7* Atlanta (7:20 ET): Both the Braves and Phillies are off to great starts this week. Each swept its previous opponent and now are set to renew pleasantries. This is already the third series between the NL East rivals this season. The Phillies swept the first (in Philly) before the Braves nearly returned the favor, taking two of three here at home (lost the last game). It will be full capacity at Truist Park this weekend as Atlanta is off a six-game road trip where they were swept by Toronto and then swept the Nationals. The Phillies are coming off a seven-game home stand, which ended with four straight wins over the Brewers. 

I like the Braves here as Philly has not been good on the road. The Phils are just 4-9 away from the City of Brotherly Love and getting outscored by two full runs per game! They turn to Zach Eflin for Friday’s opener and he has a 6.39 ERA on the road so far. Alarming is the number of hits Eflin has allowed as he’s given up 19 in just the last two starts alone. He’s allowed at least seven hits in five consecutive starts. This will be the third time Eflin has faced Atlanta this season and true to his team’s form, the home game was a win while the road game was a loss. Though the Phils are 17-15, they have a -12 run differential. 

The Braves gave up just six runs against the Nationals and hope Charlie Morton can continue the string of strong efforts on the mound. Morton, like Eflin, has struggled a bit of late. This will be his third time starting against the Phillies and of course, the home game resulted in a win while the road game was a loss. At home, Morton held them to one run in six innings. Atlanta is the stronger offensive team and that should propel them to victory tonight. 7* Atlanta

8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): The Indians impressed me yesterday when they finished off a four-game sweep at Kansas City. They now lead the AL Central with a 17-13 record and have won five straight overall. As per usual, pitching is carrying this team as they’ve posted two shutouts during the five-game win streak, including yday’s 4-0 win. A Cincinnati team that has scored only one run in its last two games (and it came in extra innings) isn’t likely to turn things around at the plate and for the second time today I’ll look to fade the visiting National League team in an Interleague matchup. 

The Reds got off to a fast start, but now sit a game below .500 (14-15) on the season. They have not been particularly good on the road where they are 4-8 with just 2.9 runs per game scored. Troubling is the fact they are giving up 5.2 runs per game overall as the bullpen isn’t very good. While they did beat the White Sox Wednesday in extra innings, 1-0, the Reds gave up a total of 21 runs the previous two games and have been shut out three times in the L10 games. Two of those shutout losses were by eight runs or more. 

Zach Plesac doesn’t have the greatest ERA (4.78) for Cleveland, but his WHIP (1.187) tells a bit of a different story. He’s faced the White Sox three times already and the third time was the charm as he shut them out for 5 ⅔ innings Sunday in a 5-0 win. Plesac won’t have to face Joey Votto, who is injured. Wade Miley goes for the Reds and his worst start of 2021 came against Cleveland when he allowed two home runs in a 6-3 loss. Now he’s got to pitch in an American League park. The Reds have scored two runs or fewer in four of the last six games and six of the last ten. 8* Cleveland

7* NY Yankees (7:05 ET): The Yankees failed to sweep the Astros yesterday, instead losing 7-4, but I don’t think there’s any denying the fact that the team wearing pinstripes has turned things around of late. The Bronx Bombers are 10-4 their L14 games and were in position to sweep the last series as they led the Astros 3-2 before uncharacteristically giving up five runs across the final two innings. No team in the American League is giving up fewer runs per game than are the Yanks (3.5) and I like them to bounce back with a win today in the opener of a three-game set with Washington. 

This being an interleague series, the Nationals get to use the DH. But they might need more than that after going 1 for 21 with runners in scoring position in the last series, which saw them get swept at home by the Braves. They were 1 for 12 w/ RISP yday alone. It’s not been a great start to the season for the Nats, who are 12-15 and in last place in the NL East. They have the 4th worst run differential (-22) in all of baseball and second worst in the National League. It certainly doesn’t help that Friday starter Patrick Corbin has an 8.10 ERA and 1.757 WHIP in five starts this year. He’s been particularly bad on the road.

For the Yankees, Friday starter Jameson Taillon has been solid at home where he’s got a 2.54 ERA and 0.954 WHIP. Visiting teams are scoring just 3.2 runs per game here at Yankee Stadium while batting .193. So, again, the addition of a DH to their lineup is not necessarily a “panacea” for Washington here. Corbin has been better after getting rocked each of his first two starts, but he still has just as many walks as strikeouts in his L2 outings and he’s allowed seven home runs already. The Yankees are 90-43 at home the L3 seasons. 7* NY Yankees

9* Orlando (8:05 ET): This is definitely more of a fade on Charlotte than any kind of endorsement of Orlando. The Hornets got blown out last night, here at home by Chicago, 120-99. A team I have been skeptical of for most of this season probably shouldn’t be laying this many points to anybody, let alone on the second night of a back to back. I suppose that theory will be put to the test tonight as the Magic are off a 36-point home loss to Boston the other night. Look for them to play a lot better here and take the points. 

Prior to getting blown out by Boston, the Magic had won two in a row. One of those was in Detroit and the other at home against Memphis. It’s been a long season for the Magic, who have the worst point differential in the Eastern Conference. But a division game where they are getting a lot of points, and off a blowout loss, is a good “buy low” spot. They’ve already split two games with Charlotte this season with the loss coming by only three points on the road. 

The Hornets continue to deal with injuries, even though LaMelo Ball and Malik Monk are back. Devonte Graham is questionable for tonight after also sitting last night and forward Miles Bridges is also out. Ball shot 1 for 10 against the Bulls, but the team was actually 16 of 35 from three and still lost by 21 at home (and scored less than 100 points). Charlotte is a below average team by the numbers. Reports out of Orlando is that the team had a good practice following the humiliating loss on Wednesday. I don’t see them getting blown out again. 9* Orlando

8* Real Sociedad (3:00 ET): So we’ve got a side trying to finish in the top five taking on a side trying to escape relegation here. The former is Real Sociedad, who suffered a bit of a head-scratching 1-0 defeat to Huesca last week on an own-goal. They are still fifth in the table, with no chance to finish fourth (17 point difference), but both Villarreal and Real Betis are hot on the 2020 Copa Del Rey Champions’ heels (just one and two points back, respectively). Sociedad doesn’t dare blow a second opportunity to pick up three points at the expense of a bottom of the table side and I’ll go with them here at home. 

The drama over who finishes fifth (and qualifies for the Europa League) in La Liga actually pales in comparison to what’s going on at the bottom of the table. The fight to avoid relegation sees just five points separating the bottom five sides. In the mix is Elche, in 19th place, but only a win away from safety. While Elche has played decent football the last two weeks, beating Levante 1-0 and losing by the same score to 1st place Atletico Madrid, Understat still has them with the fewest number of “expected points” in all of La Liga. Their -21 goal differential is second worst in the league. I can see them getting relegated. 

A big reason for this play is that no other La Liga side has been worse on their travels than Elche, who has picked up only 10 points from 17 away matches this season. In terms of expected goals scored and allowed, they are the worst in the league in both categories. Real Sociedad has been a solid home team for most of the campaign and this is among the easiest fixtures. They won the reverse 3-0 back in September. Like I said at the outset, Sociedad can’t have a second straight miss on the full three (points). 8* Real Sociedad