10* Miami FL (6:00 ET): The Hurricanes are off a terrible 83-57 loss at Syracuse from earlier in the week. Even though that was their 7th loss in 10 games, “The U” is certainly due for better results as it has fallen by five points or less in five of those seven defeats. Look for them to get back on track Sunday vs. the Fighting Irish, who are off a rare win, just their second in the last eight games. The Irish have just one road win all year and it was by a single point over struggling Kentucky. Lay the points here. 

Notre Dame has played only four games in January and three of them were on the road. They lost at Virginia, Virginia Tech and North Carolina. Then came an 80-70 win over Boston College last Saturday where they were 4.5-point favorites to win. It was a strong first half that propelled them to victory there, but the issue has been that the Irish are just not good defensively. They allow 75.7 PPG on the road. Being an underdog hasn’t been good at all for them as they are 5-33 SU L38 (1-8 this year) and 3-6 ATS this year.

Miami is solid defensively as they allow 64.2 PPG here in Coral Gables and a 39.5 FG%. I’d say what happened Tuesday in Syracuse was an atypical performance, not indicative of what the Canes are all about. As I alluded to earlier, this team has been rather unlucky in close games this season. They have three losses by two points or less. I say they bounce back in a big way here as ND is 0-4 ATS its L4 times playing with 7 or more days rest and dead last in the country at forcing turnovers. 10* Miami FL

8* Rhode Island (2:30 ET): I have faded Fordham before, successfully I might add. It was in home games vs. St. Bonaventure and UMass, back to back, that I stepped in and won. Sunday is another good time to fade. While Rams did cover the spread their last time out, staying within a 18.5-point spot against Davidson (lost 73-58), they still have yet to score 60 points in a game all season and that’s a problem when facing a Rhode Island squad that’s more than capable of hanging a big number here.

URI has had its own issues with the pointspread recently, losing games they were favored to win against UMass and Duquesne. It should be pointed out though that those outright losses came on the road. In fact, they’ve played just one home game since January 3rd. It was a 20-point win over George Mason last Saturday. The Rams come into this game sporting a 4-1 SU home record and I really like the fact they are holding the opposition to just 40.5% shooting for the season. 

Fordham has just one win this season and it came by a single point (55-54) in a shocking upset of Dayton (they were 12-point underdogs). Averaging only 51.0 points per game is really horrendous when you think about it and Rhode Island will not be in a giving mood Sunday having lost two of their last three games outright. URI is 3-0 ATS off a conference loss so far and this just might be the easiest game they’ve got left on the schedule. Note their last two losses were both by just two points, one in overtime and the other they blew a DD lead. 8* Rhode Island

9* Under Bucs/Packers (3:05 ET): Tampa Bay was able to eradicate some regular season “demons” last week, upsetting New Orleans 30-20 in the Divisional Round. I had the Under, which won by a far narrower margin (total closed at 53), and am now 2-0 in Bucs’ games this postseason. In the Wild Card Round, I faded them, laying a big number at Washington. Now they go from facing a team they lost to twice in the regular season to one that they defeated (albeit at home). Back on October 18th, the Bucs were my 10* Game of the Month as they crushed the Packers 38-10 as a 2.5-point home dog. 

You wouldn’t have known Green Bay was facing the best defense in the league last week as they rolled up 32 points in a two-touchdown victory over the Rams. Aaron Rodgers directed the Packers offense to 484 total yards, although the game was close (25-18) until he hit Allen Lazard with a 58-yard TD pass with just under seven minutes left. The Packers have now won seven in a row, scoring 30 or more points in all but one of those victories. Unlike the game in Tampa back in Week 6, they absolutely deserve to be favored here.

I was tempted to go with the Bucs this week, but considering they were underdogs at home for the first meeting, it could be argued that the value is on the other side of this NFC Championship Game matchup. Plus, as happy as I was to cash my 10* Game of the Month in October, that game was dramatically impacted by turnovers as the Bucs had a rare “pick-six” off Rodgers and a second INT was returned to the GB 2-yard line, setting up another easy TD. You could say the same about turnovers impacting last week’s win over the Saints where they forced FOUR, three of which were almost immediately converted into touchdowns as they started in “plus territory”. (They kneeled after the 4th, a drive which also started in Saints territory). But at the same time, it can’t be discounted that this Bucs’ defense (which is #1 in the league vs. the run) held GB to a season-low 201 total yards in that first meeting. It’s expected to be cold with a 50% chance of snow Sunday afternoon in Lambeau. 9* Under Bucs/Packers

10* Kansas City (6:40 ET): The Chiefs are not only in, but hosting the AFC Championship Game for a third consecutive season. However, it certainly FEELS a lot different than last year when they rode a 7-game ATS win streak into the season’s penultimate game and defeated Tennessee 35-24 here at Arrowhead Stadium. That team would of course go on to win the Super Bowl and end the season on a 9-0 ATS win streak. This year, the Chiefs come into the AFC Title Game on a 1-8 ATS run and that one cover comes with an asterisk as some (myself included) were able to grab the Saints +3.5 in that game, which ended up being a 32-29 KC victory. Last week, they had to hold on to beat the Browns 22-17 (closed -7.5 most places) as Patrick Mahomes left the game with a concussion. I’m operating on the assumption that Mahomes is going to play Sunday. It’s not as if Kansas City hasn’t had to overcome some attrition before. In last year’s playoff run, they trailed by double digits in all three games!

Buffalo is in its first AFC Championship Game since 1994 when they were in the final year of their infamous four consecutive Super Bowl appearances (0-4), led by Jim Kelly, Thurman Thomas and Bruce Smith. They are viewed as the “up and comers” in this matchup, but the reality is the Bills are a bit lucky to be here as they’ve been outgained in both playoff games, 472-397 by the Colts and 340-220 by the Ravens. Both games swung on goal-to-go decisions by the opposing team. Indianapolis failed to score a TD on 4th down while Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson threw a “pick-six” in the end zone when the game was still 10-3. 

Remember that the Chiefs got a first round bye, so that and the home field are two key advantages they have here. Back in Week 6, they won in Buffalo 26-17 as 5.5-point favorites, so we’re getting a ton of value with this line. I took the Chiefs in the first half of that game and won. Here I’ll play the full game as Mahomes has won 11 straight starts and is 26-14 ATS as a single-digit favorite. 10* Kansas City