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Stephen Nover
I have had only two losing season in pro football in my handicapping career. I have the best sources in the business thanks to more than 25 years as a sportswriter, handicapper and analyst.
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
| Match Up |
Pick |
Rating |
Score |
Result |
Profit |
Analysis |
| Bulls vs Nuggets |
UNDER 240 -110 |
Premium |
130-127 |
Loss |
-110 |
Show
|
The Nuggets have played strong defense in their last six games, giving up an average of 108.6 points per game during this span. Denver ranks first on the season in 3-point defensive percentage. The Bulls just had a wild high scoring game against the Jazz on Sunday, losing 150-147 in overtime. Now they will be playing without rest and in high altitude again.. So I don't see the Bulls looking to push pace. The Bulls rely heavily on their 3-point shooting, ranking third in the league in accuracy. But the combination of tired legs and Denver's top-ranked 3-point defense is going to make it rough for Chicago.
|
| Cowboys vs Raiders |
Cowboys -3 -120 |
Top Premium |
33-16 |
Win
|
100 |
Show
|
No need to overthink this one. Dallas is the superior team and the Raiders have very little home field advantage.
The Raiders' offensive line is broken and so is their beat up quarterback, Geno Smith. Minus injured left tackle Kolton Miller and right guard Jackson Powers-Johnson and Las Vegas has the worst offensive line in the league. It is a big reason why the Raiders entered this week scoring the second-fewest points per game in the NFL at 15.4.
The Cowboys' defense has been bad so far, but it was greatly upgraded during their bye last week. Dallas added Quinnen Williams, one of the best run stuffers in the NFL, from the Jets and linebacker Logan Wilson, who may have been the Bengals' second-best defensive player until falling out of favor with Cincinnati management. The Cowboys are further reinforced with the return of DeMarvion Overshown from injury.
The Raiders are surrendering more than 24 points per game. They're not going to be able to keep up with the Cowboys' top-five offense.
I'm also expecting the Cowboys to play an emotional, intense game following the death of one of their players, Marshawn Kneeland.
|
PICKS IN PROGRESS
Nov 18 '25, 7:00 PM
Play Type: Top Premium Pick
NCAA-F |
Western Michigan vs Northern Illinois
Play on: Northern Illinois +6½ -115 at betonline
[Lost: -$115]
Game Analysis
Points are going to matter in what shapes up to be a very low-scoring game. So I'm happy to take them with the home underdog in a battle between two good defenses and two weak offenses played in 30-some degree weather with a chance of rain.
Western Michigan averages 21.8 PPG. The Broncos have surpassed 24 points only twice.
Northern Illinois can run the ball effectively and it ranks in the top-50 defensively in scoring defense and total yards. The Huskies held San Diego State to six points at home earlier this season. That's nearly 20 points below the Aztecs' season average.
The Huskies just bashed the FBS’s worst team in UMass, 45-3, on the road last week. A significant takeaway from that game was NIU giving quarterback Jalen Macon his first FBS start. Macon played well accounting for four touchdowns while displaying excellent mobility.
Pick Released on Nov 18 at 09:39 am
SERVICE BIO
Sports gaming writer for Las Vegas Review-Journal 1984-1997. Professional handicapper since 1999. Author of three books - Las Vegas Sportsbeat, Sportsgaming Beat, Winning Fantasy Football. Taught sports betting at UNLV. Former co-host of the Sunday Night Stardust Line sports gaming radio show. Was part-time oddsmaker and analyst for Roxy Roxborough. Recognized NFL expert with 21 of 23 winning seasons.