Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-23-13 | Nebraska-Omaha +8.5 v. Drake | 80-88 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show | |
15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Nebraska-Omaha +8.5
Nebraska-Omaha is one of the most underrated teams in the country in the early going. This is a team that returned four starters from last season and is playing just its second season as a Division 1 squad. That's why the Mavericks are under the radar because the betting public hasn't caught on yet. The Mavericks returned each of their top five scorers from last season in Justin Simmons (16.7 ppg), John Karhoff (12.0 ppg), CJ Carter (9.7 ppg), Alex Phillips (8.2 ppg) and Marcus Tyus (8.2 ppg). All five guys have made significant contributions in the early going. Carter is leading the way with 15.8 points per game. Karhoff (11.2 ppg), Tyus (11.2 ppg), Simmons (7.2 ppg) and Phillips (6.5) have picked up right where they left off as well. Devin Patterson (11.8 ppg, 4.5 apg) and Mike Rostampour (7.2 ppg, 4.4 rpg) have emerged onto the scene as well to really show the depth of this team. Nebraska-Omaha is off to a 3-2 start this season. Its only two losses have come on the road against Iowa (75-83) as a 29.5-point underdog, and UNLV (70-73) as a 14-point dog. It has beaten Northern Illinois (68-66) on the road as a 6.5-point dog. It also beat Missouri-KC (101-71) and South Carolina State (91-59) at home. Iowa and UNLV are both expected to make the NCAA Tournament this season, so those losses were impressive to say the least. Drake only returned two starters this season and lost three of its top four scores, including Ben Simmons (14.1 ppg). Drake did play well in road games against Illinois Chicago (61-59) and Saint Mary's (63-67), but this team is getting way too much respect as an 8.5-point favorite here. After going into Iowa and losing by 8, and going into UNLV and losing by 3, there's no question the Mavericks can stay within 8 of the Bulldogs. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised one bit to see Nebraska-Omaha win outright. Drake is not as good of a team as either Iowa or UNLV. One thing I love about this Nebraska-Omaha team is its free throw shooting. It has averaged 22 makes on 28 attempts per game for a 79.0% free throw percentage. With the emphasis on calling more fouls this season, free throw shooting is at a premium. This is a very tough spot for Drake. It is coming off a heartbreaking loss at Saint Mary's last time out. It could certainly suffer a hangover from that defeat. That's especially the case when you consider it has another big road game at Fresno State on deck. Drake is 0-6 ATS after forcing its last opponents to commit eight or less turnovers over the last three seasons. The Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last four non-conference games. Nebraska-Omaha is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games. These three trends combine for a perfect 14-0 system backing the Mavericks. Take Nebraska-Omaha Saturday. |
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11-22-13 | Davidson v. Clemson -4 | 54-85 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Clemson -4
The Clemson Tigers came into the 2013-14 season way undervalued after going just 13-18 in head coach Brad Brownell's first season last year. The Tigers had to transition from Oliver Purnell's up-tempo style to Brownell's motion offense, and there was no question it was going to take some time. Well, Clemson appears to be hitting on all cylinders to open the season this year. It has started 4-0 with four straight blowout victories over Stetson (71-51), Delaware State (58-37) South Carolina (71-57) and Temple (72-58). The Tigers returned five of their top seven scorers from last season, and all five have made significant contributions in the early going. K.J. McDaniels, the top returning scorer, has averaged 18.0 points, 7.5 rebounds and 5.0 blocks per game to lead the charge. Rod Hall (11.0 ppg, 4.0 apg), Jordan Roper (11.2 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 3.8 apg), Demarcus Harrison (7.2 ppg) and Adonis Filer (4.8 ppg) have all upped their games this season from last year. Davidson returns just two starters from last season and loses three of its top four scorers. The going has certainly been tough for the Wildcats in the early going as this team has clearly taken a big step back from last year. They have opened 1-3 with losses to Duke (77-111), Wisconsin-Milwaukee (77-81) and Virginia (57-70). Their 94-82 win over a horrible Georgia team last night was far from impressive. With free throws being more important this season, it's certainly worth pointing out that the Tigers have been cashing in their free throws at a deadly rate this season. They are making a ridiculous 81.2% of their free throws thus far. That could come in handy if this game is close down the stretch, though I don't expect it will be. This will essentially be a home game for Clemson as it will be played inside TD Bank Arena in Charleston, South Carolina. The Wildcats are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS win. The Tigers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games. Clemson is 4-1 ATS in its last five neutral site games. The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning percentage below 40%. Bet Clemson Friday. |
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11-22-13 | Towson v. Kansas -17.5 | 58-88 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
15* CBB Friday Big Chalk BLOWOUT on Kansas -17.5
The Kansas Jayhawks should be a much bigger favorite at home Friday against Towson. I look for them to be covering by halftime, and to build on their lead from there. The books have missed their mark badly tonight folks. Somehow, I believe the Jayhawks actually came into 2013 underrated due to the lack of experience they had returning. However, they have made up for it with the talent they brought in, and the talent that was left over. Kansas has opened 3-0 this year, which includes a 94-83 win over Duke. I believe that the Blue Devils are one of the top three teams in the country, right along with Kansas, so that win was impressive to say the least. Perry Ellis (19.0 ppg, 8.0 rpg) has been a monster thus far. Andrew Wiggins (17.0 ppg, 6.0 rpg) is expected to be the No. 1 overall pick in next year's NBA Draft. Wayne Selden Jr. (10.0 ppg, 4.3apg), Joel Embiid (9.0 ppg, 8.0 rpg) and Frank Mason (9.0 ppg) have been solid as well. Towson State is getting too much respect from the books tonight due to its 3-1 start. All three victories came at home against the likes of Navy, Morgan State and Temple. In its lone road game, Towson lost badly by a final of 44-78 at Villanova. I look for a similar result tonight as Towson is simply outclassed in this one. The Jayhawks are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games overall. Kansas has won 65 straight non-conference games at home and has taken two meetings with Towson over that stretch by a combined 72 points. The Jayhawks are 6-0 ATS in home games after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games over the last three seasons. The Jayhawks are 6-0 ATS after scoring 80 points or more in two straight games over the last two seasons. Kansas is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. These three trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing the Jayhawks. Bet Kansas Friday. |
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11-21-13 | Temple v. Clemson -3.5 | 58-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Clemson -3.5
The Clemson Tigers came into the 2013-14 season way undervalued after going just 13-18 in head coach Brad Brownell's first season last year. The Tigers had to transition from Oliver Purnell's up-tempo style to Brownell's motion offense, and there was no question it was going to take some time. Well, Clemson appears to be hitting on all cylinders to open the season this year. It has started 3-0 with three straight blowout victories over Stetson (71-51), Delaware State (58-37) and South Carolina (71-57). The Tigers returned five of their top seven scorers from last season, and all five have made significant contributions in the early going. K.J. McDaniels, the top returning scorer, has averaged 17.3 points, 7.3 rebounds and 4.3 blocks per game to lead the charge. Rod Hall (10.3 ppg, 3.7 apg), Jordan Roper (10.3 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 3.7 apg), Demarcus Harrison (8.3 ppg, 3.3 rpg) and Adonis Filer (6.3 ppg) have all upped their games this season from last year. Temple simply lost a ton of talent from last year and is in rebuilding mode. It lost four of its top five scorers in Khalif Wyatt (20.5 ppg), Scootie Randall (11.3 ppg), Jake O'Brien (9.8 ppg) and Rahlir Hollis-Jefferson (8.9 ppg). The leading returning scorers are Anthony Lee (9.8 ppg) and Will Cummings (5.8 ppg). The Owls have struggled in the early going as a result, opening 1-2 with their only win coming at Pennsylvania (78-73). They lost at home to Kent State (77-81) and on the road to Towson State (69-75). This team is clearly in a world of hurt and has no depth. Only eight players have even seen the floor this year, and three of them have been Daniel Dingle (3.3 ppg), Josh Brown (2.0 ppg) and Devontae Watson (1.3 ppg). With free throws being more important this season, it's certainly worth pointing out the advantage the Tigers will have at the charity stripe in this one. Clemson is shooting 81.4% from the line on an average of 20 free throws per game. Temple is shooting 69.7% from the line on 22 attempts per contest. This will essentially be a home game for Clemson as it will be played inside TD Bank Arena in Charleston, South Carolina. Plays on a favorite (CLEMSON) - good defensive team from last season - allowed 64 or less points/game, after allowing 60 points or less 3 straight games are 76-39 (66.1%) ATS since 1997. The Tigers are 6-0 ATS in November road games over the last three seasons. The Tigers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine non-conference games. Roll with Clemson Thursday. |
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11-21-13 | Connecticut v. Boston College +10 | Top | 72-70 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
20* UConn/Boston College National TV KNOCKOUT on Boston College +10
I fully expected Boston College to be one of the most improved teams in the country this season. They returned 96 percent of their scoring from last season, 96 percent of their rebounding and 98 percent of their assists. A 1-3 start has not changed my opinion on this team, but it certainly has created some line value as the Eagles are a 10-point underdog to Connecticut tonight on a neutral floor when they shouldn't be. A closer look at Boston College's 1-3 start shows that it could easily be 3-1 right now. Two of its losses came on the road to very good teams in Providence (78-82) and UMass (73-86). The other was a home loss to a Toledo (92-95) team that is much better than it gets credit for. The Eagles returned two of the best players in the ACC in Ryan Anderson (14.9 ppg, 8.0 rpg) and Olivier Hanlan (14.6 ppg), who scored 41 points against Georgia Tech in the ACC Tournament and finished very strong last year. Both have picked up right where they left off last season. Hanlan is averaging 24.5 points per game, while Anderson has posted 16.2 points per contest. The Eagles are shooting 83.2% from the free throw line, which will come in handy considering the emphasis on more foul calls this season. Connecticut is overvalued right now due to its perfect 4-0 start to the season. It has played a very soft schedule with three of its wins coming against Yale (80-62), Detroit (101-55) and Boston (77-60). In its only real test of the season, the Huskies failed to cover their 5-point spread in a 78-77 win over Maryland on a neutral floor. This is a quality squad, but they should not be a double-digit favorite over Boston College tonight. Connecticut is 13-30 ATS off two consecutive homes wins by 10 points or more since 1997. UConn is 0-7 ATS after four or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons. Boston College is 6-0 ATS off a close home win by 3 points or less over the last three seasons. The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings between these teams. These last three trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing the Eagles. Bet Boston College Thursday. |
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11-20-13 | Dayton +7.5 v. Georgia Tech | 82-72 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
15* CBB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Dayton +7.5
I believe Dayton came into the 2013-14 season way undervalued after going just 17-14 last season. A closer look shows that this team was much better than its record would indicate. Indeed, the Flyers played 13 games that were decided by six points or less last season, winning only three of them. That means that only four of their 14 losses came by more than six points. This team was very close to being a 20-plus win team, and I fully expect the Flyers to top that number this season with better fortune in close games. Archie Miller's team brings back a ton of talent this year. Veteran guard Vee Sanford is back, as is a sophomore class of Dyshawn Pierre, Jalen Robinson, Devon Scott and Khari Price that played 34 percent of the team's minutes as freshmen. Matt Kavanaugh averaged 9.0 points and 5.0 rebounds as a junior, but was suspended all of last season. Jordan Sibert, an Ohio State transfer, is a major find. Freshmen guards Kendall Pollard and Dayshon Smith were big recruits. All of this talent has led to a 3-0 start for Dayton this season. It is shooting 47.5% from the floor, 48.3% from 3-point range, and 76.2% from the free throw line. Pierre (15.3 ppg, 6.3 rpg), Price (14.7 ppg), Sibert (11.7 ppg), Devin Oliver (10.7 ppg, 8.7 rpg), Sanford (9.3 ppg) and Kavanaugh (5.7 ppg, 5.7 rpg) have all made major contributions thus far. Georgia Tech is coming off a huge 80-71 win at in-state rival Georgia, which puts it in a big letdown spot here. I'm not expecting much at all from this team in 2013 after going just 16-15 last year. The Yellow Jackets do have a lot of experience coming back from last year, but the fact of the matter is that the talent just isn't that good. Dayton is 6-0 ATS after playing three consecutive home games over the last three seasons. Georgia Tech is 6-21 ATS in its last 27 games following an ATS win. The Yellow Jackets are 9-24 ATS in their last 33 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Georgia Tech is 7-20 ATS in its last 27 games following a S.U. win. Take Dayton Wednesday. |
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11-19-13 | Bucknell +8.5 v. St John's | 63-67 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
15* CBB Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Bucknell +8.5
The Bucknell Bison are coming off a 28-6 season in which they earned the No. 11 seed in the NCAA Tournament. While they lost three of their top players, they return all-conference pick Cameron Ayers (12.4 ppg) along with experienced backups in senior Ryan Hill, junior Steven Kaspar and sophomore Ryan Frazier. I have been really impressed with what I've seen from the Bison en route to a 2-1 start this season. Their only loss came at Stanford by a final of 68-72. They went on the road and beat Penn State 90-80, while also topping St. Francis-PA 72-50 at home. Bucknell is shooting 52.1% from the floor, 45.3% from 3-point range, and 80% from the free throw line. Ayers (15.3 ppg) and Kaspar (14.3 ppg, 5.7 apg, 5.0 rpg) have led the way, while Ben Brackney (11.7 ppg), Dan Hoffman (11.7 ppg) and Brian Fitzpatrick (9.7 ppg, 4.3 rpg) have been pleasant surprises. St. John's is coming off a brutal 17-16 campaign last season and I haven't been impressed with what I've seen from the Red Storm so far. They have opened 1-1 with their loss coming against Wisconsin by a final of 75-86 on a neutral floor as a 5-point underdog. Their 73-57 home win over Wagner was far from impressive, too. The Red Storm are 1-10 ATS after allowing 60 points or less over the last three seasons. They are actually losing in this spot 65.9 to 70.1, or by an average of 4.2 points per game. St. John's is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following a S.U. win. Take Bucknell Tuesday. |
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11-18-13 | Norfolk State v. East Carolina -1.5 | 74-76 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on East Carolina -1.5
East Carolina is showing tremendous value tonight as only a 1.5-point favorite over Norfolk State. This is the NIT Tip Off played at Cameron Indoor Stadium, which is the home of the Duke Blue Devils. With a chance to play Duke next, ECU will certainly want to take care of business tonight to take advantage of that opportunity. I really like what I've seen from ECU thus far en route to a 3-0 start. It has posted blowout home victories over NC Wesleyan (97-51) and Chowan (95-45), as well as an impressive road win at UNC-Greensboro (85-84). It is scoring 92.3 points per game on 48.5% shooting. It is also hitting 71.2% of its free throws, and outrebounding opponents 47-34 on average. It is holding opponents to 60.0 points on 35.3% shooting. Norfolk State has been far less impressive en route to a 2-1 start. Its two wins have both come at home against the likes of Newberry (115-95) and Virginia Union (92-84). It lost in its lone road game to Texas Southern (83-95). It is allowing a ridiculous 91.3 points per game on 48.2% shooting. I'll gladly take the better defensive team in this one. Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NORFOLK ST) - after allowing 75 points or more 3 straight games against opponent after scoring 80 points or more 3 straight games are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS since 1997. This is an ECU team that went 23-12 last season and one that is obviously a quality bunch again in 2013. Bet East Carolina Monday. |
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11-18-13 | The Citadel +28 v. Tennessee | 60-86 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
15* CBB Monday Night Line Mistake on The Citadel +28
Tennessee is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight. It has opened 1-1 with its only win coming against lowly USC Upstate at home by a final of 74-65. I fully expect this game to be much closer than this 28-point spread as well as The Citadel is one of the more underrated teams in the country in my opinion. The Citadel returned four starters from last season, and it is off to a 2-2 start with both of its losses coming on the road by 11 and 15 points, respectively. It has three studs in Matt Van Scyoc (18.0 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 92.9% free throws), Brian White (15.5 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 81.2% free throws) and Ashton Moore (13.0 ppg, 6.0 apg, 78.6% free throws). Marshall Harris III (9.5 ppg, 4.5 apg, 100% free throws) has been a solid contributor as well. With the importance of free throws being at a premium this season, I really like backing teams like The Citadel, which is shooting 75.9% from the charity stripe as a team. It is also only allowing 40.2% shooting to opponents and putting them on the free throw line an average of 19 times per game, so it is sound defensively. Tennessee only brings back one starters from last season. It certainly has not been impressive in opening 1-1. It is shooting just 38.6% from the field while allowing opponents to shoot 46.8%. The Volunteers have struggled at the free throw line as well, making just 65.5% of their attempts. This team is clearly overrated in the early going, and that was evident in a 74-65 win over USC Upstate. The Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a S.U. win. The Citadel is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Volunteers are 0-4 ATS in their last four non-conference games. Take The Citadel Monday. |
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11-16-13 | Tulsa v. Missouri State -4.5 | 93-96 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Missouri State -4.5
After a 2-10 start last year with an inexperienced roster, Missouri State really rebounded to finish 11-22. Now, with four starters back, I fully expect this to be one of the most improved teams in the country. Guard Marcus Marshall (11.5 ppg) and junior Christian Kirk (8.7 ppg, 4.2 rpg) are the top two returnees. After missing all of last season with a knee injury, senior forward Jamar Gulley returns. He averaged 10.4 points and 5.8 rebounds in 2011-12. Northern Colorado transfer Emmanuel Addo is 6'7", 220 pounds. Freshman Tyler McCullough (6'10", 230) is ready to contribute right away. Missouri State is off to a solid start this season, picking up a 79-67 win at Old Dominion as a 1.5-point favorite. They grabbed 52 rebounds in that game and shot 72.2% from the free throw line, which will be huge with the new rules and tons of fouls being called. Gulley and Marshall led the way with 18 points apiece, while Austin Ruder added 14 points. Tulsa is a team in rebuilding mode under second-year head coach Danny Manning. Its roster is made up of 12 of 165 players who are either freshmen or sophomores. That inexperience showed in the opener, losing 68-74 at home to Oral Roberts. The Golden Hurricane were outrebounded 28-45 in the loss. What really cost them was going 17-of-36 from the free throw line for 47.2% shooting. Free throws could easily be the difference in this game, and I like Missouri State's chances of making them a lot more than Tulsa's. With a line of only 4.5, those free throws will be huge. The Bears are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games overall, including 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games. Roll with Missouri State Saturday. |
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11-15-13 | Nebraska-Omaha +13.5 v. UNLV | 70-73 | Win | 100 | 19 h 57 m | Show | |
15* CBB Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Nebraska-Omaha +13.5
There are so many things to like about Nebraska-Omaha heading into their showdown with UNLV tonight at 10:00 EST. First and foremost, Nebraska-Omaha is in just its second season as a Division 1 team, which makes it under the radar to the general betting public. That's why there is going to be a lot of value on this team until the public starts to realize how good they really are. Omaha managed to finish in the middle of the pack in the Summit League last year. Now, with six of their top seven scorers back from last season, this is going to be one of the most improved teams in the country. Justin Simmons (16.7 ppg), John Karhoff (12.0 ppg), CJ Carter (9.7 ppg), Alex Phillips (8.2 ppg) and Marcus Tyus (6.0 ppg) are all back. These five players have led Omaha to a 2-1 start. They went on the road and beat Northern Illinois 68-66 as a 6.5-point underdog, and then they gave a very good Iowa team from the Big Ten all they wanted and more. Omaha would lost 75-83 as a 29.5-point dog, easily covering the spread. The Mavericks came back with a 101-71 home victory over Missouri-KC on Wednesday for their second win of the year. Carter is off to a hot start, averaging 20.7 points per game. Karhoff (11.0 ppg) and Devin Patterson (10.0 ppg) have played well, too. What's most impressive about Omaha's start is that last year's leading scorer Justin Simmons has been held to just 9.7 ppg on 28.6% shooting. This team is really going to be dangerous once he gets going. UNLV lost so much talent from last season that it simply cannot replace. It lost three off its top four scorers, including the No. 1 overall pick in the 2013 draft in F Anthony Bennett (16.1 ppg, 8.1 rpg). Only Khem Birch (7.2 ppg) and Bryce Dejean-Jones (10.3 ppg) are back who played significant minutes last season. Making matters worse for the Rebels is that Dejean-Jones is nursing a hamstring injury. Dejean-Jones returned in UNLV's last game, which was an ugly 65-86 home loss to UC-Santa Barbara as an 8.5-point favorite. He was held to 1-of-5 shooting for five points in 16 minutes of action. It was clear that he wasn't healthy, and without him at full strength, the Rebels are in a world of hurt going forward. With all of the fouls that are being called this season due to the rule changes, free throw shooting becomes a huge factor on which team is going to cover the spread. Omaha is averaging 22-of-28 for 80.7% from the charity stripe in 2013. UNLV is averaging 12-of-24 for 50% from the free throw line this year. As you can see, the Mavericks will have a big edge in free throws in this one. Plays on an underdog (NEBRASKA-OMAHA) - after a win by 15 points or more against opponent after a blowout loss by 20 points or more are 252-161 (61%) ATS since 1997. The Rebels are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games overall, including 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games. The Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games. Take Nebraska-Omaha Friday. |
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11-14-13 | North Dakota State v. St Mary's CA -6 | 65-78 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show | |
15* NDSU/Saint Mary's CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Saint Mary's -6
Saint Mary's came into the season way undervalued due to the loss of leading scorer Mathew Dellavedova. But this is a team that went 28-7 last year and returned plenty of talent to make up for his loss. That has been evident en route to a 2-0 start with an 83-70 victory over a very good Louisiana Tech team that went 27-7 last year, and an 85-63 triumph against an Akron team that went 26-7 a year ago. That's the same Akron team that beat North Dakota State 68-53 last season. The Gaels are playing tremendous team basketball with four players averaging 10.0 or more points per game. Brad Waldow is averaging 22.0 points and 5.0 rebounds, and he and Stephen Holt (16.0 ppg, 6.5 apg, 5.5 rpg) are the top two returnees from last year. Both are off to tremendous starts. James Walker III (12.0 ppg) and Beau Levesque (10.0 ppg) have also made key contributions thus far. One big x-factor in this game is how well Saint Mary's has shot free throws through the first two games. It is averaging 27 makes in 32 attempts per game for a free throw percentage of 85.4%. That is going to be huge all season for the Gaels considering how many more fouls the refs are calling this year than in the past. Meanwhile, North Dakota State went 12-of-21 (57.1%) from the charity stripe in its opening win over Viterbo. Saint Mary's is a perfect 9-0 ATS off a home win scoring 85 or more points over the last three seasons. It is coming back to win this this spot 73.7 to 56.2, or by an average of 17.5 points per game. Somehow, the Gaels are undervalued in the early going and I'll take advantage of it. Bet Saint Mary's Thursday. |
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11-13-13 | Pepperdine -1 v. UC Riverside | 69-66 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
15* CBB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Pepperdine -1
I fully expect Pepperdine to be improved this season with three starters back, including sophomore forward Stacy Davis. He averaged 11.2 points and 7.3 rebounds last year and was voted WCC Newcomer of the Year. Davis poured in 24 points on 9-of-13 shooting to lead Pepperdine to an 81-68 win over San Diego Christion in their opener. But the big surprise was center Brendan Lane, who finished with 12 points, 14 rebounds and 7 blocks. Lamond Murray Jr. added 13 points in the win. UC-Riverside went just 6-25 last season and is clearly in a world of hurt once again in 2013. It opened the season with an ugly 41-77 loss at San Diego State while shooting 30.8% from the floor. Riverside's average home attendance last year was 758, which means that they have very little home-court advantage. Pepperdine beat Riverside 62-40 last year as a 7.5-point home favorite. The Waves held the Highlanders to just 28.6% shooting in the win as not one player for Riverside scored in double figures. The Waves are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Pepperdine is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games. Riverside is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 home games. The Highlanders are 5-17-1 ATS in their last 23 non-conference games. Riverside is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take Pepperdine Wednesday. |
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11-12-13 | Kansas v. Duke -4.5 | 94-83 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
15* Kansas/Duke ESPN Tuesday Night BAILOUT on Duke -4.5
The Blue Devils are much better off to start the season than the Kansas Jayhawks. I fully expect them to blow the Jayhawks out of the building at the United Center in Chicago Tuesday. Freshman phenom Jabari Parker made an immediate impact with 22 points in the Blue Devils' 111-77 rout of Davidson in Friday's season opener. |
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11-12-13 | VCU +4.5 v. Virginia | 59-56 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
15* VCU/Virginia ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Virginia Commonwealth +4.5
Virginia Commonwealth is one of the best teams in the country this season. It has opened the season ranked in the Top 25 and for good reason. It showed off what it is capable of with a 96-58 home win over Illinois State on November 8, and I fully expect it to go into Virginia and win outright tonight. VCU returns three starters this season, including leading scoerers Juvonte Reddic (14.6 ppg, 8.1 rpg) and Treveon Graham (15.1 ppg, 5.8 rpg). Also back is Rob Brandenberg (10.4 ppg), Melvin Johnson (6.9 ppg) and Briante Weber (5.4 rpg). The Rams play a pressure defense that is unmatched by anyone in the country. They get after it for 40 minutes and force opponents into mistakes, which leads to easy buckets the other way for Shaka Smart's club. The Rams forced 22 turnovers in the opener against Illinois State. The Rams are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game. VCU is 4-1 ATS in its last five non-conference games. Virginia is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games overall. The Cavaliers are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Atlantic 10 foes. This is the best team in the Atlantic 10 in 2013, and it will show tonight. Bet VCU Tuesday. |
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11-12-13 | Hofstra +33 v. Louisville | 69-97 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Hofstra +33
This play is more of a fade of Louisville than a play on Hofstra. I realize the Pride don't have the talent to hang with Louisville, but they do have enough to stay within 33 points of this ridiculous spread. I am fading Louisville early in the season due to its reputation as the defending national champs. I believe it is way overvalued after losing its two most important players from last year in center Gorgui Dieng (9.8 ppg, 9.4 rpg, 2.5 bpg) and point guard Peyton Siva (10.0 ppg, 5.7 apg, 2.3 spg). I went against Louisville in its opener as a 22-point favorite against College of Charleston. That was a 48-45 game with six minutes remaining before the Cardinals used a ridiculous 22-3 run to close out the game to win 70-48. As you can see, that was a much closer game than the final score would indicate, but if you only saw the final score you wouldn't realize it. Hofstra has put up 82.0 points per game while opening the season 1-1 with a loss to Monmouth (84-88) and a win over Fairleigh Dickinson (80-58). It is also shooting 47.1% from the field while only averaging 11 turnovers per game. Taking care of the ball will be huge against the Cardinals. Hofstra is 18-5 ATS in road games after scoring 75 or more points in two straight games since 1997. Roll with Hofstra Tuesday. |
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11-11-13 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Davidson -12 | 81-77 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Davidson -12
Davidson went 26-8 last season and reached the NCAA Tournament. It returned senior forward De'Mon Brooks (13.7 ppg, 6.2 rpg) as well as experienced contributors such as point guard Tom Droney, small forward Chris Czerapowicz and shooting guard Tyler Kalinoski. Wisconsin Milwaukee finished in last place in the Horizon League with an 8-24 record overall and a 3-13 mark in conference play. While point guard Jordan Aaron (12.8 ppg, 3.9 apg conference play) is back, the Panthers return only one other starter from a team that struggled in every phase of the game. Davidson has set up a brutal non-conference schedule that features the likes of Duke, North Carolina, Virginia and Wichita State. After falling 77-111 to a Top-5 Duke team in the opener Saturday, and with Virginia on deck, Davidson knows it must take care of business in the rest of its non-conference games against weaker teams like this one if it wants to get back to the NCAA Tournament. Brooks had a solid game against Duke, pouring in 24 points and grabbing seven board while going 7-for-9 from the field. Droney also played well, scoring 16 points in the loss. I look for these two players to carry the load against the overmatched Panthers, who fell 62-66 at Loyola-Illinois in their opener. This is also a revenge game for Davidson, which lost at Milwaukee last year in one of its worst performances of the season. That's a big reason why the Wildcats will not be overlooking the Panthers tonight. Milwaukee is 0-7 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less over the last two seasons. Davidson is 6-0 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more over the last three years. The Wildcats are 11-1 ATS in home games after allowing 85 points or more since 1997. These three trends combine for a 24-1 system backing the Wildcats. Take Davidson Monday. |
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11-09-13 | College of Charleston +22 v. Louisville | 48-70 | Push | 0 | 5 h 45 m | Show | |
15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on College of Charleston +22
I almost always look to fade the champion of the previous NCAA Tournament early in the season the next year. That champ can almost never live up to the hype in the early going, and it has a hard time coming back hungry the following season. I believe Louisville will take a step back early before improving a ton late, which is the case almost every year for Rick Pitino and company. The Cardinals lost arguably their two best players in Peyton Siva (10.0 ppg, 5.7 apg, 2.3 spg) and Gorgui Dieng (9.8 ppg, 9.4 rpg, 2.5 bpg). Siva was the leader of the offense, while Dieng was the enforcer on defense. Charleston is going to make a run at the NCAA Tournament in 2013. It went 24-11 last year for its fourth straight 20-win season. With four starters back from that squad, this team will give Louisville a run for its money tonight. That includes junior guard Anthony Stitt (11.0 ppg, 3.2 apg) and junior center Adjehi Baru (9.8 ppg, 8.3 rpg). Charleston is 58-28 ATS as a road underdog or pick since 1997. Charleston is 19-6 ATS in its last 25 games as a road underdog of 10 or more points. The Cougars are 29-12-1 ATS in their last 42 Saturday games. They played their best basketball on the road last season, going 13-3 away from home. Bet College of Charleston Saturday. |
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11-08-13 | Maryland v. Connecticut -4.5 | 77-78 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 5 m | Show | |
15* Maryland/UConn 2013 CBB Season Opener on Connecticut -4.5
Connecticut once again has something to play for after failing to qualify for the NCAA tournament last season because of poor academic progress rates. The 18th-ranked Huskies are flying under the radar heading into the 2013-14 season due to not being eligible for the NCAA Tournament last year. They should be laying more than 4.5 points to Maryland in the opener. UConn went 20-10 last season but had to watch other teams battle for the title in the NCAA tournament. The Huskies are once again eligible for postseason play, and junior guard Ryan Boatright says they also are very hungry. "We know how it felt last year to put everything on the line every game and not get a chance to play for a ring like a lot of teams we watched in the tournament that we beat," he said. "It hurt watching the tournament. But, to have that pain stuck inside of us and to know that we've got a chance to win this year, it just motivates us." Boatright and backcourt running mate Shabazz Napier both passed up a chance at the NBA draft to return this season. They will be joined by the rest of the 2012-13 starters - Omar Calhoun, DeAndre Daniels and Tyler Olander. "We're going to be really great," said Daniels, who averaged more than 22 points over his last four games last season. "I feel like guys on this team are working even harder to try and win every game." Maryland loses its best player in 7-1 center Alex Len to the NBA. While it does have some nice experience coming back, this NIT team from last year simply does not have the talent to match up with Connecticut. Bet the Huskies Friday. |
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04-08-13 | Michigan v. Louisville -3.5 | Top | 76-82 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
20* Michigan/Louisville NCAA Championship No-Brainer on Louisville -3.5
The Louisville Cardinals will prove that they are the best team in college basketball and deserved of the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament tonight. I look for them to win and cover against overmatched Michigan in this one. The Cardinals just have something special going because of the injury to teammate Kevin Ware. They have really pulled closer together as a team, which helped them overcome a hard-fought game against Wichita State in the Final Four. They simply appear to be a team of destiny at this point. I believe that only having one day to prepare for their opponent will benefit Louisville more than Michigan in this one. That's because the Cardinals are a tougher team to prepare for as they are the best pressing team in the country. They are forcing an average of 18 turnovers/game this season. Louisville is 6-0 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 3.5 to 6 points over the last 2 seasons. The Cardinals are 7-0 ATS when playing their 2nd road game in 3 days over the last 2 seasons. Louisville is 7-0 ATS in road games after 4 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. These three trends combine for a 20-0 system backing the Cardinals. Bet Louisville Monday. |
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04-06-13 | Michigan v. Syracuse +2.5 | Top | 61-56 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 21 m | Show |
20* Michigan/Syracuse Final Four No-Brainer on Syracuse +2.5
I have been backing both Michigan and Syracuse throughout the NCAA Tournament with a lot of success thus far. Now, it's time to pick between the two, and I have no problem doing so considering this match-up really favors Syracuse. I believe the length of the Orange across the board is going to cause Michigan fits offensively, just as it has for every other team they have faced. In fact, Syracuse has held its first four opponents in the NCAA Tournament to just 45.8 points/game. Syracuse held the almighty Indiana Hoosiers to just 50 points on 34.0% shooting, and a good Marquette team to just 39 points on 22.6% shooting the past two rounds. Its defense is going to be the difference in this game. Most people believe that playing a zone defense means that you're forcing your opponent to try and make 3-pointers to beat you. Well, that's not the case for this Syracuse team, which defends the 3-ball as well as anyone in the country. The Orange only allow their opponents to make 28.2% of their 3-point shots on the season. That's huge because Michigan is one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the land at 38.5%. The Orange held Indiana, another great 3-point shooting team, to just 3-of-15 (20%) from distance. Jim Boeheim is 28-13 ATS as a neutral court underdog or pick as the coach of Syracuse. The Orange are 24-10 ATS as a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less or pick since 1997. Syracuse is 58-35 ATS in road games when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days since 1997. The Orange are 8-2 ATS after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half this season. They are winning in this spot by 23.7 points/game. Bet Syracuse Saturday. |
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04-04-13 | Iowa -2 v. Baylor | Top | 54-74 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
25* Big Ten vs. Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa Hawkeyes -2
The Iowa Hawkeyes have been undervalued all season, especially toward the end of the year. That's the case once again tonight as they take on the Baylor Bears in the NIT Championship. I have been saying throughout this tournament that Iowa is the best team in the NIT, and that will prove to be true as it destroys the overmatched Bears tonight. The Hawkeyes are a perfect 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games overall as oddsmakers have failed to give them the respect they deserve in 10 straight games, and you can make that 11 straight tonight. While Iowa has posted four double-digit victories in a row to reach the Championship Game, Baylor has escaped with a couple close wins against Arizona State (89-68) and BYU (76-70) to get here. Even its 11-point win over Providence (79-68) was a 3-point game with about 4 minutes to go. Common opponents are a great way to compare teams. Both Iowa and Baylor have faced two of the same teams this year in Iowa State and Northwestern. The Hawkeyes are 4-0 against those two teams while outscoring them by an average of 14.2 points/game. The Bears are 0-3 against those two teams, getting outscored by 5.7 points/game. Iowa is 14-1 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season. The Hawkeyes are 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Iowa is 9-0 ATS in its last 9 non-conference games. These three trends combine for a 33-1 (97%) system backing the Hawkeyes. Bet Iowa Thursday. |
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04-02-13 | Iowa -3 v. Maryland Terrapins | 71-60 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
15* Iowa/Maryland NIT ANNIHILATOR on Iowa -3
The Iowa Hawkeyes are the best team left in the NIT. They come from the Big Ten, which has obviously shown that it is the best conference in the NCAA Tournament. Iowa finished with a .500 record in Big Ten play this year. The Hawkeyes have been on a mission to prove that they belonged in the NCAA Tournament by winning the NIT. They continue that mission tonight while looking for their 4th straight dominant victory. Iowa has beaten Indiana State (68-52), Stony Brook (75-63) and Virginia (75-64) en route to the semifinals. That win against the Cavaliers came on the road, and that's the same Cavaliers team that beat Maryland TWICE during the regular season. Iowa is a perfect 9-0 ATS in its last 9 games overall. The Hawkeyes are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games. Iowa is 13-1 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season. The Hawkeyes are 6-0 ATS after scoring 75 points or more 2 straight games this season. These four trends combine for a 36-1 (97%) system backing the Hawkeyes. Take Iowa Tuesday. |
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04-02-13 | Brigham Young +3 v. Baylor | Top | 70-76 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
20* BYU/Baylor NIT Tuesday No-Brainer on BYU +3
The BYU Cougars are showing excellent value as a 3-point underdog to the Baylor Bears in the NIT Semifinals tonight. I fully expect the Cougars to win this game outright and reach to the Championship Game, but I'll take the points for some insurance. BYU (24-11) is one of the most underrated teams in the country. After posting double-digit home victories over Washington (90-79) and Mercer (90-71), it went on the road and knocked off Southern Miss (79-62) as a 5-point underdog in yet another blowout. The Cougars want revenge from a 64-79 loss at Baylor way back on December 21st in their first meeting of the season. "We're not so excited to play Baylor," BYU coach Dave Rose said. "We played Baylor in December and they handled us pretty well." This has been a much-improved Cougars team since that defeat. You'll get to witness three of the most underrated players in the country in Tyler Haws (21.6 PPG), Brandon Davies (17.8 PPG, 8.1 RPG) and Matt Carlino (11.3 PPG, 4.7 APG) take it to Baylor in this one. Baylor is 0-7 ATS versus good passing teams, averaging >=16 assists/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. The Bears are 0-7 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. The Cougars are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. These three trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing the Cougars. Bet BYU Tuesday. |
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03-31-13 | Michigan +3 v. Florida | Top | 79-59 | Win | 100 | 20 h 40 m | Show |
20* Michigan/Florida Elite 8 No-Brainer on Michigan +3
The Wolverines will be riding high following their amazing comeback victory over Kansas in the Sweet 16. After blowing out both South Dakota State (71-56) and VCU (78-53) in the first two rounds, they erased a late 14-point deficit to beat the Jayhawks 87-85 (OT). Florida has been very fortunate to be dealt the easiest schedule of all the teams left in the field. The Gators have drawn Northwestern State, Minnesota and Florida Gulf Coast to reach the Elite 8. Michigan is more battle-tested, and it will use its momentum from the Kansas victory to advance to the Final Four. The Wolverines are 8-1 ATS in all tournament games this season. Florida is 1-7 ATS after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread this season. The Gators are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Florida is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games following a win. Bet Michigan Sunday. |
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03-30-13 | Weber State v. Northern Iowa -4 | 59-56 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
15* College Insider Tournament ANNIHILATOR on Northern Iowa -4
The Northern Iowa Panthers are showing excellent value as only a 4-point home favorite over Weber State in the semifinals of the College Insider Tournament Saturday. I look for the Panthers to blow the opposition out of the building tonight. Northern Iowa is the best team left in this tournament. It has posted three straight double-digit victories over North Dakota, Illinois-Chicago and Bradley to reach the semis. Weber State won three straight at home as well to get here, but now it has to take its act on the road, which is a huge disadvantage. That's especially the case considering Northern Iowa is 16-3 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 13.0 points/game. That includes wins over NCAA Tournament teams like St. Mary's (82-73), Wichita State (57-52) and Creighton (61-54). Weber State has played a very easy schedule this season. In fact, you could make the argument that this is its toughest game of the year. A couple other tough games for them include a 55-65 road loss at Utah State, and a 68-78 home loss to BYU. Weber State is 0-7 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games since 1997. Northern Iowa is 6-0 ATS versus very good shooting teams - making >=48% of their shots over the last 2 seasons. The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. These three trends combine for a perfect 17-0 system backing UNI. Roll with Northern Iowa Saturday. |
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03-30-13 | Syracuse -4 v. Marquette | Top | 55-39 | Win | 100 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
20* Syracuse/Marquette Elite 8 No-Brainer on Syracuse -4
The Syracuse Orange should be a bigger favorite tonight over the Marquette Golden Eagles. Marquette is the most overrated team left in the field, while Syracuse is the most underrated. This is a Syracuse team that won three games in three days in the Big East Tournament before blowing a 15-point lead in the Championship Game to Louisville as it ran out of gas on the 4th day. It came in playing well, and it has continued in the NCAA Tournament. The Orange have knocked off Montana (81-34), California (66-60) and Indiana (61-50) by a combined 64 points. Meanwhile, Marquette is lucky to be here, having beaten Davidson (59-58) and Butler (74-72) by a combined 3 points in the first two rounds. This is revenge time for the Orange as they lost their only meeting with Marquette on the road by a final of 71-74 on February 25th. The Golden Eagles got all the calls in that game as they shot 35 free throws compared to Syracuse's 7. Syracuse is 27-10 ATS in road games off an upset win as an underdog since 1997. Marquette is 4-11 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins this season. You could certainly make the argument that the Orange are the best team left in the Big Dance right alongside Louisville. They prove it today. Bet Syracuse Saturday. |
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03-29-13 | Michigan State v. Duke -2 | 61-71 | Win | 100 | 51 h 24 m | Show | |
15* Michigan State/Duke Sweet 16 Friday No-Brainer on Duke -2
The Duke Blue Devils are the superior team in this match-up with the Michigan State Wolverines. This is a very evenly-matched game coaching-wise with Coach K and Tom Izzo going at it, but Coach K clearly will have the better talent on the floor, and that will show Friday night. The key factor here is the health of Ryan Kelly, who has been the key to the Blue Devils' success this season. In fact, Duke is a sensational 20-1 in all games that Kelly has played in this year. He is clearly the motor that makes this team run. One look at the history between these teams and it's easy to see that Coach K has not only out-coached Izzo, but he's also had the better talent. In fact, Duke is 6-1 in its last 7 meetings with Michigan State dating back to 1998. All six of those victories have come by 5 points or more. Duke is 7-0 ATS in road games after a non-conference game this season. The Spartans are 6-16-1 ATS in their last 23 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. The Blue Devils are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games. Roll with Duke Friday. |
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03-29-13 | Michigan +2 v. Kansas | Top | 87-85 | Win | 100 | 49 h 5 m | Show |
25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Michigan +2
The Michigan Wolverines represent my strongest release of the entire 2013 NCAA Tournament Friday when they take on the Kansas Jayhawks in the Sweet 16. It's easy to see that the Big Ten is the best conference in the country, and it should not be an underdog to Kansas because of it. In fact, the Big Ten has sent four teams to the Sweet 16 compared to just one for the Big 12. Kansas even had to escape with a 64-57 win over Western Kentucky as a 21-point favorite in the opening round, and erase a 9-point first half deficit against UNC, just to get here. The Jayhawks were even gifted home-court advantage in the first two rounds as they had to only travel 40 miles from campus over to Kansas City. With home-court advantage gone, and playing a much tougher opponent, Kansas' luck runs out tonight. Michigan came into the NCAA Tournament undervalued due to a rough stretch to close out the season. They have proven that with a 71-56 victory over South Dakota State as a 12-point favorite, and a 78-73 blowout of VCU as a 3.5-point favorite. Once again, the Wolverines are undervalued tonight as an underdog when they are clearly the superior team. Michigan is 7-1 ATS in all tournament games this season. The Wolverines are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big 12 opponents. The Jayhawks are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 vs. Big Ten. Take Michigan Friday. |
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03-28-13 | Marquette v. Miami (Fla) -5 | Top | 71-61 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 45 m | Show |
20* Sweet 16 Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Miami -5
The Miami Hurricanes should be a much heavier favorite over the Marquette Golden Eagles tonight. They got the test they needed from Illinois in the Round of 32, and made all the big plays down the stretch to get through. I full expect the Hurricanes to roll to a blowout victory over a Marquette team that doesn't even deserve to be in the Sweet 16. In fact, it has won its first two games against Davidson (59-58) and Butler (74-72) by a combined 3 points. The Golden Eagles' luck runs out in the Sweet 16. Miami has been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season. That's evident by the fact that it is 21-8 ATS in all lined games this year. Despite winning the ACC regular season and tournament titles, this team is still undervalued. The Hurricanes are 43-18-1 ATS in their last 62 non-conference games. Miami is 43-19-4 ATS in its last 66 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Golden Eagles are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Marquette is 3-11 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins this season. The Hurricanes are 15-3 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game this season. Bet Miami Thursday. |
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03-27-13 | Providence +9 v. Baylor | Top | 68-79 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
25* NIT GAME OF THE YEAR on Providence +9
The Providence Friars are showing excellent value as a 9-point underdog to the Baylor Bears in the NIT Quarterfinals tonight. In fact, they represent my strongest release for the entire 2013 NIT Tournament. Baylor is getting too much respect here due to the extra rest it has had leading up to this game. With a trip to Madison Square Garden on the line, Providence won't show any signs of fatigue despite playing two nights ago in a 77-68 home victory over Robert Morris. The Big 12 has clearly been the most overrated conference in the country all season. That has been evident in the NCAA Tournament as only Kansas has made it through to the Sweet 16. The Big East has three teams in the Sweet 16 to compare. Baylor is 1-8 ATS after a win by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. The Bears are 4-17 ATS after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite over the last 2 seasons. The Bears are 10-21 ATS in their last 31 games following a S.U. win. Bet Providence Wednesday. |
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03-27-13 | Brigham Young +6 v. Southern Miss | 79-62 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
15* NIT Wednesday ANNIHILATOR on BYU +6
The BYU Cougars should not be catching points against the Southern Miss Eagles tonight. At 23-11 on the season, BYU is one of the most underrated teams in the country. I look for them to lay it all on the line tonight to try and get to Madison Square Garden. No team has been as dominant as BYU in the NIT thus far. It beat Washington 90-79 at home before dominating Mercer 90-71. This is a very balanced team that can beat you inside and out. Tyler Haws (21.5 PPG), Brandon Davies (18.0 PPG) and Matt Carlino (11.2 PPG) form one of the best trios in the country. Southern Miss has not been as impressive thus far with a 78-71 victory over Charleston Southern as an 11.5-point favorite, and a 63-52 win over LA Tech as an 8-point favorite. Having just one day to prepare for this complex, up-tempo BYU team simply isn't enough. The Golden Eagles are 0-6 ATS versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots after 15+ games this season. Southern Miss is 0-6 ATS in home games after playing a game where both teams score 65 points or less over the last 2 seasons. The Golden Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Wednesday games. The Cougars are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Conference USA. BYU is 3-0-1 ATS in its last 4 games vs. a team with a winning record. These five trends combine for a perfect 23-0 system backing the Cougars. Take BYU Wednesday. |
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03-27-13 | Iowa +4.5 v. Virginia Cavaliers | 75-64 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
15* Iowa/Virginia NIT Wednesday No-Brainer on Iowa +4.5
The Iowa Hawkeyes are the best team left in the NIT in my opinion. The Big Ten has proven to be the toughest conference in the country with four teams through to the Sweet 16 in the NCAA Tournament. Iowa is 23-12 on the season with a .500 record in Big Ten play. This team is even better than its record would indicate because it has suffered so many close losses this year. That includes losses to Indiana (65-69), Michigan State (59-62), Purdue (65-62), Minnesota (59-62), Wisconsin (79-74), Nebraska (70-74) and Michigan State (56-59). As you can see, the Hawkeyes have SEVEN Big Ten losses by FOUR POINTS OR LESS. Iowa is 12-1 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season. The Hawkeyes are 6-0 ATS when the total is 129.5 or less this season. Iowa is 8-0 ATS in its last 8 games overall. The Hawkeyes are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. Iowa is 6-0 ATS after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite this season. These five trends combine for a 39-1 system backing the Hawkeyes. Roll with Iowa Wednesday. |
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03-26-13 | Bradley +11 v. Northern Iowa | 77-90 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
15* College Basketball GAME OF THE NIGHT on Bradley +11
The Bradley Braves get the call tonight as a double-digit road underdog to the Northern Iowa Panthers. These are two familiar foes as they both come from the Missouri Valley Conference, and there's no way the Panthers should be favored this heavily because of it. I have no doubt that Northern Iowa is overvalued here due to its two victories over Bradley in the regular season. UNI won the first meeting 84-53 at home on January 12th, and the second meeting 68-65 on the road on February 10th. The Braves will have serious revenge in mind, while the Panthers will have a hard time getting motivated to beat the same team three times. This play falls into a system that is 116-58 (66.7%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road underdogs of 10 or more points (BRADLEY) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team. Northern Iowa is 2-10 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons. Bradley is 23-13 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. The Panthers are 21-39 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points since 1997. Take Bradley Thursday. |
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03-25-13 | Louisiana Tech +8 v. Southern Miss | 52-63 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
15* LA Tech/Southern Miss NIT BAILOUT on Louisiana Tech +7.5
The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs are one of the most underrated teams in the entire country. They put together a 27-6 season and I have no doubt that this team is better than several squads in the NCAA Tournament. They are out to prove it in the NIT, and they are off to a damn good start in doing so. They won at Florida State 71-66 as a 3-point underdog in their opener to pick up a big road win. I fully expect them to win outright tonight as well, but I'm taking the points for some insurance. Southern Miss doesn't even want to be playing in the NIT after narrowly missing the NCAA Tournament after a double-OT loss to Memphis in the Conference USA Championship Game. That was evident when the Golden Eagles only beat Charleston Southern 78-71 at home as an 11.5-point favorite in their NIT opener. These teams actually met once already this season way back on December 8th. Louisiana Tech beat Southern Miss 65-55 at home as a 4.5-point favorite. The Bulldogs limited the Golden Eagles to just 33.3% shooting while forcing 25 turnovers in the victory. The Bulldogs are 30-14-2 ATS in their last 46 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Golden Eagles are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Southern Miss is 1-8-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. LA Tech is 8-1 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days this season. Take Louisiana Tech Monday. |
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03-25-13 | Mercer v. Brigham Young -7 | Top | 71-90 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
20* NIT GAME OF THE NIGHT on BYU -7
The BYU Cougars should be a much heavier favorite tonight over the Mercer Bears. The Cougars are 16-3 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by a whopping 14.3 points/game. Mercer comes in getting way too much respect from oddsmakers for its 75-67 victory at Tennessee in its first NIT game. It caught the Volunteers in a huge letdown spot as they did not even want to be playing in the NIT after narrowly missing the NCAA Tournament field. BYU is more than happy to be playing in the NIT, and it wants to get to Madison Square Garden. The Cougars proved that with a 90-79 home victory over a very good Washington team as a 6-point favorite in the opening round. This play falls into a system that is 73-33 (68.9%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BYU) - good shooting team (45-47.5%) against an excellent defensive team (<=40%) after 15+ games, in a game involving two good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's). BYU is 110-69 ATS as a home favorite or pick since 1997. The Cougars are 39-18 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points since 1997. Bet BYU Monday. |
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03-24-13 | Illinois v. Miami (Fla) -6.5 | Top | 59-63 | Loss | -108 | 30 h 22 m | Show |
20* Sunday Round of 32 No-Doubt Rout on Miami -6.5
The Miami Hurricanes have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season. That's evident by the fact that they are 28-6 SU and an incredible 21-7 ATS in all games this year. Even after winning the ACC regular season and tournament titles, the Hurricanes still aren't getting the respect they deserve from oddsmakers. They should have been a 20-plus point favorite against Pacific in the Round of 64 as they cruised to a 78-49 victory as a 12-point favorite. Now, they should be laying double-digits against an overrated Illinois team that is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers. The Illini are one of the most inconsistent teams left in the NCAA Tournament. They rely way too heavily on the 3-point shot. Illinois attempts 24 3-pointers per game, making just 32.3% of them. That's why they are so inconsistent. They'll be up against a solid defense in Miami that allows just 60.3 points/game and 39.7% shooting, including 32.7% from the 3-point stripe. Miami is 14-1 ATS after a win by 10 points or more this season. The Fighting Illini are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game. Illinois is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games following a win. The Hurricanes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games. These four tends combine for a 26-1 system backing the Hurricanes. Bet Miami Sunday. |
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03-23-13 | Wichita State v. Gonzaga -6 | Top | 76-70 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 39 m | Show |
20* Wichita State/Gonzaga Saturday Night BAILOUT on Gonzaga -6
The No. 1 seed Gonzaga Bulldogs should be a much heavier favorite over the No. 9 seed Wichita State Shockers. The reason they're not is because this line is simply an overreaction from what happened in the first round. Gonzaga struggled to beat Southern, eventually winning 64-58 despite being a 22.5-point favorite. Wichita State crushed Pittsburgh 73-55 despite being a 4.5-point underdog. Clearly, oddsmakers anticipated the betting public would be high on Wichita State and low on Gonzaga because of their performances in the round of 64. That has created some excellent line value for us, and I'm going to take full advantage. Gonzaga is one of the best teams in the country, but it simply had an 'off' day. I look for the Bulldogs to rebound with a strong performance Saturday in front of what will be a home crowd for them in Salt Lake City, UT. Gonzaga is now 32-2 on the season. Of those 32 wins, 24 have come by 7 points or more. Wichita State is getting too much respect here for its win over an overrated Pittsburgh team. Remember, this is the same Shockers team that has losses to Evansville (twice), Indiana State, Northern Iowa, Southern Illinois and Creighton (twice) this season. The Bulldogs are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS loss. Gonzaga is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 neutral site games. Wichita State is 4-18 ATS as a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less or pick since 1997. Take Gonzaga Saturday. |
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03-23-13 | Harvard +10 v. Arizona | 51-74 | Loss | -107 | 30 h 58 m | Show | |
15* Saturday Round of 32 Line Mistake on Harvard +10
Harvard remains undervalued even after its 68-62 victory over New Mexico as a 10.5-point underdog in the Round of 64. The Crimson should not be catching double-digits against Arizona, which is overvalued due to its blowout 81-64 victory against an overrated Belmont team Thursday. The Crimson have had a lot of luck out West this year, playing some very good team tough. It won at California 67-62 as an 11-point underdog, and lost at St. Mary's in the closing seconds 69-70 as a 12-point underdog. Both of those teams are playing in the NCAA Tournament. Those weren't the Crimson's only impressive showings on the road, either. They lost at UMass 64-67 as an 11-point underdog, won at Boston College 79-63 as a 4-point dog, lost at UConn 49-57 as a 9-point dog, and lost at Memphis 50-60 as a 13.5-point dog. As you can see, Harvard is certainly battle-tested and proven heading into this one. Harvard is 7-0 ATS in road games after allowing 65 points or less 2 straight games this season. The Crimson are 6-0 ATS in road games after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. Harvard is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 non-conference games. The Crimson are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Harvard is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. These five trends combine for a perfect 29-0 system backing the Crimson. Roll with Harvard Saturday. |
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03-23-13 | Virginia Commonwealth v. Michigan -2.5 | Top | 53-78 | Win | 100 | 24 h 14 m | Show |
20* VCU/Michigan Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Michigan -2.5
The Michigan Wolverines should be a much bigger favorite in the Round of 32 against VCU. This line is simply an overreaction from VCU's blowout victory over Akron in the opening round. I took Michigan in the Round of 64 in a blowout victory over South Dakota State. This team is still undervalued because it entered the NCAA Tournament undervalued due to a tough finish that included a loss to Penn State, a heartbreaking 71-72 loss to Indiana to cost itself a Big Ten title, and a loss to Wisconsin in the conference tournament. Remember, this was the No. 1 team in the country at one point after a 20-1 start that included wins over fellow NCAA Tournament contenders Pittsburgh, Kansas State, NC State, Minnesota and Illinois. Michigan will have home-court advantage in this game as well as this contest will be played in Auburn Hills, MI. VCU loves to press which can get teams WITHOUT GOOD GUARDS out of their rhythm offensively. Well, Michigan has some of the best guards in the country in Trey Burke and company, and it will eat VCU's press alive. This is simply a terrible match-up for the Rams because of it. The Rams are 0-6 ATS versus excellent ball handling teams - committing <=12 turnovers/game this season. This trend just goes to show how VCU struggles against teams like the Wolverines who can take care of the ball. Bet Michigan Saturday. |
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03-22-13 | Minnesota v. UCLA +3 | 83-63 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 30 m | Show | |
15* Minnesota/UCLA Friday Night BAILOUT on UCLA +3
The No. 6 UCLA Bruins should not be an underdog to the No. 11 Minnesota Golden Gophers. This is another case where the Big Ten is being overvalued simply because almost everyone is proclaiming it as the best conference in the country. Minnesota went just 8-11 in all Big Ten games this season and still made the NCAA Tournament. They also lost badly to Duke 89-71 on a neutral court in non-conference action. This team was so inconsistent all year with losses to the likes of Northwestern, Iowa, Nebraska and Purdue within the conference. A big reason UCLA is undervalued here is the fact that they'll be without second-leading scorer Jordan Adams (foot) for the rest of the season. However, this team has plenty of talent to make up for his absence, and they have been preparing to play without him, so it won't be a shock to them. The Bruins went 25-9 this season, including 13-5 in the improved Pac-12 to capture the regular season title. This is a team that beat Missouri out of conference, and fellow NCAA Tournament contenders Cal, Colorado, and Arizona (three times) within the Pac-12. Minnesota is 1-14 ATS in road games after game - where they allowed a shooting pct. of 33% or less since 1997. The Gophers are 0-6 ATS in road games after 5 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers this season. The Bruins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss. These three trends combine for a 24-1 system backing the Bruins. Bet UCLA Friday. |
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03-22-13 | Oklahoma +3 v. San Diego St | 55-70 | Loss | -106 | 35 h 56 m | Show | |
15* Oklahoma/SDSU Friday Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma +3
The Mountain West Conference is extremely overrated this season. That is certainly reflected in this line as San Diego State is favored over Oklahoma when it really shouldn't be despite being the lower seed. San Diego State went just 9-7 in the MWC during the regular season before falling to New Mexico 60-50 in the conference tournament. It lost to Syracuse and Arizona on a neutral court in non-conference play in by far its two toughest games outside the MWC. I just love this veteran Oklahoma team that returned five starters under second-year head coach Lon Kruger, who is a proven winner. The Sooners played in a much tougher conference in the Big 12 while going 11-7 in league play. They beat the likes of Oklahoma State, Kansas and Iowa State this year. Oklahoma has been underrated all season, going a super 17-10 ATS in all games this year. The Sooners are 7-1 ATS after 4 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers this season. Oklahoma is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 vs. Mountain West opponents. The Sooners are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Aztecs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall. SDSU is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with Oklahoma Friday. |
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03-22-13 | La Salle v. Kansas State -5 | Top | 63-61 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 42 m | Show |
20* Friday Round of 64 Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Kansas State -5
This line is an absolute gift from oddsmakers. First and foremost, this game will be played at the Sprint Center in Kansas City, MO so the Kansas State Wildcats (27-7) will have a huge home-court advantage over La Salle. The reason this line is so small is because the betting public saw La Salle beat Boise State 80-71 in the "first four" by shooting lights out from the field. Folks, that's not going to happen again against a much better defensive team in Kansas State. In fact, La Salle went 31-of-49 from the field including 11-of-21 from 3-point range against Boise State. That 63% shooting percentage was the Explorers' best mark in any game this season. And they STILL couldn't put Boise State away completely. Kansas State only gives up 60.4 points/game on 41.8% shooting on the season. That's impressive when you consider their opponents combined to average 69.0 points/game and 43.8% shooting in all games this year. That's getting it done defensively folks. The Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss. The Explorers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. Big 12 opponents. La Salle is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Wildcats are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Atlantic 10 foes. Take Kansas State Friday. |
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03-22-13 | Cincinnati +3.5 v. Creighton | 63-67 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 11 m | Show | |
15* Friday Round of 64 Line Mistake on Cincinnati +3.5
The Cincinnati Bearcats should not be an underdog to the Creighton Blue Jays in this Round of 64 match-up Friday. While the Bearcats are the higher seed at No. 10, they are the better team in this one. The Missouri Valley Conference was way down this year, which is why I really believe that Creighton is overrated. The Blue Jays had losses to Drake, Indiana State, Illinois State Wichita State and Northern Iowa within the conference. They also lost to St Mary's and Boise State in two of their toughest non-conference games. Meanwhile, Cincinnati played in the much tougher Big East Conference, which has it more battle-tested heading into this one. It also beat the likes of IOwa State, Oregon, Alabama and Xavier out of conference. Cincinnati will have the home-court edge as well as it is much closer to Philadelphia, PA than Creighton. The Bearcats are 12-1 ATS in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons. Cincinnati is 12-2 ATS in road games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons. The Bluejays are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games. The Bearcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games. Take Cincinnati Friday. |
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03-22-13 | Pacific v. Miami (Fla) -12 | Top | 49-78 | Win | 100 | 27 h 21 m | Show |
20* Friday Round of 64 No-Doubt Rout on Miami -12
The Miami Hurricanes have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season. That's evident by the fact that they are 27-6 and an incredible 20-7 ATS in all games this year. Even after winning the ACC regular season and tournament titles, the Hurricanes still aren't getting the respect they deserve from oddsmakers. They should be a 20-plus point favorite over Pacific in the Round of 64. One look at Pacific's performance in non-conference play, and it's easy to see that this team will not be able to compete with Miami. The Tigers have losses to Fresno State, Oral Robers, California (58-78), Gonzaga (67-85), Santa Clara and St. Mary's (46-74). The Tigers are 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 neutral site games. The Hurricanes are 42-17-1 ATS in their last 60 non-conference games. Miami is 7-0 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival this season. The Hurricanes are 13-1 ATS after a win by 10 points or more this season. These last two trends combine for a 20-1 system backing the Hurricanes. Bet Miami Friday. |
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03-21-13 | Belmont v. Arizona -4 | 64-81 | Win | 100 | 23 h 16 m | Show | |
15* Thursday Round of 64 Line Mistake on Arizona -4
The Arizona Wildcats should be a much bigger favorite over Belmont Thursday in the Round of 64. The public believes that Belmont has an excellent shot of pulling off the upset, which has kept this line smaller than it should be. I'm not buying it. Arizona is certainly the better team in this one, and that will show on the court Thursday. The Wildcats went 25-7 this season against a much tougher schedule than 26-6 Belmont faced. They got off to a 14-0 start that included wins over fellow NCAA Tournament teams in Florida, Miami, San Diego State and Colorado. This team is the real deal, yet they aren't getting treated like it. Belmont is a popular upset pick, but the fact of the matter is that this team doesn't have the talent to compete with a loaded roster like the one that Arizona brings to the table. That was evident in non-conference losses to Northeastern (74-71), VCU (65-75), Kansas (89-60) and UCF (66-63). Another huge advantage is the fact that this game will be played out West in Salt Lake City, UT. There's no question that the Wildcats will have a big home-court edge in this one folks, though they don't need it to destroy the Bruins. The Bruins are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games. Belmont is 3-12 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. The Wildcats are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 NCAA Tournament games. The Bruins are 0-7 ATS in road games versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game after 15+ games since 1997. Belmont is 0-6 ATS in March games over the last 2 seasons. The Bruins are 0-6 ATS after 3 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. These three trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing the Wildcats. Roll with Arizona Thursday. |
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03-21-13 | South Dakota St v. Michigan -11 | 56-71 | Win | 100 | 23 h 0 m | Show | |
15* SDSU/Michigan Thursday No-Brainer on Michigan -11
The Michigan Wolverines are way undervalued heading into the NCAA Tournament due to a poor finish to the season. They had a chance to share the Big 12 regular season title, but lost to Indiana in a last-second heartbreaker 72-71. Michigan would go on to beat Penn State before falling to Wisconsin in the Big Ten Tournament. That has given it some extra time to get back to the practice court and get back to the basics. Remember, this was the No. 1 team in the country at one point after a 20-1 start that included wins over fellow NCAA Tournament contenders Pittsburgh, Kansas State, NC State, Minnesota and Illinois. South Dakota State (25-9) will be no match for Michigan in this one. That's evident with the fact that two of their losses came to fellow NCAA Tournament teams Minnesota (88-64) and Belmont (76-49) in blowout fashion. Not only is Michigan undervalued due to a poor finish, but it will also have a huge home-court advantage in this one to try and get back on track. This game will be played in Auburn Hills, MI, so you can certainly say that the Wolverines have gotten the luck of the draw here. They will have a big following Thursday night, and I look for these players to feed off of that. The Wolverines are 22-4-1 (85%) ATS in their last 27 Thursday games. Michigan is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 neutral site games. The Wolverines are 19-9 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. Take Michigan Thursday. |
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03-21-13 | Southern v. Gonzaga -21.5 | 58-64 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 30 m | Show | |
15* Thursday Round of 64 Major Mismatch on Gonzaga -21.5
The Gonzaga Bulldogs will roll to a 22-plus point victory Thursday over the Southern University Jaguars. The Bulldogs will have home-court advantage in the West Region as this game will be played in Salt Lake City, UT which is only several reasons I like them to cover this big number. The biggest reason I'm backing the Bulldogs is the fact that Southern University played one of the easiest schedules you will ever see, and it still managed to lose nine games this year. It only played one NCAA Tournament team in Iowa State, losing 59-82 on the road. It also had double-digit losses to lowly Nebraska and TCU, which are bottom feeders in the Big Ten and Big 12, respectively. As you can see, Gonzaga is by far the best team that Southern has faced this season. What's most impressive about Gonzaga's 31-2 record heading into the NCAA Tournament is the fact that 13 of those 31 wins came by 22 or more points. That includes victories over West Virginia (84-50) and Oklahoma (72-47). Plus, Southern is one of the weakest opponents that the Bulldogs have faced all year. The Bulldogs are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games. Gonzaga is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Bulldogs are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. These three trends combine for a perfect 13-0 system backing the Bulldogs. Bet Gonzaga Thursday. |
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03-21-13 | Davidson v. Marquette -3 | Top | 58-59 | Loss | -106 | 19 h 6 m | Show |
20* Thursday Round of 64 No-Doubt Rout on Marquette -3
Davidson has been one of the most popular upset picks in the 2013 NCAA Tournament. As a result, Marquette is only a 3-point favorite over the Wildcats. I believe there is a ton of value in backing the Golden Eagles in the Round of 64 Thursday because of it. Davidson comes in way overvalued due to its 17-game winning streak heading into the NCAA Tournament. This team really hasn't beaten anyone of any significance during this streak. A look at its non-conference resume tells a different story. The Wildcats have losses to New Mexico, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Gonzaga, Charlotte, Drexel and Duke. They really don't have a quality non-conference win unless you want to count Vanderbilt, West Virginia and Richmond. I'm not counting them. Marquette has been underrated all season. It tied shared the Big East regular season title with Louisville and Georgetown with a 14-4 mark. This team also has a solid non-conference win over Wisconsin (60-50). Getting the Golden Eagles as only a 3-point favorite is an absolute gift. The Golden Eagles are a perfect 9-0 ATS off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons. They are coming back to win in this spot by an average of 11.6 points/game. The Wildcats are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 non-conference games. Davidson is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take Marquette Thursday. |
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03-21-13 | Saint Marys CA v. Memphis +1.5 | Top | 52-54 | Win | 100 | 19 h 31 m | Show |
25* Round of 64 GAME OF THE YEAR on Memphis +1.5
The Memphis Tigers represent my strongest play in the Round of 64 for the 2013 NCAA Tournament. They should not be an underdog to the Saint Mary's Gaels in this one folks. Memphis gets no respect despite its 30-4 record this season. That's because many believe that the Tigers didn't pick up any significant non-conference wins, but I beg to differ. They won at Tennessee 85-80 as a 2.5-point underdog. Sure, they lost to Minnesota, VCU and Louisville, but those aren't really bad losses. The Tigers are the most athletic team in the entire NCAA Tournament. I believe that athleticism will prove to be too much for Saint Mary's to handle. The Tigers come into this game having won 24 of their last 25 games overall. I don't care who they have beaten during this stretch, that's impressive to say the least. Saint Mary's is lacking quality wins as well. It has losses to Pacific, Georgia Tech and Northern Iowa this season. Its biggest wins have come against BYU and Creighton, which is far from impressive. This team is simply getting too much respect for its 67-54 win over an overrated Middle Tennessee State team in the first round on Tuesday. I actually had the Gaels picked in that contest, but I'll gladly fade them as they take a huge step up in competition here. Memphis has a big edge in rest and preparation as it was clearly getting ready for Saint Mary's or Middle Tennessee on Monday and Tuesday, while the Gaels had to get ready for the Blue Raiders. Saint Mary's is 1-7 ATS when playing its 2nd game in 3 days this season. The Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet Memphis Thursday. |
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03-20-13 | La Salle v. Boise State -1.5 | Top | 80-71 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
20* La Salle/Boise State TruTV No-Brainer on Boise State -1.5
I fully expect Boise State to blow La Salle out of the building tonight. The talent level between these two teams is far and away in the Broncos' favor. I look for that to show on the court in this one. Boise State is 21-10 on the season and well deserving of an NCAA Tournament bid. It played a tough non-conference schedule that featured a 70-74 loss at Michigan State as a 15.5-point underdog, and an 83-70 win at Creighton as a 13-point dog. It also played in the tough Mountain West which features three other NCAA Tournament teams in New Mexico, SDSU and UNLV. While La Salle has a better record at 21-9, it's a bit inflated due to a weaker non-conference schedule. The Explorers are not playing well heading into the big dance, getting blown out 54-78 at Saint Louis, and 58-69 on a neutral court against Butler in their last two games. One big factor in deciding the outcome of this game is kind of going unnoticed. That's the injury to La Salle center Steve Zack, who is out with a foot injury. Zack leads the team in blocks (36) and is second in rebounding (6.4 RPG). This is a small Explorers team as it is, and without Zack, they are going to get killed on the boards and in paint scoring. The Explorers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Boise State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games overall. The Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss. Boise State is 7-1 ATS after playing a game as an underdog this season. Bet Boise State Wednesday. |
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03-19-13 | Middle Tennessee St v. Saint Marys CA -2.5 | 54-67 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
15* MTSU/Saint Mary's TruTV No-Brainer on Saint Mary's -3
The Saint Mary's Gaels certainly deserve to be in the NCAA Tournament. The Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders, on the other hand, do not. That's evident when you look at the strength of schedule that these teams have faced. St. Mary's is 27-6 on the season with three of its losses coming against current No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, Gonzaga. Its other three losses all came away from home to Pacific, Georgia Tech and Northern Iowa, which are three quality teams. The Gaels have beaten NCAA Tournament teams Creighton and Harvard, and they have two wins over a very good BYU team as well. While Middle Tennessee State is 28-5 on the season, a closer look shows that it really hasn't beaten anyone special. Its five losses have come to Florida (45-66), Akron (77-82), Belmont (49-64), Arkansas State (60-66) and Florida International (57-61). What the committee apparently considering its significant wins were vs. Ole Miss (65-62), at UCF (75-61) and vs. Vanderbilt (56-52). I really don't see a quality win there anywhere. The Gaels are a perfect 19-0 SU in their last 19 games against teams other than Gonzaga dating back to December 27th. They are more battle-tested heading into the big dance, and as a result they will be more prepared to beat a team like Middle Tennessee State tonight. I believe that St. Mary's is the second-best team that the Blue Raiders have faced all season, and they won't be ready for it. MTSU is 0-6 ATS in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game this season. The Blue Raiders are 0-7 ATS in road games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. The Blue Raiders are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games. These three trends combine for a perfect 16-0 system backing the Gaels. Take St. Mary's Tuesday. |
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03-19-13 | Northeastern +12 v. Alabama | Top | 43-62 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
20* NIT GAME OF THE NIGHT on Northeastern +12
Northeastern is showing excellent value as a double-digit underdog to Alabama Tuesday night in the opening round of the NIT. I'll gladly take advantage and back the Huskies in a game that I believe they can win outright. Alabama comes into the NIT in a poor state of mind. After beating Tennessee in the SEC Tournament, it thought it had a legitimate shot to be playing in the NCAA Tournament. It lost to Florida in the next round and was left out by the committee. The Crimson Tide likely don't even want to be here. Northeastern (20-12), on the other hand, is ecstatic to be playing in the NIT after losing in its conference tournament to James Madison. The Huskies are one of the most underrated teams in the country. Of their 12 losses, only two came by more than 11 points. Those were a 63-83 loss at UAB, and a 57-70 loss to James Madison on a neutral court. What I love most about Northeastern is the fact that it has played its best basketball on the road this season. In fact, it is just 7-8 at home this year, and an incredible 13-4 on the road. The Huskies will not be intimidated by Alabama's home crowd one bit tonight. This play falls into a system that is 28-7 (80%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet on underdogs of 10 or more points (NORTHEASTERN) - good 3PT shooting team (>=36.5%) against an average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) after 15+ games, after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher. Alabama is 0-6 ATS vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=72% of their attempts over the last 2 seasons. Northeastern is 7-1 ATS as a road underdog or pick this season. The Crimson Tide are 2-10 ATS as a home favorite or pick this season. The Huskies are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS loss, and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet Northeastern Tuesday. |
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03-17-13 | Wisconsin v. Ohio State -1.5 | Top | 43-50 | Win | 100 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
25* Big Ten Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Ohio State -1.5
The Ohio State Buckeyes made it all the way to the Big Ten Championship in 2012 before falling to Michigan State 64-68. They aren't going to let themselves come up short again in 2013. I look for them to roll to victory over the Wisconsin Badgers, who are getting too much respect from oddsmakers here. Ohio State has been playing its best basketball of the season over the past month. It is a perfect 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall, making backers a killing. Somehow, the Buckeyes remain undervalued in the Big Ten title game as they'll deliver the goods once again. Wisconsin is simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers for its wins over Michigan and Indiana to get here. Sure, those are two very good teams, but Wisconsin matches up very well with them. Both Indiana and Michigan are offensive-minded, soft teams. Ohio State, on the other hand, is a gritty, defensive team similar to the Badgers. I just believe that Ohio State does it better, especially of late. This play falls into a system that is 24-5 (82.8%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OHIO ST) - average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG) after 15+ games, after allowing 60 points or less 3 straight games. Wisconsin is 2-10 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season. Ohio State is 11-1 ATS in road games after a combined score of 125 points or less 3 straight games since 1997. The Buckeyes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Bet Ohio State Sunday. |
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03-17-13 | Mississippi +11 v. Florida | 66-63 | Win | 100 | 3 h 8 m | Show | |
15* Ole Miss/Florida SEC Championship No-Brainer on Ole Miss +11
The Ole Miss Rebels should not be catching double-digits in the SEC Championship against the Florida Gators. This team came in knowing it needed to at least make it to the SEC Championship to go on to play in the NCAA Tournament, and it has played its best basketball of the season under these tough circumstances. I look for Ole Miss to try and take the decision out of the NCAA Tournament committee's hands by trying to upset the Gators this afternoon. It has won four straight coming in, including victories over Alabama and Missouri. It will want revenge from a 64-78 loss at Florida on February 2nd as a 17.5-point underdog. On a neutral court this time around, I look for the Rebels to stay within single-digits and possibly pulling off the upset. Florida continues to be overvalued due to its torrid start to the season. It was literally killing teams through the first few months, but that hasn't been the case over the past month and a half. In fact, the Gators are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Once again, they remain overvalued as a double-digit favorite in the SEC Championship. Ole Miss is 8-1 ATS versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots this season. The Rebels are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog of 10 or more points. The Gators are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings dating back to 2008. Take Ole Miss Sunday. |
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03-16-13 | Syracuse +5 v. Louisville | 61-78 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
15* Syracuse/Louisville Big East Championship Side on Syracuse +5
This will be the final season for the Syracuse Orange in the Big East. They are making the most of it by giving it one hell of a final run. I look for Jim Boeheim's squad to complete the run by knocking off Louisville in the Big East Championship Game, but I'll take the points for some insurance. I've been saying since the start of the Big East Tournament that Syracuse is the best No. 5 seed in any conference tournament in the country. That has proven to be the case as it has knocked off Seton Hall, Pittsburgh and Big East regular season champ Georgetown along the way. The road team won both regular season meetings with Syracuse winning 70-68 at Louisville on January 19th, while the Cardinals won 58-53 at the Carrier Dome on March 2nd. As you can see, those two games were decided by a combined 7 points, and I look for this one to go right down to the wire as well. In fact, four of the last five meetings in this series have been decided by 5 points or less. This play falls into a system that is 26-5 (83.9%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet on an underdog (SYRACUSE) - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 8+ PPG in the 2nd half of the season, after 2 straight close wins by 3 points or less. Take Syracuse Saturday. |
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03-16-13 | Kansas State +5 v. Kansas | 54-70 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
15* K-State/Kansas Big 12 Championship Side on Kansas State +5
The Kansas State Wildcats will be highly motivated for revenge Saturday as they square off against the Kansas Jayhawks in the Big 12 Championship Game. They have lost the first two regular season meetings to the Jayhawks, but I look for them to get payback with an upset victory in the title game. I'll just take the points for some insurance. Kansas State is one of the best teams in the country that gets hardly any recognition. It is 27-6 on the season, and it is red hot right now. Kansas State has won eight of its last nine games overall, including double-digit victories over Texas (66-49) and Oklahoma State (68-57) in the first two games of the Big 12 Tournament. Kansas is one of the most overrated teams in the land. Time and time again it has escaped with close victories this season. The fact of the matter is that this Kansas team isn't nearly as dominant as some of the Kansas teams of year's past. That was evident when the Jayhawks lost three straight games during the regular season, including a 55-62 setback at TCU. The Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Kansas State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 Saturday games. The Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Roll with Kansas State Saturday. |
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03-16-13 | Michigan State v. Ohio State -1 | 58-61 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
15* Michigan State/Ohio State Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Ohio State -1
The Ohio State Buckeyes entered the Big Ten Tournament playing their best basketball of the season. That has continued with a 71-50 victory over Nebraska in their opener. Ohio State has now going 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games overall. No team in the country is playing better right now. What's most impressive about this run by the Buckeyes is the fact that four of those six victories came against NCAA Tournament contenders. They beat Minnesota (71-45), Michigan State (68-60) and Illinois (68-55) at home. Their most impressive win during this stretch was a 67-58 road victory at Big Ten champ Indiana on March 5th. Michigan State has just been so-so down the stretch, losing three of its last six games overall. Two of those three wins came against non-NCAA Tournament teams. They played in the late game last night, needing to erase a 30-20 halftime deficit to come back and beat Iowa 59-56. That comeback effort took a lot out of them, and now they'll have to play roughly 17 hours after that game went final. Ohio State was the better team in the regular season meetings. It lost 56-59 at Michigan State in the first meeting, but came back with a 68-60 home victory in the second. This is personal for the Buckeyes, who lost 68-64 to Michigan State in the Big Ten Championship last year. I look for it to get revenge in blowout fashion Saturday. The Buckeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Spartans are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win. Michigan State is 0-6 ATS after allowing 65 points or less 3 straight games this season. The Buckeyes are 10-1 ATS in road games after a combined score of 125 points or less 3 straight games since 1997. These four trends combine for a 23-1 system backing the Buckeyes. Bet Ohio State Saturday. |
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03-15-13 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas State | 57-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
15* Oky State/K-State Big 12 BAILOUT on Kansas State PK
The Kansas State Wildcats should be a heavy favorite over the Oklahoma State Cowboys tonight. Instead, we're getting them at a pick 'em and I'll take full advantage. The co-Big 12 champs will make easy work of the Cowboys in this one folks. Oklahoma State has been one of the most lucky teams in the country this season, pulling out more close wins than any other team that comes to mind. That was the case last night in a 74-72 victory over Baylor in their Big 12 Tournament opener. Their luck runs out tonight against a superior Wildcats team that is 26-6 on the season. What I love most about Kansas State is the fact that it will be out for revenge from a 70-76 loss at Oklahoma State in its regular season finale on March 9th less than a week ago. The Wildcats will basically have home-court advantage with this game being played in Kansas City, Missouri. It all spells payback tonight folks. The Cowboys are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Oklahoma State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Cowboys are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win. Bet Kansas State Friday. |
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03-15-13 | Iowa State +6 v. Kansas | 73-88 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
15* Big 12 Tournament GAME OF THE DAY on Iowa State +6
The Iowa State Cyclones will be more motivated for a win tonight than in any other game they have played all season. This is personal with the Kansas Jayhawks, as Iowa State was simply robbed of two victories over them during the regular season. Both regular season meetings went to overtime. Iowa State lost the first at Kansas after a banked 3-pointer went in for the Jayhawks at the end of regulation to force overtime, a complete fluke. Then, the Cyclones blew a late double-digits lead at home and eventually lost in overtime. The Big 12 came out after the game and admitted the refs blew some calls late that cost Iowa State the victory. I fully expect Iowa State to win outright tonight, but I'm just going to take the points for some added insurance. Kansas is clearly vulnerable after needing overtime to beat the Cyclones twice this year, and after losing 58-81 at Baylor in its regular season finale with the Big 12 title on the line. This isn't the same dominant Jayhawks team from year's past. Iowa State has won and covered three straight games over Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and West Virginia heading into this one. This play falls into a system that is 52-23 (69.3%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet on any team (IOWA ST) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 85 or more points, after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite. The Cyclones are 40-18-2 ATS in their last 60 vs. Big 12 opponents. Iowa State is 19-6 ATS after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. The Cyclones are 15-5 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. Take Iowa State Friday. |
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03-15-13 | Syracuse +2.5 v. Georgetown | Top | 58-55 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
20* Syracuse/Georgetown ESPN No-Brainer on Syracuse +2
The Syracuse Orange are the best No. 5 seed of any conference tournament in the country. They have gotten by Seton Hall and Pittsburgh, and now they'll upset the No. 1 seed Georgetown Hoyas Friday night. This game is personal for the Orange. Georgetown has won the first two meetings with Syracuse this season, both by double-digits. That includes a 61-39 home victory in their regular season finale on March 9th less than a week ago. There's no question that the Orange are going to be more motivated for a win tonight than they have been at any other point this season as they look for revenge. At the same time, I fully expect the Hoyas to relax having already beating Syracuse twice by double-digits. They will think they just have to show up to win, and they won't be coming out with the same intensity as the Orange because of it. This play falls into a system that is 91-47 (65.9%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on any team (SYRACUSE) - revenging 2 straight losses where team scored < 60 points, off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog. Syracuse is 20-6 ATS in road games off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog since 1997. The Orange are 22-9 ATS as a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less or pick since 1997. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Bet Syracuse Friday. |
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03-15-13 | Tennessee -2 v. Alabama | 48-58 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 19 m | Show | |
15* SEC Tournament GAME OF THE DAY on Tennessee -2
The Tennessee Volunteers are squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble right now. My latest check has them as the final team in the "first four in" category in Joe Lunardi's bracket. That means a loss today to Alabama and they'll likely move down to the "first four out" list. They aren't going to chance that today folks. Tennessee has been playing its best basketball of the season down the stretch just to get itself in the discussion of the NCAA Tournament. The Vols have won nine of their last 10 games overall, which includes four road wins, and home victories over Kentucky (88-58), Florida (64-58) and Missouri (64-62). This is a dangerous team that nobody wants to face right now. Alabama has been up and down all season. It closed the year with losses in three of its last five games to put itself clearly out of the NCAA Tournament discussion barring a deep run in the SEC Tournament. Its only wins during that stretch came at home against Auburn and Georgia, and it even needed a buzzer-beater to beat the Bulldogs in its season finale. The Vols are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Tennessee is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Crimson Tide are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Roll with Tennessee Saturday. |
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03-14-13 | Arkansas -2 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 72-75 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 27 m | Show |
25* SEC Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Arkansas -2
The Arkansas Razorbacks represent my strongest release for the entire 2013 SEC Tournament. There won't be a better wagering opportunity than this one folks. I look for the Razorbacks to roll over the Vanderbilt Commodores in the opening round of the conference tourney Thursday. Arkansas needs this win to stay alive for the NCAA Tournament. This is a team that is squarely on the bubble, and only a deep run in the SEC Tournament will get them in. Vanderbilt is just 14-16 on the season and it has no business getting this much respect from oddsmakers tonight. The home team won in blowout fashion in both meetings with Arkansas winning 56-33 at home on January 12th, and Vanderbilt winning 67-49 at home on February 9th. However, the Razorbacks were in a huge letdown spot heading into their second meeting after beating then-No. 1 Florida 80-69 in their previous game. It was only human nature for them to have such a letdown following such a big win. Vanderbilt is clearly overvalued due to winning four of its final five games to close out the season. However, all four of those victories came against SEC bottom feeders in Mississippi State, Auburn, South Carolina and Georgia. Kevin Stallings is 30-51 ATS after having won 4 of their last 5 games as the coach of Vanderbilt. Mike Anderson is 11-2 ATS versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=18 free throws/game as the coach of Arkansas. The Razorbacks are winning 69.5 to 61.6 in this spot, or by an average of 7.9 points/game. Bet Arkansas Thursday. |
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03-14-13 | Nebraska v. Purdue -5.5 | Top | 57-55 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 26 m | Show |
20* Big Ten Opening Round ANNIHILATOR on Purdue -5.5
The Purdue Boilermakers are playing their best basketball of the season heading into the Big Ten Tournament. As a result, they are the biggest sleeper in this tourney and I wouldn't be surprised one bit to see them win a few games in it. It starts Thursday with a blowout victory over Nebraska. The Boilermakers won two of their final three games while going a perfect 3-0 ATS in the process. What's most impressive about that is the fact that all three of those teams are projected to be in the NCAA Tournament. They won 69-56 at Wisconsin as a 14-point underdog, vs. Minnesota 89-73 as a 3-point dog, and lost vs. Michigan 75-80 as a 6.5-point dog. After playing such tough competition to close out the regular season, the Boilermakers are clearly battle-tested. It will be like playing a high school team when they get to face lowly Nebraska in the opening round. The Huskers are just 14-17 overall, including 5-13 in Big Ten play. Purdue won 65-56 at Nebraska on January 16th in their lone meeting of the regular season as a 2-point favorite. In fact, the Boilermakers are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS vs. Nebraska since the Cornhuskers joined the Big 12 last year. All three victories have come by 9, 18 and 18 points. The Boilermakers are 10-1 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. Purdue is 6-0 ATS versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 4+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. These last three trends combine for a 19-1 system backing the Boilermakers today. Take Purdue Thursday. |
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03-14-13 | Dayton v. Butler -3.5 | 67-73 | Win | 100 | 20 h 46 m | Show | |
15* Atlantic 10 Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Butler -3.5
The Butler Bulldogs should be a much heavier favorite in the opening round of the Atlantic 10 Tournament over the Dayton Flyers. Butler won at Dayton 79-73 in their lone regular season meeting on January 12th. The Flyers (17-13) have no business getting this much respect from oddsmakers in the rematch. Butler (24-7) isn't a complete lock to get into the NCAA Tournament, and it doesn't want to lose this game to give the committee any reason to keep it out of the Big Dance. This team doesn't take games off under the head coaching of Brad Stevens, either. Stevens is 24-9 ATS in all neutral court games as the coach of Butler. The Bulldogs are 15-2 ATS in all neutral court games over the last 3 seasons. Butler is 7-0 ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=37% of their attempts after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. It is winning in this spot by an average of 10.2 points/game. Roll with Butler Thursday. |
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03-14-13 | Syracuse +2.5 v. Pittsburgh | 62-59 | Win | 100 | 19 h 26 m | Show | |
15* Big East Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Syracuse +2.5
The Syracuse Orange should not be an underdog to the Pittsburgh Panthers in the second round of the Big East Tournament today. In my opinion, Syracuse is the best No. 5 seed in the country in all of these conference tournaments. This team is undervalued due to its poor finish to the season. Sure, Syracuse lost four of its final five games to close out the regular season. However, those four losses came to Georgetown (twice), Louisville and Marquette, which are the three teams in the Big East that finished with the best records. Pittsburgh won each of its final four games to close out the regular season. A closer look shows that those four victories were unimpressive as all four came against mediocre Big East teams in St. Johns, South Florida, Villanova and DePaul. However, the Panthers are getting respect because of this finish, but as you can see it's unwarranted. The Orange are going to be out for revenge from a 55-65 loss at Pittsburgh on February 2nd in their lone regular season meeting. Jim Boeheim is 21-9 ATS a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less or pick as the coach of Syracuse. He gets his teams to play at their highest level at Madison Square Garden in the Big East Tournament. Pittsburgh is 0-9 ATS after 3 straight games outrebounding opponent by 6 or more over the last 2 seasons. This trend just goes to show how the Panthers have been overvalued after a few dominant performances in a row, which is the case here. The Orange are the better team and that will show on the court today. Take Syracuse Thursday. |
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03-14-13 | Georgia Tech -1 v. Boston College | 64-84 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 56 m | Show | |
15* ACC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia Tech -1
This is a classic regular season finale rematch spot that I'm going to take advantage of. Boston College beat Georgia Tech 74-72 on March 9th in the regular season finale for both teams. Now, playing each other less than a week later, I'm backing the Yellow Jackets to get revenge on a neutral court this time around. This play falls into a system that is 79-43 (64.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on any team (GEORGIA TECH) - off a close road loss by 3 points or less, with all five starters returning from last season. Georgia Tech played very well down the stretch, going 3-1 ATS in its last 4 games overall. That includes a 71-69 road victory on March 6th over ACC regular season champ Miami as a 13-point underdog, and a 78-68 home victory over possible NCAA Tournament contender Maryland on February 27th. The Yellow Jackets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Georgia Tech is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games following a S.U. loss. The Eagles are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. Bet Georgia Tech Thursday. |
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03-13-13 | Oregon State v. Colorado -4.5 | Top | 68-74 | Win | 100 | 16 h 13 m | Show |
20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Colorado -4.5
The Colorado Buffaloes get the nod Wednesday in the opening round of the Pac-12 Tournament as they take on the Oregon State Beavers. Colorado is a bubble team in terms of the NCAA Tournament so it will not be lacking any motivation tonight with its tournament life on the the line. Adding fuel to the fire for the Buffaloes is the fact that they lost 58-64 at home to Oregon State in their season finale. Now, playing just four days later, I look for the Buffaloes to get revenge in blowout fashion. This is an Oregon State team that is just 14-17 on the season and had lost five straight before that win over Colorado. Oregon State is 1-9 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins this season. Colorado is 9-1 ATS after scoring 60 points or less this season. It is coming back to win by an average of 12.7 points/game in this spot. Bet the Buffaloes Wednesday. |
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03-13-13 | Seton Hall v. Syracuse -12.5 | 63-75 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 55 m | Show | |
15* Big East GAME OF THE DAY on Syracuse -12.5
The Syracuse Orange come into this Big East Tournament highly motivated for a victory after the way they closed out their season. It will take out its frustration on Seton Hall, which it beat by 11 points on the road on February 16th by a final of 76-65 in their lone meeting during the regular season. Syracuse has lost four of its last five games to drop to 23-8 on the season. All four of those losses came against the top three teams in the Big East in Georgetown (twice), Louisville and Marquette. After such a tough stretch to close out the year, there's no question the Orange are going to be battle-tested. It will seem like they're playing a high school team in the Pirates today. The Orange are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Seton Hall is 11-25 ATS in its last 36 neutral site games. The Pirates are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. Syracuse is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings. The favorite is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Take Syracuse Wednesday. |
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03-12-13 | DePaul v. Rutgers -3 | 57-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
15* DePaul/Rutgers Big East BAILOUT on Rutgers -3
This one is as easy as it gets folks. The DePaul Blue Demons are one of the worst teams in the entire country and they have zero confidence heading into the Big East Tournament. That's because they come in having lost 15 of their last 16 games overall. Sure, that one win was against Rutgers at home by a final of 75-69 in their first and only meeting of the regular season. However, that places the Scarlet Knights in revenge mode here. While Rutgers has lost five of its last seven games overall, four of those losses came by single-digits to the likes of DePaul, Villanova, Providence and Marquette. The other was a 13-point loss at Big East champ Georgetown. This team is clearly playing better than DePaul heading into the Big East Tournament. The Blue Demons are 0-7 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons. Rutgers is 7-0 ATS in road games after playing a game as an underdog this season. DePaul is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games overall. These three trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing the Scarlet Knights. Bet Rutgers Tuesday. |
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03-12-13 | South Florida v. Seton Hall | Top | 42-46 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
20* USF/Seton Hall Big East ANNIHILATOR on South Florida PK
Remember, the South Florida Bulls made the NCAA Tournament last year due to a hot finish to the season. They returned several players from that team this year. While an NCAA Tournament appearance is highly unlikely in 2013, this team comes into the Big East Tournament playing its best basketball of the season. South Florida has won two of its last three games with its only loss coming at Cincinnati in overtime as a 12.5-point underdog. It beat DePaul 83-73 at home before destroying a very good Connecticut team 65-51 at home as well. This team is certainly feeling good about itself heading into this showdown with the Pirates. Seton Hall has lost 11 of its last 12 games overall with its only victory coming by a single point at home over Villanova. While the Bulls are hot entering the Big East Tournament, the Pirates are certainly ice cold and lacking confidence. I believe you will see that play out on the court tonight as the Bulls roll and get revenge from their 47-55 loss at Seton Hall in their lone meeting of the season on January 23rd. South Florida is 6-0 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons. It is beating these teams 70.8 to 59.3, or by an average of 11.5 points/game. Seton Hall is 0-6 ATS after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season. It is losing in this spot 58.3 to 68.2, or by an average of 9.9 points/game. The Bulls are 16-4-2 ATS in their last 22 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Roll with South Florida Tuesday. |
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03-10-13 | Maryland Terrapins v. Virginia Cavaliers -8 | 58-61 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Virginia -8
According to Joe Lunardi's bracketology, the Virginia Cavaliers are the first team listed in the "First Four Out" category. That means this is an extremely important game for them, and as a result I look for them to roll at home today over the Maryland Terrapins. While Virginia has a ton to play for, Maryland comes in deflated after giving away its chances of making the NCAA Tournament over the past couple weeks. The Terrapins have lost four of their last seven with ugly road losses to Georgia Tech (68-78) and Boston College (58-69), as well as double-digit home losses to UNC (68-79) and Virginia (80-69). After already beating the Terrapins by 11 on the road, I have no doubt the Cavaliers can win the rematch by 9-plus at home this time around. That's because Virginia is 17-0 SU & 13-2 ATS at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by a whopping 17.6 points/game. Maryland is just 3-6 in true road games this year. The Cavaliers are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Virginia is 6-0 ATS in home games after playing a road game this season. The Cavaliers are 6-0 ATS in home games when playing only their 2nd game in a week this season. Virginia is 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season. These four trends combine for a perfect 27-0 system backing the Cavaliers. Roll with Virginia Sunday. |
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03-09-13 | Duke v. North Carolina -1.5 | 69-53 | Loss | -106 | 21 h 49 m | Show | |
15* Duke/UNC ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on North Carolina -1.5
The North Carolina Tar Heels want revenge from a 68-73 loss at Duke as a 10.5-point underdog in their first meeting of the season on February 9th. I look for them to have their payback at home this time around as these Tobacco Road rivals square off Saturday night on ESPN at 9:00 EST. North Carolina has been playing its best basketball of the season since that loss to Duke. It has gone a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in six games since with all six victories coming by 9 points or more. The Tar Heels won road games at Georgia Tech (70-58), Clemson (68-59), and Maryland (79-68), while also beating Virginia (93-81), NC State (76-65) and Florida State (77-58) at home during this stretch. The Tar Heels are a sensational 14-1 SU & 10-3 ATS at home this season. They are outscoring opponents by a whopping 15.0 points/game at home this year. Their only home loss came to current ACC leader Miami, which obviously looking back really isn't that bad of a defeat. Duke is only 4-4 on the road this season. It has road losses to NC State (76-84), Miami (63-90), Maryland (81-83) and Virginia (68-73). This is only a mediocre Blue Devils team when they get away from Cameron Indoor. Duke is 0-6 ATS in road games off a home win against a conference rival this season. UNC is 8-0 ATS in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. The Blue Devils are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Tar Heels are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall. UNC is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 home games. These four trends combine for a perfect 25-0 system backing the Tar Heels. Roll with North Carolina Saturday. |
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03-09-13 | Kansas -3 v. Baylor | 58-81 | Loss | -106 | 19 h 40 m | Show | |
15* Kansas/Baylor ESPN Saturday No-Brainer on Kansas -3
At 14-3 in the Big 12 this season, the Kansas Jayhawks are tied with the Kansas State Wildcats atop the conference standings. They can clinch at least a share of their 9th straight Big 12 title with a win over the Baylor Bears Saturday. These Jayhawk players DO NOT want to break tradition, so they'll be laying it all on the line not only for themselves, but every former Jayhawk that helped keep this streak going. Kansas has won seven straight while going 7-0 ATS in the process to put itself in this position. While the Jayhawks have been rolling and come in with a ton of confidence, the Bears have lost five of their last six with their only victory coming 65-62 over lowly West Virginia. This poor run to close out the season has put Baylor on the outside looking in in terms of the NCAA Tournament, and not even a win over Kansas would put it on the right side of the bubble. As a result, I look for the Bears to come out flat today and for the more hungry Jayhawks to run away with this one. Baylor is 1-9 ATS versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. The Jayhawks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Kansas is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 meetings in Baylor winning by 14, 20, 10, 26, 20 and 21 points. These four trends combine for a 26-1 system backing the Jayhawks. Take Kansas Saturday. |
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03-09-13 | Oregon State v. Colorado -8 | 64-58 | Loss | -106 | 17 h 10 m | Show | |
15* Pac-12 GAME OF THE DAY on Colorado -8
While the Colorado Buffaloes (20-9) are coming off a big 76-52 home victory over the Oregon Ducks on Thursday night, they are still squarely on the bubble in terms of the NCAA Tournament. There's no question they realize this, and as a result they won't allow themselves to overlook lowly Oregon State Saturday. Colorado is playing its best basketball of the season over the past couple months. It has won nine of its last 12 games overall with two of its three losses coming by a combined four points. The Buffaloes are 12-2 at home this season where they are outscoring their opponents by 14.2 points/game. Oregon State (13-17) has clearly packed it in. It has lost five straight games, including a 61-72 loss at lowly Utah on Thursday to really prove that it doesn't want to be playing right now. Four of its five losses during this skid have come by double-digits, so the Beavers haven't even been competitive. Don't expect them to start Saturday. Colorado is 6-0 ATS after allowing 55 points or less this season. It is winning in this spot by 14.7 points/game. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in this series. Colorado has won its last three home meetings with Oregon State by 22, 26 and 15 points. Bet Colorado Saturday. |
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03-09-13 | Missouri v. Tennessee +1 | Top | 62-64 | Win | 100 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
25* College Basketball GAME OF THE YEAR on Tennessee +1
The Tennessee Volunteers represent my strongest college basketball release for the entire 2012-13 season Saturday when they host the Missouri Tigers. This is a must-win game for Tennessee as it is squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament. It won't be lacking any motivation today because of it. Tennessee has played its best basketball of the season over the past month just to put itself in this position, and I look for it to continue today. The Vols have won seven of their last eight to get to 18-11 on the season. That includes four road wins and three impressive home victories over Kentucky (88-58), LSU (82-72) and Florida (64-58). The Vols are now 12-3 at home this season. A big reason I'm backing them is the fact that Missouri is a terrible road team. The Tigers are just 2-7 in true road games this season with their only wins coming against SEC bottom feeders Mississippi State and South Carolina, who are a combined 7-27 in conference play this season. Tennessee is 23-5 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less or pick since 1997. The Vols are 10-1 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game after 15+games over the last 2 seasons. Tennessee is 6-0 ATS off a road win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons. The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Vols are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. These last four trends combine for a 27-1 system backing the Vols. Bet Tennessee Saturday. |
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03-09-13 | Clemson v. Miami (Fla) -12.5 | Top | 49-62 | Win | 100 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami -12.5
The Miami Hurricanes are undervalued Saturday as only a 12.5-point favorite over the lowly Clemson Tigers. That's because they are coming off an ugly last-second home loss to Georgia Tech by a final of 69-71 on Wednesday as a 13-point favorite. A closer look shows why they lost that game. Miami was coming off a heartbreaking 76-79 loss at Duke, so it was in a hangover situation. Also, the Hurricanes knew in the back of their minds that they could afford to lose that game to the Yellow Jackets with this contest against Clemson looming. They are still one game ahead of Duke in the ACC title race, so a win today will mean they'll be crowned conference champs. The Hurricanes certainly won't be lacking any motivation with the ACC title on the line. They'll also be hungry to send their seniors out with one final home victory on Senior Day. This is a senior-led team as Kenny Kadji (13.3 PPG), Durand Scott (13.2), Trey McKinney Jones (9.1), Reggie Johnson (8.0) and Julian Gamble (6.6) will all be playing their final home game Saturday. These are five of Miami's top six scorers! Losers of five straight and eight of their last nine overall, the Clemson Tigers have clearly given up on their season. That includes ugly losses in their last two games with a 61-69 setback at Virginia Tech, and a 61-68 home loss to Boston College. This team simply does not want to be playing in this game today. Miami is 6-0 ATS after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. It is coming back to win by an average of 14.2 points/game in this spot. The Hurricanes are 27-10-1 ATS in their last 38 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Miami is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 Saturday games. Clemson is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 Saturday game. Take Miami Saturday. |
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03-09-13 | Nebraska v. Iowa -12.5 | 60-74 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show | |
15* Big Ten GAME OF THE DAY on Iowa -12.5
The Iowa Hawkeyes are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament. They are certainly one of the last few teams out if the season were to end today, so they need this win over Nebraska, and maybe a win in the Big Ten Tournament to get in. I look for them to take care of step No. 1 in blowout fashion today. Iowa is one of the most underrated teams in the country at 19-11 because it has so many close losses this season. That includes a 60-64 loss at Nebraska on February 23rd in their first meeting of the season in which the Hawkeyes blew a 41-25 halftime lead. That also puts Iowa in revenge mode today. Iowa is 15-2 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 16.3 points/game. Its only home losses came to Indian and Michigan State by a combined 7 points! This team quietly has one of the best home-court advantages in the league, which makes them continuously undervalued at home. Nebraska is coming off a big 53-51 home victory over Minnesota as an 8-point underdog. That win really made their season, and now they are in a huge letdown spot here. That's especially the case considering they've already beaten Iowa this season, so they won't be interested at all in this game. In fact, Nebraska is 0-6 ATS off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog over the last 2 seasons, losing in this spot by 22.0 points/game. The Huskers are 0-6 ATS off an upset win as a home underdog over the last 2 seasons, losing in this spot by 18.5 points/game. Iowa is 7-0 ATS in home games after a game where they covered the spread this season, winning by 15.0 points/game in this situation. These three trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing the Hawkeyes. Take Iowa Saturday. |
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03-09-13 | Texas A&M v. Arkansas -8 | 62-73 | Win | 100 | 15 h 40 m | Show | |
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Arkansas -8
The Arkansas Razorbacks are a bubble team in terms of the NCAA Tournament. They know they cannot afford to lose this game against Texas A&M Saturday if they want any chance of getting in. That's why I look for the Crimson Tide to put forth an inspired effort as they continue their dominance at home this season. Arkansas is a sensational 17-1 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by a whopping 16.6 points/game. Its home wins include Kentucky (73-60), Missouri (73-71), Florida (80-69) and Tennessee (73-60), so it has beaten four of the top teams in the conference, including three by double-digits. Texas A&M has watched its NCAA Tournament hopes slip away by losing three of their last four games overall, including an ugly 57-68 home loss to LSU on Wednesday. That defeat showed that the Aggies had packed it in, and I fully expect them to lay down for the Razorbacks in what will be one of the biggest blowouts on the board Saturday. Arkansas is 8-1 ATS in home games off a road loss over the last 2 seasons. It is coming back to win by 10.9 points/game in this spot. The Razorbacks are 8-1 ATS in home games on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons. It is winning by 14.6 points/game in this spot. The Razorbacks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Roll with Arkansas Saturday. |
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03-09-13 | Iowa State -3.5 v. West Virginia | 83-74 | Win | 100 | 14 h 25 m | Show | |
15* Big 12 GAME OF THE DAY on Iowa State -3.5
The Iowa State Cyclones are squarely on the bubble and need this win to get into the NCAA Tournament. A win and they're almost certainly in, while a loss would leave a lot of work to do in the Big 12 Tournament. This is one of the most underrated teams in the country. Iowa State (20-10) is the definition of a team that is much better than its record would indicate. It has several close, heartbreaking losses this season, including a pair of overtime losses to Kansas in which the Jayhawks banked in a 3-pointer at the end of regulation, and the refs blew foul calls down the stretch of the other defeat. West Virginia is simply one of the worst teams in the Big 12 at 13-17 on the season. It has given up on its season for a while now, losers of five straight coming into this one. Four of those five losses came by double-digits, including a 57-73 home loss to Oklahoma State, and a 65-91 setback at Kansas. The Mountaineers are 1-9 ATS vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=72% of their attempts this season. Iowa State is 9-1 ATS after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. West Virginia is 0-6 ATS after a game where they made 53% of their free throws or worse over the last 3 seasons. The Mountaineers are 0-7 ATS in home games after allowing 80 points or more 2 straight games since 1997. These four trends combine for a 31-2 system backing the Cyclones. Roll with Iowa State Saturday. |
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03-09-13 | Kansas State +5.5 v. Oklahoma State | 70-76 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 25 m | Show | |
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas State +5.5
The Kansas State Wildcats are deadlocked in a tie with rival Kansas for the best record in the Big 12. Both teams are 14-3, and the Wildcats would love nothing more than to clinch at least a share of the conference title. They would win it outright with a win and a Jayhawk loss at Baylor later in the day. While Kansas State certainly won't be lacking any motivation today, you have to question Oklahoma State's mental state of mind coming in. The Cowboys lost 76-87 at Iowa State on Wednesday to drop to 12-5 in the Big 12, a full two games back of both Kansas and Kansas State. I look for them to suffer a hangover from that defeat knowing that they cannot win at least a share of the Big 12 title now. Oklahoma State is 2-8 ATS versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game this season. The Wildcats are 7-2 SU in true road games this season. The Cowboys are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Oklahoma State is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 home games. Bet Kansas State Saturday. |
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03-07-13 | Oregon State v. Utah -2 | 61-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Utah -2
The Utah Utes have been one of the most underrated teams in the Pac-12 all season. This is a team that has beaten the likes of Washington on the road, and Colorado and Arizona State at home. It has also taken Arizona down to the wire in both meetings, falling by just 3 points on the road and 4 at home to the Wildcats. Utah is a respectable 9-7 at home this season. It will be up against an Oregon State team that is just 2-6 in true road games this year. It will also be out for revenge on the Beavers after losing the first meeting 64-82 on the road on February 6th. It appears Oregon State has given up on its season. It has lost four straight with three of those coming by double-digits to drop to 13-16 on the year. It is also coming off a big loss at in-state rival Oregon, setting the Beavers up for a letdown spot here. Utah is a perfect 6-0 ATS in home games revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. The Utes are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games following a S.U. loss. Take Utah Thursday. |
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03-07-13 | Oregon v. Colorado -2.5 | Top | 53-76 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Colorado -2.5
The Colorado Buffaloes (19-9) are squarely on the bubble in terms of making the NCAA Tournament. They realize that a home win over Oregon tonight would go a long way in to putting them on the right side of that bubble. That's why the Buffaloes won't be lacking any motivation tonight. Colorado is 11-2 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 13.4 points/game. It has impressive home wins over the likes of Colorado State (70-61), Stanford (75-54), Cal (81-71) and Arizona (71-58). Oregon is actually getting outscored on the road this season with losses to the likes of Cal (54-58), Stanford (52-76) and UTEP (84-91). The Buffaloes have won three of their last four meetings with the Ducks. Colorado is 8-0 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game this season. Oregon is 1-9 ATS versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game after 15+ games this season. These two trends combine for a 17-1 system backing the Buffaloes. Bet Colorado Thursday. |
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03-06-13 | Stanford v. California -5 | 83-70 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
15* Stanford/Cal ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on California -5
The Cal Bears are one of the hottest teams in the country. They should be a much heavier home favorite over Stanford tonight because of it. The Bears will be out for revenge tonight from a 59-69 loss at Stanford on January 19th in their first meeting of the season, so they have plenty of reason to be motivated. Cal has won seven straight and nine of its last 10 games overall coming in. That includes two wins over Oregon, a victory at Arizona, and home victories over UCLA and Colorado. The Bears have gotten to 20-9 on the season to put themselves on the right side of the bubble in terms of the NCAA Tournament. Stanford has lost four of its last six games to drop to 17-13 on the season. It is now on the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament bubble with almost zero chance of getting in. That's why I look for it to fold tonight and to not even show up as it travels to face the Bears. The Cardinal are just 4-6 in true road games this year. Adding fuel to the fire for the Bears is the fact that they are just one-half game back of both Oregon and UCLA for the Pac-12 title. They'll be motivated for that, plus this is their final home game of the season, which means it's Senior Night. They certainly want to send their seniors out with one final victory and keep their momentum as they head into the Pac-12 Tournament. Cal is 7-0 ATS after 2 straight games where opponent was called for 15 or less fouls this season. The Bears are 7-0 ATS in home games after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons. Cal is 6-0 ATS in home games after a combined score of 125 points or less over the last 2 seasons. The Bears are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Cal is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. These six trends combine for a perfect 34-0 system backing the Bears. Bet Cal Wednesday. |
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03-06-13 | West Virginia v. Oklahoma -10 | 70-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
15* WVU/Oklahoma ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Oklahoma -10
The Oklahoma Sooners are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They have been coming on very strong to close out the season to put themselves on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble. They also realize that a loss to West Virginia tonight could put them on the wrong side, so they won't be lacking any motivation heading into this one. Oklahoma has gone 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games overall which includes impressive home wins over Kansas (72-66), Baylor (90-76) and Iowa State (86-69). Its only losses came in overtime on the road to Oklahoma State and Texas. West Virginia has essentially packed it in as it has lost four straight while going 1-3 ATS in the process. Its losses include a 57-73 home loss to Oklahoma State, and a 65-91 road loss to Kansas. Oklahoma already beat WVU 67-57 on the road on January 5th in their first meeting of the season, and I like its chances of winning by 11-plus at home this time around. The Sooners are 11-2 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by 13.3 points/game. The Mountaineers are just 3-8 in true road games this season, losing by an average of 10.6 points/game. Their three road wins have all come against Big 12 bottom feeders in TCU, Texas Tech and Texas. This is Senior Night for the senior-led Sooners, which only adds to their motivation. Their top two scorers are seniors in Romero Osby (15.2 PPG) and Steven Pledger (11.9). Role players Andrew Fitzgerald (5.8 PPG) and Sam Grooms (4.8 PPG) are also seniors. Look for everyone to rally and try to get these guys one final home win tonight. The Mountaineers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss. West Virginia is 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Sooners are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games. Take Oklahoma Wednesday. |
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03-06-13 | Connecticut v. South Florida +3.5 | 51-65 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on South Florida +3.5
The UConn Huskies are starting to realize that they cannot play in the postseason due to their postseason ban this year. I think it's starting to wear on these players, as evidenced by their recent performances. They are 19-9 on the season and would be an NCAA Tournament team if they were eligible. The Huskies have lost back-to-back games coming in with setbacks to Georgetown and Cincinnati. I look for them to drop a third straight against a South Florida team that proved it wasn't going to quit on its season with a much-needed 83-73 home victory over DePaul last time out to stop the bleeding. There's no question the Bulls will be the more motivated team tonight considering this is Senior Night for them. This is a senior-led team as two of their top three scorers are seniors in Toarlyn Fitzpatrick (10.4 PPG) and Jawanza Poland (9.1 PPG). Look for these South Florida players to rally and get Fitzpatrick and Poland a big win in the final home game of their careers. UConn is 4-13 ATS off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 60 points since 1997. South Florida is 48-28 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more since 1997. The Bulls are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings with UConn dating back to 2008. Three of those six games went to overtime, including a 69-64 (OT) home win by the Huskies in their first meeting this season on February 3rd, which places the Bulls in revenge mode. Roll with South Florida Wednesday. |
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03-06-13 | Vanderbilt v. Florida -18 | 40-66 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
15* SEC GAME OF THE NIGHT on Florida -18
The Florida Gators have plenty of reason to be motivated tonight to bury Vanderbilt. They are one win away from clinching their fourth outright SEC championship and second in three years. I believe they actually come into this game undervalued due to going 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall, while the Commodores are overvalued after winning three straight over SEC bottom feeders Georgia, Mississippi State and Auburn. Adding to the Gators' motivation is the fact that this is Senior Night. This is certainly a senior-led team as its top three scorers are all seniors in Mike Rosario (12.9 PPG), Kenny Boynton (12.5) and Erik Murphy (12.4). Look for huge games from this trio as their teammates rally around them. Florida is a perfect 14-0 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by a whopping 25.5 points/game. Vanderbilt is just 13-15 on the season, including 5-9 in all road games. This team has no chance of keeping this game close against a motivated Gators bunch tonight. Vanderbilt is 6-19 ATS after covering 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread since 1997. The Gators are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The Gators are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Wednesday games. Bet Florida Wednesday. |
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03-06-13 | Oklahoma State v. Iowa State -3 | Top | 76-87 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State -3
The Iowa State Cyclones are in a must-win situation tonight against Oklahoma State. This is a team that is squarely on the bubble right now in terms of the NCAA Tournament. A win over these Cowboys tonight would put them on the good side of the bubble. Iowa State will be out for revenge following a last-second 76-78 loss at Oklahoma State in their first meeting. I like its chances of getting payback tonight considering how well this team has played at home all season and even dating back to last year. The Cyclones have won 22 of their last 23 home games since last season. Their lone loss was a fluke OT loss to Kansas on February 25th in which the refs completely blew the game, and Big 12 officials came back and admitted that. This will be Senior Night for the Cyclones with Chris Babb, Korie Lucious, Will Clyburn and Tyrus McGee all laying it on the line to try and get a win in the final home game of their career inside magical Hilton Coliseum. These are four of Iowa State's top six scorers, combining to average nearly 48 points/game! The home team has won 9 of the last 10 meetings in this series dating back to 2005. Iowa State is 40-16 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or pick since 1997. The Cowboys are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet Iowa State Wednesday. |
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03-06-13 | DePaul v. Syracuse -18.5 | 57-78 | Win | 100 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
15* Big East GAME OF THE NIGHT on Syracuse -18.5
The Syracuse Orange come into this game with DePaul highly motivated for a victory. They are riding a season-high 3-game losing streak coming in with losses to Georgetown, Marquette and Louisville, which are the three teams with the best records in the Big East. Now, they get to face Big East punching bag DePaul to get back on track. The Blue Demons have lost four straight and 13 of their last 14 overall with their lone win coming at home over Rutgers. Syracuse has won its last two meetings with DePaul 87-68 on the road, and 107-59 at home. Adding fuel to the fire for the Orange is the fact that this will be Senior Night. That means that they'll be honoring two of their top three scorers in Brandon Triche (14.2 PPG) and James Southerland (13.8 PPG). Look for this team to rally around each other and put an end to this skid while also getting these seniors one final home win by 20-plus points. DePaul is 0-7 ATS in road games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game after 15+games over the last 3 seasons. It is losing in this spot by an average of 22.7 points/game. The Orange are 8-2 ATS as a home favorite of 10 or more points this season. They are winning in this spot by 22.9 points/game. Roll with Syracuse Wednesday. |
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03-05-13 | Texas Christian v. Kansas State -21 | 68-79 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
15* Big 12 GAME OF THE NIGHT on Kansas State -21
Looking to regain a share of the conference lead, the Kansas State Wildcats will absolutely crush the TCU Horned Frogs at home tonight. This is also Senior Night for the Wildcats, meaning this will be the final home game for leading scorer Rodney McGruder (14.9 PPG) as well as Jordan Henriquez and Martavious Irving. Kansas State clearly wont be lacking any motivated tonight as it looks to build on its 15-1 home record this year. It is outscoring opponents by a whopping 18.0 points/game at home. TCU is just 1-9 in true road games, getting outscored by 16.2 points/game. TCU made its season by beating Kansas 62-55 at home on February 6th as a 17-point underdog. It has clearly packed it in since and is simply playing out its season. That's evident by the fact that the Horned Frogs are 0-7 SU & 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games overall, which includes losses at Oklahoma (48-75), Iowa State (53-87) and Kansas (48-74). The Horned Frogs are 0-9 ATS after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. TCU is 0-6 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season. The Horned Frogs are 0-7 ATS after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers this season. TCU is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 road games. These five trends combine for a perfect 35-0 system backing the Wildcats. Bet Kansas State Tuesday. |
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03-05-13 | St. Johns v. Notre Dame -9.5 | 40-66 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
15* Big East GAME OF THE NIGHT on Notre Dame -9.5
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have a ton of reasons to be motivated for a victory tonight over the St. Johns Red Storm. I like their chances of getting a double-digit blowout victory with everything they have working in their favor tonight. First, this is Senior Night for the Fighting Irish. Jack Cooley should be motivated for his final home game on what figures to be an emotional night since sixth-year forward Scott Martin will also be honored. Martin has been shut down indefinitely since Jan. 21 due to his recurring knee problems. Cooley was held scoreless for the first time in 57 games in a 72-64 loss at then-No. 22 Marquette on Saturday. He hadn't practiced the previous two days and was on an IV because of the flu. He played just 15 minutes against the Golden Eagles before being shut down as he simply wasn't himself. Healthy now, and motivated to bounce back from that defeat, I look for a huge game from Cooley in this one. Adding fuel to the fire is the fact that the Fighting Irish have lost three straight to St. Johns heading into this one, including a 63-67 road loss to the Red Storm in their first meeting of the season on January 15th. All three of their losses during this skid have come on the road, but the Irish return home for revenge. Notre Dame is 16-2 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 12.9 points/game. St. Johns is just 4-6 in true road games this season. The Red Storm figure to be an easier opponent Tuesday as losers of four of five. D'Angelo Harrison, averaging 17.8 points to rank among the conference's leaders, was suspended for the rest of the season Friday by coach Steve Lavin. St. Johns is 0-7 ATS after a game committing 8 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. The Red Storm are 1-9 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. These three trends combine for a 20-1 system backing the Irish. Also, the home team has won nine of the last 10 meetings with the Irish winning each of their last three home meetings by 13 points or more. Take Notre Dame Tuesday. |
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03-05-13 | Boston College v. Clemson -4 | 68-61 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
15* ACC GAME OF THE NIGHT on Clemson -4
The Boston College Eagles are coming off a big come-from-behind 53-52 home victory over NCAA Tournament contender Virginia on Sunday. Off such a huge upset, I look for the Eagles to fail to show up tonight when they travel to Clemson to take on the Tigers for a second time this season. Clemson has every reason to be motivated tonight. It wants revenge from a 68-75 loss at Boston College on February 2nd in their first meeting of the season. This is also Senior Night for the Tigers as they clearly want to send out their seniors with one final home victory. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between Boston College and Clemson. In fact, the home team has won 11 of the last 12 meetings dating back to 2003 with the Tigers being the only team to nab a road win in 2009. Clemson is 5-0 in its last 5 home meetings with Boston College dating back to 2003. All five victories have come by 8 points or more and by an average of 16 points/game. The Tigers are 31-13 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games since 1997. Clemson is 58-37 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1997. The Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Roll with Clemson Tuesday. |
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03-05-13 | Illinois v. Iowa -3.5 | Top | 55-63 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Iowa -3.5
This is a must-win game for the Iowa Hawkeyes tonight as they host the Illinois Fighting Illini. At 18-11 overall and 7-9 in Big Ten play, Iowa needs a big finish to get into the NCAA Tournament. It needs a win tonight, at home against Nebraska, and in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament and it will likely be in as it would move above .500 in the brutal Big Ten. Illinois comes in overvalued due to having won six of its last seven games overall. Most of those victories have come against Big Ten bottom feeders in Purdue, Northwestern, Penn State and Nebraska. This team should not be getting this much respect on the road tonight. That's especially the case considering how well Iowa has played at home this season. It is 14-2 inside of Carver Hawkeye Arena while outscoring opponents by a whopping 16.8 points/game. It has home wins over NCAA Tournament contenders in Minnesota (72-51), Wisconsin (70-66) and Iowa State (80-71). Iowa is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Hawkeyes are 6-0 ATS in home games after a game where they covered the spread this season. Iowa is 7-0 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games this season. The Hawkeyes are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. These four trends combine for a perfect 25-0 system backing the Hawkeyes. Bet Iowa Tuesday. |
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03-04-13 | Cincinnati +11 v. Louisville | 51-67 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
15* Cincinnati/Louisville ESPN Big Monday No-Brainer on Cincinnati +11
The Cincinnati Bearcats are showing awesome value as a double-digit road underdog to the Louisville Cardinals Monday night. I like Cincinnati to cover this spread for a number of reasons tonight with the biggest being their play on the road this year. The Bearcats have played their best basketball away from home during the 2012-13 season. They are 8-4 in all road games this year with wins over the likes of Iowa State (78-70), Oregon (77-66), Xavier (60-45), and Pittsburgh (70-61). They also played Syracuse to a 2-point game (55-57) as an 8.5-point underdog. Speaking of Syracuse, the Cardinals are in a huge letdown spot off their upset 58-53 road victory over the Orange on Saturday. Off such a big win, it will be very though for Louisville to come back and give the kind of effort it will take to beat these feisty Bearcats by more than 11 points. Louisville is known for its press which can give teams fits. However, Cincinnati has the perfect antidote with two of the best guards in the country. Leading scorers Sean Kilpatrick (17.7 PPG) and Cashmere Wright (12.6 PPG) will have no problem handling this press. Also, third-leading scorer JaQuon Parker (11.0 PPG) can handle the ball as well. Cincinnati is one of the few teams that is lucky enough to have its three best players being guards. This play falls into a system that is 45-13 (77.6%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (LOUISVILLE) - after scoring 60 points or less against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams score 65 points or less. When you look at the recent history between these teams, it's easy to see why I'm taking the points tonight. Each of the last seven meetings dating back to 2008 have been decided by 9 points or less. Cincinnati has won four of those seven contests outright. That makes for a perfect 7-0 system backing the double-digit underdog Bearcats tonight. The Bearcats are 10-0 ATS in road games off a home win over the last 2 seasons. Cincinnati is 6-0 ATS in road games off a home win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons. The Bearcats are 6-0 ATS in road games off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. These last four trends combine for a perfect 29-0 system backing the Bearcats. Take Cincinnati Monday. |
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03-03-13 | Michigan State v. Michigan -4.5 | 57-58 | Loss | -101 | 6 h 36 m | Show | |
15* Michigan State/Michigan CBS Sunday No-Brainer on Michigan -4.5
The Michigan Wolverines come into this game with the overrated Michigan State Spartans highly motivated for a victory. They are coming off their most embarrassing loss of the season after blowing a double-digit lead at Penn State on February 27th by a final of 78-84. That was the Nittany Lions' first conference win of the season. It's clear the Michigan was looking ahead to this game against its biggest rival in the Spartans. It wants serious revenge from an ugly 52-75 loss at Michigan State in its first meeting of the season on February 12th. You won't see these Wolverines' players and this crowd more fired up than what they will be today throughout the rest of the season. I really like Michigan's chances of bouncing back from that loss to Penn State and getting revenge in blowout fashion considering how well it has played at home this year. It is a perfect 16-0 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by a whopping 21.4 points/game. Michigan State is 3-19 ATS in road games after playing a game as a road underdog since 1997. Michigan is 40-23 ATS in home games versus excellent teams - shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% since 1997. The Wolverines are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Spartans are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Michigan. Take Michigan Sunday. |
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03-03-13 | Virginia Cavaliers v. Boston College +4.5 | 52-53 | Win | 100 | 6 h 36 m | Show | |
15* ACC GAME OF THE DAY on Boston College +4.5
The Virginia Cavaliers are in a huge letdown spot Sunday as they travel to face the Boston College Eagles. That's because the Cavaliers are coming off their biggest win of the season on Thursday with a 73-68 victory over Duke. That win almost certainly cemented their spot in the NCAA Tournament, which is why they are ripe for a letdown here. Boston College has quietly been one of the most underrated teams in the country this season with several close losses on the year. I have no doubt this team is better than its 12-16 record would indicate. It will be out for revenge after a 51-65 loss at Virgina in their first meeting on January 26th. The Eagles have been solid at home this season. They have gone 10-6 at home with wins over the likes of Clemson, Wake Forest, Providence and Maryland. They also have close home losses to the likes of NC State (73-78) as a 7.5-point dog, Miami (59-60) as a 6-point dog and Duke (61-62) as an 11-point dog. While Virginia has been one of the best home teams in the country, it has simply been atrocious on the road this year. The Cavaliers are 3-7 in all road games this season with some ugly losses to the likes of George Mason (59-63), Wake Forest (52-55), Clemson (44-59), Georgia Tech (60-66) and UNC (81-93). This play falls into a system that is 161-89 (64.4%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BOSTON COLLEGE) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off 2 straight losses against conference rivals. Boston College is 8-1 ATS in home games revenging a loss where team scored less than 60 points over the last 2 seasons. The Eagles are 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS loss. Boston College is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 home games. The Cavaliers are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 road games. Roll with Boston College Sunday. |
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03-02-13 | Bradley v. Missouri State -2 | 56-64 | Win | 100 | 19 h 6 m | Show | |
15* Missouri Valley GAME OF THE DAY on Missouri State -2
The Missouri State Bears will be highly motivated for a victory when they return home to face the Bradley Braves Saturday night. They are coming off an ugly 50-86 road loss at Illinois State last time out, and this will be their final regular season game tonight. That means it will be Senior Day for the Bears. They certainly want to send out senior Anthony Downing a winner in his final home game ever. Downing is the team's best player as he leads them in points (13.7) and assists (2.7). He is the heart and soul of this team, and that's why I look for his teammates to go the extra mile to get him one final home win. Missouri State also wants revenge from a 66-69 road loss at Bradley on January 19th as a 9-point underdog in their first meeting of the season. I like their chances of getting payback at home this time around considering the Braves are just 4-10 in all road games this year. They have some absolutely embarrassing road losses to UNI (53-84), Evansville (56-66), Wichita State (39-73), Creighton (58-75) and Illinois State (59-79). The Bears have won 12 of their last 15 home meetings with the Braves. Bradley is 0-6 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons. The Braves are 0-6 ATS versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=45% after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. The Braves are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The Bears are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points. These four trends combine for a perfect 23-0 system backing the Bears. Roll with Missouri State Saturday. |
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03-02-13 | Indiana St v. Evansville -4 | 68-84 | Win | 100 | 16 h 6 m | Show | |
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Evansville -4
The Evansville Purple Aces should be a much bigger home favorite over the Indiana State Sycamores Saturday. This is Senior Day for Evansville as it will be their last home game of the season. It obviously wants to win this one for its seniors. Evansville has saved its best basketball for the end of the season. It is a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games overall with its only loss coming 68-71 as a 5-point home underdog to Creighton. It has reeled off three straight impressive victories since with a 79-62 home win over Illinois State as a 1-point dog, a 70-58 triumph at Wright State as a 1.5-point dog, and a 59-56 victory at Wichita State as an 11.5-point dog. While the Purple Aces are rolling right now, the Sycamores have clearly packed it in. Indiana State has gone 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games overall. It has lost four of its last five games overall with its only win coming 65-64 at home against Iona as a 5-point favorite. It has losses ugly losses to Missouri State (65-67), Bradley (68-80) and Drake (56-67) during this stretch. It doesn't even want to be here Saturday. Evansville is 13-3 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 9.6 points/game. Indiana State is just 4-8 in true road games this year. The Purple Aces want revenge from a 62-72 road loss at Indiana State on January 19th in their first meeting of the season. I like their chances of getting it at home this time around. Indiana State is 1-10 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. Evansville is 6-0 ATS in home games off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons. The Purple Aces are 6-0 ATS after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons. The Sycamores are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Purple Aces are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. These five trends combine for a 32-1 system backing the homer team. Bet Evansville Saturday. |
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03-02-13 | Kentucky v. Arkansas -3 | Top | 60-73 | Win | 100 | 15 h 6 m | Show |
25* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Arkansas -3
The Arkansas Razorbacks are squarely on the bubble in terms of the NCAA Tournament. This is a must-win game for them at home against Kentucky Saturday afternoon. The Razorbacks won't be lacking any motivation when they welcome the Wildcats to Bud Walton Arena today. Arkansas is coming off back-to-back road losses to Florida and LSU heading into this contest. Those are two of the best teams in the SEC, and those road losses should come as no surprise considering how poorly it has played on the road. However, its home-court advantage has been huge this season. The Razorbacks are a sensational 16-1 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by 16.8 points/game. Their home wins include Vanderbilt (56-33), Tennessee (73-60), Florida (80-69) and Missouri (73-71). The Wildcats are just 4-5 in true road games this year. Kentucky comes into this game way overvalued due to its 3-game winning streak. All three of those victories came at home over Vanderbilt (74-70), Missouri (OT) and Mississippi State. They were favored in all three contests as none of those wins were impressive. The Wildcats have lost their last two road games in blowout fashion to Florida (52-69) and Tennessee (58-88). They'll miss the presence of Nerlens Noel (out for season) on the road today. Arkansas is 7-0 ATS in home games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game after 15+games over the last 3 seasons. The Razorbacks are 11-2 ATS in home games off a road loss over the last 3 seasons. The Razorbacks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Bet Arkansas Saturday. |
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03-02-13 | Butler +7 v. Virginia Commonwealth | 52-84 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
15* Butler/VCU ESPN 2 Early ANNIHILATOR on Butler +7
Any time the Butler Bulldogs are catching points they are certainly worth a look. That's especially the case here Saturday as they are getting 7 points against Virginia Commonwealth. This is a Butler team that continues to be underrated year in and year out, and that has certainly been the case again this season. That's evident by the fact that Butler is 22-6 on the season and a very profitable 16-10 ATS. That includes a 9-4 SU & 9-4 ATS mark in road games this year. The Bulldogs have impressive outright wins over Marquette (72-71) as a 4-point dog, North Carolina (82-71) as an 8.5-point dog, Indiana (88-86) as an 11-point dog, St. Josephs (72-66) as a 2.5-point dog and Gonzaga (64-63) as a 2-point dog. They are 7-2 ATS as a dog this season. VCU is one of the more overrated teams in the country. It also holds a 22-6 record like Butler, but it is just 8-13 ATS in all lined games this year. This is a quality Rams team but not one that should be favored by 7 points in what is a very evenly matched game. They have really been overvalued of late, going 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Butler is 9-1 ATS versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. VCU is 0-6 ATS in home games versus bad pressure defensive teams - forcing <=12 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons. The Rams are 0-8 ATS when playing with 5 or 6 days rest over the last 3 seasons. The Rams are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. These four trends combine for a 29-2 system backing the Bulldogs. Take Butler Saturday. |