9* Over Blue Jays/Red Sox (7:05 ET): Toronto is a ballclub that really has me puzzled. They have the seventh best run differential in all of baseball (+85), but are only two games above .500 and in fourth place in the AL East. In terms of win expectancy (which is based on run differential), no team has underachieved more this season. Their “expected” win total is 57. But in actuality, they have just 49 wins and are 4.5 games back of the Wild Card. They are 10.5 games back of first place Boston, who took last night’s series opener by a score of 5-4. For a variety of reasons, I look for a higher-scoring game tonight. Take the Over. 

Back on June 13th, the Blue Jays clobbered the Red Sox 18-4 in Fenway Park. Since then, the Jays are 0-4 head to head with the AL East leaders. Robbie Ray was the one who started that 18-4 win and would probably be happy with getting just half that run support here. Run support is something he will need as Boston is the third highest scoring team in all of MLB, averaging 5.1 runs per game. Lately, the Red Sox have been even more prolific at the plate, averaging 6.3 rpg during a 6-1 stretch. While Ray did come out on the winning end against Boston last month, he did not fare nearly as well when he faced them last week. He served up three home runs in just five innings of work. 

While Ray deals with the potent Red Sox lineup, I do think he’s going to get some decent support. That’s because Garrett Richards, despite an 11-8 TSR, has not been an effective starter for Boston this year. He has a 6.55 ERA and 2.009 WHIP at Fenway this season in seven starts. The Over is 7-0-1 his L8 starts, a stark contrast to the streak the team is on (5-0 Under L5 games) coming into tonight. I think Richards' trend is the one that continues as he too served up three home runs on July 21st (same game Ray did). 9* Over Blue Jays/Red Sox