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10* Under Clippers/Nuggets (9:05 ET): I’ll try this again, despite the fact that Nuggets’ red-hot shooting didn’t subside in the last game, it actually got even hotter. They shot 58.4% from the field Monday against the Lakers, including a somewhat insane 13 of 23 on three-point attempts, yet still lost the game 124-121! There is simply no way Denver will shoot that well again here, a game which figures to have a little more “playoff-like intensity.”
It is very likely that the Clippers will end up as the 2-seed and the Nuggets the 3-seed in the Western Conference. However, if Denver wins here, things would get interesting as it would come down to the final game. (They need to win out and have the Clippers lose out to take the 2-seed). The Clippers, who have gone Over in four straight themselves, lost 129-120 to Brooklyn on Sunday despite 39 points from Kawhi Leonard, who sat out the team’s surprising win against Portland the day prior. Sunday was Paul George’s turn to sit out. Both are expected back here. Patrick Beverley’s status is unknown, but I’m expecting better defense from the Clips tonight.
Denver is the only team in the bubble to have gone Over in every game. I look for the streak to end tonight as they should start to see a sharp decline in shooting. I’m not as high on the Nuggets as they only have the West’s 7th best efficiency rating. It was a similar story last year when they somehow finished second in the standings. This year’s team is weaker based on efficiency and scoring differential. 10* Under Clippers/Nuggets
7* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): Morale may be pretty low right now in the City of Brotherly Love (at least there’s the Flyers!) after another head-scratching loss last night. But I just can’t see the Phillies losing two in a row to the Orioles at home. The Phils had a three-run lead Tuesday and were still ahead going into the ninth. It ended up being a 10-9 defeat in extra innings as the team fell to 5-7 despite playing every game but two at home. But they’ve only been outscored by 4 runs all year and today should be a positive result.
Baltimore won only 54 games last year and 47 the year before that. Those win totals would be incredible for 2020, but remember those were 162-game seasons. They were outscored by 522 runs the previous two seasons and were widely expected to be bad again this year. But the O’s are surprising 8-7 following three straight wins, two of which have seen them score 10+ runs. But asking them to win more than three in a row is a tall order. They are just 2-8 the L3 seasons when on a win streak of three or more games. This includes a 4-0 loss to Miami last week.
Tonight’s starting pitching matchup seems to be heavily titled in the favor of the Phillies. Zach Eflin allowed just two unearned runs in his first start, which was a 5-4 win over the Yankees as a +125 ML dog. Wade LeBlanc started for Baltimore three times so far and has a 6.91 ERA. He was shelled both times on the road, giving up a total of 10 runs in 9 IP. Remember I had the Phils two days ago and they jumped out to a 13-1 lead vs. Atlanta, holding on for the victory. 7* Philadelphia
8* Tampa Bay (7:35 ET): The Red Sox just aren’t very good in 2020 and their fortune doesn’t figure to change much Wednesday in this matchup with Blake Snell and the Rays. Tampa came into Fenway Park and won 8-2 on Tuesday, their 4th win in a row and 5th in the last 6 games. One big six-run inning was all that they needed. They’ve now scored 8 runs in B2B games to open the series and had a season-high 16 hits in Monday’s opener. These two AL East rivals are heading in opposite directions right now.
Boston has lost 7 of its last 10 games, landing them in last place in the division. They are 1-3 vs. Tampa Bay this year having allowed 5+ runs in every game. Since the start of last season, they are just 8-15 vs. the Rays. Zach Godley will get the starting nod Wednesday for the Red Sox and he has a 6.14 ERA and 1.774 WHIP after two starts. The team has lost them both. Going back to last season, Godley has an 0-6 TSR L6 starts and hasn’t gone longer than four innings in any of them. Boston’s bullpen isn’t very good either.
Snell, the 2018 AL Cy Young Winner for the Rays, has yet to record a decision in any of his three 2020 outings. None of them have seen him pitch more than three innings. Two of the three, he didn’t allow any runs. He has said he’d like to work as many as five innings tonight. He should pitch well, no matter how deep into the game he goes. Boston is hitting just .202 in games vs. southpaw starters. The Red Sox have only been a ML home dog of +125 to +175 twice in the last three seasons. They lost both times. 8* Tampa Bay
10* Colorado (5:30 ET): I just don’t see Arizona as being capable of making this into a competitive series. Thus, I’ll be backing the Avalanche here in Game 1. I’ve previously espoused the virtues of the Avs many times. While they failed to come through for me Saturday against Vegas, a loss which cost them the #1 seed in the Western Conference, they did get the job done against Dallas in 4-0 fashion. They went 2-0-1 in the round robin format, outshooting and out-possessing each opponent. They are, at least on paper, the West’s best team.
The Coyotes entered the playoffs as an 11-seed. I did think they got a favorable draw in the qualification series with Nashville, whom they ousted in just four games. It was the franchise’s first series win since 2012. That it came right after their GM abandoned them had to feel good. But the ‘Yotes are in over their head now in the Round of 16. Of all 12 playoff teams in the Western side of the draw, they scored the second fewest goals (ahead of only Dallas).
The key to the series for Arizona is going to be goalie Darcy Keumper, who was lights out against the Predators. He had a .933 save percentage in the four games, pretty remarkable considering he faced 163 shots. That was the most shots faced by any goalie in the previous round. Unfortunately for Keumper, Colorado averaged 37.7 shots/game in the round-robin and they led the Western Conf in goals during the regular season. Arizona allowed 11 goals in four games last round while the Avs allowed just five in three games. 10* Colorado
The time has come for Bryan Power to EXPAND! Having achieved a tremendous amount of success, Power is expanding his reach in 2015 as he proudly announces the formation of Power Sports Picks (that's "PSP" for short). Power Sports Picks promises to deliver the same quality analysis (and same amount of winning) as before, only now with a FULL TEAM assembled, the SKY IS THE LIMIT!