7* LA Angels (9:38 ET): This looks like a mismatch to me, with favorable odds on the home team. The Angels, despite getting beat 7-2 last night by the Rangers, are off to a 27-18 start this year and battling for first place in the AL West with the Astros. The Halos certainly appear to be one of the most improved teams in all of baseball this season, and a lot of that improvement has to do with an offense that is 1st in the American League in runs scored. With a solid edge at the plate and in the starting pitching matchup for tonight (more on that momentarily), the home team is a solid play for Thursday. 

Toronto was expected to compete for the AL East pennant this year, but they are currently 7.5 games back of the Yankees and have a -7 YTD run differential. Toronto hitters are chasing way too many pitches out of the zone and the result is a lineup averaging just 3.7 runs per game. Over their L7 games, the Jays are batting a collective .217. They are hitting .221 on the road for the season. I don’t like their chances here against Shohei Ohtani, who comes in sporting a 2.82 ERA and 1.017 WHIP after seven starts. Oftentimes, Ohtani can be overvalued by the oddsmakers, but because his TSR is 3-4 and he’s facing the Blue Jays, we’re getting a really good price, in my opinion. 

Hyun-Jin Ryu will start tonight for Toronto. He’s been better since coming off the injured list, giving up just one run in 10 ⅔ innings. But Ryu is facing a very strong lineup here and he’s still allowed a lot of hard hit balls in those last two starts. Back to the Blue Jays’ offense, it is just 25th in runs and in the six games prior to Tuesday’s 8-1 win over the Cardinals, they scored three or less every time. An off-day isn’t enough to counteract the fact the Jays are simply the inferior ballclub in this matchup. Ohtani seems to hit better in the games where he pitches and Mike Trout is going to bounce back from last night’s unusual 0 for 4 effort at the plate. 7* LA Angels

10* Over Brewers/Cardinals (7:45 ET): This play may seem a bit “odd” at first, considering I just won with the Under (1st 5 innings) in yesterday’s game involving the Brewers. All three games vs. the Padres stayed Under as no more than five runs were scored in any of the contests (only three yday). Now the Brew Crew are matched up with the division rival Cardinals, who are tied with them for the fourth fewest runs allowed in the National League this season. Two solid starting pitchers have resulted in a low total being set for the series opener on Thursday. But I believe the value here is on the Over. 

It’s all about matchups. Eric Lauer is off to a solid start to the year for Milwaukee, but his numbers go up on the road and he’ll be facing a Cardinals lineup that is red hot at the moment. St. Louis comes into tonight having scored an average of 6.6 runs over its last seven games while batting a collective .296. They’d collected 10 or more hits in six straight games before losing to Toronto 8-1 on Tuesday. The Over is 3-0-1 the L4 times St. Louis has faced a left-handed starter. Lauer, a southpaw, has seen the Over hit in four of his seven starts so far and only one had less than seven total runs scored. He allowed 3 HRs the last time he made a start away from home. Lauer’s ERA in four career appearances vs. St. Louis is 7.90. 

 Adam Wainwright goes here for the home team. The veteran also has nice numbers this year, but here he’s facing a Milwaukee lineup that has been killing righties. The Brewers are scoring 5.4 runs per game when facing a right-handed starter. You’ve got to think that after the San Diego series, where they didn’t do much at the plate but still won two of three, the Brew Crew’s bats are ready to “break out.” Eight or more total runs have been scored in each of Wainwright’s last four starts and when he faced Milwaukee on April 14th, he gave up four runs in just 4 ⅓ innings. 10* Over Brewers/Cardinals

9* Philadelphia (7:20 ET): So we’ve come full circle in this series, which began with me taking the Phillies on Monday. They won 7-3, but then it was time to “flip my support” to Atlanta each of the L2 days and they came through for me as well, winning 6-5 and 8-4. If you recall, in Monday’s analysis, I stated that - despite the teams having very similar records - the Phillies were probably better, based on the respective run differentials. The matchups didn’t work in their favor the L2 days, but here I think we’ll see Philly prevail and earn a split of this four-game series. I’m of course hoping to make it a 4-0 sweep! 

Aaron Nola simply does not deserve a 1-8 team start record. The Phillies’ starter for Thursday, Nola has a 0.994 WHIP this season and has allowed 3 ER or less in six of his nine outings. Yet he has not won since his first start of 2022, ironically when he allowed four runs. Four of the eight starts since have seen the Phillies lose by one run. I think it’s time for Nola’s luck to turn and it helps that he’s facing a team he’s gone 12-8 against with a 3.32 ERA and 142 strikeouts. The Braves are only scoring 3.4 runs per game when facing a right-handed starter and batting .220 in those contests. 

Atlanta will counter Nola with Kyle Wright, who has been solid thus far with the exception of a start vs. Boston on May 10th. But Wright has a 5.56 ERA when facing the Phillies and has never beaten them. The Phillies are putting up 5.4 runs per game on the road, which is more than they allow. That goes back to run differential as the team is +10, so you’d think they’d have a winning record. But they are just 20-24 in all games. Atlanta is 21-23, but they’ve been outscored by 10 runs this year. After a win, the Braves are just 6-15 and they’ve not won three straight at any point in 2022 (0-5 when off B2B wins). 9* Philadelphia

9* Under Cubs/Reds (12:35 ET): Last time we checked in on this series was Tuesday when I had the Cubs and they rolled to an easy 11-4 victory. The Northsiders also won Monday’s opener, but on Wednesday it was the Reds’ turn to get into the win column, 4-3, as the Cubs failed to score between the first and ninth innings. I expect this afternoon’s series finale to also be a low-scoring affair as the two starting pitchers, Justin Steele for the Cubs and Hunter Greene for the Reds, have a lot to offer.

Greene has allowed 2 ER or less in each of his last three starts, one of which saw him pulled despite having a no-hitter into the seventh inning. He was just as sharp last Saturday against Toronto where he allowed just one run on four hits over six innings. There’s obviously not a ton to celebrate in the Queen City this season, but Greene is someone to keep an eye on, despite a misleading 1-7 team start record. His average velocity is 99 MPH and he has a strikeout rate of 27.9%. He’s better than his ERA suggests.

The Cubs counter with Steele, who has a 1.80 ERA and 0.867 WHIP over his L3 starts, even better than Greene. He also has a strikeout rate above 26 percent. The Reds’ lineup is quite lousy as they are hitting a collective .217. Also, they are 2-10 in games vs. left-handed starters. Steele is a southpaw. The Cubs’ bullpen has been solid so far this season, ranking third in xFIP during the month of May. This being a day game, don’t go expecting many runs. 9* Under Cubs/Reds