Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-16-11 | Miami Heat v. Toronto Raptors +9.5 | 103-95 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Toronto Raptors +9.5
The Miami Heat will be playing the second of a back-to-back, their 3rd game in 4 days and their 4th game in 6 days tonight. Toronto comes in on 2 days' rest, giving them the edge here tonight in what is a tough spot for the Heat. This will be their third meeting of the season, with the Heat winning by 17 and 9 points in two home meetings. Having to play at Toronto this time around will lead to a more closely contested game. The home team is 6-0 in the last six meetings in this series. The Heat are 2-7 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Toronto. This play falls into a system that is 61-30 (67%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on home underdogs (TORONTO) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 8 or more of their last 10 against opponent after having covered 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread. Because of each team's recent runs, there is clearly some line value here with the home underdog. Miami is 11-25 ATS after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. Bet the Raptors Wednesday. |
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02-15-11 | New Orleans Hornets v. Golden State Warriors OVER 202 | 89-102 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Hornets/Warriors OVER 202
This is a very low total for a Warriors home game, and I'll take full advantage. Golden State is scoring 106.2 PPG and allowing 105.2 PPG at home for an averaged combined score of 211.4 PPG. There is clearly some value here with this OVER tonight giving these stats alone. Then, when we look at recent meetings between the Hornets and Warriors it's easy to see why the OVER is as solid choice tonight. The OVER is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in this series with combined scores of 215, 213, 252, 266, 233, 210 and 214 points. That makes for 7 straight meetings that have seen 210 or more combined points. The OVER is 5-0 in Hornets last 5 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The OVER is 7-0 in Hornets last 7 vs. NBA Pacific division opponents. The OVER is 52-22 in Warriors last 74 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The OVER is 41-17 in Warriors last 58 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5. The OVER is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings. Roll with the OVER in this game Tuesday. |
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02-15-11 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Chicago Bulls -9.5 | Top | 94-106 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -9.5
I really like fading the Charlotte Bobcats in this spot tonight with so many factors working against them. The biggest factor that will have the Bobcats coming out flat is the fact that they will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days. Charlotte just beat the defending champion Los Angeles Lakers handily last night, making this easily a letdown spot for them in Chicago. The Bulls lost on January 18th to the Bobcats at home 83-82, so they will certainly have revenge in mind. Plus, Chicago comes in well-rested as they will be playing on 2 days' rest and only their 2nd game in 6 days. No question fatigue will be a factor for Charlotte, while Chicago will be able to give max effort for 48 minutes. The Bulls are 23-4 SU & 16-10 ATS at home this season, winning by 9.9 PPG. The Bobcats are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 0 days rest. Take Chicago Tuesday. |
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02-15-11 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers +6 | 110-103 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 4 m | Show | |
15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +6
The Indiana Pacers are an excellent value play tonight as they host the Miami Heat Tuesday. Indiana made a coaching change a few weeks back, and they have taken off ever since. The Pacers are 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall, with their only loss coming at the Miami Heat 112-117. In that game, the Pacers led by 7 points entering the fourth quarter before getting outscored 27-15 over the final period. These players certainly want their revenge at home tonight. This play falls into a system that is 72-38 (66%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (INDIANA) - hot team - having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season. The Pacers are 15-11 at home this season, scoring 101.2 PPG and limiting opponents to just 96.7 PPG. Indiana is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games overall. The Heat are 6-18-2 ATS in their last 26 games following a S.U. loss. Indiana comes in on 2 days' rest as well, while the Heat are off a loss at Boston and playing with 1 day of rest. Bet the Pacers Tuesday. |
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02-14-11 | Denver Nuggets v. Houston Rockets UNDER 221.5 | 102-121 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
15* NBA Monday Total ANNIHILATOR on Nuggets/Rockets UNDER 221.5
This total has been jacked up Monday and I'll take advantage with the UNDER. This will be the fourth meeting of the season between the Nuggets and Rockets, so they are obviously very familiar with each other. Familiarity normal leads to lower-scoring games and I believe that will be the case tonight. In their first three meetings this year, they combined to score 201, 219 and 211 points, respectively. In fact, ten of the last 12 meetings in this series have seen 219 or less combined points. Houston and their opponents are combining to score 205.7 PPG on average in Rockets home games. Denver and their opponents are combining to score 212.3 PPG in Nuggets road games. There is clearly value on this UNDER tonight given these averages. Denver is 19-6 to the UNDER in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points over the last 3 seasons. Houston is 8-1 to the UNDER in home games after allowing 105 points or more 2 straight games this season. The Rockets and their opponents are combining to score 199.8 PPG in this spot. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday. |
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02-14-11 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Charlotte Bobcats +5.5 | Top | 89-109 | Win | 100 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
20* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Bobcats +5.5
The Los Angeles Lakers are faced with a very tough spot tonight. This will be their 4th game in 5 days which is hard for any team to handle. It will be their second of a back-to-back as well after losing in Orlando yesterday 75-89. It's also their sixth game of a 7-game road trip and there's no question this trip will take its toll tonight. Certainly it is going to be hard for the Lakers to get motivated to play the Bobcats after their last three games came against the Celtics, Knicks and Magic which are three teams that are not hard to get up for. Charlotte has had the Lakers number here in recent years. The Bobcats are 7-2 SU in their last 9 meetings with the Lakers, and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings. That's pretty impressive considering the Lakers are two-time defending world champs. The Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Bobcats are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog. L.A. is 1-9 ATS after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread this season. Take the Bobcats Monday. |
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02-13-11 | Miami Heat v. Boston Celtics +3 | Top | 82-85 | Win | 100 | 2 h 30 m | Show |
20* Heat/Celtics NBA on ABC No-Brainer on Boston +3
I am backing the Boston Celtics to continue their dominance of the Miami Heat Sunday. The Celtics have won both meetings with Miami this season, winning 88-80 at home and 112-107 on the road. They play team defense, which is the key to stopping a team that plays so much one-on-one like the Heat do. Trailing Miami by 1/2 game in the East, the Celtics certainly want to win this one to regain the lead in the standings. Boston is a perfect 9-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season. They Celtics are winning in this spot by 17.7 PPG. Coming off back-to-back losses, they will bounce back in a big way today. They are well-rested which will help, as this will only be their 2nd game in 6 days. Boston is 23-5 at home this season. Take the Celtics Sunday. |
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02-11-11 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Cleveland Cavaliers +4.5 | 119-126 | Win | 100 | 6 h 12 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +4.5
I believe Cleveland's 26-game losing streak comes to an end tonight as they knock off the Los Angeles Clippers. The Cavs have tied the North American pro sports record for consecutive losses, and certainly will be motivated to avoid having that record all to themselves. A big reason for my optimism tonight is the return of point guard Mo Williams, who has missed 12 straight games with a hip flexor injury. He'll help get Cleveland over the top. Despite losing, the Cavs have been great against the spread of late going 6-3-2 ATS in their last 11 games. This play falls into a system that is 50-20 (71%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA CLIPPERS) - after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, in non-conference games. The Clippers should not be favored on the road against anyone. L.A. is 4-18 away from home this season, getting outscored by 7.9 PPG. The Clippers are 1-13 ATS in road games after scoring 110 points or more over the last 3 seasons, including 0-9 ATS in road games after a game where both teams scored 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons. If there's one team that would be ideal for this losing streak to come to an end against, it would be the Clippers who have been the laughing stock of the league for more than a decade. Roll with the Cavaliers Friday. |
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02-11-11 | Miami Heat v. Detroit Pistons UNDER 191 | 106-92 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 12 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Heat/Pistons UNDER 191
Looking at the first two meetings this season between the Miami Heat and Detroit Pistons, it's easy to see that there is some serious line value with this 'under' tonight. Miami won both meetings at home, topping Detroit 97-72 and 88-87 for combined point totals of 169 and 175, respectively. I don't expect the final combined score of this one to finish anywhere near the total, either. Detroit has scored 92 or less points in eight of their last 12 games overall, while the Pistons have allowed 97 or less in 10 of their last 13 contests. This play falls into a system that is 108-57 (66%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UDNER on any team (DETROIT) - off a road win against a division rival against opponent off a home win. Detroit is 27-11 to the UNDER versus excellent teams - shooting >=46% with a defense of <=43% - 2nd half of the season since 1996. The Pistons are 8-1 to the UNDER after 2 or more consecutive overs this season. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in this series. Take the UNDER in this game Friday. |
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02-11-11 | Portland Trail Blazers -3 v. Toronto Raptors | Top | 102-96 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -3
The Toronto Raptors are absolutely atrocious this season. They are getting way too much respect from odds makers tonight as a mere 3-point underdog to a superior Portland Trail Blazers team. Toronto is 14-39 on the season, including 1-15 in their last 16 games overall with their lone victory coming against the lowly Minnesota Timberwolves. This is like stealing money tonight getting the Blazers at this price. Portland is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with Toronto. That includes four straight wins over the Raptors by double-digits, so these games haven't even been close and there's no question this one is likely to result in a rout as well. The Trail Blazers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. Portland is 22-10-3 ATS in their last 35 games as a road favorite, including 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. The Blazers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. The Raptors are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. Bet Portland Friday. |
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02-10-11 | Dallas Mavericks v. Denver Nuggets -3 | 120-121 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
15* Mavs/Nuggets TNT Thursday Night BAILOUT on Denver -3
Off back-to-back losses, I fully expect the Denver Nuggets to bounce back with a win at home tonight against the Dallas Mavericks. Sure, Dallas is on a 10-game winning streak but the majority of those victories came against losing teams. Their last two wins have been unimpressive, beating Cleveland 99-96 at home followed by a 102-100 road win at Sacramento last night. Both teams played last night, with the Mavs obviously winning by two and the Nuggets losing by two at Golden State. There's no question Denver is going to be the more hungry team when they return home tonight. This play falls into a system that is 95-55 (63%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against any team (DALLAS) - after 6 or more consecutive wins, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days. This will be the 5th game in 7 days for Dallas which is a tough spot for any team. Denver is 21-7 at home this season where they are scoring 110.3 PPG. Dallas is only putting up 97.0 PPG on the road this year and cannot keep up with the Nuggets. The Nuggets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss. Denver is 10-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite. Denver is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Denver is 14-4 ATS in their last 18 meetings with Dallas. Take the Nuggets Thursday. |
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02-10-11 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Boston Celtics -2 | Top | 92-86 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
20* Lakers/Celtics NBA on TNT No-Brainer on Boston -2
Certainly the Boston Celtics want to sweep the season series with the Los Angeles Lakers after losing to them in seven games in the NBA Finals last June. Even though they already won 109-96 in L.A. earlier this year, I fully expect them to be just as hungry tonight when they host the defending champs. Boston wants to send a message that if it comes down to these two teams again, they aren't going to be denied this time. The Lakers have had a hard time against the top teams in the league. The Lakers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. This play falls into a system that is 47-18 (72%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BOSTON) - off a upset loss as a favorite, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). Both teams come in on 2 days' rest, but that clearly benefits the Celtics. Boston is 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games playing on 2 days rest, while the Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 2 days rest. The Celtics are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games following a loss. Boston is 23-4 at home this season and showing excellent value tonight. Bet the Celtics Thursday. |
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02-09-11 | Dallas Mavericks v. Sacramento Kings UNDER 196 | 102-100 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Mavs/Kings UNDER 196
The Dallas Mavericks have really picked up their effort on the defensive end of late which is a big reason why they have won nine straight games. Dallas has allowed 97 or less points in six straight contests. Sacramento has also been playing better on this end of the floor, allowing 96 or less points in five of their last seven games. This play falls into a system that is 53-21 (72%) to the UNDER since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (DALLAS) - after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 2 straight games. The Kings are 15-4 to the UNDER after having lost 3 of their last 4 games this season. The UNDER is 25-11 in Mavericks last 36 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday. |
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02-09-11 | Orlando Magic v. Philadelphia 76ers +2 | 99-95 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia 76ers +2
The Philadelphia 76ers are really coming on strong of late and they've been one of the best covering teams in the league all season. Philly is 7-2 SU in their last nine games, and 8-3 ATS in their last eleven contests. For the season, the 76ers are a prosperous 32-18 ATS. Philly has gone 16-8 SU & 15-9 ATS at home this year. Orlando should not be favored on the road tonight considering they are just 14-13 SU & 10-16 ATS away from home. This play falls into a system that is 35-10 (78%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHILADELPHIA) - after beating the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team. Orlando is playing the second of a back-to-back, their 3rd game in 4 days and their 5th game in 7 days. Betting against teams playing their 5th game in 7 days has been a very profitable move throughout the years. Philly is 11-1 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season. Roll with the 76ers Wednesday. |
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02-09-11 | Orlando Magic v. Philadelphia 76ers UNDER 197 | Top | 99-95 | Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show |
20* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Magic/76ers UNDER 197
Both the Orlando Magic and Philadelphia 76ers are playing their second of a back-to-back tonight, so each team comes in on tired legs. This will lead to a low-scoring affair in Philly Wednesday. These teams have met twice this season, with the 76ers winning 97-89 in the first meeting for 186 combined points. Their second meeting went into overtime, with the Magic winning 98-99. That game saw 180 combined points at the end of regulation. This play falls into a system that is 60-23 (72%) to the UNDER since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on any team (ORLANDO) - extremely tired team - playing their 5th game in 7 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%). Orlando is 20-8 to the UNDER versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 5-1 in 76ers last 6 home games. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday. |
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02-08-11 | Toronto Raptors v. Milwaukee Bucks -7.5 | 74-92 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -7.5
Coming off four straight losses, the Milwaukee Bucks will bounce back with a blowout victory tonight as they host the lowly Toronto Raptors. The Raptors are 1-13 in their last 14 games overall, and seven of their last nine losses have come by double-digits. The Bucks are 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with Toronto. This play falls into a system that is 49-19 (72%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home teams (MILWAUKEE) - off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, playing with 2 days rest. The Bucks are 28-12 ATS versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. Milwaukee is 24-9 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. The Bucks are 19-4 ATS against Atlantic division opponents over the last 2 seasons. Roll with Milwaukee Tuesday. |
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02-08-11 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 206 | Top | 105-101 | Push | 0 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
25* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Grizzlies/Thunder UNDER 206
The Grizzlies are a tired team as this will be their 4th game in five days and their 5th game in seven days. I don't see them putting up a big number here as they continue to struggle to score while they're tired. The Grizzlies only put up 93 points in an overtime loss to Houston on 2/5, and just 84 points against the Lakers last night. Memphis has been playing great defense, though, allowing 98 or less points in nine of their last 10 games overall. Oklahoma City has been playing in some high-scoring games here recently against terrible defensive teams, which is a big reason why this total is so jacked up. That provides us with some value on the 'under' tonight. This play falls into a system that is 38-12 (76%) to the UNDER since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better. The Grizzlies are 19-9 UNDER in all road games this season, including 11-3 UNDER in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season. The UNDER is a perfect 6-0 in Grizzlies last 6 road games. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday. |
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02-07-11 | Phoenix Suns v. Golden State Warriors -5 | Top | 104-92 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Golden State Warriors -5
I'll back the Golden State Warriors at home Monday as they host the Phoenix Suns. The Warriors are playing their best basketball of the season right now to get themselves back in the Western Conference playoff race. Golden State has won 3 straight over quality teams, beating Utah by 15, Milwaukee by 6 and Chicago by 11. The Warriors are 16-10 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 7.2 PPG. Phoenix is 9-14 on the road, giving up 109.1 PPG and getting outscored by 4.4 PPG. This play falls into a system that is 52-20 (72%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against underdog (PHOENIX) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO) vs. an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO) after 42+ games. Golden State is 20-7 ATS versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 103+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. The Suns are 4-11-2 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS loss. The Warriors are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 vs. NBA Pacific. The Warriors are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite. Golden State is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 home meetings with Phoenix. Bet the Warriors Monday. |
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02-06-11 | Orlando Magic v. Boston Celtics -4.5 | 80-91 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
15* Magic/Celtics ABC Sunday No-Brainer on Boston -4.5
Good value here with the Boston Celtics as a small home favorite over the Orlando Magic. That's especially the case since the Celtics are coming off a loss, losing 97-101 to Dallas last time out. Boston rarely loses back-to-back games, and are 4-1 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss. Better yet, the Celtics are 8-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season. This play falls into a system that is 61-26 (70%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against road underdogs (ORLANDO) - after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season. Boston is 22-12 SU & 23-10-1 ATS in all home meetings with Orlando since 1996. Take the Celtics Sunday. |
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02-06-11 | Philadelphia 76ers v. New York Knicks -4.5 | 103-117 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -4.5
This is a home and home situation, and I certainly like taking the team that lost the first game, especially when they are playing at home with revenge in mind. Philadelphia beat New York 100-98 Friday night in Philly. Now, getting the Knicks as just a small home favorite is certainly a great value play Sunday knowing that they will be looking for payback. This play falls into a system that is 51-20 (72%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on underdogs (PHILADELPHIA) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO) vs. an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO) after 42+ games. The 76ers are just 7-18 on the road this season. The Knicks are 9-1 ATS after allowing 100 points or more 4 straight games this season. Bet New York Sunday. |
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02-06-11 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Miami Heat OVER 201.5 | 79-97 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
15* NBA Sunday Total ANNIHILATOR on Clippers/Heat OVER 201.5
Both the Miami Heat and Los Angeles Clippers have been playing in high-scoring affairs of late. The OVER is 8-3 in the Clippers last 11 games overall. Los Angeles and their opponents have combined to score 201 or more points in eight of those 11 contests. The OVER is 11-3 in Miami's last 14 games overall. The Heat and their opponents have combined to score 204 or more points en route to four straight OVERS. This play falls into a system that is 29-7 (81%) OVER during the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the OVER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (LA CLIPPERS) - after a close loss by 3 points or less against opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games. Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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02-05-11 | Los Angeles Lakers v. New Orleans Hornets +4 | Top | 101-95 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
20* Lakers/Hornets NBA Saturday No-Brainer on New Orleans +4
The play falls under a system that is 58-24 (71%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to be on home teams (NEW ORLEANS) - after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). Bet the Hornets Saturday. |
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02-04-11 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Phoenix Suns UNDER 214 | Top | 111-107 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
20* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Thunder/Suns UNDER 214
The Phoenix Suns have been locking it down defensively here of late and playing in much lower-scoring games. There is some nice value with this UNDER tonight because of it. The UNDER is 5-1 in the Suns last 6 games overall. Phoenix and their opponents have combined to score 204, 200, 149, 200, 221 and 159 points over their last six games, respectively. For the season, the Suns and their opponents are combining to score an average of 209.1 PPG at home. The Thunder and their opponents are combining to average 203.1 PPG on the road this year. This really shows the 'under' value. This play falls into a system that is 91-44 (67%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season. The UNDER is 6-0 in Suns last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The UNDER is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings in Phoenix between these teams. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday. |
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02-04-11 | New York Knicks +4 v. Philadelphia 76ers | 98-100 | Win | 100 | 6 h 21 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on New York Knicks +4
The New York Knicks have been a covering machine on the road all season. They are 17-7-1 ATS in 25 road games this year and showing excellent value again tonight as a road underdog. That's especially the case since they are coming off a bad home loss to the Dallas Mavericks last time out. The Knicks are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points, and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss. This play falls into a system that is 43-16 (73%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on any team (NEW YORK) - explosive offensive team (>=102 PPG) against an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) after 42+ games, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more. The Knicks are 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 games as an underdog, including 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5. The road team is 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings between the Knicks and 76ers. Roll with the Knicks Friday. |
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02-04-11 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Toronto Raptors UNDER 215.5 | 100-111 | Win | 100 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Raptors UNDER 215.5
Once again, the total for a Minnesota Timberwolves game has been jacked up tonight and I'll take full advantage. This team played in many high-scoring affairs through the first half of the season, and it's starting to catch up to them. The betting public continues to be on the 'over' in their games, providing us with some very nice value on the 'under' here of late. The UNDER is 3-0 in Minnesota's last 3 games where they and their opponents have combined to score 208, 190 and 186 points. That 190-point effort came in a 103-87 home win over the Toronto Raptors, which is the same team they'll be playing tonight. This play falls into a system that is 31-9 (78%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (TORONTO) - after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season. Minnesota is 13-2 to the UNDER versus terrible defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=48% - 2nd half of the season since 1996. Toronto is 59-35 to the UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 210 since 1996, including 19-6 to the UNDER in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 210 over the last 3 seasons. Take the UNDER in this game Friday. |
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02-03-11 | Miami Heat v. Orlando Magic | Top | 104-100 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
20* Heat/Magic NBA on TNT No-Doubt Rout on Orlando PK
I'll take the Orlando Magic at home as a pick 'em against the Miami Heat Thursday. The home team has won both meetings this season, and I fully expect that to hold true tonight. It's going to be a tough atmosphere tonight for the Heat as Magic fans sell out the building. The Magic are 15-6 in their last 21 games overall, and coming off a loss they will be very hungry to get right back in the win column. Plus, Orlando is playing on 2 days' rest so they'll be fresh coming into this one. This play falls into a system that is 47-17 (73%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ORLANDO) - off a upset loss as a favorite, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). The Magic are 18-6 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by a whopping 11.6 PPG. Orlando is scoring 102.0 PPG and allowing 91.4 PPG on their home floor. The Heat are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 2 days rest, while the Magic are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 2 days rest. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meeting, and the Heat are just 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings in Orlando. Bet the Magic Thursday. |
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02-02-11 | Houston Rockets v. Utah Jazz UNDER 204 | 97-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/Jazz UNDER 204
Looking at Utah's injury report, it's easy to see why they have played in such low-scoring games here of late. The biggest reason is the fact that Deron Williams has been out with a wrist injury. Without him, they don't have someone who can push the tempo or get other players open looks. Williams is the heart and soul of this team, and the Jazz have been forced to put all of their focus on defense just so that they have a chance. Not only is Williams out tonight, but Mehmet okur and Andrei Kirilenko are also out. Utah is going to lost offensively. This play falls into a system that is 33-10 (77%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (HOUSTON) - after allowing 100 points or more 3 straight games against opponent after a game where both teams scored 90 points or less. Houston will be tired tonight playing the second of a back-to-back after an overtime loss to the Lakers last night. The Jazz are 3-0 to the UNDER in 3 games without Williams, including an 81-96 loss to Golden State and an 83-78 victory over Charlotte for 177 and 161 combined points, respectively. Take the UNDER Wednesday. |
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02-02-11 | Dallas Mavericks v. New York Knicks -1.5 | Top | 113-97 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -1.5
I really like the Knicks as basically a pick 'em at home Wednesday. New York owns a 13-9 record at home this season and are scoring 107.9 PPG in Madison Square Garden. Dallas struggles to score the basketball on the road this year, putting up just 95.6 PPG away from home. The Mavericks are just 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six road games. Their lone road win during this span came at New Jersey by a final of 87-86. This play falls under a system that is 51-19 (73%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against underdogs (DALLAS) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO) vs. an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO) after 42+ games. The Knicks have played their best against winning teams, going 17-6 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons. Dating back further, New York is 55-35 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. Dallas fails to cover their 7th straight on the road tonight. Bet New York Wednesday. |
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02-02-11 | Toronto Raptors +10.5 v. Atlanta Hawks | 87-100 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Toronto Raptors +10.5
The Atlanta Hawks are unreliable as a double-digit home favorite. The clear value in this game is with the road underdog in the Toronto Raptors. The Raptors are showing such great value due to their 12-game losing streak coming into this one. Certainly it's hard for the betting public to jump on teams on long losing streaks, but it's not for me as I know that these teams often show the best value. Atlanta is just 4-4 in their last 8 games overall, including home losses to Houston (106-112) and New Orleans (59-100). This play falls into a system that is 33-9 (79%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on road underdogs of 10 or more points (TORONTO) - poor foul drawing team - attempting <=24 free throws/game, terrible defensive team - shooting pct defense of >=48% on the season. Atlanta is 15-7 at home this season, but they are just 8-14 ATS and outscoring opponents by only 2.9 PPG. The Hawks are 1-9 ATS in home games after 5 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. The Hawks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 3 or more days rest. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Roll with Toronto Wednesday. |
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02-01-11 | San Antonio Spurs v. Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 190 | Top | 86-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
20* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Spurs/Blazers UNDER 190
In a battle between two of the best defensive teams in the league, I'll side with the UNDER Tuesday. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between the San Antonio Spurs and Portland Trail Blazers. Looking at the scores, I find tremendous value in this UNDER especially with all the injuries Portland is dealing with, including their leading scorer Brandon Roy still out. The Blazers and Spurs have combined to score 192 or less points in 7 straight meetings, and 189 or less in six of those seven contests. They have combined to score 189 or less in 8 of their last 10 meetings as well. This play falls into a system that is 37-9 (80%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on any team (PORTLAND) - extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team. Portland is 12-3 to the UNDER in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Spurs are 10-1 to the UNDER after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 9-1 in Spurs last 10 games following a S.U. win. San Antonio is 10-2 to the UNDER in their last 12 games overall. The UNDER is 6-1 in Trail Blazers last 7 games as a home underdog. Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday. |
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01-31-11 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Miami Heat UNDER 200.5 | 90-117 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Cavs/Heat UNDER 200.5
This will be the third meeting of the season between Cleveland and Miami, so both teams are certainly familiar with one another. After they combined for 208 points in their first meeting in Cleveland, they only combined for 196 points in their second meeting in Miami. I expect this game to be even more low scoring and finish with fewer than 200 points with ease. Both teams are playing with no rest having played Sunday, with Cleveland losing 87-103 at Orlando and Miami winning 108-103 at Oklahoma City. That means we have two tired teams which will result in a slower-paced game. This play falls into a system that is 33-8 (81%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (MIAMI) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game against opponent after allowing 100 points or more 4 straight games. Cleveland is only scoring 93.3 PPG on the road this season while Miami is allowing 93.3 PPG at home. Miami is 14-3 to the UNDER after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game over the last 3 seasons. The Heat are 9-1 to the UNDER when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. <=25%) over the last 2 seasons. Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday. |
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01-31-11 | Denver Nuggets -3 v. New Jersey Nets | Top | 99-115 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
25* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Denver Nuggets -3
I'm going to take the Denver Nuggets Monday as my strongest NBA release in non-conference play this season. Denver is clearly the superior team in this match-up, and coming off a loss to the Philadelphia 76ers they will certainly be hungry to get right back in the win column tonight. Denver is 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings with New Jersey. The Nets are down once again this season, posting a 14-34 record to this point. This play falls under a system that is 28-5 (85%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road favorites (DENVER) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team. The Nets are 6-20 ATS versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. New Jersey is 6-18 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 200 over the last 2 seasons. The Nets simply cannot keep up with this high-powered Nuggets team tonight. Bet Denver Monday. |
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01-30-11 | New Orleans Hornets v. Phoenix Suns -1 | 102-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Phoenix Suns -1
While Phoenix had Saturday off, New Orleans did not. The Hornets lost a 96-102 showdown with the Sacramento Kings which put an abrupt end to their 10-game winning streak. Phoenix is obviously the fresher team and the Hornets will likely also suffer an emotional letdown after their long winning streak was snapped. This has been a very streaky New Orleans team all season. Phoenix comes in with a ton of confidence after beating Boston 88-71 last time out which put an end to their 3-game losing streak. Before that skid, the Suns had won 5 straight so they have been streaky as well. This play falls under a system that is 34-10 (77%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHOENIX) - after beating the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team. The Suns are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Hornets overall and New Orleans has not win in Phoenix since 2008. The Hornets are 1-9 ATS after having won 4 of their last 5 games over the last 2 seasons. Bet Phoenix Sunday. |
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01-30-11 | Denver Nuggets v. Philadelphia 76ers UNDER 208.5 | Top | 99-110 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
20* NBA Sunday Total ANNIHILATOR on Nuggets/76ers UNDER 208.5
I'll take the UNDER in this game Sunday between the Denver Nuggets and Philadelphia 76ers. Philly has been playing in low-scoring games all season, and they will control the tempo considering they are playing at home. The 76ers know they can't afford to get in a track meet with the Nuggets, so there's no question their stategy coming in is to make this a half-court game. The 76ers are scoring 98.9 PPG at home this season while allowing 93.3 PPG at home for an average combined score of 192.2 PPG. This play falls into a system that is 34-8 (81%) to the UNDER during the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (DENVER) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season. The Nuggets are 30-15 to the UNDER versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game over the last 2 seasons. Denver is 22-9 UNDER in a road game where the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last 2 seasons. The Nuggets are 16-4 UNDER after a combined score of 205 points or more 4 straight games over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 34-16-1 in 76ers last 51 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5. Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday. |
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01-29-11 | Charlotte Bobcats +6 v. Los Angeles Clippers | 88-103 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Bobcats +6
The Charlotte Bobcats are simply a covering machine here of late. With a thrilling comeback win in their last contest, the Charlotte Bobcats have opened a season-high six-game road trip with three straight victories. Charlotte is 9-4 SU & 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall. This play falls under a system that is 58-22 (72%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on road teams (CHARLOTTE) - average defensive team (92-98 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 205 points or more 2 straight games. Roll with the Bobcats Saturday. |
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01-29-11 | New Orleans Hornets v. Sacramento Kings OVER 187 | 96-102 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Hornets/Kings OVER 187
This total has been set far too low tonight, and I'll gladly take advantage. Seven of the last nine meetings in this series between Sacramento and New Orleans have seen 189 or more combined points. This play falls into a system that is 50-19 (73%) to the OVER since 1996. It tells us to bet the OVER on home teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (SACRAMENTO) - double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent, off a road win against a division rival. Take the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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01-29-11 | Indiana Pacers v. Chicago Bulls -8 | 89-110 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -8
The Bulls are a superb 22-4 at home this season. Chicago is scoring 98.9 PPG and allowing 89.4 PPG while outscoring opponents by 9.5 PPG at home this year. Indiana is just 6-15 on theroad this season and getting outscored by 6.0 PPG. The Bulls have won their last two meetings with Indiana by 19 and 13 points home and away, respectively. This play falls under a system that is 99-50 (66%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (INDIANA) - revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off a home win by 10 points or more. Bet Chicago Saturday. |
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01-28-11 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Utah Jazz -7 | Top | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -7
Trying to put an end to a 6-game losing streak, the Utah Jazz will come out very hungry on their home floor Friday night to put a stop to this skid in blowout fashion. Their schedule has been tough, with five road losses and a home loss to the league's top team in the San Antonio Spurs during this stretch. It gets a lot easier tonight when the lowly Minnesota Timberwolves make a visit to Salt Lake City. Minnesota is just 10-35 on the season. the Timberwolves have been atrocious on the road, going 2-21 while getting outscored by 11.7 PPG. This play falls under a system that is 38-12 (76%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against road teams (MINNESOTA) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, off a home cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog. The Jazz are 10-1 ATS in home games after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points over the last 3 seasons. Utah is 27-12 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 2 seasons. The Jazz are 55-34 ATS in home games off a home loss since 1996. The Timberwolves are 9-19 ATS in their last 28 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Roll with the Jazz Friday. |
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01-28-11 | Washington Wizards v. Oklahoma City Thunder OVER 211 | 117-124 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Wizards/Thunder OVER 211
Oklahoma City should put up a big number tonight to help the final combined score of this contest go OVER the number. The Thunder are scoring a whopping 106.8 PPG at home this season. They'll be up against a Washington Wizards team that is allowing a ridiculous 108.7 PPG on the road. The Thunder have topped 100 points in nine of their last 13 games overall, and are coming off a 118-117 victory over Minnesota last time out. The Wizards have played in back-to-back shootouts, losing 106-115 at New York and 109-120 to Denver. This play falls into a system that is 40-14 (74%) to the OVER since 1996. It tells us to bet the OVER on any team (WASHINGTON) - an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (>=102 PPG) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 225 points or more. The Thunder are 16-6 to the OVER when playing against a team with a losing record this season. Oklahoma City is also 16-6 to the OVER in all home games this season. The Thunder are 23-9 OVER as a favorite this season. The OVER is 14-3 in Thunder last 17 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The OVER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings. Take the OVER in this game Friday. |
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01-28-11 | Denver Nuggets v. Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 215.5 | Top | 117-103 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
25* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Nuggets/Cavs UNDER 215.5
Odds makers have set the bar far too high in this game between the Denver Nuggets and Cleveland Cavaliers Friday night. In 20 road games this season, Denver and their opponents are combining to score 210.4 PPG on average. Certainly that is a high number, but it's still five points short of the total tonight. By taking a look at Cleveland's numbers, you'll see why there is serious value in the UNDER. In 19 home games, the Cavaliers and their opponents are combining to score 193.5 PPG on average. Cleveland scored 93.3 PPG and allows 100.2 PPG at home this year. This plays falls into a system that is 25-3 (89%) to the UNDER since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (CLEVELAND) - after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games. Denver is 16-4 to the UNDER in road games after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The Nuggets are 15-3 to the UNDER in road games after a combined score of 205 points or more 3 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday. |
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01-27-11 | Boston Celtics v. Portland Trail Blazers +5 | Top | 88-78 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
20* Celtics/Blazers NBA on TNT Thursday BAILOUT on Portland +5
I'll take the value Thursday with the home underdog Portland Trail Blazers. This team has had one of the best home-court advantages in the league over the last few seasons. The Rose Garden will be rowdy tonight when the Boston Celtics visit Portland. The Blazers are 16-6 SU & 12-9-1 ATS at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by 5.2 PPG. There's no way they should be an underdog tonight let alone receiving 5 full points against a Boston team that is only 12-7 on the road. Portland suffered arguably their worst loss of the season last time out with an 81-96 setback at home against Sacramento. Playing with 2 days' rest and hungry to make amends for that effort, the Blazers will come to play tonight. This play falls under a system that is 49-18 (73%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home teams (PORTLAND) - off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, playing with 2 days rest. Numerous teams in this situation have bounced back, and Portland will as well. Conversely, the Celtics are just 1-9 ATS after a blowout win by 15 points or more this season. The Blazers are 33-15 ATS in their last 48 games as a home underdog. The Celtics are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win. Roll with the Blazers Thursday. |
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01-27-11 | Miami Heat v. New York Knicks UNDER 212 | 88-93 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
15* Heat/Knicks TNT Thursday Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 212
Looking at recent meetings between these teams, it's easy to see that this total has clearly been inflated tonight. New York and Miami have not combined to top 212 points in any of their last five meetings. Those five games saw combined point totals of 204, 204, 209, 180 and 208 points. I fully expect this to be a hotly contested, defensive battle tonight in Madison Square Garden. This play falls into a system that is 33-8 (81%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (MIAMI) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game against opponent after allowing 100 points or more 4 straight games. The UNDER is 8-1-1 in Knicks last 10 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 7-1 in Knicks last 8 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Take the UNDER in this game Thursday. |
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01-26-11 | San Antonio Spurs -3 v. Utah Jazz | Top | 112-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
20* Spurs/Jazz NBA on ESPN No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio -3
I'll fade the struggling Utah Jazz who will be playing the second of a back-to-back after getting crushed by the Los Angeles Lakers 91-120 last night. Utah is now 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall and they have rarely been competitive. Their five losses came by 7, 8, 24, 11 and 29 points. Utah is now 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games and it's clear that this team misses Carlos Boozer. They just haven't been the same without him. This play falls under a system that is 28-5 (85%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on any team (SAN ANTONIO) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, after 3 straight games - attempting 10+ more free throws than opponent. The Spurs continue playing great basketball, winning 9 of their last 10 games overall. San Antonio owns the league's best record at 38-7. The Spurs are 7-0 ATS versus good passing teams, averaging >=23 assists/game this season. Bet San Antonio Wednesday. |
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01-26-11 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Minnesota Timberwolves OVER 220 | 118-117 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Thunder/Timberwolves OVER 220
The Minnesota Timberwolves simply play no defense, but they can score the basketball with just about anybody. That was evident in their 125-129 home loss to the Houston Rockets last time out. Minnesota has given up 107 or more points in seven of their last nine games overall, and they allow 108.9 PPG this season. The Oklahoma City Thunder are scoring at will here of late, putting up 101 or more points in five of their last seven games. They aren't defending very well though, allowing 101 or more in five of their last seven as well. This play falls into a system that is 36-12 (75%) to the OVER through the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the OVER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after a close loss by 3 points or less against opponent after scoring 105 points or more 2 straight games. OKC is 15-6 to the OVER when playing against a team with a losing record this season. The Thunder are 15-4 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. Minnesota is fresh and well-rested, and the Timberwolves are 22-7 OVER in home games when playing only their 2nd game in 7 days since 1996. The OVER is 12-1 (92%) in Timberwolves last 13 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday. |
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01-26-11 | Denver Nuggets -2 v. Detroit Pistons | 109-100 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday ATS ANNIHILATOR on enver Nuggets -2
The Denver Nuggets are playing much better of late now that the trade talks have stopped with Carmelo Anthony and the New Jersey Nets. The Nuggets are 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall, with their only losses coming against the team with the best record in the NBA in the San Antonio Spurs and the defending champion Los Angeles Lakers. Detroit is just 17-28 this season and is getting way too much respect from odds makers here tonight. This play falls under a system that is 37-12 (76%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against any team (DETROIT) - off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog against opponent after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite. Off such a huge win at Orlando, the Pistons are certainly in a letdown spot tonight. This is also a tired Detroit team, and the Pistons are 9-19 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the last 2 seasons. The Nuggets are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. Roll with Denver Wednesday. |
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01-26-11 | Memphis Grizzlies -3.5 v. New Jersey Nets | 88-93 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 19 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday No-Brainer on Memphis Grizzlies -3.5
This is an absolute mismatch and I'm finding solid value in the Memphis Grizzlies as a small road favorite tonight in New Jersey. The Nets are just 4-12 in their last 16 games overall and really don't stand much of a chance Wednesday against this improved Memphis Grizzlies squad. The Grizzlies have reeled off three straight victories, including back-to-back road wins. This team sits at 21-22 right now and will certainly be fighting hard to try and get back to .500 for the season. The Nets are 13-32 on the year. This play falls under a system that is 32-8 (80%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NEW JERSEY) - in non-conference games, off a close home win by 3 points or less. New Jersey needed a buzzer-beater last time out to beat the Cleveland Cavaliers, who have lost 18 straight. The Grizzlies are 19-6 ATS versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game this season. Memphis is 9-1 ATS after playing 2 consecutive road games this season. Take the Grizzlies Wednesday. |
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01-25-11 | Cleveland Cavaliers +17 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 95-112 | Push | 0 | 6 h 9 m | Show |
20* NBA Tuesday ATS ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland Cavaliers +17
I am well aware of Cleveland's losing streak. The Cavaliers have dropped 17 straight games and 27 of their last 28 overall. But with these losing streaks comes serious value, and getting 17 points is simply too much to pass up tonight. Cleveland fought hard last night in a 101-103 loss at New Jersey, losing in the final seconds. They'll give Boston a run for their money tonight as they are finally starting to get healthier and can put a competitive team on the court now. Boston remains without three post players in Shaq, Jermaine O'Neal and Kendrick Perkins so they have injury issues of their own. This play falls under a system that is 35-11 (76%) since 1996. It tells us to bet against favorites of 10 or more points (BOSTON) - a very good team (>=+7 PPG differential) against a terrible team (<=-7 PPG differential), after allowing 85 points or less. Boston is 6-20 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points over the last 2 seasons. The Celtics are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games as a home favorite of 11.0 or greater. Come capitalize on this tremendous value play tonight. Bet Cleveland Tuesday. |
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01-24-11 | San Antonio Spurs -5 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 113-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
20* Spurs/Warriors NBA Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on San Antonio -5
The San Antonio Spurs are coming off their single worst loss of the season. The Spurs lost at New Orleans Saturday 72-96 and shot a woeful 36.2% from the floor. Coming off such a brutal defeat, there's no question that San Antonio will be hungry when they hit the floor Monday at Golden State. This has been a very resilient team throughout the last decade under head coach Greg Popovich. The Spurs are 43-25 ATS off an upset loss by 10 points or more under Popovich. This play falls under a system that is 36-10 (78%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against any team (GOLDEN STATE) - off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog against opponent off an upset loss of 10 points or more as a road favorite. The Spurs have enjoyed plenty of success offensively against Golden State, averaging 115.4 points on 51.5-percent shooting during their winning streak in the series, which reached 10 after a 118-98 road victory Nov. 30 and a 111-94 home win Dec. 8. The Warriors are allowing 106.5 points per game on the season - third-most in the league. The Spurs are 10-0 SU & 8-1-1 ATS during this 10-game winning streak over the Warriors, and they've covered each of their last 6 meetings with all six wins by 12 points or more. Bet the Spurs Monday. |
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01-24-11 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Chicago Bulls OVER 178 | 83-92 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 39 m | Show | |
15* NBA Monday Total ANNIHILATOR on Bucks/Bulls OVER 178
This is one of the smallest totals I've seen all season and there's no question that the value in this game goes with the OVER. Simply looking at averages alone, you can see why there's value here. Chicago is scoring 98.0 PPG and allowing 92.3 PPG for an average combined score of 190.3 PPG. Milwaukee is scoring 91.5 PPG and allowing 94.5 PPG on the road this season for an average of 186.0 PPG. All these teams have to do tonight is play to their season averages and this game will have gone well over the total. This play falls under a system that is 46-12 (79%) to the OVER since 1996. It tells us to bet the OVER on all teams where the total is between 170 and 179.5 points (CHICAGO) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (92-98 PPG), after allowing 85 points or less. Chicago is 40-19 to the OVER in their last 59 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Bulls are 15-4 to the OVER in home games after playing 3 consecutive games as favorite over the last 3 seasons. The OVER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Chicago. Roll with the OVER in this game Monday. |
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01-24-11 | Washington Wizards v. New York Knicks UNDER 211 | 106-115 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 9 m | Show | |
15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Knicks UNDER 211
Not surprisingly, another New York Knicks game has an inflated total and I'll gladly take full advantage by backing the UNDER tonight. The UNDER is 7-2 in the Knicks last 9 games overall and six of those games saw less than 200 combined points. The UNDER is 5-1 in Washington's last 6 games overall with combined scores of 209 or less points in all six games. Washington is scoring just 96.3 PPG this season and allowing 102.1 PPG for an average combined score of 198.4 PPG. This play falls into a system that is 48-14 (77%) to the UNDER since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (NEW YORK) - after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season. Washington is 8-1 to the UNDER versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 103+ points/game this season. The Wizards are 32-14 to the UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 200 over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 37-16 in Wizards last 53 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. The UNDER is 7-0 in Knicks last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Take the UNDER in this game Monday. |
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01-23-11 | Indiana Pacers +9.5 v. Denver Nuggets | 107-121 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
15* Pacers/Nuggets NBA Sunday No-Brainer on Indiana +9.5
Indiana is showing some of their best value of the season Sunday when they travel to face the Denver Nuggets. Denver could not stop Indiana in their last matchup. The Nuggets struggled mightily in its 144-113 loss at Indiana on Nov. 9, especially in the second half. The Nuggets allowed 54 points in the third quarter - when the Pacers made 20 consecutive shots - and 85 points in the second half. Denver dropped their last home game with a 107-97 loss Friday night against the Los Angeles Lakers, who shot 53.4 percent from the floor - the highest mark by a Nuggets opponent at home. The distractions surrounding the Carmelo Anthony trade talks are certainly taking their toll on this team. This play falls under a system that is 51-21 (71%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on nderdogs (INDIANA) - off 3 or more consecutive road losses, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season. After losing four straight and seven of nine since the new year, the Pacers are very hungry for a victory tonight. Indiana even led by 16 points at Portland last night before eventually falling 97-92. The Pacers want to close out their 4-game road trip with a victory after losing the first three games of this trip all by 7 points or less. The Pacers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5. The Nuggets are 6-18-2 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Bet Indiana Sunday. |
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01-22-11 | New York Knicks v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 222 | 98-101 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
15* NBA Saturday Total ANNIHILATOR on Knicks/Thunder UNDER 222
Once again, odds makers have jacked up another New York Knicks total. New York can certainly put up points, but the clear value in this game is with the UNDER. The Knicks and their opponents are averaging 213.2 PPG on the season, while the Thunder and their opponents are averaging 106.1 PPG this year. As you can see, there's clearly value with this UNDER Saturday. These teams already played once this season, with the Knicks winning 112-98 at home with 210 combined points. A similar combined total is the likely result tonight. This play falls under a system that is 47-14 (77%) to the UNDER since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (NEW YORK) - after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season. The Knicks are 23-8 to the UNDER versus poor 3 point shooting teams - making <=33% of their attempts over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 6-2 in New York's last 8 games overall. The UNDER is 6-0 in Knicks last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday. |
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01-21-11 | Houston Rockets v. Memphis Grizzlies OVER 204.5 | 110-115 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Rockets/Grizzlies OVER 204.5
Get ready for a shootout tonight in Memphis between the Rockets and Grizzlies. Just looking at the numbers Houston is putting up this season, it's easy to see why there's some value on this OVER. The Rockets are scoring 104.9 PPG and allowing 104.2 PPG overall. On the road, Houston is scoring 104.4 PPG and allowing 107.0 PPG for an average combined score of 211.4 PPG. Memphis puts up 101.6 PPG at home this year where they shoot nearly 48% from the floor. This play falls under a system that is 43-15 (74%) to the OVER during the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the OVER on road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (HOUSTON) - after going under the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games, vs. division opponents. The OVER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Memphis between these teams. The OVER is 4-1 in Rockets last 5 games as an underdog. The OVER is 4-1 in Grizzlies last 5 vs. Western Conference. Roll with the OVER in this game Friday. |
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01-21-11 | Phoenix Suns v. Washington Wizards UNDER 213.5 | 109-91 | Win | 100 | 6 h 31 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Suns/Wizards UNDER 213.5
Once again, a Phoenix Suns game has an inflated total. Phoenix has scored 98 or less points in five of their last ten games overall. The Suns have also allowed 100 or fewer points in five of their last ten. Washington is scoring 96.7 PPG and allowing 102.4 PPG for an average combined score of 199.1 PPG. The UNDER is 14-6 in the Wizards 20 home games this season, where they are scoring 99.3 PPG and allowing 96.4 PPG for an average of 195.7 PPG. This play falls under a system that is 94-45 (68%) to the UNDER since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (WASHINGTON) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off a road loss. The UNDER is 22-5 in Wizards last 27 games as a home underdog. The UNDER is 15-4 in the Wizards last 19 games overall. The UNDER is 11-1 in Wizards last 12 games when playing on 1 days' rest. The UNDER is 4-0 in Suns last 4 games as a road favorite. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Take the UNDER in this game Friday. |
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01-21-11 | Toronto Raptors +12 v. Orlando Magic | Top | 72-112 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
20* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Toronto Raptors +12
I'm taking the Toronto Raptors plus the points Friday against the Orlando Magic as my featured top play. Orlando is just 2-3 in their last five games overall, with their wins coming by 9 points over Minnesota and in overtime by 1 point over Philadelphia. The Magic have not won any of their last six games by more than 10 points. Yes, Toronto is on a 5-game losing streak, but they have all be close losses and mostly on the road. Each of those five losses came by 9 points or less, and the Raptors haven't been beaten by more than 9 points in any of their last six games. This play falls under a system that is 33-7 (83%) since 1996. It tells us to bet on road underdogs of 10 or more points (TORONTO) - poor foul drawing team - attempting <=24 free throws/game, terrible defensive team - shooting pct defense of >=48% on the season. The Raptors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. Toronto is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 11.0 or greater. The Raptors are 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Magic are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 11.0 or greater. Bet Toronto Friday. |
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01-20-11 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Portland Trail Blazers -3.5 | Top | 93-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
25* NBA on TNT GAME OF THE MONTH on Portland Trail Blazers -3.5
I am certainly aware that the Los Angeles Clippers are playing well right now, but that's a big reason why they are overvalued here tonight. The Clippers have done most of their damage at home over the last few weeks, and are clearly getting too much respect from odds makers on the road tonight. Los Angeles is 3-12 on the road this season where they are getting outscored by 7.3 PPG. They are up against a Portland Trail Blazers team that is getting no respect from the books. The betting public is staying away from Portland due to their injuries, but the Blazers continue to find a way to get it done. Portland is 14-5 at home this season where they have one of the best home-court advantage in the NBA at the Rose Garden. The Blazers have reeled off three straight victories heading into this contest, and look to continue their dominance over Los Angeles. The Blazers are 8-1 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last 9 meetings with Los Angeles, including 4 straight victories in this series by 9, 10, 8 and 22 points. Portland is 22-5 in all home meetings with the Clippers dating back to 1996. The Clippers are 0-9 ATS in road games after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points over the last 3 seasons. Los Angeles is 1-11 ATS in road games after scoring 110 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Take this combined 20-1 ATS System straight to the bank tonight. Bet the Blazers Thursday. |
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01-19-11 | Portland Trail Blazers -1.5 v. Sacramento Kings | Top | 94-90 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -1.5
The Portland Trail Blazers are simply a class above the Sacramento Kings. It has shown over the last few seasons when they get together, and I don't expect the Blazers to be falling to the lowly Kings tonight, either. Portland is 7-0 in their last 7 meetings with Sacramento, winning six times by 7 points or more. Sacramento doesn't even have double-digit wins yet this season as they are just 9-30. This play falls under a system that is 27-5 (84%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road favorites (PORTLAND) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team. The Kings are 9-24 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. Sacramento is 7-26-1 ATS in their last 34 games as a home underdog of 0.5-4.5. Take the Blazers Wednesday. |
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01-19-11 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Denver Nuggets UNDER 219 | 107-112 | Push | 0 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Thunder/Nuggets UNDER 219
This total has been set way too high tonight. In the last five meetings between the Oklahoma City and Denver Nuggets, I see that they have finished with combined point totals of 195, 185, 209, 192 and 220 points. As you can see, these teams have played in a bunch of defensive battles here of late when getting together. Just looking at their season averages shows that there is some value with this UNDER. OKC is scoring 100.2 PPG and allowing 101.6 PPG on the road for an average combined score of 201.8 PPG. Denver is scoring 110.9 PPG and allowing 101.9 PPG at home for an average of 212.8 PPG. Denver is 12-3 to the UNDER when revenging a loss vs. opponent this season. The Nuggets are 14-4 to the UNDER after a combined score of 205 points or more 4 straight games over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is a perfect 7-0 in Thunder last 7 games as a road underdog. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday. |
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01-18-11 | Charlotte Bobcats +8 v. Chicago Bulls | Top | 83-82 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
20* NBA Tuesday No-Brainer on Charlotte Bobcats +8
The Charlotte Bobcats are playing their best basketball of the season. Sure, they've lost three straight games, but those losses came by just 5 at Boston, by 7 vs. New Orleans and by 4 at Philly in overtime. After three straight close losses, they'll be very motivated to get back in the win column tonight in Chicago. The Bobcats are a very profitable 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall. They beat the Bulls 96-91 at home on 1/12 less than a week ago and will give Chicago a run for their money on the road this time around. The Bulls are playing without Carlos Boozer. Chicago got through their game with Memphis just fine yesterday, but they simply aren't the same team without Boozer in the line-up and it will be hard for them to string together back-to-back solid performances with him watching from the sidelines tonight. Charlotte is 6-3 ATS in their last 9 meetings with Chicago, winning five of those games outright. Their largest margin of defeat to the Bulls in those 9 meetings was by only nine points. The Bobcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. This team is showing excellent value tonight. Bet Charlotte Tuesday. |
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01-17-11 | Orlando Magic v. Boston Celtics -3 | Top | 106-109 | Push | 0 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
20* Magic/Celtics NBA on TNT No-Doubt Rout on Boston -3
Boston continues to play solid basketball this season despite a long list of injuries. Now, they are expected to get Kevin Garnett back in the line-up tonight when the Celtics host the Orlando Magic Monday. Boston is 30-9 on the season, including 18-3 at home where they are outscoring opponents by 7.9 PPG. The Celtics will be looking for revenge against the Magic, a team that put an end to their 14-game winning streak on December 25 with an 86-78 home victory. Rajon Rondo sat out that game, and the Celtics had a season-low 15 assists as a result. Orlando has cooled off recently, losing two of their last three. There is clearly some great value with the Celtics as only 3-point home favorites tonight considering they have only lost three home games all season. The Magic are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5. Boston also comes in well-rested, and are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 2 days rest. Orlando is 5-17 ATS in road games after playing 2 consecutive games as a road favorite since 1996. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Bet the Celtics Monday. |
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01-17-11 | Indiana Pacers +4 v. Los Angeles Clippers | 107-114 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 22 m | Show | |
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +4
Indiana catches the Los Angeles Clippers in a huge letdown spot here. The Clippers are coming off a big win over their crosstown rivals in the L.A. Lakers Sunday, a game in which they erased a 12-point third quarter deficit to come back and steal a victory. There's no way this team will be able to get up for the Pacers tonight. While the Clippers will be playing the second of a back-to-back, the Pacers come in well-rested on 2 days' rest. Indiana beat Los Angeles 107-80 in their first meeting of the season. This play falls under a system that is 116-61 (66%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against any team (LA CLIPPERS) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days. The Clippers are 14-27 ATS revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more over the last 3 seasons. The Pacers are 6-1-2 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Los Angeles is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5. The Clippers are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 vs. Eastern Conference. Roll with the Pacers Monday. |
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01-16-11 | Denver Nuggets v. San Antonio Spurs -7 | 97-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
15* Nuggets/Spurs NBA Sunday Night BAILOUT on San Antonio -7
I'm rolling with the San Antonio Spurs tonight as they catch Denver in the second of a back-to-back situation. The Spurs come in the fresher squad, and they've been the best team in the league all season. San Antonio is 34-6 on the season and outscoring opponents by 7.8 PPG. At home, the Spurs are an impressive 21-2 while scoring 105.5 PPG and allowing 94.7 PPG. The Nuggets are just 5-12 on the road this season and 7-10 ATS. Denver is allowing a ridiculous 106.7 PPG away from home. The Spurs are 23-9 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. San Antonio is a perfect 10-0 ATS after 2 or more consecutive unders this season. Denver is 12-23 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 2 seasons. The Nuggets are 16-41 ATS in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game since 1996. San Antonio is 9-1 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season. The Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 0 days rest. The Spurs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Take San Antonio Sunday. |
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01-15-11 | Orlando Magic -7 v. Minnesota Timberwolves | 108-99 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
15* NBA Saturday Bounce-Back BLOWOUT on Orlando Magic -7
The Orlando Magic recently went on a 9-game winning streak, but followed that up with back-to-back tough road losses. They were beaten 92-89 in overtime by the New Orleans Hornets, and 124-125 by the Oklahoma City Thunder in another nailbiter. I expect Orlando to come into this game very hungery and dominate the lowly Minnsota Timberwolves tonight. Minnesota is just 10-30 on the season, and they will likely be without Michael Beasley once again as he deals with an ankle injury. This play falls under a system that is 23-3 (89%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against underdogs (MINNESOTA) - average shooting team (43.5-45.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%), in a game involving two good rebounding teams (+3 to +5.5 reb/game). Orlando is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with Minnesota, winning by 42, 9, 12, 24 and 11 points, respectively. So as you can see, they have won five straight meetings with the Timberwolves all by at least 9 points. Roll with the Magic Saturday. |
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01-14-11 | Dallas Mavericks v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 192.5 | Top | 89-101 | Win | 100 | 7 h 60 m | Show |
20* Mavs/Spurs ESPN Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 192.5
I expect a highly competitive defensive battle tonight in San Antonio when the Dallas Mavericks visit the Spurs. For starters, the Mavericks are playing without their top scorer in Dirk Nowitzki (24.1 PPG) and their third-leading scorer in Caron Butler (15.0 PPG). The Mavericks are really struggling to find offense without these two, and have scored just 91.9 PPG over their past eight games. Defensively they are playing well, allowing 99 or less points in 11 of their last 13 games overall. The Mavs know that for them to have any chance tonight, they must put their best foot forward defensively. The UNDER is 4-0 in San Antonio's last 4 games. The Spurs haven't exactly been an offensive juggernaut either, scoring 95.5 PPG over thier past four contests. Defensively, the Spurs have stepped up their game by allowing just 89.5 PPG during this same stretch. San Antonio has given up 96 or less points in 8 of their last 10 games overall. The UNDER is 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings in this series. The Mavs and Spurs have combined to score 192 or less points in seven of those nine meetings, and the two games that saw more were 194 and 197-point outputs. Bet the UNDER Friday. |
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01-14-11 | Chicago Bulls v. Indiana Pacers +1.5 | 99-86 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 60 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +1.5
The Indiana Pacers have put together back-to-back wins against quality opponents. The knocked off the Philadelphia 76ers on the road 111-103, and returned home to beat the Dallas Mavericks 102-89. This team is much-improved this season and owns a winning home record where the Pacers are scoring 100.0 PPG and allowing 95.9 PPG, outscoring opponents at home by 4.1 PPG. The Chicago Bulls have not played well on the road, going 8-10 overall. Chicago has lost three straight road games to teams with losing records in the Nets, 76ers and Bobcats. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between the Bulls and Pacers. The home team has won 8 of the last 9 meetings overall, which certainly shows that the Pacers should not be a home underdog in this contest. The Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games. Indiana is 8-2-2 ATS in their last 12 vs. NBA Central division opponents. The Pacers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Chicago won the first meeting at home this season, but the Pacers are 76-42 ATS revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points since 1996. Take Indiana Friday. |
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01-13-11 | Miami Heat v. Denver Nuggets +2.5 | Top | 102-130 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
20* Heat/Nuggets NBA on TNT No-Brainer on Denver +2.5
The Denver Nuggets have been one of the best home teams in the league all season. They are certainly relishing this opportunity to face the Miami Heat tonight. "I think everybody's been waiting for this game and had it circled," point guard Ty Lawson told the Nuggets' official website. "We're ready for this game." Lebron James may not play tonight after spraining his ankle in Miami's 111-105 road loss at the Los Angeles Clippers last night. "There's no damage, I got an X-ray after the game," said James, who finished with 27 points. "The doctor told me it's day-to-day so I'll see how I feel Thursday. I don't have to be a hero in the regular season if I'm not close to 100 percent." James is listed as questionable tonight. Whether or not James goes, I still like Denver's chances of winning here tonight. The Nuggets are 16-4 at home this season, scoring a league-best 109.1 PPG while outscoring opponents by 7.1 PPG. This is a very tough spot for the Heat playing their second of a back-to-back after a hard-fought loss against the Clippers Wednesday. The Heat are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a S.U. loss. The Nuggets are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog. The Home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Miami is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 meetings with Denver. The Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home meetings in this series. Roll with Denver Thursday. |
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01-12-11 | Los Angeles Lakers -5.5 v. Golden State Warriors | 115-110 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
15* Lakers/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5.5
The Los Angeles Lakers are starting to round into form since Andrew Bynum has returned. They are looking like the defending NBA champs after coasting through the first couple months of the season. The Lakers are 7-1 in their last 8 games overall with their last two wins coming by 22 against the Knicks and 55 against the Cavaliers. Golden State is no match for the Lakers, and that has been proven time and time against over the last few years. The Lakers are 11-0 in their last 11 meetings with the Warriors dating back to 2008. They have won nine of those eleven contests by 6 points or more. These teams have met twice already this season, with the Lakers coming out on top 107-83 on 10/31 and 117-89 on 11/21 for 24 and 28-point victories, respectively. With the way they are playing right now and having Andrew Bynum at full strength, they Lakers will run this winning streak to 12 games and win this one by 6 or more once again. The Lakers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite. Take Los Angeles Wednesday. |
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01-12-11 | Orlando Magic -3.5 v. New Orleans Hornets | Top | 89-92 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -3.5
The Orlando Magic are one of the hottest teams in the league right now. Orlando looks for a franchise-record 10th straight win Wednesday night when it visits the New Orleans Hornets. The Magic fell to a disappointing 16-12 on Dec. 21 after a loss to Dallas, just days after acquiring Hedo Turkoglu, Jason Richardson and Gilbert Arenas in two separate trades in hopes of turning the team around. It didn't take long. Each of those newcomers were among seven Orlando players to score in double figures Saturday, and Turkoglu set a career high with 17 assists in a 117-107 road win over the Mavericks. Orlando (25-12) tied a team record with its ninth consecutive victory, also achieved in 1994 and 2001. Not only are the Magic 9-0 in their last nine games, they are also a superb 8-1 ATS. Orlando has won by an average of 13.9 points during the win streak, scoring 110 or more six times. They have won each game by 8 or more points. Getting them as a small favorite here is another gift that I'll gladly take advantage of. New Orleans is just 11-15 in their last 26 games overall after a fast start to the season. The Hornets are 1-8 ATS after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season. You can chalk up a 10th straight win for Orlando and likely by 8 points or more once again. Roll with the Magic Wednesday. |
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01-11-11 | Cleveland Cavaliers +15 v. Los Angeles Lakers | 57-112 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
15* Cavs/Lakers NBA Tuesday BAILOUT on Cleveland Cavaliers +15
The Cleveland Cavaliers are showing perhaps their best value of the entire season Tuesday when they travel to face the Los Angeles Lakers. There's no denying that it has been a disappointing season thus far for Cleveland to say the least, but they will have no problem getting up to face the defending champion Lakers. After winning 6 of their last 7 overall, the Lakers are once again overvalued and now is the time to fade them. Due to Cleveland's 10-game losing streak, the betting public is off of them and that's the reason they are showing such great value here tonight. Cleveland has only been beaten once by more than 15 points during their 10-game skid, and once in their last 13 games overall. The Lakers always tend to play down to their competition and they've had that problem for a few years now. They get up for the good teams but don't show up against teams they are supposed to dominate, simply feeling they are superior and even a mediocre effort will get them a victory. The Lakers are 26-56 ATS in their last 82 games as a home favorite of 11.0 or greater. This trend really supports what I'm saying. The Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 11.0 or greater. Take Cleveland Tuesday. |
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01-11-11 | San Antonio Spurs v. Minnesota Timberwolves +7 | Top | 107-96 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
25* NBA Revenge GAME OF THE YEAR on Minnesota Timberwolves +7
The Minnesota Timberwolves take on the San Antonio Spurs for a fourth and final time this season. Minnesota will be out for serious revenge Tuesday considering they have lost each of the first 3 meetings to the Spurs, but each contest has gone right down to the wire to make those losses even more painful. The Spurs won on the road 113-109 (OT) on 11/24, 107-101 at home on 12/03 and 94-91 at home on 1/09. The Timberwolves covered the spread in all three games as they did not lose once by more than 6 points. This Minnesota team is much-improved this season and fully capable of knocking off the Spurs tonight. They will be more motivated for this game than any other they have played all season. Minnesota has blown double-digit leads in the fourth quarter of two of their meetings this season, and have now dropped 15 straight to the Spurs. They keep coming closer and closer to beating them with each meeting and ending this streak, and I believe they finally get it done tonight. "It's pretty frustrating because we match up against them pretty well. We've taken them to three very very tight games; an overtime game," forward Kevin Love said. "We owe them one on Tuesday, hopefully we can get that one and not sulk on (Sunday's loss)." The Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5. The Timberwolves are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5. Roll with the Timberwolves Tuesday. |
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01-10-11 | Houston Rockets +8.5 v. Boston Celtics | 108-102 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
15* NBA Monday ATS ANNIHILATOR on Houston Rockets +8.5
This has been a very funny series between the Houston Rockets and Boston Celtics in the fact that the road team has dominated it. The road team is 7-1 SU & 8-0 ATS in the last 8 meetings in this series. Houston has won 3 of their last 4 meetings in Boston, with their only loss coming by 4 points. The Rockets are showing tremendous value tonight as a big road dog against a Celtics team that continues battling through injuries. These injuries are going to catch up to them. Houston is 0-5 in their last 5 games, so that's a big reason why they are showing so much value here. Taking a closer look, I find that the Rockets have lost all 5 of those games against teams with winning records, and three of those losses came by 7 points or less. This team is very hungry for a win tonight to put an end to this losing streak, and they'll give Boston a run for their money. Boston is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall, winning just twice by more than 3 points. The road team is 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings overall and Houston is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Boston. Take the Rockets Monday. |
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01-09-11 | Minnesota Timberwolves +12 v. San Antonio Spurs | 91-94 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Minnesota Timberwolves +12
Minnesota has already faced the San Antonio Spurs twice this season, losing a couple of hearbreakers. They lost on 11/24 at home in overtime by a final of 109-113, and lost on 12/03 at San Antonio by a final of 107-101. Minnesota has proven they can play with this team, and will be out for revenge Sunday when they travel to face what has been a very vulnerable Spurs team of late. San Antonio is just 1-2 in their last 3 games, with their only victory coming at Indiana by 3 points where they had to come back from 11 points down in the 4th quarter to steal the victory. I see no way they win this game by double-digits Sunday, and would not be surprised to see Minnesota win it outright. The Timberwolves are 5-1 ATS in their last 5 road games, including 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Take Minnesota Sunday. |
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01-08-11 | Indiana Pacers +7 v. Atlanta Hawks | 93-108 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +7
I'll take the Pacers here playing pissed off after blowing an 11-point fourth quarter lead to the San Antonio Spurs last night, losing 87-90. Indiana is much better than their 14-19 record would indicate, but they have simply lost several close games all year. I am not at all concerned about the fact that they are playing back-to-back games here. Indiana players will be hungry to get right back on the court and make amends for their loss to the Spurs. Plus, this team is still well-rested as this is only their 2nd game in 6 days since they had four days off coming into last night's contest. This play falls under a couple of systems. I'll play on road teams (INDIANA) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after 2 straight losses by 6 points or less. This system is 35-12 (75%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. I'll play on road underdogs (INDIANA) - poor shooting team (41.5-43.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%), after 2 straight games making 39% of their shots or worse. This system is 32-9 (78%) ATS since 1996. The Pacers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 Saturday games. Atlanta is only 6-11 ATS in all home games this season. Roll with the Pacers Saturday. |
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01-07-11 | Miami Heat -7 v. Milwaukee Bucks | Top | 101-95 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -7
The Miami Heat are rolling right now, and it's not time to jump off this money train just yet. Miami looks to stretch its road winning streak to 12 games Friday night as it opens a five-game trip that could leave it tied for the longest streak of success away from home in NBA history. The Heat (28-9) began their run Dec. 2 in LeBron James' much-anticipated return to Cleveland, the beginning of an 11-game road streak that's seen them shoot 50.5 percent and win by an average of 15.0 points. The Heat have won 19 of 20 overall, a stretch of dominance Milwaukee (13-20) couldn't end Tuesday in Miami. The Bucks led 51-47 at halftime, but the Heat held Milwaukee to just 38 second-half points en route to a 101-89 win. Miami has won by double-digits in both meetings with the Bucks this season. The Heat come into this game on 2 days' rest, so they will be fresh and ready to go. The Heat are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games overall, cashing 91% of the time. The Bucks have dropped 7 of their last 10 and are plagued by injuries right now. Roll with Miami Friday. |
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01-07-11 | San Antonio Spurs v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 200 | 90-87 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Spurs/Pacers UNDER 200
After back-to-back losses giving up 128 points to the New York Knicks and 105 points to the Boston Celtics, I look for the Spurs to clamp down defensively tonight and get back to playing San Antonio basketball. Even with those poor defensive efforts, the Spurs are yielding just 97.9 PPG this season. The Indiana Pacers have been playing excellent defense all season, allowing 97.6 PPG overall and 96.7 PPG at home. The Pacers haven't been great offensively though, scoring just 96.8 PPG this year. The UNDER is 7-0 in Indiana's last 7 games overall where the Pacers and their opponents have combined to score 194 or less points in all seven contests. This play falls under a system that is 75-37 (67%) to the UNDER since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games. The Pacers are 23-9 to the UNDER in all games this season. Look for both teams to clamp it down defensively as they try and bounce back from losses. Take the UNDER in this game Friday. |
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01-06-11 | Denver Nuggets v. Sacramento Kings +5 | 102-122 | Win | 100 | 10 h 0 m | Show | |
15* Nuggets/Kings NBA on TNT BAILOUT on Sacramento +5
Sacramento catches the Denver Nuggets in a very tough spot tonight. Denver will be playing the second of a back-to-back after losing 93-106 at the Los Angeles Clippers last night. Denver has depth concerns with Kenyon Martin doubtful and Ty Lawson and J.R. Smith both questionable to even play tonight. The Nuggets have been atrocious on the road all season, going 5-11 SU & 7-9 ATS while giving up 105.7 PPG away from home. Sacramento is playing much better of late, beating both Memphis and Phoenix at home in two of their last four games. Denver beat Sacramento 86-104 at home on January 1, so the Kings will also be playing with revenge in mind tonight getting to play the Nuggets twice within a week. The Kings are 23-4 SU & 14-10-3 ATS in their last 27 home meetings with the Nuggets. The home team is 7-0 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in this series, with the Kings going 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in their last three home meetings with the Nuggets. Denver is 7-18-2 ATS in their last 27 road games. Take Sacramento Thursday. |
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01-05-11 | Golden State Warriors +6.5 v. New Orleans Hornets | 110-103 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Golden State Warriors +6.5
The Golden State Warriors are showing solid value tonight when they travel to face the New Orleans Hornets. I look for the Warriors to learn from their mistakes in the past two games after blowing halftime leads against both the Miami Heat and Orlando Magic, two teams they proved they could play with but couldn't put away in the second half. Getting David Lee back in the line-up tonight will help, as he is a key players on this Golden State team. The Warriors have been a thorn in the side of the New Orleans Hornets, going 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings in this series. In their past 6 meetings, Golden State has only lost to the Hornets once by more than 6 points. The Warriors are 20-5 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. New Orleans is 0-9 ATS after allowing 80 points or less over the last 3 seasons. The Hornets are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs. Western Conference foes. Take Golden State Wednesday. |
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01-05-11 | San Antonio Spurs v. Boston Celtics -2 | Top | 103-105 | Push | 0 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -2
The San Antonio Spurs are in a very tough spot tonight when they travel to face the Boston Celtics. The Spurs put a lot of energy into trying to take down the New York Knicks last night in a game that was close throughout. San Antonio would ultimately fall by a final of 115-128 in an absolute shootout. Obviously they were not the ones controlling the pace as they were forced to run with the Knicks all night. Now they'll be playing the second of a back-to-back against the Boston Celtics, who are the best team in the East at 26-7. Boston is 14-2 at home this year, winning by 7.5 PPG. The Celtics are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings with the Spurs. The Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. Boston is 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games following a ATS loss. The Celtics are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. San Antonio is 4-13 ATS versus very good shooting teams - making >=48% of their shots over the last 2 seasons. Boston takes advantage of a tired Spurs team tonight. Bet the Celtics Wednesday. |
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01-04-11 | Toronto Raptors v. Chicago Bulls -8 | 91-111 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -8
The Chicago Bulls are playing some of the best basketball in the NBA over the past month. Chicago is 13-2 in their last 15 games overall, and they've won 4 straight home games all by 9 points or more. The Bulls should have no problem covering this 8-point spread at home tonight against the lowly Toronto Raptors. Toronto is just 11-22 this season, including 4-12 on the road where they are getting beat by an average of 6.3 PPG. The Raptors are 3-11 in their last 14 games overall, with each of their last six losses coming by 9 points or more. The Bulls are 14-3 at home this season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 9.7 PPG. Chicago has won each of their last two meetings with Toronto by 16 and 17 points, respectively. The Raptors are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. Toronto is 20-41 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons. The Raptors are 17-35 ATS versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots over the last 3 seasons. Roll with Chicago Tuesday. |
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01-04-11 | San Antonio Spurs v. New York Knicks UNDER 209 | 115-128 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
15* NBA Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Spurs/Knicks UNDER 209
When looking at recent meetings between San Antonio and New York, it's easy to see why I'm on the UNDER tonight. New York and San Antonio have combined to score 198 or less points in 7 of their last 8 meetings, and the only game that saw more than that was an overtime game in which it was tied 102-102 at the end of regulation. These teams met twice last year, with final combined scores of 184 and 183 points, respectively. San Antonio and their opponents have combined to score 192 or less points in 4 straight games. The UNDER is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 games playing on 2 days rest. The UNDER is 24-9 in Spurs last 33 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5. The UNDER is 4-0 in Knicks last 4 home games. San Antonio is a perfect 8-0 to the UNDER after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday. |
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01-03-11 | Golden State Warriors v. Orlando Magic -10.5 | 90-110 | Win | 100 | 6 h 8 m | Show | |
15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -10.5
I'll take the Magic tonight in what should be an absolute blowout over the Golden State Warriors. The Warriors look to be without their two best post players Monday, which paves the way for the Magic and Dwight Howard to get plenty of easy points in the paint. Both David Lee and Andris Biedrins are doubtful tonight, and without them the Warriors have no answer for Howard. Golden State is just 5-14 on the road this season, giving up a ridiculous 106.3 PPG. Orlando is on a roll right now, and it's looking more and more like they got the best end of the blockbuster trade they pulled off a couple weeks back. The Magic are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. They come in on 2 days' rest and will be ready to run their winning streak to six against the depleted Warriors. Orlando is 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings with Golden State overall, and 10-3 SU & 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home meetings. The Warriors are 3-14 ATS in road games after a game where they made 12 or more 3 point shots over the last 3 seasons. Golden State shot well last time out, but still lost at Miami by giving up 114 points. Take the Magic Monday. |
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01-02-11 | Houston Rockets v. Portland Trail Blazers -3.5 | 85-100 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -3.5
I know the Blazers have some injury issues, but they remain one of the best home teams in the league and have proven they have enough depth to overcome the injuries. There is some value here with this line simply because they are missing a few players. Portland has gone 9-5 over their last 14 games so they are playing solid basketball over the past month. The Blazers are 11-3 SU & 9-5 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 6.9 PPG. Portland is scoring 98.5 PPG and allowing 91.6 PPG at home where they have had one of the best advantages in the league over the last few seasons. Houston is 6-11 on the road this season where they give up a ridiculous 107.3 PPG. I'll gladly back the better defensive team with my money, as Portland allows 15.7 PPG less at home than Houston does on the road. The home team is 9-0 in the last 9 meetings in this series, so obviously home-court advantage has played a huge role in deciding the outcome. Bet Portland Sunday. |
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12-31-10 | Golden State Warriors v. Charlotte Bobcats -3 | 96-95 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 37 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Bobcats -3
The Charlotte Bobcats are playing much better basketball since making a coaching change. They have won back-to-back games and look to continue their dominance over the Golden State Warriors tonight. Charlotte is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 meetings with Golden State, including back-to-back double-digit victories both coming last season. The Bobcats play defense and the Warriors do not, which is a big reason why they own this team. Golden State is allowing 106.5 PPG and 47% shooting on the road while Charlotte is giving up 96.4 PPG and 43% shooting at home. The Warriors are only putting up 98.9 PPG on the road where they are 4-13 SU this season. Charlotte owns a winning home record this year and as just 3-point favorites, are showing excellent value tonight. The Bobcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. Charlotte is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Bobcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home meetings with Golden State. Roll with Charlotte Friday. |
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12-30-10 | New York Knicks v. Orlando Magic -7 | 103-112 | Win | 100 | 5 h 6 m | Show | |
15* NBA on TNT Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -7
The Magic were averaging 7.4 fastbreak points per game when they made the big trade on Dec. 18. The team has averaged 17.5 fastbreak points per game since Arenas, Earl Clark, Richardson and Turkoglu started playing for the squad. Orlando has gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games while winning each time by 8 points or more. They beat the Spurs, Celtics, Nets and Cavs all by an average of 15.3 PPG. The Knicks have come back down to earth, losing 4 of their last 6 overall. They went on a big run earlier this season, but that was all against weak competition. Amare Stoudemire is having a big year, but he will struggle trying to shoot over Dwight Howard, the best big man in the league today. The Knicks will have to rely on finding points elsewhere, and it simply won't be enough to keep them in this ball game. The Magic are 7-1 (88%) ATS in their last 8 Thursday games. This play also falls under a system that is 36-13 (74%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ORLANDO) - off a road win scoring 110 or more points, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%). Bet the Magic Thursday. |
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12-29-10 | Golden State Warriors v. Atlanta Hawks OVER 202 | 93-103 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Warriors/Hawks OVER 202
When looking at previous meetings between these teams, it's easy to see why the final score of this contest will go OVER the number by game's end. Neither team has made many changes personnel-wise, so there's no reason to believe they will not play in another shootout tonight. Golden State and Atlanta have combined to score 209 or more points in 10 straight meetings dating back to 2005. The OVER is 9-2 in their last 11 meetings, and 11-2 in their last 13 meetings in Atlanta. The Warriors have scored 109 or more points in 4 straight games. They are hitting on all cylinders offensively. Golden State still doesn't play much defense as they yield 106.3 PPG overall and 106.7 PPG on the road. Atlanta is 9-1 to the OVER in home games after a blowout win by 15 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Hawks are 15-4 to the OVER in home games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% over the last 2 seasons. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday. |
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12-28-10 | New York Knicks +9 v. Miami Heat | 98-106 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on New York Knicks +9
The New York Knicks will be out for revenge tonight against a Miami Heat team that beat them less than two weeks ago on 12/17 by a final of 113-91. The Heat won't be up for this game after just playing the Lakers on Christmas Day and beating the defending champs handily. New York will be giving their best effort tonight, which is something they have been doing for quite some time. The Knicks are 15-4 SU in their last 19 games and 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games. The Knicks have actually been playing their best basketball on the road where they are 10-5 SU & 12-3 ATS this season. The Heat are just 5-10 ATS at home this season. Miami is 1-9 ATS in home games vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts this season. The Knicks are 11-1 ATS as a road underdog this season. New York is 23-7 ATS revenging a home blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more since 1996. Roll with the Knicks Tuesday. |
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12-27-10 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Golden State Warriors OVER 205 | 95-110 | Push | 0 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
15* 76ers/Warriors NBA Monday Night BAILOUT on OVER 205
This is a very low total for a Warriors home game. I'll gladly take the value and back the OVER in this contest as they host the Philadelphia 76ers. Golden State is scoring 104.8 PPG and allowing 106.7 PPG at home this season for an average combined score of 211.5 PPG. As you can see, there is some really nice value with this OVER tonight. Philly also allows over 100 PPG on the road. Golden State is 23-11 to the OVER as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons. The Warriors are 65-41 to the OVER in home games after scoring 105 points or more 2 straight games since 1996. The OVER is 37-15 in Warriors last 52 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5. The OVER is 44-20 in Warriors last 64 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The OVER is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings in Golden State. Roll with the OVER Monday. |
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12-26-10 | Atlanta Hawks v. New Orleans Hornets -4 | 86-93 | Win | 100 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Hornets -4
The Hornets have one of the best home court advantages in the NBA this season, and should have no problem taking care of the Atlanta Hawks by 5 points or more Sunday. The Hornets are 12-3 SU & 9-6 ATS at home this season, scoring 97.8 PPG and allowing 90.1 PPG while outscoring opponents by 7.7 PPG. The Hornets are 40-18 ATS in home games after 2 consecutive non-conference games since 1996. New Orleans is 40-19 ATS in home games after a game where they made 50% of their 3 point shots or better since 1996. The Hawks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. Atlanta is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. Western Conference foes. The Hornets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Roll with New Orleans Sunday. |
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12-25-10 | Miami Heat v. Los Angeles Lakers -2 | 96-80 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 22 m | Show | |
15* Heat/Lakers ABC Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles -2
Getting the Lakers as just a 2-point favorite Saturday is like giving money away. Los Angeles has had 3 days of rest to prepare for the Miami Heat, and that will prove to be a big factor tonight. Miami played a hard-fought game two nights ago against the Phoenix Suns and they come in on only 1 days rest. The distractions from Christmas season will certainly take their toll on the Heat in this one, while the extra rest has given the Lakers time to take care of the issues that arrise for an NBA player during Christmas. They will be 100% focused today. Coming off a loss like the one they suffered against the Bucks last time out, the Lakers will respond in a big way. Obviously they were looking ahead to this game, which is only human nature. Los Angeles has an on/off switch and they have the ability to turn it "On" whenever they want to. This play falls under a system that is 30-9 (77%) since 1996. It tells us to bet on any team (LA LAKERS) - off an upset loss as a favorite of 10 points or more, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). Roll with the Lakers Saturday. |
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12-25-10 | Chicago Bulls v. New York Knicks -1.5 | 95-103 | Win | 100 | 20 h 7 m | Show | |
15* Bulls/Knicks ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on New York -1.5
The Knicks are showing tremendous value at home Saturday as they host the Chicago Bulls. New York has gone 14-4 in their last 18 games overall and really should be a bigger favorite today with how well they've been playing. The Knicks are really cashin in at the pay window where they are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games. Certainly Chicago is playing well also, but they are not showing value at all here playing as the road team. This play also falls under a system that is 23-6 (79%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW YORK) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after a game where both teams scored 90 points or less. New York is 14-4 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons. The Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. Bet New York Saturday. |
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12-23-10 | San Antonio Spurs v. Orlando Magic -2.5 | 101-123 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
15* NBA on TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Orlando Magic -2.5
The San Antonio Spurs come into this game very tired, and it will show on the floor Thursday. The Spurs will be playing the second of a back-to-back, their 3rd game in 4 days and their 4th game in 6 days. They had to put together a big 4th quarter comeback to beat the Nuggets last night, and that effort will really take a lot out of them. I know the Spurs are on a 10-game winning streak, but that comes to an end tonight. Each of their last five wins have come by single-digits. Orlando comes into this game highly motivated for a victory. The Magic have lost 8 of their last 9 overall, and clearly want to stop the bleeding and stop it now. Orlando has played with the new players they received in their blockbuster trade over the past two games. These new additions have not produced yet, but in their third game with their new team the likes of Arenas, Richardson and Turkoglu should be much more effective tonight now that they are becoming more familiar with Stan Van Gundy's system. The Magic are 9-5 at home this season, winning by 8.5 PPG. The Magic are 16-5 ATS in home games vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game since 1996. Orlando is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games. Roll with the Magic Thursday. |
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12-22-10 | Denver Nuggets v. San Antonio Spurs -7.5 | 103-109 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -7.5
Carmelo Anthony is out tonight for the Denver Nuggets, and they simply aren't the same team without him in the line-up. Anthony is the best pure scorer in the NBA and the Nuggets don't have enough scorers around him to pick up the slack. San Antonio has won 9 straight games and they continue rolling tonight. The Spurs are also 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 meetings with the Nuggets. Denver is just 4-8 on the road this season where opponents are scoring 104.2 PPG and shooting 48.1% from the floor. This play falls under a system that is 85-38 (69%) since 1996. It tells us to bet against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DENVER) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, playing with 3 or more days rest. The Spurs are 15-2 at home this season, winning by an average of 10.1 PPG. Denver is 1-10 ATS in road games after a combined score of 225 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Nuggets are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Spurs are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Take San Antonio Wednesday. |
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12-21-10 | New Jersey Nets +6 v. Memphis Grizzlies | 101-94 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on New Jersey Nets +6
This play falls under a system that is 60-26 (70%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MEMPHIS) - off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, playing with 2 days rest. New Jersey is playing much better of late, as they have not lost by more than 7 points in any of their last 5 games. That 7-point loss came against the defending champion Los Angeles Lakers. The Nets are 5-4 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last 9 meetings with the Grizzlies overall. Whenever you find Memphis in the role of the favorite like this, it's normally a wise move to fade them. The Grizzlies are 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games as a home favorite. Memphis is 5-13-2 ATS in their last 20 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Nets are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Memphis is 0-9 ATS in home games off 2 or more consecutive road losses over the last 3 seasons. Roll with the Nets Tuesday. |
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12-20-10 | Utah Jazz v. Cleveland Cavaliers +7 | 101-90 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +7
Utah is just 4-4 SU & 3-5 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Asking them to win by 7 on the road here is simply too much to ask in my opinion. The Jazz are scoring 97.2 PPG and allowing 96.9 PPG on the road this season, playing teams almost dead even. With the way Cleveland plays defense at home, it not only gives them a great chance to cover but also to win outright. The Cavaliers are allowing 96.8 PPG at home this year. Cleveland is 10-3 SU & 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home meetings with the Jazz. This play falls under a system that is 47-17 (73%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UTAH) - after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, in non-conference games. The Jazz are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win. Take the Cavaliers Monday. |
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12-19-10 | Houston Rockets -3.5 v. Sacramento Kings | 102-93 | Win | 100 | 5 h 16 m | Show | |
15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -3.5
I like the Rockets quite a bit here Sunday as they take on the lowly Sacramento Kings. Houston is hitting their stride, in the midst of their best run of the season. The Rockets are 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall. The Kings are 5-19 on the season and 1-12 in their last 13 games overall, also going 4-9 ATS in the process. The Rockets have won each of their last two meetings with the Kings by double-digits, including a 118-105 victory over Sacramento in their lone meeting this year. Sacramento is 0-8 ATS versus good foul drawing teams - attempting >=27 free throws/game this season. The Kings are 1-13 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season. Sacramento is 1-11 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season. Bet the Rockets Sunday |
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12-17-10 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Houston Rockets -2.5 | 87-103 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
15* NBA Western Conference No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -2.5
The Houston Rockets are starting to round into form, going 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall. This team is learning how to play without Yao Ming and Aaron Brooks, and they are getting comfortable with one another. Houston has been virtually unstoppable at home of late, and that's why I'm all over them tonight as a mere 2.5-point home favorite over the Grizzlies. The Rockets are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games. Houston is 23-5 SU in their last 28 home meetings with the Grizzlies. The Rockets are also 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with Memphis overall. There is simply too much to like about Houston at home tonight to lay off this game. Bet the Rockets Friday. |
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12-17-10 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Detroit Pistons -2.5 | Top | 109-88 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 60 m | Show |
25* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Detroit Pistons -2.5
This is about as easy as it gets tonight folks. Knowing that the Los Angeles Clippers are 0-11 on the road while getting outscored by 11.2 PPG this season makes this play so easy it's almost unfair. Detroit is a respectable 6-6 at home this season where they are clearly playing their best basketball. In fact, they are scoring 102.1 PPG at home this year while they are averaging less than 90 PPG on the road. Detroit is 11-2 SU & 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home meetings with the Clippers. Los Angeles is 1-10 ATS after a game forcing opponent to commit 5 or less turnovers since 1996. The Clippers are 0-9 ATS in their last 9 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The Pistons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Roll with the Pistons Friday. |
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12-17-10 | Miami Heat v. New York Knicks OVER 210 | 113-91 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 30 m | Show | |
15* Heat/Knicks ESPN Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on OVER 210
New York is hitting on all cylinders offensively right now. They have scored 100 or more points in each of their last 9 games overall, and are putting up 108.8 PPG this season. Defensively, they still aren't getting it done while allowing 107.0 PPG overall and 108.0 PPG at home. Miami has scored 101 or more points in 4 of their last 5 games and the Heat have now won 10 straight games since James and Wade finally learned how to play together. These teams are used to playing in shootouts even before the "Big 3" made their way to South Beach. The OVER is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between the Heat and Knicks. The OVER is 5-0 in Heat last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Knicks are 5-0 to the OVER in their last 5 home games. Take the OVER in this contest Friday. |
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12-16-10 | San Antonio Spurs -1 v. Denver Nuggets | 113-112 | Push | 0 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
15* Spurs/Nuggets NBA Thursday Night BAILOUT on San Antonio -1
San Antonio, owners of the best record in the NBA at 21-3, are clearly the play tonight as they take on the Denver Nuggets. The Spurs are on a mission this season to return to relevance, and they are doing a great job of it by breezing through the competition. San Antonio is healthy right now, which is a big reason for their resurgence. The same cannot be said for the Nuggets, who will be playing for at least a week without starting point guard Chauncey Billups due to a wrist injury. Not to mention both Chris Andersen and Kenyon Martin remain out. The Spurs are 8-1 SU & 6-2 ATS on the road this season, outscoring opponents by 8.1 PPG. Denver is 14-31 ATS after a game where they covered the spread over the last 2 seasons. The Nuggets are 8-20 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. The Spurs are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Nuggets are 5-23-5 ATS in their last 33 games following a ATS win. Denver is 5-17-4 ATS in their last 26 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Spurs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in Denver, and the road team is a perfect 8-0 ATS in the last 8 meetings in this series. Take San Antonio Thursday. |
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12-15-10 | Charlotte Bobcats +8.5 v. Memphis Grizzlies | Top | 80-113 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
20* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Bobcats +8.5
Memphis has not been this big of a favorite all season. The most the Grizzlies have been favored by is 7 points, and the clear value in this game is with the underdog Bobcats Wednesday. The Grizzlies are just 11-14 on the season. Charlotte's ability to get after it on the defensive end gives them an excellent chance in every game. The Bobcats allow 96.7 PPG this season. Charlotte has been on a nice UNDERS run here of late, which means they are playing well defensively. The Bobcats are a perfect 11-0 ATS after 4 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons. The Grizzlies are 4-13-2 ATS in their last 19 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Memphis is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Grizzlies are 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 games as a home favorite. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Bet Charlotte Wednesday. |