*3 Star Free Pick on the Over* The Alabama Crimson Tide were constantly held to field goals in the red zone last week by a very talented Texas A&M defense. While Mississippi State is well coached defensively, they definitely don't have the talent on defense that Texas A&M has.

Mississippi State ranks 98th in the nation in tackling grade according to PFF. Alabama has the playmakers to make them pay for these missed tackles. The Bulldogs rank 113th in the nation in preventing explosive plays. Alabama always has elite wide receivers, and they have them once again this season. 

Mike Leach's Mississippi State team is throwing the football on 75.3% of their offensive plays so far this year. Alabama's secondary has been susceptible against the pass this year. While I think Alabama will do a pretty good job on the Bulldogs overall, I think the pace the Bulldogs will play at while trailing will give them a lot of chances to get in the end zone especially later in the game.

Alabama's offense is too talented to struggle for too long. The Crimson Tide should get on track offensively here. Mike Leach's crew should score enough to get this over the total.

Take the over.

*30-8 in college football this year. 28-6 on college football totals. 44-15 last 59 plays overall. Clients have been crushing the books. Saturday CFB Totals Trio is up as well as individual packages. Football Fanatic Pass (all NCAA FB and NFL for the season) discounted to $675 for one more day. Join in!* 

*3 Star Play Under* The Iowa Hawkeyes defense ranks second best in the country in nearly every major category. Only the Georgia Bulldogs defense has been better. Iowa has only allowed 4.02 yards per play on the year despite playing a top 10 strength of schedule so far. The Hawkeyes have been stingy against the run all year and Purdue is averaging 1.92 yards per carry in the Big Ten so far this year. Purdue has to do it through the air and this Hawkeyes defense is elite. I don't think Purdue will get many scoring chances.

Iowa's offense hasn't been very good this year. Spencer Petras is inconsistent and the Hawkeyes have relied on short fields for many of their scores. Iowa ranks 121st in yards per play in the country. Purdue ranks 3rd in the nation in defensive success rate. This Boilermakers defense has been very good so far this season.

The weather at kickoff time here will be windy with gusts of 20 mph. The winds will slow down through the game, but it should make it harder for the passing games to work.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The South Carolina Gamecocks play at a very slow pace. South Carolina ranks 109th in pace of play. The Gamecocks are a run first team as well. They have run the ball on more than 55% of their offensive plays this season. 

Vanderbilt is a weak team overall. The Commodores are even worse offensively than on defense. Vanderbilt ranks 127th in success rate on offense. They usually rely on the pass, but South Carolina's strongest unit is their secondary. It would be a surprise to see Vanderbilt have much success at all on offense in this game.

South Carolina is likely to be happy to salt the game away by running the football and using up a lot of clock. 

There is a bit of wind and a slight chance of showers here that would just be a bonus as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Air Force Falcons defense is improved this year, but I don't think it is as good as it looks on paper. Air Force has played a schedule of very weak offenses, especially in the passing game. Air Force has gone against Lafayette (FCS), Navy, Utah State, Florida Atlantic, New Mexico, and Wyoming. Only one of those teams has an above average passing attack (Utah State). Utah State won at Air Force 49-45.

Boise State doesn't play at the extremely fast pace that Utah State does, but they are 37th out of 130 in pace of play, so the Broncos do play pretty fast. Boise State is much better in the passing game than the running game. Boise State is 39th in the country in passing play success rate. 

In the last 4 meetings between these two teams Boise State has scored 44. 48, 30, and 49 points by themselves. I don't think they'll put up a huge number here, but I do think they can move the ball through the air and score here.

On the other side, Air Force is excellent in the running game. They are averaging 5.13 yards per carry on the season. Boise State is just 91st in the country in yards per carry allowed (4.43). So far this year, Boise State has allowed only 10 touchdowns on 23 trips into the red zone. That will regress to the mean. Boise State's defense can't keep bending without breaking all the time. Air Force has been very efficient in the red zone thanks to their triple option attack.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Buffalo Bulls host the Ohio Bobcats in a MAC contest on Saturday afternoon. 

The weather forecast for Saturday afternoon in Buffalo is for sustained winds of 20 mph with gusts of 35 mph. There are showers expected during this game, especially early in the game. That kind of weather really can change the game. Windy unders have been very good long term especially when there is precipitation involved as well.

Both of these teams like to run the football a lot, and in these conditions I would expect the defenses to try to load up the box to stop the run. Neither offense gets big plays all that often, so even if they move the ball down the field it should take quite a bit of time. 

If the two offenses are as one dimensional as I expect with the conditions like this, it makes the under a much more attractive wager.

Take the under here.