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Stephen Nover
I have had only two losing season in pro football in my handicapping career. I have the best sources in the business thanks to more than 25 years as a sportswriter, handicapper and analyst.
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Game Details
Jun 08 '26, 8:30 PM in 1d
NBA |
Spurs vs Knicks
Play on:
Spurs +115 at Bovada
Game Analysis
Don't give up on the Spurs yet. They very well could be up 2-0 in this NBA Finals rather than down 0-2.
The best player on the court is not Karl-Anthony Towns nor Jalen Brunson. It is Victor Wembanyama and he is more than capable of playing much better than he has shown so far in this championship series.
San Antonio also has a secret weapon. More on that later.
Much is being made of the Knicks' 13 straight playoff victories. That is the second-longest streak by any team in NBA playoff history. Note that 11 of those victories came against the Cavaliers, 76ers and Hawks. The Spurs have their own impressive streak - 13-2 SU and ATS in their next game following a loss since January.
The Spurs had a 14-point second-half lead in Game 1 against New York. Not nearly as well rested as the Knicks, the Spurs missed many shots they normally hit and ended up blowing the game.
San Antonio led New York with less than a minute left in Game 2. The Spurs ended up losing by one point when Wembanyama made an unforced error that led to a turnover and then compounded his poor decision with a foul. Then Wembanyama, who shot 51.2 percent from the floor during the regular season, missed a makeable jumper in the final seconds.
This is what Wembanyama said after the game: "I threw that one away. I messed up. We didn’t play great as a team. We needed to win that game. This game was ours. But at this point, it’s done. “Am I going to regret it? Yes, of course. Am I going to use that to fuel me and to fuel me and fuel us next game? Absolutely.”
I believe him. I regard Wembanyama as the most complete basketball player in the world, none better.
Now for San Antonio's secret weapon.
Well, actually, it's not such a secret that President Donald Trump is going to attend this Game 3.
The Knicks' have all the momentum, enthusiasm and joy going their way now. Trump, with all his baggage and controversial presence, is going to prove a huge distraction if not steal the spotlight.
Those attending the game at Madison Square Garden are being asked to arrive at least 2 hours before tip off because of TSA-screening procedures and security. The Secret Service also announced fans cannot bring bags into the arena.
Some are saying the Spurs are not yet ready to win an NBA championship, too young and inexperienced in pressure packed deep playoff games like this one. This calls for a reminder that the Knicks have not won an NBA championship in 53 years. They have not hosted an NBA Finals game in 27 years.
All the pressure is on the Knicks and Trump's divisive presence in the heart of the deeply blue state of New York could make things worse.
So I am on the Spurs.
Pick Released on Jun 06 at 10:10 pm
YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
| Match Up |
Pick |
Rating |
Score |
Result |
Profit |
Analysis |
| Valkyries vs Aces |
Aces -2½ -110 |
Free |
79-84 |
Win
|
100 |
Show
|
Golden State just hosted Las Vegas this past Sunday. The second year Valkyries could not defeat the defending WNBA champions losing, 91-81.
Not surprising. Golden State is an above average team that made the playoffs during its inaugural season. But the Valkyries are not at the elite level of the Aces.
The situation is not good either for Golden State. This is the Valkyries' third game in five days. They just returned to the West Coast after losing a tight, 87-84, game to the Lynx in Minnesota this past Thursday night.
The Aces are well rested. They have been idle since Tuesday.
So I find this point spread too short.
|
| Hurricanes vs Golden Knights |
UNDER 6 -120 |
Top Premium |
4-5 |
Loss |
-120 |
Show
|
After two wild come from behind victories, one by Carolina and one by Las Vegas, I am expecting a much more cautious approach for this Game 3 of the Stanley Cup finals.
The Golden Knights upset the Hurricanes, 5-4, in the opening game rallying from two goals down. The Hurricanes did the same thing in their, 4-3, overtime victory two days ago.
So there have been 9 and 7 goals scored in the two games. I don't believe it's a stretch to follow a zig-zag and believe there will be a low scoring Game 3 here with the scene shifting to Las Vegas. Keep in mind, Game 2 looked liked a dead nuts Under contest with Las Vegas leading, 2-0, with fewer than 11 minutes remaining.
The Hurricanes have been at their defensive finest on the road in the playoffs surrendering only eight goals in their six away playoff games.
The Golden Knights haven't scored more than two goals in regulation during three of their last four home playoff games. They are averaging 2.4 goals in regulation during their past five home playoff games not including an empty netter.
These two teams ranked first and second, respectively, in giving up the fewest shots on goal during the regular season. I'm looking for a tight checking game where each team keeps it simple and conservative looking to capitalize on any rare opportunities as each team knows the comeback capabilities of their opponent.
|
| Nationals vs Diamondbacks |
OVER 9 -110 |
Top Premium |
6-1 |
Loss |
-110 |
Show
|
The Nationals are the No. 1 scoring team in baseball averaging 5.3 runs per game. Yet they are only a .500 team because they have the second fewest quality starts, have committed the most errors and have the seventh highest bullpen ERA.
This combination has made them the top Over team in the National League at 39-22-3 (64 percent).
Washington starting pitcher Zack Littell has contributed his share to the Nationals' Over mark with a 5.01 ERA. The Over is 7-3-1 in Littell's last 10 starts.
The Diamondbacks rank in the top 10 in runs, batting average and slugging percentage when playing at home. They should do their share of damage against Littell and a bad Nationals bullpen.
Eduardo Rodriguez gets the start for Arizona. He has a strong 2.24 ERA, but his metrics aren't that impressive. They include a 3.64 fielding independent and 3.2 walks per nine innings.
I trust the Nationals' offense more than the 33-year-old Rodriguez, who had a 5.02 ERA last year and a 5.04 ERA in 2024.
|
SERVICE BIO
Sports gaming writer for Las Vegas Review-Journal 1984-1997. Professional handicapper since 1999. Author of three books - Las Vegas Sportsbeat, Sportsgaming Beat, Winning Fantasy Football. Taught sports betting at UNLV. Former co-host of the Sunday Night Stardust Line sports gaming radio show. Was part-time oddsmaker and analyst for Roxy Roxborough. Recognized NFL expert with 21 of 23 winning seasons.