8* Over Pistons/Hawks (7:35 ET): Atlanta’s first two opponents combined to shoot just 37.4% overall and 28.2% from three. You’ve got to figure that won’t hold up. Also, they only scored 95 points themselves in a surprising loss to Cleveland on Saturday night. A return home should lead to noticeable uptick in scoring. In the first game, the Hawks scored 113 points and easily defeated the Dallas Mavericks. They are big favorites here over the Pistons and I expect this game to go well Over the total. 

Detroit has played two low-scoring games thus far, both against Chicago. Neither time were the Pistons able to break 90 points. That’s just sad. The first game vs. the Bulls saw them shoot 40% and score 88 points. A visit to the Windy City saw declines down to 38.6% shooting and 82 points. Through two games, the Pistons are a horrible 19.6% from three-point range. These numbers can only improve and I think they will tonight - substantially - as the Hawks were already set to regress defensively from the first two games.

With these teams combining to go 4-0 Under thus far, it’s no shock that the total is low. But it’s too low. Atlanta averaged 113.7 PPG at home last season. They were right at that number in the season opener vs. Dallas. If they were to again finish near that average (very reasonable assumption) then all we’d need is 100 points from the Pistons. Again, that sounds reasonable. Trae Young did not shoot well against Cleveland nor the last time he faced Detroit. That’s about to change. The Over is 10-1 the L11 meetings between these teams in Atlanta. 8* Over Pistons/Hawks

10* New Orleans (8:05 ET): Playing without Zion Williamson (out indefinitely with a foot injury), the Pelicans are off to an 0-3 SU start. But despite a horrid shooting night on Saturday, they still managed to cover the spread here in Minnesota. They shot 34.8% from the field and were 9 of 40 from three-point range in the 96-89 loss to the T’wolves. Not to mention they turned the ball over a franchise record 30 times! But New Orleans was a 7.5-point dog in that one, so they left with the cash. I anticipate the same thing will happen tonight. Take the points.

While it was just a half-point cover on Saturday, you’ve got to figure the Pelicans are going to shoot the ball better this evening. Devonte Graham and Nickeil Alexander-Walker were the primary offenders, combining to shoot a horrendous 3 of 23 from three-point range. You’ve got to figure that duo will be much better tonight AND the number of turnovers will be cut down significantly. In the Pelicans’ previous game, Graham and Alexander-Walker were 9 of 17 from behind the arc. 

Because they are still winless, expect New Orleans to come out “hungry” on Monday. They did not get off to a good start to Saturday’s game, which was the second night of a back to back for them. Minnesota is 2-0 SU with the other win coming against a rebuilding Houston team. It’s fairly shocking to see the T’wolves favored in the first three games of the season. I don’t think they’re a very good basketball team and the defensive numbers we’ve seen so far will not be sustained. 10* New Orleans