in the NFL in total defense (296.1 yards/game) and 1st against the run (73.8 yards/game).  This has a chance to be the best run defense in NFL history.

That's important because the Ravens can make the Patriots a one-dimensional passing team.  The Patriots aren't nearly as effective when they can't run the ball.  That's because Tom Brady is playing with limited weapons right now with both Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola out.

The Patriots have been able to get by the past two weeks without Gronk because they have been up against two of the worst offenses in the NFL.  They beat the Jets 22-17 on the road and the Rams 26-10 at home.  The Ravens are starting to click offensively, especially after Joe Flacco threw for 381 yards and four touchdowns in a 38-6 win against the Dolphins last week.

Getting a full touchdown here with the Ravens is a tremendous value.  That's especially the case when you consider 24 of the last 29 Baltimore games have been decided by 8 points or less.  It's also the case when you consider how tough Baltimore has played New England in recent years.  Indeed, the Patriots have only beaten the Ravens one time by more than 6 points in their last nine meetings.

The Ravens are 8-0 ATS in their last eight after leading their previous game by 21 points or more at halftime.  They are outscoring opponents by an average of 11.3 points per game in this spot.  Baltimore is 5-0 ATS in its last five Monday games.  The Ravens are 19-9-1 ATS in their last 29 vs. a team with a winning record.  The road team is 6-0-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Ravens are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five trips to New England.

Plays on underdogs 3.5 to 10 points (BALTIMORE) - after covering the spread in three out of their last four games, in the second half of the season are 71-37 (65.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Ravens Monday.

15* Cowboys/Giants NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on New York +4

The Cowboys are way overvalued right now due to their 11-game winning streak. That has shown up the last two weeks as they have failed to cover in a 5-point win over Washington as 7-point home favorites, and a 2-point win at Minnesota as 3-point favorites. And the Cowboys were outgained by 152 yards by the Redskins and by 54 yards by the Vikings.

Let’s just compare the line from the first game between these teams to see how overvalued the Cowboys really are. The Giants were 1-point road favorites in Week 1. By that theory, they should be roughly 7-point home favorites in the rematch when you factor in 3 points for home-field advantage. Instead, they are 4-point dogs, which is essentially provides us with 11 points of value. I’m not saying they should be 7-point favorites, but they certainly shouldn’t be underdogs after being favored at Dallas in the opener.

The Giants boast a terrific passing game that can take advantage of this awful Dallas pass defense, which is allowing 70.3% completions and 277 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks.  The Cowboys have been terrible on defense all season, but that has been masked by their offense, which has been able to control the time of possession. That isn’t likely to happen in this game, and that defense will get exposed.

The Cowboys’ defense ranks 27th in yards per play (5.8), 29th in sack percentage (4.6%), 32nd in interception rate (0.8%) and 28th in yards per drive (36.4) allowed. That’s not the sign of a good defense, and Eli Manning, Odell Bechkam, Sterling Shephard and company should be able to make plenty of plays against Dallas to lead the Giants to victory.

The reason the Cowboys won’t be able to control the time of possession is because the Giants are so good against the run. Indeed, the Giants are 5th in the NFL in run defense, giving up just 91.4 rushing yards per game. They are also tied for 3rd in allowing just 3.6 yards per carry this season. They will be able to limit Ezekiel Elliott and the Cowboys’ rushing attack here. Dallas only gained 101 yards on 30 carries in the first meeting, which is just 3.4 yards per carry.

The Giants are 5-1 at home this season with their only loss coming by two points to the Washington Redskins. New York is 7-0 ATS vs. good passing teams who average 7 or more yards per attempt over the last two seasons. The Cowboys are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record. The Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record. New York is 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Dallas.  Take the Giants Sunday.

15* Seahawks/Packers NFC No-Brainer on Green Bay +3

Two weeks ago before playing the Eagles on Monday Night Football, Aaron Rodgers said the Packers were going to run the table. Well, so far so good. Green Bay has saved its season with a 27-13 win as 4-point dogs at Philadelphia and a 21-13 home win over Houston as 7-point favorites last week. It is now just two games behind Detroit in the division and very much alive in the wild card race.

I think the fact that the Seahawks blew out the Panthers on National TV last Sunday night has them overvalued here. The betting public is all over them now. But that was an awful spot for the Panthers. They were coming off a crushing loss in Oakland the previous week that essentially eliminated them from the playoffs. And the Seahawks wanted revenge from two losses to the Panthers last season, including the NFC Championship Game.

The Packers have made a commitment to running the football the past couple weeks. They ran it 28 times against the Eagles and 26 against the Texans. They have been able to control the time of possession in both games as they have been consistently moving the sticks. That has benefited their defense, which has given up just 13.0 points per game over the past two weeks.

The Seahawks aren’t nearly as good on the road as they are at home. They are just 2-3 in road games this season, compared to 6-0 at home. Seattle is scoring just 15.3 points per game on the road this year.  And Green Bay is one of the toughest places to play in the NFL.

The Packers have at least a 4-point home field advantage, and it’s pushing 5 points when it comes to the month of December when it gets colder out.  So this line is essentially saying that the Seahawks would be at least a 7-point favorite on a neutral field, and I'm not buying that.  Aaron Rodgers is 14-1 straight up in his last 15 December home starts.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won 10 of the last 11 meetings. The Packers are 6-0 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in their last six home meetings with the Seahawks. You have to go all the way back to 1999 to find the last time Seattle won in Green Bay. And not to mention, team captain Earl Thomas has been lost for the season due to injury. If there’s any quarterback who can take advantage of an absence like Thomas, it’s certainly Rodgers.

The Seahawks are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games following a home blowout win by 21 points or more. Green Bay is 9-1 ATS after allowing 3 points or less in the first half of last game over the past three seasons. The Packers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.  Roll with the Packers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bears +7.5

The Detroit Lions have no business being favored by more than a touchdown against any team in the NFL.  Especially not a division rival like the Chicago Bears who continue to play hard and would love to put a blemish on the Lions' record here.

This line is a classic overreaction from the week before.  The Lions went on the road and shocked the Saints in a 28-13 victory as 6-point underdogs.  But that was the first time all season that the Lions won by more than a touchdown.  In fact, 11 of Detroit's 12 games this season have been decided by 7 points or less, and that alone shows you that there is value with the Bears here.

Not to mention, the Lions are one of the most overrated teams in the NFL due to their 8-4 record.  But they have actually trailed in the 4th quarter in 11 of their 12 games this season, which makes it nearly impossible to be 8-4.  The raw numbers show that the Lions aren't very good.  They rank 23rd in yardage differential, getting outgained by 17.5 yards per game.  They also 22nd in yards per play differential (-0.2), gaining 5.6 yards per play on offense and giving up 5.8 per play on defense.

If you just look at the stats, you would think the Bears are actually the better team.  The Bears actually rank 4th in the NFL in yards per play differential (+0.6).  They gain 5.7 yards per play on offense and only give up 5.1 per play on defense.  They Bears are also 10th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 21.4 yards per game on the season.

The Bears beat the Lions 17-14 at home as 3-point dogs in their first meeting.  That game was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed.  The Bears outgained the Lions by 145 yards in that contest. Their offense racked up 408 total yards while their defense only gave up 263.  They held Matthew Stafford to 213 passing yards and two interceptions without a touchdown.  The Lions' only touchdown in that game came on an 85-yard punt return with less than two minutes to play.

I like what I've seen from Matt Barkley recently.  He is a gamer who doesn't make many mistakes.  And Barkley would have put up even bigger numbers the past two weeks if it wasn't for drops.  Bears receivers dropped 10 balls against the Titans in a game they should have won, and several more last week against the 49ers.  Had they caught some of them, that would have been a bigger blowout than the 26-6 final against San Francisco showed.

But Jordan Howard had a big day, rushing for 117 yards and three touchdowns for the Bears, and he should have a big game against this Lions' defense.  Detroit has had to play some of its safety's at linebacker because of injuries to their top two LB's in DeAndre Levy and Tahir Whitehead.  The Saints didn't take advantage of it last week as they only ran the ball 12 times.  Chicago won't make that same mistake.  Look for a heavy dose of Howard in this one.

Chicago is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 off three straight games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse.   The Lions are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.  Detroit is 0-7 ATS in its last seven after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better.  The Bears are 6-0 ATS vs. good passing teams who average at least 7 yards per attempt over the last two seasons.  Chicago is 6-0 ATS versus good offensive teams that average 5.65 or more yards per play over the last two years.  These last three trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing Chicago.  Bet the Bears Sunday.

20* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5

As the weather has gotten colder, the Pittsburgh Steelers have played their best football of the season. The Steelers are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall. They are coming off three straight double-digit blowout victories and I expect them to continue to roll Sunday.

The Steelers have moved into a first-place tie with the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC North. The Ravens play the Patriots on the road this week, so this is their chance to overtake them. And with how well they’re playing right now, the Steelers should be favored by more than 2.5 points against the Bills.

The Bills will have a hard time getting back up off the mat this week after blowing a golden opportunity in Oakland last weekend. They led that game 24-9 in the third quarter, but gave up 29 unanswered points and wound up losing by 14. I simply do not like the state of mind of this team after that kind of loss, especially since their chances of making the playoffs are now slim to none. They would need to run the table, and even that might not be enough.

The Bills are now just 2-4 SU & 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games overall. Their two wins have come against the Bengals and Jaguars. They beat the Bengals by 4 the same day that they lost both AJ Green and Giovani Bernard, and they were fortunate to beat the Jaguars after trailing most the way at home in that game.

The Steelers have outgained six straight opponents and eight of their last nine, which is the sign of a dominant team. They outgained the Giants by 155 yards last week in one of their most complete performances of the season. Ben Roethlisberger now has a full compliment of weapons, especially with the return of TE LaDarius Green, who caught six balls for 110 yards and a score last week.

The defense is starting to play more like the Steel Curtain units of the past. The Steelers have allowed a total of 30 points in their last three games and an average of 10.0 points per game. Meanwhile, the Bills have allowed 28 or more points in four of their last six. I see the Steelers hanging a big number on them here and Buffalo not being able to catch up.

The key to stopping the Bills is stopping the run, and the Steelers have been great at that this season. They rank 6th in the NFL against the run, giving up just 92 rushing yards per game. The Steelers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 December games. The Bills are 12-26-2 ATS in their last 40 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Pittsburgh is 9-1 SU & 9-1 ATS in its last 10 meetings with Buffalo.  The one-sided nature of this series continues this week.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

 20* Raiders/Chiefs AFC West No-Brainer on Oakland +3.5

The Oakland Raiders are going to be out for revenge from their 26-10 loss to the Chiefs earlier this season. That was actually the last time they lost a game, as they have reeled off six straight victories since. And it was an awful spot for the Raiders as the Chiefs were coming off their bye week with a big advantage in rest.

But the Raiders have been rolling since, going 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS with their only non-cover coming in a 3-point win over Carolina as 3.5-point favorites. The other five wins all came by 6 points or more. The offense is hitting on all cylinders, scoring at least 27 points in all six games. And the defense has steadily improved, allowing 24 or fewer points in five of the six contests.

This is an Oakland offense that ranks 3rd in the NFL in scoring at 28.9 points per game and 5th in total offense at 391.7 yards per game. The Chiefs rank just 23rd in total offense at 333.3 yards per game. They just have trouble moving the football this season, and their defense hasn’t been any better, ranking 29th in total defense at 384.9 yards per game.

As you can see, the Chiefs are 9-3 despite ranking 23rd in total offense and 29th in total defense. If that’s not overachieving I don’t know what is. They rank 29th in yardage differential, getting outgained by 51.6 yards per game. Only the Rams, Browns and 49ers have been worse, so they are in some very poor company. They have been outgained in five straight games despite going 4-1 over that time frame.

At some point, the Chiefs’ luck is going to run out because this isn’t a very good football team. They are winning with smoke and mirrors. A whopping 16 of their 29 points last week came from their defense and special teams against the Falcons in a game they should have lost. They also got 9 points from their defensive and special teams in a win over the Broncos the week before. And four weeks ago, their offense didn’t score a touchdown and they beat the Panthers.

But we saw what happened when the Chiefs couldn’t get points from their defense or special teams in their last home game in Week 11. They lost 17-19 at home to the Tampa Bay Bucs as 7-point favorites. And that game wasn’t even as close as the final score because the Bucs outgained them by 99 yards and were held to four field goals. The Chiefs have been outgained by a total of 592 yards in their last five games, which equates to 118.4 yards per game. That’s not the sign of a good football team.

Home-field advantage has meant very little in this series between Oakland and Kansas City. In fact, the road team is 21-6 ATS in the last 27 meetings. The Raiders are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 trips to Kansas City. And Oakland has been a tremendous road team over the past few seasons. The Raiders are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games overall. They are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS on the road this season alone.

And the Chiefs certainly haven't had any home-field advantages of late.  They are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Kansas City is also 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS win.  It will be cold in Kansas City tonight, but the winds will be in the single-digits, which helps Oakland's elite passing attack.  Bet the Raiders Thursday.

20* Colts/Jets ESPN Monday No-Brainer on New York +1.5

The Jets may be just 3-8 this season, but a lot of that has to do with the schedule and not their performance on the field.  They have played the 5th-toughest schedule this season.  Now things finally lighten up a bit for them as they play the Colts, 49ers and Dolphins over the next three weeks.  I think you'll see much better results from them going forward.

I know the Jets have lost three straight, but they've been in all three games as the losses have come by 4, 3 and 5 points.  They nearly beat the New England Patriots at home last week in a 17-22 loss after the Patriots scored late in the fourth quarter to take the lead for good.  While sometimes a team would be in for a letdown after facing the Patriots, that won't be the case tonight because teams always get up for Monday Night Football.

A big problem for the Jets has been turnovers as they rank 31st in the league in turnover differential (-14).  They have only eight takeaways all season, which is absurd.  Their defense is better than that as it ranks 15th in the NFL at 348.7 yards per game allowed.  Over the last three weeks the Jets have given up fewer than 5 yards per pass attempt in each game.

Andrew Luck has been sacked 36 times this season, and the Jets still have one of the best defensive lines in the NFL. They should get after him here and should win the battle of the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football.  The Colts rank 30th in total defense, giving up 27.4 points and 395.0 yards per game.  They rank 26th against the run and are giving up 4.6 yards per carry this season.  They are also 30th against the pass and 31st in yards per play allowed at 6.2.

Look for Matt Forte to get it going tonight and take some of the pressure off of Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is still an average quarterback in this league despite the interceptions.  Forte has amassed 508 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns in his past five contests.  The Jets went to a short passing game against the Patriots last week and it worked.

Indianapolis may be in the playoff hunt at 5-6 on the season, but make no mistake, this is not a good team.  It has played the 6th-easiest schedule this season.  The Colts have been outgained in seven of their last eight games overall.  They rank 27th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by 42.6 yards per game on average.  The Jets have only been outgained by 13.6 yards per game this season to compare.

The Jets are 2-0 against Andrew Luck in his career.  Luck has completed just 43 of 81 passes for 530 yards with one touchdown, five interceptions and a 52.0 career passer rating.  He has also been sacked five times.  Colts quarterbacks have been sacked 3.5 times per game this season.

New York is 19-5 ATS in its last 24 home games off a home loss.  The Jets are 10-1-2 ATS in their last 13 games in December.  Indianapolis is 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Colts are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in New York.  Bet the Jets Monday.

20* Giants/Steelers NFL Sunday No-Brainer on Pittsburgh -5.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers are in a dog fight with the Baltimore Ravens for the AFC North lead.  They are finally as healthy as they've been all season, and it is starting to show as they are coming off back-to-back blowout road wins over the Browns and Colts.  Now they've had extra time to prepare for this game after blasting Indianapolis on Thanksgiving Night.

The Steelers have outgained five straight opponents and seven of their last eight overall.  They are legitimately a Top 5 team in the NFL as they rank 5th in point differential, outscoring opponents by 44 points on the season despite dealing with injuries and suspensions to their best players.  But that is no longer an issue from them, and we'll see their best going forward given the position they are in in the AFC North.

The New York Giants are one of the most fraudulent teams in the NFL.  They are nowhere near as good as their 8-3 record would indicate.  They have only outscored their opponents by 18 points on the season, and 14 of those came last week against the Browns.  The key for them is that they've gone an unsustainable 7-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less.  No worries, this one won't be decided by that margin.

The Giants rank 25th in yardage differential on the season, which isn't something you would expect from an 8-3 team.  And they've certainly taken advantage of a very soft schedule.  The Giants have played the 5th-easiest schedule in the NFL, while the Steelers have played the 12th-toughest.

After losing back-to-back home games to the Patriots and Cowboys, the Steelers will get back on track in a big way at home here.  They haven't lost three straight at home since 2003.  Mike Tomlin is 56-21 all-time at Heinz Field and Ben Roethlisberger has thrown 25 touchdowns against five interceptions in his past seven home games.  The Steelers' defense is at their best when the stop the run, and that won't be an issue because the Giants are 31st in rushing offense.

Pittsburgh is 8-1 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards per play in its previous game over the past two seasons.  Tomlin is 20-8 ATS after failing to cover the spread in four or five of their last six games as the coach of Pittsburgh.  The Steelers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games in December.  The Giants are 0-6-2 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Green Bay Packers -5.5

The Green Bay Packers came up with a season-saving victory over the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football last week.  Not only did they win that game, they dominated, beating the Eagles 27-13 as 4-point dogs and outgaining them by 95 yards.

Now the Packers have new life as they are just two games back of the Detroit Lions for the division lead.  And the Vikings lost on Thursday to the Cowboys, while the Lions aren't likely to win in New Orleans this week.  That means a win Sunday would put the Packers just one game back in the division and with the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Lions having beaten them earlier this season.  They have everything to play for right now.

The Houston Texans are one of the worst teams in the NFL.  They may be 6-5 on the season, but they are nowhere near as good as their record.  They rank 28th in the NFL in yards per play differential.  A big reason for that is their terrible offense, which ranks 29th in total offense at 316.9 yards per game and 29th in scoring offense at 17.6 points per game.  The Texans also rank 31st in yards per play (4.8).

Houston has been a great home team, but it has been a different story on the road.  The Texans are just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in road games this season, getting outscored by 13.4 points per game in the process.  Their offense is only scoring 13.2 points per game and averaging 279.2 yards per game on the road.  And their only road win this season came against the Jaguars when the Texans were coming off their bye week.

Brock Osweiler simply isn't going to be able to match Aaron Rodgers score for score.  Osweiler is one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL, averaging just 5.8 yards per attempt with a 12-to-13 TD/INT ratio.  Rodgers looked great against the Eagles with the short passing game, taking pressure off the defense, which he will continue to do this week.  And he also has the threat of a running game now with a healthy James Starks, which is something the Packers haven't had for much of the season.

The Packers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.  Green Bay is 40-19-3 ATS in their last 62 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.  I expect one of the best performances of the season from Green Bay this week against the hapless Texans.  Take the Packers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Atlanta Falcons -3.5

The Atlanta Falcons are legitimately one of the best teams in the NFL this season.  They have gone 7-4 despite playing the NFL's toughest schedule to this point.  And all four of their losses have come by single-digits.  They rank 1st in the NFL in yards per play differential, outgaining teams by 1.0 yards per play on the season.

The Falcons are 3rd in total offense and 1st in yards per play.  They average 6.6 yards per play every time they snap the football.  They beat Arizona 38-19 at home last week.  What I liked about that win was that Julio Jones was held to 35 receiving yards, yet they still scored 38 points.  That just goes to show you how dynamic this offense is as there are weapons everywhere.

The Kansas City Chiefs are the most fraudulent team in the NFL.  Just look at last week when they turned a safety into 9 points after Tyreke Hill returned a punt for a TD on the next play.  They were outgained by 191 yards by the Broncos last week.  Their offense averaged just 3.3 yards per play in that game, and their defense games up 6.7 yards per play to the Broncos.  They were lucky to win that game to say the least.

The Chiefs now rank 30th in the NFL in yardage differential.  They're getting outgained by 54 yards per game on average.  They also rank 27th in yards per play differential.  They lead the league in turnover differential at +14, and it just seems that if their defense or special teams doesn't score for them, they can't win.  I just don't trust these types of teams.

This is also an awful spot for the Chiefs.  They are coming off an emotional OT win on Sunday Night Football against the Broncos, and now they have a huge game against division-leading Oakland on deck Thursday.  That makes this a sandwich game for them.

Road teams who are coming off an overtime game are 0-9 SU & 0-9 ATS while losing by 16.7 points per game in their last nine tries.  Kansas City is 5-17 ATS in its last 22 road games vs. excellent passing teams who average 7.5 or more yards per attempt.  The Chiefs are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win.  Roll with the Falcons Sunday.

20* Cowboys/Vikings NFL Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 44

It's well documented that the Vikings have one of the worst offenses in the NFL.  In fact, they rank last in the league in total offense at 294.9 yards per game.  They are also last in the NFL in yards per play at 4.8 yards per play.

The Vikings have no running game as they rank last in the NFL at 71.1 rushing yards per game and 2.8 per carry.  That means that a lot has been put on Sam Bradford's shoulders.  He has played well and hasn't turned the ball over much, but he just isn't able to stretch the field.

Last week against the Lions, the average distance of Bradford's pass attempts traveled 3.7 yards past the line of scrimmage.  That was tied for the lowest number of any team during the 2016 season.  Bradford is completing over 70% of his passes in his last four games, but the Vikings only have one play that has gone for 40 or more yards in those four contests.

So, the Vikings are essentially using their short passing game as their running game.  They are completing a high percentage of passes, but they aren't going for much yardage.  This works great for UNDERs because it keep the clock moving, just like a running game would.  But the Vikings just aren't getting many points to show for it.

The good news for the Vikings is that they can be competitive in this game because of their defense.  They rank 2nd in scoring defense (17.5 PPG) and 3rd in total defense at 307.0 yards per game allowed.  They are tied for 3rd with 4.9 yards per play allowed.  They have a tremendous defensive line that will not only slow down Ezekiel Elliott, but also give Dak Prescott more trouble than perhaps he has had all season with their blitzing.

Dallas is one of the few teams that actually runs the ball more than it throws it this season.  That should keep the clock moving as well, just as the Vikings will do with their limited, short passing attack.  I look for both teams to really struggle when they get down in the red zone.  The Cowboys haven't struggled in this area much this season, but the task is much taller against this Vikings' defense.

Dallas is 6-0 UNDER in road games off one or more straight overs over the last two seasons.  Minnesota is 8-1 UNDER  versus good rushing defenses that allow 90 or fewer rushing yards per game.  Dallas is 17-4 UNDER in its last 21 road games vs. good passing defenses that allow 5.7 or fewer yards per attempt.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Cowboys last 10 road games.  The UNDER is 14-2 in Vikings last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 20-8-1 in Vikings last 29 games overall.  The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.