AFC West Predictions
The AFC West division is along the same line as the AFC East. Just as the Patriots will run away with that division, the San Diego Chargers will run away with the AFC West in a landslide. Previous contenders in the Chiefs and Broncos have only taken a step backwards, while the Raiders can’t be taken too seriously as indicated by their 19-61 record over the past five seasons. Although the Raiders will be improved this year, they still will be no match for the Chargers as you will see with our 2008 AFC West predictions below.
This time last year the Chargers were scratching their heads of a shaky coaching move, with Norv Turner replacing Marty Schottenheimer. This year, the Chargers don’t enter the season with any question as to whether or not they have the right coach. The Chargers are legitimate contenders for another deep run into the playoffs, and for once, anything less than advancing to the Super Bowl would be a disappointment. LaDanian Tomlinson is at the summit of his career and Philip Rivers should return healthy following serious knee surgery.
The defense is stingy, built around forcing turnovers. The front office didn’t alter the roster much, and there was no need to after the Chargers advanced to the AFC Championship Game last year. The Chargers did lose a few key players in fullback Lorenzo Neal to free agency, safety Marlon McCree to the Broncos and nickel back Drayton Florence to the Jaguars. But replacements were found in-house or via 2008 NFL Draft. The Chargers have won three of the last four AFC West titles and winning the division this year is basically a foregone conclusion. The Chargers have much higher expectations in 2008.
2.) Oakland Raiders
As long as owner Al Davis and head coach Lane Kiffin can hold their truce the Raiders should have no problem improving on last year’s 4-12 record. Davis is banking on it, literally. He invested more than $220 million in the offseason and won’t be satisfied with small gains in the standings. Second-year quarterback JeMarcus Russell is the unquestioned starter, but Oakland has surrounded him with some help. Javon Walker gives Russell a legitimate No. 1 target after coming over from the Broncos in the offseason. Darren McFadden is a breakaway threat that will change how defenses approach stopping the Raiders.
Defensively, the Raiders are built to stop the pass and possess one of the best cornerback tandems in the NFL with Nnamdi Asomugha and DeAngelo Hall, who Davis obtained in a trade with the Falcons. Losing defensive tackle Warren Sapp in retirement hurts, and the team didn’t do enough in the offseason to address problems stopping the run. That could come back to haunt the Raiders, especially in an AFC West division that solely believes on the run-first philosophy across the board. Still, all this talent the Raiders acquired in the offseason can’t go ignore. They are now a serious contender to make the playoffs if all the pieces fall into place.
3.) Denver Broncos
Owner Pat Bowlen is firmly behind coach Mike Shanahan despite a 7-9 record and a second straight season without a playoff birth. Still, there’s serious pressure to get back to the playoffs. Denver has its quarterback for years to come in Jay Cutler, but many other question marks remain. Receiver Brandon Marshall must recover from self-inflicted injury before the season starts while center Tom Nalen and guard Ben Hamilton try and come back from injury. Rookie left tackle Ryan Clady will be trying to protect Cutler’s blind side, a tough task to ask of any rookie in this league.
Defensively, the Broncos have nowhere to go but up. They gave up the fifth-most points in franchise history with 409 points allowed last season. They dumped their defensive boss, coach Jim Bates, and added a new Boss, linebacker Boss Bailey, Champ Bailey’s younger brother. The Broncos’ biggest move this offseason may be their decision not to re-sign their most reliable player in kicker Jason Elam, the team’s all-time leading scorer. There was plenty of change, but still it looks like there’s a ton of work to do in Denver if the Broncos are to compete with AFC West stalwart San Diego. The Broncos will find out how good they are in a hurry, with a road game at Oakland on Monday night in Week 1 and a home meeting with the Chargers in Week 2. We don’t think Bronco fans are going to enjoy their 0-2 start.
An extreme youth movement means a trip to the playoffs is an extreme longshot. Realistically, the Chiefs are pointing toward 2009 as the season where they can become serious playoff contenders again. They will judge this season as a success or failure not by their record but whether or not they can make strides and be more competitive as the season progresses. New offensive coordinator Chan Gailey will be asked to revive this offense in Brodie Croyle’s first full season as a starter.
Larry Johnson has to return to his Pro Bowl form after a broken foot kept him out for two months last year. The defense must overcome the loss of Jared Allan to the Vikings and the 15.5 sacks that came with him from a year ago. Herm Edwards is probably safe to coach one more season in 2009 no matter what happens this year with all the youth. They Chiefs must improve as the season wares and be very competitive by season’s end for Edwards to be safe. But don’t expect Kansas City to be very competitive in the AFC West race in 2008.
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