20* AFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Oakland Raiders +1.5 

The Oakland Raiders have been undervalued all season.  Despite playing a brutal schedule with five straight games away from home, they have gone 4-4 SU & 5-3 ATS this season.  Give Jon Gruden and his players credit for taking a step forward this season and getting themselves into playoff contention midway through the season. 

While the Raiders have faced the 2nd-toughest schedule in the NFL this year, the Chargers have played the 23rd-ranked schedule.  That’s a difference of 21 spots in strength of schedule.  Yet the Chargers are just 4-5 on the season and on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoffs. 

I think the only reason the Chargers are favored in this game is because everyone assumes they are going to make a run in the second half of the season like they always seem to do.  They come in having won two in a row to start their run, and while their performance against the Packers was impressive, it was a Packers team that is one of the most overrated in the NFL with a leaky defense.  And they had no business beating the Bears, who outgained the Chargers by 157 yards and missed a last-second field goal. 

The Raiders have been competitive in every game except for their loss to the Chiefs back in Week 2 where they were outgained by 160 yards.  They haven’t been outgained by more than 83 yards in any other game this season.  And they are only getting outgained by 8 yards per game on the season. 

Derek Carr leads the NFL in completion percentage at 71.2% with a 13-to-4 TD/INT ratio.  And Josh Jacobs has given this offense an identity that they haven’t had in years.  Jacobs has rushed for 740 yards and six touchdowns while averaging 4.9 yards per carry.  This balanced attack has been tough for teams to tame here of late as the Raiders have scored at least 24 points in five straight games coming in. 

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA Chargers) - off an upset win by 14 points or more as a home underdog, after the first month of the season are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS since 1983.  The Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  Bet the Raiders Thursday. 

20* Cowboys/Giants ESPN Monday No-Brainer on New York +7 

The Dallas Cowboys are getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers here Monday night because they are coming off their bye week, and they went into their bye with a blowout home win over the Eagles.  But their bye week advantage is certainly negated some here because the Giants get an extra day of rest as well with this game being played on Monday Night Football. 

The Cowboys had lost three straight prior to that win over the Eagles.  And their other three wins came against the Giants, Redskins and Dolphins.  That was a Giants team in the season opener that wasn’t very good and was starting Eli Manning.  They have been a much better offensive football team since Daniel Jones took over at quarterback, and they are starting to get healthy. 

Jones has led the Giants to an average of 21.7 points per game in his six starts this season.  And keep in mind the Giants have been without Saquon Barkley, Evan Ingram, Golden Tate and Sterling Shepard at various times in those six games.  Now, he’ll have all four weapons healthy and playing in this game Monday night for the first time this season.  This is going to be a dangerous Giants offense moving forward with his Jones’ full compliment of weapons. 

The Cowboys have had offensive line injuries bite them once again this season.  Tyron Smith is back healthy, but both G Zack Martin and T La’el Collins are questionable heading into this game.  And while the Cowboys have put up some good numbers this season, it has come against the league’s 30th-ranked schedule.  The Giants have faced a much more difficult slate and will be out for revenge tonight at home. 

Dallas is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 road games off a home blowout win by 21 points or more.  New York is 17-3 ATS in its last 20 games after allowing 17 points or more in the first half of two consecutive games coming in. Pat Shurmur is 14-3 ATS after having lost five or six of his last seven games as a head coach.  Bet the Giants Monday. 

15* Browns/Broncos AFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland -3.5 

The Cleveland Browns have played the 4th-toughest schedule in the NFL this season.  They have played a brutal stretch of games here of late with five in a row against the Rams, Ravens, 49ers, Seahawks and Patriots who are a combined 32-7 this season.  It’s a big reason they are just 2-5 on the season. 

I believe the Browns are undervalued right now due to their record.  But the schedule gets a lot easier moving forward, starting with this showdown with the hapless Denver Broncos, who are 2-6 this season.  The Browns still believe they can make some noise, and they will be ‘all in’ this week to try and turn their season around and get a victory. 

The Broncos have to be deflated right now.  They led almost the entire way against the Colts last week, but lost on a last-second field goal by a final of 13-15.  They just keep losing close games, but they also have three losses by 8 points or more.  It’s a team that I think will find it hard to be motivated the rest of the way because they know they have no chance of catching the Chiefs in the division, while the Browns still have hope to win their division. 

Now the Broncos will give Brandon Allen his first career start after Joe Flacco went on injured receiver with a neck injury following that loss to the Colts last week.  “Honestly, I haven’t had too much work with him,” conceded Broncos top wideout Courtland Sutton.  That’s a bad sign for the Broncos this week, especially since they just traded away their other top weapon in Emmanuel Sanders.  I just can’t foresee their offense having very much success against Cleveland’s defense this week. 

Plays on road favorites (Cleveland) - off a road loss, in November games are 57-26 (68.7%) ATS since 1983.  The Broncos are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 home games.  Denver is 7-16 ATS in its last 23 games following a loss.  Their downward spiral continues this week against a highly motivated Browns team ready to bust out.  Roll with the Browns Sunday. 

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6 

The Seattle Seahawks just don’t have the home-field advantage they used to.  They are 6-2 this season, but both of their losses this season came at home to Ravens & Saints.  Their two home wins this season each came by a single point over the Bengals and Rams.  They haven’t gotten margin at home yet this season, and they shouldn’t be laying 6 points here to the Bucs. 

The Seahawks have played the 23rd-toughest schedule in the NFL.  The Bucs are 2-5, but they have played the 2nd-toughest schedule in the NFL this season.  And they’ve been competitive in basically every game they’ve played.  The problem with them is turnovers.  They have committed 11 of them in their last two games yet still had a chance to win both.  If they just take care of the football, the Buccaneers can beat anyone. 

We saw that when they went on the road and upset the Rams 55-40 as 9-point dogs.  They also upset the Panthers on the road, and only lost to the Saints by 7 on the road.  Last week they lost 23-27 at Tennessee, but they deserved to win that game as they outgained the Titans by 143 yards.  Turnovers hurt them, but refs did them no favors either blowing a play dead that would have been a TD in their favor and changed the outcome. 

The Seahawks allowed a whopping 512 total yards to Matt Schaub and the Atlanta Falcons last week.  This is a bad Seattle defense that ranks 23rd in total defense giving up 376.1 yards per game and 30th in yards per play (6.2) allowed.  Conversely, the Bucs are improved greatly defensively this season, ranking 14th in yards per play (5.4) allowed. 

The Seahawks have a huge game on deck against the 49ers in a division rivalry.  They could easily be overlooking the Bucs here and looking ahead to that divisional showdown against the undefeated 49ers.  The Seahawks are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  Now they have to try and get margin here against a Bucs team that is way better than their record would indicate. 

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Seattle) - after having won six or seven of their last eight games, a team that is winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Tampa Bay) - with a scoring defense that allows 27 or more points per game are 43-17 (71.7%) ATS over the last five years.  Bet the Buccaneers Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Pittsburgh Steelers +1 

The Pittsburgh Steelers are much better than their record would indicate.  They are 3-4 this season, but their four losses have come to the Patriots, 49ers, Seahawks and Ravens, who are a combined 27-4 on the season.  And three of those losses came by 4 points or less, which just shows how close they are to being a 6-1 team.  But because they actually have a losing record, they are undervalued right now and should not be home underdogs to the Indianapolis Colts this week. 

The Colts are 5-2 and are overvalued because of their record.  All seven of their games have been decided by a touchdown or less, so they have been extremely fortunate in close games.  They trailed the entire way against the Broncos at home last week and needed a last-second field goal to escape with a 15-13 victory.  That’s a bad Broncos team, and I think their luck comes to an end this week. 

The Colts have some key injuries here that are getting overlooked.  They will be without their best receiver in T.Y. Hilton due to a calf injury.  The Colts are 0-5 SU without Hilton in the lineup over the last couple seasons. They could be without both LB Justin Houston and FS Malik Hooker, who are both questionable.  I know James Conner is doubtful for the Steelers, but other than him they are relatively healthy. 

I think both offenses are pretty comparable here with backup QB’s in Mason Rudolph and Jacoby Brissett.  However, there is a big advantage for the Steelers on defense in this one.  Pittsburgh ranks 7th in yards per play (5.1) allowed.  Indianapolis ranks 22nd in yards per play (5.9) allowed.  Yards per play is easily the most important stat to determine how good a defense is. 

The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Pittsburgh is 32-20 ATS as an underdog under Tomlin.  The Colts are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Pittsburgh is 8-1 SU & 6-3 ATS in its last nine home meetings with Indianapolis.  Take the Steelers Sunday. 

25* NFL London GAME OF THE YEAR on Jacksonville Jaguars +1.5 

The Jacksonville Jaguars have really become a good team once Gardner Minshew took over at quarterback.  They have gone 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in his seven starts with their three losses coming to Houston (by 1), Carolina (by 7) and New Orleans (by 7).  So they have been competitive in every game.  Their four wins have come by an average of 9.8 points pre game. 

Now the Jaguars head over to London determined for revenge from a 12-13 loss at Houston in their first meeting this season.  That was Minshew’s first career start, and he still nearly led the Jaguars to a win.  They came up inches short on a two-point conversion in the closing seconds.  They have gone 4-2 since that defeat and are coming off back-to-back wins by double-digits.  Minshew is averaging 7.6 yards per attempt with a 13-to-2 TD/INT ratio on the season. 

Jacksonville is certainly used to this London trip.  The Jaguars have been over to London for seven straight seasons, and fans over there are starting to adopt them as their team.  In fact, I actually think they have a bigger home-field advantage in London then they do in Jacksonville.   

The Jaguars have flown out late in the week to London here recently and have everything figured out that goes along with the trip.  Players won’t be distracted because they are used to it.  And the Jaguars have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four London games despite being an underdog in all four.  They have covered the spread by an average of over 10 points per game in these contests. 

Houston isn’t the same team that Jacksonville faced the first time these teams met.  The Texans are now without their most important defender in J.J. Watt, who suffered a torn pectoral muscle against the Raiders last week.  Their defense was already pretty soft, and now it’s going to be one of the worst defenses in the NFL without Watt moving forward.  Especially since they have cluster injuries at cornerback.  The Texans are also missing their big playmaker in Will Fuller at receiver.  Stats have shown that Watson is a much better quarterback with Fuller on the field than off of it. 

I just haven’t been impressed at all with the Texans here lately as it is.  They are 1-1 SU & 0-2 ATS in their last two games overall.  They lost 23-30 at Indianapolis and trailed the entire way.  And last week they trailed basically the entire way against Oakland until late in the fourth quarter and were fortunate to win 27-24 as 5.5-point favorites. 

It’s well documented that Deshaun Watson takes more sacks than any other quarterback in the NFL.  A big part of that is poor offensive line play, but it’s also because he holds onto the ball too long and tries to extend plays too often.  Well, the Texans have been at their worst offensively against teams like the Jaguars that get after the quarterback.  The Jaguars rank 4th in the NFL in sacks (29).  They held the Texans to 13 points in their first meeting. 

Bill O’Brien is 0-6 ATS after having 34 possession minutes or more and 24 or more first downs in their previous game as the coach of Houston having never covered in this situation.  The Jaguars are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. AFC opponents.  The underdog is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Bet the Jaguars Sunday. 

20* Dolphins/Steelers ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Miami +14.5 

This line is outrageous.  The Miami Dolphins cannot be catching more than two touchdowns against the Pittsburgh Steelers.  The Dolphins aren’t as bad as they are perceived to be, and the Steelers are one of the worst teams in the NFL, so they just can’t be laying this big of a number. 

The Steelers are 2-4 this season with their two wins coming against the Bengals and Chargers, who are a combined 2-12.  And their win over the Chargers was very misleading as the Chargers basically gave them two touchdowns with turnovers.  The Steelers only gained 256 total yards on offense against the Chargers. 

And that’s my problem with the Steelers laying this big of a number.  Their offense is horrid.  They average just 20.5 points and 276.5 yards per game this season.  The Steelers rank 28th in total offense this season.  With backup quarterbacks, they have gone to a dink and dunk passing game that will get figured out rather quickly.  They just aren’t going to be putting up points in a hurry. 

My mind was blown last week when it was announced that Ryan Fitzpatrick was going to start against the Bills instead of Josh Rosen, and the line didn’t move at all.  Fitzpatrick is at least worth 3 to 4 points over Rosen, and he has proven that the last two weeks.  He entered late against the Redskins and led the Dolphins on two touchdown drives, nearly leading them to their first victory of the season in a 16-17 loss. 

Then last week, Fitzpatrick did everything in his power to beat the Bills as 17-point road underdogs.  The Dolphins probably deserved to win that game because they outgained the Bills by 76 yards.  Fitzpatrick threw for 282 yards with one touchdown and one pick, while also rushing for a score.  The Bills got a 45-yard onside kick return TD for a score with 1:38 left to make it a misleading 31-21 final. 

I like the fight I saw in the Dolphins in that game.  They are rallying around Fitzpatrick and they clearly aren’t tanking contrary to popular belief.  I’ve seen a team hungry for a victory the last two weeks.  And that certainly won’t change on the bright lights of Monday Night Football.  This team would love nothing more than to get their first win of the season on the biggest stage to quiet their naysayers. 

Plays against home favorite of 10.5 or more points (Pittsburgh) - after having won two of their last three games, in October games are 38-13 (74.5%) ATS since 1983.  Pittsburgh is 12-28 ATS in its last 40 games as a favorite of 10 or more points.  Mike Tomlin is 5-14 ATS against teams that are outscored by 10-plus points per game on the season as the coach of the Steelers.  Pittsburgh is just 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a bye week.  Bet the Dolphins Monday. 

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Browns +13 

I love several things about the Browns +13 over the Patriots this week.  First and foremost, the Browns are coming off their bye week, giving them a chance to regroup.  And the Patriots will be working on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football.  The rest and preparation advantage clearly goes to the Browns in this one. 

The Patriots were -10.5 over the Browns on the lookahead line last week.  But after beating the Jets 33-0, the Patriots jumped up to -13 favorites.  Well, the Jets basically gave that game away by committing six turnovers.  They threw two touchdowns in the end zone and just nothing went their way as Sam Darnold famously said he was ’seeing ghosts’. 

The Browns come in highly motivated for a victory after two straight losses, including a blown 20-6 lead over the Seahawks to lose 28-32 going into the bye week.  The Browns also get a lost healthier this week as they get some key pieces back in the secondary in CB’s Greedy Williams and Denzel Ward from injury.  And Baker Mayfield got some much needed extra time to rest his banged up hip. 

I think the Browns are one of the most underrated teams in the NFL right now due to their 2-4 start.  The talent is just too good on this team to be 2-4.  They showed what they were capable of in their 40-25 road win over the Ravens as 7-point dogs a few weeks back.  Unfortunately, they haven’t always lived up to their potential because of turnovers.  They have already committed 14 turnovers in six games, including a combined 12 turnovers in their four losses.  There’s no question they are primed for a big effort off their bye week as long as they take care of the football. 

The Patriots are clearly overvalued right now after their 7-0 start to the season.  I say that because they have faced the easiest schedule in the entire NFL.  Their schedule ranks 32nd in difficulty.  The Browns have faced the 13th-toughest schedule to compare.  Six of the Patriots seven wins have come against teams that are a combined 7-32 on the season.  The lone exception was the 16-10 win over the 5-1 Buffalo Bills, but that was a fluky result as the Bills outplayed them and should have won.  The Bills outgained them by 151 yards.  I believe Cleveland is by far the 2nd-best team the Patriots will have faced this season. 

The Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  Cleveland is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS loss.  Plays against favorites (New England) - a good offensive team scoring 27 or more points per game against a poor defensive team that allows 23 to 27 points per game, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games are 33-12 (73.3%) ATS since 1983.  Roll with the Browns Sunday. 

25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Buffalo Bills -1.5 

The Buffalo Bills are legit this season, yet they just rarely get the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.  And I definitely think they are getting overlooked as only 1.5-point home favorites here against the Eagles. 

This is the best Bills team the city has seen in probably decades.  They are 5-1 and nothing about what they have done this season is a fluke.  They are outgaining teams by nearly 70 yards per game this season.  They have outgained five of their six opponents. 

The only exception was actually last week in a flat performance against the Dolphins, yet they still won by 10 points.  And I think the fact that they didn’t cover that inflated 17-point spread is why we are getting them at a discount here.   

Nobody has played the Patriots tougher than the Bills.  They lost 10-16 to the Patriots, but gave up a special teams touchdown and outgained the Patriots by 151 yards.  Tom Brady had one of the worst games of his career in that game.  He was 18-of-39 passing for 150 yards without a touchdown and an interception. 

Now this elite Bills defense will continue to terrorize Carson Wentz, who is probably seeing ghosts by now just like Sam Darnold.  The Eagles lost by 18 at the Vikings and followed it up with a miserable 27-point road loss to the Cowboys last week.  If they were going to show some fight, it would have been last week against the Cowboys.  I just think this team is broken right now. 

They have one of the worst secondary’s in the league.  And they just got rid of Orlando Scandrick, who called out the Eagles’ locker room for being content after winning the Super Bowl two years ago.  He said the hunger is gone, and it’s hard to argue. 

The Vikings and Cowboys proved you could run on the Eagles.  Those two teams averaged 156 rushing yards per game the last two weeks on this Eagles defense.  They have injuries on the offensive line and at the skill positions that are making things tough on Wentz and the offense. 

The Eagles are now 1-3 on the road this season and getting outscored by 10.5 points per game.  It will be a very hostile atmosphere in Buffalo this week as the fans couldn’t possibly be more excited about this team.  It is one of the most passionate fan bases in the NFL, even when they’re bad.  But when they’re good, their home-field advantage is massive. 

Plays on home favorites in non-conference games off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Plays against any team (Philadelphia) - after trailing in their previous game by 14 points or more at the half against an opponent that scored 30 points or more last game are 40-14 (74.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Bills Sunday. 

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Giants +7 

The Detroit Lions just can’t be favored by a touchdown over the Giants today.  They are 2-3-1 on the season with their two wins coming by a field goal each.  And they were aided by mistakes by the Chargers and injuries to the Eagles. 

Detroit’s defense has completely fallen apart.  The Lions are giving up 33.0 points and 462.7 yards per game in their last three games, which have all resulted in losses.  The injuries are mounting on defense as they will be without DT Mike Daniels and CB Darius Slay.  And they just traded away a team captain and one of the most liked players on the team in Quandre Diggs, and players voiced their frustrations over the move. 

The Giants should be able to shred this Lions defense as well.  Detroit just got back some key pieces from injury last week in Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram.  And Golden Tate is back from suspension.  Their offense is about as healthy as it has been at any point this season, and Daniel Jones is primed for another big performance here. 

I liked what I saw from the Giants’ defense last week against a good Cardinals offense.  They held the Cardinals to just 245 total yards, including 89 passing.  They fell in a quick 17-0 hole early and were able to climb their way back with a chance to win thanks to the job the defense did.  They held the Cardinals to just 10 points over the final three quarters, and one of those was a field goal after the offense turned it over on downs deep in their own territory late. 

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Detroit) - after covering the spread in four of hitter last five games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS since 1983.  The Lions are 16-37 ATS in their last 53 games after covering the spread in four or five of their last six games.  They are getting too much respect here after covering four of their last five coming in, and they aren’t winning by margin. 

The Giants are 16-3 ATS in their last 19 games after allowing 17 points or more in the first half of two straight games.  New York is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 road games.  The road team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Look for New York to continue to be road warriors here and cover this inflated number.  Take the Giants Sunday. 

15* Redskins/Vikings NFC ANNIHILATOR on Washington +17 

This is a great time to ’sell high’ on the Minnesota Vikings and ‘buy low’ on the Washington Redskins.  The Vikings are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS this season, while the Redskins are 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS.  Bettors want nothing to do with the Redskins and want to back the Vikings as a result.  That creates artificial line inflation as the books don’t want to have one-sided action on the Vikings.  This line should be less than two touchdowns, so we’ll take the value. 

The headline surrounding this game is Kirk Cousins facing his former team.  But what about Adrian Peterson and Case Keenum?  Cousins chose to leave for Minnesota in free agency.  Keenum was the one who would have been hurt because the Vikings didn’t want him despite a great season, electing to sign Cousins instead. And you know Adrian Peterson wants to have a big game against his former team. 

I think having both Keenum and Peterson will be a huge advantage for the Redskins.  They know all of Mike Zimmer’s defensive tendencies, so they won’t be surprised by anything they see.  And I expect Washington players to rally around their veteran leaders and try and put forth their best game of the season here to try and get them both a win against their former team. 

“It’s gonna help a lot, watching film and seeing some of their tendencies,” said Peterson on how his familiarity with the Vikings defense could help the offense on a short week.  "Just knowing the personalities and their mentality right there is gonna be very important for me and being able to talk to these guys as well since it’ll probably be their first time going up against some of them.” 

“This is where we’re at and there’s only one way to get out of it, is to get out of it together,” said offensive tackle Morgan Moses on how the locker room is dealing with the team’s tough start. “I think we have a great plan, I know the guys are still here, they’re still bought in.  We show up everyday to work, to make our situation better.” 

The Vikings have won and covered three straight coming in.  They couldn’t possibly be more overvalued right now as a result.  Kirk Cousins had a disastrous start in his first four games this season, but has gotten going against three bad defenses in the Giants, Eagles and Lions.  Now, Cousins won’t have his favorite target in Adam Thielen, who suffered a hamstring injury in the win over the Lions last week.   

Not having to face Thielen should make Washington’s job a lot easier on defense.  They can now double-team Stephon Diggs because the Vikings simply don’t have any other great weapons.  Focus on stopping Diggs and Dalvin Cook will give them a chance to be competitive in this game.  It’s a Redskins defense that comes in playing well having given up just 12.5 points per game and 277 yards per game in their last two games overall. 

Plus, Kirk Cousins is covering about 2/3 of the time in 1:00 EST games on Sunday’s, but he has shied away from the big stage.  Cousins is only covering about 1/3 of the time with the Vikings in games not in the 1:00 EST Sunday time slot.  Each of the last 10 meetings in this series have been decided by 12 points or less, making for a perfect 10-0 system backing the Redskins pertaining to this 17-point spread. 

Plays on any team (Washington) - after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games against an opponent that went over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take the Redskins Thursday. 

20* Patriots/Jets MNF GAME OF THE MONTH on New York +10 

The New York Jets have been a completely different team with Sam Darnold at quarterback.  In their two games with him this season, they only lost 16-17 to the Bills and upset the Cowboys 24-22 as 7-point dogs.  And they led 16-0 over Buffalo before linebacker C.J. Mosley went out with an injury, and gave up three straight scoring drives late to lose by one. 

Darnold returned from Mono last week and had a great game against the Cowboys, going 23-of-32 passing for 338 yards with two touchdowns and one interception.  They jumped out to a 21-3 lead early before the Cowboys made it interesting late with two touchdowns late in the fourth quarter.  And now, the Jets are expected to get back the quarterback of their defense in Mosley, who is one of the best linebackers in the NFL and has been out since Week 1. 

The Jets want some revenge from a 14-30 road loss to the Patriots as 20.5-point dogs.  They managed to cover that spread despite having the inept Luke Falk at quarterback.  This team had no chance with Falk, and their season numbers are skewed because of having to start him for three games.  The numbers look much better in games with Darnold at quarterback as he is simply picking up where he left off at the end of last year. 

The Patriots are dealing with a ton of injuries themselves, especially on offense where they haven’t looked the greatest in recent weeks despite facing the Bills, Redskins and Giants.  Julian Edelman and Phillip Dorsett are both banged up, but both are expected to play.  Josh Gordon was forced to leave the Giants game last week with a leg injury, and his status is questionable, though I would guess he’s more doubtful.  They lost FB James Devlin to a neck injury and their running game just hasn’t been the same since.  The Patriots only average 102 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry this season.

The Patriots have put up historic numbers defensively thus far this season.  However, it’s worth noting that they have played the single-easiest schedule (32nd) in the entire NFL.  Five of the six teams they have played have two wins or less on the season with the one exception being the Bills, and they probably should have lost that game as they were outgained by 151 yards in that game.  The Jets have played the 10th-toughest schedule as four of the five teams they have faced are .500 or better with the lone exception being the Browns.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (New England) - a good offensive team that averages 27 or more points per game, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NY Jets) - revenging a same-season loss, off a home win are 37-13 (74%) ATS over the last 10 years.  New York is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Jets Monday. 

20* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago Bears -3 

I’m fading the New Orleans Saints again this week.  My handicap wasn’t bad on the Jaguars last week.  I said Teddy Bridgewater and the Saints offense isn’t very good.  And they only scored 13 points against the Jaguars.  But they still won because their defense was lights out and held Gardner Minshew down. 

They keep winning every close game because Bridgewater has been a game manager and their defense has been good enough.  But the streak stops here.  The Saints are way overvalued right now due to being 5-1, but all five victories have come by one score, so they have gone 5-0 in games decided by a touchdown or less.  That’s very tough to sustain.   

The Bears are pissed off coming off a loss to the Raiders in London.  And they’ve had two weeks to get ready for the Saints as they are coming off their bye week.  I’m not concerned at all whether Chase Daniel or Mitchell Trubisky starts for the Bears because I have them power rated the same.  It looks like Trubisky is good to go, and he has the higher ceiling and more mobility.   

The last time we saw the Bears at home they were shutting down the Vikings 16-6.  And they will shut down Bridgewater and the Saints again this week.  Chicago is giving up just 13.8 points per game this season and 8.0 points per game in their two home games against the Packers & Vikings. 

The Saints are averaging just 18.3 points and 278 yards per game on the road this season.  This is the best defense that Bridgewater will have seen yet.  The Saints are giving up 374 yards per game on the road and getting outgained by 96 yards per game in their three road games this year. 

The Bears are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 home games against a team with a winning record.  The Bears are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 home games overall.  They have had a great home-field advantage over the past few seasons.  The Saints have notoriously struggled in road games outdoors on grass because it neutralizes their team speed.  And it’s worth noting their best playmaker in Alvin Kamara is banged up right now.  Take the Bears Sunday. 

25* NFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Rams/Falcons OVER 53.5 

Expect plenty of offensive fireworks in this game between the Rams and Falcons Sunday played inside the Georgia Dome in Atlanta.  It’s perfect conditions for a high-scoring affair between two of the better offenses in the NFL, but also two of the worst defenses in the league. 

The Falcons rank 7th in total offense at 391.3 yards per game.  The Rams are 12th in total offense at 370.8 yards per game.  The Falcons are 26th in total defense, giving up 388.8 yards per game.  And the Rams are 12th in total defense at 346.8 yards per game. 

The Falcons are giving up 31.0 points per game this season.  It’s like their defense has quit, but they have also been hit hard by injuries.  The Falcons have been particularly bad defensively the last two weeks.  They gave up 53 points to the Texans and 34 points to the Cardinals. 

The Rams started the season pretty well defensively against some bad offenses, but they have been very poor defensively the last three weeks.  They gave up 55 points to the Bucs, 30 to the Seahawks and 20 to the 49ers for an average of 35.0 points per game.  I expect both offenses to top 28 points in this one, and likely to get into the 30’s with the winner scoring 40-plus. 

The Rams traded for Jalen Ramsey, and he should play this week.  But they also traded away CB Marcus Peters, lost their best corner in Aqib Talib to a rib injury, and lost one of their best pass rushers in Clay Matthews to a broken jaw.  That helps explain why their defense has been so poor.  Offensively, they should get back Todd Gurley from injury this week, who they didn’t have against the 49ers. 

The Falcons are also dealing with a ton of injuries defensively as they are without S J.J. Wilcox, DT Michael Bennett, S Keanu Neal and S Johnathan Cyprien.  They could also be without CB Desmond Trufant and CB Blidi-Wreh-Wilson, who are both questionable.  These secondary injuries basically give them no chance of stopping anyone.  Matt Ryan has thrown for over 300 yards in every game this season as the Falcons are consistently playing from behind.  Fortunately, they have stayed almost 100% healthy on offense and have a ton of playmakers for Ryan. 

The Rams are 7-0 OVER in their last seven road games after possessing the ball for 26 or fewer minutes and gaining 13 or fewer first downs in their previous game.  The OVER is 5-1 in Rams last six games following an ATS loss.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Atlanta with combined scores of 55, 58, 64 and 51 points.  The OVER is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. 

20* AFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Indianapolis Colts -1 

I really like the spot for the Indianapolis Colts this week.  They are coming off a bye and first place in the AFC South is on the line.  That’s why I’m not concerned at all bout them having any sort of letdown following their big upset road win over the Chiefs last time out. 

The bye week came at a great time because the Colts were really banged up.  Now the Colts should get back several key players this week, including their best defensive player in LB Darius Leonard, who led the NFL in tackles last season.  They’ll be as healthy as they have been at any point in the season this week. 

The Texans could suffer a letdown following their comeback from 14 points down at Kansas City last week to win 31-24.  And they didn’t come out of that game unscathed.  They have a ton of injuries at linebacker and in the secondary, as well as the offensive line.  And those injuries to two starters up front will be where the Texans hurt the most. 

The key to beating the Texans is to sack Deshaun Watson.  The Falcons and the Chiefs weren’t able to get after him the last two weeks, but the Colts will be able to.  The Texans managed just 13 points against the Jaguars, who rank 7th in adjusted sack rate.  The Texans only managed 10 points against the Panthers, who rank 1st in adjusted sack rate.  And the Colts rank 3rd in adjusted sack rate, so they will be in Watson’s face all game long, especially going up against a banged up offensive line. 

The Colts are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.  Indianapolis is 14-3 SU in its last 17 home meetings with Houston.  The Texans are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games off an upset win as an underdog.  Houston is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the Colts Sunday. 

15* Chiefs/Broncos AFC West ANNIHILATOR on Denver +3.5 

The Kansas City Chiefs are broken defensively.  It doesn’t matter how good their offense is, they simply cannot overcome their defensive woes.  And they have so many injuries right now on both sides of the ball that they just can’t get anything fixed.  Plus, they are on a short week here and traveling to play in altitude, making matters worse for them. 

The Chiefs are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They were fortunate to win 34-30 over the Lions three weeks ago on the road, but failed to cover as 7-point favorites.  Then they lost 13-19 as 10.5-point home favorites to the Colts.  And last week they lost 24-31 as 3.5-point home favorites to the Texans.  You know this team is not right when they are losing back-to-back home games. 

The Denver Broncos opened 0-4 and mostly everyone but the guys in the locker room gave up on this team.  They have rebounded with two impressive victories, winning 20-13 on the road over the Chargers as 4.5-point dogs and topping the Titans 16-0 at home as 1-point favorites.  Now, the Broncos know that with a win Thursday they can pull within one game of the Chiefs for the division lead.  That’s why I think they will be the more motivated team here. 

When you look at the numbers, it’s easy to see the Broncos are better than their 2-4 record would indicate.  They have outgained four of their six opponents this season.  They are outgaining foes by 28 yards per game and 0.4 yards per play this year.  They are a lot more healthy than the Chiefs and are expected to get WR Emanuel Sanders back from injury this week.  But look for them to run the football as much as possible and try to control the time of possession, taking a blueprint from the Colts and Texans the last two weeks.   

The Texans rushed 41 times for 192 yards on the Chiefs, while the Colts rushed 45 times for 180 yards.  Teams have gashed the Chiefs on the ground all season.  The Chiefs rank 30th in the NFL against the run, giving up 161.8 rushing yards per game.  They are also tied for 30th in giving up 5.2 yards per carry. 

The Chiefs are having a hard time possessing the ball for long, which is putting their defense in some terrible predicaments.  That’s the knock on Andy Reid is that he gets too pass-happy.  The Chiefs only ran the ball 14 times for 36 yards against the Colts.  They ran even less against the Texans with 11 rushes for 53 yards.  And Reid is stubborn and won’t change his strategy now. 

Patrick Mahomes is battling an ankle injury that has really limited his mobility, and he’s just not the same player right now because of it.  Not to mention, he’s missing some key pieced on offense, including Sammy Watkins and a pair of offensive linemen.  Defensively, the Chiefs are in even worse shape.  They are without their best defensive player in DT Chris Jones.  They are also without DT Xavier Williams.  They could be without CB Kendall Fuller and LB Anthony Hitchens. 

The Broncos played the Chiefs tough in both meetings last year, and they weren’t very good while the Chiefs were one of the best teams in the NFL.  They only lost 23-27 at home as 3.5-point dogs, and they only lost 23-30 on the road as 8.5-point dogs.  They actually outgained the Chiefs 796 to 786 in those two meetings as well and arguably should have won both. 

Plays against any team (Kansas City) - off two or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS since 1983.  The Chiefs are 2-14 ATS in their last 16 games after gaining 6 or more yards per play in four consecutive games.  Kansas City is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games vs. a team with a. Losing record.  The Broncos are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Thursday games.  Roll with the Broncos Thursday. 

20* Lions/Packers ESPN Monday No-Brainer on UNDER 46 

This total seems a little high for two teams with suspect offenses up against two improved defenses.  Plus it’s a division rivalry, so these teams are very familiar with one another.  I expect a low-scoring, defensive battle in this one that stays UNDER the combined total of 46 points.  It also helps that it’s going to be cold out with temperates expected to be 34 degrees Monday night. 

You would be hard-pressed to find a defense that is as improved as much as the Packers are this season.  They are only giving up 18.6 points per game.  They have made some great additions in the secondary throughout the draft, and also acquired some impressive free agents up front.  They have been great against the pass but poor against the run this season. 

The good news for the Packers is that the Lions aren’t a team that runs the football very well as they averaging just 3.9 yards per carry this year.  I expect the Lions to try and utilize their ground game more in this one, which will keep the clock moving.  They do average 31 rush attempts per game, which is way up from normal for them as they try and get their renewed run game going with consistency.  It just hasn’t worked out very well for them. 

The Lions are scoring 24.2 points per game this year, but they have played basically all soft defenses in the Cardinals, Chargers, Eagles and Chiefs.  This will easily be the best defense they have faced yet.  The Packers have struggled offensively, averaging 23.8 points per game but only 337 yards per game. 

Life gets much more difficult for the Packers this week as they have a ton of injury concerns on offense.  They will be without star WR Devante Adams, who is quickly thrusting himself in among the Top 5 receivers in the game.  They could also be without RB Jamaal Williams and C Corey Linsley in this game.  I believe the Lions can slow them down, especially without having to deal with Adams. 

Detroit is 32-16 UNDER in its last 48 road games after allowing 30 points or more last game.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Packers last five vs. NFC North opponents.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Lions last six games following a bye week.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Lions last six games following a loss. 

Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (Green Bay) - after going over the total by 28 or more points in their last three games, a good team winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 34-11 (75.6%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday. 

15* Steelers/Chargers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Pittsburgh +7 

The Los Angeles Chargers just can’t be this heavily favored at home.  They are 1-2 at home this season with their only win coming over the Colts in overtime.  They were also upset by the Texans and the Broncos at home this year.  They simply have no home-field advantage with a tiny stadium and fair-weather fans. 

The Steelers travel well, and I won’t be surprised if this feels like a home game for them based on what I’ve seen out of the Chargers in the past.  They should not be catching 7 points here, not even with a third-string quarterback after Mason Rudolph was knocked out with a concussion last week. 

I love the story of Steelers’ QB Devlin Hodges.  He was lightly recruited out of high school and chose to stay closer to home and attend Samford.  All he did was go on to becoming the FCS record holder in career passing yards with 14,584, breaking the previous record held by Steve McNair.  Despite that, he wound up going undrafted. 

Hodges kept his poise, and he earned a practice squad spot on the Steelers.  He kept making plays and great throws in practice, and eventually made the 53-man roster to be the backup QB last week.  And he held his own when replacing Rudolph, completing 7-of-9 passes for 68 yards in the OT loss to the Ravens.  It certainly wasn’t his fault they lost that game.  Hodges is a guy that plays with a chip on his shoulder, and now he has a full week of practice to prepare to be the starter. 

No team has been hit harder by injuries than the Chargers, which is why they shouldn’t be this heavily favored.  They are without S Derwin James, T Russell Okung, S Adrian Phillips, WR Dontrell Inman, K Michael Badgley and C Mike Pouncey.  They could also be without TE Hunter Henry and DE Melvin Ingram, who are both questionable after missing last week.  These injuries are a big reason why the Chargers are just 2-3 this season.  Their only blowout win by more than 6 points came against the Miami Dolphins, the worst team in the NFL. 

Conversely, the Steelers have only been blown out once, and that was the opener at New England.  Their other three losses all came by 4 points or less, so I think they are undervalued right now because of their 1-4 record when they could easily be 3-2.  The Steelers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS win.  The Chargers are 11-28-1 ATS in their last 40 home games.  Roll with the Steelers Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Vikings -3 

The Minnesota Vikings showed some resiliency following their lackluster road loss to the Bears in Week 4.  They bounced back with a 28-10 road win over the New York Giants in a game that wasn’t even that close.  The Vikings outgained the Giants 490 to 211 and really should have won by even more. 

Now, the Vikings return home where they have one of the best home-field advantages in the entire NFL.  No stadium gets louder than Minnesota, and they have dominated in both of their home games this season.  They are 2-0 and outscoring their opponents by 18.0 PPG.  They beat the Falcons 28-12 before crushing the Raiders 34-14. 

Mike Zimmer is 31-12 ATS in all home games as the coach of the Vikings.  He has been even better as a home favorite when he has stepped outside the division.  In fact, the Zimmer is 20-2 SU & 18-2-2 ATS as a home favorite against non-division opponents as the coach of Minnesota. 

The Eagles are getting a little too much love for their 31-6 home win over the hapless New York Jets last week.  Keep in mind this is a team that has lost to the Lions and Falcons this year, and they barely beat the Redskins.  And the injury situation is not a good one for the Eagles.  They are without DT Malik Jackson, DT Timmy Jernigan, WR DeSean Jackson, CB Ronald Darby, CB Avonte Maddox and RB Darren Sproles. 

I think those two losses at defensive tackle in Jackson and Jernigan hurt the Eagles more than anything in this matchup with the Vikings.  Minnesota has a renewed focus on running the football on offense this year.  The Vikings are executing it to perfection as they are rushing for 166 yards per game and 5.4 yards per carry this season.  This is easily the best rushing attack that the Eagles have faced yet as they have almost exclusively gone up against pass-heavy teams.  Only one team has tried to run the ball more than 20 times on the Eagles this year. 

The Vikings are 7-0 ATS in home games when the total is 42.5 to 49 over the last 2 seasons.  The Vikings are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Minnesota is 38-16-1 ATS in its last 55 home games overall.  Carson Wentz will be up against the best defense he has faced this year, and I expect him to struggle.  Take the Vikings Sunday. 

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Jacksonville Jaguars -1 

I’ve been so impressed with rookie QB Gardner Minshew of the Jaguars.  He has single-handedly injected life into this Jaguars team following their Week 1 loss to the Chiefs.  They have gone 3-1 ATS since Minshew took over.  And in three of his four games, he has led a late drive in the 4th quarter to give his team a chance to win.  All three of those games were on the road, too. 

The Jaguars only lost by 1 at Houston after falling inches short on a 2-point conversion.  They got a late score to beat the Broncos 26-24 outright as underdogs in Denver.  And last week Minshew was chucking it into the end zone in the final seconds of a 27-34 loss at Carolina.  They also beat Tennessee 20-7 in his lone home start in a game that was never in doubt. 

Minshew is completing 67% of his passes for 1,279 yards with a 9-to-1 TD/INT ratio this season.  This is a Jaguars offense that just put up 507 total yards on a good Panthers defense last week.  They had 455 yards on the Broncos last week.  I think the last time we’ve seen a Jacksonville offense this explosive was back in the Mark Brunell days.  The threat of Minshew has opened up running lanes for Leonard Fournette as well as the Jaguars have rushed for an average of 209 yards per game the last two weeks. 

It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Saints.  They are off to a 4-1 start this season despite losing Drew Brees in Week 2.  They have played four straight games against NFC teams, and they are coming off a division win last week over the Bucs.  Now they step out of conference and won’t be nearly as motivated here against the Jaguars. 

The Saints have not put up very good numbers at all in their two road games this year.  They have been outgained by an average of 193 yards per game in their road games against the Rams and Seahawks.  The Jaguars simply need this win more as they sit at 2-3 on the season.  I expect them to get it Sunday done Sunday at home with the help of a Saints team that won’t be as interested. 

Jacksonville is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games after gaining six or more yards per play in two consecutive games.  Fans will be excited to see Minshew in action because he hasn’t played at home in nearly a month with their last home game on September 19th.  They’ll have a bigger home-field advantage than normal as a result.  And there’s a good chance Jacksonville gets back CB Jalen Ramsey from injury this week.  Bet the Jaguars Sunday. 

15* Giants/Patriots Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New England -16.5 

Tom Brady is on record saying this is the best defense he has ever played with in New England.  That’s hard to argue when you look at the numbers this defense has put up since the Super Bowl last year, and frankly since the second half of last season in general. 

The defense has allowed just two touchdowns total in their last six games, which is two touchdowns in 24 quarters.  That’s hard to do in today’s NFL.  Two touchdowns they’ve given up this season have been via special teams and on offense, so we don’t count those.  They are the top ranked team in scoring defense at 6.8 points per game and total defense at 238.4 yards per game. 

Now, you can only imagine what this defense is going to do to a rookie quarterback in Daniel Jones who is missing almost all of his top weapons.  Top RB Saquon Barkley and backup RB Wayne Gallman have been ruled out, and the Giants are bringing up Jon Hillman from the practice squad to fill in for them.  Top receiver Sterling Shepard won’t play after suffering a concussion last week, and the best weapon in TE Evan Engram is questionable with a knee injury. 

Jones clearly has his hands full.  This game will go similar to last week’s 10-28 home loss to the Vikings, who also have a strong defense.  That game was a bigger blowout than the final score even showed as the Vikings outgained the Giants 490 to 211 in total yards, outgaining them by 279 yards for the game. 

The Vikings had really struggled on offense prior to gaining 490 yards on this soft New York defense.  It’s a Giants defense that ranks 30th in the NFL in giving up 409.4 yards per game.  The Giants have cluster injuries at linebacker with three LB’s questionable, and their best LB in Ryan Connelly out for the season.  Tom Brady and company should be able to score at will on them.  The Vikings ran for 211 yards on them last year. 

The Patriots are scoring 31.0 points per game and averaging 378.6 yards per game.  This is the worst defense they have faced yet this season outside the Dolphins, who they beat 43-0.  The Patriots are 5-0 this season with four of those wins coming by 16 points or more, so I’m not afraid to lay 16.5 points with them here. 

New England is 13-2 ATS vs. poor passing defenses that allow 235 or more passing yards per game over the last three seasons.  The Patriots are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  New England is 43-19 ATS in its last 62 games overall.  The Patriots are 40-17-2 ATS in their last 59 home games.  Bet the Patriots Thursday. 

20* Browns/49ers ESPN Monday No-Brainer on San Francisco -3 

The San Francisco 49ers have finally remained healthy this season, and head coach Kyle Shanahan has shown what he can do with this team that has stockpiled a ton of talent through the draft and has been ready to break out.  They have certainly broken out this season as they are off to as impressive a 3-0 start as anyone in the NFL thus far. 

The 49ers have outscored their three opponents by a combined 42 points.  The numbers they’ve put up show that it has been no fluke.  The 49ers rank 4th in total offense at 421.0 yards per game while averaging 32 points per game.  They are 3rd in total defense, giving up just 283.3 yards per game and 18 points per game.  They are the only team in the NFL to rank in the Top 5 in both categories.   

The 49ers are averaging 6.3 yards per play on offense and giving up only 4.7 yards per play on defense.  As you can see, they are outgaining opponents by 1.6 yards per play, which is one of the best marks in the entire NFL and is probably the most important stat when handicapping games.   

Jimmy G is getting into a rhythm offensively, and he is helped by an elite rushing attack that is averaging 175 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry.  And this young defense has arguably the best front seven in the entire NFL thanks to mostly first-round draft picks across the board. 

The Browns are getting too much respect here for their 40-25 beating of the Ravens last week.  That’s a Baltimore team that ranks last in the NFL in total defense.  Baker Mayfield really struggled in his first three games before having his best game of the season against the Ravens.  He’ll go back to struggling this week against a defense that I believe is the best he will have faced up to this point in the 49ers.  The Browns only averaged 16.3 points per game in their first three.  And I don’t think they handle success very well. 

The 49ers are hungry to be a winning team this year and take down the NFC West division.  They are starving for wins.  They have had such bad luck in the injury department in recent years, which has held them back.  Shanahan has done a good job of getting the most out of what he has had to work with.  Now, he has one of the best rosters in the NFL.  That’s why I’m not concerned about the 49ers getting overconfident or lacking hunger.  I think the bye week will have them re-focused and even healthier now, and there’s no question they want to show the world how good they are on Monday Night Football this week. 

Cleveland is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games off a win by 10 points or more against a division opponent.  San Francisco is 32-11 ATS in its last 43 Monday Night Football games.  The Browns are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a win by more than 14 points. 

Plays against road underdogs or PK (Cleveland) - off an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog, with a winning percentage between 45% & 55% on the season are 33-10 (76.7%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the 49ers Monday. 

15* Ravens/Steelers AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh +3.5 

The Baltimore Ravens are probably the most overrated team in the NFL right now.  They should not be 3.5-point road favorites over the rival Steelers.  In fact, this is the largest home underdog role for the Steelers ever in the Tomlin vs. Harbaugh series.  And it’s worth noting that 13 of the last 25 meetings in this series were decided by 3 points or less, so there’s definitely value getting the Steelers +3.5 this week. 

The reason the Ravens are overrated is because they have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  They rank 27th in total defense in giving up 395.5 yards per game.  They are also dead last in yards per play (7.0) allowed.  They gave up 33 points and 503 total yards to the Chiefs two weeks ago.  And last week they allowed 40 points and 520 total yards to the Browns, a Browns offense that had been struggling prior to that game. 

I think the Steelers are underrated because they opened 0-3 this season against a brutal schedule that featured road games at the Patriots and 49ers, as well as a home loss to the Seahawks.  Well, those three teams are a combined 11-1 this season.  And they gave the Seahawks and 49ers a run for their money, only losing by a combined 6 points to those two. 

I was on the Steelers Monday night in their ‘get right’ game against the Bengals.  They did not disappoint as they dominated in a 27-3 victory.  The offense finally got going under Mason Rudolph with 260 passing yards.  They got created with the wild cat package, too, and I’m sure they have more tricks up their sleeve that the Ravens won’t be prepared for this week.  They also held the Bengals to 175 total yards and have a better defense than they showed in the first three weeks of the season. 

The Steelers have always been better with their backs against the wall under Mike Tomlin.  They have covered 70% of the time when they’ve had a losing record.  Despite the 1-3 start, the Steelers are only one game back in the AFC North.  If they win this week and the Browns lose at San Francisco Monday night, they’ll actually be tied for first place in the division.  They still have all of their goals in front of them. 

The Ravens are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a loss.  Baltimore is 0-5 ATS in its last five vs. AFC North opponents.  The Steelers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.  The underdog is 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  These four trends combine for a 23-2 system backing Pittsburgh.  Roll with the Steelers Sunday. 

15* Bears/Raiders London No-Brainer on Oakland +5.5 

Bettors and oddsmakers alike just don’t want to give the Oakland Raiders any credit.  They have been an underdog of 3 points or more in all four games this season, and a dog of 6 or more three times.  Yet, they’ve managed to go 2-2 and I believe they are better than they are getting credit for.  That’s why I’ll ‘buy low’ on the Raiders again this week just as I did last week when they beat the Colts 31-24 outright as 6-point dogs on the road. 

Conversely, the betting public is quick to back the Bears after winning three straight coming in.  But two of those wins were against winless Denver and Washington, who are a combined 0-8.  And the other was a 16-6 home win last week against an overrated Minnesota Vikings team.  I just don’t think the Bears can be laying big points when their offense averages just 16.5 points per game while ranking 30th in total offense at 273.5 yards per game.  Their defense is elite, but they can only carry this team so far. 

Jon Gruden and Derek Carr are clearly on the same page this season.  He is having a great year as Carr is completing 72.1% of his passes for 888 yards with a 6-to-3 TD/INT ratio thus far.  He loves his two new targets in Tyrell Williams and Darren Waller.  Williams has 17 receptions for 216 yards and four touchdowns, and Waller has been a matchup nightmare that will exploit this Bears defense.  He has already caught 33 balls for 320 yards.  Plus, rookie Josh Jacobs has rushed for 307 yards and two scores while averaging 5.0 per carry. 

One key reason I’m backing the Raiders is because they are used to this trip to London, and I agree with their approach of flying out early rather than flying out late like the Bears did.  Last season, the Raiders flew in late in the week, and didn’t put up much of a fight in a 27-3 loss to a very good Seahawks team at Wembley Stadium.  Coach Jon Gruden takes full responsibility for that showing. 

“I learned a valuable lessen,” Gruden said.  “We need a little more time to get acclimated.  It’s my first time last year coming to London and playing football.  I’m used to playing home games at home.  I made a mistake, tried to correct it this year and hopefully it shows on the field.” 

“My body feel better, I know our team feels better,” Carr said.  “Having that day off when you first get here, and then having another day off after that to rest and get right and eat, get your metabolism going back the right way.  As a family man I hate it, but as a quarterback I love it.  I think coming the whole week is a good move.” 

The Bears spent all week begging their players to fall asleep on their overnight flight, which separated Chicago around dinnertime Thursday and landed in London around breakfast Friday morning.  Chicago receiver Allen Robinson has played overseas three times as a member of the Jaguars, the NFL’s unofficial London team. 

“It’s a rude awakening,” Robinson said.  “I’ll be honest; It isn’t an easy trip.  You’ve got to get over there, and you’ve got to get acclimated quickly.  It’s a long flight.  As soon as you land, you’re starting your day.  My advice to the team would be to go to sleep as soon as you get on the plane.  It’s such a different agenda than you’re accustomed to, as far as sleep patters.” 

Chicago is 13-33 ATS in its last 46 road games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better.  The Bears are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games off three consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better.  The Raiders won’t be giving the Bears the same turnover gifts that the last three teams they have faced have.  And I like that the Raiders will feel normal having gone to London early in the week to get acclimated, while the Bears’ bodies won’t quite be used to it in time for this game.  Take the Raiders Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Atlanta Falcons +5 

It’s do or die for the Atlanta Falcons this week.  They sit at 1-3, two games behind the Saints in the NFC South and alone in last place in the division.  This is a must-win for them, and I like backing teams where I know I’m going to get their max effort. 

It’s also time to ‘buy low’ on the Falcons after most bettors have given up on them after their 1-3 start.  But when you look at the numbers, this is much better than a 1-3 team.  The Falcons are improved defensively this season as they are 8th in total defense, giving up 324.8 yards per game.  They are 12th in total offense, averaging 382.8 yards per game.  They are outgaining opponents by 58 yards per game and 0.7 yards per play as they average 6.0 yards per play on offense and give up 5.3 yards per play on defense.  Those are numbers of a 3-1 team, not a 1-3 team. 

The Houston Texans are 2-2, but they have the numbers of a 1-3 team.  They are 22nd in total offense at 329.2 yards per game and 5.5 yards per play.  They are 17th in total defense, giving up 363.5 yards per game and 5.7 per play.  The problem with their offense is their offensive line and Deshaun Watson holding onto the ball too long.   

In fact, Watson has now been sacked at least 4 times in nine of their last 10 games.  They led the league in giving up 61 sacks last year and are well on their way to leading the league in that category again.  You’d think head coach Bill O’Brien would do more to protect Watson and make sure the ball gets out quicker, but that’s just not happening.  Those negative plays keep wrecking drives. 

The Texans have scored just 10, 13 and 7 points in their last three home games dating back to their loss to the Colts in the playoffs last year.  They are averaging just 10.0 points per game.  It’s hard to lay points with a team like the Texans who just haven’t been able to score at home, let alone lay more than a field goal, which you have to do if you want to back the Texans here.  This line should be a field goal or less, and that’s why I think there’s tremendous value with the Falcons here. 

Atlanta is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 road games after allowing 24 points or more in the first half last game.  Houston is 13-28 ATS in its last 41 games vs. excellent offensive teams that average 375 or more yards per game.  The Falcons are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.   

Plays on road teams (Atlanta) a good passing team (265 PYPG or more) against a poor pass defense (230-265 PYPG allowed), after allowing 7 or more passing yards per attempts in two straight games are 33-8 (80.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  At some point, the Falcons are going to stop self-destructing and living up to their potential, and I’m betting on it being this week.  Bet the Falcons Sunday. 

20* NFL DOG OF THE MONTH on New York Giants +6 

I’ve been on the Giants in both games since Daniel Jones took over at quarterback and they haven’t disappointed.  They erased an 18-point deficit at Tampa Bay and won 32-31 as 6.5-point underdogs.  And last week they dominated from start to finish in a 24-3 rout of the Redskins at home.  Jones just gives this team a huge boost as they know they have a chance with him under center.   

He completed over 85% of his passes in the preseason with 416 yards and two touchdowns with zero interceptions and a 137.3 QBR.  He has carried over that success to the regular season.  Jones is completing 69% of his passes for 578 yards and 8.1 yards per attempt through two games.  He has the 3rd-best QBR in the league right now.  His mobility is what really gives this offense a boost as he has rushed for 66 yards and two scores on 6.6 per carry through two games. 

Heck, what was a bad defense though the first three weeks even stepped their game up in a big way last week, and I have no doubt it’s the boost they got from Jones at quarterback.  The Giants limited the Redskins to just 176 total yards and forced 4 turnovers.  Now a weak Vikings offense comes to town and the Giants should not be catching 5.5 points at home in this one. 

Kirk Cousins has been awful this season as the Vikings are averaging just 169 passing yards per game.  The Vikings have wanted to run the football more this year is part of the reason, but there’s just no fixing Cousins at this point.  The Giants have done a good job of stopping the run this year, holding opponents to 110 rushing yards per game and 3.9 per carry. 

Jones is forming a great chemistry with Sterling Shepard and Evan Ingram, his two best weapons.  And now the Giants get Golden Tate back from a 4-game suspension.  They didn’t miss Saquon Barkley at all last week.  Backup Wayne Gallman rushed for 63 yards and a touchdown and added 6 receptions for 55 yards and a score.  I think the Barkley injury is overblown and being factored into the line too much once again. 

The Vikings are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games and have lost both road games to the Packers and Bears this season.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.  Minnesota is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after allowing less than 90 rushing yards in its previous game.  New York is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six games after gaining 350 or more total yards in its previous game. 

Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NY Giants) - after allowing 14 points or less last game against an opponent that scored 3 points or less in the first half last game are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Finally, the Giants’ home-field advantage is bigger than it normally is in the short-term because fans are excited about Jones, and we saw that last week against the Redskins.  Bet the Giants Sunday. 

20* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Tennessee Titans -2.5 

I am on the Tennessee Titans this week despite the fact that they are a tough team to figure out.  They’ve gone on the road and beaten both Cleveland and Atlanta in blowouts to flash their potential.  But they also lost at home to the Colts and had a no-show at Jacksonville.  However, I trust them more than the Bills this week. 

It’s a terrible spot for Buffalo.  They feel like they should be 4-0.  They blew a golden opportunity against the team they hate the most in the Patriots last week.  They dominated the box score, but committed 4 turnovers and gave up a special teams touchdown to gift-wrap the game to the Patriots. 

This has hangover written all over it.  It’s the type of loss that beats a team twice because they still aren’t over it the next week, which usually leads to a bad week of practice and another poor performance.  Not to mention, they lost starting QB Josh Allen to a concussion in the loss and he’s unlikely to play this week. 

Meanwhile, the Titans are almost fully healthy and get back their best offensive lineman in Tayler Lewan from a 4-game suspension.  He will certainly help in pass protection and run blocking as the Titans love to run behind their road grader.  The Titans also want revenge from a 12-13 loss in Buffalo last season in which they gave the game away with 3 turnovers. 

Both teams are pretty equal defensively as the Bills give up 15.7 points per game this season, while the Titans give up 15.5 points per game.  But there’s no question the Titans have the edge on offense.  They average 22.7 points per game, while the Bills average just 19.0 points per game.  And the Bills will be severely handicapped if Matt Barkley starts over Allen.  We are getting a line here that indicates Allen will start, but if he is out then this line will sure go to -3.5 or higher. 

The Titans are 26-13 ATS in their last 39 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less.  Tennessee is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record.  They seem to show up against the better teams in the NFL.  They will want it more than the Bills this week, who are still hungover from that Patriots loss.  Take the Titans Sunday. 

25* NFC West GAME OF THE YEAR on Seattle Seahawks PK 

The Seattle Seahawks want revenge from losing two heartbreakers to the Rams 31-33 at home and 31-36 on the road last year.  They really feel like they can win the division this year, and this Thursday night home game will play a big role in whether they do or not. 

The Seahawks are off to a 3-1 start this season.  Their only loss came to the Saints in a fluky final as the Saints had two non-offensive touchdowns in that game, but the Saints outgained them by 249 yards.  They also outgained the Steelers by 164 yards in their 28-26 road win in Week 2.  And last week they handled their business in a 27-10 road win at Arizona, so they should still be fresh as they put it on cruise control in the second half. 

The Rams opened 3-0 and were fortunate to win by 3 at Carolina and by 7 at Cleveland with a goal line stand at the end.  And they also were fortunate when Drew Brees got hurt early in the game against the Saints and they ended up winning comfortably as the Saints weren’t prepared to lose their leader. 

Last week, the Rams were finally exposed in their 40-55 home loss to the Bucs as 9-point favorites.  They fell behind 21-0 early and were using the hurry up to try and get back in the game the rest of the way.  They used a ton of energy trying to come back in that shootout, which makes matters worse for them here on a short week with travel.  They will clearly still be fatigued. 

The Rams could not contain the run against the Seahawks last season.  Seattle rushed for a combined 463 yards in their two meetings with the Rams last season, an average of 231.5 yards per game.  Look for them to ground and pound them to death again.   

Todd Gurley isn’t the same player he was last year, and he has just 219 rushing yards on 49 carries for 4.5 per carry on the season.  Gurley isn’t being used as much in the passing game, either, as he has just 11 receptions for 62 yards.  Jared Goff isn’t very good with a 6-to-6 TD/INT ratio on the season and I almost certainly believe the Rams are regretting their decision to give him a big contract. 

Seattle is 8-1 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 64% or better over the last two seasons.  The Seahawks are 9-2 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 5.65 or more yards per play over the last two years.  The Rams are 31-64-1 ATS in their last 96 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Seahawks are 7-0-1 ATS in their last nine Thursday games.  Seattle is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 home meetings with the Rams. 

Plays on home teams (Seattle) - after three consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Seahawks Thursday. 

20* Bengals/Steelers ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Pittsburgh -3 

Now that this line has moved down to Pittsburgh -3 I think it’s time to pull the trigger on the Steelers.  I still believe they are the better team here even without Ben Roethlisberger, so getting them -3 at home is pretty cheap. 

The Steelers have lost a couple close games to two very good teams since Mason Rudolph took over for Ben Roethlisberger in Week 2.  They lost 26-28 at home to the Seahawks and 20-24 on the road to the 49ers.  Those are two common opponents with the Bengals.  The Bengals lost 20-21 to the Seahawks and played them similarly.  However, they were blitzed by the 49ers at home 17-41. 

While the Steelers are very healthy outside Big Ben, the Bengals have all kinds of injury concerns heading into this game.  DE Carlos Dunlap, T Andre Smith, DE Sam Hubbard, T Cordy Glenn, DE Carl Lawson, G Michael Jordan and DT Ryan Glasgow are all questionable for this game.  CB Darius Phillips, CB Darqueze Denard, WR AJ Green and G Alex Redmond are all out. 

The Steelers have only averaged 17 rush attempts per game this season, which is not what they want as they are passing on 67% of their plays.  They will certainly take a look at that leading up to this game and try to get James Conner going.  It’s the perfect opponent for Conner to break out as the Bengals are allowing 169 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry.  That will help take some pressure off of Rudolph. 

Bets against underdogs of PK (Cincinnati) - an good offensive team averaging 5.8 or more yards per play against a defense that is allowing 5.8 or more yards per play, after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Bengals gave up 572 total yards to the 49ers and 416 total yards to the Bills the last two weeks.  Their defense simply cannot be trusted, and I believe the Steelers have by far the superior stop unit in this one.  

The Steelers have won 42 of their last 56 meetings with the Bengals.  They have won 8 straight in this series and are 11-1 SU in the last 12 meetings.  Bet the Steelers Monday. 

20* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Tampa Bay Bucs +10 

I think this is a great time to fade the Los Angeles Rams.  They are off to a 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS start this season, and now they are overvalued.  They only beat Carolina by 3 in the opener.  They got a great break with an injury to Drew Brees in Week 2 that allowed them to beat the Saints.  And last week they needed a goal-line stand in the final seconds to beat the Browns by 7. 

Plus, the Rams have two huge division games coming up the next two weeks with games against the Seahawks and 49ers.  And they are coming off a primetime game on Sunday Night Football against the Browns.  This is a sandwich spot here against the Bucs, and I don’t expect them to have their full focus. 

The Bucs have lost at home to the 49ers and Giants by giving the game away.  They had four turnovers against the 49ers and two pick 6’s.  And last week they blew an 18-point lead to the Giants, and missed a chip shot field goal at the buzzer that would have won it.  I think the fact that they lost that game instead of winning it has them undervalued as well when clearly they should have won. 

The Bucs just seem to play better on the road when they get away from the negativity that surrounds Jameis Winston at home.  They went on the road in Week 2 and beat the Panthers 20-14 as 6.5-point dogs.  And they’ll relish this opportunity to face the defending NFC champs here on the road Sunday. 

The Rams just don’t have much of a home-field advantage.  And Jared Goff just isn’t that good with a 4-to-3 TD/INT ratio this season and only 7.0 yards per attempt.  Todd Gurley isn’t himself as he clearly has a knee problem.  The Rams have hardly used him in the passing game since the knee injury popped up late last year.  He’s only a shell of his former self when he’s not catching balls out of the backfield. 

I would definitely argue that Jameis Winston just put together two of his best games in a row in his career.  I think Bruce Arians is starting to get through to him. Winston was 16-of-25 for 208 yards and a touchdown with zero turnovers against the Panthers on the road two weeks ago.  And last week he threw for 380 yards with three touchdowns and one interception.  He’s done everything he could do to win both of those games. 

Tampa Bay may have the best defense it has had in years.  Todd Bowles took over as defensive coordinator, and the Bucs added some great pieces in LB Shaq Barrett (8 sacks) and DT Ndamukong Suh.  The combination of Suh and Vita Vea up the middle makes them very tough to run against.  And Barrett has provided a tremendous pass rush.  The Bucs are only allowing 330.7 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play, holding opponents to 68 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play less than their season averages. 

The Bucs are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  The Rams are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 home games against a team with a losing record.  Tampa Bay is 35-19 ATS in its last 54 games after scoring 30 points or more last game.  Arians is 15-4 ATS after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game in all games he has coached.  Bet the Bucs Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New York Giants -2.5 

I was on the Giants last week against the Bucs and I’m riding them for many of the same reasons this week.  Finally, they decided to bench Eli Manning and go with first-round pick Daniel Jones.  This upgrade at quarterback clearly gave them a boost last week, and now fans will come out in full force to watch Jones in his first career home start this week against the hapless Washington Redskins. 

Jones was dynamite in the preseason.  He completed 29-of-34 passes (85.3%) for 416 yards with two touchdowns and zero interceptions with a 137.3 QBR.  He is the real deal, and he’s playing with a chip on his shoulder after everyone thought it was a terrible pick by the Giants to draft him that early.  He’s ready to prove his doubters wrong. 

Jones got off to a flying start last week by leading the Giants back from an 18-point deficit to beat the Bucs 32-31 on the road.  Eli Manning would never have been able to lead that kind of comeback.  Jones completed 23-of-36 passes for 336 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions.  He also rushed for 28 yards and two scores, including the game-winner.  HIs mobility is certainly what separates him from Manning. 

The Redskins are a dumpster fire.  They are 0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS this season.  They didn’t commit a single turnover in each of their first two games, yet still lost to the Eagles by 5 and Cowboys by 10.  Then they fell apart and committed five turnovers on Monday in a 15-31 home loss to the Bears.  Now the Redskins are on a short week and have a ton of injury concerns. 

The Reedskins are already without TE Jordan Reed, CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, RB Derrius Guice, LB Reuben Foster and T Trent Williams.  Those are five starters they are without.  Plus, they could be without G Brandon Sherff and WR Terry McLaurin, who are both questionable.  McLaurin would be a huge loss as he’s the team’s leading receiver with 16 receptions for 257 yards and three touchdowns.  The team is already short on weapons.  Plus, QB Case Keenum was in a walking boot all week and won’t be 100% if he goes. 

I think the Giants are undervalued due to the Saquon Barkley injury.  Backup Wayne Gallman is worth a point less than Barkley at most and RB injuries are always overrated.  Plus, they didn’t need much of a running game against the Bucs last week with just 72 rushing yards compared to 312 passing yards.  They should be able to move the ball at will against a Redskins defense that is allowing 31.3 points and 402.7 yards per game, including 261 passing yards per game and 79% completions to opposing quarterbacks. 

The Giants are 15-2 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing 17 points or more in the first half of two straight games.  Plays on home teams (NY Giants) - after three consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Roll with the Giants Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Dolphins +15.5 

It’s finally time to jump in on the Miami Dolphins and ‘buy low’ on them Sunday.  They are off to an 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS start and have been one of the worst teams in NFL history thus far.  However, I saw some signs from them last week against the Cowboys that are buy signs moving forward. 

The Dolphins had a chance to lead at halftime but turned it over deep in Dallas territory and went into the break down 10-6.  They were outscored 21-0 after intermission, but clearly deserved to cover the 22.5-point spread.  They failed on a 4th down from the Dallas 40-yard line late, and the Cowboys tacked on a late touchdown to get the cover. 

Miami clearly showed a lot of fight last week against the Cowboys, and a big reason was because they made the switch to Josh Rosen at quarterback.  He did about as well as you could expect.  The Dolphins even attempted an onside kick in the first half, showing that they were going for the win.  And now this week the Dolphins should get back some key players in WR Albert Wilson and S Rashad Jones from injury. 

The Chargers are just doing Chargers things once again this season.  They needed overtime to beat the Colts in Week 1 after letting a double-digit lead slip away.  They had two touchdowns called back and fumbled from the Detroit 1-yard line in a 10-13 loss at the Lions.  And last week they blew a 17-7 halftime lead and lost 20-27 at home to the Texans. 

The Chargers are having a tough time overcoming their plethora of injuries.  They are without RB Melvin Gordon, S Derwin James, T Russell Okung, TE Hunter Henry and S Adrian Phillips.  Not to mention, WR Mike Williams, CB Casey Hayward, WR Travis Benjamin, TE Virgil Green and K Michael Badgley are all questionable this week.  No team has been hit harder by injuries, and the Chargers are clearly struggling to cope with the losses of so many key players. 

Plays on any team (Miami) - after scoring 9 points or less in two straight games are 33-10 (76.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The schedule couldn’t have been much more difficult to this point with games against the Ravens, Patriots and Cowboys, which is part of the reason they have struggled so badly.  The Chargers are easily the worst team they’ve faced yet, and they will be more competitive in this game than oddsmakers anticipate.  Bet the Dolphins Sunday. 

15* AFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Oakland Raiders +7 

The Oakland Raiders got off to a great start this season with a 24-16 upset win over the Broncos are 3-point underdogs.  But then they ran into two juggernauts in the Chiefs at home and Vikings on the road and were pretty much blown out in both games.  Now I think it’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Raiders as they face a team they can handle here in the Indianapolis Colts. 

I believe the Colts are overvalued now after going 2-1 SU & 2-0-1 ATS through their first three games.  They lost in OT to the Chargers on the road in Week 1 after coming back from a 15-point deficit.  They squeaked out a 19-17 win over the Titans are 3-point road dogs in Week 2, and also beat the Falcons 27-24 at home as 1-point favorites last week. 

As you can see, all three of the Colts’ games this season have been decided by 6 points or less.  I believe this game goes down to the wire as well, so there’s a ton of value on the Raiders catching the full touchdowns.  The Colts aren’t a team built to blow out opponents with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback.  He is a game manager who won’t beat his own team, but he’s also not capable of running up the score on anyone with his limited abilities. 

Derek Carr is having a solid season for the Raiders.  He is completing 73.5% of his passes for 699 yards with a 4-to-3 TD/INT ratio and 7.1 yards per attempt.  He has faced a gauntlet of defenses thus far in the Broncos, Vikings and Chiefs.  He has found a nice chemistry with two new receivers in TE Darren Waller (26 receptions, 267 yards) and WR Tyrell Williams, (14, 180 3 TD). 

The Colts have a ton of injury concerns heading into this game, while the Raiders will be getting some key players back from injury.  The Colts just lost CB Malik Hooker for 4-6 weeks with a knee injury.  Last year’s leading tackler LB Darius Leonard is out with a concussion.  T.Y. Hilton suffered a quad strain last week and is questionable to play this week.  The Colts are actually getting outgained on the season. 

Plays against favorites (Indianapolis) - off a home win, in the first month of the season are 79-39 (66.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Jon Gruden is 13-4 ATS after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game in all games he has coached.  The Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  Take the Raiders Sunday. 

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Kansas City Chiefs -6 

Believe it or not, this will actually be the first meaningful game for Patrick Mahomes in a dome in his NFL career.  Just imagine what that explosive offense with a ton of speed is going to do to this Detroit Lions defense on the turf inside Ford Field Sunday.  It’s not going to be pretty for the Lions. 

Mahomes is having another huge season already.  He is completing 71.9% of his passes for 1,195 yards with 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions through three games.  He is averaging a whopping 10.5 yards per attempt.  He has unlimited weapons in Sammy Watkins, Travis Kelce, Demarcus Robinson, Mecole Hardman and a three-headed monster in the backfield with the addition of LeSean McCoy.  They’ve been able to afford the injury to Tyreek Hill without skipping a beat. 

The Lions will get a reality check here.  They are off to a 2-0-1 SU & 2-1 ATS start this season.  They allowed Kyler Murray and the Cardinals to come back from an 18-point deficit in Week 1.  That’s a Cardinals team that just lost by 18 at home to Carolina.  They were lucky to beat the Chargers by 3 in Week 2 as they were outgained by 86 yards.  The Chargers had two touchdowns called back and fumbled going in from the 1-yard line.  And last week they took advantage of a banged-up Eagles team and won by 3 despite getting outgained by 86 yards.  They could easily be 0-3 instead. 

This is a Lions defense that ranks 23rd in total defense in giving up 394.7 yards per game this season.  That’s not good news for them going up against Mahomes and company.  In four college games in his career, Mahomes averaged 492 passing yards per game in domes, which was 126 yards more than his averages.  And in one preseason game he averaged 11.5 yards per attempt.  They are going to get lit up, and the Lions don’t have the weapons to match Mahomes score for score. 

The Lions are 0-6 ATS against teams with a turnover margin of +1 or more per game over the last three seasons.  They are losing by 14.2 points per game on average in this spot.  The Chiefs are 6-0 ATS in road games off two or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons.  Kansas City is 7-0 ATS in the first month of the season over the last two years.  The Lions are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  These four trends combine for a perfect 24-0 system backing Kansas City.  Take the Chiefs Sunday. 

20* Eagles/Packers NFC No-Brainer on Philadelphia +4.5 

This is a great ‘buy low, sell high’ situation.  We’ll ‘buy low’ on the Eagles, who are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS this season and basically in a must-win situation Thursday night.  We’ll ’sell high’ on the Packers, who are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS and now overvalued because of it. 

I think we are at least getting a point or two of value on the Eagles due to what has taken place thus far.  I still believe the Eagles are one of the best teams in the NFL.  Their two losses came by 4 and 3 points, and if they do lose this game, I expect it to be by 4 or less again as well.  They had seven drops and two fumbles against the Lions last week, while the Lions had a kickoff return TD.  They outgained the Lions by 86 yards and arguably should have won. 

The Eagles will get some players back from injury this week that they didn’t have Sunday against the Lions.  And those injuries are a big reason they were upset by the Lions.  The Eagles will get back their best receiver in Alshon Jeffery, and they’ll also have WR J.J. Arcega-Whiteside in this one.  TE Dallas Goedert is back this week as well.  Receiver injuries were the biggest problem for the Eagles last week, but that won’t be an issue this week even though DeSean Jackson is still out. 

The Packers have plenty of injury problems of their own.  They have five key players listed as questionable in this one in LB Zadarius Smith, TE Jimmy Graham, T Bryan Bulaga, DT Kenny Clark and LB Blake Martinez.  I would argue their injury concerns are even greater than that of the Eagles. 

The Packers have an improved defense, but they have played three bad offenses in the Bears, Broncos and Vikings.  The Packers are fortunate to be 3-0 when you consider how poorly their offense has played.  They are scoring just 19.3 points per game and averaging just 287 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play.  They rank 28th in total offense, 28th in yards per play and 23rd in scoring offense. 

The Eagles are still 9th in total offense despite the injuries to their receivers.  They still have one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, and their defense is among the best despite a slow start to the season.  They have a tremendous front seven, which helps make up for their weakness, which is in their secondary.  It’s only a matter of time before their defense starts playing like it has over the last couple years. 

The Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning record.  Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games.  Bet the Eagles Thursday. 

20* Bears/Redskins ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Chicago -3.5 

Everyone in the media is dogging on Mitchell Trubisky and this Chicago offense.  But keep in mind the Bears have played two of the best defenses in the NFL in the Packers and Broncos.  I think this is Trubisky’s coming out party on Monday Night Football against what has been one of the worst defenses in the NFL in the Washington Redskins. 

The Redskins are allowing a whopping 31.5 points per game, 455.0 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play through their first two games against the Eagles and Cowboys.  And their offense has struggled with 326.5 yards per game, so they are getting outgained by roughly 129 yards per game on the season. 

The Bears had the best defense in the NFL last season and they have picked up right where they left off.  They are giving up just 12.0 points per game, 292.5 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play through two games.  With a defense this good, the Bears are going to be in almost every game they play.  The offense just has to be average or better for this team to be elite. 

I think there’s some line value here based off last week’s line against the Cowboys.  The Redskins were 6.5-point home dogs to the Cowboys, but they are only 3.5-point home dogs to the Bears this week.  I have the Cowboys and Bears power rated similarly, so we are basically getting 3 points of value bases off that fact alone. 

The Bears have some momentum coming into this game as well.  They were starting an 0-2 start straight in the face last week.  They led 13-6 but gave up a TD and a 2-point conversion to the Broncos with only 30 seconds remaining to trail.  Trubisky managed to drive the field in 30 seconds and set up the game-winning 53-yard field goal from Eddy Pineiro as time expired.  Kicking has been a huge problem for the Bears, and now they have confidence that they’ve found their man.  That drive also gives Trubisky some confidence coming into this week as well. 

Jay Gruden is 1-8 ATS on Monday Night Football as the coach of the Redskins.  They are losing by 11.2 points per game in this spot.  The Bears are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs. a team with a losing record.  Washington is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 MNF games.  The Redskins are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  The road team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Bet the Bears Monday. 

15* Rams/Browns NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Cleveland +3.5 

The Los Angeles Rams are getting too much respect from oddsmakers now after their 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS start this season.  They barely covered in their 30-27 road win over the Panthers as 1.5-point favorites.  And they got a huge break last week when Drew Brees went out early with a thumb injury in their 27-9 home win over the Saints.  We’ll ’sell high’ on the Rams this week. 

The Cleveland Browns certainly believed the hype in the offseason and were humbled in their 13-43 home loss to the Titans in Week 1.  They came back with a chip on their shoulder last week and made easy work of the Jets in a 23-3 road win.  And now this place will be rocking in Cleveland Sunday night with the defending NFC champions coming to town, and you can bet the Browns will be giving their best effort here. 

This Cleveland offense has so many playmakers that they are going to be tough to tame this season.  They were great with Baker Mayfield last season, and now they added Odell Beckham Jr. in the offseason.  He has already made his mark with this team with 13 receptions for 232 yards and a touchdown this week.  He is only going to continue to open things up for other players with the attention he is going to draw moving forward. 

The Browns are only giving up 300.5 yards per game through two games as their defense certainly looks improved.  The Rams lost two starting offensive linemen in the offseason. The strength of the Browns is their front seven, and Myles Garrett and company will make life tough on Jared Goff.  Garrett had three sacks last week and is an absolute terror. 

Plays against favorites (LA Rams) - off a home win, in the first month of the season are 78-37 (67.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Plays on underdogs or PK (Cleveland) - a bad defense from last season that allowed 385 or more yards per game are 31-11 (73.8%) ATS over the last 10 years.  Roll with the Browns Sunday. 

15* Steelers/49ers Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh +7 

This is the classic ‘buy low, sell high’ game.  We’ll buy low on the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are off to an 0-2 start and have their backs against the wall in basically a must-win game here.  And we’ll sell high on the 49ers, who are 2-0 and coming off back-to-back road wins over the Bucs and Bengals. 

The Steelers have played the much tougher schedule thus far with a road loss to the Patriots and a home loss to the Seahawks.  And they lost Big Ben to a season-ending injury in the first half of that loss to Seattle.  Backup Mason Rudolph is ready for the spotlight and played well against the Seahawks in keeping them in that game.   

Rudolph went 12-of-19 passing for 112 yards with two touchdowns and one interception after taking Big Ben’s place last week.  I expect Rudolph to be even better with a full week to prepare to be the starter.  He did not expect to get in that game last week, and now he can change his mentality and lead a Steelers team that will be playing with a chip on their shoulder after everyone is counting them out now. 

The 49ers are feeling fat and happy after their 2-0 start, and now expectations are sky high for this team.  They are now 7-point home favorites over the Steelers, which is simply too much.  And the 49ers just lost their best offensive linemen in LT Joe Staley to a broken fibula, so Jimmy G will be concerned about the backup protecting his blind side, especially with his injury history. 

The Steelers showed that they aren’t giving in this season by trading for Minkah Fitzpatrick of the Dolphins.  Their secondary has been their weakness thus far, and he is an instant upgrade.  I have no doubt their defense is better than they’ve shown thus far as they were one of the top units in the league last year.  Adding Fitzpatrick will only make them better.  Plus they’ve played a much tougher schedule than the 49ers have thus far. 

The Steelers are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  The 49ers are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 home games.  Mike Tomlin is 27-16 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite as the coach of Pittsburgh.  Tomlin is 13-5 ATS in road games after two or more consecutive ATS losses as the coach of the Steelers. 

Plays against home favorites (San Francisco) - a poor scoring defense from last season that allowed 24 or more points per game, after scoring 30 points or more last game are 23-2 (92%) ATS since 1983.  Take the Steelers Sunday. 

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Chargers -3 

The Chargers should be 2-0 after blowing the game in Detroit last week.  They outgained the Lions by 85 yards and fumbled at the 1-yard line going in for a score.  They also had two touchdowns called back by penalties and missed two field goals, yet only lost by 3. I think the fact that they lost that game has them undervalued this week.  Now we are getting the Chargers as only 3-point home favorites over the Houston Texans. 

The Chargers are hitting on all cylinders offensively in the early going.  They are averaging 430 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play on offense.  They should have their way with a Houston defense that is allowing 396 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play. 

The Texans are only averaging 339 yards per game & 6.0 yards per play on offense.  So the Chargers are outgaining opponents by 1.3 yards per play, which ranks 5th in the NFL, while the Texans are getting outgained by 0.7 yards per play.  Yards per play is one of the most important stats in the NFL.  The Top 5 teams in YPP differential are 9-1 thus far in 2019. 

The Texans have great skill position players, but that’s about it.  They have a bad defense and a bad offensive line.  Deshaun Watson has already been sacked 10 times this season in two games after taking the most sacks in the NFL last year.  The Chargers have one of the best pass-rushing duos in the NFL in Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. 

The Chargers own the AFC South Division, going 30-5 ATS in their last 35 games against them.  They are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Texans.  The Chargers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after failing to cover the spread in their previous game.  Bet the Chargers Sunday. 

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Giants +7 

Finally, the New York Giants have decided to bench Eli Manning and go with first-round pick Daniel Jones.  I think this upgrade at quarterback will give the Giants a big boost in Jones’ first start and inject some new life into this team.  They knew they weren’t going anywhere with Eli, but now there is hope with Jones.  I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the Giants win this game outright Sunday against the Bucs. 

I also like backing 0-2 teams in Week 3 because their backs are against the wall and their season is essentially on the line.  You know you’re going to get their best effort, and that will especially be the case with the Giants this week with Jones starting.  Plus, the betting public wants nothing to do with the 0-2 teams because they have looked bad, and thus there is value in backing them. 

Jones was dynamite in the preseason.  He completed 29-of-34 passes (85.3%) for 416 yards with two touchdowns and zero interceptions with a 137.3 QBR.  He is the real deal, and he is playing with a chip on his shoulder after everyone thought it was a terrible pick by the Giants drafting him that early.  He’s ready to prove his doubters wrong. 

A big reason the Giants are 0-2 is because they have played a brutal schedule.  They lost to the Cowboys in Week 1 and the Bills in Week 2, a pair of teams that are 2-0 with two of the best defenses in the NFL.  I like the move to start Jones this week against a Tampa Bay defense that has been one of the worst stop units in the NFL for years.  And those games against the Cowboys and Bills were closer than the final scores.  They were only outgained by 24 yards by the Cowboys and 18 yards by the Bills, but they lost the turnover battle 4-0, which was the difference. 

In what world should the Bucs be favored by a touchdown over anyone other than maybe the Dolphins?  They've only been favored by 6 or more points one other time in the last seven years.  It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the Bucs after their upset road win over the Carolina Panthers last week as 6.5-point dogs.  This Tampa Bay offense has been atrocious in averaging 18.5 points, 292.0 yards per game and only 4.9 yards per play thus far.  Jameis Winston just can’t be trusted as chances are he’ll make plenty of mistakes to keep the Giants in this game.  He threw 3 interceptions against the 49ers in the opener. 

The Giants are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing 17 points or more in the first half of two straight games.  New York is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after scoring less than 15 points in its previous game.  The Giants are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games.  The Giants are 6-1-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  New York is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six meetings in Tampa Bay.  Bet the Giants Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Denver Broncos +8 

This is the classic ‘buy low, sell high’ game.  We’ll buy low on the Denver Broncos, who are off to an 0-2 start this season and have their backs against the wall as they will clearly be giving their best effort to avoid an 0-3 start.  And we’ll sell high on the Packers, who are 2-0 and one of the favorite teams of the betting public. 

This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Packers.  They are coming off two huge division wins over the Bears and Vikings, who are their two biggest threats to win the NFC North.  Now they step out of conference here against the Broncos and won’t be nearly as motivated for this game as they were for those two huge division games to open the season.  That will make it tough for them to cover this inflated 8-point spread. 

Denver has played better than its 0-2 record would show.  The Broncos actually outgained the Raiders in their 16-24 Week 1 loss on the road.  And they outgained the Bears by 99 yards in their 14-16 home loss in Week 2.  They still have one of the best defenses in the NFL, giving up just 20.0 points per game and 315 yards per game.  And their offense hasn’t been as bad as the media perceives, averaging 358 yards per game. 

Conversely, the Packers aren’t as good as their 2-0 record.  They were outgained by 41 yards by the Bears in their 10-3 road win in Week 1.  And last week they were outgained by 86 yards by the Vikings in their 21-16 win.  While the Packers have an improved defense, Aaron Rodgers and the offense have struggled mightily with just 274.0 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play through two games.  Things won’t get easier for Rodgers and company against this nasty, hungry Denver defense this week. 

Plays against favorites (Green Bay) - off a home win, in the first month of the season are 78-37 (67.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Packers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS win.  Take the Broncos Sunday. 

15* Titans/Jaguars AFC South ANNIHILATOR on Jacksonville +2 

The Jacksonville Jaguars are looking at this game as a must-win Thursday.  They have started 0-2 against a brutal schedule with a home game loss to the Chiefs and a road loss at the Texans.  And now they have two road games on deck at Denver and Carolina.  So they really need to get this win at home Thursday, and I expect them to be ‘all in’ to do so. 

Gardner Minshew has more than held his own in place of Nick Foles this season.  Minshew has completed 45-of-58 passes (77.6%) and is averaging 8.4 yards per attempt this season.  He kept them in the game against the Jaguars in their 12-13 loss and brought them back against the Chiefs in Week 1.  He is primed for a big game against this Tennessee defense at home Thursday night. 

The Titans have opened 1-1 with a road win at Cleveland and a home loss to Indianapolis, so their schedule has been much easier.  And they’ve actually been outgained by 26.5 yards per game through two weeks.  Their offense is once again struggling with just 290.5 yards per game after being one of the worst offenses in the NFL last year. 

Adding to the Jaguars’ motivation is the fact that they will be playing with quadruple revenge after losing all four meetings with the Titans over the last two seasons.  The AFC South is wide open now with the Andrew Luck retirement as the other three teams are all 1-1.  The Jaguars know they still have a chance to win it, and it starts with winning this game at home Thursday night.  Plus, I always like backing home teams on Thursday nights because it’s a huge advantage for the home team and has proven a profitable bet through the years. 

The Titans are 16-34-3 ATS in their last 53 vs. a team with a losing record.  Tennessee is 4-12-1 ATS in its last 17 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The home team is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Doug Marrone is a perfect 6-0 ATS off a loss by 3 points or less as the coach of the Jaguars.  They are coming back to win by 13.3 points per game in this spot.  Wrong team favored here.  Take the Jaguars Thursday. 

20* Browns/Jets ESPN Monday No-Brainer on New York +7 

Oddsmakers have adjusted too much for Sam Darnold being out with Mono.  This line was around Browns -2.5 early in the week before the news that Darnold would be out.  Now it’s all the way up to Browns -7, a 4.5-point adjustment.  Darnold isn’t worth 4.5 points over new starter Trevor Siemian. 

Siemian held his own as a starter for the Denver Broncos in both 2016 and 2017.  He has a 13-11 record as a starter and a 30-to-24 TD/INT ratio with a 59.3% completion percentage.  He is certainly one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league and will be ready for the moment, especially with a whole week to prepare to with the first-team offense. 

The Jets were up 16-0 on the Bills last week and let them come back and win 17-16 with three straight scores to close the game.  They’ll come back motivated off that loss.  The Bills are a very good team as they went on to beat the Giants 28-14 on the road in Week 2. 

The Browns are simply overvalued to start the season.  There was so much hype on them coming into the year and it has gone to their heads, plus made them a team you simply cannot bet early in the year.  They lost 13-43 as 5.5-point home favorites over the Titans in Week 1.  And now they are 7-point road favorites over the Jets, which is saying that this would be a 10-point spread on a neutral field.  They aren’t 10 points better than the Jets even with Siemian. 

This has been a closely-contested series in recent years as the Browns and Jets have met each of the last three seasons.  All three games were decided by 4 points or less with the Jets winning two of them.  All three were played in Cleveland.  The Jets have won by 21 and 11 in their last two home meetings with the Browns.  Cleveland hasn’t beaten New York by more than 7 points in any of the last 10 meetings, making for a 10-0 system backing the Jets. 

New York is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 home games off a home loss.  Plays against favorites (Cleveland) - after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse are 46-19 (70.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Look for New York to be playing with a chip on its shoulder at home Monday night now that everyone is counting them out with Darnold being out.  Bet the Jets Monday. 

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Jacksonville Jaguars +9.5 

Let’s start by talking about the lookahead line for this game.  Coming into Week 1, the lookahead line was Houston -3.  Now it is Houston -9.5, a 6.5-point difference.  I think this is an overreaction from what happened last week, and the injury to Nick Foles as the Jaguars’ quarterback. 

Gardner Minshew took over for Foles and was great, completing 22-of-25 passes for 275 yards with two touchdowns and one interception.  He easily could have been 25-of-25 without a few drops.  It was a very impressive effort as he tried to bring the Jaguars back from a big deficit.  They eventually lost 26-40 to the Chiefs. 

Minshew should have more success this week against a soft Houston defense that allowed the Saints to come back and beat them on Monday Night Football.  The Texans lost a lot of key players on defense in the offseason, and they ran out of gas in the second half and blew a 14-3 lead.  They gave up 30 points, 510 total yards and 8.0 yards per play against the Saints last week. 

The way the the Texans lost will be tough to come back from as they scored a TD with only 37 seconds left to take a 28-27 lead.  But Drew Brees did what he does and guided the Saints down the field to set up a 58-yard field goal as time expired, giving the Saints a 30-28 win. 

Now the Texans are on a short week.  Another concern for the Texans is their offensive line, which gave up the most sacks in the league last year.  It doesn’t appear improved at all this season after Week 1 watching Deshaun Watson scrambling for his life.  Watson was sacked 6 times and hit 11 times in the loss. 

The Jaguars have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  I still believe that despite giving up 40 points to Kansas City last week.  The Chiefs are going to make a lot of good defenses look bad this year.  Jacksonville has the personnel to get after Watson and lock down Houston’s receivers.  The Jaguars have held the Texans to 20, 20, 7 and 7 points in their last four meetings, respectively.  They have Bill O’Brien’s offense figures out. 

Plays against home favorites (Houston) - a good offensive from last season that averaged 5.4 or more yards per play, after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game are 33-11 (75%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The road team is 11-4-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  Bet the Jaguars Sunday.

15* Vikings/Packers NFC North ANNIHILATOR on Green Bay -2.5 

The Green Bay Packers have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL.  Lambeau Field is worth upwards of 4 points.  So getting the Packers as less than field goal favorites at home in a matchup of two teams that are very close in the power rankings is a gift in my eyes.  Plus the Packers have extra rest and prep time after playing last Thursday against the Bears. 

I was impressed more with the Packers’ defense than any other defense in the NFL in Week 1.  They simply shut down the Bears, holding them to 3 points and 254 total yards.  The Packers finally spent some money in the offseason on defense and brought in pass rushers Preston Smith and Za’Darius Smith, and also former Bear Adrian Amos at safety.   

All three played huge roles as both Smith’s were in the backfield all game, and Amos had the key interception that saved the game.  I was also impressed with rookie safety Darnell Savage, and last year’s top two picks in corners Jaire Alexander and Josh Jackson played well.  This is now a lock down secondary with a plethora of pass rushers and it could prove to be one of the best defenses in the league.  It’s been a long time coming in Green Bay. 

Of course, Aaron Rodgers and the offense didn’t do much.  I think they were rusty because Rodgers didn’t play in the preseason and is working in a new system under first-year head coach Matt LeFleur.  But some of the credit has to go to Chicago’s defense, which was the best unit in the NFL last year and brought back almost all their key players from that unit.  With extra time to get ready for this game after playing last Thursday, Rodgers and company should be much more productive in Week 2. 

The Vikings are getting too much credit here for hitter 28-12 home win over the Falcons last week.  The Falcons basically gave them that game by committing three turnovers.  The Vikings were actually outgained by 76 total yards.  Their offense, which was a problem last year, was held to just 269 total yards.  I know they just ran the ball basically the whole game and only had 10 pass attempts, but I think their offense is going to be an issue this season again. 

The Vikings are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.  The Packers are 35-17-2 ATS in their last 54 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Look for the Packers to shut down Kirk Cousins and company, and for Rodgers to have his coming out party this week at home.  Take the Packers Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Cincinnati Bengals -1 

The Cincinnati Bengals seem to be the forgotten team of the NFL.  Nobody is even talking about them.  They opened 4-1 last season before getting decimated by injuries.  They went 1-7 over their final eight games.  As a result, I thought the Bengals would be a good ‘buy low’ team coming into the season. 

I was on them last week as 10-point road underdogs to the Seahawks.  They should have won the game, but lost by a single point 21-20.  They outgained the Seahawks by nearly 200 total yards.  Their offense really didn’t miss A.J. Green because there’s enough other weapons for Andy Dalton.  They had 429 total yards against the Seahawks. 

Their defense, which I believe is underrated, held the Seahawks to just 233 total yards.  The Bengals have one of the best defensive lines in the NFL led by pro bowlers Carlos Dunlap and Geno Atkins.  The secondary is also loaded with Dre Kirkpatrick, William Jackson & Shawn Williams leading the way. 

The 49ers had a misleading 31-17 win over the Bucs last week.  They got two defensive touchdowns and forced four turnovers.  Their three interceptions were more than they had all of last season.  Jameis Winston essentially just gave that game away to the 49ers. 

This San Francisco offense and Jimmy G are still a work in progress.  They only managed 256 total yards against a bad Tampa Bay defense.  Garoppolo only threw for 166 yards on 27 attempts.  He looked rusty in the preseason, and he certainly looked rusty in the opener.  Not helping matters are injuries at running back and receiver right now, plus the fact that the 49ers do not have a very good offensive line. 

The Bengals should be able to hold Jimmy G in check as well with their defensive line dominating the 49ers’ offensive line being the key to the game.  I think the Bengals look rejuvenated under new head coach Zac Taylor, a Sean McVay disciple.  His offense moved the ball at will against the Seahawks in a tough environment.  And now playing at home Andy Dalton and company should have much more success than Jameis Winston did last week. 

It’s worth noting that the 49ers will be playing their 2nd straight road game to open the season.  Teams in Week 2 playing back-to-back road games to open the season are 2-13 SU & 1-14 ATS since 2015.  The Bengals are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They make it six straight covers in this one.  Roll with the Bengals Sunday. 

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 

This is a great opportunity to ‘buy low’ on the Pittsburgh Steelers after they were embarrassed 33-3 at New England in the opener.  The Steelers will be coming back with a chip on their shoulder in their home opener at Heinz Field against the Seattle Seahawks Sunday afternoon.  New England is going to make a lot of teams look bad this season. 

The Steelers moved the ball against the Patriots, accounting for 308 total yards, but they just couldn’t get anything out of it.  They were stopped on 3rd-and-1 and 4th-and-1 repeatedly.  It just wasn’t their night, and a lot of receivers dropped good balls from Ben Roethlisberger.  I trust them to iron out the kinks.  Roethlisberger is a perfect 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in his last eight tries off an ATS loss by 18 points or more. 

Seattle was fortunate to beat Cincinnati 21-20 as 9-point home favorites last week.  The Bengals outgained the Seahawks by 196 total yards with 429 yards of offense and limiting the Seahawks to 233 total yards.  This is a Seahawks team that lost almost all their star players from their Super Bowl runs except Russell Wilson and Bobby Wagner.  They just aren’t that good. 

This is a tough spot for the Seahawks as it will be an early start time at 1:00 EST for a West Coast team, which will make it a 10:00 AM body clock.  And the Seahawks have been dreadful on the highway early in the season.  Indeed, Seattle is 1-14 SU & 1-13-1 ATS in Weeks 1 & 2 on the road since 2007.  Pete Carroll is 3-14 ATS in road games in the first month of the season as the coach of Seattle as well.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Steelers Sunday. 

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cardinals/Ravens OVER 45.5 

Baltimore offensive coordinator Greg Roman is definitely the dual-threat QB whisperer.  Before he arrived in Baltimore he turned Colin Kaepernick into a star in San Francisco, and more impressively yet helped Tyrod Taylor guide the Buffalo Bills to the playoffs a few years back.  Now he’s working his magic on Lamar Jackson. 

The Ravens were vanilla on offense in the preseason and saving their real offense for the regular season.  Well, that ‘real’ offense exploded for 59 points last week against the Dolphins.  The Ravens racked up 643 total yards.  Jackson had the best game of his career, completing 17-of-20 passes for 324 yards and 5 touchdowns.  The scary part is he only ran the ball three times.  This Ravens’ offense is the real deal, and they are playing at a faster tempo this year, which will certainly be beneficial to ‘OVER’ bettors. 

Speaking of fast tempos, the Arizona Cardinals average a play nearly every 20 seconds, which was the fastest pace any NFL team played at last week.  Trailing 24-6, they sped up the pace even more and actually came back to tie the game and force overtime behind some brilliant play from Kyler Murray.  They had 387 total yards against the Lions and most of those game in the 2nd half.  Look for head coach Kliff Kingsbury to realize that the faster pace worked, and to try and utilize it against the Ravens. 

The Ravens should be able to score at will on this soft Arizona defense.  The Lions had 477 total yards against the Cardinals last week, and that’s a below average Detroit offense.  The Cardinals simply lack talent on this side of the ball, and they are without Patrick Peterson and Robert Alford, two very good cornerbacks they were expected to rely on coming into the season.  This Arizona defense is also probably gassed after playing an overtime game. 

Baltimore lost so many key players on defense in the offseason.  They lost arguably their four best players in LB C.J. Mosley, LB Za’Darius Smith, LB Terrell Suggs and FS Eric Weddle.  And now they are down two cornerbacks in Jimmy Smith and Tavon Young due to injury.  Arizona likes to go 4 wide, so the one position you don’t want to be short on is cornerback.  Arizona should have plenty of success offensively against this short-handed secondary as well. 

Get ready for plenty of offensive fireworks in this battle between two of the most exciting new offenses in the league today.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday. 

15* Bucs/Panthers NFC South Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 49.5 

I expect a low scoring game in this division rivalry between the Panthers and Bucs tonight.  Both teams are coming off losses that can be 100% attributed to turnovers.  Look for both teams to have conservative game plans and to focus more on taking care of the football than anything, which will help lead to the UNDER. 

The Bucs were dreadful offensively against the 49ers last week.  They managed just 17 points and 295 total yards while committing four turnovers.  Jameis Winston threw three interceptions, two of which were returned for touchdowns.  Their defense actually played well in giving up just 256 total yards to the 49ers in the loss. 

The Panthers had 343 total yards against a mediocre Rams defense.  And they were very pass-happy as they were trying to come from behind the entire game.  That led to three turnovers, which also set up some easy scores for the Rams.  Their defense was actually decent in holding a high-powered Rams offense to just 349 total yards. 

With a total of 49.5 here, the Panthers and Bucs have gone UNDER that number in six of their their last seven meetings, and they are 12-2 to the UNDER 49.5 in their last 14 meetings.  They have combined for 48 or fewer points in 12 of those 14 games.  I think there’s some serious value on the UNDER tonight. 

The UNDER is 6-1 in Bucs last seven games overall.  The UNDER is 12-4 in Bucs last 16 games off a double-digit home loss.  The UNDER is 19-9 in Panthers last 28 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 13-6 in the last 19 meetings in Carolina.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday. 

20* Texans/Saints ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Houston +7 

The Houston Texans went 11-5 last season and won the AFC South.  It’s worth noting that all five of their losses came by 7 points or less.  So they went the entire 16-game schedule without losing a game by more than a touchdown.  Now they are catching 7 points in their opener against the New Orleans Saints.  I think there’s value with the road underdog here to say the least. 

The Texans didn’t even live up to their potential offensive last year due to injuries at receiver to two of their three biggest weapons in Will Fuller and Keke Coutee.  Both are healthy and ready to start the 2019 season, giving Deshaun Watson easily one of the best trio of weapons to work with.  And they traded for Duke Johnson, giving him yet another outlet coming out of the backfield. 

The Texans certainly leaned on their defense last season that gave up 19.8 points per game.  I know they lost Jadeveon Clowney, Tyrann Mathieu and two cornerbacks.  But the Texans still have several defensive stalwarts that remain in J.J. Watt, Whitney Mercilus, Zach Cunningham and Jonathan Joseph.  This will still be an above average defensive unit. 

I question the state of mind of the Saints after the way they exited the playoffs the last two years.  They were victims of the Minneapolis Miracle two years ago.  Last year the refs missed a pass interference call in the NFC Championship that prevented them from going to the Super Bowl.  Time is now running out on the aging Drew Brees and company.  Brees looked a little broken down the stretch last year and is clearly losing velocity on his throws. 

Last year, the Saints started very slow after that Minneapolis Miracle the previous season.  They lost their opener as double-digit home favorites to the Bucs 40-48.  Then in Week 2 they were very fortunate to escape with a 21-18 home victory over the Browns as nearly double-digit favorites.  The Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last five Week 1 games, so Sean Payton has been a notorious slow starter.  Bet the Texans Monday. 

20* Steelers/Patriots NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 49 

These are two teams that rely on their defenses more now that their quarterbacks are aging.  The Patriots were dominant in the playoffs last year defensively and gave up just 20.4 points per game, including 17.9 points per game at home.  They return almost everyone on defense and upgraded on that side of the ball through the draft as well. 

The Steelers were among the league leaders in defense last year giving up 22.5 points and 327.4 yards per game.  They have studs at all three levels of their defense in Cameron Hayward, T.J. Watt, Bud Dupree, Devin Bush and Joe Haden.  It’s a very young defense that is only getting better. 

The Patriots lose both Rob Gronkowski and Chris Hogan.  It’s well documented that Tom Brady puts up much better numbers with Gronk than without him.  So there will be a transition period here, especially with his replacement in Ben Watson suspended for the start of the season.  And Roethlisberger loses both Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell.  Losing Brown really hurts as despite being a distraction, he’s still arguably the best receiver in the league. 

The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in this series.  Last year, the Steelers beat the Patriots 17-10 at home for 27 combined points.  And we are getting a total here of 49, which is 22 points more than they combined for last year.  I think there’s value in the UNDER as both offenses will be rusty to start, which will be the case across the league just as it was with the Packers and Bears Monday night. 

The UNDER is 6-1 in Steelers last seven vs. AFC opponents.  The UNDER is 36-16 in Steelers last 52 road games.  The UNDER is 9-3 in Patriots last 12 games overall, including 4-1 in their last five home games.  Pittsburgh is 10-1 UNDER in road games against AFC teams over the last three seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday. 

15* Giants/Cowboys NFC East ANNIHILATOR on New York +7.5 

The Dallas Cowboys have a lot of distractions due to contract situations.  Zeke just signed this week and returned to practice, but I can’t see him getting his normal workload considering he hasn’t been in camp yet until this week.  There’s no way he is in game shape.  Amari Cooper just returned to practice this week after missing basically all of camp with injury.  Both Cooper and Dak Prescott are disgruntled right now because they don’t have their contracts, while almost everyone else around them does. 

While the Cowboys are distracted, the Giants are determined to right this ship after a 5-11 season last year.  They showed up in the preseason especially offensively as they led all teams with 9 TD passes, points (119) average passing yards (305.5) and total offense (393).  It’s a good sign that everyone has a grasp of Pat Shurmur’s offense in his second year as head coach. 

Eli Manning is out to prove that he can still play.  Fortunately for him, the Giants now have a ground game to rely on as Saquon Barkley had over 2,000 yards from scrimmage and 15 touchdowns.  He is a big play waiting to happen.  Manning threw for 4,299 yards with a 21-to-11 TD/INT ratio last year.  He was still serviceable, and he has some nice weapons outside in Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram. 

The Giants will be improved defensively this season.  They got Jabril Peppers in the Beckham Jr. trade and added Antone Bethea in free agency.  Janoris Jenkins remains one of the best corners in the NFL.  The Giants used five of their top six picks on defense, including 342-pound rookie DT Dexter Lawrence and CB DeAndre Baker in the first round.  Both should start right away.  WLB Lorenzo Carter is ready for a starting role after being a situational pass rusher as a rookie. 

No question the Cowboys have a young, emerging defense.  But they had some injuries in training camp that could have them starting slow on that side of the ball out of the gate.  Four starters barely practiced in the preseason.  DeMarcus Lawrence is coming back from shoulder surgery, both DE Tyrone Crawford and CB Byron Jones have dealt with hip issues, and LB Sean Lee injured his knee early in camp.  All four are expected to play, but may be limited in some capacity. 

The Giants looked awful in the opener against the Cowboys last year, yet still only lost 13-20.  That score will get it done for us here Sunday as we have a lot of room to spare on the Giants +7.5.  Jason Garrett is just 17-33 ATS as a home favorite as the coach of Dallas.  The Giants are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games.  Divisional underdogs are 17-4-1 ATS in their last 22 Week 1 games.  Roll with the Giants Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Cincinnati Bengals +10 

The Cincinnati Bengals got off to a 4-1 start last year before getting decimated by injuries.  They finished 1-7 in their final eight games overall.  Now the betting public wants nothing to do with them heading into 2019.  This is the perfect time to ‘buy low’ on the Bengals catching double-digits in Week 1. 

Andy Dalton is back healthy.  I know A.J. Green is out to start the season, but the Bengals have plenty of other weapons at Dalton’s disposal.  I like RB Joe Mixon, WR’s Tyler Boyd and John Ross III, and TE’s C.J. Uzomah and Tyler Eifert.  This offense is better than it’s getting credit for.  Look for the 36-year-old Zac Taylor to inject new life into this offense and this team.  Taylor learned under Sean McVay with the Rams. 

Cincinnati has one of the best defensive lines in the NFL led by Pro Bowlers Carlos Dunlap and Geno Atkins.  DE Sam Hubbard had an impressive rookie campaign with six sacks.  Carl Lawson had a great rookie season in 2017 before suffering an injury in 2018, and having him back will add some much needed depth.  The defense also gets back MLB Preston Brown from injury, their leader in the middle.  And they spent a third-round pick on NC State LB Germaine Pratt who should get significant snaps right away. 

With a strong defensive line and secondary, this defense is underrated.  The Bengals featured Dre Kirkpatrick and Williams Jackson at corner, and Shawn Williams and Jessie Bates at safety.  Kirkpatrick, Jackson and Williams have proven themselves as plus defenders, and Bates enters his second season and is ready for a bigger role. 

Seattle is getting treated like the Seattle of old here.  But the fact of the matter is the Seahawks have lost most of their key players from their Super Bowl runs aside from Russell Wilson and Bobby Wagner.  I think the trade for Jadeveon Clowney has them overhyped coming into the season.  Clowney has been an injury waiting to happen his entire career.  Yes, Seattle won 10 games last year, but they were actually outgained on the season.  They weren’t nearly as good as their record would indicate. 

Plays on underdogs or PK (Cincinnati) - a bad defensive team from last season that allowed 385 or more total yards per game are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Bengals are 20-8-2 ATS in their last 30 September games.  Cincinnati is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games.  The Seahawks are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven September games.  Take the Bengals Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Falcons/Vikings UNDER 47 

The Minnesota Vikings have had one of the best defenses in the NFL since Mike Zimmer took over.  That was the case again last season as they ranked among the league leaders in giving up 21.3 points and 309.7 yards per game, including 19.6 points and 268.2 yards per game at home. 

The Vikings didn’t get the boost from Kirk Cousins they wanted last year.  They scored just 22.5 points per game and Cousins struggled down the stretch.  A big problem was the play calling, which is why Zimmer brought in a new offensive coordinator.  He wants to run the ball more and take pressure off Cousins, which will make them more of a ball control offense that controls time of possession and shortens games.  It makes sense to use that strategy and lean on their defense, which is their strength. 

The Falcons have a good offense and a lot of weapons.  They should be pretty solid on that side of the ball again.  But they were terrible defensively last season due to all their injuries.  They get back three key starters on defense that missed at least half the season last year.  I expect the Falcons to be one of the most improved defenses in the NFL now. 

The last two meetings in this series have been defensive battles won by the Vikings.  Minnesota won 20-10 in 2015 for 30 combined points.  The Vikings also won 14-9 in 2017 for 23 combined points.  It’s clear that Zimmer has the Falcons figured out.  And I expect both offenses to be rusty in Week 1 due to a lack of playing time for their starters in the preseason. 

Minnesota is 18-6 UNDER in its last 24 home games during the first two weeks of the season.  Zimmer is 24-11 UNDER in dome games as the coach of Minnesota.  Zimmer is 40-23 UNDER against NFC opponents as the coach of the Vikings.  The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday. 

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Carolina Panthers +3 

The Panthers opened 6-2 last year before Cam Newton injured his shoulder.  They weren’t the same after that and went 1-7 down the stretch.  Now Newton’s shoulder is healthy, and he’s fully recovered from his ankle injury suffered in the preseason.  The Panthers upgraded their offensive line to help keep Newton upright. 

Christian McCaffrey is one of the best running backs in the sport after amassing nearly 2,000 yards from scrimmage last year.  DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel are ready for bigger roles in the passing game, and they added Chris Hogan. 

Defensively, the Panthers should remain one of the top units in the league.  They added some great talent to their defensive line in Gerald McCoy and Dontari Poe.  They also added DE Brian Burns in the first round of the draft and added DE Bruce Irvin.  They should have one of the top pass rushes in the NFL now.  I love the linebackers led by Luke Kuechly and Shaq Thompson.  Having a strong front seven will help make up for their biggest weakness, which is their secondary. 

The Panthers can only stay healthier as they had the 7th-most starts lost to injury last year.  They also went 2-7 in one-possession games last year.  These are all signs of positive regression coming.  And the Panthers always seem to bounce back and make the playoffs the year after missing out on the postseason under Ron Rivera. 

The Rams were fortunate to win 13 games last year.  They went 6-1 in one-score games, which is very hard to do.  They recovered 71% of their fumbles on defense, which is the highest fumble recovery rate since 1991.  The Rams paid all their star players, which means they don’t have much depth now.  They lost two starts on the offensive line in Roger Saffold and John Sullivan.  They have an aging defense, which is where the lack of depth will be felt most. 

I’m not a big fan of Jared Goff as I think he has been the beneficiary of Sean McVay’s system.  And I think the Rams are primed for the dreaded Super Bowl hangover, which seems to happen to every team that loses the Super Bowl the year before outside of the Patriots.  In fact, the previous year's Super Bowl loser is 3-16 ATS in Week 1 since 2000.

The Panthers have a great home-field advantage.  They are 39-27 ATS at home with Ron Rivera as their head coach, including 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games.  The Panthers were on a 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS run at home before Cam Newton got injured last year.  The Rams are 0-5 ATS in their last five trips to Carolina. 

This is a 10:00 AM body clock game for the Rams as its always tough for West Coast teams to travel out East for early start times.  We’ll buy low on the Panthers and sell high on the Rams here in Week 1.  Bet the Panthers Sunday. 

20* Packers/Bears 2019 NFL Season Opener on Chicago -3 

I just don’t think people are giving the Bears the respect they deserve heading into 2019.  They feel as if their 12-4 season last year was a one-hit wonder.  Well, the Bears are out to prove that it was no fluke, and I’m a believer against the Packers here in Week 1. 

For starters, the Bears are loaded defensively.  They gave up just 17.6 points per game and 299.7 yards per game last year to rank among the league leaders in both categories.  They only lost CB Bryce Callahan and S Adrian Amos from that team.  Khalil Mack single-handedly wrecks opposing offenses and their trade for him could go down as one of the best trades in NFL history. 

Offensively, the Bears improved in Year 2 under Mitchell Trubisky.  They put up 25.6 points and 344.4 yards per game.  And the scary part is, that was the first year in Matt Nagy’s system for the Bears.  They should only be better with Trubisky now likely to come into his own, and with his plethora of weapons around him.  Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel and Anthony Miller are the receiving options, and Trey Burton is a very good tight end.  They also used their third-round pick on RB David Montgomery after trading away Jordan Howard, and he’s a better fit for Nagy’s system and is drawing rave reviews. 

The Packers gave up 25.0 points per game last year and have failed to upgrade their defense for years.  They finally spent some money in free agency to try and upgrade their pass rush by bringing in Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith.  But they lost some key players as well along the front seven in DT Mike Daniels, DE Muhammad Wilkerson, DE/OLB Nick Perry, DE/OLB Clay Matthews and ILB Jake Ryan.  They also lost CB Baushaud Breeland and S Kentrell Brice in the secondary.  This defense is mostly filled with no-name guys that the Packers hope will stick. 

Green Bay needs more production from its offense because it will likely be in a lot of shootouts this season.  Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy had a falling out.  They brought in Matt LaFleur to try and turn things around.  He was the offensive coordinator for the Rams in 2017 and held the same position with the Titans last year.  He and Rodgers are getting along well so far according to reports.  However, I think the Packers could be rusty in Week 1 because Rodgers didn’t play a single snap in the preseason. 

Last year, the Bears only lost 23-24 at Green Bay as 6.5-point dogs in their opener.  They blew a double-digit lead.  They would come back to get revenge 24-17 against Rodgers and the Packers as 5.5-point home favorites in December.  So from a line value perspective alone, I think we are getting good value with the Bears only being 3-point favorites at home in the opener compared to 5.5-point favorites against the Packers at home last year. 

The Bears are 7-0 ATS in their last seven vs. NFC North opponents.  Chicago is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games overall.  The Bears are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 home games.  The Packers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Green Bay is 0-4 ATS in its last four vs. NFC North foes.  Bet the Bears Thursday. 

20* Patriots/Rams Super Bowl LIII No-Brainer on New England -2.5 

The New England Patriots have saved their best football for last.  And I just don’t see them losing to the Rams to drop their second consecutive Super Bowl.  I’ll gladly lay the short number here on the Patriots -2.5 over the Rams in Super Bowl LIII 

The Patriots have outgained seven of their last eight opponents with the only exception being the eight yards they were outgained by in their 10-17 road loss to Pittsburgh.  They have outgained six of those opponents by 100-plus yards.  And they have just been even better in the playoffs. 

Indeed, the Patriots racked up 498 total yards on offense in their 41-28 win over the Chargers.  They outgained the Chargers by 163 yards in that game and would have won by more if they didn’t let their foot off the gas after jumping out to a 35-7 lead.  And in the AFC Championship, the Patriots racked up 524 total yards and outgained them by 234 yards.  It was a much bigger blowout than the 37-31 (OT) final would indicate. 

The Rams have been much less impressive in the playoffs thus far.  They beat the Cowboys 30-22 at home and barely covered as 7.5-point favorites.  And they never should have won at New Orleans, winning 26-23 (OT) only after the refs blew a pass interference call in the final seconds that would have given the Saints the win.  I don’t think they’ll have karma on their side here since the NFL knows that the Rams don’t belong in the Super Bowl. 

The Patriots will be making their 9th Super Bowl appearance in Tom Brady’s 19 seasons.  They clearly have experience handling everything that comes with the Super Bowl, especially since they will be playing in the Super Bowl for the third consecutive season.  The 33-year-old Sean McVay is is a great head coach, but he doesn’t have Super Bowl experience, and neither do most of his players.  They will be at a big disadvantage here because of their lack of experience. 

Bill Belichick is a master at taking away the opponents’ strengths.  That’s what helped the Patriots get out to a 35-7 lead over the Chargers and a 14-0 lead over the Chiefs at halftime.  They completely shut down both offenses in the first half of both of those games, and I think they’ll do the same here against the Rams.  The Rams want to run the football, and the Patriots will take it away and make Jared Goff try and beat them.  I don’t think Goff is built to handle the pressure of the moment here knowing he’s going to have to keep up with Tom Brady. 

Brady has actually gotten better with age.  Brady averaged 267.5 passing yards per game in the postseason before turning 40.  He has thrown for 364.6 passing yards per game since turning 40, nearly 100 yards more since reaching that milestone.  He has 10 touchdowns against only two interceptions since turning 40 in his five postseason games.  He threw for a Super Bowl-record 505 yards against the Eagles last year and the Patriots never had to punt.  I can only think that the Patriots will be much better defensively this time around to help him out. 

The Patriots are 11-1 ATS vs. poor defensive teams that allow 350 or more yards per game in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  New England is 17-4 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 5.65 or more yards per play over the last three years.  The Patriots are 8-0 ATS after leading their last three games by 7-plus points at halftime over the last three seasons.  New England is 8-0 ATS in road games after scoring 35 points or more last game over the last three seasons.  Bet the Patriots Sunday.

My 10 Favorite Prop Bets for Super Bowl 53:

Edelman Under 81.5 receiving yards (+100) 

Edelman will be covered in the slot by Nickell Robey-Coleman.  Robey-Coleman is the #1 slot corner in the NFL in terms of yards per attempt allowed to slot receivers.  Edelman plays from the slot, and I expect the Rams to try and take him out of the game with Robey-Coleman matched up against him almost every snap. 

Gronkowski Over 50.5 receiving yards (-150) 

Not only are the Rams good at covering slot receivers, they’re also 3rd in the NFL in covering opposing running backs.  But they aren’t good at covering tight ends.  Gronk should be able to take advantage of his matchups against linebackers and against safety Mark Barron.  Gronk has averaged 52.5 receiving yards per game this season through the playoffs, and he’s been limited by injury.  The Patriots unleashed him last week against the Chiefs as he had 6 receptions for 79 yards.  He also had 116 receiving yards in the Super Bowl last year.  Gronk will be their best matchup to go to in the passing game. 

Sony Michel Over 17.5 rush attempts (-140) 

The Patriots have been going run-heavy in the playoffs.  They’ve made a point of getting off to fast starts, leading 35-7 over the Chargers at halftime and 14-0 over the Chiefs at halftime.  That has certainly inflated their rushing numbers, but I expect them to get off to another fast start in the Super Bowl.  In the two playoff games, Michel rushed 24 times against the Chargers and 29 times against the Chiefs.  He has had at least 17 rush attempts in 6 of his last 8 games. 

James White Over 3.5 rush attempts (-135) 

The Patriots have rushed at least 30 times in 7 of their last 8 games overall.  Not all those carries will go to Michel.  White should get his fair share here, too.  White has had at least 4 rush attempts in 14 of his 18 games this season. 

Patriots Over 128.5 Rushing Yards (+100) 

The Patriots have rushed for at least 131 yards in 4 straight games.  They have averaged 160.4 rushing yards per game in their last 8 games overall.  The Rams were 28th in rushing DVOA during the regular season.  They don’t stop the run very well.  The Patriots know they’ll have success running the football against the Rams, and they should exploit it. 

Rams Under 126.5 Rushing Yards (-125) 

The Patriots have allowed 104 or fewer rushing yards in 6 of their last 8 games overall.  They have allowed 118 or fewer rushing yards in 11 of their last 15 games.  Belichick knows that they need to try and make Jared Goff try and beat them.  They aren’t going to let CJ Anderson and Todd Gurley get off.  And since I expect the Patriots to take the early lead, I think this UNDER 126.5 prop is a good one. 

Brandin Cooks Under 75.5 Receiving Yards (-135) 

Cooks has 65 or fewer receiving yards in 6 of his last 7 games overall.  He is only averaging 58.9 receiving yards per game in those 7 games.  That’s nearly 17 yards less than this 75.5-yard total for him.  The Patriots have some shutdown corners on the outside who are going to make life difficult for Cooks.  They also have familiarity with Cooks after playing with him last season.  They know exactly what his routes look like. 

Rams Total Penalties Accepted Over 5.5 (-135) 

The Rams are a young team with almost no Super Bowl experience.  They have a young head coach in Sean McVay.  I can see the moment being too big for many of their players.  And where that shows up a lot is in false starts, offsides, and alignment penalties.  They average 6 penalties per game on the season.  I expect them to commit at least 6 penalties in this game. 

Total QB Sacks Over 3.5 (-135) 

Two immobile quarterbacks in this game.  I think it’s safe to say that both teams figure to get at least 2 sacks. Both teams like to run play-action, which will allow edge rushers to get to the quarterback if they don’t bite on fakes.  So I like the Over 3.5 quite a bit. 

Team to score last wins the Super Bowl (-190) 

Expected to be yet another close Super Bowl.  And we’ve had our share of late.  9 of the last 11 Super Bowls have been decided by one score.  And this prop has gone 12-1 in the last 13 Super Bowls.  The team that has scored last has won 12 of the last 13.  I’m willing to lay the -190 on this prop for this trend to continue. 

15* Patriots/Chiefs AFC ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City -3 

When you consider the Patriots needed a last-second field goal to beat the Chiefs at home in their first meeting this season, it’s easy to see why I like the Chiefs this week.  Now the Chiefs are at home as they earned home-field advantage with the No. 1 seed in the AFC.  That’s going to be the difference in this game Sunday. 

The Chiefs are 8-1 at home this season.  Their defense has played so much better at home than on the road.  They are giving up just 17.4 points and 344.6 yards per game at home this season.  They held the Colts to just 13 points and 263 total yards last week, which is no small feat with how well the Colts were rolling.  And now they will shut down Tom Brady and company this week. 

While the Patriots are 9-0 at home this season, they have been extremely vulnerable on the road.  Indeed, the Patriots are just 3-5 SU & 3-5 ATS on the road this season, actually getting outscored by 2.4 points per game on average.  They give up 399 yards per game on the road, and their offense is only scoring 21.6 points per game on the highway.  The Patriots have losses to the likes of Jacksonville (20-31), Detroit (10-26), Tennessee (10-34) and Miami (33-34) on the road this season.  All four of those are non-playoff teams even.  They also lost to Pittsburgh, and their three wins have come against the Jets, Bills and Bears. 

The Patriots have never gone to the Super Bowl the year after losing the Super Bowl, going 0-5 in five tries.  Tom Brady is just 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS as a road underdog in the playoffs.  And Brady lost his big play threat in Josh Gordon late in the season.  Brady averaged 7.6 yards per attempt with Gordon on the field, and only 5.6 per attempt with Gordon off the field this season.  Gronk is a shell of his former self.  He has two or fewer receptions and 25 or fewer receiving yards in four straight games right now. 

Home teams are 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS in the Championship Round over the last five years.  That’s right, no team has gone on the road in the last five years and won a game to get to the Super Bowl.  It’s worth noting that the Patriots scored 41 points on the Chargers last week.  But teams who scored 40 points or more in a playoff win the previous week are just 5-25-1 ATS the next week, including 2-11-1 ATS in the Championship Round.  Also, the Patriots have been home for three straight weeks, which has been a big advantage for them.  Teams who go on the road following three straight home games have gone 3-14 SU & 3-14 ATS in the playoffs. 

Kansas City is 9-1 ATS vs. excellent passing teams who average 260 or more passing yards per game over the last three seasons.  The Patriots are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine conference championship games.  It’s Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes’ time.  They are getting to the Super Bowl with a win and cover here against the ‘mighty’ Patriots.  Take the Chiefs Sunday.

25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Saints -3 

The Saints are the best team in the NFC.  They have been all season, and they still are.  So with that being the case, they should be more than a 3-point favorite over the Rams when you factor in home-field advantage.  The home field for the Saints is worth more than 3 points, especially in a playoff atmosphere.  And they’re the better team.  This line should be closer to -4.5 or -5 than -3. 

I think because the Saints have gone 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall, while the Rams have gone 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall gives us a ‘buy low, sell high’ opportunity here.  We’ll ‘buy low’ on the Saints and ’sell high’ on the Rams.  But the Saints were big favorites in each of their last four games, and they won three of them.  The only one they lost was a meaningless Week 17 game against Carolina in which they rested their starters. 

I think the Saints are getting discredited too much for their 20-14 win over the Eagles last week.  The way they won trailing 14-0 and overcoming adversity to score the final 20 points and shut down the Eagles after the first quarter will give them a ton of confidence heading into this game.  This team feel invincible now, especially after the defense came up with a huge INT to save the game on the final drive.  And it’s worth noting the Saints outgained the Eagles by 188 yards in that game.  The Rams lost outright to the Eagles 23-30 at home as 13.5-point favorites late in the season. 

I’m definitely backing the better quarterback here in Drew Brees, and the better defense in the Saints.  I’ll almost always back the better QB and the better defense every time in this situation.  Drew Brees is 6-0 in playoff home games under Sean Payton.  The Saints are scoring 32.6 points and averaging 402.9 yards per game at home this season. 

But it’s the defense that really gets me excited.  The Saints have allowed 17 or fewer points in seven of their last eight games in which their starters played.  They are giving up just 14.5 points per game in those eight games in which their starters played.  And I think the biggest strength, which is their run D, will be huge in this matchup. 

Jared Goff can’t be trusted in big games.  He has a 0-to-5 TD/INT ratio in his last three games against playoff teams.  It’s a big reason the Rams went run-heavy last week, rushing for 273 yards on 48 carries against the Cowboys.  But it’s worth noting they had a huge advantage because they picked up on a ’tell’ by the Cowboys that let them know which way they were stunting.  Players said it was 80% to 90% of the time right.  It explains why the Rams were able to exploit what was previously a great Cowboys run D. 

Well, the Saints rank 2nd in the NFL against the run, giving up just 80.2 rushing yards per game.  They are also 2nd in the NFL in rushing yards per attempt (3.6) allowed.  There’s no question the Saints are going to try to force Jared Goff to try and beat them, and I don’t think he can.  The Rams’ passing game just hasn’t been nearly as effective since Goff lost his favorite security blanked in Cooper Kupp to a season-ending injury. 

The Saints beat the Rams 45-35 at home in their first meeting this season.  They racked up 487 total yards and 31 first downs on this Rams’ defense, which has some star players, but as a whole is extremely vulnerable.  Clearly Brees and company found some holes in the first meeting, throwing for 346 yards and four touchdowns.  That was a 35-14 game and was a bigger blowout than the final score showed even.  And Goff had Kupp, who had 89 receiving yards and a score in that contest. 

Home teams are a perfect 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS in the Championship Games over the past five seasons.  That’s right, no road team has gone on the road to punch their ticket to the Super Bowl in the last five years.  I don’t think it will be a QB the caliber of Goff that ends this streak Sunday.  The home team has won six straight meetings in this series.  The Saints have won their last three home meetings wit the Rams by an average of 18.7 points per game.  Bet The Saints Sunday. 

15* Chargers/Patriots AFC ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles +4.5 

You’re going to hear a lot about the past history of the Patriots leading up to this game.  How they rarely lose at home in the playoffs, especially after a first-round bye.  And how Tom Brady is 7-0 against Philip Rivers in head-to-head matchups.  No question I factored in those stats as well, but I keep coming back to the fact that these aren’t the same old Patriots, and these aren’t the same old Chargers. 

The Patriots are vulnerable.  They went 11-5, but when you consider they went 5-1 against the terrible AFC East to pad their stats, well they were only 6-4 against all other teams.  They feasted on a weak schedule this season.  Their defense ranks 21st in the league, and their offense hasn’t been nearly as explosive after losing Josh Gordon, and with Rob Gronkowski clearly just a shell of his former self. 

This is easily the best team that Philip Rivers has ever had with the Chargers.  Think about this for a second.  If not for a botched loss to the Broncos with poor clock management down the stretch, the Chargers would be your No. 1 seed in the AFC.  They went 12-4, just like the Chiefs, yet the Chiefs are being treated as the superior team.  I don’t believe that to be the case.  And the Chiefs went into New England and lost on a last-second field goal earlier this season, and that was when the Chiefs were hitting on all cylinders before fading here down the stretch. 

Rivers is loaded with weapons on offense with the likes of Melvin Gordon, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.  And the defense has been one of the best in the league since getting Joey Bosa back from injury.  The Chargers give up just 20.4 points per game and 327.5 yards per game this season, ranking 9th in total defense.  They have allowed 23 or fewer points in 11 of their last 13 games overall with the only exceptions behind the 28 they gave up at Kansas City and the 30 they allowed at Pittsburgh, two games they actually won outright as underdogs.  They are allowing just 17.3 points per game in their last 11 games. 

The tougher the situation, the better the Chargers play.  That’s why I’m not concerned about all the travel talk and this being their 3rd straight road games.  They thrive on the road.  Indeed, the Chargers are 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS on the road this season.  Their only loss came at the Rams early in the season.  They have beaten the likes of Seattle, Pittsburgh, Kansas City and Baltimore on the road this year, four playoff teams.  And they certainly won’t be phased by having to go into New England this weekend. 

The Chargers are also expected to get NT Brandon Mebane and TE Hunter Henry back from injury this week, and C Mike Pouncey has been given the green light.  This just feels like a changing of the guard-type game as Rivers is on a mission to get that elusive Lombardi Trophy, and he finally has the team that can dethrone New England in the AFC. 

Philip Rivers is 21-7 ATS in his last 28 games as a road underdog of 4 points or more, including 16-3 ATS since 2012.  Bill Belichick is only 2-10 ATS in home games when playing with two or more weeks’ rest as the coach of New England.  Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS in its last six playoff road games, and 35-17-2 ATS in its last 54 road games overall.  Underdogs are 14-1 ATS since the start of last year's playoffs.  Roll with the Chargers Sunday.

20* Cowboys/Rams NFC No-Brainer on Dallas +7 

The Dallas Cowboys are getting zero respect from oddsmakers as touchdown underdogs to the Los Angeles Rams this week.  But, that has been the case for this team for weeks.  The Cowboys have gone 8-1 SU & 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Their only loss came at Indianapolis in a huge letdown spot after beating the Eagles in OT the previous week, which essentially decided the NFC East title. 

The Rams have feasted on bad competition, but they haven’t been good against the league’s best.  Six of the Rams’ last 10 wins came by 7 points or less.  The only four that came by more were against the 49ers (twice), Cardinals and Lions, three of the worst teams in the NFL.  When the Rams have stepped up in class, like they will be here, they have not fared well. 

Indeed, the Rams are 0-5-2 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a winning record this season.  They pushed in a 7-point win against the Vikings and pushed in a 3-point win against the Chiefs.  They lost outright by 9 as 3-point favorites against Chicago, lost outright by 10 as 2.5-point favorites at New Orleans, and lost outright at home as 13.5-point favorites over the Eagles.  They also only beat Seattle by 5 as 9.5-point home favorites and Seattle by 2 as 7-point road favorites.  If Seattle can hang with them twice, Dallas certainly can after dominating the Seahawks last week until a garbage TD in the final seconds that turned a 24-14 game into a 24-22 one. 

The Cowboys have taken off on offense since trading for Amari Cooper.  They have scored at least 22 points in seven of their last nine games overall.  They have a great rushing attack that has produced 94-plus yards in 13 of 17 games this season.  They average 4.5 per carry as a team, and they rushed for 164 yards on the Seahawks last week. 

That makes this a bad matchup for a Rams defense that hasn’t been nearly as good as advertised.  The Rams have allowed 27-plus points in six of their last nine games overall.  Their biggest problem is stopping the run as the Rams rank dead last in allowing 5.1 yards per carry this season.  Zeke should be able to have a big game here, which will allow the Cowboys to control time of possession and keep Jared Goff and company off the field. 

The Rams have not been nearly as effective on offense since losing Cooper Kupp to a season-ending injury.  He was Goff’s favorite target on third down.  And now Goff will be up against one of the best defenses he has faced this season.  The Cowboys rank 7th in total defense, giving up 329.2 yards per game this season.  They are 6th in scoring defense (20.2 points/game) and 8th in yards per play (5.4) allowed. 

Todd Gurley has been banged up down the stretch, and that has also hurt the Rams’ offense.  They don’t have a very good offensive line, and it has been exposed.  I expect the Cowboys to win the battle at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.  They will be able to slow down Gurley thanks to a run defense that ranks 5th in the NFL in giving up just 94.6 rushing yards per game, and 4th in yards per carry (3.8) allowed. 

Dallas is 9-1 ATS vs. poor defensive teams that allow 350 or more yards per game over the last two seasons.  The Cowboys are 7-0 ATS in road games vs. bad defensive teams that give up 24 or more points per game over the last three seasons.  Dallas is 20-7-1 ATS in its last 28 games played on a grass field.  The Rams are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Underdogs are 14-1 ATS since the start of last year's playoffs.

The Rams just don’t have much of a home-field advantage at all in Los Angeles.  They were knocked out of the playoffs last year with a home loss to the Falcons.  The Cowboys could easily have nearly 50% of the fans in attendance, making it feel like a home game for them.  Dallas will give them a run for their money here, possibly pulling off the upset.  Take the Cowboys Saturday.

25* NFL Divisional Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Indianapolis Colts +6 

We have two teams headed in opposite directions here.  The Indianapolis Colts are the hottest team in the NFL, and it’s not even close.  The Kansas City Chiefs certainly faded down the stretch from a point spread perspective and have had trouble living up to their massive expectations from oddsmakers and the betting public. 

Following a 1-5 start, the Colts have gone 10-1 SU & 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They have the best point differential in the entire NFL over these 11 games, which is the sign of an elite team.  They have outscored their last 11 opponents by a total of 131 points, or by an average of 11.9 points per game.  Another sign of an elite team is the fact that the Colts have outgained 10 of their last 11 opponents as well, so there has been nothing fluky about this run. 

Andrew Luck is playing very well, with his 32-to-1 TD/INT ratio in the red zone what stands out most.  He’s clearly back and playing better than ever.  Getting a healthy Marlon Mack back at running back has also been key to their success.  Mack has rushed for 119-plus yards in three of his last five games.  T.Y. Hilton remains explosive, and tight end Eric Ebron leads the NFL in receiving touchdowns.  Plus, the offensive line is playing well, giving up the fewest sacks of any offensive line this season. 

But the biggest reason for the turnaround by the Colts is their defense.  They have allowed just 14.0 points per game in their last eight games overall.  That makes them the best scoring defense in the NFL during this stretch.  It’s a defense that features two rookies who received All-Pro honors.  And all those draft picks the Colts have been spending on defense are really paying off now. 

No question the Chiefs have had the best offense in the NFL this season, but they also have the 31st-ranked defense in giving up 405.5 yards per game this season.  They rank 32nd in DVOA against the run.  They are also 31st in giving up 5.0 yards per carry.  Mack and the Colts are going to have their way on the ground against the Chiefs in this game, and their defense is good enough to slow down Mahomes and company. 

The Chiefs are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They have outright losses to the Rams, Chargers and Seahawks during this stretch.  Once they lost Kareem Hunt, they clearly weren’t as explosive on offense.  And they have also been playing without Sammy Watkins, who is questionable to return.  Kansas City’s defense has also allowed 30.2 points per game in its last six games overall.  That’s very concerning considering the weather has gotten colder and it has been more difficult for most offenses to put points on the board.  That hasn’t been the case against the Chiefs down the stretch, and all season really. 

Andy Reid is just 1-7 SU in its last eight playoff games as he has consistently underachieved in the postseason.  This will be the first career playoff start for Mahomes, and it did not go well for the other three first-time starters last week in Lamar Jackson, Mitch Trubisky and DeSean Watson.  In fact, the last 23 first-time starting QB’s in the playoffs have gone just 3-19-1 ATS.  Fading these first-time starters has been a huge money maker over the years. 

Kansas City is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 playoff games.  Underdogs are 14-1 ATS in the playoffs since the start of last year’s postseason, going a perfect 4-0 ATS last week.  The Colts are 7-0 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  The Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Kansas City is 0-6 ATS in its last six playoff home games.  Indianapolis is 7-1 ATS in its last eight trips to Kansas City. 

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Indianapolis) - a good passing team with a completion percentage of 60% or better, after gaining 6.75 or more yards per attempt in four straight games are 27-8 (77.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Colts Saturday. 

15* Eagles/Bears NFC ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia +6 

The Philadelphia Eagles are the Wild Card team that nobody wants to face.  They easily could have packed it in after their 4-6 start this season, but they didn’t.  They went 5-1 in their final six games, including 3-0 in their final three with Nick Foles at quarterback, beating playoff teams in the Rams and Texans along the way.  And their defense remains a juggernaut. 

Foles threw for 962 yards and six touchdowns in the final three games of the season.  This team responded well to him, and he delivered for them.  What you have to like about Foles is that he stretches the field a lot more than Wentz does, taking deep shots to Alshon Jeffery and company that result in chunk plays.  And it makes them a lot less predictable on offense.   

And if you don’t think this Eagles defense is still Super Bowl-caliber, then look no further than the shutout they posted last week against the Redskins in which they allowed just 89 total yards.  They are giving up just 21.7 points per game on the season, including 19.5 points per game during their 5-1 run over the final six weeks of the season. 

Philadelphia’s defense should be able to hold Chicago’s offense in check.  This Chicago offense is the weak link of the team as they obviously have a great defense.  The Bears are just 21st in total offense at 343.9 yards per game, and 20th averaging 5.4 yards per play.  Mitchell Trubisky will be playing in his first-ever playoff game, and he will be asked to make plays that he’s not used to in this pressure situation.  I trust Foles a lot more than Trubisky here.   

And it’s worth noting that both WR’s Anthony Miller (shoulder) and Allen Robinson (ribs) got injured against the Vikings lsat week and were forced to leave the game.  Fellow WR Taylor Gabriel (ribs) is also on the injury report, as is S Eddie Jackson (ankle).  I think the Bears made a big mistake playing their starters the entire game against the Vikings last week.  These injuries were the result, and they certainly would have rather faced Kirk Cousins and the Vikings than Foles and the Eagles.  I think Foles and the Eagles will feel extra motivated here because they feel slighted by the Bears, who clearly wanted to face them rather than Minnesota. 

The Eagles have owned the Bears in recent meetings, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS while outscoring the Bears by a whopping 28.7 points per game in the process.  And the Eagles fit into one of my favorite wild card systems.  The team that played the tougher schedule has gone 41-17-1 ATS in wild card games since 2002.  When that difference is 10 or more according to Sagarin SOS rankings, those teams cover at better than an 80% clip.  Well, the Eagles played the 15th-toughest schedule, while the Bears played the 31st-toughest.  That easy schedule is also another reason the Bears are overvalued heading into the playoffs. 

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Philadelphia) - a good passing team with a completion percentage of 60% or better, after gaining 6.75 or more passing yards per attempt in four straight games are 26-8 (76.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Philadelphia is 8-1 ATS vs. good rushing defenses that allow 90 or fewer rushing yards per game over the last three seasons.  The Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their last eight playoff road games.  Roll with the Eagles Sunday.

15* Chargers/Ravens AFC ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles +3 

The resurgence of the Ravens behind rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson has been one of the best stories in the NFL this season.  They went 6-1 down the stretch to win the AFC North by a half-game.  And their defense came up huge last week in stopping the Browns in the final seconds of a 26-24 victory a year after coming up short against the Bengals in Week 17. 

But with this strong finish comes respect from oddsmakers that I don’t think the Ravens deserve.  They are now 3-point home favorites against the Chargers this week after behind 4-point road dogs to the Chargers just two weeks ago.  And this will be the first time this season that Jackson will have to face a team for a second time.  I think the Chargers will come up with a great game plan to stop Jackson and the Ravens in this matchup now that they’ve already played them once. 

That 22-10 final against the Chargers was misleading as well.  The Chargers were down 5 and driving, only for Antonio Gates to fumble, and the Ravens returned it for a touchdown.  And Philip Rivers threw a touchdown in the end zone with one minute remaining as well.  That was certainly not a 12-point game like the final score showed.  It was also a letdown spot for the Chargers, who were coming off a huge 29-28 comeback victory at division rival Kansas City the previous week. 

I think we get the best effort of the season here from the Chargers in revenge mode.  Plus, this is the best road team in the NFL.  The Chargers are 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in road games this season, including 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in true road games as they beat the Titans in London.  Their only loss came on the road at the Rams, and they have road wins over the likes of the Seahawks, Steelers and Chiefs this season.  They are more than capable of beating the Ravens on the road here. 

I just trust Philip Rivers more than the rookie Jackson, who will be starting his first playoff game.  Rivers is having one of the best seasons of his career, and he realizes his opportunities are dwindling.  I look for him to make the most of this opportunity.  Rivers is playing at an MVP-level, completing 68.3% of his passes with a 32-to-12 TD/INT ratio.  Melvin Gordon is healthy, and he gets TE Hunter Henry back for the first time this season to add another weapon. 

Rivers is 5-1 ATS as an underdog in the playoffs.  John Harbaugh is 0-7 ATS in home games off three or more consecutive wins as the coach of Baltimore having never covered in this situation.  Baltimore is 0-6 ATS after allowing 7 points or less in the first half of two straight games over the last three seasons.  It is coming back to lose by 13.0 points per game on average in this spot.  Los Angeles is 21-8-1 ATS in its last 30 road games. Baltimore is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games.  Take the Chargers Sunday.

25* NFL Wild Card GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas Cowboys -1.5 

Since trading for Amari Cooper, the Dallas Cowboys have been rolling.  They have gone 7-1 SU & 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games to close out the regular season.  Their lone loss was a clear flat spot at Indianapolis in Week 15 as they were coming off a huge OT win over the Eagles the previous week that essentially clinched the NFC East title.  I used the Colts as my 25* NFL Game of the Year that week, and they won 23-0.  It was the best spot of the entire season for the Colts in my opinion. 

Heck, the Cowboys even won last week when they were resting a lot of their starters.  They beat the Giants 36-35 on the road.  The way they won that game gives them a ton of momentum.  Dak Prescott found Cole Beasley in the back of the end zone on 4th down on a tremendous catch by Beasley for the game-winner, and the defense held from there. 

I just think the Seahawks are grossly overvalued.  They managed to go 10-6 this season despite failing to outgain their opponents on the season.  They actually get outgained on a yards per play basis.  They average 5.6 yards per play on offense and give up 5.9 yards per play on defense.  That is arguably the most important stat when handicapping NFL games. 

The Cowboys have averaged 26.4 points per game in their seven wins here down the stretch.  The offense has taken off with the addition of Cooper.  And the Cowboys will have both G Zack Martin and T Tyron Smith healthy for this game after they sat out last week.  And Zeke Elliott will be as healthy as he’s been after resting last week as well. 

The Seahawks have some injury questions along the offensive line with both T Duane Brown and G J.R. Sweezy questionable for this game.  The Seahawks also played their starters last week, and their performance was a lot more underwhelming.  They needed a last-second field goal to beat the awful Arizona Cardinals 27-24 as 14.5-point home favorites.  That was a Cardinals team that had lost their previous three games by 22, 26 and 14 points and finished 3-13 on the season.  The Seahawks also only beat the Cardinals 20-17 on the road earlier this season as well. 

Seattle went just 4-4 on the road this season.  One of those wins was on a neutral against Oakland, so they only won three true road games.  One was against the Cardinals, another was a fluky 30-27 win at Carolina in which they trailed the entire game, and the other was off their bye week in a great spot for them against the Lions. 

Dallas is a great home team.  The Cowboys are 7-1 SU & 5-2-1 ATS at home this season.  They are outscoring opponents by 6.5 points per game at home this year.  The Cowboys have an elite defense that gives up 20.2 points per game overall and 18.5 points per game at home. 

This is a great matchup for the Cowboys’ defense.  They are 5th in the NFL against the run, giving up 94.6 rushing yards per game.  They are also 4th in the NFL in rushing yards per attempt (3.8) allowed.  That bodes well for them going up against a Seahawks team that leads the NFL in rushing at 160.0 yards per game. 

The Cowboys figure to feed Zeke Elliott a ton in this game.  Their running game is still their bread and butter, especially with a healthy offensive line.  The Cowboys are 10th in rushing offense at 122.7 rushing yards per game while also averaging 4.5 yards per carry.  Well, the Seahawks rank 27th in yards per carry (4.9) allowed this season.  It’s also a great matchup for the Dallas offense. 

The Cowboys played the much tougher schedule this season.  According to Sagarin, the Cowboys played the 11th-toughest schedule, while the Seahawks played the 25th.  The team that played the tougher schedule according to Sagarin has gone 41-17-1 ATS since 2002 in Wild Card games.  If the difference is more than 10, the team that played the tougher schedule is cashing over 80% since 2002. 

Dallas is 6-0 ATS vs. poor defensive teams that allow 350 or more yards per game this season.  The Cowboys are 8-1 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last three seasons.  They are coming back to win by 8.6 points per game on average in this spot.  Dallas is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after allowing more than 250 passing yards in its previous game.  The Seahawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six playoff games.  Bet the Cowboys Saturday.

15* Colts/Titans NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Indianapolis -3 

The Indianapolis Colts are playing as well as anyone in the NFL right now.  They are 8-1 in their last nine games overall, impressively rebounding from a 1-5 start.  They are now on the verge of making the playoffs.  A win and they’re in, while a loss and they’re out.  It’s that simple for them here.  And they’ve fought too hard to blow this opportunity now. 

There has been nothing lucky about this run for the Colts.  In fact, they have outgained 11 of their last 12 opponents, which is the sign of an elite team.  Their defense is playing as well as it has in years, and Andrew Luck is moving the chains and putting points on the board.  There’s no question the Colts have the edge on offense in this one, scoring 26.7 points and averaging 382.9 yards per game this season. 

While the Titans also have a good defense, their offense is dreadful.  They rank 26th in total offense at 316.0 yards per game.  They are also 26th in scoring offense at 19.5 points per game.  And their job gets even more difficult on offense this week with the injury to Marcus Mariota.  He was knocked out of the game against the Redskins last week, and now Blaine Gabbert will be the starting quarterback.  I certainly don’t trust him to perform well in this huge game with their season on the line. 

I trust Andrew Luck a lot more.  Luck is 10-0 in his 10 career starts against the Titans, which includes their 38-10 victory over Tennessee on November 18th when Luck went 23-of-29 passing for 297 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions.  His dominance of the Titans continues as he improves to 11-0 against the Titans with a win and cover Sunday night. 

Teams with a win percentage of 51% to 60% are 1-12 ATS in games with a line of +3 to -3 since the start of the 2009 season when facing an opponent that beat them by 14 or more points earlier in the season.  The Colts are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.  The Titans are 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the Colts Sunday. 

20* Bears/Vikings NFC North No-Brainer on Minnesota -4 

I think the Chicago Bears are in a precarious situation here.  Yes, they are still alive for the No. 2 seed and  first-round bye, but they’re not in control of their own destiny.  They would need the Rams to lose to the 49ers and to beat the Vikings to get the No. 2 seed.  Well, the Rams are double-digit favorites over the 49ers at home this week, so players and coaches alike know that deep down inside they don’t have much of a chance. 

It’s kind of a free roll here on Minnesota.  We know the Vikings are going to be max motivated needing a win to get in the playoffs.  If they lose, the Eagles would only need to beat the Redskins this week to overtake them.  That’s likely to happen since the Eagles are 7-point favorites this week over the Redskins.  So it’s essentially a must-win game for the Vikings. 

And the Vikings have performed well in must-win mode over the last two weeks.  They throttled the Dolphins 41-17 at home, and beat the Lions 27-9 on the road.  Their offense has taken off since firing offensive coordinator DiFelippo prior to the Miami game.  And their defense has held the Dolphins and Lions to just 13 points per game and 208 yards per game the last two weeks.  This is still an elite defense, and I certainly trust the Vikings’ offense more than that of Chicago. 

The reason it’s a precarious situation for the Bears is also because they could look up at halftime and see the Rams beating the 49ers by two touchdowns or more.  If that’s the case, they could pull their starters in the second half.  They could also pull their starters if they get behind Minnesota big early.  It’s more important for them to be rested for the wild card game next week than it is for them to go ‘all in’ to try and win this game.  I don’t expect them to, contrary to what head coach Matt Nagy may tell the media leading up to this game. 

The Vikings have had one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL over the past few seasons.  They are 36-15-1 ATS in their last 52 home games, including 29-11 ATS under current head coach Mike Zimmer.  The Vikings are a perfect 6-0 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season, winning by 13.6 points per game on average in this spotl.  The home team is 23-9 ATS in the last 32 meetings.  Minnesota has won six straight home meetings with Chicago, including the last three by a whopping 20.1 points per game.  Take the Vikings Sunday. 

20* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Buffalo Bills -3.5 

You could make the argument that the Bills are playing as well as anyone in the NFL down the stretch.  The Bills have outgained their last seven opponents by a total of 578 yards, or by an average of 83 yards per game.  They rank 2nd in the NFL in total defense this season, and they’ve been competitive ever since Josh Allen returned from injury. 

Buffalo has shown up every week Allen has been under center, and they’ll certainly show up in Week 17.  Especially since they want revenge from a fluky 17-21 loss at Miami on December 2nd in their first meeting this season.  The Bills dominated that game, outgaining the Dolphins 415 to 175, or by 240 total yards.  But they found a way to lose.  This time around, I expect them to dominate the box score and the scoreboard in the rematch in Buffalo. 

Miami is coming off a dream-crushing loss to the Jaguars last week at home by 10 points.  That followed up a 24-point road loss to the Vikings.  The loss to the Jaguars officially eliminated them from playoff contention.  I don’t even expect the Dolphins to show up this week as they’ll suffer a ‘hangover’ effect from that loss to the Jaguars. 

Miami is also a warm weather team that has to now go play in the cold, which will not go well for them.  It’s expected to be below freezing in Buffalo on Sunday.  It’s a Dolphins team that has also one of the most fraudulent seven-win teams I can remember.  They are getting outgained by nearly 100 yards per game on the season.  Their seven wins have all come by 8 points or less, or by one score.  And seven of their eight losses have come by 10 points or more.  They have simply been lucky in close games this year.  I don’t expect this game to be close at all. 

The Dolphins are 6-2 at home this season compared to just 1-6 on the road.  They have one of the biggest home/road splits in the NFL.  They haven’t even been competitive on the road, going 2-5 ATS in their seven road games while getting outscored by a whopping 14.0 points per game, and outgained by 131.9 yards per game.  Buffalo is 17-9 SU & 16-10 ATS in its last 26 home meetings with Miami. 

Miami is 1-8 ATS in road games off a home game over the last two seasons, losing by 20 points per game on average in this spot.  The Dolphins are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games overall.  Buffalo has gone 5-1 ATS in its six most recent home meetings with Miami.  The favorite is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  Bet the Bills Sunday. 

20* Broncos/Raiders MNF GAME OF THE MONTH on Oakland +3 

The Oakland Raiders should not be home underdogs to the Denver Broncos tonight.  The Raiders have shown that they are going to show up every week and try to win games here down the stretch, and they will certainly show up for this rare primetime opportunity on National TV on Monday Night Football.  Especially since they are facing a hated rival in the Broncos. 

The Oakland Coliseum was built specifically for the Raiders in the mid-1960’s, but Monday night’s game against the Broncos might be the Raiders’ last game there.  Owner Mark Davis is looking for another venue for his team next season.  So you have to think that these Oakland players want to send their fans out with one final taste of victory tonight. 

“I’ve spent five years playing in the stadium and we have people talking trash about it, but I love it,” said quarterback Derek Carr.  “It’s ours. It has been fun, and that fact that it could be the last game is crazy.  When that times comes, we’ll enjoy it.” 

“I get emotional about it,” head coach Jon Gruden told reporters this week. “Hopefully, we get it resolved to where we can continue to play here next season.  It’s going to be a great atmosphere, Monday night, Christmas Eve, Denver coming to town.  I get excited thinking about it." 

The Raiders want to avenge their 19-20 loss at Denver in their first meeting this season in which Oakland blew a 12-0 halftime lead and should have won the game.  That was a much better Broncos team than the version we have now here down the stretch.  And the Broncos were 5.5-point favorites in that game at home, so if you flip home field, this line should be close to a PK if not the Raiders favored.  I actually think the Raiders should be favored by 3 given what has transpired since that first meeting. 

Jon Gruden clearly has not lost this team.  The Raiders have shown up each of the last five weeks and played hard.  They won at Arizona five weeks ago, deserved to lose 17-20 to the Ravens on the road but gave up two non-offensive touchdowns and lost by 17, hung tough in a 33-40 home loss to the Chiefs as 14-point dogs, upset the Steelers at home as 10-point dogs, and then had a 14-point loss to the Bengals last week in a game that was much closer than the final score.  And it was an obvious letdown spot for the Raiders off their huge win over the Steelers the week prior.  They’ll bounce back this week against a division rival in Denver. 

I’ve correctly faded the Broncos in each of their last two games for many of the same reasons.  The Broncos failed to cover as 3-point road favorites in a 14-20 upset loss at San Francisco.  And last week they were upset at home by the Cleveland Browns.  Key injuries are a big reason I’ve been fading the Broncos and they remain a big problem for them. 

The most important injury was losing top WR Emmanuel Sanders prior to the 49ers game with a torn ACL.  His loss was magnified by the fact that they traded away their other top receiver in DeMaryius Thomas to the Texans.  The Broncos simply don’t have any weapons left, and their offense has been bogged down because of it.  And defensively, they lost top CB Chris Harris also prior to that 49ers game.  And the injuries keep piling up for the Broncos’ defense this week as they will be without SS Su’a Cravens and LB Shane Ray. 

I also think this is a situation where the wind has been lifted out from underneath the Broncos’ sails.  They had a chance to make the playoffs after winning three straight to get to .500, and they were still alive even after the loss to the 49ers.  But heartbreaking one-point loss to the Browns last week has officially eliminated them from contention.  As is often the case, teams don’t even show up the week after their were eliminated from postseason contention.  That could easily be the case for Denver this week even though this is a primetime game, especially knowing that head coach Vance Joseph is a dead man walking. 

Denver is 0-6 ATS in road games off two or more consecutive ATS losses over the past three seasons.  The Broncos are losing by 18.6 points on average in this spot.  Denver is 0-7 ATS vs. teams who force one or fewer turnovers per game over the past two seasons.  The Broncos are 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 Monday games.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Raiders Monday. 

15* Chiefs/Seahawks NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 56

As the weather has gotten colder, games have become more and more low scoring. And it’s expected to be in the 40’s in Seattle tonight with a 40% chance of rain as well.  While the weather is a big factor to these lower scoring games at the end of the season, the fact that both teams have so much film on one another is ultimately the bigger factor.  It’s just easier on the defenses to stop opposing offenses because they know what to expect at this point in the season. 

The Chiefs have certainly become less potent offensively here down the stretch.  They failed to top 28 points in each of their last two games, and thy were held to just 294 total yards by the Chargers last week.  Now, a lot of this has to do with the weapons the Chiefs are missing.  They don’t have anyone to replace what Kareem Hunt brings to the offense, and top backup Spencer Ware remains out.  Also out is one of their top receivers in Sammy Watkins.  Mahomes just doesn’t have the same weapons he did for most of the season as he was lighting up the NFL. 

I think the Seahawks can control the pace of this game with their running game, which has been one of the best in the NFL.  They have rushed for 154 or more yards in 10 of their last 11 games, while passing for 242 or fewer yards in all but one game this season.  They have been held to less than 205 or fewer passing yards in nine of their 14 games this year, and 217 or fewer in 11 of 14.  Their offensive scheme keeps the clock running, and the Seahawks play at one of the slowest paces in the league.  They know controlling time of possession is their best chance to beat the Chiefs tonight. 

The Seahawks have held six of their last 12 opponents to 17 or fewer points.  They have a good defense that is giving up just 20.9 points per game on the season, and 19.7 points per game at home.  And the Chiefs have actually improved quite a bit defensively here down the stretch themselves.  They have held seven of their last 11 opponents to 24 or fewer points, and I certainly think they can do the same here against this slow, vanilla Seahawks offense. 

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 49.5 or higher (Kansas City) - after going over the total by 35 or more points combined in their last five games, in the second half of the season are 54-23 (70.1%) since 1983.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Chiefs last seven Week 16 games.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday. 

15* Steelers/Saints Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Pittsburgh +7 

With the Ravens winning yesterday, the Steelers need this game like blood.  A loss and the Ravens would overtake the Steelers for first place in the AFC North.  And the Ravens host the Browns next week, so it would likely been the end of the Steelers if they lose this game.  They’d miss the playoffs entirely.  As a result, they’ll be max motivated today against the Saints. 

The Steelers come in with confidence after getting the monkey off their back in an impressive 17-10 win over the Patriots.  And this is a Steelers team that simply does not get blown out.  Four of their five losses this season have come by a touchdown or less.  I expect them to stay within a touchdown of the Saints, and likely pull off the upset today with what’s at stake for them. 

Since the Rams lost last week to the Eagles, the Saints essentially have a two-game lead over the Rams for the No. 1 seed because they beat them head-to-head.  And the Saints host the Panthers next week, so they know that even if they lose this game they have that gimme game against a Carolina team that will likely have quit by that point to clinch the No. 1 seed.  Knowing they have that in their hip pocket, I do not expect the Saints to be max motivated this week. 

Even if they were to be, the Saints just aren’t playing well enough right now to be this heavily favored against a very good Pittsburgh team.  Offensively, the Saints are broken right now.  They are averaging just 283 yards per game in their last four games.  They haven’t topped 346 yards in any of those games.  Drew Brees just doesn’t have any weapons outside Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara, and it’s really starting to show.  And quietly, they have three offensive linemen starters on the injury report.  They’ll be missing G Jermon Bushrod, and both T Terron Armstead (shoulder) and C Max Unger (concussion) won’t be at 100% this week. 

I think too much is being made of the loss of James Connor.  He won’t play this week, but the Steelers have just been able to plug and play at running back.  And Jalen Samuels had 142 rushing yards and 172 yards from scrimmage last week against the Patriots.  He is getting comfortable in this offense, and he’s a real weapon dating back to his time with NC State in college both as a runner and receiver. 

The Steelers’ offense gets a lot of the attention for averaging 27.4 points and 405.8 yards per game this season.  But it’s the defense that really makes the Steelers a Super Bowl contender.  They have made huge strides on that side of the ball over the past two seasons, especially this year.  They are holding opponents to 22.6 points and 333.7 yards per game this season, including 21.3 points and 318.6 yards per game on the road.  The Steelers are outgaining their opponents by 72 yards per game this year, the sign of an elite team.   

The Steelers are outgaining their opponents by 0.9 yards per play (6.2 offensive, 5.3 defense) while the Saints are only outgaining opponents by 0.3 yards per play (6.0 offense, 5.7 defense).  Yards per play is one of the most important stats in the NFL and it’s a great indicator of how good a team really is. 

Pittsburgh is 6-0 ATS after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games this season.  The Steelers are 42-21 ATS in their last 63 games when playing against a top-level team that wins greater than 75% of their games.  Pittsburgh is 19-6-2 ATS in its last 27 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. 

Plays on road teams (Pittsburgh) - who average 265-plus passing yards per game against a poor passing defense that gives up 230-265 PYPG, after allowing 7 or more YPA in two straight games are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

Note: I took the only +7 option available on the site at extra juice.  At the time I released the pick, the line was +6.5 in most places, including at my book.  I bought the 1/2 point on the Steelers to +7 personally on my bet.  I suggest you do the same if your line is 6.5.  If not just bet it at +6, or even down to +4.5.  I think this line should be 4 at most.

15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco 49ers +5 

The Chicago Bears are coming off back-to-back victories that would rank right up there as two of their most significant wins this century.  They upset the Rams at home two weeks ago, then clinched their first division title since 2010 with their win over the hated Packers last week.  They let their guard down and celebrated harder than they’ve celebrated in a long time in the locker room and likely went out on the town after that win.  It’s only human nature that they’d suffer a letdown this week off two huge wins at home. 

But now the Bears hit the road, where they are just 3-3 this season with losses to the likes of the Giants and Dolphins this season.  They are 7-1 at home, so there is a big home-road split.  I know the Bears are still alive for the No. 2 seed, but they would need the Rams to lose at least one game over the final two weeks to have a chance.  The Rams are 14.5-point favorites over the Cardinals this week and will be double-digit home favorites over the 49ers next week.  The Bears realize it’s unrealistic. 

The 49ers’ December run continues.  They won their final five games last season, and now they are making a run at the end of this season, too.  The 49ers upset the Broncos 20-14 at home two weeks ago and then upset the Seahawks 26-23 at home last week.  I was on the 49ers in both those games, and I’m on them again this week as they are catching even more points as 5-point home dogs to the Bears. 

The reason to like the 49ers is simple.  They are much better than their 4-10 record would indicate.  In fact, the 49ers are actually outgaining their opponents by 18.8 yards per game this season.  That’s the sign of a .500 or better team, not one that currently sits at 4-10.  And just as they did at the end of last season, this team has not quit.  Kyle Shanahan is here to stay, so his players will go to war from him every week.  And they clearly seem to love him to play this hard for him to close out the season two straight years when things went so bad for the first 3/4 of the season both times. 

Nick Mullens is proving that he can be a backup quarterback in this league, if not a starter by how quickly he has grasped Shanahan’s system and excelled in it.  Mullens is completing 64.5% of his passes for 1,754 yards with 10 touchdowns and six interceptions while averaging 8.6 per attempt.  He is putting up way better numbers than C.J. Beathard, and actually better numbers than Jimmy G.  Mullens is averaging 292.3 passing yards per game in his six games this season.   

And he should have some success against a Bears defense that will be missing two key players that got injured last week in the win over the Packers.  SS Eddie Jackson and LB Aaron Lynch are both out, as is CB Bryce Callahan.  The loss of Jackson is particularly a problem for the Bears.  He was named to the Pro Bowl earlier this week, and he’s third in the NFL with six interceptions this season, two of which he has returned for touchdowns.  Jackson is the leader of the secondary and will be missed. 

Chicago is 2-12 ATS in road games when the total is 42.5 to 49 over the last three seasons.  The Bears are 14-35 ATS in their last 49 December road games.  Chicago is 3-16 ATS in its last 19 road games vs. excellent offensive teams that average 6 or more yards per play in the second half of the season.  The Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the 49ers Sunday. 

20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Buffalo Bills +14.5 

The Buffalo Bills have been flying under the radar this season.  The betting public never wants anything to do with them, so they go unnoticed.  But when you really did deep into the numbers, the Bills have been one of the best teams in the NFL since Josh Allen returned from injury. 

Indeed, the Bills have outgained their last six opponents by a combined 679 yards.  That’s an average of 113.2 yards per game, which is the sign of an elite team.  But because they’ve gone just 3-3 during this stretch, they are way undervalued.  And getting them as two-touchdown underdogs to the Patriots Sunday is an absolute gift. 

Allen actually leads the team in rushing with 506 yards, 6.7 per carry and six touchdowns this season.  He is arguably the best dual-threat QB in the league right now.  A big reason for him leading the team is that LeSean McCoy has been injured and missed the past few games.  But the offense gets a big boost this week with McCoy returning from injury to try and take down the Patriots.  It’s a sign that this team is max motivated against their division rival the fact that they aren’t sitting McCoy for the rest of the season when they easily could have. 

But what makes me really like this Bills team and what makes me back them almost every single week is their defense.  The Bills actually have the league’s 2nd best defense in the NFL this season.  They give up 292.2 yards per game on the season, which is nearly 19 yards less than the third-place Bears.  But when everyone talks about the league’s best defenses, they only mention the Ravens and Bears.  That’s why the Bills are consistently undervalued because the fact that they’re 2nd goes completely unnoticed by most. 

The Patriots’ stranglehold on the AFC may be coming to an end this year.  They wouldn’t lose like they have here down the stretch in year’s past with what has been at stake.  The Patriots are just 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS in their last five games overall.  They lost by 24 at Tennessee as 6.5-point favorites, were upset at Miami as 9-point favorites, and were upset at Pittsburgh as 2.5-point favorites.  They were also very fortunate to cover agains the Jets in a 14-point win as 13-point favorites. 

I think fatigue is taking its toll on the Patriots.  They will now be in their 5th different city in six weeks with a ton of travel due to this road-heavy schedule.  Now they are back home this week, and that’s going to be a distraction with all the things the players have to do to get ready for Christmas with their families.  Plus, they just lost their best weapon in Josh Gordon, who was once again suspended by the league.  Gordon leads the team with 720 receiving yards and 18 yards per reception.  Without him, their offense is very vanilla, especially with Rob Gronkowski clearly on the downside of his career. 

Buffalo will find some success running against this New England defense.  The Bills are rushing for 174 yards per game in their last five games, and a large portion of that has been Allen.  Now with McCoy back, they should be even more potent in the running game.  And the Patriots have not been good against the run the past two weeks, giving up 173.5 rushing yards per game and a whopping 7.5 yards per carry to the Dolphins and Steelers. 

I think the fact that New England won 25-6 in Buffalo earlier this season is making this number higher than it should be.  Well, Buffalo was playing with Derek Anderson in that game and not Allen.  And it was an 18-6 game with the Bills in the red zone before Anderson threw a pick-six that turned what would have been a 5-point game into a 19-point game.  It was a very misleading final as the Patriots only outgained the Bills by 46 yards.  It will be a much more competitive game with Allen in the second meeting Sunday. 

Plays against any team (New England) - off two or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 33-10 (76.7%) ATS since 1983.  Buffalo is 23-7 ATS in its last 30 games off three or more consecutive ATS losses.  The Bills deserved to cover in all three of those games, but since they didn’t they are way undervalued right now.  Bet the Bills Sunday.

Note: I realize the line is 13.5 in most places, but 14 wasn't an option for me, so I took the 14.5 at extra juice on the site.  I personally bought the 1/2 point on the Bills to +14 on my bet and I suggest you do the same if it's an option for you.  Otherwise just bet it at +13.5.

20* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Eagles -1.5 

Don’t look now, but the Eagles are just a half-game back of the Vikings for the 6th and final wild card spot in the NFC.  They have put themselves in this position by winning three of their last four games with their only loss coming at Dallas in overtime.  The defending Super Bowl champs are starting to show some serious resilience here down the stretch as they fight for their playoff lives. 

And the Eagles certainly come into this home game against the Houston Texans with a ton of momentum.  That’s because they upset the Rams 30-23 on the road as 13.5-point underdogs last week.  There was nothing fluky about it either as they dominated from start to finish and basically led the entire way.   

The loss of Carson Wentz was clearly overblown as the Eagles went from 8-point dogs to 13.5-point dogs last week once it was announced Wentz would be out.  In the Eagles’ locker room, they knew they had a chance to win that game with Nick Foles, and players rallied around him.  Foles delivered a big performance, completing 24-of-31 passes for 270 yards.  He utilizes Alshon Jeffery’s talents better than Wentz does because Jeffery is a jump-ball receiver.  Foles connected on all eight passes attempts to Jeffery for 160 yards. 

The Texans are grossly overvalued right now due to winning nine of their last 10 games overall coming in.  They’ve won every coin flip during this stretch, including their extremely lucky push as 7-point favorites at the New York Jets last week.  They trailed that game 19-22 with four minutes left, only to score 10 points the rest of the way to win 29-22.  The Jets turned it over on downs deep in their own territory, and the Texans tacked on a field goal that made the final margin 7 points.  The Eagles will offer a lot more resistance than the Jets did last week. 

This is a Texans team that is missing some key playmakers on offense.  Both RB Lamar Miller and WR Keke Coutee are out.  Miller leads the team with 917 rushing yards and 4.8 per carry, and it’s a big downgrade to backup Alfred Blue, who is averaging just 3.3 yards per carry on his 143 attempts.  Coutee is the team’s third-leading receiver and has been productive when healthy.  Not to mention, star receiver DeAndre Hopkins was noticeably hobbled by an ankle injury suffered on the game-winning TD catch against the Jets last week.  Not having him at 100% is a problem for the Texans. 

Philadelphia is 8-1 ATS vs. good rushing defenses that allow 90 or fewer rushing yards per game over the last three seasons.  The Texans are 1-8-1 ATS in the last four weeks of the regular season over the past three seasons.  Houston is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games played on a grass field.  The Eagles are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record. 

Plays home favorites (Philadelphia) - after having won three of their last four games against an opponent that has won eight or more of their last 10 games are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Plays against road underdogs or PK (Houston) - hot team having won eight or more of their last 10 games are 39-13 (75%) ATS over the last 10 years.  Take the Eagles Sunday. 

20* Redskins/Titans Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Washington +10.5 

I won with the Redskins as a premium pick last week.  They delivered for me with an outright upset of the Jacksonville Jaguars on the road as 7.5-point dogs.  And I’m on them again for many of the same reasons again this week as they are catching even more points as 10.5-point road dogs at Tennessee. 

Washington players knew they had no chance with Mark Sanchez at quarterback.  They were down to their third-stringer Sanchez after both Alex Smith and Colt McCoy went down with injuries in consecutive weeks.  And they played terrible against the Eagles once Sanchez took over, then even worse the next week in a blowout loss to the Giants as Sanchez basically gift-wrapped the Giants that win with turnovers. 

However, the Redskins signed Josh Johnson, and he took over for Sanchez after they were trailing the Giants 40-0.  Johnson sparked this team in the second half as they outscored the Giants 16-0 after he took over.  And then Johnson led them to victory last week against the Jaguars.  This guy is a lot better than he gets credit for.  Johnson is completing 65.9% of his passes and averaging 8.4 yards per attempt.  He also gives the Redskins a dual-threat as he has rushed for 94 yards on 16 attempts and a score while averaging 5.9 yards per carry. 

The Titans come into this game getting a lot of love due to their three-game winning streak, and it’s time to ‘sell high’ on them after back-to-back blowout wins over the Jaguars and Giants.  I just don’t think the Titans can be laying double-digits with an offense that ranks 27th in the NFL in scoring at just 19.1 points per game.  Derrick Henry is playing well the last two weeks, but they are averaging just 124 passing yards per game their past two games.   

The Redskins held the Jaguars to 192 yards last week and still have a very good defense, especially when they are locked in and focused.  And they have played their best on the road, giving up just 19.6 points per game in their seven road games this year.  I think they can hold Marcus Mariota in check, and Johnson will make enough plays for them to keep this a one-score game.  Johnson should have some success against a banged-up Titans secondary that just lost their top corner in Logan Ryan to a season-ending injury last week, and starting S Kenny Vaccaro is in concussion protocol and highly questionable. 

Tennessee is the team that is getting treated like they are in a must-win situation, but not Washington here with this 10.5-point spread.  But in reality, both teams should be equally motivated.  Washington is only a half-game back in the wild card race in the NFC, while Tennessee is tied with Indy and Baltimore for the final wild card spot in the AFC, but loses the tiebreaker to both currently.  And I have no doubt that win over the Jaguars has injected new life into this Redskins team as they really think they have a shot. 

Plays on road teams (Washington) - after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games, in December games are 46-17 (73%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Redskins are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Washington is 6-0 ATS in its last six Week 16 games.  The Titans are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine Week 16 games.  The road team is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings with four outright upsets.  Bet the Redskins Saturday. 

20* Saints/Panthers ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Carolina +6.5 

The Carolina Panthers opened 6-2 and were becoming a pretty big public team.  But now the public has been burnt by the Panthers week after week, and they’re going to be off of them now.  It’s certainly time to ‘buy low’ on the Panthers, who have now lost five consecutive games despite being favored in four of the five. 

When you dig deeper into the numbers, it’s easy to see that the Panthers are better than their 6-7 record.  In fact, the Panthers have now outgained eight of their last nine opponents.  They are outgaining opponents by 25.5 yards per game on the season.  That’s the sign of a good team, not one that currently has a losing record heading into Week 15. 

Most would believe the Panthers are ready to quit, but I beg to differ.  Just look at the standings and it’s easy to see that the Panthers are still very much alive to make the playoffs.  They sit at 6-7, just a half-game back of the 6-6-1 Vikings for the final wild card spot in the NFC.  And their closest contenders in the Redskins (6-7) and Eagles (6-7) both have huge injury issues, and both are massive road underdogs this week. 

Plus, Cam Newton received a broom from an anonymous person.  That broom signifies the season sweep the Saints put on them last year.  They won both regular season meetings, plus beat the Panthers 31-26 at home in the playoffs.  Newton already made his comments about the broom, and there’s no question he and the rest of his teammates want some serious revenge here at home Monday night. 

The Saints are ripe for the taking right now.  They just aren’t playing well at all over the past three weeks against the Falcons, Cowboys and Bucs.  They were outgained by 54 yards at home by the Falcons, by 132 yards by the Cowboys in a 10-13 road loss, and they only outgained the Bucs by 19 yards last week.  They were fortunate to win that game after trailing 14-0. 

The most staggering numbers are the poor offensive numbers the Saints are putting up.  Drew Brees may be starting to show his age, and the Saints’ lack of weapons outside Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara are starting to catch up with them.  They were held to 312 total yards by a bad Falcons defense, to just 176 yards by a good Cowboys defense, and to just 298 yards against a bad Bucs defense.  That’s an average of just 262 yards per game in their last three games.   

The Saints can’t be expected to go on the road and win by a TD or more to cover this inflated 6.5-point spread with this kind of an offense.  And the Panthers still have a very good defense that is capable of slowing down Brees and company, especially outdoors on grass.  This is also an improved Carolina offense that is averaging 378 yards per game this season. 

The Panthers have a big home/road split this season.  While they are just 1-6 on the road, they are 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS at home and outscoring opponents by 7.6 points per game.  Their offense has exploded for 30.8 points per game at home this year.  Their only home loss came to the Seahawks by a field goal 27-30 in a game in which they controlled the whole way until giving up a 35-yard TD pass on 4th and long with three minutes left to tie it, and then a field goal with no time left on the clock. 

Plays against road teams (New Orleans) - who outscore their opponents by 10 or more points per game, after allowing 14 points or less last game are 25-7 (78.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.   

Carolina is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 home games vs. good offensive teams that average 375 or more yards per game in the second half of the season.  Ron Rivera is 22-6 ATS off a road loss as the coach of Carolina.  The Panthers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games.  The underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet the Panthers Monday.

15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on on San Francisco 49ers +7 

I won with the 49ers in their upset win over the Broncos last week, and I’m back on them again this week.  I got an early +7 at -130 on them when the line was +6 mostly everywhere.  I thought it was worth it to pay the extra juice for the +7 at that point.  But now the line has dropped all the way down to Seattle -3.5 in most places, and I still recommend a play on the 49ers at +3 or better.  Obviously bet more if you got +6 or better early, and bet less if you got +3 or +3.5 late. 

This has been the biggest line move in the NFL this week, and it’s warranted.  The 49ers never should have been close to a TD underdog to the Seahawks.  In fact, I think they win this game outright.  The Seahawks are working on a short week after their huge win over the Vikings on Monday Night Football.  They will be less prepared and less rested than the 49ers will be. 

That win over the Vikings basically locked the Seahawks into the No. 5 seed in the NFC.  They now have a 99% chance of making the playoffs.  They can’t win the division, either, as the Rams clinched that already with their two head-to-head wins over the Seahawks.  So Seattle is just stuck in no-man’s land here just playing out the string and anticipating their trip to the playoffs.  The hard work is done.  And they certainly could be looking ahead to their huge showdown with the Chiefs next week.

The Seahawks are overvalued after winning four straight games coming in and going 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  But many of those were misleading wins, or wins they had no business getting.  In fact, the Seahawks have been outgained in five of their last six games overall.  That’s not the sign of a good team.  The only game they won the yardage battle was their 27-24 comeback win over the Packers at home in which they only outgained Green Bay by 19 yards. 

Meanwhile, the 49ers are grossly undervalued due to their 3-10 record.  They are much better than that as they have now outgained their opponents by 296 yards on the season, and by an average of 23 yards per game.  And they are playing their best football of the season coming in.  The 49ers have outgained four of their last five opponents by a combined 426 yards and by an average of 85.2 yards per game. 

Nick Mullens has more passing yards (746) than any other quarterback in the NFL over the last two weeks, so he is really starting to grasp Kyle Shanahan’s offense.  George Kittle had 210 receiving yards last week and ranks second in the NFL in receiving yards (1,103) by a tight end this season.  And Mullens is getting help with some players who are returning from injury.  RB Matt Breida should be back this week, and WR Marquise Goodwin returned last week after missing two games. 

I love backing teams in division games in the 2nd meeting who just recently lost their first meeting.  The Seahawks just beat the 49ers 43-16 two weeks ago in Seattle.  Well, that was one of the most misleading final scores of the year.  The 49ers gained 452 yards and held the Seahawks to 331 yards, outgaining them by 121 yards for the game.  And the Seahawks got a 98-yard INT return TD in the final minutes that turned what would have been a 13-point game into a 27-point game.  That misleading final score also has the Seahawks overvalued, and you know the 49ers are going to want to exact some revenge here at home. 

Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (San Francisco) - after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games, a bad team that wins 25% or fewer of their games on the season playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season are 56-25 (69.1%) ATS since 1983.  Don’t be surprised if the 49ers win this game outright again this week.  Take the 49ers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New York Giants -2.5 

The New York Giants played the toughest schedule in the NFL over their first eight games of the season.  It’s no surprise they opened 1-7.  But the schedule has eased up, and they’ve been handling their business since.  They have gone 4-1 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall, and they are playing with a ton of confidence right now and showing up every week.  If not for a blown 19-3 lead against the Eagles, they would be on a five-game winning streak. 

The biggest reason for their great play is the improvement on offense. The Giants have averaged 31.4 points per game in their last five games.  They hung 40 points on the Redskins last week even without Odell Beckham Jr.  And Beckham feels a lot better this week and there’s a good chance he returns to the lineup.  And besides Beckham and Landon Collins, the Giants are a very healthy team right now.  Eli Manning knows that these could be his last games as a Giant, and he’s clearly motivated to make the most of it despite their record. 

I think the Titans come in overvalued off their win over the Jaguars last week.  I’ve watched many NFL games, and I haven’t seen many teams quit as blatantly obviously as the Jaguars did.  They didn’t even try to tackle Derrick Henry, and as a result Henry had a career game with 238 rushing yards and four touchdowns.  Defenders simply got out of his way or half-ass attempted to tackle him.  I give the Titans zero credit for that win. 

The Titans have not been good on the road this season.  They are just 2-5 SU & 3-4 ATS in road games.  They have one of the worst offenses in the NFL, averaging just 19.3 points per game on the season.  Their offense has been even worse on the road, scoring just 16.4 points per game an averaging only 306.9 yards per game.  I just don’t trust Marcus Mariota and this offense to score enough points here to win this game against the Giants. 

Tennessee is 0-6 ATS in road games off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  The Titans are losing by a whopping 20.2 points per game on average in this spot.  The Titans are 1-10 ATS in road games after gaining 6 or more yards per play in their previous game over the past three seasons. 

Plays on home favorites (NY Giants) - in non-conference games, off a win by 10 points or more against a division opponent are 30-7 (81.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Roll with the Giants Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Redskins +7 

The Jacksonville Jaguars are just 4-9 this season.  They can’t be laying a touchdown to the Washington Redskins, or any team for that matter.  Not after what I saw last week against the Titans.  They didn’t even try to tackle Derrick Henry, and he rushed for 238 yards and four touchdowns in a 30-9 win by Tennessee. 

I can say with confidence that the Jaguars have quit.  This is a team that made the AFC Championship Game last year with big expectations coming into the season.  Now, at 4-9 and with nothing to play for, they have simply packed it in.  I don’t see them showing up this week at all, and even if they did they aren’t good enough to cover this 7-point spread. 

Unlike the Jaguars, the Redskins still have a lot to play for.  The Vikings are currently the 6th and final wild card team in the playoffs if the season were to end today at 6-6-1.  Well, the Redskins are 6-7, so they are only a half-game back in the wild card.  As ugly as it’s been of late for the Redskins, they can still look to the standings and realize they have a legit chance of making the playoffs.  And I fully expect them to show up these final three weeks. 

I also think the Redskins are being undervalued this week off their 40-16 loss to the Giants last week.  Well, Mark Sanchez is maybe the worst backup QB in the NFL, and he simply gift-wrapped the Giants several points.  The Redskins trailed that game 40-0 before giving way to Josh Johnson. 

Sure, the Giants probably didn’t try too hard after being up 40-0, but either way I was impressed with what I saw from Johnson.  He outscored the Giants 16-0 the rest of the way after he entered the game.  Johnson finished 11-of-16 passing for 195 yards with one touchdown and one interception, while also leading the team with 45 rushing yards and a score on only seven carries.  He averaged 12.2 yards per pass attempt and 6.4 rushing yards per attempt.  Those are elite numbers. 

Well, Johnson will get the start this week as Jay Gruden was impressed enough with what he saw to give him the nod.  And I think the Redskins as a team realize they had no chance of winning games with Sanchez at the held, so the fact that Johnson is starting has re-energized them.  They played hard for him to close out that Giants game, and they’ll play hard for him again this week against a Jaguars team that has quit.  I’ll gladly take the points on the more motivated team here. 

The Redskins get some good news in the injury department this week, too.  Their top playmaker in Jamison Crowder is back healthy and had 87 receiving yards and a score last week.  Josh Doctson had 84 receiving yards last week and should be available this week.  Both starting tackles along the offensive line in Trent Williams and Morgan Moses are both healthy and probable.  That will certainly help Johnson having his two starting tackles protecting him. 

Look for the Redskins to run wild on the Jaguars behind Johnson, Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson.  The Jaguars did not want to tackle Henry last week, and they certainly don’t want to try and tackle Peterson, either.  This is a Jaguars defense that has really fallen off this season, especially down the stretch.  They have allowed 24 or more points in four of their last six games overall. 

It’s also a Jaguars offense that has really struggled and one that is going through a quarterback controversy with Blake Bortles getting benched in favor of Cody Kessler.  Kessler has led the Jaguars to an average of just 7.5 points per game in his two starts over the past two weeks.  The Jaguars have yet to decide who will be under center, but it won’t matter.  This offense is simply not good enough to be laying 7 points to anyone, especially not against a Redskins defense that has been respectable this season in allowing 22.8 points per game.  The Jaguars average just 16.3 points per game on the season. 

Washington is a perfect 7-0 ATS after allowing 6.5 or more yards per play in their previous game over the past two seasons.  The Redskins are coming back to win by 6.6 points per game on average in this spot.  Jacksonville is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games after being outrushed by 100 or more yards in its previous game.  Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following a double-digit home loss.  The Jaguars are 1-6-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  The Redskins are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with the Redskins Sunday.

25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on Indianapolis Colts -2.5 

I was on the Colts last week in their outright win over the Texans, and I’m right back on them this week as my strongest release of the entire 2018 NFL season.  They have made my 25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR label for this game against the Dallas Cowboys.  Every factor in this game favors the Colts, and thus getting them as only 2.5-point home favorites is an absolute gift from oddsmakers and the biggest line mistake of the season. 

It mostly comes down to the motivational mismatch in favor of the Colts.  They need this game like they need blood.  There are currently four teams in the AFC tied at 7-6 for the final wild card spot, and the Colts have an outside shot to win the division.  The Colts have put themselves in this position by going 6-1 SU in their last seven games overall, and they aren’t about to let up now that they are so close they can taste the postseason. 

The Cowboys are coming off their ’Super Bowl’, a gutsy 29-23 (OT) home win over the Philadelphia Eagles that all but locked up the division.  After that win, the Cowboys currently have a 99% chance of winning the division.  They would have to go 0-3 and have either the Redskins go 3-0 or the Eagles go 3-0 to not win the division.  Well, the Eagles are double-digit underdogs at the Rams this week and just lost Carson Wentz, and the Redskins are mess with all their injuries and are 7-point road dogs to the Jaguars.  In all reality, the Cowboys have already won the division.  They will suffer a ‘hangover’ effect from that win over the Eagles. 

The Colts have outgained nine of their last 10 opponents.  That’s the sign of a really good team and one I want to get my money behind.  Andrew Luck is back to being Andrew Luck, and the Colts have one of the most improved defenses in the NFL.  All of that young talent they’ve drafted over the past several seasons is finally starting to pay off.  They have held their last four opponents to an average of just 15.3 points per game. 

And I really like the matchup for the Colts’ defense.  Their strength is their run defense, which ranks 8th in the NFL in giving up just 102.9 rushing yards per game.  They also rank 5th in the NFL in yards per carry (3.8) allowed.  And they’ve been even better in recent weeks, holding their last five opponents to just 91.8 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry.  They should be able to limit Zeke Elliott, who was hobbled in that win over the Eagles and could have his workload limited after touching the ball 40 times last week.

One hidden advantage here is Indianapolis head coach Frank Reich, the former offensive coordinator in Philadelphia.  The Eagles clearly miss him as their offense has been atrocious this year and terrible on 3rd downs, whereas the Colts are one of the best 3rd down offenses in the NFL.  But Reich knows the personnel in the NFC East, and he’s actually gone 2-0 ATS against NFC East teams this season, beating the Redskins outright and covering in a last-second loss to the Eagles.  And he certainly knows Dallas’ personnel as well as it hasn’t changed much from last year.  He’ll come up with a game plan to beat their defense, while also helping his defensive coaches with the Cowboys’ offense.

I think the Cowboys are starting to be overvalued now this week after going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  I just don’t think they show up at all this week.  The Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against teams with a winning record.  Plays on home favorites (Indianapolis) - after having won two of their last three games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Colts Sunday. 

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Buffalo Bills -2.5 

The Bills really should be in the midst of a four-game winning streak right now.  But since they’re not and actually failed to cover the closing line each of the last two weeks, I think they are undervalued now.  Meanwhile, the Lions are coming off a misleading 17-3 win at Arizona last week, and they’ve overvalued. 

Two weeks ago, the Bills outgained the Dolphins by 240 yards and lost 17-21 as 3.5-point dogs.  Then last week, the Bills outgained the Jets by 120 yards and lost 23-27 as 4.5-point home favorites.  They led that Jets game 14-3 and never trailed until the final minute.  It’s two games they should have won but they didn’t, and they won their previous two games against the the Jets and Jaguars by a combined 34 points.  In fact, the Bills have outgained four of their last five opponents by a combined 680 yards, or by an average of 136 yards per game.  That’s the sign of an elite team. 

The Bills have been playing much better football ever since Josh Allen returned to the lineup.  Allen has actually rushed for 99 or more yards in three consecutive games, which is unheard of in today’s NFL.  And if his receivers quit dropping passes, he’d be putting up even better numbers through the air.  After his receivers let him down last week, I think they’ll be extra focused to make amends for their quarterback this week. 

Buffalo has an elite defense, which is my favorite thing about this team.  They actually rank 1st in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 290.6 yards per game.  Not too many people saw that coming heading into the season.  There’s nothing fluky about it because they are 2nd in the NFL in yards per play (4.8) allowed.  They will shut down the Lions this week. 

Detroit is just 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in its last seven games overall.  And really the Lions are fortunate to even have two wins during this stretch.  They have been outgained in six of their last seven games, and eight of their last 10 games overall.  That’s the sign of a bad team. 

Matthew Stafford looks lost ever since trading Golden Tate and having Marvin Jones go down to injury.  There just aren’t any playmakers left on this team.  The score showed Detroit winning 17-3 against Arizona last week, but they were outgained by the Cardinals and managed just 218 total yards.  The Lions managed only 96 passing yards on 23 attempts.  This offense has been dreadful, and it won’t get any easier against the Bills this week. 

Detroit is a dome team that certainly won’t enjoy the cold weather this late in the year in Buffalo.  The Lions don’t have anything to play for, and I trust this young Bills team with a rookie quarterback to keep showing up because they have showed up every week that Allen has been under center.  They’re the better team, and they’re only laying 2.5 points here at home.  Sign me up. 

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Detroit) - after allowing 6 points or less last game against an opponent that is coming off a loss by 6 points or less are 36-12 (75%) ATS since 1983.  The Lions are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games off a double-digit road win.  The Bills are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 home games vs. bad defensive teams that allow 24 or more points per game in the second half of the season.  Detroit is 17-36-1 ATS in its last 54 games after allowing less than 15 points in its previous game.  Take the Bills Sunday.

15* Browns/Broncos AFC ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland +3 

I faded the Broncos last week and won the 49ers.  And I’m fading them again this week for many of the same reasons.  But a new reason popped up this week.  That loss crushed Denver’s playoff hopes.  They now have just a 5% chance of making the playoffs, and they are four teams ahead of them now fighting for that final wild card spot.  In other words, their season is over, and I think they suffer a ‘hangover’ effect from that defeat. 

Denver is overvalued right now due to going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  But two of those wins were fluky, and they beat up on an injury-riddled Bengals team in their only legit win.  In fact, the Broncos have been outgained by a total of 440 yards in their last four games, or by an average of 110 yards per game.  With stats like that they should be 0-4 and 1-3 at best. 

But the biggest reason I faded the Broncos last week was because they lost two key players to injury the previous week.  Emmanuel Sanders was lost to a season-ending Achilles injury.  The loss of Sanders was huge because they already traded away Demaryius Thomas.  Sanders was having a career season with 71 receptions for 868 yards and four touchdowns in 12 games.  They just don’t have many playmakers left at receiver for Case Keenum. 

On defense, the loss of Chris Harris is a big one.  He is their top cover corner.  San Francisco 3rd-string quarterback Nick Mullens lit up this Denver defense for 332 passing yards and two touchdowns.  And you can bet that Baker Mayfield, who is in line to win Rookie of the Year honors, will light them up as well.  The Broncos also have a couple other defensive backs that have shown up on the injury report this week. 

Cleveland comes in playing very well, going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  Unlike Denver, there hasn’t been anything fluky about the Browns’ run.  They have outgained their last four opponents in cumulative total yards, and the offense is hitting its stride by scoring 26 or more points in all three wins behind the guidance of new coordinator Freddie Kitchens.  The only exception was the loss at Houston, but the Browns had a TD called back and also fumbled through the end zone for a touchdown.  They have 428 total yards against that good Houston defense. 

The Browns are looking up at the AFC North standings right now and feeling like they have a legit chance to win the division.  And belief can go a long way in this league.  And they get to play on Saturday, so they won’t get to see the results from Sunday yet.  They’ll be ‘all in’ for this game, unlike Denver.  The Browns trail the Steelers by two games, but the Steelers are underdogs this week and they’ll be underdogs to the Saints next week.  And though they also trail the Ravens by 1.5 games, they still get to play the Ravens in Week 17, which could ultimately decide the division.  And the Browns host the Bengals next week, so they will have a legit shot of getting to 8-7-1, which could be good enough to win this division. 

Denver is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games following two consecutive road games.  The Broncos are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after trailing their previous game by 14 points or more at halftime.  Plays against home teams (Denver) - after covering the spread in three of their last four games, in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40% to 49%) are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS since 1983.  Roll with the Browns Saturday. 

20* Chargers/Chiefs AFC West No-Brainer on UNDER 53 

The Chargers trail the Chiefs by one game in the AFC West standings.  They can move into a first place tie with the Chiefs with a win Thursday night.  It’s safe to say this game will be played close to the vest, especially in a bitter rivalry between these division opponents who are very familiar with one another.  And I think the defenses win out in this one, so I’ll side with the UNDER. 

There’s several reasons to like the UNDER.  The first and most important is that both teams are short on weapons right now.  The Chargers are going to likely be without Melvin Gordon, and backup RB Austin Ekeler is questionable as well.  For the Chiefs, they will be without starting RB Kareem Hunt and backup RB Spencer Ware.  They’ll also be without WR Sammy Watkins, and fellow WR Tyreek Hill was noticeably hobbled with a heel injury against the Ravens on Sunday.  Hill will play tonight, but on a short week I question how productive he’ll be. 

The Ravens were able to slow down the Chiefs last week behind one of the best defenses in the NFL.  And the Chargers have the ability to do the same thing.  This is a Chargers defense that is giving up just 16.7 PPG over their last nine games.  Since getting Joey Bosa back from injury, they’ve been even better.  Bosa and Melvin Ingram combine for arguably the best pass-rushing duo in the NFL. 

The Chiefs do not have a good defense, but it’s worth noting they have been able to hold teams in check in recent weeks as well.  In fact, the Chiefs have allowed 23 or fewer points in seven of their last 10 games overall. I like their chances of holding the Chargers to 23 or fewer tonight as well.  It’s going to be cold and there’s a chance of rain today in Kansas City.  The UNDER is 48-21-1 in Chiefs last 70 home games.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Chargers last nine vs. AFC West opponents. 

The Chargers are 10-1 UNDER vs. bad defensive teams that give up 24 or more points per game in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  Kansas City is 9-0 UNDER In home games vs. teams who allow 5.65 or more yards per play over the last three years.  Los Angeles is 10-1 UNDER in December games over the last three seasons.  The Chargers are 7-0 UNDER off three or more consecutive wins over the last two years.  These four trends combine for a 36-2 system backing the UNDER tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday. 

20* Vikings/Seahawks MNF Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 45.5 

This is essentially a play-in game for the playoffs.  It will have a playoff atmosphere as the Seahawks are 7-5 and the Vikings are 6-5-1, both fighting to earn a wild card spot.  In the case of the Vikings, they’re still alive to win the NFC North.  I think this game is played close to the vest, and I think points will be very hard to come by as both of these defenses control this game. 

I also like the fact that both teams will be looking to run the football, which will keep the clock moving.  The Seahawks have really become a run-heavy team, which has been key to their success.  They have rushed 28 or more times in 10 consecutive games now.  They have more rushing attempts than pass attempts in eight of those 10 games. 

Well, the Vikings have been a great defense overall, and especially against the run.  They rank 7th in rushing defense, giving up just 99.2 yards per game on the ground.  The Vikings are also tied for 2nd in rushing yards per attempt (3.7) allowed this season.  They’ll be able to shut down this Seahawks offense. 

The Vikings know they need to run the ball more if they want to win this time of year.  They have gotten pass-happy in recent losses to the Bears and Patriots.  They should get back to their ground game this week knowing that the Seahawks are vulnerable against the run.  In fact, the Seahawks are tied for last in yards per carry (5.1) allowed this season.  The Vikings would be foolish not to run the ball more and keep that clock moving. 

The most recent meeting between these teams came in the playoffs in 2016.  The Seahawks won that game 10-9 in Minnesota.  The Vikings managed just 183 total yards in that game, while the Seahawks had just 226 total yards.  I don’t think it will be that low-scoring again, but I do think this game stays well UNDER the 45.5-point total. 

The UNDER is 4-0 in Vikings last four games in December.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Vikings last six Monday games.  The UNDER is 6-2 in Seahawks last eight Monday games.  Seattle is 10-2 UNDER in its last 12 home games after scoring 30 points or more in two straight games. 

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 42.5 to 49 points (Minnesota) - an average team (+/- 0.4 YPP) against a poor team (outgained by 0.4 to 1.0 YPP) after eight-plus games are 31-6 (83.8%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday. 

15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco 49ers +4.5 

With three more turnovers last week against the Seahawks, including a 98-yard INT return TD, the 49ers now have the worst turnover differential (-20) in the NFL.  These teams with horrible turnover differentials are undervalued this late in the year, because there’s a big element of luck in turnovers. 

I have no doubt the 49ers are better than their 2-10 record would suggest.  And a quick look at the numbers shows that this should at least be a 6-6 team or better.  They 49ers have outgained their opponents by 174 yards on the season.  They are outgaining them by 15.2 yards per game.  That’s not the sign of a 2-10 team. 

The Broncos are +8 in turnovers over the past three weeks, which has allowed them to win three straight games over the Steelers, Chargers and Bengals.  But they had no business winning those games against the Steelers and Chargers as those two teams simply gave the game away.  And the Bengals are decimated with injuries playing with a backup QB.  They’re broken. 

The 49ers do show up every week.  Their 16-43 loss to the Seahawks last week makes most bettors seem like they packed it in.  But that wasn’t the case, and it was one of the most misleading finals of the week.  I mentioned the 98-yard INT return TD the Seahawks got at the end of the game.  But the 49ers gained 452 total yards and gave up 331, actually outgaining the Seahawks by 121 yards in that contest.  They deserved better, and Nick Mullens had one of his better games of the season with 386 passing yards. 

The Broncos have some key injuries this week that will make them less effective.  Emmanuel Sanders suffered an Achilles injury in practice on Wednesday that has landed him on IR.  Sanders was having a great year with 71 receptions for 868 yards and four touchdowns.  And since the Broncos traded away Demaryius Thomas, his loss is even more significant.  The Broncos are seriously lacking weapons for the mediocre Case Keenum now.   

Plus, the Broncos’ best pass defender is Chris Harris Jr., and he’s out with a fractured fibula now.  The 49ers were without both Marquise Goodwin and Pierre Garcon last week.  But Goodwin is expected to return, giving Mullens another big weapon outside.  And Garcon is questionable and could make his return this week as well.  Mullens should be able to make some more plays in the passing game this week. 

Denver is 0-6 ATS vs. teams who force one or fewer turnovers per game on the season over the last two seasons.  The Broncos are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after gaining more than 150 rushing yards in their previous game.  This is clearly a ‘buy low’ situation on the 49ers, and a ‘sell high’ situation on the Broncos.  Roll with the 49ers Sunday. 

15* Ravens/Chiefs AFC Sunday No-Brainer on Baltimore +7 

I agree with this line move.  The Chiefs opened as 7.5-point favorites or higher, and now this line has been bet down to 6.5 in most places as of this writing.  So if your book as +6.5 make sure to buy it up to +7 and bet the Ravens. 

This really comes down to the numbers for me.  The Ravens have the numbers of an elite team in spite of their mediocre 7-5 record.  They are outgaining teams by 102 yards per game on the season.  To compare, the Chiefs are only outgaining teams by 20 yards per game, which isn’t the sign of a 10-2 team.  I think the Chiefs are grossly overrated at this point of the season. 

The problem with the Chiefs is that they give up 27.2 points per game while ranking 31st in the league in total defense at 417 yards per game allowed.  Only the Bengals have been worse.  The Ravens rank 1st in the NFL in scoring defense at 17.8 points per game allowed, and 1st in total defense at 281.7 yards per game allowed. 

Lamar Jackson took over three games ago, and the Ravens have gone 3-0 in his starts while outscoring their three opponents by a combined 30 points, or by an average of 10 points per game.  They have become a run-heavy team since Jackson took over, averaging a whopping 238 rushing yards per game in their last three games.  That doesn’t bode well for the Chiefs, who are tied for dead last in the NFL in allowing 5.1 yards per carry this season.  So this is a great matchup for the Ravens’ offense.  They can control time of possession and keep Mahomes off the field with their ground game. 

It’s also a great matchup for the Ravens’ defense.  The Chiefs won’t be running the ball much now that Kareem Hunt has been released.  And they'll certainly miss his 1,202 yards from scrimmage and 14 total touchdowns as he was a matchup nightmare, especially in the passing game.  The Chiefs will be putting the ball in Pat Mahomes’ hand even more.

Well, the Ravens rank 2nd in the NFL against the pass, giving up just 194.4 passing yards per game.  Better yet, the Ravens are 1st in the NFL in passing yards per attempt (6.1) allowed.  No other defense is even close to them in that department as only three teams allow fewer than 6.8 per attempt this season. 

Baltimore is 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 375 or more yards per game in the second half of the season.  Kansas City is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games after gaining 450 or more total yards in its previous game.  The Ravens are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in their previous game.  Bet the Ravens Sunday. 

20* AFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Indianapolis Colts +5 

In the NFL, lines are very tight.  And if a line if a point or two off, that’s all it takes for there to be some value.  I think this line should be Texans -3.  So we are basically getting two points of value on the Colts +5 this week.  That’s enough for me to pull the trigger. 

I believe the Texans are overvalued due to their 9-game winning streak.  And they’re coming off a misleading 16-point win over the Browns last week.  The Browns basically gave that game away by losing the turnover battle 4-0.  They had a 75-yard TD called back by a penalty, and they had another would-be 75-yard TD on the next play end in a player fumbling the ball through the end zone for a touchback.  The Browns gained 428 yards on the Texans and outgained them by 44 yards for the game. 

I believe the Colts come in undervalued this week off their upset 6-0 shutout loss at Jacksonville last week.  But the Colts actually outgained the Jaguars by 54 yards and held them to 211 yards.  In fact, the Colts have now outgained eight of their last nine opponents coming in.  That’s the sign of an elite team and one that I want to put my money behind, especially as 5-point underdogs. 

There’s no doubt the Colts want revenge from their 34-37 (OT) home loss to the Texans earlier this season in their first meeting.  The Colts gained 478 total yards on the Texans and moved the ball at will.  I think the Texans will relax this week.  They have a three-game lead over both the Colts and Titans in the division, so they can afford a loss.  Meanwhile, the Colts are in must-win mode here trying to stay alive for a wild card spot. 

Andrew Luck has been tremendous off a loss.  In fact, Luck is 25-8 SU & 24-9 ATS in his last 33 games as a starting quarterback following a defeat.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Indianapolis) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 35 or more points, who are also off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival are 30-9 (76.9%) ATS since 1983. 

The road team is 6-1-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Colts are 7-3-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  The Colts are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five trips to Houston.  Indianapolis is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games after scoring 14 points or fewer in its previous game.  The Texans are 1-7 ATS in their last eight December games.  Take the Colts Sunday. 

25* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Buffalo Bills -3 

The Buffalo Bills deserved to blow out the Miami Dolphins last week.  But the fact that they somehow lost that game 17-21 has them undervalued coming into this game.  They failed to cover the spread as closing 3.5 points underdogs, and it was one of the most misleading finals of the season. 

The Bills gained 415 total yards and held the Dolphins to just 175 total yards, outgaining them by 240 yards for the game.  Those stats alone show that the Bills should have won the game.  But Charles Clay dropped what would have been a game-winning touchdown catch late as well.  I think it works out better for us this week that they actually lost though, because now we’re laying only 3 points instead of 4 or more. 

The Jets are getting too much credit for giving the Titans a run for their money last week.  The Jets actually led that game most the way, but eventually lost 22-26, covering as 10-point underdogs.  But they were thoroughly out-statted as well.  The Jets gained just 280 total yards and gave up 403 total yards, getting outgained by 123 yards by the Titans. 

The Jets are now 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  They have been blown out consistently with all six losses by 4 points or more, five losses by 7 points or more, and four losses by 14 points or more.  They have been outscored by 90 points during this losing streak, or by an average of 15 points per game. 

The reason I love this Bills team is because they play defense.  In fact, the Bills rank 2nd in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 294.2 yards per game.  The third place Bears give up 317.9 yards per game, and they only trail the Ravens (281.7) in this category.  They have an elite defense, yet they don’t get credit for it. 

The Bills have played much better on offense when either Josh Allen or Matt Barkley has been under center at quarterback.  In fact, Allen ranks 3rd in the NFL in rushing over the last two weeks, rushing for a combined 234 yards the past two games.  I don’t think he gets enough credit for being the dual-threat he is, completing opening up this offense and making opposing defenses defend the entire field. 

The Jets are a bad team, period.  They get outgained by 75.4 yards per game on the season, while the Bills only get outgained by 8.5 yards per game.  The Jets rank 23rd in total defense, giving up 376.4 yards per game on the season.  New York also ranks 30th in total offense, averaging just 301.0 yards per game on the season. 

Buffalo blew out New York 41-10 on the road as 7-point underdogs in their first meeting this season.  This was every bit the blowout the final score showed and wasn’t misleading at all.  The Bills gained 451 total yards in that game and gave up just 199 yards, outgaining the Jets by 252 total yards in that contest.  The Bills rushed for 212 yards on the Jets, and Matt Barkley played well with 232 passing yards and two touchdowns.  Allen and company should also have plenty of success on this Jets defense once again. 

The Jets are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games off a road cover where they lost straight up as an underdog.  New York is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 road games after allowing 25 points or more in two straight games.  Buffalo is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 home games vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points per game in the second half of the season.  The Jets are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. AFC East opponents.  The Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last six home meetings with the Jets.  Bet the Bills Sunday. 

15* Jaguars/Titans AFC South ANNIHILATOR on Jacksonville +5.5 

Let’s start out by looking at this game from a line value perspective.  The Jaguars were 10-point favorites over the Titans at home in their first meeting.  So adjust for home-field advantage, they would have been roughly 4-to-5-point road favorites at that time.  Instead, they are 5.5-point road underdogs, which is basically a 10-point adjustment.  The line value is clearly on the Jaguars tonight. 

I like the fact that they didn’t quit on their season.  The Jaguars shut out the Colts 6-0 last week, playing the role of spoiler very well.  And now they want revenge on the Titans from three straight losses against them, including their 6-9 upset loss earlier this season.  They would love to beat the Titans here and end their playoff hopes as well. 

The Titans were fortunate to escape with a 26-22 home win over the lowly Jets last week.  They trailed the Jets 6-19 in the 3rd quarter, but scored a touchdown with 36 seconds left to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.  And that’s a bad Jets team that loses by double-digits week after week.  They’ll have a much bigger problem with the Jaguars tonight. 

The Jaguars have been a lot more competitive whenever Leonard Fournette has been in the lineup.  He has missed several games due to injury, and last week he was out with a suspension.  But he’s back this week and ready to have a big game against the Titans.  Fournette has only played in five games this season.  He’ll be fresh since he had last week off following a very productive game against the Bills the previous week. 

I know the Jaguars are going with backup Cody Kessler again this week.  However, he’s not much of a downgrade from Blake Bortles, who has had a brutal season.  Kessler has actually shown well, completing 72.2% of his 54 attempts this season with one touchdown and one interception.  He’ll be much more comfortable in his second start of the season here for the Jaguars. 

The Jaguars (4-8) are the team with the stats of a 6-6 or better team, while the Titans (6-6) are a team with the stats of closer to a 4-8 team.  The Jaguars actually outgain their opponents by nearly 20 yards per game on the season.  They have an elite defense that ranks 3rd in the NFL in giving up just 315.6 yards per game. 

The Titans are actually getting outgained by 31 yards per game on the season.  They have a dreadful offense that scores just 18.4 points per game while ranking 28th in total offense at 310.2 yards per game.  The Jaguars should be able to shut them down, which will be a big reason why they are able to stay within this 5.5-point spread tonight. 

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Jacksonville) - in a game involving two good defensive teams that allow 18-23 PPG, after eight-plus games, after scoring and allowing 14 points or less last game are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS since 1983. 

The Titans are 0-6 ATS vs. poor offensive teams that score 17 or less points per game over the last three seasons.  The Jaguars are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games after scoring and allowing 14 points or less last game.  Tennessee is 0-6 ATS after gaining 400 or more total yards in its previous game over the last three seasons.  The Titans are 15-33-3 ATS in their last 51 vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the Jaguars Thursday.

20* Redskins/Eagles MNF TOTAL OF THE MONTH on UNDER 45.5 

This is a division rivalry with a lot at stake.  The Eagles are trying to keep pace with the Redskins and Cowboys in the NFC East, while the Redskins are just trying to stay afloat after a fast start to the season.  I think this game will be played closer to the vest, and I certainly think it favors both defenses than both offenses, which is why I’ll side with the UNDER Monday night. 

Both offenses are really struggling this season.  The Redskins rank 27th in total offense at 331.5 yards per game, while the Eagles are 19th at 353.9 yards per game.  The Redskins are also 27th in scoring offense at 20.0 points per game, while the Eagles are 23rd at 20.9 points per game. 

Both of these teams are led by their defenses.  The Redskins are 7th in scoring defense, giving up just 20.8 points per game.  The Eagles are 15th at 23.0 points per game, but I have no doubt they are better than that with the talent that’s on hand. 

And Philadelphia should have no problem shutting down a Washington offense that has been plagued by injuries along the offenses line, at the skill positions, and at quarterback.  The Redskins are using backup QB Colt McCoy after Alex Smith suffered a gruesome injury a few weeks back.  And he’s getting no protection and terrible play from the skill positions outside of TE Jordan Reed due to injuries. 

Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (Washington) - in a game involving two good defensive teams that allow 18-23 PPG, after allowing 30 points or more last game are 38-13 (74.5%) over the last five seasons. 

Philadelphia is 6-0 UNDER in home games vs. poor pass defenses that allow 7 or more yards per attempts over the last three seasons.  The Eagles are 9-2 UNDER in home games where the total is 42.5 to 49 points over the last two seasons.  Philadelphia is 8-0 UNDER in home games off a division game over the last three years.  The Eagles are 7-0 UNDER in home games after having lost two of their last three games coming in over the last three years.  Take the UNDER in this game Monday. 

20* Chargers/Steelers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Pittsburgh -3 

The Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off a misleading 17-24 road loss to the Denver Broncos.  I think it has them undervalued this week, and they should be laying more than a field goal to the San Diego Chargers on Sunday Night Football. 

The Steelers clearly deserved to win that game against the Broncos.  They amassed 527 total yards and held the Broncos to 308, outgaining them by 219 yards.  Yet, they still found a way to lose because they lost the turnover battle 4-0.  They had several drives inside the Denver 20-yard line that resulted in zero points, including the final drove where Big Ben was intercepted in the end zone. 

I still believe the Steelers are closer to the team that had won six straight prior to that lost while going 5-0-1 ATS than the one that lost to the Broncos.  They should be re-focused at home Sunday night against a Chargers team that has lost every time they’ve stepped up in class. 

The Chargers lost by 10 at home to the Chiefs and by 12 on the road to the Rams.  They also lost at home to that same Broncos team.  Their eight wins have come against the Bills, 49ers, Raiders (twice), Browns, Titans, Seahawks and Cardinals.  Only one of those teams has a winning record, and that’s Seattle, and the Chargers had a bye prior to facing the Seahawks so it was a dream spot for them.

The Chargers lost their best weapon on offense last week to a knee injury in Melvin Gordon.  His absence is huge in this game as the Chargers need all the weapons they can get to keep up with this high-powered Steelers offense.  Gordon has rushed for 802 yards and nine touchdowns, while also catching 44 balls for 453 yards and four scores.  He is their third-leading receiver, so he’ll be missed in the passing game as well.

Plays on favorites (Pittsburgh) - after having won three of their last four games against an opponent that has won eight or more of their last 10 games are 30-6 (83.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Mike Tomlin is 8-1 ATS after gaining 500 or more total yards in their previous game as the coach of Pittsburgh.  Take the Steelers Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cincinnati Bengals +5.5 

This is the ultimate ‘buy low, sell high’ situation here.  We’ll buy low on the Bengals, who have lost three straight and five of their last six, meaning the betting public wants nothing to do with them.  And we’ll sell high on the Broncos, who are coming off back-to-back upset victories over the Chargers and Steelers. 

The Broncos were coming off their bye prior to that win over the Chargers, so it was a great spot for them.  And only poor coaching by the Chargers allowed the Broncos to win that game.  They erased a 19-7 deficit to win 23-22.  And the Steelers win was even more misleading.  The Broncos were outgained by 219 yards and gave up 527 total yards to the Steelers.  But they won the turnover battle 4-0.  It was a complete fluke. 

The Bengals have been plagued by injuries, which is a big reason for their recent struggles.  But they are expected to get star receiver AJ Green back from injury this week, and he makes a huge difference for this team.  I know the Bengals will be without Andy Dalton this week, but Jeff Driskel really impressive me last week, and I think he’s good enough to beat the Broncos with Green at his disposal now. 

The Bengals trailed the Browns 28-0 last week.  They only ended up losing 20-35, and a lot of that had to do with Driskel.  They seemed energized when he came into the game, and that should carry over this week.  Driskel finished 17-of-29 passing for 155 yards with a touchdown in the comeback attempt, while also rushing for a score.  I think this team continues to be energized by their backup QB, who is better than he gets credit for. 

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Denver) - after having won two of their last three games, a team that wins 40% to 49% of their games on the season playing a losing team are 68-27 (71.6%) ATS since 1983. 

The Broncos are 4-11 ATS int heir last 15 road games.  Denver is 1-7-1 ATS in its last nine games after allowing more than 250 passing yards in its previous game.  The Bengals are 9-3 ATS int heir last 12 vs. AFC opponents.  Cincinnati is 20-8-1 ATS in its last 29 December games.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet the Bengals Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Falcons -1.5 

Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are getting way too much respect for back-to-back home wins against the Bengals and Raiders.  These two teams have been two of the worst in the NFL over the past month-plus, so those wins are nothing to write home about. 

Plus, they only beat the Bengals by a final of 24-21 as 6.5-point home favorites, so they failed to cover the spread.  And they were extremely fortunate to cover against the Raiders last week as 13-point favorites, winning 34-17 thanks to two non-offensive touchdowns with one on special teams and one on defense. 

The Ravens take a big step up in class this week against the Falcons.  The Falcons are undervalued off three straight losses, which followed up three straight wins.  But they had their chance to win each of the last three games, but they blew it with red zone struggles. 

Atlanta’s 17-31 loss at New Orleans last week was one of the most misleading final scores of the week.  I know because I had the Falcons +13.5 in that game and was extremely unlucky not to cash that ticket.  The Flacons outgained the Saints and held them to just 312 total yards, but they committed four turnovers, including three fumbles inside New Orleans’ 20-yard line.  Had they simply kicked one field goal on one of those three drives, they would have covered the 13.5-point spread. 

Now Atlanta has the rest advantage in this one after playing last Thursday, while Baltimore had to play on Sunday.  So the Falcons got to watch Baltimore and Lamar Jackson, and their defense will know how to stop them.  Their offense will also find some holes, unlike Cincinnati or Oakland did the two previous weeks with two bad offenses.  And the Falcons have a better defense than either of those two teams, especially since they are supposed to get MLB Deion Jones back from injury.  He’ll be key in slowing down Jackson and company this week. 

Baltimore is 0-6 ATS after outgaining its previous opponent by 150 or more total yards over the past three season.  It is coming back to lose by 6.3 points per game on average in this spot.  The Ravens are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a win by 14-plus points.  The value is on Atlanta as a short home favorite this week.  Roll with the Falcons Sunday. 

20* AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on Buffalo Bills +4.5 

I won on both the Bills and Dolphins last week.  They were my two top play winners in an otherwise disappointing 2-3 Sunday.  But I’m sticking with the Bills this week and fading the Dolphins.  The Dolphins go from being 9-point underdogs to the Colts to now 4.5-point favorites against the Bills.  That’s nearly a 14-point swing from week to week, and I think it’s too much. 

I believe the Bills to be the better of these two teams.  Miami has one of the worst home-field advantages in the NFL over the past several seasons because fans simply don’t show up.  So they can’t be laying 4.5 points here.  This line should be Miami -2.5 or even -3 at the most. 

I trust the Bills more because of their defense.  They actually rank 2nd in the NFL in total defense this season.  They rank 3rd in the NFL in yards per play defense, only behind the Ravens and Bears.  And the offense got a jolt last week with Josh Allen returning at quarterback to beat the Jaguars.  When Allen or Matt Barkley have been under center, the Bills have been a great bet this season. 

Injuries are another reason I think the Bills have a huge advantage.  The Bills have stayed remarkably healthy this season as they only have four players currently on the injury report.  One is backup QB Derek Anderson, and TE Charles Clay is questionable with a hamstring.  So they basically just have two players out with season-ending injuries.  Miami already has 11 players lost to season-ending injuries.  Two of those are their best playmakers in Albert Wilson and Jakeeem Grant, and Danny Amendola is questionable. 

Having Ryan Tannehill back at quarterback helps the Dolphins, but he is lacking weapons on the outside.  And the Dolphins’ 24-27 loss to the Colts last week was misleading.  They only managed 314 total yards and gave up 455 total yards, getting outgained by 141 yards by the Colts.  Indianapolis simply kept the Dolphins in the game by committing three turnovers.  And that was a home run spot for Miami coming off their bye week.  The Bills also had a bye last week, so both teams are fresh. 

Tannehill is really going to struggle without his top playmakers against a Buffalo defense that has allowed 126, 116 and 107 passing yards in its last three games, respectively.  They are giving up just 116.3 passing yards per game over their past three games, and they’ve held six of their past seven opponents to 156 passing yards or fewer.  That’s almost unheard of in today’s NFL and it just goes to show how elite this defense really is.  They have held four of their last six opponents to 83 or fewer rushing yards as well. 

Miami is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games vs. poor offensive teams that average 4.75 or fewer yards per play.  The Dolphins are 18-46-3 ATS in their last 67 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Buffalo is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 meetings with Miami.  Bet the Bills Sunday.

20* Saints/Cowboys NFC Thursday No-Brainer on Dallas +8 

The New Orleans Saints have now covered in nine straight games.  The betting public has made a fortune off this team and they’ll continue to back them every week until they lose.  Oddsmakers haven’t been able to set their lines high enough.  And there’s no question the value is on the Dallas Cowboys this week catching more than a touchdown at home. 

I had the Falcons +13.5 against the Saints last week in a 14-point loss.  It was clearly a right side loser as the Falcons were the better team in that game but found a way to lose by 14.  They outgained the Saints by 54 yards and held them to 312 total yards, but lost the turnover battle 4-1.  And the Falcons lost three fumbles inside New Orleans’ 20-yard line that took points off the board.  It was a complete fluke. 

I like the way the Cowboys have rallied the troops and are feeling good about themselves right now.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, which includes upset road wins over the Eagles and Falcons, and a 31-23 home win over the Redskins last week.  They dominated the Redskins in that game. 

This Dallas offense has taken off since Amari Cooper came over from Oakland.  Cooper already has 22 receptions for 349 yards and three touchdowns in four games for the Cowboys.  He has opened up things for Ezekiel Elliott, who has rushed for at least 121 yards in three straight games now.  This offense has what it takes to move the chains and keep Drew Brees on the sidelines. 

Of course, it also helps that the Cowboys have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  Dallas ranks 7th in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 331.1 yards per game.  The Cowboys are even better in the all-important scoring defense (19.4) category.  Only the Ravens and Bears have been better in that department. 

Sean Payton is 2-10 ATS in road games after having won eight or more of their last 10 games as the coach of the Saints.  Dallas is 11-2 ATS after gaining 400 or more total yards in its previous game over the last three seasons.  The Cowboys are 6-0 ATS vs. poor defensive teams that allow 350 or more total yards per game over the last two seasons.  The underdog is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Cowboys Thursday.

15* Titans/Texans AFC South No-Brainer on Houston -3.5 

The Houston Texans are one of the hottest teams in the NFL.  They have reeled off seven straight victories since their 0-3 start to the season.  But they could have won any of those first three games as they were all one-score games.  And they are finally winning their share of one-score games during this seven-game winning streak. 

Now the Texans are as healthy as they’ve been all season.  They get some key players back on defense this week and will be playing just their 2nd game in 22 days because they had a bye in Week 10.  They should be primed for another big effort here on Monday Night Football to cement their place atop the AFC South standings. 

The Texans will be out for revenge from a 17-20 road loss at Tennessee in their first meeting.  Well, they dominated the Titans in that game and should have won.  They outgained Tennessee 437 to 283 for the game, or by 154 total yards.  The Titans got a 66-yard fake punt TD in that game that proved to be the difference. 

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Houston is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six home meetings with Tennessee with all six wins coming by 6 points or more and by an average of 19.7 points per game.  So based on this series history, we are getting the Texans at a pretty cheap -3.5 price here tonight. 

Tennessee is a fraudulent 5-5.  The Titans are getting outgained by nearly 40 yards per game on the season.  They are scoring just 17.8 points per game and rank 30th in total offense at 295.4 yards per game.  The Texans are a legit 7-3, outgaining teams by 34 yards per game.  They are scoring 23.9 points per game and rank 15th in total offense at 364.2 yards per game.  And they have posted better defensive numbers than the Titans as well.  The Texans rank 4th in yards per play (5.0) allowed, while the Titans are 10th in yards per play (5.5) allowed. 

Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. AFC opponents, while Tennessee is just 19-43-4 ATS in its last 66 vs. AFC foes.  The Texans are 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  Roll with the Texans Monday. 

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Dolphins +10 

The Colts are getting way too much love this week.  That’s because they have gone 4-0 SU & 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games overall coming in.  Now the betting public is on them, and it’s time to ‘sell high’ here Sunday.  They are coming off a 38-10 beat down of the Titans last week.  I had the Colts in that game, and was fortunate Marcus Mariota got hurt.  The rest was history.  But I’ll gladly fade them this week as 10-point favorites over the Dolphins. 

Indianapolis has only been favored by more than 3.5 points once this season, and that was as 7-point favorites against the Bills.  And now they have to play a motivated, rested Dolphins team that is coming off their bye week at 5-5 and looking to make a playoff push.  And the Dolphins get Ryan Tannehill back at quarterback this week, which is a big upgrade over Brock Osweiler. 

The Dolphins opened 3-0 this season before back-to-back road losses to the Patriots and Bengals.  Tannehill led them to that 3-2 start, and the Dolphins led the Bengals big before he got hurt.  Speaking of injuries, the Colts suffered a big blow when they lost center Ryan Kelly to a knee injury against the Titans last week.  Center is one of the most underrated positions in the NFL.  Kelly is their best linemen, and the Colts have a couple other key injuries along the offensive line that will make life more difficult on Andrew Luck this week. 

Plays on any team (Miami) - in a game involving two poor defensive teams that allow 23-27 PPG in the 2nd half of the season, after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games are 39-15 (72.2%) ATS since 1983.  The Colts should be closer to 3-point favorites than 10-point favorites this week.  We’ll take the value on Miami.  Bet the Dolphins Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Carolina Panthers -3 

I was on the Panthers last week as my free play, and it was probably a week early.  They lost 19-20 to the Lions after going for a 2-point conversion to win the game in the closing seconds.  To my credit, the Panthers outgained the Lions by 78 yards and probably should have won that game.  But their road struggles continued and they lost. 

But now the Panthers return home highly motivated for a victory after back-to-back road losses.  This is a place of comfort for them as the Panthers are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring the opposition by 9.8 points per game in the process.  They should get back on track at home here with a win and cover as only 3-point favorites over the Seahawks. 

This is a bad matchup for Seattle.  The Seahawks lead the league in rushing, but they are just 28th in passing offense, averaging only 196.8 passing yards per game.  The weakness of Carolina is their pass D, but the Seahawks won’t be able to exploit it.  Carolina ranks 7th in the NFL against the run, giving up just 98.5 rushing yards per game.  They have the speed at linebacker with Luke Keuchly and company to stuff the read-option that Seattle likes to run. 

Seattle is only 2-3 in true road games this season.  One of those came 20-17 at Arizona, a terrible team and arguably the worst team in the NFL this season.  The other was at Detroit the week they were coming off a bye, so they were primed for a big effort there.  This is clearly a step up in class for the Seahawks, and I expect them to fail here Sunday. 

The Panthers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss.  Carolina is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home games.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Ron Rivera is 9-1 ATS off an upset loss as a road favorite as the coach of Carolina.  Rivera is also 22-4 ATS off a road loss as the coach of the Panthers.  Roll with the Panthers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Oakland Raiders +11 

The Oakland Raiders showed last week they wouldn’t quit on the season when they went into Arizona and won 23-21 as 4.5-point underdogs.  This line of Baltimore laying 11 points Sunday indicates that the Raiders have quit, but they obviously haven’t.  I think there’s a ton of value on the Raiders catching double-digits points here this week. 

Lamar Jackson led the Ravens to a 24-21 win over the Bengals last week.  And Jackson will make another start in place of Joe Flacco.  But now the Raiders have some game film on him they can use.  And Jackson isn’t going to lead the Ravens to a ton of points simply because his style doesn’t suit it. 

Jackson only threw fate ball 19 times last week for 138 yards against the Bengals.  They rushed 54 times.  They are going to implement a similar game plan here with a run-heavy scheme.  And that will keep the clock moving and make it very predictable for the Raiders. 

It also helps out the Raiders dramatically because they rank 32nd in the league in yards per pass attempt (8.9) allowed, which is their biggest weakness.  The Raiders have at least been respectable against the run and should be able to limit the Ravens’ rushing attack this week. 

The Ravens are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  There’s no way they should be getting this much respect from oddsmakers.  They are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a favorite, and they have been favored in six consecutive games.  I’m confused at all the love for the Ravens at this point. 

Plays on underdogs of 10.5 or more points (Oakland) - off an upset win as a road underdog are 39-15 (72.2%) ATS since 1983.  Baltimore is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games after outgaining its last opponent by 100 or more yards.  The Ravens are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Raiders Sunday.