15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Virginia Tech -2.5

The Virginia Tech Hokies are one of the most underrated teams in the entire country. They should be a heavier favorite tonight over Bradley in this neutral court showdown at Orleans Arena in Las Vegas, NV.

The Hokies opened 7-0 before losing two of their last three games to West Virginia and Georgia Southern by a combined 6 points. That loss to Southern last time out is really not sitting well with Virginia Tech, and I look for its players to take out their frustration on the Bradley Braves tonight.

While Virginia Tech has had six days to stew over that loss to Georgia Southern and prepare for Bradley, the Braves are working on little rest. This will be the 3rd game in 6 days for Bradley, which puts it at a huge disadvantage in rest and preparation.

The Braves are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games. The Hokies are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss. The Hokies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. These three trends combine for a perfect 11-0 system backing the Hokies. Take Virginia Tech Saturday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on SMU -2.5

The SMU Mustangs have been going under the radar this season. They are coached by former NBA great Larry Brown, who is quietly turning this program around. Brown has his Mustangs off to an 8-3 start this season.

Wagner doesn't have near the talent of SMU, and it should not be betting this much respect from oddsmakers. Its only wins this season have come against NC Central, Princeton, Hofstra and Coppin State. It is no match for the Mustangs in this one.

What is most impressive about SMU's 8-3 start is the fact that it has already played seven road games in its first 11 contests. It has won four of those road games, including a 73-47 win at Hofstra. As stated before, Wagner also played Hofstra, winning by a narrow margin of 52-44.

Common opponents are a good way to compare teams, and SMU is clearly the superior squad when you look at their meetings with Hofstra. This contest on a neutral court won't even be close folks. Take SMU Friday.

15* Bulls/Knicks NBA Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 188

This game between the Chicago Bulls and New York Knicks will be a low-scoring affair between two of the best defensive teams in the league. I don't expect either team to eclipse 95 points in this one.

Chicago is allowing just 90.3 points per game this season while holding opponents to 42.4% shooting. However, it is scoring a mere 92.8 points per game on 44.1% shooting. As you can see, it is combining with its opponents to average 183.1 points per game this season. New York is yielding 94.5 points per game at home.

Recent history between these teams shows that we are getting tremendous value with this UNDER tonight. Each of their last three meetings have seen 184 or less combined points at the end of regulation. That includes a 93-85 home victory for Chicago on December 8th with 178 combined points in their lone meeting this season.

The UNDER is 7-0 in Bulls last 7 games playing on 2 days rest. The UNDER is 4-0 in Bulls last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. These two trends combine for a perfect 11-0 system backing the UNDER. Also, the UNDER is 35-16 in Bills last 51 games overall, and 20-6 in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Bucks/Celtics UNDER 191.5

This total has been inflated tonight in a battle between the Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics. I'll take advantage by backing the UNDER in a game where I expect neither Boston nor Milwaukee to put up more than 95 points in this one.

The recent history between these teams shows that this total has been inflated tonight. They have already met three times this season with Milwaukee winning 99-88 on the road on November 2nd for 187 combined points, Boston winning 96-92 on the road on November 10th for 188 combined points, and Milwaukee winning at home 91-88 on December 1st for 179 combined points. So this will be their 4th meeting of the season already, and familiarity breeds low-scoring games.

Looking back further I find some even more astonishing numbers in this head-to-head series. Boston and Milwaukee have combined for 191 or less points at the end of regulation in eight of their last nine meetings with one another. Their last four meetings dating back to last year have seen an average of 178.8 combined points/game.

Boston is 40-23 to the UNDER when playing its 3rd game in 4 days over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 9-1 in Bucks last 10 vs. NBA Atlantic division opponents. The UNDER is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in this series. The UNDER is 6-1 in Bucks last 7 road games. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/76ers UNDER 188.5

The Atlanta Hawks and Philadelphia 76ers will take part in a defensive battle tonight. Philadelphia has gone OVER the total in six straight, while Atlanta has gone OVER the number in three of their last four. These recent OVER runs for both teams has created some line value on the UNDER tonight.

Atlanta is scoring just 94.7 points/game while giving up 90.9 points/game on the road this season for an average combined score of 185.6 points/game. Philadelphia is scoring 93.2 points/game and allowing 96.9 points/game on the season for an average combined score of 190.1 points/game.

The recent history between these teams shows that this number has been inflated. Philadelphia and Atlanta have combined for 185, 185 and 166 points in their last three meetings, respectively. These teams clearly tend to play in defensive battles, and I expect that to be the case again tonight.

Atlanta is 15-2 to the UNDER after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. I'm seeing an average combined score of 179.1 points/game between the Hawks and their opponents in this spot. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Pepperdine +8

The Pepperdine Waves are showing solid value as a 7.5-point underdog to the Tulane Green Wave Thursday. Pepperdine is one of the most underrated teams in the country, and I believe it has an excellent chance to win this game outright tonight.

Pepperdine is off to a 7-4 start this season under head coach Marty Wilson. Three of its four losses have come by 6 points or less, and the other was a 62-79 loss at California as a 20.5-point underdog. The biggest reason you can tell this team is underrated is the fact that it is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games overall.

Sure, Tulane is off to an 8-3 start this season, but it really doesn't have a good win on its resume. Its eight victories have all come at home against the likes of Bethune-Cookman, Nebraska-Omaha, Chicago State, Southern U, Loyola New Orleans, Navy, Nicholls State and Texas Pan Am. Just to give you an example of how easy of a schedule that is, there was only one line set in those eight games. Tulane has only had four lined games all season.

Tulane is 1-10 ATS in home games when playing their 2nd game in 3 days since 1997. The Green Wave are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Tulane is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. These five trends combine for a 35-2 (95%) system backing the Waves. Roll with Pepperdine Thursday.

15* Thunder/Timberwolves TNT Total DOMINATOR on OVER 199

The books have set the bar too low tonight in this contest between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves. I look for a high-scoring affair as both teams score at least 100 in this one while combining for 200-plus by game's end.

Oklahoma City has been scoring at will while playing tremendous basketball over the past month. The Thunder have won 15 of their last 16 games overall. The biggest reason for their success has been their offensive efficiency considering they have score 100-plus points in 15 of those 16 contests.

Minnesota has not been good defensively of late, which is a big reason why the OVER is 4-1 in the Timberwolves' last five games overall. They have given up 102 or more points in five straight contests, so the Thunder are certainly in line to put up at least 100 in this one.

A look at the recent meetings between these teams and it's easy to see that the books have set the number too low tonight. Each of the last 10 meetings in this series dating back to 2010 have seen 201 or more combined points. In fact, eight of those contests have seen 214 or more combined points. This makes for a perfect 10-0 system backing the OVER in this one. Take the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Loyola-Marymount +8.5

The Loyola-Marymount Lions are showing awesome value as a 7.5-point home underdog to the Ole Miss Rebels tonight. Ole Miss is way overvalued due to its 7-1 start to the season, while Loyola-Marymount is undervalued because of its mediocre 5-4 start.

It's easy to see why Ole Miss has gotten off to a 7-1 start considering it has played seven of its first eight games at home. Those seven home wins came against Mississippi Valley State, Coastal Carolina, Arkansas-Little Rock, McNeese State, Lipscomb, East Tennessee State and Rutgers. Its only road game this season resulted in a 62-65 loss at Middle Tennessee State.

Loyola-Marymount has played a much more difficult schedule as six of its first nine games have been on the road. The Lions have gone 2-1 at home this season with their only loss coming to Long Beach State by three points with a final of 70-73.

I really like the balance of this team as they have four players averaging in double figures scoring, led by Anthony Ireland (21.1 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 4.8 APG). They also recently got guard Bruce English (10.0 PPG) back from injury.

Loyola-Marymount is 7-0 ATS in home games versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots over the last 2 seasons. The Lions are 6-0 ATS in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. These two trends combine for a perfect 13-0 system that has not lost over the last two years. Bet Loyola-Marymount Wednesday.

15* Hornets/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +13.5

The New Orleans Hornets are showing great value as a 13.5-point underdog to the Los Angeles Clippers Wednesday night. This number has been inflated, and we'll take advantage by backing the dog in the final game on the board tonight.

The Clippers are overvalued due to their current 10-game winning streak. The betting public is now all over this team due to this streak, which has forced the oddsmakers to set this number higher than it should be.

New Orleans will be amped up for this game to try and end the Clippers' winning streak, while also trying to put a halt to their own eight-game slide. They nearly ended it in their past two games, falling 94-95 at Portland as a 5-point dog, and 96-103 at Golden State as a 7.5-point dog.

New Orleans just recently got Anthony Davis back from injury, and he is clearly their most important player as he ranks 2nd in the team in scoring (14.6), 1st in blocks (2.0), 1st in rebounds (8.2) and 1st in steals (1.4).

The Hornets won their first meeting with the Clippers this season 105-98 on the road on November 26th as a 13-point underdog, and they didn't even have Davis for that contest. With him in the line-up this time around, he'll make life very difficult on Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan of Los Angeles.

This play falls into a system that is 61-26 (70.1%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road underdogs (NEW ORLEANS) - cold team - having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games against opponent hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games.

New Orleans is 29-12 ATS in road games after 4 or more consecutive losses since 1996. The Hornets are 27-14 ATS as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons. The Clippers are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. The Hornets are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 0 days rest. Roll with New Orleans Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Cavs/Celtics UNDER 192

Both the Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics will be fatigued tonight after playing Tuesday. This will be the second of a back-to-back for both squads as Boston fell 89-100 at Chicago, while Cleveland lost 99-113 at home to Toronto.

The fact that both teams lost actually works in our favor here. Cleveland has lost four straight now, and it will be fighting extra hard defensively to try and get a win. Boston has dropped three straight while allowing at least 100 points in all three road losses to Houston, San Antonio and Chicago. It will certainly be laying it all on the line defensively tonight.

The recent history between these teams indicates that the total has been inflated tonight. The Celtics and Cavaliers have combined for 169, 183 and 175 points in each of their last three meetings, respectively.

This play falls into a system that is 32-9 (78%) to the UNDER since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (CLEVELAND) - off a upset loss as a favorite against opponent off 2 consecutive road losses by 10 points or more.

Cleveland is 17-5 to the UNDER after a combined score of 205 points or more 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Boston is 29-16 to the UNDER when playing on back-to-back days over the last 3 seasons, including 4-0 to the UNDER in its last four games playing on 0 days' rest. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA on ESPN TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Knicks/Nets UNDER 194.5

The New York Knicks take on the Brooklyn Nets tonight in what will be one of the best rivalries in the league for years to come. These rivals are already very familiar with each other having played each other twice.

Brooklyn won the first meeting 96-89 in overtime on November 26th, while New York took the second 100-97. The Nets shot 52.9% in that game, while the Knicks made 14 of 28 (50%) from 3-point range. So, this will be their 3rd meeting in less than a month.

Neither team is likely to shoot as well as it did in the last meeting. Their familiarity with one another will lead to a low-scoring affair tonight. Plus, Carmelo Anthony is banged up and questionable to go tonight for New York after missing the past two games due to injury.

The UNDER is 4-0 in Nets last 4 games playing on 0 days rest. The UNDER is 23-7 in Nets last 30 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The UNDER is 34-16-2 in Nets last 52 road games. The UNDER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in New York. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on The Citadel +20.5

The Citadel Bulldogs are showing solid value as a 20.5-point underdog to St. Bonaventure tonight. The books have inflated this number quite a bit in a game that the Bonnies will not take seriously.

St. Bonaventure is off to a 6-3 start this season, but it really doesn't have an impressive win on its resume. It has been favored in all but two games this season, and it lost both of those contests as an underdog to Ohio and Arkansas State.

Off a huge 87-53 win over Cleveland State, and with a Top 25 opponent in NC State on deck Saturday, St. Bonaventure is in a big letdown spot. It will be looking ahead to that game against the Wolfpack, and it won't give The Citadel the attention it will take to cover this big spread tonight.

The Citadel is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games overall. The Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. This is simply a great situation to back the Bulldogs given the state of mind of St. Bonaventure coming in. Take The Citadel Wednesday.

20* Hornets/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 193

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the New Orleans Hornets and Golden State Warriors. Both teams are better defensively than they get credit for, and neither is explosive offensively.

New Orleans is scoring just 91.9 points/game and giving up 98.1 points/game. Its defensive numbers will continue to improve as long as Anthony Davis stays healthy. He has missed the majority of their games and he just recently returned.

Golden State is scoring 99.6 points/game and allowing 98.4 points/game, including 96.9 points/game at home. Mark Jackson has this team playing the way he envisioned when he took over, which is defense first.

Taking a look at the recent history between these teams, it's easy to see that there is value with the UNDER. Golden State and New Orleans have combined to score 193 or less points in four straight meetings. That includes an 83-81 Hornets' home victory in their most recent showdown.

This play falls into a system that is 38-11 (77.6%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (GOLDEN STATE) - off an upset win as a road underdog, playing with 2 days rest. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -2

The Milwaukee Bucks should be a much bigger home favorite tonight over the Indiana Pacers. This is one of the most underrated teams in the league, and they continue going under the radar despite a solid 12-10 start.

Milwaukee has won four of its last five games overall, which includes an impressive road win at Brooklyn. Its only loss came last time out to the Los Angeles Clippers as nothing went right offensively. Turns out that wasn't such a bad loss considering the Clippers have won 10 in a row and counting.

These teams have already met once this season with Milwaukee topping Indiana 99-85 at home on November 14th. That game was even more of a blowout than the final score would indicate as the Bucks took a 60-34 lead into halftime before calling off the dogs after intermission.

Indiana is getting too much respect due to its three-game winning streak that has come against the Cavs, 76ers and Pistons. The Pacers are 16-32 ATS in their last 48 road games following two straight wins by 10 points or more. Indiana is 11-27 ATS after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. Take the Bucks Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Jazz/Nets UNDER 193

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Utah Jazz and Brooklyn Nets. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle Tuesday in Brooklyn as neither team surpasses 95 points in this one.

The Nets are averaging 95.9 points/game this season while allowing 93.8 points/game. That's an average combined score of 189.3 points/game between the Nets and their opponents this season. This team is built for the half court, and they'll control the tempo playing at home tonight.

The UNDER is 3-0 in Utah's last three games overall. The Jazz have really struggled offensively in their last two contests, falling 84-99 to Phoenix on December 14th and 86-99 to Memphis the following night.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Jazz last 5 games playing on 2 days rest. The UNDER is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 Tuesday games. The UNDER is 5-0-1 in Nets last 6 games following a ATS win. These three trends combine for a 14-0 system backing the UNDER. Also, the UNDER is 9-3 in Nets last 12 games playing on 2 days rest. Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* T'Wolves/Heat NBA Tuesday No-Brainer on Minnesota +9

The Minnesota Timberwolves are finally starting to get healthy, and this is going to be a very dangerous team going forward because of it. They have opened 12-10 despite battling through injuries all season.

Sure, Minnesota blew a 12-point halftime lead to fall to Orlando last night 93-102. However, it was likely overlooking the Magic and looking ahead to this contest against the defending champion Miami Heat tonight.

The Timberwolves will be giving a much better effort in this one. They had been playing very well before that loss last night. They have still won six of their last eight games overall, and they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 contests.

Minnesota is 15-3 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. The Timberwolves are 11-2 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 2 seasons. The Heat are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Bet the Timberwolves Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Winthrop +29

This is a huge letdown spot for the No. 7 Ohio State Buckeyes (8-1). They have a home game against No. 9 Kansas on deck, and it's only human nature for them to look ahead to that game this Saturday.

Because Ohio State will be overlooking Winthrop in this one, I have no doubt that they'll be able to stay within 29 points tonight. The Buckeyes are becoming a bit bored after playing Northern Kentucky, Long Beach State, Savannah State and UNC-Asheville all at home in their last four contests.

The Buckeyes started to show signs of getting bored against UNC-Asheville last time out, only winning 90-72 despite coming in as a 25.5-point favorite. Wintrop is off to a 4-4 start this season with only one of its losses coming by more than 15 points. It is coming off an impressive 50-49 win at Ohio (7-3) last time out. Take Winthrop Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are one of the most underrated teams in the league. They have been battling through injuries all year and still find themselves in the playoff hunt in the Western Conference at 12-9.

Minnesota has won four straight and six of seven overall. Ricky Rubio just returned on Saturday, while Kevin Love (flu) missed Saturday's 114-106 overtime victory over Dallas. Both Rubio and Love are expected to be in the line-up together for the first time this season Monday.

These teams already met once this season with Minnesota topping Orlando 90-75 at home on November 7th. With Rubio and Love both in the fold this time around, I'm expecting a similar blowout on the road tonight.

This play falls into a system that is 31-6 (83.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road favorites (MINNESOTA) - after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season. Take the Timberwolves Monday.

15* Detroit/Syracuse ESPN 2 Monday No-Brainer on Detroit +20

The Detroit Titans are showing excellent value tonight as a big road underdog to the Syracuse Orange. They have won four straight to improve to 6-4 on the season. Their only four losses have all come on the road to St. Johns, Miami, Bowling Green and Pittsburgh all by 15 points or less.

Syracuse is way overvalued right now due to its 9-0 start. Sure, it has gone 6-0 ATS in all lined games to this point, but that is another reason why this team is overvalued right now. The Orange have played an extremely easy schedule to this point with seven home games and only one true road game. This will be their toughest home game yet.

This play falls into a system that is 74-30 (71.2%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on underdogs of 10 or more points (DETROIT) - after 2 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 9 or more consecutive wins.

Syracuse is 6-17 ATS in home games after 4 straight wins by 10 points or more since 1997. Detroit is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 vs. Big East opponents. The Orange are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. Horizon League foes. Roll with Detroit Monday.

15* Hornets/Blazers NBA Sunday Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +5.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are overvalued right now after back-to-back victories over the Raptors and Spurs. They caught the Spurs in a tough spot for San Antonio as they were playing the second of a back-to-back. This also sets the Blazers up for a letdown after such a big win.

New Orleans is highly motivated to put an end to its 6-game losing streak that has featured losses to the Lakers, Grizzlies, Heat, Wizards, Thunder and Timberwolves. That is an absolute brutal schedule, and it certainly gets easier tonight against the 10-12 Blazers.

The Hornets are starting to get healthy as they finally got top pick Anthony Davis back in the line-up recently. Davis' return is huge as he ranks 2nd on the team in scoring (14.6 PPG), 1st in rebounding (7.7 RPG) and 1st in blocks (2.2 BPG).

Portland is 1-11 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. It is actually getting outscored 106.2 to 95.1 in this spot, or by an average of 11.1 points/game. Roll with the Hornets Sunday.

25* NBA Situational GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Bulls -3.5

This is one of the best situations you will see all year in the NBA. All factors point toward a blowout in favor of the Chicago Bulls tonight as they host the Brooklyn Nets.

Chicago comes in fresh as it has had two days' rest since a solid 96-89 victory at Philadelphia on Wednesday. It will use those fresh legs to run the dead tired Nets out of the building tonight.

Brooklyn will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days. If that situation wasn't already tough enough, the Nets are coming off a double-overtime victory over Detroit last night by a final of 107-105. Simply put, they won't have anything left to give against Chicago in this one.

The Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 0 days rest. The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Eastern Conference. Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games overall. Brooklyn is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games overall. Bet the Bulls Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Georgia -1.5

The Georgia Bulldogs are showing their best value of the season as only a 1.5-point favorite over Iona. I look for them to run away with this one by double-digits or close to it by game's end.

Georgia is undervalued right now due to its 2-6 start against a wicked schedule. It has faced the likes of Indiana, UCLA, South Florida and Georgia Tech all on the road for four of its losses. Battle-tested and hungry for a victory, the Bulldogs will be laying it all on the line at home tonight.

Iona is just 3-4 this season, and it should not be getting this much respect from oddsmakers. Its four losses have come to Quinnipiac, Illinois-Chicago, St. Peters and Rutgers. I wouldn't consider any of those four teams to be above-average, and the Gaels lost to them all.

Iona is 2-10 ATS versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% over the last 2 seasons. Georgia is 22-7 ATS in home games after scoring 55 points or less since 1997. The Gaels are 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Bulldogs are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 Saturday games, and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Take Georgia Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Marshall +12.5

The Cincinnati Bearcats are overvalued due to their 9-0 start. They should not be a double-digit favorite Saturday in what will essentially be a home game for Marshall at the Charleston Civic Center in Charleston, WV.

Cincinnati has played an extremely soft schedule this season. It has yet to play a true road games, and its two neutral court contests resulted in wins over both Iowa State and Oregon by 11 points or less.

Marshall is off to a 6-4 start this season with all four of its losses coming by 12 points or less. Two of those defeats came on the road against Villanova and West Virginia, which are two solid basketball programs. This is a Marshall team that returns three starters from a squad that beat Cincinnati 73-69 last year.

This play falls into a system that is 73-36 (67%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against favorites of 10 or more points (CINCINNATI) - after 9 or more consecutive wins, undefeated on the season. This trend really shows how it is profitable to fade overvalued teams that open the season on long winning streaks.

Marshall is a perfect 6-0 ATS vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. It is actually outscoring these top caliber teams by an average of 6.9 points/game over the last 3 years. Take Marshall Saturday.

15* Texas A&M/Oklahoma ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma -3

The Oklahoma Sooners are one of the most underrated teams in the country this season. Head coach Lon Kruger, a proven winner throughout his career, has returned all five starters from last year's team. That includes three double-digit scorers.

The biggest reason this team is undervalued is due to its mediocre 6-2 start. However, both of those losses came on the road to Gonzaga and Arkansas, which are two teams that are better than they get credit for. This will essentially be a home game for the Sooners as it will be played at Chesapeake Energy Arena in Oklahoma City, OK.

Texas A&M is getting way too much respect due to its 7-1 start. It has played a much softer schedule than Oklahoma. Its only tough opponent came against Saint Louis on a neutral court, and the Aggies fell in blowout fashion 70-49. They have only played one true road game all season.

This play falls into a system that is 72-35 (67.3%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on any team (OKLAHOMA) - off a close road loss by 3 points or less, with all five starters returning from last season. The Aggies are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games. Roll with Oklahoma Saturday.

20* NBA on ESPN GAME OF THE MONTH on Denver Nuggets -1

The Denver Nuggets are one of the most undervalued teams in the league right now due to their 11-12 start. The Memphis Grizzlies are certainly overvalued due to their 14-5 start, and that is starting to show as they have lost two straight coming in despite being heavy favorites in both.

The biggest reason Denver is just 10-11 right now is due to a brutal schedule. It has played a ridiculous 17 road games compared to just 6 home games to this point. Following a five-game road trip, there's no question that it will be excited to return home tonight.

The Nuggets are 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS at home this season. They are scoring 103.8 points/game and allowing 94.0 points/game, outscoring their opponents by an average of 9.8 points/game at home this year.

Denver is 27-3 in all home meetings with Memphis since 1996. The Grizzlies are 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The Nuggets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Bet Denver Friday.

15* Celtics/Rockets ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 206.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this nationally televised showdown on ESPN. Any time a game involving the Boston Celtics has a total set over 200, the UNDER is certainly worth a look. I look for the defensive intensity to be at a high level for both teams in this National TV battle.

Boston has already played in four overtime games this season, including their 117-115 victory over Dallas in double overtime on Wednesday. Even with those four OT games included, the Celtics are still averaging just 98.3 points/game and giving up 97.5 points/game on the season.

Houston has also been a part of three overtime games already, which is certainly more than average as well. The Rockets are scoring 104.2 points/game and allowing 104.8 points/game on the season.

Boston is combining with its opponents to average 195.8 points/game, while Houston is combining with its opponents to average 209.0 points/game. Add those numbers up and divide by two and we get an average of 202.4 points/game, which would be the expected total if these teams played each other. We're getting a full 4 points of value here with the UNDER, and I believe it's even more than that considering these teams have combined to play in 7 overtime games already.

The two most recent meetings between these teams have been extremely low scoring. Houston beat Boston 93-77 at home on 3/18/11 for 170 combined points. Boston topped Houston 97-92 in overtime on 3/6/12 in a game that was tied 84-84 at the end of regulation for a combined 168 points. The UNDER is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Houston.

This play falls into a system that is 71-36 (66.4%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (BOSTON) - well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season. Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Orlando Magic +5

The Golden State Warriors are overvalued right after having won eight of their last nine games overall. There's no question that this team is better than it was expected to be, but they should not be favored at Orlando tonight.

Golden State's only loss during this stretch came at home to Orlando by a final of 94-102 on December 3rd. After winning five straight road games to start this 7-game trip, the Warriors are in a huge letdown spot tonight.

They are coming off a win over the defending champion Miami Heat 97-95 on Wednesday. After earning their biggest win of the season, there's no question the Warriors will have a hard time getting up to face the Magic tonight.

Orlando has won seven of its last eight meetings with Golden State. Its only loss since 2008 came in overtime by a final of 123-120 on the road. The Magic are 37-16-1 ATS in their last 54 vs. NBA Pacific opponents. The Warriors are 3-8 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Orlando. Take the Magic Friday.

15* Lakers/Knicks TNT Total ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 208

The Los Angeles Lakers and New York Knicks will take part in a defensive battle tonight. This game will be nationally televised on TNT, which tends to bring up the defensive intensity from both teams.

New York is one of the better defensive teams in the league as they give up 95.3 points/game on the season, including 91.2 points/game at home. The Knicks have allowed less than 100 points in eight of their last nine games overall.

The Lakers are yielding a respectable 98.8 points/game and they are certainly putting emphasis on their play at this end of the floor after a tough recent stretch. They have lost five of their last six contests, so this team will be giving a little bit extra at the defensive end to try and pick up a big win.

A look at the recent history between these teams makes it easy to see that this total has been inflated. The home team won their two most recent meetings. Los Angeles won 99-82 on 12/29/11 for 181 combined points, while New York won 92-85 on 02/10/12 for 177 combined points. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

New York is a perfect 8-0 to the UNDER as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 2 seasons. We're seeing an average of 184.1 combined points/game in this spot. The Lakers are 14-4 to the UNDER after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 34-15-2 in Lakers last 51 Thursday games. The UNDER is 16-7 in Knicks last 23 Thursday games. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Spurs/Jazz ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 210

Oddsmakers have inflated this total due to recent performances from both teams that were very high-scoring. I'll take advantage by backing the UNDER in a game that will be nationally televised on ESPN, which always tends to bring out stronger defensive intensity by both teams.

San Antonio just beat Houston 134-126 in overtime for 260 combined points. Utah just beat the Lakers 117-110 on the road for 227 combined points. Both the Rockets and Lakers have been atrocious on the defensive end recently, which is the biggest reason for those high-scoring affairs. Oddsmakers have been forced to set this total too high based on those recent performances, knowing that the betting public would jump on the OVER if they didn't.

Taking a look at this series between the Spurs and Jazz, it's easy to see that this number has been inflated. Each of the last six meetings in this series have seen 210 or less combined points. Six of the last seven meetings in Utah have seen 208 or less combined points. Utah is only giving up 93.6 points/game at home this season, while San Antonio is yielding 97.3 points/game in all games this year.

The Jazz are 18-5 to the UNDER in home games after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games since 1996. Utah is 70-47 to the UNDER in a home game where the total is 200 to 209.5 since 1996. The Jazz are 22-10 to the UNDER in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 games playing on 2 days rest. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte Bobcats +8.5

The Charlotte Bobcats are showing solid value as an 8.5-point home underdog to the Los Angeles Clippers tonight. The value is simply too good to pass up, and I'll gladly fade the public and put my smart money on the big home dog in this one.

This is an extremely tough spot for a Clippers team that is way overvalued due to its seven-game winning streak. Los Angeles will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days. It is coming off a big 94-89 road win at Chicago on National TV last night, setting it up for a big letdown spot tonight in Charlotte.

The Bobcats are way undervalued right now due to their current eight-game losing streak. This skid has come against a brutal schedule as their eight opponents have been the Thunder, Hawks, 76ers, Blazers, Knicks, Bucks, Spurs and Warriors. Four of their five home losses during this stretch have come by 8 points or less. Fresh on one days' rest, and motivated to put an end to this losing streak, the Bobcats will be giving better effort tonight than the Clippers.

The Clippers are 19-38 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games since 1996. Los Angeles is 37-60 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1996. The Clippers are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 road games vs. a team with a losing home record, and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games overall. Los Angeles only has one true road win by more than 5 points this season. Take the Bobcats Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Nets/Raptors UNDER 188.5

There are two main reasons that I believe this game finishes well below the posted total tonight. Both the Brooklyn Nets and the Toronto Raptors will struggle to reach 90 points because of these two factors.

First, Brooklyn is a tired team right now as it will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 3rd game in 4 days. I look for the Nets to play at a slower tempo offensively because of it. This is an excellent team defensively as the Nets are allowing just 94.0 points/game overall and 91.1 points/game on the road. They are only scoring 93.0 points/game on the road as well.

Toronto is likely to be without two of its top three scorers tonight. Andrea Bargnani (16.0 PPG) is doubtful with an elbow injury, while Kyle Lowry (15.8 PPG, 5.8 APG) is doubtful with a tricep injury. Not having Bargnani's shooting and Lowry's ability to run the offense and create open looks for teammates is really going to hamper Toronto's offense tonight.

Toronto is 10-1 to the UNDER in home games after a game where they made 85% of their free throws or better over the last 2 seasons. We're seeing an average of 176.5 points/game in this situation. The UNDER is 20-5-2 in Brooklyn's last 27 road games. The UNDER is 17-4 in Raptors last 21 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Line Mistake on Cleveland Cavaliers +7

The Cleveland Cavaliers should not be catching 7 points to the overrated Los Angeles Lakers tonight. I'll gladly side with the value and back the home dog in a game I believe the Cavaliers can win outright.

Cleveland welcomes back point guard Kyrie Irving from a broken finger. He practiced Monday and is expected to play tonight. His return will be a huge boost to a Cleveland team that has struggled to score of late. Irving leads the team in scoring (22.9) and assists (5.6), and he's the heart and soul of this team.

"I think all the guys are looking forward to having Irving back out there because he does make most of our guys' job a lot easier because he creates so much for himself and for his teammates," coach Byron Scott said. "I'm sure the guys will be happy to have him back out there."

The Lakers are way overvalued this season as they are just 9-12 straight up and 9-12 against the spread. They remain without two All-Stars in Pau Gasol and Steve Nash, and they have really struggled without these two. Los Angeles has lost four of its last five games overall. Its biggest weakness is defending quick point guards like Irving.

The Lakers are 0-11 ATS in their last 11 Tuesday games. Los Angeles is 16-34-1 ATS in its last 51 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The home team has won four straight in this series, and three of those four meetings were decided by 6 points or less. Take the Cavaliers Tuesday.

20* Knicks/Nets ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on UNDER 194

Both the New York Knicks and Brooklyn Nets are improved defensively this season. I believe oddsmakers have set the bar too high tonight in this rivalry. The defensive intensity will be very high between these two teams in a nationally televised game on ESPN.

These teams already met once this season with Brooklyn topping New York 96-89 at home on November 26th in overtime. That game was tied 84-84 at the end of regulation for 168 combined points, and I look for a similarly low-scoring affair tonight. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in this series.

The Knicks are yielding just 95.2 points/game this season. They have been an improved defensive team ever since Mike Woodson took over as head coach. The Nets have been even better on this end of the floor, yielding a mere 93.7 points/game on the season. Off four straight losses, I look for Brooklyn to up its defensive intensity even more tonight.

Brooklyn is 8-1 to the UNDER versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game this season. New York is 32-17 to the UNDER as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. The Knicks are 14-4 to the UNDER in road games after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 5-0-1 in Nets last 6 games playing on 1 days rest. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Duquesne +8.5

The Duquesne Dukes should not be catching 8.5 points at home tonight to the overrated West Virginia Mountaineers. This is a game I easily see them covering, and possibly winning outright Tuesday. West Virginia is in a big letdown spot following a 68-67 home victory over Virginia Tech last time out.

West Virginia is just 4-3 on the season, including a 50-84 loss to Gonzaga. It also lost to Davidson and Oklahoma on a neutral court. The Mountaineers lost their top two scorers from last season in Kevin Jones and Daryl Bryant, who combined for nearly 37 points/game. They have struggled without these two.

Duquesne is 5-4 on the season with its only losses coming to Albany (69-66), Georgetown (55-61), North Dakota State (43-57) and Pittsburgh (45-66). Those four teams have a combined 33-6 (85%) record on the season. That 55-61 loss at Georgetown really shows what this team is capable of because the Hoyas are one of the best teams in the country.

The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in this series. Duquesne hast lost its last two home meetings with West Virginia by finals of 61-64 and 63-68. The Mountaineeers are 6-15 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. West Virginia is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Roll with Duquesne Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/Blazers UNDER 196

This contest between the Portland Trail Blazers and Toronto Raptors Monday sets up for a low-scoring affair. Both teams are in tough spots that will limit their ability to score the basketball.

Toronto will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 5th road game in 8 days. It showed signs of wearing down last night, scoring just 83 points in a 19-point loss to the Los Angeles Clippers.

Portland will likely be playing without two starters tonight. Nicolas Batum (16.4 PPG, 5.8 RPG) is expected to miss his third straight game with a back injury, while Wesley Matthews (16.0 PPG) is doubtful with a hip injury.

Portland has lost two straight without Batum, including an ugly 80-99 home loss to the Kings last time out. The Blazers really cannot afford to be down two starters because they have the worst bench in the league.

Their bench ranks 30th in scoring (14.9 points/game), which is 9.0 points worse than the 29th-ranked bench (Lakers). They are really going to miss the 32.4 points that Batum and Mathews combine to average. I look for Portland to slow down the tempo and run its offense through LaMarcus Aldridge in this one.

The UNDER is 19-7-1 in Raptors last 27 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The UNDER is 4-1 in Raptors last 5 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The UNDER is 9-3-1 in Blazers last 13 games following a ATS loss. Roll with the UNDER In this game Monday.

15* Hawks/Heat NBA Monday No-Brainer on UNDER 195

With first place on the line tonight in the NBA's Southeast Division, the Miami Heat (13-5) host the Atlanta Hawks (12-5) in a battle between easily the two best teams in this division. I look for the defensive intensity to rise more than your normal game in this one.

Miami has been talking about playing better defense after back-to-back losses to the Wizards and Knicks in which they allowed a combined 217 points. They did play much better their last time out on this end, limiting the Hornets to 90 points on 44.9 percent shooting.

"We didn't do everything right," coach Erik Spoelstra said. "We still had a handful of breakdowns. But the commitment on the defensive end was better than the past two games."

Atlanta continued its solid play defensively with a 93-83 road win at Memphis last time out. It is allowing just 93.6 points per game on 43.3 percent shooting on the season, including 90.4 points on 42.9 percent shooting on the road.

This has been a very low scoring series in the past. In fact, Miami and Atlanta have combined to score 195 or less points at the end of regulation in 15 straight meetings. Fourteen of those saw 194 or fewer points. That makes for a perfect 14-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set. Take the UNDER 195 points in this game Monday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Phoenix Suns -3.5

The Phoenix Suns will roll at home tonight over the Orlando Magic. Phoenix comes into this game way undervalued, while Orlando is certainly overvalued due to recent results. Getting the Suns as only a 3.5-point home favorite is a gift from oddsmakers.

Phoenix is going to be highly-motivated for a win following six straight losses. The biggest reason for this losing streak is a tough schedule that has featured seven of their last eight games on the road. The Suns will certainly be looking forward to returning home tonight where they are 5-4.

Orlando is overvalued due to winning its first two games against the Lakers and Warriors on its current five-game road stand. It has lost its last two, and now it will be fatigued coming into this one as this will be its 5th road game in 8 days. The Magic are clearly one of the worst teams in the league, and they are just 3-7 on the road this season.

The home team has won eight of the last nine meetings in this series. The favorite is a perfect 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings dating back to 2009. The Magic are 4-14 ATS after playing 3 consecutive road games over the last 3 seasons. The Suns are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 Sunday games. Phoenix is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Bet the Suns Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Nebraska-Omaha +30.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are coming off their biggest game of the season. They lost to in-state rival Iowa 71-80 on Friday to fall to 6-3 on the season. Just two days later, I look for the Cyclones to suffer a hangover effect from that defeat.

Iowa State will have a very hard time getting up emotionally to play a Nebraska-Omaha team that is 2-8 on the season. The biggest reason for their poor record is the difficulty of their schedule. They have already played eight road games, including a 62-75 loss at Nebraska. After playing at Wisconsin last time out, this team will not be intimidated by Iowa State on the road.

This play falls into a system that is 87-35 (71.3%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet against home favorites of 10 or more points (IOWA ST) - off a road loss, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a terrible team (<=20%).

This play falls into another system that is 29-6 (82.9%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road underdogs of 10 or more points (NEBRASKA-OMAHA) - a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG) against a good defensive team (63-67 PPG), after allowing 75 points or more 2 straight games. Roll with Nebraska-Omaha Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday West Coast BAILOUT on Pacific -2.5

Pacific should be a much heavier home favorite tonight over San Francisco. This is a much-improved Tigers team that returned all five starters from last year. I know they are just 4-4 on the year, but they have played a ridiculously tough schedule.

Pacific's four losses have come against Gonzaga, California, Oral Roberts and Fresno State. It has wins on a neutral court over both Xavier and St. Mary's despite being an 8-point dog against the Musketeers, and a 10-point dog against the Gaels. It also beat Nevada last time out at home.

San Francisco is simply overvalued due to its 5-1 start against a very soft schedule. It has played four of those six games at home, while losing to Stanford 62-74 on a neutral court, and winning at American in its only true road game. This road trip to Pacific will be the Dons' toughest game of the season to this point.

Pacific is a perfect 6-0 ATS in home games off a home win over the last 3 seasons. It is outscoring teams by an average of 11.9 points/game in this spot. The Dons are 6-22-1 ATS in their last 29 vs. Big West. The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. WCC opponents. Roll with Pacific Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total ANNIHILATOR on 76ers/Celtics UNDER 187.5

This one is about as obvious as it gets folks. It sets up perfectly for a low-scoring game, and I look for Boston and Philadelphia to not even come close to approaching this 187.5-point total.

Both teams will be playing the second of a back-to-back in this home and home situation. Making matters tougher for both teams is the fact that they went to overtime last night, and looked very tired down the stretch. They combined for just 178 points at the end of regulation, and 189 points after OT.

Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett were really dragging for the Celtics, while the 76ers time and time again were up against the shot clock down the stretch. The familiarity between these teams after playing last night will make points extremely tough to come by.

Pierce, Rajon Rondo and Jason Terry all played more than 42 minutes for the Celtics last night, while Jrue Holiday, Jason Richardson, Evan Turner and Thaddeus Young played more than 41 minutes for the 76ers.

The UNDER is 6-2 in 76ers last 8 road games. The UNDER is 7-3 in 76ers last 10 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes on the previous day. The UNDER is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 games playing on 0 days' rest. The UNDER is 13-4-1 in Celtics last 18 Saturday games. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Richmond -3

The Richmond Spiders should be a bigger favorite over James Madison Saturday. With three starters back, head coach Chris Mooney once again has an underrated squad. Richmond is off to a 7-2 start this season with its only losses coming on the road at Minnesota (10.5-point dog) and Ohio (7.5-point dog).

James Madison is just 3-5 on the season and should not be getting this much respect from oddsmakers. It has some ugly losses this season, including a 30-point loss to UCLA, a 22-point loss to North Dakota State, and an 18-point loss to Miami (Ohio). Its only wins have come against East Tennessee State, Winthrop and Youngstown State.

This play falls into a system that is 50-19 (72.5%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (RICHMOND) - off a road win, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a bad team (20% to 40%).

James Madison is 1-9 ATS versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. James Madison is 0-10 ATS in home games on Saturday games over the last 3 seasons. The Dukes are 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 home games overall. Bet Richmond Saturday.

15* Arkansas/Michigan CBS Saturday No-Brainer on Arkansas +16.5

The Arkansas Razorbacks are much improved in Mike Anderson's second year on the job. Sure, they are just 4-3 this season, but they have played a very tough schedule. They have already faced Syracuse, Wisconsin, Arizona State and Oklahoma. They didn't lose any of those four games by more than 15 points, and they lost by just 7 to Wisconsin and by 9 to Syracuse.

Michigan has a very good good team this season. However, they are overvalued due to their 8-0 start. They beat Pitt by 5, Kansas State by 14, NC State by 7 and Bradley by 8. If those four teams could stay within 16 points of the Wolverines, I have no doubt that Arkansas can as well.

This play falls into a system that is 58-25 (69.9%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (MICHIGAN) - after 8 or more consecutive wins, undefeated on the season.

This play falls into another system that is 30-9 (76.9%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (ARKANSAS) - poor defensive team - shooting pct defense of >=45% on the season against opponent hot shooting team - 4 straight games making >=47% of their shots. Take Arkansas Saturday.

15* Magic/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento -2.5

The Orlando Magic are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers as just a 2.5-point underdog to the Sacramento Kings tonight. I look for the home team to roll to a double-digit victory and easily cover this generous spread Friday.

Sacramento realizes it needs to start stringing some wins together if it wants to have any chance of making the playoffs come season's send. It is coming off a solid 107-100 home victory over Toronto. This team will be fresh and ready to go tonight as this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days.

Orlando is on its fourth game of a grueling five-game road trip. It is getting way too much respect for victories over the Lakers and Warriors to start this trip as both of those teams were likely over looking the Magic. This will be their 4th road game in 6 days, and they won't be able to match the energy level of the Kings on their tired legs.

The Magic are 33-51 ATS after playing a road game over the last 3 seasons. Sacramento has won 10 of its last 15 home meetings with Orlando. The Kings are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win. Roll with Sacramento Friday.

20* Lakers/Thunder ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 210.5

These familiar foes will do battle tonight on ESPN in front of a nationally televised audience. Oklahoma State took out Los Angeles in five games in the playoffs last season, so there is sure to be some added intensity in this one tonight.

I look for that added intensity to lead to a lower-scoring, defensive battle. I believe oddsmakers have simply set the bar too high in this one. When you look at recent meetings between these teams, it's easy to see that is the case.

Eight straight meetings (not including overtime) between the Lakers and Thunder have seen 209 or less combined points at the end of regulation. In fact, six of those eight meetings saw 196 or less points. That makes for a perfect 8-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set.

Los Angeles is running a new system under Mike D'Antoni, but that system cannot be 100% effective without two important pieces. Steve Nash remains out with a leg injury, while Pau Gasol is doubtful as he deals with a knee injury. The Lakers' offense will not be hitting on all cylinders tonight.

This play falls into a system that is 35-9 (79.5%) to the UNDER since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - excellent shooting team (>=47.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%), hot shooting team - 2 straight games making >=50% of their shots. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Denver Nuggets +1.5

The Denver Nuggets should not be an underdog to the Indiana Pacers tonight in a game I believe they'll win outright. They are the better team and will simply want this one more.

Denver has lost four of its last five games, including three road losses by a combined 7 points to the Jazz, Warriors and Hawks. It will be highly motivated for a victory after this tough recent stretch, and I still believe this is one of the best teams in the league, which will show by season's end.

Indiana has won four of its last five coming in and will relax because of it. The Pacers are riding high right now because all four of those wins have come by a combined 18 points, so they have been pulling games late. With a road trip to Oklahoma City on deck, the Pacers could be overlooking the Nuggets here.

The Nuggets are 40-24 ATS as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons. Indiana is 5-17 ATS after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. The Pacers are 17-37 ATS off a home win over the last 3 seasons. Denver is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 vs. NBA Central foes, and 11-4 ATS in its last 15 meetings with Indiana. Take the Nuggets Friday.

15* Knicks/Heat TNT Total ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 201

This is one of the biggest games of the early season. New York wants to show Miami that it is a legitimate contender in the East with a win tonight. I look for the defensive intensity to be at the highest level for both teams and for points to be very hard to come by.

These teams already met once this season on November 2nd with New York beating Miami 104-84 for 188 combined points. I look for a similar final combined total tonight as this one stays well below the number.

In fact, the Knicks and Heat have combined to score 200 or less points in 11 straight meetings. That makes for a perfect 11-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set.

This play falls into a system that is 46-14 (76.7%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (MIAMI) - after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Nebraska +7

The Nebraska Cornhuskers should not be an underdog at home to the Creighton Blue Jays tonight, let alone a 7-point dog. Creighton comes in way overvalued as the No. 16 team in the country, and they simply cannot live up to the expectations against the spread that they have created for themselves.

Nebraska is certainly one of the most underrated teams in the country. It is off to a 6-1 start this season that includes wins over Valparaiso, Wake Forest and USC. While the Huskers return just one starter, they have three veteran players leading this team. They are seniors Dylan Talley (15.6 PPG, 6.0 RPG) and Brandon Ubel (14.0 PPG, 6.9 RPG) as well as junior Ray Gallegos (14.0 PPG).

Home-court advantage has been huge in this in-state rivalry between Creighton and Nebraska. The home team has won seven straight meetings in this series. Creighton's last win at Nebraska came back in 2004 by a final of 50-48. This will be the first true road game for the Blue Jays all season, which is always tough.

The Bluejays are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Creighton is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 road games overall. Nebraska is 26-10 ATS in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game since 1997. Roll with Nebraska Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -8

Off three straight losses to the Thunder, Rockets and Clippers, I look for the Utah Jazz to bounce back with a blowout home victory tonight over the Orlando Magic. There's no question the Jazz will be highly motivated after blowing a 14-point lead in the second half to lose 104-105 to the Clippers last time out.

This is the perfect storm. Utah will be hungry for a win, while Orlando is in a huge letdown spot following back-to-back road wins over the Lakers and Warriors. It's only human nature for the Magic to let down after those two big wins, and they won't be able to match the intensity of the Jazz because of it.

Utah is 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 7.8 points/game. It is only allowing 94.6 points/game on 42.0% shooting at home this year. Points will certainly be hard to come by for an Orlando team that is only averaging 90.6 points/game on 41.9% shooting on the road.

The Jazz are a 4-1 SU and a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with Orlando. They have won each of their last three home meetings with the Magic by 9 points or more, and that was when they had Dwight Howard. Take the Jazz Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Charlotte Bobcats +8

The Miami Heat were overlooking the Washington Wizards last night and looking ahead to their Thursday showdown with the New York Knicks on TNT. They lost to the Wizards last night because they did not give Washington their full attention.

Now, the same will be the case for the Knicks tonight. They will not give the Charlotte Bobcats their full attention as they look ahead to tomorrow's big showdown with the Heat. There is a very good chance New York loses outright because of it as well.

Charlotte will have no problem getting motivated to face the Knicks tonight. It has lost four straight coming in, including the last three all by 6 points or less. The Bobcats blew a late 18-point lead to the Blazers last time out with just over five minutes remaining in regulation, eventually losing in overtime. They will be up for this game because of it.

The Knicks are unbeaten at home this season, but when they leave Madison Square Garden it's another story. New York is just 5-4 on the road this season, outscoring opponents by only 2.7 points/game. Charlotte is a very respectable 5-5 at home this season, and this is certainly a much-improved team from a year ago. Bet the Bobcats Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Memphis -3.5

The Memphis Tigers should be a much bigger favorite at home tonight over the Ohio Bobcats. I'll gladly take advantage of this line mistake and back the Tigers in what I believe will be a blowout in their favor by game's end.

Ohio is simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers due to its 6-1 start. Its six wins have all come at home against lesser competition in Portland, UNC-Wilmington, Wofford, Hampton, Richmond and St. Bonaventure. Its lone loss came on the road by a final of 76-84 against Robert Morris.

Memphis has played a much tougher schedule, which is why it is off to just a 4-2 start this season. Its losses have both come on a neutral court to Minnesota and Virginia Commonwealth. It does have a solid neutral court victory over a very good Northern Iowa team.

Because of the tough schedule, the Tigers are certainly the more battle-tested team coming in, and they'll be more prepared for a quality team like Ohio because of it. The Bobcats will not be ready as this will be by far their toughest test of the season.

Memphis is 3-0 at home this season, winning by an average of 18.7 points/game. It is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 home games overall. The Tigers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Roll with Memphis Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -4

The Chicago Bulls will continue their solid play of late and win their 3rd straight with a victory over the Indiana Pacers tonight by 5-plus points. They have won their last two with home victories over Dallas (101-78) and Philadelphia (93-88).

Indiana ends its four-game road trip tonight. It won against the Lakers and Kings in its first two games on this trip, which has it overvalued. It lost against the Warriors 92-103 on Saturday, and I believe it is still getting too much respect from oddsmakers tonight against the Bulls.

The Pacers are just 4-7 on the road this season where they are scoring a mere 87.5 points/game. They will have a hard time putting the ball in the basket against a Bulls' team that is allowing just 89.6 points/game at home this year.

Chicago is 10-1 in its last 11 home meetings with Indiana, and all ten victories have come by 5 points or more. That makes for a 91% system backing Chicago pertaining to tonight's spread. Take the Bulls Tuesday.

20* Thunder/Nets NBA Tuesday No-Brainer on Brooklyn +4.5

The Brooklyn Nets should not be an underdog at home tonight to the Oklahoma City Thunder. This team has been underrated all season as evidenced by the fact that they are not only 11-5 SU, but a very profitable 10-5-1 ATS at the pay window.

Brooklyn had won five straight before an 89-102 loss at Miami on December 1st. That was a tough spot for the Nets as they were playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. They have had two days' rest since and I believe they are battle-tested after that loss to the defending champs.

The Thunder come in way overvalued due to their five game winning streak which has seen them cover five straight as well. Those five wins came against the 76ers, Bobcats, Rockets, Jazz and Hornets, which is unimpressive to say the least. They finally meet their match tonight in Brooklyn.

The Nets are 7-1 SU & 5-2-1 ATS at home this season where they are giving up a mere 91.1 points/game. Brooklyn is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. This is a much-improved team and it will show that it is a contender for the title with a big win over the Thunder tonight. Bet the Nets Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Georgia +7

The Georgia Bulldogs are undervalued heading into this contest with in-state rival Georgia Tech. They have played, by far, the tougher schedule between these two teams, which has them more battle-tested heading into this rivalry.

Georgia is just 2-5 this season, but three of its losses came on either a neutral court or on the road against the likes of Indiana, UCLA and South Florida. That tough early schedule will have it mentally prepared to face quality teams going forward.

The Yellow Jackets don't have a quality win yet this season, and they should not be favored by 7 points because of it. An 11-point loss to Cal and a 13-point loss to Illinois is more representative of where Georgia Tech is at right now. It has no business being favored by 7 points over what I believe is a better Georgia team.

Four of the last five meetings in this series were decided by 7 points or less. Georgia Tech is 1-8 ATS in home games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 3 seasons. Georgia is 29-13 ATS off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 60 points since 1997. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Roll with Georgia Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Total ANNIHILATOR on Cavs/Pistons UNDER 191

I look for the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Detroit Pistons to take part in a defensive battle tonight. These are two of the worst teams in the league with a combined 9-26 record, and it's largely due to their struggles offensively.

Detroit is scoring just 93.2 points/game this season on 44.1% shooting. However, it has remained competitive due to its ability to defend. It is allowing 96.8 points/game overall and 94.0 points/game at home.

Cleveland is scoring 96.9 points/game on 42.3% shooting. A big reason I like this UNDER tonight is that the Cavs are likely to be without their top two scorers. Kyrie Irving (22.9 PPG) is out with a finger injury, while Dion Waiters (15.2 PPG) is doubtful with an ankle injury. Points will be very hard to come by without these two on the floor.

Both teams are tired right now as well, which usually leads to a low-scoring game. Cleveland will be playing its 7th game in 11 days, and it is coming off a double-overtime loss to Portland on Saturday. Detroit will be playing its 6th game in 9 days following Saturday's 77-92 loss at Dallas.

The UNDER is 40-15 in the last 55 meetings in this series. The UNDER is 9-3 in Pistons last 12 games overall. The UNDER is 6-1 in Pistons last 7 games following a S.U. loss. Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Bobcats PK

The Charlotte Bobcats are one of the most underrated teams in the league. They are off to a 7-8 start this season and should be laying more points to the Portland Trail Blazers (7-10) at home tonight.

Motivated for a win following three straight losses to the Thunder, Hawks and 76ers, the Bobcats will be ready to go as they come in on two days' rest since last playing Philadelphia on Friday, November 30th. They will certainly be the more rested, more motivated team in this one.

Portland is a very tired team right now. This will be its 6th road game in 9 days, and it is coming off a 118-117 double-overtime victory over Cleveland. It has lost four of its five games on this road trip thus far, including setbacks at Washington and Detroit. Off that emotional double OT victory Saturday, the Blazers simply don't have much left in the tank.

Making matters much tougher for the Blazers is the fact that they have the worst bench in the league. Their bench is averaging league-lows of 13.0 minutes and 13.9 points per game. The next-lowest scoring bench is the Lakers at 23.4, so the Blazers have by far the worst bench in the NBA, and it's not even close.

The home team has won four straight and eight of the last 10 meetings in this series. The Blazers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 Monday games. Portland is 7-20-1 ATS in its last 28 games following a win. The Bobcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take the Bobcats Monday.

15* Magic/Lakers NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Orlando +13

The Los Angeles Lakers are overvalued heading into this contest after their best shooting performance of the season on ESPN against the Denver Nuggets on Friday. They scored 122 points, shot 54.0 percent from the floor, and 17-for-33 (51.5%) from 3-point range.

The Lakers are high right now in the eyes of the betting public because of that performance Friday night. Meanwhile, the betting public off afraid of backing a Magic team that has lost three straight to Boston, San Antonio and Brooklyn. That has created some excellent line value for us tonight.

Orlando is 11-1 ATS in road games after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Los Angeles is 5-15 ATS after scoring 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Lakers are 17-35 ATS in their last 52 games following a S.U. win. Los Angeles is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Bet the Magic Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -3

The Boston Celtics are short-handed right now as they are without Rajon Rondo for one more game as he serves the second of his two-game suspension tonight. The Celtics won without him at home against Portland last night, but they won't be so fortunate tonight.

Boston is a team that is getting up there in age and it doesn't handle these second of back-to-back situations very well because of it. That's especially the case tonight as they will be without the youthful Rondo, who can sometimes pull his team through these situations with his energy.

Milwaukee comes in highly motivated for a win after dropping two straight, and five of its last six games overall. It has faced the Heat, the Bulls twice, and the Knicks during this stretch, so the schedule makers have not been kind to them. I just think this is a great time to back the Bucks as they are motivated against a depleted Celtics' squad.

The Celtics are 14-29 ATS when playing on back-to-back days over the last 3 seasons. The Bucks are 39-14-2 ATS in their last 55 vs. NBA Atlantic. Boston is 8-22 ATS after a blowout win by 15 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Milwaukee is 11-1 ATS after playing 3 consecutive games as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. Take the Bucks Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Delaware +20

The Duke Blue Devils are in a huge letdown spot here at home against the Delaware Blue Hens. They are coming off back-to-back wins over Top 5 teams in Louisville and Ohio State. There's no way the Blue Devils will be able to get up emotionally for this game after playing those two schools.

Delaware is one of the most underrated teams in the country. This is much better than a 2-5 team, but what matters is their 5-1 ATS record. They have yet to play a home game this season, and they have played some very good teams extremely tough on the road.

They lost at LaSalle 66-73 as a 7.5-point underdog, at Temple 75-80 as a 12-point underdog, and on a neutral court against Kansas State 63-66 as an 8.5-point dog. They also won at Virginia 59-53 as a 6-point dog. Only one of the Blue Hens' five losses has come by more than 7 points.

Duke's biggest margin of victory this season is 21 points, which came at home against Florida Gulf Coast. They also beat Georgia State at home by 19 points. I have no doubt that Delaware is better than both of those teams, thus they should be able to stay within 20 with no problem. You throw in the situation, and it's not even a question.

The Blue Devils are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games. Duke is 2-10 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. The Blue Devils are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Bet Delaware Saturday.

15* Nuggets/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 205

I look for a defensive battle tonight between the Nuggets and Lakers. For one, playing on the National TV stage always seems to bring out better effort defensively by both teams. Also, the Mike D'Antoni factor has Lakers' totals inflated right now.

That was certainly the case in their 77-79 home loss to Indiana last time out with a total set of 196 points. The Lakers are only giving up 95.5 points/game overall, including 91.3 points/game at home. This is a team that relies on defense to win games, and one that won't be explosive offensively until Steve Nash returns.

Denver is going to be tired following its 105-106 loss at Golden State last night. This is an improved defensive team as well as the Nuggets are only allowing 98.7 points/game this season. They are also down a bit offensively from last season as they average just 99.7 points/game.

When you look at recent history in this series, it's easy to see that there is a ton of value with the UNDER tonight. The Lakers and Nuggets have combined to score 204 or less points in 12 of their last 13 meetings, which makes for a 12-1 (92%) system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +13

The Washington Wizards are undervalued at this point of the season due to their 1-12 start. This team finally has some confidence after beating the Portland Trail Blazers last time out to snap their 12-game losing streak to start the season.

Washington is a much better team than its record would indicate, and there's no question that it should have more wins than one by now. Ten of its 12 losses have come by 10 points or less, which is why it is showing such great value tonight as a 13-point underdog. The Wizards have had a chance to win every game but two in the closing minutes of the 4th quarter.

The New York Knicks are way overvalued right now due to their 10-4 start. There's no question that this is a quality team under head coach Mike Woodson, but they are getting too much respect from the betting public and the oddsmakers tonight. New York could have a hard time getting up emotionally to face the team with the worst record in the NBA.

This play falls into a system that is 42-16 (72.4%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against favorites of 10 or more points (NEW YORK) - tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days, first half of the season. The Wizards are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Knicks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Roll with the Wizards Friday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on South Florida -3

The South Florida Bulls have been one of the most underrated teams in the country dating back to last season. They made the NCAA Tournament last season and were a covering machine down the stretch, especially at home.

The Bulls return four of their top five scorers from last season in F Toarlyn Fitzpatrick (13.0 PPG, 6.7 RPG), G Jawanza Poland (11.0 PPG, 4.7 RPG), G Anthony Collins (7.8 PPG, 8.2 APG) and F Victor Rudd (7.5 PPG, 7.3 RPG). With this nucleus, I would be shocked not to see South Florida in the Big Dance by season's end.

Georgia is just 2-4 this season with its only wins coming against Jacksonville and East Tennessee State at home. It is 0-2 away from home this season, but this will be its first true road game of the year.

The Bulldogs are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games following a S.U. win. The Bulls are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 Friday games. South Florida is 10-2-2 ATS in its last 14 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Take South Florida Friday.

15* Spurs/Heat TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Miami -5.5

The Miami Heat should be a bigger favorite tonight at home against the San Antonio Spurs. They come in on a ridiculous four days' rest having last played on November 24th. They will be chomping at the bit to get back on the floor tonight, and I look for them to run the Spurs to death.

The reason the Heat will look to push the tempo is the fact that San Antonio will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days. This is the toughest situation in the NBA. The Spurs will not be able to match the Heat's energy level, and as a result they'll get blown out of the building.

A blowout in Miami's favor has been a familiar result in recent meetings between these teams. Miami has won the last two meetings by a combined 52 points. It beat San Antonio 110-80 at home on 03/14/11, and then 120-98 on 01/17/12. I look for a similar result in this one given the situation coming in.

The Spurs are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games. Miami is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games playing on 3 or more days rest. These three trends combine for a 19-1 (95%) system backing Miami. Roll with the Heat Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday ATS ANNIHILATOR on Tulsa +16

Wichita State is way overvalued heading into this home showdown with Tulsa Wednesday. The Shockers have opened the season 6-0, creating expectations for themselves that they cannot live up to.

This team lost its top five starters from a year ago and will not be as strong as last year's squad because of it. Wichita State really only has one good win this season with a 53-51 victory at VCU. Five of its six victories have come by 16 points or less.

I believe Tulsa, with new head coach Danny Manning, will easily be able to stay within 16 points of Wichita State. In fact, Tulsa is off to a 4-2 start this season with both losses coming by 16 points or less. Guard James Woodard has led the way with 17.2 points and 5.8 rebounds per game thus far.

This play falls into a system that is 28-9 (75.7%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against favorites of 10 or more points (WICHITA ST) - very good defensive team - shooting pct defense of <=39% on the season, after a game - allowing a shooting pct. of 28% or less.

Tulsa is 6-0 ATS in road games after playing 2 consecutive home games over the last 3 seasons. The Shockers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Each of the last six meetings in this series have been decided by 11 points or less. Roll with Tulsa Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -3.5

This is a big letdown spot for the Brooklyn Nets. They are coming off a huge 96-89 overtime victory over their new biggest rivals in the New York Knicks on Monday. Having already beaten Boston 102-97 at home on November 15th less than two weeks ago, the Nets will have a hard time getting up emotionally for this one.

Boston wants revenge from that 102-97 loss as it gets Brooklyn at home this time around. The Celtics are also playing very solid basketball over the past month as they have won eight over their last 12 games overall. Brooklyn has been dealt an easy schedule thus far as eight of its 13 games have come at home. It is just 2-3 on the road this year.

The home team has won five of the last six meetings in this series. Boston has won six of the last eight meetings. The home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The favorite is 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings.

The Nets are 10-21-1 ATS in their last 32 vs. NBA Atlantic opponents. The Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Brooklyn is 3-14 ATS in road games after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. Bet the Celtics Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +3.5

The Washington Wizards are 0-12 on the season. As a result, the betting public doesn't want to touch them. I'm predicting they get their first win of the season tonight against a very beatable Portland team, but I'll take the points for some insurance.

Washington has had several chances to get that first win, and it is a much better team than its record would indicate. Five of its last six losses came by 7 points or less with the lone exception being the Spurs last time out.

Portland is just 6-8 on the season and a very beatable team. It has lost three straight road games to the Suns, Nets and Pistons to fall to 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS away from home this season. It is getting outscored by a whopping 8.2 points/game on the road in 2012.

The Trail Blazers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 1 days rest. Portland is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The Wizards are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Wednesday games. The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Take the Wizards Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings ML -109

I'll side with the Sacramento Kings on the Money Line Tuesday at home against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Sacramento is undervalued in the early going, and it should be a bigger favorite here with the way it has been playing of late.

Sacramento has gone 2-1 straight up and 3-0 against the spread in its last three games overall. It has blowout home wins over the Lakers (113-97) and the Jazz (108-97) during this stretch. Its only loss came at Utah (102-104) as a 9-point underdog. All four of the Kings' wins have come at home this year.

Minnesota is playing its worst basketball of the season heading into this one. It is 0-5 straight up and 0-5 against the spread in its last five games overall. That includes losses to Charlotte, Portland and Golden State twice. A big reason for the Timberwolves' struggles is that they are banged up health-wise.

The home team is 5-0 in the last five meetings in this series dating back to last season. The Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Minnesota is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games overall. These five trends combine for a perfect 15-0 system backing the Kings. Also, the Timberwolves are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Sacramento. Bet the Kings Tuesday.

15* UNC/Indiana ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on North Carolina +10

The Indiana Hoosiers are way overvalued tonight due to their 6-0 start straight up and their 5-1 mark against the spread. They are also the No. 1 ranked team in the country, which comes with expectations from oddsmakers and the betting public going forward that they cannot live up to.

Indiana has played an extremely soft schedule with games against Bryant, North Dakota State, Sam Houston State, Ball State, Georgia and Georgetown. The Hoyas took the Hoosiers to overtime on a neutral court, so this team is certainly beatable.

North Carolina is undervalued right now due to its 71-82 loss to Butler on a neutral court. The Bulldogs got hot and shot 47.2% from the field. The Tar Heels have not allowed another team to shoot better than 40% this season. They responded with a 112-70 victory over Chaminade last time out to get back on track.

"We tried to challenge them the last couple of days that we've got to play better than that," head coach Roy Williams said of the Tar Heels' trip to Maui where they finished third. "I haven't noticed the extra energy or the bounce because I've worked the dickens out of them."

Williams is a a perfect 7-0 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points as the coach of North Carolina. The Tar Heels are actually winning in this spot by an average score of 75.6 to 74.1. They are clearly undervalued heading into this one. Bet North Carolina Tuesday.

15* ACC/Big Ten Challenge Tuesday Line Mistake on Virginia Tech -1.5

The Virginia Tech Hokies should be a much bigger favorite at home tonight against the Iowa Hawkeyes in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. Iowa is simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers in the early going, while Virginia Tech is getting none.

The Hokies are going under the radar because they switched head coaches in the offseason. James Johnson is fully capable of turning around this program, and he's off to a good start. Johnson had guided Virginia Tech to a perfect 5-0 record thus far.

Virginia Tech returned three starters from last year's team, including leading scorer Erick Green (15.6 PPG), who scored nearly a quarter of the team's points last season (65.1 PPG). Also back are Jarell Eddie (9.1 PPG, 4.8 RPG) and Cadarian Rainers (5.9 PPG, 3.9 RPG). Green leads the team in scoring (24.4 PPG) while Eddie (18.8 PPG) is second thus far.

The Hawkeyes are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games. Iowa is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games vs. ACC opponents. The Hawkeyes are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Hokies are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Take Virginia Tech Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +12.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers should not be catching double-digit points to the Memphis Grizzlies tonight. This line is simply an overreaction for point guard Kyrie Irving being out for at least three more weeks with a broken index finger.

Cleveland has been very competitive without Irving. It has gone 3-0 ATS it its last three games without him, which just shows that he is overvalued as a player when it comes to setting spreads. The Cavs beat Philly 92-83 as a 4.5-point dog, lost at Orlando 104-108 as a 4.5-point dog, and lost at Miami 108-110 after blowing a late 7-point lead as a 15-point dog.

Memphis is certainly overvalued right now due to winning nine of its last 10 games overall. It has created expectations for itself against the spread that it simply cannot live up to right now. Memphis' biggest spread so far has been 7 points, so this 12.5-point spread is by far the most it has been favored by this season.

The Cavaliers have lost their last three meetings at Memphis by a combined 17 points with their biggest loss coming by 8 points. In fact, Cleveland is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 meetings with Memphis. The Grizzlies are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Roll with the Cavaliers Monday.

15* Knicks/Nets TNT Monday No-Brainer on Brooklyn +1

The Brooklyn Nets should not be an underdog at home to the New York Knicks in what is going to be a great rivalry for years to come. I'll side with the undervalued home dog in this one as the Nets take care of business in their new building.

Brooklyn has been dominant at home this season. It is 6-1 SU & 4-2-1 ATS through seven home contests, outscoring opponents by 6.5 points/game on average while limiting them to just 91.4 points/game.

The Knicks are a quality team under head coach Mike Woodson, but I simply believe they are overvalued due to their 9-3 record. All three of their losses have come on the road this season as they are giving up 101.0 points/game away from home.

Both teams are in a tough spot as each will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days. However, I believe that favors the Nets a lot more considering they have the deeper bench. The Knicks really only go 8 guys deep, while the Nets go as many as 11 deep.

The Nets are 6-1-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Brooklyn is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Nets are 4-0-2 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win. The Knicks are 7-19 ATS after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half since 1996. Take the Nets Monday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma +2

The Oklahoma Sooners are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country this season. Lon Kruger is one of the most underrated head coaches in the business, and he'll turn this program around after winning just 15 games in his first year on the job last season.

Oklahoma is off to a great start with a 3-1 record and its only loss coming to Gonzaga. Kruger returned all five starters from last year's team, including three double-digit scorers in SG Steven Pledger (16.2 PPG), F, Romero Osby (12.9 PPG, 7.3 RPG) and F Andrew Fitzgerald (12.1 PPG, 5.0 RPG). Osby and Pledger are their No. 1 and No. 2 scorers this season, respectively.

West Virginia is clearly down this season with a 1-2 start that has featured a 34-point loss to Gonzaga and another loss to Davidson. The Mountaineers had to replace their two leading scorers from a year ago in Kevin Jones and Darryl Bryant, who combined for almost 37 PPG. They haven't been able to recover.

The Mountaineers are 20-44 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less since 1997. Bob Huggins is 12-26 ATS when the line if +3 to -3 as the coach of West Virginia. Huggins is 14-27 ATS when playing their 3rd game in a week as the coach of West Virginia. The Mountaineers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet Oklahoma Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Detroit Pistons +12

The New York Knicks are way overvalued due to their 8-3 start. They have created expectations for themselves from oddsmakers and the betting public that they simply cannot live up to because of it. Detroit is undervalued due to its 3-10 start as the betting public doesn't really want to touch the Pistons.

New York has started showing signs of coming back down to reality here in recent weeks. They have lost two straight to Dallas (111-114) and Houston (103-131) coming in. I do believe this will be a playoff team this year, but the Knicks are not as good as their perception after an 8-1 start. As a result, they are overvalued.

Detroit is really coming around of late. It has won three of its last five contests, including blowout wins over the 76ers (94-76) and Celtics (103-83). This team is going to be improved from a year ago as the season progresses. It's just that they started 0-8 so the perception on them is down, which provides us with excellent line value game to game, especially here tonight.

This play falls into a system that is 41-15 (73.2%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against of 10 or more points (NEW YORK) - tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days, first half of the season. Take the Pistons Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on San Francisco PK

San Francisco is 2-1 on the season with its only loss coming to Stanford 62-74 on a neutral court. This team has been a great bet at home throughout the years. Columbia is certainly overrated heading into this contest due to its 3-1 start. It's coming off a huge win at Villanova, and this is certainly a letdown spot after that victory.

The Dons are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win. San Francisco is 14-3-1 ATS in its last 18 games overall. The Dons are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games. San Francisco is 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet San Francisco Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Los Angeles Lakers -1

Off two straight losses, the Los Angeles Lakers are highly motivated for a victory here Saturday night against the Dallas Mavericks. I believe they get it against one of the most overrated teams in the league.

Dallas is 9-24 ATS after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. The Mavericks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Dallas is 18-41-2 ATS in their last 61 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The Mavs are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Roll with the Lakers Saturday.

15* NBA Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Warriors/Nuggets OVER 201

Oddsmakers have set the bar too low Friday night between these two potent offensive teams in the Denver Nuggets and Golden State Warriors. I have no doubt they'll combine to score over 201 points as both come in well-rested and ready to get up and down the floor.

Neither team has been putting up points to their full potential to this point, which is the reason this total is much lower than it should be. Denver has been one of the best offensive teams in the league since George Karl took over, but one of the worst defensive squads. That will be the case once again by season's end.

Denver is scoring 102.0 points/game at home this season. Golden State is allowing 101.1 points/game on the road this season. The Warriors are 4-0 OVER in their last 4 games overall with three of those contests coming on the road. All three of those road games saw 204 or more combined points.

Golden State and Denver have combined to score 207 or more points in six straight meetings. In fact, they have combined to score 207 or more points in 15 of their last 16 meetings. That makes for a 15-1 (94%) system backing the OVER pertaining to tonight's total set. Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Pitt/Michigan ESPN 2 Wednesday No-Brainer on Michigan -2.5

The Michigan Wolverines should be a much heavier favorite over the Pittsburgh Panthers in the NIT Tip Off Championship. Despite being the No. 4 team in the country, I believe the Wolverines aren't getting the respect they deserve in the early going from oddsmakers.

Michigan has won its first three games all by 30 points or more. The last time it did that it went on to win the National Championship in 1989. The Wolverines have returned three starters, including their two leading scorers in Trey Burke (14.8 PPG, 4.6 APG) and Tim Hardaway Jr. (14.6 PPG). Burke is averaging 18.3 points while Hardaway Jr. is averaging 17.3 through three games.

Pittsburgh had a down season last year, and I have seen nothing from them to indicate that they will be improved this year. The Panthers lost two double-digit scorers from last season and they are raw this year. Sure, they are 4-0 on the season, but all four of those wins came at home against weak competition. They even needed to rally from 18 points down to beat Oakland in overtime last time out despite coming into the game as a 21-point favorite.

The Wolverines are 32-14-1 ATS in their last 47 games overall. Pittsburgh is 0-7 ATS after 3 straight games outrebounding opponent by 6 or more over the last 2 seasons. Michigan is 22-9-1 ATS in its last 32 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Panthers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Roll with Michigan Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Denver Nuggets -3

The Denver Nuggets will crush the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight in an absolute mismatch. Denver is undervalued due to its 5-6 start against a tough schedule, and I still believe this will be one of the top teams in the West by season's end.

Minnesota is in a world of hurt right now due to injuries. It is without Kevin Love, Ricky Rubio, Chase Budinger and Brandon Roy. The Timberwolves are overvalued due to their 5-4 start against a much softer schedule. They have lost their last two games to Charlotte and Golden State, both at home, and they have no chance against the Nuggets tonight.

Denver is 19-2 in its last 21 meetings with Minnesota. It has won 90% of those meetings, which dates back to 2007. It's certainly safe to say that the Nuggets have the Timberwolves' number.

The Nuggets are 42-20 ATS in their last 62 road games. The Timberwolves are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The Nuggets are 7-1-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Minnesota. The road team is 19-6-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings. Bet Denver Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +10

The betting public does not want to back a team that is 0-9 on the season. The Washington Wizards are the last team in the league without a win, and as a result they are undervalued right now. I'll gladly take the points tonight against the Atlanta Hawks.

There's no question that these Wizards' players want to get their first taste of victory. As a result, they will fight, scratch and claw until they get it. This is a big letdown spot for the Hawks as they will have a hard time getting motivated to face a winless team, which will make it very tough to cover this double-digit spread.

Washington hasn't been nearly as bad as its record would indicate. Eight of its nine losses have come by 10 points or less, so it simply hasn't been able to execute down the stretch of games. Atlanta has only won one game all season by more than 9 points en route to its 5-4 start.

This play falls into a system that is 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road underdogs of 10 or more points (WASHINGTON) - after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread against opponent after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread.

Atlanta is 1-11 ATS in home games in November games over the last 3 seasons. The Hawks are 7-23 ATS in home games after playing a game as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons. Atlanta is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 home games. The Wizards are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games. Take the Wizards Wednesday.

15* Indiana/Georgetown CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Georgetown +9.5

The Georgetown Hoyas showed what they were capable of yesterday by topping No. 11 UCLA 78-70 as a 6.5-point underdog. Its balance was on display as four players scored at least 11 points in this one, led by 23 points from Markel Starks. The Hoyas shot 54.5% as a team to improve to 3-0 on the season.

Indiana is the No. 1 team in the country right now, and with that ranking comes expectations from oddsmakers that it simply cannot live up to. That was evident yesterday in a 66-53 win over Georgia as a 21-point favorite. This will be by far the Hoosiers' toughest test of the year, and I cannot see them winning by double-digits.

The Hoyas are 37-18-1 ATS in their last 56 non-conference games. Georgetown is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 neutral site games. Indiana is 5-15-1 ATS in its last 21 neutral site games. The Hoosiers are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games following a ATS loss. Roll with Georgetown Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans Hornets +7

The New Orleans Hornets are showing great value as a big home underdog to the New York Knicks tonight. I'll gladly take advantage and side with the value. I realize that this line is +6 in most places, and I would still recommend a bet at that number as I believe the Hornets have an excellent chance to win this game outright.

New York is way overvalued due to its 7-1 start. Sure, this team is improved, but it should not be laying this big of a number on the road against almost any team in the league. This will be the Knicks' 4th game in 6 days.

The Hornets are one of the most underrated teams in the league in the early going. They made some great improvements this offseason in bringing in Ryan Anderson (16.4 PPG, 8.0 RPG) and Anthony Davis (16.0 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 2.2 BPG).

While they are just 3-5 on the season, three of those losses came by 4 points or less. New Orleans comes in the more rested, more hungry team tonight. It has lost three straight and it comes in on two days' rest.

This play falls into a system that is 23-6 (79.3%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home underdogs (NEW ORLEANS) - after going over the total by more than 30 points in their previous game, in non-conference games.

The Hornets are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 2 days rest. New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The Hornets are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 home games. These three trends combine for a 24-2 (92%) system backing New Orleans. Bet the Hornets Tuesday.

15* New Mexico/UConn CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on New Mexico -2

The UConn Huskies are way overvalued early in the season due to their 4-0 start. Three of those wins have come by 6 points or less and this team is not as good as its record would indicate. The Huskies only brought back one starter this season.

I believe New Mexico is every bit as good as its 3-0 record with three wins against quality teams in Davidson, Illinois-Chicago and George Mason. The Lobos returned three starters from last season, including Tony Snell (19.7 PPG) and Kendall Williams (18.0 PPG), who are their two leading scorers.

The biggest reason I'm fading the Huskies tonight is the fact that they played in a double-overtime game yesterday against Quinnipiac, winning by a final of 89-83. There's no question that UConn will be the more tired team, especially because they're not very deep with such little experience returning.

The Lobos are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games overall. New Mexico is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 games following a S.U. win. The Huskies are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. Bet New Mexico Monday.

15* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Denver Nuggets +7

The Memphis Grizzlies are way overvalued right now due to their 8-game winning streak. Sure, this is one of the better teams in the Western Conference, but they are not 7 points better than the Nuggets tonight.

Denver comes in undervalued due to a 4-6 start which includes a three-game losing streak. It will be highly motivated to put an end to this skid tonight. It will also want to put an end to a three-game losing streak in this series with the Grizzlies with three straight losses by 3 points or less.

The Nuggets also come in the fresher team as this will only be their 3rd game in 7 days. The Grizzlies will be a bit fatigued playing their 4th game in 6 days. They won't be able to match the energy level of the Nuggets, who like to push the ball up the court and fast break more than any other team in the league.

The Nuggets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. Denver is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games following a S.U. loss. The Nuggets are 41-20 ATS in their last 61 road games. The Grizzlies are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Take the Nuggets Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Bobcats +5.5

The Charlotte Bobcats are showing solid value as a 5.5-point home underdog to the Milwaukee Bucks tonight. There's no question that this Bobcats team is improved from a year ago, but they aren't getting treated like it from oddsmakers.

Charlotte has opened 4-4 this season and it is way undervalued right now. It has won three of its last four with its only loss to the Grizzlies, who are currently on an 8-game winning streak. This is basically a completely new team and one that will be a lot more competitive all season.

The Bobcats made some great improvements to their roster this offseason with the additions of Ramon Sessions (15.8 PPG, 4.2 APG), Ben Gordon (13.8 PPG, 42.3% 3-pointers), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (11.2 PPG, 1.6 BPG, 7.0 RPG) and Brendan Haywood (7.4 PPG, 7.6 RPG).

Milwaukee is overvalued right now due to its 6-2 start. Only one of those six wins has come against a team with a winning record, and that was the mediocre Boston Celtics (6-5). There's no question that the Bucks are improved this season as well, but they should not be this heavily favored on the road against the Bobcats tonight.

Milwaukee is 45-72 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins since 1996. The Bucks are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. win. The Bobcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Milwaukee is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Roll with the Bobcats Monday.

15* NBA PLAY OF THE DAY on Portland Trail Blazers +1

The Portland Trail Blazers should not be an underdog at home tonight to the Chicago Bulls. The Bulls will be playing the second of a back-to-back, so they'll be tired heading into this one.

This play falls into a system that is 23-6 (79.3%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home underdogs (PORTLAND) - after going over the total by more than 30 points in their previous game, in non-conference games. Bet the Blazers Sunday.

15* CBB PLAY OF THE DAY on Richmond +10.5

The Richmond Spiders are showing solid value as a double-digit underdog today to the Minnesota Golden Gophers. Richmond is off to a 3-0 start with three wins by double-digits. This team is for real.

This play falls into a system that is 27-7 (79.4%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home favorites of 10 or more points (MINNESOTA) - very good defensive team - shooting pct defense of <=39% on the season, after a game - allowing a shooting pct. of 28% or less.

Minnesota is 6-16 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. The Spiders are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 Sunday games. Richmond is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 non-conference games. Bet Richmond Sunday.

15* Bulls/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Chicago +6.5

The Los Angeles Clippers have played very well against the top teams in the league this season. However, they have been prone to the letdown with home losses to the Warriors and Clippers as well.

I believe the Clippers are overvalued here tonight after their home win over the Miami Heat on Wednesday. In fact, they have won four straight games heading in. That means the betting public is going to be all over them, and oddsmakers know this. They are in a letdown spot here after that Heat win.

Chicago is a team that rarely gets blown out and is in every game. All three of its losses have come by 7 points or less this season. The Bulls are 2-0 on the road this year and will be looking forward to this contest at Los Angeles Saturday.

The Bulls are 25-10-1 ATS in their last 36 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The Clippers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 vs. NBA Central opponents. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 meetings in Los Angeles. The road team has won four straight and eight of the last 10 in this series. Bet the Bulls Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Wisconsin-Milwaukee +7.5

Wisconsin-Milwaukee has returned three starters from last season, including F James Haarsma (10.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG). The good news about that is three new starters in Jordan Aaron (20.0 PPG), Lyle Kelm (10.0 PPG) and Thierno Niang (10.0 PPG) are leading the team in scoring through two games.

The Panthers have opened 1-1 with their only loss coming at South Carolina by a final of 75-82. I'd say that's a pretty good loss as they hung with a BCS school. Davidson also has an 81-86 loss at New Mexico, and I simply believe that this team is way overvalued as a big road favorite Saturday.

The Wildcats are 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 road games. Davidson is 5-14 ATS as a road favorite or pick over the last 3 seasons. The Wildcats are 0-6 ATS n road games after scoring 75 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The Panthers are in home games after playing a road game over the last 3 seasons. Roll with Wisconsin-Milwaukee Saturday.

15* Suns/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix +9

The Phoenix Suns are showing great value as a 9-point underdog to the Los Angeles Lakers tonight. The hype surrounding the Lakers and head coach Mike D'Antoni has them way overvalued right now.

Remember, this is just a 3-5 Lakers team that is trying to find its way. It's going to take a few weeks for these players to catch on to D'Antoni's system. The Lakers' three wins have come at home against teams that are a combined 7-18.

Phoenix has won three of its last five contests coming in. Its only losses came at Utah and at home in overtime to the Chicago Bulls. This team is better than it gets credit for, and unlike the Lakers, the Suns are undervalued at this point of the season.

The Suns are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The Lakers are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Los Angeles is 8-17-1 ATS in its last 26 home games. The Lakers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Take the Suns Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -1.5

The Portland Trail Blazers should be a much heavier home favorite tonight against the Houston Rockets. Portland is hungry to put an end to three-game home losing streak, and I expect them to do so against a Houston team that it beat on the road 95-85 on November 3rd.

Houston is overvalued due to James Harden. The former OKC Thunder guard has been putting up big numbers in Houston, but he doesn't make this an elite team. However, bettors like to back star players like Harden, which is why the Rockets are overvalued. Their four wins have come against the Pistons twice, Hawks and Hornets.

Portland is undervalued this season because it doesn't have any star players. LaMarcus Aldridge and Nicolas Batum are two of the most underrated players in the entire league. Point guard Damian Lillard is well on his way to earning Rookie of the Year honors, too.

The Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Northwest opponents. Houston is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Rockets are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 vs. Western Conference foes. These three trends combine for a 21-1 (95%) system backing Portland. Roll with the Blazers Friday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Notre Dame -3

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish should be a much bigger favorite tonight against the St. Joseph's Hawks. Both teams return five starters, but there's no question that the No. 21 Fighting Irish are the more talented team, and that will show on the court tonight.

Remember, this is a Notre Dame team that went 13-5 in Big East play last season to finish 3rd in the conference. Jack Cooley (12.5 PPG, 8.9 RPG) is one of the Big East's premier bigs, coming off an uber-efficient campaign in which he made 62.5% of his field goals and swatted 1.6 shots per game.

But the backcourt figures to be just as dangerous led by Jerian Grant (12.3 PPG, 5.0 APG) and Eric Atkins (12.1 PPG, 4.1 APG). Both are strong passers and shooters, who should have no problem making this offense flow alongside 6-foot-8 swingman Scott Martin (9.5 PPG, 5.7 RPG). He is a matchup nightmare with a guard's skillset and a forward's body.

The Fighting Irish are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. win. Notre Dame is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games vs. Atlantic 10 opponents. The Hawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Take Notre Dame Friday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Wake Forest +10.5

Connecticut is way overvalued heading into this neutral court contest with Wake Forest tonight due to its 2-0 start that includes wins over Michigan State and Vermont. Now is a great time to fade this team considering they are getting some hype.

The Huskies are not going to be as strong this season as they have been in year's past, plain and simple. Former head coach Jim Calhoun retired, and he did not leave new head coach Kevin Ollie with much talent. The Huskies return just one starter, lose Jeremy Lamb and Andre Drummond to the NBA, and Alex Oriakhi has transferred.

Wake Forest went just 4-12 in ACC play last year, and it heads into the 2012-13 campaign undervalued because of it. The Demon Deacons should be much improved because they return their top two scorers from last season in C.J. Harris (16.7 PPG) and Travis McKie (16.1 PPG, 7.0 RPG). Six different players scored in double figures in a 79-67 win over Radford in their opener, so this team has some nice balance to go along with studs Harris and McKie.

UConn is 25-47 ATS in road games off a home win by 10 points or more since 1997. It is only winning in this spot by an average of 3.1 points/game. Look for this one to go right down to the wire with a possible upset by the Demon Deacons. Bet Wake Forest Friday.

15* Heat/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver -3

The Denver Nuggets should be a much heavier favorite tonight over the Miami Heat. This is an extremely tough spot for Miami and a great one for Denver, and that's the reason the Nuggets bring home the cash in this one.

Miami will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days. This is one of the hardest situations for any team in the league, and they only come across it a couple times a year. The Heat showed signs of wearing down last night in a 100-107 loss at Los Angeles.

Denver is one of the most up-tempo teams in the league, which will make life even harder on the Heat in this one. The Nuggets push the ball up the floor faster than any other team in the NBA. Miami is going to wear down in the second half as I expect the Nuggets to pull away in the 3rd and 4th quarters. The Nuggets come in on two days' rest, and this is just their 2nd game in 5 days.

The home team has won six straight meetings in this series. Denver is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. The Nuggets are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Denver is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games following a S.U. loss. Roll with the Nuggets Thursday.

15* Hawks/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -1

The Golden State Warriors are hungry for a victory after dropping back-to-back games to the Lakers and Nuggets. I like their chances tonight with a step down in competition as the Atlanta Hawks visit Oracle Arena.

The Warriors have had some time to steam over those losses as they haven't played a game since Saturday, November 10th. They have had three full days to prepare for Atlanta, and they will be well-rested and ready to go coming in. Those are two huge advantages for Golden State tonight.

Atlanta will be playing its 3rd game in 4 nights as it continues its grueling 4-game road trip to the West Coast. The Hawks won't be able to give as much effort on the court tonight as the Warriors because of it.

The Warriors are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss. Golden State is 18-8 ATS in its last 26 games following two or more consecutive losses. It simply wants this one more tonight folks. Bet the Warriors Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +7.5

The Detroit Pistons (0-8) are going to fight, scratch and claw to try and get their first win of the season. There's no question they are undervalued due to this winless start, and I'll pull the trigger on them tonight as a big road underdog to the Philadelphia 76ers.

Detroit has played six of its first eight games on the road, so it has faced a very difficult schedule. It proved it could play with one of the best teams in the league last time out. The Pistons lost 92-90 to Oklahoma City Monday after blowing a 13-point lead in the third quarter.

"The thing I liked is our guys, when you went in that locker room, very, very disappointed," coach Lawrence Frank told the team's official website. "Laid it all out there, felt like we could have won the game - should have won the game - and you hate where you kick a game. Just to see how much that loss hurt ... it should, and then we had a really good day of practice and you move forward."

The 76ers are just 1-2 at home this season. They are getting outscored 89.3 to 96.7 at home this year with losses to the Knicks and Bucks. Philadelphia will have a hard time getting motivated to play a winless team tonight, which will be the case for many of Detroit's opponents until they get that first "W".

This play falls into a system that is 57-26 (68.7%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHILADELPHIA) - after 1 or more consecutive losses against opponent after 8 or more consecutive losses. Roll with the Pistons Wednesday.

15* Wisconsin/Florida ESPN 2 ATS ANNIHILATOR on Florida -6

The Florida Gators are one of the most talented teams in the country this season. They are ranked inside the Top 10 for good reason, and that will show on the floor tonight as they crush the Wisconsin Badgers at home.

The Gators return three starters from a team that made it to the Elite Eight last year. They are leading scorer Kenny Boynton (15.9 PPG, 3.0 3-pointers), Erik Murphy (10.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG) and Patric Young (10.2 PPG, 6.4 RPG).

Florida led 47-9 at halftime in its opener and cruised to an 84-35 victory over Alabama State. Boynton finished with 22 points, five assists and six rebounds. Murphy hit three 3's and scored 15 points, while Young added 12 points and 12 rebounds with two blocks.

Wisconsin has lost starting point guard Josh Gasser to a season-ending knee injury. That's huge because it already had to replace leading scorer Jordan Taylor (14.8 PPG) from last season. Teams that struggle at the point guard position don't usually fare well. Take Florida Wednesday.

15* Kentucky/Duke ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on Duke -3

The Kentucky Wildcats are way over-hyped coming into the season. They won the National Championship last year, and now they have a TV show about them on ESPN heading into the 2012-13 campaign. They can't live up to the hype, and that will be reflected against the point spreads early in the season.

Kentucky loses all five starters from last season. Sure, John Calipari is an excellent recruiter, but you just don't replace the five guys they lost. They will have to replace 92 percent of last year's offense with another freshman class.

"I like our talent. I like our size. I like our length. We have some guys with pretty good speed," Calipari said. "We're just not a good basketball team right now. Too many young guys that we're trying to bring along."

Duke returns four starters from a team that averaged 77.3 points/game last season. The key to this season's team will be senior forward Mason Plumlee, who chose not to enter the NBA Draft after a season in which he averaged nearly a double-double (11.1 PPG, 9.2 RPG). He is joined in the frontcourt by senior Ryan Kelly, who can stretch defenses as a long-range shooter (41% threes).

The backcourt is led by senior Seth Curry, but with Austin Rivers gone, he has returned to his more natural position off the ball, where he thrives with a better than 40% three-point stroke in his Duke career.

Kentucky barely squeaked by Maryland 72-69 in its opener, and it is an underdog for a good reason here. The Wildcats are 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 non-conference games. Kentucky is 3-12-1 ATS in its last 16 vs. ACC foes. Take Duke Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday GAME OF THE NIGHT on Orlando Magic +7

The Orlando Magic should not be catching 7 points at home Tuesday. This is a team that came into the season undervalued due to the Dwight Howard trade, and that hasn't changed through the first few weeks of the 2012-13 campaign.

The New York Knicks are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers due to their 4-0 start. This will only be their second road game of the season, and they shouldn't be favored by 7 points away from home against almost any team in this league.

Orlando has gone a very profitable 4-2 ATS in its six games this year. Off four straight losses, the Magic will be the more motivated team heading into this one. Three of those four losses have come on the road, and there's no question that this skid has them undervalued right now.

This play falls into a system that is 38-11 (77.6%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ORLANDO) - average team from last season that won between 45-55% of their games.

The Magic are 19-6 ATS in home games vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game since 1996. They are winning in this spot by an average of 4.7 points/game. Orlando is 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 games playing on 1 days rest. Bet the Magic Tuesday.

15* WVU/Gonzaga ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on West Virginia +11

The West Virginia Mountaineers are a much stronger team than they are getting credit for heading into the 2012-13 campaign, which will be their first season in the Big 12. They should not be a double-digit underdog tonight to the overrated Gonzaga Bulldogs.

The Mountaineers return three starters from a team that went 9-9 in the Big East last season and made the NCAA Tournament. Sophomore Gary Browne (6.5 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 3.0 APG) should be prepared to take a big step up in the backcourt. PF Deniz Kilici (10.7 PPG, 5.3 RPG) is their best returning player.

After sitting out a year, Dayton transfer Juwan Staten will be a big factor at guard. Kilici will be joined in the frontcourt by La Salle transfer Aaric Murray, who at 6-foot-10 is a shot-blocking force (143 blocks over two college season) who can also step out and hit jumpers, averaging 13.7 PPG and making 36% of his threes at La Salle.

West Virginia wants payback from a 77-54 loss to Gonzaga in the NCAA Tournament. There's no question that the Mountaineers have been thinking about this game all offseason for a chance at revenge. They'll definitely want this one more tonight. Take West Virginia Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +6.5

The Detroit Pistons are very motivated to get their first win of the season. Because this team has opened 0-7, there's no question they are undervalued right now. The betting public does not want to back them, and that's why they are showing such great value as a 6.5-point underdog here Monday.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are going to be disinterested heading into this one. They are going to have a hard time getting up to play a winless Pistons team. That's especially the case considering the Thunder just beat them at home 105-94 this past Friday.

The Thunder will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. So not only will they be disinterested, but they won't have the energy level it's going to take to win this game by 7-plus points, let alone win it at all.

A big reason why the Pistons have opened 0-7 is due to a brutal schedule that has featured six straight road games. This will be just their second home game of the season, and there's no question these players are looking forward to getting back in front of their home fans. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Roll with the Pistons Monday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -2

The Miami Heat are showing great value as only a 2-point favorite at Memphis. The Grizzlies are way overvalued due to their 4-1 start against one of the easiest schedules you will ever see. They meet their match tonight in the defending NBA champs.

Lebron James and Dwayne Wade both are banged up a bit coming into this one, which is probably the biggest reason why the Heat are a small favorite here. But the oddsmakers are putting too much stock into it. "It's a little sore right now," James said after his last game. "I knew I would get through it. It would take a lot for me not to go back out there with my teammates."

The Heat are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 1 days rest. Miami is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Grizzlies are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 Sunday games. Take the Heat Sunday.