*3 Star Play on Twins ML* The Minnesota Twins start Kenta Maeda here, and he's been very good this season. Maeda has a 2.65 ERA and a 3.21 FIP so far this season. He has great control (only 1.59 walks per nine innings) and only 27.9% of batted balls against him have been hard hit. It's a nice combination of good control and soft contact. Maeda hasn't allowed more than 4 hits in any of his first three starts.

Eric Lauer has a 9.53 ERA so far this year (small sample size). His past doesn't suggest we should have high hopes for him. He's a guy who walks far too many guys and gives up a lot of home runs. The Twins lineup has a bunch of power. 

Minnesota hasn't hit the ball very well lately, but I trust that this group will break out of this recent slump. It's a very deep lineup. As a team the Twins have only a .267 batting average on balls in play, and that should regress to the mean (.295 or .300 likely). 

I'll lay the short price here.

Take Minnesota. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies have a history of playing a lot of high scoring games against each other. I think this will be another of those high scoring contests. 

Antonio Senzatela has good numbers so far this year, but his long term track record doesn't make me think this is a true breakout. He allows a lot of very hard contact, and he doesn't miss many bats. That is a really bad combination, especially at Coors Field. He has a career WHIP at Coors Field of 1.471. This is a day game at hot Coors Field which helps the offense. Senzatela has a brutal 6.27 ERA in day games in his career. 

Luke Weaver hasn't had any command of his pitches this year. Weaver now walks into Coors Field to take on a red hot Rockies offense. Weaver gives up tons of long balls and the heat in a day game at Coors is a negative for him there as well.

Five of the last seven games between these two teams have gone to at least 12 runs.

Take the over here.