Saint Louis will cover the number tonight as the game sets up for them to control things on steady half-court offense while getting enough stops defensively to maintain separation on the road. Saint Louis vs. Duquesne tips Tuesday, January 20, 2026 at 7:00 p.m. ET at UPMC Cooper Fieldhouse in Pittsburgh and will be shown on ESPN+. The public line is around Saint Louis -9.5 with a high total (mid 160s). This makes a lot of sense given what we know about these two teams entering the game. SLU is 17-1 while ranked around the mid-20s. Duquesne meanwhile is just 10-8 and has played like a far more volatile squad over their last few outings. Saint Louis has clear advantages on paper in roster depth and offensive consistency. When you project a game to be played at a frenetic pace like the implied total suggests (166-166.5), the better team usually comes out ahead as more possessions eliminate variance and allow for defenses to be exploited. If SLU can come out clean, avoid live-ball turnovers, and limit Duquesne foul shots and second chance points they can establish a halftime lead and expand that late as Duq only poses threats by speeding up and hoisting up jumpers. I look for a St Louis team to open this one up in the 2nd half in what will be a blowout win. 

Jim's Play: 615. St Louis (Atlantic 10 Game of the Month)

Wyoming is a live side to consider tonight because this very much looks like a one-possession Mountain West grinder in a building that consistently plays to the Cowboys’ strengths. The game tips Tuesday, January 20, 2026 at 8:30 p.m. ET at the Arena-Auditorium in Laramie, and right now the market is pricing this one basically dead even . That last point is important because you’re not asking Wyoming to murder this one, you’re asking them to hang in a game that projects close from the opening tip. Let’s dive into it. 

First off, let’s start with the venue. Playing in Laramie = dealing with altitude and the “Wyoming tempo” Wyoming plays at home tends to make visiting teams earn clean looks and bank legs late in games, exactly what you want from an underdog looking to stay inside small numbers or a short dog looking to steal outright wins. Wyoming also just had an ugly offensive performance against San Diego State which generally = tightened focus/effort on defense the next game they play, and when you’ve got a close spread game like this, one extra defensive stop or two plus a few made threes is often what separates the covers from the misses.

Boise State is a good team, but they don’t consistently play above a certain level by blowing teams out, they win with execution and defense, which tends to keep games in the “first to 70” column more often than not. That’s key because with a projected total that’s sitting in the mid-140s and a close game projected on the scoreboard, every empty possession matters more and that’s where Wyoming can use their home court physicality to their advantage: If they can box out on defense, take care of the ball on offense, and force Boise to score against a set defense, they’ll live to see the final whistle with a shot to win late.

Jim's Play: 640. Wyoming

Oregon covers the number tonight because the spread gets big enough (+10.5) and the game projects for a “Michigan State wins, but doesn’t separate enough” script in Matthew Knight Arena. The tip is at 9:00 p.m. ET on FS1 and when MSU is laying double digits you don’t need Oregon to outplay the Spartans for 40 minutes, you just need the Ducks to hang close, trade runs, and keep the door open for a late backdoor cover.

The glaring question obviously involves Oregon’s health as they’ve been playing without Nate Bittle (their leading scorer) and Jackson Shelstad (their other top scorer/biggest creator) which suppresses their offensive ceiling. But again that’s why you’re getting paid this many points and it also allows for a legitimate cover scenario: Oregon can pack it in defensively and play a methodical possession game at home, rely on hustle/playmakers and allow MSU to beat them with half-court precision as opposed to their devastating transition game. The Spartans are obviously holding teams to good numbers on D (64.2 points per game allowed), but Oregon is the type of team that can still drag it into the ’70s on a given night so long as they take care of the ball and shoot a reasonable portion of their open threes because the game won’t ever escalate to a full blown track meet if Oregon is “packing it in.” As long as they stay within striking distance for 30 minutes a few made shots late against a spread like this is all you need to bust +10.5 even if MSU is the far superior team.

Jim's Play: 645. Oregon

I think UCLA can survive tonight because the number has Purdue winning by two full possessions on the road and this is the type of game where the Bruins can stay in it defensively, controlling the pace and utilizing their home court advantage at Pauley Pavilion. Tipoff is at 10:00 p.m. ET (7: 00 p.m. PT) on Peacock, and the line opened with Purdue around 5.5–6 points with a total in the mid 140s. The spread is key because UCLA does not need to outplay Purdue for 40 minutes to win this bet, they just need to avoid getting blown out during stretches and force Purdue to earn their points on the break and everything else they receive in the half court. This is also a favorable matchup for UCLA to at least stay close because Purdue is playing their third game through Los Angeles travel (they’ve been in road-game mode the past few days) and their motor, Braden Smith, has been battling a knee ailment. Injury flare-ups can pop up late in games when teams are battling physically and playing a game of chess on each possession. If UCLA can force Purdue to shoot from outside, avoid giving them easy transition buckets and make this a lower-possession game where each team struggles to score and has to earn their good looks, the Bruins have every opportunity to keep it within a possession or two late, and that’s ideal when you’re laying 5.5/6 points at home.

Jim's Play: 662. UCLA 

Oklahoma State easily covers the +8.5 tonight. Both offenses should keep this game in the “one or two runs” type of range, and TCU hasn’t been winning games by much lately. Oklahoma State can score enough to stay in games for 40 minutes: they average 88.2 PPG while shooting 48% from the field. They also aren’t led by just one player: Anthony Roy scores 17.9 PPG and they have a real point guard who can create chances for others in Kanye Clary, who dishes out 4.9 APG. Oklahoma State gets to the free-throw line at a high rate too (they average 25.7 FTA and 19.4 FTM), which is how underdogs cover big numbers on the road. Combine that with TCU’s recent game script trend of close losses (they’ve had four straight in their last-five games) and potential availability questions inside (Mouhamed Diallo OUT, Vianney Salatchoum QUESTIONABLE), which is crucial against an Oklahoma State team that attacks the rim. Bottom line: this is an easy call. Oklahoma State’s scoring combined with free throw attempts will allow them to stay close enough to where a late-game comeback or layup is always possible inside of +8.5.

Jim's Play: 637. Oklahoma State

Chicago should be viewed as in play to win and cover tonight because this game projects as one that favors the Bulls to win the paint/possession battle and exploit a Clippers rotation that will be missing players. The tipoff is Tuesday, Jan. 20, 2026 at 8:00 p.m. ET (7:00 p.m. CT) at the United Center.  Chicago has Zach Collins listed as out and Josh Giddey questionable per the NBA’s official morning injury report. The Clippers have yet to submit their report as of this writing, but other injury tracking sites have Kawhi Leonard out for Los Angeles alongside rotational players Bogdan Bogdanovic and Derrick Jones Jr. If Kawhi is ruled out again, that hurts L.A.’s ability to create two-way buckets late in games when shot creation and attacking set defenses becomes crucial.

As far as how the game should be played goes, Chicago has a pretty simple game plan: play through Nikola Vuevi to create high percentage looks at the rim and on short rolls, keep Coby White/Ayo Dosunmu attacking to force the Clippers defense to stay on its heels, and force Los Angeles to win with jumpers. The Clippers will be coming in with plenty of momentum, but they also heavily feature James Harden on offense (including shooting a whopping 27 free throws in their last game), which means one player is tasked with creating a majority of their offense on the road. When that’s the case, there’s always a chance the home team can out-physical their opponent in the fourth quarter and run away with the game thanks to easier buckets and more balance scoring. Chicago’s juice at home plus the expectation they hold an edge in paint/possession plays should allow them to control this game for long stretches. If the Clippers are again shorthanded at the wing, the Bulls should be able to turn a close game into a blowout in the closing minutes.

Jim's Play: 506. Bulls